Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM1945.83PM

1949.88

Historical SGE Fix

New York price at the time: 1902.00

premium $43,00

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Bitcoin morning price:, $29,184 DOWN 129 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,093 DOWN 220 dollars

Platinum price closing $893.10 DOWN $13.40

Palladium price; $1236,70 DOWN $29.95

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,560.80 DOWN 7.80 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1487.75 DOWN 10.20 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1740.54 DOWN 4.20 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: AUGUST 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,902.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/15/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 08/17/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL 6
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 13
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
709 C BARCLAYS 4
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 3
905 C ADM 2
991 H CME 11

TOTAL: 24 24

MONTH TO DATE: 10,727

JPMorgan stopped 0 /24 contracts.

FOR AUGUST:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 24 NOTICES FOR 2400 OZ or 0.0746 TONNES

total notices so far: 10,723 contracts for 1,072,300 oz (33.365 tonnes)

FOR AUGUST:

SILVER NOTICES: 9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 45,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 925 for 4,625,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.290 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 97 CONTRACTS TO 138,215 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.06 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A RATHER SMALLER SIZED 650 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 650 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.06). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF ANY SILVER CONTRACTS(IF ANY STILL EXIST) AS WE HAD OUR STRONG GAIN OF 608 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE SESSION.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 200 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING RISES AT 4.625 MILLION OZ + OUR NEW CRIMINAL 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ + 1.45 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR/// NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 6.075 MILLION OZ/// // // FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALLER BUT STILL STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (650 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -311 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 17,477 contracts: OR 87.385 MILLION OZ (1456 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 87.385 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 87.385 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE VERY STRONG

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 97 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.06 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 200 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.625 MILLION OZ+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW TOTALS 6.075 MILLION OZ//// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 297 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALLER BUT STILL STRONG 650 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (650) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 45,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2227 CONTRACTS TO 433,611 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 1199 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2227 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $7.45 LOSS IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1300 OZ QUEUE JUMP + PRIOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = (.684 TONNES) //NEW STANDING 33.545 TONNES + .684 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 34.229/ + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1371 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $7,45 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6096 OI CONTRACTS (18.96 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3869 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 433,611

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6096 CONTRACTS WITH 2227 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD 3869 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6046 CONTRACTS OR 18.96 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD 3869 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3869 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2227) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6096 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3100 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 33.545 TONNES + .684 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR) NEW TOTALS: 34.229 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1371 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 35,502 CONTRACTS OR 3,550,200 OZ OR 110.53 TONNES IN 12TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2958 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 110.53 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 110.53/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 110.53 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH BUT WILL NOT COME CLOSE TO MARCH 2022)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 97 CONTRACTS OI TO 138,215 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 200 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 97 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 297 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.485 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.06 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.05 PTS OR 0.82% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 251.81 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 472.07 PTS OR 1.46% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.44 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2980 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3258 /Oil UP TO 80.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84.91 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2227 CONTRACTS UP TO 433,611 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.45 ON TUESDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3869 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3869 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3869 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6096 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3869 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2227 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.45//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1371 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (34.229) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 34.229 TONNES (INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $7.45) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS (IF ANY STILL EXIST) AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6096 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF YESTERDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 18.96 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1300 OZ QUEUEJUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES A BIT TO 33.545 TONNES + .6842 (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK) //NEW TOTAL 34.229 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $7.45.

WE HAD – REMOVED 1199 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6096 CONTRACTS OR 609,600 OZ OR 18.96 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 113,613 awful

final gold volumes/yesterday 173,675 poor//speculators have left the gold arena

//AUGUST 16/ FOR THE AUGUST 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	385.812 OZ jpm 12 KILOBARS .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	24 notice(s) 2400 OZ 0.0746 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	58 contracts 5800 oz 0.1807 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,727 notices 1,072,700 OZ 33.365 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of JPMorgan: 385.812 oz

total; 385.812 oz

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 82 contracts having LOST 21 contracts. We had 34 contracts filed

on Monday, so we gained 13 contracts or an additional 1300 oz will stand at the comex,

Sept gained 103 contracts to 2862.

Oct lost 287 contracts to 32,865 contracts.

We had 24 contracts filed for today representing 2400 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 24 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,727 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (82 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 24 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,078,500 OZ OR 33.545 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST. + .684 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 34.229 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,727) x 100 oz + (82) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (24) x 100 oz) which equals 1,078,500 oz standing OR 33.545 TONNES + .684 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 34.229 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 34.229 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,101,333.235 OZ 65.36 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,003,399.946 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,680,181.113 (363.30 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,323,218.833 O Z

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,578,848 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 297.942 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

AUGUST 16

//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	606,991.000 oz Brinks CNT Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	582,290.332 oz Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)	9 CONTRACT(S) (45,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	0 contracts (nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	925 Contracts (4,625,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposits customer account:

i)Into Manfra: 582,290.352 oz

total customer deposits: 582,290,352 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.276 million oz/279.167 million =49.82% of comex .//

Comex withdrawals 3

i) Out of Brinks 908.860 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 600,003.420 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 5988.720 oz

total: 606,991.000 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.828 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 279.167 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 9 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 11 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD

20 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.

SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 1933 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 60,283

OCT LOST 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 479.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for 45,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 53,432 fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 77,977 good

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 925 x 5,000 oz = 4,625,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (9) and the number of notices served upon today 9 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 916 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (9) – number of notices served upon today (9 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.625 million oz.+ 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TODAY+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTALS: 6.075 MILLION oz.

There are 30.828 million oz of registered silver.

Thus if we take today’s standing at 6.075 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 36.975 million oz against only 30.828 million registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES

JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES

JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.

GLD INVENTORY: 894.42 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ

JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/

JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 452.290 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

A must read: For 10 months, the total budget deficit for 2023 is 1.61 trillion heading for a total deficit of around 1.8 trillion. Total debt is 32.66 trillion. Thisis unsustainable. Total interest costs will rise will above 1 trillion dollars for fiscal 2024.

(Mike Maharrey)

Biden Budget Deficits Look Like Those Normally Seen In Recessions

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

To hear President Joe Biden tell it, the US economy is booming. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is running monthly budget deficits that you would normally see during a deep recession.

With two months left to go, the deficit for fiscal 2023 now stands at $1.61 trillion, after the federal government charted another massive shortfall in July.

And Biden wants to spend even more.

To put the $1.61 trillion deficit in perspective, prior to the pandemic, the US government had only run deficits over $1 trillion four times — all in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Trump almost hit the $1 trillion mark in 2019 and was on pace to run a trillion-dollar deficit prior to the pandemic. The economic catastrophe caused by the government’s response to COVID-19 gave policymakers an excuse to spend with no questions asked. Now the Biden administration has settled into the new status quo – running ’08 financial crisis-like deficits every single year.

The July budget deficit came in at $220.78 billion, according to the latest Month Treasury Statement. The shortfall was due to a double whammy of big spending and falling government tax receipts.

The Treasury collected $276.16 billion in July, a big drop from June’s $418 billion in revenue. That was slightly above July 2022 receipts, but the revenue trend in 2023 has generally been downward.

The federal government enjoyed a revenue windfall in fiscal 2022. According to a Tax Foundation analysis of Congressional Budget Office data, federal tax collections were up 21%. Tax collections also came in at a multi-decade high of 19.6% as a share of GDP. But CBO analysts warned it won’t last. And government tax revenue will decline even faster as the economy spins into a recession.

The bigger problem is on the spending side of the ledger.

The Biden administration blew through another $496.94 billion in July. That was a 3.4% increase over July 2022 spending.

Now, you might be thinking that with the spending cuts in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, Congress fixed this problem. But we live in an upside-down world where spending cuts mean spending keeps going up.

In other words, the spending cuts will not put a dent in current spending levels. That means we can expect these massive deficits to continue month after month.

And the Biden administration already wants more money. Just last week, the president asked Congress to appropriate $40 billion in additional spending, including $24 billion for Ukraine and other international needs, $4 billion related to border security and $12 billion for disaster relief.

Keep in mind, the feds now have a credit card with no limit.

The fundamental issue wasn’t that the US government couldn’t borrow enough money. The fundamental problem was, and still is, that the US government spends too much money. Despite the pretend spending cuts, the debt ceiling deal didn’t address that problem. Even with the new plan in place, spending will go up. And it’s already historically high. That means big budget deficits will continue and the national debt will mount.

The US Treasury blew up the national debt by $850 billion in June alone as it scrambled to make up the ground it lost while the government was up against its borrowing limit. The national debt now stands at $32.66 trillion.

Meanwhile, according to the National Debt Clock, the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 119.1%. Despite the lack of concern in the mainstream, debt has consequences. More government debt means less economic growth. Studies have shown that a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90% retards economic growth by about 30%. This throws cold water on the conventional “spend now, worry about the debt later” mantra, along with the frequent claim that “we can grow ourselves out of the debt” now popular on both sides of the aisle in DC.

To put the debt into perspective, every American citizen would have to write a check for $97,547 in order to pay off the national debt.

This is an unsustainable trajectory, especially in a high-interest rate environment.

And if you believe the rhetoric coming out of the Federal Reserve, rates aren’t going down any time soon.

Meanwhile, the federal government has paid more than half a trillion dollars ($561 billion) on interest payments alone in fiscal 2023. In July, Uncle Sam forked out $67 billion in interest payments. The only spending categories that were larger were Social Security and Medicare. Last month, the US government spent more on interest expenses than it did on national defense.

According to an analysis by the New York Times, net interest costs rose by 41% last year. The Peterson Foundation said the jump in interest expense was larger than the biggest increase in interest costs in any single fiscal year, dating back to 1962.

The cost of financing the debt will almost certainly rise even more now that Congress has done away with the debt ceiling for two years.

As the Treasury floods the market with new debt, bond prices will likely fall in order to create enough demand for all of those Treasuries. Bond yields are inversely correlated with bond prices, and as prices fall, interest rates rise.

We’re already seeing extreme weakness in the bond market. Financial analyst Jim Grant recently said we could be heading toward a generational bear market in bonds. This would mean rising interest rates for the US government even if the Fed stepped in and tried to push rates down. This is an unsustainable trajectory for the US government. It simply cannot continue to borrow at this pace in a high-interest rate environment.

In fact, if interest rates remain elevated or continue to rise, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.)

It’s easy to blame the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this problem, but the real problem started with more than a decade of artificially low interest rates and easy money. This incentivized borrowing. The federal government’s rising interest expense is just one example of the debt chickens coming home to roost. And it’s one of the reasons Peter Schiff says the Fed will never get price inflation back to its 2% target.

end

This is a big story: India and the UAE complete the first oil sale of 1 million barrels of oil. India pays in rupees. However initially gold is purchased by India through an UAE exporter and then no doubt that gold is funneled back to UAE.

(Mike Maharrey)

Another Blow To The Petrodollar: India & The UAE Complete First Oil Sale In Rupees

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 08:20 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

In another blow to dollar dominance, India and the United Arab Emirates settled an oil trade without converting local currencies to dollars for the first time on Monday, as India’s top refiner made a payment for oil in rupees.

Indian Oil Corp. bought a million barrels of oil from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in a dollar-free transaction.

The oil sale was the first after the two countries entered a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in July. The deal established the Local Currency Settlement (LCS) system, facilitated by the Reserve Bank of India and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. The system allows the two countries to engage in bilateral trade using the rupee and dirham. According to a statement by the Reserve Bank of India, the agreement will facilitate “seamless cross-border transactions and payments, and foster greater economic cooperation.”

The first test of the LCS involved the sale of 25 kg of gold from a UAE gold exporter to a buyer in India at about 128.4 million rupees ($1.54 million).

According to WIONews in India, the LCS system will reduce costs and speed up transactions between the two countries.

Additionally, reliance on national currencies is anticipated to bolster economic resilience and strengthen bilateral relations. Moreover, any surplus balances in the local currencies can be invested in various local assets, including corporate bonds, government securities, and equity markets.”

India has also purchased oil from Russia using non-dollar currencies.

India ranks as the third-largest oil importer in the world.

If the trend of dollarless transactions expands to other countries, the minimization of the dollar in the global oil trade would be bad news for the United States.

As it stands, the majority of global oil sales are priced in dollars. This ensures a constant demand for the greenback since every country needs dollars to buy oil. This helps support the US government’s “borrow and spend” policies, along with its massive deficits. As long as the world needs dollars for oil, it guarantees demand for greenbacks. That means the Federal Reserve can keep printing dollars to monetize the debt.

ZeroHedge explained how the process works.

One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar’s reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar – this was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds in dollar-denominated assets and while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency, and in the process backstop the standing of the US as the world’s undisputed financial superpower.”

Simply put, de-dollarization would drastically diminish US economic power and wreck the country’s economy.

And India isn’t the only country drifting away from the dollar.

In January, Saudi Arabia Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said the country is open to discussing trade in currencies other than the US dollar.

“There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Al-Jadaan went on to say, “I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world.”

Saudi Arabia has sold oil exclusively for dollars since 1974 under a deal with the Nixon administration. If the Saudis shift away from the dollar and sell oil in other currencies, other countries would likely follow suit due to the country’s influence on the global oil market.

While the current de-dollarization trend doesn’t directly threaten the dollar’s role as the world reserve currency — yet — it could foreshadow bigger problems down the road, especially if the trend continues to accelerate. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, IMF Managing Director Gita Gopinath warned that sanctions on Russia could erode the dollar’s dominance by encouraging smaller trading blocs using other currencies. That’s exactly what we’re seeing.

If the demand for dollars were to plunge significantly, interest rates on US Treasury bonds would soar. This would be an untenable situation for a government servicing more than $32 trillion in debt.

While the world isn’t on the verge of jettisoning the dollar, there does seem to be an increasing likelihood the petrodollar could face competition from other currencies. This is yet another sign that the dollar may eventually lose its status as the sole reserve currency. Americans should be wary of counting on long-term dollar dominance to prop up its house of cards economy.

end

How Turkey’s Love Affair With Gold Impacted The Global Market

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Turkey’s love affair with gold has had a major impact on global gold flows, especially through the first half of 2023.

Turks have historically held a lot of gold, both in jewelry and investment form. The country ranks as the fifth-largest gold market in the world. But with recent economic turmoil in the country demand for gold has exploded.

According to the World Gold Council, Turkish demand for gold bars and gold coins increased five-fold during the second quarter of this year, pushing total demand to a record 98 tons through the first half of 2023.

Gold jewelry demand has also surged in Turkey this year, posting a fourth consecutive double-digit percentage increase in Q2, H1 demand came in at 20 tons. That was up 25% year-on-year and marked a five-year high.

Since the start of 2020 Turkish bar and coin demand has made up, on average, 9% of the global total. That’s more than double the country’s 4% share between 2010 and 2020. Turkey’s surging investment demand accounted for 17% of global bar and coin demand in Q2’23.

What drove this big spike in demand?

In a nutshell: currency depreciation.

According to the World Gold Council, “A combination of high inflation and regular currency depreciation over the past few decades has fueled healthy growth in retail gold demand in recent years.”

The Turkish economy has long been subject to bouts of price inflation, but moves by the government and the central bank over the last two years put price inflation on steroids.

At the assistance of President Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s central bank began cutting interest rates in September 2021. According to a CNN report at the time, the Turkish president holds the unorthodox view that interest rate cuts can rein in price inflation.

Predictably, the lira crashed. It lost 15% against the dollar in a single day in November 2021.

When the Central Bank of Turkey began cutting rates, price inflation was already running at 19%. As the central bank slashed rates, the official Turkish CPI climbed to 85% on an annual basis by October 2022. Independent economists measured the country’s price inflation at 185%.

As price inflation soared, Turks piled into hard assets, including real estate and gold in an attempt to protect their wealth from the country’s rapidly depreciating currency.

Moves by the Turkish government earlier this year only served to increase the demand for gold.

After a catastrophic earthquake in February 2023, the country’s treasury imposed an additional 20% fee on gold imports from countries outside the EU that did not have a free trade agreement with Turkey. According to Reuters, the move was intended to shrink the country’s rapidly growing trade deficit.

The government later banned some gold imports.

Predictably, these import restrictions caused a big drop in gold supply within the country even as demand was surging.

In order to meet local demand, the Central Bank of Turkey sold 165 tons of gold into the domestic gold market over a three-month period.

Prior to March, the central bank ranked as the world’s biggest gold buyer. With the Turkish bank significantly reducing its gold holdings, net central bank gold reserves fell for several months.

The Central Bank of Turkey returned to gold buying in June.

As the government put the squeeze on the gold supply, premiums soared, hitting levels between $100 and $150 per ounce. But even those high premiums couldn’t dent the Turkish appetite for gold.

The country normalized gold import regulations in July. Premiums dropped back to normal levels, but according to the World Gold Council, there was little selling by the public, despite record-high gold prices in lira terms.

And this month, the Turkish government has reinstated gold import quotas in order to lower the country’s current account deficit and replenish central bank reserves. It also slapped additional taxes back on some gold imports.

The Central Bank of Turkey got a new governor in June. He reportedly holds more conventional views on monetary policy.

According to the World Gold Council, “Against this backdrop, it seems likely that Turkish investment demand will remain strong.”

The government is strictly controlling gold imports for now, but whether that continues – and whether the TCMB is again forced to sell gold domestically to satisfy unmet needs – depends upon the performance of the broader Turkish economy and the nation’s foreign exchange position. Needless to say, these issues will attract attention from global gold market followers.”

