OCT 12/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $3.00 TO $1870.20//SILVER WAS DOWN 19 CENTS TO $21.80//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $17.90 WHILE PALLADIUM ACCERATES ITS DOWNSPIN FALLING ANOTHER $14.95 TO $1142.40//TWO MUST COMMENTARIES TO READ TODAY: JOHN RUBINO ON THE CENTRAL BANK GOLD PURCHASES AND CHRIS POWELL ON THE HORRIFIC EVENTS INSIDE ISRAEL AND GAZA//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS//MICHAEL EVERY ANOTHER IMPORTANT COMMENTARY//EVENTS IN ISRAEL UPDATES//USA DATA: CPI RED HOT AND THAT SENDS USA STOCKS LOWER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
190 H BMO CAPITAL 18 323 C HSBC 22 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 43 661 C JP MORGAN 1 690 C ABN AMRO 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
TOTAL: 45 45 MONTH TO DATE: 9,656
JPMorgan stopped 1/45 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 45 NOTICES FOR 4500 OZ or .1399 TONNES
total notices so far: 9656 contracts for 965,600 oz (30.034 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 472 for 2,360,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .825 MILLION SILVER OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.769 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY SMALL SIZED 262CONTRACTS TO 127,233 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.17 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 1787 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1787 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.17). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 767 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 230 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 2.0 MILLION OZ //NEW STANDING 2.465 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 2.0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR = 4.455 MILLION OZ/////STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1787CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 275 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 days, total 11,879 contracts: OR 59.395 MILLION OZ (1485 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 59.395 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 59.395 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 262 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.17 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 250 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:NEW TOTAL STANDING 2.465 MILLION OZ + A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 4.465 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 492 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1787CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (1787) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1939 CONTRACTS TO 438,438 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 629 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1939 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $11.20 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING 31.117 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 3272 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$11.20 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4860 OI CONTRACTS (17.073 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 2921CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 439,067
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4860 CONTRACTS WITH 2568 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A VERY STRONG SIZED 2921 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4860CONTRACTS OR 15.11 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A VERY STRONG 3272 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2921 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1939) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4860 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 31.117 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: VERY STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3272 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 34,705 CONTRACTS OR 3,470,500 OZ OR 107.95 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4540 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 107.95 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 107.95/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.04% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 107.95 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 262 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,233 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 230 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 230and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 230 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 262 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 230 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 492 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.46 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.95 PTS OR .94% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.11 PTS OR 1.93% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 558.15 PTS OR 1.75% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.708 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2996 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2961 /Oil DOWN TO 84.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 86.73 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1939CONTRACTS TO 438,438 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.20 ON WEDNESDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2921 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2921 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2921 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4860 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2921LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1939 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.20//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A VERY STRONG 3272 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (31.069) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 31.069 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $11.20) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4860TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SMALL T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 15.11 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTALS STANDING:31.117 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $11.20. FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS.
WE HAD REMOVED 328 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4860 CONTRACTS OR 486,000 OZ OR 15.11 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9656 notices 965,600 OZ 30.034 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 71,664.579 oz
total withdrawals 71,664.579 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 393 contracts having LOST 190 contracts. We had 205 contracts filed on Wednesday, so we gained another strong 15 contracts or an additional 1500 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. Somebody, for the 8th day in a row, was in urgent need of a huge supply of physical gold over here. Also please note the large EFP issuances for the comex gold contracts. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
NOV LOST 66 CONTRACTS to stand at 1465
December LOST 1886 contracts up to 362,513 contracts.
We had 45 contracts filed for today representing 4500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 45 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9656 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (393 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 45 x 100 oz per contract equals 10,004,900 OZ OR 31.117 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (9656) x 100 oz + (393) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (45) x 100 oz) which equals 10,004.900oz standing OR 31.117 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 31.117 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,327,532.682 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,067,513.609 (313,14 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,260,019.073 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,044,290 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 250.211 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 11
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
54,901.409oz Brinks Delaware CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
8,083.256 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
2 CONTRACT(S) (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
21 contracts (105,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
472 Contracts (2,360,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware 8083.256
total customer deposit 8083.256 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236 million oz/272.905 million or 49.89%
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Brinks 9,720.780 oz
ii)out of Delaware 24,965.089 oz
iii) Out of CNT 20,214.940 oz
total: 54,901.409 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.678 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.905 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 23 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 7 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED
ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 35 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 444
DEC. LOST 1329 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 103,317 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 51,126 //weak
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 50,459// weak
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 472 x 5,000 oz = 2,360,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (23) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 472 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (23) – number of notices served upon today (2 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.465 million oz + 2.0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk prior//new totals: 4.465 million oz.
There are 37.638 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 862.37 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
Central banks have morphed recently from net sellers of gold to increasingly aggressive net buyers. And the buying is even more aggressive than it seems. Here’s the story in three charts:
When the global financial system nearly imploded in 2008, central banks stopped selling gold and started buying. To put this buying into context, the world’s mines produce about 3,000 tonnes of gold per year. So 800 tonnes of annual central bank buying, which happened five years out of the past ten, is a significant number.
In 2022 this buying spiked to 1,000 tonnes, worth about $70 billion. And the first half of 2023 was the highest first half on record.
But within that strong first half were some months when central bank selling was disturbingly high.
Is this a sign that central banks are starting to shift back into net-seller mode? Or was it a one-off event for unrelated reasons? Well, it turns out that not only was it a one-off event, it was actually a positive one-off event.
Turkey, which in recent years has been a major gold buyer, was forced to sell off some of its gold reserves because its citizens wanted to buy it:
(Kitco News) – Turkey’s central bank is offloading its gold reserves to help meet high domestic demand after curbing precious metals imports in February, Bloomberg reported.
Turkey has seen a surge in gold demand in the past year as citizens embraced the precious metal as a hedge against inflation, which ran at a pace of over 85% at one point last year, and local currency devaluation.
The central bank’s data showed that gold reserves fell 9% in the last seven weeks.
Turkey also sold 15 tonnes of gold in March, the World Gold Council reported. This marked the first monthly net sale since November 2021 and lowered the country’s reserves to 572 tonnes.
Turkey’s official gold reserves rose by 148 tonnes to 542 tonnes last year, marking the highest level on record for Turkey, according to the World Gold Council data.
On top of that, Turkey’s gold imports from Switzerland hit the highest level on record in January, totaling 58.3 tonnes worth $3.6 billion.
The cut was due to growing gold imports directly contributing to the Turkish current account deficit, which remained significantly negative in February, coming in at $8.78 billion. In January, Turkey saw a record deficit of $10 billion.
To sum up, Turkey’s citizens are doing what people have done since the beginning of recorded history: They’re buying gold in response to a weakening currency. So what looks like big selling by the Turkish central bank is actually a transfer within the country from the bank to its citizens.
Now go back to the above monthly chart and look at central bank purchases for July and August. Once Turkey stopped selling (and started buying again), central banks went back to being aggressive gold accumulators. 2023 is looking like another big year, with August’s pace annualizing to about 900 tonnes. This gives the metal a nice tailwind to go with all the other reasons to be swapping fiat currencies for precious metals.
Let’s end with a list of the top ten central bank gold buyers from 1999 to 2021. Note that members of the BRICS+ coalition (now including Saudia Arabia) feature prominently. Presumably, most of these countries are selling US Treasury bonds to finance their gold purchases. So de-dollarization is a big and growing part of the gold story.
end
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
end
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2996
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2961
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.95 PTS OR .94%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 228.37 PTS OR 1.29%
2. Nikkei closed UP 558.15 PTS OR 1.75 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.48 EURO FALLS TO 1.0617 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.751 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.16/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.7285***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.665*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.816…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.170
3j Gold at $1883.45 silver at: 22.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 3 AND 13 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.06//
3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.16// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.751% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9003 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9558 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.558 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.716 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.986 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.75…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.4030
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Rise For 5th Straight Session Ahead Of Key CPI Print
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 08:10 AM
US equity futures climbed rose for a fifth consecutive session – the longest winning streak since August – ahead of the September CPI report that’s expected to show further slowing in US inflation, which should cement the market’s conviction that the Fed’s hiking cycle is over. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% and above Wednesday’s highs, following almost 1% gain for Estoxx 50, Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%. Treasuries were flat trading at 4.55%, while the dollar is slightly weaker ahead of key US consumer prices data. WTI crude futures are higher by 0.8%, paring Wednesday’s drop as commodities catch a bid with all 3 segments higher.
The latest FOMC minutes point to a paused Fed (according to JPM, confirmation is expected to come from Powell coming on Oct 19) with the debate now on how long to maintain at this level before cutting; Fedspeak puts R-star in the 2.5% – 3% range. China invites US SecDef to its Defense Forum; biggest olive branch of the year? Asian stocks gained after China’s state fund looks to increase its stake in the country’s biggest banks; will look to do more over next six months.
In premarket trading, Ford slipped in pre-market trading after union members went on strike at its largest plant, a highly profitable pickup factory in Kentucky. First Solar advanced after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight. Birkenstock gained 0.7% after dropping from its initial public offering on Wednesday. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Beyond Meat fell 5.5% after Mizuho Securities cut the recommendation to underperform from neutral, pointing to macroeconomic pressures for consumption and a “lack of disruptive innovation” in the area.
Carvana (CVNA) drops 2% after long-term bull BNP Paribas Exane cut its rating on the online platform for buying used cars to neutral from outperform.
E2open (ETWO) drops 4.1% after being downgraded to neutral from buy at Redburn Atlantic, which said it “underestimated the hurdles” faced by the software company transitions from M&A-driven to organic growth.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) shares are up 3.6% after Barclays upgraded the company to overweight from equal-weight.
PepGen (PEPG) jumps 13% after the company said the FDA has lifted a full clinical hold and cleared its application, allowing PegGen to initiate an early-stage study of its treatment for patients with myotonic dystrophy, a genetic disorder.
Target Corp. (TGT) climbs 2.1% following an upgrade to buy from neutral at BofA, which sees an improved risk profile for the retailer based on recent pullback in the stock.
Tempest Therapeutics (TPST) is slumping a day after the stock closed up nearly 4,000%. Shares of the drug developer are down 38% ahead of the open.
The market’s attention turns next to Thursday’s US consumer price data (full preview here) which economists are forecasting to show a further easing in inflation. CPI is forecast to have slowed to an annual rate of 3.6% in September from 3.7% the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Data published Wednesday showed prices paid to producers rose by more than forecast in September, bolstered by higher energy costs.
In its preview of the CPI print, Goldman writes that “Stocks have squeezed 4 trading sessions and counting since the guts of the NFP data last Friday were deemed goldilocks .. The tape remains resilient in the midst of the tragic geopolitical developments .. I think this rally continues today if CPI is 30bps (or softer).”
Here is Goldman’s market reaction matrix:
Meanwhile Fed officials are taking a more patient approach now that rates are at or near their peak, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Wednesday. Her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said the central bank doesn’t need to keep tightening unless inflation’s descent starts to stall.
“The less hawkish turn that we’ve seen from the Fed is in part to try and reduce the volatility that we’ve seen in rates markets and to try and bring expectations down to a more reasonable level,” Mehvish Ayub, senior investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said on Bloomberg Television.
European stocks are on track to rise for a third consecutive session The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7% to a three-week high. Energy shares led gains as oil rebounded after OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their close cooperation to support the crude market. Mining and media stocks also outperformed while banks lagged, with Barclays Plc falling as much as 3.8% after Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan said stagnant deal activity, easing volatility and peaking interest rates are set to weigh on the sector’s earnings. Among individual movers, Publicis Groupe climbed as much as 5.1% to the highest level since April after the advertising agency upgraded its full-year organic growth target on the back of stronger-than-expected 3Q sales growth. Growth in the Epsilon unit — Publicis’s data management business — and a smaller tech industry exposure than peers helped the company outrun the broader slowdown in ad spending, analysts say. EasyJet Plc fell after the airline said it will order an additional 157 Airbus SE A320neo jets, with an option to add 100 more. Here are the most notable European movers:
Stabilus shares rise as much as 9.2% after agreeing to acquire Destaco from Dover for $680 million. The deal is seen improving profitability for the maker of gas springs and motion-control products, according to the analysts.
Suedzucker shares gain as much as 6.4%, the most since July, after the market leader in European sugar reported forecast-beating results, which Warburg attributes to strong profitability in the sugar segment.
Outokumpu shares gain as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after Bloomberg reported the Finnish steelmaker will supply some of the stainless steel panels for the exterior of Tesla’s new Cybertruck pickup truck. The Helsinki-based company is Europe’s largest stainless-steel manufacturer.
Restaurant Group shares rise as much as 38% and trade slightly above the level of a recommended cash offer from private equity group Apollo that values the owner of Wagamama at £506 million ($623 million). At least two analysts see the offer price as too low.
Ericsson shares fluctuate, rising as much as 2.2% as the telecom equipment maker booked a charge for 50% of the goodwill and other intangible assets attributed to Vonage, which the Swedish company acquired in 2022. Analysts say the writedown is largely expected and could be a clearing event, although it may reinforce investors’ views that the deal was a poor use of capital.
Helvetia shares drop as much as 4.7%, and is weakest stock on Thursday in the Stoxx 600 insurance index, after Berenberg cuts to sell and says underwriting margins are deteriorating with new accounting changes “covering the cracks.”
Darktrace shares fall as much as 7.4% after the British AI company issued a trading update for 1Q24. Analysts drew attention to softer-than-expected annual recurring revenue figures, though also noted Darktrace’s positive growth versus other UK companies.
Oxford Instruments shares fall as much as 7.1%, the most since June 2022, after the UK laboratory technology firm forecast full-year performance toward the lower end of expectations.
EasyJet shares drop as much as 4.8% after the low-cost airline in its trading update posted what Morgan Stanley calls “slightly soft” revenue per seat in the fourth-quarter, with Citi highlighting a miss in pricing. The carrier also placed its biggest-ever aircraft order.
Dowlais shares fall as much as 2.8% after JPMorgan downgraded its rating to neutral from overweight. The broker says it’s turning cautious on growth drivers at the automotive technology company and is waiting for more clarity on business prospects in electric vehicles.
Bossard shares drop as much as 1.1% after the Swiss industrials company forecast full-year sales below the average analyst estimate. Analysts noted declining end-market demand for the maker of fastening devices and industrial adhesives, while currency headwinds also played a part.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were headed for a sixth straight day of gains, as a move by China’s sovereign wealth fund to buy bank shares lifted sentiment, while investors parsed the less hawkish commentary by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1% on Thursday, led by consumer discretionary and industrial shares. Equities in Japan and South Korea were among the best performers in the region.
Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped more than 2% after China’s state-owned Central Huijin Investment Ltd. increased its stake in the nation’s biggest banks for the first time since 2015, a sign that authorities may double down on efforts to support the struggling stock market.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was boosted on a break above the 32,000 level following softer-than-expected PPI data and comments from BoJ Board Member Noguchi who continued to toe the dovish line.
Australia’s ASX 200 was led higher by early outperformance in its top-weighted financial industry although the gains in the index were limited as energy and the defensive sectors lagged.
Key stock gauges in India were little changed after Tata Consultancy Services’ warning of weakening US tech spending led to a rout in IT stocks. The S&P BSE Sensex was steady at 66,408.39 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also ended almost flat, bucking the regional trend as most peers extended gains. A gauge tracking IT stocks in India fell 1.5%, the most in two weeks.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% having earlier touched its lowest in almost two weeks; it is set for the longest run of losses in over three years after more Federal Reserve officials suggested that US interest rates may have peaked. The Swiss franc and Swedish krona are the best performers among the G-10’s; the kiwi is the laggard. The pound dipped, snapping a six-day rising streak, after figures showed the UK economy registered a modest rebound in August as the dominant services sector offset another weak month for manufacturers and construction firms.
The dollar has corrected lower as dovish Fedspeak drives a rebound in Treasuries, “but its too early to conclude this is the start of a USD downtrend,” said Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, adding that the US CPI reading “could again change the narrative and push the USD back up”
In rates, treasuries were little changed, as investors await a reading of US CPI later in the day to better gauge the outlook for inflation and rates. Yields are unchnaged on the day in front-end and belly of curve and marginally cheaper at long-end. All are within about 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels with price action limited ahead of key inflation data. US 10-year yield little changed around 4.56% while bunds and gilts trail by 1bp and 1.5bp in the sector. Slight underperformance of long end moves 5s30s spread from daily low near 10bp to ~13bp, while 2s10s spread is minimally flatter on the day. Core European rates are slightly cheaper across the curve in early London session: gilts and bunds decline, with UK and German 10-year yields both gaining 2bps. Treasury auction cycle concludes with 30-year reopening at 1pm, follows 10-year auction Wednesday which tailed by 1.8bp. Fed Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lori Logan, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins are due to speak later in the day.
In commodities, oil prices rose, with WTI gaining 1% to trade near $84.30. Spot gold adds 0.4%. Bitcoin was lacklustre following a recent retreat to beneath the USD 27,000 level.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for September, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Logan, Bostic and Collins, the ECB’s Elderson, Villeroy, Holzmann, Knot, Vujcic, Vasle and Panetta, along with the BoE’s Pill. The ECB will also release the account of their September meeting.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,421.50
MXAP up 1.2% to 159.79
MXAPJ up 0.9% to 500.53
Nikkei up 1.7% to 32,494.66
Topix up 1.5% to 2,342.49
Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 18,238.21
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,107.90
Sensex little changed at 66,433.04
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,090.98
Kospi up 1.2% to 2,479.82
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 455.82
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.73%
Euro little changed at $1.0625
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $86.61/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,880.86
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.14% to 105.67
Top Overnight News
Shares advanced before a report that’s expected to show a slowing in US inflation, which will help shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps. A move by China’s sovereign wealth fund to buy shares of the country’s largest banks fueled further optimism.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Tel Aviv Thursday on a hastily arranged diplomatic trip. Israeli jets hit key targets in Gaza after the nation vowed to wipe out Hamas, which is designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union.
A monthly report on US consumer prices due Thursday is set to muddy the picture for Federal Reserve officials trying to decide whether to hike interest rates again, especially as escalating conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Bond investors are starting to back away from what’s been one of the few bright spots for them this year amid signs yields may have peaked after the epic rout in September.
The yen’s weakness is so entrenched that even ending the Bank of Japan’s negative-rates policy may fail to save it.
China has told its securities firms and their offshore units to stop conducting illicit cross-border business, including brokering shares and selling funds to domestic investors, in a bid to plug regulatory loopholes.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were firmer after the region took impetus from the intraday rebound on Wall St where dovish Fed rhetoric offset the hot PPI data, while stale FOMC Minutes provided no major fireworks. ASX 200 was led higher by early outperformance in its top-weighted financial industry although the gains in the index were limited as energy and the defensive sectors lagged. Nikkei 225 was boosted on a break above the 32,000 level following softer-than-expected PPI data and comments from BoJ Board Member Noguchi who continued to toe the dovish line. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned in which the Hong Kong benchmark gapped above the 18,000 level and spearheaded the advances in the region, while Chinese banks were buoyed after China’s sovereign wealth fund raised its stake in the largest banks for the first time since 2015.
