GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $32.75 at $1813.60

SILVER PRICE CLOSE: UP 0.59 to $23.78

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1810.30

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.71

Bitcoin morning price:, 17,449 UP 358 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $17,771 up 680

Platinum price closing $1036.25 UP $34.95

Palladium price; closing 1935.40 UP $53.25

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2452.43 UP $22.58 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1464.27 UP 11.85 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1702.97 UP 12.42 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

COMEX//NOTICES FILED

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,780.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 12/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 1
104 C MIZUHO 15
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 267
132 C SG AMERICAS 32
190 H BMO CAPITAL 7
323 C HSBC 53
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 231
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 2000
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 440
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 16
661 C JP MORGAN 914
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4 7
700 C UBS 54
800 C MAREX SPEC 5 54
880 C CITIGROUP 3
905 C ADM 35

TOTAL: 2,070 2,070
MONTH TO DATE: 18,64

COMEX//NOTICES FILED re JPMorgan 75/166

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 2070 NOTICES FOR 207,000 OZ or 6.438 TONNES

total notices so far: 18,648 contracts for 1,864,800 oz (58.003 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 110,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 3418 for 17,075,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $35.75

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.59

AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV THESE PAST 3 WEEKS! A LOSS OF .6 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 513.9 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1120 CONTRACTS TO 122,491 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.33 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.33 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 452 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A ZERO ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALL. .WE PROBABLY HAD CONSIDERABLE SOME SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE STRONG PRICE FALL OF THE SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> SMALL NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 23 .24. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON of 20,000 OZ // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL —217

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 5323 contracts: OR 26.615 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (483 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 26.615 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 26.615 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1120 WITH OUR STRONG $0.33 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 453 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 23.24 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S 20,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 23.780 MILLION OZ + EFR = 34.280 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 452 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 2.260 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.

WE HAD 22 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 110,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3651 CONTRACTS TO 424,139 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 71 CONTRACTS.

THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S QUEUE JUMP of 26 contracts or 2600 oz//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 59.539 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS PRICE OF $17.60 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2551 OI CONTRACTS (7.934 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1100 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 424,210

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2551 CONTRACTS WITH 3651 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS FAILING TO GET OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 1100 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2480 CONTRACTS OR 7.713 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1100 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3651) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2480 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) ATTEMPTED BUT MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // SOME NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP of 2600 oz// //NEW STANDING 59.538 TONNES///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

DEC

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :

23,148 CONTRACTS OR 2,314,800 OZ OR 72.00 TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2128 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:72.00 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 72.00/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 72.00 tonnes Initial

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1120 CONTRACTS OI TO 122,491 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 453 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 453 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 453 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 903 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 453 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 667 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.335 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.33….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.72 PTS OR 0.09% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.57 OR 0.68% /The Nikkei closed UP 112.52 OR 0.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.25% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.9849//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9909// /Oil UP TO 73.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 78.71 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3651 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 424,139 WITH OUR THE LOSS IN PRICE..$17.60

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1100 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 1100 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:1100 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2551 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1100 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3651 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $17.60. WE ARE WITNESSING STRONG SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD FEW NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING DEC (59.536)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)

Dec. 59.536 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $17.60 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 2551 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES >. WE HAD STRONG SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. // WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 7.934 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (54.57 TONNES), following our queue jump of 2600 oz//new standing 59.536 tonnes…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.60

WE HAD – 71 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2551 CONTRACTS OR 255,100 OZ OR 7.934 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 227,181// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday 113,583/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR DECEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //DEC 13

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil. oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	2070 notice(s) 207,000 OZ 6.438 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	493 contracts 49,300 oz 1.533 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	18,648 notices 1,864,800 58.003 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

customer withdrawals:0

Total withdrawals: nil oz

total in tonnes: 0 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

i) dealer to customer HSBC 96.453 oz

ii) customer to dealer/Manfra: 5112.009 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER.

For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 2563 contracts having LOST 141 contracts

We had 166 contracts served on Monday, so we gained 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will stand for gold at the COMEX. We will gain in gold tonnage from this day forth.

The comex is running out of physical gold to serve our good friends over in London

JANUARY gained 9 contracts to stand at 1326

February lost 3791 contacts up to 361,308

We had 2070 notice(s) filed today for 207,000 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2070 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 914 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,648 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (DEC. 2563 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2070 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,914,100 OZ OR 59.536 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of DEC.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:

No of notices filed so far (18,648 x 100 oz+ (2563 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2070} x 100 oz} which equals 1,914,200 oz standing OR 59.536 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 59.458 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,043,626.627 OZ 63.56 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 23,296,608.454 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,713,540.992 OZ (364.34 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,583,067.462 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,669,914 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 300.77 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX

DEC 13//INITIAL DEC. SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	690,269.182 oz CNT HSBC JPM Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	665,318.659 oz Delaware Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	22 CONTRACT(S) (110,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	1338 contracts (6,690,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	3418 contracts (17,075,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 64,975.479 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 600,343.180 oz

Total deposits: 665,318.659 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 150.778 million oz/299.479 million =50.35% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals:4

i) Out of CNT: 274,949.076 oz

ii) Out of HSBC 247,113.880 oz

iii Out of JPMorgan: 67,841.200 oz

iv) Out of Manfra: 100,365.030 oz

Total withdrawals; 690,269.186 oz

adjustments:

ii) customer to dealer: Delaware 4812.675 oz

HSBC 4970.000 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 33,614 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 299.679MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF DEC OI: 1360 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 369 CONTRACT(S.)

WE HAD 373 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY. SO WE GAINED A SMALL 4 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 oz

AS A QUEUE JUMP.

JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 3 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1566 CONTACTS.

FEB> LOST 0 CONTRACTS TO 101 CONTRACTS

March LOST 811 contracts DOWN to 107,897 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:22 for 110,000 oz

Comex volumes:3,078// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 56,435 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3418 x 5,000 oz = 17,075,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1360) and the number of notices served upon today 22 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the DEC./2022 contract month: 3418 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1360 – number of notices served upon today (22) x 50070 oz of silver standing for the DEC. contract month equates 23.780 million oz.. Also we have another criminal element to our silver oz standing, the use of Exchange for Risk/ Today an addition of 0 EFR contract transfers which are “Exchange for risk” settlements. I do not want to bore you but needless to say they are not physical transfers so are criminal in nature. There have been 2100 Exchange for Risk contracts settled these past 7 days for 10.500 million oz. Thus total delivery: 34.280 million oz.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:72,715// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 41,195 contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41

DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES

NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES

NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.

NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.

NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES

OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//

OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 910.41 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//

DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//

DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.

DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//

NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//

NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//

NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ

OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 513.9 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

end

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

12 Dec 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Both authors agree that gold is breaking the chains around its ankle

(Kranzler/Lundin/GATA)

Kranzler and Lundin see gold breaking its chains

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-12-12 17:41Section: Daily Dispatches

5:40p ET Monday, December 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While today has not been a great day for gold, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver and Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter and the Golden Opportunities letters, see the monetary metal starting to rise as other assets fall.

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “The Precious Metals Sector May Have Started a Sustainable Bull Cycle” and it’s posted here:

The Precious Metals Sector May Have Started A Sustainable Bull Cycle

Lundin’s analysis is headlined “Gold Is Breaking Its Chains” and it’s posted here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

GOLD/SILVER

/4. OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

The “Barbarous Relic” Helped Enable A World More Civilized than Today’s

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 07:00 PM

Authored by George Ford Smith via The Mises Institute,

One of history’s greatest ironies is that gold detractors refer to the metal as the barbarous relic. In fact, the abandonment of gold has put civilization as we know it at risk of extinction.

The gold coin standard that had served Western economies so brilliantly throughout most of the nineteenth century hit a brick wall in 1914 and was never able to recover, or so the story goes. As the Great War began, Europe turned from prosperity to destruction, or more precisely, toward prosperity for some and destruction for the rest. The gold coin standard had to be ditched for such a prodigious undertaking.

If gold was money, and wars cost money, how was this even possible?

First, people were already in the habit of using money substitutes instead of money itself—banknotes instead of the gold coins they represented. People found it more convenient to carry paper around in their pockets than gold coins. Over time the paper itself came to be regarded as money, while gold became a clunky inconvenience from the old days.

Second, banks had been in the habit of issuing more bank-notes and deposits than the value of the gold in their vaults. On occasion, this practice would arouse public suspicion that the notes were promises the banks could not keep. The courts sided with the banks and allowed them to suspend note redemption while staying in business, thus strengthening the government-bank alliance. Since the courts ruled that deposits belonged to the banks, bankers could not be accused of embezzlement. The occasional bank runs that erupted were interpreted as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people lined up to withdraw their money because they believed their bank was insolvent, the bank soon would be. People had no idea their banks were loaning out most of their deposits. They did not know fractional reserve banking, a form of counterfeiting, was the norm.

Gold coin redemption requirements put limits on fractional reserve banking. Such limits were not welcomed by banks. Since banks could loan to the government, limitations also capped government spending, so the government did not like the limitations of gold coin redemption either.

Which brings us to the wall gold allegedly hit.

Preparing for War Means Preparing for Inflation

In his 1949 book, Economics and the Public Welfare, economist Benjamin Anderson tells us, “the war [in 1914] came as a great shock, not only to the masses of the American people, but also to most well-informed Americans—and, for that matter, to most Europeans.” And yet, Germany, Russia, and France began accumulating gold prior to the war (with Germany starting first in 1912). Gold was taken “out of the hands of the people” and carried to the reserves of the Reichsbank, the German central bank. People were given paper notes “to take the place of gold in circulation.”

When war broke out in August 1914, Gary North explains that the pre–World War I policy of gold coin redemption was

independently but almost simultaneously revoked by European governments. . . . They all then resorted to monetary inflation. This was a way to conceal from the public the true costs of the war. They imposed an inflation tax, and could then blame any price hikes on unpatriotic price gouging. This rested on widespread ignorance regarding economic cause and effects regarding monetary inflation and price inflation. They could not have done this if citizens had possessed the pre-war right to demand payment in gold coins at a fixed rate. They would have made a run on the banks. Governments could not have inflated without reneging on their promises to redeem their currencies for gold coins. So, they reneged while they still had the gold. Better early contract-breaking than late, they concluded.

If governments had not broken their promise to redeem paper notes for gold coins, they would have had to negotiate their differences rather than engage in one of the deadliest wars in history. Abandoning the gold coin standard, which had always been under government control, was the deciding factor in going to war.

Though the US did not formally abandon gold during its late participation in the war, it discouraged redemption while roughly doubling the money supply. Blanchard Economic Research discusses the situation in “War and Inflation”:

War also causes the type of inflation that results from a rapid expansion of money and credit. “In World War I, the American people were characteristically unwilling to finance the total war effort out of increased taxes. This had been true in the Civil War and would also be so in World War II and the Vietnam War. Much of the expenditures in World War I, were financed out of the inflationary increases in the money supply.”

Governments had a choice to make: fight a long, bloody war for specious reasons, or retain the gold coin standard. They chose war. US leaders found their decision irresistible. It was not J.P. Morgan, Woodrow Wilson, Edward Mandell House, or Benjamin Strong who would be fighting in the trenches.

When we hear that “going off gold” was the prerequisite for global peace and harmony, we should remember places such as the Meuse-Argonne American Cemetery in France, where grave markers seemingly extend to infinity. These are mostly the graves of young men who died for nothing but the lies of politicians and the profits of the politically connected. Gold wanted no part in the slaughter. But politicians and bankers knew a paper fiat standard was the monetary prerequisite to achieving their goals.

Conclusion

John Maynard Keynes, who coined the term “barbarous relic” in reference to the gold standard, wrote about the world that was lost when gold was abandoned:

What an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man that age was which came to an end in August, 1914! . . . The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep. . . . He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality, could despatch his servant to the neighboring office of a bank for such supply of the precious metals as might seem convenient, and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters, without knowledge of their religion, language, or customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person, and would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much surprised at the least interference. But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable.

If Keynes had read what he wrote, he might have been a better economist. And we might be living in a better world today.

end

5. Commodity commentaries//IRON ORE

END

6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

Bankman arrested in Bahamas

(zerohedge)

Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested In The Bahamas, Charged With Wire/Securities Fraud And Money Laundering

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 06:44 PM

Update (8:35pm ET): According to the NYT, the charges against SBF which in an indictment which will be unsealed on Tuesday included wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. Of course, SBF should also be charged for talking too damn much and adding 15 years to his sentence by being a megalomaniac sociopath, but we’d take attempted bribery of the entire Democratic Party instead.

A lawyer chimes in, pointing out that according to federal sentencing guidelines, SBF could be looking at approximately 612,000 years in prison.

While more than half a million years in prison may seem excessive, life in prison for the disgraced democrat donor sounds about right.

And since SBF was the only person charged in the indictment, it appears that we were right when we said that his co-worker (and former lover) Caroline Ellison would roll on him (see “Alameda’s Caroline Ellison Spotted In NY Amid Speculation She Is About To Roll On SBF After Hiring Iconic Clinton Lawyer”).

* * *

Just hours after refusing to attend a Senate hearing on his role in the collapse of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried has been arrested by The Royal Bahamian Police Force, according to a statement from the Attorney General of The Bahamas Sen. Ryan Pinder KC.

The arrest came after the U.S. filed criminal charges against Bankman-Fried. US prosecutors say they’ll unseal an indictment on Tuesday…

It does make one wonder at the timing, as this happened just a week after Carline Ellison – the former CEO of Alameda Capital – was spotted in NY (not in custody) and had sought council, represented by DC law firm, WilmerHale.

Did his girlfriend throw him under the bus pre-emptively as she saw the ‘Simple Jack’ defense gaining ground?

Furthermore, the statement said that the nation expects the U.S. to request The Bahamas extradite Bankman-Fried in short order.

“As a result of the notification received and the material provided therewith, it was deemed appropriate for the Attorney General to seek SBF’s arrest and hold him in custody pursuant to our nation’s Extradition Act.

At such time as a formal request for extradition is made, The Bahamas intends to process it promptly, pursuant to Bahamian law and its treaty obligations with the United States.”

This should not have come as a total surprise after John Ray, the current FTX CEO, wrote in prepared remarks that FTX had ‘commingled’ funds…

Responding to SBF’s arrest, Prime Minister Davis stated:

“The Bahamas and the United States have a shared interest in holding accountable all individuals associated with FTX who may have betrayed the public trust and broken the law. While the United States is pursuing criminal charges against SBF individually, The Bahamas will continue its own regulatory and criminal investigations into the collapse of FTX, with the continued cooperation of its law enforcement and regulatory partners in the United States and elsewhere.”

Presumably this means he will not be attending tomorrow’s Congressional hearing with Maxine Waters… which is a shame because we would have liked to hear some answers…

In his prepared remarks for that hearing, Bankman-Fried offered a blunt assessment of his plight.

“I would like to start by formally stating under oath: I f*cked up,” he said in the remarks obtained by Bloomberg News.

Indeed you did young man…

* * *

Official Statement below:

Source

END

SEC files separate charges against Bankman for massive years of fraud

(zerohedge)

SEC Files Separate Charges Against FTX CEO SBF For “Massive Years Long Fraud”

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 07:28 AM

The US Securities and Exchange Commission said it will file charges against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried on Tuesday relating to violations of securities law, accusing him of “orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX” and seeking to ban him from the cryptocurrency industry.

“We allege that Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler

The SEC made the announcement on Monday, shortly after Bahamian authorities arrest Bankman-Fried, the US Attorney’s Office Southern District of New York confirmed.

The SEC has charged Bankman-Fried with violating the anti-fraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The SEC’s complaint seeks injunctions against future securities law violation that prohibits Bankman-Fried from participating in the issuance, purchase, offer, or sale of any securities except for his own personal account.

SEC charged Bankman-Fried for orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX Trading Ltd. (FTX). The regulatory body noted that the former CEO concealed his “diversion of FTX customers’ funds to crypto trading firm Alameda Research while raising more than $1.8 billion from investors.”

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK

Plaintiff: SECURITIES AND ) EXCHANGE COMMISSION,

Defendant: SAMUEL BANKMAN-FRIED Plaintiff Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”), for its complaint against Defendant, Samuel Bankman-Fried (“Bankman-Fried”), alleges as follows:

SUMMARY

1. From at least May 2019 through November 2022, Bankman-Fried engaged in a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX Trading Ltd. (“FTX”), the crypto asset trading platform of which he was CEO and co-founder, at the same time that he was also defrauding the platform’s customers. Bankman-Fried raised more than $1.8 billion from investors, including U.S. investors, who bought an equity stake in FTX believing that FTX had appropriate controls and risk management measures. Unbeknownst to those investors (and to FTX’s trading customers), Bankman-Fried was orchestrating a massive, years-long fraud, diverting billions of dollars of the trading platform’s customer funds for his own personal benefit and to help grow his crypto empire.

2. Throughout this period, Bankman-Fried portrayed himself as a responsible leader of the crypto community. He touted the importance of regulation and accountability. He told the public, including investors, that FTX was both innovative and responsible. Customers around the world believed his lies, and sent billions of dollars to FTX, believing their assets were secure on the FTX trading platform. But from the start, Bankman-Fried improperly diverted customer assets to his privately-held crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research LLC (“Alameda”), and then used those customer funds to make undisclosed venture investments, lavish real estate purchases, and large political donations.

3. Bankman-Fried hid all of this from FTX’s equity investors, including U.S. investors, from whom he sought to raise billions of dollars in additional funds. He repeatedly cast FTX as an innovative and conservative trailblazer in the crypto markets. He told investors and prospective investors that FTX had top-notch, sophisticated automated risk measures in place to protect customer assets, that those assets were safe and secure, and that Alameda was just another platform customer with no special privileges. These statements were false and misleading. In truth, Bankman-Fried had exempted Alameda from the risk mitigation measures and had provided Alameda with significant special treatment on the FTX platform, including a virtually unlimited “line of credit” funded by the platform’s customers.

4. While he spent lavishly on office space and condominiums in The Bahamas, and sank billions of dollars of customer funds into speculative venture investments, Bankman-Fried’s house of cards began to crumble. When prices of crypto assets plummeted in May 2022, Alameda’s lenders demanded repayment on billions of dollars of loans. Despite the fact that Alameda had, by this point, already taken billions of dollars of FTX customer assets, it was unable to satisfy its loan obligations. Bankman-Fried directed FTX to divert billions more in customer assets to Alameda to ensure that Alameda maintained its lending relationships, and that money could continue to flow in from lenders and other investors.

5. But Bankman-Fried did not stop there. Even as it was increasingly clear that Alameda and FTX could not make customers whole, Bankman-Fried continued to misappropriate FTX customer funds. Through the summer of 2022, he directed hundreds of millions more in FTX customer funds to Alameda, which he then used for additional venture investments and for “loans” to himself and other FTX executives. All the while, he continued to make misleading statements to investors about FTX’s financial condition and risk management. Even in November 2022, faced with billions of dollars in customer withdrawal demands that FTX could not fulfill, Bankman-Fried misled investors from whom he needed money to plug a multi-billion-dollar hole. His brazen, multi-year scheme finally came to an end when FTX, Alameda, and their tangled web of affiliated entities filed for bankruptcy on November 11, 2022.

