OCT 4/2023//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $7.40 TO $1819.70//SILVER WAS DOWN 34 CENTS TO $20.96//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $4.65 TO $870.35 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN ANOTHER $17.15 TO $1170.75//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM JIM RICKARDS//UK HAS RUN OUT OF VITAL WEAPONS TO GIVE TO UKRAINE//EU TO UNFREEZE CASH OWED TO HUNGARY IF THEY WILL FORGO THEIR VETO OF WEAPONS TO UKRAINE//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//ETC//GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS/USA DATA: SERVICES PMI AND ISM BOTH INDICATE STAGLATION//USA MORTGAGE RATES APPROACHING 8% WHICH WILL BE DEADLY TO THE ECONOMY/SIMON WHITE COMMENTS THAT THE BOND VIGILANTES ARE BACK//JIM JORDAN AND STEVE SCALISE RUNNING FOR SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

October 4, 2023 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

GOLD PRICE CLOSED:  DOWN $7.40 TO $1819.70

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.34   AT $20.96

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1821.75.

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.02

SEPT 27//SHANGHAI GOLD

Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD  oz    PopupAM2014.57

PM1985.03

Historical SGE Fix

premium  $122,00

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Bitcoin morning price:, $27,560 UP 303  Dollars 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,817 UP 46 dollars

Platinum price closing  $870.35 DOWN  $4.65

Palladium price;     $1170.75 DOWN $17.15

END

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,504.09 UP 3.40 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1499.98 DOWN 9.72 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1733.36 DOWN 9.80 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,824.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/03/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 10/05/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

323 H HSBC 103
357 C WEDBUSH 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 50
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 110
661 C JP MORGAN 39
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 26 21
972 C IRONBEAM INC 2

TOTAL: 179 179
MONTH TO DATE: 8,587

JPMorgan stopped 0/179 contracts.

FOR OCT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT:  179 NOTICES FOR 17,900 OZ  or  .5567 TONNES

total notices so far: 8597 contracts for 859700 oz (26.709 tonnes)


FOR  OCT:

SILVER NOTICES:34 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 170,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 317 for 1,585,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7,40

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,35 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS  AT  THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 6.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 448.194 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY GIGANTIC  SIZED 2885 CONTRACTS TO 125,847 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.02 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GIGANTIC SIZED 952 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 952 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.02). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 441 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 


A MEGA HUMONGOUS  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 3326 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE)  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 1.665 MILLION O///HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)   HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 952 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  -352   CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 6926 contracts:   OR 34.630 MILLION OZ  (1154 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  34.630 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 34.630 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2885  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.02 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 3326  ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF  1.532 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:NEW TOTAL STANDING 1.665 MILLION OZ  /// WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 441 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A  GIGANTIC SIZED 952  CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION.   THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (952) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 34  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 170,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR  SIZED 1857 CONTRACTS  TO 431,226 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  – REMOVED: –432 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 1857 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $6.90 LOSS IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  STRONG 18,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING 27.039 TONNES/   + /A STRONG (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2041 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A  FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 2228  OI CONTRACTS (6.930 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4085 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 431,226

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2228 CONTRACTS  WITH 1857 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A  GOOD SIZED 4085 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2228 CONTRACTS OR 6.930 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED):  A STRONG 2041 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4085 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR  SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1857) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2228 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 18,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 27.039 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE  TAS LIQUIDATION AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS  DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5)  GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2041 CONTRACTS 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  14,257 CONTRACTS OR 1,425,700 OZ OR 44.345 TONNES IN 3TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4752 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  44.345 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  44.345/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES 

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 44.345 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE  SIZED 2885  CONTRACTS OI TO  125,847 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE  A MEGA GIGANTIC 3326  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC  3326  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3326  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 2885 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3326  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 441   CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 3.965 MILLION OZ  

OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR HUGE    $0.02 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR .10%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 135.33 PTS OR 0.78%          /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 711.06 PTS OR 2.28%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.82 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3015  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3171 /Oil DOWN TO 87.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 89.40 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 1857 CONTRACTS  TO 431,226 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.90 ON TUESDAY.  

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4085  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  DEC 4085 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4085 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A   FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2228  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4085 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1425 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.90//TUESDAY COMEX.   AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 2041 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT  (27.039) (  ACTIVE MONTH)

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    27.039 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $6.90) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS  WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2228 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING.  THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. 

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 6.930 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 18,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTALS STANDING:27.039 TONNES      ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $6.90.  FOR THE PAST WEEK, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE BANKERS PULL THE PLUG ON OUR SPECS. 

WE HAD  – REMOVED 432   CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2228  CONTRACTS OR 222800 OZ OR 6.93 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 194,681  fair

final gold volumes/yesterday   228,148 fair/

//speculators have left the gold arena

//OCT 4/ /// THE OCT.  2023 GOLD CONTRACT

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz94,556.091 oz
 OZ
Brinks 
Malca
4 kilobars Brinks
2957 kilobars Malca


















 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil




 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today179  notice(s)
17,900 OZ
.5567 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  96  contracts 
  9600 oz
0.2985 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month8597 notices
859,700  OZ
26.709 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  0 oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits:  0 oz

we had  2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks: 128.604 oz (4 kilobars)

ii) Out of Malca: 94,427.487 oz (2937 kilobars)

total withdrawals 94,556.091. oz (2941 kilobars)

Adjustments; 3  dealer to customer

i)Ashai: 15,620.374 oz

ii) Brinks: 78,061.499 oz

iii) JPMorgan 633.758 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 275  contracts having LOST 2387 contracts. We had 2572 contracts filed on Tuesday, so we gained 186 contracts or an additional 18,600 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. Somebody, for the third day in a row, was in urgent need of a huge supply of physical gold over here.

NOV LOST 38 CONTRACTS  to stand at 1202

December LOST 3139  contracts down to 371,914 contracts.

We had  179 contracts filed for today representing 17,900    oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  39  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 170   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8587 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT. (275  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  179 x 100 oz per contract equals 869,300 OZ  OR 27.039 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.  

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT. contract month:  No of notices filed so far (8587) x 100 oz +  (275) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (179)  x 100 oz) which equals  869,300 oz standing OR 27.039 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 27.039 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,023,223.140  OZ   62.93 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  20,817,366.795 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,216,290.252   (317.76  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,601,076.543 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,193,067 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 254.83 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 4

//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
0 oz
nil



















































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil oz 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory615,134.170 oz
CNT
Delaware





 











































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)34  CONTRACT(S)  
 (170,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)16 contracts 
(80,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)317 Contracts
 (1,585,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

total: nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 deposit customer account:

i) Into CNT:  600,040.061 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 15,094.170 oz

total customer deposit 615,134.231oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236  million oz/272.755 million  or 48.38%

Comex withdrawals  0

total: nil oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.638 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.755 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 50   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 115  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 133 NOTICES FILED 

ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ

NOVEMBER LOST 27 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 522

DEC. LOST 3379 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 109.729 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 170,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 67,796 //good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 87,400  strong//

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 317 x  5,000 oz = 1,585,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (50) and the number of notices served upon today 34 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month:  317 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (50) – number of notices served upon today (34 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 1.665 million oz.   

There are 37.638 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.35 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 875.08 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 48.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT  OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 448.194 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

James Rickards..

Something “Big & Stupid” Is Coming…

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 09:45 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

With debt levels reaching all-time highs in major developed and developing economies, and with debt-to-GDP ratios also in record territory (not including contingent liabilities such as Social Security, health care and other entitlements, which make matters worse), it seems time to consider just how nations will deal with this problem.

The debt crisis may not be imminent, but it is unavoidable. When it happens, it may present the greatest financial disaster of all time. It’s never too soon for investors to consider the fallout.

When you issue debt in a currency you print, there’s no need for default in the sense of non-payment.

You can just have the central bank buy the debt (by printing money). This is the situation today in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the European Monetary Union (the countries that use the euro). They all have huge debt burdens, but they all have central banks that can simply buy the debt by printing money to avoid default.

Non-Payment Is Not the Issue

There are many bad consequences to printing money and storing up debt on central bank balance sheets, but non-payment of debt is not one of them. This is the mantra of the Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT) and their thought leader Stephanie Kelton.

In my view, MMT is garbage as economic policy, but the no-default tenet is valid. George Soros says the same thing.

That said, we are well past the point where the debt can be managed with real growth. That threshold is about a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio. A 60% debt-to-GDP ratio is even more comfortable and can be managed.

Unfortunately, the major reserve currency economies are all well past the 90% ratio as are those of many smaller countries. The U.S. ratio is 134%, an all-time high. The U.K. ratio is 102%. France is 111%. Spain is 112%. Italy is 145%.

China reports a figure of 77% but this is highly misleading because it ignores provincial debt for which Beijing is ultimately responsible. China’s actual figure is over 200% when provisional debt is included.

The champion debtor is Japan at 261%. The only major economy with a halfway respectable ratio is Germany at 67%. It’s Germany’s misfortune that they are probably responsible for the rest of Europe through the ECB Target2 system.

All these countries are headed for default. But we must consider the different ways to conduct a default.

There are three basic ways to default: non-payment, inflation and debt restructuring. You can take non-payment off the table for the reason mentioned above — you can always just print the money.

The same goes for restructuring. Inflation is clearly the best way to default. You pay back the money in nominal terms, but it’s worth very little in real terms. The creditor loses and the debtor countries win.

Nice and Easy Does It

The key to inflating away the real value of debt is to go slowly. It’s like stealing money from your mother’s purse. If she has $50 and you take $40, she’ll notice. If you take one dollar, she won’t notice. But a dollar stolen every day adds up over time.

This is what the U.S. did from 1945–1980. At the end of World War II, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 120% (about where it is now). By 1980, the ratio was 30%, which is entirely manageable.

Of course, nominal debt and GDP soared, but nominal GDP went up faster than nominal debt, so the ratio fell. If you can keep inflation around 3% and interest rates around 2% and exert fiscal discipline (which we did under Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon and Ford), the nominal GDP will grow faster than nominal debt (due to the Fed capping rates).

If you improve the ratio by, say, 2% per year and keep it up for 35 years (1945–1980), you can cut the ratio by 70%. That’s what we did.

The key was to do it slowly (like stealing from your mom’s purse). Almost no one noticed the decline in the real value of money until we got to the blow-off stage (1978–1981). But by then it was mission accomplished.

So there are two ways to deal with excessive debt: fiscal discipline and inflation. From 1945–1980, the U.S. did just that. If you run inflation at 3% and interest rates are 2%, you melt the real value of debt. If you exert fiscal discipline relative to GDP, you decrease the nominal debt-to-GDP ratio.

We did both.

The reason the debt-to-GDP ratio is back up to 134% is that Bush 45, Obama, Trump and Biden ignored the formula. Since 2000, fiscal policy has been reckless so the formula doesn’t work. The problem isn’t really “money printing” (most of the money the Fed prints just comes back to the Fed as excess reserves, so it doesn’t do anything in the real economy).

The problem is that nominal debt is going up faster than nominal GDP, so the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up. This dynamic will be made much worse by the huge increase in interest rates over the past 18 months.

You can’t borrow your way out of a debt crisis. We have also been unable to generate much inflation. Inflation ran below 2% for almost all of the 2009–2019 recovery.

Japan Writ Large

Looking at the global picture, it’s important to understand that Japan is just a bigger version of the U.S. They don’t have fiscal discipline and they can’t get inflation to save their lives. The only way out for Japan is hyperinflation, which will come but not yet.

Japan can probably keep the debt game going for a while. The crash will come when the currency collapses. When I started in banking, USD/JPY was 400. Those were the days!

A debt crisis is on the way. Something big and stupid (in the words of the brilliant analyst Stephanie Pomboy) is coming from policymakers to address the issue. But the solution won’t be a policy and it won’t be a plan. A crisis will just happen almost overnight and seem to come from nowhere.

But it will come.

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Gold did hold up well in September against rising real rates

(Jan Nieuwenhuijs)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Gold held up well in September against rising real rates

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-10-03 16:23Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Gainesville Coins, Lutz, Florida
Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Despite the gold price declining for several months, its performance is extremely strong considering sharply rising real interest rates. To measure gold’s performance against real rates (TIPS yield) I’m introducing the “Gold Price–TIPS Model Tracker” to improve our understanding of how the gold price is set and its future potential.

As we have discussed repeatedly on these pages, the gold price has been set by Western institutional money for nearly a century, and from 2006 through February 2022 there was a tight inverse correlation between the price of gold and the yield of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), which reflect real interest rates.

Then, early 2022, things started to change. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/gold-held-up-extremely-well-in-september-relative-to-rising-real-rates

end

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED  UP AT 7.3015

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3171

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR .10%  

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 135.33 PTS OR 0.78% 

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 711.06 PTS OR 2.28 % 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:   ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  106.52 EURO RISES TO 1.0501 UP 33 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.794 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.96/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP//  OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.9415***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.915*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.048…** 

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.401

3j Gold at $1829.60 silver at: 21.40 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  13 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.48//

3m oil into the  87  dollar handle for WTI and 89  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.97//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.794% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9178 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9636 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.774 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.888 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  5.138  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.57…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4  BASIS PTS AT 4.638

end

2.a  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

USA EARLY MORNING REPORT

Global Stock Rout Reverses As Yields Dip After 30Y Treasury Tags 5%

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 08:14 AM

Global stocks and US futures were in freefall earlier this session, with spoos tumbling to a four month low of 4,235 and tracking the relentless drop in Treasuries tick for tick which briefly sent 30Y yields above 5.00% – the highest since Sept 2007 – around the time Europe opened…

… before a bout of buying kicked in and yields dropped sharply while futures reversed all losses and as of 7:45am, S&P futures were up 0.2% to 4,273 while Nasdaq futures were up 0.1% after slumping sharply earlier.

Europe was mixed as German 10-year yields reached the highest level since 2011 too as the Treasury moves rippled across markets. Investors are now focuing on term-premium and demanding greater compensation to hold onto long-dated debt with rates set to remain higher for longer, while concerns about the ridiculous pace of Treasury issuance – US debt rose by a whopping $275 billion on the first day of October – to address rising budget deficits are also weighing. Elsewhere, the dollar also dropped, as did oil, with WTI slipping further below the $90-per-barrel mark as an OPEC+ meeting is set to announce no changes to its policy.

In premarket trading, Apple fell 1%, after the stock was downgraded at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which said shares of the iPhone maker are trading near all-time high valuation levels, though its sales growth is likely to slow, while CEO Tim Cook sold $41 million in stock after taxes, his biggest sale in more than two years. Brooge Energy rose 21% after the company confirmed receipt of an acquisition offer from Gulf Navigation Holdings in a filing. Palantir gained 2% as the data analysis firm has emerges as the top pick for a contract to overhaul the UK’s National Health Service.

The latest leg of the bond selloff was fueled by Tuesday’s grotesquely manipulated and better-than-expected US job data, one which even Goldman mocked as being ridiculously adjusted, as well as a slew of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Data on U.S. private payrolls due later from the ADP Research Institute could fan more volatility, coming on the heels of Tuesday’s JOLTS survey.

“It’s fair to say there’s going to be a volatile environment until we have more clarity” on the direction of rates, Virginie Maisonneuve, global chief investment officer for equites at Allianz Global Investors, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “If you have a long-term time horizon find those stocks that have very strong structural backing for growth and have quality balance sheets.”

Meanwhile, there are signs that buyers are already emerging to take advantage of the stock swoon. The S&P 500 is officially in oversold territory based on its relative strength index of below 30. Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander AM, is among those eyeing cheapened assets.

“The current weakness of equities would be an opportunity to enter those sectors and companies with high sensitivity to rates,” he said. “We hope they will do a catch-up again once rates stabilize. Current yields are already at very high levels for the expected inflation and growth in the medium and long term.”

