Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz gram kilo tola

AM1973.83

PM1975.07

Historical SGE Fix

New York price at the time: 1933.00

premium $40.00

Shanghai again never saw the raid .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Bitcoin morning price:, $29174 DOWN 39 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,094 DOWN 119 dollars

Platinum price closing $925.45 UP $7.25

Palladium price; $1268,45 UP $8.40

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,598.30 UP 15.10 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1523.44 UP 1.00 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1764.18 DOWN 3.38 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,932.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/03/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 08/07/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 299
104 C MIZUHO 557
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 1
152 C DORMAN TRADING 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 162
323 C HSBC 12
323 H HSBC 100
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 66
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 112
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 10
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 189
661 C JP MORGAN 29 408
690 C ABN AMRO 4
709 C BARCLAYS 29
737 C ADVANTAGE 13

TOTAL: 996 996

JPMorgan stopped 468/7746 contracts.

FOR AUGUST:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 996 NOTICES FOR 99,600 OZ or 3.0773 TONNES

total notices so far: 7746 contracts for 774,600 oz (20.995 tonnes)

FOR AUGUST:

SILVER NOTICES: 34 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 170,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 788 for 3,940,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7,25

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD///

INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 1 CENT AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 448.987 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3578 CONTRACTS TO 137,515 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1847 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 1847 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF ANY SILVER CONTRACTS AS DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX CONTRACTS, THE ENTIRE LOSS WAS THE USE OF T.A.S. TO LOWER THE SILVER PRICE.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2760 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 180,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING RISES AT 3.950 MILLION OZ + OUR NEW CRIMINAL 1,250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.25 MILLION OZ/ NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 5.20 MILLION OZ/// // // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (1847 CONTRACTS)/HUGE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED (1.25 MILLION OZ OR 250 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –10 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 3947 contracts: OR 19.735 MILLION OZ (986 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 19.735 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 19.735 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3578 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2760 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 180,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 3.95 MILLION OZ+ 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW TOTALS 5.20 MILLION OZ//// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 818 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1847//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION//RAID . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (1847) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./

WE HAD 34 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 170,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 4017 CONTRACTS TO 435,395 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 296 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4017 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $5.25 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP + PRIOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = (.684 TONNES) //NEW STANDING 31.150 TONNES + .684 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 31.8342/ + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1528 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $5.25 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 853 OI CONTRACTS (2.684 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3154 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 435,395

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 853 CONTRACTS WITH 4017 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 3154 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 853 CONTRACTS OR 2.684 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1541 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3154 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4017) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 853 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 31.150 TONNES + .684 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR) NEW TOTALS: 31.8342 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1541 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 13,782 CONTRACTS OR 1,379,200 OZ OR 42.898 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3448 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 42.898 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 42.898/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 42.898 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3578 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,515 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A HUMONGOUS 2760 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 2260 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2760 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3578 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2760 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 818 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 4.090 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.16 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7,62 PTS OR 0.23% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 118.59 PTS OR 0.61% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 33.47 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1862 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1936 /Oil UP TO 81.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.38 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 4017 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 435,395 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.25 ON THURSDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3154 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3154 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3154 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 853 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3154 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 4017 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.25//THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1541 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (31.436) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 31.436 TONNES (INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $5.25) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 853 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF WHICH CAME FROM T.A.S. LIQUIDATION. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 2.684 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 31.150 TONNES + .6842 (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK) //NEW TOTAL 31.8352 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.25.

WE HAD – REMOVED 296 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 853 CONTRACTS OR 85300 OZ OR 2.684 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 140,607 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday 181,519 poor

//AUGUST 4/ FOR THE AUGUST 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	NIL .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	996 notice(s) 99,600 OZ 3.0773 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	2269 contracts 226,900 oz 7.0575 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	7746 notices 774,600 OZ 24.0933 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total customer deposits: NIL oz

we had NIL customer withdrawals

Adjustments; 0 /

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 3265 contracts having GAINED 84 contracts. We had 44 contracts filed

on Thursday, so we gained 128 contracts or an additional 12,800 oz will stand at the comex

Sept gained 52 contracts to 2472.

Oct lost 428 contracts to 33,584 contracts.

We had 996 contracts filed for today representing 99,600 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 29 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 996 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 458 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7746 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (3265 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 996 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,001,500 OZ OR 31.8342 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST. + .684 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 31.8342 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (7746) x 100 oz + (3265) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (996) x 100 oz) which equals 1,001,500 oz standing OR 30.752 TONNES + .684 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 31.8342 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 31.8342 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,058,278.651 OZ 64.02 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,202,871.168 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,102,270.124 (376,43 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,100,601.044 O Z

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,050,880 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 313.62 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

AUGUST4

//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	NIL .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	N/A oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	302,302.770 oz DELAWARE LOOOMIS
No of oz served today (contracts)	34 CONTRACT(S) (170,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	2 contracts (10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	788 Contracts (3,940,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 deposits customer account:

i) Into Delaware: 1979.970 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 300,322.800 oz

total customer deposits: 302,302.770 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.910 million oz/281.947 million =49.64% of comex .//

Comex withdrawals 0

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.692 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 281.947 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 36 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 29 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD

7 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 36 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 180,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 7492 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 98,652

OCT GAINED 16 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 86.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 170,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 64,929 fair /

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 83,729 strong

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 788 x 5,000 oz = 3,940,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (36) and the number of notices served upon today 34 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 788 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (36) – number of notices served upon today (34 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.950 million oz.+ 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TODAY//NEW TOTALS: 5.200 MILLION

There are 31.54 million oz of registered silver.

thus if we take today’s standing at 5.20 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 36.100 million oz against only 31.5 million registered silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///VENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES

JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES

JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.

JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES

JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 906.00 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ

JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//

JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 448.987 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

They finally admit: by revaluing gold they can regain their solvency. Question: what about those huge derivatives the bankers placed on gold and silver?

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Central banks admit they can regain solvency with gold revaluation

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-08-03 20:55Section: Daily Dispatches

9p ET Thursday, August 3, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold market researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs notes today that some European central banks, particularly the Geman Bundesbank, openly acknowledge that national gold reserves, as registered in central bank gold revaluation accounts, are capable of restoring a central bank’s solvency against any and all losses from their holdings of government bonds.

That is, for central banks with gold reserves, revaluing gold upward is a powerful mechanism of money creation — and of currency and debt devaluation (call it repudiation if you’d like) — and central banks with balance sheets showing losses may eventually be on the same side of the market as gold investors, and indeed already may be surreptitiously, as they are surreptitious in most important things they do.

This is essentially what the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance wrote in a study brought to your attention by GATA 11 years ago —

https://www.gata.org/node/11373

— and what the Scottish economist Peter Millar wrote in a study brought to your attention by GATA 16 years ago:

https://www.gata.org/node/4843

Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “German Central Bank:Gold Revaluation Account Underlies Soundness of Balance Sheet” and it’s posted at the Gainesville Coins internet site here:

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/german-central-bank-gold-revaluation-account-underlines-soundness-balance-sheet

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Russia to resume currency and gold to support the Rouble.

(Bloomberg)

Russia to resume buying currency and gold as energy income revives

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-08-03 19:15Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 3, 2023

Russia will start buying foreign currency and gold as a recovery in energy revenue brought it above the target set in the budget.

The Finance Ministry said today it will purchase 40.5 billion rubles ($433 million) during the Aug. 7-Sept. 6 period under a budgetary mechanism designed to insulate the economy from the volatility of commodity markets.

Since purchases were halted in late January 2022, followed by the program’s suspension after the invasion of Ukraine the following month, the Finance Ministry has only sold foreign currency this year as part of the revamped fiscal mechanism. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-03/russia-to-restart-buying-currency-gold-as-energy-income-revives

END

Your weekend reading material

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Gold is replacing the dollar

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-08-03 12:06Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, August 3, 2023

Financial developments in the Russian and Chinese axis are being generally ignored. The confirmation by Russia that a trade settlement currency for an expanded BRICS group is on the agenda at the Johannesburg summit this month has barely been reported, and even sound money advocates are highly sceptical.

But all will be revealed in three weeks. Meanwhile this article looks at how gold standards could return in the wake of a new gold-backed trade-settlement currency, if that is what emerges, using the currency board model as a template.

This is followed by an explanation of why gold reserves must cover the bank note issue.

I assess the cover afforded to both the rouble and the renminbi, incorporating assumed levels of non-reserve gold bullion held by both Russia and China. The conclusion is that both nations have ample cover to implement proper gold standards — and that gives the opportunity for other allied nations to implement currency boards with the renminbi.

The availability of above-ground gold stocks to support a global retreat from fiat currencies back to the stability of legal money — gold — is then addressed.

The conclusion is that with bullion having migrated in vast quantities from the West to the East in recent decades, there is a deficit for the fiat-committed Western alliance and nations in its sphere of influence to back their own currencies. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold-is-replacing-the-dollar?gmrefcode=gata

* * *

END

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER

Good reasons why gold will replace treasuries as the ultimate store of value

(Nick Giamburno/International Man)

9 Reasons Why Gold Will Soon Replace Treasuries As The Ultimate Store-Of-Value Asset

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

In the age of fiat currency, the distinct concepts of saving and investing have become conflated and confused.

Saving is producing more than you consume and then setting it the difference aside.

Investing is allocating capital to a productive business to create more wealth. Investing has more risk—and potential reward—than saving.

Today, however, what most people think of as saving is actually investing.

That’s because most people take the excess of their production over consumption and put it into the stock or bond market.

Most people understand that it’s not optimal to simply hold fiat currency, which the central banks continuously debase. So they put their money into other assets, primarily bonds and stocks.

In other words, fiat currency and inflation have ruined saving for most people. It has forced them further down the risk curve into stocks, bonds, and other investments in a struggle to maintain their purchasing power.

However, there is no guarantee those investments will even keep up with inflation. But suppose they do. They will then be subject to a capital gains tax, even if it’s only a nominal gain, not a real one.

That means savers face the daunting task of not only keeping up with inflation but also outpacing the capital gains tax on the nominal gain just to maintain their purchasing power.

That’s made saving an impossible task for most.

Before the era of easy-to-produce fiat currency, people could simply save in money, which was either gold or a derivation of it.

There was no need for a dentist, construction worker, or taxi driver also to become a hedge fund manager to try to keep their head above water.

That’s how the fiat era monetized stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets that wouldn’t have otherwise been.

For example, 50 years ago, the market cap of all the gold in the world was roughly equal to the market cap of all the stocks in the world. Today, the market cap of gold is about 10% of the world’s equities.

It’s an indication of how capital that used to be allocated to saving in gold became allocated to the stock market instead.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t a legitimate place for stocks, bonds, and real estate—there certainly is. It’s just that people would use them for investing—or, in the case of real estate, its utility value—and not as savings vehicles.

Bonds in general and Treasuries in particular, became the “go-to” savings vehicles to store wealth in the fiat era.

However, I think that will change soon as bonds will be incapable of storing value in the face of financial repression.

With 2022 being the worst year for Treasuries in American history, the shift away from bonds has probably already begun.

That means a lot of the capital parked in bonds will be looking for a new home that functions as a better store of value.

Gold: Make Saving Great Again

Gold has been mankind’s most enduring store-of-value asset because of its unique characteristics.

Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most importantly, the “hardest” of all physical commodities.

In other words, gold is the one physical commodity that is the “hardest to produce” (relative to existing stockpiles) and, therefore, the most resistant to debasement.

Gold is indestructible, and its stockpiles have built up over thousands of years. That’s a big reason why the new annual gold supply growth—typically 1-2% per year—is insignificant.

In other words, nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply. That makes gold an excellent store of value and gives the yellow metal its superior monetary properties.

People in every country of the world value gold. Its worth doesn’t depend on any government or any counterparty at all. Gold has always been an inherently international and politically neutral asset. This is why different civilizations worldwide have used gold to store value for millennia.

From a historical point of view, using government bonds as a savings vehicle is a relatively new concept. As it fades, I expect people will rediscover the world’s premier store-of-value asset: gold.

It’s already starting to happen in a big way…

Last year, central banks bought roughly 37 million ounces of gold—a multi-decade record.

It’s no coincidence that the worst year ever for US Treasuries also saw the highest central bank gold buying spree in over 55 years.

As Treasuries’ political and debasement risks rise, nobody should be surprised that demand for gold is skyrocketing. I expect this trend to accelerate.

Instead of parking their savings in Treasuries, people, companies, and countries will increasingly park their savings in gold.

We are already seeing that with central banks.

So far this year, central banks have bought about 25% of worldwide gold production.

China is one of the biggest gold buyers.

China has dumped over 25% of its massive stash of Treasuries since 2021. At the same time, China has bought vast amounts of gold—five million ounces since last November, or nearly $10 billion.

Observation #9: Gold is the top store-of-value alternative to Treasuries. As demand for Treasuries falls, demand for gold will soar.

Central banks and governments are the largest individual holders of gold in the world.

Together they own over 1.1 billion troy ounces of gold out of the 6.8 billion ounces humans have mined over thousands of years.

And those are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold holdings could be much higher because governments are often opaque about their gold, which they consider a crucial part of their economic security.

Russia and China—the US’ top geopolitical rivals—have been the biggest gold buyers over the last two decades.

It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.

China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Russia is number two. Most of that gold finds its way into the Chinese and Russian government’s coffers.

As the trend of financial repression unfolds, I expect central banks to accelerate their Treasury sales and gold purchases.

Conclusion

Here is the investment thesis for gold:

Observation #1: The US government can’t repay its debt. Default is inevitable.

Observation #2: It will not be an explicit default.

Observation #3: The debt will continue to grow at an accelerating pace.

Observation #4: Foreigners are not buying as many Treasuries.

Observation #5: The US government cannot allow interest rates to rise much further.

Observation #6: The Federal Reserve is the only big buyer of Treasuries stepping up, which means currency debasement.

Observation #7: The US government will use financial repression to debase the currency in a controlled fashion, though it could spiral into out-of-control inflation.

Observation #8: Treasuries will no longer be the “go-to” store-of-value asset as people look for alternatives.

Observation #9: Gold is the top store-of-value alternative to Treasuries. As demand for Treasuries falls, demand for gold will soar.

In short, we are on the verge of a paradigm shift in international finance as gold replaces Treasuries as the world’s premier store-of-value asset.

The last time the international monetary system experienced a paradigm shift of this magnitude was in 1971.

Then, gold skyrocketed from $35 per ounce to $850 in 1980—a gain of over 2,300% or more than 24x.

I expect the percentage rise in the price of gold to be at least as significant as it was during the last paradigm shift.

That’s because this coming gold bull market could be fundamentally different than other cyclical bull markets. It will be riding the wave of a powerful trend: the re-monetization of gold as the king store-of-value asset. It could lead to the biggest gold bull market ever.

While this megatrend is already well underway, I believe the most significant gains are still ahead.

That’s precisely why I just released an urgent report on where this is all headed and what you can do about it… including three strategies everyone needs today. Click here to download the PDF now.

end

Dr Daniel Lacalle interviewed by Andrew Maguire:

EPISODE 134

“The mo

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LUXURY GOODS

Luxury goods//diamonds crashing to pre covid levels

Luxury Turmoil: Diamond Prices Crash To Pre-COVID Levels; Used Rolex Prices Hit New Six-Month Low

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 06:55 AM

We asked in May Did Europe’s Luxury Bubble Just Burst?

By June, we pointed out Luxury Recession: Diamond Prices Crash, Rolex Downturn Persists.

And there were signs in July that Richemont, the owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry, reported a surprise drop in revenue in the second quarter. As we noted then, “Faltering demand in one of its biggest markets is an ominous sign of a weakening consumer.”

Besides Richemont, LVMH faces troubles as the US luxury market sours in the second quarter. The so-called ‘strong consumer’ narrative is cracking. This comes as consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth, forcing some to draw down on personal savings while racking up insurmountable credit card debt to make ends meet. On top of this, interest rates are at 22-year highs, and the latest Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices shows even tighter bank lending standards that suggest a less favorable economic outlook for the US in the coming quarters.

Considering all these factors, it makes sense why diamond prices have collapsed to pre-Covid levels. The latest data from the Diamond Index via International Diamond Exchange shows the index was at 116.12 on Aug. 1, breaching the floor of 116.26 set on Mar. 24, 2020.

Also, the secondhand luxury watch market has yet to find a bottom.

The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value on the secondary market, continues to slide, breaching a six-month support level of around $35,762, now printing about $35,271. The index has slumped 41% since peaking around $60,600 in March 2022.

Burberry and Prada have also reported weakening demand in the US market. Without stimulus checks, the luxury goods boom is no more. Just wait until student debt payments restart in under a month..

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

Interesting: global container rates are jumping the most in two years

(zerohedge)

Global Container Rates Jump The Most In Two Years

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 05:45 AM

Spot rates for shipping containers have been rising for four weeks. The latest data from the Drewry World Container Index composite shows the most significant weekly gain in the index in more than two years. The 23-month slump in ocean-freight costs appears to be ending.

The Drewry World Container Index jumped 11.79% to $1,761 for a 40-foot container, the largest weekly gain since June 24, 2021 — or the period when shipping costs worldwide were sky-high because of snarled supply chains.

All major shipping lines have experienced a multi-year decline.

Some of the largest gains in the last four weeks have been on the Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York routes.

Senior editor Greg Miller of logistics firm FreightWaves wrote a note last week explaining:

Spot rates have been on the rise for three straight weeks, rebounding to levels last seen in early 2023 and late 2022, according to several index providers. U.S. import bookings remain above pre-COVID levels, and multiple analysts are now highlighting positive rate effects from reduced vessel capacity.

While managing vessel capacity appears to be working, French shipper CMA CGM SA warned East-West trade lanes are under more pressure and dropping faster than the North-South trade, which remains pretty dynamic.”

In early May, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for global trade, expected weaker results for the rest of 2023 after a slump in the first quarter. Maersk is slated to report on Friday.

