Plausible deniability is the ability of people, typically senior officials in a formal or informal chain of command, to deny knowledge of or responsibility for any damnable actions committed by others in an organizational hierarchy because of a lack or absence of evidence that can confirm their participation, even if they were personally involved in or at least willfully ignorant of the actions.
If illegal or otherwise-disreputable and unpopular activities become public, high-ranking officials may deny any awareness of such acts to insulate themselves and shift the blame onto the agents who carried out the acts, as they are confident that their doubters will be unable to prove otherwise. The lack of evidence to the contrary ostensibly makes the denial plausible (credible), but sometimes, it makes the denial only unactionable. The term typically implies forethought, such as intentionally setting up the conditions for the plausible avoidance of responsibility for one’s future actions or knowledge. In some organizations, legal doctrines such as command responsibility exist to hold major parties responsible for the actions of subordinates who are involved in heinous acts and nullify any legal protection that their denial of involvement would carry.
In politics and espionage, deniability refers to the ability of a powerful player or intelligence agency to pass the buck and to avoid blowback by secretly arranging for an action to be taken on its behalf by a third party that is ostensibly unconnected with the major player. In political campaigns, plausible deniability enables candidates to stay clean and denounce third-party advertisements that use unethical approaches or potentially-libelous innuendo.
Although plausible deniability has existed throughout history, the term was coined by the CIA in the early 1960s to describe the withholding of information from senior officials to protect them from repercussions if illegal or unpopular activities became public knowledge.
GOLD:$1879.70 DOWN $30.50 The quote is London spot price
Silver:$23.39 DOWN $1.09 London spot price ( cash market)
your data…
Closing access prices: London spot
i)Gold : $1876.70 LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
ii)SILVER: $23.40//LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.92 PTS OR .46% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.39 /The Nikkei closed DOWN 67.29 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .23%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 37.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7153. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7218 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
total withdrawals; 8523.515 oz
We had 3 kilobar transactions +
ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //
The front month of OCT registered a total of 466 contracts for a LOSS of 33 contracts. We had 99 notices filed yesterday so we gained 66 contracts or 6600 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.
November LOST 71 contracts to stand at 1531.
The big December contract GAINED 1670 contracts UP to 440,869 contracts..
THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (108.52 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.
We had 460 notices filed today for 46000 oz OR 143 TONNES.
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (34,885) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (466 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (460 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,489100 OZ OR 108.52 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:
No of notices filed so far (34,885, x 100 oz +466 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (460) x 100 oz which equals 3,489,100 oz standing OR 108.52 TONNES in this active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).
We gained 66 contracts or an additional 6600 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.
NEW PLEDGED GOLD: BRINKS
596,251.890 oz NOW PLEDGED SEPT 15.2020/HSBC 18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)
60,784/803 PLEDGED APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA: 1.3234 tonnes
deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7 (600 tonnes)
277,934.09 oz (some deleted august 3) JPM 8.644 TONNES
610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/ july 2/july 21 19.017 tonnes
67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm
total pledged gold: 1,612,498.114 oz 50.155 tonnes
total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold 37,596.259.792 oz 1,169.40 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
total 4 GC gold: 126.34 tonnes
total gold net of 4 GC: 1043.06 tonnes
end
I have compiled data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months
The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.
I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month. I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.
The first graph is a logarithmic graph and the second graph, linear.
You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.
THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL
And now for the wild silver comex results
And now for the wild silver comex results
INITIAL STANDINGS
OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
995.500 oz
Delaware
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
546,552.500 oz
Manfra
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
576,903.867 oz
JPMorgan
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
573 contracts
2,865,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2269 contracts
11,345,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
- The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
- A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
- In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
CNBC.com
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
- Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
- Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Futures Tumble, European Stocks, Oil Plummet As Europe Imposes Partial Lockdowns
U.S. futures continued their slump, hitting a three-week low as shares in Europe and crude oil tumbled after tighter covid restrictions in Germany and France sparked fear of even broader lockdowns. European stocks dropped to a 5 month low with all 20 sectors were in the red, while safe havens such as the dollar and Treasuries rose. Oil and gold slipped, while Bitcoin surged to the highest since January 2018. The VIX Index climbed to the highest level since June, rising as high as 37 overnight.
With hopes for a new fiscal stimulus deal before the election dead and buried and all attention shifting to covid, Wynn Resorts and United Airlines Holdings, companies sensitive to restrictions, dropped more than 1% in premarket trading. Energy firms such as Occidental Petroleum Corp fell 2.8% on concerns over fuel demand. Microsoft’s quarterly results smashed analysts targets, benefiting from a pandemic-driven shift to working from home and online learning. However, its shares fell 2% after rising 35% so far this year after its sales forecasts in key units missed estimates, overshadowing a revenue beat on cloud demand. The other Big Tech companies – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook – which are due to report results on Thursday, fell between 0.9% and 1.6%. GE jumped in early trading after posting a surprise profit and positive industrial free cash flow.
Spiraling pandemic, elevated unemployment levels and U.S. lawmakers failing to strike a deal on fresh fiscal stimulus before the Nov. 3 election sent the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq to their lowest close in three weeks on Tuesday.
“We’ve been warning investors over the last few days in particular to maybe pare back a little bit of their strong risk position,” Laura Fitzsimmons, JPMorgan Australia’s executive director of macro sales, said on Bloomberg TV. “As you see the odds start to wane a little bit more for Biden, maybe that continues a bit more. We all remember four years ago when markets were very much surprised.”
Meanwhile, surging new cases and hospitalizations set records in the U.S. Midwest, while in Europe, concerns over a national lockdown in France hammered risk appetite. Overnight Germany proposed closing bars and restaurants for a month, while France reportedly favors a one-month lockdown from midnight tomorrow. Turkey barred doctors and nurses from taking leave, resigning or retiring.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell as much as 2.7%, before trimming its decline to 2%. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fared better. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was almost flat on Wednesday, and markets in South Korea and Shanghai posted modest gains. In China, indicators tracked by Bloomberg showed the recovery continued to display mixed signals while remaining broadly steady in October.
On the political front, Trump plans 11 rallies across 10 states in the final 48 hours of campaign travel, CBS reported. The president is also considering issuing an executive order requiring an economic analysis of fracking as he tries to woo Pennsylvania and Ohio.
China’s yuan depreciated as local banks abandoned inclusion of a key factor used to calculate the currency’s fixing. The offshore yuan weakened 0.1% to 6.7211 per dollar.
As reported yesterday, some banks stopped using the counter-cyclical factor in their formulas for the fixing recently, according to an official statement released Tuesday. The removal of the factor, which was first introduced in 2017 to rein in depreciation, suggests Beijing hopes to slow a rapid advance in the currency since May. “The change could increase renminbi volatility ahead,” Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Sun Lu wrote in a note, using the yuan’s official name. “We think the risk-reward for bullish offshore yuan exposure may start to look attractive again” when the currency edges close to 6.75-6.80.
In rates, Treasuries extended this week’s gains with yields as much as 1.5bp richer across 5- to 30-year sectors as S&P futures touch fresh three-week lows. Treasury 10-year yields around 0.753%, lagging bunds by ~1bp as risk-off backdrop supports European fixed income; gilts also slightly outperform. Bunds outperform with euro-area stocks plunging almost 3% amid rising coronavirus infections and toughening lockdowns. Auctions resume Wednesday with $55b 5-year note sale.
In FX, the dollar rose with the yen and Treasuries, amid broad based risk aversion. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest level in more than one week and the Treasury curve bull-flattened as a continued rise in coronavirus infections and an approaching U.S. election boosted demand for havens. The euro slipped to a session low of $1.1743, and was set for its steepest three-day decline versus the dollar in five weeks, as Europe’s governments prepared to tighten restrictions due to the rising virus count, which may aslo fuel more dovish rhetoric from the European Central Bank at Thursday’s review. The yen advanced to a five-week high, and was the only Group-of-10 currency to rise versus the dollar while Sweden’s krona and Norway’s krone led losses among peers. The Australian dollar gave up an Asia-session gain which followed a rebound in the nation’s quarterly consumer prices.
Elsewhere, oil retreated back below $38 a barrel in New york after an industry report pointed to a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent plunged 4%, dropping below $40 for the first time in a month on slowing global demand concerns.