European stocks managed to squeeze out marginal gains with the Stoxx 600 adding 0.2%. In individual stock moves Wednesday, airline SAS AB fell as much as 96% after the bankrupt Scandinavian flag carrier announced plans to be taken private. Tesco shares gain as much as 3.2%, the most since March 29, after the UK grocer increased its guidance for retail adjusted operating profit for the year. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Sanofi shares rise as much as 0.9%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the company agreed to pay Teva Pharmaceutical as much as $1.5 billion to help develop and sell a medicine for inflammatory bowel disease
  • Orange rose as much as 2.5%, outperforming declining European markets, after BofA upgraded its rating by two notches and said the investment case for the French group ticked all the boxes
  • Fresenius Medical falls as much as 5.4%, the most since mid-August, after attorneys general in New York, New Jersey and Georgia filed a complaint against Fresenius Vascular Care, Inc. alleging unnecessary kidney disease surgeries
  • Cellnex drops as much as 3.9%, to the lowest in almost a year, after Barclays downgrades the tower operator to equal-weight, flagging overhang risks from sector M&A and some tailwinds turning into headwinds
  • BW LPG shares fall as much as 14% in Oslo, the most intraday since August 2022, after an offering of 8.4m shares by holders via DNB Markets
  • Spirent shares plummeted 40%, most since 2002, after the UK network testing firm said a slow summer and disappointing September meant it fell short of expectations for the third quarter
  • Airline SAS falls as much as 96% after announcing plans to be taken private late on Tuesday as part of a restructuring process as it emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding in the US.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks tumbled, with several local benchmarks tracking the key regional gauge toward a correction, as the risk-off mood intensified after strong US jobs data amplified concerns of higher-for-longer interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.7%, pushing it down more than 10% from a July high. Tech stocks were the biggest drag as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a fresh 16-year high. South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 were among the region’s worst performers Wednesday, also flirting with technical-correction territory. Markets had become complacent about macro concerns in recent months as excitement over artificial intelligence helped drive stocks higher globally. That rally has now all but faded in the wake of strong economic data that’s backed the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated.

  • Hang Seng conformed to the downbeat mood amid the continued absence of mainland participants and with pressure on tech, energy and casino stocks.
  • ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and the top-weighted financial sector with headwinds amid the continued upside in yields.
  • Nikkei 225 extended on losses beneath the 31,000 level amid wide speculation of FX intervention and with Japanese officials out in force but refusing to confirm or deny whether they intervened.
  • KOSPI underperformed on return from the extended holiday despite encouraging Industrial Production data which showed a surprise expansion.
  • India stocks declined for a second consecutive session, tracking losses in regional peers as investors shun riskier assets on worries over interest rates staying higher for longer. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 65,226.04 as of 03:45 p.m. in Mumbai, the lowest since Aug. 31. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5% to 19,436.10, the lowest since Sept. 1. BSE’s small- and mid-cap gauges also fell by more than 1% each.  Foreign investors have turned sellers of Indian shares, taking out $2.3b in September, their first selloff after six straight months of purchases.      

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ left rates on hold, falling 0.2% versus the greenback. USDJPY is down to 148.88 after Japanese officials declined to comment on speculation they intervened in the currency market on Tuesday when the pair briefly rose above 150.

In rates, Treasury yields reversed an earlier spike which extended Tuesday’s bond market rout during London trading. 10-year reached 4.76% and keeping pace with bunds, gilts in the sector,while 30-year yields briefly exceeded 5% but were down to 4.88% last. As conviction grew that US interest rates could rise further from current 22-year highs, 30-year yields touched 5% for the first time since 2007. Markets are pricing a one-in-three chance of a November. US yields from belly to long-end are little changed with front-end yields marginally richer on the day; 2s5s10s fly cheaper by ~3bp on the day as belly underperforms. Recent activity in Treasury options sees traders positioning for 10-year yield above 5%. The Dollar IG issuance slate includes Kommuninvest 2Y; all companies considering deals Tuesday stood down Tuesday

In commodities, crude futures decline, with WTI falling almost 2% to trade around $88, at the lowest level in three weeks.

Looking to the day ahead now, the US session has heavy economic data slate, starting with ADP employment change at 8:15am New York time; it will also include the ISM services index along with factory orders for August. Elsewhere, there’s the final services and composite PMIs for September from around the world, and in the Euro Area there’s retail sales and PPI for August. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Centeno and Panetta, along with the Fed’s Bowman and Goolsbee.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,259.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 440.75
  • MXAP down 1.6% to 152.35
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 479.26
  • Nikkei down 2.3% to 30,526.88
  • Topix down 2.5% to 2,218.89
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 17,195.84
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 64,971.11
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,890.25
  • Kospi down 2.4% to 2,405.69
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $90.32/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,821.18
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.93
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.98%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0484

Top Overnight News

  • 1) Japan’s central bank made unscheduled purchases of government debt on Wednesday as yields on benchmark bonds hit their highest mark in a decade, while a global market sell-off also continued to drive US Treasury yields to 16-year highs. FT
  • 2) Softbank’s Son says AI will surpass human intelligence within the next decade as he spent an hour at the annual Softbank World event extolling the benefits of the technology. WSJ
  • 3) Oil edged lower ahead of an OPEC+ market review. The group may not suggest any change in its policy, with Saudi Arabia reaffirming plans to stick with its current curbs. In the US, crude inventories fell 4.21 million barrels last week, API data is said to show. That would lower total stockpiles to the least since March 2022 if confirmed by the EIA. BBG
  • 4) ECB’s Lagarde reiterates that policy rates have likely hit their peak for the cycle (but will stay elevated for an extended period). ECB
  • 5) US companies probably added 150,000 jobs in September, ADP data is expected to show. That’s the lowest since March, adding to signs of moderating labor demand before Friday’s payrolls data. Jeffrey Gundlach warned that even a small tick up in unemployment should put markets on “recession alert.” BBG
  • 6) The House has voted to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker. This has no immediate policy consequence, nor does it impact government funding, which was recently extended to Nov. 17. That said, a leadership vacuum in the House raises the odds of a government shutdown when the current funding extension expires. We continue to view a shutdown in Q4 as the base case, likely when funding expires Nov. 17. GIR
  • 7) Bond slump threatens to undercut the potential for an economic soft landing while the velocity of the move could stoke disruptions in financial markets. WSJ
  • 8) More than 75,000 workers are preparing for the largest health care strike in US history today after talks between Kaiser Permanente and a coalition of unions so far failed to produce a resolution. The three-day walkout may interrupt services for almost 13 million people, primarily in western states as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Washington, D.C., area. BBG
  • 9) Ford offered striking workers a more than 20% wage increase and said it would halve the time it takes new employees to reach top pay. BBG
  • 10) Large landlords bought 0.4% of U.S. homes in the second quarter, down from a peak of 2.4% at the end of 2021, as higher debt costs and moderating rent growth ate into investment returns…

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined following the losses on Wall Street where stocks and bonds resumed their slide. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and the top-weighted financial sector with headwinds amid the continued upside in yields. Nikkei 225 extended on losses beneath the 31,000 level amid wide speculation of FX intervention and with Japanese officials out in force but refusing to confirm or deny whether they intervened. KOSPI underperformed on return from the extended holiday despite encouraging Industrial Production data which showed a surprise expansion. Hang Seng conformed to the downbeat mood amid the continued absence of mainland participants and with pressure on tech, energy and casino stocks.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda reiterated ‘no comment’ on FX intervention and wouldn’t comment on whether he discussed a weak yen with PM Kishida, while he said it is normal for authorities not to comment on whether they intervened or not.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said currency rates should be set by the market and rapid FX moves are undesirable. Suzuki added that FX stability is important and won’t rule out any options against excessive moves, while he responded ‘no comment’ when asked if Japan intervened.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said ‘no comment’ on whether Japan intervened in the FX market and said it is important for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals. Matsuno also reiterated that they will continue to take appropriate steps on FX.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said “no comment” when asked about FX, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ to conduct funds-supplying operations against pooled collateral on October 6th 2023; duration of loans will be from October 10, 2023 through October 10, 2028; amount of loans to be notified when conducting the operations.
  • BoJ data suggest that there was likely no forex intervention on Tuesday, as the current account balance that was projected to be within market estimates, according to Reuters.
  • RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed the OCR needs to remain at a restrictive level and that interest rates are constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure as required. RBNZ said demand growth in the economy continues to ease and that GDP growth in the June quarter was stronger than anticipated but the growth outlook remains subdued. Furthermore, it stated that with monetary conditions remaining restrictive, spending growth is expected to decline further.

European bourses are now mostly but modestly firmer after trimming the losses seen at the cash open. Futures were initially pressured alongside yet another pick-up in yields which saw the German 10yr hit 3% for the first time since 2011, however, equities were able to claw back some lost ground as moves in the fixed income space began to stabilise. Sectors in Europe are now mostly firmer with Utilities, Optimised Personal Care Drug & Groceries, Real Estate, and Media as the current top performers, while Energy, Travel & Leisure, Autos & Parts, and Retail sit as the laggards at time of writing. US futures scaled back earlier losses to hover around neutral levels, with the ES back above 4,250.

Top European News

  • Germany is seeking a “grand bargain” with France to resolve the stalemate regarding nuclear power and help pave the way for a sweeping reform of the bloc’s electricity market, according to FT.
  • Italy risks garnering “near zero” proceeds from a one-off bank tax, according to Reuters sources. Italian banks would find it hard to justify shareholders paying the tax. The opt-out option in the latest version of the tax would have no impact on distribution policies.
  • ECB’s President Lagarde reiterated her stance that rates are sufficiently restrictive, according to Reuters.
  • BoE Governor Bailey said the labour market explains part of UK inflation, in an interview with Prospect Magazine. He added the job is not done on fighting inflation, and is likely to fall this year, in an interview with Orcadian.

FX

  • DXY gravitates as Treasury yields slip, risk sentiment improves and various institutions step up intervention – with the index retreating from 107.240 to 106.760 awaiting US ADP, ISM and more Fed speakers
  • Yen straddles 149.00 vs Dollar after jolt through 150.00 irrespective of no confirmed Japanese buying.
  • Euro probes 1.0500 against Buck and Sterling regains 1.2100+ status post-decent UK PMI upgrades.
  • Kiwi lags after a less hawkish than anticipated RBNZ hold as NZD/USD hovers just under 0.5900.

Fixed Income

  • Debt complex feels reprieve following a deeper downturn in futures and an extension in yields.
  • Bunds bounce within the 126.62-127.23 range as the 10-year benchmark probed 3% and pared back.
  • Gilts recovered from 91.50 to 92.02 after a solid 2025 DMO auction.
  • T-note nearer 106-22+ top than 106-03+ bottom ahead of ADP, services ISM and more Fed speakers.
  • UK sold GBP 4.25bln vs exp. GBP 4.25bln 3.50% 2025 Gilt: b/c 2.61x (prev. 2.67x), average yield 4.964% (prev. 5.272%) & tail 1.1bps (prev. 0.9bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 2.392bln vs exp. EUR 3bln 2.40% 2030 Bund: b/c 2.67x (prev. 2.40x), average yield 2.89% (prev. 2.53%) & retention 20.27% (prev. 18.97%).
  • Total orders for the new 5yr BTP Valore have now reached EUR 10bln since the beginning of the offering, according to Reuters.

Commodities

  • Crude is softer intraday and fails to benefit from the improvement in risk tone as the OPEC+ JMMC is expected to recommend no change to current policy while Russia and Saudi are to maintain voluntary curbs at current levels.
  • Spot gold is flat and confined to a narrow USD 1,816.90-1,824.89/oz range but remains within yesterday’s parameters awaiting the next catalyst.
  • Base metals are now flat after trimming deeper APAC losses, with the broader market move more constructive than it was overnight.
  • Saudi Energy Ministry reaffirmed it will continue its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD starting in November until the end of December 2023, as expected, via Reuters.
  • Russia’s PM Novak said Russia is to continue additional voluntary supply cut of oil exports by 300k BPD until the end of December 2023; the decision will be reviewed next month to consider deepening the cut or increasing oil production, according to Reuters.
  • OPEC+ unlikely to tweak policy as Saudi and Russia keep voluntary oil cuts, according to Reuters citing sources.
  • Russian government is ready to partially lift its ban on diesel exports in the coming days, via Kommersant citing sources. The ban would only be lifted only on pipeline exports of diesel and volumes may be subject to quotas to avoid surges in wholesale prices. The ban on gasoline exports will remain in force for now. Russia’s Energy Minister said partial permission for fuel export is under discussion at all levels, via Tass – further decisions on regulating the fuel market will be published soon.
  • UAE’s ADNOC sets October Murban Crude OSP at USD 93.92/bbl (prev. USD 87.28/bbl in October), according to Reuters.

Geopolitics

  • North Korea criticised the US for describing China and Russia as a threat in a new WMD strategy, while North Korea will counter US provocations with a massive response, according to KCNA.
  • European Commission has formally started the probe into Chinese EV subsidies (as expected), according to Bloomberg. China said European Commission requested China to hold consultations within a very short period of time for EV subsidy probe and did not provide effective material; this severely damaged China’s rights, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications -6.0%, prior -1.3%
  • 08:15: Sept. ADP Employment Change, est. 150,000, prior 177,000
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.2, prior 50.2
  • 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.1, prior 50.1
  • 10:00: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
    • Durables Less Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7%
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
  • 10:00: Aug. Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior -2.1%
    • Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 10:00: Sept. ISM Services Index, est. 53.5, prior 54.5

Central Bank speakers

  • 10:25: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Community Banking Research Conference
  • 10:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Chicago Payments Symposium
  • 15:00: Fed’s Goolsbee Moderates Discussion With Raghuram Rajan

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’re at risk of repeating ourselves on a daily basis now, but the last 24 hours saw the relentless bond sell-off continue, with yields rising to fresh multi-year highs on both sides of the Atlantic.That included the 10yr Treasury yield (+11.7bps), which closed at a post-2007 high of 4.80% (4.838% this morning), whilst the 10yr real yield (+10.9bps) also hit a post-GFC high of 2.44%. But unlike some previous days, the sell-off was evident across several asset classes, with sizeable losses across equities and credit as well. In fact, the S&P 500 (-1.37%) closed at a 4-month low, and the index has now lost nearly 8% since its recent peak in late-July. That makes this now the biggest sell-off so far this year, having now surpassed the scale of the losses in February and March at the time of SVB’s collapse. Meanwhile, the Stoxx 600 is back to levels it first breached in 2023 on January 6th. US CDX HY widened +20bps to the widest since May and now wider than where we started 2023. So this is starting to be a significant correction. I struggle to see how the recent yield moves don’t increase the risk of an accident somewhere in the financial system given the relatively abrupt end over recent quarters of a near decade and a half where the authorities did everything they could to control yields. So risky times. If all that wasn’t enough, the US House speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted late last night leaving a leadership vacuum with large uncertainty as to how this will be filled ahead of the next government shutdown deadline of November 17th .

We dig deeper into some of these issues below but first the main factor behind yesterday’s declines was the JOLTS report of job openings for August, which showed the US labour market was proving more resilient than expected. The big headline was that job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.610m (vs. 8.815m expected), taking them up from their two-year low in July. So that made a big change from the narrative in the last report, when job openings hit a two-year low and there was a growing sense that the tight labour market was beginning to ease. And it comes on top of some strong readings in other data recently, including the ISM manufacturing print on Monday, as well as the last couple of weekly jobless claims. There were maybe parts of the JOLTS report that weren’t as buoyant as the headline number (e.g., a stable quits rate and the hiring rate at its lowest since the first Covid wave) but that was not a nuance that was relevant yesterday.

For markets, it meant another rate hike from the Fed was kept firmly on the table. Indeed, futures suggested that the likelihood of another hike by December was up to 52%, having reached 57%, its highest since August, intra-day. And in turn, yields on 6-month T-bills hit a post-2001 high of 5.58%. Moreover, the sense that rates would remain higher for longer was cemented by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said the Fed should “hold for a long time ”. Later on, Cleveland Fed President Mester then said she would support a November hike if the economy “looks the way it did at the next meeting similar to the way it looked at our recent meeting”.

