GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $8.70 TO $1968.55

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.38   AT $24.78

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 169.25

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.74

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Bitcoin morning price:, $30,273 UP 371  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29774 DOWN 129 dollars

Platinum price closing  $958.90 DOWN  $17.20

Palladium price;     $1284.65 DOWN $23.80

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,592.95 DOWN 9/33 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1530.54 UP 2.35 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1769.28 UP 4.32 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,977.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/18/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/20/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED  

190 H BMO CAPITAL 77
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 61
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2  

JPMorgan stopped 0/27 contracts.

FOR JULY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT:  27 NOTICES FOR 2700 OZ  or  0.08398 TONNES

total notices so far: 2634 contracts for 263,400 oz (8.1828 tonnes)

FOR  JULY:

SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 4825 for 24,125,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER  DOWN $0.38  AT  THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 454.407 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2945 CONTRACTS TO 149,808 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL   $0.11 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 676 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH .  CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 676 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES. 

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.11). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3795 CONTRACTS.   WE HAD A HUGE 800 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 4 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 5.25 MILLION OZ.).  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 

A STRONG  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 850 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  HUGE 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 4 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING: 24.390 MILLION OZ + 5.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK:  NEW TOTAL 29.64 MILLION OZ// // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)  STRONG NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (676 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –214   CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 13,954 contracts:   OR 69.770 MILLION OZ  (1162 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  69.770 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 69.770 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2945  CONTRACTS WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.11 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 850  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF  16.110 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 4MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL + (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.25 MILLION OZ//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK:  5.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 24.390 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING + 5.25 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 29.64 MILLION   OZ./////  .. WE HAVE A HUGE  SIZED GAIN OF 3795 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A STRONG  676//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION TO CONTAIN SILVER PRICE’S RISE.  THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (676) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./

WE HAD 2  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  10,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR  SIZED 1993  CONTRACTS  TO 484,097 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  removed: 462  CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 1993 CONTRACTS)  DESPITE OUR TINY $0.65 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1026 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.233 TONNES//  + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1653 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $0.65 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 3795  OI CONTRACTS (11.26 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1627 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 484,097

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3620 CONTRACTS  WITH 1993 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1627 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3620 CONTRACTS OR 12.696 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1653 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1627 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1993) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4082 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1026TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 8.233 TONNES   ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE//4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1653 CONTRACTS 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  27,908 CONTRACTS OR 2,790,800 OZ OR 86.805 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2325 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  86.805 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  86.805/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.44% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES 

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  86.805 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED GAIN OF 1993  CONTRACTS OI TO  150,022 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 850  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT  850  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  850  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2945 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 850  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3620 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 18.975 MILLION OZ  

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.11 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.31 PTS OR 0.92%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 24.29 PTS OR 0.13%        /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 405.51 PTS OR 1.23 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  7.1659  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 7.1714 /Oil DOWN TO 75.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 79.71 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 1993 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 484,097 WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65 ON WEDNESDAY.  

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1627  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  AUGUST 1627 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1627 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 3620  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1627 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1993 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65//WEDNESDAY COMEX.   AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1653 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE. IT MAY BE TO NO AVAIL!!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JULY  (8.233) (NON  ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 8.233 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $0.65) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 3620 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT  THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. THE  TAS ISSUED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. THE MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY WAS USED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF  11.26 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1026 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 8.233 TONNES    //  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $0.65. 

WE HAD  – REMOVED  462      CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3620  CONTRACTS OR  362,000  OZ OR 11.26 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 212,100  fair

final gold volumes/yesterday   155,309   really bad

//JULY 20/ FOR THE JULY  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	32,247/452 OZ JPMorgan Brinks 1003 kilobars           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	27  notice(s) 2700 OZ 0.08398 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	33  contracts    3300 oz 0.1026 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	2634 notices 263,400  OZ 8.1928 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total customer deposits: 0 oz

we had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of JPMorgan:  32,215.302 oz 1002 kilobars

ii) out of Brinks 32.15 oz  ( one kilobar)

total withdrawals:  32,147.453 oz  1003 kilobars

Adjustments; 1// jpmorgan

dealer to customer:  385.812 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 60  contracts having LOST 52 contracts. We had 78 contracts served on Wednesday.  Thus we gained 26 contracts or an additional 3300 oz of gold will  stand at the comex.

AUGUST  LOST 10,888 contracts DOWN to 196,112 contracts 

SEPT gained 24 contracts to stand at 525

We had 27 contracts filed for today representing  2700  oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  27   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2636 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (60  CONTRACT)  minus the number of notices served upon today  27 x 100 oz per contract equals 264,700 OZ  OR 8.233 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the  JULY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (2634) x 100 oz +  (60) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (27)  x 100 oz) which equals  264,700 oz standing OR 8.233 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 8.233 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold:  1,871,558.348  OZ   58,18 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,242,714.568 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,832,521.052   (368.04  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,410,193.516 O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,960963 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.82 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

JULY 20

//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,957,470/040  oz Brinks HSBC Malca .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	2  CONTRACT(S)    (10,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	53 contracts  (265,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	4825 Contracts  (24,125,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 deposits customer account:

total customer deposits: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.936  million oz/276.118 million =50.72% of comex .//

Comex withdrawals 3

i) Out of Brinks  607,874.500 oz

ii) Out of  HSBC  600,605.840 oz: 

iii) Out of Malca:  748,949.700 oz 

total: 1,957,470.040  oz

adjustments: 1 customer to dealer Brinks

4944.14 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.379 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276.118 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 55   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 764  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 770 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED  6 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, 

AUGUST GAINED 114 CONTRACTS TO STAND  AT 843

SEPT HAS A GAIN  OF 2552 CONTRACTS UP TO 127,435

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 54,661  poor /

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 46,487  poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4825 x  5,000 oz = 24,125,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(55) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month:  4825 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (55) – number of notices served upon today (2 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 24.390 million oz  + 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS 5.25 MILLION OZ /NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 29.64 MILLION OZ..WE HAVE 35  MILLION OZ OF REGISTERED SILVER AT THE COMEX//

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES

JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.

JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES

JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44

GLD INVENTORY: 913.80 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//

JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 454.407 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Shrinkflation: You’re Paying More And Getting Less

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 06:35 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

We are all keenly aware of price inflation. We notice those rising prices every time we go into a store. But the inflation boogeyman is hitting you even harder than you realize.

Not only are you paying more for pretty much everything you buy, you’re getting less.

Literally.

It’s called shrinkflation.

Rising prices don’t just hit consumers. In fact, they impact producers first. As the cost of materials, labor and equipment goes up, companies feel the pinch. Eventually, they pass those costs on to their customers.

But raising prices is bad for business, so sometimes, companies find other ways to cut costs. They shrink packages or simply put less stuff in the same size box. While the price stays the same, you get less product.

Shrinkflation doesn’t show up in the CPI and consumers often don’t even notice, but the effect is the same as rising prices. You ultimately end up with less stuff. It is ninja inflation.

“Downsizing is really a sneaky price increase,”  former Massachusetts assistant attorney general Greg Dworsky told NPR during an interview.

“Consumers tend to be price-conscious. But they’re not net-weight conscious. They can tell instantly if they’re used to paying $2.99 for a carton of orange juice and that goes up to $3.19. But if the orange juice container goes from 64 ounces to 59 ounces, they’re probably not going to notice.”

MousePrint.org chronicles shrinkflation. Here are some recent examples.

• Double rolls of Bounty paper towels have shrunk from 98 select-a-size sheets to just 90. Triple rolls were downsized from 147 select-a-size sheets per roll to 135.
• The standard 92-ounce bottle of Gain detergent is now 88 ounces.
• A family-size bags of Double Stuf Oreos now have four fewer cookies in each bag. (Did the family shrink?)
• The 19.4-ounce bottle was downsized to 18 ounces.
• A package of Sara Lee blueberry bagels was reduced from five to four bagels as the package weight dropped by 3.3 ounces.
• Green Giant frozen broccoli and cheese sauce packages were reduced from 10.0 oz. to 8.0 oz. with no change in the advertised number of servings per package.
• Ice cream companies have generally dropped the standard 56-ounce container to 48 ounces.
• A tube of Crest Detoxify toothpaste dropped from 4.1 ounces to 3.7 ounces.
• Kettle potato chips switched from 8.5-oz. bags to 7.5-oz. bags.
• A package of Ortega taco shells dropped from 5.8 ounces to 4.9 ounces.

We also see shrinkflation in services. Remember full-service gas stations? Now, we pump our own gas, bag our own groceries and manage our own investment portfolios.

Misplaced Blame

Consumers often don’t notice shrinkflation, but when they do, they get angry, and they usually direct their anger at the “greedy” corporations who are charging them the same amount of money for less product. But there is another culprit who generally slinks around unnoticed.

The Federal Reserve.

Price inflation is a symptom of monetary inflation. As the central bank creates money out of thin air and injects it into the economy, prices generally rise. Economist Murray Rothbard noted that since governments have deemed “paper tickets” and computer digits money, “then the government, as dominant money-supplier, becomes free to create money costlessly and at will. As a result, this ‘inflation’ of the money supply destroys the value of the dollar or pound, drives up prices, cripples economic calculation, and hobbles and seriously damages the workings of the market economy.”

Companies are merely responding to their own cost problem when they shrink package sizes. If they didn’t, they would have to raise the price. And that would make you mad too!

When it’s all said and done, you end up paying more and getting less.

Ron Paul summed it up this way.

Congress should also restore a sound monetary policy by auditing, then ending, the Fed, as well as by repealing both legal tender laws and capital gains taxes on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Ending the era of the welfare-warfare state and fiat currency can lead to a transition to a new era of liberty, peace, prosperity — and full bags of Doritos.”

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

Rickards: “We’re At War!”

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 01:45 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I’ve been studying monetary economics for about 50 years. All of my research has led me to one conclusion — we’re going to see the collapse of the international monetary system.

When I say that, I specifically mean a collapse in confidence in paper currencies around the world. It’s not just the death of the dollar or the demise of the euro. It’s a collapse of confidence in all paper currencies.

Over the past century, monetary systems have changed about every 30–40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Sure enough, 31 years after the end of the classical gold standard, in 1945, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. The dollar was officially designated the world’s leading reserve currency — a position that it still holds today, though that position is weakening.

Under that system, the dollar was linked to gold at $35 per ounce.

In 1971, Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing. It would now be based on floating exchange rates, without a golden anchor.

Today, the existing monetary system is over 50 years old, so the world is long overdue for a new monetary system.

The unprecedented sanctions that the U.S. and its allies imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have only accelerated the move toward a new monetary system.

The sanctions take many forms and affect many different areas of commerce and trade, but what they all have in common is the use of the U.S. dollar as the principal weapon.

Nations around the world realize that as long as they are dependent on dollars for holding assets or purchasing global commodities, they will be under the thumb of those who control the dollar payments systems, which is basically the U.S. with some help from big European and Japanese banks.

Nations also know that while Russia is the current target of sanctions, others could easily be next. If China turns up the pressure on Taiwan, for example, then it could soon be subject to dollar-based sanctions also.

The only way to escape the sanctions is to escape the dollar.

That largely explains the fairly rapid development of the new BRICS currency, which is set to be announced next month. If the severe anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies didn’t happen, it’s highly unlikely that this move would be taking place right now.

That’s not to say that the anti-dollar trend is just a recent phenomenon. It isn’t. It’s been underway for years. It’s just that the sanctions have greatly accelerated the process.

That doesn’t mean the dollar will lose its reserve status overnight.

If you want to see where the dollar is ultimately heading, you should look to the U.K. pound sterling.

Many observers assume the 1944 Bretton Woods conference was the moment the U.S. dollar replaced sterling as the world’s leading reserve currency. But that replacement of sterling by the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency was a process that took 30 years, from 1914–1944.

The 1944 Bretton Woods conference was merely recognition of a process of dollar reserve dominance that was decades in the making.

As with the pound sterling, slippage in the dollar’s role as the leading global reserve currency is not necessarily something that will happen overnight.

But the unprecedented dollar sanctions against Russia have hastened the process.

And although the process will likely be relatively gradual, no investor should be surprised if it happens sooner rather than later.

It’s like the quote from Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises.

One of the characters asks, “How did you go bankrupt?”

“Two ways,” the other character said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

The dollar could lose its reserve status gradually — then suddenly.

If you want to understand how we got here, you need to understand currency wars — what they are, why they’re fought and how they end.

Below, I show you the answers. Read on…

Currency Wars

Currency wars are one of the most important dynamics in the global financial system today.

What is a currency war, in a nutshell? It typically happens when there’s not enough growth in the world to go around for all the debt obligations. In other words, when growth is too low relative to debt burdens. That’s certainly the case today.

When there’s enough growth to go around does the United States really care if some country somewhere around the world tries to cheapen its exchange rate a little bit to encourage a little foreign investment? Not really. It’s almost too small to bother with, in the scheme of things.

But when there’s not enough growth to go around, all of a sudden it’s like a bunch of starving people fighting over the crumbs.

No one wins and everyone loses. Currency wars don’t create growth; they just steal growth temporarily from trading partners until the trading partners steal it back with their own devaluations.

At best, currency wars offer the sorry spectacle of countries stealing growth from trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation and actual violence as the scramble for resources leads to invasion and war.

The current global currency war started in 2010. My book Currency Wars came out a little bit after that. One of the points that I made in the book is that the world is not always in an active currency war. Currency wars do not involve continuous fighting all the time. At certain times, there are intense battles, followed by lulls, followed by more intense battles.

But when they’re in effect, they can last for a very long time. They can last for five, 10, 15, even 20 years. That means this currency could last for several more years.

But it’s important to realize what phase of the currency wars you’re in.

There have been three currency wars in the past one hundred years. Currency War I covered the period from 1921–1936. It really started with the Weimar hyperinflation. This was a period of successive currency devaluation.

In 1921, Germany destroyed its currency. In 1925, France, Belgium and others did the same thing. What was going on at that time prior to World War I in 1914? For a long time before that, the world had been on what’s called the classical gold standard. If you had a balance of payments, your deficit, you paid for it in gold.

If you had a balance of payment surplus, you acquired gold. Gold was the regulator of expansion or contraction of individual economies. You had to be productive, pursue your comparative advantage and have a good business environment to actually get some gold in the system — or at least avoid losing the gold you had. It was a very stable system that promoted enormous growth and low inflation.

That system was torn up in 1914 because countries needed to print money to fight World War I. When World War I was over and the world entered the early 1920s, countries wanted to go back to the gold standard but they didn’t quite know how to do it. There was a conference in Genoa, Italy, in 1922 where the problem was discussed.

The world started out before World War I with the parity. There was a certain amount of gold and a certain amount of paper money backed by gold. Then, the paper money supply was doubled. That left only two choices if countries wanted to go back to a gold standard.

They could’ve doubled the price of gold — basically cut the value of their currency in half — or they could’ve cut the money supply in half. They could’ve done either one but they had to get to the parity either at the new level or the old level. The French said, “This is easy. We’re going to cut the value of the currency in half.” They did that.

If you saw the Woody Allen movie Midnight in Paris, it shows U.S. expatriates living a very high lifestyle in France in the mid-1920s. That was true because of the hyperinflation of France. It wasn’t as bad as the Weimar hyperinflation in Germany, but it was pretty bad. If you had a modest amount of dollars, you could go to France and live like a king.

The U.K. had the same decision to make but they made it differently than France did. There, instead of doubling the price of gold, they cut their money supply in half. They went back to the pre-World War I parity.

That was a decision made by Winston Churchill, who was chancellor of Exchequer at that time. It was extremely deflationary. The point is when you’ve doubled the money supply, you might not like it but you did it and you have to own up to that and recognize that you’ve trashed your currency. Churchill felt duty-bound to live up to the old value.

He cut the money supply in half and that threw the U.K. into a depression three years ahead of the rest of the world. While the rest of the world ran into the depression in 1929, in the U.K. it started in 1926.

I mention that story because to go back to gold at a much higher price measured in sterling would have been the right way to do it. Choosing the wrong price was a contributor to the Great Depression.

Economists today say, “We could never have a gold standard. Don’t you know that the gold standard caused the Great Depression?”

I do know that — it was a contributor to the Great Depression, but it was not because of gold. It was because of the price. Churchill picked the wrong price and that was deflationary.

The lesson of the 1920s is not that you can have a gold standard, but that a country needs to get the price right. They continued down that path until, finally, it was unbearable for the U.K., and they devalued in 1931.

Soon after, the U.S. devalued in 1933. Then France and the U.K. devalued again in 1936. You had a period of successive currency devaluations and so-called “beggar thy neighbor” policies.

The result was, of course, one of the worst depressions in world history. There were skyrocketing unemployment and crushed industrial production that created a long period of very weak to negative growth.

Currency War I was not resolved until World War II and then, finally, at the Bretton Woods conference.

That’s when the world was put on a new monetary standard. Currency War II raged from 1967–1987. The seminal event in the middle of this war was Nixon’s taking the U.S., and ultimately the world, off the gold standard on Aug. 15, 1971.

He did this to create jobs and promote exports to help the U.S. economy. What actually happened instead? We had three recessions back to back, in 1974, 1979 and 1980.

Our stock market crashed in 1974. Unemployment skyrocketed, inflation flew out of control between 1977 and 1981 (U.S. inflation in that five-year period was 50%) and the value of the dollar was cut in half.

Again, the lesson of currency wars is that they don’t produce the results you expect, which are increased exports and jobs and some growth. What they produce is extreme deflation, extreme inflation, recession, depression or economic catastrophe. This brings us to Currency War III, which began in 2010.

Notice I jumped over that whole period from 1985–2010, that 25-year period? What was going on then?

That was the age of what we call “King Dollar” or the “strong dollar” policy. It was a period of very good growth, very good price stability and good economic performance around the world. It was not a gold standard system nor was it rules-based.

The Fed did look at the price of gold as a thermometer to see how they were doing. Basically, what the United States said to the world is, “We’re not on a gold standard, we’re on a dollar standard.

“We, the United States, agree to maintain the purchasing power of the dollar and, you, our trading partners, can link to the dollar or plan your economies around some peg to the dollar. That will give us a stable system.” That actually worked up until 2010 when the U.S. tore up the deal and basically declared Currency War III after the financial crisis.

