Gold at (1:30 am est) $1215.00 UP $10.70
silver at $17.15: UP 15 CENTS
Access market prices:
Gold: $1218.20
Silver: $17.25
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
.
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai FIRST morning fix Jan 23/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1230.69
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1218.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $12.69
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1226.20
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1215.90 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
THE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $10.40
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Fix: Jan 23/2017: 5:30 am est: $1213.75 (NY: same time: $1213.25 (5:30AM)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Second fix Jan 23.2017: 10 am est: $1212.85 (NY same time: $1212.80 (10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
end
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ. TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1195 FOR 119,500 OZ (3.71695 TONNES)
For silver:
NOTICES FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH FOR SILVER: 0 NOTICE(s) FOR nil OZ. TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR; 559 FOR 2,795,000 OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 2076 contracts UP to 174,668 with respect to FRIDAY’S TRADING. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .873 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 124% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE JANUARY FRONT MONTH IN SILVER: 0 NOTICES FILED FOR nil OZ.
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 3,565 contracts WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE GOLD ($3.40 with FRIDAY’S trading ).The total gold OI stands at 478,792 contracts.
we had 10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
We had a big changes in tonnes of gold at the GLD/this time a deposit of 1.19 tonnes
the drainage of gold to China has now stopped!!
Inventory rests tonight: 809.15 tonnes
.
SLV
we had no changes in silver into the SLV:
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 338.356 million oz
.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver RISE by 2076 contracts UP to 174,668 AS SILVER ROSE 3 CENTS with FRIDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by 3,565 contracts UP to 478,972 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD OF $3.40 (FRIDAY’S TRADING)
(report Harvey).
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
REPORT ON JAPAN SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA
b) RPORT ON JAPAN
c) REPORT ON CHINA
i)My goodness: China manipulates its stock market on a daily basis. How we see that their Carl Icahn,Xu Xiang, was sentenced to 5 1/2 yrs in prison for manipulating their stock market… go figure…
( zero hedge)
ii)China ready for “war” with Trump policies. They state that capitalism is in trouble and thus they must be ready to assume “world leadership”. Simply amazing…
( zero hedge)
4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)Germany/Handelsblatt
The German Press has finally realized that Trump is declaring economic war against all nations with its protectionist policies. They stated that the inaugural speech was a “Declaration of War”
( zero hedge)
ii) ECB
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Turkey
Turkey is now in its final stages of having Erdogan as a dictator for life. The only way he can be removed is by a coup
( Mish Shedlock/MishTalk)
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
i)Trump ready this morning to sign executive order to renegotiate NAFTA: down goes the Mexican Peso and the Cdn Loonie. He also stated that he was going to abandon the TPP”
( zero hedge)
ii)The Mexican Peso tumbles as the Mexican President wants that he will take immediate action against the USA. To tell you the truth, he only has to do one thing which will cause tremendous grief to the USA: cut off silver shipments to the USA
7. OIL ISSUES
Russia boosted exports by 24% to China and clearly have taken market share away from Saudi Arabia. It seems that the Russians have supplied oil and in return they take yuan. The yuan is then used to purchase gold (in yuan) at the Shanghai gold exchange (SGE). This is totally putting a nail in the petrodollar scheme and thus the dollar.
( zerohedge)
8. EMERGING MARKETS
none today
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Total gold reserves into Russia rise to a record high 1614 tonnes, an increase of almost 200 tonnes this year, average of 16.6 tonnes per month. However, we added 0 oz in December as Nov.totals were 1,614.00 tonnes.
ii)James Turk correctly states that the gold price suppression scheme is vital to government currencies but in the end the suppression will fail
a must read..
( James Turk/Wealth Research group/GATA)
iii)The collusion and fraud in the gold market is causing the LME’s share to falter:
( Hobson/Reuters/GATA)
iv)Chris Powell states that the currency regime in place since 1945 has always been “America first:
( Chris Powell/GATA)
v)Even though Ireland only holds 6 tonnes, it is secretive about its gold reserves
( Ronan Manly/GATA)
vi)Chinese bitcoin companies slap on fees equal to .2% per value of the transaction. This should slow down the price rise of Bitcoin. However Bitcoin has caught on in Japan which have now seen the monthly volumes soar by 8900%
( zero hedge)
10.USA STORIES
i)Early trading Monday:
( zero hedge)
ii)Late Friday night:
Trump wastes no time as he signs his first executive order to ease the burden of Obamacare
( zero hedge)
iii)Obama’s second executive order/Friday night
The FHA’s fee cut, initiated by Obama in the last day’s executive order was cancelled as it exposed the taxpayer to a dwindling FHA account.
( zero hedge)
iv)Monday
Trump warns that the USA is going ahead with a border tax as well as cut regulations by 75%
( zero hedge)
v)The following is a terrific commentary from Pepe Escobar who gives us a background on how the next 4 to 8 years will play out re Russia and China:
( Pepe Escobar)
vi)Trump is busy this morning: he signed 3 executive orders:
A) the uSA will withdraw from TPP
B) they will freeze federal hiring
C)we will now limit overseas abortion funding.
( zero hedge)
vii)This is an excellent commentary from Dave Kranzler as he describes what will happen to the movement of single family homes once interest rates rise
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)
viii)Late this afternoon, Trump wins big as the unions now endorse his policies. The unions have always supported the Democrats and this is now a big shift away from the norm. Trump is on a roll!!
( zero hedge)
ix)At 4:30 the USA dollar dumped against all currencies when Sec Treasury to be Mnuchin warns of an excessively strong dollar
( zero hedge)
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 3,565 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 478,792 AS THE PRICE OF GOLD ROSE $3.40 with YESTERDAY’S trading. We are now in the contract month of JANUARY and it is one of the poorest deliveries of the year.
With the front month of January we had a LOSS of 2 contract(s) DOWN to 70. We had 10 notices filed YESTERDAY so we GAINED 8 contract(s) or AN ADDITIONAL 800 oz WILL STAND for gold in this non active delivery month of January. For the next big active delivery month of February we had a LOSS of 4,564 contracts DOWN to 188,792.(feb 2016: 168,000 contracts). March had a LOSS of 6 contracts as it’s OI is now 919. We are now ahead with respect to OI when we compare data for open interest this year vs last year with the same amount of time to expire:
We had 10 notice(s) filed upon today for 1000 oz
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE by 2076 contracts FROM 172,592 UP TO 174,668 AS the price of silver ROSE 3 CENTS with YESTERDAY’S trading. We are moving further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016: (224,540).
We are now in the non active delivery month of January and here the OI ROSE by 63 contract(s) RISING TO 172. We had 2 notice(s) filed on yesterday so we gained 65 silver contracts or an additional 325,000 oz will stand in this delivery month of January. The next non active month of February saw the OI FALL by 47 contract(s) FALLING TO 214.
The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI rose by 1127 contracts up to 133,168 contracts.
We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL oz for the January contract.
VOLUMES: for the gold comex
Today the estimated volume was 260,150 contracts which is good.
Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 275,159 contracts which is very good
volumes on gold are getting higher!
Gold | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
nil OZ
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz |
nil
|
No of oz served (contracts) today |
10 notice(s)
1000 oz
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
60 contracts
6000 oz
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
1195 notices
119,500 oz
3.7169 tonnes
|
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | 3000.000 oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | 4,806,084.1 oz |
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
Silver | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
650,919.310 0z
Brinks
Scotia
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil oz
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
971,489.243 oz
JPM
Scotia
|
No of oz served today (contracts) |
0 CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
172 contracts
(860,000 oz)
|
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 559 contracts (2,795,000 oz) |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 19,833,5365 oz |
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Jan 23/a big change/this time a deposit of 1.19 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 809.15 tonnes. The drainage of gold from the GLD to Shanghai has now stopped!
Jan 20/no changes in gold inventory a the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 19/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 18/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 807.96 tonnes
Jan 17/17/a deposit of 2.96 tonnes of gold/inventory at the GLD rests at 807.96 tonnes. I guess there is no more gold inventory to sent to C+Shanghai
Jan 13/17/there were no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
Jan 12/2017/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
Jan 11/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
JAN 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes
JAN 9/A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 805.00 TONNES
end
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
end
Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for MONDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE
Gold Price To 2 Month High As Fiery Trump Declares World Order
Gold price to 2 month high as fiery Trump declares New American Order
– ‘Trumponomics’: Politics and economic policy in 140 characters
– The ‘intelligence’ according to Trump
– Trump, Putin and Russia – the great bromance
– Trump – Bull in a China shop
– Trade and currency wars with China and other nations
– Trump – Fan of gold and golden tweets
– Conclusion – Trump may be the ‘Golden Ticket’
by Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne
On Friday Donald J Trump became the 45th President of the United States of America.
Gold prices were surprisingly muted on Friday but did begin to rise towards the end of trading and rose from below $1,200 to over $1,212 per ounce before closing slightly lower at $,207.60 per ounce.
Gold is looking very healthy technically and has risen for four weeks in a row and reached a two month high this morning at $1,219.43 per ounce – its highest since November 22nd. According to Bloomberg holdings in gold-backed ETFs climbed for the fifth day in a row by 0.9 tons.
Gold is gaining on increasing investor concern about the Trump Presidency and uncertainty regarding what is set to be his radically different term in office. The dollar has continued to weaken as markets prepare for major changes to US trade, economic and foreign policies.
The British pound has hit a five week high, along with the yen and 10 year US Futures. Shares fell across most markets, the dollar fell 0.5%, which RBS Capital markets blame on “the lack of economic policy detail in President Trump’s inauguration speech coupled with concerns over his potential protectionist stance.”
“The market is now worrying about what would come out from the new administration,” Bob Takai, chief executive officer and president of Sumitomo Corp. Global Research Co., told Bloomberg. “In this kind of very unforeseeable environment, people want to buy gold,” he said, adding the biggest factor was the strength of the dollar and the outlook for interest rates.
With Obama and Bernanke destroying the value of the dollar, gold and real estate should continue to rise in value.
More on Trump’s like of gold and golden tweets below
Trump’s fiery inauguration speech was a significant step away from the more presidential-tones of his November acceptance speeches. It was full of protectionism, promises to ‘hire’ and ‘buy’ American and strident nationalism.
The weekend was not full of any shocking declarations such as currency manipulation or border taxes, however Trump did tweet yesterday that he would be sitting down with Canada and Mexico to discuss NAFTA.
Across the world, most people aren’t sure what to think. Markets seem disappointed that Trump’s inauguration speech contained few details on fiscal policy, tax cuts and infrastructure spending. For the first time following a Presidential election we are more likely to feel uncertain post inauguration than we were in the run-up to the vote.
With Trump we are facing something new and radically different. His tweets are not only emotional and reactive but the subject of them combined with his general message go against the status quo, or international order (of the West) that we have seen supported in political America for so long.
The status quo opinions on Russia, free trade, strong dollar, China and war – has long been supported throughout Western politics, regardless of party leanings since the end of World War Two.
Politicians, policy makers, markets and the general public around the world are now having to come to terms with what this might mean. And whilst they figure it out, we expect heightened uncertainty.
For gold investors this is likely good news in both the long and medium term. We expect to see severe volatility due to Trump’s unexpected actions and tweets. Markets will be very nervous and wait with baited breath to see how the affected party, be it the EU, China, Russia or Congress, decide how to react.
‘Trumponomics’: Politics and economic policy in 140 characters
It was generally expected that we would see markets pull back in the week running up to the inauguration as confusion tends to surround anticipated policy from the new administration.
That is precisely what has happened, but it was exacerbated by both Trump’s direct comments to the press and his own tweets. Trump’s tweets and comments, clearly have an impact on sentiment. GM, Boeing and Toyota have all felt the wrath of the market following a Trump Tweet.
And, when companies thought it could not get much worse for them, this week Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the US Dollar was too strong, breaking the unwritten rule that Presidents do not comment on the currency.
The dollar headed south following the comments. This surprised markets who were getting used to the Trump Trade that had seen equity markets and the dollar embark on a rally since the election result.
On a political note, Trumps’ comments to Bild on NATO being obsolete have put the first military alliance that combines both Second World War agreements and post-Soviet Union countries on an awkward and unstable position. Comments against NATO flies in the face of US foreign policy.
Trump reconfirmed his views, by tweeting “My statement on NATO being obsolete and disproportionately too expensive (and unfair) for the U.S. are now, finally, receiving plaudits!”
The above is just a recent reminder of the power of a Trump statement and that his favoured medium of communication, one that is un-vetted and seemingly unadvised, continues to take some getting used to.
There seems to be some thinking that once Trump takes office, the tweets will calm down.
Trump has no plans to stop, telling the Sunday Times, “…I can put out Twitter — and it’s not 140, it’s now 280 — I can go bing bing bing… and they put it on…”
Everyone is aware of how Trump is changing how Presidents will rule and make statements, Wei Li, iShares head of investment strategy EMEA, said in a recent interview with TradngFloor:
“There are some really unexpected things happening with the Trump administration and there are no doubt a lot more people paying attention to Twitter at 2am in the night…We are operating in a very different environment where markets are reacting and adapting to changes that have not been seen for a good decade or more.”
The CIA’s outgoing director, John Brennan, has also warned Trump that his tweets are not only bad for markets but also for national security:
“Spontaneity is not something that protects national security interests…So therefore when he [Trump] speaks or when he reacts, just make sure he understands that the implications and impact on the United States could be profound.”
In all likelihood, Brennan’s advice will not be heeded by Trump.
The ‘intelligence’ according to Trump
John Brennan had been feeling Trump’s wrath for a long time. The new President has long criticised the intelligence services in the US, at one point suggesting Brennan was the ‘leaker of fake news’ following the Golden Shower story.
Trump had previously likened the intelligence services the Nazi regime, tweeting
“Intelligence agencies should never have allowed this fake news to “leak” into the public. One last shot at me. Are we living in Nazi Germany?”
As Zerohedge pointed out recently, no president since JF Kennedy has dared to take on America’s seemingly untouchable intelligence agency. The website writes, “If his refusal to take intelligence briefings, or follow CIA advice is serious, then serious consequences will follow. If Trump is serious about peace with Putin when they insist on war, there will be a problem.”
Trump has already announced that he will be replacing Brennan with Mike Pompeo, something which may be seen as a smart move for Trump, but whether it is so for the rest of the world, time will tell. Either way there is a changing of the guard from deep within the national security state that has, until now, been widely listened to when it comes to geopolitical, international and domestic threats.
Trump’s lack of desire to toe the status quo party line is something intelligence services around the world will seemingly have to get used to. This has become acutely apparent when it comes to matter of Russian relations, which was what triggered the most recent bout between Trump and the intelligence community.
Trump, Putin and Russia – the great bromance
Trump’s desire to improve relations with Putin and the Kremlin is the most glaring difference between his ideas and those of the status quo, and alongside his thoughts on NATO has much of the Western community nervous.
When CIA Director John Brennan responded to Trump’s comments comparing the US Intelligence Agencies to Nazi Germany he not only said that the then President-elect had crossed the line but also warned him about Russia:
“Mr. Trump has to understand that absolving Russia of various actions it has taken in the past number of years is a road that he, I think, needs to be very, very careful about moving down …”
It wasn’t until last week that Trump admitted it was likely that Russia had been involved in cyber-attacks and hacking, having previously expressed doubts over US Intelligence Agencies assertions in this regard.
A US Intelligence Report, seen by both outgoing President Obama and President Trump alleged that Russia had tried to sway the outcome of the 2016 election. However, there was little hard evidence and it did not state if the measures specifically had been successful.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump vowed to improve relations with Putin and Moscow. He stated that the sanctions imposed by Obama last month, may be removed in exchange for support in fighting terrorism and meeting other US goals.
He reiterated his desire to work with Russia again in an interview with the Sunday Times, claiming that he wanted both the nuclear powers of the US and Russia to be
“reduced very substantially…They have sanctions on Russia — let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia. For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it.”
In the same interview in The Times, Trump also criticised Putin and his country, for their involvement in Syria’s war, describing it as “a very bad thing” that had led to a “terrible humanitarian situation.”
It is no secret that Poland and Finland have been preparing themselves, with some international support, for a possible attack from Russia. Whilst neither Russia nor Europe have commented directly on any potential threat, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov says “threatens our interests, our security”.
Trump’s comments on both Russia and China, and apparent planned-policies regarding them, are very different to current foreign policies stances of the U.S., the EU, the UK and NATO.
Trump – a bull in a China shop
At various points during Trump’s campaign he managed to rile China, accusing them of currency manipulation and of ‘raping American jobs’. Then, he really made sure they were paying attention and increased tensions even more when he accepted a call from Taiwan’s President, on his birthday.
For just some of Trump’s issues with China, it’s worth looking at yet more of his tweets:
January 3: China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!
December 18: We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!
December 17: China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters – rips it out of water and takes it to China in unprecedented act.
December 5: Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into…their country (the U.S. doesn’t tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don’t think so!
Anti-China and anti-free trade and globalisation rhetoric is something that is becoming louder, not just because of Trump’s victory but also because of discontent in the EU. China is likely to be one of the biggest victims of this change in trade, and a trade and currency war may be on the cards.
Prior to the election Trump signaled that he would label China a currency manipulator, whether he will do so or not is obviously unknown, but he has still drawn attention to their currency. In a recent interview Trump complained about the strong US dollar and China’s weak yuan.
“Our companies can’t compete with them [Chinese companies] now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us”. In the same interview Trump said that China’s currency was “dropping like a rock.”
The election of Donald Trump has seen the US Dollar climb to 13 year highs and made gains of nearly 5% in the period since November. But now, just one week ahead of the inauguration, the President has signaled that he will be dropping the strong dollar policy.
It isn’t just China’s currency that Trump is likely to have a say on, in 140 characters or perhaps more. Some pundits believe is about to upset China by not only announcing his intention to abandon the one-China policy but also to declare the move by China to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, as illegal.
China remains unimpressed, the English-language paper China Daily wrote, ““If Trump is determined to use this gambit in taking office, a period of fierce, damaging interactions will be unavoidable, as Beijing will have no choice but to take off the gloves.”
“China and the U.S. can find ways to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation,” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Sun Jiwen said Thursday at a briefing in Beijing. “Bilateral trade and economic cooperation have made the two nations inseparable since relations were established more than three decades ago, and that’s reinforced every day”, Sun said.
According to Jim Rickards, this anti-China rhetoric could lead to a new currency war between the US and China.
President Xi Jinping, is also aware of the risks, speaking at his first address at Davos, China’s President spoke against businesses and political elites engaging in trade wars and protectionism:
“Pursuing protectionism is like locking yourself in a dark room, which would seem to escape the wind and rain, but also block out the sunshine and air…Waging a trade war will only cause injury and loss to both sides.”
Trade and currency wars with China and other nations, a civil war with Democrats and much of civil society in the U.S., combined with a weakening or dismantling of NATO, all in all points to uncertainty and volatility on a grand scale.
Trump – Fan of gold and golden tweets
We know (and not just from his taste in interiors) that Trump is a fan of gold and he is aware of the role in plays in both dollar hegemony and currency wars.
Tweets over the last four to five years have shown an interest in the gold price and trade, tweeting in 2012:
“With Obama and Bernanke destroying the value of the dollar, gold and real estate should continue to rise in value.”
He is also not a fan of QE, tweeting in 2011 “The Fed continues to flood the market with US dollars. Wrong move.” and has since commented on gold purchases by China and Russia.
But what about the gold price? As we explained last week, the fundamentals supporting the gold market look good, regardless of who is about to take the US Presidency.
This year the gold price has already climbed by around 5%, fuelled by what appears to be a perfect storm coming together of Trump worries, Brexit angst and brewing tensions on trade and globalisation, generally.
Axel Merk told Bloomberg that uncertainty will support gold, “We have no idea what’s going to happen with some of Trump’s policies — everybody is a little nervous,” said Axel Merk, San Francisco-based founder of Merk Investments LLC, pointed out that
“Gold is relatively undervalued and will push higher.”
We concur and believe that the next four years of the Trump Presidency will be good for gold. If we assume gold takes a similar journey to that it took following Obama’s inauguration, we can expect:
A similar performance in the coming month would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,392/oz.
A similar performance in the coming year would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,555/oz
According to Bloomberg, gold has averaged gains of almost 15% in the inauguration years since the 1970s. It has made gains in five of the last seven inaugurations, and declined only in the year of Reagan’s.
Whilst events regarding China, Russia, NATO and even potential Civil War are unknown in how they will play out, one thing we can be fairly sure of is that Donald Trump is likely to preside over a significant budget deficit.
Conclusion – Trump may be the ‘Golden Ticket’
Whilst the run up to Trump’s inauguration has proven to be box office viewing, it is important to tune out the noise surrounding the short-term hype and to consider the real world consequences of his Presidency for investors and savers. We should be aware that what he says/tweets may impact and have lasting results, around the world.
The golden rule of negotiation: He who has the gold makes the rules.
A man who is against many of the financial, economic and foreign policies of most Western nations, has been democratically elected to run the West’s most powerful country. Policy may now be issued via Twitter and with little consultation.
Expect some serious volatility and prepare by diversifying and owning safe haven gold which has protected investors and savers from economic and political uncertainty in recent times and throughout the ages.
Russia’s Gold Reserves Top 1,614 Tonnes – Central Bank
The amount of monetary gold in Russia’s international reserves grew by 14.7 percent [199 tonnes] and totals 51.9 million troy ounces [1,614.27 tonnes], according to the statement of the Bank of Russia.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia’s gold reserves grew by 14 percent in 2016 to 1,614.3 metric tons, the Bank of Russia said on Friday.
“The amount of monetary gold in Russia’s international reserves grew by 14.7 percent [199 tonnes] and totals 51.9 million troy ounces [1,614.27 tonnes], the financial regulator said in a report.
end
Chris Powell states that the currency regime in place since 1945 has always been “America first:
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)
Chris Powell: Currency regime has run the world for ‘America first’ since 1945
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2017-01-23 15:58. Section: Daily Dispatches
Trump’s Megalomaniac Delusion: ‘Now I Am the People’
By Chris Powell
Journal Inquirer, Manchester, Connecticut
Monday, January 23, 2017
http://www.journalinquirer.com/opinion/chris_powell/trump-s-megalomaniac…
President Trump’s inaugural address was based on the ridiculous conceit that he somehow had received a mandate for running second in the election with just 46 percent of the vote, almost 3 million votes behind the leader, who didn’t do so well herself. With his ascension, Trump said, “we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another, or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington and giving it back to you, the American people.”
Or as the megalomanical politician invented by the Firesign Theater in 1970 said, “Now I am the people.”
Continuing to pander, Trump offered another ridiculous conceit — that “a small group in our nation’s capital” has been cheating all the good people of the country.
In fact, while the country purports to hate Congress, it loves its own congressman, almost always re-electing him because he does his best to cheat every other congressman’s district for the benefit of his own. That is, nearly everyone is on the government gravy train one way or another but still fashions himself exploited.
“We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country have disappeared over the horizon,” the new president said. “The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed across the entire world. … From this moment on, it’s going to be America first.”
Except that since 1945, when, by international agreement, the U.S. dollar was installed as the world reserve currency, the world itself has been run on an “America first” basis. That’s because for international trade the world has been required to use currency issued only by the U.S. government, allowing the United States to run huge trade deficits, thereby essentially taxing the world for using the dollar so Americans can consume far more than they produce.
This currency arrangement is a primary cause of the decline of simple manufacturing in the United States, about which Trump complained during his campaign and again in his inaugural address.
“America first”? It has been a long time since it was otherwise.
The protectionism and tariffs the new president seemed to advocate in his address will not be good for the complex manufacturing in which the United States now excels. Protectionism and tariffs will be reciprocated and may be as bad for Boeing and Pratt & Whitney as they may be good for Airbus and Rolls Royce.
Trump’s address included fair grievances: “Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities. Rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation. An education system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of knowledge. And the crime and gangs and drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. … We have defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own.”
But Trump’s own response to these problems was only the most delusional megalomania. “This American carnage stops right here and stops right now,” the new president said before hurrying off to march in the inaugural parade and dance at the inaugural balls.
A new week has begun and of course the “carnage” has not stopped or even slowed, for mere proclamations are powerless against problems arising from mistaken policies of long standing. The country may not even be capable of addressing these problems while it is as divided politically, philosophically, and socially as Weimar Germany was divided between Nazis and Communists.
Indeed, as the tribune of America’s populist right was taking his oath, just a few blocks away the neo-Stalinist left was already rioting, smashing windows and burning cars.
—–
Chris Powell is managing editor of the Journal Inquirer.
end
James Turk correctly states that the gold price suppression scheme is vital to government currencies but in the end the suppression will fail
a must read..
(courtesy James Turk/Wealth Research group/GATA)
Gold price suppression is vital to govt. currencies but will fail, Turk says
Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2017-01-21 15:17. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:16a ET Saturday, January 21, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In an interview with Wealth Research Group, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk explains why gold price suppression is essential to the defense of government-issued currencies and why the current suppression scheme seems likely to fail soon. Turk credits GATA for exposing the scheme worldwide. The interview is a half hour long and can be heard at You Tube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij4c__Qnnio&t=2s
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Nothing but crooks!!
(courtesy Murphy/London’s Financial Times)
High-frequency trading radio masts criticized by planners
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2017-01-22 20:24. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Hannah Murphy
Financial Times, London
Sunday, January 22, 2017
U.S. high-frequency traders aiming to build radio towers taller than the Shard in a tiny village in the English countryside have been criticized by local planning officials ahead of a crucial council meeting next week.
Three traders are behind plans to build two vast masts in Kent to clip milliseconds off trading speeds between London and Frankfurt, but the size of the towers has attracted local opposition.
The fate of the masts will be decided at a Dover council meeting on Thursday, which will judge whether to overrule residents’ protests and a report last week by a local planning official that they would damage views of the landscape, which contains the remnants of a Roman fort.
The standoff highlights the lengths to which electronic traders are prepared to go to receive valuable trading data before rivals, by beaming information over hundreds of miles using radio microwaves. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/048c59a0-df26-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce
END
The collusion and fraud in the gold market is causing the LME’s share to falter:
(courtesy Hobson/Reuters/GATA)
LME’s pitch for share of gold market faces bumpy ride
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2017-01-23 01:35. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Peter Hobson and Pratima Desai
Reuters
Monday, January 23, 2017
LONDON — Fears of inflexibility and rising costs are sapping enthusiasm for the London Metal Exchange’s new suite of gold contracts, potentially leaving the exchange reliant on the threat of an increasing regulatory burden to drive uptake.
London’s $5 trillion-a-year gold trade has, along with the rest of the City of London, found itself under increased scrutiny since the Libor scandal, with U.S. lawsuits alleging rigging against the banks that set bullion prices.
Regulatory pressure sparked the fall of the near century-old telephone-based gold fix, or benchmark pricing, which was replaced by an electronic alternative in 2015, and reform of the management structure of the London Bullion Market Association.
The LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd., says its contracts, which include spot, futures, and options, would bring price-setting out of the back rooms of banks by creating a published forward pricing curve for gold and sliver out to five years.
It also says the contracts’ central clearing would free the banks and brokers that dominate London’s over-the-counter gold market from increasingly onerous capital requirements, creating savings that could be passed to others in the industry.
But a source at a major gold trading bank said: “There’s a lot of caution and probably outright scepticism from market participants whether this will add anything but another cost to the bottom line.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Even though Ireland only holds 6 tonnes, it is secretive about its gold reserves
(courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)
Ronan Manly: Ireland conceals basic information about its gold reserves
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2017-01-23 16:20. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:20a ET Monday, January 23, 2017
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold researcher Ronan Manly today begins a two-part series of essays showing how Ireland’s central bank is striving to conceal basic information about the country’s gold reserves. Manly’s essay is headlined “Ireland’s Monetary Gold Reserves: High-Level Secrecy vs. Freedom of Information — Part I” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/irelands-monetary-gold-res…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Chinese bitcoin companies slap on fees equal to .2% per value of the transaction. This should slow down the price rise of Bitcoin. However Bitcoin has caught on in Japan which have now seen the monthly volumes soar by 8900%
(courtesy zero hedge)
As China Slaps Fees On Bitcoin Trades, Japan Monthly Volumes Soar by 8,900%
There is one reason why bitcoin quickly became the darling of HFT and various high speed algo traders operating out of China and the rest of the world: domestic transactions were “frictionless”, as there were no fees on buys or sells. Until last night, that is, because as China’s three largest bitcoin exchanges, BTCC, Huobi and OkCoin, all said in separate statements on their websites late on Sunday, starting Tuesday they will charge traders a flat fee of 0.2% per transaction. This is only the latest fallout from the recent crackdown on Chinese bitcoin exchanges whose activities have drawn increased scrutiny from the central bank.
Each of the statements said assessing fees will “further curb market manipulation and extreme volatility”.
One of the reasons why China has dominated bitcoin trading volumes in recent years, in addition to the US of the digital currency to bypass capital controls, has been the absence of trading fees which encouraged volumes and boosted demand at Chinese bitcoin exchanges. However, when the price of bitcoin soared to near-record highs – as this website predicted would happen in the summer of 2015 – driven by a stampede of Chinese momentum chasers, it attracted attention from Chinese regulators. Helping the surge, was the collapse in the yuan which weakened 6.6% against the dollar, its worst performance since 1994 as local savers sought the relative “safety” of bitcoin relative to the renminbi.
The standoff between local bitcoin traders and exchanges on one hand, and regulators on other culminated on Jan. 11, when the People’s Bank of China launched spot checks on BTCC, Huobi and OkCoin to look into a range of possible rule violations, amid increasing government efforts to stem capital outflows and relieve pressure on the yuan. According to Reuters, citing “a person familiar with the matter”, the exchanges had not received direct instructions from the PBOC, but decided to introduce trading fees to align with its wishes to see the bitcoin market cool down.
So far, the impact of the new fees has been negligible, with the price of Bitcoin on the BTCChina exchange largely unchanged overnight.
And as one bitcoin bubble fizzles, a new one appears to be born. Japan.
As Cryptocoinsnews reported over the weekend, a major factor that has sent the trading volume of Bitcoin in Japan soaring, is the new virtual currency law which will be enforced by this spring, says the Business Development Lead of CoinCheck, the country’s top exchange. According to Kagayaki (Kaga) Kawabata, the introduction of the proposed law made Bitcoin a darling of top media organisations in the country. He explains:
“After this announcement, various large media that once negated Bitcoin started to feature Bitcoin again this time as an innovative technology (After the Mt. Gox incident, the media broadcasted Bitcoin as a tool for money laundering). Japanese national TV shows and newspapers such as NHK and NIKKEI featured about cryptocurrency expanding awareness of the general public and bringing in various users with diverse backgrounds from college students to elderlies.”
Kawabata, whose CoinCheck’s parent company, ResuPress, also provides Bitcoin payment processing for merchants similar to the service BitPay offers, the announcement could have contributed to a key new trend in Japan which is the changing view that Bitcoin is not just an investment vehicle. He says:
“Many still think of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle. However, the situation is changing where Bitcoin is also starting to be used as a payment method in the past few years. Currently, there’s around 5,270 merchants and website that accept Bitcoin as payment in Japan (99% of them use Coincheck payment). Regarding payment volume, compared to last year January, the monthly volume increased by 8900%. This number could accelerate in the next few years.”
He added that the enforcement of the new law may have positive side effects on Bitcoin as it was once considered a toy for geeks but is now changing dramatically now to be seen as a legit currency. Ironically, Japan was also the epicenter of the first mass bitcoin casualty, when Mt.Gox went under, wiping out hundreds of millions in the process. Then again, human memory tends to be quite shallow when potential profits are involved.
Such a change in perception, he says, has the potential to migrate serious traders to trade in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies which will inadvertently surge cryptocurrency trading volume remarkably. Which is why he is very optimistic about the future:
“We believe the hype in Bitcoin price is not just a fluke,” Kawabata says on the general outlook of cryptocurrencies. “Many factors exist that accelerate the trading volume. We believe cryptocurrencies market will grow dramatically in the next few years. Many large corporations and banks in Japan have started to show interest in cryptocurrency and started to experiment with the Blockchain technology. I think remittance will be the first practical usage of cryptocurrency where many corporations/banks will adopt cryptocurrencies.”
Of course, if and when the second coming of the Japanese bitcoin bubble fizzles, we are confident some other country in the world will open it with open arms, as the rolling digital currency bubble continues its fascinating drift around the globe.
end
Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight
1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan UP to 6.8235(HUGE REVALUATION NORTHBOUND /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/ CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS COMPLETELY TO 6.8536 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 13.64 POINTS OR 0.44% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 12.61 OR 0.06%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 246.88 POINTS OR 1.29% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 113.52
3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO 100.40/Euro UP to 1.0736
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO +.057%/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 52.56 and Brent: 54.92
3f Gold UP/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.403%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.047%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to : 6.69%
3k Gold at $1214.25/silver $17.16(8:15 am est) SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.44-
3m oil into the 52 dollar handle for WTI and 54 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a BIG REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.52 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9983 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0721 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to +.403%
3s The Greece ELA NOW at 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.454% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.037% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
Futures, Dollar Slide; European Stocks At 3-Week Lows As “Trump Reality Sets In”
While US stocks closed near session, and all time highs on Friday, the first green close on inauguration day in over 50 years, Monday has seen a modest case of buyer’s remorse, with European stocks sliding, Asian shares mixed and U.S. futures lower as the dollar weakened for the 3rd consecutive day to a six-week low, dropping as much as 1% against the Yen, as anxious investors awaited more details of Donald Trump’s policies, or – as Reuters put it – the “Trump reality set in.” While European shares and US equity futures sold off in early trading, tracking the USDJPY, the now traditional buying levitation wave has emerged, pushing US futures close to unchanged on the session.
The modest risk off session, which comes after world stocks hit multi-year highs earlier this month on expectations Trump would boost growth and inflation with extraordinary fiscal spending measures, has seen shares in developed markets fall with the dollar, while lifting metals and Treasuries after Donald Trump offered little more on plans to boost growth while stirring concerns over protectionism in his first days in office. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped to its lowest level this year, while U.S. futures slid and the dollar fell against all major peers. The weaker currency pushed aluminum to the highest in more than a year, while ten-year Treasury yields fell a second day.
“The focus this morning is on the protectionist rhetoric and the lack of detail on economic stimulus, so it’s a nervous start (to the presidency),” said Investec economist Victoria Clarke. “The other concern is how the Fed interprets Trump’s stance, the worry being the less he does on fiscal stimulus the more nervous they may get on pushing the rate hikes through.”
While the U.S. President’s campaign-trail promises to boost growth and spending helped drive a post-election rally in equities and the dollar, by Monday, investors were calling into question how words would be translated into actions. So far, Trump has focused on a feud with the press over attendance at his inauguration rather than offer concrete plans, leaving investors in limbo. As the chart below shows, while stock dispersion may have risen in recent weeks, cross-asset correlation remains as high as ever, with most asset classes trading largely as a continuation of the Trump trade.
“The markets and a lot of international investors, whilst they’re nervous about Trump’s geopolitical and trade aspirations, have wanted to believe the reflation trade,” Neil Dwane, a chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors Capital LLC told Bloomberg Television. “We’re seeing now is that it is going to be hard. The optimism was always way ahead of what Trump would be able to deliver and now you’re seeing some profit-taking.”
Rabobank analyst Michael Avery said a more protectionist United States could lead to a U.S. dollar liquidity squeeze, with Mexico and Asia likely the most badly hit. “We would see outright confusion over what currency to invoice, trade, and borrow in: a 19th century world of competing reserve currencies in different geographic zones, but without the underpinning of gold,” Avery said in a note. The problem would be exacerbated if China tightens capital controls further, he said.
Across global equities, the Stoxx 600 benchmark index fell to its lowest level since December. Generali jumped as much as 7.1 percent on speculation of a takeover bid for the Italian insurer. Spanish lender Banco de Sabadell dropped after disclosing that the maximum amount it might have to repay to clients in the mortgage-floors ruling exceeds the last two quarters of profit. Other Spanish banks also dropped as clients prepare to claim back interest payments. European stocks fell 0.7 percent and the broader Euro STOXX 600 fell 0.6 percent in early trades on Monday, both hitting their lowest level this year so far.
Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.1% while shares in Australia dropped 0.8 percent after Trump’s administration also declared its intention to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade pact that Japan and Australia have both signed. Other Asian shares were more resilient, however, in part due to the dollar’s weakness, and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has indicated that it expects to raise its benchmark interest rate three times this year, is due to hold its next meeting on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1.
S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2 percent, while the main gauge closed 0.3 percent higher Friday.
The nervous start on Monday saw safe haven assets in demand. The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond, the benchmark for the region, led most euro zone bonds lower, dropping 4 basis points to 0.32 percent in early trade. This followed 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields, which fell to 2.43 percent, after having risen briefly on Friday to 2.513 percent, its highest since Jan. 3. Spot gold prices, meanwhile, rose on Monday to their highest in two months.
Money managers will be dissecting earnings from some of the world’s largest companies this week with Alphabet Inc., Samsung Electronics Co. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. all reporting results.
* * *
Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk
- European equities have kicked the week off on the backfoot with underperformance in financials and macro newsflow relatively light
- FX markets have seen cautious trade in the lead USD pairings, led by the USD/JPY pullback below 114.00
- Looking ahead, highlights include potential comments from ECB’s Draghi and Praet
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2262
- Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 362
- FTSE 100 down 0.6% to 7152
- DAX down 0.4% to 11581
- German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.4%
- Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 2.03%
- Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.5%
- S&P GSCI Index down 0.2% to 398.8
- MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 140
- U.S. 10-yr yield down less than 1bp to 2.46%
- Dollar Index down 0.35% to 100.39
- WTI Crude futures down 0.8% to $52.81
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $55.24
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,213
- Silver spot up 0.2% to $17.13
Top News
- Dollar Drops as Trump’s ‘America First’ Speech Unnerves Traders
- Trump’s Vow to Break From OPEC Oil Imports Echoes Old Refrain
- OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut
- United Air Lifts Halt After Computer Failure Grounded Flights
- List of U.S.-China Tension Losers May Include Nike to Lenovo
- Apple-Supplier Foxconn Weighs $7 Billion U.S. Display Plant
- Yahoo Faces SEC Probe Over Multiple Data Breaches, Journal Says
- Canada Signals Possible U.S. Trade Deal That Excludes Mexico
- Beware the Hedge-Fund Wipeout in Treasuries as Bearish Bets Soar
- Amazon Said to Sign Contracts With Auto Parts Makers: NYP
- GM, Mastercard Want Your Car to Pick Up the Tab for That Latte
Asia equity markets traded mixed despite last Friday’s positive US close where stocks gained during Inauguration Day for the first time in over 50 years. 5 out of 11 sectors gain in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index with infotech and health care, consumer discretionary underperforming. Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) underperformed as exporter names suffered from a firmer JPY, although Toshiba shares outperformed and rose over 9% after reports Japan’s largest banks could invest in a possible spinoff of the Co.’s chip business. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was also lower with weakness in industrials after Brambles (-15.6%) decreased its profit forecast. Conversely, Hang Seng (+0.1%) was flat while Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) traded positive as strength in the services sector kept sentiment upbeat after the NBS stated that the services industry grew 7.8% in 2016 and accounted for 51.6% of GDP. 10yr JGBs were higher amid the risk averse tone in Japan and with the BoJ also in the market under its bond-buying programme for JPY 420b1n in 5-10yr bonds, while the curve flattened amid outperformance in the long end.
Top Asian News
- Yuan Trades Near Two-Month High on Stronger Fixing, Dollar Drop
- Asia Currency Strength to Fade as Focus Returns to U.S. Stimulus
- China Slams Western Democracy as Xi Seeks to Build Party Support
- Hedge Fund Renaissance Picks Winner in Hot Japan Tech Stock
- Modi Budget May Put Consumers Before Taxes to Spur India Demand
- Samsung Probe Shows Battery Design, Assembly Behind Note 7 Fires
- LG Display Said to Reach LCD Panel Supply Pact With Samsung
European bourses sold off this morning after markets had the weekend to digest Trump’s inauguration speech. 10 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors decline with banks and telcosunderperforming and basic materials, construction outperforming. 72% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 26% gain. With all the major indices down around 0.4%, the financial sector has been hit the hardest after Credit Agricole booked EUR 491 min writedown on their French retail unit and SocGen admitted they were at fault regarding fraudulently concealing the quality of residential mortgage backed securities. Fixed income markets have benefitted from the risk off sentiment observed in markets with morning with Bund prices gapping higher at the open. European fixed income markets picked up as a whole in the aftermath of Trump taking office, 10 YR BTP yield’s eye a sustained break below the 2% level with technical support at 1.95% lower down, this came after comments this weekend from the Italian PM who stated the government’s relationship with the EU is starting to improve.
Top European News
- Theresa May Gets Another Brexit Headache Amid Brussels Upheaval
- Brexit Good for Terra Firma, Bad for Most People, Guy Hands Says
- Trump Era May Force Europe Into Deciding What Role It Wants
- Supreme Court Brexit Ruling Unlikely to End May’s Legal Battles
- May Industrial Strategy Seeks to Pick Winning Areas for U.K.
- UBS Wealth Sees Too Much Political Risk Baked Into Europe Stocks
- JPMorgan May Move 2,500 Jobs to Central Europe on Brexit: Puls
- Starwood Said Planning Sale of London Tower Project on Brexit
- Generali Climbs Amid Reports of Interest by Intesa, Allianz
- Euro-Area Debt Falls to Lowest Since 2012 as Prospects Brighten
In commodities, aluminum for delivery in three months increased 0.9 percent on the London Metal Exchange to the highest since May 2015. Copper, lead, nickel and zinc all rose more than 1 percent. Gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,212.28 an ounce. The metal has increased in 10 of the past 11 sessions. West-Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 1.4 percent at $52.50 a barrel after the amount of drilling rigs in the U.S. increased. The key drivers in the commodity markets at the moment are China’s economic prospects as much as anything else, giving base metals the support we are seeing at present. We have had the added boost of infra structure spending plans in the US but this has somewhat waned in recent weeks, leading to the largely sideways price action seen outside of the specific drivers. Copper saw a brief dip under USD2.60 last week, with Oil prices also falling, though there was little correlation to highlight here, with WTI and Brent seeing some erratic trade over the past week, but the former looking comfortable on a USD50.00 handle for now. Gold has recovered some ground over the weekend over USD softening, but we may see some added support coming in from a risk perspective with equities looking a little vulnerable this morning.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.6 percent as of 10:51 a.m. in London. It has fallen for four straight weeks, its longest retreat since February. The dollar lost 0.7 percent against the South African rand and 1 percent versus the Mexican peso. The euro climbed 0.4 percent to $1.0740. The yen rose 1 percent to 113.47 per dollar. Cautious trade in the lead USD pairings, led by the USD/JPY pullback below 114.00. USD longs have favoured this pair specifically as the ‘path of least resistance’ and hence remains ever vulnerable to position trimming/profit taking if Trump rhetoric transfers into fresh nervousness in the market. Notable has been the lack of volatility in the USD/CHF rate which is now below parity, but last week we saw 1.0100 reclaimed by with very little conviction. GBP looks to have weathered an uncomfortable period, heightened by the expectations of PM May’s speech last week, but with the market left in no doubt that the UK will leave the EU in in entirety, we now have a clear view on an albeit rocky road ahead, but with the backdrop of parliamentary vote on the final Brexit deal (when) reached. EUR/GBP is now pressing the recent lows ahead of .8600, but given president Trump’s early request to see PM May, the strong US-UK alliance looks to be assisting some of the gains seen in Cable, though pre 1.2500 will draw in fresh offers.
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The photo leading the way in the weekend press was that of new US President Donald Trump. As we start the first business day of his new administration I must admit to having high uncertainty about the year ahead. The range of outcomes seem very wide to me which, for someone that’s supposed to be followed for having strong views, leaves me feeling pretty uncomfortable. Of course I do have a central view which can be broadly summed up by better growth than I thought back in October but higher yields, higher volatility and mildly wider credit spreads over the course of 2017 as the technicals of low yields and extreme QE wear off. One of the reasons I think vol will be high is that Trump’s victory is a break from the old more predictable policy of the establishment. How big a break and whether it works or not we won’t know for sometime and the market will have plenty of opportunity to second guess the outcomes from both sides of the ledger.
I really have no idea what Donald Trump’s administration is going to want to ‘actually’ do in economic policy terms or be able to do. I think fiscal stimulus is going to be relatively large but I’m guessing (hopefully an educated one) on this front. I am slightly less convinced of this than I was straight after his victory though. His inauguration speech on Friday was high on rhetoric, light on specifics but pretty combative with phrases like “American carnage stops right now” and “America first” grabbing the headlines.
This week will continue to be largely focused on all things President Trump related. White House spokesman Sean Spicer confirmed that Trump will meet with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau “in the coming days” with the renegotiating of NAFTA likely to be front and centre. However there’s likely to be more attention on this Friday’s meeting in Washington between the President and UK PM Theresa May. The PM said in a BBC interview yesterday that “we’ll have an opportunity to talk about our possible future trading relationship” and that “I’m going to be talking about how we can build on that special relationship”. As we already know, Trump has previously said that that the US could strike a trade deal with the UK “very quickly” so it’ll be interesting to see what comes out of the meeting. In addition to this the Brexit talk will come to the forefront tomorrow when we get the Supreme Court verdict on whether Parliament needs to vote prior to the government triggering Article 50. Should there be no change from the High Court ruling then May will be forced to rush a brief bill through both Houses in order to prevent any delay from the self-imposed late March deadline. All eyes on that outcome.
Aside from the obvious Trump-related news this weekend, yesterday in France we had the first round of results in the Socialist primary. They revealed that former education minister Benoit Hamon came out on top with 36.1% of the votes, compared to 31.2% for former PM Manuel Valls. Former Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg came third with 17.9% and endorsed Hamon. Hamon and Valls will now face a run-off next Sunday to be the Socialist Party candidate. According to the FT, polls have suggested that whoever winds up as the Socialist candidate would likely come fifth in the first round of the presidential election on April 23rd with less than 10% of the voting. So it’s likely to be a fairly uphill task regardless.
Over to markets now and quickly checking in on how Asia is opening the week. Once again it’s been another fairly mixed start with the Hang Seng (+0.10%), Shanghai Comp (+0.60%) and Kospi (+0.10%) all up but the Nikkei (-1.22%) and ASX (-0.57%) in the red. Markets in Japan are however being weighed down by a near 1% gain for the Yen this morning, while other safe haven assets have continued to make strides include Gold (+0.68%) and Treasuries. There’s been some focus on the morning press in China too with Bloomberg reporting that the People’s Daily has a page dedicated to critiquing Western democracies, albeit without directly referencing Trump.
The moves this morning come after equity markets in the US closed out on a mildly more positive note on Friday following the conclusion of Trump’s speech. The S&P 500 finished +0.34% with sector gains relatively broadly based while the Dow closed +0.48% and so taking it back into positive territory for the year again. The Stoxx 600 had earlier closed -0.07% in Europe and as a result closed with the first negative return week of the New Year. Away from that rates didn’t appear to be particularly excited by Trump’s comments with 10y Treasury yields ending the day little changed around 2.467% – although in fairness there was a decent fade into the close from the early day highs and that’s continued this morning where they are now at 2.428%. That was the same for the US Dollar after the USD index touched an intraday high of a little over +0.30% before paring all of that move and more into the closing bell to end -0.41%. It also means that the Greenback has now fallen for two weeks in a row. Meanwhile WTI Oil (+2.11%) ended up back above $53/bbl and continues to hover in this $51 to $55 range it’s been in since the end of 2016. It’s up a little bit more this morning too after Saudi’s energy minister confirmed that compliance with the agreed OPEC cut between members has so far been “great” and that “it’s been one of the best agreements we’ve had for some time”.
Elsewhere on Friday we also heard some more comments out of the Fed. San Francisco Fed President, John Williams, said that he doesn’t expect any disruption when the Fed begins to let the balance sheet roll off. Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker, warned that since the US is already at full employment, “any large stimulus to the economy may run the risk of inflation growing faster than we hope” and that “if we had a significant trade war, say with China, the lower 10% of the income distribution would lose 50% of their purchasing power”. Harker also highlighted that the Fed “should consider stopping reinvestment” once the Fed funds rate is above 100bps and that “we are actively discussing and researching the question of what is the appropriate size in the long run”.
Away from that chatter there was little in the way of data out of the US although we did see the NY Fed revise up their Q4 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1.9% and raise their Q1 2017 GDP forecast to 2.7% from 2.1% with positive news including industrial production and capacity utilization data last week. The Atlanta Fed is at 2.8% for Q4. Meanwhile over in the UK the December retail sales numbers were a bit disappointing with ex-fuel sales in the month down -2.0% mom (vs. -0.4% expected) and so which has had the effect of lowering the YoY rate from +6.4% to +4.9%.
Moving now to this week’s calendar. It’s a pretty quiet start to the week for data today with the only releases of note being the Euro area consumer confidence reading this afternoon and China’s leading economic index. Things pick up on Tuesday however when we’ll get the various flash January PMI’s in Europe. As well as that we’ll also get the latest public sector net borrowing data in the UK. In the US the data due out includes the flash manufacturing PMI, existing home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing survey. Wednesday kicks off in Japan where the December trade numbers will be due. During the European session we’ll get various confidence indicators in France along with the IFO survey in Germany and CBI trends orders data in the UK. The only data due in the US on Wednesday is the FHFA house price index. In Asia on Thursday we’ll get some data out of China with the December industrial profits numbers. During the European session we’ll get consumer confidence in Germany and the advanced Q4 GDP reading in the UK. The US calendar finally picks up on Thursday with the advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, flash services and composite PMI’s, new home sales, leading index and Kansas Fed manufacturing survey all due. We close the week out in Asia on Friday with CPI in Japan. During the European session we’ll get M3 money supply for the Euro area and consumer confidence in France. Over in the US it’s all eyes on the advance Q4 GDP print in the US. We’ll also get a first look at durable and capital goods orders during December as well as the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
Away from the data there’s no Fedspeak this week with the Fed entering the blackout period. However we will hear from the ECB’s Praet, Weidmann and Lautenschlaeger at various points this week. BoE Governor Carney will also speak on Wednesday. Meanwhile earnings season will also start to ramp up with 107 S&P 500 companies set to report, accounting for about 29% of the index market cap. The notable reporters include Yahoo and McDonald’s today, Verizon and Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday, AT&T, eBay and Boeing on Wednesday, Caterpillar, Ford, Intel, Alphabet and Microsoft on Thursday followed by Chevron on Friday. The other key event for markets will of course be the UK Supreme Court decision tomorrow, before PM May meets with President Trump on Friday.
END
i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 13.64 POINTS OR 0.44%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 12.61 OR 0.06%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 246.88 POINTS OR 0.1.29% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.73%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8536/Oil FELL to 52.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and 54.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED. Offshore yuan trades 6.8235 yuan to the dollar vs 6.8536 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE COMPLETELY NARROWS AS POBC ATTEMPTS TO STOP DOLLARS FROM LEAVING CHINA’S SHORES. HOWEVER BOTH CHINESE YUANS RISE WITH THE LOWER DOLLAR
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:
END
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
none today
c) REPORT ON CHINA
My goodness: China manipulates its stock market on a daily basis. How we see that their Carl Icahn,Xu Xiang, was sentenced to 5 1/2 yrs in prison for manipulating their stock market… go figure…
(courtesy zero hedge)
“China’s Carl Icahn” Hedge Fund Billionaire Sentenced To Five And A Half Years In Prison
Back in late 2015, when the Chinese stock bubble had violently burst and was suffering daily moves of 10% in either direction as retail traders scrambled to get out of what until recently was a “sure thing”, Beijing did what it does best, and found a convenient scapegoat on which to blame the market crash – which was function of the country’s relentless debt bubble and lack of trading regulations – in late 2015 it arrested one of the most prominent hedge fund traders, Xu Xiang, also known as “hedge fund brother No. 1” and “China’s Carl Icahn” for his phenomenal, and rigged, winning record in the stock market, who ran the Shanghai-based Zexi Investment.
Which is not to say that Xu wasn’t engaged in shady activites: while the country’s stock prices plummeted in 2015, Zexi’s investments earned an average 218%, far more than the second-most profitable player, Shen Zhou Mu Fund, which reported a 94% yield, according to market analysis website Licai.com.
Xu was detained by police in November 2015 on the highway between Shanghai and Ningbo, in an arrest that was captured in photographs and widely circulated on social media. Police later froze over $1 billion of shares in listed companies with connections to Xu’s investments, according to exchange filings by those firms. Xu, born in 1976, started investing at high school in the eastern city of Ningbo, according to the official People’s Daily. Skipping university, he instead became a professional investor, accumulating over 4 billion yuan in personal wealth and managing tens of billions of yuan, the People’s Daily reported in 2015.
Fast forward to today, when China sentenced the former billionaire hedge fund manager to five and a half years in prison for stock-price manipulation, in one of the country’s most high-profile cases following the 2015 market rout. Xu Xiang, founder of Shanghai-based asset management firm Zexi Investment, and two associates were convicted of driving up share prices, the Qingdao Intermediate People’s Court in Shandong province said on Monday. Xu was also fined 11 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), sources who attended the court hearing said. It is the highest-ever fine for an individual committing a financial crime in China.
Wang Wei, owner of three asset-management companies, received a three-year prison term and was slapped with a 1 billion yuan fine. And Zhu Yong, the third defendant, was sentenced to two years behind bars with a three-year reprieve. He was told to pay 50 million yuan in penalties. The three men shared insider tips and connections to high-ranking executives, people with knowledge of the matter told Caixin.
Demonstrating he has learned from the most successful US hedge funds, Xu and the two investment firm managers were accused of colluding with senior executives of 13 listed companies from 2010 to 2015 to issue positive news about companies and even purchasing stocks in large quantities — all in a bid to boost prices and lure retail investors. The fund managers and executives then dumped their stock at the higher prices.
Between 2010 and 2015, Xu – either alone or with Wang and Zhu – colluded with the chairmen or the “actual controlling shareholders” of 13 listed companies to trade on insider information on topics such as dividends, according to the statement seen by Bloomberg. Xu controlled almost 100 trading accounts opened by his relatives, employees and employees’ relatives, the court said last year. The executives and owners have been charged separately.
The money involved and illicit gains from their manipulation was “especially huge, and the circumstances specially serious,” the court said without disclosing the amounts. They won’t appeal their sentences, according to the court.
The Chinese government has stepped up its crackdown on market irregularities after the stock market meltdown in the summer of 2015, in which the Shanghai index plunged more than 40% from mid-June to September. The sentence may have been prompted by China’s desire to refocus the local population’s attention on stock investing yet again, now that China’s housing bubble has burst again.
Sources told Caixin that the three defendants poured 40 billion yuan raised through their wealth management operations to prop up stock prices. Considering the huge amount of money involved in the illicit trading, the sentence was lenient, said a criminal defense lawyer who spoke on the condition of anonymity. According to the country’s Criminal Law, a conviction for stock manipulation could result in a prison term of up to 10 years and a fine up to five times as much as the illegal proceeds.
end
China ready for “war” with Trump policies. They state that capitalism is in trouble and thus they must be ready to assume “world leadership”. Simply amazing…
(courtesy zero hedge)
China Says It Is Ready To Assume “World Leadership”, Slams Western Democracy As “Flawed”
Over the weekend China used the Trump inauguration to warn about the perils of democracy, touting the relative stability of the Communist system as President Xi Jinping heads toward a twice-a-decade reshuffle of senior leadership posts.
Without directly referencing the new president, China wrote that democracy has reached its limits, and deterioration is the inevitable future of capitalism, according to the People’s Daily, the flagship paper of China’s Communist Party. It devoted an entire page on Sunday to critiquing Western democracies, quoting former Chairman Mao Zedong’s 1949 poem asking people to “range far your eyes over long vistas” and saying the ultimate defeat of capitalism would enable Communism to emerge victorious.
“The emergence of capitalism’s social crisis is the most updated evidence to show the superiority of socialism and Marxism,” said one of the People’s Daily articles.
“Western style democracy used to be a recognized power in history to drive social development. But now it has reached its limits,” said another article on the same page. “Democracy is already kidnapped by the capitals and has become the weapon for capitalists to chase profits.”
The Chinese comments came after Trump in his inauguration speech said his administration would focus on an “America first” approach to foreign policy, undermining hopes abroad that the new president would moderate his protectionist tone. His pledge to abandon a U.S.-led Pacific trade pact has enabled China to step in as the chief advocate of an alternative Asia-wide deal.
Sensing a global feeling of discontent, China was quick to appease the public and deflect US woes to the terminal decline of its democratic system. With ministries and senior officials stressing unity as a priority for China, smoothing the path for the party’s congress in the fourth quarter, state media were quick to highlight divisions within America shown by Trump’s elevation.
As Bloomberg observes, the unusual series of commentaries in the People’s Daily mirrors Soviet efforts to promote an alternative political and economic system during the Cold War. The rise of anti-establishment, protectionist politicians like Trump, amid populist winds on several continents, has sent political parties scurrying to shore up their support, helping China to portray itself as relatively steady.
Ironically, realizing a power vacuum is forming in global “governance”, Xi has used recent speeches to international audiences to tout China’s economic and political values and has said that globalization, despite its flaws, should endure via the existing international system of finance and trade. That’s even as state media criticizes democracy and capitalism amid efforts to build support at home for the party. Translation: China remains largely an export-driven economy, and any threats to the global trade model could have dire consequences for social stability in China.
“China’s rising wealth has brought greater global presence, but that’s not enough,” said Zhang Ming, a political science professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “The Communist leaders want that someday China will matter globally for the nature of its political system and create its own universal values.”
As a result, Trump’s policies will give China a chance to take a bigger global role, said Zhang. “China doesn’t have a better Communist system than it used to have, but the global economic and political turmoil has undermined public confidence in western democracy,” he said.
Separately, in comments made by Zhang Jun, director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s international economics department during a briefing with foreign journalists to discuss President Xi Jinping’s visit to Switzerland last week, he said that China does not want world leadership but could be forced to assume that role if others step back from that position. The senior Chinese diplomat’s statement also followed Trump’s pledge to put “America first” in his first speech.
Speaking days before Trump assumed the presidency, Xi also urged countries to resist isolationism, signaling Beijing’s desire to play a bigger role on the global stage. Elaborating on that theme, Zhang said China had no intention of seeking global leadership.
“If anyone were to say China is playing a leadership role in the world I would say it’s not China rushing to the front but rather the front runners have stepped back leaving the place to China,” Zhang said.
“If China is required to play that leadership role then China will assume its responsibilities,” he added.
“We still hope that the United States and other Western economies can continue to make an even bigger contribution to the world economic recovery. We’ve heard Trump announce that the United
States will achieve four percent growth and we’re very happy about that,” he added.
Returning to Trump, Zhang said he thought Trump would not be able to achieve his economic growth goals if he was also fighting trade wars. “A trade war or an exchange rate war won’t be advantageous to any country,” Zhang added. But mostly China.
Separately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Xi had sent a congratulatory message to Trump upon his assumption of office, but gave no other details.
end
4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Germany/Handlesblatt
The German Press has finally realized that Trump is declaring economic war against all nations with its protectionist policies. They stated that the inaugural speech was a “Declaration of War”
(courtesy zero hedge)
German Press: “That Was No Presidential Speech; That Was A Declaration Of War”
Following yesterday’s openly confrontational, deliberately protectionist presidential address by president Trump, which in various circles has been dubbed the “American carnage” speech for obvious reasons, some of Obama’s closest foreign friends are scrambling to find a role in a world that has drastically changed in less than 24 hours. One of them is the foreign leader whom Obama spoke to last before vacating the White House, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who vowed on Saturday to seek compromises on issues like trade and military spending with Trump, adding she would work on preserving the important relationship between Europe and the United States.
“He made his convictions clear in his inauguration speech,” Merkel said in remarks broadcast live, a day after Trump vowed to put ‘America first’.
Speaking at a news conference in the south-western town of Schoental, Merkel – and finding herself in a world where many of her “established” friends have been swept away by the tide of “populist anger” – suddenly struck a more conciliatory tone toward Trump than Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who on Friday said Germany should prepare for a rough ride under the new U.S. president.
“I say two things with regards to this (speech): first, I believe firmly that it is best for all of us if we work together based on rules, common values and joint action in the international economic system, in the international trade system, and make our contributions to the military alliances,” Merkel said. Judging by Trump’s fiery sermon, he disagrees.
“And second, the trans-Atlantic relationship will not be less important in the coming years than it was in past years. And I will work on that. Even when there are different opinions, compromises and solutions can be best found when we exchange ideas with respect,” added Merkel.
The conservative German leader, who is seeking a fourth term and enjoyed a close relationship with former president Barack Obama, is seen by liberals across the Atlantic as a voice of reason that counterbalances rising populist parties in Europe. That voice, however, has rising problems at home, where her approval rating has tumbled over the past year due to her immigration policies, where “radical” views such as those espoused by Trump are gaining traction.
As Reuters notes, relations with the United States, Germany’s biggest trading partner, are likely to be a hot topic in electioneering in coming months leading to a general election in September. And in the aftermath of the Trump speech, which defined Trump’s “negotiating baseline”, Merkel will have no choice but admit weakness in accepting compromises with a man who has criticized her decision in 2015 to throw open Germany’s borders to asylum seekers fleeing wars and conflicts, and has said he believes other countries will leave the EU after Britain and that the NATO military alliance was obsolete.
* * *
Yet while Merkel may be hoping for a fresh start with the new US president, her domestic institutions and media will be far less forgiving to any indication of weakness from the chancellor.
The best example of this, so far, is an article penned this morning by Gabor Steingart, chief in chief of Handelsblatt, Germany’s leading economic newspaper, who burned all compromise bridges when he said that “that was no presidential speech; that was a veritable declaration of war.“
The savage criticism continued:”Threatening in tone. Cold and calculating in logic. Change minus the hope. Donald Trump used the traditional Inauguration Day address to settle a score with the U.S. political establishment going back decades. With four ex-presidents sitting a few feet behind him, the 45th president delivered a populist manifesto.”
He notes than any attempts at compromise will fail because “the new president loves a good fight, not consensus. He doesn’t want to hug, but to smother, to overwhelm” and add that “in domestic policy, the Trump agenda sounds like a blueprint for civil war; in foreign policy, it sounds like the dawn of a new ice age.“
Hardly an amicable setting for Merkel to be demand compromises.
For the German press what hope there is that the Trump phenomenon will be promptly overthrown lies in the face of three opponents: “Opponent No. 1: The other America. Across the country, an anti-Trump movement is growing”… “Opponent No. 2: The Media. Among publishers, producers, filmmakers and journalists, Trump has hardly any friends. CNN, The Washington Post, The New York Times and Hollywood couldn’t warm to the volcanic personality of the new president.”… “Opponent No. 3: The Political Party System. Washington is having an allergic reaction to Trump. Democrats and even Republicans are cooperating on Capitol Hill to investigate the Trump team’s contacts to Russia in a special committee.”
It is clear on whose side the German economic press is; the bigger question for Merkel is whether in the aftermath of this “war” by Trump, the German people will side with her, and distance themselves from the “American populist”, or whether the backlash against the establishment will reverberate further, leading to even more pain for Merkel in the upcoming polls.
Finally, should Merkel’s “compromise” approach fail, will Germany respond to Trump’s “declaration of war” in kind, and will it be simply trade, or conventional?
Full Handelsblatt letter below:
The Demons Have Been Unchained
That was no presidential speech; that was a veritable declaration of war. Threatening in tone. Cold and calculating in logic. Change minus the hope. Donald Trump used the traditional Inauguration Day address to settle a score with the U.S. political establishment going back decades. With four ex-presidents sitting a few feet behind him, the 45th president delivered a populist manifesto.
Until his victory, the nation’s political elite used days like these, he told America, to celebrate amongst themselves. Their triumph was not your triumph. Their well-being was not your well-being. But this time, power would transfer not just from one party to the other, but from Washington back to the people. In the people’s name, he will put America “first.” In their name, he will “take back” America’s factories. In their name, he will “exterminate” Islamic terrorism, end inner-city drug gang “bloodbaths” and get NATO partners like Germany to pay more for Europe’s security. In domestic policy, the Trump agenda sounds like a blueprint for civil war; in foreign policy, it sounds like the dawn of a new ice age. Not that he’s cold-bloodedly planning either one, but he knows where his fiery rhetoric will lead him. The new president loves a good fight, not consensus. He doesn’t want to hug, but to smother, to overwhelm.
Yesterday was his day, but the days that follow may belong to his opponents. There are three main opponents that could bring him down politically.
Opponent No. 1: The other America. Across the country, an anti-Trump movement is growing. While only 10,000 people came to an open-air concert in Washington celebrating his victory on the night before the inauguration, 20,000 people took to the streets in New York to protest his elevation. Their signs shouted: Not My President. The security and surveillance costs around Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, at the corner of 56th Street, is costing taxpayers about a half million dollars – each day.
Opponent No. 2: The Media. Among publishers, producers, filmmakers and journalists, Trump has hardly any friends. CNN, The Washington Post, The New York Times and Hollywood couldn’t warm to the volcanic personality of the new president. Even an unbroken Twitter assault has no chance against such a monolithic wall of media rejection. He hates them, and they hate him right back. He pushes forward his agenda, and they push back unabashedly with theirs. Trump enters The White House with the lowest approval rating ever of an elected president.
Opponent No. 3: The Political Party System. Washington is having an allergic reaction to Trump. Democrats and even Republicans are cooperating on Capitol Hill to investigate the Trump team’s contacts to Russia in a special committee. House Speaker Paul Ryan doesn’t see himself as a Trump follower but as a Trump successor. He is the wolf in sheep’s clothing, biding his time, waiting for an opening. Put another way: Not only Democrats are hoping for an impeachment proceeding.
America is now on the brink of a new period of polarization. The demons in this fraternal battle have been unchained. The greatness that Trump seeks will not be borne under these conditions. An icy wind is blowing across the land.
Yours sincerely,
Gabor Steingart
end
ECB
In Stunning Admission, Draghi Says A Country Can Leave Eurozone But Must “Settle Bill First”
Less than 4 years ago, and shortly after his infamous “whatever it takes” threat to speculators, Mario Draghi responded to a question from Zero Hedge readers, saying “there is no Plan B” when it comes to contingency plans for a Eurozone nation leaving the monetary union. The reasoning was simple: the mere contemplation of such a scenario assigned a probability to its occurrence, which is why the ECB was desperate to give the impression that no matter what, Europe’s cohesion is unbreakable.
Fast forward four years later, when not only has this particular strategy been thoroughly rejected, but for the first time ever the head of the ECB provided a framework, vague as it may be, laying out what a Eurozone exit would look like.
In a letter to two Italian lawmakers in the European Parliament released on Friday, and first reported by Reuters, Mario Draghi implied that a country could leave the euro zone – so much for “No Plan B” – but first it would need to settle or debts with the bloc’s TARGET2 payments system before severing ties.
“If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full,” Draghi said in the letter. He did not specify in what currency the “settlement” would have to take place. It was also not clear just what the ECB would do in response if a country did not “settle its claims in full”: at last check the ECB did not have a policy-enforcing army.
As Reuters confirms, the comment by Draghi is “a rare reference by Draghi to the possibility of the currency zone losing members.” We would say not just “reference” but admission that a Italexit is all too possible, however the only way the ECB would allow it, would be for Italy first to pay its €357 billion TARGET2 bill (which various confused and clueless tenured economists over the past five years claimed would never be used by the ECB as a bargaining chip in “exit” negotiations and has no political implications; oops).
To be sure, the beneficiary of such a transfer payment would be the country most reliant on the perpetuation of the status quo: Germany, which has some €754 billion in Target2 “assets” which could be nullified should one or more Eurozone countries exit without satisfying their payment obligations.
In the letter, Draghi reiterated that the imbalances were due to the ECB’s own bond buying-program, where many of the sellers are foreign investors with accounts in Germany, and ensuing portfolio rebalancing.
Draghi’s admission that “QuItaly” or UscIta as it is known domestically – is an all too real possibility coincides with a groundswell of anti-euro sentiment in Italy and other euro zone states, fueled in part by last June’s unprecedented decision by Britain to leave the European Union.
The threat of defaults on cross-border debts has often been credited as one element keeping the euro zone together throughout the financial crisis. As these payments are not generally settled, weaker economies including Italy, Spain and Greece have accumulated huge liabilities towards Target 2 while Germany stands out as the biggest creditor with net claims of 754.1 billion euros.
Target 2 imbalances have worsened in recent months, with Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart warning of capital flight from Italy. This can be seen in the chart below, which confirms that below the calm surface portrayed by low – if recently rising – Italian bond yields, tremendous capital imbalances are piling up.
Draghi’s admission, which is meant as a quasi-threat to Italy, may have opened up a whole new can of worms for European stability in addition to concerns about Trump, because not only has Draghi confirmed that an exit from the Eurozone has been explicitly modeled by the central bank, but also lays out the conditions under which it would be considered and permitted.
More importantly, it also once again provides the basis for an aggressive “negotiation”, potentially escalating to rancorous bargaining between Italy and Germany, as suddenly the ECB has made it clear that Italy’s gain in a “hypothetical” Euro zone exit would be a tremendous loss for Berlin and Merkel. We are confident that the question of “how much” preventing such a loss would be worth to Merkel, will emerge in very short order. As for what Draghi’s statement means for countries with a far smaller Target2 liability which may also consider exiting the monetary union, the answer is two words: “green light.”
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Turkey is now in its final stages of having Erdogan as a dictator for life. The only way he can be removed is by a coup
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/MishTalk)
Erdogan Seeks Powers To Stay In Office Until 2029: Expect Perpetual State Of Emergency
Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s carefully planned move to become legal dictator of Turkey is in its final stages. In the wake of a foiled coup, Erdogan removed or imprisoned every judge not on his side, shut down all opposition newspapers, and jailed all of his political opponents.
After his hand-picked court approved the changes Erdogan wanted, all that remains is a Public Referendum which Erdogan will win simply because he gets to count the votes.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has begun a final push to increase his power as Turkey’s president — a goal he has sought for years — after the country’s parliament agreed far-reaching constitutional changes that will now be put to referendum.
The proposed changes, which were shepherded through parliament on Friday night in alliance between Turkey’s ruling AKP and a nationalist party, would crown Mr Erdogan’s 14-year rule by boosting his formal role as president and allowing him to remain in post until 2029.
In a sign of the tension that may mark the referendum, fist fights broke out in parliament over several days, while a television blackout of the opposition speeches forced one opposing MP to bring his own cameras into parliament, only to have his microphone stolen.
Since the failed coup and the introduction of emergency powers, he has ruled the country by decree and 100,000 people accused of backing the coup have been imprisoned.
It is unclear if the president will lift the state of emergency before the poll, scheduled for an unspecified date after April 2, but some of the permanent powers he seek resemble the emergency powers he currently holds.
Expect a Permanent Emergency
Expect a permanent emergency with increasing power every step of the way to Erdogan. This is likely to continue until he is overthrown in a coup, assassinated, or until Turkey disintegrates into hyperinflation.
Turkish Lira Down 62 Percent Since September 2010
That’s not close to hyperinflation material, but hyperinflation is an increasing possibility when madmen dictators are in charge.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in bed with Erdogan who wants visa-free access to the EU for 80 million Muslim Turks.
Are German election threats and fireworks due to Erdogan coming up?
end
6.GLOBAL ISSUES
Trump ready this morning to sign executive order to renegotiate NAFTA: down goes the Mexican Peso and the Cdn Loonie. He also stated that he was going to abandon the TPP”
(courtesy zero hedge)
Peso, Loonie Drop After NAFTA Renegotiation Executive Order Headlines
Confirming his campaign rhetoric and inaugural address tone, President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico,according to NBC News’ Kristen Welker.
President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Monday stating his intention to renegotiate the free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, a White House official told NBC News.
Eliminating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was crafted by former President Bill Clinton and enacted in 1994, was a frequent Trump campaign promise.
The deal was intended to eliminate most trade tariffs between the three nations, increase investment and tighten protection and enforcement of intellectual property.
The reaction in the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar is clear…
This should hardly be surprise…
I will renegotiate NAFTA. If I can’t make a great deal, we’re going to tear it up. We’re going to get this economy running again. #Debate
Canada’s ambassador to the United States said it was clear the Trump team were concerned above all about trade deficits with Mexico and China.
“I don’t think Canada is the focus at all,” David MacNaughton told reporters in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of a two-day government retreat focused on how to handle the new Trump administration.
Additionally, as CNN’s Jake Tapper tweeted, Trump is expected to abandon TPP…
Sr WH official: POTUS’s first executive action on Monday will be to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, per @JDiamond1
All of which confirms the new White House’s statement:
“This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers,”
“President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the president will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA.”
Peso Tumbles As Mexican President Warns “Will Take Immediate Actions To Defend Interests… Doesn’t Believe In Walls”
In a much anticipated speech, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto warned that “Mexico is obliged to take steps to defend itself given the new vision in U.S.,” reaffirming Mexico “as a nation open to the world on trade.” The peso is leaking lower as he speaks, erasing post-inauguration gains.
Further headlines include:
- *MEXICO PRESIDENT PENA NIETO SPEAKS IN MEXICO CITY
- *PENA: MEXICO REAFFIRMS ITSELF AS NATION OPEN TO WORLD ON TRADE
- *PENA: MEXICO WILL DIVERSIFY, STRENGTHEN WORLD TRADE POSITION
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO IS BECOMING A GLOBAL LOGISTICS CENTER
- *PENA: MEXICO WILL KEEP, STRENGTHEN RELATIONSHIPS AROUND WORLD
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN ROLE IN CARIBBEAN, LATAM
- *PENA: MEXICO LOOKING TO STRENGTHEN TRADE W/ ARGENTINA, BRAZIL
- *MEXICO SEEKS STRATEGIC ALLIANCES WITH MIDDLE EAST COS.: PENA
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO WILL TAKE ACTIONS TO DEFEND INTERESTS W/ U.S
- *NEITHER CONFRONTATION, NOR SUBMISSION IN U.S. TALKS: PENA NIETO
- *U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE FOR U.S.: PENA NIETO
- *MEXICO WILL SEEK U.S. RESPECT RIGHTS OF IMMIGRANTS: PENA NIETO
- *U.S.-MEXICO SHOULD AID CENTRAL AMERICA TO STOP IMMIGRATION:PENA
- *PENA NIETO: U.S. MUST WORK W/ MEXICO TO PREVENT GUN SHIPMENTS
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO, U.S., CANADA FREE TRADE MUST CONTINUE
- *NORTH AMERICA TRADE SHOULD BE FREE OF TARIFFS: PENA NIETO
- *PENA NIETO: WE WILL DEFEND RIGHT OF COS. TO INVEST IN MEXICO
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO DOESN’T BELIEVE IN WALLS
- *PENA NIETO: MEXICO, U.S. MUST INVEST IN BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE
- *PENA NIETO: GOVT WILL SUPPORT SENATE IMMIGRATION INITIATIVE
- *PENA: CONSULATES TO REDOUBLE EFFORTS TO DEFEND MEXICANS IN U.S.
end
7. OIL ISSUES
Russia boosted exports by 24% to China and clearly have taken market share away from Saudi Arabia. It seems that the Russians have supplied oil and in return they take yuan. The yuan is then used to purchase gold (in yuan) at the Shanghai gold exchange (SGE). This is totally putting a nail in the petrodollar scheme and thus the dollar.
(courtesy zerohedge)
For The First Time Ever Russia Beats Saudi Arabia As China’s Top Oil Supplier
While OPEC members were infighting over crude production and export quotas, posturing with temporary production cuts (just so the Saudis could get a six month reprieve during which it clears out a massive internal crude glut), Russia was busy capturing market share, and according to overnight Chinese data, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s top oil supplier last year for the first time ever boosted by robust demand from independent Chinese “teapot” refineries.
Russia boosted oil exports to China by 24% from 2015 to 52.5 million metric tons, or 1.05 million barrels per day, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs, cited by Bloomberg. In a blow to Ridyah’s ambitions, the Middle Eastern kingdom slipped to second place, shipping 51 million tons, or 1.02 million barrels per day, little changed from a year earlier.
For December, Russia also held the top spot with supplies up 4.8 percent from the same month a year earlier at 1.19 million bpd. Meanwhile Saudi sales dropped nearly 20 percent from a year earlier to 841,820 bpd, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed.
Total crude oil imports in December hit a record as refiners stepped up purchases ahead of a deal by oil-producing countries to reduce supply and bolster prices, Reuters reports. For the whole of 2016, imports gained nearly 910,000 bpd over 2015, the strongest annual growth on record and mostly driven by teapot buying. While Saudi Arabia counts China’s state oil firms as backbone clients through long-term supply contracts, China’s independent refineries, called “teapots” due to their smaller processing capacity, saw Russia as a more flexible, and perhaps cheaper, supplier.
Over the past year in which China’s growing demand has proven to be the holy grail for oil exporters, “Russia has been tussling with Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Asian nation amid efforts by oil producers to defend market share during a worldwide glut.”
Chinese demand, much of which has been to fill its strategic petroleum resreve, has been seen as a key to a sustainable recovery in prices, while benchmark rates are climbing from the worst crash in a generation amid output cuts by major producing nations. China last year bought the commodity at the fastest pace since 2010 amid growing appetite from private refiners, known as teapots, according to Bloomberg.
The proximity of Kozmino port, from where Russia ships Siberian crude, to Qingdao, where teapots typically receive their supplies, has helped boost cargoes after the processors were allowed to use overseas oil in 2015. “With teapots’ import growth set to continue in 2017 and the expected expansion of Sino-Russia pipeline by year-end, Russia is likely to aim for the top spot again this year,” said Sun.
“Saudis have always dominated the top supplier spot to China,” said Amy Sun, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China. “High imports from Russia mostly can be attributed to growing demand from teapots and strategic reserves purchase.” For the teapot plants, authorized to import crude oil for the first time in late 2015, shipments from Russia’s eastern ports are easier to process, coming in smaller cargo sizes at a closer proximity.
Looking at 2017, Russia may be able to maintain the top spot as it expands exports of its East Siberian-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline blend crude. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is set to shoulder the lion’s share of supply cuts agreed to last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers. Should the Saudis lose even more market share to Russia, it is virtually certain that the kingdom will promptly nullify the Vienna deal, as it scrambles to regain China’s top supplier status in what will soon be a matter of national pride.
“OPEC cuts means Gulf producers take a hit in terms of market share, even though most of their cuts are to Europe and US …Russia has an ESPO expansion coming up as well as supplies via Kazakhstan earmarked for China,” said Michal Meidan of consultancy Energy Aspects.
Angola was the third-largest supplier in 2016, exporting 43.7 million tons, or about 875,000 barrels per day, 13 percent higher from last year, today’s customs data showed. China’s total crude imports climbed 13.6 percent last year to 381 million tons, according to customs data released on Jan. 13. China also boosted imports from South American producers last year, with growth of 37.6 percent from Brazil and 26 percent from Venezuela, the data showed.
Finally, imports from Iran expanded nearly 18 percent last year to a record 624,260 bpd, as Chinese state oil firms started to lift barrels from their investments in Iranian oilfields in addition to term supply agreements.
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.0736 UP .0044/REACTING TO + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/USA FALLING RATE
USA/JAPAN YEN 113.52 DOWN 1.042(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA: HELICOPTER MONEY ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST
GBP/USA 1.2451 UP .0079 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote/PRIME MINISTER MAY DECIDES ON A HARD BREXIT)
USA/CAN 1.3201 DOWN .0013 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT FROM EU)
Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 44 basis points, trading now WELL BELOW the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0736; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ AND TODAY MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 13.64 or 0.44% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 12.61 POINTS OR 0.06% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.73% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED
We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;
1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.
2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)
3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.
These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>
The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 246.89 OR 1.29%
Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 12.61 OR 0.06% Shanghai CLOSED UP 13.64 POINTS OR 0.44% / Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.73% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 246.88 OR 1.29% / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $1214.60
silver:$17.17
Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.454% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING
The 30 yr bond yield 3.037, DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 100.40 DOWN 23 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.79% DOWN 8 in basis point yield from FRIDAY (does not buy the rally)
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.057%DOWN 1 in basis point yield from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.425% DOWN 8 IN basis point yield from FRIDAY (this is totally nuts!!/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.993 DOWN 3 POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 43 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.363% DOWN 4 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0720 up .0030 (Euro UP 30 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 113.11 DOWN: 1.453(Yen UP 143 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2474 UP 0.01004( POUND UP 100 basis points)
USA/Canada 1.3306 DOWN 0.0008(Canadian dollar UP 8 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $52.73
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
This afternoon, the Euro was UP by 30 basis points to trade at 1.0720
The Yen ROSE to 113.11 for a GAIN of 145 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016
The POUND ROSE 100 basis points, trading at 1.2474/
The Canadian dollar ROSE by 8 basis points to 1.3306, WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $52.73
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 9 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.397% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.997 DOWN 8 in basis points on the day /
Your closing USA dollar index, 100.37 DOWN 26 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED DOWN 47.26 OR 0.66%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 84.38 POINTS OR 0.73%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 29.26 OR 0.62%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 75.30 POINTS OR 0.80%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 151.050 POINTS OR 0.78%
The Dow closed DOWN 27.40 OR .14%
NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 2.39 POINTS OR .04% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 52.73 at 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 55.13 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 59.55 (ROUBLE UP 5/100 roubles from YESTERDAY)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +0.363% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1:30 EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today
Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$52.85
BRENT: $55.34
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.399% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.986%
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.0761 up .0069
USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.83 down 1.739
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.01 down 62 cents ( HUGE resistance at 101.80)
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2521 : up 143 BASIS POINTS.
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.363%
END
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
“Sell The Inauguration” – Dow & Dollar Drop As Bonds & Bullion Pop
Was it really that easy – Buy The Election (hope), Sell The Inauguration (reality)?…
The Dow continues to cling to unchanged for 2017 (small caps red)…
Since the inauguration…
VIX was the main play thing in American markets again (but The Dow ended down for the 6th day in the last 7… NOTE – the overnight futures ramp dragged cash up to perfectly tag stops at Trump Address highs…
Europe’s VIX spiked most in 4 months today, above 17…
Notably, Treasury VIX remains notably elevated relative to Equity VIX post-Trump…
With SKEW at over 146, markets have only been more fearful of a collapse twice in its 27 year history…
Breadth remains divergent for the S&P 500…
But Kuwait is in panic melt-up mode…
Bank stocks dropped once again (contining the trend of up-down-up-down started since the beginning of 2017)…
Notably XLF – the US financials ETF – has fallen to key 50-day moving average…
QCOM was crushed but it didn’t really help AAPL…
While the biggest Emerging Market ETF ripped higher today (as the dollar dropped), we note that it suffered a ‘death cross’...
While health insurers all tumbled on the the Aetna, Humana deal blockage, only Aetna held on to losses…
Trumphoria is stalling as financial conditions have tightened post-election…
The 30Y Treasury yield fell back below 3.00% – notably, the 30Y yield has gone nowhere since 2 days after the election…
Treasury yields fell across the curve with the long-end outperforming…(note bonds did sell off after Europe closed)
Two words – “policy error”?
The Dollar Index extended its losses from Friday afternoon, stalling at Fed rate-hike lows…
Yen and Sterling strength were the heaviest weights on the dollar index today but everything was bid against the greenback…
While not the perfect analog, one wonders if the post fiscal year spike in the USD is starting to fade once again…
Crude slide despite USD weakness but copper gained…
Gold closed at its highest since Nov 17th…
Bonus Chart: Turning Japanese?
end
Early trading Monday:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Dow Gives Up Inauguration-Day Gains, Dollar Dumps To Pre-Fed Rate-Hike Lows
Late Friday night:
Trump wastes no time as he signs his first executive order to ease the burden of Obamacare
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump Signs First Executive Order To “Ease The Burden Of Obamacare”
Wasting precious little time, Trump returned from the evening’s inaugural ceremonies and got straight to work in the Oval Office signing his first executive order to roll back portions of Obamacare. While details are scarce, per CNN, press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters the action was meant “to ease the burden of Obamacare as we transition from repeal and replace.”
Executive order just signed by @POTUS relates to #Obamacare.
Meanwhile, Trump’s Chief of Staff, Reince Priebus, has also sent a memo to all federal agencies to initiate an immediate freeze on all new regulations.
Press secy @seanspicer also says WH Chief of Staff Reince Priebus directing federal agencies to initiate immediate regulatory freeze.
As Bloomberg notes, The Congressional Budget Office said in a Jan. 17 report that as many as 32 million Americans would lose their insurance coverage over 10 years if the health law is repealed without an alternative policy in place.
Trump told the Washington Post that a replacement plan will provide “insurance for verybody,” and he said in a Jan. 11 news conference that he wanted repeal and a replacement policy to be passed “essentially simultaneously.”
Changes to the structure of health plans under the law, such as what benefits insurers are required to offer or how much they can charge, could be made through administrative actions at the Department of Health and Human Services or by rewriting regulations.
And here is the brief statement from Sean Spicer:
* * *
As someone once told Republicans: “There are consequences to elections.”
END
Obama’s second executive order/Friday night
The FHA’s fee cut, initiated by Obama in the last day’s executive order was cancelled as it exposed the taxpayer to a dwindling FHA account.
(courtesy zero hedge)
One Hour After Taking Office, Trump Suspends FHA Mortgage Fee Cut
In a move that has sparked controversy among some economists, within an hour of being sworn in, Trump undid one of Barack Obama’s last-minute actions, a mortgage-fee cut under a government program catering to first-time home buyers and low-income borrowers. The cut, which would become effective on January 27, would have reduced the annual premium for someone borrowing $200,000 by $500 in the first year, however exposing taxpayers to further losses in case of a spike in defaults.
Last week, as part of a scramble of 11th hour actions by the outgoing president, Obama’s Housing and Urban Development secretary, Julian Castro, said the FHA would cut its fees. In addition to the mortgage-fee cut, in the last days of Obama’s administration, the White House announced new Russia sanctions, a ban on drilling in parts of the Arctic and many other regulations. The administration didn’t consult Trump’s team before any of these announcements.
While nominal, Republicans have argued that fee reductions put taxpayers at risk by lowering the funds the FHA has to deal with mortgage defaults even though the net impact of such a fee cut is negligible in the grand scheme of things, once the next housing downturn arrives and the FHA is in need of another bailout.
As a result, in addition to his first executive order on Friday night to “ease the burden of Obamacare‘, the new administration on Friday said it’s canceling this last minute reduction in the Federal Housing Administration’s annual fee for most borrowers, which had not been implemented yet. A letter Friday from HUD to lenders and others in the real-estate industry said, “more analysis and research are deemed necessary to assess future adjustments while also considering potential market conditions in an ever-changing global economy that could impact our efforts.”
The reversal was to be expected: at his confirmation hearing last week, Ben Carson, Trump’s nominee to lead HUD, FHA’s parent agency, said was disappointed the cut was announced in Obama’s final days in office. On January 9, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling stated Obama ‘Parting Gift’ Puts Taxpayers at Risk of Another FHA Bailout.
On the other hand, democrats were quick to use the reversal for political purposes. Chuck Schumer took to the chamber’s floor to denounce the reversal. “It took only an hour after his positive words on the inaugural platform for his actions to ring hollow,” Schumer said. “One hour after talking about helping working people and ending the cabal in Washington that hurts people, he signs a regulation that makes it more expensive for new homeowners to buy mortgages.”
Others, such as Mark Calabria, director of financial regulation studies for the libertarian Cato Institute, disagreed: he said it was appropriate for the administration to examine last-minute decisions by its predecessor, “especially when those decisions appear to be purely motivated by politics.”
Some more background on the now defunct proposal:
The FHA sells insurance to protect against defaults and doesn’t issue mortgages. It is a popular program among first-time home buyers because it allows borrowers to make a down payment of as low as 3.5 percent with a credit score of 580, on a scale of 300 to 850.
The Obama administration announced last week it would cut the insurance premium by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.60 percent, effective on Jan. 27.
Some housing industry groups lauded the change, saying it could increase home buying by offsetting recent rises in mortgage rates. Supporters of the reduction were disappointed that the Trump administration reversed course.
Trump’s reversal of the late quasi-subsidy by Obama was quickly spun as meant to hurt smaler homebuyers.
“This action is completely out of alignment with President Trump’s words about having the government work for the people,” said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, through a spokesman. “Exactly how does raising the cost of buying a home help average people?”
Sarah Edelman, director of housing policy for the left-leaning Center for American Progress, in an e-mail wrote, “On Day 1, the president has turned his back on middle-class families — this decision effectively takes $500 out of the pocketbooks of families that were planning to buy a home in 2017. This is not the way to build a strong economy.”
Not really: the decision has zero impact on any homebuyers as the fee cut had not even been implemented before its was overturned, although we would be very concerned about the state of the US housing market if $500/year is all it takes to swing one’s decision in favor of buying a house, and as such would be even more concerned about the pain awaiting the FHA, which was already bailed out once after the last financial crisis.
As a reminder, following the housing crash, the FHA came under severe stress and in 2013 it received $1.7 billion from the U.S. Treasury, its first bailout in 79 years, due to a wave of defaults. To replenish the FHA’s coffers, the Obama administration several times increased the fees the agency charges. The law requires the FHA’s capital reserve ratio to stay above 2 percent, and the agency hit that level in 2015 for the first time since the bailout.
To be sure, during the next crisis the net impact of the $500 fee on the FHA’s capitalization levels would likely be nil, as the FHA would require far greater funding; however the Trump decision does point to a potential conflict of interest between public and private interests. Immediate beneficiaries from Trump’s decision were private mortgage insurers: shares of MGIC Investment and Radian Group erased earlier losses on Friday, trading up about one percent as of mid-afternoon. They closed little changed from the day before. Private insurers, which back loans guaranteed by mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, compete with the FHA for market share and have been critics of fee cuts in the past.
“It is important to ensure that the FHA fund remains strong to support homeownership in the future while minimizing taxpayer risk,” Teresa Bryce Bazemore, president of Radian Group, said in a statement. It was not immediately clear if Radian has any corporate relations to members of the Trump administration.
Some observers, such as Mish Shedlock have called for altogether shutting down the FHA due to various absurdities in the risky system:
- FHA loans are known as being one the easiest programs to qualify for. Applicants only need a credit score of 580, and downpayments can be as low as 3.5%.
- FHA loans have some of the lowest mortgage rates available. Rates on FHA loans are consistently lower than similar conventional loans. This makes FHA one of the best loan programs available.
- FHA loans are also the most likely of any major loan to get approved.
As Shedlock adds, “given the FHA approves loans at lower credit scores and lower down payments than the private market, FHA loans ought to reflect that risk and have a higher interest rates than the private market. Taxpayers bear this risk.” In other words, another government subsidy. We agree with his conclusion: ‘Government ought not be involved in housing at all. The FHA is best shut down.“
end
Monday
Trump warns that the USA is going ahead with a border tax as well as cut regulations by 75%
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump Warns “We Are Going To Be Imposing A Very Major Border Tax”, Will “Cut Regulations By 75%”
One look at the Dollar Index in the last week and it’s clear just how ‘variable’ President Trump’s position has been on trade and so-called ‘border adjustments’. In the space of a few days, he has swung from being against a border adjustment, to possibly being for it, and now today confirming that “we are going to impose a major border tax.” Yen, Peso, and Loonie are all sliding further on the headline…
Trump says he is going to cut taxes massively for middle class and companies
U.S. President Donald Trump told leaders of companies ranging from defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin Corp to sportswear apparel maker Under Armour Inc on Monday that he believed his administration could cut U.S. regulations governing companies by 75 percent or more…
And the instant reaction is a jolt higher in the dollar…
While Yen knee-jerked lower on his statement, it is still the Peso and the Loonie that are hardest hit so far….
end
Trump is busy this morning: he signed 3 executive orders:
i) the uSA will withdraw from TPP
ii) they will freeze federal hiring
iii)we will now limit overseas abortion funding.
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump Signs 3 Executive Orders: Withdraws From TPP, Freezes Federal Hiring, Limits Overseas Abortion Funding
As we previewed and was widely expected, President Trump has just signed 3 executive orders: one officially withdrawing the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership, one instituting a federal hiring freeze except for the military, and a 3rd executive order limiting abortion funding overseas.
Pres Trump signs 3 Exec Orders including federal hiring freeze “except for the military” and withdrawing US from Trans-Pacific Partnership.
A clip of what Trump dubbed “a great thing for the American worker, what we just did.”
As AP reports, President Donald Trump is signing a memorandum to leave the proposed Pacific Rim trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The move is basically a formality, since the agreement had yet to receive required Senate ratification. Trade experts say that approval was unlikely to happen given voters’ anxiety about trade deals and the potential for job losses.
It remains unclear if Trump would seek individual deals with the 11 other nations in TPP— a group that represents roughly 13.5 percent of the global economy, according to World Bank figures.
Trump has blamed past trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization for a decline in U.S. factory jobs.
Trump was forceful in his comments after the signing, noting that exiting TPP “is a great thing for the American worker.”
A second Executive order confirms a federal hiring freeze, “except for military,” President Trump tells reporters while signing order.
President Donald Trump is signing a memorandum that freezes hiring for some federal government workers as a way to reduce payrolls and rein in the size of the federal workforce.
Trump’s directive is fulfilling one of his campaign promises. He tells reporters that members of the military will be exempted from the hiring freeze.
The new president has vowed to take on the federal bureaucracy and the action could be the first step in an attempt to curtail government employment.
The memorandum signed by Trump’s is similar to one that President George W. Bush signed at the start of his administration in 2001.
And a third executive order saw President Donald Trump is reinstating a ban on providing federal money to international groups that perform abortions or provide information on the option.
The regulation has been something of a political football, instituted by Republican administrations and rescinded by Democratic ones since 1984.
Most recently, President Barack Obama ended the ban in 2009.
Trump signed it one day after the Jan. 22 anniversary of the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision that legalized abortion in the United States, the date which is traditionally when presidents take action on the policy.
The policy also prohibits taxpayer funding for groups that lobby to legalize abortion or promote it as a family planning method.
As we laid out before, here is a brief summary of what Trump can (and can not do) on day one. Exhibit 3 lists the President’s “Contract with Voters”, which includes several items that can be accomplished through executive action but involves significant legislative activity as well.
The following is a terrific commentary from Pepe Escobar who gives us a background on how the next 4 to 8 years will play out re Russia and China:
(courtesy Pepe Escobar)
Pepe Escobar: Here’s How The Trump Presidency Will Play Out
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker,
The Trump era starts now – with geopolitics and geoeconomics set for a series of imminent, unpredictable cliffhangers.
I have argued that Trump’s foreign policy guru Henry Kissinger’s strategy to deal with the formidable Eurasia integration trio – Russia, China and Iran – is a remixed Divide and Rule; seduce Russia away from its strategic partnership with China, while keep harassing the weakest link, Iran.
In fact that’s how it’s already playing out – as in the outbursts of selected members of Trump’s cabinet during their US Senate hearings. Factions of US Think Tankland, referring to Nixon’s China policy, which was designed by Kissinger, are also excited with the possibilities of containment regarding at least one of those powers “potentially arrayed against America”.
Kissinger and Dr. Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski are the two foremost, self-described Western dalangs – puppet masters – in the geopolitical arena. In opposition to Kissinger, Obama’s foreign policy mentor Brzezinski, true to his Russophobia, proposes a Divide and Rule centered on seducing China.
Yet an influential New York business source, very close to the real, discreet Masters of the Universe, who correctly predicted Trump’s victory weeks before the fact, after examining my argument offered not only a scathing appraisal of those cherished dalangs; he volunteered to detail how the new normal was laid out by the Masters directly to Trump. Let’s call him “X”.
The non-stop China watch
“X” starts by doing something US deep state-connected regulars, who revere their idols, never dare to, at least in public;
“It is important not to attribute too much importance to either Kissinger or Brzezinski as they are merely fronts for those who make the decisions and it is their job to cloak the decisions with a patina of intellectuality. Their input means relatively nothing. I use their names on occasion as I cannot use the names of those who actually make the decisions.”
That’s the cue for “X” to detail the new normal;
“Trump was elected with the support of the Masters to tilt towards Russia. The Masters have their tools in the media and Congress maintaining a vilification campaign against Russia, and have their puppet Brzezinski also come out against Russia, stating ‘America’s global influence depends on cooperation with China’. The purpose is to threaten Russia to cooperate and place these chips on the negotiating table for Trump. In a traditional good cop-bad cop approach, Donald is portrayed as the good cop wanting good relations with Russia, and Congress, media, Brzezinski are the bad cops. This is to aid Trump in the negotiations with Russia as Putin sees the ‘precarious’ position of his friend and should be willing to make major concessions as the line goes.”
And that brings us to how Taiwan – and Japan – got into the mix;
“Donald shows the Russian tilt by talking to the Taiwanese, demonstrating that the shift is serious. But it was decided to throw Japan into the mix as a predator against US industry, with an attack on Toyota, thoroughly deserved. That moderated the position as the Masters became afraid that the perception of our building up Japan against China would be too much of a provocation.”
So expect China – as “not too much importance” Kissinger prescribed – to be under non-stop scrutiny;
“The Masters have decided to reindustrialize the United States and want to take jobs back from China. This is advisable from the Chinese viewpoint; for why should they sell their work to the US for a dollar that has no intrinsic value and get really nothing back for the work. China should have a car in every Chinese worker’s garage and they will become a larger producer of cars than the EU, US and Japan combined, and their own nation will keep their wealth in their own country.”
And why China over Russia?
“Russia in this sense being a natural resource country with a gigantic military industrial complex (the latter being the only reason she is secretly respected) is exempt from any tough trade talk as they hardly export anything but natural resources and military equipment. The Masters want jobs back from Mexico and Asia including Japan, Taiwan, etc., and you see this in Trump’s attack on Japan. The main underlying reason is that the US has lost control of the seas and cannot secure its military components during a major war. This is all that matters now and this is the giant story behind the scenes.”
In only a few words “X” details the reversal of an economic cycle;
“The Masters made money out of transfer of industry to Asia (Bain Capital specialized in this), and Wall Street made money from the lower interest rates on the recycled dollars from the trade deficits. But now, the issue is strategic; and they will make money on the return of industries scaling down their investments in Asia and returning them to the United States as we rebuild production here.”
“X” remains quite fond of Henry Ford’s business strategy; and that is the cue for him to address the crucial theme: national defense. According to “X”,
“Ford doubled the wages he paid and made more money than any other manufacturer. The reason was that a living wage where the mother can have many children on her husband’s wage was psychologically good for productivity in his car plants, and that his workers could then afford his cars. He thus recognized that in a society there must be a just distribution of wealth that his admirer Steve Jobs could not. Henry’s mass productivity was the wonder of the world and that was what won World War Two for the United States. Amazon does not contribute anything to national defense, being merely an internet marketing service based on computer programs, nor Google which merely organizes data better. None of this builds a better missile or submarine except in a marginal way.”
It’s the Pentagon, stupid
So yes; this all has to do with reorganizing the US military. “X” made a point to refer to a CNAS report I quoted in my initial column;
“It is very important for what is visible between the lines. And that is we are in deep trouble being technologically behind Russia by generations in weapons, which is a follow-up on the Brzezinski quote that we are no longer a global power.”
This is a thorough, wide-ranging analysis of how Russia has managed to organize the best armed forces in the world. And that does not even take into account the S-500 missile defense system, which is now being rolled out and arguably seals the entirety of Russian airspace. And the next generation – S-600? – will be even more powerful.
“X” does venture into deep state taboo territory, as in how Russia, over the past decade, has managed to leap far ahead of the US, “eclipsing it as the strongest military power”. But the game may be far from over – wishful thinking or otherwise;
“We hope Secretary of Defense James Mattis will understand this and that the Deputy Secretary of Defense has advanced technological skills, organizational ability and the foresight to understand that the weapons of World War Three are offensive and defensive missiles, and submarines, and not air power, tanks and aircraft carriers.”
A realist, “X” admits that the warmongering neocon/neoliberalcon status quo – represented by most US deep state factions – will never abandon the default posture of unremitting hostility towards Russia. But he prefers to focus on change;
“Let Tillerson reorganize the State Department along Exxon efficiencies. He may be worth something in that. He and Mattis may be gutless but if you tell the truth to the Senate you may not be confirmed. So what they say means nothing. But notice this about Libya. The CIA had a goal of driving China out of Africa and so does AFRICOM. That was one of the secrets to our Libyan intervention.”
Not that it worked; NATO/AFRICOM turned Libya into a wasteland run by militias, and still China was not driven away from the rest of Africa.
“X” also admits, “Syria and Iran are red lines for Russia. So is the eastern Ukraine from the Dnieper.” He is fully aware Moscow will not allow any regime change gambit on Tehran. And he’s also aware that “China’s investments in Iranian oil and gas imply that China also will not permit Washington’s overthrow of the Iranian government.”
The going really gets tough when it comes to NATO; “X” is convinced Russia “will invade Romania and Poland if those missiles are not taken out of Romania and the missile commitment to Poland rescinded. The issue is not the worthless defensive missiles of the United States but the substitutability of offensive nuclear missiles in these silos. Russia will not tolerate this risk. These are not subject to negotiation.”
In contrast to the “perpetual threat” perpetual propaganda by the US War Party, Moscow focuses on actual facts on the ground since the 1990s; the break up of historic Slavic ally Serbia; Warsaw Pact nations and even former USSR republics annexed by NATO, not to mention attempts to also include Georgia and Ukraine; US deployment of color revolutions; the “Assad must go “ fiasco, as in regime change forced on Syria even including the weaponizing of Salafi-jihadis; economic sanctions, an oil price war and raids on the ruble; and non-stop NATO harassment.
“X”, fully aware of the facts, adds, “Russia has always wanted peace. But they are not going to play a game with the Masters of the Universe that has Trump as the good guy and the Congress, CIA, etc. as the bad guy as a negotiating ploy. That is how they see it. They do not regard this circus as real.”
The circus may be just an illusion. Or wayang – Balinese puppet theatre – as I suggested. “X” advances a crisp interpretation of the shadow play ahead from Moscow’s point of view, allowing “several months to see if Putin can work out a detente with Trump that essentially creates an autonomous eastern Ukraine, a peace treaty in Syria with Assad in place, and a withdrawal of NATO forces back to their line of defense under Ronald Reagan.”
Who will prevail; the Masters, or the deep state? Brace for impact.
end
This is an excellent commentary from Dave Kranzler as he describes what will happen to the movement of single family homes once interest rates rise
(courtesy Dave kranzler/IRD)
The Air Is Releasing From The Hope Bubble
The post-election run-up in stocks was fueled purely by “hope and change” energy. Now that Trump has assumed the mantle, reality will hit like an icy shower. The non-“alternative facts” about the economy continue to show contraction in real economic activity. The retail sales report for December was an utter disaster, especially if you strip out gasoline and autos.
The price of gasoline rose in December, which raised the nominal level of gasoline sales but inflation-adjusted is another matter. With autos, as it turns out based on measurable dealer inventories, a large portion of the auto “sales” were deliveries to dealers financed by “floor financing programs” and not actual sales to end-users.
I found a curious chart and commentary in today’s “Daily Shot.” I love this report because the author wears rose-colored glasses and puts a positive spin on any and all U.S. data. Today he had this graph:
This was presented as a positive. But let’s review the facts. It took $4 trillion in money printing – over $2 trillion of which went directly into the mortgage market – a few trillion in Government subsidies to the housing market including the bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the artificial imposition of record low interest rates and the re-stimulation of the subprime mortgage market in the form of Government-backed FHA and VHA mortgages in order to move the single-family home turnover rate back up to the “long run average.” Think about that for a moment: it took several trillion dollars of direct housing market stimulus to move the needle on the home turnover rate up just a couple percentage points to its “long run average.”
But what happens now? Now that interest rates are rising, the printed money has worked its way through the system and mortgage default, delinquency and foreclosure rates are beginning rise again, what will happen to the line on that graph? Of course, it will head south – quickly and likely below the low it hit in 2010 – unless the Fed re-ups its money printing and the Government throws even more subsidies behind housing. But all that is going to do is put people into homes who otherwise can’t afford them.
The Philly Fed business outlook index hit a 2-year high, however, the prices paid sub-index drove a large part of this at it soared to its highest level since Feb 2012. In addition, the “expectations” for prices received dropped. This would imply that gross and profit margins are expected to drop. In addition, the average workweek sub-index dropped.
Now, there’s two big caveats with this reports, and of course the mainstream media and even ZH did not bother to peruse the entire report from the Philly Fed website but SSJ did bother. First, the survey used to construct the index measures primarily future expectations. There’s clearly a high degree of “hope” associated with the Trump stock market rally. I expect a big reversal of this sentiment over the next three months. Second, the Philly Fed incorporated “new seasonal adjustment factors” into the report. This was disclosed in the actual report for January. As with all seasonal adjustment calculations, the Philly Fed does not disclose its methodology for calculating the adjustments but they are likely designed to overestimate seasonal factors and therefore overestimate the index level calculations. – From the latest Short Seller’s Journal
In the latest Short Seller’s Journal, I take apart the latest economic hopium-infused economic reports and provide several short-sell ideas to take advantage of facts, which will eventually emerge and take stocks lower. The “air” leaking out of the Trump bubble and it will translate into many profit-making trades in the stock market from shorting stocks or buying puts. The SSJ is a weekly report dedicated to helping subscribers make money on the historically overvalued stock market. You can subscribe using this link: Short Seller’s Journal. It’s monthly with no minimum time commitment.
end
Late this afternoon, Trump wins big as the unions now endorse his policies. The unions have always supported the Democrats and this is now a big shift away from the norm. Trump is on a roll!!
(courtesy zero hedge)
Trump Wins The Unions: Teamsters Praise TPP Withdrawal, Labor Chiefs Describe “Incredible” Meeting With Trump
Shortly after Donald Trump made good on one of his core campaign promises on Monday morning by signing an executive order formally withdrawing the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade deal, Trump told labor union leaders that he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement “at the appropriate time.”
The remarks came at the start of a meeting at the White House with leaders of construction, carpenters, plumbers and sheet metal unions, during which Trump pledged to stop trade deals that harmed American workers.
According to the White House, participants included North America’s Building Trades Unions President Sean McGarvey, Laborers’ International Union of North America President Terry O’Sullivan, SMART sheet metal workers’ union President Joseph Sellers, United Brotherhood of Carpenters President Doug McCarron and Mark McManus, president of the United Association that represents plumbers, pipefitters, welders and others. The union meeting also included several local union officials and follows a gathering of 12 chief executives of large companies at the White House to discuss revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing economy.
“We’re gonna get ’em working again, right?” says Pres Trump, hosting photo op with union leaders in the Oval.. “Great meeting,” he said.
“This is a group that I know well,” Trump said referring to the union bosses, adding “we’re going to put a lot of people back to work” and “stop the ridiculous trade deals.”
When Trump said the administration “just officially terminated TPP,” it prompted applause from the labor chiefs (and this time it certainly wasn’t by paid members of the studio audience), who later described their meeting with Trump as “incredible.”
Union leaders speak to WH reporters and described meeting with President Trump as “incredible”
Trump also added that he doesn’t blame former President Obama for decades of bad trade deals, which – at least mathematically – makes sense.
But even more notable, was the dramatic pivot by the US labor unions, historically stalwart democrat supporters, who have suddenly emerged as big supporters of Trump policies, and perhaps no one more so than AFL-CIO President Rich Trumka who said TPP withdrawal is “a good first step toward building trade policies that benefit workers.”
As a reminder, nearly all major unions endorsed Trump’s rival, Hillary Clinton, during the presidential election campaign: they now appear to be shifting their allegiance.
Below is the full statement issued by the Teamsters’ Jimmy Hoffa, who said “Withdrawal from TPP the Right Choice for U.S. Trade Policy”
The following is a statement from Teamsters General President James P. Hoffa on President Donald Trump signing an executive order to formally withdraw the United States from the Trans Pacific Partnership.
“Today, President Trump made good on his campaign promise to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. With this decision, the president has taken the first step toward fixing 30 years of bad trade policies that have cost working Americans millions of good-paying jobs.
“The Teamsters Union has been on the frontline of the fight to stop destructive trade deals like the TPP, China PNTR, CAFTA and NAFTA for decades. Millions of working men and women saw their jobs leave the country as free trade policies undermined our manufacturing industry. We hope that President Trump’s meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on Jan. 31 opens a real dialogue about fixing the flawed NAFTA.
“We take this development as a positive sign that President Trump will continue to fulfill his campaign promises in regard to trade policy reform and instruct the USTR to negotiate future agreements that protect American workers and industry.”
And with that statement, pundit attention will closely follow the Trump-Trumka relationship which promises to be one of the more interesting in US politics over the next few years. As Axios points out, “Trump and top advisers like Steve Bannon see an opportunity to destroy traditional political alliances. Their theory worked in the election: They peeled white working class voters (and many union households) away from the Democrats. Now, they believe that delivering major items for this constituency — watch also for a confrontation with Big Pharma — could further wreck the Democrats’ hold on organized labor.”
end
At 4:30 the USA dollar dumped against all currencies when Sec Treasury to be Mnuchin warns of an excessively strong dollar
(courtesy zero hedge)
USD Dumps After Treasury Sec Nominee Mnuchin Warns Of “Excessively Strong” Dollar
In Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin’s written responses to Senate questions, he made it clear that the “strong dollar” policy may not always be his priority as he noted “an excessively strong dollar may be negative in the short-term.”
“The strength of the dollar has historically been tied to the strength of the U.S. economy and the faith that investors have in doing business in America,” Mnuchin said in written responses to questions from U.S. senators obtained by Bloomberg News.
“From time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy.”
Additional headlines include:
- *MNUCHIN REPLIES TO SENATE IN DOCUMENT OBTAINED BY BLOOMBERG
- *MNUCHIN: TREASURY HAS RANGE OF TOOLS TO ADDRESS UNFAIR TRADE
- *MNUCHIN: WILL ENSURE WEALTHY TAXPAYERS CAN’T GAME TAX SYSTEM
- *MNUCHIN: WILL ADDRESS ISSUE OF CURRENCY MANIPULATION
- *MNUCHIN: `EXCESSIVELY STRONG’ USD MAY BE NEGATIVE IN SHORT TERM
- *MNUCHIN: U.S. IMF FUNDS MUST BE USED IN LINE WITH POLICY GOALS
- *MNUCHIN: WOULD ENFORCE EXISTING SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, RUSSIA
- *MNUCHIN: WOULD CONSIDER ALL OPTIONS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
The reaction is clear in USDJPY…
The Dollar Index has dropped below 100 for the first time The ECB’s December meeting…
Well that about does it for tonight
I will see you tomorrow night
H
Great post. Best summary of the news I’ve seen in weeks.
LikeLike
[…] JAN 23/GOLD AND SILVER STRONG TURNING BACK ALL ATTACKS BY THE GOLD CARTEL/JPMORGAN CONTINUES TO HOAR… […]
LikeLike
[…] by Harvey Organ Harvey Organ’s Blog […]
LikeLike
[…] from Harvey Organ: […]
LikeLike
[…] from Harvey Organ: […]
LikeLike