GOLD:$1693.65 UP $8.45 The quote is London spot price

Silver:$14.86 UP 0 CENTS

Closing access prices: London spot

i)Gold : $1700.20 LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm

ii)SILVER: $14.097//LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES: KEY MONTHS

MAY COMEX GOLD: 1698.80 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD: $1702.50 CLOSE 1.30 PM// SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $17.10.//PREMIUMS WENT UP AGAIN

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: XXX

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE; $14.94…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY: 8 CENTS PER OZ//PREMIUMS UP AGAIN

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices. The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 436/1054

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,684.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/30/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 05/04/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 14
099 H DB AG 27
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 123
135 H RAND 1
152 C DORMAN TRADING 3 8
323 H HSBC 30
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 29
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 200
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 10
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 57
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 764
661 C JP MORGAN 436
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 5 22
690 C ABN AMRO 36 216
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 21 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 25 12
905 C ADM 44
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1,054 1,054
MONTH TO DATE: 2,887

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT: 1054 NOTICE(S) FOR 105,400 OZ (3.278 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 5979 NOTICES FOR 597900 OZ (8.979 TONNES)

SILVER

FOR may

1819 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 27,445,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 5489 for 27,445,000 oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE $9025 UP 386

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $8,720 UP $99

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $8.40: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT: WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY//

GLD: 1,056.50 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO SILVER OZ ADDED/OR REMOVED FROM THE SLV

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 412,826 MILLION OZ./

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4354 CONTRACTS FROM 139,026 DOWN TO 134,672 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE HUGE SIZED LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 26 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, CONSIDERABLE LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING A HUMONGOUS SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY. WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1642 CONTRACTS (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: MARCH: 00 AND MAY: 0 AND JULY: 2712 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 2712 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2712 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2712 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.56 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 26 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR JULY

10.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

46.810 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR MAY

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 26 CENTS).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS BUT A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. WE ALSO HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE DID HAVE A NET LOSS OF 1642 CONTRACTS OR 8.210 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAY:

2712 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2712 CONTRACTS) OR 13.56 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2712 CONTRACTS OR 13.56 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 13.56 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,002.405 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL : …… 259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S ….. 452.280 MILLION OZ //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP 95.355 MILLION OZ. (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP SO FAR: 13.56 MILLION OZ

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS IS A LOT LESS. NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4354, WITH OUR 26 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2712 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1642 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 26 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2712 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A HUGE SIZED DECREASE OF 4354 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 26 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.86 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1819 NOTICE(S) FOR 9,095,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ// NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC: 20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN: 5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY 46.810 MILLION OZ
THE RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018: 244,710 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9089 CONTRACTS TO 490,551 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE COMEX LOSS IN PRICE OF $15.95 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH THE LOSS IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD 0 ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 6151 CONTRACTS (19.13 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 2736 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB> 0 CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 2736.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2736. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 490,551. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6151 CONTRACTS: 9089 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2936 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS OF 6151 CONTRACTS OR 19.13 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF $15.95 IN GOLD TRADING..….

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN PRICE, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 1913 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $15.95). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS SUCCESSFUL (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE: ZERO

END

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2936) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI (9089 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3128 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAY MONTH, 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN SILVER AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE JUNE.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD. THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 2936 CONTRACTS OR 293,600 oz OR 9.132 TONNES (1 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 2936 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 9.132 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 9.132/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.257% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH…THE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE: 2575.48 TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE : 653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 1,098.93 TONNES (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE: 243.45 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9.132 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4354 CONTRACTS FROM 139,073 DOWN TO 134,672 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 2 3/4 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A LARGE DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAY 4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION

EFP ISSUANCE 2712 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR 0: AND MAY: 0 JULY: 2712 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2712 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4160 CONTRACTS TO THE 2712 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1448 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.240 MILLION OZ!!! WITH THE 26 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 26 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2712 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.64 POINTS OR 1.33% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.63 POINTS OR 0.28% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 4.87%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 7.0623 /Oil UP TO 19.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and 26.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0623 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.1253 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 9089 CONTRACTS TO 493,576 MOVING FURTHER FROM OUR RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX OI LOSS WAS SET WITH OUR LOSS OF $15,95 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (2936 CONTRACTS),. THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3) ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX // APRIL/GOLD… AS WE ENGINEERED A CONSIDERABLE LOSS ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 6151 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD ZERO 4 GC ISSUANCE

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1510 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0 JUNE : 2936 AND 0 FOR DEC AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2936 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6151 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2936 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 9089 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY……(SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW), DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL BY $15.95). BUT, THEY WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS, AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 19.13 TONNES.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 6151 CONTRACTS OR 615100 OZ OR 19.13 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION. IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING: 490,551 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.05 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE = 1525 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1525/2200 OR 69.34% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 166,114 contracts

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	19,001.900 oz SCOTIA
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	36,157.793 oz Brinks
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	162,728.593 OZ BRINKS HSBC MALCA
No of oz served (contracts) today	1054 notice(s) 105,400 OZ (3.278 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)	5247 contracts (524700 oz) 16.32 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	2887 notices 288700 OZ 8.979 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total gold withdrawals; 19,001.900 oz

We had 1 kilobar transactions +

We had zero 4 KC bar transaction

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

The front month of May registered a GIGANTIC total of 6301 oi contracts for a loss of 1738 contracts. We had 1833 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 95 contracts or an additional 9500 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and thus negate a fiat bonus.

The next delivery month after May is the huge delivery month of June. Here June saw a LOSS OF 8893 contracts DOWN to 326,212 contracts. July has its initial 7 OI contracts gain and thus 7 contracts outstanding. Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL by 1261 contracts up to 76,640 contracts.

We had 1054 notices filed today for 105,400 oz

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2887) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of May. (6301 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (1,054 x 100 oz per contract) equals 813,400 OZ OR 25.300 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of May

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the May/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (2887)x 100 oz + 6301 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1054) x 100 oz which equals 813,400 oz standing OR 25.300 TONNES in this non active delivery month. This is a record amount for gold standing for any May delivery month or any non active delivery month.

We gained a 95 contracts or an additional 9500 oz will seek out metal on this side of the pond.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD: BRINKS

3027.500 OZ REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED JAN 21.2020/HSBC 5.4807 TONNES

3,468,643.910 oz PLEDGED MARCH 2020 JPMORGAN: 10.788 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA: 1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT: 528,072.303 OZ OR 16.147 TONNES

total pledged gold:

c) pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled (1.3234 tonnes)

total weight of pledged: 528,072.303 oz or 16.147 tonnes

thus:

registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 5,471,738.6 (170.194 tonnes)

true registered gold (total registered – pledged tonnes 5,471,738.6 (170.194 tonnes)

total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold; 20,542,503.180 oz 638.95 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold: 127.92 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC: 511.03 tonnes

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

MAY 1/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4354 CONTRACTS FROM 139,026 DOWN TO 134,672(AND FURTHER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196). THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE STRONG OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 26 CENT DECREASE IN PRICING//THURSDAY. THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4)SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR 26 CENT LOSS IN PRICE

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF MAY SAW A HUGE 5692 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING AND THUS WE HAD A LOSS OF 4851 CONTRACTS. We had 3670 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 1181 contracts or an additional 5,905,000 oz will NOT stand at the comex as these guys morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their efforts. It sure looks like we have a Harlem Globetrotter vs Washington Generals game on our hands.

AFTER MAY WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. HERE JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 6 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 245.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI LOST 906 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 99,406 CONTRACTS

We, today, had 1819 notice(s) FILED for 9,095,000, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

MAY 1/2020

MAY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,783,646.829 oz CNT Brinks Delaware Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	1054 CONTRACT(S) (9,095,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	3873 contracts 19,365, 000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	5489 contracts 27,445,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan: 0

ii)into everybody else: 0

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of total silver inventory or 50.78% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/316.64 million

total customer deposits today: nil oz

we had 4 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 5887.200 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 661,682.450 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 515,874.979 oz

iv) Out of Scotia: 600,200.200 oz

total withdrawals; 1,783,646.829 oz

We had 1 adjustments: customer to dealer:

from Delaware: 64,146.299 oz

total dealer silver: 88.818 million

total dealer + customer silver: 314.851 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2020. contract month is represented by 1819 contract(s) FOR 9,095,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5489 x 5,000 oz = 27,445,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY.(5692) and the number of notices served upon today 1819 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 5489 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (5692)- number of notices served upon today (1819) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.equals 46,810,000 oz.

We lost 1181 or an additional 5,905,000 oz will seek out metal on the London side of the pond.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 33,733 CONTRACTS //

FOR YESTERDAY: 75,692 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 75,692 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 378 million OZ 54.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO +0.72% ((MAY 1/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO +1.16% to NAV: (MAY 1/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into POSITIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.72%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.41 TRADING 15.50///POSITIVE 0.59

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.65/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.19 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 1056.50 TONNES//

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS 3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS. THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

MAY 1/ GLD INV 1056.50 tonnes*

IN LAST 811 TRADING DAYS: +110.16 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

LAST 711 TRADING DAYS;+285.14 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 28 /WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

MAY 1.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

412.826 MILLION OZ.

END

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES AND GOLD LEASE RATES:

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.71/ and libor 6 month duration 0.76

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 1.95

GOLD SCARCE//BANKS CALLING IN THEIR LEASES..

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.86

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = -.75

GOLD SCARCE AND HUGELY NEGATIVE

ANYBODY BORROWING GOLD IS PAYING A HANDSOME PRICE

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Will gold really hit $3,000 an ounce in the next 18 months?

1, May

By John Stepek Moneyweek

Gold is set to hit $3,000 an ounce in the next 18 months. That’s about 50% more than its all-time high, set back in 2011. (It’s at about $1,700 an ounce just now).

You might be tempted to dismiss this as yet another hopeful-yet-hallucinatory outburst from the bulletin boards of one of the internet’s dedicated gold websites. But it’s not. This is a call from a major investment bank – Bank of America.

Are they right? And what does it say about where we are in gold’s current bull market?

A punchy call on gold prices

Earlier this week, a team of commodity analysts at Bank of America, led by Francisco Blanch and Michael Widmer, put out a 15-page report discussing the reasons why they think that gold is set to hit $3,000 an ounce in the next 18 months.

The headline of the report sums up their rationale: “The Fed can’t print gold”. But let’s elaborate on that a bit.

First things first, the global economy has taken a massive hit from Covid-19 and the measures to contain it. Most countries with any sort of statistical competence or honesty are going to register double-digit collapses in GDP for one or more quarters.

That’s an extraordinary collapse, which requires an extraordinary response. And mostly, that’s what we’ve seen.

Governments and central banks are largely operating in tandem now. Governments are spending a lot of money to try to keep the economy in suspended animation, rather than in total collapse – you can’t force economies to close down without offering some sort of compensation for the people most affected by that.

(The efficacy of the measures and the question of whether the money is getting to where it needs to go is a separate issue, worth looking at, but it’s not relevant to today, so we’ll open that can of worms another day.)

With spending exploding at a time when tax revenues are going to collapse, someone’s going to need to pay for that. That’s what central banks are doing.

We can scamper merrily around the idea of whether this is “true” debt monetisation or temporary liquidity provision (which does matter, but only to an extent, and again we’ll park it for another day) – but in practice, central banks are pulling money out of nowhere to give to governments to spend.

So the straightforward argument is this: central banks will print money. Their currencies will be devalued as a result (the more you print, the less each bit is worth). But no one can print gold. That’s your bull case.

What might ruin gold’s party?

I’m not going to lie, when I see big, bold calls like this, I instinctively want to take the other side of the trade.

Gold has already done very well this year. As the BoA team points out, despite a sharp drop in March, in the year to mid-April, gold had returned more than 10%, a return only beaten by 30-year US government bonds and the highest-quality tech stocks.

So while I agree with the arguments for higher gold, what might ruin the bullish argument? The BoA report nods to the strong US dollar, a plunge in jewellery demand in India and China, and also “reduced financial market volatility”.

It’s this latter that I’d be paying the most attention to right now. Gold is a “risk-off” asset. Ultimately, investors buy it when they’re worried that nothing else is going to hang on to its value.

That can happen when the financial system is at risk of collapse, which has been driven mostly by deflationary pressures in recent decades. And it could also happen if and when inflation takes off to the point where financial assets are at risk of losing their “real” (after-inflation) value rapidly and painfully.

But between those two extremes, there’s quite possibly a period in which it looks as though everything is getting back under control. At that point, do investors want to own gold or do they want to pile into equities?

I’m not saying for a minute that you should sell out of gold (we view it as a core holding in any portfolio). And in any case, I’m not sure we’ll get the “Goldilocks” moment in this recovery.

This pandemic is going to have a lot of unanticipated consequences so regardless of how big a cushion central banks are trying to create, volatility is going to be higher than it has been in the past. (For more on this, listen to Merryn’s latest podcast with the excellent Alexander Chartres of Ruffer, right here.)

And in the longer run, there is one key factor that the BoA team also highlights, one that I just don’t think can be avoided. That’s the need for “financial repression”.

Why financial repression will drive gold higher

What’s “financial repression”? It’s when governments across the globe try to hold real interest rates at as negative a level as they can get away with.

If you have cash savings in almost any bank account right now, you’ve already been experiencing it for a long time. Even if you’re earning 1% interest, that’s lower than the inflation rate. So the real value of your savings is being eroded, to the benefit of the person or entity that owes you this money (yes, savings in a bank account are basically a debt that the bank owes you).

Financial repression is all about paying off debt with devalued currency. In other words, it’s about a transfer of wealth from creditors to debtors. Or if you want to put it in a way that implies an entirely different power dynamic, it’s about taking money from savers to give to spenders.

So at the end of the day, I’m bullish on gold. I’m just trying to point out to the over-excitable that these things never go up in a straight line, and that there are plenty of good reasons why gold’s bullish run might be derailed for a short or even a lengthy period of time.

But if you don’t own any, I would aim to rectify that (yes, even if you’re a sterling investor). You can buy physical gold or you can buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs). You can also invest in gold miners, but just remember that’s not the same thing – gold is gold; miners are equities that should (but may not) benefit from a rising gold price.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold gains on bleak U.S. data, but en route for 2% weekly fall

Gold demand inched up to 1,083.8 tonnes (t) in Q1, supported by investment

Oil rises again as output cuts kick in, inventories grow less than expected

Trump threatens new tariffs on China in retaliation for coronavirus

Gold Loses Shine on Moderating Coronavirus Fears

“Yes It Will. The Only Question Is When” – WATCH HERE

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

30-Apr-20 1716.75 1702.75, 1373.92 1361.69 & 1577.86 1568.91
29-Apr-20 1706.00 1703.35, 1371.97 1368.64 & 1569.69 1568.10
28-Apr-20 1708.10 1691.55, 1367.68 1357.98 & 1571.11 1559.27
27-Apr-20 1717.25 1714.95, 1381.36 1380.19 & 1582.96 1581.18
24-Apr-20 1727.25 1715.90, 1401.32 1391.59 & 1604.96 1589.09
23-Apr-20 1727.55 1736.25, 1399.49 1405.84 & 1601.78 1608.64
22-Apr-20 1702.65 1710.55, 1377.95 1388.28 & 1567.46 1576.44
21-Apr-20 1678.60 1682.05, 1328.16 1364.82 & 1548.00 1547.82
20-Apr-20 1684.95 1686.20, 1349.14 1355.70 & 1547.63 1551.98
17-Apr-20 1693.15 1692.55, 1362.48 1354.04 & 1564.47 1555.79
16-Apr-20 1717.85 1759.50, 1378.57 1382.91 & 1581.45 1589.06
15-Apr-20 1712.25 1718.65, 1367.92 1377.33 & 1566.02 1580.99
14-Apr-20 1715.85 1741.90, 1367.36 1383.07 & 1567.91 1588.26
09-Apr-20 1662.50 1680.65, 1339.48 1348.22 & 1529.00 1538.13
08-Apr-20 1649.05 1647.80, 1328.27 1330.27 & 1517.00 1513.14

NOTE: Inbound deliveries to our Loomis and Brink’s vaults in Zurich, Singapore, London and Dublin have resumed and investors can move their assets to our vaults from safe deposit box companies, bullion stored with banks or digital gold platforms or ETFs.

We have resumed buying non stored bullion again and are buying gold and silver coins and bars at attractive premiums. Please email us for shipping instructions to vaults: support@goldcore.com

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne

Executive Director

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Very strange: comex operator prepares for a clearing member default

MarketWatch/GATA

Comex operator prepares for clearing member default

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2020-05-01 00:51. Section: Daily Dispatches

CME Group Secures $7 Billion Credit Facility to Protect Against a Clearing Member Default

By Tomi Kilgore
MarketWatch.com, New York
Thursday, April 30, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-group-secures-7-billion-credit-fac…

CME Group Inc. disclosed today that it agreed to an amendment that gives the commodity exchange company a $7 billion multi-currency credit facility.