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

The Great American Blunder

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 01:45 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

From a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. today has never been weaker than since the post-Vietnam era.

Remember the images of U.S. helicopters taking off from its South Vietnamese embassy in 1975, loaded with refugees trying to escape the country?

It was a national humiliation.

So was the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2022. Desperate Afghans, eager to escape Taliban rule, clung to American transports leaving Kabul.

It might represent an even greater national humiliation.

In both cases, U.S. weakness was on full display for the world to see. Its defeat in Vietnam led to Soviet geopolitical gains throughout the world.

U.S. credibility around the world was restored during the 1980s as Reagan rebuilt the U.S. military into a powerful force.

U.S. geopolitical power peaked after its dramatic victory in the First Gulf War in 1991. But the U.S. proceeded to squander that power in the wake of 9/11, with strategic failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, for the past 20 years, the U.S. focused on fighting terrorists that have limited combat capability, not serious rivals like Russia with significant conventional forces.

Wonder Weapons?

Many U.S. weapons systems supplied to Ukraine have proven to be inadequate or in some cases, total failures.

Patriot missile batteries cannot shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles. The Patriot batteries are being blown up one-by-one at a cost of $1 billion each.

U.S. Bradley fighting vehicles have been left in flames and ruins on the battlefields of Ukraine due to Russian mines.

The M-777 howitzers the U.S. and its allies have sent to Ukraine have proved too fragile to withstand the high rates of fire required on the Ukrainian battlefields.

And U.S. HIMARS precision artillery doesn’t always work because the Russians have learned to jam the guidance systems with electronic warfare techniques.

Don’t think that the rest of the world hasn’t taken note of all this.

Meanwhile, the U.S. industrial capacity to provide the weapons and ammunition to fight this type of attritional war is highly inadequate.

The U.S. produces about 14,000 artillery shells per month, which it hopes to double over the next few years. That might seem like a lot. But 14,000 shells is only enough to supply Ukraine for about a week at current firing rates.

On the other hand, it’s estimated that the Russians are producing anywhere from 250,000-400,000 shells per month.

You do the math.

The Weakest Link in the Chain

But the weakest link in the chain isn’t inadequate ammunition or substandard equipment. The weakest link in the chain is U.S. senior leadership, particularly Joe Biden. The Russians and the Chinese have taken note.

They just conducted joint naval operations off the coast of Alaska and well within sight of U.S. territory in the Aleutian Islands.

Few Americans may realize or recall that, during World War II, the Japanese Imperial Navy actually did invade and occupy parts of Alaska close to where the Russians and Chinese are conducting surveillance today.

Weakness breeds weakness and eventually war. The weak leadership in the U.S. is inviting unprecedented challenges from our main rivals. Expect more of this until someday two ships collide or two planes collide in mid-air, potentially leading to a shooting war.

This wasn’t inevitable. For years, the U.S. has driven Russia into the arms of China through a combination of hubris and strategic shortsightedness. That was a massive mistake.

Worse Than a Crime, It Was a Blunder

Russia, China and the U.S. are the only true superpowers and the only three countries that ultimately matter in geopolitics. That’s not a slight against any other power. But all others are secondary powers (the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Israel, etc) or tertiary powers (Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc).

One of the keys to U.S. foreign policy in the last 50 or 60 years has been to make sure that Russia and China never form an alliance. Keeping them separated was key.

Specifically, the U.S. has strived to ensure that no power, or combination of powers, could dominate the Eurasian landmass.

This meant that the ideal posture for the U.S. is to ally with Russia (to marginalize China) or ally with China (to marginalize Russia), depending on overall geopolitical conditions.

The U.S. conducted this kind of triangulation successfully from the 1970s until the early 2000s.

In 1972, Nixon pivoted to China to put pressure on Russia. In 1991, the U.S. pivoted to Russia to put pressure on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre.

Unfortunately, the U.S. lost sight of this basic rule of international relations. It is now Russia and China that have formed a strong alliance, to the disadvantage of the United States.

The war in Ukraine has intensified this dynamic.

Historians Will Scratch Their Heads

One leg of the China-Russia relationship is their joint desire to see the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency. They’ve chafed against the ways in which the U.S. has used the dollar as a financial weapon.

Again, the unprecedented sanctions against Russia have accelerated this process. We’ll see it come to fruition next week, when the BRICS nations are expected to launch a new gold-backed currency.

Ultimately, this two-against-one strategic alignment of China and Russia against the U.S. is a strategic blunder by Washington.

The fact is, Washington has squandered a major opportunity to shape the geopolitical world in America’s favor.

When future historians look back on the 2010s they will be baffled by the lost opportunity for the U.S. to mend fences with Russia, develop economic relations and create a win-win relationship between the world’s greatest technology innovator and the world’s greatest natural resources provider.

It will seem a great loss for the world.

Russia is the nation that the U.S. should have tried to court and should still be courting. That’s because China is the greatest geopolitical threat to the U.S. because of its economic and technological advances and its ambition to push the U.S. out of the Western Pacific sphere of influence.

Russia may be a threat to some of its neighbors (ask Ukraine), but it is far less of a threat to U.S. strategic interests. It’s not the Soviet Union anymore. Therefore, a logical balance of power in the world would be for the U.S. and Russia to find common ground in the containment of China and to jointly pursue the reduction of Chinese power.

Of course, that hasn’t happened. And we could be paying the price for years to come. Who’s to blame for this U.S. strategic failure? You can start with the globalist elites…

It’s All About Trump

The elites’ efforts to derail Trump gave rise to the “Russia collusion” hoax. While no one disputes that Russia sought to sow confusion in the U.S. election in 2016, that’s something the Russians and their Soviet predecessors had been doing since 1917. By itself, little harm was done.

Yet the elites seized on this to concoct a story of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. The real collusion was among Democrats, Ukrainians and Russians to discredit Trump.

It took the Robert Mueller investigation two years finally to conclude there was no collusion between Trump and the Russians. By then, the damage was done.

It was politically toxic for Trump to reach out to the Russians. That would be spun by the media as more evidence of “collusion.”

Whatever you think of Trump personally, the collusion story was always bogus.

Now, just a few short years later, Russia and China are successfully spearheading efforts to break away from the dollar and are conducting joint naval exercises within sight of American territory.

The U.S. has no one to blame but itself.

end

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Fitch warns it may have to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPM

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-08-15 13:57Section: Daily Dispatches

By Hugh Son
CNBC, New York
Tuesday, August 15, 2023

A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase.

The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.

But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/fitch-warns-it-may-be-forced-to-downgrade-dozens-of-banks.html

end

Ed Steer: A much better than expected COT report

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-08-15 21:00Section: Daily Dispatches

9p ET Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “A Much Better Than Expected COT Report” and it’s posted in the clear at SilverSeek here:

https://silverseek.com/article/much-better-expected-cot-report

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2980

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3258

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.05 PTS OR 0.82%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 251.81 PTS OR 1.36%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 472.07 OR 1.46%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.99 EURO RISES TO 1.0917 UP 13 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.618 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 145.73/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.6505***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.340*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.691…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.921

3j Gold at $1903.95 silver at: 22.67 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 83 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.14//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145.73// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.619% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8803 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9616well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.195 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.307 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.920 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.06…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.6590

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes As China Turmoil Grows

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 08:05 AM

US equity futures and European stocks are little changed, having swung between gains and losses, following a broadly negative session in Asia where concerns surrounding the Chinese economy (home prices fell for the first time this year, fueling recession concerns despite increasing expectations for more stimulus) and the implosion of shadow banking giant Zhongrong (China’s Blackstone) continued to weigh on sentiment with focus remaining on earnings.

As of 7:30am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were unchanged, with JPM’s trading desk wondering if “there is enough momentum to stage a relief rally today” (full note available to pro subs). Commodities are rebounding across all three complexes with USD weaker. Government bonds in the US and Europe were broadly stronger, with US 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.18%, halting a run of losses that was fueled by concern interest rates will be kept at high levels for longer than expected. The dollar rebounded from an early selloff while the pound strengthened as UK inflation topped expectations. Today’s macro focus is the Fed Minutes, housing data, Industrial Production, and Consumer-sector earnings.

In premarket trading, shares of Target jumped on a strong profit rebound at the retailer even as the company slashed its guidance, while electric-vehicle makers are lower again after Tesla cut its prices in China for the second time in three days, further fueling concerns of renewing a price war that had showed some signs of abating (Tesla -1.5%, Rivian -1.7% and Nikola -2.1%). Keep an eye on banks, which got hit on news of a potential sector-wide ratings downgrade; XLF and KRE are indicated flat pre-mkt. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Cava rises 12% after the fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain said it expects higher profits this year.
Coherent falls 20% after the semiconductor device company forecast revenue for the first quarter that came in below analysts’ estimates.
Dlocal shares soared 30% after the Uruguayan financial technology firm reported second-quarter net income that beat estimates and named e-commerce veteran Pedro Arnt as co-CEO. Analysts said the results were strong and applauded Arnt’s appointment.
Occidental edges up 0.4% after the oil producer said it agreed to acquire Canadian startup Carbon Engineering Ltd. for $1.1 billion in cash.
Target (TGT) climbs 7.7% after reporting fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and gross margin that topped the average analyst estimates. Adjusted EPS $1.80 vs. 39c y/y, estimate $1.40. Still, the retailer lowered its full-year sales and profit expectations.
VinFast Auto falls 12% after the Vietnamese automaker’s shares surged 255% on Tuesday when it debuted on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, becoming the latest beneficiary of frenzy around SPAC deals.
AngioDynamics (ANGO) gains 8.4% after the company said the FDA has granted breakthrough device designation for AngioVac System “for use to include the non-surgical removal of vegetation from the right heart.”.
Coherent falls 24% after the semiconductor device company gave a forecast that was weaker than expected.
Nubank (NU) shares advance 3.4% after the digital bank reported second-quarter net income that beat estimates. Morgan Stanley said the results were solid, while Numis noted that the company had achieved the objectives that were core to its business model.

Market sentiment was dented by a renewed concerns about China’s economic woes despite a slew of stimulus steps by authorities, with the onshore yuan sinking toward its weakest in 16 years against the dollar and the MSCI China Index of stocks set to erase gains seen since a key policy meeting in late July.

China’s central bank moved again on Wednesday to boost fragile sentiment with a stronger-than-expected reference rate for the yuan and the largest injection of short term cash to the financial system since February. So far the steps have failed to restore optimism and market moves suggest traders are looking for more aggressive supportive measures. “Market participants are watching the developments on the real estate markets in China and the US with growing concern,” said Andreas Lipkow, a strategist at Comdirect Bank. Realizing the futility of China’s piecemeal interventions which do nothing, a PBOC central banker has now called for at least 3 trillion yuan in helicopter money to stimulate flagging consumer demand.

Meanwhile, money-market wagers for the Bank of England’s peak interest rate held steady at 6% after the UK inflation print came in hotter than expected as the cost of travel and holidays climbed. The numbers added to hot wage figures and US retail statistics that rattled markets on Tuesday, spurring bets tight central bank policy will be in place for longer. inneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that inflation was “still too high.”

European equities moved between modest gains and losses as growing pessimism around China’s economic outlook prompted caution among investors. Higher-than-expected UK inflation data also weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed after falling to the lowest level in a month on Tuesday. Retailers led gains while energy and travel and leisure stocks were the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, Admiral Group Plc rallied after reporting results that Jefferies said showed that its UK car business had recovered well. Elsewhere, nutrition firm Glanbia Plc advanced after boosting its full-year adjusted earnings guidance. Here are the biggest European movers:

Aviva rises as much as 3% after the UK insurer and asset manager said 2023 earnings should exceed medium-term targets. Morgan Stanley notes improving property and casual insurance
Sectra gains as much as 9.9%, the most since June, after the medical imaging firm announced it has won an enterprise imaging contract with “one of the larger multi-region healthcare systems in the US”
Demant gains as much as 5.3% after the Danish hearing-aid maker raised its sales and earnings outlook for the year. Still, the guidance upgrade was “widely anticipated,” according to Citi analysts
B&M European Value Retail rises as much as 3.2% in a third day of gains amid speculation that the company could bid for collapsed British discounter Wilko
Glanbia shares climb as much as 5.7% to the highest since September 2021 after the Irish food and nutrition company increased its outlook for the year and named Hugh McGuire as its new CEO
Balfour Beatty falls as much as 4.8%, the most intraday since February, after the UK construction and infrastructure group’s 1H EPS came below expectations and its net cash position fell, Liberum writes
Prosus shares drop as much as 3.9% in Amsterdam trading after Tencent’s second-quarter revenue missed expectations, held back by lower-than-expected sales from games both at home and abroad
Antofagasta falls as much as 2.4% after RBC Capital downgrades to underperform, citing growing capital expenditure and a risk to the premium valuation the miner has built year-to-date
Storskogen falls as much as 26% after the Swedish acquisition group’s second-quarter Ebit dropped 11% y/y and fell 19% short of consensus expectations, also guiding for continued challenges

Asian equities retreat for fourth day as risk appetite remained low in the wake of growing economic concerns in China and prospects of the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.4%, set for its lowest close since May 31. Chinese equities weighed on the regional benchmark as disappointing economic data worsened the recent selloff, while South Korean gauges were the worst performers regionally as foreign investors sold shares amid a stronger dollar. Hang Seng falls 1.2% and mainland indexes lose ground. Japanese, South Korean and Australian stock indexes all decline.

“A recent set of disappointing economic data out of China has not been encouraging for the region,” Jun Rong Yeap, Market Analyst at IG Asia Pte. said in a note. The aggressive 15 bps cut by Chinese central bank to its one-year policy interest reflects the severity of the economic weakness that authorities foresee to drag on for longer, Yeap said.

The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp remained pressured amid China growth concerns as recent poor data releases have prompted several banks to cut their growth forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy including JPMorgan which now anticipates 4.8% GDP growth for China this year, while the latest House Price data also showed a contraction Y/Y to add to the ongoing developer woes. The MSCI China Index is on course to erase all its gains made since last month’s Politburo meeting, reflecting growing anxiety among investors that Asia’s largest economy needs major economic stimulus to boost its consumption and property sector.
Japanese stocks fell on Wednesday amid concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer in the US and as the outlook for the Chinese economy remained downbeat. The Topix Index fell 1.3% to 2,260.84 while the Nikkei declined 1.5% to 31,766.82. Materials-related stocks such as steel and non-ferrous metals declined, as did trading company stocks.
In Australia, the ASX 200 was led lower by the large industries, while participants also digested earnings and a softer leading index.
Stocks in India erased initial losses to end higher as utilities and automakers gained. Local shares were among major gainers in Asia as most regional peers fell amid concerns over slowing growth in China. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to 65,539.42 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar measure before recovering from a drop of as much as 0.6%. Trading in India was closed on Tuesday for a local holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower, falling as much as 0.2% after four-straight days of increases. The dollar was lower against all G10 peers.

The pound rose as much as 0.5% to $1.2766, set for a second day of gains versus the dollar after inflation data came in slightly stronger than expected. It’s the best performer among the G-10’s with the kiwi, which rose after the RBNZ left the door open to further rate hikes.
EUR/USD snapped three days of declines against the US dollar, rising about 0.3% to 1.0934
The New Zealand dollar reversed an intraday decline after the Reserve Bank left its key rate unchanged at 5.5% but signaled a small chance of another rate hike. Yields on 2-year swaps also reversed its 2.5-basis point slidethanks earlier in the day
A selloff in Chinese assets deepened on Wednesday, with a key equity gauge set to erase all gains seen since last month’s Politburo meeting and the yuan falling toward a 16-year low.

In rates, treasuries are in the green with US 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.18% on speculation the jump in yields is overdone; treasuries were richer across the curve by up to 4.5bps in a bull steepening move with front-end leading gains; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are steeper by 1.7bp and 4.5bp on the day ahead of key US data and FOMC meeting minutes release later in the US session. 10-year yields around 4.18% after breaching 4.20% Tuesday, richer by 3bp on the day and outperforming bunds and gilts by 0.5bp and 6bp. The current TSY yield provides a good entry point for investors, according to Steven Major, global head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings. “Going up the US curve to 10 year-plus is now looking more and more interesting,” he said on Bloomberg Television. Bunds also rise but gilts are nursing small declines after UK inflation rose slightly faster than expected in July. The dollar IG issuance slate empty so far; three deals priced Tuesday for a combined $1.85b — at least three issuers elected against announcing transactions.

In commodities, crude futures are little changed with WTI trading near $81. Benchmark European natural gas futures rose as much as 10% — after gaining 13% on Tuesday — as traders weighed the prospect of disruptions against weak demand and high storage levels in the region. Gold prices edged 0.2% higher.