The historical precedents are sobering enough, but the dangers today are even greater, exponentially increased by the scale and complexity of financial linkages throughout the world.

Here we are in 2023 and they’re still continuing. And with the looming gold-backed BRICS currency, they’re about to heat up.

end

Pam and Russ Martens

Timbrrr…..

JPMorgan Chase Has Bled $230.6 Billion in Deposits Since Q1 2022, With Declines in 5 of the Last 6 Quarters

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 20, 2023

The data in the chart above comes directly from what the biggest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, reported on its 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the quarter ending March 31, 2023. Despite all those mainstream media headlines and news stories about the biggest banks in the U.S. being the deposit beneficiaries of the banking panic earlier this year, the cold, hard facts on the ground are the following: at the end of the first quarter of this year, JPMorgan Chase had seen deposit outflows in four out of the past five quarters. Mainstream media conveniently forgot to mention that.

The only quarter in which JPMorgan Chase saw an inflow of deposits was the first quarter of this year, when three banks blew up: Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. That increase was a mere pittance compared to the huge outflows of deposits it had already suffered in 2022.

Now we are getting an even clearer picture of the downward trend in deposits at JPMorgan Chase thanks to the 8-K filing that the bank made with the SEC on July 14. Had it not been for that sweetheart deal that the FDIC cooked up with JPMorgan Chase in the second quarter of this year, allowing it to buy the good stuff it wanted from the failed First Republic Bank, while regulators ate the bulk of the bad stuff, JPMorgan Chase would have had another decline in deposits in the second quarter.

According to the 8-K filing, First Republic added $68.351 billion to JPMorgan’s deposits for the period ending June 30, 2023. Without those deposits, JPMorgan Chase’s deposits would have stood at $2.33 trillion as of June 30, representing a quarter-over-quarter decline in deposits of $46.64 billion. That would have brought the outflow of deposits since the end of the first quarter of 2022 to a whopping $230.6 billion, and showing that the bank lost deposits in five of the last six quarters.

The bank’s so-called fortress balance sheet is starting to look like there are termites gnawing at the timbers. (See also: JPMorgan Chase Transferred $347 Billion in Debt Securities Over the Last 3 Years to Inflate Its Capital Using a Controversial Maneuver.)

JPMorgan Chase getting the greenlight from federal regulators to purchase the failed First Republic Bank was a demonstration of regulatory capture at its worst. Despite JPMorgan Chase having admitted to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2014; despite it having an organized crime style rap sheet; and despite it being currently scandalized around the globe for functioning as the cash conduit for Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of school-age girls for more than a decade, this is the sweetheart deal the bank got from the FDIC to take over First Republic: the FDIC would eat 80 percent of any losses on single-family residential mortgages for 7 years and 80 percent of any losses on commercial loans, including commercial real estate, for five years. The FDIC also provided JPMorgan Chase with a $50 billion, five-year fixed- rate loan at an undisclosed interest rate.

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Our new vault, ASAHI, is Japanese owned.  ASAHI bought the assets of Johnson Mathey USA

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: Asahi vault 30 miles outside NYC added to Comex list

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-07-19 09:52Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Those who keep an eye on the well-known Comex daily gold and silver inventory reports, (officially titled CME’s “Warehouse and Depository Stocks”) will by now have noticed that a new depository and vault called Asahi Depository LLC has recently made an appearance on the reports, specifically since May this year.

Comex inventory reports are always of keen interest in the precious metals space because they show, at least in theory, how much physical gold and silver in held within a group of “approved” depositories and vaults in and around New York City to backstop or meet delivery obligations connected to the trading of gold futures and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodity Exchange.

Note that in addition to gold and silver, Asahi Depository is also now an approved CME depository for storing platinum and palladium metals connected to the trading of CME platiunum futures and palladium futures contracts on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange).

Given that a new depository and precious metals vault joining the list of Comex/NYMEX approved vaulters is a rare occurrence, it’s worth examining Asahi Depository and its approval by the CME Group (owner of Comex and NYMEX), as well as looking at where the Asahi Depository vault is located in the United States. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.us/blogs/ronan-manly/asahi-vault-30-miles-outside-nyc-added-to-comex-approved-vault-list/

END

Important: JFK jr favours slowly returning the USA to hard currency

(Bitcoin Magazine)

RFK Jr. favors slowly returning U.S. to hard currency standard

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-07-19 09:39Section: Daily Dispatches

RFK Jr. Announces Plan to Back Dollar With Bitcoin, End Bitcoin Taxes

From Bitcoin Magazine, Nashville, Tennessee
via TheStreet.com, New York
Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Speaking at a Heal-the-Divide Political Action Committee event, Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. outlined specific Bitcoin-focused policies that he would enact as president, including gradually backing the U.S. dollar with bitcoin and making bitcoin profits exempt from capital gains taxes.

“My plan would be to start very, very small. Perhaps 1% of issued T-bills would be backed by hard currency — by gold, silver, platinum or bitcoin,” Kennedy said, describing his vision for returning to a hard currency standard in the United States.

He added that, depending on the outcome of that initial step, he would increase that allocation annually.

This potential policy reimagines the financial system, pointing to a future where Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity and sound monetary principles reinforce the U.S. dollar’s eroding position as the world reserve currency.

“Backing dollars and U.S. debt obligations with hard assets could help restore strength to the dollar, rein in inflation and usher in a new era of American financial stability, peace and prosperity,” he declared.

In addition, Kennedy announced his administration “will exempt the conversion of bitcoin to the U.S. dollar from capital gains taxes.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.thestreet.com/cryptocurrency/rfk-jr-announces-plan-to-back-dollar-with-bitcoin-end-bitcoin-taxes

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//COCOA

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.1659 

OFFSHORE YUAN:  DOWN TO 7.1714

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.31 PTS OR 0.92% 

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 24.29 PTS OR 0.13% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 405.51 PTS OR 1.23% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:    ALL  GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  99.95 EURO RISES TO 1.1210 UP 5 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.459 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.45/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN:  UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4040***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.067*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.441…** 

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.773

3j Gold at $1980.60 silver at: 25.19 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  90 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.49//

3m oil into the  75  dollar handle for WTI and 79  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.45//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISESS TO 0.459% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8584 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9624 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.790 UP 5 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.868 UP 3  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.815 UP 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.91…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 3 BASIS PTS AT 4.2485

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Drop As Tech Stocks Spooked By Netflix, Tesla, Taiwan Semi Earnings

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 08:10 AM

US equity futures are lower as tech stocks struggle after some disappointing earnings updates from the sector. At 7:30am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% while Nasdaq futures slide 0.8% as Tesla drops 3% in the premarket after Q2 profitability shrank, and Elon Musk said Tesla will have to keep lowering the prices if interest rates continue to rise. Months of markdowns have already taken a toll on automotive gross margin, which fell to a four-year low in the second quarter. Netflix tumbled over 6%, its biggest intraday decline since December,  after missing sales estimates and projecting third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates suggesting a crackdown on password sharing and a new advertising tier aren’t yet delivering the sales growth analysts anticipated. The rest of the Magnificent Seven are also lower while premarket bright spots includes airlines and banks. European chipmakers are also on the back foot after a cautious outlook from TSMC. Elsewhere, Treasury yields have climbed across the curve, while the dollar has drifted lower. Gold, oil, iron ore and bitcoin prices all increased. The macro data focus is on Leading Indicators, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and Existing Home Sales.

In premarket trading, Taiwan Semiconductor’s US shares declined 2.7% in premarket trading after the main chipmaker for Apple and Nvidia cut its annual outlook for revenue and postponed the start of production at its signature Arizona project to 2025. shares of electric-vehicle makers dropped after Tesla warned of more hits to its already-shrinking profitability, saying it may need to keep lowering the prices of its vehicles. Lucid -1.2%, Rivian -2.1%. Carvana shares rose 1.6%, set for a more muted gain for the massively shorted online used car retailer, which has soared more than 1,000% this year. The rise was tempered as RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock to underperform from sector perform. Catalent shares rose 8.8% in extended market trading Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported that Elliott Investment Management has built a significant stake in the drugmaker and is pushing for changes to the company’s board. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Discover Financial Services slumped 13% in late trading Wednesday after the lender disclosed that it was in discussions with regulators over how it misclassified some of its credit cards.
• Equifax tumbled 5% postmarket Wednesday after the credit reporting agency announces third quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue forecasts that trailed the average analyst estimate.
• IBM shares dropped 1% in extended Wednesday trading, after the tech company reported second-quarter revenue that missed expectations.
• Netflix shares fell as much as 7.8% in premarket trading after the streaming-video company gave a revenue forecast that missed expectations as its crackdown on password sharing and a new advertising tier aren’t yet delivering the anticipated boost to sales. If the premarket losses hold, Netflix will be set for its biggest drop of the year.
• Tesla shares fell as much as 4.2% in premarket trading as the world’s most valuable carmaker warned that hits to margins are likely to keep coming. Analysts were concerned about pressures on the company’s operating margins as the electric-vehicle maker left the door open to further price cuts in the second half of the year.
• United Airlines climbs 3.1% in premarket trading after narrowing its adjusted earnings per share outlook for the full year, exceeding Street estimates. Analysts reacted positively to the result, noting the boost to the carrier from international travel. Peer American Airlines is also higher in the premarket session.

Traders are hitting the pause button on a blistering rally that has taken the tech-heavy Nasdaq 45% higher this year, outpacing the S&P 500’s 19% rise, on irrational exuberance about the potential for artificial intelligence. Such returns on the back of a handful of tech stocks are “overdone” and may be the precursor to a downturn, Aegon Asset Management strategist Cameron McCrimmon warned. “The breadth of returns on the S&P 500 has become increasingly narrow, driven by a few mega-cap tech stocks on AI optimism, which is a classic sign of an ageing bull,” he wrote in a note adding that a US recession is likely this year as central banks persist in tightening policy, and strangling economies, until inflation returns to their 2% targets.

US Treasuries fell, pausing a rally sparked by speculation that easing inflation would give the Federal Reserve room to wind down its rate tightening cycle. Investors also weighed the potential for agricultural commodities to drive inflation higher. Wheat prices extended their biggest daily surge in a decade on Wednesday after Russia warned that any ships to Ukraine would be seen as carrying arms.

In Europe, European tech stocks including ASML Holding NV slumped after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. cut its outlook. However, gains in mining stocks such as Anglo American whose second-quarter beat helped the Stoxx 600 rise 0.2%. Here are the most notable European premarket movers:

• Anglo American shares gain as much as 5.7% after the precious metals miner reported production for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Hikma Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 9.4%, the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 28, with Barclays noting the UK-based injectable-drug firm could see a boost after its US rival Pfizer saw one of its factories damaged by a tornado
• Babcock shares rise as much as 11% as analysts welcome the defense outsourcing company’s medium term guidance with a margin of at least 8%
• Saab shares rise as much as 4.3% after the Swedish defense and aerospace group reported second-quarter results that Citi called strong, and raised its full-year sales guidance
• Publicis shares rise as much as 4.7%, after the French advertising group’s organic growth beat expectations and it raised its guidance for 2023 organic revenue growth
• ABB shares rise as much as 3%, reversing an earlier 2% loss, as the Swiss electrical components manufacturer’s 2Q margin beat and improved guidance offset fears of slowing order momentum. The result should lead to consensus upgrades, Citi analyst predicts
• Alfa Laval gains as much as 7%, after the Swedish industrial equipment maker’s order intake in the second quarter impressed, with analysts seeing slight consensus upgrades ahead
• Boliden drops as much as 13% after recording what Morgan Stanley describes as a “wide” operating profit miss, despite the Swedish mining company already having lowered expectations
• Electrolux shares fall as much as 16%, most since 2011, after the Swedish home appliances maker’s 2Q earnings widely missed expectations
• Metso drops as much as 9.4%, the most for the mining-equipment supplier’s shares since March 2022, with analysts highlighting a miss on orders even as profit was above expectations
• Volvo Cars shares fall as much as 7.4%, the most intraday since April 5, after the automaker reported second-quarter operating income that missed analyst estimates
• EasyJet shares fell as much as 3% as investors turned their attention to the remainder of the year after the low-cost airline’s third-quarter results beat estimates

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed as Beijing’s latest vow (it’s now a daily thing) to support private businesses failed to provide a significant boost to investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed in the red, paring an earlier rise of as much as 0.5%. Tech was the biggest drag as disappointing earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix pulled Nasdaq 100 futures lower. Also, chip giant Taiwan Semi slashed guidance and said it expects full-year sales to decline 10% in USD terms, a bigger decline than the company guided earlier. Japanese benchmarks led losses around the region as the yen strengthened. Hong Kong gauges pared gains while key Chinese measures swung to losses as Beijing’s pledge to treat private companies the same as state-owned enterprises underwhelmed the market. Investors await more concrete support measures after the slower-than-expected second-quarter growth figures.

While Beijing’s latest overture is a positive sign, “the actual impact really takes time to see and the confidence of the private sector can’t be changed overnight,” said Willer Chen, senior research analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia.  Benchmarks rose in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia, while South Korea’s Kosdaq small-cap stock index was among the region’s biggest gainers after renewing its year-to-date high. Thai stocks dipped after capping their longest winning streak since the start of the year on hopes the nation will soon have a new premier and government. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the worst performer after the latest trade data showed weaker-than-expected exports and a wider contraction of imports, although the trade balance returned to a surplus for the first time in almost 2 years. Australia’s ASX 200 was positive with the mining industry underpinned after the world’s largest miner BHP reported higher quarterly iron ore output and with its full-year production at a record high, while the latest jobs data topped forecasts but could also be seen as a double-edged sword with further scope for the central bank to hike rates.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.1%, having pared most of an earlier drop. The Aussie is one of the best performers after jobs data came in better than expected, rising 0.9% versus the greenback. The offshore yuan advanced 0.7% against the dollar and was the best performing currency in Asia after the People’s Bank of China stepped in Thursday, setting its daily fixing of the yuan with the largest bias since November. China’s efforts to revive growth, from cutting rates to closing out a regulatory crackdown on tech firms, have so far done little to support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

In rates, US Treasuries fell, pausing a rally sparked by speculation that easing inflation would give the Fed room to wind down its rate tightening cycle. US 10-year yields rose 4bps to 3.79 as the US trading day begins with yield curve flatter amid similar price action in many European bond markets and Australia, where strong jobs data sparked bear-flattening. Yields are higher by as much as 7bp at short end, ~3bp at long end; 10-year at 3.79% is back above 50-day average level after closing below it Wednesday for first time since mid-May; 30-year remains below the trendline. Inverted 2s10s curve is flatter for third straight day at -103bp; spread nearly reached -111bp twice this year, the most in decades, coinciding with peaking expectations for additional Fed rate increases. Fed swaps continue to fully price in a 25bp rate hike on July 26 and about a third of an additional quarter-point hike this year. Bunds and gilts are posting minor losses. Focal points of US trading day include 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm New York time.  

In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.3% to trade near $75.60. Spot gold adds 0.3%. Bitcoin is up 1.3%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the Conference Board’s leading index for June, as well as the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for July. Over in Europe, we’ll also get German PPI for June, and the preliminary Euro Area consumer confidence reading for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Johnson & Johnson.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,590.25
• MXAP down 0.3% to 167.47
• MXAPJ little changed at 528.24
• Nikkei down 1.2% to 32,490.52
• Topix down 0.8% to 2,260.90
• Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 18,928.02
• Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,169.52
• Sensex up 0.5% to 67,441.99
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,325.05
• Kospi down 0.3% to 2,600.23
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 463.44
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.43%
• Euro little changed at $1.1207
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $79.70/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,982.90
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.21

Top Overnight News

• The yuan jumped after China stepped up its support for the managed currency with a stronger-than-expected reference rate and a change to its capital curbs to lure inflows. The PBOC set its daily fixing at just under 7.15 per dollar, 680 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey and the largest bias since November. It also adjusted some rules to allow companies borrow more from overseas, opening up the door for more foreign capital inflows. BBG
• Chinese authorities are considering easing home buying restrictions in the nation’s biggest cities, potentially removing a hurdle that has curbed demand in Beijing and Shanghai for years. BBG
• Foreign investors are injecting less money into Chinese equities than into other Asian emerging markets for the first time in six years, as investor optimism about Chinese growth wanes. FT
• British supermarket Asda will on Friday cut the prices of 226 own label products by an average of 9%, adding to a body of evidence that a surge in UK food inflation is on the wane. RTRS
• Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said that the Russian threat against grain ships was “grave” and required more weapons to be sent to Ukraine. FT
• U.S. antitrust authorities issued new guidelines spelling out how they will police proposed mergers, in a move that could provide fresh legal support for the government’s efforts to block deals. WSJ
• TSMC surprised with a cut to its annual outlook for revenue, indicating the global electronics slump may persist. It also postponed the start of production at its signature Arizona facility to 2025, citing a shortage of skilled workers and high expenses. BBG
• The Fed looks set to hike by 25 bp next week for the final time this cycle and hold until at least year-end as prices ease, a survey of economists shows. The median of those surveyed sees the first cut in March. On a potential US recession, 58% expect a crunch within 12 months, down from 63% in June. BBG
• Tesla fell premarket on concern about more hits to its margins. Elon Musk said the carmaker will probably keep cutting prices if interest rates continue to rise and plans to invest more than $1 billion on its Dojo supercomputer by the end of 2024. On the bright side, he said lithium prices are easing. BBG
• Netflix’s global password-sharing crackdown delivered robust subscriber growth in the second quarter, a boon for the company as its rivals struggle with flagging TV businesses and costly pivots to streaming…

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following on from the choppy performance stateside as participants digested the latest data releases, corporate earnings results and performance updates. ASX 200 was positive with the mining industry underpinned after the world’s largest miner BHP reported higher quarterly iron ore output and with its full-year production at a record high, while the latest jobs data topped forecasts but could also be seen as a double-edged sword with further scope for the central bank to hike rates. Nikkei 225 was the worst performer after the latest trade data showed weaker-than-expected exports and a wider contraction of imports, although the trade balance returned to a surplus for the first time in almost 2 years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged with Hong Kong lifted by early strength in the property sector after the PBoC eased cross-border funding for firms and financial institutions, while the mainland was lacklustre after the central bank unsurprisingly maintained benchmark lending rates and despite the latest guidelines for the promotion of the private economy.

