GOLD: $1314.10 UP $ 2.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $16.48 UP 5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1315.10
silver: $16.52
For comex gold:
MAY/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 14 FOR 1400 OZ (0.0435 tonnes)
For silver:
MAY
287 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
1,435,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5034 for 25,170,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $9588/OFFER $9686: DOWN $91(morning)
Bitcoin: BID/ $9598/offer $9698: DOWN $78 (CLOSING/5 PM)
end
First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est
The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm
First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1319.50
NY price at the same time: 1312.80
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $6.70
ss
Second gold fix early this morning: 1319.50
USA gold at the exact same time: 1311.50
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $8.00
AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 290 CONTRACTS FROM 193,395 RISING TO 193,878 WITH YESTERDAY’S 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : , 995 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 995 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 995 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 995 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.975MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE RISE IN SILVER PRICE (7 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (28.165 MILLION OZ)
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)
9877 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 9877 CONTRACTS) OR 49.39 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2469 CONTRACTS OR 12.346 MILLION OZ/DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 49.39 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.055% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,194.8 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 290 WITH THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 995 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 995 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 995). TODAY WE GAINED 1285 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 290 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 995 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 7 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.42 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .968 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 287 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,435,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 28.165 MILLION OZ )
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 3940 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 497,125 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (GAIN OF $7.05). WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 6729 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 6729 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 497,125. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3940 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN FAIR SIZED 6729 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 2789 CONTRACTS OR 278,900 OZ = 9.67 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $7.05
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 17,429 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 43,162 CONTRACTS OR 4,316,200 OZ OR 134.25 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,791EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,079,100 OZ/ TRADING DAY),
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 134.25 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 134.25/2550 x 100% TONNES = 5.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 2,892.20* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A LARGE DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3940 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($7.05 GAIN). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6729 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6729 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NET GAIN OF 2789 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
3940 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6729 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 8.67 TONNES).
we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD…
WITH GOLD UP $7205 /A CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES FROM THE GLD
Inventory rests tonight: 865.60 tonnes.
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ OF SILVER/
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL 290 CONTRACTS from 193,395 UP TO 193,685 (AND, CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 995 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 995 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 290 CONTRACTS TO THE 995 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1285 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.475 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF 7 CENTS. THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE RISE IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (7 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 995 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 9.83 points or .32% /Hang Sang CLOSED down 386.87 points or 1.27% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR .16% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .51% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3605/Oil UP to 68.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.91for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3605 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3598/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA
i)Trump is not going to like this; China secretly installs cruise missiles on the hotly contested Spratly Islands
( zerohedge)
ii)You will recall that the Dow reversed and jumped 500 points on “good” talks with the Chinese. That just ended as there is no deal in sight. The USA is demanding that China cut its bilateral trade with the USA by 200 billion dollars.
This is not going to happen…
( zerohedge)
iii)And here is the official response that nothing was accomplished and now the next month will be trump’s
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Our biggest derivative banker: Deutsche bank has now shuttered its Houston office as the company sheds USA bankers as part of it’s plan to pare its balance sheet.
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
This is not good; Turkey, a NATO ally rams a Greek warship in Greek territorial waters. Is Turkey ready to invade Greece?:
( zerohedge
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
ARGENTINA
The kiss of death for Argentina:
- Government raises short term interest rates to 40%
- Argentina Peso has dropped 17% this year to 22.25 to the dollar
- huge external debt denominated in dollars and dollars are scarce
- demand for Argentina bonds waning due to high inflation
thus..the kiss of death..
( zerohedge)
7. OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
i)Venezuela
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
ii)The BIS is late on its report for March( GATA)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
ii)Zero hedge discusses the payroll report:
( zerohedge)
iv)Initial morning trading just after release of the payroll report:
( zerohedge)
v)SWAMP STORIES
b)Judge Amy Berman gets it: she will now mull her decision on whether to dismiss all charges against Manafort as she quantified Mueller’s tactics as overreaching. Mueller has two weeks to supply evidence that Manafort was engaged in Russian collusion with respect to the 2016 election. No doubt nothing will come forward and Manafort will finally be set free. This will be a huge setback to Mueller and it certainly will influence the other cases such as Flynn and Papadopoulous and others.(courtesy zerohedge)
c)Trump is about to change his official story on the Cohen hush money payment. He continues to slam Mueller
( zerohedge)
d)Giuliani clarifies his previous comments
( zerohedge)
Trading Volumes on the COMEX
PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 303,246 contracts
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 324,577 contracts
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And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL 290 CONTRACTS FROM 193,395 DOWN TO 193,685 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) WITH THE 7 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 995 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 995. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1285 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 290 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 995 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1285 CONTRACTS
AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX
We are now in the active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 249 contracts FALLING TO 879 contracts. We had 482 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY AGAIN GAINED 233 contracts or 1,165000 additional ounces will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..
June saw a LOSS of 12 contracts to stand at 778. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 237 contracts UP to 141,722. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 178 contracts UP to 20,338
We had 287 notice(s) filed for 1,435,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 4/2018.
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
NIL OZ
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today |
0 notice(s)
NIL OZ
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
364 contracts
(36400 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
14 notices
1400 OZ
0.0435 TONNES
|
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14) x 100 oz or 1400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (364 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,800 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (1.1850 tonnes)
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:
No of notices served (14 x 100 oz or ounces + {(364)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 37,800 oz standing in this active delivery month of MAY . THERE IS 10.382 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.
WE LOST 300 OZ OF GOLD THAT WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS
IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
201,934.53 oz
Delaware
Scotia
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil
oz
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
NIL oz
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
287
CONTRACT(S)
(1,435000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
591 contracts
(2,955,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5034 contracts
(25,170,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)
JPMorgan did not deposit into its warehouses (official) today.
ii) EVERYBODY ELSE: ZERO OZ
total deposits today: nil oz
we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;
i) out of Delaware: 987.800 oz
ii() Out of Scotia: 200,946.730 oz
total withdrawals; 201,934.53 oz
we had 0 adjustment
.
total dealer silver: 67,568 million
total dealer + customer silver: 266.5979 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 287 contract(s) FOR 1,435,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5034 x 5,000 oz = 25,170000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (879) and the number of notices served upon today (287 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 5034(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(879) -number of notices served upon today (287)x 5000 oz equals 28,165,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month
WE GAINED 233 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,165000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS DID NOT MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS BUT ARE STANDING FOR PHYSICAL METAL AT THE COMEX.
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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 45,625 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 71,921 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 71921 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 359 MILLION OZ OR 51.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.70% (MAY4/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.34% to NAV (MAY 4/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.70%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.34%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.50`%: NAV 13.62/TRADING 13.27//DISCOUNT 2.50.
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES
April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES
March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MAY 4/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 866.77 tonnes
*IN LAST 376 TRADING DAYS: 75.40 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 326 TRADING DAYS: A NET 80.90 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.