The company said the 364-day amended facility is intended to provide liquidity “in the event of a clearing member default,” a liquidity constraint or depository default, or in the event of a delay in the payment systems used by CME.

…

The company’s stock fell 2.8% in afternoon trading. It has dropped 19.4% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has shed 11.6%.

* * *

end

In answer to the above story

from G. to us:

Ask yourself what is going on behind the scenes (defaults in oil, gold!?!?!?) that the CME needs a $7bn revolving credit in all currencies. Ask yourself this is very unusual. This is typical the moment the system breaks down the custodians that have used one collateral for several loans suddenly come up short. Remember the fractional system, the collateral is only a fraction of the outstanding obligation, only works when everything is honkey dory. Leverage is a bitch when the system fails say hello to massive counter party risk hence why you want physical gold and silver and mining company shares. Gijs

After Gold & Oil Contract Chaos, CME Group Secures $7 Billion Credit Line “In Case Of Clearing Member Default”

Something unusual is coming…

First we had unprecedented dysfunction in the gold futures markets with dramatic paper and physical price divergences amid virus-inspired geographical shortages for deliverables.

“I’ve never seen that before,”said one gold trader who has been in the market for 30-plus years.

Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, observed that a lockdown is occurring in two biggest gold hubs in the world, New York and London, so many traders are working from home. “This has caused a breakdown in the marketplace”,he said.

“There is no price discovery in the market right now,”he said Tuesday morning. “If you need to borrow gold in the OTC [over-the-counter] markets right now, you are going to pay a king’s ransom.”

Then we had the even more stunning negative prices for front-month WTI crude futures as prices converged to negative spot prices at expiration/delivery, thanks to a lack of storage and ETF-driven illiquidity issues. This sparked major losses for some very large market brokerages and clearing houses, among them, Interactive Brokers:

CNBC: “Across the industry, do you think there is going to be some really serious pain?”

Peterffy: “There is about another half a billion dollars of losses that somebody is sitting on… and I do not know who those folks are.”

So, it is with great interest that we note that CME Group said its Chicago Mercantile Exchange subsidiary entered into an amended credit facility for a $7 billion revolving secured credit facility.

As Bloomberg reports, in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, CME it entered into an amendment to its 364-day multi-currency credit facility with Bank of America N.A., as administrative agent, Citibank N.A., as collateral agent and collateral monitoring agent and some of the banks under its existing facility.

The amended facility is for a multi-currency revolving secured credit facility of $7 billion, which is eligible to be increased to $10 billion.

Specifically, the filing says, the new credit facility is“intended to provide temporary liquidity to CME in the event of a clearing member default, a liquidity constraint or depositary default, or in the event of a delay in the payment systems utilized by CME.”

Of course, this is nothing to worry about as we are sure The Fed has their back… right?

end

It sure looks like somebody has or is close to defaulting….

CME Group has prepared for clearing member defaults for some years now

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2020-05-01 16:19. Section: Daily Dispatches

12:18p ET Friday, May 1, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Yesterday’s MarketWatch report about the “credit facility” arranged by CME Group, operator of the major U.S. futures exchanges, to cover defaults by clearing members of its exchanges —

http://gata.org/node/20108

— does not necessarily mean that any of its exchanges are at immediate risk of such defaults.

The report appears to have been prompted by CME Group’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission a notice of an amendment to the “credit facility”:

https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=14108931&RcvdD…

A previous filing indicates that CME Group has had such a “credit facility” at least since 2017:

http://investor.cmegroup.com/node/43841/html#d732408dex101.htm

According to the filings, many big international banks are providing the credit. That might imply that the stable operation of CME Group’s futures exchanges is considered vital to the world financial system, or at least to those big international banks themselves.

What is the new amendment changing about the credit being extended to CME Group, and is there anything especially notable about the timing?

GATA could ask CME Group to explain this but we’re still waiting for a reply to our inquiry of a couple of weeks ago as to why the new Comex gold futures contract offering the option of “delivery” via a certificate for a quarter interest in a 400-ounce bar wasn’t even trading after being touted as the solution to the recent unusual disparity between gold prices in New York and London.

…

As of yesterday, according to CME Group’s data, the open interest in the new 4GC contract is only one:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold-enhanced-delivery_…

But then what would the gold market be without its incongruities, mystery, and deception?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Kitco analyst denies market manipulation but fails to address even one document of it

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2020-05-01 03:01. Section: Daily Dispatches

11p ET Thursday, April 30, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

For 20 years GATA has been striving, against the opposition of mainstream financial news organizations, to prove a truism — that governments manipulate markets, often surreptitiously, especially the monetary metals markets and the gold market particularly. Now that governments are doing more manipulation openly, buying huge amounts of nearly every sort of asset to reflate prices, maybe our adversaries will try to construe that as repudiation of our work

But it has been a long time since we have seen a denial of market manipulation as sweeping as what was offered today by Kitco’s market analyst, Todd “Bubba” Horwitz. In his commetary headlined “Gold And Silver Manipulation Opinions — Who Cares?” —

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-30/Gold-and-silver-manipulati…

— Horwitz writes:

“For years it has been thought that there is manipulation in the metals market. The conspiracy theorists are once again out in force spewing their ignorance about markets being manipulated. All markets need a buyer and a seller to complete a trade; how can that process be manipulated? Price discovery is another component of a trade. That is where a buyer and seller meet; where is the manipulation?”

Where is the manipulation? A few examples come mind, as when governments acting through intermediary brokers flood a futures market with sell orders to panic weak-handed longs into selling and then cover on lower prices. Or when governments sell futures into a rally to slow it down and cash-settle the contracts as necessary, governments being able to create and deploy infinite money in secret. Or when government brokers just trade among themselves to create the illusion of market trading.

This stuff is no mere “conspiracy theory.” It is longstanding government policy and practice amply documented.

But apparently Horwitz has never heard of the Central Bank Incentive Program of the CME Group, which operates the major futures markets in the United States. Under the program governments and central banks get discounts for surreptitiously trading futures. The Central Bank Incentive Program is acknowledged on the CME Group’s internet site and in filings with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

http://www.gata.org/node/14385

http://www.gata.org/node/18925

Why are governments and central banks surreptitiously trading futures if not to manipulate markets?

Horwitz also does not seem to have heard of the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central bank and their primary gold broker. The footnotes of the monthly statements of account of the BIS, analyzed by GATA consultant Robert Lambourne, disclose gold trading every month, but the BIS won’t say whom this trading in done for and for what objectives:

http://www.gata.org/node/19916

But at a conference at BIS headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, in 2005, the head of the BIS monetary and economic department, William R. White, did explain it. A major purpose of international central bank cooperation, White said, is “the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful”:

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

That’s no mere “conspiracy theory.” That’s conspiracy fact.

Indeed, the BIS actually advertises to potential central bank members that its services include secret interventions in the gold market. Here’s a slide from a PowerPoint presentation the bank made to prospective central bank members at BIS headquarters in Basel in June 2008:

http://www.gata.org/node/11012

When government agents get together in secret to formulate and implement a course of action, that’s the very definition of conspiracy. The BIS’ board of directors meets in secret every month in Basel and it is not to make sure that the gold market is free of manipulation by governments.

More explanation of gold market intervention policy was provided by a secret report by the staff of the International Monetary Fund in March 1999, which confirmed that central banks conceal their gold swaps and leases to facilitate their secret interventions in the gold and currency markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

That report isn’t conspiracy theory. It’s more conspiracy fact.

Perhaps most timely in this respect is the refusal of the CFTC to answer, even when asked by a member of Congress, whether the commission has jurisdiction over manipulative futures trading by the U.S. government or its agents and whether the commission is aware of futures trading by the U.S. government or its agents or by other governments:

http://gata.org/node/20089

The answer to the latter question should be obvious, since CME Group has reported its Central Bank Incentive Program to the commission. But the commission refuses to acknowledge what is in its own files.

GATA has so much more documentation constituting conspiracy fact. Most illuminating is the transcript of a meeting in U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s office in April 1974 in which an assistant explains to Kissinger why the United States must continue to push gold out of the world financial system. The transcript remains on the internet site of the State Department’s historian:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

Horwitz asked today: “Where is the manipulation?”

It is all around him if only he will look. But to deny manipulation while refusing to look isn’t market analysis. It is disinformation. That is, Horwitz means to deceive, as does Kitco. Fortunately they’re not very clever about it, but even so they are abusing the newcomers to the sector, who are easier to cheat when they don’t know what’s really going on.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Iran is receiving gold for its purchases of gasoline from Venezuela.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Iran is hauling gold bars out of Venezuela’s almost-empty vaults

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2020-05-01 04:16. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Patricia Laya and Ben Bartenstein
Bloomberg News
Thursday, April 30, 2020

Out of cash and desperate for help in propping up its oil industry, Venezuela is raiding its gold vaults and handing tons of bars to its long-time ally Iran, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Government officials piled some 9 tons of gold — an amount equal to about $500 million — on Tehran-bound jets this month as payment for Iran’s assistance in reviving Venezuela’s crippled gasoline refineries, the people said. The shipments, which resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela’s published foreign reserve figures, leave the crisis-ravaged country with just $6.3 billion in hard-currency assets, the lowest amount in three decades.

…

The two nations — both pariahs of sorts in international circles — are working more closely together as they try to withstand withering U.S. sanctions and a coronavirus-sparked collapse in the price of oil, their main source of revenue. For Iran, the deals provide a fresh source of revenue. For Venezuela, they ensure that its supply of gasoline doesn’t totally run out. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/iran-is-hauling-gold-…

* * *

END

Ronan Manly explains how the LBMA is ignoring market conditions in the pricing of gold/silver and thus shortchanging investors

(Bullionstar/GATA

Ronan Manly: LBMA gold price benchmark ignores market conditions and shortchanges investors

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2020-05-01 04:47. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
BullionStar.com, Singapore
Thursday, April 30, 2020

As the gaping spread between London/LBMA spot gold prices and front-month COMEX gold futures prices persists for a sixth week triggered by the bullion bank exchange-for-physicals liquidity blowup on March 23, one unappreciated aspect of this gold price discovery scandal is that daily London LBMA Gold Price auctions are deliberately ignoring Comex gold prices when setting the opening price (starting price) in the twice-daily gold price auction.

By ignoring the much-higher Comex gold futures prices while setting the LBMA gold auction starting price, the auction administrator — the Intercontinental Exchange Benchmark Administration — is ignoring current market conditions in the gold market. (A stated methodology of the auction is to use current market conditions.)

…

The LBMA Gold Price auction is thus shortchanging global gold market participants and investors who all use the LBMA Gold Price benchmark (the final price from the auction) as a critical reference rate.

The motivation? To take the spotlight off the fact that the London spot gold market is broken and that the LBMA market makers have liquidity problems. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-gold-price-benchmark-…

iii) Other physical stories:

Silver has never been this cheap in the 5,000 years of human history

(Simon Black)

Silver Hasn’t Been This Cheap In 5,000 Years Of Human History

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

More than 4,000 years ago, the city of Kanesh was quickly becoming an important commercial trading hub within the ancient Assyrian Empire.

Kanesh was located in the dead center of modern day Turkey, so it was perfectly situated on the route between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, and between Europe and Asia Minor.

As a result, Kanesh became a popular trading post. And merchants, scribes, and moneylenders from all over the Assyrian Empire traveled there to profit from the boom in copper, tin, and textiles.

What’s extraordinary about this period of history is how many records remain from those day-to-day transactions.

The Assyrians borrowed the writing system from ancient Mesopotamia and routinely chiseled their commercial trades on clay ‘cuneiform’ tablets.

Tens of thousands of these tablets have been discovered by modern archaeologists, so we have an incredible amount of detail about ancient financial transactions.

For example, one tablet on display at the Met in New York City documents the terms of a loan that originated in Kanesh some time in the 19th century BC.

According to the table, an Assyrian merchant named Ashur-idi loaned 3kg of silver to two traders, with 1/3 of the amount to be repaid in one year’s time.

This was fairly common back then: gold and silver were both used as a medium of exchange in ancient times. But this was before coins existed, so transactions would be settled based on weight.

In ancient Babylonia, for instance (which rose to power after the Assyrian Empire faded), the cuneiform tablets from that era tell us that the price of barley averaged about 17 grams of silver per 100 quarts.

And merchants would use elaborate scales to weigh gold and silver when exchanging their goods.

Gold and silver were also exchangeable for each other. Another tablet from ancient Babylonia during the time of Nebuchadnezzer states that 5 shekels of silver were worth ½ shekel of gold.

(A shekel in ancient times was a unit of weight, equivalent to about 8.33 grams.)

This implies a 10:1 ratio between silver and gold.

We’ve discussed this ratio several times; the gold/silver ratio has existed for thousands of years, and up until the 20th century, it remained within that ancient range of between 10 to 20 units of silver per unit of gold.

In modern times, gold and silver are no longer used as a medium of exchange. But there’s still been a long-standing ratio that has persisted for decades.

One ounce of gold has typically been valued at 50 to 80 ounces of silver. Rarely does the ratio go higher (or lower). And when it has, prices have always corrected.

As of this morning the ratio is 112, meaning it now takes 112 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold; and today’s level is spitting distance from the ratio’s all-time high of 120, which it reached last month.

And when I say “all-time high,” I mean it. Ancient cuneiform tablets prove that silver has never been so cheap relative to gold in literally thousands of years of human history.

If history is any guide, this means that the ratio should eventually narrow, i.e. the price of silver should rise and/or the price of gold should fall, bringing the ratio back to its more normal range.

And there are plenty of ways to potentially make money from this.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, for example, offers a financially-settled futures contract for traders to speculate on the Gold/Silver ratio.

But the CME’s gold/silver ratio contract is very thinly traded and difficult to purchase, so it might not be the best approach.

In theory, one way to speculate that the gold/silver ratio will return to historic norms would be to ‘short’ gold contracts and go ‘long’ silver contracts, i.e. speculate that the price of gold will fall while the price of silver will rise.

But, personally, there’s no chance I would bet against gold right now.

I’ve written for the past several weeks that I approach this entire pandemic from a position of ignorance and uncertainty.

EVERY possible scenario is on the table, and no one can say for sure what’s going to happen next.

There are very few things that are clear. But in my view, one thing that has become clear is that western governments will print as much money as it takes to bail everyone out.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US federal government will post a $3.6 TRILLION deficit this Fiscal Year due to all the bailouts. Plus the Federal Reserve has already printed $2 trillion.

Frankly I think they’re just getting started.

With this incomprehensible tsunami of government debt and paper money flooding the system, real assets are a historically great bet.

We’ve talked about this before: real assets are things that cannot be engineered by politicians and central banks– assets like productive land, well-managed businesses, and yes, precious metals.

And they all tend to do very well when central banks print tons of money.

Farmland, for example, was one of the best performing assets during the stagflation of the 1970s.

And financial data over the past several decades shows that whenever they print lots of money, the price of gold tends to increase.

Right now, in fact, the price of gold is relatively cheap compared to the current money supply.

And the price of silver is ridiculously cheap compared to gold. Again, silver has never been cheaper in 5,000 years.

This is why I’d rather just own physical silver. I’m not interested in betting against gold because I expect they’ll continue to print money. In fact I’m happy to buy more gold.

And while we cannot be certain about anything, there’s a strong case to be made that the price of silver could soar.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Dawn Giel | Dan Mangan

Published 3:33 PM ET Tue, 20 Nov 2018 Updated 10:32 AM ET Wed, 21 Nov 2018CNBC.com

Amr Alfiky | Reuters

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market

(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2019-03-05 14:40. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

…

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0623/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1253 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 37.64 POINTS OR 1.33%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 67.63 POINTS OR 0.28%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 574.54 POINTS OR 2.84%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/MAY DAY HOLIDAY/

USA dollar index UP TO 98.97/Euro RISES TO 1.0977

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.67/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 19.66 and Brent: 26.98

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.59%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.72%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.36: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.14

3k Gold at $1679.10 silver at: 14.80 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 106/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.32

3m oil into the 19 dollar handle for WTI and 26 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.67 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9623 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0567 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.59%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.26%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 7.0120..

Futures Tumble, Dollar Surges After Trump Threatens To Restart China Trade War

With most global markets shutdown for May 1 celebration, US equity futures sank after President Donald Trump threatened to block a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese stocks and to slap new tariffs on China over the coronavirus crisis, while Apple and Amazon became the latest companies to warn of more pain in the future. As a result, the Emini wiped out virtually all of the weekly gains in one session.