Top Asian news

• PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jul) 3.55% vs Exp. 3.55% (Prev. 3.55%)
• PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jul) 4.20% vs Exp. 4.20% (Prev. 4.20%)
• PBoC eased cross-border funding through the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for firms and financial institutions which was raised to 1.50 from 1.25, according to Reuters.
• China is reportedly considering mortgage easing to spur buying in the large cities, according to Bloomberg.
• Japanese gov’t cuts its economic growth forecast for the current FY to 1.3% (prev. view 1.5%), consumer inflation 2.6% (prev. view 1.7%) exceeding the BoJ’s 2.0% target.

European bourses are firmer aside from the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% and AEX -0.5% following TSMC and subsequent pressure in Chip names, such as ASM International -5.0% and ASML -3.2%; reminder, SAP reports after the European close. Sectors are mostly firmer, with the exception of Tech, featuring outperformance in Basic Resources after Anglo American’s Q2 update with media names also performing well following Publicis. Stateside, futures are diverging with the NQ -0.8% lagging following after-hours updates from TSLA -2.9% and Netflix -6.7% ahead of data and more earnings.

Top European news

• EU trade chief Dombrovskis said he is hopeful of a breakthrough in talks with the US regarding the steel dispute but will not support any US proposal that flouts global standards and said the US will not be able to resolve the dispute through a deal that discriminates against other countries, according to FT.
• German Car Association VDA says the improved supply situation led to increased vehicle availability in H1; VDA adjusts market forecast upward.
• UK average two-year fixed mortgage 6.79% (prev. 6.81%), first decrease since May 27th, via Moneyfacts.

FX

• Aussie rejuvenated as another strong jobs report revises RBA rate hike prospects, AUD/USD back on 0.6800 handle and above hefty option expiry interest.
• DXY drifts amidst mixed fortunes for index components and as 100.000 holds after pullback from 100.500+ peak on Wednesday.
• Yuan rebounds following multi-pronged intervention from PBoC and Chinese state banks, with USD/CNY and USD/CNH off overnight peaks circa 7.1900 and 7.2325 respectively.
• Euro underpinned by a retracement in EGBs and decent 1.1200 EUR/USD expiry, Yen benefiting from export bids and big 140.00 barrier defences, but Sterling sill deflated sub-1.3000 following soft UK inflation data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1466 vs exp. 7.2233 (prev. 7.1486)
• Chinese state banks were reportedly seen selling dollars to prop up CNH.

Fixed Income

• Deeper pullback in debt as UK disinflationary vibes dissipate.
• Bunds down to 133.36 from 133.87 Eurex peak, Gilts retreat from 97.62 to 96.93 before regrouping and T-note nearer base of 112-19+/31 range ahead of IJC, Philly Fed and existing home sales.
• Spanish and French bonds soft after multi-tranche Bono and OAT issuance, but not unduly.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are little change following similar APAC trade amid a lack of fundamentals since Wednesday’s US session.
• Ags are underpinned by damage to a Ukrainian port and Russia upping the ante around Black Sea transit.
• Within metals, spot gold is little changed and largely following the USD so far while base metals are supported as sentiment in Europe improves though notes production increases by BHP & Anglo American.
• Ukraine’s largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil – Kernel – could need 12-months to restore Ukraine’s Chornomorsk facilities, via Bloomberg.

Geopolitics

• White House warned that Russia may expand their targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, according to Reuters.
• US sanctioned 14 Iraqi banks in a crackdown on Iran’s dollar trade after uncovering that they engaged in money laundering and fraudulent transactions in which some may have involved sanctioned individuals, according to WSJ.
• China’s ambassador to Washington said China’s top priority is to stop Taiwan’s Vice President from visiting the US next month, according to Reuters.
• Belarusian military is to undertake exercises with Russia’s Wagner Group fighters near the border with Poland, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry. Subsequently, Poland says they are prepared for a number of scenarios.
• Russian Kremlin says Poland’s decision to bolster its border with Belarus because of Wagner’s presence is a cause for concern; calls Poland aggressive and the hostile attitude requires heightened attention.
• IRGC Commander has warned of reprisals to any Co. that is willing to unload Iranian oil from the seized tanker, via Tasnim; would hold the US responsible for such action.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 237,000
• 08:30: July Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.73m
• 08:30: July Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -10.0, prior -13.7
• 10:00: June Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.1%, prior 0.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This week I’m celebrating two anniversaries. It’s my 1st anniversary to my wife, as well as my 5th anniversary at Deutsche Bank. Several people have asked me which is the most important, and whilst I’d like to say it’s the wedding anniversary, my wife managed to leave her wedding ring at a gym class this week and didn’t realise it was gone until she got back home. Well, that’s the story I heard at least. Fortunately, the ring was found safe and returned, so I’m just left to hope my marriage lasts at least as long as my career.

Whilst I hope for a long and happy marriage, markets were also happily extending their gains over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.24%) advancing for a 3rd consecutive day to another 15-month high. In the meantime, the 10yr Treasury yield also fell -3.8bps to 3.75%, having now declined by just over 30bps since its 2023 high on 7 July. Several factors were driving the rally, but the main one was growing optimism that central banks might finally be near the end of their current rate hiking cycle, particularly after some positive numbers on inflation over recent days. That idea then got further support from the latest UK CPI print yesterday, which saw its biggest downside surprise in almost two years. And even though the UK still has the highest inflation in the G7, the fact it came in beneath expectations helped to bolster the idea that global inflation was now durably coming down.

UK markets were the most affected by that release, which showed CPI falling to +7.9% in June (vs. +8.2% expected). It was beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, and core CPI was also beneath expectations at +6.9% (vs. +7.1% expected). In turn, that downside surprise meant that investors dialled back their expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of England. For example, at the next meeting in a couple of weeks’ time, markets are still fully pricing in another 25bp hike, but they lowered the chances of a larger 50bp hike from 69% to 43% by the close, and down further to 40% this morning. Looking further out, they also pared back their terminal rate forecasts, with markets now much less confident that they’ll take rates to the 6% mark, which had been fully priced in before the release.

That backdrop led to a massive rally among UK gilts, with the 10yr yield down -12.7bps on the day to 4.20%. The front end of the curve saw even larger moves, with 2yr gilt yields down -20.0bps to 4.84%, and at the intraday low they were down more than -30bps, so this was a big reaction. In the meantime, sterling had its worst day in three weeks, weakening -0.74% against the US Dollar as investors expected fewer rate hikes. And the FTSE 100 surged by +1.80%, with property stocks such as Persimmon (+8.29%) and Land Securities (+7.65%) seeing the strongest outperformance.

Elsewhere yesterday, some of the biggest news came after the US close, with earnings releases from Tesla and Netflix leading a downbeat reaction in after-market trading. Netflix missed sales estimates and issued lower-than-expected Q3 guidance, while Tesla’s results showed shrinking profitability with squeeze on margins. That’s meant US equity futures are pointing lower in overnight trading, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) moving lower.

Ahead of those earnings releases, US equities had put in a decent performance, with both the S&P 500 (+0.24%) and NASDAQ (+0.03%) hitting fresh 15-month highs. US regional banks outperformed following a number of earnings releases, with their index rising +2.79% on the day (and up almost 30% from its low in mid-May). However, European equities were a bit weaker in general. For instance, although the STOXX 600 rose by +0.26% thanks to the UK outperformance, other indices didn’t do so well, with the DAX (-0.10%) seeing a modest decline.

That European underperformance was evident among other assets classes, with sovereign bonds struggling across the continent. Initially they’d done very well thanks to the UK CPI release, but by the end of the session, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.6bps), OATs (+5.7bps) and BTPs (+6.7bps) had all risen. In part, that was thanks to more negative inflation data from the Euro Area, where the recent core CPI print for June was revised up a tenth to 5.5%. So that echoes what we’ve seen in the US where headline inflation is coming down sharply thanks to energy price declines, but core inflation is proving stickier.

Elsewhere, another important story for inflation was what happened to wheat prices yesterday. They surged by +8.50% after Russia’s defence ministry said that ships heading to Ukrainian ports from today would be considered as potentially carrying military cargo. Other agricultural goods were also affected, with corn (+3.46%) and soybeans (+0.97%) rising on the day as well. That follows the news earlier in the week that Russia was pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, which had enabled the continued export of millions of tonnes of food from Ukraine. This morning wheat futures are up a further +2.27%, on track for their 6th consecutive daily advance.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are struggling to gain traction despite a pledge from China to support private businesses. That came yesterday in a joint statement from the Communist Party’s central committee and the state council, which promised to treat private firms equally to state-run firms. In terms of the specific moves, the Hang Seng (+0.26%) is slightly higher after two straight day’s of losses, whereas the the Shanghai Composite (-0.33%) and the CSI 300 (-0.10%) are losing ground. Meanwhile the Nikkei (-1.17%) has experienced a sharper loss, and the KOSPI (-0.18%) is also in negative territory.

In terms of data overnight, there was a strong employment report from Australia, which showed employment growth of +32.6k in June (vs. +15.0k expected), whilst the unemployment rate came in at 3.5% (vs. 3.6% expected). That’s led investors to dial up the chances of another hike from the RBA’s next meeting, which is now seen as a 40% chance, up from 28% previously. Furthermore, 10yr Australian government bond yields are up +8.9bps overnight.

In the political sphere, one story to look out for today are three parliamentary by-elections taking place in the UK. All three are in seats that the governing Conservative Party won at the last general election, but the opposition Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats are looking to make gains. Currently, the Labour Party are polling 20 points ahead of the Conservatives in Politico’s polling average, so the results could give a sense of whether the polls are accurate and if Labour are on track to return to government.

When it came to yesterday’s other data, US housing starts saw a decent fall to an annualised rate of 1.434m in June. That was beneath the 1.48m reading expected by the consensus, and the previous month’s reading was also revised lower from 1.631m to 1.559m. Building permits were beneath expectations in June as well, coming in at 1.44m (vs. 1.5m expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the Conference Board’s leading index for June, as well as the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for July. Over in Europe, we’ll also get German PPI for June, and the preliminary Euro Area consumer confidence reading for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Johnson & Johnson.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

EUROPE

NQ lags following NFLX & TSLA with TSMC short-circuiting European tech – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 06:13 AM

• European bourses are firmer though TSMC’s results have pressured Tech and the Euro Stoxx 50/AEX by extension; SAP due today
• Stateside, NQ lags given pre-market downside in NFLX & TSLA post-earnings
• AUD bolstered by jobs data, Yuan rebounds and EUR underpinned by yields with DXY drifting
• Core benchmarks pullback as Wednesday’s Gilt-driven move eases; yields firmer, short-end leading
• Crude is little changed while Ags. are supported by Russia-Ukraine updates
• Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philly. Fed, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements. Earnings from SAP.

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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are firmer aside from the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% and AEX -0.5% following TSMC and subsequent pressure in Chip names, such as ASM International -5.0% and ASML -3.2%; reminder, SAP reports after the European close.
• Sectors are mostly firmer, with the exception of Tech, featuring outperformance in Basic Resources after Anglo American’s Q2 update with media names also performing well following Publicis.
• Stateside, futures are diverging with the NQ -0.8% lagging following after-hours updates from TSLA -2.9% and Netflix -6.7% ahead of data and more earnings.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.

FX

• Aussie rejuvenated as another strong jobs report revises RBA rate hike prospects, AUD/USD back on 0.6800 handle and above hefty option expiry interest.
• DXY drifts amidst mixed fortunes for index components and as 100.000 holds after pullback from 100.500+ peak on Wednesday.
• Yuan rebounds following multi-pronged intervention from PBoC and Chinese state banks, with USD/CNY and USD/CNH off overnight peaks circa 7.1900 and 7.2325 respectively.
• Euro underpinned by a retracement in EGBs and decent 1.1200 EUR/USD expiry, Yen benefiting from export bids and big 140.00 barrier defences, but Sterling sill deflated sub-1.3000 following soft UK inflation data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1466 vs exp. 7.2233 (prev. 7.1486)
• Chinese state banks were reportedly seen selling dollars to prop up CNH.
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here for the notable option expiries, NY cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Deeper pullback in debt as UK disinflationary vibes dissipate.
• Bunds down to 133.36 from 133.87 Eurex peak, Gilts retreat from 97.62 to 96.93 before regrouping and T-note nearer base of 112-19+/31 range ahead of IJC, Philly Fed and existing home sales.
• Spanish and French bonds soft after multi-tranche Bono and OAT issuance, but not unduly.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are little change following similar APAC trade amid a lack of fundamentals since Wednesday’s US session.
• Ags are underpinned by damage to a Ukrainian port and Russia upping the ante around Black Sea transit.
• Within metals, spot gold is little changed and largely following the USD so far while base metals are supported as sentiment in Europe improves though notes production increases by BHP & Anglo American.
• Ukraine’s largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil – Kernel – could need 12-months to restore Ukraine’s Chornomorsk facilities, via Bloomberg.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• IBM (IBM) Q2 2023 (USD): Operating EPS 2.18 (exp. 2.01), Revenue 15.48bln (exp. 15.57bln). -1% pre-market
• Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.91 (exp. 0.82), Revenue 24.93bln (exp. 24.48bln).-3.0% pre-market
• United Airlines (UAL) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.03 (exp. 4.04), Revenue 14.18bln (exp. 13.91bln). +3.0% pre-market
• Netflix (NFLX) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 3.29 (exp. 2.86), Revenue 8.19bln (exp. 8.29bln); Streaming paid net additions +5.89mln (exp. +2.07mln). -6.7% pre-market
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• EU trade chief Dombrovskis said he is hopeful of a breakthrough in talks with the US regarding the steel dispute but will not support any US proposal that flouts global standards and said the US will not be able to resolve the dispute through a deal that discriminates against other countries, according to FT.
• German Car Association VDA says the improved supply situation led to increased vehicle availability in H1; VDA adjusts market forecast upward.
• UK average two-year fixed mortgage 6.79% (prev. 6.81%), first decrease since May 27th, via Moneyfacts.

DATA RECAP

• EU Current Account SA, EUR (May) 9.1B (Prev. 4.0B)
• Eurostat revisions suggest Eurozone avoided a winter recession whilst output stagnated in Q1. Revises Q1 GDP forecast to 0.0% from -0.1%.

GEOPOLITICS

• White House warned that Russia may expand their targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, according to Reuters.
• US sanctioned 14 Iraqi banks in a crackdown on Iran’s dollar trade after uncovering that they engaged in money laundering and fraudulent transactions in which some may have involved sanctioned individuals, according to WSJ.
• China’s ambassador to Washington said China’s top priority is to stop Taiwan’s Vice President from visiting the US next month, according to Reuters.
• Belarusian military is to undertake exercises with Russia’s Wagner Group fighters near the border with Poland, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry. Subsequently, Poland says they are prepared for a number of scenarios.
• Russian Kremlin says Poland’s decision to bolster its border with Belarus because of Wagner’s presence is a cause for concern; calls Poland aggressive and the hostile attitude requires heightened attention.
• IRGC Commander has warned of reprisals to any Co. that is willing to unload Iranian oil from the seized tanker, via Tasnim; would hold the US responsible for such action.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mixed following on from the choppy performance stateside as participants digested the latest data releases, corporate earnings results and performance updates.
• ASX 200 was positive with the mining industry underpinned after the world’s largest miner BHP reported higher quarterly iron ore output and with its full-year production at a record high, while the latest jobs data topped forecasts but could also be seen as a double-edged sword with further scope for the central bank to hike rates.
• Nikkei 225 was the worst performer after the latest trade data showed weaker-than-expected exports and a wider contraction of imports, although the trade balance returned to a surplus for the first time in almost 2 years.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged with Hong Kong lifted by early strength in the property sector after the PBoC eased cross-border funding for firms and financial institutions, while the mainland was lacklustre after the central bank unsurprisingly maintained benchmark lending rates and despite the latest guidelines for the promotion of the private economy.
• TSMC (2330 TT) Q2 (TWD): Net Profit 181.8bln (exp. 172.5bln), Capex 8.17bln (prev. 9.94bln). Gross margin 54.1% (exp. 53.3%). Q3 Guidance: Revenue 16.7-17.5bln (exp. 19.1bln), Operating Margin 38-40% (exp. 41.3%), Gross Margin 51.5-53.5% (exp. 53.6%); cuts 2023 revenue guidance, now seen down ~10% in USD terms (decline by mid-single digits). Production in Arizona pushed out to 2025 according to Chairman, evaluating building a fab in Germany, continues to expand capacity in Taiwan. Seeing strong demand for AI, hard to fulfil all customer AI demand for backend especially advanced packaging. Will lift capacity as soon as possible. China’s economic recovery is weaker than what the Co. thought it would be; though AI demand is good, it is not enough to offset weaker overall end-market demand due to macro weakness.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jul) 3.55% vs Exp. 3.55% (Prev. 3.55%)
• PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (Jul) 4.20% vs Exp. 4.20% (Prev. 4.20%)
• PBoC eased cross-border funding through the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for firms and financial institutions which was raised to 1.50 from 1.25, according to Reuters.
• China is reportedly considering mortgage easing to spur buying in the large cities, according to Bloomberg.
• Japanese gov’t cuts its economic growth forecast for the current FY to 1.3% (prev. view 1.5%), consumer inflation 2.6% (prev. view 1.7%) exceeding the BoJ’s 2.0% target.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Jun) 43.0B vs. Exp. -46.7B (Prev. -1372.5B)
• Japanese Exports YY (Jun) 1.5% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 0.6%); Imports YY (Jun) -12.9% vs. Exp. -11.3% (Prev. -9.9%)
• Australian Employment (Jun) 32.6k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 75.9k); Unemployment Rate (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Jun) 66.8% vs. Exp. 66.9% (Prev. 66.9%)
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (Q2) -3 (Prev. -4)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.31 PTS OR 0.92%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 24.29 PTS OR 0.13%        /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 405.51 PTS OR 1.23 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  7.1659  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 7.1714 /Oil DOWN TO 75.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 79.71 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/GLOBE//TSMC

The world’s largest chipmaker slashes guidance for world production as it seems that AI boom fails to deliver

(zerohedge)

World’s Largest Chipmaker Slashes Guidance As AI Boom Fails To Deliver

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 09:05 AM

Update (0905ET): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. warned about a deepening semiconductor downturn as the boom in artificial intelligence fails to offset mounting global economic headwinds. TSMC’s stock slumped this morning after the chip giant said it expects 2023 revenue will drop by around 10% instead of the 5% decline projected three months ago. 

