GOLD:$1463.65 UP $3.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:$16.66 UP 5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1464.40

silver: $16.67

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 101/164

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 12/09/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 12/09/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:20:11
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,459.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/09/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/11/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 34
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 101
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 10 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 33 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 120 16
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 164 164
MONTH TO DATE: 11,793

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DEC CONTRACT: 1864 NOTICE(S) FOR 16400 OZ (0.5101 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 11,793 NOTICES FOR 1,179,300 OZ (36.681 TONNES)

SILVER

FOR DEC

138 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2932 for 14,660,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 7329 DOWN 9

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7219 DOWN 112

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2466 CONTRACTS FROM 206,533 DOWN TO 204,067 DESPITE THE SMALL 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; DEC 0; MARCH: 1638 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1638 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1638 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1638 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.190 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR JULY

10.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

18.81 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 3 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 828 CONTRACTS. OR 4.140 MILLION OZ…..

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

17,615 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,615 CONTRACTS) OR 88.075 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2201 CONTRACTS OR 11.00 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC: 88.075 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 2,172.41 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 213.60 MILLION OZ.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER. THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2466, DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1638 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A FAIR SIZED: 828 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1638 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2466 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.61 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.033 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 138 NOTICE(S) FOR 690,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.7

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ// NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC: 18.81 MILLION OZ
THE RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 2128 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 690,989. THE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH A SMALL $0.60 PRICING LOSS ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// /

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,626 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB> 11,626 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 690,989,,. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9498 CONTRACTS: 2128 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,626 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9498 CONTRACTS OR 949800 OZ OR 29.54 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS OF $0.60 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 29.54 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (DOWN $0.60) .THEY WERE HOWEVER UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (29.54 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 71,076 CONTRACTS OR 7,107,600 oz OR 221.07 TONNES (8 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,884 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 221.07 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 221.07/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 5946.76 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE: 591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE 497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE: 568.20 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2128 WITH THE PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($0.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,626 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,626 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9498 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,626 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2128 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 29.54 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A FALL IN PRICE OF $0.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

we had: 164 notice(s) filed upon for 16,400 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

DEC 10/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.23 tonnes

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:

ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV WITH THE HIGHER PRICE

A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION PAPER OZ LEAVES THE SLV

DEC 10/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

end

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2488 CONTRACTS from 206,533 DOWN TO 204,067 AND FURTHER FROM A NEW COMEX RECORD. THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 2 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

FOR DEC. 0; FOR MAR 1638: AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1638 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2466 CONTRACTS TO THE 1626 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 828 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.140 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 18.81 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1638 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2/84 POINTS OR 0.10% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 58.11 POINTS OR 0.22% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 20.53 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 7.0390 /Oil DOWN TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0390 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0372 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

Pork hyperinflation is having a devastating effect on the Chinese economy

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GREECE/TURKEY

Not good: photos show increasing tensions in the Med. Sea as Greek fighters are “locked On” to Turkish warships near the gas fields of Cyprus

(Al Masdar News))

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Trump on the war path against the World Trade Organization as he refuses to add new panel members. He intends to cripple the organization due to unfavourable decisions by this body

(zerohedge)

ii)A must read… Four USA banks are at the heart of the repo loan crisis and this is all due to poor collateral. No doubt failing Deutsche bank is the major reason for this non lending

(Pam and Russ Marten/Wall Street on Parade)

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Wall Street Journal reports that there might be a delay in implementing tariffs

(Wall Street Journal)

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is a very important data point: USA productivity has slumped to its lowest level since 2015

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Major freight carrier, Celadon, bust leaving 3,000 truckers jobless and many stranded on the highways

(zerohedge)

b)Donald Trump seems to have instilled optimism in our small business sector .

(zerohedge)

c)The White House finally announces that we are going to have a Canada–USA-Mexico trade deal

(zerohedge)

d)This is a good Bellwether for determining the outlook for manufacturing: Diesel demand slumps badly as our manufacturing recession rages on

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Very big!! Barr and Durham both issue statements after the release of the Horowitz report. They wanted to object to Horowitz’ finding that there is no real origins to the Russiagate. These guys now and weill see criminal charges issued by them in time.

(zerohedge)

b)have fun with this!!

(zerohedge)

c)Trump wins again: illegal crossings crash to its lowest level since 2013

(zerohedge)

d)More on the Horowitz report: The FBI did not tell the FISA curt that Carter page was a CIA operative and that the initial FBI report had a positive assessment and that was changed by another FBI agent. This agent has been referred to a criminal investigation

(Chuck Ross/National Interest)

e)John Solomon writes that Adam Schiff has violated Attorney- Client and Journalist-Client privilege. This is a scathing attack(John Solomon)

f)The FBI acted in bad faith..It will be Durham who will get to the bottom of the genesis of Russiagate

(zerohedge)

g)Lisa Page sues the FBI and DOJ. I think her suing is a little premature. She still has to deal with Durham.(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2128 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 691,327 ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS OF $0.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,626 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 0 ; FEB: 11,626 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 11,626 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9498 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,626 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2128 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID WITHIN ONE SECOND OF FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT OF JOB GAINS//// (IT FELL $0.60). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 9498 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 9498 CONTRACTS OR 949800 OZ OR 29.54 TONNES. ( PLUS THE GAIN IN TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX 3.166 TONNES)

We are now in the active contract month of DEC. This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year. Here we have a total of 1407 open interest stand for a LOSS of 870 contracts. We had 1888 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE SIXTH DAY, A MONSTROUS+++ 1018 contracts or an additional 101,800 will stand (3.166 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

The next non active contract month after Dec, is January and it saw its OI INCREASE by 1301 contracts UP to 5200 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS OF 5872 in contracts DOWN to 497,085.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 2466 CONTRACTS FROM 206,533 DOWN TO 204,067 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A GOOD 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/MONDAY.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.

Here we have a LOST of 2 contracts DOWN to 919. We had 29 notices served up on longs yesterday, so we GAINED ANOTHER 27 contracts or an additional 135,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of December as they guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

After December we have the non active month of January and here we see that we lost 35 contracts down to 1008. FEBRUARY saw A LOSS of 1 contracts to stand at 72. MARCH saw an DECREASE of 3227 contracts down to 159,468. March is a very active month for silver.

INITIAL standings for DEC/GOLD

DEC 10/2019

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	245,738.172 oz HSBC Int Del Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	261,063.253 oz JPM Delaware Scotia includes 15 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	164 notice(s) 16400 OZ (0.5101 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)	1323 contracts (132300 oz) 4.115 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	11,793 notices 1,179,300 OZ 36.681 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

for the first time in quite a while we have had considerable gold activity

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 2 kilobar entries

I) OUT OF: HSBC: 83,910.061 oz

ii) out of Scotia: 6,543.23 oz

iii) Out of Int. Delaware: 155,284.881 oz

total gold withdrawals; 245,738.172 oz

We had 3 adjustments

i) Out of HSBC. 10,894.968 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and we will deem this a settlement

ii) out of JPMorgan: 513.93 oz was adjusted out of th dealer and this landed into the customer of JPMorgan and this eliminates the pledged gold of JPM

total for this adjustment: 11,408.90 oz or .3548 oz and we will deem this a settlement

iii) Out of Brinks; 7108.158 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11793) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1407 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (164 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,311,600 OZ OR 40.796 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (11793 x 100 oz) + (1407)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (164 x 100 oz )which equals 1,411,600 oz standing OR 40.796 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 1018 contracts or an additional 101,800 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES.… WE HAVE ONLY 38.55 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS.

HERE IS WHAT STOOD DURING THESE PAST 5 MONTHS: AUGUST 27.153 TONNES

SEPT: 5.4525 TONNES

OCT………………………………………………………………………….. 37.99 TONNES

NOV…… 5.3841 tonnes

DEC…………………………. 40.796 TONNES

ACCORDING TO COMEX RULES:

IF WE INCLUDE THE PAST 5 MONTHS OF SETTLEMENTS WE HAVE 11.6934 TONNES SETTLED

IF WE ADD THE FIVE DELIVERY MONTHS: 116.77 tonnes

Thus:

116.77 tonnes of delivery –

12.0482 TONNES DEEMED SETTLEMENT

= 104.7218 TONNES STANDING FOR METAL AGAINST 38.55 TONNES OF REGISTERED OR FOR SALE COMEX GOLD! THIS IS WHY GOLD IS SCARCE AT THE COMEX.

true registered gold (total registered – pledged) 1,239,399.20 oz or 38.55

total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold; 8,789,084.555 oz 273.37 tonnes

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC .

INITIAL standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.

DEC 10 2019

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	60,210.500 oz Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	1,120,849.500 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	83,680.531 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	138 CONTRACT(S) (690,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	781 contracts 3,905,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2932 contracts 14,660,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) Into Brinks: 512,613.700 oz

ii) Into CNT: 608,235.800 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 83,680.500 oz

total dealer silver: 86.186 million

total dealer + customer silver: 315.925 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 138 contract(s) FOR 690,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2932 x 5,000 oz = 14,660,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (919) and the number of notices served upon today 138 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 2932 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (919)- number of notices served upon today (138) x 5000 oz equals 18,565,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

We gained 27 contracts or an additional 135,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 49,478 CONTRACTS //

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 57,068 CONTRACTS..

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 57,068 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 285 million OZ 40.7.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.51% ((DEC 10/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.27% to NAV (DEC 10/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.51%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.50 TRADING 14.02///DISCOUNT 3,31

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE: A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 10/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 721 TRADING DAYS: 51.02 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 621 TRADING DAYS: A NET 116.03 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/ WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.85/ and libor 6 month duration 1.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .03

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.91%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.94

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = +.03

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Trump on the war path against the World Trade Organization as he refuses to add new panel members. He intends to cripple the organization due to unfavourable decisions by this body

(zerohedge)

Trump cripples World Trade Organization as trade war rages

Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-12-09 16:51. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ana Swanson
The New York Times
Monday, December 9, 2019

WASHINGTON — The U.S. has spent two years chipping away at the World Trade Organization, criticizing it as unfair, starving it of personnel, and disregarding its authority, as President Donald Trump seeks to upend the global trade system.

This week the Trump administration is expected to go one step further and effectively cripple the organization’s system for enforcing its rules — even as Trump’s widening trade war has thrown global commerce into disarray and another tariff increase on Chinese goods set for next weekend could send markets reeling.

…

Over the past two years Washington has blocked the WTO from appointing new members to a crucial panel that hears appeals in trade disputes. Only three members are left on the seven-member body, the minimum needed to hear a case, and two members’ terms expire Tuesday. With the administration blocking any replacements, there will be no official resolution for many international trade disputes.

The loss of the world’s primary trade referee could turn the typically deliberate process of resolving international disputes into a free-for-all, paving the way for an outbreak of tit-for-tat tariff wars. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-cripples-wto-trade-war-131715672.html

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

A must read… Four USA banks are at the heart of the repo loan crisis and this is all due to poor collateral. No doubt failing Deutsche bank is the major reason for this non lending

(Pam and Russ Marten/Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: BIS bombshell — 4 U.S. banks are at heart of repo loan crisis

Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2019-12-09 18:43. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, December 9, 2019

Yesterday the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) dropped a bombshell report that torpedoed the Federal Reserve’s official narrative on what has caused the overnight lending market (repo loan market) on Wall Street to seize up since September 17, leading to more than $3 trillion in cumulative loans from the New York Fed as lender of last resort.

…

The Federal Reserve has said the repo crisis was a result of corporations draining liquidity from the system to pay their quarterly tax payments alongside a large auction of U.S. Treasury securities settling and adding to the cash drain. That excuse was clearly bogus since the Fed has provided hundreds of billions of dollars weekly into the repo market since September 17 while stating that it plans to continue this activity into next year.

The BIS report dropped the bombshell that the “US repo markets currently rely heavily on four banks as marginal lenders.” Curiously, the BIS report was too timid to name the banks. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/12/bis-drops-a-bombshell-four-u-s-me…

* * *

BIS Drops a Bombshell: Four U.S. Mega Banks Are Core of Repo Loan Crisis

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 9, 2019 Yesterday, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) dropped a bombshell report that torpedoed the Federal Reserve’s official narrative on what has caused the overnight lending market (repo loan market) on Wall Street to seize up since September 17, leading to more than $3 trillion in cumulative loans from the New York Fed as lender of last resort.

Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo.

Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo. (Source: Office of Financial Research.

The Federal Reserve has said the repo crisis was a result of corporations draining liquidity from the system to pay their quarterly tax payments alongside a large auction of U.S. Treasury securities settling and adding to the cash drain. That excuse was clearly bogus since the Fed has provided hundreds of billions of dollars weekly into the repo market since September 17, while stating that it plans to continue this activity into next year.

The BIS report dropped the bombshell that the “US repo markets currently rely heavily on four banks as marginal lenders.” Curiously, the BIS report was too timid to name the banks.

As Wall Street On Parade has regularly pointed out, there are more than 5,000 Federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. but the bulk of the assets, derivatives and risk to U.S. financial stability are concentrated at just a handful of Wall Street’s “universal” banks — those making high risk trading gambles while also owning federally-insured, deposit taking banks. Ranked by assets, as of June 30, 2019, those are the bank holding companies of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs Group, and Morgan Stanley. Those six Wall Street banks hold $8.9 trillion of the $18.56 trillion in assets at the 5,213 federally-insured banks and savings associations in the U.S. That’s six banks holding 48 percent of the total assets of 5,213 banks.

The risks posed by a handful of banks in the derivatives market is even more concentrated. According to a quarterly report from the federal regulator of national banks, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), just five banks control 82 percent of the $280 trillion in notional (face amount) of derivatives at the 25 largest bank holding companies. Derivatives played a critical role in blowing up Wall Street banks in 2008 and resulted in the largest taxpayer and Federal Reserve bailout of any industry in U.S. history.

Despite that epic crisis, which produced the worst economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression, Wall Street lobbyists have continued to stymie meaningful reform and have actually convinced the Trump administration to engage in weakening the inadequate regulations that Congress passed in 2010 under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation.

One of the myriad ways that Dodd-Frank has been weakened was to gut the staffing and budget of the Office of Financial Research (OFR) which was created under Dodd-Frank to provide an early warning system of emerging risks to financial stability in the U.S. banking system.

OFR provided a dire warning of the risks of bank concentration in a report it issued in 2015. The OFR researchers found:

“The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system. Five of the U.S. banks had particularly high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.”

The OFR researchers also found in the same report that:

“A bank that has large foreign assets and large intrafinancial system liabilities is a potential source of spillover risk. If a large loss in value in foreign assets caused such an institution to fail, the losses could be transmitted to the rest of the U.S. financial system. Five banks had large foreign assets (exceeding $300 billion) and Citigroup and JPMorgan had large figures for both foreign assets and intrafinancial system liabilities…Again, the largest banks are the most interconnected and they are involved in the most cross-jurisdictional activity.”