Goldman updated clients on its Supply Chain Congestion Scale registers a “2,” which means the weekly bottleneck metrics for global supply chains appear to have normalized after the snarls during Covid.

Economists and analysts have been optimistic in recent weeks that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing and avoid a recession (remember, there’s stealth QE).

“We believe the Fed is on track for a soft landing … and the data this week has been consistently good. It adds to my conviction,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, recently said.

In the world’s second-largest economy, signs of slowing growth and weakness in China persists. Perhaps the surge in container rates is more or less a function of reduced capacity instead of a rise in demand.

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1862

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1936

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 111.59 PTS OR 0.61%

2. Nikkei closed UP 33.47 PTS OR 0.10%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.73 EURO FALLS TO 1.0946 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.632 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.62/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6115***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.315*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.669…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.9117

3j Gold at $1940.00 silver at: 23.50 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 17 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 95.16//

3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.62// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.632% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8770 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9600 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.192 UP 0 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.298 UP 0 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.934 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.99…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.5365

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Rally Fizzles As Apple Slides, Payrolls Loom

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 08:16 AM

An earlier rally in US equity futures fizzled and Treasuries steadied after days of sharp losses as Apple sunk to session lows, while traders awaited employment data for clues on the path for Federal Reserve interest rates. As of 7:45am ET S&P futures were fractionally in the red at 4,520 erasing a earlier gain of 0.3% and set to extend their biggest weekly decline since March; meanwhile Nasdaq futures were still in the green, up 0.2% thanks to Amazon.com surging 9% in premarket trading after revenue at the world’s largest e-commerce and cloud services company beat estimates. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index turned lower while Asian stocks rose, trimming their weekly decline, on pockets of good news in China and shreds of optimism that the spike in bond yields won’t last. The Bloomberg dollar index rose 0.1% while 10Y TSY yields added one basis point to trade at 4.19%.

In premarket trading, Apple’s market value dropped 2%, sliding below the historic $3 trillion level after the world’s biggest company posted a third straight quarter of declining sales, sparking worries over tepid demand for its handsets and other gadgets

On the other end, Amazon.com shares jumped as much as 9.1% as analysts hiked their price targets for the stock en masse after the e-commerce and cloud computing company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

Airbnb shares dip 0.2% after the company reported a lower-than-expected number of nights and experiences booked in the second quarter. Analysts saw the results as solid overall, though Citi said the miss could weigh on shares. .
Amgen’s second-quarter earnings assuage investor concerns over the biotech’s performance after its weak first-quarter report, analysts say, noting inventory and volume both recovered and EPS slightly beat expectations.
Assertio Holdings shares plummet 42% after the pharmaceutical company withdrew its full-year 2023 financial outlook to assess the impact of an FDA-approved generic indomethacin, an arthritis drug.
Atlassian shares soar 23% after the team- collaboration software maker beat estimates on cloud revenue and operating margin. Outlook for margins to hit a bottom in fiscal 2024 was highlighted as a positive by analysts, even though the cloud growth guidance was viewed as conservative and the company struggled to sign up new customers amid slower corporate spending.
Block Inc shares slide 4.1% in premarket trading Friday after its July gross profit growth forecast fell short for investors. The company also boosted its adjusted operating income guidance for the full year; the outlook beat the average analyst estimate.
Coinbase rises 1.2%, after the cryptocurrency company reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, driven by higher retail transaction fee rates, analysts say.
DraftKings shares soar 14% after the online sportsbook reported second- quarter revenue that beat consensus expectations and raised its forecast for the year. Analysts had a positive reaction to the print, with Goodbody saying it was an “excellent” update overall.
Tupperware Brands shares soar 52% after the food-storage container company reached an agreement with its lenders to restructure its existing debt obligations, as it continues its turnaround efforts.

The market has been largely frozen ahead of today’s non-farm payrolls number (due at 830am) which is forecast to show the US added 200,000 jobs in July with crowd-soured whisper number higher at 222,000 (full preview here). While that would be the weakest print since the end of 2020, it’s still strong historically and a number exceeding that may fuel bets on more Fed hikes. A report Thursday underscored resilient US demand for workers and the mood in markets remains cautious. Here is a breakdown of payrolls forecasts by bank

290,000 – Citigroup
250,000 – Barclays
250,000 – Goldman
240,000 – HSBC
210,000 – Wells
200,000 – Credit Suisse
190,000 – Morgan Stanley
190,000 – SocGen
175,000 – Deutsche Bank
175,000 – JP Morgan Chase
150,000 – UBS

“With NFP still to come, I shouldn’t think investors are too willing to jump in with both feet just yet,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.

Investors indeed are biding their time until after the jobs report is out: the jolt from Fitch Ratings stripping the US of its triple-A credit ranking was compounded by news Wednesday that the government will boost quarterly debt sales to $103 billion, more than expected. Yields soared to the highest since November as traders fretted over the increased supply, wiping out the Treasury market’s gains for 2023.

Meanwhile, the recent tumult in markets is making investors wary. Bank of America’s clients are moving out of equities as the risk of an economic contraction remains high, strategist Michael Hartnett said. “Private clients are shifting back to ‘risk-off’ mode,” he wrote in a note, adding that a hard landing was still a risk for the second half amid the higher bond yields and tighter financial conditions.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.3% as it looks to snap a three-day losing streak as travel and leisure shares outperformed. European natural gas headed for the biggest weekly gain since June. Here are the most notable European movers:

Credit Agricole shares rise as much as 6.1% after the French lender reported a surge in profit for the second quarter and beat consensus expectations, analysts said
Bpost gains as much as 7.8% after the postal company had second-quarter results which analysts say were overall positive, with a decent performance in Belgium offsetting a softer US market
Commerzbank dropped as much as 3.8%, the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, as a lack of detail in the German lender’s 2H share buyback plan, overshadowed a 2Q beat on net interest income and an improved full-year outlook for lending
Carl Zeiss Meditec falls as much as 6.9%, the most since May, after the German medical optics firm reported a “disappointing” set of 3Q figures, according to Oddo analysts, who flag lower mid-term guidance as another key negative
WPP shares fall as much as 8%, the most in a year, after the advertising agency reduced its full-year organic growth forecast, citing lower revenue from US technology clients and a weaker-than-expected sales rebound in China
IMCD shares dropped as much as 8.3%, the biggest drop since May last year, after the chemicals distributor reported revenue in the first half of the year that missed analyst estimates
Genmab fell as much as 3.6% after the Danish biotech reported its latest earnings, which analysts said highlighted a pipeline that’s mostly unexciting until 2024
Freenet shares fall as much as 2.3% to the lowest level since January, erasing an earlier 1.9% gain, after the telecom and media firm’s core mobile communications segment missed 2Q revenue estimates
Lanxess shares slide as much as 4.9%, with Morgan Stanley highlighting weak free cash flow in the chemicals company’s 2Q result as a key negative, caused by a fall in adjusted Ebitda
Sika shares drop as much as 3.9% after the Swiss construction-materials company reported 1H results that were below expectations, partially due to costs related to its recent

Asian stocks rose, trimming their weekly decline, on pockets of good news in China and shreds of optimism that the spike in bond yields won’t last. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.5%, before fading most of the gains with benchmarks in Hong Kong, China and Vietnam among the biggest gainers. The MSCI regional gauge is still headed for a more than 2% drop this week, its worst since late June, as the dollar strengthened and bond yields spiked globally as traders assess the outlook for the US economy.

The macro backdrop has become more favorable for Asian equities, according to Goldman Sachs. Investors should “use the potential soft late-summer seasonality to position for the typically strong 4Q,” as US economic data support soft-landing prospects and China’s Politburo meeting positively surprised, strategist Timothy Moe wrote in a note.

Chinese stocks got a boost Friday on expectations of more funding for the property sector and a jump in brokerage shares due to a cut in a reserve payment ratio. The People’s Bank of China said it will step up its monetary support for the economy and help banks control liability costs.
Stocks dipped in Australia, Taiwan and Singapore, with benchmarks in the latter two poised to cap their worst week since October.
Australia’s ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related sectors and financials were counterbalanced by weakness in defensives, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy provided little to shift the dial and reiterated that some further tightening may be required.
The Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses as an early retreat beneath the 32,000 level was met with dip buying which then petered out.
Indian stocks ended their three-day long losing streak on Friday boosted by gains in technology and pharmaceutical companies. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.7% to 65,721.25 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same magnitude. For the week, both indexes closed with 0.7% losses but fell less than the 2.4% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% amid position unwinds ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data. However, the measure is still set for a third weekly advance. The Aussie added as much as 0.6%, extending an exporter-driven gain after the central bank implied that rates may have to remain at elevated levels for longer. The Swiss franc is the worst performer among the G-10’s, falling 0.4% versus the greenback.

“Solid ADP likely raised market expectations for NFP already, which means that the USD is vulnerable to a sell-on- rally reaction tonight,” said Fiona Lim, senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Berhad in Singapore. “We had seen a bout of strong US data for much of the past week that lifted the USD,” she added

In rates, 30-year bonds edged higher with yields down 2bps while two-year borrowing costs rise 4bps. 10Y Yields were flat at 4.18%. The treasury curve was flatter into early US session, paring a four-day steepening move for 2s10s and 5s30s spreads. 5s30s returns to negative after flipping positive for the first time since June 13 on Thursday. Front-end-led weakness follows similar bear-flattening in bunds and gilts during London morning. Bunds are lower, having extended declines after German factory orders saw their largest rise in three-years.

In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 0.5% to trade near $82. Spot gold is little changed around $1,934.

Bitcoin is under marked pressure in relatively narrow ranges which remain above the USD 29k mark given overall price action is somewhat tentative pre-NFP.

Looking ahead to today, we have the US July jobs report, the UK July construction PMI, new car registrations, Italian June industrial production, German construction PMI for July as well as factory orders, French Q2 wages and June industrial production, the Eurozone June retail sales and the Canadian jobs report for July. We will hear from the BoE’s Pill, and earnings releases from Dominion Energy and LyondellBasell.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,538.25
MXAP little changed at 166.06
MXAPJ little changed at 526.16
Nikkei up 0.1% to 32,192.75
Topix up 0.3% to 2,274.63
Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 19,539.46
Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,288.08
Sensex up 0.4% to 65,513.20
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,325.34
Kospi little changed at 2,602.80
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 458.55
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.63%
Euro little changed at $1.0943
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $85.43/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,933.24
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.56

Top Overnight News

China continues to speak forcefully about providing stimulus to the economy and bolstering growth – the PBOC on Thurs pledged to channel more financial resources into the private economy. RTRS
China will relax a range of social control policies as the gov’t scrambles to pull various stimulus levels to bolster the economy. SCMP
Japan’s state pension fund — the world’s largest — posted a record 9.5% gain of ¥18.98 trillion ($133 billion) in the three months through June. Domestic stocks were the top performers, gaining 14.4% as stable inflation and bigger stakes from investors including Warren Buffett reinvigorated local markets. Overseas bonds gained 8.1%. BBG
Maersk cuts its outlook for global container volume growth in 2023 (given the weak start of the year and the continued destocking, Maersk now sees the global container volume growth in the range of -4% to -1% compared to -2.5% to +0.5% previously). BBG
Ukraine attacked the oil export infrastructure that helps fund Moscow’s invasion for the first time on Friday, using a drone strike to damage a Russian naval vessel outside the port of Novorossiysk. FT
Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global has built a big stake in private equity group Apollo Global as the hedge fund looks outside of the technology investments that have been its mainstay in recent years in a hunt for better returns. FT
GIR’s BOTTOM LINE on NFP: Estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in July, above consensus of +200k and roughly in line with the +244k average pace of the last three months. Estimate private payrolls rose 225k. Estimate the unemployment rate edged down by 0.1pp to 3.5% reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.6%. 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings that lowers the year-on-year rate to 4.2%, reflecting waning upward wage pressures and positive calendar effect. GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as most bourses in the region lacked firm direction after a lackluster handover from the US, while participants reflected on tech giant earnings and the latest PBoC support pledges. ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related sectors and financials were counterbalanced by weakness in defensives, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy provided little to shift the dial and reiterated that some further tightening may be required. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses as an early retreat beneath the 32,000 level was met with dip buying which then petered out. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with gains led by the property sector after the latest policy support pledges by the PBoC which announced it is to rollout guidelines to support private firms and will expand debt financing tools, as well as implement differentiated housing credit policies.

Top Asian News

PBoC official said RRR cuts, open market operations, MLF and all structural policy tools need to be flexibly used to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system and they will guide banks to effectively adjust mortgage interest rates and support banks to reasonably control the cost of liabilities. Furthermore, the official said monetary policy room is ample and they will step up counter-cyclical adjustment, as well as reasonably handle the interest rate level to prevent capital arbitrage, according to Reuters.
China NDRC official said China’s economy is to keep stable, improving momentum in H2 and they will strengthen policy reserves to release huge market potential, while they will study a batch of policy reserves with greater intensity, according to Reuters.
China’s Global Times tweeted that Shanghai’s securities regulator will conduct on-site inspections of securities companies such as Morgan Stanley Securities and Changjiang Financing Services as it targets employee management and anti-money laundering.
US President Biden is being urged to limit further US investment in Chinese stocks and bonds ahead of an expected new order next week, according to FT citing US House China Committee Chair Mike Gallagher. It was also reported that the House China Committee Chair held out the possibility of a subpoena in the Blackrock (BLK) and MSCI (MSCI) probe if they do not provide “fulsome” answers about investments in blacklisted Chinese companies.
China’s MOFCOM lifted anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley from August 5th.
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy said some further tightening may be required and the board considered hiking rates at the August meeting but decided the stronger case was to hold steady. RBA also stated that risks around inflation are broadly balanced but much depends on inflation expectations and inflation is moving in the right direction which is consistent with reaching the target by late 2025, while it added that tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks.

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, in largely contained trade ahead of the US NFP report. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in Travel & Leisure amid strength in airliners and some gambling names, elsewhere Banking and Energy names are supported by yields and benchmarks respectively. Stateside, futures are a touch firmer and largely in-fitting with European peers, ES +0.3%; aside from NDP, participants are digesting the numerous after-hours results on Thursday including Amazon +8.8% and Apple -1.8%.

Top European News

BoE Governor Bailey said rates will have to remain restrictive and it is “too early” to see victory on inflation, while he noted the last mile of the inflation fight is to take some time, according to a Bloomberg TV interview.
UK PM Sunak is considering skipping the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN, according to the Telegraph.
UK Chancellor Hunt asked the FCA to carry out an urgent review on concerns around “debanking” and the government will determine whether further action is necessary based on the findings. FCA is to ask the biggest banks and building societies for data on account terminations and the reasons for them, while it will provide an initial assessment of account terminations by mid-September.
ECB says median and mean underlying inflation measures suggest that underlying inflation likely peaked in the first half of 2023. Although most measures are showing signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. *Persistent and common components of inflation appear to have started to decline for service.
A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) Q2 (USD): EBIT 1.6bln (exp. 0.89bln), EBITDA 2.9bln (exp. 2.4bln). Forecast global container volume growth in a -4% to -1% range (prev. -2.5% to +0.5%), based on the continued destocking. “Overall, the environment for container trade and logistics services remains challenging. Currently, there is no sign of a substantial rebound in volumes in the second half of the year.”.

The broader Dollar and index trades on either side of 102.50 but closer towards the upper end of a tight intraday parameter thus far, underpinned by the upside in yields as US bonds remain under pressure.
The antipodeans narrowly outperform in the G10 space, trading flat/firmer, after consecutive sessions of hefty underperformance amid a combination of the RBA pause, risk aversion, and softer data from the region. AUD could also be feeling some relief from reports that China’s MOFCOM lifts anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley.
Traditional havens give up some recent risk-induced gains in the run-up to the US jobs report, with little in terms of fresh newsflow to drive price action in recent trade.
EUR and GBP are relatively flat against the USD and each other amid a light European calendar and quiet newsflow in the region. EUR/USD was unreactive to mixed EZ retail sales and the surprise and substantial growth in German Industrial Orders.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1808 (prev. 7.1495)

Fixed Income

Overall, comparably contained trade but bearish drivers continue to dictate action given an absence of fresh catalysts pre-NFP.
As it stands, EGBs and USTs are pressured and at incremental lows for the week as the majority of price action remains driven by supply-side dynamics from the US.

Commodities

WTI and Brent front-month futures exhibit a slightly firmer bias as markets gear up for the OPEC+ JMMC and thereafter the US jobs report.
Spot gold is trading sideways in the run-up to the US jobs report with the yellow metal contained within yesterday’s range (USD 1,929.19-1,937.79/oz).
Base metals remain mostly subdued amid the indecisive mood but hold onto a bulk of recent gains as all eyes turn to NFP. 3M LME copper holds above USD 8,500/t but declined from a USD 8,686/t overnight high.
OPEC+ JMMC meeting to start at 12:30 BST/07:30EDT, according to EnergyIntel’s Bakr (previously guided for 13:00BSt/08:00EDT)
White House’s Kirby said the US is to continue working with producers and consumers to ensure the energy market promotes growth after the Saudi decision on oil production.
Kremlin spokesman says we can not believe statements by the US of their readiness to facilitate Russian exports if Moscow returns to grain deal, according to Ria.
Nippon Steel (5401 JT) executive expects it will take a long time for China’s steel demand to recover.