All that meant the bond sell-off continued apace, with lots of new milestones around the world. As discussed at the top, for the 10yr Treasury yield, there was another +11.7bps jump up to 4.80%. Furthermore, the 30yr yield (+13.5bps) moved above its intraday peak from 2010, reaching levels last seen in 2007. From a financial conditions perspective, it was notable how real yields led the sell-off once again, with the 10yr real yield (+10.9bps) up to a post-2008 high of 2.44%. This dramatic rise in long-dated borrowing costs has also led to a major curve steepening in recent weeks, with the 2s10s curve steepening another +6.9bps yesterday to -35.9bps (-31.9bps overnight). Given its role as a leading indicator of recessions, there has been some excitement about a soft landing because of those moves. But as Henry pointed out yesterday (here) most cycles normally see a curve steepening in the months just before the recession begins. So we’re some way from sounding the all clear just yet.

Over in Europe, there was also a sharp sell-off for sovereign bonds. Among others, we saw yields on 10yr bunds (+4.5bps) hit a post-2011 high of 2.96%, yields on 10yr OATs (+5.6bps) at a post-2011 high of 3.53%, and yields on 10yr BTPs (+13.3bps) at a post-2012 high of 4.93%. The 10yr BTP-Bund spread thus reached its highest level since March at +197bps. As in the US, there was a sharp rise in European real yields, with the German 10yr real yield up +4.9bps to 0.62%. And here in the UK, the 30yr gilt yield (+3.8bps) reached its highest closing level since 2002, at 5.05%.

With nominal and real rates rising around the world, it was a very bad day for risk assets, with the S&P 500 slumping -1.37% to a 4-month low. That leaves its YTD advance at just +10.16%, and on an equal-weighted basis the index is now -2.06% lower since the start of the year. Indeed, 273 of its constituents are now down YTD, with only 230 stocks higher. In a reversal of the past few days, tech stocks underperformed with the Nasdaq down -1.87% and the Magnificent Seven mega caps down -2.12%. The VIX volatility index traded above 20 for the first time since May, before closing up +2.17pts at 19.78. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-1.10%) fell to a 6-month low, having now shed -6.58% since its peak in late-July. It’s true that the index is still up +3.72% YTD, but that’s mainly because the index had such a strong January, and we actually passed these current levels as soon as January 6th. So we’ve effectively gone sideways since.

Overnight in Asia, the sell-off continues. As I type, the Nikkei is down -2.03%, the Hang Seng -1.04% and the Kospi -2.30% after returning from 2 days of holidays. Markets in China are closed all week. Taking a quick look at Japan, the global fixed income sell-off saw yields on Japan’s five-year government bonds rise to their highest level since 2013. The yen weakened to 149.21 against the dollar after speculation that price action in Tuesday’s session was driven by official intervention. Officials remained quiet this morning, as the top currency official Masato Kanda declined to comment whether any intervention had been conducted but did state that they “will respond as always to excessive FX moves”. In other news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep rates on hold at 5.5%. We continue to think the central bank has now reached its terminal rate. See our economist’s reaction here.

In US political news, after the US closed, the House of Representatives voted to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the first time in US history the Speaker has been ousted from their post. The move was led by a small group of conservative Republicans with Democrats joining in on a 216-210 vote. Votes on a new Speaker might begin on October 11th, according to reports, but uncertainty may linger (it took 15 rounds of voting for McCarthy to get the job back in January). From a market perspective, this brings extra uncertainty on the ability of Congress to pass a new spending bill after the latest stopgap measure expires on November 17th. With conservative Republicans having opposed McCarthy’s deal last weekend, his ouster may raise the risk that we will get a government shutdown in November, or that the Senate is forced to accept spending cuts demanded by House Republicans to avoid a shutdown. So a fiscal risk to keep in mind for later in Q4. Taking the temperature of the day ahead, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are slightly lower this morning (both around -0.2%) but off their overnight lows.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US will include the ISM services index and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for September, along with factory orders for August. Elsewhere, there’s the final services and composite PMIs for September from around the world, and in the Euro Area there’s retail sales and PPI for August. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Centeno and Panetta, along with the Fed’s Bowman and Goolsbee.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities trim losses, DXY lower as yields slip; US ADP, ISM & Durable Goods due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 05:56 AM

  • European bourses are now mostly but modestly firmer after trimming the losses seen at the cash open; US futures scaled back earlier losses to hover around neutral levels.
  • DXY gravitates as Treasury yields slip, risk sentiment improves and various institutions step up intervention – with the index retreating from 107.240.
  • Debt complex feels reprieve following a deeper downturn in futures and an extension in yields.
  • Crude is softer intraday and fails to benefit from the improvement in risk tone as the OPEC+ JMMC is expected to recommend no change to current policy while Russia and Saudi are to maintain voluntary curbs at current levels
  • Looking ahead highlights include US MBA, ADP, ISM, Durable Goods, NBP Policy Announcement, OPEC+ JMMC, Speeches, ECB’s de Guindos & Panetta, Fed’s Schmid, Bowman & Goolsbee. 

4th October 2023

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are now mostly but modestly firmer after trimming the losses seen at the cash open. Futures were initially pressured alongside yet another pick-up in yields which saw the German 10yr hit 3% for the first time since 2011, however, equities were able to claw back some lost ground as moves in the fixed income space began to stabilise.
  • Sectors in Europe are now mostly firmer with Utilities, Optimised Personal Care Drug & Groceries, Real Estate, and Media as the current top performers, while Energy, Travel & Leisure, Autos & Parts, and Retail sit as the laggards at time of writing.
  • US futures scaled back earlier losses to hover around neutral levels, with the ES back above 4,250.
  • Click here for more details.

FX

  • DXY gravitates as Treasury yields slip, risk sentiment improves and various institutions step up intervention – with the index retreating from 107.240 to 106.760 awaiting US ADP, ISM and more Fed speakers
  • Yen straddles 149.00 vs Dollar after jolt through 150.00 irrespective of no confirmed Japanese buying.
  • Euro probes 1.0500 against Buck and Sterling regains 1.2100+ status post-decent UK PMI upgrades.
  • Kiwi lags after a less hawkish than anticipated RBNZ hold as NZD/USD hovers just under 0.5900.
  • Click here for more details.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt complex feels reprieve following a deeper downturn in futures and an extension in yields.
  • Bunds bounce within the 126.62-127.23 range as the 10-year benchmark probed 3% and pared back.
  • Gilts recovered from 91.50 to 92.02 after a solid 2025 DMO auction.
  • T-note nearer 106-22+ top than 106-03+ bottom ahead of ADP, services ISM and more Fed speakers.
  • UK sold GBP 4.25bln vs exp. GBP 4.25bln 3.50% 2025 Gilt: b/c 2.61x (prev. 2.67x), average yield 4.964% (prev. 5.272%) & tail 1.1bps (prev. 0.9bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 2.392bln vs exp. EUR 3bln 2.40% 2030 Bund: b/c 2.67x (prev. 2.40x), average yield 2.89% (prev. 2.53%) & retention 20.27% (prev. 18.97%).
  • Total orders for the new 5yr BTP Valore have now reached EUR 10bln since the beginning of the offering, according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude is softer intraday and fails to benefit from the improvement in risk tone as the OPEC+ JMMC is expected to recommend no change to current policy while Russia and Saudi are to maintain voluntary curbs at current levels.
  • Spot gold is flat and confined to a narrow USD 1,816.90-1,824.89/oz range but remains within yesterday’s parameters awaiting the next catalyst.
  • Base metals are now flat after trimming deeper APAC losses, with the broader market move more constructive than it was overnight.
  • Saudi Energy Ministry reaffirmed it will continue its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD starting in November until the end of December 2023, as expected, via Reuters.
  • Russia’s PM Novak said Russia is to continue additional voluntary supply cut of oil exports by 300k BPD until the end of December 2023; the decision will be reviewed next month to consider deepening the cut or increasing oil production, according to Reuters.
  • OPEC+ unlikely to tweak policy as Saudi and Russia keep voluntary oil cuts, according to Reuters citing sources.
  • Russian government is ready to partially lift its ban on diesel exports in the coming days, via Kommersant citing sources. The ban would only be lifted only on pipeline exports of diesel and volumes may be subject to quotas to avoid surges in wholesale prices. The ban on gasoline exports will remain in force for now. Russia’s Energy Minister said partial permission for fuel export is under discussion at all levels, via Tass – further decisions on regulating the fuel market will be published soon.
  • UAE’s ADNOC sets October Murban Crude OSP at USD 93.92/bbl (prev. USD 87.28/bbl in October), according to Reuters.
  • Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Germany is seeking a “grand bargain” with France to resolve the stalemate regarding nuclear power and help pave the way for a sweeping reform of the bloc’s electricity market, according to FT.
  • Italy risks garnering “near zero” proceeds from a one-off bank tax, according to Reuters sources. Italian banks would find it hard to justify shareholders paying the tax. The opt-out option in the latest version of the tax would have no impact on distribution policies.
  • ECB’s President Lagarde reiterated her stance that rates are sufficiently restrictive, according to Reuters.
  • BoE Governor Bailey said the labour market explains part of UK inflation, in an interview with Prospect Magazine. He added the job is not done on fighting inflation, and is likely to fall this year, in an interview with Orcadian.

DATA RECAP

  • EZ HCOB Composite Final PMI (Sep) 47.2 vs. Exp. 47.1 (Prev. 47.1)
  • EZ HCOB Services Final PMI (Sep) 48.7 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4)
  • EU Retail Sales MM* (Aug 2023) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.1%)
  • EU Retail Sales YY* (Aug 2023) -2.1% vs. Exp. -1.2% (Prev. -1.0%)
  • EU Producer Prices MM (Aug 2023) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.5%)
  • EU Producer Prices YY (Aug 2023) -11.5% vs. Exp. -11.6% (Prev. -7.6%)
  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final (Sep) 49.3 vs. Exp. 47.2 (Prev. 47.2)
  • UK Composite PMI Final (Sep) 48.5 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 46.8)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US House voted 216-210 to remove Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker and the House Speaker’s office was declared vacant, while US House Republican McHenry will serve as interim Speaker.
  • Former House Speaker McCarthy confirmed he will not be in the running for Speaker again. Furthermore, GOP Rep. Garcia said there will be a closed forum next Tuesday to discuss candidates for House Speaker and GOP Rep. Jordan said House Republicans will meet next Wednesday to vote on a new House Speaker.
  • US President Biden announces an additional USD 9bln in Student Debt Relief for 125,000 Americans, according to the White House.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • North Korea criticised the US for describing China and Russia as a threat in a new WMD strategy, while North Korea will counter US provocations with a massive response, according to KCNA.
  • European Commission has formally started the probe into Chinese EV subsidies (as expected), according to Bloomberg. China said European Commission requested China to hold consultations within a very short period of time for EV subsidy probe and did not provide effective material; this severely damaged China’s rights, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin traded flat with prices capped by resistance at the USD 27,500 level.
  • Ripple secured a major payments institution licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks declined following the losses on Wall Street where stocks and bonds resumed their slide.
  • ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and the top-weighted financial sector with headwinds amid the continued upside in yields.
  • Nikkei 225 extended on losses beneath the 31,000 level amid wide speculation of FX intervention and with Japanese officials out in force but refusing to confirm or deny whether they intervened.
  • KOSPI underperformed on return from the extended holiday despite encouraging Industrial Production data which showed a surprise expansion.
  • Hang Seng conformed to the downbeat mood amid the continued absence of mainland participants and with pressure on tech, energy and casino stocks.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda reiterated ‘no comment’ on FX intervention and wouldn’t comment on whether he discussed a weak yen with PM Kishida, while he said it is normal for authorities not to comment on whether they intervened or not.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said currency rates should be set by the market and rapid FX moves are undesirable. Suzuki added that FX stability is important and won’t rule out any options against excessive moves, while he responded ‘no comment’ when asked if Japan intervened.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said ‘no comment’ on whether Japan intervened in the FX market and said it is important for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals. Matsuno also reiterated that they will continue to take appropriate steps on FX.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said “no comment” when asked about FX, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ to conduct funds-supplying operations against pooled collateral on October 6th 2023; duration of loans will be from October 10, 2023 through October 10, 2028; amount of loans to be notified when conducting the operations.
  • BoJ data suggest that there was likely no forex intervention on Tuesday, as the current account balance that was projected to be within market estimates, according to Reuters.
  • RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed the OCR needs to remain at a restrictive level and that interest rates are constraining economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure as required. RBNZ said demand growth in the economy continues to ease and that GDP growth in the June quarter was stronger than anticipated but the growth outlook remains subdued. Furthermore, it stated that with monetary conditions remaining restrictive, spending growth is expected to decline further.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Services PMI (Sep F) 53.8 (Prelim. 53.3)
  • Japanese Composite PMI (Sep F) 52.1 (Prelim. 51.8)
  • Australian Services PMI (Sep F) 51.8 (Prelim. 50.5)
  • Australian Composite PMI (Sep F) 51.5 (Prelim. 50.2)

Source: Newsquawk

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR .10%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 135.33 PTS OR 0.78%          /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 711.06 PTS OR 2.28%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.82 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3015  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3171 /Oil DOWN TO 87.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 89.40 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK/UKRAINE

UK has now run out of vital weapons to give to Ukraine

(zerohedge)

UK Has Run Out Of Vital Weapons To Give Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 09:30 AM

The hits just keep coming: a senior British military source has told The Telegraph that the UK has depleted available military equipment to give to Ukraine. Unlike the US or Poland at this point, it’s not a question of funding or political will, but the British military has simply run out of vital arms and ammo to give, apparently.

“We’ve given away just about as much as we can afford,” the official told the paper, explaining that all along the UK had encouraged other allies to keep arming Kiev.

“We will continue to source equipment to provide for Ukraine, but what they need now is things like air defense assets and artillery ammunition, and we’ve run dry on all that,” the official added.

The shortage was revealed after controversial remarks given by recent Defence Secretary Ben Wallace: 

The comments come after Ben Wallace revealed that he asked Rishi Sunak to spend £2.3 billion more on support for Ukraine before he resigned as defence secretary last month.

Mr Wallace warned that the UK had been overtaken by Germany as the biggest European military donor to Ukraine as he called for the 50 per cent increase on funding that the UK has committed so far.

And now the public spat is yet another setback for the pro-Ukraine war cause, as The Telegraph underscores in saying, “The Western alliance has suffered a series of blows in recent days, with support for Ukraine dropped from a US stop-gap budget bill, election success for a pro-Russian party in Slovakia and rows between Poland and Kyiv over grain supplies.”

These trends suggest NATO support and unity is fracturing, given also the most powerful country in the world is in a severe political fight, with the fate of future billions for Ukraine on the line. Biden still tried to ‘assure’ allies in phone calls on Tuesday.

And now the UK’s resolve could be fracturing too. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s reaction was that he would not waver:

Last night a senior military source told The Telegraph that the onus should not be on the UK to provide the “billions” Mr Wallace has called for.

“Giving billions more doesn’t mean giving billions of British kit,” they said, adding that the UK had a role to play in “encouraging other nations to give more money and weapons”.

…On Monday Mr Sunak was forced to insist that the UK’s commitment to Ukraine would not “waver” in the light of Mr Wallace’s comments.

The last months have seen Ukraine undertake a series of high-risk major operations against Russian-controlled Crimea, including significant strikes on the naval port of Sevastopol – including docked ships, submarines, and even the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The latter strike reportedly used UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles. They are effective, and yet such an advanced UK-made missile is clearly in short supply, not to mention very expensive, at over $3 million per unit.