April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ
March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ
MAY 4/2018: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/
Inventory 324.205 million oz
end
6 Month MM GOFO 2.02/ and libor 6 month duration 2.51
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0FO+ 2.02%
libor 2.51 FOR 6 MONTHS/
GOLD LENDING RATE: .49%
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.50
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.27
end
And now for your totally useless COT report which offers no value to anybody:
First: the Gold COT
| Gold COT Report – Futures | ||||||
| Large Speculators | Commercial | Total | ||||
| Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 209,577 | 102,798 | 66,156 | 179,735 | 311,607 | 455,468 | 480,561 |
| Change from Prior Reporting Period | ||||||
| -16,227 | 13,640 | 11,802 | 4,020 | -25,908 | -405 | -466 |
| Traders | ||||||
| 195 | 86 | 90 | 51 | 53 | 288 | 191 |
| Small Speculators | ||||||
| Long | Short | Open Interest | ||||
| 52,288 | 27,195 | 507,756 | ||||
| 1,751 | 1,812 | 1,346 | ||||
| non reportable positions | Change from the previous reporting period | |||||
| COT Gold Report – Positions as of | ||||||
Our large speculators
those large specs that have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 16,227 contracts from their long side (through efp)
those large specs that have been short in gold added 13,640 contracts to their short side
Our Commercials
those commercials who have been long in gold added 4020 contracts to their short side
those commercials who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 25,908 contracts from their short side (efp)
Our Small Speculators
those small specs who have been long in gold added 1751 contracts to their long side
those small specs who have been short in gold added 1812 contracts to their short side.
end
Now for our silver COT
| Silver COT Report: Futures | |||||
| Large Speculators | Commercial | ||||
| Long | Short | Spreading | Long | Short | |
| 68,528 | 75,724 | 15,403 | 78,011 | 89,989 | |
| 726 | 19,889 | -11,321 | 2,625 | -16,962 | |
| Traders | |||||
| 110 | 64 | 43 | 38 | 34 | |
| Small Speculators | Open Interest | Total | |||
| Long | Short | 194,685 | Long | Short | |
| 32,743 | 13,569 | 161,942 | 181,116 | ||
| 948 | 1,372 | -7,022 | -7,970 | -8,394 | |
| non reportable positions | Positions as of: | 167 | 128 | ||
| Tuesday, May 1, 2018 | |||||
Our large speculators
those large specs that are long in silver added 726 contracts to their long side
those large specs that have been short in silver added a whopping 19,889 contracts to their short side
Our Commercials
those large specs that have been long in silver added 2625 contracts to their long side
those large specs that have been short in silver covered (transferred) 16,962 contracts from their short side
Our Small Speculators
those small specs that have been long in silver added 1432 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in silver added 1520 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions:
a complete waste of time in looking at this worthless trash.
Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.
GOLD/SILVER
Own Some Gold and Avoid Overvalued Assets
We could be heading for a golden age – or a return to the 1970s
The cost to the US government of borrowing money for a decade came within sniffing distance of 3% yesterday.

The US ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 2.96% as I write this morning, having got to 2.99% yesterday.
Does this really matter? After all, 3% is just another number.
On the one hand, you’d be right to think that. On the other, it’s not so much the number as the direction that’s significant.
What the end of the bond bull market implies
If the US ten-year Treasury yield does breach 3%, we’ll be at heady heights not seen since 2013.
The big issue here is that bonds have been in a bull market since the early 1980s. In other words, yields (interest rates) have been falling, and bond prices have been rising.
This bull market in bonds has been accompanied by an almost equally long-lived bull market in equities. Stocks have suffered more painful crashes along the way, but broadly speaking, we had almost 20 years of good times up to 2000, then a crash to 2003, a rebound to 2007, another crash to 2009, and then near-enough another decade of good times.
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So the question now is: if bond yields are really turning up now (having reached unprecedentedly low levels), then what does that imply for everything else?
After all, as bond yields have gone down, pretty much everything else has gone up. That’s logical. When bond yields are at 10%, a property that rents at an annual yield of around 12% is not very appealing. When bond yields fall to 5%, suddenly that property looks a lot more attractive. As a result, more money flows into property (say) and prices there go up (driving yields down).
That’s the basic mechanism at work here. So that, in turn, implies that if bond yields go up, then yields on everything else have to go up too. And rising yields on most assets (bonds mostly pay a fixed income) imply that either prices have to fall or profits have to rise (or both).
For example, if I own a property with a rental yield of 5% and I can get 8% from a risk-free government bond, then one of two things is going to happen: either I push the rent up so that I’m earning a better yield, or the market value of my property is going to slide sharply.
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Or if I own a share that yields 5%, and I can get 8% from a government bond, I’ll either want to see management raise the dividend payout, or at least demonstrate that profitability has risen in such a way that a higher dividend could be funded; or the share price will fall to reflect the fact that you’re getting a better reward for taking less risk elsewhere.
So what does this mean?
What we want is some “good inflation”
The only real way to get sustained improvements in profitability is via productivity gains – doing more with the same, or fewer, resources. So if we’re going to get a productivity boom, then we can cope with higher interest rates and still enjoy decent investment returns.
In this case, rising inflation implies that we are reaching the limits of what we can currently get out of the resources that are being used. The idea is that companies (mainly) then invest to increase productivity and efficiency, and things improve.
So if inflation rises because you’ve got healthy growth which is driving higher demand, then it’s not so bad. Rising borrowing costs might cause problems for over-leveraged companies and individuals. But as long as the broader economic strength is there, then while there will be a few potholes in the road, it’s hard to complain.
It’s true that stocks tend not to like it when inflation starts to risk getting out of hand – maybe around the 4% mark. By that time, central banks are taking notice and perhaps raising short-term borrowing costs, and eventually bringing the whole thing to a grinding halt, as everyone who over-leveraged themselves in the boom suddenly has to cough up money they don’t have.
However, that’s still a problem for tomorrow. Particularly if the Federal Reserve and other central banks (as I suspect) wouldn’t mind a wee bit of inflation to take the edge off the huge debts we’ve built up in recent years.
What you don’t want is “bad inflation”
What you really don’t want though, is “stagflation”. That’s where you get rising raw material costs, accompanied by weak or non-existent economic growth. That’s what characterised the 1970s, and it really wasn’t fun for investors.
This is the sort of environment that could be brought on by global trade wars, say. It becomes harder and more to do business with one another, and it also becomes harder and more expensive to secure the supplies of raw materials that everyone needs. Sales fall, costs rise – that’s a nasty combination.
In a way, stagflation is what you get when an economy becomes less productive. Prices are rising at the same time as efficiency is deteriorating.
Between a golden age and the 1970s
So, getting back to the point in hand, what does the 3% mark portend?
There are three main options. The US Treasury bumps its head against the 3% mark again, falls back down, and we get a recession before any of this can become an issue. We fall back into the deflationary pit. I think that’s unlikely.
The other option is that yields rise above 3% and it’s OK because we’re embarking on a world where productivity will improve. Technology leads us to the sunny uplands where workers and robots working together in harmony creates a more efficient, more profitable workplace, and companies make more profits, and everyone gets higher pay rises, and inflation rises just enough to take the edge off our debts but not enough to make us all miserable. A new golden age.

That sounds nice.
