SEPT 21//FED HIKES RATES BY .75% BUT EXTENDS DOTS OUTWARD TO 4.6%//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.70 TO $1667.75//SILVER CLOSED UP 33 CENTS TO $19.50//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $2.75 TO $918.40//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $23.55 TO $2123.75//MATHEW PIEPENBERG: A MUST READ//PUTIN CALLS UP 300,000 RESERVES IN HIS BATTLE WITH THE WEST (AND UKRAINE)//EUROPE’S BATTLE WITH HIGHER ENERGY COSTS//COVID UPDATES// DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//USA EXISTING HOUSING STARTS FALLS AGAIN SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DOWNGRADE FROM ATLANTA FED//QUIETLY FACEBOOK AND GOOGLE SHED EMPLOYEES/THE USA 2 YR INTEREST RATE TOPS 4%//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 52 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 437 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 20 661 C JP MORGAN 805 709 C BARCLAYS 1651 737 C ADVANTAGE 9 6 800 C MAREX SPEC 10 880 H CITIGROUP 349
total notices so far: 7775 contracts for 777,500 oz (24.105 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 26 NOTICES FILED FOR 130,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 6488 : for 32,440,000 oz
END
Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX
With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $4.70
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.33
AT THE SLV// ://GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: STRANGE ADEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILION OZ INTO THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 482.115 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 578 CONTRACTS TO 132,107. AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.18) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS BUT WE DID HAVE A STRONG SILVER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF OF 524 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE SPECS ARE FLEEING AS FAST AS THEIR LITTLE FEET WILL CARRY THEM.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -29
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 days, total 11,757 contracts: 58.785 million oz OR 4.190 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (839 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 58.785 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 58.785 MILLION OZ///
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 578 WITH OUR $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 25 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 553 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.765MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL ARE BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.
WE HAD 26 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 130,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1844 CONTRACTS TO 469,393 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED+ 3440 CONTRACTS.
.
THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $6.65//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 176,500 OZ //NEW STANDING 24.951 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $6.65 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2512 OI CONTRACTS 7.8133 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 668 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 469,393
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2512 CONTRACTS WITH 1844 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 668 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2512 CONTRACTS OR 7.8133 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (668) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1844): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2512 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE. JUMP OF 176,500 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
35,359 CONTRACTS OR 3,535,900 OZ OR 109.98 TONNES 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2525 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 109.98 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 109.98/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 109.98 TONNES (SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 578 CONTRACT OI TO 132,136 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 25 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 25 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 25 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 578 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 25 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 553 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.765 MILLION OZ
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.23 PTS OR 0.17% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.60 PTS OR 1.79% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 375.29 PTS OR 1.36% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.55% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0478//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0540// /Oil UP TO 85.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1844 CONTRACTS TO 469,393 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $6.65 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (668 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 668 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :668 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 668 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 2512 CONTRACTS IN THAT 668 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1844 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $6.65. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (24.951),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 24.951 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $6.65) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2512 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON THEIR POSITIONS WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN OF 2512 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (24.951 TONNES)…
WE HAD 3440 CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 930 CONTRACTS OR 93000 OZ OR 2.892 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 147,721/// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 156,593/ poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 21
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7775 notices 777,500 OZ 24.105 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
total dealer deposit 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits nil oz
1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of JPMorgan: 120,565.141 oz
total: 120.565.141 oz
total in tonnes: 3.75 tonnes
Adjustments: 1
Malca/dealer to customer: 98,574.966 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.
For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 1917 contracts having GAINED 1420 contracts .
We had 345 notices filed on TUESDAY so we gained a whopping 1765 contracts or an additional 176,500 oz
will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.
October LOST 30 contracts REMAINING AT 42,943. Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It WILL change!! (Look for a very unusually large Oct. delivery month.)
November LOST 16 contracts to stand at 303
December lost 100 contracts DOWN to 378,624
We had 1670 notice(s) filed today for 167,000 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1670 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 805 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7775) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 1917 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1675 x 100 oz per contract equals 802,200 OZ OR 24.951 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices filed so far (7775) x 100 oz+ (1917) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1670} x 100 oz} which equals 802,200 oz standing OR 24.951 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 24.951 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)
WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6488 x 5,000 oz = 32,440,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(150) and the number of notices served upon today 26 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,488 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (150) – number of notices served upon today (26) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,060,000 oz. .
We have an inventory of 44.240 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.060 MILLION OZ represents 74.79% of that category of silver.
If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 38.57 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 44.20 million oz or 87.26% of that category of silver.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES
SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES
SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//
SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES
AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES
AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.20 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.94 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 995.97 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 952.16 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///
SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 369,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.482 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.106 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.113 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ/
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.152 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.219 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 482.115 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
Fed Rate-Hikes Will Add Trillions To National Debt
Federal Reserve rate hikes will add trillions to the national debt, according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The Fed delivered another 75-basis point rate-hike during its September FOMC meeting this afternoon and made it clear that rates will be ‘higher for longer’ to fight persistently high inflation. According to the Committee for a Responsible Budget (CFRB), rate hikes will add another $2.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
Every increase in interest rate raises the federal government’s interest expense. So far in fiscal 2022, the US Treasury has forked out $471 billion just to fund the government’s interest payments.
To put that number into context, at this point in fiscal 2021 the Treasury’s interest expense stood at $356 billion. That represents a 30% year-on-year increase. Interest expense ranks as the sixth largest budget expense category, about $250 billion below Medicare. If interest rates remain elevated or continue rising, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.)
According to the Congressional Budget Office, this is exactly what will happen. It projects interest payments will triple from nearly $400 billion in fiscal 2022 to $1.2 trillion in 2032. And it’s worse than that. The CBO made this estimate in May. Interest rates are already higher than those used in its analysis.
In a statement to Fox Business, the CFRB concedes that rate hikes are necessary in this inflationary environment. It places the onus on the federal government to get its spending under control.
Policymakers can help the Fed by limiting the need for rate hikes with fiscal policy that pushes inflation in the right direction. That means not enacting legislation and executive orders like student loan forgiveness that have ballooned deficits and only made demand pressures worse.”
Even with pandemic-era spending programs expiring, the federal government continues to spend about half-a-trillion dollars every single month. In August alone, the Biden administration blew through another $523.3 billion. This brought total spending for fiscal 2022 to just over $5.35 trillion.
A paper published by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank acknowledged that the central bank can’t slay inflation unless the US government gets its spending under control. In a nutshell, the authors argue that the Fed can’t control inflation alone. US government fiscal policy contributes to inflationary pressure and makes it impossible for the Fed to do its job.
Trend inflation is fully controlled by the monetary authority only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans. When the fiscal authority is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances, the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt. As a result, a large fiscal imbalance combined with a weakening fiscal credibility may lead trend inflation to drift away from the long-run target chosen by the monetary authority.”
This clearly isn’t in the cards.
“As interest rates rise and the nation’s debt grows, it will become even more expensive to borrow in the future. Congresses and presidents of both parties, over many years, have avoided making hard choices about our budget and failed to put it on a sustainable path. It is vital for lawmakers to take action on the growing debt to ensure a stable economic future,” the Peter Peterson Foundation said.
Interest expense isn’t the only problem the Fed’s inflation fight creates for the US government. Along with raising rates, the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet. That means it’s not buying Treasury bonds. The federal government needs the central bank to continue buying Treasuries in order to prop up the market and enable its borrowing. Without the Fed’s intervention in the bond market, prices will tank, driving interest rates on US debt even higher.
Something has to give.
The Fed can’t simultaneously fight inflation and prop up Uncle Sam’s spending spree. Either the government will have to cut spending or the Fed will have to keep creating money out of thin air in order to monetize the debt.
You can decide for yourself which scenario you find more likely.
END
2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz
Even a Weaponized Dollar Won’t Stop Gold’s Historical Turning Point
We have dedicated numerous articles and interviews addressing the dangerous strength of the USD on the heels of a deliberately hawkish Fed hiking rates into what is clearly a recession, official or otherwise.
Explaining the Inexplicable: Rising Rates into a Recession?
On the surface, such central bank tightening in the face of a tanking economy and increasingly volatile risk asset markets makes little sense, as a strong USD and higher interest expense (i.e., interest rate policy) crushes just about every asset class in its wake, from an empirically broken bond market and grotesquely over-valued stock market to the artificially repressed precious metals space.
So, why is the openly cornered Fed acting so openly at odds with the real world and the US economy after years of feeding it instant-liquidity at every “dip,” cough or market sniffle?
The Fake War on Inflation
The standard answer is to “fight” inflation (which the Fed’s own mouse-click money alone created).
But as we’ve also written and observed so many times, a Fed Funds Rate at 3%, 4% or even 5% is not only mathematically crippling to a nation which simply can’t afford such rates, it is equally impotent against a headline CPI print in the 8-9% range (and rising).
In short: Rate hikes won’t defeat money supply driven or supply-constraint driven inflation at all.
Thus, and again, what is the Fed really doing and thinking notwithstanding the official nonsense that makes the headlines or pours from their double-speaking lips?
A Weaponized Fed Running Out of Bullets
One answer: The Fed, like the SWIFT removals and FX reserve freezes, is just another weaponized tool against Russia and the seismic shifts (petrodollar, LBMA alternatives, mono-to-multi-currency trade agreements) resulting globally ever since the openly failed sanctions against Russia were commenced earlier this year.
To any who understand the origins, history and actual practices of the Federal Reserve, the notion that this cabal of private bankers is an “independent” entity is by now an open farce.
That is, the Fed is anything but “independent” and is not only a political fixture of the DC horizon, but rather a political hijacker of the American economy, markets and policy in ways the go far, way far, beyond its supposed “mandate” to simply manage U.S. inflation and employment.
It is my own strong belief that one of the primary motives behind the current rate policy to strengthen the USD has been to help the U.S. government break the financial back of Russia, which like all its prior policies/sanctions (based on the re-invigorated Russian currency, trade surpluses and multi-lateral trade agreements) is failing.
Toward this end, it is far more than likely that the Fed’s “weaponized” rate hiking will continue this week, much, frankly to the chagrin of a temporarily falling gold price.
What one has to ask however, is will this policy backfire as well (?), for it seems that this game of financial chicken with Putin is breaking the back of the US markets and economy (and its EU allies) with far greater effect.
Hubris Comes Before the Fall
I am once again reminded of the 2014 statement made by then U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, that Russia would run out of money long before the West ran out of energy.
Less than a decade after this classic example of American hubris was made, it seems Russia (as well as China, the BRICS and a string cite of emerging market economies) would beg to differ as the world shifts from a U.S.-led mono-currency system to an increasingly multi-national currency, trading and political new direction.
None of this, by the way, will be “orderly.”
Within the US markets and economy, conditions keep trending from bad to worse in every category– from risk assets, social division, and political impotence to the headline-making layoffs at Goldman Sachs, the tanking profits at FedEx and the destruction of the U.S. working class under the invisible tax of persistent rather than “transitory” inflation.
Meanwhile In Europe…
The price for blindly following the so-called “moral” lead of the US in its political and financial war against Putin (to save a less-than-moral thespian like Zelenskyy) is becoming increasingly high as the delusion that Putin has less leverage than the West becomes increasingly harder to sell, swallow or justify.
In addition to facing an extremely cold and expensive winter…
…the Europeans are seeing their currency at 20-year lows against an artificially inflated dollar.
But it’s not only Europe’s (or Japan or England’s) currency which is tanking, but their trade balances as well, which is otherwise atypical, as weakening currencies are supposed to improve rather than weaken export competitivity.
But not this time (see the EU’s trade balance, red line below).
At the End of the Day: Energy Matters
What the failed sanctions, policies and visions of the US-led West are now making abundantly clear is that energy matters, and folks, like it or not, Russia has more of it than the West as the US strangles rather than frees energy production in the US under a suicidal policy of a “green” new normal.
How the West Was Lost
In the immediate years after the Second World War, America’s greatest generation, as well as its dollar and Treasury bond, were undeniable leaders and influencers.
Those days, dollars, bonds and influencers, however, are no more.
But is it not comical to hear the IQ-challenged Governor of a failed state like California pushing electric cars as the new “solution” (?) — an example of open fantasy almost as comical as Christine Lagarde’s latest attempt to blame European inflation on climate change rather than her own bathroom mirror.
Having transitioned from a world of fair pricing, fair wages, gold-backed money, manageable bond obligations and strong exports, America has devolved into a modern feudalism of over-paid executives, a diminishing middle class, Wall Street socialism, a thin-air-backed dollar, a Fed-monetized (i.e., “zombie”) bond market, exported/outsourced labor and hence anemic productivity.
Once the world’s greatest producer and creditor, the US is now its greatest importer and debtor, and has not only exported US productivity to cheaper labor zip codes, but also exported its inflation, thereby destroying US credibility, trust and influence at the same rate America destroyed the inherent purchasing power of its so-called “strong dollar.”
The Real Cost of Only Bad Options Ahead
So, what can the Fed-directed/complicit U.S. do going forward in its pyric financial war against a changing, emerging East?
Well, it can send more debased money and scarce energy to its allies in the EU and Japan to avoid disaster there, which can only mean more not less inflation from sea to shining sea in the US.
Or, perhaps America’s allies in Brussels or Tokyo could cry “uncle” and reach a separate energy agreement with the Eastern nations who actually have the energy they need, an option which not only keeps the folks of the EU and Japan warmer, but improves their embarrassing trade imbalances (above) which resulted from the demands of Biden’s unofficial caretakers rather than the demands of realpolitik.
Of course, any such détente or separate arrangement would have to be paid for with printed euros and Yen, only adding to the global inflationary swamp our central bankers have created since the invention of the first mouse-click money printer.
As a final option, of course, Europe and Japan could simply stay the Western course and suffer an economic and currency crash (as the Yen hits 50-year lows) which would make 2020 or even 2008 seem like pleasant memories.
The West: Marching Toward a Breaking Point (and Pivot)
Without the benefit of a crystal ball or insider-influence within DC, Brussels or even Davos, one can only speculate rather than predict future events as dictated by current political charlatans.
Perhaps Japan and the EU will join the ever-increasing trend as well as crowd toward de-dollarization and reach a separate peace (i.e., trade arrangement) with the East on energy imports.
Equally likely, as well as mathematically essential, is that the Fed, after feigning concern for inflation (which they in fact needed to inflate away Uncle Sam’s bar tab), will pause and then pivot its failed QT policies by early 2023 and bring the USD and interest rates (via YCC) down to levels essential to combat a recession which they pretend doesn’t exist.
Despite all the fake, real, twisted, straight or bent words, facts and policies emerging today, the West in general and the US in particular cannot escape the natural laws of debt nor the hard realities (as well as consequences) of pretending that more debt, paid for with increasingly debased, mouse-clicked currencies, is a viable policy rather than an open comedy, as well as insult to the long-forgotten science of economics.
Once the reality of math supersedes the current DC policy of fluff, distraction and finger-pointing, the USD will come down, bond markets will be further “accommodated” and currencies will be increasingly debased.
At that looming turning point, of course, those holding gold will see its recent lows race toward record highs.
Why so certain?
Because, math, history and common sense have shown us (from the Ming Dynasty or 3rd century Rome, to 18th century France, 20th century Weimar and 21st century America) that all debt-soaked, decadent and fiscally wayward nations destroy their fiat currencies without exception, and the “modern” West will be no exception.
Not at all.