Top Asian News
Chinese securities regulator banned brokerages and their offshore units from taking on new mainland clients for offshore trading and it set an end-October deadline for the removal of apps and websites soliciting mainland clients, according to Reuters sources.
China studies easing foreign stake limits in Chinese firms, via Bloomberg. In-fitting with reports seen in late September. Total overseas ownership in local firms is currently capped at 30%
Chinese GDP growth might slow in Q3 to above 4.0% Y/Y from 6.3% growth in Q2 but is expected to improve after Q3, according to Securities Daily.
BoJ Board Member Noguchi said the biggest focus is whether wage hike momentum will be maintained or not and the raising of the YCC band does not signify a tightening of monetary policy, while he added when inflation expectations are rising, some flexibility is needed to continue easy policy under YCC. Furthermore, Noguchi said there are signs upward price pressures are coming down and the BoJ’s near-term mission is to realise a situation where wage growth does not fall short of inflation as soon as possible through persistent monetary easing.
European bourses are trading with modest gains in the wake of the late gains on Wall Street yesterday and the upbeat APAC session overnight. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with Basic Resources and Energy top of the leaderboard, whilst Banks lag to the downside. US futures are trading on the front foot, continuing the strength seen in yesterday’s session, with the hotter-than-expected PPI print unable to cap sentiment in the run-up to today’s CPI.
Top European News
BoE’s Dhingra said they think only about 20%-25% of the impact of interest rate hikes has been fed through to the economy and suggested that when growth is as slow as it is now, the chances of a recession or not recession are going to be pretty equally balanced so they should be prepared for that and it is not going to be great times ahead. Furthermore, she added that if growth falls by much more than the BoE expects from here, a cut may happen sooner, according to the BBC.
BoE’s Pill said finely balanced issue if the BoE still has more to do. A lot of policy tightening is yet to come through. Inflation in the UK remains too high, according to Reuters. Pill said it is premature from policy perspective to be discussing unwinding policy; we may become overly sensitive to short-term fluctuations in data.
ECB’s Stournaras sees no value in bringing forward the end of PEPP and sees no reason to raise banks’ requirements. He added that Italy’s government must reassure the European Commission and investors, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Makhlouf said the ECB will have a better feel on rates after December. He added Italian bond spread will focus the ECB.
ECB’s Wunsch said monetary policy is at the right level. Inflation shock from increasing oil prices could lead to an additional rate hike. When asked about whether October will see a PEPP announcement, said PEPP should be discussed, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Villeroy said monetary patience is currently more important than activism; duration is more important than level, according to Reuters.
FX
Dollar is depressed ahead of US CPI data after brief bounces post-PPI and FOMC minutes – DXY edges closer to chart prop within tight 105.530-730 confines.
Franc remains firm on safe-haven grounds – USD/CHF probes 0.9000 and EUR/CHF nearer 0.9550 than 0.9600.
Euro retains 1.0600+ status vs Buck and is surrounded by hefty option expiry interest.
Yen is still drawn to 149.00 against Greenback as BoJ’s Noguchi sticks to dovish guidance.
Cable unstable above 1.2300 amidst mixed UK macro releases and BoE members highlighting the extent of hikes in the pipeline.
Fixed Income
Debt futures fade after another strong rally to fresh cycle peaks for Bunds and Gilts.
10-year German and UK benchmarks towards a base of 129.59-130.20 and 94.83-95.66 respective ranges.
T-note also consolidating pre-US CPI, IJC and latest Fed speak within narrow 108-09/00+ confines.
Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. Italy to sell EUR 5.25-6.5bln 3.85% 2026, 4.00% 2030, 4.45% 2043 BTP & EUR 1.5bln vs. Exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 4.00% 2035 BTP Green.
Commodities
Crude front-month futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite any fresh macro catalysts and as investors look ahead to US CPI.
Dutch TTF prices are once again on the grind higher after pulling back yesterday, with the complex still underpinned by Chevron’s Australian LNG situation alongside the suspected sabotage of the Baltic-connector gas pipeline in the run-up to winter heating season.
Spot gold continues grinding higher despite the recovery of the Dollar as geopolitical premium continues to be baked into the yellow metal.
IEA OMR: raises 2023 oil demand forecast to 2.3mln BPD (vs. prev. 2.2mln BPD), cuts 2024 to 880k BPD (vs. prev. 1mln BPD) amid weaker economic environment and efficiency improvements. The pullback in oil reflects demand destruction. Israel-Hamas conflict has not had a direct impact on oil flows; ready to act to keep the market well-supplied if needed. OPEC+ voluntary cuts will keep the market in deficit in Q4 but could shift to a surplus if extra cuts are unwound in January. Russian total oil exports rose 460k BPD in September.
Saudi Energy Minister said the oil market should not be left alone; we should be proactive given numerous challenges.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said the market is very sensitive but the balance; we quickly react to the situation in the oil market where there are many uncertainties; global economy is growing slower than expected. He added global oil demand will increase by 2.4mln BPD this year. He added that Russia lowered exports of oil and oil products, and Russian OPEC+ commitments include oil product exports.
Iraq oil ministry spokesperson said OPEC+ priorities include achieving stability and balance in global markets. Severity of impact from security events on supply/demand flows depends on how long such events last. OPEC+ does not deal with fast reactions to challenges that face the market. Iraq is committed to voluntary cuts, according to Reuters.
Grain storage facility and grain was damaged in Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics
Russia and India are in talks about a summit this year between President Putin and PM Modi, according to Ria.
Iran’s Foreign Minister is to travel to Lebanon amid the Israel-Palestine events, according to Tasnim citing the ambassador.
US Secretary of State Blinken has landed in Israel, according to Reuters witness.
US President Biden said the US is sending military assistance to Israel and they made it clear to the Iranians to “be careful”. Furthermore, President Biden held a call with UAE’s President and stressed his condemnation of Hamas, while the leaders discussed the importance of ensuring humanitarian assistance reaches those in need.
US believes that Iran knew about the Hamas attack plan but not the timing and scale of the attack, according to WSJ.
China Commerce Ministry on reports of the EU planning an anti-subsidy probe of Chinese steelmakers said EU’s action is against international trade offer, according to Reuters.
A Committee of Russia’s Parliament lower house has drafted legislation to revoke the treaty on the nuclear test ban, according to Ria.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 207,000
Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.66m
08:30: Sept. CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
Sept. CPI YoY, est. 3.6%, prior 3.7%
Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.3%
14:00: Sept. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$146b, prior -$429.8b
Central Bank Speakers
10:00: Fed’s Logan Delivers Welcoming Remarks
13:00: Fed’s Bostic Delivers Welcoming Remarks
16:00: Fed’s Collins Speaks at Banking Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’ll be spending most of today telling my wife “you really, really don’t look your age.. but how does it feel to be married to a younger man from a different half-century”. Yes, she turns 50 today. I have exactly 8 months before the same fate awaits me so I won’t be able to make too much fun of her. In terms of festivities, she’s off to a spa day today and then we’re out to dinner tonight as a family. Then tomorrow night we’ve booked a ridiculously expensive hotel in London for our first night away together from the kids since we’ve had them, with theatre and dinner thrown in. Then on Sunday she’s seeing Madonna live at the o2 arena as she starts her world tour (Madonna not my wife). I’ll be ducking out at that point and will be en route to New York for work. Next year we’re having a joint 100th party at home which will be the hottest ticket in town (I live in a very small town).
The hottest ticket in town today will be ring side seats to the latest US CPI report. Our economists are looking for headline CPI at +0.26%, which will slightly outpace core, which they see at +0.24%. This would put the YoY at 3.5% and 4.0%, respectively, down 0.2pp and 0.4pp from last month. See their preview here along with a link to register for their webinar afterwards.
Ahead of this important print, markets this week have responded more to central bank speak than the tragic events in the Middle East, but the two combined have provided the perfect conditions for bonds to rally. With oil softening again yesterday (WTI down -2.88%), it’s now only around one percent higher than before the weekend attacks on Israel.
10yr US bonds go into the big release some -31.5bps beneath their intraday peak last Friday immediately after the jobs report, with yesterday seeing a further -9.5bps move lower. We saw a sharp London morning rally on the back of Bloomberg headlines of missiles being fired from Lebanon towards Israel. Much of this rally then reversed, in part after a 10yr auction that saw softer demand from indirect bidders, but bonds rallied again later on after the release of the Fed September minutes. The big story was a significant flattening in the Treasury curve, with the 2yr yield up +1.3bps to 4.98%, whilst the 30yr yield came down -13.8bps to 4.69%, its largest daily decline since March at the height of the banking turmoil. Overall, there was lots of talk about steepeners being a crowded trade and helping to create the fairly sudden flattening of late. We have a 30yr auction today to test this recent long-end outperformance.
This out-performance got added support from Fed commentary. First, there were remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who said that that financial markets were “tightening up and they are going to do some of the work for us”. Then in the US afternoon we had the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting. These repeated some key messages from last month’s press conference, with all FOMC members agreeing that “policy should remain restrictive for some time” and that the Fed “can proceed carefully”. But there were also some dovish hints as “risks to the achievement of the committee’s goals had become more two-sided”. The minutes added focus to the details of today’s CPI print, noting that “significant progress in reducing inflation had yet to become apparent in the prices of core services excluding housing”.
The Fed commentary saw investors further discount the likelihood of a hike at the next meeting in November, with futures only giving it a 10% likelihood now, down from 14% the previous day and 31% last Friday after the strong payrolls. Those moves to price out further tightening came in spite of a strong US PPI inflation print for September yesterday. The monthly gain in headline PPI was at +0.5% (vs. +0.3% expected), whilst PPI excluding food and energy was up +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected). In turn, that pushed the year-on-year measure for headline PPI up to +2.2%, which is a clear recovery from its low of +0.2% back in June.
Even with the latest fall in long-term borrowing costs, yesterday brought fresh evidence that the recent sharp increase was still filtering through. That came from the Mortgage Bankers Association, whose latest data showed the 30yr fixed mortgage rate was up to 7.67% in the week ending October 6, which is the highest it has been since 2000 .
Over in Europe, there was also a significant flattening in the yield curve, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.7bps), OATs (-6.2bps) and BTPs (-6.2bps) all moving lower, even as the 2yr yields all rose. That came amidst several speakers from the ECB yesterday, including Dutch central bank governor Knot, who said that returning inflation to target in 2025 “would be an acceptable return for me”. Bundesbank President Nagel also said in a CNBC interview that “pausing could be an option” .
For equities, yesterday saw a moderate advance on both sides of the Atlantic, with gains for the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.15%). The S&P 500 had traded a few tenths lower in the middle part of the session but rallied in the last couple of hours, assisted by a renewed decline in yields. Tech stocks led the moves in the US, with the NASDAQ (+0.71%) and the FANG+ Index (+0.99%) seeing stronger advances, whilst energy stocks in the S&P 500 (-1.35%) underperformed amidst the decline in oil prices. Over in Europe there was a divergence by country, with Germany’s DAX (+0.24%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.36%) posting gains but France’s CAC 40 fell -0.44% as luxury giant LVMH fell -6.46% after reporting disappointing Q3 sales growth .
Turning back to oil prices, WTI crude was down -2.88% to $83.49/bl yesterday, and this morning it’s down a further -0.48% to $83.09/bbl. In addition to the fading of imminent concerns over supply risks from the Middle East, the reversal was helped by the latest monthly EIA report. This projects that US oil output will reach an all-time high of 13.16m barrels a day in Q4-23. Sticking to the topic, our commodities analyst Michael Hsueh updated his oil price projections in an oil market update yesterday.
Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen that broadly positive performance continue in markets, with gains for all the major equity indices. The Hang Seng (+1.89%) is leading the way, and was supported by the news that China’s sovereign wealth fund, had bought shares in some of the nation’s biggest banks. That said, the equity advances were spread across the region, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.66%0, the CSI 300 (+0.97%), the KOSPI (+0.94%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.82%). US and European equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.27% after 4 consecutive advances for the index already .
In US political news, late yesterday we heard that Rep. Steve Scalise was selected as the nominee for Speaker by a ballot of Republicans in the House of Representatives, defeating Trump-backed Rep. Jim Jordan. Scalise still faces a challenge to be elected Speaker as he can afford to lose support of at most four House Republicans to get the 217 votes needed. If Scalise is confirmed as Speaker, investors will be keen to see whether he can facilitate a spending deal ahead of the next government shutdown deadline on November 17th. In other news out of the US overnight, the UAW auto union’s strike expanded to Ford’s largest pickup plant in Kentucky. This arguably marks the largest escalation since the UAW strikes began in mid-September.
There wasn’t much other data yesterday, but we did get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for August. That showed expectations at the 1yr horizon up a tenth to 3.5%, and they were also up a tenth at the 3yr horizon to 2.5%. Overnight, however, Japan’s PPI inflation for September fell more than expected to +2.0% year-on-year (vs. +2.4% expected), which is its slowest pace in two-and-a-half years .
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for September, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Logan, Bostic and Collins, the ECB’s Elderson, Villeroy, Holzmann, Knot, Vujcic, Vasle and Panetta, along with the BoE’s Pill. The ECB will also release the account of their September meeting.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer, DXY lower & Fixed fades gains ahead of US CPI & IJC – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 06:40 AM
European bourses are trading with modest gains in the wake of the late gains on Wall Street yesterday and the upbeat APAC session overnight.
Dollar is depressed ahead of US CPI data after brief bounces post-PPI and FOMC minutes. Euro retains 1.0600+ status vs Buck. Yen is still drawn to 149.00 against Greenback.
Debt futures fade after another strong rally to fresh cycle peaks for Bunds and Gilts.
Chinese GDP growth might slow in Q3 to above 4.0% Y/Y from 6.3% growth in Q2 but is expected to improve after Q3, according to Securities Daily.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Core CPI, Earnings, IJC & Cleveland Fed CPI, ECB & Banxico Minutes, Speeches from ECB’s Panetta, Fed’s Bostic, Logan & Collins, Supply from US, Earnings from Walgreens
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are trading with modest gains in the wake of the late gains on Wall Street yesterday and the upbeat APAC session overnight.
Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with Basic Resources and Energy top of the leaderboard, whilst Banks lag to the downside.
US futures are trading on the front foot, continuing the strength seen in yesterday’s session, with the hotter-than-expected PPI print unable to cap sentiment in the run-up to today’s CPI.
Dollar is depressed ahead of US CPI data after brief bounces post-PPI and FOMC minutes – DXY edges closer to chart prop within tight 105.530-730 confines.
Franc remains firm on safe-haven grounds – USD/CHF probes 0.9000 and EUR/CHF nearer 0.9550 than 0.9600.
Euro retains 1.0600+ status vs Buck and is surrounded by hefty option expiry interest.
Yen is still drawn to 149.00 against Greenback as BoJ’s Noguchi sticks to dovish guidance.
Cable unstable above 1.2300 amidst mixed UK macro releases and BoE members highlighting the extent of hikes in the pipeline.
Crude front-month futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite any fresh macro catalysts and as investors look ahead to US CPI.
Dutch TTF prices are once again on the grind higher after pulling back yesterday, with the complex still underpinned by Chevron’s Australian LNG situation alongside the suspected sabotage of the Baltic-connector gas pipeline in the run-up to winter heating season.
Spot gold continues grinding higher despite the recovery of the Dollar as geopolitical premium continues to be baked into the yellow metal.
IEA OMR: raises 2023 oil demand forecast to 2.3mln BPD (vs. prev. 2.2mln BPD), cuts 2024 to 880k BPD (vs. prev. 1mln BPD) amid weaker economic environment and efficiency improvements. The pullback in oil reflects demand destruction. Israel-Hamas conflict has not had a direct impact on oil flows; ready to act to keep the market well-supplied if needed. OPEC+ voluntary cuts will keep the market in deficit in Q4 but could shift to a surplus if extra cuts are unwound in January. Russian total oil exports rose 460k BPD in September.
Saudi Energy Minister said the oil market should not be left alone; we should be proactive given numerous challenges.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said the market is very sensitive but the balance; we quickly react to the situation in the oil market where there are many uncertainties; global economy is growing slower than expected. He added global oil demand will increase by 2.4mln BPD this year. He added that Russia lowered exports of oil and oil products, and Russian OPEC+ commitments include oil product exports.
Iraq oil ministry spokesperson said OPEC+ priorities include achieving stability and balance in global markets. Severity of impact from security events on supply/demand flows depends on how long such events last. OPEC+ does not deal with fast reactions to challenges that face the market. Iraq is committed to voluntary cuts, according to Reuters.
Grain storage facility and grain was damaged in Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, according to Reuters.
BoE’s Dhingra said they think only about 20%-25% of the impact of interest rate hikes has been fed through to the economy and suggested that when growth is as slow as it is now, the chances of a recession or not recession are going to be pretty equally balanced so they should be prepared for that and it is not going to be great times ahead. Furthermore, she added that if growth falls by much more than the BoE expects from here, a cut may happen sooner, according to the BBC.
BoE’s Pill said finely balanced issue if the BoE still has more to do. A lot of policy tightening is yet to come through. Inflation in the UK remains too high, according to Reuters. Pill said it is premature from policy perspective to be discussing unwinding policy; we may become overly sensitive to short-term fluctuations in data.
ECB’s Stournaras sees no value in bringing forward the end of PEPP and sees no reason to raise banks’ requirements. He added that Italy’s government must reassure the European Commission and investors, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Makhlouf said the ECB will have a better feel on rates after December. He added Italian bond spread will focus the ECB.
ECB’s Wunsch said monetary policy is at the right level. Inflation shock from increasing oil prices could lead to an additional rate hike. When asked about whether October will see a PEPP announcement, said PEPP should be discussed, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Villeroy said monetary patience is currently more important than activism; duration is more important than level, according to Reuters.
EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
UK GDP Estimate MM (Aug) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.5%)
UK GDP Estimate YY (Aug) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.0%)
UK GDP Est 3M/3M (Aug) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
UK RICS Housing Survey (Sep) -69 vs. Exp. -63 (Prev. -68)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Collins (non-voter) said the Fed is at or near the peak of the rate cycle and a further hike could be warranted depending on incoming data, while she expects the Fed to keep policy restrictive for some time and said policy must stay restrictive until clear sign inflation moves to target of 2%.
UAW said the 8,700 UAW members at Ford’s (F) Kentucky plant joined the strike after Ford refused to make further movement in bargaining, according to Reuters.