END

SWEDEN

Sweden is having an awful time with their migrants as we see from deadly gun violence

(zerohedge)

Sweden’s Deadly Gun Violence

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is calling on the military to assist the police with tackling the rise in gang-related violence in the country, as fatal shootings and bombings claimed the lives of 12 people last month.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, in the latest move, the Swedish government said on Friday that it would authorize future military assistance to the police, following a meeting between Krisstersson and the heads of both forces on how to reduce violence from organized criminal gangs. It is not yet clear exactly which duties the military will take on.

“The wave of violence is unprecedented in Sweden, but it is also unprecedented in Europe, no other country has a situation like the one we have,” Kristersson commented in a televised speech.

“The police cannot do all the work themselves.”

According to the Swedish Police Authority’s annual reports, last year a total of 62 people were killed by gunfire, marking the deadliest year for shootings since the authorities started publishing data in late 2016.

Infographic: Sweden's Deadly Gun Violence | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

A total of 11 people were fatally shot last month alone, in addition to one person who died in a bomb blast. These 11 bring the death toll by firearms to 42 in 2023, a figure that may rise further yet with three months left until the end of the year.

September marks the second deadliest month on record for gun crime in Sweden, following only after December 2019 when 12 people were shot and killed.

end

EUROPE/HUNGARY/UKRAINE

The EU wants to pay off Hungary with their own money (money frozen) to the tune of 13 billion euros if Orban does not veto Ukraine aid.  I doubt if Orban will agree.

(zerohedge)

EU Wants To Pay Off Hungary To The Tune Of €13BN So Orban Doesn’t Veto Ukraine Aid

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has long been an opponent of the mainstay of EU policy on Ukraine, having also persistently criticized Kiev for discrimination against Hungarian minorities, and demanding that a 2017 law restricting the use of minority languages be changed. He’s also refused to ratify Sweden’s entry into NATO.

Orbán has further throughout the conflict stood against policies which escalate against Moscow, and has constantly warned against stumbling into a WW3 scenario involving direct NATO-Russia clash. He told Tucker Carlson in a recent interview that “the Third World War сould be knocking on our door so we have to be very careful.” With Budapest having been a consistent thorn in the side of the EU, Brussels now wants to pay the Hungarians off.

“The European Commission is preparing to unfreeze around €13 billion in funds for Hungary to try to avoid Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoing EU aid for Ukraine, in a move likely to draw criticism from the European Parliament,” Politico reports Tuesday.

“The Commission needs the unanimous backing of the bloc’s 27 countries for an update to the EU’s long-term budget, which includes a €50 billion funding pot for Ukraine,” the report adds.

Akin to what’s currently going down in Washington with a group of Republicans holding up Ukraine funding, Brussels may soon have its own Ukraine aid blockage problem. EU aid for Kiev which was previously approved runs out in December, hence the urgency for EU leadership in wanting to push through a new package.

A week ago, Orbán gave a speech declaring Hungary will no longer support Ukraine in any way unless certain significant policies are changed both in Kiev and in the European Union.

He stressed in the words given before parliament that “Hungary is doing everything for peace” but that “unfortunately the Russian-Ukrainian war continues, tens of thousands of people are victims.” Thus, he continued, “Diplomats must take control back from the hands of the soldiers, otherwise it will be in vain for women to wait for their sons and fathers and husbands to come home.”

The Hungarian leader has stood against ratcheting Western sanctions on Moscow, instead choosing to maintain a generally positive diplomatic relationship with the Kremlin.

He also a week ago charged that Kiev and its backers have cheated Budapest by “Ukrainian grain dumping” into his country. He had also laid out, per The Hill:

… that he was protesting a 2017 law in Ukraine that limits ethnic Hungarians from speaking their own language, particularly in schools and said Hungary would not support Ukraine on international issues “until the previous laws are restored.”

Needless to say EU officials are panicking, and are readying a lucrative quid pro quo with Hungary (based on freeing frozen funds related to the prior years’ so-called “rule of law” punitive measures”), so that EU aid to Ukraine doesn’t get blocked at a crucial moment that Washington funding is drying up.

END

POLAND, AUSTRIA AND CZECH REPUBLIC/MIGRANTS

Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic introduce border checks with Slovakia to curb illegal migration

(Brooke/Remix)

Poland, Austria, & Czech Republic  Introduce Temporary Border-Checks With Slovakia To Curb Illegal Migration

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Poland, Austria and Czech R. will all introduce random checks at the countries’ borders with Slovakia from midnight on Wednesday following an influx of illegal immigration.

Temporary checks will be conducted along the length of the border for an initial 10-day period until Oct. 13.

They will focus specifically on road and railway border crossings, although, pedestrians and cyclists may also be asked for documentation. Anyone within the vicinity of the border may be requested to identify themselves.

“The numbers of illegal migrants to the EU are starting to grow again,” said Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala following the announcement. “We don’t take the situation lightly.”

“Citizens need a valid passport or identity card to cross the border,” the Czech Interior Ministry added.

The Czech policy would also be adopted by neighboring Austria, the country’s Interior Minister Gerhard Karner confirmed.

Poland had already announced its intention to reintroduce checks on the Slovak border with the number of migrants along the Balkans migration route continuing to surge. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said last week he was “instructing Minister of Interior Mariusz Kamiński to check on buses, coaches, and cars crossing the border when it is suspected there could be illegal migrants on board.”

“In recent weeks, we detected and detained 551 illegal migrants at the border with Slovakia. This situation causes us to take decisive action,” Kaminski added.

Slovak caretaker Prime Minister Ludovit Odor acknowledged the growing issue of illegal migration in his country but insisted that the problem needs a European solution rather than individual nations restricting border access.

He claimed that the decision by the three neighboring countries had been fueled by the Polish government, which is involved in a tightly contested election campaign, with Poles heading to voting booths on Oct. 15.

“The whole thing has been triggered by Poland, where an election will soon take place, and the Czech Republic has joined in,” Odor said.

Slovakia revealed last month that the number of illegal migrants detained by its authorities this year had soared nine-fold to over 27,000. The majority of detainees comprise young men from the Middle East using the Balkan migratory route through Serbia as they seek to migrate to northwestern Europe.

The winner of Sunday’s general election in Slovakia, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has vowed to tackle the issue more robustly by promising to reintroduce border checks with neighboring Hungary.

“It will not be a pretty picture,” Fico told journalists as he threatened to use force to dispel illegal migrants detected on Slovak territory.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ROBERT H: TO US

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Fwd: Army War College Report Predicts Mass Casualties in Near-Peer Fight Against [Russia] – Analysis

With 77% of America’s youth unfit for duty, the best thing is allow Ukraine to expire in its present state and move on. This was never winnable. And if NATO tries to go it alone Europe will collapse. No  one has the money for such theatre. As it is Germany is on a the brink of economic collapse as industry shutters. 



Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for moreArmy War College Report Predicts Mass Casualties in Near-Peer Fight Against [Russia] – AnalysisSIMPLICIUS THE THINKEROCT 3 READ IN APP A few weeks ago the U.S. Army War College released a paper which was an urgent call for the U.S. armed forces to adapt to the modern style of warfare being innovated in the Ukrainian conflict. The paper made the rounds due to some startling admissions, which we’ll get to. But what’s most important to understand is that the paper represents a general major shift in thinking propagating throughout the entire sphere of the Atlanticist West, and was released in concert with several other key thinktank pieces and policy shifts announcement from the EU, NATO, etc., which holistically represent a mass internal panic deep within the structures of the West, and a subsequent need to urgently change their strategy.And this point is one of the central themes of the War College paper itself. Its opening preamble can be summarized in a single sentence: the current time period marked by the Ukrainian conflict represents the largest “inflection point” in 50 years of military history. The authors believe that the Yom Kippur War of 1973 was the previous most impactful inflection point. They recount how the U.S. army was demoralized by its experience in Vietnam, and inability to meet its objectives, followed by the fact that Israel almost lost to a Soviet-equipped Egypt in the Yom Kippur War.As a very brief and over-generalized backdrop, though Israel is listed as officially having “won” the Yom Kippur War, Egypt in fact achieved most of its political objectives, which was to seize some land east of the Suez in order to eventually take back the Sinai peninsula, which they did. And although Egypt made huge blunders that caused part of their army to be routed, ultimately the war proved to Israel, the U.S., and allies that the future would be dangerous as the Arabs were getting much stronger, particularly under Soviet backing. In fact, for anyone interested, just purely coincidentally there’s a new article from a week ago in the Jerusalem Post about the irony that years later, Israel views the Yom Kippur War as a somber experience whereas in Egypt it’s celebrated as a grand victory.Either way, the War College explains that as a result of this inflection period, the U.S. founded TRADOC (United States Army Training and Doctrine Command) school. Which is actually a network of schools tasked with creating new operational doctrines so that the U.S. military is ready for future conflict. In short, they were spooked by the developments of the previous years, and needed a way to “jump ahead” of the competition. This resulted in a series of new doctrines like the AirLand Battle I wrote about at length in this previous dissection of a U.S. internal thinkpiece:Dissecting West Point Think-tank’s New Analysis of Russia’s Military EvolutionSIMPLICIUS THE THINKER·JUN 21Dissecting West Point Think-tank's New Analysis of Russia's Military EvolutionThe Modern War Institute at West Point—a sort of think tank chaired by Mark Esper and which is a part of the Department of Military Instruction—released a very interesting in-depth analysis of Russia’s battlefield innovations in the SMO, called: THE RUSSIAN WAY OF WAR IN UKRAINE: A MILITARY APPROACH NINE DECADES IN THE MAKING.Read full story

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

2nd Smartest Guy in the World reviewed a substack by Makis (below) that’s staggering as it relates to potent role of IVERMECTIN (zinc ionophore) in reducing cancer risk (vaccine-induced TURBO cancers)

2nd smartest reviewed Ivermectin in Defeating Cancer and Other Common Chronic Diseases of Aging; powerful anticancer properties of Fenbendazole; Makis does superb scholarship here on IVM & cancer

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 3
 
READ IN APP
 

2nd Smartest Guy in the World

IVERMECTIN and CANCER, it has at least 15 anti-cancer mechanisms of action. Can Ivermectin Treat COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Induced Turbo Cancers? – 9 Ivermectin papers reviewed

A critically important article that further reinforces this Substack’s thesis that Ivermectin may cure turbo cancers; for example…end

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
Greenpeace Co-Founder: ‘Climate Alarmism Is 100% Untrue’One of the co-founders of the global environmental group Greenpeace has blown the whistle to warn the public that “climate alarmism… is 100% untrue.”READ MORE
WEF: Pushing ‘Coming Water Crisis’ Will Advance Globalist AgendaA World Economic Forum (WEF) official has declared that a coming water crisis will be used to control the public and advance the globalist agenda of the unelected corporate elite.READ MORE
Democrats Sue Wisconsin to Block Absentee Voter Witness RequirementsDemocrats are suing the state of Wisconsin to block witness requirements for absentee voter ballots.READ MORE
Kevin McCarthy Admits Matt Gaetz Has Him by Short Hairs, Says He Will ‘Probably’ Be Removed as SpeakerRepublican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) admitted that Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) motion to remove him will “probably” be successful.READ MORE
NY AG Letitia James Outraged as Judge Tosses 80% of Case against TrumpNew York Attorney General Letitia James was left outraged when a judge tossed 80% of her case against President Donald Trump out of court.READ MORE
Democrat Offers ‘Solution’ for Schoolgirls Forced to Shower with Males: ‘Utterly Deranged’An Arizona Democrat lawmaker has offered a “solution” to schoolgirls who are fearful after being forced to shower with male students.READ MORE
Democrat Congressman Carjacked at Gunpoint in Washington D.C, Just Blocks from CapitolDemocrat Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) was carjacked at gunpoint Monday night near his residence in the Navy Yard area of Washington, D.C.READ MORE
Matt Gaetz Officially Files Motion to Remove Kevin McCarthy as House SpeakerRepublican Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has officially filed a Motion to Vacate the Chair against House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).READ MORE
Most Americans Refuse to Comply with Biden’s Covid Shot Demands, Poll ShowsThe majority of Americans say they won’t comply with Democrat President Joe Biden’s demands for the public to take more Covid shots.READ MORE
Supreme Court Rejects Effort to Block Trump from Running for PresidentThe United States Supreme Court has rejected a case that seeks to block President Donald Trump from running in the 2024 presidential election.READ MORE
Karine Jean-Pierre Refuses to Answer amid Grilling over Biden’s Statement: ‘You Won’t Say What He Said Was True’White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre repeatedly refused to answer questions during a grilling about a recent statement by Democrat President Joe Biden.READ MORE
Gaetz Demands McCarthy Reveal ‘Secret Side Deal’ with Biden on Ukraine, Vows Motion to Vacate ‘This Week’Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has demanded House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reveal the details of a “secret side deal” he allegedly secured for Ukraine with President Joe Biden and the Democrats.READ MORE
Trump Gains Ground Among Minority Voters as Support for Biden Plummets, Poll ShowsPresident Donald Trump has seen his support among minority voters grow in recent months, a new poll has revealed.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

mRNA Shots Found in Hearts of People Who Died Suddenly, Study FindsREAD MORE… 
LATEST NEWS:
WEF: ‘Water Crisis’ Will Strip Billions of Their FreedomRead more…BREAKING: Trump Gets BIG WIN In NYC Court, Says ‘About 80%’ Of Case Will Be DismissedRead more…Democrat Hammered for Shutdown “False” Statement – And the GOP Quickly Sets the Record StraightRead more…Peter Doocy Roasts KJP Over Fire Alarm Stunt, Asks if Biden Would ‘Ever Get Out of a Meeting By Pulling a Fire Alarm?’Read more…Charlotte Sena, 9-year-old girl feared to have been abducted in…Read more…Schwarzenegger Told Americans ‘Screw Your Freedom,’ Now He Thinks He’s Still Got a ‘Home’ in the GOPRead more…Missing 9-Year-Old Charlotte Sena Found Alive—Suspect NabbedRead more…Donald Trump’s Attorneys Claim Judge Just Agreed that Statute of Limitations Have Run on 80% of Transaction in New York CaseRead more…

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
WEF: ‘Water Crisis’ Will Strip Billions of Their FreedomThe World Economic Forum (WEF) has unveiled the “next crisis” that will strip billions of citizens around the globe of their freedoms.READ THE FULL REPORT
mRNA Shots Found in Hearts of People Who Died Suddenly, Study FindsTraces of mRNA COVID shots are being detected in the hearts of dead people who died suddenly following cardiac arrest, a new peer-reviewed study has concluded.READ THE FULL REPORT
Matt Gaetz Makes Move, Files Motion to Vacate ChairIn a move that had been anticipated by many, U.S. House Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has filed a motion to vacate the chair.READ THE FULL REPORT
Pro-DeSantis PAC Poll Says He’s Losing to Trump and Nikki Haley in New Hampshire and South CarolinaA reputable Twitter/X account posted a poll with the link to the source.READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump’s Attorneys: Judge Just Agreed that Statute of Limitations Have Run on 80% of New York CaseToday was the first day of the civil case against Donald Trump in regard to alleged fraud in New York.READ THE FULL REPORT

END

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

end 

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

High prices certainly has an effect on gasoline demand. It plunged to one month lows

(zerohedge)

WTI Tumbles To 1-Month Lows As Gasoline Demand Plunges

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 10:43 AM

Oil prices are plunging overnight as worsening sentiment across markets over the last few days, spurred by a higher-for-longer outlook for global interest rates, has trumped any physical tightness fears even as Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed that they will continue output curbs until the end of the year.

API

  • Crude -4.21mm (unch exp)
  • Cushing +705k
  • Gasoline +3.95mm (+300k exp)
  • Distillates +349k (-400k exp)

DOE

  • Crude -2.22mm (unch exp)
  • Cushing +132k
  • Gasoline +6.48mm (+300k exp)
  • Distillates -1.27mm (-400k exp)

Crude inventories fell for the 3rd strauight week but stocks at the Cushing hub rose (+132k) for the first time in 8 weeks. Gasoline stocks soared by almost 6.5mm barrels – the biggest weekly build since Jan 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin returned to refilling the SPR last week – adding 300k barrels after the prior week’s drain…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks at the Cushing hub rose very marginally, keeping ‘tank bottom’ fears at bay for one more week…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production was flat at 12.9mm b/d (pre-COVID highs) as the rig count continues to tumble…

Source: Bloomberg

BUT, Gasoline demand continues to plunge, breaking well below 2022 seasonal levels on both a weekly and four-week average basis last week.

