by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $10.00 TO $1920.15

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.19   AT $22.81

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1918.25

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22,75

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Bitcoin morning price:, $30,871  UP 296  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,451  DOWN 124 dollars

Platinum price closing  $906.10 UP  $4/65

Palladium price;     $1232/5- UP $1.80

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,541.28 UP 14 10 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1510,70 DOWN 2.56 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1758.53 UP 2.18 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,909.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/29/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/03/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

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118 C MACQUARIE FUT 199
190 H BMO CAPITAL 200
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 19
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 91
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN 15 27
661 H JP MORGAN 108
690 C ABN AMRO 21
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 17
905 C ADM 48

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TOTAL: 380 380
MONTH TO DATE: 38

JPMorgan stopped 27/380 contracts.

FOR JULY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT:  380 NOTICES FOR 38,000 OZ  or  1.1819 TONNES

total notices so far: 380 contracts for 38,000 oz (1.1819 tonnes)

FOR  JULY:

SILVER NOTICES: 2710 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 13,550,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 2710 for 13,550,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $10.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER  UP 19 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.141 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1380 CONTRACTS TO 117,327 AND FURTHER FROM THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  $0.23 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GOOD SIZED 439 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH .  CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT:  439 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES. 

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,327 CONTRACTS ///JUNE 30.2023//  OUR BANKERS WERE  BASICALLY SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1031 CONTRACTS.   WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.).  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION. TODAY WE WITNESSED FOR THE FOURTH STRAIGHT DAY:  HUGE SPREADER LIQUIDATION ON THE COMEX

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 

A STRONG  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 541 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)   GOOD NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (439 CONTRACTS)//HUGE COMEX SPREADER LIQUIDATION//

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –192  CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 days, total 22,029 contracts:   OR 110.145 MILLION OZ  (1159 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  110.145 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.145 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1572  CONTRACTS WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 439  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF  16.110 MILLION  OZ/////  .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1031 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A GOOD  439//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION BUT THE REAL LIQUIDATION TODAY WAS THAT OF COMEX SPREADERS (CONCLUSION) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (439) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.

WE HAD 2710  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  13,550,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7369  CONTRACTS  TO 436,825 AND FURTHER FROM    THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  REMOVED –594 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 7369 CONTRACTS)  DESPITE OUR $3.20 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  + /A GOOD ISSUANCE OF 690 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $3.20 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 11,265 OI CONTRACTS (35.03 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3896 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 436,825

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,265 CONTRACTS  WITH 7369 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD 690 CONTRACTS) AND A GOOD 3896 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,265 CONTRACTS OR 35.03 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3896 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (7369) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,265 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES   ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  GOOD T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 690 CONTRACTS 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  53,036 CONTRACTS OR 5,303,600 OZ OR 164.96 TONNES IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2791 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  164.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  164.96/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES 

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 164.96 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1572  CONTRACTS OI TO  117,327 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,327 CONTRACTS JUNE 30.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 439  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY  439 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  439  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1527 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 439  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1031 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 5.155 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY   $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.68 PTS OR 0.62%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.93 PTS OR 0.09%        /The Nikkei closed DOWN 45.10 OR 0.14%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.16 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2689  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.2820 /Oil UP TO 69.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 74.59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7369 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 436,825 DESPITE OUR LOSS  IN PRICE OF $3.20 ON THURSDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3896  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  AUGUST 3896 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3896 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 11,265  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3896 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7369 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.20//THURSDAY COMEX.   AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD 690 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JULY  (5.1975) (NON  ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 5.1975 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $3.20) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,265 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT  THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION . THE TAS ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 35.03 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.1975 TONNES)     //  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $3.20. 

WE HAD –REMOVED  594      CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,265  CONTRACTS OR 1,126,500  OZ OR 35.03 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 174,859  POOR

final gold volumes/yesterday   220,784  FAIR

//JUNE 30/ FOR THE JULY  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	225,057 OZ Brinks  7 kilobars         .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	0 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	15,673.410 OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	380  notice(s) 38,000 OZ 1.1819 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1291  contracts    129,100 oz 4.0155 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	380 notices 38,000  OZ 1.1819 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  1

i) Into HSBC: 15,673.410 oz

total deposits: 15,673.410 oz

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

we had 1 customer deposit:

i) Into HSBC:  15,673.410 oz

total deposits:  15,673.410  oz

Adjustments; 1 JPMorgan  dealer to customer

i)482.265 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 1671  contracts having LOST 68 contracts.

Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this non active delivery month of July is as follows:

1671 notices x 100 oz per notice  =   167,100 oz  or 5.1975 tonnes    

AUGUST  GAINED 4846 contracts UP to 346,530 contracts 

SEPT lost 56 contracts down to 13,420. 

We had 380 contracts filed for today representing  38,000  oz  

Today, 8 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  125  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  380   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 27  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (380 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (1671  CONTRACT)  minus the number of notices served upon today  380 x 100 oz per contract equals 167,100 OZ  OR 5.1975 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the  JULY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (380) x 100 oz +  (1671) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (380)  x 100 oz) which equals 167,100 oz standing OR 5.1975 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 5.1975 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold:  2,063,541.609  OZ   64.18 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,404,531.897 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,808,038.075   (367,27  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,596.493.822 O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,744,979.00 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 303.109 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

JUNE 30//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	152,182.899 oz CNT Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	2,950,873.420   oz Brinks Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	2710  CONTRACT(S)    (13,550,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	512 contracts  (2,560,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2710 Contracts  (13,550,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposits 

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

total dealer deposits:  0

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We had 2 deposits customer account:

i) Into Brinks:  1,800,557.143 oz

ii) Into Delaware 1,150,316.340 oz

total customer deposits: 2,950,873.483 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.315  million oz/276.512 million =51.03% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals 2

i) Out of CNT  145,172.850 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 7010.049 oz

total withdrawals: 152,182.899     oz  

adjustments:  1

a whopper:  6,825,153.420 oz adjusted customer to dealer account: Brinks

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.996 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276.512 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 3222   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 4053  CONTRACT(S).

THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER OZ STANDING IN THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY IS AS FOLLOWS:

3222 NOTICES   X  5000 OZ PER NOTICE  =   16,110,000 OZ  

AUGUST GAINED 60 CONTRACTS TO STAND  AT 433

SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 2334 CONTRACTS UP TO 100,609

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2710 for 13,550,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 43,382    POOR /

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday:63,792    GOOD

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2710 x  5,000 oz = 13,550,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(3222) and the number of notices served upon today 2710 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month:  2710 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (3222) – number of notices served upon today (2710 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 16.110 million oz  + 

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES

JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES

JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES

MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES

MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 924.50 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 550,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN $.13 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 266,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT  466.809 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER  DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.015 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49  CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//

MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//

MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//

MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION  OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ

MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 4668.141 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This new Moscow gold exchange will be part of the  gold-Brics currency format to be rolled out AUG 22

Moscow Exchange launches quarterly gold futures, plans perpetual futures soon

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-06-30 00:05Section: Daily Dispatches

Moscow Exchange to Launch Perpetual Gold Futures in July

From Interfax, Moscow
Thursday, June 29, 2023

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91995/

MOSCOW — The Moscow Exchange plans to start trading in perpetual gold futures in the near future, Maria Patrikeyeva, head of the exchange’s derivatives market, said.

“We launched settled quarterly gold futures yesterday, and in the near future, in July, we will launch new perpetual gold futures,” Patrikeyeva said at the press lunch “Options Market on the Moscow Exchange: New Opportunities.”

The Moscow Exchange began trading in settled futures contracts for gold in Russian rubles on June 28.

The underlying asset is the GLDRUB_TOM instrument from the exchange’s precious metals market. A lot is 1 gram, the tick size is 0.1 rubles, and tick value is also 0.1 rubles. 

The strike price is the RUGOLD index price, calculated by the Moscow Exchange on the basis of transactions with the underlying asset in the precious metals market on the day the contract is settled.

Contracts with settlement in September and December 2023 as well as in March and June 2024 are admitted to trading.

The Moscow Exchange also trades settled futures for gold denominated in U.S. dollars, as well as a spot instrument for gold on the precious metals market.

* * *

END

Your weekend reading material

Alasdair Macleod…

Alasdair Macleod: Geopolitical evolution

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-06-29 10:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, June 29, 2023

The increasing number of nations seeking to join the BRICS brings geopolitics into the spotlight. At the time of this writing, existing members, those who have applied to join, and those expressing an interest total 36 nations, with over 60% of the world’s population and a third of global GDP.

Plans for a new trade currency backed by gold appear to be on the agenda for the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg in August. In this article the geopolitical aspects of its introduction are considered, and the indications that how it will involve gold are discussed. The mechanics of this project are then suggested.

But first we look at the situation in Ukraine, attempting to put the recent Wagner rebellion into context. 

Furthermore, Russia’s deteriorating trade surplus, weakness of the rouble, and rising bond yields suggest that it is time for President Putin to put an end to Ukraine’s misery. He is likely to do this by attacking Kiev, which is only 60 miles from Belarus, while the bulk of Ukraine’s army is distracted by operations over 400 miles to the south and east. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/geopolitical-evolution-2023?gmrefcode=gata

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/

The apocalyptic 8000-tonne gold miscalculation

Search

EPISODE 129

The apocalyptic 8000-tonne gold miscalculation

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: 

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2689 

OFFSHORE YUAN:  DOWN TO 7.2820

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.68 PTS OR 0.62% 

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 17.93 PTS OR 0.09% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 45.10 PTS OR 0.14%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  103.07 EURO FALLS TO 1.0852 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.397 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.71/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN:  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4275***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.101*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.415…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.675

3j Gold at $1907.20 silver at: 22.44 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1  AND  83 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.12//

3m oil into the  69  dollar handle for WTI and 74  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.71//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .397% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9008 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9779 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.876  UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.926 UP 2  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.918 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.05…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.488 UP 14 PTS 

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Rise As Apple Market Cap Tops $3 Trillion

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 08:20 AM

The second quarter – and first half – of 2023 is coming to a close on an upbeat note, as US equity futures are higher, led by megacap tech, and especially Apple, which is set to open with a market cap over $3 trillion following a bizarre initiation report from Citi yesterday late, which set a $240 price target on the world’s biggest company, just in time to catch its all time high. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were 0.4% higher, set to close out a third straight quarterly gain…

… while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, indicating the index is set to extend its 37% surge since the start of the year, its best start to the year since 1982.

Treasuries extended a selloff, with yields rising 4-6 bps across the curve as two-year yields rose about five basis points to 4.92%, adding to Thursday’s 16-point jump. The 10-year yield increased three points to its highest level since mid-March. Swap markets now indicate a nearly 50% chance of a second US hike by year-end sparked by robust US economic growth and jobs data that fueled bets on more interest rate hikes. The USD is higher, and commodities are mixed with the energy complex higher and base metals lower. Today, focus will be on the latest PCE report where consensus expects core PCE to print 4.7% vs. 4.7% prior and headline PCE to drop to 3.8% vs. 4.4% prior. In addition, keep an eye on Personal Income/ Spending, MNI Chicago PMI and the revision of UMich. data. Also, the supreme Court will decide on Biden’s student loan forgiveness today.

In premarket trading, it was a less positive picture for sportswear giant Nike, whose shares fell 3.7% after the retailer’s outlook for the full year failed to impress. While sales beat forecasts, however, and analysts highlighted Nike’s better-than-anticipated performance in China as a bright spot. The results also showed Nike is still working to sell off its high stockpiles of merchandise that have eroded profitability. “Nike is a solid brand,” said Neil Saunders, an analyst at GlobalData Retail. But “it isn’t on the front foot either, and has to accept that the year ahead will be one of resetting, retrenching, and reformulating the way it does business.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Apple shares rise 0.8% in premarket trading Friday, with the iPhone maker’s market value set to exceed the historic $3 trillion threshold.
• Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 19% in US premarket trading after the drug developer said that it is exploring options, including a sale. Analysts say the announcement is positive for the shares and could see the company being an attractive target for a bigger pharma firm in the rheumatology space, touting a possible takeout price in the high teens.
• XPeng shares jump over 7% in US premarket trading after the Chinese company unveiled its new G6 electric SUV. Analysts say the product has a competitive price and could stock sales.
• Smart Global shares rose 5.2% in post-market trading after the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate at the midpoint.

Thursday’s readings on US jobless claims and the gross domestic product showed the world’s biggest economy was in better shape than many had envisioned at the start of 2023. After the data came out, the US yield-curve inversion intensified — with longer-dated yields rising less than shorter-maturity ones. That means the economy may look stronger now, but investors expect the Fed’s rate increases to curb future growth, which could boost the risk of a recession down the road.

Bets on further Fed tightening will be will be tested by US price measures due Friday, including figures on personal income and spending as well as the PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation pressures. The numbers are expected to show some softening while still indicating inflation remains sticky.

“Markets are still really caught up in the ‘strong data’ narrative,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. “But ultimately the Fed’s going to be focused on where inflation is right now. It’s going to be a more difficult decision for them in July, especially given how much tightening they’ve already put in the system that still has to play out.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed more than 1% led by energy, real estate and banks, with all sectors rising barring tech. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.6%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 0.9%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.6%. Among individual movers, Engie SA rose after the French utility raised its full-year earnings forecast. ASML Holding NV dropped after the Dutch chipmaker was slapped with more restrictions on exports to China. The European benchmark is on track to end the quarter flat after failing to build on its 7.8% first-quarter gain amid outflows from European stocks totaling $27 billion this year. A gauge of global equities, meanwhile, headed for a quarterly rise of 4.5%, defying rising interest rates and the risk of recessions in major economies. Here are today’s most notable movers:

• Kion shares rise as much as 7.6%, the most since November, with Warburg expecting the German warehouse equipment firm to present solid second-quarter figures on 27 July
• LEG Immobilien jumped 7.5% after the German real estate company boosted its guidance for adjusted funds from operations and EBITDA margin for the full year, boosting the whole real estate sector
• Steico rises as much as 11% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation to overweight, saying the manufacturer of insulation materials is close to the bottom of the downgrade cycle
• Societe Generale rises as much as 2.3% to a one-month high after Deutsche Bank raised its recommendation to buy from hold, noting tailwinds for 2024 such as a recovery in NII
• Engie rises as much as 2.7% after the French utility raised its FY earnings forecast. Morgan Stanley attributes the guide upgrade stems to the company’s global energy management and sales
• Drax shares climb as much as 3.9% after Credit Suisse raised its recommendation on the British utility to outperform saying the valuation looks attractive on most cashflow-based metrics
• Nordex rises as much as 4.5% after Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of the German wind turbine maker with buy, saying it’s well-positioned in most key regions with impressive recent share gain
• ASML falls as much as 3.8%, its biggest intraday decline since April, after a Reuters report said the US plans to force the company to ship fewer of its deep ultraviolet lithography machines to China
• Bawag shares fell the most in more than three months, tumbling as much as 14% in Vienna, after activist investor Petrus Advisers Ltd. published a report that identified potential red flags
• Aperam slides as much as 7.1% after the steelmaker was downgraded by two brokerage firms. Degroof Petercam cuts the stock to hold, citing a lack of short-term visibility on earnings recovery
• Fevertree shares drop as much as 7.4%, the most intraday since April 27, after Bank of America cut its recommendation on the high-end tonic maker to underperform, citing an “unjustified” valuation

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded with cautious gains amid the higher yield environment and as participants digested a slew of data releases at quarter-end including the latest Chinese official PMIs.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially choppy but ultimately gained after the latest Chinese PMI data in which headline Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and Non-Manufacturing PMI was slightly softer-than-expected although remained at a firm expansion.
• ASX 200 lacked direction as gains in the commodity-related sectors and utilities offset losses in real estate and tech.
• Nikkei 225 was subdued after mixed data releases including disappointing Industrial Production and softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI although the losses were cushioned as USD/JPY briefly climbed above 145.00.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains little changed; NOK/USD leads G-10 gains climbing 0.5%, while EURUSD slumps 0.2% after data showed euro-area core inflation re-accelerating. The yen briefly weakened past 145 for the first time since November, putting markets on watch for possible Japanese intervention. It since retraced to around 144.70 after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters the government would respond appropriately to any excessive moves in the currency market. The offshore yuan remained in the spotlight after the recent slide to its lowest level in seven months. It appreciated Friday, for the first time in three days, after the People’s Bank of China again set the daily reference rate for currency at a level stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The currency is down almost 5% against the dollar this year, prompting extra scrutiny from Chinese regulators, according to people familiar with the matter. Purchasing managers’ index data from China on Friday underscored concern that the economy is losing steam, bolstering calls for more policy support.