Late on Thursday, Trump said his trade deal with China was now of secondary importance to the pandemic, as his administration crafted retaliatory measures over the outbreak. The threat confirmed that the global pandemic was now a top political issue for Trump who will seek to bash China as the US heads for the November election, and pulled attention back to the trade war between the world’s two largest economies that has kept global financial markets on tenterhooks for nearly two years.

Also weighing on sentiment was a 2.6% fall in Apple shares in premarket trading after the company said it was impossible to forecast overall results for the current quarter, even as it reported upbeat quarterly results. Amazon tumbled 5% after it warned it could post its first quarterly loss in five years as it was spending at least $4 billion in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

With European markets closed, equities dropped in the U.K., one of the few open markets, and the pound gave back some of this week’s gains as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged a “comprehensive plan” to lift the country’s lockdown, with details due next week. Stocks slumped in Tokyo and Sydney while most other Asian markets didn’t trade. While China was closed, China FTSE A50 Index futures, which trade in Singapore, were down over 4% as traders didn’t much like that a new trade war between the US and China may be imminent.

Wall Street fell on Thursday as grim economic data and mixed earnings prompted investors to take profits at the end of the S&P 500’s best month in 33 years, a remarkable run driven by hopes of reopening the economy from crushing virus-induced restrictions.

With global stocks posting their best month since 2011 in April spurred by a slowdown in coronavirus infections and $8 trillion promised in stimulus initiatives, earnings reports and economic data are serving a reminder of lasting pain. In addition to the disappointing earning reports from Amazon and Apple, data Friday showed South Korea’s exports plunged the most since the 2009, while a gauge of Japanese manufacturing did the same.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed for the first time in six days on the prospect of a renewed trade war, while the yen and Treasuries also gained on haven demand. The offshore yuan was among the biggest decliners in emerging markets, weakening by the most in a month.

Yuan derivatives – the Australian and New Zealand dollars – led losses among Group-of-10 currencies following poor local economic data. The euro rose a third day to a two-week high, extending Thursday’s rally that was fueled by month-end demand.

In rates, Treasuries gained in a bull- flattening move, with 10- and 30-year yields falling by 4 basis points.

Crude dipped on Friday but heading for its first weekly gain in about a month as global production cuts began to take effect; gold rebounded from an earlier slump.

Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is a slightly lighter one thanks to the Labor Day public holiday in numerous countries. Data highlights include April’s manufacturing PMIs from the UK, Canada and the US, as well as April’s ISM manufacturing reading for the US as well. In addition to this, we’ll get the UK’s consumer credit and mortgage approvals for March, along with US construction spending for March too. Earnings releases include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, AbbVie and Honeywell International. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil reported its first loss in 32 years.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 2% to 2,845.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 338.02
MXAP down 1.6% to 145.64
MXAPJ down 1.1% to 473.45
Nikkei down 2.8% to 19,619.35
Topix down 2.2% to 1,431.26
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 24,643.59
Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,860.08
Sensex up 3.1% to 33,717.62
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 5% to 5,245.89
Kospi up 0.7% to 1,947.56
Brent Futures down 1.5% to $26.08/bbl
Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,675.82
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.02% to 99.00
German 10Y yield fell 9.1 bps to -0.586%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0970
Brent Futures down 1.5% to $26.08/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.589%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 7.6 bps to 0.723%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

The euro-area economy could shrink as much as 12% this year and fail to return to its pre-coronavirus size until the end of 2022, according to the European Central Bank
President Donald Trump is exploring blocking a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese equities considered a national security risk, a person familiar with the internal deliberations said
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged a “comprehensive plan” to lift the lockdown that has crippled the economy, as he declared the U.K. has now passed the peak of the coronavirus outbreak. In his first press conference since recovering from Covid-19, Johnson promised to set out details next week on how businesses can get back to work
The European Central Bank’s surprise tweaks to monetary policy amount to an effective interest-rate cut that puts banks on the front line of the euro-area economic recovery
U.K. house prices rose last month before the full extent of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic hit the market, according to Nationwide Building Society
The best month for global equities in almost a decade may be enough to convince investors the light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel isn’t a train, but the debate on what comes next is only just beginning as they adjust their focus to a financial landscape utterly changed by the pandemic

The tone in Asia was subdued owing to the mass closures in the region for Labor Day and following the negative handover from Wall St due to month-end rebalancing and with futures pressured after hours following mega-cap earnings from Amazon and Apple. Amazon shares declined around 5% in extended trade after mixed results in which the Co. missed on EPS but topped revenue forecasts and noted it expects to spend its entire USD 4bln of operating profit on COVID-related expenses, while Apple initially gained after it beat on top and bottom lines, boosted its share buyback by USD 50bln and raised its dividend, although the gains were only brief as the results were clouded by weaker than expected iPhone and iPad sales and after the tech giant refrained from providing a Q3 outlook. ASX 200 (-5.1%) was the laggard with downside led by heavy losses in the commodity related sectors and a slump in the top-weighted financials with selling exacerbated by profit taking after the index had rallied to its highest level in 6 weeks and notched its best month on record for April. Nikkei 225 (-2.8%) also suffered firm losses amid a slew of earnings and after Tokyo Core CPI data turned negative to trigger fears of a return to deflation, while reports also noted that PM Abe is to formally decide to extend the state of emergency due to coronavirus on Monday. As a reminder, markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were shut alongside most of the regional bourses, although China’s tensions with US remained in the spotlight after comments from US President who suggested he has seen evidence the virus had originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and that he can do tariffs to respond to China, with sources also later noting the US is considering blocking government retirement savings funds from investing in Chinese equities deemed a national security risk. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid spillover selling from T-notes which had reversed intraday gains and briefly fell below 139.00 amid heavy supply including Boeing’s USD 25bln 7-tranche offering, while JGB prices were also hampered by weaker demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr, 5yr, 10yr & 20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

Macau Casinos See Worst Month Yet as Gaming Revenue Plunges 97%
SUVs Get Parked in the Sea and Reveal Scope of Auto Glut
Stampede to Buy Euros at End-of-Month Fix Rattles FX Trading
Biggest India Carmaker Clocks Zero Local Sales in April

Europe sees tumbleweeds amid mass closures in observance of Labor Day Holiday, as the UK’s FTSE 100 (-2.1%) remains the sole trading major index ahead of its market holiday next Friday. Sentiment remains on the backfoot, Nasdaq and Dow futures relinquished the 8800 and 24000 levels respectively before extending losses, as markets price in an escalation in US-Sino tensions after US President Trump threatened tariffs, whilst negatively perceived earnings from Apple (-3% pre-mkt) and Amazon (-4.5% pre-mkt) add further pressure to US equity futures. Apple beat on top and bottom line, but iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales fell short of forecasts. Amazon missed on EPS but topped revenue forecasts, albeit subscription services disappointed and the group expects to spend the entire USD 4bln of operating profit on virus-related expenses. Back to London, FTSE 100 sees most of its stocks in the red, with heavyweight Shell (-6%) continuing to be weighed on by its dividend cut alongside a broker downgrade and the pullback in the energy complex, BP (-4%) moves lower in tandem. Large-cap miners also reside towards the foot of the UK index as base metals take a hit from sentiment amid the prospect of escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies: with Rio Tinto -3.7%, Glencore -5.3%, BHP -4%. On the flip side, RBS (+3.4%) is among one of the few gainers post-earnings after topping earnings and operating profit forecasts and despite Q1 impairments rising almost ten-fold YY to GBP 802mln from GBP 88mln.

Top European News

Ryanair Cuts 3,000 Jobs, Challenges $33 Billion in State Aid
Boris Johnson Pledges Lockdown Exit Plan With U.K. Past Peak
Intu Drafts in Restructuring Chief as Talks With Creditors Loom
ECB Says Economy Could Stay Below 2019 Level Through 2022

In FX, there was little respite for the Dollar in holiday-thinned volumes at the start of the new month due to Labour Day, but the DXY is clinging to or at least staying within sight of 99.000 by virtue of even more weakness in rival currencies amidst broad risk-off sentiment following US President Trump’s latest accusatory comments regarding COVID-19 and threat of reprisals against China, including more trade tariffs.

GBP – Not the biggest G10 mover by a long chalk, but volatile given that the UK is one of the only European centres open on May 1st. Moreover, some payback after hefty month end gains has ensued, with Cable backing off further from 1.2600+ highs after failing to sustain momentum to test mid-April peaks and a key technical level in the form of the 200 DMA (1.2648 and 1.2654 respectively). Meanwhile, the Pound is also unwinding more upside vs the Euro as the cross rebounds further from sub-0.8700 levels towards 0.8750 and back above the 200 DMA yet again (now around 0.8722) on the usual RHS for fixing dynamic. For the record, an even weaker than prelim manufacturing PMI, collapse in consumer credit and miss in mortgage approvals were all largely brushed aside, along with significantly stronger than forecast Nationwide house prices.
AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK/SEK – The major laggards, and in the case of the Aussie and Kiwi also the notable underperformers as overall aversion is compounded by a bearish research note from Westpac overnight. In short, the bank based its bleak outlook for the Antipodeans on prospects of ‘brutal’ earnings and data in coming weeks, and on that note AIG manufacturing PMI plunged deep below 50, while ANZ consumer confidence dropped to sub-100. Aud/Usd has duly retreated from 0.6500+ to under 0.6450 and Nzd/Usd has lost grip of the 0.6100 handle with Aud/Nzd pivoting 1.0600. Elsewhere, the Loonie has detached further from its close crude correlation, albeit with oil prices recoiling this is also keeping Usd/Cad afloat near 1.4050 vs 1.3850 at one stage on Thursday, pending the possible appointment of a new BoC Governor later today and Canada’s manufacturing PMI. Similarly, the Scandinavian Crowns have been scuppered by the downturn in crude and risk appetite, with Eur/Nok and Eur/Sek both nudging the tops of ranges near 11.3300 and 10.7500 respectively.
JPY/CHF/EUR – All benefiting from the aforementioned ongoing Buck weakness, as the Yen bounces from circa 107.40, Franc eyes 0.9600 and Euro grinds closer to 1.1000 having breached the 55 DMA (1.0949) and yesterday’s best (1.0972) to expose resistance at 1.0991 before the 200 DMA (1.1035).
EM – The ramp up in US vs China vitriol over the coronavirus has obviously taken its toll on the Yuan, as Usd/Cnh extends beyond 7.1300, but the contagion is spreading through the region like the global pandemic itself with Usd/Try up around 7.0400, Usd/Rub back over 75.0000 to name and highlight just a few.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures gave up earlier mild gains as the positive sentiment seen earlier in the week peters out, whilst a lion’s share of market closures in Asia and Europe keep volumes subdued. Today marks the official inauguration of the OPEC+ output curtailment pact, albeit markets have already priced in the event. “The output cuts while significant may not be enough to fully offset demand destruction in the global market in the short term and the inventory build-up could continue for the rest of 2Q20, though at a slower pace”, ING reaffirms. That being said, reports noted that Iraq could face difficulties in adhering to its obligations under the deal. WTI June trades on either side of USD 19/bbl for a large part of the session before dipping below the psychological USD 18.50/bbl (high USD 20.50/bbl), whilst Brent July also resides closer to the bottom of its current USD 27.67-29.67/bbl intraday band. Spot gold remains on the backfoot sub USD 1700/oz, with some attributing a correction amid a lack of fresh buyers. Copper continues its deterioration throughout the session on the risk-averse tone and absence of regional participants including its largest buyer China – prices eye the 24th Apr low at USD 2.30/lb.

US Event Calendar

9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 36.7, prior 36.9
10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. -3.5%, prior -1.3%
10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 36, prior 49.1
Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 7m, prior 11.4m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy 1st of May to you all. We’ve already published our monthly performance review in what was the best month for the S&P 500 since January 1987. It was on track to be the best since October 1974 until the mild sell off yesterday. See the note in your inboxes for more on an incredibly strong month for asset returns in a period where the world economy practically ground to a standstill. Impressive stuff. Try explaining that to a new graduate. You’d probably want to send them towards a chart of the Fed balance sheet to help try to rationalise it.

Talking of central banks, yesterday’s main news came from the ECB, who in many ways reverted to type. They always pull out the heavy artillery in the heat of the battle but tend to retreat a bit when hostilities calm down. Although they announced that the interest rate on TLTRO III operations from June 2020 to June 2021 would be reduced to 50bps below the refi rate they didn’t increase PEPP (not expected at this stage) and most importantly downplayed the chances of OMT being used. Before we discuss the OMT we should note that for those banks whose net lending is above the lending performance threshold, the interest rate falls to 50bps below the average deposit facility rate, which is itself 50bps below the main refinancing rate. Furthermore, the ECB announced a new series of non-targeted pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations, which will start in May 2020.

The conclusion is that its lots of free money for banks, especially if they can lend it out. However the net impact was disappointment for European equities (including banks) as Lagarde downplayed the imminent use of the OMT and argued that the PEPP is the weapon of choice. The main issue with this is that OMT can be used more efficiently to divert from capital keys and help the likes of Italy. They may end up having to do more now with PEPP than they would have with a combination of OMT and PEPP. See Mark Wall’s piece on the meeting here. As a result of the meeting, the main European equity bourses were -2 to -2.25% lower with banks -5.5%.

Core sovereign debt rallied with yields on 10yr bunds falling by -9.1bps to a 7-week low of -0.586%. 10yr spreads widened somewhat in southern Europe however, particularly for Italy, where the spread over bunds was up +9.8bps, while Greece (+7.2bps) and Spain (+1.5pbs) also saw moves wider. The 2yr BTP/Bund spread was actually tighter which perhaps highlights not too much market concern over the ECB message. Over in the US, 10yr Treasury yields were down as much as 4.6bps to 0.58%, less than 5bps away from their all-time record closing low, before spiking higher in the US afternoon session to finish +1.2 bps higher at 0.639%.

Poor economic data along with negative earnings news saw equities give up their gains as we reached month-end, with the S&P 500 falling by -0.92% yesterday, while the VIX index of volatility, which had been trending downward from its highs in mid-March, saw its biggest increase in over a week, up +2.92pts to 34.15pts. Roughly 80% of the stocks in the index were lower on the day. Interestingly the two best performing subsectors in the US were Retailing and Technology Hardware. Both were led higher by their largest respective components, Amazon and Apple, which both reported after the close.

In terms of those earnings yesterday, Apple was down -2.59% after the market closed. This was even after the company saw quarterly earnings rise 1%, as CEO Tim Cook cited a drop in demand in late March/early April before rebounding in recent weeks. Though sentiment shifted more negative as the company declined to offer guidance for the first time in over ten years. Amazon was down -5.09% in after-hours trading after announcing a profit drop of 29% in the first quarter. The company offered a very wide range for operating income in the second quarter of a $1.5 billion gain to a $1.5 billion loss. The company is expecting to spend nearly $4 billion on “Covid-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe,” according to CEO Jeff Bezos.

Futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down -1.41% and -1.91% this morning respectively post those results. Those markets that are open in Asia this morning haven’t fared much better with the Nikkei down -2.49% and ASX -3.50%. In FX the dollar index is up a modest +0.12% while 10y Treasuries are down 2.2bps. The only data of note to flag this morning were the April export numbers in South Korea which revealed a larger than expected decline of -24.3% yoy (vs. -23.0% expected). That’s the biggest decline since May 2009.

Back to central banks, the Fed separately announced yesterday that it was expanding the scope and eligibility for its Main Street Lending Program. Businesses with up to 15,000 employees or up to $5bn in annual revenue are now eligible, an increase from before when it was up to 10,000 employees and $2.5bn in revenue. Furthermore, the minimum loan size for certain loans would go down from $1m to $500,000, and there’d also be a new loan option for more leveraged companies where lenders would retain a 15% share on loans.

The central bank moves came against the backdrop of some of the worst GDP stats we’ve seen in many years yesterday. Starting with the overall Euro Area number, Q1 saw the economy contract by -3.8% compared with the previous quarter, in line with expectations and the largest quarterly contraction since the formation of the single currency back in 1999. However as we’ve been saying, given the lockdowns only started at the end of the quarter in March, this actually gives an incomplete picture of the extent to which the economy has shrunk, and we’re not likely to see the largest moves in the data until Q2. Indeed, ECB President Lagarde said in her press conference yesterday that in a severe scenario, their Q2 forecast pointed to a contraction as large as -15%.

Looking at the country-by-country releases where we got them, the French economy saw a quarterly contraction of -5.8% (vs. -4.0% expected), the largest quarterly decline in the data series going back to 1949, and exceeding the -5.3% quarterly decline in Q2 1968 when the country was gripped by social unrest. Following the previous quarterly -0.1% decline, this means the French economy has now experienced two consecutive quarterly contractions, a measure which is often taken to be the definition of a recession. Over in Italy, the economy contracted by -4.7% (vs. -5.4% expected) and on a technical basis went into its 6th recession of the Euro era. This one will only be Germany’s 5th over the same period. Meanwhile the Spanish economy saw a -5.2% (vs. -4.3% expected) contraction.