BoJ Board Member Noguchi said there is no need to rush into responding to the rise in long-term rates; no need to immediately make YCC adjustments. BoJ Board Member Noguchi said they cannot be optimistic about an acceleration in wage growth; inflation is due to import price hikes including currency factors. There is still a distant to the achievement of the 2% inflation target, according to Reuters. He added it is wrong to think the rise in interest rates could bring forward the timing of policy change.
Illumina (ILMN) must restore Grail’s (GRAL) independence to the same level as prior to the acquisition, according to EU regulators; has been asked to sell Grail after it completed the deal before securing approval.
Russia and India are in talks about a summit this year between President Putin and PM Modi, according to Ria.
Iran’s Foreign Minister is to travel to Lebanon amid the Israel-Palestine events, according to Tasnim citing the ambassador.
US Secretary of State Blinken has landed in Israel, according to Reuters witness.
US President Biden said the US is sending military assistance to Israel and they made it clear to the Iranians to “be careful”. Furthermore, President Biden held a call with UAE’s President and stressed his condemnation of Hamas, while the leaders discussed the importance of ensuring humanitarian assistance reaches those in need.
US believes that Iran knew about the Hamas attack plan but not the timing and scale of the attack, according to WSJ.
China Commerce Ministry on reports of the EU planning an anti-subsidy probe of Chinese steelmakers said EU’s action is against international trade offer, according to Reuters.
A Committee of Russia’s Parliament lower house has drafted legislation to revoke the treaty on the nuclear test ban, according to Ria.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was lacklustre following a recent retreat to beneath the USD 27,000 level.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were firmer after the region took impetus from the intraday rebound on Wall St where dovish Fed rhetoric offset the hot PPI data, while stale FOMC Minutes provided no major fireworks.
ASX 200 was led higher by early outperformance in its top-weighted financial industry although the gains in the index were limited as energy and the defensive sectors lagged.
Nikkei 225 was boosted on a break above the 32,000 level following softer-than-expected PPI data and comments from BoJ Board Member Noguchi who continued to toe the dovish line.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned in which the Hong Kong benchmark gapped above the 18,000 level and spearheaded the advances in the region, while Chinese banks were buoyed after China’s sovereign wealth fund raised its stake in the largest banks for the first time since 2015.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese securities regulator banned brokerages and their offshore units from taking on new mainland clients for offshore trading and it set an end-October deadline for the removal of apps and websites soliciting mainland clients, according to Reuters sources.
China studies easing foreign stake limits in Chinese firms, via Bloomberg. In-fitting with reports seen in late September. Total overseas ownership in local firms is currently capped at 30%
Chinese GDP growth might slow in Q3 to above 4.0% Y/Y from 6.3% growth in Q2 but is expected to improve after Q3, according to Securities Daily.
BoJ Board Member Noguchi said the biggest focus is whether wage hike momentum will be maintained or not and the raising of the YCC band does not signify a tightening of monetary policy, while he added when inflation expectations are rising, some flexibility is needed to continue easy policy under YCC. Furthermore, Noguchi said there are signs upward price pressures are coming down and the BoJ’s near-term mission is to realise a situation where wage growth does not fall short of inflation as soon as possible through persistent monetary easing.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Sep) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Sep) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev. 3.3%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Aug) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -1.1%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Aug) -7.7% vs. Exp. -7.3% (Prev. -13.0%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.95 PTS OR .94% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.11 PTS OR 1.93% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 558.15 PTS OR 1.75% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.708 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2996 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2961 /Oil DOWN TO 84.36 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 86.73 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY/UKRAINE
this is to help Ukraine through the winter
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
Germany’s New $1.1BN Arms Package For Ukraine Is To Help Get Through Winter
Germany on Tuesday announced a $1.1 billion weapons package for Ukraine that Berlin said was to help Kyiv get through the winter.
The package includes a US-made Patriot air defense system, two German-made IRIS-T air defense systems, 10 more German Leopard tanks, and other types of equipment.Via Reuters
“With this new ‘winter package,’ we are further enhancing the readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces in the coming months,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
The provision of such a large arms package demonstrates that NATO is preparing to support the conflict for another year. In Washington, the White House and hawks in Congress are considering authorizing a giant Ukraine aid package to get through the 2024 election.
After initially being reluctant to go all in on the proxy war, Germany has become one of Ukraine’s top NATO backers, second only to the US.
According to the German-based Kiel Institute, Berlin has provided Ukraine with about $18 billion in military aid, compared with about $44.5 billion provided by the US.
In the early days of the conflict, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was opposed to providing Ukraine with tanks and warplanes because he was trying to avoid World War III and nuclear war.
Ukraine has since been armed with dozens of German-made Leopard tanks, and Berlin approved the transfer of Soviet-era MiG-29s from Poland to Ukraine that initially came from Germany’s military.
end
FRANCE
Finally, slowly but surely the world is waking up. France bans all pro Palestinian protests in a drastic crackdown
(zerohedge)
France Bans All Pro-Palestinian Protests In Drastic Crackdown
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 12:45 PM
In a surprise move which is sure to be widely condemned as brazen and massive overreach stomping on free speech, the French government of Emmanuel Macron has just announced it is banning pro-Palestinian protests. Paris says it’s necessary to maintain national security and prevent anti-semitic attacks.
Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin announced Thursday in a letter to law enforcement across the country that they are “likely to generate disturbances to public order.”
Presumably demonstrators might not be able to not so much as fly a Palestinian flag. But this crackdown itself sets the stage for rioting (given that’s what the French are already good at).
More importantly, the Arab/North African population of France is already at a staggering 5-6 million people, or at around 10% of the total population, according to some estimates. Major cities of the last couple years have already been beset by migrant-fueled riots and unrest. Huge numbers of the French Arab community were also born in France.
It seems this is a preemptive effort of government authorities to halt any kind of Islamic ‘day of rage’ which Hamas leadership had publicly called for earlier in the week.
What’s more is that this dramatic move is being framed as part of thwarting antisemitic attacks:
In a statement, Gérald Darmanin ordered foreign nationals who break the rules to be “systematically deported”.
The move comes as European governments fear a rise in antisemitism triggered by the Israel-Hamas war.
On Thursday, German police broke up a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Berlin.
France has a Jewish community of almost 500,000, the biggest in Europe. France’s Muslim community is also among Europe’s largest – an estimated five million.
Mr Darmanin told regional prefects that Jewish schools and synagogues should be protected by a visible police presence.
President Macron has confirmed that at least 12 French citizens died in the Saturday Hamas attack, while 17 more are missing, among them four children.
Given this new ban on pro-Palestinian protests, and given tensions are already rising across Europe as more and more competing pro- and anti-Israel demonstrations pop up, Friday is going to be interesting to say the least. French police are bracing themselves for likely major unrest.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA
Hamas leader call for a global muslim uprising on Friday the 13th. Good reason for Biden to open up his southern border to these thugs
(zerohedge)
Hamas Leader Calls For Global Muslim Uprising In ‘Day Of Rage’ On Friday, Report Says
WEDNESDAY, OCT 11, 2023 – 05:05 PM
A screenshot of a video on X (first posted on YouTube) shows Khaled Mashal, the former leader and founding member of Hamas, who allegedly called on Muslims earlier this week to unleash a ‘Day of Rage’ on Friday.
X user “Brother Rachid,” a former Muslim, now a follower of Christ, has been the first to share the contents of Mashal’s speech. He outlined the key points:
To show anger, especially next Friday, in Muslim countries and Also among Muslim diaspora around the world; he called it “the Friday of Al-Aqsa flood”, he said this will send a message of rage to Zionists and to Americ
He asked for financial help from all Muslims around the world; to help with their money, he called it “Financial Jihad”. He asked Muslims to give to the fighters of Gaza in order to compensate them for the destruction
He asked political pressure, from Muslim leaders and Muslim nations, to stop Israel’s military invasion of Gaza
The most important thing: He asked all Muslims around the world to carry Jihad by their souls; to fight and be martyrs for Al-Aqsa. He wants Muslims to fight against the Jews, starting with Muslims who live in the countries surrounding Israel: Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt (but also other countries), to go to the borders and try to enter, each by his own means. He said: This is the time for Jihad to be applied on the ground rather than just in theory. He asked the Mujahedeen to go in long caravans to spell their blood on the land of Palestine.
The ‘final words’ of Mashal’s speech included, “Funds are important but today we are asking for your blood and souls [to be sacrificed for Palestine,” according to Brother Rachid.
In a separate post, Brother Rachid provided his analysis based on Mashal’s speech:
Predict possible terrorist attacks next Friday (or even before), in European countries and the U.S. against Jewish targets, and also American targets
I predict protests, in Muslim countries and in western countries, led by Islamists showing rage by acts of violence and destruction
I predict possible attacks against Americans and Jews in some of the Muslim countries
I predict no one will show up at the borders of Israel to carry Jihad
The possibility that Khaled Mashal’s threat is real should concern Western countries.
Maybe the threat is real: New York City was placed on “high alert” Tuesday by New York Mayor Eric Adams, who urged citizens not to “underestimate” the threat from lone-wolf terrorists whom Hamas has radicalized.
Meanwhile, Illinois Republican Congresswoman Mary Miller told X users:
“Americans must remain vigilant and prepared to defend ourselves and our families since Joe Biden has opened our southern border and we have no idea who has crossed into our country.
“The Second Amendment is the great safeguard of liberty & security. Never give up your 2A rights.”
All of this comes as President Biden and Democrats have attempted to strip away the Second Amendment from law-abiding citizens while flooding the nation with millions of illegals from around the world.
Gun Owners of America noted earlier this week, “Politicians who push gun control should realize that their actions will only empower criminals and terrorists.”
The announcement by NYC and NYC FBI to be extra vigilant for threats is an ominous sign.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Netanyahu vows every Hamas operative will die. A huge 330,000 reservist call up
(zerohedge)
Netanyahu Vows “Every Hamas Operative Will Die” As Israeli Citizenry Mobilizes For War
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 05:45 AM
WEDNESDAY, OCT 11, 2023 – 06:20 PM
Update(1820ET): PM Netanyahu, just after forming an emergency war-time government with Benny Gantz…
And Gantz too spoke of total societal mobilization in Wednesday night words:
Benny Gantz, who joined an emergency government with Netanyahu, stated on Wednesday that his cooperation with the government is “a clear message to our adversaries and to all Israeli citizens: all of us together are mobilizing.” Gantz said after the Security Cabinet meeting in which he participated, “Just as people from left and right, from the city and the village, go out to fight, decisions of the government will also be made by people from different camps. Now, we are all one camp – the camp of the people of Israel.”
These Israeli leaders don’t seem too concerned (an understatement) about the immense and rapidly mounting civilian casualties among Palestinians caught under the air war with nowhere to go, as a long, bloody ground campaign in the Gaza Strip looks inevitable.
IDF reservists have been returning to Israel from abroad in droves.
END
ISRAEL/RUSSIA/
ROBERT H: TO US:
Russia: “Everybody Get Out of Israel” – US Sends 101st Airborne Division to Jordan – 5 Front Battles Seen for IDF – WarNews247
This is complete madness on the loose as there can be no winners and only death of war mongers and innocent people. The answer to coexistence is peace and dialogue with a respect for life and not killing in revenge. Revenge has throughout history only caused more vilification and dying in the future. It is truly puzzling why people refuse to read history and learn to create a better tomorrow. We are all brothers and sisters regardless of religion, color and place of birth and we all bleed red and die the same. It matters not, rich or poor or status in life death is death and it ultimately comes to all of us. What is however very clear, years of neglect of naive immigration policies are going to in the future come home to roost and with this ignite a violence upon Europe being blindly ignored until it explodes. Couple this with rising prices which are forcing people to rent vs buying and you have another situation where hopelessness will exist as people find themselves trapped in an existence not imagined in their youth as a lifetime of adulthood. Crazy times lie ahead unlike anything seen in our lifetime.
Lawsuit proceeds alleging Biden admin violated law by funding Palestine amid ‘Pay to Slay’ terror
A federal lawsuit is proceeding in Texas claiming that the Biden administration knowingly violated U.S. law by providing funding to the Palestinian Authority even as the government body still operated its “Pay to Slay” program.
Federal Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk on Tuesday evening ordered for the lawsuit, filed by America First Legal in 2022, to enter the discovery phase, a pre-trial process that parties use to gather information, Fox News reported.
The lawsuit stated that President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued paying the Palestinian Authority after former President Donald Trump ended the practice with the Taylor Force Act, a law named after West Point graduate Taylor Force who was murdered by a terrorist in Tel Aviv.
The law prohibits the federal government from giving U.S. taxpayer dollars to the Palestinian Authority until it stops supporting terrorism, but in 2021, the State Department approved plans to give $250 million in U.S. taxpayer dollars to the Palestinian people.
The Palestinian Authority operates a “Martyrs Fund,” dubbed by critics as the “Pay to Slay” program. It gives cash stipends to the families of Palestinians who were killed or incarcerated after attempting to perpetrate a terrorist attack against Israel.
“Under Pay to Slay, the Palestinian Authority rewards terrorists and/or their families with increased rewards in proportion to the casualties inflicted. Terrorists who are married, or have children, or are Israeli residents/citizens receive an additional payment. Terrorists who spend more than 5 years (in a single term or cumulatively) in prison are paid a guaranteed salary by the Palestinian Authority for the rest of their lives,” the lawsuit states.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday said he’d seen “confirmed pictures” that beheaded children were among the many victims of the Hamas terrorists who murdered hundreds of civilians in Israeli border towns this weekend. The White House later issued a statement to clarify his remarks.
The reports of Hamas beheading infants came as the world was already grappling with the extent of the crimes being described in Israel’s southern kibbutz communities, which bore the brunt of the wave of 1,500 terrorists who invaded Israel on Oct. 7.
During a roundtable with Jewish community leaders at the White House on Wednesday, President Biden emphasized the importance of Americans understanding the nature of the unfolding events.
“It matters that Americans see what’s happening. I’ve been doing this [for] a long time. I never really thought that I would see … have confirmed pictures of terrorists beheading children,” the president said.
White House national security aides have said that they have not had access to the images.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, who joined President Biden at the roundtable alongside other White House officials, told the Washington Examiner that while he hadn’t personally seen the beheading photos, he trusted the president’s assertion of their existence.
The White House later walked back President Biden’s comments, telling the Washington Post that neither President Biden nor U.S. officials have seen photos nor independently verified the reports coming out of Israel. Instead, the president had based his confirmation of the atrocities on allegations put forward by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson Tal Heinrich, The Post said.
The Epoch Times has contacted the White House for further comment.
Maj. Gen. Itai Veruv speaks to members of the media at Kibbutz Be’eri where dozens of civilians were killed days earlier by Hamas terrorists near the border with Gaza in Be’eri, Israel, on Oct. 11, 2023. (Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
Origin of Reports
On Tuesday, Israeli Major General Itai Veruv told CNN that babies and toddlers had been found among the butchered in Kfar Aza kibbutz, a small community near Israeli’s southern border with Gaza. Fighting in the kibbutz had only been brought under control by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that morning.
He described, “They cut head off the people,” and that the IDF was going house to house to recover the dead in body bags, which were then loaded onto a truck.
“They kill babies in front of the parents, and then kill the parents; they kill parents and we found babies in between the dogs and the family they killed before him,” he said.
However, there has been confusion regarding the statements whether babies were among those decapitated, with some media outlets reporting that they had been unable to independently verify whether babies were among those beheaded.
On Wednesday, the IDF showed on X, formerly Twitter, that they were allowing members of the international media to tour the Kfar Aza, which Major General Itai Veruv described as a site where Hamas terrorists carried out a “massacre” of women, children, toddlers and the elderly.
Davidi Ben Zion, deputy commander of Unit 71 who led the recovery of Kfar Aza, told the BBC that Hamas gunmen had killed families, including babies, and that some of the victims had been decapitated.
He called the terrorists “a jihad machine” that went in to “kill everybody, [people] without weapons, without nothing, just normal citizens that want to take their breakfast and that’s all.”
“They killed them and cut some of their heads, it’s a dreadful thing to see… and we must remember who is the enemy, and what our mission is, [for] justice where there is a right side and all the world needs to be behind us.”
As little photo evidence of the sensitive scenes unfolding in many of the kibbutzes has been publicly released, President Biden’s comments are an official acknowledgment of Israeli accounts of infant beheadings by Hamas.
‘Sheer Evil’
President Biden condemned the actions of terrorist groups, particularly Hamas, for bringing “sheer evil” into the world and causing immense suffering. He likened these events to some of the worst atrocities in history, suggesting it was the “deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.”
Mr. Heinrich also repeated the assertion on Wednesday, while an IDF spokesperson reportedly was unable to confirm the reports, but said, “You can assume it happened and believe the report.”
A covered body in a southern Israeli border town near Gaza, where Hamas terrorists infiltrated and killed on Oct. 7, 2023, is seen days later as accounting for victims continues on Oct. 11, 2023. (Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images)
Hamas Denies Claims
On Wednesday, Hamas issued a statement denying the reports that its operatives beheaded children or attacked women during the raids, accusing Israel of spreading lies “with no evidence to support such claims and lies.”
“We strongly condemn the fabricated and baseless allegations promoted by the occupation in an attempt to cover up for the massacres, crimes, and genocide committed in Gaza,” said Izzat al-Risheq, a Hamas spokesman and senior official.
The IDF has said that women, the elderly, and children, including toddlers, were “brutally butchered in an ISIS way of action” by Hamas in towns like Kfar Aza, a kibbutz in southern Israel.
President Biden said that he’d spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday and revealed that the United States would be sending additional ammunition to replenish Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, a critical missile defense system that intercepts and destroys incoming rockets and mortar shells.
The United States is also positioning its carrier fleet in the eastern Mediterranean and dispatching fighter jets to the region to support Israel’s defense.
“We’re going to work closely with our partners in Israel and around the world to make sure Israel has what it needs to defend its citizens, its cities, and respond to the attack,” President Biden added.
While not revealing specific details, President Biden also said the United States has deployed specialists to help recover hostages.
“There’s a lot we’re doing, a lot we’re doing. Folks, I haven’t given up hope of bringing these folks home,” he said. “But the idea that I’m going to stand here before you and tell you what I’m doing is bizarre.”
President Biden also said that some Arab nations are also “trying to help” Israel.
Earlier on Wednesday, President Biden spoke with President Mohamed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates about the situation in Israel and Gaza, to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches those in need, according to the White House.
During their discussion, President Biden “stressed his condemnation of Hamas’s terror and his warning against anyone who might seek to exploit the current situation,” the White House said.