In rates, treasuries extended a weekly slide gilts fall sharply following a bundle of UK economic data. Treasury losses continued to be led by front-end and belly of the curve, deepening inversion of 2s10s, 5s30s spreads. Yields on the two- year climbing six basis points to 4.92% and yields on the 10- year rising 4 basis points to 3.88%; euro bonds see broad-based selling. 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1.3bp and 2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.87%, cheaper by 3bp vs Thursday close. Yields except 30-year are at highest levels since March as expectations have mounted for two more Fed rate increases this year, and the Bloomberg Treasury Index is headed for a second straight monthly loss. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm is estimated to extend its duration by 0.07 year. US session includes May personal income and spending report that embeds PCE deflators.

Yields on European bonds retreated from session highs and the euro pared a decline after data showed inflation in the common-currency area slowed more than economists’ expectations in June. Core prices re-accelerated, though, in a setback for the European Central Bank that may reinforce its determination to raise interest rates next month.

“An extra interest rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting is nearly a done deal,” said Daniele Antonucci, chief economist and macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank. “Further out, the picture is less clear. How far the ECB will have to go remains an open question and depends on how much it’s willing to sacrifice in terms of job losses.”

In commodities, WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $70.54. Brent crude oil is on track for the worst run of quarterly losses in three decades as persistent concerns over the demand outlook and robust supplies weigh on prices. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,903/oz.

Bitcoin is on a firmer footing intraday but remains under the USD 31k level. RBNZ is to ramp up monitoring of stablecoins and crypto assets but noted that regulation of crypto assets is not currently required.

Looking at today’s data, releases include the Euro Area flash CPI reading for June. In Germany, we’ll also get retail sales for May and unemployment for June. And in the US, there’s the PCE reading for May, and personal income and personal spending data.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,442.00
• MXAP down 0.2% to 162.88
• MXAPJ little changed at 512.81
• Nikkei down 0.1% to 33,189.04
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,288.60
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 18,916.43
• Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,202.06
• Sensex up 1.0% to 64,562.15
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,203.30
• Kospi up 0.6% to 2,564.28
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 459.63
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0839
• Brent Futures up 0.9% to $75.02/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,900.84
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 103.53

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• China’s June NBS PMIs better than feared, with manufacturing ticking up to 49 (vs. 48.8 in May and inline w/the Street) while services cool to 53.2 (down from 54.5 in May and a tiny bit below the Street’s 53.5 forecast). RTRS
• U.S. counterintelligence officials are amping up warnings to American executives about fresh dangers to doing business in China under an amended Chinese law to combat espionage. WSJ
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI for June undershoots the Street, coming in at +3.1% headline (vs. the Street’s +3.4% and down from +3.2% in May) and +3.8% core (vs. the Street’s +4% and down from +3.9% in May. BBG
• ECB’s hawkishness in part a function of events in the UK where inflation continues to surprise to the upside (ECB officials don’t want to take their foot off the tightening gas until they are absolutely certain core inflation is on a sustainable downward trajectory). FT 
• Eurozone CPI for June undershoots the Street, with headline coming in at +5.5% (vs. the Street +5.6% and down from +6.1% in May) and core +5.4% (vs. the Street +5.5% and up from +5.3% in May). BBG
• “Shaky” flows into Pimco are prompting Allianz to push deeper into alternative asset classes such as real estate, where manager’s fees tend to be higher and client assets are stickier. While the bond manager attracted €14 billion in the first quarter after a €75 billion streak of outflows, investors are still skittish, Allianz CEO Oliver Baete said. BBG
• PCE: Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.32% month-over-month in May, corresponding to a 4.64% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.13% in May, corresponding to a 3.87% increase from a year earlier. We expect that personal income increased by 0.5% and personal spending increased by 0.2% in May. GIR
• NKE delivered a solid F4Q23 revenue result, with stronger DTC growth and momentum in Greater China driving the outperformance. However, we note that this was offset by weaker than expected F4Q margins and a below-consensus F1Q guide. We step away from the quarter with our constructive view intact. While near-term growth and margins are more challenged than our expectations on wholesale shipment timing / liquidation sales / transitory cost headwinds / SG&A investments, we believe this quarter continued to deliver several key proofpoints of the bull case. GIR
• META is planning to allow people in the EU download apps through Facebook ads, a move that will eventually put it in direct competition w/the app stores from Google and Apple. The Verge
• Nasdaq 100 GREEN in July 15 consecutive years with an avg return of +4.64%…

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains amid the higher yield environment and as participants digested a slew of data releases at quarter-end including the latest Chinese official PMIs. ASX 200 lacked direction as gains in the commodity-related sectors and utilities offset losses in real estate and tech. Nikkei 225 was subdued after mixed data releases including disappointing Industrial Production and softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI although the losses were cushioned as USD/JPY briefly climbed above 145.00. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially choppy but ultimately gained after the latest Chinese PMI data in which headline Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and Non-Manufacturing PMI was slightly softer-than-expected although remained at a firm expansion.

Top Asian News

• China may announce more property market support measures although measures might be incremental, while China is expected to revise certain home purchase restrictions and has room to lower the down payment ratio, according to China Securities Journal.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2258 vs exp. 7.2525 (prev. 7.2208).
• PBoC surveyed some foreign banks about USD deposit rates, according to Reuters sources.
• Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp, one-sided currency moves are seen recently, and they are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency. Matsuno said they are to take appropriate steps on excess FX moves, according to Reuters.
• Japan MOF says FX intervention amounted to JPY 0.00 in the period from May 30th to June 28th, according to Reuters.

European bourses trade on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with gains, with little action seen on the EZ Flash CPI metrics. US equity futures are around flat/tilting higher ahead of today’s key PCE data for May, before traders head out for the long Independence Day holiday weekend. Equity sectors in Europe are higher across the board with the exception of technology which is being weighed on by ASML which is also acting as a drag on the AEX following news that the Dutch Foreign Ministry has issued new computer chip equipment export rules whereby an export license will be required for certain technologies.

Top European News

• ASML Hit With New Dutch Limits on Chip Gear Exports to China
• Fevertree Drops After Bank of America Cuts to Underperform
• Polish Inflation Eases for Fourth Month, Fueling Rate Cut Bets
• ASML Says Dutch Measures Won’t Have ‘Material Impact’ on Outlook
• Germany June Adj. Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.7%; Est. 5.6%
• Swiss Chalets Become Target Amid Eastern Europe’s Property Woes

FX

• DXY remains relatively resilient and firmly underpinned, with the index forming a solid base above 103.000 between 103.23-54 parameters.
• EUR was unreactive to a batch of mixed EZ data, whilst headline inflation printed cooler than expected, although the core metrics marginally topped expectations.
• Cyclical currencies are held up fairly well on the back of buoyant risk appetite.
• Kiwi got another confidence boost from an improvement in ANZ consumer sentiment.
• Yen is flat despite more verbal intervention from Japanese officials.
• Brazil’s Finance Minister said the National Monetary Council decided to set the 2026 inflation target at 3%, while the government expects rates to fall from August, according to Reuters.

Fixed Income

• Debt futures appear destined for a bleak finish and further losses heading into month, quarter, HY-end.
• Bunds, Gilts and the T-note hover precariously over deeper intraday lows, at 133.09, 94.71 and 111-25+ respectively.

Geopolitics

• The US is expected to curb exports of some Dutch chip equipment to specific facilities in China, according to a source cited by Reuters. ASML (ASML NA) does not expect the Dutch government’s chip export measures to have a material impact on its financial outlook, according to the press release.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said he sees no argument for a Black Sea Grain Deal extension, according to a press conference.
• US State Department approved the potential sale of logistics supply support to Taiwan for an estimated cost of USD 108mln, while it approved the possible sale of 30mm ammunition and related equipment to Taiwan for an estimated USD 332mln, according to Reuters.
• Australian and EU trade ministers spoke as hopes of a free trade deal rise, according to Reuters citing sources; there is optimism a deal could be struck by mid-year. Another meeting could be held next fortnight.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent front-month futures are on a firmer footing intraday despite the firmer Dollar but as equities see cautious gains.
• Spot gold remains heavy as the Dollar extends gains, with the yellow metal threatening another breach of USD 1,900/oz to the downside this morning
• Base metals are mostly but copper bucks the trend and outperforms, with the LME 3M contract back above USD 8,250/t at the time of writing. Reports last night noted an electrical accident at Codelco’s largest copper mine – the El Teniente mine.
• HSBC lowered Brent oil price assumptions to USD 80/bl in H2’23, USD 80/bl in FY23, USD 75/b in FY24 and long-term, according to Reuters.
• Boliden’s (BOL SS) Ronnskar production partially resumed; several of production lines may have to operate at limited capacity; all other production lines at Ronnskar are expected to ready for production during July.
• Shanghai INE adjusts trading limit and margin requirements for international copper and crude oil futures, effective from settlement on July 4, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: May Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • May Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • May Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
  • May PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
  • May PCE Deflator YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 4.4%
  • May PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.7%
  • May PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 09:45: June MNI Chicago PMI, est. 43.8, prior 40.4
• 10:00: June U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 63.9, prior 63.9
  • June U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 61.3, prior 61.3
  • June U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 68.0, prior 68.0
  • June U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
  • June U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last day of H1. We’ll have our full review on Monday but with a day left to go here is a quick and selected spot check of where we are in 2023 so far. The S&P 500 is +14.5%, the Nasdaq +29.9%, FANG+ +70.9%, EU Stoxx 600 +7.5%, 2 and 10yr USTs +43.4bps and -3.7bps, 2 and 10yr Gilts +170bps and +71bps, EU Crossover -68.7bps, CDX HY +1.4bps and with Crude Oil -13.47%. So in general a good half year for risk, with yield curves steepening and long-term bond yields going mostly sideways unless of course you’re in the UK. H1 has mostly been a risk rebound from stressed levels in 2022 so the performance should be put in some perspective but with AI giving things an added kicker. Let’s see what H2 brings. Much will depend on whether the US recession starts. We still think it does in Q4 with risks that it gets delayed to Q1 rather than doesn’t happen. There’s a long long way before you can be sure you’re out of the gravitational pull of the lag of aggressively tighter monetary policy over the last year or so. Remember that this time last year the ECB was only about to end QE on July 1st and hike rates at the end of that month.

The recession call was something we asked in our summer survey this week. We’ve now released the results in a slidepack (link here). It’s evident that a lot of people are pushing back their timing of the next US recession, but mostly that’s just a shift from 2023 into 2024, rather than thinking we’ll avoid one altogether. We’ve also seen more bearishness since our last survey, with a majority now expecting the next 10% move in the S&P to be down rather than up (the opposite to the last survey), whilst it’s pretty much 50/50 as to whether 10yr Treasury yields hit 4.5% or 2.5% first. For other opinions on central banks, ChatGPT and the chance of Donald Trump being President again, click on the full chartbook for more.

The big story of the last 24 hours was another strong round of US data, which triggered a massive bond selloff that sent Treasury yields to their highest levels since SVB collapsed. In particular, the latest weekly US jobless claims dropped back to 239k (vs. 265k expected), marking their biggest single-week decline since October 2021, and importantly ending a run of 5 consecutive weekly gains. Alongside that, the continuing claims fell to their lowest level since February, and the latest Q1 GDP data saw a big upward revision to a +2.0% annualised pace, having previously been estimated at +1.3%.

All this positive data played into the recent market narrative, which is that strong growth and sticky inflation will see central banks hold rates at restrictive levels for much longer than previously expected. In fact, if you look at market pricing for deep into 2024, it was clear how investors were adjusting to a much more prolonged period of high rates. For instance, expectations for the Fed’s policy rate by December 2024 moved back above 4% again to their highest level since SVB’s collapse (the low was 2.70% after peaking at 4.22% before SVB). Now admittedly, that’s still beneath the 4.6% level in the Fed’s latest dot plot, but it shows how markets are increasingly coming round to the Fed’s view of the world.

This shift was evident for the very near-term as well, with futures now pricing in a 83% chance of a July hike, the highest to date. They even see a 38% chance that by November the Fed will now deliver the second additional hike they signalled for 2023. So that’s still some way from 100%, but it goes to show how the previous scepticism towards two more Fed hikes is increasingly fading. US Core PCE will be a big event on this front today.

This re-appraisal of the outlook was very bad news for Treasuries across the board. It saw the 10yr yield surge by +13.1bps on the day to 3.84%, marking its highest level since SVB’s collapse in March. At the same time, the 2yr yield (+15.4bps) hit a post-SVB high of its own at 4.86%, and thus inverting the 2s10s curve further to -102.1bps. Meanwhile the 6m T-bill (+1.0bps) rose to its highest level since 2001, at 5.46%. It was real yields that led the gains as well, with the 2yr real yield (+12.6bps) hitting a post-2008 high of 2.79%, and another milestone was reached after the 5yr real yield crossed the 2% mark on an intraday basis for the first time since 2008 (ending the day at 1.99%).

With all eyes on central banks and the rates path, markets will now focus on today’s Euro Area flash CPI print for June, with particular attention on the core reading. Ahead of that, we got some more of the country releases yesterday, including from Germany, the largest European economy. That showed a rebound in inflation to +6.8% on the EU-harmonised measure as expected, up from +6.3% in May. In part, the rebound occurred because last year saw an offer of cheap rail tickets that dropped outside the annual comparison. But there was also an upside in Spain as well, since even as headline inflation dropped beneath the ECB’s 2% target, core inflation (on the national definition) still came in at +5.9% (vs. +5.5% expected). With the country releases so far, our Euro Area economists see slight upside risks to the +5.6% yoy headline (+5.5% core) consensus expectation for today.

We’ll have to see what today’s numbers show, but the movements in European rates very much followed what happened in the US yesterday. That included rises in yields on 10yr bunds (+10.3bps), OATs (+10.9bps) and BTPs (+12.1bps), along with a more moderate rise for gilts (+6.3bps). Similarly, investors also grew in confidence that the ECB would keep taking rates higher, and now see a 58% chance that we’ll have had two hikes by the time of the meeting-after-next in September.

