Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM1953.30

PM1957.34

Historical SGE Fix

New York price at the time: 1905.00

premium $52,00

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Bitcoin morning price:, $29,323 DOWN 19 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,313 DOWN 29 dollars

Platinum price closing $893.10 DOWN $13.40

Palladium price; $1236,70 DOWN $29.95

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,568.50 UP 1.25 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1497.88 DOWN 5.86 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1744.85 DOWN 4.93 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,910.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/14/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 08/16/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 16
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 7
709 C BARCLAYS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 30 3
905 C ADM 1
991 H CME 3

TOTAL: 34 34
MONTH TO DATE: 10,703

JPMorgan stopped 0 /34 contracts.

FOR AUGUST:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 34 NOTICES FOR 3400 OZ or 0.1052 TONNES

total notices so far: 10,703 contracts for 1,070,300 oz (33.291 tonnes)

FOR AUGUST:

SILVER NOTICES: 20 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 100,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 916 for 4,580,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.290 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2276 CONTRACTS TO 138,115 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.03 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A RATHER SMALLER SIZED 821 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 821 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.03). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF SOME SILVER CONTRACTS(IF ANY STILL EXIST) AS WE HAD OUR HUGE LOSS OF 777 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE SESSION.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 976 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING RISES AT 4.580 MILLION OZ + OUR NEW CRIMINAL 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ + 1.45 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR/// NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 6.030 MILLION OZ/// // // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALLER BUT STILL STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (821 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -523 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 17,277 contracts: OR 86.385 MILLION OZ (1571 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 86.385 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 86.385 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE GIGANTIC//WE WILL BE CLOSE TO MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 207 MILLION OZ/// )

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2276 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 976 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.580 MILLION OZ+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW TOTALS 6.030 MILLION OZ//// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1300 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALLER BUT STILL STRONG 821 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (821) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 197 CONTRACTS TO 431,384 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 464 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 197 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.10 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3100 OZ QUEUE JUMP + PRIOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = (.684 TONNES) //NEW STANDING 33.502 TONNES + .684 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 34.186/ + /A SMALL (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 979 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $2.10 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2136 OI CONTRACTS (6.6407 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1938 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 431,848

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2136 CONTRACTS WITH 197 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1938 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2136 CONTRACTS OR 6,6407 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 2306 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1938 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (197) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2136 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3100 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 33.502 TONNES + .684 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR) NEW TOTALS: 34.186 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 979 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 31,633 CONTRACTS OR 3,163,300 OZ OR 98.39 TONNES IN 11TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2875 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 98.39 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 98.39/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.76% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 98.39 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH BUT WILL NOT COME CLOSE TO MARCH 2022)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2276 CONTRACTS OI TO 138,115 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A STRONG 976 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 976 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 976 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2276 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 976 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1300 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 6.500 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.03 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 192.44 PTS OR 1.03% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 178.98 PTS OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.34 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2871 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3221 /Oil UP TO 81.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.38 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 197 CONTRACTS UP TO 431,384 DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.10 ON MONDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1938 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 1938 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1938 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2136 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1938 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 197COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.10//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL 979 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (34.186) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 34.186 TONNES (INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $2.10) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS (IF ANY STILL EXIST) AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2136 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF YESTERDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 6.6407 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3100 OZ QUEUEJUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES A BIT TO 33.502 TONNES + .6842 (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK) //NEW TOTAL 34.186 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.10.

WE HAD – REMOVED 464 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2136 CONTRACTS OR 213600 OZ OR 6.6407 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 155,571 awful

final gold volumes/yesterday 128,833 awful//speculators have left the gold arena

//AUGUST 15/ FOR THE AUGUST 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	43,699.630 OZ ASAHI REAL GOLD LEAVING .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	34 notice(s) 3400 OZ 0.1057TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	68 contracts 6800 oz 0.2115 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,703 notices 1,070,300 OZ 33.291 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of ASAHI: 43,699.630 oz (real gold leaving)

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 103 contracts having GAINED 13 contracts. We had 18 contracts filed

on Monday, so we gained 31 contracts or an additional 3100 oz will stand at the comex,

Sept gained 102 contracts to 2759.

Oct lost 289 contracts to 33,152 contracts.

We had 34 contracts filed for today representing 3400 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 34 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,703 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (103 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 34 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,077,100 OZ OR 33.502 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST. + .684 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 34.186 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,703) x 100 oz + (103) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (34) x 100 oz) which equals 1,077,100 oz standing OR 33.409 TONNES + .684 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 34.186 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 34.186 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,101,333.235 OZ 65.36 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,003,785.758 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,714,518.831 (364,37 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,289,267,377 O Z

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,613,185 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 299.01 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

AUGUST 15

//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	995,463.387 oz HSBC Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	601,200.800 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	20 CONTRACT(S) (100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	0 contracts (nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	916 Contracts (4,580,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposits customer account:

i)Into CNT 601,200.800 oz

total customer deposits: 601,200.800 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.276 million oz/279.192 million =49.87% of comex .//

Comex withdrawals 2

i) Out of HSBC: 506,595.250 oz

ii) Out of Manfra: 488,868.637 oz

total: 955,463.887 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.828 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 279.192 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 20 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 20 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD

0 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 20 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 5273 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 62,214

OCT GAINED 93 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 480.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 20 for 100,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 68,475 fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 73,501 good

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 916 x 5,000 oz = 4,580,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (20) and the number of notices served upon today 20 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 916 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (20) – number of notices served upon today (20 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.580 million oz.+ 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TODAY+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTALS: 6.030 MILLION oz.

There are 30.828 million oz of registered silver.

Thus if we take today’s standing at 6.030 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 36.930 million oz against only 30.828 million registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES

JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES

JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.

GLD INVENTORY: 895.87 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ

JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 452.290 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Silver Price Inexcusably Low Given The Market Dynamics

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 03:20 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Silver is significantly undervalued right now. One analyst called the current price in the $22 an ounce range “inexcusably low.”

But many analysts are bullish on silver in the medium term with projections of prices climbing to $50 to $100 an ounce over the next two to five years.

The question is when will we finally start to see this correction?

Silver has languished in 2023. While gold is up over 4% on the year, the price of silver has declined by over 5%.

We can see the growing spread between silver and gold in the silver-gold ratio, currently running at over 84-1. That means it takes over 84 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. To put the current ratio into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1.

Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.

When the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.

Current Dynamics

Silver has faced the same headwinds as gold with the Federal Reserve pushing interest rates higher to battle price inflation. Fed monetary policy has strengthened the dollar and sticky price inflation has kept investors on edge with expectations of more rate hikes. This has pressured the price of both gold and silver lower.

Silver has faced additional bearish sentiment due to a slowing economy. Sagging demand for consumer electronics has impacted industrial demand for both silver and gold. BMO Capital Markets commodities analyst Colin Hamilton noted that while the global economy has held up better than expected in the face of monetary tightening, “This is almost solely down to resiliency in the services economy while the manufacturing side is clearly feeling the strain.”

This disproportionately impacts silver because industrial demand makes up over 50% of total silver demand, as compared to only ~7% of gold.”

But looking at the longer term, the supply and demand dynamics are bullish for silver. In fact, there is a looming supply shortage.

Analysts believe that the growing demand for silver in the solar power industry will likely put a significant squeeze on supply in the coming years, and the current price of silver does not reflect the likely shortages.

We’re already seeing a tightening silver supply. While silver demand set records in every category in 2022, supply was flat with mine output falling by 0.6%. This resulted in a 237.7 million ounce market deficit in 2022.

It was the second consecutive annual deficit in a row. The Silver Institute called it “possibly the most significant deficit on record.” It also noted that “the combined shortfalls of the previous two years comfortably offset the cumulative surpluses of the last 11 years.”

This trend is not expected to reverse. Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. CEO Gregor Gregersen recently noted that silver mine production has fallen due to a lack of investment.

Production cannot be materially increased over the short term as it can take over 10 years to commence new mining operations. Therefore, increased silver prices will not lead to increased mine production for a long time.”

Meanwhile, we are likely about to see a huge increase in demand for the white metal thanks to the push for green energy.

Due to its outstanding electrical conductivity, silver is an important element in the production of solar panels. It is used to conduct electrical charges out of the solar cell and into the system. Each solar panel only uses a small amount of silver, but with the demand for solar panels growing exponentially every year, those small amounts of silver add up.

According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.

Recession worries would typically dampen industrial demand for silver, but the photovoltaic industry and the “green energy” sector more generally are essentially recession-proof due to support from governments around the world. With battling climate change a priority, it is highly unlikely investment in solar power and other green energy technologies will fall, even in the midst of an economic downturn.

And it’s important to keep in mind that while silver is an industrial metal, more fundamentally, it is money. Despite being more volatile in the short term, silver tends to track with gold over time. If you are inclined to think the Federal Reserve will lose the inflation fight, you should be bullish on both gold and silver.

At some point, investors will have to reckon with the shrinking supply of silver coupled with rising demand, along with the Fed’s inability to bring inflation back to its 2% target. When that happens, the price of silver will likely take off.

Given the supply and demand dynamics, the skewed silver-gold ratio and the likelihood that the Fed will not beat price inflation, $22 silver looks like a great buying opportunity.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

Rickards: Where’s The Darn Recession?

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 04:20 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Analyzing today’s economic conditions is a challenge.

If the world is in good economic health, you can describe the policy reasons behind that condition and identify specific stocks and sectors that will outperform the market.

You’d point to trends such as low inflation, positive real interest rates (a sign of strong growth resulting from a healthy competition for funds) and stable exchange rates (indicating that investment decisions are made on the basis of fundamentals rather than speculation).

If the world is in poor economic health, the analytic process is much the same but with very different inputs and forecasts.

You’d expect to see widespread inflation (or deflation), high unemployment, declining GDP growth (or negative growth), declining world trade and a host of poor public policy choices including high tax rates, tariffs, export subsidies, overregulation and counterproductive policies based on climate alarmism.

In either the good scenario or the bad scenario, the analyst knows how to approach policy recommendations or investment allocations.

Without being glib, if you’re in a good place, keep it going. If you’re heading in the wrong direction, turn around.

Well, what if we had both dynamics at once?

That’s a pretty good description of where the world is today. The U.S. is a good place to draw the contrast between good and bad news.

The U.S. has some of the lowest unemployment rate readings since the 1960s. Real wages have finally begun to grow slightly after years of negative readings.

Inflation is still too high (and the damage from past inflation will be with us permanently), but the dip has been undeniable. From 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.0% in June 2023, inflation (measured as CPI, year-over-year) has come far toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2.0%.

Of course, the stock market has been on a tear and some major indexes are inching toward new all-time highs or already there. No wonder that Joe Biden has decided to base his campaign on “Bidenomics.”

Still, the negative side of the picture is in plain sight.

U.S. industrial production has been declining for over a year. Some economists claim that manufacturing is a shrinking part of U.S. GDP and that services dominate economic growth.

That’s true as a first approximation, but it ignores the fact that much demand for services comes from those who work in factories, mines and assembly lines.

If the factory is closed, no one laid off will be buying tickets to the Taylor Swift concert.

Also, bank lending is contracting, and credit conditions are being tightened. This doesn’t mean a full-scale credit crunch is upon us or that the economy is falling off a cliff.

It does mean that a trend toward reduced liquidity is in place and will likely grow worse until it leads to business failures and bad debts.

What about the world beyond U.S. shores?

The EU is already in recession and Japan and the U.K. are close to zero growth and heading toward recession fast. Within the EU, individual recessions have hit in Germany and Ireland, with Italy and France showing growth barely above zero.

The idea of a real recession in China may seem incomprehensible, but we may be witnessing one.

The “reopening” narrative following the end of the ridiculous Zero COVID policy was always a myth (and I said so last year) but Wall Street bought into it until the data made its failure undeniable.

Today, China is not only underperforming the narrative, it’s slipping close to contraction.

The point is with the EU, China, Japan, the U.K. and others in recession or close to it, how can the U.S. expect to remain afloat?

Globalization may be on the decline, but it’s still the dominant path to global production. Aggregate world trade may be shrinking, but it’s still a large part of global GDP on a country-by-country basis.

How can the world shrink while the U.S. grows?

That won’t happen unless U.S. growth is so strong it pulls the world out of a collective rut. There’s no evidence for that. So there’s the dilemma.

Ample signs of growth are surrounded by large and growing signs of an economic stall. The U.S. is showing relatively strong growth, while the rest of the world coasts to a halt.

How do we reconcile the data? Where do we go from here?

Read on for the answers…

Time Will Catch up to the U.S.

Why does the U.S. economy look so strong in comparison with the rest of the world? The answer is timing.

The economy does not go from growth to recession like throwing a switch. It takes time.

The positive signs are real but they’re fading. The negative signs are real and they’re growing. Some data lead the economy; other data follow with a lag. It’s the analyst’s job to know which is which, and to focus on trends, not snapshots.

First off, low unemployment may not be a source of comfort because employment trends tend to lag the economy. The latest unemployment report (July’s) showed an unemployment rate of 3.5%, among the lowest since the 1960s.

That’s a healthy report on its face but there are two serious characteristics that need to be taken into account. The first involves what’s known as the labor force participation rate (LFPR).

This counts all of the working-age population of the U.S. who do not have jobs as a percentage of the total working-age population. That’s different from the unemployment rate because to be counted as “unemployed” you must be looking for a job.

There are tens of millions of working-age Americans who do not have jobs but are not looking for one. They are not counted as unemployed, but they do show up in the LFPR calculations.

Right now, the LFPR is 62.6%. That’s the same level the U.S. first reached in November 1977 when women were entering the workforce in large numbers. It’s significantly below the 67.2% level reached in January 2001, when baby boomers were in the prime of their careers. Essentially, 6.7 million workers have simply dropped out of seeking work relative to 2001.

If those 6.7 million workers were added to the number of unemployed today, the national unemployment rate would be 7.6%, a rate more closely associated with a recession. In effect, the low participation rate is hiding a large unemployed cohort not being counted by the government in the official employment report.

The second and even more critical defect in using employment statistics in economic forecasting is that employment reports are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. When the economy begins to slow down, businesses will do everything except lay off workers to keep the doors open.

They’ll cut inventories, lower prices, seek rent reductions, cut administrative costs and a lot else before they fire valuable workers. All of those strategies are clear signs of a failing economy, but they don’t show up in the employment reports.

By the time employers get around to firing workers, it’s too late for the economy. So you can’t rely on low unemployment rates to conclude all is well. The opposite could easily be true.

Still, there are powerful indicators suggesting the U.S. economy is in or near a severe recession in addition to better-known measures such as the unemployment rate. The first of these is an inverted yield curve.

I’m not going to get too technical here, but it’s important to understand the basics and their implications. A yield curve shows interest rates on securities of different maturities from one issuer or it can show interest rates on a single instrument at different points in the future.

In either case, the curve is normally upward sloping (longer maturities or later settlement dates have higher interest rates). That makes sense. If you’re lending money for longer or betting on rates further into the future, you want a higher interest rate to compensate you for the added risk from such events as inflation, credit downgrades, bankruptcy and more.

Yield curves in U.S. Treasury securities are steeply inverted today. So are yield curves in SOFR (formerly Eurodollar) futures contracts. Again, don’t worry about the technical details. Just understand that these are important warning signals. The last time both yield curves were this steeply inverted was prior to the global financial crisis of 2008.

If you’re not factoring this signal into your forecast, you’re missing a five-alarm fire. The system is flashing red.

There are many other such warning signs such as negative swap spreads. Without getting into the technical details, it’s enough to understand that negative swap spreads mean that bank balance sheets are contracting. Balance sheet capacity is strained. That’s another early warning of a credit crunch that presages a recession.

There are other warning signs and, again, I’m not going to get into the technical details here. It’s enough to say that all of the technical signs are unusual and all point in the direction of a recession. They all have good track records of predicting recessions going back to the 1970s and earlier depending on the time series.

So in the U.S., the fundamentals (industrial output, global trade, inventory accumulation, credit, commercial real estate) are negative. The technicals (yield curves, swap spreads, bank equity) are negative. The only positives are unemployment (a lagging indicator) and the stock market (a cap-weighted bubble). Unfortunately for investors, stocks and jobs are the only things the financial TV talking heads talk about. Don’t fall for it.

Investors who look abroad for rescue by former highfliers such as China, Japan and Germany will also be disappointed. China is slowing dramatically; the reopening narrative was always a myth.

Meanwhile, Japan is hanging by a thread partly because of its close economic alignment with China. Germany is already in recession and that will get worse as the Ukraine war drags on and one whom the Russians call General Winter appears by November.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent that we’re looking at a global recession, if not a global financial crisis. These are highly unusual. It’s often the case that one or more major economies are in recession while others display growth and help pull the weak performers out of the ditch.

But today, we’re facing a case where, one after the other, all of the major economies are falling into the ditch. Now, that doesn’t mean investors should just throw their hands up in the air and run for the hills.

But they should lighten up on equities, increase allocations to cash (paying good 5% yields these days), allocate about 10% of investable assets to gold and silver and take a close look at sectors such as energy, agriculture, mining and natural resources that will stand the test of time.

You don’t have to follow everyone else off a cliff.

end

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

China’s authorities are using import curbs on gold. That has caused the premium to London of over 40 dollars. The higher prices are stifling demand from citizens

(YahooNews)

China’s gold prices believed to exceed rest of world’s because of import curbs

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-08-15 09:15Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News
Tuesday, August 15, 2023

China’s gold price is rising against levels in London, a trend that local traders say is due to government curbs on imports of the precious metal.

The Shanghai spot price was more than $40 an ounce higher than that in London on Aug. 14, according to Bloomberg calculations based on exchange data. That’s the biggest premium in more than five months, with the gap steadily widening from late June even as consumer demand in China remained sluggish.

Authorities moving to limit gold imports appear to be a major driver behind the growing gap, according to traders and importers.

The government has reduced or stopped issuing import quotas to some local banks, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as the information is private.

That has resulted in a drop in flows over the last few months, two of the people said, and there’s no immediate prospect of the affected quotas being issued again. The reason for the curbs isn’t clear. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-gold-prices-rising-higher-220000714.html

end

Brien Lundin: You may not know them but you need to listen to them

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-08-14 16:33Section: Daily Dispatches

GATA’s Bill Murphy and Chris Powell will be among the speakers at the New Orleans Investment Conference.

* * *

By Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference
Monday, August 14, 2023

I’m excited.

Not by the metals and mining markets, mind you. They’re still stuck in the mud.

In fact, gold is testing key support around the $1,900 level once again … and in the process testing my theory that the metals bottomed in early July

If I’m proven wrong, however, it’s very likely just a temporary setback for gold, silver and mining stocks. That’s because this interest-rate hiking cycle is essentially ended. The 10-year Treasury yield has leaped above 4%, challenging the highest levels in 15 years. The last time yields were this high, the federal debt was just one-third as large as it is today.

This means that not only is federal debt out of control (it’ll probably grow by $3 trillion this fiscal year alone) … but the interest expense on the debt will continue to soar.

It’s all going to come to a head in the weeks just in front of us. That’s because this rate-hike cycle has peaked, and the big money is already positioning for the downside of the cycle.

That’s one reason why I’m excited. The other is the amazing speakers we’ve locked in for this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference, to be held from Wednesday through Saturday, November 1-4.