Economic data include mortgage applications, wholesale inventories. Visa, Mastercard and Amgen are among the highlights of a busy earnings day. Earnings season continues, with Visa, Mastercard, United Parcel Service, Amgen, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, Ford Motor Company, General Electric and Nomura all reporting.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 1.5% to 3,333.75
- MXAP down 0.2% to 175.60
- MXAPJ down 0.2% to 583.26
- Nikkei down 0.3% to 23,418.51
- Topix down 0.3% to 1,612.55
- Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 24,708.80
- Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,269.24
- Sensex down 1.8% to 39,790.97
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,057.74
- Kospi up 0.6% to 2,345.26
- STOXX Europe 600 down 2.6% to 343.47
- German 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to -0.636%
- Euro down 0.4% to $1.1753
- Brent Futures down 3.1% to $39.91/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield fell 3.8 bps to 0.498%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.181%
- Brent Futures down 3.1% to $39.91/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,903.48
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 93.32
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed closing bars and restaurants for a month and French President Emmanuel Macron prepared to announce tougher restrictions that may include a lockdown as hospitals fill up across Europe
- As the European Union seeks to disburse funds from its 750 billion-euro ($888 billion) recovery program as soon as next year, some of the countries hardest hit by the pandemic are struggling to work out how to best keep their finances in check once they take on billions of euros of new loans
- Data due Thursday are forecast to show U.S. gross domestic product surged an annualized 32% in the third quarter, almost double the previous high. That figure will reflect activity switching back on across the country after Covid-19 fears and government stay-at-home orders ground the economy to a halt in April
- China’s economic recovery displayed mixed signals while remaining broadly steady in October, with small businesses turning more cautious and the property market weakening even as car sales soar. The aggregate index combining eight early indicators tracked by Bloomberg was unchanged from the previous month
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian equity markets lacked firm direction following the mixed performance of stateside peers as earnings season and the upcoming election provided a cautious setting, while US stock index futures were further pressured after-hours on European shutdown concerns after reports stated that France and Germany were both mulling nationwide lockdowns. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was indecisive with initial declines due to underperformance in the energy sector amid weaker oil prices and with financials also subdued after ANZ Bank flagged a AUD 528mln hit to earnings, although the losses in the index were eventually pared by ongoing tech resilience. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) and KOSPI (+0.6%) were varied as participants reflected on quarterly results and with the BoJ kickstarting its 2-day policy meeting where no major fireworks are expected. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) conformed to the choppy price action amid earnings and with Hong Kong resuming the underperformance against the mainland, despite the continued rally in tech heavyweight Tencent which extended on record highs and flirted with the HKD 600 level after it having recently averted a US WeChat ban. Finally, 10yr JGBs mildly extended above the psychological 152.00 level as prices benefitted from the cautious risk tone in Japan and following recent upside in T-notes, but with gains capped as the BoJ began its 2-day policy meeting where the central bank is widely expected to hold off from any policy tweaks.
Top Asian News
- The Pessimist’s Guide to Jack Ma’s Record-Breaking Ant IPO
- Bharti Airtel Jumps After 14 Million New Users Boost Sales
- Korea Consumer Confidence Jumps Most Since 2009 as Virus Eases
- Nomura’s Overhaul Pays Off With Help From Traders, Dealmakers
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -2.5%) trade with heavy losses as the prospect of further lockdown restrictions in the Europe triggers investor concern over the region’s recovery prospects. In Germany, the DAX (-2.7%) is enduring significant downside amid reports that German Chancellor Merkel is pushing for tougher restrictions which would see the closure of restaurants and bars and limit people’s movements until the end of November. Losses for the index have also been exacerbated by Beiersdorf (-6.2%) and BASF (-4.0%) post-earnings with the former unable to reassure investors despite posting an encouraging performance in Q3. Delivery Hero (+4.4%) are the only gainer in the DAX after Q3 orders reached a new record, with the Co. also likely to benefit from any restrictions that limit seated restaurant bookings. CAC 40 (-2.7%) is also lagging its peers amid reports that the French government may impose a month-long national lockdown to combat the COVID pandemic which could take effect from midnight on Thursday. From a sectoral standpoint, losses are hitting some of the more cyclically exposed sectors hardest with laggards comprising of autos, banking and oil & gas names. Of note for the banking sector, Deutsche Bank (+1.9%) have seen shallower losses than peers after posting a Q3 profit of EUR 128mln (vs. a prior Y/Y loss of EUR 942mln) amid strong performance in its investment banking division with the Co. also upgrading its FY20 revenue outlook. Elsewhere for the industry, Danske Bank (-1.1%) raised its FY20 net profit outlook alongside Q3 earnings with the Co. citing more favourable market conditions. In what has been a particularly downbeat session thus far, bucking the trend are the likes of Next (+4.4%), Carlsberg (+1.6%) and Morphosys (+0.8%) post-earnings.
Top European News
- Aston Martin Soars After Securing Mercedes’s Help Out of Crisis
- Novachuk, Kim Agree to Buy KAZ Minerals for 640 Pence/Share
- European Stocks Dive Again With More Lockdowns Piling Up
- Johnson’s Unhappy Tories Fight Each Other Over U.K. Virus Plans
In FX, the Buck has reclaimed its safe-haven mantle and is firmer vs all G10 peers, bar the Yen amidst a severe downturn in risk sentiment on heightened concerns about the exponential 2nd coming of COVID-19 that is threatening to shutdown several European economies, while forcing others to reimpose stricter measures to combat the pandemic. The index has duly rebounded above 93.000 after an agonisingly close test of Monday’s low yesterday, and has registered a fresh w-t-d peak at 93.401 to expose half round number resistance at 93.500 that is arguably only being protected by the fact that Usd/Jpy has retreated further from recent highs and further towards 104.00.
- AUD – Aside from the generally deteriorating tone, fractionally firmer than forecast q/q inflation in Q3 has partly countered more dovish overtones from the RBA to keep the Aussie afloat on the 0.7100 handle, albeit some distance from 0.7150+ highs due to headwinds from weaker PBoC midpoint Cny fix without the counter-cyclical quotient (6.7195 vs 6.6989 previously).
- GBP/NZD/CAD/EUR/CHF – Sterling has finally succumbed to what seemed like the inevitable as clearly substantial support and bids around the 1.3000 mark in Cable has yielded to a breach of DMAs sitting on top of 1.2990 stops that have now been triggered to a circa 1.2964 trough. Similarly, the Kiwi has relinquished 0.6700+ status vs its US counterpart, while running into offers in Aud/Nzd ahead of 1.0600 and the Loonie has lost underlying support from crude prices as the clock ticks down to the BoC, as Usd/Cad rebounds from around 1.3178 to 1.3240. Elsewhere, the Euro is sub-1.1750 as the coronavirus cases mount, but could yet be drawn back to decent option expiry interest between 1.1750-60 (1 bn) and the Franc has fallen beneath 0.9100 following a near miss on Tuesday.
- SCANDI/EM – No shock that the Nok is also tracking the reversal in oil and unwinding outperformance vs the Eur from 10.8000+ at best this week so far to under 10.9000 again, but the Sek has gleaned some encouragement from relatively upbeat Swedish retail sales, in contrast to Norway’s much weaker than expected consumption, plus improvements in consumer and industrial sentiment, with Eur/Sek holding below 10.3500 and well away from very large expiries at 10.4000 (2.2 bn). Conversely, not even a rise in Turkish economic confidence to compliment an upturn in consumer morale or the CBRT flagging a V-shaped GDP rebound in Q3 have rescued the Try from more pronounced depreciation as President Erdogan sticks to a tough line on defending its border with Syria. Hence, the Lira continues to sink and is now eyeing 8.3000 vs 8.2920 at worst, so far.
In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures succumbed to the early pressure in sentiment around the European equity cash open (see equity section); fresh fundamental drivers were lacking but the move was seemingly driven by intensifying COVID-19 concerns with various areas considering/to implement lockdowns. Alongside having a broad sentiment effect such newsflow would have directly impacted crude prices given the demand-side implications that further lockdowns would likely entail. At present, WTI and Brent Dec’20 & Jan’21 respectively are posting losses in excess of 3% and are in proximity to session lows with Hurricane Zeta unable to offset the decline via its supply-side implications; particularly as a number of rigs have indicated they will continue operations through the storm. The most recent BSEE update showed just shy of 50% of oil production shut-in for the Gulf of Mexico, with the survey encapsulating a much more representative 38 companies compared to the 7 in the initial report for Hurricane/Strom Zeta. Data wise, the private inventories showed a build of 4.58mln last night and expectations for today’s EIA’s are for a slightly more modest build of 1.23mln. Moving to metals, spot gold is subdued this morning in-spite of the risk tone as the metal succumbs to pressure from the DXY which has continued to print highs throughout the morning; at present, spot gold is in proximity to the USD 1900/oz mark.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $84.5b deficit, prior $82.9b deficit
- 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The pandemic has interfered with my once in every five year trip to the theatre. We were going to see Hamilton this past weekend but of course it was cancelled some time ago. However after buying a subscription to Disney+ for the children we stumbled across their exclusive film recording of the show over the last two nights (too long for one sitting). I must admit for someone who doesn’t really like musicals I was seriously impressed.
Given the mounting covid restrictions our family may be getting good value out of our Disney+ subscription over the coming weeks. France and Germany look set to move towards some form of “lockdown lite” over the next 24-48 hours with more info likely today and tomorrow. For France it was reported that this could be based around a new one-month lockdown starting midnight on Thursday, though it will be more flexible than the initial one from last Spring. We’ll find out more tonight from President Macron’s address to the nation. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Merkel, according to reports out of Germany, is aiming for tough restrictions of her own that will be released to Germany’s 16 state premiers at a meeting tomorrow. While schools and daycares will remain open, restaurants will be shuttered and all major events would be cancelled as of tomorrow if reports on Bloomberg are correct. Germany’s Bild newspaper has confirmed this theme this morning adding that Merkel wants to close fitness studios, casinos, bars and cinemas with restaurants only offering take-outs.