Geopolitics

Russian social media users reported explosions and gunfire near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while the Russian Defence Ministry later stated that Ukrainian forces attacked the Novorossiysk navy base with two sea drones and that the drones were destroyed, according to TASS.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium says movement of ships resumes in Novorossiysk after drone attack.
US Secretary of State Blinken said in the event of a return to the grain deal, the US will continue to make sure everyone can export food products safely including Russia. Blinken also stated they have not yet received a response from China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the invite to the US but expect to have an opportunity and fully expect Chinese counterparts to come to the US.
Russian and Turkish Deputy Foreign Ministers discussed the grain deal, according to Bloomberg.
White House’s Kirby said the US remains concerned that North Korea will send munitions to Russia.
US may put troops on commercial ships to stop Iran seizures, according to AP.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Another weekend ahead of being home alone and trying to play as many rounds of golf as my body permits. The family are going camping today. My wife and I have an unwritten understanding that camping is very bad for my back and therefore I’m not going. However, I think we both know that I have little interest in camping and it’s easier for a successful marriage to not have that conversation and just blame my back. My thoughts are that I haven’t worked hard for 28 years to sleep in a muddy field when I have a nice mattress at home. So it’s just Brontë and I and three rounds of golf.

The bond vigilantes have certainly camped out on the lawn of the US fixed income market this week as the sell-off entered its third consecutive day on Thursday (10yr UST +9.6bps) in the shadow of US Treasury credit quality jitters and confirmation of increased Treasury supply in the coming quarter. I’ve not heard anyone mention the comparison but there is a minor similarity to what happened with the UK last September and October. Back then an ambitious pro-growth UK budget by the new Prime Minister and Chancellor prompted sudden fears of heavy extra gilt supply, yields then surged and the LDI crises magnified it and we ended up with; UK asset managers having huge liquidity issues, BoE intervention, mass political top level resignations and a complete U-turn of a budget. Of course there are important differences, not least the Dollar has rallied slightly this week whereas Sterling slumped last year when the mini-crisis happened.

For the US the confusing thing is how much of the budget deficit increase of late is due to delayed tax receipts (due to winter storms) and how much is due to genuine stealth fiscal easing. It still feels like the former to me but that’s not to say that the weak US fiscal situation isn’t unparalleled in non-recessionary or non-crises times. Also there’s no denying that tax receipts are lower and interest costs higher at the moment so the increased issuance in the next few months is real. As such treasuries are making room for the extra supply. We’ll wait and see if it triggers any issues anywhere.

On a similar vein, back in March there were some who suggested that the straw that broke the camel’s back in the SVB downfall was possibly the Powell hawkish testimony to Congress earlier that week. So can any of us say with any certainty that the last of the market shocks from higher rates are behind us? Feel free to email me if you are 100% sure they are.

The renewed rates sell-off got an extra push with US data releases on the day that pointed to further resilience of the US labour market and upward price pressure in the US economy. In this context, it’s put a laser focus on the market’s favourite random number generator, namely payrolls later today. Our economists expect +175k (vs +200k expected by consensus), with the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.6%. You can read their full preview here.

As we go into this important day, after the bell last night, we had mixed results from tech giants Apple and Amazon, which in aggregate have driven NASDAQ futures +0.50% higher as I type. Amazon shares gained +8.7% in after-market trading as it delivered stronger Q2 net sales ($134.38bn vs $131.63bn est.) and issued stronger sales and income guidance for Q3. By contrast, Apple shares lost some ground after hours. While its Q2 results broadly met expectations, they represented a third straight quarter of falling sales with iPhone sales a touch below estimates. So Apple’s $3trn market capitalisation achieved in late June may be at risk today. The two companies represent nearly 20% of the NASDAQ’s value so a big event to get through. S&P 500 (+0.34%) futures are also higher.

Back to the main story of the week now. The eventful start to August in the US Treasury market spilled into Thursday as the US Treasury officially kickstarted their increase in issuance, boosting the size of their T-bill auctions. The size of the 3-month bill sale rose from $65 billion to $67 billion, and the 6-month to $60 billion from $58 billion. This added to the issuance story that has been driving the selloff in US rates in the past few sessions. US 10yr Treasuries gained +9.6bps to 4.18%, again hitting its highest level since the 15-year peak of 4.24% reached last November. The long end again led the sell off, with +11.6bps rise in 30yr yields. 30yr mortage rates hit their highest level since 2000.

By contrast, the 2yr yield was virtually unchanged on the day, leading to a bear steepening of the 2s10s curve by +9.7bps. Although the curve remains deeply inverted (-70.8bps), this is the least inverted since May. Our rates strategists’ preferred term premium measure has also moved to its highest level since 2015. See their note here for more. Higher term premium has been one of our favoured trades for a while but has been surprisingly slow to work.

Adding to the mix, US weekly jobless claims remained at the lower levels of recent weeks at 227k (vs 225k expected). We also had the US July ISM services index at 52.7 (vs 53.1 expected). However, it was the prices paid index that caught the attention after a solid increase to 56.8 (vs 54.1 expected), highlighting risks to the disinflation view. This marginally trimmed the size of expected rate cuts into 2024, as pricing for Fed fund futures in December 2024 gained +1.3bps.

In Europe we heard from ECB’s Panetta. A known dove, Panetta stressed the “persistence approach” whereby policy rates are to be kept at a restrictive level for an extended period over further tightening. This echoed ECB President Lagarde’s comments at Sintra earlier this year, at which she argued that persistent inflation requires a persistent restrictive monetary policy stance. Panetta also reiterated the ECB’s data dependence mode, highlighting that further adjustment may be necessary “should the inflation outlook materially deteriorate”. The speech followed downward revisions to the Eurozone PMI results for July. The composite index was revised from 48.9 to 48.6, with increased questions over domestic growth as services new business fell into contraction for the first time since December. Despite this backdrop, 10yr German bunds sold off by +7.1bps, more in line with the US trends than domestic themes.

The risk-off mood tempered in equity markets, as the S&P 500 fell by a more modest -0.25% on Thursday, but still seeing its third consecutive day of losses. The energy sector (+0.95%) outperformed off the back of an extension of the voluntary 1m b/d supply cut by Saudi Arabia through September, with additional extensions possible. WTI crude rallied +2.59% to $81.55/bbl and Brent gained +2.33% to $85.14/bbl. The risk-off sentiment likewise wound back for the technology sector with the NASDAQ seeing only a marginal decline of -0.10% before the Apple and Amazon results. European STOXX 600 earlier slipped -0.63%. European technology struggled, with semiconductors down -2.51% following disappointing earnings forecasts by German semiconductor darling Infineon (-9.33%). The German DAX thus underperformed, down -0.79%.

Over the channel in the UK, the BoE followed the Fed’s and ECB’s lead by hiking their policy rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected by consensus. The MPC retained its data-dependent approach but demonstrated confidence that tight monetary policy is now weighing on economic activity, with the MPC stating that “the current monetary policy stance is restrictive” for the first time. The Committee also judged “that risks around the modal inflation forecast are skewed to the upside, albeit by less than in May.” Much like the ECB, the BoE played the higher for longer card, emphasising that policy needed to be restrictive for “sufficiently long” to ensure inflation returns to their 2% target rate. You can find our UK economist’s review of the meeting here.

Expectations for near-term BoE rate hikes were subsequently pared back, with the expected rate for the November meeting falling -10.3bps. That said, terminal pricing for early 2024 eased more marginally (-3bp yesterday). 2yr gilts continued their rally off the back of the meeting (-1.6bps), with a big steepening as 10yr yields (+6.7bps) rose in line with the global trend.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher as they approach the end of a volatile week. In terms of specific moves, Chinese stocks are seeing gains with the Hang Seng (+1.01%) leading the way followed by the CSI (+0.52%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.48%) amid signs of support for private sectors from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Otherwise, the Nikkei (-0.09%) and the KOSPI (+0.04%) are showing a lack of direction with both trading in and out of negative territory this morning.

In central bank news, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed the growth outlook of the country to 1% for this year from its earlier estimate of 1.25% as the ‘cost -of- living pressures’ coupled with a ‘rise in interest rates’ continue to weigh on demand. Still the central bank highlighted that inflation is moving in the right direction and sees consumer prices returning within the 2-3% target range at the end of 2025.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

EUROPE

European bourses bid, NQ outperforms on AMZN strength, Fixed dips; NFP report due – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 05:56 AM

European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer with updates limited aside from numerous corporate developments pre-NFP
AMZN +8.8% & AAPL -1.8% pre-market; Berkshire Hathaway reports on the weekend
DXY is firmer but yet to lift above 102.50, Antipodeans outperform while havens pare some of their recent gains
Fixed benchmarks dip to incremental WTD lows with the week’s bearish drivers still in play
WTI and Brent are edging higher as we head towards the OPEC+ JMMC at 12:30BST/07:30ET
Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Canadian Unemployment, OPEC+ JMMC, Speech from BoE’s Pill, Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, in largely contained trade ahead of the US NFP report.
Sectors are mixed with outperformance in Travel & Leisure amid strength in airliners and some gambling names, elsewhere Banking and Energy names are supported by yields and benchmarks respectively.
Stateside, futures are a touch firmer and largely in-fitting with European peers, ES +0.3%; aside from NDP, participants are digesting the numerous after-hours results on Thursday including Amazon +8.8% and Apple -1.8%.
Click here for more detail.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.

FX

The broader Dollar and index trades on either side of 102.50 but closer towards the upper end of a tight intraday parameter thus far, underpinned by the upside in yields as US bonds remain under pressure.
The antipodeans narrowly outperform in the G10 space, trading flat/firmer, after consecutive sessions of hefty underperformance amid a combination of the RBA pause, risk aversion, and softer data from the region. AUD could also be feeling some relief from reports that China’s MOFCOM lifts anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley.
Traditional havens give up some recent risk-induced gains in the run-up to the US jobs report, with little in terms of fresh newsflow to drive price action in recent trade.
EUR and GBP are relatively flat against the USD and each other amid a light European calendar and quiet newsflow in the region. EUR/USD was unreactive to mixed EZ retail sales and the surprise and substantial growth in German Industrial Orders.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1808 (prev. 7.1495)
Click here for more detail.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Overall, comparably contained trade but bearish drivers continue to dictate action given an absence of fresh catalysts pre-NFP.
As it stands, EGBs and USTs are pressured and at incremental lows for the week as the majority of price action remains driven by supply-side dynamics from the US.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent front-month futures exhibit a slightly firmer bias as markets gear up for the OPEC+ JMMC and thereafter the US jobs report.
Spot gold is trading sideways in the run-up to the US jobs report with the yellow metal contained within yesterday’s range (USD 1,929.19-1,937.79/oz).
Base metals remain mostly subdued amid the indecisive mood but hold onto a bulk of recent gains as all eyes turn to NFP. 3M LME copper holds above USD 8,500/t but declined from a USD 8,686/t overnight high.
OPEC+ JMMC meeting to start at 12:30 BST/07:30EDT, according to EnergyIntel’s Bakr (previously guided for 13:00BSt/08:00EDT)
White House’s Kirby said the US is to continue working with producers and consumers to ensure the energy market promotes growth after the Saudi decision on oil production.
Kremlin spokesman says we can not believe statements by the US of their readiness to facilitate Russian exports if Moscow returns to grain deal, according to Ria.
Nippon Steel (5401 JT) executive expects it will take a long time for China’s steel demand to recover.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fitch downgraded from AAA to AA+ the ratings of certain categories of debt directly tied to the creditworthiness of the US or related entities, according to Reuters.
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.19), Revenue 81.80bln (exp. 81.69bln), Products revenue USD 60.58bln (exp. 60.67bln), iPhone revenue USD 39.67bln (exp. 39.8bln), Mac revenue USD 6.84bln (exp. 6.37bln), iPad revenue USD 5.79bln (exp. 6.33bln). Shares in pre-market trade
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 0.65 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 134.4bln (exp. 131.5bln) Shares in pre-market trade
Click here for the US Early Morning note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

BoE Governor Bailey said rates will have to remain restrictive and it is “too early” to see victory on inflation, while he noted the last mile of the inflation fight is to take some time, according to a Bloomberg TV interview.
UK PM Sunak is considering skipping the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN, according to the Telegraph.
UK Chancellor Hunt asked the FCA to carry out an urgent review on concerns around “debanking” and the government will determine whether further action is necessary based on the findings. FCA is to ask the biggest banks and building societies for data on account terminations and the reasons for them, while it will provide an initial assessment of account terminations by mid-September.
ECB says median and mean underlying inflation measures suggest that underlying inflation likely peaked in the first half of 2023. Although most measures are showing signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. *Persistent and common components of inflation appear to have started to decline for service. *
A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) Q2 (USD): EBIT 1.6bln (exp. 0.89bln), EBITDA 2.9bln (exp. 2.4bln). Forecast global container volume growth in a -4% to -1% range (prev. -2.5% to +0.5%), based on the continued destocking. “Overall, the environment for container trade and logistics services remains challenging. Currently, there is no sign of a substantial rebound in volumes in the second half of the year.”.

DATA RECAP

German Industrial Orders MM (Jun 2023) 7.0% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. 6.4%); ex-large orders -2.6% MM.
EU HCOB Construction PMI (Jul) 43.5 (Prev. 44.2)
EU Retail Sales YY (Jun 2023) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -2.9%); MM (Jun 2023) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2%
UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul) 51.7 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 48.9)

GEOPOLITICS

Russian social media users reported explosions and gunfire near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while the Russian Defence Ministry later stated that Ukrainian forces attacked the Novorossiysk navy base with two sea drones and that the drones were destroyed, according to TASS.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium says movement of ships resumes in Novorossiysk after drone attack.
US Secretary of State Blinken said in the event of a return to the grain deal, the US will continue to make sure everyone can export food products safely including Russia. Blinken also stated they have not yet received a response from China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the invite to the US but expect to have an opportunity and fully expect Chinese counterparts to come to the US.
Russian and Turkish Deputy Foreign Ministers discussed the grain deal, according to Bloomberg.
White House’s Kirby said the US remains concerned that North Korea will send munitions to Russia.
US may put troops on commercial ships to stop Iran seizures, according to AP.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is under marked pressure in relatively narrow ranges which remain above the USD 29k mark given overall price action is somewhat tentative pre-NFP.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mixed as most bourses in the region lacked firm direction after a lackluster handover from the US, while participants reflected on tech giant earnings and the latest PBoC support pledges.
ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related sectors and financials were counterbalanced by weakness in defensives, while the RBA’s quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy provided little to shift the dial and reiterated that some further tightening may be required.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses as an early retreat beneath the 32,000 level was met with dip buying which then petered out.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with gains led by the property sector after the latest policy support pledges by the PBoC which announced it is to rollout guidelines to support private firms and will expand debt financing tools, as well as implement differentiated housing credit policies.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC official said RRR cuts, open market operations, MLF and all structural policy tools need to be flexibly used to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system and they will guide banks to effectively adjust mortgage interest rates and support banks to reasonably control the cost of liabilities. Furthermore, the official said monetary policy room is ample and they will step up counter-cyclical adjustment, as well as reasonably handle the interest rate level to prevent capital arbitrage, according to Reuters.
China NDRC official said China’s economy is to keep stable, improving momentum in H2 and they will strengthen policy reserves to release huge market potential, while they will study a batch of policy reserves with greater intensity, according to Reuters.
China’s Global Times tweeted that Shanghai’s securities regulator will conduct on-site inspections of securities companies such as Morgan Stanley Securities and Changjiang Financing Services as it targets employee management and anti-money laundering.
US President Biden is being urged to limit further US investment in Chinese stocks and bonds ahead of an expected new order next week, according to FT citing US House China Committee Chair Mike Gallagher. It was also reported that the House China Committee Chair held out the possibility of a subpoena in the Blackrock (BLK) and MSCI (MSCI) probe if they do not provide “fulsome” answers about investments in blacklisted Chinese companies.
China’s MOFCOM lifted anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley from August 5th.
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy said some further tightening may be required and the board considered hiking rates at the August meeting but decided the stronger case was to hold steady. RBA also stated that risks around inflation are broadly balanced but much depends on inflation expectations and inflation is moving in the right direction which is consistent with reaching the target by late 2025, while it added that tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

EU/TOM LUONGO

Our expert on European affairs

How the ECB is trapped in policies between Japan and the USA

(Tom Luongo)

The ECB Is Trapped Between Japan & The US

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

The ECB has a credibility problem.

It didn’t last year. Last year it was the Fed with the credibility problem.

Today, it’s Christine Lagarde not Jerome Powell that needs to justify her policy.

Powell needed nearly a year after he began raising rates to get a significant portion of the market to believe he was serious about raising rates. Today, they don’t believe him if he making the odd dovish coo.

I don’t blame the market for its previous skepticism, it was well earned. But as I’ve pointed out many times, Powell’s incentives line up with his intentions and that has translated directly into Fed policy.

Lagarde has done the same thing, except she forgot that whole ‘incentives’ part. She has clearly tried to force her intentions onto the market to effect her masters’ policy.

So, she tried to out wait Powell, hoping that domestic US politics would force his hand into the ‘pivot’ that hasn’t come and won’t until something breaks.

That something in my mind is still the ECB. And the race is on as to whether deteriorating credit and economic conditions in the US will force Powell’s hand rather than Lagarde’s. The keys are oil prices and the Bank of Japan.

At last year’s July meeting Powell raised rates another 75 basis points and Lagarde responded by announcing the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) or Toilet Paper Initiative, as I like to call it.

The TPI was put in place to manage German/Italian credit spreads, because last summer they were blowing out very wide and threatening to take down the entire Euro-zone bond market. Powell’s studious application of “Rate Hikes of Unusual Size” as Danielle Dimartino Booth put it to me in the podcast we did back in February, was the cause.

The TPI announcement was paired with statements about the end of the ECB’s current QE programs. But the TPI is just QE in another form, especially if coupled with the ECB and European-adjacent jurisdictions are deploying reserves to manage the US yield curve.

But the TPI alone clearly isn’t enough. Eventually, shuffling underwater bonds from one pocket to another to massage credit spreads runs into the basic problem that Powell hasn’t stopped raising rates.

Running out of OPM

Eventually, as I pointed out in a recent article, policy limits are reached when rates themselves are the problem, not spreads. As a reminder, here’s the German 10-year weekly chart and Lagarde’s defense of 2.5%

Oh, and inflation was “stickier” than Lagarde was fronting this time last year. She was still on the “transitory” talking point. For some reason, the markets believed her. Or, more specifically, wanted to believe her.

