AUGUST 30//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $12.00 TO $1725.10//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 34 CENTS TO $18.44/PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $15.90 TO $851.35//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $54.00 TO $2089.50//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT, VACCINE MANDATE//GAZPROM IN DISPUTE WITH FRANCE AND THEREBY CUTS OFF GAS TO IT//NORWAY REPLACES RUSSIA AS LEADING SUPPLIER TO EUROPE OF NATURAL GAS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

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GOLD;  $1725.10 DOWN $12.00

SILVER: $18.44 DOWN 34 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1724.50

SILVER: $18.44

Bitcoin morning price:  $20,405 DOWN 266

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,008 DOWN 663

Platinum price closing DOWN $15.90 AT $8651.35

Palladium price; closing DOWN $53.00  at $2089.70

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,736.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/29/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/31/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


167 C MAREX 17
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9
972 C IRONBEAM INC 2
991 H CME 28


TOTAL: 28 28
MONTH TO DATE: 33,716

JPMorgan stopped:   0/28

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

28 NOTICES FOR 2800 OZ //0.08709 TONNES

total notices so far: 33,716 contracts for 3,371,600 oz (104.871 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 51 NOTICES FILED FOR 255,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  1102 :  for 5,510,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.44

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.66 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A SMALL SIZED 106  CONTRACTS TO 135,392.   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE SMALL GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.07 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.07) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 866 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES,   WITH THE FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION HAVING BEEN ACCOMPLISHED ON MONDAY.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) SOME  SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//SOME SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -252

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 22 days, total 13,705  contracts:  68.525 million oz  OR 3.114 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (622 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 68.525  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 68.525 MILLION OZ (A LOT LESS THAN NORMAL//THE CROOKS ARE SCARED TO ISSUE MORE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 106 WITH OUR   $0.07 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 700 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /SOME BANKER ADDITIONS A// SOME SPEC SHORT  LIQUIDATIONS  /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 594 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.970 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 51  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  255,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 267 CONTRACTS  TO 457,849 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:–187   CONTRACTS.

.

THE SMALL SIZED  INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  FALL IN PRICE OF $0.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 3500 OZ //NEW STANDING 104.871 TONNES//(OUR BANKERS COULD NOT FIND ANY GOLD OVER HERE SO EFP’S SENT TO LONDON)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF   $0.50 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 2980  OI CONTRACTS 9.269 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2713  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,849

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2980 CONTRACTS  WITH 267 CONTRACTS  INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2713 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3167 CONTRACTS OR 9.850 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2713) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (267): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2980 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP OF 3500 oz.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

60,844 CONTRACTS OR 6,084,400 OZ OR 189.23  TONNES 22 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2765 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 22  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 189.23 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  189.23/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 189.23 TONNES (DRAMATICALLY FALLING AGAIN)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 106 CONTRACT OI TO 135,392 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 700  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 106  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 594   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.970 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.07

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.51 PTS OR 0.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 74.18 OR 0.37%    /The Nikkei closed UP 316.82 OR % 1.14.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.8998//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9103//    /Oil UP TO 94.17  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 10.27//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 267 CONTRACTS TO 457,849 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS TINY COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  FALL OF $0.50  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2713 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2713 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :2713 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2713 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 2980  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2713 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 267  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 0.50.  WE  ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS  WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (104.871),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.871 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $0.50) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES //   COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 9.850 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (104.871 TONNES)

WE HAD -187  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2980 CONTRACTS OR 298000  OZ OR 9.269 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 69,454///  extremely poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  163,411/extremely poor

FINAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 30

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 292,032.691   oz


Brinks
Delaware
Loomis
Malca
3038 kilobars from 
Loomis and
2000 kilobars from
Malca


Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz100.18 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today28   notice(s)
2800  OZ
0.08709 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
00 oz
0.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month33,716 notices
3,371,600 OZ
104.871 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i) Into Brinks: 100.18 oz

total deposits 100.18 oz

4 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks  129,355.965  oz 

ii) Out of Delaware: 699.99 oz

iii) OUT OF MALCA:  64,302.000 oz (2,000 KILOBARS)

iv) Out of Loomis:  97,674.738 oz (3038 kilobars)

total:  292,032.691  oz

total in tonnes: 9.0830 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //1

i) HSBC  201.61 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 28 contracts having LOST 39 contracts .

We had 4 notices served upon yesterday so we LOST 35 contracts or an additional 3500 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this very active month of August as they were EFP’d over to London.

Sept. lost 32 contracts to 2672 contracts.

October gained 43 contracts up to 39,211 

We had 28 notice(s) filed today for 2800 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 28 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,716) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 28 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 28 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,371,200 OZ  OR 104.871 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (33,716) x 100 oz+   (xx)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28} x 100 oz} which equals 3,371,200 oz standing OR 104.871 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  104.871 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,343,125.744 oz   72.88 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  28,093,886.029 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,684,725.134  OZ (425.65 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,409,160.890 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 11,341,600. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 352.77 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 30//FINAL STANDINGS

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,373,063.901 oz
Delaware
Loomis
Manfra

Brinks


 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 1,119.271.000 oz
CNT
Delaware
Loomis


 
No of oz served today (contracts)51CONTRACT(S)
255,000   OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
(nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1102 contracts
 5,510,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT  600,981.410 oz

ii) Into Delaware:  3100.100 oz

iii) Into Loomis: 515,189.690 oz

total deposit:  1,119.271.000   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 170.388 million oz/328.958 million =51.79% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:4

i) Out of Delaware:  973.400 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 685,449.680 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 459,632.400 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 227,008.421 oz

total: 572,369.660    oz

 adjustments:  4//dealer to customer//

i) Brinks 147,295.910 oz

ii) HSBC 361,709.620 oz

iii) JPMorgan: 404,666.574 oz

iv) Manfra  220,482.974 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 50.632 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 328.958 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 51 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY

SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 5724 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 7502

OCTOBER GAINED 122 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 645

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for  10,000 oz

Comex volumes:23,119// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 73,656 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1102 x 5,000 oz = 5,510,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(51) and the number of notices served upon today 51  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 1102 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (51)  – number of notices served upon today (51) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 5,510,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 980.61 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4  WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 468.66 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Scheme Fixes Nothing

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 02:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

President Joe Biden recently announced a student loan forgiveness program. While it will provide some people a small amount of relief from student loan debt, this $300 billion taxpayer-funded scheme does nothing to address the underlying problem. In fact, it will exacerbate it.

The underlying problem is the high cost of a college education.

And why is college tuition so expensive?

The cost is directly linked to the widespread availability of student loans.

Forgiving a little bit of student debt doesn’t change the underlying dynamics. Even as some people will see their debt balances decrease, new students are borrowing money even as you read this article.

And of course, the federal government signaling that its willingness to forgive debt won’t do anything to deter more borrowing. It will only incentivize more student debt. As Peter Schiff pointed out in a recent interview, loan forgiveness increases moral hazard. Moral hazard means a lack of incentive to guard against risk because people are protected from the consequences.

Remember, the only reason we have all these student loans is because the government provided them or guaranteed them. The only reason college is so expensive is because the government provides so much money in the way of loans. But now that they start forgiving loans, students are going to borrow more money than ever before. Because the colleges are going to tell the students, ‘Hey, who cares how much you borrow for college? You’re not going to have to pay any of it back anyway. So, we’re going to double your tuition, and don’t worry. Maybe we’ll throw in a free car.”

Schiff alludes to the root of the issue. The government is trying to solve a problem that it created to begin with.

Somewhere along the line, the powers that be decided everybody needed to go to college. So, the government created the federal student loan program to make college “accessible for all.” But as with most government programs, it failed to deliver as promised. The result wasn’t more people going to college. It simply increased the cost of tuition for those going to school. In effect, colleges and universities were able to base their prices on the fact that students can easily borrow money.

This isn’t merely theorizing. A paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) in 2015 found that a large percentage of the increase in college tuition can be explained by increases in the amount of available financial aid.

Economists Grey Gordon and Aaron Hedlund wrote their paper for the NBER after creating a sophisticated model of the college market. When they crunched the numbers, they found that the demand shock of ever-increasing financial aid accounted for almost all of the tuition increase:

Specifically, with demand shocks alone, equilibrium tuition rises by 102%, almost fully matching the 106% from the benchmark. By contrast, with all factors present except the demand shocks, net tuition only rises by 16%. These results accord strongly with the Bennett hypothesis, which asserts that colleges respond to expansions of financial aid by increasing tuition.”

George Mason University economist Alex Tabarrok pointed out that Gordon and Hedlund revealed the inevitable outcome of government financial aid policy.

Remarkably, so much of the subsidy is translated into higher tuition that enrollment doesn’t increase! What does happen is that students take on more debt, which many of them can’t pay.”

A paper published by the Federal Reserve bank of New York came to the same basic conclusion.

We find that institutions more exposed to changes in the subsidized federal loan program increased their tuition disproportionately around these policy changes, with a sizable pass-through effect on tuition of about 65%.”

In a nutshell, the federal government raised the cost of a college degree while destroying its value. Peter Schiff summed up the problem several years ago during an interview with Tom Woods.

Government wanted to make college more affordable. They made it more expensive. And at the same time, they destroyed the value of the degree. It costs more to get a degree, and the degree is worth less, because everyone now has one.”

Fast-forward to today and the problem has only grown larger. Student loan debt in the US totaled $1.59 trillion at the end of the second quarter. Around 43 million Americans hold student loan debt. Less than a third of those owe less than $10,000.

Biden’s scheme doesn’t even put a dent in the level of student loan debt. More significantly, it not only fails to address the underlying problem – it will exacerbate it.

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

end

GOLD/SILVER

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Malta’s gold reserves are basically zero

(the Shift)

Malta’s gold reserves sink to 23-year low

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-08-29 21:32Section: Daily Dispatches

From The Shift
Valletta, Malta
Monday, August 29, 2022

Malta’s gold reserves sank to a 23-year low in July this year, the Central Bank’s latest figures show, leaving the country with one less safeguard that can ease financial pressures on the government’s purse in times of crisis.

In January, Malta’s gold reserves were valued at E3.2 million. By July, most of those reserves were sold off, leaving Malta’s central bank with just E82,384 in gold reserves, the lowest since at least 1999. The central bank’s publicly accessible archives do not go back any further than that year.

When asked to explain what motivated the sell-off, a spokesperson for the central bank told The Shift that gold “is held by the central bank and invested for tactical purposes,” refusing to elaborate on specific reasons.

“Such holdings vary over time depending on market trends and changes in outlook based on fundamental and technical analysis. The bank’s investment portfolio held as at 31 December 2021 had a value of €2.1 billion. 

“The contribution passed on to the government’s budget each year is taken from the profit made by the bank, which largely depends on the proceeds from the bank’s financial assets, including those from gold,” the spokesperson said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

-END-

.

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/COAL

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8998

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9103

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 74.18 PTS OR  0.37%

2. Nikkei closed UP 316.62 OR 1.14%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  108.46/Euro RISES TO 1.0031

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.220/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs USA cross now at 138.26/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.470%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.65%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.949//

3j Gold at $1731.30 silver at: 18.69  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 12/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.52//

3m oil into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and  101 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 138.26DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 9703– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9733well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.063  DOWN 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.203 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,17

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Bounce, Kashkari Unhappy As Post-Jackson Hole Rout Fizzles

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 08:09 AM

After revealing that he was so “happy” he danced a jig when stocks tumbled after Powell’s J-Hole speech sparked a market rout on Friday, we can only imagine that Neel Kashkari’s face looked like this when he saw the market update this morning…

… because after two days of selling, risk assets are sharply higher this morning, with S&P futures rising 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futs rising 1.1%, as investor sentiment stabilized, while 10Y Treasury yields slid 5bps, the BBG dollar index lost 0.3%, and oil tumbled, 4% reversing most of Monday’s gains.

In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-tied stocks climbed as Bitcoin rose: Marathon Digital and Coinbase lead cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin trades in a narrow band around $20,000 for the fifth consecutive session: Marathon Digital +5.7%, Coinbase +3.7%, Riot Blockchain +4.9%; Twitter slipped after Elon Musk cited recent accusations from a whistle-blower as a new reason to terminate the $44 billion takeover. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares jump as much as 16% in premarket trading, putting the home products retailer on track for a third session of straight gains after Monday’s 25% surge.
  • Baidu (BIDU US) shares rise as much as 4.5% in premarket trading, leading China stocks higher, after the internet search company’s profit beat analyst estimates.
  • Gran TierraEnergy (GTE US) shares jump as much as 8.7% in premarket trading, after the oil & gas company said it would buy back as many as 36m shares.
  • Nikola stocks slumped after filing for At-the-Market stock offering

With markets once again very volatile, Credit Suisse recommended investors go underweight global equities (or at least short Credit Suisse bank itself) following the Jackson Hole symposium, while JPMorgan Chase strategists say that a reading on the US labor market that spells bad news for the economy is actually a bullish signal for stocks.

“The markets are spooked because they are afraid that the Fed could create a hard landing — that they’ll raise rates into a recession and that will be really painful for the economy and for corporate profits,” Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth LLC, said on Bloomberg Television

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said sharp stock-market losses show investors have got the message that the US central bank is determined to contain inflation. “People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%,” he said; it wasn’t clear what he said this morning when he saw futures sharply higher.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rallied 1.3%. DAX outperforms, adding 1.5%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.4%. Retailers, banks and tech are the strongest-performing sectors while energy companies underperformed as prices plunged on signs that the region is stepping up efforts to curb a crisis. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Banks and lenders lead a broader rebound in European stocks as yields rise in the UK, with banks in the country resuming trade following Monday’s holiday.
  • Adevinta shares rise as much as 16%, with analysts noting a beat on earnings from the classified advertising firm, along with a strong performance in its Mobile arm and reassuring guidance.
  • Aker Solutions shares rise as much as 17% after the Norwegian offshore firm said it would form a joint venture with Schlumberger and Subsea 7. Pareto notes “significant” cost synergies.
  • Bango shares jump as much as 15% after Liberum increased their price target to a Street high. The broker said the acquisition of NTT DOCOMO’s payments business helps accelerate Bango’s growth strategy.
  • Munters shares rise as much as 8.7% after the Swedish industrial cooling and climate solutions manufacturer said it had received its “largest order ever” for a data center in the US.
  • Technoprobe shares gain as much as 2.5% in Milan as Mediobanca increased its PT on the stock to EU9.10 from EU8.6 ahead of what the broker expects to be “another robust release” on Sep. 27.
  • Diurnal Group shares soar as much as 136%, the most since January 2019, after Neurocrine Biosciences agreed to buy the specialty pharmaceutical company for 27.5p in cash per share.
  • Carrefour shares fall as much as 2.7%, after JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the French grocer to neutral, noting “lackluster” operating momentum and a “lack of short-term catalysts.”
  • Bunzl shares fall as much as 8.1%, the most intraday since March 2020, after the supplies distributor reported 1H results that disappointed, according to Interactive Investor.
  • European mining stocks underperforms all other European industry groups as the regional equity benchmark advances, after iron ore and base metals fell amid concerns over demand in China.
  • Warsaw stocks are worst performers globally so far in August, down 8.2%, on the way to largest monthly drop since April as a domino effect from Europe’s gas crisis hits Polish companies.

Asian equities rebounded from a post-Jackson Hole slide, with investors focusing on earnings on the region’s busiest day this season. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added as much as 1% following Monday’s 2.2% slump, lifted by technology and financial shares. Indian and Japanese shares were among the region’s best performers, while benchmarks in China and Hong Kong declined. Chinese search-engine operator Baidu Inc. and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s biggest bank by assets, were among the 110 MSCI Asia Pacific Index members to report results Tuesday. Investors had been bracing for a poor earnings season in a quarter marred by China’s lockdowns, but an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence shows the results have surprised to the upside so far. While Asian stocks are set for a 1.1% monthly slump in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments last week, there’s a possibility that the region’s valuations could attract investors, said Christina Woon, an Asian equities investment director at Abrdn in Singapore. Asia has “more of a relative buffer in valuations” given investors are already quite cautious toward the region, Woon said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Many of Asia’s quality companies are “producing earnings that are holding up well,” which may support stock performances, she added. China tech stocks in Hong Kong slid amid lingering uncertainties over discussions to avoid the delisting of companies from New York stock exchanges. Asian emerging market ex-China equities saw a small net outflow last week after five weeks of inflows.  