“Three months ago we were probably more optimistic, but now [we are] not. The recovery of the Chinese economy is weaker than we thought, so end-market demand is not as we expected,” said C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC. 

Wei continued, “Although we have very good AI end-market demand, it is not enough to offset [that weakness].”

Meanwhile, TSMC chairman Mark Liu pointed out, “The short-term frenzy about the AI demand definitely cannot extrapolate for the long term. Neither can we predict the near future – meaning next year – how the sudden demand will continue or flatten out.” 

Here’s the recap of the second-quarter earnings call (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

*TSMC reported net income of $5.85 billion, which together with operating and gross margins was above its own guidance and consensus estimates. Still, sales were down 23% on the same quarter a year ago. It projected sales of $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion this quarter, less than expectations.

*The Taiwan company lowered its guidance for full-year sales to a 10% decline in US dollar terms, souring hopes for a quick rebound in growth driven by AI demand.

*The AI frenzy has been a positive for TSMC, but not enough to offset global macroeconomic headwinds, such as in China, where the economic recovery has been slower than TSMC expected

*TSMC expects AI chip supply to be tight until at least the end of 2024. Production at TSMC’s Arizona factory, which is currently under construction, has been pushed back to 2025

*The results hurt chip-related shares in Europe, with key supplier ASML falling the most in about seven months. That weighed on the regional stock benchmark

Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the dismal earnings report and outlook (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Wells Fargo Securities

• The results show that AI demand is “not enough to offset other weakness across all other segments,” and that an inventory correction is taking longer with “‘healthier’ levels expected exiting 4Q23”

Wedbush (outperform)

• While “this deterioration in outlook wasn’t unexpected, the magnitude of the downtick was more significant than we had anticipated” 
• Despite the near-term weakness, the company remains well- positioned over the long term in terms of revenue and gross margins

Needham (buy, PT $118)

• “This is the third cut to its revenue outlook that TSMC has made this cycle,” which “may disappoint some bulls, but we see the lack of inventory rebuild through year-end will set up the company for strong growth in 2024”
• Investors should buy on weakness

Bloomberg Intelligence

• The target cut “suggests a deeper-than-expected downturn in smartphone chips and end-market handset demand, aggravated by worsening macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China”

The warning comes as stocks have soared in recent months on the AI theme. 

TSMC is the world’s largest chipmaker and primary chip supplier for NVDA, as well as the top supplier for AAPL, QCOM, and AMD. Its first revenue drop since 2019 and slashed guidance for the fiscal year is an ominous sign for bubbly stocks. 

*   *   * 

The Biden administration’s move to bolster America’s supply chain for next-generation computer chips by increasing domestic production through the CHIPS and Science Act has encountered an issue with the world’s largest contract chipmaker, warning about mass production delays. 

On Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced it would postpone mass production at its plant in Arizona to 2025 due to a shortage of skilled workers, the Nikkei reported. 

“We are encountering certain challenges, as there is an insufficient amount of skilled workers with the specialized expertise required for equipment installation in a semiconductor-grade facility,” TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said on a conference call after earnings. 

Liu said TSMC had sent skilled technicians from Taiwan to compensate for the delays and shortage of trained workers in the US. 

“We expect the production schedule of N4 [4-nanometer chipmaking technology] process technology to be pushed out to 2025,” he continued. 

TSMC is the largest contract chipmaker with clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia. Also, on Thursday, the company revised its full-year outlook downward on continued macroeconomic headwinds developing in China and the rest of the world. 

“It’s all about macroeconomics. In fact, higher inflation and interest rate [hikes] impact demand in all market segments in every region in the world. … China’s economic recovery is also slower than we expected,” said C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC

Wei said, “While we have recently observed an increase in AI-related demand, it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business.” 

When building out domestic chip production, backed by federal subsidies from the Chips Act, the talent to construct these high-tech facilities is mainly in Taiwan and Korea. So access to skilled workers remains problematic as Western countries attempt to decouple from China. 

The key word is ‘attempt’ because Morgan Stanley said in a recent note to clients, “The reality is that a complete decoupling of the US economy from China is neither possible nor desirable.” 

end

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK

New details on why Farage was “debanked”.  Reason: his conservative views and his love of Trump.

This is very dangerous for us all, if it spreads globally.

(ReMix)

“Disgraceful” Coutts ‘De-Banked’ Nigel Farage Because Of His Conservative Views, Internal Dossier Reveals

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Nigel Farage had his bank accounts shut down with the high-net-worth bank Coutts after officials decided the former conservative politician’s views did not align with the bank’s values, it has emerged.

The former UKIP and Brexit Party leader went public last month with the difficulties he was having in opening a U.K. bank account after Coutts, an institution he had been banking with for almost a decade, inexplicably closed his accounts and several other banks refused his applications to open a new one.

Coutts briefed the BBC and the Financial Times following the public accusation by Farage that the decision to close his accounts had been politically motivated, insisting that Mr. Farage had fallen below the financial threshold required to be a customer of the private bank. The move led to criticism of Coutts for revealing personal financial information about one of its former clients and raised ethical questions about the institution’s conduct.

New evidence obtained by Farage now contradicts the initial response provided by the bank.

In a 40-page dossier Mr. Farage acquired via a subject access request, Coutts made it clear that his conservative views were problematic for the bank, citing Brexit no fewer than 86 times, and his support of Donald Trump who is mentioned 39 times.

The minutes of a meeting of Coutts’ wealth reputational risk committee held on Nov. 17 last year stated that Mr. Farage is “seen as xenophobic and racist. He is considered to be a disingenuous grifter. Being associated with Nigel Farage presents a material and ongoing reputational risk to the bank.”

The bank does not state who “sees” Mr. Farage in this fashion, or why this individual or social group holds weight in a decision on whether or not to provide a British citizen with a U.K. bank account. It should be noted that Mr. Farage has won elections in Britain as the leader of a political party, namely the European parliamentary elections with the Brexit Party in 2017, and wields considerable public support.

Executives at the bank agreed that Farage, because of his political views, should be “de-banked.”

Writing for the Telegraph, Farage called the “Stasi-style surveillance report” shocking.

“Monthly press checks were made on me. My social media accounts were monitored. Anything considered ‘problematic’ was recorded. I was being watched,” he wrote.

“This report is proof that any Coutts customer who holds even vaguely conservative views should be treated with disdain.”

Farage explained that the dossier also reported on his friendship with Novak Djokovic who was publicly shunned after refusing to take the Covid-19 vaccine, and his retweeting of a Ricky Gervais joke about leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), a position it should be noted that has been advocated by Home Secretary Suella Braverman on multiple occasions, albeit not as official government policy.

“The most extraordinary comments of all are the areas of the report talking about me ‘not aligning with their views’ and suggesting I must be barred because I do not support the diversity, policies and ‘purpose’ of Coutts, as though Britain is a political regime and I am a dissident,” Farage added.

He warned that anyone else deemed unpalatable by the establishment could be next, and said that “if this situation is left unchecked, we will sleepwalk towards a China-style social credit system in which only those with the ‘correct’ views are allowed to fully participate in society.”

Politicians have commented on the scandal following the publication by Farage of Coutt’s communications, including Energy Security Grant Shapps, who suggested on Wednesday that new legislation may need to be introduced to combat banks acting above their station and delving into politics.

“I think it’s absolutely disgraceful. I don’t have to agree with everything Nigel Farage says to recognize that free speech is a very, very important part of our domestic life,” he said.

”People shouldn’t have their banks closed because of their political or any other view, and banks shouldn’t be refusing to open accounts on that basis as well. And yet there’s a very, very long-running problem in this country where banks are misapplying the guidance and rules and not just closing accounts but refusing to open them in the first place. That shouldn’t be the case,” he added.

Economic Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith also expressed “serious concern” over banks closing accounts based on customers’ political views, and Home Secretary Suella Braverman described the development as “sinister” and urged banks to have a “major rethink” of woke policies.

Later on Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tweeted: “This is wrong. No one should be barred from using basic services for their political views. Free speech is the cornerstone of our democracy.”

-END-

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

ROBERT H. TO US;

Russian steel fist in Donetsk: Large number of T-14 “Armata” surprise attacks on Ukrainian positions and targets – Confirmation WarNews247 – WarNews247

Every week new modern weapon systems are arriving for testing in live combat situations.
And each week more Ukrainians and others die as these weapon systems get tested and reviewed. While the West has used the past year or so sending in obsolete equipment Russia has been testing and revising a broad number of systems to make them better and once refined and tested they go into continuous serial production.

Soon there will be new video’s of Lancet killer drones who attack in “swarm” formations, talk to one another and even call for support when targets are identified. And instead of singular launch they are launch-able in batch formations off trucks. Formations of Personnel carriers and tanks will be wiped out far from combat lines as these drones have a 40-50 mile radius.

We will soon see Russian offensive that will cause much angst in the West. If Poland is thrown into the fight what they will encounter has not been used upon the Ukrainians but is readied. They will meet the same fate dying in industrial quantities. As it is lately NATO planes have been knowingly flying into Kiev to evacuate the dead mercenaries.
At som point Russia will decide enough is enough and they will encounter Missiles and the same will take place over the Black Sea. As for Americans in Syria they will soon experience a missile hell. Even the Turks do not want a piece of what is coming. It is all about having enough in serial production to unleash.

https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-atsalini-grothia-sto-ntonetsk-megalos-arithmos-rosikon-t-14-armata-eplixan-aifnidiastika-oukranikes-theseis-epivevaiosi-warnews247/

end

RUSSIA/

wheat prices soar as Russia considers ships heading to Ukraine as carriers of military cargo and they will bomb them out

(zerohedge)

Wheat Prices Soar As Russia Considers Ships Heading To Ukraine As “Carriers Of Military Cargo”

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 06:55 PM

Wheat futures jumped Wednesday morning after Russia’s defense ministry released a memo on Telegram indicating all vessels sailing to Ukraine ports in the waters of the Black Sea will be “regarded as potential carriers of military cargo” beginning on Thursday. 

“In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” the defense ministry said. 

The ministry continued: 

• Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kiev regime.
• In addition, a number of sea areas in the north-western and south-eastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation. Corresponding information warnings on the withdrawal of safety guarantees to mariners have been issued in accordance with the established procedure.

Following the defense ministry’s new warning, coupled with the termination of the Black Sea Grain deal earlier this week, wheat futures in Chicago soared 9% on Wednesday morning in Chicago. 

Terminating the grain deal will only bring higher food costs and shortages for countries that import agricultural products from Ukraine. 

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-rand-paul-warns-were-out-ammo-were-out-money

Watch: Rand Paul Warns “We’re Out Of Ammo, We’re Out Of Money”

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 09:50 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-rand-paul-warns-were-out-ammo-were-out-money

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul declared Wednesday that the U.S. cannot afford to keep sending money and ammo to Ukraine in order to fight a war with Russia, because the country has run out of both.

Appearing on Fox Business, Paul responded to the almost weekly announcement now that the Biden administration is sending another billion dollars in aid to Ukraine.  

end 

IRAN/USA

USA cannot unload Iranian oil seized 5 months ago as companies are afraid of Tehran’s retaliation

(Zerohedge)

Seized Iranian Oil Stuck Off Texas Coast As US Companies Afraid Of Tehran’s Retaliation

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 10:15 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US federal prosecutors are struggling to sell off a shipment of stolen Iranian oil being carried by a Greek tanker off the coast of Texas, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The US Justice Department seized the Greek tanker Suez Rajan in April under the pretext of sanctions enforcement and forced the ship to head for Texas instead of China. The Suez Rajan is carrying 800,000 barrels of stolen oil and is currently off the coast of Galveston.

According to the Journal, the US can’t sell the oil because the companies that would unload the oil are worried about Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf.

“Companies with any exposure whatsoever in the Persian Gulf are literally afraid to do it,” a Houston-based energy executive involved in the matter told the paper.

The executive said that several companies contacted about the oil declined to unload the cargo. After the US stole the Iranian oil shipment, Iran seized two tankers in the Persian Gulf, which was likely retaliation.

Since then, the US has announced several measures to increase its military presence in the region to prevent more Iranian seizures in the Persian Gulf that it provoked in the first place.

Fresh threats from Iran over the Suez Rajan tanker and its oil off Galveston…

The US has a history of seizing tankers and stealing Iranian cargo. In 2021, the Biden administration sold off two million barrels of Iranian oil taken from a tanker that was seized off the coast of the UAE.

During the Trump administration, the US seized ships carrying Iranian gas bound for Venezuela and discharged some of the cargo in New York.

END

IRAQ/SWEDEN EMBASSY

This is what happens when you let huge numbers of migrants into your country:

(zerohedge)

Swedish Embassy In Baghdad Burned As Iraqis Storm Compound Over Planned Quran-Burning

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 11:15 AM

Hundreds of Iraqis outraged by a planned burning of a Koran in Stockholm stormed Sweden’s embassy in Baghdad over Wednesday night and set it ablaze. 

The protesters were spurred into action by the powerful Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has railed against a string of incidents in Sweden where the Quran has been variously burned or torn apart. His latest call to action was a response to the anticipated Thursday burning of a Quran and an Iraqi flag outside Iraq’s embassy in Stockholm. 

“Attacks on embassies and diplomats constitute a serious violation of the Vienna Convention,” said the Swedish Foreign Ministry in a statement. “Iraqi authorities have the responsibility to protect diplomatic missions and diplomatic staff.”

Swedish officials said all of its embassy employees were unharmed, but the same can’t be said for the place where they work. Videos circulating on social media that purportedly depict the situation at the embassy show the building emitting flames and smoke, with the grounds fully controlled by a rowdy mob.

Declaring Sweden “hostile” to Islam, Sadr has urged the Iraqi government to cut diplomatic ties. Neighboring Iran said it wouldn’t send a new ambassador to Sweden, and summoned the country’s charge d’affaires for a scolding over toleration of serial desecration of Islam’s central religious text. Condemnation has also been issued by Egypt, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Jordan. 

One of the people who desecrated a Quran in Sweden is an Iraqi Christian who calls himself a refugee and wants the Quran to be banned. Iraq’s government is asking Sweden to extradite him to face consequences in his native country. Sweden has charged him with agitation against an ethnic or national group.

Social media accounts of the embassy takeover suggest that protesters amassed around the compound around 1 am local time and conquered it by 2 am. 

Iraq’s foreign ministry condemned the sacking of the embassy, noting that the government had ordered authorities to swiftly investigate it and hold responsible parties to account. 

As daylight broke, Iraqi security forces had secured the compound, and the great majority of the Sadrist mob had left the area. 

Sweden’s string of Quran incidents is complicating the country’s drive to join NATO, which requires Turkey’s vote. Turkey has cited the incidents as one reason to potentially reject Sweden’s application. 

Turkish president Erdogan given a series of mixed signals about his government’s support for Sweden’s bid. Last week, NATO said Erdogan had agreed to endorse Sweden’s joining of the mutual defense treaty, only to have Erdogan dampen optimism again by saying the choice was up to the Turkish parliament — and noting that Sweden had more work to do to secure its support. 

END

BELARUS/POLAND

Not good!! Belarus under the joint command with Wagner fighters are holding exercises near Poland’s border and may I remind everyone that Poland is a NATO member

(zerohedge)

Belarus To Hold Exercises With Wagner Near NATO-Member Poland’s Border

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 11:55 AM

Belarus’ Defense Ministry has announced it will hold joint military exercises with Wagner fighters along the border with NATO-member Poland, in a fresh escalation after Warsaw has already remained on edge over the presence of Russian mercenary forces next door.

“The Armed Forces of Belarus continue joint training with the fighters of PMC ‘Wagner,’” the defense ministry said in a fresh statement. “During the week, units of the special operations forces together with representatives of the company will work out training and combat tasks at the Brestsky training ground.”

Poland and Belarus share a some 400km-long border, with Warsaw having said its border is secure with additional reinforcements.

Previous satellite imagery by Maxar widely circulated in Western press reports appeared to show Wagner bases inside Belarus, after President Lukashenko invited them in to his country following the short-lived mutiny in Russia of June 23-24. 

In connection with the new joint training exercise, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has reemerged after a long disappearance from public view, and apparently he is back in Belarus as of this week.

According to a description of fresh video by BBC: 

A video on Telegram channels linked to the Wagner mercenary group appears to show its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in Belarus.

He is seen welcoming fighters and describing recent developments on the front line in Ukraine as a “disgrace”. He also hints that Wagner might rejoin the war at a later date.

The video is yet more confirmation that Wagner fighters are actually training Belarusian forces in specialized warfare techniques. 

“This would be the first footage of Prigozhin seen since Wagner launched an armed mutiny inside Russia in late June,” BBC continues. “Shot in low light, it shows Prigozhin standing on an asphalt track in a field, surrounded by trees and what look like warehouses and tents,” the report details.

“BBC Verify is confident that the layout of the tents, trees and buildings matches that of a location on the western edge of the camp,” it says of the video.

Poland at the start of this month sent hundreds of elite counterterrorism police to the border, and plans to additionally add to its fortifications along the Belarusian border, also amid ongoing NATO troop build-up along the alliances ‘eastern flank’, and in places like Lithuania.

END

GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

end

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Is Dr. Peter McCullough correct? That mRNA tecnology Vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) Clinical Trial Integrity was Eroded by Corruption and Rush to Market Entry? Yes, I know the data, the submission

The Pfizer and Moderna trials were corrupted and fraudulent, the data was fraudulently presented to the public and FDA, these pharma people are crooks, MUST be jailed for the post deaths!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 19

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In my mind he is correct, that these mRNA technology gene injections were deadly day one! The Pfizer and Moderna and BioNTech CEOs must be investigated and put under trial. Jailed if we must. These are would be criminals IMO, Bourla, Bancel, Sahin.

Two French Scientists Expose Purposeful Bias, Fraud, and Misconduct to Hide Safety Issues and Produce False Picture of Efficacy

McCullough:

‘How could the mRNA vaccines have looked so good in the Fall of 2020 with >90% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 and no serious safety issues and then the next few months after release have the bottom fall out with massive breakthrough cases and horrific injuries, disabilities, and death?

Could it be that Pfizer manipulated their randomized trials to hide safety issues and make the products appear as if they worked when they did not? I sat down and talked to two French scientists who have performed a forensic analysis of what actually happened during the Pfizer randomized trials.’