The first thing to note in the rap sheet is the date, “From at least May 2019 . . .”, by which the SEC means FTX’s entire existence. It was around May 2019 that SBF bought the FTX.com domain and the first fundraising announcement didn’t drop until August of that year.

Additionally SEC Chair Gary Gensler, warned:

“The alleged fraud committed by Mr. Bankman-Fried is a clarion call to crypto platforms that they need to come into compliance with our laws.”

Grewal said the charges will be filed publicly “tomorrow” on Dec. 14 at the Southern District of New York

end

“Bankman-Fried Was Well Aware”: Digging Into SEC’s Charges Against FTX CEO

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 07:28 AM

“We allege that Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler

The SEC made the announcement on Monday, shortly after Bahamian authorities arrest Bankman-Fried, the US Attorney’s Office Southern District of New York confirmed.

Here are some of the wildest accusations from the SEC’s 28-page filing:

SBF improperly diverted assets to his privately held crypto hedge fund:

Unbeknownst to those investors (and to FTX’s trading customers), Bankman-Fried was orchestrating a massive, years-long fraud, diverting billions of dollars of the trading platform’s customer funds for his own personal benefit and to help grow his crypto empire.

Throughout this period, Bankman-Fried portrayed himself as a responsible leader of the crypto community. He touted the importance of regulation and accountability. He told the public, including investors, that FTX was both innovative and responsible. Customers around the world believed his lies, and sent billions of dollars to FTX, believing their assets were secure on the FTX trading platform. But from the start, Bankman-Fried improperly diverted customer assets to his privately-held crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research LLC (“Alameda”), and then used those customer funds to make undisclosed venture investments, lavish real estate purchases, and large political donations.

Bankman-Fried then exempted his crypto hedge fund, Alameda, from risk mitigation procedures:

He told investors and prospective investors that FTX had top-notch, sophisticated automated risk measures in place to protect customer assets, that those assets were safe and secure, and that Alameda was just another platform customer with no special privileges. These statements were false and misleading. In truth, Bankman-Fried had exempted Alameda from the risk mitigation measures and had provided Alameda with significant special treatment on the FTX platform, including a virtually unlimited “line of credit” funded by the platform’s customers.

While he spent lavishly on office space and condominiums in The Bahamas, and sank billions of dollars of customer funds into speculative venture investments, Bankman-Fried’s house of cards began to crumble.

Here’s how he diverted funds:

Bankman-Fried diverted FTX customer funds to Alameda in essentially two ways: (1) by directing FTX customers to deposit fiat currency (e.g., U.S. Dollars) into bank accounts controlled by Alameda; and (2) by enabling Alameda to draw down from a virtually limitless “line of credit” at FTX, which was funded by FTX customer assets.

As a result, there was no meaningful distinction between FTX customer funds and Alameda’s own funds. Bankman-Fried thus gave Alameda carte blanche to use FTX customer assets for its own trading operations and for whatever other purposes Bankman-Fried saw fit.

SBF had a secret ‘fiat@ account with a negative $8 billion balance’:

Bankman-Fried directed FTX to have customers send funds to North Dimension in an effort to hide the fact that the funds were being sent to an account controlled by Alameda.

Alameda did not segregate these customer funds, but instead commingled them with its other assets, and used them indiscriminately to fund its trading operations and Bankman-Fried’s other ventures.

This multi-billion-dollar liability was reflected in an internal account in the FTX database that was not tied to Alameda but was instead called “fiat@ftx.com.” Characterizing the amount of customer funds sent to Alameda as an internal FTX account had the effect of concealing Alameda’s liability in FTX’s internal systems.

Here’s how ‘fiat@ftx.com‘ was ‘lost’ in the shuffle:

In 2022, FTX began trying to separate Alameda’s portion of the liability in the “fiat@ftx.com” account from the portion that was attributable to FTX (i.e., to separate out customer deposits sent to Alameda-controlled bank accounts from deposits sent to FTX-controlled bank accounts). Alameda’s portion — which amounted to more than $8 billion in FTX customer assets that had been deposited into Alameda-controlled bank accounts — was initially moved to a different account in the FTX database.

However, because this change caused FTX’s internal systems to automatically charge Alameda interest on the more than $8 billion liability, Bankman-Fried directed that the Alameda liability be moved to an account that would not be charged interest. This account was associated with an individual that had no apparent connection to Alameda. As a result, this change had the effect of further concealing Alameda’s liability in FTX’s internal systems.

SBF has claimed in interviews he ‘wasn’t aware’ of how illiquid Alameda’s collateral had become, yet according to the SEC:

Bankman-Fried was well aware of the impact of Alameda’s positions on FTX’s risk profile. On or about October 12, 2022, for example, Bankman-Fried, in a series of tweets, analyzed the manipulation of a digital asset on an unrelated crypto platform. In explaining what occurred, Bankman-Fried distinguished between an asset’s “current price” and its “fair price,” and recognized that “large positions – especially in illiquid tokens – can have a lot of impact.”

Bankman-Fried asserted that FTX’s risk engine required customers to “fully collateralize a position” when the customer’s position is “large and illiquid enough.” But Bankman-Fried knew, or was reckless in not knowing, that by not mitigating for the impact of large and illiquid tokens posted as collateral by Alameda, FTX was engaging in precisely the same conduct, and creating the same risk, that he was warning against.

end

“Conspiracy To Defraud The United States”: Feds Charge FTX Founder With Campaign Finance Violations

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 10:01 AM

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was charged with eight criminal counts, including conspiracy and wire fraud for allegedly misusing billions of dollars in customers’ funds before the spectacular collapse of his cryptocurrency empire.

The indictment, unsealed this morning, alleges that Bankman-Fried agreed with others “to defraud customers of FTX.com by misappropriating those customers’ deposits and using those deposits to pay expenses and debts of Alameda Research.”

Bankman-Fried was indicted on eight counts, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customer and lenders, wire fraud on customers and lenders, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, securities fraud, money laundering.

However, the final count is perhaps the most notable (and new), charging SBF with conspiracy to defraud the United States and Violate Campaign Finance Laws…

[SBF] willfully and knowingly did combine, conspire, confederate, and agree together and with each other to commit offenses against the United States by engaging in violations of federal law involving the making, receiving, and reporting of a contribution, donation, or expenditure, in violation of Title 52, United States Code, Sections 30109(d) (1) (A) & (0).

…

[SBF] did defraud the United States, and an agency thereof, by impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful functions of a department and agency of the United States through deceitful and dishonest means, to wit, the Federal Election Commission’s function to administer federal law concerning source and amount restrictions in federal elections…

Bankman-Fried had been under criminal investigation by US and Bahamian authorities after FTX collapsed last month. The company filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11 after running out of money amid a crypto ‘bank run.’ Prior to the collapse, SBF was worth roughly $26.5 billion, according to Forbes. He was a prominent DC donor, contributing millions of dollars to mostly left-wing causes and Democratic political campaigns.

Read the full charge sheet below:

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.9849

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9909

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.72 PTS OR 0.09%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 132.57 OR 0.68%

2. Nikkei closed UP 112.52 PTS OR 0.40%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.50 Euro FALLS TO 104.39 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 137.38/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.933%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.810%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.95…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.015//

3j Gold at $1787805//silver at: 23.51 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 44/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 63.24//

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 137.38 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9362– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9869 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.583% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.534% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,65…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.272%

end

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Storm Higher Ahead Of Last Most Important Datapoint Of 2022

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 08:08 AM

After a dismal start to December, US futures extended their gains to a second day ahead of today’s critical economic data: the final consumer prices print due of 2022 which in turn precedes tomorrow’s final for 2022 FOMC meeting where Powell is expected to slow the pace of hiking to 50bps. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.6% higher by 7:45 a.m. ET while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%. The underlying benchmarks advanced on Monday in anticipation Tuesday’s inflation data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will establish a slower pace of interest-rate increases. The greenback halted a two-day rally, while Treasuries gained. Oil futures extended gains by another 0.5% after almost sliding below $70 on Monday on signs of further easing in China’s Covid rules. Oil traded higher by 0.5% on signs of further easing in China’s Covid rules.

Overnight news centered around further re-opening headlines in Greater China (especially Hong Kong) and a decline in German inflation MoM (although in-line with expectations). On the CPI front, Goldman expects a 0.2% rise MoM (vs cons .3%) as a decline in used cars, hotels and apparel prices should help the headline number (on the flip side expect rebound in airfares and another gain in car insurance). Full preview here. There are no major earnings.

In premarket trading, Oracle shares rose 2.5% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts were positive about the company’s execution and revenue growth in the quarter amid tough macro conditions. Pinterest Inc. also gained, rising 3.75%, after Pinterest (PINS US) shares rise 3.7% after Piper Sandler lifted the social networking site to overweight from neutral, noting multiple tailwinds heading into 2023 that are separate from the health of the ad market. here are the other notable premarket movers:

NetApp stock declines 2.2% on thin volumes as Morgan Stanley cut it to underweight. The broker cut PT to $58 from $66 as a name where the backlog is smaller and estimates are more at risk; raises Coherent (COHR US) to overweight.
Magenta Therapeutics jumps 48% after the biotechnology company released a positive update on clinical trial data for a drug called MGTA-117 treating acute myeloid leukemia patients.
Mirati Therapeutics shares rally 18% after the biotech company’s cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib) won approval from the FDA. The drug’s label was as expected, which analysts said was also a positive development.
Keep an eye on US internet stocks as Citi sees a “significant reset” for the sector in 2023 and says the long-term secular attractions still outweigh the near-term challenges.
It initiates coverage on 16 stocks, though Amazon remains its top internet sector pick, followed by Meta (META US) within online advertising.
Watch Carrier Global and nVent Electric as both stocks are downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KeyBanc, which is cautious that sentiment on late-cycle industrial names has peaked.
Keep an eye on Fiverr, Xometry and Zillow as all three stocks were initiated with buy ratings at Citi, which expanded its coverage of online marketplaces, with a preference for stocks leading their respective categories across autos and real estate.
Equinix stock may be in focus as it was upgraded to outperform from market perform and named among ‘best ideas for 2023’ at Cowen, with the company seen as strongly positioned to weather a tough economic outlook.
Credit Suisse says it is positive on the long-term outlook for US industrial tech stocks but more cautious on the near-term, in a note initiating coverage on eight stocks in the sector.

Stocks retreated last week over concerns that strong US economic data will force the Fed to remain aggressive in tightening policy. This inflation print will be closely monitored as traders assess the impact of higher rates on prices. If economists’ projection for a 7.3% expansion in the US consumer price index for November is on target, it would be the lowest reading in 11 months and the fifth consecutive drop. While that would still leave inflation much higher than the Fed’s target of 2%, it could justify a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening, with a projected half-point move on Wednesday. However, it also leaves the bar low for disappointment and a selloff. A 7.3% print would also spark a 2%-3% gain in stocks according to JPMorgan, which provided the following market reaction matrix:

Prints 7.8% or higher. Inflation moving higher after the November print would likely have investors questioning whether the Nov was an aberration and if inflation is reaccelerating from here. Further, the near-term inflation outlook is muddled as the Chinese reopening could prove to be inflation. SPX down 4% – 5%; Probability 5%
7.5% – 7.7%. If the CPI is to miss hawkishly, the misses this year have ranged from 10bps – 30bps. The 20bps+ misses have triggered an average -2.3% move in the SPX. Should this outcome occur, given the recent bear rally, we could see a more dramatic move here. SPX down 2.5% – 3.5; Probability 25%
7.2% – 7.4%. This inline print is a market positive event but given positioning being less light than in November but is historically low. This could initiate short-covering as well as shifting the near-term trading range higher, potentially from 3700 – 3900 to 3850 – 4150. SPX +2% – +3%; Probability 50%
7.0% – 7.2%. A bullish outcome that could pull terminal rate lower despite expectations for higher DOTS being released the next day. While 2 data points is not a trend, this may embolden bulls especially if commodity prices continue their decline. SPX +4% – 5%; Probability 15%
6.9% or lower. A print here could be the technical end of the bear market, putting this latest rally at a more than 20% move from its lows in October. The logic here is that not only is inflation dissipating but its pace is accelerating. This would give increasing confidence in projections of headline inflation falling ~3% in 2023. Further, if inflation is at 3%, irrespective of the labor market conditions, it seems unlikely that the Fed would hold the terminal rate at 5%. Any Fed pivot will rip Equities. SPX +8% – 10%; Probability 5%

One thing is certain: expect a big move – options are implying a 2.3% move in the S&P today, in line with recent swings which are among the highest in history.

“Today’s US CPI data will give us an idea on how the market pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate will clash with the dot plot projections that will come out tomorrow, and that will, in all cases, hammer any potentially optimistic market sentiment,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “Therefore, even if we see a great CPI print and a nice market rally today, it may not extend past the Fed decision on Wednesday.”

November CPI is expected at +0.3% m/m and +7.3% y/y; easing supply constraints, discounts to clear excess inventory, a downturn in interest-rate sensitive sectors, and lower energy prices are all factors effecting this month’s print. Our full preview can be found here, and this is the CPI forecast by bank:

7.2% – Barclays
7.2% – Credit Suisse
7.2% – Goldman Sachs
7.2% – Bloomberg Econ
7.2% – Citigroup
7.2% – Morgan Stanley
7.2% – Wells Fargo
7.3% – HSBC
7.3% – JP Morgan Chase
7.3% – UBS
7.3% – Bank of America
7.4% – SocGen

Meanwhile, the US central bank is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday.

“I wouldn’t be so bullish on the upside to a softer print. I’m afraid I’d be a bit more bearish on the downside if we get a stronger than expected number,” said Altaf Kassam, State Street Global Advisors’ EMEA head of investment strategy and research in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I don’t think the market is quite positioned that strongly for the upside. but at the same time, we do expect the numbers to keep trending downwards.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% with tech, banks and energy the strongest-performing sectors in Europe. On the data front, German CPI was -.5% MoM vs cons -.5% (still 10% YoY), while German ZEW economic sentiment improved for the third straight month (highest reading since Feb). Regional focus will turn to central bank decisions later in the week (BOE, ECB and SNB on Thursday. European equity benchmark recovered from Monday’s losses as traders awaited the US release but were also mindful of the European Central Bank’s rate decision due Thursday. The continent’s policymakers are expected to follow the Fed with their own half-point hike. Meanwhile, data showed that UK wages are rising at close to a record pace, maintaining pressure on the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates despite a worsening economic outlook. Here are some of the most notable European movers:

Elior climbed as much as 11% after Citi upgraded the stock to buy, saying it sees a pathway toward deleveraging in coming weeks on conclusion of chairman’s strategic review.
Synthomer shares rise as much as 6% after the company said it would sell its laminates, films and coated fabrics businesses to Surteco North America Inc. for a total enterprise value of approximately $255 million.
Temenos shares rise as much as 5.2% after the software firm said a US financial institution is extending its relationship with the Swiss company.
Lufthansa shares jump as much as 4.8% after the German airline raised its earnings forecast for 2022, boosting shares of regional peers Air France- KLM and British Airways-owner IAG.
Banco BPM gains as much as 4.5% in Milan, the most intraday since Nov. 9, to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after Fondazione Enasarco completed the purchase of a ~1.97% stake in the lender at a price higher than yesterday’s close.
Rolls-Royce Holdings slides as much as 4.1% after JPMorgan placed stock on negative catalyst watch as the broker believes that when new CEO Tufan Erginbilgic addresses investors in February, he’s likely to flag weaker-than-expected free cash flow and a strained balance sheet.
Erste shares fall as much as 3.7% after it was cut to underperform from market perform at KBW on a difficult setup for the Austrian lender into 2023 and an unattractive valuation.
EMS-Chemie falls as much as 3.4% after it was cut to hold at Stifel with the broker saying it expects a weak 4Q for the polymers maker leading into a tough start to 2023.
Novozymes shares falls as much as 2.2% after the company was downgraded to equalweight from overweight at Barclays.

Asian stocks eked out a small gain as Hong Kong scrapped more of its Covid restrictions, supporting sentiment ahead of inflation data that could impact the trajectory of future US interest rates.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, led by financial and industrial shares. Key gauges in Hong Kong advanced while Chinese stocks linked to reopening were mostly higher, after the city’s leader said restrictions on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants will be removed. Most markets rose as some investors held onto hopes that US consumer price inflation — due later Tuesday — could be soft enough to justify a slowdown in rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later this week. The inflation data will be more critical than the Fed’s decision, according to Xi Qiao, managing director for global wealth management at UBS Group AG.

“It’s all going to depend on CPI numbers, whether the Fed is going to pivot or not,” she said on Bloomberg Television. Asian stocks are up about 17% since hitting their lowest level in more than two years in October, boosted by China’s rapid shift away from its zero-tolerance approach to Covid. It remains down about 18% of the year, thanks to its earlier losses from global monetary tightening and China’s draconian lockdown measures.

Japanese equities climbed ahead of US’ reading on consumer prices as a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey report showed that inflation worries are subsiding. The Topix Index rose 0.4% to 1,965.68 as of market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 27,954.85. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.7%. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 1,231 rose and 790 fell, while 143 were unchanged. “If the US CPI growth, released tonight, is as expected, they would have fallen for the fifth month in a row,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “As the slowdown in inflation becomes decisive, there may have been some moves to adjust positions in the US market.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is unchanged; DKK and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and AUD outperform. The greenback was steady to weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers, though most pairs were confined to recent, narrow ranges. Commodity currencies led the advance while the Swiss franc was the worst performer. The Treasury curve bull flattened

The euro traded in a narrow $1.0528-1.0561 range. Yields on German and Italian debt was mostly steady or slightly higher. Overnight volatility in euro-dollar may be off its 2022 highs, yet remains elevated before the much anticipated US CPI release. The gauge trades at 21.19% after touching a one-month high Monday at 23.32%; this suggests a breakeven of around 100 dollar pips

The pound inched up, advancing a fifth straight day against the US dollar, the longest rising streak in over two months. Gilts extended opening losses, pushing yields 5-7bps higher as money markets raised bets on Bank of England rate hikes ahead of its decision Thursday

Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as China’s ambassador to the US said that the nation will continue to relax its strict Covid measures. However, gains were slowed by option-related selling attached to large strikes. Bonds in the two nations eased

The yen neared a December low against the dollar before erasing losses

In rates, Treasury futures drifted higher over Asia, early European session and outperforming core European rates with gains led by long-end of the curve. US yields richer by up to 3.5bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1.2bp and 1.7bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.58%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 3bp and 8bp in the sector. Gilts 10-year yield up some 7 bps to 3.27% while money markets add to their BOE peak rate bets, pricing the bank rate to climb to 4.75% by August. USTs and bunds 10-year yields relatively muted in comparison, trading within Monday’s range. US auction round concludes with $18b 30-year bond reopening at 1pm, follows Monday’s 10-year note sale which tailed the WI by almost 4bp and a solid 3-year note sale. The US session focus includes November inflation print at 8:30 a.m. New York.

In commodities, WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $73.91. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,785/oz.