… You Need To Hear These Superstars …

I was recently perusing our line-up for New Orleans ’23 and realized that the list could be divided into two groups: Widely recognized names and others that many of our attendees might not be aware of.

I mean that every serious investor knows about James Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Peter Boockvar, George Gammon, Rick Rule, and the dozens of other big names and newsletter editors who have graced our stage in the past and are coming again this year.

But there are some more that are new to our event or are emerging superstars on the investment scene that you may not know very well.

So let me fix that by introducing some of these experts to you now.

Lyn Alden — OK, it might be a bit insulting to insinuate that you don’t know who Lyn is. After all, she’s widely regarded as perhaps today’s most cogent and insightful macro-economic analyst.

And Lyn has participated in past New Orleans Conferences on a virtual basis. But she rarely speaks in person at investment events, which makes it even more special that she’s chosen to travel to New Orleans this year to clearly outline the remarkable forces at work in the markets today, put them into historical perspective, and provide her trademark deadly accurate forecasts.

Let me put it this way: I’ve read and heard from thousands of top macro experts over the nearly 40 years I’ve been in this business. So believe me when I tell you that Lyn Alden is the best I’ve seen — and you absolutely must hear what she has to tell you this year.

Matt Taibbi — Again, lots of people know who Matt Taibbi is, from his investigative reporting over many years in Rolling Stone to his more recent exposés of the “Twitter Files,” showing how government and other entities conspired to censor the truth about Covid.

But I’ve found that many investors don’t realize just how important Matt is, and his ongoing discoveries on how government and media continue to hide the truth and work against your interests.

In my opinion, Matt is the single most important journalist of this generation. Even more important, he will soon provide New Orleans attendees with an exclusive briefing on the latest assaults on your liberties.

Konstantin Kisin — One of my great joys in recent months has been exposing Konstantin Kisin to many of my friends and subscribers I’ve talked with at conferences.

He is at once one of the most entertaining and thought-provoking speakers I’ve ever seen. If I had to compare him to anyone, it would be my late, great friend Charles Krauthammer, who was beloved by our New Orleans Conference attendees.

To get a brief taste of Konstantin’s viewpoints and talent, watch this video recording of his speech earlier this year at an annual Oxford Union debate. You’ll see why he has hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers, and why his speech at New Orleans ’23 (and his appearance on our Geopolitical Panel with Matt Taibbi, George Gammon, and Dominic Frisby) are not to be missed.

James Lavish — You haven’t heard of James being added to our roster because we were just able to lock him in a few days ago. I’m very excited about this because he is not only among the most astute macro analysts I’ve run across but, perhaps more importantly, has the ability to clearly and cogently explain even the most complex topics.

In New Orleans, James will describe the developing U.S. debt spiral step by step and reveal how the end game will play out. This presentation alone will be worth the price of attending, and added on top of it will be James’ contributions to our “Future of Money” panel, along with James Rickards and Danielle DiMartino Booth.

James Stack — Another speaker that should be familiar to many, Jim is actually an old friend of mine and the conference, having made regular appearances for many years in the 1980s and 1990s. Because of the demands of his renowned investment letter and money management firm, however, he hadn’t appeared in person for quite some time, before his participation last year.

I wanted to highlight his appearance this year because Jim has been, in my view, simply the most accurate market analyst and timer, not just for today but for decades.

He is known as the man who has predicted every bursting bubble of recent times, which obviously makes it crucial for you to hear him this year. Get ready, because Jim’s bringing his crystal ball, backed by reams of proprietary technical analysis, to show us what lies ahead.

… Plus Dozens More Leading Experts …

The speakers I’ve highlighted above just scratch the surface of our New Orleans ’23 roster.

I think this is, from top to bottom, the finest array of experts ever gathered for not only a New Orleans Conference, but any investment event.

That’s not hyperbole. I’ve seen it all over the years, and this faculty is simply unsurpassed. If you’re a serious investor, you need to be at New Orleans ’23.

Don’t just take my word for it. I urge you to discover why you can’t afford to miss this event. Just visit here:

https://tinyurl.com/57xbtjjw

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2871

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3221

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 192.44 PTS OR 1.03%

2. Nikkei closed UP 178.98 OR 0.56%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.04 EURO RISES TO 1.0914 UP 6 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.627 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145.66/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.7215***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.396*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.750…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.985

3j Gold at $1904.00 silver at: 22.46 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 83 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 98.48//

3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145.66// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.627% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8781 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9585 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2521 UP 7 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.337 UP 6 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.003 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.06…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.6930

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures, World Markets Tumble After China Surprise Rate Cut Sparks Growth Fears

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 08:18 AM

US futures and global markets are weaker and bond yields resume their ascent, amid growing concerns that China’s economic slowdown and debt problems – which prompted Beijing to unexpectedly cut rates the most since 2020 amid mounting economic gloom …

… will spread to the global economy. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were at session lows, down 0.7% while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.6%, with Tech outperforming on the move lower.

Global bonds fell. Treasury yields extended their climb, with the 10-year rate trading at 4.23%, the highest since October. UK gilts slid and the pound climbed after wage growth accelerated to the strongest pace on record. Commodities are weaker: oil fell and gold held near its lowest close since March as traders pared expectations for Fed rate cuts next year and beyond; the USD erased earlier losses after the latest NY Fed consumer survey showed 1Y inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, down from 3.8%, and the lowest since Apr 2021. On today’s calendar, Retail Sales is today’s key macro data where BofA card data suggests the July print will come well ahead of consensus estimates.

Away from the US, major markets are all lower ex-Italy; UK the biggest laggard as macro data shows increased wage growth despite increased unemployment. Regional bond yields are higher on the data as the market prices in more rate hikes. Japan GDP surprised to the upside as China macro data disappoints leading to surprise rate cut. In factors, Momentum is leading, Vol is lagging; Growth over Value; Defensives over Cyclicals. UKX -1.2%, SX5E -0.8%, SXXP -0.8%, DAX -0.8%. In the tail end of earnings season, consumer-sector earnings remain in focus.

In premarket trading, NVDA is up 1.6% following an FT reports that China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are ramping purchases from NVDA to fuel growth in AI, while UBS raised its price target on the semiconductor company’s stock, and follows Morgan Stanley boosting its PT ahead of the technology giant’s earnings report next week. The big banks are all lower premarket as CNBC reports that Fitch may be forced to downgrade multiple banks including JPM. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

The Arena Group jumps 12% as the publisher of media brands including Sports Illustrated signed a letter of intent with 5-hour Energy drink founder Manoj Bhargava and his firm Simplify Inventions.
Navitas Semiconductor gains about 7% after projecting revenue for the third quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
CareDx Inc. gains 4.4% as Raymond James analyst Andrew Cooper upgraded the firm to outperform from market perform, citing a risk-reward “that skews positive.”
F45 Training tumbles 65% in premarket trading, after the fitness company backed by actor Mark Wahlberg said it plans to voluntarily delist from the New York Stock Exchange and deregister its common stock.
Freedom Holding fell 7.1% after Hindenburg disclosed a short position on the financial services holding company’s stock.
Getty Images shares drop 16% after the photo-services company cut its full-year revenue outlook. Analysts highlighted the impact of the writers’ and actors’ strike in Hollywood, with Citigroup noting that Getty’s guidance assumes these will last through the second half of the year.
Navitas Semiconductor shares are up 6.7% after the semiconductor device company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook.
Redfin Corp. shares are up 0.6% after Oppenheimer upgraded the online real estate company to market perform from underperform.

Attention is increasingly turning to China whose emergence from pandemic lockdowns has been disappointing, fanning concern the world’s economic engine is sputtering. The nation is struggling to contain a potential default at developer Country Garden Holdings Co. after it missed payments on its debt. In a striking development, Beijing announced that it would stop reporting Chinese youth unemployment data after it hit a record high above 21% last month.

“China property worries and today China unexpectedly cutting two key rates are sending a clear signal that growth may not reach its GDP guidance of 5% by year-end,” said Stephane Ekolo, a strategist at TFS Derivatives. “Hence global growth is likely to suffer and the probability of a real slowdown or recession is growing.”

China’s yuan slipped as much as 0.5% after policymakers lowered the rate on one-year loans — known as the medium-term lending facility — by 15 basis points to 2.5%. Data for July underscored the economic slide, showing growth in consumer spending, industrial output and investment dropping across the board and unemployment picking up.

Instead of reassuring investors, China’s surprise rate cut only deepened anxiety about policy steps to revive growth, driving Europe’s Stoxx 600 index down as much as 1.2% to the lowest in a month. China’s rate cut came amid a raft of news depressing risk appetite, from a devaluation in Argentina to an attempt by Russia on Tuesday to stem the ruble’s slide with an emergency rate hike.

As reported earlier, the ruble erased earlier gains and resumed its drop after Russia unexpectedly raised its key rate to 12% from 8.5% and said another increase is possible.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s already-distressed debt slumped after a populist who vowed to burn down the central bank won surprisingly strong support in a primary vote. Its under-siege government submitted to a 18% currency devaluation.

European stocks extended a drop to a session low as investors worried about higher-for-longer interest rates as well as the impact from a gloomy economic outlook in China. The Stoxx 600 dropped 1.1% as US bond yields jump, driven by a slide in real estate and mining stocks lead while energy outperformed. Here are the biggest European movers:

Tecan rallies as much as 11%, the most in a year, after the Swiss laboratory equipment maker reported first-half earnings and reiterated its guidance, which analysts said was a key positive
Marks & Spencer jumps as much as 9.7%, to the highest since January 2022, after the UK retailer provided an unscheduled sales update and increased its profit outlook for the year
Pandora gains as much as 3.8% after the Danish jewelry chain reported 2Q Ebit that beat estimates and boosted its full-year organic revenue outlook. Analysts said the results were better than expected
Embracer falls as much as 11% after Axios reported that Saudi-funded Savvy Games was the partner behind a $2 billion deal which fell through in May, sending shares plunging as much as 45%
Straumann shares drop as much as 6.1%, the most since December, after the Swiss dental equipment company’s decision to keep guidance unchanged overshadowed better-than-expected 1H earnings
888 shares drop as much as 8.7%, before paring the decline, after the online betting firm toned down expectations for full-year sales amid suspension of VIP accounts in the Middle East
Alfen plunges as much as 11% after cutting its revenue forecast for the full year citing destocking challenges in its EV charging sales channels. The guidance missed the average analyst estimate
Hexatronic declines as much as 16% after the Swedish fiber-optic cable manufacturer reported a weak growth outlook in several key markets in its latest earnings report, Redeye notes
TKH falls as much as 11% after the telecommunications firm warned that challenging market conditions might dampen growth for its Smart Visions unit in the second half of the year

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed amid gains in Japan after its economy expanded more than expected, while Chinese stocks extended recent declines on disappointing economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific dropped 0.2%. Japan’s Toyota and Sony were among the biggest boosts while Chinese tech stocks including Alibaba dragged on the benchmark. Key indexes in Australia and Taiwan also advanced, while markets in South Korea and India were closed for holidays. Japan’s gross domestic product increased 6% in the second quarter, more than double economists’ forecasts, showing resilience in the face of global recession fears. That stands in marked contrast to China, where the latest retail sales and factory output data missed estimates. An unexpected rate cut by the People’s Bank of China provided little market cheer Tuesday. Pressure is building across Chinese financial markets amid spiraling crises in the non-bank lending industry as well as ongoing real estate woes. The CSI 300 Index is on track to erase all of its gains since a key political meeting in July provided some hope for efforts to boost the economy.

“Investors are now worried about credit events, not just from the ailing property sector, but also on the shadow banking system which the authorities are unlikely to bail out,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. Cutting rates can help margins, but it may not be “very effective in boosting loan demand when confidence is still weak in the corporate and household sectors.”

Nikkei 225 benefitted from a strong GDP report which showed Japan’s economy expanded by the fastest annualised pace since Q4 2020 but was led by exports as private consumption contracted for the first time in 3 quarters.
ASX 200 was firmer with most sectors in the green including the top-weighted financials after earnings from big 4 bank NAB which also announced a share buyback, while the RBA minutes provided little in the way of new information and kept the door open for further rate hikes although the latest Wage Price Index printed softer-than-expected.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied after three days of gains. The pound rallied as much as 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2721 before paring some of those gains, while gilts fell, led by the front end of the curve after data showed April to June wages excluding bonuses rose 7.8% from the prior year, beating analyst estimates of 7.4%. The market has now fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in September, as well as an additional 50 basis points of tightening through March. Focus turns to the UK’s July CPI data due Wednesday. The Swiss franc tops the intraday G-10 rankings, rising 0.3% versus the greenback.

“The US dollar and US yields are still the pre-eminent driver of global financial conditions, and volatility could pick up as US rates inch higher,” Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, wrote in a note

In rates, treasuries remain under pressure after declining during Asia session and European morning, led by core euro-zone bonds. Yields across the curve reached highest levels in at least several weeks, with 10- to 30-year yields attaining new YTD highs: the 10-year yield 3 basis points higher at 4.23%. Treasury yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp across intermediate and long-end sectors, steepening 2s10s by ~3bp, 5s30s by less than 1bp; 10-year yields around 4.23%, with bunds and gilts cheaper by additional 4bp and 2bp in the sector. French 10-year yields reached highest level since 2011 as money markets price in the European Central Bank raising interest rates as high as 4%. Gilts have led a sell off in the bond markets after record wage growth in the UK prompted traders to raise bets on the BOE terminal rate to around 6%. UK two-year yields are up 9bps while the German equivalent add 6bps. During Asia session, Treasury futures traded heavy also, following losses in Aussie bonds even as RBA minutes signaled a greater bar to further rate hikes and China data disappointed. The US session has packed economic data slate including retail sales.

In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.2% to around $82.40. Spot gold drops 0.2%

Looking at the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales for July, the Empire State manufacturing survey for August, and the NAHB’s housing market index for August. Elsewhere, we’ll get UK employment for June, the German ZEW survey for August, and Canada’s CPI for July. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, and earnings releases include Home Depot.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,482.75
MXAP down 0.2% to 161.15
MXAPJ down 0.5% to 507.38
Nikkei up 0.6% to 32,238.89
Topix up 0.4% to 2,290.31
Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 18,581.11
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,176.18
Sensex up 0.1% to 65,401.92
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,304.96
Kospi down 0.8% to 2,570.87
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 456.05
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.69%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0920
Brent Futures little changed at $86.20/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,904.43
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

UK wage growth accelerated at the strongest pace on record, underscoring the Bank of England’s concerns that it hasn’t yet broken the wage-price spiral feeding inflation across the economy.
China’s central bank unexpectedly reduced a key interest rate by the most since 2020 to bolster an economy that’s facing fresh risks from a worsening property slump and weak consumer spending.
China suspended publishing data on its soaring youth unemployment rate to iron out complexities in the numbers, fanning investor fears about data transparency in the world’s second-largest economy.
Japan’s economy expanded at a much faster clip than forecast, as a surge in exports more than offset weaker-than-expected results for both business investment and private consumption.
Russia’s central bank raised interest rates to the highest in over a year, increasing the pace of monetary tightening at an emergency meeting called after one of the steepest depreciations in emerging markets cast a pall over the economy.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in an event-packed session as participants digested key releases including disappointing Chinese activity data and the PBoC’s surprise cuts to its 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates. ASX 200 was firmer with most sectors in the green including the top-weighted financials after earnings from big 4 bank NAB which also announced a share buyback, while the RBA minutes provided little in the way of new information and kept the door open for further rate hikes although the latest Wage Price Index printed softer-than-expected. Nikkei 225 benefitted from a strong GDP report which showed Japan’s economy expanded by the fastest annualised pace since Q4 2020 but was led by exports as private consumption contracted for the first time in 3 quarters. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued as the miss on Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales

Top Asian News

PBoC conducted CNY 401bln in MLF and unexpectedly cut the 1-year MLF rate by 15bps to 2.50% from 2.65%, while it injected CNY 204bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate cut to 1.80% from 1.90%.
PBoC cut the standing lending facilities rates; 10bps reduction for overnight (now 2.65%), 7-day (now 2.8%) and 1–month maturities (now 3.15%).
PBoC adviser called for the urgent need to boost residential consumption.
China NBS said the economy continued to recover in July and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be cemented, while it reiterated to boost domestic demand and noted that domestic demand is not sufficient. China’s stats bureau also stated that China’s economic recovery faces challenges but expects exports to be basically steady in H2 and said risks for property developers could be gradually resolved due to policy optimisation. Furthermore, the NBS said PPI declines are expected to moderate further and the decline in CPI could be temporary, while it anticipates China’s economy to improve as policies gain traction.
China reportedly mulls cutting its stamp duty to revive slumping stock market, according to Bloomberg sources; details on timing and size are yet to be determined, and there is no guarantee the proposal will be approved.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said rapid FX moves are undesirable and they are to respond appropriately to excessive moves; not targeting absolute FX levels when intervening. Suzuki added FX should move stably reflecting fundamentals, and offered no comment on FX levels, but said they are watching markets with a strong sense of urgency.
Japan’s top FX diplomat Kanda says will take appropriate steps against excessive moves, according to Jiji; adds that excess volatility is undesirable and monitoring with a high sense of urgency, according to Reuters.
RBA Minutes from the August meeting stated that the Board considered raising rates by 25bps or holding steady and agreed that the case for holding steady was the stronger one, while the Board saw a credible path back to the inflation target with Cash Rates at the current 4.10% level but agreed it was possible some further tightening may be needed which would depend on data and evolving assessment of risks. Furthermore, it stated that inflation is heading in the right direction although service inflation is too high and the Board saw plausible scenarios where inflation took longer than acceptable to return to the target.

European bourses have been unable to hold onto modest opening gains. There wasn’t a clear reason behind the pullback in global equities and summer trading conditions can often cause an unexplained drift within the market. Sectors in Europe are now lower across the board with the exception of Retail just about managing to hold in positive territory with Marks & Spencer. On the downside, Real Estate names are the standout laggard with the sector struggling in the face of firmer yields, whilst Basic Material names are suffering in the wake of Chinese-induced softness in underlying metals prices. Stateside, equity futures are trading on the back foot, with ES and NQ giving back some of yesterday’s gains after overnight data out of China disappointed

Top European News

ZEW said respondents by and large do not expect further rate hikes in the EZ and US. ZEW said the economic outlook for the US has seen a significant increase; this contributes to improved expectations for Germany, according to Reuters.

DXY trades on a more mixed footing amidst a myriad of factors ranging from data to Central Bank policy action and further intervention. The Dollar index holds a tight line around 103.000, with downside pressure emanating from the Sterling, the Euro and Franc, whilst support comes via the Loonie, Yen and Swedish Crown.
GBP derived traction from the hotter-than-expected UK wages.
The Chinese Yuan relied on state bank buying to stem losses overnight following disappointing activity data and rate cuts by the PBoC.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1768 vs exp. 7.2648 (prev. 7.1686)
Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.
CBR hiked by 350bps from 8.5% to 12% at its emergency rate decision.