This interconnectedness of a handful of U.S. mega banks was called out earlier in a 2011 paper on the 2008 financial crisis prepared for the Money and Banking Conference in Buenos Aires by financial researcher Jane D’Arista. She wrote:

“Interconnectedness is one of the critical clusters of related causes of the crisis. It resulted from the extraordinary growth in indebtedness within the financial sector that facilitated higher leverage ratios and rising levels of speculative trading for institutions’ own accounts. As the amount of short-term borrowing and lending among financial institutions expanded, markets for repurchase agreements and commercial paper became primary funding sources, forging a chain that linked the fortunes of many institutions and various financial sectors to the performance of a few of the largest and exacerbated systemic vulnerability. Increased profits and compensation masked the growing vulnerabilities in the system but the crisis outcome was inevitable given:

— the buildup of unsustainable debt for individual institutions and the system as a whole;

— systemic undercapitalization as inflated on- and off-balance sheet positions increased risk from falling prices and the potential loss of funding, and;

— the heightened potential for loss of confidence as opaque markets for funding and OTC derivatives increased uncertainty about prices, volumes of transactions and the positions of counterparties.”

As proof that market stresses are growing, this morning the New York Fed offered $25 billion in a 28-day repo loan to 24 of Wall Street’s trading houses (primary dealers). There was an outsized demand for that money with bids submitted for $43 billion. The New York Fed provided only its planned $25 billion in loans, meaning that $18 billion in needed liquidity went unfilled. In addition, the New York Fed provided $56.40 billion in an overnight repo loan.

The problem with all of the narratives that have surfaced thus far on the repo loan crisis is that this market historically has turned over $1 trillion daily in loans in the U.S. Since the Fed is only providing approximately $100 billion a day, clearly the biggest banks and money market funds are making loans to those counterparties that they believe are good risks. This supports the thesis from Wall Street On Parade that the biggest banks are backing away from lending to those institutions that are deemed a bad risk or are heavily interconnected to an institution deemed to be a bad risk – even for an overnight loan since the institution could file for intraday bankruptcy.

This is precisely the scenario that led to credit seizing up and banks refusing to lend to one another in 2008.

Adding to the thesis that the crisis is not improving, during questioning by the House Financial Services Committee last Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that the New York Fed was called before the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC) last week to answer questions on what has happened to the proper functioning of the repo loan market. F-SOC is made up of the heads of every major federal regulator of banks and Wall Street. It was also created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation to prevent another epic financial crisis like that of 2008.

end

iii) Other physical stories:

From fellow supporter and physical expert “J. Johnson”

(courtesy J. Johnson)

The International Money Laundering Cart of Suppression VS. Silver and Gold

Posted December 10th, 2019 at 9:35 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Heads Up! J.J’s report will not be on Steemit anymore…

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

Gold is doing it again, showing up on my screen in green (day 2), with the trade at $1,470.80 close to the high at $1,472.50 with the low at $1,464.20. Silver is following with its trade at $16.70, up 5.8 cents with the high at $16.735 and the low at $16.625. The real reason for the stale trades in precious metals is the US Dollar, and all the money laundering involved to keep the fiat elevated, with the trade at 97.535 down 7.4 points after dipping to 97.465 with the high at 97.630. All of this as done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.

Our Emerging Markets Currency Watch shows rising prices in Gold and a very close shave for Silver. For instance, Venezuela’s Bolivar now has Gold’s price at 14,689.62 giving the holder a 19.98 Bolivar gain with Silver at 166.791 shaving off 0.05 of a Bolivar. In Argentina, their Peso now has Gold priced at 88,118.97 proving the holders gained 178.08 Peso’s with Silver’s price at 1,000.41 taking away 0.19 of a Peso. The Turkish Lira now has Gold’s value pegged at 8,528.12 Lira, gaining 9.26 with Silver now trading at 96.8319 barely shaving 0.0353 off of yesterday’s sale price.

The problem with all manipulations within the physical Commodities (not the fiat instruments) lies with the deliveries of the product. The system MUST have physical product in order to control the prices with the unlimited paper they use against the physicals. It is at this point when the markets are forced to find the price that will free up the physicals, which is why we observe the “Deliveries”, “Open Interest”, and the “Options” within the Futures Market. Yesterday’s activities in the December Silver Contracts showed a solid gain, not once but twice, during yesterday trade. I had posted the early morning Open Interest on Monday at 913 (4,565,000 ounces). Later in the day that count increased to 917, I’m not certain what this means because the Open Interest NEVER changes during the day, but it did and with a Volume posted at 138. Now we have to demand count at 968 requests for physical showing an increase of 55 more 5,000-ounce contracts demanding physicals bringing the demand count to 4,840,000 ounces of Silver and with a trading range between $16.59 and $16.555 with the last trade at the high with a Volume of 53 so far this morning.

Silver’s Overall Open Interest remains elevated and will do so till they run out of the physicals with the count now at 204,660 Overnighters proving a reduction of 2,019 short positions showing how precarious the short trade is really in. Once the physicals are drained from this system of delivery, we will see real price gains like those a few years ago when Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey all reduced their currencies against the value of ours.

We must ask what things would be like if there was a fair playing field within the Futures/FX currency markets. Our fiat is being artificially supported by a market basket of other currencies. These other nations, that lift the value of our currency higher than it should be, are doing so they can keep the costs of their labor cheaper than ours. These same nations have also applied tariffs to our products and have been doing so for years. Now that Trump is doing the same to those that tariffed us first, it seems to be frustrating that basket of manipulators.

This market basket has become an oversized Weimar Cart, filled with over printed – not earned fiat, which has grown to the size of a wagon, with an ass pulling it. This ass drawn cart should be called The International Money Laundering Cart of Suppression, and maybe it will in the future, now that the Ukraine/Biden/Burisma is now front and center. The problem with Deep State is that their antics are being exposed on multiple playing fields to the point that Deep State is being cut, slashed, and crushed, by its own malfeasance, and with its own creation, the fiats. This is not a left/right fight, this is a fight we are all involved in whether we like it or not!

There is no escaping a fiat failure! The value of all currencies printed yet not earned, will devalue to zero PERIOD! It always has and it always will, because printing trillions of dollars on a regular basis, by those that always seem to always need it when their control of the markets goes awry, is coming to an end. The written history of mankind, even with all the BS by the “victor”, proves that HARD money (Silver and Gold) is the real money and everything else called money, is fake.

So, get the real while you can and keep in it in hand! No one knows when the fiats will finish the race at the Zero Hero Finish Line, but they always end there. Those that have Silver and Gold in hand will not suffer like those who hold the promise of a fiat. Have a great day no matter what, keep that smile your face and that attitude as positive as possible, and as always….

Stay Strong,

J.Johnson

end

A good one!!

(courtesy Stefan Gleason)

Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold?

by: Stefan Gleason

Money Metals News Service

December 10th, 2019

Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38% globally in 2019.

In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a new record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes – at least on paper.

There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1:1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.

In fact, many of these gold instruments hold futures contracts and other financial derivative products that merely “track” the gold price.

The biggest of them all – SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – purports to have 100% backing of its $42 billion market capitalization in physical bullion. But it’s practically impossible to achieve around the clock since the fund’s assets are a moving target.

As an open-ended fund, GLD doesn’t hold a fixed quantity of gold. A close inspection of its prospectus reveals that it relies on layers of financial intermediaries to create shares and manage its gold inflows and outflows.

Counterparty Risk

That creates a tremendous amount of counterparty risk, including the risk that some of the gold claimed in vaults by GLD may be rehypothecated, or simultaneously owned by another party. Rehypothication is defined by Investopedia as “the practice by banks and brokers of using, for their own purposes, assets that have been posted as collateral by their clients.”

According to Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, “The custodian of the vault holding GLD’s gold is the investment bank HSBC, perhaps the biggest short in the gold market… the bank is the beneficiary of a new New York Commodities Exchange rule apparently allowing the bank to inject more ‘paper gold’ into the futures market.”

Banking and gold don’t go well together – not for gold investors, anyway. The whole point of owning a hard asset is to have wealth outside of the financial system!

Chris Powell continues, “GLD itself facilitates the shorting of real metal through the borrowing and conversion to metal of its shares and the sale or lease of that metal by enormously well-funded brokers executing central bank market-rigging policy.”

It’s clear that a great bulk of GLD owners aren’t paying particularly close attention to what they’re investing in. If they were, why they would prefer GLD (which levies annual expenses of 0.40%) over lower-cost rivals that do the same thing?

Why would they prefer GLD over more secure closed-end funds that hold a fixed amount of metal? Why would they prefer cash-out-only GLD over instruments that allow for physical redemption above certain quantities?

The only reason seems to be that GLD is always presented as the Wall Street stand-in for gold on CNBC and in mainstream financial publications.

Are Rising ETF Inflows a Bullish Signal for Gold?

Despite all of the foregoing drawbacks to precious metals ETFs, their rise isn’t necessarily a bad sign for the physical market. More people are wanting exposure to gold and silver. That’s good news for bulls.

It’s easier for billionaires and institutional investors such as hedge funds to move millions of dollars into gold via an ETF rather than through the purchase of gold coins. Some “smart money” may be moving into gold via this route.

Owning gold indirectly through financial instruments obviously isn’t the smartest strategy for obtaining true diversification out of financial assets. But people who have made fortunes in financial markets tend to perceive it as the only game in town.

Declined Trust

And that’s the way Wall Street brokers and analysts tend to pitch precious metals investing to the public. If it doesn’t trade like a stock, it doesn’t even register.

That so much demand is being diverted into Wall Street products instead of bullion products has certainly suppressed buying of bullion to some extent. That, in turn, may be working to keep a lid on spot prices as well.

The opportunity is that tens of billions of dollars parked in gold and silver derivatives meant to represent precious metals may create something of a force majeure on one or more of the bullion banks – or the futures market itself. If one link in the system fails or is exposed as fraudulent, then confidence could collapse in all forms of paper gold.

Paper/IOU gold may be “convenient” but it is inherently untrustworthy as compared to the real thing. When fear grips markets, convenience considerations go out the window, and wealth preservation becomes paramount.

When the next financial crisis comes, physical gold can be expected to trump paper gold.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan

Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com

Amr Alfiky | Reuters

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market

(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

…

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 67.0390/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0372 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 2.84 POINTS OR 0.10%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 58.11 POINTS OR 0.72%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 20.51 POINTS OR 0.09%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.53/Euro FALLS TO 1.1083

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.53/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.73 and Brent: 63.90

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.28% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.59: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1466.25 silver at: 16.65 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.54

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.54 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9856 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0923 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.80% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 5.7963..

Stocks Drop As Tariff Deadline, Central Banks Looms

Global stocks, US equity futures, 10Y TSY yields and the US dollar dropped for a second day on Tuesday, amid what conventional wisdom said was “caution over a Dec. 15 deadline for the next round of U.S. tariffs” as well as looming Fed and ECB meetings and UK elections (although the real risk factor is the repo market as we will discuss shortly).

Following their counterparts in Asia, European shares fell again, with the Stoxx 600 index down over 1% on course for its biggest decline in a week as 18 of 19 industry sectors slipped, as Germany’s DAX fell to its lowest in a week. Europe’s open appeared to spring a trapdoor below the S&P futures which tumbled just around 3am, and undoing all post payroll gains.

The MSCI All-Country World Index was down 0.1%. Market uncertainty before this Sunday’s tariff deadline was reinforced by comments from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday, who said President Donald Trump did not want to implement tariffs but did want to see “movement” from China. If that comment was supposed to inspire confidence, it has failed.

With investors reluctant to make big bets, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.17% lower. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index was off 0.08%. Australian shares were down 0.34%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.08%.

New data in China showed producer prices fell again in November while consumer prices spiked to the highest level since 2011 on the back of soaring food inflation, complicating efforts to boost demand as economic growth slows.

Additionally, China also reported its latest credit aggregate data which came in modestly stronger than expected, although it was still well below where it should be for China to stimulate its way out of a sub-6% GDP.

In addition to trade, investors were also keeping an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its two-day policy meeting although investors will be watching policymakers’ forecasts for future U.S. economic growth.

“What you have seen since the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter was these two risks were receding … And now this week you see those two concerns coming back on the market,” he said, adding that he expected their effect would be short-term.

Investors have focused this year on the risks of the UK crashing out of the European Union without a deal and a sharp escalation in trade war tensions, said Frank Benzimra, head of equity strategy at Societe Generale.

Euro zone government bond yields were mostly steady, refusing to budge from recent ranges. Germany’s benchmark Bund yield was steady at -0.30%, below a recent high of -0.26%. Italian 10-year bond yields, which fell on Monday, dipped 2.5 basis points to 1.36%. In the euro zone, Christine Lagarde holds her first meeting and news conference as ECB chief on Thursday.

“Expectations for policy action from the ECB and Fed are subdued,” said Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann. “Lagarde’s communication style will be watched closely, but that’s unlikely to lead to any repricing in bond markets.”

European sentiment got another modest boost when Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment printed positive for the first time in six months.

