AUGUST 1//ANOTHER T.A.S. ORCHESTRATED RAID WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TO $1942.30//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 61 CENTS TO $24.20//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $17.95 TO $935.15//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $43.75 TO $1242.50//UPDATES ON THE UKRAINE VS RUSSIAN WAR//UPDATES ON COVID//VACCINE ISSUES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//PMIs COLLAPSE AROUND THE WORLD//VICTOR DAVIS HANSEN AN EXCELLENT READ///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 20 132 C SG AMERICAS 21 152 C DORMAN TRADING 1 190 H BMO CAPITAL 261 323 C HSBC 7 357 C WEDBUSH 9 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 637 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 113 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 211 661 C JP MORGAN 250 351 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 2 690 C ABN AMRO 11 20 709 C BARCLAYS 32 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 10 737 C ADVANTAGE 24 10 800 C MAREX SPEC 1 905 C ADM 21
TOTAL: 1,006 1,006 MONTH TO DATE: 6,408
JPMorgan stopped 351/6408 contracts.
FOR AUGUST:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 1006 NOTICES FOR 100,600 OZ or 3.129 TONNES
total notices so far: 6408 contracts for 640,800 oz (19.930 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 234 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,170,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 716 for 3,580,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.746 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1510 CONTRACTS TO 144,808 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.45 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 666 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 666 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.45). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1962CONTRACTS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 452 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 655,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 3.730 MILLION OZ// // // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (666CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –124 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 452 contracts: OR 2.260 MILLION OZ (452 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.260 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 2.260 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1510 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.45 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 452 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 655,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 3.730 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF1962 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 666//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (666) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 234 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,170,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1867 CONTRACTS TO 445 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 686 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1181CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $9.50 GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11,100 OZ E.F.P. TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 30.311 TONNES/ + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1364 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $9.50 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 501 OI CONTRACTS (1.558 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2368CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 445,272
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 501 CONTRACTS WITH 1867 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 2368 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 501CONTRACTS OR 1.558 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1364 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2368 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1,867) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 501 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11,100 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 30.311 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH SOME TAS LIQUIDATION AND FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1364 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2368 CONTRACTS OR 236,800 OZ OR 7.365 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2368 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 7.365 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 7.365/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.255% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 7.365 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1510 CONTRACTS OI TO 144,932 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 452 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 452and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 452 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1510 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 452 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1962 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.810 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.09 PTS OR 0.00% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 67.82 PTS OR 0.34% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 304.36 PTS OR 0.92% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1730 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1669 /Oil UP TO 81.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.16 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1867CONTRACTS DOWN TO 444,586 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.50 ON MONDAY. ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2368 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2368 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2368 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 501 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2368LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1867 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.50//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1364 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (30.311) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 30.311 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $9.50) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS, WE HAD FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION WHICH BASICALLY TOOK CARE OF THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 1.558 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11,100 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 30.311 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.50.
WE HAD – REMOVED 686 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 501 CONTRACTS OR 50100 OZ OR 1.558 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6408 notices 640,800 OZ 19.930 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks: 96.451 oz (3 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 96.451 oz
Adjustments; 0 /
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 4343 contracts having LOST 5513 contracts. We had 5402 contracts filed
on Monday, so we lost 111 contracts or an additional 11100 oz will not stand as these guys immediately transferred to London through the EFP route.
SEPT gained 25 contracts to stand at 2452
October lost 202 contracts to 31,629.
We had 1006 contracts filed for today representing 100,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 250 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1106 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 351 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6408 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (4343 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 1006 x 100 oz per contract equals 974,500 OZ OR 30.311 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUSTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (6408) x 100 oz + (4343) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (1006) x 100 oz) which equals 974,500 oz standing OR 30.311 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 30.311 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,209,590,726 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,102,270.124 (376,43 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,107,417.057 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,050,880 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 313.62 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 1
//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
234 CONTRACT(S) (1,170,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
36 contracts (180,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
710 Contracts (3,580,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.910 million oz/281.695 million =49.91% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 0
total: nil oz
adjustments: out of Loomis//dealer to customer 1,217,197.590 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.543 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 281.695 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 270 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 351 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD
482 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 1181 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,802
OCT GAINED ITS FIRST 49 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 49.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 234 for 1,170,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 54,361 poor /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 48,336 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 716 x 5,000 oz = 3,580,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (270) and the number of notices served upon today 234 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 716 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (270) – number of notices served upon today (234 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.730 million oz.
There are 31.54 million oz of registered silver.
thus if we take today’s standing at 3.73 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 34,63 million oz against only 31.5 million registered silver.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A /: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 912.93 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
The Fed raised interest rates again last week. But that’s the past. What does the future look like?
Today, you’ll receive a full recap of what happened with last week’s Fed meeting. I’ll explain what happened in terms of policy moves, what Fed Chair Jay Powell believes will happen next, and what will actually happen.
Importantly, the difference between Powell’s expectations and market expectations creates opportunities for investors to profit from those competing forecasts.
So, without further ado, let’s break it all down…
Last Week’s Fed Meeting, Explained
Last Tuesday, I offered the following forecast of what would happen at the FOMC meeting the following day:
“On Wednesday, the Fed will raise its target rate for fed funds by 0.25%. That increase will raise the federal funds target to 5.50% after being set at 5.25% at the May 3, 2023 FOMC meeting. After Wednesday, we’ll be back in wait and see mode. … The Fed will not declare that rate hikes are over for the year or that they have reached the terminal rate. They need to keep their options open.”
Here’s what actually happened…
The Fed did raise interest rates 0.25% as I projected. At the same time, they warned that rate hikes are still on the table and they could raise rates again as early as September 20.
That makes twelve Fed meetings in a row going back to March 16, 2022 when I got the Fed forecast right, and my advice that the Fed would leave further rate hikes on the table was correct. Events remain uncertain from here, but it’s so far, so good for my forecasting.
I don’t say that to brag, it’s just that I’ve studied the Fed for years and know what makes it tick. They’re really very predictable once you know how they think and what they look for.
Here’s the text of part of the Fed’s press release issued at 2:00 pm ET on July 26:
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”
The FOMC vote in favor of this policy statement was unanimous.
It’s important to look at the Fed’s reasoning behind its moves and to consider what’s next both for the Fed and the U.S. economy.
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the announcement is always more informative than the official announcement and this meeting was no exception. Powell’s insistence on flexibility going forward is obvious.
Inflation Over the Target Rate Until 2025?
Powell began with his usual warnings that tight labor market conditions may continue to put upward pressure on inflation. He said, “The labor market remains extremely tight,” and “Labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.”
Powell also made it clear “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go.” Then, late in the press conference he dropped this bombshell in response to a reporter’s question about future inflation: “We don’t see ourselves getting inflation all the way back to 2% until 2025.”
That does not mean the Fed will keep raising rates until 2025.
The Fed has long said that they will reach a “terminal rate” where they will do nothing further and just wait for inflation to come down on its own. But this is the first time Powell has said when he expects inflation to come back to the Fed’s target level even if they stop raising rates.
It pulls the rug out from under those who expect rate cuts in 2024 or believe that the Fed won’t hike rates again this year.
Powell expanded on this theme that rates will remain higher for longer even if rate hikes stop. He said, “It will take time for the full effects of our ongoing monetary policy… to affect inflation.”
He also said, “What our eyes are telling is that policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough to bring inflation down.” And that, “if data tells us … we need to do more, then we will do more.”
One reporter asked whether a strong economy today might give inflation a new boost even in the face of the Fed’s tightening over the past 16 months. She referred to this as the Barbie and Taylor Swift economy — a reference to strong consumer spending on discretionary and even luxury spending in categories such as travel and entertainment.
Powell replied firmly by saying, “Stronger growth over time could lead to inflation,” and “Inflation has proved stronger than we and other forecasters have expected.”
Looking at the short-term instead of the longer-term, Powell made it clear that a rate hike as early as September is very much in play. He said, “We will continue to make our decisions meeting-by-meeting” and a September rate hike is “possible.”
This gave a new definition to the idea of a “skip” policy.
When the Fed skipped a rate hike in June and came back in July with last week’s rate hike, they seemed to be setting up a pattern of raising rates every other meeting until they hit the terminal rate.
Powell demolished that “every other meeting” schedule. He clarified, “we haven’t made a decision to go to every other meeting.” He said that “a more gradual pace could mean two out of three meetings.”
In other words, the skip tempo is not every other meeting; it means a skip in rate hikes every now and then. And that means a September rate hike is back on the table. In Fed jargon, September is a live meeting.
The Long-Term Outlook for Further Hikes
Longer term, the Fed will be “looking at the whole broader picture” and “if we need to keep fighting inflation … we’ll go ahead and raise rates.” This harks back to the June meeting where the “dots” (Fed financial projections) said that the Fed might raise rates twice before the end of the year.
With the July rate hike now accomplished, that still leaves one more rate hike, possibly in September, waiting in the wings.
In conclusion, Powell offered this reminder that, “The worst outcome for everyone would be to not deal with inflation and not get it down now.”
That goes back to “Volcker’s mistake,” which I’ve mentioned before.
Powell does not want to repeat the mistake of Paul Volcker, who also fought inflation with rate hikes, but cut rates too early and came to regret it.
When Paul Volcker was appointed Fed chair in 1979, he immediately set about ending the worst inflation the U.S. has seen since the end of World War II by raising rates.
Then the U.S. was hit with a recession in January 1980, and Volcker was under intense pressure to cut rates in the face of a recession and layoffs.
He blinked. Volcker lowered the fed funds target rate by seven percentage points.
The recession was over by July 1980, but inflation was not. The Fed and Volcker had damaged their credibility as inflation fighters.
This became known as the infamous Volcker Mistake.
If Volcker had ignored the 1980 recession, inflation might have come down by 1981. Instead, it lasted until 1983 and was only defeated by a recession worse than the one Volcker was initially worried about.
Powell does not want to repeat the Volcker Mistake. He knows how that turned out and doesn’t want to end up in the history books for the same thing.
My conclusion: The Fed is not done and more rate hikes are coming. September is the most likely candidate for the next rate hike as of now.
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
There will be other central banks willing to uptake what Kazakhstan sells
(Bloomberg)
One big gold seller among central banks has even more to offload
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-31 18:46Section: Daily Dispatches
By Nariman Gizitdinov Bloomberg News Sunday, July 30, 2023
In a turnaround that has already taken it from one of the biggest gold buyers to a top seller this year, Kazakhstan’s central bank is looking to cut the metal’s share to as low as half of its $34.5 billion reserves.
Alongside its counterparts in Turkey and Uzbekistan, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has emerged among the institutions that have contributed to a second straight quarter of decline in bullion purchases from central banks, whose buying accounted for nearly a quarter of global gold demand last year.
The Kazakh sales abroad of about 67 tons in the first six months are part of a plan to lower the metal’s share in reserves to an “optimal” level of 50-55% — equivalent to around 300 tons — at the end of 2023, from the current 314 tons. The proportion was near 56% at the end of June, the central bank said in an emailed reply to questions. …
Saudi Arabia is seeking minority interests in major mining operations
(zerohedge)
Forget China — The hot money in mining is suddenly Saudi
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-31 19:00Section: Daily Dispatches
By Thomas Biesheuvel and Jacob Lorinc Bloomberg News via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California Monday, July 31, 2023
A $2.6 billion deal announced last week has set the stage for a potentially landmark shift in the metal and mining investment landscape: the arrival of Saudi Arabia as a pivotal player.
The agreement with Vale SA gives the kingdom a 10% slice in one of the world’s crucial suppliers of nickel and copper — essential metals needed to decarbonize. The kingdom also held other talks, including with Barrick Gold Corp. about investing in a big Pakistan copper mine, according to people familiar with the matter.
Speaking privately, executives at top miners said the value of Thursday’s deal made clear that the Saudis are ready to splash cash around.
The move comes as the question of who controls the commodities needed to both sustain and decarbonize the world’s economies has turned into a global flashpoint, jumping to the top of agendas in the United States and Europe.
China has for years been the dominant buyer and a key source of funding, as it sought to secure supply for its rapid industrialization. But as tensions with the West have mounted, the mining industry is now facing increased pressure to look elsewhere.
Saudi Arabia is seeking to take minority stakes in global mining assets that will over time help provide access to supplies of strategic minerals. The country also is looking to build a metals-processing industry that could in turn make it more attractive for international miners to exploit its mineral deposits — a central pillar of Saudi efforts to diversify the economy away from oil. …
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
This is fascinating: new research is about to be
Exxon About To Become ‘Lithium Kingpin’? Talks Begin With Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Reports Say
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 06:40 PM
Exxon Mobil Corp. is planning to enter the minerals game by becoming a supplier of lithium to Tesla Inc., Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen AG, and other automakers, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.
The sources said discussions are in the “early stages and also include battery giants Samsung and SK On Co.” If the report is correct, Exxon appears to be searching for buyers as it positions itself to capitalize on the electric-vehicle boom amid pressure by ESG funds and the Biden administration to shrink its core oil production and refining businesses.
The people also said Exxon is in talks with lithium producer Albemarle Corp. The company told Bloomberg, “Given Albemarle’s leadership role in the market, people routinely want to speak with us — especially when looking at potential resources.”
In a conference call with investors last Friday, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods broke the silence about the interest in lithium brine mining. He said Exxon wants to extract lithium from underground saltwater, a cheaper and more environmentally friendly method than traditional mining on the surface.
“We can bring it on at a much lower cost, and I think, importantly, with much less environmental impact versus open mining that they’re doing in other parts of the world,” Woods said.
He continued, “The processing of the brine and extracting the lithium is very consistent with a lot of the things that we do in our refineries and chemical plants and, in fact, in some of our upstream operations.”
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Exxon plans “to build one of the world’s largest lithium processing facilities” in Arkansas.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1555
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1580
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.26 PTS OR 1.84%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.41%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 131.93 PTS OR 0.40%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.22 EURO RISES TO 1.1107 UP 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.558 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.13/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.433***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.067*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.471…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.750
3j Gold at $1955.85 silver at: 24.28 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 43 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.02//
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.13// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.558% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8679 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9555 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.961 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.018 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.877 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 5 BASIS PTS AT 4.350
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Drop And Dollar Spikes As Bulls Get Cold Feet
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 08:15 AM
S&P futures are are weaker to start the new month with bond yields flat and Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to session highs, dragging down all Group-of-10 currencies, as the rally that sent the S&P 500 to a 16-month high in July lost momentum after a flurry of companies reported disappointing earnings. Commodities are mixed as China’s Caixin PMI-Mfg prints 49.2, down from 50.5 and missing the est. 50.1.
As of 7:40am, S&P futures traded down 0.3% to 4,600 as the bizarre last minute spike in the S&P yesterday melted away, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded down 0.4%. Europe’s Estoxx 50 drops almost 1% with Asian stocks also lower. The US Dollar was boosted by weak Chinese data as well as the surprise RBA decision to leave rates unchanged. Treasury yields were little changed, while UK and Europe bond markets are similarly listless. Gold and oil fell, while Bitcoin slid nearly 1% and headed for a third straight day of losses. WTI futures fall less than 0.5%. A quick look at seasonals: August/Sept are typically the weakest 2 months of the year, so we may see increasing calls for a pullback, before resuming the squeeze higher. Keep an eye on oil, bond yields, and vol as we await macro data, Jackson Hole, and the Sept Fed meeting. Today’s macro data focus includes ISM-Mfg, JOLTS, Construction Spending, and Regional Fed data.
In premarket trading, major technology and internet stocks are edging lower in premarket trading with Advanced Micro Devices, Electronic Arts and Pinterest all set to report after the close. Arista Networks shares rose as much as 18%, after the communications equipment company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that is above the consensus analyst estimate. Analysts note that the company’s earnings are boosted by its diversified revenue streams. CVS Health rose as much as 1.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the pharmacy chain operator said it would cut about 5,000 jobs to help reduce costs. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Emergent BioSolutions shares soared as much as 12% after the maker of medical countermeasures was awarded a 10-year US government contract valued at up to $704 million.
Rambus shares slide 8.2% as Jefferies notes that the semiconductor device company expects headwinds for DDR4 buffer chipset inventory to continue for the rest of the year.
ZoomInfo Technologies shares fall as much as 20%, after the infrastructure software company cut its full-year revenue forecast. Analysts note continued weakness in software spending, though they remain optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating on the stock saying there’s a “persistent lack of visibility.”
While futures suggest a weaker open on Wall Street later, the buoyant mood of the past months has prompted a retreat among bears as market returns and economic data continue to challenge expectations. The S&P 500 on Tuesday received its most bullish outlook from Oppenheimer Asset Management, which raised its year-end S&P price target to 4,900 and predicts further strength in stocks as the Federal Reserve nears a pivot and the US economy stays resilient.
As BBG notes, with the S&P 500 now less than 5% away from an all-time high, there are signs that investors are taking a pause before a Bank of England interest rates decision on Thursday and US employment figures Friday. The line-up of blockbuster earnings still to come this week includes tech heavyweights Apple and Amazon.com Inc.
“When we look forward from here, we feel that the drivers for the rally may become a little bit more mixed,” said Karim Chedid, head of EMEA iShares investment strategy at BlackRock International. “We still don’t feel that the trough in earnings has come yet. Whilst the macro picture has been stronger than expected, there is no doubt that the tightening from central bank policy is starting to come through.”
Meanwhile, China’s economic weakness reminded markets it isn’t going away any time soon: Chinese new home sales plunged by the most in a year last month, underscoring why policymakers need to address faltering demand and a liquidity crunch in the sector. Caixin PMI figures showed factory activity contracted in July, missing economists’ estimates for a small expansion.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.5% with auto shares leading declines as BMW dropped more than 6% after warning about higher costs for developing electric cars, while logistics giant DHL Group gave a profit guidance that missed analyst estimates. The results highlight growing concern about the durability of corporate earnings and questions about whether stocks can keep rallying after notching big gains in July. In other individual stock moves, HSBC Holdings Plc provided one of the bright spots in Tuesday’s company results, rising after the bank announced a new share repurchase program and earnings that outpaced estimates. Energy names outperform as BP rallies after raising its dividend despite disappointing profit. Here are the most notable European movers:
HSBC gains as much as 3% in London after the banking giant delivered a strong beat on revenue in the second quarter and a buyback near the high end of analyst expectations
BP shares rise as much as 2.5%, reversing initial losses, after the energy company’s dividend hike and buyback announcement eclipsed what analysts said was a drab set of results
Diageo rises as much as 3.3% as the UK alcoholic beverages group offered reassurance over its key US market, offsetting lackluster yearly sales and operating profits
Weir Group gains as much as 6.6%, the steepest advance since March 1, after first-half results beat estimates on most metrics
Redcare Pharmacy jumps as much as 13%, the most since January, after the German online pharmacy formerly known as Shop Apotheke presented strong 1H earnings that confirmed the company’s solid market-share gains, analysts say
Galapagos NV rises as much as 4.6% after being raised to accumulate at KBC, which says it has conviction in the biotechnology company’s experienced management and point-of-care model for CAR-T cell therapy
BMW shares slide as much as 5.9% after the carmaker gave cautious comments on a potential second-half headwind, while also raising guidance for 2023
DHL Group shares fall as much as 4.8% in Frankfurt after the logistics firm’s improved FY23 earnings guidance came short of market expectations, even as the company posted a 2Q beat, Citi writes
Daimler Truck falls as much as 3.4% after reporting second-quarter earnings. Morgan Stanley notes a measure of free cash flow missed consensus
Nexi shares fall as much as 5.9% after the payment firm reported slowing consumption volume growth across key markets amid concerns that a recession could weigh on consumer spending
Man Group shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most in more than 10 months, after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund firm reported 2Q results which reflected a lower-margin long-only focus from clients
Greggs shares fell as much as 7.9% after the sandwich- and-bakery products retailer kept its 2023 outlook unchanged and posted 1H results that weren’t strong enough to push the rally higher
Earlier in the session, Asian stock benchmarks were steady in the first day of August trading, as investors snapped up some bigger tech shares but Chinese equities took a breather after recent gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after six-straight days of gains. Samsung, Alibaba and TSMC were among the biggest boosts. Korea’s Kospi rose, poised to reach a fresh year-to-date high, and Australian stocks gained ahead of the central bank’s policy decision due later Tuesday. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore fell. Key gauges in Hong Kong and mainland China failed to extend Monday’s gains after their best week in months. Investors await further stimulus measures after the latest Politburo meeting as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle.
China investors “are still waiting to see some meaningful comeback in high frequency indicators,” Alec Jin, investment director of Asian equities at abrdn, wrote in a note. “We would expect targeted measures that can boost consumer income and demand in sectors like autos, electronics and household products,” as well as more support for the property sector, he added. The MSCI Asia gauge is coming off its best month since January, flirting with its highest close since April 2022. It rose 4.6% in July amid improved sentiment on China, an AI-driven rally in chip stocks and expectations of a soft landing in the US.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was underpinned by a weaker currency and with headlines in Japan dominated by earnings releases, while a recent poll by Bloomberg also showed that BoJ watchers don’t expect a further policy shift from the central bank this year with April 2024 now seen as the likely timing for a policy change. Australia’s ASX 200 traded positive amid strength in tech and the commodity-related sectors with further upside after the RBA kept rates unchanged.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index climbed by about 0.3% to a three-week high before the release of US economic data including ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job openings. The Aussie is the weakest of the G-10 currencies after the RBA left rates on hold for a second straight meeting, falling 1.2% versus the greenback. Relief rallies in the Aussie were limited as leveraged funds maintained short positions in expectation of further selling following the RBA decision, traders said. The rate-sensitive three-year government bond yield slumped as investors speculated the central bank may be close to wrapping up its tightening campaign. The yen traded weaker against the dollar, adding to Monday’s decline, amid sluggish demand at a 10-year bond auction. While investors had earlier anticipated that the Bank of Japan is moving toward letting yields rise after a tweak to its yield-curve control policy, it bought bonds on Monday to anchor rates.
In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper from the belly to long end of the curve, unwinding gains seen in Asia session after the RBA left policy rates steady while keeping the door ajar to future hikes. US 10-year yield sit around 3.98%, cheaper on the day; yields across the curve are within one basis point of Monday’s close. 10-year gilts lag Treasuries by around 1bp while bunds trade broadly in line. Bunds and gilts are both in the red with German and UK 10-year yields rising by 1bps and 2bps respectively. Traders’ focus during the US session will be on activity data including PMI and ISM manufacturing gauges, as well as JOLTS job openings.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.5%. Spot gold drops 0.4%
Looking to the day ahead, we have a data heavy day. From the US, we have the July ISM index, the Dallas Fed services activity and the June JOLTS report, as well as total vehicle sales and construction spending. In Europe, we have the Eurozone unemployment rate for June, as well as the Italian July PMI, the new car registrations, budget balance and June unemployment rate. From Germany, we have the July unemployment rate, and finally the Canadian PMI for July. We also have several key earnings releases, including Pfizer, AMD, Caterpillar, Starbucks, Uber, Altria, Marriott, Pioneer Natural Resources, Electronic Arts, Devon Energy and Pinterest.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,602.00
MXAP down 0.2% to 170.47
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 539.82
Nikkei up 0.9% to 33,476.58
Topix up 0.6% to 2,337.36
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 20,011.12
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,290.95
Sensex little changed at 66,477.12
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,450.71
Kospi up 1.3% to 2,667.07
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 469.13
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0974
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $85.04/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,955.71
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.30% to 102.17
Top Overnight News
Australia’s RBA leaves rates unchanged, signaling further that it is done hiking (markets were mostly looking for unchanged, although economists were more split, with some calling for a 25bp hike). RTRS
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Jul came in at 49.2, missing the Street’s 50.1 forecast and falling from 50.5 in June. RTRS
Foreign investors are returning to China’s stock market en masse, signaling a bullish shift in sentiment after months of skepticism. Overseas funds added a net 49 billion yuan ($6.9 billion) worth of mainland stocks via trading links with Hong Kong in the past five sessions, encouraged by the new pro-growth policies. The buying spree has taken the year-to-date net purchase to a new high of 230 billion yuan. BBG
The eurozone unemployment rate has fallen to a record low, indicating that the single currency bloc’s labor market remains healthy despite concerns about weak growth. Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, said on Tuesday the June unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent — an all-time low in the eurozone — as it also revised down the rate in the previous two months from 6.5 percent to 6.4 percent. FT
Trump’s lead within the GOP primary seems increasingly insurmountable. Trump and Biden are tied at 43% in a new poll looking at a 2024 rematch. NYT
Top active fund managers say they are struggling to attract money from large investors who are holding back in the face of volatile markets and cash accounts offering the best yields in years. Institutional investors such as pension funds, endowments, and foundations control billions in capital and are responsible for the majority of allocations to the biggest asset managers. Cash sitting in US institutional money market accounts now totals almost $3.5tn, according to the Investment Company Institute, a sum that has climbed steadily this year even as stock markets gather strength. FT
BMW shares slide in Europe despite boosting guidance for 2023 as Q2 auto EBIT margins missed and investors focus on this line from the release (“expects higher expenses for suppliers due to inflation and the supply chain to continue to be a headwind in the second half of the year”). RTRS
BP hiked its dividend by 10%, well above guidance, and announced another $1.5 billion buyback. The surprise payout eclipsed a big profit miss and weakness in oil trading. CEO Bernard Looney sees a strong outlook for oil prices and demand growth on top of “huge demand” for green electricity. BBG
AMZN aims to double its same-day delivery facilities in the “coming years” as it works to extend its e-commerce advantage, although investors question all this spending amid paltry margins in the retail business. Fortune
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 notched its 5th consecutive monthly gain, while participants also digested disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data and the RBA rate decision. ASX 200 traded positive amid strength in tech and the commodity-related sectors with further upside after the RBA kept rates unchanged. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by a weaker currency and with headlines in Japan dominated by earnings releases, while a recent poll by Bloomberg also showed that BoJ watchers don’t expect a further policy shift from the central bank this year with April 2024 now seen as the likely timing for a policy change. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp managed to shrug off the disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 3 months with Hong Kong boosted by tech strength and the mainland kept afloat by further support efforts from China.