Fixed Income

Debt futures have recouped some losses after plunging further into negative territory, and arguably in relief that supply has not prompted any additional pressure from a demand perspective
Bunds are holding above worst levels within a 130.57-131.26 range, Gilts midway between 92.51-99 confines and the T-note just over their 109-22 overnight base.
UK sells GBP 2.5bln 1.125% 2039 Gilt: b/c 2.51x (prev. 2.58x), average yield 4.786% (prev. 3.780%) & tail 0.8bps (prev. 0.2bps).
Germany sells EUR 4.234bln vs. Exp. EUR 5.5bln 3.10% 2025 Schatz: b/c 1.3x (prev. 1.5x), average yield 3.12% (prev. 3.7%) & retention 21.38% (prev. 17.28%)

Commodities

WTI and Brent futures are experiencing another morning of choppiness in summer markets, the losses seen since the European cash open seemingly a function of the broader risk aversion and downbeat Chinese data.
Spot gold is subdued this morning as the Dollar clawed back some earlier losses in early European trade, with the yellow metal dipping under its 200 DMA around USD 1,905/oz.
Base metals have also seen a choppy session thus far with the initial mild support from the aforementioned Bloomberg sources dissipating amid this morning’s risk aversion. 3M LME copper briefly dipped under USD 8,200/t.

Geopolitics

Russian Ambassador to the US said the US denied some Russian officials visas to travel to the APEC conference in Seattle, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

08:30: July Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
- Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%
- Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
- Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
08:30: July Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
- July Import Price Index YoY, est. -4.6%, prior -6.1%
- July Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.9%
- July Export Price Index YoY, prior -12.0%
08:30: Aug. Empire Manufacturing, est. -1.0, prior 1.1
10:00: June Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
10:00: Aug. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 56, prior 56
16:00: June Total Net TIC Flows, prior -$167.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The last 24 hours have been pretty mixed for markets, as growing concerns about Chinese property and the prospect of higher US rates have dampened risk appetite among investors. We mentioned yesterday that the developer Country Garden were suspending trading of 11 onshore bonds, and this morning we’ve had another round of economic data that’s fallen short of expectations once again. For instance, Chinese industrial production in July only grew by +3.7% year-on-year (vs. +4.3% expected), whilst retail sales fell to a +2.5% (vs. +4.0% expected). In the meantime, YTD property investment fell to -8.5% year-on-year (vs. -81% expected), and the urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% (vs. 5.2% expected).

That backdrop has seen the People’s Bank of China cut the rate on the medium-term lending facility overnight, with a 15bp cut down to 2.5%. And in turn, the offshore Yuan has weakened against the US Dollar for a 4th consecutive session, meaning it’s currently trading at its weakest level since November, at 7.30 per US Dollar. Yields on the country’s 10yr government debt are also down -4.9bps to 2.57%, marking their lowest level since 2020.

With economic data weakening further, Chinese equities have lost further ground this morning, and the CSI 300 (-0.49%) is down for a 3rd consecutive session. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is also down -0.80%, whilst the Hang Seng Property Index is down -1.53% to a 9-month low as well. But it hasn’t been entirely bad news overnight, since Japanese GDP grew twice as fast as expected in Q2, with annualised growth coming in at +6.0% (vs. +2.9% expected), and the Nikkei is up +0.84%. That said, the GDP beat was driven by a much stronger-than-expected net exports figure, with business investment and private consumption actually coming in beneath consensus.

Those concerns around Chinese property haven’t been helped by rising US interest rates, and yesterday saw the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.9bps) reach its highest level so far in 2023, closing at 4.19%. Alongside that, there was an even bigger milestone for the 10yr real yield (+5.7bps), which closed at a post-2009 high of 1.84% yesterday. So that’s a fresh sign that borrowing costs are still getting more restrictive in real terms. At the front-end, those increases were even more pronounced, and the 2yr yield (+7.4bps) closed at a one-month high of 4.97% as well. Those trends have continued overnight as well, with the 10yr yield up another +0.8bps to 4.20%.

The main factor driving yields higher was the prospect that the Fed would keep policy in restrictive territory for longer than previously anticipated. In fact, fed funds futures for the December 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle yesterday, closing at 4.29%, so we’re continuing to see markets reappraise the policy path in a more hawkish direction. Now admittedly, that’s still beneath the 4.6% rate signalled in the Fed’s dot plot from June. But market pricing was at just 3.73% on July 13, so now we’ve seen more than 50bps worth of rate hikes being priced back in for next year in the space of just over a month.

In the US and Europe, the major equity indices were impressively resilient given the backdrop yesterday, and the S&P 500 (+0.57%) started the week on the front foot, with futures up another +0.18% this morning. However, the rally yesterday was on the narrower side, and less than 50% of the S&P 500’s constituents rose on the day. Megacap tech stocks were among the outperformers, with the NASDAQ (+1.05%) and FANG+ (+1.73%) indices posting their strongest performance of August so far. At the same time, there were several points of weakness, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.24%) hit a one-month low, as did the MSCI EM index (-0.48%).

Over in Europe, the most interesting macro story of the day came out of Russia, with the dollar exchange rate moving above 100 rubles on Monday morning, the highest since March 2022 (in the early weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). The ruble did recover from 102 to around 98 during the day after the Bank of Russia said an emergency rates decision will be made this morning (which should deliver a chunky hike). The ruble is among the weakest currencies this year (-26% ytd versus the dollar) despite the rise in oil prices in recent months. In a report last month (link here), our EM economists described how a slowing of exports, a strong recovery in imports and an inability to attract capital left the exchange rate as a release valve for rising imbalances in the Russian economy. They also note that Moscow’s move to increase trade in non-Western currencies exacerbated the ruble’s vulnerability – so an event study arguing against any imminent demise of the dollar’s dominance in global trade.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets were fairly calm yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.15%. Bonds saw more of a struggle however, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.3bps), OATs (+2.0bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all moving higher. Gilts were the biggest underperformer, with the 10yr yield up +3.9bps, whilst the 30yr yield (+2.4bps) hit its highest level since the mini-budget at 4.75%. It was the same story for the 30yr real yield (+1.2bps), which also hit its highest since the mini-budget at 1.27%. The focus should remain on the UK this morning, as we’ve got labour market data shortly after we go to press, as well as the July CPI release tomorrow morning.

There wasn’t much data of note yesterday, although we did get the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. That showed that 1yr inflation expectations hit their lowest since April 2021, at just 3.5%. And there was also a modest decline in 3yr and 5yr expectations, which both came down a tenth to 2.9%.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales for July, the Empire State manufacturing survey for August, and the NAHB’s housing market index for August. Elsewhere, we’ll get UK employment for June, the German ZEW survey for August, and Canada’s CPI for July. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, and earnings releases include Home Depot.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

EUROPE/ASIA

Asian stocks traded mixed as disappointing Chinese activity data clouded over the PBoC’s surprise rate cuts – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 01:39 AM

US stocks were mostly positive with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid the advances in Nvidia after MS named the stock a top pick.
APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested key releases including disappointing Chinese activity data and the PBoC’s surprise cuts to its 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.
DXY remains above 103, USD/CNH advanced to 7.3121 post-MLF reduction, AUD leads the majors, EUR/USD sits just above 1.09.
Highlights include, UK Unemployment, Swedish CPI, German & EZ ZEW, US Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed’s Kashkari, Supply from UK & Germany.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks were mostly positive and the major indices finished in the green albeit with varying degrees as the Nasdaq outperformed amid the advances in Nvidia (NVDA) after MS named the stock a top pick ahead of earnings and the mega-cap tech names (AAPL, MSFT and AMZN) also saw a decent session. S&P 500 was firmer and the Dow was relatively flat, while the Russell 2000 closed in the red with the downside led by losses in the regional banks.
SPX +0.57% at 4,489, NDX +1.18% at 15,205, DJIA +0.07% at 35,307, RUT -0.24% at 1,920.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US Treasury Secretary Yellen said inflation is coming down and a very large share of Americans feel good about their personal situation, while she feels good about the US economy overall. However, Yellen also commented that China’s developments and Russia’s war in Ukraine pose uncertainty for the global economy, as well as noted that slowing growth in China could spill over into the US and will have the largest impact on Asian neighbours, according to Reuters.
Cleveland Fed manufacturing and service sector 1yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% in July from 5.0% in April which is the lowest reading in two years.
FDIC Chairman said the US is considering making banks issue long-term debt to boost stability.
Prosecutors in the US state of Georgia filed legal action against former president Trump and 18 others over 2020 election interference in Georgia, while Trump was charged with 13 counts including violations of the Georgia Rico Act and forgery in the first degree, according to Reuters.
Hollywood studios made a new offer to screenwriters including concessions on issues such as the use of AI and access to viewer data, according to Bloomberg.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks traded mixed in an event-packed session as participants digested key releases including disappointing Chinese activity data and the PBoC’s surprise cuts to its 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates.
ASX 200 was firmer with most sectors in the green including the top-weighted financials after earnings from big 4 bank NAB which also announced a share buyback, while the RBA minutes provided little in the way of new information and kept the door open for further rate hikes although the latest Wage Price Index printed softer-than-expected.
Nikkei 225 benefitted from a strong GDP report which showed Japan’s economy expanded by the fastest annualised pace since Q4 2020 but was led by exports as private consumption contracted for the first time in 3 quarters.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued as the miss on Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales overshadowed the PBoC’s surprise 10bps and 15bps cuts for the 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates, respectively.
US equity futures were kept afloat (ES +0.2%) following the prior day’s gains with mild upside from the PBoC’s rate cuts.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.

FX

DXY largely ignored the various moving parts in Asia and held onto the prior day’s gains above 103.00.
EUR/USD was uneventful after recent declines and has since found a platform at the 1.0900 level.
GBP/USD traded sideways beneath resistance at the 1.2700 level heading into UK jobs and earnings data.
USD/JPY took a breather following its ascent above 145.00 and had little reaction to the strong GDP data.
Antipodeans were choppy but ultimately gained as AUD/USD shrugged off the China-related currency headwinds and softer Australian wage growth, while NZD/USD was kept afloat ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1768 vs exp. 7.2648 (prev. 7.1686)
Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures were subdued beneath the 110.00 level after yesterday’s continued bear flattening of the treasury curve and with the attention in the US turning to data releases including Empire Manufacturing and Retail Sales.
Bund futures remained lacklustre as yields held on to their recent upside and with ZEW data ahead.
10yr JGB futures saw two-way price action and reversed the early upside after weaker 5yr auction results.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures traded relatively little changed alongside the mixed signals from the Asia-Pac region.
US total shale regions September oil production is seen -19k BPD to 9.415mln bpd (prev. saw -15k BPD in August), according to EIA.
China’s July crude oil output rose 1.9% Y/Y to 122.4mln tons and nat gas output rose 7.6% Y/Y to 18.4bcm, while aluminium output rose 1.5% Y/Y to 3.48mln tons, according to the stats bureau.
India raised its windfall tax on petroleum crude to INR 7100/tonne (prev. 4250/tonne) with effect from August 15th, while it raised the windfall tax on diesel to INR 5.50/litre from 1/litre and raised the windfall tax on aviation turbine fuel to INR 2/litre from nil, according to Reuters citing a notification.
Spot gold was uneventful amid a steady dollar ahead of US data releases and tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes.
Copper futures were choppy as participants digested the weak Chinese data and the PBoC’s rate cuts.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin was marginally lower with prices constrained by the mixed risk appetite in Asia.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC conducted CNY 401bln in MLF and unexpectedly cut the 1-year MLF rate by 15bps to 2.50% from 2.65%, while it injected CNY 204bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate cut to 1.80% from 1.90%.
PBoC adviser called for the urgent need to boost residential consumption.
China NBS said the economy continued to recover in July and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be cemented, while it reiterated to boost domestic demand and noted that domestic demand is not sufficient. China’s stats bureau also stated that China’s economic recovery faces challenges but expects exports to be basically steady in H2 and said risks for property developers could be gradually resolved due to policy optimisation. Furthermore, the NBS said PPI declines are expected to moderate further and the decline in CPI could be temporary, while it anticipates China’s economy to improve as policies gain traction.
RBA Minutes from the August meeting stated that the Board considered raising rates by 25bps or holding steady and agreed that the case for holding steady was the stronger one, while the Board saw a credible path back to the inflation target with Cash Rates at the current 4.10% level but agreed it was possible some further tightening may be needed which would depend on data and evolving assessment of risks. Furthermore, it stated that inflation is heading in the right direction although service inflation is too high and the Board saw plausible scenarios where inflation took longer than acceptable to return to the target.

DATA RECAP

Chinese Industrial Production YY (Jul) 3.7% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Jul) 2.5% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 3.1%)
Chinese Urban Investment YTD YY (Jul) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%)
Chinese Urban Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.3% (Prev. 5.2%)
Japanese GDP QQ (Q2 P) 1.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.7%)
Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q2 P) 6.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.7%)
Japanese GDP QQ Private Consumption (Q2 P) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.5%)
Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q2) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%)

GEOPOLITICS

Russian Ambassador to the US said the US denied some Russian officials visas to travel to the APEC conference in Seattle, according to Reuters.
US senior administration official said the upcoming US-Japan-South Korea summit will launch a number of initiatives in technology, education and defence, but is unlikely to produce a three-way security framework. Furthermore, the summit is likely to lead to a mutual understanding about regional defence responsibilities and they are anticipating some steps that will bring the US, South Korea and Japan closer together in the security realm, according to Reuters.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA /

CHINA//JAPAN//ECONOMIC NEWS ON BOTH COUNTRIES

Japan, with a much weaker yen shows huge surge in economic growth in Q2. However the weaker yen killed consumption. Inflation is grabbing hold of its economy.

China; the PBOC surprisingly cuts rates as they ease ahead of the latest Chinese data dump. Yuan tumbles with both CNY and CNH dropping

(zerohedge)

PBOC Cuts Rates In Surprise ‘Easing’ Ahead Of Dismal China Data Dump; Japanese Economy Surged In Q2

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 10:05 PM

An Asian avalanche of data and headlines:

Japanese GDP surged in Q2 – doubling expectations on export-led growth
Japanese domestic spending weak
PBOC surprises with rate-cuts (biggest MLF cut since 2020)
MoF fix dramatically stronger than offshore yuan
Yuan tumbles below 2023 lows on rate-cuts
China 10Y yield drops to lowest since 2020
Chinese macro data missed across the board
China gold premium to London is soaring
China did not report its (record high) youth unemployment rate

* * *

The Japanese economy grew dramatically faster than expected in the second quarter, driven by strong exports data.

GDP grew at an annualized 6.0% in Q2 (the strongest growth since Q4 2020), more than double the 2.9% growth expected…

Source: Bloomberg

Outside of the post-COVID chaos, this is strongest annualized GDP growth for Japan since Q1 2015, even as economists see headwinds on the horizon in the US, China and Europe.

The export growth was helped by a plunge in the yen during Q2 (which, again outside of the COVID craziness, is the biggest quarterly drop in the Japanese currency since Q4 2016).

In fact, as Bloomberg reports, the yen has tumbled back toward a level that triggered the first yen-buying intervention since 1998 in September as yield differentials widened.

“We believe the Ministry of Finance will start pushing back in the 145-148 range,” wrote Joey Chew, head of Asia FX research at HSBC Holdings Plc in a note.

“But, if it does not, short positions on yen will likely be rebuilt further.”

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps the apparent strength of the Japanese economy will provide ‘room’ for the ‘buying’ intervention to stop the yen’s freefall?

The anemic yen has been a double-edged sword for the economy, said Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at the Nomura Research Institute.

“It can be a positive for exporters, increasing competitiveness and revenue,” he said.

“However, it could undermine consumption.”

And sure enough, while strong external demand supported the growth, domestically things aren’t so rosy as rising inflation made domestic households more hesitant to spend with private consumption dropping 0.5% QoQ – the weakest since Q1 2022…

“Compared with the January-March period, the improvement seen in consumption driven by increased activity has weakened,” said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Rising prices are increasingly causing consumers to hold off on buying items.”

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the high reliance on exports makes the recent growth vulnerable to other countries’ malaise. Recent softness in China, Japan’s largest trade partner, is a particular source of worry.

“We see clear signs of slowing in China and Europe,” Mr. Kiuchi, of the Nomura Research Institute, said.

That means “the stability of this high growth is unclear.”

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, and the largest creditor by far… meaning its growth or fragility reverberates around the world…

“The only problem – it was all export driven and masked rocky conditions in domestic demand,” Bloomberg economist Taro Kimura explains.

“The drop in consumption, despite a tailwind from this year’s reopening, reflects the impact of wages lagging far behind cost-push inflation.”

…but tonight we also get a data dump from the world’s second largest economy – China.

Amid a growing debt crisis, China’s trade outlook looking similarly dire (with overseas shipments tumbling in July by the most in more than three years, and imports contracted for a fifth consecutive month), and China’s banks having extended the smallest amount of monthly loans since 2009, and aggregate financing was less than half the level forecast by economists; the signals heading into tonight’s data suggest that China’s economy weakened further in July and Beijing was slow to arrest the decline.

Ahead of the China data dump, there was much excitement as the PBOC surprised with more ‘easing’ – sooner than most expected:

PBOC conducts 401b yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility at a yield of 2.5% vs 2.65% in the last operation, the central bank says in a statement.
PBOC also sells 204b yuan of 7-day reverse repo at a yield of 1.8% vs 1.9% in the last operation

Today’s MLF operation is “totally out of expectation,” says Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy of Standard Chartered Plc:

“The cut has been aggressive, indicating the urgency of stepping up measures to shore up credit growth,” Liu notes that today’s cut “will almost certainly” be followed by cuts to China’s loan prime rates on August 20.

This was the second cut this year (the last one was in June)…

Source: Bloomberg

While the PBOC delivered a surprise rate cut, its net injection this month was merely one billion yuan, the smallest since December, when the central bank started to pumping in funds in the operation.

Given the slump in new yuan loans and aggregate financing last month, this is understandable – there’s not much demand for credit at the moment.

Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, makes the point that today’s unexpected rate cuts follow incredibly weak loan data released late last week. Chinese banks extended the smallest amount of monthly loans since 2009 in July.

“The PBOC wants to get the banks to lend, but it seems it’s not being successful as both loan demand from households and credit-worth corporations have been weak. Banks are reluctant to lend to property companies and other private enterprises with more uncertain repayment abilities. Cutting rates can help at the margins but it may not be very effective in boosting loan demand when confidence is still weak in the corporate and household sectors.”

China fires a mini-bazooka…

The surprise action weakened the offshore yuan further (below 2023 lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

And China’s 10-year government bond dropped 6bps to 2.56%, lowest since 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

And as the yuan weakens, we note that China’s gold price is rising against levels in London, a trend that local traders say is due to government curbs on imports of the precious metal.

Source: Bloomberg

Gold’s attractiveness as a potential capital outflow could be rising on the back of the weaker domestic currency, and authorities may potentially stymie that trade – lending some support to the yuan – by squeezing import quotas.

And an additional sign of support is the dramatically ‘strong’ fixing for the Yuan…

Source: Bloomberg

In context, that is a serious gap and we note that China has set a stronger-than-expected fixing everyday since late June (to little or no avail)…

Source: Bloomberg

And that was all before the deluge of data (suggesting Beijing knew exactly what was about to hit the wires).

Everything Missed

The July data was as follows:

China Industrial Production YTD YoY +3.7% vs +3.8% exp and +3.8% prior
China Retail Sales YTD YoY +7.3% vs +7.6% exp and +8.2% prior
China Fixed Asset Investment YTD YoY +3.5% vs +3.7% and +3.8% prior
China Property Investment YTD YoY -8.5% vs -8.1% exp and -7.9% prior
China Surveyed jobless rate rose to 5.3% vs 5.2% exp and 5.2% prior
China Youth (16-24) Unemployment Rate was not disclosed in this report (was at record high 321.3% last month)

Now that explains why they pre-emptively cut rates…

Perhaps the most notable is the fact that NBS’ Fu says China will pause releasing the youth unemployment rate due to complexities in surveying.

