by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $9.90 TO $1909.95
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.50 AT $22.69
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1916.45
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.14
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Bitcoin morning price:, $31,193 UP 693 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,500 DOWN 485 dollars
Platinum price closing $907.00 DOWN $14.55
Palladium price; $1245.40 DOWN $17.70
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,553.00 UP 8.20 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1499.71 DOWN 9.08 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1754,32 DOWN 11.48 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,919.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/05/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/07/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 90
323 C HSBC 320
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 22
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 97
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 75
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14
661 C JP MORGAN 64
690 C ABN AMRO 14
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 30 27
905 C ADM 27
TOTAL: 391 391
MONTH TO DATE: 1,760
JPMorgan stopped 64/391 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 391 NOTICES FOR 39,100 OZ or 1.2162 TONNES
total notices so far: 1760 contracts for 176,000 oz (5.474 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 96 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 480,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3337 for 16,685,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLIONOZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 466.474 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY AN HUGE SIZED 2965 CONTRACTS TO 117,386, MOVING ABOVE THE NEW RECORD LOW SET ON FRIDAY AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.30 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GOOD SIZED 510 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 510 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,210 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 477 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 325,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.//NEW STANDING: 17.830 MILLION OZ/ // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (510 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –444 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 581 contracts: OR 2.905 MILLION OZ (291 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 0.520 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 2.905 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2965 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 477 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 325,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP: TOTAL NOW STANDING 17.830 MILLION OZ///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3442 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD 510//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (510) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 96 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 480,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4591 CONTRACTS TO 452,654 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED –1852 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4591 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.20 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2301 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 6.5069 TONNES// + /A HUGE ISSUANCE OF 1707 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $2.20 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5709 OI CONTRACTS (23.517 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1118 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 452,654
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5709 CONTRACTS WITH 4591 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1118 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5709 CONTRACTS OR 17.76 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 1707 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1118 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4591) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5709 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2301 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 6.5069 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1707 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2233 CONTRACTS OR 223,300 OZ OR 6.94556 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1115 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 6.94556 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 6.94556/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.1831% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 6.94556 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2965 CONTRACTS OI TO 117,386 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 477 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 50 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 477 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2965 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 477 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3442 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 17.210 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.30 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.37 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 577.33 PTS OR 3.02% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 565.68 OR 1.70% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.18 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2332 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2439 /Oil UP TO 72.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.77 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4591 CONTRACTS UP TO 452,654 DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.20 ON TUESDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1118 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1118 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1118 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5709 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1118 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4591 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.20//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 1707 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (6.5059) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 6.5069 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $2.20) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5709 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION . THE TAS ISSUED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 17.76 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2301 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 6.5069 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.20.
WE HAD –REMOVED 1852 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5709 CONTRACTS OR 570900 OZ OR 17.76 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 233,343 FAIR
final gold volumes/yesterday 262,852 FAIR
//JULY 6/ FOR THE JULY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 96.453 OZ Brinks 3 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 32,013.521 oz Brinks |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 391 notice(s) 39,100 OZ 1.2162 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 332 contracts 33200 oz 1.0326 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1760 notices 176,000 OZ 5.474 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0ne dealer deposit:
i)Into Brinks: 32,013.521 oz
Customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
total dealer deposits: 32,013.521 oz Brinks
we had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Out of Brinks 96.453 oz
total withdrawals: 96.453 oz
Adjustments; 1 JPMorgan dealer to customer
1) 6,462.351 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 723 contracts having LOST 583 contracts. We had 657 contracts served on Wednesday. Thus we gained 74 contracts or an additional 7400 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 577 contracts DOWN to 350,695 contracts
SEPT gained 32 contracts to stand at 93
We had 391 contracts filed for today representing 39,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 391 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 64 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1760 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (723 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 391 x 100 oz per contract equals 209,200 OZ OR 6.5069 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1760) x 100 oz + (723) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (391) x 100 oz) which equals 209,200 oz standing OR 6.5069 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 6.5069 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,063,541.609 OZ 64.18 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,426,482.155 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,833,589.245 (368.07 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,592,892.910 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,770,048 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 303.88 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 6//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 506,849.300 oz LOOMIS . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,200,601.270 oz Brinks cnt |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 96 CONTRACT(S) (480,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 229 contracts (1,145,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3337 Contracts (16,685,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: nil oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks: 1,200,601.270 oz
total customer deposits: 1,200,601.270 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 140.580 million oz/279.029 million =50.53% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of lOOMIS: 506,849.359 OZ
total withdrawals: 506,849.359 oz
adjustments: 1
BRINKS/DEALER TO CUSTOMER:
607,874.500 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.996 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.335 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 325 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 276 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 341 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 65 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 325,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY.
AUGUST GAINED 29 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 491
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 2871 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 102,649
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 96 for 430,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 61,739 GOOD /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday:84,631 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3337 x 5,000 oz = 16,685,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(325) and the number of notices served upon today 96 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 3337 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (325) – number of notices served upon today (96 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 17.830 million oz +
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 917.86 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 550,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN $.13 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 266,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.015 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//
MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 466.474 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Many central banks increased their gold holdings in May. Turkey sold 63 tons but that sale was to local buyers as Turkey has a huge gold consuming nation
(Schiff.gold)
Eight Central Banks Increased Gold Holdings In May
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Excluding another big sale by Turkey, central banks were net buyers of gold in May, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.
Eight central banks added gold to their reserves in May with net purchases totaling 50 tons.
But with Turkey dumping another 63 tons of gold in May, global net central bank gold holding fell by 27 tons.
Turkey has sold nearly 160 tons of gold since March. According to the World Gold Council, this is a response to local market dynamics and doesn’t likely reflect a change in the Turkish central bank’s long-term gold strategy.
According to the WGC, “Gold was sold into Turkey’s domestic market to satisfy very strong bar, coin and jewelry demand following a temporary partial ban on gold bullion imports.”
According to a Reuters report, the Turkish government suspended some gold imports in February in an effort to soften the economic impact of significant earthquakes.
Poland was the biggest buyer in May, adding 19 tons of gold to its reserves. This follows on the heels of a 15-ton increase in April when the National Bank of Poland resumed buying gold. May’s purchase was the largest increase in the country’s reserves since June 2019 when the bank boosted gold holdings by almost 100 tons.
In the fall of 2021, Bank of Poland President Adam Glapiński said the central bank planned to add 100 tons of gold to its reserves in 2022. It’s unclear why the bank didn’t follow through. This recent purchase could signal the beginning of another round of buying to reach that 100-ton goal.
Poland currently holds 263 tons of gold.
The People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying spree for a seventh-straight month with a 16-ton addition to its official reserves.
Since recommencing reports of purchases in November 2022, the Peoples Bank of China has added 144 tons to its official gold holdings. Officially, Chinese gold holdings stand at 2,092 tons.
The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent until it resumed reporting in November 2022. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.
There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Last year, there were large unreported increases in central bank gold holdings. Central banks that often fail to report purchases include China and Russia. Many analysts believe China is the mystery buyer stockpiling gold to minimize exposure to the dollar.
The central banks of Singapore (4 tons), Russia (3 tons), India (2 tons), the Czech Republic (2 tons), Iraq (2 tons), and the Kyrgyz Republic (2 tons) were the other notable buyers.
A statement by the Iraqi central bank said, “The purchase came with the aim of increasing its holdings of gold in light of the economic and political conditions that the world is witnessing.”
Along with Turkey, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the National Bank of Kazakhstan were both sellers, reducing their holdings by 11 tons and 2 tons respectively. These two banks were the biggest sellers of gold during the first quarter of this year. It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.
Despite the dip in overall global reserves in April and May due to Turkish selling, it doesn’t appear central banks have lost their appetite for gold. After a record-setting 2022, central banks continued to buy gold in the first quarter of 2023, setting a new Q1 record.
Overall, global central bank gold reserves increased by 228 tons through the first three months of 2023. This was 38% higher than the previous first-quarter record set in 2013.
Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.
According to the 2023 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey recently released by the World Gold Council, 24% of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months. Seventy-one percent of central banks surveyed believe the overall level of global reserves will increase in the next 12 months. That was a 10-point increase over last year.
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
Jim Rickards….
Rickards: Globalist Elites Fear You
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 05:00 PM
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Globalist elites like to talk about democracy. But in reality, they don’t believe in democracy.
When the U.K. voted for Brexit in June 2016, the globalists were stunned.
They couldn’t believe it. They then did everything they could to delay and fight Brexit.
Then when Donald Trump won the election as president in November 2016, the globalists were even more stunned.
They went into complete denial and put their heads in the sand.
They comforted themselves with the convenient myth that Russian interference lost them the election, not a popular rejection of their ideology.
Yet it kept getting worse for globalists. Both China and Russia have become more nationalistic and completely turned their backs on globalism. The war in Ukraine has only intensified that trend.
The pandemic only strengthened the trend away from globalism, and the ongoing supply chain issues we’ve been seeing expose globalism’s fragile underbelly.
These chains may be efficient and economical, but when they break down, it has a rippling effect on the global economy. It’s like pulling on one strand on a carpet. The entire thing is affected.
“Tariffs Are as American as Apple Pie”
Globalists worship at the altar of free trade. But free trade is a myth. It doesn’t exist outside classrooms. France subsidizes agriculture. The U.S. subsidizes electric vehicles. China subsidizes a long list of national champions with government contracts, cheap loans and currency manipulation.
Every major economy subsidizes one or more sectors using fiscal and monetary tools and tariffs and nontariff barriers to trade.
America grew rich and powerful from 1787–1962, a period of 175 years, using tariffs, subsidies and other barriers to trade to nurture domestic industry and protect high-paying manufacturing jobs.
In fact, tariffs are as American as apple pie.
Beginning in 1962, the U.S. turned its back on a successful legacy of protecting its jobs and industry and embraced the free trade theory. This was done first through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, one of the original Bretton Woods institutions in addition to the World Bank and IMF.
Against the mercantilist system was a theory of free trade based on comparative advantage as advocated by British economist David Ricardo in the early 19th century. Ricardo’s theory said that trading nations are endowed with attributes that gave them a relative advantage in producing certain goods versus others.
These attributes could consist of natural resources, climate, population, river systems, education, ports, financial capacity or any other factor of production. Nations should produce those goods as to which they have a natural advantage and trade with other nations for goods where the advantage was not so great.
Countries should specialize in what they do best, and let others also specialize in what they do best. Then countries could simply trade the goods they make for the goods made by others. All sides would be better off because prices would be lower as a result of specialization in those goods where you have a natural advantage.
Works in Theory, Not in Fact
It’s a nice theory often summed up in the idea that Tom Brady should not mow his own lawn because it makes more sense to pay a landscaper while he practices football.
For example, if the U.K. had an advantage in textile production and Portugal had an advantage in wine production, then the U.K. and Portugal should trade wool for wine. But if the theory of comparative advantage were true, Japan would still be exporting tuna fish instead of cars, computers, TVs, steel and much more.
The problem with the theory of comparative advantage is that the factors of production are not permanent and they are not immobile.
If labor moves from the countryside to the city in China, then suddenly China has a comparative advantage in cheap labor. If finance capital moves from New York banks to direct foreign investment in Chinese factories, then China has the comparative advantage in capital also.
Before long, China has the advantage in labor and capital and is running huge trade surpluses with the U.S., putting Americans out of work and shutting down U.S. factories in the process.
Worse yet, countries such as China can pull comparative advantage out of thin air with government subsidies.
We’ve been living in a world where the U.S. has been a free trade sucker and everyone else breaks the rules. In a world where a few parties are free traders but most are mercantilists, the mercantilists win every time. They are like parasites sucking the free traders dry.
Globalization at All Costs
But to globalists, the moral arc of the universe bends in one direction, and that’s toward increasing globalization. Populism and protectionism are therefore moral evils that must be condemned.
But globalists have slowly realized that the nationalist trend is not an anomaly but a powerful force that is reversing globalist policies that have been ascendant since 1989, or even since the end of World War II, when institutions like the IMF and World Bank were established to promote globalist goals.
But right now, free trade is on the ropes, currency wars are rampant, there’s an actual war in Eastern Europe and geopolitical hotspots like Taiwan are becoming more dangerous.
What happened to globalism?
The globalist-in-chief is Columbia University academic Jeffrey D. Sachs. He led the charge for “market” solutions in Russia in the 1990s, which backfired into a takeover by oligarchs and the rise of Putin.
He also led the charge for “opening” China in the early 2000s, which led to the rise of Xi Jinping and the strongest form of Communism since the death of Mao Zedong.
Is Sachs willing to admit any mistakes? No. Like most globalists who are too arrogant to question their own worldviews and assumptions, Sachs instead says the problem is democracy itself.
Essentially, Sachs wants to abandon traditional voting in the U.S. and U.K. to create a system more favorable to globalists. Sure, you can let voters choose center-right candidate x or center-left candidate y, who might be 10% apart on many issues. Neither of them will really rock the boat and have no fundamental disagreement with globalism in general.
Globalists Don’t Trust You
As far as globalists are concerned, voters cannot be trusted to vote on fundamental issues like Brexit. They also can’t be trusted to vote against presidential candidates like Trump. Such decisions should be beyond democratic control, globalists believe.
In fact, Time magazine ran an article gloating about how corporate and media elites essentially conspired to prevent Trump from winning the 2020 election.
Media refusal to cover the Hunter Biden laptop scandal was just one example. Former intelligence officials joined in by claiming it bore all the trademarks of “Russian disinformation.” Of course, we all know the laptop was real. But they wouldn’t allow it to influence the election.
Meanwhile, recent disclosures by Twitter revealed the extent to which the company worked with the federal government to censor viewpoints they didn’t like.
The bottom line is, when elites don’t like the potential outcome, just change the rules.
The Climate Change Trojan Horse
Another issue that unites globalists is climate change. Globalists argue that climate change is too important to trust to voters in individual countries. Climate change is the perfect cover for globalism because combating it requires an internationally coordinated policy run by elites.
Their real agenda is to define a “global problem” so they can advance “global solutions” such as world governance, world taxation and world rule by elites. It doesn’t matter that the actual science behind hysterical climate alarmism is extremely weak.
Unfortunately, the media, corporations, governments and international organizations are run mostly by globalists.
And many of them are working hard to silence dissent. We’re in a Brave New World.
end
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS
A HUGE STORY
Large Banks Have Bled $921 Billion in Deposits Since April 2022 — the Fastest Pace in 40 Years — and a Much Larger Decline than Small Banks
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 6, 2023
You may recall reading a burst of headlines during the banking crisis in March of this year about depositors fleeing small banks for the perceived comfort of the largest banks. Unfortunately, those headlines were never put in context or updated to reflect a broader picture.
In fact, using deposit data that is updated weekly from the Federal Reserve’s own H.8 releases, it becomes crystal clear that the large banks are bleeding deposits at the fastest pace in 40 years.