END
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Heading for a market crash. Read why
Craig Hemke: a must read…
(Craig Hemke)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: We’re still on ‘Crash Watch’
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-09-20 20:53Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke TF Metals Report via Sprott Money, Toronto Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Through September we have been on “Crash Watch” over concerns that a global equity market drop could lead to a liquidity-driven margin call across all asset classes.
The watch continues through this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and then into October. …
What are the conditions that prompted the watch? Here are just a few:
— The Fed draining liquidity via “quantitative tightening.
— Sharply higher interest rates in the United States and globally.
— Concerns that selling in the U.S. treasury market could accelerate uncontrollably.
— The soaring U.S. dollar index.
— Commodity collateral issues in China and elsewhere.
— Yen and yuan plunging versus the dollar.
— Positive real interest rates when measured versus inflation expectations. …
Countries are smart: they are taking their Russian gold and sending it to Switzerland for restamping.
(Spence/BloombergNews/GATA)
Swiss imports of Russian gold rise to most since April 2020
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-09-20 21:17Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eddie Spence Bloomberg News Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Switzerland’s imports of Russian gold surged to the highest in more than two years, a sign that more old bullion from the country may be being remelted to make it easier to sell.
About 5.7 tons — worth $324 million — of Russian metal was imported by the refining hub in August, according to data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. That’s the most since April 2020.
The shipment was Russian metal that arrived from the UK, the customs administration said in a statement today. Swiss customs data show the last place the precious metal was refined, rather than where it was last shipped from.
Russia’s gold has become taboo since the country invaded Ukraine earlier in the year. New Russian gold has been sanctioned by the United States, European Union, and Switzerland, but bars exported from the country before Aug 4 are not subject to the import ban, the customs authority said. …
In my latest YouTube video, I talk about my journey to get an official investigation by ASIC.
It took me a direct investment of $AUD 50,000 to complete my own 9-month investigation which resulted in me submitting a 608 page report of alleged misconduct to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) in April 2022.
With chances of less than 1% and with no legal expertise or law enforcement experience, I was able to get ASIC to confirm 7 weeks ago (in late July 2022) that an official investigation had commenced.
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0478
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0546
SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 5.23 PTS OR 0.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 336.60 PTS OR 1.79%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 375.79 PTS OR 1.36%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 110.47/Euro FALLS TO 0.99073
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.03/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.886%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.143%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.034%…** DANGEROUS
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.43//
3j Gold at $1675.00 silver at: 19.56 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.65//
3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.03DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9630–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9542well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.542 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.546 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,32…GETTTING DANGEROUS
Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE
Neurotic Markets Swing Ahead Of Fed Decision, Eyeing Ukraine War Escalation
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 07:45 AM
With traders nervously doing nothing ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, where Powell will announce a 75bps rate hike but all attention will be on whether the 2023 median dot (which as we previewed will unleash havoc if it comes above 4.5% which is where market expectations top out for this hiking cycle), today’s extremely illiquid market got an extra jolt of volatility just before the European open when shortly after 2am ET Vladimir Putin delivered his postponed message to announce a “partial mobilization” over the Ukraine war. The news slammed stocks, yields, and the euro while sending oil and commodities sharply higher. And while the initial spike lower has reversed and futures are modestly in the green now, there is zero liquidity right now and the smallest sell program could topples risk assets.
As of 7:15am ET, US futures pointed to a recovery from Tuesday’s tumble on anxiety policy makers are hoping to spark a recession in their zeal to subdue price pressures. S&P futures were up 0.2% after trading down 0.6% earlier, with Nasdaq futures 0.1% in the green. 10Y yields dipped 3bps to 3.54% even though the USD was higher and bitcoin fluctuated between losses and gains.
In premarket trading, the MIC won again with US defense stocks rising amid after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a “partial mobilization” with the Kremlin also moving to annex occupied regions of Ukraine. Northrop Grumman +1.9%, Lockheed Martin +2.8% and Raytheon +2.5%. Oil and gas shares also rose in US premarket trading, benefiting from a surge in crude prices after Putin ordered a partial mobilization to hold on to disputed territories in Ukraine. Exxon +1.2%, Devon Energy +2%, Marathon Oil +1.8%, Occidental Petroleum +1.9%, Schlumberger +1.5%. Other notable premarket movers:
Stitch Fix (SFIX US) shares are down 10% in premarket trading after the personal styling company issued a weaker-than-expected 4Q update and disappointed analysts with its FY23 outlook. At least two analysts cut their PT on the stock
Keep an eye on Oxford Industries (OXM US) as Citi upgrades it to neutral in note, citing the apparel company’s continued momentum and “attractive” acquisition of the Johnny Was brand
Watch Coty (COTY US) as the company raised its outlook for the current quarter because of stronger-than-expected sales of more expensive fragrances and personal-care products, showing demand for higher-end items remains robust despite rising living costs
The escalation of the Russian war is likely to reverberate across markets, deepening the energy and food crisis, according to Ales Koutny, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. Putin’s land grab and military escalation comes after a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the last few weeks dealt his troops their worst defeats since the early months of the conflict, retaking more than 10% of the territory that Russia held.
“This will continue to put risk assets under pressure, with sentiment playing a significant part for both equities and credit,” Koutny said. “We believe the USD will continue to benefit as the US is isolated from a geographic perspective and more resilient due to the make-up of its economy.”
Turning to today’s main event, Powell is widely expected to boost rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, according to the vast majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Only two project a 100 basis points move.
“There’s been so much speculation about the Fed’s next step that finally having a decision should provide some much needed relief for investors,” said Danni Hewson, an analyst at AJ Bell Plc. “If it sticks to script and delivers another 75 basis point hike markets are likely to rally somewhat, partly because the specter of a full percentage point rise didn’t come to pass.”
European equities also swung higher after posting early losses in the run-up to the Fed meeting; the Stoxx 50 was little changed. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 0.8%, DAX lags, dropping 0.1%. UK stocks climbed and the pound slid after the British government unveiled a £40 billion bailout to help companies with their energy bills this winter amid soaring prices that threaten to put many out of business. Travel, autos and tech are the worst-performing sectors. European defense stocks and energy stocks gain after President Vladimir Putin declared a “partial mobilization” and vowed to use all means necessary to defend Russian territory as the Kremlin moved to annex parts of Ukraine that it’s occupied, threatening to escalate the conflict further. Rheinmetall rises as much as +11%, Thales +6.1%. Energy stocks outperform as oil rallies, with Shell up as much as +3.3% TotalEnergies +3.0%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
UK homebuilders gain, bucking a broader market decline, following a Times of London report saying Prime Minister Liz Truss will outline a plan to cut stamp duty during Friday’s mini budget
Fortum shares rise as much as 20%, the biggest jump ever, after Germany said it will buy all of the Finnish company’s stock in Uniper at a better-than-expected price of EU1.70 a share. Meanwhile, Uniper slides as much as 39% on the news, its biggest drop ever.
Vodafone shares gain as much as 2.4% after French billionaire Xavier Niel’s 2.5% stake in the telecom company adds to the pressure for the telecom giant to accelerate its M&A push, according to New Street Research
Renault shares drop as much as 4.0% after Bernstein says it remains cautious about the carmaker’s earnings prospects for 2023 following the stock’s recovery from the Russia crisis earlier this year
Autoliv drops as much as 4.7% in Stockholm, to the lowest since mid July, following SEB downgrade in Sept. 20 note citing a “more uncertain” outlook for 2023
Games Workshop shares fall as much as 16%, the most since Jan. 11, after the maker of the Warhammer series of games said pretax profit in the three-month period to Aug. 28 slid to ~£39m from £45m a year earlier
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined ahead of an expected interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and as Russia’s escalation of war sapped investors’ appetite for risk. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, driven by losses in technology shares. The benchmark held the loss as Russia said it was mobilizing more troops for its war against Ukraine. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led declines among regional measures, with notable drops also in Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines. The main gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms sank into a technical bear market. With a third 75-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee widely expected, some investors have moved to price in an even larger increase. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on efforts to fight inflation will be closely parsed for clues on the future rate path.
“Asian markets are still uncertain about size of rate hikes in upcoming FOMC meetings including today’s meeting,” said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment Corp. “Also, recent depreciation of Asian currencies, especially RMB, enlarges the weakness of equity markets.” The dollar’s strength has pushed a gauge of Asian currencies to a 19-year low, prompting global investors to withdraw funds from the region’s emerging stock markets. Central bank decisions are also due this week from Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Asian Development Bank cut its economic growth forecast for China and also lowered its outlook for developing Asia amid rising interest rates, a prolonged war in Ukraine and Beijing’s Covid-Zero policy.
Japanese equities fell as investors await decisions from central banks including the Federal Reserve and the BOJ. The Topix Index fell 1.4% to 1,920.80 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 1.4% to 27,313.13. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 345 rose and 1,734 fell, while 90 were unchanged. “The focus is on the FRB terminal rate and how far the monetary tightening will go,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Limited. “They have a strong stance of controlling inflation no matter what happens to the economy and it’s questionable whether they can really do that.”
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.6% to close at 6,700.20, with miners and banks weighing the most on the benchmark, as investors positioned for a hefty interest rate hike from a hawkish Federal Reserve. All sectors except communication services declined. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.6% to 11,498.95
In FX, the dollar headed for a fresh record, rising for a second day as the greenback traded steady to higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers. CHF and JPY are the strongest performers in G-10 FX in haven play, SEK and EUR underperform. Sweden’s krona suffered the steepest loss among G-10 peers to trade at around 11 per dollar, and is set for its longest slump since June, one day after the . The euro plunged as much as 0.9% to $0.9885, a two-week low, after Vladimir Putin threatened to step up his war in Ukraine. Bunds and Italian bonds advanced, outperforming Treasuries on haven buying and snapping two-day declining streaks. The pound dropped to a fresh 37-year low against a broadly stronger US dollar. Data showing a rise in UK government borrowing also weighed on sterling.
The offshore yuan fell to the lowest against the greenback since mid 2020, even after the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the currency stronger-than-expected for a 20th day.
In rates, Treasuries advanced, with yields falling up to 4bps, led by the belly of the curve trailing bigger gains for most European bond markets after Russia’s Putin mobilized more troops for Ukraine invasion and referenced nuclear capabilities. US 10-year yields around 3.55%, richer by ~2bp on the day and trailing comparable bunds by ~1bp in the sector; gilts lag by ~3bp; 2s10s curve is flatter by ~2bp, 5s30s by ~1bp. Euro-area bonds advanced, with the German 10-year yield dropping three basis points to 1.89%. Gilts 10-year yield down 2bps to 3.27%.
In commodities, WTI drifts 2.7% higher to trade near $86.17. Spot gold rises roughly $9 to trade near $1,674/oz.
Crypto markets saw a leg lower following the Putin-induced risk aversion, with Bitcoin still under the $19,000 mark.
In terms of the day ahead, the highlight will be the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. We’ll also hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, and on the data side we’ll get US existing home sales for August.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,874.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 404.48
MXAP down 1.4% to 148.38
MXAPJ down 1.4% to 485.75
Nikkei down 1.4% to 27,313.13
Topix down 1.4% to 1,920.80
Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 18,444.62
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,117.18
Sensex down 0.2% to 59,574.87
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 6,700.22
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,347.21
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.85%
Euro down 0.7% to $0.9901
Brent Futures up 2.6% to $93.00/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,670.80
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.51% to 110.77
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on after market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month
Currency traders are girding for the biggest price swings in months in the build up to this week’s crucial Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions
Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned
The ECB faces a delicate balancing act as it seeks to address record euro-zone inflation while the economy weakens, according to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos
The British government unveiled a multibillion-pound bailout to help companies with their energy bills this winter amid soaring prices that threaten to put many out of business
Prime Minister Liz Truss will cut the rates of stamp duty for UK home purchases as the government attempts to stimulate growth, The Times of London reported. Shares of UK homebuilders climbed
China’s current interest rates are “reasonable” and provide room for future policy action, the People’s Bank of China said, adding to expectations it may resume lowering rates in coming months
A right-wing coalition is widely expected to win Italy’s election on Sunday. Such an outcome may raise doubts over the path of reforms that are a condition for the country to receive EU funds to hasten its post-pandemic recovery
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded lower as the region followed suit to the global risk aversion heading into today’s FOMC policy announcement and amid heightened geopolitical concerns surrounding Ukraine as several separatist regions plan to hold a referendum to join Russia, while Russian President Putin is to address the nation in which many expect him to call for a mobilisation. ASX 200 declined with the commodity-related sectors and tech leading the downturn seen across all industries. Nikkei 225 was subdued ahead of central bank announcements including the BoJ which began its 2-day meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also negative with underperformance in Hong Kong amid tech weakness and with sentiment not helped by the US FCC adding more companies to its national security threat list.
Top Asian News
Asian Development Bank cut its Developing Asia growth forecast for 2022 to 4.3% from 5.2% and for 2023 to 4.9% from 5.3%, while it cut its China growth forecast for 2022 to 3.35 from 5.0% and for 2023 to 4.5% from 4.8%.
FCC added China Unicom (762 HK) to its national security threats list.
North Korean leader Kim sent a message to Chinese President Xi and said that ties with China are to reach a new high stage, according to state media.
RBA Deputy Governor Bullock said policy is not restrictive as yet and is looking at opportunities to slow hikes at some point, while she noted concerns about the health of China’s economy, zero-COVID policy and property market.
RBA announced its review of the pandemic bond-buying program (BPP) in which it found that it should only be used in extreme circumstances and said it recorded large mark to market losses on BPP bonds in 2021/22, while it plans to hold BPP bonds to maturity and receive face value to offset accounting losses, according to Reuters.
Stocks in Europe have clambered off worst levels with the region now trading mixed on the eve of the FOMC following initial Russian-induced downside. Overall sectors are now more mixed, and the earlier defensive bias has somewhat dissipated. Stateside, after the dust settled and earlier moves have been trimmed, with US equity futures now trading on either side of the unchanged mark.
Top European News
UK PM Truss is to tell the UN General Assembly that she will lead a new Britain for a new era and will call on democracies to harness the power of cooperation seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “to constrain authoritarianism”, according to Downing Street. Furthermore, PM Truss is to tell the UN that Britain will no longer be dependent on those who seek to weaponise the global economy and will argue that the free world must prioritise economic growth and security, according to Reuters and Sky News. Furthermore, PM Truss is to launch a new defence review and call on Russian reparations, according to FT.
UK PM Truss is to announce plans to cut stamp duty in the mini-budget this week in an effort to drive economic growth, according to The Times.
ECB SSM member McCaul said the ECB is particularly concerned about banks that are heavily exposed to highly vulnerable corporates with a weak debt servicing capacity.
ECB’s de Guindos said FX rate is one of the most important variables that need to be looked at carefully.
FX
USD bid on risk-aversion pre-FOMC, though the DXY has since eased from the fresh YTD high at 110.87.
Amidst this, the EUR slipped below 0.99 and away from hefty OpEx with G10 peers broadly softer amid the above USD move.
However, petro-fx bucks the trend given the pronounced crude rally and has seen the CAD and NOK derive modest upside.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9536 vs exp. 6.9539 (prev. 6.9468).
BoC’s Beaudry said the bank will continue to do whatever is necessary to restore price stability and maintain confidence it can meet the 2% target, while Beaudry thinks August inflation data is still too high but added that the data shows we are headed in the right direction. Beaudry also stated that to avoid de-anchoring and to bring inflation sustainably back to target, some suggested a substantial slowdown or even a recession be engineered.
Fixed Income
A concerted initial bid for core benchmarks driven by broad risk-aversion, lifting Bund to a unsuccessful test of 142.00 briefly.