The only one of the 4 largest Euro member states left to report GDP is Germany now, and given all three of the others above came in worse than the Euro Area average, this implies that Germany could well have done significantly better than the others when we get their data in a couple of weeks (our economists think maybe -1.5%). It’s also noticeable, if unsurprising given the virus struck Europe first, that the Euro Area did much worse than the US. The US number from the previous day of -4.8% was on an annualised basis, meaning that the comparable quarter-on-quarter contraction for the US was “only” -1.2%, much smaller than the -4.8% decline in the Euro Area.

Staying on the ECB and the Euro Area, the flash CPI estimate for April yesterday came in at +0.4%, which the lowest inflation print since September 2016, though still above the +0.1% reading expected. The main reason for the decline was energy prices, which fell by -9.6% compared with a year earlier thanks to the recent plunge in oil, and the core CPI component was at a higher +0.9%. And speaking of oil, yesterday saw yet another rebound in prices, with WTI up +25.10% at $18.84/barrel, bringing its gains over the last two sessions to +54.70%. Brent crude also advanced with a +12.11% increase to $25.27/barrel. There was also news that ConocoPhillips will cut output by over 400k barrels a day in June. Norway also said it will reduce production yesterday. With the Nordic country producing 250k less barrels a day in June and then cutting 134k barrels during the second half of the year.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US provided yet another sign of how the economy has continued to slide well into April. Initial claims were at 3.839m in the week to April 25, above the 3.5m consensus expectation, while the previous week’s reading was revised up by further 25k. While this is the 4th week in a row that the number has declined, down from a peak of 6.867m in late March, the total number of claims in the last 6 weeks now stands at over 30m. Given the pre-covid number of nonfarm payrolls in February stood at 152m, we’re looking at around 20% of the labour force having now sought unemployment benefits, so some shocking numbers, and all eyes will be on the jobs report for April coming out a week today, where it’s widely expected we could see the highest unemployment rate for the US since before WWII.

Concluding with the final data points now, and German retail sales in March fell by -5.6%, the biggest monthly decline since January 2007, while the number of jobless claims rose by 373k in April. In the US, personal spending fell by a record -7.5% in March, the largest in data going back to 1959, while personal income was down -2.0%. The MNI Chicago PMI fell further to 35.4, and French consumer spending in March saw a monthly decline of -17.9%, far exceeding the -5.8% reading expected.

To the day ahead now, and the calendar is a slightly lighter one thanks to the Labour Day public holiday in numerous countries. Data highlights include April’s manufacturing PMIs from the UK, Canada and the US, as well as April’s ISM manufacturing reading for the US as well. In addition to this, we’ll get the UK’s consumer credit and mortgage approvals for March, along with US construction spending for March too. Earnings releases include ExxonMobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, AbbVie and Honeywell International.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.64 POINTS OR 1.33% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.63 POINTS OR 0.28% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 4.87%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Soft bank in trouble as its international arm cuts 10% of its worldwide employees. The coronavirus sealed WeWork’s fate

(zerohedge)

SoftBank’s International Arm Cuts 10% Of Employees As Coronavirus Seals WeWork’s Fate

SoftBank may have succeeded in stiffing WeWork shareholders out of $3 billion, but the company recently informed shareholders that its loss for the fiscal year ended in March was even larger than it had anticipated, largely due to WeWork, though the company’s investments in Uber and a handful of other startups that failed or shut down over the last six months have also hurt.

With its debt trading deep in junk territory, the reputation of the company’s founder-chairman Masayoshi Son lies in tatters, as the coronavirus outbreak essentially sealed WeWork’s fate after a string of blowups among other SoftBank and Vision Fund portfolio companies.

In a matter of months, a man once heralded as the greatest momentum investor of a generation is just the guy who thought WeWork’s low-margin, hyper-cyclical core concept might be worth $54 billion. Even Goldman’s clients couldn’t swallow that one.

Now, SoftBank’s international arm is laying off 10% of its employees as it continues to try and cut costs after its worst run ever.

Here’s Bloomberg:

SoftBank Group International, an arm of SoftBank Group Corp. led by Marcelo Claure, has cut roughly 10% of its staff as part of a plan to operate more efficiently, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The reductions affected about two dozen employees in cities including San Carlos, California, and Miami, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified because they haven’t been made public. SoftBank Group International is prioritizing enabling its portfolio companies to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic in a stronger position, while continuing to make selective investments, the person said.

In addition to the job cuts, two managing partners of SoftBank’s $5 billion Latin America fund, Murtaza Ahmed and Andres Freire, voluntarily departed, one of the people said. Mike Bucy, an operating partner at the firm who had been appointed as WeWork’s chief transformation officer in November, also has left SoftBank of his own accord, the person said.

A SoftBank spokeswoman declined to comment.

SoftBank said this week it expects a wider net loss for the fiscal year ended in March, because of deeper struggles at one of its largest investments, office-sharing startup WeWork. The Japanese conglomerate expects to lose 900 billion yen ($8.4 billion), up from a previous estimate of about 750 billion yen.

Its Latin America fund has backed companies including Colombia-based delivery startup Rappi, Brazilian fitness company Gympass and Argentine financial-technology firm Uala.

For those who haven’t been following along lately, here’s a summary of what’s going on with the guidance, according to Pitchbook.

In light of steeper losses from its WeWork investment, SoftBank has again revised its annual guidance for the latest fiscal year.

The Japanese tech giant now expects a net loss of 900 billion yen (about $8.4 billion)—150 billion yen more than it announced over two weeks ago. SoftBank said its investment in WeWork, as well as its loan commitment and financial guarantee for the co-working company, was responsible for about 700 billion yen in losses.

The new guidance follows an announcement in mid-April, when SoftBank told investors it expects the value of its Vision Fund portfolio to drop 1.8 trillion yen. Earlier this month, WeWork sued SoftBank, its largest investor, for backing away from a $3 billion tender offer that SoftBank said would primarily benefit founder Adam Neumann and fellow investor Benchmark.

Many SoftBank-backed companies showed signs that they were struggling before the coronavirus pandemic; the crisis has only exacerbated those problems. In recent months, real estate tech startups Opendoor and Compass, construction tech provider Katerra and restaurant robot-maker Zume have each reportedly laid off hundreds of employees. And internet satellite company OneWeb has filed for Chapter 11 protection.

And you haven’t heard the worst part yet: It looks like there’s more pain to come as Masa Son pledges more of his personal fortune against the company’s debt, allowing him and his team to remain in control, so they can make more of the bad decisions that brought what had been a Japanese global champion to its knees.

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA LAST NIGHT

War of words between China and the uSA escalate. Trump weighs blocking retirement fund access to Chinese stocks. A good start

(zerohedge)

Yuan Crashes After Trump Weighs Blocking Retirement Fund Access To Chinese Stocks As War Of Words Escalates

Having tumbled yesterday on the first set of headlines reporting on the Trump administration’s plans to seek ‘COVID reparations’ amid accusations of Chinese ‘meddling’ in the US election (obviously not in favor of Trump), the Chinese yuan legged dramatically lower in this evening’s illiquid session which sees most of Asia closed for May Day, after Bloomberg reports that Trump is exploring blocking a government retirement fund from investing in Chinese equities considered a national security risk.

Trump made his initial threats from the Rose Garden at the White House Monday after he was pressed by a reporter over a German newspaper report suggesting that China should be issued a $160 billion invoice for the impact on Europe’s economy.

The president responded he had a “much easier” idea:

“We have ways of doing things a lot easier than that,” Trump told the coronavirus press briefing. “Germany’s looking at things, and we’re looking at things, and we’re talking about a lot more money than Germany’s talking about.”

“We haven’t determined the final amount yet. It’s very substantial,” Trump added, suggesting it would be significantly more than the $160 billion floated in German media.

Asked whether he was considering the use of tariffs or even a debt write-offs for China (something which Larry Kudlow vehemently rejected earlier on Thursday), Trump would not offer specifics.

“There are many things I can do,” he said. “We’re looking for what happened.”

Since then various plans have been proposed, but Trump escalated the war of words further, during an Oval Office interview with Reuters published Wednesday night, saying that he thinks that China is determined to see him lose the November election based on Beijing’s response to the coronavirus, and that he is considering various ways to punish the Chinese government which he he again blamed for allowing the virus to spread across the world.

“China will do anything they can to have me lose this race,” Trump said in the interview and said he was looking at different options in terms of consequences for Beijing over the virus. “I can do a lot,” he said.

Which was quickly followed by denials from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, saying that China has no interest in interfering in internal U.S. affairs (unless of course that ‘affair’ involves investigating the origin of COVID-19). China hopes some people in U.S. won’t drag country into its internal processes, Geng said.

And tonight, Bloomberg reports that, after months of pressure from concerned lawmakers, according to a person familiar with the internal deliberations, the Trump admin is planning an executive order to block a 2017 decision that The Thrift Savings Plan, the federal government’s retirement savings fund, would transfer a massive $50 billion to an international fund which would mirror the MSCI All-Country World Index.

The issue being China’s addition to the index, and thus the fund being forced to allocate significant capital to the Chinese stock markets, at a time when the gloves between the two nations are clearly off.

Needless to say, the optics of the US halting capital from entering China would be staggering and could result in a reversion of China-bound capital flows across all Western countries until the current war of words between Trump and Xi rages. The only problem is that, as we noted yesterday, this particular war of words could last a long time, since there is no longer any impetus to kiss and make up, and if anything, Trump will only escalate the anti-China sentiment into the election (and after), to keep pounding that the collapse resulting from the coronavirus pandemic is not his fault, but rather’s Beijing, even as China pursues a mirror image approach, blaming the US for launching the pandemic.

The most obvious market reaction for now is in Offshore Yuan which has collapsed in the last two days, extending losses tonight…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, much of Asia is on May-Day holiday so liquidity is low, but Yuan’s move is significant nevertheless…

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, applauded reports of the move in a statement Thursday.

“It’s outrageous that five unelected bureaucrats appointed by the previous administration have ignored bipartisan calls from Congress to reverse this short-sighted decision, and I applaud President Trump for directing his administration to take swift action preventing this from going forward,” he said.

We would expect China to be furious at this discussion and wonder what they will do to stall this move – one suggestion, given the weakness in US equity futures overnight, is to push volatility back into US markets – to shake the faith in the dramatic market rebound (that The Fed enabled).

end

CHINA/WHO

As expected, China refuses WHO request to take part in the coronavirus origin probe

(zerohedge)

China Refuses WHO Request To Take Part In Coronavirus Origin Probe

At a time when President Trump has officially accused the Wuhan Institute Of Virology of being the cause for the worst pandemic in modern history (as we did first all the way back in January), claiming he has seen evidence that the lab is in fact the origin, potentially exposing China to trillions in global damages and reparations, not to mention the ire of millions of people around the globe who have lost family or loved ones to the Wuhan Virus, one would think – if indeed it was as innocent as it claims – that China would do everything in its power to open up the Institute for the entire world to inspect and prove its innocence. In fact, one would even think China would even make Peng Zhou – whom we singled out in January and who is now being investigated by “the Five Eyes‘ for his role in the Wu Flu epidemic – accessible to the world to remove even the smallest trace of doubt his lab had anything to do with the coronavirus release.

One would be wrong.

As Reuters reports, the World Health Organization (WHO) – which as has already been demonstrated has been doing China’s bidding, PR and damage control ever since the pandemic emerged – has been refused an invitation to take part in a Chinese investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Almost as if China has something to hide even from the organization that it so explicitly control each and every day.

Sky News spoke to Dr Gauden Galea, the WHO’s representative in China, on Thursday who reported that China refused requests by WHO officials to participate in an investigation.

“We know that some national investigation is happening but, at this stage, we have not been invited to join,” Dr Galea was quoted as saying.

*Gauden Galea, WHO representative in China*

“WHO is making requests of the health commission and of the authorities… The origins of virus are very important, the animal-human interface is extremely important and needs to be studied.

He is right. And yet, even though the WHO has been exposed as China’s lapdog, China refuses to grant the only international health organization access. For some odd reason the WHO never bothered to ask “why”?

He said it was crucial to know “as much as possible” in order to prevent a “reoccurrence”. When asked by Sky News whether there was a good reason for the WHO to not be included in the investigation, Dr Galea said: “From our point of view, no”.

But from China’s… yes.

Dr Galea told Sky News that while WHO was confident the virus was “naturally occurring” – and once again, the WHO shows that it can’t even approach this most critical of tasks with an open mind and is already prejudicted by the pro-China position even though the US president himself today said he has seen evidence that virus indeed originated in the Wuhan lab – the laboratory’s logs would need to be “part of any full report, any full look at the story of the origins”. So far, WHO has not been able to investigate the logs, he said.

The WHO representative also said China would have to explain why no new cases of COVID-19 were reported in the country for a significant period of time in early January. Not that China would ever answer.

So while the “establishment” of pro-China healthcare workers and faux Facebook “fact checkers” such as the grotesque case of the borderline criminally conflicted Danielle Anderson, among those who have pushed the “conspiracy theory” that China knows more than its letting on about the virus – some three months after this website of course – are US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said the more transparent China is, the better.

Meanwhile, Trump has withdrawn funding from the WHO over concerns about its transparency and for placing too much trust in China.

As for China, the bigger question is not if Beijing is lying but when, if ever, it is telling the truth: even the pro-establishemnt, anti-Trump Associated Press reported earlier this month that China was aware of the virus’ seriousness and the possibility of human-to-human transmission days before warning citizens. But China maintains it acted swiftly to deal with the virus and has been transparent with both the WHO and other countries.

Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne has been one of the strongest advocates for a global inquiry into the virus, saying mid-April that Australia would “insist” on one. However, as we reported previously, demonstrating that Beijing won’t even accept being questioned let alone probed, China took offense to that, saying Australia was just parroting the views of the United States, while France, Britain and the European Union and threatened an import boycott.

Even tiny New Zealand, whose real estate market is largely at the whim of Chinese oligarchs, has expressed an interest in looking into how the pandemic occurred, but hasn’t specifically singled out reviewing China’s role. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern also signalled an inquiry should happen once the pandemic was over.

“There have been politicians around the world who have said, ‘Look, in the aftermath of this, we do need to look at what happened and whether or not there are areas we could as a global community improve our response’,” she explained last week. “I think that’s common sense. Of course, we want to make sure we learn from what has been a global pandemic that has shaken the globe in a way that none other has for many decades” she said in her most politically correct tone, desperate not to offend China.

Finally, confirming just how political any potential probe would be, a terrified NZ Foreign Minister Winston Peters said on Tuesday that he trusted China wouldn’t punish New Zealand for taking part in an inquiry.

“It is very hard to conceive, no matter what country it is, of there not being a desire from every country around the world – including the country of origin – for an investigation to find out how this happened,” he said, adding laughably “I’m not worried about [potential ramifications] because China has promised me they don’t behave that way.”

The funniest part about the bolded sentence is that he actually wasn’t kidding.

end

This is very scary!! dozens of patients in Wuhan have developed continual chronic infections even after supposedly eliminating the virus. They tested positive even though their symptoms disappeared. It sure looks like the HIV like symptoms are taking hold on some patients. They are also reporting some patients who are experiencing chronic infections and have not cleared the virus.

(zerohedge)

Dozens Of Patients In Wuhan Have Developed ‘Chronic’ Coronavirus Infections

A few weeks ago, we reported on several Reddit threads where COVID-19 patients from around the world – many of them young men – shared their struggles with a virus that they just couldn’t seem to shake. Some patients who were six or seven weeks post-confirmation (meaning they probably had contracted the virus two months earlier, or possibly even longer) complained of symptoms coming back in waves, while others complained that they were still testing positive for the virus weeks after their symptoms disappeared.

Though rare, these cases have alarmed researchers who fear that some patients might become chronic carriers of the virus. And the scientists leading China’s response to the outbreak are particularly concerned about dozens of apparently chronic patients in Hubei who still haven’t cleared the virus, even as the region – which was bolted shut during the outbreak crisis – slowly reopens to the outside world.

According to Chinese business newswire Caixin, more than 30 patients in Hubei Province have seemingly recovered from COVID-19, but continue to test positive, said Jiao Yahui, an inspector at the National Health Commission, in an April 24 interview with the state broadcaster.

Typically, patients infected with COVID-19 will test negative on nucleic acid throat swabs roughly 20 days after detection. However, for a small number of patients, throat swabs will produce positive tests for more than 40 days. Some patients are still producing positive swabs, despite being infected in the first wave of patients.