As the Federal Reserve data in the chart above indicates, deposits at the largest 25 commercial banks in the U.S. peaked at $11,679,758,700,000 on April 13, 2022. The most recent H.8 release shows that the deposits of the 25 largest banks as of June 21 stood at $10,758,977,000,000. That’s a percentage decline of 7.88 percent or $920,781,700.
The Fed’s H.8 data defines small domestically- chartered banks as all other commercial banks outside of the 25 largest. As of March 31, that would be 4,071 “small” banks, although more than two dozen of those had between $40 billion to $150 billion in consolidated assets as of March 31.
Deposits at the smaller banks didn’t peak until December 14, 2022, reaching $5,413,667,700,000. The most current reading on June 21 was $5,170,296,000,000, a decline of 4.5 percent from the peak versus the 7.88 percent decline at the 25 largest banks. In actual dollar terms, those 4,071 banks shed just $243.37 billion versus the $920.78 billion at the 25 largest banks.
It should be noted that the Fed’s initial H.8 weekly releases are static. That data is not updated at the H.8 web page, whereas the St. Louis Fed’s FRED H.8 data is updated for charting purposes. We used non- seasonally adjusted numbers, which we feel are more reliable given the unprecedented nature of this year’s banking crisis where three of the four largest banking failures in U.S. history have occurred.
To make your own charts, you will find the Fed’s updated large commercial bank deposit data her e and the small commercial bank deposit data her e. (Place your cursor on the various points of the chart for a date and dollar level reading.)
One of the most striking examples of distorted reporting on deposits by the financial press came on April 28 when a Bloomberg column by John Authers was syndicated to the Washington Post. Authers included this misleading narrative about the four largest U.S. banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup’s Citibank.
“This summary from the Canadian firm Palos Management explains neatly why the bigger banks are still OK:
“The first quarter’s performance of the big four was consistent with a broad consensus that the big banks have capitalized on massive depositor inflows, clearly related to the well- documented liquidity stresses facing their smaller, regionally based brethren. This should come as no surprise. The panic-fueled depositor exodus from the smaller banks to the larger ‘too big to fail’ banks is simply a rational decision. Protection of capital rules.”
As we reported on May 8, the actual reality is this: Deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo Shrank by $465 Billion Y-O-Y; More than Twice the Total of 4,000 Small Banks. Using deposit data from the banks’ own regulatory filings, we reported as follows:
“The deposit losses at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are more than twice what the 4,000 small banks lost in total during the same period. Their combined loss in deposits was just $210 billion…
“Bank of America and Wells Fargo not only lost those large deposit sums on a year-over-year basis, but both banks saw deposits fall during the past five quarters, including the quarter ending March 31, 2023 when headlines were declaring that they were seeing big inflows of deposits as a result of the banking crisis. JPMorgan Chase lost deposits in each of the quarters in 2022 and then saw a small increase in deposits in the first quarter of this year – likely from all of those misleading headlines. (This information is easily obtained from the financial statements the firms file publicly with the SEC.)”
On May 21, the Wall Street Journal ran a big article (paywall) on how the banking crisis has “only made JPMorgan stronger.” Reporter David Benoit writes as follows about JPMorgan Chase’s purchase of the collapsed bank, First Republic:
“Yet JPMorgan’s show of strength, for many, exposed a weakness in the U.S. financial system. The bank and its largest rivals have become so big, their reach so extensive, that the government would almost surely step in to prevent their failure. That implicit guarantee encourages people and businesses to move their money to them in times of stress creating a feedback loop that makes big banks bigger at the expense of their smaller peers.”
JPMorgan Chase’s purchase of the failed First Republic was not a “show of strength,” but a revolting demonstration of regulatory capture at its worst. Despite JPMorgan Chase having admitted to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2014; despite it signing a non-prosecution agreement and three deferred prosecution agreements over the same time span with the Justice Department; and despite it being currently scandalized around the globe for functioning as the cash conduit for Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of school-age girls for more than a decade, this is the sweetheart deal the bank got from the FDIC to take over First Republic: the FDIC would eat 80 percent of any losses on single-family residential mortgages for 7 years and 80 percent of any losses on commercial loans, including commercial real estate, for five years. The FDIC also provided JPMorgan Chase with a $50 billion, five-year fixed- rate loan at an undisclosed interest rate.
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
END
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/
Bix Weir posted this on silver demand from Ted Butler
Here are 3 big one’s that Ted Butler posted today…
The World’s Appetite for Solar Panels is Squeezing Silver Supply
Silver News: Could a Composite of Minerals Including Silver Replace Lithium in Batteries?
SILVER: A Highly Undervalued Golden Opportunity
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2320
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2439
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.37 PTS OR 0.34%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 577.33 PTS OR 3.02%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 565.68 PTS OR 1.70%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.64 EURO RISES TO 1.0895 UP 40 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.412 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.72/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.5405***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.242*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.595…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.843
3j Gold at $1927.00 silver at: 23.23 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 48 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91,48//
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.72// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO 0.412% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8954 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9755 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.973 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.950 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.970 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.03…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.639 UP 14 PTS
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Slide As Rising Yields Spook Markets
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 08:29 AM
US futures extended losses as markets finally noticed the recent surge in Treasury yields across the globe, sparking fears of stagflation and following recent remarks from the Federal Reserve that were more hawkish than anticipated. Sentiment was also cautious ahead of fresh employment data. Stocks have struggled as a result, with the Stoxx 600 down 1.2% and on course for its largest fall in six weeks. As of 8:00am, ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.6%. Treasury yields rose across the curve, adding to gains on Wednesday spurred by the Fed minutes. The policy sensitive two-year rate inched up to 4.96%. The dollar initially dropped but then spiked after a blow out ADP report.
Exxon Mobil fell in premarket trading after forecasting a $4 billion hit to earnings, while Meta Platforms Inc. rose after Instagram officially launched an app designed as a rival to Twitter. Freight transportation companies are likely to see “challenging” results in the second quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, though companies may be more upbeat about the outlook for future periods. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Genius Sports Limited rises 13% after the sports data provider and the National Football League (NFL) agreed to a multi-year extension of their strategic partnership.
- Microsoft’s artificial intelligence-driven gains can propel it to join Apple Inc. in the elite category of stocks with a market capitalization of more than $3 trillion, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Shares are up 0.8%.
- Sweetgreen Inc. climbs 5.1% after BofA raises the salad chain to buy from neutral, citing increasing foot traffic, the prospect that same-store sales growth will see continued momentum, and plans to automate operations.
- Affirm Holdings Inc. shares declined 4.8% in premarket trading Thursday after Piper Sandler cut its recommendation on the buy-now-pay- later firm to underweight from neutral as higher rates and competition put pressure on margins.
- Perion shares gain 9.4% in US premarket trading after the digital media company reported preliminary second-quarter revenue that beat estimates.
- Nkarta rose 2.3% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the biotechnology company announces Alyssa Levin will be its new chief financial and business officer.
- JetBlue shares fell 0.5% in postmarket trading after the company said it’s decided not to appeal a court ruling against the carrier’s Northeast Alliance (NEA) with American Airlines, and that it has initiated the termination of the alliance.
In other news, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen lands in Beijing in a visit aimed at repairing ties between the world’s two largest economies. That’s as Tesla and Chinese rivals signaled truce in a brutal price war that rattled the EV industry this year. And Elon Musk’s Twitter now faces a direct threat from Instagram’s text app Threads, which lured more than 10 million sign-ups in its first seven hours.
US employment reports this week may provide clues on the path for policy. Ahead of the closely watched nonfarm payrolls release on Friday, the so-called JOLTS report of job openings is expected to show a tapering of available positions, and a separate measure of jobless claims is anticipated to tick higher.
Stocks have lost some ground after a strong first half of the year as continued hawkishness from central banks damps hopes of a soft landing for the global economy. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed division among policymakers over the decision to pause rate hikes, with the voting members on track to take rates higher this month.
“The fact that the FOMC has now officially adopted the staff forecasts for a recession in the US is bad for risk assets,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn. “What we get now is that the Fed expects to cause a recession but that won’t stop them hiking at least twice more this year. If that’s not bad for risk assets priced at 20 times earnings, I don’t know what is.”
European stocks retreated following hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting, with investors also weighing early corporate earnings reports. Stoxx 600 dropped down 1.2% and on course for its largest fall in six weeks. United Utilities shares rise as much as 3.2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight saying it sees a long- term, “unprecedented growth opportunity” for UK water companies, that isn’t factored into current prices. Here are some other notable European movers:
- U-blox gains as much as 4.1%, most since May 30, after Baader raised its recommendation on the Swiss semiconductor company to buy from add.
- Hunting shares surge as much as 19% after the energy services provider said it has performed ahead of expectations in the first half. Guidance is increased again for 2023, and Hunting added that the outlook for 2024 is improving.
- Suedzucker shares rise as much as 5% following its results, with Warburg describing the German food ingredients firm’s start to the year as “stellar.”
- Edmond de Rothschild Private Banking cut its exposure to luxury stocks in May given their expensive valuation, its chief investment officer said. LVMH shares fall as much as 2% Hermes as much as 2.7%.
- Currys shares sink as much as 15% after the UK electronics- and-appliances retailer noted an uncertain economic outlook in its main markets and said it isn’t paying a final dividend.
- Embracer shares fall as much as 14% after an offering of 80m class B shares priced at SEK25 apiece, representing 9.2% discount to last close.
- Ocado shares drop as much as 3.6% after Morgan Stanley lowered its price target and estimates ahead of the UK online grocer’s first-half results. The broker said that recent share-price strength has been surprising.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mostly lower following the post-Independence Day hangover in the US owing to recent weak global data releases, a rising yield environment and after the FOMC Minutes provided little to deviate from the current view of future rate increases.Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell by the most since Jan. 30 with banks among the biggest drags, amid broad weakness in the Asia Pacific region. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falls as much as 3.7%. Banks were among the biggest drags: China Construction Bank down as much as 3.3%; Industrial and Commercial Bank -3%; Bank of China -1.8%. The selling was acute after China’s largest lenders cut rates for corporate US dollar deposits amid efforts to support the yuan and with banks said to have stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny, while losses in the mainland were stemmed ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s arrival in Beijing for meetings with senior officials. Nikkei 225 was pressured at the open with selling exacerbated after slipping beneath the 33,000 level. Australia’s ASX 200 traded lower as underperformance in the mining and materials-related industries spearheaded the declines seen in nearly all sectors and with risk appetite also sapped by a rise in Aussie yields.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1% as the yen led gains against Group-of-10 peers as regional stock markets racked up losses, boosting haven demand. A gauge of the dollar consolidated after Wednesday’s gain. USD/JPY drops 0.8% to 143.56 while EUR/JPY weakens 0.8% to 155.85. In China, the central bank extended support for the yuan via a stronger daily reference rate. Chinese investors don’t expect policymakers to unveil aggressive stimulus or big economic reforms at a key meeting expected later this month, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
In rates, Treasury yields rose as much as 5bps across the curve, adding to gains on Wednesday spurred by the Fed minutes. The policy sensitive two-year rate was 3bps higher at 4.97% after the Fed minutes signaled they are on track to raise rates again this month. In the UK, yields on 10-year government bonds climbed as much as 10bps to 4.59%, highest since October when then Prime Minister Liz Truss’s fiscal plan unnerved markets. Traders are now fully pricing a terminal Bank of England rate of 6.5% by February, sending two-year yields rise 8bps to 5.46% .
In commodities, crude futures advance, with WTI rising 0.7% to trade near $72.30. Spot gold adds 0.2% to around $1,919. Bitcoin adds 3%
Notable upside has been seen throughout the morning in key crypto’s including Bitcoin and ETH, up over 2% thus far with Bitcoin surpassing and climbing further above the USD 31k mark.
Looking to the day ahead, and there’s several US data releases including the ISM services index for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for June, the JOLTS job openings for May and the trade balance for May. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for May, along with the German and UK construction PMIs for June.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,463.25
- MXAP down 1.4% to 162.61
- MXAPJ down 1.6% to 511.35
- Nikkei down 1.7% to 32,773.02
- Topix down 1.3% to 2,277.08
- Hang Seng Index down 3.0% to 18,533.05
- Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,205.58
- Sensex up 0.3% to 65,615.34
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 7,163.45
- Kospi down 0.9% to 2,556.29
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 452.54
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
- Euro little changed at $1.0849
- Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.90/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,916.85
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.35
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Bets on the trajectory of the Bank of England’s key interest rate surged to the highest level in a quarter century as traders questioned officials’ ability to tame inflation without hobbling the UK economy.
- German factory orders rebounded in May, a sign the manufacturing slump may be easing as Europe’s biggest economy shakes off a recession.
- Federal Reserve officials were less united at their June meeting than their unanimous decision suggested, as some favored interest-rate increases but went along with the move to leave policy unchanged.
- After months of central banks dominating foreign-exchange markets, commodities may be starting to bear more influence over currencies.
- China’s central bank extended support for the yuan via a stronger daily reference rate, a day after its flagship newspaper reassured investors that authorities have sufficient ammunition to stabilize the weakening currency.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower following the post-Independence Day hangover in the US owing to recent weak global data releases, a rising yield environment and after the FOMC Minutes provided little to deviate from the current view of future rate increases. ASX 200 traded lower as underperformance in the mining and materials-related industries spearheaded the declines seen in nearly all sectors and with risk appetite also sapped by a rise in Aussie yields.Nikkei 225 was pressured at the open with selling exacerbated after slipping beneath the 33,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with acute selling in Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks after China’s largest lenders cut rates for corporate US dollar deposits amid efforts to support the yuan and with banks said to have stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny, while losses in the mainland were stemmed ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s arrival in Beijing for meetings with senior officials.
Top Asian News
- Chinese banks stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny.
- US Commerce Department firmly opposes export controls announced by China on gallium and germanium, while the US will engage with allies and partners to address the export controls announced by China.
- China Stocks Sink in Hong Kong on Growth Woes, Fed Concerns
- China Sees Suicide Rise Among Young People
- Mining Sector Raised to Hold at Liberum on Balanced Price Risks
- Malaysia Keeps Key Rate Steady to Support Slowing Economy
- Dalian Wanda Commercial Rating Cut to B1 From Ba2 at Moody’s
- ETFs Dominate Emerging-Market Flows as Money Managers Lose Share
- US Warned Hong Kong Banks on Tech Exports to Russia, Nikkei Says
- SoftBank Takes Advantage of BOJ’s Dovish Stance to Sell Bond
- Tesla and Chinese Rivals Signal Truce in Brutal EV Price War
- Japan in Talks to Buy Gas From Qatar Amid Diversification Shift
European bourses are in the red with cyclicals in particular lagging on ongoing growth concerns, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%. Sectors are all in the red with the negative price action extending shortly after the cash open given Construction PMIs, Cyclicals lag while Defensive names are the relative outperformers but remain firmly negative. Stateside, futures slip ahead of a busy data docket with the RTY -0.7% lagging given the above while the NQ -0.4% fares slightly better given META +1.7% pre-market action as Threads launches. Meta (META) CEO Zuckerberg says Threads passed 10mln signups in seven hours. ASML “told the Global Times on Thursday that it did not roll out a special-edition lithography machine for the Chinese market, responding to the market rumour of a special ASML DUV system for Chinese market.”