In fact, that actually puts it at lowest seasonal level since 1997 and nearly 1 million barrels a day below the 5-year average.

Sky high pump prices are clearly weighing on demand…

WTI was trading just below $87 ahead of the official data and slid lower after…

“Eventually it will be time to ‘sell the recession news’ in oil as demand tends to fall off sharply amid the onset of an economic downturn, but the evidence does not definitively suggest we are at that point just yet,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0501 UP  0.0033

USA/ YEN 148.96 DOWN .209  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2122 UP    0.0044

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3709 DOWN .0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR .10% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 135.38 PTS OR 0.78% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.82%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE:  ALL  MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:   ALL  MIXED  

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 135.38 PTS OR 0.78%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.10 PTS OR .10% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.82% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 711.06 PTS OR 0.78% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1825.20

silver:$21.20

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 106,52 DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.648%  DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.797% UP 5 AND  1//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.056 DOWN 1  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.901 DOWN 3  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.939 DOWN 3  BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0514 UP  0.0046 or 46  basis points 

USA/Japan: 148.85 DOWN 0.329 OR YEN UP 33 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2143  UP   0.0065 OR 65  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN  .0043 OR 43 BASIS pts  to 1.3751

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (XX) …XXX

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3143)

TURKISH LIRA:  27.57 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.797…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.747% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.881 DOWN 6  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.071 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 60.29  POINTS or 0.81%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 11.50 PTS OR 0.88%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 0.65 PTS OR 0.01%

Spain IBEX DOWN 53.20 PTS OR 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 47.84 PTS OR 0.12%

WTI Oil price  86.23  12: EST

Brent Oil:  87.88   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  99.65;   ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  32//100       

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.9395 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6550  UP 1  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM 

Euro vs USA: 1.0513  UP   0.0045   OR 45 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2147 UP   .0070 or 70 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.629%  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .797%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.03 DOWN   0.134 //YEN  UP 13  BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3735 UP .0026 CDN dollar DOWN 26  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 84.42

Brent OIL:  86.15

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.727%  

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7   BASIS PTS to 4.868% 

USA 2 YR BOND:  DOWN 10 PTS AT 5.046 % 

USA dollar index: 106.45 DOWN 27  BASIS POINTS 

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.56 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  99.58  UP 0   AND  3/100 roubles

GOLD  1821.15

SILVER: 21.00

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE UP 126.91 PTS OR 0.38% 

NASDAQ UP 210.64 PTS OR 1.45%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.36 DOWN 1.42 PTS (7.18)%

GLD: $169.14 DOWN 0.02 OR 0.012%

SLV/ $19.31 DOWN 0.13 OR 0.67%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Black Gold, Bond Yields, & The Buck Tumble Amid Macro Miasma

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Weak European retail sales overnight (worse then expected decline), Ugly mortgage apps data (very bad news), Dismal jobs data (bad news but wage growth slowing), Strong factory orders (good news, thanks to war), Disappointing Services surveys (with stagflationary signals), and Disastrous gasoline demand (seasonally lowest since 1997). Hard data keeps falling as soft data holds all the hope…

Source: Bloomberg

Not much to cheer on the soft-landing-believers and as such, rate-change expectations slipped (dovishly) lower…

Source: Bloomberg

But it was oil that made the headlines as OPEC+’s JMMC reaffirmed their planned production goals for the rest of the year and economic malaise out-feared supply tightness. WTI collapsed almost 5%, dropping back below $85. This is the biggest drop in oil since last September UK gilt implosion contagion…

…testing its 50DMA ($84.86)…

Source: Bloomberg

As soaring pump prices appear to have punctured the strong consumer narrative as gasoline demand collapsed (to its lowest since 1997 for this time of year)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the gasoline crack has all but collapsed (but jet fuel and diesel still paying well)…

Source: Bloomberg

And oil volatility is dragging volatility higher across all the other asset classes…

Source: Bloomberg

Just one more thing, as we noted above, the last time oil dropped like this, UK gilts imploded on the mini-budget fiasco which sent sterling to a 37 year low and multiple UK financial institutions were on the verge of blowing up (the BOE restarted QE).  Who is blowing up today?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields plunged (for a change) with the short-end outperforming, 2Y Yields down 10bps on the day (biggest drop since August), and down 14bps from intraday highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Which steepened the yield curve (2s30s) further…

Source: Bloomberg

The relationship between 2Y Yields and oil has been ‘complicated’ recently but today it was one-way traffic…

Source: Bloomberg

While the absolute spread between US and Japan 10-year yields has ballooned to more than 400bps (holding near levels not seen since 2001), when adjusted for the JPY-hedging costs, USTs are at their most expensive for Japanese investors since 2000 (though we note that the last few weeks have seen the richness relived a little as UST yields have soared). Across the pond, German investors can earn 12bps over Bunds (hedged), meaning there is an incentive for them to be buying USTs (from the Japanese maybe?)…

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates just won’t stop, now at multi-decade highs and massively decoupled from the rate at which the average homeowner’s mortgage is currently set at…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably – thanks in large part to QT – the mortgage spread to 10Y TSY is extremely high (Lehman and COVID lockdown crisis highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Breakevens are diverging aggressively with short-dated inflation expectations at their lowest since Dec 2020 while longer-dated BEs are at the highest in a year…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond vol is now notably higher than equity vol…

Source: Bloomberg

And after all that, US equity indices were mixed on the day with Nasdaq soaring and Small Caps lagging, just red after ramping up to unch.

Notably, Bespoke pointed out that the S&P has made lower lows on 33 of the past 50 trading days.

The dollar ended marginally lower, much less impacted than bonds or crude…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed modest gains on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold went nowhere, holding above $1800 and the March dip lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, if financial conditions hold this tightness, we can’t help but think the AI-bubble won’t be able to keep Nasdaq so rich relative to Small Caps…

Source: Bloomberg

And we’re seeing echoes of 1987 being MSG’d across desks… for stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

…And bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

Albert Edwards had some thoughts:

The equity market’s current resilience in the face of rising bond yields reminds me very much of events in 1987, when equity investors’ bullishness was eventually squashed.

And in a further parallel, currency turbulence in 1987 played a key role in exacerbating recession worries for an equity market priced for the start of a new economic cycle.

Just like in 1987, any hint of recession now would surely be a devastating blow to equities.

Brace!

END

EARLY MORNING TRADING

Defense Stocks Fall As Paralyzed House With No Speaker Puts US Ukraine Aid At Risk

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 08:50 AM

On Tuesday evening, Kevin McCarthy, a Republican, was voted out (216-to-210 vote) as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Hardline Republicans were angered by McCarthy’s willingness to fund Ukraine’s war while arguing that the money could have been better spent to protect the southern border and restore law and order in imploding major US cities. The historic ouster of the speaker has weighed on defense stocks as traders anticipate challenges for the new speaker in securing further funding for Ukraine.

“The conservative revolt that ousted McCarthy has left the chamber in a state of paralysis until a new speaker is found. That raises the chances of a US government shutdown next month and a delay in further Ukraine assistance,” Bloomberg said. 

In a note to clients, Goldman’s Alec Phillips said: 

All other things equal, the leadership change raises the odds of a government shutdown in November, though with several weeks left until the deadline, many outcomes are possible. With many policy disputes remaining and a $120bn difference between the parties on the preferred spending level for FY2024, it is difficult to see how Congress can pass the 12 necessary full-year spending bills before funding expires Nov. 17. The next speaker is likely to be under even more pressure to avoid passing another temporary extension—or additional funding for Ukraine—than former Speaker McCarthy had been.

On Wednesday morning, European defense stocks, such as Rheinmetall, Saab, BAE Systems, and Leonardo, slid in the cash market. Bloomberg said this was because of the oustering of McCarthy. 

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall dropped as much as 4.8%. 

Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab fell 3%. 

British multinational arms, security, and aerospace company BAE Systems slid 3.5%

And Italian defense contractor Leonardo was down 2%. 

In the US, uncertainty over funding will likely weigh on defense stocks. The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense Index has been running into resistance for much of this year. 

Washington’s endless stream of taxpayer funds to Ukraine has benefited the military-industrial complex. Now, it appears that the pipeline of easy money is in question due to the ouster of McCarthy. 

END

TUCKER CARLSON..

end

II USA DATA

ADP private jobs report which is generally bullish signals the weakest labour market since Jan 2021

(zerohedge/ADP

ADP Employment Report Signals Weakest Labor Market Since Jan 2021

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 08:23 AM

After ADP’s reports printed almost perfectly in line with BLS last month (+177k vs +187k), all eyes are on today’s print, which was expected to decline to +150k. Instead it plunged to just +89k – that is the lowest jobs addition since Jan 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The ADP print is around half the expectation for Friday’s NFP print of +170k. Large firms dominated the weakness…

Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services saw large declines in jobs (ADP says professional business services down 32K, BUT JOLTS reported a 509K increase in professional and business services job openings!!!!)

“We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist ADP.

“Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.”

Job stayers saw a 5.9 percent year-over-year pay increase in September, marking the 12th straight month of slowing growth.

Pay gains also shrank for job changers, to 9 percent, down from 9.7 percent in August.

Finally, as we noted recently, the ADP Research Institute, the research arm of the payroll processing firm, released a new report about a ‘real-time way’ to measure worker motivation. What they found is that a majority of workers aren’t motivated, and this might impact long-term productivity. 

Researchers said, “We designed the Employee Motivation and Commitment Index as a tool to help define optimal functioning for employees and specific roles within an organization. The score measures how employees feel about their place at work and whether they’re thriving and growing.” 

ADP researchers survey 2,500 workers each month and have noticed the EMC index has slid throughout 2023:

 “In August 2023, the EMC Index fell from 108 to 100, its lowest point since June 2022. The index peaked in December 2022 at 121 after a year of robust pay growth, strong hiring, and the rise of remote work.” 

They said, “We found a strong relationship between output and worker motivation and commitment.” And noted, “A person’s industry might influence their level of motivation and commitment.” 

The biggest takeaway is that most workers aren’t motivated at work, which could soon impact productivity. There was no clear explanation as to why workers are slacking off, whether they believe their labor is worth much more (look what’s happening with the unionized workforce) or if these folks are spending too much time on TikTok.

Workers who are unmotivated in low-skilled/low-paying jobs must understand automation and artificial intelligence will displace them by the end of the decade. Now is the time to get retrained in a field less likely to be replaced by robots (here’s a tip: become an airline pilot). 

Sliding motivation at work is yet another ominous sign ‘Bidenomics’ is a failure. 

end

This is 70% of GDP: both PMI and ISM confirm stagflation as growth slows and prices re accelerate

(zerohedge)

Services Surveys (PMI AND ISM) Confirm Stagflation Scare: Growth Slows, Prices Re-Accelerate

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 10:08 AM

Despite the plunge in ‘hard’ data in September, the Manufacturing PMI rose to six-month highs (but still sub-50). However, more notably,  the Services PMI tumbled to 50.1 (barely in expansion), its lowest level since January.

Source: Bloomberg

ISM Services – for once – agreed with PMI Services, sliding to 53.6…

Source: Bloomberg

…with new orders plunging and employment tumbling and prices sticky…

Source: Bloomberg

As the PMI survey noted, In line with another substantial uptick in cost burdens, service providers hiked their selling prices in September.

The pace of charge inflation accelerated to the fastest since July as firms sought to pass through greater costs to customers. 

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“The final PMI data for September add to indications that the US economy has started to cool again after a resurgence of growth earlier in the summer. Inflationary pressures in the service sector meanwhile remain uncomfortably sticky.

“The biggest change in recent months has been the waning in demand for consumer services, such as travel, tourism and recreation, along with a slump in financial services activity.

“Providers of consumer-oriented services report that a revival of demand in the spring has gradually lost momentum amid the ratcheting up of interest rates and increased cost of living at a time of diminishing savings. In the financial services sector, financial conditions are tightening and uncertainty about the outlook is subduing confidence. Both sectors are now reporting falling activity levels, taking away a major source of support to the wider economy’s expansion.

Finally, the economy therefore looks to be moving into the fourth quarter on a weak footing, hinting at slower GDP growth as we head toward the end of the year…

And just to rub some more salt into the wound – prices are rising…

“Average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile continue to rise at a rate well above the pre-pandemic average, with service sector charge inflation remaining especially stubborn, in part due to recent oil price hikes.”

So – growth slowing and prices rising – we love the smell of stagflation in the morning.

END

This is deadly to the uSA economy:  USA mortgage rates approaching 8%

(zerohedge)

Exploding Mortgage Rates, Approaching 8%, Send Mortgage Demand To Lowest Since 1996

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 11:05 AM

As we previewed yesterday, the BankRate average 30Y US mortgage this morning has spiked 8 basis points to the highest level in 23 years – one not seen August 25, 2000 – a mindblowing 7.88%, which is insane when one considers that three years ago the same mortgage was less than 3%.

One thing is certain: nobody, and we mean nobody, who can’t afford 100% cash down, can afford to purchase a home today.

For context, the chasm between the effective rate of around 3.6% that current homeowners have on average and the shocking 7.9% current mortgage rate is impassible…

Indeed, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association confirms this: according to the MBS, total mortgage demand fell 6% compared with the previous week.

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week as markets digested the recent upswing in Treasury yields,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “As a result, mortgage applications ground to a halt, dropping to the lowest level since 1996.”

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 6% for the week and were 22% lower than the same week one year ago. And as purchases continued to sink, applications to refinance a home loan have absolutely imploded – for obvious reasons: there is nobody in the market that hasn’t managed to refinance at a lower rate in the past 23 years – and dropped another 7% for the week and were 11% lower than the same week one year ago. Refinances now make up less than one-third of all mortgage applications. According to CNBC, just two years ago, when rates were setting multiple record lows, refinance demand made up roughly three-quarters of all mortgage applications.

“The purchase market slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995, as the rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market,” said Kan, who also noted that adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) applications increased.

The ARMs made up 8% of purchase applications, up from 6.7% about a month ago, when interest rates were slightly lower. ARM’s offer lower rates but are fixed for a shorter term, usually five or 10 years.

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

McCarthy will not seek speaker position in a re vote and Nehls nominates Trump, which is probably the ideal choice

(zerohedge)

McCarthy Won’t Seek Speaker Position In Re-Vote; Trump Nominated By Nehls

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 07:21 PM

Update (1920T): Newly ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will not seek reelection to the post when the chamber convenes to select a new candidate.

According to Just the News, “McCarthy was removing his name from consideration when the House convenes to select a new speaker.”

Following McCarthy’s ouster, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) called the former Speaker a “feature of the swamp.”

“Kevin McCarthy couldn’t keep his word. He made an agreement in January regarding the way Washington would work, and he violated that agreement. We are $33 trillion in debt. We are facing $2.2 trillion annual deficits,” said McCarthy, adding “We face a de-dollarization globally that will crush Americans working class Americans. Kevin McCarthy is a feature of the swamp. He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favors.”

Meanwhile, Congressman Troy Nehls has nominated former President Donald Trump for Speaker.

