JULY 31.FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER CONTRACT: GOLD CLOSED UP $9.50 TO $1970.75 WHILE SILVER HAD A GOOD DAY AS WELL UP 45 CENTS TO $24,81//PLATINUM WAS UP $15.00 TO $953.10 WITH PALLADIUM UP $41.90 TO $1286.15//ACCORDING TO TED BUTLER A SILVER WHALE IS STANDING FOR DELIVERY OF 50 MILLION OZ//IMPORTANT READS TODAY JOHN RUBINO (2 COMMENTARIES)//ROBERT LAMBOURNE REPORTS ON THE GOLD SWAPS WITH THE BIS VS USA AND THEY ARE DOWN HUGELY TO 87 TONNES//NIGER SUSPENDS URANIUM AND GOLD EXPORTS//EU GROWTH REBOUNDS BY CORE INFLATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN STICKY// EU ADVISORY BOARD RECOMMENDS THAT HUNGARY DOES NOT TAKE THE PRESIDENCY ON ITS ROTATION SCHEDULE//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//VACCINE //COVID UPDATES//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//YELLOW CARRIER FINALLY GOES CAPUT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
072 C GOLDMAN 407 1 072 C GOLDMAN 19 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 678 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 7 132 C SG AMERICAS 5 132 C SG AMERICAS 49 152 C DORMAN TRADING 6 190 H BMO CAPITAL 2 190 H BMO CAPITAL 1266 190 H BMO CAPITAL 111 323 C HSBC 1280 97 323 C HSBC 9 357 C WEDBUSH 9 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 59 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 671 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 2 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1007 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 89 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 27 661 C JP MORGAN 2477 1576 661 C JP MORGAN 139
DLV615-T CME CLEARING BUSINESS DATE: 07/28/2023 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 07/28/2023 PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 23:18:17 661 C JP MORGAN 3 661 H JP MORGAN 451 685 C RJ OBRIEN 5 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 2 690 C ABN AMRO 1 690 C ABN AMRO 8 10 709 C BARCLAYS 191 709 C BARCLAYS 17 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 10 737 C ADVANTAGE 22 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 800 C MAREX SPEC 1 880 C CITIGROUP 1 905 C ADM 34 19 905 C ADM 28 2
TOTAL: 5,402 5,402 MONTH TO DATE: 5,402
JPMorgan stopped 1715/5402 contracts.
FOR AUGUST:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 5402 NOTICES FOR 540200 OZ or 16.802 TONNES
total notices so far: 540,200 contracts for 540,200 oz (16.802 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 482 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2,410,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 482 for 2,410,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $9.50
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.45 AT THE SLV// small CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF184,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.746 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1968 CONTRACTS TO 143,298 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GOOD $0.15 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A TINY SIZED 194 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 194 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.15). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS, DESPITE A HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1889CONTRACTS, ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 79 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) // // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALL NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (194CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –136 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 days, total 17,149 contracts: OR 85.745 MILLION OZ (902 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 85.745 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1968 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.15 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 79 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF1889 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL 194//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (194) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 482 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,410,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,583 CONTRACTS TO 446,459 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 1716 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 12,583CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $14.65 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 443 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $14.65 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,811 OI CONTRACTS (33.626 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1772CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 446,459
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,811 CONTRACTS WITH 12,583 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1772 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,811CONTRACTS OR 33.626 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL 443 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1772 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (12,583) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,811 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 443 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 48,769 CONTRACTS OR 4,876,900 OZ OR 151.69 TONNES IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2566 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 151.69 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 151.69/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST:
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1968 CONTRACTS OI TO 143,298 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 79 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 79and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 79 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1968 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 79 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1889 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.445 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.11 PTS OR 0.46% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 162.38 PTS OR 0.92% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 412.97 PTS OR 1.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.08 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1140 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1566 /Oil UP TO 81.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.09 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,583CONTRACTS DOWN TO 446,459 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.65 ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1772 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 1772 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1772 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 10,811 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1772LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 12,583 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.65//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL 443 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (30.656) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 30.656 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $14.65) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS, DESPITE THE STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,811 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION WHICH BASICALLY TOOK CARE OF THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 33.626 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $14.65.
WE HAD – REMOVED 1716 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,811 CONTRACTS OR 1,081,100 OZ OR 33.626 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5402 notices 540200 OZ 16.802 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposit:
i)Into ASAHI 32,013.840 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,013.840 oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks: 160,079.83 oz (4979 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 160,079.83 oz
Adjustments; 1 / dealer to customer Manfra: 52,663.338 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 9856 contracts having LOST 11,459 contracts.
Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing for this big delivery month of August is as follows:
9856 notices x 100 oz per notice = 985,600 0z or 30.656 tonnes/rather small for August.
SEPT gained 863 contracts to stand at 2427
October gained 53 contracts to 31,831.
We had 5402 contracts filed for today representing 540,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 2477 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5402 contract(s) of which 139 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1577 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5402 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (9856 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 5402 x 100 oz per contract equals 985,600 OZ OR 30.656 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUSTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (5402) x 100 oz + (9856) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (5402) x 100 oz) which equals 985,600 oz standing OR 30.656 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 30.656 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,209,687.181 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,102,270.124 (376,43 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,107,417.057 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,071,849 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 313.27 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 31
//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
669.121.918 oz
Delaware loomis CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
487,962,250 oz ASAHI
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
3,341,619.215 oz Brinks Delaware JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
482 CONTRACT(S) (2,4100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
139 contracts (695,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
482 Contracts (2,410,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into ASAHI: 487,962.250 oz
total dealer deposit: 487,962.250 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 2504,849.200 oz
ii) Into Delaware 257,172.950 oz
iii Into jPMorgan: 579,597.065 oz
total customer deposits: 3,341,597.065 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.910 million oz/281.695 million =49.91% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Delaware 513,968.668 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 100,163.450 oz
iii) Out of CNT: 55,009.800 oz
total: 669,121.918 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 32.760 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 281.695 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 621 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 167 CONTRACT(S).
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST IS AS FOLLOWS:
621 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE = 3,105,000 OZ
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 3449 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 112,827
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 482 for 2,410,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 44,496 poor /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 42,457 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 482 x 5,000 oz = 2,410,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (621) and the number of notices served upon today 482 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 482 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (621) – number of notices served upon today (482 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.105 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 912.93 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
Remember those scary charts of the US government’s rising interest expense? Here’s an example from a few months ago, when the annualized cost of our national debt was approaching $900 billion:
Well, that wasn’t the peak. The latest reading shows interest payments approaching $1 trillion.
And that’s not the end. Not even close. The current average interest rate for Treasury paper is around 5%, so as existing notes and bonds come due and are rolled over, the total carrying cost will rise inexorably towards $1.7 trillion ($35 trillion x 5%) — all of which will be borrowed, turbocharging the increase in total debt, pushing interest costs even higher, and so on.
Looking back on the collapse of our globe-spanning military empire, historians will cite charts like the above to illustrate the point where things spun out of control. And we’re here to see it, yay! (That’s irony — or maybe sarcasm — in case you’re not sure.)
The Kobeissi Letter publishes a lot of interesting financial threads on Twitter and is currently running some relevant charts. Here’s a longer-term projection for US interest expense:
And here’s the same data series expressed as a percentage of total tax revenues:
Never gonna happen
These long-term charts are interesting but unrealistic. Parabolic trends contain the seeds of their own demise, and fiscal chaos of the type now playing out will lead capital to flee to safer havens sooner rather than later. Put another way, who in their right mind would view the paper of a government with these kinds of trends as a worthy investment?
On the other side of this debate, there’s the TINA (there is no alternative) argument, which states that sure, American finances are a mess, but where else are you going to go? That’s a legitimate point and probably explains why the dollar is still a reserve currency despite decades of debasement. But it’s not a permanent defense, and will end when the numbers start to look unmanageable. Which they kind of do now.
For a while there, the Japanese government had a sweet deal going. By pushing interest rates into negative territory — which forced bond buyers to pay for the privilege of owning said bonds — it was able to earn money on its national debt.
So the more the government borrowed, the more it earned. And borrow it did, with government debt as a percentage of GDP rising to levels unprecedented in modern history.
But then came inflation, which made negative-yielding bonds untenable. Japan was forced to allow 10-year rates to rise, first to 0.25%, then to 0.5%. And last week this happened:
Japan’s central bank on Friday loosened its yield curve control, underscoring concerns about its protracted monetary easing on financial markets and the real economy.
In a policy statement, the Bank of Japan said it will continue to allow 10-year Japanese government bond yields to fluctuate in the range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from its 0% target level — though it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1% through fixed-rate operations. This move effectively expands its tolerance by a further 50 basis points.
The BOJ pledged to “conduct yield curve control with greater flexibility, regarding the upper and lower bounds of the range as references, not as rigid limits, in its market operations,” citing the need to remain nimble given “extremely high uncertainties for Japan’s economic activity and prices.”
The markets correctly interpreted this as a further capitulation, and 10-year yields spiked to .6% (amazing to be writing that an interest rate “spiked” to .6%).
Japan’s average interest rate is still tolerably low thanks to its “yield curve control” policy of keeping short-term rates lower than long-term. But for those short rates to stay low, the yen has to remain stable versus other currencies. That is, a falling yen would force the Bank of Japan to raise rates to prevent a currency crisis.
How’s that working out? So far, not so good. The yen is down about 10% versus the USD this year, and the trajectory is ominous.
When, not if
Is Japan’s bond market (and by implication its government) about to implode? Probably not right away. But all trends point in that direction. A debt and/or currency crisis remains a “when” not “if” proposition.
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
END
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1555
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1580
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.26 PTS OR 1.84%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.41%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 131.93 PTS OR 0.40%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.22 EURO RISES TO 1.1107 UP 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.558 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.13/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.433***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.067*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.471…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.750
3j Gold at $1955.85 silver at: 24.28 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 43 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.02//
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.13// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.558% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8679 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9555 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.961 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.018 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.877 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 5 BASIS PTS AT 4.350
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.26 PTS OR 1.84% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.41% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 131.93 PTS OR 0.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.74 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1555 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1580 /Oil UP TO 79.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.88 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/YCC
BOJ’s Yield Curve Control “Tweak” Ends In Disaster As Yen Tumbles, JGB Yields Soar
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 02:00 PM
Last Friday, ahead of the BOJ’s surprise Yield Curve Control tweak, we predicted that not even the BOJ – a central bank that has traditionally won the Olympics in monetary policy stupidity – would be so mentally challenged as to pursue the type of half-assed YCC “tweak” that the Nikkei had leaked just hours earlier. After all, it should have been obvious to most – we thought – that a non-tweak tweak such as the one we learned the BOJ may was contemplating, would achieve nothing in terms of propping up the yen (the clear intention of Ueda, who is terrified of seeing the USDJPY rise to 150 again), while it would certainly blow up the JGB market, and set the BOJ on collision course with an even bigger bond market disaster while at the same time sparking even more aggressive yen selling.
Alas, we were wrong and the BOJ again managed to shock us – and the market – with its stupidity, when on Friday it decided to engage in a half-pregnant YCC “tweak”, one where it would still keep the 10Y target at 0.5% but raise the JGB intervention “strict cap” from the old 0.50% level to anywhere between 0.5% and 1.0%.
And for timestamp purposes, we made it clear that this would be another catastrophic decision by the central bank that will be the first to lose control of everything.
Just to be clear, we also predicted that the latest “tweak” would promptly break the JGB market while doing nothing to contain the collapsing yen, which is driven as much by the market’s outlook on how likely Japan is to normalize, as it is by the staggering yield differentials between the yen (-0.1%) and every other currency pair (the US is now at 5.50%), resulting in the juiciest carry trade in history.
Anyway, while we may have been wrong in underestimating the BOJ’s stupidity and pursuing a YCC “tweak”, we were absolutely correct in predicting what will happen if the BOJ went ahead with said “tweak” and just one day later, the 10Y JGB blew out by more than 10bps, which may sound small but for the economy with the centrally-planned bond market, this was the third biggest spike in the past decade.
What happened next was the second biggest surprise by the BOJ in the past two days: with yields spiking to a fresh nine-year high in morning trading, in hopes of containing the bond rout which we warned was coming,the BOJ announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to contain the JGB crash, saying it would buy the equivalent of more than $2 billion bonds at market rates, just as we had joked it would a day earlier.
It was the first time since February that the BOJ had barged into the bond market this way, suggesting that it will continue to smooth any sharp upward moves. And while the 10-year yield dropped back below 0.6%, the yen quickly reversed its advance against the dollar as FX traders realized that any attempts at tightening would lead to a collapse in the bond market, just as we warned they would. In fact, after dropping as low as 138 in the minutes after the BOJ’s Friday morning announcement as a wrong kneejerk reaction dominated the Mrs. Watanabe trading flow, the USDJPY has since blown out as high as 142.50, almost 500 pips higher in 2 days!
As Bloomberg put it, “the aggressive purchases are another reminder that Japan’s slow retreat from ultra-loose monetary policy brings a heightened risk of volatility and intervention across multiple asset classes globally. It also underscores the challenge in interpreting a rates regime that is built on gray lines to let the BOJ be flexible rather than clarity for markets.”
“That flexibility is obtained with opaqueness on when they intervene,” said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors Pte in Singapore. “Flexibility is another word for optionality, which potentially manifests as volatility. No one knows exactly when, between 0.5 to 1%, does the BOJ step in meaningfully, which is an awfully wide range.”
Well, we now know: 0.6% is where the BOJ’s valiant effort at normalization draws a red line. In other words: a whopping 10bps move higher which somehow is supposed to contain Japan’s 3% inflation.
Hilariously, after spending all of Friday praising the BOJ’s “bold” decision, the chorus flipped overnight, and all those who predicted the USDJPY would collapse to 130 in hours, suddenly changed their tune with some BOJ watchers going beyond what even we said, noting that the YCC band is now so wide as to render the notion of a zero target largely meaningless. Yet Monday’s operation also shows that the BOJ can come into the markets at any time.
“Unscheduled operation was a surprise,” said Keiko Onogi, senior JGB strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo. “The action is probably aimed at slowing the speed of yield gains after a sharp rally in the yields, and before a 10-year bond auction Tuesday.”
Speaking after Friday’s policy adjustment, Governor Kazuo Ueda had said he didn’t expect yields to get to 1% under current circumstances. The view of many Tokyo-based economists is for 10-year yields to settle around 0.7%-0.8% by year-end, with some pointing to 1% as more likely next year than anytime soon. That, however, does little to contain the collapse in the yen, while assuring massive periodic injections of liquidity which will weaken the yen well beyond 145.
“In the near term, 10-year yields may face upward pressure, and the BOJ will try to calm that with unscheduled JGB purchase operations,” said Shigeto Nagai, Japan head of Oxford Economics.
Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Nomura Securities Co., expects “the next policy move from the BOJ to be the end of negative rates and YCC around April to June” when it is sure of sustainable inflation and wage gains. Good luck with that.
The most apocalyptic take on the entire YCC “tweak” disaster came from Win Thin, the top FX strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, who appears was reading Zerohedge when commenting in a Bloomberg TV interview.
Paraphrasing what we have been saying for the past week,
The Bank of Japan’s surprise move to ease its yield curve control program was a “half-hearted attempt” to alter policy and will only weigh on the Japanese yen going forward, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.’s top currency strategist.
Realizing that the BOJ is now chasing after the impossible trinity that crippled China’s monetary policy, Thin told Bloomberg that “You can’t have free capital flows and also control interest rates and exchange rates. The Bank of Japan is trying to do all three.”
Repeating what we said almost verbatim, the FX strategist said that the central bank’s policy decision Friday was a “very puzzling move” – “They kept the yield curve control and kept the target, but they made it a moving target in terms of the upper limit. It was a halfhearted attempt, I think, to do something.”
And the punchline: “I think they squandered a lot of credibility for really a lot of nothing.” Equity market gains and the yen’s retreat since Friday “tells me the markets really don’t believe the Bank of Japan,” Thin added.
“Where it is going to lead is the currency rate. That’s where pressure is going to be let out. I am more convinced than ever that we should buy dollar-yen” he said, and we completely agree as we explained last Friday. Not surprisingly, the BBH strategist sees USD/JPY going to 145 “if not higher.” Spoiler alert: it will be much higher.