The bureau will conduct more research on the data point, he adds.

Raymond Yeung, chief economist for greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.:

“July’s economic data are significantly below market consensus. The data turn out to have rationalized the surprising interest rate cut early in the morning.

In addition, the authorities are also aware of the recent financial events in the trust sector. There is a pressing need to revive market sentiment too.”

Finally, we note that this all matters and the Biden administration knows it.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called China’s economic woes a “risk factor” for the US, but one that doesn’t significantly dent her optimism for the American economy.

“China’s slowdown will have the largest impact on its Asian neighbors, but there will be some spillovers to the United States,” Yellen told reporters following a speech in Las Vegas, where she’s touting the economic policy accomplishments of the Biden administration.

Yellen’s comments come days after President Joe Biden blasted China’s economic problems as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks.”

end

CHINA/YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT PROBABLY SKYROCKETED:

“They Are Lying Every Day”: Backlash As China Stops Releasing Data On Soaring Youth Unemployment

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 02:40 PM

As we reported in July, China’s youth unemployment in prior months reached new record highs against a backdrop of disappointing second quarter GDP growth. China’s jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds surpassed 20% in June for the first time (at 21.3%, compare this to 12% just before the pandemic), with the next round of data out this week showing the official national figures had risen to 5.3% in July.

But now it seems in classic CCP fashion the “solution” is to simply make these troublesome figures disappear.

And so, the overseers of the world’s second-largest economy are taking firm steps to do more to shore up confidence the only way they know how – Beijing will now stop releasing youth unemployment figures altogether.

A government spokesman confirmed the decision Tuesday, vaguely alluding to a “generally stable” employment situation among recent college graduates. Fu Linghui of the National Bureau of Statistics claimed that withholding the data going forward is a matter of refining the way unemployment figures are calculated.

“The economy and society are constantly developing and changing. Statistical work needs continuous improvement,” the spokesman stated.

The decision appears to confirm the very thing Beijing authorities are the most concerned about, and it’s been met with swift backlash online, at a moment China’s post-pandemic economic recovery is obviously slowing, and amid growing concerns over the crisis-hit property market.

“They are lying every day,” 24-year old Cassie Sun, who is unemployed, said to NBC.

One commenter on Weibo complained, “The National Bureau of Statistics is being capricious,” and added:

“The unemployment rate is an important indicator of national economic development and should not be arbitrarily decided whether to release or not. The public has the right to know the truth.”

“As long as I don’t announce it, then nobody is unemployed,” another poster said. If only…

Problematically, the youth population is an important driver for overall consumption: the 15-24 year-old group accounted for 17% of total consumption (2010 data, based on household surveys and academic research). This age group tends to spend more on culture and education, residence (for example paying rents), transportation and communication.

Compounding the emerging unemployment crisis is, as FT notes, the news that China has officially fallen into deflation:

“Deflation is feared because declining prices persuade people to defer purchases, cooling the consumer vigor that Beijing has been trusting to propel a recovery from the pandemic,” the outlet observes.

Concerning unemployment, if there is one thing Beijing wants no part of, it is tens of millions of young Chinese sitting idle, doing and earning nothing as they watch their big city pals sport the latest gadget du jour, and getting angry – if not regime changey – thoughts.

FT presents an example of how President Xi’s dominant “comprehensive national security” emphasis is weighing heavy on the young, adding to the uncertainty…

The concerns of Wang Ning (not his real name), who works for a technology consultancy in Beijing, help demonstrate the way in which worries over China’s political direction are crimping people’s desire to spend. Even though he earns an above-average salary of Rmb35,000 a month, Wang has begun imposing spending quotas on himself, arranged by specific categories.

Dining out, for instance, is limited to Rmb1,000 a week while spending on clothes and other items is similarly subject to fiscal discipline. The reasons for his austerity are a mix of big picture geopolitics and job market insecurity. Like many big city dwellers these days, his long-held belief in a better tomorrow has been undermined by what he sees as Beijing’s preoccupation with national security at the expense of generating GDP growth.

“I save as much as I can to prepare for black swan events like an invasion of Taiwan or a collapse in real estate markets,” Wang says. Speculation over whether and when China might seek to attack Taiwan — which it regards as its own territory — has become a feature of private conversations in large cities, with 2027 often cited as a likely date.

Meanwhile, the government has given no timeline on this temporary suspension on publishing youth joblessness data.

What we can be sure of though, is that the censors are busy clamping down on those Chinese citizens brave enough to vent their anger and frustration online.

Of course, this kind of censorship is nothing new, as the FT reports, Chinese authorities are (again) putting pressure on, which is a polite way of saying barring, prominent local economists to “avoid discussing negative trends such as deflation, as concerns mount about Beijing’s ability to boost a flagging recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy.”

Finally, although a little tongue in cheek, we did offer a ‘solution’ to China’s youth unemployment crisis.

Commodore Research notes that “it is becoming increasingly uncomfortable that the world’s concerns of a coming war in Taiwan are intensifying at the very same time that China’s youth unemployment is surging.”

And while caveating its prediction, the firm cautions that “the record level of China’s youth unemployment, concerns over Taiwan, and countless Ukrainian and Russian youth already engaged in a European land war all continue to weigh heavily on our mind

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS

This is going to be trouble for European Natural Gas. It surges 15% as a strike looms at Australian LNG plants

(zerohedge)

European NatGas Surges 15% As Strike Threats Mount At Australian LNG Plants

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 10:10 AM

Yet another stunning move in European NatGas on Tuesday as prices soared 15% following last week’s 40% jump due to increasing labor action risks in Australia.

Bloomberg spoke with energy traders who said the Gorgon facility on Barrow Island off the northern coast of Western Australia had reduced sales over the increasing risks of a strike.

Talks were scheduled to take place between union officials and Woodside Energy Group Ltd., one of the two companies operating the affected liquefied natural gas facilities. –BBG

A Goldman Sachs analysis revealed potential strikes at three top LNG sites operated by Chevron and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. could disrupt global supplies. These three locations account for as much as 10% of global LNG exports.

“The potential for strike action at LNG export plants in Australia once again highlights the fact that we are now clearly in a globalised gas market,” ICIS analyst Tom Marzec-Manser told the Financial Times.

“Europe has understandably backfilled Russian pipeline supply with versatile LNG. But that versatility leads to increased price volatility.”

On Monday, Australia’s Fair Work Commission approved workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone offshore platform to vote on possible industrial action. This follows earlier labor action votes for workers at Wheatstone and Gorgon downstream facilities and at Woodside’s North West Shelf.

Australia’s Top Producing LNG Areas

Today’s news sent European benchmark NatGas futures up 15%. Prices soared 40% last week after the first report of potential labor action at various LNG facilities in Australia could threaten global supply.

The good news for Europe is that demand for NatGas remains soft. Storage facilities across the continent are 89.45% full, the highest level for this time of year in over a decade.

Before Europe and much of the Northern Hemisphere realize it, the heating season will arrive in the next couple of months, driving demand for NatGas higher.

The bad news is that Europe’s decoupling of reliable and cheap NatGas flows from Russia subjects it to sourcing the fuel elsewhere around the globe, making it prone to supply snarls and or what could soon be labor actions in Australia.

“The crisis is not over yet,” the chief executive of E.ON, one of Germany’s biggest utilities, said earlier this month.

“We must continue to work on the issue of austerity. This is the best way to ensure affordability for customers and also to achieve competitiveness of our society and our economy.”

If the CEO of E.ON is talking about austerity—not exactly a popular idea among regular electricity consumers—then the situation must be serious. It suggests there is no great chance of abundant LNG supply and weak competition from Asia that would make the commodity cheaper. That leaves limiting demand as the only choice.

Winter is coming

end

Poland/Belarus

Robert h;

this would be a serious escalation!

Serious Escalation: ‘Poland Will Attack Belarus’ Says Russians – Three Divisions Received Offensive Order – Air Force & Airborne Unit Redeployment – WarNews247

If you recall, long ago i wrote how Polish troops were being trained to take over electrical power stations and refineries in Belarus. This information actually came from people doing the training. This practice was not for nothing, as this move has been planned long in advance.

The real tragedy for the Polish public beckons because Poland will not receive the same treatment with kid gloves that Ukraine has received. And Russia has warned that an attack on Belarus is attack on Russia and will be responded to. This means nukes and tactical strikes on Polish infrastructure to quell any real ability to maintain an offensive posture. This will not take weeks or months as a response will be swift and cutting and shake other European nations to the core. Even CBDC’s will not quell civic unrest that results. Why do you think all manner of funding is now collapsing in Europe as people run frightened with capital to perceived safe harbors.

It is not without coincidence that a number of Russians have left North America and Europe and returned to Russia for extended visits. Perhaps it is safer there.

The quacks pushing this seem to have convinced themselves that they are not subject to missile strikes. Perhaps, they are blind to the reality that one of newest Russian subs has been outfitted with Zircons which are guide missiles at the edge of space traveling at MACH20 ….

https://warnews247.gr/sovari-klimakosi-h-polonia-tha-epitethei-stin-lefkorosia-lene-oi-rosoi-treis-merarchies-elavan-epithetiki-diataxi-anadiataxi-aeroporias-aerometaferomenon-monadon/

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/

Russia raises its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 12% in an emergency move to stem the loss of the rouble. Rouble rises to 98.48 to the dollar. Their economy is growing at around 4%. But their current account surplus is only 1% of GDP as Russia probably will not fund a deficit.

(zerohedge)

Russia Hikes Rates To 12% In Emergency Move To Halt Rouble’s Collapse

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 07:38 AM

Russia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 12% on Tuesday, an emergency move to try and halt the rouble’s recent plunge after a public call from the Kremlin for tighter monetary policy.

This was the second straight increase and the sharpest since the start of the of Ukraine war almost 18 months ago. The emergency meeting came after the rouble tumbled past the 100 threshold against the dollar on Monday, dragged down by the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s balance of trade and as military spending soars.

The rouble pared gains after the decision to stand 0.5% weaker at 98.16, but still significantly above lows near 102 on Monday which had not been hit since the early weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine.

On Monday, president Vladimir Putin’s economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin rebuked the central bank, blaming what he called its soft monetary policy for weakening the rouble. Hours after Oreshkin’s words, the bank announced the emergency meeting, throwing the currency a lifeline.

The accompanying Bank of Russia statement was considerably shorter than previous ones. Unlike in the press release after the last meeting, the Bank refrained from including the usual hawkish phrase that “the Bank of Russia holds open the prospect of a further increase at its next meeting”, suggesting that today’s outsized hike is at least partially front-loading the hiking cycle that we and consensus had expected, and leading some analysts to speculate that interest rates had peaked.

“Inflationary pressure is building up,” the bank said in the statement adding that “the pass-through of the rouble’s depreciation to prices is gaining momentum and inflation expectations are on the rise.”

But a little after the decision, the bank issued an additional statement: “In the case of strengthening pro-inflationary risks, an additional increase in the key rate is possible.”

The Bank continues to see inflationary pressure building and puts inflation momentum and core inflation momentum in the 3 months to 7 August at 7.6% and 7.1% respectively, well above the 4% target. Similar to the previous statement, the Bank attributes the price pressure to “steady domestic demand surpassing the capacity to expand output” and, unlike in the previous statement, it explicitly links strong domestic demand to the recent depreciation of the Ruble through its positive impact on import growth.

Commenting on the decision, Goldman analyst Clemens Grafe writes that “the Bank’s economic assessment remains close to ours. Final domestic demand was, in our view, close to 4% above the pre-Ukraine invasion level in an economy that we estimate saw its potential output contract by a slightly smaller margin over the same period. Hence, stabilizing prices will require a meaningful slowdown in the economy. The strong expansion of domestic demand has also reduced the current account rapidly through higher imports, which in USD terms have risen back to slightly above the level in Q4-2021. Consequently, the current account surplus has fallen to our estimate of 1% of GDP in Q2 from close to 10% in 2022.”

He adds that “given the sanctions imposed on Russia, we doubt Russia would be able to fund a current account deficit, nor do we think the CBR would be willing to fund it from its reserves. Thus, we consider a balanced current account as a binding constraint on the economy, and hitting that constraint would lead to sizeable Ruble volatility. While the recent rise in oil prices will likely alleviate that risk somewhat, we interpret the front-loading of the hiking cycle partially as the Bank wanting to ensure it keeps the economy away from that BoP constraint.”

As Bloomberg notes, the precipitous decline in the Russian currency has thrust the central bank onto center stage in an increasingly fraught debate over how to steer an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and isolated from international financial markets. And even with rates now at their highest in over a year, the market remains unimpressed as capital seeps out.

“The recent acceleration of ruble weakness might indicate that some cracks in the capital control might have emerged and therefore capital might be able to flee Russia at an increasing speed,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG. “The rate hike will hardly convince those who might have a choice to keep their capital inside Russia.”

The central bank last made an emergency rate hike in late February 2022 with a rate raise to 20% in the immediate fallout of Russia’s despatching troops to Ukraine. The bank then steadily lowered the cost of borrowing to 7.5% as strong inflation pressure eased in the second half of 2022.

Since its last cut in September 2022, the bank had held rates but steadily increased its hawkish rhetoric, eventually hiking by 100 basis points to 8.5% at its last scheduled meeting in July. The next rate decision is due on Sept. 15.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has won plaudits for her handling of the economy since Russia began what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, but the plunging rouble and high inflation have put her on the back foot, especially among pro-war nationalists. The Kremlin’s public criticism of her monetary policy adds further pressure as Russia heads towards a presidential election in March 2024, with consumers battling rising prices for basic goods.

“While such a depreciation risks boosting inflation, it is also the signal it sends out to the Russian public about the costs of the invasion of Ukraine,” said Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London.

“As such, today’s decision will likely have had an element of politics behind it as well as economics.”

Quoted by Reuters, Andrei Melaschenko, economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said the bank was right to react to inflation risks, but that the meeting, being announced so soon after Kremlin criticism, raised questions about the bank’s independence.

“(Nabiullina) has built quite a strong team around her and the central bank has been a strong regulator and I think and the market, both the domestic and international market, sees it that way.”

Russia saw double-digit inflation in 2022 and after a deceleration in the spring of 2023 due to that high base effect, annual inflation is now above the central bank’s 4% target once more and quickening. In annualized terms on a seasonally adjusted basis, current price growth over the last three months amounted to 7.6% on average, the bank said.

Promsvyazbank analysts said an additional hike may be required if the rouble does not stabilize and that measures to reduce the rouble liquidity surplus were also needed.

Russia’s widening budget deficit and stark labor shortage have contributed to rising inflationary pressure this year, but the rouble’s rapid slide from around 70 against the dollar at the start of the year to more than 100 on Monday pushed the central bank to act.

The bank, which blames the rouble’s slide on Russia’s shrinking current account surplus – down 85% year-on-year in January-July – has already tried to limit the rouble’s decline.

Last week, it halted the finance ministry’s FX purchases to try to reduce volatility, a step that effectively saw Russia abandon its budget rule. Analysts widely agreed that those measures alone were too minimal in scope to significantly support the currency.

Looking ahead, Goldman writes that in its view “the Ruble will continue to weaken unless oil prices rise” and notes that in July, the real effective exchange rate was still about 10% stronger than in Q4-2021 on the Bank of Russia’s index, and hence Goldman does not view the Ruble as undervalued.

The transmission of rates to the Ruble is likely to be slow. Given the sanctions, the financial channel is weaker than it used to be and the main transmission of interest rates to the currency would instead be through lower domestic demand and weaker imports, which will take time. Whether today’s rate hike will ultimately suffice remains, in our view, primarily a function of fiscal policy and oil prices. Fiscal policy was very loose in H1-2023, with real expenditures of the consolidated budget up 12%yoy. The Ministry of Finance continues to say that spending was considerably front-loaded and that the deficit would be contained at 2% of GDP in 2023 and largely unchanged from last year. While real expenditure growth had indeed fallen to 5%yoy in June, the deficit target would require a sustained tightening of fiscal policy in H2-2023, a correction that seems unusual in a time of military conflict.

Hence, we think it seems more likely that higher oil prices could support the Ruble in the short run, in line with the view of our commodity strategists, who see Brent prices in the mid-US$80s till year-end.

Others agreed: “Today’s rate hike will only temporarily slow the bleeding,” said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London.

“Russia will struggle to attract capital inflows because of sanctions,” he said. “And there’s little ammunition for FX intervention – the central bank has some unfrozen renminbi assets and gold reserves, but the bar for using these is likely to be high.”

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Probably correct: Ukraine’s military resources are almost exhausted

(zerohedge)

Ukraine’s Military Resources Are “Almost Exhausted”, Russian Defense Chief Says

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 11:45 AM

Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu in fresh remarks before a security conference in Moscow acknowledged that while the special military operation in Ukraine has been a real test for Russia, the reality is that Ukraine’s ability to fight and its resources have been “almost exhausted”.

He further said the Russian military has learned much about the West’s advanced weapons systems in the process. “In the special military operation, the Russian army has debunked many myths about the superiority of Western military standards,” he said in the rare public speech, as cited in Reuters.

“The preliminary results of combat operations show that Ukraine’s military resources are almost exhausted,” he emphasized at one point, but without providing further specifics.

Importantly, China’s own defense chief, Li Shangfu, was in the audience for the event. The Kremlin has recently said that a Putin trip to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping is “on the agenda”, to happen by year’s end.

Shoigu during the speech touted the large numbers of Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles that have been taken out on the Ukrainian battlefield.

“We have data on … the destruction of German tanks, American armored vehicles, British missiles and other weapons systems,” he said. “We are ready to share our assessments … with our partners.”

Likely he had China in particular in mind, also as he followed by comparing the West’s deep involvement in Ukraine to the Taiwan situation. He then said: “Under these conditions, bilateral relations between Russia and China have surpassed the level of strategic ties in all respects, becoming more than just allied.”

While time may soon tell whether or not Ukraine’s defenses are “almost exhausted” – it has become very clear that the counteroffensive is not going well, and Biden’s ‘all in’ support to Kiev is becoming politically unpopular and an additional liability for Democrats going into the 2024 presidential election.

Another key part of the Russian defense chief’s speech touched on nuclear weapons. He blasted allegations by the West that Putin is ready to use them:

“From a military point of view, there is no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve the set goals,” Shoigu said at an international security conference in Moscow.

He slammed media speculation that Russia could potentially use nuclear or chemical weapons to compensate for slow progress in its nearly six-month military campaign in Ukraine as “absolute lies.”