Top European News
- SNB’s Maechler said the SNB still sees inflation as being very high and doesn’t rule out further rate increases, according to Le Temps.
- BoE’s Bailey says moves by regulators on retail prices, particularly in the fuel market, will help to lower inflation, via BBC; evidence that some retailers are overcharging customers. Expects quite a marked fall in inflation but it will be hard for borrowers, cannot provide a date for when interest rates will begin to come down.
- BoE Decision Maker Panel: One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 5.7% in June, down from 5.9% in May. Expected year-ahead wage growth slightly increased to 5.3% on the month in June (up from 5.2% in May) although the three-month moving average decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3%.
- UK PM Sunak has reportedly tapped German Chancellor Scholz to help delay the EU EV tariff, according to Bloomberg News.
FX
- Yen turns the tide in choppy risk waters, with USD/JPY reversing through 144.00 where hefty option expiries reside and JPY crosses also retracing a chunk of their recent upside.
- DXY slips from post-FOMC minutes peak within 103.460-100 range as focus shifts to ADP, IJC, ISM services and JOLTS.
- Aussie and Kiwi resist aversion with the former underpinned by encouraging trade data and both relieved to see Yuan propped by PBoC; AUD/USD and NZD/USD towards upper end of 0.6686-34 and 0.6214-0.6164 bands.
- Euro is losing sight of 1.0900, but holding above key support and Pound propped around 1.2700 as BoE rate expectations continue to rocket.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.2510 (prev. 7.1968)
Fixed Income
- No respite for debt and hawkish Central Bank vibes compound bearish technical impulses.
- Bunds probe support zone between 132.09-65 bounds, Gilts towards base of 93.14-94.03 range and T-note nearer 11-01+ than 111-15 overnight high.
- OATs and Bonos weak after lacklustre demand for French and Spanish supply irrespective of marked concessions.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are firmer by around USD 0.30/bbl a piece with specific drivers limited and despite broader growth concerns impacting elsewhere.
- Reminder, the OPEC summit has entered its second day though remarks thus far have been less impactful than Saudi’s commentary on Wednesday.
- Spot gold is benefitting from the softer USD and downbeat sentiment with the yellow metal attempting to move above USD 1920/oz.
- Base metals are, in contrast, lower and in-fitting with broader sentiment with LME Copper slipping below USD 8250/T, despite Codelco warning its copper production will end 2023 at the low-end of its forecast range.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Gasoline +1.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. +0.5mln)
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium says all pumping stations are working as usual.
Geopolitics
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he wanted the counteroffensive to happen much earlier and he told US and European leaders that Ukraine needed the weapons for that, while he also noted that difficulties on the battlefield slowed the pace of the counteroffensive, according to a CNN interview.
- US Air Force said 3 Russian fighter jets harassed drones during a mission against ISIS which forced the US to perform evasive manoeuvres, according to AJA Breaking.
- Swedish PM Kristersson said after meeting with US President Biden that Biden expressed very strong support for Sweden’s NATO accession and they both agreed the NATO Summit in Vilnius is a natural time for Swedish NATO accession, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken stressed the importance of NATO unity in a call with the Turkish Foreign Minister and encouraged Turkey’s support for Sweden to join the NATO alliance now.
- Two shells fired by Israel towards southern Lebanon fell after a missile was fired from Kafr Shuba, according to Al Arabiya. Additionally, at least one rocket has been fired from Southern Lebanon towards Israel, via Reuters citing three security sources. Subsequently, “There was no rocket from Lebanon into Israel this morning, there is controlled mine explosions being conducted along the border.”, according to AuroraIntel. Most recently, Israel’s Kan Radio saying Israeli forces shelling Lebanon is in response to rocket launch.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says Russia will consult with Belarus in case nuclear weapons are used, according to Tass; says we are not going to attack anyone with nuclear weapons, but if aggression is shown, the response will be immediate. Adding that targets have been determined.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says talks on Ukraine hit dead end; nuclear weapons will not be used during special military operation, it’s only possible in case of NATO aggression, according to Tass.
US Event Calendar
- 08:15: June ADP Employment Change 497,000, est. 225,000, prior 278,000
- 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 239,000
- 08:30: June Continuing Claims, est. 1.73m, prior 1.74m
- 08:30: May Trade Balance, est. – $69b, prior -$74.6b
- 09:45: June S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 53.0
- 09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54.1, prior 54.1
- 10:00: May JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.89m, prior 10.1m
- 10:00: June ISM Services Index, est. 51.2, prior 50.3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
With the US back from their holiday, it wasn’t a great day for 60/40 portfolios as bonds and equities mostly declined in unison. The most notable sell-offs were in US Treasuries (10yr UST +7.7bps) and with a 6.6bps steepening of the US curve, Gilts (10yr +7.8bps), and a -0.73% decline in the Stoxx 600.
The sell-off in 10yr Treasuries (+7.7bps) helped them hit a post-SVB high of 3.93%. Yields edged higher all day until the Fed minutes were released towards the latter part of the trading session. At that point the sell-off seemed to stall. Real yields led the move, with the 5yr real yield (+7.0bps) closing above 2% for the first time since 2008, highlighting that policy and yields are getting more restrictive. The front-end was more resilient with the 2yr yield only +0.9bps higher. Fed futures are indicating 33bps of hikes through the November meeting with an 85% likelihood of a hike in 3 weeks’ time at the July meeting. Meanwhile in early Asian trading, yields on the 10yr USTs (+2.18bps) continue to move upwards, trading at 3.95% as we go to print.
The Fed minutes portrayed a divided committee to some degree, highlighting that while “almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5% to 5.25%, some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal.” There were also discussions of how much of the top-line economic data may not be capturing the full picture of a slowing economy, specifically the discrepancies between GDP and GDI, as well as nonfarm payrolls and the aggregate hours worked. These were two factors that led the Fed staff to maintain their forecast for a recession. Lastly, the minutes gave further evidence that the Fed is still concerned about sticky inflationary forces, with the minutes citing a resilient labour market and higher shelter inflation.
That US bond sell-off was matched in the UK, with 10yr Gilt yields (+7.8bps) closing at their highest level since the mini-budget turmoil last September at 4.49%. And for both the 2yr and 5yr yields, they hit levels that haven’t been seen since 2008, at 5.38% and 4.78%, respectively. That followed a government bond auction, in which some 2025 notes went for 5.668%, which is the highest average rate since an auction in June 2007. Bear in mind as well that investors’ expectations for future BoE hikes have only become more aggressive in recent days. Indeed, overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 50%-plus likelihood that the terminal rate will go as far as 6.5% over the months ahead.
The softness in equities was more down to generally poor data releases. Firstly, the final European PMIs came in beneath expectations, thus helping to ramp up fears about a recession again. Furthermore, that came on the heels of some downside surprises out of China we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, as well as the poor ISM manufacturing print at the start of the week. So there’s a growing sense that this might be starting to form a pattern now. Today, we’ve got another batch of important releases, including the ISM services and the weekly jobless claims, so any more negative surprises will only ratchet up this sense that the data is starting to turn again.
The most important PMI yesterday was the Euro Area composite PMI, where the final reading for June was revised down to 49.9 (vs. flash 50.3). This is hardly the biggest PMI revision we’ve ever had, but it pushed the composite number beneath the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, which is the first time that’s happened in 6 months. As discussed at the top, this meant European equities suffered a relatively big hit yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (-0.73%) suffering its worst performance in a couple of weeks.
US equities didn’t experience falls on quite that scale, but the S&P 500 (-0.20%) still lost ground after the holiday. Those declines were spread fairly evenly, with the NASDAQ (-0.18%) and the Dow Jones (-0.38%) seeing similar-sized moves. That said, small-cap stocks did underperform, with the Russell 2000 (-1.26%) losing ground after a run of 6 consecutive gains. Cyclicals were a decent underperformer as well with materials (-2.5%), consumer durables (-1.2%), and transports (-0.8%) the worst performers.
Back to bonds and the sell-off was much smaller in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.5ps) and OATs (+1.0bps) seeing more modest moves, but those on BTPs (-3.1bps) falling back. That was supported by more positive news on the inflation side, with the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey for May showing a further decline in inflation expectations. That showed median expectations for the next 12 months falling to 3.9%, which is their lowest level since February 2022, back when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.
On top of that, we got the latest PPI reading from the Euro Area in May, which came in beneath expectations again. The big headline was that producer prices were actually down relative to a year ago, with year-on-year deflation of -1.5% (vs. -1.3% expected), which marks a stunning turnaround from the +43.4% peak last August.
Asian equity markets are falling this morning extending the decline in global equities as rising odds of further policy tightening by the Fed damp sentiment. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-3.08%) is sharply down, emerging as the biggest underperformer across the region with declines led by technology stocks and basic materials. The Nikkei (-1.22%) and the KOSPI (-0.44%) are also seeing losses in morning trade. Meanwhile in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.45%) and the CSI (-0.30%) are also in the red. In overnight trading, US stock futures are indicating a negative start, with those tied to the S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.32%) edging lower.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s trade balance for the month of May widened to A$11.8bn (v/s A$10.9bn expected) from a downwardly revised surplus of A$10.5bn. Meanwhile, overall exports rebounded strongly by +4.0% m/m in May, after a -6.0% decline in the preceding month. Yields on 10yr Australian government bonds moved higher by +11bps, trading at 4.11%, the highest level since October.
Lastly, oil prices continued to rise yesterday following the production cuts that were announced earlier in the week. That left Brent crude up +0.52% at $76.65/bbl, which is its highest closing level in two weeks. WTI prices saw a big catch-up as well following the holiday, with a +2.87% gain to $71.79/bbl.
To the day ahead now, and there’s several US data releases including the ISM services index for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for June, the JOLTS job openings for May and the trade balance for May. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for May, along with the German and UK construction PMIs for June.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Sentiment slips as growth concerns draw focus, yields continue to climb – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 06:24 AM
- European bourses and US futures are pressured as growth concerns draw focus before key US data
- Cyclicals lag while defensives outperform, but remain red; Meta is bolstered as Threads launches
- DXY slips post-Minutes while USD/JPY reverses through 144.00 and Antipodeans lead despite risk aversion
- Gilts gap lower as BoE tightening expectations continue to lift, EGBs and USTs in-fitting with yields lifting further
- Crude holds onto modest upside while spot gold benefits from the USD and risk, factors which are denting base peers
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, US S&P Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, US EIA Crude Stocks, Speeches from Fed’s Logan.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are in the red with cyclicals in particular lagging on ongoing growth concerns, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%.
- Sectors are all in the red with the negative price action extending shortly after the cash open given Construction PMIs, Cyclicals lag while Defensive names are the relative outperformers but remain firmly negative.
- Stateside, futures slip ahead of a busy data docket with the RTY -0.7% lagging given the above while the NQ -0.4% fares slightly better given META +1.7% pre-market action as Threads launches.
- Meta (META) CEO Zuckerberg says Threads passed 10mln signups in seven hours.
- ASML (ASML NA) “told the Global Times on Thursday that it did not roll out a special-edition lithography machine for the Chinese market, responding to the market rumour of a special ASML DUV system for Chinese market.”
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
- Yen turns the tide in choppy risk waters, with USD/JPY reversing through 144.00 where hefty option expiries reside and JPY crosses also retracing a chunk of their recent upside.
- DXY slips from post-FOMC minutes peak within 103.460-100 range as focus shifts to ADP, IJC, ISM services and JOLTS.
- Aussie and Kiwi resist aversion with the former underpinned by encouraging trade data and both relieved to see Yuan propped by PBoC; AUD/USD and NZD/USD towards upper end of 0.6686-34 and 0.6214-0.6164 bands.
- Euro is losing sight of 1.0900, but holding above key support and Pound propped around 1.2700 as BoE rate expectations continue to rocket.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.2510 (prev. 7.1968)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable option expiries.
FIXED INCOME
- No respite for debt and hawkish Central Bank vibes compound bearish technical impulses.
- Bunds probe support zone between 132.09-65 bounds, Gilts towards base of 93.14-94.03 range and T-note nearer 11-01+ than 111-15 overnight high.
- OATs and Bonos weak after lacklustre demand for French and Spanish supply irrespective of marked concessions.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are firmer by around USD 0.30/bbl a piece with specific drivers limited and despite broader growth concerns impacting elsewhere.
- Reminder, the OPEC summit has entered its second day though remarks thus far have been less impactful than Saudi’s commentary on Wednesday.
- Spot gold is benefitting from the softer USD and downbeat sentiment with the yellow metal attempting to move above USD 1920/oz.
- Base metals are, in contrast, lower and in-fitting with broader sentiment with LME Copper slipping below USD 8250/T, despite Codelco warning its copper production will end 2023 at the low-end of its forecast range.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Gasoline +1.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. +0.5mln)
- Caspian Pipeline Consortium says all pumping stations are working as usual.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Williams (voter) said he is not content with where inflation is right now and that fighting inflation remains the Fed’s main job, while he sees progress on inflation but noted price pressures are still too high. Williams also noted a data-dependent approach when it comes to future Fed actions and thinks that they still have more work to do on rates. Furthermore, he said real rates are projected to be restrictive for some time and the June rate pause was the right move but future hikes are still in play.
- US Secretary Yellen arrived in Beijing as expected, according to Chinese State media.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Industrial Orders MM (May) 6.4% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -0.4%)
- EU HCOB Construction PMI (Jun) 44.2 (Prev. 44.6). “An end to the downturn can probably be expected at the earliest when it is clear that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not raise its key interest rates any further and that long-term yields will also stop rising. While the ECB is approaching its “terminal rate,” there is still room for loftier long-term yields given the relatively high inflation rate. Higher interest rates have been cited as an important burdening factor by some of the companies surveyed for many months now.”
- EU Retail Sales YY (May) -2.9% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -2.6%); MM (May) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (prev. 0.0%)
- UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun) 48.9 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.6)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- SNB’s Maechler said the SNB still sees inflation as being very high and doesn’t rule out further rate increases, according to Le Temps.
- BoE’s Bailey says moves by regulators on retail prices, particularly in the fuel market, will help to lower inflation, via BBC; evidence that some retailers are overcharging customers. Expects quite a marked fall in inflation but it will be hard for borrowers, cannot provide a date for when interest rates will begin to come down.
- BoE Decision Maker Panel: One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 5.7% in June, down from 5.9% in May. Expected year-ahead wage growth slightly increased to 5.3% on the month in June (up from 5.2% in May) although the three-month moving average decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3%.