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//AFRICA
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
SLAY NEWS
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
VACCINE IMPACT/
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FMONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1007 UP 0.0030
USA/ YEN 139.13 UP 0.270 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2867 UP 0.0074
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3224 DOWN .0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 50.26 PTS OR 1.84%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.44%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.74 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.44%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.26 PTS OR 1.84%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.74%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 131.93 PTS OR 0.40%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1955.95
silver:$24,29
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.22 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1486
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1496)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.95 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.561…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.968% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.022 UP 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 1.51 points or 0.02%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 63.72 PTS OR 0.39%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 11.23 PTS OR 0.15%
Spain IBEX DOWN 9.60 PTS OR 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 97.61 PTS OR 0.33%
WTI Oil price 80.19 12: EST
Brent Oil: 83.00 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 91.86 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 17//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4590 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.365 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1010 UP 0.0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2855 UP .0062 or 62 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3735 % UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .556%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.09 DOWN 2.23 //YEN DOWN 223 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3237 UP .0000 CDN dollar, DOWN 00 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.40
Brent OIL: 84.75
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 3.968%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.026%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.893%
USA dollar index: 101.43 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.92 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.71 DOWN 1 AND 11/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 176.24 PTS OR 0.50%
NASDAQ 100 UP 286.00 PTS OR 1.85%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.31 DOWN 1.10 PTS (7.63)%
GLD: $181.86 UP 1.44 OR 0.80%
SLV/ $22.32 UP .21 OR 0.95%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//
II) USA DATA/
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS
END.
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
GREG HUNTER..
SEE YOU TOMORROW
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JP Morgan forecasts $2,000 gold by the end of the year with the price continuing to rise to record highs in 2024.
In his latest note, JP Morgan executive director of global commodities research Greg Shearer projects the price of gold will average around $2,175 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2024. That would represent an 11% increase from the current price.
Shearer anticipates the end of the Federal Reserve hiking cycle after the July meeting with a cut likely by mid-2024. He said there is even further upside potential for the yellow metal if the US economy falls into a recession. The deeper the recession, the more the Fed will have to cut interest rates, which is more supportive of gold.
We’re in a very prime place where we think gold ownership and long allocation to gold and silver is something that acts as both a late cycle diversifier and something that will perform as we look to the next sort of 12, 18 months.”
With much stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and continued labor market strength, a growing number of people in the mainstream now think the US has escaped the clutches of a recession despite the Fed driving interest rates to the highest level in 16 years. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said staff economists at the central bank now project a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year, “But given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.”
But there are plenty of signs that a recession is looming, including 15 consecutive drops in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the most consecutive negative prints since 2007-2008), an inverted yield curve, and a rising number of corporate defaults.
Given the fact that the Fed has taken away the economy’s lifeblood – easy money – a deep recession seems more likely than not. The economy was built on artificially low-interest rates and quantitative easing. We saw what happens to an over-leveraged economy when the Fed takes away the easy money back in 2008. The situation is much worse today than it was then, with more debt and more malinvestments.
According to JP Morgan’s mid-year forecast, analysts anticipate gold prices to average around $2,012 an ounce in the second half of this year.
Shearer said money managers have increased net-long positions in gold futures this year, but the trade still is not too crowded.
He also said institutional buying will boost strong retail demand as central banks continue to diversify away from the dollar and hedge against geopolitical risk.
There’s an eagerness here to really buy in and diversify allocation away from currencies.”
Overall, global central bank gold reserves increased by 228 tons in the first quarter of 2023. This was 38% higher than the previous first-quarter record set in 2013.
According to the 2023 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey released by the World Gold Council, 24% of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months. Seventy-one percent of central banks surveyed believe the overall level of global reserves will increase in the next 12 months. That was a 10-point increase over last year.
The bank’s gold swap position is estimated to be 87 tonnes as of June 30, down 101 tonnes from 188 at May 31 and 135 tonnes at April 30.
The bank’s gold swaps had fallen to zero as of December 31, 2022.
Once again it seems probable that the BIS has entered these swaps on behalf of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The basic transaction that the BIS is believed to undertake is to swap dollars for gold transferred from a bullion bank and then deposit this gold in a gold sight account at a central bank, presumed to be the U.S. Federal Reserve but almost certainly being the central bank that is using the BIS to execute the gold swap on its behalf.
Given the recent volatility, most BIS gold swaps are probably of short duration. Why a central bank needs the BIS to undertake these gold swaps isn’t clear, but the swaps are likely connected with short-term trading needs, which could include suppressing the gold price.
The gold price fell to $1,920 at June 30 from $1,966 at May 31 (per USAGold.com) and so the decline in gold swaps may be related to efforts to drive the gold price down in June. Much of GATA’s research on gold price suppression indicates that an active policy of price suppression began more than 30 years ago and was meant primarily to suppress interest rates. This article from 2005 is relevant and highlights work in this area by former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers:
In this context the following report issued by GATA in 2007 concerning an analysis of the gold market by Frank Veneroso is really worth reading again as it confirms that GATA’s primary assertions are plausible.
Using the June 30 gold price of $1,920, the 87 tonnes of BIS gold swaps are valued at about $5.4 billion. (Their value at May 31 was about $11.9 billion.) So the recent trading in BIS gold swaps is of high monetary value and shows that gold remains a significant monetary asset still actively traded by central banks.
As ever with the BIS, it remains unlikely that more information about the reasons for the bank to undertake these transactions will ever be provided. This secrecy implies that central bank gold policy involves much deception — that it is currency market intervention for one or more central banks for which the BIS provides camouflage.
For example, the BIS’ recently published 2023 Annual Report —
— does not provide any information on the gold swaps other than confirming that gold swaps covering 77 tonnes were in place as of March 31, 2023. This compares to an original estimate made by GATA of 78 tonnes:
The worsening finances of Western nations, especially the United States, may reduce the appeal to the BIS of undertaking gold swaps and possibly even the appeal of swaps to the central bank or banks for which the BIS has been acting. So a report issued by GATA in 2012 is worth revisiting as it highlights the acknowledgment of gold price suppression by a former chairman of the BIS, Jelle Zijlstra, a Dutch politician, economist, and central banker. It seems likely that BIS management understands what the swaps are being used for and why they must be camouflaged:
The continuing conundrum facing the Federal Reserve about raising dollar interest rates should reduce the appeal to the Fed of having to return swapped gold. Despite its rhetoric about pushing interest rates higher, the Fed needs to avoid more erosion of confidence in the U.S. Treasuries market when the U.S. government’s ever-increasing debt has been so controversial recently. The Treasury Department’s June report demonstrates three continuing adverse trends that seem to be worsening: lower cumulative revenues than during the same period a year ago, higher cumulative expenditures, and much higher interest costs aided by the higher interest rates set by the Fed. The Treasury’s June report shows receipts of $418 billion compared to $461 billion in June 2022 and outlays of $646 billion compared to $550 billion in June 2022.
The cumulative interest charge on the externally held debt of the U.S. government is up by 39% at June 30 compared to the same period in 2022 and indicates the problem caused for U.S. government borrowing by higher interest rates. At May 31, 2023, the comparable increase was 33%, so it is clear that there is a worsening trend in outgoing interest on borrowings.
In these circumstances the room for the Fed to raise interest rates much more seems restricted and hence it seems that the BIS and some of its shareholders might be questioning the role of the bank in these swaps and the obligation to make future deliveries of gold, since the Fed may be unable to move interest rates high enough to contain inflation. One factor is the evidence of recently increased prices for oil and a possible trend of yet higher prices because of falling U.S. oil production.
Indeed, a cynic might claim that the recent suspension of the federal government’s debt ceiling makes it easier to defend a banking crisis by allowing the U.S. government to offer additional bank deposit guarantees. The debt ceiling deal may even make a revaluation of gold easier for the United States to carry out.
As is clear from Table B below, BIS gold swaps were significantly higher in the first half of last year, and the October and December totals were easily the lowest in more than four years.
* * *
Table A below highlights the level of gold swaps reported in the annual reports of the BIS back to 2010, when the bank’s use of gold swaps appears to have begun. At only one year-end since then, in March 2016, has the swap level been zero.
The BIS’ recently published 2023 annual report, cited above, discloses that the BIS still holds 102 tonnes of its own gold and that few of its activities in derivatives involve central banks. An assumption that the gold held by the BIS remains at 102 tonnes has been used to make the estimate of the bank’s gold swap level for December. The low level of derivatives reported by the BIS using central banks as counterparties at the year end seems a sensible reason to assume that the swaps are almost certainly done with gold bullion banks rather than central banks. Historically, the first swaps described below were done with bullion banks.
* * *
… Historical context …
The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.
The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.
The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.
The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:
A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:
The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this is changing.
As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.
If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosure made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.
A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.
No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.
This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.
The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS has facilitated it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for the return of gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests of a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.
As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.
The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) was higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 were at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.
—–
Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports
March 2010: 346 tonnes. March 2011: 409 tonnes. March 2012: 355 tonnes. March 2013: 404 tonnes. March 2014: 236 tonnes. March 2015: 47 tonnes. March 2016: 0 tonnes. March 2017: 438 tonnes. March 2018: 361 tonnes. March 2019: 175 tonnes March 2020: 326 tonnes March 2021: 490 tonnes March 2022: 358 tonnes March 2023: 77 tonnes
—–
The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.
—–
Table B — Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 78 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 77 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
** The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
—–
As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:
Despite this reticence the BIS has almost certainly acted on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors. Historically, the BIS has often acted on behalf of the Federal Reserve.
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.
As mentioned above, it is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
END
BIS inadvertently confirms accuracy of GATA’s penetration of gold swap data
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-31 00:01Section: Daily Dispatches
11:58p ET Sunday, July 30, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA’s consultant about the Bank for International Settlements, Robert Lambourne, was too modest to make a big deal of it tonight in his update about the bank’s intervention in the gold market via gold swaps —
— but the bank’s annual report inadvertently has confirmed the longstanding accuracy of his analysis.
For years now the BIS has been surreptitiously intervening in the gold market for one or more of its central bank members, with its gold swap totals being the only clear documentation of the interventions. So of course the BIS doesn’t report the swaps plainly in its monthly statement of account.
No, the BIS swaps total is made plain only once a year, and for only one month, in the bank’s annual report. Lambourne strives to report the bank’s swaps on a monthly basis, and this involves laborious calculations from data in the bank’s monthly statements.
As Lambourne reported tonight, the BIS’ recently published annual report for 2023 acknowledged 77 tonnes of gold swaps as of March 31. See Page 185 of the annual report here:
Despite the thick smokescreen the BIS maintains, Lambourne’s estimate was off by just 1 tonne, a difference that likely could have been caused by variations in gold price reports at the end of the month in question.
No one outside central banking (and presumably government intelligence agencies) monitors this documentation of gold market intervention except for GATA’s Lambourne. The BIS’ camouflaged swaps data is recurring proof that central banks — or at least a powerful one — strive to rig the gold market to prevent the monetary metal from returning to its proper place as the measure of government currencies and government financial probity.
No mainstream financial news organization will touch this data. It’s just too sensitive. Even the wonderfully anti-establishment news and commentary site Zero Hedge won’t touch it.
But the gold swap data reveals more about financial reality on Planet Earth than anything else — reveals that all financial values are rigged by an essentially totalitarian system and not determined by markets — and thanks to Lambourne the data is available only from GATA.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Pakistan desires a physical gold exchange and the legal importing of gold.
Alam (Dawn/Karachi)
Pakistan exchange aspires to physical gold trading, legal importing
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-07-29 14:19Section: Daily Dispatches
By Kazim Alam Dawn, Karachi, Pakistan Saturday, July 29, 2023
KARACHI, Pakistan — The Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX) is planning to introduce the trading of physical gold on its platform in a nationwide bid to “document” and “regularise” the selling and buying of the precious metal at the retail level.
Speaking to Dawn in an interview, PMEX Managing Director Ejaz Ali Shah said the country’s only futures exchange is “talking very aggressively” with the government to set up an official gold market on its platform
Pakistan doesn’t import gold officially, on the longstanding pretext of a dollar shortage. A handout from the Senate of Pakistan quoted Salman Hanif, chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Association, as telling a subcommittee of the Standing Committee on Commerce that gold’s annual consumption hovers between “150 to 200 tonnes” in Pakistan despite a ban on its imports.
In other words, gold is mainly smuggled into the country to meet fresh demand that can’t be fulfilled by reusing the existing jewellery and gold bars.
“Gold is actually an international currency. So when you buy gold, you also get a dollar hedge. … Yet the gold market at present is completely unorganised,” he said, adding that ideally all gold should be imported by the PMEX.
Subsequently, jewellers and retailers should access gold supplies from the platform of the exchange, Mr. Shah said.
In addition to the government, the PMEX is in talks with the Pakistan Gems and Jewellery Traders and Exporters Association, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, and the State Bank of Pakistan for the creation of an official gold market on the PMEX.
The futures exchange has also devised a mechanism for the deposit and withdrawal of physical gold for the retail segment to better manage the country’s “strategic asset.”
The PMEX CEO said progress on the initiative has slowed down in recent months because of the change in government.
“Gold exists in huge quantities in Pakistan,” Shah said. “If we organise this asset, we can gain great financial strength at the international level. Having large gold reserves means we should get more favourable terms while borrowing dollars from the rest of the world. We can issue gold-backed bonds.”
END
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
this is big! Ted Butler spots a new silver whale standing for delivery.
BIX WEIR…
ALERT! Ted Butler Spots 50M Ounce SILVER WHALE! Is it Musk, Buffett or a SILVER KNIGHT! (Bix Weir)
In the Silver Battle between the Good Guys and Bad Guys it looks like we have a “Silver Whale” that is quietly accumulating as many COMEX contracts as the Main Bad Guy is shorting!!
50 Million Ounces is the current number as pointed out by Ted Butler.
The CFTC will find it hard to shut this buyer down as he is only mimicking the identical Large Silver Short in the Managed Money Category!
BRING ON THE SILVER KNIGHTS!!
ALERT! Ted Butler Spots 50M Ounce SILVER WHALE! Is it Musk, Buffett or a SILVER KNIGHT! (Bix Weir)
END
RED ALERT! Heartland Tri-State Bank Fails! Uninsured Depositor BAILED OUT by the FDIC!! (Bix Weir)
The first failure of the 2023 Round 2 bank failures has hit and, as predicted, the FDIC is hiding the bailout of Uninsured Depositors!
This time it was declared by the Kansas Bank Examiner to be an “Isolated Event” and the “Kansas banking industry is strong!”
HA!
The FDIC is expecting a loss of 40% of their deposits and have guaranteed toI cover the losses for the takeover bank!!
That’s a Back-Door bailout of Uninsured Depositors!!
RED ALERT! Heartland Tri-State Bank Fails! Uninsured Depositors BAILED OUT by the FDIC!! (Bix Weir)
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1111
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1566
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.11 PTS OR 0.46%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 162,38 PTS OR 0.82%
2. Nikkei closed UP 412.99 PTS OR 1.26%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.48 EURO RISES TO 1.1129 UP 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.592 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.13/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4675***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.098*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.513…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.7250
3j Gold at $1958.00 silver at: 24.35 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 13 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.57//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.13// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.592% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8710 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9607 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.962 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.015 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.879 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.3755
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Rise As Oil Jumps, Yields Gain, Yen Tumbles
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 08:13 AM
Global stocks markets struggled for direction and US equity futures were flat in Monday’s quiet session following a rally Friday that pushed the Nasdaq 100 nearly 2% higher amid optimism that a soft landing for the world’s biggest economy is within reach. Sentiment was shaken by early weakness in Treasuries – which briefly pushed the 10Y yield to 4.0% after the BOJ was forced to intervene unexpectedly in the bond market one day after “tweaking” its YCC – continued strength in the USD (which sent the yen tumbling contrary to what virtually all so-called experts predicted), and a rally in commodities, and especially oil (and gasoline) which has soared in recent days.
As of 7:30am, US equity futures were 0.1% higher at 4,612 while Nasdaq futures were largely unchanged. Treasury yields edged higher, mirroring moves in UK and European bond markets. Gold drifted lower, while Brent climbed over $85 and to a level where markets will soon realize that headline inflation is about to storm right back; Bitcoin rose 0.3%. Apple and Amazon.com are among companies reporting earnings in the coming days.
The yen tumbled against the dollar, crushing the BOJ’s carefully laid plans to strengthen the currency, after the Bank of Japan announced unscheduled bond-purchase operations to buy debt. The BOJ was seeking to contain a selloff after it said Friday it will allow yields to rise above a 0.5% cap and JGBs promptly did just that.
In premarket trading, Johnson & Johnson shares fall 1.5%, after a judge dismissed the pharmaceutical company’s second attempt at using a unit’s bankruptcy case to press tens of thousands of cancer victims to drop their lawsuits and accept an $8.9 billion settlement. Wells Fargo said the decision should not be a surprise, while Cantor Fitzgerald sees potential liabilities being manageable. Ford Motor dropped after the stock was cut to hold at Jefferies “with a heavy heart,” following results which saw worse-than-expected losses on electric vehicles and a “strategic wobble.” MetLife Inc. gained after Bloomberg News reported that Singapore insurer Great Eastern Holdings Ltd. is in talks to buy the company’s Malaysian venture. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Although Adobe may be “late to the party,” there is now more clarity on AI-enabled products and a roadmap toward monetization, Morgan Stanley says in note as it upgrades the stock to overweight from equal-weight. The shares rise 2.2% in premarket trading.
Apellis Pharma rises 14% after the company said a review into its eye drug Syfovre showed that neither the product nor manufacturing issues caused the rare cases of patients experiencing severe inflammation following treatment.