The final option is that yields go above 3% because commodity prices are rising fast. They’re rising fast because globalisation is being unwound. Wages start rising too – but not because companies have more profits, instead it’s because voters are fed up with slow-rising wages and fast-rising asset prices. So asset prices crash and certain groups of workers (the most politically sensitive) get pay hikes, while those on the margins get laid off.
That’s your “return to the 1970s” scenario.
Conclusion
I’m hoping for the golden age. But I’m preparing for the less enjoyable option. My advice on what it means for your portfolio stays the same.
Avoid what’s overvalued. And own some gold.
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GoldCore Editors Note: Given the scale of debt in the global financial system and threatening the global economy, we see stagflation as increasingly likely. In that scenario, gold will likely outperform most assets as it did in the 1970s when it rose 2,300% in just nine years.
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News and Commentary
Gold prices steady ahead of U.S. payrolls data (Reuters.com)
Asia Stocks Drop as Trade Talks Held; Dollar Slips (Bloomberg.com)
U.S. Trade Gap Narrows, Claims Remain Low, Productivity Tepid (Bloomberg.com)
U.S. factory orders rise, but business equipment spending slowing (Reuters.com)
ISM non-manufacturing index slows to four-month low in April (MarketWatch.com)
Don’t Be Afraid Of Fed, Gold Price To Touch $1,600 (Forbes.com)
PREPARING FOR A RECESSION (RealVision.com)
Has the Fed really turned hawkish? Or is it just an act? (MoneyWeek.com)
Global RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist (GoldSeek.com)
Jeffrey Gundlach: Gold to explode (MoneyWeek.com)
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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
03 May: USD 1,313.30, GBP 966.19 & EUR 1,094.64 per ounce
02 May: USD 1,310.75, GBP 960.52 & EUR 1,091.99 per ounce
01 May: USD 1,309.20, GBP 956.37 & EUR 1,087.68 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 1,316.25, GBP 958.62 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 1,317.70, GBP 954.41 & EUR 1,090.79 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 1,321.90, GBP 949.52 & EUR 1,085.94 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 1,325.70, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
03 May: USD 16.47, GBP 12.12 & EUR 13.74 per ounce
02 May: USD 16.35, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.62 per ounce
01 May: USD 16.25, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 16.38, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 16.53, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 16.58, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.57 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Gold Demand Falls In Q1 Despite Robust Central Bank and Investment Demand and Surging Demand In Turkey and Iran
– Smart Money Diversifying Into Gold – One Billionaire Invests Half His Net Worth
– “Blood In The Streets” Of U.S. Gold Bullion Market As Sale Of Gold Coins Collapse
– Most Important Chart Of The Century For Investors?
– Gold Mining Shares Are Speculative Making Gold Bullion A Better Investment
– Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates
– Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland
– Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves
– Family Offices and HNWs Invest In Gold Again
– New All Time Record Highs For Gold In 2019
– Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
– Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors
– London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis
Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.
it think it would be a great idea to look at this!
please read at: https://kinesis.money/#/
(Andrew Maguire)
|
2:57 PM (1 hour ago) | ||
|
|||
Harvey
Here It is my friend! https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.
Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.
Warm regards
Andy
GATA Chairman Murphy, mining entrepreneur Neumeyer interviewed on manipulation
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2018-05-03 23:48. Section: Daily Dispatches
7:51p ET Thursday, May 3, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and mining entrepreneur Keith Neumeyer, interviewed by Ken Ameduri for Crush the Street, discuss the manipulation of the monetary metals market and the prospects for the manipulation to be ended by a reset of the international financial system. The interview is a half-hour long and can be viewed at You Tube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6c3q-ArfYGI&t=2s
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
The BIS is late on its report for March
(courtesy GATA)
(GATA) The BIS press office may be the new Maytag repairman
Submitted by cpowell on 01:44PM ET Friday, May 4, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches
9:54a ET Friday, May 4, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA consultant Robert Lambourne, our expert on the Bank for International Settlements, noted this week that the BIS is late in posting its monthly statement of account for March, which typically contains obscure data about the bank’s largely surreptitious interventions in the gold market on behalf of its client central banks.
So your secretary/treasurer e-mailed the bank’s press office to ask if the March statement was available.
The BIS press office kindly responded just nine minutes later, acknowledging that the report is not yet available but is expected to be posted next week.
Lambourne thought the bank’s speedy response was remarkable, an indication that the BIS takes GATA seriously.
Your secretary/treasurer replied that it is far more likely that the BIS press office is like the repairman in the old television commercials for Maytag washing machines, its people sitting around all day with nothing to do.
Maytag created the lonely character to emphasize the reliability of its products:
https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=rXJ0rAyE_mQ
As for the BIS press office, who queries it other than GATA, which is always trolling for documentation of gold market manipulation?
Not mainstream financial news organizations. A Google search today for BIS-related news items turns up little if anything that is current:
https://news.google.com/news/search/section/q /Bank%20for%20International...
No, mainstream financial news organizations are too scared to inquire or too instructed not to inquire about market rigging by central banks, though these days that rigging is the only “market” activity that matters and its documentation is lying around in the open in various places, freely available to anyone who has an interest in looking and thereby democratizing the world financial system.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3605 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 9.83 POINTS OR .32% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 386.87 POINTS OR 1.27%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR .16% / /USA: YEN FALLS TO 108.98/
3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /USA dollar index RISES TO 92.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1962
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.43/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 68.77 and Brent: 73.91
3f Gold DOWN/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.53%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.25%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.08?????????????????
3k Gold at $1311.40 silver at:16.493 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.11
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.98 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9983 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1943 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.53%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.93% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.11%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
All Eyes On Payrolls, But The Real Story Is The Ongoing EM Rout
While US equities surged on Thursday, reversing a nearly 400 point drop in Dow Jones after several reports predicted that today’s US-China trade talks were going well would have a successful conclusion, hours ago the Mnuchin-led delegation departed Beijing having accomplished nothing. So far, however, this has had no impact on US equity futures (it has hit the Chinese Yuan however), which are hugging the flatline, while Asian stocks dropped and Europe edged higher ahead of the April payroll report due shortly (full preview here).
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was modestly in the green ahead of US payrolls data, with the outperforming bourse the SMI (+0.6%). The CAC (-0.1%) underperforming due to disappointing results from Société Générale (-6.9%). This alongside further financial misses for HSBC (-3%) and BNP Paribas (-2.7%) is dragging on the financial sector, currently down -0.4%. Basic materials and technology companies offset the financial weakness and led gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as the euro slipped amid mounting concern about the region’s economic outlook.
Stocks from Sydney to Hong Kong retreated earlier.
Meanwhile, the dollar initially slumped only to bounce back sharply ahead of today’s main event, the nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am EDT. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, after slipping 0.1% in Asia; the dollar is set to strengthen versus all of its G-10 peers this week, and is heading for a third week of gains.
The euro slipped after economic data from the region continued to disappoint, while the pound stayed above 200-DMA support against the greenback amid discussions within the U.K. government about the need to extend the Brexit transition period. The Japanese yen was the only currency to edge higher versus the dollar on Friday; The Japanese yen was the only currency to edge higher versus the dollar on Friday as Japan remained closed for a holiday, with local Treasury trading shut.