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) Clinical Trial Integrity Eroded by Corruption and Rush to Market Entry

Watch now (47 min) | By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH How could the mRNA vaccines have looked so good in the Fall of 2020 with >90% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 and no serious safety issues and then the next few months after release have the bottom fall out with massive breakthrough cases and horrific injuries, disabilities, and death…

END

See my prior substack on COVID, all of the pandemic, from virus, to lockdowns, to the mRNA technology injection vaccine, all of it was a fraud, a lie! 100%, all steps failed! David Martin is on FIRE!

Martin: “for 58 years the United States, UK, in collaboration with researchers across the world, planned to premeditatively use coronavirus to instill the most tyrannical reform of society; the won”

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 19

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Dr. David Martin's Eye-Opening Discussion with Brian Rose from London Real@DrDMartinWorld discusses the massive government overreach that occurred due to the anthrax scare and with Covid-19:

"Here's the bad news… for 58 years the United States, the UK, in collaboration with… pic.twitter.com/X91qCBEbcf

— Gain of Fauci (@DschlopesIsBack) July 9, 2023

Was COVID a ‘premeditated’ evil assault on populations, freedoms, on America principally to bring her to heel, was it devised & designed to instill fear & panic & submission? Yes, 100% & it did! The

DR. PAUL ALEXANDER·12:59 PM

Start looking at Fauci, Birx, Walensky, Jha, Weissman, Kariko, Bourla, Sahin, Bancel, Azar, Baric, Daszak et al. and all involved in the prior Trump administration, all involved in present Biden administration. Do not be afraid to hang these people if judges and juries and proper legal entities fairly examine them and their actions in COVID and decide t…

Read full story

“Here’s the bad news… for 58 years the United States, the UK, in collaboration with researchers across the world, planned to use coronavirus to instill the most tyrannical reform of society that this generation has ever seen. And they did it purely premeditated to make sure that we were cowed into submission.”

“And the bad news for them is… there’s a lot of people that didn’t take the knee.”

Dr. David Martin's Eye-Opening Discussion with Brian Rose from London Real@DrDMartinWorld discusses the massive government overreach that occurred due to the anthrax scare and with Covid-19:

"Here's the bad news… for 58 years the United States, the UK, in collaboration with… pic.twitter.com/X91qCBEbcf

— Gain of Fauci (@DschlopesIsBack) July 9, 2023

END

Makis looks at doctors who died suddenly & vaccinated, were these doctor deaths due to the mRNA technology COVID injections? Did the COVID vaccine kill them? I think it has potent role & applaud Makis

18 doctors who died suddenly, ages 20 to 64. Five were medical students or medical residents who didn’t finish their studies; 9 cardiac arrests (2 at work – emerg, cardiology rounds, 1 swimming etc.)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 19

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‘July 16, 2023 – Ann Arbor, MI – 61 year old Dr.Michael Fetters died on July 16, 2023 after a year long battle with pancreatic cancer (turbo cancer?) (click here)

July 11, 2023 – Barreiras, Brazil – 25 year old medical student Dr. Maira Cavalcante Ayres Pedrosa Cardoso, daughter of mayor of Barreiras, died suddenly after suffering a cardiac arrest. (click here)

July 10, 2023 – Philippines – Dr. Snegugu Ntobeko Myeni, final year medical student, died at the airport as she was about to board a plane back to South Africa (click here)

June 29, 2023 – Fernandopolis, Brazil – 20 year old medical student Dr.Maria Fernanda Roldan died suddenly while having coffee with her parents on the morning of June 29, 2023, from a “massive heart attack”

June 26, 2023 – 42 year old popular Mexican TV doctor and self-proclaimed “vaccination expert” Dr.Alfredo Victoria, died suddenly in his sleep.

June 26, 2023 – Syracuse, NY – Dr. Bradley Middleton MD, 34 year old Emergency doctor, collapsed at his home and was rushed to the SUNY Upstate Emergency Room, where he worked. His colleagues rushed to save him, but couldn’t. He had just graduated from med school in 2019. He leaves behind 2 small children and an expectant wife.

June 18, 2023 – Italy – 42 year old Italian doctor Dr. Paolo Cappare had a medical emergency while swimming off a beach and died suddenly on June 18, 2023. He graduated from medicine and surgery.

June 15, 2023 – Lubbock, TX – 56 year old Dr.Holly Sharon Stewart Hester was working in the Emergency Room when she died suddenly and unexpectedly. She leaves behind 10 year old twin orphans (click here)

June 15, 2023 – Teresina, Brazil – 43 year old Cardiologist Dr.Ismar Marques Filho died of a “massive heart attack”.

June 14, 2023 – Goianesia, Brazil – 22 year old medical student at University of Rio Verde, Dr. Samya Coelho Brito Bucar died suddenly. She was hospitalized since May 17 in the ICU where she had cardiac arrests and suffered from pulmonary embolism & lack of oxygen to her brain.

June 3, 2023 – Philadelphia, PA – 41 year old Dr. Sam P. Wyche died suddenly on June 3, 2023 from cardiac arrest (click here)

May 18, 2023 – Fulbourn, UK – 46 year old leading UK surgeon, doctor Stephen Quinn died suddenly on May 18, 2023 He was an NHS Obstetrician & Gynecologist, specializing in recurrent miscarriages.

May 14, 2023 – Singapore – 37 yo UK (NHS) trained doctor Yee Vonne Liong was diagnosed with aggressive breast cancer in Jul/Aug.2021. It metastasized to her brain.

May 5, 2023 – Washington, DC – 60 year old cardiologist Dr. Ramin Oskoui MD, died suddenly on May 5, 2023 He was doing his cardiology rounds on May 5, when he collapsed during rounds and later died. He had been named Physician of the Year by Johns Hopkins Medicine (click here)

April 25, 2023 – Bethesda, MD – 54 year old Internal Medicine doctor Karen Ann Blackstone died after a “brief illness” on April 25, 2023. She was Director of Palliative Care at Washington DC Veterans Admin Medical Center She leaves behind three children. (click here)

April 18, 2023 – Hoboken, NJ – 28 year old doctor Dr.Ahntu Vu (family medicine resident) died 2 months after being diagnosed with Glioblastoma (turbo brain cancer). (click here)’

END

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay NewsNYT Admits ‘Official Covid Deaths’ Were Overcounted by 30%After years of smearing such claims as “conspiracy theories,” the left-wing New York Times has admitted that the “official” data on deaths caused by Covid was overcounted by at least 30 percent.READ MORECNN Shills for Bill Gates’ ‘Lab-Grown Meat’ CompanyCNN has started shilling for Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates’ “lab-grown” fake “meat” company.READ MORETucker Carlson Spills Beans on Entire Biden Family in New BiographyTucker Carlson has spilled the beans on Democrat President Joe Biden and his entire Biden family in the star news anchor’s new biography.READ MORESheryl Crow Joins ‘Woke’ Mob, Trashes Jason Aldean Over Hit Anti-Crime SongSheryl Crow has joined the radical “woke” mob and trashed country music legend Jason Aldean over his new hit song, “Try That in a Small Town.”READ MORECountry Music Television Caves, Takes Jason Aldean’s ‘Try That In a Small Town’ Video Off AirCountry Music Television (CMT) has caved to the “woke” mob and pulled Jason Aldean’s music video for his new anti-crime hit song, “Try That in a Small Town,” from the air.READ MOREUS Government Suspends Funding for Wuhan Lab Over Safety ConcernsDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration has finally suspended funding for the Wuhan Institute of Virology over concerns about the dangerous research conducted at the Chinese lab.READ MORE4 Thugs Break into Armed Philadelphia Woman’s Home, Instantly Regret ItFour suspected burglars thought they were in for an easy ride when they broke into the home of a Philadelphia woman who lived alone.READ MORESecret Service ‘Destroyed’ Evidence in White House Cocaine ‘Investigation’The U.S. taxpayer-funded Secret Service has reportedly “destroyed” all evidence in the agency’s “investigation” into the bag of cocaine found in Democrat President Joe Biden’s White House.READ MOREMassachusetts Calls on Residents to House Illegal Border Crossers in Their HomesDemocrat-led Massachusetts is calling on residents to house illegal border crossers in their homes as the state’s homeless population continues to swell.READ MOREPsaki: ‘Foreign Agents’ Are Behind Biden InvestigationsFormer White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki is still running cover for her old boss from her new job at MSNBC.READ MORECountry Music Star Jason Aldean Fires Back at ‘Woke’ Critics’ ‘Meritless’ and ‘Dangerous’ ClaimsCountry music superstar Jason Aldean fired back at the “woke” critics of his new song.READ MOREAmerica’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves Hit 40-Year Low under BidenAmerica’s emergency oil stockpiles have dropped to 40-year lows under Democrat President Joe Biden’s mismanagement.READ MOREMichigan Attorney General Dana Nessel Charges 16 Trump ‘False Electors’ with Election Law and Forgery FeloniesMichigan’s Attorney General Dana Nessel has become the latest Democrat prosecutor to attempt to springboard their career by launching a get-Trump case ahead of the 2024 election.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Pureblood: Demand Soars for Unvaxxed Blood BanksDemand is soaring around the world for “clean transfusions” using unvaxxed blood as donations from “purebloods” are now in short supply.READ THE FULL REPORT

Las Vegas Police Execute Search Warrant on Home in Connection to the Murder of Tupac ShakurTwitter user ALX shared the news: “BREAKING: Las Vegas police have executed a search warrant on a home in connection with the unsolved 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur” BREAKING: Las Vegas police have executed a search warrant on a home in connection with the unsolved 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur— ALX  (@alx) July 18, 2023 On Tuesday Las Vegas …READ THE FULL REPORT

Country Legend Jason Aldean Pushes Back at Leftist Propaganda Falsely Accusing Him of Having a ‘Pro-Lynching’ SongJason Aldean has made headlines a lot lately. Yesterday it was reported that he had a heat stroke and had to cut a concert short, but is thankfully ok. Today it is being reported that he’s under fire for a new song “Try That in a Small Town”. Aldean claims the song is not about race and has been absolutely …READ THE FULL REPORT

Donald Trump Says He is Being Threatened with Grand Jury Indictment Over January 6Former President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that special counsel Jack Smith has informed him of being the primary focus of the January 6 investigation and necessitates his appearance before a grand jury. In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump expressed deep concern over the information relayed to him by his attorneys. He asserted that he received the letter …READ THE FULL REPORT

Donald Trump Says ‘Deranged’ Jack Smith and Joe Biden Plan to Indict and Arrest Him Over January 6thDonald Trump has issues the following statement: “Statement by Donald J. Trump 45th President of the United States WOW! On Sunday night, while I was with my family, having just arrived from the Turning Point event in Florida, where I won the Straw Poll against all other Republican candidates with 85.7%, with all polls showing me leading in the Republican …READ THE FULL REPORT

VACCINE IMPACT/

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1210 UP  0.0005

USA/ YEN 139.43  DOWN 0.150  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2894  DOWN    0.0043

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3131 DOWN .0032 (CDN DOLLAR UP 32 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.31 PTS OR  0.92% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 24.29 PTS OR 0.13% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .05 %  // EUROPEAN BOURSE:  ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:    ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 24.29 PTS OR 0.13%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 29.31 PTS OR 0.92%  

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.05% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 405.51 PTS OR 1.23% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1981.85

silver:$25.19

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.95 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.163%  UP 4  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.458% DOWN 0 AND  2//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.479 UP 3  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.102 UP 4  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4485  UP 4  BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.11141 DOWN  0.0063 or  63  basis points 

USA/Japan: 140,29 UP 0.688 OR YEN DOWN 69 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2850 DOWN   0.0087 OR 87  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN  .0021 OR 21 BASIS pts  to 1.3184

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (UP) …7.1768

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1827)

TURKISH LIRA:  26.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.458…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 11 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.848% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  3.920 UP 10   in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 63.81  points or  0.84%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 97.22 PTS OR 0.60%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 63.71 PTS OR 0.87%

Spain IBEX UP 71.90 PTS OR 0.76%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 121.11 PTS OR 0.42%

WTI Oil price 75.51    12: EST

Brent Oil:  79.55   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  90.28 ROUBLE UP 1 AND   11//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4485  UP 4 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3075  UP 5  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM 

Euro vs USA: 1.1129 DOWN  0.0075   OR 75 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2862 DOWN   .0075 or  75 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.324 %  UP 10 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.06 UP 0.457 //YEN UP 46 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3179  UP .0017 CDN dollar, DOWN 17  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 75.63

Brent OIL:  79.66

USA 10 yr bond yield  UP 11 BASIS pts to 3.850% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 10    BASIS PTS to 3.920% 

USA 2 YR BOND:UP 7  PTS AT 4.826%  

USA dollar index: 100.56 UP 57  BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.78 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  90.23  UP 1   AND  14/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:  UP 163.22 PTS OR 0.87% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 360.26 PTS OR 2.28%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.13 UP 0.37 PTS (2.64)%

GLD: $182.74 DOWN 0.93 OR 0.51%

SLV/ $22.68 DOWN .42 OR 1.62%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Bonds, Big-Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Breakdown As Greenback Gains

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Initial jobless claims were better than expected but Philly Fed Manufacturing, Existing Home Sales, and Leading Economic Indicators all weakened and disappointed.

Source: Bloomberg

But the big drivers for the day were in tech (after earnings).

Tesla tumbled (down over 9%)…

Netflix not chill (down over 8%)…

Chips stocks stumbled after TSMC pissed in the AI punchbowl…

Source: Bloomberg

As an aside, CVNA soared over 30% in the pre-market after its debt restructuring and capital raise; then faded back in the US day session…

All of which pummeled the Nasdaq. which suffered its worst drop since Feb. Only The Dow was green on the day among the US majors. Today was the biggest Dow outperformance of Nasdaq since March 2021…

Today is the 38th day in a row since the S&P had a 1%-down-day – the longest streak since Q4 2017…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow is up for the 9th day in a row – the longest streak since Aug 2017…

Notably, with the Nasdaq rebalance looming, today saw the mega-cap “down-weights” get monkeyhammered relative to the “up-weights”…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks fell today for the first time this week

Source: Bloomberg

It was VIXperation today, and the fear index dumped and pumped on the day…

Treasuries were dumped on the day with the belly underperforming (2Y & 30Y +6bps, 5Y +11bps), pulling all but the 30Y yield higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended gains to one-week highs….

Source: Bloomberg

As the Nasdaq began to accelerate lower, so Bitcoin joined the party, tumbling back below $30k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower on the day as the dollar rallied…

Despite a sudden puke mid-morning, WTI ended marginally higher on the day…

Finally, the correlation between VIX and the S&P has surged of late as negative gamma increases which infers dealers must buy stock into higher markets, sending correlation higher and higher…

Source: Goldman Sachs

The last time this correlation hit these highs was late ’17…which was the lowest VIX reading ever & the previous all time low in the CBOE correlation index.

Translation: regime change is coming.

b) THIS MORNING TRADING//

END

II) USA DATA/

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Signals 10th Straight Month Of Contraction

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 08:44 AM

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that activity in the region continued to decline overall in June.

The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative. However, the index for shipments rose and turned positive.

Current general activity declined from a reading of -10.4 last month to -13.7 this month, its 10th consecutive negative reading. One-third of the firms reported decreases, exceeding the 20 percent reporting increases…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as the chart above shows, there is hope – the index for future general activity jumped from a reading of -10.3 in May to 12.7 in June, the index’s first positive reading in four months and highest reading since March 2022

New Orders contracted for the 14th straight month., but expectations for future new orders exploded higher…

Finally, on the positive side – for The Fed – the price indexes remained below long-run averages.

end

Not good: existing home sales tumble!

(zerohedge)

US Existing Home Sales Tumbled In June By Most Since Nov ’22

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 10:06 AM

After May’s modest (0.2% MoM) rise in existing home sales, expectations were for a return to declines in June, and they did tumbling 3.3% MoM (worse than the 2.3% MoM decline expected). That is the biggest MoM drop since Nov 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The decoupling between existing and new home sales continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Sales fell in the South and West, were steady in the Midwest and rose in the Northeast

A lack of inventory in the resale market remains a key constraint.

The number of homes for sale held at 1.08 million, the lowest June inventory on record. With mortgage rates more than twice as high as they were at the end of 2021, many homeowners are choosing not to sell their homes.

“There are simply not enough homes for sale,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

While the median selling price – at $410,200 – is down slightly from a year ago, it’s the second-highest in data back to 1999. Yun said scant supply is still leading to many homes receiving multiple offers, with one-third getting sold above the asking price.

END

Strong indicator of a recession:

(Market Watch)

U.S. leading index falls for 15th month in a row —and still no recession

July 20, 2023 at 10:08 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Leading economic index drops 0.7% in June

The numbers: The leading economic index dropped 0.7% in June and fell for the 15th month in a row, a recession signal if there ever was one. But the U.S. economy is still growing and shows few signs of a pending slump.

The leading index is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. Seven of the 10 indicators fell in June.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% drop.

Key details: The last time the leading index fell so many months in a row was in 2007-2008, when the U.S. suffered from the Great Recession.

In June, seven of the 10 indicators tracked by the Conference Board declined.

A measure of current economic conditions, meanwhile, was flata in June.

The so-called lagging index — a look in the rearview mirror — was also unchanged last month.

The report is published by the nonprofit Conference Board.

Big picture: Lots of economists are sticking to their guns and predicting a recession within the next year because of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has sharply increased borrowing costs to slow the economy and squash inflation.

The economy is still growing faster than expected, however, and shows little sign of rapid slowdown. What’s more, the Fed might be done raising interest rates in July.

Looking ahead: “June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the board.

“We forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from [the third quarter of] 2023 to [the first quarter of] 2024,” she added. “The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.”

END

Complete Paralysis: Just 1% Of US Homes Have Changed Hands In 2023, The Lowest On Record

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 10:35 AM

While the US housing market has remained surprisingly resilient price-wise in the face of 7% mortgage rates, which the Fed has pushed to near-Volcker levels precisely in hopes of accelerating the disinflationary wave by crushing housing, that single most valuable asset of the US middle class, the reality why prices have not collapsed is that the bid-ask spread for any home currently for sale has ballooned to levels where the market is effectively frozen as there is simply no possibility for the bid and ask to meet somewhere “in the middle” of the range (those who are hoping to buy are already tapped out before being asked to pay even more, while sellers are already wealthy and absent a liquidity crunch see no reason to sell a home at what they view as firesale prices).