Of course, the existence of patients who still test positive raises the question of whether they are still infectious. It’s certainly possible that these tests might be picking up errant pieces of genetic material leftover from the infection, but it’s also possible that the virus could have burrowed deep enough to become chronic, though, as scientists say, that’s not ‘typical’ behavior for a naturally occurring coronavirus.

Hold that thought.

Scientists say there’s “little possibility” that humans can be lifelong carriers of this virus. But it’s not impossible.

Whatever the reality might be, infectious disease experts in China are recommending that these patients be kept in isolation in what we imagine has become a singularly hellish experience for these unfortunate patients.

Whether this is evidence of chronic infection, or simply an extended process of “viral shedding”, the issue has perplexed some of China’s greatest virologists.

Doctors in China and abroad are puzzled by some patients’ longer process of of viral shedding.In late March, a preprint essay by Wuhan military doctors Wang Qingshu and Niu Hongming discussed a patient who remained positive in virus tests for 49 days.

The patient, a middle-aged male, showed fever and other symptoms Jan. 25 but recovered after a week of medication. He tested positive for the virus Feb. 8 after one of his family members was confirmed with the infection. The man took ninenucleic acid tests in the following weeks, and only one test on March 11 showed negative.

He also received two antibody tests in late February and mid-March, reading positive for one form of immunoglobulin but negative for another. Such results suggest that the infection has lingered for a while and faded from the acute phase, the doctors wrote.

The patient received plasma therapy March 15, which involves transfusing antibody-rich blood components into patients. He had high fever hours after the infusion, but his temperature returned to normal the next day. His virus tests on the following two days turned negative.

“Without plasma therapy, this patient may turn to a chronic infection case,” the doctors wrote in the paper. “We want to know how many patients have similar situations.” The authors said they were unable to conclude whether such patients could infect others or how long their infections could last.”

The patient was part of a family cluster, the researchers wrote. One of his infected family members, an elderly female, also took a longer-than-normal period to test negative. The authors said the cases suggested that family-cluster infections may be less virulent but lead to longer periods for patients to resolve the virus.

What was that again about SARS-CoV-2 being a “man made” virus?

end

Michael Every…

Rabo: This Is How We Get To The “Unthinkable” 10-Handle In The Yuan

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

The ‘Clause is Cause’ Clause

As we had flagged repeatedly in recent days, US-China relations have suddenly deteriorated. US President Trump claims to have evidence that Covid-19 started in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Moreover, he is allegedly considering an executive order to prevent an initial USD 50bn of government retirement savings funds held by the Thrift Savings Plan being transferred to Chinese capital markets in line with the increased weighting China now has in the MSCI All Country World Index – something several members of Congress have been calling for. Other reports have it that trade advisor Navarro is pushing hard to onshore US manufacturing of key health goods as soon as possible by executive order – and is seeing ‘wait-and-see’ push-back from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnu-China. But recall this Thrift Savings Plan tug-of-war was being won by the doves until yesterday.

Meanwhile, the word “reparations” is actually being bandied about by some China hawks in DC, with one story even suggesting there were even White House plans to default on US debt to China as compensation. Larry Kudlow had to be wheeled out yesterday to deny that the US to do so. That’s like being in a dispute with your neighbour over the line of a fence and them calmly telling you “I can assure you that we don’t plan to burn your house down over this.” Is one reassured by that kind of thing or not? The hows and whys and ifs and maybes of what was once a crackpot leftfield is now out there actually being discussed on trading floors.

Beijing, and much of Asia, is out for the May Day holiday today so there is unlikely to be any kind of official Chinese reaction. However, where we have seen a knee-jerk response has been in USD/CNH, which at time of writing was at 7.1280 having been as low as 6.87 back in early January when the Phase One trade deal was on the table (and as we were saying “Don’t believe the hype”.) This is likely to put a serious dent in the head-scratching, math-defying risk-on rally we have seen for much of the week. Indeed, now month-end positioning is out of the way it has the potential to open up an entire new phase of USD buying vs. EM in particular – and this time CNY and CNH not being the exceptions.

This time last year, when we were all still going abroad regularly (right now just ‘outside’ is becoming a psychological barrier if I am honest) I was traveling with a presentation titled “Clause is Cause”. This argued that from a geostrategic ‘Von Clausewitz’ perspective, not a neoliberal “Let’s assume world peace” version, the US would at some point realise the USD/Eurodollar was a weapon it could wield vs. China, and when it did we would see three key strings cut: trade; tech; and then capital flows. The first was evident during the trade war – which has not been concluded is likely to get far worse soon; the second is also abundantly clear on a variety of fronts, much to Silicon Valley’s chagrin; and potentially, now we see the start of that third step – because if the US does block this first USD50bn going in, other such steps will follow, just as they did on the previously unthinkable idea of US tariffs on China.

CNH is right to be selling off, albeit in a traditionally limited fashion, because if you don’t buy from China and you don’t help China up the value-chain and you don’t invest in China then China is not going to be getting much USD liquidity at all. The US hawks probably don’t get the Eurodollar iron logic there; they are likely just pressing buttons in anger. The outcome would be the same nonetheless.

I can hear the market bulls and technocrats of the world saying “But China has USD3 trillion in reserves!” Perhaps. Most think it’s far lower than that. And not earning USD means you have to dig into that stockpile. And when you do, the PBOC either has to contract the local money supply (because every USD is backed by 7.xx CNY on the other side of the balance sheet) or it just creates new CNY anyway and supply-demand sees CNY move sharply lower – as we have been seeing in all other EM FX. Looking at the drop in BRL, ARS, ZAR, TRY, etc., or even THB,this would be how we would get to the ‘unthinkable’ 8 (9? 10?) handle in CNY. That would also crush those other EM crosses in tandem – and AUD and NZD, as the former tries to navigate its own geopolitical spat with Beijing.

I can also hear the market bulls and technocrats of the world saying “But the US relies on Chinese capital inflows!” Really? Really?! As the Fed is creating trillions of USD on its balance sheet with no end in sight, and with yields at historic lows, are you really going to try to peddle the myth that the US needs Chinese capital? It is flooded in cash – and has shown it can create it as needed. The only issue is how it is *distributed*. Do you seriously think US Treasuries are about to sell off from any Chinese action? In a risk-off geopolitical trade environment? With an activist Fed? Also, please recall the simple fact that Chinese (or any) capital inflows to the US are always the inverse of the export earnings they are getting from the US! If they don’t sell the exports, they don’t invest the capital. That was going to happen anyway in this downturn.

So that’s Von Clausewitz on the Eurodollar – but on good old fashioned US muscle, the picture is the same. It has been revealed by Reuters that Trump told Saudi Arabia that if they renefused to sign up to a deal to cut oil production that he would not stand in the way of Congress voting to remove US military protection from the country after 75 years. Recall that the Petrodollar deal was always that the Middle East could sell as much oil to the US as desired, but had to recycle the USD earnings back into the US. It’s just that now the US has shale… So guess who blinked? Not that it is working – so prepare for round two shortly.

Folks, please disabuse yourself of the naïve belief that we live one giant happy world market where supply and demand and acronyms are all that matter and where politics and national security are dinosaur anachronisms, but in a bloc run by people who fall almost entirely into that camp, despite also relying on US military support, yesterday saw the ECB meeting.

As GDP is seen falling -5% to -12% in 2020 the ECB: left the deposit rate unchanged at -0.50%, while keeping the refi rate at 0.00%; the existing asset purchase programmes were left unchanged, APP at EUR 20bn/month plus an EUR 120bn envelope, and PEPP at a total of EUR 750bn in 2020; the temporary discount on TLTRO-III was increased by 25bp and will now be priced at -50bp under the benchmark rate (either the refi or depo rate, depending on loan growth); and a new set of 7 Pandemic Emergency LTROs (PELTROs) was launched. These are priced at MRO -25bp and will run (in a staggered manner) between May 2020 and September 2021. As our ECB team conclude, it remains to be seen whether EURIBOR-OIS spreads will ‘normalise’; the ECB is taking a very open-minded stance; and they believe further action is still necessary. I think the latter at least is clear to most readers.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/VENEZUELA/USA

Pompeo demands countries block airspace to Iran

(zerohedge)

Pompeo Demands Countries Block Airspace To Iran’s ‘Terrorist Airline’ After Venezuela Deliveries

The US is going on the offensive once again against Venezuela, this time attempting to break up growing Iranian cooperation and assistance to Caracas. The two so-called ‘rogue states’ recently targeted for US-imposed regime change are helping each other fight coronavirus as well as Washington-led sanctions. Specifically Tehran has ramped up cargo deliveries related getting Venezuela’s derelict oil refineries fully operational.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in new statements has called on international allies to block airspace specifically for Iran’s Mahan Air, currently under US sanctions, and which has in recent days delivered cargoes of “unknown support” to the Venezuelan government, according to Pompeo’s words.

*Last year Mahan Air officially announced direct flights to Venezuela. Image via AFP*

Late last week it was revealed Venezuela received a huge boost in the form of oil refinery materials and chemicals to fix the catalytic cracking unit at the 310,000 barrels-per-day Cardon refinery, essential to the nation’s gas production.

Repair of the refinery is considered essential to domestic gasoline consumption, the shortage of which has recently driven unrest amid general food and fuel shortages, especially in the rural area.

Mahan Air is considered to have close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its deliveries to Caracas are expected to continue.

Pompeo demanded the flights “must stop” and called on all countries to halt sanctioned aircraft from flying through their airspace, and to further refuse access to their airports.

Mahan Air first came under sanctions in 2011 as Washington alleged it provided financial and non-financial support to the IRGC.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE

Robert to me:

Friday musing

We were told we had to lock down because there was not enough bed space to take care of the 2 million Americans who would die, according to the study funded by Bill Gates at Imperial College, in the UK. The press still regards Neil Ferguson as an exceptional forecaster, even though he has admitted he was wrong and the press defends Bill Gates like the second coming of Jesus because he hates Trump.

“Life must go on,” stated Quebec premier François Legault stated after reiterating the decision to open elementary schools in the region. He has a point being alive and solvent does have a cost/benefit analysis. Quebec has suffered more coronavirus-related cases than any other region of Canada, after losing 1,859 citizens and confirming 27,538 cases. This accounts for nearly half the death toll in the country as a whole. Still, certain indicators are showing that the curve is beginning to flatten in Canada, while outbreaks continue in Senior’s residences and more lately with the indigenous population.

In America the real job loss is approaching the 50 million mark. Something unthinkable only a few months ago. I have suggested the real losses are not in yet as the 2nd quarter losses for many companies will be twice that of the 1st quarter. Potentially 30% of all home owners in America will default on mortgages this year. And this says nothing about social costs that no one wants to address. Meanwhile, companies like Hertz prepare to seek bankruptcy igniting additional job loss as ramifications of a shut down economy spreads with te passage of time. It is no different in Canada where unemployment grows daily with widening repercussions.

What is most unsettling is the notion that many people believe the road back will be straight up in what people are calling a V curve recovery. I suggest that many companies will be weakened sufficiently during this shutdown period that the best that can be looked to is a U with a much longer time at the bottom than is expected. This too will produce employment causalities and many business will struggle either hampered by liquidity or simply a lack of people to tackle the challenges of returning back to maximizing growth opportunities.

In Canada, we will face a fallout from what seems an inevitable closure of many oil producers in Alberta causing national fallout of financial harm. Even the banks are having 2nd thoughts about the Alberta value story mid term. This will cause a further blow to an already weakened Canadian economy. If America can come back smartly it will give a much needed boost to homegrown issues. Even now questions are being asked about how much debt can Canadians take on.

The road back will be more twisted and difficult than anyone thought, when implementing shutdowns. And if there is a secondary threat, real or contrived in the fall another shutdown will destroy the economy to levels we have never seen. Hopefully, this nightmare will end shortly never to return.

Cheers

Robert

7. OIL ISSUES

Art Berman is one smart cookie: He claims that the game is over for oil and that will create havoc for the global economy

a must read…

Art Berman/OilPrice.com

Berman: Game Over For Oil… The Economy Is Next

Authored by Art Berman,

It’s game-over for most of the U.S. oil industry.

Prices have collapsed and storage is nearly full. The only option for many producers is to shut in their wells. That means no income. Most have considerable debt so bankruptcy is next.

Peggy Noonan wrote in her column recently that “this is a never-before-seen level of national economic calamity; history doesn’t get bigger than this.” That is the superficial view.

Coronavirus has changed everything. The longer it lasts, the less the future will look anything like the past.

Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening.

Energy is the economy and oil is the most important and productive portion of energy. U.S. oil consumption is at its lowest level since 1971 when production was only about 78% of what it was in 2019. As goes oil, so goes the economy…down.

The old oil industry and the old economy are gone. The energy mix that underlies the economy will be different now. Oil production and price are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change.

It’s Really Bad

2020 global liquids demand may average 20 mmb/d less than in 2019 (Figure 1). This estimate is really a thought experiment because it is impossible to know what supply and demand are in the present much less in the next quarter or beyond. This is a time of unimaginable flux and uncertainty because no one knows how long economic activity will be depressed, how long it will take to recover or if it will recover.

The estimate in Figure 1 differs from most forecasts in two important ways. First, I believe that supply will fall much faster than most other sources. That is because storage will soon be full and shutting in production will be the only option for many producers.

Figure 1. 2020 global oil demand may average 20 million barrels per day lower than in 2019.
Source: OPEC, IEA, Vitol, Trafigura, Goldman Sachs and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Second, I doubt that there will be a demand recovery in the third quarter despite the re-opening of businesses in the second. That is because we are in a global depression. Unemployment will remain high and consumers will be damaged from lack of income over the months of quarantine. The truth is that I doubt that demand will ever recover.

Economies will re-start slowly. A useful analogy is being at a traffic light behind 25 stopped cars. The light will change from green to red before your car begins to move. It may take several light changes before you get to the other side of the intersection.

U.S. consumption has fallen about 30% from 20 mmb/d in January to 14 mmb/d in April. Refinery intakes are already 25% lower than in the first quarter of the year and will fall further as consumption decreases. Refineries will close.

Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this.

The world’s natural resource extraction, shipping and distribution system relies on diesel. As refineries close and less diesel is produced, there will be lower levels of natural resource extraction, less manufacturing and less buying of goods.

Diesel cannot be produced without first producing gasoline. The U.S. has had a gasoline surplus since late 2014 and the current surplus is the highest in 5 years (Figure 2).

Figure 2. U.S. gasoline comparative inventory has increased 30 million barrels since March 20 to a record level of 28.4 million barrels more than the five-year average. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Diesel demand is less elastic than gasoline demand because of its critical role in heavy transport. What will happen to the excess produced gasoline if storage is full? Will it be burned?

Those who see an opportunity for renewable energy in the demise of oil need to think again. The manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars depend on diesel all along the supply chain from extraction to distribution of finished products. A world in economic depression will default to the cheapest and most productive fuels. Oil will be cheap and abundant for a long time. There will be little money or appetite for the massive equipment changes that renewable sources require. Climate change will not be high in the consciousness of people struggling to survive.

Figure 3 is another thought experiment in which I use tight oil rig count and output to estimate forward levels of U.S. production. The normal trajectory is an estimate of how production might decline as rigs are idled from lack of capital investment. It suggests that tight oil production might decrease by about 50% from 7 to 3.5 mmb/d by July 2021.

Figure 3. Thought experiment based on rig count through April 2020 and 12-month lagged production.
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA DPR, Drilling Info and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The shut-in trajectory suggests that tight oil production may fall below 3 mmb/d by June of this year. Since tight oil accounts for about 55% of U.S. output, total crude oil and condensate production could decline from 12 mmb/d to 5.5 mmb/d by the end of the first half of 2020. This estimate is much more aggressive than EIA forecasts because EIA hasn’t adequately modeled the speed of shut in production with full storage levels.

Energy is the Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption (Figure 4). That’s because oil is the economy. Every aspect of production and use of goods and services requires burning fossil energy. There are approximately 4.5 years of human labor in a barrel of oil (N. J. Hagens, personal communication and The Oil Drum). No other energy source comes close to that level of energy density.

Figure 4. Gross domestic product (GDP) is proportional to oil consumption
Source: EIA, World Bank and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books. You cannot fit 4.5 years of work from sunlight or wind into the 5.6 cubic feet space of a barrel of oil.

Seventeen investment analysts recently estimated that U.S. GDP would contract an average of 30-35% in 2020 (Figure 5) within a range of 9-50%. The correlation shown in Figure 4 suggests it will decrease by about 20-25% based on estimated decrease in U.S. oil consumption. Any value within this spectrum is catastrophic.