Looking to the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the FOMC minutes from their July meeting. US data releases include July’s industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits. Elsewhere, there’s UK CPI for July and Euro Area industrial production for June. Lastly, earnings releases include Target and Cisco.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,465.25
MXAP down 1.2% to 159.53
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 502.94
Nikkei down 1.5% to 31,766.82
Topix down 1.3% to 2,260.84
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 18,329.30
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,150.13
Sensex little changed at 65,403.63
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 7,195.17
Kospi down 1.8% to 2,525.64
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 456.34
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.67%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0934
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $85.01/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,905.41
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 102.95

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

A record of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting due Wednesday is set to show only a minority of officials favored holding interest rates steady over the remainder of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics.
UK inflation remained higher than expected last month as the cost of travel and holidays climbed, adding to the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates again.
The yen may have slumped to within a whisker of levels that saw Japan intervene in the currency market last year, but options traders see little need to prepare for a jolt from authorities in Tokyo.
New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting but signaled a risk that it may need to hike them further to tame inflation.
China home prices dropped for a second month in July, a further sign of the deepening property downturn that’s weighing on the world’s second-largest economy.
Fitch Ratings Ltd. said it may reconsider China’s A+ sovereign credit score, adding to the growing pessimism toward the nation’s financial markets.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured following the declines on Wall St amid the broad risk-off mood, which was triggered by global macro headwinds, in particular, the recent slew of weak data from China. ASX 200 was led lower by the large industries, while participants also digested earnings and a softer leading index. Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 32,000 level as all major bourses suffered from the falling tide across stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp remained pressured amid China growth concerns as recent poor data releases have prompted several banks to cut their growth forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy including JPMorgan which now anticipates 4.8% GDP growth for China this year, while the latest House Price data also showed a contraction Y/Y to add to the ongoing developer woes.

Top Asian News

China reportedly asked some funds to avoid net equity sales as the market sinks, according to Bloomberg sources.
RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future and the current level of interest rates is constraining spending and hence inflation pressure, as anticipated and required. RBNZ also stated that headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined but measures of core inflation remain too high, as well as noted there is a risk in the near-term that activity and inflation measures do not slow as much as expected. Furthermore, it slightly raised OCR projections which is seen at 5.57% in September 2024 (prev. 5.43%) and at 5.50% in December 2024 (prev. 5.30%).
RBNZ Governor Orr said during the press conference that the rise in the OCR track is not forward guidance and is not a strong signal of their next move, while they are wary about doing too much on rates. Orr noted that risks in the next few months are that activity could be stronger than projected, while he responded that there will always be the risk of another rate hike as there is always the risk of a rate cut when asked if there are risks of another hike, and stated that they are very comfortable where the OCR is.

European bourses trade mixed after opening after shrugging off mild broad-based opening losses with no obvious catalyst behind the move at the time. Sectors are mixed with Retail, Utilities, Consumer Produce & Services at the top of the bunch while Travel & Leisure, Media, Energy and Telecoms reside as the laggards. Stateside, equity futures are trading slightly firmer as some positive sentiment attempts to return following yesterday’s closes, with traders looking ahead to FOMC minutes.

Top European News

Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO expects that inflation will be difficult to lower; cites climate change, driving up food prices and lowering worker productivity.

DXY faded again on a combination of factors; the index narrowly failed to match the prior session high before retreating from 103.270 to 102.940 and back down through the 200 DMA in the process.
GBP received a boost from slightly above consensus core UK inflation hot on the heels of the even stronger average earnings relative to expectations.
NZD is the top G10 performer after the RBNZ held rates but tweaked its OCR path upwards to omit a rate cut by Dec 2024.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1986 vs exp. 7.2878 (prev. 7.1768)
Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.
Russian Authorities may bring back the compulsory sale of FX revenues “at any moment” even though part of export revenues are now in Roubles and Rupees, according to Reuters citing a high-level source who said the move could be imminent.
South Korean Finance Minister said tax breaks on oil products are to be extended until the end of October, adding they are closely watching the FX market, according to Reuters.

Fixed Income

Debt futures remain broadly firmer after recouping more losses from fresh cycle lows, with the exception of Gilts that have been hampered by core UK CPI bucking the disinflationary dynamic.
Bunds are hovering just over 131.00 within a 131.14-130.65 range, while Gilts sits sub-parity between 93.05-92.53 parameters and the T-note holds nearer 110.04+ overnight peak than 109-24 trough
Germany sold EUR 0.787bln vs. Exp. EUR 1bln 0.00% 2050 Bund and EUR 1.266bln vs. Exp. EUR 1.5bln 0.00% 2052 Bund

Commodities

WTI and Brent futures are flat in tight ranges with little in the way of fresh newsflow for the complex, with the downside from the overnight risk aversion somewhat cushioned by the constructive Private Inventory report yesterday
Spot gold moves in tandem with the Buck after finding overnight support at the USD 1,900/oz mark and gradually inching higher back towards its 200 DMA (1,905/oz).
Base metals have tilted firmer since the lacklustre European opened with sentiment in the complex potentially supported (alongside the soft dollar) by Chinese battery maker CATL unveiling its new “superfast charging” long-range battery.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.2mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline +0.7mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -0.8mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -1.0mln.
Woodside Energy (WDS AT) workers at the North West Shelf LNG plant will likely hold more talks next week after failing to reach an agreement yesterday. The talks are reportedly slated for next Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources. Chevron (CVX) will reportedly delay plans to sell some spot market cargoes from its Gorgon operation amid the risk of strikes, according to Bloomberg sources.
Warehouses and grain silos were damaged in Russia’s overnight attack at one of the Danube river ports in Ukraine, according to the Odesa governor cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics

Ukraine said Russian drones were over the Danube and headed towards river port Izmail. It was also reported that Russia’s Defence Ministry said it destroyed three Ukrainian drones over Russia’s Kaluga region, according to Reuters.
North Korea said US soldier Travis King confessed he decided to come over to North Korea as he harboured ill feelings against the US Army and expressed a willingness to seek refuge in North Korea or a third country, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications -0.8%, prior -3.1%
08:30: July Housing Starts, est. 1.45m, prior 1.43m
- July Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.1%, prior -8.0%
- July Building Permits, est. 1.46m, prior 1.44m, revised 1.44m
- July Building Permits MoM, est. 1.5%, prior -3.7%
09:15: July Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
- July Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0%, prior -0.3%
- July Capacity Utilization, est. 79.1%, prior 78.9%
14:00: July FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have continued to struggle over the last 24 hours, with both the S&P 500 (-1.16%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.93%) hitting a one-month low. Several factors were behind the declines, including ongoing concern about China’s economy. But yesterday also brought a fresh round of concerns about inflation, not least after UK wage growth and Canadian CPI both surprised on the upside, whilst European natural gas prices (+12.89%) saw a fresh spike amidst a potential strike at Australian LNG facilities. All that put a dent in risk assets, but the inflation fears contributed to a decent bond sell-off as well, with yields reaching their highest level in months across several countries.

Markets had already started the day on the back foot after the weak China data we discussed yesterday and the mood didn’t improve much from there, starting with the latest UK labour market data. That showed regular annual pay growth (excluding bonuses) was running at +7.8% over the three months to June, which was the highest since comparable records begin in 2001, and some way above the +7.4% consensus. That added to fears about entrenched inflation, whilst there was also bad news on the unemployment side, which rose to 4.2% over the same period (vs. 4.0% expected). See our economists’ reaction note here for more details.

The UK print led investors to ratchet up the chance of further rate hikes from the Bank of England over the months ahead. Indeed, the size of the hike priced in for the next meeting in September went up by +8.3bps yesterday from 23.7bps to 32.0bps, and this morning markets are now fully pricing in a terminal rate of 6% by the time of the March 2024 meeting. So all eyes will be on today’s UK CPI print to see how that changes things, and our UK economist is looking for a +6.8% reading.

That wage data served as the catalyst for a substantial sovereign bond sell-off that only came off slightly towards the day’s end. In fact, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.6bps) hit a post-SVB high of 2.67%, as did those on 10yr OATs (+4.0bps) which closed at 3.21%. 10yr gilts saw a more moderate rise (+2.3bps to 4.59%) but with a larger sell-off in the 2yr after the stronger pay data (+5.6bps). There were also sizeable moves at the long end of the curve, with the nominal and real 30yr gilt yield both rising to their highest level since the mini-budget turmoil last year, at 4.77% and 1.34%, respectively.

Inflation news elsewhere added further fuel to the sell-off. For instance, Canada’s CPI in July moved back up to +3.3% (vs. +3.0% expected), which similarly led investors to price in a growing chance of another Bank of Canada rate hike by year-end. And back in Europe, natural gas futures (+12.89%) closed at their highest level in over two months. That came as the potential strike among Australian LNG workers remained unresolved. If there is a strike, that could interrupt as much as 10% of global LNG exports, so it has significant importance to the global market.

The backdrop of weaker China activity data and higher inflation risks meant that risk assets put in a weak performance across the board, with the S&P 500 down -1.16%. Banks (-2.75%) saw their weakest day since early May, whilst energy stocks (-2.44%) also underperformed as oil prices retreated (WTI crude -1.84% to $80.99/bl). That said, the decline was broad-based, with all 24 industry groups of the S&P 500 down on the day. This came in spite of upbeat retail sales numbers out of the US, with headline sales up +0.7% in July (vs. +0.4% expected) and retail control up +1.0% (vs +0.5% exp.). Other indices saw a similar pattern, with the NASDAQ (-1.14%) and the Dow Jones (-1.02%) both losing ground. And back in Europe it was much the same story, with losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.93%), the DAX (-0.86%) and the CAC 40 (-1.10%).

Another asset that saw significant moves yesterday were US Treasuries, and the 10yr real yield (+5.0bps) closed at a post-2009 high of 1.88%. Nominal yields had an eventful day too, with the 10yr yield (+2.0bps) up for a 4th consecutive day to 4.211%, which was actually a slight pullback from the intraday peak of 4.268%. That went alongside a steepening in the yield curve, with the 2yr yield down -1.5bps to 4.952% as investors priced in a slightly more dovish path for the fed funds rate. For instance, futures for the December 2023 and 2024 meetings were down -1.2bps and -2.7bps, respectively. That also followed comments from Minneapolis fed President Kashkari, who commented that he wasn’t “ready to say that we’re done”, and that the Fed is “a long way from cutting rates”.

Overnight in Asia, that pattern of losses has continued, with sharp losses across the major indices. That includes the KOSPI (-1.52%) as it returns after a public holiday, as well as the Hang Seng (-1.39%), the Nikkei (-1.09%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) and the CSI 300 (-0.18%). The moves come amidst further signs of property market weakness in China, with new home prices down by a monthly -0.23% in July. In the meantime, the People’s Bank of China injected a net 297bn yuan of cash through its 7-day reverse repurchase contracts overnight, which is the most since February. Looking forward, equity futures are pointing to further losses, with those on the STOXX 50 (-0.33%) and the DAX (-0.37%) falling back, whilst S&P 500 futures (-0.01%) have seen a modest decline.

Elsewhere overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its benchmark policy rate at 5.5% as expected, whilst indicating that interest rates would need to stay high for some time yet to tame inflation. Their latest forecasts show the average official cash rate with a higher path than before, with a peak of 5.59% in mid-2024. However, Governor Orr played down the higher rate track, saying that they were in “watch, worry and wait” mode. This morning the New Zealand dollar is the best-performing G10 currency, and is up +0.17% against the US Dollar.

When it came to yesterday’s other data, the US Empire State manufacturing survey fell back to -19.0 (vs. -1.0 expected). Separately, the NAHB’s housing market index fell back to 50 in August (vs. 56 expected), which marked an end to a run of 7 consecutive monthly gains. Over in Europe, the German ZEW survey saw the current situation fall to its weakest since October at -71.3 (vs. -63.0 expected). However, the expectations component moved up slightly to -12.3 (vs. -14.9 expected).

To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the FOMC minutes from their July meeting. US data releases include July’s industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits. Elsewhere, there’s UK CPI for July and Euro Area industrial production for June. Lastly, earnings releases include Target and Cisco.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

EUROPE/ASIA

European bourses mixed, DXY softer, NZD bid following RBNZ; FOMC Minutes due – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 06:11 AM

European bourses trade mixed after opening after shrugging off mild broad-based opening losses with no obvious catalyst behind the move at the time.
DXY is softer and trades on either side of 103.00, T-note futures hold near overnight peaks, US equity futures are trading flat with a positive bias ahead of FOMC minutes.
GBP and NZD outperform, the former following hotter-than-expected UK inflation and the latter after RBNZ left rates unchanged but upped the OCR path.
China reportedly asked some funds to avoid net equity sales as the market sinks, according to Bloomberg sources; Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.
Looking ahead, highlights include: Highlights include US Building Permits & Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Cisco.

Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead preview.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses trade mixed after opening after shrugging off mild broad-based opening losses with no obvious catalyst behind the move at the time.
Sectors are mixed with Retail, Utilities, Consumer Produce & Services at the top of the bunch while Travel & Leisure, Media, Energy and Telecoms reside as the laggards.
Stateside, equity futures are trading slightly firmer as some positive sentiment attempts to return following yesterday’s closes, with traders looking ahead to FOMC minutes.
Click here for more detail.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.

FX

DXY faded again on a combination of factors; the index narrowly failed to match the prior session high before retreating from 103.270 to 102.940 and back down through the 200 DMA in the process.
GBP received a boost from slightly above consensus core UK inflation hot on the heels of the even stronger average earnings relative to expectations.
NZD is the top G10 performer after the RBNZ held rates but tweaked its OCR path upwards to omit a rate cut by Dec 2024.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1986 vs exp. 7.2878 (prev. 7.1768)
Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.
Russian Authorities may bring back the compulsory sale of FX revenues “at any moment” even though part of export revenues are now in Roubles and Rupees, according to Reuters citing a high-level source who said the move could be imminent.
South Korean Finance Minister said tax breaks on oil products are to be extended until the end of October, adding they are closely watching the FX market, according to Reuters.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Debt futures remain broadly firmer after recouping more losses from fresh cycle lows, with the exception of Gilts that have been hampered by core UK CPI bucking the disinflationary dynamic.
Bunds are hovering just over 131.00 within a 131.14-130.65 range, while Gilts sits sub-parity between 93.05-92.53 parameters and the T-note holds nearer 110.04+ overnight peak than 109-24 trough
Germany sold EUR 0.787bln vs. Exp. EUR 1bln 0.00% 2050 Bund and EUR 1.266bln vs. Exp. EUR 1.5bln 0.00% 2052 Bund
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent futures are flat in tight ranges with little in the way of fresh newsflow for the complex, with the downside from the overnight risk aversion somewhat cushioned by the constructive Private Inventory report yesterday
Spot gold moves in tandem with the Buck after finding overnight support at the USD 1,900/oz mark and gradually inching higher back towards its 200 DMA (1,905/oz).
Base metals have tilted firmer since the lacklustre European opened with sentiment in the complex potentially supported (alongside the soft dollar) by Chinese battery maker CATL unveiling its new “superfast charging” long-range battery.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.2mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline +0.7mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -0.8mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -1.0mln.
Woodside Energy (WDS AT) workers at the North West Shelf LNG plant will likely hold more talks next week after failing to reach an agreement yesterday. The talks are reportedly slated for next Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources. Chevron (CVX) will reportedly delay plans to sell some spot market cargoes from its Gorgon operation amid the risk of strikes, according to Bloomberg sources.
Warehouses and grain silos were damaged in Russia’s overnight attack at one of the Danube river ports in Ukraine, according to the Odesa governor cited by Reuters.
Click here for the updated Newsquawk analysis on the Australian LNG labour talks.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Tesla (TSLA) cut prices for Model S and X in China, according to Reuters.
Intel (INTC) confirmed the termination of Tower Semiconductor Acquisition (TSEM), and will pay a termination fee of USD 353mln to Tower, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO expects that inflation will be difficult to lower; cites climate change, driving up food prices and lowering worker productivity.

DATA RECAP

UK CPI YY* (Jul 2023) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 7.9%); All Services CPI: 7.4% (prev. 7.2%)
UK CPI MM* (Jul 2023) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.1%)
UK Core CPI YY* (Jul 2023) 6.9% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.9%)
UK Core CPI MM* (Jul 2023) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
EU GDP Flash Estimate YY (Q2 2023) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
EU GDP Flash Estimate QQ (Q2 2023) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
EU Employment Flash YY (Q2) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
EU Industrial Production YY (Jun 2023) -1.2% vs. Exp. -4.2% (Prev. -2.2%)
EU Industrial Production MM (Jun 2023) 0.5% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

Ukraine said Russian drones were over the Danube and headed towards river port Izmail. It was also reported that Russia’s Defence Ministry said it destroyed three Ukrainian drones over Russia’s Kaluga region, according to Reuters.
North Korea said US soldier Travis King confessed he decided to come over to North Korea as he harboured ill feelings against the US Army and expressed a willingness to seek refuge in North Korea or a third country, according to KCNA.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is flat just above the USD 29k mark within recent ranges.
Crypto exchange Bittrex Global reaches successful settlement with SEC; includes a USD 24mln payment which will be paid by the Co, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were pressured following the declines on Wall St amid the broad risk-off mood, which was triggered by global macro headwinds, in particular, the recent slew of weak data from China.
ASX 200 was led lower by the large industries, while participants also digested earnings and a softer leading index.
Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 32,000 level as all major bourses suffered from the falling tide across stocks.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp remained pressured amid China growth concerns as recent poor data releases have prompted several banks to cut their growth forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy including JPMorgan which now anticipates 4.8% GDP growth for China this year, while the latest House Price data also showed a contraction Y/Y to add to the ongoing developer woes.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China reportedly asked some funds to avoid net equity sales as the market sinks, according to Bloomberg sources.
RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future and the current level of interest rates is constraining spending and hence inflation pressure, as anticipated and required. RBNZ also stated that headline inflation and inflation expectations have declined but measures of core inflation remain too high, as well as noted there is a risk in the near-term that activity and inflation measures do not slow as much as expected. Furthermore, it slightly raised OCR projections which is seen at 5.57% in September 2024 (prev. 5.43%) and at 5.50% in December 2024 (prev. 5.30%).
RBNZ Governor Orr said during the press conference that the rise in the OCR track is not forward guidance and is not a strong signal of their next move, while they are wary about doing too much on rates. Orr noted that risks in the next few months are that activity could be stronger than projected, while he responded that there will always be the risk of another rate hike as there is always the risk of a rate cut when asked if there are risks of another hike, and stated that they are very comfortable where the OCR is.

