GOLD:$1470.65 UP $7.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:$16.79 UP 13 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING) :

Closing access prices:

Gold : $1475.05

silver: $16.87

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 444/867

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,462.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/10/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 12/12/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 828
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 206
152 C DORMAN TRADING 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 72
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN 444
685 C RJ OBRIEN 3
690 C ABN AMRO 5 23
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 21
800 C MAREX SPEC 16 89
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 867 867
MONTH TO DATE: 12,660

we are coming very close to a commercial failure!!

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DEC CONTRACT: 867 NOTICE(S) FOR 86700 OZ (2.696 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 12,660 NOTICES FOR 1,266,000 OZ (39.3779 TONNES)

SILVER

FOR DEC

183 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3115 for 15,575,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 7197 DOWN 26

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7176 DOWN 48

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1809 CONTRACTS FROM 204,067 DOWN TO 202,258 DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.

TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,

; DEC 0; MARCH: 1466 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1466 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1466 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1466 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.330 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR JULY

10.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

18.715 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN DEC

YESTERDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 5 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI ON BOTH EXCHANGES TOTALED 337 CONTRACTS. OR 1.685 MILLION OZ..…

ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR INCREASE OF OI CONTRACTS IN SILVER.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC:

19,081 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,081 CONTRACTS) OR 95.405 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2120 CONTRACTS OR 10.60 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC: 95.405 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 2,179.74 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136.55 MILLION OZ

JUNE 2019 , TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 265.38 MILLION OZ

JULY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175.74 MILLION OZ

AUG. 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 216.47 MILLION OZ

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 174.900 MILLION OZ

OCT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 146.14 MILLION OZ

NOV 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 213.60 MILLION OZ.

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY MORPH INTO SILVER AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JANUARY.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER. THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEWCOMERS HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY FOR SILVER:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH OF DEC BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JAN), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1809, DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1466 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A FAIR SIZED: 343 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1466 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1809 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.66 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.033 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 183 NOTICE(S) FOR 915,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ// NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC: 18.715 MILLION OZ
THE RECORD WAS SET IN AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78//.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 986 CONTRACTS, AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THAT NEW ALL TIME RECORD OF 719,211 (SET NOV 20/2019). THE NEW OI RESTS AT 690,003. THE FALL IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE A $3.00 PRICING GAIN ACCOMPANYING COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY// /

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6882 CONTRACTS:

DEC 2019: 0 CONTRACTS, FEB> 6882 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 690,594,,. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5896 CONTRACTS: 986 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6882 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5896 CONTRACTS OR 589,600 OZ OR 18.33 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF $3.00 IN GOLD TRADING….

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 18.33 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (UP $3.00) . THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (18.33 TONNES). THE SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO SILVER.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 77,958 CONTRACTS OR 7,795,800 oz OR 242.48 TONNES (9 TRADING DAY AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,662 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 242.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 242.48/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

WE ARE WITNESSING AN INCREASING USE OF OUR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL MECHANISM TO MOVE CONTRACTS OFF OF NY AND INTO LONDON. IT BEGAN IN JUNE 2019 AND CONTINUES TO THIS DAY.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 5968.16 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 449.10 TONNES

JUNE 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 642.22 TONNES

JULY 2019: TOTAL ISSUANCE: 591.56 TONNES

AUG. 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 639.62 TONNES

SEPT 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 509.57 TONNES

OCT 2019 EFP ISSUANCE 497.16 TONNES

NOV.2019 EFP ISSUANCE: 568.20 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

Result: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 986 DESPITE THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY($3.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6882 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6682 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5896 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6882 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 986 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 18.33 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $3.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

THE COMEX IS NOW UNDER FULL ASSAULT WITH RESPECT TO GOLD AND SILVER.

we had: 867 notice(s) filed upon for 86,700 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY//(COMEX-TO COMEX)

ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A SMALL .3 TONNES WITHDRAWAL

DEC 11/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 885.93 tonnes

THEN LATE TONIGHT: AN ADDITION OF .26 TONNES

DEC 11//FINAL INVENTORY 886.22 TONNES

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

DEC 11/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

end

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1809 CONTRACTS from 204,067 DOWN TO 202,258 AND FURTHER FROM A NEW COMEX RECORD. THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 2 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

FOR DEC. 0; FOR MAR 1466: AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1466 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1809 CONTRACTS TO THE 1466 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 343 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.715 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY NOW 2.660 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE WITH JULY AT 22.605 MILLION OZ AUGUST AT 10.025 MILLION OZ// SEPT: 43.030 MILLION OZ///OCT: 7.32 MILLION OZ//NOV 2.63 MILLION OZ//DEC: 18.71 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1466 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.10 POINTS OR 0.24% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 208.81 POINTS OR 0.79% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 18.33 POINTS OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 7.0397 /Oil UP TO 58.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0397 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0383 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

i)The yuan tumbles after Navarro warns that trump has not been any indication that tariffs will be delayed

(zerohedge)

ii)We continue to see poor results out of China and even these are fudged. Today an unprecedented China auto collapse as it is now heading into its third year: November had a huge 4.2% drop

(zerohedge)

iii)China still claims it does not need uSA Pork or Soybeans as they scour the planet for other sources

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

The pound goes on a roller coaster ride with the report that although the conservatives have a strong lead that might dissipate if the turn out is low.

(zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Oh OH..this is dangerous…Turkey is threatening to revoke the USA nuclear base in Incirlik Turkey after the sanctions bill advances to the Senate floor. Also problematic is Turkey’s endeavours in the Mediterranean re the Cyprus gas affair and their willingness to invade Libya and attack General Hafter, a strong supporter of the uSA

(zerohedge)

6.Global Issues

i)Mish Shedlock describes the new NAFTA 2 and to him it is really a nothingburger.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)WTO/USA

Trump shuts down the WTO appeals court as it sends the EU and China scrambling. Trump does not like the verdicts imposed by the court

(zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Aramco stock goes limit up in its debut due to the fact that the Saudi leadership forced locals to buy this crap

(zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL

Meat prices spike by % in Brazil. This is deadly to Brazil as cattle is their bread and butter and key to their exports

(zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Claudio Grass states that negative rates not only destroys our economy but also destroys the value of time

a great read..

(courtesy Claudio Grass)

ii)Very important: Mnuchin is interviewed and refuses to tell why the repo money has to be given by the Fed to Wal Street, including Hedge funds which are not allowed to receive Fed bail out money

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street Journal)

iii)Holland states that we should load up on debt since since it may be all written off very soon

(Holland/Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)Craig Hemke discusses that 2020 will see new QE4 and thus this will be good for gold

(Craig Hemke)

v)We have provided this to you yesterday but it worth repeating: the main assertion: that even though Gold ETF holdings are surging, the question is do they actually hold any gold? I do not believe that they do hold any gold.

(Stefan Gleason/GATA

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

a)Consumer prices jump the most in a year but goods used to produce other goods are deceerating in price

(zerohedge)

b)We are clearly heading for a post 1 trillion dollar deficit

The deficit for November came in at $209 billion

(Market Watch)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

a)Your most important commentary for today: the author is commenting on the Pozsar paper yesterday where the latter describes that we will probably had a nightmare on Dec 31 due to lack of liquidity Poszar is worried that the repo rate will skyrocket because of this. Skyrm, another brilliant individual believes the Fed will increase the Rep money to save the system. However if the Rep rates continue to rise despite this, then all bets are off

(zerohedge)

b)Boeing not a happy camper today as the FAA chief says that the 737 Max will not return this year

(zerohedge)

c)CHINA/USALate this afternoon, Peter Navarro now highlights case for more Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

iv) Swamp commentaries)

a)Schiff memo is now debunked by the new I G report. Nunes is vindicated

(zerohedge)

b)it now seems that the Senate Republicans are now willing to let the Bidens off the hook. They want a fast vote and then get on with things. The Senate has enough votes to acquit

(zerohedge)

c)Horowitz just shot all our Democrat loving FBI agents in the head in his testimony: “Nobody is vindicated who touched FISA” ie. Comey, Strzok, Page etc.

(zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

LET US BEGIN:

Let us head over to the comex:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 986CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 690,003DESPITE THE GAIN OF $3.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6882 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

DEC: 0 ; FEB: 6882AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6882 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5896 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6882 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 986 COMEX CONTRACTS.

THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY AND INFINITE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER IN GOLD. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE AS THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID WITHIN ONE SECOND OF FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT OF JOB GAINS//// (IT ROSE $3.00). AND THEY WERE MOST DEFINITELY UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE GAINED 5896 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5896 CONTRACTS OR 589,600 OZ OR 18.33 TONNES. ( PLUS THE GAIN IN TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX 0.3950 TONNES)

We are now in the active contract month of DEC. This month is always the biggest delivery month of the year. Here we have a total of 1370 open interest stand for a LOSS of 37 contracts. We had 164 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED FOR THE SEVENTH DAY, A STRONG+++ 127 contracts or an additional 12,700 will stand (0.3950 TONNES) for delivery at the comex as they will try their luck finding physical metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards and negated on receiving a fiat bonus.

The next non active contract month after Dec, is January and it saw its OI INCREASE by 36 contracts UP to 5236 which is extremely high for a January delivery month.. The next active delivery month after January is February and here we witnessed A LOSS OF 3091 in contracts DOWN to 493,994.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1809 CONTRACTS FROM 204,067 DOWN TO 202,258(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A GOOD 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICING/TUESDAY.

INITIAL standings for DEC/GOLD

DEC 11/2019

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	1382.45 oz Scotia 43 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	867 notice(s) 86700 OZ (2.6967 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)	503 contracts (50300 oz) 1.564 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,660 notices 1,266,000 OZ 36.937 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

for the first time in quite a while we have had considerable gold activity

we had 0 dealer entry:

We had 1 kilobar entries

ii) out of Scotia: 1382.45 oz (43 kilobars)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,660) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1370 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (867 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,317,200 OZ OR 40.970 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of DEC

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (12,660 x 100 oz) + (1370)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (867 x 100 oz )which equals 1,317,200 oz standing OR 40.970 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC.

We gained 127 contracts or an additional 12,700 oz will stand at the comex as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

WHY ARE THEY NOT SETTLING?

THE COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD..WE HAVE ZERO SETTLEMENTS.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC .

INITIAL standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.

DEC 11 2019

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	8047.70 oz Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil
No of oz served today (contracts)	183 CONTRACT(S) (915,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	781 contracts 3,905,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	3115 contracts 15,575,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

ii) Into everybody else: 0

total dealer silver: 86.312 million

total dealer + customer silver: 315.917 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2019. contract month is represented by 183 contract(s) FOR 915,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3115 x 5,000 oz = 15,575,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (811) and the number of notices served upon today 183 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2019 contract month: 3115 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (811)- number of notices served upon today (183) x 5000 oz equals 18,710,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.

We gained 30 contracts or an additional 150,000 oz will stand at the comex as they, refused to morphed into London based forwards.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE COMEX IS UNDER ASSAULT FOR BOTH PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER WITH SILVER IN THE LEAD BY FAR. DESPITE MASSIVE RAIDS, LONGS CONTINUE WITH THEIR HUNT AT THE COMEX FOR PHYSICAL METAL.. IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE WE WITNESS A COMMERCIAL FAILURE..STAY TUNED..WE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING IN SILVER TODAY AND AN ATTEMPTED BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD WITH ZERO SUCCESS.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 53,398 CONTRACTS //

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 53,099 CONTRACTS..

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 53,099 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 265 million OZ 37.9.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..makes sense!!

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.37% ((DEC 11/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.46% to NAV (DEC 11/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ -1.37%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 14.63 TRADING 14.16///DISCOUNT 3,18

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 11/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .30 TONNES AND THEN A DEPOSIT .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.22 TONNES

DEC 10//WITH GOLD UP $3.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $.60: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.34 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.23 TONNES

DEC 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 5/2019: WITH GOLD UP $3.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.57 TONNES

DEC 4/2019/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.16 TONNES

DEC 2 /WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL TO PAY FOR FEES ETC./INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.60 TONNES

NOV 27//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES//

NOV 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY:: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 4.69 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.48 TONNES

NOV 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 21/ WITH GOLD DOWN $10.85 //NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE: A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.98 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD AND THIS WITH A GOLD PRICE RISE?/INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES

NOV 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES (PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 896.77 TONNES

NOV 12: WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 897.09 TONES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50 TODAY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 13.19 PAPER TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 901.19 TONNES

NOV 7/2019 WITH GOLD DOWN $35.55 TODAY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.38 TONNES

NOV 6/2019 WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.85 TONNES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.00//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.67 TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.75 TODAY: A CONSIDERABLE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914,67 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.55 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 12/2019/Inventory rests tonight at 886.22 tonnes

*IN LAST 722 TRADING DAYS: 51.06 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 622 TRADING DAYS: A NET 115.99 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10//WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.495 MILLION OZ//// INVENTORY RESTS AT 365.605 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.869 MILLION OZ FROM SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.100 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 5//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ//

DEC 3//WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.512 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.969 MILLION OZ..

DEC 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 370.481 MILLION OZ//

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 372.864 MILLION OZ//

NOV 26//WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 374.732 MILLION OZ/

NOV 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TO DAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/ WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/a big CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 84,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 374.732 MILLION OZ//

NOV 20/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ//

NOV 18/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.074 MILLION OZ F FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.574 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ//

NOV 14/ WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.524 MILLION /INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.648 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ..

NOV 11/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ///

NOV 8/2019 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 57 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 379.172

NOV 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.804 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY REST AT 379.172 MILLION OZ

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 157,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.368 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1//WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 376.525 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 1.85/ and libor 6 month duration 1.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE:+ .03

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.91%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 1.93

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = +.02

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

U.S. Bank Lending Crisis Is Not a “Temporary Hiccup” – BIS

10, December

◆ U.S. banks couldn’t quickly fund lending market when rates spiked & hedge funds ‘compounded the strains’ in vital part of finance – BIS report

◆ The Bank for International Settlements — the central bank of central banks says that the ongoing mayhem in the U.S. repo market which began in September and has seen over $3 trillion pumped into the U.S. banking system suggests that there is a very serious structural problem at the heart of the U.S. financial system

◆ Hedge funds exacerbated the turmoil in the repo market with their thirst for borrowing cash to juice up returns on their trades.

◆ The market was upended in part because four U.S. banks now hold more of their liquid assets in Treasuries relative to what they park at the Federal Reserve which meant “their ability to supply funding at short notice in repo markets was diminished”

◆ The market relies heavily on just four big U.S. banks for funding and the incident is not just a temporary hiccup according to the latest analysis from the Bank for International Settlements.