Japanese equities also rebounded after heavy selling on Monday, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s continued stance to keep up its hawkish monetary policies and the yen stayed near 140 per dollar.  The Topix rose 1.2% to 1,968.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.1% to 28,195.58. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.1%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,839 rose and 257 fell, while 73 were unchanged. “There may be a slight effect from the weak yen,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management.

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 6,998.30, boosted by gains in banks and energy shares. All but one of the 11 sector gauge rallied, while mining shares edged lower as iron ore fell below $100 a ton for the first time in five weeks on signs a crisis in China’s steel industry is worsening.  Uranium shares including Paladin surged after Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said countries shouldn’t shut down existing nuclear power plants as Europe grapples with an energy crisis. 

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.3%, its first drop in three days as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc. The euro rose above parity against the dollar. European bonds advanced as month-on-month numbers for German state CPIs showed signs of slowing. A euro-area economic confidence gauge fell to 97.6 in August, its lowest level in 1 1/2 years, and down from 99 the previous month. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a decline to 98. The pound traded near a 2 1/2-year low versus the US dollar amid speculation the UK is headed for recession with further interest-rate hikes potentially deepening an economic downturn. Aussie eased after a sharp drop in building approvals, only to rebound in European trading.

Meanwhile, China’s central bank set a stronger-than-expected yuan fixing for a fifth day, a sign it doesn’t want an excessively weak currency. The move highlights how greenback strength is a challenge for Asia as the region’s currencies slip.

In rates, treasuries are near session highs as US trading gets under way Tuesday, holding most of gains that were paced by euro-zone bonds during European morning after release of German regional CPIs, with national gauge due out at 8am New York time.  US yields are lower by 2bp-5bp, 10-year TSY sliding by 5.8bp at 3.05%. Gilts curve bear-flattened with 2-year yield 12bps higher as money markets raise BOE tightening bets. Gilts slumped after yesterday’s English holiday as money markets cranked up BOE tightening bets. The UK 2-year yield briefly rose above 3% for the first time since October 2008. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy and Portugal widen, Spain tightens. Australian sovereign bonds extend an opening gain as iron ore slumped back under $100 for the first time this month. IG credit issuance lull expected to last through US Labor Day holiday Sept. 6.

In commodities, WTI drifts 2.8% lower to trade near $94.32. Most base metals are in the red; LME copper falls 2.9%, underperforming peers. LME lead outperforms, adding 0.7%. Spot gold falls roughly $2 to trade near $1,735/oz. China was reported to provide Europe with an energy lifeline through the resale of surplus LNG, according to FT. UK PM candidate Truss is set to approve a series of oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea in one of her first acts as PM, should she be elected, according to The Times. Canada said it is invoking the 1977 pipeline treaty with the US for the second time over Enbridge’s (ENB) Line 5 (540k BPD) dispute.

On the US calendar today, we get the August Conference Board consumer confidence, July JOLTS job openings, June FHFA house price index, Q2 house price purchase index; Bank of Montreal and Best Buy are among the companies expected to report results today.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 4,066.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 426.16
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 158.61
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 518.99
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 28,195.58
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,968.38
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 19,949.03
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,227.22
  • Sensex up 2.1% to 59,168.51
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,998.33
  • Kospi up 1.0% to 2,450.93
  • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,736.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.36% to 108.45
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.46%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0029

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bonds are sliding toward the first bear market in a generation, burning investors who erred in bets that central banks would pivot away from rapid interest-rate hikes. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, which tracks total returns from investment- grade government and corporate bonds, is within a percentage point of falling 20% from its peak after another bout of selling following the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium
  • The number of container ships headed for the California ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — a traffic jam that once symbolized American consumer vigor during the pandemic — declined to the lowest level since the bottleneck started to build two years ago
  • European energy prices plunged on signs that the region is stepping up efforts to curb a crisis that threatens to tip the region into recession with winter approaching
  • The European Union is set to meet its gas storage filling goal two months ahead of target as the bloc braces for a tough winter with Russia limiting supplies and energy contracts trading at elevated levels throughout the continent
  • China has rolled out “more forceful” economic policies this year than it did in 2020, Premier Li Keqiang said, as he warned the country faces an arduous task in ensuring its recovery
  • China took the most aggressive step in its latest battle to bolster the yuan, setting its reference rate for the currency with the second strongest bias on record. The People’s Bank of China fixed the yuan at 6.8802 per dollar on Tuesday, 249 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The bias was the second largest on the strong side since the survey of analysts and traders began in 2018
  • The slide in the yen back toward the key psychological 140 per-dollar level is reigniting chatter on the likelihood officials will intervene to support the Japanese currency

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were somewhat mixed as most of the regional bourses recouped some of the prior day’s losses but with gains capped amid a slew of earnings releases and as participants look towards month-end, as well as the upcoming risk events. ASX 200 was led higher by the energy sector after recent gains in oil prices which printed a fresh monthly high and with strong earnings from Woodside Energy. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the psychologically key 28k level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with participants digesting earnings releases and amid further COVID-related disruptions as China’s Dalian region limited movements for five days and Shenzhen ordered to close the Huaqiangbei subdistrict which is a global electronics sourcing centre. ICBC (1398 HK) – H2 2022 (CNY): net profit 171.51bln vs. Exp. 186.4bln, NII 351.4bln vs. Exp. 360.5bln. Baidu Inc (BIDU) Q2 2022 (CNY): EPS 15.79 (exp. 10.46), Revenue 29.6bln (exp. 29.31bln). Global funds invested into Evergrande’s (3333 HK) bonds have determined their own debt restructuring plan, via FT sources; demands the chair repay liabilities with own funds.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Finance Ministry said it will make good use of local government special bonds and strictly curb new local government hidden debt in H2, while it will strive to stabilise employment and prices.
  • US President Biden’s administration plans to ask Congress to approve an estimated USD 1.1bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to Politico.
  • PBoC has issued draft rules to regulate related transactions of financial holding firms.
  • All industrial and business power usage has resumed in Sichuan as of August 30th, according to CCTV.
  • Pakistan to Import Onions, Tomatoes To Meet Shortage After Flood
  • Asia Push for Winter LNG Sends Price to New Five-Month High

European bourses are supported in tandem with pressure in European gas prices, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, while the FTSE 100 lags somewhat after its Bank Holiday. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.9%, with the NQ +1.2% outperforming modestly as yields ease. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk has filed an SEC filing on Twitter (TWTR); on Aug 29th, sent a letter to Twitter notifying he is terminating merger agreement for additional bases separate from bases set forth in July 8th, according to a letter.

Top European News

  • Spain is to propose the EU mimics its gas price system, via El Pais.
  • Germany said to be open to discussing an EU gas price cap at the September 9th summit, via Reuters citing an official.
  • Britons Ditch Staycations for Cheaper All-Inclusive Trips Abroad
  • Spanish Inflation Slows But Any Retreat Is Likely to be Gradual
  • UK July Mortgage Approvals Rise to 63.8k vs. Est. 62k
  • Austria Is Probing Trades Behind Wien Energie Margin Call
  • Revolution Beauty Shares to Be Suspended One Year After Listing

FX

  • DXY dips under 108.50 after seeing a mild bid overnight to a high of 108.90.
  • Antipodeans lead the gains whilst EUR feels a boost from receding European gas prices.
  • Haven FX are mixed vs the USD with JPY firmer and the CHF in the red.

Fixed Income

  • EGBs are bid as the benchmarks recoup from yesterday’s pressure, fresh fundamentals limited though European gas pricing easing has likely assisted.
  • Gilts remain subdued by over a full point, though off worst, as it catches up to the weekend’s hawkish rhetoric.
  • USTs are in-fitting with EZ peers and awaiting commentary from Fed’s Williams; yields slightly flatter.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures have pared back around half of the prior day’s gains; relatively pronounced pressure once more in European gas benchmarks.
  • Spot gold is modestly softer intraday and remains under its 21, 50, and 10 DMAs.
  • LME copper has fallen back under USD 8,000/t as the exchange plays catch-up following the UK bank holiday.
  • China was reported to provide Europe with an energy lifeline through the resale of surplus LNG, according to FT.
  • UK PM candidate Truss is set to approve a series of oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea in one of her first acts as PM, should she be elected, according to The Times
  • Canada said it is invoking the 1977 pipeline treaty with the US for the second time over Enbridge’s (ENB) Line 5 (540k BPD) dispute.
  • Sadrist protesters in Iraq reportedly closed the oil production distribution company in Basra and there were explosions in Baghdad’s Green Zone from mortars targeting the former PM’s residential area, according to Iraqi Day.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:00: June S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 YoY, est. 19.20%, prior 20.50%
  • 09:00: June S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 19.75%
  • 09:00: 2Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 4.6%
  • 09:00: June S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.90%, prior 1.32%
  • 09:00: June FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.4%
  • 10:00: Aug. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 98.0, prior 95.7
    • Present Situation, prior 141.3
    • Expectations, prior 65.3
  • 10:00: July JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.4m, prior 10.7m

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

For those also arriving back after the holiday weekend, markets have been playing a familiar tune for 2022, with risk assets losing ground as central banks underlined their determination to keep bearing down on inflation. Fed Chair Powell kicked off the latest selloff in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, where he said that getting back to price stability would “likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time.” He also went on to reiterate that hawkish message at multiple points, saying that “the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay”, which favoured “acting with resolve now” to avoid a more costly outcome later.

With Powell explicitly warning against repeating the mistakes of the 1970s, investors moved to price in a more hawkish response from the Fed over the next year. In fact over Friday and yesterday, the rate that Fed funds futures are pricing in for the December 2022 meeting went up a further +7.1bps to 3.70%. And with a more hawkish Fed being priced in, that’s having an impact on Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield reaching its highest intraday level since 2007 in trading yesterday, at 3.48%, although it’s since fallen back to 3.41% this morning. US equities have also taken a significant hit, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst daily performance in over two months on Friday, with a -3.37% decline, followed by a more modest -0.67% fall yesterday. Strikingly, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that he was “happy to see how Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was received” in markets, saying it reflected an understanding of their commitment to return inflation to 2%.

That theme of investors adapting to more hawkish central banks has been seen on this side of the Atlantic as well, since a number of individuals at the ECB are now openly floating the idea of hiking by 75bps at a single meeting like the Fed. On Friday, Austria’s Holzmann said that a 75bps move “should be part of the debate”, and that a 50bps move was “the minimum for me”. Then in an interview on Sunday, Latvia’s Kazaks said that “at least 50 basis points would be appropriate” in September and said “at the current moment, I would say 50 or 75 basis points”. Those may be two of the most hawkish officials on the Governing Council, but the fact that a 75bps move is being openly discussed ahead of next week’s decision just shows how the direction of travel has shifted, and overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 75bps move as more likely than a 50bps one. Nevertheless, there was some pushback yesterday from Chief Economist Lane, who said that a “steady pace” was important when reaching the terminal rate.

In light of these developments, our European economists have updated their ECB call (link here), where they bring forward their timing for the terminal rate to mid-2023 from mid-2024, and now see the terminal deposit rate reaching 2.5% (up from 2% previously). In terms of the specific moves to get there, they now expect 50bp hikes at the remaining 3 meetings this year, bringing the deposit rate up to 1.5% in December, before the ECB slows to a 25bp pace at the 4 meetings in H1 2023 that takes the deposit rate up to 2.5%. They are maintaining their call for a 50bp hike at the September meeting for now, but note there are still some key data and risks around energy that could change the September profile.

With markets waking up to the prospect of more aggressive ECB hikes, sovereign bonds sold off significantly yesterday. Yields on 10yr bunds (+11.4bps), OATs (+10.6bps) and BTPs (+10.3bps) all moved sharply higher thanks to rises in real yields, whilst gilts were closed given the public holiday. European equities similarly lost ground as they caught up with the late US selloff from Friday, and the STOXX 600 (-0.81%) posted a decent decline, even as nearly a quarter of the index’s weighting didn’t trade given the London holiday. In the US, tech stocks bore the brunt of the decline given the higher yields, and the FANG+ index followed up its -4.26% loss on Friday with another -1.03% move lower yesterday.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have put in a mixed performance, with the Nikkei (+1.02%) and the Kospi (+0.54%) clawing back some of their heavy losses yesterday, whereas the Hang Seng (-1.32%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.68%) and the CSI 300 (-0.61%) are all trading in negative territory. That underperformance in Chinese equities follows the moves from the People’s Bank of China to push back against yuan weakness, with a fix at 6.8802 per US Dollar this morning, which is noticeably stronger than Bloomberg’s survey estimate of 6.9051. Indeed, it was the strongest fix relative to estimates since August 2019. Elsewhere overnight, there are also signs that the recent market selloff could take a breather today, with futures contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.3%) both pointing higher.

Looking forward now, this week should illuminate plenty on the near-term policy trajectory as a number of important data releases come out. For the Euro Area, the main one will be tomorrow’s flash CPI reading for August, where our economists see year-on-year CPI ticking down from the record +8.9% in July to +8.8% in August. However, we haven’t reached the peak yet in their opinion, as they see CPI rebounding again in September up to +9.3%, so the ECB would still have a long way to go to get back to their target. On the question of core inflation, they see that moving up to +4.3% in August year-on-year, which would be the highest since the formation of the single currency. So an important release for the ECB just over a week before their decision.

The other big release this week will be the US jobs report for August on Friday, which could go a long way to determining whether the Fed move by 50bps or 75bps. Our US economists expect that there’ll be another +300k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which would leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%. Markets are pricing in +69.1bps worth of hikes for September right now, so much closer to 75 than 50 still. But last month we saw how a strong jobs report jolted market expectations towards 75bps, so a surprise in either direction could well see that shift once again. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the July JOLTS data later today as well, which includes measures on job openings and hires. That’ll offer some further signals on whether labour demand is moving back in line with supply.

Otherwise this week, a major theme will be the ongoing turmoil in European energy markets, where yesterday saw prices come down from their record highs of last Friday. For instance, natural gas futures were down -19.63% to €273 per megawatt-hour, whist German power prices for next year fell -22.84% to €760 per megawatt-hour, having traded above €1000 for the first time earlier in the day. European Commission President Von der Leyen said yesterday that the EU was “working on an emergency intervention and a structural reform of the electricity market.” Let’s see what happens there, but one piece of better news from Germany came over the weekend after Economy Minister Habeck said in a Sunday statement that the target to see gas storage 85% full by October should be reached by early September. In the meantime oil prices have got the week off to a strong start, with Brent crude advancing +4.06% yesterday to their highest finish so far this month at $105.09/bbl. They’ve maintained the bulk of those gains overnight too, with Brent crude only down -0.69% at $104.36/bbl.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Dutch TTF pressured, EUR elevated and crude clipped; Iraq’s exports are unaffected – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 06:48 AM

  • European bourses are supported in tandem with pressure in European gas prices, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%; US futures firmer across the board
  • DXY under 108.50 to the benefit of peers (ex-CHF) and in particular antipodeans and the EUR, latter aided by gas prices
  • EGBs bid as benchmarks recoup from Monday’s pressure, USTs in-fitting and looking to Fed’s Williams
  • WTI and Brent futures have pared back around half of the prior day’s gains; Iraq output reportedly unaffected by political unrest
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Vasle.

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • German HICP (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Vasle.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

IRAQ

  • Iraq’s oil exports have been unaffected by political unrest, according to Reuters sources.
  • Iraq’s SOMO can redirect more crude oil exports to Europe if needed, according to Reuters sources; SOMO began exports to Europe in June and said Iraq has adjusted export flows as a result of increased competition in Asian markets.
  • Iran decides to close its land border with Iraq, Kuwait calls on its citizens to leave due to security developments, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • “Military reinforcements for the Iraqi army in the vicinity of the Green Zone”, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Iraq security forces decide to lift nation-wide curfew, according to Reuters citing a Telegram post.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian troops broke through Russian defences in several sectors of the front line near Kherson, according to a senior advisor to President Zelensky cited by Reuters.
  • Gazprom has informed Engie (ENGI FP) of a reduction in gas deliveries from today, due to a disagreement on the application of some contracts; Engie has already secured the necessary volumes to meet commitments.
  • Russian Kremlin, on Nord Stream 1 maintenance, says nothing hinders Russian gas exports aside from technical problems from sanctions.
  • Exxon (XOM) is looking to sell its 30% stake in the Sakhalinn-1 project, has notified Russian officials that it will sue the gov’t unless they allow an exit from the project, via WSJ.