Top Asian News
China’s NDRC issued a notice to promote private economy development in China and said it will extend loan support tools for small and micro firms until the end of 2024.
RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10% (vs split views between 25bps hike and unchanged) and noted that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required. RBA reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that, while it also reaffirmed a priority to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe and expects inflation will be back at 2-3% target range in late 2025.
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%; as sentiment has deteriorated gradually since the European cash open and was impacted further by the morning’s Final PMIs. Sectors are similarly negative, with Autos lagging amid marked losses in BMW despite a guidance update as associated H2 commentary flagged headwinds. Basic Resource names are similarly dented post-Fresnillo. To the upside, Energy is the only sector in the green bolstered by Q2 earnings from BP who announced a buyback and increased their dividend while Banks derive support from HSBC. Stateside, futures are modestly softer and have been drifting in-line with European peers throughout the morning but with magnitudes more contained ahead of key data points; ES -0.3%.
Top European News
Germany’s VDMA says German engineering orders in June -15% Y/Y (domestic -18%; Foreign -14%).
German Economy Ministry says the European Commission has made important progress on subsidies for hydrogen power plant talks, but no approval yet.
FX
A session of firm gains thus far for the Dollar amid the broader risk aversion across the market coupled with continued weakness in the JPY against major peers.
Antipodeans remain the marked laggards amid a combination of subdued risk and RBA opting to pause.
Traditional havens are also on the back foot against the Dollar but to a lesser extent vs the non-US dollar counterparts. JPY continues to feel headwinds following the BoJ policy decision and subsequent off-schedule bond purchases conducted yesterday.
EUR and GBP are subdued against the Dollar with little initial reaction seen to the final release of the S&P Manufacturing PMIs, which underscored increasing risks of recession, although prices have been moving favourably amid sharply deteriorating demand.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1283 vs exp. 7.1495 (prev. 7.1305)
Fixed Income
EGBs slip while USTs are mixed/tentative with drivers limited overall ahead of a busy PM agenda; EGBs are under bearish pressure despite deteriorating risk sentiment and welcome EZ PMI commentary re. inflation.
Bunds at the lower-end of 132.64-133.06 parameters with attention still on Friday’s 131.81 low, specific catalysts remain light aside from the referenced PMI commentary.
USTs are more mixed with the short-end bid and the long-end soft though magnitudes are relatively minimal and from a yield perspective it is only resulting in very modest curve flattening
Commodities
WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer intraday as the Dollar remains firm and risk sentiment tilts lower.
Spot gold is pressured by the firmer Dollar awaiting the US ISM and JOLTS data, with the yellow metal sandwiched between its 100 and 21 DMAs at USD 1,968.25/oz and USD 1,950.60/oz respectively.
Base metals are on the back foot amid the broader risk aversion, stronger Greenback, and the surprise contraction in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Geopolitics
White House’s Kirby said the US is not encouraging attacks inside Russia and that the decision is for Ukraine to make, according to a CNN interview.
A drone hit a high-rise building in Moscow and a second drone was downed in Moscow’s suburbs, according to agencies quoting emergency services.
China’s Defence Ministry said it lodged solemn representations to the US side regarding US military arms sales to Taiwan and urges the US to stop all forms of military collusion with Taiwan, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
July Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.7m, prior 15.7m
09:45: July S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.0, prior 49.0
10:00: June JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.6m, prior 9.82m
10:00: July ISM Manufacturing, est. 46.9, prior 46.0
10:00: June Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.9%
10:30: July Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -8.2
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to August, the last month of an increasingly wet summer here in the UK. A bright spot yesterday was a tremendous climax to the Ashes where England levelled a barn-storming series 2-2 after 6 weeks of high drama, a diplomatic incident, interventions from both prime ministers, and a series where but for the weather England could have won 3-2 after being 2-0 down. This will mean nothing to 99% of global readers but it was nothing short of a sensational series.
Unlike with the Ashes, July ended quietly for markets but the month overall was largely positive for assets across the board. Commodities, and oil, stole the show, as supply cuts spurred upward pressure on prices, but the AI excitement saw both S&P 500 and the NASDAQ extend their rally, securing their fifth and fourth consecutive month of positive returns, respectively. However, fixed income took a hit in July, as central banks continued their hiking cycle and near-term cuts continue to be priced out. All-in-all, we had the strongest month in performance terms since January, with 32 of the 38 non-currency assets in our sample ending July in positive territory. In YTD terms, 36 out of 38 non-currency assets are now in the green. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.
Turning to yesterday, it was a relatively quiet day in markets with the main event the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officers’ opinion survey (SLOOS) late in the US session. This continues to be one of the few data points to argue against a soft-landing narrative. The share of banks reporting tighter credit standards for commercial & industrial loans increased (from +46 to +51). The four times since the start of the SLOOS in 1990 (as we know it today) that have seen such tightening have all been associated with recessions. The decline in demand for C&I loans eased a touch (from -56 to -52) but remains very negative. Commercial real estate (CRE) remained a focal point of the tightening in credit conditions, as “banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all CRE loan categories”. There were some more encouraging details on the residential side, as the slowdown in demand for mortgages was the least severe since H1 2022. But in all, while activity and inflation data have been more encouraging of late, it would take an unusual decoupling of the US economy from the bank credit cycle to avoid a recession. Clearly the market is expecting such a “this time is different” narrative. Standby for the June US JOLTS data and ISM today for the next data instalment.
In markets, the SLOOS survey hardly moved the needle and the positive mood from Friday continued, albeit in a subdued session. The S&P 500 gained a modest +0.15% and 10yr US Treasury yields inched up by +0.9bps despite dovish commentary from the Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee. A known dove, Goolsbee emphasised that the most recent inflation prints were “fabulous news” and that the US was now on what he called the “golden path”. However, he was careful to note that the Fed still needed to “play by ear” and did not commit to a view on the September meeting, with the potential for cuts only arising when inflation recedes.
There was little change to market expectations following Goolsbee’s interview, with the probability of a Fed hike in September unchanged at 19%. An 18% chance of a further 25bps hike is priced in for November. Overall, the market is anticipating just over a third of another hike this Fed hiking cycle, and 115bps of rate cuts in total by December 2024.
Across the Atlantic, following the German and French CPI prints on Friday, eyes were on the release of the Euro area flash CPI data for July, with headline HICP as expected at 5.3%, easing from 5.5% in June. However, core inflation surprised to the upside at 5.5% (vs 5.4% expected) rising above the headline result for the first time since the start of 2021. Will it be enough to justify a pause on September 14th? There is still a fair amount of data before then but only one inflation print.
Within the same data package was the euro area economic growth for Q2, which overshot expectations to hit +0.3% quarter-on-quarter (vs +0.2% expected). However, markets did not lend much credence to the beat. When digging into the details, it’s apparent Ireland (+3.3% quarter-on-quarter) created a sizeable upward distortion, while French numbers (+0.5% quarter-on-quarter, expectations were for +0.1%) were also distorted, by the delivery of a cruise ship. In contrast, Germany recorded no growth (0% quarter-on-quarter), and Italy a contraction (-0.3% quarter-on-quarter)
With markets taking on board these prints, European overnight index swaps are now pricing 61% chance of an additional 25bps hike by the end of 2024, down from nearly 90% prior to last Thursday’s ECB meeting. Off the back of this, German fixed income fluctuated over the day, with the 10yr struggling for direction before eventually closing down -0.2bps, while the 2yr was down -1.3bp.
US equities continued their rally on Monday, albeit at a slower pace, with the S&P up +0.15% after a late rally, securing its fifth consecutive month of advances (+3.11% in price terms in July), the longest streak since August 2021. At the sectoral level, the energy sector outperformed on the day, up +2.00%, as WTI and Brent Crude rounded up their third consecutive day of gains, climbing +1.51% and +0.67%, respectively. On the oil side, the market will be watching whether Saudi Arabia announces an extension of its output cut in the coming days. Real estate (+0.70%) and financials (+0.44%) equity sectors followed energy’s lead. The NASDAQ also traded modestly up by +0.21%, whilst the FANG+ index of megacap stocks outperformed with a +0.43% gain. Price action in European equities also saw the same modest risk-on sentiment, as the STOXX 600 climbed +0.12%. The consumer staples sector particularly struggled on Monday after beverage firm Heineken (-7.97%) pared back its full-year guidance, whilst energy outperformed, climbing +1.32%.
As we go to print, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just kept the official interest rate unchanged at 4.1% (the highest level since 2012), thus extending its pause for the second consecutive month to assess if further rate hikes are needed to tame inflation. Most economists expected a hike but it was a close call. 2yr yields are around -8bps lower after the decision.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning. Across the region, The KOSPI (+1.22%) is leading gains with the Nikkei (+0.74%) and the Hang Seng (+0.23%) also trading in the green. However, mainland Chinese stocks are mixed with the CSI (-0.12%) losing ground and the Shanghai Composite (+0.10%) eking out minor gains. Meanwhile, S&P 500 (+0.08%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.09%) futures are seeing marginal gains.
Early morning data showed that China’s private factory activity returned to contraction for the first time since April as the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 in July (v/s 50.5 in June) in contrast to market expectations of 50.1. The data comes a day after the official factory activity remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month. Elsewhere, Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 2.5% in June from 2.6% a month earlier amid the ongoing COVID-19 recovery. Meanwhile, the job availability ratio, fell 0.01 point from May to 1.30 (v/s 1.32 expected).
In FX, the Japanese yen fell to a fresh low of 142.80 against the dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) yesterday conducted an unscheduled buying operation of JGBs to cap the surge in government bond yields after the central bank tweaked its YCC policy on Friday. A 10yr auction this morning was soft but yields are fairly stable overnight.
We had an update in the geopolitics arena on Monday, with Bloomberg reporting that Ukrainian President Zelensky is likely to head to the UN General Assembly in New York come September. It is anticipated that he intends to make the case for Ukraine’s “peace formula”, a blueprint for ending the conflict. Ukraine’s peace plan may also get discussed at a gathering in Saudi Arabia next weekend, with the planned meeting first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Saturday. While Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, and accompanying escalation, gathered attention in July, diplomatic efforts could become an increasing topic in the coming weeks.
Finally on the data side, the MNI Chicago PMI for July slipped below expectations at 42.8 (vs 43.5 expected). This was an increase from June (41.5), but still speaks to continued contraction in factory sector activity. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity surprised modestly to the upside at -20.0 (vs -22.5 expected), and the six month ahead new orders index ticked slightly higher.
Now to the day ahead, we have a data heavy day. From the US, we have the July ISM index, the Dallas Fed services activity and the June JOLTS report, as well as total vehicle sales and construction spending. In Europe, we have the Eurozone unemployment rate for June, as well as the Italian July PMI, the new car registrations, budget balance and June unemployment rate. From Germany, we have the July unemployment rate, and finally the Canadian PMI for July. We also have several key earnings releases, including Pfizer, AMD, Caterpillar, Starbucks, Uber, Altria, Marriott, Pioneer Natural Resources, Electronic Arts, Devon Energy and Pinterest.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
Equities lower, AUD lags post-RBA; US ISM, JOLTs data & earnings due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 05:53 AM
European bourses are in the red with initial catalysts light but sentiment deteriorating further alongside Final PMIs
Stateside, futures also pressured but magnitudes are more contained ahead of manufacturing data
DXY continues to climb to the detriment of G10 peers, AUD lags post-RBA maintained its Cash Rate
EGBs slip despite deteriorating risk and welcome EZ PMI commentary re. inflation; USTs mixed
Crude slumps as sentiment slips and the USD remains bid with metals also dented
Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM, JOLTS, New Zealand Labour Data, Speech from Fed’s Goolsbee. Earnings from American International Group Inc, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Merck & Co Inc.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%; as sentiment has deteriorated gradually since the European cash open and was impacted further by the morning’s Final PMIs.
Sectors are similarly negative, with Autos lagging amid marked losses in BMW despite a guidance update as associated H2 commentary flagged headwinds. Basic Resource names are similarly dented post-Fresnillo.
To the upside, Energy is the only sector in the green bolstered by Q2 earnings from BP who announced a buyback and increased their dividend while Banks derive support from HSBC.
Stateside, futures are modestly softer and have been drifting in-line with European peers throughout the morning but with magnitudes more contained ahead of key data points; ES -0.3%.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
A session of firm gains thus far for the Dollar amid the broader risk aversion across the market coupled with continued weakness in the JPY against major peers.
Antipodeans remain the marked laggards amid a combination of subdued risk and RBA opting to pause.
Traditional havens are also on the back foot against the Dollar but to a lesser extent vs the non-US dollar counterparts. JPY continues to feel headwinds following the BoJ policy decision and subsequent off-schedule bond purchases conducted yesterday.
EUR and GBP are subdued against the Dollar with little initial reaction seen to the final release of the S&P Manufacturing PMIs, which underscored increasing risks of recession, although prices have been moving favourably amid sharply deteriorating demand.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1283 vs exp. 7.1495 (prev. 7.1305)
EGBs slip while USTs are mixed/tentative with drivers limited overall ahead of a busy PM agenda; EGBs are under bearish pressure despite deteriorating risk sentiment and welcome EZ PMI commentary re. inflation.
Bunds at the lower-end of 132.64-133.06 parameters with attention still on Friday’s 131.81 low, specific catalysts remain light aside from the referenced PMI commentary.
USTs are more mixed with the short-end bid and the long-end soft though magnitudes are relatively minimal and from a yield perspective it is only resulting in very modest curve flattening
WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer intraday as the Dollar remains firm and risk sentiment tilts lower.
Spot gold is pressured by the firmer Dollar awaiting the US ISM and JOLTS data, with the yellow metal sandwiched between its 100 and 21 DMAs at USD 1,968.25/oz and USD 1,950.60/oz respectively.
Base metals are on the back foot amid the broader risk aversion, stronger Greenback, and the surprise contraction in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Blackrock (BLK) and MSCI (MSCI) face congressional probes for facilitating China investments, according to WSJ.
Amazon (AMZN) is planning to invest some USD 7.2bln in Israel through 2037, according to local press.
Tesla (TSLA) is reportedly seeking almost USD 100mln from the US to build a semi-truck charging route from Texas to California, according to Bloomberg citing emails.
Germany’s VDMA says German engineering orders in June -15% Y/Y (domestic -18%; Foreign -14%).
German Economy Ministry says the European Commission has made important progress on subsidies for hydrogen power plant talks, but no approval yet.
DATA RECAP
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Jul) 42.7 vs. Exp. 42.7 (Prev. 42.7); ECB “will be pleased to see that deflation of output prices has picked up speed again, falling at the most rapid pace in almost 14 years.
EU Unemployment Rate (Jun 2023) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.5%).
German Unemployment Change SA (Jul 2023) -4.0k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 28.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Jul 2023) 5.6% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.7%)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 45.3 vs. Exp. 45.0 (Prev. 45.0); July saw little movement in selling prices.
UK BRC Retail Shop Price Index YY (Jul) 7.6% (Prev. 8.4%)
UK food price inflation has slowed to its lowest level this year in July, at 13.4% (vs 14.6% in June), according to BRC and NielsenIQ retail analysts.
UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jul) 31 (Prev. 37)
GEOPOLITICS
White House’s Kirby said the US is not encouraging attacks inside Russia and that the decision is for Ukraine to make, according to a CNN interview.
A drone hit a high-rise building in Moscow and a second drone was downed in Moscow’s suburbs, according to agencies quoting emergency services.
China’s Defence Ministry said it lodged solemn representations to the US side regarding US military arms sales to Taiwan and urges the US to stop all forms of military collusion with Taiwan, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
The ‘Ripple ruling’ on crypto was rejected by a federal judge in the Terra case whereby the judge ruled that there is no distinction between public and institutional sales, according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 notched its 5th consecutive monthly gain, while participants also digested disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data and the RBA rate decision.
ASX 200 traded positive amid strength in tech and the commodity-related sectors with further upside after the RBA kept rates unchanged.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned by a weaker currency and with headlines in Japan dominated by earnings releases, while a recent poll by Bloomberg also showed that BoJ watchers don’t expect a further policy shift from the central bank this year with April 2024 now seen as the likely timing for a policy change
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp managed to shrug off the disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 3 months with Hong Kong boosted by tech strength and the mainland kept afloat by further support efforts from China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s NDRC issued a notice to promote private economy development in China and said it will extend loan support tools for small and micro firms until the end of 2024.
RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10% (vs split views between 25bps hike and unchanged) and noted that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required. RBA reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that, while it also reaffirmed a priority to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe and expects inflation will be back at 2-3% target range in late 2025.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.2 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.5)
Australian Building Approvals (Jun) -7.7% vs. Exp. -7.0% (Prev. 20.6%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.26 PTS OR 1.84% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 277.45 PTS OR 1.41% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 131.93 PTS OR 0.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.74 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1555 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1580 /Oil UP TO 79.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.88 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//
Russia getting angrier by the minute
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Escalating War Into Moscow With 2nd Drone Strike On Skyscraper Housing Government Ministries
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 09:30 AM
Moscow’s mayor has said that overnight a high-rise building in the capital which houses Russian government ministries has suffered a direct impact from a drone strike for a second time in three days.
Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that it was the same tower that had been previously struck on Sunday, and separately the defense ministry said it intercepted two more drones over the nearby districts of Odintsovo and Narofominsk. The ministry identified Ukraine as the culprit for the “attempted terrorist attack.”
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had just previewed and threatened two nights ago that he’s ready to take to war to Russian soil, saying: “Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military bases.” He added, “And this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.”
There were also overnight statements by the Russian military describing a wave of drone attacks against Russian naval ships in the Black Sea.
And in a fresh August 1st tweet, Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, also vowed more is coming, saying the following:
Moscow is rapidly getting used to a full-fledged war, which, in turn, will soon finally move to the territory of the “authors of the war” to collect all their debts …
Everything that will happen in Russia is an objective historical process. More unidentified drones, more collapse, more civil conflicts, more war…
The New York Times has meanwhile confirmed that Kiev has stepped up targeting to include intelligence, military, and financial centers of the Russian capital, after the intensified border region activity (particularly strikes and cross-border action against Belgorod) of the past many months of war.
“Drones have exploded over the gilded domes of the Kremlin. They have hit strategic Russian air bases hundreds of miles from Ukraine,” NY Times observes. “They have struck a Moscow tower that houses several government ministry offices, including the one responsible for the military-industrial complex.”
“And they have landed a stone’s throw from one of the main Russian military headquarters, where officers sitting in large situation rooms with vast screens on its walls directly oversee and manage the war in Ukraine,” the report adds.
One thing is becoming very evident, Ukraine is escalating the war into Moscow, as the West remains silent in face of the greatly heightened increased potential for a full Russia-NATO clash, while also still seeking to conceal its own role.
This is also evidenced in the fact that for the first time Zelensky and his top officials have begun owning up to the attacks on Russian territory, openly admitting the cross-border operations after months of denial and cover-up, chiefly for the sake of Western audiences:
Zelensky, May 14: We don’t attack Russian territory
Zelensky, July 30: We’re bringing the war to Russian territory
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby is still sticking by the Washington official line that the US is not encouraging such attacks. He recently reiterated in an interview with CNN that the US administration is “not encouraging attacks inside Russia, decision is for Ukraine to make.”
But this is very clearly obfuscation and outright dishonesty, attempting to escape blame despite it long being known that the US assisting Ukrainian forces with intelligence and targeting information, as has been revealed time and time again.
* * *
Max Abrahms, a professor of international security and author/expert on counterterrorism at Northeastern University, had this to say of the latest Moscow drone strikes [emphasis ZH]…
“The attacks inside Russia against civilian targets do not have the intended communicative effect. The standard Western view is the attacks will signal to Putin the costs of occupying Ukraine so he withdraws.”
“But I believe the attacks only reinforce his priors that NATO is waging a proxy war against Russians whose security depends on weakening Ukraine and securing territories close to Russia. The attacks in Russia validate his worldview.”
end
UKRAINE
Wow!! Gonzalo Lira held in Ukrainian prison for no reason
Hal Turner Radio Show – From Gonzalo Lira – Out of Prison – Escaping
Why this nonsense with Ukraine is tolerance is a mystery.
HUGE! Devon Archer Testifies Joe Biden Met with Moscow Mayor’s Wife in Georgetown – Who Wired $3.5 Million to Hunter – And Then Joe Biden Kept Her Off Sanctions List | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hᴏft
Sounds Ike a mob story on TV except this is reality. Very clear why they did not want him to testify.
World factory activity mired in slump as China, growth slowdown take toll
August 1, 202310:00 AM CDT
Summary
Euro zone factory activity contracts sharply in July China’s July private PMI marks first fall since April Factory activity in Japan, South Korea contract US, Canada activity stabilizes, Mexico hits 7-year high
LONDON/TOKYO/WASHINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Global factory activity remained in a slump in July, private surveys showed on Tuesday, a sign slowing growth and weakness in China were taking a toll on the world economy, though the picture in the Americas was notably less bleak than elsewhere.
The downturn highlighted the dilemma for policymakers who embarked on aggressive monetary policy tightening cycles in a battle to keep inflation at bay and yet also need to try and forestall potential recessions.
S&P Global’s gauge of worldwide manufacturing activity held steady at 48.7 in July, matching the lowest level since June 2020, with subindices of factory output and new orders both slipping to six-month lows. A reading below 50 marks a contraction in activity.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) covering the euro zone as a whole showed manufacturing activity contracted in July at the fastest pace since COVID was cementing its grip on the world as demand slumped despite factories cutting their prices sharply.
There was considerable weakness in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, while France and Italy, the second- and third-largest euro zone economies, also recorded marked deteriorations since June.
HCOB’s final euro zone manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 42.7 in July from June’s 43.4, its lowest reading since May 2020 and matching a preliminary figure.
An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Thursday and is seen as a good gauge of economic health, dropped to 42.7 from 44.2, a low not seen in more than three years.
The manufacturing downturn in Germany deepened at the start of the third quarter as goods producers recorded sharper declines in new orders, data showed.
Meanwhile, France’s factory sector contracted further in July, although the downturn was not quite as bad as first forecast.
“Today’s PMI results are an indicator of the ongoing uncertainty that the euro zone manufacturing sector is currently facing,” said Thomas Rinn, global industrial lead at Accenture.
“Demand is going through a rocky patch. Dwindling output coupled with the knock-on effects of inflation, labour shortages and shifting customer preferences, all continue to put a squeeze on businesses.”
In Britain, outside the European Union, factory output contracted in July at the fastest pace in seven months, hit by higher interest rates and fewer new orders, despite weakening price pressures.
ASIAN STRAIN
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam saw manufacturing activity contract in July, surveys showed, highlighting the strain sluggish Chinese demand is inflicting on the region.
China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.5 in June, missing analysts’ forecasts of 50.3 and marking the first decline in activity since April.
The data was in line with the government’s official PMI reading on Monday, raising challenges for policymakers seeking to revive momentum in China’s post-COVID recovery.
“Manufacturing PMIs remained in contractionary territory across most of emerging Asia last month and the underlying data point to further weakness ahead,” said Shivaan Tandon, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics.
“Falling new orders, bleak employment prospects and high inventory levels point to subdued factory activity in the coming months.”
Japan’s final au Jibun Bank PMI fell to 49.6 in July, from 49.8 in June, due to weak domestic and overseas demand.
South Korea’s PMI stood at 49.4 in July, up from 47.8 in June but staying below the 50-threshold, a survey by S&P Global showed.
Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 44.1 in July from 44.8 in June, while the index for Vietnam rose to 48.7 from 46.2, surveys showed.