The key overnight news was the lack of news after the 2-day trade talks in China, where the US asked China to narrow trade surplus by USD 200bln by 2020 to halt its subsidies in manufacturing plan; this was revealed in a document issued to China in advance of trade talks this week. This comes as well as Chinese officials believing that the US trade delegations proposals were unfair. The US trade delegation has now left Beijing.
How will the USD react to today’s payroll print: “Given the fears of higher inflation and what that means for the Fed, it will be the hourly earnings data that will determine financial market reaction,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research at MUFG. “But, with equity markets so fragile, it is not clear how the dollar would respond to a strong wage print.”
However, while payrolls will come and go, the big story remains the recent surge in the dollar and the accelerating rout in Emerging Markets, where a bevy of currencies, including the TRY, ZAR, INR, IDR and especially the Argentina Peso most recently, have all gotten crushed, in many cases sliding to all time lows, prompting some to ask if another 1997-style EM crisis is on the horizon.
The biggest – and most important – wildcard remains Turkey, where inflation is soaring yet where dictator president Erdogan has made it very clear any rate hikes will be severely frowned upon. Meanwhile, the country’s FX crisis, which has seen the lira plunge to all time lows…
… is now starting to spread to Egypt.
It’s not just FX however, as Emerging Market Bond markets are now also getting crushed, with the EMB tumbling to a level not seen since the Chinese post-deval crisis in late 2015. A few more point of decline here, and we will have big problems.
There was no instability in U.S. Treasuries, whose yields dropped modestly overnight, trading in a tight range between 2.93% and 2.95%, and Gartman is just 1 basis point away from being stopped out.
In commodities, oil is taking a breather from its recent bull run, with WTI (-0.2%) and Brent (-0.2%) off recent highs. Price action has been supported by the looming geological risk from possible new US sanctions against Iran. Iran’s foreign minister said yesterday that US’s demand to change its 2015 nuclear agreement was unacceptable as the May 12th deadline set by US President Trump approaches. Looking ahead, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will take focus later in the session.
In the latest Brexit news, Ireland reportedly has the support of EU leaders to veto Brexit trade agreement and collapse discussions next month if PM May fails to push through a customs agreement which averts a hard border for Northern Ireland. Furthermore, reports added that EU officials warned that negotiations on future partnership will be suspended at European summit next month until there is a solution to the customs issue. Ministers were told during a briefing earlier this week that UK may not be able to leave customs union for another 5 years as it may take that long to prepare the technology required to operate the border.
In geopolitical developments, President Trump was said to order the Pentagon to consider a reduction in the number of US troops in South Korea, while there were also reports from South Korean press that North Korea agreed to fully denuclearize by 2020.
Looking at the day ahead, in the US the April employment report will be due. The Fed’s Quarles, Dudley, Williams, Bostic, George and Kaplan are all due to speak. Berkshire Hathaway, Alibaba, HSBC, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are due to report earnings.
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
- Cautious trade seen ahead to key US NFP data
- US trade delegation leaves Beijing with no take-aways
- Looking ahead, highlights include US jobs and Fed’s Quarles, Dudley, Williams, Bostic, George and Kaplan speaking
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,627.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 385.62
- MXAP down 0.4% to 172.36
- MXAPJ down 0.7% to 559.60
- Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,472.78
- Topix down 0.2% to 1,771.52
- Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 29,926.50
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,091.03
- Sensex down 0.5% to 34,934.03
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 6,062.89
- Kospi down 1% to 2,461.38
- German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.536%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1967
- Brent Futures down 0.3% to $73.39/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 1.485%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.25%
- Brent Futures down 0.3% to $73.42/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,309.28
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.55
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- The odds of a deal between the U.S. and China reduced — the U.S. delegation, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, asked China to decrease the trade deficit by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020 compared with 2018, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News that was sent ahead of the trade talks in Beijing
- Donald Trump seems set on pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal next week, with U.S. officials suggesting that any initial diplomatic turbulence will be followed by negotiations for a new accord
- The Brexit transition period will need to be extended potentially for years because any new customs regime will not be ready to come into force in time, according to senior British officials; In local council elections, Britain’s main political parties benefited from the collapse of the U.K. Independence Party, but results saw Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour continue to struggle outside London
- President Mauricio Macri of Argentina is starting to try the patience of global investors. More than two years into his efforts to revive South America’s second- largest economy, his government is suddenly being tested by an abrupt decline in the peso
- Bank of England will refrain from raising rates next week but is still set to start normalizing policy, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
- RBA sees slightly higher core inflation and unemployment in 2018 as it edged up core inflation and unemployment forecasts for 2018 and reaffirmed that tighter policy will be needed “at some point”
- Barclays, which stood firm last week as banks tore up their outlooks, has joined the exodus after the purchasing managers index showed the sector failed to “rebound convincingly” last month
- HSBC’s new Chief Executive Officer John Flint announced a $2b share buyback to placate investors as he works to bolster growth
- The euro-area economy looks set for further weakness in May after private-sector activity slowed for a third month in April, further adding doubts on the ECB’s plan to end its stimulus program
Asia stocks traded with a subdued tone following a yo-yo session in US where stocks finished mostly negative although well off worst levels, while the absence of Japan and looming US NFP jobs data added to the lacklustre tone. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with the index dragged by financials and most commodity-related sectors, while KOSPI (-0.7%) also traded downbeat as index heavyweight Samsung Electronics slumped on its re-open from a 50-to-1 stock split. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) conformed to the gloom following another liquidity drain by the PBoC and amid IPO activity in which Ping An Insurance unit Good Doctor failed to set-off fireworks on its debut, however mainland losses were stemmed amid encouraging Caixin Composite and Services PMI data. PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos for a net weekly drain of CNY 110bln
Top Asian News
- Samsung Electronics’ Post-Split Comeback Drags Korea Equities
- There’s a Bond ETF Boom in Taiwan, Thanks to Life Insurers
European equities tracking higher ahead of US NFP data later on in the day, with the outperforming bourse the SMI (+0.6%). The CAC (-0.1%) underperforming due to disappointing results from Société Générale (-6.9%). This alongside further financial misses for HSBC (-3%) and BNP Paribas (-2.7%) is dragging on the financial sector, currently down -0.4%. Some encouragement found in BASF (+1.1%), as well as EDF (+0.8%), whom announced the largest energy acquisition of the year.