◆ Investors need to be proactive and become more defensive in their asset allocation to hedge the increasing financial and systemic risks.

Full article via Bloomberg

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Gold little changed ahead of Fed meeting, U.S. tariff deadline

Gold prices slip a bit ahead of Fed meeting this week

Wall St falls as health, tech shares drag, tariff deadline looms

Paul Volcker, the Carter-Reagan Fed chairman who beat inflation, dies at age 92

US firms dominate arms sales list as 2018 global spend rises to $420 billion

‘It’s now or never’: Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks in Paris

World’s largest printer of money is running out of cash

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

09-Dec-19 1463.60 1461.70, 1112.04 1111.48 & 1323.09 1320.06
06-Dec-19 1474.85 1459.65, 1122.80 1112.40 & 1328.54 1320.25
05-Dec-19 1474.60 1475.95, 1122.76 1122.31 & 1329.65 1329.54
04-Dec-19 1475.85 1475.10, 1131.53 1125.94 & 1332.54 1327.89
03-Dec-19 1470.40 1477.30, 1132.50 1136.78 & 1328.51 1333.12
02-Dec-19 1457.50 1461.15, 1130.00 1130.05 & 1323.26 1321.17
29-Nov-19 1456.35 1460.15, 1129.55 1131.32 & 1323.24 1327.42
28-Nov-19 1457.55 1454.65, 1127.27 1127.35 & 1323.60 1321.84
27-Nov-19 1459.80 1454.35, 1134.12 1129.74 & 1326.23 1322.30
26-Nov-19 1457.65 1454.65, 1133.76 1131.86 & 1322.96 1321.11

Watch Our Latest Video Update Here

SIGN UP FOR OUR AWARD WINNING MARKET UPDATES HERE

Mark O’Byrne

Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Claudio Grass states that negative rates not only destroys our economy but also destroys the value of time

a great read..

(courtesy Claudio Grass)

Claudio Grass: Negative rates destroy the value of time, and civilization is next

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-12-10 19:40. Section: Daily Dispatches

2:40p ET Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Negative interest rates, Swiss monetary metals analyst Claudio Grass writes profoundly today, destroy more than money. They also destroy the value of time itself and presage the destruction of Western civilization.

Grass writes: “The outcome of this policy is that time becomes worthless. As people’s hard-earned money, set aside for a rainy day or for their children’s education, instead of appreciating, as logic would dictate, diminishes day by day, it does not make sense any longer to produce and to save.

“The basic motivation for each individual to get up in the morning and to work hard to achieve a higher living standard is removed, and time, therefore, turns into a dimension without any value.

“If people can’t save any longer, by government decree, then there is no other way than to consume. And with all traditionally safe investment options gone, they are left only with the option of speculating in rigged financial markets and the massive risk that comes with it, especially now, when we’re nearing the end of a long-term debt cycle.”

Grass’ commentary is headlined “The Destruction of Civilization — Implications of Extreme Monetary Interventions” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

https://claudiograss.ch/2019/12/the-destruction-of-civilization-implicat…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Very important: Mnuchin is interviewed and refuses to tell why the repo money has to be given by the Fed to Wal Street, including Hedge funds which are not allowed to receive Fed bail out money

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street Journal)

Pam and Russ Martens: NYTimes ignores new Wall Street bailout

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-12-10 19:48. Section: Daily Dispatches | GATA Tax Returns

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, December 20, 2019

Last Thursday U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was the sole witness called before the House Financial Services Committee to answer questions on the state of financial stability in the U.S. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the U.S. Treasury Secretary also heads the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC) which is charged with monitoring threats to the stability of the U.S. financial system to prevent a replay of the epic financial crash of 2008 and attendant devastation to the U.S. economy.

During the hearing Mnuchin was grilled time and again by numerous Republicans and Democrats on what is necessitating the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to be pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars per week to Wall Street trading houses via the repurchase agreement (repo loan) market.

But instead of reporting on that critical line of questioning and Mnuchin’s lack of meaningful answers, when the New York Times reported on the hearing it focused instead on a tiny aspect of the hearing. Its headline read: “U.S. Objects to World Bank’s Lending Plans for China.” The Times made no mention of the still-unexplained but ongoing repo crisis on Wall Street.

Since the repo lending crisis started on September 17, when major Wall Street banks simply backed away from overnight lending to some financial institutions, forcing loan rates to spike to 10 percent from approximately 2 percent, the Times has written exactly one article on this new financial crisis. Wall Street On Parade has written more than three dozen articles on this critical topic. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/12/congress-held-a-hearing-on-the-fe…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

Holland states that we should load up on debt since since it may be all written off very soon

(Holland/Bloomberg/GATA)

Load up on debt now, since it all may be written off soon

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-12-10 20:35. Section: Daily Dispatches

A 5,000-Year-Old Plan to Erase Debts Is Now a Hot Topic in America

By Ben Holland
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

In ancient Babylon, a newly enthroned king would declare a jubilee, wiping out the population’s debts. In modern America, a faint echo of that idea — call it jubilee-lite — is catching on.

Support for write-offs has been driven by Democratic presidential candidates. Elizabeth Warren says she’d cancel most of the $1.6 trillion in U.S. student loans. Bernie Sanders would go further -– erasing the whole lot, as well as $81 billion in medical debt.

…

But it’s coming from other directions too. In October, one of the Trump administration’s senior student-loan officials resigned, calling for wholesale write-offs and describing the American way of paying for higher education as “nuts.’’

Real-estate firm Zillow cites medical and college liabilities as major hurdles for would-be renters and home buyers. Moody’s Investors Service listed the headwinds from student debt -– less consumption and investment, more inequality — and said forgiveness would boost the economy like a tax cut. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-10/a-5-000-year-old-plan…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

end

Craig Hemke discusses that 2020 will see new QE4 and thus this will be good for gold

(Craig Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: An early look at gold in 2020

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2019-12-11 02:51. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:50p ET Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Looking toward the new year, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing at Sprott Money, foresees much more debt issuance amid a contracting economy, causing central banks to increase their asset purchases and debt monetization. This, Hemke says, will be good for gold prices.

His analysis is headlined “An Early Look for 2020” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/an-early-look-at-2020-craig-hemke-10-12…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

We have provided this to you yesterday but it worth repeating: the main assertion: that even though Gold ETF holdings are surging, the question is do they actually hold any gold? I do not believe that they do hold any gold.

(Stefan Gleason/GATA

Stefan Gleason: Gold ETF holdings surge, but do they actually hold gold?

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2019-12-11 03:36. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38 percent globally in 2019.

In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold exchange-traded funds attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes — at least on paper.

…

There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1-to-1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.

In fact, many of these gold instruments hold futures contracts and other financial derivative products that merely “track” the gold price. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2019/12/10/gold-etf-holdings-surge-0019…

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson reports on the physical demands for gold and silver

(courtesy J Johnson)

The Physical Demands for Au/Ag, Blow Out The Paper!

Posted December 11th, 2019 at 9:32 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

We start the day with a green price for Gold (3 days in a row) with the trade at $1,472.00 up 4 bucks and right there at the high of $1,472.30 with the low at $1,466.90. Silver was giving “the signal” but now has turned to green with the trade at $16.705 up 3/10ths of a penny with the high at $16.745 and the low at $16.650. The US Dollar, under the artificial support from a basket of other nations currencies, is now trading at 97.530, up 14.5 points with the high at 97.575 and the low at 97.530. Of course, all of this was done before 5am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.

In Venezuela, Gold’s price is now trading at 14,701.60 showing an 11.90 Bolivar gain with Silver at 166.841 Bolivar proving a nickel gain in the overnight. In Argentina, the Peso has Gold’s value at 87,948.98 proving a loss of 169.99 Peso’s taking away most of yesterday’s gains with Silver at 998.001 Peso’s dropping 2.409 in A-Peso value as their currency swings higher (for now). Over in the lands of Turkey, Gold is trading at 8,551.59 Lira, confirming a gain of 23.47 in value with Silver at 97.0507 showing a gain of 0.2188 T-Lira’s.

December Silver’s Delivery Demand numbers still do not jive with anything logical, as we reported during yesterday’s missive the increase in count during the day. The end of the day count went to 919 fully paid for contracts waiting for physical with the last Volume count of 188 inside the trading range between $16.610 and $16.555 as the price slowly increased during the day.

Today’s Demand Count for physical now stands at 811 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 10 up on the board so far this morning with a trading range high/low/last at $16.545. So far today, ten contracts traded at the lower numbers yet the seller refuses to take the higher price of $16.600 with a 26-lot order Bid? This seller is trying to drive the prices lower when a normal seller of product, would be taking the higher offers. In my opinion, this physical seller is forcing the prices lower. Yesterday’s activities proved 157 contracts settled out either taking the receipts into delivery at the Comex, or sending the papers over to London, or? It is my belief this seller is not selling real physical but squaring out a trade for the end of the year, playing it out in the delivery system. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is now at 202,913 Overnighters confirming 1,747 more shorts left the field of play and as the prices went higher.

As a reminder, all of this activity is happening just before the Triple Witch Week, the Winter Solstice, the Religious Celebrations of Life, and the New Year. With all the 100’s of billions being printed every week since Sept 17^th, in order to keep liquidity up, when the Velocity of Money is collapsing, we pose the question; where is the money going if it’s not showing up anywhere? Each year’s close has this squaring of positions, yet it seems there are those “very few” who can simply scream they need more money creation or the world will end, and they get it! If I tried to do that to my credit card company or bank, I would be laughed at, and hard! Yet these clowns, who (the media) claim to be the world’s best profiteers, who also have control over everyone else’s credit, do just that, scream at the Fed window, and they get their cash needs printed, every time! In short, these friends of the centrals, have unlimited credit to go against our limited and earned money that is in trade!

All we’ve ever wanted was a fair playing field! If I’m on a Margin Call in the Futures Market, I am required to either put my hard-earned cash into my account to “stay” in the trade, or I have to clear the trade and get off “Call”. Why are the banks offered another way out, getting cash that is freely printed for them, instead of having to clear out their trades to get off Call? This is our point of contention! They are allowed to go to the print window when their trades go awry. This is what we see happening in precious metals now! They are on the “losing money” side of the trade, and yet they can stay on the wrong side as long as they are allowed to go to that free money window to add more paper against the deliveries. This is when the physical demands can blow out the paper!

Fair trade is what the world’s investors want. If they don’t see fair trade, they leave the investment arenas, and buy Silver, Gold, and wait things out till the investment ship gets righted, or sunk. We may be at the point now when we observe the velocity of money, at the same time money is being printed yet is still nowhere to be seen. It is those that hold the physicals, that are prepared for the change of seasons. Enjoy the day, keep that smile on your face no matter what, and please remember, we are all Patriots under One Flag and One Nation, and All Under God! It is this that allows us to …

Stay strong J Johnson

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan

Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com

Amr Alfiky | Reuters

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market

(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

…

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0397/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0383 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 7.10 POINTS OR 0.24%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 208.81 POINTS OR 0.79%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 18.33 POINTS OR 0.08%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

USA dollar index UP TO 97.53/Euro FALLS TO 1.1078

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.71/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.87 and Brent: 63.92

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.22% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.36

3k Gold at $1466.25 silver at: 16.65 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.55

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.71 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9853 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0916 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.82% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.24%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

TURKISH LIRA; 5.8082

“Markets Have Not Priced In Any Bad News”: Futures Frozen As Barage Of Risk Events Looms

US futures are trading flat and European shares fell as the looming China tariff deadline was one day closer and still without resolution, while traders awaited the Fed’s policy announcement today at 2pm. The MSCI world equity index eked out a small gain after Asian shares advanced earlier.

Market sentiment was dented on Tuesday evening and the Yuan slumped after Trump Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said he “got no indication” that the U.S. would postpone new tariffs on Chinese goods that are due to take effect on Dec. 15. Navarro’s comments conflicted with reports from the WSJ and Bloomberg that cited people familiar with the trade talks as saying Chinese officials expect President Donald Trump to delay the hike to allow more time for the reaching of an interim deal.

Amid the last minute verbal brinkmanship, China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, tweeted that “The US’ brinksmanship in using tariffs as leverage to force #China into giving more ground in #tradetalks will not succeed; Instead, it could prompt a new round of tit-for-tat tariff fights, darkening an already pressured global economy and sparking global stock selloff.” However, it failed to impact risk assets.

The White House’s top economic and trade advisers are expected to meet in coming days with Trump over the decision, as the U.S. President now has only days to decide whether to impose tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese goods.

Investors said an initial trade deal was still likely, since it would benefit both Washington and Beijing. “We still believe that the phase-one deal is something that is convenient for both the presidents on the political and economic side,” Alessia Berardi, senior economist at Amundi. “If the tariffs will be implemented it will be a disaster in the short term.”

Amid the uncertainty over trade – the overriding focus for investors through the year – the European Stoxx 600 index fell, then recovered modestly, dragged down by real estate shares, while Asia stocks were mostly higher after White House adviser Peter Navarro said he had no indication that President Donald Trump will do “anything other than have a great deal or put the tariffs on.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by utility companies, as investors looked for signals of a possible initial trade deal between China and the U.S. Markets in the region were mixed, with Hong Kong leading gains and Japan retreating. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan had earlier risen 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 led gains with 0.7% rises. The Topix slid for a second day, dragged down by Keyence and Hitachi. The Shanghai Composite Index closed higher for a fifth day of gains, with large banks and insurers among the biggest boosts. China’s top leadership may set the target for economic growth at about 6% for 2020 as they meet this week for their annual policy conclave. India’s Sensex edged up, supported by Housing Development Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank, as a credit crisis appears to be easing for some borrowers. Indian bonds declined as S&P Global Ratings warned it may lower the nation’s sovereign ratings if economic growth doesn’t recover.

In the Middle East, Saudi Aramco shares surged by a 10% limit above their IPO price in their first day of trading. That gave the extremely illiquid state-controlled oil company a market value of about $1.88 trillion, making it the world’s most valuable listed company.

In addition to trade, investors will be focused on meetings by major central banks starting with the Fed which at its policy meeting later today is widely expected to hold rates steady, with investors watching for changes to its view on the economy and its 2% growth forecast for next year. The Fed’s statement is due at 2pm ET. A surprise when U.S. inflation data are released at 830am would further reduce chances for rate cuts next year.

Then on Thursday, the ECB will hold its first meeting and news conference with Christine Lagarde. “Everything is positioned for the two major central banks to stay accommodative,” Berardi said.

“The markets have become numb to the noise” on trade, Allianz portfolio manager Burns McKinney told Bloomberg TV. “The FOMC meeting, the election in the U.K. and then later this week the December 15 deadline are all factors that I think the markets have generally not priced in any bad news.”