OTHER

  • Solomon Islands would like to see a partnership in place to build national capacity to police EEZ, asking all partner countries to put planned naval visits/patrols on hold, until a revised mechanism is in place. This comes after China signed a pact with the Solomon Islands. US and Western allies are concerned the pact will be used to establish a Chinese military base in the region.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are supported in tandem with pressure in European gas prices, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, while the FTSE 100 lags somewhat after its Bank Holiday.
  • Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.9%, with the NQ +1.2% outperforming modestly as yields ease.
  • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk has filed an SEC filing on Twitter (TWTR); on Aug 29th, sent a letter to Twitter notifying he is terminating merger agreement for additional bases separate from bases set forth in July 8th, according to a letter.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY dips under 108.50 after seeing a mild bid overnight to a high of 108.90.
  • Antipodeans lead the gains whilst EUR feels a boost from receding European gas prices.
  • Haven FX are mixed vs the USD with JPY firmer and the CHF in the red.
  • Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • EGBs are bid as the benchmarks recoup from yesterday’s pressure, fresh fundamentals limited though European gas pricing easing has likely assisted.
  • Gilts remain subdued by over a full point, though off worst, as it catches up to the weekend’s hawkish rhetoric.
  • USTs are in-fitting with EZ peers and awaiting commentary from Fed’s Williams; yields slightly flatter.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent futures have pared back around half of the prior day’s gains; relatively pronounced pressure once more in European gas benchmarks.
  • Spot gold is modestly softer intraday and remains under its 21, 50, and 10 DMAs.
  • LME copper has fallen back under USD 8,000/t as the exchange plays catch-up following the UK bank holiday.
  • China was reported to provide Europe with an energy lifeline through the resale of surplus LNG, according to FT.
  • UK PM candidate Truss is set to approve a series of oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea in one of her first acts as PM, should she be elected, according to The Times
  • Canada said it is invoking the 1977 pipeline treaty with the US for the second time over Enbridge’s (ENB) Line 5 (540k BPD) dispute.
  • Sadrist protesters in Iraq reportedly closed the oil production distribution company in Basra and there were explosions in Baghdad’s Green Zone from mortars targeting the former PM’s residential area, according to Iraqi Day.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Spain is to propose the EU mimics its gas price system, via El Pais.
  • Germany said to be open to discussing an EU gas price cap at the September 9th summit, via Reuters citing an official.

NOTABLE DATA

  • German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Aug) 8.1% (Prev. 7.8%); MM (Aug) 0.3% (Prev. 1.1%)
  • Overall, the German State CPIs are in-fitting with expectations for the mainland reading at 13:00BST/08:00ET.
  • Spanish HICP Flash YY (Aug) 10.3% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.7%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US FDA is expected to authorize COVID booster shots targeting the most contagious strains as early as Wednesday, according to sources cited by Politico.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is bid but only modestly above the USD 20k mark overall and towards the mid-point of circa. USD 400 parameters.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were somewhat mixed as most of the regional bourses recouped some of the prior day’s losses but with gains capped amid a slew of earnings releases and as participants look towards month-end, as well as the upcoming risk events.
  • ASX 200 was led higher by the energy sector after recent gains in oil prices which printed a fresh monthly high and with strong earnings from Woodside Energy.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the psychologically key 28k level.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative with participants digesting earnings releases and amid further COVID-related disruptions as China’s Dalian region limited movements for five days and Shenzhen ordered to close the Huaqiangbei subdistrict which is a global electronics sourcing centre.
  • ICBC (1398 HK) – H2 2022 (CNY): net profit 171.51bln vs. Exp. 186.4bln, NII 351.4bln vs. Exp. 360.5bln.
  • Baidu Inc (BIDU) Q2 2022 (CNY): EPS 15.79 (exp. 10.46), Revenue 29.6bln (exp. 29.31bln).
  • Global funds invested into Evergrande’s (3333 HK) bonds have determined their own debt restructuring plan, via FT sources; demands the chair repay liabilities with own funds.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese Finance Ministry said it will make good use of local government special bonds and strictly curb new local government hidden debt in H2, while it will strive to stabilise employment and prices.
  • US President Biden’s administration plans to ask Congress to approve an estimated USD 1.1bln arms sale to Taiwan, according to Politico.
  • PBoC has issued draft rules to regulate related transactions of financial holding firms.
  • All industrial and business power usage has resumed in Sichuan as of August 30th, according to CCTV.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Building Approvals (Jul) -17.2% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -0.6%, Rev. -0.6%)
  • Australian Private House Approvals (Jun) 0.7% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. -1.8%)

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.51 PTS OR 0.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 74.18 OR 0.37%    /The Nikkei closed UP 316.82 OR % 1.14.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.8998//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.9103//    /Oil UP TO 94.17  dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 10.27//    / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

This may become quite problematic as one of China’s biggest commodity traders faces a liquidity crisis

(zerohedge)

One Of China’s Biggest Commodity Traders Faces Liquidity Crisis

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 11:20 PM

Citing “temporary difficulties in logistics, transportation and product sales due to Covid flareups in China,” one of China’s most influential commodities traders is pushing for a government bailout as a deepening property market collapse and ongoing Zero-COVID policy shutdowns has pressured many commodity companies as credit conditions tighten.

As Bloomberg reports, He Jinbi – founder and chairman of Maike Metals International – has asked the government and financial institutions for help after liquidity issues forced his company to delay some payments for imported copper. Additionally, He admitted that some suppliers have canceled deliveries due to concerns over the company’s ability to pay.

The company “is suffering temporary difficulties in logistics, transportation and product sales due to Covid flareups in China,” company founder and Chairman He Jinbi said in an interview on Friday

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, BHP Group, the world’s biggest miner, is among suppliers that are diverting shipments away from Maike for now. Additionally, Chile’s Codelco, the biggest global copper producer, has reportedly paused sales to Maike.

For now, Maike’s chairman claims the problems are only affecting 10,000 to 20,000 tons of refined copper, which accounts for a very small portion of the company’s supply, but one wonders why he would be urging government aid if this were a one-off, or a mere hiccup?

The company – which historically has been one of the biggest traders of copper in China – holds a substantial amount of the metal in Shanghai’s bonded zone, which is the center of refined copper trading in China. Copper rpices have been rather more volatile in the last week or so, spiking as Maike’s news made headlines and tumbling after The Fed’s hawkishness…

…but, as Bloomberg notes, this instance of financial stress comes after growing caution around commodities financing in the wake of high-profile losses – especially in the nickel market – and huge price volatility fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In China, several alleged scandals this year involving missing aluminum and copper ores have further reduced liquidity to the industry.

Watch this space…

end

China is aggressively reselling Russian LNG to Europe

(zerohedge)

China Is Aggressively Reselling Russian Gas To Europe

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 02:00 PM

One month ago, we were surprised to read how, despite a suppressed appetite for energy amid its housing crash and economic downturn (for which “zero covid” has emerged as a convenient scapegoat for emperor Xi), China has been soaking up more Russian natural gas so far this year, while imports from most other sources declined.

In July, the SCMP reported that according to Chinese customs data, in the first six months of the year, China bought a total of 2.35 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – valued at US$2.16 billion. The import volume increased by 28.7% year on year, with the value surging by 182%. It meant Russia has surpassed Indonesia and the United States to become China’s fourth-largest supplier of LNG so far this year!

This, of course, is not to be confused with pipeline gas, where Russian producer Gazprom recently announced that its daily supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline had reached a new all-time high (Russia is China’s second-largest pipeline natural gas supplier after Turkmenistan), and earlier revealed that the supply of Russian pipeline gas to China had increased by 63.4% in the first half of 2022.

What was behind this bizarre surge in Russian LNG imports, analysts speculated? After all, while China imports over half of the natural gas it consumes, with around two-thirds in the form of LNG, demand this year had fallen sharply amid economic headwinds and widespread shutdowns. In other words, why the surge in Russian LNG  when i) domestic demand is just not there and ii) at the expense of everyone else?

“The increase in Russian LNG could be a displacement of cargoes going to Japan or South Korea because of sanctions, or weaker demand there,” said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

One thing that was clear: China wanted to keep its arms-length gas dealing with Russia as unclear as possible, which is why the General Administration of Customs of China stopped publicizing the breakdown in trade volume for pipeline natural gas since the beginning of the year, with spokesman Li Kuiwen confirming that the move was to “protect the legitimate business rights and interests of the relevant importers and exporters”.

Well, we now know the answer: China has been quietly reselling that evil, tainted Russian LNG to the one place that desperately needs it more than anything. Europe… and of course, it is charging a kidney’s worth of markups in the process.

As the FT reported recently, “Europe’s fears of gas shortages heading into winter may have been circumvented, thanks to an unexpected white knight: China.” The Nikkei-owned publications further notes that “the world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas is reselling some of its surplus LNG cargoes due to weak energy demand at home. This has provided the spot market with an ample supply that Europe has tapped, despite the higher prices.”

What the FT ignores, perhaps intentionally, is that it’s not “surplus” – after all, if it was Chinese imports of Russian LNG would collapse. No – the correct word to describe the LNG that China sells to Europe is Russian.

Going back to the story, the details are intuitive: with Russian pipeline gas to Europe effectively shuttered…

… Europe’s imports of LNG have soared 60% year on year in the first six months of 2022, according to research firm Kpler.

Some more details:

China’s JOVO Group, a big LNG trader, recently disclosed that it had resold an LNG cargo to a European buyer.

A futures trader in Shanghai told Nikkei that the profit made from such a transaction could be in the tens of millions of dollars or even reach $100mn.

China’s biggest oil refiner Sinopec Group also acknowledged on an earnings call in April that it has been channelling excess LNG into the international market.

Local media have said that Sinopec alone has sold 45 cargoes of LNG, or about 3.15mn tonnes. The total amount of Chinese LNG that has been resold is probably more than 4mn tonnes, equivalent to 7 per cent of Europe’s gas imports in the half year to the end of June.

Make no mistake: all of this “excess” LNG was soured in part or in whole in Russia, but since it has been “tolled” in China, it is no longer Russian. It is instead – drumroll – Chinese LNG.

The good news is that the 53 million tonnes that the bloc purchased surpasses imports by China and Japan and has brought Europe’s gas-storage occupancy rate up to 77%.If this continues, Europe is likely to reach its stated goal of filling 80% of its gas storage facilities by November (at which point it will start draining the reserves at a breakneck pace to keep warm during the winter). But while China’s economic slump has brought much-needed relief to Europe, it comes with a major footnote. As soon as economic activity bounces back in China, the situation will quickly reverse, and Beijing will no longer re-export Russia LNG to keep Europe warm.

Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy – which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China – which makes a mockery of US geopolitical ambitions to defend a liberal international order with its own energy exports.

Worse, while Europe could buy Russian LNG for price X, it instead has to pay 2X, 3X or more, just to virtue signal to the world that it won’t fund Putin’s regime, when in reality is is paying extra to both Xi and to Putin, who is collecting a premium price thanks to the overall market scarcity.

Amusingly, without expressly stating it, the FT does imply that Europe is buying Russian LNG by way of China:

If Russia ends up exporting more gas to China as a means to punish Europe, China will have more capacity to resell its surplus gas to the spot market — indirectly helping Europe.

Why not just admit the obvious – that China is helping Russia skirt sanctions as both countries get very rich in the process? Because then the FT’s own judgment – after all, the newspaper is a conduit of the neoliberal thinking that demanded a complete embargo on Russian energy, an embargo which even the WSJ now admits (see “Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches“) has backfired spectacularly – would be put into question.

FT’s flaws aside, the newspaper is correct that the longer this kind of circuitous bypass of Russian sanctions by a hypocritical Europe (which signals its virtue so loudly when the adversary is Russia but doesn’t dare say peep when it’s China) continues, the bigger China’s influence on Europe will be:

The more desperate Europe becomes about its energy supplies, the more China’s policy decisions will have the power to affect the bloc. As Europe attempts to wrestle out of its dependence on Russia for energy, the irony is that it is becoming more dependent on China.

In the end, all Europe has done is replace one energy master (as Trump warned in 2018) with another, even though both are joined at the hip and laughing at the stupidity of Brussels which, under the sage advice of a petulant Scandinavian teenager, made all of this possible just in time for China – which together with Putin now determines Europe’s daily energy intake – to invade Taiwan without a peep from Europe’s virtuous signalers.

END

Kyle Bass: China Will Invade Taiwan In The Next 1-2 Years

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Adam Taggart via Welathion.com,

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass issues a fire warning to Western investors with equity stake in Chinese companies or government bonds. The warning is derived from both moral and self-interest perspectives.

Morally, Bass argues in a recent interview with Wealthion, investing in China helps to prop up one of the most flagrant abusers of basic human rights in our time. He also argues that divesting from China is in every foreigner’s self-interest as he sees the prospect of an economic war between the U.S. and China to be quite probable.

As Bass puts it, “I think it’s inevitable that they [China] move on Tawain… That changes the whole ballgame for people that have money invested in Chinese companies. They need to get it out right now.”

On the topic of removing China from SWIFT, Bass says that “behind the scenes we are talking about it right now.” Bass sits on an advisory board to the Department of Defense and is privy to these sorts of national security discussion.

The implications of such a geopolitical event would be massive.

It might mean China cutting on trade with the U.S. or a flash offloading of China’s Treasury Bond reserves, valued at over one trillion dollars.

Bass points out that China manufactures 95% of the pharmaceuticals we use here in the States.

To emphasize the gravity of this, Bass reminds listeners of early 2021, when the Biden administration attempted to launch an investigation into the origins of COVID. In response, the CCP threatened to withhold pharmaceutical exports.

The investigation promptly ended.

China, on the other hand, has several weak points of its own. It is far more entwined with the U.S. financial system and therefore would likely take a bigger hit from sanctions than Russia has experienced. Then again, the Ruble’s rapid rebound was shocking to most mainstream economists.

On top of that, China’s real estate market, which accounts for roughly 40% of its GDP, is showing signs of instability, leaving speculators at the whims of the ruling party. The demographics of the country have been in decline for many years now, and a massive surge in retirees without a commensurate increase in laborers has the potential to destabilize the entire economy.

Overall, Bass thinks we are entering a period of increasing volatility, especially for the month of September. He advises caution to investors and suggests that now is likely not the time to be invested in any markets. When stocks do become cheap, it’s his belief that the U.S. market will remain dominant; there are simply too many structural issues in both China and Europe.

Tune in to his full interview below to learn about specific investments Bass is making:

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

FRANCE/GAZPROM

Contract disputes has cut natural gas deliveries to France’s top utility Engie SA. Gazprom’s reduction in natural gas has previously hit Eastern Europe.  Now Western Europe is targeted.

(zerohedge)

Gazprom To Slash NatGas Deliveries To France’s Top Utility As Squeeze Worsens

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 08:45 AM

On Tuesday, Europe faced a worsening supply crunch after Russian energy giant Gazprom PSJC informed French utility Engie SA that natural gas supplies would immediately be reduced because of contract disagreements, reported Financial Times.

Engie said Gazprom notified it of “a reduction in gas deliveries, starting today, due to a disagreement between the parties on the application of some contracts.”

Gazprom’s reductions in NatGas over retaliation for sanctions related to its invasion of Ukraine have primarily targeted Germany and eastern Europe but now appear to extend to France. The continent is facing the worst energy crisis in half a century, sending prices of NatGas to record highs on supply shortage concerns ahead of the winter season. 

French Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher spoke with France Inter radio about the NatGas curbs to Engie, who warned: “We’re getting ready for the worst-case scenario, which is a complete cut-off.” She said Moscow is using NatGas as a weapon of war.

Engie’s deliveries of Russian NatGas averaged in the 17% range but have since slumped to only 4% in recent months. 

The good news is the utility announced it “had already secured the volumes necessary to meet its commitments towards its customers and its own requirements, and put in place several measures to significantly reduce any direct financial and physical impacts that could result from an interruption to gas supplies by Gazprom.”

The announcement follows the EU’s announcement on Monday to prepare emergency measures to reduce the price of electricity by separating it from soaring NatGas prices. 

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said Brussels was developing an “emergency intervention” and structural reforms to address elevated electricity prices. 