DATA RECAP

Chinese House Prices YY (Jul) -0.1% (Prev. 0.0%)
Australian Leading Index MM (Jul) -0.03% (Prev. 0.12%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.05 PTS OR 0.82% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 251.81 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 472.07 PTS OR 1.46% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.44 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2980 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3258 /Oil UP TO 80.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84.91 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA /

CHINA

China’s economy on the verge of collapse as their chief central banker calls for helicopter money

(zerohedge)

With China’s Economy On “Verge Of Collapse”, PBOC Central Banker Calls For Helicopter Money

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 09:43 PM

As Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds writes in the aftermath of last night’s unexpected Chinese rate cut, while the nation’s economic struggles were (finally) severe enough for the authorities to respond with their biggest interest-rate cut since the pandemic, it will be nowhere near powerful enough to help spark a turnaround.

For a start, Reynolds writes, that scope “is rather less impressive when you realize the reduction in the rate on one-year PBOC loans — or medium-term lending facility — was all of 15 basis points. Most central banks faced with the sort of slowdown China is facing might well decide to cut by three times as much or more.”

The real difficulty for China is that previous reductions haven’t done all that much to galvanize lending in order to stimulate activity; after all as we have discussed previously, one can’t fix a lack of demand problem with more supply (one can , however, create asset bubbles).

Furthermore, as we observed on Sunday, China’s new loans tumbled in July to the lowest since 2009…

…. and the PBOC’s ever-increasing interest-rate benchmarks were all at multi-year lows even before this month’s reduction.

Part of the reason for the lack of demand is the ongoing woes in the key property sector, though the situation also underscores concerns that China is tipping into a balance-sheet recession in which companies avoid fresh borrowings in order to service and pay down their existing debt.

As China slides into a Japan-style balance sheet recession and the resulting deflation – as recently discussed by Richard Ku – it is facing even bigger problems than just a garden-variety property and/or debt crisis.

Indeed, as Rabobank’s Michael Every cites the Economic Observer, a subsidiary of Xinhua News Agency, which published a newsletter titled “Finance Bureau Chiefs in the Past Half Year”, and which concluded that local government finances and the national economy are reportedly “on the verge of collapse, and the thunder will explode at any time.” To be sure, recent events ensure the coming collapse:

Country Garden just defaulted;
Zhongzhi Enterprise Group missed payments on high-yield investment products;
recent bank loan data were terrible;
and today saw industrial production 3.7% y-o-y (4.3% expected),
retail sales 2.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.0%),
fixed asset investment 3.4% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. 3.7%),
property sales -8.5% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. -8.1%),
and unemployment 5.3% vs. 5.2% (not to mention that youth unemployment which just hit all time highs, will no longer be reported for obvious reasons).

Summing it up, China “has fallen into a psycho-political funk,” says the FT, as its youth tell Soviet jokes again or say ‘let it rot’, and a high-earning Beijing worker is quoted as saving as much as he can to prepare for a property crash or a move against Taiwan.

So is there anything that could actually stop the bleeding in China from an economic or market perspective? Well, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes – and agrees with our assessment – the biggest reason why China is imploding in slow-motion is that that, as opposed to rest of world, Chinese authorities never responded with Fiscal transfer into pockets of individuals and businesses who were bled dry during the covid crisis.

Hence, the one thing that could truly “shock and awe” markets would be outright “helicopter drops” of money direct to households and businesses in order to stimulate DOA Chinese consumption.

Impossible you say, after all China has nearly 300% debt/gdp… only the terminal economic basket case that is Japan is higher.

Or maybe not: as Bloomberg writes today (see “PBOC Adviser Says China Urgently Needs to Boost Consumption”) Cai Fang, a member of the monetary policy committee at the PBoC, i.e. one of China’s top central bankers, warned that the top priority for policymakers is to stimulate household consumption:

Cai added in the article posted late Monday on a social media account of the China Finance 40 Forum, one of the nation’s top economic think tanks, that continued unemployment in the wake of the pandemic is crimping household spending and that consumer confidence is expected to weaken without new policies.

“The most urgent goal now is to stimulate household consumption, and it is necessary to use all reasonable, legally compliant and economic channels to put money in residents’ pockets,” said Cai, 66, one of the most well-known economists in China to focus on demography and labor economics.

The former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state think tank, joined the PBOC’s policy advisory body in early 2021, and has helped the government map five-year plans for economic and social development. In July, Cai called on officials to reform the household registration system to unleash the consumption potential of the nation’s large pool of migrant workers.Cai Fang

One can almost see why just hours later Beijing halted the publication of China’s youth unemployment data.

More importantly, however, Cai called for the inevitable helicopter drops to boost household consumption and aid the economic recovery:

He is among a group of economists who have called for providing direct stimulus to consumers to boost spending, a path that Beijing has so far been unwilling to follow. Earlier this year, Cai said direct stimulus of 4 trillion yuan ($551 billion) paid directly to Chinese households is an option to spur a recovery in consumer spending that has been slowed by weak wage growth during the pandemic.

And while China can probably pretend it can avoid what’s coming for a few more months, it is now just a matter of time before China joins the rest of the “developed” world in what Michael Hartnett recently called the “era of fiscal excess.”

After all, there is probably a reason why former PBOC governor, Yi Gang, who called for “economic prudence” and was against against massive stimulus, was recently “retired.”

See Cai’s full post from the China Finance 40 Forum here.

END

Giant Zhongrong (China’s Blackstone) defaults and is insolvent following home builder Country Garden. Zhongrong is owned by Zhongzhi also in default. The real estate mess inside China will now escalate

(zerohedge)

Furious Investors Protest Outside China’s Insolvent Shadow Banking Giant After It Misses Payments, Warns “Liquidity Has Suddenly Dried Up”

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 10:09 AM

Things are getting very ugly for both China’s so-called “China’s Blackstone“, and China in general.

Just days after we reported that the “secretive” shadow-banking giant, Zhongrong, also called “China’s Blackstone” as it manages (or rather managed) a massive 1 trillion in AUM, had missed payments on “multiple shadow banking (i.e. high-yield investment) products”, stoking fresh worries about contagion amid China’s deflationary pressures and, of course, a tottering real estate sector, which as a reminder is the largest asset class on earth…

… overnight Bloomberg reported that Zhongrong’s troubles have accelerated and the asset manager not only missed payments on dozens of products – adding to delays on at least 10 others since late July – but “has no immediate plan to make clients whole, indicating troubles at the embattled Chinese shadow bank are deeper than previously known.”

The troubles are so deep in fact, that Zhongrong – which is one of the largest players in China’s $3 trillion shadow banking industry – appears to be effectively insolvent: “the company doesn’t have an immediate plan to cover the payments since its short-term liquidity has suddenly dried up”, said Wang Qiang, board secretary of the firm partly owned by financial giant Zhongzhi Enterprise Group.

He added that the number of products with missed payments has risen and the company is facing a “tsunami” of questions from investors and their own wealth managers, according to the people familiar, who asked not to be identified because the meeting was private. Wang asked for patience as the firm seeks to recoup the value of its investments.

Unfortunately, investor patience has dried up and from a separate Bloomberg report we learn that furious Chinese investors protested outside the office of Zhongrong in “a rare show of public outrage after the firm skipped payments on dozens of investment products.”

Videos of the incident showed about two dozen protesters at Zhongrong International Trust Co., demanding payment on high-yield products that were pitched as safe investments. In one of the clips posted on Wechat seen by Bloomberg News, a woman angrily asks: “Why doesn’t the company pay us back?” she says. “It has already matured. Your financial statements said there is a profit.”

The company isn’t paying you back for one simple reason: it’s broke.

The protesters in Beijing were met by about 10 police and security officers, while a company official tried to keep the peace. One woman is heard shouting: “Give us the money back, or we will die here.” Another says: “Why you don’t give us a clear explanation?”

A reporter who visited the Zhongrong office Wednesday afternoon didn’t see any protesters but there was an unusually heavy police presence around the building.

Officers were seen sitting in several police vans and cars parked inside and outside the office compound, and other police vehicles were placed on roads nearby. Officers were also watching the area from inside one of the several city buses that were parked at the main gate or nearby. Workers were erecting extra fencing around the building.

The protests – not to mention the admission of insolvency – indicates that troubles at the embattled Chinese shadow bank are deeper than previously known, and underscore how the fallout from the real estate slump is spreading to the financial sector. Many trust products sold by Zhongrong and others are backed by housing projects run by troubled developers such as China Evergrande Group, which of course, is also broke.

And since at least 30 products are now overdue and Zhongrong has also halted redemptions on some short-term instruments, the investor fury will only grow.

Zhongrong is among the biggest firms in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which pools savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to make loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities. The firm has 270 high-yield products totaling 39.5 billion yuan ($5.4 billion) due this year, according to data provider Use Trust. Chinese authorities have already set up a task force to study any possible contagion from the shadow banking group, which manages about $138 billion. The firm said it has no immediate plans to make clients whole.

According to Bloomberg, the trust sector’s exposure to real estate is about 2.2 trillion yuan, or 10% of total assets as of the end of 2022. Zhongrong is the ninth-biggest trust, with about 600 billion yuan in assets.

“The big danger is that a negative feedback loop kicks in, with property stress causing strains in the financial system, undermining credit expansion and depressing growth, which, in turn, exacerbates the slump in the property sector,” Bloomberg Economics said in a note.

“The good news is that regulatory vigilance means a rerun of the 2008 U.S. crisis is unlikely,” Gavekal Dragonomics’ Xiaoxi Zhang wrote on Wednesday, unless of course a rerun of the 2008 crisis is imminent, especially if China doesn’t pursue helicopter money as a top PBOC banker has recommended.

“The bad news is that debt strains from property developers and local-government financing vehicles are spreading across China’s economy.”

“Given the recent net asset value markdowns and redemptions, we expect growth in trust products to slow, which could result in tighter property financing conditions, and affect banks’ earnings and balance sheets,” Goldman analyst Shuo Yang wrote in a note. Not that China can afford any tighter financial conditions or even more property turmoil…

And speaking of property turmoil, overnight China reported that new home prices fell in July for the first time this year, the latest in a string of downbeat data that underlines the urgency for bolder policy support. Prices fell 0.2% month-on-month on a nationwide basis and 0.1% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

But the picture is far worse outside of the country’s megacities like Shanghai and Beijing. Average new home prices in the 35 smallest cities surveyed by NBS fell for the 17th straight month in June on a year-on-year basis.

The worsening debt crisis at major developers including Country Garden, the country’s biggest private developer, has scared away many home buyers, with property investment, home sales and new construction contracting for more than a year.

Country Garden promised “five-star living” to the masses in less popular, smaller cities but focusing on those areas has come back to haunt it. Its plight has raised fears that its debt problems will ripple through the stalling economy. Given the property market has traditionally accounted for about a quarter of China’s economy, some analysts say the slump, combined with the shock from three years of strict COVID measures, has had an unprecedented impact on activity.

Most analysts expect further falls in home prices and sales over coming months.

Highlighting the difficulties facing policymakers, China’s property sector continues to struggle despite an extension of financial support for developers and incentives for first-time home buyers and upgraders.

Last month, China’s top leaders in a Politburo meeting vowed to adjust property policies. The housing regulator has also urged efforts to prop up the sector such as lower home mortgage rates and down payment ratios for first-time homebuyers and easing mortgage curbs for people who want to upgrade their homes.

Some cities including Zhengzhou have already relaxed a handful of property curbs. Provincial capitals like Xian and Fuzhou are considering reductions in downpayment ratios for residents who buy second flats.

“We continue to expect more housing easing measures in coming months, including further reduction in down-payment ratios and more relaxation of home purchase restrictions in large cities, among others,” economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.

However, most economists expect the property slump to drag on for some time.

“High-frequency data in early August does not suggest any meaningful improvement in the property market,” said Wang Tao, Head of Asia Economics and Chief China Economist at UBS Investment Bank.

“Without additional major policy easing and/or fiscal support, property sales and investment may weaken further or stay at the bottom for longer than assumed in our baseline,” said Wang.

end

Fitch warns China that they may reasses their A+ credit rating if they balloon their debt with its faltering economy

(zerohedge)

Fitch May Reassess China’s A+ Credit Rating If Debts Balloon As Economy Falters

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 07:45 AM

Confidence across China’s financial markets is declining by the week as the People’s Bank of China injected the largest amount of short-term cash since February, one day after it cut interest rates. We penned a note overnight titled With China’s Economy On “Verge Of Collapse,” PBOC Central Banker Calls For Helicopter Money, outlining the deteriorating conditions in the world’s second-largest economy. Now Fitch Ratings has warned it may reconsider China’s A+ sovereign credit rating should its non-government debt liabilities balloon.

“We might think again, because the debt-to-GDP ratio is a little bit on the high side for a single ‘A’ credit,” if China decides to expand its balance sheet to support the economy, James McCormack, global head of sovereigns, told Bloomberg TV, on Wednesday. He doesn’t expect an imminent downgrade but noted that an increase in corporate and banking sector debt could become “real liabilities for the government.”

McCormack continued, “So if it really does extend its balance sheet to support the economy — and I wouldn’t say we’re expecting that, certainly recent evidence doesn’t suggest that that will be the case — then we might think again because the debt to GDP ratio is a little bit on the high side for a single ‘A’ credit.”

On Sunday, China’s new loans tumbled in July to the lowest since 2009.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates on one-year loans — the medium-term lending facility — by around 15 bps to 2.5%, the most significant cut in three years. The move to stimulate the economy comes as the recovery appears to falter.

Rabobank’s Michael Every cites the Economic Observer, a subsidiary of Xinhua News Agency, which published a newsletter titled “Finance Bureau Chiefs in the Past Half Year,” and which concluded that local government finances and the national economy are reportedly “on the verge of collapse, and the thunder will explode at any time.” The dominos appear to be falling:

Country Garden just defaulted;
Zhongzhi Enterprise Group missed payments on high-yield investment products;
recent bank loan data were terrible;
and today saw industrial production 3.7% y-o-y (4.3% expected),
retail sales 2.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.0%),
fixed asset investment 3.4% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. 3.7%),
property sales -8.5% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. -8.1%),
and unemployment 5.3% vs. 5.2% (not to mention that youth unemployment which just hit all time highs, will no longer be reported for obvious reasons).

Evidently, the move to stimulate the economy suggests policymakers are in a panic. It’ll be more challenging than ever to stimulate the economy because of the country’s massive debt load. Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, noted, “Aside from helicopter money, nothing seems to be very effective so more aggressive actions will be needed to avert this downward momentum.”

And Fitch is taking notice as to why it appears McCormack was floating a trial balloon on Bloomberg today about the risks of a China downgrade if non-government debt liabilities worsen.

McCormack’s comments about China come weeks after ratings agency downgraded the US and warned major US banks are at risk of downgrades.

CHINA/

China is hiding reports of its flood damage

Bruce Wilds/Advancing TimeBlog)

China Busy Hiding Reports Of Flood Damage And Death

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 05:05 PM

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

Devastating reports of flood damage and death are trickling out of China. The country has just been hit with the largest flood it has seen in 140 years. This means the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has cranked up its propaganda machine to downplay the destruction and bury the devastating reports of damage and death. This includes fabricating stories of rescues and rapidly arriving to help the victims of the disaster.

In some ways, this could be viewed as a “Hurricane Katrina moment” for China’s leader Xi Jinping. It certainly represents an embarrassing failure of the Chinese government to protect its people. Hundreds of thousands of China’s citizens have lost everything and had their lives destroyed. Still, the government is more interested in quelling the protests of victims than providing help. For the leadership this is about saving face. It is also proof that when a government “makes the news,” it controls the news. This leaves the question of how bad the flooding has become.

It also highlights the fact that China’s system of damns has not tamed its rivers. In a video, Chris Chappell of China Uncensored reported that China’s northeast got some biblical-level flooding this month. Streets were turned into rivers, and rivers were turned into lakes. This unfolded so fast that most people had little or no warning. The capital was woefully unprepared for such a deluge. But what really has people angry is how the CCP handled it. China’s flood waters are washing up some nasty truths. The government has put itself and saving certain cities it values above the lives of the people in other less favored areas.

This includes creating levee breaks and discharging water to flood farmland and lesser cities to defend what the government values. China Insights claims that On August 10, the upper reaches of the Qing River in northern China’s Hebei Province had a dam break while flood levels downstream Tianjin were dropping. This has brought about speculation the authorities discharged flood water to Hebei in order to protect Tianjin. These officials led police teams and personally directed them to block the flood water exits to make sure the water stays in the farmland.