The British pound, a high-flier of late, dropped from a seven-month peak after an opinion poll projected a narrower-than-expected victory for the Conservative party in the British election on Thursday. The election is set to decide how the UK will leave the European Union, if at all. The pound fell as low as $1.3107 after a YouGov poll showed the ruling Conservatives heading towards a slimmer majority than was forecast a fortnight ago. YouGov’s research director said the results showed a hung parliament was possible.

Sterling later recovered some of its losses after dropping 1% from its high on Tuesday, when investors were more confident of a Conservative victory that they expect will end uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EU. It was last trading flat at $1.3151.

Elsewhere, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged higher, rising for the first time in three days, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The krona rose versus all major peers and reached a seven-month high against the euro after Sweden’s November inflation print beat estimates and all but guaranteed that the Riksbank will make history next week, as policy makers look set to end half a decade of negative interest rates. The euro was last down 0.8% against the crown at 10.454, leaving the Swedish currency at its strongest since late April.

The yuan weakened after Navarro said he “got no indication” that the U.S. would postpone new tariffs on Chinese goods that are due to take effect on Dec. 15. The Chinese currency declined as much as 0.17% in the offshore market on Wednesday and weakened up to 0.10% onshore. Stephen Chiu, Asia FX and rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, expects the impact of trade war developments on the yuan to diminish as investors get used to twists and turns around the negotiations. “Even if there is no delay in tariff increase, I don’t think the yuan will rise too much. It should be capped at 7.1 per dollar.”

In commodities, Brent futures fell by 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.82 per barrel by late morning, after industry data showed an unexpected build-up in crude inventories in the United States.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus will clearly be on the aforementioned Fed meeting this evening. There is also important data with the November CPI report due out in the US just after lunch, while the November monthly budget statement is also scheduled for tonight. There is no data of note in Europe today. Elsewhere, OPEC is due to issue its monthly oil market report.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,132.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 404.38
MXAP up 0.3% to 165.50
MXAPJ up 0.6% to 527.88
Nikkei down 0.08% to 23,391.86
Topix down 0.3% to 1,714.95
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 26,645.43
Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,924.42
Sensex up 0.2% to 40,321.80
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,752.64
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,105.62
German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to -0.309%
Euro down 0.05% to $1.1086
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $64.06/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,466.61
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.09% to 97.50
Italian 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 0.897%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.437%

Top Overnight News

While Jerome Powell is expected to reinforce the signal that policy is on hold at the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday, some of his colleagues may be looking ahead to when they should hike again
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn embark on a whistle- stop tour of key districts, after a hotly anticipated opinion poll showed the Conservative Party’s lead has narrowed ahead of Thursday’s U.K. election. The YouGov survey of more than 100,000 voters suggested Johnson would win a majority of 28 seats, down from 68 estimated two weeks earlier
The unprecedented level of calm pervading global currencies is pushing investors to rethink their approach to the FX market. Morgan Stanley Investment Management has pared its foreign-exchange exposure, and Russell Investments Ltd. is focusing on value, and is forsaking major currencies in favor of those from developing economies
Those close to EU chiefs privately acknowledge that a strong Johnson victory on Dec. 12 will mean the U.K.’s long-drawn-out departure from the European Union will finally happen, according to more than half a dozen EU officials speaking on condition of anonymity because the issue is delicate
The Tories will win 339 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, Labour 231, the Scottish National Party 41, and the Liberal Democrats 15, according to a YouGov forecast on Tuesday
Chinese officials expect President Donald Trump to delay a threatened tariff increase set for Sunday, giving more time to negotiate an interim trade deal. However, late Tuesday, White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro said he had no evidence that tariffs set to take effect on Dec. 15 won’t take effect
Bank of Japan officials see a sizable impact from stimulus measures launched by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week, raising the likelihood that the central bank will upgrade its economic forecasts for the first time in a year next month, according to people familiar with the matter
House Democrats embraced the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement after securing key revisions and announced plans to vote on the deal next week, putting Trump closer to a political win as he heads into the 2020 election
New Zealand’s government will increase spending on infrastructure in an effort to boost economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit this year and smaller surpluses thereafter
Oil retreated from its highest close in almost three months after an industry report showed American crude inventories expanded last week, adding to concerns over weakening demand
House Democrats delivered two tightly crafted articles of impeachment against Trump on Tuesday that urged his removal as president for abusing the power of his office and keeping Congress from exercising its duty as a check on the executive branch

A non-committal tone persisted across Asia-Pac equity markets following conflicting US-China tariff reports and as this week’s risk events drew closer beginning with the FOMC meeting due later today. The latest trade headlines have been varied as initial reports suggested that US and Chinese officials are planning for a delay of December 15th tariffs as they negotiate on agricultural purchases, although President Trump was said to remain undecided and both NEC Director Kudlow and White House Trade Advisor Navarro have leaned back from the notion of a tariff postponement. This has resulted to mixed trade for ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (U/C) with Australia lifted by outperformance in the defensive sectors and price action in Tokyo kept to within a tight range as sentiment among large firms deteriorated to a 3-year low, while Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were predominantly indecisive on the differing trade signals, with stronger than expected Chinese financing and lending data doing little to spur upside as participants also contemplated over continued PBoC liquidity inaction and regional growth downgrades from ADB which forecasts growth for the world’s 2nd largest economy to slip below 6% next year. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw a resumption of the recent declines following similar pressure in T-notes, while demand was also subdued by a lack of BoJ buying with the central bank only in the market today for treasury discount bills.

Top Asian News

BOJ Is Said to Expect Sizable Impact From Abe’s Economic Package
China’s Experimental Cancer Cure Offers Hope and Hidden Dangers
Jitters Over China’s Local Defaults Start to Spread Offshore
Investors Seen Flocking to TSMC Over Samsung for Reliable Payout

A choppy session for European equities thus far [Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%] following on from a lacklustre APAC session heading into key macro risk events. Broad-based losses are seen across the board, albeit the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is largely moving in tandem with the Pound ahead of tomorrow’s UK general election and after the latest MRP polling from YouGov. Sectors are mixed with Utilities propped up in part by Germany’s E.ON (+1.6%) and RWE (+0.7%) amid source reports that Germany will allow the companies to keep their existing carbon emissions certificates due to coal unit shutdowns. That said, the sector’s defensive nature could also be providing some support. Meanwhile, the IT sector is underperforms, potentially on trade jitters amid conflicting reports and rhetoric from both the US and China sides. In terms of individual movers – JD Sports Fashion (-8.7%) shares tumbled at the open after its top shareholder cut its stake in the company but retained his position as major shareholder. Credit Suisse (-0.5%) remains modestly pressured after it revised down its 2020 ROTE guidance to around 10% vs. Prev. 10-11%. On the flipside, Tullow Oil (+5.6%) continues to nurse its wounds following its recent 70% slump, whilst Inditex (+2.7%) is buoyed post-earnings, which showed an YY gains in net profit, net sales, EBITDA and gross profits.

Top European News

BVB Shares Jump, Ajax Tanks Following Champions League Drama
As Just Eat Battle Rages On, Prosus Wins Amsterdam Sideshow
Swedish Inflation Data ‘Cements’ Bets That Rate Hike Is Coming
Europe Readies World’s Cleanest Revamp of Economy in Green Deal

In FX, Not quite polar opposites, but contrasting fortunes for the Swedish Krona and Sterling in wake of inflation data and the final pre-UK election poll from YouGov, as the former eclipsed market expectations and matched Riksbank forecasts to effectively seal a repo rate hike next week. However, the MRP survey implies a much tighter result this Thursday than the previous findings, with a projected Tory majority of 28 seats vs 68 seats around the end of November and even that prediction subject to the usual margins of error. In response, Eur/Sek has recoiled sharply to test 10.4500 support vs highs close to 10.5400 and 10.5800+ on Tuesday, while Cable has pulled back from just over 1.3200 to circa 1.3140 after probing bids ahead of 1.3100 and Eur/Gbp bounced through 0.8450 at one stage before fading.

AUD/NZD – A similar story down under where the tables have turned somewhat on the back of a reversal in cross flows following the latest NZ Half Year Fiscal update revealing a bigger cash balance shortfall and fresh Nzd12 bn budget allocation for infrastructure. Nzd/Usd has lost momentum after a knee-jerk rally to around 0.6555 and Aud/Nzd rebounded from sub-1.0400 towards 1.0450 to help Aud/Usd maintain 0.6800+ status even though RBC joined the chorus for more RBA easing and QE.
JPY/CAD/CHF/EUR – All narrowly mixed against the Greenback as the DXY continues to straddle the 97.500 level in relatively muted/nervy trade awaiting the FOMC, with the Yen meandering between 108.67-84 parameters, Loonie trapped in a 1.3227-39 range and Franc pivoting 0.9850. Elsewhere, the Euro is still looking heavy or toppy into 1.1100 and perhaps conscious that a hefty 1.6 bn option expiries reside from the big figure to 1.1110, not to mention the fact that tomorrow is ECB (and SNB) day.
EM – Divergence also a theme in terms of Rand outperformance compared to Lira underperformance, as Usd/Zar pares back from almost 14.8200 in wake of in line/softer than previous SA CPI on less Eskom load-shedding before attention turns to retail sales data, but Usd/Try hovers around 5.8000 due to renewed US-Turkey sanctions and diplomatic tension rather than a slightely narrower than anticipated current account surplus.

In commodities, mixed trade in the commodities complex with WTI and Brent futures retreating from 12-week highs following last night’s weekly API figures – with crude headline printing a surprise build of 1.41mln barrels vs. expected draw of 2.8mln. Further, the internals came in mostly bearish with distillates and gasoline showing higher-than-forecast builds whilst Cushing printed a deeper-than-expected draw. Traders will be waiting for confirmation from the EIA later today. Meanwhile OPEC’s monthly report (to be released at 13:00GMT) may garner some attention given the EIA STEO left its global oil demand forecast unchanged and included a downward revision to their 2020 US oil supply growth forecast. ING is not surprised by the downward revision given the slowdown seen in US rig activity. In terms of a more macro picture, crude markets will be vulnerable to any US-China headlines amid the contradicting reports regarding tariffs due to be implemented this Sunday. Aside from that, the FOMC’s latest monetary policy decision later could provide the complex with some sentiment-driven action. Today also marked the first trading session for Saudi Aramco, whose shares opened at SAR 35.2 vs. and IPO price of SAR 32.0, hitting limit up after rising 10% and surpassing its earlier valuation of USD 1.7tln. Looking at metals, spot gold prices remain supported ahead of the aforementioned events, with the yellow metal surpassing its 21DMA (USD 1465.50/oz) with eyes on yesterday’s high at USD 1469.15/oz. Copper prices continue to rise and have topped 2.75/lb with its 100 DMA residing around 2.8060/lb. Finally, nickel prices came under pressure in early APAC trade after inventories spiked 21% YY, the largest increase since 2008, but despite this the metal reversed course with the only pertinent news being Indonesia doubling royalties for the ore to 10% – making it more expensive for buyers, thus some front-loading effects may have been priced in.

US Event Calendar

7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -9.2%
8:30am: US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%; CPI YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 1.8%;
8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.95%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.2%
2pm: FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 1.75%, prior 1.75%
2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $206.2b deficit, prior $100.5b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are focused on navigating the last couple of weeks of 2019 for now with the next hurdle being the FOMC meeting tonight although in fairness it’s probably hard to get too excited given that the Fed is firmly on hold for now with the recent data helping to underscore that position. Markets have priced that in and the view from our economists is that the meeting statement should largely mirror the communique from the last meeting.

We will also get the latest summary of economic projections although our colleagues also expect only very modest changes, most notably downgrades to the median views on inflation and long-run unemployment. The dot plots should also adjust 25bps lower to account for the rate cut in October and still show an upward drift over time to a neutral level that is somewhat lower. That leaves Powell’s press conference which our team believe will echo recent remarks, which indicate that the Committee sees policy in a good place barring a “material reassessment” to the outlook. In this context, the team expect the Chair’s comments to reflect his implicit message from October that, while the bar to cutting rates is high, the bar for hiking is even higher.

A reminder that the meeting outcome will be at 7pm GMT/2pm EST, while prior to that we’re also expecting the November CPI report in the US where the consensus expects a +0.2% mom core reading. Back to markets where the main story yesterday was the WSJ reporting that US and China negotiators are planning for a delay of tariffs due to kick in from this Sunday. In fairness this did appear to be what markets had expected even if there were one or two doubts in recent weeks with the story also suggesting that Chinese and US officials “don’t have a hard deadline”. However to add some confusion to the picture, the White House’s Kudlow said later on that the December 15th tariffs are “still on the table” and overnight Commerce Secretary Ross has said that he has “no indication” that the President will do anything other than “have a great deal or put the tariffs on”.

The mixed messages resulted in a bit of a directionless session for US equities with the S&P 500 ebbing between gains and losses before ultimately finishing -0.11% on lower than average volumes. The NASDAQ and DOW closed -0.07% and -0.10% respectively while the VIX ended just below 16. Prior to this in Europe the STOXX 600 had closed -0.26% albeit off the lows for the session. Bond markets weren’t much more exciting with 10y Treasury yields up +2.3bps and yields in Europe up a similar amount. The exception were BTPs which ended -3.4bps lower.

The picture isn’t a whole lot clearer in Asia this morning. We’ve seen small gains for the Hang Seng (+0.33%) and Kospi (+0.34%) offset by a mixed performance for bourses in China (Shanghai Comp +0.12%), CSI 300 -0.04%) and a small loss for the Nikkei (-0.18%) We should note that after we went to print yesterday November credit data in China was broadly better than expected which combined with the recent bounce in PMIs should be supportive for the growth narrative.

Also out last night was the last YouGov MRP survey with the results showing the Conservatives to win 339 seats and therefore giving a majority of 28 seats, versus 231 for Labour. The previous iteration of the poll showed the Conservatives with a lead of 68 seats so the forecasted lead has been cut in half which makes things a little more interesting ahead of the vote tomorrow. Sterling dropped as much as -0.81% after the poll was released although has recovered slightly as we go to print to trade at $1.314.

The other news yesterday was mostly political. As expected the US, Canada and Mexico all agreed to sign the USMCA with House Ways and Means Panel Chairman Neal saying that it is likely that the pact will be voted on next week. Meanwhile in the US the Democrats announced two articles of impeachment against President Trump on abuse of power and obstruction. Both of those developments caused barely a ripple in markets.