Figure 5. U.S. GDP to contract 30-35% in 2020 based on estimates by seventeen investment analysts
Source: Charles Schwab and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Economist Lawrence Summers has warned that the U.S. financial system may collapse because of cascading defaults. Approximately 25% of U.S. renters did not pay their landlords and 23% of Americans did not make their mortgage payment in April. When people don’t pay their creditors, creditors in turn cannot pay their creditors. For comparison, a 28% mortgage default rate contributed to the 2008 financial collapse.

Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.

Slouching Toward Bethlehem

Many will probably find my analysis overly pessimistic. Crude oil markets do not. Negative WTI futures prices last week could not have sent a stronger signal for producers to cease and desist.

Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over. The price of oil is too low to justify the cost of extraction even if storage were available. The value of a barrel of oil, however, is 4.5 man-years of work and that productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable.

The United States has engaged in the foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago. There was value up to the point that domestic oil substituted for imported light oil but exporting more was dumb. That is true especially now that someone else’s oil will be cheap to buy for years.

There are few moments when we may truly say that things are different now. This is one of those moments. We do not know what awful form the future may take, what rough beast slouches toward Bethlehem to be born.

The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.

I hope that we learn to view what is happening as a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice.

end

OIL RIG COUNTS

Oil rig counts continue to collapse. We may see the beginnings of shuts=ins which are extremely costly to our shale boys

a must read….

(zerohedge)

US Oil Rig Count Collapses As Wave Of Shale Well Closures Begins

For the 7th straight week, the US oil rig count has plunged (down 53 to 325). This is the biggest drop since the 2015 collapse and the same total oil rig count first seen in 2006…

And while U.S. shale oil producers have so far held up admirably, hanging on for dear life amidst the biggest oil demand collapse in history. the rig count collapse may signal more trouble ahead as American producers continued to pump at record highs in March, even after dozens of drillers laid out blueprints to limit production.

But, as OilPrice.com’s Alex Kimani notes, with U.S. storage about to hit tank tops in a matter of weeks and the world deep in the throes of the biggest pandemic in modern history, the inevitable has begun to unfold: The arduous and costly process of well shut-ins.

Oil production in the country tumbled sharply to 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April, a good 900,000 bpd less than the record peak of 13.1 million bpd recorded just a month prior. That’s a 7% production cut in the space of only a few weeks and the lowest level since July.

A lot more could be on the way.

More Production Cuts

Oklahoma-based Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), the company controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, has ceased all its shale operations in North Dakota and shut in most wells in its Bakken oil field totaling roughly 200,000 bpd.

The company, though, has refused to sell its contracted oil to pipelines at negative prices by declaring force majeure.

Continental has defended its stance by pointing out that the coronavirus outbreak has “…brought about conditions under which force majeure applies” while adding that selling its oil at negative prices constitutes waste.

Continental made the risky gamble of betting that economic growth would lift prices and, therefore, left itself heavily exposed to low oil prices by failing to employ the industry’s usual playbook of hedging future production with derivatives.

Continental is in good company, though.

Rystad Energy via CNBC has reported that six major U.S. shale producers will shut another 300,000 bpd of crude in May and June. That’s ~100,000 bpd more than April cuts, thus bringing the country’s total production cuts to 1.2 million bpd. The cuts will come from Continental Resources, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC), Enerplus Corporation (NYSE:ERF), Parsley Energy (NYSE:PE) and PDC Energy (NYSE:PDCE).

Continental Resources is set to slash 69,000 bpd in April and nearly 150,000 in May and June while ConocoPhillips will lower output by 125,000 bpd of oil equivalent, including 60,000 bpd of oil.

Rystad’s head of shale research, Artem Abramov, has estimated that the biggest shale fields–Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken–will cut a further 900,000 bpd, 250,000 bpd, and 400,000 bpd, respectively, throughout 2Q20, with shut-ins accounting for a staggering 60% in the early stages.

Expensive Shut-Ins

A well shut-in is considered a drastic action of last resort mainly because it can result in huge or even total loss of production.

That’s a big consideration in these dire times, where even oilfield values are descending into negative territory due to liabilities such as plugging wells and land remediation.

Chris Atherton, president of EnergyNet, a company that deals in oil and gas operations, undeveloped acreage and royalty interests, has told Forbes that oilfield prices have tumbled from an average price of $42,000 per net flowing barrel per day when oil prices were around $60/barrel to under $20,000 currently. Buyers started getting picky and sellers more desperate in 2019 when oil prices were still relatively high.

Things have gone to the dogs now, with a shut-in field fetching only half the price of a virtually identical field but with oil still flowing.

As Bob Bracket of Bernstein Research revealed last week, “Shut-ins are not easy decisions. When production shuts-in, problems arise. Multi-phase well flows begin to separate out, while problematic hydrates, waxes, asphaltenes form which will have serious economic implications,” citing numerous examples of fairly large wells with flows exceeding 1,000 barrels/day that could not be brought back to life after being shut-in.

That’s the main reason why even heavily indebted shale companies, including bankrupt ones like Whiting Corp. (NYSE:WLL), insist on continuing to pump at all costs.

California Resources Corp. (NYSE:CRC) is a $133.7M (market cap) company drowning in debt to the tune of more than $4 billion due by the end of 2022. The company’s average all-in cost per barrel of $35 means that it’s losing ~$20 for each barrel of crude it pumps. Yet, the company is unable to shut-in its wells because they require a continuous injection of steam to keep them alive.

Deal Mania

A shut-in well is a tough proposition for a prospective oilfield buyer, too, because it’s hard to determine how much oil can be coaxed out, especially after a lengthy layoff.

The only solace for the beleaguered oil sector is that there probably won’t be a shortage of takers when the worst is finally over.

Atherton says that his company has 40,000 registered users with access to $17 billion in cash ready to make deals. He has predicted that distressed companies will “turn into a flood of assets available” in a year or so.

The bottom hunters will certainly be waiting to pounce, the downside being that many investments in the space could turn worthless due to the swelling wave of bankruptcy.

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0977 UP .0033 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED/MAY DAY HOLIDAY

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.78 DOWN 0.600 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2532 DOWN 0.0050 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.4009 UP .0058 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro UP BY 33 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0977 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 37.64 POINTS OR 1.33%

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.63 POINTS OR 0.28%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 4,87%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED/MAY DAY HOLIDAY FOR MOST

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED/MAY DAY HOLIDAY FOR MOST

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 67.63 POINTS OR 0.28%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.64 POINTS OR 1.33%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 4.87%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 574.34 POINTS OR 2.84%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1679.10

silver:$14.80-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.61% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.26 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.97 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.81% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.02% DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.72%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,77 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 105 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.59% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.26% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0997 UP .0053 or 53 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.78 DOWN .479 OR YEN UP 48 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2515 DOWN .0065 POUND DOWN 65 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 140 basis points to 1.4092

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0623 ON SHORE (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 7.1352 (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA: 7.0232 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.02%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.62 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.28 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.96 DOWN 6 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 138.15 2.34%

German Dax : CLOSED

Paris Cac CLOSED

Spain IBEX CLOSED

Italian MIB: CLOSED

WTI Oil price; 18.98 12:00 PM EST

Brent Oil: 26.28 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 75.47 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 121 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.59 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 19.80//

BRENT : 26.53

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.62…down 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.26..down 2 basis points..

USA DOLLAR VS CNH (CHINA OFFSHORE: 7.1398

EURO/USA 1.0979 ( UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.82 DOWN .456 (YEN UP 46 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.04 UP 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.207 DOWN 74 POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.0080

the Russian rouble 75.32 DOWN 1.06 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 106 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.4065 DOWN 114 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.59%

The Dow closed DOWN 650.92 POINTS OR 2.67%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 284.60 POINTS OR 3.20%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 37.40 CLOSED UP 3.40

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.556%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: .496

TED SPREAD: .449

USA trading today in Graph Form

Mayday On May-Day – Stocks Slammed After Awesome April On China Threat, Dismal Data

Something’s wrong…

After the best stock market gains in decades in April, May is off to an ugly start… with the biggest 2-day drop in since the March collapse

The week started out so well, but the last two days have seen all the gains given back with S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all red on the week (but Small Caps managed to cling to some gains)

The Dow is down over 1300 points from yesterday’s highs, and back below the 50% retrace line…

Small Caps are back below the Dec 2018 lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The virus-fear trade is back…

Source: Bloomberg

The last 3 days saw the worst performance of equal weight vs cap weight Nasdaq since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

…back to its weakest level in over six weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Today was the worst day for FANG stocks since March 16th after reaching a new record high yesterday (and the first down week in the last six)

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL had its 8th straight day of panic-buying at the open and selling… (after an ugly session overnight following earnings)…

AMZN hit a new record high at the close last night and has fallen ever since…

Energy stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, despite oil price gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Everyone was loving bank stocks until The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The most virus-impacted sectors reverted back lower the last two days…

Source: Bloomberg

An ugly end to the week for both IG and HY credit…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed picture in Treasury-land this week with the short-end lower in yield and long-end higher (somewhat understandable after Boeing’s massive issuance)

Source: Bloomberg

10Y remains in a tight range…

Source: Bloomberg

The yields curve also remains range-bound, glued to the 50% retracement of the March steepening…

Source: Bloomberg

Just as we saw at the end of March, start of April, the USDollar has reversed its downtrend and rallied hard today…

Source: Bloomberg

Offshore yuan was monkeyhammered today – after Trump comments on pulling capital allocations – leading to its worst week since March

Source: Bloomberg

Big week for cryptos with Bitcoin leading the way…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tested back up to $9,500 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

A big mean reversion week…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot the odd one out in commodity land…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude (June) has bounced back to its cliff-edge this week, unable to break above $20…

Gold was lower on the week, hovering around the $1700 (futures) level…

Similarly, Silver is strangely attracted to $15…

Finally, spot the odd one out…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

A joke!! Fed’s balance sheet now 6.66 trillion dollars

(zerohedge)

$6.66 Trillion

Well at least our satanic overlords have a sense of humor.

According to the latest Fed balance sheet, as of April 29, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by 82.8 billion dollars over the past week, rising to a record 6,655,929,000,000 which, of course rounds up to $6.66 trillion (also, who can possibly forget that 666 was also the “generational bottom” on the S&P hit on March 6, 2009).

Whether one uses the rounded or unrounded number, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by $2.5 trillion in the past two months, and continues to grow as per the following schedule, which sees the Fed purchasing on average $10BN per day in Treasurys and $8BN in MBS, which while still staggering is a fraction of the $125BN the Fed was buying in late March.

Some other observations: according to the latest H.4.1 report, there was a total of $121 billion in borrowings on the Fed’s emergency bailout/alphabet soup facilities – which are separate from QE – of which the largest was the money market mutual fund facility, which had $47.5BN outstanding, followed by the Primary Dealer credit facility with $28.6BN, both of which were down over $2BN on the week. The Discount Window also saw a modest decline in use, shrinking by $3.7BN to $31.3BN as of April 29, and the only facility that actually increased was the Fed’s holdings under the Paycheck Protection Program facility as it appears that banks turned around and resold the loans they made to small businesses, to the Fed almost immediately.

end

USA manufacturing surveys show record collapse in output, orders and jobs

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Surveys Show Record Collapse In Output, Orders, & Jobs

Following the utter devastation across all regional Fed surveys, it should be no surprise that this morning’s national manufacturing surveys (ISM and Markit) are a disaster.

Markit US Manufacturing 36.1 – 11-year low (weaker than expected and worse than the flash print)
PMI US Manufacturing 41.5 – 11 year lows (but better than the 36.0 expected due to the farcical surge in supplier delivery times)

April data signaled an unprecedented contraction in production across the U.S. manufacturing sector, overwhelmingly linked to measures implemented to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Factory closures were widely reported and the frequent cancellation or postponement of orders resulted in the largest monthly drop in the new orders index on record. Spare capacity across the sector and pessimism about the year ahead meanwhile resulted in the fastest fall in employment since March 2009, despite efforts to furlough staff. Both input costs and output charges fell sharply as companies and their suppliers offered discounts to boost sales.

The headline reading was the lowest for just over eleven years…

Source: Bloomberg

Which confirms the collapse in regional Fed surveys…

Source: Bloomberg

New orders, employment and inventories fall at steepest rates since the global financial crisis and worse still, output expectations turn negative for first time in the series history.

ISM Manufacturing Employment crashed to a record low…

Of course, the PMI data continues to suffer from the farcical misinterpretation of a spike in supplier delivery times as a ‘positive’ thing – as opposed to being a terrible negative due to the global breakdown in supply chains caused by the pandemic and its concommitant economic lockdowns.A record collapse in new orders (and employment) and record surge in supplier delivery times.

Source: Bloomberg

What’s wrong with that picture?

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“April saw the manufacturing sector struck hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with output falling to an extent surpassing that seen even at the height of the global financial crisis. With orders collapsing at a rate not seen for over a decade, supply chains disrupted to a record degree and pessimism about the outlook hitting a new survey high, rising numbers of firms are culling payroll numbers.

“Consumer facing businesses are being hit by slumping demand from households as April saw widespread lockdowns, but business spending on inputs and equipment has also tumbled as companies slash production and investment.

“Smaller firms are being hit the hardest, and also reporting the highest job losses, but large firms are also seeing the sharpest downturn on record.

And as for hope, it’s not about to get any better…

As Williamson concluded, “with infection curves showing signs of flattening, it is naturally hoped that the economic downturn will also bottom-out. As restrictions are lifted, demand should gradually revive, but the trade-off between risking a second wave of infections and bringing the economy back to life looks set to be one of the greatest challenges faced by policy- and lawmakers in recent history. The process will inevitably be led by caution, meaning recovery will also be frustrating slow.”

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

April will be the worst month on record for auto sales

(zerohedge)

April Will Be The Worst Month On Record For Auto Sales

In a world breaking economic records left and right, we can add one more: April is set to be the worst month ever for auto sales.

According to the car shopping experts at Edmunds, April will be a record down month for the auto industry – for obvious reasons – forecasting that just 633,260 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 7.7 million. This reflects a 52.5% decrease in sales from April 2019, and a 36.6% decrease from March 2020.

Edmunds analysts note that this would be the lowest-volume sales month on record; the second worst month for sales in the past 30 years was January of 2009, when 655,000 vehicles were sold.

“April auto sales took the biggest hit we’ve seen in decades,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “These bleak figures aren’t just because consumers are holding back on their purchases — fleet sales are seeing an even more dramatic drop as daily rental business has dried up. Like many other industries, the entire automotive sector is struggling as the coronavirus crisis continues to cripple the economy.”

Edmunds experts note that plans for easing shelter-in-place orders across the country in May could open up opportunities for automakers and dealers to capture some deferred demand, but there is still economic uncertainty ahead.

“April is likely the bottom for auto sales, so hopefully there’s only room for improvement from here,” said Caldwell. “But with employment and consumer confidence at new lows, the question remains: Will people be in the position to purchase new cars? Although automakers are doing their part by offering landmark incentives, those might not be enough if consumers cannot recover financially from this crisis.”

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 6.7 million vehicles in April 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.0% of total sales.

end

Massive strikes against Amazon, Walmart etc for hazard pay along with rent strikes begins today. Big trouble for the economy commences..

(zerohedge)

Mayday On May-Day: “Unprecedented Strikes” Planned At Amazon, Walmart On Friday As Working-Poor Snub Rent Payments

The economic crash unfolding in 2020 is a much different breed of a monster than the turmoil a little more than a decade ago. There’s a major social component to the 2020 crash versus the financial crisis of 2007–08. Hence, why the Trump administration has quickly told the US Treasury to print hundreds of billions of dollars in universal basic income checks for the working poor, so they don’t erupt in anger and protest. But it appears not even socialism checks will stop the unrest that could be nearing, with more than 26.5 million folks out of jobs in 5 weeks. And let’s not forget, wealth inequality was already at extremes before the pandemic, as it seems a perfect storm of chaos is about to unfold.

So, here’s what we’ve found. And truly it could part of the beginnings of a much larger social disturbance period:

On Friday, the working poor are combining forces on several fronts, and at several companies, to conduct unprecedented strikes and stand up against mega-corporations who neglect to give them safe working conditions and hazard pay during the pandemic. Simultaneously, another strike across major cities is unfolding, that is a rent strike, folks are planning not to pay their rents in a collective manner that could produce economic problems for landlords. Combine this all together, and the working poor are about to strike back with vengeance.

Mayday, Mayday, Mayday – that is the distress call coming from a nation imploding from within – as economic depression has severely damaged the economy, eliminated millions of jobs, plunged households into financial turmoil, and disrupted food supply chains, which could be a recipe for social instabilities.

A report from The Intercept notes that workers from Amazon, Walmart, and FedEx are set to strike as they seek better health and safety standards as well as hazard pay. Demonstrations are expected this Friday. Workers from Instacart, Target, and Whole Foodsare expected to protest as well.