So the virus news doesn’t get much better and I suppose the problem with the second wave is that although we are far better prepared than we were for the first wave the reality is that the first wave occurred late in the traditional flu/cold/virus season. The second wave still hasn’t even hit November or December yet and we’re still seeing cases soar in many places.
Asian markets are mixed this morning with the Shanghai Comp (+0.36%) and Kospi (+0.30%) up while the Nikkei (-0.45%) and Hang Seng (-0.18%) are down. Futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.56%. In FX, the US dollar index is up +0.18%. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil prices are down -2.20% and Microsoft was down -1.74% in after hours trading as forecast for revenue in some divisions fell short of the highest analysts’ projections.
Earlier European equities gave ground for the second straight day as worries over rising case numbers and the ensuing restrictions continued to take hold. The STOXX 600 closed down -0.95% to its lowest level since 29 May. The overall negative sentiment bled through markets and pulled down European Banks (-3.27%), even as HSBC rose +5% initially (+3.37% at the close) after signaling it could resume dividends, while Spain’s Santander initially rose +3.8% (-1.46% at the close) after beating earnings expectations. Other bourses saw deeper loses with the IBEX (-2.14%), CAC 40 (-1.77%), FTSE 100 (-1.09%), and FTSE MIB (-1.53%) falling further.
The fading risk sentiment globally saw sovereign yields decline once more. US 10yr Treasury yields came in -3.3bps while 10yr gilt yields were down -4.3bps and bund yields down -3.5bps. There was a slight amount of widening in peripheral spreads to bunds, except for Italy where the possible passage of a €5bn fiscal stimulus bill may have helped the spread of 10yr BTPs to bunds to tighten (-0.4bps) slightly. Other havens were mixed, as the dollar ticked slightly lower (-0.11%) and gold rallied +0.31% to $1908/oz.
With regards to the election this time next week we will be waking up to the morning after the night before. It is not yet clear that we will have a winner at this time as many State Secretaries and voting commissions are hedging their bets that they will indeed be able to project the winner by next Wednesday morning. We are likely to have some states counted though, particularly from those who are able to process and count mail in ballots ahead of November 3. Former Vice President Biden remains +9.1pts and +7.4pts ahead in the fivethirtyeight and realclearpolitics polling averages respectively, while the former’s model gives him an 88% chance of winning – the highest yet – even if the poll lead has fallen from the recent peaks. Florida is likely one state to pay close attention to next Tuesday night as the state has experience with large numbers of mail ballots, polls close fairly early in the night, and without that state President Trump’s paths to victory dwindle precipitously. Realclearpolitics has the race effectively tied in the state now, with Mr Trump technically edging ahead for the first time by +0.4pp, though fivethirtyeight, which weights polls on quality, has Mr Biden up by +2.0pps.
Rising covid-19 cases continue to be in focus. Russia, which is seeing record highs in newly confirmed cases and deaths in recent days, is not expected to reintroduce new mobility restrictions. However, as of today, mask-wearing will be mandatory in some public places and the country may look to limit restaurant hours. Much of Eastern Europe which largely missed the first wave is currently seeing record numbers of weekly cases per 10k including the Czech Republic (81.3), Romania (15.2), Hungary (14.1) and Bulgaria (13.7). While testing has been a clear differentiator, the latter three still trail the sharp rise seen in parts of Western Europe that are seeing the virus for the second time including Belgium (89.2), France (41.1), Netherlands (39.4), Switzerland (47.2) and the UK (22.9). Meanwhile, France reported 530 fatalities yesterday, the largest one day jump since April 22.
In the US, Covid-19 hospitisations are up at least 10% in the last week in 32 states as the current case spike is translating into hospital visits. Illinois, which has been a hot spot in recent weeks announced that indoor dining will be suspended in Chicago starting Friday, as hospital admissions have doubled in the last month. Similarly positivity rates for tests have doubled since early October there. Denver, Colorado also expanded restrictions by limiting business capacity to 25% as of yesterday, with stay-at-home orders being considered.
We got some vaccine news as Novavax announced they would need to delay their late-stage study of its Covid-19 vaccine until late November. Competitor Pfizer indicated that its late-stage trial had not yet conducted an interim efficacy analysis as fewer than 32 cases of Covid-19 have occurred among the trial’s participants. Once that level is reached, in a trial that currently has over 42,000 patients, the first of four efficacy analysis can be conducted. This pushes back the vaccine timeline slightly as there were hopes we would have their efficacy data this week. There was some talk about it being delayed to avoid it being politicised this close to the election although this was only speculation. The company remains “cautiously optimistic” that the vaccine will work though based on the robust immune response from early trials. Overnight, Pfizer’s CEO has reiterated that the company may know by the end of October whether its vaccine is effective.
There was a slew of US data yesterday that showed that the recovery still had momentum, with most data points beating estimates. The preliminary September durable goods orders outperformed (1.9% vs 0.5% expected) while nondefence capital goods orders ex-air came in above expectation as well (1.0% vs 0.5). It was a good sign for manufacturers who have seen steady recent demand. August’s FHFA house price index was +1.5%, well above the +0.7% expected and July’s +1.0% reading. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was up to 29 (vs 18 expected), the largest reading for the index since September 2018. Lastly, October’s Conference Board consumer confidence reading just missed at 100.9 (vs 102.0 expected) and down a touch from last month’s 101.3 reading.
Data today will include France’s October consumer confidence as well as the US’s weekly MBA mortgage applications and preliminary September wholesale inventories. From global central banks there will be monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Central Bank of Brazil. Earnings season continues, with Visa, Mastercard, United Parcel Service, Amgen, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, Ford Motor Company, General Electric and Nomura all reporting.
3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.92 PTS OR .46% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.39 /The Nikkei closed DOWN 67.29 POINTS OR 0.29%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .23%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 37.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 39.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7153. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7218 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
South Korea
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C CHINA
CHINA/USA
China becomes increasingly belligerent as they warn the west on attempts to help Taiwan and India
(zerohedge)
As Pompeo & Esper Push Anti-China Message In India, PLA Vows “Defeat Of Attempts To Separate Taiwan”
Late in the day Monday the US State Department formally approved sails of $2.37 billion in advanced weapons, namely Coastal Missile Defense Systems and related hardware to Taiwan.
And on Tuesday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense chief Mark Esper were in India meeting with their counterparts, reportedly discussing military satellite information sharing as well as Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
India is a major regional nuclear armed power that Washington sees as key in humbling Chinese ambitions. Pompeo’s statements articulated this precisely:
“The United States will stand with the people of India as they confront threats to their freedom and sovereignty.” Pompeo said in specific reference to the Chinese Communist Party. “Our leaders and our citizens see with increasing clarity that the CCP is no friend to democracy, the rule of law, transparency, nor to freedom of navigation — the foundation of a free and open and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”
Esper’s remarks after signing a key defense agreement with India, which importantly comes amid the Himalayan border standoff and tensions between New Delhi and Beijing, also highlighted the importance of a united front against China:
During a press conference Tuesday in the Indian capital, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh announced the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), enabling greater information-sharing and further defense cooperation between the two countries.
“The defense ties between our two nations remains a key pillar of our overall bilateral relationship,” Esper said. “Based on our shared values and common interests, we stand shoulder to shoulder in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific for all, particularly in light of increasing aggression and destabilizing activities by China.”
No doubt this will raise tensions surrounding what Beijing sees as the most immediate threat of Taiwan’s independence. It’s lately been accusing the US of undermining the longtime status quo ‘One China’ policy which has kept relative peace and order in the region.
China’s response to the US approval of the coastal defense missile sales to Taiwan came in state media as follows:
Chinese mainland experts warned that although these missiles won’t be able to threaten the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) effectively, this is a greater provocation than in the past, as the weapons are not for self-defense but can reach the coastal regions of the mainland.
China urged the US to stop the relevant arms sales and military connections with the island, and cancel relevant arms sale plans to prevent further damage to China-US relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a routine press conference on Tuesday, noting that “China will take legitimate and necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests with firm determination.”
The MoD statement assured that the Chinese PLA Army is fully capable of “defeating attempts to separate Taiwan” in a message unmistakably meant to put the US on notice that it would mean certain war.
END
CHINA/USA
China will not be happy with this as 5 people are arrested as “illegal agents” of China in an FBI bust on USA soil
(zerohedge)
Five Arrested As “Illegal Agents” Of China In FBI Bust Of Major PRC Operation On US Soil
The US Justice Department announced charges against eight individuals it says acted as “illegal agents” of China on Wednesday. Specifically the statement alleged they had been engaged in an organized campaign of intimating Chinese citizens currently on American soil.
Five of these have already been arrested while at least one other is being sought by US law enforcement. The DoJ’s National Security division Assistant Attorney General John Demers announced at a press briefing:
“[I am here] to announce charges against eight individuals for acting as agents of the People’s Republic of China while taking part in an illegal Chinese law enforcement operation known as Fox Hunt here in the United States.”