Looking at the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI release for November. Otherwise though, we’ll get UK employment and Italian industrial production for October, the German ZEW survey for December, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the BoE’s latest Financial Stability Report and subsequent press conference.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,003.75
MXAP up 0.2% to 157.43
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 513.26
Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,954.85
Topix up 0.4% to 1,965.68
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 19,596.20
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,176.33
Sensex up 0.7% to 62,552.76
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,203.27
Kospi little changed at 2,372.40
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 438.53
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.95%
Euro little changed at $1.0538
Brent Futures up 2.0% to $79.54/bbl
Brent Futures up 2.0% to $79.56/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,784.14
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.12% to 105.01

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

While equity traders are bracing for potentially significant stock swings after Tuesday’s US inflation data, their currency counterparts look a little more circumspect. Overnight expectations for swings in major currencies like the yen, euro and Australian dollar are elevated but well off their highs of the year. In fact they indicate the currencies are unlikely to break out of their recent trading ranges
The gap between yields on one-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and similar- dated nominal government notes stands at 2.18%, reflecting market expectations for the average inflation rate over the coming year. That would require price gains to slow by more than 5 percentage points, a pace seen in only three instances in the past six decades
UK average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.1% higher in the three months through October than a year earlier. That’s the most since records began in 2001, barring the height of the coronavirus pandemic
Strikes and industrial action had the biggest impact on the UK in 11 years in October — two months before the latest round of protests crippled public services. At least 417,000 days of work were lost due to labor disputes in October, the most since November 2011, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday
The BOE has recommended the UK take swift regulatory action to strengthen the pensions market after recent bond market turmoil exposed shortcomings in its oversight
The investor outlook for Germany’s economy improved to its highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the latest sign that concerns over a deep winter slump are receding. The ZEW institute’s gauge of expectations climbed to -23.3 in December from -36.7 the previous month, better than economists polled by Bloomberg had predicted
China’s Covid wave is rippling through the nation’s financial industry, with currency volumes falling as traders call in sick and banks activating backup plans to keep operations running smoothly
China is delaying a closely watched economic policy meeting due to start this week after Covid infections surged in Beijing, according to people familiar with the matter
Hong Kong will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly kept afloat following the gains on Wall St where the major indices unwound recent losses although the upside was capped in Asia ahead of US CPI data and a slew of central bank rate decisions. ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in tech, industrials and financials, albeit with gains limited by weakness in miners and after an improvement in consumer confidence was offset by a deterioration in business surveys. Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 28,000 level which it failed to sustain amid tentativeness before the risk events. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as Hong Kong benefitted from reopening optimism amid reports that quarantine-free travel is to begin in January and with Chief Executive Lee announcing an easing of restrictions, while the mainland lacked conviction after weaker-than-expected financing data and with Japan and the Netherlands agreeing in principle to join the US in controlling exports of chipmaking equipment to China.

Top Asian News

China’s ambassador to the US Qin Gang said he believes China’s COVID-19 measures will be further relaxed in the near future and international travel to China will become easier, according to Reuters.
China-Hong Kong quarantine-free travel is to begin in January, according to a report citing local press. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee later announced an end to the COVID contact tracing app requirement and will eliminate the three-day arrival monitoring period, while the Amber code on international arrivals is to be lifted on Wednesday.
Japan and Netherlands have agreed in principle to join the US in tightening controls on exports of advanced chipmaking equipment to China, according to people familiar with the matter cited by SCMP. Japanese Trade and Industry Minister Nishimura stated that they will take appropriate measures on chip-related export curbs to China taking into consideration each country’s regulations, while they are checking with Japanese companies on the impact of chip curbs to China and are not hearing of any major impact.
Japan’s government is to use construction bonds for part of SDF facilities as part of efforts to boost spending, according to Kyodo. However, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki later stated there was no decision yet on whether to issue construction bonds to pay for developing self-defence forces facilities and that generally speaking, it is difficult to regard bonds as a stable funding source, according to Reuters.
China intends to allocate over CNY 1tln as a support package to bolster the domestic semiconductor industry, via Reuters citing sources.
China will delay its economic policy meeting amid a surge in COVID cases in Beijing, Bloomberg reports.

European bourses are firmer across the board Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%, though action has been choppy with fresh drivers limited. Sectors were initially mixed, but have since moved more convincingly into the green, with Tech outpacing. Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board, though have been choppy alongside European peers but the magnitudes less pronounced pre-CPI, ES +0.5%.

Top European News

EU lawmakers agreed to tougher draft labour rules for the gig economy ahead of negotiations with EU countries to work out the details, according to Reuters.
Swiss SECO Forecasts: confirms its previous assessment. The Swiss economy is expected to grow at a significantly below-average rate of 1.0% in 2023, followed by 1.6% in 2024.
Germany VDMA engineering group confirmed 2022 and 2023 forecasts for German engineering production; sees +1% real production growth in 2022, and a 2% decline in 2023.
BoE Financial Stability Report: Urgent and robust measures needed to fill gaps in LDI fund regulation; must remain resilient to higher level of rates than they can now withstand.

DXY is bid, but has been unable to convincingly breach the 105.00 mark despite a brief foray to 105.09, with peers generally contained vs USD.
At the top of the pile is the AUD despite NAB data with Westpac consumer metrics assisting ahead of RBA’s Lowe, lifting to 0.6800.
CAD & NOK have seen a modest rebound given benchmark pricing and in wake of recent pressure, particularly in the CAD.
EUR is modestly softer despite constructive ZEW data, albeit mixed vs exp., while USD/JPY has slipped after a failed test of 138.00.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746vs exp. 6.9758 (prev. 6.9565)

Fixed Income

EGBs have been pressured throughout the morning, with Bunds initially lagging though they have staged a marked rebound to downside of just 20 ticks.
Amidst this, Gilts were dented by relatively soft UK supply, though have since reverted to pre-auction levels while BTPs were bid on their own outing.
USTs buck the trend and remain modestly firmer ahead of 30yr supply and US CPI.

Commodities

Overall, the crude benchmarks have been relatively steady throughout the European morning posting upside in excess of 1.0% and remain towards the top-end of yesterday’s parameters.
Spot gold and silver are modestly firmer despite the choppy, but ultimately modestly constructive, risk tone. Though, the yellow metal is capped by USD 1790/oz and the 200-DMA a dollar below.
Ecuador’s state oil firm Petroecuador said a weather power outage affected hundreds of wells in its most productive blocks, according to Reuters.
Italy PM Meloni says the majority of EU member states back a dynamic gas price cap; EU Commission’s energy proposal is still in adequate.

Geopolitics

US shipped the first portion of its grid equipment aid to Ukraine, according to US officials.
EU ambassadors unanimously approved in principle a financial support package to provide Ukraine with EUR 18bln in 2023, according to the Czech Republic.
South Korean envoy for Korean peninsula peace said North Korea is becoming more aggressive and blatant in its nuclear threat, while South Korea, Japan and the US will coordinate sanctions and close gaps in the international sanctions regime. Furthermore, the US envoy for North Korea said Pyongyang’s behaviour presents one of the most serious security challenges in the region and beyond, while the Japanese envoy for North Korea said the three countries have elevated their security cooperation to an unprecedented level and they will examine all options including counter-strike capabilities and will be more vigilant against North Korea’s cyber threat, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

06:00: Nov. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, est. 90.5, prior 91.3
08:30: Nov. CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
08:30: Nov. CPI YoY, est. 7.3%, prior 7.7%
08:30: Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30: Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.1%, prior 6.3%
08:30: Nov. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -2.8%, revised -2.7%
08:30: Nov. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.7%, revised -3.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m still trying to recover from watching the last episode of one of the most popular TV series this year last night, namely “The White Lotus”. It was a brilliantly uncomfortable series to watch. No spoilers here though. On the last EMR before Xmas I always list my top 10 TV series/box sets of the year. This will feature highly but there is currently an unusual number one that we just finished watching over the weekend. It was brilliant but I suspect not many of you will have seen it. The clue is that it is a dramatised true story about an event that happened 50 years ago this year. Anyone that gets it from that clue will win the highest-value prize our compliance team can authorise – a very big well done email.

Today we have the last in the series of another 2022 epic and that’s the final US CPI to be released this year. Indeed, we don’t get many days as important as the next two, and the US CPI today and the FOMC tomorrow are likely to be the difference between a big Santa Claus rally and a visit from Scrooge ahead of Christmas. Bear in mind the S&P 500’s best and worst day of the year so far have both come on a CPI day, and it was only last month that the downside surprise triggered a seismic market reaction, leading to the biggest one-day gain for the S&P 500 (+5.54%) since April 2020, and the largest daily decline in the 2yr Treasury yield (-24.7bps) since 2008. Since close of business the day before the last release the S&P 500 is +6.46%, 2yr yields -20.4bps, 10yr yields -49.6bps and the USD index -5.05%.

The big question now is whether last month’s positive surprise was like July’s, which was then followed by far more negative prints in August and September, or whether this is the start of a more durable shift in inflation that would allow the Fed to ease off.

Our colleagues in the Asset Allocation team (link here) wrote on Friday about event vol heading into the CPI data and the FOMC decisions. Their view is that a build-up of massive vol premium heading into the last two CPI prints (and its subsequent dissipation) was a key driver of the outsized rallies. They think that if the event vol premium stays at current levels, then a post-event rally is still more likely, whereas a selloff would require inflation to surprise strongly on the upside. So if they’re right the risk/reward favours a rally after these two big events this week.

In terms of what to look out for today, our US economists are expecting a +0.21% monthly gain in headline CPI (consensus 0.3%), which in turn would take the year-on-year measure down to +7.2% (consensus 7.3%). On core CPI, they see it coming in at a stronger +0.29% (consensus 0.3%), which would take year-on-year measure to +6.1% (consensus 6.1%). And if we do get a surprise on either side, look out for whether that’s broad-based or driven by outliers, since one of the factors driving last month’s rally was optimism that this was a broader decline in inflation. That said, whatever the number is there won’t be any chance to hear from Fed officials, since they’re now deep into their blackout period ahead of tomorrow’s decision.

Ahead of the CPI release, yesterday saw 10yr US Treasuries edge +3.3bps higher to 3.61%, albeit having come back from an intraday low of 3.52%. The intraday turnaround started early in New York trading but was probably helped by a 10yr auction that didn’t have the best reception. It remains to be seen if that was the result of wary investors ahead of CPI or just holiday-induced lack of liquidity. For their part, 2yr Treasuries largely moved in parallel, climbing +3.1bps to 4.38%.

There was a bit of an increase in terminal rate pricing, with Fed funds futures for the May 2023 meeting up +2.0bps to 4.98%. But fundamentally it’s still in the range around 5% where it’s been for the last two months, and the big question is whether today’s release will see it durably break out from that zone in either direction. Over in Europe, there was also a modest rise in yields ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps) and OATs (+0.8bps) moving higher, with BTPs (-0.6bps) retreating a touch.

In the meantime, US equities posted a strong recovery following last week’s declines, with the S&P 500 up +1.43% on the day. Energy stocks were the biggest driver of that amidst a rally in oil prices, and Brent crude (+2.48%) advanced to $77.99/bbl, moving back into positive territory on a YTD basis. Overnight they’ve risen a further +1.31%, advancing to $79.01/bbl on the back of optimism about China’s reopening boosting the demand outlook. However, at the other end of the equity leaderboard were the megacap tech stocks, with the FANG+ index down -0.14% on the day. And back in Europe, equities lost ground as they caught up with the late US selloff on Friday, with the STOXX 600 down -0.49%.

Overnight, Asian equity markets have put in a mixed performance after rising shortly after the open. The Hang Seng (+0.38%) is in positive territory following the news that Hong Kong is further easing its Covid restrictions, and it was confirmed that the ban on international arrivals going to bars or restaurants would end, and people would no longer require to scan a QR code to enter venues. That was particularly beneficial to more Covid-sensitive assets, such as airlines and leisure stocks. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.40%) is trading higher whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.06%), the CSI 300 (-0.19%) and the KOSPI (-0.25%) have moved lower. In the meantime, US equity futures are pointing modestly lower ahead of today’s CPI release, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.13%) both down a bit.

There wasn’t much on the data side yesterday, although the Fed did get some promising news on inflation expectations, since the New York Fed’s latest survey showed expectations decreasing over all time horizons. For instance, the one-year measure fell to a 15-month low of +5.2%, and the three-year measure ticked down to +3.0% (vs. +3.1% previously). Elsewhere, UK GDP rose by a slightly faster-than-expected +0.5% in October (vs. +0.4% expected), but that growth was partly driven by the bounceback from the September bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI release for November. Otherwise though, we’ll get UK employment and Italian industrial production for October, the German ZEW survey for December, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the BoE’s latest Financial Stability Report and subsequent press conference.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

TUESDAY//MONDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/NETHERLANDS/CHINA/USA

Interesting!! Japan and the Netherlands agree with the uSA to curb exports of chips to the Chinese

(zerohedge)

Japan, Netherlands Agree To US Request To Curb Chinese Chip Exports

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 10:00 PM

In a move that is sure to set Sino-Japanese relations several years back, on Monday morning Japan and the Netherlands agreed “in principle” to join the US in tightening controls over the export of advanced chipmaking machinery to China, Bloomberg reported cited according people familiar with the matter, in what is the latest “potentially debilitating blow to Beijing’s technology ambitions.”

The news follows a report from Japan’s Kyodo according to which, the US had “asked the Japanese government for cooperation in stymieing China’s efforts to develop high-end semiconductors.” The request, noting that the countries are allies sharing strategies against China, was made by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo during her phone conversation with Japanese industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura on Friday, according to the sources.

The request made to Nishimura was the first ministerial one from the United States on the issue. Washington’s push to create a multilateral regulatory framework comes amid concerns that there will be loopholes in its export controls if Japan and the Netherlands continue to provide China with devices essential to manufacture advanced chips. It comes after the United States unveiled a sweeping set of export controls on certain high-end chips that could be used by Beijing to train artificial intelligence systems and power advanced applications in the military and surveillance fields.

Last week, Bloomberg News reported that Dutch officials were planning new export controls on China. The Japanese government agreed to similar restrictions in recent weeks since the two countries wanted to act in concert. Japan had to overcome opposition from domestic companies that would prefer not to lose sales into China, sources said. Besides Tokyo Electron, Nikon and Canon are minor players in the market.

In response to the back-door US pressure, Japan and the Netherlands are likely to announce in the coming weeks that they’ll adopt at least some of the sweeping measures the US rolled out in October to restrict the sale of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, according to the people, who asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The Biden administration has said the measures are aimed at preventing Beijing’s military from obtaining advanced semiconductors.

The three-country alliance – if it comes to pass – would represent a near-total blockade of China’s ability to buy the equipment necessary to make leading-edge chips, according to Bloomberg. The US rules restricted the supply from American gear suppliers Applied Materials Inc., Lam Research Corp. and KLA Corp. Japan’s Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Dutch lithography specialist ASML Holding NV are the two other critical suppliers that the US needed to make the sanctions effective, making their governments’ adoption of the export curbs a significant milestone.

“There’s no way China can build a leading-edge industry on their own. No chance,” said Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon.

The three countries are the world’s top sources of machinery and expertise needed to make advanced semiconductors. ASML shares added to losses in Amsterdam on the news and were down 2.2%, in late Monday trading.

Senior US National Security Council official Tarun Chhabra and Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Alan Estevez were in the Netherlands late November to discuss export controls, Bloomberg reported, while Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo talked about the same issues with METI chief Yasutoshi Nishimura via teleconference last week.

With the move, Dutch and Japanese officials will essentially codify and expand their existing export control measures to further restrict China’s access to cutting-edge chip technologies. The two governments are planning to impose a ban on the sale of machinery capable of fabricating 14-nanometer or more advanced chips to China, Bloomberg sources said. The measures align with some rules Washington set out in October.

The 14nm technology is at least three generations behind the latest advances available on the market, but it is already the second-best technology that China’s chipmaking champion Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. owns.

END

3c CHINA /

CHINA/COVID

My goodness: Chinese health experts are now urging Beijing to accelerate approval of enhanced (and deadly) COVID shots amid a winter wave of deaths due to Omicron. What they fail to understand was

the first Chinese jabs were extremely harmful and hurt citizens immune systems

(zerohedge0

Health Experts Urge Beijing To Accelerate Approval Of Enhanced Covid Jabs Amid ‘Winter Wave’ Of Deaths

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 11:20 PM

China’s government dramatically pivoted from its ultra-harsh ‘zero Covid’ policy in the last several weeks, which will likely cause a massive outbreak, as health experts urged Beijing to speed up the approval process of new vaccines to counter Covid-19 variants.

Sinovac and Sinopharm Covid jabs have been widely distributed among the majority of the Chinese population to fight the original Covid strain from Wuhan in 2020. But old vaccines might not be enough to fight variants.

“We can’t rely on old vaccines which are currently being used nationwide going forward,” a Beijing-based adviser to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Financial Times.

The health advisor, who spoke under cover of anonymity, said CDC facilities “are filled with Wuhan virus-based vaccines that aren’t of much use.”

Beijing has yet to approve the latest version of the jabs to target more infectious Covid variants, leaving the older generation vulnerable this cold season.

According to a new projection by Feng Zijian, a former deputy chief at the CDC, relaxed health restrictions could result in 80 to 90% of the Chinese population being injected with the virus.

“It’s going to be inevitable for most of us to get infected once, regardless of how the Covid-fighting measures are adjusted,” Feng said.

While China faces a ‘winter wave’ of deaths as the economy reopens, Beijing has yet to import foreign-made messenger RNA vaccines.

The CDC adviser said that China needed “locally made mRNA vaccines in our toolbox,” which might not arrive until “next April.” There are seven domestic companies in the late stage of clinical trials. The advisor added clinical trial results for the improved Sinovac and Sinopharm jabs will be announced in March, then “the government may issue an emergency use license.”

Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the coming “tsunami” of infections means “China should have an accelerated mechanism for approval to change vaccines based on the circulating strains. There is no need for a full clinical trial.”

Infections across the country are already moving higher.

Covid is rapidly spreading through Chinese households and offices after the country’s pandemic rules were unexpectedly unwound last week, sparking confusion on the ground as ill-prepared hospitals struggle to deal with a surge in cases. -Bloomberg

Dong-yan warned that by the time new jabs are approved, Covid variants would be the dominant strain:

“The regulatory body needs to show some flexibility. Ba. 5 is already giving way to BQ. 1.1 in the US and XBB in Singapore. He added: “They will never catch up.”

So the question we have: Why did Beijing ease zero Covid policies when no preparations have been made to meet the coming winter ‘tsunami’ of infections?

end

Is China coming ???

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

EUROPE/WEATHER

Europe now experiencing its first blast of artic air and that is putting a heavy strain on its power grids

(zerohedge)

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Europe’s cold blast is due to a weak, polar vortex split in the stratosphere, which allowed high pressure to build across Greenland last week. As a result, Arctic air poured over the energy-stricken continent, sending natural gas and power prices higher.

The unseasonably cold weather will continue through this week. North West and Central Europe are recording average temperatures well below normal, boosting residential and commercial heating demand.

In the North West region, temperatures are forecasted to average around 30 degrees Fahrenheit this week, about 10 degrees less than the 30-year mean.

A similar setup is for Central Europe.

The arrival of the cold snap has already sent UK electricity prices to record highs.