“Currently, gas dominates the price of the electricity market . . . with these exorbitant prices, we’ll have to decouple.

“We’ll have to ensure renewable energies are generated at lower costs, that those costs are transferred to consumers and windfall profits used to help vulnerable households. We need an emergency instrument which would be triggered very quickly, in weeks perhaps,” von der Leyen said.

Europe’s energy crisis deteriorated in August as the price of NatGas soared, rising more than $500 a barrel of oil equivalent last week. EU NatGas prices Tuesday morning are around 257 euros per megawatt-hour. 

France’s power situation has become direr due to the shutdowns of nuclear power plants. The country generates around 70% of its electricity needs from a fleet of 56 reactors, though 32 are offline for routine maintenance or corrosion risks. Less nuclear power has led the country to increase electricity imports from neighboring countries or become even more reliant on other power generation sources. 

Engie Executive Vice President Claire Waysand outlined France does have a buffer with NatGas storage facilities around 90% filled. Across the EU, the figure is about 79.4% as of Aug. 27, compared with the target of 80% by the start of November. 

Waysand also said the utility is holding discussions with Algeria’s Sonatrach as a move away from Russian supplies. Any new contract with the North African nation wouldn’t be finalized until after this winter. 

Europe is betting Norway could be their saving grace as the Scandinavian country surpasses Russia as the top supplier of NatGas to the energy-stricken continent. EU’s move to diversify NatGas supplies away from Gazprom isn’t an overnight process and could result in several dark and cold winters

end

EUROPE/NORWAY

Norway displaces Russia as Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier

(zerohedge)

Norway Displaces Russia As Europe’s Biggest NatGas Supplier

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 06:55 AM

The European Union is reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas and has made some progress. Norway has displaced Russia as the top supplier of NatGas to the EU as energy supply chains are rejiggered, reported Reuters, as Moscow reduces flows to EU countries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. 

According to government data in May, Norway ramped up NatGas production by at least 8% versus last year. This means the Scandinavian country could produce upwards of 122 billion cubic meters (bcm) of NatGas this year. 

Refinitiv Eikon data show Norway is now the largest supplier of NatGas to Europe, surpassing Russia, which has slashed Nord Stream capacity to just 20%. By Wednesday, the pipeline will undergo a surprise three-day shutdown for ‘maintenance’ work. 

Norwegian petroleum & energy minister Terje Aasland expects production levels can be sustained through the decade as new projects are coming online. This is undoubtedly a relief for the energy-stricken continent. 

“I expect that we can maintain the production levels we are at now until 2030. 

“We see that there are projects and also plans for development and operation coming now that can help maintain the high gas volumes going forward,” Terje Aasland told Reuters in an interview.

The energy minister said diversification of EU’s Natgas supplies away from Russia is critical. He said, “this is an important message to get from the EU.” 

Increasing flows from Norway also come as European Natas prices have tripled and repeatedly hit new records this summer. Though prices plunged on Monday from all-time highs reached last week following news Germany was ahead of schedule in filling up storage facilities ahead of winter. 

“In principle, the market is predictable. When there is scarcity, prices are high. That also contributes to increasing production and steers the gas to the markets that need it most,” Aasland said.

Despite Norway’s largest oil and gas producer, the majority state-owned Equinor, boosting renewable energy and low-carbon technologies investments, it will also increase hydrocarbon exploration projects to meet EU demand. 

Europe’s ability to unlock partial energy independence could be through Norway, as the oil-rich nation is now the largest supplier of NatGas to the continent and could be on track to sustain high production levels through at least 2030. 

end

Europe vs USA

a must read…

Tom Luongo….

Now Everyone Is Afraid Of Jerome Powell

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 10:27 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Back in January I wrote a piece called, “Who’s Afraid of Jerome Powell?” Then I discussed the incipient wailing and gnashing of teeth coming from those terrified of a hawkish Fed.

Our entire society has become so addicted to cheap dollars and easy credit that it created a “Ballers” mentality society wide.

Ballers is all about the corruption money brings to those few thousand people in the NFL and their organizations because of the millions of people who spend too much money on a passing fancy, entertainment.

The NFL, like all pro sports, is nothing but a money funnel with a Federal Reserve sized Hoover attached to it. It’s the ultimate corruption of e pluribus unum. From many to one.

Take a little bit from all of us, time and again to help us relieve the stress of the shitty world they’ve built. Give some of it to the rubes who play the game, who blow it on hookers, high end cars, and drugs, while the lion’s share gets sucked right back up into the same oligarch class that created it in the first place.

But it’s no different than you or me, buying shit we don’t need on credit, self-medicating with pro sports, alcohol, video games, day-trading cryptos on Robinhood, yelling at racists on Twitter or my personal favorite, a ridiculous board game collection.

We’re all ballers to one degree or another, spending easy money on distractions rather than facing the reality that the most unsustainable thing about our society is the money which makes it all happen.

Here we are eight months later and Powell has done exactly what I’d hoped he’d do, aggressively raise rates and begin shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet once his second term as FOMC chair was confirmed.

After July’s second 0.75% rate hike in as many meetings the talk was all about the ‘hints’ embedded in Powell’s demeanor and presser that the Fed was on the verge of pivoting and reversing rates. This talk has been going on since before the first 0.25% rate hike in March.

It reached a fever pitch after the July meeting because of a number of factors which have almost nothing to do with US domestic economic data or the needs of the US as a country. As I’ve discussed ad nauseum, the group most exposed to an aggressive Fed is not the US economy, which is what the headlines are now focusing on, but the European Union and the ECB.

I never expected Powell to indicate any kind of pivot talk at Jackson Hole last week. His nine-minute speech was the exact opposite of that. It was a complete dispelling of the illusion that the Fed has any mind to change course any time soon.

Powell explicitly addressed that this policy will lead to a prolonged recession. Moreover, he admitted that the current problem is a sincere mismatch between supply and demand. And, in the shock of all shocks, admitted what myself and a few others have been saying for months now, the Fed’s tools are not capable of dealing with the supply side of the economy, only demand.

In short, we have an oversupply of economic activity that supports the Baller lifestyle of the past and a deficit of things that support that lifestyle. All the Fed can do at this point is restore lost credibility with the markets and protect its future.

This, in my opinion, is exactly what they are doing.

The question is who is the Fed trying to protect itself from? It has been my contention for months that the Fed is no longer on board with coordinating Central Bank policy globally to suit the needs of foreign actors, in particular the European Union and the ECB.

By refusing to fold to the pressure earlier in the year and going forward with hiking farther and faster than anyone (including myself) thought they would or could the Fed has placed the ECB into a bind. Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole made tightened that bind to the breaking point.

Since most of our prominent politicians are on Team Davos the wailing will never stop. It took Elizabeth Warren all of twenty minutes to find a microphone to screech into:

“Do you know what’s worse than high prices and a strong economy? It’s high prices and millions of people out of work. I am very worried that the Fed is going to tip this economy into recession,” Warren told CNN on Sunday.

Yes, of course the Democrats are 1) still denying that we’re in a recession and 2) that it’s not their fault. But Warren, being the good destructionist she is, refuses to admit that there comes a point where you can no longer spend money to prop up an economy with these levels of imbalances.

This was precisely Powell’s point in his speech at Jackson Hole. And if Warren or any other so-called leader we have on Capitol Hill was willing to stop bitching and listen they would see what is clear to everyone.

The Baller Days are behind us.

The yacht’s trashed, the caterer left, the punch bowl empty and the credit cards maxed. Oh, and now there isn’t a new contract on the table. There’s no money left for trillions in giveaways to buy votes from people with no skin in America’s game.

But, since Lizzie works for those trying to destroy the US, of course she’s worried for the future. Where are her checks going to come from?

While the Fed has the magic money tree, even it, sometimes has to be watered and fertilized with something that looks like savings.

This is why everyone was afraid of Powell in January. They had rightly guessed that he was serious about the job of bringing back credibility to not just the Fed but the US as well.

The real pivot wasn’t the one that everyone wanted from Powell in some nebulous future. The real pivot occurred back in July when the ECB raised rates and announced their newest program to shuffle dec chairs, the TPI — Transmission Protection Instrument.

There ECB President Christine Lagarde announced she would defend internal European credit spreads to manage the risks within the EU as it now was being forced to raise interest rates.

But Lagarde never wanted to raise rates. But, as far behind the curve as Powell was in January, Lagarde was on a different track in July. This was her Mario “We will do whatever it takes” Draghi Moment and it fooled the markets for about a month.

And then the old trends reasserted themselves. The euro bounced to $1.04 and collapsed to a new low. German-US 10 year spreads blew out to 1.966% and has since contracted… hard.

So, while Lagarde is furiously trying to keep things under control in Europe, relative to the US it is losing ground now daily quickly. The US/German spread is a bet on the relative ‘safe haven’ status within each of these economic zones.

It doesn’t help that the EU is continuing to commit economic and political hara-kiri by engaging in idiotic energy policy across the continent in order to punish Russia for Europe’s crimes in Ukraine.

The WEF midwits put in charge of the EU to effect this policy refuse to change course.

I wrote when it happened that I thought Powell’s aggressive rate policy indirectly was responsible for the collapse of the Draghi government in Italy.

You know I believe the Fed is working to re-establish US primacy over its own monetary and fiscal policy, which tracks with the way Powell has raised rates and caused heart attacks within the Eurodollar system.

Moreover, when you look at the failures of the Biden administration to get any traction globally to isolate Russia you see a Davos agenda that is failing completely.

It then tracks that weak newcomers to the Italian Swamp, like those in M5S, may have finally been given enough assurance that the situation has changed. July’s 9.1% US CPI print was enough to really begin breaking things.

The Anti-Davos factions within the US are strong enough now for them to throw off the Davos yoke, as represented by Draghi, Mattarella and former PM Matteo Renzi, and begin Italy’s bid for independence.

The Fed responds to Davos taking out {The UK’s Boris} Johnson by taking out Draghi and putting the EU on a path to disintegration. The euro broke parity with the US dollar on this news. Now the ECB is staring at a vortex of higher rates as the Fed is clear to raise another 75-100 bps in two weeks.

Less than two weeks later, Draghi was gone, the ECB raised 50 bps and began crushing credit spreads while the Fed hiked another 75 bps.

But the ECB can never admit this or it destroys the idea of it being any kind of independent agent. Remember, central banking rests on the dubious idea that these people are apolitical and make their decisions only with respect to their domestic needs.

If Lagarde were to publicly attack Powell’s policy she would be admitting the ECB is subordinate to the whims of the Fed and that the only thing she’s good at is picking out neck scarves to wear at public speeches.

The pressure on the EU from their catastrophic energy policy now has them openly calling for an end to the Union’s political arrangement. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz just called for an end to single country veto power on fiscal and foreign policies. This is a naked power grab by Germany to enforce its will on the whole EU, ending any pretense of national sovereignty.

It’s not like this wasn’t expected. It’s always been the plan by Davos to consolidate power in Brussels under the direction of German Greens. The excuses of Climate Change and the need to punish Russia is now their twin casus belli against any opposition to their rule.

Where unanimity is required today, the risk of an individual country using its veto and preventing all the others from forging ahead increases with each additional member state,” the German chancellor said.

According to Scholz, “the principle of unanimity only works for as long as the pressure to act is low,” citing the example of Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine, which has challenged the way the EU approaches policymaking.

The German leader also wants the EU to switch to majority voting in areas such as taxation and foreign policy, adding that he knows “full well that this would also have repercussions for Germany.

This is a direct consequence of their losing multiple political battles here in the US and it is forcing them to go for the gold now versus in the future. Powell’s Fed is forcing this moment to its crisis point and the Eurocrats of Davos are not letting that crisis go to waste.

At the same conference they are now talking about price caps on energy the same way the G-7 did this summer. So, nothing has changed in Europe. They will go it alone if they have to in saving the world from Climate Change and Russians.

You rock on guys, winter is coming, after all. The only people who are against a hydrocarbon-fueled future are the ones without any significant reserves of hydrocarbon fuels. Let that sink and that should tell you what you need to know about European policy. The US is about power, but we have the natural resources to sustain our lifestyle.

Europe got so used to living a Baller lifestyle on cheap Russian gas, they thought they could do so forever and dictate terms to the world to subsidize it. It was so cheap Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Poszar calculated it as “$2 Trillion Of German Value Depends On $20 Billion Of Russian Gas.” And I guess they weren’t satisfied with that. It had to be more than 100x leverage, apparently.

They have to do this now because they are terrified of what Powell said on Friday. As is everyone else.

The virtuous cycle of infinite credit expansion is over.

I found this article at Zerohedge discussing the ECB’s shenanigans during Powell’s speech particularly illuminating. It seems Europe was trying to create a 1000 point drop in the Dow to ‘bad mouth’ Powell and manufacture consent that he’s the villain in this new psychodrama they have planned for us.

But it’s simply not going to work.

With each new headline out of Europe no matter how much they try to play the victim of US imperial ambitions the reality is that Europe did this to themselves.

You can’t virtue signal yourself out of a depression of your own making. Those with money will simply abandon you. And those who you thought were your friends were really just guys who wanted free chicken wings, beer and a nice place to crash. It certainly beat starving in Africa.

They had a clear choice, just as we had decades ago. They chose poorly.

And now we get to watch their quest for fire and material pursuit of power for its own sake come to naught. The orgy of debt is over. And the best part is that Misters Powell and Putin didn’t even have to ask the Germans to turn out the lights before they left, they did that themselves.

*  *  *

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

IRAN/USA

Iran gives the West an ultimatum on its nuclear deal.  It starts to enrich uranium at Natanz

(zerohedge)

Iran Gives West Ultimatum On Nuclear Deal As It Starts Enriching Uranium At Natanz

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Iran has issued an ultimatum which further suggests that at a moment a restored nuclear deal is reportedly at the ‘finish line’ (or hanging by a thread, depending on the source) – it could be on the brink of unraveling in this final crucial stage. 

“Iran’s president warned Monday that any roadmap to restore Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers must see international inspectors end their probe on man-made uranium particles found at undeclared sites in the country,” the AP reports.

This has been a key demand of the Iranian side particularly over the past months, but the US and its ally Israel in the background have claimed the withdraw of inspectors will only more easily allow the Islamic Republic to pursue a covert nuclear weapons program under cover of a restored JCPOA.

The IAEA has long demanded answers after man-made uranium particles were found at undeclared sites inside Iran. President Ebrahim Raisi addressed this in his Monday speech:

As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran is obligated to explain the radioactive traces and to provide assurances that they are not being used as part of a nuclear weapons program. Iran found itself criticized by the IAEA’s Board of Governors in June over its failure to answer questions about the sites to the inspectors’ satisfaction.

Raisi mentioned the traces — referring to its as a “safeguards” issue using the IAEA’s language.

“Without settlement of safeguard issues, speaking about an agreement has no meaning,” Raisi said.

Thus his words point to an agreement on the “final text” being anything but a done deal.

Complicating things further, Reuters in a Monday afternoon report, citing the IAEA, says:

Iran has started enriching uranium with one of three cascades, or clusters, of advanced IR-6 centrifuges recently installed at its underground enrichment plant at Natanz, a report by the U.N. atomic watchdog to member states seen by Reuters said on Monday.

Iran is using the cascade of up to 174 machines to enrich uranium to up to 5% purity, the confidential report said.

Critics of the negotiations and a restored JCPAO will be sure to pounce on this, particularly at a moment that top Israeli officials are in Washington seeking to lobby the White House against a deal. 

Meanwhile, Iranian state media is reporting that Tehran is still reviewing Washington’s response to the ‘final text’ after the EU delivered it last week, and is not expected to give formal reply until Friday, September 2.

end

Ukraine Fatigue? British War Support Wanes Amid Energy Hyperinflation | ZeroHedge

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:41 AM (3 minutes ago)
to

The real reason the Ukies keep attacking the nuclear facility is to stay relevant in the news cycle as many people grow weary of the Ukraine and it’s farce of a war with Russia is more about laundering cash off weapon sales into pockets than anything else. With 70% of weapons and ammo never reaching the troops because it is being sold off, how can this be credible? Perhaps the real question is how politicians can remain given this and the fact energy prices are pushing many people into energy poverty as economies tank.
War fought with purpose and true effort is quite different than this falsehood or gun running masked by conflict. What remains to be suffered as a future result from this gun running operation is how many groups have been armed and where new conflicts and terrorism will occur as result, in the future. No doubt there will be a future price to pay from all these sales that will inflict damage to many innocent people.
Perhaps effort should occur to inquire and publicly disclose who is receiving cash from these weapon and ammo sales. Because it is not limited to Ukrainians like Zelensky.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES/

Judge Rules COVID Vaccine Mandate For DC Government Workers Is Unconstitutional

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Washington D.C. superior court judge ruled Thursday that the city’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate that was imposed on city employees is unlawful.