They are said to have “assisted PRC officials in a scheme to coerce certain individuals to return to the PRC against their will,” according to acting United States Attorney Seth DuCharme.
In the DOJ press conference FBI Director Christopher Wray called it “outrageous” that Beijing would think it can get away with conducting illegal operations on US soil. He said it was aimed to “bend people here in the United States to their will.”
Here’s how Wray described the operation Wednesday:
In this case, once victims reported China’s harassment to the FBI, we began a multi-year investigation in order to bring the perpetrators to justice and vindicate the rule of law. And the FBI is proud to have this investigation culminate in criminal charges—the first of their kind. Charges that will help China understand that surveilling, stalking, harassing, and blackmailing our citizens and lawful permanent residents carries serious risks.
That message is particularly important, because the sad fact is that this was hardly an isolated incident—and China’s tactics have been appalling. As AAG Demers described, Fox Hunt is a sweeping bid by General Secretary Xi and the Chinese Communist Party to target Chinese nationals here in the United States and across the world who are viewed as threats to the regime.
Considering the FBI Director singled out Xi in particular, this will surely be met with a fierce reaction out of Beijing. It’s also being described as part of ‘Operation SkyNet’ – first reported years ago as China’s attempt to nab its nationals suspected of corruption who had fled abroad.
But DOJ officials said this was a smokescreen for an operation which in reality cracks down own political dissidents and rival critics of Xi and the ruling communist party.
ABC reports one particular example of the Chinese stalking of those legally in America as follows:
Among the targets was a resident of New Jersey identified in court records as John Doe-1, whose elderly father was brought to the U.S. from China against his will “to use the surprise arrival… to threaten and attempt to coerce John Doe-1’s return to the PRC,” prosecutors said.
As part of the campaign to exert pressure on John Doe-1 his adult daughter was put under surveillance and targeted for online harassment, according to court records. Later, unsolicited packages were sent to his residence with letters and videos threatening harm to family members if he did not return.
It was apparently a multi-year campaign to surveil and harass Chinese citizens on US soil under the rationale that they were suspected of crimes in China. “Hongru Jin, Zhu Yong and Michael McMahon were arrested in the Northeast. Rong Jing and Zheng Congving were arrested in California. Zhu Feng remains at large,” ABC reports further.
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
SPAIN
It was bound to happen; Spanish doctors stage the first walkout in 25 years to protest government’s new COVID 19 order
(zerohedge)_
Spanish Doctors Stage First Walkout In 25 Years To Protest Government’s New COVID-19 Order
Doctors across Spain have walked out on Tuesday in what media outlets have called the first medical strike to rock the country in 25 years.
As the coronavirus pandemic rages across Spain, where the Health Ministry reported another 18,418 new daily cases on Tuesday, doctors are beginning the strike, which was called in defiance of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s latest emergency order, which was implemented on Sunday.
The order requires doctors and nurses to report to any of a range of assignments that could be handed to them by the government during the state of emergency, which could be in place for months.
Doctors complained that the new law violated their rights, and compromised the standard of care for patients, as doctors would end up working in an area they weren’t specialized in.
The strike will continue indefinitely, with doctors set to continue striking on the last Tuesday of every month until a deal has been reached.
For the first time, 200,000 new cases were confirmed in Spain over the previous two weeks, and cases on Tuesday were up 33% compared with the prior week. And over the last 24 hours, another 267 people have died.
“The Health Ministry hasn’t even dignified us with a meeting to try and get us to call off the strike,” he told Spanish health journal iSanidad.
Spain’s hospitals harbor nearly 16,700 active COVID-19 patients – up more than 600 compared to Monday, with one quarter of all the country’s ICU units used to treat those with an infectious disease.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
TURKEY
The Turkish lira experiences a huge bloodbath falling to 8.30 before settling at 8.27 to the dollar as their inflation rate rises by a full 3%
(zerohedge)
Turkish Bloodbath: Lira Plunges To Record Low After CBRT Hikes Inflation Target
Another day, another bloodbath for the Turkish lira.
After tumbling to an all time low of 8.20 against the dollar late in Tuesday trading, the Turkish currency plunged to a new all time low this morning sliding 1.4% to 8.302 and extending earlier losses after the Turkish central bank raised its inflation outlook by more than 3% after a series of surprise interest-rate decisions failed to bolster a lira weakened by policy steps and international spats, and strongly hinting that the central bank appears resigned to a much weaker currency .
Consumer-price growth will finish the year at 12.1%, compared with a previous forecast of 8.9%, Governor Murat Uysal said Wednesday in Istanbul as he unveiled the final inflation report of 2020. He added that the central bank will maintain its tight monetary policy until inflation improves, warning that a weak lira poses risks to price stability.
Well, price stability only worsened because the currency extended its drop as the governor spoke…
… as it is now unclear what else the CBRT can do: having first eased monetary policy to boost the currency, then tightening, no matter what the central bank does the Turkish lira remains a one-way trade where any remaining longs get steamrolled on a daily basis.
“In the period ahead, we can take all the necessary steps, including on policy interest rates, to control inflation by monitoring price developments,” Uysal said. The lira is “extremely undervalued,” he said.
Uysal also crushed hopes for a possible central bankafter saying that the central bank has no target for the the nominal or real exchange rate but is sensitive to volatility that could jeopardize stability.
Some more highlights of his speech:
- Inflation to decline to 9.4% by the end of 2021, also an upward revision from 6.2%
- End-2020 food inflation estimated at 13.5%, compared with 10.5% previously
- The central bank’s 2020 average oil price forecast remains unchanged at $41.6 per barrel
- Inflation to slow following the first quarter next year
As Bloomberg notes, the central bank’s latest projections suggest an even bleaker outlook for inflation this year than forecast by the government. Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak raised government forecasts in September to 10.5% at the end of 2020 and 8% the following year. The projections came a week after the central bank delivered a surprise 200-basis-point rate hike that was intended to stem the slide in the currency.
Investors considered it insufficient, however, and the lira continued to fall, buffeted by geopolitical risk as Turkey intervened in conflicts and renewed diplomatic tussles over energy finds in the Mediterranean.
Another unexpected decision followed on Oct. 22, when the central bank held the benchmark while raising the upper bound of its interest-rate corridor. That rattled markets as it signaled the central bank’s once more focused on stealth tightening to support the currency.
“Pressures on inflation and the lira are likely to push the Turkish central bank to being more conventional,” according to VTB Capital analyst Akin Tuzun, who expects an outright rate hike in November.
In devising policy, the governor must weigh market reaction with the demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who continues to cast a long shadow over monetary policy.
Erdogan handpicked Uysal to replace a governor who had failed to comply with his wishes to cut interest rates. The Turkish leader is a firm believer that high borrowing costs fuel inflation. Most economists and central banks around the world believe the opposite. And now, the Turkish currency which is in absolute collapse, is paying the price for Erdogan’s “monetary unorthodoxy.”
The governor also said he expects the exchange rate to normalize in the medium term saying that state banks are active in the currency market from time to time, alas not today with the Turkish population increasingly rushing to converts its worthless lira into something tangible.
Finally, the central banker said reserves are sufficient to meet short-term needs, with Turkey in the final stage of securing new currency swap deals. Unfortunately, the market now appears focused on the medium and long-term needs, and it is there that it sees the all too real possibility the country runs out of FX reserves…
6.Global Issues
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1738 DOWN .0047 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 104.30 DOWN 0.239 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2952 DOWN 0.0079 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/
USA/CAN 1.3271 UP .0077 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 47 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 14.92 PTS OR .46%
//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.39 PTS OR .32%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.23%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.39 PTS OR .32%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.92 PTS OR .46%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.23%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 67.29 POINTS OR 0.29%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1890.00
silver:$23.92-
Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.764% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 1.547 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 93.47 UP 53 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.15% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.025.% DOWN 1 1/2 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.17%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.77 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 60 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.62% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.39% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1750 DOWN .0032 or 32 basis points
USA/Japan: 104.35 DOWN .209 OR YEN UP 21 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2983 DOWN .0047 POUND DOWN 47 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 125 basis points to 1.3317
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The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed DOWN AT 6.7290 ON SHORE (DOWN)..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.7283 (YUAN DOWN)..
TURKISH LIRA: 8.2712 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.025%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.776 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.558 UP 0 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.45 UP 51 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 146.19 2.55%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 503.06 POINTS OR 4.17%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 159.54 POINTS 2.66%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 176.90 POINTS or 2.66%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 757/16 POINTS OR 4.06%
WTI Oil price; 37,32 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 39.75 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 79.19 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.90 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 190 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.62 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 37.32//
BRENT : 39.04
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.776..up 0 basis points…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.558 up 0 basis points..