As far as Western media being able to get this story out, we get a big fail. An example of this is a Newsweek article focusing on dogs. It reports that according to Humane Society International (HSI), hundreds of dogs and several cats were saved by animal activists during the devastating floods. The article did, to its credit, mention that dozens of people have been killed in the floods and several more are still missing. It also took the focus off the disaster in China by pointing out Typhoon Doksuri sparked heavy rainfall in parts of the Philippines, Taiwan, China, and Vietnam, causing extensive damage to homes, crops, livestock, and infrastructure in those areas as well.

China Controls Its News And What Is Seen

A BBC article placed a “climate change” spin on the flooding and how the floods have claimed more than 60 lives so far. It also threw in a more personal human tragedy twist telling how ten–year-old Miao Chunyou screamed for her mum as she disappeared into a brown torrent that had engulfed western Beijing. The strong currents ripped Miao from her father’s grip as her mother, clinging to a tree branch watched helplessly. That was more than 10 days ago, and since then the couple has heard no news about their daughter.

One CNBC story focused on what this might do to the price of rice. It states global rice markets could come under further pressure as the world’s leading producer China grapples with heavy rain and flooding. It noted that China is the world’s largest producer of rice, and flooding hit three provinces that account for 23% of the country’s rice output. Unfortunately, the article fell short of telling the extent of the true devastation suffered in much of the area. This is not simply about lower rice yields.

On the other hand, UPI told the story the CCP propaganda machine dished out. It told of how 21 people are dead and another six are missing after heavy rain caused flooding and mudslides in China’s northwestern Shaanxi Province. And followed with tales of how more than 180 people have been evacuated from mountainside villages according to China’s state news agency Xinhua. It expanded on this telling how fourteen rescue teams with 980 rescuers were rapidly dispatched to lead the evacuation effort and repair infrastructure. It also reported that three heavily damaged sections of National Highway 210 have been repaired and power has been restored to more than 850 homes, the Global Times reports.

The Situation Is Worse Than Reported

The reality is that this situation is far worse than reported and a huge number of lives have been lost, and little real help has arrived in most areas. The China Observer points out in another video that as the flood water begins to recede the real pain and hardships people face will move front and center. Besides the economic devastation, the damage to the farmland in rural areas is severe. Videos show the aftermath of the floods in Diaowo town, with most fields submerged in water, houses, and greenhouses destroyed by the floods. Everywhere field pathways are blocked by fallen trees and littered with garbage and cars washed in by the floodwaters.

It appears the loss of life may well be in the thousands but we will never know. Under the CCP’s rule, the authorities prioritized protecting Beijing and Xiong’an, sacrificing the lives and well-being of the people of Hebei Zhuozhou. The efforts of many families spanning decades or even generations have been washed away in these floods. Sadly, many of these people know that even when the CCP states that money has been shifted to provide aid, corrupt officials have a way of stealing most of it before it reaches its destination.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/NIGER/WEST

Putin is entering Western Africa which is generally the West’s sphere of influence

(zerohedge)

West Alarmed As Putin Has Begun To Mediate Niger Coup Crisis

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Western nations are alarmed at the prospect of Russia deepening its presence and influence in West and Central Africa, particularly following the tumult in Niger late last month, which culminated in the July 26 coup against democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

The West-friendly group of surrounding nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has since threatened military intervention towards restoring Bazoum, and there have been persistent rumors that France is encouraging concrete action. Mali has played a key role in all of this given it stands on the other side, and is dead set against any interference in Niger, with fresh reports that Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone.

Goita announced that in the Tuesday call Putin “stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution of the situation for a more stable Sahel” – and the sides confirmed it was initiated by Mali.

According to a Kremlin statement, “The parties specifically focused on the current situation in the Sahara-Sahel region and emphasised, in particular, the importance of settling the situation in the Republic of Niger solely through peaceful political and diplomatic means.”

Putin separately told Tuesday’s Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS) that “The countries of the Sahara-Sahel region, such as the Central African Republic and Mali, were under direct attack from numerous terrorist groups after the US and its allies unleashed aggression against Libya, which led to the collapse of the Libyan state.”

The handful of regional supporters of the Niger junta have emphasized the same point of late…

Niger is known for having uranium, but it is the significant gold and oil resources which likely of greater interest to the large powers of Russia, China, the US, and Europe.

The West’s concern is likely to grow given Putin’s mediation with Mali’s leadership. Russia’s Wagner Group also has an extensive presence across the African continent, having long had security and counterterrorism contracts with multiple governments.

So far, there’s still not been openness to negotiations on the part of the Niger coup leaders and Bazoum remains under hose arrest. Per the latest update in Reuters, “West African army chiefs will meet on Thursday and Friday in Ghana to prepare for a possible military intervention, which the main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened to launch if diplomacy fails.”

Any external military intervention could spark a broader war across the Sahel, and would also be seized upon by regional terrorist groups. In this scenario Wagner fighters would likely enter the fray.

END

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

end

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//

* * *

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

-END-

DR PAUL ALEXANDER..

BREAKING: LATAM Captain (56 years) Dies during flight (Boeing 787) from Miami! Flight LA 505 from Miami to Santiago Chile diverted to Panama city, pilot collapsed & died in toilet! mRNA vaccine? ssshh

Should we ask if the mRNA technology COVID gene based injection from Pfizer or Moderna caused ‘silent’ asymptomatic myocarditis & scarred his heart & cardiac arrest? Can we ask? Weissman? Kariko?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 16

https://www.aeroinside.com/18462/latam-b789-near-panama-city-on-aug-14th-2023-captain-incapacitated#

end

‘Heart attack hospitalisations at record level since pandemic’ (figures for England show); this is the collateral damage (& in America, Canada etc.) due to the inept unscientific governments shutting

hospitals, clinics, doctor access whereby for 2 solid years all beds were ‘COVID’ beds & thus people with rudiments of heart disease, cancer, diabetes are now advanced in disease, paying the price

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 16

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/heart-attack-hospitalisations-at-record-level-since-pandemic/ar-AA1fhRfJ

END

(HARVEY: THIS VARIANT IS QUITE WEAK//THE ONE TO WATCH FOR IS THE FL 1.1.5)

‘Scientists demand Britons wear face masks as new Covid variant BA.X spreads’; what a load of specious drivel, garbage, they all know, SAGE, CDC, NIH, FDA, Health Canada, PHAC that masks are JUNK,

never worked & harmful! Not one mask, none, not even N95 worked to curb COVID transmission or death, nothing, not for this & they know it; where mask mandates implemented, infection went up!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 16

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1802588/covid-face-masks-variant

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Nobel Prize-Winning Scientist Signs Declaration: ‘There Is No Climate Emergency’A world-renowned, Nobel Prize-winning scientist has joined hundreds of other leading experts and academics in signing the World Climate Declaration (WCD).READ MORE

Fulton County Court Busted Telling Huge Lie That Could Sink Case against Trump Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s charges against President Donald Trump were accidentally posted to the Fulton County Clerk of Courts website on Monday before being quickly removed again.READ MORE

Calls Grow to Indict Hillary Clinton, Obama and Biden for ‘Russia Collusion Hoax’ after GA Charges Drop A Georgia grand jury indicted President Donald Trump last night, charging him with felony racketeering and numerous conspiracy charges.READ MORE

Jenna Ellis Responds after Getting Indicted in Get-Trump Case: ‘Democrats Are Criminalizing the Practice of Law’Jenna Ellis, a lawyer for President Donald Trump, has issued a heartbreaking statement after getting hit with charges by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.READ MORE

Hillary Clinton: Trump ‘Set Out to Defraud’ America Twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton struggled to contain her glee as she bashed President Donald Trump on Rachel Maddow’s MSNBC show.READ MORE

Alan Dershowitz Responds to GA Charges: ‘We’re Seeing the Constitution Being Frittered Away for Partisan Political Purposes’Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz has called out Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over the RICO charges she’s filed against President Donald Trump and many of his advisers.READ MORE

Georgia DA Charges Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, John Eastman, Sidney Powell, Jeffrey Clark A Georgia grand jury has indicted President Donald Trump, charging the 45th POTUS with felony racketeering and numerous conspiracy charges.READ MORE

Facebook Bans Ads for Mark Levin’s Anti-Democrat Book before It Goes on Sale Facebook’s parent company Meta has banned ads across its social media apps for Mark Levin’s new book before it has even gone on sale.READ MORE

‘Woke’ Activist Attacks DeSantis Supporter, Gets Rude Awakening from Cop Who Witnessed Assault A “woke” activist got a rude awakening after physically assaulting a supporter of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa.READ MORE

Oliver Anthony Reads Bible to Huge Crowd in First Show since Anti-D.C Swamp Song Went Viral Blue-collar singer-songwriter Oliver Anthony performed in front of a huge overflowing crowd at a farmers’ market over the weekend.READ MORE

Fani Willis Makes Huge Mistake, Court May Throw Out Anti-Trump Case before It Starts Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has made such a huge mistake in her case against President Donald Trump that the Georgia court may throw it out before it even gets started.READ MORE

Enes Kanter Freedom Blasts Transgender Athletes: ‘Should I Put on a Wig and Start Dominating the WNBA?’Former NBA star Enes Kanter Freedom has blasted the idea of biological male transgender athletes competing in female sports, warning that “men don’t belong in women’s spaces.”READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

Top Senator Blows Whistle: Covid Was ‘Planned’ by ‘Very Powerful Group’A top U.S. senator has blown the whistle on a “very powerful group of people” who “planned” the Covid pandemic.READ THE FULL REPORT

Hunter Biden’s Attorneys Claim President’s Son Still Has ‘Broad Immunity’ Despite Plea Deal Falling Apart In a recent court document, attorneys representing Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, have made the case that a section of a previously unsuccessful plea agreement with federal prosecutors should remain intact, citing that “a judge’s approval was never needed to handle a gun possession charge through a diversion program.” Lawyers for Hunter Biden stated that the prosecutors didn’t honor the …READ THE FULL REPORT

Georgia Court Publishes Trump Indictment Document Before Grand Jury Even Decides Case Georgia state prosecutors seemed to have filed charges against Donald Trump, which included accusations of a conspiracy to “forge documents.”READ THE FULL REPORT

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Ringing Hollow

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 09:20 AM

By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The UK’s pivotal role in European finance means its economic data has a habit of punching above its weight in swaying sentiment. Tuesday’s labor market data jolted markets too, overshadowing the dovish Chinese numbers. Regular pay jumped to 7.8% year-over-year in the three months through June. Although part of the increase reflects prior months’ revisions, it did rekindle speculation of Bank of England tightening to as high as 6%, well beyond the one final hike to 5.50% we have pencilled in for September. With UK wages rising so rapidly, doubt was being cast on imminent Fed and ECB pauses as well.

However, we would caveat this. The other, timelier elements of the report suggest a cooling market, reassuring the BoE its historic pace of hikes does have an impact on demand. The goal is to return to the pre-pandemic climate with ideal labour market conditions: not too hot for employers or too cold for employees. Labour demand – which we proxy by adding vacancies to actual employment – is now down year-over-year to 33.96 million, while labour supply is up to 34.37 million. A margin between supply and demand of double this size, so around 750,000, is historically consistent with 3-4% wage growth, so things would probably have looked very different if there wasn’t a Of course, the price of this labour market rebalancing is paid by those who enter unemployment: the headline rate rose to 4.2% in the three months to June, with the single-month rate for June even at 4.7%. This is up from 3.5% in June 2022. So while pay checks are getting fatter on average, the swelling jobless ranks and rising illness mean higher wages ring hollow for some. On that note, this great tune right out of the Appalachian hollers is exploding on the internet, with 14 million views in a week, and should speak to many UK folks as well. Listen closely!

The UK inflation data that was out this morning was slightly hotter than expected. The slowing of the annual inflation rate in July 2023 to 6.8% from 7.9% was primarily due to lower regulated gas and electricity prices, which subtracted 0.64 percentage points from the rate, and notable downward impacts from food and non-alcoholic beverages, specifically milk, bread and cereals. However, core CPI steadied at 6.9% (vs. expected 6.8%), as falling costs of goods were offset by higher prices for services. Services inflation itself rose to 7.5% y/y from 7.2% y/y. This component matters most to the Bank of England, as it closely relates to domestic wages, exhibits persistent trends, and is less volatile than energy or goods prices. Our estimates of embedded inflation are around 6-7% y/y as well. All in all, there remains considerable evidence to support another interest rate hike in September, though there will be another labour market and inflation report that MPC meeting.

So even as global bond yields popped higher on the UK’s wage numbers, they have actually fallen a bit over a 24-hour view. This is despite very strong US retail sales data, which showed a better than expected 0.7% monthly increase in July. The usual caveat is that retail sales are presented in dollar values rather than volumes, but with goods prices under pressure, real retail sales likely rose around 1% month-over-month in July. Consequentially, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts 5.0% instead of 4.1% GDP growth for Q3, which may be optimistic but still indicates solid growth despite significantly higher interest rates.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates steady at 5.50% this morning, after having paused its hiking cycle in May. However, the RBNZ signalled that rates would remain restrictive for a prolonged period, even showing a slightly higher path for the Official Cash Rate in its forecasts.

This indicates some possibility of a further hike to 5.75%, which arguably had the more important effect of pushing the pricing of rate cuts out to 2025. As an early leader in post-pandemic tightening, the RBNZ tends to be seen as the ‘kiwi’ in the coal mine. Though recent data points to softening economic momentum in New Zealand, there are also risks that it could take longer for inflation pressures to abate. The Bank of Canada nods in the background, having failed in pausing its hiking cycle and now seeing Canada’s inflation reaccelerating to 3.3% from 2.8% year-over-year. There was a modest slowing in the trimmed core CPI measure to 3.6%

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0917 UP 0.0013

USA/ YEN 145.73 UP 0.111 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2736 UP 0.0034

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3493 UP .0003 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.05 PTS OR 0.82%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 251.8 PTS OR 1.36%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.44 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 251.88 PTS OR 1.36%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.05 PTS OR 0.82%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.44%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 472.07 PTS OR 1.46

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1905.15

silver:$22.68

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.99 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.372% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.617% DOWN 0 AND 2//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.692 DOWN 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.339 DOWN1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6445 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0904 UP 0.0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 145.79 UP 0.181 OR YEN DOWN 18 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2749 UP 0.0050 OR 50 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3518

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2955

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3277)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.06 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.617…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.202% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.318 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 33.99 POINTS or 0.46%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 20.07 PTS OR 0.13%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 9.74 PTS OR 0.13%

Spain IBEX UP 5.80 PTS OR 0.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 253.14 PTS OR 0.89%

WTI Oil price 80.82 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.74 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 94.68; ROUBLE UP 2 AND 40//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6445 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.674 UP 4 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0872 DOWN 0.0032 OR 32 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2714 UP .0013 or 13 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6890 % UP 4 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .632%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.37 UP 0.744 //YEN DOWN 74 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3543 UP .0053 CDN dollar,DOWN 53 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 79.40

Brent OIL: 83.19

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.280%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.377%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.982%

USA dollar index: 103.40 UP 30 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.07 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 94.66 UP 2 AND 42/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 180.58 PTS OR 0.52%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 161.18 PTS OR1.07%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.56 UP 0.16 PTS (0.61)%

GLD: $175.57 DOWN 1.02 OR 0.58%

SLV/ $20.56 DOWN ,11 OR 0.53%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Stocks, Bonds, & Commodities Crumble As Dollar Rips On Hawkish Fed Minutes

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Better than expected industrial production and a bigger than expected rise in housing starts lifted the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecast for Q3 growth to 5.8% (but the St.Louis Fed’s GDPNOWCast is not at all impressed)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is that what The Fed is hoping for from its tightening? While September odds were unchanged today, the market’s expectations for year-end are hawkishly on the rise…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s Minutes were decidedly hawkish (with the most hawkish sentences since January according to Bloomberg’s NLP model)…

Source: Bloomberg

And that weighed on everything with stocks, bonds, and commodities lower while the dollar rallied.

Nasdaq and Small Caps were the day’s biggest laggards but all the US majors were ugly with the market’s negative gamma very evident into the close…

The Nasdaq 100 broke below 15,000 to its lowest since June (almost 7% off the highs)…

The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed below their 50DMAs (The Dow remains above its)…

Cyclicals continued to underperform Defensives as the ‘overshoot’ in growth expectations is reversing fast (but has a long way to go)…

Source: Bloomberg

Regional bank stocks extended their recent losses…

Treasury yields were higher on the day across the curve with the longer-end underperforming (2Y +2bps, 10Y +6bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Yield closed at its highest since Oct ’22…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield pushed up towards 5.00% today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended its recent gains today (the 5th straight day higher) to its highest close since May 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin puked back below $29k intraday but found support and got back above…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil (WTI) fell back below $80 to two-week lows, but remains well off the June lows…

Gold (spot) broke below $1900 to its lowest close since March….

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, NVDA bounced (as expected) and stalled today (as expected)… what’s next?