END
This is now America’s war as well as Israeli
(zerohedge)
Americans Killed By Hamas Rises To 27, Over A Dozen Captive, As US Arranges Evacuation Flights
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 01:55 PM
Update(1355ET): The White House has confirmed that it has hostage negotiation experts in Israel working with the government and advising on hostage recovery. This as the death toll of Americans killed in the Saturday Hamas attack has risen to 27.
The numbers of missing Americans now stands at 14, according to a briefing by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. These are presumed to be in captivity in Gaza. “The U.S. does not know anything about the condition of the U.S. hostages held by Hamas,” Kirby confirmed.
Additional developments from various news wires and breaking headlines:
Israel says it has dropped 6,000 bombs in six days of bombardment
Israeli minister says no electricity, fuel or humanitarian aid into Gaza until Hamas releases all captives taken in unprecedented attack.
UK to send navy ships, surveillance planes to support Israel
Hamas calls high civilian death toll from Saturday assault “collateral damage” – ‘Things went out of control’: Hamas addresses high Israeli civilian death toll
After Blinken, Pentagon chief to also visit Israel
Blinken in Tel Aviv: As long as US exists, Israel won’t have to defend itself alone
Two Israeli police officers wounded, one seriously, in shooting near Old City in Jerusalem
Blinken says none of $6 billion in Iranian funds in Qatar have been spent or accessed
Netanyahu: Unity government sends a ‘huge message’; Israel will wipe out ‘barbaric’ Hamas
US to arrange charter flights for citizens to depart Israel
Marine unit leaves Kuwait exercise early because of ‘emerging events’
‘No conditions’ on use of US military support to Israel: Defence Sec. Austin
Families of UK citizens held hostage in Gaza beg for help: Captors ‘have no mercy’
Kirby: we support X taking down some misinformation on conflict
Kirby: grateful that X removed misinformation on Israel attack
The IDF build-up ahead of an expected ground assault into Gaza continues…
Testy media exchanges grow…
More calls for US action against Iran…
Pushback against prevailing Western media coverage from Al Jazeera…
New IDF footage of elite team…
Hamas may have released a family from captivity. The following aired on Al Jazeera yesterday…
Growing outrage over mounting Gaza civilian deaths…
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Israel attacks the two major airports of Syria, Damascus and Aleppo giving a staunch warning to stay out of the conflict
(zerohedge)
Israel Bombs Damascus & Aleppo Airports Before Iran’s Foreign Minister Due To Arrive
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 09:15 AM
Update(0948ET): Iranian state sources say foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian’s plane has landed in Baghdad. It’s unclear whether he will continue on his trip to visit Syria, which some reports say is scheduled for tomorrow.
State media said his trip is “in light of the current Palestinian events, the crimes committed against Gaza and their dangerous ramifications.” At this moment, it appears the only functioning major airport in Syria is in Lattakia, or there would also be the possibility of the Iranians utilizing the Russian airbase. Syria also has military airports.
Two days ago rockets were fired from Syria into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which regional media sources said was in “solidarity” with the Palestinian cause as war rages in Gaza. Likely it was a Syrian Army strike, but there remains the possibility of associated militias having conducted it, such as ‘Iran-linked’ groups.
IDF Spokesperson Jonathan Conricus said at the time, “Attacks, rockets were fired from Syria into Israel. We do not yet know if these rockets were fired by the Syrian National Army (SNA), by any of the many Iranian militias that exist and are welcomed by the Syrian regime or Hezbollah or any other faction. What we do know is that we retaliated towards the sources of fire and currently the situation there is quiet and let’s hope that it remains that way.”
But it seems Israel is indeed holding the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad responsible, as on Thursday the IDF has struck back against Syrian targets. Syrian state television is now confirming that Israel has launched attacks on the country’s two main international airports, in the capital of Damascus and Aleppo in the north. It happened while an Iranian plane was inbound.The Damascus International Airport, Google Earth
According to Reuters, “Local media channel Sham FM said Syrian air defenses were launched in response to both attacks. It said here had been damage but no casualties at the Aleppo airport, but did not give any information on the impact of the strike on Damascus Airport.”
State media has confirmed that the Israeli strikes hit runways and have left both airports out of commission. It’s not the first time Israel has attacked these airports, but them being both hit in a simultaneous operation appears a first. The Israeli army spokesman has also announced, “We bombed Damascus and Aleppo airports in response to the firing of mortar shells from Syria.”
There are reports that an Iranian plane has turned around due the the strikes on both airports, with Israeli newspaper Haartz writing,
“An Iranian plane turned around towards Tehran following airstrikes at the international airports in Damascus and Aleppo.”
Some aviation monitoring sources have speculated this may have been the plane of the Iranian foreign minister; however, there have been somewhat routine Tehran to Syria flights. Israel’s fresh attacks have sent a message to Tehran along with being retaliation for the earlier Syrian attack on the Golan Heights.
“The attacks came a day before Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, was due to visit Syria,” Reuters notes. “On Thursday, technical teams were out to determine the extent of damage at both sites, Syria’s transport ministry said.”
Both Washington and Israel have issued strong warnings to Iran, Syria, and Lebanese Hezbollah to not enter the Hamas-Israel conflict.
There have been emerging reports in Western media saying that the Iranians may have actually been taken by surprise with Saturday’s major Hamas incursion into southern Israel. The intelligence consensus out of US officials speaking to the media has been that while Iran has financed Hamas for years, it likely didn’t have direct involvement in the operation.
END
Super commentary from Chris Powell on the Middle East situation
Residents of densely populated Gaza, governed by the terrorist organization Hamas, are asking where they can go to escape the Israeli bombardment that was launched in response to this week’s devastating and barbaric missile and ground attack by Hamas on Israel.
The question is pathetic, for its answer is obvious, even if international journalism misses it too.
Gaza has been governed by Hamas for 17 years — that is, since the territory’s first and last election, when the people installed Hamas. They have done nothing to remove it.
If Gazans don’t like the war their government long has been waging against Israel, if they don’t like the partial blockade that Israel imposed in response, and if they are looking for somewhere to go, they should head for the seat of their gangster government and make a change — carrying whatever weapons are available to them.
The cheering in Gaza that greeted Hamas fighters as they returned from Israel with their hostages showed that many Gazans support the war even as it has brought them still another catastrophe. Since Hamas is sworn to Israel’s destruction, peace can come only with the destruction of one side or the other. As with Palestinians generally, many if not most Gazans prefer hate, war, and death forever over any peace shared with Jews.
Yet some people in the United States and Europe who considers themselves enlightened maintain that Israel should continue to supply Gaza with food, water, fuel, and electricity even as Gaza wages war on Israel. Indeed, Israel has provided those necessities to Gaza ever since evacuating the territory in 2005 in the hope that Gazans would choose peace, and continued to provide the necessities throughout Gaza’s frequent missile attacks. So Israel rather deserves the mendacity of its critics.
Israel’s critics lament that Israel has made Gaza “an open-air prison,” as if that isn’t explained by Gaza’s persistence in war.
Of course if the United States was attacked by missiles from Mexico, it would nuke everything all the way down to Guadalajara. Any self-respecting nation with military might would respond similarly to missile attacks by a neighbor. But Israel’s critics maintain that the country must not defend itself, or must defend itself only “proportionately” — this is, not enough to win.
*
Since the Hamas government of Gaza stages its missile attacks from densely populated areas, and since Gazans don’t object, nearly everything in Gaza is a fair target. Even so Israel should be explicit about its policy: that there will be no end to the destruction and no food, fuel, water, electricity, and medicine until Gaza surrenders, installs a new government that makes peace, releases its hostages, delivers its criminal leaders, and accepts a long occupation and reformation as the defeated totalitarian powers of World War II had to do.
Israel will lose if it again makes release of hostages its primary objective. To win, Israel must acknowledge that the hostages probably will be murdered — and ensure that they are avenged.
Of course without the complete destruction of their territory many Gazans will oppose surrender. Like the Palestinians on the other side of Israel, those in Gaza first must have their civil war, just as the Jews had their civil war in the years prior to Israel’s re-establishment in 1948 — a civil war to decide whether to settle with the neighbors or press on with a war for their extermination.
*
There are irreconcilables on both sides, but they are much stronger on the Palestinian side. Any Palestinian leader and almost any Arab leader who pursues peace with Israel risks assassination by the irreconcilables, just as Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin were assassinated for pursuing peace.
But no Israeli invasion of Gaza is necessary — no horrific house-to-house fighting. Without food, water, fuel, electricity, and medicine, Gaza soon enough will collapse into mass misery, starvation, disease, and death. This best can be prevented by the Gazans themselves. They cannot escape responsibility for their government any more than the people of any other country can escape responsibility for theirs.
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics — and sometimes other things — for many years. (CPowell@cox.net)
end
Israel’s defense chief admits failure to protect citizens. Security collapsed like dominoes
(zerohedge)
Israel’s Defense Chief Admits Failure To Protect Citizens After Security “Collapsed Like Dominoes”
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 11:15 AM
As heavy Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip continues for a sixth day, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have said they are degrading Hamas’ ability to rule, with spokesman Daniel Hagari stating, “In certain areas, the organization can no longer rule and we will continue until this is the case throughout.”
Hagari has also said that “Israel is targeting those who filmed and broadcast Hamas’s murderous invasion of southern Israel on Saturday morning. Overnight, the military killed Mustafa Shahin, a Hamas operative the IDF identified from footage online.”
However, one wonders: if Israel’s military and intelligence is this efficient at positively identifying Hamas operatives and their residences or hideouts in the middle of a war unfolding, how was Saturday’s large-scale incursion – in which jihadists even took over IDF outposts – able to happen? How was it not foreseen (and with the widely reported Egyptian advanced warning to boot)?
There’s been growing anger among the Israeli populace at the many failures of the Netanyahu government to protect them:
And in his first statement since the war’s outbreak, IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, issued a rare statement of regret for failing to foresee and stop the Hamas massacres of Israelis on Saturday: “the IDF is responsible for the security of the state and its citizens, and on Saturday morning, in the Gaza border communities, we did not fulfill that responsibility. We will learn, investigate, but now it is a time for war.”
This is being widely perceived as an unprecedented apology by Israel’s military leadership for its failure to protect the citizenry. According to the latest mounting casualty numbers:
• The Israeli death toll has risen to 1,200, including 189 soldiers, an Israel Defense Forces spokesman confirmed on Wednesday.
• At least 1,400 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip in Israeli airstrikes, with more than 6,268 others injured, the Palestinian Health Ministry said.
• At least 25 U.S. citizens were among those killed, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday.
Halevi added, “We will reach a situation where those who lead Gaza will face severe consequences; we will dismantle it. Those who remain there should understand very well that such actions are not taken against the State of Israel. It will take time, and it requires patience.”
Earlier in the week Israeli defense sources had acknowledged to multiple Western media outlets, notably among them The New York Times, that its intelligence failed on multiple fronts.
The Timeswrote, “These operational failures and weaknesses were among a wide array of logistical and intelligence lapses by the Israeli security services that paved the way for the Gazan incursion into southern Israel, according to four senior Israeli security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss a sensitive matter and their early assessment of what went wrong.”
In total some 20 Israeli towns, Kibbutz settlements, and army bases were overrun in the country’s single deadliest 24-hours in its history. Speaking to four Israeli security officials, NYT also outlined that the wave of lapsesincluded:
Failure by intelligence officers to monitor key communication channels used by Palestinian attackers;
Overreliance on border surveillance equipment that was easily shut down by attackers, allowing them to raid military bases and slay soldiers in their beds;
Clustering of commanders in a single border base that was overrun in the opening phase of the incursion, preventing communication with the rest of the armed forces;
And a willingness to accept at face value assertions by Gazan military leaders, made on private channels that the Palestinians knew were being monitored by Israel, that they were not preparing for battle.
And then there’s this epic line in the report: “We spend billions and billions on gathering intelligence on Hamas,” Yoel Guzansky, a former senior official of Israel’s National Security Council, said. “Then, in a second, everything collapsed like dominoes.”
Meanwhile, other top Israeli minister’s are issuing public apologies:
Israel’s education minister, whose portfolio has nothing to do with keeping the country safe, became the first government official to apologize for the intelligence failures that allowed Hamas militants to slaughter an estimated 1,300 people over the weekend in a savage surprise attack that has plunged the region into war.
“No one will escape responsibility. We are responsible—I am responsible as a member of the government,” Yoav Kisch told Ynet Live on Thursday.
“We were busy with nonsense,” said Kisch, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, in a reference to divisive political battles that had split Israeli society for the past year.
Some online pundits have theorized that Netanyahu may have known some kind of major Hamas attack was coming but turned a blind eye, in order to justify a military policy of obliterating and then taking over the Gaza Strip. They are questioning how Mossad, one of the most sophisticated, celebrated, and high-tech intel agencies in the world – could have been “asleep at the wheel” to this level of catastrophic failure.
Israel on Thursday denied a claim from House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) that Egyptian intelligence warned Israel about the wide-scale Hamas terror attack three days before it happened.
Netanyahu first denied the report on Monday after Hamas terrorists killed 1,200 people, including at least 25 U.S. citizens, on Saturday.
He called the story “fake news and false propaganda that is published with the aim of scaring us and dividing us,” as translated. He also said Egyptian intelligence “did not exist and was not created.”
But for now the Netanyahu-Gantz emergency war time government can simply tell the public to “shut-up” because “we’re at war”.
end
Finally, the $6 billion funds to Iran is frozen by USA and Qatar
(zerohedge)
US, Qatar Agree To Stop Iran From Accessing $6 Billion Fund After Bipartisan Pressure On Biden
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 11:57 AM
Update (12:00pm ET):
US officials and the Qatari government have agreed to stop Iran from accessing a $6 billion account for humanitarian assistance in light of Hamas’s attack on Israel, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told House Democrats on Thursday, the WaPo reported citing the usual “two people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private remarks.”
As Punchbowl first reported, Adeyemo told House Democrats that the money “isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.”
The decision not to permit access to the money comes just a few weeks after the U.S. and Iranian governments announced a deal to set up the humanitarian assistance as part of a prisoner swap aimed at easing hostilities in the region. U.S. officials had to approve each transaction under the agreement. The fund is financed by Iranian oil sales.
But President Biden has faced mounting bipartisan pressure on Capitol Hill to prevent the funds from being used by Iran, amid scrutiny of Tehran’s links to Hamas.
As the WaPo correctly notes, “rescinding the aid would embolden hard-line voices in Iran that have rejected working with the West, said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a foreign policy think tank. Parsi also speculated that such a move could shift opinion within the regime in favor of building a nuclear bomb.”
“If this step is taken, that status quo falls apart — and it will have a very detrimental effect on the internal discussions in Iran, within the regime,” Parsi said. “If there is no prospect of a deal with the U.S., it will likely tilt Iran toward building a bomb — and that would be an extremely dangerous situation.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has declared nuclear weapons forbidden by Islam and has vowed that Iran will never seek to build or acquire them.
* * *
Following this weekend’s attack by Hamas on Israel, the United States could re-freeze at any time the $6 billion for humanitarian purposes to Iran which was part of a prisoner swap last month, Bloomberg reports.
In September, five Americans imprisoned in Iran were officially flown out of Tehran as the U.S. unfroze some $6 billion in Iranian oil funds held for five years. The prisoner swap deal also included the release of five Iranian prisoners being held by Americans, two of whom plan to stay in the U.S.
The deal between Washington and Tehran reached in August pledged to give Tehran access to nearly $6 billion in frozen oil revenues on the condition that the funds be used for humanitarian purposes.
However, the U.S. Administration is now weighing the option to freeze those funds again, although there has been no official blaming of Iran for any role in the Hamas attack, yet.
Intelligence agencies haven’t found yet hard evidence that Iran was behind the attack, but they believe Iranian officials knew of a plot by Hamas to carry out some action in Israel, an anonymous U.S. official told Bloomberg on Wednesday.
Commenting on the $6 billion funds to Iran, John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications at the White House, told MSNBC this week “That money can be frozen at any time. We can stop any transaction.”
“None of it has been allocated. None of it has been spent. So it’s all still sitting in a Qatari bank, and that is an option that’s available to us,” Kirby added.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, referring to the $6 billion, “I wouldn’t take anything off the table in terms of future possible actions.”
6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
RFK Jr.’s Strong Stance Against COVID Vaccines Appeals To Some Trump Voters
Attendees of an event at the Mississippi Civil Rights Museum where Mr. Kennedy spoke on Oct. 2 discussed with The Epoch Times their concerns and what they appreciated about his message, but noted significant differences between the two.
“As Kennedy has been calling out the truth no matter how much criticism he’s faced for it, Trump has really been silent on the whole COVID sham,” Scott Stringer said.
“In my mind, Trump was tricked.”
Mr. Kennedy has frequently railed against the ties between Big Pharma, the medical profession, and the government that has been toxic for the country, Mr. Stringer said.
“The medical community cannot be trusted,”he said.
In a recent visit to the doctor’s office with his son, he said staff pushed the vaccine, which was unrelated to why they were there.
“I can’t believe they did that with all the medical data that’s come in,” he said.
Charlotte Stringer, Mr. Stringer’s wife, agreed that President Trump needs to admit that he was wrong. This admission, she said, would bring him more support.
The problem is, given his personality, it’s unlikely he will confess to such an enormous mistake, she said.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen,” she said. “With that said, I think he’s the best choice to run this country.”
On Mr. Kennedy’s speech, she appreciated his open-mindedness given his history as a person who for years listened to and advocated for mothers of the vaccine-injured while they were being dismissed by the pharmaceutical industry.
Having witnessed churches close and continue to take in tithes while simultaneously getting loans from the Paycheck Protection Program, she said Mr. Kennedy’s stance against the lockdowns, specifically regarding the closure of the churches, resonated intensely with her.
“That really made me have huge respect for him,” she said.
‘We’ve Got to Stop the Shots’
MaryJo Perry, president of Mississippi Parents for Vaccine Rights (MPVR), said she’s troubled by President Trump’s unwillingness to admit what she describes as Operation Warp Speed having been a failure.
“I don’t know if his motive is pride, or if there’s something else going on,” she said.
Mr. Trump planned to set up a commission to investigate childhood vaccines back in 2017 after he got elected and was about to take the White House, Mr. Kennedy broke the news and said he would chair the commission after he met Mr. Trump on Jan. 10, 2017.
However, the idea was never implemented and the Trump Campaign didn’t confirm the proposal.
Ms. Perry pointed to a video of Bill Gates stating that he had advised President Trump against the investigation.
“That would be a bad thing, don’t do that,” Mr. Gates said in the interview.
Though she doesn’t know if this was why President Trump abandoned the idea of starting a commission with Mr. Kennedy.
Also present was Dr. John Witcher, founder of MS Against Mandates, who was fired for treating COVID patients with ivermectin.