EURO/USA 1.1750 ( DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.35 DOWN .209 (YEN UP 21 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.45 UP 51 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2983 DOWN 47 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 8.2712
the Russian rouble 79.19 DOWN 1.90 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 190 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3312 DOWN 125 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.62%
The Dow closed DOWN 943.24 POINTS OR 3.43%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 426.48 POINTS OR 3.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 40.28 CLOSED UP 6.93
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.234%//libor dropping like a stone
USA trading today in Graph Form
Lockdown Loquaciousness Launches Licentious Liquidations
It seems all the talk about lockdowns has finally triggered more than a few snowflakes as today’s price action had the feel of widespread liquidation with stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto all being dumped as safe-haven flows sent the dollar soaring…
Statistically, today is the best day of the year for the S&P 500 (which is somewhat offset by the fact that historically, tomorrow is the date when the Great Depression started in 1929), but today was ugly with all the major US equity indices down 3-4% (Nasdaq was the laggard, worst day since Sept 8th – Nasdaq down 9 of last 12 days)…
Stoxx 600 fell to its lowest since May, plunging over 3% today. Merkel’s decision to reinstate lockdowns sparked the worst day for DAX since March…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s plunge erased all of October’s gains for the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq (Small Caps remain green)…
The Dow is back at early August lows, crashing almost 1000 points today…Double-Top Much?
So what happens next?
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds are signaling the same…
Source: Bloomberg
All the major US equity indices broke below key technical levels (50-day moving-average) and the S&P broke below its 100DMA
The opening puke was on the back of the 4th biggest sell-program this year…
Source: Bloomberg
Value continues to be dumped in favor of momentum (growth stocks were also liquidated today)…
Source: Bloomberg
FANG stocks slumped today…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX and stocks remain notably decoupled…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX surged above 40, its highest since June…
The VIX term structure surged even more into backwardation after its brief contango around the election…
Source: Bloomberg
Implied Correlation surged once again, flashing a very red flag that traders are preparing for an imminent systemic event…
Source: Bloomberg
Today was ‘different’ as from the open of the cash equity market, bonds and stocks were both sold…
Source: Bloomberg
Which reflexively sparked ugliness in risk-parity-land…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds & Stocks combined had their worst day since June today…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields were all marginally higher on the day (despite the equity weakness) with the long-end marginally worse than the short-end…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yield bounced of 75bps at the US equity cash open…
Source: Bloomberg
Real yields rose notably on the day, weighing on gold…
Source: Bloomberg
And all this liquidation sent the USDollar higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were mixed with Bitcoin and Ethereum lower and Bitcoin Cash bid…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was also liquidated, back below $13000, but bounced back above it in the afternoon…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar gains (and liquidations) sent commodities reeling with oil crashing (not helped by inventory and demand fears), pushing WTI below $40 (actually briefly trading with a $36 handle)…
Gold clubbed like a baby seal back below $1900…
And silver slammed back under $24…
And finally, the odds of a ‘blue-wave’ continue to slide…
Source: Bloomberg
And the “PCR casedemic” continues to rage but the “deaths”… not so much!
Source: Bloomberg
Probably nothing…
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls
ii)Market data/USA
basket case Boeing burns through another $5 billion in Q3 and will cut another 11,000 workers
(zerohedge)
Boeing Beats As It Burns $5 Billion In Q3, Will Cut Another 11,000 Workers
Boeing stock rebounded after the struggling aerospace giant reported sales, EPS and cash burn that were stronger than expected, and announced it was looking to fire another 7,000 workers while 4,000 would be lost through attrition as it now expects a workforce of only 130,000 by the end of 2021, down sharply from 160,000 at the start of 2020. The reason: the company said it was still “significantly impacted” by Covid-19, and the ongoing 737 Max woes.
A quick recap of Boeing’s Q3 numbers:
- Revenue $14.14 billion, -29% y/y, beating the estimate $13.84 billion
- Core loss per share $1.39 vs. EPS $1.45 y/y, beating the estimate loss/share $2.08
Boeing said Q3 operating margin decreased to 7.3% primarily due to lower commercial services volume and additional severance costs.
On the production front, the total backlog dropped 16% Y/Y to just $393 billion, or about 4,300 commercial planes
Commercial plane deliveries were ugly, tumbling 56%Y/Y to just 28, if a +40% improvement q/q; Commercial Airplanes revenue of $3.60 billion was in line with estimates of $3.60 billion.
Elsewhere, Defense, Space & Security revenue was $6.85 billion, estimate $7.12 billion, while Global Services revenue $3.69 billion, estimate $3.59 billion.
In a presentation slide on 737 Max, Boeing said Commercial Airplanes expensed $590MM of abnormal production costs during three months ended Sept. 30.
Boeing also reported that Q3 operating cash burn rose to $4.82 billion, doubling from a year ago, if slightly better than the estimated cash burn of $4.92 billion.
Amusingly, the company which last quarter was on the verge of collapse, still has an investment grade BBB-/Baa2 rating with a debt load of over $60 billion. Meanwhile, its cash declined by over $5 billion in the quarter, from $32.4BN to $27.1BN.
Of course, one could argue that none of the company’s earnings matter and the only thing investors want to know is when will things get back to normal, and according to the report, passenger traffic will returning to 2019 levels in 3 years.
Until then, the company has to slash costs, which is why Boeing’s CEO Dave Calhoun told employees that the company aims to have a staff of 130,000 by the end of 2021 according to CNBC. Earlier this year, Boeing targeted a 10% cut to its staff, which stood at 160,000 people at the start of the year.
“As we align to market realities, our business units and functions are carefully making staffing decisions to prioritize natural attrition and stability in order to limit the impact on our people and our company,” CEO Dave Calhoun said in a staff note. “We anticipate a workforce of about 130,000 employees by the end of 2021. Throughout this process, we will communicate with you every step of the way.”
Meanwhile as Boeing sill struggles with its “cost-cutting” 737 MAX crisis which started two years ago and grounded the fleet of airplanes, the pandemic’s impact on air travel demand, which is still not back to half of last year’s levels, has further worsened Boeing’s plight. Regulators are at the tail-end of the planes’ review but have still not signed off on them, preventing Boeing from delivering them to customers and crimping its cash flow as a result.
In response to the slightly stronger than expected results and the continued cost-cutting, the stock was modestly higher in pre-market trading.
iii) Important USA Economic Stories
ILLINOIS
Winter is approaching but that did not stop its Governor from ending indoor dining across 2/3 of the state
(zerohedge)
Illinois Gov Ends Indoor Dining Across 2/3rds Of State As Winter Cold Looms
After imposing tighter restrictions in suburban Cook County and the populous Metro East region (the part of Illinois that includes the suburbs of St. Louis) on Monday, Illinois Gov JB Pritzker has imposed similarly harsh restrictions on the City of Chicago, expanding the number of regions facing the most restrictive measures to 7 out of 11.
Beginning on Friday, indoor dining will be closed along with bar service, and private gatherings will be limited to 25.
Since we’re talking about Chicago in late October, it’s likely few will be willing to brave the cold to eat outside in a two sided tent (since, as the health department clarified yesterday, a four-sided tent outdoors is considered an “indoor tent”).
The city has seen sustained increases in COVID-19 hospitalizations and its COVID-19 test positivity rate, reporting 2x as many hospitalizations per week as it did a month ago.
Chicago has a positivity rate of 7.8%, up from 6.7% a week earlier.
Last week, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot ordered traditional taverns and brewery taprooms that don’t serve food to close, and asked residents to cap gatherings to just 6 people. It marked a reversal from the reopenings she allowed just last month.
And with the holiday season approaching, both mayor and governor are threatening harsher restrictions if the situation doesn’t improved.
Project Veritas Infiltrates Texas ‘Ballot Chasing’ Ring Targeting Senior Citizens
The undercover investigative journalists at Project Veritas have done it again – this time infiltrating a Texas ‘ballot chasing’ operation in Texas which targets senior citizens.
The racket consists of operatives, such as Raquel Rodriguez – “nominally a political consultant for GOP House candidate Mauro E. Garza, the owner of the San Antonio’s Pegasus Nightclub” – who “develops personal relationships with senior citizens when she harvests their ballots and then uses different post offices, so that the bundles do not draw suspicion.“
Despite consulting for a GOP candidate, Rodriguez was caught on camera convincing a voter to switch their ballot from John Cornyn (R) to M.J. Hegar (D).
Journalist: “So, John Cornyn, she voted for John Cornyn and then you made her—”
Raquel Rodriguez: “That’s my job.”
According to Veritas, “After the voter “corrected” her ballot, Rodriguez presented her with a shawl as a gift,” adding “Rodriguez said Garza gave her a gift budget of $2,500 for his campaign, and in addition to the shawls, she gives voters rosaries, diabetic socks and wallets.”
“So, if ya’ll are my seniors, I’m literally picking you up. I’m going to your house, you’re doing your ballot,” Rodriguez told the undercover journalist. “I go throughout the entire city. If I have a bunch of them, what I do if I have a bunch of them, I’ll take 20 [ballots] here, 30 [ballots] here, 40 [ballots] here.”
Raquel Rodriguez: “I can honestly say I’m bringing at least at least 7,000 votes to the polls.”
Journalist: “Seven thousand—and that’s for San Antonio for this area too. It’s a lot.”
Rodriguez: “That’s a lot. It’s a lot, period. Just so you know–have an idea–so this is what I do.”
And read the rest of the report here.
END
New York’s Attorney General is after Trump for supposed tax evasion. However in this latest leak, it seems that Trump is doing everything legal as they strong armed Deutsche bank to forgive 270 million oz loans to his Chicago operation.
(zerohedge0
NYT’s Latest Trump Tax Leak Shows Trump Strong-Armed Deutsche Bank Into Forgiving $270MN
With roughly one week to go before the polls close on Election Day, the New York Times has dropped – what else? – another”bombshell” under the now-infamous heading “The President’s Taxes”.
The MSM is of course still relitigating the claims from this fall’s first big tax bombshell, a 10,000-word piece from the NYT, and others that have been published since.
But in the paper’s latest foray into Trump’s financial history, they visit an episode that has been publicly disclosed before, though the paper adds more details about an “aggressive tax maneuver” undertaken by Trump and his team, as well as offering unprecedented insight into Trump’s extraordinary ability to strongarm lenders, even when eye-popping sums are involved.
The setting for today’s story is the depths of the financial crisis. The location: Chicago, where Trump visited in September 2008, the nadir of the crisis, to celebrate the completion of his 92-floor skyscraper.
After offering the usual boilerplate juxtaposing Trump’s public comments at the opening of the building with the struggles to sell condos in the tower, the NYT noted the following:
Yet for Mr. Trump and his company, the Chicago experience also turned out to be something else: the latest example of his ability to strong-arm major financial institutions and exploit the tax code to cushion the blow of his repeated business failures.
But most importantly, the story lands with a twist: it’s this series of financial victories of Trump over his lenders that is, amazingly, at the core of one of the many investigations currently underway involving Trump and his administration (most of which the public has long stopped caring about). Because New York AG Letitia James’ whole battle over Trump’s tax returns has been centered on whether Trump ‘cheated’ by not paying any taxes on the debts forgiven by Deutsche Bank tied to the Chicago Tower project, and others.
The story of Trump’s business relationship with DB and how he eventually came to take out the loans for the Chicago Tower project is recounted in exhaustive detail. But here’s the interesting part: when Trump applied for his second extension, DB said ‘no’, giving him only six weeks before the bank moved to seize the building.
So what did Trump do? He “went on the offensive,” as the NYT put it. He wrote a letter claiming that the financial crisis was a “force majeure” – an act of God – that entitled him to extra time to repay.
Trump sued, DB and Fortress (which was also brought in on the loan) counter sued, what happened next, like the details above (the broad strokes, at least), were already known.
What wasn’t was the figure that Trump eventually walked away from: Trump was allowed to default on just over $270 million in debt, a deal that, according to the NYT, “few American companies or individuals could ever expect to receive, especially without filing for bankruptcy protection.”
Here’s the key bit:
The forgiven debts showed up in Mr. Trump’s tax returns. For 2010, Mr. Trump’s 401 Mezz Venture reported about $181 million in canceled debts. Two years later, DJT Holdings, an umbrella company that the Chicago project had been folded into, reported that another $105 million of debt had been forgiven. Most of that appears to reflect the unpaid Fortress sum.
A few years later, when the rest of the loan came due, one arm of Deutsche Bank gave the Trump family the money needed to pay another part of the bank.
If anything, for fans of the president, the account of what he accomplished here will only further burnish his reputation as a ruthless businessman – something that helped propel him to the White House.
END
CHICAGO
Chicago on the verge of another credit downgrade as Mayor Lightfoot suggest a novel idea of raising taxes; higher property taxes with everybody leaving the state
(zerohedge)
Chicago On Verge Of Credit Downgrade As Mayor Lightfoot Suggests Novel Idea Of Raising Taxes
Today in “Democrat-run utopia” news…
The city of Chicago appears to be on the precipice of a credit downgrade, according to its Chief Financial Officer Jennie Huang Bennett. She said on Tuesday that she’s “not sure” the city could make it through budget season without facing an inevitable downtick in its rating, according to Bloomberg.
The admission came during a virtual City Council Committee on Budget and Government Operations meeting while answering a question from an alderman about why the city doesn’t take on more debt to keep property taxes lower. Bennett is working to try and balance the city’s budget for a longer term horizon by raising taxes and trying to create consistent revenue streams.
Mayor Lori Lightfoot is looking to implement a property tax increase of $94 million and a refinance of the city’s $1.7 billion in outstanding bonds to try and alleviate some of the financial distress. Because we’re sure citizens of Chicago are in a major rush to fork over more money to a city government that has enabled protests and riots that turned the city into chaos over the summer.
In fact, back in August, we wrote about how Chicago citizens were looking to move out of the city amidst the rise in chaos and Lightfoot’s ineptitude.
The city’s soaring crime was national news this year and many residents were claiming they “no longer feel safe” in the city’s epicenter. Aldermen say their constituents are leaving the city and real estate agents say they are seeing the same.
Real estate broker Rafael Murillo said people were moving to the suburbs quicker than planned: “And then you have the pandemic, so people are spending more and more time in their homes. And in the high-rise, it starts to feel more like a cubicle after awhile.”
Additionally, those who once planned on buying downtown were reconsidering, he said. He said over the summer that had had talked to “three or four” sellers who lived downtown and wanted out so they can move to the suburbs.
He commented: “They want to feel safe. They want to be able to come outside their homes and enjoy their neighborhood amenities, whether it’s running at the park, enjoying a nice little dinner, shopping. But with everything going on, there are a lot of residents who are not feeling safe right now.”
Resident Neil Spun, who has lived in Chicago for more than 30 years, said: “There have been riots before, and looting. It just seems to me now that the city isn’t doing anything about it. I don’t see this getting any better, and so I’d like to leave.”
S&P has the city at BBB+, which is three levels above junk, with a negative outlook. “Ability to absorb the additional pension expenditures and stay on a course to structural balance will be critical to maintaining the rating,” S&P said.
And newsflash to Lori Lightfoot: it’s going to be awfully tough to bring in that extra property tax revenue as citizens turn tail and flee the city…
END
PHILADELPHIA
More rioting on the street
(zerohedge)
Philly Imposes Wednesday Night Curfew To Try And Prevent 3rd Night Of Chaos
Update (1500ET): As Philly braces for a 3rd night of unrest following another police shooting of a black man, the city is imposing a curfew at 2100.
National guard were called in last night, though Trump has offered federal assistance as well.
* * *
Update (1030ET): Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany just tweeted out a statement.
* * *
After 30 officers were wounded on Monday evening, including one who remains hospitalized with a broken leg after being hit by a truck, thousands of looters massed in downtown Philadelphia on Tuesday for a second night of chaos, where entire big box department stores were emptied of merchandise, while officers were attacked and at least one reporter was badly beaten.
Fewer police were injured on Tuesday, possibly due to the fact that they gave the worst of the rioters a wide berth, at one point reporting that there were several thousand people in the afflicted area of West Philadelphia, looting stores and carrying off everything from food to big-screen TVs.
Some on social media couldn’t help but make light of the situation (after all, humor is one of the most effective coping mechanisms).
Of course, it’s not a riot without copious video of masked thieves pouring out of department stores clutching whatever merchandise they could grab.
At one point, the rioters stopped to terrorize a Jewish neighborhood.
The driver of a stolen car recklessly slammed into another driver, tipping over a truck, before the occupants of the stolen vehicle quickly scurried away.
Philly’s national guard mobilized Tuesday in response to the prior night’s unrest, and the police department said even more officers were on the streets. Some reported that a U-Haul was driven up to a Wal-Mart in Philly, where it was quickly filled with merchandise.
Notably, PA’s Dem Governor Tom Wolf broke with other democratic governors and ordered in the guard without hesitation, a clear sign that he’s aware the unrest could impact the results of the upcoming presidential race, in which Philly is a critical swing state (some say whoever wins Philadelphia will carry the day).
In a statement, the White House denounced the violence and looting as yet another consequence of Democratic officials
Philly’s Mayor Jim Kenney yesterday urged everybody to withhold their judgment pending an investigation, though he acknowledged that the footage of the incident was alarming and presents “difficult questions.”
Meanwhile, the official account for the Philly police tweeted throughout the night, first warning citizens to avoid the area of Castor and Aramingo where most of the looting took place.
Outside West Philly (where a certain Fresh Prince was memorably born and raised), about 1,000 other looters hit shops in the Port Richmond neighborhood in the northern section of the city.
At least one lucky individual capitalized on the heat of the moment to propose to his now-fiance.
The violent protests broke out hours after Philadelphia cops shot and killed 27-year-old Walter Wallace Jr. on Monday, after his family summoned police to the house once again for help dealing with his mental health issues. At one point, he advanced on police with knife, after refusing orders to drop it, provoking police to open fire. Police officials said the men weren’t armed with tasers due to budget cuts. Video of the incident went viral on social media. The man’s father told the press that his son had been shot at least ten times, though he denounced the violence and looting.
At least 90 people have been charged in the violent protests so far, police said Tuesday, and that number could rise as investigations continue and the unrest intensifies.
BlazeTV reporter Elijah Shaffer was badly beaten after being jumped by “BLM rioters” while filming inside a store that was being actively looted.
He published footage of the encounter, and its aftermath, below.
Unfortunately, Philly wasn’t the only American city brutalized by riots last night. To recap.