Top European News
- Euro-Area Economy Heads for More Weakness After April Slowdown
- Corbyn Has Little to Celebrate in Britain’s Local Elections
- Constancio: Unconventional Tools Should Be Used Whenever Needed
In FX, the dollar remains relatively firm overall, and especially against EM currencies that continue to collapse (ie Lira slumping to fresh record lows vs the Greenback near 4.2600). However, the DXY is still consolidating off recent peaks set before the FOMC (new 2018 high around 92.800), with bulls perhaps wary about getting too carried away after hawkish Fed expectations were somewhat overdone, or at least undone by the shift to a symmetrical inflation target. Technically, the aforementioned new ytd best forms nearest resistance, while there is little of note on the downside ahead of 92.000. JPY: A marginal outperformer within the G10 basket and pulling back further from highs just above 110.00 to test bids/buying interest at 109.00 and briefly below overnight, but with trading volumes still impacted by the lack of Japanese participants. Decent 108.75-85 option expiry interest (1 bn) could come into play on a weak US jobs report or bad news on the US-China trade talks front. AUD/NZD: The tussle down under rages on, and the Aud is stretching its legs having overtaken the Kiwi late yesterday with the cross staging a firmer rebound above 1.0700 and Eur/Usd down through 1.5900 in wake of firmer than forecast Chinese Caixin PMIs, rather than anything fresh or Aud supportive from the RBA’s SOMP. Meanwhile, Nzd/Usd is looking precarious again close to 0.7000. CHF/GBP/EUR/CAD: All softer vs the Dollar after Usd/Chf dabbled with parity again on Thursday, while Cable is testing reported bidding interest between 1.3550-20 again and only a few pips off the 200 DMA (1.3539) on more negative Brexit impulses and another UK GDP downgrade. Eur/Usd capped by its 200 DMA (1.2015-20) and a 1.2000 expiry, but still looking ‘comfortably’ supported ahead of a major Fib (1.1936) and the 2018 base (1.1916). Usd/Cad remains bid circa 1.2800 and toppy near 1.2900, but the Loonie is still suffering to an extent after yesterday’s trade data revealed a record deficit – IVEY PMI due later
In commodities, oil is taking a breather from its recent bull run, with WTI (-0.2%) and Brent (-0.2%) off recent highs. Price action has been supported by the looming geological risk from possible new US sanctions against Iran. Iran’s foreign minister said yesterday that US’s demand to change its 2015 nuclear agreement was unacceptable as the May 12th deadline set by US President Trump approaches. Looking ahead, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count (1800BST/1200CDT) will take focus later in the session. Moving onto metals, gold (-0.1%) prices have steadied ahead of key US jobs data due later today. In terms of base metals, copper has seen modest gains, while the red metal also weathered an early wobble seen in Dalian iron ore futures which slipped 2% at the open during the 1st day foreign investors were permitted to trade Chinese iron futures. Elsewhere, London base metal prices rose today, led by the rise in aluminium, climbing as much as 1.9% having fallen 2.3% in the previous session.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 192,000, prior 103,000;
- Change in Private Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 102,000
- Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 20,000, prior 22,00
- Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.1%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.0%
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
- Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
- Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.9%, prior 62.9%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Today we’ll learn more about the state of the US labour market with special attention focused at the moment on earnings. As of this morning the market consensus for the payrolls print is 192k. As a reminder this follows that much lower than expected 103k reading in March and the bumper 326k reading in February. Random number generation at its finest. Our US economists have a 185k forecast for this afternoon and expect payrolls to rebound from last month’s weather distorted data, especially as the construction sector experienced the largest drop since April 2007 last time out. Given all the talk in markets is about US inflation and wages at the moment, arguably the more significant aspect of today’s report will be the average hourly earnings number. The consensus for that is +0.2% mom which would keep the annual rate at +2.7% yoy. Our colleagues expect a slightly stronger +0.3% mom to send a broadly consistent signal to the stronger ECI data last week (which hit a post crisis high). If this expectation is correct, our economists’ estimate would actually push the annual rate up to +2.8% yoy and just below the hurricane-induced spike in September 2017 that set the high water mark for this recovery. The other important data to watch is the unemployment rate which is expected to fall to 4.0% after remaining stuck at 4.1% for the last six months, the longest streak with a stable unemployment rate since the late 1960s. Our economists note that four percent unemployment could be an important development, as they have previously noted that the wage Phillips curve tends to steepen around this level, suggesting that further unemployment declines will begin to exert increasing upside pressure on wages. Anyway, that data is due at 1.30pm BST this afternoon.
Ahead of this there were a lot of mildly negative news around yesterday which compounded up to create a decent slug of global risk off that peaked just before Europe went home. At this point the S&P 500 traded down -1.56%. However from there stronger tech stocks and White House economist Mark Calabria’s comments on US-China trade talks being “fairly positive” so far seemed to help the S&P recover and to close at -0.23%, while the Dow also recovered c400pts to end higher for the day (+0.02%).
Knocking sentiment earlier, we had Euro CPI sharply lower, some downplaying rhetoric from China and the US about the chances of success at their trade summits, Tesla and AIG falling -8.6% and -9.6% respectively after results, the ISM non-manufacturing a bit weaker, the US bank index trading down to c5 month lows as yields fell, and Argentina dragging down EM with a 300bps hike to go with the same seen last week.
There was a similar mini-roller coaster ride over in government bonds, the yield on 10y Bunds initially increased a couple of bps early in the session to 0.589%, but dropped as much as -6.6bp following the softer than expected CPI print (more below), ending the day at 0.528% (-4.9bp). Elsewhere, yields on UST 10y (-2bp) and OATs (-4.2bp) were also lower while Gilts fell -7bp after a weaker than expected rebound in the services sector PMI.
The Argentinian story was fascinating. Their central bank hiked rates 300bps to 33.25% only 6 days after the same sized move, as the bank took the action to “guarantee the process of disinflation and is ready to act again if necessary”. The Peso dropped -5.6% vs. the Greenback yesterday (-20.2% YTD), while yields on its 10y bond (USD) jumped 30.7bp to 7.535%. Remember it was only around a year ago that Argentina did a 100 year bond. This traded down -1.94 to a cash price of 85.697 during the day. One to keep an eye on.
This morning in Asia, markets are trading lower with the Kospi (-0.64%), Hang Seng (-0.35%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.12%) all modestly down while Japanese markets are closed for holidays. In Beijing, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China are having a “very good conversation” ahead of the today’s meetings. Datawise, China’s April Caixin composite PMI edged up 0.5pt mom to 52.3 while the services PMI was also better than expected at 52.9 (vs. 52.3).
Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The US dollar index weakened for the first time in four days (-0.11%) while the Euro rose +0.31% and Sterling ended broadly flat. European bourses were all lower, weighed down by the stronger Euro and softer than expected corporate results. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (-0.73%), DAX (-0.88%) and FTSE (-0.54%) were all softer. WTI oil firmed +0.74% to $68.43/bbl following further tensions between US and Iran.
Away from the markets, the European Commission has kept its latest forecasts for 2018 and 2019 GDP growth unchanged at 2.3% and 2% respectively. In terms of the recent softening in economic indicators, the ECB’s Praet noted that “temporary factors may also be at work. We will also need to monitor whether…these developments reflect a more durable softening in demand”. He also reiterated that inflation developments remain subdued and an ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Hansson seemed relatively upbeat and sees “moderate wage growth pressure” that will ultimately allow the bank to exit QE.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was mixed. The April ISM nonmanufacturing index fell 2pts mom to a four month low (56.8 vs. 58 expected) but still consistent with US growth being above trend. In the details, the activity index fell 1.5pts to 59.1 but the new export orders index jumped 2.5pts to a 12-month high of 61.5. The March trade deficit narrowed to a six month low (-$49bln vs. -$50bln expected) as growth in exports outpaced imports. Elsewhere, the 1Q nonfarm productivity came in below market at 0.7% (vs. 0.9% expected) while the March factory orders was above expectations at 1.6% mom (vs. 1.4%). In labour markets, the weekly initial jobless (211k vs. 225k expected) & continuing claims (1,756k vs. 1,835k expected) were both lower than expectations, with the former hovering near its 48 year low. Lastly, the final reading for April Markit composite and service PMI was revised up 0.1-0.2ppt to 54.9 and 54.6 respectively, while the core capital goods orders was revised down by 0.3ppt to -0.4% mom. Following the above, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP growth is now at 4.0% saar.