And September is coming…

The median return for S&P since 1928 is -1.56%, September is the worst month of the year.

b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MINUTES

FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Fed Fears “Significant Upside Risks To Inflation”

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 02:05 PM

Since the last FOMC meeting (on July 26, when The Fed delivered the expected 25bps hike and almost unchanged statement), the dollar has rallied aggressively while bonds, bullion, and big-tech have been battered. Bitcoin is basically unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, in equity-land, after an initial rise, we have seen cyclicals underperform defensives since the last FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

The market’s expectations for The Fed are basically unchanged since the last FOMC meeting, having initially dropped dovishly, they have recently revived hawkishly…

Source: Bloomberg

But bond yields have been hammered higher, led by the long-end…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the curve has steepened (de-inverted) dramatically

Source: Bloomberg

So what can we expect to see in today’s FOMC Minutes? Not much, to be frank; however traders will be looking for any commentary on how the Fed assesses growth dynamics; given that inflation is slowly inching back down towards target, many expect the Fed to pivot policy, and eventually begin cutting rates to support the economy.

Fed signals it’s likely not finished raising interest rates with this key quote:

“Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy”

But, there are Downside risks:

“In discussing downside risks to economic activity and inflation, participants considered the possibility that the cumulative tightening of monetary policy could lead to a sharper slowdown in the economy than expected, as well as the possibility that the effects of the tightening of bank credit conditions could prove more substantial than anticipated.”

Minutes don’t give a definitive steer on the next rate decision in September, saying future moves “should depend on the totality” of incoming information and its implications for the outlook.

On Inflation:

Participants noted the recent reduction in total and core inflation rates. However, they stressed that inflation remained unacceptably high and that further evidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation was clearly on a path toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.

…

Although inflation had moderated since the middle of last year, it remained well above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent, and participants remained resolute in their commitment to bring inflation down to the Committee’s 2 percent objective. Amid these economic conditions, almost all participants judged it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5¼ to 5½ percent at this meeting.

Participants noted that this action would put the stance of monetary policy further into restrictive territory, consistent with reducing demand–supply imbalances in the economy and helping to restore price stability.

On ‘core’ inflation (ex-food, energy and housing), a key sector they’re watching:

“Nonetheless, several participants commented that significant disinflationary pressures had yet to become apparent in the prices of core services excluding housing.”

On Economic activity:

Participants continued to view a period of below-trend growth in real GDP and some softening in labor market conditions as needed to bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and reduce inflation pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

Which is odd given that The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecast is now at +5.8% for Q3 GDP.

No more recession:

The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. Since the emergence of stress in the banking sector in mid-March, indicators of spending and real activity had come in stronger than anticipated; as a result, the staff no longer judged that the economy would enter a mild recession toward the end of the year.

However, the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level.

On the Labor Market:

The labor market remained very tight, though the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market was gradually diminishing.

On the Banking system:

… while the overall banking system retained ample loss-bearing capacity, some banks experienced sizable declines in the fair value of their assets as a consequence of rising interest rates.

Vulnerabilities associated with funding risks were also characterized as notable. Although a small number of banks saw notable outflows of deposits late in the first quarter and early in the second quarter, deposit flows later stabilized.

Finally, we note that only 2 of the 18 members wanted to hold rates…

A couple of participants indicated that they favored leaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that they could have supported such a proposal.

They judged that maintaining the current degree of restrictiveness at this time would likely result in further progress toward the Committee’s goals while allowing the Committee time to further evaluate this progress

end

II) USA DATA/

USA gas prices surge again and this will have a major impact on CPI going forward

(zerohedge)

US Gas Pump-Prices Surge To 10-Month-Highs

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 06:45 PM

At a time when gasoline prices – on average – should be falling, US pump prices are soaring (up seven weeks in a row – the longest streak since June 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

And while drivers benefited from the relative cheap prices as the summer driving season began, they are now facing pressures as the national average price in within pennies of its highest in a year (and given the surge in WTI Crude and wholesale gasoline prices – which tend to lead retail prices by one-to-two weeks – things are about to get a whole lot more painful again…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which is a major problem for ‘inflation’ as CPI’s gasoline component is set to explode next month…

Source: Bloomberg

“While July CPI [Consumer Price Index] data looked pretty good with energy prices well below their year-ago level, August data isn’t going to look nearly as friendly,” warned Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

What will Joe do? Return to draining the SPR again? Complain to the Saudis (and be ignored)? Blame “Big Oil” again?

We wonder what ’emergency’ he will blame this release on?

end

As expected, USA building permits stagnant as mortage rates top 7%

(zerohedge)

US Building Permits Stagnant In July As Mortgage Rates Topped 7%

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 08:40 AM

After last month’s surprisingly large declines, Housing Starts and Building Permits were expected to rebound modestly in July data released today (still losing altitude from May’s major surge). However, the picture was more mixed with starts rising 3.9% MoM (vs +1.1% exp), but that was impacted by a notable downward revision in June (from -8.0% to -11.7%). Building Permits rose just 0.1% MoM (well below the 1.5% MoM expected).

Source: Bloomberg

On a SAAR basis, Permits disappointed (1.442mm vs 1.463mm exp) while Starts were in line at 1.452mm (up from a significantly downwardly-revised 1.398mm in June)….

Source: Bloomberg

On the Permits side, single-family rose as multi-family fell:

Single-family up to 930K from 924K, highest since June 2022
Multi-family down to 464K from 465K, lowest since Oct 2020

July Housing Starts data followed the same trajectory with rental units growth underperforming single-family:

single-family housing up 6.7% to 983K, up from 921K, highest since May
multi-family housing unch at 460K, tied for lowest since July 2022

Additionally, we note that while Housing Starts and Completions remain well off their 2022 highs, Construction Jobs remain very close to those highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Mortgage Bankers Association data released earlier this morning showed applications for home purchases dropped again last week (back near 1996 lows) as the contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage surged above 7.1% (highest since Dec 2001).

end

Nothing to write home about: USA production still lower y/y/

(zerohedge)

Despite Rebound, US Industrial Production Remains Lower Year-Over-Year

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 09:38 AM

Thanks to some sizable downward revisions in prior months, US Industrial Production rebounded strongly in July, rising 1.0% MoM (considerably better than the 0.3% MoM expected). However, thanks to the downward revisions, industrial production remains down 0.25% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

For the fifth straight month, US manufacturing output is lower year-over-year, despite a 0.5% MoM rebound in July…

Source: Bloomberg

So, Bidenomics is working? And a year on from the Inflation Reduction Act’s enactment, US manufacturing output is lower.

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

MAUI/HAWAII

Destruction!

(zerohedge)

‘Raped And Pillaged’: Maui Fire Survivors Describe Nighttime Looting, Botched Supply Drops

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 11:45 PM

The tragic disaster that we just witnessed in Hawaii should break all of our hearts.

The death count just keeps going up, and it is being reported that these were the deadliest fires in the United States in more than 100 years.

In addition, Hawaii Governor Josh Green is telling us that this was actually “the largest natural disaster” that his state has ever experienced. More than 2,700 structures have been burned down in Lahaina alone, and it is being estimated that the value of the property that has been destroyed is over 5 billion dollars.

But, there are some stories that are not making the evening news.

As Insider.com reports, Maui residents are becoming increasingly desperate for local leadership to take control of the emergency response to the catastrophic fires that leveled parts of the Hawaiian island and left at least 93 dead.

While rescue crews made their way across the island with water, food, and first aid, locals told Insider supply drops were being rerouted and anguished residents were taking matters into their own hands.

“There’s some police presence. There’s some small military presence, but at night, people are being robbed at gunpoint,” Matt Robb, a co-owner of a Lāhainā bar called The Dirty Monkey, told Insider.

“People are raped and pillaged. I mean, they’re going through houses – and then by day, it’s hunky-dory. So where is the support? I don’t think our government and our leaders, at this point, know how to handle this or what to do.”

The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported a riot nearly broke out between police and about 100 residents after officers closed off access to a highway leading to Lāhainā, one of the hardest-hit areas on the island, preventing people from returning home to gather items that could be salvaged.

Members of the staff of The Dirty Monkey said they had been coordinating with local authorities and community members, organizing and trying to direct supply drops and shipments of essential medications such as insulin to families in need.

Kami Irwin, a Maui resident helping to coordinate relief efforts at the Maui Brewing Co. location in Kihei, told Insider that locals were working around the clock, forgoing sleep and creating neighborhood patrols to help keep each other safe and find essentials such as clean drinking water and medications.

Residents told Insider they believed the mayor, who has offered limited public comments regarding the tragedy, had floundered in response to the emergency.

“I think it’s the mayor’s fault,” Aivazian said.

“If he would’ve asked, they had Marines, Coast Guards sitting there waiting, ready to go, and he didn’t send them over. Why wouldn’t the feds send them over? The mayor didn’t ask and the governor didn’t push. I mean, what the hell are they doing over there? They’re just hanging out at the beach.”

How/why is this happening?!

We have never seen anything quite like this before, and, as Michael Snyder remarks, the following are 8 questions that we should all be asking about the fires in Hawaii right now…

#1 How did the fires start? Governor Green is convinced that they were caused by a confluence of factors. Do you buy his explanation?…

Echoing wildfire experts, Gov. Green said Friday that he believes a confluence of weather conditions contributed to the ignition and spread of the blazes.

“It is a product, in my estimation, of certainly global warming combined with drought, combined with a super storm, where we had a hurricane offshore several hundred miles, still generating large winds,” Green told CNN.

#2 How did the fires spread so rapidly? According to multiple news reports, people were literally jumping into the ocean to escape because the fires were moving so rapidly…

With fires raging on Maui, two men felt there was nowhere to escape the flames – except for the ocean.

The two men live in Lahaina, a historic part of Maui loved by tourists, which appears to be heavily damaged by this week’s raging fire. They described a terrifying scene as they evacuated from Prison Street, right in the heart of Lahaina.

“I saw a couple people just running, I heard screams out of hell … explosions. It felt like we were in hell, it really was. It was just indescribable,” one of the men told Nexstar’s KHON.

#3 How did a fire that was supposedly “out” end up causing the most damage of all? According to Governor Green, the Lahaina fire was supposedly given new energy “by far-off Hurricane Dora”…

After first erupting early Tuesday, the fire was initially deemed to be out, but winds whipped up by far-off Hurricane Dora that reached up to 81 mph fanned the flames and spurred the blaze to travel about 1 mile every minute, Green said.

#4 According to U.S. Representative Jill Tokuda, the alarm system that is supposed to warn residents that a disaster is happening appears to have failed. How is that possible?…

We know everybody who’s ever lived in Hawaii knows the warning sirens. It goes off once a month at the beginning of the month at 12 noon, and it blares and if it doesn’t, it gets fixed, because that is our first line of defense. Unfortunately, in this situation, sadly, tragically in this situation, those sirens likely did not go off. The warning signals that were on cell phones, we had no cell coverage or electricity in some of these areas. And the reality is with those warning signs, it tells all of us to turn on the television or look at our phones or turn on the radio. The reality is was how fast this burn was. And you could see it in the videos that survivors were showing me. You could see it in the wreckage. If you turned on your phone, you turned on a radio, if you even could. Remember things were out at that particular point, you would not know what the crisis was.

#5 Why are emergency supplies not getting to the people that desperately need them? It is being reported that a “telecommunications blackout” has been one of the factors that has been hampering relief efforts…

But an enduring telecommunications blackout hampered government and grassroots efforts to distribute those supplies in the worst-affected neighborhoods, especially for an unknown number of survivors waiting out the aftermath in the few buildings still standing in the historic town of Lahaina and neighborhoods on the outskirts.

With their vehicles burned to a crisp, some sheltering at home have no way to drive to distribution centers miles away, or their cars have run out of gas. Others simply don’t know where to go for help. Toxic fumes and downed power lines with live wires make venturing outdoors dangerous.

#6 Why are people that have just had their homes burned down in the fires already being bombarded with calls with offers to purchase their properties?

The vultures are circling, and it appears that there are some people out there that are extremely interested in scooping up land inexpensively.

#7 Why has the FBI moved a “mobile refrigerated morgue” into Lahaina?…

A mobile refrigerated morgue has been brought to the devastated town of Lahaina as Maui officials continue their search for victims of the worst U.S. wildfire in 100 years.

The death toll on Sunday rose to 96, but Hawaii officials said it was likely to rise significantly.

John Pelletier, the Maui police chief, said only three percent of Lahaina – home to more than 9,000 people – had been searched so far.

#8 Why is Joe Biden lounging on the beach while all of this is happening?…

Outraged Americans blasting President @JoeBiden after he said ‘no comment’ when asked about the catastrophic Maui wildfire, now the deadliest US blaze in over a century. Despite the death toll climbing to about 100, Americans were outraged that Biden remained sunbathing on a beach near his Delaware home.

How can Biden be sunbathing on a beach while such tragedy is unfolding in Hawaii?

I don’t understand it.

This country has experienced so many great tragedies over the past few years, and it is inevitable that there will be many more in the years ahead.

When disaster strikes, we need a leader in the White House that knows how to act appropriately.

Those that have lost so much in these fires need our support and our prayers.

Hawaii will never be quite the same after this, and the people of the state deserve to get some answers to the very pressing questions that they are asking right now.

END

OAKLAND CALIFORNIA

Another Soros failed DA

(zerohedge)

Oakland’s ‘Soros’ DA Faces Chopping Block As Recall Effort Kicks Off

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 11:25 PM

Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, whose jurisdiction includes the crime-ridden city of Oakland, has become the latest ‘Soros’-funded DA to face a recall, after several groups have called out the rampant violence and lack of response.Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price in a county office building on Wednesday, April 13, 2023, in Oakland, Calif. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group)

A recap of recent headlines:

On Tuesday, members of a “Save Alameda for Everyone” (SAFE) filed a Notice of Intent with Alameda County officials to begin the recall process, following years of inaction by Price.

“As crime spirals out of control on Alameda County streets, DA Price reduces sentencing for criminals and even refuses to charge violent felons with crimes,” reads a statement from the group which cites Oakland PD statistics stating that homicides are up 80% vs. pre-pandemic figures, and violent crime and burglaries are up 15% and 40% respectively over the same period.

“African Americans are disproportionately hit the hardest by crime in East Oakland,” the group states, per KRON. “Women have been beaten and robbed by youths; hate crimes against Asian Americans are surging; street vendors have been assaulted, and basic services are under attack.”

The recall, organizers say, is a community-led effort comprised of “residents, business owners, survivors, and family members of victims that demand justice and a return of law and order to Alameda County.”

DA Price has addressed the recall effort and likened its organizers to those that stormed the U.S. Capitol to try and prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 election.

“In what appears to be a page out of the January 6th playbook, outside special interest groups, supported by the Republican Party, are trying to seize control from local voters because they refuse to accept the results of a legitimate, democratic election to remove the status quo,” said Price’s campaign in a statement.

Boy did Soros get his money’s worth!

END

SAN FRANCISO

Retailers are abandoning SF in droves

(zerohedge)

Watch: San Francisco Retailers Are Abandoning The City In Droves

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 08:45 PM

Remember when San Francisco officials and the media denied that retailers were leaving metro areas? Then they claimed that the businesses leaving were not leaving because of rising crime? Remember when the government tried to institute a law which would allow them to continue taxing people and businesses up to ten years after they moved out of the state? Remember when CNN reporters did a story on the crime epidemic in San Francisco and they got robbed in the process? It’s hard to hide the economic consequences of bad policies and ignorant ideology – Eventually, the effects become undeniable.

The establishment media continues to suggest the pandemic is the primary cause of the decay, but residents of San Francisco disagree. The majority of people mention crime and widespread drug use in the streets as the threat destroying the once vibrant retail environment. It’s over for San Francisco – And as the saying goes, if you’re looking for someone to blame, the fish rots from the head down.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-san-francisco-retailers-are-abandoning-city-droves

END

LOS ANGELES

just look at what is going on in Los Angeles

(EpochTimes)

‘Flash-Mob’ Daytime Burglaries Strike Southern California Stores

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 07:05 PM

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A second daytime “flash-mob” burglary in Los Angeles County over the weekend that cost a luxury department $300,000 may be related to a similar burglary four days earlier in Glendale, according to the Los Angeles Police Department.Police officers search for a suspect in Los Angeles on May 7, 2018. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

At about 4 p.m. Aug. 12, more than 30 suspects wearing hoodies and ski masks, some carrying knives, swarmed the Nordstrom department store located in the Westfield Topanga Mall in Canoga Park, and stole about $300,000 worth of merchandise before running out of the store and entering several vehicles, according to police.

The incident is similar to another flash-mob theft that occurred Aug. 8 at a Glendale shopping center about 45 minutes away.

“We’re working with law enforcement partners throughout the county, to assist each other,” Los Angeles Police Department spokesman Sgt. Bruce Borihanh told The Epoch Times. “Maybe they’re the same [suspects] or maybe they’re not.”

A viral video of the Nordstrom burglary shows members of the group running around the store grabbing clothing, handbags, and other items. Investigators are looking at surveillance video to see if they can identify license plates on the cars, Borihanh said.

The incident lasted about two minutes, according to Mr. Borihanh.

“They targeted handbags and high-end stuff they know they can sell,” he said.Los Angeles Police Department spokesman Sgt. Bruce Borihanh speaks to news reporters outside the Nordstrom store at the Westfield Topanga Mall in Los Angeles on Aug. 14, 2023. On Saturday, the store was ransacked by more than 30 suspects who stole about $300,000 in handbags and other merchandise. (Jill McLaughlin/The Epoch Times)

One of the store’s security guards was sprayed with bear spray—which is similar to pepper spray—during the burglary. He was treated at the scene and recovered, according to police.

An LAPD officer was deployed at the mall Monday, but an increased presence is not planned.