Barnes & Noble Education rose as much as 23% after the campus-store chain said it entered into an agreement with its stakeholders and strategic partners on refinancing terms.
Carvana falls as much as 1.7% in premarket trading after Jefferies becomes the fourth brokerage to turn bearish on the stock this month. The analyst cut the recommendation on the online used-car dealer’s stock to underperform from hold, saying near-term profitability is inflated by transitory tailwinds.
General Electric fluctuates after Oppenheimer downgrades the stock to market perform from outperform, saying the share’s recent gains “align to fundamentals.”
MetLife rises as much as 4% after Bloomberg News reports that Singapore insurer Great Eastern Holdings is in talks to buy the company’s Malaysian venture.
Palantir Technologies shares rise as much as 5.7%, set to extend Friday’s 10% gain on growing optimism over the software firm’s exposure to AI.
Sweetgreen shares gain 7.2% after the fast-casual restaurant chain was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler. While it has been “tough sledding” for the company since going public, analysts Brian Mullan and Aisling Grueninger feel the “tide may be turning here a bit.”
Wayfair shares jump 5.3%, after the home-goods retailer was upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which said the company is “on the cusp of driving sustained Ebitda profitability.”
In the world of confused central bankers, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Le Figaro newspaper the ECB could hike again, even if it pauses at its next meeting. In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari described the inflation outlook as “quite positive,” despite the likelihood of job losses and slower growth. Yields on German bonds and US Treasuries climbed.
“The narrative that markets will be focused on is if it’s going to be a soft landing or not,” said Vivek Paul, senior portfolio strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute. “We’ll learn more about that once the upcoming data indicate if rapidly cooling inflation is indeed the start of a broader trend or it continues to be volatile.”
According to Mike Wilson, who in his latest weekly note once again refused to turn bearish thus assuring more stock market gains, was kind enough to explain again what is causing the rally he never saw coming: he suggests that US equities are tracking the same path they did in 2019, which was one of the best years for the S&P 500 over the past decade. The benchmark is set to close out a fifth month of gains, the longest such winning streak since August 2021.
“The data we have today suggests to us that we are in a policy-driven, late-cycle rally,” Wilson, a staunch equities bear, wrote in a note. The latest example of such a period occurred in 2019 when the Federal Reserve paused and then cut rates and its balance sheet expanded toward the end of the year. “These developments fostered a robust rally in equities that was driven almost exclusively by multiple and not earnings, as has been the case this year.”
Meanwhile, investors aren’t rushing to buy shares of companies that beat second-quarter profit estimates. These firms are still underperforming the S&P 500 Index by the most in 18 years on the day after results, according to Goldman chief equity strategist David Kostin. “Investors have not rewarded stocks posting positive surprises,” Kostin wrote in a note.
European stocks edged higher although the food & beverage sector has struggled after Heineken slumped as much as 6.4% after the Dutch brewer reduced its earnings forecast, with consumption waning as consumers react to price increases. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%. Here are the most notable European movers:
Erste Group shares gain as much as 2.5% after the Austrian lender reported what KBW says were a decent set of results and upgraded its guidance for a key profitability metric above consensus estimates
Galp shares rise as much as 3.5% to the highest intraday level since February after adjusted net income and Ebitda at the Portuguese energy company beat analyst estimates
Dr. Martens shares rise as much as 6.5% after Sky News reported that activist investment firm Sparta Capital has acquired a stake worth tens of millions of pounds in the UK bootmaker
Heineken shares slide as much as 6.4%, their steepest drop since October, after the Dutch brewer lowered its earnings guidance, having missed sales expectations in key markets such as Vietnam
Amadeus IT falls as much as 4.7%, extending its drop following Friday’s earnings, as Oddo downgrades the Spanish travel-booking services company to neutral
Nemetschek drops as much as 4.6% after 2Q results, with analysts highlighting the software firm’s weaker margins and noting that growth slowed at the segment that offers architecture planning and design tools
Hensoldt falls as much as 5.2%, extending Friday’s losses after it reported results that showed weakness in its Optronics division, even as overall order intake bounced back
Bollore declines as much as 3% after the French conglomerate reported 1H results that Oddo (neutral) says came in slightly lower than expected
Sage Group shares drop as much as 1.2% after the software company is downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity, which says the stock needs “a breather after a banner year”
Earlier in the session, Asia’s benchmark equity gauge was headed for its highest close since April 2022 as heavyweight markets China and Japan rallied on domestic drivers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.1%, climbing for a sixth straight day in its longest streak of gains in three months. Chinese stocks led the region higher on increasing signs that Beijing is determined to shore up economic growth and boost the stock market. The country’s property gauge is set to enter a bull market as the latest China Mfg PMI print beat expectations, rising to 49.3 vs. 49.2 survey; and up from 49.0 previously. The rally in China also boosted MSCI’s key emerging markets index, with the measure on track for its highest close in 2023 on Monday.
“The last two years have reminded us of the unpredictability of market events and the power of mean reversion,” said Bryan Cheung, associate director for manager research at Morningstar. “Investors should rebalance their portfolios from areas that have gotten more expensive, like the tech sector, into more attractively valued areas such as value-tilted sectors and non-US markets like Asia and emerging markets.” Elsewhere, Japanese gauges climbed more than 1% as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan announced unscheduled bond-purchase operations and following a tweak to its yield-curve control policy Friday.
Asian stocks are poised to have their best month since January, amid improving prospects for the Chinese market, growing expectations of a soft landing in the US and the continued demand for artificial intelligence-linked shares. Still, the MSCI index’s gains are only about half that of the S&P 500. “Since last quarter, we have been recommending a balanced portfolio approach across Asia on one side chasing momentum in the region while also safeguarding against potential recession through high-yielding stocks,” Sanford C. Bernstein strategists including Rupal Agarwal wrote in a note. “We still find ample macro, valuation, earnings support” for these high-yielding names, they added.
Japan remains a focus for traders. On Friday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would allow 10-year bond yields to rise above a ceiling it now calls a point of reference. The half-assed move, as is now widely understood, was meant not to signal normalization – as the BOJ is terrified what that would do to the bond market – but to boost the yen. Unfortunately, the latest YCC tweak has crashed and burned immediately as the yen plunged after the Bank of Japan announced unscheduled bond-purchase operations to buy debt. The BOJ was seeking to contain a selloff after it said Friday it will allow yields to rise above a 0.5% cap.
“We had the BOJ today making sure yields remained capped,” said Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank. “They clearly don’t want yields rising too much, so today’s action drove home the point it was perhaps more of a technical adjustment than a change in policy.”
Australia’s ASX 200 lagged with strength in the commodity-related sectors offset by weakness in consumer stocks and financials, with the mood cautious ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision where there is a discrepancy between money markets pricing and analysts’ median expectations on whether the central bank will hike or pause.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are the best performers among the G-10’s. The yen plunged after the Bank of Japan announced unscheduled bond purchases, an indication that the dovish central bank isn’t yet ready to let yields soar. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.95% to 142.50, swinging from an intraday low of 140.70. BOJ said it would buy 300 billion yen ($2.1 billion) of five-to-10 year notes at market- level yields. On Friday, it said a previous yield ceiling of 0.5% for 10-year bonds is now a reference point rather than a limit, raising expectations it would let rates rise.
In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve following rangebound Asia and early London sessions, while front-end outperforms slightly, steepening 2s10s spread by almost 2bp on the day. Downside pressure emerged during Asia session as Japanese bonds slid for a second day, prompting policy makers to step in to buy the notes. Japanese 10-year yields top 0.6% in Asia after the BOJ conducted an unscheduled bond-buying operation while the yen falls 0.9% versus the greenback. Bund futures are also lower although there was little reaction shown to euro-area CPI data. German 10-year yields are up 2bps. Treasuries also fall: US 10-year yields were around 3.96%, erasing an earlier spike to 4.0%, and cheaper by around 2bps vs Friday close with bunds and gilts trading broadly in line in the sector. Fed-dated OIS steady on the day with around 11bp of rate hike premium priced over the next two policy meetings, unchanged from Friday close. Monday’s few scheduled events include Fed’s Senior Loan Officer opinion survey release at 2pm New York time.
In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 1%. Spot gold falls 0.3%.
Today’s macro data focus is SLOOS (which tends to precede moves in actual lending by ~2 quarters) and Chicago PMI.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 4,614
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 470.90
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
Euro little changed at $1.1014
Brent Futures little changed at $84.93/bbl
MXAP up 0.2% to 170.37
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 540.44
Nikkei up 1.3% to 33,172.22
Topix up 1.4% to 2,322.56
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 20,078.94
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,291.04
Sensex up 0.4% to 66,425.08
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,410.42
Kospi up 0.9% to 2,632.58
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,954.19
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.21% to 101.83
Top Overnight News
China signaled fresh efforts to boost consumption though stopped short of direct fiscal support, while major cities pledged to aid the property market. China’s NBS PMIs were mixed for July, with decent Manufacturing (49.3, up from 49 in June and ahead of the Street’s 48.9 forecast) but poor Non-manufacturing (51.5, down from 53.2 in June and below the Street’s 53 forecast). BBG / RTRS
The Biden administration is hunting for malicious computer code it believes China has hidden deep inside the networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases in the United States and around the world, according to American military, intelligence and national security officials. NYT
The US will provide Taiwan with $345mn in weapons, marking the first time the Pentagon will send arms directly to the country to boost its defenses amid rising concern about assertive Chinese military activity. FT
Lagarde said the ECB has made “great progress” in its fight against inflation and she called Q2 GDP numbers from Germany and Spain “quite encouraging”. RTRS
Europe’s July CPI was inline at +5.3% on the headline, but core came in a bit hotter at +5.5%, flat vs. June and above the Street’s +5.4% forecast. The core CPI in Europe really hasn’t descended that far from the peak of +5.7% in March. RTRS
Zelensky warns that “war is coming to Russia” after Moscow hit with drone attacks (“gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia, to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process”). London Telegraph
Kashkari said the inflation outlook is “quite positive” and it “now appears the US will avoid a recession”, but he’s not sure the Fed is done hiking rates. RTRS
AI programs come under further scrutiny from content creators – websites, authors, and other content creators are increasingly demanding compensation from generative AI programs feeding off their work. WSJ
Blackstone’s BREIT is selling assets to raise liquidity for redemptions and to build data centers for the boom in AI computing demand. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asian stocks headed into month-end mostly on the front foot as the region sustained last Friday’s tech-led momentum from Wall St and as participants digested the latest support efforts from China and mixed PMI data. ASX 200 lagged with strength in the commodity-related sectors offset by weakness in consumer stocks and financials, with the mood cautious ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision where there is a discrepancy between money markets pricing and analysts’ median expectations on whether the central bank will hike or pause. Nikkei 225 was boosted from the open and rose back above the 33,000 level amid a weaker currency and as markets digested the BoJ’s recent shift to a more flexible approach which provided early tailwinds for financials, while the central bank announced unscheduled bond purchases and participants also shrugged off disappointing Industrial Production data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid stimulus-related optimism as Chinese officials are set to announce more measures for consumption, recovery and expansion, while the NDRC said it will solidly promote development and reform, as well as stick to the general principle of making economic stability a top priority. Furthermore, mixed official PMI data from China failed to dampen the mood in which headline Manufacturing PMI slightly topped forecasts but remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the slowest pace of increase since December 2022.
Top Asian News
China issued measures to recover and expand consumption including expanding consumption in NEVs and reasonably boosting consumption credit, while it will enhance financial support on consumption, according to a State Council document.
Chinese officials from several agencies will hold a press conference on Monday at 08:00BST/03:00EDT to announce more measures for consumption, recovery and expansion, according to Bloomberg.
China’s NDRC said it will solidly promote development and reform, as well as stick to the general principle of making economic stability a top priority and pursuing progress while ensuring stability, according to Xinhua.
Major Chinese cities including Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou vowed to better meet rising housing needs after China’s housing minister called for more efforts to strengthen the property market with measures such as lowering payment requirements and mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers, according to Global Times.
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said at the China-France economic and financial dialogue that the Chinese side appreciates the French side’s decision to extend 5G licences in some cities to Huawei and the two sides will sign a cooperation agreement on grape cultivation and wine production. Furthermore, the two sides welcomed the recent trial certification of an Airbus (AIR FP) helicopter and aircraft, according to Reuters.
French Economic Minister Le Maire said China must remain a key partner for all European countries specifically France in tackling climate change and said they need China as a key partner for global growth, while he added that they are totally opposed to the idea of decoupling and want to get better access to Chinese markets, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Le Maire said the European car industry can withstand cheap Chinese EVs, according to FT.
Italy’s Defence Minister Crosetto said Italy made an improvised and atrocious decision when it joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative under a previous government in 2019, according to Reuters.
Alibaba (9988 HK) affiliate Ant Group’s listing is unlikely to occur in the short term, according to a Chinese state media report.
Japan’s Labour Ministry is reportedly proposing a record increase in the minimum hourly wage to lift it above JPY 1,000 to help low-income households tackle inflation, according to Bloomberg.
Japan LDP Senior Official Seko says BoJ policy tweak sends a message to exit from easing finally, according to Jiji; BoJ decision could throw cold water on the Japanese economy and needs high attention.
China’s NDRC Deputy Director says we should give full play to the decisive role in the market of resource allocation. Will improve long-term mechanisms for expanding household consumption.
China Commerce Ministry issues export controls on drone-related equipment; effective September 1st.
European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark on month-end, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. Action which follows a mostly firmer APAC handover given Friday’s Wall St momentum and the latest Chinese stimulus, with mixed Chinese PMIs failing to offset the tone. Within Europe, sectors feature underperformance in Construction/Materials, perhaps after the latest HS2 update while Food, Beverage & Tobacco also lags after Heineken’s -6.0% Q2 update featuring downbeat sector commentary. Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged with specifics limited and the earning docket sparse in the pre-market ahead of a relatively busy PM agenda.
Top European News
UK’s financial regulator is under increasing pressure to overhaul rules governing the bank accounts for politicians amid the Farage ‘debanking’ fallout, according to FT.
ECB’s Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is to assess the situation on a meeting-by-meeting basis and a pause would not mean that there would not be any rate hikes after, while she also stated that Q2 GDP figures for France, Germany and Spain are encouraging, according to an interview in Le Figaro.
Bundesbank’s deputy head Claudia Buch said the ECB needs a more critical mindset on banks and warned the sector still faces significant risks from major macroeconomic upheaval, according to FT.
FX
The Dollar Index is kicking off the last trading day of July on the front foot and going against some month-end models, albeit likely on the back of BoJ-induced JPY weakness overnight.
JPY resides as the marked laggard following the BoJ’s back-door YCC tweak last week, which was undermined by an unscheduled JGB operation as the 10yr JGB yield topped 60bps.
Antipodeans are the standout outperformers amid Chinese stimulus optimism, with a string of recent reports suggesting China is focusing on its ailing domestic consumption, whilst China’s Manufacturing PMI marginally topping expectations could be providing some tailwinds.
EUR saw little reaction on the EZ Flash CPIs, which headline print in-line whilst core and super-core marginally topping forecast, with another inflation report due before the ECB’s next meeting.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1305 vs exp. 7.1524 (prev. 7.1338)
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks are under pressure this morning with JGBs continuing their post-BoJ selling in APAC trade, which prompted Japan to step in with an unscheduled purchase; action which seemingly settled the complex.
EGBs are pressured with Bunds at the lower-end of 132.45-132.82 parameters while Gilts reside at the 95.47 trough which is 36 ticks above Friday’s base.
Bunds saw limited two-way action on the EZ Flash data points, ultimately settling around pre-release figures with market pricing little changed.
Periphery in-fitting but, as is often the case, slightly more contained with BTPs and Bonos digesting their own incremental updates.
USTs following suit to the above though a packed agenda ahead including Fed’s 2023 voter Goolsbee, the SLOOS and Treasury estimates ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures have been trending higher since after the Chinese equities open overnight, with participants attributing the initial softness in prices to mixed Chinese PMIs, whilst the recovery has been partially pinned on continued Chinese efforts to boost its domestic consumption.
Spot gold is modestly softer amid the Dollar’s strength and ahead of this week’s key risk events including the BoE, US ISM PMIs, and the US Jobs Report. Spot gold sees its 100 DMA at USD 1,967.72 today and the DMA seen at 1,946.02/oz.
Base metals are mixed in tandem with the broader mood across the market. 3M LME copper has waned from best levels around USD 8,739/t to levels just under USD 8,700/t with the red metal underpinned by Chinese stimulus hopes. It’s also worth noting Chinese export controls on key chipmaking material will come into effect on Tuesday 1st August
Iran’s Oil Minister Owji said Tehran will pursue its rights in the Durra Field if other parties shun cooperation, according to Shana.
Russian President Putin said he agreed to have talks with Turkish President Erdogan on Wednesday and that a Turkish gas hub is still on the agenda, while he noted that they want to set up an electronic platform for gas sales in Turkey and don’t want to store gas there, according to Reuters.
