OCT 23//HAMAS MAY RELEASE 50 HOSTAGES AND THAT MAY SLOW ISRAEL’S INVASION OF GAZA: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $6.80 TO $1976.20//SILVER WAS DOWN $.33 TO $23.04/PLATINUM WAS UP $ 11.10 TO $900.75 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $3.25 TO $1133.25//GOOD GOLD COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM MATHEW PIEPENBURG AND PETER SCHIFF//UPDATES ON THE ISRAELI-HAMAS-HEZBOLLAH WAR// NEW ISRAELI SHIN BEIT IS NOW FORMED TO ASSASSINATE ALL OF THOSE HAMAS OPERATIVES IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES RESPONSIBLE FOR OCT 7//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS//CHINESE CITIZENS ARE FLEEING THEIR YUAN CURRENCY IN DROVES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 237 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 62 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4 685 C RJ OBRIEN 20 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 49 10 880 H CITIGROUP 361 905 C ADM 10 4
TOTAL: 379 379 MONTH TO DATE: 10,877
JPMorgan stopped 0/379 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 379 NOTICES FOR 37,900 OZ or 1.1788 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,877 contracts for 1,087,700 oz (33.832 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 511 for 2,555,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//WHAT A COMPLETE BUNCH OF CRAP: WHERE ARE EARTH COULD THEY OBTAIN THIS QUANTITY OF GOLD?
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.871 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY SMALL SIZED 161CONTRACTS TO 125,199 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.50 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1104 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1104 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAD A MONSTER 944OI. CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL! WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.50). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2279 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS TO NO AVAIL.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2440 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 40 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.200 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 4.2 MILLION OZ //NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.640 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ/////HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1104CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 944 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 16,962 contracts: OR 84,810 MILLION OZ (1131 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 84.810 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 84.81 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 161 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.50 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2440 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 40 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.200 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.640 MILLION OZ+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2279 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1104 CONTRACTS//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT A HUGE (1104) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4006 CONTRACTS TO 458,870 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 1138 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5144 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $14.50 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 33.962 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 3759 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$14.50 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8098 OI CONTRACTS (25.188 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4012CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 460,008
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8098 CONTRACTS WITH 4006 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4092 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8098CONTRACTS OR25.198TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 3759 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4092 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4006) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9,236 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 33.962 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION BUT HUGE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1860 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 65,225 CONTRACTS OR 6,522,500 OZ OR 202.87 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4348 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 202.87TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 202.87/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.71% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 202.87 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 161 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,199 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A HUGE 2440 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 2440and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2440 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 161 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2440 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2279 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 11.395 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.50 GAIN IN PRICE …..(SOME SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 PTS OR 1.47% //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 259.81 PTS OR 0.83% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.84 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3170 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3205 /Oil DOWN TO 87.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 91,64/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4006CONTRACTS TO 458,870 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.50 ON FRIDAY. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS TRIED TO COVER THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4092 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 4092 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4092 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8098 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4092LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4006 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.50//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 3759 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (33.762) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 33.962 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $14.50) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 9236TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 28.72 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:33,962 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $14.50. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED 1138 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8098 CONTRACTS OR 809,800 OZ OR 25.188 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,877 notices 1,087700 OZ 33.832 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Loomis: 1607.55 OZ 51 kilobars
total withdrawals 1607.55 oz
Adjustments; 1 Brinks
i) Dealer to customer 1009.99 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 421 contracts having LOST 336 contracts. We had 736 contracts filed on Friday, so we gained 400 contracts or an additional 40,000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. We had the commencement of gold speculator short covering last Thursday and this action by the banker longs will continue until the specs have been annihilated
NOV LOST 74 CONTRACTS to stand at 1582
December GAINED 1572 contracts up to 369,510 contracts.
We had 379 contracts filed for today representing 37,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 379 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,877 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (421 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 379 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,091,900 OZ OR 33.962 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,879) x 100 oz + (421) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (379) x 100 oz) which equals 1,091,900oz standing OR 33.962 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 33.962 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,829,317.587 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,977,102.543 (310.329 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,852,215.044 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,026,524(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 249.656 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 23
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,745,167.900 oz
Brinks CNT Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts (85,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
511 Contracts (2,555,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/269.932 million or 49.79%
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Brinks: 810,060.050 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 634,351,000 oz
iii) Out of loomis: 300,756.850 oz
total: 1745,167.900 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.633 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 269.932 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 20 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED
ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 441
DEC. LOST 1103 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 98,132 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 47,664//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 88,645 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 511 x 5,000 oz = 2,555,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (20) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 511 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (20) – number of notices served upon today (3 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.640 million oz + .2 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.2 million oz prior//new totals: 6.840 million oz.
There are 37.633 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 863.24 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.871 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: This Is The Most Obvious Financial Crisis That Nobody Sees Coming
The mainstream continues to insist that the economy is fine. Inflation is beat. A soft landing is in play. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff said we’re in the early stages of a financial crisis. It should be obvious, but very few people see it coming.
Peter emphasized that we are already in the midst of a financial crisis.
Now, this is, of course, the early stages of that financial crisis. It is unfolding before your eyes if you’re awake or smart enough to recognize what you see. But it is going to get a lot worse.”
Peter said that at some point, people are going to recognize that we’re in a financial crisis, but they’re not going to realize why.
They’re all going to be just as blindsided by this financial crisis as they were by the much smaller financial crisis in 2008 that also took them by complete surprise.”
During the 2008 meltdown, the mainstream described it as a “100-year flood” — a “black swan” that nobody could have foreseen.
Which of course was a bunch of BS, because a number of people, myself included, not only saw it in advance, but spent years warning about it.”
Peter said the evolution of this crisis is just as clear.
This is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming. I mean, this isn’t even a black swan. This isn’t even a white swan. This is like a pigeon. They’re everywhere. This is a very common bird that is not coming out of left field. It’s right there. But Wall Street has a big vested interest in ignoring this. And so do a lot of people on Main Street, so does academia, the financial media, the government. Nobody wants to acknowledge this until of course it already happens. Then they have to figure out who the scapegoat is.”
One thing is pretty certain. Nobody will blame the party most responsible – the government.
They never look back and reflect on the government’s role in creating the crisis. No, no, no! They’re too busy pointing fingers at somebody in the private sector and holding out government as the salvation. ‘We just need more government! If we only had more regulations then this wouldn’t have happened.’ No. It happened because we had too many regulations. What we need is free market regulations.”
Government regulations sabotage the free market regulations that actually do work.
We can see the financial system unwinding in the bond market. Long-term bond yields continued to rise last week. Peter called the bond selloff “relentless.” On Friday, the yield on a 30-year Treasury rose above 5.1%. The yield on the 10-year also briefly eclipsed 5%.
The yield curve is basically flat around 5%, but Peter said it isn’t going to stay flat.
It’s going to steepen. I expect long-term interest rates to continue the March upward, and we should put more distance between a 90-day, 6-month bill and a 10 to 30-year Treasury bond, especially the 30-year bond. That one is going to take the biggest hit.”
Peter said as the curve normalizes, the short end could rise toward 6% with the long end pushing into the 7 or 8 percent range – minimum.
The question is will the Federal Reserve allow it?
Will the financial markets, will the banking sector, will the economy, will the government be able to withstand that increase? So far, it seems like, OK, we’re surviving 5%. Although, I don’t really think we are. I think the numbers belly the problems that underlie the economy.”
For instance, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell for the 16th straight month in September, dropping another 0.7%. The Conference Board also revised the August number lower.
That’s pretty rare. You have to go back to 2007-2008, which was the Great Recession — the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. You’ve got to go back there to find a string of negative leading economic indicators that’s longer than the 16 months we’ve got now.”
This indicates that the economy is a lot weaker than the “experts” keep telling us.
If the economy is so strong, how can these ‘leading’ economic indicators be so weak?
Meanwhile, we have record credit card debt along with record credit card interest rates. The “unsinkable” American consumer is drowning in debt. Financial sector stocks are getting beaten up. American Express was down 5.4%. Peter pointed out that these banks and financial companies are just reporting the early stages of problems.
But anybody who was loaning out money during the bubble is going to have a problem getting the money back as the bubble deflates, so, this is just the tip of a big iceberg for American Express, Visa, Mastercard, Discover, all these credit card companies.”
And if consumers can’t borrow — they can’t buy.
There are also continuing signs of stress in the banking sector. Banks continue to tap into the bailout program set up after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. There is also growing concern about pressure in the banking system created by the commercial real estate market.
Things are still simmering under the surface, but it’s only a matter of time before the situation erupts.
In this podcast, Peter also talked about Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club. He said Powell isn’t qualified to be a member.
Last week, a firmer trend in gold continued as markets realized the seriousness of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.
In European trade this morning, gold traded at $1979, up $46 from last Friday’s close and up $160 from the October 6 low. Silver was less responsive at $22.95, up a modest 25 cents from last Friday’s close.
Open interest in gold remains remarkably low, as our next chart shows.
This is possibly the most bullish chart we can show. It illustrates the very low level of speculative and hedging interest in gold, both of which can be expected to increase materially as the conflict in Israel evolves. Central to the problem, of course, is oil. Any attempt by the US and her NATO allies to intervene increases the likelihood of Iran closing off Hormuz at a time when western oil reserves are depleted. And according to StanChart, oil demand now exceeds pre-covid pandemic levels.
Higher oil and distillate prices are also being encouraged by OPEC+, led by Russia, the Saudis, and Iran. The implications for western capital markets and their currencies are that inflation, interest rates, and bond yields will remain higher for longer. And this reality is beginning to drive global bond yields up, with the US 10-year Treasury Note already testing the 5% yield level.
Interestingly, establishment fund managers and speculators now find that higher interest rates and bond yields don’t suppress gold, because the price has been rising at the same time as bond yields. This probably explains the low level of Open Interest on Comex, with speculators being frozen out from taking positions because of this phenomenon. But there is bound to come a time when they re-enter long positions, because of the destabilising effects of higher bond yields and lower asset values on the banking system and government finances.
These conditions are especially pernicious for US Government deficits. The USG will have to fund a widening fiscal deficit at a time when China and Japan are selling their US Treasury holdings, and some $7.6 trillion in Treasuries will have to be refinanced next year before a deficit probably exceeding $3 trillion in the current fiscal year will need to be financed. Embedded in this deficit is a likely debt interest figure of about $1.5 trillion, a 60% increase from the fiscal year just ended.
In short, the US Treasury is ensnared in a debt trap which can only result in foreigners spurning US Treasuries and the dollar itself.
The only reason the dollar hasn’t declined on the foreign exchanges is the lack of an attractive currency alternative.
The euro system is bust with nearly all the national central banks in negative equity and the major commercial banks rated at deep discounts to their book values. Italy is entering its own debt crisis as well, with budget deficits hitting 8% last year and government debt to GDP ratios exceeding 140%. Meanwhile, a seriously bust Bank of Japan is finding it increasingly difficult to suppress bond yields and support the yen.