In India, growth in manufacturing activity slowed for a second straight month, but the pace of expansion remained healthy and beat expectations.
Asia has been among the few bright spots in the global economy, though China’s slowdown clouds the outlook.
In revised forecasts issued in July, the International Monetary Fund projected emerging Asia’s economic growth will accelerate to 5.3% this year from 4.5% in 2022. It expects China’s economy to expand 5.2% this year after a 3.0% increase in 2022.
RELATIVE STABILITY IN THE AMERICAS
In contrast with Asia and Europe, factory activity in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Mexico was more stable. Activity in Mexico, in fact, bucked the wider downturn trend and expanded to a seven-year high with improvements seen in both output and new orders.
U.S. manufacturing, meanwhile, appeared to stabilize at weaker levels amid a gradual improvement in new orders, but factory employment dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that layoffs were accelerating.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI edged up to 46.4 last month from 46.0 in June, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the ninth straight month of contraction.
PMI gauges in Canada and Brazil both ticked closer to the break-even 50 mark. Canada’s PMI came in at 49.6, with output expanding modestly at the highest rate since February. In Brazil, activity contracted for the ninth straight month, but at 47.8 the country’s PMI was the highest since February.
and governments even before Biden, even in Trump, Clinton, Bush, Obama et al., all using Ukraine across decades as a slush fund ponzi scheme money slush fund, crooks, all of them, now they want WW III
This guy should be in front of a court somewhere…this person is bent on total destruction of the world; IMO not one dollar, not one US dollar or blood was ever to shed for this freak and his madness! Biden is ensuring otherwise.
We deal with Biden and the cabal at the polls coming, in courts. We make sure we understand the money Hunter (who the devil himself has banned from hell as too corrupted for hell the devil has signalled, said Hunter will tuern hell bad, will make the evil beasts in hell worse) got from Ukraine and China and wherever and whoever, we need to get accountability for what…was this pay to play? was this fraud? was this selling US secrets? who is guarding the guards? are the guards themselves thieves and sold out corrupted?
Has mRNA technology gene vaccines suppressed the tumor suppressing immune system, the tumor suppressing portion of the immune system for BRCA, P53, SV 40, Toll-like recptors 7, 8 etc.?
We mean lethal very rapid deadly cancers, rapid metastasis, flaring up from remission etc. Aggressive and rapid-onset cancers that are resistant to any treatment and emerging mainly in young, healthy individuals post COVID mRNA vaccination.
Why has Weissman, Kariko, Sahin, Malone, Bourla, Bancel, Fauci, Francis Collins, Birx, Jha, Hahn etc. not come to the American people to explain what they did with the mRNA technology and the fraud deadly mRNA vaccine?
Why do doctors continue this lie of a safe and effective COVID vaccine when they know it is a lie? Why have oncologists gone silent as the TURBO cancers escalate? Why did Health Canada, PHAC, SAGE, CDC, NIH, FDA etc. promote a COVID vaccine that was unsafe, safety untested, and they knew the mRNA technology, modified or not, was unsafe? They knew the LNP complex was deadly, they knew. How did they benefit? As Suzie was denied her medical exemption or religious or personal natural immunity exemption, then cut her off work and her income, and then she hung herself. This was the result of the ‘inventors’ actions and policies, of FDA, of CDC etc.
Was this case of NHL due to COVID mRNA gene vaccine? Also via the DNA platform? This is an example of the TURBO cancer we are referring to! This is the emergence of cancers now that defy explanation
‘We report on a 66-year-old man who presented with a right axillary lymphadenopathy approximately 10 days after receiving the third dose of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine. The lymphadenopathy gradually enlarged, and physical examination and ultrasound (US) revealed one right axillary 6.99 cm and one right supraclavicular 2.36 cm lymphadenopathy.
Histologic examination of the right axillary nodule revealed anaplastic large-cell lymphoma that was ALK negative and CD30 positive. A total body computerized tomography (CT) scan, positron emission tomography (PET) and bone-marrow biopsy showed a stage-II non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL).
The patient was treated with chemotherapy and a scheme of Brentuximab Vedotin, Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin and Prednisone (BV-CHP) for six cycles and is now well and in complete remission.
The revision of the literature revealed eight additional cases of NHL developed shortly after COVID-vaccination.
There were four cases of diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (one in a patient who was a heart transplant recipient and developed an Epstein-Bar-virus-positive DLBCL), one case of extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma, one patient with subcutaneous panniculitis-like T-cell lymphoma, one case of marginal zone B-cell lymphoma and one primary cutaneous anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (PC-ALCL). In five cases, the lymphoma developed after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination, including one case after ChAdOx1 nCOV-19, one case after the adenovirus type 26 (Ad26) vaccine and one after mRNA-1273/Spikevax (ModernaTX).’
Swollen lymph nodes, or lymphadenopathy, is considered a common side effect of COVID-19 vaccination, more often observed following immunization with novel COVID-19 mRNA vaccines than other vaccines.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Magnificent Seven
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 09:50 AM
By Jane Foley, Senior FX strategist at Rabobank
Since the release of the softer than expected June US CPI inflation report on July 12, the market has been increasingly hopeful that the narrative of a soft landing for the US economy will stick. Oil prices recorded a strong month in July as expectations of more Saudi supply cuts coincided with hopes that demand may stay resilient. Also, US stock market indices continued to probe the upside. The S&P 500 gained 3.1% in July, its fifth consecutive monthly gain. While the upside in US stocks earlier in the year was largely driven by the AI boom in the seven megacap tech stocks, since May there is evidence that the gains have become more broad-based.
That said, niggling worries about economic headwinds remain. We maintain that there is risk that the US economy will enter a mild recession before the end of this year and the US economic data releases due over the coming days could be decisive in underpinning or testing this view. Despite the strong stock market performance in July, equity futures are mostly lower this morning suggestive of some fatigue in the market and growing concerns about the outlook for the world’s second largest economy.
There is no denying the pressures that are facing China. The Caixin manufacturing PMI swung back below the 50 level in July, for the first time since April. At below 50, the index is reflecting contraction in the sector, in line with the official PMI released yesterday. Worryingly, new orders recorded the quickest fall since December, with weakness stemming from the producers of consumer and intermediate goods. A sharp drop in the new export orders sub-index raises questions about the buoyancy of global demand.
In addition, Chinese consumer demand remains soft. Youth unemployment is at elevated levels in China and falling house prices have injected a negative wealth effect. The market has remained broadly optimistic that further support measures will be forthcoming from the authorities, but so far policies have been aimed at the supply side and not the consumer. Data released overnight suggested that home prices in China dropped by the most in a year in July. According to data from China Real Estate Information Corp., the value of new home sales by the 100 biggest developers plunged 33.1% y/y. The news will undoubtedly stir fears of potential defaults in the sector. Last week the Politburo pledged to optimise policies for the property sector.
In contrast to the situation in China, house prices have been rebounding in Australia where a lack of property has overwhelmed the impact of rising mortgage costs in the sector. A little reprieve to mortgage holders was offered by the decision by the RBA this morning to leave policy unchanged for a second consecutive month. The Board is concerned that “many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances” on the back of the 400 bps of RBA rate hikes that have been announced since May 2022. That said, it also recognized that others are “benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income”. The RBA maintained the guidance that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. Australian CPI inflation in Q2 dropped to 6% y/y, still well above the RBA’s 2-3% goal. The AUD is the worst performing G10 currency this morning on the back of the RBA’s announcement.
Yesterday, Eurozone July CPI inflation data recorded a little further moderation in the headline figure, which eased to 5.3% from 5.5% the previous month. However, the core number stood firm at 5.5%. Q2 GDP data registered a better than expected 0.3% q/q rise, led by activity in countries such as Ireland and France. The GDP data, however, have not eased fears surrounding stagnation risks for the bloc. Energy concerns for the region remain on the agenda.
According to my colleague Mike Every, “the recent coup in Niger might seem irrelevant to markets. However, besides adding to a growing list of geopolitical troublespots, the new junta immediately declared it would cease exporting uranium, of which it is a key supplier, to France, whose electricity generation relies on it. The West African Union has already imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention if the previous government is not reinstalled; Niger claims France is set to join those military efforts. More importantly, take what’s happening with uranium here and apply it to many ‘green’ minerals the EU doesn’t control the supply chain of but needs on a vast scale; add Russian and Chinese on the ground influence in Africa etc; and start to see that this kind of geopolitical event might become more frequent and will matter for markets and inflation”.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Russian Crude Shipments Tumble To Lowest Since January As Urals Price Jumps To $65, Breaching Embargo Cap
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 02:30 PM
A few weeks ago, we reported that Russian crude oil exports are finally starting to show signs of decline.
Since then, the slowdown in Russian outbound flows has accelerated substantially, and as Bloomberg’s Julian Lee reports, Russian seaborne crude flows in the four weeks to July 30 slid to the lowest since early January, as Moscow continues to cut supply to international markets.
Russia’s four-week average crude shipments fell by 154k b/d to 2.98m b/d, down by 905k b/d from their peak in mid-May and 400k b/d below the level seen in February.
… even as the more volatile weekly shipments jumped, rising w/w by 548k b/d to 3.28m b/d, although a lot of the weekly swing is due to seasonality.
As a reminder, February was the baseline month cited when the Russian government announced a 500k b/d output cut that was due to come into effect in March. While the cut was clearly delayed, Russian seaborne flows are now clearly in compliance with Russia’s output cut.
A breakdown of Russian flows by destination shows that Indian supplies have dropped sharply, followed by a more modest decline in China shipment, even as shipments to “unknown” countries in Asia have picked up.
Where there was no pick up, was in Russian flows to Europe…
… and there certainly won’t be a pick up any time soon, as the average price for Russia’s Urals crude export blend soared 16.4% m/m to $64.37/bbl in July, the Finance Ministry said in a statement.
That price is far above the G-7 price cap for Russia’s oil, set at $60/bbl (see “In “Victory” For Moscow, Russia Defies Sanctions By Selling Oil Above Western Price Cap” for more). And while the July price of Urals was nearly 18% down y/y from $78.41/bbl in July 2022, it means that virtually all Urals supply is now verboten to western clients, who will be afraid of consequences should they violate the embargo.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Canadian Pastor Convicted Of Inciting Mischief In Trucker Protests Facing Up To 10 Years Prison
In 2005, he began serving and ministering to downtown Calgary—Alberta’s poor and downtrodden. “In other words, feeding the homeless and praying for them, which is now illegal,” he described to The Epoch Times in a telephone interview while under house arrest in Calgary following his court conviction in May for inciting mischief and violating his release conditions.
The police eventually showed up at Mr. Pawlowski’s church, telling him he couldn’t feed the homeless by law. Neither was he allowed to assemble or preach in public.
“They even have laws on the books that distributing printed materials—Bibles and Gospel tracts—is illegal. So I got tickets for that,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
He added that tensions with the authorities had reached the point where police showed up at his church weekly.
During the pandemic, he received 40 tickets for COVID-19 violations, including one for a Christmas celebration he said drew a response from over 100 police officers, 52 police vehicles, as well as anti-terrorism units.
Over 300 Citations
Between 2005 and 2015, Mr. Pawlowski said he received over 300 citations for refusing to stop preaching, feeding the homeless, and doing what he thought was helpful to those in need.
He was arrested and charged in 2006 for reading the Bible in public, and considers being the first Canadian to receive a COVID-19 ticket for feeding the homeless a badge of honor in what he’d say was righteous defiance.
Mr. Pawlowski, pastor of the Cave of Adullam ministry and founder of Street Church Ministries in Calgary, said he has also been granted some victories in the eyes of the law. He won significant court battles through Alberta’s provincial courts of appeal.
On Aug. 9, Mr. Pawlowski, a native of Poland and an acolyte of the “Solidarity Movement,” could receive up to 10 years in prison for the charge of “inciting mischief” during Canada’s nationwide trucker protests last year.
The protests rose in response to the public health rules of Canada’s Trudeau administration, sparking a massive “Freedom Convoy” from like-minded residents that threatened to bring the nation’s economy to a halt unless COVID-19 restrictions that were also impacting the economy and mental health were lifted.
Response to Government Overreach
As a Christian minister, Mr. Pawlowski said he believed he was waging a spiritual battle against “government overreach” during the pandemic, even if it means he has to pay fines, get arrested, or go to jail.
On Feb. 7, 2022, at the border crossing blockade in Coutts, Alberta, Mr. Pawlowski told a crowd of commercial truckers, “It’s about time for Canadians to rise up and start roaring.”
“For the first time in two years, you’ve got the power. They’ve got the guns, yes—it’s all useless when you all rise up. There is no tyrant big enough that can stop [the] masses.”
Canadian authorities arrested and charged him with inciting mischief and interfering with essential infrastructure under Alberta’s Critical Infrastructure Defense Act of 2020.
Mr. Pawlowski said Canadian authorities also accused him of promoting “genocide” for referencing the Solidarity Movement contributing to the fall of communism in Poland.
“Of course, if you listened to my service, you will know that I said no guns, no swords, just stand for God and human rights during my sermon three times,” he said of the accusation.
Mr. Pawlowski said he spent 50 days in prison, mostly in solitary confinement surrounded by concrete cells, before he was placed in maximum security and a psychiatric ward without evaluation.
“So, encouraging Canadians to stand for God and state human rights is a criminal act, a terrorism act,” said Mr. Pawlowski, who needs special permission to leave his house between 7 p.m. and 7 a.m. “Therefore I am guilty, and all of them are guilty, according to this judge.”
Months later, he is “still under house arrest in Calgary,” he said.
Belief on Trial
“I am the first Canadian where my sermon and speech were on trial. Everything was about what I said. The lawyers argued what I meant. It was a charade, a show trial—a joke,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
“I was not allowed to say a word as they debated what I said and what I meant. They couldn’t agree on the wording.”
Mr. Pawlowski said he is also the first Canadian citizen charged with eco-terrorism in the history of Canada.
“And now, the judge ruled I am the first Canadian ever to be found guilty of inciting mischief and eco-terrorism,” Mr. Pawlowski said. “The Canadian courts are upside down. I am a political prisoner. It has nothing to do with law and order,” he expressed.
An Alberta Crown Prosecution Service spokesman told The Epoch Times in an email that the agency has “no comment on this matter.”
Sarah Miller of JSS Barristers is currently representing Mr. Pawlowski in the case. She said she “currently cannot speak to media regarding this case while the sentencing is outstanding.”
However, Ms. Miller said she does not expect sentencing to occur on Aug. 9. Rather, the proceedings will “set the date for sentencing.”
“I hope to be able to speak publicly about this case in the future,” Ms. Miller added.
Son Expresses Cry for Help
The pastor’s son, Nathan Pawlowski, recently testified in the European Parliament about the “consequences of abuse of power under the guise of help” during the pandemic by the Canadian government.
“I am here today in desperation—a cry for help,” Nathan Pawlowski said by videolink from Canada. “I would like to tell you all the things about freedom and democracy that I like, but I no longer know those things.
“They have been taken away from us Canadians. Canada has fallen. We no longer have freedom of religion, freedom of speech, or the right to assemble, associate, or express ourselves, or have free media or disagree with the government.”
Nathan Pawlowski said his father could be imprisoned for up to a decade for his trucker sermon and referenced the Solidarity Movement.
“This case sets a precedent with all Canadians—and the world—if you allow this to happen,” he said.
He explained that his father was charged with preaching and reading the Bible publicly because the government had ruled that the Bible is “hateful and isn’t inclusive.”
“My father told the truckers to stand for their rights, Solidarity-style, and to do so peacefully.”
“If he goes down, we are all lost as Canadians. If a pastor goes to prison, what can they do to the rest of us?” the younger Pawlowski said.
‘Seen This Movie Before’
In a video recording played by his son, Mr. Pawlowski also addressed the European Parliament—as a political dissident “born behind the Iron Curtain of Poland, crushed by the iron fist of oppression” in Canada.
“Freedom is more than a word—it’s a measure of our humanity, courage, and determination. It’s a cost borne by soldiers, journalists, and volunteers,” he said.
Mr. Pawlowski told The Epoch Times he had received offers of money and government positions in exchange for his silence, but he’s “not for sale.”
“I have seen this movie before” under communism in Poland, he said. “It does not end well.”
END
NIGER/FRANCE
France Evacuating EU Citizens From Coup-Hit Niger, Escalation Looms
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 11:10 AM
European countries are initiating emergency evacuation plans for the their citizens currently in Niger, following last Friday’s coup events which saw the country’s military leadership declare President Mohamed Bazoum removed from power, overthrown by his own presidential guard.
“France is preparing the evacuation of its citizens and (other) European citizens who want to leave the country,” the French foreign ministry said in a statement, noting it will begin immediately. At least three other European countries have followed suit.
“Considering the ongoing coup in Niger and the fact that the situation continues to be worrying, we decided to make sure that the French citizens who want to leave Niger can do so,” French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told a national broadcaster.
Germany’s foreign ministry too noted that France has “offered, within the limits of available capacity, to take German nationals on board their flights from Niger”. The government is imploring for Germans to take that offer.
Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani has also announced a “special flight to Italy” to evacuate its nationals. Spain too is reportedly making emergency plans.
There are believed to be at least multiple hundreds still in Niger from these EU countries, likely with the most being French. A number of French companies, importantly French nuclear fuels company Orano, have plants in Niger.
Orano has said its operations are continuing, chiefly through its predominantly Nigerien workforce.
As for the Western troop presence in the country, which has long worked with Niger’s military on counterterror operations, Reuters has noted that “The United States, Germany, and Italy have troops in Niger on counter-insurgency and training missions. There has been no announcement of troops being evacuated so far.”
The security situation, particularly in the capital of Niamey, has continued to unravel particularly after over the weekend pro-coup demonstrators stormed at set fire to the French embassy. Reports then emerged that the overthrown government in exile was calling on France to intervene militarily.
Meanwhile, the European Union on Monday issued a scathing attack on the junta headed by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, while announcing new sanctions:
The EU said Monday it would hold Niger’s putschists responsible for all attacks on civilians, diplomatic personnel and embassies after pro-coup demonstrators rallied outside the embassy of former colonial ruler France.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement that the European Union will also “quickly and resolutely” apply the decision of the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to apply economic sanctions on Niger.
At this moment there remains the threat of Niger’s current turmoil spilling outside its borders and into a greater West Africa confrontation…
Washington has reportedly sought the intervention of Chad to mediate a restoration of the democratically elected government of Bazoum, but each day that passes makes that prospect more and more unlikely.
From the West’s perspective, looming large in the background is expanding Russian influence in Africa. Already there are hyped headlines claiming Putin is now eyeing extending his influence to Niger and across West Africa. Additionally, France is heavily dependent on uranium from Niger, with the coup government having declared the suspension of uranium and gold exports on Monday.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0971 DOWN 0.0026
USA/ YEN 143.41 DOWN 0.984 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2747 DOWN 0.0084
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3298 UP 0.0102 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 102 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.09 PTS OR 0.00%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 67.82 PTS OR 0.34%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.55 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 67.82 PTS OR 0.34%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.09 PTS OR 0.00%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 304.36 PTS OR 0.92%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1953.95
silver:$24,44
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.97 UP 35 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1486
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1496)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.95 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.561…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.968% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.022 UP 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 33.14 points or 0.43%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 206.43 PTS OR 1.26%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 91.70 PTS OR 1.22%
Spain IBEX DOWN 138.60 PTS OR 1.44%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 288.55 PTS OR 0.97%
WTI Oil price 81.18 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.85 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 92,33 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 23//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2,5265 UP 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4465 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0971 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2747 DOWN .0084 or 84 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4445 % UP 8 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .601%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.31 UP 0.985 //YEN DOWN 99 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3298 UP .0102 CDN dollar, DOWN 102 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.18
Brent OIL: 84.85
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS pts to 4.040%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.1010%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.895%
USA dollar index: 102.09 UP 46 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.97 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.33 DOWN 0 AND 33/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 71.15 PTS OR 0.20%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 38,99 PTS OR 0.25%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.90 UP 0.27 PTS (1.98)%
GLD: $10.46 DOWN 1.89 OR 1.04%
SLV/ $22.29 DOWN .40 OR 1.76%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Banks, Bonds, & Bullion Battered As Dollar Rips To Start August
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Yields surged higher today, despite dismal economic data, as supply (corporate and govt) dominated along with positive employment signals from the PMIs (although the JOLTs data was shitshow and should have trumped any positives from PMIs). The dollar also ripped higher… on a bad data day (to start the month) as PMIs were abysmal around the world (and non-USD fiat weakness means USD fiat strength).
Global Manufacturing PMIs and Global Stocks seem to be in disagreement…
Source: Bloomberg
“probably nothing…”
Equity markets were broadly under pressure today early on but the ubiquitous short-squeeze lifted them off the lows. The Dow ended higher
Another day, another short-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s now been 40 days since the S&P had a down 1% day…
Source: Bloomberg
And of course, bankrupt trucker Yellow was up over 150% today – hitting $5.00, its highest since Oct 2022 – massively higher from the 43c lows late-last week…
And WTF is this!!!!
Banks were dumped today…
Treasuries were clubbed like a baby seal during the European session and the selling pressure abated after Europe closed. The long-end notably underperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres offers 10 reasons why bond investors are so bearish today.
The US refunding projections for Wednesday are skewed higher after the Treasury increased borrowing estimates Monday
The technical break of 4% in 10s was meaningful and provided some momentum as yields retest recent highs ahead of the refunding announcement and Friday’s jobs report
Foreign real money sold 10-year futures contracts right out of the gates today in New York, while cash desks noted similar accounts exited longs in 5s
Relative-value accounts sold in both 5s and 20s against 2s
Financial-linked corporate bond issuance slowed today, lessening the need to receive in swaps
Month-end is out of the way — lessening the need for indexing demand
With the adjustment in duration, investors are preparing for for convexity sales. Dealer desks say it has yet to materialize but easily could
Pressure also seen in mortgage-backed securities, with hedge fund sales due to the shift in duration. Weakness in MBS can often lend to hedging flows in Treasuries. Dealers report the recent money manager bid looks a bit tired in MBS
Commodity Trading Advisors and speculative accounts remain short and are willing to let those winning trades ride — feeling no pressure to unwind
Liquidity is low, exaggerating price action
10Y yields topped 4.00% and 30Y yields ripped up to their highest since Nov 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) steepened notably today (less inverted)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended its rebound from mid-July’s plunge (retracing almost 70% of the drop)…
Source: Bloomberg
We also note that The Dollar Index is closing in fast on key technical levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin dumped and pumped back above $29k…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold tumbled back below $2000 today…
WTI hit $82 today, back at OPEC-Cut highs from April…
Finally, Mr.Biden may have a problem (well let’s be honest, this is but one of many)…
Source: Bloomberg
Retail gas prices are set to explode (and that won’t help the “inflation is defeated” narrative).
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//
II) USA DATA/
US Manufacturing Surveys Confirm Contraction; Employment Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 10:07 AM
It’s been a rough morning for Global Manufacturing PMIs – China, Turkey, Italy, France, Germany (shitshow), Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Brazil all printed below 50 (contracting).
So can USA, USA, USA buck the trend – besides we have something no other country has – “Bidenomics“!!!!!
US macro data has serially surprised to the upside in recent weeks, so expectations were for a rebound in US Manufacturing ‘soft’ survey data and S&P Global’s PMI printed 49.0 in July (still in contraction), unchanged from the flash print earlier in the month (but up from the 46.3 final print in June). ISM’s Manufacturing survey headline disappointed, printing 46.4 (46.9 exp) – still in contraction – but up marginally from the 46.0 June print. ISM hasn’t been above 50 since August 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
ISM’s Manufacturing survey showed Employment slowing at its fastest rate since COVID lockdowns. Prices and New Orders continue to contract…
“Manufacturing continues to act as a drag on the US economy, the recent spell of malaise persisting at the start of the third quarter. However, producers are clearly shrugging off recession fears and planning for better times ahead.
“The sector continued to suffer from lower demand, as a post-pandemic shift in spending from goods to services, and an ongoing trend of cost-focused inventory reduction, led to a further drop in orders.
“The overall rate of order book decline nevertheless moderated during the month, helped by a slower decline in exports, to help stabilize production. “
There are some silver-linings for those desperate to find something bullish ‘soft-landing’-y to cling to…
“There were several other encouraging bright spots in the survey, most notably including a marked improvement in business expectations for output in the year ahead. Firms are therefore anticipating the current soft patch to soon pass, and importantly are hiring more staff as a result.
“There was also good news on the inflation front. The combination of weak demand and improved supply led to a further “buyers’ market” for many goods. Prices charged for goods consequently barely rose for a third straight month, which should help subdue consumer price inflation in the near term.”