Email Chrismalls21@gmail.com it’s time to join up! Protect all workers at all cost we are not expandable or replaceable enough is enough TAKE THE POWER BACK! #techsolidarity #solidarity #ChrisSmalls pic.twitter.com/7UKyS1mgtV

— Christian Smalls (@Shut_downAmazon) April 22, 2020

“Protect all workers at all cost,” former Amazon employee Christian Smalls tweeted, adding, “we are not expendable or replaceable enough is enough TAKE THE POWER BACK!”

Smalls led an Amazon strike in late March at a Staten Island warehouse. Amazon immediately fired him.

“We are acting in conjunction with workers at Amazon, Target, Instacart, and other companies for International Worker’s Day [May 1] to show solidarity with other essential workers,” said Daniel Steinbrook, a Whole Foods employee and strike organizer.

Vanessa Bain, an Instacart worker and co-founder of the Gig Workers Collective, which has more than 17,000 members, told The Intercept that “workers are coming together and building power.”

“May Day is not just a one-time symbolic action, but also about building real, vast, and broad sweeping networks of power.”

May 01 could be the day when the social contract among the working poor breaks. Turmoil is ahead.

end

Brandon Smith weighs in on the coronavirus nightmare.

Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com

Smith: The Crisis Won’t Stop Until The Globalists Are Removed From Power

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In the first week of February I published an article titled ‘The Lies We Are Being Told About The Coronavirus’. I focused primarily on the disinformation coming out of China, and for those with short memories there was a flood of it being spread on various web forums by what I believe was a army of paid disinformation agents.

The lies seemed to revolve around keeping the rest of the world passive to the potential threat by promoting a set of assumptions:

1) The disinfo suppressed the information on human-to-human spread and the level of infections, suggesting that the virus was not very transmissible or that it “only infects Asians” (anyone who actually believed this nonsense at the time was truly gullible).

2) The disinfo suppressed the actual number of deaths in China to minimize the response time of people in other countries. The assumption was “it’s nothing, why worry”. Well, as we now know, there is no way China has only suffered 4600 deaths. All the evidence leaked by health officials on the ground in China suggested a much higher number of deaths, but the disinfo was enough to keep many people from taking the threat seriously.

3) The disinfo hid the source of the virus, claiming it came from an animal/food market in Wuhan even though many of the initial patients infected by the coronavirus never had any contact with the market. This was openly admitted by scientists within China as far back as January. Remember the “bat soup” rumors? All lies. And perhaps not coincidentally, the only Level 4 Biohazard lab in Asia, which studies specifically in SARS-like viruses, is right down the road from that same market.

4) The disinformation was not only coming from China. The World Health Organization consistently tried to downplay the spread of the virus, refusing to call it a pandemic for months even though it fit all their criteria. They also lavished China with praise, taking all data the Chinese government reported as if it were verified fact and defended China against any and all detractors.

5) The level of disinformation coming from US government sources, the White House and social media companies was almost enough to match China’s lies. The US government and the WHO have been working closely with social media corporations to disrupt any analysis that runs contrary to the Chinese narrative as well as the WHO narrative.

While Donald Trump and the DoD are suddenly interested in the possibility that Covid-19 is a bioweapon (something that those of us in the alternative media tried to report months ago), at the end of January Trump was also offering China praise, saying that their data was accurate and everything was “under control”.

Dr. Anthony Fauci was in the media saying :

“This is not a major threat to the people of the United States and this is not something that the citizens of the United States should be worried about right now…”

Fauci would later go on to change his tune completely, calling for strict government controls of social behavior in order to stop the spread of the virus.

The CDC and the mainstream media actively attempted to obstruct any information that might suggest the coronavirus was made in a lab, even though in 2017 experts in bio-safety warned that the lab in Wuhan might eventually cause a dangerous virus to “escape” due to lax standards. Slapped together studies based on a long list of assumptions (such as the false assumption that any bioweapon would be engineered to kill a maximum number of people) were designed to “debunk” the theory, but only served to raise more questions as people began to wonder why certain “experts” and journalists were so intent on dismissing the bioweapon issue so out of hand based.

6) In the meantime, the most egregious disinformation in the US centered on the economy. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow claimed on February 4th that the damage to the US economy from the virus would be ‘minimal’. With over 26 million people now added to the unemployment rolls, millions of small business owners desperate for bailout money, GDP in freefall, manufacturing in freefall and supply chains strained to the breaking point, I think it’s safe to say Larry Kudlow is either a complete moron or he was dutifully reading from a propaganda script that was given to him.

As I noted in February:

“The US economy is interdependent with multiple nations, and is tightly connected to China. The greatest danger of globalism in terms of economics is that it forces national economies into losing the redundancies that protect them from systemic collapse. When one major economy goes down, it brings down all other economies with it.

Not only that, but the US financial structure is precariously unstable anyway, with record levels of national debt, consumer debt and corporate debt, not to mention steep declines in manufacturing and demand. The US sits atop one of the most massive economic bubbles of all time – The Everything Bubble, created by the Federal Reserve over ten years of stimulus measures, barely keeping the system alive in a state of zombification.

The bubble was always going to collapse. In fact, recent events in Fed repo markets suggest it was already collapsing. The coronavirus outbreak is a perfect cover event for this implosion…”

The downplaying of the economic danger in particular, the lies all over the web about N95 masks not working, the claims that buying food and supplies is “panic behavior” akin to hoarding, a few months ago everything seemed designed to convince the public to NOT prepare for this event. And it was not just China and the WHO behind it; it was also our own government, the White House and the mainstream media.

Now, there is still ample debate about how deadly Covid-19 really is. Is it really “no worse than the flu”? I have seen data which suggests that there are many more infected people than initially believed which would diminish the death rate. I have also seen data which suggests that deaths from the virus are being under-reported, just like they were in China.

I say it is foolish to rush to conclusions until the virus actually runs the same course and infects hundreds of millions of people as the flu does annually. I will also say that I have never heard of hospitals and morgues being overwhelmed by the flu in modern times like they have been overwhelmed by the coronavirus, but this debate is a distraction from the real issue – It DOES NOT MATTER how deadly the virus is, what matters is that the current government response is unacceptable regardless.

The false dichotomy being constructed right now is that you either believe the virus is a horrible killer plague and that martial law is necessary to stop it, or, you believe the entire pandemic is somehow “staged” and that the whole thing is a hoax, making martial law unnecessary.

The truth is more likely somewhere in-between.

The virus is a moderate threat, it is most likely a chimera with SARS-like qualities, it is indeed killing many people but it is certainly not the Black Plague (a friend of mine just lost someone in their mid-40’s with no previous conditions; it is still smart to take precautions), and even if it was it would not matter because government tyranny and economic lockdown do not solve the problem, they only make the situation much worse.

Now that the Chinese propaganda campaign is falling apart as the data continues to contradict what they initially reported, I have to point out, as mentioned above, that China did not do all this alone. It had the help of the UN, the mainstream media and yes, even the CDC and the White House. Without all these entities working together to suppress information on the threat and its source, the public would have had far more time to prepare. And most of all, if governments including our own had restricted travel from China a month sooner when it was clear that human-to-human transmission of the virus was a reality, then the pandemic may have never happened in the first place.

Yet, they did not. Why?

Why was the threat downplayed and ignored? Why was travel from China kept open for weeks after the pandemic began killing thousands? Why did everyone including Trump defend China initially, only to now accuse them of at the very least negligence, and at worst biowarfare?

I have a theory, of course. I outlined the problem in great detail the in my article ‘How Viral Pandemic Serves The Globalist Agenda’, published in January. This article stemmed from another article I wrote in 2014 during the Ebola event which predicted everything that is now happening today. And, this month I published an analysis on open globalists admissions on how they plan to use the pandemic to promote one world cashless society and medical tyranny in my article ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’.

The narrative has shifted into blaming China for everything, and they are certainly guilty of many crimes, but they are only partly responsible for the disaster. China as a whole is not the prime beneficiary of the crisis. In fact, they are suffering economic collapse like most others nations. But, the globalists within China, the globalists within the WHO, the globalists within the US including those in Trump’s cabinet, they all benefit greatly. And this is where many people simply can’t wrap their heads around the scenario.

They can accept the idea of a Chinese conspiracy, or a UN conspiracy, or even a Trump conspiracy, but the idea that there are elites within all these countries and the White House working together? Well that’s just “crazy”, right?

I’m sorry to say that this is the reality.

The US and Canada poured millions of dollars into the experiments at the Wuhan lab and the funding was greenlit by none other than Dr. Anthony Fauci in 2015. Trump’s cabinet is stacked with global elites and people like Dr. Fauci that are intimately associated with the WHO. Fauci continues to defend the WHO. Trump initially praised the Chinese response in January. The WHO has been aggressively defending the Chinese handling of the outbreak and has thoroughly praised their response, which has included using tracking apps and QR codes to watch their citizens 24/7 and implement medical totalitarianism. This same medical totalitarianism was suggested during Event 201, the “simulation” of a coronavirus pandemic funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum which was held only TWO MONTHS before the real thing happened. This is the same medical totalitarianism that Bill Gates and others like MIT are promoting as a solution today.

The globalists have consistently called for a shift into a cashless society and a technocratic surveillance culture. Is it not convenient that these are the solutions being consistently offered in the face of the pandemic?

If you examine the chain of events, the amount of give and take between China, the WHO, and other governments including the US government and the fact that the globalists are about to get everything they want from this catastrophe, I do not think it is outlandish to suggest that perhaps this virus was unleashed deliberately and that globalists in multiple nations are working together to achieve a specific outcome.

With the US blaming China and the Chinese blaming the US, the truth is being lost in the fog of propaganda. The truth being that BOTH sides and the WHO made this pandemic possible, and that the elites on ALL sides have something to gain. The end game they desire is global governance, a one world digital currency system and a rationale for full spectrum surveillance of the citizenry. The pandemic allows them to have all of this, unless the people take action to fight back and disrupt their plans.

Some people will call this “wild speculation” or “conspiracy theory”, but these people are either ignorant of the facts. The evidence is substantial. I have outlined it over and over again the past few months. Luckily, I do see a growing to counter the globalist script. Hopefully, we have the time and tenacity to stop them from getting what they want.

Understand, however, that this crisis will not stop until the globalists are unseated. The current “wave” of the virus is only the first. Expect wave after wave of infections, and wave after wave of lockdowns by complicit government officials. And when COVID-19 doesn’t scare people anymore, all the elites have to do is release ANOTHER virus with varied effects. To stop the lockdowns and to stop the pandemic we have to stop the globalists. We have to go to the root of the threat.

* * *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE.

end

Bill Blain…

on Boeing..

“It’s A Crock Of S**t!” – Here’s Why Bill Blain Is Furious This Morning

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

I am deeply uneasy about what’s happening in financial markets.

The Coronavirus has completely turned the global economy on its head. It will create the most profound changes to the way we live and our future prospects – we are all beginning to realise that. There is not going to be a V-Shaped recovery. Many lives will be shattered and ruined in its wake.

Yes, what I saw yesterday confirms two terrible truths we’ve long denied:

1) The system was already rotten to its very core before Coronavirus triggered the coming depression. This was coming and is overdue.

2) Those responsible for that rotten core will likely walk away richer, while the poor working men and women that struggle, scrimp and suffer spending their lives working for them will inevitably get poorer.

What has made me so angry?

Boeing.

Boeing has launched an extremely successful multi-tranche $25 billion bond deal. The issue solves all its immediate funding needs. It enables the company to walk away from difficult bailout discussions. It claims its access to market capital demonstrates it’s soundness – which is utter bollchocks – and that it doesn’t need a government rescue. The issue of moral hazard for government is avoided. Boeing will survive – for time being – as is.

It’s a crock of s**t.

The bond deal was snapped up by investors. It does offer a small increase in yield if its downgraded to junk, and an 5.15% yield on the 10-year tranche. Buyers are unconcerned the company is haemorrhaging money, has been downgraded to the cusp of junk, faces massive lawsuits over the B-737 Max, has comprised on quality and safety, is laying staff off in droves, and is seeing orders cancelled around the globe.

Nope… Investors love it.

They wanted to buy – even though it looks to be priced very aggressively for a company with such obvious crisis emblazoned across it. The brutal reality is investors know Boeing is such a central part of the US Military-Industrial-Aerospace complex, with so many other contractors and jobs dependent upon it, that the US government has no choice but to backstop it. It’s the industrial equivalent of Too-Big-To-Fail.

The get-out-of-jail-card is there in plain sight – The Fed’s QE Infinity programme can buy as much toxic Boeing bonds as the market cares to lob at them. As we know from the Taper-Tantrum a few years back, bond holders have an infinite put back to the Fed. As long as it was investment grade back in March it qualifies for the Fed… No one cares about the economic reality facing the company.

It fills me with great sadness.

What happened to the concept of the free hand of markets ensuring the efficient allocation of capital to good companies? This deal screams MORAL HAZARD – yet the whole street has bought it.

So much for ESG and the importance of socially aware investment and good governance. The Street should hang our heads in shame…

Boeing illustrates everything that was once great but is now rotten about our Western economy:

It was once a good solid plane maker. It built the aircraft that allowed global airlines to develop, grow and innovate new routes and services. Regional travel, tourism and business travel all exploded in the wake of the Boeing aircraft that enabled it. The B-737 regional jet and the B-747 Jumbo really did make the world smaller and brought it to everyone’s door.

Then it bought MacDonald-Douglas. The rival smaller planemaker pulled off the coup of the century, buying Boeing with Boeing’s money as the joke went. Its executives took over. The brilliant Boeing engineers were ousted by McD cost accountants. Cost cutting trumped engineering every time. The company moved to Chicago – away from its Seattle roots.

The last decent plane Boeing made was the innovative, fuel-efficient, composite Dreamliner. It cost $25 bln plus to develop – and it will take decades to recoup the money through clever accounting. (It may never make a real profit.) The plan had then been to develop a successor for the venerable B-737 which airlines and the environmental lobby would have loved: a fuel efficient lightweight city-to-city hopper. It never happened.

Instead the C-Suite cut costs and saved money. Their market was secure, a duopoly with Airbus and 3-4 year order books, happy that airlines had little choice but keep buying whatever crud they offered.

As interest rates fell Boeing borrowed more and more from market, using it to buyback stock. The stock soared. Executives received enormous bonuses and stock option packages. Workers saw salary and conditions cut. Quality fell. The C-Suite decided not to invest in new aircraft development – they simply further extended the B-737, making the once slim thoroughbred of the skies into a fat, bloated unstable and unsafe lump of flying metal. 346 people paid the ultimate price for Boeing compromising safety.

Today Boeing has no aircraft on its books any airline really wants. Its new B-777x is years late and utterly pointless in this new environment. There have been very few new Dreamliner orders – the whole programme may have lost money. Across the globe airlines are retrenching. It could be years before air travel recovers.

Boeing is textbook corporate failure.

Yet because of the perception Governments will now intervene freely in “free markets”, it’s been able to snub a “strings-attached” government rescue, take market money, and is still backstopped.

This really is the end of Capitalism… The rolling raucus sound you hear from the hills in North London is the sound of Karl Marx laughing his head off in Highgate Cemetery.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Biden officially denies the Tara Reade sexual assault claim

(zerohedge)

Joe Biden Officially Denies Tara Reade Sexual Assault Claim

Update (0812ET): Just as we expected, the interview has devolved into a bunch of “believe all women” double-talk. Yes, all assault claims must be taken seriously, just like this one is being taken ‘seriously’…sure.

BIDEN: BELIEVING WOMEN MEANS TAKING THEM SERIOUSLY, VETTING
BIDEN SAYS HE HAS NOTHING TO HIDE, NO COMPLAINTS
BIDEN SAYS THERE ARE NO NON-DISCLOSURE AGREEMENTS IN HIS CASE

* * *

Update (0800ET): And as the ‘Morning Joe’ interview gets underway, Mika just announced that she will be interviewing Biden alone.

Meanwhile, as Biden struggles, Hillary Clinton is waiting for the call.

* * *

Directly addressing the allegations that have upended his stalled campaign, former VP Joe Biden issued a statement denying sexual assault allegations made by Tara Reade – a former staffer who claims Biden digitally penetrated her against her wishes back in the early 1990s.

In the statement, Biden said the alleged assault “never happened” and that his papers at the University of Delaware include no mention of the incident.

The statement begins: “So I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago. They aren’t true. This never happened.”

Reade has claimed she made a complaint about the incident. The WaPo editorial board has pressed Biden to release sealed Senate records, but Biden’s alma mater UDel said yesterday it had no plans to release Biden’s papers. Even the NYT released a statement undercutting the nominee by saying that its report did not “exonerate” Biden from the allegations.