Problems are global. And gold is the evidence. The chart certainly looks bullish.
END
Debt, Currency Debasement and War – The Timeless Pillars of Failure
Matthew Piepenburg October 22, 2023
Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well…not so great any more.
Debt Destroys Nations
Debt, once it passes the Rubicon from extreme to just plain madness, destroys nations.
Just ask the former Spanish, British or Dutch empires. Or ask the inter-war Germans. Ask the Yugoslavians of the 1990’s or ask a historian of Ancient Rome or a merchant in modern Argentina.
It’s all pretty much the same story, just different a different stage or curtain call.
Like Hemingway’s description of poverty, the process begins slowly at first, and then all at once.
Part of this process involves currency debasement needed to pay down more desperate issuance of IOUs, a process evidenced by rising rather than “transitory” inflation.
Thereafter, comes increased social unrest, and hence increased centralization from the political left or right in the name of “what’s best for us.”
Centralization never works in the long run, but that has never stopped opportunists from trying.
Just look at our central bankers.
In a centralized rather than free market, the very name “central bank” should be a dead give-away as to their real role and profile.
As private central banks have been slowly increasing their hidden power and control over national markets and hence national welfare, the very notion of free price discovery in bonds, and indirectly in stocks, is now all but an extinct financial creature in the neo-feudalism which long ago replaced genuine capitalism.
How the Central Game is Played—From Temporary Prosperity to Permanent Ruin
When central banks like the Fed repress rates and print gobs and gobs of money, bonds are artificially supported, which means their prices go up and their yields are compressed.
When yields are low, rates are low, which means the cost of credit is cheap, allowing otherwise profitless names in the stock markets to borrow money and time for years of temporary prosperity—like a 600% rise in a post-08 S&P…
In short: central bank repressed rates are a profound tailwind for otherwise mediocre risk assets.
But when central banks like the Fed raise rates (ostensibly to “fight inflation”), the opposite effect happens—and things break. I mean really break.
I’ve written and spoken ad nauseum about what has broken, is breaking and will continue to break; furthermore, I’ve written and spoken at length about the quantifiable irony that Powell’s so-called war on inflation will only end in more inflation.
Yep, the ironies just abound in this world of so-called experts, which is little more than an island of misfit toys.
Postponing Pain Only Heightens It
In normal, free-market cycles devoid of central bank “support,” bonds and hence rates rise and fall naturally based on natural demand and natural supply.
Imagine that?
This leads to frequent but healthy moments of what von Mises and Schumpeter described as “constructive destruction”—i.e., a cleaning out of debt-soaked and crappy enterprises in naturally occurring recessions and naturally occurring market drawdowns.
But central banks somehow thought they could outlaw recessions by printing money out of thin air to support bonds and repress yields. You know—solve a debt crisis with more debt. Brilliant…
This was hubris at the highest level, and the stupid just became a habit and even received a fancy name to justify it—Modern Monetary Theory.
Natural Market Forces Are Stronger than Central (Bank) Forces
But the longer central banks postponed pain to win Noble Prizes and ego-lifting acclaim from the un-informed, the greater the natural pain (ticking time bomb) these central planners created as they now slowly realize that the bond market, like an ocean, is more powerful than a band of unelected market stewards.
In fact, a bunch of FOMC officials (Kashkari, Bostic, Waller et al.) are now running around like headless chickens and declaring that higher bond yields may now be more powerful than the Fed Funds Rate.
In other words, after months of hawkish chest-puffing, they are saying that perhaps enough is enough with the “higher for longer” meme…
Central bankers, it seems, are beginning to realize what informed credit market jocks have always known, viz: The bond market is stronger than any central bank.
Price Matters
That is, eventually central bankers lose control of artificial bond pricing.
Which means that eventually the great weight of sinking bonds and hence rising yields and rates becomes more powerful than central bank money printers to keep those bonds artificially “supported.”
I’ve been saying this for years despite “journalists” at the WSJ and Financial Times calling math-based realists like me “kooks.”
But recently even the fine folks at the WSJ or Financial Times (FT) are beginning to worry out loud as UST supplies far outstrip natural demand, causing bond prices to fall and yields and rates to rise fatally higher than central bankers once thought safely under their control.
We’ve warned of this for years—and this grotesque supply and demand mis-match has only risen exponentially in recent months.
America: Running Out of Takers/Suckers for Its Ever-Increasing IOUs?
The trillions in spending forecasted for year-end and into 2024 just don’t have any real money behind it, which means more IOUs will be spitting out of DC with less and less love/demand for the same.
This, of course, has been a real problem hiding in plain site for a long, long time.
As supply outpaces demand for sovereign bonds, their prices sink, their yields rise and hence interest rates—the cost of debt—becomes fatal rather than just painful.
The journalists at the FT, most of whom never sat at a trading desk, however, still have a very hard time imaging the unspeakable—i.e., a total implosion of sovereign bonds, and hence a total implosion of the financial system.
Thinking About the Unthinkable
They still see the UST as too big to fail—or to use their own words, any failure of this sacred US Sovereign bond is “unthinkable.”
Well…think again.
But at least the main-stream-financial pundits are crying that any real threat to Uncle Sam’s IOUs “would force the state to act.”
For once, I actually agree with these “journalists.”
But let’s clarify what “forcing the state to act” really means—i.e., in simple speak.
When There’s No Good Acts Left to Take
In short, this means the “state” would have to “act” by saving the bond market in particular and the global financial system in general via trillions and trillions of printed dollars to purchase otherwise unloved IOUs from Uncle Sam.
In other words, the only way to save bonds is to kill currencies.
This, by the way, is a now familiar trajectory to any one paying attention (think of the September 2019 repo crisis, the March 2020 Covid crash or the 2022 Gilt crisis in the UK) the implications of which we’ve been warning well ahead of the pundits.
Such “state action,” of course, slowly kills the USD—but as I’ve also warned for years, the last bubble to pop in every centralized, debt-soaked financial failure throughout history is always the currency.
The once exceptional USD, sadly, is no exception. It just takes longer, a lot longer, to bring down a world reserve currency.
This, by the way, is not “gold bug sensationalism” but simple history supported by simple math—two disciplines our leaders, financial journalists and even bankers either don’t grasp or do their best to ignore, cancel or dismiss.
Again, with the ironies.
Even the Media Can’t Deny the Obvious
But at least the main stream pundits are catching on. This is only because the problem of unprecedented deficits alongside rising bond yields and hence debt costs are now too obvious to ignore.
The WSJ recently wrote that “deficits finally matter.”
In the end, and as warned over and over and over (and as confirmed, it seems, even by the squawking Fed officials above), the facts and Fed-speak all point toward a talking down of the USD in favor of Uncle Sam’s broken IOU.
That is, the media is already planting the seeds for the USD’s painful endgame.
This comes as ZERO surprise, despite the Greenback’s relative status as the best horse in the global glue factory.
And, at least for now, that USD is breaking well off its prior uptrend…
This weaker USD will provide needed liquidity relief for an over-stretched UST market.
But the USD (and DXY) will have to come down much further, in my opinion, to buy sovereign bond markets needed time.
Pick Your Poison: Busted Financial System or Neutered USD?
Eventually a choice will have to be made between saving the system (of which sovereign bonds are the foundation) or sacrificing the currency.
In other words, get ready for more dollar-destroying “state action” from that non-state/private enterprise otherwise known as the Fed—all in the form of direct magical mouse-click money.
The Postponed Pivot Already Began
For over a year, this inevitable Fed pivot toward QE was delayed by back-door QE-like measures from Yellen’s Treasury Department (i.e., refilling the Treasury General Account with T-Bills) or the dual (and multi-trillion) accounting tricks of BTFP bank-bailout (by which Uncle Sam guaranteed par value return to the banks but market value losses to the suckers on Main Street…)
Or War Might Be in Order? Ask Hemingway
In fact, the only thing that could publicly justify (and partially absorb) another massive dose of 2020-like money printing (and hence currency debasement) would be a big, fat, ugly war with war-like “emergency measures” whereby our leaders can blame decades of debt-addiction on battle smoke (or COVID, Putin, and men from Mars) rather than their own bathroom mirrors.
Again, Hemingway was likely onto this trend long before the WSJ or FT:
Around and Round We Go
But with conflicts now red hot in both the Ukraine and Israel, Biden and his broken bond market are hitting an inflection point where the USA just can’t really afford more war support to its allies without thinning the USD and over-stretching its UST.
And so, folks… around and round we go in the ultimate vicious circle within which all debt-soaked nations throughout history ultimately find themselves.
That is: 1) poorly managed nations get too drunk on debt, and then 2) debase their currency to pay their debt; thereafter, 3) inflation comes, followed by 4) rising rates to fight that inflation, which in turn means 5) higher debt service costs, which means 6) more inflationary currency creation is rolled out to pay those higher rates.
Stated more simply, the USA has hit the Fiscal Dominance arc of the debt-cycle vicious circle wherein fighting inflation just creates more inflation.
The World Is Catching On…
We, of course, are not the only ones who see this.
In fact, pretty much the entire world is catching on, with the BRICS+ nations making the first steady moves (de-dollarization) as eastern and other central banks continue to stack physical gold at record-levels in preparation for the slow but steady decline (not death, nod to Brent Johnson) of the World Reserve Currency.
As I recently wrote, just like kings bring horses and canons to their borders to defend against an approaching invader, central banks are stacking physical gold to defend against a debased USD.
It’s just that obvious.
This may explain why gold continues to rise in London and NYC despite so-called “positive real rates” and a still relatively strong USD.
That is, the world, including the Shanghai gold exchange, is seeing the golden lighthouse through the smoke of burning currencies.
Are you?
end
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
This is how the uSA is creating artificial demand for Treasuries:
(Robert Lambourne)
Robert Lambourne: A strange coincidence or the Fed’s back-door intervention in Treasuries?
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-10-21 21:20Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne Sunday, October 22, 2023
1. Introduction
This note considers whether the developing short position in U.S. Treasury futures might be linked to the process of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) whereby the Federal Reserve has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and other assets since the peak reached in March 2022.
The chart at the link below tracks on a weekly basis the level of net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures (in blue) and the decline in the holdings of U.S. Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve from the peak holding on June 8, 2022 — $5,771.4 billion (in green). The starting date for both lines is the week commencing March 20, 2022, when the Federal Reserve’s assets were reported to be at the highest in total at $9,012 billion on March 23, 2022:
As can be seen from the chart there appears to be a correlation between the two, and this may of course be a coincidence as this was a time of big changes, including sharp rises in the consumer price index and recurring increases in short-term interest rates commencing at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 17, 2022.
But instead of a coincidence it is also possible that the basis trade described further in Section 3 below, whereby hedge funds have built up short positions in Treasury futures together with an offsetting purchase of the underlying Treasury security, has been deliberately developed to increase demand for Treasuries to ease the passage of QT. This is discussed further in Sections 4 and 5 below.