In the US, two-year yields dropped to 1.619% on Tuesday, down from its close of 1.627% on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.8138% from a U.S. close of 1.8225% on Monday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as EUR/USD edged higher after ZEW survey data. The pound edged higher even after data showed the U.K. economy unexpectedly stagnated in October, marking three straight months without growth for the first time since 2009. Norway’s krone dropped after Norges Bank’s regional survey of businesses showed lower growth than expected in the past months and in the half year ahead, lowering the probability of another rate hike

Worries over trade continued to push oil prices lower. Data released on Sunday showed that Chinese exports declined for a fourth straight month, underscoring the impact of the trade war between the U.S. and China, which is in its 17th month. Global benchmark Brent crude fell 0.09% to $64.20 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.1% to $58.95 a barrel. Gold rose, fetching $1,462.05 per ounce.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,123.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 402.25
MXAP down 0.2% to 165.07
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 524.35
Nikkei down 0.09% to 23,410.19
Topix down 0.08% to 1,720.77
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,436.62
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,917.32
Sensex down 0.6% to 40,235.57
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,706.91
Kospi up 0.5% to 2,098.00
German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to -0.296%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1075
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $64.07/bbl
Italian 10Y yield fell 7.3 bps to 0.929%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.458%
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $64.07/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,464.71
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 97.59

Top Overnight News

The U.S. is unlikely to impose extra tariffs on a new $160 billion swath of Chinese goods including toys and smartphones come Sunday, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said. American and Chinese negotiators have signaled that they may be drawing closer to agreeing on phase one of a broader accord that would resolve the trade dispute, with the sides in almost “around-the- clock” talks, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said
Australian Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said he was surprised at the weakness of third-quarter consumption, but doesn’t think it is a pointer to a prolonged period of stagnant spending as households have received an infusion of cash
China’s consumer inflation accelerated to a seven-year high in November while producer prices extended their run of declines, complicating the central bank’s efforts to support the economy
South Africa’s state power company intensified rolling blackouts to a record, signaling a deepening crisis at the debt- ridden utility and raising the risk of a second recession in as many years
Democrats are homing in on accusations that President Donald Trump abused his office in dealing with Ukraine and obstructed a congressional investigation into the matter, indicating they may be heading toward tightly drawn articles of impeachment
Hong Kong police defused two homemade bombs at a local Catholic school, in a reminder of the potential for escalation in the restive financial center after a lull in protest violence
House Democrats plan to unveil two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump on Tuesday — one on abuse of power and the other involving obstruction of Congress, according to four people familiar with the proceedings
Morgan Stanley is cutting about 1,500 jobs globally, including several managing directors, as part of a year-end efficiency push; the company was fined 20 million euros ($22.1 million) by French regulators after the bank’s London desk was accused of using “pump and dump” tactics to manipulate sovereign bond prices
Christine Lagarde came to the Frankfurt-based ECB pledging to bind environmental concerns much more closely into policy decisions – – echoing her strategy when she ran the International Monetary Fund. Six weeks into the post, she’s refining her message after a clamor of warnings from colleagues such as Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann that their scope is limited by their mandate
Sustainable financing has racked up almost half a trillion dollars of deals worldwide in 2019, fueled by a list of notable firsts. Next year may be even bigger

Asian equity markets resumed the cautious global risk tone heading into this week’s plethora of risk events and amid ongoing trade uncertainty from the looming US-China tariff deadline set for December 15th. ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (Unch.) were subdued with Australia pressured by underperformance in most of the trade sensitive sectors but with losses limited by resilience in commodity names, while favourable currency moves also helped stem the downside for Tokyo-listed exporters. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch.) conformed to the lackadaisical picture as participants second-guessed whether the US will proceed with the 15% tariffs on virtually all of the remaining imports from China scheduled for Sunday and in which China have already set retaliatory tariffs due the same day. Furthermore, continued PBoC liquidity inaction, as well as warnings from a senior Chinese economist on looser fiscal and monetary policies next year also contributed to the subdued risk appetite. Finally, 10yr JGBs fluctuated in which prices were initially pressured and briefly slipped below the 152.00 level amid gains in yields in which the 10yr yield rose to 0.0% for the first time since March, with selling in JGBs exacerbated following the weaker results at the 5yr auction which showed a slightly softer b/c, a drop in accepted prices and wider tail in price, although 10yr JGBs then staged an aggressive rebound to recoup all the earlier losses.

Top Asian News

China’s Inflation Fastest Since 2012 on Surging Pork Prices
Blockchain Aggravates Swiss Money Laundering Risks, Says Finma
Japan Bonds Rebound as Benchmark Yield’s Rise to 0% Spurs Demand

European stocks are plumbing the depths [Eurostoxx 50 -1.1%] with the losses seen at the EU cash open accelerating in early trade. DAX futures and cash have retreated below the key 13k level after the former breached its Dec 5th/6th low ~13045 and its Dec low at 12924, with eyes now on its Nov low (12888.5) and 50 DMA (12880) as the index future gives up the 12900 mark. Other major bourses are broadly in the red with little by way of fresh fundamental factors to add to the overall narrative during the session, that said, participants gear up for a risk-packed week, with the US imposition of China tariffs on Dec 15th still looming. Sectors are all in negative territory, although some resilience is seen in defensives which reflects the overall risk picture in the region. The healthcare sector is outperforming its peers as Sanofi (+4.8%) shares cushion the segment – after the drug-maker released plans to reorganise its business which will see it narrow the number of global business units in an attempt to bolster growth and profits, whilst aiming to save EUR 2.0bln by 2022. Other notable movers include Deutsche Bank (-0.3%) whose shares opened higher after affirming its 2019, 2020 and 2022 targets, albeit shares dipped into negative territory on the DAX’s demise. Elsewhere, Ashtead Group (-7.5%) rests at the foot of the FTSE 100 amid fears that the UK market will remain challenging.

Top European News

U.K. Economy Fails to Grow Ahead of Brexit-Dominated Election
German Investors Turn Optimistic for First Time Since April
Ted Baker Chairman and Interim CEO Resign as Crisis Deepens
Morgan Stanley Fined $22 Million for Rigging French Bond Markets

In FX, the clear G10 laggard as Eur/Nok bounces further from sub-1.1000 lows towards 10.1900 on the back of the latest Norwegian regional survey revealing downgrades to output over the previous quarter and outlook for 6 months ahead. Norges Bank contacts also reported slower growth in all sectors of the economy and several respondents noted more uncertainty due to the adverse knock-on effects of global trade turbulence. The Q4 findings overshadowed inflation data that came in as forecast across the board in contrast to softer Swedish Prospera CPIF expectations, albeit with relatively little impact on the SEK given the fact that the Riksbank has underscored December repo rate hike intentions.

GBP/EUR – Sterling survived another bout of all round selling pressure amidst rising option volatility ahead of Thursday’s UK election and the final YouGov MRP poll to rebound firmly in Cable and Eur/Gbp cross terms even though data was disappointing on balance (m/m GDP flat, ip sub-consensus and trade gaps much wider than anticipated). In fact, the Pound is probing fresh peaks vs the Dollar circa 1.3190 and retesting 0.8400 against the single currency that has not derived much momentum from upbeat ZEW metrics for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, with the former somewhat diluted by caveats. Indeed, Eur/Usd only mustered enough strength to register a 1.1080 high before fading and perhaps feeling the weight of hefty option expiries sitting between 1.1065-70 (2.3 bn).
CHF/JPY – The Franc continues to claw back lost ground vs the Greenback and Euro regardless of the looming SNB quarterly policy review and prospect of any tweak in assessment of the Swiss currency, or even direct intervention, with Usd/Chf edging closer to 0.9850 and Eur/Chf eyeing 1.0900. However, the Yen continues to respect 108.50 resistance and a Fib retracement in very close proximity (108.49) amidst decent expiry interest from 108.60-65 (1.5 bn), as the DXY narrowly maintains 97.500+ status).
CAD/NZD/AUD – The Loonie continues to trade on a firmer footing within 1.3245-25 parameters vs its US counterpart alongside the Mexican Peso (between 19.2450-19.2000 on the wide) on USMCA accord hopes, but the Kiwi and Aussie in particular are still treading cautiously ahead of the Fed and US-China tariff deadline, as Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd pivot 0.6550 and 0.6825 respectively and Aud/Nzd keeps its head above 1.0400.

In commodities, crude markets are choppy – with recent action attributed to potential technical play. Front-month WTI and Brent futures popped higher to 59.40/bbl and 64.68/bbl respectively from below the round figures and with a lack of fresh fundamental news-flow to influence prices. Energy futures then reversed earlier gains and printed fresh session lows. Crude markets are susceptible to increased volatility as we go through the week with a number of key macro risk events on the radar – including FOMC and ECB monetary policy decisions, UK general election, US’ scheduled imposition of tariffs on USD 160bln worth of Chinese goods, whilst crude specific drivers include the weekly inventory data and the monthly oil reports – with the EIA STEO due later today. Meanwhile, gold prices remain underpinned by the downside in the equity complex and ahead of the aforementioned events, whilst in terms of commentary – Goldman Sachs and UBS both see the yellow metal prices climbing to USD 1600/oz, above Commerzbank view of USD 1500/oz, amid the current trade environment, but caveat that it is unclear what Central Banks will do during 2020. Meanwhile, copper prices remain on the front-foot and is poised (thus far) for a third straight session of gains as the red metal creeps up to USD 2.75/lb. ING highlight a number of factors driving the upside 1) last week’s positive trade message after china said they would wave tariffs on imports of US pork and soybean, 2) China’s Central Economic Conference vowing to maintain economic growth in a reasonable range – adding to copper demand 3) the downward trend in LME inventories and 4) disappointing short-term scrap import quotas. Finally, Dalian iron ore futures rose in excess of 3.0% to its highest in over four months amid supply uncertainties expected to arise in Q1 2020, with some miners such a Vale also lowering production outlook.

US Event Calendar

6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, 104.7, est. 103, prior 102.4
8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
8:30am: Unit Labor Costs, est. 3.4%, prior 3.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets seem to be in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC, U.K. election and ECB meetings on Wednesday/Thursday so a bit of time to fill in our survey hopefully. We’re also waiting with baited breath for news ahead of Sunday’s key tariff deadline. In the meantime sentiment has been a shade weaker over the last 24 hours albeit on very little news to get excited about. The trade situation in particular has been eerily quiet and rather it’s been the focus on geopolitical tensions in North Korea which appears to be the blame for the mild risk off.

Indeed following Trump’s tweet over the weekend saying that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was “too smart and has far too much to lose” if he renewed hostility with the US, the state-run Korean Central News Agency released a statement calling Trump “an old man bereft of patience”. Further statements also indicated a bit of an escalation in rhetoric however the overall impact on markets was still fairly muted. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed -0.32% and -0.4% last night after the STOXX 600 had edged down -0.24% with the FTSE MIB (-0.97%) underperforming. The VIX also hovered around 1 month highs up 2.2pts to just below 16.

This morning markets in Asia are in a similar holding pattern, with the Nikkei (-0.06%), the Hang Seng (-0.09%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.20%) all trading slightly lower, although the Kospi (+0.38%) has seen gains. Ahead of the US session, S&P 500 futures (+0.06%) have also struggled for direction. The more notable news is that the Japanese 10yr yield did edge above 0.00% earlier. It hasn’t closed above zero since March. However since it poked its head above ground it’s gone back to -0.02% as we type.

Staying with Asia, overnight we had the November inflation data out of China, where CPI yoy rose to +4.5% (vs. 4.3% expected), the highest reading since January 2012. The increase was driven by food prices, which were up +19.1%, thanks to pork prices which rose +110.2% as a result of a virus creating a large shortfall in supply. Stripping out the more volatile price components, and the core CPI number (excluding food and energy) actually fell a tenth to +1.4%, the lowest reading since February 2016. The PPI number was slightly above expectations, with a -1.4% drop in producer prices (vs. -1.5% expected).

Speaking of China, our economists released their outlook for the country this morning (link here), where their view is that the economy is likely to bottom out in 2020, and they’re forecasting real GDP growth of +6.1% next year, compared with +6.0% in Q3 2019. The drivers behind this for them are a better outlook for exports as the global economy stabilises and further US tariffs come to an end or are even eased. They also see higher consumer spending, particularly on durable goods such as autos and cell phones, and finally they believe supportive fiscal and monetary policies will help growth thanks to infrastructure investment and higher credit growth.

Coming back to yesterday, the flip side of the weaker backdrop for equities was a slightly stronger day for bond markets. Indeed 10y Treasury yields closed down -1bps with the 2s10s curve also flattening -1.25bps. In Europe yields were also down 2-7bps led by BTPs as they reversed over half of the 12bps widening last week. An MNI story which hit the headlines in the afternoon suggesting that the ECB could be on hold for much of 2020 didn’t really change the narrative.

Meanwhile, in FX, Sterling held its gains from last week and is trading around $1.315 this morning with 2 days until the election. There was a poll yesterday, from ICM, which showed the Tories with only a 6ppt lead over Labour at 42% versus 36%. The ICM polls tend to show the narrowest lead for Tories and for context that gap narrowed by 1ppt from the last ICM poll on December 2nd. An interesting stat is that of the 65 polls published since campaigning began, 43 have shown a double digit Tory lead. The second YouGov MRP election model is out at 10pm tonight. The last one two weeks ago showed a healthy 68 seat majority for the Tories but the polls have slightly narrowed at the margin since then including YouGov’s ones so you would expect the predicted seats victory to be lower tonight. A reminder that this poll in 2017 correctly showed a hung Parliament c.9 days before Election Day and was counter to the vast majority of other polls showing a comfortable Tory victory. So it will be closely watched again.

In other news there was a bit of data yesterday but it didn’t really move the dial. In Germany exports surprised to the upside in October (+1.2% vs. -0.3% expected) while imports (0.0% mom vs. -0.1% expected) were more or less in line. Elsewhere, the December Sentix investor confidence reading improved 5.2pts to +0.7 (vs. -5.3 expected). That’s actually the strongest reading since May. Continuing with Germany our local economists reported that the SPD’s party congress ended on Sunday without a revolution against the government coalition but with delegates voting for a package of resolutions that should sharpen the SPD’s leftist profile and will further fuel tensions between the coalition partners once they shift into pre-election mode. See their note here for more.

Staying with Europe, yesterday DB’s Mark Wall published his outlook for Europe next year. First and foremost Mark has raised his forecast for euro area growth from 0.8% to 1.0%. This is the first upgrade in over a year and is broadly equalling trend growth. It reflects leading indicators brightening slightly and risks reducing. Mark urges caution though. The trade war and hard Brexit remain risks and he notes the scope for significant upgrades is limited. There are also headwinds such as the auto sector’s struggle with CO2 regulations. See more in Mark’s full note here.

Staying with the outlook theme, Francis Yared published his rates’ outlook yesterday (link here) and his forecasts for 10y Treasuries and Bunds by the end of next year are 1.90% and 0%, respectively. This assumes that none of the major geopolitical risks materialise. In addition, risks to this yield forecast are tilted to the downside in the US and upside in Europe. Francis also flags that the year-end forecasts hide a tortuous path. The US election uncertainty and seasonal effects should put some downside pressure on yields in Q2/Q3 before recovering in Q4 once election uncertainty dissipates.

To the day ahead now, where the highlight datawise this morning is the December ZEW survey in Germany. Also due out is the October monthly GDP and trade data in the UK along with October industrial production prints in the UK, France and Italy. In the US today we’re due to get the November NFIB small business optimism print and final Q3 revisions for nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2/84 POINTS OR 0.10% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 58.11 POINTS OR 0.22% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 20.53 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .36%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 7.0390 /Oil DOWN TO 58.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0390 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0372 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

Pork hyperinflation is having a devastating effect on the Chinese economy

(zerohedge)

China’s Pork Hyperinflation Hits A Record 110%, Keeping Credit Growth In Check

At a time when Beijing is bracing to reveal to the world that China’s economic growth has dipped below 6% for the first time in modern history (and in reality is about half that), and the PBOC is desperate to find ways to stimulate the economy without causing another mini debt bubble, the world’s most populous nation continues to face a major hurdle: pork hyperinflation.