Still, not exactly the exuberant economy that ‘Bidenomics’ promised.
end
Economy seems to be collapsing: job openings drop to 2 yr lows
(zerohedge)
Wheels Come Off The “Strong Jobs” Myth: Job Openings Drop To 2 year Low As Number Of Hires And Quits Plunge
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 10:38 AM
For those enthralled by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of well-paid, middle-management employees are replaced by a cheap “bullshitting” AI algo, then today’s latest JOLTS report may come as a bigger shock than the big drop in job openings from one month ago. That’s because after unexpectedly dumping by 496K in May (a number which has been revised far worse of course), the BLS just reported that in June the number of job openings was practically unchanged, dropping by just 34K, to 9.582MM from a downward revised 9.616 million. And while the monthly change was modest after the downward revision of course, the total was dragged to the lowest level since April 2021.
The number was about 1.4 million below the 11 million from a year ago and below the consensus estimate of 9.6 million, a rare miss in a series which has been best known for decisively beating Wall Street’s expectations.
According to the BLS, the largest increases in job openings was in health care and social assistance (+136,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+62,000). Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-78,000), state and local government education (-29,000), and federal government (-21,000)
The slide in the number of job openings meant that after rising to the highest since January 2023 in April, in June the number of job openings was just 3.7625 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the lowest since Sept 2021.
Said otherwise, after rising to 1.82 openings for every worker in April, in June the number dropped to just 1.61, which would have been the lowest level since Oct 2021 if it weren’t for last month’s sharp downward revision.
Yet even as the number of job openings dropped only modestly from the (sharply) downward revised print for May (because under Biden, no number is ever revised stronger), conflicting data remained and in June, the number of people quitting their jobs – an indicator traditionally associated with labor market strength as it shows workers are confident they can find a better wage elsewhere – unexpectedly tumbled by 295K to just 3.772MM, the biggest monthly drop since May 2021.
According to the BLS, the number of quits decreased in several industries, with the largest decreases in retail trade (-95,000), health care and social assistance (-75,000), and construction (-51,000). The number of quits increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+20,000).
And just in case some still believe Biden’s strong jobs lie, the number of hires also tumbled in June, crashing by 326K – the biggest monthly drop since July 2020…
… to 5.905MM, the lowest since February 2021.
Of course, as we have explained on multiple occasions previously, none of the above data actually matters or is credible for the simple reason that the response rate of the JOLTS survey is stuck at a record low 31.2%. Which means that only those who actually have job openings to report do so, while two-thirds of employers are either non-responsive or their mail is quietly lost in the mail.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Victor Davis Hanson: The Biden Presidency Is Unsustainable
Imagine if Gavin Newsom was currently Vice President amid the final meltdown of the Biden family consortium.
Does anyone doubt that Biden would then either be forced to resign by Democratic politicos (for reasons in addition to his escalating dementia), or would be impeached and perhaps abdicate Nixon-style?
The presence of the now predictable mediocrity of Kamala Harris and the impossibility, given her race and gender, of removing her, for now is about all that keeps a cognitively declining Biden still in office. The Left fears what she could do as president to the Democratic Party; conservatives are terrified of what she could do to the country.
Joe Biden’s bewilderment exempts his embarrassments from accountability in the way that Hunter Biden’s addictions excuse his past serial criminality. But the passes granted to both father and son would be now unsustainable with a viable Vice President in waiting.
Indeed, the Harris problem explains some of current Democratic strategy.
Backroom leaks and growing insider rumors of Biden dementia confirm the portrait of an often befuddled president whom the public by now knows all too well.
The aimless House Democrats’ “how-dare-you-even-consider-an-impeachment inquiry” furor, coupled with their half-hearted efforts, along with the media, to refute the actual charges of corruption of the Biden family, suggest that he will not run for reelection—but also not be impeached much less convicted or removed under the 25th Amendment.
So the Harris dilemma explains a lot: finding a way to keep her out of current power until Biden somehow finishes his first term, and thus letting the Democratic 2024 primary candidates organically abort her presidential aspirations.
There are a few problems, however, with this strategy.
One, can Joe Biden finish his first term?
That would require his staff to shorten his already truncated workday for the next 18 months to about 2-3 hours of work per day.
He would have to be kept away from photo-ops with young (especially female) children, lest he turkey-gobbles the cheek of another victim to a worldwide audience.
He can no longer read off a teleprompter without slurring his words, losing his place, or going off extemporaneously on to topics such as “Vladimir” Zelenskyy, the “Iraq” war in Ukraine, or relief over the curing of cancer.
He cannot hold half-hour press conferences given his incoherence and his angry prevarications. He still insists incredulously that he never discussed the Biden family business with Hunter, although we may soon see transcripts, recordings, and affidavits that he was in fact intimately involved in and profited from it.
The Strange Case of Hunter in the White House
Hunter is toxic and capable of leaving behind incriminating evidence or engaging in surreal behavior anywhere and anytime. Why would a former crack cocaine addict be brought into the White House, after which a bag of cocaine was for the first time in presidential history found abandoned in the West Wing?
(Partial answer: why and how would an addict leave an incriminating crackpipe in a rental car, simply abandon a laptop at a repair shop with evidence of his own felonious behavior on it, or allow his illegally registered handgun to turn up in a dumpster near a school)?
An outside, disinterested observer who read the contents of the laptop and Hunter’s wounded-fawn protestations about his unappreciated role in enriching his father and uncle, or digested his unhinged recent career as a quid-pro-quo, paint-by-the-numbers artiste, selling high-priced junk in exchange for presidential flavors, would conclude that the Bidens are apprehensive of the unpredictable Hunter. Keep your friends close, but your explosive son even closer.
Of course, they fear Hunter’s recklessness, addictions, and greed—but more perhaps his ability to take down the entire Biden clan should they distance themselves too far from him or leak that the family’s corrupt schemes were birthed by the fall-guy Hunter alone.
Aside from Joe’s cognitive decline and Hunter’s volatility, no one believes anymore Joe Biden’s patent lies that he never discussed with Hunter his lucrative grifting career. Already, the untruth has transmogrified into he never did business with Hunter—and soon perhaps he never profited from the business he did and discussed with Hunter.
No matter, by year’s end there will be witnesses and hard data showing that Joe himself discussed pay-for-play schemes with foreign entities, of the sort he long ago boasted with previous impunity before a Council of Foreign Relations event.
This is no Whitewater, Trooper-gate, or Stormy Daniels scandal, but bribery of the sort explicitly outlined by the Constitution for removal from office: “The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
Selling influence to foreign-government related enterprises is, of course, not just bribery but perhaps treason as well. And it involves other “high Crimes and Misdemeanors,” among them tax fraud on unreported foreign income.
Moreover, it is arguable that the Biden shake-down consortium has altered the very nature of U.S. foreign policy. We will never know the full effect of the false Russian disinformation/laptop narrative, following the fake Russian collusion hoax, on Kremlin thinking. Nor can we explain why Joe Biden once urged Putin to lay off hacking humanitarian U.S. targets, or suggested that a minor invasion of Ukraine would not elicit a U.S. response, or offered to airlift Zelenskyy out of Kyiv in the first days of the war.
Nor can we explain why China was never held accountable by Biden after new information entailed the role of the Wuhan lab in birthing the Covid virus, or for sending a spy balloon across the continental U.S. with impunity. Meanwhile, the administration’s crazy talk of partnering with a supposedly non-bellicose China seems unhinged.
Finally, given the first Trump impeachment, what is the Left now going to say to House Republicans—“You cannot in this country impeach a president merely for threatening to cancel foreign aid unless Ukraine fired a prosecutor looking into his high-ranking family’s illegal influence selling?”
Equality Under the Law?
The Democrats in their Trump derangement fits so lowered the bar for impeachment and special prosecutions, that not impeaching or removing Biden under the Left’s own new standards seems almost ridiculous.
If Trump earned hysteria about 25th-amendment removal (to the point of taking and acing the Montreal Cognitive Assessment) for a halting gait on an occasion descending a ramp, how could a non-compos-mentis and chronically falling Biden not be so examined?
Moreover, Trump was impeached for 1) asking a foreign leader to examine the corruption of the Biden family with Ukraine while he put a hold on approved foreign aid to Ukraine; 2) and at the time, it was possible that Joe Biden could have been Trump’s likely future 2020 opponent.
But in contrast note that Biden 1) issued an ultimatum that a Ukraine prosecutor would either be summarily fired, or aid would be ended. And he was fired!; and 2) Biden was only a possible general-election presidential rival when Trump called Zelensky; Trump is currently the front-runner against a putative Biden candidacy in 2024.
Biden has also done far more than ask Ukraine to ensure a political opponent was not guilty of corruption, but rather sicced a special DOJ prosecutor on Trump for taking out classified papers in the manner that Joe Biden himself did years earlier, without the prerogative as a senator or vice president of declassifying such papers.
Harris Paradoxes
The open disregard for Kamala Harris is not just a Republican phenomenon. Her dismal popularity reflects that such disappointment in her is bipartisan. And now the likely machinations mentioned to keep her out of the presidency are undoing all the racial and gender pandering that explain her otherwise inexplicable appointment in the first place. At some point the Democratic identity-politics base is going to pressure the party’s hierarchy to back off and back Harris or face charges of racism.
In an odd way, the Left’s tolerance of Biden’s own cognitive impairment also strengthens Harris’s case, especially among her diversity base. Kamala utters incomprehensible sentences; Joe cannot finish them. Kamala’s public declamations are kindergarten stuff; Joe’s are more nursery school level. In theory, Kamala can be coached and improve; Joe’s declines are at a geometric rate that is irreversible.
So if someone so cognitively challenged is currently President with the full assent of the Democratic Party, for what reasons does it turn its animus on a Vice President who is still relatively young and hale?
How odd that the Left knows that both the current President and Vice President should not be in either job after 2024; and yet its own prior pandering and rank politicking have made both almost impossible to remove. And how odder that the extra-legal measures the Left took to emasculate the Trump presidency are now the low standards by which an utterly corrupt Biden can be investigated, indicted, impeached, or forced to resign.
end
US Government Debt Spikes by $1.2 trillion since Debt Ceiling, to $32.7 Trillion. Treasury to Add $1.5 Trillion in Debt by Year-End
To set the scene for what’s to come in a moment: The total US national debt spiked by $1.19 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted, to $32.66 trillion.
And to set the scene further: This $32.66 trillion of debt is composed of two groups of Treasury securities:
$6.9 trillion of nonmarketable (not traded in the market) Treasury securities that have been bought by US government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc.;
$25.7 trillion in marketable securities (Treasury securities held and traded by the global public, from regular folks to central banks, including the Fed).
Marketable securities outstanding have spiked by $1.05 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted on June 2, a huge amount of issuance in two months.
And in a moment, we’ll get into how much more will be issued for the remainder of the year: Another $1.5 trillion (as indicated by the green line and technical term for this phenomenon), according to the jacked-up projections released today by the Treasury Department:
Today’s debt-issuance shocker for the 2nd half.
The Treasury Department today jacked up its borrowing plans to deal with the lower-than-previously-expected revenues and the higher-than-previously-expected outlays, as the deficit keeps careening out of all control.
For the current quarter: $1.01 trillion in additional debt. This July through September quarter has only two months left, Treasury jacked up its borrowing plans by $274 billion, to total borrowing in the quarter of $1.01 trillion, up from the $733 billion it had imagined in May, according to its announcement today.
In other words, the government will issue over $1 trillion in marketable securities this quarter that the market has to buy this quarter, in addition to refinancing maturing securities.
Last time the government issued securities at this pace and faster was in 2020, but back then, the Fed was buying Treasuries hand over fist, including $3 trillion in March through May 2020. Now the Fed is shedding Treasuries at a pace of about $60 billion a month.
Markets not only have to digest the new issuance but also pick up the $60 billion a month that the Fed is walking away from.
The Treasury Department cited three main reasons for this $274 billion increase to this monster $1.01 trillion in new issuance this quarter:
It raised by $50 billion the balance it wants to have in its checking account, the Treasury General Account (TGA), by the end of September, to $650 billion, from $600 billion as planned in May.
It started out the quarter with $148 billion less in the TGA than projected in May. So it was behind before the quarter even started.
It now projects “lower receipts and higher outlays” than imagined in May, requiring an additional $83 billion new debt to cover this additional deficit.
For the next quarter: $852 billion in new borrowing. In the October through December quarter, Treasury expects to borrow an additional $852 billion, to end with a cash balance in its TGA of $750 billion.
The way things are going, with these big upward revisions of borrowing estimates, along with the less than projected receipts and more than expected outlays, we can expect an upward revision of this $852 billion by the next update.
Total new borrowing in the second half: $1.85 trillion. In July – the first month of the second half – the government already borrowed nearly $300 billion. So for the five months from now through the end of December, the government projects to issue $1.56 trillion in new debt. Some of it to refill the TGA to $750 billion (from $550 billion now), and the rest of it cover the budget deficit.
Bon appétit, investors!
This is a huge amount of supply of Treasury securities coming to the market, on top of the $60 billion a month in maturing securities that the Fed is walking away from, and as they’re refinanced, the market has to pick them up too.
Yield solves all demand problems. That’s what yield is for, and it’s a good thing, we know that. You can sell even the riskiest junk bonds if the yield is high enough. So there will be buyers, but the yields will have to be high enough to attract them.
So far, the government has only increased its issuance of Treasury bills (securities of one year or less) and Cash Management Bills – a veritable flood of CMBs.
CMBs are the most flexible securities for the government. They are sold at auctions on short notice and outside the normal auction schedule. Their balance is not included in the above charted $32.66 trillion in national debt. CMBs can have peculiar terms, from one day on up to several months. For example, on July 27, Treasury announced that it will offer $50 billion in 42-day CMBs at an auction on August 1.
Even though CMBs are not included in the balance of the US national debt, they will still have to be absorbed by investors and are part of what investors have to buy.
The longer-term securities are coming. On Wednesday, Treasury is expected to announce a substantial increase in the issuance of longer-term securities – Treasury notes of 2 to 10 years and bonds of 20 and 30 years – most likely through increases of the sizes of its regular auctions.
This increased supply of longer-term securities will have to attract enough buyers with a yield that is high enough. Currently, Treasury bills are paying somewhere near 5.5%. But the 10-year yield is only around 4%. So this will be interesting.
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California reparations plans are moving forward, with separate proposals under consideration by the state Legislature and the city of San Francisco, but critics including a former San Francisco supervisor are raising alarms that the recommendations exceed budgetary limitations.
Established in May 2021 with the passage of Assembly Bill 3121, the California Reparations Task Force submitted its final recommendations to the Legislature on June 29, in the form of a 1,100-page report issuing guidance for apologies and calculations for determining cash payments.
Also, San Francisco’s African American Reparations Advisory Committee issued their final report (pdf) July 7 with a lengthy list of recommendations including a $5 million lump sum payment to each eligible person and additional $97,000—adjusted to median income—each per year for the next 250 years; home, renters, and commercial insurance paid by the city; selling condominiums for $1 to eligible residents; and tax abatement on sales tax for the next 250 years.
“I have never seen a more insidious, inane, exploitative, and cruel plan put forth to the American public,” Mr. Hall said. “In San Francisco, you’re asking non-slave owners to pay $5 million to people that were never slaves. The average household is going to have to pay about $600,000.”
The number only grows once factoring in the additional economic empowerment recommendations presented by the city’s advisory committee, he said.
“That’s not counting the $97,000 every year for the rest of their lives. That’s not counting the free education. That’s not counting the forgiveness of all debts. That’s not counting the right for them to buy a house in San Francisco for a dollar,” Mr. Hall said during the 30-minute-long interview. “It’s a joke.”
It is estimated that the recommendations would cost the city approximately $175 billion in the first year, and with an annual budget of nearly $14 billion, critics say the plan is indisputably unaffordable.
“This is a lot of unrealistic, pie in the sky promises,” Mr. Hall said. “It’s stuff that could never happen, and these people on the task committees know this.”
The state’s reparations committee outlined 115 recommendations across 13 categories in the weighty report it presented to lawmakers, but no specific dollar amounts were given for expected costs.
Experts say payments could equal up to $1.4 million for each qualifying applicant and costs to taxpayers could exceed $800 billion, while the state’s budget for the next fiscal year totals $312 billion.
“We’re looking at something that’s potentially twice as big of the budget. What happens if we’re forced to pay that out?” Mr. Hall said. “In the first year we’d do away with California, and you’re doing away with the goose that lays the golden egg. There will be no money left to pay for services, roads, policing, nothing.”
Critics of the plans say the fiscal impossibility of the proposals suggests they will not be approved.
“There’s no way you could pay the reparations they’re asking for and keep the country intact,” Mr. Hall told California Insider. “It’s a dream. It’s not going to happen.”
Therein lies a dilemma that could lead to social unrest, as millions of people are under the impression that they will receive some kind of handout, according to experts.
“You cannot promise something you can’t deliver. That’s wrong. That’s lying to people,” Mr. Hall said. “A lot of the poor black people are being misled; they’re being misguided. They’re going to revolt. They’re going to be upset.”
The legality of the proposals is also in question, with legal experts saying the laws would face intense judicial scrutiny at state and federal levels that could delay or prevent any payments from occurring.
Opponents argue the plans enable discrimination and should be subject to the same review as all other proposed laws.
“Something as stupid as color of skin has people arguing,” Mr. Hall said. “Nobody should be given preferential treatment because of the color of their skin. That’s discrimination. That’s exploitation.”
end
Devon Archer Spills The Beans: Tells Congress About Shady Burisma Dealings, Joe Biden’s “More Than 20” Conversations
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Hunter Biden’s former business partner Devon Archer has spilled the beans to Congress, telling lawmakers in a closed-door session that Burisma Holdings pressured Hunter Biden in December 2015 to ‘deal with’ a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the firm for corruption – shortly before then-VP Joe Biden threatened Ukraine with a quid-pro-quo over US aid in exchange for firing said prosecutor.
According to Just the News, Archer also told the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that Hunter Biden was hired to sit on the board of Burisma because his family’s “brand” had value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations from not only Ukraine’s own prosecutor general’s office, but the US and Great Britain as well.
“Devon Archer testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was ‘the brand’ and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to ‘the brand,'” an anonymous source told JTN. “Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for ‘the brand.”
Selling the brand
Archer also contradicted Joe Biden’s claims that he had never met with Hunter Biden’s foreign business associates – telling the committee that Joe Biden had gotten on speakerphone over 20 times with his son’s business clients – not to engage in specific business, but he “was put on the phone to sell ‘the brand.'”
The former business partner at the Rosemont Seneca firm, who was convicted in 2018 in a tribal bond fraud scheme, also told lawmakers that Hunter Biden was pressured in late 2015 to help deal with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin’s corruption investigation as Joe Biden was preparing to travel to Ukraine. -JTN
“In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin,” the source told JTN. “Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, ‘called D.C.’ to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call.”
A few days after that meeting, Joe Biden visited Ukraine as vice president and began an effort to force Ukraine’s president to fire Shokin, eventually threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if the termination did not happen. Biden’s defenders have long maintained the firing was not related to Burisma and was a result of U.S. policy because the Obama administration felt Shokin was corrupt.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed JTN‘s source, telling the Daily Caller: “The biggest significant thing that has come out so far is that we now have proof that Joe Biden lied. He’s been telling everyone for years now that he knows nothing about Hunter Biden’s business deals, that he’s never talked to his son about it. Well, this morning Devon Archer confirmed for all of us that that is not true.”
“He told us in his transcribed interview that he heard Hunter Biden speak to Joe Biden more than 20 times about their business deals. Not about anything else, but about the business deals,” she added.
Meanwhile, trust fund Democrat Dan Goldman (Schiff Jr.) continues to run cover…
And Democrats are of course starting to cry foul at the rules they themselves made during the Trump years…
END
Joe Biden Met With Moscow Mayor’s Wife Before $3.5 Million Wire To Hunter: Devon Archer
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 09:20 PM
While former Hunter Biden business partner Devon Archer spills the beans about Burisma, Joe, and the Biden family dealings, the Daily Mail revealed on Monday that Hunter Biden’s real estate firm received a $40 million investment from a Russian oligarch, Yelena Baturina, the billionaire widow of the former mayor of Moscow.
Baturina also wired $3.5 million to a Hunter-linked company, in what her brother, Viktor Baturin, tells the Daily Mail was “a payment to enter the American market.”
And which, as Devon Archer testified on Monday, kept her off the sanctions list.
DailyMail.com can now reveal that Hunter’s financial relationship with Baturina was far more extensive, with her firm investing $40million in a real estate venture by Hunter’s company Rosemont Realty.
In 2012 Hunter’s firm had a $69.7million plan to invest in 2.15million sq ft of office space in seven US cities.
Documents outlining the plan said the money came from a mix of investors, including $40million from Inteco Management AG, a Swiss company owned by Baturina.
The Inteco group is a plastics and construction behemoth that made Baturina the richest woman in Russia at the time. She has a current net worth of $1.4billion according to Forbes. -Daily Mail
Baturina wired the $3.5 million on February 14, 2014, when Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States. The wires were made in a series of payments to Rosemont Seneca Thornton LLC, for “Consultancy Agreement DD12.02.2014.”
The deal had been negotiated in 2012. In 2016, Baturina established a US office to oversee her US investments, and in 2016 she invested $10 million in commercial buildings near the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The payments were flagged in suspicious activity reports filed with the US Treasury Department.
Hunter’s lawyer, George Mesires (not the bong guy) has previously denied that the money went to Hunter.
“Hunter Biden had no interest in and was not a co-founder of Rosemont Seneca Thornton, so the claim that he was paid $3.5 million is false,” he told CNN in September 2020.
The emails came to the Daily Mail via the anti-corruption group, the Kazakhstani Initiative on Asset Recovery.
Now, we find from Devon Archer that Joe Biden met with Baturina in Georgetown before the $40 million investment, after which she was left off the Biden administration’s sanctions list.
And your daily reminder that Trump was impeached for simply asking about shady Biden family dealings.
END
Deception By Redaction: More FBI FISA Abuses, This Time Using Fake News In The Washington Post
The FBI’s efforts to mislead a federal court in order to wiretap an adviser to the Trump campaign were more extensive than previously reported, according to classified documents described to RealClearInvestigations.
FBI Director Christopher Wray just last month told Congress he has instituted reforms in response to FISA surveillance abuses, yet at the same time he appears to have tried to hide the full extent of those abuses under redactions.
The embattled bureau tried to hide its misconduct by redacting information about its actions under the guise that it involved sensitive intelligence information. RCI has learned that at least some of the redacted material, included in a “Classified Appendix” to Special Counsel John Durham’s final report, has nothing to do with protecting “sources and methods” and other “sensitive” investigative techniques.
Instead, it covers up additional improper behavior by the FBI brass, which initiated and signed off on all four of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act applications to spy on former Trump adviser Carter Page and his contacts within the Trump campaign and presidency in 2016 and 2017.
For example, the FBI tried to justify continuing to spy on Page in early 2017 by indicating to the secret FISA court that it had verified a rumor about Page receiving dirt on Hillary Clinton from the Russian government and facilitating a “well-developed conspiracy of cooperation” with the Kremlin to swing the 2016 election in Trump’s favor. But the bureau had corroborated no such thing. Its source was a front-page report in the Washington Post – one the newspaper later retracted after determining it was false, according to two former U.S. officials who have seen the original, unredacted FISA applications and described the passages to RCI.
The embarrassing revelation hasn’t been previously reported thanks to redactions blacking out references to the Washington Post article in the still-partially classified applications. The officials confirmed to RCI that the censored section covers up the FBI’s reliance on the bogus Post story, published in March 2017, as purported evidence supporting probable cause to continue spying on Trump’s former aide. In the sections of the FISA renewal applications blacking out references to the Post, the officials said, the FBI claimed the underlying text was “sensitive information.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss still-classified sections of the FISA warrant affidavits.
The FBI’s references to the Post story are contained in the April and June 2017 FISA applications. These applications were so tainted by bad information, politics, and glaring exculpatory omissions that after an inspector general’s probe, the Justice Department years later had to secretly concede to a federal surveillance court that they were “insufficient” to establish probable cause to spy on Page and therefore “were not valid”
FBI Director Christopher Wray recently told Congress he has instituted a number of reforms in response to the FISA surveillance abuses, yet at the same time, he appears to have tried to hide the full extent of those abuses under redactions.
An FBI spokeswoman said, “We decline comment on this matter.” Attempts to reach Durham, who has closed his office looking into FBI malfeasance, were unsuccessful.
This is not the only instance in which the FBI misrepresented unconfirmed news reports to secure authorization to spy on the Trump campaign. The bureau’s FISA applications also referenced a September 2016 Yahoo News account to substantiate the false claim that Page had met with Kremlin officials in Moscow during the presidential campaign.