A summary of the interest rate changes made by the Fed and the timing during this period is in Appendix A.
2. Quantitative Tightening (“QT”)
As noted above, the Federal Reserve’s peak holdings of U.S. Treasuries was reported to be $5,771.4 billion in its balance sheet for June 8, 2022. Since then the Fed has been selling its holdings and the link below is to a Reuters report published on May 4, 2022, that explains the plans for QT announced by the Fed with the intention of reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries from June 2022 onward:
The green line on the chart above records the reduction each week in the Fed’s reported holdings of Treasuries based on its published weekly balance sheets as of Wednesday each week. Reuters reported that the Fed was planning to cut its holdings by $60 billion per month. The chart indicates that the reduction through to September 6, 2023, is in line with this plan.
A brief description of the plan to reduce holdings is set out in the Reuters report:
“The plan issued Wednesday indicated officials will rely on redemptions of T-bills, which mature in a year or less, when the redemption of coupon securities, which are notes and bonds with maturities greater than one year, are below the monthly cap.
“Officials generally don’t view T-bills as a needed part of their holdings required to ensure an ample supply of reserves for the banking system under their current operating framework.”
Hence QT in regard to the Treasuries market was supposed to rely mainly on non-reinvestment in the refinancing of maturing securities, plus sales of short-term debt instruments. No mention was made concerning any efforts to assist QT by assisting the development of extra demand for Treasury securities.
3. Short positions in U.S. Treasury futures and the Basis Trade
On Sept. 18, 2023, the Bank for International Settlements published a report titled “Margin Leverage and Vulnerabilities in U.S. Treasury Futures”:
“Speculative positions by leveraged investors in U.S. Treasuries are back. Over recent months leveraged funds have built up net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures of about $600 billion.”
The blue line in the chart above represents the buildup of these short positions. The chart has been prepared using weekly data provided by the BIS in an Excel worksheet that can be accessed here:
The end point of the chart is the week commencing September 3, 2023, which is the end date of the data provided by the BIS in its report of September 18, 2023.
Week 1 of the chart has been chosen for the week of Wednesday, March 23, 2023, the date when the weekly published balance sheet of the Federal Reserve was at its maximum asset value of $9,012 billion. This balance sheet is here.
More background to the short positions built up in Treasury futures is set out as follows in the BIS report:
“Back in September 2019 and March 2020, price discrepancies between futures and the underlying cash bonds (the cash-futures ‘basis’) encouraged highly leveraged funds to engage in relative value trades. Recent evidence suggests that the same type of trade may be driving the current buildup.
“When Treasury futures are priced at a premium relative to cash bonds, a common relative value trading strategy consists of selling futures forward (building short positions in futures), matched by purchases of bonds (long positions in the cash market). Such a trade generates profits because the futures and cash prices eventually converge on the futures contract’s expiration date. Since the basis is typically narrow, investors need to boost profits through very high leverage; that is, they commit little of their own capital and borrow the rest. A key way of levering up involves the long positions: Investors borrow cash in the repo market (usually having to roll over daily) by posting their U.S. Treasury holdings as collateral.”
The revelation that significant short positions had been built up in U.S. Treasury futures accompanied by high levels of leverage triggered concerns among regulators and the financial press. The Financial Times reported about this:
Further, the Federal Reserve itself had also published an analysis of this buildup in Treasury futures short positions on August 30, 2023, which presumably triggered the BIS report:
The Fed’s report expresses concern that these trades may constitute a “financial stability vulnerability” that “warrants continued and diligent monitoring.” The report also notes that the increases in interest rates made by the Fed may have been an influence in developing this trade.
Hence the growth of the “basis trade” undertaken by hedge funds was seen as a risk to financial stability in the market in U.S. Treasuries and consequently was not welcomed by regulators, including the Fed.
4. The U.S. Treasuries market
The U.S. Treasuries market is regularly cited as the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world. It has experienced a significant increase in size over the last five years because of the excess of the U.S. government’s expenditure over tax receipts. Here are some relevant figures:
———————-
The U.S. Treasuries market owned by the public, in billions of dollars
Amount outstanding / Increase
28/09/18: 15,761
30/09/19: 16,809 ….. 1,048
30/09/20: 21,019 ….. 4,210
30/09/21: 22,283 ….. 1,264
30/09/22: 24,299 ….. 2,016
29/09/23: 26,330 ….. 2,031
———————-
As can be seen from this table, in five years the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds owned by the public has risen by $10,569 billion, or 67%. Several reports in recent years have indicated that because of the recurring growth of federal government expenditure in excess of tax receipts, market stresses are evident from time to time.
Here is one such report, by the G30 Working Group on Treasury Market Liquidity, published in July 2021:
Whether the Treasuries market really is as deep and as liquid as is usually claimed is relevant when considering the basis trade described in Section 3 above.
It seems odd that the small discrepancies between futures prices and those of the underlying bonds apparently remain large enough so regularly to offer a sufficient profit opportunity to induce this basis trade being made more or less continuously since June 2022. If the market for U.S. Treasuries was really as deep and liquid (that is, efficient) as claimed, regularly making those trades should be very difficult. In theory, if a market is perfectly efficient, then it should not be possible to make such trades at all.
To obtain an “independent” view on whether basis trades can be made successfully in efficient markets, ChatGPT was requested to confirm whether a basis trade was possible in an efficient market. Here is ChatGPT’s answer:
“Basis trades can occur in any market, including efficient markets. Efficient markets are characterized by the rapid and thorough incorporation of all available information into asset prices, making it challenging to consistently profit from discrepancies or mispricings. However, basis trades in efficient markets may not be as common, as the opportunities for significant profits may be limited, and the competition among traders to capture such opportunities can be intense.
“In efficient markets, such as many major stock markets, it’s generally more difficult to find discrepancies or mispricings because information is widely available and quickly incorporated into asset prices. However, efficient markets can still exhibit temporary price divergences or basis differences due to various factors, such as liquidity constraints, market participants’ differing interpretations of information, or technical trading issues.
“In the context of basis trades involving Treasury securities and futures, which are often traded in highly liquid and efficient markets, traders may look for short-term deviations in the basis. These deviations can arise from factors like supply and demand imbalances, technical trading, or macroeconomic events that temporarily affect the relationship between cash (actual Treasury securities) and futures prices. Traders in these markets closely monitor these discrepancies and may take positions to exploit them, but they need to act quickly because efficient markets tend to correct such discrepancies relatively swiftly.
“In summary, while basis trades can occur in efficient markets, the profit potential may be limited, and traders may need to act swiftly to capture any deviations in the basis. Success in such trades often depends on timing, trading expertise, and a keen understanding of the specific market dynamics.”
The facts captured in the chart suggest that it has been possible to continue to trade the basis involving Treasury securities and futures, presumably with a realistic potential to earn profits, since the summer of 2022. Hence there appears to be evidence that the Treasuries market is not as efficient as generally thought.
This raises a number of possibilities, especially since the broad trend of QT and the buildup of short positions in Treasury futures are similar, including apparently starting around the same time in the summer of 2022.
One of these possibilities is that the basis trade opportunity has been created either with the explicit or implicit approval of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department to help provide more general market or specific security demand, thereby enabling the Fed to sell its bonds readily to a class of buyers — hedge funds — that would not normally be expected to be natural medium-term holders of these bonds. It would seem entirely feasible for an intermediary to arrange the entire trade including repo finance for a hedge fund with the tacit support of the Fed and Treasury.
If this is the case, then it may highlight the underlying difficulties in funding the ever-growing excess of spending over tax receipts by the U.S. government. This raises the question as to whether U.S. Treasuries are really as safe an investment as is commonly claimed. It strengthens the argument that investors might consider alternatives such as gold and silver.
GATA recently posted a report on gold by Winston Miles of Eight Capital in Toronto that notes that many foreign governments and central banks are now refusing to invest further capital into U.S. Treasuries and are buying gold instead:
The possibility that U.S. monetary authorities have tacitly engineered and supported a policy of encouraging what regulators, including the Fed itself, consider to be a risky trade with hedge funds holding highly leveraged short positions in Treasury futures is perhaps a reason to query whether U.S. Treasury bonds represent the safest investment category globally. The answer perhaps depends on whether the chart reveals a strange coincidence or is a sign of an effort to ease the passage of QT.
—–
Appendix A:
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
Join GATA here:
New Orleans Investment Conference Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel Wednesday-Saturday, November 1-4, 2023
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3170
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3205
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43,77 PTS OR 1.47%
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 259.81 PTS OR 0.83 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.92 EURO RISES TO 1.0605 UP 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.868 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.93/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.9405***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.934*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.052…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.328
3j Gold at $1979.20 silver at: 23.25 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 89 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 94.93//
3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and 91 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.93// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.868% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8918 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9459 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.989 UP 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.144 UP 6 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.123 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.05…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 9 BASIS PTS AT 4.7484
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Slide As 10Y Yields Breach 5% For The First Time Since 2007
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 08:18 AM
Global markets slumped and US equity futures started the new week deep in the red (if off the worst levels of the session) following losses on 5 of the past 7 weeks, after the 10-year Treasury yield finally topped 5%, fueling concern that soaring borrowing costs will erode economic growth. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.5% after sliding 0.7% earlier while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4%.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index sank 0.7%, reaching the lowest intraday level since March. The catalyst for the selling was the 11bps surge in 10 year yields to 5.02%, the highest since 2007, before dipping modestly below 5.00%.
Copper, viewed as a benchmark for the global economy, tumbled to the lowest in nearly eleven months, offering fresh evidence that soaring borrowing costs and slower spending are beginning to bite in all corners of the industrial economy. WTI futures shed 0.7% as US and allies intensified efforts to stop the Israel-Hamas war from spreading. The USD is weaker pre-mkt, VIX higher, and commodities lower while the recent surge in bitcoin continued over the weekend, and pushed the crypto currency just shy of $31,000 before reversing.
Today the Fed enters its own blackout window after a flurry of Fedspeak the last 2 weeks, just as stocks exit their buyback blackout period. MegaCap Tech is the focus within earnings this week. Mega-energy M&A continues with CVX bidding for HES. Today’s econ calendar is sparse: we get an update from the Chicago Fed ahead of tomorrow’s flash PMIs.
In premarket trading, energy giant Chevron dropped 2% after it agreed to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, of $171 per share, a deal aimed at boosting production growth as the US oil industry bets on an enduring future for fossil fuels. Major technology and internet stocks such as Alphabet, Apple , Microsft and Nvidia, were among major technology and internet stocks that dropped, along with US equity futures as the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years. Some other notable movers:
Farfetch rose 2.5% as the European Commission unconditionally cleared the acquisition of a 47.5% stake in YOOX NET-A-PORTER (YNAP) from Richemont.
Hess shares rose 2.4% after Chevron (CVX US) agreed to buy the energy company for $53 billion in the latest major US oil takeover as the industry bets on an enduring future for fossil fuels.
Pinterest climbed 2.4% after Stifel raised its rating to buy from hold. The broker noted that there is a lot of room for growth outside the company’s domestic market.
Textainer Group shares soared 42% after Stonepeak Partners agreed to buy the container leasing firm in a deal valued at around $7.4 billion.
Walgreens Boots Alliance rose 3.5% as JPMorgan raised the drugstore chain rating to overweight from neutral. The broker notes that the company has an opportunity to remove several stock overhangs and improve performance.
The speed and severity of the bond selloff is capturing Wall Street’s attention, just as earnings season gets underway. With US data continuing to show a strong economy and Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the need to keep interest rates high until inflation abates, many investors are turning more bearish on risk assets.
“5% is purely a psychological level,” said Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International. “All moves higher in yield pose the same difficulties for the markets — a higher ‘risk-free’ rate will encourage investors to reduce riskier asset holdings like equities, credit and emerging market assets, and allocate more into Treasuries.”
Inflation readings in Australia and Japan later this week as well as economic activity data in the US and Europe will offer more clues on the outlook for global interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to give remarks and the European Central Bank will deliver a policy decision.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index sank 0.6%, reaching the lowest intraday level since March, with real estate and mining shares slumping the most, as US bond yields resumed their march toward 5%; autos and utilities also drop. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Getinge gains as much as 6.7%, the most since June and the biggest gainer on the Stoxx 600 Health Care subindex, after the Swedish medical technology group reported 3Q earnings described as robust by analysts
Varta shares soar as much as 12% after CEO Markus Hackstein said in an interview with newspaper Augsburger Allgemeine that the German battery maker has resumed supplying a large client that had previously canceled orders
VW shares fall as much as 3.3% to their lowest intraday value since April 2020 after reporting third-quarter Ebit below analyst expectations and again adjusting its full-year expectations after market on Friday
Adevinta shares fall as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after Bloomberg News reported over the weekend that a consortium backed by Permira and Blackstone is reconsidering its pursuit of the European online classifieds company
Philips shares drop as much as 5.3%,, after reporting a drop in comparable order intake in the third quarter, offsetting an earnings beat and guidance increase. Analysts said potential pressures on sales growth lie ahead
Vistry Group shares slip as much as 6.2%, after the builder reduced its full-year adjusted pretax profit guidance below estimates. The update is “bittersweet,” RBC analysts say, noting there is no sign of the usual early-autumn pickup
Basic-Fit falls as much as 4.7% after two brokers lowered their price targets on the Dutch health and wellness gym chain’s shares because of the slower membership growth reported in the third quarter
Piaggio drops as much as 7% in Milan trading after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Niccolo Guido Storer (buy) cut the price target to €4 from €5 on the Italian motor vehicle maker, citing an increase in the cost of capital
Mission Group shares drop as much as 62%, a record one-day plunge, after the marketing company issued a profit warning and started an operational review because trading has “rapidly become more challenging than previously anticipated” as clients cut spending, according to a statement
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks extended losses from last week, as sentiment remained fragile amid concerns from the Middle East conflict to Federal Reserve policy and China’s economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, heading for a fourth-straight day of declines, with TSMC, BHP Group and Samsung among the biggest drags. Monday’s drop comes after stocks capped their worst week since August on Friday. Risk sentiment is waning as investors contemplate the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East that could spur global oil prices higher and further add to concerns over inflation and high interest rates. This week, traders will be parsing for clues on the outlook for global interest rates with inflation readings in Australia and Japan.
A gauge of Chinese tech stocks fell to the lowest since its inception more than three years ago, as investor demand evaporates in the face of higher global rates. Confidence was rattled after Beijing launched a series of investigations into Apple supplier Foxconn, weighing on shares of its listed arm Hon Hai Precision in Taiwan. Hang Seng was closed due to a public holiday. In Taiwan, Apple-supplier Foxconn tumbled over 3% after Global Times sources suggested Chinese mainland tax and natural resource authorities have conducted inspections on key enterprises of Foxconn.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was also weaker with the downside led by the Energy and Material names, while the index managed to stay afloat above 31k.
Australia’s ASX 200 fell at the open with the losses led by the Metals and mining sector as the sector caught up to the price action across base metals.
Indian equities posted their steepest single day drop in three months as concerns over rising US Treasury yields and the ongoing Middle East conflict hurt risk assets globally. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 1.3% to 64,571.88 in Mumbai, its lowest close since June 28, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slid by a similar measure. Both gauges have fallen for four straight days, paring their year-to-date gains to little over 6%. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the losses, falling 1.1%.
In Argentina, investors were bracing for a selloff after Economy Minister Sergio Massa did better than forecast in Sunday’s presidential vote, dashing hopes for an outright win by a more market-friendly candidate. The country’s dollar bonds — already trading below 30 cents on the dollar — extended their losses on Monday, with five of them including the 2029 note figuring among the worst performers in emerging markets.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steady at 1273.23 after losing 0.2% in the past two days. Investors are waiting for the release of US data including the manufacturing PMI due Tuesday, third-quarter GDP Thursday and the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge on Friday. USD/JPY briefly rose above 150 in early Asian trading before slipping back below. The euro is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.2% versus the greenback.
“Data this week should confirm that the US economy continues to run hot and that the Fed has more work to do to cool it off,” Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a research note. “The dollar should play catchup and strengthen along with the higher yields”
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007 – rising 9bps to 5.01%, before retreating modestly. Treasuries were cheaper by 4bp-8bp across the curve, holding a bear-steepening move that saw 10-year yields breach 5% for the first time since 2007. Treasuries follow similar bear-steepening moves across core European rates amid an absence of escalation in Middle East tensions. US 10-year yields hover near 5% into early US session after topping close to 5.02%, underperforming bunds and gilts by 2bp and 3bp in the sector; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s curve by ~4bp, 5s30s by ~1bp. 2s10s spread reached -11bp, least inverted since July 2022. The Dollar IG issuance slate is rather spares and includes BGK 5Y; around $20 billion in new bond sales are expected this week; among six biggest Wall Street banks, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have yet to announce offerings. The Treasury auction cycle begins Tuesday with $51b 2-year note sale, followed by 5- and 7-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday.
In commodities, oil prices were lower but off their worst levels with WTI falling 0.2% to trade near $87.90. Fears softened over the weekend that the conflict in the Middle East would escalate as Israel held off on its ground offensive into Gaza amid efforts to secure the release of more hostages. Gold prices pared an earlier drop to trade little changed.
The US economic data slate is quiet to start the week and only includes the September Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30am. Ahead this week are the October preliminary S&P Global PMIs, first estimate of 3Q GDP, and September personal income/spending.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,243.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 432.22
MXAP down 0.7% to 151.74
MXAPJ down 0.7% to 475.19
Nikkei down 0.8% to 30,999.55
Topix down 0.7% to 2,238.81
Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 17,172.13
Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,939.29
Sensex down 0.5% to 65,090.08
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,844.08
Kospi down 0.8% to 2,357.02
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.93%
Euro little changed at $1.0601
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $91.93/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,981.75
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.12
Top Overnight News
BOJ emerging as a fresh source of macro anxiety as Ueda comes under pressure ahead of the 10/30-31 meeting to raise the YCC ceiling amid JPY weakness and upward yield pressure globally. RTRS / Nikkei
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged on Monday to compensate households for the rising cost of living with subsidies and payouts, stressing his government’s resolve to pull the economy permanently out of stagnation (which is leading to some angst about Japan’s fiscal health). RTRS
Apple supplier Hon Hai fell the most in three months after Chinese regulators reportedly launched a probe into parent Foxconn over taxes and land use. The move, alongside a series of arrests across industries, has rattled foreign firms. FT / BBG
Brussels is weighing whether to prolong an emergency gas price cap introduced in February amid fears that the conflict in the Middle East and sabotage of a Baltic pipeline could push up prices again this winter. FT
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both the U.S. and Europe borrowed heavily. Now with those emergencies in the rear-view mirror, a divergence has emerged: Even as the U.S. continues to let deficits rip, Europe’s are on track to narrow significantly. WSJ
Fears that the Israel-Hamas war could mushroom into wider Middle East conflict rose on Sunday with Washington warning of a significant risk to U.S. interests in the region as ally Israel pounded Gaza and clashes on its border with Lebanon intensified. RTRS
Biden and senior US officials talked Netanyahu’s government out of launching a major strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon as the Pentagon feels Israel would struggle in a two-front war and that such a conflict would draw in outside parties, including Iran. NYT
Nine House Republicans declared themselves for the Speaker race, with the party set to meet Monday evening to hear from the candidates before voting on Tuesday, although it’s not clear anyone can get the 217 votes needed to secure the gavel. Washington Post
M&A Monday: Chevron will buy Hess in an all-stock transaction valued at $53 billion, the second oil megadeal this month. The price of $171 per share implies a 4.9% premium to Hess’s Friday close; Chevron stock slipped premarket. Roche agreed to buy irritable bowel drugmaker Telavant for $7.1 billion. Stonepeak will buy Textainer in a deal that gives the container lessor an enterprise value of about $7.4 billion. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded with losses across the board following the downside seen on Wall Street on Friday, with participants citing mixed earnings and geopolitical angst. ASX 200 fell at the open with the losses led by the Metals and mining sector as the sector caught up to the price action across base metals. Nikkei 225 was also weaker with the downside led by the Energy and Material names, while the index managed to stay afloat above 31k. Hang Seng was closed due to a public holiday while Shanghai Comp conformed to regional losses. In Taiwan, Apple-supplier Foxconn tumbled over 3% after Global Times sources suggested Chinese mainland tax and natural resource authorities have conducted inspections on key enterprises of Foxconn.
Top Asian News
The Chinese Commerce Minister said China seeks to encourage joint industrial collaboration with Gulf nations and wants to deepen the oil and gas cooperation model. The Commerce Minister added that China wants to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains, and seeks cooperation on potential new energy vehicles industries such as power batteries and smart charging, according to Reuters.
PBoC Governor Gongsheng said prudent monetary policy will be more precise and forceful, and added that they will steer countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments and maintain appropriate money supply and credit with a steady pace. Gongsheng added that they will enhance the stability of financial support for the real economy, and effectively support the expansion of domestic demand. He added they will guide financial institutions to cut real lending rates and reduce the financing costs for enterprises and individuals. Gongsheng added they will implement policy measures to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence. He added the PBoC will prudently resolve the default risk of bonds and of large real estate firms while strengthening the monitoring, warning and prevention of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bond risks. Gongsheng added they will prevent the risk of contagion in stock, bond and FX markets and ensure stable operation of financial markets, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 808bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 702bln net daily injection
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1792 vs exp. 7.3109 (prev. 7.1793)
Chinese mainland tax and natural resource authorities have conducted inspections on key enterprises of Apple-supplier (AAPL) Foxconn (2317 TT) in some cities in accordance with the law, according to Global Times “Experts said that while Taiwan-funded enterprises share the benefits of growth and achieve significant development in the mainland, they should also bear corresponding social responsibilities and play an active role in promoting the peaceful development of cross-Straits ties”. Sources close to Foxconn (2317 TT) suggest reports on China’s probe are unusual and believe Foxconn is possibly singled out for political reasons, according to Reuters
China reportedly plans to hold a twice-a-decade financial work conference on October 30-31st to focus on resolving risks, according to Bloomberg sources.
Chinese Agricultural Ministry says China’s pig supply is still growing and they are not expecting a sharp rise in Q4; says hog market could see even larger losses after the Chinese New Year, according to Reuters.
BoJ officials are reportedly mulling tweaking the settings of YCC “because domestic long-term interest rates are also rising as US interest rates rise, and are approaching the de facto upper limit of 1% set in the July revision.” The topic will be discussed at the next two-day meeting that ends on October 31st, “but there are differences of opinion within the Bank of Japan. Many say they want to carefully monitor trends in wage increases”, according to Nikkei sources. Any decision to change its YCC will largely depend on how markets move leading up to the Oct. 30-31st policy meeting, according to Reuters sources; there is currently no consensus within the BoJ on whether an immediate change to YCC is necessary. Among ideas that could be discussed would be to raise the ceiling for the 10-year JGB yield beyond 1.0%, sources added.
Japan’s Fair Trade Commission is to inspect Google (GOOG) for possible breach of anti-monopoly law, according to Nikkei.
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, despite fleeting gains at the cash open with the negative APAC handover and broader market sentiment, geopolitical concerns and ongoing yield upside weighing on the space. Sectors are almost all in the red with Basic Resources lagging on the risk tone and benchmark pricing while Real Estate suffers from marked yield upside despite favourable broker action in the sector. Stateside, futures are in the red, ES -0.7%, throughout much of the European morning the magnitude of losses had been more limited than those seen in Europe. However, as yields continue to rise and the US 10yr eclipse 5.0% performance has deteriorated to be in-line with Europe ahead of a particularly quiet US schedule today before a very busy week. Chevron (CVX) is to purchase Hess (HES) in a deal valued at USD 53bln or USD 171 per share. In pre-market trade, Hess (HES) +1.6% with Chevron (CVX) -2.9%.
Top European News
Philips Slides as Order Drop Raises Doubts Over Sales Growth
European Gas Slumps as Mild Weather Counters Geopolitical Risk
Adevinta Slumps as Buyout Firms Said to Reconsider Pursuit
European Stocks Drop for Fifth Day as Yields Resume Their Climb
VW Falls After Cutting Forecast on Hedging Loss, More Costs
Nordic Semiconductor, Ocado, HelloFresh Short Sellers Active
FX
Dollar and fellow safe havens lose some geopolitical risk premium, DXY drifts down from 106.330 to 106.040. However, having spent much of the morning in the red and nearer to the low, the USD is now managing to derive some incremental upside from the risk tone and yield action.
Franc retreats from 0.8915 vs Buck to sub-0.8950 and Gold hovers within USD 1982-64/oz range after peaking within USD 3 of 2k on Friday.
Euro and Pound initially firmer as the Greenback slips with EUR/USD probing 1.0600 and Cable above 1.2150; though, both GBP and EUR have retreated back through the levels as the USD firms up a touch.
Yen only just afloat of 150.00 as yields rebound firmly and USD/JPY shrugs aside sources suggesting the BoJ may tweak YCC again.
Indonesian Central Bank continues to intervene in the FX market, according to an official cited by Reuters.
Fixed Income
Bond bears pounce as safety premium is unwound and curves steepen further.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note all nearer the bottom of ranges spanning 127.33-83, 90.99-91.50 and 104-14/28 respectively.
BTPs holding up a bit better between 108.18-77 parameters on technical grounds and relief that S&P maintained Italy’s rating with a stable outlook irrespective of an expansive 2024 budget.
Indian government is cautious amid the spike in yields, according to Reuters sources; could take “remedial action” if yields unexpectedly increase. Oil at USD 90/bbl is not a concern for the budget unless excise duty is tweaked.
Commodities
Oil under pressure amid the broader tone in APAC hours and as Israel seemingly agrees to delay its ground invasion to allow for hostage negotiations.
Currently, WTI & Brent Dec’23 are holding just shy of the USD 88.00/bbl and USD 92.00/bbl marks respectively, within USD 86.83-88.29/bbl and USD 91.08-92.45/bbl bounds.
Spot gold is not really benefiting from the risk tone or USD weakness, with the yellow metal in a narrow range and yet to re-approach last week’s USD 1997/oz peak.
Base metals pressured by the risk tone and also unable to benefit from the softer USD, LME Copper pressured and down to the USD 7.9k/T mark and circa. USD 50/T down from Friday’s close.
Russia’s Gazprom is to supply an extra 600mln cubic meters of gas to China this year, exceeding its contractual obligations, according to Tass.
Russia’s Gazprom is to supply extra volumes of gas to Hungary this winter, according to Tass.
The EU is reportedly mulling extending the emergency gas price cap introduced in February amid fears the Middle Eastern tensions and the sabotage of the Baltic pipeline could push gas prices higher this winter, according to the FT.
Geopolitics: Israel-Hamas
US and allies hold discussions on concerns that the Israel-Hamas war will spread, via Bloomberg.
A second convoy of 17 aid trucks entered the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing towards Gaza, according to security and humanitarian sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that 14 trucks carrying aid for Gaza entered the region, according to Reuters.
Blasts and sounds of ambulances were reportedly heard near the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, according to Reuters witnesses.
The Israeli army told Gazans to move south or risk being seen as “terrorist organisation partners” if they stay put, according to Reuters citing Gaza residents.
US Secretary of State Blinken said the US sees potential for escalation of the war in the Middle East due to actions of Iran’s proxies and the US does not want escalation, according to NBC News. He added the US sees a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on US troops and people throughout the region.
US Defense Secretary Austin placed additional forces on prepare-to-deploy orders without offering a number. US Pentagon said the US is deploying THAAD batteries and additional battalions to the Middle East in response to the escalations in the region, according to Reuters.
The Israeli Military said they have killed the Deputy Chief of Hamas with rocket force, according to Reuters.
An Israeli raid was reported on the outskirts of the town of Aitaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia citing National News Agency. The Israeli army said they have targeted Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said if Hezbollah goes to war with Israel, it would bring unimaginable devastation upon it and Lebanon and added that he cannot yet say if Hezbollah will decide to fully enter the war, according to Reuters citing a statement from the PM’s office.
The Israeli President told Sky News that Hamas terrorists who broke into Israel were carrying instructions on how to make chemical weapons, according to Sky News.
Israel gave Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza one hour to evacuate, according to Al Arabiya. Israel airstrikes targeted the surroundings of Al Shifa and Al Quds hospitals in Gaza, according to Palestinian press Wafa cited by Reuters.
Israeli official said there will be ‘no ceasefire’ in Gaza, according to CNN and The Spectator Index.
Israeli Defence Forces said an IDF tank accidentally fired and hit an Egyptian post adjacent to the border in the area of Kerem Shalom. The IDF said it expressed sorrow regarding the incident, according to a statement via Telegram. An Egyptian army spokesperson said border watchmen sustained minor injuries after being hit by fragments of a shell from an Israeli tank, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
Israeli strikes reportedly hit and damaged both Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria, according to AFP citing Syrian state media.
A statement from the Department of National Defence and the Canadian armed forces on the recent strikes at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on the 17th of October suggested the strikes were more likely caused by an errant rocket fired from Gaza, according to Reuters.
Leaders of the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the UK have reiterated support for Israel and its right to defend itself; joint statement calls for adherence to humanitarian law and protection of civilians, according to Reuters. Leaders committed to working with partners of the region to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said French President Macron and Dutch PM Rutte are to visit Israel on Monday and Tuesday, according to Reuters.
China’s Middle East envoy, on the Israel-Hamas war, said China is willing to do whatever is conducive to the promotion of dialogue, ceasefire, and restoration of peace and promote implementation of the two-state solution; via Chinese state media.
Palestinian Hamas leader and Iranian Foreign Minister discussed the Israeli “brutal crimes” in Gaza in a phone call, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Other
A US official confirmed that the US is mulling measures to restrict China’s access to US cloud and computing services, according to Nikkei.
Clashes have reportedly erupted between the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Northern, with two fatalities, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to visit Iran on October 23rd, according to Ria.
Rocket attacks have reportedly targeted Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad airbase housing US forces; at least one blast was heard inside the army base, according to army sources cited by Reuters.
The Philippines has accused China’s coast guard of colliding with a Filipino supply boat in the South China Sea, according to the BBC. China said the Philippines “deliberately stirred up trouble”. Philippines National Security Council said continued blocking by Chinese vessels may lead to disastrous results; concerned by escalation and provocations by Chinese vessels, according to Reuters.
Six people have been killed and at least 14 injured in a Russian missile attack that hit a postal distribution centre in Kharkiv Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials cited by Sky News.
EU-US Summit Joint Statement: We have made progress toward a targeted critical minerals agreement for the purpose of expanding access to sustainable, secure, and diversified high-standard critical mineral and battery supply chains. We have made substantial progress in identifying the sources of non-market excess capacity of steel, according to the Commission statement.
Several buildings have been evacuated following a bomb threat at German public broadcaster ZDF, via Bild.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.14, prior -0.16
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from the middle of a forest somewhere deep in a Center Parcs resort. Hopefully I won’t see another zip wire, quad bike or a tornado water slide until the next time I’m dragged here.
With the Fed on their media blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC, things will be slightly quieter this week in terms of scheduled macro events after a hectic round of Fed speak last week. Those Fed speakers, including and especially Powell on Thursday, have been having a big impact on rates and the curve even if they haven’t said much that adds to the debate as to whether the Fed is done and if so, how long they’ll stay at these levels. US 2s10s and 2s30s both steepened more than 30bps last week (the most since post-SVB) even though 2yr yields were up +1.8bps. Although we are fully bought in to the steepener trade I’m struggling to explain why it moved so much last week. Perhaps the long end continues to be hit by supply, US fiscal fears (maybe including extra funding for Israel), and concerns over where the oil price might go whereas the front end is receiving the (relative) flight to quality trade that few want to put on at the long-end. Perhaps the recent back-end moves and the Middle-East tensions are also making the market more comfortable that central banks won’t move again at the front-end even as oil goes higher.
I continue to be concerned as to how markets will cope with such high yields at the back end of markets, especially those in the US. We spent 10-15 years with yields and rates low/zero/negative across the DM world, helped by QE as this was seen as the only way we could finance the enormous global debt load. If this synopsis is correct, then surely one of the biggest 2-3 year yield sell-offs in history risks causing a lot of pain beyond any seen so far. If yields stay elevated, the only way I think I’ll be wrong is if we actually didn’t need those levels of rates and yields in the 2010s, or if central banks and governments have taken on enough of the risk just in time to avoid pain from higher yields. That argument is harder to buy in to with QT and strong government supply combining at the moment. On the risk of accidents it was interesting that the US Regional Bank index fell -3.53% on Friday and is down around -20% since the local peak in August and is less than 10% away from the crisis lows in Q2 .
It isn’t the busiest week for data but there are a few important signposts which we’ll go through below but such is the way of the world it wouldn’t be a surprise if the big-tech results have as much impact as the data. We have Microsoft and Alphabet tomorrow as well as Meta on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, which together make up over $6tn in market cap, and nearly 17% of the S&P 500. Note that the 7th largest in the index Tesla fell -15.58% last week which was a bit of a blow for the mega caps but AI related stocks like Microsoft may fair better.
The data highlight might be the latest US core PCE reading as part of Friday’s consumer income and spending data. In terms of macro events the ECB meeting on Thursday might be a little more dull than it has been for the last 15 months but there could be discussion as to how they will further reduce their balance sheet going forward (see our economists’ preview here). T omorrow sees the latest quarterly ECB bank lending survey where the recent reports have suggested very tight lending standards but with expectations that this should loosen in the subsequent quarter. This optimism has reduced the concerns over current conditions so we will see if that improvement has materialised and whether it’s expected to continue.
The global flash PMIs tomorrow will also be important, especially to see if manufacturing and Germany can pick up from what are very low levels historically.
Investors will also keep an eye on the preliminary Q3 GDP report in the US where our economists expect a 5.2% annualised number (vs. 2.1% in Q2) in what was a quarter that surprised almost everyone with its strength.
Elsewhere in the US we have durable goods orders (DB forecast -0.5% MoM vs +0.1% in August) and advance goods trade balance on Thursday, new home sales on Wednesday, and the final UoM consumer confidence numbers on Friday with the final inflation expectations reading. The Bank of Canada will also decide on rates on Wednesday with markets only pricing in around a 10% probability of a hike .
There will be more indicators of economic sentiment on the continent next week. This includes consumer confidence for the Eurozone today as well as a gauge for Germany (tomorrow) and France (Friday). Germany will also be in focus when it comes to business sentiment, with the Ifo survey due on Wednesday. In the UK, the focus will be on labour market data tomorrow with unemployment rate already 0.8pp above the lows, the most in the DM world. Moving on to Asia, key data releases in Japan include the Tokyo CPI on Friday and the services PPI on Thursday. This follows news from the Nikkei last night that the BoJ are looking at another tweak to its YCC policy. Our economist continues to believe they’ll make changes at their meeting next week.
In terms of earnings, in addition to the US tech earnings mentioned at the top, we have a busy week with the key highlights mentioned in the day-by-day calendar at the end which also includes all the main data and other events.
Asian equity markets have started the week on a negative footing, mirroring Friday’s losses on Wall Street as reservation around risk-taking persists along with dollar strength. As I check my screens, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.90%) is leading losses across the region closely followed by the Nikkei (-0.81%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.81%) and the CSI (-0.79%). Otherwise, the KOSPI (-0.46%) is also edging lower this morning while markets in Hong Kong are closed for a holiday.
In overnight trading, US stock futures are seeing a rebound with those on the S&P 500 (+0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.22%) moving higher ahead of the release of big tech earnings this week. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yrs USTs (+6.83bps) have again moved higher standing at 4.98%, within a whisker of 5% as we go to press. 2s10s curve is seeing further steepening in Asia session reaching -14.9bps, marking its highest level since July 2022.
We’re keeping an eye on Argentina which went to the polls over the weekend. With almost all the vote counted Sergio Massa, the Economy Minister, is in front on 37% while the libertarian economist Javier Milei coming in second with 30%. The two will now go to a run-off in November.
Now looking back on last week, the situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain but playing out in an environment where investors are reluctant to buy duration as their safe haven play. Such a view may have been a big contributor to the large steepening seen as the front end held in much better.
Although US 10yr Treasury yields fell -7.5bps on Friday, 10yr yields rose +30.3bps to 4.92% on the week, in its largest up move since April 2022. The 30yr rose +32.2 bps. Both saw their highest weekly close since 2007. By contrast, the 2yr yield was near flat on the week (+1.8bps to 5.08%) after rallying -8.6bps on Friday. This contrast marked the sharpest weekly curve steepening since just after the collapse of SVB in March. The 2s30s slope returned to a zero level for the first time since last summer (it was -73bps a month earlier, on the day of the September FOMC). European bonds saw a more moderate sell off on the week, with 10yr bund yields up +15.3bps (and -4.1bps on Friday) with 2yr yields down -1.7bps (-8.1bps on Friday) .
US equity volatility jumped last week, as the VIX index rose +2.4 points to its highest level since March (and +0.3 points on Friday). Overall, equities closed the week down, with the S&P 500 down -2.39% (and -1.26% on Friday) to its lowest level since early June. Tech was not spared from the selloff, as the NASDAQ slipped -3.16% week-on-week (and -1.26% on Friday). Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 fell -3.44% last week, down to its lowest level since the first trading day of the year (and -1.36% on Friday).
The FANG+ index of megacap stocks also struggled last week after it fell -5.03% (and -1.93% on Friday), with Tesla down -15.58% in its worst week since last December (and -3.69% on Friday). Tesla’s retreat came on the back of Wednesday’s earnings and new restrictions by China on Friday on the export of natural graphite exports, critical for EV batteries, in reaction to new US limits on Nvidia’s AI chip exports. Read more on this development and impacts in Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace’s latest reports on graphite (here) and semiconductors (here)***
Finally, we turn to commodities. As Middle East tensions weigh on oil markets, Brent crude secured its second consecutive week of gains after gaining +1.40% to $92.16/bbl, although it retreated slightly on Friday (-0.24%). WTI crude followed suit, rising +1.21% week-on-week (-0.69% on Friday). Gold posted its strongest week of the year so far, climbing +2.51% to eye the $2,000 mark at $1,981/ounce (and +0.99% on Friday).
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Sentiment slips as geopolitical tensions & rising yields remain in the driving seat – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 06:40 AM
Equities in the red as initial European upside dissipates amid the soured risk tone and further yield upside
USD unable to benefit from the above for much of the morning, but has most recently inched into the green as the US 10yr yield surpasses 5.0%
JPY shrugs off the latest sources piece around BoJ YCC and resides just shy of 150.00
Core fixed income benchmarks all reside at session lows with BTPs the outlier and firmer after S&P action
Commodities under pressure on the above while metals have been unable to benefit from initial USD weakness
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Flash and Australian Flash PMIs. Earnings from UniCredit.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, despite fleeting gains at the cash open with the negative APAC handover and broader market sentiment, geopolitical concerns and ongoing yield upside weighing on the space.
Sectors are almost all in the red with Basic Resources lagging on the risk tone and benchmark pricing while Real Estate suffers from marked yield upside despite favourable broker action in the sector.
Stateside, futures are in the red, ES -0.7%, throughout much of the European morning the magnitude of losses had been more limited than those seen in Europe.
However, as yields continue to rise and the US 10yr eclipse 5.0% performance has deteriorated to be in-line with Europe ahead of a particularly quiet US schedule today before a very busy week.
Chevron (CVX) is to purchase Hess (HES) in a deal valued at USD 53bln or USD 171 per share. In pre-market trade, Hess (HES) +1.6% with Chevron (CVX) -2.9%.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Dollar and fellow safe havens lose some geopolitical risk premium, DXY drifts down from 106.330 to 106.040. However, having spent much of the morning in the red and nearer to the low, the USD is now managing to derive some incremental upside from the risk tone and yield action.
Franc retreats from 0.8915 vs Buck to sub-0.8950 and Gold hovers within USD 1982-64/oz range after peaking within USD 3 of 2k on Friday.
Euro and Pound initially firmer as the Greenback slips with EUR/USD probing 1.0600 and Cable above 1.2150; though, both GBP and EUR have retreated back through the levels as the USD firms up a touch.
Yen only just afloat of 150.00 as yields rebound firmly and USD/JPY shrugs aside sources suggesting the BoJ may tweak YCC again.
Indonesian Central Bank continues to intervene in the FX market, according to an official cited by Reuters.
Bond bears pounce as safety premium is unwound and curves steepen further.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note all nearer the bottom of ranges spanning 127.33-83, 90.99-91.50 and 104-14/28 respectively.
BTPs holding up a bit better between 108.18-77 parameters on technical grounds and relief that S&P maintained Italy’s rating with a stable outlook irrespective of an expansive 2024 budget.
Indian government is cautious amid the spike in yields, according to Reuters sources; could take “remedial action” if yields unexpectedly increase. Oil at USD 90/bbl is not a concern for the budget unless excise duty is tweaked.
Oil under pressure amid the broader tone in APAC hours and as Israel seemingly agrees to delay its ground invasion to allow for hostage negotiations.
Currently, WTI & Brent Dec’23 are holding just shy of the USD 88.00/bbl and USD 92.00/bbl marks respectively, within USD 86.83-88.29/bbl and USD 91.08-92.45/bbl bounds.
Spot gold is not really benefiting from the risk tone or USD weakness, with the yellow metal in a narrow range and yet to re-approach last week’s USD 1997/oz peak.
Base metals pressured by the risk tone and also unable to benefit from the softer USD, LME Copper pressured and down to the USD 7.9k/T mark and circa. USD 50/T down from Friday’s close.
Russia’s Gazprom is to supply an extra 600mln cubic meters of gas to China this year, exceeding its contractual obligations, according to Tass.
Russia’s Gazprom is to supply extra volumes of gas to Hungary this winter, according to Tass.
The EU is reportedly mulling extending the emergency gas price cap introduced in February amid fears the Middle Eastern tensions and the sabotage of the Baltic pipeline could push gas prices higher this winter, according to the FT.
S&P affirmed the United Kingdom’s ‘AA/A-1+’ rating; outlook stable.
S&P raised Greece to BBB- from BB+, taking it to investment grade.
S&P affirmed Italy’s ‘BBB/A-2’ rating; outlook stable.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed Financial Stability Report: Persistent inflation, monetary tightening, and potential losses in CRE are the most cited near-term risks to financial stability. Risks posed by economic weakness in China is increasingly cited as near-term risk. Russia-Ukraine war is seen as a diminishing risk, ranked no. 11 in the latest report, vs no. 1 in the Spring 2022 report. Corporate bond performance remains solid, and signs of deterioration have been emerging since May. Banks reporting lending standards are now on the tighter end of historical ranges for all loan categories.
Swiss Federal Election: The right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP) increased its share of the vote to 29%, 3.4ppts higher than the last election in 2019, according to the final projection by Swiss broadcaster SRF.
Argentina Presidential Election: With most ballots now counted, no candidate has received more than 45% of votes – the threshold to be elected – Javier Milei and Sergio Massa head for a run-off vote next month, according to the BBC.
GEOPOLITICS
ISRAEL-HAMAS
US and allies hold discussions on concerns that the Israel-Hamas war will spread, via Bloomberg.
A second convoy of 17 aid trucks entered the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing towards Gaza, according to security and humanitarian sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that 14 trucks carrying aid for Gaza entered the region, according to Reuters.
Blasts and sounds of ambulances were reportedly heard near the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, according to Reuters witnesses.
The Israeli army told Gazans to move south or risk being seen as “terrorist organisation partners” if they stay put, according to Reuters citing Gaza residents.
US Secretary of State Blinken said the US sees potential for escalation of the war in the Middle East due to actions of Iran’s proxies and the US does not want escalation, according to NBC News. He added the US sees a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on US troops and people throughout the region.
US Defense Secretary Austin placed additional forces on prepare-to-deploy orders without offering a number. US Pentagon said the US is deploying THAAD batteries and additional battalions to the Middle East in response to the escalations in the region, according to Reuters.
The Israeli Military said they have killed the Deputy Chief of Hamas with rocket force, according to Reuters.
An Israeli raid was reported on the outskirts of the town of Aitaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia citing National News Agency. The Israeli army said they have targeted Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said if Hezbollah goes to war with Israel, it would bring unimaginable devastation upon it and Lebanon and added that he cannot yet say if Hezbollah will decide to fully enter the war, according to Reuters citing a statement from the PM’s office.
The Israeli President told Sky News that Hamas terrorists who broke into Israel were carrying instructions on how to make chemical weapons, according to Sky News.
Israel gave Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza one hour to evacuate, according to Al Arabiya. Israel airstrikes targeted the surroundings of Al Shifa and Al Quds hospitals in Gaza, according to Palestinian press Wafa cited by Reuters.
Israeli official said there will be ‘no ceasefire’ in Gaza, according to CNN and The Spectator Index.
Israeli Defence Forces said an IDF tank accidentally fired and hit an Egyptian post adjacent to the border in the area of Kerem Shalom. The IDF said it expressed sorrow regarding the incident, according to a statement via Telegram. An Egyptian army spokesperson said border watchmen sustained minor injuries after being hit by fragments of a shell from an Israeli tank, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
Israeli strikes reportedly hit and damaged both Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria, according to AFP citing Syrian state media.
A statement from the Department of National Defence and the Canadian armed forces on the recent strikes at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on the 17th of October suggested the strikes were more likely caused by an errant rocket fired from Gaza, according to Reuters.
Leaders of the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the UK have reiterated support for Israel and its right to defend itself; joint statement calls for adherence to humanitarian law and protection of civilians, according to Reuters. Leaders committed to working with partners of the region to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said French President Macron and Dutch PM Rutte are to visit Israel on Monday and Tuesday, according to Reuters.
China’s Middle East envoy, on the Israel-Hamas war, said China is willing to do whatever is conducive to the promotion of dialogue, ceasefire, and restoration of peace and promote implementation of the two-state solution; via Chinese state media.
Palestinian Hamas leader and Iranian Foreign Minister discussed the Israeli “brutal crimes” in Gaza in a phone call, according to Reuters.
OTHER
A US official confirmed that the US is mulling measures to restrict China’s access to US cloud and computing services, according to Nikkei.
Clashes have reportedly erupted between the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Northern, with two fatalities, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to visit Iran on October 23rd, according to Ria.
Rocket attacks have reportedly targeted Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad airbase housing US forces; at least one blast was heard inside the army base, according to army sources cited by Reuters.
The Philippines has accused China’s coast guard of colliding with a Filipino supply boat in the South China Sea, according to the BBC. China said the Philippines “deliberately stirred up trouble”. Philippines National Security Council said continued blocking by Chinese vessels may lead to disastrous results; concerned by escalation and provocations by Chinese vessels, according to Reuters.
Six people have been killed and at least 14 injured in a Russian missile attack that hit a postal distribution centre in Kharkiv Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials cited by Sky News.
EU-US Summit Joint Statement: We have made progress toward a targeted critical minerals agreement for the purpose of expanding access to sustainable, secure, and diversified high-standard critical mineral and battery supply chains. We have made substantial progress in identifying the sources of non-market excess capacity of steel, according to the Commission statement.
Several buildings have been evacuated following a bomb threat at German public broadcaster ZDF, via Bild.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer on the session but has slipped off of USD 38.98k best as the crypto failed to breach the USD 31k mark; nonetheless, it holds onto upside of circa. 3.0% and remains comfortably above last week’s peak.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded with losses across the board following the downside seen on Wall Street on Friday, with participants citing mixed earnings and geopolitical angst.
ASX 200 fell at the open with the losses led by the Metals and mining sector as the sector caught up to the price action across base metals.
Nikkei 225 was also weaker with the downside led by the Energy and Material names, while the index managed to stay afloat above 31k.
Hang Seng was closed due to a public holiday while Shanghai Comp conformed to regional losses. In Taiwan, Apple-supplier Foxconn tumbled over 3% after Global Times sources suggested Chinese mainland tax and natural resource authorities have conducted inspections on key enterprises of Foxconn.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
The Chinese Commerce Minister said China seeks to encourage joint industrial collaboration with Gulf nations and wants to deepen the oil and gas cooperation model. The Commerce Minister added that China wants to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains, and seeks cooperation on potential new energy vehicles industries such as power batteries and smart charging, according to Reuters.
PBoC Governor Gongsheng said prudent monetary policy will be more precise and forceful, and added that they will steer countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments and maintain appropriate money supply and credit with a steady pace. Gongsheng added that they will enhance the stability of financial support for the real economy, and effectively support the expansion of domestic demand. He added they will guide financial institutions to cut real lending rates and reduce the financing costs for enterprises and individuals. Gongsheng added they will implement policy measures to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence. He added the PBoC will prudently resolve the default risk of bonds and of large real estate firms while strengthening the monitoring, warning and prevention of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bond risks. Gongsheng added they will prevent the risk of contagion in stock, bond and FX markets and ensure stable operation of financial markets, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 808bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 702bln net daily injection
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1792 vs exp. 7.3109 (prev. 7.1793)
Chinese mainland tax and natural resource authorities have conducted inspections on key enterprises of Apple-supplier (AAPL) Foxconn (2317 TT) in some cities in accordance with the law, according to Global Times “Experts said that while Taiwan-funded enterprises share the benefits of growth and achieve significant development in the mainland, they should also bear corresponding social responsibilities and play an active role in promoting the peaceful development of cross-Straits ties”. Sources close to Foxconn (2317 TT) suggest reports on China’s probe are unusual and believe Foxconn is possibly singled out for political reasons, according to Reuters
China reportedly plans to hold a twice-a-decade financial work conference on October 30-31st to focus on resolving risks, according to Bloomberg sources.
Chinese Agricultural Ministry says China’s pig supply is still growing and they are not expecting a sharp rise in Q4; says hog market could see even larger losses after the Chinese New Year, according to Reuters.
BoJ officials are reportedly mulling tweaking the settings of YCC “because domestic long-term interest rates are also rising as US interest rates rise, and are approaching the de facto upper limit of 1% set in the July revision.” The topic will be discussed at the next two-day meeting that ends on October 31st, “but there are differences of opinion within the Bank of Japan. Many say they want to carefully monitor trends in wage increases”, according to Nikkei sources. Any decision to change its YCC will largely depend on how markets move leading up to the Oct. 30-31st policy meeting, according to Reuters sources; there is currently no consensus within the BoJ on whether an immediate change to YCC is necessary. Among ideas that could be discussed would be to raise the ceiling for the 10-year JGB yield beyond 1.0%, sources added.
Japan’s Fair Trade Commission is to inspect Google (GOOG) for possible breach of anti-monopoly law, according to Nikkei.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 PTS OR 1.47% //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 259.81 PTS OR 0.83% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.84 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3170 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3205 /Oil DOWN TO 87.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 91,64/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3 CHINA
CHINA/GAZA/ISRAEL
China has now 6 warships in the Middle east. The idiot Biden has caused this mess in global affairs.
(zerohedge)
China Has Up To 6 Warships In Mideast Waters As US Carrier Group Moves Closer To Israel
SATURDAY, OCT 21, 2023 – 07:15 PM
Israel’s military has announced Saturday that it drastically stepped up airstrikes in preparation for its “next stage” of the operation against Gaza, in a statement many see as portending an imminent ground invasion.
“We need to enter under the best possible conditions and this is what we are doing now, as the next stage of war approaches,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari explained after confirming, “from today, we are increasing the strikes and minimizing the danger.”
“We will narrow the risks to our forces over the next stages. This is why we have once again urged residents of Gaza to keep moving south,” he added, in words that Israeli media also took to mean a ground assault is about to happen.Xinhua via AP
One big development from earlier in day was that 20 large trucks loaded with humanitarian aid were for the first time allowed to pass into Gaza through the Rafah crossing from Egypt.
Controversy was then sparked by a New York Times report which claimed the aid convoy was not checked by inspectors before it went into the strip, amid allegations that weapons or ammo could be hidden in the convoy. Israel has denied the report, however:
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories denies that aid entering the Gaza Strip was not checked before going in.
“All of the equipment was checked before going into Gaza,” it says in a statement, noting that the shipment included “only water, food and medical equipment.”
“We emphasize that Israel is able to make sure that nothing goes in or out except the aforementioned,” it adds.
Fears are now growing that Hezbollah could fully enter the conflict, with widespread speculation that the well-armed Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran is ready to mount a full attack on northern Israel if the IDF launches a ground assault on the Gaza Strip. So far there has only been sporadic by intensifying rocket and mortar fire from south Lebanon.
US warships and at least one carrier are in the region (with a second carrier headed that way),as part of “support” operations – but the whole region is on edge given the possibility of a Middle East-wide bigger conflagration.
Worrisomely other major global powers are bolstering their presence, particularly ones which have of late issued severe criticisms of Israel’s largescale aerial assault on Gaza (namely Russia and China), which has killed thousands of civilians – many women and children among them. Russia has been operating jet patrols over Syria, and importantly China now has additional warships in the Mideast region.
Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has confirmed that up to six Chinese warships have been in Middle East waters over the last week.
“The 44th naval escort task force has been involved in routine operations in the area since May and last week spent several days on a visit to Oman, including a joint exercise with the country’s navy, according to the Chinese defense ministry website,” the report says.
While the warships’ presence off Oman is being presented as “routine” – it seems clear the Chinese PLA Navy is going to stick around, given fast-moving events in Israel-Gaza. Days ago, Beijing’s foreign ministry urged all Chinese citizens to make plans to depart Israel while international flights are still available. Are Chinese warships now headed to the Mediterranean?