“Though he never mandated them, he pushed the shots and has said multiple times that he saved 100 million people by rolling out the vaccines,” Dr. Witcher said. “He knows that a lot of his constituents are 100 percent against the vaccine, but he doesn’t want to admit that he was duped by Dr. Fauci.”
“Of course, that’s what Kennedy has been out there saying from Day One,” Dr. Witcher said. “He continues to be against the shot. And we’ve got to stop these shots.”
‘A Man of Integrity’
Overall, Mr. Stringer said that it came off “very clearly” that Mr. Kennedy was “a man of integrity.”
“He believes in his positions, and he’s not afraid to change his views,” he said.
On whether a Trump/Kennedy ticket would work, Mr. Stringer said there’s no question that both love the country, unlike the current administration.
The alliance could have the potential to unify the nation, he said.
But there would need to be an alignment on issues like energy and the COVID vaccines, he said.
“I agree more with Trump on energy, and we’ve got to have a better energy policy, but how does that stand with where Kennedy stands on energy?” Mr. Stringer asked. “Kennedy doesn’t like nuclear energy or coal, and he worked to remove fracking from New York State, though he and Trump seem to agree on wind energy and the fact that it’s gotten out of control.”
On vaccines, they would need to come to an understanding, he said.
“Trump would need to reconcile with the great work Mr. Kennedy has done to expose the truth on vaccines so that Trump can leverage that and say, ‘You know what, I was duped,’” he said.
Both have taken a stance against the Ukraine war, which Mr. Stringer also opposes.
“We do not need to send them another dime,” he said. “I think there’s some suppression of real information on what’s going on over there. I think it’s one of the most corrupt governments and countries in the world, honestly.”
Mr. Stringer said he believes Mr. Kennedy would make a great vice president and a great president.
Before Mr. Kennedy announced a week later on Monday, Oct. 9, that he would not be running as a Democrat but as an independent, those in last week’s audience were already speculating that he would be leaving his former party.
Mr. Stringer said he wasn’t concerned over whether this decision could end up drawing votes from either side.
“I’m not afraid that anyone speaking the truth is going to split the vote,” he said. “The big question is who’s he going to take the votes from? Biden or Trump?”
Predicting that Mr. Kennedy would leave the Democratic Party, Ms. Stringer wants to see President Trump leave the Republican Party and become independent as well.
“I would love to see them meet in the middle and run together,” she said.
Given the rate of the country’s decline, Ms. Stringer said she’s not overly concerned with hot-button social issues that seem to never be resolved and just wants to see President Trump back in office.
If Mr. Kennedy were to join him, even better, she said.
On concerns over spitting the vote, she believes Mr. Kennedy would take votes away from President Biden.
“There are a lot of people on the left who are seeing what Biden—or whoever is leading him—is doing and wishing they had voted for Trump,” she said. “It’s clear that a man who doesn’t know how to walk across a stage, who falls down, who can’t remember people’s names or state he’s in, is being controlled. He’s not running the show, and many on the left are realizing that their children won’t have a pot to pee in because he is turning this country into a laughingstock to the rest of the world.”
‘Trump Needs to Follow Kennedy’s Lead’
Dr. Witcher said he’s not alone in wanting to see Mr. Kennedy as vice president to President Trump.
“Like many people, I think they could be a great team together,” Dr. Witcher said. “We’ve got to expose the corruption at all levels of government.”
President Trump, he said, has the capacity and gumption to charge forward, while Mr. Kennedy has the experience of fighting against the pharmaceutical industry.
“The COVID vaccine mandates that were enacted are really the biggest issue, and we can’t forget that,” Dr. Witcher said. “There are a lot of people in his camp that voted for him who did not and will not take the vaccine. They saw COVID as a plandemic from day one. Trump needs to follow Kennedy’s lead on that because it’s the reason he’s so popular.”
When asked if he thought Mr. Kennedy would make a good leader, Ron Matis, the political director for the Mississippi District of the United Pentecostal Church, the organization that cosponsored the event with MPVR, said he thought that the most powerful statement he made was that he’s willing to examine all sides of the argument and, if wrong, adjust his worldview accordingly.
“That’s something you don’t hear people who are running for office say,” Mr. Matis said. “They seem to have everything baked in and are not willing to listen, so the fact that he said as a leader he would be open to changing his position based on evidence, I think a lot of people found that refreshing.”
end
(Brownstone)
Another Tacit Admission That COVID Mandates Were A Disastrous Mistake
Pandemic restrictions were an unmitigated failure, and the evidence base against the politicians and “experts” who imposed them and demanded compliance continues to grow.
And it raises some substantial questions about holding those responsible accountable for their actions. Especially as mask mandates return in certain parts of the country, with hints of more on the way.
Recently a new government report from the United Kingdom was released to little fanfare, which not-so-surprisingly mirrors the fanfare resulting from the release of new data from the CDC itself, showing how vaccine efficacy has fallen to zero.
Finally, Rochelle Walensky did acknowledge publicly that the vaccines couldn’t stop transmission. However it was already far too late to matter.
But all along the agency has strongly stated that the mRNA shots were effective at preventing hospitalizations. Or at least that the latest booster was effective, tacitly acknowledging that the original 2-dose series has lost whatever impact it once had.
What The Evidence Says About NPI’s
The UK’s Health Security Agency (HSA) recently posted a lengthy examination on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at preventing or slowing the spread of COVID-19 in the country.
And at the risk of revealing a spoiler alert, it’s not good news for the COVID extremists determined to bring mask mandates back.
The goal of the examination was laid out succinctly; the UK’s HSA intended to use primary studies on NPIs within the community to see how successful or unsuccessful they were at reducing COVID infections.
The purpose of this rapid mapping review was to identify and categorise primary studies that reported on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in community settings to reduce the transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.
Streamlined systematic methods were used, including literature searches (using sources such as Medline, Embase, and medRxiv) and use of systematic reviews as sources to identify relevant primary studies.
Unsurprisingly, they found that the evidence base on COVID interventions was exceptionally weak.
In fact, roughly 67 percent of the identified evidence was essentially useless.. In fact two-thirds of the evidence identified was modeling.
Two-thirds of the evidence identified was based on modeling studies (100 out of 151 studies).
There was a lack of experimental studies (2 out of 151 studies) and individual-level observational studies (22 out of 151 studies). Apart from test and release strategies for which 2 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were identified, the body of evidence available on effectiveness of NPIs in the UK provides weak evidence in terms of study design, as it is mainly based on modelling studies, ecological studies, mixed-methods studies and qualitative studies.
This is a key learning point for future pandemic preparedness: there is a need to strengthen evaluation of interventions and build this into the design and implementation of public health interventions and government policies from the start of any future pandemic or other public health emergency.
Modeling, as we know, is functionally useless, given that it’s hopelessly prone to bias, incorrect assumptions and the ideological needs of its creators.
The two paragraphs which followed are equally as important.
Low quality evidence is not something that should be relied upon for decision making purposes, yet that’s exactly what the UK, US and many other countries did. Fauci, the CDC, and others embraced modeling as fact at the beginning of the pandemic. They then repeatedly referenced shoddy, poor quality work because it confirmed their biases throughout its duration, with unsurprising results.
And this government report concurs; stating simply and devastatingly, “there is a lack of strong evidence on the effectiveness of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission, and for many NPIs the scientific consensus shifted over the course of the pandemic.”
Of course the scientific consensus shifted over the course of the pandemic because, as we learned, it became politically expedient for it to shift.
As their paragraphs on the available evidence show, there was little solid, high-quality data showing that NPI’s were having a significant impact on the spread of the virus, a reality that had been predicted by decades of pandemic planning.
But the consensus shifted towards NPIs and away from something approaching Sweden’s strategy or the Great Barrington Declaration, simply because Fauci, the CDC, and other “experts” demanded it shift to suit their ideological aims.
The few high-quality studies on say, masking, that were conducted during the pandemic showed that there was no benefit from mask wearing at an individual or population level. And that is why the Cochrane review came to its now infamous conclusion.
Instead of acknowledging that they were relying on poor quality evidence, the “experts” operated with an unjustified certainty that their interventions were based on following “The Science™.” At every turn, when criticized or questioned, they would default back to an appeal to authority; that the consensus in the scientific community unequivocally believed that the evidence showed that lockdowns, mandates, travel restrictions, and other NPIs were based on the best available information.
After initially determining that the UK should follow Sweden’s example and incorporate a more hands-off approach that relied on protecting the elderly while allowing immunity to build up amongst the younger, healthy populations, Boris Johnson panicked, at the behest of Neil Ferguson, and terrified expert groups. Tossing out decades of planning out of fear, while claiming publicly to be following science.
Instead, a systemic, detailed review of the evidence base relied on by those same experts has now concluded that there never was any high-quality information suggesting that pandemic policies were justifiable. Only wishful thinking from an incompetent, arrogant, malicious “expert” community, and unthinking, unblinking compliance from terrified politicians using restrictions and mandates without care or concern for adverse effects.
While this new report wasn’t specifically designed to determine how effective NPIs were in reducing transmission, it’s clear and obvious conclusions give away that answer too.
If it were easy to prove that COVID policies and mandates had a positive impact on the spread of the virus, there would be dozens of high-quality studies showing a benefit. And those high-quality studies would be covered in this report, with a strong recommendation to reinstate such mandates in future pandemics.
Instead, there’s nothing.
Just exhortations to do better next time, to follow the actual high-quality evidence and not guesswork.
Based on how little accountability there’s been for the “experts” and politicians who lied about “The Science™,” there’s little doubt that when presented with the next opportunity they’ll be sure to handle it in exactly the same way.
Initially, in March 2020, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted HCQ, a drug widely used against malaria and arthritis, an emergency use authorization (EUA) for treating COVID-19.
However, on May 22, 2020, the Lancet medical journal published a now-retracted study saying that HCQ brought about a much higher risk of death and heart problems in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, citing data from nearly 100,000 patients in over 600 hospitals. The authors noted the mortality rate of the total surveyed population was 11.1 percent, while the death rate was 16 percent and higher for the groups given various HCQ treatments—nearly double that of the control group, which was not given HCQ treatment.
The study preceded a series of decisions by health authorities. In three days, the World Health Organization (WHO) suspended a clinical trial of HCQ for COVID-19. During the same week, France also banned its use on COVID-19 patients, revoking an emergency authorization of HCQ for COVID-19 issued two weeks earlier.
On June 15, 2020, the FDA revoked the EUA of HCQ, citing cardiac adverse events and other side effects. Six months later, the FDA approved EUAs for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, emergency authorizations contingent on “no adequate, approved, and available alternatives,” according to the FDA announcement.
“Chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine was prescribed 1 billion times in the year of 2006. So it means that if 10 percent of the people died with this, that would have made 100 million people die of heart attack, which is stupid,” Dr. Raoult told The Epoch Times. HCQ is a newer and improved version of chloroquine.
He said he and other experts wrote to the Lancet, saying the study’s findings were impossible. A few months later, the journal retracted the paper. When retracting the article on June 4, 2020, the authors said they could “no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” They also apologized for causing “any embarrassment or inconvenience” to the journal and its readers.
A day before the retraction of the paper, the WHO announced it was resuming the clinical trial of HCQ on COVID-19. On June 20, 2020, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) halted its clinical trial, citing no harm and no benefit of HCQ on COVID-19 patients. A month later, the WHO also discontinued its HCQ treatment arm for COVID-19 for similar reasons. France’s ban on using HCQ for COVID-19 patients has not been lifted.
Yet Dr. Raoult persisted in treating COVID-19 patients with HCQ and azithromycin, an antibiotic. On April 4, 2023, he published preliminary results of treating over 30,000 patients between March 2020 and December 2021 at the institute he led until August 2022, the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection (IHU). He said the fatality rate of those treated with HCQ was at 7 percent, “half of the fatality rate of the deaths of any series of hospitalized patients [who] needed oxygen.” “So it’s very efficient,” he added.
In May, French medical bodies called for sanctions against Dr. Raoult for “the largest ‘unauthorised’ clinical trial ever seen.” Dr. Raoult responded, “There’s no trial, only the therapeutical choice by the doctors.”
Over the years, HCQ has remained a contentious topic. Because he stood by his statement of HCQ’s effectiveness on COVID-19, Dr. Raoult, an accomplished scientist who received one of the highest honors in France—the prestigious Grand Prix Inserm—in 2010, has been labeled an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist.
In response, he has maintained that he is not against vaccines, but to him, the equation of risks and benefits doesn’t hold for COVID-19 patients under 50 with low risk, especially children, to elect to take the injections.
He spoke to The Epoch Times while promoting his autobiography at a conference in Saint-Hyacinthe, a small city east of Montreal. The autobiography was published in France in April and in Canada in October. “Being a doctor and courageous runs in my family,” he said.
His father was a military doctor, and his great-grandfather an infectious disease doctor. He was born in French Dakar, today’s Senegal in West Africa, while his father was posted there working on malnutrition. His grandmother ran a resistance network against the Nazis and survived from Ravensbrück, a women’s concentration camp in northern Germany, 50 miles north of Berlin.
“I don’t want to be ashamed to be less courageous. She was deported to Ravensbrück, my God,” he said. “It’s in my family. Sometimes you need to disobey because you think it’s not good to obey some things incompatible with your moral sense.”
To him, countering the mainstream recommendation that HCQ was dangerous for COVID-19 patients was just an outcome of doing his job. “I don’t care about what the others say. I’m just talking about what I’m seeing. It’s not a Christian opinion; I don’t get any opinion.”
He said he was encouraged by a recent U.S. appeals court decision allowing a lawsuit from three doctors against the FDA to proceed. On Sept. 1, a panel of three judges on the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeal in New Orleans revived the case, which alleges the FDA overstepping its authority by running a campaign against ivermectin’s effectiveness in treating COVID-19 patients.
“It was very interesting because I hope it will happen sometime in France—the doctor is in charge of treating the patient. This is his role and his duty. So you can have recommendation information from the government or from the agency, but it cannot replace the responsibility of the doctor who prescribes the treatment,” Dr. Raoult said.
He added that patients should hold the doctor accountable if he didn’t do his job. “But it’s not an agency that should determine what the doctor [should] do.”
The maverick scientist, now 71, said he wasn’t aware of any complaints from the 30,000 COVID-19 patients treated at IHU under his leadership. “This means that the people who have never seen the patient in the Ministry of Health don’t know better than we who treated 30,000 people. And I’ve been practicing medicine for 42 years, so I know what I’m doing.”
“Self-esteem is more important than the esteem of others,” he said about one of the themes of his autobiography. “I need to be agreed with myself. This is critical.”
damage on your immune system, subverting it all, causing harms, they made you lock down that harmed you, closed schools that killed kids, damaged businesses; took your freedoms, liberty, for NOTHING!
what are you going to do about it? who will you hold to account? will you at the ballot box and courts? how far will you go, how long? who? anyone in the 33 Horsemen of the COVID Apocalypse you feel should be jailed? all of COVID was for naught, it was a fraud lie and they did this to you, from people in Trump administration to those in Biden administration…very sick evil people in both that did this…the greatest lie ever in history on the American people, convincing you that there was a pandemic when there was none, that you were at risk when you were not, that you needed masks when you did not and the masks could not and never worked for this respiratory pathogen, that you must be mass tested when it was not needed, that you needed no vaccine passport, that you needed no vaccine mandate as the vaccine was non-neutralizing and did not sterilize the virus (did not stop infection or transmission), that there was a PCR test that was not a test and that was over-cycled and was false positive, that you needed to be mass quarantined when you did not, that there was no treatemnt when there was, that there was asymptomatic transmission when there was not, that there were lockdown lunatics about us, COVID Taliban, mandarins, branch COVIDIANS who IMO were pure evil as they worked to pummel you into submission doing the government’s bidding, and with the 2 greatest public health disasters ever, the lockdowns and the vaccine. Ever.
That is the legacy of what they did and now we must punish them! Today, no one wants them, no one wants the fraud vaccine, no one. No booster, nothing. The irony. Yet you are left with it in you and at risk. Poison pills…long-term implications that are booked and as sure as the sun will shine for you. You did not listen to us and we implored you!
We declare next Friday, ‘The Friday of the Al-Aqsa Flood,’ as a day of general mobilization in our Arab and Islamic world and among the free people of the world.
The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reported Hamas as saying:
We declare next Friday, ‘The Friday of the Al-Aqsa Flood,’ as a day of general mobilization in our Arab and Islamic world and among the free people of the world. It is a day to rally support, offer aid, and participate actively. It is a day to expose the crimes of the occupation, isolate it, and foil all its aggressive schemes. It is a day to demonstrate our love for Palestine, Jerusalem, and Al-Aqsa. It is a day for sacrifice, heroism, and dedication, and to earn the honor of defending the first Qibla of Muslims, the third holiest mosque, and the ascension of the trusted Messenger.
…
We call upon the free people of the world to mobilize in solidarity with our Palestinian people and in support of their just cause and legitimate rights to freedom, independence, return, and self-determination.
Hamas also called on Palestinians within the West Bank (known to Israelis as Judea and Samaria) to rise up against Israeli soldiers, and called on Arab citizens of Israel (“Our people within the occupied territories of 1948”) to revolt against the state.’
this; Reporters at Germany’s largest newsweekly, Die Zeit, have suddenly realised that nobody cares about the Covid vaccines anymore. Their whole jabbing circus is over
Reporters at Germany’s largest newsweekly, Die Zeit, have suddenly realised that nobody cares about the Covid vaccines anymore. Their whole jabbing circus is over, there are no longer any queues for the latest virus juice, and they find all of this deeply puzzling and disappointing. To come to terms with this unanticipated reversal in the fortunes of their favourite pharmaceutical product, they’ve penned…
will now witness something that your mind will not understand, nor even mine, a crushing response & it did not need happen! But Israel must respond! It is time there is a reformation of radical islam,
from inside the radical mosques that preach hate, not all, but some preach hate and radicalize good muslim young men, taught to hate the non-muslim, the Jew, no understanding, no middle ground, just hate, kill, kill, kill the infidel, thats all they are taught, kill, convert the non-believer or kill them…christianity, all religions have gone through reformations, all had their issues and growth and still work to be done, but it is time islam did same, to get the radical aspects out…I know many good islamic followers, many good muslims, good people…like me, like you…yet it is time they stood up and denounced what happened here to Israel, the leaders of the mosques, leaders of islam must stand up and denounce and work to help stamp this out…we have people living on the 21st century who think in their minds like the 6th century AD…this is the problem…they cannot settle issues via good governance structures or discussion and this is wrong…we must always be willing to have serious difficult conversations ongoing as long as it take but we must never use violence to achieve our aims…we must stop this hate of Jewish people, it must end, these attacks, we must also stop hate of arab too…we must find a way to co-exist and resolve the most difficult matters….peacefully…
I want peace for all yet how does Israel respond here? Israel will not sit down until it responds and in some manner you cannot disagree…what was done here is barbaric as reported…I just came off the phone with a senior Jewish person who informed his family is unaccounted for…how is that right? so much pain and suffering…Hamas must release all those being help captive…
the mosque must stop radicalizing, it must work harder to teach the young males proper good governance behavior…stop the hate…we have to mainstream all…
we must find a way for Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus to live peacefully…together…
EVOL NEWS WHO Demands Meat Consumption Ban to ‘Prevent Next Pandemic’READ MORE…LATEST NEWS:Delta Force and SEAL Team Six readied to help Israel rescue hostagesRead more…UN: Public Must Live in ‘Mud and Straw’ Huts to Comply with ‘Agenda 2030’Read more…Kari Lake kicks off her Arizona Senate bid with an endorsement from TrumpRead more…NYC parents enraged over Met lobby exhibit loaded with F word,…Read more…Daniel Penny Protected Subway Riders Who Feared for Lives over Jordan Neely’s Threats & ‘Satanic’ Behavior, Court Docs ShowRead more…Huge Win for Election Integrity: North Carolina Republicans Override Democratic Governor’s VetoRead more…The Next Speaker Must Deliver on Jan 6 PromisesRead more…Washington Post Announces It’s Slashing a Significant Number of JobsRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Painfully Hard And Painfully Easy Analysis
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 01:05 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Painfully hard and painfully easy analysis
Some analysis is painfully hard. Some analysis is easy, but looking at related facts is painful.