In the statement, Biden says he plans to ask the Secretary of the Senate to ask the National Archives to identify and release to the press any complaints filed by Reade, who says she filed a complain in 1993. Reade started working for Biden in late 1992 and left in the summer of 1993.

Biden – who hasn’t previously addressed the allegations directly – released his statement as MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” aired a supposedly “unscripted” interview with Biden where they were supposed to ask “tough questions” about the allegations. However, a clip from a pre-filmed segment portends a flurry of softball questions, answered with the help of a teleprompter.

Even the NYT is questioning why the major cable news organizations (aside from Fox News) have been reluctant to put Reade herself on the air. She has chosen to give her ‘exclusive’ interview to Fox News (rumor has it Chris Wallace, the network’s most reputable newsman, will conduct the interview).

Tara Reade filed a police report three weeks ago, despite the fact that Biden’s crime is well past the statute of limitations.

The statement begins with Biden recalling his work on the “Violence Against Women Act”, a law Biden claims he wrote “over 25 years ago”…or just two years after a young intern named Tara Reade joined his office.

Read the full statement below (courtesy of Medium):

“April was Sexual Assault Awareness Month. Every year, at this time, we talk about awareness, prevention, and the importance of women feeling they can step forward, say something, and be heard. That belief – that women should be heard – was the underpinning of a law I wrote over 25 years ago. To this day, I am most proud of the Violence Against Women Act. So, each April we are reminded not only of how far we have come in dealing with sexual assault in this country – but how far we still have to go.

When I wrote the bill, few wanted to talk about the issue. It was considered a private matter, a personal matter, a family matter. I didn’t see it that way. To me, freedom from fear, harm, and violence for women was a legal right, a civil right, and a human right. And I knew we had to change not only the law, but the culture.

So, we held hours of hearings and heard from the most incredibly brave women – and we opened the eyes of the Senate and the nation – and passed the law.

In the years that followed, I fought to continually strengthen the law. So, when we took office and President Obama asked me what I wanted, I told him I wanted oversight of the critical appointments in the Office on Violence Against Women at the Department of Justice and I wanted a senior White House Advisor appointing directly to me on the issue. Both of those things happened.

As Vice President, we started the “It’s on Us” campaign on college campuses to send the message loud and clear that dating violence is violence – and against the law.

We had to get men involved. They had to be part of the solution. That’s why I made a point of telling young men this was their problem too – they couldn’t turn a blind eye to what was happening around them – they had a responsibility to speak out. Silence is complicity.
In the 26 years since the law passed, the culture and perceptions have changed but we’re not done yet.
It’s on us, and it’s on me as someone who wants to lead this country. I recognize my responsibility to be a voice, an advocate, and a leader for the change in culture that has begun but is nowhere near finished. So I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago.

They aren’t true. This never happened.

While the details of these allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault are complicated, two things are not complicated. One is that women deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, and when they step forward they should be heard, not silenced. The second is that their stories should be subject to appropriate inquiry and scrutiny.

Responsible news organizations should examine and evaluate the full and growing record of inconsistencies in her story, which has changed repeatedly in both small and big ways.

But this much bears emphasizing.

She has said she raised some of these issues with her supervisor and senior staffers from my office at the time. They – both men and a woman – have said, unequivocally, that she never came to them and complained or raised issues. News organizations that have talked with literally dozens of former staffers have not found one – not one – who corroborated her allegations in any way. Indeed, many of them spoke to the culture of an office that would not have tolerated harassment in any way – as indeed I would not have.

There is a clear, critical part of this story that can be verified. The former staffer has said she filed a complaint back in 1993. But she does not have a record of this alleged complaint. The papers from my Senate years that I donated to the University of Delaware do not contain personnel files. It is the practice of Senators to establish a library of personal papers that document their public record: speeches, policy proposals, positions taken, and the writing of bills.

There is only one place a complaint of this kind could be – the National Archives. The National Archives is where the records are kept at what was then called the Office of Fair Employment Practices. I am requesting that the Secretary of the Senate ask the Archives to identify any record of the complaint she alleges she filed and make available to the press any such document. If there was ever any such complaint, the record will be there.

As a Presidential candidate, I’m accountable to the American people. We have lived long enough with a President who doesn’t think he is accountable to anyone, and takes responsibility for nothing. That’s not me. I believe being accountable means having the difficult conversations, even when they are uncomfortable. People need to hear the truth.

I have spent my career learning from women the ways in which we as individuals and as policy makers need to step up to make their hard jobs easier, with equal pay, equal opportunity, and workplaces and homes free from violence and harassment. I know how critical women’s health issues and basic women’s rights are. That has been a constant through my career, and as President, that work will continue. And I will continue to learn from women, to listen to women, to support women, and yes, to make sure women’s voices are heard.

We have a lot of work to do. From confronting online harassment, abuse, and stalking, to ending the rape kit backlog, to addressing the deadly combination of guns and domestic violence.

We need to protect and empower the most marginalized communities, including immigrant and indigenous women, trans women, and women of color.

We need to make putting an end to gender-based violence in both the United States and around the world a top priority.

I started my work over 25 years ago with the passage of the Violence Against Women Act. As president, I’m committed to finishing the job.

end

Biden bumbles over his Tara Reade answers:

Biden Bumbles Over Tara Reade Answers During Tense MSNBC Interview

Joe Biden’s personnel records from his days in the Senate have come under the microscope after former staffer Tara Reade says she filed a formal sexual assault complaint against him – an allegation he officially denied on Friday.

Biden, who graduated from the University of Delaware and served as Delaware’s senator, transferred the records to the university in 2011 – which announced a change to their expected unsealing shortly before Biden announced his bid for the White House. Meanwhile, Biden has refused to allow a search of the roughly 1,875 boxes of documents and 415 gigabytes of electronic records, as detailed yesterday by Jonathan Turley.

Biden’s excuse? That the records could expose unrelated things he’s said or done which could be ‘taken out of context’ and used against him before the November election.

On Friday, however, Biden stammered through an awkward MSNBC interview in which host Mika Brzezinski pressed him on whether he would allow a narrow search for records only pertaining to Tara Reade.

Brzezinski: Personnel records aside, are you certain there was nothing about Tara Reade in those records – and if so, why not approve a search of her name in those records?

Biden: Approve a search of her name?

Brzezinski: Yes, and reveal anything that might be related to Tara Reade in the University of Delaware records?

Biden: There is nothing. They wouldn’t… They’re not there. And I, I, I… you know, I don’t understand the point you’re trying to make! There are no personnel records by definition.

…

Brzezinski: I’m just talking about her name, not anybody else in those records – a search for that. [awkward silence] Why not do a search for Tara Reade’s name in the University of Delaware records.

Biden: Look, I mean, who does that search?

Brzezinski: Perhaps the University of Delaware?

Watch (University of Delaware question starts at 55 seconds):

Turley weighs in:

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

The ECB did not lower its benchmark rates. But the central bank introduced “PELTROS” – pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations. The scheme will allow banks to borrow at -0.25%. The European Central Bank said it would lend money to banks via its targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) at -1.0%. https://www.ft.com/content/cef090d0-97dc-4e75-a4b1-deebfd4afacf

ECB announces new pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations.

These operations will provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system and contribute to preserving the smooth functioning of money markets by providing an effective backstop after the expiry of the bridge longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) that have been conducted since March 2020. Counterparties participating in PELTROs will be able to benefit from the collateral easing measures in place until the end of September 2021 that were announced by the Governing Council on 7 and 23 April 2020. The PELTROs will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment. The operations will be offered at highly accommodative terms. The interest rate will be 25 basis points below the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations (currently 0%) over the life of the respective PELTRO… https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200430_1~477f400e39.en.html

Lagarde did a Draghi, saying the ECB “would do whatever was needed” and stood ready to increase its debt monetization. The ECB did NOT increase the size of its PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). But Lagarde asserted that the ECB was “fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary for as long as needed.”

ECB Steps Up Crisis Aid as Lagarde Demands Government Action

ECB president says euro-area economy may shrink 12% this year… 15% in the 2^nd quarter…

The ECB… renewed its call on politicians to provide more fiscal support… The lowest rate on a targeted program that gives banks incentives to lend to companies and households will fall to 50 basis points below the deposit rate, meaning they will be able to borrow for minus 1%. The cost of a new non-targeted facility will be minus 0.25%…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/ecb-intensifies-crisis-response-with-new-loans-after-gdp-crash

The ECB could not assuage market concern about the EU economy or European banks. (EU GDP declined 3.8% in Q1). The Euro Stoxx 50 declined 2.28%; the FTSE dropped 3.50%. The Stoxx 600 Bank Index tumbled 4.52%.

The persistent decline in European equities, despite new ECB credit schemes and Lagarde’s channeling of Draghi, generated an equity decline in the US. However, the NY FANG+ Index stayed positive as traders bought Apple and Amazon on the belief that these companies would report great results after the close.

Ugly US economy data was a huge drag on stocks. Initial Jobless Claims increased 3.839m; 3.5m was expected. Continuing Claims hit 17.992m; 19.476m was expected. The biggest negative was March Personal Spending plunged 7.5% (biggest decline on record); -5.1% was expected.

US stocks and ESMs continued to slide after Europe closed. Economic concern was trumping the urge to manipulate stuff higher to embellish April performance. A bottom was hit at midday. The ensuing rally was modest and short lived. Stocks then went inert until the manipulation to embellish April performance appeared during the final hour of trading. Alas, it was only a modest rally – stocks are extremely tired.

WaPo: U.S. officials are crafting retaliatory actions against China as Trump lashes out over its handling of coronavirus – No final decisions have been made, but officials from multiple agencies plan to meet on Thursday to discuss possible steps. The move could splinter already strained relations between the two superpowers at a perilous moment for the global economy…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/trump-china-coronavirus-retaliation/

Dozens of protesters, some armed, enter Michigan Capitol as tensions over coronavirus restrictions escalates https://www.foxnews.com/us/michigan-lansing-coronavirus-protest-capitol-guns-rifles

@BloombergAsia: Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom orders beaches closed in Orange County [due to crowds].

@BittelJulien: The US Chemical Activity Barometer fell -14.8% YoY in April, implying the S&P 500 should be trading closer to -40% YoY vs. +0.5% today. Mkts are clearly pricing a v-shape recovery. I think the depth & duration of this crisis will surprise many. But for now, in Fed we trust. [charts at link]

https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1255823904314200070

FBI found no ‘derogatory’ Russia evidence on Flynn, planned to close case before abrupt turnabout

FBI memos show case was to be closed with a defensive briefing before a second interview with Flynn was sought… the lead agent in the large Russia case, Peter Strzok, intervened to stop the case from being closed. In text messages to his team, Strzok specifically cited “the 7th floor” of FBI headquarters, where then-Director James Comey worked, as the reason he intervened. “Hey if you haven’t closed RAZOR, don’t do so yet,” Strzok texted on Jan. 4, 2017. “It is still open and Im still listed as the case manager,” his colleague texted back. “Rgr, I couldn’t raise earlier. Please keep it open for now” Strzok texted. Later he added, “7th floor involved.”

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/fbi-found-no-derogatory-russia-evidence-flynn-planned#.XqsVGqAfm5Y.twitter

Obama and Biden could be in big trouble on Spygate.

The memorandum to close the investigation into Flynn — for allegedly violating the Logan Act, an archaic law preventing private citizens from conducting public diplomacy — was dated January 4, 2017. Then-President Barack Obama, then-Vice President Joe Biden, and other senior officials met with then-FBI Director James Comey the next day (Jan. 5),to give him instructions as to how he should brief President-elect Trump the following day (Jan. 6) about the FBI’s Russia investigation. Comey was instructed to tell Trump specifically about the salacious accusations in the Steele dossier, which were false and uncorroborated… [This was then leaked to the media, which then reported on the dossier.]

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/04/30/new-evidence-fbi-wanted-to-drop-case-against-michael-flynn-until-peter-strzok-intervened/

SCOOP: CIA, FBI Informant [Halper] Was Washington Post Source for Russiagate Smears

These close connections between the Washington Post’s David Ignatius and people connected to U.S. and U.K. intelligence raise grave concerns about the deep state using media to push propaganda.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/11/04/scoop-cia-fbi-informant-was-washington-post-source-for-russiagate-smears/

GOP Rep. Mark Walker @RepMarkWalker: The DOJ improperly targeted @realDonaldTrump + his staff. Flynn is a war hero and they destroyed his life because they didn’t like the President. Time and time again, DOJ has acted in an embarrassing and detrimental fashion. Until someone goes to jail, this behavior won’t stop.

Top GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley @ChuckGrassley: New DOJ/Flynn docs are stamped w SCO as in Special Counsels Office. Did Mueller have these docs? Why did his team sit on them? What else is Mueller team that cost taxpayers $30+ million hiding? The ppl deserve answers 2 restore faith in federal law enforcement agencies. AttGen Barr: it’s so obvious the unconstitutional punishment that GenFlynn has had for four long years u need to intervene and #FREE FLYNN

@seanmdav: Lost in the Flynn news yesterday was the revelation that Flynn’s original Covington (Eric Holder top partner) attorney rejected immunity overtures before informing Flynn and even said he wouldn’t let Flynn testify before Congress without Robert Mueller’s approval.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/29/flynns-original-defense-team-repeatedly-rejected-congressional-immunity-overtures/

ABC: Governors were warned of a pandemic years ago, told to stockpile. Why didn’t they do more?

[States] are not yet adequately prepared,” declared a 2008 report by the National Governors Association (NGA), which noted that a pandemic could “overwhelm” U.S. hospitals, “severely impact” state economies, threaten food supplies, and shutter schools and universities…

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/governors-warned-pandemic-years-ago-told-stockpile-didnt/story

State and local officials in big cities have been spending huge sums for years to stay in power – AKA buying votes. The resultant enormous deficits mandate cutting something to stay afloat.

“Fear is the foundation of most governments.” – John Adams

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT: 1054 NOTICE(S) FOR 105,400 OZ (3.278 tonnes)

1819 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 27,445,000 OZ/

Let us have a look at the data for today

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 166,114 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 256,563 contracts// volumes very low

Will gold really hit $3,000 an ounce in the next 18 months?

1, May

A punchy call on gold prices

What might ruin gold’s party?

Why financial repression will drive gold higher

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

NOTE: Inbound deliveries to our Loomis and Brink’s vaults in Zurich, Singapore, London and Dublin have resumed and investors can move their assets to our vaults from safe deposit box companies, bullion stored with banks or digital gold platforms or ETFs.

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Comex operator prepares for clearing member default

After Gold & Oil Contract Chaos, CME Group Secures $7 Billion Credit Line “In Case Of Clearing Member Default”

CME Group has prepared for clearing member defaults for some years now

Kitco analyst denies market manipulation but fails to address even one document of it

Iran is hauling gold bars out of Venezuela’s almost-empty vaults

Ronan Manly: LBMA gold price benchmark ignores market conditions and shortchanges investors

iii) Other physical stories:

Silver Hasn’t Been This Cheap In 5,000 Years Of Human History

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

Futures Tumble, Dollar Surges After Trump Threatens To Restart China Trade War

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

SoftBank’s International Arm Cuts 10% Of Employees As Coronavirus Seals WeWork’s Fate

3 C CHINA

Yuan Crashes After Trump Weighs Blocking Retirement Fund Access To Chinese Stocks As War Of Words Escalates

China Refuses WHO Request To Take Part In Coronavirus Origin Probe

Dozens Of Patients In Wuhan Have Developed ‘Chronic’ Coronavirus Infections

Rabo: This Is How We Get To The “Unthinkable” 10-Handle In The Yuan

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Pompeo Demands Countries Block Airspace To Iran’s ‘Terrorist Airline’ After Venezuela Deliveries

6.Global Issues

Friday musing

7. OIL ISSUES

Berman: Game Over For Oil… The Economy Is Next

It’s Really Bad

Energy is the Economy

Slouching Toward Bethlehem

US Oil Rig Count Collapses As Wave Of Shale Well Closures Begins

More Production Cuts

Expensive Shut-Ins

Deal Mania

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

USA trading today in Graph Form

Mayday On May-Day – Stocks Slammed After Awesome April On China Threat, Dismal Data

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

$6.66 Trillion

US Manufacturing Surveys Show Record Collapse In Output, Orders, & Jobs

April Will Be The Worst Month On Record For Auto Sales

Mayday On May-Day: “Unprecedented Strikes” Planned At Amazon, Walmart On Friday As Working-Poor Snub Rent Payments

Smith: The Crisis Won’t Stop Until The Globalists Are Removed From Power

“It’s A Crock Of S**t!” – Here’s Why Bill Blain Is Furious This Morning

What has made me so angry?

Joe Biden Officially Denies Tara Reade Sexual Assault Claim

Biden Bumbles Over Tara Reade Answers During Tense MSNBC Interview

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