Instead, LAPD is collaborating with retailers, security, and other law enforcement to prevent future incidents, according to Mr. Borihanh.

“The LAPD doesn’t have the manpower to patrol the mall,” he said.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass called the incident “unacceptable,” in a statement released Saturday.

“Those who committed these acts and acts like it in the neighboring areas must be held accountable. The Los Angeles Police Department will continue to work to not only find those responsible for this incident but to prevent these attacks on retailers from happening in the future,” she said.

‘I’m Helpless’: Mall Security Guard

Mall security guard Kevin Johnson was working at the time of the burglary and saw the aftermath of what happened, he said.

“They’re hooligans,” Mr. Johnson told The Epoch Times.

Theft regularly occurs at the mall, and he said he expects it to happen again.

Mr. Johnson does not carry a firearm and said he is not allowed to confront suspected thieves.

“If I see you stealing. I can’t even do anything. I can’t touch you. I can’t try to stop you. I’m helpless,” he said.Nordstrom store at the Westfield Topanga Mall in the Canoga Park neighborhood in Los Angeles on Aug. 14, 2023. (Jill McLaughlin/The Epoch Times)

This was the second time the Nordstrom location was targeted by organized crime in the past two years. In 2021, the store was burglarized the day before Thanksgiving by five people. The thieves stole several expensive handbags before fleeing in a car. Similar to last week’s event, the security guard was also sprayed with a chemical by the suspects, according to news reports.

The LAPD is working with the Glendale Police Department to see if the same suspects were involved in the burglary in that city four days earlier.

The Glendale theft also occurred during daylight hours—just before 5 p.m.—when at least 30 suspects entered a Yves Saint Laurent store at The Americana at Brand shopping center.

The suspects stole clothing and other merchandise before fleeing on foot and in numerous cars. The estimated loss was also about $300,000, according to the Glendale Police Department.

The owner of the shopping center, Rick Caruso—who ran for Los Angeles mayor in 2022 and lost—has offered a reward of $50,000 for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the suspects, according to a Glendale Police Department press release.

“This type of criminal activity will not be tolerated in Glendale,” Glendale Police Chief Manny Cid said in the release. “Expect an elevated police presence in and around the downtown Glendale corridor.”

Further south in Irvine, California, police are looking for three suspects who were seen on store video walking into the Jewels by Alan store near Jamboree Road and Michelson Drive at 12:20 p.m. July 31. The thieves smashed several display cases before walking out with about $900,000 worth of jewelry.

No suspects have been arrested in that incident, Irvine Police Department spokeswoman Karie Davies told The Epoch Times.

California Crime Policy in Spotlight

The recent incidents were caught on video and have been widely circulated on social media, attracting nationwide attention.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody blamed California’s crime policies for the thefts.

“A mob of thieves brazenly stole up to $100K from a California Nordstrom in a smash-and-grab rampage. These criminals are emboldened by the state’s lax criminal justice policies,” Moody posted on X, formerly Twitter. “In Florida, organized retail theft is NOT tolerated – we’re fighting back with FORCE, … combating organized retail theft rings.”

The increase in flash mob-style retail crime comes on the heels of Los Angeles County’s reinstatement of a zero-cash bail system. In May, as a result of a lawsuit, a judge ordered the county to return to its policy of requiring no bail for suspects charged with most non-violent felonies or misdemeanors.

Although the county and city are awaiting a final ruling in the case, the judge’s temporary halt of the cash-bail system has already caused property crime to increase, according to local law enforcement.

LAPD Chief Michel Moore and Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna testified in the lawsuit Aug. 7 about how the zero-cash bail was affecting their departments.

“I do believe that bail acts as a general deterrence,” Chief Moore testified. “It creates consequences. You face a risk of being incarcerated as a punishment.”Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore speaks during a vigil with members of professional associations and the interfaith community at Los Angeles Police Department headquarters in Los Angeles, on June 5, 2020. (Mark J. Terrill/File/AP Photo)

He said he did not agree, as the plaintiffs in the case have argued, that cash bail creates a “two-tier system.”

Chief Moore told reporters after the court hearing that 76 people released on the zero-bail system since May have been arrested again for another crime, and the city had since seen a 4-percent rise in car theft.

Criminals who offend again and again need to be held accountable, the sheriff also told the judge.

“We’re not saying that zero bail is completely out,” Sheriff Luna said. “We’re saying if you have a repeat offender, someone who is a habitual criminal, they have to be held accountable—even for a stack of lower-level crimes.”

According to the sheriff, in the past 10 weeks since the county’s zero-cash bail was reinstated by the court, his department had arrested 1,573 people, 226 of whom were released and then arrested again for a different crime—a 14.3-percent recidivism rate.

In other action statewide, California lawmakers are close to prohibiting businesses from asking employees to confront shoplifters or active shooters. Senate Bill 553 has already passed the state Senate and has sailed through two committees in the Assembly on its way to a final vote

end

CRE update/Blackstone/BREIT

(zerohedge)

Blackstone’s Real Estate Trust Changes President As CRE Markets Crack

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 09:25 PM

Blackstone Inc.’s $68 billion real estate trust has been bombarded with nine months of heavy redemption requests while storm clouds gather over commercial real estate markets. The latest sign of bad news from Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) is an announcement from the company that its president will go on nine months of leave.

BREIT filed an 8-K filing on Tuesday morning, announcing president A.J. Agarwal “will be taking a continuing education sabbatical beginning September 15, 2023 for nine months, and is stepping down from his role as President and Board member effective August 14, 2023.”

Agarwal will be replaced by “Robert Harper, BREIT’s current Head of Asset Management and Head of Blackstone Real Estate Asset Management Americas,” the filing said.

The management change comes as BREIT has been working through redemption requests since last November. Wealthy investors have panicked out of the fund but have only been met with redemption restrictions to prevent massive outflows.

Remember when BREIT received a $4 billion ~~bailout~~ cash infusion from the University of California earlier this year?

Blackstone’s BREIT Gets $4 Billion ‘Buffett-Style’ Bailout From University Of California

Late January, Blackstone President Jonathan Gray told Financial Times that BREIT was experiencing a “backlog” of redemption requests.

Blackstone President Says BREIT Still Has “Backlog” Of Redemption Requests

Redemption requests surged in Spring:

And continued this summer:

BREIT Hit By Ninth Consecutive Month Of Redemptions; Plans Pivot To AI Data-Centers

BREIT’s troubles stem from shifts in real estate demand and rising interest rates that have caused rumbles in CRE markets.

Taking a “continuing education sabbatical” is a new one… Typically, executives resign citing ‘health reasons’.

END

Michael Snyder on the plight of middle class Americans

(Michael Snyder)

Middle Class Meltdown: Thanks To The Reckless Policies Of Our Leaders, ‘Average’ Americans Are In Huge Trouble

TUESDAY, AUG 15, 2023 – 10:25 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The middle class in the U.S. has been steadily shrinking for decades, but in recent years our leaders have greatly accelerated that process. In 2020, 2021 and 2022 they absolutely flooded the system with new money, and almost all of that new money went into the pockets of the wealthy. The gap between the wealthy and the rest of us is now larger than ever, and that isn’t a good thing for our society. Even if you are still making as much money as you did a few years ago, you have lost a lot of ground financially, because the cost of living has been rapidly eating away at our standard of living. As I covered the other day, household income in the United States has declined by 9.1 percent since April 2020 after adjusting for inflation and taxes. In other words, the middle class is a whole lot smaller than it was in April 2020, and it continues to get smaller with each passing day.

According to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, on average Americans are now spending “$709 more per month on everyday goods and services than they did two years ago”…

Americans are spending $709 more per month on everyday goods and services than they did two years ago, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi made the statement Friday on X, formerly known as Twitter, as part of his analysis of July’s consumer price index report.

Is the rising cost of living causing financial stress for you?

If it is, you are definitely not alone.

The wealthy are doing just fine for the moment, but inflation has caused a lot of pain for the vast majority of the rest of us.

Just paying for a place to live has become incredibly oppressive. Personally, I was astounded to learn that the average rent in Manhattan has now reached $5,588 per month…

New Yorkers are feeling the squeeze as rents hit a new high.

Rent in Manhattan soared to a record-high average of $5,588 in July, up 9% from 2022.

It’s hurting tenants struggling to find apartments they can afford. One apartment hunter said she can’t find a studio to suit her work-from-home needs for less than $5,000.

Who can afford that?

Only the wealthy.

Of course the truth is that rents have been soaring all over the country.

It is being reported that the nationwide average rent-to-income ratio has exceeded 30 percent for the past two years.

This is the very first time in the entire history of our country that this has ever happened.

With rents being so high, a lot of Americans are being forced out into the streets.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States “has seen a record increase in homeless people this year”.

Please let that statement sink in for a moment.

So far in 2023, the number of homeless people in the U.S. is up 11 percent from last year.

That is the biggest jump that the government has ever recorded.

Not even during the recession of 2008 and 2009 did we see anything like this.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the months ahead is not promising, because it looks like the cost of living is going to continue to rise at a brisk pace.

According to CNN, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has nearly reached 4 dollars a gallon…

Pump prices are creeping towards $4 a gallon nationally.

The national average for regular gasoline hit $3.85 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA. That’s the highest level since October 19 and comes just weeks ahead of Labor Day weekend when millions of Americans will hit the roads.

I remember the days when I could fill up my vehicle for less than 20 dollars.

But the other day I spent 70 dollars at the gas station and that didn’t even fill the tank.

And we are being warned that U.S. consumers are going to have a lot less discretionary income in the months ahead as tens of millions are forced to start making payments on student loans again…

For more than three years, federal student loan borrowers have not had to make monthly payments. But that pandemic-era pause is coming to an end this fall, setting up a financial shock for millions of Americans and the big-name stores, such as Target, Nike, Under Armour and Gap, where they shop.

About 44 million borrowers in the U.S. were affected by the payment pause, which initially began in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Biden administration extended the pause for the eighth time in November but will not do so again as part of the bipartisan debt ceiling deal approved by Congress.

More than 60 percent of all Americans are already living paycheck to paycheck, and many are increasingly turning to debt in order to make ends meet.

In fact, total credit card debt now exceeds the one trillion dollar mark for the first time ever, and that is not a good sign at all.

Also, an increasing number of Americans are now dipping into their 401(K) plans…

When father-of-two Ivan Marusic lost his job overnight in 2020, he was left panicking about how he would cover his mortgage.

It prompted the 35-year-old, from Texas, to do something he never thought he would: withdraw $20,000 from his 401(K). It is a decision he is still paying for now.

‘I was really hesitant to do it because I knew it would set me back financially in the long run. But I didn’t have any other options. I had already maxed out my credit card and I was running out of money,’ Marusic, a tech worker who has since founded the website Game Taco, told Dailymail.com

We really are witnessing a middle class meltdown.

I have been warning about this trend in my books for years, and now the evisceration of the middle class has greatly accelerated.

I wish that I could tell you that there is economic hope on the horizon.

But I can’t do that, because our leaders continue to make incredibly self-destructive decisions which are going to cause immense economic pain for the entire country.

* * *

Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

end

Only 12% of teachers can afford homes close to their schools

(zerohedge)

Only 12% Of Teachers Can Afford Homes Close To Their Schools

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 06:55 AM

The number of teachers who can afford a reasonably priced home in their school district nationwide has collapsed to just 12%, down from 17% last summer and 30% in 2019, amid the worst housing affordability crisis in a generation, according to data from Redfin.

Redfin’s analysis of median teacher salaries for 2022 across 50 major cities for over 70,000 PreK-12 public and private schools revealed no teacher in San Jose and San Diego could afford homes within “commuting distances” to their respective school, which means home and work are 20 minutes during typical rush hour conditions.

The struggle stems from teacher wages not keeping pace with high inflation. Data from National Education Association (NEA) shows teachers only received a 2% bump in pay in 2021-22 from the prior year to $66,745 when adjusted for inflation. Compared with a decade ago, teachers make $3,644 less when adjusted for inflation.

“As teacher salaries stagnate, housing prices continue to climb—a confluence of events that has forced many educators to drop out of the field, fueling a dire teacher shortage in some areas,” the report said.

A recent Redfin report shows the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment was $2,605 during the four weeks ending July 30, up 19% from a year earlier. Rent prices are also near record highs.

“The shortage of affordable homes is exacerbating the shortage of teachers,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari.

Bokhari continued, “Many teachers who can’t afford to buy a house near work are either renting and missing out on the opportunity to build wealth through home equity, or leaving education in search of more lucrative careers.”

The worst of the housing affordability crisis is for teachers in Democratically controlled metro areas.

Redfin does have some good news: The most affordable place for teachers is the Midwest…

In Detroit, the average teacher can afford two-thirds (67%) of homes for sale within commuting distance of their school—the highest share among the 50 most populous metros. Next comes Cleveland, where 59% of commutable homes, on average, are affordable on the median teacher salary. Rounding out the top five are Pittsburgh (53%), Philadelphia (49%) and St. Louis (40%).

The list is similar for rentals. Ranking first is Cleveland, where the typical teacher can afford 82% of available rentals within commuting distance of their school. It’s followed by Pittsburgh (76%), Detroit (73%), Milwaukee (73%) and Philadelphia (62%).

These metros have a couple of things in common: They rank among the most affordable when it comes to home prices, and they don’t rank at the bottom of the list when it comes to teacher salaries. That’s why these areas have relatively high shares of homes affordable for teachers.

In Detroit, for example, the median home sale price is $187,000—lower than any other major metro in the country. Still, Detroit ranks 26th for teacher pay among the 50 biggest metros, with a median salary of $64,221. That’s higher than the typical salary in, say, Miami, where the median home sale price is $515,000 but the typical teacher only makes $60,463.

In a separate report, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank Benjamin Picton explained how no matter how millennials and Gen Z save, their ability to afford a home has collapsed.

Just wait until student debt repayments restart in the next few weeks. The NEA said about half of all teachers have an average total student of around $56,000.

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

SWAMP STORIES

Twitter Gave Special Counsel Trump’s Deleted Messages, Location Data: Documents

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, AUG 16, 2023 – 03:05 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Twitter has handed over a voluminous set of data from former President Donald Trump’s account to special counsel Jack Smith, newly unsealed documents show.

Twitter, now known as X, gave Mr. Smith’s team data including deleted direct messages, other direct messages, draft posts, and information on the locations of users who posted to the account, lawyers for the company said in a Feb. 9 closed-door court hearing, a transcript of which was just made public.

The data included what Twitter described as “confidential communications,” or messages between President Trump and his senior advisers.

Twitter challenged a warrant issued by U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell for the data but the judge shot the challenge down, ruling that Mr. Smith had provided sufficient evidence for the warrant and a linked non-disclosure order.

Twitter said the latter infringed on its constitutional rights and sought clearance to alert President Trump to the warrant’s existence so he could file opposition based on claims of executive privilege, but Judge Howell, appointed under President Barack Obama, upheld both orders and sanctioned X for failure to provide the data in a timely manner.

Twitter appealed the ruling to an appeals court but the court backed Judge Howell, finding that prosecutors had an “unquestionably compelling” interest in pursuing their investigation of Mr. Trump and keeping it secret from him and also because the order was “narrowly tailored,” such as by limiting its duration to 180 days.

The newly released transcript was part of a tranche of unsealed documents that also includes the warrant.

Mr. Smith’s team was authorized by the warrant to obtain an extensive amount of data from Twitter, including all records from October 2020 to January 2021 of composed posts, whether they remained in draft form or not; all direct messages that were sent, received, or drafted; all devices used to access the account; and any credit card or bank account information linked to the account.

Ari Holtzblatt, an attorney representing Twitter, told the judge during the February hearing that there was no bank or credit card information associated with the account.

“Really? Then how did somebody pay for the account at all?” Judge Howell asked.

“You don’t have to provide that information to use a Twitter account?”

“That’s correct, your honor,” Mr. Holtzblatt said.

“The Twitter service is free.”

Twitter was also ordered to hand over lists of users President Trump followed and blocked, users who liked or shared the president’s posts, and all searches he performed from October 2020 to January 2021.

Twitter produced many of the records but was still working on compiling some, including data that may have been deleted by a person with access to the account after Twitter reinstated it in late 2022, lawyers for the company said. The company suspended President Trump in 2021 following the breach of the U.S. Capitol.

Twitter has conveyed to the government that President Trump had to delete posts to have the account reinstated, government lawyers testified.

President Trump, who is running for president in the 2024 election, has said that the actions by President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice were aimed at “trying to infringe on my campaign.” He questioned in a recent statement, “Does the First Amendment still exist?”

Challenge

Along with the warrant, Mr. Smith’s team had asked for a non-disclosure order compelling Twitter to keep the warrant secret, arguing that letting President Trump know of the warrant would result in harm.

The secrecy, they said, would help make sure a grand jury considering charges against President Trump would be able to freely deliberate and prevent efforts to tamper with witnesses.

The existence of the investigation is public, being made known by the same Department of Justice, and numerous reports have detailed steps taken by the grand jury, including people who have testified before it, Twitter noted.

The company said that the non-disclosure order was violating its First Amendment rights and pointed to its terms that tell users it will notify them of disclosures of account information unless prohibited from doing so.

“The non-disclosure order in this case is particularly significant given that the warrant seeks the contents of private communications sent to or from the then-President of the United States that raise unique and complex issues of executive privilege,” Twitter said in one filing.