The Eurozone’s April core CPI was weaker than expected at 0.7% yoy (vs 0.9%) and fell 0.3ppt mom. Our European economists believe this mainly reflects the impact of Easter timing on services prices (core goods inflation rose a tenth to 0.3% yoy), so they expect core inflation to rebound to around 1.0% yoy in May. Elsewhere, the March PPI was in line at 2.1% yoy. In the UK, the April Markit services PMI (52.8 vs. 53.5 expected) and composite PMI (53.2 vs. 53.7 expected) were both softer than expected as it continues to show the weaker momentum trend of late.
Looking at the day ahead, in the US the April employment report will be due. In Europe the final April services and composite PMIs will be released, while France’s March trade balance and the Euro area’s March retail sales data will also be out. The Fed’s Dudley and ECB’s Constancio are due to speak. Berkshire Hathaway, Alibaba, HSBC, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are due to report earnings.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 9.83 points or .32% /Hang Sang CLOSED down 386.87 points or 1.27% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR .16% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .51% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3605/Oil UP to 68.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.91for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3605 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3598/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/usa
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG
Trump is not going to like this; China secretly installs cruise missiles on the hotly contested Spratly Islands
(courtesy zerohedge)
Taiwan Livid After China Secretly Installs Cruise Missiles On Contested Spratly Islands
Tensions continue to flare up in the South China Sea, as Beijing has reportedly installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three outposts in the region, as reported by CNBC on Wednesday, which cited sources with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reports. The missiles have reportedly been installed on Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef.

The land-based anti-ship cruise missiles, designated as YJ-12B, allow China to strike surface vessels within 295 nautical miles of the reefs. Meanwhile, the long-range surface-to-air missiles designated as HQ-9B, have an expected range of targeting aircraft, drones and cruise missiles within 160 nautical miles. –CNBC
As we’ve documented again and again (and again and again), China’s military buildup in the Pacific, particularly surrounding the Spratly Islands, a collection of small islands, cays and atolls in the South China Sea, is one of the greatest long-term risks to peace and stability in the US and many of China’s neighbors, who have territorial claims in the region that may conflict with China’s.
If confirmed, the installations would mark the first Chinese missile deployments in the Spratly Islands – a territory with claims by several Asian countries, including Taiwan and Vietnam. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hya Chunying says that the missiles are required to protect China’s sovereignty.
China’s missile placement comes on the heels of an april deployment of radar jammers on the Spratly islands, capable of scrambling military communications and radar systems used by US ships – a clear rebuke to the US and China’s neighbors.
A US official confirmed to WSJ in April that “China has deployed military jamming equipment to its Spratly Island outposts.” Furthermore, the equipment was likely installed during the last 90 days.
The U.S. assessment is supported by a photo taken last month by the commercial satellite company DigitalGlobe and provided to The Wall Street Journal. It shows a suspected jammer system with its antenna extended on Mischief Reef, one of seven Spratly outcrops where China has built fortified artificial islands since 2014, moving sand onto rocks and reefs and paving them over with concrete.
China’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. –WSJ
The move allows China to further project its rapidly growing military influence in the region – most recently approaching the government of Vanuatu to build a permanent military base on the South Pacific Island nation.
“Those who do not intend to be aggressive have no need to be worried or scared,” ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing.
China’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the latest report.
The foreign ministry said China has irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and that its necessary defensive deployments were for national security needs and not aimed at any country. –Reuters
Mawanwhile, Taiwan called the new missile installations “irresponsible,” presidential office spokesman Alex Huang said on Thursday. Taiwan “will not bow down to pressure from Beijing” Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said, but “will work with friendly nations to uphold regional peace and stability and ensure our rightful place in the international community.”
In response to China’s increased provocations in the region, Tsai Shih-Ying of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, asking the National Defence Minister Yen Teh-fa for details surrounding Taiwan’s military program to procure a new modern main battle tank.
Yen told Tsai that Taiwan’s military would soon make a bid to purchase M1A2 tanks, an American third-generation main battle tank — the most modern armored tank in the world, from the Pentagon in the second half of 2018.
Yen also stated that the American tanks could help transfer technology to the island’s defense industry, Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported, as quoted by South China Morning Post.
“The Taiwan Strait is very likely to replace the Korean peninsula as the hottest flashpoint in the region,” he warned.
“In response to the changing situation, Taiwan’s military has also increased its combat readiness.”
“In one or two months, China will hold more long-range military training and increase combined forces operations when engaged in such activities in waters near Taiwan,” Yen said when responding to another lawmaker Chiang Chi-chen about Beijing’s increased military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.
Greg Poling, a South China Sea expert at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, said deploying missiles on the outposts would be important.
“These would be the first missiles in the Spratlys, either surface to air, or anti-ship,” he said.
He added that such deployments were expected as China built missile shelters on the reefs last year and already deployed such missile systems on Woody Island further to the north.
Poling said it would be a major step on China’s road to dominating the South China Sea, a key global trade route. –Reuters
“Before this, if you were one of the other claimants … you knew that China was monitoring your every move. Now you will know that you’re operating inside Chinese missile range. That’s a pretty strong, if implicit, threat,” said Poling.
China’s increased presence in the South China Sea is “a substantial challenge to US military operations in the region,” says US Navy Adm. Philip Davidson, the expected nominee to replace US Pacific Command Chief Adm. Harry Harris.
In written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he writes that the development of China’s various forward operating bases in controversial waters appear to be complete.
“The only thing lacking are the deployed forces. Once occupied, China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania,” Davidson wrote. “In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”
END
You will recall that the Dow reversed and jumped 500 points on “good” talks with the Chinese. That just ended as there is no deal in sight. The USA is demanding that China cut its bilateral trade with the USA by 200 billion dollars.
This is not going to happen…
(courtesy zerohedge)
US-China Trade Talks End Without A Deal After Trump Hikes Deficit Cut Demand
Moments ago, the US trade delegation led by Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin, and which included Commerce Sec. Wilbur Ross, US Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer, and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, left China after two days of U.S.-China trade discussions ended on Friday without a concrete deal, only an agreement to keep on talking.
On Friday afternoon, China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported that both sides reached a consensus on some trade issues, without providing details. More importantly, they acknowledged major disagreements on some matters and will continue communicating to work toward making more progress.

The biggest surprise, according to the FT, is that heading into the talks the US delegation asked China to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $200BN by 2020, reduce tariffs and cut subsidies for emerging industries, according to a document seen by the Financial Times.