An order that was handed down by Judge Maurice A. Ross was a response to a lawsuit filed by the Washington D.C. Police Union and other groups that opposed Mayor Muriel Bowser’s mandate. Bowser in August of last year ordered city government employees to provide proof of vaccination although some workers could seek a medical or religious exemption to the shot.

A vaccine mandate is not an everyday exercise of power,” Ross wrote in his 17-page ruling (pdf). “It is instead a significant encroachment into the life—and health—of an employee. It is strikingly unlike any other workplace regulations typically imposed, as it ‘cannot be undone at the end of the workday.’ Thus, there is an expectation that a vaccine mandate must come from a legislative body.”

Ross also argued that the legal “system does not permit the Mayor to act unlawfully even in the pursuit of desirable ends,” including curbing COVID-19, adding that “the Mayor lacks legal authority to impose a vaccine mandate on Plaintiffs.”

The judge rejected city lawyers’ arguments that Bowser could impose a vaccine mandate in her capacity to regulate occupational and workplace hazards. The Biden administration made a similar claim to the U.S. Supreme Court last year on its vaccine mandate for private businesses before the court struck the rule down in January.

“Although COVID-19 is a risk that can occur in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most,” Ross wrote in his order.

Response

It means the city can’t enforce the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Meanwhile, disciplinary actions that were taken to enforce compliance can be reversed, according to Ross’s ruling.

The DC Police Union praised the decision and said it will ensure that its officers won’t be terminated or forced to take the vaccine.

“Had the Mayor just engaged the Union in good faith bargaining, we would have reached a reasonable compromise that protected everyone’s interests,” Gregg Pemberton, the chairman of the union, said in a statement. “Now, all of our members can go back to do the necessary work of trying to protect our communities from crime and violence without unlawful threats of discipline and termination.”

Read more here…

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DeSantis Calls For “Reckoning” Of Fauci If Republicans Take Congress

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called on Republicans in Congress to investigate White House COVID-19 adviser Anthony Fauci if they take control of Congress and following statements from Fauci that he’s stepping down soon.

If the Republicans take control, we need a reckoning on all of this,” he told Dan Bongino, adding that during the pandemic, Fauci “criticized me every step of the way.” The 81-year-old White House adviser had been “wrong on all the important” issues relating to COVID-19, said the governor.

For example, said DeSantis, Fauci tried to “sow fear in the population and scared a lot of parents” when he called for schools to be shut down for in-person learning. “We can never go down that road,” DeSantis said, adding that Fauci and other federal government officials in the future will again pivot to saying that lockdown measures did not go far enough.

His comments about Fauci came after Bongino played a video of Fauci asserting that COVID-19 lockdowns did not cause damage to people, although some studies have shown otherwise.

Notably, after initially supporting some COVID-19-related rules in early 2020, DeSantis later rescinded most of them and refused to impose new mandates.

In Florida, we will not let them lock you down,” the governor said during an event in December 2021. “We will not let them take your jobs, we will not let them harm your businesses, we will not let them close your schools.”

DeSantis is running for reelection as governor during the 2022 midterms, although he has been flagged as a possible presidential candidate for 2024—especially if former President Donald Trump decides not to run again. Amid the speculation, DeSantis has declined to comment on running for president and often says he is focusing on getting reelected.

Stepping Down

Last week, Fauci issued a statement via the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the agency he’s headed since 1984, that he will be stepping down by December from his position as chief of NIAID, the head of the agency’s Laboratory of Immunoregulation, and top medical adviser to President Joe Biden.

Read more here…

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Unvaxxed Coast Guard Cadets Given 24 Hours To Leave Campus

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Coast Guard Academy cadets who have refused the Covid-19 vaccine on religious grounds were ordered to vacate the campus within 24 hours of receiving notification that their cases had undergone final military adjudication, after their religious accommodation requests (RAR) for exemptions were denied in May.

In June, the Coast Guard Academy gave notice that the unvaccinated cadets would be disenrolled, while the appeals were formally rejected on Aug. 15. They failed to notify the cadets for three days, after which they gave them just one day to vacate the campus, according to Just the News.

After being ordered to leave within 24 hours of being notified that their disenrollment appeals were denied, the seven unvaccinated Coast Guard cadets had to pack up everything and figure out how to get themselves and all their belongings home before the deadline, one cadet told Just the News on Monday.

The cadets are still enrolled in the academy and receive pay — which the cadet said is like “pennies,” anyway — as they’re on temporary duty at their home addresses. Thus, they are required to attend their military trainings online, despite being unable to attend classes that started on Aug. 22. -Just the News

What’s more, because they’re still technically enrolled, they can’t leave the Coast Guard to seek other options for education or work. One cadet told JTN that it’s too late to transfer to another college at this point in the semester, and that only part of their credits would transfer over to another institution anyway. 

Two of those told to leave are seniors, one is a junior and four are sophomores.

According to the caadet, the academy claims they aren’t violating a protected stay order in a class action lawsuit against the vaccine mandate, Clements v. Austin, which allows the unvaccinated cadets to remain enrolled at the academy through Sept. 1, after which they can be disenrolled.

Attorneys for the cadets have requested a temporary restraining order against the vaccine mandate for the duration of litigation. The lawsuit claims that because the COVID-19 vaccine was ordered under emergency use authorization (EUA) – vs. full FDA approval – that the military can’t force them to take it.

The steps taken by the Coast Guard Academy are clear religious discrimination against Christians and reflect a total disdain for the faith and constitutional rights of cadets,” Military attorney R. Davis Younts told Just the News on Tuesday. “The actions of the Coast Guard continue to have a devastating impact on morale and military readiness. Worse, these actions appear to be based on a lack of moral courage among the leaders of the Coast Guard. With the new CDC guidance, there is simply no medical or scientific justification for treating young men and women who have worked so hard to earn a commission like pariahs.”

Read more here

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Premiere (8/29/2022): Ivermectin: The Truth | Prophecy

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:34 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

https://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2022/08/premiere-8292022-ivermectin-the-truth-2533484.html

Paul Alexander..

Open in browserBill Maher: “Hunter Biden laptop story was suppressed in ‘conspiracy to get rid of’ Trump”; I cannot say it any better, big PROPS to Bill; Trump just shared the agent heading raid hid Hunter’s laptop?
Say it ain’t so FBI, say it ain’t so! Trump just shared that the FBI agent who headed the Mar-a-Lago raid was the same one who hid, suppressed Hunter Biden’s Laptop? What?
Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 30
I defend the FBI and law enforcement all the time. But this stinks to high heavens. Something is very not right with all of this. I know there are great above board agents, they must step forward!
SOURCE
Hunter Biden’s laptop 
was buried by the press, even the head of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, said that was a mistake. They buried the story,” Maher told his guests comedian Rob Reiner and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota).The host then went on to reference author Sam Harris’s recent podcast interview claiming a coordinated effort to suppress Hunter Biden news was “warranted.”

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Open in browserUS army cuts Off More Than 60K Unvaccinated Guard & Reserve Soldiers from Pay & Benefits; what a deplorable horrible act on men & women who have served & sacrificed, without any scientific basis
The Biden administration has betrayed our service men and women and with no underlying science to support this as the COVID vaccine is ineffective, failed, and unsafe & causes infection.
Dr. Paul Alexander
Aug 29
‘Some 40,000 National Guard and 22,000 Reserve soldiers who refused to be vaccinated against COVID-19 are no longer allowed to participate in their military duties, also effectively cutting them off from some of their military benefits, Army officials announced Friday. “Soldiers who refuse the vaccination order without an approved or pending exemption request are subject to adverse administrative actions, including flags, bars to service, and official reprimands,” an Army spokesperson said in a statement.

The move comes in the midst of the annual training season, during which part-time soldiers are often ordered to serve from two weeks to a month with their units for summer training exercises. Those training events are usually critical for soldiers to sharpen their military skills and for unit commanders to ensure their formations are ready to deploy if needed. 
If the soldiers continue to refuse the vaccine, the consequences could be even more dire. “In the future, Soldiers who continue to refuse the vaccination order without an exemption may be subject to additional adverse administrative action, including separation,” the Army spokesperson said.
The long-term impact may mean many soldiers would be forced to leave, a devastating outcome especially in the middle of a recruiting crisis as Defense Department officials struggle to fill the ranks. Soldiers will be allowed to come on duty and earn their pay in order to be vaccinated or to take part in separation procedures. “We’re going to give every soldier every opportunity to get vaccinated and continue their military career,” Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director of the Army Guard, told Military.com in an emailed statement. “We’re not giving up on anybody until the separation paperwork is signed and completed.”The Army National Guard and Reserve deadline to receive the vaccine was June 30, the latest of all the services, which required vaccination last year. As of July 1, 13% of the Army Guard and 12% of the Reserve is unvaccinated. Part-time soldiers with a pending medical or religious exemption for the vaccine may continue to train with their units and collect pay and benefits. But exemption approvals are rare. The vaccines have some rare side effects, including heart inflammation that has affected at least 22 service members, according to a study from the JAMA Network. Only six Guard soldiers across all states and territories have permanent medical exemptions for the vaccine, out of 53 who requested one, according to Army data. No Reserve soldiers have a medical exemption. No Guard or Reserve soldiers have been approved for a religious exemption after nearly 3,000 requests. It is unclear what would qualify a soldier for a waiver on religious grounds. Soldiers are required to be innoculated against at least a dozen other ailments, including the flu and hepatitis. And no major religious leaders have come out against vaccines.Army officials have stopped short of outlining a clear plan on removing part-time soldiers, particularly Guardsmen, from service for continuing to refuse the vaccine. As of now, Guardsmen are barred only from attending federally funded drills and other training events, which make up the bulk of their service. While Guardsmen technically serve under their respective governors during their typical weekend duties, those weekends are federally funded. Multiple Republican governors have vowed not to kick out Guardsmen who remain unvaccinated. It’s unclear how easy it will be for the Defense Department to enforce its decision to bar unvaccinated Guardsmen from pay and benefits. On paper, the only thing an unvaccinated Guard soldier is qualified for now is state active-duty orders, a comparatively rare tool for a governor to activate their Guard for short-term emergencies such as hurricane relief and responding to domestic disturbances. SAD duties are usually short term. However, there are outliers such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has used SAD orders lasting up to a year to mobilize thousands of troops for missions on the U.S.-Mexico border.But SAD duties do not qualify Guardsmen for federal benefits or retirement — effectively shutting them out of all of the military’s service incentives other than a paycheck. Reserve soldiers fall exclusively under the federal government, possibly making it easier to separate them from service. As of Friday, 1,148 active-duty soldiers have been removed from the Army for failing to comply with the vaccine mandate. ‘— Steve Beynon can be reached at Steve.Beynon@military.com. Follow him on Twitter @StevenBeynon.
SOURCE
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Denmark, Northern Jutland: I wrote on this paper early in 2021: “Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland (Planeta Kepp & Christian Bjørnskov)

Our analysis shows that while infection levels decreased, they did so before lockdown was effective, and infection numbers also decreased in neighbour municipalities without mandates.

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 29

Some key seminal evidence arguing against lockdowns and societal restrictions emerged in 2021 from a recent quasi-natural experiment (case-controlled experimental data) in the Northern Jutland region in Denmark. Seven of the 11 municipalities (similar and comparable) in the region went into extreme lockdown that involved a travel ban across municipal borders, closing schools, the hospitality sector and other settings and venues (in early November 2020) while the four remaining municipalities employed the usual restrictions of the rest of the nation (moderate). Researchers reported that reductions in infection had occurred prior to the lockdowns and also decreased in the four municipalities without lockdowns. Conclusion: surveillance and voluntary compliance make lockdowns essentially meaningless. 

“The exact impact of lockdowns and other NPIs on Sars-CoV-2 transmission remain a matter of debate as early models assumed 100% susceptible homogenously transmitting populations, an assumption known to overestimate counterfactual transmission, and since most real epidemiological data are subject to massive confounding variables. Here, we analyse the unique case-controlled epidemiological dataset arising from the selective lockdown of parts of Northern Denmark, but not others, as a consequence of the spread of mink-related mutations in November 2020. Our analysis shows that while infection levels decreased, they did so before lockdown was effective, and infection numbers also decreased in neighbour municipalities without mandates. Direct spill-over to neighbour municipalities or the simultaneous mass testing do not explain this. Instead, control of infection pockets possibly together with voluntary social behaviour was apparently effective before the mandate, explaining why the infection decline occurred before and in both the mandated and non-mandated areas.

The data suggest that efficient infection surveillance and voluntary compliance make full lockdowns unnecessary at least in some circumstances.

Moreover, in a similarly comprehensive prior analysis of global statistics regarding Covid, carried out by Chaudhry and company involved assessment of the top 50 countries (ranked as having the most cases of Covid) and concluded that “rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and widespread testing were not associated with Covid mortality per million people.” Conclusion: there is no evidence that the restrictive government actions saved lives.

URGENT: OMICRON BA.2.75 sub-variant may be a problem, pre-print study in hamsters suggest BA.2.75 is more infectious & harmful than even dominant BA.5 & BA.2; BA.2.75 caused focal viral pneumonia…

in hamsters, characterized by patchy inflammation interspersed in alveolar regions, not observed in BA.5-infected hamsters. BA.2.75 replicated better than BA.5 in the lungs of hamsters.

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 30

SOURCE

‘The prevalence of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.75 is rapidly increasing in India and Nepal. In addition, BA.2.75 has been detected in at least 34 other countries and is spreading globally. However, the virological features of BA.2.75 are largely unknown. Here, we evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of BA.2.75 clinical isolates in Syrian hamsters. Although we found no substantial differences in weight change among hamsters infected with BA.2, BA.5, or BA.2.75, the replicative ability of BA.2.75 in the lungs was higher than that of BA.2 and BA.5. Of note, BA.2.75 caused focal viral pneumonia in hamsters, characterized by patchy inflammation interspersed in alveolar regions, which was not observed in BA.5-infected hamsters. Moreover, in competition assays, BA.2.75 replicated better than BA.5 in the lungs of hamsters. These results suggest that BA.2.75 can cause more severe respiratory disease than BA.5 and BA.2 and should be closely monitored.’

Vaccine Impact

Vaccine Injury


The Coming Food Crisis is Being Engineered by the United NationsAugust 29, 2022 2:28 pmThe folks over at the UN stopped destroying the world for a brief few minutes to publish a piece justifying their behavior and explaining the “benefits” of the famine they’ve engineered. Not making this up. The article remained on the UN website for a day or so before being deleted after it went viral on social media, with people horrified at the truly unbelievable evil. The good thing about this is that as they continue with their predictive programming and NLP (seriously, look into both and it promises to blow your mind), more and more people wake from their trance. Once woken, they realize the incredible danger they are all in. And that is a good thing because you can’t fight an enemy until you understand one exists. The “great reset” requires a populace beholden to the government and nobody else. As the central planners pursue their agenda of getting there, this is bound to be fraught with an awakening and a lot of angst.
Read More..


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Vaccine InjuryYoung doctors in Canada are dying at a rate 23X normal after the second boosterInboxRobert Hryniak2:45 PM (8 minutes ago)
He is correcthttps://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/doctors-in-canada-are-dying-at-a?utm_medium=email

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

“Of Course, The Real Problem Is That Europe Doesn’t Have Any Energy Supplies”

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 09:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets saw choppy and mostly gloomy trade on Monday as they responded to the Jackson Hole message that rates are going to be higher for longer. Stocks were down, bond yields were up, and the US dollar was close to a new fresh high on the broad Bloomberg index: in particular, at time of writing USD/JPY was at 138.7 and USD/CNY is 6.91 – 7 here we come (again)! It goes without saying that EUR/USD was around parity, but fundamentals suggest it won’t stay there for long: it’s going well under. That is despite the fact that away from the financial media focus on Powell saying the same thing he has been saying for weeks (and equity markets have been steadily ignoring, “because markets”), one of the biggest sea-changes at J-Hole was in the stance from Europe.