Though, as action settles post-Putin and pre-Fed EGBs have backed away from best levels though retain a positive foothold.
Note, it is worth caveating that today’s upside is well within existing parameters for the week – given the pronounced hawkish action on Tuesday.
10 year T-note is hovering on the 114-00 handle within a 114-07+/113-27+ band and awaiting the Fed & Chair Powell.
Commodities
The crude complex has been propped up by the escalation in rhetoric from Russia.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.0mln (exp. +2.2mln), Cushing +0.5mln, Gasoline +3.2mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.4mln).
Spot gold caught a bid despite the firmer Dollar on the back of post-Putin haven demand.
LME copper has given up its earlier gains as the Dollar gained and sentiment soured.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications +3.8%, prior -1.2%
10:00: Aug. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.3%, prior -5.9%
10:00: Aug. Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.7m, prior 4.81m
Markets are often in a holding pattern when we arrive at Fed decision days, with investors waiting for the policy announcement before the big moves take place. But the last 24 hours have been a very different story, with the selloff accelerating thanks to concerns that the Fed and other central banks still have plenty of hawkish medicine left to deliver. See my CoTD here yesterday for the 500bps of hikes from major central banks expected between yesterday and lunchtime tomorrow. As I also showed the ratio of global hikes to cuts now stand at 25:1, this hasn’t got above 5:1 in the 25 years I have comprehensive global data. Email jim-reid.thematicresearch@db.com if you want to be on the daily CoTD list.
Those rate hike jitters were present from early in the session yesterday after Sweden’s Riksbank unexpectedly announced a bumper 100bps hike, which came shortly after a stronger-than-expected print on German producer prices for August. In the meantime, the latest on the Ukraine situation didn’t help sentiment either, as it was announced that referendums would be held later this week in the Russian-occupied regions on whether they should be part of Russia.
By the close of trade, this had led to a very challenging day across the major asset classes, with little respite for investors anywhere. In particular, there were some big moves on the rates side as Treasury yields hit their highest levels in years, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +7.3bps to a post-2011 high of 3.56% after trading as much as +10bps higher, intraday. The 2yr followed a similar pattern, increasing as much as +5.2bps intraday before ending the day +3.1bps higher at 3.97%, not quite breaching the 4% mark in trading, which would have been for the first time since 2007. This morning in Asia, yields on 10yr USTs (-0.59 bps) are fairly stable.
To counter higher bond yields, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in an unscheduled government bond buying operation this morning, announced that it would purchase 150 billion yen ($1.04 billion) of debt with a remaining life of five to 10 years, and 100 billion yen of securities maturing in 10 to 25 years. The fresh buying would be in addition to the central bank’s already existing daily offer of buying unlimited quantities of 10yr JGBs at 0.25%. However, the response was muted as the Japanese yen was trading flat at about 143.8 against the US dollar, still in the vicinity of a 24-year historical low as we go to print. Debate around the BoJ’s defence off its YCC policy will only intensify as global yields are under pressure. One to watch again.
Yesterday’s bond losses come against the backdrop of the Fed’s decision today at 19:00 London time, where futures are fully pricing in a third consecutive 75bps hike. That’s quite the turnaround since the last meeting in July, when markets initially latched on to a dovish interpretation after Chair Powell said “it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases”, which led to an easing of financial conditions following the meeting and well into August. However, no such slowdown is in sight following last week’s CPI print, which shut down any lingering questions about a slower pace of hikes for the time being. In fact, any doubts over today’s decision are all about whether the Fed might go even faster and hike by 100bps, with futures currently pricing in a 18% chance of such a move. So clearly not dismissing the possibility, although the absence of “well informed” journalist articles preparing the ground for 100bps speaks volumes
Our US economists’ expectations (link here) are in line with market pricing today, and they expect a 75bps move that’ll be followed up with another 75bps hike in November. One thing to keep an eye out for will be the latest Summary of Economic Projections, which they expect will signal more pain in the labour market in order to tame inflationary pressures, with an upgrade to their unemployment forecasts. We’ll also get a first look at the 2025 dot plot, which they think will show the Fed funds rate at 3.4%, so still above their long-run estimate for the nominal fed funds rate, and they think the tone in Chair Powell’s press conference will sound more like the hawkish messaging out of Jackson Hole rather than the dovish signals from July.
Those hawkish expectations meant that risk assets continued to struggle alongside sovereign bonds, with the S&P 500 (-1.13%) very nearly ending up back in bear market territory. It was much the same story in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (-1.09%) lost ground for a 6th consecutive session for the first time since the June slump, and is within 1% of the YTD lows. Germany’s DAX (-1.03%) is now down by more than -20% on a YTD basis again. Interestingly, European equities had initially opened higher on the day, with the STOXX 600 up +0.96% at its peak. However, sentiment turned around the time we heard of the Riksbank’s policy decision, as they unexpectedly hiked by 100bps, rather than the 75bps expected by the consensus, whilst also signalling further rate hikes ahead. In turn, that fuelled speculation that the Fed might also pull off a surprise move, even if that’s still far from the market’s base case.
Staying on Europe, it’s worth noting that the rise in sovereign bond yields there were more dramatic than those seen in the United States. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+12.1bps) rose to a post-2014 high of 1.92%, whilst those on BTPs (+10.1bps) hit a post-2013 high of 4.18%. Following the end of European bond trading, ECB President Lagarde noted that inflation was much higher and persistent than anticipated, which has driven the front-loading of ECB rate hikes we’ve seen to date. She reiterated the ECB plans to raise rates over the next few meetings, and will size those hikes on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Like some Fed speakers, she noted the ECB cannot take anchored inflation expectations for granted, but drew contrast to the situation in the United States by spending a lot of her speech outlining why European inflation was not as demand-driven, but a result of supply shocks. I personally would say that’s up for debate with unemployment at the lowest since the Euro came into being and wage growth high.
Gilts were the biggest underperformer ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England decision, with 10yr yields up +15.4bps to a post-2011 high of 3.29%. In terms of market pricing for that decision tomorrow, overnight index swaps are pricing in 65.2bps worth of hikes, so nearly equidistant between 50bps and 75bps.
Whilst central banks are in focus this week, there was significant news from Ukraine as four Russian-controlled regions will be holding referendums this week on whether they should be a part of Russia. They’re set to happen from September 23-27, and will take place in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Further, as reported in Bloomberg, the concern is that Russia is moving toward a more full mobilisation, which would only lead to a further entrenchment of the war. All this news doesn’t suggest that the peaceful end of the war is imminent and that the counter offensive successes by Ukraine 10 days ago might have escalated tensions as was feared at the time. We expect to hear public remarks from President Putin later this morning, so more to come on what already promises to be a big macro day for markets.
Asian equity markets are continuing with their downward trend this morning. Among the major indices, the Hang Seng (-1.66%) is the biggest laggard in early trade, reversing the previous session’s recovery. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.37%), Shanghai Composite (-0.58%), the CSI (-0.98%) and the Kospi (-0.95%) are all trading in the red.
US stock futures are fluctuating with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.07%) just above flat but with DAX futures (-0.29%) lower.
In terms of yesterday’s data releases, US housing starts rose by more than expected in August, reaching an annualised rate of 1.575m (vs. 1.45m expected), while the prior month was revised down to 1.404m from 1.446m. Meanwhile, building permits continued to fall, down to an annualised 1.517m (vs. 1.604m expected), which is their lowest level since June 2020. The net impact of the housing data had the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model revise down third quarter growth to 0.3% from 0.5% after downgrading residential investment growth to -24.5% from -20.8%. So, we’re a surprise or two away from a third straight quarter of negative headline GDP growth, and yet more equivocation about why the US currently is or is not in a recession.
Otherwise, German producer prices were up by +45.8% in August on a year-on-year basis (vs. +36.8% expected). That said, there was some weaker-than-expected inflation from Canada, where CPI fell to +7.0% year-on-year (vs. +7.3% expected).
In terms of the day ahead, the highlight will be the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. We’ll also hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, and on the data side we’ll get US existing home sales for August.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK
Initial Putin induced risk-off has dissipated ahead of the FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 06:30 AM
Stocks in Europe have clambered off worst levels with the region now trading mixed on the eve of the FOMC following the initial Russian-induced downside
US equity futures are modestly firmer, but near the unchanged mark overall
USD bid on risk-aversion pre-FOMC, though the DXY has since eased from the fresh YTD high at 110.87
The concerted initial bid for core benchmarks has waned with yields subdued
Crude propped up by the Russian rhetoric and relatively resilient to the paring of initial moves elsewhere
Specifically, Russian President Putin declared a partial mobilisation and used “nuclear” language in a threat to the west
Looking ahead, highlights include the FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
LOOKING AHEAD
FOMC Policy Announcement/Press Conference.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian President Putin, in his televised speech to the nation this morning, announced that partial mobilisation will begin today (September 21st) whilst threatening the west with “All means of destruction, including nuclear ones”, and warned that this is not a bluff. The Russian Defence Minister Shoigu was interviewed in the minutes after Putin and suggested Russia is not fighting just against Ukraine, but NATO and the collective West.Full Newsquawk analysis, details and reaction available here
“Negotiations with Ukraine will become impossible after the entry of Donbass into Russia”, according to Tass citing the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the situation on the front-line clearly shows the initiative belongs to Ukraine and said their positions do not change because of noise or announcements from somewhere when referring to “noisy news from Russia”, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Blinken tweeted that any Russian sham “referenda” in Ukraine would be illegitimate and an affront to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that are the foundation of the UN Charter, while he added the US and the international community will never recognise Russia’s claims to any purportedly-annexed parts of Ukraine.
US senior US State Department official said the US made it clear there will be increased consequences on Russia if it goes ahead with plans to annex parts of Ukraine, according to Reuters.
CHINA-TAIWAN
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson said China is willing to make the utmost effort to strive for peaceful unification, according to Reuters.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
Stocks in Europe have clambered off worst levels with the region now trading mixed on the eve of the FOMC following initial Russian-induced downside.
Overall sectors are now more mixed, and the earlier defensive bias has somewhat dissipated.
Stateside, after the dust settled and earlier moves have been trimmed, with US equity futures now trading on either side of the unchanged mark.
USD bid on risk-aversion pre-FOMC, though the DXY has since eased from the fresh YTD high at 110.87.
Amidst this, the EUR slipped below 0.99 and away from hefty OpEx with G10 peers broadly softer amid the above USD move.
However, petro-fx bucks the trend given the pronounced crude rally and has seen the CAD and NOK derive modest upside.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9536 vs exp. 6.9539 (prev. 6.9468).
BoC’s Beaudry said the bank will continue to do whatever is necessary to restore price stability and maintain confidence it can meet the 2% target, while Beaudry thinks August inflation data is still too high but added that the data shows we are headed in the right direction. Beaudry also stated that to avoid de-anchoring and to bring inflation sustainably back to target, some suggested a substantial slowdown or even a recession be engineered.
Crypto markets saw a leg lower following the Putin-induced risk aversion, with Bitcoin still under the USD 19,000 mark.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Truss is to tell the UN General Assembly that she will lead a new Britain for a new era and will call on democracies to harness the power of cooperation seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “to constrain authoritarianism”, according to Downing Street. Furthermore, PM Truss is to tell the UN that Britain will no longer be dependent on those who seek to weaponise the global economy and will argue that the free world must prioritise economic growth and security, according to Reuters and Sky News. Furthermore, PM Truss is to launch a new defence review and call on Russian reparations, according to FT.
UK PM Truss is to announce plans to cut stamp duty in the mini-budget this week in an effort to drive economic growth, according to The Times.
ECB SSM member McCaul said the ECB is particularly concerned about banks that are heavily exposed to highly vulnerable corporates with a weak debt servicing capacity.
ECB’s de Guindos said FX rate is one of the most important variables that need to be looked at carefully.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US HHS Secretary declared a public health emergency for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona, while NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft finds Fiona strengthening with strong winds and heavy rains over Turks and Caicos, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded lower as the region followed suit to the global risk aversion heading into today’s FOMC policy announcement and amid heightened geopolitical concerns surrounding Ukraine as several separatist regions plan to hold a referendum to join Russia, while Russian President Putin is to address the nation in which many expect him to call for a mobilisation.
ASX 200 declined with the commodity-related sectors and tech leading the downturn seen across all industries.
Nikkei 225 was subdued ahead of central bank announcements including the BoJ which began its 2-day meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also negative with underperformance in Hong Kong amid tech weakness and with sentiment not helped by the US FCC adding more companies to its national security threat list.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
Asian Development Bank cut its Developing Asia growth forecast for 2022 to 4.3% from 5.2% and for 2023 to 4.9% from 5.3%, while it cut its China growth forecast for 2022 to 3.35 from 5.0% and for 2023 to 4.5% from 4.8%.
FCC added China Unicom (762 HK) to its national security threats list.
North Korean leader Kim sent a message to Chinese President Xi and said that ties with China are to reach a new high stage, according to state media.
RBA Deputy Governor Bullock said policy is not restrictive as yet and is looking at opportunities to slow hikes at some point, while she noted concerns about the health of China’s economy, zero-COVID policy and property market.
RBA announced its review of the pandemic bond-buying program (BPP) in which it found that it should only be used in extreme circumstances and said it recorded large mark to market losses on BPP bonds in 2021/22, while it plans to hold BPP bonds to maturity and receive face value to offset accounting losses, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
Australian Westpac Leading Index MM (Aug) -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.23 PTS OR 0.17% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.60 PTS OR 1.79% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 375.29 PTS OR 1.36% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.55% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0478//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0540// /Oil UP TO 85.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92,59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
3B JAPAN
3c CHINA
CHINA/RUSSIA
China reacts to Putin’s mobilization: China strangely calls for immediate ceasefire and dialogue. First time that China has responded to its ally, Russia on the war.
(zerohedge)
China Reacts To Putin Speech, Urges Immediate Ceasefire & Dialogue
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 08:20 AM
Earlier on Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin announced what he dubbed a “partial mobilization” of national forces while vowing to use all means necessary to defend Russia and pledged to annex the territories already occupied by Russia, as we detailed, significantly raising the stakes in the seven-month-old conflict.
Various countries around the globe were quick to react, most especially China, which issued a statement within hours after the speech calling for “ceasefire through dialogue”. China has throughout the war defended in various statements Russia’s ‘legitimate’ security concerns about NATO expansion while continuing to tout close, positive ties with Moscow.
But this is perhaps the first time Beijing has so clearly and publicly pushed for a ceasefire after such a key Moscow announcement, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin calling for “a cease-fire through negotiations and solutions that answer all parties’ security concerns,”according to state-run Global Times.
“Every country’s reasonable security concerns should be valued, and all efforts conducive to resolving the crisis peacefully should be supported. China calls for dialogue and consultation to resolve the divergences,” Wang added.
While China worded its statement carefully as focusing on a solution that would advance the security concerns of “all parties” – the statements coming from other international quarters continued laying blame for the conflict squarely on Russian and on Putin.
For starters, the Ukrainian presidency’s office suggested this means Putin is in fear of losing the war: “The war is clearly not going according to Russia’s scenario and therefore required Putin to make extremely unpopular decisions to mobilize and severely restrict the rights of people,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in a statement to Reuters.