Oman Crude OSP was calculated at USD 80.54/bbl for September (prev. USD 74.78/bbl August), according to DME data.
UK PM Sunak will today commit to going ahead with oil and gas exploration and production in the North Sea, according to the Times. Subsequently confirmed
Geopolitics
Russian President Putin said that they do not reject talks on Ukraine but noted a ceasefire is hard to implement when the Ukrainian army is on the offensive, while he added there should be agreement on both sides and that there are no significant changes on the Ukrainian front for now. Furthermore, Putin also commented that no one wants a direct clash between NATO and Russian forces in Syria and that the Russian Navy is to get 30 new ships this year, according to Reuters.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Russia has received around 30 peace initiatives on Ukraine, according to TASS.
Two skyscrapers in Moscow’s premier business district were damaged by drone strikes, while Moscow’s Mayor said Ukrainian drones caused damage although there were no casualties, according to FT.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia following the drone attack on the Russian capital Moscow on Sunday, according to the BBC.
Ukrainian Chief of Staff said Ukraine will start negotiations on security guarantees with the US next week.
Polish PM Morawiecki said a group of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus have moved closer to the Polish border and may stage a ‘hybrid attack’ inside Poland, while he added that Wagner fighters may pose as migrants to enter the EU and that the situation is getting increasingly dangerous, according to Politico.
Russia’s embassy in Moldova announced it will temporarily stop providing appointments for consular matters in what Moldovan officials said is a situation linked to the order by the country’s officials to cut staff, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia will host a Ukrainian-organized peace summit in early August in an effort to find a way to start negotiations over the war in Ukraine, according to an official cited by Politico. Furthermore, it was reported that Ukraine, Brazil, India and South Africa are expected to attend but Russia is not.
US Secretary of State Blinken said China has repeatedly assured the US that it is not providing material, lethal assistance in Ukraine.
US President Biden’s administration believes China implanted malware in key US power and communications networks in a ‘ticking time bomb’ that could disrupt the military in the event of a conflict or if China were to move against Taiwan, according to NYT.
US is to provide Taiwan with military aid of up to USD 345mln, according to the White House.
Senior Israeli lawmaker said it is too early to speak of a Saudi normalisation deal being in the works, according to Reuters.
Crypto
SEC reportedly asked Coinbase (COIN) to halt trading in everything aside from Bitcoin prior to suing the exchange, according to the CEO cited by FT.
US Event Calendar
09:45: July MNI Chicago PMI, est. 43.3, prior 41.5
10:30: July Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -22.5, prior -23.2
14:00: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
Central Banks
09:20: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Yahoo! Finance Live
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Given that the outcome of the September FOMC (19th-20th) will likely depend on the two CPIs and two payroll reports prior to the meeting, all roads this week lead to US payrolls on Friday. Ahead of that tomorrow JOLTs data will give clues as to the current tightness of the labour market underneath the headline numbers. For those of us who still believe old fashioned metrics of the cycle matter, then the quarterly Fed SLOOS later today could actually be the most informative for where the economy might be in 6-12 months. We also have the manufacturing (tomorrow) and services (Thursday) ISMs as a timely indicator of the momentum in the US economy.
Today’s Eurozone CPI and GDP prints will also be closely watched after the German and French prints on Friday. With the ECB now as data dependent as the Fed, these releases take on added significance ahead of their September 14th meeting.
Stand by also for a marginal 25bps vs 50bps BoE meeting on Thursday (DB at 25bps) and another close call for the RBA tomorrow where a 25bps hike is expected against no change. Another packed week for corporate earnings will feature names including Apple, Amazon (both Thursday), AMD (tomorrow) and Qualcomm (Wednesday). Otherwise, 169 S&P 500 and 87 Stoxx 600 companies will be reporting this week.
Going through some of the key releases now and starting with payrolls. While our economists expect some payback from state and local government education hiring for the headline print (+175k forecast, consensus at +200k vs. +209k previously), they expect a slight pick up in private (+175k vs. +149k) payrolls inline with consensus. This would be below the three-month averages for headline (+244k) and private (+196k) payrolls gains. Watch out for average hourly earnings and hours worked as well. Also keep an eye out for the unpredictable and less reliable ADP (Wednesday). Last month’s +497k blew away all forecasts, and led to a yield sell-off, but this week our economists are expecting a more normal +175k.
Unit labour costs and productivity numbers on Thursday will also be in focus following the GDP and ECI data last week. Our team forecasts preliminary Q2 growth in productivity to come in at +1.1% following a -2.1% print previously. Unit labour costs are seen moderating from +4.2% to +2.6%.
Our UK economist Sanjay Raja previews the BoE meeting on Thursday here. He expects a +25bps hike taking the Bank Rate to 5.25%, although it is a close call between that and +50bps. Beyond next week’s decision, Sanjay sees two more +25bps hikes, with rate cuts potentially starting from Q2-24. The central bank’s Decision Maker Panel survey will be out that day as well.
In Europe, the main events will be today with the July flash CPI and Q2 GDP prints for the euro area. Country prints out on Friday have already given a good sense of the direction of travel. July inflation came in at +6.5% in Germany, (+6.6% exp), +5.1% in France (+5.0% exp) and +2.1% in Spain (+1.6% exp). Our European economists now see euro area headline inflation tracking at a low +5.4% (consensus +5.3%), and at +5.5% for core (consensus +5.4%). This would be the lowest headline inflation since January 2022, but with core inflation only a couple of tenths below its peak this March. Meanwhile, our economists now expect a +0.3% qoq Q2 GDP print (with risks tilted to +0.4%), though the upside versus consensus (+0.2%) is mostly due a distorted +3.3% print in Ireland last Friday. Elsewhere, growth disappointed in Germany, stagnating in Q2 (0.0% qoq vs +0.1% exp) after the technical recession seen during the winter. But it was stronger in France (+0.5% vs +0.1% exp) and Spain (+0.4% qoq, in line with exp).
After the official China PMI earlier today (more below), we see the Caixin indicators for manufacturing (tomorrow) and services (Thursday) to further enhance our understanding of the current state of the Chinese economy as we wait for fresh stimulus announcements. Our Chief China economist recaps last Monday’s Politburo meeting and highlights its market implications here.
In earnings, with around half of the S&P 500 companies having already reported results, all eyes will be on Apple and Amazon, releasing earnings Thursday. Elsewhere in tech, AMD and Qualcomm will be closely watched when it comes to chips. Uber, Shopify and PayPal also report. See Binky Chadha’s review of the strong reporting season so far here.
Asian equity markets are rallying this morning following Friday’s gains on Wall Street. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (+1.54%) is leading gains with the Hang Seng (+1.37%), the KOSPI (+0.80%), the CSI (+0.78%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.49%) also higher. S&P 500 (-0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.22%) futures are slightly lower. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+3.79 bps) have edged higher trading at 3.99% as we go to print.
Data from China showed that the official manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month as the manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3 in July (v/s 48.9 expected) and compared to a reading of 49.0 in June. Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.5 in July (v/s 53.0 expected) from a level of 53.2 in June, marking its lowest reading this year thus highlighting that the world’s second biggest economy is struggling to revive growth momentum amid soft global demand. There is encouraging stimulus talk though, hence the equity rally this morning. Elsewhere in Japan monthly activity data was a bit mixed. Retail sales contracted -0.4% m/m in June (v/s -0.7% expected), against the prior month’s upwardly revised +1.4% increase. Meanwhile, industrial output rebounded +2.0% m/m in June (v/s +2.4% expected, -2.2% in May).
The BOJ earlier announced an unscheduled Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchase operation as yields on the 10yr JGBs rose to a fresh nine-year high of 0.607% before moving back to 0.587% after the BOJ’s surprise decision. They bought 300 billion yen ($2.1 billion) of 5-to-10 year notes at market yields. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has given back most of its post BOJ gains after Friday’s YCC tweak and is currently trading at 141.81 versus the dollar.
Looking back on last week now, after the short, sharp risk-off as a result of the BoJ YCC surprise, a positive mood returned to markets on Friday as several US economic data releases added to optimism that the world’s largest economy could achieve a soft landing yet. The first release was the US June core PCE price index, which rose 4.1% year-on-year, below the anticipated 4.2%. In month-on-month terms, this was at 0.2% (as expected), down from 0.3% in the previous month, adding support to the narrative of softening inflation that had picked up pace following the US CPI data release earlier in the month. Building on this, the US employment cost index for Q2 increased 1.0% (vs 1.1% expected), another piece of evidence for the decelerating inflation story. On the back of the data, market pricing for the chances of another Fed hike by November (around terminal timing) eased to 37% (from 40% on Thursday), but this was still up from 33% a week earlier.
Against the backdrop of a potential soft landing, US 10yr Treasuries rallied on Friday, as yields fell -4.9bps, but were still up +11.4bps in weekly terms. 2yr yields followed suite, falling -5.3bps on Friday, but this time reversing much of their rise earlier in the week (+3.5bps week-on-week).
Over in Europe, 10yr bund yields gained +2.6bps week-on-week (and +2.0bps on Friday). However, 2yr bunds rallied by -4.2bps on Friday as ECB rate expectations moved lower with ECB commentary consistent with a slightly dovish take on the ECB meeting the previous day. A 44% chance of a 25bp hike is now priced in for September, the first time this has been below 50% since mid-June.
The US fixed income rally on Friday was a partial reversal of the sell off late on Thursday that came after a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan may make changes to its YCC policy, a move confirmed by the BoJ on Friday as it effectively moved the upper end the YCC band to +1%. The change was seen as an initial step towards policy normalisation in Japan, though BoJ’s Ueda said he did not expect long-term yields to rise to 1%. Against this backdrop, the Nikkei fell -0.40% on Friday, but this failed to erase the week’s gains of +1.41%, its largest weekly up move since mid-June. Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds jumped to their highest level since 2014, climbing +11.8bps on the week to 0.57%. However, the FX market response saw the yen reversing its earlier gains after a volatile day, closing the day lower at 141.16, virtually in line with its pre-Nikkei story level, having traded just above 138 early on Friday.
Equities rallied on Friday off the back of the positive US economic data. The S&P 500 gained +1.01% week-on-week, and +0.99% on Friday as 9 out of the 11 major constituent sectors rallied, securing its third consecutive week of gains. The NASDAQ relatively outperformed, gaining +1.90% week-on-week (and +2.02% on Friday), with outperformance by the tech megacaps. The STOXX 600 likewise gained +1.16% on the week in its third consecutive week of gains, although the rally stumbled on Friday with the index closing down -0.20%.
Finally, turning to commodities, oil recorded another weekly gain. Brent crude rose +0.89% on Friday, with a weekly increase of +4.84% to $84.99/bbl, buoyed by the improving growth outlook for the US and China’s recent pledge to boost stimulus. This marks its fifth weekly rise in a row, with Brent up +17.6% since 27 June. WTI crude was similarly up +4.55% on the week, to $80.58/bbl (and +0.61% on the week).
end
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
Antipodeans bid, JPY lags & equities steady with Fed’s Goolsbee due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 05:47 AM
European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark, with US futures following suit
Action which follows mostly firmer APAC trade given Wall St. momentum, Chinese stimulus and despite mixed PMIs
DXY is on the front-foot despite some month-end model predictions; JPY standout laggard while Antipodeans outperform
Fixed income remains pressured though JGBs have steadied after unscheduled 5-10yr purchases, EGBs unreactive to Flash data
Crude benchmarks continue to benefit from the risk tone/Chinese stimulus, while metals are more mixed given the USDs influence
Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI; Fed’s Goolsbee, SLOOS & Treasury Estimates.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark on month-end, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%.
Action which follows a mostly firmer APAC handover given Friday’s Wall St momentum and the latest Chinese stimulus, with mixed Chinese PMIs failing to offset the tone.
Within Europe, sectors feature underperformance in Construction/Materials, perhaps after the latest HS2 update while Food, Beverage & Tobacco also lags after Heineken’s -6.0% Q2 update featuring downbeat sector commentary.
Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged with specifics limited and the earning docket sparse in the pre-market ahead of a relatively busy PM agenda.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
The Dollar Index is kicking off the last trading day of July on the front foot and going against some month-end models, albeit likely on the back of BoJ-induced JPY weakness overnight.
JPY resides as the marked laggard following the BoJ’s back-door YCC tweak last week, which was undermined by an unscheduled JGB operation as the 10yr JGB yield topped 60bps.
Antipodeans are the standout outperformers amid Chinese stimulus optimism, with a string of recent reports suggesting China is focusing on its ailing domestic consumption, whilst China’s Manufacturing PMI marginally topping expectations could be providing some tailwinds.
EUR saw little reaction on the EZ Flash CPIs, which headline print in-line whilst core and super-core marginally topping forecast, with another inflation report due before the ECB’s next meeting.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1305 vs exp. 7.1524 (prev. 7.1338)
Core benchmarks are under pressure this morning with JGBs continuing their post-BoJ selling in APAC trade, which prompted Japan to step in with an unscheduled purchase; action which seemingly settled the complex.
EGBs are pressured with Bunds at the lower-end of 132.45-132.82 parameters while Gilts reside at the 95.47 trough which is 36 ticks above Friday’s base.
Bunds saw limited two-way action on the EZ Flash data points, ultimately settling around pre-release figures with market pricing little changed.
Periphery in-fitting but, as is often the case, slightly more contained with BTPs and Bonos digesting their own incremental updates.
USTs following suit to the above though a packed agenda ahead including Fed’s 2023 voter Goolsbee, the SLOOS and Treasury estimates ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding.
–WTI and Brent futures have been trending higher since after the Chinese equities open overnight, with participants attributing the initial softness in prices to mixed Chinese PMIs, whilst the recovery has been partially pinned on continued Chinese efforts to boost its domestic consumption.
Spot gold is modestly softer amid the Dollar’s strength and ahead of this week’s key risk events including the BoE, US ISM PMIs, and the US Jobs Report. Spot gold sees its 100 DMA at USD 1,967.72 today and the DMA seen at 1,946.02/oz.
Base metals are mixed in tandem with the broader mood across the market. 3M LME copper has waned from best levels around USD 8,739/t to levels just under USD 8,700/t with the red metal underpinned by Chinese stimulus hopes. It’s also worth noting Chinese export controls on key chipmaking material will come into effect on Tuesday 1st August
Iran’s Oil Minister Owji said Tehran will pursue its rights in the Durra Field if other parties shun cooperation, according to Shana.
Russian President Putin said he agreed to have talks with Turkish President Erdogan on Wednesday and that a Turkish gas hub is still on the agenda, while he noted that they want to set up an electronic platform for gas sales in Turkey and don’t want to store gas there, according to Reuters.
Oman Crude OSP was calculated at USD 80.54/bbl for September (prev. USD 74.78/bbl August), according to DME data.
UK PM Sunak will today commit to going ahead with oil and gas exploration and production in the North Sea, according to the Times. Subsequently confirmed
Fed’s Kashkari (voter) said he is not sure when the Fed will be done raising rates and they are making good progress, while he added will let the data guide the Fed and they may or may not hike in September. Kashkari also noted that it currently appears the US will avoid a recession which he hopes will remain true and the overall inflation outlook is quite positive but cannot prejudge it and it would not surprise him to see unemployment tick up slightly, according to a CBS interview
Trucking giant Yellow shut down operations which put 30,000 jobs at risk including around 22,000 Teamsters members, according to WSJ.
Tesla (TSLA) to cut prices in Hong Kong for some Model 3 and Model Y units from August 4, according to Hong Kong Economic Times.
UK’s financial regulator is under increasing pressure to overhaul rules governing the bank accounts for politicians amid the Farage ‘debanking’ fallout, according to FT.
ECB’s Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is to assess the situation on a meeting-by-meeting basis and a pause would not mean that there would not be any rate hikes after, while she also stated that Q2 GDP figures for France, Germany and Spain are encouraging, according to an interview in Le Figaro.
Bundesbank’s deputy head Claudia Buch said the ECB needs a more critical mindset on banks and warned the sector still faces significant risks from major macroeconomic upheaval, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
EU HICP Flash YY (Jul 2023) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.5%); Ex-F&E Flash YY (Jul 2023) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.8%); Ex-F,E,A&T Flash YY (Jul) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.5%)
EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q2 2023) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%); YY (Q2 2023) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.0%)
German Retail Sales MM Real (Jul 2023) -0.8% (Prev. 0.4%); YY Real (Jun 2023) -1.6% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. -3.6%)
German Import Prices MM (Jun 2023) -1.6% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -1.4%); YY (Jun 2023) -11.4% vs. Exp. -10.7% (Prev. -9.1%)
UK Mortgage Lending (Jun 2023) 0.136B GB vs. Exp. 0.054B GB (Prev. -0.092B GB); Approvals (Jun 2023) 54.662k vs. Exp. 49.718k (Prev. 50.524k)
GEOPOLITICS
Russian President Putin said that they do not reject talks on Ukraine but noted a ceasefire is hard to implement when the Ukrainian army is on the offensive, while he added there should be agreement on both sides and that there are no significant changes on the Ukrainian front for now. Furthermore, Putin also commented that no one wants a direct clash between NATO and Russian forces in Syria and that the Russian Navy is to get 30 new ships this year, according to Reuters.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Russia has received around 30 peace initiatives on Ukraine, according to TASS.