Alarmist headlines related to the potential for nuclear apocalypse in international press reports grew especially after Moscow moved tactical nuclear weapons into neighboring Belarus. The Kremlin, however, noted the US had long kept nukes in Europe and Turkey under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement. Russian officials have also emphasized that nuclear doctrine has not changed.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Robert H to us:

Hal Turner Radio Show – Poland Army Moves Through Warsaw – Massive Convoys, Tanks, Artillery, Armor

The next expendable pawn being moved.
NATO does not have resources to back this play. Watch for future civil unrest.
Russia has been holding back on certain missiles to use on Polish forces. Simple case of productive output not be used and moved into position.
Sad reality cometh

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/poland-army-moves-through-warsaw-massive-convoys-tanks-artillery-armor

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

end

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES// CLIMATE CHANGE

China Abandons Clean Energy Goals Making US Efforts Painful And Pointless

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 12:45 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Bidenomics and the EPA have America on a path of inflationary and environmental madness that’s all pain and no gain…

Painful and Pointless

Please consider the Heritage Foundation article Chin a Abandons Paris Agreement, Making U.S. Efforts Painful and Pointless

Three Key Takeaways

China has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of going along with the Western push to net-zero.
EVs are not emissions-free, because they need electricity to charge them, and electricity generation creates emissions.
All these costs will result in no reduction in global emissions. The EPA has America on a path to all pain and no gain.

It was a bad week for anyone who thought China would cooperate on emissions reduction. President Xi Jinping reiterated that his country would set its own path on the issue and not be influenced by outside factors, according to the Washington Post and Bloomberg. This contradicts Xi’s 2015 Paris Agreement pledges to reduce its carbon emissions at the latest after 2030.

This should not be news, because Xi gave the same message last fall. In October 2022, he said that China would not abandon coal-fired power plants before renewables could substitute for the lost fossil fuel.

In April, the EPA released a proposed tailpipe rule that would require 60 percent of new vehicle sales to be battery-powered electric by 2030, and two-thirds by 2032. And in May, the EPA proposed a power-plant rule that would require most power plants to sequester, or bury, 90 percent of their carbon emissions, or go out of business by 2040.

These rules would result in tens of billions of dollars in annual costs to the U.S. economy—and with no reduction to global emissions, if China replaces U.S. emissions with its own emissions.

EVs are not emissions-free, because they need electricity to charge them, and electricity generation creates emissions. Even the EPA states in the proposed rule that “we expect that in some areas, increased electricity generation would increase ambient SO2, PM 2.5, ozone, or some air toxics.”

The power-plant rule would raise the cost of electricity just as the EPA plans to have millions of new EVs access the grid. Sequestering 90 percent of carbon emissions on such a large scale has never been done before, and it is not an “adequately demonstrated” technology. The only proven option for a power plant to comply with the proposed regulation is to close down.

The rule would remove power from the grid at a time when America needs more power for planned electrification, and it would likely cause more blackouts. Blackouts can have serious consequences, including death, especially if they occur during periods of unusually high or low temperatures when power is most needed.

In addition, higher costs of electricity will have adverse economic effects. Prices will rise, manufacturing will go offshore, and layoffs and unemployment will increase. All this will lower GDP growth and reduce Americans’ standard of living.

The EPA has America on a path to all pain and no gain.

Second Thoughts in the EU

Because of rising costs to achieve climate goals, the EU is having second thoughts .

Also, support for the Green party in Germany is crumbling and support for Marine Le Pen is rising in France.

Behold, the Rise of the Anti-Greens

Please consider my July 24, 2023 post Behold, the Rise of the Anti-Greens

A major revolt is underway in the EU. Citizens have finally had enough of Green nonsense. The latest polls provide all the evidence you need.

The German AfD party is now polling 22 percent ahead of every party other than Union (CDU/CSU).

None of this should be surprising. The costs of the EU’s climate change mandate are soaring and people have had enough of it.

Electric Vehicles for Everyone?

On July 19, I asked Electric Vehicles for Everyone? If the Dream Was Met, Would it Help the Environment?

My follow-up post was What Do MishTalk Readers Think About “Elect ric Vehicles for Everyone?”

Math Does Not Add Up

The EV math does not add up in the EU or here. But the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), better known as the Eurozone, has economic debt brakes and budget rules that make matters more painful for the 20 EMU countries.

In the US, deficits pile up as do the economic impacts of a massive wave of Bidenomic regulations and mandates.

We pretend that deficits don’t matter and mainstream media not only looks the other way, but is in on the act with countless fearmongering stories.

As a direct consequence, the US is riding a huge wave of inflationary and environmental madness. The only way to stop it is for Republicans to oust Biden in the next presidential election.

A reader ignorantly commented “My Tesla S can easily over a hundred miles per gallon equivalent. As utilities get cleaner so does my car. ”

I replied: Well la de da.

Where did the minerals come from for your battery? At what cost? At what cost if everyone stupidly did the same?
At what environmental cost to extract the minerals.
At what cost to build the infrastructure so everyone can plug in?

No one has ever scaled EVs to estimate the mining costs and infrastructure costs if everyone did the same thing.

It’s like all these free money experiments of giving people money to see if it makes their lives better.

No one has ever scaled EVs to estimate the mining costs and infrastructure costs if everyone did the same thing.

It’s like all these free money experiments of giving people money to see if it makes their lives better.

Zuckerberg Supports Universal Basic Income

For discussion, please see Zuckerberg Support s Un iversal Basic Income

* * *

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

-END-

DR PAUL ALEXANDER..

Yahoo News: ‘New Covid vaccines (XBB.1.5) are on the way as ‘Eris’ (EG.5) variant rises’; in simple, these beasts keeping this going forever, the XBB.1.5 gene shot will FAIL; MISMATCH with EG.5 spike

original antigenic sin (recalled antibodies to legacy Wuhan that’s gone & now mismatch); they know it, Pfizer etc. that selective pressure + infectious pressure & sub-immune pressure drives variants

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 14

They know that as long as there is circulating virus, that the vaccine induced Antibodes will not get the space and time to arrive at full binding affinity, full maximal maturation and as such, will only bind weakly to the target antigen, and as such will pressure the virus but not sterilize/neutralize it, and thus viral immune escape will result and variants will be selected that could overcome the sub-optimal immune pressure and thus there will be infection and re-infection. The danger is the XBB.1.5 vaccine onto a mismatched EG.5 spike could drive further emergence (will drive0 of more infectious variants, clades and one or two could be lethal, virulent and threaten humanity.

Thus the reporting here is garbage and dangerous for the reporters and the moronic reporters even experts they bring on under-estimate and disregard the evolutionary biology (the dance and interplay between the virus and the population immune response where they both press back on each other and respond to each other) and result when you mismatch vaccine to antigen (as we did prior and are doing again) and you have ongoing infection (massive infectious pressure with circulating virus) while you role out a vaccine that imposes only sub-optimal immue pressure (mounting from the population) and what we can call ‘non-lethal’ pressure on the target; the virus will evolve and adapt and respond to this ‘weak’ non-lethal pressure and select (Darwinian natural selection) the variants that are fittest and could overcome this sub-optimal pressure, and they will become enriched in the environment and become dominant. Again, consider if a lethal variant is selected. Lethal and infectious. So far we have been dealing with infectious clades and these demons who are doing this (Boula, Bancel, Sahin etc.) know that this is a real risk and not only theoretical.

In other words, this is a clusterfu*k disaster in the making and if this keeps up, we will have this ongoing for another century. These beasts know what they are doing, they cannot be that stupid. Or can they?

END

‘Big Pharma Dissident Karen Kingston Claims She is Forced to Flee Country To Save Life’; speaks candidly with Dr. Peter & Ginger Breggin and has gone into hiding. ‘She recorded a video on August

9th 2023 xpressing dread that Malone or CIA contacts might be behind an attempt to physically harm her.’ Diana West: “The history of repression is filled with dissidents fleeing, hiding, disappearing”

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 15

West: ‘You must watch the video and make of it what you will for yourself. Just remember something. The history of repression is filled with dissidents fleeing, hiding, disappearing, and dying. Only usually, we don’t get to see the haunted look in their eyes.’

Peter and Ginger Breggin Exposing the Global Predators

‘Big Pharma Dissident Karen Kingston Claims She is Forced to Flee Country To Save Life’

Karen Kingston appeared on our former TV show, ReFounding America, on Brighteon.com in March1 and then April2 of 2023. We liked and admired her, and I recall that she was a powerful reformer but not yet feeling the confidence that I encouraged her to have. She was coming up with new and important questions and information…

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Biden ‘Close’ to Declaring ‘Climate Emergency’ to Ration Gas, Electricity, Meat Joe Biden is “close” to signing an executive order to declare a “climate emergency,” granting the Democrat president sweeping new powers to enforce lockdowns and other tyrannical measures in order to “save the planet” from “global warming,” a public policy think tank is warning.READ MORE

New York Gov Humiliates ‘Border Czar’ Harris, Sends National Guard to Secure County as Migrants Arrested for Sex Crimes New York’s Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul and Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz have humiliated “border Czar” Kamala Harris after two migrants were arrested for sex crimes.READ MORE

Top New York Democrat Revolts, Deals Crushing Blow to Biden: ‘Our Community’s Trust and Good Faith Have Been Betrayed’A top New York Democrat official said he will refuse additional resettlements of migrants after multiple arrests of illegal aliens over serious crimes.READ MORE

James Woods Warns America about Reality of Democrat ‘Utopia’: ‘California Is a Lawless Hellscape on the Verge of Anarchy’Hollywood legend James Woods has warned the rest of America about the cold realities of living in a Democrat “utopia.”READ MORE

Ted Cruz Calls for Impeachment Inquiry into Biden over Bribery Allegations Republican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has called on Congress to launch an impeachment inquiry into Democrat President Joe Biden over allegations he received millions of dollars in bribes.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Gets Revenge on Fox News Former Fox News star Tucker Carlson is getting his revenge on the network that fired him by lining up two megadonors to back his new media company. READ MORE

Kyle Rittenhouse Gets Last Laugh as Man Who Shot First Gets Sentenced to 3 Years in Prison for Robbery Joshua Ziminski fired a shot right before Kyle Rittenhouse had to shoot three men in self-defense.READ MORE

Obama’s Brother Malik Knocks Barack Off High Horse: “It seems like once he became a big shot it got to his head and now he thinks that he’s god”Former President Barack Obama’s older half-brother, Malik Obama slammed Barrack for being a ‘disappointment saying power went to his head. He also posted a photo of himself wearing a hat that read, “F Biden” and said he will be supporting former President Donald Trump in 2024. “F BIDEN,” Malika Obama wrote on social media with a photo of himself wearing …READ MORE

California Preschool Teacher Demands ‘Queerness’ Taught to Toddlers, Blasts ‘Innocence’ of Children A “woke” California preschool teacher has been provoking outrage on social media among concerned parents after making inflammatory demands for “inappropriate” subjects to be taught to young children.READ MORE

Biden Admin Moves to Ban Private Gun Sales with New ATF Rules Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration is moving to ban private guns sale under new a federal rule planned by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF).READ MORE

Danish Air Force Intercepts Russian Bombers Flying ‘Toward NATO Territory’The Dutch military just revealed that the Danish Air Force has scrambled fighter jets to intercept two Russian bombers that were headed “toward NATO territory” in the Netherlands.READ MORE

First Democrat Rep Calls for Biden to Step Aside: ‘The Call to Action Is to Ask the President to Pass the Torch’Democrat Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) has called for President Joe Biden to step aside and “pass the torch” to somebody else.READ MORE

Kamala Harris Claims She’s Worried about ‘Erosion of Democracy’ as Walls Close In on Biden Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris has claimed that she’s worried about “what an erosion of democracy will mean for the American people.”READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

TEST NEWS:

Jack Smith’s Deeply TROUBLING PastRead more…CNN Lectures People On The Use of NeopronounsRead more…First Dem Rep Calls For Joe Biden To Hang It Up: “The call to action is to ask the president to pass the torch, he has historically low approval numbers”Read more…Barack Obama’s Relative Says ‘Yes I Am’ All In on Support for Donald Trump in 2024Read more…Far-right militant Ammon Bundy arrested on outstanding warrant in long-running defamation caseRead more…Will Budweiser Have a Savior? Millionaire Heir Wants to ‘Make Bud Light Great Again’Read more…After Jim Jordan Proved Biden Was Guilty, Kamala Has The Gall To Say She’s Worried About The “Erosion of Democracy”Read more…Five Confirmed Dead After US Explosion Rocks Quiet NeighborhoodRead more…

…

LATEST NEWS:

NEWS ADDICTS

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

“I Am Become Death, The Destroyer Of Barbie World” Says The Fed, And The PBOC Too

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 09:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Real Barbenheimer

Key emerging markets are ‘bombing’:

Despite rising oil prices, the Russian RUB briefly fell past 102, with an emergency central bank meeting today likely to raise rates.
Despite rising agri commodity prices, Argentina officially devalued ARS by 18% and raised interest rates 2,100bps to 118% – as Bloomberg puts it, “to reassure investors as assets went into free fall Monday after a populist who vowed to burn down the central bank won surprisingly strong support in a primary vote.“
Despite soaring auto exports and a vast trade surplus, China’s CNY and CNH are brushing 2022 lows, with rumours of massive FX intervention to prevent a slump to levels last seen 20 years ago: yet the PBOC worked in the opposite direction in surprising markets today with a 15bps cut to its 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate to 2.50%.

Yes, Russia has a near war-economy, Argentina’s leading presidential candidate wants to dollarize the economy without holding any dollars, and China has massive economic problems. But JPY is also 145.5 despite a bumper Q2 print of 6.0% y-o-y annualized vs. 2.9% expected, which will put more pressure on the BOJ to allow 10-year yields to drift higher. Indeed, what we are seeing is a market chain reaction that was both predictable and arguably deliberate – it just takes the correct theoretical way of understanding the world to grasp it.

This kind of thinking is not something Mr. Market likes to do because it’s hard and uncomfortable. For example, in the movie Oppenheimer it’s revealed that once Einstein released his Theory of Relativity in 1905 it would inevitably lead to a deadly global nuclear arms race decades later: Ouch! Equally, economic theories implemented since the 1980s which made Mr. Market rich have inexorably led us to exploding financial assets today.

If willing, start by recognizing the global economy has vast structural problems related to neoliberal financialisation and asset bubbles replacing physical production from the late 1970s until the Global Financial Crisis in 2008; then idiotic negative-rates-and-austerity can-kicking to bail out the rich; then a Covid lockdown and fiscal surge with no local supply chains; and now rapid rate hikes, which are straining global asset classes. The results have been simply awful.

‘The Long, Slow Death of Global Development’ outlines how Global South economies used to have industrial sectors as growth drivers until neoliberalism hollowed them out, leaving only volatile commodity and rates cycles and low-productivity services “wage hunters and gatherers”, “too many workers and far too few good jobs to put them in”, and “premature financialization” of a “highly predatory character.” That’s Argentina, and many others. There is no easy fix, which is why ‘dollarisation’ is flagged as well as ‘dedollarisation’, global commodity producers try to move up the value chain, and we see war and coups.

Yet today the West looks like the Global South too. Its YouTubers, TikTok influencers, and gig jobbers can’t afford to buy or rent a home, marry or have kids, or even eat well or stay warm: they flood into digital pyramid schemes. Governments seem incompetent or powerless. Populism is surging. The Guardian argues, ‘Let’s stop kidding ourselves we’re a rich nation and get real… the UK’s gone bust’, and that: “Britain has to start thinking of itself not as a rich industrial country but as a poor country facing first-order economic development challenges. Large parts of the UK are scarcely better off than middle-income developing countries, and on current trends are about to get poorer.” I was saying DM = EM in 2022, if you recall.

China didn’t follow the neoliberal script with its mercantilist state-capitalism, and post-2008 relied on massive debt/over-investment as well as a property bubble. Yet there is a limit to how high property prices can usefully go, how low the consumption share of GDP can fall, how much debt can be carried, and how much investment can be productively absorbed – and those limits have all been exceeded, with everything made worse by a trade and tech war with the US.

Indeed, local government finances and the national economy are reportedly “on the verge of collapse, and the thunder will explode at any time.”; Country Garden just defaulted; Zhongzhi Enterprise Group missed payments on high-yield investment products; recent bank loan data were terrible; and today saw industrial production 3.7% y-o-y (4.3% expected), retail sales 2.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.0%), fixed asset investment 3.4% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. 3.7%), property sales -8.5% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. -8.1%), and unemployment 5.3% vs. 5.2%. Summing it up, China “has fallen into a psycho-political funk,” says the FT, as its youth tell Soviet jokes again or say ‘let it rot’, and a high-earning Beijing worker is quoted as saving as much as he can to prepare for a property crash or a move against Taiwan.

So, yes, theories implemented decades ago are coming home explosively. But what now?

Mr. Market thinks there is an easy way out. There isn’t. Rate cuts won’t help China and will put more pressure on CNY, which will create more global protectionism, while Chinese FX intervention will risk pushing US Treasury yields higher, pushing the dollar up more. More fiscal stimulus into over-priced property or under-utilised infrastructure or capital stock won’t help growth, nor will more consumer debt. Deep structural change is needed, but isn’t politically acceptable.

The same is true for the West. There, Mr. Market sees the solution as rate cuts and austerity. Both will only accelerate metastasizing Brazilification. Stimulus into over-priced property would also be useless, although unlike China it can go into over-utilised infrastructure or capital stock.

So can we project forward using Einstein > Oppenheimer theoretical logic of what might help? Yes.

I mentioned at the beginning that the explosion being seen in EM today was arguably deliberate. Allow me to expand on that.

As ‘The Long, Slow Death of Global Development’ concludes:

Western elites “have not forged a new developmentalism that they can offer the poor world in the aftermath of global deindustrialization. In the absence of a new paradigm… it is the blind who are leading the blind. Indeed, the intellectual exhaustion of the elite “development community” is hard to fathom. In its upper echelons, those who still believe in the hoary orthodoxies of past decades –free trade, democratization, the extraordinary importance of what are nebulously referred to as “inclusive institutions”– coexist uneasily with more humble types who will admit, in private, that they have no real answer at all.”

And the same applies to the Global North, which also needs to relearn development theory rapidly.

Yet Mr. Market, with the greatest array of intellectual firepower since Los Alamos, is not focused on this theoretical thinking because he now lives in Barbie World and only wants pink plastic rate cuts, higher asset prices, and more China stimulus: welcome to the real ‘Barbenheimer’!

But others outside markets are thinking more deeply. Even though there are Fed doves backing rate cuts, Powell appears to recognize what the Pentagon and White House do: that the US needs to shift to production from financialisation; to higher defense spending vs. China and Russia; to industrial policy; and on-/near-/friend-shore supply chains alongside its green transition. Moreover, while unemployment needs to rise a little, it cannot be allowed to spike for fear of the political consequences. Overall, this process will take years, and it will be inflationary throughout. But the alternative is arguably worse from a national-security perspective.

Ironically, this is a partial reversal to the pre-1971 Bretton Woods pattern of industrial production that neoliberalism rejected, for some at least: expect it to get more intellectual flesh on its bones as time passes. Just not from many in markets.

As such, the one thing that the Fed can do to accelerate this transition is to keep rates higher for longer, at least relative to others. (Like the RBA, who are clearly still very much into over-priced property and financialisation rather than physical production, as their latest minutes show they think they can see rates peak at just 4.1% despite a stronger economy than the UK or US. Property spruikers will be out cracking open the champagne as we speak.)

Via a higher US dollar, the Fed can then help cap commodity prices, which are rising again, risking an inflation upswing in H2 2023 and H1 2024 – and hurting Russia and ‘dedollarization’ rivals to boot; it can push back against bullish China stories and pull capital into US markets; and it will see more headlines bewailing the struggles of the private equity industry, or that the ‘Number of China hedge funds falls for first time since 2012’, as ‘Investors bemoan end of an era for offshore China hedge funds’: wait until the number of US hedge funds falls too, then private equity firms, then other forms of shadow banking predicated on financialisation, not national-security physical production.