Washington was quick to blast the newly declared Kremlin-backed referendums set to take place in occupied territories of Ukraine, with US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink responding on Twitter that “Sham referenda and mobilization are signs of weakness, of Russian failure.” Further the ambassador vowed that “The United States will never recognize Russia’s claim to purportedly annexed Ukrainian territory, and we will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
And the European Union responded to the partial mobilization as follows while highlighting Putin’s “very dangerous nuclear gamble”, according to foreign policy spokesman for the European Commission, Peter Stano:
“This is just another proof that Putin is not interested in peace, that he’s interested in escalating this war of aggression.”
“This is also yet another sign of his desperation with how his aggression is going against Ukraine…he is only interested in further advancing and continuing his destructive war, which has had already so many bad consequences worldwide.”
As for the prospect of escalation, there has been evidence over the past week that Russian forces have stepped up attacks on crucial Ukrainian infrastructure. The Kremlin has maintained all along that its forces have been “holding back” – but it appears that is changing…
Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck meanwhile called it “another bad and wrong step from Russia, which of course we will discuss and consult on politically regarding how to respond.” Berlin too has vowed to never recognized annexed territory.
British foreign office minister Gillian Keegan called it an obvious and very serious escalation, telling Sky News, “Clearly, it’s something that we should take very seriously because, you know, we’re not in control – I am not sure he’s in control either, really. This is obviously an escalation.”
end
CHINA/TAIWAN
USA nay commander claims that China is quite capable of blockading Taiwan
(zerohedge)
US Navy Commander Says China Is Capable Of Blockading Taiwan
TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 05:05 PM
With increasing tensions between the US and China over diplomatic visits and interactions with Taiwan as well as growing arms sales, global concerns are rising that the CCP and Xi Jinping will finally do what they have been threatening to do for decades and invade. This invasion would be to force what they call “reunification” and it has been a Chinese communist obsession since their nationalist opponents fled to Taiwan in 1949.
There are many theories about how an invasion of Taiwan would play out, with many officials in Taiwan preparing for amphibious assault, air bombardment, missile bombardment and naval attack. Bunkers and bomb shelters are being built in major cities and towns across Taiwan with troops training to disguise military equipment as civilian equipment. However, there is a scenario which is not often discussed in the mainstream media that is far more likely: A blockade.
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, suggested that a naval blockade of Taiwan by China is possible and that China is entirely capable.
“They have a very large navy, and if they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that…”
The blockade strategy has several advantages that make it the primary option for China. First, it allows them the strangle all trade to and from Taiwan, forcing the country to rely solely on China for imports and exports. Without “reunification,” 23 million Taiwan citizens could face months without new shipments of survival necessities.
Second, it is essentially non-kinetic, and allows China to maintain an image of relative “peacefulness” while still isolating the island militarily and strangling the economy of Taiwan. If western forces act to intervene, it could be construed as an “act of war” in a situation that calls for diplomacy.
Third, if successful, there would be almost zero military losses for China and very low costs in terms of resources. The cost to benefit ratio would be favorable.
Fourth, it makes sanctions similar to those used by NATO countries against Russia less likely. With no visceral images of death and destruction for the media to play on a loop, convincing the public to accept the loss of a huge portion of the global supply chain by sanctioning China would be difficult.
Vice Adm. Karl Thomas notes: “Clearly if they do something that’s non-kinetic, which, you know, a blockade is less kinetic…then that allows the international community to weigh in and to work together on how we’re going to solve that challenge.”
While China’s navy is large in terms of the number of ships, most of the vessels are smaller and less advanced compared to western navies. China does not have the ability to project naval power across the oceans to invade western opponents, it would be a disaster for them. But, what they can do is lure countries like the US into a quagmire situation, bleeding our resources over time and wearing down our logistics and morale.
With the sudden and inexplicable flurry of meetings between Taiwan officials and US representatives including Nancy Pelosi, not to mention multiple instances of Joe Biden stating that the US would intervene in Taiwan if China attacks, a confrontation looks inevitable.
It may be the Chinese government’s intention to draw the US into a long term engagement overseas that we cannot win.
With the typhoon season coming to a close in October, if there is a blockade of Taiwan planned it would happen soon. Such tactics also tend to have quick returns, with supplies cut off to the general population, it would only take a couple of months before panic sets in. US or NATO would be forced to respond kinetically in order to end the blockade swiftly before the populace of Taiwan ran out of supplies.
Unlike Ukraine, it would be very difficult for the West to supply Taiwan with an endless flood of money and weapons, and with NATO already reaching it’s limit with Ukraine support packages, fighting a proxy war on a second front could be disastrous.
END
CHINA//RUSSIA
As expected, Russian oil and Russian coal exports to China soar in August
(zerohedge)
Russian Oil, Coal Exports To China Soar In August
TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 11:05 PM
China’s imports of crude oil and coal imports from Russia exploded in August, data showed on Tuesday, but despite the jump in supply, Russia handed back its top oil supplier ranking to Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months, even as coal exports hit a record high.
According to data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs, imports of Russian oil, including supplies pumped via the East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia’s European and Far Eastern ports, totalled 8.342 million tonnes, up 28% Y/Y, the equivalent of 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd), and just slightly off May’s record of nearly 2 million bpd. China is Russia’s largest oil buyer, especially now that most of the western world has sanctioned Russian energy.
China’s purchases of Russian oil have soared in order to reap the benefits of a plunge in European buying and tumbling prices for Russian oil…
… just when Beijing needs it most as the Ukraine crisis pushes Moscow in search of alternative markets
Russian imports rose as Chinese independent refiners extended purchases of discounted Russian supplies that elbowed out rival cargoes from West Africa and Brazil.
But despite the full price, imports from Saudi Arabia rebounded last month to 8.475 million tonnes, or 1.99 million bpd, 5% above the year ago levels, and just inching out Russia for the top spot. Saudi Arabia also remains the biggest supplier on a year-to-date basis, shipping 58.31 million tonnes of oil from January to August, down 0.3% on the year, versus 55.79 million tonnes from Russia, which was up 7.3% from the year ago period.
In total, China crude oil imports in August fell 9.4% from a year earlier, as outages at state-run refineries and lower operations at independent plants caused by weak margins capped buying.
The table below shows imports by country, with volumes in metric tonnes and percentage change calculated by Reuters.
The strong purchases of Russian oil continued to weigh on competing supplies from Angola and Brazil, which fell in August by 34% and 47% year-on-year, respectively. Customs reported no imports from Venezuela or Iran last month. State oil firms have shunned purchases since late 2019 for fear of falling foul of secondary U.S. sanctions, although many still engage in illicit trade which is not disclosed on the books. One such company is defense-focused China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp (CASIC) which moved 25 million barrels of Venezuelan crude into China since late 2020, which Chinese customs does not report.
Tuesday’s customs data also showed imports from Malaysia, often used as a transfer point in the past two years for oil originating from Iran, Venezuela and more recently Russia, nearly doubled from a year earlier, to 3.37 million tonnes, or 794,000 bpd.
China did not import any crude from the United States, data showed.
But it wasn’t just Russian oil that Beijing was waving in: China’s coal imports from Russia also exploded in August, exceeding last month’s level and hitting the highest in at least five years, as power utilities in the world’s biggest coal consumer sought overseas supplies to meet soaring demand in extreme hot weather.
Arrivals of Russian coal last month reached 8.54 million tonnes, up from the previous peak of 7.42 million tonnes in July and 57% higher than in the same period last year, Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday. In fact, the monthly figure was the highest on record, since comparable statistics began in 2017.
Prices for Russian coal have climbed as both China and India stepped up buying, traders said, but were still cheaper than the domestic coal of same quality. Russian thermal coal at 5,500 kcal on delivery basis to China was assessed at about $155 a tonne in late August, up from about $150 a tonne a month earlier.
As Reuters notes, after a severe drought and heatwave hit western and southern China from late July, coal-fired power plants geared up production to meet the spiking demand for air conditioning and the supply gap from hydropower stations. They also increased purchases of higher quality thermal coal, such as Russian coal, to improve electricity generation efficiency.
China brought in 15.82 million tonnes of the dirty fuel from its top supplier Indonesia in August, 35% higher from July, data showed. But that was still lower than the 17.3 million tonnes imported in August last year.
The increase of Indonesian coal purchases came as lucrative prices encouraged utilities to place more orders. In August, Indonesian 3,800 kcal thermal coal was about 170 yuan ($24.26) a tonne cheaper than the same quality Chinese coal, and 4,700 kcal coal was 140 yuan lower.
Power utilities are expected to increase imports in October to replenish stocks ahead of the kick-off of the heating season in most of northern China in mid-November.
However, as renminbi depreciation continues, imported coal will become more expensive for Chinese buyers and potentially dent demand.
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS
GERMANY//EUROPE//ENERGY/
Germany to buy the remaining 70% of UNIPER
(zerohedge)
Germany To Nationalize Struggling Uniper In Deepening Energy Crisis
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 08:59 AM
Germany on Wednesday announced a move to nationalize struggling natural gas supplier Uniper SE as it strives to keep the industry functioning in the wake of a global energy crisis, according to Reuters.
Uniper is Germany’s largest importer of Russian NatGas and has suffered tremendous losses after Russian energy giant Gazprom slashed Nord Stream 1’s pipeline capacity to zero, forcing the utility to purchase natgas outside contracts on the open market at record high prices.
Berlin agreed to purchase the remaining stake owned by Uniper’s parent company, Finnish utility Fortum Oyj for $1.69 (1.70 euro) per share. Buying Fortum’s stake means Germany will own 99% of Uniper. The cost of nationalization comes as Berlin is set to inject 8 billion euros, equivalent to around $8 billion, into the utility.
The move is to keep the lights on across German homes and businesses as the risk of power rationings increases.
“This step has become necessary because the situation has worsened significantly.
“The state will do everything necessary to keep systemically important companies in Germany stable at all times,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, said Wednesday.
Uniper shares crashed by as much as 39% to 2.55 euros. Shares are down 93% on the year…
In July, Berlin injected a whooping 15 billion euros ($14.95 billion) to save the utility though the move to nationalize ahead of winter shows further deterioration in energy security for Europe’s largest economy.
Here’s what Markus Rauramo, CEO and President of Fortum, said about the deal:
“Under the current circumstances in the European energy markets and recognising the severity of Uniper’s situation, the divestment of Uniper is the right step to take, not only for Uniper but also for Fortum.
“The role of gas in Europe has fundamentally changed since Russia attacked Ukraine, and so has the outlook for a gas-heavy portfolio. As a result, the business case for an integrated group is no longer viable.”
Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach also commented:
“This secures the energy supply for companies, municipal utilities, and consumers.”
The bailouts and nationalization of utilities won’t likely end with Uniper. Berlin plans to take control and shore up positions in other struggling utilities to avoid a ‘Lehman-style’ collapse.
The good news is Germany has managed to fill up its NatGas storage facilities ahead of winter to approximately 90%. These supplies only cover two months, and without increased imports of liquefied natural gas from afar, it could only suggest a dark winter for Europe.
end
UK//UKRAINE
Foolish! UK to spend at least L 2.3 billion supporting Ukraine next year
(Zhang/EpochTimes)
UK To Spend At Least £2.3 Billion Supporting Ukraine In 2023: Truss
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged to spend at least £2.3 billion ($2.6 billion) next year on military aid to help Ukraine resist the Russian invasion.
Having committed £2.3 billion in 2022 to Ukraine’s war effort, Britain is already one of the largest military donor to Ukraine, second only to the United States.
As she prepared to fly to New York for the United Nations summit, the prime minister praised Ukrainian troops’ success in taking back around 3,000 square kilometres (1,800 square miles) from Russian hands, and pledged to at least match last year’s military aid.
She said: “Ukraine’s victories in recent weeks have been inspirational. Time and time again these brave people have defied the doubters and showed what they can do when given the military, economic, and political support they need. My message to the people of Ukraine is this: the UK will continue to be right behind you every step of the way. Your security is our security.”
The British Army’s M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) fires during Summer Shield 2022 military exercise in Adazi military base, Latvia, on May 27, 2022. (Ints Kalnins /Reuters)
Truss will use the U.N. summit to drum up support for Ukraine, and will also try to rally world leaders to end the dependence on Russian energy following President Vladimir Putin’s move to turn the taps off on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which supplied gas to Western Europe.
“By turning off the taps of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, Putin has consigned millions of people in Europe to a colder and more difficult winter,” Truss said, adding: “Too many lives—in Ukraine, in Europe and around the world—are being manipulated by a dependence on Russian energy. We need to work together to end this once and for all.”
UK Support ‘Will Not Falter’
During the past year, the UK has provided Ukraine with hundreds of rockets, five air defence systems, 120 armoured vehicles, and over 200,000 pieces of non-lethal military equipment.
The government said the precise nature of UK military support in 2023 will be determined based on the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, but it is expected to include equipment like the Multiple Launch Rocket System, which has been “decisive” to the country’s battlefield success.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said she will warn allies at the New York summit that now is not the time to “take our foot off the gas” in opposing Putin’s invasion.
“Quite the opposite, she will be very clear that UK support to Ukraine will not falter,” he added.
“We will continue to act to restore sovereignty and self-determination to Ukraine. Because this isn’t just Ukraine’s fight, the whole world suffers when a regime like Putin’s is allowed to bully and blackmail its neighbours.”
END
UK/BILL BLAIN
The Truss plan:
Bill Blain
The New Truss Trickle-Down Economic Plan Won’t Work, But Might Boost Markets
“I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked.”
The new Truss/Kwarteng grand plan to create a UK High Growth High Wage economy boils down to trickle-down economics, which simply don’t work. They won’t restore the economy, but they may, perversely, boost markets.
Global markets look pants. It is little wonder markets are stalled, stocks wobbly, bonds beaten, and entrepreneurial spirits crushed. Yet again the outlook looks incredibly bleak: Europe struggling with high inflation and a self-inflicted energy crisis, the UK struggling with just about everything, and the US on course for deepening recession. As someone once said… “when all around panic, look for the opportunities!” That might just be a tad premature call – today, the Fed will hike rates. Tomorrow, so will the Bank of England. They will be big ones.
The current Cake of Crisis is a multi-layered monstrosity.
At the bottom is inflation and how to address it – the only option being higher rates are nailed on to increase the economic misery.
The filling is inflationary consequences – a rich mix of wage-inflation, rising social tensions and growing industrial unrest.
The next layer is the war in Ukraine – how much economic pain will European citizens bear in order to contain the ravenous Russian bear.
And on the top, proverbial icing on the cake, we have politics; in the US is the populist treacle of Trump’s Republicans vs anyone and everything, Europe trying to deal with Italy and Hungary, while in the UK we have Liz Truss telling us she’s prepared to be unpopular. Unfortunately, she doesn’t look likely to be
But, but, and but again…. Just when its darkest, and all that. There will definitely be investment opportunities.. and soon.. But, maybe just not yet.
The strangest, but least beneficial opportunity, is likely to occur here in the UK – and we will have Liz Truss to thank.
I am a rational market strategist, therefore I will resist the temptation to start the morning with a completely over-the-top rant about just how awful the grand economic and growth plans of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are likely to prove. The plans are regressive, and are unlikely to succeed. Let me explain why.
Liz and Kwasi have apparently spent the last month working on an economic growth package, and are set to announce them on Friday. I could call bollchocks on the festering midden of recessive tax-give-aways and blatant electioneering we’re likely to be granted on Friday – but I will remain polite and calm. I could call her claim that it’s a holistic plan for growth as codswallop and bunkum, but I shall refrain.
Let me start by casting doubt on whether it really is a seriously considered “grand plan”. Its an election package of handouts to create a brief economic bloom. If Truss and Kwarteng really had spent the last month cloistered in serious “economic discussions and planning”, then we would know all about them. Historically, Liz Truss has leaked like a sieve with a massive hole in the middle. If her and her chancellor has been putting together the ultimate growth plan – it would have been all over the papers like a bad rash weeks ago.