The euro-zone bond market is a cancer patient in Stage IV. Each time there is a major event, the rot within it metastasizes again and a new alphabet program has to be invented — OMT, TARGET2, ESPP, TPI, ZOMG.

At this point, there is no internal solution, save blowing up the entire fiction of individual central banks within the EU. Lagarde needs help from the outside to keep this patient alive.

She gets that regularly from both the Biden administration in general as well as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen specifically.

In this month’s Gold Goats ‘n Guns newsletter I laid out why I thought Yellen went to China to beg them to stop selling/start buying US Treasuries to keep a lid of global debt yields and the geopolitical implications for thiis. This morning Zerohedge reports that Yellen has already issued more than $500 billion in new debt and will sell more than $1 trillion in Q3 and another $722 billion in Q4. From the Treasury Marketable Borrowing Estimates report:

During the July – September 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The borrowing estimate is $274 billion higher than announced in May 2023, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance ($148 billion) and higher end-of-quarter cash balance ($50 billion), as well as projections of lower receipts and higher outlays ($83 billion).

During the October – December 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $852 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $750 billion.

With this much borrowing I expect Yellen can and will support Lagarde by structuring Treasury sales to over-supply high-yielding short term debt and under-supply long-term debt. It’s a subtle form of yield curve control designed to keep the 2/10 inversion high and the bid under the long-end of the curve strong.

Clearly, if you can keep long US yields well bid you help the ECB hold the line on German debt. But will it be enough?

The problem for these two ~~Marxists~~ Keynesians is that Powell has them right where he wants them. Despite all of the whining, US economic data looks better than EU data by a wide margin and the summer is nearly over, meaning higher oil prices.

Powell raise by 25 basis points as expected. So too did the ECB, also expected. Powell’s post-statement comments were also abundantly clear, he doesn’t believe inflation has been whipped. He is rightly saying that commodity inflation has a second wave coming, confirming the analysis of myself and Francis Hunt in a banger interview on Palisades Gold Radio (as I outlined in a recent private blog post for Patrons).

In fact, Powell said explicitly he doesn’t see inflation coming down to the 2% target until the middle of 2025.

That knocked markets for a loop. The US yield curve since then blew out to the upside, and it is normalizing in the critical 1-3 year area of the curve, creating a decided trend on a weekly basis, rather than the tug-of-war that had been going on.

Normalization is happening. It’s slow and methodical but it’s happening.

Bank of Japan: Alive or Dead

This is after the Bank of Japan moved markets on Friday with their announcement they will ‘tweak’ their Yield Curve Control policy. Like Lagarde last July raising interest rates and announcing the eventual end of other QE programs (tightening) while announcing the TPI (MOAR QE), the BoJ talked out of both sides of its mouth with this change.

It’s kinda like Schrödinger’s Yield Curve Control at this point. Will they intervene at 0.5% or 1.0% on the ten year JGB? Who knows. Open the box and find out. They intervened almost immediately at 0.6% on the 10-year.

The reality is that the BoJ has to end the policy, but like all trapped institutions, are trying to maintain both credibility AND flexibility. This is exactly what Lagarde tried so hard to do over the past year and failed at miserably.

Ueda at the BoJ will fail as well, unless he keeps markets on their toes.

She’s raising rates because she has to follow Powell and hold to basic investment demands, the market chases real yield.

If she doesn’t follow Powell from here then the capital flow out of Europe goes from a small stream in the backyard to a biblical flood as the markets call bullshit on the entirety of the ECB’s mission. At that point she wouldn’t be able to defend EITHER credit spreads or the euro.

So, clearly Lagarde’s behavior is predictable at this point.

The Bank of Japan, however, is in a better position to play this game because Japan’s fundamentals are slightly stronger than Europe’s. Their Achilles’ heel is oil prices, as both are massive net energy importers. But Japan, unlike Europe, didn’t start a war with Russia over Ukraine. While Japan may still be playing games diplomatically with the Russians over the Kuril Islands, Russia understands the real pain points for Japan.

Don’t be surprised if, now, post-NATO Summit, Russia doesn’t reach out again to try and settle things. This could be a big tell that Washington is finally backing down on World War III if it allows Japan to talk honestly with Russia about the end of World War II.

All of the macro arguments for Japan that have been out there for years are now here – big debt problem, aging population, demand destruction, etc. But they haven’t cut themselves off from the energy they need. More Russian oil is flowing east today than ever before, and that will expand.

Russia would love to make another friend off its eastern coast.

The yen will need to strengthen here to hold inflation in check if the BoJ is serious about letting rates rise. It’s in the Fed’s best interests to remove cover from the EU, so Powell won’t oppose this.

Once that happens, Lagarde will lose the last of her cover through the one-way bets of the carry trades.

This is likely why Ueda gave us uncertainty over YCC policy last week. A little uncertainty means traders need to start paying attention as opposed to assuming nothing’s changed.

Lagarde is predictable. Powell already shocked markets, now he has their attention.

Everyone is now all-in on “Credibility” at the central banks. The age of coordinated policy is over. If there is one central bank with a lower credibility quotient than the pre-Resting Hawk Face Powell, it’s the BoJ.

Greasing the Inflation Skids

The one thing that helped out Lagarde more than anything else has been the fall in oil prices. Biden drained the SPR into a US production peak, grasping for a time the title of Producer of the Marginal Barrel of Crude Oil from Russia.

The stronger euro helped along by this has now clearly lost this support with Brent breaking back towards $85 per barrel. Japan has allowed a weaker yen to cover this cost for most of the last year as well. But, now that trade should reverse because low oil prices were a lie. And now the euro and the yen need the same thing, strength to keep inflation under control and prevent capital flight.

Today oil is clearly on the move to the upside. According to the latest EIA data, US production has completely flatlined, below 12.4 million bbls/day. This was expected with the fall off in the Baker-Hughes Rig count this year.

The big tell is that US exports are falling fast.

US Imports are rising as well. This all signals US oil consumption is rising despite the credit crunch on the horizon.

This has led to the tightening of the Brent/WTI spread to ~$3.60/bbl, down from $4.90/bbl just a few weeks ago and a return of $4.00/gallon gasoline here in Florida. So, any help that came on the inflation front from the US flooding the market with oil this year is done, dusted, buried and the shovel thrown away, for everyone.

Gasoline prices jumped out of the technical box the other day as well.

This is why Powell doesn’t see inflation coming down until 2025. Commodity prices are going higher because of a loss of confidence in governments getting their acts together. Securing supplies of tangible assets for future production will dominate markets just like it did coming out of the COVID-19 lockdowns.

CPI inflation lags moves in gasoline. by about six months.

Inflation is coming back hard this fall.

Credit asset liquidations are just starting.

Major policy changes like the BoJ’s reveal mispricing in fundamental markets.

Old assumptions die, new theses take shape and a new tranche of players realize they are on the wrong side of the trade in a big, big way.

Capital is getting ready for a seismic shift coming around Labor Day here in the US.

Yellen is getting ready to flood the markets with USTs, spending on Capitol Hill isn’t falling anytime soon, which means Powell has all the cover he needs to do whatever he wants to do.

Biden is in trouble and likely will be impeached by October, and Hungary is making noises that will change the EU forever. More on this next time.

Check and mate, Chrissy.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//

A huge drone attack on a Russian navy ship

(zerohedge)

Russian Navy Ship Heavily Damaged In Ukrainian Sea Drone Attack

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 09:20 AM

Ukraine has hit back following a series of Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian ports, and on the heels of last month’s collapse of the UN-backed grain deal, and just as US Secretary of State Blinken has accused Moscow of “using food as a weapon of war”.

Ukraine says its Friday military operation has severely damaged a Russian naval ship – the Olenogorsky Gornyak – off the port of Novorossiysk, a major hub for Russian exports. Video and images appear to show the vessel is listing in the aftermath. Importantly, the port is among the largest in the Black Sea basin and is significantly far from Ukrainian shores, on the clear other side of the Crimean peninsula. Still frame of video purportedly showing the sea drone attack on the Russian naval ship

Earlier claims of the Russian defense ministry said the attack off its port was repelled, but videos emerging in the aftermath show the warship being towed near the Novorossiysk naval base.

A Ukrainian official has told multiple media outlets, including CNN and BBC, that a sea drone equipped with 450 kilograms of TNT had detonated at the hull and damaged the ship, which had about 100 Russian servicemen aboard when it happened. Via Sky News

“A big navy ship Olenogorsky Gornyak was hit,” the Ukrainian official identified in the statements. “As the result of the attack, the Russian ship has received serious damage and is not able to fulfill its duties.”

Video of the ship listing to one side while towed back to port.

The Olenegorsky Gornyak is an amphibious assault landing ship, also for rapidly unloading cargo and equipment on beaches, so this could to some degree impact resupplies of Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine’s security service has released a video purporting to show the moment the explosive-laden sea drone attacked the ship, thought to be the Olenegorsky Gornyak.

The video feed appears to cut out exactly upon detonation…

This fresh attack is likely to ensure Moscow doesn’t return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative deal, though the deal looked effectively dead regardless. Russia is likely to now ramp up its attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain silos, as the conflict continues to escalate toward “unlimited war”.

end

IRAN/USA

Pentagon thinking of placing USA troops on shipping tankers to prevent Iranian seizure

(zerohedge)

Pentagon Mulls Placing US Troops On Shipping Tankers To Prevent Iranian Seizure

THURSDAY, AUG 03, 2023 – 09:00 PM

The Pentagon is pursuing strategic ways to prevent further seizures of international vessels by Iran’s military, particularly in and near the vital Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf region. There’s been a series of tit-for-tat tanker seizures of late between Tehran and Washington, as the US attempts crude oil sanctions enforcement against Iran.

And now the US is mulling more drastic action, with The Associated Press reporting Thursday, “The U.S. military is considering putting armed personnel on commercial ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, in what would be an unheard of action aimed at stopping Iran from seizing and harassing civilian vessels,” per four American officials cited in the report. Some reports now suggest Marines are already being trained for the proposed program.Prior file image of Iranian naval forces seizing a Vietnamese tanker.

The ongoing ‘tanker wars’ began in the summer of 2019, and has more recently seen headlines such as the following: Quiet US Seizure Of Iranian Crude Prompted Iran’s Capture Of Houston-Destined Tanker.

No details have as of yet been revealed of the potential plan to place US military personnel aboard tankers entering ‘hot zones’ where Iranian naval patrols are known to frequent, but it comes following Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announcing that additional Marines have been sent to the Gulf region.

Austin said in late July that the USS Bataan amphibious readiness group and the 26th Marine Expeditional Unit have been deployed, which consists of about 2,500 Marines, to provide “even greater flexibility and maritime capability in the region.”

The amphibious readiness group consists of the Bataan warship and two others, the USS Mesa Verde and the USS Carter Hall. The group had already left Norfolk, Virginia earlier in July.

Weeks ago the Pentagon sent the USS Thomas Hudner and additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets to the region, to assist A-10 attack aircraft, as tankers have come under increasing threat – including an incident in which one was fired upon.

Interestingly, these additional measures against Tehran come in tandem with the US sending more advanced combat jets to the region in response to aggressive behavior from Russian aircraft over the skies of Syria. There’s also growing concerns that pro-Iranian elements will attack more US outposts in northeast Syria.

END

LEBANON

It will not be long before Lebanon finally succumbs

(zerohedge)

Caretaker PM Warns Lebanon’s Total Economic Collapse Imminent

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Via The Cradle,

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, warned on Thursday that the country’s total economic collapse will be imminent in the event that the Central Bank and its newly appointed governor fail to implement reform policies called for by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Lebanon will not be able to secure medicine or pay salaries in foreign currency, in the event that the monetary and economic plan presented by the Acting Governor of the Banque du Liban, Wassim Mansouri, is not approved,” the caretaker prime minister said. Via BBC

“Mansouri’s plan is consistent with the government’s plans, and our goal is to approve these plans and not waste time because the goal is to save the country,” he said.

In reference to consultations made recently between Mikati and the interim bank governor, the former said that there is “harmony [in the Central Bank] with the government’s plans.”

However, Lebanese media reported Thursday that the Central Bank is considering completely halting its funding of the state as of Monday, August 7.

Upon taking the reins of the Central Bank following the end of Riad Salameh’s term last month, Mansouri said: “I will not sign on any expenditure for financing the government if it contravenes with my principles or the appropriate legal framework.”

Days later, Lebanon’s parliament failed to pass a law that would allow the state to borrow foreign currency from the Central Bank. Mansouri’s condition for lending funds to the state from the Central Bank was the passing of the law, and the reimbursement of the funds “through a realistic plan,” Naharnet reported.

The reforms that the caretaker prime minister referred to include capital controls, a bank restructuring law, and the 2023 state budget – which are all conditions imposed by the IMF for a bailout package.

Lebanon has been negotiating with the IMF in order to secure a bailout package to alleviate the severe economic crisis created by decades of corruption in the financial sector.

However, Washington, the IMF, and the World Bank have been accused of exploiting the country’s economic crisis to exert political pressure on Lebanon. Najib Mikati, image: Middle East Online

As a result of the financial crisis Lebanon faces, the country’s currency has lost 98 percent of its value, and the life savings of a majority of citizens have been wiped out.

* * *

END

ROBERT H TO US ON THE DRONE ATTACK STORY!!

Ukrainian drone disables Russian warship near Russia’s Novorossiysk port | Reuters

Shame on the Russians for leaving themselves open to this damage.
However, the reality is control of this strike came from Romania and was by a NATO country.
One might say that the fight for control of the Black Sea has commenced. And yes, this is a calculated escalation. And this is not Ukrainian driven.
However, this was predicable and will run its course.

The bigger news not mentioned is that it appears Russian EW ( Electronic Warfare) testing of a new drone suppression system is successful under battlefield stress. In one area of the front line nicknamed “Bradley Square” (for all the Bradley vehicles that found their grave there) there has been no Ukrainian drone activity whatsoever during the last week. While there has been lot’s of Ukrainian drone activity elsewhere. It is in this area the Russians have been testing a new system. No doubt to soon be rolled out.
In modern 5 generational warfare control of the space in the sky is critical to avoid manpower and equipment loss due to drone strikes. One imagines that since the Russians can and have blocked Starlink and have an impressive IRS capability to see all ground activity that Russian advances in the future will be under the umbrella of this new system. And Russian drones operate on mathematical algorithms and not operator guided targeting making them immune to EW interference.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blasts-gunfire-reported-near-russian-black-sea-port-novorossiysk-2023-08-04/

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

‘UK Government Ignored The Lockdown Child Suicides’; well, so did the US government, Canadian government etc.; in fact, Fauci, Birx, Francis Collins, Walensky et al. extended & hardened lockdowns

The lockdowns & school closures costed lives and killed people, killed our children and we gave them data, we gave NIH, FDA etc. information but the CDC, NIH, FDA officials were lunatics, DID NOT CARE

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 3

This is why we be relentless and never stop asking questions and seeking accountability, getting all involved, all who made policy, all who made decisions, get them under oath:

UK Government Ignored The Lockdown Child Suicides.

END

‘Trump Threatens Retribution for Federal Charges: ‘SOON, IN 2024, IT WILL BE OUR TURN’; I agree, not retribution as much as use the same processes they use & punish them with it, all of them

Lock them up for a long time & include all those linked to FRAUD COVID pandemic crime, from the fraud lockdowns that killed to deadly mRNA technology injection, jail all linked e.g. Fauci, Birx etc.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 3

‘Former president Donald Trump promised his supporters that his reelection to the presidency would mean revenge on President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party for his ever-increasing legal troubles on Thursday.

“Look, it’s not my fault that my political opponent in the Democrat Party, Crooked Joe Biden, has told his Attorney General to charge the leading (by far!) Republican Nominee & former President of the United States, me, with as many crimes as can be concocted so that he is forced to spend large amounts of time & money to defend himself,” argued Trump on Truth Social. “The Dems don’t want to run against me or they would not be doing this unprecedented weaponization of “Justice.” BUT SOON, IN 2024, IT WILL BE OUR TURN. MAGA!”

On Tuesday, Trump was indicted on federal charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election by Special Counsel Jack Smith, who also leveled charges against Trump for his mishandling of classified documents in June.’

END

MAKIS: ‘WORLD FIRST: My new Epoch Times article titled “mRNA COVID Vaccines May Be Triggering ‘Turbo Cancers’ in Young People” is the FIRST EVER in depth analysis of how mRNA may cause Turbo Cancers!’

EXCELLENT SUBSTACK, over the target in that the COVID mRNA technology gene based injection vaccines are subverting the immune system and cancer GUARDIAN surveillance systems, causing cancers

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 4

COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis

WORLD FIRST: My new Epoch Times article titled “mRNA COVID Vaccines May Be Triggering ‘Turbo Cancers’ in Young People” is the FIRST EVER in depth analysis of how mRNA may be causing Turbo Cancers!

mRNA COVID Vaccines May Be Triggering ‘Turbo Cancers’ in Young People: Experts Megan Redshaw, J.D. Jul 28, 2023 Experts are seeing a puzzling rise in cancer in people under 50 that appears biologically different from late-onset cancers. While some claim

END

Wu et al. reported on Acute Kidney Injury Associated With Remdesivir via a Comprehensive Pharmacovigilance Analysis of COVID-19 Reports; why did CDC, FDA, Fauci, Walensky, NIH, Francis Collins ignore?

Acute kidney injury (AKI) events occurred in cases of male patients & those above the age of 65 years; detected a significant association between remdesivir & AKI: ROR = 2.81, 95% CI (2.48, 3.18).