That Yahoo article by Michael Isikoff said the allegations had been confirmed by a “well-placed Western intelligence source.” Isikoff later revealed that the source, former British intelligence agent Christopher Steele, had concocted the false allegation about Page in a series of now-debunked memos financed by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Hence, Steele was “corroborating” his own shoddy work. Instead of following the law and verifying this material before including it in the FISA application, the FBI simply repeated it as fact. In 2018, Isikoff said it was “a bit beyond me” why the bureau referenced his article.
The officials who spoke to RCI said the inclusion of the since-retracted Post story may be even more egregious because it was unsourced, which should have sent red flags flying at the FBI. Post reporters said a key source of the dossier’s allegations was a Belarusian-American businessman named Sergei Millian. The Post, however, provided no source for this blockbuster claim, which Millian vociferously denied.
The FBI’s reliance on the false Post story was “an act of desperation,” noted one of the officials. In late March 2017, he said the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane team investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia faced a dilemma. A court deadline to reapply for a warrant to spy on Page was fast approaching, and it still hadn’t verified the sourcing for the key “conspiracy” charge against him and the Trump campaign.
Moreover, agents had reason to be skeptical about the information, which formed the cornerstone of their case.
Over the previous two months, the FBI had conducted a series of interviews with Igor Danchenko, a Russia-born Washington-based researcher who helped compile Steele’s dossier of derogatory information about Trump’s alleged ties to Russia, including the core “conspiracy” assertion. During the debriefings, Danchenko confessed he couldn’t be sure his alleged source, Millian, actually told him what he attributed to him about Page in the dossier.
The FBI needed the explosive allegation to be true because it was the heart of the factual information supporting probable cause to electronically monitor Page as a supposed Russian collaborator under the authority of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The FISA law, initially enacted in 1978 and broadened in the aftermath of 9/11, is now under intense scrutiny on Capitol Hill in light of previously exposed FBI abuses of the congressionally granted surveillance power. The bureau included the information in earlier requests for wiretaps, but they were set to expire in early April 2017. To justify renewing them another 90 days, the FBI was under pressure to show FISA judges additional evidence to support its suspicions about Page. Validating Millian as the main source of the dossier was critical, but the agents had come up empty, developing no evidence that corroborated the allegations.
Just in time, the Washington Post published a story online on March 29, 2017, that supposedly “confirmed” Millian was the source of the allegations against Page and the core claim of a Trump-Kremlin conspiracy. The strangely unsourced article carried the headline, “Who is ‘Source D’? The man said to be behind the Trump-Russia dossier’s most salacious claim: The story of Sergei Millian.” The next day, the Post ran the same story on Page One of the paper, but under the headline: “Insider or opportunist? A wild card in Russia story: Businessman said to be source of spy dossier’s salacious claim about Trump.” The above-the-fold article appeared just eight days prior to the April 7 deadline the FBI faced to resubmit an application to the FISA court for a fresh warrant to secretly monitor Page.
In its April 7 affidavit requesting a renewal of the warrant, FBI headquarters advised the FISA court that the Post had confirmed that Millian was the source for the dossier’s allegation that the Kremlin was “feeding” the Trump campaign “very helpful” dirt on Clinton through Page. It also cited the article to buttress the dossier’s linchpin allegation of a “conspiracy of cooperation” between the Trump campaign and the Russian leadership, according to the two officials who have seen what is behind the blacked-out section of the sworn affidavit, which runs more than 100 pages. The references to the Post appear on page 22 of the FISA document.
As a result, the FISA court renewed the wiretaps. It approved them again on June 29, 2017, based in part on the same supposedly corroborative Washington Post article, according to the two officials, who have also seen the original, unredacted June application. On the strength of essentially fake news, surveillance court judges permitted the FBI to continue to vacuum up all of Page’s communications through Sept. 22, 2017.
The Post was forced to retract its story in November 2021 when Durham proved in a court filing that Danchenko had never actually spoken to Millian and simply invented him as his source — and therefore made up the “conspiracy” allegation and everything else he attributed to Millian. A week after Durham debunked the Millian hoax, Washington Post Executive Editor Sally Buzbee said the Post could no longer stand behind the accuracy of the story and ordered the newspaper to print a retraction.
But in 2017, the story served the FBI’s purposes, even as agents came to doubt the Millian sourcing because of Danchenko’s dissembling (yet, agents nonetheless swore to the FISA court that Danchenko had been “truthful and cooperative”). Headquarters had to hang on to the slim chance it could be true because the Millian-sourced allegations were central to their case for spying on the Trump campaign. Without them, the case would have collapsed. Former FBI officials say it’s highly unlikely the bureau would have been able to convince the spy court to continue to grant permission to monitor Page.
The FBI also relied on other allegations sourced to Millian as both “Source E” and “Source D” in the Steele dossier, including the made-up story that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a compromising sex tape of Trump cavorting with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel. The entire dossier turned out to be a series of invented rumors or outright fabrications that the FBI knew at the time were underwritten by the Hillary Clinton campaign as political opposition research.
FBI veterans who have sworn out affidavits for FISA wiretaps told RCI they have never known the bureau to cite media stories as evidence to corroborate leads or support probable cause to obtain such all-invasive warrants from the spy court.
“Absolutely not,” said former assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker. “I signed scores of FISA orders as they moved up the chain of command from the field office up to headquarters for final approval. None of them included that type of information, which is absolutely malpractice and incompetence, or worse.”
“Never, ever, ever,” added 27-year FBI veteran special agent Michael Biasello. “The FISA verification process known as the Woods Procedures was created to eliminate this problem, but [then-FBI Director James] Comey’s hand-picked bunch at headquarters did not follow them. They were a bunch of arrogant investigators relying on erroneous and tainted information from Washington reporters rather than a traditional, responsible investigation gathering the facts.”
Biasello said resorting to using such a murky newspaper story to backstop the main thrust of the FBI’s surveillance case suggests its case was more of a political fishing expedition than a legitimate national security matter. He added that the FBI and DOJ are now trying to cover up the full breadth of their FISA scandal through unjustified redactions and classifications.
The FBI and DOJ refuse to fully declassify the documents, which Senate Republicans managed to release to the public in 2020, albeit with large sections blacked out. Whole pages of the renewal applications remain secret, even though the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court invalidated the warrants in the wake of a scathing 2019 inspector’s general report. The IG found the spy warrants were based on allegations fabricated by Clinton-funded researchers and had omitted exculpatory information proving the innocence of Page, a former U.S. Navy lieutenant, whom the FBI knew was working for U.S., not Russian, intelligence.
Special Counsel Durham did not uncover what’s lurking beneath the FISA redactions in a recently released report of his four-year criminal investigation of FBI misconduct in the Russiagate probe. He explained that because of the “sensitive and classified nature” of certain “portions” of the FISA applications, he was compelled to discuss them only in a Classified Appendix to the report. He said the classification effort was “coordinated” with the FBI.
In other words, much of the FBI’s wrongdoing remains shielded from public view.
Unusual Handling by Washington Post
The way the Post corrected its story was highly unusual.
Instead of appending a correction, the paper, which won a Pulitzer Prize for its Trump-Russia reporting, removed all references to Millian as the dossier’s source in online and archived versions of the original article, including all citations cataloged in the Lexis-Nexis database of news articles. It also took down a video that accompanied the story. The paper then reposted a new article with a different headline – “Sergei Millian: High-level access to Trump or unwitting bystander?” – but under the same bylines of Tom Hamburger and Rosalind Helderman, who shared the controversial 2018 Pulitzer (although the Millian article was not part of its entry).
The new version of the story contains an “Editor’s Note” noting the date when the original was published, but oddly, it does not link to it. In a story the Post ran reporting on its “unusual step of correcting and removing large portions” of the article, it also failed to link to the original version of the article and only linked to the retooled one. The original version has been scrubbed from Google and Twitter.
Journalism historians say they are not aware of another major newspaper making wholesale changes to a story four years afterward and republishing an edited version of the story.
In a statement to RCI, a spokeswoman for the Post shrugged off criticism. “The Post handled this correction with complete transparency,” said Kathy Baird, the paper’s chief communications officer. “As you can see in the Editor’s Note, portions of the story and an accompanying video were removed and the headline was changed,” she added. “This is consistent with the principles and practices we follow when issuing corrections for our readers so that all published information is up-to-date and accurate.”
Another curious aspect of the story is how it got through Post editors without any sourcing or attribution. Normally such a sensitive story, which potentially libeled Millian, would require intense scrutiny, if not a legal review.
Millian shared emails with RCI showing he tried to steer the Post reporters off the story, insisting it was “a vicious lie” and a smear campaign against him and the incoming Republican president. But the newspaper nonetheless reported he was the source for the most explosive parts of the dossier and never printed his rebuttals at length after reaching out to him by email. The Post did note that Millian denied in a Russian TV interview having “any compromising information” about Trump, and that Trump aides “vehemently” rejected claims Millian had close ties to Trump. (The Post’s description ‒ “vehemently” ‒ appears in the FBI’s application, the two officials told RCI, but the word is hidden under a redaction, the only word blacked out in the sentence. There is no explanation provided for censoring “vehemently” in the document, but the officials posit the FBI was worried it would too easily connect to the Post story if left unredacted.)
“The liberal press never printed my statements,” Millian said. “They all just went along with Steele’s lies.” After the Post story ran, Millian said he demanded retractions from the paper, arguing its article was “reckless” and “defamatory,” but the Post refused to retract it or run a correction or clarification until November 2021, when Durham exposed the lies in an indictment.
After I demanded the Washington Post to retract, they informed me that they believe their source and will not delete the story,” he added. “I asked who is their source? They did not answer who.”
Whoever it was, the Post had great faith in it and felt confident enough in its authority to run a story without citing any sources to back up its supposed scoop that Millian was behind the most explosive claims in the dossier.
Did it come from the FBI or officials working with the FBI? Again, the Post and FBI are mum. “We do not disclose information on our sources,” the Post’s Baird said. However, the Post was talking to federal investigators at the time.
On April 11, 2017, just four days after the FISA warrant was re-approved, the Post broke the story about the FBI surveilling Page under the headline, “FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor former Trump adviser Carter Page,” and attributed the story to “law enforcement and other U.S. officials.” It added: “This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump associate was in touch with Russian agents,” helping the FBI justify its unprecedented investigation of the Trump campaign.
Current FBI Director Wray has said the bureau “regrets the errors and omissions” in the FISA applications, and he has promised to reform how agents seek such warrants under the spy program. In the meantime, Wray has been lobbying Congress to renew FISA authority before it expires at the end of the year, arguing it’s a critical tool for protecting Americans from foreign terrorists and spies.
Comey: Applications ‘as Thick as My Wrist’
But critics on the Hill warn the FBI is also using the tool for political purposes.
Lawmakers note the FBI knew it was highly unlikely that Page could be a threat to national security because he had previously helped its counterintelligence agents capture and imprison a real spy from Russia. Page even helped the CIA monitor Russia. The FBI withheld from the court Page’s history of cooperating with U.S. intelligence ‒ and even illegally doctored a CIA email to show otherwise. So why the apparent frame-up? Internal text messages suggest key headquarters officials pushing for the FISA wiretaps, including the official who led the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, Peter Strzok, were biased against Trump and were motivated to “stop” him from becoming president. They also developed an “insurance policy” in case he won. Maintaining wiretaps that would allow headquarters to eavesdrop on political communications well into Trump’s presidency might have been part of that policy.
Civil libertarians say FISA judges can be easily manipulated by politically biased or corrupt agents because of the special way the court is set up.
The powerful Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court that authorizes the FBI to intercept the communications of suspected threats – including U.S. citizens like Page – is highly secretive and opaque. Unlike other federal courts, it lets agents petition judges to monitor targets without defense lawyers present. So FISA court judges hear only the government’s side of the case, inviting the kinds of abuses witnessed in the Trump probe.
Page was never charged with espionage or any crime. He told RCI that he has received “numerous death threats that directly resulted from the false allegations” that he was a traitor.
The FBI would not say if it has sequestered the 11 months of intercepts it collected from Page so agents cannot misuse the private information.
Wray’s predecessor, James Comey, approved the first three FISA warrant applications to spy on Page before he was fired by President Trump in May 2017. Speaking at an FBI conference just five months before he okayed the initial October 2016 FISA application, Comey claimed he took great pains to avoid abusing such surveillance powers.
“Every morning I review the stack of requests that we’re about to send to the federal court to seek permission to wiretap people ‒ for a limited period of time ‒ in our national security investigations,” Comey said in May 2016. “Those applications are often as thick as my wrist or thicker. It is a huge pain in the neck to get permission to bug somebody in the United States, and that’s the way it should be. That’s constraint. That’s oversight. That’s power being checked.”
END
House GOP Launch Probe Into Hunter Biden’s Absurd Plea Deal
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 01:50 PM
House Republicans have launched an investigation into Hunter Biden’s sweetheart plea deal from his father’s Justice Department, which was so egregious that a judge sent it back to the drawing board.
According to the Washington Times, the House committees conducting a probe into the agreement say parts of it were “atypical” to the point where the lead federal prosecutor was forced to admit under questioning that there was no precedent for this type of arrangement.
‘Odd’ features of the deal include a provision which gave Hunter immunity from future prosecutions on crimes beyond the scope of the current case. Another provision limits the government’s ability to prosecute Hunter, should he violate the terms of the deal.
Last week US District Judge Maryellen Noreika said she was not ready to accept the plea deal, and asked both sides to file additional briefs explaining the legal structure of the revised deal.
“I don’t really understand the scope” of the agreement, Noreika said, noting that the younger Biden has had numerous foreign business dealings. At one point, she raised a hypothetical as to whether Biden could be charged as acting as an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, per Bloomberg.
Under the original plea agreement, Biden intended to plea guilty to two misdemeanor tax crimes committed in 2017 and 2018, and would avoid prison on the gun possession charge.
As part of the conditions for Hunter’s release, he must not consume alcohol or prohibited drugs, or possess a firearm, must submit to random drug tests as required, must actively seek employment and not violate any laws.
In a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the GOP committee chairmen demanded to know how Hunter’s bizarre arrangement was reached, and whether it was the DOJ or Biden’s lawyers who first suggested it.
The Department’s unusual plea and pretrial diversion agreements with Mr. Biden raise serious concerns — especially when combined with recent whistleblower allegations — that the Department has provided preferential treatment toward President Biden‘s son in the course of its investigation and proposed resolution of his alleged criminal conduct,” wrote Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith and Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer. -Washington Examiner
As noted by attorneyTechno Fog via The Reactionary, the prosecutors handling the Hunter Biden case have gone way harder against other suspects for the same crimes:
…it’s important to understand who we’re dealing with. Leo Wise is a trial attorney in the DOJ Criminal Division – Public Integrity Section. He has held that position since June of 2023; prior to that, he was the Chief of the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Maryland’s Fraud and Public corruption unit (a position from which he was demoted after disagreements with supervisors over staffing). He has been with the DOJ since at least 2004.
By all accounts, Wise is an aggressive prosecutor. It’s in his DNA. He was part of the Enron Task Force, assisted in the racketeering trial against big tobacco (US v. Philip Morris), and prosecuted significant high-profile cases against corrupt leadership in Baltimore, including the Baltimore Police Gun Trace Task Force, former Baltimore mayor Catherine Pugh, and former Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby. Wise also “brought the biggest racketeering case in Maryland history.”
Assisting Wise on the Hunter Biden case is Derek Hines, an equally aggressive prosecutor whose current role is Assistant US Attorney at the DOJ Criminal Division. Hines, for example, was part of Wise’s prosecution team in the Baltimore Police Gun Trace Task Force, which “won indictments against 11 men – eight Baltimore cops, two civilians, and one Philadelphia office” who robbed drug dealers, sold drugs, and ran interference for drug dealers.
Wise and Hines have been described in one Baltimore Sun article as relentless prosecutors who “are like the terminator.” They are hardliners who “pursue stern sentences and prosecute even small-time crooks.
The Hunter Biden case isn’t the first time Wise and Hines have prosecuted a tax case. Back in 2018, they prosecuted Darryl De Sousa, a former Baltimore Police Commissioner for three counts of failing to file individual tax returns. The case of De Sousa is particularly instructive, as it demonstrates the uncharacteristicallysoft prosecution of Hunter Biden by Wise and Hines. Allow us to explain.
De Sousa was charged with failing to file an income tax return for the years 2013-2015, in violation of 26 USC § 7203. Not only had he failed to file income tax returns for those years, but De Sousa had also owed the IRS taxes for other years (2008-2012) and had “falsely claimed deductions that he was not entitled to.”
The De Sousa case was relatively small, though it did concern misconduct by a public official. He only owed approximately $60,000; the tax loss calculated by the IRS was between $40,000 and $100,000. De Sousa pleaded guilty to failing to file an income tax for the years 2013-2015. DOJ prosecutors Wise and Hines (who, by the way, both served under currently Special Counsel Robert K. Hur when he was US Attorney for the District of Maryland) saw to it that the stipulation of facts included in the November 20, 2018 plea agreement itemized (1) the false deductions claimed by De Sousa, such as vehicle expenses and travel expenses and charitable donations; (2) the specific times De Sousa was put on notice that he owed taxes; and (3) the specific amounts owed by De Sousa in each of the applicable years.
Wise and Hines, true to their reputations, demanded De Sousa go to prison: 12 months incarceration was necessary to send a message to all other tax cheats. There was no promise to recommend probation. The judge would end up sentencing De Sousa to 10 months.
Let’s compare De Sousa’s treatment to the Hunter Biden case.
Both cases involve violations of 26 USC § 7203 (willful failure to pay tax).
The tax loss in the De Sousa case was between $40,000 and $100,000; Wise and Hines recommended he serve a year in prison. The tax loss in the Hunter Biden case is between $1,199,524 and $1,593,329. Wise and Hines, in apparent agreement with DOJ supervisors, recommend Hunter get probation.
Where Wise and Hines made sure the Court was aware of the numerous false deductions in the De Sousa Case, Wise and Hines agree that Hunter Biden’s more significant deductions for sex clubs and prostitutes was because Hunter “miscategorized certain personal expenses as legitimate business expenses.” In doing so, these prosecutors have allowed felony fraud to be excused as a mis-categorization.
In fact, Wise and Hines omitted a discussion of the facts underlying many of the charges recommended by the IRS Tax Division, including those involving fraud (26 USC § 7206). De Sousa never received that benefit – likely because De Sousa, unlike Biden, wasn’t allowed to write his own stipulation.
Wise and Hines agreed to the claim that Hunter Biden received $1,000,000 from Patrick Ho (a Chinese national convicted for bribery) “as a payment for legal fees” – without even thinking to question whether that payment was a bribe masked as legal fees.
Wise and Hines failed to inform the Court of whether Hunter Biden owed California income taxes. In the De Sousa case, that defendant’s outstanding Maryland tax obligations were listed for a number of years and he was required to pay restitution to Maryland.
De Sousa’s plea deal was standard and readily accepted by that court. The Hunter Biden plea/diversion was “unprecedented” and abnormal and without “authority”, contained ambiguous paragraphs that could have allowed Hunter to avoid any type of FARA prosecution, and the diversion itself is probably unconstitutional.
If we can briefly summarize – in the De Sousa case, DOJ prosecutors Wise and Hines wanted to send a message that you get a harsh sentence if you try to avoid your taxes. The DOJ, assisted by Wise and Hines, now sends a different message in the Hunter Biden case: the son of the President gets preferential treatment. More egregious tax crimes are no longer subject to imprisonment.
Barring shocking revelations, DOJ “terminators” Leo Wise and Derek Hines, the prosecutors who in the past pursued “stern sentences”, the two men who made their names in the Department by taking down notorious targets, are now doing all they can – from misrepresenting Hunter’s conduct to the Court to omitting key details of Hunter’s tax fraud – to make sure the President’s son doesn’t even get a slap on the wrist.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report August 1, 2023 Issue 7044
Independent View of the News
Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled JBG monetization on Monday (Sunday night in US) after JGBs hit a 9-year high yield of 0.605%. The BoJ offered to buy ¥300.0B of 5yr. to 10-yr. JGBs.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee remarks on Monday morningI am open to reading the data. I have not made up my mind of September.Services inflation is stickiest; but I have seen a nice bonus of some progress there.The normal rules of direct tradeoff between inflation and the labor market do not apply.The Phillips Curve is broken. (Yep, it blew up in the Eighties when employment soared and inflation collapsed.) Defensive asset allocators appeared on Monday and thwarted the Monday rally and the July performance gaming manipulation – until the afternoon arrived.
ESUs rallied during early Nikkei trading on July performance gaming and the BoJ intervention. The peak appeared at 18:40 ET. ESUs then sank until midnight ET. ESUs and Japanese stocks could only muster a modest rally into the close to end July.
After the Nikkei closed, traders got real about pushing ESUs and stocks higher. ESUs rallied to the daily high of 4619.25 at 9:44 ET. Defensive asset allocators then took control. Astute traders recognized the presence of large equity/ESU sellers and jettisoned their ESUs and stocks.
ESUs and stocks sank until 13:00 ET. The usual suspects only had two hours to manipulate their holdings higher to game July performance. The rally was modest and it ended at 14:56 ET. ESUs and stocks sank until 15:50 ET. Someone then manipulated ESUs 20.00 by the close. Where is the SEC?
From Monday’s King Report: Will Mr. Bond thwart the expected equity rally?
Positive aspects of previous session US stocks rebounded during the afternoon and during the final 10 minutes of trading Gasoline declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session USUs soared from 123 26/32 near the European opening to 124 28/32 at 13:04 ET on asset allocation When the defensive asset allocation ended, USUs sank to 124 12/32 near 15:00 ET Gold and Oil rallied
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Has the CPI trough for 2023 appeared? Mr. Bond seems to think so!
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4585.44 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4594.22; 4573.14
Today – After being stymied in their quest to manipulate stocks higher to game July performance, traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and the standard rally to start the month.
ESUs are +2.25 and USUs are +1/32 at 20:50 ET in quiet trading. Will Mr. Bond thwart the expected equity rally? The key for today could be defensive asset allocators. Astute traders will try to gauge their presence ASAP so they can plan and execute their tactics for the day.
Expected economic data: July S&P Global US Mfg PMI 49; July ISM Mfg 46.9, Prices Paid 43; June Construction Spending 0.6% m/m; July Ward Vehicle Sales 15.7m; Chgo Fed (dove) Goolsbee 10 ET
Expected earnings: CAT 4.54, MRK -2.20, MPC 4.58, ROK 3.18, MO 1.30, PFE .59, PRU 3.01
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4380; 100-day MA: 4222; 150-day MA: 4146; 200-day MA: 4079 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,109; 100-day MA: 33,632; 150-day MA: 33,598; 200-day MA: 33,401 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4381.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4510.37 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close below 4591.83 triggers a buy signal
In coming weeks, the markets will have to digest a Biden impeachment (maybe Garland, Wray, et al) and the consequences of Kamala Harris as POTUS.
@kylenabecker: Devon Archer just testified that Joe Biden met with the Moscow mayor’s billionaire wife Elena Baturina in spring 2014 before she wired $3.5 million to Hunter Biden. Baturina is the same Russian oligarch the Biden regime refused to sanction. If you are looking for how the Biden family’s corruption compromises U.S. national security, look no further. This is real Russian collusion.
@GOPoversight: Archer’s testimony confirms Joe Biden lied to the American people when he said he had no knowledge about his son’s business dealings and was not involved… Archer confirmed Joe Biden was referred to as “my guy” by Hunter Biden… In 2014, then-VP Biden attended a business dinner with Hunter & his associates at Café Milano in D.C. Elena Baturina, a Russian oligarch who is the widow of the former mayor of Moscow, was an attendee. Notably, the Biden Admin’s public sanctions do not contain Baturina. (Long thread at link) https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1686109950173425665
NY Post’s @mirandadevine: Devon Archer’s testimony today is bombshell: Hunter Biden’s ex BFF testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was “the brand” and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to “the brand.” Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for “the brand.” In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin. Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, “called D.C.” to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call. Devon Archer testified that Hunter Biden put then-Vice President Joe Biden on the speakerphone during business meetings, over 20 times. Archer testified that Joe Biden was put on the phone to sell “the brand.” These phone calls include a dinner in Paris with a French energy company and in China with Jonathan Li of BHR. In spring of 2014, then-Vice President Joe Biden attended a business dinner with his son, Hunter, and his associates at Café Milano in Washington, D.C. Elena Baturina, a Russian oligarch who is the widow of the former mayor of Moscow, attended the dinner. Notably, the Biden Administration’s public sanctions list for Russian oligarchs does not contain Baturina…
@LarryOConnor: Understand this: Hunter getting Joe on speakerphone WAS THE DELIVERABLE. It literally doesn’t matter what was discussed.Showing that he could get the Vice President of the United States on the phone was all Hunter had to show his clients to seal the deal. He was selling ACCESS not policy. Getting The Big Guy to pick up the phone demonstrated his ability to deliver that access. Case closed. Impeach.