Here’s where Goldman’s Alec Phillips sees things:

  1. The House has voted to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker. House Financial Services Chairman McHenry (R-NC) will temporarily serve as caretaker speaker (speaker pro tempore) until a new speaker is elected. Legislative activity in the House will temporarily cease as Republicans reorganize. Selecting a speaker in January took 5 days, and it is possible the next selection could take several days as well.
  2. Although possible, we think it is very unlikely that the House will remain without a leader until Nov. 17, when the recent extension of spending authority expires. In the unlikely event that the House remains without a speaker in mid-November, we believe the speaker pro tempore would have the power to bring another temporary funding extension up for a vote, though the rules are somewhat unclear on this point and would ultimately come down to a decision by the House Parliamentarian.
  3. All other things equal, the leadership change raises the odds of a government shutdown in November, though with several weeks left until the deadline, many outcomes are possible. With many policy disputes remaining and a $120bn difference between the parties on the preferred spending level for FY2024, it is difficult to see how Congress can pass the 12 necessary full-year spending bills before funding expires Nov. 17. The next speaker is likely to be under even more pressure to avoid passing another temporary extension—or additional funding for Ukraine—than former Speaker McCarthy had been.
  4. We continue to view a shutdown in Q4 as the base case, likely when funding expires Nov. 17. That said, while a leadership vacuum raises the odds of a government shutdown, we still view a prolonged shutdown (i.e., more than 2-3 weeks) as unlikely given the political consequences of certain aspects of a shutdown, particularly a failure to pay servicemembers, which occurs twice a month (the next pay date at risk is Dec. 1).

*  *  *

Update (1635ET): After eight tumultuous months of pandering and lies (according to Rep. Matt Gaetz), Kevin McCarthy has been removed as Speaker of the House for the first time in US history.

The final vote was 216-210.

The last time the House tried to evict a speaker was 1910, which failed.

Rep. Patrick McHenry is now the acting speaker, as announced by the House Clerk. The next step is for the chamber to begin rounds of voting to elect a new Speaker, as we saw eight months ago.

He’s just recessed the House so that the parties can meet and confer on a “way forward.” It was quite the tantrum…

The speaker pro tempore is imbued with all the powers of an elected speaker of the House. McCarthy hand-picked McHenry (R-N.C.) for this role when he was elected speaker in January. The pro tempore is kept as a secret, held by the clerk of the House, until a speaker is removed or incapacitated, a process designed after Sept. 11, 2001, to ensure continuity of government. -Politico

And other last requests? https://t.co/yCjZ6SoiI0— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2023

Oh brother…

*  *  *

Update (1630ET): The House is now voting on the motion to remove McCarthy, and – unless Democrats intervene, Gaetz has enough votes to vacate him as Speaker after six Republicans voted ‘aye’ (Biggs, Buck, Burchett, Crane, Gaetz and Good).

Update (1435ET): The House is now voting on whether to move forward with the ouster vote, or to ‘table’ it – which would save McCarthy.

Update: The ‘motion to table’ has failed, and the House will now move forward with debate ahead of a vote on Gaetz’s effort to remove McCarthy.

end

Meta (Facebook) lays off thousands of employees (21,000) as VR fails

(zerohedge)

VR Fail? Meta Will Lay Off Employees In Metaverse Unit On Wednesday

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 07:45 AM

There was a time during the Covid pandemic when Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse was supposed to change everything. But with workers returning to the office and the pandemic over, the metaverse has become an epic failure. 

Meta’s Reality Labs division, working on its virtual reality tech, laid off workers and reduced spending earlier this year in what Zuckerberg has called the “year of efficiency.”

Reuters reports, citing multiple sources, that Reality Labs’ division focused on creating high-tech chips for virtual reality devices will slash its workforce on Wednesday. 

Employees found out about the layoffs in an internal work chat on Tuesday. The message said Meta would notify workers about their job status early Wednesday morning, according to the source.

Reuters could not determine the number of layoffs in the Facebook Agile Silicon Team, or FAST, unit, which has 600 employees developing custom chips to equip Meta’s VR devices. A restructuring has been expected for two quarters when Meta hired a new executive to oversee the unit. 

“If the cuts are deep, they could hamper Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s project to build augmented and virtual reality products,” Reuters said. 

At the moment, Meta sells Quest and smart glasses devices, but neither has turned out to be a success. As we’ve noted: “The Metaverse Was A Pandemic Pipe Dream” and pointed out that Zuck has been hit with a trifecta of recent failed product launches:

  1. Metaverse
  2. Smart Glasses
  3. Threads

Since November of last year, Meta has cut 21,000 jobs as it reduces costs amid a slump in revenue growth, soaring inflation, and concerns about flooding metaverse, smart glasses, and Threads. 

Meta-bust. 

END

A very important read today from Simon White showing that the bond vigilantes are back and will pose the biggest risk for yields

(Simon White/Bloomberg)

Bond Heretics, Not Bond Vigilantes, Are Biggest Risk For Yields

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The biggest medium-term risk for bonds is not from buyers demanding a lower price, but from multi-asset managers who see little need for holding much government debt at all, at any price.

Bond vigilantes are back in the spotlight.

The surge in US and global yields to the highest in more than a decade has prompted speculation that investors are seeking greater compensation to hold government debt as the inflation rate remains elevated and fiscal deficits swell.

Treasury yields are decoupling from usually reliable underlying drivers, such as the strength of manufacturing or the price ratio of copper to gold.

It’s the same thing with a fair value model that factors in oil, central-bank rates and the shape of the yield curve.

US 10-year yields at around 4.7% are now almost 50 basis points above the model’s value.

Term premium — essentially the difference between the yield and the expected short-term rate — has begun to accelerate higher, and is back to being positive in the US, pushing the yield curve steeper.

On longer-term bonds, term premium has been in secular decline over most of the last four decades, initially as inflation expectations were re-anchored after the stagflation of the 1970s.

It continued to fall as contained inflation flipped the stock-bond correlation to negative, making Treasuries an attractive hedge for stocks – through dampening portfolio volatility and increasing risk-adjusted returns – while also acting as a recession hedge.

Term premium was further depressed by quantitative easing.

But in today’s elevated inflation regime, the stock-bond correlation is positive again.

Treasuries are losing their efficacy as a portfolio hedge.

And their usefulness as a recession hedge is on shakier ground, as the next growth shock could quite conceivably be accompanied by an inflation shock, with stocks and bonds falling together.

Over the last 20 years or so, the traditional 60/40-like portfolio — one that allocates 60% of money to stocks and 40% to bonds — has delivered positive risk-adjusted returns on a par with similar approaches using assets like commodities or gold instead of bonds.

But in the 1970s’ inflation regime, a 60/40 strategy with Treasuries did very poorly, both outright and versus other 60/40 portfolios.

Portfolios using the 60/40 approach, vol-targeting and risk-parity strategies own hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars in Treasuries.

But if the very reasons for owning them – their portfolio-smoothing properties and recession protection – can no longer be taken for granted, managers may question owning many of them at all, no matter what the price.

In a world of high cash rates, owning more equities may end up looking more attractive – the return of TINA (There Is No Alternative), but with a vengeance (however ill-advised that may be).

There will always be demand for government debt, from households, banks and liability-matchers. But for a large constituency, owning USTs is a choice.

With non-believers, there’s no need for vigilantism, just a swift exit past the pews and out of the church of bonds – and even higher yields as a consequence.

end

An attack on California

(Crabtreee/RealClearWire)

Trump, Newsom, And DeSantis – The Odd Throuple

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Wire,

Appearing at the annual California Republican Party convention Friday, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took an unusual political tack: They not only heaped scorn on President Biden and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, but on the state of California itself.

“California really is the petri dish for American liberalism,” DeSantis told a dinner crowd of some 350 Republicans at the Anaheim Marriott. “What Biden is doing are things that California was doing many years ago. What California is doing now is likely what a second Biden term would do, or God forbid, Kamala Harris, or God forbid, Newsom himself.”

A few hours earlier, at a sold-out luncheon with a crowd four times as large, Trump used his singular rhetorical style to make similar assertions. Expanding the hit list beyond Biden and Newsom to four members of California’s congressional delegation (Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and Maxine Waters), Trump said, “Guess who is running your state? Bad people. It’s becoming a symbol of our nation’s decline.”

Warming to the subject matter, Trump continued: “Gavin Newsom and the far-left Communists in Sacramento…San Francisco and L.A., cities which are absolutely being destroyed rapidly on a daily basis, have given you sanctuary cities, wide open borders, vast homeless encampments, and out-of-control taxes.”

The former president also referred to Biden and his administration’s economic advisers as “lunatics,” vowed that if returned to the White House he’d investigate the “Marxist monsters unleashing mayhem” on the streets of Los Angeles and San Francisco, and called Newsom an “environmental maniac.” When it came to California’s governor, however, Trump’s heart didn’t quite seem to be in it. He quickly amended his statement to say that Newsom was appeasing California’s environmentalists “for political reasons,” adding as an aside that as president he and Newsom had worked well together.

Trump expressed no similar sentiment for his fellow Republican who occupied the governor’s mansion in Tallahassee, whom he ridiculed in a lengthy riff about the time DeSantis asked for Trump’s endorsement in his first gubernatorial election. A member of Congress at the time, DeSantis was trailing far behind in the GOP primary. After he endorsed DeSantis, his campaign started soaring, Trump recalled.

“I said, ‘Let’s do it,’ and this guy went up like a rocket,” Trump said, claiming that he, not DeSantis, was responsible for turning Florida Republican red. Trump also boasted about receiving more than a million votes more than DeSantis did in 2020.

Trump went on to wallow in his irritation at DeSantis’ “no comment” response to a reporter’s question last year about a presidential run. “That means he’s running!” Trump said. “And I started hitting him very early. I hit him hard, and he’s crashing like a bird seriously wounded in flight.”

If Trump sounded like he was making up for lost time, there was a reason: He skipped Wednesday’s debate at the scenic Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, and he wasn’t able to immediately rebut criticism from DeSantis and Chris Christie implying that Trump was wimping out.

Moreover, even before the debate, DeSantis sensed it would be nearly impossible to break out of the bickering pack of seven Republican candidates, all desperate to shed their second-tier status and cut into Trump’s gaping lead.

So with the focus of the political world on California, Team DeSantis released a campaign ad a day before the debate teasing the real showdown he’s counting on to change his trajectory: a mano a mano cage match between himself and Gavin Newsom over their ideals, ideology, and records as mega-state governors.

After rattling off a series of comparisons between the state of Florida and California on violent crime, government deficits, and the economy, the ad wraps up with the words “Revival vs. Decline” flashing on the screen in bold letters against black-and-white images of a sunglass-clad DeSantis staring down a scowling Newsom.

“Florida vs. California, conservative vs. progressive – It’s the debate we should be having at the national level,” the ad quotes Fox Business host Stuart Varney intoning.

Actually, it is the debate Americans are already having – with the two governors leading the conversation joined by Trump, who likes taking pointed potshots at both Newsom and DeSantis. But there is a wrinkle, as is almost always the case with The Donald. Trump’s penchant for making all politics personal means that the three-way conversation has the feel of a tag-team wrestling match that doesn’t break along party lines: DeSantis is fighting them both.

For his part, Newsom noticed DeSantis’ pre-debate trolling – and responded with some of his own. California’s governor played the smart-alecky host showing up at the Republicans’ Wednesday debate where he extolled California’s weather, lauded the scenic Reagan library, and jousted good-naturedly with Fox News host Sean Hannity about California’s sky-high gasoline prices. Then he got down to business, taking dead aim at DeSantis. As Newsom worked the post-debate spin room, he heckled DeSantis for “taking the bait” and agreeing to the faceoff, set to take place Nov. 30 with Hannity moderating.

“DeSantis looks small debating a California governor that’s not running for president,” Newsom told a throng of reporters. “He’s getting smaller by the day.” Newsom also indicated that the animus between him and DeSantis is genuine, calling Florida’s governor a “liar” and a “hypocrite” who bullies “marginalized communities.”

Newsom insists he’s not running for president himself – at least not in this cycle – but that hasn’t stopped the swirling speculation that he’s operating a shadow campaign and is ready to jump in if Biden isn’t able to answer the bell. On Friday night in Anaheim, DeSantis fired back, hitting Newsom and Biden on gas prices, stubborn inflation, and what he cast as a collapse of the American Dream. For the first time in the history of the Golden State, he told the crowd in the Anaheim Marriott ballroom, more Americans were leaving California than arriving. Many of them were arriving in Florida he added, appreciative of lower taxes and an absence of Democrats trying to micromanage their lives.

“To me, the debate about what state is governed better, Florida or California, that debate has already been answered by people voting with their feet,” DeSantis said. Speaking less than a mile from the entrance of Disneyland, DeSantis began his speech with a puckish reference to his prominent role in the culture wars as the nemesis of the Disney Company.

It was this battle that prompted Newsom to throw down the gauntlet last year when he went up on Florida airwaves targeting DeSantis’ war on woke and his socially conservative policies on abortion and public-school curriculum.

“Freedom, it’s under attack in your state,” Newsom argued in the spot. “Republican leaders – they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors.”

DeSantis returned the favor earlier this year when visiting  San Francisco, a city Newsom ran for two terms as mayor, and touring the city’s homeless encampments in the Tenderloin district, a denizen of fentanyl dealing and overdoses. He then tweeted out photos of tents and squalor, labeling the city a “dumpster fire.” 

DeSantis seems to like his chances in a battle against Biden or Newsom, but that might be fantasy land. The massive obstacle in his path isn’t a Democratic president or a Democratic governor. It’s the most recent Republican president.

In recent weeks, the gap between Trump and DeSantis has grown to a chasm, increasing as each criminal indictment against the former president has piled up at his feet. Trump is now 43.9 percentage points ahead of DeSantis in the RealClearPolitics Average of polls, a 27-point jump in six months.

That gap was on full display at the California GOP convention. Trump, the political reality TV star, attracted a larger crowd than DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy combined. He relished the attention, captivating his audience with his fiery freewheeling riffs, humorous jabs, wild exaggerations, and appalling insults.

Trump spent the first 10 minutes telling  the largely supportive audience that he would have won California – a state he lost by more than 5 million votes in 2020 – if not for a “rigged election.” The former president also promised to take on “ultra-left-wing liars, losers, creeps, perverts and freaks” that, he said, “are devouring the future of this state like a swarm of locusts.”

When it comes to rampant smash-and-grab thefts undermining retail businesses from here to Philadelphia, Trump offered a simple but shocking solution. “We will immediately stop all of the pillaging and theft very simply: If you rob a store, you can fully expect to be shot as you are leaving that store – shot,” Trump said.

He promised to stand up to “crazy Nancy Pelosi,” who he said had “ruined San Francisco,” then shifted to mock her husband, who was a victim of a brutal attack in the family’s San Francisco home last October.

“How’s her husband doing, anybody know?” he asked a crowd that laughed uncomfortably in response. “And she’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house – which obviously didn’t do a very good job.”

Although Trump put most of the blame for the country’s ills on Democrats, toward the end of his remarks he punched hard at DeSantis too. 

“I’m the only candidate that [Biden and the Democrats] don’t want to run against – they’ll take DeSanctimonious in about two seconds,” he remarked.

He then rattled off the results of the most recent Morning Consult poll, showing him with 63% support nationwide compared to 12% for DeSantis. And in a recent CNN poll, DeSantis fell to fifth place in the New Hampshire primary, Trump jeered.

Here in California, Trump holds an enormous, nearly 50% lead over DeSantis in the primary. Thanks to a new change in state Republican election rules, which the Republican National Committee still must approve, if Trump wins more than 50% of the March 5 primary vote, he would secure all 169 of the state’s delegates. If no candidate hits that threshold, delegates will be awarded proportionally.

By now, DeSantis is accustomed to Trump’s slings and arrows. In the ballroom Friday night DeSantis seemed more relaxed and natural, sprinkling his remarks with quotes from Reagan and offering Reaganesque flourishes about American renewal and this generation’s “rendezvous with destiny.” He appeared to acknowledge his underdog status in the race but also his commitment to soldier on in what he described as a moral obligation to reverse the country’s trajectory.

DeSantis also seemed slightly amused by all of Trump’s attention earlier in the day.