Despite the rates move, equities were remarkably resilient, with the S&P 500 posting a +0.45% gain. Banks (+2.62%) led the advance amidst the prospect of higher rates, and positive US stress test results the night before, but other cyclical sectors also put in a decent performance. Indeed, the small-cap Russell 2000 advanced for a 4th consecutive day, finishing +1.23% by the close. By contrast, the NASDAQ index was unchanged (-0.00%), with the tech megacap FANG+ index underperforming (-0.75%). Back in Europe there were also modest advances, with the STOXX 600 posting a modest +0.13% gain.

Asian equity markets are mixed on the final trading day of the first half of the year. As I type, the Nikkei (-0.53%) is struggling with the Hang Seng (-0.05%) swinging between gains and losses. Otherwise, the Shanghai Composite (+0.73%), the CSI (+0.54%) and the KOSPI (+0.28%) are gaining ground this morning. In overnight trading, US stock futures are slightly higher with those on the S&P 500 (+0.07%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.18%) printing mild gains.

Early morning data showed that China’s factory activity remained in contraction territory in June as the official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, barely improving from prior month’s reading of 48.8, thus adding pressure on the administration to deliver more stimulus. Additionally, the services sector also recorded its weakest reading since China abandoned its stringent COVID curbs late last year. The official non-manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 from 54.5 in May, highlighting that the recovery in the world’s second biggest economy has lost some traction.

Elsewhere, consumer prices in Tokyo rose +3.1% y/y in June (+3.4% expected, down from the +3.2% recorded in the preceding month). Ex-food and energy came in at 3.8% vs. 4% expected. Separately, Japan’s labour market remained tight as the jobless rate remained unchanged at 2.6% in May while industrial output contracted -1.6% m/m in May, its first fall since January (v/s -1.0% decline expected) after increasing +0.7% previously.

In FX, the Japanese yen went past the 145 mark versus the US dollar in early Asia trade, touching its lowest in over seven months, prompting more intervention calls. They intervened at around 146 last year. Meanwhile, slightly hawkish comments on desired FX stability from Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki did trigger the pair’s retreat from 145.07 earlier to 144.71 as we go to print.

When it came to yesterday’s other data, UK mortgage approvals saw a larger-than-expected increase in May to 50.5k (vs. 49.7k expected). Furthermore, the M4 money supply came in unchanged on a year-on-year basis, which is the lowest it’s been since September 2015. Elsewhere, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area continued to decline, with a move to a 7-month low of 95.3 in June (vs. 95.7 expected), adding to the negative trend in Euro Area data surprises over the past two months.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI reading for June. In Germany, we’ll also get retail sales for May and unemployment for June. And in the US, there’s the PCE reading for May, and personal income and personal spending data.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

Equities are firmer while bonds dip and Dollar’s bid ahead of US PCE – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 05:58 AM

• European bourses trade on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with gains, with little action seen on the EZ Flash CPI metrics.
• US equity futures are around flat/tilting higher ahead of today’s key PCE data for May, before traders head out for the long Independence Day holiday weekend.
• ASML does not expect the Dutch government’s chip export measures to have a material impact on its financial outlook.
• China may announce more property market support measures although measures might be incremental, according to China Securities Journal.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE, EU leaders’ meeting

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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses trade on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with gains, with little action seen on the EZ Flash CPI metrics.
• US equity futures are around flat/tilting higher ahead of today’s key PCE data for May, before traders head out for the long Independence Day holiday weekend.
• Equity sectors in Europe are higher across the board with the exception of technology which is being weighed on by ASML which is also acting as a drag on the AEX following news that the Dutch Foreign Ministry has issued new computer chip equipment export rules whereby an export license will be required for certain technologies.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.

FX

• DXY remains relatively resilient and firmly underpinned, with the index forming a solid base above 103.000 between 103.23-54 parameters.
• EUR was unreactive to a batch of mixed EZ data, whilst headline inflation printed cooler than expected, although the core metrics marginally topped expectations.
• Cyclical currencies are held up fairly well on the back of buoyant risk appetite.
• Kiwi got another confidence boost from an improvement in ANZ consumer sentiment.
• Yen is flat despite more verbal intervention from Japanese officials.
• Brazil’s Finance Minister said the National Monetary Council decided to set the 2026 inflation target at 3%, while the government expects rates to fall from August, according to Reuters.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here for the notable option expiries.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt futures appear destined for a bleak finish and further losses heading into month, quarter, HY-end.
• Bunds, Gilts and the T-note hover precariously over deeper intraday lows, at 133.09, 94.71 and 111-25+ respectively.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent front-month futures are on a firmer footing intraday despite the firmer Dollar but as equities see cautious gains.
• Spot gold remains heavy as the Dollar extends gains, with the yellow metal threatening another breach of USD 1,900/oz to the downside this morning
• Base metals are mostly but copper bucks the trend and outperforms, with the LME 3M contract back above USD 8,250/t at the time of writing. Reports last night noted an electrical accident at Codelco’s largest copper mine – the El Teniente mine.
• HSBC lowered Brent oil price assumptions to USD 80/bl in H2’23, USD 80/bl in FY23, USD 75/b in FY24 and long-term, according to Reuters.
• Boliden’s (BOL SS) Ronnskar production partially resumed; several of production lines may have to operate at limited capacity; all other production lines at Ronnskar are expected to ready for production during July.
• Shanghai INE adjusts trading limit and margin requirements for international copper and crude oil futures, effective from settlement on July 4, according to Reuters.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed Discount Window loans at USD 3.21bln in June 28th week (prev. USD 3.21bln W/W), while BTFP lending was USD 103.1bln (prev. USD 102.7bln W/W) and ‘Other credit’ was USD 168.3bln (prev. USD 172.3bln W/W).
• Nike (NKE) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.66 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 12.83bln (exp. 12.59bln). North America revenue USD 5.36bln (exp. 5.28bln). EMEA revenue USD 3.35bln (exp. 3.29bln). Greater China rev. USD 1.81bln (exp. 1.64bln). Asia Pacific & Latin America rev. USD 1.70bln (exp. 1.72bln). Inventory USD 8.45bln (exp. 8.88bln). Guides FY24 rev. growth of mid-single digits and gross margin growth of 140bps-160bps, according to earnings call. (Newswires) NKE shares -4.3% after-market.

EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• German Retail Sales YY Real* (May) -3.6% vs. Exp. -4.3% (Prev. -4.3%)
• German Retail Sales MM Real* (May) 0.4% (Prev. 0.8%)
• UK Nationwide house price mm* (Jun) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
• UK Nationwide house price yy* (Jun) -3.5% vs. Exp. -4.0% (Prev. -3.4%)
• German Import Prices YY* (May) -9.1% vs. Exp. -9.1% (Prev. -7.0%)
• German Import Prices MM* (May) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.4% (Prev. -1.7%)
• UK GDP YY * (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• UK GDP QQ * (Q1) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
• German Unemployment Change SA (Jun) 28.0k vs. Exp. 13.0k (Prev. 9.0k)
• German Unemployment Rate SA (Jun) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.6%)
• EU HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY (Jun) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.3%)
• EU HICP-X F&E Flash YY (Jun) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.7% (Prev. 6.9%)
• EU HICP Flash YY (Jun) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 6.1%)
• EU Unemployment Rate (May) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%)

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on a firmer footing intraday but remains under the USD 31k level.
• RBNZ is to ramp up monitoring of stablecoins and crypto assets but noted that regulation of crypto assets is not currently required.

GEOPOLITICS

• The US is expected to curb exports of some Dutch chip equipment to specific facilities in China, according to a source cited by Reuters. ASML (ASML NA) does not expect the Dutch government’s chip export measures to have a material impact on its financial outlook, according to the press release.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said he sees no argument for a Black Sea Grain Deal extension, according to a press conference.
• US State Department approved the potential sale of logistics supply support to Taiwan for an estimated cost of USD 108mln, while it approved the possible sale of 30mm ammunition and related equipment to Taiwan for an estimated USD 332mln, according to Reuters.
• Australian and EU trade ministers spoke as hopes of a free trade deal rise, according to Reuters citing sources; there is optimism a deal could be struck by mid-year. Another meeting could be held next fortnight.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains amid the higher yield environment and as participants digested a slew of data releases at quarter-end including the latest Chinese official PMIs.
• ASX 200 lacked direction as gains in the commodity-related sectors and utilities offset losses in real estate and tech.
• Nikkei 225 was subdued after mixed data releases including disappointing Industrial Production and softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI although the losses were cushioned as USD/JPY briefly climbed above 145.00.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially choppy but ultimately gained after the latest Chinese PMI data in which headline Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and Non-Manufacturing PMI was slightly softer-than-expected although remained at a firm expansion.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China may announce more property market support measures although measures might be incremental, while China is expected to revise certain home purchase restrictions and has room to lower the down payment ratio, according to China Securities Journal.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2258 vs exp. 7.2525 (prev. 7.2208).
• PBoC surveyed some foreign banks about USD deposit rates, according to Reuters sources.
• Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said sharp, one-sided currency moves are seen recently, and they are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency. Matsuno said they are to take appropriate steps on excess FX moves, according to Reuters.
• Japan MOF says FX intervention amounted to JPY 0.00 in the period from May 30th to June 28th, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 49.0 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.8)
• Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 54.5)
• Chinese Composite PMI (Jun) 52.3 (Prev. 52.9)
• Japanese Industrial Production MM (May P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Japanese Industrial Production YY (May P) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. -0.7%)
• Tokyo CPI YY (Jun) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.2%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jun) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.2%)
• Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jun) 3.8% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.9%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.68 PTS OR 0.62%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.93 PTS OR 0.09%        /The Nikkei closed DOWN 45.10 OR 0.14%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.16 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2689  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.2820 /Oil UP TO 69.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 74.59 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK

Oh my goodness! They have closed Nigel Farage’s bank accounts for no reason!!

a must view/read

(zerohedge)

“Life In The UK Is Becoming Completely Unlivable” – Brexiteer Farage Is Being Systemically Un-Banked

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Despite winning the “news presenter of the year” award, Nigel Farage has mixed feelings this week.

In the following clip, he reveals his concern about a recent development that may significantly impact his future career and even his ability to live in the UK.

The Brexit-provocateur shares his experience of having his bank accounts abruptly closed by a major banking group, without a valid reason provided.

Worse still, he discloses his attempts to open new accounts with several other banks, all of which have been unsuccessful so far.

Farage speculates on three possible reasons for his inability to secure a bank account:

1. the EU’s definition of a politically exposed person (PEP),
2. prejudice from corporate institutions, and
3. false allegations made by a member of Parliament regarding funds from the Russian government.

If they can do it to him, do you have any doubt that you are at risk?

Watch the full Farage address below: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/life-uk-becoming-completely-unlivable-brexiteer-farage-being-systemically-un-banked

Full Transcript (emphasis ours):

Hello there.

Now you would think in the light of this that I’d be pretty happy – I mean, you know, ‘news presenter of the year’ award was pretty cool and a massive thanks to all of those people out there that voted for me.

The establishment were of course appalled because they in their little London bubble think that I’m incredibly unpopular.

Well in Notting Hill I might be maybe, not quite so in the rest of the country.

But actually truth is, I’m not full of the joys of spring.

I’ve been living with something for the last couple of months that may well fundamentally affect my future career going on from here, and whether I could even stay living in this country.

I have been with the same banking group since 1980. I’ve had my personal accounts with them since that date and my business accounts right through the 1990s when I worked in the city of London, and in recent years too, and with one of the subsidiaries of this big banking group – one with a very prestigious name.

But I won’t name them just yet.

I got a phone call a couple of months ago to say we are closing your accounts.

I asked why – no reason was given. I was told a letter would come which would explain everything. The letter came through and simply said we are closing your accounts – we want to finish it all by a date which is around about now.

I didn’t quite know what to make of it. I complained. I emailed the chairman. A Lackey phoned me to say that it was a commercial decision – which I have to say I don’t believe for a single moment.

So I thought well there we are, I’ll have to go and find a different bank.

I’ve been to six, uh no seven, banks actually and asked them all could I have a personal and a business account and the answer has been no in every single case.

There is nothing irregular or unusual about what I do – the payments that go in and come out every month are pretty much the same. I maintain in my business account quite a big positive cash balance, which I guess with interest rates where they are is pretty good for the bank too.

So why is this happening to me?

Well one explanation is this – a few years ago the European Union came up with a definition of somebody called a ‘PEP’ -a ‘politically exposed person’.

Now this could range from anybody from a prime minister down to a local councilor. I think the reason for it was, you know, ‘were people in politics open to bribery’, ‘could foreign governments from Ukraine or China or wherever else it may be, could they be pumping money into the, you know, the accounts of corrupt politicians’.

So I kind of understand that and get that.

But it’s all about interpretation isn’t it – and what the banks argue is that to maintain an account for a politically exposed person gives them increased costs of compliance.

Now I have spoken to the city minister in this country and there is some hope that this EU definition – which came into British law – may be moderated in some way, we’ll will have to see.

But, of course, any bank, any organization, can choose to interpret a ‘PEP’ and whether they want the account in any way they choose.

To my knowledge, I don’t think anybody has been treated like me in the world of politics.

But then the banks you see themselves are part of the big corporate structures in this country – these are the organizations who did not want Brexit to happen and I think in my case probably the corporate world will never ever forgive me because they know if I hadn’t done what I did with the help of thousands of people in our People’s Army that never would have been a referendum let alone a victory.

I’m the one that is to carry the blame.

So that’s the second possible reason why I can’t get a bank account – Prejudice that comes from our institutions.

But I think there’s a third reason.

A few months ago in the House of Commons Sir Chris Bryant, chairman of the Privileges committee, said using parliamentary privilege that I had received large sums of money directly from the Russian government, and he named the calendar year in which it had happened.

Truth is, I didn’t receive a penny from any source with even any link to Russia. And yet because he said it it stands.

I wrote to the speaker, I demanded an apology, nothing has been forthcoming from Sir Chris Brown.

Well I wonder whether that is what’s given me part of the problem.

I have employed a top firm of London lawyers. I’m going through a series of subject access requests to find out what is held on me by the international agencies and by the bank that wants to close me down.

But think about it – without a bank account you effectively become a non-person. You don’t actually exist. It’s like the worst regimes of the mid 20th century – be they in Russia or Germany – you literally become a non-person.

And you don’t anymore – you did in the past – but you don’t anymore actually have a right to be entitled to a bank account.

Now there is a possibility through a fintech company that I could find some means of receiving and paying money – which could be a little bit of a Lifeline. But it’s not a bank account because I won’t be able to earn any interest on positive cash balances, I won’t be able to borrow money if I need to at any point, or take out a mortgage should I so desire – that will be completely denied to me.

I won’t be able to have a debit card linked directly to my account. I won’t really be able to exist and function in a modern 21st century Britain.

So I will tell you more about this on GB news at seven o’clock tonight as to what my decision is but I’m beginning to think that perhaps life in the United Kingdom is now becoming completely unlivable because of the levels of prejudice against me. I’ll give you more of my thoughts at seven o’clock tonight on GB news.

END

GERMANY

The following is very interesting!  Germany certainly owes the money to Poland for the many Polish citizens killed in concentration camps all over Poland.

(Remix) 

Germany’s Ruling SPD Party Ready To Talk WWII Reparations With Poland

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Olivier Bault via Remix News,

Germany’s ruling Social Democrats (SPD) are ready to “solve” the issue of war reparations with Poland, according to Arkadiusz Mularczyk, the Polish deputy foreign affairs minister in charge of the issue of war reparations, who spoke to Remix News’ Olivier Bault during a meeting in Warsaw yesterday.

Mularczyk was informed that in the Olaf Scholz-led coalition government, the SPD at least “understands the problem and wants to solve it in some way in a formula of dialogue with Poland.”

Scholz himself belongs to the SPD, and the German party’s agreement that the issue needs to be addressed could mark a major turning point in the ongoing reparations saga. Poland made headlines in 2022 when it estimated Germany owed Poland up to €1.5 trillion due to material and humanitarian losses during the Second World War; however, Germany has dismissed the claims in the past.

During the interview with Mularczyk, which we will soon publish in full regarding the “Report on the Losses Sustained by Poland as a Result of German Aggression and Occupation During the Second World War” and the accompanying demands from Germany for financial compensation estimated at 6.6 trillion zlotys, which equates to €1.4-1.5 trillion euros, Mularczyk said:

“There was a series of meetings with German MPs, in Warsaw, with MPs of the Polish-German friendship group, but also in Berlin, with a number of German parliamentarians. The largest was a meeting at the German Council on Foreign Relations, DGAP, where there was a group of at least a dozen parliamentarians. Recently, I sent a letter to all members of the Bundestag and Bundesrat on this issue, and you will be the first to know that I’ve just received a thank you from the Coordinator of German-Polish Intersocietal and Cross-Border Cooperation at the Federal Foreign Office in the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Dietmar Nietan, writing on behalf of the SPD, that they understand the problem and want to solve it in some way in a formula of dialogue with Poland and also with me.”

Although it is unclear how far the dialogue will go, Germany has stated in the past that the matter of reparations to Poland is “settled.” However, Poland has pressed the issue, using a variety of diplomatic and political means to force Germany to address Poland’s catastrophic losses during the Second World War.

After Germany signaled it would not pay reparations, Mularczyk stated in 2022:

“Now, Germany has a choice: Either it sits down with Poland at the negotiating table, or we will raise the issue in all international forums — in the UN, in the Council of Europe and in the European Union.”

In December 2022, Mularczyk stated that he had appealed to the secretary general of the Council of Europe for assistance with Poland’s reparations claim for damages incurred by Germany during the Second World War.  At that time, Mularczyk stated that Germany had so far refused to engage in a discussion about compensation.

In the past, Germany has pointed to the 1953 agreement with Poland’s then communist rulers, who relinquished all reparation demands due to pressure from the Soviet Union, which wanted to free East Germany from liabilities.

However, Poland contends that the agreement is invalid because Poland never received fair compensation and because it was made under duress. Additionally, says Mularczyk, there is no official document or bilateral agreement confirming the Polish communist government’s decision to relinquish all reparation demands, nor was such a decision published in the official bulletin of the Polish People’s Republic at that time.

END

FRANCE

Social unrest spreading all over France for the third night in a row

(zerohedge)

‘France Has Fallen’: Dramatic Footage Shows Social Unrest Spreading In Third Night

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 07:45 AM

The police killing of a 17-year-old during a traffic stop on Tuesday has unleashed three consecutive days of social unrest across France. 

Bloomberg reports more than 600 people were arrested Thursday night into Friday, with a majority of them between the ages of 14 and 18. 

France showing heat map of riots

This after the pension riots and fuel riots pic.twitter.com/UQ5lV02NwJ— Kalu Aja (@FinPlanKaluAja1) June 30, 2023

Rioters targeted municipal buildings, town halls, and libraries in various major cities, stores were looted, and all hell broke out nationwide as the government deployed 40,000 police officers yesterday afternoon to quell the violence. About 200 officers were injured overnight in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, where the teen was killed. 

The unrest is so bad that President Emmanuel Macron left an EU summit in Brussels, where he will hold another emergency security meeting Friday, AFP reported, citing his office. 

Video and pictures on social media of the rioting are absolutely shocking. 

France has fallen…

Police are unable to control the migrant and left-wing riots taking place across the country. French media has surrendered and cannot keep track of the number of towns and cities across the country being looted, set on fire, and destroyed.

Islamic attacks,… pic.twitter.com/s0m4CRLjIL— Amy Mek (@AmyMek) June 30, 2023

A large shopping center in the suburbs of Paris is completely destroyed by fire. #FranceRiots pic.twitter.com/75Q78qVj0b— Paul Golding (@GoldingBF) June 30, 2023

#WATCH : A huge fire is raging in an RATP bus depot in Aubervilliers (Paris suburb) #emeutes #Nanterre#FranceRiots #FranceProtests #RiotsFrance #Paris #FranceProtests #franceViolence pic.twitter.com/O8j46ixrin— upuknews (@upuknews1) June 30, 2023

#France is in a Mess#France #Protests #Riots pic.twitter.com/pwG3Vmfs92— Freedom (@MassAdi15176401) June 30, 2023

Protestesters in France burning down the largest public library in the city of Marseille. #Paris #Internationalleaks #France #FranceRiots pic.twitter.com/cNwNsPmS0a— The Notorious HbK (@The5HbK) June 30, 2023

France has some serious demographics problms that seems to increase by the day. This is going to be tough. The future doesn’t look too bright. Paris must learn from Poland. #FranceRiots must be eye opening.

This is Cultural Enrichment in #Macron‘s #Francepic.twitter.com/JPGG6HFdTZ— Mukesh Chaudhary (@MukeshG0dara) June 30, 2023

Burning bus stations, banks, police stations, cranes, and car bombs.

This is Cultural Enrichment in #Macron‘s #France#PARIS #Nanterre #FranceRiots #FranceProtests #RiotsFrance #protest #protests pic.twitter.com/6NtbRRyZzl— MidnightVisions (@MidnightVision5) June 30, 2023

The front entrance of a grocery store in #Nantes, #France has been smashed by a car and is curretly being looted, as Muslim riots enter the 3de night. pic.twitter.com/LXeGS9Fo1z— Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) June 29, 2023

The looting of an Apple store in France.https://t.co/ryUF9UkUAP

pic.twitter.com/kXaJyx8ken— Russian Market (@runews) June 30, 2023

NOW – Looting, violent riots spread to several cities in France. The situation is out of control in parts of the country. pic.twitter.com/ngsGcVVNol— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) June 30, 2023

Muslims in the french city of #Rennes have stolen a forklift from an construction site and are destroying infrastructure, as violent Muslim riots enters its 3de night in #France. pic.twitter.com/u8Vkux91HU— Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) June 29, 2023

If Macron wants to get a grip on the violence, he might have to declare an emergency. Fox News said the president has been close to announcing one but has stopped short. 

“Nothing justifies the violence that’s occurred,” said Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne. 

Borne is correct. Looting stores and burning buildings isn’t a typical response for those grieving over the death of a young man killed by police. France is supposedly a first-world country with a law and judicial system that will ensure justice will be served. 

We must ask critical questions, perhaps some that will trigger mainstream journos, of who exactly is sparking these riots. If it’s organized crime gangs, migrants, or just teenagers. 

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/WAGNER

Pepe Escobar on what will happen next in the Putin/Prighozin affair

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: What Happens In Russia After ‘The Longest Day’?

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

Following Wagner’s ‘rebellion’ – which was nothing more than a blatant coup attempt, and a PR stunt demonstrated by Prighozin’s top-notch theatrics – NATO and the Collective West’s excitement over the possibility of Russia descending into chaos and civil war were quickly turned into utter disappointment.

The first draft of the extraordinary events that took place in Russia on The Longest Day – Saturday, June 24 – leads us to a whole new can of worms.    

The Global Majority badly wants to know what happens next. Let’s examine the key pieces in the chessboard.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is cutting to the chase: he has reminded everyone that the Hegemon’s modus operandi is to back coup attempts whenever it can benefit. This dovetails with the fact that the FSB is actively investigating whether and how Western intel was involved in The Longest Day.

President Putin could not have been more unequivocal: 

“They [the West and Ukraine] wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other, so that soldiers and civilians would die, so that in the end Russia would lose, and our society would break apart and choke on bloody civil strife (…) They rubbed their hands, dreaming of getting revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counter-offensive, but they miscalculated.” 

Cue to the collective West – from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on down – frantically trying to distance itself even as the CIA leaked, via its trademark mouthpiece, the Washington Post, that they knew about “the rebellion.” 

The agenda was painfully obvious: Kiev losing on all fronts would be ritually buried by wall-to-wall coverage of the fake Russian “civil war.”

There’s no smoking gun – yet. But the FSB is following several leads to demonstrate how the “the rebellion” was set up by CIA/NATO. The spectacular failure makes the upcoming NATO July 11 summit in Vilnius even more incandescent. 

The Chinese, much like Lavrov, also cut to the chase: the Global Times asserted that the idea of “Wagner’s revolt weakening Putin’s authority is wishful thinking of the West,” with the Kremlin’s “strong capacity of deterrence” further increasing its authority. That’s exactly the reading of the Russian street.  

The Chinese reached their conclusion after a crucial visit by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrei Rudenko, who promptly flew to Beijing on Sunday, June 25. This is how the iron-clad strategic partnership works in practice.  

“The rebellion” as a P.R. stunt

Arguably the best explanation so far of the nuts and bolts of The Longest Day has been offered by Rostislav Ischenko.

The Global Majority will rejoice that Prighozin’s theatrics, in the end, left the collective West dazed, confused, and shattered: wasn’t the whole thing supposed to unleash total chaos inside Russian society and the army? 

Even as the fake, lightning-quick “mutiny” was in progress, Russia continued to pound Kiev’s forces – which, by the way, were spinning that the main phase of the “counter-offensive” was being launched exactly on June 24 at night. That was, predictably, yet another bluff.    

Back to the Russian street. “The rebellion” – inbuilt in a very convoluted plot – in the end was widely interpreted as just another military demonstration (by master of ceremonies Prighozin, not by the overwhelming majority of Wagner soldiers). “The rebellion” turned out to be a Western P.R. stunt, a series of (ultimately faded) pictures for global consumption.  

But now things are bound to get way more serious. 

Lavrov, once again, pointed to the role being played by the ever-self-aggrandized Le Petit Roi, Emmanuel Macron, right up there with the United States: “Macron clearly saw in the developments an opportunity to realize the threat of Ukraine dealing Russia a strategic blow, a mantra NATO leaders have been holding onto.”

So just like Kiev and the collective Western media, Lavrov added, Macron remains part of a single “machine” working against Moscow. That ties up with Putin, who stated of Macron’s Sunday intervention that “the entire Western military, economic and information machine has been set in motion against us.” 

And that’s a fact. 

Betting on a “long-term economic blockade”

Another fact adds to the more ominous clouds on the horizon.  

While no one was paying attention, a mini-Congress of national security officials took place in Copenhagen exactly on the fateful 24 and 25 of June.

They were arguably discussing “peace in Ukraine.” The chairman was none other than US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.  

Present at the meeting were Brazil, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, Denmark, India, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Africa, Japan, Ukraine – and the proverbial Eurocrat of the non-sovereign EU. 

Note the G7 majority, side by side with three BRICS and two aspiring BRICS+ members.

“Peace in Ukraine” means, in this context, the so-called 10-point “Zelensky peace plan,” which implies a total Russian strategic defeat – complete with the restoration of Ukraine within the borders of 1991 and payment of colossal “reparations” by Moscow.

No wonder China was not part of it. Yet three BRICS – call them the weakest nodes – were there. BRICS and BRICS+ prospective members compose the six “swing states” which will be relentlessly courted and/or submitted to hardcore Hybrid Wars by the Hegemon to “behave” when it comes to Ukraine: Brazil, India, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.  

Then there’s the 11th EU sanctions package, which is taking the economic war against Russia to a whole new level, as attested by Acting Permanent Representative to the EU, Kirill Logvinov.

Logvinov explained how “Brussels intends to drag as many countries as possible into this war (…) There is a clear shift from a failed blitzkrieg, which was said to be aimed at causing irreparable damage to Russia, to a multi-move game with the goal of establishing a kind of long-term economic blockade against our country.”

That’s undiluted Hybrid War territory – and the key targets are the six “swing states.” 

Logvinov remarked how “the EU always prefers to use blackmail and coercion. Since the EU remains the biggest economic partner for many countries, as well as a source of investment and a financial donor, Brussels clearly has enough leverage to exert pressure. So, the EU’s fight against the bypassing of sanctions is expected to be lengthy and uncompromising.”

So welcome to extraterritorial sanctions, EU-style, blacklisting companies from third countries “suspected” of re-exporting banned goods to Russia or engaged in oil trade without taking the so-called Russian oil price cap into account.

Fun in the Belarussian sun 

Among so many cheap thrills, what will be the next role of the main actor in The Longest Day (and even before)? And does it matter? 

Chinese scholars are fond of reminding us that during China’s periods of turmoil – for instance, at the end of the Han and Tang dynasties – the reason was always warlords not following orders from the Emperor.  

The Ottoman Empire’s Janissaries – their Wagner at the time – were meant to protect the Sultan and fight his wars. They ended up deciding who could be Sultan – as much as Roman Empire legionaries ended up deciding who would be Emperor. 

Chinese advice is always prescient: Beware of how you use your soldiers. Make sure they believe in what they’re fighting for. Otherwise, they’ll turn around to bite you.

And that leads us to Prighozin once again changing his story (he’s a specialist on the matter).  

He’s now saying that June 23-24 was just a mere “demonstration” to express his discontent. The main objective was to prove the superiority of Wagner over the Russian Army. 

Well, everybody knew about that: Wagner soldiers have been in combat day in, day out for over 10 years now in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, and Ukraine.

And that’s why he could boast that “Wagner advanced for 700 km without meeting any resistance. If Russia had asked them to be in charge of the war from the beginning, that would have been over by the night of February 24, 2022.”

Prighozin is also alluding to a deal with Belarus – laying extra fog of war around a possible transfer of Wagner under Belarus jurisdiction. NATO is already terrified in advance. Expect more ballooning military budgets – to be imposed at the Vilnius summit next month. 

Camps to accommodate at least 8,000 Wagner fighters are already being built in Belarus, in the Mogilev region – according to “Vyorstka” (“Layout”). 

The real story behind it is that Belarus, for quite a while, has been expecting a possible attack from rabid Poland.

In parallel, as much as sending NATO into extra freakout mode, Moscow could be contemplating the opening of a new front between Lviv and Kiev.  

Wagner in Belarus makes total sense. The Belarussian Army is not exactly strong. Wagner secures Russia’s western front. That will raise major hell on NATO – even figuratively, and force them to spend even more astronomical sums. And Wagner can merrily use airports in Belarus to pursue its – rebranded – activities in West Asia and Africa.  

Everything that happened since The Longest Day is part of a new dramatic plot twist in a running series – way more gripping than whatever Netflix could offer. 

Yet what the majority of Russian public opinion really seems to expect is not another farcical Ride of the Valkyrie. They expect a serious draining of the Soviet-style bureaucratic swamp, and a real commitment to get this “almost war” to its logical conclusion as quickly as possible.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Hal Turner Radio Show – UKRAINE ENGAGING NUCLEAR EVACUATION 16 KM FROM ZAPOROZHYE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

Trust Zelensky to kill more people

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-engaging-nuclear-evacuation-16-km-from-zaporozhye-nuclear-power-plant

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//

This commentary is quite long but well worth reading

(Mearsheimer)

Mearsheimer Warns Of ‘The Darkness Ahead’: Where The Ukraine War Is Headed

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 09:40 PM

Via John Mearsheimer’s Substack,

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mearsheimer-warns-darkness-ahead-where-ukraine-war-headed

end

end

END

GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

This is true: Fentanyl is responsible for80% of overdose deaths 

(zerohedge)

Fentanyl Responsible For 80% Of Overdose Deaths Under 24 In US

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 11:20 PM

Of the 296 million users of illegal drugs worldwide in 2021, 60 million were taking opioids like morphine, codeine or heroin.

As Statista’s Florian Zandt reports, according to the latest United Nations World Drug Report, only cannabis usage is more prevalent albeit, of course, not really resulting in overdose deaths.

As he shows in the chart below, based on CDC data, synthetic opioids like fentanyl have become associated with the majority of overdose mortality.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Out of the more than 106,000 registered cases of deaths by overdose in 2021, a little over 70,000 or two thirds were directly related to synthetic opioids, the most prevalent of which is fentanyl. The drug is said to be 50 times more potent than heroin and is easy and cheap to manufacture since it’s not tied to a crop base like more traditional opioids like heroin.

The picture gets even more dire in the teenage and young adult age bracket. Here, 80 percent of the 7,426 overdose deaths can be ascribed to synthetic opioids, with the connected cases increasing almost sixfold between 2015 and 2021.

Globally, usage of opioids has been relatively stable since 2019, with reported users even going down from 62 million in the year before the coronavirus pandemic. The global prevalence percentage stood at 1.2 for 2021, with only three regions clocking in significantly higher at percentages of 3.3 (North America), 3.2 (Near and Middle East/South-West Asia) and 2.4 (Oceania).

The further development of usage numbers might be impacted by whether the Taliban government in Afghanistan fully enforces its drug ban enacted in 2021. According to a special UN report, opium poppy farmers generated $1.4 billion in sales in 2022 with the current crop being largely exempt from the ban and the handling of future harvests uncertain. Experts now fear that drug users might turn to more readily available synthetic opioids if the supply from the Asian country dries up. Around 80 percent of global opiate users are supplied by products manufactured from the Afghan opium poppy.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//GENERAL

What utter garbage!

(zerohedge)

Climate Alarmists Claim Ground Water Depletion And Melting Ice Caps Are Shifting The Earth’s Axis

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 05:20 PM

If there’s one thing to learn about climate hysteria and how it functions, it’s this:  Climate scientists love to blame every naturally occurring Earth event on man-made global warming, then categorize those events as a crisis.  Centuries ago ancient Aztec priests used mathematical calendars to predict solar eclipses, then frightened the peasants with claims that the sun would be swallowed by the gods forever if people did not offer submission and sacrifice. 

Global warming cultism is very similar, with climate scientists heavily funded by governments and globalist institutions offering their own tall tale of doom should the public refuse to comply with draconian carbon emissions controls, all based on events that have nothing to do with human interference.  

Well, they’re at it again with another bizarre claim that the human population is consuming too much ground water, and along with global warming melting the polar ice caps, this is causing the Earth’s axis to shift.  The theory is based on a study by South Korean scientists with the support of the Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion (KIMST).  The group is at least partially funded by NASA and KIMST is directly tied to the the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and Marine S&T International R&D Programme.

In other words, the study’s funding is dependent on findings that support the UN’s carbon policy goals (it is likely biased).  The conclusions of the paper are based on correlation, not proof of causation, concerning the depletion of ground water in certain regions along with a shift in the Earth’s axis from 1993-2010. 

In reality, numerous scientific studies show that the Earth naturally “shifts” its axis every 40,000 years.  Then there are the Milankovitch cycles, which describe how relatively slight changes in Earth’s movement every 26,000 years affect the planet’s climate.    

At the peak of the axis tilt more extreme climate changes can result.  The last seven ice ages, for instance, took place at the end of a natural shift in the Earth’s axis, causing longer periods of cold.  The Earth does not have a perfect orbit, nor a constant tilt, nor does it behave in a readily predictable manner at all times.

Even NASA has admitted in the past (before all Earth science was hijacked by climate cultism) that this ancient process leads to extreme weather.  Generally, the wobble of the axis takes thousands of years to play out, though there is evidence to suggest it has changed quickly during massive earthquakes, tectonic clashes and even the eruption of volcanoes.  There’s zero evidence that the Earth’s axis is currently shifting any faster today than it normally would every 40,000 years.  There is zero concrete evidence that human beings can cause the axis to move.   

In the past decade climate science groups have attempted to put the cart before the horse, arguing that it is humanity that is creating the climate events which are then causing the Earth to wobble.  Data of Earth’s climate previous to human industry suggest the opposite.  There is no extraordinary axis shift happening today, nor is there any evidence that the warming of the Earth over the past century is significant or dangerous compared to the eons of warming events that happened long before people walked the planet. 

Real scientists do not enter into an experiment or study with a preconceived outcome (unless they are paid to).  They begin with a theory and then test the parameters of that theory to see if it holds water (no pun intended).  In this case (like most other cases of climate environmental doom mongering) the natural processes of the Earth and the solar system are being rebranded as man-made calamities for the purpose of frightening the public into embracing greater centralization of power.         

END

Global economy:

Shipping containers are having very weak rates as more new ships arrive on the scene. Also historical leases done at higher rates still has a few years to run.

(Miller/Freightwaves)

Container Shipping Trilemma: Weak Rates, New Ships, Pricey Charters

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 06:30 AM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

Container lines are facing a triple whammy: Freight rates are weak — below breakeven in some trades — and show no signs of rising. New ships are flooding the market. And vessel leases that container lines booked at historically high rates during the boom have yet to expire. Some leases run through 2024 or 2025.

What levers can ocean carriers pull to stop the bleeding?

They do not seem to be able to raise freight rates. Demand is too low and carriers are not canceling enough sailings. They want the new ships being delivered (whether they’re owned or leased) because they benefit bottom lines via much higher fuel efficiency. Aristides Pittas, CEO of ship lessor Euroseas, said during the recent Marine Money Week conference that his company’s newbuildings “burn 40% less fuel oil than similar ships built 10 years ago.”

That leaves the long-term leases of older ships. Losses on these contracts can be mitigated.

Reports: Zim seeking early charter terminations

Israel-based Zim is the poster child of this trilemma. It’s highly exposed to falling freight rates, particularly in the Asia-U.S. East Coast market. It has a hefty orderbook of newbuildings and those ships have already begun hitting the water. And it is simultaneously highly exposed to charter costs — more so than any other ocean carrier, with over 90% of its fleet chartered versus owned.

Zim is now seeking to reduce its legacy charter liabilities, according to multiple reports.

“Zim has sought the termination of several chartered ships,” said Linerlytica. Tradewinds, citing brokers, said the carrier “is looking to terminate or even to sublet some charters of traditional Panamax container ships.” Alphaliner wrote: “Rumor has it that Zim is making some tonnage available through sublets or earlier-than-expected redeliveries.”

Without naming the carrier or carriers involved, ship brokerage Braemar said that “surplus tonnage is now being marketed, with some vessels becoming available earlier than previous charter commitments would have projected.”  

FreightWaves made multiple requests for comment on these reports to Zim’s media and investor relations teams, which did not respond.

Freight rates falling back again

There was a brief period of optimism on spot freight rates in the second half of April and a perception that they had finally bottomed. Then rates started falling again.

Since the week ending May 4, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) global spot composite has fallen 15%, to just $1,494 per forty-foot equivalent unit in the week ending Thursday. Since June 8, the WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles spot index has declined 21% to $1,581 per FEU. The WCI Shanghai-New York spot index has fallen 16% over the same period, to $2,508 per FEU.

The Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) global spot composite declined 7% between June 6 and Thursday, to $1,288 per FEU.

The FBX China-West Coast assessment dropped 17% over the same period to $1,190 per FEU, while the FBX China-East Coast spot assessment fell 9%, to $2,226 per FEU.Average spot rates in USD per FEU. Blue line: China-West Coast. Green line: China-East Coast. Orange line: global composite. (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

The trend is likewise negative for contract rates, which are more important to liner revenues than spot rates. Xeneta’s global index measuring contract rates fell 9.4% in June versus May and is down 51.7% year to date. The XSI subindex for U.S. import contract rates fell 11% in June versus May.

“One is left wondering where it will all end,” said Xeneta CEO Patrik Berglund.

Jefferies slashes earnings outlook on Zim

“Liners have limited pricing power and spot rates remain very weak across most routes,” said Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta in a report released Tuesday, in which he slashed his earnings outlook for Zim.

Nokta previously forecast that Zim would post a net loss of $183.7 million for this year and $87.3 million for next year. On Tuesday, his 2023-2024 loss expectations for Zim ballooned by 150%. He now projects a net loss for Zim of $353.7 million this year and $324.7 million next year. Furthermore, he introduced his outlook for 2025, forecasting a further net loss of $150.8 million for the shipping line.

Investors made massive returns on their Zim shares as the COVID-era consumer boom hit new heights, but timing was everything. The stock peaked in mid-March 2022. Since then, it has plunged 87%.

Zim’s shares sank to $11.78 per share at one point on Tuesday, just pennies above the all-time low reached on the first day of trading after the IPO in late January 2021.  “D” refers to dividend payouts. (Chart: Yahoo Finance)

Like all larger ocean carriers, Zim is far from in distress and still has plenty of cash amassed during the boom: $3.5 billion as of the end of the first quarter, pro forma of the dividend payout in April.

However, it’s burning through that cushion. It would make sense to proactively limit losses from high-price legacy charters as freight rates remain below breakeven and Zim’s newbuidlings enter service. 

Nokta estimated that Zim’s current quarterly cash burn is $250 million, or $1 billion per year on an annualized basis. That is “obviously not ideal, but Zim has plenty of liquidity and runway to ride out the current extreme softness in the spot market,” he maintained.

END

VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

mRNA technology based COVID gene injection (Pfizer, Moderna) induced myocarditis after the 3rd booster dose? Idiosyncratic? Serendipidity? Are we facing a real concern for those taking the boosters?

Mengesha reports on a case in Israel of a histologically confirmed severe myocarditis following the third dose of Pfizer BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 29

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SOURCE:

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/4/575

‘Vaccination with mRNA vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with a risk of developing myocarditis and pericarditis, with an estimated standardized incidence ratio of myocarditis being 5.34 (95% CI, 4.48 to 6.40) as compared to the expected incidence based on historical data according to a large national study in Israel. Most cases of myocarditis in vaccine recipients occur in young males, particularly following the second dose…Herein, we report the first case of a histologically confirmed severe myocarditis following the third dose of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine.’

end

Malari outbreak..due to lack of immunity

CDC (The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)) is issuing this Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory about malario spread (risk) in Florida and Texas; keep your ears open on this…

often CDC issues garbage just pure junk unscientific drivel but something like this, take the reporting serious just to inform you for your decision making…take precautions. I live this in islands

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 30

SHARE

Florida Issues Statewide Emergency Malaria Alert

Jack Phillips, Breaking News Reporter

Jun 29 2023

end

Devastating aggressive (TURBO) cancer, B-cell lymphoblastic malignant lymphoma, after Pfizer mRNA technology based gene injection vaccine (Malone, Kariko, Weissman) in a mouse model, n=14 mice (note,

only 8 mice were used for FDA to grant EUA approval for the fraud failed BIVALENT (Wuhan and BA4/BA5 sub-variants) booster where the mice got sick;

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 30

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‘case of B-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma following intravenous high-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer BNT162b2) in a BALB/c mouse. Two days following booster vaccination (i.e., 16 days after prime), at only 14 weeks of age, our animal suffered spontaneous death with marked organomegaly and diffuse malignant infiltration of multiple extranodal organs (heart, lung, liver, kidney, spleen) by lymphoid neoplasm.’

‘Immunohistochemical examination revealed organ sections positive for CD19, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase, and c-MYC, compatible with a B-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma immunophenotype. Our murine case adds to previous clinical reports on malignant lymphoma development following novel mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.’

URGENT: Each death after taking COVID mRNA vaccine MUST be investigated as a homicide! if shot is linked to death, then charge all involved criminally! Students were threatened to take it, mandated

in Canada, US etc.; no student should have been forced with suspension threats! those dying suddenly have one common thread in them, it is the ‘vaccine’ & they were forced to take it! Makis on fire!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 29

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Each of these deaths should be forensically investigated as a homicide, and if it is determined that COVID-19 vaccines were a contributing factor in the deaths, all those University and College leaders who implemented COVID-19 vaccine mandates should be criminally prosecuted and sentenced to long prison terms.

No student should ever have been forced into taking experimental pharmaceutical interventions, while under threats of suspension from their program.

end

Powerful Cleveland Clinic study (Shrestha) shows how badly the immune system is damaged by the mRNA technology based gene injection; over 50,000 healthcare workers in the Cleveland Clinic; no prior

infection yet up to date boosting etc. (vaxx series) has higher cummulative incidence of COVID than being not prior infected and not up to date (no boosting, no full series)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 30

SHARE

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.09.23290893v1.full

Evidence of dose response:

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Covid Shots Killed 13 Million Globally, Top Expert WarnsA leading expert is speaking out to warn the public after studying data on the staggering number of people killed by mRNA shots.READ MORE

King Charles Warns Only 6 Years Remain to Stop ‘Global Warming’ Destroying HumanityBritain’s King Charles III has activated a “climate clock” which counts down the 6 years that allegedly remain to supposedly save the planet from being destroyed by “global warming.”READ MORE

Clarence Thomas Shames Al Sharpton, Rebukes Ketanji Brown Jackson in Opinion on Affirmative ActionClarence Thomas has shamed Al Sharpton and issued a sharp rebuke of fellow Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in his opinion on affirmative action.READ MORE

Supreme Court Deals Huge Blow to Democrats, Rules Affirmative Action UnconstitutionalThe Supreme Court dealt a massive blow to the Democrats by ruling that affirmative action admission policies of Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which gave weight to a would-be student’s race, are unconstitutional.READ MORE

Bud Light to Permanently Lose Nearly 25% of Its Business, Industry Analysts WarnBud Light is looking at a permanent loss of nearly 25% of its business after the disastrous marketing stunt with Dylan Mulvaney.READ MORE

Woman Loses Leg after Getting It Trapped in Airport’s Moving WalkwayA woman lost her leg when it became stuck in a moving walkway at a Bangkok airport Thursday.READ MORE

CNN Anchor Kaitlan Collins Grills Pete Buttigieg About Joe Biden’s ‘Slip-Ups”CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins grilled Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg about President Joe Biden confusing the Ukraine war with the Iraq war twice in as many days. COLLINS: Yes, it’s been quite some time since there was someone permanent in that position. Secretary, on another matter, twice this week, President Biden has referred to the war in Ukraine as the …READ MORE

Reporter Calls Hunter’s Secret Foreign Business Phone – Joe Biden AnswersRenowned reporter John Solomon called a secret burner phone that was being paid for by Hunter Biden’s business and was stunned when the President of the United States answered.READ MORE

New York to Charge Drivers to Enter Lower Manhattan in 2024New York City will soon begin charging drivers to enter Manhattan to “help reduce congestion” and “improve air quality.”READ MORE

Teen Mob Swarms Chicago Streets, Terrorizes Residents, Vandalizes CarsA violent teen mob when on a rampage in Chicago, swarming the streets and terrorizing residents.READ MORE

Kayleigh McEnany’s Not Buying Biden’s Loud Denial: ‘Thou Doth Protest Too Much’Fox News hosts Kayleigh McEnany and Raymond Arroyo are not buying Democrat President Joe Biden’s denials regarding his son Hunter’s business.READ MORE

Madonna Found ‘Unresponsive,’ Hospitalized with ‘Serious Bacterial Infection’Madonna has been hospitalized due to a “serious” infection after reportedly being found “unresponsive” in New York.READ MORE

ESPN Snubs Real-Life Hero Peyton Hillis, Gives Arthur Ashe Award for Courage to ‘Woke’ USWNT InsteadESPN is snubbing real-life hero Peyton Hillis, the former NFL running back who has been hospitalized for months after he saved multiple kids from drowning in a rip current in Florida.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

WEF: Other Nations Must Adopt China’s ‘Remarkable Control Measures’ READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

The unregulated body parts industry is booming Read more…Madonna intubated in ICU after being found unresponsive in NYC Read more…Amtrak train with 198 passengers derails after hitting truck on tracks in Southern California Read more…Chris Christie Refuses To Support Trump If He Wins GOP Nomination Read more…Far-Left Activists Converge On Philadelphia To Disrupt Moms For Liberty Summit Read more…NYC Man Who Stabbed Ex-Con After He Was Attacked Will Not Be Charged Read more…Giuliani Interviewed by Jack Smith’s Prosecutors in Trump Jan 6 Case in DC Read more…John Solomon Called Joe Biden’s Secret Global Phone… and Guess Who Picked Up Read more…

VACCINE IMPACT//

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY//OTHER EXEC RABOBANK

Back To The Drawing Board

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 11:40 AM

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

As we are about to approach the end of this trading week it sometimes leads us to reflect on all that has happened; especially when a lot has happened, like this week.

Clearly, we started the week with news about a coup attempt in Russia. Where would we have been, had this attempt been successful? Was it even a coup attempt or was it really about Gerasimov and Shoigu, as Prigozhin claims it was? And how would a successful attempt have affected the war in Ukraine? All interesting counterfactuals for historians, but for now we can only conclude that Putin’s position might not be as solid (anymore) as many thought it was. Therefore there is still more than enough reasons for Putin to worry and to maybe get back to the drawing board regarding the course that he chose since the 24th of February 2022.

We had to wait until Thursday for real macro-economic news but the monetary news from this week was exciting enough. It seemingly took markets quite some time to properly assess the monetary impact of what has been said during Europe’s Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Initially we saw a sharp rise in interest rates along the whole curve, this was quickly followed by declining rates at the end of Wednesday’s trading session. But it was yesterday at 14:00CET after it turned out that inflation in Germany was rising again that rates started their ascend. Interestingly enough it were the longer maturities that saw the sharpest rise in yields. Clearly markets were busy positioning themselves for the inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US that will come out today.

But there was more than higher-than-expected inflation in Germany that resulted in significantly higher rates yesterday. Data from the US, which also came out yesterday, showed that annualized quarterly growth over the first quarter of this year turned out to be 2% QoQ instead of the 1.4% QoQ reported earlier. And, maybe even more important, personal consumption came out at 4.2% instead of the earlier estimate of 3.8%. In other words, demand was much stronger than anticipated and this means more work for the Fed since apparently the restrictive area that we are supposed to be in is not so restrictive after all. While European yields rose between 6 and 8 basis points, the 2-year yield on US bonds jumped no less than 16 basis points.

For those who were hoping for lower rates, yesterday’s jobless claims must have been yet another disappointment. The benefit applications fell the most since October last year and that week (ending on the 24th of June) even included the Juneteenth holiday. While we have to wait until Friday next week to get a better picture of the US labour market it still doesn’t seem that the labour market is cooling off in earnest. For now, expectations that the Fed could hike more than previously anticipated resulted in a strong dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower and below a level of 1,09.

Meanwhile China is dealing with its own challenges that are wildly different from the challenges that the West is facing. While both China and the West have to deal with a slump in the manufacturing sector, China does not have an inflation battle to fight. At least not yet. China’s economy is struggling because local governments, the real estate sector and households have too much debt. China seeks to transform its economy from an export based model to a model of dual circulation that also relies on domestic consumption.

However, given the circumstances outlined above, the latter will prove to be everything but easy. Currently, consumers are mainly busy with deleveraging. This is reflected in higher savings ratios and early mortgage repayments that hit a 5 year high according to Fitch Bohua. While it is a necessary step for households to deleverage, it does put a lot of pressure on the expected interest rate returns of China’s banking sector.  Moreover, today’s PMI’s coming from China shows a continuous cooling of the manufacturing sector and a lower than expected value for the services sector (53.2 vs 53.5 expected) in June which also came out lower than the survey for the previous month.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0856 DOWN  0.0011

USA/ YEN 144.71  DOWN 0.082  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2645  UP    0.0033

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3270 UP .0018 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.68 PTS OR 0.62% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 17.93 PTS OR 0.09%  

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.07%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL  GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 17.93 PTS OR 0.09% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.99 PTS OR 0.22%  

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.16% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 45.10 PTS OR 0.14% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1905.25

silver:$22.42

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.07 UP 6  BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s close.

FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.109%  DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.394 % UP 1 AND  0//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.384 DOWN 2  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4,065 DOWN 2  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3935  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0916 UP  0.0049 or  49  basis points 

USA/Japan: 144.59 DOWN 0.197 OR YEN UP 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2714 UP   0.01005 OR 100  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP  .0014 OR 6 BASIS pts  to 1.3237

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (DOWN) …7.2535

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2717)

TURKISH LIRA:  26.07 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.394…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at  3.817% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.861 DOWN 5   in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 59.84  points or  0.80%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 201.18 PTS OR 1.26%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 87.33 PTS OR 1.19%

Spain IBEX UP 82.40PTS OR  0.87%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 308.39PTS OR 1.08%

WTI Oil price 70.45    12: EST

Brent Oil:  75.69   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  89.46 ROUBLE  DOWN 1 AND   90//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3935  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.425 UP 5  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0913 UP 0.0046   OR 46 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2695 UP   .0082 or  82 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.430% UP 1 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.28 DOWN 0.510 //YEN UP 51 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3240  DOWN .0011 CDN dollar, UP 11  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.02

Brent OIL:  75.35

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.814% 

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6  BASIS PTS to 3.848% 

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 0  PTS AT 4.877%  

USA dollar index: 102.56 DOWN 45  BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.03 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  89.55  DOWN 1   AND  98/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 285.18 PTS OR 0.24% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 239.26 PTS OR 1.68%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.33 DOWN 0.21 PTS (1.55)%

GLD: $178.27 UP 1.18 OR 0.67%

SLV/ $20.89 UP .17 OR 0.82%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Nasdaq Soars To Best H1 In 40 Years; Yield Curve Crashes To ‘Most Inverted’ Ever

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM

The last month has seen a massive divergence between macro data reported in US and Europe (the latter collapsing as the former accelerates). The Global Macro surprise index, however, fell back into negative territory…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, Q2 saw the biggest collapse in Europe’s macro data on record…

Source: Bloomberg

The gap between US and European macro is dramatic, but we note this has tended not to be a ‘decoupling’ but a lead-lag series (so either US is about to serially disappoint, or Europe is set to soar versus expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

Just one thing though – while the macro surprise index is ‘relative to expectations’, the Leading Economic Indicators signal has been contracting for a year and screaming recession…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid those macro moves, rate-change expectations are shockingly close to unchanged on the year – despite the massive dovish shift after the SVB collapse (and on the May FOMC 25bps hike). Since then the hawks are back in control, pricing in no rate-cuts to year-end…

Source: Bloomberg

However, none of that macro malarkey matters to the equity markets where Nasdaq (led by the magnificent seven… or just AAPL) surged in H1. The Dow was H1’s laggard, up a mere 3.9%…

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq Composite rose around 31% in the first half of 2023 – its biggest H1 gain since 1983 (outpaced only by the even more concentrated Nasdaq 100 which rose 37% – its best H1 ever). Last year was the second worst H1 in history and this year is the 3rd best ever for the composite…

The median US stock rose 6% in H1 (based on the ValueLine Geometric Index)…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq 100 has been green in July for 15 consecutive years with an avg return of +4.64%…

Source: Bloomberg

The first 15 days of July have been the best two-week trading period of the year since 1928. Since 1928, July 3rd has the highest hit rate for the S&P of positive returns (72.41%), followed July 1st (72.06%)

Tech and Discretionary stocks outperformed dramatically in H1 while Energy and Utilities tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

H1 2023 saw the biggest outperformance of Growth over Value since H1 2020, completely decoupling from the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave equity-land, we would be remiss to not note the fact that Apple is once again a $3 trillion market cap company… to the f**king moon , Alice!!

Source: Bloomberg

But there is one thing…

Source: Bloomberg

Equities decoupled from the credit market in Q2…

Source: Bloomberg

Valuations are getting stretched…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasuries are very mixed in H1 with the short-end monkey-hammered over 40bps higher in yield while the 30Y yield is down over 10bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve crashed lower in Q2, flattening to its most inverted quarterly close ever

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the month lower, and quarter flat, and down modestly year-to-date. Bloomberg’s Dollar Index has basically traded sideways in a small range since Q4’s big drop…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied to its best H1 since 2019, up over 80% to $31,000; with Ethereum up over 60%…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities are down for the 4th quarter of the last 5…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil fell for the 2nd quarter in a row while gold managed gains in H1. NatGas was clubbed like a baby seal in H1…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has fallen for the last two months, after tagging near record highs over $2000 (and was down 2.5% in Q1), but for now is holding above $1900

Source: Bloomberg

The bulk of Nattie’s decline was early in the year and in fact it has been rising recently – though for context, well off post-Putin highs…

Source: Bloomberg

We also note that the EU-US arb is back within its long-run historical range as European NG collapsed even more than US NG in H1…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, H1 2023 rings a very loud bell with H2 2021 for tech…

Source: Bloomberg

What happens next with the AI-boom?

Perhaps the oldest adage on Wall Street is not to fight the Fed, but as Warren Buffett is fond of saying, “What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.”

b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING/

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END

i c Morning/

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II) USA DATA/

UMich Inflation Expectations Crash In June; Democrats Lead Sentiment Rebound

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 10:09 AM

The final print for UMich sentiment’s findings on inflation expectations were unchanged from the flash print with 1Yr outlook at 3.3% – the lowest since March 2021 – and 5-10Y inflation exp eased down to 3.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

However, we do note that these expectations remained elevated relative to the 2.2 – 2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Also good news is that the uncertainty around the inflation outlook has fallen as consumers seem more confident that The Fed has things under control…

The headline sentiment print rose further intra-month to 64.4 from 63.09 flash

Source: Bloomberg

Buying Conditions improved modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

As UMich reports, the year-ahead economic outlook soared 28% over last month, and long-run expectations rose 11% as well.

Democrats are leading the resurgence in confidence…

Overall, this striking upswing reflects a recovery in attitudes generated by the early-month resolution of the debt ceiling crisis, along with more positive feelings over softening inflation.

end

Fed’s favourite inflation signal remains high

(zerohedge)

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains ‘Stuck’ As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 08:42 AM

One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – rose 4.6% YoY (slightly cooler than the 4.7% exp but still ‘stuck’ at very high levels). Headline PCE fell back below 4.00% (3.8%) for the first time since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Even more focused, is the Fed’s view on Services inflation ex-Shelter, and the PCE-equivalent shows that is very much stuck at high levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Personal Income and Spending were both expected to rise on a MoM basis and did but while incomes rose more than expected, spending rose less (+0.4% vs +0.3% exp and +0.1% vs +0.2% exp respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

YoY Spending growth slowed while YoY Income growth was flat in May

Source: Bloomberg

Adjusted for inflation, ‘real’ personal spending was unmchanged in May (up 2.1% YoY)…

Source: Bloomberg

More problematically, wage growth is re-accelerating…

• Private worker wages rise 5.8% Y/Y, highest since Oct 2022
• Govt worker wages rise 5.5%, highest since May 2022

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

How on earth could the banks pass their stress tests if Fed emergency bank bailout facility usage hits new record highs.

At the retail end of things, market fund inflows continue as rates are much higher than the banks are willing to give

(zerohedge)

Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High; Retail Money-Market Fund Inflows Continue

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 04:42 PM

After last week’s surprise and sizable outflows from institutional money-markets (likely driven by corporate tax demands), expectations were for a return to inflows but for the 3rd straight week, money market funds saw outflows (albeit a small $2.9 billion)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, we note that once again retail saw a 10th straight week of inflows (+5.8 billion) while institutional funds saw $8.7 billion of outflows (3rd straight week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this corporate tax payments or chasing AI stocks?

There remains a significant decoupling between bank deposits and money market funds…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s balance sheet finally retraced all of the increase from the SVB bailout, shrinking for the 3rd straight week (-$21.1 billion)…

Source: Bloomberg

As far as QT is concerned, The Fed sold a decent $7.9 billion of its securities last week to its smallest since Aug 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

The US central bank has over $106 billion of loans outstanding to financial institutions through its two backstop lending facilities…

Source: Bloomberg

As banks’ usage of The Fed’s emergency Bank Term Funding Program rising once again to a new record at $103.1 billion (up $0.8 billion from last week), while discount window usage was unchanged at $3.2 billion…

The breakdown from The Fed’s H.4.1 table…

• QT: MBS drop by $15BN to $2.538TN
• Discount Window: unchanged at $3.2BN
• BTFP: up $0.3BN to $1.03.1BN, new record
• Other credit extensions (FDIC loans): down $4BN to $168.3BN

The US equity market is starting to catch down to the contraction of bank reserves at The Fed…

Finally, after all the big banks passed the stress test with flying colors, we remind readers that banks have 9 months left under the original 12-month BTFP Fed bailout program to find a way to stabilize their balance sheets.

Not only have they failed to do so, usage of the BTFP facility is at a new all time high, and yields are rising even more (great MTM losses).

end

As expected the Supreme Court strikes down student loan relief

(zerohedge)

Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Loan Relief — Here’s Who’s Most Affected

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 10:40 AM

In a largely anticipated decision, the Supreme Court on Friday ruled that the Biden administration exceeded its authority with its $400 billion student loan forgiveness plan.

The Supreme Court ruled on Department of Education v. Brown, in which two student loan borrowers who don’t qualify for relief sued to vacate the program on the basis that Biden’s invocation of the post-9/11 HEROES Act constitutes executive overreach.

Who will be most affected?

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing a Wells Fargo report, typical student loan payments will be between $210 and $314 per month once payments resume.

Overall, more than 40 million borrowers would have qualified for loan forgiveness through a required application. Before legal challenges halted the plan, borrowers in every state were approved for loan cancellation. Big states such as California, Texas, Florida and New York had the most approvals overall. The District of Columbia had the most approvals in proportion to its adult population, followed by Georgia and Ohio.

According to the Department of Education, over 43 million people collectively owe $1.6 trillion in student-loan debt. These loans include Direct Loans, Federal Family Education Loans and Perkins Loans. Around half of these borrowers owe less than $20,000.

When broken down by age, borrowers 24 and younger owe $103.4 billion in federal student-loan debt. Less than 4% owe over $40,000. The largest cohort of borrowers is those aged 25-34, of which nearly a quarter owe more than $40,000. Of those aged 35-49, more than 1/3 owe more than $40,000.

By race, around 30% of black households had student-loan debt in 2019, vs. around 20% of white households and 14% of hispanic households.

By household net worth, of those who are in the bottom 25%, more than 1/3 hold student debt, vs. 6% of those in the top 10%, per the Federal Reserve.

As noted last week at Real Clear Education, the administration’s plan to transfer up to $20,000 in student loan debt per borrower – from individuals who voluntarily took out loans to finance their college education to unsuspecting taxpayers – was one of the most audacious examples of executive overreach in American history.

Despite its $400 billion price tag, the action is only a small piece of the administration’s strategy to create a massive new public subsidy for higher education. A cynic might wonder whether the headline-grabbing but legally dubious bailout now before the Court was conceived as a decoy to distract public attention from the real centerpiece of the debt-transfer agenda.

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Analysts Contemplate A Bankruptcy For The Nation’s Third Largest LTL Truckload Carrier

(Madden/FrieghtWaves)

FRIDAY, JUN 30, 2023 – 10:15 AM

By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves,

With questions swirling around the fate of the nation’s third-largest less-than-truckload carrier, Yellow Corp., industry analysts have started looking at which carriers stand to benefit the most if the company fails.

Seemingly running out of options, Yellow filed a $137 million lawsuit against the Teamsters union on Tuesday. The suit alleges the union is unjustifiably blocking proposed operational changes that the carrier is contractually allowed to implement. Yellow asserts the union’s slow response and unwillingness to negotiate have added to the company’s deteriorating financial condition.

Yellow recently asked health and welfare and pension funds if it could delay contribution payments for the months of July and August in order to preserve its cash, which it says will be depleted by mid-July. Also, the lawsuit revealed Yellow unsuccessfully solicited the White House’s help brokering a deal.

“YELL’s situation creates huge benefits for the remaining, stronger LTL players that are able to profitably handle the extra volumes,” Deutsche Bank equity research analyst Amit Mehrotra told clients on Wednesday.

He said the negative press has likely resulted in more freight leaving the company.

A recent intraquarter report from Yellow showed its tonnage was down 16% year over year in April and May and 33% lower than in the same two months of 2021. Some of the declines can be attributed to recent yield improvement initiatives and the dislocation caused by a multiyear restructuring, which has allowed it to consolidate its four LTL brands and reduce its terminal footprint.

However, Mehrotra notes, customers are also seeking other transportation options given Yellow’s inability to reach a deal with the Teamsters.

“Based on all the developments over the last two weeks, we continue to think it’s more likely than not that a meaningful piece of Yellow’s business is diverted away to competitors

He also pointed to a final report issued Tuesday from the congressional oversight commission tasked with overseeing the 2020 COVID-relief lending program. The report noted numerous mistakes made by government agencies during the approval process of a $700 million Treasury loan to Yellow. It also advised the Treasury to unwind its debt and equity holdings in the company.

“These developments make it highly unlikely, in our view, for a last-minute deal via outside intervention,” Mehrotra said.  

Yellow has narrowly averted bankruptcy in the past by orchestrating wages and benefits concessions from Teamsters as well as eleventh-hour debt restructurings. With the unfavorable loan commission report and the Biden administration’s recent pass on lending a hand, it doesn’t appear the government is interested in a bailout.

TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl said union carriers like ABF Freight, an ArcBest subsidiary, and TForce Freight, a TFI International company, would likely be the biggest winners of Yellow’s $5.2 billion slice of the LTL industry.

He said these carriers are more compatible with the way Yellow operates and could hit the upper end of the earnings-per-share growth ranges he calculated. The high end of the EPS range was 32% for ArcBest and 14% for TFI. XPO had an EPS growth range of 9% to 35% but presumably with a lower confidence level assigned.

He doesn’t see Old Dominion as a big beneficiary due to its “strict pricing discipline and freight profile.” He also noted some “strong private carriers” would likely see incremental volumes if Yellow were to fail.

Seidl said he wasn’t predicting Yellow’s demise or its survival, just providing some math in case the carrier exits.

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special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;

The great Dr Michael Hudson…

of the Hudson Institute

America has Just Destroyed a Great Empire

By Michael  Thursday, June 29, 2023 Articles  Russia, Washington Consensus  Permalink

Herodotus (History, Book 1.53) tells the story of Croesus, king of Lydia c. 585-546 BC in what is now Western Turkey and the Ionian shore of the Mediterranean. Croesus conquered Ephesus, Miletus and neighboring Greek-speaking realms, obtaining tribute and booty that made him one of the richest rulers of his time. But these victories and wealth led to arrogance and hubris. Croesus turned his eyes eastward, ambitious to conquer Persia, ruled by Cyrus the Great. 

Having endowed the region’s cosmopolitan Temple of Delphi with substantial silver and gold, Croesus asked its Oracle whether he would be successful in the conquest that he had planned. The Pythia priestess answered: “If you go to war against Persia, you will destroy a great empire.” 

Croesus therefore set out to attack Persia c. 547 BC. Marching eastward, he attacked Persia’s vassal-state Phrygia. Cyrus mounted a Special Military Operation to drive Croesus back, defeating Croesus’s army, capturing him and taking the opportunity to seize Lydia’s gold to introduce his own Persian gold coinage. So Croesus did indeed destroy a great empire, but it was his own. 

Fast-forward to today’s drive by the Biden administration to extend American military power against Russia and, behind it, China. The president asked for advice from today’s analogue to antiquity’s Delphi oracle: the CIA and its allied think tanks. Instead of warning against hubris, they encouraged the neocon dream that attacking Russia and China would consolidate U.S. control of the world economy, achieving the End of History. 

Having organized a coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014, the United States sent its NATO proxy army eastward, giving weapons to Ukraine to fight an ethnic war against its Russian-speaking population and turn Russia’s Crimean naval base into a NATO fortress. This Croesus-level ambition aimed at drawing Russia into combat and depleting its ability to defend itself, wrecking its economy in the process and destroying its ability to provide military support to China and other countries targeted for seeking self-dependency as an alternative to U.S. hegemony.

After eight years of provocation, a new military attack on Russian-speaking Ukrainians was conspicuously prepared, ready to drive toward the Russian border in February 2022. Russia protected its fellow Russian-speakers from further ethnic violence by mounting its own Special Military Operation. The United States and its NATO allies immediately seized Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves held in Europe and North America, and demanded that all countries impose sanctions against importing Russian energy and grain, hoping that this would crash the ruble’s exchange rate. The Delphic State Department expected that this would cause Russian consumers to revolt and overthrow Vladimir Putin’s government, enabling U.S. maneuvering to install a client oligarchy like the one it had nurtured in the 1990s under President Yeltsin.

A byproduct of this confrontation with Russia has been to lock in America’s control over its Western European satellites. The aim of this intra-NATO jockeying was to foreclose Europe’s dream of profiting from closer trade and investment relations with Russia by exchanging its industrial manufactures for Russian raw materials. The United States derailed that prospect by blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, cutting off Germany and other countries from access to low-priced Russian gas. That left Europe’s leading economy dependent on higher-cost U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). 

In addition to having to subsidize domestic European gas to prevent widespread insolvency, a large proportion of German Leopard tanks, U.S. Patriot missiles and other NATO “wonder weapons” are being destroyed in combat against the Russian army. It has become clear that the U.S. strategy is not simply to “fight to the last Ukrainian,” but to fight to the last tank, missile and other weapon being deleted from NATO stocks. 

This depletion of NATO’s arms was expected to create a vast replacement market to enrich America’s military-industrial complex. Its NATO customers are being told to increase their military spending to 3 or even 4 percent of GDP. But the weak performance of U.S. and German arms on the Ukrainian battlefield may have crashed this dream, while Europe’s economies are sinking into depression. And with Germany’s industrial economy deranged by the severing of its trade with Russia, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told the Die Welt newspaper on June 16, 2023 that his country cannot afford to pay more money into the European Union budget, to which it has long been the largest contributor. 

Without German exports supporting the euro’s exchange rate, the currency will come under pressure against the dollar as Europe buys LNG and NATO replenishes its depleted weaponry stocks by buying new arms from America. A lower exchange rate will squeeze the purchasing power of European labor, while lowering social spending to pay for rearmament and provide gas subsidies is plunging the continent into a depression. 

A nationalist reaction against U.S. dominance is rising throughout European politics, and instead of America locking in its control over European policy, the United States may end up losing – not only in Europe but most crucially throughout the Global South. Instead of turning Russia’s “ruble to rubble” as President Biden promised, Russia’s balance of trade has soared and its gold supply has increased. So have the gold holdings of other countries whose governments are now aiming to de-dollarize their economies.

It is American diplomacy that is driving Eurasia and the Global South out of the U.S. orbit. America’s hubristic drive for unipolar world dominance could only have been dismantled so rapidly from within. The Biden-Blinken-Nuland administration has done what neither Vladimir Putin nor Chinese President Xi could have hoped to achieve in so short a period. Neither was prepared to throw down the gauntlet and create an alternative to the U.S.-centered world order. But U.S. sanctions against Russia, Iran, Venezuela and China have had the effect of protective tariff barriers to force self-sufficiency in what EU diplomat Josep Borrell calls the world “jungle” outside of the US/NATO “garden.” 

Although the Global South and other countries have been complaining about U.S. dominance ever since the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned Nations in 1955, they have lacked a critical mass to create a viable alternative. But their attention has now been focused by the U.S. confiscation of Russia’s official dollar reserves in NATO countries. That dispelled the thought of the dollar as a safe vehicle in which to hold international savings. The Bank of England’s earlier seizure of Venezuela’s gold reserves kept in London – promising to donate them to whatever unelected opponents of its socialist regime U.S. diplomats designate – shows how sterling and the euro as well as the dollar have been weaponized. And by the way, what ever happened to Libya’s gold reserves? 

American diplomats avoid thinking about this scenario. They rely to the one unique advantage the United States has to offer. It may refrain from bombing them, from staging a color revolution to “Pinochet” them by the National Endowment for Democracy, or install a new “Yeltsin” giving the economy away to a client oligarchy. 

But refraining from such behavior is all that America can offer. It has de-industrialized its own economy, and its idea of foreign investment is to carve out monopoly-rent seeking opportunities by concentrating technological monopolies and control of oil and grain trade in U.S. hands, as if this is economic efficiency, not rent-seeking.

What has occurred is a change in consciousness. We are seeing the Global Majority trying to create an independent and peacefully negotiated choice as to just what kind of an international order they want. Their aim is not merely to create alternatives to the use of dollars, but an entire new set of institutional alternatives to the IMF and World Bank, the SWIFT bank clearing system, the International Criminal Court and the entire array of institutions that U.S. diplomats have hijacked from the United Nations.

The upshot will be civilizational in scope. We are seeing not the End of History but a fresh alternative to U.S.-centered neoliberal finance capitalism and its junk economics of privatization, class war against labor. The idea that money and credit should be privatized in the hands of a narrow financial class instead of being a public utility to finance economic needs and rising living standards is finally facing its reckoning.

The irony is that America’s historical role has been that although it itself was not able to lead the world forward along these lines, its attempts to lock the world into an antithetical imperial system by conquering Russia on the plains of Ukraine and trying to isolate China’s technology (from breaking the U.S. attempt at IT monopoly) have been the great catalysts pushing the global majority away from them.

end

USA// COVID

This ought to be good!

(Morgan/EpochTimes)

“Try Again”: Sens Hawley, Braun Demand Biden Admin Turn Over More COVID Origins Info After Evasive Response

THURSDAY, JUN 29, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Mark Braun (R-Ind.) are demanding that President Joe Biden’s administration provide more details about the origins of COVID-19 after releasing a 10-page report describing potential links between the origins of the virus and work at a Chinese virology laboratory in 2019.Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) speaks during a Senate Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight on Capitol Hill in Washington on Aug. 3, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

In March, Congress passed, and Biden signed a law known as the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 that required the Biden administration to release “any and all information” relating to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in Wuhan, China, and the origin of COVID-19. The law set a June 18 deadline to declassify and “make available to the public as much information as possible.”

Hawley and Braun sent a reminder letter to Biden on June 14, but his administration still missed the June 18 deadline to declassify and publicly release the COVID-19 origins documents. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) instead published a 10-page document (pdf) five days late on the evening of June 23.

The 10-page document included a one-page coversheet, a one-page table of contents, and a three-page appendix of terms used throughout the report. The five remaining pages of the report stated that the WIV worked “with several viruses, including coronaviruses, but no known viruses that could plausibly be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2.”

The report also described how several WIV researchers fell ill in the fall of 2019 and said these researchers possessed some symptoms consistent with COVID-19 and some symptoms considered “not consistent” with COVID-19.

“The COVID-19 Origin Act calls for a full declassification, not Cliffs Notes to cover for [Dr. Anthony Fauci] and protect China,” Braun wrote in a Monday press statement.

“The report released today by the DNI is totally insufficient. The bill Senator Hawley and I passed was to ‘declassify *any and all* information relating to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the origin of COVID-19’ including several specific requests related to researchers’ names and their activities at the Wuhan lab. Our bill was passed unanimously by a Democrat Senate and a Republican House and signed by President Biden.

“This 9 page DNI report is 5 pages of titles and dictionary definitions, with only 4 pages of actual information, most of which is vague or already reported. The report contains no actual documents. The American people deserve the facts, not more half truths and politics,” Braun added.Security personnel stand outside the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on Feb. 3, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Failed to Comply’

Braun and Hawley reiterated their disappointment in a letter to Avril Haines, who is Biden’s director of national intelligence.

“[The COVID-19 Origins Act] required the Director of National Intelligence to ‘declassify any and all information’ relating to links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the origin of COVID-19,” the senators wrote in a letter they first shared with Fox News.

“You failed to comply with both requirements. The deadline was June 18, 2023. Well past the statutory deadline, your office published a declassified report after business hours on June 23.”

Braun and Hawley concluded that ODNI “obviously” has more information about the origins of COVID-19 and the WIV than the five-page summary would suggest. They also accused the Biden administration of showing deference toward China.

“You—and the rest of the Administration—appear to be refusing to provide information about China’s role in and responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic in order to avoid upsetting Beijing,” they wrote.

“We invite you to try again,” the senators added. “Within 7 business days, provide to Congress documentation that fully complies with the letter of the law to disclose ‘any and all information’ related to the origins of COVID-19 and a lab leak with minimal redactions.”

NTD News reached out to ODNI and the Biden White House for comment about Braun and Hawley’s letter, but neither office responded by the time this article was published.

Growing GOP Backlash to ODNI Report

House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and House Coronavirus Subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) called the June 23 ODNI report “a promising step toward full transparency.”

Following the release of the report, Turner and Wenstrup also concluded that “the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army have some serious explaining to do” regarding the research that had occurred at the WIV.

Other Republicans were less impressed by the ODNI’s efforts.

“This Friday night ‘news’ dump of a mere 10-page summary is a slap in the face of Americans who deserve full transparency about what information the government possesses regarding the origins of COVID-19,” said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, said that the ODNI should have released details on the WIV researchers who fell ill in the Autumn of 2019. In fact, the COVID-19 Origin Act asks for the names of WIV researchers who fell ill in 2019, their symptoms, and their specific involvement in coronavirus-related work at the WIV.

“This DNI release does none of that and, in many ways, obscures more than it illuminates,” Gallagher said.

end

SWAMP STORIES

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report June 30, 2023 Issue 7023

Independent View of the News

Stronger than expected US Q1 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims sent bonds to the netherworld on Thursday.  All those bullish bond managers that confused a 40-year Grand Super Cycle Bond Bull Market with brains were chagrined as bond and note yields approached the March highs.   US Q1 GDP was revised to 2% from 1.3% (1.4% expected) on a dubious jump from 3.8% to 4.2% in Personal Consumption and a questionable 7.8% increase in exports (5.2% prior).  Net Trade boosted Q1 GDP by .58 percentage points!  Is Team Biden cooking the books for 2024?  Probably, but this makes the Fed’s forecasting look even worse than usual.  The GDP Price Index was reduced to 4.1% from the prior and expected 4.2%.  Core PCE was reduced to 4.9% from the prior and expected 5%.  https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/gdp1q23_3rd.pdf   On Wednesday, CNBC’s Sara Eisen chided Powell for talking hawkish and NOT hiking rates in June.  Jerome responded with some patented Fed and academic Jabberwocky.  He looks more foolish now.   Initial Jobless Claims fell to 239k from 265k, which was also expected.  Continuing Claims fell to 1.742m from 1.761; 1.765m was consensus.  The big gain in California Initial Jobless claims from the prior week was more than erased by a 10.1k drop.  Texas -9.2k, PA -3.3k, CT +6K, NJ +5.2K, Ohio +2.4k   ESUs and US stocks rallied partially on US banks unanimously passing the Fed’s Stress Test.  (How often have you seen a bank fail this test?)  But the major factors in the equity rally were Q2 performance gaming and defensive asset allocators unwinding their recessionary positions.  The doomsters had to sell bonds and buy stocks or ESUs to cover their losing positions.   ESUs traded moderately higher when Asia opened.  They progressively declined until they hit a bottom at 3:37 ET.  ESUs and stocks then staged a robust rally that persisted until ESUs spiked higher two minutes before the official release of the US GDP Report at 8:30 ET.   ESUs then plunged on the strong GDP as Fed rate hike expectations jumped higher.  Fed fund futures shifted the first Fed rate cut from January 2024 to May 2024 – in one day.  Of course, ESUs hit a bottom one minute after the 9:30 ET NYSE opening.  ESUs and stocks then gyrated wildly until ESUs and stocks staged the rally into the European close.  ESUs and stocks hit daily highs at 12:43 ET.   After a 19.75-point retreat, ESUs commenced the afternoon rally at 14:07 ET.  ESUs and stocks inexorably plodded high into the close.  All hail the manipulation to game Q2 performance!   Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on Q2 performance gaming and the unwinding of long bonds/short equities   Negative aspects of previous session Bond and note yields are breaking out to the upside.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session What impact will Q2 rebalancing have of the markets later his week?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4388.97 Previous session High/Low: 4398.39; 4371.97   Navy Recruiters Will Work 6-Day Weeks, Face Changes to Orders amid Recruiting Struggle https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/06/28/navy-recruiters-will-work-6-day-weeks-face-changes-orders-amid-recruiting-struggle.html   Artificial sugar replacement aspartame, found in thousands of ‘diet’ replacements – like Diet Coke, Extra chewing gum and even toothpaste – to be declared ‘possibly carcinogenic to humans’ https://t.co/9VZLAfwanu   ‘SNL’ Legend Dana Carvey hits Dr. Fauci with stinging impression: ‘I’m introducing the daily COVID shot’ https://t.co/xhYvB48pWN   Top NIH Official Advised Covid Scientists That He Uses Personal Email to Evade FOIA David M. Morens, a high-ranking official at the NIH, told prominent scientists discussing Covid’s origins that he would delete emails…“just send to any of my addresses, and I will delete anything I don’t want to see in the New York Times.”…  https://theintercept.com/2023/06/29/covid-nih-personal-email-foia/   New York to Charge Drivers to Enter Lower Manhattan in 2024 (Dems are destroying on purpose) New York City will soon begin charging drivers to enter Manhattan to “help reduce congestion” and “improve air quality.”  https://t.co/UD9pQkjb3Y   Fed Balance Sheet: -$21.146B with MBS -$15.212B  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20230629/   Today is a summer Friday and the last day of Q2.  Plus, with the 4th of July on Tuesday, beaucoup traders and money managers will disappear until Wednesday or later.  Today is a crapshoot.  Pattern traders want to play for the Friday rally.  Professional traders, hedge funds, and money managers want to manipulate stuff higher to embellish Q2 performance.  However, institutional money managers need to sell stocks and buy bonds to balance their portfolios for the end of Q2.  It’s anyone’s guess as to what forces prevail.   ESUs are -2.00 at 20:37 ET.  Apple hit a $3T valuation in after-hour trading on Q2 performance gaming.   Expected economic data: May Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Spending 0.2%, PCE Deflator 0.1%, PCE Core Deflator 0.3%; June Chicago PMI 43.9; June UM Sentiment 63.9, Current Conditions 68, Expectations 61.2, 1-Year Inflation 3.3%   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4220; 100-day MA: 4127; 150-day MA: 4070; 200-day MA: 4000 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,614; 100-day MA: 33,358; 150-day MA: 33,461; 200-day MA: 32,898 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4155.73 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4322.91 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4372.50 triggers a sell signal   CBS: Hunter Biden’s former business partner was willing to go before a grand jury. He never got the chance… Weiss’ decision not to bring Bobulinski is the latest indication that prosecutors investigating Hunter Biden may have avoided investigating allegations about his father, President Joe Biden… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-former-business-partner-grand-jury/   Pressure grows on judge to reject Hunter Biden plea deal amid evidence of DOJ interference If I were the judge on the Hunter Biden case, I would refuse to accept the plea bargain,” famed constitutional lawyer Alan Dershowitz said. https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/pressure-grows-judge-reject-hunter-biden-plea-deal-face-evidence   Biden warns top aides against offering him political advice on Hunter The president’s message, as one source described it, was: “Hands off my family.”    President Joe Biden has made it clear to his closest aides in no uncertain terms that he not only will reject any political advice that he try to limit his son Hunter’s public visibility but that he also doesn’t want to hear such suggestions… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-warns-aides-offering-political-advice-hunter-rcna91711   Comer says overseas payments to Biden family could exceed $40M: ‘This was organized crime’ https://t.co/EHmJmvKiL0   GOP demands Treasury hand over reports involving Burisma, alleged Biden bribery The alleged scheme involved a Burisma executive hiring now-first son Hunter Biden to the board of Burisma to secure access to his father, then-Vice President Biden. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/gop-demands-treasury-hand-over-reports-involving-burisma-alleged-biden-bribery   @bennyjohnson: IRS Whistleblower Gary Shapley says D.C. U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves would not allow Hunter Biden to be charged in his district. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1674195704191787013     @ColumbiaBugle: The very same Matthew Graves who has been hell-bent on destroying the lives of Trump Supporters and the January 6th Political Prisoners.   @CBS_Herridge: @JudiciaryGOP @GOPoversight  Ways and Means ask 11 FBI/DOJ officials including US Attorney David Weiss and AUSA Lesley Wolf for transcribed interviews to investigate allegations slow walking, preferential treatment Hunter Biden probe. Deadline July 13 https://t.co/TXDXIYGFce   GOP @SenRonJohnson: John Solomon is a true investigative journalist. He exposed Fauci’s medical experimentation using foster children and has uncovered more deep state corruption than anyone I know of.  Keep digging, John!   Biden wanders off set as Nicolle Wallace wraps softball MSNBC interview https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-wanders-set-nicolle-wallace-wraps-softball-msnbc-interview   @RNCResearch: Biden claims he “was teaching at the University of Pennsylvania and I had a significant budget to hire a lot of people for the Biden Democracy Fund.” Biden was paid $1 million, but never taught a single class. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1674517029049516032   Biden admits he’s ‘not big on abortion,’ says terminations in ‘last 3 months have to be negotiated’ https://t.co/wegJyJ4q6p   Biden undercut the majority of Dems’ abortion up to death position.   @NBCNews: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says he would seek to abolish the departments of education, commerce and energy, as well as the IRS. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/desantis-says-eliminate-four-federal-agencies-elected-president-rcna91733   @RonDeSantis: Why have our federal leaders stood idly by while American children and adults have been told by the woke mob that we must accept that men can get pregnant?  Join us to restore sanity.   Christie calls Trump ‘cheap SOB’ for using campaign funds on lawyers: ‘Swindling the working man’ https://t.co/1zLBAwS8UB   CTU Told Lawmakers What to Do over 1,360 Times in Just 6 Legislative Sessions The Chicago Teachers Union pours money into political campaigns, but that isn’t all. It also pressures lawmakers to abide by its legislative agenda. It’s a one-two political punch: helping elect lawmakers and then telling them what to do… https://www.illinoispolicy.org/ctu-told-lawmakers-what-to-do-over-1360-times-in-just-6-legislative-sessions/   Critics: Illinois graduation rates don’t show full picture Dabrowski points to how the state recently celebrated its highest graduation rates in more than a decade at a time when proficiency and SAT scores are among high school students are both on the decline and chronic absenteeism has ballooned into an even bigger problem.    According to Illinois Policy Institute, in 2021 just one out of every three 11th grade students was reading at grade level and only 29% could perform math proficiently. Yet of that class, 87.3% of students graduated in 2022, the same year the state hit its highest graduation rate since 2012… https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/article_91708408-1422-11ee-9b8e-f3cc020f6a8a.amp.html   @seanmdav: By a vote of 6-3, the Supreme Court just ruled that university admissions programs that use affirmative action and other race-based admissions criteria are unconstitutional and violate the 14th Amendment. Roberts wrote the opinion. https://supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf   @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Devastated As Supreme Court Bans Racism https://buff.ly/442H7Bv   @RAMansour: Justice Thomas’ concurring opinion is worth reading in full, especially his rebuttal to Justice Brown’s systemic racism argument. He writes: “Even in the segregated South where I grew up, individuals were not the sum of their skin color.” https://t.co/BnRxBYSv3C   Obamas say affirmative action allowed them to ‘prove we belonged’ in college (But Obama won’t release his college records!) https://t.co/7WLgDFOa2h   @TheBabylonBee: Awkward: Supreme Court Rules against Affirmative Action with Affirmative Action Hire Sitting Right There https://t.co/ooao4eqVyc   @business: Harvard University said that diversity and difference are essential to academic excellence after the Supreme Court effectively banned colleges from using race as a factor in admissions.   Harvard asserts that diversity and difference are essential to academic excellence, why doesn’t Harvard have more conservative professors?  Remember, this case was based on Asians being grossly discriminated against in admissions. https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1674421758554931207/photo/1   The Harvard Crimson: The Case for Increasing Undergraduate Enrollment For decades, the size of Harvard’s student body hasn’t budged…The issue of Harvard’s enrollment size came up briefly in 2018, when Joshua S. Goodman, a former assistant professor of public policy at the Kennedy School, suggested expanding the student bodies at elite schools amid the ongoing admissions lawsuit against the University, in order to “lower everyone’s blood pressure when it comes to admissions.” Yet apart from such rare mentions, Harvard’s enrollment gets very little attention. Well, it should… https://www.thecrimson.com/column/a-new-day-at-harvard/article/2021/2/12/berger-increase-undergrad-enrollment/   Biden condemned the SCOTUS and its ruling, which is a threat to democracy by his and Dems’ standards: “We cannot let this decision be the last word.”   @CBSNews: “Is this a rogue court?” a reporter asks President Biden after he delivered remarks on the Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action in college admissions. Biden: “This is not a normal court.“ https://t.co/euLwGstMEQ   @AlanDersh: “This was a great day for the Constitution, a great day for the legacy of Martin Luther King… judged not by the color of skin but by content of character…” https://twitter.com/NEWSMAX/status/1674557105037008898   @greg_price11: Wisconsin State Senator LaTonya Johnson says “f&*% the suburbs” on the senate floor during a debate on crime spilling from cities to suburbs https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1674436523977064452   Homelessness Skyrockets in Los Angeles; Over 75,000 on Streets in L.A. County https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/29/disaster-homelessness-skyrockets-in-los-angeles-over-75000-on-streets-in-l-a-county/   UK Brexit leader @Nigel_Farage: The establishment is trying to force me out of the UK by closing my bank accounts.  I have been given no explanation or recourse as to why this is happening to me.  This is serious political persecution at the very highest level of our system.  If they can do it to me, they can do it to you too.   A new study shows that the effect that volcanism has on our climate is four times greater than previously estimated. https://t.co/POIbAC3G84   @historyinmemes: Miss America, 1924, Ruth Malcomson clinched the title at the age of 18 after emerging victorious in the Miss Philadelphia competition in 1923. During that era, the beauty pageant was known as “The Atlantic City Pageant,” and the winner was bestowed with the title of “The Golden Mermaid.” Following her triumph, Malcomson shared her ten principles of beauty: 1. Wake up early. 2. Enjoy a wholesome breakfast. 3. Engage in regular exercise. 4. Avoid alcohol consumption. 5. Recognize the harmful effects of smoking. 6. Spend time outdoors. 7. Opt for a light lunch. 8. Savor a satisfying dinner. 9. Retire to bed early. 10. Prioritize sufficient sleep.     A poster from 1930 even depicted a doctor in a white coat endorsing Lucky Strike cigarettes, claiming that “20,679 physicians say Luckies are less irritating.”… (But ‘the science’, the ‘settled science!’) https://twitter.com/historyinmemes/status/1674418759011024906

GREG HUNTER  

Fake Trump Recording, Bidenomics Tanking, Smoke Poison

Fake Trump Recording, Bidenomics Tanking, Smoke Poison

By Greg Hunter On June 30, 2023 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups5 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (WNW 588 6.30.23)

Could the Trump phone call being leaked to CNN be an AI fake?  Some say yes, and today’s AI technology would make it easy to do.  Remember all the evil Deep State made up on Trump and the so-called Russian collusion?  There was the fake “Dossier,” fraudulent spy warrants and FBI and DOJ lying at every turn.  Pulling off an AI fake audio recording of Trump admitting guilt is outrageous and should be investigated thoroughly.  I want to see and hear the original recording playing on the original recording device that was used.  I think they are just making it all up—again. 

They have a new name for Biden’s dismal economy, and that is “Bidenomics.”  Does the Biden Administration think the economy is going so well it needs the name of the cheated-in President?  According to a recent NBC poll, 74% of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction, and only 20% think it’s going the right way.  Remember, this is NBC of the Lying Legacy Media, and that’s the best they can make this look?  It’s looking dismal, and people think the economy is getting worse, not better.  Meanwhile, Fed Head Jay Powell says he is raising rates again and again by the end of the year.  That should help the economy.

The fires that are burning over a large part of Eastern Canada and the Northeast have spread to the Midwest.  Severe toxic smoke is causing breathing problems in Chicago and elsewhere.  Some are saying the smoke is not just wood smoke, other dangerous chemicals are in it.  Are people trying to poison us at every turn?  How can these fires start all at once if someone or some group is not coordinating setting these fires?

There is much more in the 54-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 6.30.23.

https://usawatchdog.com/fake-trump-recording-bidenomics-tanking-smoke-poison/()

After the Wrap-Up: 

I will see you on MONDAY