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8990823/

‘More AKI events occurred in cases of male patients and those above the age of 65 years. We detected a significant association between remdesivir and AKI: ROR = 2.81, 95% CI (2.48, 3.18). The association was stronger after the propensity score matching ROR = 3.85, 95% CI (3.11, 4.78). The mean time to AKI event onset was 4.91 ± 7.25 days in COVID-19 cases with remdesivir therapy. The fatality proportion was 36.45% in AKI cases with remdesivir treatment. This pharmacovigilance study identified a significant association between AKI events and remdesivir treatment in COVID-19 patients by mining FAERS real-world big data. Although causality was not confirmed, the association between remdesivir and AKI should not be ignored, especially in the older, male COVID-19 inpatients.’

END

Tomi Lahren discusses the rushed deadly mRNA technology COVID gene injections (serious side effects cardiac arrest, strokes e.g. Tori Kelly, Bronny James, Jamie Foxx, Shane Warne, Damar Hamlin, Óscar

Cabrera Adames, Al Roker etc.); spike protein from vaccine is so un-natural, it is produced for an uncontrolled period & quantity, micro blood clots in retinal arteries 2 years after post shot

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 4

Triple combination of spike protein detoxification includes NATTOKINASE, Bromelain, Curcumin.

Nasal oral washes e.g. diluted povidone iodine 10%, diluted hydrogen peroxide, oral, swish and spit, no swallow, clean the nasal passage with Q-tips etc.

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

Dr. McCullough with “Fearless” Tomi Lahren

Watch now (9 min) | By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH I had a wonderful interview this week with media icon Tomi Lahren who is “Fearless” on OutKick to give a pandemic update and coverage of public figures with cardiac arrests and blood clots caused by COVID-19 vaccines, new milder Omicron variants and what to do if sick, testing, and censorship in the media by government sta…

end

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Pfizer to Cash In on Cardiovascular Treatments as Heart Attack Deaths Skyrocket Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is set to cash in on new cardiovascular treatments as heart failure cases and related deaths skyrocket around the world.READ MORE

Alan Dershowitz Turns Tables, Reveals ‘Jack Smith Can Be Indicted’ If Trump Wins Case Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz has warned Special Counsel Jack Smith that she could “be indicted” if the charges against President Donald Trump get thrown out of court.READ MORE

Obama Visited White House to Warn Biden about Trump’s Massive Popularity Barack Obama visited the White House for a private lunch where he warned Joe Biden about President Donald Trump’s massive popularity ahead of the 2024 election, according to reports.READ MORE

Eric Swalwell Gets Heckled at His Own Town Hall Event Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) got heckled while hosting a town hall with his own constituents, video shows.READ MORE

Washington Post Hits Biden with ‘Four Pinocchios’ over False Claim Hunter Never Took Money from China Leftist corporate media outlet the Washington Post has issued a “fact-check” on Democrat President Joe Biden’s false claim that his son Hunter never took money from China.READ MORE

NY Times: Biden ‘Privately’ Ordered AG Garland to ‘Take Decisive Action’ against Trump over Jan 6 Democrat President Joe Biden has been “privately” giving orders to his weaponized Department of Justice (DOJ) to take out his political rivals, according to a report from the New York Times.READ MORE

Disney Whistleblower Exposes ‘Woke’ Company’s Anti-Conservative Agenda A Disney whistleblower has spoken out to expose the company’s disturbing anti-conservative agenda.READ MORE

Elon Musk Sues Leftist Group over Campaign to ‘Scare’ Advertisers Away from Twitter X Corp. boss Elon Musk has sued a leftist organization behind a “scare campaign” that sought to bully advertisers away from Twitter over the social media platform’s free speech agenda.READ MORE

Massive Nationwide Sex Trafficking Bust Rescues 200 Victims, 59 Children – 194 Suspects Arrested Federal law enforcement officials have just announced that 200 victims, including 59 missing children, have been rescued during a massive, nationwide sex trafficking bust.READ MORE

Bill Maher & Sharon Osbourne Slam Democrat Party: ‘You’re Full of Sh*t and We Can See That’Liberal talk show host Bill Maher and infamous music manager Sharon Osbourne have trashed the Democrats and President Joe Biden.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Interviews Whistleblower Devon Archer, Exposes Biden Family: ‘Abuse of Soft Power’Star news anchor Tucker Carlson has interviewed Devon Archer, just days after the whistleblower testified against Democrat President Joe Biden and his family before Congress.READ MORE

Alan Dershowitz Predicts SCOTUS Will Overturn Trump Conviction: ‘There Is No Smoking Gun’Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz predicted the Supreme Court would overrule a conviction of President Donald Trump for the new charges he was hit with yesterday.READ MORE

Jesse Watters & Greg Gutfeld Dominate Competition, Deliver Top Shows in Industry for July Jesse Watters and Greg Gutfeld dominated the July ratings as Fox News continued to crush its rivals.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

NBA Star Launches Nike Alternative That’s Anti-Woke and Christian: ‘Our Values Are Valid’READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Rudy Giuliani Says Jack Smith Indictment Eviscerates First Amendment and Criminalizes Questioning Election ResultsRead more…Mike Pence Appears Supportive of Jack Smith Indictment, Gets Raided on X/Twitter ThreadRead more…Obama-Appointed Judge Assigned Donald Trump J6 CaseRead more…GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson Handcuffed, Detained While Trying to Help with Medical Emergency at RodeoRead more…WATCH: Vivek Releases Passionate Rebuke Of New Political Indictment Against Donald TrumpRead more…WATCH: Greg Gutfeld Goes Scorched Earth On New Trump Indictment: ‘It’s Criminalizing Speech’Read more…MUST SEE: Jesse Watters Absolutely BLISTERS New Trump Indictment In Epic RantRead more…MILITARY: “Bless The LORD Oh My Soul”Read more…

NEWS ADDICTS

VACCINE IMPACT/

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Oil Prices Hold At April Highs After OPEC+ Panel Report

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 08:23 AM

The OPEC+ monitoring committee recommended no changes to the coalition’s supply policy at an online meeting on Friday, according to a delegate.

The committee “will continue to closely assess market conditions” and noted that OPEC+ members are willing “to address market developments and stand ready to take additional measures at any time,” according to a statement on the organization’s website.

This recommendation follows Riyadh’s announcement yesterday that it will extend a unilateral cutback of 1 million barrels a day into September – and potentially deepen the reduction after that – to support a fragile market.

Bloomberg reports that The kingdom is getting some assistance from fellow OPEC+ member Russia, which is finally delivering on pledges to curb its supplies.

Moscow announced on Thursday it will also continue export restraints into September, but taper them slightly to 300,000 barrels a day.

The result was oil prices are holding back around $82 (WTI) at April highs (post-OPEC+ cut)…

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will convene again on Oct. 4, according to the statement, while the full 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is due to meet in late November.

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

NIGER

Ousted Niger President Urges US Intervention Amid Fears Wagner Could Move In

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, AUG 03, 2023 – 08:50 PM

Update(2050ET): On Thursday evening The Washington Post published an op-ed by the ousted president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, calling on the United States and the “entire international community” to intervene in order to restore him to power, and return the country to constitutional order.

He also stated in the Washington Post that he was writing “as a hostage”, at a moment unrest has persisted in the streets, following his overthrow by the military last Friday (and by his own presidential guard).

Earlier in the day the junta declared the formal withdrawal of Niger’s ambassadors from France, the US, Nigeria and Togo. There are now growing fears of an alliance between Niger’s military and Russia’s Wagner Group, which has a significant presence across West Africa and elsewhere on the continent.

The New York Times has speculated on this prospect, writing Wednesday:

A week after a military overthrow of Niger’s elected president, a coup leader and other officers flew to neighboring Mali on Wednesday to meet with its rulers, raising concerns that a key Western ally could grow closer to military leaders in Mali who partner with the Kremlin-backed Wagner private military company.

Gen. Salifou Modi, one of the putschists who removed President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger from power last week, was part of a delegation of military officials who visited Mali, according to a post on social media from the office of the president in Mali.

The Wagner group has about 1,500 troops in Mali, allied with the military regime there. Its founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, has praised the coup in Niger and offered Wagner’s services to the new rulers, though it is unclear what operational control he still has over the group after his failed mutiny in Russia in June.

Already the rhetoric of ‘Russia being behind the coup’ is growing, as a top Ukrainian official has already alleged this week. Is a Cold War 2.0 in Africa in the works?

* * *

As of late Wednesday (US time) the State Department ordered a partial evacuation of the American embassy in Niamey, the capital of Niger. This after European-led efforts to fly EU citizens from the capital were already well underway.

The State Department said non-emergency personnel and eligible family members would leave the country “given ongoing developments” and “out of an abundance of caution” amid the unrest following last Friday’s military coup, which saw President Mohamed Bazoum get overthrown by his own presidential guard. AFP/Getty Images

“The U.S. is committed to our relationship with the people of Niger. The embassy remains open, and our leaders are diplomatically engaged at the highest levels,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced. Senior officials will still be working from the embassy, which has remained functioning.

“Commercial flight options are limited. We updated our travel advisory to reflect this and informed U.S. citizens that we are only able to provide emergency assistance to U.S. citizens in Niger given our reduced personnel,” the statement said, also as France is leading evac flights for EU citizens seeking exit from the country.

Reportedly, hundreds of Americans have already been evacuated, and over 1,000 European Union citizens as well, as the flights out of the capital continue. France on Thursday announced the completion of its large-scale evacuations.

Meanwhile, in fresh statements President Joe Biden has urged the junta leaders to restore the democratically-elected government.

“I call for President Bazoum and his family to be immediately released, and for the preservation of Niger’s hard-earned democracy,” Biden said. “The Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders,” the US president said. “They have expressed their will through free and fair elections — and that must be respected.”

Ironically Biden’s plea to release and restore Bazoum came on the 63rd anniversary of Niger’s independence. His words also came amid rumors of possible French military intervention. There are hundreds of Western troops in the country, especially from France and the US, who were ostensibly there for ‘counterterror’ operations.

But the presence of Western bases in Niger might not last long under the junta, given ‘anti-imperialist’ nature of coup supporters in the streets has been amply demonstrated by their waving Russian flags. Also, the Russian mercenary group Wagner is just next door in Mali. From the West’s perspective, looming large in the background is expanding Russian influence in Africa.

Coup leader Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani is continuing to warned against “any interference in the internal affairs” of Niger, while alleging the now exiled government has been plotting with the French to allow some kind of intervention. This also as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday spoke to ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on Wednesday, and other international leaders have been in contact.

end

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0946 DOWN 0.0004

USA/ YEN 142.62 UP 0.070 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2702 DOWN 0.0015

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3382UP .0031 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 31 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN DOWN 118.59 PTS OR 0.61%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 7.62 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN UP 118.59 PTS OR 0.61%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.62 PTS OR .23%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.18%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 33.47 PTS OR 0.10%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1931.10

silver:$23.36

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 102.73 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.271% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.633% DOWN 0 AND 7//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.590 DOWN 4 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.204 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.528 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1039 UP 0.0088 or 88 basis points

USA/Japan: 141.71 DOWN 0.825 OR YEN UP 83 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2751 UP 0.0066 OR 66 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0014 OR 14 BASIS pts to 1.3337

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1717

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1789)

TURKISH LIRA: 26.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.633…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.077% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.227 DOWN 11 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 35.21 points or 0.47%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 58.48 PTS OR 0.37%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 54.54 PTS OR 0.75%

Spain IBEX UP 62.70 PTS OR 0.67%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 116.37 PTS OR 0.41%

WTI Oil price 82.59 12: EST

Brent Oil: 86.09 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 95.86; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 87//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5280 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4140 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1007 UP 0.0056 OR 56 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2749 UP .0033 or 33 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.423 % DOWN 8 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .636%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.87 DOWN 0.780 //YEN UP 78 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.33581 UP .0030 CDN dollar, DOWN 30 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82,62

Brent OIL: 85.98

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 15 BASIS pts to 4.043%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 14 BASIS PTS to 4.200%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 12 PTS AT 4.779%

USA dollar index: 101.82 DOWN 53 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.99 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 95.69 DOWN 0 AND 70/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 150.27 PTS OR 0.43%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 78.63 PTS OR 0.51%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.36 UP 1.44 PTS (9.05)%

GLD: $180.19 UP 0.65 OR 0.36%

SLV/ $21.63 UP ,03 OR 0.14%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Less Jobs, More Inflation: Stocks Puke, Oil Soars, Yield Curve Steepens

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Less jobs, slower Services and Manufacturing sector growth, sticky prices (ISM), and surging gasoline costs (thank you OPEC) – Bidenomics smells more like stagflation.

‘Hope’ has been in charge of macro data recently with ‘soft’ survey data surging back in its mean-reverting manner as ‘hard’ real data has been fading (led down by industrial, personal finance, and housing data)…

Source: Bloomberg

After a bloodbath in bond-land this week, today’s ugly jobs data sparked a bond-buying-panic (the belly outperformed today 5Y -15bps), sending yields at the shorter-end of the curve lower on the week (-10bps), though the long-end was still up around 20bps on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

No-one should be surprised by this purge in yields…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1687141094633480217&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fless-jobs-more-inflation-stocks-puke-oil-soars-yield-curve-steepens&sessionId=c84ff78d830c8934db197afecff1310669df888f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

Rate-hike expectations tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

On the stock side, AMZN and AAPL were the big movers (the former surging most since Nov as the latter tumbled by the most this year)…

Overall, they lost around $30 billion in market cap today…

Source: Bloomberg

That weighed on Nasdaq which was the week’s worst performer – its worst week since March. The Dow managed a bounce today – perfectly tagging unch for the week – before it all fell apart…

It seems Goldman’s Scott Rubner was on to something when he warned “fade the green” as stocks bounced this morning.

Options traders aggressively faded the bounce post-payrolls in stocks then they piled on as the S&P broke 4500…

Source: SpotGamma

The S&P plunged to 3-week lows…

None of which should have been a surprise given our warning.

‘Most Shorted’ stocks tumbled on the week – the first losing week in the last six…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX (and VVIX) were both higher on the week with significant volatility…

Source: Bloomberg

Back to bonds, the yield curve surged this week (2s30s steeper for the 9th straight day). Outside of the SVB collapse, the last two weeks have seen the biggest curve-steepening since April 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields reversed at key resistance levels from last November (or March’s SVB collapse)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the 3rd straight week, though today’s dovishness took some of the lipstick off. The reversal in the USD happened right at the pre-Payrolls dump level from July…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto continues to tread water with BTC hovering around $29k (after tagging $30k intraday during the week)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied on the day as the dollar sank but overall was lower for the second week in a row. Today’s post-payrolls jump echoed last month’s…

Oil prices surged to $83 (WTI) today after the OPEC+ panel’s recc and are up for the sixth straight week (longest streak since June 2022)…

…with WTI at its highest since November…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is a very bad thing for those who believed The Fed has beaten inflation – Pump prices are about to explode…

Source: Bloomberg

And this time Biden is out of options with the SPR… maybe time for another fist-bump?

Finally, you are here…

Source: Bloomberg

And, as Goldman notes, companies that are beating consensus ests by >1SD are only outperforming the S&P 500 by +70bps on the trading session directly following earnings. Typically beats outperform the S&P 500 by over 100bps.

In other words, it’s all priced-in.

b) THIS MORNING TRADING//PAYROLLS

Supposedly they added 187,000. However we got our famous plug B/D gain of 280,000 people

So real loss 93,000

the economy is softening terribly

(zerohedge)

July Payrolls Miss Expectations At 187K, Follow Big Downward Revisions, But Unemployment Rate Drops And Earnings Come In Hot

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 08:50 AM

Today’s jobs report was a tale of two opposites: on one hand, the monthly payrolls change for July missed expectations of 200K (and certainly the whisper number of 222K) printing at 187K, which would have been down from 200K and the lowest since Dec 2020… if only June wasn’t revised sharply lower to 185K (more on that below).

Today’s report was the second consecutive miss in a row for a series that until June had enjoyed 14 straight beats. You add in the 49,000 downward revision in payrolls for the previous two months, and the direction of travel here is clear: The labor market is softening.

In keeping in with Biden admin’s penchant of constantly fabricating data, both May and June numbers were revised sharply lower of course:

May revised down by 25,000, from +306,000 to +281,000
June was revised down by 24,000, from +209,000 to +185,000.

To show just how ridiculous the data manipulation is, consider this chart – every monthly payrolls report in 2023 has been revised lower.

And if the rigging wasn’t enough, the Birth/Death model laughably added 280K excel spreadsheet “jobs”, the second biggest monthly increase of 2023.

Putting the month’s 187,000 gain in context, while effectively the smallest since 2020, it is still a historically strong figure for Fed purposes. Economists estimate the US needs fewer than 100,000 in net new jobs to account for increases in population. Looking at the 2018-19 period, payroll gains averaged 163,000 over those two years.

But while the headline numbers were ugly – if still allowing the White House to claim victory for a 2K rebound from the downward revised June print, where the Fed will be scratching its head is in the unemployment rate which unexpectedly dropped back to 3.5% from 3.6% (and missing exp of an unchanged print), meaning that the Fed’s expectations for an unemployment rate spike to 4% by year-end will have to be revised or Powell will have to hike even more.

The unemployment rate fell mainly because more job seekers found jobs, rather than due to people leaving the labor force.

While the jobless rate for Blacks dipped to 5.8%, that for Hispanics (4.4%) rose while whites (3.1%) were unchanged.

The labor force participation rate was 62.6% for the fifth consecutive month. The employment-population ratio, at 60.4% remained little changed in July.

There was more confusion in the wage numbers, with average hourly earnings coming in hotter than the 4.2% Y/Y expected, at 4.4% or unchanged from last month; on a monthly basis the increase was 0.4%, hotter than the 0.3% expected and matching last month’s increase.

That said, one reason why hourly earnings went up is because hours worked went down, to 34.3 hours, matching the lowest level since the spring of 2020, during the brunt of the Covid crisis. Just another sign of the job market softening.

As Bloomberg economists put it, “it is starting to look like both the all-employees and the production-and-nonsupervisory measures have been re-accelerating over the last several months.“

Here are some more details from the report:

Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff decreased by 175,000 to 667,000 in July.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in July and accounted for 19.9 percent of all unemployed persons.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.0 million, changed little in July. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.2 million in July, little changed from the prior month. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was essentially unchanged at 1.4 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 335,000 in July.