Bloomberg’s energy crisis index shows gas storage percentages full for top European countries have already flipped from injections to drawing season. Power prices in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are elevated as the cost of producing electricity is surging.

Here’s a better view of the gas storage situation. Even though significant progress was made to refill storage in an unusually warm autumn, cold snaps will draw down supplies much quicker as supply gaps persist due to Russian flows to the continent severed at some key entry points.

“The first winter blast is placing a heavy strain on European power grids, after a mild autumn allowed utilities to replenish depleted natural gas reserves. The energy crunch has forced some countries to return to coal, with the UK’s National Grid asking two coal-fired units from its winter reserve to run on Monday,” Bloomberg reported.

In a separate report, Bloomberg outlined three reasons why Europe’s addiction to NatGas persists:

First, nuclear outages in France have resulted in the loss of a sizable chunk of electricity generation.
Second, the region is also experiencing low wind output as the technology proves its fickleness during cold weather.
Finally, EU policymakers are discovering the limits of their demand reduction measures.

The arrival of the cold blast is Europe’s first real test of the power grid and NatGas supplies. All eyes will be on the rate of drawdown of NatGas storage.

END

POLAND/EUROPE

Poland aims to create the largest land army in Europe

(Stanko/RemixNews)

Poland Aims To Create Largest Land Army In Europe: Report

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Katarzyna Stañko via Remix News,

Poland aims to create the largest land army in Europe, according to a report from French newspaper Le Figaro, with the paper’s analysis pointing out the colossal weapons contracts signed by Warsaw, including tanks, self-propelled guns, and missile launchers.

Poland is arming quickly and securing weapons at a frantic pace. Prior to contracts with South Korea, Warsaw ordered 250 American Abrams tanks to replace the old Soviet-era tanks it sent to Ukraine and other heavy equipment. The deal signed with the South Korean company Hyundai Rotem for the delivery of tanks will amount to four times the number of Leclerc tanks currently used by the French army.

Le Figaro noted that Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak promised in July that Poland will have the “strongest land forces in Europe.”

The Polish government also plans to increase its number of servicemen to 300,000 by 2035 from the current 170,000. At the same time, the country aims to increase military expenditures in 2023 to 3 percent of its GDP, surpassing all other EU countries, including France, which is planning to reach 2 percent.

Despite the increase in land forces, Poland still falls behind in the air and naval branches compared to France and Britain. However, Warsaw is modernizing these branches of the military as well by signing agreements to receive F-35 fighters and FA-50s, as well as three British frigates and two espionage ships made by the Swedish Saab company.

“For Poles, the Russian threat was always present and will remain this way in the long run,” said former head of the European Defence Agency, Claude-France Arnould.

“Poles were on standby already during the NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008.”

“Those armaments are the evidence of the triumph of the concept of strategic autonomy,” said Frederic Mauro of the International and Strategic Relations Institute.

The Polish government aspires to take on the role as the “leader of NATO’s eastern flank,” while South Korea offers a very attractive price-quality ratio, he said.

“The war of attrition in Ukraine showed how important having large quantities of inexpensive equipment is,” Mauro added. “Today, in Europe with the Ukraine war, we are speaking of a war economy. Having advanced weaponry is not enough, you need to have plenty of it, fast,” concluded the analyst.

END

UK grid operator asks coal plants to be available for backup after temperatures in the UK plummet

(OilPrice.com)

UK Grid Operator Asks Coal Plants To Be Available For Backup

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Josh Owens of OilPrice.com

As temperatures in the UK plummet, National Grid, the transmission system operator, asked two contingency coal-fired power plants to be ready to send more electricity to the grid on Monday if needed.

“We’ve issued a notification to warm two winter contingency coal units. This measure should give the public confidence in Monday’s energy supply,” National Grid said today, as temperatures dropped and snow fell in London, creating traffic chaos.

“This notification is not confirmation that these units will be used on Monday, but that they will be available to the ESO, if required,” the grid operator added.

Later on Monday, the National Grid ESO said it “can confirm that it has now stood down these coal units as there is adequate available contingency for this evening.”

With low temperatures and low wind speeds, wind generated just 7.6% of Britain’s electricity on Saturday, National Grid ESO said on Sunday.

Natural gas generated 62.0% of electricity, more than nuclear 14.4%, wind, and biomass 4.9%. Coal accounted for 3.9% of UK electricity supply on Saturday.

Although the two contingency coal plants were not used today, this was the first time the grid operator has asked those coal units to be on stand-by since the UK postponed in the summer the previously planned closure of several coal-fired plants or units.

In September, Uniper said it would keep a unit at a coal plant in the UK available until the end of March 2023, six months after the original date for closing the unit this month. This extension is driven by the need to boost the UK energy supply through what will be a difficult winter.

Uniper, which operates the Ratcliffe on Soar coal power station in Nottinghamshire, had originally planned to accelerate the coal phase-out in the UK and to close one of four 500 MW units at Ratcliffe as early as the end of September 2022—two years ahead of the date announced by the UK government for the coal phase-out.

UK next day electricity prices surged yesterday to help attract power imports through interconnectors from Europe and record prices are expected during the peak demand hours between 5pm and 7pm on Monday.

end

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Ukraine now witnesses 50% of its energy facilities destroyed

(zerohedge)

With 50% Of Energy Facilities Destroyed, Ukraine Urges West For $1BN In Winter Help

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Ukraine now says that it has lost half of its energy system amid recent stepped-up Russian aerial attacks, which have continued to include suicide drones, some of which are believed supplied by Iran. President Volodymyr Zelensky communicated this in a Monday phone call with President Joe Biden, briefing the US leader on “the consequences of the Russian missile terror, as a result of which about 50% of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure was destroyed.”

In the mid-afternoon on Tuesday (local time), air raid alerts have reportedly been issued all across Ukraine, with sirens blaring in the capital after Zelensky warned that the next major wave of Russian airstrikes are imminent.

Starting Friday Kyiv authorities began revising their estimate upward from the 40% they had been estimating in statements as of weeks ago. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmygal recently described, “Unfortunately, Russia continues missile strikes on Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure, fighting against the civilian population and depriving them of light, water, heat and communications during the winter… Nearly half of our energy system is disabled.”

The past month has witnessed some of the largest missile barrages targeting energy infrastructure to date, which has left whole cities, including Odesa and a number of cities in the south without power amid frigid temperatures.

Also on Monday Zelensky gave a virtual address before G7 leaders, wherein he urged more arms including “modern tanks” and “rocket artillery and more long-range missiles” while acknowledging his military is running low in the face of the more superior-armed Russian forces. He asked G7 nations for “about 2 billion cubic meters” of additional gas to help the population get through winter.

Among the more interesting things he said was that Moscow must withdraw all forces by Christmas. “The occupier must leave. It will certainly happen. I see no reason why Russia should not do it now – at Christmas.” Vowing the the counteroffensive will not stop even as the ground freezes, he appealed for Russia to avoid “further confrontation with the world.”

“Very soon we’ll have holidays celebrated by billions of people. Christmas – according to the Gregorian calendar or the New Year and Christmas – according to the Julian calendar. This is the time for normal people to think about peace, not aggression. I suggest Russia to at least try to prove that it is capable of abandoning the aggression. It would be right to start the withdrawal of Russian troops from the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine this Christmas. If Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine, it will ensure a lasting cessation of hostilities,” the President said, speaking at the G7 Summit.

Following this, on Tuesday Zelensky appealed to an international fundraising conference in Paris hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, saying Ukraine needs 800 million euros to urgently repair damaged infrastructure. Other Ukrainian top officials put this figure at $1 billion…

“The approximate cost of urgent help for the power sector stands at $500 million,” Shmyahl told the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to Reuters. “The approximate cost of urgent help for the centralized heating sector stands at a further $500 million.”

“Of course it is a very high amount, but the cost is less than the cost of a potential blackout,” Zelensky said via video link. “I hope that decisions will be made accordingly.”

“Because of the destruction of our power plants by terror attacks we will need to use more gas this winter than expected,” he described. Zelensky’s wife Olena had traveled to be at the Paris conference in person. As for his appeal for Russia to exit Ukraine by Christmas, this is unlikely to happen given especially President Putin just warned his own citizens to settle in for a “long” campaign in order to achieve Moscow’s military objectives.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE: a must read. The truth behind Zelensky and Ukraine

(Mike Whitney)

4 Minutes Of Undiluted Truth On Mainstream TV

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Mike Whitney,

The last thing you’d ever expect to hear on a mainstream news channel, is the truth.

But – strange as it might seem – that’s exactly what happened on Wednesday night on the Tucker Carlson Show. Carlson interviewed veteran journalist Glenn Greenwald in a 4-minute segment that provided the best ‘easy-to-understand’ summary of the Ukraine War you’ll hear anywhere.

And what was so shocking about the interview, was how casually both men veered onto topics that are essential to grasping “How we got to where we are today” but which are entirely banned on all the other cable news channels.

You are not allowed to know, for example, that Russia was “lured into the conflict in Ukraine”. That does not fit the script that has been passed-along from the Biden State Department to their lapdogs at the cable news stations. You’re also not allowed to know that the US does not fight wars “to spread democracy” or that “the US has no vital interests in Ukraine” or that “Russia is not really our enemy”. All of those topics are verboten. You’re not even allowed to think about these things, which is why– for the most part– they have been completely scrubbed from any-and-all discussion of foreign policy in the corporate media.

That’s what makes the segment with Greenwald such a stunner, because it’s 4 glorious minutes of pure, unvarnished truth delivered from a platform that typically only produces, lies, disinformation and propaganda.

That’s why I transcribed the entire interview. Any mistakes are mine. Here it is:

Tucker Carlson– What bothers me is not so much what Zelensky is doing– there’s a lot of tyranny abound the world (and) I don’t brood on it. But the fact that (a) we are paying for it, and (b) our leaders are defending it. I think every American should be upset about that.

Glenn Greenwald– “I think in general, Americans should be very skeptical when the government says ‘We’re going to fight wars on the other side of the world and spend tens of billions of dollars in military aid to spread democracy.’ The US government doesn’t actually care about spreading democracy. Many of its closest allies in the world have always been some of the world’s most despotic regimes like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. All the US government cares about is whether these regimes serve US interests. …If you want to believe the fairy tale that the US government goes to war to spread democracy, then Ukraine is not the place for you. You mentioned the argument that ‘Zelensky is in war, he has to curb liberty’, but go back to 2021, a year before Russia invaded and you’ll find articles where he shut down opposition television stations and shut down opposition political parties (which is) the hallmark of what every tyrant or despot does….and that was true even before Russia invaded.”

Tucker Carlson– I wonder how Republicans can continue to defend this (because) I think you are right; I think our foreign policy is almost always about defending our interests…. But I don’t see our critical interests at stake here, so, what is this about?

Glenn Greenwald– If the US government was honest… they would get rid of this script that we have to go and defend democracy. That is a fairy tale that tries to get Americans to feel better about the fact that we are involved in many, many countries all over the world. That is not the real reason. The only reason to do it is for ‘vital US interests’. The line in Washington for decades was the US has no vital interests in Ukraine. That was Obama’s view, that was the bipartisan view. Why did that change? The only reason is because we saw an opportunity to trap Russia inside Ukraine all based on the view that Russia is our enemy (which is) something only Democrats should believe because they think Russia is to blame for the 2016 election and Hillary’s defeat. But why would Republicans want confrontation with Russia? What American benefits from that except arms manufacturers? …

Tucker Carlson– That’s a really good question, and I haven’t unraveled it. (But) It seems pretty clear that the Biden administration baited Russia into this invasion. You had the Vice President (Kamala Harris) in western Europe days before telling Zelensky to join NATO which, of course, they knew was a red line (for Russia) They wanted this invasion, I think that’s very obvious. Do you think this was all about ‘preparing for war with Russia’?

Glenn Greenwald– If you think Russia is a grave enemy of the United States, then it makes sense to try to lure them into a war that they can’t win, like we got lured into Afghanistan for 20 years or like we lured the Soviet Union into Afghanistan back in the ’70s because it does deplete your enemy. The question is: Why should Russia be seen as our enemy? Both Obama and Trump said there’s no reason to see Russia that way. It has one-fifteenth the size of our military budget. It’s not threatening American borders. Why are we so obsessed with spending tens of billions of dollars to weaken Russia which we could be using here at home to benefit the lives of American citizens when Russia is not doing anything to the United States unless you are a crazy ‘resistance’ person who believes they’re the reason Donald Trump won. But if you don’t believe that, what is the rational for this? There is none.”

Tucker Carlson– “I know, and as always, they have hijacked the best instincts of the American people, their compassion, and turned it against them. Glenn Greenwald, great to see you tonight”.

end

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA

Huge escalation

US Set To Send Ukraine Patriot Missiles In Huge Escalation

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 01:16 PM

CNN’s chief Pentagon correspondent is reporting the breaking news based on multiple anonymous US defense officials – including a senor Biden administration official – that the White House is currently finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.

“The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official,” CNN writes. “The three officials told CNN that approval is expected.”

If approved, this could be a tipping point in the conflict leading to direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers given transfer of Patriots would mark the longest-range missiles sent to Ukraine thus far.

Washington has so far been reluctant, despite Kiev officials since nearly the start of the invasion making repeat pleas for the US to help “close the sky” – as President Zelensky many months ago urged Congress.

As The Guardian reviewed of the dangers involved in sending the Patriot:

“Long sought by the Ukrainians, the missiles have a range of up to 300km, but so far the US and its allies, including the UK, have declined to supply them because they could be used to hit targets inside Russia. Supplying them would help “bring the war to an end as soon as possible”, Johnson said.

Patriots have long been deployed in neighboring Poland, but Ukrainian leaders have been persistent in requesting them on their own soil amid a major uptick in recent Russian aerial attacks. Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson this week urged in a Wall Street Journal op-ed for the West to get serious about supplying Patriots and other anti-air systems, even including military aircraft.

It’s likely to take some time to deploy the Patriots, given Ukrainians are expected to be trained on operating the sophisticated systems at the US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, per officials cited by CNN. In the meantime Moscow is likely to react fiercely to the news, which could result in more intense and escalatory airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, and command and control bases. Washington, for its part will likely emphasize the purely “defensive” nature of the Patriot systems.

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

ROBERT H : this is a very long interview but it is a must. Take your time and view it over several days

Great interview

https://youtu.be/zIIM043x_FI

While a little long this interview is interesting to anyone trying to understand the Ukrainian conflict and where America is today

.

6 GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES/

Catastrophic Contagion: Bill Gates, Johns Hopkins, & The WHO Just Simulated Another Pandemic (Video) »

This is complete rubbish!

The WHO is a bought and paid for organization with no independence of thought or action. It is truly sad to watch how many people and organizations are being bought and paid for, for the purpose of depopulation by the likes of Gates who have never cared for Humanity. If he gave a shit, he would feed the poor with his money instead of trying to feed everyone with insects.

With mandatory Vaccine Passports now coming now, watch for further restrictions on future travel and work while politicians get greased with money to mandate so called vaccinations with who knows what in them. Your ordinary coveted national Passport will be rendered meaningless for travel. Frankly, it already has been with so called travel restrictions due to vaccine status. Now it will be made permanent. All this noise about travel restrictions in Europe will get far worse next year. Wait until access to bank accounts is tied in to vaccination levels. Why, because it has been discussed and it is only a sense of political fear of being too early, that holds back such action. Canada witnessed what happens when a government decides to tighten the screws on a particular group like the Truckers who saw their bank accounts frozen and public donations were seized or frozen. This was a wake up call to what government can do, and will do. What does this say about citizenship in Western countries? Is the West really saying goodbye to democracy and freedom? Or was this all illusion that some people are waking up to? Is there a point to existence as a slave when one had freedom? These are questions we all need to ask of ourselves before we can no longer ask. It is like watching the nightly news and being told that people are stealing meat from Walmart to feed themselves in America while being told about many ten’s of billions of dollars being wasted in the Ukraine while ordinary Americans are forced to steal to eat. What logic exists in such actions ? Does such actions serve the public good or other interests? Ancient societies be it in Europe or Africa or elsewhere worked in village like settings where no one went hungry unless they all did. What have we learnt about our fellow benevolence?

I wager that this will be the West’s undoing as the Collective South says PISS OFF and the sun fades on the West. There will be no place for the WHO or Gates or Soros there. George Orwell never quite imagined the insanity we are seeing and experiencing. And then again perhaps he did explaining that the globe would be divided into 3 zones constantly in conflict with one another. Our memories of times prior to COVID are fading into the good old days and new realities and circumstances come to be.

As we now approach a festive holiday time with friends and family in celebration, we may wish to reflect on what we truly are thankful for and what we want going forward as opposed to what we will be forced to accept otherwise.

Catastrophic Contagion: Bill Gates, Johns Hopkins, & The WHO Just Simulated Another Pandemic (Video)

Cheers

Robert

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

GLOBAL ISSUES

PAUL PAUL ALEXANDER

China is in deep trouble, can fall!: “Western Scientists Cheered On China’s Covid Repression” (WSJ); Many public-health elites still won’t admit it was a mistake for West to adopt Beijing’s strategy

Well written piece by Allysia Finley and it is a wonder WSJ published this! My take, omicron will spread (and other variants) & China may actually fall, 1 billion infected, the world is in trouble!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERDEC 12

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

If what we think does occur, China could fracture and fall as a nation as its entire population is at risk of COVID infection. It will be overwhelmed. I have written and you have read here, that China’s ZERO COVID was insane and that it had locked down too long and too hard. It has no background immunity to rely upon and its entire population is susceptible to infection, and the virus is about to infect everyone in China all at once. A nightmare for China and the world if this unfolds, and if they also rapidly try to mass vaccinate and not allow the vaccinal antibodies to mature to get to its full affinity (binding capacity). They could drive massive natural selection pressure and thus massive waves of infectious variants for the rest of the world. The world is in trouble now because of China’s insane ZERO-COVID policy.

SOURCE:

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/western-scientists-cheered-on-chinas-covid-repression-beijing-pandemic-lockdowns-mandate-public-health-experts-zero-11670789317

‘China’s zero-Covid policies have recently come under criticism from public-health leaders—including those at the World Health Organization—who once held them up as a model for the West. “China’s success rests largely with a strong administrative system that it can mobilise in times of threat, combined with the ready agreement of the Chinese people to obey stringent public health procedures,” the Lancet editorialized on March 7, 2020.

Western countries, it added, “must abandon their fears of the negative short-term public and economic consequences that may follow from restricting public freedoms as part of more assertive infection control measures.” That hasn’t worn well. The negative social and economic consequences of lockdowns in the West—from learning losses and destroyed small businesses to alcoholism and drug abuse—weren’t “short-term.”

Nor were China’s draconian zero Covid policies, which three years later are only slowly being eased. As hospitals in New York filled up, public-health experts fawned at China’s putative command-and-control of Covid. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and one the media’s top-cited public-health scolds, tweeted on March 27, 2020, that “China w/ 4 times the population of the US was able to flatten their curve.” He added: “Our (US) lack of learning from a region that was hit months before us is striking.” Dr. Topol still insists that China’s repressive policies “worked well until containment of Omicron became impossible,” though most people now acknowledge that they were socially and economically unsustainable.