Two skyscrapers in Moscow’s premier business district were damaged by drone strikes, while Moscow’s Mayor said Ukrainian drones caused damage although there were no casualties, according to FT.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia following the drone attack on the Russian capital Moscow on Sunday, according to the BBC.
Ukrainian Chief of Staff said Ukraine will start negotiations on security guarantees with the US next week.
Polish PM Morawiecki said a group of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus have moved closer to the Polish border and may stage a ‘hybrid attack’ inside Poland, while he added that Wagner fighters may pose as migrants to enter the EU and that the situation is getting increasingly dangerous, according to Politico.
Russia’s embassy in Moldova announced it will temporarily stop providing appointments for consular matters in what Moldovan officials said is a situation linked to the order by the country’s officials to cut staff, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia will host a Ukrainian-organized peace summit in early August in an effort to find a way to start negotiations over the war in Ukraine, according to an official cited by Politico. Furthermore, it was reported that Ukraine, Brazil, India and South Africa are expected to attend but Russia is not.
US Secretary of State Blinken said China has repeatedly assured the US that it is not providing material, lethal assistance in Ukraine.
US President Biden’s administration believes China implanted malware in key US power and communications networks in a ‘ticking time bomb’ that could disrupt the military in the event of a conflict or if China were to move against Taiwan, according to NYT.
US is to provide Taiwan with military aid of up to USD 345mln, according to the White House.
Senior Israeli lawmaker said it is too early to speak of a Saudi normalisation deal being in the works, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
SEC reportedly asked Coinbase (COIN) to halt trading in everything aside from Bitcoin prior to suing the exchange, according to the CEO cited by FT.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks headed into month-end mostly on the front foot as the region sustained last Friday’s tech-led momentum from Wall St and as participants digested the latest support efforts from China and mixed PMI data.
ASX 200 lagged with strength in the commodity-related sectors offset by weakness in consumer stocks and financials, with the mood cautious ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision where there is a discrepancy between money markets pricing and analysts’ median expectations on whether the central bank will hike or pause.
Nikkei 225 was boosted from the open and rose back above the 33,000 level amid a weaker currency and as markets digested the BoJ’s recent shift to a more flexible approach which provided early tailwinds for financials, while the central bank announced unscheduled bond purchases and participants also shrugged off disappointing Industrial Production data.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid stimulus-related optimism as Chinese officials are set to announce more measures for consumption, recovery and expansion, while the NDRC said it will solidly promote development and reform, as well as stick to the general principle of making economic stability a top priority. Furthermore, mixed official PMI data from China failed to dampen the mood in which headline Manufacturing PMI slightly topped forecasts but remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the slowest pace of increase since December 2022.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China issued measures to recover and expand consumption including expanding consumption in NEVs and reasonably boosting consumption credit, while it will enhance financial support on consumption, according to a State Council document.
Chinese officials from several agencies will hold a press conference on Monday at 08:00BST/03:00EDT to announce more measures for consumption, recovery and expansion, according to Bloomberg.
China’s NDRC said it will solidly promote development and reform, as well as stick to the general principle of making economic stability a top priority and pursuing progress while ensuring stability, according to Xinhua.
Major Chinese cities including Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou vowed to better meet rising housing needs after China’s housing minister called for more efforts to strengthen the property market with measures such as lowering payment requirements and mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers, according to Global Times.
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said at the China-France economic and financial dialogue that the Chinese side appreciates the French side’s decision to extend 5G licences in some cities to Huawei and the two sides will sign a cooperation agreement on grape cultivation and wine production. Furthermore, the two sides welcomed the recent trial certification of an Airbus (AIR FP) helicopter and aircraft, according to Reuters.
French Economic Minister Le Maire said China must remain a key partner for all European countries specifically France in tackling climate change and said they need China as a key partner for global growth, while he added that they are totally opposed to the idea of decoupling and want to get better access to Chinese markets, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Le Maire said the European car industry can withstand cheap Chinese EVs, according to FT.
Italy’s Defence Minister Crosetto said Italy made an improvised and atrocious decision when it joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative under a previous government in 2019, according to Reuters.
Alibaba (9988 HK) affiliate Ant Group’s listing is unlikely to occur in the short term, according to a Chinese state media report.
Japan’s Labour Ministry is reportedly proposing a record increase in the minimum hourly wage to lift it above JPY 1,000 to help low-income households tackle inflation, according to Bloomberg.
Japan LDP Senior Official Seko says BoJ policy tweak sends a message to exit from easing finally, according to Jiji; BoJ decision could throw cold water on the Japanese economy and needs high attention.
China’s NDRC Deputy Director says we should give full play to the decisive role in the market of resource allocation. Will improve long-term mechanisms for expanding household consumption.
China Commerce Ministry issues export controls on drone-related equipment; effective September 1st.
DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.3 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.5 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.2)
Chinese Composite PMI (Jul) 51.1 (Prev. 52.3)
Japanese Industrial Production MM (Jun P) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. -2.2%); YY (Jun P) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%)
Japanese Retail Sales MM (Jun) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 1.3%); YY (Jun) 5.9% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.7%)
Australian MI Inflation Gauge MM (Jul) 0.8% (Prev. 0.1%); YY 5.4% (Prev. 5.7%)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Jul) -13.1% (Prev. -18.0%); Activity Outlook (Jul) 0.8% (Prev. 2.7%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.11 PTS OR 0.46% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 162.38 PTS OR 0.92% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 412.97 PTS OR 1.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.08 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1140 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1566 /Oil UP TO 81.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.09 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/HUNGARY
Hungary will not be happy with this: the EU advisory committee details plan to exclude Hungary from EU Presidency
(Remix)
EU Advisory Committee Details Plan To Exclude Hungary From EU Presidency
The committee cited Hungary’s “democratic deficit” as its primary reason for trying to block the presidency…
An independent advisory body to the European Union is drawing up a detailed plan on how to prevent Hungary from assuming the presidency of the European Union scheduled for the second half of 2024, daily Magyar Nemzet reports.
The Netherlands-based Meijers Committee, a body consisting of legal professionals that advises the European Union on assessing legislative proposals, has put together a series of recommendations, based on which the European Parliament could prevent a member state from assuming the rotating presidency.
The group of experts presented three different scenarios at the joint committee meeting of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE), and the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO), in which they outlined the possibilities of taking away or limiting the rotating presidency.
As the presidency program is jointly drawn up by the three countries succeeding each other at the head of the European Council – in this case, the incoming presidencies of Spain, Belgium and Hungary – the Meijers Committee’s first proposal was that the three member states should agree on which country chairs which meetings, especially where rule-of-law issues are discussed. This proposal would effectively limit the Hungarian presidency, as it is undergoing rule-of-law proceedings.
Experts have also suggested changing the order of the rotating presidencies. It is worth noting that this has been done several times before, but never against the will of the country concerned as a political sanction.
The third proposal is for the European Parliament to adopt a resolution setting out the conditions under which a member state may be excluded from holding the presidency.
At a Hungarian press conference on Thursday, held after the weekly cabinet meeting, Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyás said that “there is no realistic chance that the Hungarian EU Presidency will not take place.”
END
EU
Eu growth returns but its core inflation remains still high.
(zerohedge)
Euro-Zone Bounces Back From Economic Stagnation But Core Inflation Remains ‘Sticky’
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 08:49 AM
As expected, euro-zone economic growth returned to growth in Q2 with GDP rising 0.3% QoQ (better than the 0.2% rise expected) after shrinking and stagnating in the prior two periods.
While the euro zone’s GDP number looks encouraging, it was buoyed by a bumper three months from Ireland, which expanded by 3.3%. Additionally, Q2 GDP growth was weaker than consensus expectations in Germany and Italy, in line with expectations in Spain and above expectations in France.
Although stronger than expected, Goldman notes that with today’s print stronger than expected, the Euro area is on track to avoid a technical recession but the GDP prints in Austria, Germany and Italy point to extended weakness in the manufacturing sector.
However, more problematically for The ECB, while headline consumer price inflation slowed to just 5.3% from a year ago in July, as expected; in a sign of lingering dangers, the closely watched Core CPI (that excludes volatile costs like food and energy) overshot estimates by a touch to stay at 5.5%, surpassing the headline gauge for the first time since 2021.
Looking ahead, the region’s outlook is far gloomier, the ECB warned last week after lifting rates for a ninth time since July 2022. Confidence indicators are flashing red, with AXA’s Gilles Moec among analysts warning of a “hard-ish landing.”
President Christine Lagarde reiterated her message over the weekend that in the current uncertain environment another hike or “perhaps a pause” are the options for the next policy decision, in September.
As Bloomberg concludes, the latest inflation and GDP figures for the euro zone leave both options on the table – the economy is not yet tanking, while core inflation remains sticky.
END
EU/HEINEKEN
Beer inflation curbs demand as their stock fell 7%
(zerohedge)
Heineken Shares Drop Most Since Pandemic As ‘Beerflation’ Curbs Demand
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 09:20 AM
The world’s second-largest brewer slashed its 2023 profit growth forecast following a slowdown in Asia, the US, and Europe as consumers balk at ‘beerflation’.
Heineken said operating profit plunged 22% on an adjusted basis in the first half of the year. Overall volumes slid 5.6%, exceeding analysts’ average forecast of 3.4%.
The Amsterdam-based brewer blamed the “cumulative effect” of price hikes and a “challenging economic backdrop” that was responsible for a slowdown in beer demand.
Here’s a snapshot of 1H23 results:
Revenue growth 6.3%
Net revenue (beia) 6.6% organic growth; per hectolitre 12.7%
Net profit growth -8.6%; net profit (beia) organic growth -11.6%
Diluted EPS €2.04; diluted EPS (beia) €2.03
FY 2023 outlook updated. Operating profit (beia) stable to mid-single-digit organic growth.
“The start of the year was all about passing on the inflation on our input costs,” Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink told Bloomberg in an interview.
Van den Brink said, “We front-loaded our pricing. We ran into a pretty strong economic slowdown in the key market of Vietnam, which is disproportionately important to us.”
Heineken shares were down nearly 7% in European trading, their steepest drop since March 2020.
Citi analyst Simon Hales called the earnings results “extremely disappointing.”
Heineken expects cost pressures to ease next year, which will reduce beerflation. Previously the guidance was for mid- to high-single-digit earnings growth.
“The credibility of Heineken’s guidance is now in question,” Hales said.
RBC analysts James Edwardes Jones and Emma Letheren said, “This is the worst set of results we’ve had so far.” They were referring to other consumer companies their desk covers.
Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying about the results (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
AlphaValue (add, PT €121)
Points to a miss on every metric, with a strong decline in volume
All regions under pressure
“With consumption strongly affected, this does not send out a positive signal for the ABI and Carlsberg publications due in the next few days” analyst Davide Amorim writes
KBC (accumulate, PT €110)
Notes key weakness in Vietnam and Nigeria
“We continue to believe beer is a resilient category, with further underlying growth potential, whilst Heineken is demonstrating solid pricing discipline,” according to analyst Wim Hoste
Commodity and energy cost inflation will partially reverse next year
Future performance to be be supported by profit improvement initiatives
RBC (sector perform, PT €93)
“This is the worst set of results we’ve had so far,” analysts James Edwardes Jones and Emma Letheren write
Heineken missed expectations for organic sales growth in most regions, they note
Limited read-across on the sector as the brewer gave priority to price increases
Citi (buy, PT €130)
1H results are extremely disappointing, and the credibility of Heineken’s guidance is now in question,” according to analysts led by Simon Hales
The brewer missed expectations everywhere except Europe
Describe downgrade of Ebit guidance as “concerning”
Expect earnings-per-share consensus to fall and the stock to de-rate
Jefferies (buy, PT €115)
Analysts Edward Mundy and Andrei Andon-Ionita expect consensus for 2024 Ebit to drop toward Jefferies’ estimate of €4.98b, from the current €5.33b
Say shares look inexpensive on Jefferies’ lower-than- consensus numbers
Expect transitory factors such as commodities to ease
There are increasing signs that consumer strength worldwide might be waning as global central banks aggressively tighten monetary policy to curb the worst inflation in a generation.
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/USA//SYRIA
This is a little scary! Russia ready to clash with the USA over Syrian skies states Putin
(zerohedge)
Russia ‘Ready’ For Clash With US Over Syrian Skies, Putin Says
SUNDAY, JUL 30, 2023 – 10:00 PM
President Putin in a Saturday statement given to the press significantly ramped up his rhetoric regarding a potential clash with the United States over Syria.
TASS media quoted him as saying that “Russia is ready for any scenario” if it comes to that, but still “does not want a direct military clash with the US.”
This summer has seen a series of near-miss incidents between Russian fighter jets and American MQ-9 Reaper drones. In two incidents this month, the US drones were actually damaged from the encounters, which has reportedly involved the Russian warplanes shooting flares or else possibly dumping fuel.
The US drones can be damaged by these flares, which according to the Pentagon has happened. When asked about this, Putin stressed in the new comments that “we are always ready for any scenario, but no one wants this.”
“On an American initiative, we once created a special mechanism to prevent these conflicts; we have department heads that communicate directly with each other, and consult on any crisis situation,” he said of a military-to-military contact hotline intended to avoid inadvertent clash. “This shows that no one wants clashes.”
Both sides have blamed the other for ‘unsafe’ and ‘irresponsible’ aerial operations over Syria. Russia’s RT has tallied the following, from Moscow’s perspective:
The Russian military has reported a total of 23 dangerous incidents involving its aircraft and those of the US-led coalition since early 2023, said Admiral Oleg Gurinov, the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria. Most incidents took place in July, he added.
In 11 cases, Russian pilots recorded being targeted by Western weapon systems. Such provocations by the US-led coalition led to the automatic engagement of onboard defense systems which released decoy flares, the admiral told journalists.
Just last week, a US Reaper drone was said to be “severely damaged” after a high-risk intercept by a Russian Su-35 fighter.
These near-misses over Syrian skies also come amid the backdrop of the Ukraine war, where the nuclear-armed superpower rivals keep inching toward potential direct conflict. Russian media has framed Putin’s new comments as also a warning directed against NATO broadly, in the contexts of both Syria and Ukraine.
Previously, we’ve pointed out that In Syria, successive US administrations going back to Obama have justified any and all US military actions as based on “countering ISIS” – even though at this point the Islamic State has long been driven underground and was defeated. Russia and Syria have charged that the US really just wants to steal Syria’s oil and gas resources, as part of the continued economic war against Damascus.
Days ago, The Wall Street Journal appeared to agree with this assessment, in a rare and surprise admission…
Where are the terrorists vs. where is the American troop occupation located? WSJ belatedly concedes the following…
“The U.S. still has about 900 troops in Syria that are assisting a local partner, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in combating the remnants of Islamic State,” the report acknowledges. “But those U.S. troops are operating in the east, far from the northwest enclave where suspected Islamic State and al Qaeda leaders have been operating.”
This mainstream media admission concerning jihadist-infested Idlib province in Syria’s northwest, while good, comes many years late, as is typical of belatedly acknowledged inconvenient truths.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Ukrainian drones strike Moscow’s financial district
(zerohedge)
Watch: Drones Strike Moscow’s Financial District
SATURDAY, JUL 29, 2023 – 10:04 PM
Early Sunday morning, there are reports of several drone strikes in ‘Moscow City’ – a very high-end business district just 2.8 miles from the Kremlin.
“Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow at night. The facades of the [Moscow] City’s two office towers sustained minor damage. There are no casualties or injuries,”Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said on Telegram.
Of course, we have no confirmation that these were Ukrainian drones.
News agency TASS cited emergency services as saying that there was “an explosion” between the fifth and the sixth floor of the 50-story building in the ‘IQ-Quarter’ complex, which has three high-rise buildings.
The aftermath of the strike:
The damaged building has been evacuated, officials said. The evacuations from other Moscow City buildings are underway.
END
ROBERT H TO US:
Hal Turner Radio Show – VIDEO: Ukraine Troops SURRENDER en-masse; WHITE FLAGS on Tanks
It was only a matter of time before this happened .. this past week in one battle over 22 vehicles were destroyed with personnel .. it is a meat grinder where Ukrainians are being wholesale slaughtered .. no state can force people to endlessly die .. human nature is to live .. no matter what Zelensky or his enablers want There will be more of this in days ahead …
One in 35 health care workers at a Swiss hospital had signs of heart injury associated with the vaccine, mRNA-1273, researchers found.
“mRNA-1273 booster vaccination-associated elevation of markers of myocardial injury occurred in about one out of 35 persons (2.8%), a greater incidence than estimated in meta-analyses of hospitalized cases with myocarditis (estimated incidence 0.0035%) after the second vaccination,” the researchers wrote in the paper, published by the European Journal of Heart Failure.