Overnight, real-estate brokerage Redfin calculated just how widespread said paralysis is: it found that just 14 of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands during the first six months of 2023. That’s down from 19 of every 1,000 during the same period of 2019 and the lowest turnover rate in at least a decade, since Redfin’s records started. That means prospective homebuyers have 28% fewer homes to choose from than they did before the pandemic upended the U.S. housing market.

Redfin uses turnover as a measure of housing availability; it indicates how often homes change hands in a given area.  This analysis includes overall for-sale housing turnover and breakdowns based on neighborhood type and home type.

The pre-pandemic turnover rate noted above (roughly 20 of every 1,000 sellable homes change hands in the first half of a year) is fairly typical for the modern housing market, but a more active market would have a rate closer to 40 or 50 of every 1,000.

As Redfin adds, the wild pandemic-era housing market has intensified an existing shortage of homes for sale and led to this year’s low turnover rate. In 2018, Freddie Mac estimated that about 2.5 million more homes needed to be built to meet demand, with the shortfall mainly due to a lack of construction of single-family homes. The homebuying boom of late 2020 and 2021, driven by record-low mortgage rates, remote work and a surge in investor purchases, depleted already low inventory levels. Finally, 2022’s soaring mortgage rates–average rates nearly doubled from January to June–exacerbated the shortage by handcuffing homeowners to their comparatively low rates. Some homeowners have opted to renovate their current home, and some are buying another home but hanging onto their first one and renting it out to either a longterm tenant or short-term vacationers. Now, the supply of homes for sale is at a record low.

“The quick increase in mortgage rates created an uphill battle for many Americans who want to buy a home by locking up inventory and making the homes that do hit the market too expensive. The typical home is selling for about 40% more than before the pandemic,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Mortgage rates dropping closer to 5% would make the biggest dent in the affordability crisis by freeing up some inventory and bringing monthly payments down. But there are a few other things that would boost turnover and help make homes more affordable. Building more housing is imperative, and federal and local governments can help by reforming zoning and making the building process easier. Financial incentives, like reducing transfer taxes for home sellers and subsidizing major moves with tax breaks, would also add to supply.”

Suburbs hardest hit

House hunters searching for large homes in the suburbs have seen the biggest drop in their options. Just about 16 of every 1,000 four-bedroom-plus suburban single-family homes sold in the first half of this year, down from 24 of every 1,000 that sold in the same period in 2019. That means buyers of that home type have 33% fewer houses to choose from.

The turnover rate has dropped for every size home in every type of neighborhood over the last four years (though buyers will have an easier time finding something for sale in certain metro areas, as outlined below). That trend can be seen in the chart above, which displays the national post-pandemic housing turnover rate on the left and the pre-pandemic rate on the right. The length of the line between the two dots indicates how much turnover declined from 2019 to 2023, with the biggest declines at the top.

The turnover rate of large single-family suburban homes has shrunk most because that type of home exploded in popularity during the pandemic. Remote workers flocked to the suburbs, untethered from the office, and purchased large properties with space for adults to work from home and children to attend school from home.

“New listings normally hit the market on Thursdays, and I have buyers who are excitedly checking their Redfin app Thursday mornings, only to find nothing new,” said Phoenix Redfin Premier agent Heather Mahmood-Corley. “That goes for buyers in every price range in every type of neighborhood, but what people want most are those move-in ready, mid-sized homes in neighborhoods with highly rated schools. Those are hardest to find because for people to buy one, someone needs to sell one. That’s not happening, because so many of those homeowners have low mortgage rates.”

The turnover rate of condos and townhomes didn’t shrink as much as that of single-family homes during the pandemic, though condo and townhouse buyers are still about 20% less likely to find that type of home than they were in 2019.

Supply of that home type wasn’t depleted as much because there wasn’t as much demand for them during the pandemic. In fact, many remote workers were selling condos and townhouses in favor of single-family homes with more space.

Modestly sized single-family homes in the city are hardest to find: Just 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom urban houses sold in the first half of this year

Smaller houses in the city have the lowest turnover rate of all the home types in this analysis.  Roughly 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom single-family homes in urban neighborhoods sold in the first six months of 2023, compared to 14 of every 1,000 during the same period in 2019.

Two- to three-bedroom homes in suburban neighborhoods are essentially tied with their urban counterparts for the lowest turnover rate, with 11 of every 1,000 changing hands this year. That’s down from 16 of every 1,000 in 2019.

Modestly sized single-family homes in all kinds of neighborhoods have long been hard for buyers to find. That’s because builders don’t make many of them anymore, and homeowners tend to hold onto the ones that exist.

Today’s homebuilders tend to focus on the kind of home that’s in demand and profitable: Larger single-family homes, which don’t cost much more to build than smaller ones but sell for more money, and condos and townhouses, which cost less to build. And people who own those starter-type homes often turn them into rental properties rather than selling when they move up to bigger houses.  Homeowners can often cover their mortgage and then some when renting out this type of home, especially in desirable neighborhoods; that income paired with the home’s value increasing over time incentivizes keeping rather than selling.

Homebuyers have the smallest pool of options in the Bay Area: Just 6 of every 1,000 San Jose homes have turned over to a new owner this year

Northern California has the lowest turnover rate in the U.S. Just six of every 1,000 homes in San Jose changed hands in the first half of 2023, the lowest rate of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. It’s followed closely by Oakland, San Diego, Los Angeles, Sacramento and Anaheim, all places where about eight of every 1,000 homes turned over to a new owner.

The pandemic exacerbated the supply shortage throughout California, with the turnover rate dropping by at least 30% in each of those metros from 2019 to 2023.

Zooming in on large, suburban single-family homes, California still has the lowest turnover rate. Six of every 1,000 homes of that type have sold this year in San Jose (-40% since 2019), the lowest rate in the nation. Next come Oakland (7 of every 1,000; -43%), San Diego (8 of every 1,000; -51%), Sacramento (9 of every 1,000; -41%) and Anaheim (9 of every 1,000; -41%).

Homebuyers have the biggest pool of options in Newark, NJ and Nashville, where more than 23 of every 1,000 homes have changed hands this year

Newark, NJ has the highest turnover rate in the U.S., with 24 of every 1,000 homes changing hands during the first six months this year. It’s followed closely by Nashville, TN (23 of every 1,000) and Austin, TX (22 of every 1,000). Nashville and Austin are also two of the three metros (along with Fort Worth, TX) with the highest turnover for large suburban, single-family homes.

Newark buyers still have far fewer homes to choose from than they did before the pandemic, with a 42% drop in turnover since 2019. Only New Brunswick, NJ (-49%) and San Diego (-46%) had bigger declines. Zooming in on large suburban houses, New Brunswick (-55%), Chicago (-54%) and New York (-52%) had the biggest drops in turnover.

But Nashville and Austin are both among the five metros with the smallest declines in turnover since 2019, posting drops of just 10% and 14%, respectively. When it comes to large suburban houses, Nashville and Austin have the second and third smallest declines. That’s partly due to robust new construction in Nashville and Austin: Inventory of single-family homes for sale in both metros is made up of more than 30% newly built homes, compared to 22% nationwide.

Only Milwaukee and Columbus, OH, which both saw overall turnover drop by about 8% from 2019 to 2023, had smaller declines in turnover than Nashville. Indianapolis, IN comes in fourth, with a 14% decline. Milwaukee, Columbus and Indianapolis have relatively stable turnover because they didn’t experience huge homebuying demand swings throughout the pandemic.

More in the full Redfin report.

END

Continuing claims continues to rise//initial claims at all time highs

(zerohedge)

Continuing Claims Rose Last Week, ‘Unadjusted’ Initial Claims At Jan Highs

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 08:34 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week fell from 237k the prior week to 228k (well below the 240k exp) – the lowest since May. However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, initial claims remain at the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

California and Georgia saw the biggest rise in initial claims last week while Michigan and Kentucky saw declines…

However, continuing claims rose from 1.721mm to 1.754mm Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, WARN notices – which give a lead on unemployment claims – have fallen somewhat from their recent peak. However, the drop does not yet look by enough to throw doubt on the current steadily rising trend in claims.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Small Businesses continue to suffer from poor credit availability, which historically has been a good leading signal for the labor market…

Source: Bloomberg

How’s that for ‘long and variable’ lagged monetary policy impact?

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

SAN FRANCISCO

twenty thefts a day at SF’s Walgreens.  No wonder they are closing their locations there

(Zhou/EpochTimes)

“This Year Is The Worst”: SF Walgreens Store Suffers 20 Thefts A Day, Chains Up Freezer Section

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 04:35 PM

Authored by Lear Zhou via The Epoch Times,

The Walgreens store at 16th Avenue and Geary Boulevard started using chains and locks in the freezer section to protect food from being stolen. One employee, who chose not to reveal his name, told The Epoch Times the shoplifting happens 15–20 times every day.

“This year is the worst,” the senior employee told The Epoch Times, especially after the downtown Walgreens store closed.

According to the employee, the shoplifters include homeless people and drug addicts. Under company policy, he is not allowed to intervene.

In the store, two freezer sections filled with pizzas and waffles are chained with padlocks, beginning from one and a half weeks ago, the employee said.

Chains secure a freezer full of ice cream and other sweet treats in a Walgreens store in San Francisco, Calif. on July 18, 2023. (Lear Zhou/The Epoch Times)

Another food section adjacent to one of the chained freezers has been intentionally left empty. Employees chose not to fill the shelf with merchandise such as food, beer, soda, or toilet paper which is more likely to be stolen.

The senior employee explained that if store workers fill the shelves with merchandise, it will be stolen in 12–24 hours. On July 18, from the store opening to 11 am, there had already been five or six shoplifting incidents, the employee said.

Most other sections are also locked with plastic shields, but this measure has not been enough to keep things safe. The employee showed some plastic shields that had been burned away.

A close-up view of chains securing a freezer full of food in a Walgreens store in San Francisco, Calif. on July 18, 2023. (Lear Zhou/The Epoch Times)

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/year-worst-sf-walgreens-store-suffers-20-thefts-day-chains-freezer-section

“It’s a major inconvenience for the community,” Walgreens customer Justin Van Zandt told reporters outside the store.

Van Zandt said it’s not fair for everyday people to wait 10 minutes in line for a Walgreens worker to get merchandise.

“How disheartening and soul destroying, to be a worker who works all day for minimum wage, and you see some person come in, put a bunch of stuff in a sack and they’re [grabbing] like $500 [worth].”

They are not even from San Francisco, Van Zandt said. They are stealing $500 or $700 worth of merchandise and reselling it online.

[ZH: Of course, it’s not just Walgreens…]

Passed in 2014, Proposition 47 reduced the classification for shoplifting goods worth less than $950 from a felony to a misdemeanor.

Proposition 47 is often cited as a contributor to the theft problem in California.

end

BALTIMORE

CRE panic hits Baltimore again as a second office tower is dumped at a 69% discount

(zerohedge0

CRE Panic Hits Baltimore As Second Office Tower Dumped At 69% Discount

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 07:45 AM

On Tuesday, we asked: Is this the start of a commercial real estate firesale in crime-ridden Baltimore City?

And to our surprise, it appears so.

Let’s begin with our report on Tuesday when The Baltimore Sun revealed a 30-story office tower at One South Street in downtown Baltimore that was sold in June for $24 million, a 63.6% discount versus the tower’s 2015 sale of $66 million. This was the first sale of its kind in the post-pandemic era. 

One South Street

And one day later, a new report surfaced via the Baltimore Business Journal that indicated another office tower had been panic dumped at a 69% discount. 

1 E. Pratt St. has sold for $55.1 million less than it last traded for — marking the second office tower in Baltimore’s central business district to change hands this summer at a steep discount as the troubled local office market resets.

MCB Real Estate shelled out $25 million for the 10-story office and retail development at Pratt and Light streets, according to three sources familiar with the transaction that is not yet recorded in state property records. The tower last sold in March 2018 to a subsidiary of Banyan Street Capital for $80.1 million, records show. -Baltimore Business Journal

1 E. Pratt St. 

The occurrence of two firesales this summer clearly indicates that the commercial real estate market in the downtown area is experiencing a massive reset, if not a crash, in prices. 

None of this should surprise readers because we’ve already penned a note titled “Entire Downtown Is Effectively Dead:” Baltimore City Descends Further Into Turmoil. 

Terri Harrington, a commercial real estate broker, told The Sun to expect more firesales:

 “I also believe you are going to see other buildings in the same boat.”

Occupancy drives building values, and many towers in the downtown area are struggling to maintain tenants. The CRE collapse in the metro area is not entirely due to remote or hybrid work trends. Instead, at least one financial firm tells us they’re actively searching for space outside the city because Democrats have failed to maintain law and order. 

Let’s not forget the CRE mess is a nationwide issue in major US cities. 

END

 Huge Chip maker TSMC delays its Arizona chip plant amid labour shortage.  Vaccine problems?

(zerohedge)

TSMC Delays Arizona Chip Plant’s Mass Production Amid Labor Shortage

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 06:55 AM

The Biden administration’s move to bolster America’s supply chain for next-generation computer chips by increasing domestic production through the CHIPS and Science Act has encountered an issue with the world’s largest contract chipmaker, warning about mass production delays. 

On Thursday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced it would postpone mass production at its plant in Arizona to 2025 due to a shortage of skilled workers, the Nikkei reported. 

“We are encountering certain challenges, as there is an insufficient amount of skilled workers with the specialized expertise required for equipment installation in a semiconductor-grade facility,” TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said on a conference call after earnings. 

Liu said TSMC had sent skilled technicians from Taiwan to compensate for the delays and shortage of trained workers in the US. 

“We expect the production schedule of N4 [4-nanometer chipmaking technology] process technology to be pushed out to 2025,” he continued. 

TSMC is the largest contract chipmaker with clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia. Also, on Thursday, the company revised its full-year outlook downward on continued macroeconomic headwinds developing in China and the rest of the world. 

“It’s all about macroeconomics. In fact, higher inflation and interest rate [hikes] impact demand in all market segments in every region in the world. … China’s economic recovery is also slower than we expected,” said C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC

Wei said, “While we have recently observed an increase in AI-related demand, it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business.” 

When building out domestic chip production, backed by federal subsidies from the Chips Act, the talent to construct these high-tech facilities is mainly in Taiwan and Korea. So access to skilled workers remains problematic as Western countries attempt to decouple from China. 

The key word is ‘attempt’ because Morgan Stanley said in a recent note to clients, “The reality is that a complete decoupling of the US economy from China is neither possible nor desirable.” 

END

Cash strapped consumers now travelling by bus?

(zerohedge)

Cash-Strapped Consumers Travel By Bus To Destination Hotspots

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 05:45 AM

Even though Transportation Security Administration data shows the Fourth of July weekend was the busiest day in US aviation history, there’s emerging evidence of an increasing number of travelers taking regional bus carriers to destination hotspots. 

Flix North America, owner of Greyhound and FlixBus, said bookings jumped 63% over the Fourth of July weekend after being up 70% over Memorial Day weekend. 

The exact reason why travelers are resorting to regional bus carriers might be due to constant airport delays (mainly because of a controller shortage), long lines, and lost luggage. However, traveling by plane is expensive. 

We suspect tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation has forced a consumer behavior shift (of mid/low tier consumers) to trade down from commercial airline travel to buses. 

For travel cost comparisons, let’s say someone wanted to fly from New York City to Washington, DC. Today’s flight would cost roughly $150 versus a Greyhound bus of around $35. 

“Traveling by bus isn’t only a Plan B. More road warriors are choosing bus travel from the outset to avoid high fares and airport hassles,” Ramin Shabanpour, a civil engineering professor who studies travel behavior at the University of North Florida, told The Wall Street Journal. He said airport congestion is also fueling travelers to consider buses. 

Also, the cost of owning and operating a car is expensive — if that’s paying for insurance, maintenance, and or fuel — consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth, forcing them to drain personal savings and rack up high credit card debt to make ends meet. 

The surge in bus demand is great news for the bus industry that was crushed in the early days of Covid. Peter Pantuso, president of the American Bus Association, said 30% and 40% of small coach companies have vanished since 2020.

There could be tremendous upside for the bus industry as cash-strapped consumers have figured out that traveling by bus is one of the cheapest options.

END

New York Fed reports a surge in credit application rejections

(Jung)

New York Fed Reports Surge In Credit Application Rejections

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 09:10 AM

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said more Americans had their credit applications rejected last month at levels not seen in years.

The New York Fed reported on July 16 added that fewer people across the country also sought to borrow.

The report was part of the bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, which is taken every four months to assess credit access issues in the United States.

The New York Fed reported that the overall rejection rate for credit applicants rose to its highest level since June 2018, standing at 21.8 percent, a jump from 17.3 percent in February.

Researchers noted that the rise in the application rejection rate “was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.”

[ZH: The National Association of Credit Managers (NACM) confirms The Fed’s report with Credit application rejections jumping by the most since 2002 in June… back to severely tight levels…]

Rejection rates for auto loans came in at 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, the highest on record since 2013, while rising for credit card applications, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance requests, at 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively.

The survey noted that the average probability that a loan would be rejected “sharply” increased to record levels for auto loans, credit cards, credit limit increases, and housing-related credit.

However, consumer lending rates have remained relatively stable, despite some signs of slowing down from its peak in October 2022.

The Fed survey found that the application rate for credit over the past 12 months modestly declined to 40.3 percent from 40.9 percent in February, its lowest reading since October 2020.

On the other hand, respondents who planned to apply for credit over the next year ticked up to 26.4 percent from 26.1 percent in February.

Application rates for auto loans and credit card limit requests declined to 11.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively, while increasing to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinancing.

Cars sit in a lot at a Queens auto dealership in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Recession Indicators

The report has raised additional concerns about a looming recession from analysts.

Peter Tarr, a stock and options trader, said via Twitter that the latest survey results were, “A leading indicator for a recession and tighter conditions is auto loan approvals vs rejections. Rejections are now at an all time high & exceed new applications.”

Others, like British financial analyst James Eagle, see mixed signals in the NY Fed report.

“A significant increase in auto loan rejections could be an early signal of a possible economic downturn. Or, it could mean nothing. Macro signals are pretty mixed right now. It [is] very difficult to say where we are in the business cycle i.e. different parts of the economy are responding differently to each other,” Mr. Eagle said via Twitter.