Before the Iraq War in 2003 it was easy to predict Saddam didn’t have WMD. You just needed to see if he did, he would display them so the US wouldn’t attack him, like North Korea does.
Before 2008 it was easy to predict a devastating Global Financial Crisis. You just had to read Minsky or Austrian theory, not neoclassical economic nonsense.
Before Brexit and Trump it was easy to predict both populist victories. You just needed to listen to people outside metropolitan bubbles who didn’t read the same nonsense as above.
Before the start of the US-China Trade and Cold War it was easy to predict them. You just needed to use logic, history, ideology,… and listen to Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Before inflation returned, it was easy to see it wouldn’t be “transitory”. You just needed to look at vast fiscal deficits boosting demand into Covid lockdowns and supply chains that didn’t supply. On that note, yesterday’s US headline PPI was hotter than expected at 0.5% m-o-m. Let’s see what US CPI says today, as the latest set of Fed minutes underline “the Fed is not only data-dependent, but also market-dependent,” i.e., if bond yields go up, they don’t need to hike, but if yields go down on the view the Fed won’t hike, then they will ironically have to.
Before the Ukraine War, it was easy to predict it: Russia had put 250,000 troops on the border and said it would assimilate Ukraine into a “New Russia” – all you had to do was believe them.
Before Hamas’s 10/7 attack on Israel, such a tragedy was easy to predict. Not the date; not the shocking intelligence failure; but the deadly intent when given an opportunity.
After being formed in 1987, Hamas spent 30 years openly saying it wanted jihad to wipe out Israel in favour of an Islamic state. In 2017, as Al-Jazeera and Western liberals enthused, it then accepted the formation of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders and said the conflict was not religious. A senior political analyst gushed: “[Hamas leader] Meshaal made it clear that the new Hamas, if you will, is dynamic and open-minded… they will continue to resist occupation by all means necessary. But on the other hand, they will be an open and moderate political group.”
Yes, Hamas seems open to ideas… from ISIS. After all, Meshaal just asked Muslims to show their rage globally this Friday, and to carry out jihad for Al-Aqsa, while testimony now speaks of the rape, torture, then burning alive of young children. Things like that don’t belong in this Daily: but they don’t belong anywhere, ever. I told you easy analysis can be painful.
Here’s more. Hamas states it does not aim to kill civilians(!) but that it differentiates between civilians and “settlers”, who are valid targets. Yet every victim of 10/7 livedinside 1967 Israel, not in the West Bank, and most would have been vociferous opponents of the far-right Israeli government (now expanded to an emergency war one) and for a two-state solution. Are all Israelis “settlers”, which means no recognition of it? If so, how exactly is peace to be achieved? Or is it just that all Israelis are targets, even left-wing dancers at a rave for peace, as long as settlers exist?
Some “open and moderate” groups in the West backing “decolonisation”, which we liked to think stopped at literature, now quibble Hamas didn’t decapitate *all* the 40 dead babies on one kibbutz; say Germany’s Shani Louk isn’t dead, and is being treated in a Gaza hospital; and Hamas didn’t kill anyone at the rave, the Israeli army did via friendly fire. Others who think language is literal violence say appalling violence is social justice, refuse to condemn it, or blame Israel *entirely* for all of it. There are painful historic echoes in that victim blaming.
We are all aware of the appeal of fake news, but add that to ends-justifies-the-means violence, moral relativism, and ‘they made me do it’ thinking, and imagine what this implies for socio-political stability in a West wracked with inequality due to decades of idiotic neoliberal economic policy. Is that painful outcome hard to predict? The scales seem to be falling from some eyes at least, given comments from Jake Tapper, Bill Ackman, Larry Summers, and David Frum, to name just four.
Meanwhile, analysis of the geopolitical fallout from 10/7 is both painfully simple and painfully hard.
The simple part is that this war is going to get much worse, fast. Israel is now blockading Gaza of fuel, food, and water, and vowing to destroy every Hamas member globally. Last night saw a false alarm of Hezbollah opening a second front, sparking more chaos in northern Israel. False though it was, Israel is already exchanging fire with South Lebanon and with Syrian militias. When the ground war starts, imminently, so will regional escalation. We fleshed out the circles that the war is likely to expand to encompass in ‘From Ukraine War to Middle East War to…’ yesterday.
However, harder to analyze is the US claiming its intelligence now thinks Iran was “surprised” by the Hamas attack, rather than being the puppet master of it, even as the EU’s Von der Leyen was explicit in mentioning Iran in her public comments. Sadly, one has to note US intelligence agencies will say whatever is politically convenient in an election year where it helps the White House to be able to say there is no need to strike Iran even while backing Israel. What that means in terms of deterrent, or lack of it, remains to be seen.
Equally hard to parse is Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman phoning Iranian President Raisi for 45 minutes to pledge joint support for the Palestinians against Israel, mirroring what some other observers are seeing in social media posts across the Gulf. Does this herald a decisive geopolitical shift by Riyadh away from Israel and the West towards the BRICS11, with enormous global implications, or is this just an attempt to ensure Iran does not strike Saudi should the US strike Iran? That is hard to call, but I lean towards the latter for now.
So, another tense day of war looms ahead of an even tenser Friday. That analysis is easy. And painful.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
India’ diesel exports soar to record highs to Europe
(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)
India’s Diesel Exports To Europe Soar To Record High
India’s diesel exports loading for Europe hit a record high in September amid open arbitrage for westbound shipments, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing tanker-tracking data and analysts.
Last month, diesel cargoes loading from India and bound for Europe averaged between 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 303,000 bpd – or roughly half of all Indian diesel shipments in September, according to vessel-tracking data by LSEG, Vortexa, and Kpler cited by Reuters.
At the same time, Indian diesel shipments eastwards to Singapore slumped in September.
The east-west arbitrage on diesel futures in Europe and in Asia jumped last month, which incentivized traders to ship more of the India-produced fuel to Europe, analysts told Reuters.
But the differentials have narrowed in the past week, which means that India’s diesel shipments to Europe are unlikely to repeat in October the highs from September, they added.
The high Indian exports of diesel to Europe last month could help Europe stock on fuel supplies ahead of the winter, on one hand, and potentially ease the downward pressure on refining margins in Asia, on the other hand, according to the traders and analysts who have spoken to Reuters.
The higher shipments in September may have also been the result of the temporary Russian ban on diesel exports to most markets, including Turkey, Serena Huang, Vortexa’s head of APAC analysis, told Reuters.
At the end of last week, Russia lifted the ban on most of its diesel exports, two weeks after announcing export restrictions on diesel and gasoline to curb soaring domestic prices.
The ban on diesel and gasoline exports, enforced on September 21, affected Russia’s diesel exports which have been diverted away from the EU after the embargo kicked in in February. Russia is now shipping diesel to Turkey, the Middle East, North and West Africa, and Brazil in South America.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0617 DOWN 0.0007
USA/ YEN 149.16 UP .126 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2304 DOWN 0.0011
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3590 DOWN .0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 28.95 PTS OR .94%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 345.11 PTS OR 1.93%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.08% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 345.11 PTS OR 1.93%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.95 PTS OR .94%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 558.15 PTS OR 1.75%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1883.80
silver:$22.18
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105,48 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …73028
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3094)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.75 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.754…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.662% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.796 UP 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.081 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 26.58 POINTS or 0.35%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 30.74 PTS OR 0.20%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 28.08 PTS OR 0.39%
Spain IBEX DOWN 28.90 PTS OR 0.31%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 78,38 PTS OR 0.28%
WTI Oil price 84.17 12: EST
Brent Oil: 86.58 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.20; ROUBLE UP 2 AND 73//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.786 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.467 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0532 DOWN 0.0092 OR 92 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2175 DOWN .01403 or 140 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4695% UP 11 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .752%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.80 UP 0.764 //YEN DOWN 76 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3689 UP .0095 CDN dollar DOWN 95 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.40
Brent OIL: 86.34
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS pts to 4.699%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS PTS to 4.854%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 5.067 %
USA dollar index: 106.34 UP 77 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.75 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.43 UP 2 AND 77/100 roubles
GOLD 1869.20
SILVER: 21.80
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 173.73 PTS OR 0.51%
NASDAQ DOWN 57.02 PTS OR 0.34%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.82 UP .73 PTS (4.54)%
GLD: $173.26 DOWN 0.53 OR 0.30%
SLV/ $19.96 DOWN 0.22 OR 1.09%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Absymal Auction & Inflation Angst Slam Stocks & Bonds Lower; Dollar Soars
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Despite upside surprises in PPI and CPI these past two sessions, equities initially refused to meaningfully sell-off with S&P extending gains off the payrolls lows, heading towards its 4450 Call Wall (as SpotGamma notes, the reason for stalling to the upside is that gamma builds sharply up into the 4,450 area and 4,500 is where they see max upside ahead of the 10/20 OpEx)…
BUT… and it’s a big BUTT.
Small Caps had been suffering but it took a seriously ugly 30Y auction (after yesterday’s ugly 10Y auction) to spark selling pressure across the rest of the majors… (Small caps were the worst performers by a big margin)
…as yields surged (with the long-end lagging)…
Source: Bloomberg
The psychology of rates players heading into today can be summarized as follows (h/t Nomura’s Charlie McElligott):
1. The people in Macro Rates with actual positive performance (have been short and/or in steepeners of late) are increasingly being incentivized to monetize and protect P&L into year-end.
G10 Bond and STIRS (MM on the table) signals remain consensually “Short” outside a handful of securities, as “in-aggregate” across the five time horizons in the model, the vast majority of said legacy “Short” signals remain deeply “in the money” (particularly with an extremely heavy “loading” or weighting in the 12m model, due to the magnitude of the signal strength over that time horizon)
2. Real Money has been struggling mightily with scar-tissue after multiple failed attempts to catch the falling “Duration knife” YTD, and have been tepid and scared to dip toes in again… until the last week, as the magnitude of the rally picked up speed with more “synthetic short Gamma / negative Convexity” acting as “chasing” buyers the more we rally.
But today’s bloodbath of a 30Y auction once again slapped those duration-chasers in the face once again…
Source: Bloomberg
So much for the Israel-Hamas Flight-to-Safety bid.
But we do note that from Friday’s close, yields are still lower…
Source: Bloomberg
With the 2Y yield’s surge stalling at Friday’s close…
Source: Bloomberg
And the yield curve (2s30s) resteepened…
Source: Bloomberg
“Most Shorted” stocks double-puked today…
Source: Bloomberg
Now in the red for the year…
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, the GLP-1 Agonists are killing it…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy and Tech stocks were the only sectors green…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar exploded higher on the day, back to pre-payrolls spike levels. Today was the dollar’s second biggest daily gain since March…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended the day unchanged after a pump’n’dump, holding above the $26,500 level…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum was dumped for the 9th day in the last 12 to its lowest close since March…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended lower on the day, erasing overnight gains…
Oil prices ended unchanged but not before a lot of intraday vol…
Finally, maybe The Fed should watch more and and speak less… just days after The Fed says “the market did the tightening job” for them over a few weeks, the market undoes that job in just a few days…
Source: Bloomberg
Maybe today’s dollar surge and carnage in credit will start the tightening once again?
Additionally, there was $82bn sucked out of The Fed’s reverse repo facility overnight…
…and it’s not going into stocks.
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING/
Stocks Plunge, Yields Soar After Horrific 30Y Auction Tails Most In Two Years
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 01:21 PM
After two ugly, Dealer-heavy auctions, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s coupon issuance with the sale of $20 billion in 30Y paper, and boy was it ugly.
The auction, a reopening of 29-Year 10-month cusip TT5, priced at a high yield of 4.837%, which was almost 50bps higher than just last month’s 30Y auction (which priced at 4.345%). This was not only the highest stop on a 30Y auction since August 2007, but it tailed the When Issued 4.800% by 3.7bps, the 4th consecutive tail and the biggest since Nov 2021 when we saw a record 5.1bps tail, and the 3rd biggest tail on record.
The bid to cover was ugly, coming at 2.349, the lowest since February. and well below the six-auction average of 2.44%.
The internals were also ugly, with Indirects awarded 65.125%, up modestly from last month’s 64.487%. But since Directs dipped down to 16.7%, the lowest since January, Dealers were left holding a whopping 18.2%, the most since Dec 2021. As a reminder, the last time Dealers saw such a build-up in unwanted duration “awards” was right before the Fed’s “NOT QE” started, so look for an “credit event” in the next few days.
Bottom line, this was the ugliest 30Y auction in years, and the market reacted accordingly with yields surging to session highs, 10Y surging almost 20bps from session lows to 4.70%…
… while stocks and risk are both getting nuked.
TUCKER CARLSON..
end
II USA DATA
Headline CPI Hotter Than Expected, Core Remains Above 4.00%
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 08:40 AM
Following August’s bigger than expected jump (driven by surging energy prices and healthcare methodology changes)., September’s CPI was expected to slow (+0.3% MoM) with the YoY pace inching back lower (from 3.7% to 3.6%) after rebounding for two straight months.
However, headline CPI came in modestly hot at +0.4%, with YoY at 3.7% – that is the 3rd monthly rebound in a row.
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, with YoY sliding to +4.1% YoY (as expected)… it still hasnt been below 4.00% since May 2021….
Source: Bloomberg
Food and Commodities contribution to YoY CPI slowed while Services increased…
Goods inflation dipped back to unchanged YoY and Services CPI slowed to +5.7%…
Services stands out on A MoM basis…
Under the hood, gasoline continues to rise and used car prices drop…
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August.
The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
The shelter index increased 0.6 percent in September, after rising 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in September, and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.6 percent over the month.
The lodging away from home index increased 3.7 percent in September, ending a string of 3 consecutive monthly decreases.
Among the other indexes that rose in September was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.3 percent after rising 2.4 percent the preceding month.
The indexes for recreation, personal care, new vehicles, and household furnishings and operations also increased in September.
The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in September, as it did in August.
The index for hospital services increased 1.5 percent over the month, and the index for physicians’ services was unchanged.
The prescription drugs index fell 0.7 percent in September.
The index for used cars and trucks fell 2.5 percent in September, after decreasing 1.2 percent in August.
The apparel index declined 0.8 percent over the month, and the communication index was unchanged.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.1 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index increased 7.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 70% of the total increase in all items less food and energy.
Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+18.9 percent), recreation (+3.9 percent), personal care (+6.1 percent), and new vehicles (+2.5 percent).
Gasoline prices continue to rise…
Shelter costs are slowing, but accounted for the largest part of core CPI…
Rent inflation 7.41%, down from 7.76% in August and the lowest since Sept 2022
Shelter inflation 7.15%, down from 7.27% in August and the lowest since Nov 2022
Bear in mind that while CPI very stale data is rising over 7%, real-time rent indicators are in freefall. Apt List’s Sept rent drop was the biggest on record…
And perhaps most importantly, one silver lining is that The Fed’s new favorite inflation signal – Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter YoY slowed to +3.74% (despite jumping 0.46% MoM). That is the lowest YoY since Dec 2021…
Is this third straight monthly increase in CPI YoY an inflection point? Or is M2 still leading the trend?
Turning from the cost of things to the ability to pay, “real” wages contracted 0.1% YoY (after 3 months positive)…
This is not the soft-landing cruise lower in inflation that the market (and The Fed) was hoping for..
end.
“Nothing Here To Convince Fed To Hike In November”: Wall Street Reacts To Today’s CPI
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 09:59 AM
There are two diverging views following today’s CPI print: the first looks at the hotter headline inflation (which beat expectations on both a MoM and YoY basis) and argues that the Fed will have to hike at least once more. The second counters by pointing to the continued slowdown in supercore inflation…
… and notes that excluding shelter, which as we noted continues to lag real-time data by 12 months at a time when rents are now dropping.
core CPI is up just 0.1%.
For a more granular view of Wall Street’s takes, here is a snapshot of some of the initial hot takes from a variety of traders, economists and strategists.
Capital Economics
Excluding shelter, the core CPI rose by just 0.1% m/m. Overall, there is nothing here that will convince Fed officials to hike rates at the next FOMC meeting, and we continue to expect a more rapid decline in inflation and weaker economic growth to result in rates being cut much more aggressively next year than markets are pricing in.”
CBK:
“US inflation is cooling, but only slowly. From the perspective of the Fed, the figures are probably not worrying enough to trigger another interest rate hike. However, they are not good enough to sound the all-clear either.”
MUFG, George Goncalves
“The Fed is done as its recent commentary suggests a shift from already thinking of moving from how high to how long. The data and recent Fed speak means it looks hard to get 10s to make a run towards 5 again — not impossible — but the double top in rates in September might prove to be the near-term high.”
Richard Bernstein Advisors
“This is one of those reports that will be forgotten almost immediately. It’s always important to keep in mind that the Fed will be responding to inflation, which in turn responds to growth, so it makes more sense to focus on the head of the snake than the tail.”
BMO Capital Markets
“Overall, it was a firm read on realized inflation that reinforces the Fed’s recent messaging regarding the need to keep policy rates in restrictive territory for an extended period of time. The unchanged initial jobless claims print of 209k also reinforces the Goldilocks narrative.”
Bloomberg Economics
“The September CPI report won’t convince Fed officials that interest rates are sufficiently restrictive. There’s some encouraging disinflation progress in the goods sector, but not so much in services, where rents disinflation stalled. The Israel-Hamas conflict has now tipped the balance once again toward upside inflation risks. Our baseline is for the Fed to hold rates steady for the rest of the year, but we see non-negligible risks of another rate hike, something the market is probably underpricing.”