- UK PM Sunak has reportedly tapped German Chancellor Scholz to help delay the EU EV tariff, according to Bloomberg News.
CRYPTO
- Notable upside has been seen throughout the morning in key crypto’s including Bitcoin and ETH, up over 2% thus far with Bitcoin surpassing and climbing further above the USD 31k mark.
GEOPOLITICS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he wanted the counteroffensive to happen much earlier and he told US and European leaders that Ukraine needed the weapons for that, while he also noted that difficulties on the battlefield slowed the pace of the counteroffensive, according to a CNN interview.
- US Air Force said 3 Russian fighter jets harassed drones during a mission against ISIS which forced the US to perform evasive manoeuvres, according to AJA Breaking.
- Swedish PM Kristersson said after meeting with US President Biden that Biden expressed very strong support for Sweden’s NATO accession and they both agreed the NATO Summit in Vilnius is a natural time for Swedish NATO accession, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken stressed the importance of NATO unity in a call with the Turkish Foreign Minister and encouraged Turkey’s support for Sweden to join the NATO alliance now.
- Two shells fired by Israel towards southern Lebanon fell after a missile was fired from Kafr Shuba, according to Al Arabiya. Additionally, at least one rocket has been fired from Southern Lebanon towards Israel, via Reuters citing three security sources. Subsequently, “There was no rocket from Lebanon into Israel this morning, there is controlled mine explosions being conducted along the border.”, according to AuroraIntel. Most recently, Israel’s Kan Radio saying Israeli forces shelling Lebanon is in response to rocket launch.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says Russia will consult with Belarus in case nuclear weapons are used, according to Tass; says we are not going to attack anyone with nuclear weapons, but if aggression is shown, the response will be immediate. Adding that targets have been determined.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says talks on Ukraine hit dead end; nuclear weapons will not be used during special military operation, it’s only possible in case of NATO aggression, according to Tass.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the post-Independence Day hangover in the US owing to recent weak global data releases, a rising yield environment and after the FOMC Minutes provided little to deviate from the current view of future rate increases.
- ASX 200 traded lower as underperformance in the mining and materials-related industries spearheaded the declines seen in nearly all sectors and with risk appetite also sapped by a rise in Aussie yields.
- Nikkei 225 was pressured at the open with selling exacerbated after slipping beneath the 33,000 level.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with acute selling in Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks after China’s largest lenders cut rates for corporate US dollar deposits amid efforts to support the yuan and with banks said to have stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny, while losses in the mainland were stemmed ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s arrival in Beijing for meetings with senior officials.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese banks stopped buying bonds issued in the Shanghai free trade zone after heightened regulatory scrutiny.
- US Commerce Department firmly opposes export controls announced by China on gallium and germanium, while the US will engage with allies and partners to address the export controls announced by China.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Trade Balance (AUD) (May) 11.8B vs. Exp. 10.5B (Prev. 11.2B)
- Australian Exports MM (May) 4.0% (Prev. -5.0%); Imports MM (May) 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.37 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 577.33 PTS OR 3.02% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 565.68 OR 1.70% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.18 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2332 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2439 /Oil UP TO 72.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.77 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
Unlike the USA, China’s property market after initial stimulus from government falters again
(zerohedge)
“Like A Cheesy Horror Movie” China’s Property Market Woes Refuse To Stay Dead
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 10:00 PM
By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist
It is like a cheesy horror movie: Every time there’s a glimpse of hope for a narrow escape, Chinese real estate developers are pulled back into the abyss. The turmoil at the state-backed Sino-Ocean Group underscores the renewed tensions in the market and that the current piecemeal policy easing isn’t working.
Markets can sometimes defy “common sense.” Despite skyrocketing mortgage rates, the US housing market, one of the most interest-rate sensitive sectors, somehow has roared back to life. Some Fed officials noted that “the effect of high interest rates on the housing sector appeared to be bottoming out,” according to the minutes from the June meeting released Wednesday.
In China, the opposite is true. Even with ever lower interest rates, the slump in the property market resumed after the pent-up demand following the end of Covid Zero faded. Sales among the 100 largest developers tumbled 28% in June from a year earlier, when Covid restrictions were still in place, according to China Real Estate Information Corp. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kristy Hung expects a further decline of more than 10% for the remainder of the year.
Without a sales revival, some troubled developers are struggling to repay debt. State-backed Sino-Ocean saw its bonds tumble in recent days amid concerns about its deteriorating cash positions. That’s a significant development. Credit analysts Eric Ollom at Citigroup wrote in a note last week:
…unlike the property companies that have already defaulted in China, Sino-Ocean can be considered a quasi-sovereign. Thus, any delay in debt servicing is likely to have wider repercussions for the SOEs, particularly in the real estate sector in China.
While we view a scenario of Sino-Ocean default as still unlikely, we believe the tail risks of such an event have expanded. Consequently, the pressure on property sector spreads is likely to persist and valuations are likely to get cheaper.
Where do we go from here? In their conversation with their clients, Goldman Sachs’ economists noted that views are mixed (report available to professional subscribers). Pessimists pointed to structural imbalances between top-tier and lower-tier cities’ property markets, while optimists noted recent property policy loosening in big cities as signs for hope, economists including Maggie Wei wrote in a note.
In any case, the Goldman clients don’t expect any major policies regarding the housing market or local government financing to be rolled out soon as Beijing takes its time to explore different options.
Expect more twists and turns before the horror show comes to the finale.
end
CHINA
Beijing needs another stimulus from government to bring back growth
(zerohedge)
Beijing Needs A Spending Binge To Bring Back Growth
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 07:00 PM
By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
A dose of fiscal stimulus may help to cure some of China’s economic woes but whether Beijing is prepared to loosen its purse strings remains anyone’s guess.
Last month, Dow Jones reported that policymakers were weighing the issuance of special treasury bonds worth roughly 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) to help fund new infrastructure projects. There’s been no official announcement since then but a growing chorus of experts at home and abroad are calling for more aggressive fiscal relief for Chinese businesses and consumers.
According to Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute who coined the term “balance-sheet recession” to explain Japan’s lost decades, it may take companies and households many years to cut down debt and restore financial health in a “very painful process.” In fact, more Chinese are now expecting their incomes as well as home prices to fall in the coming three months, according to a PBOC depositor survey. What Beijing should do, in Koo’s opinion, is to “focus all energy on fiscal stimulus to keep the economy going.”
Liu Yuhui, a prominent academic at a government think tank and former chief economist at several local brokerages, suggested at a public event last week that Beijing should utilize special government bonds to help companies, households and local authorities “repair their balance sheets in an aggressive manner.” Money raised through such debt can go toward covering social security payments from both employers and employees, so that businesses can hire more and workers earn more disposable income, according to Liu.
Wanting Beijing to shoulder a bigger share of China’s borrowing burden isn’t too much to ask: with corporate leverage well above Japan’s peak in the 1990s, early mortgage payments hitting a five-year high and local government coffers increasingly strained, the central government may be the only major player left to borrow. And it has room to do so: taking into account hidden liabilities from local government financing vehicles, total public debt stood at about 126% of GDP last year, roughly half of Japan’s level, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs.
The central authority borrowed at the fastest pace on record in 1Q. Still, increasing government leverage won’t run into “hard constraints” as long as the balance of payments remains healthy and inflation pressure doesn’t pick up, Xu Gao, chief economist at Bank of China International, argued in an article last week.
Beijing is probably holding back for fear that aggressive stimulus will overstimulate the economy and fuel a jump in leverage, like it did in the past. But authorities may be left with no choice if no one else steps up to revive spending and growth.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
The high cost of energy will get higher. UK’s wind industry is blackmailing government demanding huge ramp up subsidies
(zerohedge)
Wind Industry Blackmails UK Demanding Huge Ramp-Up Of Subsidies
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Authored by Will Jones via The Daily Sceptic,
In a move that gives the lie to years of propaganda claiming falling costs, the wind industry’s leading lobbyists have written to the Government threatening to abandon the U.K. unless subsidies for their companies are hugely increased…
The industry lobbyists claim that unforeseen rising costs now require three actions:
- A revision to the auction rules so that the winners are not determined by lowest bids but by an administrative decision that weights bids according to their ‘value’ in contributing towards the Net Zero targets.
- Special new targets and thus market shares for floating offshore wind, one of the most expensive of all forms of generation;
- A vast increase in the budget for the fifth auction (AR5) of Contracts for Difference subsidies, with an increase of two and half times the current levels for non-floating offshore wind alone;
Such changes, were the Government to agree to them, would not only increase the total amount of subsidy to an industry that was until recently claiming no longer to need public support, but also provide the industry with protected shares of the energy market, eliminating risks for investors at the expense of the paying public. It would also clearly be an open invitation to corruption.
Climate lobby group Net Zero Watch has urged the Government to stand up for consumers by rejecting the wind industry’s latest demands.
Dr. John Constable, Net Zero Watch’s Energy Director, said:
“It would be both absurd and counterproductive for Government to bail out the wind industry in spite of the evident failure to reduce costs. A refusal to learn from mistakes will be disastrous.”
In a press release, the organisation argued the Government should “reject the self-serving demands” because the U.K. economy should not be expected to continue to subsidise a sector “that is still uneconomic after nearly 20 years of above-market prices and guaranteed market share”.
“The wind experiment has failed and must be wound down,” it adds.
The Government should also be mindful that U.K. households and businesses are already experiencing extreme pressures on budgets, and a further burden on the energy bill should not be tolerated, it says.
This is particularly the case as the wind industry’s current cost difficulties are “neither unforeseen nor unpredicted but have been obvious to careful observers for over a decade”.
end
GERMANY
We have high lighted this to you recently: The Rhine’s low water levels will make transportation of goods high higher and this is adding to Germany’s headaches
(Bloomberg)
Rhine’s Low Water Levels Add To German Headaches
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 03:30 AM
By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets live reporter and strategist
It’s the last thing that key German industries — already confronting a weak earnings outlook — need this summer: The Rhine is declining rapidly, another potentially nasty headache for Europe’s biggest economy.
Dwindling water levels at Kaub, a chokepoint that can prove a struggle for vessels on their journey inland, are evoking memories of the hot summers of 2022, 2018 and 2015.
Snaking roughly 800 miles (1,288 kilometers) from Switzerland to the North Sea, the Rhine carries vital deliveries and exports of heating oil, gasoline, coal and other commodities. The river is back in focus after disruptions to shipping last summer left parts of inland Europe short of fuel, a problem made worse by a spate of refinery outages.
The DAX Index dropped 20% from early June until late September in 2022 as investors added worries over the Rhine’s navigability to a list of concerns ranging from other supply chain glitches and high inflation to the war in Ukraine and a weakening global economy.
The Rhine could again be about to leave the DAX high and dry. The German blue-chip benchmark is already underperforming other major European peers like the CAC, the FTSEMIB and the IBEX, once dividends are stripped out to establish a fair comparison.
The bad economic news is beginning to stack up too. Final German manufacturing activity numbers for June showed further deterioration, softness that may eventually drag stocks lower. So far, German manufacturers have brushed off weakness in PMI numbers this year, much like companies in other major European markets. When that resistance finally crumbles, the effects could be stark: industrials, construction materials and chemicals account for about 31% of the DAX and carmakers about 12%.
In the lead-up to reporting their results, some prominent German companies have warned about the outlook for profits, including chemical manufacturers Lanxess and K+S, and electrical power equipment maker Siemens Energy.
“We see the risk of a disappointing 2Q23 earnings season, given weak manufacturing data and companies increasingly flagging the impact of a more challenging macro environment,” says Unicredit strategist Christian Stocker. He notes that chemical company profit warnings bode ill for European industrials in general, while a strong decline in German Ifo business climate readings over the past two months — a test of sentiment at 9,000 businesses — is ominous.
Of course, companies have emergency plans for dealing with low river levels, and these steps might limit the threat of supply challenges or production halts. Utility EnBW, for example, has built up its coal stock. Chemical manufacturer BASF has a small fleet of special barges suited to a shallower Rhine. Evonik Industries last year chartered additional ships and trucks to compensate for reduced capacity on barges. The effectiveness of these strategies could soon be put to a fresh test.
end
GERMANY
Germany is now under pressure not to supply more aid to Ukraine especially long range military fighting weapons.
(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)
Germany Under Pressure, Voices Caution On Western Escalations In Ukraine
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,
Top German officials expressed concern regarding Western escalations in Ukraine and signaled Berlin will push back against the most provocative proposals.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany was reluctant to send longer-range weapons to Ukraine as the arms may be used to attack Russian territory. London has provided Kiev with Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles which have a range of more than 155 miles. According to recent reporting, the White House is closing in on a decision to send Army Tactical Missile Systems, also known as ATACMS, to Ukraine. These rockets can be fired roughly 200 miles.
Last month, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu warned the West that Ukraine using long-range weapons to attack the Crimean Peninsula could lead to a direct war between Moscow and NATO. “The use of these missiles outside the zone of our special military operation would mean that the United States and Britain would be fully dragged into the conflict and would entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine,” he said.
Berlin is now receiving requests from Kiev to provide Taurus KEPD 350 missiles, an air-launched missile with a range of over 300 miles. Scholz said Germany is considering the request.
Germany has been the subject of intense pressure throughout the war due to Berlin’s reluctance, at times, to provide Kiev with all requested aid. However, in several instances, Berlin has caved to Kiev’s demands. In one example, Germany resisted sending its Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. After Poland, the UK and the US pledged to send advanced tanks, Germany sent Ukraine dozens of its Leopard 2 main battle tanks.
Some of the German tanks have already been destroyed on the battlefield and Kiev is asking Berlin for replacements. Meanwhile, the American Abrams tanks have not yet arrived in Ukraine.
Berlin is additionally pushing back on plans to give Ukraine an official timeline for membership in NATO at a summit in Vilnius next week. In an interview published in Rzeczpospolita on Monday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the alliance will be unable to determine the conditions for Kiev to join the alliance until after the conclusion of the war with Russia.
“In my recent meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, we were once again in agreement that the Alliance must never become a party to a conflict,” He continued, “Therefore, we will not be able to answer the question of Ukraine’s accession to NATO as long as the war continues in Ukraine.”
Pistorius went on to explain that Germany is committed to supporting Ukraine’s war effort for as long as the conflict continues. He said Berlin would be delivering dozens of older Leopard 1 tanks to Kiev in the coming weeks.
END
FRANCE
Robert H:
Weapons supplied by the West to Kyiv are used by protesters in France
Many months ago, it was clear that all manner of weapons supplied to Ukraine were being sold to gangs across Europe and beyond with next day delivery offered in Paris.
Now we are starting to see use of such weapons in France and likely in many other parts of Europe.
https://avia-pro.net/news/postavlyaemoe-zapadom-kievu-oruzhie-primenyaetsya-protestuyushchimi-vo-francii
end
FRANCE
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA//
end
RUSSIA/
END
ISRAEL
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
A very important study!‘
A Root Cause Of Mental Illness: Harvard Professor
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 09:00 PM
Authored by Michelle Standlee via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
What Causes Mental Illness?