Credit Harder to Acquire

The U.S. lending sector has taken a hit following the collapse of three regional banks this spring which has caused the flow of credit to dry up for many businesses.

Loan loss reserves have risen by more than $25 billion since June last year.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policymakers aggressively raised borrowing rates in March 2022 to head off high levels of inflation by softening demand.

This policy has made credit harder to get, and the Fed is widely expected to raise rates again next week at its next policy rate meeting.

The higher interest rates have driven up borrowing costs, causing banks to brace for more defaults, while overall loan loss allowances, outside the pandemic, peaked at their highest level in almost 12 years.

A for sale sign is posted in front of a home in San Anselmo, Calif., on March 22, 2023. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

The housing sector has disproportionately taken a major blow due to rising mortgage rates, which surged below 3 percent from the fall of 2020 and most of 2021 to above the 7 percent mark.

Increasing home lending costs have caused Americans to refrain from buying or selling properties.

The New York Fed reported in May that first-quarter mortgage demand continued to tumble as overall household debt levels rose.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also said in early July that a rebound in the housing sector was a potential source of risk for future price pressures.

end

Credit scores abruptly plunge as Americans stop paying down debt

(zerohedge)

Credit Scores Abruptly Plunge As Americans Stop Paying Down Debt; Synchrony Financial Warns

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 09:35 PM

Over the past few years, tens of millions of consumers witnessed a remarkable increase in their credit scores, primarily due to helicopter money dished out by the federal government, rock-bottom interest rates, and a pause on student-loan payments. However, the party has come to an abrupt end as credit scores plunge. 

Bloomberg reports Synchrony Financial is closing inactive accounts and capping card limits for a number of clients as macroeconomic headwinds mount. 

“What we are seeing is people who are doing significant score migration — a 680 or a 690 going to a 620,” Synchrony Financial CFO Brian Wenzel said in an interview. 

Wenzel said, “Folks who had paid down debt, their scores had gone up, and now they’re reverting back to more normal performance.”

The Stamford, Connecticut-based consumer financial services company hasn’t tightened underwriting standards for new accounts but is beginning to notice consumer stress 16 months into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening cycle.

Two years of an inflation storm has sent real wage growth to negative levels, forcing many consumers to drain personal savings and overutilize credit cards to make ends meet. We noted this in “Credit Card Debt Explodes At 2nd Fastest Pace On Record Just As Rates Hit All-Time High” and “Credit Card Debt Keeps Surging Even As Interest Rates Hit Record High.”

Consumers have racked up record amounts of credit card debt while interest rates on these cards have surged to the highest level ever of around 21% on average. Surging debt loads and high rates make paying off outstanding balances even harder for some consumers. 

A lower credit score means consumers will have increasing trouble qualifying for new credit lines, thus cutting off their lifelines. Perhaps that’s why we’ve seen a surge in Google searches for “pawn shop near me” as consumers pawn off items for quick loans. 

Just wait until student-loan payments restart … this will crush consumers even more as millions must divert even more income into debt servicing payments. Maybe consumers are heading into a period of a balance sheet recession. 

end

This will probably turn into a huge bankruptcy as these guys cannot deliver products profitably

(zerohedge)

Teamsters Issue Strike Notice at Yellow

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 10:55 AM

By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves

Shortly after less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. said Tuesday it would go through with plans to defer required contributions to funds managed by Central States Funds, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters issued a strike notice.

The notice said a work stoppage could occur as soon as Monday.

“Yellow has failed its workers once again and continues to neglect its responsibilities,” said Sean O’Brien, Teamsters general president. “Following years of worker givebacks, federal loans, and other bailouts, this deadbeat company has only itself to blame for being in this embarrassing position.”

On Monday, Central States issued a delinquency notice to plan participants working at Yellow (NASDAQ: YELL) operating companies YRC Freight and Holland. The letter said the companies had deferred health and welfare and pension contributions due this past Saturday and would do the same for payments due August 15.

“The Company advised Central States Funds that it would defer payment of health and pension contributions for June (due July 15) and July (due August 15) to preserve liquidity as it worked to obtain meetings with the IBT [International Brotherhood of Teamsters] as well as secure additional financing,” a Tuesday evening statement from Yellow read.

The combined payments total $50 million for the two-month period.

A recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed Yellow had in excess of $100 million in cash as of June 30.

Yellow has said it will repay the amounts with interest in the future.

If unpaid, the carriers’ participation in the pension plan would be terminated on Sunday and health care claims incurred by employees after Saturday would not be paid.

Employees have the option to pay for health care out of pocket. In a separate notification, Central States said the cost is $471.86 per week through July 29. The amount increases to $507.08 per week after that. Payments must be received by August 23.

Yellow and the Teamsters have been unable to reach an agreement on operational changes that the carrier says are necessary for it to remain in business.

The Teamsters statement said the company has until Sunday to make the payment.

“Yellow has a responsibility and obligation to workers. Our members should not suffer because of management’s incompetence and financial irresponsibility,” said Fred Zuckerman, Teamsters general secretary-treasurer. “The Teamsters are working with our local unions, and we will continue to regularly update members as this situation unfolds.”

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE

END. 

SWAMP STORIES

The lefty journalists hate this movie. Why?

(Brandon Smith)

Journalists Attacking The Film ‘Sound Of Freedom’ Should Have Their Hard Drives Investigated

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 11:55 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

I recently went to see the movie Sound Of Freedom with the expectation of a moderate level of political commentary or religious pontificating, given the rabid and widespread attacks on the film by the leftist media. All I knew going in was that the indie production was about child trafficking and that the mainstream media HATES IT. After the film was over, my first thought was that it was an excellent story about a very dark and difficult issue. My second thought was – “What the hell was all the fuss about? There’s not a single political moment in the entire movie!”

The media war on the low budget flick is so bizarre given this fact that I am immediately suspicious of their intentions. Not one political message, not one momentary critique of the political left, not one moment where MAGA or Trump or “Q-Anon” is mentioned, not one “conspiracy theory.” So why all the hate?

Before reading this review any further I highly recommend you check out some of the hatchet job articles published about Sound Of Freedom to get a sense of what I’m talking about – examples are here, here, here and here.

The first thing you’ll probably notice is that the majority of these vitriolic diatribes use the exact same talking points – They suggest that The Sound Of Freedom is based in conspiracy theory, far-right extremism and that it is funded by a subversive network of “Q-Anon adjacent” conservatives. Some journalists have even attacked the veracity of the film’s true story – the career of DHS agent Tim Ballard, who operated covertly to take down child sex traffickers in Central America.

The Guardian asserts:

“Caviezel stars as special agent Tim Ballard, a Homeland Security Investigations operative who really did work for the state busting up child-trafficking rings for more a decade. (Or so he claims – the DHS can neither confirm nor deny the real Ballard’s employment history.) Even if he did not literally have the face of Christ, Ballard would still exude an angelic aura as he gently hoists dirty-faced moppets out of peril with the gravely uttered catchphrase: “God’s children are not for sale.”

Rolling Stone fumes:

“Ballard, Caviezel, and others of their ilk had primed the public to accept Sound of Freedom as a documentary rather than delusion by fomenting moral panic for years over this grossly exaggerated “epidemic” of child sex-trafficking, much of it funneling people into conspiracist rabbit holes and QAnon communities. In short, I was at the movies with people who were there to see their worst fears confirmed.”

Perhaps Rolling Stone has never heard of Epstein’s Island? Why are they pretending like this global criminal enterprise is not a thing?

These reviews are dripping with venom, though a simple investigation into Tim Ballard reveals endless evidence that he did in fact quit his job at DHS to operate in Central America to stop child trafficking rings. And the sting that is the core of the film on an island Ballard set up as a trap to capture an entire network of pedophiles as well as save 120 kids? Yeah, that was real, too.

In fact, there’s a documentary about Tim Ballard’s successful sting called ‘Triple Take’ and the Sound Of Freedom movie includes real life arrest footage from that event. There is no question that almost every detail in Sound Of Freedom is real. Any media outlet that says otherwise is lying, and the fact that they are attempting to sow seeds of doubt about the legitimacy of Tim Ballard based on politics is villainous.

One interesting part of the the film that is NOT accurate was the depiction of a Latin billionaire funding Tim Ballard’s efforts. In reality, Ballard says that it was primarily conservative host Glenn Beck that raised money for his operations that led to the rescue of hundreds of children. Why Glenn Beck was not mentioned in the final cut of the film is hard to say, but Ballard’s connection to Beck might partly explain the media’s fury over the movie. How DARE these conservative men save children from sex slavery, right? It makes conservatives look like (GASP!) good guys.

But there’s something more going on here than mere envy on the part of leftist journalists. The campaign against the movie is far too coordinated and far too expansive (global). It is as if these people are interconnected and they all agreed together to try to subvert the film, or they were all ORDERED to subvert the film.

This kind of behavior suggests a personal stake in creating conditions for failure; it makes it seem like these journalists want to sabotage the movie because of its premise and message. Why would someone want to sabotage a movie which exposes child trafficking and pedophiles? Could it be that we need to check the hard drives of some of these establishment media writers and producers?

I think it’s important to note that such people have been criminally prosecuted for child sex abuse in the past. For example, long time CNN producer John Griffin was recently arrested and convicted of child rape, using online apps to connect with mothers willing to sell their children to him for thousands of dollars so he could abuse them at his Vermont vacation home.

Last year the FBI raided the home of renowned ABC News producer James Gordon Meek and arrested him on charges of transporting child pornography. Rolling Stone Magazine was later accused of trying to cover up the reason for the arrest with selective editing and omission. Rolling Stone is now one of the main outlets attacking Sound Of Freedom.

Maybe the movie makes these journalists angry because it exposes one of their favorite hobbies?

I’m a long time film buff and I can say with some authority that as a movie, Sound Of Freedom is well made and well executed. The overall acting is effective including Jim Caviezel’s portrayal of Tim Ballard, the child performances are amazing, the editing is excellent and the cinematography is top notch. The film is good all around; it reminds me of one my favorite movies of all time, a criminal procedural directed by Akira Kurosawa called ‘High And Low’ (also known as ‘Heaven And Hell’ in Japan) about police investigating a child kidnapping.

My only complaint is that I felt they should have shown Tim Ballard with his family a little more, so that when he makes the decision to go to Columbia and risk his life, the choice carries more weight.  Other than that, Sound Of Freedom is one of the best dramas I have seen in a long time, and at no point did I feel “preached at.” I can’t say the same for most Hollywood films the past several years, which are replete with non-stop leftist propaganda.

The depiction of the process of child trafficking is very uncomfortable, but it’s meant to be. I rarely squirm in my chair with discomfort or get angry at characters on a screen, but every time there was a scene with a pedophile all I could think was “That guy needs to go in a wood chipper.” That’s good film making.

So again, there are few if any valid criticisms to make about the production itself and the story is largely accurate. Why are leftist journalists raging against this movie? I think because it sheds light on the fact that pedophilia is not only about isolated cases of loners stalking school playgrounds, it’s an international industry worth billions upon billions of dollars, and there are very rich and powerful people involved in that industry (including people in mainstream journalism).

They don’t want people to consider the pervasive nature of this criminal underworld. They want people passive and unaware. For some reason, they want people to assume that child slavery is a conspiracy theory.

Another issue to consider is that the political left has been aggressively targeting children with sexualization for the past several years, primarily through the imposition of trans ideology. They are turning the sexualization of minors into an activist movement. Children as young as kindergarten are being indoctrinated with “gender identity” propaganda and HIGHLY pornographic books (with pornographic images) posing as educational LGBT content are being planted in public schools. We all know what the end game of this movement is – The normalization of pedophilia.

Leftists may be consciously or unconsciously hostile to Sound Of Freedom because when they see the organized networks of child groomers on the big screen, they see themselves.

To conclude: Go see this movie. The media attacks are clearly designed to dissuade people from watching it based on political bias. Check it out and you’ll realize quickly that all their claims are false. Furthermore, you’ll start to wonder aloud why they hate the film? The saying “Methinks thou dost protest too much…” comes to mind, as such journalists reveal their propensity for evil.

END

Former FBI Special Agent ‘Confirmed’ Key Parts Of Hunter Biden IRS Whistleblower Testimony: Comer

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 11:15 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A former FBI supervisory special agent has allegedly confirmed key portions of an IRS whistleblower’s testimony that President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, received preferential treatment during an investigation into felony tax crimes, according to the House Oversight Committee.

“Today, a former FBI supervisory special agent assigned to the FBI’s Wilmington office and the Biden criminal investigation confirmed key portions of the IRS whistleblower’s testimony,” committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) said in a July 17 statement.Hunter Biden arrives for a toast during an official State Dinner in honor of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at the White House on June 22, 2023. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Comer did not reveal the identity of the former FBI agent.

He further claimed that the night before the interview of Hunter Biden, “both Secret Service headquarters and the Biden transition team were tipped off about the planned interview.”

“On the day of the Hunter Biden interview, federal agents were told to stand by and could not approach Hunter Biden—they had to wait for his call. As a result of the change in plans, IRS and FBI criminal investigators never got to interview Hunter Biden as part of the investigation,” he continued.

The Epoch Times has contacted the White House for comment.

Mr. Biden’s son has been under federal investigation for alleged tax fraud since 2018. According to prosecutors, he received more than $1.5 million in taxable income in 2017 and more than $1.5 million more in 2018 and was required by law to pay more than $100,000 in income tax for his earnings each of those years but failed to pay the tax.President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden attend the annual Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, on April 10, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

‘Obvious Conflicts of Interest’

Mr. Comer’s statement comes after Gary Shapley, an IRS supervisory special agent, earlier this year claimed that the Department of Justice and the Delaware U.S. Attorney’s Office interfered in the investigation into the younger Mr. Biden in an attempt to delay the probe.

According to Mr. Shapley, the DOJ provided the younger Mr. Biden with preferential treatment, “slow-walked the investigation,” and “did nothing to avoid obvious conflicts of interest in this investigation.”

The former IRS agent additionally told prosecutors that the case into Hunter Biden had been “handled differently than any investigation” he’d ever been part of in his 14 years of service to the IRS and that some aspects of the case appeared to be influenced by politics.

Another whistleblower, a criminal investigator with the IRS identified only as Whistleblower X, has made similar claims.

The DOJ has denied any interference in the investigation into Hunter Biden.

Meanwhile, Mr. Biden has denied any wrongdoing on behalf of his family or himself.

Hunter Biden agreed to plead guilty to two counts of willful failure to pay federal income tax in a deal with the U.S. government in June, according to a letter from U.S. Attorney David Weiss to the U.S. court in Delaware.

The agreement to plead guilty meant he avoided prosecution on a separate gun charge. He is set to appear in court on July 26.

According to Mr. Comer, who cited a transcribed interview with the former FBI supervisory special agent, multiple witness interviews were planned for Dec. 8, 2020, and Mr. Shapley and the former FBI agent were assigned to interview the president’s son.

Read more here…

end

Friendly Fire: Dan Goldman Accidentally Demolishes Biden Defense In Whistleblower Hearing

THURSDAY, JUL 20, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

One of the most basic lessons that we teach law students is that you should “never ask a question you don’t know the answer to.”

The peril of the poorly crafted question was on display in Wednesday’s hearing with two whistleblowers on political interference in the Hunter Biden investigation.

Most Democrats avoided any questions on the substance of the allegations, focusing instead on everything from systemic racism to the use of the term “two-tiered system of justice” and, of course, Donald Trump.

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) often goes where wiser members fear to tread. On this occasion, Goldman may have delivered one of the most damaging moments for the Democrats.

In the course of just a few minutes, the freshman New York congressman seemed to demolish the defense of President Biden.

Goldman was trying to get the witnesses to say that there is no evidence that President Biden was personally involved in the alleged felonies of his son.

He raised the shocking WhatsApp message that Hunter had allegedly sent to a Chinese official with foreign intelligence contacts. In the message, Hunter wrote:

“I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled. Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand, and now means tonight. And, Z, if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you, Zhang, or the chairman, I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.”

Most Democrats have avoided the message, which is incredibly damaging and seems to contradict the President’s long denial of any knowledge or involvement in his son’s dealings.

Goldman pressed veteran IRS investigator Gary Shapley about his suggestion that Joe Biden discussed the foreign dealing with his son. Shapley eagerly said that he would be happy to explain but Goldman cut him off and said that he did not have time for such explanations.

At this point, most lawyers would have reversed engines out of troubled waters, but Goldman plowed full speed ahead.  He said that the references to Joe sitting next to his son does not mean that they actually discussed his business.

Goldman then went even further and raised a “lunch where Joe Biden came to say hello at the Four Season’s hotel to a lunch that he was having with CEFC executives.” He then reads from the record in how Biden associate Rob Walker described the origins of the meeting with the Chinese officials to get his dad to stop by: “Hunter told his Dad that ‘I may be trying to start a company or try to do something with these guys.’ “

Goldman then pounced and said slyly “Now let me ask you something, that doesn’t sound much like Joe Biden was involved in whatever Hunter was doing with the CEFC if Hunter Biden is telling him that he is trying to do business with them, does it?”

That is when Shapley stated the obvious: “No, but it does show that he told his father that he was trying to do business and . . . ”

Goldman finally hears the train whistle and tries to get off the track: “OK, well that is true that Hunter Biden does try to do business, that is correct.”

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Too late. Goldman was citing the testimony of Walker that Joe Biden not only came to a lunch on Hunter’s foreign dealings, but did so after being told that Hunter wanted to lay the foundation for such a deal.

This is the same Joe Biden who has repeatedly told the American people that he never discussed any of Hunter’s deals and had no knowledge of such deals. He has maintained that denial as evidence has mounted contradicting him. Even when he flew his son to China where Hunter cut lucrative deals, he insists that they never mentioned that deal.

There are also repeated references to President Biden as the “Big Guy” in emails who was to receive a 10 percent cut on a deal with the Chinese as well as other benefits. There are other references to Hunter Biden paying portions of his father’s expenses and taxes.

People apparently were told to avoid directly referring to President Biden. In one email, Hunter’s business associate Tony Bobulinski was instructed by Biden associate James Gilliar not to speak of the former veep’s connection to any transactions: “Don’t mention Joe being involved, it’s only when u [sic] are face to face, I know u [sic] know that but they are paranoid.” Bobulinski gave testimony that he met with Joe Biden and discussed these deals with him.