Premier Miton Investors
“The core rate for September came in as expected and this will allow the Fed to proceed carefully from here. Overall, the economy remains robust in the face of tighter policy, supported by the jobs market. Those looking for a soft landing will not be disappointed by this number, but they will not want to see it moving any higher.”
JPM Asset Management
“The report was almost exactly in line with expectations. The economy is on track for a year-over-year headline CPI being 2% or less in the fourth quarter of next year. This is one year ahead of the Fed’s target.“
Charles Schwab UK
“While the lack of a fall in the rate may be disappointing to the Fed, it is likely not surprising following last week’s jobs report, which showed that the labor market remains hot — a factor that can put upward pressure on prices. Whether or not the Fed opts for hikes, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates drop below where they are for as long as the inflation dragon proves difficult to slay.”
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains near year-to-date lows at 209k last week (in line with the revised 209k the prior week). However, the un-adjusted initial claims declined to 175k, the lowest since Oct 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Ohio – yet again!!!! – was the state with the biggest decline in claims while California and Texas saw claims soar…
As a reminder…
And the fraud unwind appears to be done…
Continuing claims rose above the Maginot Line of 1.7mm Americans. (rising to 1.702mm last week), also at year-to-date lows…
Source: Bloomberg
With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.
The WARN Act obliges employers with more than 100 full-time workers to provide written notice to the state and the workers themselves at least 60-90 days ahead of planned plant closings and mass layoffs.
WARN data has begun to surge higher once again and as the chart below shows, it suggests initial claims has a big reality catch up coming soon!
Source: Bloomberg
Which pill do you want to swallow?
“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
FORD:
UAW hits Gord’s largest plant in a escalation in strikes
(zerohedge)
“Surprise Move”: UAW Hits Ford’s Largest Plant In Strike
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Ford Motor Company shares fell in premarket trading after United Auto Workers significantly escalated its strikes against the automaker by targeting its largest and most profitable plant.
On Wednesday evening, 8,700 UAW members walked off the job at the highly profitable SUV and truck plant in Louisville, Kentucky. The plant produces Ford Super Duty pickups, the Ford Expedition, and the Lincoln Navigator SUVs.
UAW wrote in a statement, “The strike was called by UAW President Shawn Fain and Vice President Chuck Browning after Ford refused to make further movement in bargaining.” The union called last night’s announcement a “surprise move” and “marks a new phase in the UAW’s Stand Up Strike.”
The union told Bloomberg in an emailed statement that the strike against the sprawling Kentucky factory was called “after Ford refused to make further movement in bargaining.”
Bloomberg spoke with a Ford official familiar with bargaining and said the union requested a contract offer from the automaker after talks on battery plants and improving retirement security.
Ford proposed a 23% pay hike over the contract’s life last week, which Fain said on Oct. 6 was the best offer so far the union has seen from Ford, General Motors. or Stellantis. The official said Ford failed to go higher in a 1700 ET meeting Wednesday, which triggered Fain to stand up and say: “If there’s not a better offer, then you just lost KTP.”
“We have been crystal clear, and we have waited long enough, but Ford has not gotten the message,” Fain said in a statement.
Fain continued, “It’s time for a fair contract at Ford and the rest of the Big Three. If they can’t understand that after four weeks, the 8,700 workers shutting down this extremely profitable plant will help them understand it.”
Shares of Ford dropped 2.5% in premarket trading in New York.
In a statement to AP News, Ford called the strike expansion “grossly irresponsible” and said it poses “serious consequences for our workforce, suppliers, dealers and commercial customers.”
One of those consequences of the almost monthlong strike has been a “permanent strike” as automakers are forced to lay off thousands of workers.
END
Those 30 who signed the letter are done professionally. Nobody will hire them
(EpochTimes)
Harvard Student Organizations Backtrack On Letter Blaming Israel For Hamas Attack
Several college student organizations in the United States are backtracking on support for an Oct. 8 open letter justifying the actions of Hamas in its war against Israel after intense backlash.
Authored and publicly released by the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee (PSC) through its Instagram page, the letter was co-signed by more than 30 other student organizations and stated they held “the Israeli regime entirely responsible for all unfolding violence.”
Hamas, a recognized terrorist group, launched a surprise Oct. 7 attack on Israel from its stronghold in the Gaza Strip, killing over 1,000 Israelis, wounding more than 2,000, and kidnapping many others.
In a feud stretching back decades that has seen ongoing conflict in the region, the Islamist Hamas has said it does not accept the existence of the state of Israel, and has tried to claim the land of Israel for the state of Palestine through armed resistance. Other Palestinian groups like the secular Fatah differ with Hamas in that they emphasise negotiations.
The PSC’s statement quickly received widespread condemnation from politicians on both sides of the aisle, Harvard faculty, and the public.
The common theme among critics of the letter is that regardless of opinions on Israel and Palestine’s ongoing bad blood and the origins of the conflicts, it does not justify the latest Hamas attacks and the atrocities being committed.
Harvard Student Organizations Try to Distance Themselves From Letter
Following the backlash, at least five organizations that initially signed the letter withdrew their support.
According to the student newspaper of Harvard University, The Harvard Crimson, the Harvard Undergraduate Nepali Student Association, Harvard College Act on a Dream, Amnesty International at Harvard, and the Harvard Islamic Society have all backtracked on their support.
Another organization, the Harvard Undergraduate Ghungroo, released a statement on Instagram to “formally apologize,” for signing the letter and retract their signature.
“We would like to clarify that we stand in solidarity with both Israeli and Palestinian Victims and Families,” the statement said.
The students also “strongly” denounced and condemned the “massacre propagated by the terrorist organization Hamas.”
Israeli soldiers carry the body of a victim of an attack by militants from Gaza at Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in southern Israel, on Oct. 10, 2023. (Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters)
“We truly apologize for the insensitivity of the statement that was released recently.”
The PSC later amended the letter to hide the organizations who signed, citing safety concerns over ongoing harassment of students in those groups, even ones that graduated years ago and are no longer members.
The PSC also cancelled a planned vigil on Oct. 10 that was to mourn “all innocent lives lost.”
“To restate what should be obvious: the PSC staunchly opposes violence against civilians—Palestinian, Israeli, or other,” a member of the PSC said in a follow up post.
In an Oct. 10 statement, Harvard President Claudine Gay also tried to distance the university from the comments of its students.
She condemned the “terrorist atrocities perpetrated by Hamas,” and stressed that “while our students have the right to speak for themselves, no student group—not even 30 student groups—speaks for Harvard University or its leadership.”
“We will all be well served in such a difficult moment by rhetoric that aims to illuminate and not inflame. And I appeal to all of us in this community of learning to keep this in mind as our conversations continue.”
Signed Without Seeing Letter
At least one of the students has apologized in a post on X, the platform formally known as Twitter.
Danielle Mikaelian, a Harvard Student, said in an Oct. 10 X post, “As a board member of a Harvard group that signed the statement on Israel, I think it was egregious and have resigned from my role.”
It’s unclear which organization Ms. Mikaelian was part of, but she has claimed that nobody in their group even read the letter’s contents before signing, and they have since withdrawn their support.
However, when she realized what the letter said, Ms. Mikaelian says she prevented “another student group I remain on the board of from signing on.”
She also stressed the letter justifying the actions of Hamas as “not representative of my values and my heart is with those impacted.”
In an update, Ms. Mikaelian revealed that she knows “firsthand some of my fellow students are in this situation too. I wasn’t the only board member who stepped down today.”
This appeared to be confirmed by former Harvard University President Lawrence H. Summers, who wrote in an Oct. 11 post on X, that while he stands by his previous condemnation of the letter, he asks everyone to “take a deep breath.”
Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard Professor Larry Summers makes remarks during a discussion on low-income developing countries at the annual IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington on April 13, 2016. (Mike Theiler/AFP via Getty Images)
“Many in these groups never saw the statement before it went out. In some cases, those approving did not understand exactly what they were approving. Probably some were naive and foolish,” Mr. Summers said.
“This is not a time where it is constructive to vilify individuals and I am sorry that is happening,” he added.
Sadness and Frustration
Previously, in an Oct. 10 X post, Mr. Summers expressed his sadness and frustration at the statement from the student groups and the lack of a firm show of support for Israel by Harvard’s leadership.
“In nearly 50 years of Harvard affiliation, I have never been as disillusioned and alienated as I am today,” he said at the time.
Harvard President Claudine Gay came out with her own statement later that day, condemning Hamas.
At least 250 faculty members so far have also signed an open letter, condemning the actions of Hamas, but also lamenting the response from Harvard’s administration as falling short.
“As a University aimed at educating future leaders, this could have been a teaching moment and an opportunity to remind our students that beyond our political debates, some acts such as war crimes are simply wrong,” the letter said.
Mr. Summers and Harvard Computer Science professor Boaz Barak, two of the signatories, shared a copy of the letter on X, on Oct. 10, and Oct.11.
“The conflict is complex but ‘the events of this week are not complicated. Sometimes there is such a thing as evil,'” Mr. Barak said in his post quoting the staff letter.
end
HORMEL FOODS
Hormel Foods Crashes The Most Since October 2008
THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 – 12:25 PM
Shares of Hormel Foods plunged the most since the fall of 2008, following concerns among investors about a new labor contract the company ratified with a union on Thursday. Simultaneously, the company held an investor presentation where at least one analyst was spooked by executives’ comments on ‘investments.’
On Thursday morning, the United Food Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW) announced workers at Hormel Foods locations in Minnesota, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Iowa voted to ratify a contract that includes the largest wage increase in the company’s history
Workers are expected to gain an extra $3-$6 an hour, increases in pension and 401k benefits, enhanced healthcare coverage, and a doubling of bereavement leave.
Hormel shares have been sliding since May 2022, down nearly 40% to the $33 handle. Earnings have deteriorated due to a recent acquisition and inflationary pressure, forcing the company to slash full-year earnings guidance.
Shares plunged 9.45% in the early US cash session, the most since October 2008.
Hormel’s investor day began earlier this morning. The company outlined its long-term financial targets.
Bloomberg released a headline, “Hormel Foods Tumbles as Analyst Flags Investment Commentary,” pointing out Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli’s concern about the company’s “year of significant investment” in 2024.
Regardless of the underlying reason, investors are panic-dumping shares and asking questions later.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
Biden Classified Doc Scandal Deepens
WEDNESDAY, OCT 11, 2023 – 07:05 PM
More than a year before White House lawyers claim to have ‘discovered’ classified documents at the Penn Biden Center in November of 2022, evidence has emerged that White House employees ‘inspected’ or ‘took inventory’ of them, while another official removed “a few” boxes containing Biden materials that October, according to the House Oversight Committee.
According to a letter to White House counsel Edward Siskel from Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY), the official timeline of events provided by the Biden team “omitted months of communications, planning, and coordinating.”
Comer says that a Penn Biden Center employee told the committee that on March 18, 2021, senior White House aide Annie Tomasini “[took] inventory of President Biden’s documents and materials” stored at the center, where he established a private office after his vice presidency.
The same witness also said that on Oct. 13, 2022, Oval Office deputy director of operations, Ashley Williams, removed “a few” of Biden’s boxes.
The White House has previously claimed that all relevant documents were either moved to the National Archives or the DOJ, while Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, said that the documents were discovered on November 2, 2022 – a total lie.
The committee, which has conducted three witness interviews, says on five occasions, White House employees, including former White House Counsel Dana Remus, and the president’s former assistant Kathy Chung, a current Department of Defense employee, went to the Penn Biden Center to take inventory, pack up or remove materials. These visits occurred between March 2021 and mid-October 2022. –CBS News
“There is no reasonable explanation as to why this many White House employees and lawyers were so concerned with retrieving boxes they believed only contained personal documents and materials,” said Comer in his letter.
The letter requests transcribed interviews with Remus, Williams, Tomasini, Anthony Bernal, a top adviser to the first lady, and Katie Reilly, a West Wing aide, according to CBS News.
It is also asking for documentation and communication related to the documents. The committee has already interviewed Chung, who was then-Vice President Biden’s assistant.
Democrats, of course, have resorted to whataboutism…
“Former President Trump’s willful retention of hundreds of highly classified documents, his defiance of court-ordered subpoenas, his reported disclosure of our country’s most sensitive national security information, and false statements to law enforcement should worry the Chair of a congressional committee with jurisdiction over government records,” said a spokesman for Democrats on the House Oversight Committee. “Instead Chairman Comer is using the Committee to focus on President Biden whose complete cooperation with the Special Counsel’s investigation stands in stark contrast, including voluntarily participating in a two-day interview with the Special Counsel, and opening the doors to his Penn Biden Center office and private residence to investigators.”
As Jonathan Turley noted earlier, the ‘ultimate punchline’ here could be that Special Counsel Robert Hurmay be in a sticky situation if he actually finds evidence of a crime.
On its face, the President claims that he had no knowledge of these documents appears dubious at best.
Some classified material reportedly goes back to Biden’s time as a senator — material that he would have had to remove from a sensitive compartmented information facility or secure room on Capitol Hill.
More importantly, the documents from the Obama Administration were removed when Biden left as vice president.
Why were they divided and some documents were found in his garage and possibly his library?
If Hur found fingerprints that contradict Biden’s statements, he could face not just some of the same charges brought against Trump but also possible false statement or obstruction charges.
Notably, Biden used counsel to conduct searches and (as in the Trump case) additional classified materials were found after the Biden team said that they had finished their searches.
There are serious questions over whether, in allowing uncleared counsel to search through these documents, evidence may have been lost in how they were stored or appeared in locations like the garage.
Hur can bring charges against third parties, who would not be barred from indictment under the DOJ policy.
But what does Hur then do if he has evidence against the President himself?
end
The USA government will be hurt by this as it differs from the USA narrative
(Bitcoin Magazine)
Someone Is Inscribing All Of WikiLeaks’ Infamous Afghan War Logs On Bitcoin
What’s started with a mysterious inscription on October 7 may end up turning into the latest global protest in support of journalist and activist Julian Assange.
As revealed by Bitcoin Magazine, an unknown “Project Spartacus” has formed in an attempt to immortalize on bitcoin the classified information that the U.S. government has long alleged Julian Assange illegally provided to journalists in the infamous Afghan War Diary.
Following the inscription, an anonymous individual has contacted Bitcoin Magazine claiming responsibility for the project, which aims to inscribe the tens of thousands of logs from the Afghan War published by Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks in July 2010 into the bitcoin blockchain.
These logs created a big upheaval in U.S. media at time they were published, and elicited strong reactions from the country’s government. Notably, the content of the logs not only differed from what had been presented in mainstream media but also offered troubling insights into what actually happened in Afghanistan. At times, the logs raised questions about the conduct of some U.S. military operations.
The publication of the war logs, which was coordinated with The Guardian, The New York Times, and others, caused a spur inside the government. The first indictment brought against Assange focused on an alleged conspiracy between him and Chelsea Manning to crack an account on a computer in her military base. Per the charges, the “primary purpose of the conspiracy was to facilitate Manning’s acquisition and transmission of classified information.”
However, as reported by The Intercept, it later became clear that the alleged hacking not only didn’t happen, but it also couldn’t have happened. New testimony, reported by investigative news site Shadowproof, also showed that Manning already had authorized access to, and the ability to exfiltrate, all of the documents that she was accused of leaking — without receiving any technical help from WikiLeaks.
In truth, the indictment describes the kinds of activities conducted by many news organizations and journalists every day, including obtaining and publishing true information of public interest, communication between a publisher and a source, and using encryption tools.
In addition to the Afghan War logs, WikiLeaks also published those of the Iraq War. This picture depicts a wounded Iraqi being loaded onto a van during an attack by Apache helicopters that killed a dozen people in Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff on July 12, 2007.
Ho New / Reuters file
It seems this backdrop is the context through which Project Spartacus attempts to take a foothold in the bitcoin ecosystem. The project leverages the Ordinals protocol, a metaprotocol for bitcoin that lets anyone add arbitrary data to the original cryptocurrency’s blokchain. Given the properties of bitcoin and its decentralized network of nodes, once data is added to its blockchain it can never be removed or altered.
Such properties are seemingly great for the use case of combating censorship of information. Under this light, it seems Project Spartacus aims to take a stand towards freedom of information and knowledge, making it impossible for anyone to mess with the data that Assange risked his life to make public. The journalist currently faces potential extradition to the U.S., despite being an Australian citizen and not having committed alleged offenses on U.S. soil. The outcome of the extradition process remains uncertain, and concerns continue to grow regarding his future and whether he will ever regain his freedom.
Project Spartacus’s website provides a public interface through which any person can “inscribe” –– Ordinals jargon for adding data to bitcoin –– a war log. There seem to be no fees associated with this action apart from network fees, a necessary component to any transaction submitted to the bitcoin network. The page also features a “donate” button, which opens up a panel through which users can optionally send bitcoin to Assange’s cause. Donations are said to go towards supporting the following organizations: Freedom of the Press Foundation, The Information Rights Project and Reporters Without Borders.
A huge rectangular button appears on the main page, reading “Publish War Log.” Upon clicking, the process of inscribing a war log is triggered. The user is given the option to choose how many logs to inscribe, with a maximum of 300 war logs per transaction. The user can then select the transaction fee, based on which a total amount for payment is calculated. Upon hitting “continue,” the user then is presumably redirected for payment.
BITCOIN: MORE THAN MONEY?
Commonly seen as a monetary network, bitcoin can also serve as a decentralized and unstoppable publishing technology thanks to the Ordinals protocol. Created last year by bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor, Ordinals aims to make it easy for anyone to add data to bitcoin –– be it text, image, video, HTML or Markdown.
The development saw a parabolic surge in activity within a short few months. The amount of inscriptions added to bitcoin in the first 200 days following the launch of Ordinals was greater than the number of Ethereum NFTs created in the same 200-day period after nonfungible tokens went live on ETH.
This rise in popularity caused a big fee spike on the bitcoin blockchain, leading some users to complain about the perceived “uselessness” of adding arbitrary data to what should arguably be a monetary network. Since bitcoin is ruled by rules, not rulers, and Ordinals transactions abide by the protocol’s rules, the activity was able to continue and thrive for months, leading to a plethora of applications and new developments being built on the original cryptocurrency.
Project Spartacus takes a spin on Ordinals’ popular use case of doing NFTs on the mother chain to seemingly focus on complete data finality on a decentralized chain of information, which is run by tens of thousands of nodes in hundreds of different jurisdictions around the world.