“I understand that one of my residents was here earlier saying that he turned Florida red,” he remarked. “All I will say is, Ronald Reagan made the point [that] there’s no limit to what you can do when you don’t care who gets the credit. I just wish if he was the one that turned Florida red, that he wouldn’t have turned Georgia and Arizona blue because that’s not been good for us at all.”

In an earlier Friday interview, DeSantis addressed Newsom’s attempt to ridicule him for agreeing to debate in the first place and brushed it off as disingenuous campaign jousting.

“You know Sean [Hannity] asked him to debate. He said yes. So, then he asked me,” DeSantis recounted. “I’m like, ‘I’ll do it. Let’s do it.’ And now he’s acting like ‘Why do you want to debate me?’ Well, I’m debating you because you asked to do it, so let’s go and get it done.”

“I do think it will be good, it will be instructive,” he added. “These are the types of debates America really needs to have.”

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.

end

Food stamps will now be harder to get from Oct 1 onward

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Food Stamps Will Be Harder To Get From October

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 09:05 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

This month, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits will get a boost, but eligibility requirements have changed.

The new rules, which went into effect Oct. 1, stipulate that able-bodied adults without dependents between the ages of 52 and 54 will have to prove that they are actively working, training, or in school. Before, those between the ages of 18 and 52 had to prove they are working at least 80 hours per month, in school, or involved in a training program to get the SNAP benefits.

The age requirement was expanded as part of the debt ceiling deal that was passed in Congress and signed by President Joe Biden earlier this year. The age requirement will expand by another year in October 2024, while the new requirements will be in effect until Oct. 1, 2030.

With the recent changes, the left-wing Center on Budget and Policy Priorities warned that more than 750,000 “older adults” are at risk of losing SNAP benefits due to the “expansion of the existing, failed SNAP work-reporting requirement.” The requirements initiated under the debt ceiling deal were the largest changes made to the SNAP, or food stamps, in decades.

“The expansion of this requirement would take food assistance away from large numbers of people, including many who have serious barriers to employment as well as others who are working or should be exempt but are caught up in red tape,” it said.

It was part of a deal between President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) several months ago. At the time, Mr. McCarthy said that “what work requirements actually do [is to] help people get a job.”

Republicans have tried for decades to expand work requirements for these government assistance programs, arguing they result in more people returning to the workforce. “We’re going to return these programs to being a life vest, not a lifestyle. A hand up, not a handout and that has always been the American way,” Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters in June.

A U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson told The Hill that there are some exceptions to the new requirements. They include veterans, homeless people, and people aged 18 to 24 who aged out of foster care situations, the spokesperson said.

Those who have a mental or physical limitation, have a child aged 18 or younger living in their home, or pregnant women are also exempt, the spokesperson added.

At the same time, individuals who already get SNAP and still qualify will see their benefits increase starting Oct. 1, said the USDA. Benefit changes for SNAP are based on the Consumer Price Index that measures inflation for June 2022.

“The maximum allotments will increase for the 48 states and D.C., Alaska, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” the agency said.

“The maximum allotment for a family of four in the 48 states and D.C., will be $973,” and allotments “for a family of four will range from $1,248 to $1,937 in Alaska,” while “maximum allotments for a family of four in Hawaii will decrease to $1,759.

The minimum benefit for all 48 states and the District of Columbia will stay the same at $23, according to the USDA.

The average family started receiving about $90 less per month in March, although some households dropped by up to $250, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Fraud?

Last month, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) warned that the food stamp program is losing some $1 billion per month due to errors and fraud as she announced legislation designed to deal with the alleged monthly losses.

“Families across the country are going hungry while bureaucrats are jumping the line to gobble up SNAP dollars, either as a meal ticket to beef up state budgets or a self-serve buffet of benefits for themselves or others who do not qualify,” the senator said.

“I’m snapping back! It’s time for states at fault to pay the piper and eat the costs of their taxpayer waste. Instead of overserving bureaucrats, let’s end the waste and set a place at the table for hungry families,” Ms. Ernst added.

Other Details

Earlier this year, the federal government ended its public health emergency over COVID-19, which ended a booster program for all SNAP recipients. The duration of those extra payments was originally tied directly to the duration of the public health emergency, but that was changed in December 2022 and the final pandemic-boosted SNAP payments went out at the end of February.

The emergency program was enacted by Congress at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 and expanded a year later. Originally, the extra benefits were intended to continue as long as the COVID-19 public health emergency was in force before it expired.

SNAP benefits can rise and fall with inflation and other factors. Maximum benefits went up by 12 percent in October to reflect an annual cost-of-living adjustment boosted by higher prices for foods and other goods. But payments went down for those who also receive Social Security because of the 8.7 percent cost-of-living increase in that program on Jan 1.

end

They are crippling Mike Lindell  (My pillow guy)

(zerohedge)

IRS Hits MyPillow With Five Audits: Mike Lindell

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 08:05 PM

Last week we noted that MyPillow has been “crippled” by American Express, according to CEO Mike Lindell.

On Saturday, Lindell said that his company is now facing five IRS audits related to employees who worked remotely during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It started in California. Now there’s three other states that are coming at MyPillow. And Steve, it’s disgusting,” Lindell told Bannon on the “War Room” podcast.

“They just keep attacking. Now they’re going after our employees. They made it very personal,” he added.

Lindell says the audits are punishment for supporting President Donald Trump and claims that the 2020 US election were stolen.

“This is something that hasn’t happened in 15 years, and all of a sudden there’s 5 IRS audits against MyPillow in three different years,” said Lindell, who’s also facing a billion-dollar defamation lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems and anotehr from Smartmatic.

In July, MyPillow auctioned off equipment from its Minnesota pillow factory after the company lost more than $100 million in retail sales, Lindell said at the time.

“It was a massive, massive cancellation,” said Lindell. “We lost $100 million from attacks by the box stores, the shopping networks, the shopping channels, all of them did cancel culture on us.”

The stores which dropped MyPillow products include;

  • Walmart
  • Bed Bath & Beyond
  • Slumberland Furniture

In response, Lindell auctioned off more than 850 pieces of ‘surplus equipment’ online, including sewing machines, industrial fabric spreaders, conveyor belts, electric forklifts, and more.

According to Lindell, the company is also subleasing some of its manufacturing space because the packaging for direct sales is different than what the company required when producing products for large retailers.

“We kind of needed a building and a half, but now with these moves we’re making, we can get it down to our one building,” he said.

“If the box stores ever came back we could have it if we needed it, but we don’t need that,” Lindell continued. “It affected a lot of things when you lose that big of a chunk [of revenue].“

end

Jim Jordan To Run For House Speaker

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 10:25 AM

Jim Jordan (R-OH), the man who said he didn’t want the job, is running for House Speaker to replace Kevin McCarthy (R-INO).

A firebrand Congressional investigator (or angry letter-sender, depending on how you define progress), Jordan was reportedly having conversations with House GOP allies, and will reportedly throw his hat in the ring, Politico reported on Tuesday.

Jordan, who once challenged McCarthy for the speakership before becoming his biggest defender among conservative hardliners, has grown in popularity with the conference in recent years, but some centrists and rank-and-file members may be cool to the idea of his ascension given his role in helping force out former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). -Politico

“We’ve had a lot of people reach out to us, asking me to do it, because I think we can. We’ll see if that happens, but I think I can,” Jordan said Wednesday morning after leaving the Speaker’s Office.

Jordan has the support of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY).

Did talk of ‘Speaker Trump’ convince Jordan to go for the job?

Another name floating around is Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), who’s considered a top contender to replace McCarthy.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES.

Judge issues a gag order after Trump targets clerk who maybe the girl friend of Schumer

(Yang/EpochTimes)

NY Judge Issues Gag Order After Trump Targets Clerk

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 07:05 PM

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump attended day two of the civil fraud case against him that’s gone to trial in New York. After flip-flopping several times on his opinion of the presiding judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, he made a disparaging post on social media mid-day about Justice Engoron’s staffer.

Justice Engoron is known to regularly confer with his clerk Allison Greenfield on cases. President Trump had made a post on Truth Social, linking to an Instagram account with a photo of Ms. Greenfield with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), attacking her and claiming she was “running” the case and making unsubstantiated claims about their relationship. The post was amplified by a campaign email blast on Tuesday, and millions had seen it.

When the court broke for a lunch break, two closed-door meetings were held. After a delay, the trial resumed at 3 p.m. and the judge explained that he had ordered the post be taken down.

The post was deleted by the time the trial resumed.

“Personal attacks on members of my court staff are unacceptable and inappropriate,” Justice Engoron said. He added that he had already warned both parties against such attacks on Monday.

“Consider this a gag order on all parties with respect to posting or publicly speaking about any member of my staff,” he said, adding that violations of this order would not be tolerated and would result in sanctions.

President Trump’s legal team has already been sanctioned by Justice Engoron multiple times, who ruled that the attorneys had made “frivolous” arguments repeatedly even after he had dismissed them.

First Testimony

Last September, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued the former president claiming he defrauded the state by inflating his net worth to obtain more favorable deals from insurers and banks between 2011 and 2021. She is seeking $250 million in damages and to bar President Trump and his two adult sons from doing business in the state.

The judge has already ruled President Trump liable for fraud and ordered the dissolution of the Trump Organization, and the trial will deal with several other claims Ms. James made in regard to falsifying financial statements, as well as the fate of President Trump’s businesses and properties.

After repeated attempts from President Trump’s side to delay the case from going to trial, the case kicked off Monday with an unprecedented appearance from the former president. He entered the courthouse last minute, gave multiple remarks to the press, and closely scrutinized the evidence presented in court from the front row.

President Trump, who is also polling as the frontrunner in the 2024 presidential elections, told reporters he would much rather be campaigning, but was attending the trial to “expose” the “fraud” and the “scam” that had been committed against him by what he described as a “rigged” prosecutor, case, and judge.

Donald Bender, former partner at tax investigation firm Mazars USA, was the first to take to the witness stand. He was questioned by Kevin Wallace, attorney for the prosecution, on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, and was to be cross-examined by the defense Tuesday afternoon.

Mr. Bender worked closely with the Trump Organization from 2011 to 2021, and prepared President Trump’s personal tax returns from 2009 to 2018. He said he spent about half his time working on the Trump Organization and frequently went to the Trump Tower offices.

Mr. Bender was shown document after document from 2011 to 2020, and asked repeatedly whether he would have submitted the financial statements if he knew that the Trump Organization had withheld information.

The prosecution sought to establish that it was the Trump Organization’s responsibility to provide accurate accounting, not Mazars.

Mr. Bender testified to a letter from the Trump Organization that contained language stating it was responsible for the accurate accounting, noting that documents contained a red “prepared by the client” notation and that figures were copied and pasted from what he was provided by the Trump Organizations in some documents. He also testified regarding a letter from the Trump Organization stating that it had not knowingly withheld any relevant financial data.

END

SAN FRANCISCO

Now pirates pillage boats harboured in SF Bay

(zerohedge)

Aarg! Homeless Pirates Pillage Leisure Boats In San Francisco Bay

TUESDAY, OCT 03, 2023 – 11:25 PM

There’s a new, maritime dimension to the scourge of rampant crime in northern California cities, as homeless creeps are now taking to the water and preying on houseboats and yachts docked on San Francisco Bay, reports Fox News. 

“Multiple vessels have been stolen and ransacked. Victims have had to resort to personally confronting the criminals to recover their property without the benefit of police support,” said former harbor master Brock de Lappe at a recent municipal meeting. “Is this appropriate activity for a 79-year-old senior?”

The 3,000-slip Oakland-Alameda Estuary has been particularly hard-hit, as thieves use small boats to burglarize or steal private boats on the waterway. The pirates use stolen boats or old, abandoned dinghies to carry out their raids. 

A boating school for children has seen four of its eight safety boats stolen and destroyed. The boats cost the school between $25,000 and $35,000 apiece. “We cannot run our program without these boats,” wrote Kame Richards, owner of the nonprofit Alameda Community Sailing Center, in a letter to his municipal commission.

“The response we received from APD (Alameda Police Department) was that they could do nothing, and a warning not to approach the perpetrators if we located our boats,” added Richards. Sounds about par for the course in a state where the Senate has advanced a bill that would criminalize retail-store policies requiring employees to attempt to thwart thieves. 

“We had all hands on deck to retrieve this stuff, and it took 35 hours to get a police report number from the Alameda Police Department,” said Richards during a municipal meeting. The school is on the verge of calling it quits.

Another woman scared a troubling tale, telling Fox that she recently heard faint cries of “help me, please, please, anybody help me” coming from the inky darkness of the estuary. She dared to venture out with her kayak and a headlamp, and found a sailboat with a “panicked and terrified young man” aboard. He said pirates cut his sailboat line and set him adrift after a confrontation. 

“If there had been any wind at the time I wouldn’t have been able to go out there and rescue this young man who had no motor and no ability to sail that boat,” said his rescuer, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisals. 

Things have deteriorated to the point that a group that has regularly volunteered to clean up the waterway for the past six years cancelled this year’s event “because of safety concerns” arising from a particularly concerning homeless encampment. “Unfortunately, I don’t feel comfortable bringing children to the site until those are addressed by the city of Oakland,” said the group’s leader, Mary Spicer. 

Alameda island has received high marks for suburban livability, but that’s in jeopardy as it’s increasingly feeling the ill effects of being across a narrow channel from Oakland and its skyrocketing homeless population. The island city has no maritime police equipment, and has seen its police force shrink by 30% in recent years. 

END

Biden’s “Secret Money Machine”: New Book Delves Into Hunter’s China-Linked Partnership With University Of Delaware

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 01:25 PM

While the general public is well aware of allegations against the Biden family involving international influence-peddling schemes, bribes from Ukrainian oligarchs, and attempts to write off prostitutes on tax returns, major facets of the first family’s sphere of wealth and influence have gone largely unreported.

According to a wide-ranging new book by Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow, who collaborated with researchers from investigative journalist Peter Schweizer’s multiple books (perhaps most notably, “Clinton Cash“), the Biden family has a second, virtually unknown institute. And much like the widely-reported Penn-Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania, the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware – established on the same day as UPenn’s, resulted in a flood of Chinese money into said institutions.

“The key players at the University of Delaware’s Biden Institute were either Biden family members, people with deep ties to China, or both,” writes Marlow.

Modeled after the Clinton Global Initiative, the University of Delaware Biden Institute was referred to as Hunter’s “baby” by his aunt and former Joe Biden campaign manager, Valerie Owens (who now chairs the Biden Institute).

On December 11, 2018, the University of Delaware announced that it was naming its public policy school after Vice President Biden. Emails show that this move was orchestrated by members of UD’s Biden Institute. It was on the day of the announcement that Hunter Biden received a text message from his aunt and former Joe Biden campaign manager, Valerie Owens (who chairs the Biden Institute), crediting him for the deepening partnership with between the Biden family and the university: “Bravo Hunter—UD was your baby and you made sure I was part of it.”

The University of Delaware Biden Institute was Hunter’s “baby.” And this was the type of baby the family most certainly was not going to ignore. -Breitbart

What’s more, the UD Biden Institute became home to at least 12 future Biden administration appointees, including soon-to-be senior Biden advisor Mike Donilon and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, while UD President Dennis Assanis would be named to Biden’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

But perhaps most intriguing is that soon after forging its partnership with the Bidens, the University of Delaware (UD) disclosed receiving funds from China.

Assanis notably “has deep and long-standing ties to China,” according to Marlow, who reports that in addition to serving as the founding director of the US-China Clean Energy Research Center and Clean Vehicle Consortium (CERC-CVC) since 2003, Assanis has served as both a guest professor and an advisory professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) – which has a partnership with the Chinese military, and which has been identified as the source of cyberattacks on American companies.