In particular, we got a speech from the ECB’s Schnabel, ‘Monetary policy and the Great Volatility’, which did the unthinkable (for the Fed) – it mentioned the geopolitical backdrop as a key driver of inflation, not the abstract ‘”supply chains”, and noted that this was likely to be a structural feature not a temporary blip. Moreover, the world was drifting apart to boot. As she put it:

The Great Moderation was a period of prosperity and broad macroeconomic stability. The volatility of both inflation and output declined, the length of economic expansions increased, and people in most economies experienced sustained improvements in their standards of living…. Yet, monetary policy was not the only factor behind [it]. Good luck, in the sense of a smaller variance of the shocks hitting the global economy, is widely believed to have played an important role as well…”

Except it wasn’t “luck”: you don’t need to embrace historical materialism and dialectics to see history is not about linear trends or steady states – or even steady nation-states.

Anyway, Schnabel continued:

The question I would like to discuss… is whether the pandemic, and more recently Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will herald a turning point for macroeconomic stability – that is, whether the Great Moderation will give way to a period of “Great Volatility” – or whether these shocks, albeit significant, will ultimately prove temporary, as was the case for the global financial crisis.”

Her conclusion is the same as mine: these shocks are *not* temporary, and while “Globalisation acted as a gigantic shock absorber The pandemic and the war are likely to add to instability in the years to come.” Moreover, as predicted here continuously since 2015’s ‘FX Wars’ and 2016’s ‘Thin Ice’, “Today, the world economy is at risk of fracturing into competing security and trade blocs. The international network that connects our economies is fragile. We are witnessing new and alarming forms of protectionism.”

Of course, Schnabel was of the view that a determined commitment to Volckeresque high rates for as long as needed could break the back of this inflation. Thus, partly, the market sell-off. However, she overlooks that what did the inflation trick for Volcker was neoliberal supply-side reforms and globalization, which destroyed the power of labor vs. capital. That’s a trick that can only be played once and arguably needs to be reversed to bring inflation down this time (i.e., nationalization, onshoring, forcing private capital to invest productively, not speculate, and redistribution to prop up final demand to support local production) alongside higher rates. Schnabel of course didn’t go there. But somebody who can read history will.

The sense of intellectual retreat to match the market’s was also evident in yesterday’s Bloomberg op-ed, ‘The West Needs Friendshoring, Not Reshoring’. This put China in the same geopolitical basket as Russia, which presumed UK PM Truss is also about to do too, yet begs that rather than reshore, the West should friendshore to retain as much of the neoliberal architecture as possible – just with people who are more liberal: “In the short term, the current revolution in the world’s supply chains will inevitably bring much pain, from sudden surges in the price of energy of the sort now tormenting Europe to a more general inflationary pressure. In the longer term, however, if we can handle the revolution properly, showing a mixture of restraint and foresight, firmness and dissimilitude, we can produce a healthier global economy – one that preserves the advantages of world-stretching supply chains while gradually freeing us from dependence on the whims of the autocrats in Moscow and Beijing.” Which still involves splitting the world in two.

Fusing all the above arguments, yesterday was also notable for the EU making a grand declaration on resolving its current energy crisis. Steps will be taken to de-link the price of electricity, now over EUR1,000 per MWh(!), from the price of gas, which while still at insane highs, tumbled yesterday in thin trading. Furthermore, measures will be taken to ensure renewable energies are generated at lower costs, and consumers directly benefit, price caps, windfall profits taxes, and, potentially, rationing. Talk about a retreat from neoliberalism!

On one hand, this is no surprise. Polanyi argued markets are ultimately always subservient to society, and right now society does not want to freeze or go hungry. However, understand this is not just  a ‘technical decoupling of marginal trading linkages’ – it is dismantling market pricing, and the moral (and financial) argument for having the private sector involved in energy at all, except where their capital is directed by government, for a socially-acceptable rate of return. And after energy, where next, given our long list of supply short-falls and Achilles’ Heels?

Welcome to industrial policy. Welcome to corporatism (one definition of which is fascism). Welcome to Common Prosperity. Welcome also to the mixed-economy model European nation-states used to build their power systems until the 1980s and neoliberalism.

Of course, the real problem is that Europe doesn’t have any energy supplies to force state or private capital into – or at least not ones it is prepared to tap: indeed, Germany’s economy minister says the “bitter reality” is that Russia will not resume gas supply. Enjoy those stocks you have built up at huge expense, because there will be far less flow ahead.

As such, what power source will the EU link electricity prices to? Solar panels, in winter when northern Europe’s energy requirements are at their highest? Burning the M&Ms that unicorns excrete?

Underlining the point, Brent oil prices rose 4% to over $105 yesterday before retreating slightly (and wheat and corn went up 3-4% too, showing that central banks are still behind the curve on that front); Iraq slipped into chaos, with the US airlifting its personnel out of another Greater Middle East embassy(!); it was rumored OPEC+ may announce a production cut ahead; that the US might have to dip into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve even more – as if there can’t be a real crisis that demands its use ahead; and US Department of Defence spokesman Kirby warned he was concerned about the possibility of energy shortages ahead.

The brutal lesson is that neoliberalism is like a chocolate teapot – it looks amazingly sweet until things get ‘hot’, and then it serves no purpose at all. Yet industrial policy/corporatism/fascism/Common Prosperity also needs to be based on the real, and realpolitik, not the ideal. If the EU throws de facto MMT/printed money at energy subsidies within a neoliberal framework with no concrete, achievable plan for more energy supply (of what? From whom?) then it is simply going to drive global energy prices higher, many EM into the ground – some of whom are located close to Europe, EUR well through the parity floor, and inflation still into the sky. So let’s hope there is joined-up thinking behind their latest proposals.

Relatedly, the title of today’s Daily, ‘The Power of the Powerless’ (which I have used before) addresses the energy situation in Europe, but was also the title of a political pamphlet by dissident Vaclav Havel against communist Czechoslovakia. He argued the first step to bringing down the regime was for a powerless greengrocer not to place the state-backed sign saying, ‘Workers of the World, Unite!’ in his window. If Europe (and others) had done the same with certain neoliberal-approved signs they arguably would not be in the critical mess they are in now.

Finally, and also linked to the Daily title –as even the ECB agrees with me!– military reports are that a Ukrainian Kherson counter-offensive has begun. Market participants who have read any history will know that watching the success or failure on that key front will likely also be key to the global geopolitical and inflation outlook longer term. Far more so than most central bank warble, regardless of how much power they like to think they have.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Europe’s gas crisis could continue for multiple winters according to Shell CEO

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Shell CEO: Europe’s Gas Crisis Could Continue For Multiple Winters

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Europe could continue scrambling for gas supply for a number of winters due to low gas flows from Russia, according to the chief executive officer of supermajor Shell. 

“It may well be that we will have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions,” Shell’s top executive Ben van Beurden said at a conference in Norway on Monday, as carried by Reuters.

Gas and power prices in Europe were setting fresh records every day of the past week, as natural gas supply from Russia continues to be limited ahead of the winter. 

Energy prices in Europe have been smashing records after Russia’s Gazprom said on August 19 that it would halt all deliveries via Nord Stream to Germany for three days between August 31 and September 2. This announcement raised renewed concerns that supply via the pipeline could be further cut or halted altogether after the three-day unplanned maintenance at the end of August.    

Soaring energy prices are fueling inflation and adding to the burden on households and industries across Europe.  

In France, year-ahead power prices surged as much as 13% on Friday alone, to $1,003 (1,000 euro) per megawatt-hour for the first time ever, per Bloomberg’s estimates. French power prices have now soared tenfold over the past year. 

Apart from rallying gas and power prices in the rest of Europe, France’s electricity supply is constrained by outages at some of its nuclear power plants. 

In Germany, year-ahead electricity prices also hit a record of $843 (840 euro) per MWh on Friday, surging by 50% last week alone.

Last week, Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub surged by 40% amid fears of a winter crunch in supplies. 

This week, early on Monday the benchmark gas price slumped by 16% in early trade in Amsterdam, after Germany said its gas storage sites were filling at a faster pace than previously thought. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU gas storage was over 79% full as of August 28, with Germany’s storage at nearly 83% full. 

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Oil Slides As Iraq Vows No Interruption In Exports Amid Violence

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 10:00 AM

Oil tumbled, completely reversing and then some Monday’s biggest rise in six weeks as traders still weighed potential supply disruptions, including the possibility of an OPEC+ output cut offset by hopes that the Iraq social unrest won’t translate into export cuts after Iraq’s state oil marketing company said exports would continue uninterrupted despite the recent violence. Striking a more bullish note, Goldman Sachs urged investors to “buy commodities now, worry about the recession later” but as always, the market knows to fade every single Goldman call and this one was no different.

Some more details: according to Alaa Al-Yassiri, director general of state-run oil marketing company SOMO, Iraq’s oil exports are continuing uninterrupted amid violence in the country. Iraq plans to export 3.35 million b/d of crude from the south and between 75,000-90,000 b/d from the north of the country this month, he said. The country has the capacity to boost oil exports to all destinations and it won’t refuse any request for more oil.

Elsewhere, OPEC crude production rose by 470,000 b/d to 28.43 million b/d in August, JBC Energy said in a note. Saudi Arabia’s output increased by 70,000 b/d to 10.55 million a day, Libya’s gained 290,000 b/d to 990,000 a day, while UAE pumped 3.19 million b/d, 70k a day more than in July.

As a bonus, here is a snippet from the latest US Oil and Gas reported by BofA’s Doug Leggate in which he published his “Discussion with BofA oil traders” and features Peter Doyle, Director of Oil Trading, BofA Securities. Here are the highlights from the discussion:

  • Oil markets: Markets remain focused on short term demand as seasonal changes, bad economic data coming out of Asia, and refinery turnarounds weigh on prices. However, markets are still expecting to end the year strong as the SPR ends, taking ~1mnbpd of the market, and refineries run hard to try and build distillate stocks for winter in the EU. Gas to oil switching will be a large driver of crude demand too, expect products to lead oil.
  • Oil trading: Oil markets remain in an irregular position due to a lack of liquidity. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister’s comments were valid since there is no position in the market. The Russia Ukraine conflict increased volatility where the commodity price could move $15 in a day increasing the cost to trade and driving positioning out of the market. Also, producers hedging less has removed sellers in the market.
  • Gasoline demand: Data right after the July 4th weekend was ugly but it is normally noising during that time of year. We could still see gasoline cracks roll up in 2023 and 2024.

Finally, while oil prices are clearly on the defensive as of 10am ET, largely a function of the complete reversal of CTA buying seen on Monday in the extremely illiquid oil market, expect this to reverse again once the same CTAs and other fast money traders realize that the biggest headline of the morning…

  • *TAIWAN’S MILITARY FIRED WARNING SHOTS AT CHINESE DRONE

… is anything but bearish for commodities.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

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Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0031 UP  0.0021 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 138.26   DOWN  0.379 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1717 DOWN   0.0005

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.51 POINTS OR 0.42%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 74.19 PTS OR 0.37% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.51%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 74.19 PTS OR  0.37% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.51 PTS  OR 0.42% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.51% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 316.62 OR 1.14%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1731.75

silver:$18.65

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 108.46 DOWN 35  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.58% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.219% DOWN 2    AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.69%// DOWN 0  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.813  UP 2   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.4995% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA  1.0023 UP  .0015   or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 138.73 UP 0.072 OR YEN DOWN 7 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1666 DOWN.0055 OR 55 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0079 OR 79 BASIS pts  to 1.3080

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.9119 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9189

TURKISH LIRA:  18.19  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.219

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.121% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.236 DOWN 1  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 108.67 DOWN 14 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 62.57 PTS OR  0.84%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.55%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN 7.61 PTS OR 0.12% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 1.40 OR  0.02%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 3.11 PTS OR  0.01%

WTI Oil price 92.44  12: EST

Brent Oil:  99.27 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  59.85  UP 0  AND 54/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.4995

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0020 UP .0010     OR  10 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1656 DOWN  .0065 or  65 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.78 UP 0.148//YEN DOWN 15 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3096 UP 0.0094  (CDN dollar, DOWN 94 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.89

Brent OIL:  99.32

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.114 DOWN 0 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.223  DOWN 2  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.18

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  59.94  UP 0 AND    46 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 308.12 PTS OR 0.96 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 141.62 PTS OR 1/13%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.59 UP 0.38 PTS (1.45)%

GLD: $161.86 DOWN $1.35 OR 0.83%

SLV/ $17.63 DOWN 33 CENTS OR 1.91%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bad ‘Good News’ Batters Big-Tech, Bitcoin, Black-Gold, & Bonds

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Hotter than expected German inflation and sliding European economic confidence combined with a double whammy of hot JOLTS data and better than expected consumer sentiment was just enough good news to be more bad news for bulls who continue to hope for a Jay Powell “just kidding” moment. Stocks also suffered from geopolitical risk premium pain too as Taiwan fired live ammo at a Chinese drone for the first time.

Instead, rate-hike expectations extended recent hawkish gains today, pushing up to their highest since the cycle began…

…suggesting US equities have plenty of downside before this ‘pain’ is over…

Source: Bloomberg

Overnight gains, triggered at the European market open, were erased ahead of the open as Taiwan-China news hit and then things escalated quickly on the back of the ‘good news’ from JOLTS and Conference Board which is just more bad news for the bulls as this offered no ‘outs’ for The Fed… Small Caps were the ugliest horse in the glue factory, closely followed by Nasdaq…

Bear in mind that liquidity is abysmal with the lowest volume days of the year…

US equities have given back more than half of their gains off the mid-June lows…

The Nasdaq is down 10% from the mid-August highs now…

And Nasdaq is down over 6% from the start of Powell’s speech…

All the US majors broke below critical technical support levels today (S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all below their 50DMA, and Russell 2000 below its 100DMA)…

The credit markets are beginning to flash red again as ‘triple-hooks’ CCC debt spreads breach 1000bps once again

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with most of the curve higher in yields but the long-end managing modest gains (2Y +4bps, 30Y -2bps). Since Powell’s speech, the long-bond yield is down over 2bps, while the belly is underporfoming (5Y +12bps)

Source: Bloomberg

US 2Y Yields jumped to their highest since Nov 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) flattened notably, pushing back to its most inverted since early August…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed to hold on to modest gains today after some weakness during Europe’s early hours…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos tanked with Bitcoin breaking bad, back below $20,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index had one of its worst days of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tumbled, erasing yesterday’s gains…

Crude prices crashed as Iraq confirmed no output impacts from its internal conflicts but chatter is that the futures market was very thing today, exaggerating the move dramatically…

Finally, the so-called “Rule of 20” – which combines CPI with the S&P’s P/E ratio – suggests the market has a lot further to fall (or CPI does) before any sense of normality resumes…

Source: Bloomberg

Pain is Coming!

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING

Markets Are Turmoiling

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 10:56 AM

A combination of macro reports and geopolitical headlines – along with a renewed anxiety over The Fed’s reaction function – has sparked serious turmoil in what are already super-illiquid markets this morning.

Fed rate-hike expectations have spiked this morning with Dec 2022 now at 3.75% – its highest during the cycle…

All the overnight gains in stocks are gone…

The Nasdaq is now down over 6% since Powell’s speech began…

The selling pressure has been relentless…

All the US majors have tumbled to or broken below critical technical support levels….

…And if you think it’s over… it’s not yet…

Initial safe-haven flows from the Taiwan-China troubles were quickly wiped away by ‘good’ news macro data which is now very much bad news for bonds and stocks in a hawkish-Powell world…

The dollar spiked on the hawkish-encouraging data (and again safe-haven flows)…

Bitcoin was smashed back below $20,000…

Gold is also losing steam…

And oil is getting clubbed like a baby seal (presumably on Iraq output reassurances)…

This is the ‘pain’ that Powell is waiting for.

ii) USA DATA//

USA home price growth slowed in June

(zerohedge)

US Home Price Growth Slowed In June – Weakest In 13 Months

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 09:06 AM

US home price growth slowed in June (the latest data released from S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller). The headline national average saw home prices rise 17.96% YoY (well below the +19.90% YoY seen in May) and the 20-City Composite home price index rose 18.65% YoY, well below the 19.20% YoY expected and May’s +20.51% surge…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the weakest annual price growth since May 2021.