As far as the data was concerned yesterday, the highlight in Europe was an improving ZEW survey in Germany. Indeed the December current situation component improved 4.8pts to -19.9 which bettered expectations for -22.0. That matches the September level while the expectations component improved a more notable 12.8pts to +10.7 (vs. +0.3 expected) which puts it back at the highest level since February 2018.

The hard data was a bit more mixed though with October industrial production surprising to the upside in France (+0.4% mom vs. +0.2% expected) but to the downside in Italy (-0.3% mom vs. -0.2% expected). In the UK the data also disappointed (+0.1% mom vs. +0.2% expected) while the October monthly GDP print of 0.0% was also weaker than expected (+0.1% mom expected). Adding to the pain for the UK was the much wider than expected trade deficit, albeit likely impacted by stockpiling.

Finally in the US the final Q3 readings for nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs were both revised down, to -0.2% qoq (from -0.1%) and +2.5% qoq (from +3.4%) respectively. The latter had been sending a firmer inflation message ahead so the downward revision falls closer in line with more muted inflation indicators from other leading indicators.

Finally to the day ahead, where the focus will clearly be on the aforementioned Fed meeting this evening. There is also important data with the November CPI report due out in the US just after lunch, while the November monthly budget statement is also scheduled for tonight. There is no data of note in Europe today. Elsewhere, OPEC is due to issue its monthly oil market report.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.10 POINTS OR 0.24% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 208.81 POINTS OR 0.79% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 18.33 POINTS OR 0.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .60%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

The yuan tumbles after Navarro warns that trump has not been any indiation that tariffs will be delayed

(zerohedge)

Yuan Tumbles After Navarro Warns “No Indication That Tariffs Will Be Delayed”

While US equity futures have barely dipped, offshore yuan has tumbled – erasing the earlier optimistic spike – after White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro told Fox News that he has “no indication that December tariffs will not be put on.”

Additionally Navarro said that China “was trying to shape the narrative on trade talks to affect the futures market,” and that is up to the Chinese if a trade deal can get done.

Yuan erased all of the gains from China’s comments this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Yuan plunged, Dow futs dropped only 30 points (for now)…

end

We continue to see poor results out of China and even these are fudged. Today an unprecedented China auto collapse as it is now heading into its third year: November had a huge 4.2% drop

(zerohedge)

“Unprecedented” China Auto Market Collapse Heads Into Third Year After November Sales Drop 4.2%

The ongoing recession in the global auto market has undoubtedly been lead by China – and if November’s trends are any indication, the entire industry could be setting up for an ugly 2020.

Sales of sedans in China fell 4.2% in November to 1.97 million units, according to the CPCA on Monday.

This marks the 17th decline in the last 18 months and all but ensures that China will see a second straight annual drop for its auto market, according to Bloomberg.

Last year was the first time the market shrunk in decades, with ripple effects extending to places like Europe, Latin America and the rest of Asia. The industry has faced headwinds in the ongoing trade war, in addition to an overstretched consumer and ride-hailing and car-sharing services.

Areas outside of China’s big cities suffered the most, as a slowing economy kept consumers out of the showrooms that sold cheaper local brands. Experts are predicting consolidation in the industry as a result. Some brands, like Suzuki and PSA Group, have pulled out of China (or are in the process of selling stakes).

Bigger names like Toyota and BMW have weathered the storm well due to demand for hybrid cars – but this demand is anything but a guarantee moving forward.

EVs were once a reason for optimism, especially with Volkswagen spending $4.4 billion next year to ramp up EV production in the country and Tesla moving a new plant to Shanghai.

But last month, wholesales of NEVs fell a stunning 42% to 79,000 units.

Recall, as we reported days ago, it’s looking like Beijing isn’t so excited to help sustain the EV niche of the market anymore.

We also noted that Beijing’s ambivalence was starting to show up in the numbers. EV sales fell off a cliff after June of this year, when the government slashed purchase subsidies. From July to October, sales of new energy cars were down 28% from the year prior.

Subsidies are unlikely to come back, we noted. The government is now aiming for “quality instead of just quantity”, noting that subsidies would be more costly than they were a few years ago, when the market was smaller. Instead, Beijing said it will spend the money on building out its infrastructure, like its charging stations.

A Bloomberg NEF report predicts that the EV market will rebound next year, however, stating: “Potential cuts to subsidies at the beginning of 2020 are keeping the industry in limbo. A shrinking market could force the government to give up its plans on cuts.”

end

China still claims it does not need uSA Pork or Soybeans as they scour the planet for other sources

(zerohedge)

As Prices Skyrocket, China Claims It Doesn’t Need US Pork To Ensure Domestic Supply

The Global Times is out with a new opinion piece on Tuesday morning, stating how China will expand its pork imports with Brazil rather than the US.

We’ve been covering this trend for the last several months, while the Trump administration continued to promote headlines indicating China was buying massive amounts of agriculture products from the US, including pork and soybeans. But as we noted, this wasn’t the case, and China abandoned US markets for Brazil.

In early Nov., China signed the first-ever trade deal with Brazil to start receiving shipments of swine offal, or organ meats (hearts, tongues, stomachs, and entrails).

BS SA and BRF SA are the Brazilian meat companies that will start sending pig byproducts to China.

As we’ve noted in the past, the US has likely lost its label as the top producer in supplying China with agriculture products because of the trade war, which has led to a decoupling of both economies and forced China to head to South America for new sourcing channels.

China’s “pig Ebola” wiped out about half of the country’s breeding pig population so far this year, forcing pork spot prices to hyperinflate, which resulted in the consumer price index jumping 4.5% Y/Y in Nov., well above the 4.2% consensus expectation, and the highest annual increase since 2001.

The pig shortage sent the country’s food inflation rate to a record +19.1% in November from +15.5% in October, primarily on higher inflation in fresh vegetable and pork prices.

To prevent further socio-economic unraveling spurred by soaring food inflation, China had to act quick, and that’s why they’ve started sourcing pigs from Brazil to fill the gap in the pork deficit.

In other reports, we noted that China typically sources most of its soybeans from the US between October and January, though that wasn’t the case this year.

Earlier this week, we produced a map showing all dry bulk, general cargo, and other dry vessels carrying agriculture products (fertilizers, grains, oil/oilseeds, meals/feeds/pulses, softs, and other agriculture products) across the world.

Several significant trends were spotted on the map. The first is how a massive flow of vessels are moving back and forth from Brazilian and Argentinean ports to Europe and China. The second observation is the muted activity on either coast of the US.

And maybe there’s some validity to the Global Times opinion piece since it appears China has gone elsewhere for its agriculture needs.

Still, if there were crop failures or any livestock disease outbreaks in South America, China would have to renter US markets for pigs and soybean.

end

CHINA/USA

Late this afternoon, Peter Navarro now highlights case for more Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

Peter Navarro Highlights Case For More China Tariffs In Memo

White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro, under the secret pen name of Ron Vara, emailed a memo around Washington, making a case for more tariffs on China to continue forcing structural change in their economy, reported The New York Times.

“Much debate going on,” Ron Vara wrote, referring to the current debate within the Trump administration whether to reduce tariffs or to go ahead with the next round on Dec. 15. “Here’s one side that has not been in focus. Thoughts?”

The Times explained Ron Vara is a fictional character that Navarro created so that he could anonymously voice his trade opinion and influence the trade debate.

Navarro was uncovered as Ron Vara in Oct. by an Australian scholar.

The Times said Navarro had verified the authenticity of the memo:

“On a daily basis, I speak to, or correspond with, people that I respect, and don’t necessarily agree with, to receive their thoughts on issues critical to American workers and the American people,” Navarro said. “This kind of active dialogue makes for the best possible decisions.”

He added: “Such a free exchange of ideas is essential to the success of an administration that is simultaneously putting up the best economic numbers in a half-century and achieving success after success on the trade front.” He described a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico that is on track to become law as “just the latest big win.”

The memo says that the Trump administration should continue forcing significant structural changes in China’s economy through waging a tariff war.

It also accuses China of ditching American farmers, something we’ve outlined several times in the last two weeks.

The memo states that President Trump’s tariffs are protecting the economy and have had limited negative impacts on economic growth or the stock market.

It says that Trump could calm uncertainties by publicly stepping away from a deal: “Get uncertainty out of the market by announcing NO deal until after the election and ride the tariffs to victory.”

In the last week, there have been mixed signals from some White House officials, who are in support of increasing tariffs, and others who want to see a rollback.

On Tuesday night, Navarro told Fox News that he has “no indication that December tariffs will not be put on.”

Additionally, Navarro said that China “was trying to shape the narrative on trade talks to affect the futures market,” and that is up to the Chinese if a trade deal can get done.

If President Trump listens to Navarro and the trade hawks, it seems that tariffs could be coming online on Dec. 15 or at least no trade deal until after the election.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The pound goes on a roller coaster ride with the report that although the conservatives have a strong lead that might dissipate if the turn out is low.

(zerohedge)

Pound Rollercoaster After Last Poll Suggests Hung Parliament Remains Likely

Tomorrow, British voters will head to the polls to cast their ballots in a federal election that will decide the fate of Brexit. According to the latest poll, a strong lead held by the Conservative Party – the party of prime minister Boris Johnson – has started to dissipate, underscoring the notion that turnout is going to be critical for this election.

And the last YouGov poll before the election happens confirmed that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives still have a strong lead, but it didn’t rule out the possibility of a hung parliament.

According to the FT, a comprehensive survey by the pollsters at YouGov found that the Tories are set to win 339 seats on Thursday, with Labour set for 231, and the Liberal Democrats for 15 and the Scottish National party for 41. According to the FT’s analysis of the polls, the latest poll showed that his majority had shrunk to just 28, down from 68 in earlier polls.

The model predicts that seats in the north of England, including Bishop Auckland, Great Grimsby, Don Valley and Ashfield, parts of Labour’s infamous “red wall,” could turn blue for the first time in history. Meanwhile, in London, the Conservatives are expected to hold on to seats such as Putney and Wimbledon in south London.

As if the possibility of losing the heartland isn’t enough of a referendum on Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership abilities (his far-left agenda calls for a serious reshaping of the British economy), Labour is also trailing in the typical marginal seats that the party would need to win to secure a majority. These include several constituencies currently held by Labour, including Lincoln, Crewe and Nantwich, which are forecast to flip.

Contrary to what one might expect, the conservative leadership will probably welcome the poll showing a drop in Johnson’s margin of victory, since they’re afraid of everyone getting complacent.

“We have to keep everyone focused on the prize, we can’t afford to give up now,” said one cabinet minister.

Because the poll, as we mentioned earlier, still leaves open the possibility of a hung parliament.

In a hung parliament, the largest party fails to form a coalition with its rival parties, leaving the UK without a functioning government. If the impasse can’t be broken, the British people could be asked to return to the polls for another vote.

Bloomberg has compiled forecasts for how various election scenarios, including the hung parliament, might impact the pound.

Source: Bloomberg

In response to the poll, the pound weakened to $1.3107, according to Reuters, before rebounding.

Johnson advisor Dominic Cummings warned Brexit activists not to be complacent. “The polls might say Boris is going to win, but don’t believe them,” he wrote Wednesday evening in a blog post.

As we’ve pointed out before, there is precedent for that.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

(zerohedge)

Turkey Threatens To Revoke US Nuclear Base In Incirlik After Sanctions Bill Advances To Senate Floor

On Wednesday morning the GOP-led Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to advance Turkey sanctions legislation on an 18-4 vote, despite strong objections from the Trump administration. Senators Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Ted Cruz, and Tom Udall vote against it.

At the same time, Ankara has threatened to take back US military bases at Incirlik and Kurecik in Turkey, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has announced, saying it would “reevaluate” their status.

Sanctions legislation had been stalled by the Republican majority Senate, with the Rand Paul leading the charge against the bill, in order to give Trump more time to make a deal with Turkey over its controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-air defense system.

*Turkey’s Incirlik airbase, via Reuters.*

The House had passed its own sanctions legislation in October following Erdogan’s ordered military incursion into northern Syria targeting US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.

The bipartisan bill sponsored by Republican Chairman Jim Risch and ranking Democrat Robert Menendez along with 16 other senators.

“I was willing to let the people talk,” Risch told reporters last week, “Very shortly thereafter it changed, and it has gotten worse instead of better.” Risch added of the next vote: “I suspect that bill’s gonna pass 98-2 on the floor.”

The measures will including not only sanctions over the S-400 acquirement, but will target specific Turkish officials and institutions as well, including a ban on arms sales tied to operations in Syria.

Just ahead of the vote, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu promised “retaliation” if it passes, which apparently now includes the serious potential escalation of booting US personnel from vital Turkish military bases.

Turkey said on Wednesday it would retaliate against any US sanctions over its purchase of Russian defense systems, adding that with Britain it had agreed to speed up a joint fighter jet program to meet Turkish defense needs. — Al Arabiya

Clearly more cracks in NATO now that its two largest militaries will be divided by sanctions.

“U.S. lawmakers must understand they will get nowhere with impositions. If the United States approaches us positively, we will also react positively. But, if they take negative towards us, then we will retaliate these,” Cavusoglu said previously.

end

6.Global Issues

Mish Shedlock describes the new NAFTA 2 and to him it is really a nothingburger.

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly In NAFTA 2.0

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Democrats agree to pass USMCA, Trump’s NAFTA replacement.

Goodbye NAFTA, Hello USMCA

In what “seemingly” constitutes a major victory for Trump, Democratic Lawmakers Agree to Support North America Trade Pact.

House Democrats agreed to support the new U.S. trade deal with Mexico and Canada, marking a victory for President Trump who ran for office in 2016 on a pledge to remake or blow up the North American Free Trade Agreement.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the new version of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement a “victory for American workers” at a Tuesday morning news conference. The pact will replace Nafta when ratified and contains provisions aimed at creating more manufacturing jobs, for example, by increasing the proportion of vehicles that must originate in North America for the cars and trucks to receive duty-free treatment.

It also includes updated labor rules and beefed-up enforcement provisions to hold firms in Mexico to account on labor, according to people familiar with the emerging deal.

USMCA had long been supported by Republicans and leading business trade groups but opposed by Democrats over concerns such as the legal language enforcing new labor rules. The Democratic approval Monday comes as a rare bipartisan moment of cooperation on economic policy at a time when Capitol Hill is divided over the impeachment inquiry.