And then the Chinese funds start flowing…

As Marlow reports;

The University of Delaware had never disclosed receiving funds from China until April 2018, when it accepted over $3.2 million for a contract with an unnamed Chinese entity. This came two months after the Penn Biden Center opened its DC office. Then, in December 2018, UD received $1.9 million from an unnamed Chinese entity. In 2019, UD received another $625,000 from China. In 2020, UD initiated three contracts with the Chinese entities and received over $1 million in funds. In sum, UD has received over $6.7 million from unnamed Chinese sources, including a substantial amount from the Chinese government.

All these funds started flowing to UD after the Biden Institute was announced and increased immediately after the launch of the Penn Biden Center.

In addition to the obvious pay-for-play implications, the influx of Chinese money is even more alarming in light of UD’s thirty-seven international partnerships with Chinese universities – including several which are involved in the development of Chinese military technology.

Concern over UD’s relationship with Chinese entities is such a concern that on Feb. 8, 2022, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) wrote Assanis to ask him to terminate the institution’s academic and research partnership with Xiamen University, an active component of the CCP military-industrial complex, and which allegedly conspired with Huawei to perform corporate espionage against a US semiconductor start-up. According to the report, UD has worked with at least four other universities linked to CCP defense laboratories.

The Clinton model…

For those who don’t know, the Bidens are prolific plagiarists. Their institutes at the University of Delaware / UPenn appear to be no exception.

In April 2016, Hunter emailed (and met with) talent agent Craig Gering of the Creative Artists Agency about then-VP Joe Biden’s future after he leaves office. According to “confidential notes” taken by Gering, the two discussed the possibility of Hunter serving in the Penn Biden Center’s DC office – which Gering described as having a “Focus on foreign policy. In addition to the institute at U of Penn, the school has an existing office in DC that will be expanded to house a DC office for VP Biden (and Mike, Hunter and Steve?). Operates like The Clinton Global Initiative without the money raise.”

“Yes,” Hunter replied. “in theory that’s the way I would like to see it shake out— BUT please keep this very confidential between us because nothing has been set in stone and there’s still a lot of sensitivity around all of this both internally and externally. He hasn’t made any decisions and this could all be changed overnight.”

And while there may not have been a ‘money raise’ like CGI, it’s now been established that both universities saw an influx of Chinese money following the establishment of the Biden entities.

As Marlow notes;

CGI claims it convenes “established and emerging global leaders to create and implement solutions to the world’s most pressing challenges,” according to its website, but functionally, it was an easy way for the Clintons to reap donor funds to leverage relationships with celebrities and major corporations to boost their profiles all the while promoting their own cultural and political agenda items. Donations to CGI dried up when it came under media scrutiny from Schweizer and others for soliciting millions of dollars from foreign governments and businesses—the same governments and businesses that received favorable treatment from the Obama administration during Hillary’s tenure as secretary of state. -Breitbart

Most recently, CGI rebooted in 2022 (after shutting down in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost the election and donor funds dried up), and has now set its sights on Ukraine.

The big question then becomes – what did Gering mean by “Wealth Creation” in his email to Hunter, listed after his summaries of the various Biden family matters the two discussed? Was it in relation to the UD/UPenn centers? Was it Hunter’s ‘art’ career that’s been the focus of speculation over pay-for-play?

Whatever it was, the Biden family launched several entities as the Clinton charities began to fold up shop, one of which Hunter’s CAA pal described as operating “like the Clinton Global Initiative.”

*  *  *

Check out Marlow’s new book, Breaking Biden: Exposing the Hidden Forces and Secret Money Machine Behind Joe Biden, His Family, and His Administration.

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report October 4, 2023 Issue 7089Independent View of the News
Yen Surges from Weakest Level (150.16/$ to 147.23/$) in a Year amid Intervention TalkJapanese officials have been warning on currency fluctuationsThe country intervened a year ago to support the currencyThe yen jumped from the weakest level since October 2022, amid speculation that Japanese officials were acting to slow the currency’s slide… https://t.co/SnnOhPRpBu
 
US Job Openings Top All Forecasts as White-Collar Positions Jump – BBG
Vacancies increased to 9.61 million (8.815m expected), led by business services (> 500k)
Quits rate held at 2.3% in August, matching lowest since 2020
(July revised to 8.92m Job Openings from 8.827m)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-openings-top-forecasts-144709434.html
 
Bonds, ESZs and stocks tumbled after the August JOLTS Job Opening Report was released at 10 ET.  Eventually, the US 10-year yield hit 4.81%; the 30-year hit 4.95%.
 
USZs traded mostly higher but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower at 5:30 ET.  After falling to 111 14/32, -30/32, at 8:07 ET, USZs rallied to 112 4/32 at 9:41 ET.  At 11:58 ET, USZs were 110 21/32, -1 23/32.
 
ESZs traded modestly negative but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they staged a modest rally near 4 ET.  ESZs quickly returned to range trading until they broke down near 7 ET.  The buying for the pump began.  ESZs rallied from 4292.50 near 9 ET to 4315.50 at 9:52 ET.  ESZs and stocks then tumbled after the JOLTS Report release.  ESZs hit a bottom of 4257.00 at 11:37 ET.
 
A Noon Balloon took ESZs to 4277.50 at 13:01 ET.  ESZs and USZs then fell to new lows: 110 16/32 (-1 28/32), ESZs 4252.25 at 14:08 ET.  ESZs eased to a low of 4251.25 at 14:16 ET.  USZs and ESZs then had modest rebounds that ended at 14:47 ET.  Both rolled over and both declines stalled when USZs and ESZs got near their lows.  At 15:40 ET, the late rally attempt commenced.  ESZs hit 4268.50 at the close.
 
The British pound just had its worst month for a year — and strategists expect a further fall… Given expectations of a sharp reduction in peak interest rates and a weak economic outlook… https://t.co/rCtfBAmFqv
 
Fed has lifted interest rates high enough to tame inflation, Bostic suggests https://t.co/rYKLBRguRE
 
Atlanta Fed President Bostic is one of the most liberal Fed officials.  Cleveland Fed President Mester said she supports another rate hike at the November FOMC Meeting.
 
@MichaelMOTTCM: 4200 on the #sp500 is a big level, from a support zone standpoint, but also the 200-day moving, but more importantly, below 4,200, the “bull market” is over.
https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1709247268618981791
 
Positive aspects of previous session.
Oil and gasoline declined sharply
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds got hammered, again; stocks sank in concert
Some entities must be in serious trouble due to staggering debt losses
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will the entities with severe financial damage be exposed?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4242.35
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4281.15; 4216.45
 
@Convertbond: With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered… Commercial real estate market made new lows today… Bank of America & Citi 45% off highs… https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1709148510853922952
 
@charliebilello: The average office vacancy in the US rose to 19.2% in the 3rd quarter, just below the historical peak of 19.3% in 1991 (Moody’s Analytics).
  
Ann Coulter: Please stop doing this @mattgaetz. You make great points, but your fellow Republicans aren’t all in safe seats like yours. YOUR NO. 1 JOB: WIN MAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE & SENATE. Then get a better speaker. 
 
ABC’s @bensiegel: In the Dem meeting, Rep. Dan Goldman, D-NY, told colleagues he received a call from former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney after a recent TV hit.  Cheney said they should “get rid of” McCarthy, per two sources who heard Goldman describe the call.
   @MZHemingway: Cheney’s obsessive hatred of McCarthy is well known. But also worth noting that she’s advising Democrats. Functionally a Democrat activist.
 
Fox’s @ChadPergram: This is the first time the House has debated/voted on a motion to vacate the chair since 1910.
 
In a historic first, McCarthy was ousted as Speaker by a vote of 216 (8 GOP) to 210.  McCarthy had the shorted Speaker term (269 days) since Michael Kerr in 1876 (278 days, death by consumption).  Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is now the acting Speaker of the House.  McCarthy announced that he would NOT run again or Speaker.  House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is favored to become Speaker.  The sorest losers: Special Interest GOP donors, K-Street lobbyists, GOP consultants, and the Ex-GOPe on Fox News.
 
@CollinRugg: Matt Gaetz calls Kevin McCarthy a “feature of the swamp” after reporter tells Gaetz that people think he is a narcissist.  “It’s the benefit of this country that we have a better Speaker of the House than Kevin McCarthy.” “Kevin McCarthy couldn’t keep his word. He made an agreement in January regarding the way Washington would work, and he violated that agreement. We are $33 trillion in debt. We are facing $2.2 trillion annual deficits.”
    “We face a de-dollarization globally that will crush Americans working class Americans. Kevin McCarthy is a feature of the swamp. He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favors.” (He was the GOP’s Pelosi.)
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1709326769495617747
 
Politico’s @nicholaswu12: As one of his first acts as the acting speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry ordered former Speaker Nancy Pelosi to vacate her Capitol hideaway office by Wednesday.  “Please vacate the space tomorrow, the room will be re-keyed.”
 
In yet another instance of egregious hypocrisy, Trump slammed House Republicans for slamming other Republicans instead of Democrats.  We guess that in a senior momentum, DJT forgot about slamming DeSantis and beaucoup other Republicans.
 
@jordanboydtx: “One source familiar with the situation told The Federalist that even McConnell quietly acknowledged to his colleagues that any spending bill that included Ukraine funding was not a winning issue for the party.”
 
@zerohedge: The US added… $275 billion in debt in, uh, ONE DAY! Total US debt is now $33.442 trillion, hit $33 trillion just 2 weeks ago, and on pace to rise by $1 trillion in 1 month. WTF is going on? (It was last day of Q3 spending.)  https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1709321746673786896
 
Perhaps it’s time for us to reread “When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar German”.
 
Today – Once again, Mr. Bond rudely usurped equity bulls.  Equity bulls wanted a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.  But the larger than expected August JOLTS Job Openings incensed Mr. Bond.  Down Goes Bond!  Equities followed.  More importantly, equities have been reluctant to follow Mr. Bond.  On Tuesday, ESZs and stocks closely tracked with bonds.
 
The S&P 500 Index must stay above 4200; its 200-DMA is 4202.  Stocks and bonds are grossly oversold on a short-term basis; a robust rebound is overdue.  Plus, the usual suspects will try to defend a key technical threshold, The S&P 500 Index’s 200-DMA.  But, will McCarthy’s ouster thwart the probable rebound?  ESZs are +0.25 and USZs are +4/32, at 20:30 ET. 
 
Expected econ data: Sept ADP Employment Change 150k; Sept S&P Global US Services PMI 50.2, Composite PMI 50.1; Sept ISM Services Index 53.5; Aug Factory Orders 0.3% m/m, ex-Trans 0.2%; Aug Durable Goods Orders 0.2% m/m, ex-Trans 0.4%; Fed Gov. Bowman 10:25 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:30 ET and 15:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4441; 100-day MA: 4389; 150-day MA: 4276; 200-day MA: 4202
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,647; 100-day MA: 34,269; 150-day MA: 33,891; 200-day MA: 33,799
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4523.92 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4346.97 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4266.67 triggers a buy signal
 
@jacobkschneider: Why is Biden’s face bruised? https://t.co/L4jZbtApLm
 
Biden’s dog Commander is biting Secret Service agents because of their UNFRIENDLY expressions – and German Shepherd is ‘so friendly’ to West Wing staffers, White House sources claim https://t.co/Ebs361ztsw
 
The lies and gaslighting to protect The Big Guy are getting more insulting!
 
@JesseBWatters: We’ve finally figured out why Gold Bar Bob Menendez is being taken out. The President of Turkey wanted to buy F-16s from us, but Gold Bar Bob put a hold on the jets. Now that Bob’s out, Turkey’s going on a shopping spree and is no longer going to keep holding up Sweden’s application to NATO  https://t.co/MMHv5PB5H3
 
Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) carjacked at gunpoint (3 assailants) in DC https://t.co/RVViTgMyeK
 
Politico’s @nicholaswu12: USCP (Capitol Police) on the Cuellar carjacking: “A witness told investigators three males in knit caps and ski masks were involved. The witness reported that the suspects were 5’10” black males who may have been around the age of 16 due to their build.”
 
@LucasFoxNews: In DC, the average murder suspect has 11 prior arrests: police.  200 murders in nation’s capital before October for first time in a quarter-century. Over 70% of cases remain unsolved.
    DC’s mayor says nation’s capital is up to 400 cops short and “we have policies that make it difficult to recruit new officers.”
 
@ClayTravis: Violent crime is up 38% this year over last year in DC. The only people getting prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law in DC are January 6th defendants and Donald Trump.
 
Senator (R, UT) @BasedMikeLee: My friend, @RepCuellar (D. TX), became the victim of a crime tonight in what’s considered a nice part of D.C. D.C. is dangerous. Something’s gone terribly wrong here—for far too long.  Congress has the sole power to make D.C.’s laws, and must intervene.
 
Vice chair of Minnesota Democrat Party who advocated for dismantling police gets violently beaten and carjacked – She now calls for law and order and wants to take her city back.
https://thepostmillennial.com/vice-chair-of-minnesota-democrat-party-who-advocated-for-dismantling-police-gets-violently-beaten-and-carjacked
 
Fatal NYC Stabbing Of Social-Justice Activist Caught on CCTV
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/graphic-fatal-nyc-stabbing-left-wing-activist-caught-cctv
 
@RNCResearch: NBC: “Resources are overwhelmed across public hospitals in New York City,” where 25% of all patients are now illegal immigrants https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1709249019631792343
 
@ggreenwald: Absolutely amazing how quickly Democratic governors and mayors went from “The Statue of Liberty weeps at those who want to limit immigration — this is not who we are” to “Biden must do more to stop immigrants immediately!” as soon as it was their towns and state affected.
 
There are billions of ‘poor’ people on Earth.  They can obtain free housing, medical care, schooling, food, and other aid by walking into the US.  Why is anyone surprised at the tsunami of illegals into the US?
@bhweingarten: BIG BREAKING: CISA, the “nerve center” of the fed-led censorship regime, has now been prohibited from engaging in speech policing in a bombshell new opinion from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. This corrects a major deficiency in its original ruling.
https://twitter.com/bhweingarten/status/1709282794583511409
 
@SteveGuest: The Washington Post in 2021: “Biden’s pick for Iran envoy is a pro. Deal with it.”
REALITY CHECK: “The Biden administration’s now-suspended Iran envoy Robert Malley helped to fund, support, and direct an Iranian intelligence operation designed to influence the United States…” https://t.co/u79RgVS04v
 
@TuckerCarlson: Ep. 27  Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains.
    Carlson: It’s hard for most Americans to comprehend the total dishonesty of American liberalism. Virtually nothing the liberal says is true.  And the lies are not ordinary lies.  The lies are so brazen, so aggressive and unending, that it’s difficult for a normal person to understand what’s happening. 30 years ago, for example, liberals began to lecture us, softly at first, and then in an increasingly high volume, about tolerance. How could you have known then that they planned, in fact, to usher in the most intolerant age in American history?…
    Liberals are now telling us they plan to protect American democracy; and that’s the clearest possible sign that they intend to end it… Trump stands accused of inflating the value of collateral used to secure loans, loans that he has already paid back with interest. In other words, there is no injured party in this case. The biggest banks in the world assessed the risk, and they made a profit, as they almost always do. Not a single person was defrauded for this non crime…
    Hanson: “We’re in the middle of a cultural, economic, political revolution… we think that we’re still playing within the same sidelines or parameters, and we’re not. Everything’s under negotiation…
   “You need leaders who will tell people we are in a Jacobin takeover of this country and the old get along at any cost does not work… I hope everybody can keep their head because I think the next 12 to 18 months are going to be the most explosive in our history since the Great Depression…”
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1708986264588791862
 
@elonmusk: Believe what you see, not what you’re told.
    I almost never read legacy news anymore. What’s the point of reading 1000 words about something that was already posted on 𝕏 several days ago?
 
@washingtonpost: A chief information officer at the Pentagon is charged with training fighting dogs for over 20 years. The ring regularly trained dogs for fights, ran thousands of dollars in bets, and executed dogs that didn’t die during matches, court records state. https://t.co/b8y8oTNxvq

GREG HUNTER 

see you on THURSDAY

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