Many, however, still won’t admit it was a mistake for Western democracies to follow China’s strategy. Why did they believe it was a good idea? A charitable explanation is that China’s Communist Party bamboozled Western public-health officials by projecting competence and control. The National Institutes of Health sent deputy director Clifford Lane to China in February 2020 on a World Health Organization mission to assess the situation on the ground. “The Chinese were managing this in a very structured, organized way,” he explained in an April 2020 NIH newsletter. “Dr. Lane was very impressed about how, from a clinical public health standpoint, the Chinese were handling the isolation, the contact tracing, the building of facilities to take care of people, and that’s what I believed he meant when he said [they] were managing this in a very structured, organized way,” Anthony Fauci stated during a deposition last month.

Yet one merely needed to pick up a newspaper or scroll the web to learn otherwise. “Lisa Wang was fighting a high fever when she was turned away from an overflowing hospital in Wuhan,” CNN reported on Feb. 23, 2020. “A chest scan showed her lungs were infected, but she couldn’t get treated for the novel coronavirus she likely had because there weren’t enough beds at the Wuhan Third Hospital, a doctor told her. Instead, she was given medication and instructed to self-quarantine at home.” Later, she was “forced into a makeshift quarantine center at a technology park—putting her at risk of cross-infection with hundreds of other patients warehoused in the bare-bones facility.”

Chinese who contracted or were exposed to the virus were forced into isolation centers, which weren’t as pleasant as tuberculosis sanitariums a century ago. “Bags of garbage, including unfinished meals and used masks, were piling up on the floor, and no medicine or treatment were provided to patients apart from daily temperature checks,” CNN reported. “There was no central heating inside.” Yet by Dr. Fauci’s account, Dr. Lane concluded that “the Chinese had a very organized way of trying to contain the spread in Wuhan and elsewhere,” even though he never visited Wuhan. A Feb. 28, 2020, report by the WHO-China Joint Mission hailed the country’s Covid response as the most “ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.”

It lauded the “deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.” The report also commended China for its high-tech methods of population surveillance: “New technologies were applied such as the use of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) to strengthen contact tracing and the management of priority populations.” But public-health officials in the West may not have been deceived by China’s displays of virus control as much as envious of its government’s ability to subjugate its citizens and censor social-media users who raise questions. “There is no right to lie,” Lancet editor in chief Richard Horton wrote in a Feb. 22, 2022 editorial.

“In very specifically defined instances, governments should have the power to censor lies and falsehoods.” In practice, that means any dissent from publichealth orthodoxy. Look no further than Dr. Topol, who described this column’s recent explainer on the shortcomings of bivalent boosters as “fallacious,” offering nothing to substantiate the claim. China’s three years of coercion and suppression of its people show why political debate on public-health issues is essential. If elites are so enamored with China’s command-and-control model, they should move there.

See my prior substacks:

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

China exploding! “Top China expert says Covid ‘spreading rapidly’ after rules easing”; look back at my substack below dated November 29th; I said this, the only way is to open up, allow infections

SOURCE: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221211-top-china-expert-says-covid-spreading-rapidly-after-rules-easingAlexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

END

Open in app or online

Natural immunity: Dr. Paul Alexander updates Brownstone Institute review showing over 160 pieces of evidence supporting natural innate and acquired-adaptive immunity as superior to vaccine immunity

We should have never forced COVID vaccines on anyone when the evidence shows that naturally acquired immunity is equal to or more robust & superior to existing vaccines.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERDEC 11

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SOURCE:

160 Plus Research Studies Affirm Naturally Acquired Immunity to Covid-19: Documented, Linked, and Quoted

Upgrade to paid

END

Open in app or online

China exploding! “Top China expert says Covid ‘spreading rapidly’ after rules easing”; look back at my substack below dated November 29th; I said this, the only way is to open up, allow infections

see new graph of China’s infections as of today, the Y axis is wonky, key is YES, massive infections, due to no background immunity, they must use early anti-viral drugs, open up full, get infected!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERDEC 11

SAVE ▷ LISTEN

SOURCE:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221211-top-china-expert-says-covid-spreading-rapidly-after-rules-easing

‘One of China’s top health experts has warned of a surge in Covid-19 cases, state media said Sunday, in the wake of the government’s decision to abandon its hardline coronavirus strategy.’

Shops and restaurants in Beijing are deserted as the country awaits a spike in infections following the decision to reduce the scope of mandatory testing, allow some positive cases to quarantine at home and end large-scale lockdowns.

Top epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan told state media in an interview published Sunday that the Omicron strain of the virus prevalent in China was highly transmissible and could lead to a surge in cases.

“The (current) Omicron mutation… is very contagious… one person can transmit to 22 people,” said Zhong — a leading advisor to the government throughout the pandemic.”

Of course there will be a surge, there is no background immunity to handle omicron etc. They have to be brave and open up, protect the elderly principally and use early treatment. See my substack below to Xi as a guide as to what must be done. It is that simple.

Also, see Japan today and see South Africa today and you know the history, it has to do with lockdowns, use of early treatment, how much vaccine uptake etc. in the midst of an ongoing pandemic that drives viral immune escape and more infectious variants. China has no choice but to open up. Now.

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

China is in trouble with COVID omicron (soon BQ.1.1) because its lockdowns have been too long & too harsh (like Australia et al.) so its population has NO (near zero) background natural immunity

The most valuable entity today, most precious gift you can ever have today, November 29th 2022, is an immune system that has not been vaccinated/primed using the COVID gene injections. If you have faced the last 3 years and no vaccine, and you did the right things and stood strong, you have a prize inside you that is priceless, worth billions. The vacci…

Open in app or online Yes, we are indeed living in virus hell for besides all of the pandemic response being a lie and failing, we have a COVID gene injection that will keep this virus ongoing for 100 years, they know itWe’re living in virus hell The kids are sick. The parents are not well. Wasn’t this year supposed to be easier? Well, we severely damaged our prior functional immune systems, especially for kidsDR. PAUL ALEXANDERDEC 12 SAVE ▷ LISTEN SOURCE:https://www.washingtonpost.com/parenting/2022/12/09/parents-children-virus-sick/Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Upgrade to paid The first positive coronavirus test in our household occurred Oct. 26, and in the beginning, we were fools who believed it might be over fast — my husband was quarantined in the basement; perhaps the rest of us would be spared. Five days later, I tested positive. Then our preschool-aged daughter did. Then our toddler was diagnosed with RSV, which devolved into a terrible cough, which turned out to be pneumonia.

After 20 days trapped at home together, during which time my children started referring to their Pedialyte ice pops as “ice lollies” because they’d watched 4,000 episodes of “Peppa Pig,” my son at last returned to day care. He lasted two entire days before contracting a new virus, this one accompanied by the sudden appearance of hideous red welts all over his body, which sent him to urgent care just before midnight. Over three weeks, we’d gone from bad to worse to biblical.

Wasn’t this year supposed to be better? (Or was that just something we told ourselves as we limped toward the fading mirage of normalcy?) Instead, the onslaught of viruses this fall has been so monstrous and relentless that it seems like every parent I know — friends, colleagues, neighbors, everyone — has a story to tell. These are not nice stories. These are stories narrated in a distinctly fatigued-yet-frantic tone, and they always feature specific, memorized numbers: The precise degree of a fever, the tally of missed days of school and work, the frequency of visits to the pediatrician or urgent care or the emergency room. “I have a 5-year-old and an 8-year-old who started kindergarten and third grade, respectively, the first week of September,” says Alexis McGrath of Parsippany, N.J., who described her family’s experience by email. “Since then, there literally hasn’t been a single week when at least two of us haven’t been home sick.” So far, the siege has spanned three upper-respiratory infections, numerous high fevers, relentless congestion and two confirmed cases of pinkeye, she says. “I. AM. SO. TIRED.”

Kate Kearns wrote to me from her bed, where she was slogging through day seven of the flu: “My 3-year-old is napping next to me, radiating heat with a temp of 102 and moaning softly,” she says. “We’ve only had two or three weeks since the beginning of September where both kids were actually in school/preschool for the entire week.”

“Last week was Langston’s first full week of school in the month of November,” says Jonathan Freeman-Coppadge, who lives in Delaware with his husband and their 7-year-old son, who came home from school with the flu a few weeks ago. “It took 24 hours and three pharmacies to find his antibiotic.”“I’ve been in the office maybe 10 times in the last two months — only twice in November,” Kelly Trout of McLean, Va., told me. Her family of four, including a 4-year-old and a 2-year-old, has been sick virtually nonstop since Oct. 4; her daughter came home from school the week after Thanksgiving with a 102-degree fever, and tested positive for the flu. Trout says she felt resigned: “I’m pretty sure we all have it.”

What is happening to us? If, like me, you’ve scoured the internet through bloodshot eyeballs while listening to your child’s chest-rattling coughs all night, you already know that the available information is neither entirely clear nor particularly reassuring. This year’s “tripledemic” — the dreaded collision of covid, RSV and the flu — is unprecedented in recent history, its origins mysterious, possibly attributed to “immune debt” or “viral interference” or to the way the masses have changed their behavior through the course of the pandemic.

Whatever the precise convergence of causes, the result is a full-blown public health crisis and the worst flu season in over a decade. Hospitals are overrun, antibiotics and fever-reducing medications are in short supply, and parents — who have already been running on fumes for literal years — have been reduced to tears and torrents of curses texted to one another at 3 a.m. when yet another thermometer reading confirms yet another fever. After my son broke out in welts, I took him to the pediatrician for his fourth visit in three weeks. The nurse told me, in a vaguely haunted voice: “I have been doing this for more than 20 years. I have never, ever seen a fall like this.” This did not make me feel better, exactly, because no one wants to live through the Middle Ages Redux, but it did help me take it less personally — to know that ours was not the only family felled by a ceaseless barrage of plagues, that this wasn’t an indictment of our personal hygiene or a sign that we’d been cursed by a witch. Lexa Lemieux, a mom in Bethesda, Md., told me she had similarly dark thoughts when she gathered with friends and family at a lake house over Thanksgiving. Her household had recently recovered from covid, but she took her runny-nosed 4-year-old daughter to the pediatrician before the holiday just in case, wanting to be sure she wasn’t a risk to their friend’s infant. All seemed fine at first, but then: “We all started dropping like flies,” Lemieux says. “Everyone was coughing. Several of us were throwing up. The baby was screaming through the night. One of my friends missed Thanksgiving dinner altogether. My mother, who had driven up to join us for a few days in our vacation home, became sick immediately. The trip was nicknamed Thanksgiving of the Damned. We began to wonder if the house was located at the portal of hell.” Coping with back-to-back infections is overwhelmingly stressful and exhausting, at best; at worst, especially for parents of medically vulnerable kids or those who don’t have the privilege of a flexible workplace, it’s downright terrifying. Meanwhile, even amid the tripledemic, babies and preschoolers are still beset by the usual repulsive miseries: impetigo; hand, foot and mouth; lice; roseola — a litany of ailments that look and sound like they belong running rampant through a Dickensian orphanage. Add to this mess the horror of not knowing whether you’ll actually be able to get your hands on Children’s Tylenol, Motrin or amoxicillin, and of course parents are coming unglued.

When, we beg, can we get a break?

Kearns points out that the old rules don’t seem to apply: In the time before this, one could usually count on a couple of weeks (or at least days) of good health between illnesses; it felt possible to discern whether a kid was coughing because of a new bug or a lingering one. “Now it’s constant,” Kearns says. “It is completely [expletive] unhinged.” When Lemieux was crouched in the bathroom, violently ill at the onset of her flu, she says she yelled out loud, to no one: “BUT WEJUSTHAD COVID!” Despite this chaos, there is still work to get done, children to care for, the incessant demands of daily life. Parenting means constantly looking for the silver linings, and so far I’ve identified two: 1. Sick kids can be atypically sedate and snuggly, which is sweet if they aren’t too disgusting; and 2. If society crumbles, and the resurrection of art and culture depends entirely on the recollections of “Fahrenheit 451”-style wanderers who have committed certain works to memory, I am fully prepared to dictate “Encanto” frame for frame.

Now the winter holidays are fast approaching, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that everyone start masking again, and people keep telling Lemieux, “At least you had all this before Christmas!” This is intended as optimism, but she hears it as ominous foreshadowing: “I immediately want to knock on wood and light some sage.”

Her words reminded me that my sister-in-law actually gave me a bunch of sage, as a half-joke, after our recent bout of illnesses. I thought about how my son has started coughing again this week, and I eyed the sage. Why not, I thought, and set it alight, and waved it around. And then I inhaled the smoke, and started coughing. And kept coughing. It’s been an hour, and I’m still coughing, but it’s just the sage. It’s the sage, right?’

VACCINE IMPACT//

Banks Freeze Funds of Pro-Free Speech Video Platform Bitchute

December 12, 2022 6:07 pm

As our regular readers know, Health Impact News is committed to publishing the truth and exposing evil, wherever that path leads, as I own 100% of the Health Impact News network with no debt and no investors. I also do not derive any personal income from Health Impact News, as my income comes from my online store, Healthy Traditions. Therefore, we can publish anything we want, and we can afford to lose readers who are offended by the Truth. Of course that has been happening in mass since 2020, not only because of Big Tech censorship, but also because we do not support either political party in the United States, and therefore expose evil from both the Right and Left political spectrum. This has led to many on the Right, especially Trump supporters, to attack us and stop reading our articles. When it comes to publishing video content, since YouTube has no longer been an option for some time now, we have found Bitchute to be the best platform, mainly because they we can turn off comments there to silence the trolls, mostly from the Right, and because Bitchute doesn’t seem to take a political position one way or another. When it comes to searching for videos that may be banned elsewhere, Bitchute is the best platform, by far. Based out of the U.K., Bitchute has been our safest place to publish video content. Many other video platforms that claim to promote “free speech” really only mean Right Wing “free speech.” We had to mostly stop publishing on Rumble, for example, because there is no way to turn off comments, and it was too time consuming to babysit the comment section where many people on the Right wanted to attack us and trash our videos. Rumble has also deleted some of our videos with no warning and no explanations. I don’t call that “pro-free speech,” especially when your enemies and critics can come in and hijack your content and you have no way to ban them or turn off comments. We left Gab for similar reasons. On most of these alternative “pro-free speech” platforms, it is just assumed that you support Trump and MAGA political talking heads. We do not. However, Bitchute is now under attack themselves, and banks are freezing their assets, putting this excellent online video platform in danger. They are trying to get their message of censorship out to the rest of the world with a campaign they have started on GiveSendGo, which we are republishing here. Health Impact News does NOT accept donations, and any donations sent to us are returned to the sender. So we would never ask the public for money. I do recommend supporting Bitchute, however, as this online platform will be a huge loss to the Health Freedom Movement if the Globalists get their way and force them off the Internet.

Bailouts Start: Union Pensions Get $36 BILLION as BIS Warns of Potential Catastrophic Financial Collapse in 2023

December 12, 2022 8:09 pm

After betraying the U.S. Railroad Unions last week by forcing them into a labor agreement they did not want, the Biden Administration announced $36 BILLION bailout of pensions with 350,000 union members, including many truck drivers. I wonder how many union members will actually sleep soundly after this promise by President Biden? Will that money actually be there when they retire, and if so, what will its value be? The big financial news of the past week came out of Switzerland and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) which reported that there are $80 trillion of hidden, off-balance sheet dollar debt in FX swaps (derivatives.) Shortly after this report was issued, analysts at BlackRock stated that we should “get ready for a recession unlike any other,” and that Central Banks will not be able to bail out everyone.

Your Second-To-Last Chance To Get It Wrong In 2022

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 08:25 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Second-to-last chance to get it wrong in ’22!

It’s US inflation day. The median market expectation is 0.3% m-o-m and 7.3% y-o-y headline, and 0.3% m-o-m and 6.1% y-o-y core. Nobody knows what we will actually get. Energy prices are still declining, despite massive opacity over what is actually going on, but there are whispers of another hot number in services similar to Europe. Either way, if you need me to tell you this report will have a large market impact then you are in the wrong job. As such, I am going to talk about things related to inflation, not today’s release.

The IMF Global Debt Database released yesterday showed the largest one-year decline in global public and private debt-to-GDP ratios since the 1950s: it fell 10 percentage points (ppts) in 2021, following the largest one-year increase in 2020, when it soared 29ppts of GDP. I would imagine 2022 has seen an even steeper debt decline in those terms. After all, I am no gold-bug, and SBF just –finally!– got arrested in the Bahamas, but this debt decline is not a bug, it is a feature – it’s always been one of the reasons why we have high inflation. As such, anyone seriously thinking we must get back to low inflation and low nominal GDP growth again when debts are so high is not being serious about our real underlying problems.

Indeed, nominal debt continues to escalate at a terrifying pace in both the public and the private sector. With recession looming, and massive energy bailouts to keep households and industry afloat, and urgent infrastructure funding, and major wars and national defence to cover, to say nothing of striking workers who all deserve better pay deals, public and private debt will only go higher from here. The only issue is if the money goes into productive areas, like supply, as a way to bring inflation down slowly, or unproductive ones, like demand and financial bubbles. We also know that debt will increase even if we try self-destructive efforts to embrace austerity.

The solution offered via austerity is to export one’s way out at everyone else’s expense. China is now mirroring Japan in doing that, as Europe and the US embrace protectionism too. Recent China trade numbers showed both its imports and exports collapsing in y-o-y terms: we are all full of others’ stuff, and nobody is going to be able to rely on external demand to bail them out ahead. But if austerity won’t work, that doesn’t leave a lot of good alternative options.

Relatedly, I got some feedback on a recent Global Daily that made one of its long-running points independently and brilliantly. In short, it noted that the low inflation, low rates, high free trade world was over, not because corporations want it to be, but because the smart ones see it has had all the juice squeezed out of it.

You can’t pay Western workers any less, or outsource any more, and not face ‘Marxian’ consequences: there is no sustainable demand there now – debts are too high, and any new bubbles without physical supply are too inflationary. As such, the only logical path is greater regionalisation and onshoring, even though it is also inflationary, as at least that means higher demand, higher domestic supply to moderate it over time, and greater recycling of capital/profits within a sustainable ecosystem. Of course, geopolitics is accelerating this process. However, it is the lack of final demand at the forefront of some minds – and the solution is clearly no longer ‘lower for longer’. That should be worth considering ahead of US CPI today.

More observant readers might also immediately recognise that “mercantilism” and “the 1930s” are about to make an appearance. But note it was not inflation but deflation, deliberately pushed by Germany’s Brüning to break unions, that led to the 1930s. It was not a race to the bottom in currencies but unsustainable debts post-WW1. Behind WW1 was shifting geopolitics, with British imperial power fading as it lost its mercantile strength outside captive markets, as Germany’s and that of the US rose. That should also be worth considering ahead of US CPI today.

Some do, but get the cause and effect wrong. For example, ‘Let’s not repeat the 1930s’ op-eds, which reject any shift from free-trade globalisation as above, which coincidentally are very helpful to asset prices, point to Europe’s successful building of a new, peaceful economic model post-1945 based on that kind of free trade. However, this is yet another false reading of history: after WW2, European countries continued to fight wars for imperial market share outside Europe – it’s just that they lost them all, leaving intra-European trade as their main fall-back option, until globalisation restarted. Think of France and its Indochinese and North African empire and retreat; Britain and its Middle-Eastern and African territories; and the Dutch and Indonesia. Also recall the Central African Franc and West African Franc, tied to the Euro and run by (and, critics say, for) France, remains in place today for a combined population in 14 countries of 193 million. The key point is free trade –with low inflation– was only adopted via military defeat, not intellectual victory: Europe actually wanted to maintain imperial privilege.