As was revealed in the latest inflation data, China’s CPI accelerated further to 4.5% Y/Y in November, well above the 4.2% consensus expectation, and the highest annual increase since 2011, driven by higher inflation in fresh vegetable and hyperinflation pork prices. The silver lining: the surge in China’s price basket may be easing as on month-over-month terms headline CPI inflation moderated to +8.2% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in November from +9.1% in October.

As has been the case for the past year, the culprit behind the headline CPI surge was food inflation, which accelerated further to a record +19.1% in November from +15.5% in October, primarily on higher inflation in fresh vegetable and pork prices.

And as iw well-known by now, the driver for surging food inflation remains China’s history pork shortage which in November sent prices surging further, rising to a mindblowing 110.2% yoy in November from 101.3% yoy in October, pushing up headline CPI inflation by around 0.2pp relative to October (although the sequential increase slowed).

A new development in November, this time it wasn’t just pork prices as inflation in fresh vegetable rebounded to +3.9% yoy from -10.2% yoy in October, driving headline CPI inflation up by another 0.4%.

The silver lining: non-food CPI inflation remained relatively low at 1.0% yoy.

Looking at the other side of the ledger, the just as important for China’s companies PPI print printed negative again although the deflation narrowed slightly to -1.4% in November, from -1.5% in October. Deflation in the petroleum industry lessened the most, though partially offset by lower inflation in coal mining.

The reason why PPI is so important is because there is a direct correlation between Chinese industrial profits and factory gate prices, or in this case PPI deflation. And absent a rebound in PPI, China’s corporate sector – already loaded to the gills with debt – will face growing bankruptcy pressures as declining cash flows will increasingly be unable to meet debt service payments.

The problem: as long as CPI is soaring, the PBOC’s hands are generally tired in how much monetary stimulus it can inject. And as Goldman notes this morning, “headline CPI inflation is likely to remain elevated in the coming months” as high frequency data suggest year-on-year inflation in pork prices has remained high in early December, though moderating somewhat. Prices in fresh vegetables have picked up further in early December in year-on-year terms. Elevated inflation could be one factor that may limit the room for front-end rates to decline in coming months.

And as China’s “stimulative” hands remain tied, the latest Chinese credit growth data confirmed that Beijing can only do so much to spur much needed inflation. And while credit data surprised modestly to the upside in November after the record low October print, likely helped by administrative push to lend in November, the Total Social Financing was still a relatively modest, by historical standards, 1.750 trillion, even as shadow banking shrank for the 8th consecutive month.

Here are the details from Goldman:

New CNY loans: 1390BN yuan in November, higher than consensus 1200 BN, representing outstanding CNY loan growth of 12.4% in November, the same as October.

Total social financing: 1750BN yuan in November, also well above consensus 1485BN yuan, and more than double October’s paltry 662BN yuan.

According to the PBOC, TSF stock growth was 11.1% yoy in November, the same as October. If we add all local government bond net issuance to TSF flow data, Goldman estimates adjusted TSF stock growth edged up to 10.9% yoy in November from 10.8% in October. The implied month-on-month growth of adjusted TSF accelerated to 10.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from 9.5% in October

Finally, even though TSF posted a much needed rebound, one can’t say the same for the all important M2, which rose just 8.2% Y/Y in November, missing Bloomberg consensus of 8.4%, and down from October’s 8.4% Y/Y.

So while credit data surprised modestly to the upside in November as RMB loan growth momentum picked up and Banker’s acceptance bill issuance reversed the contraction in October and corporate bond issuance accelerated, the decline in trust and entrusted loans -i.e., shadow debt – continued to be a drag, and has been down for 19 of the past 21 months.

Commenting on the rebound in November credit growth, Goldman writes that “it potentially reflects the loosening intention of the government” and is driven by four factors:

October activity data showed broad-based weakness,
Policy makers were concerned (justifiably in retrospect) about further downward pressures from exports as there was widespread evidence of frontloading of exports until October
a very weak October TSF data. This, amid the two factors above, likely put the central bank under more pressure to keep TSF growth at least stable. Given the weakness in October data, this likely meant a rebound was needed in November
High frequency pork prices have been on a downward trend very recently. This potentially eased the concerns policymakers had about consumer inflation. Although CPI accelerated further in November on a year-over-year basis, it is the high frequency pork price data that matters more on a forward-looking basis, as it has been the single biggest driver of CPI.

As a result the central bank provided ample liquidity in the interbank market in November – but not too much lest food prices spike even more – and pushed commercial banks to lend out more. Other policymakers likely took actions to boost activity growth, especially administrative push to accelerate infrastructure construction. Warmer than usual weather conditions made this easier to do than otherwise since November is around the time of the year when large parts of northern China become too cold to construct some of these projects. These factors increased credit demand, although it is unclear if this relative credit “goldilocks” will persist. It all depends on whether China will find an alternative source of pork to restock its inventory as China’s population is becoming increasingly displeased with the soaring price of its favorite protein.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREECE/TURKEY

Not good: phos show increasing tensions in the Med. Sea as Greek fighters are “locked On” to Turkish warships near the gas fields of Cyprus

(Al Masdar News))

Photos Show Greek Fighter Jet ‘Locked On’ To Turkish Warships Near Cyprus

Via Al-Masdar News,

A Greek fighter jet allegedly obtained ‘missile lock’ on a Turkish frigate that was traveling off the coast of Cyprus on December 8, 2019, the Aviationist reported.

Citing photos from the Twitter profile of journalist Yannis Nikitas, the Aviationist reported that a Greek Mirage 2000 jet targeted the Turkish frigate with Exocet anti-ship missiles during a show of force over the weekend.

“In the photos we can see the HUD of a Mirage 2000, recognizable also by the characteristic Mirage refueling probe, as it gets a lock on a ship which, according to the caption, could be a Turkish frigate. On the left side of the HUD we can see a ‘M39’ label, showing that the pilot selected the AM-39 Exocet anti-ship to perform the lock on the ship,” the publication said.

Relations between Greece and Turkey have been rocky this year after Ankara began drilling for oil off the coast of Cyprus.

This move by Ankara prompted Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt to issue a joint statement condemning Turkey for violating international law.

They specifically pointed out that in the statement that Turkey was operating in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone and territorial waters.

Turkey continues to maintain that their activities are within the framework of international law, despite the joint statement from Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus.

* * *

More on the alleged “missile lock” from the original Aviationist report:

The images in question first appeared on the Twitter profile of Yannis Nikitas, an embedded journalist of the Hellenic Ministry of Defense.

Ioannis Nikitas@Ioannis_Nikitas

Η Τουρκική φρεγάτα στοχοποιημένη από τα Mirage της #HellenicAirForce σε αποστολή ναυτικής κρούσης στο #Αιγαιο Αυτή είναι η γλώσσα που καταλαβαίνει ο Τούρκος. Καμία υποχώρηση στα εθνικά συμφέροντα. Καμία έκπτωση στην εθνική κυριαρχία. Υπέρ βωμών και εστιών σε ξηρά, θάλασσα κ αέρα.

Discussing the possibilities, the analysis describes:

Even if the caption states that the target is a Turkish frigate, we can’t confirm it yet due to the distance the image was taken from, as it’s impossible to discern useful features of the ship for an identification. However, if we extract an approximate shape from the ship in the photo and we consider only frigates, the target could be either a Turkish Barbaros-class frigate or a Greek Hydra-class frigate. We can’t still rule out the possibility of a Greek frigate as the HUD shows the PRAC label, which means that the missile was not armed and ready to be fired but rather set in training mode, or better as practice mode as shown in the image. If that’s the case, the photo could have been taken during TASMO training with the Hellenic Navy.

The other possibility in addition to the photos perhaps showing a Greek naval exercise in progress (and not a threatening missile lock on a Turkish frigate), is that it does indeed show an encounter with a Turkish ship, but from a prior incident:

While searching online for more info about the photos and the background of the specific mission of the Mirage from which they were taken, we found the same photos in an article published by Nikitas in September 2018 on his website DefenceReview.gr with two additional shots. If the additional photos are from the same mission (although the weather is different…), the top one shows a closer look at the ship that allows us to confirm that this is indeed a Barbaros-class frigate belonging to the Turkish Navy and the photos were not taken recently but last year during a show of force (i.e. flying low and fast close to a foreign warship in international waters).

Yet the photo set is still driving angry exchanges between Greek and Turkish commentators online, at a moment of heightened tensions over Turkish oil and gas exploration inside Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone.

FREXIT – Is France Hurling Towards Leaving The EU?

Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

France is by no means calming down. There is a major underlying problem in France which is rising to the surface in direct confrontation with the government and Macron’s ambition to lead Europe. Macron’s confrontation with Trump over NATO is a reflection of a historical posture of the French government that has resented both Germany and the United States. Macron had said, “The Atlantic alliance can only be restored in one way, through restoring the unity of Europe.” The twelve founding members set up a headquarters together for the first time in London in 1950.

NATO Headquarters was located at 13, Belgrave Square. The last meeting to be held in London before the move to Paris was on April 1, 1952, which coincided with NATO’s third anniversary. NATO was forced to move its headquarters from Porte Dauphine in Paris, France (the A building for Alliance) following the French withdrawal from NATO, which then moved to Brussels, Belgium in 1967.

Macron did not advocate that France should pull out of NATO as was the case under President de Gaulle. Indeed, de Gaulle did withdraw France from NATO’s military structure in 1966, yet it remained an Ally. Macron has been also pushing for a European Army. Clearly, Macron’s agenda has been to federalize Europe and that is clashing with the people. He is NOT a proponent in having the USA a major part of NATO according to reliable sources.

Macron has been pushing economic reforms to curtail the social benefits in France in his effort to federalize Europe. In protest of his planned reforms in the pension system, the unions have organized several general strikes, which are now being joined by the yellow vests. This has resulted in bringing in hundreds of thousands of protesters to the streets. The problem which Macron faces is that France’s economic performance can no longer finance the generous welfare state which is far beyond international standards.

Everything points to a major political crisis brewing in France and there is talk that perhaps France should also now move to exit the EU – FREXIT. According to Harris Interactive poll taken 26–28 of November 2019, Macron has a favorable rating of only 39% and a disproval rating of 61%. His push to federalize Europe may be his undoing. Macron admitted in January 2018 that if the French people were given a right to vote of FREXIT, a simple yes / no response to such a complex question, the French would “probably” have voted for FREXIT.

There is no question that there remains a serious risk that FREXIT can also be on the horizon for the driving force is the collapsing economic structure of socialism.

American politicians will one day face the very same crisis. All the promises of benefits are coming to an end.

END

Number crunching time and it looks like a very big tory win the the UK election on Thursday

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Number-Crunching The Polls Points To Big Tory Win In UK Election

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

An average of the last six polls suggests a Tory majority of 46 according to Electoral Calculus.

Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus Model estimates a Tory majority of 46 based on opinion polls from 02 Dec 2019 to 07 Dec 2019, sampling 10,827 people.

Polls Used

I arrive at 10,827 by discarding the Savanta ComRes poll highlighted in yellow.

Baxter did not discard that poll out of bias but rather because there were two overlapping polls by the same pollster and he used the most recent one.

I calculated the averages excluding Opinium because Opinium looks silly in relation to everything else. The net effect is to toss the highest and lowest and keep average the rest. This is a frequently used method to discard outliers.

Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification

Electoral Calculus (EC) uses Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP) in its calculations.

YouGov is the only other place that does the same.

EC does not conduct polls but it does uses data from questions pollsters ask in its analysis.

New Polling Technology

EC explains further in New Polling Technology

Electoral Calculus has built its own version of the political regression methodology. This is very similar in spirit to the YouGov approach, though some of technical details may be different, since YouGov have not published a detailed technical description. The basic idea is relatively new to political science, but is already well established in the fields of mathematical statistics and technology. Political scientists use the tongue-wrenching name of “multi-level regression and post-stratification”, but the technology companies prefer the more inviting terms of “machine learning” and “big data”. Unassuming mathematicians just call it “regression”. Whatever it is called, it is the same basic thing. Let’s call it regression for now.

The regression works by taking a set of people and polling them to ask not just about their voting intention but also about other facts about themselves. These facts, which are known as “predictors”, can include demographic characteristics such as age, gender, location, and education as well as political characteristics like their votes in previous elections and the political alignment of their constituency. So far, this is just like conventional polling.

But the next stage is different. Now we “regress” people’s voting intention against their predictor variables. In other words, we estimate the statistical relationship between the various predictor variables and someone’s voting intention. For example, we might find that younger people are more likely to vote Labour and Green and that older people are more likely to vote Conservative and UKIP. Or that someone in the East Midlands is more likely to vote Conservative than a similar person in London. These links are usually not surprising, but the important thing is that we can quantify each relationship in numerical terms.

Finally the regression data are applied to everyone in each constituency to estimate the individual probability that a particular person supports each party. This gives an idea of how many people in each constituency support each party, from which we can work out which party is likely to win that seat.

2017 Results – Actual vs YouGov vs Electoral Calculus

I am convinced that Baxter and YouGov are more likely to have things correct than other pollsters. But I also take Survation very seriously as they were also on the mark in 2017.

Electoral Calculus Predict Election

If you plug my “Polls Used” line into the Electoral Calculus Predict Election Calculator it will indeed return the chart I showed at the top.

Electoral Calculus Result Excluding Opinium

Electoral Calculus Survation Model

If you like the MRP model but believe Survation is the most accurate pollster you arrive at a Tory 30 seat majority.

What If?

Assume the ComResDec 2-5 poll with a 6.0% Tory Lead is accurate.

EC still expects a Tory majority, not a hung parliament.

Seat By Seat Projections

Electoral Calculus offers Seat-by-Seat Change Projections.

Labour a Complete Loser

EC currently projects Labour is a complete loser, not winning a single seat from anyone.

YouGov Projections

YouGov has a Seat-by-Seat Model that projects a whopping 359 seats for the Tories. However, that model is hopelessly out of date. All the data is prior to Nov 27.

I have a contact at YouGov and emailed him today asking when this projection will be updated.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/LIBYA

What on earth is Erdogan up to?: he is deploying troops to Libya and will fight against the USA backed Haftar

(zerohedge)

Turkey Ready To Deploy Troops In Libya Against Haftar Offensive: Erdogan

Turkey and Libya have signed an expanded maritime, security and military cooperation agreement which gives Turkey the right to deploy troops there if requested by authorities in Tripoli, President Erdogan has told state-run TRT television in an interview on Monday.

“In the event of such a call coming, it is Turkey’s decision what kind of initiative it will take here.” Erdogan said, as reported by Reuters. “We will not seek the permission of anyone on this,” he underscored.

This at a moment the country is still divided between Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s advancing LNA forces and the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli.