The surprise is that the revised $200BN target is already double the $100BN amount that President Trump demanded just two months ago be wiped from last year’s $337BN US deficit in goods and services. According to the document, the US aimed to cut the deficit by $100bn in the year beginning June 1, and by a further $100bn between June 2019 and May 2020.
Some more details on the list of US demands from the WSJ:
- The first U.S. request was for China to reduce the bilateral trade deficit by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020. The U.S.-China bilateral deficit in goods was $375 billion last year. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants China to slash the figure by $100 billion a year.
- The U.S. also demanded that China immediately stop providing subsidies and other assistance for advanced technologies outlined in the government’s Made in China 2025 plan. The initiative aims for China to dominate future frontiers of manufacturing and industry, from robotics and aviation to new-energy vehicles.
- The U.S. also asked China to cut tariffs on “all products in non-critical sectors” to levels that are no higher than the levels that the U.S. applies to imports, according to the document.
- In addition, the U.S. also asked China to guarantee that it won’t hit back at the U.S. for any actions taken in the disputes over intellectual property. It also asked that China withdraw its challenges in this area at the World Trade Organization.
- Chinese officials believed the proposal was “unfair”
By early afternoon Friday neither side had flagged plans to give a briefing on the discussions, and the American team departed shortly after.
According to Bloomberg, earlier in the day Mnuchin said that the U.S. and China had been having a “very good conversation,” without elaborating. While China hasn’t indicated any detail on what it may be prepared to agree to, a senior official sounded a defiant tone ahead of the meeting, and the state news agency warned against “unreasonable demands”, a stark difference to the CNN rumor released on Thursday that the deals would be successful, and which sent the market soaring.
Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a Friday afternoon briefing there’s no specific information on the talks.
To be sure, the U.S. tempered expectations of a major breakthrough from the discussions, which were expected to focus on concerns over China’s state-driven economy, forced technology transfers and America’s widening trade deficit with China. Underscoring the friction, the US trade report released Thursday showed the trade gap with China surged by 16 percent to more than $91 billion in the first quarter of this year.
Quoted by Bloomberg, an unnamed senior Chinese government official said before the talks the government won’t accept U.S. preconditions for negotiations such as abandoning its long-term advanced manufacturing ambitions or narrowing the trade gap by $100 billion. We can only imagine what they said when they learned the latest demand was a $200 billion deficit cut.
During the second day of discussions, across town at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, President Xi Jinping indicated China will continue to embrace globalism, saying it wants to actively take part in world governance. Those who reject the world will be rejected by the world, he said in a speech commemorating the 200th anniversary of Karl Marx’s birth.
The disappointing outcome will probably not come as a big surprise as analysts weren’t very optimistic about the potential outcomes beyond the two countries possibly delaying on the threat of tit-for-tat tariffs.
“Our expectations are low. The U.S. negotiating position is unclear — indeed it’s not even clear if the U.S. representatives have a unified view on what they want to achieve,” Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics in Beijing, wrote in a report. “The Chinese side has already made concessions and won’t rush to make more. The past few weeks have shown that markets can be roiled by tariff chatter, so that’s certainly a possibility in the next couple of days.”
If anything, the meetings were an opportunity for the two sides to exchange their views face to face after the official channel for U.S.-China high-level economic talks were suspended last year.
In response to the news, the yuan declined in the late afternoon, reversing earlier gains, and the USDCNH jumped from 6.3450 to 6.365 as news of the failure to reach an agreement spread. “The market has been disappointed as the China-U.S. trade talks failed to make a breakthrough” said Ken Cheung, Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank, adding that “this outcome increases the possibility for China to curb further yuan appreciation, given concerns over the negative impact from a trade conflict on the nation’s economic growth.”
Having surged on the rumor of a favorable trade talk outcome yesterday, US stocks are unchanged today after the talks ended without any tangible success.
US Trade Delegation Issues Statement On China Talks After Leaking “Aggressive” Position Memo
While the US trade delegation led by Steven Mnuchin that just spent two days in Beijing to achieve nothing, is currently somewhere over the Pacific on its way back to the States, that did not prevent it from issuing an official statement on the event that, until earlier this morning, was the biggest potential upside catalyst for today’s market: the status of US-China trade talks.
In the statement, the Mnuchin-led group said “U.S. trade officials had candid trade discussions with their Chinese counterparts” and added that President Donald Trump will decide the next steps.
This is what it said.
Statement on the United States Trade Delegation’s Visit to Beijing
At the invitation of Vice Premier Liu He and at the direction of President Donald J. Trump, the United States trade delegation, led by Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and including Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy Larry Kudlow, and Assistant to the President for Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro, traveled to Beijing, and was joined there by Ambassador Terry Branstad.
The delegation held frank discussions with Chinese officials on rebalancing the United States-China bilateral economic relationship, improving China’s protection of intellectual property, and identifying policies that unfairly enforce technology transfers. The United States delegation affirmed that fair trade will lead to faster growth for the Chinese, United States, and world economies.
The size and high level of this delegation illustrates the importance that the Trump Administration places on securing fair trade and investment terms for American businesses and workers. There is consensus within the Administration that immediate attention is needed to bring changes to United States-China trade and investment relationship.
The delegation now returns to Washington, D.C., to brief the President and seek his decision on next steps.
The above is a wordy way of stating that the talks achieved nothing, and merely agreed to hold more negotiations in the future. Meanwhile, the Treasury faces a May 21 deadline to report on restrictions on Chinese investment in the US, as part of the response to the recent Section 301 intellectual property investigation
In other words, the clock is ticking. And just to add some more heat, earlier this morning, the US appears to have purposefully leaked the US demands that the US sent to China ahead of their trade talks (this version was leaked on Weibo), and which as the Economist’s Simon Rabinovitch described, revealed “a very aggressive opening position from the US”
For those who missed it, the WSJ summary of the above is as follows:
- The US delegation asked China to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $200BN by 2020, double what Trump demanded back in March.
- The first U.S. request was for China to reduce the bilateral trade deficit by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020. The U.S.-China bilateral deficit in goods was $375 billion last year. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants China to slash the figure by $100 billion a year.
- The U.S. also demanded that China immediately stop providing subsidies and other assistance for advanced technologies outlined in the government’s Made in China 2025 plan. The initiative aims for China to dominate future frontiers of manufacturing and industry, from robotics and aviation to new-energy vehicles.
- The U.S. also asked China to cut tariffs on “all products in non-critical sectors” to levels that are no higher than the levels that the U.S. applies to imports, according to the document.
- In addition, the U.S. also asked China to guarantee that it won’t hit back at the U.S. for any actions taken in the disputes over intellectual property. It also asked that China withdraw its challenges in this area at the World Trade Organization.
In response, and confirming that the upcoming negotiations will be very long, Chinese officials responded that the US proposal was “unfair.”
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Our biggest derivative banker: Deutsche bank has now shuttered its Houston office as the company sheds USA bankers as part of it’s plan to pare its balance sheet.