On the Household Survey side, things were a little better, with the number employed jumping by 268K to 161.262 million. This was the 2nd month in a row the Household survey showed better job gains that Establishment.

And speaking of the Establishment survey, here is the seasonally adjusted breakdown of major job categories.

In July, health care added 63,000 jobs, or about a third of all job gains in July, compared with the average monthly gain of 51,000 in the prior 12 months. Over the month, job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+35,000), hospitals (+16,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,000).
Social assistance added 24,000 jobs in July, in line with the average monthly gain of 23,000 in the prior 12 months. Individual and family services added 19,000 jobs over the month.
Employment in financial activities increased by 19,000 in July. The industry had added an average of 16,000 jobs per month in the second quarter of the year, after employment was essentially flat in the first quarter. Over the month, a job gain in real estate and rental and leasing (+12,000) was partially offset by a loss in commercial banking (-3,000).
In July, employment in wholesale trade increased by 18,000, after showing little net change in recent months.
Employment in the other services industry continued to trend up in July (+20,000), compared with the average monthly gain of 15,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in personal and laundry services continued to trend up over the month (+11,000). Employment in other services remains below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 53,000, or 0.9 percent.
Construction employment continued to trend up in July (+19,000), in line with the average monthly gain of 17,000 in the prior 12 months. Over the month, job growth occurred in residential specialty trade contractors (+13,000) and in nonresidential building construction (+11,000).
In July, employment in leisure and hospitality was little changed (+17,000). The industry has shown little employment change in recent months, following average monthly gains of 67,000 in the first quarter of the year. Employment in leisure and hospitality remains below its February 2020 level by 352,000, or 2.1 percent.
Employment in professional and business services changed little in July (-8,000). Monthly job growth in the industry had averaged 38,000 in the prior 12 months. Employment in temporary help services continued to trend down over the month (-22,000) and is down by 205,000 since its peak in March 2022. Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services continued to trend up in July (+24,000).
Manufacturing employment dropped by 2,000. This was a standout as the sector had been expected to add 5,000 jobs. It’s a surprise given all the focus on capex in the EV, chips, battery plant and green-energy space.

Of special note, employment at full-service restaurants notched its first decline since January 2021. Overall restaurant employment eked out a small increase, however, thanks to another strong month of hiring at quick-service restaurants.

* * *

Commenting on the report, Florian Ielpo of Lombard Odier Asset Management, was downbeat noting that “the report is probably less positive than it looks at first sight. Half of the sectors reporting have now stopped hiring workers. This is the first month in ten years showing that dynamic with so much clarity. Last month 54% of sectors were hiring, in July that number has fell to 50%,” he says.

“In the end, this is not the kind of job report the Fed will be happy with: job creations have normalized, not declined. Even worse, the unemployment rate has declined not increased – markets are likely to treat that kind of details with caution and the volatility of rates is unlikely to fall back with that high a level of uncertainty.”

Dominic Konstam, head of macro strategy at Mizuho Securities, was also on the glass half empty side: “There is light at the end of the tunnel in terms of eventual softening in labor market,” he said, pointing out that “strength in payrolls was driven by construction and health/education +100k,” and “this sector is one of those that has struggled to get back to trend so it is finally normalizing after Covid. Outside those sectors, jobs would have been just 60kish.”

Others were more cheerful: former Fed Governor and University of Chicago professor Randall Kroszner said that “This is still a pretty strong report,” and adds that the hawks at the Fed will be focusing on the wage growth, and that will be the “real concern” for them.

Echoing this, Bloomberg’s Enda Curran writes that “Powell is probably pointing to the wage numbers this morning as the reason why he has been continuing his hawkish warnings. His Jackson Hole speech this month is going to be very interesting.”

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, agreed, noting that this report is not one that will allow the Fed to get meaningfully more dovish.

“Sure, payrolls came in a little below estimates + downward revision, but 13k or 49k (whichever way you want to read it) in a labor force of >150mm is not that meaningful. So that’s the good-ish. The bad-ish is the unemployment rate fell with the labor force participation holding steady, and MoM growth in wages was above estimate.”

Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities, says the jobs report is “one data point and the Fed will continue to look at the totality of the data.” But that does not spare the bond market from its recent weakness, with a subtle shift in tone as the front end is now leading the selling pressure: “This report, unlike the downgrade narrative, is more specific to the economy and Fed policy, so a bit more sensitivity on the front end makes sense to us.”

And now, with the jobs report in the rear mirror, Treasury supply is going to be the main driver of the rates market, particularly with new sales of 10-, and 30-years next week. Long-dated Treasury yields are sharply lower in kneejerk reaction to the jobs miss, but don’t expect that status to hold: “This turns our attention back to supply,” says George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG. “The market will try to extract as much of a yield concession as possible to push up coupon levels. The key will be post-auction price action next week versus the setup though.”

end

Dollar & Bond Yields Tumble After ‘More Or Less Benign’ Payrolls Print

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 09:18 AM

Rate-hike expectations have slipped lower following this morning’s disappointing payrolls print. Sept remains around a 20% chance of a rate-hike, but the rest of the year has seen higher terminal rates dragged notably lower…

The short-end of the TSY yield curve has tumbled…

And while the longer-end is also seeing yields slide, the chart below offers context on the week’s move…

The dollar is fading on the dovish shift…

And that is sparking a bid under gold…

Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir offers a kneejerk reaction to the ‘more or less benign’ report…

After Wednesday’s much stronger than expected ADP jobs report (324k) helped spark selling in treasuries, today’s report should take some pressure off the Fed and rates.

The headline number “missed” with “only” 187k jobs created, just a tad lower than expectation of 200k.

What struck me as most interesting, is they revised down prior reports by 49k. That follows last month’s downward revisions of 110k. When looking at the headline number and revisions, it is clear, at least in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the labor market has cooled.

JOLTS also had the fewest job openings in over 2 years – going back to April 2021. The openings are still high by historical standards but declining steadily (I’m in the camp that they are overstated due to how companies use various web services to “hire” or at least encourage resumes to be sent in). The QUIT rate has settled in around 2.4, which is barely above what it averaged in 2018 and 2019, prior to COVID.

The Household survey came in slightly better than the Establishment survey generating 268k jobs, just enough to nudge the employment rate down to 3.5%. That might catch the Fed’s eye, but I don’t think it will prompt them into action. The number of people working part time because they cannot find full time employment continues to trickle higher. Not a big deal, but interesting to watch.

Could the Fed be scared by average earnings? The monthly data was up 0.4% (again, and just above expectations of 0.3%) helping keep the annual rate at 4.4%. Sure, wages remain high and my news-stream is filled with employment and wage news, but will that continue if the labor market “normalizes”? The Fed cannot like this number, but on its own, I don’t think it is enough to make the Fed act.

Again, I think the Fed is TRULY DATA DEPENDENT, which means they will take into account a lot of data, over a period of time, and are no longer looking for any excuse to hike.

Bottom Line

I think the move in rates is overdone and we will see yields creep lower, which should support stocks, though I’m still skewed towards the “laggards” over the Magnificent Seven.

Look for rate vol to renew its march lower now that we’ve made it through NFP. I do think curves continue on their path of less inversion, though 2s vs 10s getting back to 72 has been a big move.

I suspect the price action of the past few days has renewed short interest in rates, credit and equities and that could be the catalyst to renewing the grind higher (for stocks, especially the laggards and equal weighted indices) and tighter for credit spreads. Fighting the trend and consensus in August is fraught with difficulty!

And on one final note, the downgrade of the U.S. government by Fitch led not only to several quotations from Academy, including in the NY Times and FT, but brought back memories as the very first time I was on Bloomberg TV, was Friday August 5th, 2011, the day that S&P downgraded the U.S. It turned what was more of a “screen test” with Pimm Fox into a much more lively segment!

Looking forward to an interesting August!

end

Dissecting the awful jobs report

Inside Today’s Disastrous Jobs Report: 1 Million Surge In Part-Time Jobs As Full-Timers Crash Amid Staggering Downward Revisions

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 01:05 PM

While the prevailing post-payrolls narrative has focused on the divergence between the soggy headline payrolls print (which at 187K not only missed expectations for a second consecutive month, but was the lowest number since Dec 2020), and the stronger than expected hourly earnings (which beat expectations only because hours worked dropped again to 34.3, a level last seen in the pre-covid days) and the drop in unemployment rate (which brings us even further from the Fed’s year-end dot plot target of 4.1%, a closer look at the details of today’s jobs report reveals just how ugly the reality behind the the Budget-Busting Bidenomics truly is.

Let’s start with revisions.

Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which – without fail – had been revised lower…

… and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from every single month has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.

But that’s just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were actually not that terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey( may have been weak at 187K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually increased by 268K to 161.3 million, the second month in a row the Household Survey bested the Establishment.

So far so good. There are just two problems with this number. First, the Birth-Death (B-D) model, which is integrated into the BLS’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) release, which contains the NFPs and which serves as one of the core “tweak” layers which the BLS uses to adjust the actual, raw underlying jobs number and goalseek a desired jobs number. It will not come as a surprise to many that in July, the Birth Death adjustment hit the second highest of 2023 at 280K. In other words, most if not all job “gains” were as a result of the BLS assuming that newly “birthed” “businesses created at least 280K new jobs, a number which is not based at all on observable facts but is a regression to some historical trendline which only the BLS is privy to.

Unfortunately, it gets much worse, because while the Establishment Survey only looks at jobs quantitatively, the Household Survey (which again was stronger this month) also looks at the quality of jobs gained or lost, and specifically it breaks down the jobs into full-time and part-time jobs (Source: Table A-9).

Well, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in July the number of full-time jobs plunged by 585,000 to 134.274 million, the biggest monthly drop since record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!

But if full-time jobs crashed how did the BLS get an increase of almost 300,000 employed workers? Simple: it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In July, the number of part-timers exploded by almost one million – 972K to be precise – to 27.153 million.

Finally, going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders – those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In July, that number surged by 118K, and at 8.113 million was just shy of the pre-covid record hit in July 2019.

Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in July the US added 187K payrolls, and the number of employed workers rose by 268K. However, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in July, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 585K, offset by a 972K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 118K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.

In short: July was a catastrophic month for the jobs market, which is why we expect the usual theater: non-stop spin and lies from the Biden admin, and not a single relevant question from the liberal media whose job is not to educate or inform, but to carry water, spread lies and enable propaganda.

II) USA DATA/

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Regional banks are in trouble as the Fed’s emergency bailout facility hits a new high, north of one hundred billion dollars. This money must be replaced in 7 months.

Usage Of Fed’s Emergency Bailout Facility Hits New High; Money-Market Inflows Continue

THURSDAY, AUG 03, 2023 – 04:40 PM

US Money Market funds saw a third straight week of inflows ($29 billion this past week) to a new record high of $5.15 trillion…

Source: Bloomberg

Retail money-market funds saw inflows for the 15th straight week (and institutional funds also saw a second straight week of inflows)…

Source: Bloomberg

The decoupling between money-market fund inflows and bank deposits continues…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank for the 8th straight week, tumbling $36.6 billion on the week to its lowest since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

As far as QT is concerned, The Fed is back to selling with Securities down almost $33 billion on the week to its lowest since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Usage of The Fed’s emergency bank bailout facility rose by $606 million to a new record high at $106 billion…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US equity markets continue to diverge significantly from bank reserves at The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

We leave you with one thought – in 7 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $100-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically). Will regional bank balance sheets be stabilized by then? Or will the current bloodbath in bonds be the catalyst for another round of pain?

END

No. of Americans not able to afford a $400 surprise bill continues unabated.

(zerohedge)

Number Of Americans Able To Afford $400 Surprise Bill Slides In Era Of ‘Bidenomics’

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 07:45 AM

As inflation and economic uncertainty crush American households, only 46% of adults have emergency savings to cover a $400 expense in the third quarter. That is two percentage points lower than survey results from the second quarter, as it appears the financial well-being of consumers is deteriorating.

“The share of U.S. adults who said they would cover a $400 emergency expense with cash or equivalents dropped by 2 percentage points from the previous quarter to 46%, highlighting how cash-strapped many Americans are despite the recent decrease in headline inflation,” according to the survey developed by Bloomberg and conducted by intelligence company Morning Consult.

A majority of the 11,000 adults surveyed said they would either need to depend on debt or be unable to cover an emergency expense:

35% of respondents said they would need to use at least some debt, steady from the previous quarter,
while an increasing share, 19%, said they would not be able to pay at all

Morning Consult explained the depressing trend:

“Households are seeing excess savings dwindle with prices still elevated after two years of high inflation, leaving less wiggle room in budgets for unexpected expenses.”

… and so much for ‘Bidenomics‘ sparking what the White House has touted as an economic renaissance. Readers know this propaganda from the Biden administration is malarkey (read: here).

The reality is a $400 emergency expense for the working poor is nearly impossible to pay while borrowing rates are at two-decade highs. Meanwhile, high earners were more than twice as likely as low-income folks to pay the emergency expense with cash or equivalents.

One major problem is that many Americans lack the crucial savings to manage short-term emergencies and build long-term wealth.

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS

END.

SWAMP STORIES

Stockman Warns “American Democracy Will Pay A Terrible Price” For Jack Smith’s Insouciance

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 12:00 AM

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The Saturday Night Massacre That Wasn’t And The Threat Of Incumbent Party Rule

Talk about a coup d’ etat… even an existential threat to American Democracy. We’ve got it now. In spades.

We are referring to Jack Smith’s latest bogus indictment of Donald Trump, of course. Handing it down just as the Hunter Biden/Biden Crime Family saga is reaching its denouement, the Special Counsel has now proven himself to be a veritable anti-Thomas Jefferson, brandishing what amounts to a malefic Declaration of Incumbent Party Rule.

That’s truly the gravamen of this 45 page abomination. It has nothing to do with justice or the rule of law or the protection of Democracy, and everything to do with triggering a trial clock in the DC District Court that will result in a guaranteed guilty verdict before November 5, 2024.

And should that succeed, no incumbent party will ever again go into a presidential election without mobilizing the machinery of the DOJ to its partisan advantage. After all, this is the ultimate weaponization of the judicial branch of American government by the Incumbent Party—an attempt to cancel an election via “preventive detention” of the leading candidate of the Opposition.

Is this not the very thing that Banana Republics do? Is this political screed in the guise of an “indictment” not a fatal blow to the very essence of free elections-based democracy—the absolute insulation of the machinery of government from partisan influence and elections interference?

As it happens, this matter was settled long ago—way back in the Congressional elections of 1938, which swept the New Dealers from the US House and Senate. During the prior presidential election, FDR had wiped GOP candidate Alf Landon off the map—with no small help from millions of WPA employees who had been required to vote for Roosevelt in order to get on the Federal dole. But in those fair times the electorate was having none of the Incumbent Party using their tax dollars to re-elect itself, thereby putting the New Deal Democrats out to pasture for decades to come.

But now comes something far more nefarious. Not a mere bribe of the voters via tax dollars shuffled into their pockets, but use of the government’s badge, guns and detention facilities to insure that even a candidate as decrepit and unfit for purpose as Joe Biden enjoys a Rooseveltian sweep in 2024 for want of the leading opposition candidate’s name on the ballot.

To be sure, we do not quarrel with the end game here. To wit, the Donald is utterly unfit for the nation’s highest office. He never should have stumbled into the job by a hairline 100,000 votes in three battleground states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) in 2016, and must not be allowed within a country-mile of the 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue ever again.

But safeguarding the republic from Donald Trump’s egomaniacal incompetence, bilious rants, uninformed laziness, flagrant delusions and principle-free quest for power and glory is the job of the voters.

If they do not understand by now that they made one mistake, it is not the job of a rogue prosecutor to nail shut the GOP-side of the ballot box in order to save them from another.

And we do mean rogue prosecutor. Jack Smith has penned a potent Opposition Research paper, but it is utterly bogus as a criminal indictment. That’s because it embodies exactly the age-old ploy used by all zealous prosecutors when the don’t have hard evidence of a specific crime. To wit, they cobble together a spurious “conspiracy” narrative from a string of wholly legal and/or prosaic actions and events involving the defendant, and then backdate them with mens rea (guilty intent) and the assertion that that everything contained in the resulting made-for-TV narrative was done “knowingly”.

Well, when it comes to the very inner sanctum of American democracy—the conduct of free and honest national elections—that threadbare ploy is definitely not OK. Even when applied to crime bosses and alleged white collar miscreants, conspiracy charges are a prosecutors’ racket that more often than not results in an unfair miscarriage of justice.

But when applied to the leading Opposition Candidate for acts and behaviors that were par for the Trumpian course, done in the wide open public and which were essentially an exercise, albeit a reckless one, in protected speech, a conspiracy indictment is just plain beyond the pale.

For crying out loud. The criminal prosecution of an ex-president and current election front-runner entails a super-duper heavy burden of proof, not just enough plausibility to get a Mafia don into court. To the contrary, it needs be predicated upon a damn serious “high crime” and provable criminal actions by the target that actively threatened America’s national security or core democratic processes.

By contrast, Jack Smith’s latest indictment is the very opposite. It’s self-evidently another exercise in prosecutorial “I gotcha”, and is even more tortured than the classified documents case. For instance, Trump retweeted a post labeling the Republican leaders of the Pennsylvania legislature as “cowards” on December 4, 2020. By the lights of Jack Smith that exercise in social media dissing was evidence of Trump’s complicity in a felonious conspiracy.

The same thing happened when several weeks later VP Pence called Trump to wish him Merry Christmas and Trump turned the conversation to the vice president’s role in the upcoming electoral vote count. So by merely raising the topic about an event to occur two weeks later, and a potential action by Pence that was still legally in play at least in the minds of a minority of Trump’s advisors, the sitting president of the United States thereby participated in said felonious conspiracy!