“I am become Death, the destroyer of Barbie World,” says the Fed as rates rise and stay high; and the PBOC too, as they cut them.

Of course, there is a vast indeterminacy about such global-strategy, theoretical, long-term forecasts, and there is a near-term to focus on. Maybe we get a 2008-style downturn ahead if EM explosions spread to the West, and all bets are off; or maybe markets wobble ahead but the real economy doesn’t, and the Fed cut rates too deeply too soon and then has to backpedal; or maybe ‘Brazilification’ is too far gone to be reversed, and it’s stagflation ahead. (Bill Gross certainly seems to dislike US stocks and bonds right now, and thinks the former should be lower, and the latter at 4.50% for 10 year Treasuries.)

Most importantly, let’s try to be realistic while staying theoretical: it would be fantastic if we could get those in Barbie World to play with facts, not toys, and focus on the next 20, 30, or 40 days, let alone weeks or years. But it’s unlikely to happen.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0914 UP 0.0006

USA/ YEN 145.66 UP 0.264 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2703 UP 0.0016

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3474 UP .0016 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 16 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.09%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 192.44 PTS OR 1.03%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.34 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 192.44 PTS OR 1.03%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.31%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 178.98 PTS OR 1.03

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1900.30

silver:$22.26

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.04 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.379% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.619% UP 1 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.707 UP 5 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.349 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6725 UP 4 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0928 UP 0.0019 or 19 basis points

USA/Japan: 145.42 DOWN 0.013 OR YEN UP 2 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2733 UP 0.0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0019 OR 19 BASIS pts to 1.3477

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2827

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3129)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.06 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.619…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.186% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.289 UP 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 120.10 POINTS or 1.60%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 138.44 PTS OR 0.87%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 83.46 PTS OR 1.14%

Spain IBEX DOWN 87.80 PTS OR 0.93%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 160.25 PTS OR 0.57%

WTI Oil price 80.82 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.74 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.58; ROUBLE UP 1 AND 07//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6725 UP 4 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6300 UP 2 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0904 DOWN 0.0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2705 UP .0020 or 20 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6510 % UP 5 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .622%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.64 UP 0.207 //YEN DOWN 21 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3491 UP .0033 CDN dollar,DOWN 33 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 80.79

Brent OIL: 84.88

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.221%

USA 30 yr bond yield up 5 BASIS PTS to 4.327%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.946%

USA dollar index: 103.09 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.06 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.09 UP 0 AND 57/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 361.30 PTS OR 1.02%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 167.74 PTS OR1.10%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.43 UP 1.61 PTS (10.86)%

GLD: $176.59 DOWN 0.47 OR 0.27%

SLV/ $20.67 DOWN ,05 OR 0.24%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Banks, Big-Tech, Bitcoin & Black Gold Breakdown As Beijing Barfs, Builders’ Belief Busts

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 04:00 PM

In a surprise overnight, China cut rates to pre-emptively distract from the pig-ugly China macro data (everything missed). That weakness trumped a surge in Japanese GDP (which itself hid problems with domestic spending) and then US retail sales beat, while homebuilder sentiment disappointed. In other words, decoupling…

Source: Bloomberg

But in the US, strength in the Retail Sales Control Group lifted GDPNOW – The Atlanta Fed’s best-guess at this quarter’s GDP growth – soaring above 5% today (after China’s shitshow of macro data overnight, but Japan’s renaissance)…

Source: Bloomberg

Doesn’t exactly reinforce the case for a Fed pause – in fact this kind of growth bolsters the case for hawkish-for-longer monetary policy, which would weigh on equities and bonds. Rate-hike expectations are nudging hawkishly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The expectation for rate-cuts next year is also shifting hawkishly…

Source: Bloomberg

However, homebuilder confidence took a kicking today (first drop this year) as reality set in that mortgage rates aren’t going down anytime soon…

Source: Bloomberg

…and after a squeezey day yesterday, the market’s negative gamma re-awakened and the US majors were all clubbed like a baby seal with some notable weakness in the last hour…

Some are suggesting the late day weakness was impacted by the fact that Fidelity clients were offline…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1691526924902846464&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbanks-big-tech-bitcoin-black-gold-breakdown-beijing-barfs-builders-belief-busts&sessionId=a57cfcef8eb57a8aed830dfaaa6af4009500afa1&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

S&P bounced off its 50DMA early on but was unable to hold it. Small Caps and Nasdaq also closed back below their 50DMA…

All the S&P sectors were red led by Energy and Financials but big-tech tumbled late on…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were battered on more chatter of ratings downgrades (this time from Fitch)

Homebuilders refuse let the dream go – even as the floor disappears below their reality…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were mixed today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -2bps, 30Y +3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin saw yet another puke…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied once again, holding gains at its highest close since June…

Source: Bloomberg

China’s offshore yuan weakened to Nov lows against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold fell for the 9th day of the last 10, testing down to its 200DMA…

We do note that gold found support at its 200DMA…

Oil prices slipped once again, not helped by China’s data throwing doubt on demand…

Finally, there’s no way it can happen again, right?

Could Jackson-Hole be the catalyst?

b) THIS MORNING TRADING//

end

II) USA DATA/

New York mfg index screams of stagflation as new orders plunge. Not good

(zerohedge)

Empire State Survey Screams Stagflation: New Orders Plunge, Prices Paid Surge

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 08:58 AM

Business activity declined in New York State in August, according to firms responding to the August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The headline general business conditions index fell twenty points to -19.0 (well below the -1.1 expected)

Perhaps most troubling is the fact that new orders and shipments fell significantly…

…while both the input and selling price indexes moved up several points…

So after a few weeks of blind optimism in soft data, it appears reality is biting back.

end

Retail sales soar in July

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Soared In July As Non-Store Retailers Spending Spiked

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 08:41 AM

“Prepare for a big beat” was the message from BofA’s sage-like forecasters for this morning’s retail sales print….

And sure enough they were right as July retail sales rose 0.7% MoM (beating the 0.4% jump expected) -the best monthly jump since Jan

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, everything was green except

Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers: -0.3%
Furniture and home furnishings -1.8%
Electronics and appliance stores -1.3%

Non-store retailers soared – with some suggesting this was Amazon’s Prime Day…

On a YoY basis, headline and core retail sales accelerated…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the control group – which is used in the GDP calculation – soared 1.0% MoM (more than double the expected 0.4% MoM rise).

Source: Bloomberg

One last thing, all of this data is completely divergent from the collapse in retail sales seen by Redbook data…

Source: Bloomberg

We wonder who’s right…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that all of these numbers are nominal.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

As we have witnessed. some parts of America are on the verge of being ungovernable//rampant lawlessness is spreading

(Michael Snyder)

Some Parts Of America Are Already On The Verge Of Being Ungovernable As Rampant Lawlessness Spreads Like Wildfire

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

In order for a civilized society to function, most people have to willingly follow the rules of that society. If that happens, law enforcement authorities can deal with the few that choose to be lawless.

For generations, that is how things worked in America.

There was a high standard of morality among the general population, and so the police were able to successfully handle the few bad apples that insisted on breaking the law.

But now everything has changed. As a result of decades of extreme moral decay, lawlessness is rampant and there are vast multitudes of young people that openly flaunt the rules of our society. In fact, there are already some areas of the country that are literally on the verge of being ungovernable.

A perfect example of what I am talking about happened in southern California on Saturday.

Dozens of lawless young thieves systematically looted the Nordstrom store at the Westfield Topanga mall, and they were able to get away with tens of thousands of dollars worth of merchandise…

Shoppers at the Westfield Topanga mall in Canoga Park were in for quite a shock when dozens of thieves ransacked the Nordstrom inside the mall on Saturday, Aug. 12, smashing displays and stealing an estimated $60,000- $100,000 worth of merchandise, authorities said.

The Los Angeles Police Department responded to the mall at around 4 p.m. after hearing reports that between 20 and 50 people ran through the Nordstrom grabbing merchandise, leaving some on the ground and taking armfuls with them.

When I was growing up, this sort of thing simply did not happen.

But now we are seeing mobs of looters go haywire all over the nation on a regular basis.

This heist was obviously well coordinated, and not one of the thieves even showed a shred of remorse.

Apparently these young people are not exactly languishing in poverty, because a BMW and a Lexus were among the getaway vehicles that they used…

After grabbing between $60,000 and $100,000 worth of goods, the crew fled in several cars including a BMW and a Lexus, cops said.

At least one guard was doused with bear spray — which causes violent eye and respiratory irritation in humans. The guard was treated by paramedics.

How are we supposed to respond to this?

As I stated earlier, we are seeing robberies of this nature so often now.

Several days earlier, dozens of young people looted the Yves Saint Laurent store in Glendale…

Earlier this week a high-end designer store in Glendale, California was looted by dozens of people in another flash mob burglary on Tuesday.

At least 30 suspects “flooded” the Yves Saint Laurent store in The Americana at Brand Tuesday afternoon and stole clothing and other merchandise before fleeing on foot and leaving the location in numerous vehicles, said police in a statement.

The total loss is estimated to be approximately $300,000.

Some people attempt to downplay the severity of these crimes by saying that these big corporate retailers can afford the losses they are experiencing.

No, they can’t.

Overall, U.S. retailers will lose more than 100 billion dollars due to theft this year alone.

This has become a major national crisis, and as J. Lee Grady has aptly pointed out, we truly have become “the land of the free-for-all”…

You’ve probably seen the videos of thieves filling trash bags with stolen merchandise from CVS or walking out of Home Depot or Wal-Mart with armloads of tools, laptops, detergent and athletic shoes they didn’t pay for. We used to call this shoplifting, and it was a crime. Today, it’s known as “inventory shrinkage”—and it costs retailers billions of dollars in losses. But many soft-on-crime politicians are treating criminals like victims and allowing the crime wave to grow.

Some retailers are locking items behind glass cases, but that hasn’t stopped brazen criminals who just smash and grab. Other retailers actually warn employees not to try to stop thieves—and they will even fire an employee for confronting a shoplifter. Welcome to the USA in 2023: We were once known as the land of the free; now we are the land of the free-for-all, where criminals can take whatever they want from store shelves knowing that no one will stop them.

A lot of of this theft is being fueled by the worst drug crisis in the entire history of our nation.

Today, vast stretches of the city of Los Angeles have been transformed into giant homeless encampments that are filled with “zombie-like residents smoking drugs”…

Shocking new photos lay bear the devastating homeless crisis tormenting downtown LA – where filthy ramshackle tent cities are plagued by zombie-like residents smoking drugs, while others hawk stolen goods on street corners.

There are currently an estimated 42,260 people sleeping rough in the City of Angels – a startling 10 percent rise compared to just last year, Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority reported.

Just this week, it emerged that the city had resorted to sending mobile teams with oxygen cylinders to Skid Row in a desperate bid to prevent overdoses amid its crippling opioid crisis.

The same thing is happening in San Francisco.

In fact, conditions have become so dangerous in downtown San Francisco that federal employees that work at “the Nancy Pelosi Federal Building” are being told to work from home for the foreseeable future…

Officials at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services advised hundreds of employees in San Francisco to work remotely for the foreseeable future due to public safety concerns outside the Nancy Pelosi Federal Building on Seventh Street.

The imposing, 18-story tower on the corner of Seventh and Mission streets houses various federal agencies, including HHS, the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Department of Transportation and the office of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. The area is also home to one of the city’s most brazen open-air drug markets, where dozens of dealers and users congregate on a daily basis.

I find it perfectly fitting that “one of the city’s most brazen open-air drug markets” is operating right outside of a giant office tower named for Nancy Pelosi.

Politicians such as Pelosi have been making horrendously bad decisions for decades, and that has been a major factor in getting us to this point.

We are truly reaping what we have sown, and what we are currently experiencing is just the beginning.

Eventually, conditions will deteriorate so dramatically in our core urban areas that our leaders will be forced to implement extreme measures in a desperate attempt to restore order.

But ultimately you can’t govern vast numbers of people that have no intention of being governed.

The fabric of our society really is coming apart at the seams, and we are going to see things happen in the years ahead that will completely shock all of us.

end

A must read. These guys are close to going bust!

Could WeWork’s Potential Bankruptcy Be A Ticking Timebomb For CRE Markets?

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 03:40 PM

If WeWork stumbles into bankruptcy, it will lead to restructuring and the continuation of operations. However, there would be mounting risks the co-working start-up could be entirely wound down. If that’s the case, commercial real estate markets across major cities will suffer even more pain.

Earlier this month, WeWork stated in a 10-Q filing that “substantial doubt exists about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.” Since WeWork continues to hemorrhage cash and liquidity is running thin, the money-losing business is on its last leg.

WeWork has shuttered locations in the past, and in those cases, it relocated members to other buildings and or towers that it leases. However, in the event of bankruptcy and operations were ceased, it would mean 16.8 million square feet of office space it occupies nationwide could hit markets.

Victor Rodriguez, CoStar’s senior director of analytics, told Bloomberg that even though WeWork’s total exposure of the office market is “just a slice,” it could still cause turmoil for the already troubled sector.

“Its collapse will further muddle an already uncertain recovery timeline for the US office sector,” Rodriguez said.

Analysts at Barclays wrote in a recent note that lender exposure to WeWork is sizeable, upwards of $7.5 billion of commercial-mortgage-backed securities, with about 38% concentrated in NYC.

“Given the current weak fundamentals of the office market in New York, we believe these locations might be at particular risk of closure due to overconcentration,” Barclays analysts Lea Overby and Anuj Jain wrote.

Since WeWork doesn’t own any offices. It pays landlords, and if the company can’t renegotiate leases or flat-out cancels, it would inflict pain on building owners.

The ripple effect of a WeWork bankruptcy leaves 16.8 million square feet of office space at risk. We suspect building owners with heavy exposure to WeWork aren’t entirely pleased about its tenant being on the verge of bankruptcy.

WeWork might be a ticking timebomb for office markets.

A West Coast collapse as once America’s most affluent regions are dying under Democrat control:

(zerohedge)

West Coast Collapse: America’s Most Affluent Regions Are Dying Under Democrat Control

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 06:40 PM

The recent implosion of Silicon Valley Bank out of Santa Clara, California was highly symbolic of the greater decline in progress on the west coast of the US. The bank, which also had branch offices in the east, primarily operated out of the far-left corridor of LA, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. SVB was a key hub in California for the proliferation of ESG investment and was deeply involved in ESG and DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) related policies. The bank was intended as a model for “woke-capitalism.”

The corporate world is quietly and quickly attempting to remove ESG terminology from their public websites and reports now that the money is drying up, and the media has tried to deny that ESG had anything to do with the bank crisis in the spring. However, SVB’s own internal reports outline quite clearly their ESG goals and projects.

The point? Get woke, go broke.

The way SVB was governed was similar to how California, Oregon and Washington State are governed now – Chasing far-left ideology and dreams of progressive Utopia to the detriment of everything else, including the economy and the security of the citizenry.

It’s important to mention that things were not always this way. Pundits are quick to point out that states like California were wealthy and successful under Democrat leadership decades ago. But what these people don’t want to talk about is the fact that the Democrat politicians of the past 5-10 years are not the same as the Democrats of previous eras.

ESG was not a core mission for Democrats 20 years ago. DEI was not a core mission for them 20 years ago. And, management of west coast policies was far more balanced in years past with more conservative involvement. One could make the argument that the Dems of today are the inevitable end result of any progressive party, and that full-blown collectivism was always the end game. The point remains that woke Democrats are not your grandfather’s Democrats. They are a different breed; a different species with a far more obsessive and aggressive manifesto.

The results? Almost every major city on the coast has been witnessing a population exodus for at least the past three years. Setting aside obscuring factors such as the birth/death ratio as well as illegal immigration, LA County saw over 300,000 citizens leave since 2020. The Bay Area lost 250,000 people. Portland, Oregon is now one of the fastest shrinking cities in America, losing 3% of its population in only two years. Seattle is the only city that is not seeing a migration (at least not yet).

Why is this happening, beyond the nearly three years of pointless pandemic lockdowns and covid mandates? Leftist policies leading to social instability and higher crime are a good place to start (note that most west coast cities still don’t provide full reports on crime data to the FBI, and will not until 2025).

California specifically is adhering to Prop 47, which makes all theft under $950 a misdemeanor instead of a felony, and misdemeanors are rarely pursued with any vigor by police departments. Meaning, theft under $950 is essentially welcomed by Democrats. With rising property crime often comes rising violent crime. Perpetrators think that if they can get away with theft, maybe they can also get away with assault, or even murder. Similar woke laws and attempts to “defund” police have created an atmosphere of belligerence – Criminals are emboldened by Democrat politicians.

LA had an 11% spike in crime in 2022. San Francisco has had a nearly 8% increase in violent crime in the past three years, a 20% increase in property crime and 17% increase in homicides. Portland had a 35% increase in burglaries from 2019-2022, and they hit an all time record number of homicides in 2022. Property crime and violent crime hit a 15-year high in Seattle in 2022, with verified criminal shootings rising 125% since 2019. The true numbers will likely be revised much higher when full data is released to the FBI in 2025.

San Francisco in particular has provided a steady supply of violent crime videos on social media. Residents are afraid to leave their homes in many neighborhoods, knowing that the city has no intention of helping solve the problem or cracking down on felons.

Then there’s the exploding costs and rising poverty. West coast cities dominate the top of the list of the most expensive places to live in the US. High taxes, rampant inflation and stagnant wages are all contributors. There is a good reason people are leaving these states in droves.

The west coast is not alone in the overall decay that America is experiencing, it is just the most advanced and should be treated as a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the country. Regions managed under far-left leadership are all facing imminent destabilization and this fact needs to be addressed on the national stage. Is the fall of the west coast (and parts of the east coast) a precursor to the fall of the US? If so, the most logical solution would be to take power away from the leftists causing the rot.

end

NEW YORK

New York has had enough of the migrants as Adams says: “Go away”

(Mish Shedlock.Mishtalk)

New York’s ‘Right To Shelter’ Law Now Has Mayor Adams Saying “Go Away”

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 09:10 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

After having rolled out the welcome mat, New York City Mayor Eric Adams now tells illegal immigrants to look elsewhere.

A Right to Shelter

The Wall Street Journal explains Why New Y ork Is a Magnet for Migrants

More than 81,000 migrants have come to New York from the southern border since last spring. On May 13, Mayor Eric Adams deemed the Roosevelt an arrival center for migrants. Most of its occupants are families, but it functions mainly as an intake center for new arrivals. It delivers a “range of legal, medical, and reconnection services, as well as placement, if needed, in a shelter or humanitarian relief center,” according to a city press release.

The city has at least 176 emergency shelters in such places as school gyms and churches, and the number keeps growing.

“Because Chicago, Philadelphia, etc. don’t have a right to shelter—anything like New York’s—New York has the much larger migrant crisis,” says Stephen Eide, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

On May 23 Mr. Adams petitioned a state judge to modify the city’s right-to-shelter obligations under the 1981 consent decree in Callahan v. Carey. He specifically asked for language that would ease the city’s obligations if it “lacks the resources and capacity to establish and maintain sufficient shelter sites, staffing, and security to provide safe and appropriate shelter.” Mr. Adams later said in a statement: “It is in the best interest of everyone, including those seeking to come to the United States, to be upfront that New York City cannot single-handedly provide care to everyone crossing our border.”