More likely the pair of them come up with the “plan” over a bottle of Downing Street plonk late last week… That could have happened after she and Kwasi read innumerable articles and research saying the lack of any competent plan for the UK was a crisis point. It became abundantly clear the strategy she successfully pursued through the Tory leadership campaign of channelling Margaret Thatcher – while avoiding her default look of pathetically staring into the headlights of economic disaster – was unlikely to work for her in office, unless she had a plan..
And Kwasi is very good at plans, and telling people how good his plans are. The plan is simple. Massive handouts and tax cuts. Early Election writ large across it.
I am keen to know who has advised them on this plan. Dr Gerald Lyons and Prof Patrick Minford (a monetarist who was used to scare young economists like me back in the 1980s) are in the frame. As Kwarteng’s first act in his new job was to sack the Head of Treasury – who from government was advising them? Sir Tom Scholar was sacked because of his “treasury orthodoxy”. Did he have the temerity to stand in the way of the new policies and thinking snap election plan? Or because he might just have called out the new plans as ill-considered?
Even through the Royal Funeral, Truss was under increasing attack from economists and analysts, keen to hear how she intended to deal with the looming crisis. The lack of any joined-up plan, and the time it’s taken to reveal it strongly suggests it’s been cobbled together from whatever ideas her and her advisors have thrown into the pot.
Unless she delivers something solid and complete, it’s going to further erode confidence in the UK political economy, the currency and bond market – the Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of successful growth economies.
So… what is the plan?
Full details on Friday, but of course they have already been leaked by the Truss camp…
The plan is simple – pick a bunch of headline generating noisy ideas and back them with some empty bluster about how they will create growth and wealth. Start with some free ice-cream today in the form of tax-cuts, argue it will take a couple of years for these to work through the economy, make lots of noise about how we have to stick with them, and hope they are convincing enough to scrape through at the next election – sometime soon I expect.
Let’s start with the key corner-stone policy of the Truss Growth Plan: a quick sop to the global banks and a finger up the nose at Europe by increasing banker bonuses! Yay.. lots of richer bankers pushing up prices in London, and more banks setting up shop here rather than not setting up in Frankfurt. Yes, it’s good for banks. It’s pretty pointless for the economy – being completely London centric, (so much for levelling up).
But, the big but, it is being sold as a Brexit Benefit by Kwarteng to the frothing-at-the-mouth Brexiteers who gave Truss the job. Brexit is apparently done, so why does it still dominate every action of the government?
To avert a housing crash, they also intend to kick-start the stalled top-end of the housing market, and maybe get rich folk piling into the UK to buy homes, spend money and build high value business… At which point Kwasi pipes up.. “Spot on, cutting stamp duty is a prerequisite to everyone getting high-value jobs in our high-growth economy by attracting inward investment..” or some such bollchocks.
And then announce a series of income tax, VAT and national insurance cuts which again will benefit the wealthy. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated the tax cuts Liz Truss has announced will make the poorest three million households in the UK better off by 63 pence per month. No problem – they don’t vote Tory.
Basically.. Truss’ plan is to generate growth through the time-honoured mechanism of trickle-down. Simply put – if you allow the wealthy to pay less tax, and retain more of their wealth, then they will spend it on making everyone better off by creating jobs, industry and commercial opportunities..
Bollchocks. I don’t want to burst her bubble… but….
Yesterday President Biden of the US made a revealing comment on Twitter: “I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked. We’re building an economy from the bottom out and middle up.”He was mercilessly attacked by the American right – who passionately believe its wealthy entrepreneurs who will save society from the plague of left-wing interventions. They have a point – America is a mess.
But, I still believe Biden is right, and Truss is wrong. There is proof.
For the last 12 years – incidentally how long the Conservatives have been managing the UK economy – we’ve been involved with the biggest experiment in Trickle Down economics ever. Quantitative Easing was originally sold to the economic commentariat as a mechanism to boost economic growth by forcing money into the real economy. By buying back Gilts from the market, the idea was investors would then have to put their money into the real economy, supporting growth.
The effect was to pull down the real-risk-free rate in the economy – making money cheap – forcing investors to take more risk by investing in growth to garner returns. That was the theory, the same theory than underlines trickle down – that if you give the wealthy more money, they will invest it in growth.
They did not. They invested all their money in financial assets! Instead of investing in job and wealth creating new factories and businesses, they bought bonds and stocks, fuelling the massive rally of the monetarily distorted 2010-2020 period, and creating a massive widening in wealth inequality – the rich got richer and the poor got poorer.
Exactly the same thing is going to happen under the Tories tax and benefits give away – the Fiscal Event on Friday. Money to the rich. The bulk of the policies she proposes are regressive and will merely give those with money to burn, more money to spend – which they will do by making themselves richer, buying more stocks and houses, while the poor get poorer. It will ultimately resolve nothing about the economy, levelling up or create wealth and jobs.
This is not a rant on behalf of the Labour Party – I might even join the liberals – but just a simple warning about what history shows will happen as a result of the regressive tax, stamp duty and bonus policies the new Truss government thinks will bailout Britain.
Perversely, it’s the reason the UK markets are going to remain distorted, and thus look more attractive than the underlying economic reality.
Being courageous in UK politics is taken to mean doing the right thing, even though its highly likely to end your political career. In contrast, Liz Truss is being pragmatic – doing something she hope will preserve hers…
EU/ENERGY CRISIS
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//PUTIN’S ANNOUNCEMENT
Putin calls on partial mobilization of citizens in a definite Ukraine war escalation. He is calling up 300,000 Russians to go to the front lines in the Ukraine.
Gold and silver rise/markets tumble.
(zerohedge0
Putin Announces Partial Mobilization In Ukraine War Escalation, Says West Wants To “Destroy Russia”
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 03:01 AM
In a nationwide address that was delayed from its prime-time Tuesday delivery and ahead of votes in four Ukraine regions to join Russia, on Wednesday morning Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization, while vowing to use all means necessary to defend Russia and pledged to annex the territories already occupied by Russia, raising the stakes in the seven-month-old conflict.
Calling the moves “urgent, necessary steps to defend the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Russia,” Putin said that Russia is fighting the full might of NATO. The US and its allies, he said, are seeking to “destroy” Russia.
The partial mobilization means that reservists will be drafted into military service, Putin said, starting immediately. The Armed Forces will draw on military reservists only, and those who have completed national service, the president said promising that they will be provided with additional training along with all the benefits due to people involved in active duty.
The measure is “sensible and necessary” under the circumstances, Putin stated, adding that he has already signed an order for the call-up to start immediately.
In his speech, Putin accused Kiev of backing away from peace talks, acting on direct orders from its Western allies. Instead of negotiating, the Ukrainian government has beefed up its military with NATO-trained troops, many of whom are neo-Nazi extremists, he said.
Putin also accused the west of using “nuclear blackmail” against Russia noting that “if its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will definitely use all the means at its disposal.” to defend Russian territory. “This is not a bluff.”
Russian forces sent to Ukraine in February have secured a large portion of territory claimed by the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as well as parts of Ukraine, and the resulting frontline stretches over 1,000km, according to the Russian president.
Putin also commented on the upcoming referendums in the two Donbass republics and two regions of Ukraine currently controlled to a large extent by Russian troops. The territories which include Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, have announced plebiscites on whether become part of Russia, with the ballots scheduled to start on Friday. Putin said his government will respect the outcome of the four referendums, and provide security for the voting process.
Some other notable highlights from Putin’s address:
the contracts for reserves last “until the end of the partial mobilization period” i.e. indefinitely
governors of Russian regions decide who and how many people get sent to the front
Putin’s full decree on mobilization can be found on the Kremlin website although it is blocked for most western browsers. It says mobilized Russians will be treated the same as contract troops. The criteria for exemption are age, health, being in jail, and working in the armaments industry. Details from the (google-translated) decree below:
In accordance with the federal laws of May 31, 1996 No. 61-FZ “On Defense”, of February 26, 1997 No. 31-FZ “On mobilization training and mobilization in the Russian Federation” and of March 28, 1998 No. 53- Federal Law “On military duty and military service” I decide:
1. To announce partial mobilization in the Russian Federation from September 21, 2022.
2. To carry out the call of citizens of the Russian Federation for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service by mobilization have the status of military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.
3. Establish that the level of pay for citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service by mobilization into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation corresponds to the level of pay for military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under a contract.
4. Contracts for the passage of military service concluded by military personnel continue to be valid until the end of the period of partial mobilization, with the exception of cases of dismissal of military personnel from military service on the grounds established by this Decree.
5. Establish during the period of partial mobilization the following grounds for the dismissal from military service of servicemen undergoing military service under a contract, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:
a) by age – upon reaching the age limit for military service;
b) for health reasons – in connection with their recognition by the military medical commission as unfit for military service, with the exception of military personnel who have expressed a desire to continue military service in military positions that can be replaced by the specified military personnel;
c) in connection with the entry into force of a court verdict on the imposition of a sentence of imprisonment.
6. To the Government of the Russian Federation:
a) to finance activities for partial mobilization;
b) take the necessary measures to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies during the period of partial mobilization.
8. The highest officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation shall ensure the conscription of citizens for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the number and within the time limits determined by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
9. Provide citizens of the Russian Federation working in organizations of the military-industrial complex with the right to deferment from conscription for military service for mobilization (for the period of work in these organizations). The categories of citizens of the Russian Federation who are granted the right to deferment and the procedure for granting it are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation.
10. This Decree comes into force from the day of its official publication.
Following Putin’s address, Russia’s minister of defense Sergei Shoigu also delivered a nationwide TV address, in which he said that the battlefield conditions in Ukraine as “difficult.”
“We are not fighting with Ukraine, but with the collective west ” he said, noting mobilization will be gradual, not one-time. He also added more nuclear threats: “All types of arms, including the nuclear triad, are fulfilling their tasks.”
Some more highlights from Shoigu’s address:
Calling up the reserves adds about 300,000 men to Russia’s forces
“These are not people who’ve never seen or heard anything about the army.”
Students are exempt and “only 1% of mobilization potential” will be used
Following the partial mobilization announcement, oil and gold surged…
… futures tumbled…
…the Bloomberg dollar index soared to a new record high…
The key debate is that if the spike protein is causing long term debilitating symptoms in COVID recovered persons, then it is 100% for sure that the synthetic spike from the vaccine that your cells produce (as part of the immunological response) will cause long term symptoms. This is the debate and the issue is that these symptoms can be catastrophic, even life ending. The spike protein is potentially being produced life-long non-stop. Can lead to immune exhaustion and collapse of the immune system. SOURCE 1:Severe fatigue as symptom of long COVID is characterized by increased expression of inflammatory genes in monocytes, increased serum pro-inflammatory cytokines, and increased CD8+ T-lymphocytes. A putative dysregulation of the immune-brain axis, the coagulation process, and auto-inflammation to explain the diversity of long COVID symptoms “Long COVID with fatigue represented a severe variant with many symptoms (median 9 [IQR 5.0-10.0] symptoms) and signs of cognitive failure (41%) and depression (>24%). Symptoms persisted up to one year follow-up. Fatigued patients showed increased expression of inflammatory genes in monocytes, increased serum IL-6, TNF-α, galectin-9, and CXCL10, and increased CD8+ T-lymphocytes compared to HCs…Moderately severe patients showed reduced CD45RO- naive CD4+ T-lymphocytes and CD25+FOXP3+ regulatory CD4+ T-lymphocytes and limited monocyte and serum (galectin-9) inflammation. Mild patients showed monocyte and serum (IL-6, galectin-9) inflammation and decreased CD4+ T-lymphocyte subsets (T-helper 1 cells). Conclusion. Long COVID with fatigue is associated with many concurrent and persistent symptoms up to one year after hospitalization and with clear signs of low grade inflammation and increased CD8+ T-lymphocytes.”See
Immune imprinting, breadth of variant recognition, and germinal center response in human SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in CELL, author Röltgen et al.These authors showed that spike persisted at least 60 days post vaccine. This is important for CDC told us that LNP, mRNA, and spike dissipates and dissolves near immediate post vaccine. We long argued no, that it will persist life-long and this is and was the danger for no long-term safety studies were performed, in fact, the typical vaccine study lasted 10 weeks. So we have no idea what persons who took the vaccine will face in the medium and long-term future.“Immunohistochemical staining for spike antigen in mRNA-vaccinated patient LNs varied between individuals but showed abundant spike protein in GCs 16 days post-second dose, with spike antigen still present as late as 60 days post-second dose. Spike antigen localized in a reticular pattern around the GC cells, similar to staining for follicular dendritic cell processes.”See also research by Patterson et al who showed that spike is found 15 months post infection, and one can infer same for vaccine. Again, we say it is life-long and this can have a devastating effect on host immune system: Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine
The sanctions are continuing to spark mayhem in global shipping.
(zerohedge)
Western Sanctions Against Russia Spark Mayhem In Shipping As New Threat Emerges
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 06:55 AM
The unilateral sanctions that Western countries unleashed on Russia have caused energy supply disruptions and energy hyperinflation across the world. Europe is rejiggering its energy supply chain away from Russia as it sources energy products elsewhere. EU countries are scrambling for tankers to import energy products from abroad, which has led to a surge in global tanker shipping rates.
Since slapping Russia with sanctions, the West has realized that global supply chains are fragile. Even before the Ukraine war, supply chains struggled due to uneven Covid economic recovery, trade war conflicts, and increasing geopolitical risks.
As such, the decision to rejigger Europe’s entire energy supply chain away from Russia amid all the chaos in the world has created a shortage of vessels to carry essential fuels to energy-stricken regions this winter.
Bloomberg reported that Europe is importing liquefied natural gas, diesel, and crude from far away regions that keep tankers in transit for extended periods and delay return to service for other critical shipping lanes. Shipping experts warn this is sparking the latest surge in global tanker freight rates.
LNG freight rates are at elevated levels for this time of year and threaten to surpass last year’s winter peak. The cost of shipping a US oil cargo to China is at the highest since 2020, while transporting a cargo of naphtha petrochemical feedstock from the Middle East to Japan costs more than twice as much as it did in March, according to data from the Baltic Exchange.
The ship shortage threatens to impact Asian economies that import oil and gas from the US, as they may find it difficult to get spare cargoes at short notice if the weather turns extremely cold this winter, said traders and shipowners. Even petrochemical feedstock shipments are becoming more expensive to transport, further burdening buyers grappling with sluggish demand for chemicals as the pace of manufacturing slows.
Concerns are growing that the limited availability of LNG vessels this winter may cause cargo disruptions.
Shipowners are demanding LNG carriers back to the Freeport facility in Texas ahead of restarting operations in November after a fire shuttered the plant in early June.
“What we’ve seen in shipping this year has been remarkable as a result of the war in Ukraine,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a freight market analytics platform.
Western sanctions on Russia is the culprit behind energy chaos worldwide and soaring tanker rates, and risks increase of limited ship availability to hire this winter. What a mess this has become.
end
Softening global demand is causing container spot rates to fall much steeper and less orderly than expected
(zerohedge)
Fall In Container Spot Rates “Much Steeper”, “Less Orderly” Than Expected
Shipping liner executives predicted a continued drop in spot rates during their latest quarterly calls, while offering soothing assurances to investors that the fall would be gradual. Maersk CFO Patrick Jany said it would be a “progressive erosion,” not “a one-day drop.” Matson CEO Matt Cox emphasized rates were “adjusting slowly” in an “orderly marketplace” and not “falling off a cliff.”