In a generally healthy population, the level would be about 1 percent, the researchers said.
The group experiencing the adverse effects was followed for only 30 days, and half still had unusually high levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, an indicator of subclinical heart damage, at follow-up.
The long-term implications of the study remain unclear as little research has tracked people over time with heart injury after messenger RNA vaccination, which is known to cause myocarditis and other forms of heart damage.
“According to current knowledge, the cardiac muscle can’t regenerate, or only to a very limited degree at best. So it’s possible that repeated booster vaccinations every year could cause moderate damage to the heart muscle cells,” University Hospital Basel professor Christian Muller, a cardiologist and the lead researcher, said in a statement.
Moderna did not respond to a request for comment.
None of the patients experienced a major adverse cardiac event, such as heart failure, within 30 days of booster vaccination, and none had electrocardiogram changes.
The people with elevated levels were advised to avoid strenuous exercise, which may have mitigated more serious problems, the researchers said.
No imaging was done to examine the participants’ hearts, despite imaging being recommended by many cardiologists in cases of suspected vaccine-induced myocarditis.
It’s possible that imaging would have revealed inflammation, which could cause scarring or irregular heartbeat, Dr. Andrew Bostom, a heart expert in the United States who was not involved in the research, told The Epoch Times.
Dr. Anish Koka, an American cardiologist, said that the findings were “super useful to see how ‘cardioactive’ the booster is” but that it was hard to say how significant the elevated troponin levels were, particularly without a comparison to baseline levels. “There is really nothing clinically concerning at 30 days to report,” he said on Twitter.
Study Methods
Researchers posited that the incidence of vaccine-associated heart injury was more prevalent than previously thought following messenger RNA booster vaccination because of a lack of symptoms or mild symptoms.
They defined injury as a sharp increase in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on the third day after vaccination without evidence of an alternative cause. The levels of cardiac troponin had to hit the upper limit of normal, 8.9 nanograms per liter in women and 15.5 nanograms per liter in men.
All workers at the University Hospital Basel scheduled to receive a Moderna booster for the first time were offered a chance to participate in the study, unless they experienced a cardiac event or underwent heart surgery within 30 days of vaccination. The workers received a booster, which is half the dosage level of the primary series shots, from Dec. 10, 2021, to Feb. 10, 2022. The cohort ended up being 777 workers, including 540 females. The median age was 37 years.
Among the participants, 40 had elevated levels of cardiac troponin. Alternative causes were identified in 18. For the other 22, the researchers determined they had “vaccine-associated myocardial injury.” The median age of the 22 was 46. All but two were women, making the percentage of women with elevated levels higher than the percentage of men (3.7 percent versus 0.8 percent), which contrasts with most of the previous literature on vaccine-induced myocarditis. That could stem from women receiving a higher vaccine dose per body weight, the researchers said.
Baseline levels were not recorded because the hospital’s COVID-19 task force and the researchers decided that the study “should interfere as little as possible with the motivation of the hospital staff to obtain the mRNA-1273 first booster vaccination and the logistics of booster vaccination itself.”
None of the people with elevated markers had a history of heart disease. While half experienced symptoms, most symptoms were nonspecific like fever. Two participants suffered from chest pain. And two, according to the Brighton Collaboration case definition, likely suffered myocarditis.
Testing was done for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T because of its sensitivity.
“This marker is extremely sensitive—with other methods such as MRI we wouldn’t have been able to detect any damage to the cardiac muscle, as it only becomes visible once the damage there is about three to five times greater,” Dr. Muller said.
The researchers were not able to figure out the mechanism for the vaccine hurting the heart muscle.
The authors reported some conflicts of interest, including Dr. Muller reporting grants from drugmakers such as Novartis and Roche. The study was funded by the University of Basel and the University Hospital Basel.
Limitations include the lack of baseline levels and lack of imaging.
Previous Findings, and Pending Study
Several other prospective studies examine myocarditis following Pfizer vaccination.
In Thailand, researchers found that 29 percent of 301 adolescents developed cardiovascular effects, including chest pain, after a second Pfizer dose. Seven were diagnosed with heart inflammation.
A gender disparity e.g. females? Potential! 3 cases of intracranial aneurysm rupture shortly after receiving the Pfizer mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. developed aneurysmal SAH within 3 days following vaccine
among women, the damage to the heart is not relegated to males! Parents be warned as to sudden cardiac arrest, death among your girl child on the field due to silent myocarditis, adrenaline surge
‘Aims: To explore the incidence and potential mechanisms of oligosymptomatic myocardial injury following COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccination.
Methods and Results: Hospital employees scheduled to undergo Moderna mRNA-1273 booster vaccination were assessed for mRNA-1273 vaccination-associated myocardial injury, defined as acute dynamic increase in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentration above the sex-specific upper-limit of normal on day 3 (48-96h) after vaccination without evidence of an alternative cause. To explore possible mechanisms, antibodies against IL-1RA, the SARS-CoV2-Nucleoprotein(NP) and -Spike(S1) proteins and an array of 14 inflammatory cytokines were quantified.
Among 777 participants, median age 37 years, 69.5% women, 40 participants(5.1% [95%CI, 3.7-7.0%]) had elevated hs-cTnT concentration on day 3 and mRNA-1273 vaccine-associated myocardial injury was adjudicated in 22 participants (2.8% [95%CI, 1.7-4.3%]). Twenty cases occurred in women (3.7% [95%CI, 2.3-5.7%]), two in men (0.8% [95%CI, 0.1-3.0%]). Hs-cTnT-elevations were mild and only temporary.
No patient had ECG-changes, and none developed major adverse cardiac events within 30 days (0% [95%CI, 0-0.4%]). In the overall booster cohort, hs-cTnT concentrations (day 3; median 5 [IQR, 4-6] ng/L) were significantly higher compared to matched controls (n=777, median 3 [IQR, 3-5] ng/L, p<0.001). Cases had comparable systemic reactogenicity, concentrations of anti-IL-1RA, anti-NP, anti-S1, and markers quantifying systemic inflammation, but lower concentrations of IFN-λ1(IL-29) and GM-CSF versus persons without vaccine-associated myocardial injury.
Conclusion: mRNA-1273 vaccine-associated myocardial injury was more common than previously thought, being mild and transient, and more frequent in women versus men. The possible protective role of IFN-λ1(IL-29) and GM-CSF warrant further studies.’
Get her COVID vaccine status, get her myocarditis status, get that data before we get spun by the corrupted media; place the vaccine on table as possible cause e.g. Damar, Jamie, Bronny, Shane etc.
‘The FIFA Women’s World Cup was recently shaken by a terrifying incident involving Colombian striker Linda Caicedo.
Caicedo was rushed to hospital after suffering from a medical emergency.
Video footage captured the moment when Caicedo stopped abruptly, clutching her chest before falling to the ground during a routine training session in Sydney, Australia.’
Prominent Vaccine Advocate Dies Shortly after ‘Turbo Cancer’ Diagnosis READ MORE…
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VACCINE IMPACT/
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Emergency alert declared on Friday and Saturday
(zerohedge)
NatGas, Coal, Nuclear Power Save Largest US Grid As Emergency Alert Declared For Second Day
FRIDAY, JUL 28, 2023 – 04:53 PM
Update (1653ET):
PJM Interconnection is being saved by natural gas, coal, and nuclear power generation as temperatures surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the Mid-Alantic.
Power prices surge in some parts of the PJM as customers crank up their air conditioners.
PJM’s load forecast is currently around 144,363 megawatts as of 0419 ET.
Some say the world is “boiling,” … others might say it’s summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
Where is the power generation from renewable sources? It appears that fossil fuels and nuclear power generation are doing the heavy lifting to ensure the grid doesn’t collapse.
* * *
Update (Friday):
PJM Interconnection LLC declared another Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 through Friday. Excessive heat advisories and warnings cover much of PJM’s grid across 13 states, from Illinois to New Jersey, with over 65 million customers.
Here’s a map of the PJM grid:
The latest National Weather Service data shows that advisories and warnings for heat plague most of PJM’s grid.
“PJM has issued these alerts to help prepare generators for the onset of intense heat,” the grid operator said.
This is the second day the largest US grid operator declared a level one emergency. On Thursday, PJM’s preliminary peak load was around 148,000 megawatts and is forecasted to peak at around 155,000 megawatts later on Friday.
PJM expects hot weather to persist through Saturday. Bloomberg data shows average temperatures across the Lower 48 are expected to peak on Saturday and possibly revert to 5-10-30-year averages. Also, notice how the yearly temperature averages have plateaued for the Northern Hemisphere summer.
“A Hot Weather Alert helps to prepare transmission and generation personnel and facilities for extreme heat and/or humidity that may cause capacity problems on the grid. Temperatures are expected to be near or above 90 degrees in these regions, which drives up the demand for electricity,” the grid operator said.
How did PJM become so unreliable all of a sudden? Well, PJM published a study earlier this year that showed the alarming trend of state and federal decarbonization policies across the grid that “present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry.”
So before corporate media blames ‘climate change’ for power grid woes, remember decarbonization policies have sparked these instabilities.
* * *
A heat wave continues to blast the Midwest, Northeast, and South through the end of the work week, forcing the largest US grid operator to declare a level one emergency for Thursday as tens of millions of people crank up air conditioners to escape scorching temperatures as summer in the Northern Hemisphere peaks.
On Wednesday evening, PJM Interconnection LLC declared an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 in 13 states that stretch from Illinois to New Jersey with over 65 million customers. PJM is concerned about maintaining adequate power reserves on Thursday as power demand is set to soar because of air conditioners. It expects demand to reach 153,286 megawatts as of 1700 ET and has about 186,000 megawatts of generating capacity.
The power mix of the grid shows natural gas, coal, and nuclear are doing most of the heavy lifting of 0600 ET. Power prices across the grid appear normal.
The surge in above-average temperatures for the Lower 48 is expected to peak on Friday and return to normal levels for this time of the year. According to Bloomberg data, 5-10-30-year average temperatures show the Northern Hemisphere summer has peaked.
Before corporate media blames “human-induced climate change” on power grid woes, we must note PJM’s reliability has worsened because of federal and state decarbonization policies.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
NIGER/GOLD AND URANIUM
Niger is a huge producer of Uranium and the suspension of both gold and uranium will impact our derivative players
(zerohedge)
Niger Suspends Uranium & Gold Exports Amid Rumors Of Imminent French Military Intervention
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 10:40 AM
Last week’s coup in Niger is already fast becoming an internationalized conflict situation, as the West African nation’s former colonial ruler France has denounced and condemned the junta—while urging that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum be immediately reinstated. Coup supporters are now attacking diplomatic locations and French interests, including the French embassy in the capital of Niamey.
Bazoum is reportedly in good health following the harrowing events days ago when he was taken captive by his own presidential guard. Interestingly, the very rationale of those who overthrew his democratically elected government (merely two years in) centers on geopolitical matters: growing jihadi violence has become a major issue and he’s been severely criticized for failing to secure the nation and the safety of the population. But others say that’s just a pretext for what was an internal power struggle and military machinations. Currently, there are emerging reports in Mideast-Africa regional sources that Niger (under the junta) has suspended all exports of uranium and gold to France. FT is confirming:
The junta has continued to step up anti-French rhetoric. It announced it was suspending the export of uranium to France with immediate effect. Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of Uranium and France, which relies on nuclear energy for 75 per cent of its power, is a significant importer.
There are already widespread allegations of direct French military intervention being imminent, after on Friday the head of the presidential guards unit Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani declared himself Niger’s new ruler of the country.
France has asserted it will only recognize the only legitimate authority as Bazoum, whose precise whereabouts remain unknown —though he has just met with the leader of Chad, who is reportedly trying to mediate.
France and the now-ruling military have exchanged threats and warnings, amid claims that the now ousted government has been encouraging French strikes against the presidential palace and coup leaders.
Colonel Amadou Abdramane, who is among the coup leaders and a spokesman, has alleged that Niger’s foreign minister had signed a legal order which authorizes external French military intervention to restore political stability. There are even allegations of French forces preparing a missile attack on the presidential palace. France has neither confirmed nor denied that the exiled Bazoum government requested this, however.
Further, Abdramane warned Monday that foreign governments must not attempt to free Bazoum or intervene on behalf of his officials, vowing that bloodshed and further chaos would follow.
Complicating matters, and adding to the geopolitical pressures and tensions, is the fact that Niger has long been a major operating hub for French special forces, with some 1,500 French troops in the country, who regularly conducted joint operations with the prior government.
The ‘anti-imperialist’ nature of coup supporters in the streets has been demonstrated by their waving Russian flags. Alarmingly, while both French and American troops are in the region, the Russian mercenary group Wagner is just next door in Mali. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who days ago popped back up in Russia for the first time since the June 23 mutiny events, in a rare message positively celebrated the coup and blasted past French and Western colonialism in Africa:
In a long message posted to social media, Prigozhin blamed the situation in Niger on the legacy of colonialism and alleged, without evidence, that Western nations were sponsoring terrorist groups in the country. Niger was once a French colony and, before this week’s putsch, it had been one of the few democracies in the region.
Meanwhile, Russian flag-bearing protesters have attacked the French embassy inNiamey…
All of this has prompted a fresh response from President Emmanuel Macron, who said his government “will not tolerate any attack on France and its interests” in Niger. He blasted the coup d’état as “perfectly illegitimate” (ironic given this implies he believes he can bestow some coups with legitimacy but not others).
Tensions are also building along the borders, after coup leaders claimed neighboring allies of the West are plotting against them. West African leaders held an emergency meeting on Sunday in Nigeria over the coup and crisis.
The 15-nation regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) called for Bazoum’s immediate restoration to office, saying it will “all measures” to restore democratic government and the constitution. The biggest warning from ECOWAS was seen in the following statement:
“Such measures may include the use of force for this effect,” it said in a statement.
The White House in a weekend statement said it is “closely monitoring” the coup and events inside the country, while staying in communication with military leaders.
“We remain deeply concerned about the unfolding developments … the United States condemns in the strongest terms, any effort to seize power by force,” NSC spokesman John Kirby said. “A military takeover may cause the United States to cease security and other cooperation with the government of Niger, jeopardizing existing security and non security partnerships.”
But as The Intercept highlights, this is yet another problem and change of government that’s at least in part of Washington’s own making… that is, another African coup leader who was trained by US special forces. According to The Intercept:
BRIG. GEN. MOUSSA SALAOU BARMOU, the chief of Niger’s Special Operations Forces and one of the leaders of the unfolding coup in Niger, was trained by the U.S. military, The Intercept has confirmed. U.S.-trained military officers have taken part in 11 coups in West Africa since 2008.
“We have had a very long relationship with the United States,” Barmousaid in 2021. “Being able to work together in this capacity is very good for Niger.” Just last month, Barmou met with Lt. Gen. Jonathan Braga, the head of U.S. Army Special Operations Command, at Air Base 201, a drone base in the Nigerian city of Agadez that serves as the lynchpin of an archipelago of U.S. outposts in West Africa.
On Wednesday, Barmou, who trained at Fort Benning, Georgia, and the National Defense University in Washington, joined a junta that ousted Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s democratically elected president, according to Nigerien sources and a U.S. government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
But again, France has significantly more at stake concerning the chaotic political situation of its formal colony, given Niger provides 15% of France’s total uranium needs.
Uranium stocks and nuclear power-related companies are sharply up, climbing on reports that the Niger junta has suspended exports of uranium and gold to France with immediate effect (as well as news that Southern Co.’s expanded Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia is delivering power to the grid after years of delays)…
It should be noted that about one-fifth of the European Union’s uranium stock derives from Niger.