There are also the disclosures that Biden met with at least 14 of Hunter’s business associates from the US, Mexico, Ukraine, China and Kazakhstan over the course of his vice presidency.

Then there is the audiotape message from President Biden for Hunter that specifically discussed coverage of those dealings.

Finally, there is another audiotape of his uncle, Jim Biden, telling Hunter that he and his father had discussed his collapsing financial position and could arrange a “safe harbor.”

The culmination of this evidence was Goldman matter-of-factly eliciting testimony on how Joe Biden came to a lunch with Chinese businessmen after being expressly told it was meant to cut new business deals with them. His son was even thinking of creating a corporation with the Chinese despite a glaring lack of expertise for such a venture.

The meeting was previously described by witnesses and discussed by these whistleblowers, but Goldman brought it all together at the end of the hearing.

Unfortunately, that is when Goldman’s time ran out.

A few more minutes and we might have had an open-and-shut case for the appointment of a special counsel.

END

Trump Could Face ‘Seditious Conspiracy’ Charge In Jan. 6 Probe, Previous Trials Suggest

WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With former President Donald Trump saying that he’s been notified that a Washington-based grand jury is investigating him in relation to the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol protest and breach, a commentator who’s been closely following Jan. 6-related trials is pointing to seditious conspiracy as a charge Mr. Trump likely will face.Former U.S. President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks at the Turning Point Action USA conference in West Palm Beach, Fla., on July 15, 2023. (Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Trump said he was informed of being the target late on July 16 through a letter from the office of Jack Smith, a special counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate Mr. Trump’s involvement in the January 6 incident as well as his retention of documents from his time in the White House.

“This witch hunt is all about election interference and a complete and total political weaponization of law enforcement!” Mr. Trump commented in a July 18 post on Truth Social, his social media platform.

He said he has been given four days to show up before the grand jury; it isn’t clear whether he is being invited to testify voluntarily or subpoenaed.

‘Tactical Move’

Prosecutors should first ask for a voluntary appearance before subpoenaing the target of a criminal investigation, according to the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Justice Manual.

Also, lawyers usually discourage their clients from going before a grand jury if they are the target of the investigation—it can be avoided by invoking the right against self-incrimination under the Fifth Amendment, says Marc Ruskin, a former FBI agent and assistant U.S. attorney.

However, that may be Mr. Smith’s goal, according to Mr. Ruskin.

He noted that Mr. Trump is already facing indictments in New York and Florida and pleading the Fifth in Washington gives another talking point to his opponents.

“It could be a tactical and procedural move just to make him look bad,” he said.

“You have Trump, a former president who is running to be president again, pleading the Fifth. I guess from their point of view, it’s going to help make him less attractive as a candidate.”

If the target is not asked to testify, “the prosecutor, in appropriate cases, is encouraged to notify such person a reasonable time before seeking an indictment in order to afford him or her an opportunity to testify before the grand jury,” the manual says.

Mr. Trump indicated he believes charges against himself are imminent, saying that being told to report to the grand jury, “almost always means an Arrest and Indictment.”

Some commentators have long predicted Mr. Trump will face charges in the probe, including Julie Kelly, an independent journalist who had closely followed the trials of Jan. 6 participants.

“I’ve warned of this for over a year. I take no pride in being right,” she commented in a July 18 tweet.

“Only question now is what charges Smith will bring (strong possibility he’ll seek indictment on seditious conspiracy) and who is charged with him. (Any conspiracy charge requires at least one conspirator).”

In April, she highlighted several members of the pro-Trump Proud Boys group who were convicted of seditious conspiracy. Ms. Kelly believes the DOJ approached the Proud Boys trial in a way that seemed to lay the groundwork for bringing the same charge against Mr. Trump.

During the closing arguments, it seemed to her that prosecutors tried to tie Proud Boys to Mr. Trump, particularly regarding a comment by Mr. Trump during a 2020 presidential debate that the Proud Boys should “stand down and stand by.”

She pointed to a comment by one of the prosecutors that “defendants saw themselves as Donald Trump’s army, fighting to keep their preferred leader in power no matter what.”

“Convictions of 4 members of the Proud Boys set the stage for Smith to pursue a seditious conspiracy indictment against Trump because DOJ made the former president an unindicted co-conspirator of sorts during the trial,” Ms. Kelly told The Epoch Times via text.

Read more here…

THE KING REPORT

The King Report July 20, 2023 Issue 7036

Independent View of the News

Better UK June inflation metrics (CPIH 7.3% y/y, 7.5% expected; CPI 0.1% m/m, 0.4% expected, CPI 7.9% y/y, 8.2% expected: Core CPI 6.9% y/y, 7.1% expected) provoked cries that the BoE must now pivot, which unleashed buying of ESUs and stocks.  The data was released at 2 ET.   ESUs traded negatively in a miniscule 3-handle range from 18:01 ET until they rallied only 7 handles on the release of the UK June inflation data.  ESUs and stocks peaked 9 minutes after the 3 ET European opening.  ESUs then traded in an 8-handle range until they exploded higher at 9:00 ET on the usual buying for the NYSE opening.  By 9:41, ESUs had jumped 18 handles.   ESUs and stocks made minor new highs by 9:09 ET, but they sank when the 2nd hour of NYSE trading arrived.  ESUs fell to 4590.75, -17.75 from high at 10:55 ET.  The rally for the European close then began.    USUs rallied from 127 to 127 18/32 after the release of the UK June inflation data.  They then retreated 14/32 by the 7 ET US bond market opening.  At 7:18 ET, USUs began a rally that created a minor new high of 127 19/32 at 8:28 ET.  USUs then sank to a daily low of 126 22/32 at 10:13 ET.   ESUs and stocks hit new highs when noon ET arrived.  Alas, sellers appeared; ESUs sank 17.00 by 12:31 ET.  There was no impact news.  What was happening?  Tesla, with results due after the close, hit a peak of 299.29 at 11:35 ET.  It then sank to 292.50 at 13:09 ET.  Did someone know the results early?   Netflix also was due to report after the NYSE close.  It vacillated between gains and losses until it sank and stayed in negative territory when the afternoon arrived.   Netflix and Tesla’s declines chilled day traders’ bullish urges.  ESUs and stocks then vacillated until ESUs broke down 8 minutes before the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, which also was settlement for June options.   ESUs hit a bottom of 4589.00 at 4:33 ET.  It was time for the pre-last hour rally, the inculcated buying for the expected last-hour upward manipulation.  Netflix was a huge factor.  It soared from 470.85 near 14:00 ET to 480.80 at 15:05 ET.  Tesla hit a daily low of 289.52 at 14:50 ET.  It bounced to 292.80 at 15:15 ET.  Traders were getting long, or longer, for the post-NYSE close release of Tesla and Netflix’s Q2 results.   ESUs hit 4605.75 at 15:22 ET.  They then tumbled to 4591.50 at the NYSE close.  Someone knew!   Carvana Soars 43% in (opening) 6 Minutes in Redux of Pandemic-Era Frenzy – BBG 14:16 ET The trigger… was a deal to restructure Carvana’s massive pile of debt…Second quarter revenue that beat analysts’ expectations further bolstered the stock… (-0.55 EPS, -1.06 expected)   Mr. Bond, unlike whacky stock jockeys, is not enthused about central banks pivoting because he understands that there is far too much liquidity in the system – and central banks are replicating the error of the mid-seventies when the Fed thought that it could arrest inflation by rate hikes.    When the second inflation wave commenced in the latter ‘70s, CPI and PPI soared far beyond the peaks of the inflation of the early ‘70s.  In October of 1979, Volcker began the trek to arrest inflation by focusing on reserve growth instead of pegging interest rates.   This fostered sharply higher rates, which eventually halted inflation and created decades of respect (fear) for the Fed.   Goldman Profit Plunges as Banking, FICC Miss; CEO DJ Sol Hammered by Multiple Writedowns Goldman’s net income plunged by 65% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter, down from $2.8 billion a year earlier… the top line slumped 8% from a year ago with Global Markets revenue sliding 14%… Return on equity… slid to 4% in the quarter — the worst among the top US banks… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-profit-plunges-banking-ficc-miss-ceo-dj-sol-hammered-multiple-writedowns   After declining as much as 1.7% during the first 25 minutes of NYSE trading, Goldman Sachs rallied to a 2.6% gain (+14.58 from low) by 10:23 ET – despite reporting EPS of 3.08 versus the expected 3.94.   Teamsters issue strike notice at Yellow Missed payment ends employee benefits on Sunday if not cured     The notice said a work stoppage could occur as soon as Monday… https://www.freightwaves.com/news/teamsters-issue-strike-notice-at-yellow   Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied during early US trading, which is now a market staple Bonds rallied sharply after early US weakness   Negative aspects of previous session Stocks peaked near noon ET and then sank; three rallies failed, including the final-hour attempt   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are traders too long for expiration and Q2 results?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4567.21 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4578.43; 4557.48   Biden cuts off funding to Wuhan Institute of Virology linked to COVID-19 outbreak: Report https://t.co/Q2eNOHJiW5   mRNA inventor @RWMaloneMD: The funding that was previously denied to have existed has now been stopped.  Nothing to see here, move on.   Former Harvard University Professor Sentenced for Lying about His Affiliation with Wuhan University of Technology (April 26, 2023) – Dr. Charles Lieber, 64, was sentenced by U.S. Senior District Court Judge Rya W. Zobel to time served (two days) in prison; two years of supervised release with six months of home confinement; a fine of $50,000; and $33,600 in restitution to the IRS. The government recommended a sentence of 90 days in prison and a $150,000 fine… https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/former-harvard-university-professor-sentenced-lying-about-his-affiliation-wuhan   @goddeketal: #3 Childhood Vaccines. While children in the 50s received only 5 doses of vaccines, by 2019 the number had risen to 72 – and the trend is rising. Each vaccination has an impact on the microbiome, which likely leads to significant long-term physical and psychological consequences. https://t.co/BgdSQt0Y9F   Tesla Q2 results: EPS ADJ 91, .85 Basic EPS, .82 expected; Revenue $24.93B, $24.51B expected; Free Cash Flow $1.01B, $2.18B expected.  TSLA sees 1.8m vehicle production for FY, 1.88 expected.  Tesla sank to 282.92.  It then jumped to 296.81 (296.04 close) because TSLA said it will accelerate AI.  Tesla’s invocation of the magic term “AI” mitigated the negativity of Tesla’s admission that its electronic truck is still in “pilot production”; its global inventory is now 16 days, up from 15 days last quarter; and its operating margin fell to 10% from 11.4% q/q due to price cuts.   Netflix Q2 results: EPS 3.29, 2.86 expected; Revenue $8.19B, $8.3B expected ; Streaming Paid Net Change +5.89m, 2.07m expected; NFLX sees Q3 Revenue at $8.52B, $8.67B consensus; Netflix sank to 448.88 (477.59 close); it quickly soared to 495.00 and then rapidly tumbled to 452.50.   @zerohedge: How can NFLX add more than double the estimated subs (it was the 2nd best quarter since covid for new subs), yet miss on revenue?   IBM reports earnings beat, but misses on revenue     Earnings: $2.18, adjusted, versus $2.01 per share expected, according to Refinitiv.     Revenue: $15.48 billion, versus $15.58 billion expected, according to Refinitiv… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/19/ibm-q2-earnings-report-2023.html   IBM initially rallied to 136.46 (135.48 close) on the EPS beat; but it quickly sank to 133.65 on the revenue miss.  But traders and investors are really jiggy now; so IBM rebounded to 136.40.   Today – When there have been strong rallies on Monday thru Wednesday of expiry, Thursday has been soft.  There are no impact earnings (particularly Fangs) due today and stocks acted tired on Wednesday.  Stocks should retreat and rest until tomorrow’s expiration.    Tesla’s after-hours rally turned into a rout last evening.  Tesla sank as low as 277.56.  Netflix’s decline worsened in the evening; it fell as low as 430 31.  ESUs were -14.50 at 19:20 ET on TSLA & NFLX.    Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 240k, Continuing Claims 1.725m; July Phil Fed Business Outlook -10.0; June Existing Home Sales 4.12m; June LEI -0.6%   Expected earnings: JNJ 2.62, TRV 2.08, DHI 2.83, MMC 2.11, FCX .34, GPC 2.32, ABT 1.05, NEM .44, AAL 1.58, PM 1.47, COF 3.27, CSX .49   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4312; 100-day MA: 4177; 150-day MA: 4111; 200-day MA: 4044 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,789; 100-day MA: 33,438; 150-day MA: 33,492; 200-day MA: 33,167 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4256.94 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4474.37 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4548.44 triggers a sell signal   @CollinRugg: The identity of ‘Whistleblower X’ who claims that Hunter Biden should have been charged with a tax felony has been identified as Joseph Ziegler, a gay Democrat who worked in the IRS investigative division for over a decade.  In his opening statement, Ziegler accuses the Department of Justice of obstructing the probe against Hunter Biden: “I will also note that while the impression has been conveyed by the US attorney in Delaware, that he has similar powers to that of a special counsel, in this case, free reign to do as needed. That was not the case. It appeared to me based on what I experienced, that the US attorney in Delaware in our investigation was constantly hamstrung, limited and marginalized by DOJ officials as well as other US attorneys.” https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1681722824678060032   @CBS_Herridge: “What do you have to gain from coming forward?” @CBS_Herridge asks IRS whistleblower Joseph Ziegler in a @CBSNews exclusive. “I do this with a heavy heart… That’s the only way we’re going to restore the confidence in our justice system,” he says. https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1681795144884842496   @ CBSNews: EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden IRS whistleblower Joseph Ziegler tells @CBS_Herridge that anytime IRS investigators potentially wanted to ask questions related to President Biden, they were told “That’s gonna take too much approvals. We can’t ask those questions.” https://cbsn.ws/3K639Lt   @JonathanTurley: Dem Rep. Goldman just tripped the wire on Joe Biden. In trying to grill the whistleblowers to show that there is no evidence that Joe Biden was involved, he elicited an answer that the witnesses established that Joe Biden did discuss business deals of Hunter with the Chinese.    Goldman was trying to show that the witnesses did not mention a substantive role of Joe Biden, Shapley immediately noted that it did mean that he came to discuss one of the Hunter’s deals. The President continues to deny that fact.  Unfortunately, time ran out. With a few more minutes along this line, Goldman could well have sealed the case for the appointment of a Special Counsel.   @VigilantFox : Damning Case Against Joe Biden Was Just Made That He Was a Business Partner of Hunter Biden’s –  GOP Rep. BIGGS: “Mr. Ziegler … you mentioned that Hunter Biden attempted to obtain a business tax deduction on his return for hotel rooms that were used by his father, Joe Biden.” ZIEGLER: “So for that to be a valid business deduction, he would have to be doing business with Hunter Biden.”  SHAPLEY: “Generally speaking, to be a valid business deduction, it would have to be some type of business activity being conducted at that time.” https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1681769858185216000   @ggreenwald: From the start — meaning the two NY Post stories on Oct 13, 2020 — the key to the Hunter Biden archive was it revealed *Joe Biden’s* involvement* in business deals Hunter was pursuing in China and Ukraine.  That’s why CIA created the lie that it was “Russian disinformation.”   GOP @laurenboebert: The Biden family owned over TWENTY shell companies to move money through. Let’s remember that the Bidens aren’t a family that produce anything. They don’t make cars, build buildings or produce some product. When we’re talking about the Biden family’s business we’re talking about INFLUENCE PEDDLING.   GOP @RepJasonSmith: Whistleblower Gary Shapley said DOJ prosecutors and even U.S. Attorney David Weiss thought Hunter Biden should be charged with multiple FELONIES. Yet, Hunter’s sweetheart plea deal only included a few MISDEMEANORS. Wonder what changed?   GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene displays sexually graphic images during whistleblower hearing Ziegler confirmed that Hunter had listed a tax deduction for a payment to a golf club that the investigation determined to have in fact been a “sex club” but declined to elaborate.    When it fell to Greene to question the pair, the conservative firebrand held up the images, supposedly recovered from Hunter Biden’s laptop, which featured the first son and other individuals engaging in sexual acts, with the other participants’ identities censored… Ziegler confirmed that Hunter had listed a tax deduction for a payment to a golf club that the investigation determined to have in fact been a “sex club”… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/marjorie-taylor-greene-displays-sexually-graphic-images-during-whistleblower   @libsoftiktok: Democrats get upset and try to silence @RepMTG as she shows images of Hunter Biden with prostitutes, claiming it’s “unbecoming.”  These are the same people who want to keep porn available to kids in schools.  https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1681763859139293189   GOP Rep. Gaetz stumps Air Force general on gender identity labels: ‘I’m not really sure’ Air Force Academy superintendent did not know what ‘demigender’ meant     Lt. Gen. Richard M. Clark was unable to define gender identity terms like “agender” and “demigender” that were listed in eligibility guidelines for a fellowship that’s open to Air Force cadets and other Americans, something Gaetz noted during their heated exchange… “So, here we are, pushing a fellowship calling for people that you don’t even know what the words mean,” Gaetz said… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gaetz-air-force-general-gender-identity-labels   @RNCResearch: Democrat Rep. Kweisi Mfume claims the DOJ, FBI, and IRS exist to “keep this democracy in check”: “They provide the checks and they provide the balances!” (Wrong on multi-levels) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1681759311482044420   Illinois delegated control over its ‘ban on book bans’ to an organization now run by a self-described Marxist  https://wirepoints.org/illinois-delegated-control-over-its-ban-on-book-bans-to-an-organization-now-run-by-a-self-described-marxist-wirepoints/   The Stanford Daily’s Theo Baker @tab_delete : Stanford president to resign his post, retract “at least” 3 papers, after our reporting in @StanfordDaily exposed multiple papers with data manipulation and his refusal to retract studies when given opportunities over the course of 2 decades. https://stanforddaily.com/2023/07/19/stanford-president-resigns-over-manipulated-research-will-retract-at-least-3-papers/   Liberals rage at In-N-Out Burger after fast food chain bans masks for employees https://www.foxnews.com/media/liberals-rage-in-n-out-burger-fast-food-chain-bans-masks-employees   Obviously for some people, wearing masks is a necessary act of obeisance to big government.

GREG HUNTER

I will see you on FRIDAY