“Allowing Twitter the opportunity to notify the account holder would afford the user-the principal party in interest for executive privilege-an opportunity to address the legal issues surrounding a demand for presidential communications in this unique context, and give this court a full adversarial process in which to evaluate them.”

Government officials said that President Trump has a history of obstructing investigations, pointing to the report issued by former special counsel Robert Mueller, and that disclosure would harm its investigation.

Judge Howell badgered Twitter lawyers on their motivation for challenging the non-disclosure order.

“Is it because the CEO wants to cozy up with the former president?” she asked at one point, referring to Twitter CEO Elon Musk.

“No your honor,” a Twitter lawyer said.

“It’s whether or not they are facially valid.”

“It couldn’t be that Twitter is trying to make up for the fact that it kicked Donald Trump off Twitter for some period of time that it now is standing up to protect First Amendment rights here, is it?” Judge Howell said later.

“No,” a Twitter lawyer said.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report August 16, 2023 Issue 7056

Independent View of the News

Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan ChaseFitch Ratings cut its assessment of the banking industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score from AA- to A+ would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC.“If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.In terms of what could push Fitch to downgrade the industry, the biggest factor is the path of interest rates determined by the Federal Reserve…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/fitch-warns-it-may-be-forced-to-downgrade-dozens-of-banks.html

July Retail Sales +0.7% m/m, 0.4% exp.; Ex-Autos1.0%, 0.4% consensus; Ex-Autos & Gas 1.0%, 0.4% expected; June Retail Sales revised to 0.3% from 0.2%; June Ex- Auto & Gas revised to 0.4% from 0.3%

August Empire Manufacturing -19.0; -1.0 consensus; August NAHB Housing Market Index 50, 56 exp.

McCarthy floats stopgap to prevent government shutdown
It underscores the difficult path the divided Congress in faces in trying to fund the government before the Sept. 30 deadline… McCarthy emphasized that any continuing resolution… would not go past early December, according to four sources on the call…”Right now, I would say no,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-N.C.) said last month of voting for a continuing resolution, adding that he is “absolutely” willing to force a government shutdown… https://www.axios.com/2023/08/15/mccarthy-government-shutdown-continuing-resolution

Wait! What? Wasn’t McCarthy’s cave to Biden and Dems to hike the US debt ceiling supposed to prevent short-term budget bill drama until after the 2024 Elections?  More US debt is coming!
USUs traded modestly lower when the Nikkei opened on Tuesday. They inexorably declined until they sank after the stronger than expected US July Retail Sales Report was leaked.   USUs hit a daily low of 119 14/32 at 8:28 ET, two minutes before the 8:30 ET official release.

We have repeatedly noted that someone entities are getting advance notice of US economic data. Where are the regulators? Fogetaboutit! If the DoJ, FBI, CIA, et al are correct, less important government agencies are also likely to be corrupt or inept.

USUs then staged an explosive rally, due to the Fitch warnings about possible US big-bank downgrades.   USUs hit 120 21/32 at 9:17 ET. After a sharp retreat, USUs bounced to a new daily high of 120 23/32 at 10:09 ET. After forming a double top at 10:37 ET, USUs declined into the NYSE close, hitting 120 flat.

The ¥/$ hit 145.86 at 4:00 ET. This prompted Japanese FM Suzuki and forex chief Kanda to do modest verbal intervention in the yen. The yen/$ rallied to 145.11 at 10:51 ET; by 12:19 ET, it was 145.48.

Japan’s Suzuki (Finance Minister): Not targeting absolute levels of yen intervention
“We’re watching moves with a strong sense of urgency. We’ll respond appropriately to excessive moves.” When asked whether 145 yen is considered a trigger point for intervention, Suzuki said: “We don’t intend to have any absolute number, or defend that when it is breached”…
   Japan’s top forex diplomat Masato Kanda later on Tuesday that he would take appropriate steps against excessive currency moves, according to the Jiji news agency…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-suzuki-not-targeting-absolute-053400833.html

ESUs traded sideways, mostly in positive territory, from the Nikkei opening until they broke down after the 3 ET European opening. ESUs hit a temporary bottom at 8:31 ET (after retail sales release); they then rallied on buying for the Pump & Dump for the NYSE opening.

ESUs peaked ONE minute after the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. Too many traders got long for the Pump & Dump! ESUs sank to a daily low of 4458.50 at 10:34 ET. Traders then played for the 2^nd Hour Reversal.
ESUs plodded higher until the Noon Hour arrived. The ¥/$ hit 145.57 at 12:35 ET.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari comments during Q&A on Tuesday – 11:05 ET to 11:57 ETRate hikes have slowed economy somewhatWe’ve made some good progress on inflationUS inflation rate is “still too high”Want to see convincing evidence inflation is going to 2%I’m not ready to say that we’re done raising ratesWe’re a long way from cutting rates because core inflation is still close to 4%We need to avoid 1970s style outcome where we stop hiking rates too soonAt some point next year the Fed may need to lower rates (because of the 2024 Election, Neil?)Don’t see evidence that recession is around the cornerNot seeing evidence China issues spilling over to US
ESUs traded sideways from midday until they broke down at 14:14 ET. ESUs hit a bottom of 4447.00 at 15:42 ET. The late manipulation added 11 handles to ESUs by 15:56 ET; but they then slid into the close.

Fed’s Kashkari says he’s not ready to say Fed’s done with rate hikes
Kashkari noted, underlying inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices is still more than twice the Fed’s 2% target, and he needs “convincing” evidence it is coming down further to feel confident the Fed has done enough… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kashkari-says-hes-not-ready-161114145.html

Positive aspects of previous session
Fangs declined modestly because traders want to stay long for the expiry manipulation
Bonds bounced robustly after a sharp early decline
Gasoline declined sharply

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined again. The 10-yr yield hit 4.274% (per Yahoo!); the US 2-year yield hit 5.024%.
The ¥/$ lost most of its verbal intervention rally by midday ET and was unchanged at 145.56 at 16:00 ET
US economic data continues to be leaked early! What isn’t corrupt in the USA?
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will a critical mass of investors create the tipping point for US debt?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4449.64
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4478.87; 4432.19

Today – For the second time in the past few weeks, Fitch usurped the designs of equity and bond bulls. Ergo, traders will play for the Weird Wednesday upward manipulation and hope to salvage their longs. Today is also settlement for VIX August options. There could be some weird, wild stuff into the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. Afterward, be alert for a reversal of the move into the VIX Fix.

The S&P 500 Index and SPY (S&P 500 Index ETF) closed below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since March 28. Usually, the expiry squeeze is on call options. Now, the squeeze might be a downside crush on August puts. Bulls must halt downside momentum today or else!

ESUs are +0:50 at 20:30 ET; USUs are +3/32 and the Yen/$ is 145.61.

Expected Economic data: July Housing Starts 1.1% m/m, Permits 1.9%; July Industrial Production 0.35 m/m, Mfg. Production 0.0%, Cap Utilization 79.1%; FOMC Minutes 7/26 14:00 ET

Expected Earnings (Mostly retailers): TGT 1.40, TJX .76, CSCO 1.06

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4447; 100-day MA: 4284; 150-day MA: 4194; 200-day MA: 4122
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,571; 100-day MA: 33,973 150-day MA: 33,749; 200-day MA: 33,657
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3752.81 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4372.50 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4544.14 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4478.43 triggers a buy signal

Trump indicted out of Georgia probe into alleged efforts to overturn 2020 election
Former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and others also charged – The charges include violating the Georgia RICO Act—the Racketeer Influenced And Corrupt Organizations Act; Solicitation of Violation of Oath by a Public Officer; Conspiracy to Commit Impersonating a Public Officer; Conspiracy to Commit Forgery in the First Degree; Conspiracy to Commit False Statements and Writings; Conspiracy to Commit Filing False Documents; Conspiracy to Commit Forgery in the First Degree; Filing False Documents; and Solicitation of Violation of Oath by a Public Officer…The 97-page indictment contains 41 felony counts against Trump and the 18 defendants and alleges they “unlawfully conspired and endeavored to conduct and participate in a criminal enterprise in Fulton County, Georgia, and elsewhere.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-indicted-georgia-probe-alleged-efforts-overturn-2020-election

The Fulton County, Georgia charges against Trump and his associates would be laughable if they weren’t so damaging to “truth, justice, and the American way.” Trump et al are being charged for contesting the results of the 2020 Election. Dem darling Stacey Adams vehemently and publicly contested her narrow Georgia Gubernatorial loss to Kemp in 2018 for years. If fact, she became a national figure and Dem/MSM favorite for screaming for years that she was cheated out of the Georgia Governorship.

If Saying An Election Is Stolen Is A Crime, Why Isn’t Stacey Abrams In Prison?
Abrams lost the race for governor in Georgia in 2018 to then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp by 1.4 percentage points. Due to the small margin of victory, Abrams refused to formally concede her loss because she believed the election was “tainted” which led to the “disinvestment and disenfranchisement of thousands of voters.”… The activist threatened lawsuits but never provided evidence for her claims that black voters’ votes were being suppressed at the polls. Instead of facing punishment for her lies, Abrams was elevated by her party and the corporate media as the face of their attempt to permanently manipulate elections ahead of Trump’s second and third runs. She was so encouraged by this attention that she ran and lost against Kemp again in 2022…
    Years after her initial loss, Abrams was still pretending that Georgia elections were rigged against her. In 2021, she made a national show of calling for boycotts of Georgia when Republicans in her state passed election integrity laws. To this day, she regularly appears on TV to discuss how to advance Democrats’ undemocratic version of “democracy” during elections…
https://thefederalist.com/2023/08/15/if-saying-an-election-is-stolen-is-a-crime-why-isnt-stacey-abrams-in-prison/

Abrams defends lack of concession after 2018 gubernatorial loss – CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/03/politics/stacey-abrams-concession-2018-georgia/index.html

NYT: Stacey Abrams Ends Fight for Georgia Governor with Harsh Words for Her Rival 11/16/18
“Georgia citizens tried to exercise their constitutional rights and were still denied the ability to elect their leaders,” she said. “Under the watch of the now former secretary of state, democracy failed Georgians of every political party, every race, every region. Again.”…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/us/elections/georgia-governor-race-kemp-abrams.html

Mark Meadows was charged in Fulton County or asking for a PA official’s phone number!
https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1691287877064495104/photo/1

Trump was charged for asking people to watch the Georgia hearings on OANN in a tweet! You can’t make this up! https://t.co/JZ7YB6Akrg

@MarkSimoneNY: Everything that Donald Trump and his associates did in Georgia is EXACTLY what the Al Gore team did when contesting the 2000 election in Florida. Part of that team Alan Dershowitz confirmed that they did all the same things, made all the same calls on Gore’s behalf.

Dems could have been indicted for Bush v. Gore by Georgia DA’s standards: Dershowitz
“This RICO indictment could have been applied to us Democrats who challenged the Bush v. Gore election in Florida,” Dershowitz said.
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/alan-dershowitz-says-he-would-have-been-indicted-under-trump-indictment

Fulton County Judge Cracks Jokes in Courtroom after Delivering 10 Felony Indictments of Donald Trump  https://beckernews.com/fulton-county-judge-cracks-jokes-in-courtroom-after-delivering-10-felony-indictments-of-donald-trump-51551/

@JackPosobiec: Georgia state leg is Republican-controlled and could shut this circus down tomorrow if they wanted. Just like they could have matched those signatures if they wanted. But they won’t…

Georgia Gov. Kemp (GOP) and his allies despise Trump. That’s why Kemp won re-election in 2022 by 7.5 percentage points over Stacey Adams while Trump barely lost in Georgia in 2024.

@CollinRugg: Former (GOP) Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan does a victory lap on CNN after the new round of Trump indictments came in. Duncan even said it is “our” opportunity to get rid of Trump… “This feels different… Donald Trump sucked the soul out of the Republican Party.”

“He’s taken everything from us and it is our turn to take it back.”
@RealAmVoice: Dershowitz: The Left is pushing for quick trials to convict President Trump before the 2024 election @AlanDersh predicts the Left’s strategy with the Trump indictments is to get bad convictions that lose on appeal, but get the convictions before the 2024 election.
https://twitter.com/RealAmVoice/status/1691483584232591361

Trump campaign blasts DA in Georgia election case for father’s Black Panther ties: ‘Steeped in hate’  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaign-blasts-da-georgia-election-case-fathers-black-panther-ties-steeped-hate

NY radio host @johncardillo: If Trump had appointed an ethical FBI Director instead of Chris Wray most of this wouldn’t be happening to him and his supporters. If he had appointed a solid US Atty in Delaware instead of David Weiss, the Bidens might actually face consequences.
    If he didn’t take legal advice from Tom Fitton, Roger Stone, and Laura Loomer, he might not be under indictment for 91 charges in four jurisdictions.  The man has the absolute WORST personnel acumen and instincts in the history of the presidency, made worse by the fact that he bragged about hiring “only the best people.” Of course these are weaponized prosecutions, but he hired many of the people firing the weapons.

@kylenabecker: Here is MSNBC in 2017 reporting on Hillary voters seeking to “overturn” the results of Trump’s election. The report concedes that in America’s “democracy” political candidates have the right to challenge elections with alternate slates of electors. You can’t make this stuff up.
https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1691479572842233856

DC ‘selectively enforced’ defacement laws against BLM, pro-life group, federal appeals court rules
The case centers around 2 anti-abortion protesters who were arrested in 2020 for writing the words ‘Black Pre-Born Lives Matter’ in washable chalk outside an abortion facility
    The court ruled that city authorities treated pro-life protestors more harshly than Black Lives Matter activists and reversed a lower court’s dismissal of a complaint filed by the Frederick Douglass Foundation… The case has been remanded for further proceedings.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/dc-selectively-enforced-defacement-laws-blm-pro-life-group-federal-appeals-court-rules

@townhallcom: Joe Biden claims that he watched a bridge in Pittsburgh collapse in January 2022. “I watched that bridge collapse! I got there, and saw it collapse!” (50 years of lying under Dem privilege now conflating with dementia) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1691519119126822913

Jeffrey Epstein referred Obama White House counsel to JPMorgan as potential customer
Kathy Ruemmler, who is now general counsel for Goldman Sachs, was touted by Epstein’s personal assistant to JPMorgan as an ideal customer, the filing shows…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/jeffrey-epstein-referred-obama-white-house-counsel-to-jpmorgan.html

END

GREG HUNTER.INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO.

New BRICS Currency Bad for Dollar – John Rubino

New BRICS Currency Bad for Dollar – John Rubino

By Greg Hunter On August 15, 2023 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning about the fate of the U.S. dollar with the announcement next week (Aug 22–24) of the new BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) currency. There has been lots of speculation about it. Will it work? Is it gold backed? Will it immediately replace the U.S. dollar? 30 countries in all have signed onto the BRICS currency experiment. Rubino contends, “No matter what shape it takes, the new BRICS currency is bad for the dollar. . . . You don’t want to be an enemy of the U.S., but neither do you want to be a target just because you are doing what you think is right in the world. . . then the U.S. comes in and destroys your banking system. That is now a real possibility for a lot of countries. If you take the BRICS countries . . . and you add in all the other countries who want to join the BRICS coalition, and that includes Saudi Arabia and Mexico, you take all those countries together and, basically, you have half the world’s population and half the world’s GDP. So, this is not trivial. This is a major potential currency block, or trading block that is a real threat to U.S. dominance in the world. The sad fact is it’s our fault. The U.S. made this bed, and now we have to lie in it. We blundered around the world starting wars, overthrowing governments and bombing anybody that gets in our way. The world is just about at the point where it’s done. Regardless of what is going to happen at the BRICS meeting next week, it’s part of a trend of countries looking for ways to avoid dependence on the dollar and the dollar centric financial system. We could be seeing the end of U.S. dominance . . . dollars will still be used for trade, but the peak of the dollar could be happening before our eyes right this minute.”

The other thing you cannot shrug off is the inflation the Fed has been trying to snuff out with interest rate increases without pushing it back down. According to Rubino, this is also bad news for the dollar, and he goes on to say, “Even if they don’t do anything (next week) and they just planted this seed, it still started a conversation where people have to learn the difference between a fiat currency and a gold-backed currency. The more people that know that, the better it is for gold because you always come down on the side of a gold-backed currency once you understand it. So, none of this is good for the dollar. Also, when people realize the reason why the BRICS are considering a gold-backed currency, and it is because we weaponized the dollar. So, we are inflating the dollar away, and we are using it as a weapon at the same time against the rest of the world. . . . We pushed Russia into this war, and then we froze foreign exchange assets in western banks. The rest of the world is looking at this and thinking, wow, am I next? Is the U.S. going to do this to me? Maybe we should have this other currency?”

Rubino was one of the first to sound the alarm on the extreme problems in the commercial real estate market. Fitch is threatening to downgrade the credit ratings of some very big U.S. banks. Rubino says, “This, too, is negative for the dollar.”

Rubino also talks about the possibility of a world war, a civil war and a financial crash that is coming sooner than later.

There is much more in the 37-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com for 8.15.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/new-brics-currency-bad-for-dollar-john-rubino/)

Ater the Interview:

Click here for John Rubino’s free article called “The BRICS Currency: We’ll Soon Know.”

John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com. There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe.

You can also support John Rubino at the snail mail address below:

PO Box 953

Carlsborg, WA 98324

SEE YOU THURSDAY