In this sense, Ordinals may very well be the ultimate publishing tool that many in the world have been looking for to fight information censorship and tampering.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report June 25, 2018 Issue 5784
Independent View of the News
US September PPI jumped .5% m/m & 2.2% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 1.6% y/y were consensus. Core PPI grew the expected 0.2% m/m but increased 2.7% y/y with 2.3% expected. Gasoline increased 5.4% y/y; Food +0.9% m/m, Energy +3.3% m/m. This is the third consecutive increase in PPI. Yet Bostic et al think the Fed should end its rate hike cycle!
Stocks and bonds ignored the ugly US September PPI and rallied during early NYSE trading. A big impetus for the equity rally this week is Q3 earning season begins today. Traders want to be long for expected good Q3 results. Barring recessions, corporations tend to play the game and report better than expected earnings. So, traders want to be long, especially Fangs, for the next week or so.
Largest US Banks Grapple with Worst Write-Offs in Three Years (Covid Panic) – BBGNet interest income, new capital requirements also in focusInvestment-banking revenue expected to drop on M&A slumpThe biggest banks are poised to write off more bad loans than they have since the early days of the pandemic… JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, which report third-quarter results Friday, will join Bank of America – which comes Tuesday – in posting roughly $5.3 billion in combined third-quarter net charge-offs, the highest for the group since the second quarter of 2020… The figure is more than twice as high a year earlier… Bank portfolios will probably slow an increase in unrealized losses…
U.S. corporate bankruptcies accelerate in third quarter as 2023 rivals 2020 as worst year in more than a decade – S&P Global… recorded 62 bankruptcy filings in September, bringing the total for the third quarter to 182, up from 157 during the second quarter… the total for 2023 so far to 516…518 bankruptcy filings were recorded through the end of the third quarter in 2020… https://t.co/6Zm3zOu0lB
@cejaykim: Real house prices vs real disposable income has widened at a dramatic rate… This is unsustainable as private debt can’t rise forever (debt capacity will be reached) https://t.co/nDDRx7d9RY
Fed Gov. Waller: Hard to Believe Deficit at 6% of GDP is Sustainable – BBG 10:36 ET Fed Gov. Waller: Fed Is in a Position to ‘Watch and See’ on Rates – BBG 10:40 ET Fed Gov. Waller: The Fiscal Situation Just Isn’t Sustainable – BBG 10:57 ET
Bonds and gold rallied on escalating violence in the Middle East. Inexplicably, oil and gasoline declined.
Hamas Armed Wing Says It Shelled Haifa with R160 Rocket – BBG
@ChuckCallesto: Iran issues Stark Warning to Israel and the United States… “Any foolish ISRAELI ACTION against Iran will be met with a DEVASTATING response.” Iran TV: ‘American official have been threatening Iran as well. “I think the American’s know quite well they have already bitten off more than they can chew…” “In Ukraine, in East Asia with China.” “They are not the powers they were 30-40 years ago.” “If the United States does something foolish, they will be expelled from the region.” “The United States is VERY VULNERABLE…”https://twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1711888184395628906
ESZs traded mostly positive but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke down modestly after the 2 ET Chinese close. ESZs rallied from 4388.00 at 2:24 ET to 4400.00 at 3:48 ET. The European dump dropped ESZs to 4390.40 at 4:26 ET. ESZs rallied to 4408.75 at 7:32 ET. The ugly PPI dropped ESZs to 4394.50 at 8:38 ET, two minutes before the official PPI release! Where is the SEC?
The pump & dump for the NYSE opening then commenced. ESZs hit a daily high of 4410.50 at 9:31 ET. The US dump commenced early; ESZs slid to 4390.50 by 10:48 ET. After a sharp rebound to 4404.25 at 11:02 ET, ESZs slid to 4388.00 at 11:44 ET. Undoubtedly selling for the European close was a factor. After a rally attempt, ESZs sank to new lows on reports that Hezbollah drones attacked Israel.
@AvivaKlompas: Incoming drone alertsare sounding across northern Israel in every town and city. Early reports suggest dozens of drones were launched from Lebanon at Israel. (Iran-made drones?)
@sentdefender: Aircraft Intrusions are still being detected across Northern Israel as Hezbollah appears to have joined the War against Israel.
Ex-Senate aide @rich_goldberg: Hezbollah is a terrorist organization controlled by Iran… Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad sit together in Beirut in a joint cell coordinated by Iran. Hezbollah threat much greater. Massive arsenal of precision guided munitions provided by Iran for years… US will need to provide additional ballistic missile defense coverage… Israel may strike Syria, not just Lebanon. We need to stop the fantasy that Iran is not directing traffic. The JCPOA is dead. Lock down all the money and snapback UN sanctions. Every aspect of the Iranian terror infrastructure should be a target. Iran itself as a target should not be off the table.
About 15 minutes after reports of Hezbollah attacks surfaced, this appeared (Not a parody!):
The White House @WhiteHouse 11:59 ET: Happening Now: President Biden delivers remarks announcing new actions to protect consumers from hidden junk fees and put more money back in the pockets of hardworking Americans. https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1712135767923851362
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I continue to call on Congress to pass what my friends in the front row here mostly support — Junk Fee, the Junk Fee Prev— Junk Fee Prevention Act. Hard to say. Anyway.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1712139841834520584
@Heroiam_Slava: Israel Defence Forces reports no casualties and no “incoming attacks” in the north. Apparently Hezbollah continues to “probe” us in the north in a limited way. This group is in fact a small army with a trained core. These alerts in the north are nothing more than “battlefield reconnaissance”. They take a shot and watch our reaction.
@IsraelRadar_com: IDF now says there was no infiltration of Israeli airspace from Lebanon. Looks like either error or cyber-attack.
After hitting a daily low of 4377.25 at 13:47 ET, ESZs rallied into the 14:00 ET release of the Sept. 20 FOMC Minutes on the expectation that it would be dovish.
ESZs soared to 4389.25 on the release despite the minutes being a tad hawkish on balance. FOMC Minutes Highlights per Bloomberg HeadlinesAll Agreed Rates Should Stay Restrictive for Some TimeAll Agreed Fed Can ‘Proceed Carefully’Most Continued to See Upside Inflation RisksMajority of Fed Officials Saw One More Rate Increase as AppropriateOfficials Saw Risks as More Two Sided The Fed: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the September FOMC meeting was stronger than the July projection, as consumer and business spending appeared to be more resilient to tight financial conditions than previously expected. The staff assumed that GDP growth for the rest of this year would be damped a bit by the autoworkers’ strike, with these effects unwound by a small boost to GDP growth next year… The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the baseline projection as considerable.Risks around the inflation forecast were seen as skewed to the upside, given the possibility that inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected or that further adverse shocks to supply conditions might occur… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230920.htm
After the initial jump on the release of the FOMC Minutes, ESZs stalled. They jumped higher after 14:10 ET, hitting 4398.75 at 14:25 ET. ESZs chopped sideways until they inched to a minor new high at 15:02 ET. ESZs went inert until the late rally began at 15:30 ET. ESZs hit a new high of 4411.50 at 15:59 ET.
Egypt warned Israel three days before Hamas attack: senior US lawmaker The chairman of the powerful US House Foreign Affairs Committee said Wednesday. “We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” Republican Michael McCaul told reporters following an intelligence briefing for lawmakers on the crisis. https://insiderpaper.com/egypt-warned-israel-three-days-before-hamas-attack-senior-us-lawmaker/
Democratic senators break with Biden and call to refreeze $6 billion Iranian ‘ransom’ funds after horrific Hamas terror attack on Israel https://trib.al/GfxJHBm
@GLNoronha: @BretBaier presses NSC’s John Kirby on why they haven’t refrozen the $6B ransom payment and why they let Iran export $30 billion in oil last year- up from $6.6B in 2020. Kirby: “Supply and demand have to be balanced.”https://twitter.com/GLNoronha/status/1711794528351408175
The House Oversight Committee announced that it is launching an investigation into Team Biden’s efforts to conceal details about its ongoing secret nuclear negotiations with Iran from Congress.
CNN’s Alex Marquardt @MarquardtA 7:39 ET: Biden administration officials do not believe at this point that Hezbollah is likely to join Hamas’ war in force against Israel, and officials think the warnings are having an impact. https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/politics/us-allies-warn-hezbollah/index.html
Team Biden is already trying to excuse Iran from the Hamas attacks. They have leaked to the media that intel shows Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack. There is no clarification as to if Iran was surprised that Hamas attacked or if Iran was surprised by the success of the attack. Yes, Virginia, this is the same intel operation that didn’t see the Hamas attacks or the Chinese spy balloons coming.
@AndrewDesiderio: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) after classified briefing says the admin told lawmakers that they don’t yet have “clarity” on Iran’s role in the Hamas attacks on Israel, but added: “Anybody with any intelligence knows Iran is behind this.” Rep. Bacon: “The administration’s in denial. They’re not sure of Iran’s role. BS. Anybody with a brain knows that Iran is behind this.”
Iran scholar @AlirezaNader: What strange reasoning from John Kirby of the Biden administration. So HAMAS couldn’t have massacred Israelis without the support of the Islamic Republic but he claims there’s no direct evidence of the IRI being behind the massacre. You know why? Because the Biden admin doesn’t want to admit it made a colossal error in easing sanctions on & unfreezing billions of $$$ for the regime.
Biden can’t even mention the ultimate perpetrator of this attack: Marc Thiessen Bush 43 speechwriter Marc Thiessen: Hamas is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Iranian regime. Iran arms them. Iran funds them. Iran trains them. They could not carry out an attack like this without the arms, training and support of the Iranian regime, putting aside any question of the coordination of this specific attack… https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-cant-even-mention-ultimate-perpetrator-attack
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Someone in the Biden administration decided that as their very first response to the genocidal violence unleashed against Israel, they should urge Israel to stand down. I quickly tweeted back that every person involved in drafting the tweet needed to be expelled from the US government. The tweet was then deleted. That doesn’t change the fact that every person involved in drafting it needs to be expelled from the US government.
Positive aspects of previous session. Stock rally on buying for Q3 earnings results led by Fangs, of course Gasoline and oil declined sharply – is someone managing energy markets?
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined and bonds soared on escalating violence in the Middle East
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the US ‘manage’ markets, particularly energy, due to the Middle East War?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4366.98 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4378.64; 4345.34
Republicans nominated Rep. Steve Scalise to be Speaker of the House. A full House vote is pending.
The IRS demands that Microsoft pay $28.9B in back taxes (2004-2013) plus interest and penalties.
Biden said the US will send more F-18s and F-35s to the area; and the US confirms it will deploy a second aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, to be an ‘available asset
Saudi Arabia will exert international and regional efforts to stop escalation in Israel-Hamas war. Qatar said it would cut off gas supplies to the world if the war escalates.
Today – Barring horrid news, traders will play for the earnings season rally. Middle East war, hawkish FOMC Minutes, and ugly PPI did not dissuade traders from playing trading schemes and patterns. Obviously, except to the Fed, there is too much liquidity in the system. Speculation will continue.
ESZs are +9.25 on buying for the earnings rally; USZs are +17/32 on the Middle East at 20:35 ET.
Expected earnings: DPZ 3.26, FAST .50, WBA .69, DAL 1.95
Expected economic data: Sept CPI 0.3% m/m & 3.6% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m& 4.1% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 210k, Continuing Claims 1.676m; Sept Budget -$141.5B; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 10:00 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres (most ubiquitous Fed official) Bostic 13:00 ET, Boston Fed Pres Collins 16:00 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4411; 100-day MA: 4399; 150-day MA: 4289; 200-day MA: 4216 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,405; 100-day MA: 34,278; 150-day MA: 33,908; 200-day MA: 33,813 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4476.15 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4252.87 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4338.55 triggers a sell signal
@sentdefender: Consultations are still ongoing between the United States, Israel, and Egypt on establishing a Humanitarian Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt that will allow the Palestinian Population to Safely Evacuate from the Region; the World Health Organization has also stated that they would assist in Humanitarian Operations along the Egyptian-Gaza Border if need be.
@JoeTruzman: Hezbollah issues a statement saying the United States is a ‘full partner’ of Israeli ‘aggression’ on the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah also says that it holds the United States fully responsible for the airstrikes that are killing civilians in Gaza.
@CSWLatAm: This Hamas Commander says this is not about land, not just Palestine. “The entire planet will be under our law; there will be no more Jews or Christian traitors.” Only then, if everyone adopts his law, will there be peace. https://t.co/97sWBcH8yJ
@BrotherRasheed: Khalid Mashal the leader and founding member of Hamas gave a speech today (from Qatar) asking Muslims all around the world to do the following: 1. To show anger, especially next Friday, in Muslim countries and also among Muslim diaspora around the world; he called it “the Friday of Al-Aqsa flood”, he said this will send a message of rage to Zionists and to America. 2. He asked for financial help from all Muslims around the world… 3. He asked political pressure, from Muslim leaders and Muslim nations, to stop Israel’s military invasion of Gaza. 4. The most important thing: He asked all Muslims around the world to carry Jihad by their souls; to fight and be martyrs for Al-Aqsa. He wants Muslims to fight against the Jews, starting with Muslims who live in the countries surrounding Israel: Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt (but also other countries), to go to the borders and try to enter, each by his own means. He said: This is the time for Jihad to be applied on the ground rather than just in theory. He asked the Mujahedeen to go in long caravans to spell their blood on the land of Palestine. These are his final words: Funds are important but today we are asking for your blood and souls [to be sacrificed for Palestine] (You might want to careful on Friday in public settings.)
@nataliegwinters: The surge in train derailments and food processing plant fires makes you wonder if the attack on America – as a result of the invasion on our southern border – has already begun. Example: just last night, a train carrying military vehicles and equipment derailed in Colorado. @BenMFreeman: Reports suggest Palestinians permitted to work in Israel were among those who perpetrated the massacre. The survivors recognised some of whom had worked on the Kibbutz. They were the ones leading the Pogrom.
@SteveGuest: CNN’s Jake Tapper states the obvious: “These last few days have been a real eye-opening period for a lot of people — a lot of Democrats, a lot of progressives — in terms of antisemitism on the left.“https://t.co/bMzd3axC7d
@MrAndyNgo: At least 18 Thai migrant workers were slaughtered by Hamas militants during the terrorist attacks in southern Israel. One graphic video shows a man repeatedly praising Allah as he tries to behead a semi-conscious Asian man with a garden tool…Far-left ideologues, socialists, Palestinian nationalists, BLM, Antifa and Muslim extremists are among those who defend the killings & kidnappings as “decolonization.”https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1711966141281616215
@JMichaelWaller: Unless something unusual happens, the US will not declare Qatar as a state sponsor of terrorism. Too many politicians – from factions loyal to Bush, Clinton, Obama, Biden, and even Trump – have been on the take.
White House misled Congress, American people about Joe Biden’s classified documents, Comer alleges – “President Biden’s timeline was incomplete and misleading,” Comer declared in a statement issued Wednesday afternoon. “It omitted months of communications, planning, and coordinating among multiple White House officials, Ms. [Kathy] Chung, Penn Biden Center employees, and President Biden’s personal attorneys to retrieve the boxes containing classified materials. The timeline also omitted multiple visits from at least five White House employees, including Dana Remus, Anthony Bernal, Ashley Williams, Annie Tomasini, and an unknown staffer. “There is no reasonable explanation as to why this many White House employees and lawyers were so concerned with retrieving boxes they believed only contained personal documents and materials,” Comer added… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/white-house-misled-congress-american-people-about-joe-bidens
Israel Reaps What Jimmy Carter Sowed The story is the Iranian Revolution of 1979, when militant Islam achieved state power in the ancient Persian land. Then, the world watched as a longtime American ally — the shah of Iran and the Pahlavi dynasty — was ousted from power with the tacit acceptance of the Carter administration, which had been critical of the shah (and other American allies) for “human rights” violations. The revolutionary regime backed “students” who seized the U.S. embassy and 52 American hostages for 444 humiliating days, while President Jimmy Carter belatedly responded with a deeply flawed rescue mission that ended in disaster and further humiliation for the United States. Since then, the Islamic regime that has governed Iran, as Michael Ledeen noted in 2008, has been at war with Israel and the United States. Today, Israelis (and Americans in Israel) are reaping what Jimmy Carter sowed… https://spectator.org/israel-reaps-what-jimmy-carter-sowed/?s=02
@ChristinaPushaw: This book was such an eye opener for me; it is infuriating but very well researched and totally worth reading. I knew a little about how NY Times covered up the mass starvation (genocide) of Ukrainians under Stalin, but I had no idea the extent NY Times was complicit in covering up the Holocaust and even promoting Hitler! It is beyond disturbing… The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times’s Misreporting, Distortions and Fabrications Radically Alter History
@ElbridgeColby: The war in the Middle East poses a *far* graver challenge to those who’ve been arguing there were no tradeoffs to supporting Ukraine than to those of us who have been arguing there have been. *Obviously* there are tradeoffs, and now they are even starker China must be our top national priority, but we should be able to support our very close ally Israel in its hour of great need. I’ve been arguing for well over a year that *there are tradeoffs*, *that we are not prepared,* and that we need *national mobilization of our DIB. (Defense Industrial Base( We spent trillions on COVID aid – but not on our defense industrial base. We’ve had years of warning of China’s massive buildup. And the Ukraine War should have really changed things. Yet the changes to our DIB thus far have been largely incremental. Completely inadequate.
@MarinaMedvin: A @Yale professor who proudly identifies as a “radical Muslim” insultingly refers to Jews as “settlers” and says they’re “not civilians” — endorsing the atrocities committed by Islamist Palestinians against Jewish children and civilians. American universities are infested with radical Islamist propagandists. It’s disgusting. https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1712169546314887408
The kids are running the classroom Biden’s White House is hostage to a ferocious cadre of radical children Amazingly, Democrats now find themselves constrained to tread lightly around the feelings of cold-blooded murderers so as to avoid offending their deranged apologists — many of whom represent the future of the party… On Saturday, the State Department scrambled to erase not one, but two statements calling for “all sides to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks.”… It mirrors the predicament of complacent liberals in positions of power across the country, from board rooms to newsrooms. All of them are now at the mercy of their radical young wards as a generation of impassioned maniacs comes of age… Ivy League faculty and fashionable editorial boards, no less than the Democratic Party, have trafficked for decades in the unhinged maunderings of lunatic Marxists as if they were the nectar of purest wisdom. Now they find themselves hemmed in on all sides by fanatical young Bolsheviks who, horror of horrors, were taking them seriously that whole time. If it isn’t the consequences of their own actions… By recklessly indulging the childish arrogance and flattering the confident ignorance of their drastically miseducated base, the American left has created a situation in which the kids really might soon be running the roost. That is what the Biden presidency has revealed. Aren’t you glad the adults are back in charge?https://thespectator.com/topic/kids-running-classroom-democrats-hamas/
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.” — Galileo Galilei
eugyppius: a plague chronicle
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike