GOLD: $1355.40 UP $27.40

Silver: $16.92 UP 35 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1350.60

silver: $16.86

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1338.48 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1334.60

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $3.78

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1332.29

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1333.50

discount of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$1.20

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1330.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.00

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1336.25

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1333.80 ???

For comex gold:

FEBRUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEBRUARY CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR:1783 FOR 178300 OZ (5.458 TONNES),

For silver:

FEBRUARY

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 307 for 1,535,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $9168/OFFER $9240: DOWN $682(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $9208/offer $9277: up $724  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

There are 4 tools used by the manipulators to raise stock prices while knocking down gold and silver:

1. increasing the value of the USA dollar index
2.  shorting yen  (buying usa/yen) which is your carry trade ie. buy stocks, short yen gold
3.  hammer vix (the volatility index) which states that everything is OK. ie. short volatility and gold buy stocks
4.  contain the 10 yr USA treasury yield below 2.80%

we are beginning to see fractures in all of them.  today it was the yen that rose and that drove gold/silver higher.

Let us have a look at the data for today\

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1455 contracts from 195,511  FALLING TO 194,056 WITH  YESTERDAY’S TINY  3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING.  WE  HAD MINIMAL COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  2724 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND AND 143 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2867 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2867 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2867 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14,33 MILLION OZ DESPITE  WITH THE CONTINUAL DROP IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY:

35,121 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 35,121 CONTRACTS OR 175.605 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3192 CONTRACTS OR 15.964 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  175.6 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 25.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  423.94 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WITH THE TINY  3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HOWEVER HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2867 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2867 EFP’S  FOR  MONTHS MARCH AND MAY WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  1412 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2867 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 1455  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE TINY FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF  3 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.57 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.974 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A HEALTHY 1595 CONTRACTS UP TO 511,745 WITH THE FAIR SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($3.40). HOWEVER, IN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED  6481 CONTRACTS OF WHICH  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 6481 CONTRACTS AND  JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 511,745. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE TODAY DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN GOLD,  WE HAVE A GAIN OF 8076  CONTRACTS: 1595 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A HUGE SIZED  6481 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.(8076 oi gain in CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 25.11 TONNES)

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 3381 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 108,758 CONTRACTS OR 10,875,800  OZ OR 338.28 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,887 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 988,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 338.3 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 338.30/2200 x 100% TONNES =  15/37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN FEBRUARY ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  971.78 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

Result: A  FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($3.40). IT IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT MANY OF THE DEPARTED COMEX LONGS  RECEIVED THEIR PRIVATE EFP CONTRACT  FOR EITHER  APRIL OR JUNE. HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6481 AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6481 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 8076 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6481 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  1595 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 25.11 TONNES).

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $27.40 TODAY, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT IT WAS BETTER TO ADD TO INVENTORY/A DEPOSIT OF 2.95 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 823.66 tonnes.

SLV/ 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ AGAIN WITH TODAY’S HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE:   NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

can someone please explain why GLD behaves differently to SLV????

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A FAIR 1455  contracts from 195,511 DOWN TO 194,056 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE TINY SIZED FALL  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (3 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 2724 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH AND 143 EFP CONTRACTS OR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF  1455 CONTRACTS TO THE 2867 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF  1442  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS .  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7.06 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE SMALL SIZED FALL OF 3 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD 2867 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 14.20 points or 0.45% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 676.07 or 2.27% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 90.51 POINTS OR .43%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.28%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3444/Oil DOWN to 58.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3444. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3331//ONSHORE YUAN A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE A LOT STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES EXCEPT  CHINA YUAN.  CHINA IS  HAPPY TODAY STRONGER MARKETS IN CHINA 

 

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)EARLY THIS MORNING:  Everything is hotter on the inflation front than expected/sends the 10 yr higher stocks tumble.( zerohedge)

ib  USA 10 yr yields enter the death zone;

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ic) As the long term rate rises, this causes mortgage applications to tumble .

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Then the worst of all worlds:  retail sales tumble just as inflation is spiking and thus stagflation/Dow Jones tumbles

( zerohedge)

 

iii)This is not what the Fed wants to see: a big drop in wage growth and a big adjustment downward in hourly earnings (as we promised would happen).  The Fed needs wage growth or their “2 % inflation story” will begin to haunt them.

( zerohedge)

 

iv)The Bipartisan Senate group has reached a DACA deal but Trump will not like it: no funding for his wall

( zerohedge)

v)You will recall yesterday,  I highlighted the 4 key manipulating tools used by bankers.  Today 3 bears discuss 3 out of those 4 points.

( Albert Edwards)

 

vi)Late this afternoon, Fannie Mae needs another taxpayer bailout after suffering continual losses

(Washington’s Daily Caller/Donachie)

special thanks to Robert H for sending this down for us;

 

vii)SWAMP STORIES

( zerohedge)

 

b)Senior White House aids are stating that Kelly pressured them to lie for him

( zerohedge)

 

c)It looks like the days for White House Chief of Staff are numbered as the Oversight Committee launches an investigation as to how Kelly withheld knowledge of spousal abuse on Sec. Rob Porter as Trey Gowdy has sent a letter as to how he was allowed to work without an interim security clearance

( zerohedge)

 

d)It now looks like the White House will back Kelly

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

e)This ought to be good:  Buzzfeed is suing the Democratic National Committee for the report on the hacking of their computers.  The reason is that Buzzfeed is being sued by Russian oligarch Gubarev who was falsely named in the Steele Dossier. Good luck to Buzzfeed as they are trying to verify stuff in that dossier

( zerohedge)

 PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 213,333 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  225,042 CONTRACTS

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

end

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1455  CONTRACTS FROM 195,511 DOWN TO  194,056 WITH YESTERDAY’S SMALL SIZED 3 CENT FALL IN TRADING).   HOWEVER,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED 2724 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (WITH 143 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2867.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD CONSIDERABLE LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1412  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

1455 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2867 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN TWO EXCHANGES: 1412 CONTRACTS 

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of FEBRUARY and here the front month LOST 86 contracts DOWN TO  56 contracts.  We had 89 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 3 contracts or 15,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery at the comex

The March contract lost 4191 contracts DOWN to 88,272

April LOST 3 contracts DOWN to 96 .

.

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the FEBRUARY 2018 contract for silver

For FEBRUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1783) x 100 oz or 178,300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1147 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 293,000 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEBRUARY contract month:

No of notices served (1783 x 100 oz or ounces + {(1147)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 293,000 oz standing in this active delivery month of February (9.113 tonnes). THERE IS 12.08 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL NOT STAND IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER STRESS AS THE REGISTERED GOLD FALLS BELOW 13 TONNES AS WELL AS HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES LEAVING THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT

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IN THE LAST 17 MONTHS 71 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

FEBRUARY FINAL standings

we had zero inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) into J.P.MORGAN:1,204,605.800 oz  ***

 

total inventory deposits: 1,204,605.800 oz

*** JPMorgan is continually adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 132 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52% of all official comex silver.

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

ii) Out of CNT: 40,263.310

iii) Out of Malca: 24,816.640 oz

total withdrawals;  65,079.95  oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  43.827 million

total dealer + customer silver:  252.730 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 307 x 5,000 oz = 1,535,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (56) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEB contract month: 307(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEBRUARY(56) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 1,800,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month. 

WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 109,910 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 90,215 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 90,215 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  451 MILLION OZ OR 64.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.83% (FEB 14/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.48% to NAV (FEB 14/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.83%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.48%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -3.75%: NAV 13.96/TRADING 13.44//DISCOUNT 3.75%

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

Feb 14/AN ADDITIONAL OF 2.95 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD WITH THE HUGE GAIN OF 27.40 IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 12/STRANGE!!WITH GOLD RISING BY 12.00 DOLLARS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO WITHDRAW 5.6 TONNES OF GOLD FOR EMERGENCY USE ELSEWHERE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH HUGE TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 2 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.31 TONNES

Feb 8/DESPITE THE GOOD GAIN IN PRICE FOR GOLD TODAY/THE CROOKS REMOVED .96 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.31 TONNES

FEB 7/AN UNBELIEVABLE 12.08 TONNES WAS REMOVED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE ASSAULT THESE PAST FEW DAYS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.27 TONNES

Feb 6/AGAIN VERY STRANGE: WITH TODAY’S TURMOIL, THE CROOKS DID NOT ADD ANY GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 841.35 TONNES

Feb 5  Strange,with all of today’s turmoil, the crooks at the GLD decided to add zero ounces into GLD inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 2/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 1/with gold up by $8.00/the crooks decided not to add any new physical gold metal into the GLD./inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Jan 31/with gold up $3.15 today, GLD shed another 5.32 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

jan 30/with gold down by $4.85/GLD shed another 1.47 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes

JAN 29/with gold down $11.25, the GLD shed 1.18 tonnes of gold/inventory rests at 848.14 tonnes

jan 26/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

jan 25/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

Jan 24/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.32 TONNES

Jan 23/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY DESPITE GOLD’S RISE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.67 TONNES

Jan 22/a huge deposit of 5.71 tonnes of gold despite a drop in price/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes. In 3 trading days, the GLD has added 17.71 tonnes/the bankers are now in trouble!!

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

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Feb 14/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 823.66 tonnes

*IN LAST 325 TRADING DAYS: 117.49 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 259 TRADING DAYS: A NET 39.82 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Feb 14./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 13./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 12/AGAIN, WITH TODAY’S HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE, IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, STRANGELY IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 8/DESPITE THE TURMOIL TODAY AND A PRICE RISE: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 6/WITH ALL OF TODAY’S TURMOIL/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 5/ we had HUGE change in silver inventory at the SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 2/we lost 982,000 oz from the SLV inventory /inventory rests at 312.914 million oz/

Feb 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 31/ no change in inventory at the slv in total contrast to gold/inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 30/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 29/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 26.2018/inventory rests at 313.896  million oz

Jan 25/with silver up today and yesterday, the SLV could only muster a gain of 848,000 oz

Inventory rests at 313.896 oz

jan 24/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.048 MILLION OZ/

Jan 23/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.131 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE TINY LOSS/THE CROOKS ARE USING THE INVENTORY TO RAID ON SILVER.

JAN 22.2018/with silver down by 5 cents/ the crooks at the SLV liquidate 1.321 million oz of silver/inventory rests at 314.179 million oz/

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Feb 14/2017:

Inventory 314.045 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.70%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.10%

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

 GoldCore

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

January 1e

– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non- financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit ú200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments

The ducks are beginning to line up for yet another global debt crisis. US mortgage rates are hinting at another crash, student debt crises loom in both the US and UK, consumer and corporate debt is at record levels and global debt to GDP ratio is higher than it was during the financial crisis.

When you look at the figures you realise there is an air of inevitability of what is around the corner. If the last week has taught us anything, it is that markets are unprepared for the fallout that is destined to come after a decade of easy monetary policies.

Global debt is more than three times the size of the global economy, the highest it has ever been. This is primarily made up of three groups: non financial corporates, governments and households. Each similarly indebted as one another. Debt is something that has sadly run the world for a very long time, often without problems. But when that debt becomes excessive it is unmanageable. The terms change and repayments can no longer be met.

This sends financial markets into a spiral. The house of cards is collapsing and suddenly it is revealed that life isn’t so hunky-day after all. Rates are set to rise and as they do they will spark more financial shocks, as we have seen this week.

Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, gave warning about global debt levels earlier this week:

“The areas of weakness in the current system are really focused on the amount of debt that exists, not just in the U.S. and U.K. but across the world,” he said on Bloomberg Radio last Wednesday. “Debt in the private sector relative to GDP is higher now than it was in 2007, and of course public debt is even higher still.”

Consumer debt shows little sign of abating

Total UK consumer debt hit ú207 bn, in 2017 according to Standard & Poor’s. Levels such as these have not been seen since the 1980s. Now a quarter of the country’s poorest households are set to fall further into debt at a time when personal loans, credit cards etc are at pre-2008 levels.

The debt is set to get worse thanks to rising inflation, rising rates, wage stagnation, pension pot failings and just that simple problem of being stuck in a debt-laden hole.

The last financial crisis is primarily to blame for this mess that will no doubt contribute to the next crisis. Low or zero-rate loans, credit cards and finance packages were difficult to turn down by individuals who were struggling in the face of rising inflation and lack of wage growth. They were also repeatedly told by the government and media that all was going really well, they had little reason to believe their finances wouldn’t turn around soon.

But they won’t turnaround. Loan terms are set to get worse and few have enough set aside to help them manage increased payments with the savings ratio now below 7%, the lowest level since 2006.

Even if wages were to rise, this isn’t necessarily a good thing for the overall economy. The panic last week seen across the equities markets was thanks to an increase in wages. Markets saw the data which causes everyone to realise there’s the prospect of inflation rising for which interest rates will be introduced to counter it. In turn,  bond yields rise thus making equities less attractive while raising general borrowing costs. Not good for Joe Bloggs who just wanted a cheap car loan and a credit card to manage life with his family of four.

Mortgage rates, as you were

The subprime mortgage crisis was one of the leading triggers of the last global debt crisis. It followed the housing boom (and subsequent bust) in the US between 2007 and 2009.

Recent data suggests that we are heading towards another mortgage crisis in the US. Mortgage rates have now hit their highest level since May 2014. As Mortgage News Daily reports:

This marks the only time rates have risen this much without having been at long term lows in the past year. For example, late 2010, mid-2013, mid-2015, and late 2016 all saw sharper increases in rates overall, but each of those moves happened only 1-3 months after a long term rate low…So far this month, MBS have stunningly dropped over 200 bps, which easily translates into a .5% or more increase in rates. I’ve been shouting “lock early” for quite a while, and this is precisely why, This isn’t a drill, or a momentary rate upturn. It’s likely the end of a decade+ long bull bond market.

As rates are set to rise further, we will likely see this impact the housing market further. Rising rates make home buying and building less affordable. One indicator of where this will end up is by looking at the monthly supply of homes.

As Mish Shedlock points out:

Note that spikes in home inventory coincide with recessions.

A 5.9 month supply of homes did not seem to be a problem in March of 2006. In retrospect, it was the start of an enormous problem.

In absolute terms, builders are nowhere close to the problem situation of 2007. Indeed, it appears that builders learned a lesson.

Nonetheless, pain is on the horizon if rates keep rising.

Future generations laden with debt

It is a sad reflection on society when it celebrates it current successes which exist purely because of debt burdens left to future generations.

Aside from pensioners today, there is no generation that will not face significant debt burdens in their lives. This ranges from increased taxes due to increased government debt through to university education that comes at an unmanageable cost.

UK and US student loans will be one of the major catalysts of the next global debt crisis. In the US graduates owe approximately $1.4 trillion in student loans, whilst in the UK it is ú100 billion. This may seem as though the UK has little to worry about but in England the average graduate leaves education with over ú32,000 in debt, in contrast the average US graduate was $34,000 (ú27,000).

UK student debt is expected to double in the next six years, it is now the fastest growing type of borrowing and outstrips credit card debt which is commanding far more attention from the government.

The rate of default across the pond is high, the Brookings Institute estimate that 2 out of every 5 student borrowers will default in the next five years. In the UK there’s a risk they will never be paid off as it is now widely accepted that the majority of graduates will never pay off their student debt before it is cancelled 30 years after graduation.

The bursting of the student loan bubble is one that will have far-reaching consequences, as Fortune contributors Rogers and Baum remind us:

The higher education bubble (one-sixth of the U.S. economy) will likely burst with the force of all previous catastrophes combined—a shock wave so sudden, so large, that it gathers the full force of the savings and loan, insurance, energy, tech, and mortgage crashes, creating a blockbuster-level perfect storm.

See through the mirage with gold 

One of the reasons the Fed increased rates in 2017 was because everyone was talking about how well the economy was doing. From President Trump to the talking heads on Bloomberg to the man on the street, everyone was buzzing with how well it was doing. No one was acknowledging that it was coming from an unsustainable bubble. The Fed had little else to do but to raise rates, it helped to keep up the view that the US and global economy were booming.

Sadly, it is all a mirage. Since Friday 2nd February it has begun to disappear. We’re no longer suffering from heatwave, markets are beginning to see what’s on the other side of this seemingly bottomless waterhole – financial armageddon.

Last year there was one asset and one group of investors who saw through the mirage nice and early. This was in the gold space.

Gold that is held in a segregated, allocated portfolio is a key way to protect your savings from counter-party risk in the financial system.  Gold’s performance in 2017, along with low gold liquidations, increased demand for gold coins and bars and central bank purchases suggests that gold buyers identified early on that this really is all a mirage.

END

 

Craig Hemke has been banging the table as I.  He is referring to the huge USA deficits which will cause the 10 yr rate to rise and that will bring havoc to investors on the stock market as valuations falter as well as derivative losses

 

a must read..

 

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA/Chris Powell)

Craig Hemke: What changed on Sept. 8, 2017?

What took them so long:  Idaho votes not to tax income form gold and silver gains

(courtesy Yngelmo/KXLY TV/Spokane Washington

Idaho House votes not to tax income from gold and silver sales

Interesting: a tiny Canadian bank unveils its digital vault for bitcoins

(courtesy Bloomberg)

 

---

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 14.20 points or 0.45% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 676.07 or 2.27% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 90.51 POINTS OR .43%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.28%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3444/Oil DOWN to 58.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3444. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3331//ONSHORE YUAN A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE A LOT STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES EXCEPT  CHINA YUAN.  CHINA IS  HAPPY TODAY STRONGER MARKETS IN CHINA 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

Early this morning:

 

As I have outlined for you in the front of my commentary, one of the 4 vehicles used by the crooks for manipulation is the USA/Yen cross.  They borrow yen and buy the stock markets.  Since the yen costs them zero, it seems like a good deal for the crooks as they seek a positive yield gain.  However this is now beginning to haunt them as the USA/Yen cross plunges to almost 107 flat.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

c) REPORT ON CHINA

 

China begins to shot it’s muscle as they are seeking to replace the USA as the dominant player in the world

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

Exactly what planet is Macron on?  Reforming Islam?  in France?

(courtesy Kern/Gatestone Institute)

Macron Vows To Reform Islam In France: “It Is Time To Bring In A New Generation”

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

French President Emmanuel Macron, in a declared effort to “fight fundamentalism” and “preserve national cohesion,” has promised to “lay the groundwork for the entire reorganization of Islam in France.”

According to Macron, the plan, similar in ambition to Austria’s Islam Law, is aimed at seeking to “better integrate” Islam in France in order to “place it in a more peaceful relationship with the state.”

A key priority is to reduce outside interference by restricting foreign funding for mosques, imams and Muslim organizations in France. The plan’s overall objective is to ensure that French law takes precedence over Islamic law for Muslims living in the country.

In a February 11 interview with the Journal du Dimanche, Macron said that the plan, which is being coordinated by the Interior Ministry, will be announced within the next six months:

“We are working on the structuring of Islam in France and also on how to explain it,” Macron said.

“My goal is to rediscover what lies at the heart of secularism—the possibility of being able to believe as well as not to believe—in order to preserve national cohesion and the possibility of having free religious conscience.”

Emmanuel Macron, President of France. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

 

Macron also said that he was consulting a broad array of experts and religious leaders for their input into the reform plan: “I see intellectuals and academics, such as [French Islam expert] Gilles Kepel, and representatives of all religions, because I think we need to draw heavily on our history, the history of Catholics and Protestants.” He added:

“I will never ask any French citizen to be moderate in his religion or to believe moderately in his God. That would not make much sense. But I will ask everyone, constantly, to absolutely respect all the rules of the Republic.”

Macron’s plan, as currently conceived, is vague and short on details, but appears to involve three broad pillars: determining who will represent Muslims in France; delineating how Islam in France will be financed; and defining how imams in France will be trained.

Representation of Muslims in France

A key aspect of Macron’s plan is to reform the French Council of the Muslim Faith (Conseil français du culte musulman, CFCM), the official interlocutor between Muslims and the state in the regulation of Islam in France. The organization, which represents approximately 2,500 mosques in France, was established in 2003 by then Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

The CFCM has long faced criticism for being ineffective and contentious, largely because the rotating presidency has allowed interference by foreign countries—mainly Algeria, Morocco and Turkey—seemingly to prevent Muslims from integrating into French society. Macron said the objective was to end what he called “consular Islam” and to open the CFCM to “the most integrated” Muslims.

“It is time to bring in a new generation,” said Hakim el-Karoui, a French-Tunisian expert on Islam who is advising Macron on the reforms. “We have seen fifteen years of debate to defend the interests of foreign states.”

The Interior Ministry intends to have its reforms in place by 2019, when the CFCM will hold elections to renew its leadership. “The moment is propitious for advancing the necessary reforms,” said Anouar Kbibech, former president of the CFCM.

Macron’s plan also reportedly involves establishing a “Grand Imam of France,” modeled on the position of Chief Rabbi. The individual would have the “moral authority” to represent Islam in front of the state. It remains unclear how such an individual would reconcile the competing strains of Islam to be able to represent them all.

Financing Islam in France

Macron’s second priority is to “reduce the influence of Arab countries,” which, he argues, “prevent French Islam from returning to modernity.” His plan would restrict foreign governments or entities from funding Muslim places of worship and training imams in France. Hundreds of French mosques are being financed by countries in the North African Maghreb and Persian Gulf.

The new plan would also attempt to illuminate the financial dealings of mosques by bringing them under the jurisdiction of a French law that regulates cultural associations. French mosques currently adhere to a law that regulates non-profit associations, which allows for more opaque bookkeeping.

Macron raised the possibility of revising the 1905 “Law on the Separation of the Churches and State,” which established state secularism in France. The 1905 law, among other provisions, banned government funding of religious groups in France. Addressing the prospect that French taxpayers might soon be asked to pay for Muslims to worship in France, Macron said: “The 1905 law is part of a treasure that is ours, but it did not consider the religious fact of Islam because it was not present in our society, as it is today.”

Macron’s plan reportedly also envisages establishing a so-called Halal Tax, a sales tax on halal products to finance Islam in France. The proposal faces fierce resistance from French Muslims, 70% of whom are opposed to establishing the tax, according to an Ifop poll for JDD.

Training Imams in France

Several hundred imams in France are civil servants whose salaries are paid by foreign governments. Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said the French government “should intervene” in the training of imams so that they are “imams of the French Republic,” not “imams of foreign countries.”

In an interview with Radio France Inter, Collomb said: “We can see that today we have a number of difficulties simply because nowadays everyone can proclaim himself to be an imam.”

Macron’s plan has been received with a mix of optimism, skepticism and derision.

Ghaleb Bencheikh, a French-Algerian Islamic reformist and a former president of the Great Mosque of Paris, said that Macron’s approach was “legitimate” and “interesting.” In an interview with Radio France, Bencheikh said:

“There is a terrible paradox that you have to know how to break. We are in a secular state and this sacrosanct principle of secularism stipulates that political authority should not interfere in the structure of a cult, whatever it may be. At the same time, there must be structure and privileged interlocutors of political power. The Muslim leaders are cautious, pusillanimous, they have not managed this structure. As a result, it is legitimate for both the President of the Republic and Interior Minister Gérard Collomb to insist on a healthy structure.”

Le Figaro noted with skepticism that previous French presidents have made similar pledges which ended in failure:

“Will Emmanuel Macron succeed where his predecessors have failed? The urgency, in any event, is very real. Last December, a Muslim leader from Bouches-du-Rhône declared: ‘The Salafists have taken control of the ground in France. There is a void, notably with the problem of imams who do not speak French.'”

In an interview with Les Echos, National Front Leader Marine Le Pen said she was worried about a possible challenge to the law separating churches and state: “There are a whole series of tracks, some of which are unbearable, unacceptable: for example, the idea of ​​a Concordat, the idea of ​​touching the law of 1905.”

She called for France to take hard line on foreign financing of Islam: “I suggest stopping foreign financing of mosques and closing Salafist mosques. Any foreign imam who makes a speech contrary to the values ​​of the Republic must be expelled.”

Florian Philippot, former vice president of the National Front and a Member of the European Parliament, saidthat Macron’s plan was not aimed at returning to a “secular Republic” but to “protect Muslims.”

In early January, during a meeting at the Elysée Palace with representatives of the six main religions in France (Catholic, Protestant, Orthodox, Muslim, Jewish and Buddhist), Macron announced that he would deliver a “major” but “dispassionate” speech on secularism during his presidency: “My wish for 2018 is that France become, with you, a model of secularism, knowing how to listen to the country’s voices in their diversity, capable of building on this diversity a great nation reconciled and open to the future.”

Less than a week later, however, Macron abruptly backtracked. The speech apparently was “removed from the agenda” because talking about secularism “in the context only of Islam” would be a “fatal mistake.”

Columnist Hélène Jouan accused Macron of trying to play both sides against the middle:

“Emmanuel Macron is credited with holding a subtle balance between unfailing attachment to Republican principles, and absolute firmness vis-à-vis radical Islam.

“The president prefers to evade. I’m not sure that this will last. A tragic event in France would push him, of course, to reveal himself, at the risk, then, of alienating those who would judge, from the right or left, that he does too much or not enough, to lose his position of ‘centrality’ which he thinks he holds on the question. In the meantime, however, he buys time.”

 end

Ray Dalio, an extremely intelligent fellow is betting on the collapse of stock markets and in particular Italian banks and other European banks/entities.  He is buying huge amounts of gold

(courtesy zerohedge)

Is Bridgewater Betting On Stock Market Disaster

On Friday we reported that as it was quietly building out its mega bearish bet, the world’s biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, unveiled its biggest  short position yet: a $14+ billion, and growing, thematic basket of European corporate shorts which includes such iconic names as Airbus, Total, Enel, Siemens as well as Europe’s biggest banks Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Intessa, ING and Banco Santander.

This morning, in its Live Markets blog Reuters picked up on this theme and highlighted that although the immediate stock market reaction hasn’t been huge, traders are starting to digest the news of Bridgewater’s short bets and interpret them as a broader wager on market stress.

As Reuters’ Helen Reid writes, Bridgewater “may be so bearish that they expect a stock market disaster, says an equity sales trader at a big European bank.” That said, one alternative explanation for these big bets against German names could be a super-bullish position on the euro, which would imply problems for exporters. The trader also warned against taking the position of a single asset manager as gospel, however, saying “they’re not Buffett”.

Other theories abound, with a third source suggesting that the range of positions is so broad that it’s difficult to find a rationale to it “and it may just be a bet on fund flows.”

Incidentally, this may address another question that has emerged: why Bridgewater has no shorts on the UK market.

According to data provided to the UK regulator, there are no short-positions taken against blue-chip British companies by Bridgewater, as opposed to German corporate titans. According to EU regulations, short positions bigger than 0.5 percent of the capital of an issuer must be disclosed to the bourse’s watchdog (link).

Perhaps Dalio refuses to short the UK as the market is already very underowned, with little potential selling pressure.

As for why Dalio is short those particular EU names in particular, a trader told Reuters that they’re quite high beta, meaning they are highly sensitive to market moves. “It seems they clearly see the DAX / market a lot lower.”

* * *

Meanwhile as Dalio continues to build his European short, he has been buying gold. According to the fund’s latest 13F Bridegwater boosted its holdings in the two largest gold-backed ETFs last quarter before prices of the metal capped the biggest annual gain in seven years.

As of Dec. 31, Bridgewater raised its stake in SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust, its latest 13F revealed. Assets in exchange-traded funds backed by gold rose for a fourth straight quarter in December, the longest expansion since 2012.

As Bloomberg reminds us, in August, Dalio recommended investors consider placing 5 percent to 10 percent of their assets in gold, citing political and economic risks. By the end of December, Bridgewater raised its stake in SPDR Gold Shares by 14,091 shares to 3.91 million shares, the filing showed. Its stake in iShares Gold rose by 34,792 shares to 11.3 million shares, according to the filing.

As a reminder, on Monday morning in a linkedin blog post, Dalio appeared to dramatically reverse his outlook and changed his perspective on the economy, saying that much had changed in the past 10 days, suggesting that the economy is far further down the business cycle than he had assumed previously. Of course, the cycle ends with a recession and a market crash, and that’s Dalio appears to be hedging against with every passing day.

 end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This will be deadly to the USA dollar as Russia is now ready to turn off the SWIFT button.  SWIFT is the way that currency is wired across the globe.  Russia has its own system being developed.  This would mean less demand for dollars and eventually there will be no home for those dollars except the uSA and that is when they will experience huge inflation

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russian Deputy PM: Our Banks Are Ready To Turn Off SWIFT

Russian financial institutions are prepared to survive without access to SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) – the global dollar-based interbank payments network – should the US and European Union follow through with threats to cut it off, according to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

“Certainly, it is unpleasant, as it will prove a stumbling block for companies and banks, and will slow down work. It will be inevitable to deploy some aged technologies for information transfer and calculations. However, the companies are technically and psychologically ready for the shutdown as this threat was repeatedly voiced,” Dvorkovich said, according to TASS and RT, adding that such a dramatic step would negatively corporations doing business in the US and Europe.

“In general, disconnecting Russia from SWIFT would be a crazy step on the part of our Western partners. It is obvious that for the companies which work in Europe and the US it would be harmful. And this applies not only to the shutdown of the service,” he said.

The US and European Union have been periodically threatening to disconnect Russia from SWIFT since 2014 (over SWIFT’s own objections), when the conflict in Ukraine flared up and the two powers introduced the first round of international penalties against Moscow for its alleged involvement.

As a reminder, at the time, the MasterCard payment system stopped serving clients of seven Russian banks without warning after Washington imposed its first set of sanctions on Moscow in 2014. In response, the Russian government ordered the creation of a national payment system. With the support of the country’s banking system, the Mir charge card was introduced in 2015, although there is no data on what its adoption rate has been in the following years.

This wouldn’t be the first time the US has threatened to cut off a major ally from the international banking system (indeed, it’s a threat frequently leveraged against nations, like Pakistan, which will be added to a list of terrorism financing nations).  Over the summer, it even threatened to expel China, it’s largest trading partner, from using dollars if it didn’t crack down on North Korea. In September, Russia received its latest SWIFT expulsion threat if it violated North Korea sanctions.

In 2017, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina told President Vladimir Putin that Russia’s banking sector had been provided with all the necessary conditions for operating lenders and payment systems in case of disconnection from SWIFT. According to the regulator, 90 percent of ATMs in Russia were ready to accept the Mir payment system, a domestic version of Visa and MasterCard.

SWIFT was famously the object of a hacking attack – since blamed on shadowy North Korean agents – that saw $81 million of reserves from the central bank of Bangladesh stolen from the New York Fed and transferred to Manila, where it was later traced to Macau and then vanished. No perpetrator has ever been identified.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Is history repeating itself as the higher price of oil has caused a huge production increase in shale which in turn has caused a huge glut of oil on the market

(courtesy Nick Cunningham/OilPrice.com)

Is History Repeating Itself In Oil Markets?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Back in 2014, U.S. shale production was growing so fast that it ended up crashing the market. Now, history could be repeating itself…

That was the warning from the International Energy Agency, which said in its latest Oil Market Report that a “second wave” of shale supply threatens another downturn.

Total global oil supply is expected to grow faster than demand this year, which could lead to another downturn. It’s a conclusion that the IEA tried to emphasize in previous reports, but the message finally seems to be sinking in.

The extraordinary run up in benchmark prices in December and January came to a startling end two weeks ago. Part of the reason was because of the broader market turmoil in equities, and part of it was because hedge funds and other money managers had overbought oil futures, exposing the market to a price correction.

But as the IEA notes, the real worry is rising oil supply, which means that “the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.”

It isn’t all bad news for benchmark prices. The IEA noted that due to the OPEC production cuts and strong demand, inventories fell at a remarkable rate last year. The oil inventory surplus currently stands at about 52 million barrels above the five-year average, down sharply from 264 million barrels a year ago. Importantly, while crude oil inventories are closing in on the five-year average, total stocks of gasoline and other refined products have already fallen well below that threshold. “With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand,” the IEA wrote.

(Click to enlarge) 

But even as the elusive “balance” in the oil market is within reach, the IEA says things might quickly reverse.

The reason why the oil market might suffer from a renewed glut largely comes down to soaring U.S. shale production. In the three-month period ending in November, the U.S. added “a colossal 846 kb/d,” the IEA noted, with even steeper gains expected this year. The bearish forecast comes a week after the U.S. EIA said much of the same thing: shale output is rising so quickly that the U.S. could reach 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year instead of next year. By the end of 2018, the U.S. could surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in terms of total production.

The IEA says that the stars are aligning for U.S. shale, with “rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging.”

Some of these figures and forecasts have been floating around for a little while now, but the IEA put the situation in stark terms. The agency says that the current growth trajectory in shale production “is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers.” Supply growth from the U.S. alone could equal total global demand growth.

In other words, shale growth could crash oil prices again, and the only thing preventing a collapse is OPEC sticking with its production limits. Back in 2014, the cartel decided to abandon market management, which precipitated the meltdown. “This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share,” the IEA said.

Another price meltdown isn’t an inevitability. Demand looks strong and could expand by more than everyone assumes. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s rapid deterioration could also take more oil supply off of the market. If OPEC maintains high levels of compliance, the oil market could weather the new wave of shale supply, and return to a more bullish footing later this year as demand soaks up the excess.

But, if demand disappoints, or if more supply comes from unexpected places – Libya’s output apparently hit a five-year high in January – then things look pretty pessimistic. At worst, surging shale supply could bring a rerun of the downturn from several years ago. Time will tell.

end

Both crude and gasoline rise after a smaller than expected crude build but still we have record high production levels

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI/RBOB Spike After Smaller Than Expected Crude Build, New Record High Production

The kneejerk reaction drop in WTI/RBOB overnight on API data was rapidly unwound ahead of today’s DOE data and spike further as data showed a smaller than expected crude build (and smaller than API). However, US Crude production surged to new highs once again.

 

API

• Crude +3.947mm (+3.05mm exp)
• Cushing -2.319mm (-1.7mm exp)
• Gasoline +4.634mm
• Distillates +1.1mm

DOE

• Crude +1.84mm (+3.1mm exp)
• Cushing -3.62mm (-1.7mm exp)
• Gasoline +3.59mm (+1.8mm exp)
• Distillates -459k

3rd weekly Crude build in a row (but lower than expected), but gasoline saw a much bigger than expected build as refinery runs slowed…

As Bloomberg notes, last week’s refining jump was a blip after all. Gross inputs fell almost 500,000 barrels a day and utilization rates sank back to 89.8%, more in line with what you’d expect this time of year.

Cushing Stocks are at their lowest since January 2015…

Crude Production rose once again +20k to new record highs…

Pushing past Saudi Arabia and eyeing Russia…

 

WTI/RBOB prices had recovered much of the API tumble ahead of the DOE data then spiked as it hit…

 end

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

 

Thousands of Venezuelans are seeking food across the bridge in Columbia

(courtesy Mac Salvo/SHFTPlan.com)

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

HARVEY