Self-Imposed Sanctuary City Crisis

Also consider Eric Adams and the Se l f-Imposed Crisis of a Sanctuary City

Mayor Eric Adams last week groused that local hotels and shelters are overrun with migrants whose care will cost the city about $5 billion this fiscal year. As New York politicians do, he’s begging the feds and ordinary city-dwellers to open their wallets. “This is not Mayor Adams’s job. This is the job of the people of the city of New York,” he said last week. “We need every New Yorker that has something to offer to play a role.”

Apparently, paying the nation’s highest taxes isn’t enough. Mr. Adams recently floated the idea of sheltering migrants in private homes. How rich considering that city regulations set to take effect next month will effectively prohibit New Yorkers from renting out their apartments on Airbnb. The home-sharing site estimates the new “de facto ban” will eliminate 95% of its revenue in the city.

Naturally, the result will be higher demand and prices for rooms at hotels, including those where the city is paying $256 a night on average to shelter migrant families. Some hotels, like a Holiday Inn Express in Brooklyn, are making upward of $300 a night housing migrants. This doesn’t include the cost of food, medical care and social services, which adds another $127 a day per migrant family.

Meantime, to prevent evictions from soaring rents, the City Council last month voted to expand housing vouchers, which will cost as much as $36 billion over five years. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli last week warned the city could face a $40 billion budget shortfall over the next three years—most of which doesn’t stem from costs of caring for migrants.

What Mr. Adams wants is for Americans in the rest of the country to help underwrite the city’s progressive folly. Sorry, not our job.

Go Elsewhere

The BBC reports Adams now is handing out flyers at the Mexican border telling illegal immigrants ‘We Have No Mo re Room‘.

New York City plans to distribute fliers at the southern border warning migrants there is “no guarantee” they will receive help if they come there.

Mayor Eric Adams announced the plan on Wednesday, arguing the city could not handle any more migrants as it has taken in 90,000 since April last year.

“We have no more room,” said the leader of America’s biggest city.

Republican-led states have been transporting migrants to Democratic-run areas in protest at border policies.

As a part of the plan, Mr Adams, a Democrat, also announced that single adult migrants will only be able to stay in the city’s shelters for 60 days and will need to reapply for a space after that.

Critics of Mr Adams’ new plan argue it violates the city’s right-to-shelter rules, which guarantee temporary housing for those in need. Mr Adams has attempted to weaken those rules amid the influx of migrants.

Mayor Adams’ Flyer

The fl y er is in Spanish and English.

No Guarantees?!

“There is no guarantee we will be able to provide shelter and services to new arrivals.“

Say what?

What happened to the right to shelter?

Lesson of the Day

When you give people rights that don’t exist, expect problems, and lots of them.

For starters, the city faces a $40 billion budget shortfall.

Not to worry, Adams has a plan “This is not Mayor Adams’s job. This is the job of the people of the city of New York,” said Adams.

If you live in New York City, I advise having a plan to get the hell out as soon as you can. This applies to California and Illinois too.

Big Tech Should Pay Its “Fair Share”, the Best Way is to Leave California

Regarding California, please see Big Tech S h ould P ay Its “Fair Share”, the Best Way is to Leave California

Regarding Illinois, we escaped just over three year ago.

Escape Illinois

On July 10, 2020 I noted It Takes 3 Wee ks to Escape Illinois

“Everyone is leaving. No one is coming,” a U-Haul agent told us a few weeks ago.

Illinoisans Leave State in Record Numbers, and So Are We

On January 2, 2020 I announced Illinoisans Leave State in Record Numbers, and So Are We

I am pleased to report we loaded our U-Haul rental yesterday and I am on the road driving to our new home in Utah.

Right now we are just a few hours into the trip, but we have crossed the state line and are now in Iowa.

It took three weeks to leave Illinois because one-way out U-Hauls were booked up that much in advance.

* * *

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

BALTIMORE/EDUCATION SYSTEM

The sorry state of the education system inside Baltimore Maryland

(zerohedge0

Maryland Superintendent’s Deleted Texts and Hidden Email Surfaces Amid Intensifying Grade-Rigging Scandal

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 11:20 PM

We’ve closely followed the investigative journalism of Chris Papst from Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore, who has uncovered what could be one of the largest education scandals in the country involving Baltimore City Schools. Papst’s latest report asks: What is the Maryland State Department of Education hiding?

For some context, Papst and his team of reporters have dedicated six years to investigating the Baltimore City School system, the fourth most funded in the nation. Their findings are shocking:

Baltimore City has been riddled with scandals, and one of the most concerning ones has been the school system with a $1.6 billion budget. It appears some education officials are compromising the future of America’s next leaders by rigging grades. And the corruption might not stop at Baltimore but could extend to the leadership of the Maryland State Department of Education.

Papst spoke with attorney Scott Marder who believes that the Maryland State Department of Education under Superintendent Mohammed Choudhury may have violated the Maryland Public Information Act.

Papst’s team found metadata for 98 text messages sent or received by Superintendent Choudhury in the first quarter of this year. The metadata was obtained through a public records request.

When the texts were sent, Papst’s exposé on 23 schools in Baltimore City with zero students proficient in math was published. Then the state decided to change how it reports test scores. Papst believes these text messages hold the answer to why the state government made that decision.

… but it appears the public will never know because those text messages were deleted.

In an email last week, the Maryland State Department of Education told Project Baltimore:

“The metadata of text messages provided is all that our Office of Information Technology could retrieve due to storage limitations.”

Put simply, the 98 text messages were deleted.

“The cell phone issued to Mohammed Choudhury by Maryland State Department of Education is a government cell phone that’s supposed to be used for government business,” Marder told Project Baltimore.

He said, “I’m troubled by the fact that the Maryland State Department of Education says that they had to delete (the texts) because of storage issues. I find that troubling.”

Project Baltimore pointed out that if the Maryland State Department of Education “willfully” violated Maryland Public Information Act, then that could mean the school officials might face upwards of 3 years, a fine up to $1,000, or both. The law clearly states a person cannot: “destroy, remove, or conceal a public record” and “the term’ public record’ would also include, for instance, text messages and other electronic communications.”

In a separate report, Papst’s team wrote, “Hidden email address for Maryland Superintendent revealed after Department of Education removes redactions.” His team asked:

What is the Maryland State Department of Education hiding?

Here’s more on the reporting…

And another report from Project Baltimore stated last week:

A bombshell report just released by the office of the Maryland Inspector General for Education found that failures in Baltimore City Schools internal investigation into Augusta Fells, a high school in west Baltimore, hindered the chance of prosecuting those responsible.

The IG finding City Schools Staff Investigations Unit lacks a written policy regarding self-incrimination, which potentially places employees at risk during internal investigations. This lack of a written policy, which is known as a Garrity Warning and is similar to Miranda Rights, according to the IG’s report, raised major concerns among local, state, and federal prosecutors. As a result, those prosecutors declined to consider criminal charges.

Project Baltimore, in 2021, exposed a major scheme to change grades and inflate enrollment at the West Baltimore high school. Fox45 News obtained a list of 21 students who were enrolled at Augusta Fells but were not actually attending. Ghost students, as they are known by educators, are used to pad the rolls and increase the amount of funding a school receives.

Dominos are quickly falling in the nation’s fourth most funded education system that now could involve a top Maryland education official. None of this should be shocking for a state run by out-of-control Democrats.

end

FITCH/BIG USA BANKS

Fitch warns big banks are facing downgrades!

(zerohedge)

Fitch Warns Big Banks Face Downgrades

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 09:30 AM

At the start of August, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government’s top credit rating. Last week, Moody’s cut the credit ratings of small and midsized US banks because of higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses, and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans. Now, another week, another possible downgrade, this time of major banks.

Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe told CNBC another round of turmoil could be nearing for the banking industry. He said the ratings agency is mulling over sweeping rating downgrades for dozens of banks, including ones as big as JPMorgan Chase.

“Another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 US banks it covers,” Wolfe told CNBC at the firm’s New York headquarters.

He continued, “If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions.”

Wolfe said lowering of the operating environment score for US banks to ‘aa-‘from ‘aa,’ reflecting downward pressure on the US sovereign rating, gaps in the regulatory framework and structural uncertainty around the normalization of monetary policy, went “largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.”

This comes one week after a triple whammy of factors of regional banks: Higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses, and rising risks tied to CRE loans prompted Moody’s to lower credit ratings for ten small and midsize US banks; and noted in a slew of notes that it may downgrade major banks.

“Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all banks equally,” the ratings agency wrote in some of the assessments.

Perhaps Fitch is sending out trial balloons for Wall Street to inform them that the potential for another round of bank downgrades is a real risk for the market.

More from CNBC on the conversation with Wolfe:

The problem created by another downgrade to A+ is that the industry’s score would then be lower than some of its top-rated lenders. The country’s two largest banks by assets, JPMorgan and Bank of America , would likely be cut to A+ from AA- in this scenario, since banks can’t be rated higher than the environment in which they operate.

And if top institutions like JPMorgan are cut, then Fitch would be forced to at least consider downgrades on all their peers’ ratings, according to Wolfe. That could potentially push some weaker lenders closer to non-investment grade status.

The timing of the next round of bank downgrades wasn’t disclosed but serves as a warning for more banking turmoil as the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates to 22-year highs.

“What we don’t know is, where does the Fed stop? Because that is going to be a very important input into what it means for the banking system,” he said.

Rates on swap contracts referencing future Fed policy meetings suggest the rate hikes might be peaking with the potential for cuts to begin in the second half of 2024.

The interview continued:

A related issue is if the industry’s loan defaults rise beyond what Fitch considers a historically normal level of losses, said Wolfe. Defaults tend to rise in a rate-hiking environment, and Fitch has expressed concern on the impact of office loan defaults on smaller banks.

“That shouldn’t be shocking or alarming,” he said. “But if we’re exceeding [normalized losses], that’s what maybe tips us over.”

Meanwhile, days ago, we quoted a note from Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, who said, “We are skeptical that the turmoil in the regional banking sector which came to the fore in March is behind us.”

… and this all comes after Fitch downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ earlier this month. Of course, the Biden administration blamed Trump.

Shares of big banks are already sliding premarket on the CNBC report.

Clearly banking turmoil is not over.

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

SWAMP STORIES

What an absolute circus!

9 PM EST/MONDAY

(zerohedge)

Georgia Grand Jury Delivers Indictment Hours After Court Claims Trump RICO Document “Fictitious”

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Update (2033ET): A grand jury in Atlanta handed in an indictment late Monday related to a Georgia prosecutor’s investigation into former President Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results.

The details were not immediately clear, but we know what’s coming.

The full indictment is expected to be released later this evening.

Emily khors is the forewoman of the Trump grand jury and she’s an absolute lunatic. She must think she’s the lead role in her head. pic.twitter.com/67DDzPmN83— Stephan (@itoldyaso88) February 22, 2023

Never forget – President Trump was leading Biden by 160,000+ votes on election night

Then a “water pipe burst” forcing GOP poll watchers out of the Atlanta counting center while Democrat criminals pulled out suitcases of ballots & ran them through the machines for hours… pic.twitter.com/f3PUuEiU1f— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) August 15, 2023

Another day, another indictment.

No amount of indictments will explain how 80%+ of bellwether counties voted for Trump yet Biden won (something that has never happened before).

No amount of indictments will explain how a presidential candidate could have such a strong lead and… pic.twitter.com/EU5dq48hZQ— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 15, 2023

* * *

Update (1830ET): Attorneys for Donald Trump on Monday criticized the Georgia Fulton County District Attorney’s Office over a report that a document listing criminal charges against the former president was briefly posted earlier in the day, then abruptly taken down.

“The Fulton County District Attorney’s Office has once again shown that they have no respect for the integrity of the grand jury process,” attorneys Drew Findling and Jennifer Little said in a statement issued by the Trump campaign.

“This was not a simple administrative mistake,” the attorneys added.

“A proposed indictment should only be in the hands of the District Attorney’s Office, yet it somehow made its way to the clerk’s office and was assigned a case number and a judge before the grand jury even deliberated. This is emblematic of the pervasive and glaring constitutional violations which have plagued this case from its very inception.”

* * *

Update (1820ET): Fulton County’s Office of the Court Clerk has issued a statement claiming that the RICO docket against former President Trump which was posted to their portal and subsequently deleted – and which was tweeted and reported on first by Reuters (along with a link to the Court’s portal), was “fictitious.”

#BREAKING: The Fulton County, GA Clerk of Courts has released a statement claiming the document outlining the charges against President Trump that was posted on their website—and subsequently DELETED after it was reported on by Reuters—is a FAKE.

WHAT IS GOING ON HERE? pic.twitter.com/jRErmhUjKX— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) August 14, 2023

The statement reads:

Special Purpose Grand Jury Update The Office of the Fulton County Clerk of Superior and Magistrate Courts has learned of a fictitious document that has been circulated online and reported by various media outlets related to The Fulton County Special Purpose Grand Jury.

While there have been no documents filed today regarding such, all members of the media should be reminded that documents that do not bear an official case number, filing date, and the name of The Clerk of Courts, in concert, are not considered official filings and should not be treated as such.

Media members can expect to be notified of any/all filings in real time and will be provided access to filings via equitable communication.

As the official custodian of various county records, the Clerk of Courts understands the sensitivity of all court filings, especially those that arc at the forefront of the national spotlight and remains committed to operating with an extreme level of efficiency, accuracy, and transparency.

Hmm:

Looks like case number and date to me. Hmmm pic.twitter.com/JNXcVAzPjo— Jackie (@Jackie9900) August 14, 2023

In an earlier statement, the court said: “The Reuters report that those charges were filed is inaccurate. Beyond that we cannot comment,” said a spokesperson for the District Attorney’s office, which stated that no charges had been filed against Trump.

I hate it when fictitious legal documents get posted to my government website.— Jeremiah (@jeremiahbnewell) August 14, 2023

* * *

Former President Donald Trump is apparently going to be indicted under the RICO (Racketeer Influenced And Corrupt Organizations Act) statute, according to a document which was briefly posted on the Fulton County, Georgia court’s website.

The document, dated Aug. 14 and titled “Trump” cites the case as “open.”

It was quickly taken down:

As Bloomberg noted earlier, the Fulton County case will likely echo allegations in the indictment of Trump in Washington, brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Trump is accused in that case of trying to overturn the 2020 election nationwide, and his actions in Georgia feature prominently in the alleged conspiracy.

Sounds legit— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) August 14, 2023

District Attorney Fani Willis, a Democrat who took office days before the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, had extensive details on Trump’s actions in Georgia when she opened her probe in February 2021. Those details included Trump’s effort to pressure Raffensperger, asking him and others to “find” just enough votes to overcome his loss, even though a recount had already been conducted.

Willis has a history of prosecuting cases – from teachers to rap music stars – under Georgia’s version of the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization act, or RICO – a statute often associated with organized crime. She may use the law against Trump and allies as well.

Meanwhile, the streets around the Fulton County courthouse in Atlanta were lined with orange barricades in anticipation of potential civil unrest over the indictment. Armed sheriff’s deputies are also patrolling the area 24/7, while vehicles from several law enforcement agencies lined the streets.

Security measures extended blocks away to the Georgia State Capitol, where the street nearest the entrance was sealed off. The gold-domed building was devoid of tourists and many staffers were working from home amid renovations. At nearby City Hall, no one was seen entering or leaving the building in the middle of a workday, though the office of Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens said city’s headquarters is “open for business.”

One sheriff’s deputy standing guard said he’d never seen such an extensive security operation in 30 years on the job. The officer said one priority will be protecting protesters who may clash with each other if Trump appears in court. –Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, DA Fani Willis is expected to present the case to a grand jury as soon as the coming week.

Trump is accused of trying to goad Georgia officials into ‘finding’ votes for him (when, in context, Trump was implying they were hiding votes). Trump has denied wrongdoing.

Reminder:

This was the foreperson of the Grand Jury that investigated Donald Trump in Georgia: pic.twitter.com/UEZCTKKVaK— ALX (@alx) February 22, 2023

end

WHAT AN ABSOLUTE JOKE

3.AM TUESDAY

Trump, Giuliani, Powell, Meadows & 15 Others Indicted On 13 Counts By Atlanta Grand Jury

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Summary

It’s been quite a day in Atlanta (and for scrambling Democrats) as former President Trump was indicted for the 4th time.

The events (detailed below) are summarized here in chronological order:

Before the Grand Jury’s verdict, Reuters reported that a document was leaked earlier in the day on the Fulton County, Georgia court’s website showing former president Trump being indicted on RICO charges (among many others).

The Georgia DA released a statement calling the document “fictitious”.
Trump’s team (and the entire internet) mocked this farcical comment: “This was not a simple administrative mistake.”

The Grand Jury then handed down a 98-page indictment, against the former president (the jurors’ names were unredacted)…

…claiming that he – and 18 of his allies – orchestrated a sweeping criminal enterprise, committing more than a dozen felonies, as he tried and failed to overturn his defeat in Georgia’s 2020 election.

Defendants include Rudy Giuliani, Mark Leadows, Sidney Powell, and John Eastman.
The charging documents also list 30 unindicted co-conspirators.

One count in violation of the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act
Three counts of solicitation of violation of oath by public officer
One count of conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer
Two counts of conspiracy to commit forgery in the first degree
Two counts of conspiracy to commit false statements and writings
One count of conspiracy to commit filing false documents
One count of filing a false document
Two counts of false statements and writings

All of these charges were exactly as per the leaked “fictitious” document that was found on the courthouse website hours before the Grand Jury’s decision.

The Trump team issued a statement blasting the Georgia DA as a “rabid partisan”, adding that “all of these corrupt Democrat attempts will fail.”

Statement from the Trump Campaign

Like Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, Deranged Jack Smith, and New York AG Letitia James, Fulton County, GA’s radical Democrat District Attorney Fani Willis is a rabid partisan who is campaigning and fundraising on a platform of prosecuting President Trump through these bogus indictments. Ripping a page from Crooked Joe Biden’s playbook, Willis has strategically stalled her investigation to try and maximally interfere with the 2024 presidential race and damage the dominant Trump campaign. All of these corrupt Democrat attempts will fail.

Combined with the intentionally slow-walked investigations by the Biden-Smith goon squads and the false charges in New York, the timing of this latest coordinated strike by a biased prosecutor in an overwhelmingly Democrat jurisdiction not only betrays the trust of the American people, but also exposes true motivation driving their fabricated accusations.

They could have brought this two and half years ago, yet they chose to do this for election interference reasons in the middle of President Trump’s successful campaign. He is not only leading all Republicans by a lot but he is leading against Joe Biden in almost every poll. President Trump represents the greatest threat to these Democrats’ political futures (and the greatest hope for America).

The legal double-standard set against President Trump must end. Under the Crooked Biden Cartel, there are no rules for Democrats, while Republicans face criminal charges for exercising their First Amendment rights.

These activities by Democrat leaders constitute a grave threat to American democracy and are direct attempts to deprive the American people of their rightful choice to cast their vote for President. Call it election interference or election manipulation—it is a dangerous effort by the ruling class to suppress the choice of the people. It is un-American and wrong.

They are taking away President Trump’s First Amendment right to free speech, and the right to challenge a rigged and stolen election that the Democrats do all the time. The ones who should be prosecuted are the ones who created the corruption.

President Trump will never give up and will never stop fighting for you, as we all work to Make America Great Again in 2024.

end

and then this:

DOJ Says Hunter Biden’s Lawyers Lying About ‘Valid And Binding’ Plea Deal

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 02:28 PM

Update (1425ET): The Justice Department refuted Hunter Biden’s legal team on Tuesday, denying that the First Son’s plea deal and pretrial diversion agreement are in effect.

Contained within a footnote of a Monday filing, Hunter’s legal team claimed that his plea deal and diversion agreement were “largely dictated” by DOJ prosecutors, and that it’s still “valid and binding,” and that the government said in court that the agreement was “in effect,” and stands apart from Hunter’s now-dead plea deal.

The DOJ denies this, writing in a Tuesday filing reported by the Daily Caller: “The Government never said the proposed diversion agreement was in effect because it is not,” according to special counsel David Weiss. “And in none of the portions of the transcript that the Defendant cites in this footnote did the Government say the diversion agreement was in effect. In fact, the Government said the opposite.”

The proposed “sweetheart deal” would have had Hunter Biden plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors and enter a diversion agreement allowing him to avoid jail time for a felony gun charge. Judge Maryellen Noreika rejected the deal during the July 26 hearing after uncovering a provision in the diversion agreement that would grant broad immunity for future charges.

Weiss argued that Hunter Biden’s teams’ understanding of the agreement during the hearing to include broad immunity was “a problem entirely of their own making.” -Daily Caller

“Mr. Clark and his client were both telling the Court that the Defendant was pleading guilty because of promises that were not contained in the plea agreement,” reads the response. “This was a problem entirely of their own making and not one that resulted from the drafting of the proposed plea or diversion agreements.”

Hunter’s lawyers, meanwhile, claim that DOJ prosecutors “dictated the form and content of the Plea and Diversion Agreements,” including the broad immunity provision contained in “paragraph 15.”

* * *

Hunter Biden’s top criminal defense attorney has asked a federal judge for permission to withdraw from the case after a plea deal unraveled in late July.

Christopher Clark, Hunter’s longtime defense attorney, filed a motion with the Delaware judge overseeing Hunter’s case on the grounds that he could now be called as a witness in future proceedings, CNN reports.

“Based on recent developments, it appears that the negotiation and drafting of the plea agreement and diversion agreement will be contested, and Mr. Clark is a percipient witness to those issues,” reads the Tuesday filing.

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Last week federal prosecutors announced that the had reached an impasse on Hunter’s plea deal related to tax offenses and a “diversion agreement” to take care of a gun possession charges.

After the deal unraveled, the feds asked Judge Maryellen Noreika to withdraw a late August deadline to renegotiate the plea deal, after she said she was not ready to accept it & asked both sides to file additional briefs explaining the legal structure of the revised deal.

Noreika also called the deal federal prosecutors reached with Hunter over his gun possession offense “unusual,” and that it contained some “non-standard terms,” such as “broad immunity” from other potential charges.

Under the original plea agreement, Biden intended to plea guilty to two misdemeanor tax crimes committed in 2017 and 2018, and would avoid prison on the gun possession charge.

As part of the conditions for Hunter’s release, he must not consume alcohol or prohibited drugs, or possess a firearm, must submit to random drug tests as required, must actively seek employment and not violate any laws.

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On Sunday, Biden attorney Abbe Lowell blamed prosecutors for drafting the agreements the judge wouldn’t approve.

Biden’s lawyers said Sunday they believed the gun diversion deal was still “valid and binding.” Abbe Lowell, one of the attorneys, placed blame on prosecutors for drafting the agreements the judge took issue with. -CNN

After the plea deal unraveled, US Attorney David Weiss requested and was granted “special counsel” status by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

According to prosecutors, there is still an ongoing investigation which may carry future charges outside the scope of the plea deal.

Biden pleaded guilty to two misdemeanor tax crimes, and will avoid prison charge for possessing a gun while addicted to an illegal drug.

The deal sought to cap a five-year investigation into Hunter’s tax affairs and business dealings, which federal prosecutors say Hunter failed to pay over $100,000 of income tax on at least $1.5 million in income between 2017 and 2018.

end

TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEW ROBERT KENNEDY:

“Death Scientists?”: Tucker And RFK Jr. Talk Ukraine, Biolabs, And Who Killed His Uncle

MONDAY, AUG 14, 2023 – 08:00 PM

RFK Jr. and Tucker Carlson sat down for a lengthy interview published on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, in which the two discuss Ukraine, bio-labs, and who killed his uncle, JFK. Carlson made clear that he wasn’t going to badger Kennedy with questions about his stance on vaccines, which the MSM has made a central focus for obvious reasons.

The interview begins by discussing the Biden administration denying RFK Jr. Secret Service protection

Despite the fact that his uncle and his father were both assassinated, the Biden administration denied SS protection

“We applied for Secret Service protection in May,” said Kennedy, adding “The President has discretion to give Secret Service protection to any candidate, for any reason.”

Kennedy noted that former President Barack Obama was given Secret Service protection more than 500 days before the election, and that his uncle Ted Kennedy received protection more than 450 days before an election.

“I think the DNC is playing hardball,” Kennedy added.

On the topic of Ukraine

(12 minutes in), Kennedy says Americans are being lied to, and were sold on a “comic book pitch, which we see in every war. There’s a bad guy who’s like, you know, unspeakably evil, who’s planning world conquest or a terrorist attack on America. And we have to be the good guys and go in and stop it.“

Kennedy then explained that “a group of people who are known as Neocons, since 2001, have been talking about putting NATO in Ukraine. Now, I’ll give you some background. In 1992 the walls came down and the Soviet Union collapsed. Gorbachev went to Tony Blair and President Bush and said ‘I’m going to withdraw 400,000 Soviet troops from East Germany. I’m going to allow you to reunify Germany under NATO troops – so you’re gonna move NATO troops, a hostile force, into our barracks and our bases – and the only commitment I want from you, is that once I allow Germany to become part of NATO, that you will never move NATO further to the East.'”

“James Baker, who was the Secretary of State at that time, famously said: ‘we promise that we will not move NATO one inch to the East.'”

“Then, in 1996, 1997, five years later, Zbigniew Brzezinski … says ‘ok, we should start moving NATO to all the former (USSR) satellite states.'”

US Biolabs in Ukraine

At around 35 minutes into the interview, Carlson and Kennedy begin discussing the US bioweapons program. Meanwhile back home, RFK Jr. said that there are “36,000 ‘death scientists’ who are now employed full time in developing microbes that can be used to kill people.“

On the topic of who killed his uncle

RFK Jr. alleged that the CIA was involved, and that most of the people at the agency had associations with Cuba.

“The specific people who were involved in it were pretty much all associated with a Miami station, which was the largest CIA station at the time. It was basically, it was the Cuban station,” said Kennedy.

“And the people who were involved in that station were people like Bill Harvey and David Atlee Phillips who was clearly involved in my uncle’s assassination. He was by all evidence, he was Lee Harvey Oswald’s handler at the CIA.”

Kennedy also says that the corporate media has been publishing “outright lies” about him.

“Right now, what it seems to me is that there’s been this alignment, this political alignment that I think really started with Fox News back, you know, when Roger was running things there where he overtly made it a political network. He ended it with the Republican Party and said we’re gonna push their agenda. And up until then, that has been considered a journalistic ethical breach. The networks were supposed to at least pretend neutrality and the newspapers as well,” he said.

“But now I think that business model works so well for Fox and again, I think MSNBC and CNN adopted the same business model and there’s been this big consolidation in the media where really there’s no independent media.“

Watch the entire interview below: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-and-rfk-jr-talk-ukraine-biolabs-and-who-killed-his-uncle

end

Awkward: Rachel Maddow Calls Out ‘Election Deniers’ As Hillary Clinton Offers Blank Stare

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 12:25 PM

Hoax-funding election denier Hillary Clinton sat down with MSNBC‘s Rachel Maddow this week to cackle over the prosecution of Donald Trump.

According to Clinton, who destroyed evidence with bleachbit and hammers, ran an illegal server out of her house containing highly classified documents, and was given a ‘no reasonable prosecutor’ pass by the FBI, Trump’s indictments represent a “terrible moment” for America, and that “The only satisfaction may be that the system is working.”

Things got a little awkward, however, when Maddow launched into a screed over election denial – during which Hillary Clinton sat in silence.

Awkward!

Watch the entire Maddow-Clinton interview below:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/awkward-rachel-maddow-calls-out-election-deniers-hillary-clinton-offers-blank-stare

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 15, 2023 Issue 7054

Independent View of the News

China Finance Giant’s Missed Payments Alarm Regulators, Markets
One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products.
    The turmoil at Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., a secretive financial conglomerate that manages about 1 trillion yuan ($138B), surged to the fore after several of its corporate clients disclosed overdue payments by a trust unit. In a sign that Chinese authorities are worried about potential contagion, the banking regulator has set up a task force to examine risks at Zhongzhi…
    One of the nation’s largest developers, Country Garden Holdings Co., is on the brink of default, while loans extended by Chinese banks fell to the lowest level since 2009 last month in a sign of waning demand from businesses and consumers. Zhongzhi’s trust unit bought stakes in real estate projects last year, betting on a market rebound that has so far failed to materialize…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-shadow-banking-giant-alarms-030635937.html

JPMorgan Sees ‘Vicious Cycle’ as Top China Trust Misses Payment
    About 2.8 trillion yuan trust assets face default risks: JPM
    Banks’ risks may rise as they may be asked to fill funding gap
Missed payments on multiple high-yield investment products by a major Chinese shadow lender may trigger a “vicious cycle” for property developers’ financing and more delinquencies for trust products, JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns.
    Liquidity stress is intensifying for indebted developers and their non-bank creditors after a unit of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., one of China’s largest private wealth managers, failed to deliver on-time payments for multiple products, the US bank’s analysts including Katherine Lei wrote in a report Monday. About 2.8 trillion yuan ($386 B), or 13% of China’s total trust assets, may see rising default risks … https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/jpmorgan-sees-vicious-cycle-as-top-china-trust-misses-payment

China’s Economic Recovery Faces Risks from Property Crisis
China’s economic recovery is being weighed down by a worsening property slump, with the latest data likely to show little sign of a rebound in growth… Official figures due Tuesday are expected to show only moderate increases in industrial output, retail sales and fixed-assets investment in July. The contraction in property investment likely worsened, with fears of a debt crisis at a major developer and a further decline in housing sales holding back a rebound in the sector…
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-economic-recovery-faces-fresh-risks-from-property-crisis

The Yen/$ hit 145.58, a 9-month low and the level at which the BoJ had intervened in the past. This was another negative emanating from Asia on Monday.

ESUs, which traded higher when the Nikkei opened on the usual Sunday night buying, commenced a decline during the Nikkei’s 2^nd Session that persisted until about midnight ET. Then, the usual suspects aggressively bought ESUs and stocks to get long for the Pump & Dump after the European opening.

ESUs and stocks spiked higher at 3:48 ET. The apparent impetus for the short-lived spike rally was a Bank of England report that showed the BoE maintained its regular pace of asset purchases.

The Dump then commenced, ESUs sank until they stabilized after 5 ET. After a modest rally into the US bond market opening at 7 ET, ESUs and stocks then sank until 9:45 ET.   You know what happened next.

Of course, after the early US decline, the usual suspects poured into ESUs, stocks, and options.

Most everyone now realizes that buying early US declines has become an ingrained behavior. Besides the conditioned dip buyers, this dynamic has become fortified by the gazillions of retail traders and day traders that are conditioned to buy options, particularly 0DTE (zero days to expiration) calls.

0DTE call volumes continue to make new all-time highs. Professional traders sell the 0DTE and hedge them with later-expiry options or the underlying stocks. This creates upward pressure on stocks.

ESUs and stocks went almost vertical until 11:00 ET. After a moderate retreat, the rally into the European close began. ESUs and stocks jumped to daily highs at 11:47 ET. ESUs and stocks retreated again; but a bottom appeared at 12:22 ET. A belated Noon Balloon of 19 ESU handles occurred.

The ensuing decline ended at 14:32 ET. It was time for the pre-last hour rally; this is day traders getting long for the expected late upward manipulation. ESUs and stocks rallied and spiked higher at the close.

No doom, no gloom, no darkness of troubling fundamentals will stop conditioned traders from playing the Expiry Week upward manipulation!

Fangs led the rally on Monday, which is a staple of expiry week. These are stocks that are over-owned and are by far the favorite trading sardines of investors and traders of all size and abilities.

USUs hit a low of 120 6/32 at 9:48 ET. They surged to a daily high of 121 9/32 at 12:26 ET. USUs then sank until 15:40 ET, 20 minutes before their close. The US 10-yr is 5.3bps from a 15-year high yield!

The US is facing a debt storm. Here are 5 charts that show trouble is brewing.
A storm of public and private debt is brewing in the US – and the troubles are already beginning to show on the surface as loans pile up and borrower confidence falters…
Private debt levels are rising at a staggering pace…
The public debt picture looks even worse.
Corporate defaults are surging
Late payments are piling up
Banks want to dump risky debt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-facing-debt-storm-heres-201501407.html

Positive aspects of previous session
Once again, US stock rebounded on trader buying after an early decline on negative fundamentals
Fangs (+1.73%) led the rally due as traders of all sizes, shapes, & dimensions bought for the expiry play
The late upward manipulation appeared to the delight of all Expiry Week players
US stocks closed at or near their daily highs
US Steel rallied 36.75% on Esmark’s $35/share cash bid, its largest one-day rally ever

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined. The 10-yr closed at its highest yield since 6/08. (4.244% on 10/24/22 is intraday high)
The US 10-year hit 4.192%. If the 10/24/22 high of 4.244% is breached, it will mark a 15-yr high yield

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will a critical mass of investors create the tipping point for US debt?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4477.83
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4490.33; 4453.44

Inflation bulls and Fed pivot seers have been braying that the CPI will fall sharply in coming months because Rents on a y/y basis are heading lower. And now, the rest of the story!

Rental Market Tracker: Asking Rents Are Inching Closer to Their Record High
The West is the only region seeing a drop in asking rents, which are coming back down to earth after surging a record 19% last year.
   The median U.S. asking rent in July was $2,038, just $16 below the record high set in August 2022. While rents are just shy of their all-time high, rent growth remains sluggish. The median asking rent was up just 0.3% from a year earlier in July, compared with a 13.6% annual gain in July 2022…
    The median asking rent is near its record high because the housing market tends to be “downside sticky,” meaning prices don’t typically fall substantially even when business is slow, Marr added…  https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-july-2023/

Chinese military scientists claim to have achieved a huge breakthrough on laser weapon technology High-energy laser weapons can now operate ‘infinitely’, thanks to a new cooling system that completely eliminates the build-up of waste heat
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3230589/chinese-military-scientists-claim-have-achieved-huge-breakthrough-laser-weapon-technology

Japan Q2 GDP 6.0% & 1.5% q/q; 2.9% & 0.8% exp; the Yen/$ rallied a tad and then fell to 145.53.

Today – For most expiry weeks over the past 12 months or so, US stocks, particularly Fangs, have rallied on Monday through Thursday on traders getting long for the expected Expiry Week upward manipulation. Then, because so many guppy traders get long expiry calls, stocks tend to sag on Thursday and Friday as too many traders try to liquidate before the clock strikes midnight on expiration day.  Traders will buy dips and continue to get long for the Expiry Week manipulation.

ESUs are +4:50 at 20:30 ET; USUs are – 8/32.

Expected Economic data: July Retail Sales 0.4% m/m, ex-Autos 0.4%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.4%; July Import Price Index 0.2% m/m, Exports 0.2%; Aug Empire Mfg. -0.7; Aug NAHB Housing Market Index 56; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari 11:00 ET

Expected Earnings (Mostly retailers): HD 4.45, CAH 1.49, A 1.36, TGT 1.47

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4443; 100-day MA: 4279; 150-day MA: 4190; 200-day MA: 4119
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,547; 100-day MA: 33,943 150-day MA: 33,739; 200-day MA: 33,641
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3752.81 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4372.50 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4553.07 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4500.75 triggers a buy signal

@ggreenwald: What most scared the s#^@ out of the western liberal establishments was Brexit followed by Trump’s election. Trump’s 2016 victory broke every rule about how establishments wield power. That’s when they decided things and people were too free and needed more control.

@SKMorefield: There’s a reason Donald Trump announced his presidential bid so soon. I believe at least part of it was to create the impression that he is being indicted (persecuted) while running for office, when in actuality he chose to run for office knowing full well that he was being indicted. It’s naïve to think his attorneys didn’t know what was coming down the pike.

@CitizenFreePres: KJP (most inept WH Press Sec. in history) mispronounced the name of Hawaii’s Sen. Mazie Hirono and then called her a man. “Senator Hareeno, he thanked the president…”
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1691163840002834432

Workers at SF Federal Building told to work from home due to crime concerns
The Chronicle reported that the Department of Health and Human Services issued a memo last week calling for employees to “maximize the use of telework,” due to conditions around the building.  Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has also reportedly expressed safety concerns about her staff who work there… https://www.ktvu.com/news/report-workers-at-sf-federal-building-told-to-work-from-home-due-to-crime-concerns

Video shows aftermath of California Nordstrom ransacking by huge ‘flash mob’
Los Angeles Police Department vows to prosecute those behind Topanga Mall incident
https://www.foxnews.com/us/video-shows-aftermath-california-nordstrom-ransacking-huge-flash-mob

Liberals turn back on woke LA prosecutor George Gascon as smash and grab robberies soar https://trib.al/7XRVx8u

Chicago group wants gangbangers to refrain from firing guns between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m.
https://cwbchicago.com/2023/08/chicago-group-want-gangbangers-to-refrain-from-firing-guns-between-9-a-m-and-9-p-m.html

This is a typical liberal insulting of one’s intelligence by advocating a futile, useless, and risible action instead of getting tough on crime, and more importantly, the causes of endemic urban crime. Liberals must produce these futile, symbolic acts and pleas because they cannot admit that their policies, instated over many decades, are the cause of urban crime, blight, and hopelessness.

‘Blind Side’ NFL star alleges family never adopted him, made millions off lies
Oher has asked that the court end the conservatorship, order that the Tuohys cease using his name or likeness, make the Tuohys pay him his share of the profits from their story, and award him damages.
    Oher filed his claims on Monday in the probate court of Shelby County, Tennessee, ESPN reported, asserting that Sean and Leigh Anne Tuohy tricked him into making them his conservators, a status they then used to strike deals that resulted in “The Blind Side’s” production and their receipt of millions, none of which went to him… (Are you implying that a Michael Lewis book isn’t accurate?!?!?)
https://justthenews.com/nation/culture/blind-side-nfl-star-alleges-family-never-adopted-him-made-millions-lies

FBI says man killed during Provo raid pointed revolver at agents
“We have no further details to provide at this time.” It’s also unclear whether the agents were wearing body-worn cameras during the raid. According to a July 2022 policy notice, special agents or task force officers must “make reasonable efforts to wear and activate their (body worn cameras) for the purpose of recording their actions during FBI pre-planned arrests and searches.”.. The FBI was tight-lipped in the days following the raid… Witness… [saw]“dozens” of agents wearing fatigues and tactical gear…
https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/14/23832033/fbi-raid-in-provo-updates-craig-robertson-biden

END

GREG HUNTER..

SEE YOU WEDNESDAY