And that was just in the US: In Nigeria, demonstrations continued as international support for a burgeoning police reform movement after soldiers opened fire on protesters a few nights ago.
end
iv) Swamp commentaries)
A must view; Bobulinski exposes the entire Biden-China dealings plus other goodies as they basically prove that the entire Biden family is a criminal organization in a pay for play scheme, exactly the same as Hillary Clinton
(zerohedge)
‘You’re Gonna Bury All Of Us’: Whistleblower Describes Brazen Biden-China Dealings In Explosive Interview With Tucker Carlson
Former Biden insider Tony Bobulinski – a registered Democrat who’s donated to Democrats – just gave a smoking gun interview to Fox News’ Tucker Carlson on Tuesday, where he described his dealings with the Biden family in their bid to do business with China.
Bobulinski says that “Joe Biden and his family is compromised,” after describing dealings that included purchasing a portion of a Russian state-owned energy company.
In May, 2017, Bobulinski agreed to spearhead a deal between the Bidens and a CCP-linked Chinese company – meeting with Hunter Biden and Rosemont Seneca partner Rob Walker “multiple times,” and meeting with former Vice President Joe Biden twice.
Bobulinski described a May 2nd meeting at the Los Angeles Beverly Hilton with Hunter and Jim Biden. A short while later, Joe Biden reportedly showed up to the meeting “because they were sort of, wining and dining me, and presenting the strength of the Biden family to get me more engaged” in their China deal with CEFC “both in the United States and around the world.”
Plausible deniability:
“There was no other reason for me to be in that bar meeting Joe Biden then to discuss what I was doing with his family’s name and the Chinese.“
Adam Schiff
When Hunter Biden’s laptop became national news – Rep. Adam Schiff suggested it was Russian disinformation, implying that he was a Russian asset. Bobulinsky made it explicitly clear that he would go public if Schiff didn’t retract his Russia smear – to which Biden family adviser Rob Walker said “You’re just gonna bury all of us.”
More:
-Joe Biden gave “an emphatic no” to “putting proper governance in place.”
– “I think Joe Biden and his family are compromised…”
– A former Seal Team is protecting his family:
Watch the entire interview below:
Meanwhile on the latest episode of ‘enemies of the state’:
“You Better Apologize For That!”: Rudy Giuliani Goes Nuclear On Fox Host After Christopher Steele Comparison
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani unloaded on Fox Business host Kennedy after she compared him to Christopher Steele, the former UK spook who Hillary Clinton’s campaign paid to fabricate a now-debunked dossier alleging ties between President Trump and the Kremlin.
After host Lisa “Kennedy” Montgomery began framing a question about Biden corruption with “it sounds like there may be something here that is fishy that is giving Americans pause, and now there’s stuff that – uh, might have been completely adulterated…” adding “Some could say that you were acting like Christopher Steele. That you were extracting information –“
To which Giuliani interjected: “You’ve gotta be kidding me. I was acting like Christopher Steele?”
“That’s what it sounds like,” the former MTV VJ responded.
“You better apologize for that,” Giuliani fired back. “I mean I’ve been a United States attorney, associate attorney general, mayor of New York City and a member of the bar for 50 years. I’ve never been accused of anything, and you’re accusing me of being Christopher Steele?”
“That’s outrageous that you would do that, based on nothing! Similar to a crook? Similar to obstruction of Justice? What you’re saying is an outrageous defamation of me, of my reputation,” he added. Every single thing is here. And I want you to look at it, and then you apologize to me!”
“You can come to my office and you can look at it, and tomorrow night you can apologize to me for saying I’m like Christopher Steele,” Giuliani continued. “I told you there are underage girls there – there are. I told you there are documents that show that he’s getting 10% – there are. There are documents that show that he’s getting half of what Hunter gets – there are. And when they’re there, I want you to apologize to me, because you just defamed me. That’s outrageous, because you have no basis for that. I came on your show in good faith to give you evidence that is being withheld from the American people, and I get defamed. That’s outrageous!”
Watch:
“We’re Going To Make Sure Trump Leaves”: Leftists Plan To Storm DC After Election
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
A far left group is vowing to “make sure Trump leaves” the White House after the election, even if he wins, with radicals preparing to storm and occupy DC.
The Shut Down DC group says it will “be in the streets before the polls even close,” asserting that “Trump will not leave office without mass mobilization and direct action.”
“On Election Day, when you’re done voting, doing election protection, or getting out the vote, come join us at Black Lives Matter Plaza,” states the group’s manifesto.
“We’re inviting everybody who agrees with these organizing principles to work together to make this uprising happen. We’re going to make sure Trump leaves.”
Quite how the group is going to make Trump leave the White House on election day is somewhat baffling, given that even if he loses he doesn’t have to officially leave office until next year.
The extremist group is planning to block highways, shut down ports and occupy state capitols if Trump “tries to steal the election” (ie wins it), while also vowing to harass members of Congress at their own homes.
“We’ll meet them at the train station or the airports or if they drive into town we can meet them at their homes,” states the group.
Bragging about how mobs of leftists protested outside Sen. Lindsay Graham’s (R-SC) house before sunrise, the organization is conducting “mass rebellion training” in the event of Trump attempting a “coup”.
If a right-wing group had published such a manifesto, it would be nationally demonized as a domestic terrorist outfit and face immediate federal investigation.
As it is, Shut Down DC’s call to arms has received virtually no mainstream media attention whatsoever.
* * *
END
v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.
Rising European Covid cases have weighed on European stocks in recent sessions. The bleak prospect for a US stimulus package induced a severe decline in Asian and European stocks as well as ESZs on Monday. US stocks opened lower, but rallied. At 10:22 ET, US stocks commenced a plunge on this:
Industrial stocks tank after China sanctions Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon over Taiwan sales [China’s ‘October Surprise’ to hurt DJT before the election.]
@CBSNews: Dow plunges 900 points as coronavirus cases keep rising
@realDonaldTrump tweeted at 8:46 AM on Mon, Oct 26, 2020: Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all-time high. On November 4th, topic will totally change. VOTE!
@zerohedge: JPM: “over 70% of the increase in number of US cases has been due to increased testing“
Two months ago, our doctor advised us to get the ‘stronger’ flu shot ASAP because it takes a few weeks to take hold and “Cold & Flu Season begins in October. So, we got the shot and boosted our Vitamin C intake. Last year we caught one of the worst flu bugs we ever had after Halloween. It lasted about three weeks and we had persisted dry coughing. PS – The morning rain has turned to snow as we write. There’s no better indication of ‘Cold & Flu Season’ than freezing rain morphing into snow!
The MSM has been ignoring numerous medical articles that note flu has virtually disappeared globally. This indicates Covid prevents flu or flu is being misdiagnosed as Covid. This is not a narrative that the MSM wants to announce just ahead of the election.
Confirmed influenza cases hit rock-bottom, puzzling infectious disease experts
World Health Organization global flu surveillance shows a severe drop-off in flu cases starting in early April; whereas in past years flu cases are sustained at a steady plateau over the mid-year months — driven by the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season — WHO observation has cases more or less disappearing from April onwards…Yet coronavirus cases nevertheless continued to circulate in many areas with stringent lockdowns… https://justthenews.com/nation/confirmed-influenza-cases-hit-rock-bottom-amid-rising-covid-numbers
There is another dynamic that might be weighing on equities. Wall Street solons and elites have poured beaucoup donations into Biden and very little into Trump. The Street wants Joe to win. For the past few months, numerous Street strategists and pundits have told clients and the media that Joe would be good for stocks and the coming ‘Blue Wave’ would be the optimal outcome for the stock market.
Well, as we keep noting, the data doesn’t support a Blue Wave and favors DJT and the GOP. As we have opined for months, polls are now tightening because pollsters have to salvage their reputations.
President Donald Trump TAKES LEAD Over Joe Biden in Rasmussen Daily ‘White House Watch’ — 4 Point Swing in ONE WEEK https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-president-donald-trump-takes-lead-joe-biden-rasmussen-daily-white-house-watch-4-point-swing-one-week/
Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show Polls Are Wrong–Republicans Storm the Polls, Now Ahead in WI – Republicans crash Wisconsin early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead
As of Monday afternoon, 42% of mailed-in and early-voted Wisconsin ballots are GOP; 36% are Dem.
https://twitter.com/SunshineSt8Sam/status/1320803694569496582/photo/1
The NYT’s @tripgabriel: Some concerns for Biden in PA polling, including in Philly, where he’s running 10 points behind Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016 and Trump is ~9 points ahead of where he was four years ago. Also, Trump is 9 points behind the support he had in 2016 in the Philly suburbs. But Biden is only 3 points better than Hillary Clinton’s suburban support.
Trafalgar, the sole pollster in 2016 that had Trump winning PA (+1), has DJT +2 in the Keystone State.