The indictment is packed with pages on end of such legal humbug. But before you get lost in the utter trivia, it needs be remembered that we are actually in the midst of a fraught exercise in democracy, not a law school Moot Court proceeding on the proposition, taken in splendid abstraction, that no one is above the law.

The plain fact is that Smith’s 45 pages of purported nefarious doings do not embody a criminal conspiracy at all. What the indictment actually describes is TrumpWorld at work in all of its pandemonium, bickering, incompetence and shoot-from-the hip recklessness. The self-evident reason that Trump pursued the election fraud canard right up until the wee hours of January 7th, when the electors finally certified Biden’s victory, is that the man is a megalomaniacal brute who just won’t take “no” for an answer.

After all, by then nearly everyone who knew anything had told him that the election was over, that he had lost and that while the election reeked from the odor of an unprecedented 60 million mail-in votes and massive but dubious Democrat “ballot harvesting”, the level of provable fraud did not rise to anything remotely determinative of a different outcome. In fact, his Attorney General, Bill Barr, had bailed weeks earlier, the White House counsels office had given up the ghost and three days earlier Trump himself had chickened out of the required Saturday Night Massacre redux.

That is, when he threatened to put the last remaining election fraud believer, Assistant Attorney General Jeffrey Clark (co-conspirator #4), in the top DOJ spot on January 3rd, the acting AG and acting deputy AG threatened to resign. And they warned that much of the top DOJ escheleon would go with them.

But as Senator Lloyd Bentsen of 1992 vice-presidential debate fame might of said in behalf of the Washington ruling class, “We knew Dick Nixon, and you are no Tricky Dick.”

That is to say, Trump is a bully and blowhard, but ultimately a big chicken. To actually have committed the crime of election interference he would have had to fire the entire top tier of the DOJ on January 3rd, get a dubious opinion from their replacements that the Vice President had the constitutional authority to reject the Biden electors from the six battleground states (see below) and then intimidate Pence until he complied with Trump’s wishes.

Alas, the Donald didn’t have the cojones. And when push-came-to-shove his own government resisted his petulant defiance of the facts and law at every turn.

So there was no conspiracy and no threat to Democracy.

There was just the bitter end obstinance and bombast of a defeated old bully and his drunken companion, Rudy Giuliani, who had once capriciously welded the badge and gun that is soon to come down on his own head, too.

Still, expressing disagreement with and contradicting the advice of 95% of your advisors in a public venue like social media is not a crime, and not proof of a lie.

Likewise, endlessly pestering your Vice-President to read the constitution—to the effect that he could send the Biden electors home—in a manner that virtually all the lawyers in the vicinity of the nation’s Capitol disagreed with is not a crime, either.

At the end of the day the bomb that got dropped on American democracy last night by the beltway puppeteers who stage-manage Joe Biden is just a lengthy catalogue of all the advice that Trump rejected—advice that said he was wrong about whether there was sufficient fraud to alter the outcome of the election.

Indeed, even by the time the state electors first meet on December 16th the “rampant fraud” horse being paraded by nincompoops like Rudy Giuliani and the other alleged co-conspirators was pretty much out the barn-door. The fact that Trump persisted in grasping for its disappearing rear-end right until the end on January 6th is powerful reason why he is not qualified to serve again.

For want of doubt, recall that the popular vote was not even close with Biden’s 81.2 million ballots exceeding Trump’s 74.2 million by more than 7 million or 9%. Far more importantly, Trump’s electoral college deficit in the six swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania was 79 votes compared to Biden’ winning margin of 74 votes (306 to 232). Accordingly, there had to be sufficient fraud—–311,000 votes worth—- in these states to swing every one of them in the Donald’s favor and thereby alter the national outcome.

Well, here are the vote margins in these six state’s that had to be overcome by expurgation of any and all votes fraudulently cast or counted. Yet by mid-December every one of the big claims regarding dead voters in Georgia or a midnight ballot dump in Michigan or 2o3,000 more votes than voters in Pennsylvania had been pretty much debunked.

For instance, upon investigation the Republican governor of Georgia has admitted to only 2 dead voters, not the 10,000 that Trump had claimed. Similarly, the 203,000 more votes than voters in Pennsylvania turned out to be less than 8,000, as far as we can tell from official election results. And the mid-night dump of ballots in Detroit has apparently been par for the course in that godforsaken jurisdiction for a good while and thereby an indication of incompetence, not fraud.

In that regard, the Republican Speaker of the Michigan House said all there was to be said about the Donald’s errant campaign to extract victory from the jaws of defeat—not only in Michigan but in the six contested states generally:

We’ve diligently examined these reports of fraud to the best of our ability. … … I fought hard for President Trump. Nobody wanted him to win more than me. I think he’s done an incredible job. But I love our republic, too. I can’t fathom risking our norms, traditions and institutions to pass a resolution retroactively changing the electors for Trump, simply because some think there may have been enough widespread fraud to give him the win. That’s unprecedented for good reason. And that’s why there is not enough support in the House to cast a new slate of electors. I fear we’d lose our country forever. This truly would bring mutually assured destruction for every future election in regards to the Electoral College. And I can’t stand for that. I won’t.

Number of Electoral Votes and Popular Vote Difference By Swing State:

Arizona (11 electoral votes; 10,457 votes)
Georgia (16 electoral votes; 11,779 votes)
Michigan (16 electoral votes; 154,188 votes)
Nevada (6 electoral votes; 33,596 votes)
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes; 80,555 votes)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes; 20,682 votes)

In any event, it is evident from the above summary that the numbers just weren’t remotely there. Yet Trump persisted until there was almost no one left even in his inner circle except crackpots who thought he won. He thus tweeted this bit of bombast at 6:01 PM on January 6th when it was all over except the shouting:

“These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long……

That’s smoking gun enough. Donald J. Trump disqualified himself for another term then and there by issuing this preposterous bit of bombast.

And yet, and yet. That outcome was a matter for the voters to decide, not a rogue prosecutor leading a partisan witch-hunt.

In truth, this action by the weaponized Biden Justice Department amounts to a present day variation of the aphorism immortalized by Stalin’s security chief, Levrenti Beria:

“Show me Donald Trump and I’ll show you the crime”.

Prosecutor Smith has done exactly that now for the second time in as many months. And American democracy will pay a terrible price for such insouciance for a long time to come.

END

This is a must read.

Victor Davis Hanson on our two sets of laws for two Americas

(Victor Davis Hanson)

Victor Davis Hanson: Two Sets Of Laws For Two Americas

THURSDAY, AUG 03, 2023 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Two sets of laws now operate in an increasingly unrecognizable America…

Consider the matter of unlawfully removing and storing classified papers.

Donald Trump may go to prison for removing contested White House files to his home.

So far Joe Biden seems exempt from just such legal jeopardy.

But as a senator and Vice President with no right, as does a president, to declassify files, Biden removed and, as a private citizen kept for years classified files in unsecure locations.

Biden’s team strangely revealed the unlawful removals after years of silence.

It did so because the Biden administration found itself in the untenable position of prosecuting the former president for “crimes” that the current president committed as well—albeit far earlier and longer.

Impeachable phone calls?

Donald Trump was impeached by a Democratic House for delaying foreign aid until the Ukrainian government guaranteed that Hunter Biden and his family were no longer engaged in corrupt influence peddling in Kyiv.

In addition, the Left charged that Trump was targeting Joe Biden, his possible 2020 rival.

Yet Biden, with impunity, bragged that he had fired a Ukrainian prosecutor looking into his own son’s schemes by promising to cancel outright American foreign aid.

And the Biden administration’s Justice Department is now targeting Trump, currently the frontrunning challenger to Biden in 2024.

Election denialism?

Trump was indicted by Special Counsel Jack Smith, in part for supposedly conspiratorially “unlawfully discounting legitimate votes.”

Will Smith then also indict Stacey Abrams? For years Abrams falsely claimed that she was the real governor of Georgia. She toured the country in hopes of “discounting” the state vote count.

Or maybe Smith was referring to the conspiracist and former president Jimmy Carter.

He alleged that Trump in 2016 “lost the election, and he was put into office because the Russians interfered on his behalf.”

Will Smith charge Hillary Clinton?

She serially libeled Trump as an “illegitimate” president.

Clinton hatched the Russian collusion hoax, and bragged she joined the “Resistance” to continue her attacks on an elected president.

Or maybe Smith meant the Hollywood crowd.

Lots of actors cut commercials after the 2016 election—begging viewers to pressure the electors to ignore their constitutional duties to honor their states’ popular vote and instead swing their ballots to Hillary Clinton?

Was not that “insurrectionary?”

Or was Smith thinking of January 2005?

Then 32 Democratic House members and Sen. Barbara Boxer tried to nullify the legally certified vote in Ohio—to thereby elect the loser John Kerry.

How about destroying evidence?

Trump was also indicted for allegedly attempting to erase video material from his own cameras in his own house.

Yet Hillary Clinton with impunity eliminated subpoenaed communication devices and thousands of emails.

Violations of security? Trump was indicted for supposedly loosely talking about classified material to visitors at his home.

So will prosecutor Smith’s indictments also extend to Hillary Clinton?

She sent classified documents illegally over her unsecure private server.

FBI Director James Comey memorialized a confidential president conversation.

Then he deliberately leaked what properly was a classified document to the media. It was all part of Comey’s Machiavellian gambit to prompt the appointment of a favorable special prosecutor.

What about subversion of the electoral process?

Donald Trump was indicted for supposedly undermining the election of 2020 by questioning the integrity of the balloting.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign illegally hired two foreign nationals Christopher Steele and Igor Danchenko to compile falsehoods about her opponent Trump.

Clinton hid her payments behind three paywalls.

Her team, along with the FBI, helped leak the counterfeit dossier to the media and high officials to undermine her opponent—and thus subvert the election itself.

Lying and perjury?

Two Trump aides and Trump himself are indicted for supposedly stonewalling federal investigators by claiming either amnesia or ignorance.

That tact is exactly what James Comey did 245 times while under oath before Congress.

What do former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, former Director of the CIA John Brennan, and former interim FBI Director Andrew McCabe all have in common?

All three admitted they flagrantly lied either under oath to Congress or to federal investigators.

The three were never indicted for their false and perjurious testimonies.

We have now serially devolved from the 2016 election “Russian collusion” hoax, to the 2020 election “Russian disinformation” laptop hoax, and down to the 2024 election weaponized indictments.

Out of pathological hatred or fear of Donald Trump, the Left has crafted one set of laws for themselves, and another for all other Americans.

They smugly believe their own moral superiority grants them such a right to apply laws unequally—or to ignore them altogether.

To retain power at all cost, and to destroy a political rival, leftwing Democrats are systematically dismantling the constitutional foundations of the United States as we once knew them.

END

ROBERT H TO US

A MUST VIEW….MARK LEVIN!!!

Crazy business

END

The Biden-China Energy Nexus: Text Messages Reveal Intricate Web Of Influence

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 10:40 AM

Text messages recently given to the FBI reveal that a Chinese energy company, CEFC, sought to leverage connections to Hunter Biden in order to acquire domestic energy assets within the United States.

The intricate narrative began in late 2015, as CEFC was hoping to leverage the Biden name to provide cover for its ambitious plan, Just the News reports.

The overtures began subtly, as Hunter Biden’s business partner, James Gilliar, began laying the foundation of an influence peddling scheme.

“There will be a deal between one of the most prominent families from US and them (China) constructed by me,” texted Hunter Biden business partner James Gilliar to future partner Tony Bobulinski on Christmas Eve, 2015, just after Hunter had been alerted to CEFC China Energy’s ambitions, and its wealthy CEO Ye Jianming.

“I think this will then be a great addition to their portfolios as it will give them a profile base in NYC, then LA, etc,” Gilliar added in the text, which was obtained by JTN. “For me it’s a no brainer but culturally they are different, but smart so let’s see. … Any entry ticket is small for them. Easier and better demographic than Arabs who are little anti US after trump.”

The messages corroborate testimony this week from former Hunter Biden business associate Devon Archer, who detailed Hunter’s influence peddling scheme by which he and father Joe came as a “brand” package to help foreign clients seeking influence.

CEFC’s plans were unearthed in the exchanges between Hunter Biden and his Chinese counterparts. Plans were made for meetings and dinners – some materializing while others fizzled. One such dud was a Dec. 6, 2015 dinner planned for Hunter and Ye, which was going to be hosted by Serbian businessman Vuc Jeremic, per the emails. Hunter eventually did meet later that month with CEFC Executive Director Jianjun Zang, according to information on Hunter’s infamous laptop.

By March 2016, the narrative had evolved significantly. Memo drafts, masterminded by Hunter Biden’s business associates, Rob Walker and Gilliar, materialized, bearing Hunter Biden’s signature and destined for CEFC. An email trail titled “H to Zang Draft” captured the essence of the strategic pact. This marked a pivotal moment, elevating the Biden family name as a sought-after commodity in the high-stakes world of energy acquisition.

The ensuing years, the Chinese energy deal had all the earmarks of a Biden influence peddling campaign, including (per JTN):

Ye would meet with Hunter Biden and gift him with a 3-carat diamond mto the future first son in February 2017.
Joe Biden also met with CEFC officials, according to an FBI interview report of Rob Walker made public by IRS whistleblowers in their testimony to Congress
Emails from Bobulinski would reference a deal involving “the big guy” and a possible 10 percent share of the deal for Joe Biden.
Hunter Biden would send a stinging message to a CEFC executive demanding payment in summer 2017, even suggesting that his father was standing beside him as he sent the angry message.
Hunter Biden would set up an office in Washington DC for the venture and ask that keys be made for his father, mother and uncle as well as one of the CEFC “emissaries” from China.

As JTN further notes, the CEFC relationship fell apart after Ye was placed under house arrest and Patrick Ho, one of the CEFC execs sent to the United States, was arrested by the FBI and convicted of bribery and money laundering.

Hunter, despite being paid a nearly $1 million legal retainer to help Ho’s defense, was never accused of wrongdoing in that case.

The 2015-17 text messages between Hunter Biden and his partners, which have received little public scrutiny, outline the earliest overtures from CEFC and give the clearest indication of what China hoped to gain from the Biden association: both “influence” and a trusted family name that would lend credence to China’s ambitions to enter the U.S. energy market and buy both American and Western energy assets without creating suspicion. -JTN

“Still closing the perimeters of ops with the Chinese, will know Thursday if we are driving U.S. investments,” Gilliar texted Bobulinski in May 2016 via an encrypted messaging app, suggessting things might be “still a little premature.”

“You got anyone big in oil?” asked Gilliar. “We will participate in a big purchase of upstream assets in Europe? Bargain. Sorry downstream, not awake.”

Meanwhile, other potential Biden-linked deals intersected with CEFC, including one that involved a Romanian businessman, Gabriel Popoviciu.

“I brought him to h,” Gilliar texted Bobulinski on May 20, 2017, referring to Hunter Biden.

“Chinese will do quick to finance relationship with b,” he continued, referring to the Biden family initial. “There are several angles to discuss face to face.“

And what was an underlying theme? That the Biden name was used to peddle influence to the Chinese and other foreigners.

“What is the deal in Romania and how does the B influence relative there,” reads one message.

“B influence will mean Zang does deal,” was the reply.

In a Thursday statement to Just the News, Bobulinski said: “I want to thank all the recent witnesses who have been willing to come out on record and tell the truth about Biden family corruption. I would encourage the American people to go back and review all the facts I detailed in 2020.”

“Joe Biden IS the Big Guy! CEFC, Chairman Ye and Director Zang were 100% focused, starting in 2015 while Joe was VP, on leveraging Joe Biden and the power his position and name wielded around the world to benefit the CCP and China. Focus on the facts.”

END

TUCKER CARLSON PART II/FRIDAY WITH DEVON ARCHER

Devon Archer Tells Tucker About “Icarus Moment” When Biden Influence Peddling Went Too Far

FRIDAY, AUG 04, 2023 – 12:05 PM

Tucker Carlson dropped the second segment of his interview with Devon Archer on Friday, where the former Hunter Biden business partner revealed new details about the Biden influence peddling operation.

To be clear, most of the hour-long interview is Tucker allowing Archer to provide well-rehearsed answers to softball questions – as though it’s a PR campaign designed to present Archer as an innocent entrepreneur who did what anyone would do in his shoes, while throwing Hunter under the bus for influence peddling and providing cover for President Joe Biden – who Archer last week told Congressional investigators wasn’t directly involved in Hunter’s dealings.

But there were some interesting tidbits:

“Did you ever, were you aware, do you have knowledge that Hunter spoke to his dad about Burisma?” asked Carlson.

“Do I have knowledge? Archer replied, carefully.

“Yes. Do you have knowledge that he spoke to his dad about Burisma? Did you ever see them talk about it? Hear them talk about it?” Carlson asked.

“No, I don’t have knowledge of that, though I assume it.“

Archer also called his partnership with Hunter “a very big strategic mistake.”

“Looking back at the body of work, it was a very big strategic mistake for me to be involved with him and so it was my fault because quite frankly I was pitching Burisma Rosemont Realty and that ended up, the genesis, that was me but the trajectory of my life would’ve been far different and arguable far better if I have never met him,” he said.

Archer also confirmed that former Ukrainian prosecutor Victor Shokin was a threat to Burisma. Shokin was notably fired after Joe Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees – and then bragged about it in public. According to a leaked FD-1023 form, Burisma boss Mykola Zlochevsky bribed Joe and Hunter Biden with $5 million each.

And in another portion of the interview, Archer describes the ‘Icarus moment’ where he realizes they’d pushed the relationship with Joe too far.

“We were in Doha … running around with some of the royal family at another conference… and they release some picture on the website that Hunter had joined the board, and that was kind of my… that was like the Tipping Point where Icarus had arrived a little too close… and the rest you know…

….that was really that was The Icarus moment when I saw that.