The decline may indeed be fairly steady, as opposed to the sudden, violent swings seen in bulk commodity shipping. Yet spot container rates appear to be falling more rapidly than some liner executives expected.
Stifel analyst Ben Nolan recently met with executives of Matson. “In our meetings, management indicated that … the downward softening has been much steeper and less orderly in the past two months,” Nolan wrote in a client note on Sunday.
Matson introduced its third trans-Pacific service — China-California Express — in June 2021 to meet booming demand. During the Aug. 1 conference call, Cox said CCX would run through October. It didn’t.
“As a result [of softening demand] the company has completed the last sailing of the temporary CCX service ahead of the targeted October conclusion date,” said Nolan.
Steepest decline in Asia-West Coast market
“Spot rates continue to plummet,” said Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal on Monday. “The Shanghai-U.S. West Coast corridor has seen the most significant adjustment.”
The Freightos Baltic Daily Index China-West Coast assessment has fallen 76% over the past six months, to $3,799 per forty-foot equivalent unit as of Friday. The Drewry Shanghai-Los Angeles assessment is down 57% in the same period.
In the week reported Thursday, the Drewry rate for Shanghai-LA fell another 11% week on week. The prior week, it had dropped 14%. “There is no clarity with respect to when or where market rates may bottom,” said Nolan.
More blank sailings predicted after Golden Week
The initial COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. slashed import demand in the second quarter of 2020. Ocean carriers were able to “blank” (cancel) enough sailings to bring capacity down in line with demand. Carriers successfully stopped the spot-rate slide.
What happened in that earlier period is frequently cited as proof that carriers can blank sailings in the future if demand falls too low, putting a floor on rates. “We would expect ships to be removed from vessel services,” said Mørkedal.
Sources told Platts they’re looking to China’s Golden Week holiday (Oct. 1-7) as a potential turning point. Market participants are “bracing for a blank sailing program to be announced by carriers,” reported Platts. “Most sources expect the period immediately after Golden Week to be marked by a tonnage reshuffling as carriers look to balance capacity against the evolving marketplace.”
Spot rates still nowhere near past levels
Looking back to Q2 2020, the Drewry Global Composite Index fell to a low of $1,446 per FEU in late April. Blank sailings by carriers kept rates from falling even lower amid lockdowns.
Prior to the pandemic, Drewry’s global index averaged $1,474 per FEU in 2018-2019. Several carriers lost money in those years.
As of last Thursday, Drewry’s global index was at $4,942 per FEU, still 3.4 times higher than the pre-COVID average and the COVID lockdown low — even after a 44% decline over the past half year, an average drop of $650 per FEU per month.
If this same pace of decline were to continue, the Drewry global index would not reach pre-COVID levels until mid-Q1 2023.
If the same pace of decline continued for the next three months, the index would still be double pre-COVID levels.
Contract rates support carrier profits
Furthermore, a decline in spot rates does not have the same effect on ocean carriers as it did pre-pandemic because of changes in the contract market.
Carriers have more of their volume on annual contracts. In 2019, Maersk said it had only 46% of its long-haul business on long-term contracts. It now has 71% secured for one or more years.
Contract rates are also dramatically higher than they used to be. While a portion of this year’s contract business will be renegotiated, or not honored, the remainder will allow carriers to offset spot-business declines. Chart source: Xeneta
Ocean carrier Zim said its contract rates this year were double 2021’s. Hikes of 50% or more were reported by carriers in 2021 versus 2020. Xeneta publishes an index that tracks long-term freight rates. Its global index hit 453 points in August, about 4.5 times pre-COVID levels. The index is up 121% year on year.
Thus, not only do spot rates still have a long way to fall before they’re back where they started — even at the steeper-than-expected pace of decline — they’re also overshadowed by contract rates when it comes to near-term carrier profits and shipper costs.
Head epidemiologist PHAC did not tell Canadian government to do that, but the Liberal Government of Canada, Trudeau, demanded it; PHAC told Trudeau the VAX is not effective, yet he did not care
Imagine, the Prime Minister of Canada, this idiot, this moron, this reckless person, made a decision for Canadians and anyone entering Canada, and even leaving, or travel inside Canada, that you are forced to get a COVID gene injection. No science. None! He was told by PHAC this was not needed, the governments own science agency, PHAC, only recommended possibly masking, spacing on the plane, a quarantine area if someone was sick, and she said under oath, the reason was that the scientific evidence did not support that it would be effective, that the vaccine would NOT be effective. It was a clear political decision. Violating Canadians fundamental Charter Rights.
I wonder how many police and military and border agents in Canada know how many of them are vaccine injured? In harms way.
Can you imagine how many died etc. and no one could see their family, travel etc.
“There had been a tendency earlier on for people to put patients on ventilators early…patients were deteriorating very quickly,” “That’s something that most of us have stepped away from doing”
32 Young Canadian Doctors “Died Suddenly” in the Past 16 Months While Fully COVID-19 Vaccinated
September 20, 2022 1:02 pm
I have now tracked 32 Canadian doctor sudden deaths (thank you to all who contributed). These doctors were actively practicing medicine & were healthy prior to taking illegally mandated COVID-19 Vaccines (2, 3 or 4 doses). I’ve sent a letter to Canadian Medical Association (CMA) Presidents Dr.Alika Lafontaine & Dr.Katharine Smart, both of whom supported COVID-19 Vaccine mandates on all of Canada’s 92,000 doctors and I urged them to call for IMMEDIATE termination of all COVID-19 Vaccine mandates in Canada’s healthcare, as well as Investigations & Public Inquiries into these sudden deaths. CMA cannot continue to ignore this catastrophe. Please circulate!
EU Begins Europe-Wide Investigation into 700% to 1600% Increase in Excess Deaths Among Children Since EMA Approval of COVID Vaccine
September 20, 2022 4:29 pm
An exclusive investigation carried out by the team here at The Exposé has forced the European Union’s official statistics department to begin a Europe-wide investigation into why there has been a significant increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 since the European Medicines Agency approved the Covid-19 injection for children. On the 29th of August 2022, we exclusively revealed that official mortality figures for Europe showed a shocking 691% increase in excess deaths among children up to week 33 of 2022 since the European Medicines Agency extended the emergency use authorisation of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for use in children aged 12 to 15 in May 2021. Before this decision by the European Medicines Agency, deaths among children in 2021 were below the expected rate. But following the emergency use authorisation, we discovered that excess deaths among children had risen by a deeply troubling 1,599% by the end of the year compared to the 2017 to 2020 average. Now, three weeks after our investigation, EuroMOMO, which provides the statistics, has been forced to officially acknowledge the elevated excess mortality among children and has opened a Europe-wide investigation into the possible causes.
What is going on? We are witnessing too many fires and too many explosions.
(zerohedge)
“Explosion” Rocks BP Refinery In Ohio
TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 10:03 PM
The BP-Husky Toledo refinery in Oregon, Ohio, was rocked by an “explosion” around 1830 local time, according to local news WTOL, citing witnesses.
Videos posted on social media show the fire at the BP refinery.
WTOL learned at least two people were severely burned. The cause of the fire remains yet to be determined.
Chris Howard was waiting to hear from his father who works at the plant Tuesday night. He received a phone call around 7 p.m. from a friend who works security at the refinery.
“He said it was like some sort of explosion,” Howard said. “He told me there was just a big rumble at the refinery, lots of fire everywhere. He said it’s the worst he’s seen. Lots of people injured.” — WTOL
BP’s website explained the refinery “process up to 160,000 barrels of crude oil each day, providing the Midwest with gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, asphalt, and other products.”
It added: “On a daily basis the refinery can produce 3.8 million gallons of gasoline, 1.3 million gallons of diesel fuel and 600,000 gallons of jet fuel.”
*Developing…
end
The author notes inventories quite low and demand exceedingly high. Expect natural gas prices to rise with a gas shortage looming
As natural gas demand around the world breaks new records, U.S. shale producers are struggling to keep up with demand.
While natural gas prices in the United States fell after a railway strike was averted last week, it looks likely that prices both at home and abroad will spike this winter.
A hotter-than-expected summer and a lack of alternative energy sources have left U.S. inventories below the seasonal average.
Last week, the media rushed to report that natural gas prices in the United States had fallen sharply after trade unions and railway companies reached a tentative deal that averted a potentially devastating strike.
Indeed, natural gas prices fell by nearly a dollar per million British thermal units, helped by a respectable build in inventories. And yet, inventories remain below the seasonal average, exports are running at record rates, and producers are beginning to struggle to meet demand, both at home and abroad.
Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a recent column that domestic and international gas consumption had risen to record highs, and shale producers—the ones that account for the bulk of U.S. natural gas output—were having a hard time catching up with this demand.
Meanwhile, although higher on a weekly basis, inventories remained at the second-lowest for this time of the year for the last 12 years, Reuters’ market analyst noted. He also added there were no signs of any improvement in the level of inventories despite the rise in prices.
None of this suggests lower prices for natural gas are coming to either the United States or international markets as the northern hemisphere heads into winter. On the contrary, the latest figures suggest more financial pain for gas consumers. And they confirm, to an extent, forecasts made earlier this year.
In the spring, the principals of investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg said U.S. gas prices will converge with international prices towards the end of 2022. They noted something few other analysts tend to mention: the concentration of much of U.S. gas production in a handful of fields, with just two—Marcellus and Haynesville—accounting for as much as 40 percent of the total.
The Permian contributes another 12 percent of the U.S. total gas output, and the rig count in the Permian has been down for two weeks in a row, according to the latest data. Less drilling means less associated gas to add to the national total.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, electricity generation in the United States is seen reaching a record high this year, Kemp noted in his column, driven by the post-pandemic economic rebound. A hotter summer also contributed. A cold winter would certainly push gas consumption even higher.
Another contributor is the lack of alternative sources of electricity generation: coal plants are being retired, and droughts in many parts of the country have compromised its hydropower capacity, the Reuters analyst also noted.
While this is happening at home, demand for gas continues strong across the globe, too, as everyone seeks to stock up on fuel for the winter. U.S. energy companies are exporting liquefied natural gas at record rates. And disgruntlement at home is beginning to rear its head.
“We appreciate that the [Joe] Biden administration has been working with European allies to expand fuel exports to Europe. A similar effort should be made for New England,” a group of governors from New England wrote in a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm this summer, per a Financial Times report.
The governors then went on to call on the administration to make sure there was enough LNG for American consumers, essentially asking politicians to reduce LNG exports. This does not bode well for balance in the U.S. gas market.
In May, John Kilduff from Again Capital told CNBC he expected gas prices to top $10 per mmBtu and maybe reach $12 to $14.
“This is a commodity that trades parabolically a lot. It’s no stranger to parabolic moves up and down. It’s incredibly volatile, and it also has the ability to reset. We could get to $10 or $12 and if you have a cool August, then you could be down below $8 again,” he said at the time.
The Energy Information Administration this month revised its gas price forecast for the full year upwards, seeing the commodity average $9 per mmBtu in the final quarter before falling to $6 per mmBtu in 2023. The decline would come as a result of rising local gas production, the EIA noted.
In the meantime, however, until this increase in production materializes to a degree that begins to affect prices, there seems to be only one way they will be going: up. With heating season around the corner in both Europe and the United States and with a lot of people in both places using gas for heating, the price outlook for gas does not look good from a consumer’s perspective. It does look good from a gas exporter’s perspective, however.
It is unlikely that U.S. gas prices will climb anywhere near European levels, but they are up by a whopping 300 percent from a few years ago when gas was cheap because it was abundant. That sort of price increase affects everything along the supply chain that involves electricity produced using gas, sending ripples across the economy. And the more gas utilities use for lack of reliable alternatives, the longer the energy-driven inflation will continue.
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 0.99073 DOWN 0.0064 /EUROPE BOURSES // MOSTLY GREEN
USA/ YEN 144.03 UP .447 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES
GBP/USA 1.1339 DOWN 0.0041
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.23 PTS OR 0.17%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN336.60PTS OR 1.79%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.55% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN336.60 PTS OR 1.79%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.23 PTS OR 0.17%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 375.29 PTS OR 1.36%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1676.80
silver:$19.58
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 110.47 UP 53 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.0490
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0624
TURKISH LIRA: 18.32 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1/2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.575% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.577 DOWN 1/2 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 110.77 UP .83 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 44.98 PTS OR 0.63%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 96.32 POINTS OR 0.76%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 51.86 PTS OR 0.87%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 0.90OR 0.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 262.06PTS OR 1.20%
WTI Oil price 83.28 12: EST
Brent Oil: 90.04 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 60.43 DOWN 0 AND 3/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.893
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 0.98620 DOWN .01116 OR 112 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1287 DOWN .0092 or 92 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.86 UP .282//YEN DOWN 28 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3437 UP 0.0073 (CDN dollar, DOWN 73 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 83;46
Brent OIL: 90.20
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.32
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.69 DOWN 0 AND 9/100 ROUBLES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 313.45 PTS OR 1.01 %
Before we get to the main event, we note that during the Congressional hearings this morning, JPMorgan CEO offered a reality check for policy-makers and pollyannas:
“…there’s a small chance of a soft landing, and then there’s also a chance there’s a mild recession. There’s a chance it could be much worse given the war in Ukraine and all the other global political uncertainties. He says everyone should prepare for all these possibilities.”
“Many Americans are feeling the pain, and consumer confidence continues to drop.”
“I don’t think you can spend $6 trillion and not expect inflation”
The Fed hiked 75bps (as expected) but drastically shifted its rate trajectory expectations in a hawkish direction…
Powell’s press conference offered some hope for bulls (data dependent), but he did warn “the historical record cautions against premature rate-cuts,” and admitted that it is “very likely there will be a softening in the labor market.”
For good form, and to offer the algos some hope, Powell reiterated that The Fed “may slow the pace of hikes at some point to assess effects,” but as a reminder, the dot-plot tells you what The Fed members’ forecasts are and they don’t see any ‘easing’ anytime soon.
Finally, Jane Edmondson, CEO of EQM Capital summarized the precarious situation:
“Today’s 75 bps hike was obviously in line with expectations. But here is what is worrying me and others –
1) Fed QT started in September.
2) There is a lag effect of these rate hikes, which has not been fully digested by the economy yet.
3) Concern the Fed is oversteering (that is what Gundlach calls it) and will drive us into recession.
And I question if these rate hikes can even control inflation.
Housing is the perfect example. One of the biggest increases in CPI in August was housing – which of course if being driven by higher interest rates.
I don’t have a lot of confidence that the Fed’s actions are going to be the cure for inflation. Maybe 4-5% inflation is the new normal. And that would be OK in the short-term.”
As Powell admitted “there isn’t a painless way to get inflation behind us.”
So where did the equity market end today (remember historically the ‘day of’ has been bid and the ‘day after’ offered)? The algos had it after Powell’s “pause” comments but then he stole the jam out of the market’s donut at the end of the presser by admitting that “the housing market may have to go through a correction.”
All the majors closed at the lows of the day…
The S&P 500 broke back below 3800 – its lowest since 7/14…
Short-squeeze attempts were made at the start of Powell’s Presser… but failed (for the 4th straight day)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were pummeled after Powell admitted a housing correction was coming (and they weren’t helped by the inverting-erer yield curve)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bond markets were just as jumpy with yield flying all over the place but settling with a major flattening of the curve as 2Y yields jumped 7bps and 30Y yields fell 8bps…
Source: Bloomberg
A dramatic flattening of the yield curve…
Source: Bloomberg
German yield curve 5s30s tumbled to the most-inverted ever.