From the West’s perspective, looming large in the background is expanding Russian influence in Africa. Already there are hyped headlines claiming Putin is now eyeing extending his influence to Niger and across West Africa.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1029 UP 0.0022
USA/ YEN 142.15 UP 1.067 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2868 UP 0.0024
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3216 UP .0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 15.11 PTS OR 0.46%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 162,38 PTS OR 0.82%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.08 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 162.38 PTS OR 0.82%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.11 PTS OR 0.46%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 412.99 PTS OR 1.26%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1959,90
silver:$24,38
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.48 UP 9 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1432
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1447)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.93 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.591…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.950% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.006 DOWN 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 5.14 points or 0.07%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 22.92 PTS OR 0.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 21.31 PTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX DOWN 43.40 PTS OR 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 144.51 PTS OR 0.49%
WTI Oil price 81.57 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.21 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 91.64 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 6//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4620 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.355 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0995 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2836 DOWN .0007 or 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.336 % UP 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.603%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 12,27 UP 1.182 //YEN DOWN 118 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3180 DOWN .0024 CDN dollar, UP 24 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.92
Brent OIL: 85.51
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1/2 BASIS pts to 3.970%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 4.025%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.879%
USA dollar index: 101.64 UP 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.94 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.60 UP 0 AND 11/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 100.24 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ 100 UP 6.07 PTS OR 0.039%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.62 UP 0.29 PTS (72.18)%
GLD: $182.35 UP 0.49 OR 0.27%
SLV/ $22.69 UP .37 OR 1.66%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Oil Soars In July As Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Stocks Up For 5th Month In A Row
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 04:00 PM
While the Chinese manufacturing economy continued its contraction overnight, July saw the 3rd straight month of upside economic data surprises in the US – now at its most positive since March 2021 – crushing talk of ‘any’-landing at all…
Source: Bloomberg
Interesting, despite the surprising macro picture, rate-change expectations for the rest of the year were little changed MoM (albeit with a big dovish drop early on followed by a hawkish shift back to high-for-long by the end of the month)…
Source: Bloomberg
That ‘good’ news lifted stocks – all of them – on the month, with Dow Transports leading the month (along with Small Caps) and the S&P and Dow Industrials lagging (but still up 3% on the month). That’s the 5th straight month of gains in a row – the longest win streak since Aug 2020 …
Source: Bloomberg
The last couple of minutes of the month saw a mini-melt-up in stocks…
Energy stocks outperformed on the month (along with financials?) while Defensives (Healthcare and Real Estate) lagged…
Source: Bloomberg
Cyclicals only marginally outperformed Defensives on the month…
Source: Bloomberg
The gains were supported by another huge squeeze. ‘Most Shorted’ stocks accelerated higher in July by the most since Jan (the 3rd straight month of squeeze/covering – the biggest 3 month rally since March 2021)
Source: Bloomberg
The implied correlation embedded within S&P 500 options crashed to a record low in July (i.e. the index-level risk plunged relative to that of the idiosyncratic risk of all the components as traders sold index vol relative to single-stocks like there was no tomorrow)…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX went basically nowhere in July as stocks soared…
Source: Bloomberg
But this week could be fun…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were mixed in July with the short-end outperforming (2Y -7bps, 30Y +15bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield tried (and failed) twice during the month to break above 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
Which meant the yield curve (2s30s) steepened significantly on the month – but only after it flattened to its most-inverted since SVB’s collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar fell for the second straight month in July, but bounced back from an ugly intra-month low
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were very mixed on the month with BTC and ETH down around 4%, Solana and Ripple ripping higher and Litecoin flailing…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps most notably, Bitcoin volatility dropped to its lowest since 2016…
Source: Bloomberg
July was Oil’s best month since Jan 2022, with WTI hitting $82, back above pre-OPEC-Cut levels from March/April…
Gold rallied in July – up around 3% for its best month since March with futures back above $2000…
Finally, as Goldman sums up the strong market performance ahead of the recent positive economic data as “Uncomfortably Long”. Because the market has already taken meaningful credit for better growth and inflation news, the road ahead could be a little bumpier than in the last few weeks. US equities are the poster child for the tension between macro news and valuation.
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks do not look cheap, but there is little doubt that the macro news – higher growth, lower inflation – is a more equity-friendly mix than was expected. BUT For now, credit markets ain’t buying it…
Source: Bloomberg
With Thursday and Friday being VERY event-risk-heavy, catalysts for some tactical pull-back to reality in stocks are high.
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//
II) USA DATA/
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
CRE troubles continue in the uSA
(zerohedge)
CRE Troubles: US Office Space Set To Contract For First Time
FRIDAY, JUL 28, 2023 – 04:40 PM
The US has nearly 1 billion square feet of empty office space, according to commercial real estate services company JLL. Things could worsen in the CRE market (mainly office) in the coming quarters due to the Federal Reserve’s 16 months of aggressive interest rate hikes. This will continue to pressure property owners who have built their real estate empires on a mountain of debt, potentially triggering a wave of delinquencies and defaults due to high borrowing costs. All this is happening when the office sector is already struggling with reduced demand due to the proliferation of remote work, as well as some companies fleeing progressive metro areas because of soaring violent crime.
The latest sign the office sector has not hit bottom and values unlikely to return to pre-pandemic peaks this decade is the total amount of US office space is set to decline for the first time in history, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from JLL.
A lack of new construction and a plethora of aging office space being repurposed or destroyed will lower the amount of office space, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Less than 5 million square feet (465,000 square meters) of new offices broke ground in the US so far this year, while 14.7 million square feet has been removed, often to be converted into buildings for other uses.
That would mark the first net decline in data going back to 2000, JLL reported, adding that it’s most likely the first ever. –Bloomberg
This means demolitions and conversions of these worthless assets are underway to correct the supply imbalance.
Many downtown districts across major cities in the US are effectively ghost towns as office vacancy rates soar. This has rippled across local communities, forcing retail shops to close because of declining foot traffic.
In Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor district, things are so bad that office towers are being dumped at massive losses or reassessed at half the values.
Across the nation, underperforming CRE office towers and buildings will be sold or reassessed at massive discounts. Many will be demolished, and some will be converted, as the ‘Great CRE Office Reset’ is underway.
Let’s remember there’s a multi-trillion-dollar CRE debt maturity wall over the next five years, according to Morgan Stanley.
Yellow, the third-largest less-than-truckload company that’s in the midst of financial chaos, said in a memo to laid-off, nonunion employees viewed by FreightWaves that the company was “shutting down regular operations”.
All locations will be closed and/or lay off some number of employees. As the memo stated:
“We regret to inform you that your employment with Yellow Corporation, or one of its subsidiaries, (collectively referred to as the ‘Company’) will permanently terminate on July 28, 2023, or within 14 days after (the ‘Separation Date’). The Company is shutting down its regular operations on July 28, 2023, closing and/or laying off employees at all of its locations, including yours (the ‘Shut Down’).”
The company on Friday morning laid off an unknown number of office employees, most of which were nonunion. It said in a memo to the laid-off employees that it was unable to alert them previously of this closing of business “because the Shut Down was not reasonably foreseeable.”
John Murphy, who is the Teamsters National Freight director, advised union employees to collect their belongings from all offices and terminals, in the case that Yellow shutters in the coming days and facilities are not accessible.
Murphy noted Teamsters is continuing to look for financing solutions for Yellow. However, he wrote, “the likelihood that Yellow will survive is increasingly bleak. Yellow continues to clear its system, and it appears to be laying off personnel and closing entire terminals across the country. All Yellow employees should, in our opinion, prepare for the worst, as Yellow appears to be headed to a complete shutdown within the next few days.”
Employees were notified of the layoffs on Friday morning in voice-only calls. At least three executives laid off large portions of their teams:
Yellow Chief Information Officer Annlea Rumfola informed her team of some 300 technology employees that Friday was their last day, according to an employee on the call.
Steve Selvig, vice president of customer care at Yellow, informed an unknown number of customer service employees that Friday was their last day, according to an employee on the call and a local news publication.
Yellow Chief Commercial Officer Jason Bergman invited the following teams to a call that said Friday was their last day: local sales divisions 1, 2 and 4; all inside sales; multiple regions of corporate sales; exhibit operations managers; and Yellow third-party logistics sales. This came from two employees on the call. FreightWaves reviewed screenshots of emails sent before and a recording of the call. A Yellow representative told FreightWaves after publication that not all teams invited were laid off.
Terminated employees were instructed to receive information regarding their severance pay, health care, W-2s, and other key documents through an Oracle platform, as their access to company systems will be terminated on Friday. According to a memo distributed to terminated employees viewed by FreightWaves, severance for nonunion workers depends on title and length of tenure at the company:
It’s unclear why the Yellow third-party logistics sales team was invited to the layoff call, as the company is actively seeking to sell its logistics arm. A Yellow representative said in an emailed statement after the story was published that the Yellow Logistics organization has remained intact, including the Yellow Logistics salesforce.
A Yellow representative said in an emailed statement to FreightWaves after the story was published that customers can contact Yellow’s support line at 800-610-6500 or customer.care@myyellow.com.
“Yellow has retained a robust customer service team that is fully capable of handling inquiries and assisting with all support that customers might need,” the representative said.
Yellow, a 99-year-old company headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, employs some 30,000 workers. About 22,000 of them are represented by the Teamsters union. Teamsters and Yellow have been locked in a monthslong strife over changing key work rules at the trucking fleet. Now, sources say Yellow may file for bankruptcy imminently.
In a call to Yellow sales teams, Bergman shared a statement on the company’s potential shuttering — and pinned the blame on the Teamsters’ refusal to negotiate with the company:
“Since last January, we have made every attempt to meet with the IBT. The IBT’S refusal to negotiate for nine months, its freezing of our essential business plan, One Yellow and, finally, its strike authorizations caused customers to find alternative freight carriers and it’s had a catastrophic effect on our business. When IBT leaders were finally ready to meet this week, it was too late. By then, the IBT strike threat had already a devastating impact on our business, [unclear] investors and causing customers to quickly depart. Given this impact to our business, we are forced to announce additional headcount reductions of non-union employees.”
“In the meantime, TNFINC and the IBT continue to try to work with the Government to determine whether there is a way to protect the Teamster families at Yellow. TNFINC and the IBT remain willing to work with Yellow and its lenders or potential lenders. Hope, however, is fading. Unfortunately, despite more than a decade of concessions totaling billions of dollars given to the Company by Teamster members as well as a massive government bailout loan in 2020, Yellow may finally be succumbing to its enormous debt burden.”
Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. ceased all operations at 12 p.m. Sunday, according to a notice on the gates at its terminals.
Separate internal documents showed the procedures for closing the facilities as well as “talking points” to be used when informing union employees not to show up for their shifts. The documents indicated the company plans to issue a public statement Monday updating “the state of the company and the operation.”
On Friday, Yellow laid off most of its nonunion employees in areas like customer service, information technology and sales. The company stopped making pickups earlier in the week and has been delivering the remaining freight in its network ahead of what appears to be a permanent closure.
After months of negotiations with its Teamsters workforce, the carrier has been unable to reach terms over proposed operational changes it has said were required for its survival. In a breach of contract lawsuit filed last month regarding the matter, the company said it could be out of cash as soon as mid-July.
Most are expecting Yellow to announce it will file for bankruptcy Monday.
end
Thirty thousand Yellow employees are now out of a job
(zerohedge)
Teamsters Notified That Trucking Giant Yellow Ceases Operations
Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. ceased all operations at 12 p.m. Sunday, according to a notice on the gates at its terminals.
Separate internal documents showed the procedures for closing the facilities as well as “talking points” to be used when informing union employees not to show up for their shifts. The documents indicated the company plans to issue a public statement Monday updating “the state of the company and the operation.”
On Friday, Yellow laid off most of its nonunion employees in areas like customer service, information technology and sales. The company stopped making pickups earlier in the week and has been delivering the remaining freight in its network ahead of what appears to be a permanent closure.
After months of negotiations with its Teamsters workforce, the carrier has been unable to reach terms over proposed operational changes it has said were required for its survival.
In a breach of contract lawsuit filed last month regarding the matter, the company said it could be out of cash as soon as mid-July.
“Today’s news is unfortunate but not surprising,” stated Sean O’Brien, Teamsters general president.
“Yellow has historically proven that it could not manage itself despite billions of dollars in worker concessions and hundreds of millions in bailout funding from the federal government. This is a sad day for workers and the American freight industry.”
Most are expecting Yellow to announce it will file for bankruptcy Monday.
The bankruptcy leaves 30,000 Yellow employees, including 22,000 Teamsters, without jobs.
end
TEXA
Texas manufacturing contracts the most in 7 years
(zerohedge)
Texas Manufacturing Production Contracts Most In 7 Years (Ex-COVID); Respondents Blame “Political Incompetence”
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 11:00 AM
Texas factory activity declined in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell three points to -4.2, a reading indicative of a slight contraction in output. That is the largest contraction – outside of the COVID lockdowns – since June 2016…
Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction in June.
The new orders index has been in negative territory for more than a year and held steady this month at -16.6. The growth rate of orders index inched down to -23.7, its lowest value since mid-2020. The capacity utilization index edged down from -4.9 to -6.0, while the shipments index plunged 14 points to -17.0.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in June.
The general business activity and company outlook indexes remained negative, though both moved up, coming in at -23.2 and -10.7, respectively. The outlook uncertainty index ticked up to 16.7, in line with its series average.
Price pressures evaporated, while wage pressures remained elevated.
We expect slower activity in the coming months as customer destocking continues as their business slows. We expect to hold onto as many trained employees as we can, expecting a return to growth in 2024.
Inflation continues to take a toll on employee salaries and benefits. Costs of materials, parts, external labor, and shipping continue to increase as suppliers mitigate the loss of volumes in price to sustain or increase profit levels. Customers continue to give mixed messages around supply and demand as consumer spending is not consistent. Customers are just now working off surplus inventories from 2022; as anticipated, purchases occurred due to supply/demand woes, war impact and high inflation costs.
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
We continue to struggle to find qualified staff. We intend to hire more people and embark on a significant capital improvement project (including new building, new manufacturing equipment) so that we have capacity available as soon as the economy starts to recover after the recession that everyone is predicting.
We are still seeing some long lead times, currently with the aluminum industry.
We are starting to see a major shift in industrial production and a lack of confidence.
Fabricated metal product manufacturing
Supply constraints improved versus the prior year, but there are still some ongoing challenges.
Food manufacturing
We are definitely slower from a production perspective. We expect production to pick up a little later in the summer in preparation of fourth-quarter sales.
Stagflation. Political incompetence is creating an unstable business environment.
Machinery manufacturing
We’re investing now with new equipment that should increase our competitiveness even in a potentially shrinking market six months from now. The last 12 months have provided the wherewithal to be able to make such investment. We’ll see how it shakes out.
We are living hand to mouth. The surge in orders could easily stop as quickly as it started. We’re month to month.
Business has slowed down significantly over the last few months and is now holding steady at a relatively low level.
Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing
The interest rate is too high and is eating away our profits.
Paper manufacturing
Orders are cooling off a little from and already-reduced level. Our industry cooled off a few quarters ago, and now we are feeling the same thing.
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing
We service retailers. They are tentative; we are wary.
Primary metal manufacturing
Section 142 tariffs raise our costs, rendering us uncompetitive with foreign competitors who don’t pay that cost.
Incoming orders are off substantially, especially in the residential building and construction markets we produce raw material for. Also, the percentage of imports of aluminum extrusions is at its highest level in several years, going back to when China was subsidizing their aluminum extrusion industry for shipments to the U.S. We are also being affected severely by Mexico shipping extrusions to the U.S. without having to pay Section 232 tariffs. Our industry is at a critical state at this point.
Printing and related support activities
We have started to get very busy with a large job that we knew was coming and has now arrived. Because of this and a couple of other nice large jobs we have landed, we will be busy during the summer and into the fall. It’s a good thing because our regular business from regular customers is in the ditch right now. I’m hearing from many others in our industry that it’s slow times for them, so we are very fortunate to have the work we have.
Textile product mills
June has been much stronger than anticipated across all channels. We think our consumer (which tends to be high end and high income) is feeling more confident about inflation and the future economic outlook and is back to spending.
Not exactly the ‘glowing pictures of Bidenomics’ that The White House is projecting.
The great migration from blue states to red states:
(zerohedge)
Great Wealth Migration: New York, California Tax Revenue Tumbles Amid Exodus
SUNDAY, JUL 30, 2023 – 11:00 AM
Readers are already familiar with the mass migration from the Democratic strongholds of California and New York, known for high crime and tax rates. We have delved into this in our article, “Americans Continue To Flee High-Tax New York And California,” highlighting Texas and Florida as preferred destinations.
California and New York have sustained population declines during Covid and after, that have long-term implications for local economies. The exodus means workers with six-figure salaries in technology, finance, real estate, and entertainment are going elsewhere, which will reduce tax revenue for the state.
MyEListing.com, an online real estate portal, used IRS migration data to reveal California and New York lost $343 million and $299 million in 2021, respectively, due to the surge in migration outflows.
The beneficiaries of the outflow are Florida and Texas, which took in $12.4 billion and $10.7 billion, respectively.
“Despite its numerous attractions, from the booming tech industry and world-class universities to beautiful landscapes and cultural richness, California’s high personal income tax rates seem discouraging for many high-wealth individuals. This, coupled with the state’s high cost of living, will likely fuel a wealth migration out of California,” MyEListing wrote in the report.
The exodus from California is so severe that state demographers forecasted the total population will be the same today as in 2060.
If left unchecked, the largest outflows of residents from specific metro areas could experience a fiscal crisis. Such a development would be tragic for Democrat-controlled cities already plunging into crisis as progressive politicians fail to enforce law and order.
end
How Much More Will Homebuilders Have To Reduce Prices To Increase Sales?
Median new home prices are plunging. What will homebuilders do for an encore to entice buyers?
Median new home sales prices vs new home sales, data from the Census Department, chart by Mish
Existing homes sales prices remain stubbornly high as measured by Case-Shiller repeat sales of the same home.
In contrast, homebuilders have passed on lumber price discounts, offer interest rate buydowns, and now build smaller homes.