USMCA Key Provisions

Mexican Labor: U.S. labor unions and Democrats have long complained that Mexican workers can’t always form unions freely and demand fair pay, a situation they say puts pressure on U.S. manufacturing jobs. The Trump administration’s USMCA has new additional labor rules, not included in the current Nafta, as well as new enforcement procedures demanded by Democrats.
Auto Rules: Compared with Nafta, USMCA significantly tightens the rules that the auto industry has to follow in order to trade vehicles duty free in North America. A certain proportion of a car will have to be produced by workers with higher wages, and a greater proportion of components will have to originate in North America.
Digital Freedom: USMCA, unlike the current Nafta, includes rules mandating the free flow of data among the three countries. This and other novel provisions on exchange rates and other areas aren’t so crucial for Canada and Mexico but could later be applied to pacts with more restrictive countries or even China.
Agriculture: A deal to pass USMCA means farmers of major crops no longer have to worry about President Trump potentially pulling out of the existing Nafta and leaving them fewer major export markets. USMCA also gives dairy farmers more access to Canada.
Pharma: Big drugmakers are likely to be disappointed, since Democrats pushed the Trump administration to remove language that would have protected expensive biologic drugs from generic imitators for 10 years. The existing Nafta treaty has no such drug protections.

Point by Point Comments

1: Pelosi wanted more, and settled for less. Five days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported Democrats Want to Invade Mexico. Essentially, the unions demanded that the US be allowed to enforce labor laws in Mexico. However, Mexico would not agree. Canada would not have gone alone either.

2: The devil is in the details. I suspect Mexico will be able to circumvent these rules, if it wants.

3: Digital rules accomplish nothing.

4: Agriculture essentially remains the status quo. Wisconsin dairy farmers do get a minor victory.

5: This is a potential victory for US consumers, but one that Trump did not appear to want. In practice, however, I wonder if it does much.

AFL-CIO President Rich Trumka Tweets

Dramatically Worse

Nearly anything the AFL-CIO supports is, by definition, bad for US consumers.

Thus, if this deal really is a “dramatic improvement”, I propose it is dramatically worse.

The one place Trumka is correct, most likely by accident, is on Big Pharma.

Trump on USMCA

Devil in the Details

What this comes down to is how easily Mexico can get around key provisions 1 and 2.

The more Mexico adheres to those points, the worse the deal Trump negotiated.

Good for Unions, Bad for Consumers

If it’s Good for Unions, It’s Bad for Consumers.

I wrote about that construct a couple days ago in France Should Take a Lesson From Ronald Reagan: Fire the Strikers.

Even FDR understood that public unions and public service were impossibly incompatible.

Click on the link for discussion.

Proud Union Hater

Unions promote on seniority, not talent. Anyone who wants to get ahead based on performance, not seniority, should not be a union supporter.

Moreover, corrupt union leaders get into bed with corrupt politicians. The combination is the biggest vote-buying racket in the world.

This puts the public at the mercy of militant teachers’ unions, police unions, and firefighter unions all demanding and receiving untenable pension promises.

GM and Ford

GM’s bonds, despite a bailout (necessary because giving into union demands bankrupted the company) are just a step above Junk.

So are Ford bond.

The strike is over. Hooray. But GM has a second date with bankruptcy court. Ford will have a first.

Pensions

Meanwhile, please note that Illinois pensions are among the worst funded in the entire nation. Things are even worse in Chicago where Each Chicagoan Owes $140,000 to Bail Out Chicago Pensions.

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s only solution is the same as that of predecessor Rahm Emmanuel: Raise Taxes.

Get The Hell Out Now

These facts, and they keep piling up, is what prompted me to write on October 4, Escape Illinois: Get The Hell Out Now, We Are

Also consider Chicago Headed for Insolvency, Get the Hell Out Now.

In 2020 we are moving to Utah. We have had enough.

Trump Irony

Trump is bragging about USMCA. And most Trump supporters will see it that way.

But at best, the deal represents no significant changes.

Importantly, the more the AFL-CIO and Pelosi are right, the worse Trump’s deal is in practice.

end

WTO/USA

Trump shuts down the WTO appeals court as it sends the EU and China scrambling. Trump does not like the verdicts imposed by the court

(zerohedge)

Trump Shuts Down WTO Appeals Court, Sending EU, China Scrambling For ‘Plan B’

Axios certainly has the best intro to today’s bombshell development: “Internationalists have always dreamed of a court with jurisdiction over all the countries of the world. In 1995, the World Trade Organization was created — allowing the world’s countries to press claims against one another for the first time.”

But it won’t survive the Trump presidency as on Tuesday his administration has effectively brought it to an end, neutering its ability to intervene in trade wars, having blocked all new appointments to its dispute-resolution court.

Starting two years ago the US administration began blocking appointments, and now Trump has run out the clock as the now paralyzed WTO’s Appellate Body over that period declined from seven judges to three, and with two more terms expiring Tuesday, only one judge remains, thus without the ability to issue a binding ruling.

Also per Axios:

Donald “Tariff Man” Trump (his words) can now impose whatever tariffs he likes, without fear that the WTO might find them to be illegal.

However, there’s widespread perception that the WTO has been rendered obsolete until it undertakes major reforms — for example criticisms that it frequently fails to abide by its own rules, has an inconsistent appeals mechanism, and its rules fail to account for state-controlled enterprises.

Viewed as among the foremost hindrances to Trump’s “America First” program, he’s already long bulldozed past WTO rules amid the trade war with China, including punitive levies on Chinese goods (and another tariff increase set for this upcoming weekend), and imposing metal tariffs on allies like Europe, Canada and Japan.

Via the Peterson Institute for International Economics: The World Trade Organization (WTO) resolves trade disputes through its dispute settlement process, a system that the United States helped design to ensure all countries follow negotiated trading rules. Since 1995, a total of 575 cases have been brought to the WTO, and the United States has been either a complainant or respondent in 275 of them.

* * *

And now the question of China and “a very unfortunate Plan B” initiative, as described in Bloomberg:

China is in preliminary talks to support the European Union’s backup plan for settling international trade disputes as President Donald Trump’s administration gets closer to scuttling the World Trade Organization’s role in refereeing cross-border commerce.

On Tuesday, China’s Ambassador to the WTO Zhang Xiangchen told Bloomberg News that Beijing is actively working to support the EU’s vision of an appeal-arbitration model, which essentially replicates the work of the WTO’s soon-to-be defunct appellate body.

So far such a Europe-based alternative has drawn interest from current WTO members Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Japan and Turkey, as noted in the report.

Data for year 2018. You will find more infographics at Statista

Meanwhile, internationalists fear a return to the law of the jungle:

“The WTO is facing its deepest crisis since its creation,” Phil Hogan, the European trade commissioner, told members of the European Parliament this year. If the rules governing international trade can no longer be enforced, “we’d have the law of the jungle.”

And one former appellate body member James Bacchus, told Bloomberg: “There has been a gradual support for this as a very unfortunate Plan B.”

He concluded, “Now it seems to be the best option, given all the lousy options we have left.”

7. OIL ISSUES

Aramco stock goes limit up in its debut due to the fact that the Saudi leadership forced locals to buy this crap

(zerohedge)

Aramco Stock Soars Limit Up In Debut After Saudis Force Locals To Buy

Is Jamie Dimon about to get the old bonesaw for leaving $180BN on the table?

Saudi Arabia’s oil company Aramco soared 10% limit up on its first day of trading, reaching a valuation of $1.88 trillion, higher than any other publicly traded company in the world. This means that after pricing its IPO at $1.7 trillion, Jamie Dimon left about $180 billion on the table, which will hardly impress the Crown Prince.

The record valuation reflects an oversubscribed book of mostly local investors who bought shares on the Saudi Tadawul stock exchange after they were forced by Riyadh to pump the stock.

Aramco only sold a tiny 1.5% sliver in the company, meaning that the kingdom and Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) could easily manipulate the price with such a small fraction of the stock public. Aramco listed on the Tadawul exchange because of other international exchanges and their investors found it hard to value the oil company near the $2 trillion levels.

“They have had to launch the IPO on their own stock exchange as the valuation was unlikely to be achieved elsewhere,” said John Colley, associate dean at Warwick Business School in the U.K, who spoke with Reuters.

Colley said the IPO pump is likely buyers affiliated with the kingdom. Aramco sold .50% of its shares to individual retail investors, many of whom were Saudi nationals, financially incentivized by the kingdom. The remaining 1% were domestic institutional investors and other financial institutions from surrounding countries.

Reuters noted that Aramco would be offering a dividend of at least $75 billion in 2020 to entice investors to hold. Also, investors who hold for more than six months could be rewarded with up to 100 bonus shares.

Saudi Arabia’s central bank doubled leverage for retail investors ahead of the IPO.

State investment funds, like Public Pension Agency and PIF’s Sanabil Investments unit, are among domestic institutions who were buying shares in the open market, reported Financial Times, adding that wealthy Saudi families were ordered by the kingdom to purchase stock.

As the FT reported ahead of the IPO, Saudi Arabia was “persuading” local institutions and wealthy families to buy shares in Saudi Aramco after its initial public offering, as part of a plan to drive up the stock price: the focus was to reach company’s $2t targeted valuation, and as of this morning, the company is more than halfway there from $1.7 trillion.

Families have been asked to pledge further funds, one unidentified adviser to families say

State investment funds were also “encouraged” to buy shares.

Public Pension Agency, the Public Investment Fund and the PIF’s Sanabil Investments unit are among institutions likely to be called on to support the shares once they are trading, FT reports

Aramco declined to comment; PPA did not respond to FT’s requests for comment, PIF denied it would intervene to support the price although clearly that’s precisely what it was doing this morning.

The result of this massive pump spurred by the kingdom, which sent shares soaring by the 10% limit on opening day, was Mohamed bin Salman’s attempt to catapult Aramco’s valuation over the $2 trillion level.

“Aramco should easily get to the $2 trillion valuation as soon as tomorrow; there is plenty of appetite for it,” Marie Salem, the head of institutions at Daman Securities in Dubai, told Bloomberg.

The Aramco IPO proceeds ($25.6 billion) will be used by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to fund his Vision 2030 initiative and transform the Saudi economy away from oil and gas.

As MbS and Aramco can claim fame to the world’s largest IPO, there was very little participation from foreign institutions, hence why the kingdom incentivized domestic funds and citizens to buy the stock on the day of the IPO.

Monica Malik, the chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Reuters while Ice Brent Crude futures trade around $63-$64, the kingdom needs about $87 per barrel to balance its budget.

And one day before the IPO, the finance minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammed al-Jadaan told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that he rejected claims that the kingdom is running out of money.

“No we are not running out of money,” al-Jadaan said.

Last month, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) David Petraeus told CNBC that he believed Saudi Arabia is “gradually running out of money,” which could explain why Aramco was rushed to IPO.

Sustainability of the Aramco IPO is questionable considering international participation is weak, and the kingdom not only forced domestic buyers to load up as much as they could but also were told to use leverage.

Macroeconomic headwinds of a slowing global economy, dropping Chinese demand and declining fuel consumption across the world could put down pressure on oil prices heading into the new year, but none of that matters because the kingdom has orchestrated one of the most significant one day stock pumps the country or maybe the world has ever seen.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL

Meat prices spike by % in Brazil. This is deadly to Brazil as cattle is their bread and butter and key to their exports

(zerohedge)

Meat Prices Spike 8% In Brazil, Threatening A Holiday-Gathering Mainstay For Many

Consumers in Brazil are facing a crisis: barbeques, which are a mainstay of Brazilian cuisine and have inspired countless Brazilian steakhouses, are under threat.

The price of beef, pork and chicken in the country are experiencing a sharp rise, even while inflation elsewhere in the country remains low, according to Bloomberg. The meats are up 8.1% month over month in November, threatening to take the main course off the table at many Brazilian celebrations this upcoming holiday season.

Renata Ziller, a teacher and mother of three in Brasilia, said:

“We’ll have to do something with rice, I guess. I’ll have to use some creativity because the prices are so high.”

The price rise has been a result of increased demand for Brazilian meat from China, in addition a drought impacting the quality of many cattle pastures. The price rise has political and economic implications, Bloomberg writes.

Meat was invoked by leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who said he would fight for the rights of Brazilian workers to “hold family gatherings, have a barbecue, and drink a little beer, which is what makes us happy.”

President Jair Bolsonaro also commented on the price hikes: “People are complaining, rightly, that the price of meat has gone up. The world has started to buy more meat from us. Unfortunately that’s what happens.”

Bolsonaro supports the free market, and said there was little he could do about the price spike – a refreshing take from a politician.

The price of a chicken in the country was up 8% year over year while pork rose 15% and a filet mignon has risen by about 20%. Meat had the largest impact of all products on the country’s inflation numbers for November.

Rafael Cortez, from the consultancy Tendencias Consultoria, said: “Inflation in general ought to be a positive factor for the government, however this current rise in a product that is so dear to the average Brazilian could favor the opposition narrative. We are already starting to see this on social media.”

Geovana Santos, a 20-year-old trash collector with a one-year old daughter, said the price spikes have caused her to change her diet:

“Basically I just have to buy sausage, because it’s cheaper,” she concluded.

Eventually, as prices rise, less Brazilians like Santos will eat meat and demand will hopefully taper, causing prices to again slide lower. With free market concepts like these so simple intuitive and effective, it’s no wonder Central Banks can’t appreciate them.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1078 DOWN .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.71 DOWN 0.058 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3150 UP 0.0022 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO JAN 31/2020//

USA/CAN 1.3237 UP .0002 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.10 POINTS OR 0.24%

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 208.81 POINTS OR 0.79%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,60%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 208.81 POINTS OR 0.79%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.10 POINTS OR 0.24%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 60%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 18.33 POINTS OR 0.08%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1466.25

silver:$16.65-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.82% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.24 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.16 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.00% DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,20 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 79 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1092 DOWN .0001 or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.67 DOWN .097 OR YEN UP 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3174 UP .0045 POUND UP 45 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 42 basis points to 1.3192

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0388 ON SHORE (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 7.0320 (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA: 5.8123 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.00%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.81 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.23 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.40 DOWN 1 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 3.09 0.08%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 76.02 POINTS OR .58%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 12.85 POINTS 0.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 71.70 POINTS or 0.77%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 32.82 POINTS OR 0.14%

WTI Oil price; 58.64 12:00 PM EST

Brent Oil: 63.74 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 63.