(courtesy zerohedge)
‘We Have A Problem’ – Deutsche Bank Shutters Houston Office
Just a week after ‘the purge’ began, Deutsche Bank is closing its office in Houston as part of a strategy to pare its U.S. operations, according to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg.
As part of Deutsche’s drastic restructuring, we noted previously,the purge began last week when Deutsche fired 300 U.S.-based investment bankers on Wednesday with another 100 pink slips expected over the next 24 hours.
In total, the biggest German bank plans to cut more than 1,000 jobs, or over 10%, of total US jobs in its initial restructuring phase. According to Bloomberg, the US hosts about 10,300 Deutsche Bank employees, or about a tenth of the firm’s global workforce.
In his earnings call comments, CEO Sewing stopped short of disclosing how many of the bank’s 97,103 jobs would be let go…
… while CFO James von Moltke also gave few clues as to how much of its massive 1.4 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) balance sheet would be shed in the process. Von Moltke estimated restructuring costs for 2018 would rise to 800 million euros, up from an earlier estimate of 500 million euros, according to Bloomberg.
“These cutbacks will be painful, but they are unfortunately unavoidable if we want to be sustainably profitable in the best interests of our bank, our clients and our investors,” Sewing said.
And now, as Bloomberg reports, the bank will now shutter its Houston office, which has over 50 staff…
“We will continue to serve our Oil and Gas clients through our debt and corporate banking treasury products,” Mark Fedorcik, co-head of the U.S. investment bank, said in the memo to staff.
“We remain committed to the U.S. Power and Utilities sector which will be re-aligned under the Industrials coverage vertical in New York.”
A spokeswoman for the company confirmed the contents of the memo.
Bloomberg notes that it wasn’t immediately clear how many jobs would be cut, and how many would be relocated to other offices.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Turkey/Greece
This is not good; Turkey, a NATO ally rams a Greek warship in Greek territorial waters. Is Turkey ready to invade Greece?:
(courtesy zerohedge
Turkish Cargo Vessel Rams Greek Warship In Aegean Sea
In the last three months, tensions between two NATO member states have escalated dramatically – Turkey has threatened to invade Greek islands, Greece has responded, and Greeks now see Turkey as the greatest threat to their existence., but today it appears the situation may have escalated dramatically as Turkish cargo ship KARMATE has collided with the Greek warship ‘Armatolos’ despite warnings that it was on collision course.
KeepTalkingGreece reports that the incident took place at 4 o’ clock Friday morning, South-East off Lesvos within Greek territorial waters. The Turkish-flagged ship had deviated form its original course and fled into Turkish territorial waters. The gunboat was on NATO mission “Aegean Activity” patrolling for migrants and refugees illegally entering Greece from Turkey.
According to a statement issued by the Greek Navy, the Turkish cargo came towards the gunboat, “approached and touched” ARMATOLOS on the left side. KARMATE increased speed and made it towards the Turkish coast. It did not respond to continuous radio calls from ARMATOLOS to stop.
The Turkish cargo violated the International Law of the Sea, breaching safety rules and avoid collision, the statement said.
The Turkish cargo had also ignored visual signals and warning calls from the gunboat while it was on collision course.
The cargo continued its route and entered Turkish territorial waters. Within 1.5 nautical mile, it was stopped by a Turkish Coast Guard vessel that had heard of the whole incident through the radio.
Gunboat Armatolos suffered no serious material damage in the middle, no crew member was injured.
A Greek Coast Guard boat approached the gunboat that continued its course.
The gunboat immediately informed the Greek Navy and the NATO.
The Navy is going to seek compensation from the KARMATE Shipping company, Greek media reported.
Hours after the incident, the KARMATE seems to be anchored off Turkish coast, at the port of Dekili. The cargo had departed the port of Izmir at 10:30 p.m. Turkish local time with destination Tekirdag port in North Turkey.
The behavior of the Turkish captain of KARMATE is considered as “suspicious”, especially if one checks with the cargo route showing it clearly deviated from its original course.
screen shots via marinetraffic.com
Seven hours after the incident and KARMATE’s shipping company has not issued any statement.
The incident comes amid increased tensions between Greece and Turkey with Ankara to challenge sovereignty rights in the Aegean.
Last February, a Turkish Coast Guard patrol boat rammed an anchored Greek Coast Guard boatoff the islet of Imia, Ankara claims it was “under Turkish sovereignty.”
* * *
As we concluded previously, given that Turkey brutally invaded Cyprus in 1974, its current threats against Greece — from both ends of Turkey’s political spectrum — should not be taken lightly by the West.
Greece is the birthplace of Western civilization. It borders the European Union. Any attack against Greece should be treated as an attack against the West. It is time for the West, which has remained silent in the face of Turkish atrocities, to stand up to Ankara.
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
ARGENTINA
The kiss of death for Argentina:
- Government raises short term interest rates to 40%
- Argentina Peso has dropped 17% this year to 22.25 to the dollar
- huge external debt denominated in dollars and dollars are scarce
- demand for Argentina bonds waning due to high inflation
thus..the kiss of death..
(courtesy zerohedge)
8. EMERGING MARKET
Venezuela
end
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1962 DOWN .0026/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 108,98 DOWN 0.121(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3561 DOWN .0009 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.2873 UP .0023 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1962; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 9.63 POINTS OR .32% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 386.87 POINTS OR 1.27% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN.51% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED GREEN
The NIKKEI: this FRIIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 35.25 OR .16%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 386.87 POINTS OR 1.27% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.83 POINTS OR .32% /
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .51%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 35.25 POINTS OR .16%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1310.60
silver:$16.42
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.93% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.11 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 92.555 UP 14 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.708% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.045% UP 0 in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.299% UP 5 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.7970 UP 7 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 50 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:RISES TO +.544% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.19470 DOWN .0041(Euro DOWN 41 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 109.13 UP 0.036 Yen DOWN 4 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3536 DOWN .0036( POUND DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2848 DOWN .0003 Canadian dollar UP 3 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $69.84
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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 41 to trade at 1.1947
The Yen FELL to 109.13 for a LOSS of 4 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND FELL BY 36 basis points, trading at 1.3536/
The Canadian dollar ROSE by 3 basis points to 1.2848/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $69.84
The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3627
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.045% UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.9515% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.1312 UP 2 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 92.65 UP 24 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED UP 64.45 POINTS OR 0.86%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 129.45 POINTS OR 1.02%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14.39 POINTS OR .26%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 65.20 POINTS OR 0.65%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 270.56 POINTS OR 1.12%
The Dow closed UP 322.36 POINTS OR 1.38%
NASDAQ closed UP 121.42 Points OR 1.71% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 69.84 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 74.83 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 62.60 DOWN 40/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 40 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.544% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$69.75
BRENT: $74.94
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.95% THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.12%/DEADLY
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1958 DOWN .0030 (DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.09 DOWN 0.010/ YEN UP 1 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.60 UP 19 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3529: DOWN 0.0042 (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 42 POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.2849 DOWN 9 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.544%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.77 CLOSED DOWN 1.13
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.363% .
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
HARVEY














