Burisma released it, didn’t tell us, and it was like the most Googled news story like in the world for 18 hours and yeah I was like this is going to be a different well because to a civilian you’re thinking okay huge super lucrative Eastern Europe right natural gas incredible sort of semi-employed kind of lawyer lobbyist from DC, like, what is he doing on their board?”

…

..it was very clear that the Burisma guys were hoping to leverage Hunter’s relationship with the vice president his father … at one point they told Hunter to quote call his dad.

I think, referencing the email that you you put earlier, there was constant pressure to to send signals to Leverage all of his ins, you know, his dad included. But the Biden brand all of the, you know, the the the DC Insider and relationships to help Burisma survive – I think that’s, you know, at the end of the day what we’re talking about.”

And watch the entire interview below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/devon-archer-tells-tucker-about-icarus-moment-when-biden-influence-peddling-went-too-far

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 4, 2023 – Issue 7047

Independent View of the News

The Bank of England on Thursday hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 5.25%. This is the 14th consecutive rate hike from BoE meetings. UK inflation remains stubbornly high. Ministry of Energy: Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September that can be extended or extended and deepened The Kingdom’s production for the month of September 2023 will be approximately 9 million barrels per day… this cut is in addition to the voluntary cut previously announced by the Kingdom in April 2023, which extends until the end of December 2024… https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/3e9cd3f912m S&P Global US Services PMI™Business activity growth eases as demand conditions soften in July The seasonally adjusted final S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 52.3 at the start of the third quarter, down from 54.4 in June… On the price front, input costs at service providers increased at a further marked pace during July. The rise was historically elevated and driven by higher wage bills and supplier prices… https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4e9e65108c4f4224ab943be6b3f82e97 Yesterday, bonds got hammered again. The US 10-year hit 4.19% near 11:00 ET. USUs hit a low of 120 3/32, -2 6/32 near 11:00 ET. USUs bounced to 120 24/32 at 11:16 ET. They then rolled over and traded in a tight range until the close. ESUs traded in modestly positive territory during Asian trading. After China closed at 2 ET, ESUs and stocks sank. After hitting a low of 4510.25 at 3:58 ET, ESUs rallied and later peaked at 4532.75 when the US bond market opened at 7 ET. ESUs and stocks then declined again, on the bond market carnage. ESUs hit a daily low of 4505.75 at 10:27 ET. Traders played for the 2^nd Hour Reversal. The NY Fang+ Index rallied sharply after the first hour of NYSE trading on AMD (Benchmark tout re: AI) and Tesla. Apple opened lower and stayed in negative territory the entire session. Apple’s high of 192.37 appeared at 11:16 ET. Amazon opened lower and then persistently rallied, hitting +0.8% near 11:45 ET. Amazon hit a session high of 127.48 at 12:50 ET. Apple and Amazon did NOT rally in the afternoon. ESUs hit a NYSE-session high of 4540.00 at 13:25 ET. They fell to 4520.25 at 15:14 ET. ESUs did a small A-B-C rally of 7 ESU handles into the close. Tesla’s China-made EV sales in July down 31% mth/mthU.S. automaker Tesla sold 64,285 China-made electric vehicles (EVs) in July, down 31% from a month earlier… Sales of China-made Model 3 and Model Y cars were up 128% from 28,217 a year earlier when a scheduled upgrade to Tesla’s Shanghai factory lowered production…https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-china-made-ev-sales-july-down-31-mthmth-2023-08-03/ @Jkylebass: China War Preparation – Important Update – China’s SOE refiners have RAMPED production of marine diesel with capacity utilization at SOE refiners moving from 75% to 95%(full production) while ‘teapot refiners’ are down from 65% to 55% (think bunker diesel). Exports are down -10% to the U.S. and exports to the world are down high single digits YOY, Shanghai Container Index is down 75%. Domestic crude demand is 10MM bls/day and with the SOE marine diesel refining ramp, current imports imply demand at over 12MM bls/day equivalent. (Only happened 3 times in history and all have been this year)The PLA Navy runs on marine diesel and China’s economic reality doesn’t comport with SOE marine diesel refineries all of a sudden running at nameplate capacity. CHINA IS EDGING CLOSER TO AN INVASION/BLOCKADE OF TAIWAN Perhaps Xi doesn’t believe ‘10% for The Big Guy’ will be useful much longer, and like Nixon during Vietnam prisoner negotiations, Joey Baby could be consumed and encumbered by impeachment. Newsom Sets up Presidential Fundraising Effort, Speculates 2024 RunThe California governor has set up three Newsom-affiliated PACs that have raised and spent millions of dollars in their first three months. Forming the political fundraising committees allows him to explore the possibility of a White House run without announcing it outright…https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2023/08/02/newsom-sets-up-presidential-fundraising-effort-n2626562 NBC: 2 U.S. Navy sailors (Jinchao Wei aka Patrick Wei & Wenheng Zhao aka Thomas Zhao) arrested on charges of sharing secrets with China, Justice Department says (Some percent for the little guys?)https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/2-us-navy-sailors-arrested-charges-sharing-secrets-china-justice-depar-rcna98021 @RNCResearch: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: “Fiscal responsibility is a priority for President Biden and me.” https://t.co/P5DshHcGVT FT: Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates riseA decade of “money printing”, fiscal stimulus and low interest rates that had pulled forward economic demand “is in retreat”, he added… https://www.ft.com/content/7d24db29-9046-42d3-a221-efb9e54db702 Elon Musk looking to build stock-trading hub inside X app: report https://t.co/fWdVvA4m5i Positive aspects of previous sessionThe usual equity rally after an early decline in the US appearedThe S&P 500 Index closed above 4500 – by only 1.89!Negative aspects of previous sessionBonds got hammered; Oil rallied sharply on another Saudi output restrictionStocks peaked when the afternoon appeared; there was no rally ahead of AMZN and AAPL’s resultsThe S&P 500 index broke 15 handles below its 4500 support at 10:30 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionHave a critical mass of investors realized that US debt needs are harming bonds? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4502.30Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4519.49; 4485.54 Biden White House asked Facebook to tweak algorithm to push mainstream over conservative news New memos obtained by Congress show White House wanted the public to see Wall Street Journal and New York Times stories instead of those from The Daily Wire and Fox News commentator Tomi Lahren… https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/white-house-asked-facebook-censor-daily-wire-tomi-lahren-over-covid-vax @greg_price11: Facebook employee admits in an email… that they censored TRUE information about the side effects of the covid vaccine and posts that questioned whether a vax mandate is “government overreach” because they “lead to a vaccine negative environment.” https://t.co/nvd9DkF8Ah @Jim_Jordan: THE FACEBOOK FILES PART 3.In 2021, the White House wanted to control what narratives and true content was posted on Facebook surrounding COVID19. President Biden went so far to say that Facebook was “killing people”… President Biden’s head of strategic communications and public engagement for the COVID19 response, Courtney Rowe, mocked Real America’s ability to determine what’s true and what isn’t… Facebook caved. The company ADMITTED to the White House that it reduced content of certain posts – even if the posts didn’t violate the company’s terms and contained TRUE information… To be continued… https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1687116327155298304 What Do Federal Tax Receipts and Total Receipts Suggest About Recession?Total receipts have fallen three consecutive quarters. Tax receipts have fallen two straight quarters. When tax receipts and total receipts both plunge, the economy is typically in recession. There were false signals in 1985 and 2003. There have also been recessions unconfirmed by plunging receipts… But the tax data and the GDI (Gross Dom. Income) data align… Nearly everyone cheered the strong report, except it was not entirely strong. GDI did not confirm GDP. GDI was negative for two consecutive quarters… https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-do-federal-tax-receipts-and-total-receipts-suggest-about-recession/ Fed Balance Sheet: -$ 36.58B, Notes & Bonds -$31.37B; Reserves at Fed Banks: +$17.289B to $3.189TUsage of the Fed’s emergency bank bailout facility hit a new record high of $105.7B. After the close, AMZN reported Q2 operating income of $7.68B, $4.72B was expected; EPS of .65 with the Rivian gain, .35 expected; Sales of $134.38B, $131.63 consensus. The stock soared 10.9%. Amazon forecasted Q3 Net Sales of $138.0B to $143.0B. 142.97 is the after-market high. Apple reported Q3 EPS of 1.26, 1.20 expected; revenue of $81.8B, $81.55 expected (3^rd consecutive Q/Q decline, last time was 2016); iPhone revenue of $39.67B, $39.8B exp. Apple initially soared to 196.12 on its ‘good’ EPS, seconds later it tumbled. After Apple’s CFO said iPad and Mac revenue would sink double digits in Q4, Apple cascaded to a low of 185.00. UAW Demands 40% Pay Hike in Labor Talks with US Automakers: WSJ (add another rate hike or 2) Today – Biden has needed good jobs reports for over a year due to his historic unpopularity. The Big Guy now needs good jobs report even more due to Hunter Biden revelations and the destruction of his risible narrative that he has been reducing US debt and the US budget deficit. Most traders will play for the Friday rally. If stocks are weak early or at midday, be alert for the late upward manipulation. ESUs are +9.50 (Amazon boost) and USUs are +2/32 at 20:30 ET. Expected econ data: July NFP 200k, Mfg. 5k, Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 4.2% y/y, Workweek 34.4, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6%; Goldman sees 250k NFP; the Whisper Number is 218k NFP S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4400; 100-day MA: 4240; 150-day MA: 4160; 200-day MA: 4093DJIA 50-day MA: 34,227; 100-day MA: 33,724; 150-day MA: 33,642; 200-day MA: 33,487(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4381.51 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4606.96 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4544.09 triggers a buy signal Devon Archer says Hunter used Joe Biden as ‘defensive leverage’ for foreign biz partners, transcript shows – Fox News Digital obtained a transcript of Archer’s testimony before the House Oversight panel… When asked if Archer and Hunter Biden would tell business partners they had “unique access” because of Vice President Biden, Archer said: “Yes, we would say we had unique understanding of D.C. and how it operates and how that, you know, could positively reflect on the terms of our business.”… “My only thought is that I think Burisma would have gone out of business if it didn’t have the brand attached to it,” Archer said. When pressed, Archer clarified that he believed Burisma was “able to survive” for as long as it did “just because of the brand.” “Because people would be intimidated to mess with them,” Archer explained. Archer testified that then-Vice President Joe Biden attended dinners with Hunter’s foreign business associates—including with an executive of Burisma Holdings. One dinner, Archer recalled, took place in the spring of 2014 at Cafe Milano in Washington D.C.’s Georgetown neighborhood. Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Archer, Eric Schwerin, the mayor of Moscow’s wife Yelena Baturina, and other business partners attended… Devon Archer testified that he was “left out” of “black box D.C. types of conversations.”…https://www.foxnews.com/politics/devon-archer-hunter-used-joe-biden-as-defensive-leverage-to-send-right-signals-to-foreign-biz-partners @mirandadevine: Another Dan Goldman own goal. He’s 3 for 3 now. This time in his Devon Archer “interrogation” he inadvertently gets Archer to say that part of Hunter’s value to Burisma was that “people would be intimidated to mess with them…legally” with the son of the US VP on the board. And so it turned out, as the prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, who was investigating Burisma corruption, was fired on the orders of Hunter’s dad… https://t.co/CxLBKPnneE @paulsperry_: CNN & other networks got burned by Dan Goldman (D-NY) who told them Hunter’s partner Devon Archer testified in closed-door hearing they were merely selling “the illusion of access” to VP Biden, when in fact transcript reveals “illusion” was Goldman’s word, not Archer’s… Dan Goldman is not only a vicious, nasty guy, but also a dirty dishonest player who is personally vested in covering up Biden-Burisma bribery b/c Goldman was Schiff’s handpicked lawyer prosecuting the first Trump impeachment over Trump requesting an investigation of Biden-Burisma. @RNCResearch: CBS calls out Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman’s lies on the Devon Archer testimony:“In fact, when you look at the transcript, what you see is that phrase ‘illusion of access’ is in Dan Goldman’s question — it’s actually NOT what Devon Archer testified to.” https://t.co/xBajOaKvnF Washington Post slaps Biden with ‘Four Pinocchios’ for falsely claiming Hunter never made money from China https://t.co/VXyb9ccjwh After two days of photos of The Big Guy sleeping or resting on the beach – and beaucoup snarky remarks about Joey Baby on social media, the WH released a video of Joe riding a bike. JESSE WATTERS: Donald Trump’s lawyer is licking his chops. They’re going to be relitigating the 2020 election in open court for months and this is exactly what Donald Trump’s been dying to do. https://www.foxnews.com/media/jesse-watters-this-where-gets-interesting?intcmp=tw_fnc&s=02 @bennyjohnson: Kash Patel dissects how DOJ Trump indictment may backfire on Biden and Dems: “Trump can issue subpoenas for… Nancy Pelosi…he can put Chris Wray, Merrick Garland— everybody is a witness for his case… The DOJ and the government gangsters there under Garland, and Wray, and Jack Smith have just reopened the litigation of January 6th.” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1687172333365035008 Turley: Indicting Trump for ‘knowingly false statements’ about election sets US on dangerous pathProsecutors will seek to criminalize false political claims. To bag Trump, they will have to bulldoze through the First Amendment and a line of Supreme Court cases.https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2023/08/02/trump-indictment-2020-election-jan-6-not-legally-sound/70509753007/ @julie_kelly2: My occasional reminder that head of DOJs “public integrity unit” responsible for investigating political corruption in 2014 was JACK SMITH. GOP needs to haul him in, too.Smith’s office of 30+ prosecutors missed a wire transfer from Russia to sons of VP and Sec of State??https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1687094532301635584?s=02 The Obama Factor – A Q&A with historian David Garrow (What the MSM ignores about BHO)Barack Obama… is a literary creation of Barack Obama, the writer, who authored the novel of his own life and then proceeded to live out this fictional character that he created for himself on the page… Black people in Chicago, everyone, Jerry Wright, Hermene Hartman, they’re not surprised that Barack turned into someone else. But they can’t explain why Michelle turned into someone else… Everybody, especially white folks, thought that having a Black family in the White House would be cure for the legacy of American racism. Now there’s no question in anybody’s mind that on that score, that scale, the presidency was a total failure… What do the Obamas and their circle have in common with each other? They are Ivy League people, who ran away from whatever they came from in order to become members of the credentialed elites, whose loyalty is to the system that gives them prestige… (Far more at link, including a comment about Obama’s love letter to an ex-girlfriend that buttresses a salacious allegation about BHO)https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/david-garrow-interview-obama @tjortenzi: NYT: Diane Feinstein’s daughter has power of attorney over her mother, a sitting senatorhttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/03/us/feinstein-husband-estate-family-fortune.html @ggreenwald: Pelosi and Schumer are demanding Feinstein not resign because they’re afraid her replacement will be Barbara Lee, and they want Adam Schiff in that seat instead. Lee is a 1,000 times better than Schiff. That’s why they want Schiff: a raging authoritarian and pathological liar. @EndWokeness: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson minimizes mass looting over the weekend. He scolds a reporter for using the term “mob” and says we should instead call them “large gatherings”(The woefully inept Chicago mayor apparently does NOT know that “mob action” is a legal term.)https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1687159177104277507 Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Had the Dumbest Defense for Kids Looting StoresWhen a reporter referred to the large group’s destructive behavior as “mob action,” Johnson admonishes the reporter for using such language to describe children… “There’s history in this city. I mean, to refer to children as like baby Al Capones is not appropriate.”… https://t.co/YUlYfFRMuH Federal agent robbed on Magnificent Mile (Chicago) as nighttime robbery sprees continuehttps://cwbchicago.com/2023/08/federal-agent-robbed-on-magnificent-mile-as-nighttime-robbery-sprees-chicago.html “What should our policy be towards non-Marxist ideas? As far as unmistakable counter-revolutionaries and saboteurs of the socialist cause are concerned, the matter is easy; we simply deprive them of their freedom of speech.” – Mao Zedong https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-24923993 @TheBabylonBee: Governor (Newsome) of State People Are Fleeing from Agrees to Debate Governor (DeSantis) of State They Are Fleeing To https://t.co/3gmsv3E3n0

END

GREG HUNTER..

Trump Indicted-AGAIN, More CV19 Vax Murder, USA Rating Cut

Trump Indicted-AGAIN, More CV19 Vax Murder, USA Rating Cut

By Greg Hunter On August 4, 2023 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups19 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com for (WNW 593 8.4.323)

President Donald Trump was indicted—again in Washington D.C. for what some simply say is an attack of free speech and political dissent. President Trump said, “It was a very sad day for America.” Trump has been charged with nearly 80 felony counts in three separate cases in what many say is political persecution and election interference. Trump lawyers say the silver lining is he will have subpoena power, and he can finally process the election fraud of 2020. Trump finally got standing to reveal why people were protesting what he calls a stolen election.

Another week of murders and extreme disabilities from the CV19 bioweapon/vax. This week, we feature Drexel University basketball player Terrence Butler, who was found dead in his own campus apartment. No cause of death listed, but the university required all students and employees to be fully CV19 vaccinated up until April 12 when the university abruptly ended the policy of injecting everyone with an experimental vax that turned out to be a bioweapon. This is yet another CV19 vax murder.

The United States of America got a credit rating downgrade from one of the big ratings services. Fitch cut the U.S. credit rating to AA+ from AAA. It does not seem like much, but big-time money managers and investment experts say this is “bad” and ask where is this going? Let me try to tell you. The federal budget is exploding with reckless spending and removal of the so-called debt ceiling, while at the same time, tax receipts recently plunged. The 30-year mortgage just went up to 7.32%, and financial experts like Jim Rickards say expect another interest rate increase from the Fed and big inflation on the horizon. This is Bidenomics!!

There is much more in the 57-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 8.4.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/trump-indicted-again-more-cv19-vax-murder-usa-rating-cut/)

(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)

After the Wrap-Up:

Pierre Kory, top lung doctor, expert in treating CV19 vax injuries and author of the popular new book “The War on Ivermectin.” Dr. Kory will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.

SEE YOU MONDAY