The only country that accepted free trade via victory was the US, and it only did so for a subset of countries: trade was only aimed at helping geopolitical friends. On that front, The Economist yesterday published: ‘Aaron Friedberg says the West should abandon efforts to integrate a hostile, revisionist China: Democracies must recreate a strong liberal bloc and resist authoritarian aggression, says the Princeton professor’. This is a very old theme here, and a very unpopular argument in the rest of the world, including in Europe. However, as a very smart friend remarked to me recently, it pays to play both sides when the US always forgets and moves on, but China is far less forgiving: better to hedge ones bets until the very last moment.

But those moments may be arriving: China has just taken the US to the WTO over its export controls on semiconductors – as Bloomberg reports both Japan and the Netherlands are likely to follow the US lead. Moreover, the US has openly rejected WTO criticism of its aluminium tariffs, saying national security (i.e., supply and jobs) transcends WTO rules.

As such, when you look at things from a structural, political-economy, or geopolitical perspective, it is hard not to see major inflation risks for a long time ahead. That doesn’t mean we can’t get a low US CPI print today –we can– or that we wouldn’t see pockets of deflation alongside a recession next year – we could. But what about after that, if you are trading the long end of the yield curve, or taking a buy-and-hold equity position? Are we really going back to low inflation, low growth, low wage growth, low rates, high debts, high asset prices, and high reliance on China for goods and Russia for commodities?

It’s up to you how you want to play that big picture –most just ignore it in my experience– but today’s US CPI number is your second-to-last chance to get something closer to home wrong in 2022: the final one is the Fed meeting later this week. That’s as the Bank of Canada governor just said he’s more worried about not raising interest rates high enough to quell inflation than he is about inflicting additional economic pain – which should be worth considering as well.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Why Supertanker Rates Are Suddenly Crashing

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

Supertanker rates reached record levels earlier this year.
Very Large Crude Carrier rates have plunged to just $38,000 per day, falling some 62% from a few weeks ago.
OPEC+ cuts and waning SPR releases are short-term volume headwinds in the oil transportation sector.

Earlier in the year, supertanker freight rates hit record levels as traders scrambled to park crude in storage to take advantage of a record gap between spot and future prices shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. Freight rates for very large crude-oil carriers (VLCC) along the Middle East Gulf to China route reached as high as $180,000 a day while VLCC time charter rates for floating storage jumped to as much as $120,000 per day.

But the situation has now reversed with supertanker rates plunging sharply. According to Bloomberg, ships capable of hauling 2 million barrels of crude are now earning about $38,000 a day, down 62% from just weeks ago after OPEC+ cut production and reduced releases from US reserves lowered seaborne volumes, Bloomberg reports.

“Clearly OPEC+ cuts and waning SPR releases would both be short-term volume headwinds. They cut production from the first of November and you would expect some lag, and we are seeing activity in the Middle East cooling off somewhat. That’s the simple explanation,” Lars Bastian Ostereng, an analyst at Arctic Securities has told Bloomberg.

Lower freight rates are encouraging some crude to travel longer distances. For instance, Bloomberg has reported that a South Korean refiner bought 2 million barrels of U.S. crude for March arrival. Meanwhile, offers for long-haul U.S. cargoes for delivery to Asia have declined partly due to lower shipping costs.

But things could not be more different in the natural gas arena.

Energy Crisis Sparks Mad Dash For Floating LNG Terminals

Demand for LNG floating storage and regasification units (LNG-FSRUs) has increased sharply this year, with Europe facing an energy supply squeeze as Russia has progressively cut pipeline gas flows.

Demand for LNG imports has intensified after the ruptures on the key Nord Stream pipeline system quashed any prospect of Russia turning its gas taps back on. This has forced dozens of countries in Europe to turn to FSRUs or floating LNG terminals, which are essentially mobile terminals that unload the super-chilled fuel and pipe it into onshore networks.

Currently, there are 48 FSRUs in operation globally, with Rystad Energy revealing that all but six of them are locked into term charters.

According to energy think-tank Ember, the EU has lined up plans for as many as 19 new FSRU projects at an estimated cost of €9.5bn.

The biggest beneficiaries are Korean shipbuilding, for whom FSRUs are a major revenue-generator. Korea is the definitive world leader in this field. According to local media, Korean shipbuilders managed to book 46% more orders so far, YoY. And the government’s goal is for the country to grab 75% of the market share by 2030.

The setup couldn’t be better. With the supply of these vessels so tight, the cost of charters into Germany has doubled year-on-year to $200,000 a day.

“Last year there was a surplus of FSRUs and this year there is a deficit. Up until now there have been sufficient vessels in the market, but as most have now been taken, it’s becoming more challenging,” Per Christian Fett, the global head of LNG at shipbrokers Fearnley LNG in Oslo, has told Bloomberg.

Texas-based Excelerate Energy Inc. is sending three FSRUs to Europe with combined throughput capacity to import 15 billion cubic meters of gas, or about 10% of the pipeline and LNG imports from Russia in 2021. Demand for the terminals in Europe is so strong that it could make it less affordable for emerging nations to use FSRUs for their own needs.

“The risk is real that underutilized facilities in other regions of the world could be relocated to Europe, existing charter terms permitting,”Kaushal Ramesh, a senior analyst at consultant Rystad Energy, has said.

New Dutch terminal

The Netherlands has taken its first delivery of LNG at a new terminal, boosting Europe’s efforts to wean itself off Russian gas. Previously, the Netherlands could only import LNG through Rotterdam; however, that has changed with the commissioning of two FSRUs, the Golar Igloo and Eemshaven LNG, moored in Eemshaven. The FSRU project was completed in record time Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. With the pair of floating ships now supplying gas to the landlocked Czech Republic and Germany.

“The arrival of the new LNG terminal is an important step not only for the Netherlands, but for the whole of Europe to completely phase out the dependence on energy from Russia as quickly as possible,” Rob Jetten, Dutch minister for climate and energy, has declared. FRSUs offer the quickest and most efficient way for Europe to end its reliance on the pipelines that bring in large quantities of natural gas from Russia.

Europe has been working hard to wean itself off Russian energy commodities ever since the latter invaded Ukraine. The European Union has banned Russian coal and plans to block most Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 in a bid to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue to wage its war in Ukraine.

But ditching Russian gas is proving to be more onerous than Europe would have hoped for. Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas–the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war–are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the bloc’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas jumped by 41% Y/Y in the year through August.

“Russian LNG has been the dark horse of the sanctions regime,” Maria Shagina, research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, has told WSJ. Importers of Russian LNG to Europe have argued that the shipments are not covered by current EU sanctions and that buying LNG from Russia and other suppliers has helped keep European energy prices in check.

Source: WSJ

LNG Deluge

Maybe Europe’s LNG imports from Russia can be justified on a purely economic basis.

Natural gas prices in Europe have plunged over the past few weeks with CNBC reporting that a “Wave of LNG tankers is overwhelming Europe in an energy crisis and hitting natural gas prices.” According to MarineTraffic via CNBC, 60 LNG tankers, or ~10% of the LNG vessels in the world, are currently sailing or anchored around Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Iberian Peninsula.

It’s a fair bet that a good chunk of those vessels originated from the United States.

Europe’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed as the EU tries to lower its reliance on Russian natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine. Europe has displaced Asia as the top destination for the U.S. LNG, and now receives 65% of total exports. The EU has pledged to reduce its consumption of Russian natural gas by nearly two-thirds before the year’s end while Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have vowed to eliminate Russian gas imports outright. Unlike pipeline gas, supercooled LNG is much more flexible and can be shipped from far-flung regions, including the U.S. and Qatar.

Europe is not alone here. Shipping data has revealed that China has imported nearly 30% more gas from Russia so far this year, typically at a steep discount.

Thankfully, there’s a clear upside to imports of Russian LNG to Europe: the continent has managed to fill its gas stores well ahead of schedule, with Reuter’s gas meter revealing that 90% of the EU gas storage is currently filled.

END

The Black Market For Oil Is Booming

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Sanctions on key oil exporters have given rise to a lucrative black market for crude.
The EU embargo on Russian crude oil imports and the price cap on Russian crude are set to further increase illicit shipments of oil.
Russia is already thought to be amassing a “dark fleet” of tankers to ship its oil outside the price cap regime.

The sanctions on the oil exports of Venezuela and Iran, and now Russia, have given rise to a lucrative under-the-radar oil trade in which less scrupulous vessel owners, shipping firms, and traders continue to sell sanctioned oil to those willing to take the risk to buy it.

The EU embargo on Russian crude oil imports and the price cap on Russian crude – in force since December 5 – are set to further increase illicit shipments of oil to countries outside the EU and the G7 that haven’t joined the so-called Price Cap Coalition.

Russia is already thought to be amassing a “dark fleet” of tankers to ship its oil outside the price cap regime and it has the playbooks of Iran and Venezuela to take a leaf out of and continue exporting large volumes of its crude and products. Russia could be using tried-and-tested tactics of labeling the oil as sourced from elsewhere, turning off tanker transponders, and even falsifying the positions of tankers via the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data to hide activity taking place hundreds of miles away from the false positioning data.

By using various spoofing tactics, producers and sellers of sanctioned oil still get to place their products with buyers who are happy to get heavily discounted crude.

But not all buyers, especially those in jurisdictions with strict controls and checks such as the U.S., are tempted to discard concerns and red flags about a cargo’s origin. Other buyers, especially independent Chinese refiners, are unfazed as their priority is to buy low-priced crude and make good profits refining it. China, the world’s top oil importer, continues to buy Iranian and Venezuelan crude, often masked as crude from Malaysia or Oman, various analysis and investigative reports have found over the past few years.

Outside China, buyers are wary of coming under sanctions and generally look to avoid mysterious crudes of suspicious origin.

One such recent case was an offer to buyers in the Houston area, the heart of the U.S. Gulf Coast refining industry. Trader Jonathan Plemel of Sidewalks Holdings has recently offered heavy crude documented as coming from Mexico, which, however, was being offered at the massive discount of $30 per barrel to the U.S. benchmark. Potential buyers passed on the offer because, as cheap and alluring as it looked like, they were concerned about the origin, doubting it was really from Mexico, Bloomberg reported this week, citing Plemel and other traders in the Houston area who have been approached with similarly attractive offers in the past year.

Plemel told Bloomberg he couldn’t be certain of the origin of the crude and couldn’t answer many questions from prospective buyers

“Could the oil potentially be from abandoned wells in Mexico? From Venezuela? I honestly can’t say.”

Venezuela is using false documents and tankers linked to Iran and known for carrying sanctioned Iranian crude in the past, a recent investigation by Reuters showed. Venezuela is selling oil to Chinese refiners, passing it off as Malaysian crude in documents, the investigation showed.

Malaysian waters are also notorious for ship-to-ship transfers and mixing of crude to hide the true origin of Iranian and Venezuelan oil. This year, Chinese customs data have at times shown so many imports from Malaysia that analysts and observers believe that China continues to import sanctioned oil passed off as coming from Oman or Malaysia.

Last month, China’s independent refiners imported record volumes of Iranian crude passed off as coming from Malaysia, Oman, or elsewhere, according to Vortexa tanker tracking data cited by Reuters.

Russia will also increasingly resort to sanction-evading practices such as masking its crude or deceiving positioning data, analysts say. Russia has already amassed a “shadow fleet” of tankers to ship its crude outside the price cap, and is copying some of the techniques used by Iran and Venezuela, which are on the list of Moscow’s “friendly” countries.

Tankers carrying Venezuelan crude have been found to falsify their positions over the past year, and this summer, a Russia-flagged tanker in the Mediterranean was caught falsifying its AIS, research by Global Fishing Watch and SkyTruth showed this week.

The investigation into the movements of the Russian tanker Kapitan Schemilkin showed that the vessel altered its signal to show – falsely – that it was circling offshore Greece, while in reality, the ship traveled to locations near Malta and Cyprus.

“It would prove to be the first detection ever of a Russian-flagged tanker broadcasting false coordinates—and it may be the first of many,” SkyTruth said.

END

Robert H:

Does Europe really have availed gas as claimed ??

There are plenty of peer-reviewed industry papers and articles published in specialized international oil & gas journals regarding theoretical “huge volumes” of supposed European nat-gas “reserves”. Supposedly, such reserves would “solve” the absolutely unnecessary self-inflicted European nat-gas crisis. Furthermore, there are lots of back-of-the-envelope ´calculations´ plus added blah blah blah with the very same prognosis in mind. I leave to you to read them if so inclined.

Obviously, it´s very hard to know exactly what type and practical-use nat-gas “storage” capabilities different European countries have available today. Likely such nat-gas European storage facilities are heterogenous and also varying from country to country.

Recall what you may have learned in high-school physics as this still does matter today looking at this.Accordingly, many or most above-ground atmospheric pressure nat-gas reserve tanks or highly pressurized subsurface caverns by themselves will not work as expected unless a backflow – even at very low flow rates and inflow pressures — is constantly maintained from the Russian pipeline source… thus pushing the stored nat-gas out. Otherwise, in the event that the Russian pipeline remain completely shut-off, Newtonian physics would not allow, for example, to suction nat-gas out of its current storage as a vacuum would be drawn making outflow impossible.

Has anyone thought this through? Think about this, without a proper safe mechanism to push the gas in storage out, it is worthless. Please ask if there is such a mechanism? Because if not Europe is in for a frosty winter of no heat and no power from gas. Perhaps I am am wrong but not a single political type has described how this reality will be dealt with.

I will wager politicians do not know. And if they do they are conning the public. It really is the same approach the Russians seem to be taking knowing that time works for them. And the reason we read of closures may well be that there simply is a limited amount if any gas to share. And you can be sure there will be zero unity to share pain amongst those nations who have it figured out vs those who have not.

And whatever plans that may exist to profit from the upcoming crisis one wonders if they thought it through?

8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: DOWN .0002 AT 1.0539

USA/ YEN 137.38 DOWN 0.140/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.2297 UP 0.0028

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.72 PTS OR 0.09%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.57 POINTS OR 0.68%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.25% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 132.57 PTS OR 0.68%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.72 PTS OR 0.09%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.25%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 112.52 OR 0.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1787.80

silver:$23.40

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 104.50 DOWN .21 POINTS from MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.83% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% UP 0 AND 0 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.79 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.920% UP 0 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0628 UP .0087 or 87 basis points//

USA/Japan: 135.18 DOWN 2.333 OR YEN UP 233 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2367 UP .0099 OR 99 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0088 OR 88 BASIS pts to 1.3545

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP) AT 6.9448

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9654

TURKISH LIRA: 18.65 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.490% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.508 DOWN 7 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.55 DOWN 1.21 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 56.72 PTS OR 0.76%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 191,76 POINTS OR 1.34%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 94.43 PTS OR 1.42%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 68.80 OR 0.83%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 333.26 PTS OR 1.37%

WTI Oil price 75.86 12: EST

Brent Oil: 80.96 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 62,85/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 5/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.920

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.3205 UP 9 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0627 UP .0086 OR 86 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2360 UP .0092 or 92 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.329% UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.63 DOWN 1.867/YEN UP 187 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3560 DOWN 0.0071 (CDN dollar, UP 71 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 75.44

Brent OIL: 80.60

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS pts to 3.514%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 3.545%

USA dollar index:103.64 DOWN 1.12 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.64

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 62.85 UP 0 AND 5

/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 103.60 PTS OR 0.30%

NASDAQ 100 UP 127.77 PTS OR 1.09%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.65 DOWN 2.35 PTS (9.40)%

GLD: $168.51 UP 2.83 OR 1.71%

SLV/ $21.83 UP $0370 OR 1.72%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Soft CPI Sparks Chaos Ahead Of FOMC: Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid; Stocks Skid

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Well that was a day… and we have tomorrow’s FOMC fun and games to look forward to still.

Softer than expected CPI (bear in mind that Core CPI was only 0.1ppt below expectations) sparked total chaos in markets with rate-trajectory expectations immediately jerking dovishly…

Source: Bloomberg

This did not affect the market’s view of tomorrow’s FOMC decision (50bps hike) but did dovishly shift expectations for Feb and March…

Source: Bloomberg

And that sent stocks, bonds, bitcoin, and bullion higher (and the dollar lower). But, as the day wore on, stocks gave their gains back (while the rest of the asset classes did not…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, The Dow lagged, Nasdaq outperformed (up over 4.5% at its highs right after CPI), but most of those gains were given back by the close. By any normal standards a 1% gain in Nasdaq is decent but given the intraday swings it feels like a disappointment and now leaves it all up to Powell to decide whether traders have been naughty or nice…

On a side note, a number of traders noticed that S&P futures started to accelerate rather notably ahead of the actual CPI print, surging 40pts in the last few seconds before the soft data hit…

US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely-watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released.

President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves.

“I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”

“People may be reading a little bit too much into this, into some of the minor market movements,” she added.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said it’s unaware of any early release of its data.

It wasn’t just stocks that broke early…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOlsibGlua3RyLmVlIiwidHIuZWUiLCJ0ZXJyYS5jb20uYnIiLCJ3d3cubGlua3RyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRlcnJhLmNvbS5iciJdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdGltZWxpbmVfMTIwMzQiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHJlYXRtZW50IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9lZGl0X2JhY2tlbmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3JlZnNyY19zZXNzaW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zaG93X2J1c2luZXNzX3ZlcmlmaWVkX2JhZGdlIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19jaGluX3BpbGxzXzE0NzQxIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6ImNvbG9yX2ljb25zIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2hvd19ibHVlX3ZlcmlmaWVkX2JhZGdlIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9lZGl0X2Zyb250ZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1602668165292498944&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fsoft-cpi-sparks-chaos-ahead-fomc-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid-stocks-skid&sessionId=5a8d450b4bc6495f7f79e6f45373736b5f79c979&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=a3525f077c700%3A1667415560940&width=550px

The S&P 500 gapped open above the 200DMA, then drifted back below it to end the day…

The S&P 500 also briefly broke out above 2022’s downtrend line, but couldn’t hold it…

Energy stocks outperformed on the day, Consumer stocks were the biggest loser (20th month of real wage losses?) along with Utes (odd given rates tumbled). Tech stocks were the best performer at 10amET but gave most of it back…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA continued to clubbed like a baby seal (again). The stock is now trading at 29 times projected earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While that’s still well above the S&P 500 Index’s 17 times forecast earnings, it’s the lowest since the company went public in 2010. The company’s market value fell below $500 billion for the first time since November 2020 Tuesday.

Source: Bloomberg

…and while liberal Twitter gloated at Elon Musk losing his #1 spot as the richest man in the world… we note he is still (only) worth $181 billion.