Source: Bloomberg
UST yield curve 2s30s collapsed to its most-inverted since 2000
Source: Bloomberg
The 2s10s curve hit -52bps intraday, very close its most inverted since 1982 (during Volcker)…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields topped 4.00% for the first time since Oct 2007 (hitting 4.11% intraday high before fading back)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar had another big rally day – after some flight to safety bid from Putin. The post-FOMC performance ended going higher but was very choppy…
Source: Bloomberg
The euro plunged further below parity with the dollar after Putin’s comments… and went further on Powell…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended the day unchanged, holding $19,000 after some wild rips and dips intraday…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil ended the day practically unchanged as the global war premium from Putin was erased by inflation-fighting fears…
Gold surged back up near $1700 – erasing the post-CPI plunge…
Finally, The Fed continued to rapidly adjust upward its 2023 (terminal) rate expectations…
And the market is now pricing in 75bps for November, 50bps for December, and 25bps for Feb 2023… pushing the terminal rate above 4.60% (and also sending subsequent rate-cut expectations soaring)…
Source: Bloomberg
Simply put, the market is calling The Fed’s bluff in 2023 – pricing in rate-cuts (after The Fed triggers a recession) while The Fed still expects rates to stay higher for longer…
Source: Bloomberg
We leave you with this this take from Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington:
“This is supposed to send the message, we mean it this time, we’re not pussyfooting or fooling or messing around this time. The mistake up to now has been to walk on eggshells in fear of a recession. The higher unemployment forecasts are fair warning they will inflict pain and this has just begun.”
Just remember the mantra of the last decade – don’t fight The Fed. Place your bets.
I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//
Scary!!
2Y Treasury Yields Top 4.00% For First Time Since Oct 2007
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 11:06 AM
For the first time since October 2007, the yield on 2Y US Treasury bonds has topped 4.00%…
…having soared over 60bps since Fed Chair Powell gave his hyper-hawkish speech at Jackson Hole…
Meanwhile, the terminal rate for Fed rate-hikes has risen to 4.52% this morning, expected in March 2023…
Do we really think The Fed can get there without folding to political pressure or flip-flopping to abate risk-asset carnage?
As we noted earlier, how do we think Elizabeth Warren is going to react to this?
Finally, which would you rather own – 2Y notes backed by the US govt paying 4% or the S&P 500 paying 1.7%?
TINA is dead… and remember all of this is priced into the rates market already…
Maybe not so much the stock market.
Meanwhile, the German yield curve is the most inverted… ever…
END
THIS AFTERNOON//FED ANNOUNCEMENT
Fed Hikes Rates Another 75bps, Sends Hawkish ‘Higher For Longer’ Signal With DotPlot
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 02:05 PM
A lot has happened since the last FOMC meeting on July 27th. Fed Pivot narratives have imploded along with risk-asset prices as ‘peak inflation’ guesses failed to appear and at the same time growth fears were resurrected prompting growing fears of stagflation and a post-Jackson-Hole uber-hawkish Fed.
The dollar has been on a one-way trip higher since the last Fed meeting while pretty much everything else has tumbled – stocks and gold are almost exactly down the same while bonds have been a bloodbath… (red dashed line is Jackson Hole)
Source: Bloomberg
Focusing on bonds, 2Y yields are up over 100bps since the last Fed meeting (notably underperforming the long-end and flattening the yield curve dramatically). The two inflection points are Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and last week’s CPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
And thus, Financial Conditions have dramatically tightened since the last FOMC (helped by J-Hole of course) to new cycle tights…
Source: Bloomberg
The market’s expectation for The Fed’s Terminal Rate has soared a stunning 125bps from 3.25% to over 4.50% (and at the same time, subsequent, recession-inspired, rate-cuts expectations have risen too)…
Source: Bloomberg
Most (94/96) economists expected a 75bps hike today, but the market left the option open for 100bps, pricing in a 20% chance of that mega hike…
Source: Bloomberg
Today we also get new DotPlots and inflation/growth estimates… and as Goldman noted, “the dot plot probably matters more” than the rate-hike size. Ahead of today’s shift, the market is dramatically more hawkish than The Fed’s “dots”…
*FED HIKES 75 BPS, REPEATS IT ANTICIPATES ONGOING RATE HIKES ARE APPROPRIATE
The new DotPlot is very hawkish
MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS RATES 4.4% AT END-2022, AT 4.6% IN 2023, 3.9% IN 2024
After today’s hike, The Fed Funds rate will have increased by the most amount since the six months ending March 1981.
* * *
Read the full redline below:
ii) USA DATA/
This should knock Atlanta Fed Q 3 GDP down below zero growth. USA existing home sales sink due to affordability
(zerohedge)
US Existing Home Sales Sink For 7th Straight Month
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 10:06 AM
Today we get our first glimpse of the carnage in the housing market from August. With mortgage rates having soared and homebuilder sentiment tumbling (and permits plunging), it should be no surprise that existing home sales were expected to fall for the 7th straight month (-2.3% MoM vs -5.9% MoM in July).
Somewhat surprisingly, existing home sales ‘only’ fell 0.4% MoM in August (from a revised 5.7% MoM drop in July), but that is still 7 consecutive drops. This left existing home sales down 19.87% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the longest streak of MoM sales declines since Oct 2007.
The Existing Home Sales SAAR fell to 4.80mm – the lowest since
These are based on closings that likely occurred in June/July.
Despite declining sales, “we are seeing no increase in inventory on net,” Yun said.
“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically-low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”
The median selling price rose 7.7% from a year earlier to $389,500. The annual increase was the smallest since June 2020.
After hitting a record $413,800 in June, prices have fallen on a monthly basis. The August decline was broad across price points and regions.
First-time buyers accounted for 29% of all transactions in August, matching the July share.
iii) USA economic commentaries
An extremely important commentary on the dollar being the world’s problem
(zerohedge)
‘The Dollar Is Once Again The World’s Problem’ – Chinese State Media Urges ‘De-Dollarization’ Amid Fed’s “Financial Looting”
TUESDAY, SEP 20, 2022 – 08:25 PM
On the eve of The Fed’s big decision to hike rates 75bps or 100bps in an effort to shock the system and tamp down out of control inflation, no lesser entity than the CCP-backed Global Times penned an editorial attacking US monetary policy, entitled: “The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world.”
The editorial begins by noting that tomorrow’s rate-hike will likely further strengthen the US Dollar, which “for many countries in the world,” China says, “might be the beginning of another nightmare.”
“A super strong US dollar and the fall of other currencies will, to a certain extent, ease the scorching inflation in the US economy, but the world will have to pay for it.“
And the dollar’s strength has pushed Asian FX markets down hard to their weakest since 2003…
The Global Times then exclaims that since the end of World War II, the US has used dollar hegemony to carry out “financial looting” or “export crises” against other countries several times.
“As a widely popular phrase in the West goes, the US enjoys the exorbitant privileges created by the dollar and the deficit without tears, and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations…
… while the political elites in Washington boast of the “myth of the American system” and take credit for “alleviating the crisis,” thousands of poor families around the world are being trampled by them.“
And as the yuan tumbles, and Beijing’s attempts (through strong yuan fixes at a minimum) to defy gravity…
…the editorial points the finger directly:
” Today, the dollar is once again the world’s problem. In a sense, it’s hard to believe that the “prosperity” of the US is clean and moral…
…Washington keeps laying mines but never removes them, which will eventually explode the US itself. The incompetence of US financial policymakers has been exposed by the consecutive interest rate hikes that have contributed to the abnormal appreciation of the US dollar with the purpose of defusing the severe inflation. “
Now the anxiety and insecurity brought by the US dollar to the world has heralded the beginning of the decline of its hegemony – regarding Washington’s insatiable exploitation, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and other regions have explored the path of “de-dollarization,” leading to the inevitable diversification of the international monetary system…
“…The instability and fragility of international financial markets have once again become prominent. It is precisely at such times that the international community should be more determined to cooperate and build a reliable, systemic and long-term multilateral international financial system. This cannot wait.“
Facebook Parent Meta, Google Quietly Cutting Staff
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 01:15 PM
As growth stalls and competition intensifies, Facebook parent Meta has begun quietly cutting staff by reorganizing departments, while giving ‘reorganized’ employees a narrow window to apply for other roles within the company, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing current and former managers familiar with the matter.
By shuffling people around, the company achieves staffing cuts “while forestalling the mass issuance of pink slips.”
The game of musical chairs is thought to be a prelude to deeper cuts, as Meta looks to trim costs by at least 10% over the next few months according to people familiar with the company’s plans – which will also include savings from cuts to overhead and consulting budgets, but to a much lesser degree than reducing headcount.
“We’ve been public about the need for our teams to shift to meet these challenges,” said Meta spokesman Tracy Clayton, adding that providing displaced employees with opportunities to apply for new jobs is a means of retaining talent that the company might otherwise lose.
Among some Meta employees, the process of reapplying for jobs within a limited window internally is known as a sort of human-resources purgatory they call the “30 Day List.”
Meta, as of last year the name of Facebook’s parent company, has long had a rule that employees whose roles are eliminated are subject to termination if they can’t find a new job internally within a month. Historically, it was usually only employees that were deemed undesirable who failed to land new positions. Now, affected employees and managers say, workers with good reputations and strong performance reviews are being pushed out on a regular basis. -WSJ
The company reported having 83,553 employees at the end of Q2, up 32% from a year earlier.
“Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said at a company town hall in June. Meanwhile, the company’s head of engineering ordered managers to identified employees who were ‘coasting’ – and place them on remediation plans before they are terminated.
Google, meanwhile, has been requiring ‘reorganized’ employees to similarly apply for new jobs if they want to remain at the company – telling around half of the more than 100 employees at the company’s startup incubator Area 120 that they have 90 days to find other roles within the company, according to people familiar with the decision.
Over 1,400 Google employees signed a March petition demanding that the company extend a 60-day period to 180 days to allow over 100 employees in the cloud computing division to find new roles, citing “barriers to transfer that many workers face.”
According to a Google spokesman, almost 95% of employees who showed interest in staying with the company found new roles within the grace period. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reported having 174,014 employees at the end of Q2, up 20.8% from the previous year.
As the Journal notes, Silicon Valley staff reductions follow a ‘breakneck’ hiring spree last year, when engineers were in tight supply. But with the economic climate cooling ‘and the digital-ad market in turmoil,’ things have changed.
Just one question; will Facebook’s impending layoffs be “anti-racist” like Twilio?
SWAMP STORIES
Whistleblower: FBI Manipulating J6 Cases To Support Biden Narrative Of National ‘Extremism’ Crisis
According to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the ranking Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, an FBI whistleblower has come forward with information about how the FBI is manipulating cases related to the Capitol riot to create “the illusion” that domestic violent extremism is a pervasive problem in the United States.(AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File)
Just The News reports that Jordan wrote a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray stating that “the ‘manipulative case-file practice’ was being conducted by the bureau’s Washington field office, which was instructing local FBI offices to open up cases on their books that were in fact simply related to the Capitol breach.”
Jordan wrote, “The FBI’s case categorization creates the illusion that threats from [domestic violent extremism] are present in jurisdictions across the nation, when in reality they all stem from the same related investigation concerning the actions at the Capitol on January 6.”
“Such an artificial case categorization scheme allows FBI leadership to misleadingly point to ‘significant’ increases in DVE threats nationwide,” Jordan added.
Jordan says that the whistleblower’s claims are “consistent with disclosures we have received from other whistleblowers that high-ranking FBI officials — including a senior WFO [Washington Field Office] official — are pressing front-line agents to categorize cases as DVE [domestic violent extremism] matters to fit a political narrative.”
The false narrative that the FBI is attempting to create curiously aligns with the narrative being pushed by the Biden administration. Earlier this month, Biden delivered a primetime speech warning about the threat posed by “MAGA Republicans” — whom he called a threat to our democracy.
In order to create the illusion that domestic violent extremism is a bigger problem than it really is, the FBI is also diverting resources away from investigations of other crimes.
“The whistleblower disclosed that the FBI is sacrificing its other important federal law-enforcement duties to pursue January 6 investigations,” Jordan wrote. “The whistleblower recalled, for example, being told that child sexual abuse material investigations were no longer an FBI priority and should be referred to local law enforcement agencies.”
The politicization of the FBI by Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland has already come under scrutiny in the way of the raid on Mar-a-Lago last month. Based on this latest whistleblower revelation, it’s clear that the politicization and weaponization of the FBI are even worse than we thought.
end
Lindell To Sue FBI To Return His Phone, Or Have Special Master Appointed
My Pillow’s CEO Mike Lindell is set to file a lawsuit against the FBI and the U.S. government after federal agents seized his phone last week as part of a federal grand jury investigation run out of Colorado.
The agents cornered Lindell in three cars on Sept. 13 as he was driving back from a hunting trip in Iowa. In a search warrant they handed him, authorities outlined an expansive list of information they were seeking from Lindell’s phone relating to allegations of fraud during the 2020 presidential election. It also named a number of individuals allegedly implicated in the 2021 breach of election software in Mesa County, Colorado.
The search warrant cites potential breaches of three U.S. laws relating to identity theft, intentional damage to a protected computer, and conspiracy to comment on such offenses. Some of the information to be seized concerned the alleged tampering of voting machines and the “attempt to impair the integrity or availability” of the voting system.
Alleged Violation of Rights
The search and seizure warrant, Lindell and his lawyer Kurt Olsen argue, violated the businessman’s First, Fourth, and Fifth Amendment rights, which safeguards free speech, protects citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures, and shields citizens from criminal prosecution without due process, respectively. It also brought reputational harm and millions of dollars in monetary damage, Lindell told The Epoch Times ahead of the filing.
The lawsuit, to be filed on Sept. 20 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota, will seek the return of the seized phone that Lindell had relied on, in lieu of a laptop, to run his five businesses.
“That specific device was everything for me,” Lindell told The Epoch Times, describing his phone as a “filing cabinet.” The FBI wouldn’t allow him to back up his phone, he said in a previous interview.
Lindell is now trying to reconfigure everything as much as he can, the businessman said. “There are so many apps now I don’t have the passwords to, also my hearing aids, everything run off that,” he said, referring to the fact that his hearing aids had previously been connected to his phone.
The search warrant listed more than 20 types of data to be taken from Lindell’s phone, including the geographical location of Lindell and other named “co-conspirators” in the search warrant since Nov. 1, 2020, records indicating their state of mind regarding the alleged offenses, and the identity of any individuals he communicated with on the matter.
Lindell’s attorney said the lawsuit will seek to bar the U.S. government from using this information, and failing that, requests the appointment of an independent arbiter known as a special master to review the data for privileged information to be withheld from authorities.
“In any data that they access, we’re going to suppress the release of any information that they unlawfully obtained, and in the alternative, we’re going to ask for a special master to be appointed to review and segregate the data on his phone from what was required under the warrant,” Olsen told The Epoch Times.
Monetary Loss
The consequences of the FBI action were not limited to the loss of access to critical data, Lindell added.
Four companies who partnered Lindell’s MyStore, an online marketplace featuring American-made products, have backed out of agreements over the federal investigation—either “out of fear” or out of the belief that the businessman has “done something wrong,” Lindell said. A bank last week also informed Lindell that they will stop financing one of MyPillow’s products.