Law Professor Jonathan Turley: “What we now know, quite frankly, is that the President has been lying…I think this is shaping up to be one of the greatest corruption scandals in the history of Washington, and that is saying a lot.” https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1686127053958225920
@dbongino: This is certainly the lowest, most disgusting thing I’ve seen in politics. And with the scum we have in office, that’s saying a lot. Human trash pile Dan Goldman, and the democrats, invoking the death of Beau Biden to explain the Biden crime family’s corrupt dealings is an abomination to humankind. These people are a disgrace to the human species. Disgusting garbage people.
@themarketswork: First it was, “Joe never talked to Hunter about his business.” Then it became, “Joe never talked to Hunter’s business partners.“ Now: “Joe talked extensively with them all – but just about the weather.” This is headed directly to the place we always knew it would go.
What did Obama know about his VP’s corruption and influence peddling?
Daily Mail EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden told judge under oath that he was a member of the Connecticut bar in good standing – but he was SUSPENDED two years ago for failure to pay feesHunter Biden told Delaware district judge Maryellen Noreika that he was eligible to practice law in Washington, D.C. and ConnecticutDailyMail.com can reveal Hunter was suspended from practicing law in the Nutmeg State more than two years ago for failing to pay his $75 annual feesA former Connecticut state legislator called Hunter’s statement to the judge ‘extraordinary’ adding that he ‘misled the court’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12356755/Hunter-Biden-told-judge-oath-member-Connecticut-bar-good-standing-SUSPENDED-two-years-failure-pay-fees.html @TomFitton: Of course Hunter is an unregistered foreign agent. A federal judge effectively exposed that with one question up in Delaware today.
Hunter Biden told Devon Archer they would get ‘last laugh’ after conviction was thrown outers’ Biden praises Archer in emails, calls him ‘great friend through thick and thin’ in 2014 email ‘SWEAR TO GOD’: Hunter Biden told his longtime friend, Devon Archer, they would get the “last laugh” after Archer said a judge threw out his conviction, according to 2018 text messages reviewed by Fox News Digital… https://t.co/libUr2dsw2
On Sunday night, due to pressure, opprobrium, and ridicule, the Biden DoJ backtracked on trying to prevent Hunter’s business partner from testifying to House members: “The Government does not request (and never has requested) that the defendant surrender before his Congressional testimony… the Government requests that any surrender order… be scheduled to occur after the defendant’s Congressional testimony is completed.” https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1685816293486739456/photo/1
Breitbart’s John Hayward @Doc_0: The Hunter Biden saga illuminates the Biden family’s rapacious corruption, and even worse, the corruption of federal agencies to protect them. Also, it’s further evidence that we must shatter the elite bubble and force them to live in the America they made for the rest of us. The corruption angle is huge, arguably the story of the century in American politics. Socialists claim they can create an all-knowing mega-government run by honest, selfless geniuses – but what they always deliver is a corrupt sewer state run by greedy mediocrities… There are no big, honest governments, and every one of the many, many embarrassing tales of mega-corruption must be spotlighted to keep proving it, over and over again. The most important goal of civic reform today is shattering the pernicious illusion of Honest Big Government. Hunter Biden is an absolutely perfect example of what socialism actually delivers: a privileged elite of boundless greed and degenerate morality, milking cash out of the trillion-dollar state by peddling influence and selling protection, insulated from all legal consequences… Big Biz had long been a paying customer for political corruption. Under fascism, Big Biz becomes a junior partner instead of just a customer. It gets drafted into the ruling Party’s political crusades…
@RNCResearch: Biden says “being there” for his grandkids “is important and makes such a difference.” https://t.co/bKXwBpR3u2
NBC News: Inside the online world of people who think they can change their race Subliminals, which are audio files or videos intended to evoke certain outcomes… emerged as part of a larger trend in which people hope to manifest changes and bend reality to achieve certain goals… Tiq Milan, a Black transgender activist and writer, said it is a disservice to transgender people to compare the two. Race historically emerged as a social construct to establish a racial hierarchy with the white race at the top, whereas variances in gender identity have existed for thousands of years, he said… (This so insanely mad, you wonder why NBC published it!) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/race-change-to-another-trend-online-rcna93759
GOP Presidential Candidate @VivekGRamaswamy: True “privilege” is not based on the color of your skin. It’s being raised in a stable family with two parents with a focus on education and a faith in God. That’s the ultimate “privilege.”
‘IgG4 Antibodies Induced by Repeated Vaccination May Generate Immune Tolerance to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein’ paper by Vladimir N Uversky et al. may hold some answers or clues???
‘As the immunity provided by these vaccines rapidly wanes, their ability to prevent hospitalization and severe disease in individuals with comorbidities has recently been questioned, and increasing evidence has shown that, as with many other vaccines, they do not produce sterilizing immunity, allowing people to suffer frequent re-infections.
injection; you could die on the field! KJ Hamler announced he was diagnosed with pericarditis. He will step away from football to treat the mild heart irritation, and the Broncos will now waive him
What killed Ella? brain tumour & TURBO cancer due to the mRNA TECHNOLOGY COVID technology gene shot? Ella McCreadie was found dead in bed by her parents after suffering a haemorrhage
Nano/Liposomal Curcumin 500 mg twice daily; multiple exposures to both sources of spike protein highly problematic, both sources of spike protein very toxic & stays in body so REMOVAL/detox is KEY!
Base Spike Detox (BSD) for 3-12 or more months comprised of:
Nattokinase 2000 FU (100 mg) twice daily
Bromelain 500 mg once daily
Nano/Liposomal Curcumin 500 mg twice daily
‘Approximately ~25% of the US adult population did not take a COVID-19 vaccine according to the COVID States Report. Many of these individuals fought very hard to avoid genetic injections, however, most have had SARS-CoV-2 infection one or more times. The 75% who took one or more shots ended up getting the respiratory illness when the vaccines failed them, so they have had even more exposure to the Wuhan wild type Spike protein. What is happening with SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein accumulating in the human body? It is not easily cleared by human peptidases and can be found in virtually every tissue and organ. Hence we have a heavy reliance on Base Spike Detox (BSD) for 3-12 or more months comprised of:
Nattokinase 2000 FU (100 mg) twice daily
Bromelain 500 mg once daily
Nano/Liposomal Curcumin 500 mg twice daily’
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH Approximately ~25% of the US adult population did not take a COVID-19 vaccine according to the COVID States Report. Many of these individuals fought very hard to avoid genetic injections, however, most have had SARS-CoV-2 infection one or more times. The 75% who took one or more shots ended up getting the respiratory ill…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Russian Crude Shipments Tumble To Lowest Since January As Urals Price Jumps To $65, Breaching Embargo Cap
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 02:30 PM
A few weeks ago, we reported that Russian crude oil exports are finally starting to show signs of decline.
Since then, the slowdown in Russian outbound flows has accelerated substantially, and as Bloomberg’s Julian Lee reports, Russian seaborne crude flows in the four weeks to July 30 slid to the lowest since early January, as Moscow continues to cut supply to international markets.
Russia’s four-week average crude shipments fell by 154k b/d to 2.98m b/d, down by 905k b/d from their peak in mid-May and 400k b/d below the level seen in February.
… even as the more volatile weekly shipments jumped, rising w/w by 548k b/d to 3.28m b/d, although a lot of the weekly swing is due to seasonality.
As a reminder, February was the baseline month cited when the Russian government announced a 500k b/d output cut that was due to come into effect in March. While the cut was clearly delayed, Russian seaborne flows are now clearly in compliance with Russia’s output cut.
A breakdown of Russian flows by destination shows that Indian supplies have dropped sharply, followed by a more modest decline in China shipment, even as shipments to “unknown” countries in Asia have picked up.
Where there was no pick up, was in Russian flows to Europe…
… and there certainly won’t be a pick up any time soon, as the average price for Russia’s Urals crude export blend soared 16.4% m/m to $64.37/bbl in July, the Finance Ministry said in a statement.
That price is far above the G-7 price cap for Russia’s oil, set at $60/bbl (see “In “Victory” For Moscow, Russia Defies Sanctions By Selling Oil Above Western Price Cap” for more). And while the July price of Urals was nearly 18% down y/y from $78.41/bbl in July 2022, it means that virtually all Urals supply is now verboten to western clients, who will be afraid of consequences should they violate the embargo.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Canadian Pastor Convicted Of Inciting Mischief In Trucker Protests Facing Up To 10 Years Prison
In 2005, he began serving and ministering to downtown Calgary—Alberta’s poor and downtrodden. “In other words, feeding the homeless and praying for them, which is now illegal,” he described to The Epoch Times in a telephone interview while under house arrest in Calgary following his court conviction in May for inciting mischief and violating his release conditions.
The police eventually showed up at Mr. Pawlowski’s church, telling him he couldn’t feed the homeless by law. Neither was he allowed to assemble or preach in public.
“They even have laws on the books that distributing printed materials—Bibles and Gospel tracts—is illegal. So I got tickets for that,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
He added that tensions with the authorities had reached the point where police showed up at his church weekly.
During the pandemic, he received 40 tickets for COVID-19 violations, including one for a Christmas celebration he said drew a response from over 100 police officers, 52 police vehicles, as well as anti-terrorism units.
Over 300 Citations
Between 2005 and 2015, Mr. Pawlowski said he received over 300 citations for refusing to stop preaching, feeding the homeless, and doing what he thought was helpful to those in need.
He was arrested and charged in 2006 for reading the Bible in public, and considers being the first Canadian to receive a COVID-19 ticket for feeding the homeless a badge of honor in what he’d say was righteous defiance.
Mr. Pawlowski, pastor of the Cave of Adullam ministry and founder of Street Church Ministries in Calgary, said he has also been granted some victories in the eyes of the law. He won significant court battles through Alberta’s provincial courts of appeal.
On Aug. 9, Mr. Pawlowski, a native of Poland and an acolyte of the “Solidarity Movement,” could receive up to 10 years in prison for the charge of “inciting mischief” during Canada’s nationwide trucker protests last year.
The protests rose in response to the public health rules of Canada’s Trudeau administration, sparking a massive “Freedom Convoy” from like-minded residents that threatened to bring the nation’s economy to a halt unless COVID-19 restrictions that were also impacting the economy and mental health were lifted.
Response to Government Overreach
As a Christian minister, Mr. Pawlowski said he believed he was waging a spiritual battle against “government overreach” during the pandemic, even if it means he has to pay fines, get arrested, or go to jail.
On Feb. 7, 2022, at the border crossing blockade in Coutts, Alberta, Mr. Pawlowski told a crowd of commercial truckers, “It’s about time for Canadians to rise up and start roaring.”
“For the first time in two years, you’ve got the power. They’ve got the guns, yes—it’s all useless when you all rise up. There is no tyrant big enough that can stop [the] masses.”
Canadian authorities arrested and charged him with inciting mischief and interfering with essential infrastructure under Alberta’s Critical Infrastructure Defense Act of 2020.
Mr. Pawlowski said Canadian authorities also accused him of promoting “genocide” for referencing the Solidarity Movement contributing to the fall of communism in Poland.
“Of course, if you listened to my service, you will know that I said no guns, no swords, just stand for God and human rights during my sermon three times,” he said of the accusation.
Mr. Pawlowski said he spent 50 days in prison, mostly in solitary confinement surrounded by concrete cells, before he was placed in maximum security and a psychiatric ward without evaluation.
“So, encouraging Canadians to stand for God and state human rights is a criminal act, a terrorism act,” said Mr. Pawlowski, who needs special permission to leave his house between 7 p.m. and 7 a.m. “Therefore I am guilty, and all of them are guilty, according to this judge.”
Months later, he is “still under house arrest in Calgary,” he said.
Belief on Trial
“I am the first Canadian where my sermon and speech were on trial. Everything was about what I said. The lawyers argued what I meant. It was a charade, a show trial—a joke,” Mr. Pawlowski said.
“I was not allowed to say a word as they debated what I said and what I meant. They couldn’t agree on the wording.”
Mr. Pawlowski said he is also the first Canadian citizen charged with eco-terrorism in the history of Canada.
“And now, the judge ruled I am the first Canadian ever to be found guilty of inciting mischief and eco-terrorism,” Mr. Pawlowski said. “The Canadian courts are upside down. I am a political prisoner. It has nothing to do with law and order,” he expressed.
An Alberta Crown Prosecution Service spokesman told The Epoch Times in an email that the agency has “no comment on this matter.”
Sarah Miller of JSS Barristers is currently representing Mr. Pawlowski in the case. She said she “currently cannot speak to media regarding this case while the sentencing is outstanding.”
However, Ms. Miller said she does not expect sentencing to occur on Aug. 9. Rather, the proceedings will “set the date for sentencing.”
“I hope to be able to speak publicly about this case in the future,” Ms. Miller added.
Son Expresses Cry for Help
The pastor’s son, Nathan Pawlowski, recently testified in the European Parliament about the “consequences of abuse of power under the guise of help” during the pandemic by the Canadian government.
“I am here today in desperation—a cry for help,” Nathan Pawlowski said by videolink from Canada. “I would like to tell you all the things about freedom and democracy that I like, but I no longer know those things.
“They have been taken away from us Canadians. Canada has fallen. We no longer have freedom of religion, freedom of speech, or the right to assemble, associate, or express ourselves, or have free media or disagree with the government.”
Nathan Pawlowski said his father could be imprisoned for up to a decade for his trucker sermon and referenced the Solidarity Movement.
“This case sets a precedent with all Canadians—and the world—if you allow this to happen,” he said.
He explained that his father was charged with preaching and reading the Bible publicly because the government had ruled that the Bible is “hateful and isn’t inclusive.”
“My father told the truckers to stand for their rights, Solidarity-style, and to do so peacefully.”
“If he goes down, we are all lost as Canadians. If a pastor goes to prison, what can they do to the rest of us?” the younger Pawlowski said.
‘Seen This Movie Before’
In a video recording played by his son, Mr. Pawlowski also addressed the European Parliament—as a political dissident “born behind the Iron Curtain of Poland, crushed by the iron fist of oppression” in Canada.
“Freedom is more than a word—it’s a measure of our humanity, courage, and determination. It’s a cost borne by soldiers, journalists, and volunteers,” he said.
Mr. Pawlowski told The Epoch Times he had received offers of money and government positions in exchange for his silence, but he’s “not for sale.”
“I have seen this movie before” under communism in Poland, he said. “It does not end well.”
END
NIGER/FRANCE
France Evacuating EU Citizens From Coup-Hit Niger, Escalation Looms
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 11:10 AM
European countries are initiating emergency evacuation plans for the their citizens currently in Niger, following last Friday’s coup events which saw the country’s military leadership declare President Mohamed Bazoum removed from power, overthrown by his own presidential guard.
“France is preparing the evacuation of its citizens and (other) European citizens who want to leave the country,” the French foreign ministry said in a statement, noting it will begin immediately. At least three other European countries have followed suit.
“Considering the ongoing coup in Niger and the fact that the situation continues to be worrying, we decided to make sure that the French citizens who want to leave Niger can do so,” French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told a national broadcaster.
Germany’s foreign ministry too noted that France has “offered, within the limits of available capacity, to take German nationals on board their flights from Niger”. The government is imploring for Germans to take that offer.
Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani has also announced a “special flight to Italy” to evacuate its nationals. Spain too is reportedly making emergency plans.
There are believed to be at least multiple hundreds still in Niger from these EU countries, likely with the most being French. A number of French companies, importantly French nuclear fuels company Orano, have plants in Niger.
Orano has said its operations are continuing, chiefly through its predominantly Nigerien workforce.
As for the Western troop presence in the country, which has long worked with Niger’s military on counterterror operations, Reuters has noted that “The United States, Germany, and Italy have troops in Niger on counter-insurgency and training missions. There has been no announcement of troops being evacuated so far.”
The security situation, particularly in the capital of Niamey, has continued to unravel particularly after over the weekend pro-coup demonstrators stormed at set fire to the French embassy. Reports then emerged that the overthrown government in exile was calling on France to intervene militarily.
Meanwhile, the European Union on Monday issued a scathing attack on the junta headed by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, while announcing new sanctions:
The EU said Monday it would hold Niger’s putschists responsible for all attacks on civilians, diplomatic personnel and embassies after pro-coup demonstrators rallied outside the embassy of former colonial ruler France.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement that the European Union will also “quickly and resolutely” apply the decision of the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to apply economic sanctions on Niger.
At this moment there remains the threat of Niger’s current turmoil spilling outside its borders and into a greater West Africa confrontation…
Washington has reportedly sought the intervention of Chad to mediate a restoration of the democratically elected government of Bazoum, but each day that passes makes that prospect more and more unlikely.
From the West’s perspective, looming large in the background is expanding Russian influence in Africa. Already there are hyped headlines claiming Putin is now eyeing extending his influence to Niger and across West Africa. Additionally, France is heavily dependent on uranium from Niger, with the coup government having declared the suspension of uranium and gold exports on Monday.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0978 DOWN 0.0019
USA/ YEN 142.93 UP 0.594 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2787 DOWN 0.0044
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3271 UP .0076 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 76 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.09 PTS OR 0.00%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 67.82 PTS OR 0.34%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.55 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 67.82 PTS OR 0.34%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.09 PTS OR 0.00%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 304.36 PTS OR 0.92%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1953.95
silver:$24,44
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.97 UP 35 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1777
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1854)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.96 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.601…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.040% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.1010 UP 10 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 33.14 points or 0.43%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 206,43 PTS OR 1.22%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 91.70 PTS OR 1.22%
Spain IBEX DOWN 138.60 PTS OR 1.44%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 288.55 PTS OR 0.97%
WTI Oil price 81.18 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.85 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 92.33 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 73//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5265 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4465 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0981 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2775 DOWN .0056 or 56 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.455 % UP 11 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.591%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.36 UP 1.038 //YEN DOWN 104 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3288 UP .0084 CDN dollar, DOWN 84 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.47
Brent OIL: 84.99
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 4.038%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.099%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.879%
USA dollar index: 102.02 UP 40 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.97 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.33 DOWNP 0 AND 78/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 100.24 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ 100 UP 6.07 PTS OR 0.039%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.62 UP 0.29 PTS (72.18)%
GLD: $182.35 UP 0.49 OR 0.27%
SLV/ $22.69 UP .37 OR 1.66%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//
II) USA DATA/
US Manufacturing Surveys Confirm Contraction; Employment Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 10:07 AM
It’s been a rough morning for Global Manufacturing PMIs – China, Turkey, Italy, France, Germany (shitshow), Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Brazil all printed below 50 (contracting).
So can USA, USA, USA buck the trend – besides we have something no other country has – “Bidenomics“!!!!!
US macro data has serially surprised to the upside in recent weeks, so expectations were for a rebound in US Manufacturing ‘soft’ survey data and S&P Global’s PMI printed 49.0 in July (still in contraction), unchanged from the flash print earlier in the month (but up from the 46.3 final print in June). ISM’s Manufacturing survey headline disappointed, printing 46.4 (46.9 exp) – still in contraction – but up marginally from the 46.0 June print. ISM hasn’t been above 50 since August 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
ISM’s Manufacturing survey showed Employment slowing at its fastest rate since COVID lockdowns. Prices and New Orders continue to contract…
“Manufacturing continues to act as a drag on the US economy, the recent spell of malaise persisting at the start of the third quarter. However, producers are clearly shrugging off recession fears and planning for better times ahead.
“The sector continued to suffer from lower demand, as a post-pandemic shift in spending from goods to services, and an ongoing trend of cost-focused inventory reduction, led to a further drop in orders.
“The overall rate of order book decline nevertheless moderated during the month, helped by a slower decline in exports, to help stabilize production. “
There are some silver-linings for those desperate to find something bullish ‘soft-landing’-y to cling to…
“There were several other encouraging bright spots in the survey, most notably including a marked improvement in business expectations for output in the year ahead. Firms are therefore anticipating the current soft patch to soon pass, and importantly are hiring more staff as a result.
“There was also good news on the inflation front. The combination of weak demand and improved supply led to a further “buyers’ market” for many goods. Prices charged for goods consequently barely rose for a third straight month, which should help subdue consumer price inflation in the near term.”
Still, not exactly the exuberant economy that ‘Bidenomics’ promised.
end
Economy seems to be collapsing: job openings drop to 2 yr lows
(zerohedge)
Wheels Come Off The “Strong Jobs” Myth: Job Openings Drop To 2 year Low As Number Of Hires And Quits Plunge
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 10:38 AM
For those enthralled by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of well-paid, middle-management employees are replaced by a cheap “bullshitting” AI algo, then today’s latest JOLTS report may come as a bigger shock than the big drop in job openings from one month ago. That’s because after unexpectedly dumping by 496K in May (a number which has been revised far worse of course), the BLS just reported that in June the number of job openings was practically unchanged, dropping by just 34K, to 9.582MM from a downward revised 9.616 million. And while the monthly change was modest after the downward revision of course, the total was dragged to the lowest level since April 2021.
The number was about 1.4 million below the 11 million from a year ago and below the consensus estimate of 9.6 million, a rare miss in a series which has been best known for decisively beating Wall Street’s expectations.
According to the BLS, the largest increases in job openings was in health care and social assistance (+136,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+62,000). Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-78,000), state and local government education (-29,000), and federal government (-21,000)
The slide in the number of job openings meant that after rising to the highest since January 2023 in April, in June the number of job openings was just 3.7625 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the lowest since Sept 2021.
Said otherwise, after rising to 1.82 openings for every worker in April, in June the number dropped to just 1.61, which would have been the lowest level since Oct 2021 if it weren’t for last month’s sharp downward revision.
Yet even as the number of job openings dropped only modestly from the (sharply) downward revised print for May (because under Biden, no number is ever revised stronger), conflicting data remained and in June, the number of people quitting their jobs – an indicator traditionally associated with labor market strength as it shows workers are confident they can find a better wage elsewhere – unexpectedly tumbled by 295K to just 3.772MM, the biggest monthly drop since May 2021.
According to the BLS, the number of quits decreased in several industries, with the largest decreases in retail trade (-95,000), health care and social assistance (-75,000), and construction (-51,000). The number of quits increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+20,000).
And just in case some still believe Biden’s strong jobs lie, the number of hires also tumbled in June, crashing by 326K – the biggest monthly drop since July 2020…
… to 5.905MM, the lowest since February 2021.
Of course, as we have explained on multiple occasions previously, none of the above data actually matters or is credible for the simple reason that the response rate of the JOLTS survey is stuck at a record low 31.2%. Which means that only those who actually have job openings to report do so, while two-thirds of employers are either non-responsive or their mail is quietly lost in the mail.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Victor Davis Hanson: The Biden Presidency Is Unsustainable
Imagine if Gavin Newsom was currently Vice President amid the final meltdown of the Biden family consortium.
Does anyone doubt that Biden would then either be forced to resign by Democratic politicos (for reasons in addition to his escalating dementia), or would be impeached and perhaps abdicate Nixon-style?
The presence of the now predictable mediocrity of Kamala Harris and the impossibility, given her race and gender, of removing her, for now is about all that keeps a cognitively declining Biden still in office. The Left fears what she could do as president to the Democratic Party; conservatives are terrified of what she could do to the country.
Joe Biden’s bewilderment exempts his embarrassments from accountability in the way that Hunter Biden’s addictions excuse his past serial criminality. But the passes granted to both father and son would be now unsustainable with a viable Vice President in waiting.
Indeed, the Harris problem explains some of current Democratic strategy.
Backroom leaks and growing insider rumors of Biden dementia confirm the portrait of an often befuddled president whom the public by now knows all too well.
The aimless House Democrats’ “how-dare-you-even-consider-an-impeachment inquiry” furor, coupled with their half-hearted efforts, along with the media, to refute the actual charges of corruption of the Biden family, suggest that he will not run for reelection—but also not be impeached much less convicted or removed under the 25th Amendment.
So the Harris dilemma explains a lot: finding a way to keep her out of current power until Biden somehow finishes his first term, and thus letting the Democratic 2024 primary candidates organically abort her presidential aspirations.
There are a few problems, however, with this strategy.
One, can Joe Biden finish his first term?
That would require his staff to shorten his already truncated workday for the next 18 months to about 2-3 hours of work per day.
He would have to be kept away from photo-ops with young (especially female) children, lest he turkey-gobbles the cheek of another victim to a worldwide audience.
He can no longer read off a teleprompter without slurring his words, losing his place, or going off extemporaneously on to topics such as “Vladimir” Zelenskyy, the “Iraq” war in Ukraine, or relief over the curing of cancer.
He cannot hold half-hour press conferences given his incoherence and his angry prevarications. He still insists incredulously that he never discussed the Biden family business with Hunter, although we may soon see transcripts, recordings, and affidavits that he was in fact intimately involved in and profited from it.
The Strange Case of Hunter in the White House
Hunter is toxic and capable of leaving behind incriminating evidence or engaging in surreal behavior anywhere and anytime. Why would a former crack cocaine addict be brought into the White House, after which a bag of cocaine was for the first time in presidential history found abandoned in the West Wing?
(Partial answer: why and how would an addict leave an incriminating crackpipe in a rental car, simply abandon a laptop at a repair shop with evidence of his own felonious behavior on it, or allow his illegally registered handgun to turn up in a dumpster near a school)?
An outside, disinterested observer who read the contents of the laptop and Hunter’s wounded-fawn protestations about his unappreciated role in enriching his father and uncle, or digested his unhinged recent career as a quid-pro-quo, paint-by-the-numbers artiste, selling high-priced junk in exchange for presidential flavors, would conclude that the Bidens are apprehensive of the unpredictable Hunter. Keep your friends close, but your explosive son even closer.
Of course, they fear Hunter’s recklessness, addictions, and greed—but more perhaps his ability to take down the entire Biden clan should they distance themselves too far from him or leak that the family’s corrupt schemes were birthed by the fall-guy Hunter alone.
Aside from Joe’s cognitive decline and Hunter’s volatility, no one believes anymore Joe Biden’s patent lies that he never discussed with Hunter his lucrative grifting career. Already, the untruth has transmogrified into he never did business with Hunter—and soon perhaps he never profited from the business he did and discussed with Hunter.
No matter, by year’s end there will be witnesses and hard data showing that Joe himself discussed pay-for-play schemes with foreign entities, of the sort he long ago boasted with previous impunity before a Council of Foreign Relations event.
This is no Whitewater, Trooper-gate, or Stormy Daniels scandal, but bribery of the sort explicitly outlined by the Constitution for removal from office: “The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
Selling influence to foreign-government related enterprises is, of course, not just bribery but perhaps treason as well. And it involves other “high Crimes and Misdemeanors,” among them tax fraud on unreported foreign income.
Moreover, it is arguable that the Biden shake-down consortium has altered the very nature of U.S. foreign policy. We will never know the full effect of the false Russian disinformation/laptop narrative, following the fake Russian collusion hoax, on Kremlin thinking. Nor can we explain why Joe Biden once urged Putin to lay off hacking humanitarian U.S. targets, or suggested that a minor invasion of Ukraine would not elicit a U.S. response, or offered to airlift Zelenskyy out of Kyiv in the first days of the war.
Nor can we explain why China was never held accountable by Biden after new information entailed the role of the Wuhan lab in birthing the Covid virus, or for sending a spy balloon across the continental U.S. with impunity. Meanwhile, the administration’s crazy talk of partnering with a supposedly non-bellicose China seems unhinged.
Finally, given the first Trump impeachment, what is the Left now going to say to House Republicans—“You cannot in this country impeach a president merely for threatening to cancel foreign aid unless Ukraine fired a prosecutor looking into his high-ranking family’s illegal influence selling?”
Equality Under the Law?
The Democrats in their Trump derangement fits so lowered the bar for impeachment and special prosecutions, that not impeaching or removing Biden under the Left’s own new standards seems almost ridiculous.
If Trump earned hysteria about 25th-amendment removal (to the point of taking and acing the Montreal Cognitive Assessment) for a halting gait on an occasion descending a ramp, how could a non-compos-mentis and chronically falling Biden not be so examined?
Moreover, Trump was impeached for 1) asking a foreign leader to examine the corruption of the Biden family with Ukraine while he put a hold on approved foreign aid to Ukraine; 2) and at the time, it was possible that Joe Biden could have been Trump’s likely future 2020 opponent.
But in contrast note that Biden 1) issued an ultimatum that a Ukraine prosecutor would either be summarily fired, or aid would be ended. And he was fired!; and 2) Biden was only a possible general-election presidential rival when Trump called Zelensky; Trump is currently the front-runner against a putative Biden candidacy in 2024.
Biden has also done far more than ask Ukraine to ensure a political opponent was not guilty of corruption, but rather sicced a special DOJ prosecutor on Trump for taking out classified papers in the manner that Joe Biden himself did years earlier, without the prerogative as a senator or vice president of declassifying such papers.
Harris Paradoxes
The open disregard for Kamala Harris is not just a Republican phenomenon. Her dismal popularity reflects that such disappointment in her is bipartisan. And now the likely machinations mentioned to keep her out of the presidency are undoing all the racial and gender pandering that explain her otherwise inexplicable appointment in the first place. At some point the Democratic identity-politics base is going to pressure the party’s hierarchy to back off and back Harris or face charges of racism.
In an odd way, the Left’s tolerance of Biden’s own cognitive impairment also strengthens Harris’s case, especially among her diversity base. Kamala utters incomprehensible sentences; Joe cannot finish them. Kamala’s public declamations are kindergarten stuff; Joe’s are more nursery school level. In theory, Kamala can be coached and improve; Joe’s declines are at a geometric rate that is irreversible.
So if someone so cognitively challenged is currently President with the full assent of the Democratic Party, for what reasons does it turn its animus on a Vice President who is still relatively young and hale?
How odd that the Left knows that both the current President and Vice President should not be in either job after 2024; and yet its own prior pandering and rank politicking have made both almost impossible to remove. And how odder that the extra-legal measures the Left took to emasculate the Trump presidency are now the low standards by which an utterly corrupt Biden can be investigated, indicted, impeached, or forced to resign.
end
US Government Debt Spikes by $1.2 trillion since Debt Ceiling, to $32.7 Trillion. Treasury to Add $1.5 Trillion in Debt by Year-End
To set the scene for what’s to come in a moment: The total US national debt spiked by $1.19 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted, to $32.66 trillion.
And to set the scene further: This $32.66 trillion of debt is composed of two groups of Treasury securities:
$6.9 trillion of nonmarketable (not traded in the market) Treasury securities that have been bought by US government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc.;
$25.7 trillion in marketable securities (Treasury securities held and traded by the global public, from regular folks to central banks, including the Fed).
Marketable securities outstanding have spiked by $1.05 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted on June 2, a huge amount of issuance in two months.
And in a moment, we’ll get into how much more will be issued for the remainder of the year: Another $1.5 trillion (as indicated by the green line and technical term for this phenomenon), according to the jacked-up projections released today by the Treasury Department:
Today’s debt-issuance shocker for the 2nd half.
The Treasury Department today jacked up its borrowing plans to deal with the lower-than-previously-expected revenues and the higher-than-previously-expected outlays, as the deficit keeps careening out of all control.
For the current quarter: $1.01 trillion in additional debt. This July through September quarter has only two months left, Treasury jacked up its borrowing plans by $274 billion, to total borrowing in the quarter of $1.01 trillion, up from the $733 billion it had imagined in May, according to its announcement today.
In other words, the government will issue over $1 trillion in marketable securities this quarter that the market has to buy this quarter, in addition to refinancing maturing securities.
Last time the government issued securities at this pace and faster was in 2020, but back then, the Fed was buying Treasuries hand over fist, including $3 trillion in March through May 2020. Now the Fed is shedding Treasuries at a pace of about $60 billion a month.
Markets not only have to digest the new issuance but also pick up the $60 billion a month that the Fed is walking away from.
The Treasury Department cited three main reasons for this $274 billion increase to this monster $1.01 trillion in new issuance this quarter:
It raised by $50 billion the balance it wants to have in its checking account, the Treasury General Account (TGA), by the end of September, to $650 billion, from $600 billion as planned in May.
It started out the quarter with $148 billion less in the TGA than projected in May. So it was behind before the quarter even started.
It now projects “lower receipts and higher outlays” than imagined in May, requiring an additional $83 billion new debt to cover this additional deficit.
For the next quarter: $852 billion in new borrowing. In the October through December quarter, Treasury expects to borrow an additional $852 billion, to end with a cash balance in its TGA of $750 billion.
The way things are going, with these big upward revisions of borrowing estimates, along with the less than projected receipts and more than expected outlays, we can expect an upward revision of this $852 billion by the next update.
Total new borrowing in the second half: $1.85 trillion. In July – the first month of the second half – the government already borrowed nearly $300 billion. So for the five months from now through the end of December, the government projects to issue $1.56 trillion in new debt. Some of it to refill the TGA to $750 billion (from $550 billion now), and the rest of it cover the budget deficit.
Bon appétit, investors!
This is a huge amount of supply of Treasury securities coming to the market, on top of the $60 billion a month in maturing securities that the Fed is walking away from, and as they’re refinanced, the market has to pick them up too.
Yield solves all demand problems. That’s what yield is for, and it’s a good thing, we know that. You can sell even the riskiest junk bonds if the yield is high enough. So there will be buyers, but the yields will have to be high enough to attract them.
So far, the government has only increased its issuance of Treasury bills (securities of one year or less) and Cash Management Bills – a veritable flood of CMBs.
CMBs are the most flexible securities for the government. They are sold at auctions on short notice and outside the normal auction schedule. Their balance is not included in the above charted $32.66 trillion in national debt. CMBs can have peculiar terms, from one day on up to several months. For example, on July 27, Treasury announced that it will offer $50 billion in 42-day CMBs at an auction on August 1.
Even though CMBs are not included in the balance of the US national debt, they will still have to be absorbed by investors and are part of what investors have to buy.
The longer-term securities are coming. On Wednesday, Treasury is expected to announce a substantial increase in the issuance of longer-term securities – Treasury notes of 2 to 10 years and bonds of 20 and 30 years – most likely through increases of the sizes of its regular auctions.
This increased supply of longer-term securities will have to attract enough buyers with a yield that is high enough. Currently, Treasury bills are paying somewhere near 5.5%. But the 10-year yield is only around 4%. So this will be interesting.
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS
END.
SWAMP STORIES
How stupid can one get? Reparation plans would bankrupt the state
(Gilmore/EpochTimes)
Former San Francisco Supervisor Warns California Reparations Plans Would Bankrupt State
California reparations plans are moving forward, with separate proposals under consideration by the state Legislature and the city of San Francisco, but critics including a former San Francisco supervisor are raising alarms that the recommendations exceed budgetary limitations.
Established in May 2021 with the passage of Assembly Bill 3121, the California Reparations Task Force submitted its final recommendations to the Legislature on June 29, in the form of a 1,100-page report issuing guidance for apologies and calculations for determining cash payments.
Also, San Francisco’s African American Reparations Advisory Committee issued their final report (pdf) July 7 with a lengthy list of recommendations including a $5 million lump sum payment to each eligible person and additional $97,000—adjusted to median income—each per year for the next 250 years; home, renters, and commercial insurance paid by the city; selling condominiums for $1 to eligible residents; and tax abatement on sales tax for the next 250 years.
“I have never seen a more insidious, inane, exploitative, and cruel plan put forth to the American public,” Mr. Hall said. “In San Francisco, you’re asking non-slave owners to pay $5 million to people that were never slaves. The average household is going to have to pay about $600,000.”
The number only grows once factoring in the additional economic empowerment recommendations presented by the city’s advisory committee, he said.
“That’s not counting the $97,000 every year for the rest of their lives. That’s not counting the free education. That’s not counting the forgiveness of all debts. That’s not counting the right for them to buy a house in San Francisco for a dollar,” Mr. Hall said during the 30-minute-long interview. “It’s a joke.”
It is estimated that the recommendations would cost the city approximately $175 billion in the first year, and with an annual budget of nearly $14 billion, critics say the plan is indisputably unaffordable.
“This is a lot of unrealistic, pie in the sky promises,” Mr. Hall said. “It’s stuff that could never happen, and these people on the task committees know this.”
The state’s reparations committee outlined 115 recommendations across 13 categories in the weighty report it presented to lawmakers, but no specific dollar amounts were given for expected costs.
Experts say payments could equal up to $1.4 million for each qualifying applicant and costs to taxpayers could exceed $800 billion, while the state’s budget for the next fiscal year totals $312 billion.
“We’re looking at something that’s potentially twice as big of the budget. What happens if we’re forced to pay that out?” Mr. Hall said. “In the first year we’d do away with California, and you’re doing away with the goose that lays the golden egg. There will be no money left to pay for services, roads, policing, nothing.”
Critics of the plans say the fiscal impossibility of the proposals suggests they will not be approved.
“There’s no way you could pay the reparations they’re asking for and keep the country intact,” Mr. Hall told California Insider. “It’s a dream. It’s not going to happen.”
Therein lies a dilemma that could lead to social unrest, as millions of people are under the impression that they will receive some kind of handout, according to experts.
“You cannot promise something you can’t deliver. That’s wrong. That’s lying to people,” Mr. Hall said. “A lot of the poor black people are being misled; they’re being misguided. They’re going to revolt. They’re going to be upset.”
The legality of the proposals is also in question, with legal experts saying the laws would face intense judicial scrutiny at state and federal levels that could delay or prevent any payments from occurring.
Opponents argue the plans enable discrimination and should be subject to the same review as all other proposed laws.
“Something as stupid as color of skin has people arguing,” Mr. Hall said. “Nobody should be given preferential treatment because of the color of their skin. That’s discrimination. That’s exploitation.”
end
Devon Archer Spills The Beans: Tells Congress About Shady Burisma Dealings, Joe Biden’s “More Than 20” Conversations
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Hunter Biden’s former business partner Devon Archer has spilled the beans to Congress, telling lawmakers in a closed-door session that Burisma Holdings pressured Hunter Biden in December 2015 to ‘deal with’ a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the firm for corruption – shortly before then-VP Joe Biden threatened Ukraine with a quid-pro-quo over US aid in exchange for firing said prosecutor.
According to Just the News, Archer also told the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that Hunter Biden was hired to sit on the board of Burisma because his family’s “brand” had value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations from not only Ukraine’s own prosecutor general’s office, but the US and Great Britain as well.
“Devon Archer testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was ‘the brand’ and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to ‘the brand,'” an anonymous source told JTN. “Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for ‘the brand.”
Selling the brand
Archer also contradicted Joe Biden’s claims that he had never met with Hunter Biden’s foreign business associates – telling the committee that Joe Biden had gotten on speakerphone over 20 times with his son’s business clients – not to engage in specific business, but he “was put on the phone to sell ‘the brand.'”
The former business partner at the Rosemont Seneca firm, who was convicted in 2018 in a tribal bond fraud scheme, also told lawmakers that Hunter Biden was pressured in late 2015 to help deal with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin’s corruption investigation as Joe Biden was preparing to travel to Ukraine. -JTN
“In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin,” the source told JTN. “Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, ‘called D.C.’ to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call.”
A few days after that meeting, Joe Biden visited Ukraine as vice president and began an effort to force Ukraine’s president to fire Shokin, eventually threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if the termination did not happen. Biden’s defenders have long maintained the firing was not related to Burisma and was a result of U.S. policy because the Obama administration felt Shokin was corrupt.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed JTN‘s source, telling the Daily Caller: “The biggest significant thing that has come out so far is that we now have proof that Joe Biden lied. He’s been telling everyone for years now that he knows nothing about Hunter Biden’s business deals, that he’s never talked to his son about it. Well, this morning Devon Archer confirmed for all of us that that is not true.”
“He told us in his transcribed interview that he heard Hunter Biden speak to Joe Biden more than 20 times about their business deals. Not about anything else, but about the business deals,” she added.
Meanwhile, trust fund Democrat Dan Goldman (Schiff Jr.) continues to run cover…
And Democrats are of course starting to cry foul at the rules they themselves made during the Trump years…
END
Joe Biden Met With Moscow Mayor’s Wife Before $3.5 Million Wire To Hunter: Devon Archer
MONDAY, JUL 31, 2023 – 09:20 PM
While former Hunter Biden business partner Devon Archer spills the beans about Burisma, Joe, and the Biden family dealings, the Daily Mail revealed on Monday that Hunter Biden’s real estate firm received a $40 million investment from a Russian oligarch, Yelena Baturina, the billionaire widow of the former mayor of Moscow.
Baturina also wired $3.5 million to a Hunter-linked company, in what her brother, Viktor Baturin, tells the Daily Mail was “a payment to enter the American market.”
And which, as Devon Archer testified on Monday, kept her off the sanctions list.
DailyMail.com can now reveal that Hunter’s financial relationship with Baturina was far more extensive, with her firm investing $40million in a real estate venture by Hunter’s company Rosemont Realty.
In 2012 Hunter’s firm had a $69.7million plan to invest in 2.15million sq ft of office space in seven US cities.
Documents outlining the plan said the money came from a mix of investors, including $40million from Inteco Management AG, a Swiss company owned by Baturina.
The Inteco group is a plastics and construction behemoth that made Baturina the richest woman in Russia at the time. She has a current net worth of $1.4billion according to Forbes. -Daily Mail
Baturina wired the $3.5 million on February 14, 2014, when Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States. The wires were made in a series of payments to Rosemont Seneca Thornton LLC, for “Consultancy Agreement DD12.02.2014.”
The deal had been negotiated in 2012. In 2016, Baturina established a US office to oversee her US investments, and in 2016 she invested $10 million in commercial buildings near the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The payments were flagged in suspicious activity reports filed with the US Treasury Department.
Hunter’s lawyer, George Mesires (not the bong guy) has previously denied that the money went to Hunter.
“Hunter Biden had no interest in and was not a co-founder of Rosemont Seneca Thornton, so the claim that he was paid $3.5 million is false,” he told CNN in September 2020.
The emails came to the Daily Mail via the anti-corruption group, the Kazakhstani Initiative on Asset Recovery.
Now, we find from Devon Archer that Joe Biden met with Baturina in Georgetown before the $40 million investment, after which she was left off the Biden administration’s sanctions list.
And your daily reminder that Trump was impeached for simply asking about shady Biden family dealings.
END
Deception By Redaction: More FBI FISA Abuses, This Time Using Fake News In The Washington Post
The FBI’s efforts to mislead a federal court in order to wiretap an adviser to the Trump campaign were more extensive than previously reported, according to classified documents described to RealClearInvestigations.
FBI Director Christopher Wray just last month told Congress he has instituted reforms in response to FISA surveillance abuses, yet at the same time he appears to have tried to hide the full extent of those abuses under redactions.
The embattled bureau tried to hide its misconduct by redacting information about its actions under the guise that it involved sensitive intelligence information. RCI has learned that at least some of the redacted material, included in a “Classified Appendix” to Special Counsel John Durham’s final report, has nothing to do with protecting “sources and methods” and other “sensitive” investigative techniques.
Instead, it covers up additional improper behavior by the FBI brass, which initiated and signed off on all four of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act applications to spy on former Trump adviser Carter Page and his contacts within the Trump campaign and presidency in 2016 and 2017.
For example, the FBI tried to justify continuing to spy on Page in early 2017 by indicating to the secret FISA court that it had verified a rumor about Page receiving dirt on Hillary Clinton from the Russian government and facilitating a “well-developed conspiracy of cooperation” with the Kremlin to swing the 2016 election in Trump’s favor. But the bureau had corroborated no such thing. Its source was a front-page report in the Washington Post – one the newspaper later retracted after determining it was false, according to two former U.S. officials who have seen the original, unredacted FISA applications and described the passages to RCI.
The embarrassing revelation hasn’t been previously reported thanks to redactions blacking out references to the Washington Post article in the still-partially classified applications. The officials confirmed to RCI that the censored section covers up the FBI’s reliance on the bogus Post story, published in March 2017, as purported evidence supporting probable cause to continue spying on Trump’s former aide. In the sections of the FISA renewal applications blacking out references to the Post, the officials said, the FBI claimed the underlying text was “sensitive information.” The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss still-classified sections of the FISA warrant affidavits.
The FBI’s references to the Post story are contained in the April and June 2017 FISA applications. These applications were so tainted by bad information, politics, and glaring exculpatory omissions that after an inspector general’s probe, the Justice Department years later had to secretly concede to a federal surveillance court that they were “insufficient” to establish probable cause to spy on Page and therefore “were not valid”
FBI Director Christopher Wray recently told Congress he has instituted a number of reforms in response to the FISA surveillance abuses, yet at the same time, he appears to have tried to hide the full extent of those abuses under redactions.
An FBI spokeswoman said, “We decline comment on this matter.” Attempts to reach Durham, who has closed his office looking into FBI malfeasance, were unsuccessful.
This is not the only instance in which the FBI misrepresented unconfirmed news reports to secure authorization to spy on the Trump campaign. The bureau’s FISA applications also referenced a September 2016 Yahoo News account to substantiate the false claim that Page had met with Kremlin officials in Moscow during the presidential campaign.
That Yahoo article by Michael Isikoff said the allegations had been confirmed by a “well-placed Western intelligence source.” Isikoff later revealed that the source, former British intelligence agent Christopher Steele, had concocted the false allegation about Page in a series of now-debunked memos financed by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Hence, Steele was “corroborating” his own shoddy work. Instead of following the law and verifying this material before including it in the FISA application, the FBI simply repeated it as fact. In 2018, Isikoff said it was “a bit beyond me” why the bureau referenced his article.
The officials who spoke to RCI said the inclusion of the since-retracted Post story may be even more egregious because it was unsourced, which should have sent red flags flying at the FBI. Post reporters said a key source of the dossier’s allegations was a Belarusian-American businessman named Sergei Millian. The Post, however, provided no source for this blockbuster claim, which Millian vociferously denied.
The FBI’s reliance on the false Post story was “an act of desperation,” noted one of the officials. In late March 2017, he said the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane team investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia faced a dilemma. A court deadline to reapply for a warrant to spy on Page was fast approaching, and it still hadn’t verified the sourcing for the key “conspiracy” charge against him and the Trump campaign.
Moreover, agents had reason to be skeptical about the information, which formed the cornerstone of their case.
Over the previous two months, the FBI had conducted a series of interviews with Igor Danchenko, a Russia-born Washington-based researcher who helped compile Steele’s dossier of derogatory information about Trump’s alleged ties to Russia, including the core “conspiracy” assertion. During the debriefings, Danchenko confessed he couldn’t be sure his alleged source, Millian, actually told him what he attributed to him about Page in the dossier.
The FBI needed the explosive allegation to be true because it was the heart of the factual information supporting probable cause to electronically monitor Page as a supposed Russian collaborator under the authority of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The FISA law, initially enacted in 1978 and broadened in the aftermath of 9/11, is now under intense scrutiny on Capitol Hill in light of previously exposed FBI abuses of the congressionally granted surveillance power. The bureau included the information in earlier requests for wiretaps, but they were set to expire in early April 2017. To justify renewing them another 90 days, the FBI was under pressure to show FISA judges additional evidence to support its suspicions about Page. Validating Millian as the main source of the dossier was critical, but the agents had come up empty, developing no evidence that corroborated the allegations.
Just in time, the Washington Post published a story online on March 29, 2017, that supposedly “confirmed” Millian was the source of the allegations against Page and the core claim of a Trump-Kremlin conspiracy. The strangely unsourced article carried the headline, “Who is ‘Source D’? The man said to be behind the Trump-Russia dossier’s most salacious claim: The story of Sergei Millian.” The next day, the Post ran the same story on Page One of the paper, but under the headline: “Insider or opportunist? A wild card in Russia story: Businessman said to be source of spy dossier’s salacious claim about Trump.” The above-the-fold article appeared just eight days prior to the April 7 deadline the FBI faced to resubmit an application to the FISA court for a fresh warrant to secretly monitor Page.
In its April 7 affidavit requesting a renewal of the warrant, FBI headquarters advised the FISA court that the Post had confirmed that Millian was the source for the dossier’s allegation that the Kremlin was “feeding” the Trump campaign “very helpful” dirt on Clinton through Page. It also cited the article to buttress the dossier’s linchpin allegation of a “conspiracy of cooperation” between the Trump campaign and the Russian leadership, according to the two officials who have seen what is behind the blacked-out section of the sworn affidavit, which runs more than 100 pages. The references to the Post appear on page 22 of the FISA document.
As a result, the FISA court renewed the wiretaps. It approved them again on June 29, 2017, based in part on the same supposedly corroborative Washington Post article, according to the two officials, who have also seen the original, unredacted June application. On the strength of essentially fake news, surveillance court judges permitted the FBI to continue to vacuum up all of Page’s communications through Sept. 22, 2017.
The Post was forced to retract its story in November 2021 when Durham proved in a court filing that Danchenko had never actually spoken to Millian and simply invented him as his source — and therefore made up the “conspiracy” allegation and everything else he attributed to Millian. A week after Durham debunked the Millian hoax, Washington Post Executive Editor Sally Buzbee said the Post could no longer stand behind the accuracy of the story and ordered the newspaper to print a retraction.
But in 2017, the story served the FBI’s purposes, even as agents came to doubt the Millian sourcing because of Danchenko’s dissembling (yet, agents nonetheless swore to the FISA court that Danchenko had been “truthful and cooperative”). Headquarters had to hang on to the slim chance it could be true because the Millian-sourced allegations were central to their case for spying on the Trump campaign. Without them, the case would have collapsed. Former FBI officials say it’s highly unlikely the bureau would have been able to convince the spy court to continue to grant permission to monitor Page.
The FBI also relied on other allegations sourced to Millian as both “Source E” and “Source D” in the Steele dossier, including the made-up story that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a compromising sex tape of Trump cavorting with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel. The entire dossier turned out to be a series of invented rumors or outright fabrications that the FBI knew at the time were underwritten by the Hillary Clinton campaign as political opposition research.
FBI veterans who have sworn out affidavits for FISA wiretaps told RCI they have never known the bureau to cite media stories as evidence to corroborate leads or support probable cause to obtain such all-invasive warrants from the spy court.
“Absolutely not,” said former assistant FBI Director Chris Swecker. “I signed scores of FISA orders as they moved up the chain of command from the field office up to headquarters for final approval. None of them included that type of information, which is absolutely malpractice and incompetence, or worse.”
“Never, ever, ever,” added 27-year FBI veteran special agent Michael Biasello. “The FISA verification process known as the Woods Procedures was created to eliminate this problem, but [then-FBI Director James] Comey’s hand-picked bunch at headquarters did not follow them. They were a bunch of arrogant investigators relying on erroneous and tainted information from Washington reporters rather than a traditional, responsible investigation gathering the facts.”
Biasello said resorting to using such a murky newspaper story to backstop the main thrust of the FBI’s surveillance case suggests its case was more of a political fishing expedition than a legitimate national security matter. He added that the FBI and DOJ are now trying to cover up the full breadth of their FISA scandal through unjustified redactions and classifications.
The FBI and DOJ refuse to fully declassify the documents, which Senate Republicans managed to release to the public in 2020, albeit with large sections blacked out. Whole pages of the renewal applications remain secret, even though the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court invalidated the warrants in the wake of a scathing 2019 inspector’s general report. The IG found the spy warrants were based on allegations fabricated by Clinton-funded researchers and had omitted exculpatory information proving the innocence of Page, a former U.S. Navy lieutenant, whom the FBI knew was working for U.S., not Russian, intelligence.
Special Counsel Durham did not uncover what’s lurking beneath the FISA redactions in a recently released report of his four-year criminal investigation of FBI misconduct in the Russiagate probe. He explained that because of the “sensitive and classified nature” of certain “portions” of the FISA applications, he was compelled to discuss them only in a Classified Appendix to the report. He said the classification effort was “coordinated” with the FBI.
In other words, much of the FBI’s wrongdoing remains shielded from public view.
Unusual Handling by Washington Post
The way the Post corrected its story was highly unusual.
Instead of appending a correction, the paper, which won a Pulitzer Prize for its Trump-Russia reporting, removed all references to Millian as the dossier’s source in online and archived versions of the original article, including all citations cataloged in the Lexis-Nexis database of news articles. It also took down a video that accompanied the story. The paper then reposted a new article with a different headline – “Sergei Millian: High-level access to Trump or unwitting bystander?” – but under the same bylines of Tom Hamburger and Rosalind Helderman, who shared the controversial 2018 Pulitzer (although the Millian article was not part of its entry).
The new version of the story contains an “Editor’s Note” noting the date when the original was published, but oddly, it does not link to it. In a story the Post ran reporting on its “unusual step of correcting and removing large portions” of the article, it also failed to link to the original version of the article and only linked to the retooled one. The original version has been scrubbed from Google and Twitter.
Journalism historians say they are not aware of another major newspaper making wholesale changes to a story four years afterward and republishing an edited version of the story.
In a statement to RCI, a spokeswoman for the Post shrugged off criticism. “The Post handled this correction with complete transparency,” said Kathy Baird, the paper’s chief communications officer. “As you can see in the Editor’s Note, portions of the story and an accompanying video were removed and the headline was changed,” she added. “This is consistent with the principles and practices we follow when issuing corrections for our readers so that all published information is up-to-date and accurate.”
Another curious aspect of the story is how it got through Post editors without any sourcing or attribution. Normally such a sensitive story, which potentially libeled Millian, would require intense scrutiny, if not a legal review.
Millian shared emails with RCI showing he tried to steer the Post reporters off the story, insisting it was “a vicious lie” and a smear campaign against him and the incoming Republican president. But the newspaper nonetheless reported he was the source for the most explosive parts of the dossier and never printed his rebuttals at length after reaching out to him by email. The Post did note that Millian denied in a Russian TV interview having “any compromising information” about Trump, and that Trump aides “vehemently” rejected claims Millian had close ties to Trump. (The Post’s description ‒ “vehemently” ‒ appears in the FBI’s application, the two officials told RCI, but the word is hidden under a redaction, the only word blacked out in the sentence. There is no explanation provided for censoring “vehemently” in the document, but the officials posit the FBI was worried it would too easily connect to the Post story if left unredacted.)
“The liberal press never printed my statements,” Millian said. “They all just went along with Steele’s lies.” After the Post story ran, Millian said he demanded retractions from the paper, arguing its article was “reckless” and “defamatory,” but the Post refused to retract it or run a correction or clarification until November 2021, when Durham exposed the lies in an indictment.
After I demanded the Washington Post to retract, they informed me that they believe their source and will not delete the story,” he added. “I asked who is their source? They did not answer who.”
Whoever it was, the Post had great faith in it and felt confident enough in its authority to run a story without citing any sources to back up its supposed scoop that Millian was behind the most explosive claims in the dossier.
Did it come from the FBI or officials working with the FBI? Again, the Post and FBI are mum. “We do not disclose information on our sources,” the Post’s Baird said. However, the Post was talking to federal investigators at the time.
On April 11, 2017, just four days after the FISA warrant was re-approved, the Post broke the story about the FBI surveilling Page under the headline, “FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor former Trump adviser Carter Page,” and attributed the story to “law enforcement and other U.S. officials.” It added: “This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump associate was in touch with Russian agents,” helping the FBI justify its unprecedented investigation of the Trump campaign.
Current FBI Director Wray has said the bureau “regrets the errors and omissions” in the FISA applications, and he has promised to reform how agents seek such warrants under the spy program. In the meantime, Wray has been lobbying Congress to renew FISA authority before it expires at the end of the year, arguing it’s a critical tool for protecting Americans from foreign terrorists and spies.
Comey: Applications ‘as Thick as My Wrist’
But critics on the Hill warn the FBI is also using the tool for political purposes.
Lawmakers note the FBI knew it was highly unlikely that Page could be a threat to national security because he had previously helped its counterintelligence agents capture and imprison a real spy from Russia. Page even helped the CIA monitor Russia. The FBI withheld from the court Page’s history of cooperating with U.S. intelligence ‒ and even illegally doctored a CIA email to show otherwise. So why the apparent frame-up? Internal text messages suggest key headquarters officials pushing for the FISA wiretaps, including the official who led the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, Peter Strzok, were biased against Trump and were motivated to “stop” him from becoming president. They also developed an “insurance policy” in case he won. Maintaining wiretaps that would allow headquarters to eavesdrop on political communications well into Trump’s presidency might have been part of that policy.
Civil libertarians say FISA judges can be easily manipulated by politically biased or corrupt agents because of the special way the court is set up.
The powerful Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court that authorizes the FBI to intercept the communications of suspected threats – including U.S. citizens like Page – is highly secretive and opaque. Unlike other federal courts, it lets agents petition judges to monitor targets without defense lawyers present. So FISA court judges hear only the government’s side of the case, inviting the kinds of abuses witnessed in the Trump probe.
Page was never charged with espionage or any crime. He told RCI that he has received “numerous death threats that directly resulted from the false allegations” that he was a traitor.
The FBI would not say if it has sequestered the 11 months of intercepts it collected from Page so agents cannot misuse the private information.
Wray’s predecessor, James Comey, approved the first three FISA warrant applications to spy on Page before he was fired by President Trump in May 2017. Speaking at an FBI conference just five months before he okayed the initial October 2016 FISA application, Comey claimed he took great pains to avoid abusing such surveillance powers.
“Every morning I review the stack of requests that we’re about to send to the federal court to seek permission to wiretap people ‒ for a limited period of time ‒ in our national security investigations,” Comey said in May 2016. “Those applications are often as thick as my wrist or thicker. It is a huge pain in the neck to get permission to bug somebody in the United States, and that’s the way it should be. That’s constraint. That’s oversight. That’s power being checked.”
END
House GOP Launch Probe Into Hunter Biden’s Absurd Plea Deal
TUESDAY, AUG 01, 2023 – 01:50 PM
House Republicans have launched an investigation into Hunter Biden’s sweetheart plea deal from his father’s Justice Department, which was so egregious that a judge sent it back to the drawing board.
According to the Washington Times, the House committees conducting a probe into the agreement say parts of it were “atypical” to the point where the lead federal prosecutor was forced to admit under questioning that there was no precedent for this type of arrangement.
‘Odd’ features of the deal include a provision which gave Hunter immunity from future prosecutions on crimes beyond the scope of the current case. Another provision limits the government’s ability to prosecute Hunter, should he violate the terms of the deal.
Last week US District Judge Maryellen Noreika said she was not ready to accept the plea deal, and asked both sides to file additional briefs explaining the legal structure of the revised deal.
“I don’t really understand the scope” of the agreement, Noreika said, noting that the younger Biden has had numerous foreign business dealings. At one point, she raised a hypothetical as to whether Biden could be charged as acting as an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, per Bloomberg.
Under the original plea agreement, Biden intended to plea guilty to two misdemeanor tax crimes committed in 2017 and 2018, and would avoid prison on the gun possession charge.
As part of the conditions for Hunter’s release, he must not consume alcohol or prohibited drugs, or possess a firearm, must submit to random drug tests as required, must actively seek employment and not violate any laws.
In a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the GOP committee chairmen demanded to know how Hunter’s bizarre arrangement was reached, and whether it was the DOJ or Biden’s lawyers who first suggested it.
The Department’s unusual plea and pretrial diversion agreements with Mr. Biden raise serious concerns — especially when combined with recent whistleblower allegations — that the Department has provided preferential treatment toward President Biden‘s son in the course of its investigation and proposed resolution of his alleged criminal conduct,” wrote Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith and Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer. -Washington Examiner
As noted by attorneyTechno Fog via The Reactionary, the prosecutors handling the Hunter Biden case have gone way harder against other suspects for the same crimes:
…it’s important to understand who we’re dealing with. Leo Wise is a trial attorney in the DOJ Criminal Division – Public Integrity Section. He has held that position since June of 2023; prior to that, he was the Chief of the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Maryland’s Fraud and Public corruption unit (a position from which he was demoted after disagreements with supervisors over staffing). He has been with the DOJ since at least 2004.
By all accounts, Wise is an aggressive prosecutor. It’s in his DNA. He was part of the Enron Task Force, assisted in the racketeering trial against big tobacco (US v. Philip Morris), and prosecuted significant high-profile cases against corrupt leadership in Baltimore, including the Baltimore Police Gun Trace Task Force, former Baltimore mayor Catherine Pugh, and former Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby. Wise also “brought the biggest racketeering case in Maryland history.”
Assisting Wise on the Hunter Biden case is Derek Hines, an equally aggressive prosecutor whose current role is Assistant US Attorney at the DOJ Criminal Division. Hines, for example, was part of Wise’s prosecution team in the Baltimore Police Gun Trace Task Force, which “won indictments against 11 men – eight Baltimore cops, two civilians, and one Philadelphia office” who robbed drug dealers, sold drugs, and ran interference for drug dealers.
Wise and Hines have been described in one Baltimore Sun article as relentless prosecutors who “are like the terminator.” They are hardliners who “pursue stern sentences and prosecute even small-time crooks.
The Hunter Biden case isn’t the first time Wise and Hines have prosecuted a tax case. Back in 2018, they prosecuted Darryl De Sousa, a former Baltimore Police Commissioner for three counts of failing to file individual tax returns. The case of De Sousa is particularly instructive, as it demonstrates the uncharacteristicallysoft prosecution of Hunter Biden by Wise and Hines. Allow us to explain.
De Sousa was charged with failing to file an income tax return for the years 2013-2015, in violation of 26 USC § 7203. Not only had he failed to file income tax returns for those years, but De Sousa had also owed the IRS taxes for other years (2008-2012) and had “falsely claimed deductions that he was not entitled to.”
The De Sousa case was relatively small, though it did concern misconduct by a public official. He only owed approximately $60,000; the tax loss calculated by the IRS was between $40,000 and $100,000. De Sousa pleaded guilty to failing to file an income tax for the years 2013-2015. DOJ prosecutors Wise and Hines (who, by the way, both served under currently Special Counsel Robert K. Hur when he was US Attorney for the District of Maryland) saw to it that the stipulation of facts included in the November 20, 2018 plea agreement itemized (1) the false deductions claimed by De Sousa, such as vehicle expenses and travel expenses and charitable donations; (2) the specific times De Sousa was put on notice that he owed taxes; and (3) the specific amounts owed by De Sousa in each of the applicable years.
Wise and Hines, true to their reputations, demanded De Sousa go to prison: 12 months incarceration was necessary to send a message to all other tax cheats. There was no promise to recommend probation. The judge would end up sentencing De Sousa to 10 months.
Let’s compare De Sousa’s treatment to the Hunter Biden case.
Both cases involve violations of 26 USC § 7203 (willful failure to pay tax).
The tax loss in the De Sousa case was between $40,000 and $100,000; Wise and Hines recommended he serve a year in prison. The tax loss in the Hunter Biden case is between $1,199,524 and $1,593,329. Wise and Hines, in apparent agreement with DOJ supervisors, recommend Hunter get probation.
Where Wise and Hines made sure the Court was aware of the numerous false deductions in the De Sousa Case, Wise and Hines agree that Hunter Biden’s more significant deductions for sex clubs and prostitutes was because Hunter “miscategorized certain personal expenses as legitimate business expenses.” In doing so, these prosecutors have allowed felony fraud to be excused as a mis-categorization.
In fact, Wise and Hines omitted a discussion of the facts underlying many of the charges recommended by the IRS Tax Division, including those involving fraud (26 USC § 7206). De Sousa never received that benefit – likely because De Sousa, unlike Biden, wasn’t allowed to write his own stipulation.
Wise and Hines agreed to the claim that Hunter Biden received $1,000,000 from Patrick Ho (a Chinese national convicted for bribery) “as a payment for legal fees” – without even thinking to question whether that payment was a bribe masked as legal fees.
Wise and Hines failed to inform the Court of whether Hunter Biden owed California income taxes. In the De Sousa case, that defendant’s outstanding Maryland tax obligations were listed for a number of years and he was required to pay restitution to Maryland.
De Sousa’s plea deal was standard and readily accepted by that court. The Hunter Biden plea/diversion was “unprecedented” and abnormal and without “authority”, contained ambiguous paragraphs that could have allowed Hunter to avoid any type of FARA prosecution, and the diversion itself is probably unconstitutional.
If we can briefly summarize – in the De Sousa case, DOJ prosecutors Wise and Hines wanted to send a message that you get a harsh sentence if you try to avoid your taxes. The DOJ, assisted by Wise and Hines, now sends a different message in the Hunter Biden case: the son of the President gets preferential treatment. More egregious tax crimes are no longer subject to imprisonment.
Barring shocking revelations, DOJ “terminators” Leo Wise and Derek Hines, the prosecutors who in the past pursued “stern sentences”, the two men who made their names in the Department by taking down notorious targets, are now doing all they can – from misrepresenting Hunter’s conduct to the Court to omitting key details of Hunter’s tax fraud – to make sure the President’s son doesn’t even get a slap on the wrist.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report August 1, 2023 Issue 7044
Independent View of the News
Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled JBG monetization on Monday (Sunday night in US) after JGBs hit a 9-year high yield of 0.605%. The BoJ offered to buy ¥300.0B of 5yr. to 10-yr. JGBs.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee remarks on Monday morningI am open to reading the data. I have not made up my mind of September.Services inflation is stickiest; but I have seen a nice bonus of some progress there.The normal rules of direct tradeoff between inflation and the labor market do not apply.The Phillips Curve is broken. (Yep, it blew up in the Eighties when employment soared and inflation collapsed.) Defensive asset allocators appeared on Monday and thwarted the Monday rally and the July performance gaming manipulation – until the afternoon arrived.
ESUs rallied during early Nikkei trading on July performance gaming and the BoJ intervention. The peak appeared at 18:40 ET. ESUs then sank until midnight ET. ESUs and Japanese stocks could only muster a modest rally into the close to end July.
After the Nikkei closed, traders got real about pushing ESUs and stocks higher. ESUs rallied to the daily high of 4619.25 at 9:44 ET. Defensive asset allocators then took control. Astute traders recognized the presence of large equity/ESU sellers and jettisoned their ESUs and stocks.
ESUs and stocks sank until 13:00 ET. The usual suspects only had two hours to manipulate their holdings higher to game July performance. The rally was modest and it ended at 14:56 ET. ESUs and stocks sank until 15:50 ET. Someone then manipulated ESUs 20.00 by the close. Where is the SEC?
From Monday’s King Report: Will Mr. Bond thwart the expected equity rally?
Positive aspects of previous session US stocks rebounded during the afternoon and during the final 10 minutes of trading Gasoline declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session USUs soared from 123 26/32 near the European opening to 124 28/32 at 13:04 ET on asset allocation When the defensive asset allocation ended, USUs sank to 124 12/32 near 15:00 ET Gold and Oil rallied
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Has the CPI trough for 2023 appeared? Mr. Bond seems to think so!
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4585.44 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4594.22; 4573.14
Today – After being stymied in their quest to manipulate stocks higher to game July performance, traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside and the standard rally to start the month.
ESUs are +2.25 and USUs are +1/32 at 20:50 ET in quiet trading. Will Mr. Bond thwart the expected equity rally? The key for today could be defensive asset allocators. Astute traders will try to gauge their presence ASAP so they can plan and execute their tactics for the day.
Expected economic data: July S&P Global US Mfg PMI 49; July ISM Mfg 46.9, Prices Paid 43; June Construction Spending 0.6% m/m; July Ward Vehicle Sales 15.7m; Chgo Fed (dove) Goolsbee 10 ET
Expected earnings: CAT 4.54, MRK -2.20, MPC 4.58, ROK 3.18, MO 1.30, PFE .59, PRU 3.01
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4380; 100-day MA: 4222; 150-day MA: 4146; 200-day MA: 4079 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,109; 100-day MA: 33,632; 150-day MA: 33,598; 200-day MA: 33,401 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4381.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4510.37 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close below 4591.83 triggers a buy signal
In coming weeks, the markets will have to digest a Biden impeachment (maybe Garland, Wray, et al) and the consequences of Kamala Harris as POTUS.
@kylenabecker: Devon Archer just testified that Joe Biden met with the Moscow mayor’s billionaire wife Elena Baturina in spring 2014 before she wired $3.5 million to Hunter Biden. Baturina is the same Russian oligarch the Biden regime refused to sanction. If you are looking for how the Biden family’s corruption compromises U.S. national security, look no further. This is real Russian collusion.
@GOPoversight: Archer’s testimony confirms Joe Biden lied to the American people when he said he had no knowledge about his son’s business dealings and was not involved… Archer confirmed Joe Biden was referred to as “my guy” by Hunter Biden… In 2014, then-VP Biden attended a business dinner with Hunter & his associates at Café Milano in D.C. Elena Baturina, a Russian oligarch who is the widow of the former mayor of Moscow, was an attendee. Notably, the Biden Admin’s public sanctions do not contain Baturina. (Long thread at link) https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1686109950173425665
NY Post’s @mirandadevine: Devon Archer’s testimony today is bombshell: Hunter Biden’s ex BFF testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was “the brand” and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to “the brand.” Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for “the brand.” In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin. Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, “called D.C.” to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call. Devon Archer testified that Hunter Biden put then-Vice President Joe Biden on the speakerphone during business meetings, over 20 times. Archer testified that Joe Biden was put on the phone to sell “the brand.” These phone calls include a dinner in Paris with a French energy company and in China with Jonathan Li of BHR. In spring of 2014, then-Vice President Joe Biden attended a business dinner with his son, Hunter, and his associates at Café Milano in Washington, D.C. Elena Baturina, a Russian oligarch who is the widow of the former mayor of Moscow, attended the dinner. Notably, the Biden Administration’s public sanctions list for Russian oligarchs does not contain Baturina…
@LarryOConnor: Understand this: Hunter getting Joe on speakerphone WAS THE DELIVERABLE. It literally doesn’t matter what was discussed.Showing that he could get the Vice President of the United States on the phone was all Hunter had to show his clients to seal the deal. He was selling ACCESS not policy. Getting The Big Guy to pick up the phone demonstrated his ability to deliver that access. Case closed. Impeach.
Law Professor Jonathan Turley: “What we now know, quite frankly, is that the President has been lying…I think this is shaping up to be one of the greatest corruption scandals in the history of Washington, and that is saying a lot.” https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1686127053958225920
@dbongino: This is certainly the lowest, most disgusting thing I’ve seen in politics. And with the scum we have in office, that’s saying a lot. Human trash pile Dan Goldman, and the democrats, invoking the death of Beau Biden to explain the Biden crime family’s corrupt dealings is an abomination to humankind. These people are a disgrace to the human species. Disgusting garbage people.
@themarketswork: First it was, “Joe never talked to Hunter about his business.” Then it became, “Joe never talked to Hunter’s business partners.“ Now: “Joe talked extensively with them all – but just about the weather.” This is headed directly to the place we always knew it would go.
What did Obama know about his VP’s corruption and influence peddling?
Daily Mail EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden told judge under oath that he was a member of the Connecticut bar in good standing – but he was SUSPENDED two years ago for failure to pay feesHunter Biden told Delaware district judge Maryellen Noreika that he was eligible to practice law in Washington, D.C. and ConnecticutDailyMail.com can reveal Hunter was suspended from practicing law in the Nutmeg State more than two years ago for failing to pay his $75 annual feesA former Connecticut state legislator called Hunter’s statement to the judge ‘extraordinary’ adding that he ‘misled the court’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12356755/Hunter-Biden-told-judge-oath-member-Connecticut-bar-good-standing-SUSPENDED-two-years-failure-pay-fees.html @TomFitton: Of course Hunter is an unregistered foreign agent. A federal judge effectively exposed that with one question up in Delaware today.
Hunter Biden told Devon Archer they would get ‘last laugh’ after conviction was thrown outers’ Biden praises Archer in emails, calls him ‘great friend through thick and thin’ in 2014 email ‘SWEAR TO GOD’: Hunter Biden told his longtime friend, Devon Archer, they would get the “last laugh” after Archer said a judge threw out his conviction, according to 2018 text messages reviewed by Fox News Digital… https://t.co/libUr2dsw2
On Sunday night, due to pressure, opprobrium, and ridicule, the Biden DoJ backtracked on trying to prevent Hunter’s business partner from testifying to House members: “The Government does not request (and never has requested) that the defendant surrender before his Congressional testimony… the Government requests that any surrender order… be scheduled to occur after the defendant’s Congressional testimony is completed.” https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1685816293486739456/photo/1
Breitbart’s John Hayward @Doc_0: The Hunter Biden saga illuminates the Biden family’s rapacious corruption, and even worse, the corruption of federal agencies to protect them. Also, it’s further evidence that we must shatter the elite bubble and force them to live in the America they made for the rest of us. The corruption angle is huge, arguably the story of the century in American politics. Socialists claim they can create an all-knowing mega-government run by honest, selfless geniuses – but what they always deliver is a corrupt sewer state run by greedy mediocrities… There are no big, honest governments, and every one of the many, many embarrassing tales of mega-corruption must be spotlighted to keep proving it, over and over again. The most important goal of civic reform today is shattering the pernicious illusion of Honest Big Government. Hunter Biden is an absolutely perfect example of what socialism actually delivers: a privileged elite of boundless greed and degenerate morality, milking cash out of the trillion-dollar state by peddling influence and selling protection, insulated from all legal consequences… Big Biz had long been a paying customer for political corruption. Under fascism, Big Biz becomes a junior partner instead of just a customer. It gets drafted into the ruling Party’s political crusades…
@RNCResearch: Biden says “being there” for his grandkids “is important and makes such a difference.” https://t.co/bKXwBpR3u2
NBC News: Inside the online world of people who think they can change their race Subliminals, which are audio files or videos intended to evoke certain outcomes… emerged as part of a larger trend in which people hope to manifest changes and bend reality to achieve certain goals… Tiq Milan, a Black transgender activist and writer, said it is a disservice to transgender people to compare the two. Race historically emerged as a social construct to establish a racial hierarchy with the white race at the top, whereas variances in gender identity have existed for thousands of years, he said… (This so insanely mad, you wonder why NBC published it!) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/race-change-to-another-trend-online-rcna93759
GOP Presidential Candidate @VivekGRamaswamy: True “privilege” is not based on the color of your skin. It’s being raised in a stable family with two parents with a focus on education and a faith in God. That’s the ultimate “privilege.”
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
harveyorganblog.com 