“It’s important to bear in mind that deceleration and decline are two entirely different things, and that prices are still rising at a robust clip,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“June’s growth rates for all three composites are at or above the 95th percentile of historical experience.”

Tampa, Miami, Dallas reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed but all major cities have seen price growth peak (with West Coast prices fading fastest)…

Notably US home affordability just reached new record lows (below the trough in July 2006) but as the chart below shows, the average home price in the US is now 65% higher than at that previous trough of affordability…

Source: Bloomberg

And with rates higher and sentiment lower since this ancient June data, this could well be the epicenter of Powell’s “pain”…

end

JOLTS…

Data is badly fudged..

Job Openings Unexpectedly Surge To Two For Every Unemployed Worker, Crashing Fed’s Plans To Nuke The Job Market

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 10:41 AM

This was not supposed to happen.

After three months of rapidly declining job openings, which however were not declining fast enough to put a dent in surging wages or to tighten the labor force to a point where the unemployment rate jumps and forces the Fed to halt or reverse its rate hikes, moments ago the BLS reported that in July, contrary to the hopes and expectations of virtually everyone from the Fed to the Biden admin, the number of job openings actually jumped from 10.7 million (since revised to 11.04 million) to north of 11.2 million, smashing expectations of 10.375 million by over 800,000!

While job openings increase, the number of unemployed workers continued to decline, and in July it shrank to 5.670, the lowest since before the Covid pandemic. It means that there are now an almost record 5.569 more job openings than unemployed workers…

… or roughly 2 openings for every unemployed person.

In retrospect, perhaps the jump in openings should not have been a big surprise as it coincided with the month in which the BLS reported a surge in hiring when a whopping 528K jobs were added (according to the Establishment Survey if not Household Survey) even if it was largely the result of record multiple jobholders (as discussed previously).

Bizarrely, while job openings unexpectedly jumped indicating continued labor market strength, the number of actual hires shrank again, and dropped to the lowest level since August 2021! As shown in the chart below, there is a notable divergence emerging between the 12 month job change and the number of hires – 2 series which traditionally follow each other with an almost 1.000 correlation.

It wasn’t just hires which came in weak: the number of quits dropped to 4.179MM from 4.237MM, the lowest print since October 2021, as far fewer workers had the guts to quit their job in hopes of getting a better paying alternative.

Bottom line: after three months of much needed drops in job openings, July saw a bizarre, unexplained reversal, one which pushed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers near the highest on record. Meanwhile, even as job openings increased, both Hires and Quits continued to deteriorate, extending the ongoing weakness in the labor market. Long story short, this is not the first time the DOL was forced to manipulate data – we caught them several years ago in a gaping disconnected between data series one which they were forced to subsequently admit was a mistake – and we expect that the BLS will do the same and completely revise both its JOLTS and labor market data once the political pressure to make the labor market appear stronger than it is, fades away.  Translation: expect normalcy to return after the midterms.

END

iii)USA economic commentaries

American drivers go deeper into debt as inflation pushes car loans to record highs

(Athrappully/EpochTimes)

American Drivers Go Deeper Into Debt As Inflation Pushes Car Loans To Record Highs

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As vehicle prices rise amid inflationary pressure, Americans buying new cars are taking on higher loans and pushing themselves deeper into debt, according to credit-monitoring company Experian.

Both the average loan amount and monthly payments for new and used cars have risen over the recent quarters, the firm said in an Aug. 25 news release. In second quarter 2022, the average loan amount for a new vehicle rose 13.21 percent year over year, to $40,290. During this period, monthly payments rose from $582 to $667, an increase of 14.6 percent.

For used vehicles, average loans jumped 18.66 percent, to $28,534, while the average monthly payment rose from $440 to $515.

Experian also found that consumers were shifting back to used vehicles, accounting for 61.78 percent of all vehicle financing during second quarter 2022, which is up from 58.48 percent during the year-ago period.

“Between the inventory shortage and rising vehicle costs, consumers are looking to make the most cost-effective decision, which is often a used vehicle,” said Melinda Zabritski, Experian’s senior director of automotive financial solutions.

“The benefit of higher vehicle values is that consumers are able to get more for their trade-ins, which can help offset the increased cost of their next vehicle.”

According to market research firm J.D. Power, the average transaction price for a new vehicle is expected to hit a record high of $46,259 in August, up 11.5 percent from a year back.

The 12-month Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, registered an 8.5 percent increase in July, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices of new vehicles rose by 10.4 percent. while used cars and trucks saw prices jump by 6.6 percent.

Rising Auto Loans, Slowing Sales

The jump in average car loan amounts and monthly payments are happening amid an increase in auto loans. According to an Aug. 2 report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data, household auto loans in Q2 rose by $33 billion to $199 billion, continuing an upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011.

Read more here…

end

A good read.

(Sharma/Financial Times)

“Don’t Be Fooled By Recent Strength… A Post-Dollar World Is Coming”

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Ruchir Sharma, op-ed via The Financial Times,

The currency may look strong but its weaknesses are mounting…

This month, as the dollar surged to levels last seen nearly 20 years ago, analysts invoked the old Tina (there is no alternative) argument to predict more gains ahead for the mighty greenback.

What happened two decades ago suggests the dollar is closer to peaking than rallying further. Even as US stocks fell in the dotcom bust, the dollar continued rising, before entering a decline that started in 2002 and lasted six years. A similar turning point may be near. And this time, the US currency’s decline could last even longer.

Adjusted for inflation or not, the value of the dollar against other major currencies is now 20 per cent above its long-term trend, and above the peak reached in 2001. Since the 1970s, the typical upswing in a dollar cycle has lasted about seven years; the current upswing is in its 11th year. Moreover, fundamental imbalances bode ill for the dollar.

When a current account deficit runs persistently above 5 per cent of gross domestic product, it is a reliable signal of financial trouble to come. That is most true in developed countries, where these episodes are rare, and concentrated in crisis-prone nations such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The US current account deficit is now close to that 5 per cent threshold, which it has broken only once since 1960. That was during the dollar’s downswing after 2001.

Nations see their currencies weaken when the rest of the world no longer trusts that they can pay their bills. The US currently owes the world a net $18tn, or 73 per cent of US GDP, far beyond the 50 per cent threshold that has often foretold past currency crises.

Finally, investors tend to move away from the dollar when the US economy is slowing relative to the rest of the world. In recent years, the US has been growing significantly faster than the median rate for other developed economies, but it is poised to grow slower than its peers in coming years.

If the dollar is close to entering a downswing, the question is whether that period lasts long enough, and goes deep enough, to threaten its status as the world’s most trusted currency.

Since the 15th century, the last five global empires have issued the world’s reserve currency — the one most often used by other countries — for 94 years on average. The dollar has held reserve status for more than 100 years, so its reign is already older than most.

The dollar has been bolstered by the weaknesses of its rivals. The euro has been repeatedly undermined by financial crises, while the renminbi is heavily managed by an authoritarian regime. Nonetheless, alternatives are gaining ground.

Beyond the Big Four currencies — of the US, Europe, Japan and the UK — lies the category of “other currencies” that includes the Canadian and Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the renminbi. They now account for 10 per cent of global reserves, up from 2 per cent in 2001.

Their gains, which accelerated during the pandemic, have come mainly at the expense of the US dollar.

The dollar share of foreign exchange reserves is currently at 59 per cent – the lowest since 1995.

Digital currencies may look battered now, but they remain a long-run alternative as well.

Meanwhile, the impact of US sanctions on Russia is demonstrating how much influence the US wields over a dollar-driven world, inspiring many countries to speed up their search for options. It’s possible that the next step is not towards a single reserve currency, but to currency blocs.

South-east Asia’s largest economies are increasingly settling payments to one another directly, avoiding the dollar. Malaysia and Singapore are among the countries making similar arrangements with China, which is also extending offers of renminbi support to nations in financial distress. Central banks from Asia to the Middle East are setting up bilateral currency swap lines, also with the intention of reducing dependence on the dollar.

Today, as in the dotcom era, the dollar appears to be benefiting from its safe-haven status, with most of the world’s markets selling off. But investors are not rushing to buy US assets. They are reducing their risk everywhere and holding the resulting cash in dollars.

This is not a vote of confidence in the US economy, and it is worth recalling that bullish analysts offered the same reason for buying tech stocks at their recent peak valuations: there is no alternative. That ended badly. Tina is never a viable investment strategy, especially not when the fundamentals are deteriorating.

So don’t be fooled by the strong dollar. The post-dollar world is coming.

*  *  *

The writer is chair of Rockefeller International

END

SWAMP STORIES

FBI Agent Accused Of Sabotaging Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation Escorted Out Of Building

MONDAY, AUG 29, 2022 – 05:20 PM

An FBI special agent at the heart of whistleblower allegations that he sabotaged the agency’s 2020 investigation of Hunter Biden has been escorted out of the bureau’s Washington DC field office, and was seen “exiting the bureau’s elevator last Friday escorted by two or three “headquarters-looking types,”” according to the Washington Times.

Timothy Thibault, who was in charge at the Washington field office until “relatively recently,” was on leave for at least a month following revelations over political statements he made while leading the public corruption unit.

Thibault, among other things, made anti-Trump statements over social media in 2020 while he was helping to lead the FBI’s probe of Hunter Biden, while his father, Joe Biden, was running for the White House. The FBI boss also retweeted a post by the Lincoln Project which called Trump “a psychologically broken, embittered and deeply unhappy man.”

During recent testimony before the Senate, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray dodged questions about Mr. Thibault and his social media posts. He called it “ongoing personnel matters.”

Mr. Thibault, according to the former official, was also known for pushing out unvaccinated agents from the FBI’s election squad that he suspected to be Trump supporters.

One of the former officials, who is also a whistleblower talking to the House Judiciary Committee, was placed on indefinite suspension last year by the bureau because he attended the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, that preceded a pro-Trump mob storming of the Capitol. The former officials said he never entered the Capitol. 

After resigning late last year, he claimed other FBI officials were “purged” for attending the rally on their own time and not on official FBI business. -Washington Times

In late May, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) sought records from the DOJ regarding Thibault’s work history following the accusations of political bias.

“Political bias should have no place at the FBI, and the effort to revive the FBI’s credibility can’t stop with his exit. We need accountability, which is why Congress must continue investigating and the inspector general must fully investigate as I’ve requested,” he told the Times in a statement.

Meanwhile, several FBI whistleblowers told Grassley earlier this year that agents investigating Hunter Biden “opened an assessment which was used by an FBI headquarters team to improperly discredit negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation and caused investigative activity to cease,” adding that his office received “a significant number of protected communications from highly credible whistleblowers” regarding the investigation.

Grassley added that “verified and verifiable derogatory information on Hunter Biden was falsely labeled as disinformation,” according to the Washington Examiner.

FBI supervisory intelligence agent Brian Auten opened in August 2020 the assessment that was later used by the agency, according to the disclosures. One of the whistleblowers claimed the FBI assistant special agent in charge of the Washington field office, Timothy Thibault, shut down a line of inquiry into Hunter Biden in October 2020 despite some of the details being known to be true at the time.

A whistleblower also said Thibault “ordered closed” an “avenue of additional derogatory Hunter Biden reporting,” according to Grassley, even though “all of the reporting was either verified or verifiable via criminal search warrants.” The senator said Thibault “ordered the matter closed without providing a valid reason as required” and that FBI officials “subsequently attempted to improperly mark the matter in FBI systems so that it could not be opened in the future,” according to the disclosures.

The whistleblowers say investigators from FBI headquarters were “in communication with FBI agents responsible for the Hunter Biden information targeted by Mr. Auten’s assessment,” and that their findings on whether the claims were in fact disinformation were placed “in a restricted access sub-file” in September 2020, according to Grassley, who added that the disclosures “appear to indicate that there was a scheme in place among certain FBI officials to undermine derogatory information connected to Hunter Biden by falsely suggesting it was disinformation.

Amid the revelations that the FBI told Facebook to quash the Hunter Biden laptop story – a clear case of election interference, Trump called for an “immediate” redo of the 2020 election,

Last week, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed that the FBI told them to be on the lookout for “Russian propaganda.”

“Basically, the background here is the FBI, I think, basically came to us- some folks on our team and was like, ‘Hey, just so you know, like, you should be on high alert…  We thought that there was a lot of Russian propaganda in the 2016 election. We have it on notice that, basically, there’s about to be some kind of dump of that’s similar to that. So just be vigilant,” Zuckerberg told Rogan.

As a reminderHunter Biden abandoned his laptop at a Wilmington, Delaware repair shop on April 12, 2019. The owner, John Paul Mac Isaac, walked into the Albuquerque FBI office, where he explained what he had, but was rebuffed by the FBI. He was told basically, get lost. This was mid-September 2019.

Two months passed and then, out of the blue, the FBI contacted John Paul Mac Issac. Two FBI agents from the Wilmington FBI office–Joshua Williams and Mike Dzielak–came to John Paul’s business. He offered immediately to give them the hard drive, no strings attached. Agents Williams and Dzielak declined to take the device.

Eight months later, Isaac provided a copy to then-President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who provided a copy of the hard drive to The Post.

END

‘Sanctuary City’ NYC Buckles As Migrant Hotel, Intake Center Plans Fall Apart

TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 – 11:23 AM

While New York City signaled plenty of virtue over their “sanctuary city” status, the Big Apple failed to put their money where their mouth is when it comes to actual resources, and are currently drowning amid a surge in illegal immigrants after Texas began sending busloads of border crossers.

Now, the Department of Homeless Services tells the NY Post that it’s abandoned a plan to operate an intake and processing center for the new arrivals, alongside a 600-room shelter at the ROW NYC hotel on 8th Ave. in Midtown – a yet-to-open facility that was supposed to be up and running two weeks ago.

DHS also admitted that it has yet to select and rent any of the 5,000 hotel rooms the agency said it is seeking to house migrants across the city.

Instead, officials are continuing to commingle migrants with New Yorkers in the city’s existing shelter system — which now includes 15 “emergency” hotel facilities to also help handle a summer population surge, according to the DSS on Friday.

City Hall has refused to say how much the city is spending on housing migrants in the homeless-system hotels, but a Post analysis found the cost could surpass $300 million. -NY Post

“We were already facing a crisis of homelessness in New York City when the flow of these migrant families started in earnest,” said homeless rights advocacy lawyer, Josh Goldfein with Legal Aid.

“We’ve always had asylum seekers in the New York City shelter system, so that is not new. But obviously, the volume increased.”

North of 6,000 migrants have sought shelter in New York City since May, many of whom were bused in by Tex. Gov. Greg Abbott.

The influx of migrants led to NYC Mayor Eric Adams appealing to the White House for assistance – financial and otherwise – a call which has gone unanswered. According to an official with knowledge of the city’s efforts, Adams’ admin has also reached out to the US Conference of Mayors for help.

We assume he was met with extra-quiet crickets.

““If [Adams] can’t find a place for [the migrants] to go, it looks like he can’t manage. Throw it on top of the crime pile, and it looks like he can’t control the city,” political consultant Hank Sheinkopf told the Post on Sunday.

“If Adams has not resolved this by the late fall, he will have a big problem. A failure to resolve this as the weather changes is going to be a real problem for the mayor,” he added.

“It’s a public-relations disaster, and there’s no indication that Abbott is going to stop sending people here.”

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 30, 2022 Issue 6833Independent View of the News
@JavierBlas: German power for next year broke through the €1,000 per MWh level for the first time as the European energy crisis intensifies  https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1564172574900326400
    More state support would be needed in the next 24-48 hours for European utilities to stay solvent.  The calls for suspending the forward electricity market are growing a lot louder… As expected, the European utilities are calling on governments for bailouts.  Uniper of Germany asks for an additional €4 billion (on top of the €9 billion it got recently).  It says it’s “accumulating cash losses of well over €100 million per day.”
 
Uniper fully uses existing credit facility and applies for extension of KfW credit line
Uniper today drew down EUR 2 billion under its existing credit facility with the KfW banking group, thereby fully using the credit facility of EUR 9 billion. Furthermore, Uniper has requested an extension of the KfW credit facility by additional EUR 4 billion. This is intended to secure the company’s short-term liquidity….  https://www.uniper.energy/news/uniper-fully-uses-existing-credit-facility-and-applies-for-extension-of-kfw-credit-line
 
UK energy bills to rise by 80% in October as regulator announces hike
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/26/uk-energy-bills-to-rise-by-80percent-in-october-as-regulator-announces-hike.html
 
@endless_frank: I don’t think most Americans realize how dire the situation is in Europe. If your utility bill went from $250/month to $2500, discretionary spending would get obliterated.  The EU makes up 25% of SP earnings. Corporate earnings will fall off a cliff as the weather cools.
 