New York AG Sues Trump, Alleges ‘Fraudulent’ Asset Valuations
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 12:40 PM
After years of probing, New York Attorney General Letitica James has sued former President Donald Trump for allegedly using fraudulent asset valuations.
According to a Wednesday suit filed in New York state court against Trump, the Trump Organization and three of Trump’s children who serve as senior executives, the defendants “engaged in numerous acts of fraud and misrepresentation in the preparation of Mr. Trump’s annual statements of financial condition,” and committed acts of fraud that “were approved at the highest levels of the Trump Organization—including by Mr. Trump himself.”
According to Bloomberg, James is seeking around $250 million in disgorgement from the defendants, and demands that the Trump Organization be barred from engaging in commercial real estate acquisitions in New York for a period of five years. She also asks that Trump and his children be barred from serving as officers or directors of any corporation in the state, and wants an independent monitor appointed to oversee compliance, financial reporting, and valuations at the Trump Organization.
Though her case is civil, James said she believed her investigation had uncovered federal criminal liability and had referred the matter to the Manhattan US attorney’s office.
Alan Futerfas, a lawyer for the Trump Organization, didn’t immediately return an email seeking comment about James’s suit. Ronald Fischetti, a lawyer for Trump, didn’t immediately return an email seeking comment.
James’s lawsuit is the latest legal threat to Trump as he weighs another run for the presidency in 2024. Trump has been under intense scrutiny ever since his Florida home was searched last month by FBI agents who unearthed highly classified documents taken from the White House. The Justice Department continues to probe his actions preceding the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol as well. -Bloomberg
The New York case comes just before the Trump Organization is scheduled to face trial next month on charges of criminal tax fraud.
A Trump spokesman has denounced the NY lawsuit as a political act.
Trump, meanwhile, called it ‘another witch hunt.’
end
KING REPORT
The King Report September 21, 2022 Issue 6848
Independent View of the News
The Riksbank (Sweden) shocked the markets with a 100bp rate hike on Tuesday.
Sweden’s central bank launches 100 basis point rate hike, says ‘inflation is too high’ In a statement, the central bank said soaring inflation was “undermining households’ purchasing power and making it more difficult for both companies and households to plan their finances.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/swedens-central-bank-launches-100-basis-point-rate-hike.html
Japan’s inflation hits near 8-year high, stays above BOJ’s target (2%) Aug nationwide core CPI up 2.8% yr/yr vs forecast +2.7% https://t.co/TzajV0GwVZ
German PPI Hits New All-Time High (+45.8% y/y) as Electricity Prices Soar German producer prices rose by 7.9% in August, and were up 45.8% from a year earlier, statistics office Destatis said. Both figures were records in the 83-year history of the Federal Republic… Economists had expected the PPI to slow to only 1.6% on the month and 37.1% on the year… Energy prices as a whole were up by 139% from a year earlier and by 20.4% from July. Electricity prices in particular rose 175%. However, the increases weren’t limited to energy: prices for intermediate goods rose 17.5% and prices for capital goods rose 7.8%, while durable and non-durable consumer goods rose 10.9% and 16.9%, respectively… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-ppi-hits-time-high-022405323.html
Germany close to finalizing deal to nationalize Uniper The German government is reportedly close to fully nationalizing gas producer Uniper to save it from collapsing, Bloomberg reports… These include the sale of “Fortum’s Uniper shares to the German State, return of the financing Fortum granted to Uniper as well as a planned capital injection by the German State to Uniper,” a Fortum spokesperson said… Fortum currently holds a 78% stake in Uniper… https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20220920258/germany-close-to-finalizing-deal-to-nationalize-uniper
Iron Ore Rises as China’s Construction Stimulus Pays Off Decisions at October’s NPC meet could boost steel sentiment Higher steel output and falling rebar inventories are signaling that Beijing’s bid to stimulate construction after an almost yearlong property rout are having a positive impact. Daily steel output edged up 3.3% in the first 10 days of September compared with the end of August, while new investments are fueling building activity… https://news.yahoo.com/iron-ore-rises-china-construction-033848136.html
Russia Moves to Cement Grip on Occupied Ukraine, Raising Stakes Officials in four regions set Sept. 23-27 annexation votes The Kremlin is moving hastily to stage sham votes on annexing the regions of Ukraine its forces still control, after Kyiv’s military drove Russian troops from large areas of territory taken in their seven-month-old invasion… The Russian leader is laying down another ultimatum to Kyiv and its US and European allies with the implicit threat of nuclear escalation, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik research group. “The ‘annexation’ will give Putin the legal pretext that he needs to threaten the use of nuclear weapons for the ‘protection of Russian territory,” she said on Twitter, noting that the threat of using the weapons would be aimed at forcing Ukraine to capitulate before Russia actually fired them… “To guarantee ‘victory,’ Putin is ready to immediately hold referendums to gain the right…to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik research group. “Either Ukraine retreats, or it’s nuclear war.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russia-rushes-to-annex-occupied-ukraine-to-counter-kyiv-s-gains
JPMorgan CEO Dimon to warn Congress of economic ‘storm clouds’ -testimony Dimon, who is due to testify alongside major U.S. bank CEOs at congressional hearings Wednesday and Thursday, will outline the competing forces buffeting the nation’s economy… https://t.co/vvw8ozBqzD
@charliebilello: The median American household would need to spend 44.5% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006.https://t.co/sLZWOyAyHU
August US Housing Starts are 1.575m; 1.45m was consensus. However, Permits are 1.517m, 1.604m was consensus. July Housing Starts were revised to 1.404m from 1.446m; Permits to 1.685m from 1.674m
ESZs traded moderately higher, albeit in sideways action, during Asian trading. After the obligatory rally on the European open, ESZs and stocks commenced a tumble, due to the above negative developments, that took ESZs from the high of 3936.25 to 3859.00 at 10:34 ET.
The usual suspects then aggressively bought ESZs and stocks because they are conditioned to do so and because, as we have noted, traders believed the window for rallies would be open until the FOMC released its communique today at 14:00 ET.
A 34.25 ESZ A-B-C rally, abetted by the manipulation for the European close, ended at 12:05 ET. ESZs and stocks sank to new daily lows. ECB President Lagarde’s hawkish remarks contributed to the decline.
Lagarde Sees More ECB Interest-Rate Hikes After ‘Frontloading’ – BBG “We expect to raise rates further over the next several meetings.”…
AFP: ECB must stop inflation becoming “embedded,” says Lagarde
The afternoon decline ended at 14:00 ET. A rally took ESZs from a daily low of 3843.25 to 3887.50 at 15:45 ET. Feeding the rally was a report that Putin postponed his war mobilization speech. Later reports said Putin had moved the speech to 8 AM Moscow time. ESZs and stocks slid into the close.
USZs waffled between wee losses and gains during Asian trading. When Europe opened, bonds broke down. From a high of 131 4/32, USZs tumbled to 129 6/32 at 10:48 ET. A rebound rally was abetted by a good 20-year bond auction: $12B at 3.820% vs. 3.833% WI; 65% allocated at high; 8.1% allocated to primary dealers is second lowest on record; indirect bidders (foreign, usually central banks) 75.3%, direct bidders 16.6%. The bond rally ended at 13:18 ET, 18 minutes after the auction results were released.
How many times over the past several years have we mentioned manipulation for the VIX Fix?
Morgan Stanley, Barclays Accused of Manipulation VIX in Lawsuit – BBG Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital Inc. were among seven securities firms accuses in a lawsuit of manipulating the VIX Index in 2018 and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses on options contracts tied to the widely watched market benchmark… The case is Two Roads Shared Trust v. Barclalys, 20-cv-00831, US District Court, Northern District of Illinois, Chicago
Positive aspects of previous session Rebound US equity rally after first hour tumble Good 20-year US bond auction
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds tumbled on negative news and developments
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will the Fed, BoE, and BoJ do this week?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3853.16 Previous session High/Low: 3876.01; 3827.54
National Security Threat: China’s Eyes in AmericaThe Chinese company DJI controls nearly 90% of the world market for consumer and commercial grade drones….Every DJI drone in the skies above America is as good as a hovering Chinese spy…China’s strategy has for years hinged on infiltration by some Chinese scientists and researchers working abroad in the US and other western nations, with threats against their Chinese relatives as leverage for them to do so…https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18885/china-drones-dji-spying
Lawmakers want investigation of Energy Department transferring expensive tech to China The senators said an NPR report about the government transferring vanadium redox battery technology prompted their request for an investigation… https://t.co/x72b0gBRNX
@charliebilello: The 10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 14.6%.https://t.co/AMlFbz7MgO
Today – The world expected the Fed to hike its fund rate 75bps but fears it could hike 100bps. The biggest unknown is Powell. For most of his reign, Powell has started his press conference with hawkish talk but then indulges The Street with dovish comments. This led to his egregious ‘neutral rate’ remark on July 27 that unleashed a massive summer rally for equities.
Powell is unlikely to repeat this mistake from July 27 when he idiotically stated that ‘We’re right in the range of what we think is neutral (interest rates).’
Complicating the equity market reaction to the FOMC Communique: Today is VIX September expiration. After the FOMC Communique is released at 14:00 ET, the usual suspects are likely to manipulate stuff for the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. There should be beaucoup volatility after 14:00 ET.
If Powell is not exceptionally hawkish, a relief rally is probable based on pattern trading.
@MarketWatch: The stock market has rallied on day of every Fed rate-hike decision in 2022. Could it happen again Wednesday?
@OccupytheFeds: Rubenstein is Fed Chair Powell’s former boss and WEF Board member alongside BlackRock’s Larry Fink. Pulling on Jay’s strings… Fed Chair Powell has been warned by the WEF overlords not to hike 100 basis points tomorrow.
ESZs are +6.50 and USZs are +8/32 a 20:10 ET on this: @MrKovalenko: Russia will not declare general mobilization despite the changes to the Criminal Code adopted by the Duma on Tuesday Sept 20, said Andrei Kartapolov, a head of Duma’s Defense Committee for newspaper Paliamentskaya gazeta
Expected economic data: August Existing Home Sales 4.69m; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET; Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET.
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4765.16 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4273.61 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4017.52 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3892.22 triggers a buy signal
DeSantis apparently sending new plane of migrants to Biden’s summer homehttps://trib.al/M4L1nxa
Jim Jordan: Whistleblower says FBI manipulating Jan. 6 cases to create illusion of national crisis Lawmaker says FBI’s shifted focus is also coming at the expense of other crimes, including child sex exploitation. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said in a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray that the “manipulative case-file practice” was being conducted by the bureau’s Washington field office, which was instructing local FBI offices to open up cases on their books that were in fact simply related to the Capitol breach… “Such an artificial case categorization scheme allows FBI leadership to misleadingly point to ‘significant’ increases in DVE threats nationwide,” he added… “The whistleblower disclosed that the FBI is sacrificing its other important federal law-enforcement duties to pursue January 6 investigations,” Jordan wrote. “The whistleblower recalled, for example, being told that child sexual abuse material investigations were no longer an FBI priority and should be referred to local law enforcement agencies… https://justthenews.com/accountability/jim-jordan-whistleblower-says-fbi-manipulating-jan-6-cases-create-illusion-national
Federal appeals court reverses ruling on Jan. 6 subpoena to RNC, dismisses case A federal appeals court has reversed a lower court ruling ordering the Republican National Committee to comply with a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 committee, poking the Democrat-led investigation for vacillating on key issues and acknowledging there were “important and unsettled constitutional questions” about whether the panel is lawfully constituted… The Jan. 6 committee withdrew the subpoena to the RNC seeking records of its dealings with a digital fund-raising vendor Salesforce… when a dispute is withdrawn, a federal appeals court issues a very brief order of dismissal, but the appellate judges went out of their way to acknowledge the RNC’s concerns about the subpoena raised important issues and that the lower court’s ruling needed to be reversed… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/federal-appeals-court-reverses-ruling-jan-6-subpoena-rnc-dismisses-case
@MattWolking: Just a reminder: In January 2017, after Trump’s win, House Democrats objected to certifying the election results in 9 states. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Wyoming. About 70 House Democrats boycotted Trump’s inauguration.
We missed this clip from August 2021 in which Mark Zuckerberg cautions his staff about taking the Covid vaccine because “we just don’t know the long-term side effects of basically modifying people’s DNA and RNA…” Weren’t people banned from voicing concern about the Covid mRNA vaccines? https://twitter.com/Its_Gav_7/status/1571680466775810049
Kamala Harris: “We invested an additional $12 billion into community banks, because we know community banks are in the community, and understand the needs and desires of that community as well as the talent and capacity of community.” https://twitter.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1572307342506749952
@conservmillen: Ok this is amazing. Don Lemon (CNN) brings up the need for slave reparations from the royal family. His guest says, yes, people should be demanding reparations… from the African leaders who sold them into slavery.https://twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1572192397018234888
@bennyjohnson: Try not to CRINGE as Martha’s Vineyard libs fake cry and CHEER as illegals are deported from their island on busses. https://t.co/HYa74ORtq0
“The welfare of the people has always been the alibi of tyrants.” – Albert Camus
Dr. Peter McCullough is a renowned cardiologist who fought the accepted government CV19 vax narrative from the beginning. Dr. McCullough said, “The injections should have been halted in February of 2021.” Instead, the government mandated the clot shots, and the CDC and FDA covered up the problems. The FDA is still covering up massive deaths and injuries from the mRNA shots. Dr. McCullough explains, “It’s the great gamble of the Covid19 vaccine program. It was the gamble of a lifetime, if not a gamble of all-time. The vaccines install the genetic code for the lethal Wuhan spike protein that was engineered in a bio-security lab in Wuhan, China. This is the worst idea ever to install a fatal protein and have it installed for an uncontrolled duration and an uncontrolled quantity in the human body. . . . This is a biological catastrophe in unspeakable proportions. . . . Nobody wants these shots now, and they are still mandating them and forcing them on people.”
According to Dr. McCullough, the FDA admits the shots cause fatal heart damage, Fatal blood clotting, strokes, neurological injuries and other problems. When the evidence mounted on how deadly and debilitating the CV19 injections were, the FDA covered it all up instead of pulling them off the market. Dr. McCullough says, “Now, we have the additional deaths from the CV19 vaccines. The CDC shows 14,000 died the next day, and that is a gross under-reporting. . . The World Council for Health points out four agencies, including VAERS with 40,000 certified deaths, and that may be an under-reporting of 100 to 1. It’s a vast number, and no governments are doing investigations. The United States should be doing a full stop on this. Pfizer knew about 1,223 deaths within 90 days of release of their product . . . Pfizer logged all these deaths, but they didn’t pull their product off the market, and the FDA’s lawyer wanted to block that information from Americans for 55 years. So, the FDA is involved in a cover-up with Pfizer, and almost certainly with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson. It’s an ongoing biological catastrophe.”
McCullough contends that Covid is waning but warns, “What we are left with is just the vaccine injuries and damage itself. I can tell you we are going to have to be quite vigilant. The blood clots and heart damage, I have never ordered so many cardiac MRIs and ultrasound tests for blood clots. People need to be hyper-vigilant. They have put a foreign genetic code in their bodies. It’s produced the lethal Wuhan spike proteins. It’s in their brains, and it’s in their hearts. People can’t feel good that have taken this into their bodies. They have to know they have taken an extraordinary risk. . . . There are over 1,000 papers in the peer-reviewed literature. Not a single paper shows a benefit of these vaccines. 100 percent of it is bad news.”
There is much more in the 47-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he interviews top cardiologist and CV19 expert Dr. Peter McCullough.
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