53 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY035 BASIS PT3

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 58.90//

BRENT : 63.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.79.. down 5 basis pts…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.23..down 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1135 ( DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.56 DOWN .206 (YEN UP 21 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.11 DOWN 31 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.3201 UP 73 POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 5.8001

the Russian rouble 63.27 UP 0.23 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 23 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3175 UP 59 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 7.0388 (ONSHORE)/

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 7.0281 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.31%

The Dow closed UP 28.42 POINTS OR 0.10%

NASDAQ closed UP 37.87 POINTS OR 0.44%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.27 CLOSED DOWN .41

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.887%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollar Dumps To 5-Month Lows As Stocks, Bonds Jump On Fed Fold

The fed officially capitulated…

Source: Bloomberg

…removing any expectations for rate changes until the end of 2020 at the earliest…

Source: Bloomberg

Which sparked initial weakness in the dollar, dumping it to 5-month lows

Source: Bloomberg

But when Powell admitted he would consider bond purchases (not just Bill purchases), the dollar and Treasury yields tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were broadly higher on the day (though Small Caps lagged)…

The S&P dived briefly in the last few minutes on Navarro comments but bounced off vwap…

Treasury yields tumbled across the entire curve by 4-5bps (the belly was a modest outperformer)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve is tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

Today was the biggest drop in the dollar in two months, down 8 of the last 9 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable roundtripped yesterday’s “Johnson might not win by a mile” fears, as the latest polls suggested that he will…

Source: Bloomberg

With the most hedging since the Referendum vote…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan also roundtripped on the day, despite more

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos continue to limp lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper continued its charge higher today, crude was weaker as PMs gained on a weak dollar and Fed promises…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices tumbled after last night’s API and this morning’s DOE data showed a surprise crude build (but the machines bought the F’ing dip…

Silver soared back today as the dollar skidded – erasing a large part of the payrolls panic puke…

And gold did run the stops above the payroll sprint before fading back…

And gold in yuan erased the payrolls plunge…

Source: Bloomberg

So, summing it all up – it seems Powell and his merry men (and women… and any non-binary members of the FOMC) are not all-seeing… and we will have to 3wacth the ‘turn’ repo rate to see if they really can hold this shitshow together through year-end…

Oh and about that Aramco IPO – remember the last time a massive sovereign energy firm went public at over a trillion dollars…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

FOMC

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Signals No Action Until 2021 Earliest

Here are Bloomberg’s key takeaways from today’s FOMC decision:

The Fed leaves federal funds target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%, as expected, following three straight cuts; the FOMC says rates are currently “appropriate” to support growth, jobs and inflation, while officials omit prior language that said “uncertainties about this outlook remain”
The dot plot of policy makers’ rate projections shows 13 of 17 officials expect no change in borrowing costs through the end of 2020; most see higher rates as likely in 2021, with a further increase expected in 2022. There was little change in forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation.
The Fed reiterates its plan from October to address strains in money markets, including buying Treasury bills through at least the second quarter, with no new announcements (so far). The interest on excess reserves rate (IOER), which the Fed uses as tool to control the main federal funds rate, was also left unchanged at 1.55%.
The statement’s language on the economy was unchanged. The FOMC said the labor market and household spending were strong, while business investment and exports were weak. The Fed said it will continue to monitor information “including global developments and muted inflation pressures.”
The 10-0 decision is the first unanimous vote since May 1; Kansas City Fed President Esther George and the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren endorsed the rate hold after dissenting from all three rate cuts.

The Fed capitulated on rates…

2019 median Fed funds 1.6% vs 1.9%
2020 median Fed funds 1.6% vs 1.9%
2021 median Fed funds 1.9% vs 2.1%
2022 median Fed funds 2.1% vs 2.4%
Longer run Fed funds median at 2.5% compares to previous forecast of 2.5%

This is what that capitulation looks like…

Source: Bloomberg

But raised its GDP estimates…

* * *

Since The Fed cut rates in October, stocks have surged, bonds and the dollar have flatlined, and gold has leaked lower…

Source: Bloomberg

However, the yield curve is significantly flatter (despite a brief steepening)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and as a reminder, repo rate for the ‘turn’ are soaring…

Despite endless daily repo liquidity and a balance-sheet that is expanding at its fastest rate ever…

The last few months have seen the market price-out most of the uber-dovish sentiment, with less than one rate-cut now priced-in before the end of 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Which has left the market pricing in a 5% chance of an actual rate-hike today!!!!

Source: Bloomberg

* * *

So what can Powell say today? Expectations are for marginal language changes at most but as MacroHive’s Bilal Hafeez notes,m there are three main scenarios:

Base-case: With the trade deal uncertainty still hanging over the economy and markets, the Fed will maintain a cautious tone but likely refrain from delivering new easing measures (either rate cuts or a new facility, like the SRF or more QE). Data has been mixed but last week’s solid employment report gives the Fed some cloud cover to take a wait-and-see approach into 2020. The FOMC will likely reiterate that policy remains appropriate and that rates will remain on hold for 2020. At this meeting the press conference matters more than the statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecasts. We expect Chair Powell to downplay concerns over the repo operations. He will likely state that reserves in the system are slowly returning, but that the Fed remains on alert around year-end.
Hawkish-case: It’s a low probability outcome, but we are re-introducing the hawkish case in this preview in the event the Fed is increasingly more confident that it has managed to ‘soft land’ the economy. Although we do not think SEP projections have the same sort of cache as before, the risk is that their path will maintain the upward bias for 2021 and 2022.
Dovish-case: Building upon the base case scenario, which is already leaning to the dovish side, the Fed could deliver a dovish message in a couple ways. The most straightforward way would be to flatten the dot plot and suggest hikes are no longer on the cards as far as the eye can see. In many ways, recent Fed speeches suggest that they would only raise rates if inflation is consistently running above their 2% target. Related to this would be if Chair Powell mentions that the Fed is close to making a change on their 2% target and would be introducing a new framework that would allow for periods of inflation overshooting ahead.

* * *

As expected, The Fed held rates steady:

*FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED
*FED SAYS RATES ARE “APPROPRIATE” TO SUPPORT GROWTH, JOBS
*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO “UNCERTAINTIES” AROUND OUTLOOK

but all eyes are on the Dot-Plots, as they collapse to a relatively flat view of the rate-path ahead…

Source: Bloomberg

And the 2020 terminal rate has been ratcheted lower and lower in the last year…

Source: Bloomberg

It would be a shocker to everyone if markets move on this announcement.

* * *

Full Statement Redline below…

Dollar & Bond Yields Slide After FOMC Folds

The dollar is the highlight among price action following The Fed statement, tumbling back below its Oct 30th pre-FOMC levels. Bond yields are sliding lower also and stocks have reflexively rallied modestly…

A big drop in the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

And bond yields are sliding…

Source: Bloomberg

As algos lift stocks back above VWAP

With the rate-trajectory signaling no rate-cut until at least Dec 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

END

Powell refuses to state that QE 4 has begun

(zerohedge)

Fed Chair Powell Avoids Admitting QE4 Has Begun & Repocalypse Is Imminent

The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding at a record rate and ‘turn’ repo rates are soaring (despite endless daily liquidity provisions); so today’s FOMC press conference will be fun to see Powell squirm as he desperately avoids any admission that The Fed is in panic mode – which it is – and will never, ever raise rates ever again (which it won’t)…

If everything’s so awesome in the economy, why is all of the above occurring?

Watch Live (due to start at 1430ET):

Powell does not the question as to what the Fed will do if there is no cash at year end to satisfy hedge funds/banks

(zerohedge)

Powell Vs Poszar: Here Is What The Fed Chair Said About A Possible Repo Doomsday

While Powell’s remarks were generally in line with expectations, accentuating the slack in the labor market as a reason why the Fed will not be hiking rates any time soon while observing the general stabilization in the US and global economy and confirming monetary policy is generally on “autopilot” into 2021 while being flexible to respond to downside risks, what markets were mostly interested in were Powell’s comments on the repo market in the aftermath of the Zoltan Poszar repo “doomsday” blockbuster. In fact, there was a question in the Q&A in which a reporter specifically asked what if anything the Fed is thinking about the speculation that the shortage of reserves could spark a QE4 in the next few days.

Not surprisingly, Powell was quite subdued – as the alternative would be to spark even more concerns that the Fed is worried about repo – and said that while the Fed is open to Coupon purchases, it is more focused on the bill purchases, the year-end, and the review of supervisory and regulatory issues.

As an aside, Powell’s veiled hint that the Fed may shift to Coupon purchases, effectively transforming NOT QE into QE 4 is what sparked a buying spree across the curve, also sending the dollar to session lows.

And while Powell said that the repo market have been contained in recent months, he added cryptically that the “purpose is not to eliminate all volatility in the repo market”, which is odd considering it is the Fed’s purpose to eliminate all volatility in the equity, bond and FX markets.

Commenting on the Fed Chair’s response, Bloomberg rates strategist Ira Powell said “Powell acknowledged that the Fed is open to looking at tweaks to help ease repo funding markets. The Fed is going to keep using current operations until after year end.”

What we found more interesting is what Curvature’s repo expert, Scott Skyrm said about Powell’s commentary on repo, which we present below:

Here is what I heard it when Chairman Powell was asked about the “Repo event” and year-end:

Fed Tools

According to the Chairman, the Fed has the tools to accomplish their goals and they will use them. They stand ready to keep fed funds within the target range and they are prepared to adjust operations as appropriate.

Year-End

The Chairman stressed that there is a plan is in place and the “repo markets are functioning well.” Temporary upward pressure is not unusual and the pressure is manageable.

Those are all the positive statements at the press conference in reference to year-end and Repo.

These are a little less positive: Powell stated that the “goal is not to eliminate all volatility from the Repo market.” and there will be a “time for overnight and term repo to gradually decline.”

In other words, Powell echoed the general market consensus that just because nothing bad has happened to the repo market since September, that things are under control and there is nothing to be concerned about, and certainly no need to intervene proactively. Which means that Pozsar’s worst case scenario is effectively greenlighted, one in which the Fed will have to react to turmoil in the market if and when the reserve shortage strikes in the coming days. As for whether the Credit Suisse strategist is correct, earlier we laid out the two key things to watch into year end to see if the doomsday prediction is coming true.

So who will be right: Powell or Poszar? The answer will be revealed in the coming days.

END

ii)Market data/USA

Consumer prices jump the most in a year but goods used to produce other goods are deceerating in price

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Prices Jump Most In A Year, But Goods Costs Decelerate

US consumer prices jumped more than expected in November, rising 2.1% YoY – the biggest jump since Nov 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose 2.3% YoY (slightly slower than the last 3 months), with Energy, Used Cars, and Shelter dominating the MoM gains.

The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in November. The index for rent also rose 0.3 percent, while the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent over the month.

Increases in the indexes for medical care, for recreation, and for food also contributed to the overall increase

Perhaps most notably – given the fearmongering over Trump’s tariffs destroying the consumer – Goods prices are showing a notable deceleration as services costs surge…

Source: Bloomberg

Nothing here to spook The Fed too much ahead of today’s FOMC statement.

Additionally, consumers expect minimal price pressures over the longer term. The University of Michigan’s measure long-term inflation expectations matched a record low in the preliminary December survey.

end

We are clearly heading for a post 1 trillion dollar deficit

The deficit for November came in at $209 billion

(Market Watch)

U.S. runs $209 billion November budget deficit, Treasury says

Dec 11, 2019 2:02 p.m. ET

Shortfall estimated to exceed $1 trillion this fiscal year

MarketWatch

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $209 billion in November, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.

The numbers: The federal government ran a budget deficit of $209 billion in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday, an increase of just 2% from a year ago.

What happened: Spending for the month was $434 billion while the government brought in $225 billion.

Spending rose 6%, as outlays increased on Medicare, agriculture, military and other programs.

Receipts climbed by 9%, including higher collection of individual and payroll taxes and corporate taxes.

Customs duties increased by 14% for the month, as a trade conflict between the U.S. and China continues. Investors are looking next to Dec. 15, when another round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods is due to begin.

Big picture: For the first two months of the fiscal year, the deficit is 12% wider compared to the same period a year ago. The shortfall is expected to exceed $1 trillion each year over the coming decade, according to an August analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Your most important commentary for today: the author is commenting on the Pozsar paper yesterday where the latter describes that we will probably had a nightmare on Dec 31 due to lack of liquidity Poszar is worried that the repo rate will skyrocket because of this. Skyrm, another brilliant individual believes the Fed will increase the Rep money to save the system. However if the Rep rates continue to rise despite this, then all bets are off

(zerohedge)

Repocalypse 2.0 On Deck? “Turn” Repo Rates Are Blowing Out

Earlier today, repo market icon Zoltan Pozsar scared the living daylights out of cross-asset traders everywhere with what could be called a doomsday predictionin which the former NY Fed and Treasury staffer warned that as a result of collapsing systemic liquidity and a drought of “excess reserves”, the coming days could see a lock up in the FX swap market (in the process sending the US Dollar soaring), which would then translate to a violent deleveraging of massively levered hedge funds, and a liquidation first in the bond then stock market.

Yet while Pozsar had seemingly no concerns staking his hard-earned reputation on the outcome of a potentially catastrophic event that would subsequently be used by the Fed as a catalyst for QE4, he was far less confident about “when” it would occur:

it’s hard to have a definitive answer: it depends. It depends on how equities do, which depends on the trade deal and other random tweets. It depends on how auctions go, which depends on the equity market and the curve slope relative to actual funding costs.

Still, now that the genie is out of the bottle, everyone will become a cross-asset expert, trying to isolate even the smallest notable deviation from the norm as the horseman of the coming market apocalypse, and focusing first and foremost on the most direct indication that something is (again) broken in the repo market: the overnight general collateral repo rate.

However, what concerned market watchers will find when they pull up the recent O/N G/C repo rates is… nothing. Indeed, after the turbulent repo moves in mid/late September, and one outlier event in mid-October, the past two months have seen O/N repo barely move.

A very different picture however emerges when looking at forward, or “turn” repo rates, those that capture the year-end interval of Dec 31-Jan 2 (hence “turn”), where the past month has seen a sharp, consistent increase in repo rates, which peaked in the past two days around 4.10%-4.20%.

While one can argue that the rising repo pressure on the “turn” was due the traders starting to frontrun the dismal events laid out by Pozsar, there is a more conventional explanation for the upward pressure on the Turn, which as another repo expert, Curvature’s Scott Skyrm writes today, is “due to an abundance of collateral sellers, without any significant new cash entering the market – through end user cash investors or through the Federal Reserve.” Or, as he summarizes, “Basically, more sellers than buyers” of collateral.

That said, following today’s modest drop in the “turn”, we may have found ourselves in a very brief holding pattern, as the market is waiting for the specifics in the next round of Fed RP Operations to be announced on Thursday.

And this is where things get interesting: if Pozsar is right, nothing the Fed announces on Thursday short of QE4, will help relieve the pressure on the “turn” into year end, which the Credit Suisse strategist sees rising ever higher, until it forces dealers to freeze either the FX swap market, or the repo market, or – devastatingly – both. Everything else would, or perhaps should, be ignored by the market as the reserve hold in the financial system is massive and growing by the day as the Fed’s T-Bill QE failed to plug the liquidity drain.

Skyrm, on the other hand, has a more sanguine view, and expects the Fed to announce a $50 billion (at least) term operation for Monday December 23 (double the current term ops) and a $50 billion (at least) term operation for Monday, December 30. Of course, even Skyrm hedges, noting that “if the Fed announces operations of $25 billion or less on those days then Turn rates will immediately spike higher. However, in the past the Fed has always provided enough liquidity to the market and I still have faith.”

The Curvature analyst may have faith, but if Zoltan Pozsar is right – and he traditionally has been – in his apocalyptic forecast, the Fed has not been providing enough liquidity since mid-September, and certainly not in the correct format, and it will fail to do so in the coming days, forcing the “worst case scenario” Pozsar described, one in which the “year-end in the FX swap market is shaping up to be the worst in recent memory, and the markets are not pricing any of this.” It is only once markets “start pricing this”, especially after the liquidity-draining Dec 16 tax deadline, that the Fed will have no choice but to respond to the violent market repricing lower, finally launching the QE4 that mega dealers such as JPM have been begging for all along.

So who will be right: Pozsar, and his fatalistic forecast for a market crash in the coming days (that triggers QE4), or Skyrm’s cautious optimism? The answer will be revealed by the “turn” repo rate: if it resumes rising, and hits 5%, 6%, 7% or more, then all bets are off.

end

Boeing not a happy camper today as the FAA chief says that the 737 Max will not return this year

(zerohedge)

Boeing Slides After FAA Chief Says 737 MAX Won’t Return This Year

Exactly one month ago, Boeing stock soared despite the company’s dismal earnings because it claimed that 737 MAX deliveries “could” resume in December. We mocked the headfake at the time for the simple reason that not only was the MAX not coming back this year, but it may well never come back now that Boeing has seen its consumer faith crushed after it emerged it had put the bottom line above passenger safety.

Well, moments ago the Dow Jones Index dipped, when Boeing stock – by far its most influential member – slumped 1% after FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson told CNBC that Boeing‘s timeline isn’t FAA’s timeline, and that the MAX’ certification would extend in 2020, meaning the plane would not return to operation this year.

Predictably, BA stock slumped even if the move was far less than its surge on Nov 11 on the now refuted rumor the MAX would come back.

There’s a reason for the FAA’s caution: earlier today the WSJ reported that U.S. regulators decided to allow the 737 MAX jet to keep flying after its first fatal crash last fall, despite their own analysis “indicating it could become one of the most accident-prone airliners in decades without design changes.”

The November 2018 internal Federal Aviation Administration analysis, expected to be released during a House committee hearing Wednesday, reveals that without agency intervention, the MAX could have averaged one fatal crash about every two or three years, according to industry officials and regulators. That amounts to a substantially greater safety risk than either Boeing Co. or the agency indicated publicly at the time.

The assessment and related materials raise new questions about the FAA’s decision-making in the wake of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia, along with what turned out to be faulty agency assumptions on ways to alleviate hazards.

The FAA’s intervention proved inadequate after a second fatal MAX crash, this time in Ethiopia, put the global fleet on the ground and sparked an international controversy over the agency’s safety oversight.

And as public outrage is sure to return at both the FAA and Boeing, one can forget about the 737 MAX return to operation any time soon, and perhaps, any time ever.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Schiff memo is now debunked by the new I G report. Nunes is vindicated

(zerohedge)

‘Schiff Memo’ Debunked By IG Report; Nunes Vindicated

In February of 2018, Republicans and Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee released separate reports after spending months looking at the FBI’s conduct during the 2016 US election.

The Republicans, led by then-Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA), claimed:

The FBI used the unverified ‘Steele dossier’ in October 2016 to obtain a surveillance warrant on former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.

The agency concealed the fact that the Steele dossier was funded in part by the Clinton campaign, as well as the fact that the salacious document was in its “infancy” at the time of the FISA application.

Fusion GPS employee Nellie Ohr funneled her anti-Trump research to her husband Bruce, who was then the #4 at the DOJ (and since demoted for lying about his involvement with Steele – a former MI6 operative working for Fusion GPS dig up dirt on Donald Trump and his campaign).

The dossier was “only minimally corroborated” according to FBI officials, who could not verify its claims

Democrats, led by then-minority leader (and current chairman) Adam Schiff (D-CA), claimed in response:

The FBI and DOJ did not exclude information from the FISA warrant application.

The DOJ provided corroborating information in subsequent FISA renewals which backed Steele’s claims.

The FBI was able to collect “valuable intelligence” from the FISA warrant on Carter Page.

The DOJ made Steele’s credentials clear to the FISA court and did not omit material facts about the former UK spy.

The FBI underwent a “rigorous process” to investigate and vet Steele’s claims

Steele’s previous work had been used in “criminal proceedings.

Au contraire, Schiff… Monday’s FISA report supports the ‘Nunes memo’ and debunks the ‘Schiff memo’ – as explained by The Federalist‘s Mollie Hemingway:

Horowitz found that FBI and DOJ officials did in fact omit critical material information from the FISA warrant, including several items exculpatory to Page. Material facts were not just omitted but willfully hidden through doctoring of evidence.

The warrants were based on Steele’s dossier, which was known by January 2017 to be ridiculously uncorroborated. The renewals did not find information that corroborated Steele’s reporting. The warrants clearly didn’t allow the FBI to collect valuable intelligence. And Steele’s prior reporting was not used in criminal proceedings. –The Federalist

“We found that the FBI did not have information corroborating the specific allegations against Carter Page in Steele’s reporting when it relied upon his reports in the first FISA application or subsequent renewal applications,” reads the executive summary of the IG report.

Hemingway continues:

Via The Federalist

The media joined Department of Justice bureaucrats in bitterly opposing the release of the Nunes memo. The Justice Department released a letter to the press saying the action was “extraordinarily reckless,”would be “damaging” to “national security,” and would risk “damage to our intelligence community or the important work it does in safeguarding the American people.”

Then, when the report was released, the media made a variety of contradictory claims, all of them downplaying or dismissing the memo as nothing whatsoever. “Why Were The Democrats So Worried About The Nunes Memo?” asked The New Yorker. Rachel Maddow said that, far from destroying national security, instead the memo delivered “a sad trombone for Trump.” “It’s a joke and a sham,” claimed Washington Post writers.

“The memo purports to show that the process by which the FBI and Justice Department obtained approval from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to conduct surveillance on former Trump adviser Carter Page was deeply tainted,” the Post article says. “It does this by straining every which way to suggest that the basis for the warrant was the so-called ‘Steele dossier,’ which contains Democratic-funded research by former British spy Christopher Steele.” (The IG confirmed this week that the efforts to secure a warrant to spy on Page were dropped due to lack of evidence until Steele delivered his memos.)

On the other hand, Salon called the memo “fake news.” New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait, who fervently believes that Trump is a traitor who colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election, all evidence to the contrary, went even further. “The Nunes Memo Is Fake and the Russia Scandal Is Very Real,” he claimed. “While the evidence that the DOJ has been corrupt or even sloppy in its investigation has disintegrated, evidence for the seriousness of the investigation itself has grown progressively stronger,” Chait claimed.

CNN had their good buddy James Clapper, an Obama intelligence chief, say that the memo was a “blatant political act.” John Brennan, Obama’s CIA chief who was also implicated in the spying on the Trump campaign, told Politico that the memo was “exceptionally partisan.” Politico claimed the memo “makes no sense.”

“Nunes Memo Accidentally Confirms the Legitimacy of the FBI’s Investigation,” asserted The Intercept. “All Smoke, No Fire,” claimed resistance member Orin Kerr in The New York Times. “The Nunes Memo Continues To Backfire,” declared the hyperpartisan Washington Post editorial board.

A great example of the general media treatment of the issue of FISA abuse was offered up by U.S. News and World Report. “Nail in the Coffin for Nunes Memo,” declared the headline of an article that effusively praised Schiff while utterly condemning Nunes. “Nunes’ memo was a bad joke from the start,” the author writes, going on to assert that Page was a dangerous agent of Russia, multiple Trump campaign operatives were surveilled for excellent reason, and the ex-British spy secretly hired by Hillary Clinton to produce the dossier alleging Trump was a secret agent of Russia was simply beyond reproach.

“If the GOP’s defense of Page is puzzling so is its targeting of Steele, an accomplished British former spy with an expertise in Russia and Vladimir Putin,” claimed the U.S. News and World Report article. Steele’s reputation with most reporters was not based in reality and he doesn’t even claim he verified any of the information in his report, which a sprawling special counsel investigation was unable to corroborate in any of its central and major claims.

It is unclear if the media will revisit, much less apologize for, their false claims about the Nunes memo or credulous support of Schiff’s memo.

—-

Mollie Ziegler Hemingway is a senior editor at The Federalist. She is Senior Journalism Fellow at Hillsdale College and a Fox News contributor. Follow her on Twitter at @mzhemingway

end

it now seems that the Senate Republicans are now willing to let the Bidens off the hook. They want a fast vote and then get on with things. The Senate has enough votes to acquit

(zerohedge)

Senate Republicans To Let Bidens Off The Hook? May Skip Witnesses In ‘Expedited’ Impeachment Trial

While House Democrats are about to impeach President Trump for asking Ukraine to investigate the Bidens for what looks like obvious corruption – Senate Republicans have no interest in calling witnesses to determine whether Trump’s request was justified in the first place.

According to the Washington Examiner, the GOP-controlled Senate have no plans to call key witnesses to testify in an impeachment trial. This means Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, John Kerry’s stepson, Alexandra Chalupa and Ukrainian prosecutors involved in the Burisma case won’t set foot in the Senate.

Their reasoning? Senate Republicans have “no appetite” for it.

Senate impeachment rules require a majority vote to call witnesses, and with just two out of 53 votes to spare, there is no “appetite” among Republicans to pursue testimony from people that Democrats blocked Republicans from subpoenaing during the House investigation. Indeed, Republicans might forgo calling witnesses altogether, saying minds are made up on Trump’s guilt or innocence and that testimony at trial on the Senate floor would draw out the proceedings unnecessarily. –Washington Examiner

Instead, top Senate Republicans are leaning towards calling a quick vote to acquit Trump once House Democrats and the White House have delivered their arguments.

“endAt that point, I would expect that most members would be ready to vote and wouldn’t need more information,” said Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming – the #3 ranked Senate Republican. “Many people have their minds pretty well made up.”

“Here’s what I want to avoid: this thing going on longer than it needs to,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “I want to end this.”

The president is not in danger of being removed from office by the Senate, a move that requires 67 votes.

But in a trial, he is seeking exoneration. Some Republicans question whether that’s possible without hearing from witnesses, whether it be these or other less politically charged figures. “Not sure how you have a fair trial without calling witnesses,” said one Trump ally in the House. But with some Senate Republicans facing uncertain 2020 reelection contests and others privately unhappy with Trump’s behavior, mustering 51 GOP votes for Trump’s dream witness list appears impossible.

“How many senators would enjoy a Trump rally? That’s probably your whip count for calling Hunter,” a Republican senator said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. Senate Democrats are not expected to provide any votes to call Biden or the others. Or they might ask so high a price, demanding that in exchange, they be allowed to call Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, that Republicans balk. –Washington Examiner

“It becomes endless motions to call people, and I’m not sure what anybody gains from all that,” said #2 Senate Republican, John Thune of South Dakota.

That may not play well with Trump’s base, who was expecting to see a doddering Joe Biden and his cokehead son Hunter answer tough questions about Ukraine.

“President Trump’s allies will want to see witnesses called. How many, and which witnesses, will quickly become a dividing line,” said former Trump adviser Jason Miller, who co-hosts an impeachment-centric podcast with Steve Bannon.

Without witness testimony, the Senate proceedings would take roughly two weeks according to the report.

On Tuesday, House Democrats introduced two articles of impeachment accusing President Trump of abusing his power and obstructing Congress. Notably, there is no mention “extortion” or “quid-pro-quo” – accusations Democrats have been pounding on throughout the process.

end

Horowitz just shot all our Democrat loving FBI agents in the head in his testimony: “Nobody is vindicated who touched FISA” ie. Comey, Strzok, Page etc.

(zerohedge)

Horowitz Trips Up Comey’s Victory Lap: “Nobody Vindicated Who Touched This FISA”

While every painful second of every individual’s testimony during the impeachment hearings was relayed and narrative-managed by the mainstream media (and still failed to increase public awareness, let alone support for the Democrats’ plan), interested viewers were hard-pressed to find Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee (on his findings regarding alleged surveillance abuse during the 2016 election) anywhere on the mainstream.

There are plenty of nuggets to enjoy – if you can find a live stream (here) – but this one was particularly noteworthy.

A day after a smug-sounding James Comey tweeted that the IG’s report vindicated him:

“So it was all lies. No treason. No spying on the campaign. No tapping Trumps wires. It was just good people trying to protect America.”

Howoritz, in one short sentence, destroyed the former FBI Director’s credibility by explaining simply…

“I think the activities we found here don’t vindicate anybody who touched this FISA.”

As Mr. Horowitz wrote in his report, he lays the blame at the top (cough Comey cough):

“We are deeply concerned that so many basic and fundamental errors were made by three separate, hand-picked investigative teams; on one of the most sensitive FBI investigations; after the matter had been briefed to the highest levels within the FBI; even though the information sought through use of FISA authority related so closely to an ongoing presidential campaign; and even though those involved with the investigation knew that their actions were likely to be subjected to close scrutiny. We believe this circumstance reflects a failure not just by those who prepared the FISA applications, but also by the managers and supervisors in the [investigation’s] chain of command, including FBI senior officials who were briefed as the investigation progressed.”

As WSJ noted ironically, Mr. Comey’s memoir, “A Higher Loyalty,” relates how as FBI director he kept on his desk a copy of the October 1963 memo from J. Edgar Hoover asking for permission to wiretap Martin Luther King. He claims he did so to help ensure the bureau would never forget how a “legitimate counterintelligence mission . . . morphed into an unchecked, vicious campaign of harassment and extralegal attack.”

Mr. Horowitz’s findings about what was done under Mr. Comey’s leadership suggest there’s still a need for such a reminder.

Finally, in case the entire “Russia, Russia, Russia” narrative of the last three years has just become too much for you, here is Senator Lindsay Graham, in two short minutes explaining the whole farce so clearly that we dare even the most dyed in the wool NeverTrumper to explain how this was not a clear act of sedition…

Buck Sexton

✔@BuckSexton

I would like someone to explain how this egregious FBI conduct happens for any reason-

other than a deep state bureaucrat’s desire to keep the pressure on the Trump campaign out of political malice https://twitter.com/politicalshort/status/1204790697645215744 …

Nick Short

✔@PoliticalShort

“A lawyer (Clinesmith) supervising the FISA process at the FBI doctored an email from the CIA to the FBI, he’s being referred for criminal prosecution.” Doctored email altered the fact that Carter Page was working as source for CIA, not for the “Russians”.

Of course, as Sen. Marsha Blackburn exzclaimed on Twitter, “The fact that CNN and MSNBC refused to run Lindsey Graham’s opening statement uninterrupted, but is now carrying Senator Feinstein’s, is proof that political bias is not isolated to the FBI.”

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@DailyCaller: “Rep. Jerry Nadler: Today, in service to our duty to the Constitution, and to our country, the House Committee on the Judiciary is introducing two articles of impeachment charging the president of the United States, Donald J. Trump, with committing high crimes and misdemeanors.”

Rep. Adam Schiff: “The argument ‘Why don’t you just wait?’ amounts to this: ‘Why don’t you just let him cheat in one more election? Why not let him cheat just one more time? Why not let him have foreign help just one more time?'”

Nadler said the House will vote this week on whether to impeach Trump on abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Unfathomably and revealingly, Schiff said impeachment isn’t about facts but duty. Risibly, Schiff also said the judicial system should not be used because judges take too long to rule. This is the gist of Dems’ absurd obstruction charge – that by going to the courts, Trump obstructed Congress.

CBS’s Major Garrett: Democrats walking away from bribery, extortion allegations against Trump ‘in full public view’ – “But Democrats don’t want to wait for the court procedures, in some cases haven’t even engaged them to test this question in court. They’ve left with obstruction of Congress, which is a smaller sounding, and in the history of impeachment, less enforceable…

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/473898-cbss-major-garrett-democrats-walking-away-from-bribery-extortion-allegations

Dershowitz: Two House articles of impeachment fail to meet constitutional standards

Both are so vague and open ended that they could be applied in partisan fashion by a majority of the House against almost any president from the opposing party. Both are precisely what the Framers had rejected at their Constitutional Convention. Both raise the “greatest danger,” in the words of Alexander Hamilton, that the decision to impeach will be based on the “comparative strength of parties,” rather than on “innocence or guilt.”… If the House votes to impeach…Trump on grounds not authorized by the Constitution, its action, in the words of Hamilton, is void… If this is indeed the case, then the Senate will be confronted with a constitutional dilemma, if and when it will receive a void and invalid impeachment. It will have to decide whether to proceed with a trial of charges that are unconstitutional and therefore are void…

The unconstitutional action by a majority of the House to impeach a president on grounds not specified in the Constitution will certainly do considerable damage to the rule of law.

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/473849-two-house-articles-of-impeachment-fail-to-meet-constitutional-standards

Democrats’ latest impeachment line: Investigating corruption is ‘election interference’

Here is what you need to understand the House Judiciary Committee’s impeachment hearings on Monday: According to Democrats, any investigation of possible Democratic corruption, or of Democratic collusion with foreign officials to interfere in our elections, is itself impeachable interference in our elections. Seriously… Democrats have also had trouble identifying a crime. That’s why they appear to have settled on a vague “abuse of power” standard that would make every future president impeachable… by ex-SDNY prosecutor Andy McCarthy

https://nypost.com/2019/12/09/democrats-latest-impeachment-line-investigating-corruption-is-election-interference/

@ABC: Pres. Trump says Democrats’ two articles of impeachment are “very weak,” calls announcement of modified trade pact [House approved USMCA] “the silver lining to impeachment.” “They wanted to muffle down the impeachment because they’re embarrassed by it.“ https://abcn.ws/358etAn

AG Barr in NBC interview: “I think our nation was turned on its head for 3 years, I think, based on a completely bogus narrative that was largely fanned and hyped by a completely irresponsible press. I think there were gross abuses of FISA and inexplicable behavior that isn’t tolerable in the FBI. The Attorney General’s primary responsibility is to protect against the abuse of the law enforcement and intelligence apparatus and make sure it does not play an improper role in our political life. That’s my responsibility and I’m going to carrying it out.

https://twitter.com/M2Madness/status/1204466401228001281

NBC’s Pete Williams to Barr: “Do you still stand by your statement that the campaign was spied upon?” Barr: “Oh, it was clearly spied upon. That’s what electronic surveillance is. I think wiring people up to go in and talk to people and make recordings of their conservations is spying. I think go through people’s email is…” https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1204485127251869696

More from Barr’s interview on NBC (Barr wants to be heard and he wants to be ‘perfectly clear’.):
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1204461639308853251

Barr said the FBI filed for a FISA warrant AFTER Carter Page left Trump campaign’s so it could go back in time and procure his past emails and communications as well as Trump campaign communications.

Barr also stated that there is no explanation for the FBI NOT warning the Trump campaign about Russian interference in the 2016 election and his campaign team. Barr is clearly signaling that top FBI, DoJ and intelligence officials could face prosecution. Barr believes Durham will finish his probe by early summer.

@WSJ: U.S. Attorney General William Barr calls the FBI’s investigation of President Trump’s campaign a “travesty” in comments made at the WSJ CEO Council event in Washington, D.C. Barr gives a great summary of the FBI/FISA abuses in 2 minutes and change at link:

https://twitter.com/JohnWHuber/status/1204544953948528640

Barr is clearly upset. He is staging a public campaign against MSM and Dem spin. The AG explicitly blamed the media for the three-year national turmoil over Trump (“…based on a completely bogus narrative that was largely fanned and hyped by a completely irresponsible press.”). Barr is preparing the nation, the MSM, wrongdoers and others for the coming high-level prosecutions.

On “Hannity” Monday night, Carter Page confessed that he served as a CIA asset and a cooperating witness in an FBI espionage case against Russian agents. But, the FBI left these facts out of its FISA applications to spy on him and the Trump campaign. Page says he will take legal action against the officials that were involved in the abuse.

@ChuckRossDC: It’s not so much that the FBI opened up an investigation on the Trump campaign. The bar is low. It’s that the FBI buried information that should otherwise have warranted ending the investigation much earlier than it was.

Why didn’t a gov’t agency (FBI/DOJ/OIG) disclose these problems with the Steele dossier years ago? Why let that black cloud hang over the administration?

Obama on April 10, 2016: “I do not talk to the attorney general about pending investigations. I do not talk to FBI directors about pending investigations. We have a strict line and always have maintained it.”

The OIG report says Comey informed Obama about the investigation in August 2016.

@Barnes_Law: OIG report reminds us how spookily accurate John LeCarre is about the world of spooks: mediocre men w/ privileged pedigrees fantasizing they are James Bond patriotic heroes while acting like slimy, two-bit, comically inept saboteurs from an Elmore Leonard novel.

OIG report reveals worst suspicions: Obama admin weaponizing the most invasive & potent tools of our law enforcement, national security and international spy agencies against their political opponent, violating basic procedural protections and perjuring before courts to do it.

@realDonaldTrump: I don’t know what report current Director of the FBI Christopher Wray was reading, but it sure wasn’t the one given to me. With that kind of attitude, he will never be able to fix the FBI, which is badly broken despite having some of the greatest men & women working there!

Wray will be fired when the impeachment theatre ends.

@SaraCarterDC: Joe Biden Pledges to Not Comply with Senate Subpoena in Impeachment Trial

‘End this’: Republicans poised to call no witnesses during Trump impeachment trial in Senate

Top Republicans are leaning toward calling for a vote to acquit Trump immediately after House Democrats and the White House have delivered their arguments to head off partisan disagreements that might lengthen the trial… [To spare Bidens and GOP Senators that might have dabbled in Ukraine graft?]

Trump is planning to wage a vigorous defense in the Republican-controlled Senate, where he expects more evenhanded treatment. That has led some of the president’s defenders to hope the Senate calls witnesses such as Hunter Biden, son of former Vice President Joe Biden; the whistleblower; Democratic operative Alexandra Chalupa; and Glenn Simpson and Peter Fritsch, whose firm, Fusion GPS, was contracted during the 2016 campaign to dig up dirt on Trump…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/end-this-republicans-poised-to-call-no-witnesses-during-trump-impeachment-trial-in-senate

U.S. Senate leader McConnell raises possibility of quick impeachment trial

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-impeachment-mcconnell-idUSKBN1YE2RH

Reports say Trump is at odds with McConnell on an impeachment trial. Trump wants to bring in the Bidens, the whistleblower, Schiff, Pelosi, maybe Obama, and bevy of Deep Staters to grill under oath. McConnell wants a speedy ending to the ordeal. Mitch doesn’t want Trump to delve into corruption.

@TrumpWarRoom: Any Democrat that votes for this sham impeachment “will be voting to sacrifice their House majority, their dignity and their career,” President Trump tells the massive crowd in Pennsylvania.

“We’re dealing with people that don’t respect you.

The MSM have not released any impeachment polls since November 25 – probably for a good reason.

DoJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz will testify at 10 am ET to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

end

Let us close out tonight with this offering courtesy of Bill Holter and Greg Hunter

Already Inside Gates of Hell – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On December 11, 2019

Financial writer Bill Holter says revelations this week from the DOJ Inspector General about the FBI spying on everything Trump, and the ongoing criminal investigation on the origins of the Trump Russia hoax, are going to be a disaster for the financial markets. Holter explains, “We are financially and socially inside the gates of Hell. If you see big name arrests, and obviously from the previous administration all the way up to the top, you are going to see an awful lot of happy people and an awful lot of freaked out people that could lead to civil war. From a financial standpoint, I don’t see how markets can stand up with the amount of leverage in the system. At this point, they are already having a problem holding that leverage up. Just from the standpoint of foreigners looking at the U.S., foreigners will probably pull their capital hard and fast.”

If you want to see real trouble brewing behind the scenes in the banking world, look no further than the repo market, where banks get funding and liquidity on a nightly basis. Some nights, $100 billion or more is doled out to keep the system from locking up. Unlike the financial meltdown in 2008, hedge funds now make up 20% of the repo funding market. Here at the end of the year, Holter says few institutions have ready cash on hand and have leverage many times over. Holter contends, “Assuming the numbers are real, hedge funds are prone to bank runs. Hedge funds are prone to large liquidations. The banks who have been funding the overnight repo market now seem to fear a run in the hedge fund market. . . . To me, it smells like a bank run in the making. If the credit does not get through to these hedge funds, this means they have to unwind positions. Their positions are leveraged seven, eight or ten times over. That means if they are forced to sell, they would have to sell $10 of assets to get $1 of cash.” Meaning the markets could crash.

Holter goes on to explain, “Markets have moved higher based on the use of credit, leveraged credit, leveraged derivatives. If you take the credit out from under it, it’s not dollar for dollar. It’s five dollars, ten dollars or twenty dollars for every one dollar of credit that gets pulled. That’s how much will have to get sold. The credit has held the markets up, but if credit is not forthcoming, then you will see a market crash. You will see forced selling. This is a microcosm of inflate or die. This is part of it.”

Holter has long said, “This is the biggest debt bubble in history.” He says we are in the perfect geopolitical and financial storm that can shake people to the core. Holter says, “I believe it breaks confidence. Others say arrests and indictments will increase confidence. I agree with that in the long term, but initially, it breaks confidence, not only in the United States, but outside with foreigners. If there are no arrests, we live in a complete banana republic land. . . . This was and is a coup attempt. . . . This is by far the most intricate coup attempt in the history of history. If they don’t do something about this, then what does that say about our form of government? . . . Confidence is going to break, and confidence is what markets basically rely and trade on. Confidence is the largest factor in the credit markets, and the world runs on credit.”

So, is this why so many top money managers and financial experts are telling people to buy gold? Holter says, “They see that confidence is going to break. . . .What kind of asset doesn’t get affected, and not only affected negatively, but it gets affected positively? The answer is gold and silver. They are non-liability money. They are not issued by anyone. . . . It is real money.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter from JSMineset.com.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DEC CONTRACT: 867 NOTICE(S) FOR 86700 OZ (2.696 tonnes)

183 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 690,000 OZ/

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 7197 DOWN 26

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7176 DOWN 48

Let us have a look at the data for today

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Let us head over to the comex:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 231,655 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 246,954 contracts

INITIAL standings for DEC/GOLD

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC .

INITIAL standings/SILVER

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Claudio Grass: Negative rates destroy the value of time, and civilization is next

Pam and Russ Martens: NYTimes ignores new Wall Street bailout

Load up on debt now, since it all may be written off soon

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: An early look at gold in 2020

Stefan Gleason: Gold ETF holdings surge, but do they actually hold gold?

iii) Other physical stories:

The Physical Demands for Au/Ag, Blow Out The Paper!

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

“Markets Have Not Priced In Any Bad News”: Futures Frozen As Barage Of Risk Events Looms

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

Yuan Tumbles After Navarro Warns “No Indication That Tariffs Will Be Delayed”

“Unprecedented” China Auto Market Collapse Heads Into Third Year After November Sales Drop 4.2%

As Prices Skyrocket, China Claims It Doesn’t Need US Pork To Ensure Domestic Supply

Peter Navarro Highlights Case For More China Tariffs In Memo

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Pound Rollercoaster After Last Poll Suggests Hung Parliament Remains Likely

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey Threatens To Revoke US Nuclear Base In Incirlik After Sanctions Bill Advances To Senate Floor

6.Global Issues

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly In NAFTA 2.0

Goodbye NAFTA, Hello USMCA

USMCA Key Provisions

Point by Point Comments

AFL-CIO President Rich Trumka Tweets

Dramatically Worse

Trump on USMCA

Devil in the Details

Good for Unions, Bad for Consumers

Proud Union Hater

GM and Ford

Pensions

Get The Hell Out Now

Trump Irony

Trump Shuts Down WTO Appeals Court, Sending EU, China Scrambling For ‘Plan B’

7. OIL ISSUES

Aramco Stock Soars Limit Up In Debut After Saudis Force Locals To Buy

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Meat Prices Spike 8% In Brazil, Threatening A Holiday-Gathering Mainstay For Many

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollar Dumps To 5-Month Lows As Stocks, Bonds Jump On Fed Fold

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Signals No Action Until 2021 Earliest

Dollar & Bond Yields Slide After FOMC Folds

Fed Chair Powell Avoids Admitting QE4 Has Begun & Repocalypse Is Imminent

Powell Vs Poszar: Here Is What The Fed Chair Said About A Possible Repo Doomsday

US Consumer Prices Jump Most In A Year, But Goods Costs Decelerate

Repocalypse 2.0 On Deck? “Turn” Repo Rates Are Blowing Out