Median New Home Sales Price vs Recessions
Peak-to-Trough Declines
Great Recession: $262,600 to $204,200: 22.2 Percent Decline
Current: $496,800 to $415,400: 16.4 Percent Decline
New Home Sales vs Median Sales Price Detail
Buyers hit a brick wall on price with a peak of $496,800 in October of 2022. Median price has fallen 16.4 percent since then.
Price declines of 10 percent or more are usually associated with recessions. We now have a recovery of sorts from -10.39 percent to -4.0 percent, but that’s primarily due to easier comparisons, not rising prices.
Mortgage News Daily Rates
Buyers hit the brick wall in price when mortgage rates approached 7.0 percent. Transactions started declining much quicker.
The transaction stall point is more apparent in existing home sales.
Existing Home Sales Percent Change
Existing-home sales data from the NAR via St. Louis Fed download.
Existing Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted
Existing home sales went into a massive set of declines starting in February of 2022. Mortgage rates had barely started ticking up.
This brings us back to the lead question: How Much More Will Homebuilders Have to Reduce Prices to Increase Sales?
To boost sales, builders have passed along drops in lumber prices, reduced home sizes, reduced lot sizes, and bought down mortgage rates. But the easy fruit is off the vine.
For existing home sales, current transactions reflect a combination of mortgage rates, price, and willingness of consumers to speculate on rising home prices.
For new home sales, factor in ability and willingness of homebuilders to make homes more affordable with incentives or by building smaller homes. More incentives reduces profit.
Noose Tightens on Consumer Credit, Auto Loan Rejections Hit Record High
Although earnings were pretty good, Ford states that it will lose $4.5 billion on its EV division this year
(zerohedge)
Ford Will Lose $4.5 Billion On EVs This Year, Up From $2.1 Billion Last Year
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 06:55 AM
As we first noted last week, Ford is slated to lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment this year, a $1.5 billion larger loss than the company had expected.
So far this year, the division has lost $1.8 billion and this year’s $4.5 billion loss figure blows away last year’s $2.1 billion loss. Ford also announced that its electric F-150 pickup trucks will undergo a price cut, according to Fox.
Ford beat earnings on Thursday and reported adjusted EPS of $0.72, beating expectations of $0.54. It posted revenue of $45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion, above estimates of $3.15 billion. We detailed analyst takes on the report late last week in this piece.
The company also raised its guidance, forecasting adjusted EBIT of $11 billion to $12 billion from $9 billion to $11 billion. The company is now guiding for free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7 billion, from $6 billion.
But reality has sunk in about the company’s comments regarding its EV production schedule and spending plans. Price cuts in the industry, led by Elon Musk and Tesla, have thrown Ford’s production targets into a tailspin and Morgan Stanley noted on Friday morning that “major changes to the EV strategy” could be necessary, according to a wrap up by Bloomberg.
Ford now says it is “throttling back” on plans to ramp up EV production, the wrap up said. It blamed the price war for EVs as part of the cause and told shareholders it would need another year to meet its target of 600,000 EVs produced annually.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said late last week: “The shift to powerful digital experiences and breakthrough EVs is underway and going to be volatile, so being able to guide customers through and adapt to the pace of adoption are big advantages for us. Ford+ is making us more resilient, efficient and profitable, which you can see in Ford Pro’s breakout second-quarter revenue improvement (22%) and EBIT margin (15%).”
CFO John Lawler said yesterday that the company “has ample resources to simultaneously fund disciplined investment in growth and return capital to shareholders – for the latter, targeting 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow,” Bloomberg added. He now says Ford is “not providing a date” for producing 2 million EVs per year, which was previously the company’s target for 2026.
Is the company pulling an Intel and “kitchen sinking” its guide for the year, or has Elon Musk’s price cuts over at Tesla really put the legacy automaker on the ropes? Ford reports again on October 26, where we’ll get our next glimpse into its continuing operations this year.
USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS
END.
SWAMP STORIES
nice try! it will not work and he will testify
(zerohedge)
DOJ Trying To Jail Star Witness Against Hunter Biden On Eve Of Congressional Testimony
SUNDAY, JUL 30, 2023 – 05:00 PM
The Department of Justice is pushing a federal judge to jail former Hunter Biden witness Devon Archer just days ahead of his hotly anticipated congressional testimony, court documents reveal.
On Saturday, Manhattan federal prosecutors filed a letter asking a judge to set a date for Archer to begin his one-year sentence in a fraud case which is unrelated to Hunter’s various scandals. The request came less than a week after the Second Court of Appeals upheld Archer’s 2018 conviction on two felony charges for his role in a conspiracy to defraud a Native American tribe.
Archer is scheduled to testify on Monday in front of the House Oversight Committee.
Archer — who is set to deliver closed-door testimony to the House Oversight Committee on Monday about Biden — had been challenging the conviction.
His attorney, Matthew Schwartz, said he would be filing a formal response to the request from the US Attorney’s Office by Wednesday — and noted that his client would still testify as planned despite allegations the DOJ letter was an intimidation tactic.
…
Back in 2009, Archer, Biden, and Christopher Heinz co-founded investment and advisory firm Rosemont Seneca Partners, which the first son used as a vehicle for many of his overseas business endeavors.
Archer is expected to testify that Hunter Biden would dial-in his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden during various meetings with overseas partners, as The Post exclusively reported.
“We are aware of speculation that the Department of Justice’s weekend request to have Mr. Archer report to prison is an attempt by the Biden administration to intimidate him in advance of his meeting with the House Oversight Committee,” said Archer’s attorney, Matthew Schwartz, adding that his client will testify as planned despite allegations that the DOJ letter was an intimidation tactic.
“To be clear, Mr. Archer does not agree with that speculation,” Schwartz added. “In any case, Mr. Archer will do what he has planned to do all along, which is to show up on Monday and to honestly answer the questions that are put to him by the Congressional investigators.”
end
This should be interesting: house Republicans ask Garland to release Jack Smith conflict of interest DOCUMENTS
(Yang/EpochTimes)
‘Questionable Political Prosecutions’: House Republicans Ask Garland To Release Jack Smith Conflict-Of-Interest Documents
Republican members of Congress have sent a letter asking Attorney General Merrick Garland to release the conflict-of-interest review of special counsel Jack Smith.
“Mr. Smith has a history of questionable political prosecutions,” wrote Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) in the Wednesday letter signed by eight other representatives.
Mr. Smith was appointed special counsel last November to investigate former President Donald Trump, and is heading both the Mar-a-Lago case in which Mr. Trump has been indicted, and the probe into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach and surrounding events.
Mr. Trump last week announced he’d received a letter informing him he was a target of this Jan. 6 investigation that has already resulted in more than 1,000 charged, and just today wrote on social media that his lawyers have met with Department of Justice (DOJ) investigators and that, contrary to many news reports, he was not told to expect an indictment. The grand jury reportedly convened this morning.
Prior to Mr. Smith’s appointment, it would have been standard procedure to do a background check and review of the special counsel’s “ethics and conflicts of interest,” the letter states, citing a statute.
“We request that you provide us with unredacted copies of all documents related to the conflicts of interest review that was conducted prior to Smith’s appointment, including any reports that were prepared as a part of the review by Friday, August 4, 2023,” reads the letter, which was first obtained by The Daily Caller.
Special counsel Jack Smith delivers remarks on a recently unsealed indictment against former President Donald Trump, in Washington on June 9, 2023. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The letter goes on to call into question Mr. Smith’s prosecution former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, “which was unanimously overturned by the Supreme Court.”
Mr. McDonnell had been sentenced to two years in prison for accepting bribes in 2015. In 2016 the Supreme Court overturned the conviction, ruling that the prosecutors used a “boundless interpretation of the federal bribery statute.”
“A more limited interpretation of the term ‘official act’ leaves ample room for prosecuting corruption, while comporting with the text of the statute and the precedent of this Court,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion. “Setting up a meeting, calling another public official, or hosting an event does not, standing alone, qualify as an ‘official act.’”
“Conscientious public officials arrange meetings for constituents, contact other officials on their behalf, and include them in events all the time. The basic compact underlying representative government assumes that public officials will hear from their constituents and act appropriately on their concerns—whether it is the union official worried about a plant closing or the homeowners who wonder why it took five days to restore power to their neighborhood after a storm,” Roberts wrote.
The letter also points out that Mr. Smith’s wife, Katy Chevigny, “produced a documentary about former First Lady Michelle Obama and donated to President [Joe] Biden’s 2020 campaign, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest for Mr. Smith.” Ms. Chevigny had donated $1,000 twice to Mr. Biden’s campaign in 2020.
“We hope that you, in compliance with DOJ regulations, conducted the required review of potential conflicts of interest prior to Mr. Smith’s appointment. In order for the American people to have confidence in Mr. Smith’s investigation, it is vital that you release the information associated with the investigation of Mr. Smith’s potential conflicts of interest,” the letter reads.
Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Bill Posey (R-Fla.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.), Matthew Rosendale Sr. (R-Mont.), Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), Alex Mooney (R-W. Va.), and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) joined Mr. Burlison in signing the letter.
Supreme Court Justice John Roberts (2L) administers the oath of office to U.S. President Donald Trump as his wife Melania Trump holds the Bible and son Barron Trump looks on, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 20, 2017. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Third Indictment?
Reports of the Jan. 6 grand jury meeting emerged Thursday morning as jurors were seen entering a courthouse, and news reports of Mr. Trump’s lawyers being informed of an indictment that could come as soon as that day followed. The lawyers were seen leaving before noon, and by around 1 p.m. Mr. Trump had taken to social media to dispell the rumors.
“My attorneys had a productive meeting with the DOJ this morning, explaining in detail that I did nothing wrong, was advised by many lawyers, and that an Indictment of me would only further destroy our Country. No indication of notice was given during the meeting—Do not trust the Fake News on anything!” he wrote.
Mr. Trump has claimed the latest investigation is “election interference” on the part of the Biden administration, which has stayed quiet on the topic. When he announced the letter stating he was a target of this latest investigation, he wrote that a grand jury “almost always means an Arrest and Indictment.” He has already pleaded not guilty in one case related to falsifying business records, and another related to classified documents.
“We’ll have fun on the stand with all of these people that say the Presidential Election wasn’t Rigged and Stolen. THE TRIAL OF THE CENTURY!!!” Mr. Trump wrote.
end
Zero chance that Garland will charge Fauci
(zerohedge)
Rand Paul Files Criminal Referral Against “Absolute Liar” Fauci
Senator Rand Paul has filed a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, asserting that Anthony Fauci lied while under oath concerning gain of function research in Wuhan being funded by Fauci’s NIH.
Paul forwarded copies of 2020 email exchanges that show Fauci confirming that he knew “scientists in Wuhan University are known to have been working on gain-of-function experiments.”
The email Fauci sent to then-Inspector General of the Health and Human Services Department Garrett Grisby, cites a conversation Fauci had with, “highly credible scientists,” who, “were concerned about the fact that upon viewing the sequences of several isolates of the nCov there were mutations in the virus that would be most unusual to have evolved naturally in the bats and that there was a suspicion that this mutation was intentionally inserted.”
“Upon considerable discussion, some of the scientists felt more strongly about this possibility, but two others felt differently. They felt that it was entirely conceivable that this could have evolved naturally even though these mutations have never been seen in a bat virus before,” Fauci wrote.
“The reasons for each side of the argument are too complicated to bother you with,” Fauci wrote.
The Senator has repeatedly vowed to expose Fauci’s role in a cover up of the origins of COVID.
Last week Paul also took aim at several virologists who apparently agreed that pursuing evidence concerning a Coronavirus lab leak in Wuhan would cause a “shit show” of problems with China, and that it was better to dismiss the notion out of hand.
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Robert h to us:
Devon Archer tells Congress Burisma pressured Hunter Biden to deal with Ukrainian prosecutor: source | Just The News
Let’s just call it corruption of a “ brand” for sale to all comers. Now what else is coming in September that the Chinese already know? One can safely assume Taiwan will soon be in Chinese crosshairs. And it is just as likely that the South East Asian Sea will become a Chinese Lake.
Devon Archer tells Congress Burisma pressured Hunter Biden to deal with Ukrainian prosecutor: source
Devon Archer delivered bombshell testimony to Congress on Monday, telling lawmakers that Burisma Holdings pressured Hunter Biden in December 2015 to deal with a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the firm for corruption shortly before the then-vice president took steps to force the prosecutor’s firing, a source directly familiar with the transcribed interview told Just the News.
Archer told the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that Hunter Biden was added to Burisma’s board in 2014 because his family’s “brand” brought value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations from the United States, Great Britain and Ukraine’s own prosecutor general office, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the interview was still ongoing Monday afternoon.
“Devon Archer testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was ‘the brand’ and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to ‘the brand,'” the source said. “Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for ‘the brand.”
Archer also directly contradicted Joe Biden’s long held claims he never met with Hunter Biden’s foreign business associates, telling the committee America’s current president got on speakerphone more than 20 times with his son’s business clients.
Archer testified that Joe Biden did not engage in business specific on such calls, instead he “was put on the phone to sell ‘the brand,'” the source said.
The former business partner at the Rosemont Seneca firm, who was convicted in 2018 in a tribal bond fraud scheme, also told lawmakers that Hunter Biden was pressured in late 2015 to help deal with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin’s corruption investigation as Joe Biden was preparing to travel to Ukraine.
“In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin,” the source explained, recounting Archer’s testimony. “Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, ‘called D.C.’ to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call.”
A few days after that meeting, Joe Biden visited Ukraine as vice president and began an effort to force Ukraine’s president to fire Shokin, eventually threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if the termination did not happen. Biden’s defenders have long maintained the firing was not related to Burisma and was a result of U.S. policy because the Obama administration felt Shokin was corrupt.
Shokin has denied being corrupt and claims his firing was a result of his probe of Burisma.
Archer also testified that in spring of 2014, then-Vice President Biden attended a business dinner with his son, Hunter, and his business associates at Café Milano in Washington, D.C., where the Russian oligarch Elena Baturina attended, the source said.
Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is still a skillful number cruncher. Dowd made billions of dollars in profits by being right on the data. He’s right on the data again in his recent wildly popular book “Cause Unknown” The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022. Dowd’s book documents the extreme deaths and horrible injuries that are now skyrocketing in number. The huge problems being caused by the CV19 bioweapon/vax are increasing, unstoppable and no longer need to be proven. Dowd says, “I was not in the room, but at this point, it is a crime because it’s a coverup. I said this in my book in December of 2022. They see the same data that I see, and the data has only gotten worse since then. So, it’s a crime, and it’s a coverup. That’s all you need to know. Forget about the who and the why. It was a bioweapon. It was a mistake. I don’t care at this point. This is a joke. They are killing people. They continue to mandate these jabs at some universities. Some employers still mandate them. The UK is requiring all school children who enter school in the fall to take these shots. This is a joke. This is a crime. This is a coverup, and it’s murder at this point.”
In 2022 alone, Dowd figured 30% of the workforce had been killed, disabled and cannot work or is working chronically ill. Dowd says the death and disability trend for 2023 is way up. Thousands everyday are reporting they are getting sick, and Dowd says the CV19 bioweapon injections are to blame. Supply chains and society are going to grind to a crawl, and Dowd predicts, “Everything is slowly breaking down. You won’t see this on the news, but you will see this when you need something done, and you will experience this. You are going to be gaslit and told everything is fine. There is not problem here. Don’t look over here. We are going to see glacial Mad Max. Things are going to get harder to do. Businesses and services you take for granted are going to become scarce. I think we are going to see a deflation in financial assets that will start soon enough. We will have inflation in things you need like food, medical care and much other stuff.”
Dowd also points out, “ The Justice Department is protecting the looting operation that’s been going on for 40 plus years. Everybody in Washington D.C. is literally stealing your taxpayer dollars. . . .The Deep State protects the looting operation, and they are all in on it.”
Ivermectin is being used by doctors like Pierre Kory as a base drug for treating CV19 vaxed injured patients and unvaxed patients harmed by so-called “shedding.” Yet, it is still being withheld from a public that desperately needs it. Why is Ivermectin being restricted? Dowd says, “For them to start pushing Ivermectin would expose them. They are the ones who said what do you mean and called it horse paste. Criminals and people in coverup mode continue as if everything is fine until they are caught. That’s what happened at Enron. Enron was fraud, and the stock was down 50% from the highs. . . . I was skeptical, and I protected my firm from it and got out of it. This is the same thing. Criminals are going to act as if everything is fine, and they are not going to ever admit that Ivermectin is worth anything to anybody because to do so would unravel their whole thread of lies. I take Ivermectin and I have never been vaccinated, and I take a little dose of Ivermectin a couple times a week.”
In closing, Dowd says, “This is going to become too big to hide. Congress needs to act. These people in the GOP are forming committees on J6 and other things. That’s great and good on you. How about the Covid vaccine committee? Call me up, I’ll share my numbers.”
Dowd also talks about the importance of holding cash, the dollar’s near term and longer term future, gold as a core investment and the wild card of world war.
There is much more in the 49-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the book called “Cause Unknown” The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022 for 7.29.23.
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