Politico: Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead
Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches…taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots… https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135
Are these experimental polling questions pointing to a Trump victory? [Pollster got 2016 right]
Two new questions added to the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll this year, reported separately from the main results, predict that the national popular vote for president could be much closer than most polls are predicting. They also suggest Trump will once again win the election in the Electoral College…
The “social-circle question” asks respondents to report the percentage of their social contacts they expect to vote for each of the candidates. The other one, known as the “state winner question,” asks participants who they think will win the election in their state…
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3338/experimental-polling-point-to-trump-victory/
Suddenly, Street pundits are now walking back their predictions of a ‘Blue Wave’ and Biden win. If you poured into stocks because of a ‘Blue Wave’ and/or Biden win, what do you do now?
Wall Street Begins Hedging: JPM Says Trump Victory Is “Most Favorable Outcome”, Would Push S&P to 3,900 – in a dramatic reversal from the recent narrative which present a “Blue Sweep” as the most beneficial outcome from the election, the JPMorgan strategist writes that he maintains a probability weighted S&P 500 price target of 3,600 for year-end, and sees “an orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900)… last week we analyzed voter registration data and their possible implication for State outcomes, while this week we analyzed Twitter sentiment on US election and compared it with the traditional polling data – they all point to a tightening race.” …
The notion that a ‘Blue Wave’ and Biden win was the optimal outcome for stocks is as absurd as the proffered notion four years ago that a Trump win would ignite a depression and 30% stock crash.
Joe had a bad day on Saturday with new sordid allegations appearing. So, he called a lid for Sunday. Joe and Kamala had a disappointing “60 Minutes” appearance, even though they were playing in the friendly confines. Host Norah O’Donnell added after Joe’s segment that the ‘Biden campaign said Joe misspoke’ when he said: “I can send every single qualified person to a four-year college in their state for $150 billion.” Later, in a virtual event with Jill sitting beside him, Joe called Trump ‘George’. Team Biden said Joe was referring to comedian/actor George Lopez, who was doing the interview.
‘We need to stop four more years of George’: Jill Biden whispers ‘Trump’ under her breath during a virtual campaign rally https://trib.al/YQLjSQO
Biden Staff Tells 60 Minutes He Misspoke in Saying Free College Would Cost $150 Billion
Kamala Harris Laughs [on “60 Minutes”] When Asked if She Would Bring “Socialist or Progressive Perspective” to Biden Administration – During an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” released Sunday, anchor Norah O’Donnell asked Sen. Kamala Harris about being listed as the “most liberal” senator by the nonpartisan GovTrack website… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/26/kamala_harris_laughs_when_asked_if_she_would_bring_socialist_or_progressive_perspective_to_biden_administration.html
So, Joe called a lid for Monday – and for the remainder of the campaign (no in-person campaigning)!
@TomBevanRCP: It’s been 67 days since the end of the DNC [Virtual Convention]. Biden has made 26 campaign visits. That’s one visit every 2.57 days.
@HallieOnMSNBC: @mikememoli crunched the numbers on Biden’s campaign travels since the convention [10 to PA (next door to Joe), 3 to MI & FL] https://twitter.com/HallieOnMSNBC/status/1320760123216826370
This is not a parody piece! Joe Biden tweeted at 15:40 ET: Don’t wake up on November 4th wishing you had done more. If you’re able, chip in $8 to help secure a victory in 8 days [You can’t make this up!]
Near the close yesterday, Biden, speaking to reporters on line, said he planned ‘to travel a lot in coming days’. If true, what changed his plans?
BI’s @TinaSfon 16:10 ET: Biden heading to both Iowa and Wisconsin on Friday, campaign says.
@TuckerCarlson: Tony Bobulinski says he met with Joe Biden about China. The media have suppressed the story, but it’s real and it matters. Voters have a right to know the details. Bobulinski sits for an extended interview Tuesday night at 8p ET on #FoxNews
@seanmdav: According to a source familiar with the planning, Bobulinski will play recordings of Biden family operatives begging him to stay quiet and claiming Bobulinski’s revelations will “bury” the reputations of everyone involved in Hunter’s overseas deals.
BIDEN: ‘I Just Told You Where I’m Going! There Hasn’t Been a Day that’s not a 12-Hour Day Yet!’ – “You’ve kept a relatively light schedule over the last few days, can you give us a sense of where you’ll be going over the next few days?” asked one reporter. “I just told you where I’m going to be traveling, and I’ve been traveling the last few days too! I’m going to Iowa, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida… There’s a lot we’ve been doing online and everything from fundraising to making sure we meet with leaders,” said Biden. “There’s not been a day that hasn’t been a 12-hour day yet!” he added.
@TVNewsHQ last evening: Moments ago, as Biden starts to stumble with a question about court-packing, his staff starts escorting the camera away... https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320815834315608064
PS – Obama will campaign for Joe in Orlando, Florida today.
Trump held three rallies at different Pennsylvania locales on Monday.
@abigailmarone: President Trump shows MASSIVE Pennsylvania crowd clips of Biden praising China & supporting trade deals that shipped American jobs overseas.
https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320792521925140482
@abigailmarone: President Trump’s third Pennsylvania rally of the day is absolutely MASSIVE!
https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320835061634269184
@Reuters last night: The U.S. Supreme Court declined [5-3] to allow a six-day deadline extension for receipt of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin, siding with Republicans.
@shipwreckedcrew: Last 3 Democrat Presidents to win the Presidency without tragedy/scandal:
Barack Obama, age 47; Bill Clinton, age 46; John Kennedy, age 43. The Democrat party doesn’t rally around septuagenarians. They have always embraced generational change in their Presidents.
Will anyone from the left realize why Trump won — again?
Weeks before the 2016 election, I sent an email to several media and political personalities predicting that Donald Trump would win Pennsylvania and get 306 electoral votes. I’m not a professional pollster, but I did work on three winning presidential campaigns, and I simply tried to block out the noise from supporters of both the Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigns. I pulled up the 2012 electoral map to see which states Mitt Romney won and then, factoring in the latest data and political miscalculations, made an educated guess for 2016. Using that same system, I have come up with a prediction for 2020: an absolute floor of 278 electoral votes for Trump, with a real chance that he’ll win more than 310 electoral votes… https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/522420-will-anyone-from-the-left-realize-why-trump-won-again
With the Hunter Biden Expose, Suppression is a Bigger Scandal than the Actual Story
Unprecedented efforts to squelch information about a New York Post story may prove to be more dangerous corruption than whatever Hunter Biden did with a crooked Ukrainian energy company
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/with-the-hunter-biden-expose-suppression-136
In 2015, Joe Biden’s license plate read: THEBIGBUY
https://twitter.com/GetInTheGame18/status/1320830384435646464/photo/1
NPR Reports on Biden Assassination Plot, Omits That Mastermind Was Pro-Islam, Bernie Bro
Boycott-Barrett Ploy Shows Difference between Democrats and Republican
In a final infantile stunt, Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats boycotted this morning’s vote on passing Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination out of committee and onto the floor…The boycott was a pointless gesture… It was a radical break with democratic norms, by which we register dissent by voting nay, not by picking up our ball and going home like poorly raised children. Having crossed yet another Rubicon, Democrats will eventually learn, at some point when it really costs them…
The boycott was self-destructive, coming only after the nominee had impressed Americans for two days with her intellect, poise, and good nature…Everyone, however, was watching on the two days when the Democrats deigned to show up, and Barrett reduced them to an intramural competition for coveted Ass-Clown of the Year honors…
Therein lies a telling difference between the two parties. To win, Republicans must be sound in pursuing their strategies because the media oppose them at every turn. They are thus fortunate to be led by a superb tactician, Senator Mitch McConnell. Democrats, by contrast, are cheered on by the media in pursuing their strategies, regardless of whether they are sharp or daft. They are thus spared the criticism that disciplines politicians to plan carefully…
So they talk crazy about Court-packing, and when the polling cuts against them, they try to redefine what Court-packing means… all Democrats accomplish by their hearing antics is a swing in the polling. A widening majority of Americans have concluded that Barrett is terrific. In fact, they’d like to see her confirmed…Democrats never have to think such things through. By the next news cycle, the media will bury the boycott like it never happened, or maybe just blame it on . . . I don’t know . . . Russian disinformation? https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/boycott-barrett-ploy-shows-difference-between-democrats-and-republicans/
New Jersey mayor opens Trump food boxes, removes president’s letter, and replaces it with his own
Ex-long-time CBS and Fox reporter Bernard Goldberg: American Journalism 2020: R.I.P.
We all know why they’re censoring news about the Biden family even after the Director of National Intelligence told us that there was no Russian disinformation campaign involved; even after Fox News obtained a receipt from the computer repair shop with Hunter Biden’s signature on it, indicating that the computer is indeed his; even after Hunter Biden’s ex-business associate said the emails were authentic and accused Joe Biden of lying about his involvement in his son’s business…
Journalists used to be curious. They wanted to find out what was true. That was before Donald Trump became president and they embarked on what they see as a noble mission — to get him out of office and put Joe Biden in the White House. They think they’re doing America a great big favor by abandoning traditional principles of journalism and replacing them with partisan support for the candidate they want to win… Journalism is the big loser in 2020. Journalists have squandered what little credibility they still had left. And they may be the only ones who don’t know it. Or simply don’t care.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/american-2020-r-43150116
Well that is all for today
I will see you THURSDAY night.
harveyorganblog.com 
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