VIX’s fall today confirmed a ‘death cross’ but we do note that the last two ‘death crosses’ were almost immediately followed by a significant surge in VIX…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were instantly bid on the CPI print and only drifted back a little. The short-end outperformed dramatically with 2Y -15bps,

Source: Bloomberg

An ugly 30Y auction spoiled the party a bit, reversing earlier gains…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dived to post-Payrolls lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged up to one-month-highs near $18,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil continued its rebound with WTI back above $76…

Gold extended its gains, back above $1830 to its highest since early August…

Finally, will Powell spoil the party?

Source: Bloomberg

Of course it’s different this time.

EARLY MORNING TRADING//CPI

Headline CPI Cools More Than Expected But Real Wages Continued To Tumble

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 08:38 AM

The first of this week’s big event risks has arrived and while the world and his pet rabbit is focused on the number’s potential for ‘dovishness’, bear in mind that expectations are for a 0.3% MoM rise and 7.3% YoY rise (which while ‘slowing’ remains extremely high by any standards).

The banks’s CPI forecasts were all in sync:

7.2% – Barclays
7.2% – Credit Suisse
7.2% – Goldman Sachs
7.2% – Bloomberg Econ
7.2% – Citigroup
7.2% – Morgan Stanley
7.2% – Wells Fargo
7.3% – HSBC
7.3% – JP Morgan Chase
7.3% – UBS
7.3% – Bank of America
7.4% – SocGen

The headline CPI printed cooler than expected, rising just 0.1% MoM, with the YoY rise falling to +7.1% – lowest since Dec 2021

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest MoM drop (-0.63ppt) in the YOY print since 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI was expected to rise 0.3% MoM also (+6.1% YoY), and like the headline it was cooler than expected at +0.2% MoM and +6.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, energy costs and used cars were the biggest drivers of the cooling…

Source: Bloomberg

Given the rollover in M2, we suspect inflation will continue sliding…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that last month’s (11/10/22) YoY headline CPI print came in soft @ 7.7% (vs 7.8% expected and 8.2% prior), and with traders short into the event, the S&P exploded +554bps (sharpest rally since April of 2020).

Additionally, the S&P’s realized volatility into today’s CPI print is the highest since 2009…

Options are implying a 2.3% move (one way or the other) in the S&P 500 today. And in terms of S&P’s reaction function to this headline CPI YoY print, this was the framework Goldman is using…

>7.7% S&P loses 3+%
7.4 – 7.7% S&P loses 1-2%
7 – 7.3% S&P gains 2-3%
<7% S&P gains 3+%

So brace for

Finally, we note that real wages for Americans fell for the 20th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

But hey, gas prices are down since the June peak… and ‘strong as hell’ economy, right?

end

Surveying The Market Chaos After The Soft CPI Print…

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 08:51 AM

Well that escalated quickly…

A cooler than expected CPI unleashed hell in markets prompting a massive drop in Fed rate trajectory expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 50bps hike tomorrow are basically unchanged but the market’s repricing the February odds dramatically with 50bps tumbling to just 32% now (from near 60%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks exploded higher with Nasdaq leading the charge, up over 4%…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Treasury yields plunged to last week’s low yields (back to September)…

The 2Y Yield puked to its lowest since Oct…

The dollar dumped…

Bitcoin soared back up towards $18,000 (one month highs)…

Gold spiked back above $1800, trading at its highest since June…

Will Powell unwind all this ‘easing’ of financial conditions tomorrow?

EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING

The Dow Has Given Up All Its CPI-Spike Gains…

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 10:46 AM

US equity markets have been fading from just before the US equity open and The Dow has now erased all of the post-CPI spike gains…

For now, the dollar, bonds, gold, and crypto have seen no such reversal of their moves.

ii) USA DATA

More signs that the economy is in trouble

(zerohedge)

RIP Marcus? Goldman Sachs Stops Originating Unsecured Consumer Loans

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 11:35 AM

In 2018, we explained how Goldman Sachs had switched from betting against Subprime (Residential Mortgage Backed Securities and their various synthetic and “squared” derivatives) to betting with Subprime (hoping to profit off America’s sub-660 FICO population by lending to it).

Goldman’s credit card business, anchored by the Apple Card since 2019, had arguably been the company’s biggest success yet in terms of gaining retail lending scale, but as we detailed in September 2022, rising losses threaten to mar that picture.

After the COVID money-drop and various moratoria on payments/bankruptcies/delinquencies, the fecal matter appears to be starting to strike the rotating object as JPMorgan note pointed out in September out that while competitors like Bank of America enjoy repayment rates at or near record levels, Goldman’s loss rate on credit card loans hit 2.93% in the second quarter.

That’s the worst among big U.S. card issuers and “well above subprime lenders,” according to JPM analyst Vivek Juneja.

Even more notably, Goldman’s losses are also higher than that of Capital One, the largest subprime player among big banks, which had a 2.26% charge-off rate.

“If there’s one thing Goldman is supposed to be good at, its risk management,” said Jason Mikula, a former Goldman employee who now consults for the industry.

“So how do they have charge-off rates comparable to a subprime portfolio?”

None of that should come as a surprise though since, as the FT reported in 2018 citing analysts, Goldman has been targeting riskier borrowers, supplying about one-fifth of its loans to people with credit scores below 660 on the commonly used FICO scale; there is a familiar name for this group of borrowers: “subprime.”

And, as of today, it now looks as though a broke U.S. consumer has one less option to “kick the can down the road” a little further when it comes to taking on unsecured debt to fund their post-Covid-stimulus lifestyle and combat inflation.

That’s because in a move that looks to us to be a major canary in the unsecured lending coal mine, Goldman Sachs reportedly “plans to stop originating unsecured consumer loans”, according to a source familiar with the bank.

The move marks a noticeable pivot from the bank’s previous plans of trying to get closer to retail banking, which they were doing through their Marcus offering, which provided services like personal loans and high yield savings, similar to combining the features of lenders like Sofi and Upstart with the savings products from companies like Capital One.

But that experiment looks to be on its last legs. Goldman hasn’t officially commented on the report yet but the bank has been in the midst of cost cutting measures for several months. Goldman was one of the first banks to announce layoffs this season.

It was also reported that Marcus was halting its aggressive hiring plans during the middle of the summer. At the time, executives were “concerned that too much money is being spent on Marcus”, according to Insider.

And now at a tough time for the American consumer, it’s likely going to lead a charge of lending risk aversion that will see other banks follow suit.

The timing couldn’t be worse. Recall, just last week, we noted that the latest Consumer Credit report by the Fed showed consumer credit rose $27.1 billion in October, above last month’s $25.8 billion.

And while non-revolving credit (student and car loans) rose by a relatively pedestrian $17BN (down from $17.9BN last month, if above the 12 month average of $16.3BN).

… it was revolving, or credit card, debt which once again surprise to the upside, rising by $10.1 billion, up sharply from $7.9 billion last month, if somewhat below the post-June average where double digit monthly increases have been the norm.

Looking at the composition of non-revolving credit, Q3 saw a surge in both student and auto loans, the former rising by $23.9BN in Q3 – the most since Q1 2021 – while the latter soared by $30.9BN (which however was just below last quarter’s $34.6 billion surge).

As we wrote just days ago…”the state of the US consumer is dire and getting worse, and as shown in the next chart, credit card debt hits a record high just as the personal savings rate hit a 17 year low. The catastrophic implications for the US economy is clear.”

Prior to those figures being published, in late November we also wrote about debt being the fuel to keep the economic charade going for this long, despite spiking interest rates. “Part of it is psychological, but another part of it is that the consumer isn’t yet tapped out. But it’s coming,” contributor Quoth the Raven wrote. “Once savings are depleted, the next thing households do is turn to debt. And debt levels are raging higher right now.”

In the late November piece, we noted that the next expectation would be for delinquencies to rise. We’re guessing this is the trend Goldman is trying to get out in front of.

“Delinquencies are definitely on their way. When those occur, spending will slow even more and the ripple effects will further penetrate through to equity markets. It may take several more months to become evident, as all of these data points operate with somewhat of a lag,” we wrote in late November.

“[Our] guess is that the stock market shows the signs well before it turns up in New York Fed data. By the time we see it in the above chart, it’ll likely be too late for markets.”

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.

The good news here is the repeal of the vaccine mandate

(Lord/EpochTimes)

What’s Inside The House-Passed Military Spending Bill

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The House of Representatives just passed the mammoth $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), an annual must-pass bill setting out defense spending levels.

See what’s inside, and what was left out, below.

Military Vaccine Mandate Repealed

In a major win for Republicans and critics of President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 policies, this year’s iteration of the NDAA will include a repeal of a vaccine mandate for military service members.

Biden announced in August 2021 that all federal employees, including military service members, would be required to take the COVID-19 vaccine or lose their job, despite a dearth of long-term testing on the vaccine.

Republicans were opposed to the mandate from the beginning, calling it a violation of the personal liberty of citizens to make their own health decisions.

Initially, service members who refused the vaccine were liable to face consequences up to and including court martial and dishonorable discharge. A dishonorable discharge, roughly the military equivalent of a felony conviction, can severely impact a service member’s life, as many employers will not even consider hiring someone with a less-than-honorable military discharge.

Last year, the Senate passed a draft of the NDAA barring the Department of Defense (DOD) from dishonorably discharging service members solely for refusal to take the vaccine.

However, the mandate remained in effect. Even after Biden boldly declared that “the pandemic is over,” the Pentagon refused to budge on its vaccine requirements.

But in the past several weeks, efforts to repeal the mandate once and for all ramped up among Republicans.

After rumors began circulating that the NDAA would undo the mandate, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)—the frontrunner in the race for the speakership of the 118th Congress—vowed during an appearance on Fox Business Network’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that his caucus would not pass the bill unless it ended the vaccine mandate.

“We will secure lifting that vaccine mandate on our military because what we’re finding is, they’re kicking out men and women that have been serving,” McCarthy said. “That’s the first victory of having a Republican majority, and we’d like to have more of those victories, and we should start moving those now.”

Democrats yielded on the issue, giving Republicans a major policy win.

The passage of the bill through the lower chamber came just days after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed his desire to continue imposing the mandate.

“We lost a million people to this virus,” Austin told reporters, although studies and data have shown the vast majority of people who died from COVID-19 were elderly or have compromised immune systems. “A million people died in the United States of America. We lost hundreds in DOD. So this mandate has kept people healthy.”

Following the addition of the amendment ending the mandate, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), one of the most vocal critics of Biden’s diktat, applauded the outcome.

“This is a big day for our men and women in the military,” Paul said in a tweet. “We won, and the NDAA will be amended to respect medical autonomy and religious freedom.”

“These young men and women are willing to put their lives on the line, and now we’ve come forward to say they deserve to be treated with respect,” Paul said in a press conference.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), another key proponent of the amendment, also applauded the bill as “a huge victory for our troops.”

No Reinstatement of Troops

Though the bill will undo Biden’s mandate, hopes that the bill would reinstate those who were kicked out of the military for refusal to take the vaccine did not come to fruition.

According to Defense Department data, 3,717 Marines, 1,816 soldiers, and 2,064 sailors have been discharged for refusing to get vaccinated against COVID-19, although a small portion has been allowed to remain in service owing to religious or medical waivers.

As of Dec. 1, over 11,500 members of the Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve have declined to get vaccinated against COVID-19, Axios reported, while 97 percent of the Army’s active personnel received the shot.

In an exclusive interview with The Epoch Times, Air Force Lt. Col Adam Conrad, who asked that his name be changed to protect him from retaliation by the DOD, said that he had “never seen morale so low” as it got after the imposition of the mandate.

Various military bodies have been struggling to meet their recruitment goals in part over the vaccine mandate, with the U.S. Army reaching just 75 percent of its recruitment goal of 60,000 for this year, accord ing to Army Secretary Christine Wormuth.

Still, the NDAA will not reinstate those troops who were removed due to their opposition to taking the experimental vaccine.

In a statement after the passage of the bill, McCarthy applauded the end of the mandate and suggested that Republicans will continue to work to reinstate discharged service members when they take control of the lower chamber in January.

“The end of President Biden’s military COVID vaccine mandate is a victory for our military and for common sense,” McCarthy said. “Last week, I told the president directly: it’s time to end the COVID vaccine mandate and rehire our service members.”

“While I applaud the end of this onerous mandate—the Biden administration must go further. Unfortunately, the mandate has already had negative consequences for our military,” McCarthy said, citing the difficulties that the military has faced in recruiting.

“These heroes deserve justice now that the mandate is no more,” he continued. “The Biden administration must correct service records and not stand in the way of re-enlisting any service member discharged simply for not taking the COVID vaccine.

“Make no mistake: this is a win for our military. But in 28 days the real work begins—the new House Republican majority will work to finally hold the Biden administration accountable and assist the men and women in uniform who were unfairly targeted by this Administration.”

This may be a difficult promise to keep, however, as Democrats retain the upper chamber and will have substantial leverage over the House GOP majority.

Another Million-Dollar Dole to Ukraine

The bill will also grant another $800 million of taxpayer funds to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative as part of the U.S. effort to help Ukraine defend itself against an ongoing Russian invasion.

The United States has already sent around $68 billion in humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine in three major packages.

The first aid package, passed as part of the $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill for fiscal year (FY) 2022, sent Ukraine $13.6 billion. In May, Congress passed another standalone bill granting Ukraine $40 billion. Again in September, an additional $13.7 billion was sent to Ukraine.

Though the appropriation is smaller than past handouts, Americans are in the dark as to how exactly Ukraine is using the aid.

Alarmingly, reports indicate that weapons purchased with taxpayer funds have wound up as far afield as Nigeria, falling into the hands of terror groups.

President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria said during a summit of African leaders that “the raging war in Ukraine serve[s] as major sources of weapons and fighters that bolster the ranks of the terrorists in Lake Chad Region.”

He added, “A substantial proportion of the arms and ammunitions procured to execute the war in Libya, continues to find its way to the Lake Chad Region and other parts of the Sahel. Weapons being used for the war in Ukraine and Russia are equally beginning to filter to the region.”

Because of this, calls have escalated among Republicans for Ukraine’s use of taxpayer funds to be audited.

During a Dec. 9 hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, a measure proposed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to audit the Eastern European nation was defeated by Democrats.

“The American people deserve full transparency and oversight of where their hard earned tax dollars have gone and that’s why we should audit Ukraine,” Greene said in a Twitter post after the vote.

“An audit isn’t pro or against Ukraine, it’s just the right thing to do.”

The $800 million figure is far short of the $37.7 billion in additional aid for Ukraine requested by the White House at the end of November.

Silence on Pentagon Abortion Policy

The bill does not address a policy recently announced by Defense Secretary Austin that would see taxpayer dollars used to fund travel costs for women in the military to get abortions.

The policy came in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in which the court overturned Roe v. Wade. As a result of this decision, the right to regulate abortions has been returned to state legislatures for the first time in nearly 50 years.

Austin argued that because military servicemembers often have to travel for work, they should not be restricted from getting an abortion if they are stationed in a state with more restrictive abortion laws.

“Our Service members and their families are often required to travel or move to meet our staffing, operational, and training requirements. Such moves should not limit their access to reproductive health care,” Austin wrote in an October memo.

He contended that the “practical effects of recent changes” would harm military readiness.

“In my judgment, such effects qualify as unusual, extraordinary, hardship, or emergency circumstances for Service members and their dependents and will interfere with our ability to recruit, retain, and maintain the readiness of a highly qualified force,” he wrote.

Republicans were quick to blast the decision.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) called it “outrageous,” and demanded that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) allow a vote on an amendment to prohibit it.

While the text of the bill does not actively give the green light to this policy, it also does not contain language prohibiting it.

The Pentagon is given a great deal of latitude on how it uses the funding granted by each year’s iteration of the NDAA. While large chunks of it are appropriated for specific purposes, a large proportion of these taxpayer dollars are left to the discretion of the Pentagon to spend as they will.

This means that, if the bill passes with no prohibition of the policy, taxpayers will find themselves indirectly footing the bill for abortions in contravention of an existing law known as the Hyde amendment, which restricts the use of federal funds for abortions.

Klobuchar Media Bill Fails

An effort by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) to attach a controversial bill rider to the package was rejected.

SEC Chairman Gensler Scrubbed Evidence Of Clinton, Soros And Pelosi Meetings: FOIA Lawsuit

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Sunlight is the best disinfectant – unless you’re Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler – who scrubbed evidence of a meeting with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from his calendar, along with key details of a meeting with Billionaire leftist-operative George Soros.

He also concealed September 21 meetings with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and former Bill Clinton White House official-turned-DC consultant, Minyon Moore.

Gensler, a former Goldman Sachs executive, Obama administration official, Clinton’s 2016 campaign CFO, and FTX associate, essentially had two calendars. His public calendar showed that on Aug. 7, 2021, he only had a staff meeting, while his private calendar lists a meeting with Hillary Clinton, Fox News reports.

Thirteen days later on Aug. 20, 2021, Gensler’s public calendar does list a meeting with Soros, but the agenda was hidden. His private calendar reveals that the meeting was held to discuss an upcoming WSJ op-ed Soros was planning to write in which he slammed BlackRock for launching investment products for Chinese customers, while also applauding the company’s ESG policies.

Gensler’s private calendar revealing the discrepancies was obtained by the watchdog group Energy Policy Advocates and shared with Fox News Digital. The group was only able to obtain the internal records after filing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the SEC.

In recent days, around the time Fox News Digital contacted the SEC, the agency updated Gensler’s public calendar to include his meeting with Clinton in August 2021. As recently as Wednesday the public calendar didn’t include the meeting, and archived copies of the webpage from April also list just a meeting with staff. -Fox News

When contacted for comment, the SEC initially lied – saying that the Clinton meeting was visible on Gensler’s public calendar. When confronted with screenshots to the contrary, the spokesperson said that the agency updates calendars “from time to time” when inaccuracies are discovered (by watchdog groups?).

Gensler also concealed several September 2021 meetings with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Minyon Moore – both of which have been now updated on Gensler’s public calendar.

“That even George Soros is calling out progressive darling BlackRock for craven blundering is striking — even if it did carry the requisite, tribal praise for BlackRock’s truly damaging ‘ESG’ (environmental, social and governance) campaigning to impose their shared ‘climate’ agenda on the U.S., an agenda also much to China’s delight,” said Chris Horner, a lawyer representing Energy Policy Advocates. “That it appears Soros received counsel from Gary Gensler on the mega-donor’s call for more SEC powers as a result is truly astonishing.”

“This gives further credence to the widespread concern that Gensler is deeply politicizing a supposedly independent commission,” he continued. “He may have been Hillary Clinton’s ‘Progressive Beacon’ not long ago, but Gary Gensler is now the SEC chairman, and his calendar indicates he knew the purpose of the meeting. It seems important to know whose idea this was, why, what was said arranging it and through what channel.”

According to the SEC spokesperson, Gensler has never asked anyone to ‘draft or submit’ an op-ed, but declined to comment on the meeting with Soros.

Gensler has faced heavy criticism from business groups and Republican lawmakers for pushing progressive policies, including a climate disclosure rule that would require publicly traded companies to share carbon emissions data and other climate information.

Reps. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., and Andy Barr, R-Ky., two top GOP members on the House Financial Services Committee, introduced legislation this month that would limit the SEC’s ability to require such climate disclosures. -Fox News

“That this and Gensler’s consultation with Hillary were scrubbed from the public version of his calendar is frankly the least surprising aspect of this,” Horner continued. “The SEC first told Energy Policy Advocates that the publicly posted calendars were all they would get.”