For years, this pressing question has remained unanswered.
Often, patients seeking clarity encounter explanations such as “it’s genetic” or “depression is a lack of serotonin.”
Mental illness has been an enigma and point of confusion for many researchers and scientists. Despite medical advances, the root cause of mental illness has remained unknown.
However, a recent breakthrough in psychiatry may be the missing piece to this mysterious puzzle.
Dr. Christopher Palmer, a Harvard professor of psychiatry, has been connecting the dots of thousands of research articles regarding the relationship between mental illness and mitochondrial dysfunction.
According to Palmer, this collective research raises concerns about the current treatments used for mental disorders.
A pivotal moment in 2016 started the psychiatrist on a new path when he helped a patient with schizoaffective disorder lose weight. The patient not only suffered from severe mental illness but also low self-esteem due to the weight gain he experienced while on psychotropic medication.
Palmer relayed that he initially couldn’t believe switching to a low-carbohydrate, ketogenic diet could stop chronic auditory hallucinations and paranoid delusions. He quickly started using this intervention in other patients and saw similar—sometimes even more dramatic—results.
This experience encouraged him to begin a scientific journey to understand how a change in diet could help severe mental illness.
Putting the Pieces Together
Palmer discovered decades of scientific research revealing the connection between metabolic and brain health.
Palmer told The Epoch Times, “The more I uncovered in terms of those concrete mechanisms of action, I realized there’s something much bigger here. I’m beginning to connect a lot of dots that our field hasn’t been able to connect before.”
In November 2022, he released a cutting-edge book entitled “Brain Energy,” highlighting his discoveries and theorizing that mitochondrial disorders are the root cause of all mental illnesses.
Drawing from decades of research on metabolism and mitochondria, Palmer believes that mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain. This means that these conditions are not permanent defects and can be corrected by identifying and addressing their root cause. This insight challenges the notion that conditions such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are lifelong disorders.
“People with labels such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder can put their illnesses into remission, they can heal, and they can recover,” Palmer asserted.
“That goes against much of what we tell people today,” he added.
What Is Mitochondrial Dysfunction?
A deep dive into cellular biology reveals tiny organelles within cells responsible for producing energy. Structures called mitochondria are vital for all cells to function normally, including brain cells. When mitochondria are not operating correctly, various health problems can arise, including cardiovascular disease, hypertension, obesity, and Type 2 diabetes.
Palmer pointed out that when mitochondria fail to work correctly, this can also lead to mental disorders such as anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia. The brain needs a considerable amount of energy to work efficiently. When mitochondria are not churning out enough energy, this can lead to abnormalities in the brain’s structure and function, leading to mental illness.
Palmer asserts that mitochondrial dysfunction can produce several changes in the brain that can cause mental illness to develop. These changes include fluctuations in neurotransmitter levels, oxidative stress, and inflammation.
Groundbreaking Theory
If the origin of mental disorders is mitochondrial dysfunction, treatment modalities that address the underlying issue could be more successful than traditional tools.
Medication and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), the standard treatment for most mental disorders, can sometimes manage symptoms but fail to cure the disease.
Palmer, whose clinical work spans over two decades and focuses on the most treatment-resistant cases of mental illness, discovered that many patients struggling with mental illness also demonstrate signs of mitochondrial dysfunction.
He said addressing the fundamental mitochondrial disorder can often improve their mental health condition. Some of his patients have experienced remission of mild to severe symptoms, including depression, psychosis, and hallucinations, and reduced or discontinued their medications.
Though helpful for some patients in the short term, psychiatric medications can often produce side effects such as reduced libido, increased risk of suicide, and weight gain.
“We seriously need to look at the risks and benefits of those treatments over the long term,” Palmer said.
He cautioned that readers and patients should never discontinue medications without advice from their medical providers.
Low-Carb, Ketogenic Diet Shows Promise
According to his research and clinical experience, Palmer suggested numerous strategies to mitigate the effects of mitochondrial dysfunction, including common-sense lifestyle changes such as diet, exercise, stress reduction, and adequate sleep.
One dietary intervention has proven to be the most successful with Palmer’s patients. The ketogenic diet, which dates back to 1920, was first used to treat epilepsy. The diet—high in fat, moderate in protein, and low in carbohydrates—has been shown to increase the number of mitochondria in cells and enhance their function.
One of the ways the ketogenic diet benefits mitochondrial health is through the production of ketones. When the body is in ketosis, it produces ketones from stored fat as an alternative, more efficient fuel source. These ketones can provide energy to cells, including brain cells, which rely heavily on mitochondria for their energy needs.
Mitochondria assist in the production of neurotransmitters, chemicals that influence mood and behavior, such as serotonin and dopamine.
The ketogenic diet also improves insulin resistance because it is low in sugar and carbohydrates. Insulin resistance can also impair the creation of new mitochondria. Insulin resistance results in dysfunction of the mitochondria, reduced energy production, and cellular damage, including in brain cells.
Hope on the Horizon
“We have hundreds of cases of people with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia putting their illnesses into remission. Scientists are pursuing this. We have at least 10 controlled trials of the ketogenic diet for serious mental illness underway now. One is getting ready to publish their pilot trial results soon,” Palmer said.
“There is a lot of momentum behind this,” he said. “This groundbreaking theory opens up entirely new ways for us to conceptualize and treat mental illness going forward. Studies are already underway and rapidly advancing, yet this can have real results in real people today.”
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//
Global economy:
END
VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Menstrual abnormalities: Did Nazi et al. show Menstrual abnormalities after COVID mRNA technology gene vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna)? Yes! A total of 78,138 vaccinated females were included in
this review from 14 studies. Of these, 39,759 (52.05%) had some form of a menstrual problem after vaccination. Menorrhagia, metrorrhagia, and polymenorrhea were the most commonly observed problems
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
SOURCE:
end
Did Nuovo et al. show that the spike protein ‘on its own, by itself’ is dangerously pathological and can induce endothelial damage (cardiovascular damage)? Yes! In ‘Endothelial cell damage is the
central part of COVID-19, mouse model induced by injection of S1 subunit of spike protein’; 13/13 mice brains from fatal COVID, pseudovirions (spike, envelope & membrane proteins) were present
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 6 |
‘In 13/13 brains from fatal COVID-19, pseudovirions (spike, envelope, and membrane proteins without viral RNA) were present in the endothelia of microvessels ranging from 0 to 14 positive cells/200× field (mean 4.3).’
Researchers reported that the ‘pseudovirions strongly co-localized with caspase-3, ACE2, IL6, TNFα, and C5b-9. The surrounding neurons demonstrated increased NMDAR2 and neuronal NOS plus decreased MFSD2a and SHIP1 proteins. Tail vein injection of the full length S1 spike subunit in mice led to neurologic signs (increased thirst, stressed behavior) not evident in those injected with the S2 subunit. The S1 subunit localized to the endothelia of microvessels in the mice brain and showed co-localization with caspase-3, ACE2, IL6, TNFα, and C5b-9. The surrounding neurons showed increased neuronal NOS and decreased MFSD2a.’
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
‘It is concluded that ACE2+ endothelial damage is a central part of SARS-CoV2 pathology and may be induced by the spike protein alone.’
SOURCE:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33360731/
END
Sweden: why did live births drop by near 10% in Sweden in 2022 over 2021? What happened in 2021 in Sweden? Is it the mRNA technology based gene injection that was rolled out causing fertility decline?
The drop in 2023 for the first 4 months Jan to April is even more pronounced than 2022 in the same 4 month period. Why? Was it the pressing deleterious effect of vaccine followed by boosting?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
SOURCE:
end
Read et al. warned us 2015 using chickens (Marek’s disease) that using an imperfect ‘leaky’ vaccine can enhance transmission of highly virulent pathogens; sub-optimal non-sterilizing non-neutralizing
COVID gene injections (mRNA VAX, DID NOT STOP TRANSMISSION) via vaccinating INTO teeth of ongoing pandemic with massive infectious pressure WILL drive selective pressure for more infectious variants
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
SOURCE:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26214839/
end
PATONE: Did Patone et al. report elevated risk of myocarditis, pericarditis, and cardiac arrhythmias with the COVID mRNA technology based gene injection vaccine? Yes!
‘found increased risks myocarditis associated with first dose of ChAdOx1 and Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine over the 1–28 days postvaccine’
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
SOURCE:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0
end
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| UN Demands Permanent Global Emergency Powers to Tackle ‘Climatic Events’ and ‘Pandemics’The unelected United Nations is demanding that world leaders give the globalist agency permanent global emergency powers to tackle any “shocks” that could allegedly emerge from “climate change” or “future pandemics.”READ MORE |
| Stephen A. Smith Sounds Alarm after ESPN Fires Woke Employees: ‘More Coming, I Could Be Next’Stephen A. Smith responded to ESPN firing many woke employees by telling his fans the cuts aren’t over and he could be next.READ MORE |
| Kellyanne Conway Issues Warning to Estranged Husband: ‘Don’t Grovel to the Bullies, George, Including Your MSNBC TV Bros’President Donald Trump’s former White House advisor Kellyanne Conway set her “Twitter famous” soon-to-be-ex-husband straight after he groveled to the bullies on the Left.READ MORE |
| MSNBC’s Joy Reid Finally Comes CleanMSNBC’s Joy Reid finally came clean and admitted how she got into Harvard. She said: “I got into Harvard only because of affirmative action. But then she went on to complain that her presence at the school “was questioned” by classmates. She said: “I was in a big conference class where some white students stood up and said, ‘Those students, …READ MORE |
| Ex-NBA Star Sets ‘Woke’ WNBA Player Straight after She Calls America ‘Trash’Former NBA star Enes Kanter Freedom has set the Washington Mystics’ Natasha Cloud straight after the “woke” WNBA player called America “trash” ahead of July 4th.READ MORE |
| Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal Signed Off by Federal Prosecutor Who Used to Work for ‘First Son’s Partner’The federal prosecutor who signed off on the cushy plea deal for Democrat President Joe Biden’s son, used to work for Hunter Biden’s business partner, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Roseanne Barr Thanks Elon Musk for Not Censoring Her on Twitter: ‘Damn It Feels Good to Be a Gangster’Roseanne Barr made her triumphant return to Twitter, after a nearly three-year absence, by thanking Elon Musk for bringing free speech and comedy back to the Internet.READ MORE |
| Federal Judge Rules Biden Admin Violated 1st Amendment by Censoring CriticsDemocrat President Joe Biden has suffered a crushing defeat in court after a federal judge ruled that his administration violated the First Amendment by censoring critics online.READ MORE |
| AP Smears Patriots with Independence Day Hit PieceThe Associated Press (AP) has been blasted as “pathetic” after the outlet published a hit piece on Independence Day that smears Americans who consider themselves to be patriots.READ MORE |
| IRS Issues Warning: Taxpayers Targeted by New ‘Cardboard Envelope’ Tax ScamThe Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued a warning about a new scam mail scheme that’s targeting taxpayers.READ MORE |
| Jim Caviezel Reveals Disney Told Him to Remove Reference to God from Movie ScriptChristian actor Jim Caviezel has revealed that Disney executives told him to remove all references to God from the script of one of his hit movies.READ MORE |
| Philadelphia Massacre Gunman Is Transgender BLM SupporterCorporate media reports of the Philadelphia massacre are about to drop out of the news cycle after the gunman has been identified as a transgender Black Lives Matter supporter.READ MORE |
| Federal Judge Blocks Biden Admin from Meeting with Big Tech CompaniesA federal judge has issued a temporary injunction to block members of Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration from meeting with Big Tech companies.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| CDC Caught Covering Up Deaths from Covid ShotsREAD MORE… |
| LATEST NEWS: |
| Media Silent After Suspected Mass Shooter Identified as Cross Dressing BLM ActivistRead more…Iowans Hospitable, Skeptical As Pence Stumps Economic RecordRead more…REPORT: The United Nations is Trying to Seize ‘Global Emergency’ Powers With Support From BidenRead more…Happy 4th! Marxist Democrat Cori Bush Trashes Declaration of Independence, Demands ReparationsRead more…Zuckerberg Launching Twitter Rival Called ‘Threads’Read more…Federal and State Prosecutors Target Trump Election Lawyer John Eastman | by Cristina LailaRead more…Bankruptcy Filings on the Rise in First Half of 2023Read more…Joe Biden Ignores Reporters After Cocaine Found at White House (VIDEO)Read more… |
VACCINE IMPACT//
Anthony Holland PhD: Destroying Cancer Cells with Music Frequencies
July 5, 2023 3:53 pm
If you are someone who has contributed charitable funds to “help find a cure for cancer” for the past 50+ years, I am sorry to inform you that you have probably been defrauded by being fooled into contributing funds to Big Pharma and cancer drug research, where a cancer drug is considered “successful” if it can extend the life of a cancer patient for up to 5 years. There are no pharmaceutical products that actually cure cancer, because treating cancer is too profitable of an industry for Big Pharma to allow cures. But the fact is that there are literally hundreds of cures for cancer worldwide, although the FDA has outlawed almost all of them in the U.S. when they became too effective and interfered with drug profits. For a review of “unapproved” but effective cancer cures that we published back in 2014, see: “Unapproved but Effective Cancer Cures.” Another person who has had success in curing cancer with ongoing research here in 2023, is Anthony G. Holland, who has a PhD in musical arts, is a renowned composer who has conducted at Carnegie Hall, and has been a Professor of Music and Director of Music Technology at Skidmore College for over 3 decades. Dr. Holland gained some attention to his work with a presentation in 2013 in a TED Talk, titled “Shattering cancer with resonant frequencies,” that has over 2 million views and is, remarkably, still up on YouTube. He has recently written a publication titled “Inhibition of Proliferation of Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia (ALL) by frequency-specific Oscillating Pulsed Electric Fields (OPEF) broadcast by an enclosed gas plasma antenna.”
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0895 UP 0.0040
USA/ YEN 143.72 DOWN 0.788 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2778 UP 0.0074
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3279 DOWN .0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 17.37 PTS OR 0.34%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 577.33 PTS OR 3.02%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.18% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 577.33 PTS OR 3.02%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.37 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.18%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 565,68 PTS OR 1.70%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1926.60
silver:$23.21
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 102.64 DOWN 40
BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s close.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.358% UP 19 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.424 % UP 4 AND 7//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.698 UP 18 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.377 UP 22 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6265 UP 15 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0861 UP 0.0006 or 6 basis points
USA/Japan: 144.22 DOWN 0.280 OR YEN UP 28 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2690 DOWN 0.0014 OR 14 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0076 OR 76 BASIS pts to 1.3361
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2513
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2690)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.07 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.424…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.084% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.036 UP 12 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 166.49 points or 2.24%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 428.22 PTS OR 2.69%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 233.97 PTS OR 3.20%
Spain IBEX DOWN 208.60PTS OR 2.21%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 745.02PTS OR 2.64%
WTI Oil price 71.86 12: EST
Brent Oil: 76.57 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 91.00 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 48//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6265 UP 15 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.702 UP 21 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0884 UP 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2741 UP .0037 or 37 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6995 % UP 14 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.13 DOWN 0.367 //YEN UP 37 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3281 UP .0057 CDN dollar, DOWN 57 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.92
Brent OIL: 76.54
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS pts to 4.043%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.007%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 5.004%
USA dollar index: 102.83 DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.10 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.30 UP 1 AND 30/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 366.38 PTS OR 1.07%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 114.33 PTS OR 0.75%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.31 UP 1.13 PTS (7.97)%
GLD: $177.31 DOWN 0.53 OR 0.30%
SLV/ $20.83 DOWN .38 OR 1.79%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Good ‘Job’ News Sparks Bad-News-Battering For Bonds, Big-Tech, Banks, Bullion, & Bitcoin
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 04:00 PM
A slew of positive labor market data (and an upside surprise for ISM Services – even though Services PMI slipped) was just enough ‘good’ news to be bad for markets… all markets.
US labor market data has serially surprised to the upside in recent weeks. So much so in fact that in the face of The Fed’s tightening, the jobs data is now at its most positive since 2012…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal today as the entire US equity complex was dumped on the good jobs news. After Europe closed, the machines managed to lift the majors well off their lows with Nasdaq and The S&P leading the rebound. However, they all ended lower on the day…
Notably, there has been a regime shift in the stock market’s response to higher rates with Defensives outperforming Cyclicals…
Source: Bloomberg
For context, the 2Y yield is unchanged since right before SVB’s collapse… and the S&P is up around 400 points…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were higher across the curve today but the action was very mixed with the belly underperforming and the wings (2Y and 30Y ending up the least ugly horse in the glue factory)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield broke back above 4.00% and 2Y yield smashed back above 5.00% running the stops above pre-SVB cycle highs before fading back lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Intraday, the 2Y yield reached its highest since July 2006…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve immediately crashed back near its most inverted levels of the cycle. But that didn’t last long as the short-end was bid and the curve actually ended steeper on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y mortgage rate surged this week to its highest since November…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended marginally higher after fading back from the huge gappy spike after the jobs data…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin kneejerked higher overnight (topping $31,500) before reversing all those gains and some, testing back below $30,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold puked back near last week’s lows…
Oil prices ended marginally higher after puking on the jobs data then ramping on inventory draws…
Finally, Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello dropped a totally striking chart earlier this morning. Essentially, he explains, financial markets had front-loaded the Fed tightening cycle.
Financial conditions are in the same place today as they were when the target rate was just 0.75% (before the Fed started blasting away in 75 bps clips).
The moral of the story here: the long and variable lags of tighter policy may not be SO threatening anymore (famous last words, we know).
b) THIS MORNING TRADING/
Strong Jobs & Hawkish FedSpeak Spark Early Chaos Across Markets
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 08:54 AM
Soaring ADP employment data and tumbling continuing claims are not what The Fed wants to see, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan unleashed the hawkish hammer, refinforcing her belief that more restrictive policy is needed for FOMC to reach its goals.
Putting it all together, markets swung chaotically.
Stocks plunged…
Bond yields spiked with 2Y above 5.00%…
The 2Y Yield spiked back above 5.00% (and above the pre-SVB highs), back to its highest since June 2007…
The yield curve crashed…
Gold plunged…
Oil dropped…
Bitcoin pumped and dumped…
Good news is bad news again and stocks seem to suddenly be aware that higher rates are bad for long duration assets.
end
Always a garbage report: they are always extremely bullish on their data
(zerohedge)
WTF! ADP Reports Massive Surge In Employment In June
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 08:20 AM
The US economy added a stunning 497k jobs in June, according to ADP’s Employment Report. That’s more than double the 225k expectation…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest monthly jump since Feb 2022.
Job creation surged in June, led by consumer-facing services. Leisure and hospitality, trade and transportation, and education and health services showed strong gains. Still, the market was fragmented, with manufacturing, information, and finance showing declines.
Bear in mind that ADP has under-estimated the official BLS data for 9 of the last 11 months (and 14 of the last 17 months)…
Source: Bloomberg
“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”
On the bright side (for The Fed), wage growth slowed:
- Job stayers saw a year-over-year pay increase of 6.4 percent, down from 6.6 percent in May.
- For job changers, pay gains slowed for the 12th straight month, to 11.2 percent, the slowest pace of growth since October 2021.
It should be no surprise that wage growth is slowing since almost all job growth is leisure/hospitality and trade/utilities, while high-paying Information, finance and professional jobs all declined.
Finally, claims – coming up next – are strongly diverging from this optimistic ADP perspective…
Source: Bloomberg
But, hey, a 3%-handle on ‘unemployment’ is good enough for the Biden administration… even if it’s not helping The Fed ease off.
This huge surge is not at all what The Fed wants to see.
END
II) USA DATA/
Initial jobless claims rebound higher
(zerohedge)
Initial Claims Rebound From Juneteenth Decline, Continuing Jobless Claims Lowest Since Feb
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 08:35 AM
After unexpectedly dropping in the prior week – allegedly due to Juneteenth adjustments – initial jobless claims were expected to rebound higher last week (despite the unexpected surge in ADP employment data) and they did. 248,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment claims last week (up from 236k, revised lower – the prior week). On a NSA basis, claims erased all of the ‘improvement’ of the prior week…
Source: Bloomberg
However, continuing claims continue to drift lower (at 1.72mm from 1.733mm last week)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the lowest continuing claims print since Feb 2023.
The apparent decoupling of initial vs continuing claims could be more of a rotation (as we noted in the ADP report) from high- to low-paying jobs.
end
Still down: another big factor that will hurt manufacturing is cost pressures are picking up
(zerohedge)
US Services Sector Surveys FUBAR: PMI “Cost Pressures Picked Up” & ISM Prices Lowest Since March 2020
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 10:06 AM
Following the tumble in US Manufacturing sector surveys, S&P Global reports that the US Services sector deteriorated marginally in June (to 54.4 from 54.9 in May), but did improve modestly intramonth from the 54.1 flash print. The ISM Services print was expected to rise modestly in June, but instead it soared to 53.9 (vs 51.2 exp). All of this comes amid a surge in positive macro surprises…
Source: Bloomberg
One of these things is not like the other…
S&P Global reports that cost pressures picked up, as a second successive fall in cost burdens at manufacturers was offset by the steepest rise in service sector costs recorded since January. But ISM says the opposite with Prices dropping to the lowest since March 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“June saw encouraging resilience of the US services economy, which helped offset a renewed contraction of manufacturing output to ensure the overall pace of economic growth remained encouragingly solid.
The surveys signal GDP growth of just under 2% for the second quarter as a whole, albeit with June seeing some loss of momentum.
“Demand for services has remained surprisingly buoyant in the face of headwinds from the increased cost of living and higher interest rates, with spending still being supported by a post-pandemic tailwind for spending by consumers in particular. Higher interest rates and recent market gains are also boosting demand for some financial services.
“The worry is that, although selling price inflation has cooled further, June saw increased cost growth in the service sector, which has been the main area of inflation concern in recent months. Higher wages in particular are driving costs up, and could keep selling price inflation stubbornly elevated in the months ahead.”
So slowing economic growth and service sector inflation on the rise… not what Powell ordered!
END
Nothing but garbage numbers
(zerohedge)
Job Openings Tumble By 500K Even as Number Of Quits Unexpectedly Soars
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 10:36 AM
For those fascinated by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of mid-level employees are replaced by a cheap “bullshitting” AI algo, then today’s latest JOLTS report will come as a far smaller shock than the bizarre surge in job openings from one month ago. That’s because after unexpectedly surging by 575K in April following three months of sharp declines, the BLS reported that in May the number of job openings resumed its decline, sliding by 496K, to 9.824MM from an upward revised 10.320 million.
The number was also about 1.6 million below the 11.4 million from a year ago and below the consensus estimate of 9.9 million, a rare miss in a series which has been best known for decisively beating Wall Street’s expectations.
According to the BLS, the largest decreases in job openings were in health care and social assistance (-285,000), finance and insurance (-139,000), and other services (-78,000). Job openings increased in educational services (+45,000), state and local government education (+37,000), and federal government (+24,000).
The downward re-reversal in the job openings trend, meant that after rising to the highest since January 2023, in May the number of job openings was just 3.727 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the lowest since Sept 2021.
Said otherwise, after rising to 1.82 openings for every worker in April, in May the number tumbled to just 1.611, the lowest level since Oct 2021.
Yet even as the number of job openings finally resumed its downward slide, conflicting data remained and in May, the number of people quitting their jobs – an indicator traditionally associated with labor market strength as it shows workers are confident they can find a better wage elsewhere, unexpectedly surged soared above 4 million, a +250,000 increase in the month, the biggest monthly increase since Nov 2021. According to the BLS, the number of quits increased in health care and social assistance (+69,000) and in construction (+57,000).
And just in case the confusion wasn’t big enough, the number of hires also jumped in May, rising by 107K to 6.208MM.
Of course, as we have explained on many occasions before, none of the above data are credible for reasons we have discussed before but the simplest one is because the response rate of the JOLTS survey is stuck at a record low 31%. Which means that only those who actually have job openings to report do so, while two-thirds of employers are either non-responsive or their mail is quietly lost in the mail. while the only ones who do respond are those who tell the BLS what they know it wants to hear.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
The USA consumer is cash strapped:
(next two commentaries)
Savings: Quarter Of Americans Have Few, 1 In 10 Have None
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 10:40 PM
Americans today are lacking crucial savings needed for managing short-term emergencies and building long-term wealth.
As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, according to a rolling representative online survey among U.S. adults by YouGov, 27 percent of Americans had some savings below $1,000 as of May 2023, while 12 percent said they had no savings at all.
You will find more infographics at Statista
This is about as many people as those who volunteered to give answers about the status of their savings and had more than $1,000 in the bank. 18 percent said their saving were at least $1000 but under $10,000, while 11 percent each had $10,000 to $49,999 and $50,000 or more saved up. A substantial share of respondents – 17 percent – preferred not to answer.
The survey also found that U.S. women were much less likely to have (substantial) savings. Women’s wages are lower on average than men’s due to less pay for the same work, more work in low-paying or part-time positions and due to the so-called motherhood penalty – the missed wage increases and promotions women experience because they take more time off for child rearing. Additionally, women in the U.S. have higher student loan debt on average, also affecting savings negatively.
Married Americans were most likely to have big savings in the U.S., with 10 percent of them having put away $100,000 or more, compared to just 6 percent of widowed, 4 percent of partnered and 3 percent of single Americans. According to the Institute for Family Studies, the higher wealth of married Americans is due to a correlation of high education status and stable marriages. These marriages among the highly educated are also more likely to include two earners, which again increases the likelihood of big savings.
In the OECD, Americans saved the 7th highest amounts of money but had only the 15th highest savings rate in 2020.
This shows that Americans, who have the highest disposable incomes in the OECD, are simply not saving as much of them as people in other developed nations despite opportunity to do so. Since the pandemic, U.S. savings rates have dropped even more.
END
‘Something Just Snapped’: Consumers Panic Search “Pawn Shop Near Me”
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 07:45 AM
Cash-strapped Americans are panic-searching “pawn shop near me.” The search trend spiked to a record high at the start of July and is an ominous sign the consumer might be pawning items or selling things that were possibly bought during the Covid boom to raise quick money amid the worst inflation storm in a generation.
Let’s begin by analyzing Google search data for “pawn shop near me.” The search trend started surging in January and exploded higher in the last few months to record highs just days ago.
Interest in the search trend is nationwide. Some of the most interest is in the Deep South.
Google provides related search trends that are all in “breakout” territory, including “pawn shop,” “open pawn shop near me,” “pawn shop open,” and “cash pawn shop near me.”
Perhaps ‘Bidenomics’ isn’t working. Consumers, who’ve endured more than two years of negative real wage growth while depleting savings and racking up record amounts of credit card debt in the highest interest rate in a generation, are tapping new lifelines by panic selling items for cash. Think about all those stay-at-home purchases consumers made during the pandemic…
This could be more evidence the consumer is cracking. Companies, such as Cheerios maker General Mills and Walgreens Boots Alliance, have recently warned about a weakening consumer. Goldman’s Rich Privorosky told clients last month, “Something is not quite adding up on the consumer” and asked, “Have we just run out of excess savings and are we returning to replenishing savings?”
END
CRE delinquency just getting started:
(WolfRichter)
CRE Nightmare For CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Suffers Biggest 6-Month Spike Ever
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 01:40 PM
Authored by Wolf Richter via WOLF STREET,
It’s just the Beginning. And it’s structural. Variable-rate CRE mortgages and much higher rates just speed up the process…
After blowing through the pandemic with no more than a squiggle, the delinquency rate of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) backed by office properties jumped to 4.5% by loan balance in June, up from 1.6% just six months ago in December 2022, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyses CMBS.
Office mortgages that had been packaged into CMBS went through a horrendous default cycle following the Financial Crisis, with the delinquency rate topping out at over 10% in 2012/2013.
But this current six-month 2.9-percentage-point spike from 1.6% to 4.5% is the fastest six-month spike in Trepp’s data going back to 2000.
So this is going to be interesting because we’re just at the beginning of a massive structural change – not a temporary blip – that is impacting office towers; turns out, companies have figured out they won’t ever need this vast amount of vacant office space.
Trepp considers a loan “delinquent” after the penalty-free 30-day grace period ends and the borrower still hasn’t caught up with the interest payment.
This delinquency rate does not include properties that are still paying interest but are past due on paying off the mortgage on maturity date. This includes the interest-only mortgages, when the whole amount is due at maturity, and mortgages with a balloon payment at maturity. As long as landlords are making interest payments, Trepp doesn’t consider the mortgages delinquent, but tracks mortgages that are past their maturity date separately.
For example, Trepp’s overall delinquency rate for all types of CMBS rose to 3.90% in June. Including the loans that were past their maturity date but were still paying interest, the delinquency rate would have risen to 4.66%.
CMBS have real advantages. They allow lenders, such as banks, to sell high-risk commercial mortgages during times of low interest rates to yield-chasing investors, such as bond funds, life insurers, etc. For banks, these mortgages might be too risky to keep on their books.
So they package them, sometimes just one big mortgage, but often several or many mortgages, into a pool of mortgages that then gets structured into different slices that investors buy, with the junk-rated slices taking the first losses in return for slightly higher yields. The top-rated slices have an A-rating or AA-rating, solidly investment grade (here’s my cheat sheet on bond credit ratings by rating agency), with the idea that the lowest rated slices will absorb any losses while the top-rated slices remain unscathed.
The mortgages – as we have seen in the current wave of defaults, including those where the landlord has just walked away from the property – are often variable-rate. Landlords liked variable-rate mortgages because they offer a lower interest rate, compared to fixed rate mortgages. And investors liked them because when rates go up, investors get a higher return, and the market value of the mortgage is largely protected.
But when rates go up a lot, as they have done since March 2022, the interest payments go up a lot, and by late last year, these interest payments began to double, and suddenly the building doesn’t pencil out anymore because rents, especially at office towers that are partially vacant, won’t cover the interest payments.
And then landlords might walk away and lose the equity. And CMBS holders end up with a defaulted mortgage and an office tower whose price at a sale will be far below the loan value. We have discussed the revenge of variable-rate office mortgages here.
And so even landlords – giant landlords such as private equity firm Blackstone and private equity firm Brookfield – have defaulted on the mortgages and then walked away from the property. They lose the equity in the property, and the lenders then have to sell the office tower for whatever they can get.
But whatever they can get for older office towers is a lot lot less than anyone had imagined a few years ago when the CMBS were issued. The losses on the mortgages for CMBS holders are huge, such as 88% and 82% by two Class-A office towers in Houston, or even a total loss, with the proceeds of the foreclosure sale just paying for fees and expenses, which happened with the vacant 46-story former One AT&T Center in downtown St. Louis. Two class-A office towers in San Francisco sold at 70% off the pre-pandemic price estimates, though they didn’t involve mortgages. Other office towers were sold with 40% to 50% in losses.
So these older office towers create some serious investor-bloodletting – but it’s thinly spread around the globe, from the bond fund in your portfolio to a pension fund in a foreign country.
And it’s structural, not a market blip; it’s an issue that will have to be dealt with over many years, such as by tearing down office towers or by converting them into residential buildings where possible.
Even lower interest rates won’t make vacant or half-vacant office towers economically viable. Markets, if allowed to do the dirty work, are good at pricing those situations, and providing a low cost-base for developers with an appetite for risk to redevelop those properties, at the expense of existing investors.
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Censorship has just been handed a severe blow to Biden. This should open up the censorship of COVID and the vaccines and many other government interferences. Law suits should start flying
(zerohedge)
As AG Landry Takes Victory Lap, Matt Taibbi Taunts “Orwellian Ministry Of Truth”: Take That, Internet Censors!
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 05:40 PM
On Tuesday, the Fourth of July, a federal judge in Louisiana kicked the Biden administration’s censorship complex in the teeth – ruling that federal officials (with limited exception) can no longer communicate or collude with big tech companies to censor “protected speech.”
The order prohibits Biden officials from “collaborating, coordinating, partnering, switchboarding, and/or jointly working with” key academic groups behind various censorship campaigns, including the Election Integrity Partnership, a coalition of researchers led by the Stanford Internet Observatory and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public.
This is a huge win for free speech – and comes on the heels of Twitter Files revelations of government influence and control over various hot button narratives they wished to steer. And of all people who deserve to take a victory lap – journalist Matt Taibbi and Louisiana AG Andrew Baily have opined on the ruling.
First, Taibbi drops his thoughts via Racket News…
Here’s how federal judge Terry Doughty yesterday described the digital censorship controversy at which pundits a half-year now have repeatedly rolled eyes, dismissed, and mocked as a nothingburger: “If the allegations made by Plaintiffs are true, the present case arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history.”
Doughty then ordered a sweeping halt to the censorship schemes outlined in both the extant Missouri v. Biden lawsuit and in the Twitter Files. Critics who’ve been snickering about this issue might want to read this 155-page ruling now, and ask themselves if the current Supreme Court would or would not agree with Doughty. Still think this is a nothingburger?
With this ruling in the Missouri v. Biden censorship case, Doughty went out of his way on the Fourth of July, to issue a stern rebuke at a conga line of government officials, many of them characters in the Twitter Files. Racket readers will recognize names like Elvis Chan and Laura Dehmlow (of the FBI), Jen Easterly and Brian Scully (of the Department of Homeland Security), Laura Rosenberger (Special Assistant to the President, and one of the creators of Hamilton 68) and Daniel Kimmage (of the Global Engagement Center), who were all just ordered to get the hell off the First Amendment’s lawn. Paraphrasing, Doughty enjoined them from:
- meeting with social-media companies for the purpose of pressuring or inducing in any manner the removal or suppression of protected free speech;
- flagging posts on social-media platforms and/or forwarding to social-media companies urging the same;
- collaborating with the Election Integrity Partnership, the Virality Project, the Stanford Internet Observatory, or any “like project” or group for the same purpose;
- threatening or coercing social-media companies to remove protected free speech.
The New York Times, which instantly wrung its hands and stressed the ruling could “curtail efforts to fight disinformation,” grumblingly handed blame to the Twitter Files, without naming them of course, and mislabeling it as a partisan enterprise:
Elon Musk has echoed Republican arguments, releasing internal company documents to chosen journalists suggesting what they claimed was collusion between company and government officials. Though that remains far from proven, some of the documents Mr. Musk disclosed ended up in the lawsuit’s arguments.
The investigation led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry and Missouri’s Andrew Bailey, produced documents showing overt government requests to censor people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a White House official expressing frustration to Facebook that they weren’t “removing bad information from search,” and emails in which a Facebook official pleads with the White House to understand that they’re already “reducing the virality” of “often-true content” that might promote vaccine hesitancy, among many other things. The Attorneys General likewise scored depositions with people like Dr. Anthony Fauci, and confronted him with documents showing Facebook sending his office updates about how “we are expanding the list of false claims we will remove.”
Was this illegal? Unconsititional? Did it show a pattern of mighty tech companies like Facebook and Twitter acting like they were reporting to federal officials like Fauci on content moderation? I knew what I thought it looked like, but what judges or a jury might say, who knew?
Subscribers to Racket News can read the rest here…
* * *
Meanwhile, Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey dissected Tuesday’s ruling in an epic Twitter thread. Enjoy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/taibbi-take-internet-censors
END
What a crazy ad!
(zerohedge)
Instead Of Hot Chicks In Bikinis, Bud Light Goes With ‘Grunting Men’ In Rehab Fail
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 03:00 PM
Bud Light’s latest ad is getting slammed online as the beer brand keeps garnering angry comments and a huge number of dislikes, with the company facing ire from both sides of the social aisle.
As Naveen Anthrapully reports as The Epoch Times, the latest ad, “Backyard Grunts with Travis Kelce”, released on the weekend of July 4, features Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce with a group of men grunting as they crack open a can of Bud Light.
On YouTube, it has gotten 2,187 comments, 256 likes and over 11,000 dislikes. Some of the comments on the ad are quite scathing.
“So you went from a man pretending to be a little girl to now showing manly grunting people … to swing it the other way? You gotta lock your marketing team in a room with rabid dogs and toss the key,” said one user.
“This is such an entertaining horror show!! Bud Light continues to push above and beyond the Envelope of Depraved Desperation & Pathetic Pleading!!” said another user.
“LOL Kelce didn’t even touch the can. Come on, Bud Light, you guys are losin … Still,” one user observed.
Bud Light’s Twitter post celebrating the July 4th weekend also attracted massive backlash.
“It’s 4th of July weekend, enjoy some beer,” said the post, which got over 26,000 comments and just around 4,500 likes.
“My family always called it Independence Day. This year I guess it’s independence from politically active beer too,” Tom Pappert, editor-in-chief at Valiant News, stated in a July 1 tweet.
“I don’t drink beer. But if I did, it would NOT be Bud Light. We didn’t forget!” Chaya Raichik, the creator of Libs of TikTok, stated in a tweet and garnered nearly 2,000 likes.
Permanent Dent in Sales
Bud Light turned into a boycott target after partnering with transgender social media personality Dylan Mulvaney in a promotional campaign in April. Since then, sales have cratered, market capitalization declined, and Bud Light-maker Anheuser-Busch InBev is caught in a tough spot trying to regain people’s confidence in the brand.
Data from Bump Williams Consulting and NielsenIQ show that sales for Bud Light was down 28.5 percent year over year for the week ended June 17, according to the New York Post. Other Anheuser-Busch brands, including Michelob Ultra and Budweiser, have also seen year-over-year losses.
Between April 3 and July 3, Anheuser-Busch’s market capitalization declined from $133.68 billion to $115.38 billion—a loss of more than $18 billion.
During this period, the company’s stock fell from €61.16 to €52.48, an over 14 percent decline.
In a recent note, Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett said that the recent underperformance of Anheuser-Busch implies a “permanent reduction” in the company’s business in the United States, according to Barron’s.
“Our proprietary survey data suggest these headwinds are likely to fade even if we do not expect the U.S. business ever to fully recover from its current challenges.”
Bud Light has also lost the number-one position in the U.S. beer market following the marketing debacle.
Meanwhile, Luxembourg-based Ardagh Group, a major contractor for Bud Light, is shutting down two of its glass-bottling plants in Louisiana and North Carolina amid declining sales for the beer.
Leftist Backlash
As Bud Light deals with the disastrous aftermath of its pro-LGBT campaign, Mr. Mulvaney has now come out slamming the company for abandoning the transgender activist while left-wing media are blaming the firm for trying to appeal to its conservative audience.
“I patiently waited for things to get better,” Mulvaney said in a recent Instagram Reel about the backlash. “But surprise, they haven’t really, and I was waiting for the brand to reach out to me, but they never did.”
“For a company to hire a trans-person and then not publicly stand by them is worse, in my opinion, than not hiring a trans-person at all because it gives customers permission to be as transphobic and hateful as they want,” Mulvaney insisted.
Left-wing outlet Jezebel ran an article on Bud Light last month with the headline, “Bud Light Is Embracing Country Music and Football to Try and Win Back Transphobes.”
A former president of sales and distribution for Anheuser-Busch, Anson Frericks, has called for the company’s U.S. CEO Brendan Whitworth to step down from the post due to his inability to solve the Mulvaney fiasco.
In a write-up at Daily Mail, Mr. Frericks criticized the company for not providing an appropriate response to Mulvaney’s claim that Bud Light abandoned the activist following the controversy.
Bud Light’s response to Mulvaney’s claim was that “as we move forward, we will focus on what we do best—brewing great beer for everyone and earning our place in moments that matter to our consumers.”
Frericks called the response “weak and indecisive … What does that mean? Absolutely nothing. And it will only deepen the chasm between the brand and its customers.”
He called Mulvaney’s criticism of Bud Light a sign of the activist cutting ties with the brand, “something Whitworth should have had the wisdom to do weeks ago.”
USA// COVID
SWAMP STORIES
Secret Service Confirms Cocaine Was Found In West Wing Phone Cubby Hours After Hunter Biden Visit
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 – 05:20 PM
Update (5:15pm): The puzzle, wrapped in an engima, inside a bag of blow surrounding the “mystery” cocaine found in the White House is drawing in some of the world’s most cunning detectives and brilliant minds.
One day after leaked radio intercepts revealed that a “mystery” substance was found over the weekend inside the White House and – after leading to a brief evacuation over hazmat fears – was “cocaine like”, the US Secret Service on Wednesday confirmed what everyone already knew – the powdery substance found inside the White House over the weekend is cocaine.
While little new was revealed, secret service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said that the cocaine was discovered in an area of the West Wing lobby where individuals can store their phones. The lobby is “a heavily traveled area” regularly accessed by both visitors and staff, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday.
And now, the hunt for the coke fiend begins.
“The president thinks this is incredibly important to get to the bottom of,” she added, and surely every able-bodied FBI agent is on top of it.
The good news is that since every visitor to the White House is logged and every square inch of the premises is under constant video surveillance, the mystery won’t last long…
… unless of course the White House webcam operator was previously in charge of the the Jeffrey Epstein suicide cams all of which “broke” just before the famous pedophile “killed himself.”
And in totally separate news, Hunter Biden joined his father and other members of the Biden family at the White House Tuesday just hours after the cocaine was found, to take in the Fourth of July fireworks following a weekend getaway to Camp David.
President Biden and first lady Jill Biden were accompanied on the balcony of the South Portico by Hunter Biden, his son Beau Jr., first daughter Ashley Biden and other members of the first family.
“Welcome to your house, the White House. We’re just rentin’,” the 80-year-old president told military families, National Park Service staff and their families, and members of his administration and their families during brief remarks Tuesday night. He was also addressing the Chinese who were listening in on various bugs distributed across the residence.
Hunter Biden, who has not only acknowledged a prior addiction to crack cocaine but has repeatedly recorded himself smoking, snorting and otherwise ingesting the substance on dozens of occasions and who recently pled guilty to fluff misdemeanor charges over tax evasion and struck a deal on a gun charge, was also on the White House grounds Friday before heading off to Camp David with his father for the second weekend in a row.
Also today, the White House declined to say whether it would want to see a criminal prosecution if a specific individual were found to be responsible for bringing the cocaine into the complex, or whether staffers would face new drug tests or screening after the incident, for obvious reasons.
Biden was briefed by his staff about the progress of the investigation, Jean-Pierre even though there clearly isn’t any: after all, there can’t be progress if “law enforcement” has already decided it will never find this mythical cocaine mastermind; as for the bought and paid for liberal PR firms posing as a “press”, they have already got the memo to let it all blow over.
* * *
Earlier
The Secret Service on Tuesday confirmed rumors from the day earlier that it was investigating an “unknown item” found inside the White House library on Sunday, which was described in radio traffic as a cocaine-like substance.
“On Sunday evening, the White House complex went into a precautionary closure as officers from the Secret Service uniformed division investigated an unknown item found inside a work area,” Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement, adding that the D.C. fire department determined the substance did not present a threat… although it certainly could present Hunter Biden with hours of brand new video material for his infamous notebook.
In a dispatch with an 8:49 p.m. timestamp, a firefighter with the D.C. department’s hazardous materials team radioed the results of a test: “We have a yellow bar saying cocaine hydrochloride.”
The brief broadcast was logged on a website called openmhz.com, which allows people to listen to live and archived radio transmission from police and fire departments. One of the officials familiar with the investigation, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an open case, said the 8:49 transmission was from the White House call Sunday night. The official described the amount of the substance as small, which likely means that most of it had already been consumed.
The discovery came two days after recovering crack cocaine addict Hunter Biden was last seen at the White House; yet even so there appears to be some “mystery” as to how the cocaine got there.
The Biden family arrived back at the White House for Independence Day celebrations as the Secret Service continues to investigate the finding.
Secret Service spokesman Gulielmi said that President Joe Biden was not in the executive mansion when the substance was discovered.
“The DC fire department was called to evaluate and quickly determined the item to be non-hazardous. The item was sent for further evaluation and an investigation into the cause and manner of how it entered the White House is pending,” he said, laughably hinting that there was some “confusion” as to how crack got inside the Blowden Biden family’s DC estate as it is in the process of being auctioned off to Beijing. Here’s a thought: since Hunter has a habit of recording his every close encounter with crack cocaine, just check his cell phone’s latest video recordings.
In its report, ABC notes that “Cocaine hydrochloride can be used as an anesthetic or to control bleeding, but it is also considered to have effects similar to crack cocaine, according to the study National Library of Medicine National Center for Biotechnology Information”, which suggests that the type of cocaine found was of a particular variety especially near and dear to Hunter’s heart.
“The physiological and psychoactive effects of cocaine are similar regardless of whether it is in the form of cocaine hydrochloride or crack cocaine (cocaine base),” the study says. You do learn something new every day.
The “item” was sent to a Secret Service lab for further testing, the sources said.
The White House on Tuesday referred reporter questions about the matter to the Secret Service, because what else could they say: “to pay for Hunter’s crack addition, Joe had to sell even the Resolute Desk to Beijing.” Of course, that’s a silly joke: after all, just imagine what America’s international allies – and enemies – would think if any of this Jerry Springer Special, live from the White House, turned out to be even remotely true…
The Biden’s cocaine antics take place just days after the younger Biden reached a plea deal with Justice Department prosecutors to avoid jail time after lying on a federal form to purchase a firearm. He checked a box claiming that he did not use and was not addicted to illegal substances – a fact that would disqualify him from buying the gun. The form contradicting the timelines and claims made in Hunter Biden’s own memoir.
Biden critics and conservative decried Hunter’s plea deal, claiming that anyone other than the president’s son would receive jail time for the same offense. The deal also saw Hunter plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors which would have been a felony – and meant prison time – for anyone else but the president’s crack and whore-addicted son.
Come to think of it, there was plenty of reasons for Hunter to be celebrating in the aptly named China White house.
end
The truth on the COVID vaccines is coming out. Now Bill Ackman is asking important questions about the vaccines and he is promoting RFK jr
(EpochTimes)
Wall Street Investor Bill Ackman Says RFK Jr. Is Asking “Important Questions” About COVID Vaccines
THURSDAY, JUL 06, 2023 – 10:50 AM
Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,
For years, Democratic presidential candidate hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has raised serious questions about the safety of certain vaccine ingredients, an issue once the domain of small groups of parents that became a national issue with the onset of COVID-19.
During the pandemic, Mr. Kennedy also spoke out against the COVID-19 vaccines, personally and through supporting the Children’s Health Defense, where he served as chairman and chief legal counsel before stepping aside to focus on his campaign in April.
When Mr. Kennedy announced that he would campaign for the 2024 presidential elections, media coverage labeled him an “anti-vaxxer” and painted him as a heretic of conventional science.
When billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman began retweeting clips of Mr. Kennedy’s interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, it helped to propel Mr. Kennedy as the face of a legitimized vaccine-questioning movement. Ackman also offered to donate $150,000 if pediatrician Peter Hotez (who was critical of the interview) debated Kennedy about vaccines on Rogan’s show. Dr. Hotez declined.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Dr. Peter Hotez in file photos. (Lisa Lake/Getty Images for SiriusXM; John Mone/AP Photo)
‘Vaccinate every American’
In 2021, Mr. Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, criticized officials for not doing more to vaccinate the elderly against COVID-19 while suggesting fellow billionaires Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos could help fund logistics to “vaccinate every American. The time is now!”
It’s not an understatement to say Mr. Ackman’s statements are influential. During the onset of the pandemic, he sounded the alarm on the economy with an ominous line: “Hell is coming.”
The market dropped 6 percent, and the uproar he caused had him apologizing to investment executives soon thereafter, according to CBS News.
The billionaire himself had come out of the crisis with $2.6 billion in profits, according to Forbes Lists.
And now his views have changed.
“Science is an unending search for the truth, and this ongoing search is critical, as what was once deemed to be settled science is often revised or reversed with the passage of time,” Mr. Ackman wrote on Twitter in a lengthy explanation accompanied by a video of Tucker Carlson promoting Mr. Kennedy.
“For example, consider how the science of human nutrition has changed dramatically over time, or hypotheses about the causes for Alzheimer’s. And it wasn’t that long ago that doctors were quoted in ads recommending cigarettes as good for your health.”
“@RobertKennedyJr and others have raised important questions about the safety of some vaccines and have sought explanations for the dramatic increases in the incidence of childhood allergies, autism, and other health issues. These are good questions that have not been adequately answered. And I say this from the perspective of someone who is fully vaccinated along with my kids.”
Mr. Ackman preceded the explanation with a seemingly obligatory “for context, I am pro-science,” and encouraged others to seek the answers Mr. Kennedy has demanded for years.
“His concerns are ones shared by millions of parents and others. Rather than censor RFK and the skeptics, shouldn’t we instead seek to understand the causes for the massive increase in autism and allergic diseases in our children over the last 30 or so years? If vaccines are not the cause for increased autism and other allergenic conditions, then what is the cause or causes?”
He pointed out, too, that while he disagreed with Mr. Carlson on many issues, the episode on Mr. Kennedy’s work was one he recommended.
“When even your worst enemy has an insight you agree with, I have often found it has a higher probability of being true. I think you will find this approach will make it easier to get closer to the truth in an uncertain world.”
It was one of many clips on Mr. Kennedy’s work that he circulated.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces his 2024 presidential bid and Democratic primary challenge to President Joe Biden in Boston, Mass., on April 19, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)
In a recent interview on CNBC, Mr. Ackman explained why Mr. Kennedy had convinced him.
“I listened to RFK on several podcasts and a town hall and thought he raised important issues about vaccines and other issues that were worth learning more about,” he said.
“I don’t feel like we’ve fully answered questions about the safety of all vaccines, particularly more recently approved vaccines, and our approach to determining their safety and efficacy.”
He did not pledge to back Mr. Kennedy as a candidate.
“I don’t yet know, but I think he is asking important questions and raising interesting issues that are worthy of discussion and debate,” he said.
“It depends on the alternatives at the time of the general election.”
He did not commit to supporting President Joe Biden either.
“My strong preference is that he announces now that he won’t run to create a more open field for other candidates,” Mr. Ackman said.
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report July 6, 2023 Issue 7026 | Independent View of the News |
| The Caixin China Services PMI for June declined to 53.9 from 57.1; 56.2 expected. This is the weakest reading since January. The Composite PMI declined to 52.5 from 55.6. The final estimate of the Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI for June fell to 54.0 from 54.2; the Composite PMI fell to 52.1 from 52.3. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI for June declined to 49.9 from 50.3, which was also expected. The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI dipped to 52.0 from 52.4, which was also expected. HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI® Eurozone economy stalls in June as services growth wanes and factory production fallsHCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 49.9 (May: 52.8). 6-month low.HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 52.0 (May: 55.1). 5-month low.Disappointing end to second quarter after robust growth in both April and Mayhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a202d464cebb414eb8bcf81178cec797 US Economic Data released on WednesdayMay Factory Orders 0.3% m/m, 0.8% expected, 0.3% from 0.4% priorMay Factory Orders Ex-Trans -0.5% m/m -0.6% from -0.2% priorMay Durable Goods Orders 1.8% m/m, 1.7% expected and priorMay Durable Goods Ex-Trans 0.7% m/m 0.6% expected and priorMay Durable Goods Nondefense Ex-Air 0.7% m/m, 0.6% expected and priorMay Durable Goods Shipments 0.3% m/m, 0.2% prior ESUs traded moderately negative but sideways during Asian trading. They broke lower after China closed at 2 ET. After a modest rally on the European opening, ESUs traded sideways, in a tight range until they broke down at 5 ET. ESUs hit a bottom of 4466.25 at 8:10 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening then began. It accelerated after the NYSE opening. ESUs hit a daily high of 4492.75 at 11:09 ET. ESUs then sank until 12:36 ET. The ensuing rally was traders getting long for a hoped for dovish FOMC Minutes from June 14. FOMC Minutes from June 14 HighlightsAlmost all Fed officials expect more rate hikes in 2023Almost all Fed Officials saw pause as ‘appropriate or acceptable’Almost all on FOMC saw high inflation as the key factor in the outlookOfficials saw downside growth risks, upside unemployment risksCore inflation has not shown sustained easingBank stress has recededSome favored hike but went along with pauseStaff still sees mild recession but possibility of avoiding downturnhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230614.pdf The afternoon rally ended with the release of the FOMC Minutes because the FOMC did not toss the hoped for dovish bone. After a modest decline, ESUs and stocks went inert until a majority of traders realized that the minutes showed the Fed was far less united about the pause than thought. ESUs sank. This passage was troubling to bulls: “Some participants remarked that the effect of high interest rates on the housing sector appeared to be bottoming out, with home sales, builder sentiment, and new construction all having improved a little since the start of the year.” After dropping 13 handles to 4475.00, ESUs bottomed at 14:22 ET. Despite the non-accommodating FOMC Minutes, traders remain unremittingly bullish and there is too much juice in the system. So, ESUs jumped to 4489.00 by 15:07 ET. After inching a tad higher, ESUs retreated into the close. With stocks being sold globally due to disappointing PMIs in Asian and Europe, and disappointing US May Durable Goods data, you’d think bonds would rally on recession angst and defensive asset allocation. However, bonds were -1 9/32 at 13:00 ET. They fell to -1 13/32 after the FOMC Minutes. Positive aspects of previous session The NY Fang+ Index posted a moderate gain ESUs surged from 8:10 ET until 11:09 ET. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered Oil and gasoline rallied sharply The FOMC Minutes from June 14 were more hawkish than expected Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is a short-term top developing? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4445.81 Previous session High/Low: 4454.06; 4436.61 @Jkylebass: Vice Director of the Wuhan Institute of Virology admits being given 4 strains of the coronavirus in early 2019 that were all designed in the lab. Chao then admits to be targeting The World Military Games participants in September 2019. This lab is and has always been directed by the Chinese military. The PLA runs the lab and its clear intention is to include the design of bioweapons amongst its other objectives. https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1676588825341042688 FDA blasted for ‘misleading’ mRNA COVID vaccine labels as ‘sudden death’ research mounts Even FDA-funded research acknowledges “safety signal” for serious heart inflammation in 12-17 year-olds. Agency ignores federal law by demanding proven “causality,” medical researchers claim https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fda-blasted-misleading-mrna-covid-vaccine-labels-sudden-death-research France Has Fallen: After 1,000 Buildings Burnt, 5,600 Vehicles Destroyed, 3,300 Arrests, Government Vows to Crack Down – On Free Speech – 89% of Frenchmen condemn the violence committed against security forces, leaving left-wing riot apologists in the tiny minority… The French government and social media companies “have taken a number of measures” to change the algorithms of social media websites to prevent “images of violence going viral” he said. Barrot proposed a government committee for internet censorship to prevent the truth about the largest race riots in European history from being seen. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/07/france-has-fallen-after-1000-buildings-burnt-5600/ @WallStreetSilv: The National Assembly in France adopted article 3 of the Justice bill which authorizes the authorities to remotely activate the cameras and microphones of telephones or other connected devices without the knowledge of the persons concerned. 80 votes for, 24 against https://newsinfrance.com/justice-law-the-activation-of-remote-telephones-approved-by-the-national-assembly/ @AFP: Facebook behemoth Meta on Wednesday launched Threads, a text based rival to Twitter, creating the biggest threat yet to the embattled platform owned by Elon Musk. After the NYSE close yesterday, NY Fed President Williams said it might take a year or two to feel the peak effect of Fed monetary policy. Yes, Virginia, this is a veiled admission that the Fed doesn’t understand what its monetary policy is doing; let alone what it will do in the near and intermediate future. Williams also stated, “I agree we have more work to do… Based on what we know, we don’t think that we are done…” Today – Traders will try to force stocks higher; but they might exit in the afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s June Employment Report. Another strong NFP would induce money markets to price in more Fed hikes. The markets will remain thin and easily manipulated due to holiday week absenteeism. ESUs are -4.50 at 21:40 ET. The US 10-yr (3.934%) is 13bps from a 15.5-year high yield! Expected economic data: June ADP Employment Change 225k; Initial Jobless Claims 245k, Continuing Claims 1.75m; June S&P Global US Services PMI 54.1; June ISM Services PMI 51.3; May JOLTS Job Openings 9.9m; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 8:45 ET S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4239; 100-day MA: 4136; 150-day MA: 4079; 200-day MA: 4007 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,646; 100-day MA: 33,369; 150-day MA: 33,464; 200-day MA: 32,947 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4218.63 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4363.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4414.22 triggers a sell signal Biden admin released migrant on terrorist watchlist, took two weeks to arrest: DHS inspector general https://justthenews.com/accountability/watchdogs/biden-admin-released-migrant-terrorist-watchlist-took-two-weeks-arrest-dhs White House cocaine culprit unlikely to be found: Law enforcement official http://ow.ly/m3r4104N6vn Ex-Navy Seal @CarlHigbie: So in the most secure building in the world, cameras, security, screening, visitor logs etc…you have no idea who brought COCAINE in??? I call BULLS**T Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Cocaine update: Secret Service is conducting DNA and fingerprint testing as part of their investigation – they would not estimate how long it will take. They are also reportedly reviewing visitor logs and surveillance. Within several weeks, there has been public nudity and cocaine at the White House – and there was twerking for Easter! The Big Guy did pledge to restore decency and dignity to the White House. @TheBabylonBee: Biden Promise to Restore Decency in White House Fulfilled as Crack Found Was of Highest Quality https://buff.ly/3pun28a Prosecutors added at last minute to Hunter Biden probe: Whistleblower team Prosecutors who approved a probation-only plea agreement for first son Hunter Biden apparently replaced veteran counselors late in the investigation, according to lawyers for an IRS whistleblower who oversaw key aspects of the case… Those veterans of the Delaware office’s investigation included Assistant US Attorney Lesley Wolf, as well as Weiss deputies Shawn Weede and Shannon Hanson, the IRS whistleblower told the House Ways and Means Committee in his May 26 testimony. Of the three prosecutors who did sign the Hunter plea documents — Special Assistant US Attorneys Leo Wise and Derek Hines and Assistant US Attorney Benjamin Wallace — none participated in the bulk of the investigation, one of Shapley’s attorneys told The Post… “It’s unclear why the prosecutors who worked on the case for years didn’t sign the government’s filings, but it raises serious questions about why and whether that best served the American people’s interests as opposed to Hunter Biden’s.”…https://trib.al/YrwpflJ @ggreenwald: In reporting on the ruling barring FBI and Biden officials from pressuring Big Tech to censor, the NYT says: “The issue of the government’s influence over social media has become increasingly partisan.” Yep: Dems want state censorship of the internet… Censorship is a weapon of the powerful, used only against the marginalized and against dissidents. That’s why you can easily recognize those on the side of establishment power: they’re always the ones indifferent about, if not supportive of, state and corporate censorship. | |
GREG HUNTER
I will see you on FRIDAY
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