Turkey has been the most aggressive backer of Tripoli, offering military equipment and even air power, while the UAE has provided most weaponry for Haftar’s ‘rebel’ army in the developing proxy war. While Washington officially recognizes the GNA, the Trump administration has for months verbalized support for Haftar, long seen as the ‘CIA’s man in Libya’. “Haftar is nothing but a pirate,” Erdogan said earlier this year after six Turkish sailors were briefly detained by pro-Haftar forces.

Erdogan also claimed that based on the bilateral memorandum, signed on Nov. 27, Turkish forces entering Libyan territory or waters at the request of the GNA would not be a violation of the UN arms embargo on the war-torn country.

“With this new agreement between Turkey and Libya, we can hold joint exploration operations in these exclusive economic zones that we determined. There is no problem,” Erdogan said.

“Other international actors cannot carry out exploration operations in these areas Turkey drew (up) with this accord without getting permission. Greek Cyprus, Egypt, Greece and Israel cannot establish a gas transmission line without first getting permission from Turkey,” he warned.

As we reported last week, Turkey appears to be using its close cooperation with Libya’s GNA to also expand its eastern Mediterranean claims to oil and gas exploration and drilling.

Over the past year Turkey has sent both oil and gas exploration ships, as well as military transport vessels, into Cypriot waters in the East Mediterranean related to expanded claims based on the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus (since 1974), earning the condemnation of both Nicosia and top EU officials, who have defended EU-Cyprus’ interpretation of the conflict.

Turkey has laid claim to waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone.

President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) receives Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya Fayez al-Sarraj (L) at Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkey on March 20, 2019. Source: Anadolu Agency

And now Erdogan is clearly ready to use Ankara’s ties to Tripoli in order to squeeze out rivals from the eastern Mediterranean and expand the claims from the south:

Speaking in an interview with state broadcaster TRT Haber, Erdogan said the accord would also allow Turkey to carry out drilling on Libya’s continental shelf with Tripoli’s approval, and that the deal was in line with international law.

The area where Turkey and Libya have drawn their maritime borders in the accord is not far south of the large Greek island of Crete.

So far Ankara has responded to threats of EU sanctions after it sent ships off EU-member Cyprus’ waters by reaffirming its rights to waters of all parts of Cyprus’ coast.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and reluctant NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

END

IRAQ/IRAN

This is certainly not going to make Trump happy as he know is contemplating sending more troops to Iraq. Iran has been secretly moving weapons into Iraq and now we witness a rocket attack at Baghdad airport base. The USA believe that Iran is targeting Americans

(zerohedge)

After Rockets Hit Baghdad Airport Base, US Says Iran Targeting Americans

On Monday four rockets of unknown origin struck an Iraqi military base near the Baghdad International Airport, also site to many US and coalition forces. This follows at least nine “increasingly sophisticated” rocket attacks on joint US-Iraq military facilities over just the past five weeks.

The Pentagon believes Iran is behind these and other attacks, CNN reports, according to several US defense official sources, who say further Iran’s Shia proxies are involved in planning “new provocations against US troops and interests in the region.”

Monday’s major assault near the sprawling Baghdad airport appeared to target a main training center where US troops advise members of the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service. No Americans were reported hurt; however, six Iraq security force members were injured according to official statements, with two in critical condition.

*Baghdad International Airport file photo.*

Iraqi security officials believe an even larger attack was planned, given launchers recovered in the aftermath included rockets that hadn’t fired properly.

This week’s attack came days following last Thursday’s incident wherein two Katyusha rockets landed inside Balad air base, known to host US forces and contractors north of Baghdad.

That attack prompted Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to observe on Saturday that the US has seen a “little bit of an uptick” in such attacks, which is “another indicator for us of Iran reaching out.”

And the State Department’s Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker also alleged “Iranian-backed militias are now shelling Iraqi bases with American and anti-ISIS Coalition forces on them.”

Meanwhile,

thisUS officials this month cited intelligence saying that for years Iran has been “secretly moving missiles into Iraq,” according to the Jerusalem Post and other international reports.

Following Monday’s attack Pentagon spokesperson Cdr. Sean Robertson told CNN in a statement: “We have made clear that attacks on US. and Coalition personnel and facilities will not be tolerated and we retain the right to defend ourselves.”

According to multiple reports, the Trump administration is weighing deploying an additional 4,000 to 7,000 troops to the Middle East in the face of Iran tit-for-tat for sanctions.

END

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1083 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.53 DOWN 0.05 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3172 UP 0.0027 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3244 DOWN .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.84 POINTS OR 0.10%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 58.11 POINTS OR 0.22%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,36%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 58.11 POINTS OR 0.22%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.84 POINTS OR 0.10%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 36%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 20.51 POINTS OR 0.09%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1467.40

silver:$16.68-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.05% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.57 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.39% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01% DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%// UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,24 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 78 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.54% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1086 UP .0022 or 22 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.76 UP .178 OR YEN DOWN 18 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3179 UP .0034 POUND UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 7 basis points to 1.3271

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0342 ON SHORE (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 7.0303 (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA: 5.8051 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.84 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.27 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.48 UP 17 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.21 0.35%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 34.89 POINTS OR .27%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 10.78 POINTS 0.18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 33.5 POINTS or 0.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 165.92 POINTS OR 0.72%

WTI Oil price; 59.21 12:00 PM EST

Brent Oil: 64.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISES: 63.54 THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.01 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 59.31//

BRENT : 64.38

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.84 PLUS 0 BASIS POINTS FROM YESTERDAY…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.26..PLUS ONE BASIS POINT ON THE DAY..

EURO/USA 1.1096 ( UP 31 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.76 UP .181 (YEN DOWN 18 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.45 DOWN 20 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.3183 UP 38 POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 5.8060

the Russian rouble 63.46 UP 0.09 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 9 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3232 UP 6 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 7.0342 (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0271 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

The Dow closed DOWN 27.88 POINTS OR 0.10%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 5.64 POINTS OR 0.07%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.81 CLOSED DOWN .05

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.888%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Dollar Stumble As Traders Reach ‘Peak FOMO’

There’s no better proxy for the traders’ level of FOMO-ness, it is the beta between momo funds and the market, and as Bloomberg notes, it is sitting near its highest level in almost two years.

Source: Bloomberg

Cause or effect – Peak FOMO is occurring along with Peak Fed balance sheet expansion…

But… while hedgies are chasing the market with everything they have… others are buying extreme downside protection with both hands and feet…

Source: Bloomberg

The Other Top…

But none of that stopped China from rallying overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

And European stocks recovered most of Monday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

US Majors slipped lower again on the day (despite plenty of vol-creating trade headlines)…

Source: Bloomberg

But futures show the real chaos…

NOTE how VWAP (blue line) was key trend change level all day

And stocks just kept decoupling from bonds

Source: Bloomberg

Another short-squeeze was engineered off trade headlines at the open… but again it lost its mojo…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks continue to relatively outperform despite the yield curve’s collapse in the last couple of days…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher on the day with the short-end notably underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Flattening the yield curve dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dropped for the 7th day in the last 8 to its lowest since Nov 5th…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan rallied off the fix on optimistic traiff delay headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos continue to slide…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher on the day, but copper leads on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI remains in its rising channel ahead of tonight’s inventory data…

The year’s best-performing major commodity is showing no signs of slowing. Bloomberg points out that Palladium topped $1,900 an ounce for the first time ever on Tuesday after South African mining companies halted operations in response to the country’s power cuts.

Source: Bloomberg

Tight supplies and stricter vehicle-emissions rules have fueled a string of record highs for the metal used in autocatalysts, with Citi seeing prices jumping to $2,500 by mid-2020.

Palladium is up over 50% YTD…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we noted previously, recession fears have disappeared from the headlines… in a rather ominous way…as the last time this happened was the summer of 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

And as we all anxiously await Powell’s prognostications tomorrow, the market is pricing just a 0.2% chance of a rate-cut…

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks rallied in the last week, the market priced out more and more dovishness…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Futures Jump On WSJ Report Next Round Of Tariffs To Be Delayed

Following chatter earlier this morning, a WSJ report claiming that the White House and China had agreed to delay a planned tariff hike scheduled for Sunday sent equity futures soaring.

The yuan, a popular gauge of trade-deal sentiment, also rallied on the report.

Though earlier reports hinted that such a delay was in the works, as we mentioned below.

As 2019 comes to a close, the Trump Administration is shifting its focus to working with Mexico, Canada and Nancy Pelosi (despite all the furor around impeachment) to pass USMCA (Nafta 2.0). But although negotiations with China will be put on hold temporarily, a mini-deal to delay the next round of US tariffs from taking effect on Dec. 15 is still possible, according to a report by SCMP.

Meanwhile, on Monday, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said the US likely won’t move ahead with imposing new tariffs on a $160 billion swath of Chinese goods, including toys and smartphones, on Sunday, and that talks are progressing on the subject of IP.

Additionally, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Fox Business that American and Chinese negotiators are working “around the clock” on a deal, but added that it’s more important to win a good deal for the US than to put off the tariffs set to take effect on Sunday. Ross added that the Phase One deal would focus on agriculture and trade. On the other hand, Ross said the US is “within millimeters” of winning a deal on USMCA.

Ross sat for an interview with Marie Bartiromo, where he bashed the Dems for insisting on insignificant changes to enforcement and digital commerce mechanisms that ultimately delayed the deal with little added benefit. Ross added that the final deal is still being drafted.

According to SCMP, Washington has other reasons to hold off on the next round of tariffs: If the US follows through, Beijing could retaliate by introducing its “undesirable entities” list, which it has long threatened. The list would allow Beijing to retaliate against specific US companies, including blocking them from doing business in China.

“I don’t expect a final deal by the 15th. There are still difficult things to work out and Lighthizer is focused on the USMCA end game at the moment. That said, I’m not betting on tariffs either,” said Clete Willems, a partner at law firm Akin Gump and former deputy director of the US National Economic Council. “Another round of tariffs would likely yield the unreliable entities list from China, further political hardening, and all but end the chances of a deal before the election. I don’t think either side wants that.”

Ross insinuated that Dems were holding off on passing the plan, which would create more than 170,000 jobs, because they don’t want to distract from impeachment.

Whatever Beijing decides to do in retaliation to the tariffs, it’ll likely be big. Because adding another 15 percentage points of tariffs on $160 billion of goods being imported to the US will have a tsunami-like impact on China’s already-faltering economy, one analyst said.

If the US does follow through with tariffs on Sunday, it’s extremely likely that the trade talks will collapse.

Chinese analyst Lu Xiang said that the implementation of the 15 per cent tariff on around US$160 billion of Chinese goods would be “treated as a natural disaster.”

“If we see US tariffs on Sunday, it would mean the talks collapse,” said Lu, a research fellow on US-China relations with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “The final decision is in the hands of [US President Donald] Trump. But China has prepared for the worst scenario.”

Of course, at this point, it’s impossible to tell which headlines carry weight, and which are merely just the Trump Administration panic-pumping stocks.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

This is a very important data point: USA productivity has slumped to its lowest level since 2015

(zerohedge)

US Productivity Slumps Most Since 2015

US productivity slipped 0.2% QoQ in Q3 2019, worse than the preliminary 0.1% decline and the biggest QoQ drop since Q4 2015.

Year-over-year saw productivity rise at 1.5% –

weakest since Q4 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, on a year-over-year basis, manufacturing productivity declined 0.1%.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Major freight carrier, Celadon, bust leaving 3,000 truckers jobless and many stranded on the highways

(zerohedge)

Major Freight Carrier Bankrupted, Leaving 3,000 Truckers Jobless, Many Stranded On Highways

As the manufacturing recession gains momentum, the largest U.S. truckload carrier filed for bankruptcy Monday morning, leaving 3,000 truck drivers and 500 administrative positions without a job two weeks before Christmas.

Indianapolis-based Celadon filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the early hours on Monday morning.

Around 1:43 am est., headlines via Reuters confirmed the bankruptcy and how all domestic and international operations have been halted.

CELADON GROUP, INC. AND AFFILIATES COMMENCE VOLUNTARY CHAPTER 11 CASES
CELADON GROUP INC – CELADON ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL SHUT DOWN ALL OF ITS BUSINESS OPERATIONS EFFECTIVE AS OF TODAY, MONDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2019
CELADON GROUP INC – THIS SHUT DOWN DOES NOT INCLUDE TAYLOR EXPRESS BUSINESS HEADQUARTERED IN HOPE MILLS, NORTH CAROLINA
CELADON GROUP – CELADON INTENDS TO USE ITS CHAPTER 11 PROCEEDINGS TO WIND DOWN ITS GLOBAL OPERATIONS
CELADON GROUP INC – HAVE FILED VOLUNTARY PETITIONS FOR RELIEF UNDER CHAPTER 11 OF BANKRUPTCY CODE IN U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT FOR DISTRICT OF DELAWARE
CELADON GROUP INC – TO SUPPORT WIND DOWN OF OPERATIONS, CELADON’S LENDERS HAVE AGREED TO PROVIDE INCREMENTAL DEBTOR-IN-POSSESSION FINANCING

Celadon CEO Paul Svindland told WTHR Indianapolis that the entire company would shut down business operations except for the “Taylor Express” subsidiary in Hope Mills, North Carolina, on Monday.

Svindland said the company will guarantee delivery of their last loads and will instruct drivers where to leave trucks.

“We have diligently explored all possible options to restructure Celadon and keep business operations ongoing, however, a number of legacy and market headwinds made this impossible to achieve,” Svindland said in a press release.

“Celadon has faced significant costs associated with a multi-year investigation into the actions of former management, including the restatement of financial statements. When combined with the enormous challenges in the industry, and our significant debt obligations, Celadon was unable to address our significant liquidity constraints through asset sales or other restructuring strategies. Therefore, in conjunction with our lenders, we concluded that Celadon had no choice but to cease all operations and proceed with the orderly and safe wind down of our operations through the Chapter 11 process.”

A source told WTHR that 3,000 truckers across the country are jobless on Monday morning, and many are stranded on highways with no money for fuel as gas cards have been shut off.

Over the weekend, rumors of Celadon’s collapse spread on Facebook like wildfire. Reports of truckers stranded on highways as their gas cards and maintenance contracts to service trucks were shutoff.

Some Facebook users offered their homes, a hot meal, and transportation for stranded truckers, considering Christmas is several weeks away.

The collapse of Celadon comes after a grand jury indicted two former executives for cooking the books.

Last week, U.S. Attorney Josh Minkler announced the indictment of former COO William Meek and former CFO Bobby Peavler. Both are facing wire fraud, securities fraud, and conspiracy to commit fraud.

As previously reported, the manufacturing recession triggered a freight slowdown in 2019.

With the overall economy rapidly decelerating through Q4 and likely into 1Q20, the trucking bust will likely get more severe.

As for the stranded Celadon truck drivers — some might not make it home for the holidays.

end

Donald Trump seems to have instilled optimism in our small business sector .

(zerohedge)

Small Business Optimism Surges As Plans To Raise Worker Compensation Soar Most In 30 Years

After stagnating for much of the past year following its 2018 all time highs, small business optimism posted the largest month-over-month gain in 19 months, since May 2018, rising 2.3 points to 104.7 in November, up from 102.4, and beating the consensus estimate of 103.0.

The “exceptional” Optimism Index reading was bolstered by seven of the 10 Index components advancing, led by a 10-point improvement in earnings.

Owners reporting it is a good time to expand increased by 6 points and those expecting better business conditions increased by 3 points. The NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 6 points in November to 72, adding to the 4-point drop in October and the lowest reading since May 2018

In other words, US small business were swept by the same euphoria they felt when Trump was first elected.

“This historic run may defy the expectations of many, but it comes as no surprise to small business owners who understand what a supportive tax and regulatory environment can do for their companies,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg, who added what will come as music to Trump’s ears: “As the two-year anniversary of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s passage approaches this month, small businesses, the world’s third largest economy, are using those savings to power the American economy.”

Earnings, or the frequency that owners report positive profit trends, rose 10 points, 1 point below the record set in May 2018, to a net 2 percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements.

Stronger profits negated some cost pressures (especially labor) limiting the need to raise prices. A net 12 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up 8 points and the highest level since May 2018.

“Owners are aggressively moving forward with their business plans, proving that when they’re given relief from the government, they put their money where their mouth is, and they invest, hire, and increase wages,“ said Dunkelberg. “Owners are most closely focused on issues that directly impact their business, including the real, significant tax relief they were given two years ago, and they’re anxious to see that relief made permanent.”

Meanwhile as the NFIB reported in its last monthly jobs report, a net 30 percent of small business owners, seasonally adjusted, reported raising compensation (unchanged) and 26 percent plan to do so in the coming months, up 4 points and the highest level since December 1989. Job creation jumped in November, with an average addition of 0.29 workers per firm, the highest level since May. Finding qualified workers though remains the top issue for 26 percent reporting this as their number one problem, 1 point below August’s record high.

Owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points to a net 12 percent, seasonally adjusted. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail trades (7 percent lower, 24 higher) and construction (6 percent lower, 23 higher). On balance, inflationary pressures are weak on Main Street as confirmed by government inflation reports.

November reflects a stark departure from previous months of clatter about a possible recession that dampened owners’ economic outlook. But the current focus and noise in Washington, D.C. around impeachment is proving to have little, if any, impact on small business owners, no different than during the impeachment proceedings of President Bill Clinton, which ended up being a whole lot of nothing.

END

The White House finally announces that we are going to have a Canada–USA-Mexico trade deal

(zerohedge)

White House, Democrats Reach “Infinitely Better” Deal On NAFTA 2.0

Following months of politicking, and a friendly nudge from Mexicos’ AMLO earlier in the week, House Democrats appear to have satisfied labor’s demands and have agree to ratify the USMCA trade deal that President trump reached last year with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA.

Speaker Pelosi proudly proclaimed her victory this morning – notably mentioning AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka numerous times but not mentioned US President Donald Trump once – that the deal she agreed was “infinitely better” than the original agreement made by Mr Trump, particularly on enforcement of labor standards in Mexico.

As The FT notes, the move towards a green light on Capitol Hill will be touted as a big win for the White House heading into the 2020 presidential campaign. Trump tweeted this morning:

“America’s great USMCA Trade Bill is looking good. It will be the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA. Good for everybody — Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions — tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country’s worst Trade Deal, Nafta!“

Notably, the peso and loonie barely budge on the news this morning.

end

This is a good Bellwether for determining the outlook for manufacturing: Diesel demand slumps badly as our manufacturing recession rages on

(zerohedge)

Diesel Demand Slump Signals Manufacturing Recession Is Still Raging

The U.S. economy is decelerating into an election year and could print below-trend growth by 2H20.

Manufacturing, employment, and inflation have all been in downturns for one year, hence why the Federal Reserve has been quick to slash interest rates, as President Trump has been begging for negative interest rates, quantitative easing, and emergency tax cuts.

New data from Reuters’ John Kemp shows how manufacturing continues to decelerate into year-end as there’s little evidence that growth will trough and zoom higher in early 2020.

Kemp says waning diesel consumption is a significant warning sign of manufacturing output continuing to contract and volume of freight plunging. These factors have put downward pressure on spot oil prices.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows consumption of diesel was down 3% in Q3 versus a year earlier.

Kemp notes that diesel is used by “trucking firms, railroads, manufacturers, construction firms, oil and gas drillers, and farmers, so diesel consumption is tightly coupled with the manufacturing cycle.”

He said the drop in diesel consumption relative to gasoline shows that the manufacturing recession is worsening as the consumer is generating slower growth.

Consumption growth of diesel has plunged across the world.

Manufacturing downturns in China, India, Europe, South America, and the U.S. have contributed to declining demand.

As the global economy decelerates into 2020, diesel demand will continue to decline, forcing oversupplied conditions and lower prices.

end

Zoltan Pozsar is very admired on Wall Street and he should be..he was with the Fed for many years and he left in 2015. He is the inventor of the repo business and just about all of those exotic trades with Primary dealers and the Fed. If there is anybody on earth that understands what is going on with the repos it is him. His latest piece is lengthy and you need a PhD to understand it but give it a try.

For the short version: he is telling us that there is extreme risk of a banking crisis come Dec 31.2019 due to a lack of dollars in the system. The banks will hoard hoards and no lend them to the repo sector. However other fees owed because of the Volcker rule will cause the banks to sell massive stocks to become liquid. He is adamant that the Fed will have to engage in QE4 to save the system.

(zerohedge)

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its- about-get-very-bad-repo-market-legend-predicts-market- crash-days

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Very big!! Barr and Durham both issue statements after the release of the Horowitz report. They wanted to object to Horowitz’ finding that there is no real origins to the Russiagate. These guys now and weill see criminal charges issued by them in time.

(zerohedge)

‘A Clear Abuse’: Barr, Durham Object To IG FISA Probe Findings In Stunning Statements

Following the highly anticipated release of the DOJ Inspector General’s so-called FISA report, Attorney General Bill Barr and his hand-picked US Attorney, John Durham, have issued statements disagreeing with the IG’s conclusions.

The report found that while the FBI made serious errors investigating the Trump campaign, and relied heavily on the discredited Steele dossier, that the agency was ultimately justified in launching a counterintelligence operation, dubbed Crossfire Hurricane.

“The Inspector General’s report now makes clear that the FBI launched an intrusive investigation of a U.S. presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken,” Barr said in a statement released shortly after the FISA report.

“It is also clear that, from its inception, the evidence produced by the investigation was consistently exculpatory,” he continued. “Nevertheless, the investigation and surveillance was pushed forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s administration.”

Barr added that the FISA report reveals a “clear abuse” of the surveillance court.

“In the rush to obtain and maintain FISA surveillance of Trump campaign associates, FBI officials misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts from their filings, and suppressed or ignored information negating the reliability of their principal source.”

“The Inspector General found the explanations given for these actions unsatisfactory. While most of the misconduct identified by the Inspector General was committed in 2016 and 2017 by a small group of now-former FBI officials, the malfeasance and misfeasance detailed in the Inspector General’s report reflects a clear abuse of the FISA process.”

Durham, meanwhile, said “Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.”

“I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff,” Durham also said. “However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department. Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S.”

Full Durham statement:

“I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff. However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department. Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.”

end

have fun with this!!

(zerohedge)

Fireworks Erupt As Matt Gaetz Goes Off On ‘Non-Partisan’ Democrat Impeachment Lawyer

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) took the Democrats’ ‘non-partisan’ impeachment attorney to task on Monday afternoon in a clip which quickly went viral.

Gaetz first asked GOP impeachment attorney Stephen Castor if he’d ever made political donations, to which he replied “I don’t remember any.”

The Florida Republican then asked Democratic attorney Daniel Goldman the same question, to which Goldman replied “I do sir.”

Gaetz took it from there – saying “matter of fact, you’ve given tens of thousands of dollars to Democrats, right?”

“Have you given over $100,000?” Gaetz asked. “Do you think if you’d given more money, you might have been able to ask questions – and answer them like Mr. Berke did?” referring to an incident earlier in the day in which House Judiciary Committee attorney Barry Berke was able to directly question Castor – despite him testifying just minutes earlier.

Gaetz then trots out Goldman’s anti-Trump tweets – asking him if he regrets tweeting “Nothing in the dossier has proved to be false (including your pee tape)” last August, then outlining all the things the dossier got wrong.

Goldman was speechless – mostly because Gaetz wouldn’t let him get a word in edgewise.

Watch:

Trump Beats Border-Crisis: Illegal Crossings Crash To Lowest Since 2013

There is a reason that you have not seen more clips of AOC et al. sobbing uncontrollably at a fenced car park, or Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer exclaiming “what about the children” in recent months.

The Left’s favorite talking point of the first half of 2019 – Trump is caging kids at the border because of his worse-than-Hitler, racist and inhumane immigration policies – has somehow evaporated in recent months…

As The Wall Street Journal reports, arrests of people crossing the southwestern border have plummeted by 75% since May, marking one of the most dramatic drops in recent history.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said Monday that 33,510 people were arrested after illegally crossing the border in November, marking the sixth straight monthly decline since May, when 132,000 such apprehensions marked a 13-year high.

In fact, The Journal notes that the May-November decline is the biggest in absolute numbers and second biggest by percentage of any six-month period this century.

The question is why?

Did the desperate immigrants seeking refuge in America’s welfare state suddenly figure out things are not so bad at home after all?
Did Soros’ (alleged) caravan-creating funds suddenly dry up?
Or did President Trump’s immigration policy changes – ‘building the wall’, increasing spending on border security, and negotiating (tariff threats) with Mexico on immigrant flows – actually work?

The answer is simple…

“This is a direct result due to this president’s strategies to address the historic flood of Central Americans, families, illegally crossing the border,” acting CBP Comissioner Mark Morgan said at a press conference Monday.

“The network of initiatives have worked and continues to work.”

The program, often called Remain in Mexico, is one of the biggest contributors to the decline of border arrests, immigration experts say. It has deterred some people from coming into the U.S., due to knowledge that they are likely to be stranded in Mexico for months while their cases are decided.

“I think the big factor has been the Trump administration policies,” said Randy Capps, director of research of U.S. programs at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.

Just as notably, Capps points out that other factors that often alter migration flows, including crime rates and unemployment in the migrants’ home countries, haven’t dramatically changed in recent months.

In Tucson, Ariz., a migrant shelter has seen arrivals drop from more than 100 a day last year to fewer than 40 recently, according to its operator, Teresa Cavendish.

In McAllen, Texas, a recently opened shelter intended for migrants had so many empty beds last month that it began to serve other members of the community.

The López Obrador government has pledged that the security efforts will be permanent.

Mission accomplished? Too soon?

end

More on the Horowitz report: The FBI did not tell the FISA curt that Carter page was a CIA operative and that the initial FBI report had a positive assessment and that was changed by another FBI agent. This agent has been referred to a criminal investigation

(Chuck Ross/National Interest)

FBI Didn’t Tell Surveillance Court That Carter Page Was “Operational Contact” For CIA With “Positive Assessment”

Authored by Chuck Ross via National Interest,

The FBI failed to inform surveillance court judges that Carter Page was an “operational contact” for the CIA for years, and that an employee at the spy agency gave the former Trump aide a “positive assessment,” according to a Justice Department report released Monday.

The finding is included in a list of seven of the FBI’s “significant inaccuracies and omissions” in applications for Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants against Page, a longtime energy consultant who joined the Trump campaign in March 2016.

The report said the FBI “omitted” information it obtained from another U.S. government agency about its prior relationship with Page.

The agency approved Page as an “operational contact” from 2008 to 2013, according to the report.

“Page had provided information to the other agency concerning his prior contacts with certain Russian intelligence officers, one of which overlapped with facts asserted in the FISA application,” the report stated.

Page told the Daily Caller News Foundation he believes the agency in question is the CIA. Page has previously said he provided information to the CIA and FBI before becoming ensnared in the bureau’s investigation of the Trump campaign.

The report stated an employee with the CIA assessed Page “candidly” described contact he had with a Russian intelligence officer in 2014. But the FBI cited Page’s contact with the officer to assert in its FISA applications that there was probable cause to believe that Page was working as a Russian agent.

The IG faulted the FBI for failing to disclose to FISA judges that Page was an operational contact for the CIA for five years, and that “Page had disclosed to the other agency contacts that he had with Intelligence Officer 1 and certain other individuals.”

The report also stated that the FBI omitted that “the other agency’s employee had given a positive assessment of Page’s candor.”

The IG said the FBI’s failure to disclose Page’s relationship with the CIA “was particularly concerning” because an FBI attorney had specifically asked an FBI case agent whether Page had a current or prior relationship with the other federal agency.

***

[editor’s note: Not only that, an FBI employee – undoubtedly ‘resistance’ lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, altered an email to specifically state that Page was “not a source” for the CIA.]

***

The FBI agent falsely asserted Page’s relationship was “outside scope” of the investigation because it dated back to when Page lived in Moscow from 2004 to 2007.

“This representation, however, was contrary to information that the other agency had provided to the FBI in August 2016, which stated that Page was approved as an ‘operational contact’ of the other agency from 2008 to 2013 (after Page had left Moscow),” the IG report stated.

The report also said Page’s CIA contacts considered him to have been candid about his interactions with a suspected Russian intelligence officer who was later indicted for acting as an unregistered agent of Russia.

end

John Solomon writes that Adam Schiff has violated Attorney- Client and Journalist-Client privilege. This is a scathing attack

(John Solomon)

John Solomon Slams Adam Schiff’s “Surveillance State” Abuse: “Chilling Effect On Press Freedom”

Authored by John Solomon,

The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide, the bible for agents, has long recognized that journalists, the clergy and lawyers deserve special protections because of the constitutional implications of investigating their work. Penitents who confess to a priest, sources who provide confidential information to a reporter, and clients who seek advice from counsel are assumed to be protected by a high bar of privacy, which must be weighed against the state’s interests in investigating matters or subpoenaing records. Judges and members of Congress also fall into a special FBI category because of the Constitution’s separation of powers.

The FBI and Justice Department have therefore created specific rules governing agents’ actions involving special-circumstances professionals, which include high-level approval and review. There are also special rules for subpoenaing journalists.

If the executive branch, and by extension the courts that enforce these privacy protections, observe the need for such sensitivity, it seems reasonable that Congress should have similar guardrails ensuring that the powers of the state are equally and fairly applied.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff apparently doesn’t see things that way.

His committee secretly authorized subpoenas to AT&T earlier this year for the phone records of President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, and an associate. He then arbitrarily extracted information about certain private calls and made them public.

Many of the calls Mr. Schiff chose to publicize fell into the special-circumstances categories: a fellow member of Congress ( Rep. Devin Nunes, the Intelligence Committee’s ranking Republican), two lawyers (Mr. Giuliani and fellow Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow ) and a journalist (me).

More alarming, the released call records involve figures who have sometimes criticized or clashed with Mr. Schiff. I wrote a story raising questions about his contacts with Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson, a key figure in the Russia probe, that brought the California Democrat unwelcome scrutiny. Mr. Nunes has been one of Mr. Schiff’s main Republican antagonists, helping to prove that the exaggerated claims of Trump-Russia election collusion were unsubstantiated. Messrs. Sekulow and Giuliani represent Mr. Trump, who is Mr. Schiff’s impeachment target.

Mr. Schiff’s actions in obtaining and publicizing private phone records trampled the attorney-client privilege of Mr. Trump and his lawyers. It intruded on my First Amendment rights to interview and contact figures like Mr. Giuliani and the Ukrainian-American businessman Lev Parnas without fear of having the dates, times and length of private conversation disclosed to the public.

Contrary to Mr. Schiff’s defense that he was simply serving the investigative interest of Congress, the release of the phone records served much more to punish people whose work Mr. Schiff found antagonistic than to fulfill an oversight purpose. And it served Congress poorly because it spread false insinuations. Mr. Schiff’s report suggested, for instance, that Mr. Giuliani called the White House to talk to the Office of Management and Budget, implying he might have been trying to help Mr. Trump withhold aid to Ukraine as Democrats allege. The White House says that claim is wrong; the number was a generic phone entry point and no one in OMB talked to Mr. Giuliani.

Likewise, Mr. Schiff published call records between Mr. Giuliani and me and suggested they involved my Ukraine stories. Many contacts I had with Mr. Giuliani involved interviews on the Mueller report and its aftermath or efforts to invite the president’s lawyer on the Hill’s TV show, which I supervised.

Mr. Schiff’s team has tried to minimize the conduct because he never subpoenaed my phone records directly but extracted them from others’ call records. That defense is laughable.

Once a journalist and his calls are made public through the powers of the surveillance state, there is an instant chilling effect on press freedom.

I know this firsthand. In 2001 and 2002, when I was a reporter for the Associated Press, the Justice Department obtained my home phone records and the FBI illegally seized my mail without a warrant in an effort to unmask my sources on federal corruption and stop publication of a story about the government’s counterterrorism failures before 9/11. In the end the FBI returned my reporting records, apologized to me privately, and announced new rules to avoid a repeat for other journalists.

Yet by that time many of my longtime sources had told me they had chosen not to contact me for fear of being detected. Others would only meet in person, concerned that my phones were wiretapped.

Similarly, in the days since Mr. Schiff’s phone-record release, I have had people who openly talked to me on the phone this year suddenly ask to communicate only by encrypted apps. They don’t want their names splashed in the next congressional report. And they fear a bipartisan open season on phone records of political opponents in the future.

Rep. Mike Turner (R., Ohio), a member of the Intelligence Committee, tells me he’s drafting legislation to put guardrails on future congressional subpoenas for phone records. That’s a good start, butmore needs to be done sooner.

Mr. Schiff appears to assume that Congress enjoys unlimited investigative powers under the Constitution’s Speech or Debate clause. He does not. I recommend the chairman examine the record in McSurely v. McClellan, a two-decade legal battle that began in 1967 and pitted a powerful committee chairman against a liberal activist couple in Kentucky. It is widely regarded—along with the McCarthy hearings of the 1950s—as one of most egregious episodes of misconduct in the modern history of congressional oversight.

In one of the final appellate decisions in that topsy-turvy case, the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled that Congressional oversight isn’t boundless and that the Speech or Debate Clause has limits. The final paragraph of that ruling derided a “sorry chapter of investigative excess.”

The judges wrote that their decision:

“can only stand as a small reaffirmation of the proposition that there are bounds to the interference that citizens must tolerate from the agents of their government—even when such agents invoke the mighty shield of the Constitution and claim official purpose to their conduct.”

That principle is due for another affirmation.

end

Kim Strassel on the Horowitz report.

(Kim Strassel)

Horowitz Report Is “Triumph” For FISA Abuse ‘Whistleblower’ Devin Nunes: WSJ’s Kim Strassel

In her usual succinct and clarifying manner, The Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel took to Twitter overnight to summarize the farcical findings within the Horowitz Report (and Barr and Durham’s responses).

In sixteen short tweets, Strassel destroyed the spin while elucidating the key findings of the Horowitz report (emphasis ours):

Yup, IG said FBI hit threshold for opening an investigation. But also goes out of its way to note what a “low threshold” this is.

Durham’s statement made clear he will provide more info for Americans to make a judgment on reasonableness.

The report is triumph for former House Intel Chair Devin Nunes, who first blew the whistle on FISA abuse. The report confirms all the elements of the February 2018 Nunes memo, which said dossier was as an “essential” part of applications, and FBI withheld info from FISA court

Conversely, the report is an excoriation of Adam Schiff and his “memo” of Feb 2018.

That doc stated that “FBI and DOJ officials did NOT abuse the [FISA] process” or “omit material information.”

Also claimed FBI didn’t much rely on dossier.

In fact, IG report says dossier played “central and essential role” in getting FISA warrants.

Schiff had access to same documents as Nunes, yet chose to misinform the public. This is the guy who just ran impeachment proceedings.

The Report is a devastating indictment of Steele, Fusion GPS and the “dossier.”

Report finds that about the only thing FBI ever corroborated in that doc were publicly available times, places, title names. Ouch.

IG finds 17 separate problems with FISA court submissions, including FBI’s overstatement of Steele’s credentials. Also the failure to provide court with exculpatory evidence and issues with Steele’s sources and additional info it got about Steele’s credibility.

Every one of these “issues” is a story all on its own.

Example: The FBI had tapes of Page and Papadopoulos making statements that were inconsistent with FBI’s own collusion theories. They did not provide these to the FISA court.

Another example: FBI later got info from professional contacts with Steele who said he suffered from “lack of self awareness, poor judgement” and “pursued people” with “no intelligence value.” FBI also did not tell the court about these credibility concerns.

And this: FBI failed to tell Court that Page was approved as an “operational contact” for another U.S. agency, and “candidly” reported his interactions with a Russian intel officer. FBI instead used that Russian interaction against Page, with no exculpatory detail.

Overall, IG was so concerned by these “extensive compliance failures” that is has now initiated additional “oversight” to assess how FBI in general complies with “policies that seek to protect the civil liberties of U.S. persons.”

The Report also expressed concerns about FBI’s failure to present any of these issues to DOJ higher ups; its ongoing contacts with Steele after he was fired for talking to media; and its use of spies against the campaign without any DOJ input.

Remember Comey telling us it was no big deal who paid for dossier?

Turns out it was a big deal in FBI/DOJ, where one lawyer (Stuart Evans) expressed “concerns” it had been funded by Clinton/DNC. Because of his “consistent inquiries” we go that convoluted footnote.

IG also slaps FBI for using what was supposed to be a baseline briefing for the Trump campaign of foreign intelligence threats as a surreptitious opportunity to investigate Flynn.

Strassel’s last point is perhaps the most important for those on the left claiming “vindication”…

When IG says he found no “documentary” evidence of bias, he means just that: He didn’t find smoking gun email that says “let’s take out Trump.”

And it isn’t his job to guess at the motivations of FBI employees.

Instead… He straightforwardly lays out facts.

Those facts produce a pattern of FBI playing the FISA Court–overstating some info, omitting other info, cherrypicking details.

Americans can look at totality and make their own judgment as to “why” FBI behaved in such a manner.

Finally, intriguing just how many people at the FBI don’t remember anything about anything. Highly convenient.

end

The FBI acted in bad faith..It will be Durham who will get to the bottom of the genesis of Russiagate

(zerohedge)

Barr Skips Over IG Report To Durham, Says FBI May Have Acted In ‘Bad Faith’

Attorney General William Barr says he believes the FBI may have been operating in “bad faith” when it launched a counterintelligence operation against the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election, and that we should wait until his hand-picked prosecutor is done with his investigation of what happened.

“[T]hese irregularities, these misstatements, these omissions were not satisfactorily explained,” said Barr in a lengthy interview with NBC, just one day after DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz released the so-called FISA report.

“And I think that leaves open the possibility to infer bad faith. I think it’s premature now to reach a judgment on that, but I think that further work has to be done and that’s what Durham is doing,” he added, referring to US Attorney John Durham – who Barr hand picked to lead a concurrent investigation into the 2016 US election.

Barr described Durham’s role as “Looking at the issue of how it got started. He’s looking at whether or not the narrative of Trump being involved in the Russian interference actually preceded July, and was it in fact what precipitated the trigger for the investigation.”

“He’s also looking at the conduct of the investigation,” added Barr – who then said that he instructed Durham to look just as carefully into the “post-election period.”

“I did that because of some of the stuff that Horowitz has uncovered, which to me is inexplicable. Their case collapsed after the election, and they never told the court, and they kept on getting renewals on these applications. There was documents falsified in order to get these renewals. There was all kinds of withholding of information from the court. And the question really is ‘what was the agenda after the election that kept them pressing ahead, after their case collapsed?’ This is the president of the Untied States!”

Barr, who has characterized the FBI’s actions during Trump-Russia investigation as spying, slammed the Obama DOJ and the press for the Russiagate narrative that President Trump and his campaign colluded with Russia to win the election.

“I think our nation was turned on its head for three years based on a completely bogus narrative that was largely fanned and hyped by a completely irresponsible press,” Barr said.

Developing…

end

Lisa Page sues the FBI and DOJ. I think her suing is a little premature. She still has to deal with Durham.

(zerohedge)

No Insurance Policy? Lisa Page Sues FBI, DOJ For “Unlawful” Disclosure Of Strzok Texts

Remember Lisa Page? She was the never-Trumping partisan FBI lawyer who, together with her lover Peter Strzok, was among the first FBI agents fired for “bias” on the job as part of their probe of Trump’s “collusion” with Russia. She was also the one whose nearly 400 text messages with Strzok disclosed the presence of an “insurance policy” to prevent a Trump presidency.

Unfortunately for Lisa, she never came up with an insurance policy should Trump win the election and all her scheming come to light and grace the front pages of the world’s newspaper. Except to sue that is.

Lisa Page@NatSecLisa

I sued the Department of Justice and FBI today.

I take little joy in having done so. But what they did in leaking my messages to the press was not only wrong, it was illegal.https://www.lawfareblog.com/former-fbi-lawyer-lisa-page-sues-justice-department-and-fbi …

Former FBI Lawyer Lisa Page Sues Justice Department and FBI

On Dec. 10, Lisa Page filed a complaint against the Department of Justice and the FBI for alleged violations of the Privacy Act related to the disclosure of information about her to the media. The

lawfareblog.com

On Tuesday, Page – who has been a frequent target of President Donald Trump’s barbed tweets and fake orgasms – sued the Justice Department and the FBI over what she claims were illegal leaks to media outlets of her nearly 400 text messages with Strzok. These leaks are not to be confused with the near-daily leaking of virtually everything president Trump does by her colleagues at the FBI, CIA, NSA, and so on.

In her complaint, Page alleges “shocking and egregious behavior” – in the worlds of the ultraliberal Lawfare blog – by DOJ officials, specifically Rod Rosenstein and Sarah Flores.

Page’s lawsuit alleging violation of the Privacy Act came a day after the Justice Department’s internal watchdog in a new report said she “did not play a role in the decision” to open a probe into the Trump’s 2016 campaign even though Trump has argued that the bias against him by the married Page and FBI Agent Peter Strzok as displayed in their private text messages played a key role in the FBI’s decision.

Page’s text messages with Strzok were released “to a group of reporters” as part of a 90-page document by the Justice Department in December 2017, notes her suit, filed in federal court in Washington, D.C.

The officials who authorized their release “and their allies sought to use, and ultimately did use, the messages to promote the false narrative that [Page] and others at the FBI were biased against President Trump, had conspired to undermine him, and had otherwise had engaged in allegedly criminal acts, including treason.” According to the lawsuit, at the time the messages were part of a larger group of materials that was under review by the Justice Department’s Office of Inspector General “for evidence of potential bias in the FBI’s investigation of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server for government communications.”

In other words, it’s ok to plot against an American citizen and launch a full blown investigation – and spying in the words of the US attorney general – on nothing more than competitor-funded opposition research, but once the details of your activity become common knowledge, well, that’s really going too far.

Indeed, as the above mentioned ultraliberal Lawfare blog was quick to explain, all Page did was a simple “mistake“:

Page made mistakes, which were appropriately addressed as a personnel matter. What happened following that was in no way justified or acceptable. It was politically motivated and it was wrong.

It gets better.

In her recent attempt to rehabilitate herself, Page gave an interview to The Daily Beast in which she said that whenever Trump mentions her name on Twitter or at political rallies “it’s like being punched in the gut.

“My heart drops to my stomach when I realize he has tweeted about me again,” Page told The Daily Beat. “The president of the United States is calling me names to the entire world. He’s demeaning me and my career. It’s sickening.”

Here’s a thought: perhaps if he didn’t have a reason to do so, he wouldn’t do it? To Page though, that thought is lost. Instead she complained that “when the president accuses you of treason by name, despite the fact that I know there’s no fathomable way that I have committed any crime at all, let alone treason, he’s still somebody in a position to actually do something about that. To try to further destroy my life. It never goes away or stops, even when he’s not publicly attacking me.”

We look forward to finding if John Durham shares her conclusion.

Page’s lawsuit is below (pdf link).

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

BBG: Fed’s Repo Action for Year-End Crunch Point Oversubscribed

Market participants submitted $43 billion in bids for the Fed’s 28-day term repo operation, which matures Jan. 6, 2020. That was more than the $35 billion on offer… The Fed also conducted and overnight repo operation Monday with a limit of $120 billion… attracting just $56.4 billion of bids.

WaPo: Democrats expected to draft two articles of impeachment against Trump, one on abuse of power, the other on obstruction of Congress [The 1^st article lacks a specific criminal act; the 2^nd article is due to Trump exercising his constitutional right of judicial review. Obviously, this is a panicky move.]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/calling-trump-a-risk-to-the-country-democrats-outline-case-for-multiple-articles-of-impeachment/2019/12/09/b38a8270-1a91-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html

Today – The FOMC’s 2-day meeting commences. Normally, traders want to be long into these meetings. However, Fed officials have repeatedly stated that rate cuts are on hold. The great November Employment Report has assuaged recession fears. So, the odds of a dovish Fed Communique and Powell press conference are miniscule. This should chill the usual bullish buying ahead of the communique

The Horowitz Report was released on Monday. The MSM, as expected and foretold by leaks, emphasized that the FBI had a predicate to open an investigation and it was not political. The report shows wide-spread FISA abuses and FBI/DoJ misconduct. Most importantly, the report says the debunked Steele Dossier was used to procure FISA warrants. Ex-CIA Chief Brennan and Ex-DNI Chief Clapper testified to Congress that the Steele Dossier was NOT used to procure FISA warrants.

Both US AG Barr and US Attorney John Durham took the unusual step of quickly and very publically challenging Horowitz’s conclusion, citing “evidence”, that the FBI investigation was warranted.

US Attorney Durham objects to IG findings on Russia probe origins in stunning statement

“Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened,” U.S. Attorney John Durham said in a statement…

“I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff,” Durham said. “However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department. Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/barr-blasts-fbi-over-intrusive-probe-of-trump-campaign-in-wake-of-fisa-report

Attorney General Bill Barr: “The Inspector General’s report now makes clear that the FBI launched an intrusive investigation of a U.S. presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken. It is also clear that, from its inception, the evidence produced by the investigation was consistently exculpatory. Nevertheless, the investigation and surveillance was pushed forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s administration. In the rush to obtain and maintain FISA surveillance of Trump campaign associates, FBI officials misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts from their filings, and suppressed or ignored information negating the reliability of their principal source.

“The Inspector General found the explanations given for these actions unsatisfactory. While most of the misconduct identified by the Inspector General was committed in 2016 and 2017 by a small group of now-former FBI officials, the malfeasance and misfeasance detailed in the Inspector General’s report reflects a clear abuse of the FISA process.”…

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/statement-attorney-general-william-p-barr-inspector-generals-report-review-four-fisa

Horowitz’s Inspector General Report https://www.justice.gov/storage/120919-examination.pdf

Some of the bad stuff in Horowitz’s Report

The FBI Intel Section Chief told us that the CIA viewed the Steele reporting as ‘internet rumor’.
According to [FBI] Case Agent 2, in hindsight ‘[c]learly [Steele] wasn’t truthful with us. Clearly.’
We concluded that the failures described above and in this report represent serious performance failures by the supervisory and non-supervisory agents with responsibility over the FISA applications.
We identified at least 17 significant errors or omissions in Carter Page FISA applications, and many additional errors in the Woods Procedures.
There were “seven significant inaccuracies and omissions” in the FISA warrant application.
None of these inaccuracies and omissions were brought to the attention of OI before the last FISA application was filed in June 2017. Consequently, these failures were repeated in all three renewal applications.
[It is] clear that, from its inception, the evidence produced by the investigation was consistently exculpatory. Nevertheless, the investigation and surveillance was pushed forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s admin.”
Much of that information was inconsistent with, or undercut, the assertions contained in the FISA applications that were used to support probable cause and, in some instances, resulted in inaccurate information being included in the applications.”
We found that the FBI did not have information corroborating the specific allegations against Carter Page in Steele’s reporting when it relied upon his reports in the first FISA application or subsequent renewal applications.
The Crossfire Hurricane team failed to inform Department officials of significant information that was available to the team at the time that the FISA applications were drafted and filed.
We further found that while Strzok was directly involved in the decisions to open Crossfire Hurricane and the four individual cases, he was not the sole, or even the highest-level, decision maker as to any of those matters.
Two witnesses, Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS co-founder) and Jonathan Winer (ex-DoJ official), declined our requests for voluntary interviews, and we were unable to compel their testimony.
The FBI used Christopher Steele to get information on General Flynn. The FBI promised Steele he would be paid “significantly” for information.

Comey’s name does not appear in Horowitz’s report – even though he reportedly signed off on three FISA warrant applications. This could be very bad news for Jim. It suggests that the Comey ‘stuff’ was redacted at the insistence of special prosecutor Durham.

Ex-NSC official @RichHiggins_DC: The DOJ/FBI used a “FRAUDULENT WARRANT” to SPY on the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES……just keep repeating it.

GOP @RepMarkMeadows: What IG report page 341 tells you: the FBI used a defensive briefing with the Trump campaign as a tool for an investigation into its members. Unbelievable.

Page 64. Andy McCabe kept Peter Strzok on the Crossfire Hurricane team, despite warnings. IG says there were even times Strzok (and Lisa Page) evidently bypassed chain of command to advise specifically McCabe about case related information. Red flag.

The “no bias” talking point you see is misdirection from the left. See this line, from the IG: “Our role in this review was not to second-guess discretionary judgments by Department personnel about whether to open an investigation”

@seanmdav: In 2017, the FBI told @ChuckGrassley in a letter that it provided a “defensive briefing” to Trump and his campaign in 2016. The IG report today shows that claim was a lie. The FBI attended the briefing to spy on the Trump team, not warn it of Russian attempts to infiltrate it.

Buried in the IG report is the revelation that Stefan Halper, referred to only as “Source 2”,… was previously terminated as a source by the FBI due to “questionable allegiances.

An appendix to the IG report details 35 (!) separate claims in the Carter Page FISAs that included zero supporting documentation, documentation that didn’t support the claims, or documentation that *directly refuted* the claims made to the spy court

Solomon: IG excoriates FBI conduct in Russia probe, concludes FISA warrants misled court

https://johnsolomonreports.com/ig-excoriates-fbi-conduct-in-russia-probe-concludes-fisa-warrants-misled-court/

IG Report Reveals Comey Did Brief Obama on Trump Campaign Investigation

https://amgreatness.com/2019/12/09/ig-report-reveals-comey-did-brief-obama-on-trump-campaign-investigation/

@HowleyReporter: So OBAMA [was involved in the spy operation]

1) Wanted McCabe to give him everything he had on Russia (179) [Page#]

2) Got privately briefed by Comey in Situation Room (77)

3) Told FBI in July 2016 to do “defensive briefs” (77)

4) Made request that led FBI to disseminate Steele Dossier to Intelligence Community (177)

FBI ‘Altered’ Evidence That Falsely Cast Carter Page as Russian Spy, Report Says

https://www.dailywire.com/news/bombshell-fbi-altered-evidence-that-falsely-cast-carter-page-as-russian-spy-report-says/

GOP Senator Burr, head of Senate Intel Com, has persistently worked against Trump and sided with his Dem sidekick Sen. Warner. Horowitz’s Report has a possible explanation.

@HowleyReporter: BOOM, COMEY’S SKULLDUGGERY. EMAILED STRZOK AND OTHERS ON DECEMBER 17 (p. 178) to discuss his call with Clapper: “During a secure call last night on this general topic, I informed the DNI that we would be contributing the [Steele] reporting (although I didn’t use that name)..(1)… Senator Burr had mentioned to me..part about Russian knowledge of sexual activity by..President-Elect while in Russia..DNI asked whether anyone in the White House was aware of this and I said “not to my knowledge.” He thanked me for letting him know and we didn’t discuss further…

NYT: Barr Allows for Release of Additional Details about Ex-Spy behind Steele Dossier

The British former spy was told on the eve of its release that a highly anticipated inspector general’s report would contain further information about him than he had expected…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/09/us/politics/ig-report-steele-dossier.html

Trump on IG report: “It’s a disgrace what’s happened with things that were done to our country, it’s incredible, far worse than what I ever thought possible. It’s a very sad day when I see that, probably something that’s never happened in the history of our country.”

At Nadler’s first hearing, the ‘witnesses’ were four law professors. Yesterday’s witnesses were staff attorneys! You can’t make this up!!!! Nadler’s hearing on Monday degenerated into a circus that violated House rules repeatedly. PS – Team Nadler rehearsed the hearing on Saturday and Sunday!

https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1204048600847794176?s=09

GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: The House rule requires that members and staff refrain from impugning the motivations of the President. Chairman Nadler ruled that his staffer was a witness, then told the committee that the staffer was not a witness. Chairman Nadler was OUT OF ORDER with his ruling.

We’re in a recess after almost three hours of this Impeachment hearing. Chairman Nadler continues to run a bizarre process. Members of Congress haven’t been able to ask questions yet; we’re just listening to staff talk. This audacity should outrage every American

GOP@RepGosar: The impeachment circus spirals further off the rails. Now staff are questioning each other, while the Members of Congress elected by the American people sit idly by. Total waste of time and taxpayer money!

@RaheemKassam: Dem counsel Goldman just COLLAPSED under Qs from @RepDougCollins. Asked how/why Dems published phone records of Members of Congress, journalists, and others, Goldman went white… and eventually mumbled: “I am not going to tell you how we conducted this investigation”.

@paulsperry_: ABC, NBC and CBS all switch back to regular programming, stop covering impeachment hearings live as Republican committee members show video evidence of Biden & son’s quid pro quo and lay out reasons House is investigating the wrong man

Cass Sunstein, whom Nadler impeachment committee is relying on as impeachment expert, is married to Samantha Power, who is implicated in NSA unmaskings of Trump campaign officials

@MarkBednar: @RepRatcliffe tells @BretBaier: “The Democrats have burned the life boats behind them. They’ve made this decision, they’ve got nowhere to go. “They have to answer to their base. I think it’s a terrible decision for the American people.” https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1204185961510424579

Democratic congressman says Trump must be impeached to deal with ‘original sin’ of slavery

Democratic Texas Rep. Al Green… “Slavery was the thing that put all of what President Trump has done lately into motion…”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/democratic-congressman-says-trump-must-be-impeached-to-deal-with-original-sin-of-slavery

Giuliani says he hopes to present findings of Ukraine trip to GOP this week

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/473653-giuliani-says-he-hopes-to-present-findings-of-ukraine-trip-to-gop

There is crystal clear evidence of profound FISA abuse. We don’t know if FISA Court justices were involved. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Roberts is in charge of the FISA Court. The Constitution says the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presided over a Senate impeachment trial. Roberts has a blatant and glaring conflict of interest. If Trump or GOP petitions the Supreme Court to dismiss the House’s impeachment articles or evidence, how will Roberts vote? If he allows a Senate trial to proceed, Roberts has a huge problem.

Biden Blames Staff for Not Flagging Burisma Concerns; Says We Should Just Trust Hunter and Not Investigate https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-blames-staff-not-flagging-burisma-concerns-says-we-should-just-trust-hunter-and-not

Due to Nadler Circus and Horowitz’s Report, this tres important WaPo story is being ignored:

WaPo: U.S. officials misled the public about the war in Afghanistan, confidential documents reveal

THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS – A secret history of the war – AT WAR WITH THE TRUTH

U.S. officials constantly said they were making progress. They were not, and they knew it.

Senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable…

“We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan — we didn’t know what we were doing,” Douglas Lute, a three-star Army general who served as the White House’s Afghan war czar during the Bush and Obama administrations, told government interviewers in 2015. He added: “What are we trying to do here? We didn’t have the foggiest notion of what we were undertaking.”

“If the American people knew the magnitude of this dysfunction . . . 2,400 lives lost,” Lute added, blaming the deaths of U.S. military personnel on bureaucratic breakdowns among Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department. “Who will say this was in vain?”…

“What did we get for this $1 trillion effort? Was it worth $1 trillion?”…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/

Remember, Horowitz is scheduled to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee tomorrow. He will be grilled by GOP senators over his conclusions that Barr and Durham have challenged. Plus, he will have to answer embarrassing questions about his omissions – like why he never asked FBI/DoJ officials why they never alerted Trump that the Russians were trying to penetrate his campaign.

Well that is all for today

I will see you Wednesday night.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DEC CONTRACT: 1864 NOTICE(S) FOR 16400 OZ (0.5101 tonnes)

138 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000 OZ/

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 7329 DOWN 9

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7219 DOWN 112

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Let us head over to the comex:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 227,900 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 197,663 contracts

INITIAL standings for DEC/GOLD

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC .

INITIAL standings/SILVER

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Trump cripples World Trade Organization as trade war rages

Pam and Russ Martens: BIS bombshell — 4 U.S. banks are at heart of repo loan crisis

BIS Drops a Bombshell: Four U.S. Mega Banks Are Core of Repo Loan Crisis

iii) Other physical stories:

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

Stocks Drop As Tariff Deadline, Central Banks Looms

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

China’s Pork Hyperinflation Hits A Record 110%, Keeping Credit Growth In Check

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Photos Show Greek Fighter Jet ‘Locked On’ To Turkish Warships Near Cyprus

FREXIT – Is France Hurling Towards Leaving The EU?

Number-Crunching The Polls Points To Big Tory Win In UK Election

Polls Used

Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification

New Polling Technology

2017 Results – Actual vs YouGov vs Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus Predict Election

Electoral Calculus Result Excluding Opinium

Electoral Calculus Survation Model

What If?

Seat By Seat Projections

Labour a Complete Loser

YouGov Projections

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey Ready To Deploy Troops In Libya Against Haftar Offensive: Erdogan

After Rockets Hit Baghdad Airport Base, US Says Iran Targeting Americans

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Dollar Stumble As Traders Reach ‘Peak FOMO’

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Futures Jump On WSJ Report Next Round Of Tariffs To Be Delayed

US Productivity Slumps Most Since 2015

Major Freight Carrier Bankrupted, Leaving 3,000 Truckers Jobless, Many Stranded On Highways

Small Business Optimism Surges As Plans To Raise Worker Compensation Soar Most In 30 Years

White House, Democrats Reach “Infinitely Better” Deal On NAFTA 2.0

Diesel Demand Slump Signals Manufacturing Recession Is Still Raging

‘A Clear Abuse’: Barr, Durham Object To IG FISA Probe Findings In Stunning Statements

Fireworks Erupt As Matt Gaetz Goes Off On ‘Non-Partisan’ Democrat Impeachment Lawyer

Trump Beats Border-Crisis: Illegal Crossings Crash To Lowest Since 2013

FBI Didn’t Tell Surveillance Court That Carter Page Was “Operational Contact” For CIA With “Positive Assessment”

John Solomon Slams Adam Schiff’s “Surveillance State” Abuse: “Chilling Effect On Press Freedom”

Horowitz Report Is “Triumph” For FISA Abuse ‘Whistleblower’ Devin Nunes: WSJ’s Kim Strassel

Barr Skips Over IG Report To Durham, Says FBI May Have Acted In ‘Bad Faith’

No Insurance Policy? Lisa Page Sues FBI, DOJ For “Unlawful” Disclosure Of Strzok Texts

Former FBI Lawyer Lisa Page Sues Justice Department and FBI

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