“Energy Policy Advocates challenged that, pointing out that these sanitized versions, typically posted months after the fact, were certainly not produced from memory and the group wanted the originals. Here you see the reason for the scrubbing these internal versions receive.“

end

The Twitter files

(Sundance/ConservativeTreehouse.com)

‘Just A Few Rogue Actors’ Behind Banning Of Trump From Twitter; Nothing To See Here…

MONDAY, DEC 12, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Sundance via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

The fifth installment of the Twitter Files release drops today courtesy of Ms. Bari Weiss [READ HERE]. The focus of Ms Weiss was on the decision to ban President Donald Trump from the platform, and her outline walks through the events leading up to the decision to remove him.

After a review of internal discussions, slacks and conversations within the social media platform, ultimately the officers within the company decided to protect their view of democracy by removing their biggest ideological opponent.

The Twitter executives justified their actions by echo-chambering a belief that President Trump was tweeting “coded messages,” the secret transmission of thoughts that can only be received by those wearing red hats, tuned to a specific psychological frequency. As Weiss notes: “Less than 90 minutes after Twitter employees had determined that Trump’s tweets were not in violation of Twitter policy, Vijaya Gadde—Twitter’s Head of Legal, Policy, and Trust—asked whether it could, in fact, be “coded incitement to further violence.”

President Trump tweeted the term “American Patriots,” which would be viewed by the Twitter ideologues as something akin to “the leader of a terrorist group responsible for violence/deaths comparable to Christchurch shooter or Hitler and on that basis and on the totality of his Tweets, he should be de-platformed.”

It did not take long for the narrative to embed as the most senior Twitter regulatory officers assembled. “One hour later, Twitter announces Trump’s permanent suspension “due to the risk of further incitement of violence.”

The entirety of Twitter File #5 release surrounds this internal Twitter dynamic, carefully avoiding any discussion or sunlight from outside government actors who may have been in direct contact with the senior Twitter team.

Indeed, the documents chosen to provide evidence of the debate and decision to remove President Trump are transparently devoid of any inbound government contact to the Twitter organization.

Thus, at the end of Ms. Weiss carefully written expose’, she concludes with this:

See, it’s only “a handful of people at a private company“…. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along.

Apparently, DHS, FBI and CISA officials were involved in direct contact with Twitter through their DHS “trusted partnership” portal to get rid of innocuous rebel voices and influence agents like Dan Bongino, Q conspiracy theorists, and various COVID doctors who were providing information against the interests of the government.

However, when it came to removing the most powerful voice of President Donald John Trump, there was nothing but static radio silence from the government side of the DHS portal.

You getting this?

Do you see how this is presented? “A handful of people at a private company,” that’s the story and they are sticking to it. Swear.

Move along folks, move along. Nothing to see here, just move along.

That sound you hear in the background is not Ms. Bari Weiss providing an application of spray paint after careful Bondo application.

Comrades, the social media messaging vehicle known as Twitter is a clean/refreshed information & communication platform as provided by the magnanimity of Mr Elon Musk, unknown financial underwriting notwithstanding.

Brilliant.

Now, let’s talk about President DeSantis…

end

Judge Orders Kari Lake And Katie Hobbs To Appear At Emergency Court Hearing Over Election Lawsuit

TUESDAY, DEC 13, 2022 – 12:36 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A judge overseeing Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s electoral lawsuit ordered Lake, Secretary of State and Arizona Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs, Maricopa County Board of Supervisors officials, and others to appear at a court hearing on Tuesday.

Judge Peter Thompson, in issuing the (pdf) order, wrote that the court has “reviewed” Lake’s “verified statement of election contest” and said the “matter will be set on an accelerated basis.” Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer and Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates were also ordered to attend the hearing, which will start at 2 p.m. ET.

It comes as Lake stated Monday that her lawsuit is, in part, fueled by alleged whistleblower claims who have come forward.

“We’ve had three whistleblowers from Maricopa County reach out and say the system is seriously flawed,” Lake told Just the News on Monday, days after the suit was filed with a Maricopa County court.

“They were throwing out tens of thousands of signatures saying they were scribbles that in no way matched. But somewhere between there, the ballots were being completely tossed out and they got looped back into the system and counted as if they were fine.”

Lake said that about 25,000 “additional ballots and early voting ballots were discovered two days after Election Day,” adding that they “just showed up.” She continued: “It shows the whole system has serious problems.”

“We believe that up to 135,000 ballots were pushed through that should not have been pushed through,” Lake added, without elaborating.

“We’re asking a judge to let us take a look at all of the envelopes and compare signatures, so that we can find out for sure how many bad, fraudulent ballots got through in that way, of basically cheating or breaking the rules.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Maricopa County’s election division about Lake’s claims on Monday.

Reactions

Maricopa County spokesman Fields Moseley told Reuters that the court system is the appropriate venue for campaigns to challenge election results. Moseley stated that Maricopa’s election division “looks forward to sharing facts about the administration of the 2022 General Election and our work to ensure every legal voter had an opportunity to cast their ballot.”

Bill Gates, chair of the Maricopa Board of Supervisors, speaks about voting machine malfunctions at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Elections Center in Phoenix, Ariz., on Nov. 9, 2022. (Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images)

Sophia Solis, a spokesperson for the secretary of state’s office, told The Associated Press that Lake’s lawsuit was being reviewed.

In her lawsuit (pdf) filed Dec. 9, Lake is asking to be declared the winner of the race or for a new vote to be held in Maricopa County, the state’s most populous. Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs, the Democrat secretary of state, last month narrowly defeated Lake in the general election by about 17,000 votes.

Hobbs’ campaign, in a statement issued on Friday, criticized Lake’s lawsuit as a “nuisance” and suggested it would be thrown out.

“Kari Lake needs attention like a fish needs water—and independent experts and local election officials of both parties have made it clear that this was a safe, secure, and fair election,” the statement read.

“Arizonans made their voices heard and elected Katie Hobbs as their governor. No nuisance lawsuit will change that, and we remain laser-focused on getting ready to hit the ground running on Day One of Katie Hobbs’ administration next year.”

Lake stated that long lines and printer issues adversely affected Election Day voters on Nov. 8. Maricopa officials that day confirmed there were printer errors and told voters to place their ballots inside dropboxes, while they later said no voters were disenfranchised.

“Lake received the greatest number of votes and is entitled to be named the winner,” her lawsuit claimed.

“Alternately, the election must be re-done in Maricopa County to eliminate the effects of maladminstration and illegal votes on the vote tallies reported by Maricopa County.”

In November, Lake also filed a public records request to seek additional information about both counted and uncounted ballots that might have been mixed during the election. Following the Nov. 8 midterms, she has also often posted videos of voters who gave accounts of long lines and other alleged election maladministration in Maricopa County.

Other than Lake, Abe Hamadeh—a Republican who is running for attorney general, and Mark Finchem—a Republican running for secretary of state, filed separate lawsuits on Dec. 9. Candidates have five days following certification to contest an election under Arizona state law.

KING REPORT

The King Report December 13, 2022 Issue 6906

Independent View of the News

ESHs (March ‘H’ is the front month) traded negatively during Asian trading. There was a modest rally into the European opening. However, ESZs and stocks retreated when Europe opened at 3 ET. The drop ended at 3:23 ET because traders wanted to be long for the Monday and Expiry Week rallies.

ESHs and stocks rallied sharply until 6:15 ET. They then traded sideways in a modest range until they dropped when the NYSE opened. However, with an estimated $3.7 trillion of December options expiring later this week, traders eagerly bought the early US dip and then drove ESZs higher.

Traders with enormous expiry option positions are NOT passive investors. They will work and scheme to push stuff higher to maximize the value of the expiring options before they die a natural death.

ESHs and stocks jumped higher at 11:00 ET on this:

NY Fed Finds 1-Year Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level Since 2021
Households in November said they expected inflation to be 5.2% over the coming 12 months, down from 5.7% the month before, according to results of the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday. Expected inflation three years and five years ahead also fell…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/ny-fed-says-1-yr-inflation-expectations-drop-to-least-since-2021

@zerohedge: How did Household income growth expectations just hit a record high 4.5% in the NY Fed survey? Simple: it was driven exclusively by respondents with no more than a high school education. You can fool some people that there is no recession… as long as they are in high school.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1602353137876176912

Household wealth dropped by $13.5 trillion from January to September, second-worst destruction on record  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/household-wealth-down-by-13-5-trillion-in-2022-second-worst-destruction-on-record-11670623787

ESHs and stocks hit a peak at 13:01 ET. After a moderate retreat, ESHs and stocks zoomed to new highs on the pre-last hour rally. After a peak near 14:37 ET, ESHs retreated until someone manipulated to a new high two minutes before the NYSE close.

Positive aspects of previous session
Expiry-related equity rally

Negative aspects of previous session
USHs declined 11/32; Fangs were down sharply until the final 2 hours, an anomaly for expiry week

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How accurate is the NY Fed Household Survey for November?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3942.12
Previous session High/Low: 3989.72; 3935.30

U.S. November deficit rises sharply as revenues fall, outlays jump
The November U.S. budget deficit jumped by $57 billion or 30% from a year earlier to $249 billion, a record for the month… Receipts for November fell 10% or $29 billion from a year earlier to $252 billion, while outlays rose 6% or $28 billion to $501 billion, also a November record…  http://reut.rs/3BwnF3M

Sam Bankman-Fried to skip testifying in person before Congress because he’s ‘quite overbooked’ https://trib.al/KTrIg4s

Sam Bankman-Fried is ARRESTED in the Bahamas after American prosecutors filed criminal charges against FTX founder  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11531043/Sam-Bankman-Fried-ARRESTED-Bahamas.html

@elonmusk: The woke mind virus is either defeated or nothing else matters
@Lukewearechange: Replying to @elonmusk: We are either in a mass awakening event or total collapse of society  @elonmusk Replying to @Lukewearechange Exactly

Biden official hid info about meetings with George Soros, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi from public
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler scrubbed mention of a meeting with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and key details of a meeting with billionaire Democratic donor George Soros from the public version of his calendar…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-official-hid-info-meetings-george-soros-hillary-clinton-nancy-pelosi-public

Today – Despite the robust equity rally on Monday, SPY December options volume was tepid. The SPY Dec 400 call, which is the key call strike price, had volume of less than 20k when the final hour arrived. Either the mammoths are comfortably very long, or they weren’t ready on Monday to get more long. Perhaps they want to see the hole cards, the FOMC Communiqué and Powell Presser, on Wednesday.

The SPY Dec 400 call had the largest call volume: 29,697; the SPY 395 put had the largest put volume: 31,855. SPY closed at 398.95; the high was 398.95.

ESHs are -2.25 and USHs are +4/32 at 20:05 ET.

Expected econ data: Nov CPI 0.3% m/m & 7.3% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 6.1% y/y; 2-day FOMC Meeting begins

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3840; 100-day MA: 3930; 150-day MA: 3927; 200-day MA: 4037
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,194; 100-day MA: 32,091; 150-day MA: 31,925; 200-day MA: 32,459

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4529.70 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 3922.22 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3932.95 triggers a sell signal

@bariweiss: THREAD: THE TWITTER FILES PART FIVE.
THE REMOVAL OF TRUMP FROM TWITTER.
9. After January 6, Twitter employees organized to demand their employer ban Trump. “There is a lot of employee advocacy happening,” said one Twitter employee… 10. “We have to do the right thing and ban this account,” said one staffer. It’s “pretty obvious he’s going to try to thread the needle of incitement without violating the rules,” said another… 11. In the early afternoon of January 8, The Washington Post published an open letter signed by over 300 Twitter employees to CEO Jack Dorsey demanding Trump’s ban. “We must examine Twitter’s complicity in what President-Elect Biden has rightly termed insurrection.” 12. But the Twitter staff assigned to evaluate tweets quickly concluded that Trump had *not* violated Twitter’s policies. “I think we’d have a hard time saying this is incitement,” wrote one staffer. 13. “It’s pretty clear he’s saying the ‘American Patriots’ are the ones who voted for him and not the terrorists (we can call them that, right?) from Wednesday.” 14. Another staffer agreed: “Don’t see the incitement angle here.”…
    19. To understand Twitter’s decision to ban Trump, we must consider how Twitter deals with other heads of state and political leaders, including in Iran, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. 20. In June 2018, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted, “#Israel is a malignant cancerous tumor in the West Asian region that has to be removed and eradicated: it is possible and it will happen.” Twitter neither deleted the tweet nor banned the Ayatollah. 1. In October 2020, the former Malaysian Prime Minister said it was “a right” for Muslims to “kill millions of French people.” Twitter deleted his tweet for “glorifying violence,” but he remains on the platform. The tweet below was taken from the Wayback Machine:…
    25. But Twitter executives did ban Trump, even though key staffers said that Trump had not incited violence—not even in a “coded” way…32. One hour later, Twitter announces Trump’s permanent suspension “due to the risk of further incitement of violence.”…
   35. By the next day, employees expressed eagerness to tackle “medical misinformation” as soon as possible:… 38. Outside the United States, Twitter’s decision to ban Trump raised alarms, including with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Prime Minister Angela Merkel, and Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. 39. Macron told an audience he didn’t “want to live in a democracy where the key decisions” were made by private players. “I want it to be decided by a law voted by your representative, or by regulation, governance, democratically discussed and approved by democratic leaders.”… 43. Ultimately, the concerns about Twitter’s efforts to censor news about Hunter Biden’s laptop, blacklist disfavored views, and ban a president aren’t about the past choices of executives in a social media company. 44. They’re about the power of a handful of people at a private company to influence the public discourse and democracy…  https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1602376742756196352

@WhitlockJason: Good lord, I read this (above Bari Weiss) thread and just think about how dangerous power is in the hands of a small group of Northern California nut jobs.

@sparklingruby: US Political Misinfo Twitter Detection AI List 1. I have obtained exclusive access to documents that have never been publicly revealed. The information I am about to share with you has never been released. This information is of public concern and the below thread includes my reporting on it…3. Unlike the other writers involved in reporting on The Twitter Files, I do not have access to any direct information from Twitter. My information is from a direct source. I do not have the same level of legal protection these other writers have. I am taking the risk anyway…
   10. What was Twitter searching for? “These are tweets we flagged for removal algorithmically. Some were held up, some reversed. We also searched for context.” 11. “These are phrases we judged when in the right context were indicators of misinfo. Context was important because a journalist could tweet these & it would be okay. One or more of them was fine. In combination & in context, they were used to judge the tweet as misinformation.”…   https://twitter.com/sparklingruby/status/1602357609918599181

@NewsBecker :Jonathan Turley: “The Media is not covering the Twitter Files and the reason why is because they’re heavily invested in this scandal, they’re heavily invested in Hunter Biden — many of these news outlets only recently just acknowledged the laptop is authentic — 2 years later.”
https://twitter.com/NewsBecker/status/1602383856576798720

HIGH-FLYING HYPOCRISY: Biden official takes private jets on taxpayer dime while pushing green agenda. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, an advocate of increased government action to curb carbon emissions, has taken at least 18 flights using taxpayer-funded private jets since taking office… https://fxn.ws/3iSSEAy

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

EXCHANGE: COMEX

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 2070 NOTICES FOR 207,000 OZ or 6.438 TONNES

total notices so far: 18,648 contracts for 1,864,800 oz (58.003 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 110,000 OZ/

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Kranzler and Lundin see gold breaking its chains

The “Barbarous Relic” Helped Enable A World More Civilized than Today’s

Preparing for War Means Preparing for Inflation

Conclusion

Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested In The Bahamas, Charged With Wire/Securities Fraud And Money Laundering

SEC Files Separate Charges Against FTX CEO SBF For “Massive Years Long Fraud”

“Bankman-Fried Was Well Aware”: Digging Into SEC’s Charges Against FTX CEO

“Conspiracy To Defraud The United States”: Feds Charge FTX Founder With Campaign Finance Violations

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Futures Storm Higher Ahead Of Last Most Important Datapoint Of 2022

TUESDAY//MONDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

2B JAPAN

Japan, Netherlands Agree To US Request To Curb Chinese Chip Exports

3c CHINA /

Health Experts Urge Beijing To Accelerate Approval Of Enhanced Covid Jabs Amid ‘Winter Wave’ Of Deaths

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

Poland Aims To Create Largest Land Army In Europe: Report

UK Grid Operator Asks Coal Plants To Be Available For Backup

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//

With 50% Of Energy Facilities Destroyed, Ukraine Urges West For $1BN In Winter Help

4 Minutes Of Undiluted Truth On Mainstream TV

US Set To Send Ukraine Patriot Missiles In Huge Escalation

Great interview

China is in deep trouble, can fall!: “Western Scientists Cheered On China’s Covid Repression” (WSJ); Many public-health elites still won’t admit it was a mistake for West to adopt Beijing’s strategy

Well written piece by Allysia Finley and it is a wonder WSJ published this! My take, omicron will spread (and other variants) & China may actually fall, 1 billion infected, the world is in trouble!

Natural immunity: Dr. Paul Alexander updates Brownstone Institute review showing over 160 pieces of evidence supporting natural innate and acquired-adaptive immunity as superior to vaccine immunity

We should have never forced COVID vaccines on anyone when the evidence shows that naturally acquired immunity is equal to or more robust & superior to existing vaccines.

China exploding! “Top China expert says Covid ‘spreading rapidly’ after rules easing”; look back at my substack below dated November 29th; I said this, the only way is to open up, allow infections

see new graph of China’s infections as of today, the Y axis is wonky, key is YES, massive infections, due to no background immunity, they must use early anti-viral drugs, open up full, get infected!

Banks Freeze Funds of Pro-Free Speech Video Platform Bitchute

December 12, 2022 6:07 pm

Bailouts Start: Union Pensions Get $36 BILLION as BIS Warns of Potential Catastrophic Financial Collapse in 2023

December 12, 2022 8:09 pm

Your Second-To-Last Chance To Get It Wrong In 2022

Why Supertanker Rates Are Suddenly Crashing

Energy Crisis Sparks Mad Dash For Floating LNG Terminals

New Dutch terminal

LNG Deluge

The Black Market For Oil Is Booming

Does Europe really have availed gas as claimed ??

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Soft CPI Sparks Chaos Ahead Of FOMC: Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid; Stocks Skid

Headline CPI Cools More Than Expected But Real Wages Continued To Tumble

Surveying The Market Chaos After The Soft CPI Print…

The Dow Has Given Up All Its CPI-Spike Gains…

RIP Marcus? Goldman Sachs Stops Originating Unsecured Consumer Loans

What’s Inside The House-Passed Military Spending Bill

Military Vaccine Mandate Repealed

No Reinstatement of Troops

Another Million-Dollar Dole to Ukraine

Silence on Pentagon Abortion Policy

Klobuchar Media Bill Fails

SEC Chairman Gensler Scrubbed Evidence Of Clinton, Soros And Pelosi Meetings: FOIA Lawsuit

‘Just A Few Rogue Actors’ Behind Banning Of Trump From Twitter; Nothing To See Here…

Judge Orders Kari Lake And Katie Hobbs To Appear At Emergency Court Hearing Over Election Lawsuit

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