Europe’s gas crisis could last several winters, Shell CEO says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-gas-crisis-could-last-several-winters-shell-ceo-says-2022-08-29/
 
Bonds got slammed on Monday.  The US 2-year hit 3.452%, the highest rate since November 2007.
 
ESUs declined sharply during early Asian trading and hit the session low of 4006.75 at 21:36 ET.  ESUs then rallied smartly but remained solidly negative until the Asian close.  ESUs and stocks then rallied sharply into the European open.  The rally ended at 3:02 ET.  It took only 2 minutes for the wise guys that bought for the rally into and on the European open to pump & dump into misguided traders.
 
ESUs quickly sank 22 handles.  However, conditioned buyers were not deterred – plus, it’s time to manipulate stuff higher to game August performance, which is dismal.  So, ESUs jumped 19 handles from 3:23 ET to 3:37 ET.  Alas, sellers returned; ESUs and stocks sank until the US repo market’s 7 ET open.
 
US traders eagerly wanted to get long stuff for the expected Monday rally.  ESUs soared to a session high of 4050.50 at 10:20 ET.  Then, fundamental sellers and traders spooked by the ugly bond market, unloaded ESUs and equities.  ESUs sank to 4017.00 at 10:55 ET.
 
We all know what happened next.  The usual suspects then manipulated stuff higher for the European close.  The rally persisted until ESUs hit a new high of 4064.00 at 13:45 ET.  After an A-B-C decline, the last-hour upward manipulation commenced; it ended within 4 minutes.  ESUs and stocks then had an A-B-C decline the persisted into the close.  ESUs sank 32 handles during the final hour because it was mostly traders that bought stuff, and there were few organic buyers to absorb their positions.
 
USUs hit a daily low of 136 8/32 at 10:37 ET.  After a moderate rebound, they rolled over into the European close.  Thereafter, USUs traded in a very tight range until the close.
 
Energy commodities soared on Monday on this: Iraq Clashes Leave 12 Dead After Powerful Cleric Says He Is Leaving Politics (NYT) – Muqtada al-Sadr’s move thrust the country, which has gone months without a new government, deeper into crisis. Security forces opened fire on protesters supporting him in Baghdad… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/world/middleeast/iraq-sadr-politics.html
 
@bennyjohnson: U.S. Embassy employees being evacuated from the roof in Baghdad. This is the new normal under Biden.   https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1564265453689634817
 
Deadly clashes in Baghdad as Al Sadr supporters storm state institutions – The US government on Monday evening denied rumours that it would evacuate its embassy, also located in the area…
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iraq/2022/08/29/iraqi-cleric-al-sadr-announces-political-resignation-and-closure-of-offices/
 
@HeshmatAlavi: Basra, S Iraq – Locals have reportedly taken control over the Majnun oil fields located north of this city. Basra is Iraq’s second largest city and home to the country’s main oil port into the Persian Gulf.
 
Iran starts enriching uranium with advanced IR-6 machines underground at Natanz
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-starts-enriching-uranium-with-advanced-ir-6-machines-underground-natanz-2022-08-29/
 
Iran’s president threatens to DESTROY Israel if the Jewish state carries out military strikes on Tehran’s nuclear program – At his first news conference, Raisi famously simply said ‘no’ when asked if he would meet with President Joe Biden.  Asked again on Monday… Raisi stuck to his earlier answer. ‘There is no benefit for a meeting between us and him,’ the president said…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11157545/Irans-president-threatens-DESTROY-Israel-carries-strikes-Tehrans-nuclear-program.html
 
The ramifications of The Big Guy’s Afghanistan debacle are starting to appear.
 
Former CENTCOM chief says Biden was told that Afghanistan would fall if U.S. pulled out
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/28/former-centcom-chief-gen-mckenzie-says-biden-told-/
 
If WTI Oil gets back above $100, it could spark aggressive buying on the notion of an upside breakout after a one-month decline and ensuing one-month consolidation. 
 
What happens when Biden’s energy bribes run out?
As soon as the SPR oil stops flowing to the market, the prices will rise substantially. Brent Futures predicts that oil will be back up to 130 dollars.  But by design, that won’t happen until after the election…
    The SPR will be massively depleted, and the government will have to pay hugely inflated crude oil prices to begin refilling it… The amazing part is that the Biden administration is unapologetically doing all of this right out in the open, trusting that the media will largely ignore the story
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/08/29/what-happens-when-bidens-energy-bribes-run-out-n492995
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Determined buying saved stocks despite more negative fundamental news
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds got crushed; energy commodities soared; WIT Oil hit $97.37, +$4.33
Late tumble for ESUs because day traders got caught being too long
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is oil about to begin a new up leg that would spoil Biden’s SPR election scheme?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4055
Previous session High/Low4062.99; 4017.42
 
WSJ: Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern
The level of one type of combat rounds in storage is ‘uncomfortably low,’ says a defense official
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188
 
@burackbobby_: Here’s Aaron Rodgers telling Joe Rogan that the NFL sent some Fauci stooge to each team to threaten and pressure players into getting the Covid-19 vaccine as if it prevented the virus.
https://twitter.com/burackbobby_/status/1563764991718838272
 
@JonathanTurley: Putting the merits aside, the plan to waive up to $1 trillion without congressional approval is dangerous and unconstitutional. Democrats cheering this plan in Congress are celebrating their own institutional obsolescence.  These members are applauding a president waiving a trillion dollars unilaterally because he knew that he could not get such a massive waiver from Congress. For those who claim to be fighting for our constitutional system and democracy, this may be a good place to start.
 
@Reuters: Ford said it will cut a total of 3,000 salaried and contract jobs, mostly in North America and India, as it restructures to catch up with Tesla in the race to develop software-driven electric vehicles
(How can this be?  EV credits were supposed to create auto jobs!) https://reut.rs/3PMy2Vk
 
Latest COVID booster shots will be released before human testing is complete https://trib.al/LXXJGeR
 
FBI put the Hunter Biden story right in Facebook’s lap
How did the FBI know about our story weeks before it was published, maybe even before we were told about the laptop by Rudy Giuliani’s lawyer Bob Costello?… We know the FBI spied on the former mayor’s cloud for two years, from May, 2019, a month after he began working as then president Donald Trump’s personal attorney …
     So the FBI had access to all Giuliani’s emails and iMessages for two years. Were they spying on Giuliani in order to spy on Trump?…
    As we know now from whistleblowers who came forward to Sen. Chuck Grassley, the FBI obstructed its own investigation of the laptop. Timothy Thibault, an FBI assistant special agent in charge at the Washington field office, has been on leave since Grassley started raising concerns about his suppression of negative information about Hunter before the 2020 election…
https://nypost.com/2022/08/28/fbi-put-the-hunter-biden-story-right-in-facebooks-lap/
 
WSJ’s Fed Guy @NickTimiraos: (Minneapolis Fed Pres) Neel Kashkari on Friday’s market selloff: “I was actually happy to see how Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was received. People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”
 
Today – Despite all the fundamental negatives, the usual suspects eagerly bought dips on Monday.
Someone was determined to boost equities on Monday.  Due to the last-hour decline, the effort to save stocks had marginal success.  Sometime today, the usual suspects will commence the manipulation to game August performance.  ESUs hit +12.00 at 19:45 ET; they are -2.50 at 20:42 ET.
 
It is time to closely monitor oil again.  If oil is ascending anew, it will not only vex Team Biden and Dems with November drawing near, but it could also induce the Fed to hike rates by 75bps in September.  Plus, Mr. Bond, who was unhappy on Monday, would be very unhappy if oil rallied anew.
 
If stocks are soft in the morning or at midday, be alert for an afternoon or last hour rally as part of the effort to boost August performance.
 
Expected economic data: June FJFA House Price Index 0.85 m/m; June S&P CoreLogic 20-City house prices 0.9% m/m, 19.2% y/y; Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence 97.7; July JOLTS Job Openings 10.475m; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8 ET, NY Fed Pre Williams 11 ET on US economy
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3991; 100-day MA: 4079; 150-day MA: 4190; 200-day MA: 4310
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,002; 100-day MA: 32,541; 150-day MA: 33,140; 200-day MA: 33,795
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3877.02 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4257.90 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4141.93 triggers a buy signal
 
FBI special agent who opened Trump investigation reportedly escorted out of Bureau headquarters
Mr. Thibault was seen exiting the bureau’s elevator last Friday escorted by two or three “headquarters-looking types.‘”… amid whistleblower allegations that he showed political bias in his handling of politically sensitive investigations… (DoJ & FBI brass have identified their ‘fall guy’!)
    Whistleblowers alleged that Thibault concealed the partisan nature of evidence from FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland to secure their approval to open an investigation into former President Donald Trump. That investigation culminated in the FBI’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month…
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-special-agent-who-opened-trump-investigation-reportedly-escorted
 
@mirandadevine: FBI DC agent Timothy Thibault who buried LaptopFromHell leaves FBI. Accused also of purging unvaxxed staff he suspected of Trumpism. Also purged anyone who attended the J6 Trump rally. This is why Dems love J6 and vax mandates. Assists the purge.
    This way he avoids being questioned by the Inspector General, really the only accountability mechanism for the FBI. He probably leaves with full pension and will be warmly embraced by corporates
 
Thibault oversaw election fraud in 2020!  You cannot make this up!
https://twitter.com/FBIPortland/status/1314268069506629633
 
DOJ Says Some Records Seized at Mar-a-Lago May Be Privileged – BBG
 
Redacted Mar-A-Lago Affidavit Confirms Biden’s DOJ Fished for a Crime to Pin on Trump
The Department of Justice used a bait-and-switch tactic to justify the FBI’s unprecedented raid on former President Donald Trump’s home… What the DOJ did here, then, was this: It highlighted that the documents retrieved by the NARA contained “classification markings” and then used the FBI agent’s expertise to establish that documents that receive a classification marking typically include “national defense information.” That Trump declassified (or may have declassified) the documents is irrelevant under this analysis because the fact that they were ever classified would mean they likely qualified as “national defense information.”…
    In other words, the DOJ bent the Espionage Act to fit the facts of Trump’s possession of documents at Mar-a-Lago. The Biden administration couldn’t target Trump for mishandling classified material both because he declassified it and because the statute that criminalizes such mishandling doesn’t reach a president or a former president. So instead, they tried to find a crime to get the man…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/08/29/redacted-mar-a-lago-affidavit-confirms-bidens-doj-fished-for-a-crime-to-pin-on-trump/
 
A Review of the Big Picture and Stakeholder Interests Within FBI Affidavit Justifying Raid on Trump – The Last Refuge… What are the DOJ and FBI so desperate to retrieve?
There are two sets of documents that intermingle and are directly related. First, documents that highlight the activity of Hillary Clinton’s team in creating the false Trump-Russia conspiracy theory (2015/2016).  Second, documents that highlight the activity of government officials targeting Donald Trump within the same timeframe (Crossfire Hurricane), that continued into 2017, 2018 and 2019 (Robert Mueller).  Think of the two sets of documents as evidence against two teams working in synergy.  Team one (Clinton) was outside government. Team two (DOJ/FBI) was inside government.  The documents pertain to both groups but are also divided.  That helps to explain the wording of the memo above.  The documentary evidence against the outside group (Clinton et al) would also involve government documented evidence as the DOJ/FBI inside group interacted with them.  Notes from interviews, materials provided, FBI 302 summaries of interviews, etc.
     We can extract a lot of information on the first sets of evidence from the lawsuit filed by President Trump in March of this year, mostly against the outside actors. [LINK HERE]
    The lawsuit was filed against specific persons and most of those persons were interviewed by the FBI as part of the originating investigation.  Within the subjects of the lawsuit we find names and groups including: Hillary Clinton, Hillary for America Campaign Committee, DNC, DNC Services Corp, Perkins Coie, Michael Sussmann, Marc Elias, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Charles Dolan, Jake Sullivan, John Podesta, Robby Mook, Phillipe Reines as well as Fusion GPS, Glenn Simpson, Peter Fritsch, Nellie Ohr, Bruce Ohr, Orbis Business Intelligence, Christopher Steele, Igor Danchenko, Neustar Inc., Rodney Joffe, James Comey Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Kevin Clinesmith and Andrew McCabe… https://t.co/9er7grZrii
 
@JonathanTurley: Biden just gave MSNBC’s Jeremy Bash a top national security post despite his falsely claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop was “Russian disinformation.” This follows the appointment of Jake Sullivan, a critical player in spreading the false Alfa Bank story.
 
@DineshDSouza: Mussolini’s famous definition of fascism: “Everything in the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state.” At its core fascism is about centralized state power. Now ask yourself: Does this sound more like the MAGA Republicans or the Biden Democrats? Yes, exactly!
 
Lindsey Graham warns of ‘riots in the streets’ if Trump is prosecuted
There is a double standard when it comes to Trump. What happened with Hunter Biden is that the FBI weighed in to make sure the story didn’t break before the 2020 election. We now have whistleblowers at the FBI telling Sen. [Chuck] Grassley that they were told to slow down and back off Hunter Biden. And I’ll say this, if there is a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified information after the Clinton debacle … there will be riots in the street.”… https://trib.al/2G7G28L
 
@DiamondandSilk: WOW…. This Is Hilarious. Watch This (Biden: ‘No one can steal elections again!)
https://twitter.com/DiamondandSilk/status/1563935019260862465
 
Trump demands ‘rightful’ 2020 winner declared or new vote after FBI-Facebook Biden laptop coverup https://trib.al/CNmhFEz
 
Joe Biden’s Own Family Questions His Mental Fitness, Tucker Carlson Says
“I know a bunch of members of his family and a couple of them very well. And I knew for a fact that certain members of the family were very concerned about his cognitive ability. They didn’t expect him to get the nomination. Nobody did. And he got it and they were freaked out about it. That’s…I’m not speculating. I know that for a fact. So I knew that the family believed he was in cognitive decline. So there’s that and that’s news. That’s news,” the Fox News host said…
https://conservativebrief.com/biden-family-66016/
 
@RealMacReport: Fox’s Doocy: “Somebody unvaccinated legally comes over on a plane, you say that’s not okay. Somebody illegally walks into Texas or Arizona unvaccinated, they’re allowed to stay?”
(WH Press Sec) KJP: “But that’s not how it works.” Doocy: “That exactly what’s happening.”
https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1564346478100873221
 
@GOPChairwoman: One year ago today, Biden repeatedly looked at his watch during the dignified transfer of American heroes killed during his withdrawal.  He has never apologized.
https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1564369341419773952
https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1564270939227000832
 
The Strangest Thing About ‘Semi-Fascist’ Trump
Of the last three presidents, Trump was either the most indifferent or the most obstructed when it came to using government agencies for his own partisan political advantages or to neuter his enemies.
https://amgreatness.com/2022/08/28/the-strangest-thing-about-semi-fascist-trump/
 
@RNCResearch: KAMALA HARRIS: “We have people who have been working for decades to do the work that has been about America’s leadership in terms of space exploration, and today is very much on that path about showing the great work that happens…how exciting is that?
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1564279039967232000
 
Kamala Harris’ bizarre response when asked who is ‘footing the bill’ for student loans: VP dodges question and instead attacks Republicans for voting for a ‘tax cut for the richest Americans’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11157963/Kamala-Harris-bizarre-response-asked-footing-bill-student-loans.html
 
Chicago crime crisis: Suspect brazenly guns down woman outside police station, fires into building
https://www.foxnews.com/us/chicago-crime-crisis-suspect-brazenly-guns-down-woman-outside-police-station-fires-building
 
Harrison Ford frequent flier on private jets despite climate change activism
Ford said people must ‘cry out for justice’ during a climate conference last year
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harrison-ford-frequent-flier-private-jets-despite-climate-change-activism

 

Greg Hunter..

end

See you TOMORROW

A little heads up:

I will not be providing a full commentary on Wednesday

but I will be providing preliminary numbers and finalize them late at night

Harvey

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