The Biden White House has reportedly been urging Netanyahu to hold off on the invasion to give more time to negotiate for hostages, after two Americans were released Friday…
This weekend, all eyes will remain on both Gaza and south Lebanon, as the major powers of the US, Russia, and China keep their military assets on the ready. Iran is also no doubt watching events closely, with Iranian officials having in the last days made key visits to regional capitals Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. There’s also fear in Tehran of the potential for an Israeli preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, which Israeli leaders have threatened before.
Half of the $250 billion to $300 billion foreign bond investments since 2019 have exited, and U.S. private equity and venture capital investments in China have fallen by more than 50 percent, according to a JP Morgan report last month.(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)
Foreign direct investment into China in the second quarter of this year reached a 25-year low at $4.9 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 87 percent, according to Chinese official data.
Bloomberg and fDi Markets data on new investment projects—a more telling indicator of whether foreign firms are still investing in the country—show a 40 percent drop, to $74 billion in 2020 from $120 billion in 2019, and an additional 45 percent decline to $41 billion in 2022—the lowest since 2010.
Although financial transactions are easy to track without much lag, it may take years for foreign direct investment data to reflect Western firms’ diversifying away from China.
For this reason, Beijing might be unaware of how bad things really are as far as foreign direct investment, analysts of the Rhodium Group, a leading research firm on the Chinese economy, warned in a recent report.
“Amidst a broader structural slowdown in China’s economy, the delayed reactions could contribute to further losses in productivity and economic growth,” the report stated.
The implied assumption here is that preventing economic losses is a priority for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). However, some China experts challenge this.
“It’s not that Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership hate economic growth—it’s just not a priority,” Derek Scissors, chief economist of research firm China Beige Book and a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank American Enterprise Institute, told The Epoch Times.
“The priority is control over the society, including the economy. So whenever there’s a trade-off between economic control and growth, they choose control,” he said.
“And when we say, ‘Oh, you know, you could be growing faster. Why are you doing these things?’ The answer is obvious: It’s because that’s not their priority.”
Mr. Scissors and other experts told The Epoch Times that overall economic growth isn’t at the top of the agenda for Chinese regime leader Xi Jinping. Instead, China is, by design, going through a paradigm shift in how it interacts with the global economy and is screening and filtering for foreign investors loyal to Mr. Xi.
When U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited China in August, she warned that the country could become “uninvestable” if the unpredictable official behavior, such as raids on U.S. firms, don’t cease. This year, Mintz Group’s Beijing office was raided in March, Bain & Co.’s Shanghai office in April, and Capvision Partners’s offices in multiple cities in May.
The Chinese business environment for U.S. companies wasn’t always like this.
Mike Sun, a U.S.-based businessman with decades of experience advising foreign investors and traders doing business in China, recalled that the first generation of U.S. investors visited mainland China with a pioneering spirit. He spoke to The Epoch Times using an alias to protect his business in China.
If investing in China in those years felt like an adventure, it became a no-brainer the next decade, from 2000 to 2012. One would have been foolish not to invest in China, Mr. Sun recalled.
China had become the “world’s factory” after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. According to World Bank data, its share of global manufacturing value-add rose from 9 percent in 2004 to 22 percent in 2012 and 30 percent in 2022.
But Mr. Xi’s ascension in March 2013 heralded a different decade. In 2015, the leader started his industrial “Made in China 2025” plan, aiming for global dominance in advanced manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and new energy.
To achieve this goal, the regime encouraged large-scale technology theft from Western countries.
In Mr. Sun’s view, Mr. Xi has reversed China’s integration into the rest of the world, a trend that had defined the previous two decades.
“Xi doesn’t want China to be a second Russia,” Mr. Sun said.
Between 2014 and 2016, Russia suffered a financial crisis because of the sharp price decline of crude oil, a major export, and international sanctions as a result of its annexation of Crimea. Since then, Russia’s growth prospects have remained bleak because of challenges in diversifying its main industries and ongoing Western sanctions, according to European think tank Bruegel.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it was hit with more than 13,000 restrictions. The sanctions have severed Russia from advanced technology sectors abroad and forced the nation to resort again to energy commodities trading to sustain its economy growth, according to findings by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.
Mr. Sun said China’s changes have become more apparent in the past two to three years, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, during which Mr. Xi largely completed his consolidation of power.
That’s what Meng Jun, a Chinese entrepreneur, said he experienced.
Mr. Meng had a rubber product business with an annual revenue of $15 million. In 2021, when the rest of the world reopened, his factory in Nanning, the capital of southern China’s Guangxi Province, began to receive orders again. However, he couldn’t resume production because of the regime’s COVID-19 lockdowns.
Initially, he was able to bribe local officials so his factory could run at night while other factories had to remain shut. But later, no one would bend the rules because the officials didn’t want to lose their jobs over the possibility that a COVID-19 case would be traced back to an unauthorized factory operating under China’s zero-COVID policy. He lost millions.
He closed the business last year and left for the United States.
Notably, older Chinese, weathered by the harsh realities of the Cultural Revolution, are leveraging technology and international markets to insulate their assets from domestic economic shocks. Their destination? Japan’s burgeoning real estate sector.
In Osaka’s famous Dotonbori entertainment district, Chinese people are buying up buildings.
“The owner of the building next door is now Chinese, too,” said a woman in her late 70s who has been running a coffee shop for many years in the area. “That one’s probably going to turn into a minpaku business or be rented out to commercial tenants after the renovation work is done.” -Nikkei
“Chinese people are buying up property in Japan so casually as if they were buying a cheap car or something,” one Osaka realtor said recently.
This exodus of capital has not gone unnoticed. President Xi Jinping finds himself in a quandary, caught between the 10th anniversary celebrations of the Belt and Road Initiative and a flood of capital flight by China’s affluent class. The spotlight fell on this economic undercurrent with the recent arrest of two Chinese nationals in Hokkaido, Japan, underscoring the intricate web of unofficial money transfers from China to Japan.
“Agents residing in Japan could be using apps like Alipay to transfer minpaku revenue or real estate transaction referral fees to people in China,” said one property industry rep in Japan’s Kanto region, which includes Tokyo.
Another reason is that rich Chinese can open a path to long-term residency in Japan. Foreign nationals who seek permanent residency can reside in the country under a business manager visa by ‘running or managing a business,’ as one option.
Chinese money is also flowing into properties in the Kansai region, which includes Osaka and Kyoto. According to a referral agent, Chinese buyers are especially keen on what in Japan are assumed as lower-end real estate products. These buyers are focusing on a certain residential area of central Osaka where deals are cheaper than in other areas despite the convenient location. The neighborhood is held in low regard by the surrounding community.
While Japanese investors may be reluctant to buy properties in the area, “Chinese buyers are making snap decisions,” the referral agent said.
Many small houses starting at around 20 million yen each as well as apartments are now up for sale in the neighborhood — and are being snapped up by Chinese buyers. -Nikkei
Consequences?
While Beijing grapples with potential social unrest stemming from economic instability and surging youth unemployment, the property slump appears to be an unsolvable puzzle, at least for now. Macroeconomic projections by Chinese executives and businesspeople are pessimistic at best, foreseeing further depreciation in housing prices.
That said, stringent Chinese regulations on overseas investments and currency export present obstacles, sometimes leading to illegal workarounds and “underground banking” solutions. Despite these challenges, the influx of Chinese capital is significantly influencing property values in these Japanese regions, a trend expected to persist until there is a substantial recovery in China’s property market.
In short, the flight of capital from China to Japan is an unintended offshoot of Beijing’s economic strategies, creating ripples in international real estate markets and potentially altering the economic landscapes of both nations.
END
CHINA/TAIWAN
For your interest…
Foxconn Shares Plunge 10% On Tax Probe As Founder Runs For Taiwan Presidency
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 07:45 AM
Apple’s largest iPhone supplier, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co Ltd, had its shares trading in China plunge 10% on Monday after reports that Chinese mainland tax authorities were investigating the Taiwan-based firm. The probe comes weeks after Foxconn founder Terry Gou announced his run for Taiwan’s presidency.
On Sunday, state media Global Times reported China’s natural resources department conducted on-site investigations into land used by Foxconn factories in Henan and Hubei provinces.
“The relevant departments conducting tax inspections and investigating land use situations of domestic enterprises in China are normal market supervision activities, which are reasonable and legal,” GT said.
What remains unclear is whether the tax probe into Foxconn comes after founder Gou recently announced he’s running as an independent candidate in Taiwan’s presidential election early next year. The election could tremendously impact Taiwan’s relationship with China amid rising tensions.
Gou has previously stated he’s not afraid of Beijing: “If the Chinese Communist party regime were to say ‘If you don’t listen to me, I’ll confiscate your assets from Foxconn,’ I would say ‘Yes, please, do it!'”
Shares of Foxconn trading on the Chinese mainland A-share market plunged by its daily limit of 10% to 14.55 yuan on the news.
Foxconn responded to the probe: “Legal compliance everywhere we operate around the world is a fundamental principle of Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn). We will actively cooperate with the relevant units on the related work and operation.”
Beijing’s continued crackdown on foreign business operations is troublesome and will continue to force Western companies to ‘friendshore‘ to friendlier countries and or ‘reshore’ to North America.
Watch: London Metro Police Threaten People Displaying British Flag With Arrest For “Racism”
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 04:15 AM
In a scene reminiscent of the BLM riot events in the United States, white British residents of London are being admonished and in some cases threatened for displaying British and UK national flags during pro-Palestinian protests. London metro police are warning people carrying these flags that they might be construed as “racist” and that this will be treated as grounds for arrest.
The flag on display in the video is the Cross of Saint George, a flag that represents the UK but is also connected with the crusades of the Middle Ages. Flying UK flags in the face of Muslim protests is seen as anti-immigration sentiment. It should be noted that a majority of the UK and European public has become increasingly anti-migrant in the past decade. Mass Muslim immigration and open border policies have led to an exponential spike in property crime, violent crime and rape, not to mention an increasing drag on European economies.
A two tier legal system has become commonplace in the UK, with migrants given considerable allowances for protest as a protected class, while indigenous English people are more likely to be prosecuted for similar behavior. Multiple incidents in London alone have been reported of pro-Palestinians attacking anyone carrying British or Israeli symbols.
Meanwhile, in nations like Germany, police have taken an opposite attitude towards Palestinian rallies, arresting many participants and instituting restrictions on the display of Hamas related images.
Some argue that this constitutes a violation of free speech and a slippery slope towards Orwellian controls.
END
SWEDEN
SHOCKING!
(Brooke/Remix)
1-In-4 ISIS Brides Returned To Sweden Now Work In Schools; Shocking New Report Reveals
More than a quarter of all ISIS brides returned to Sweden from the Al-Hol camp in Syria are now working with young children in the Swedish education sector, an investigation by the Expressen newspaper has revealed.
Of the 81 women confirmed to have fled Sweden to join the Islamic State at the peak of its power and subsequently repatriated, 21 were found to now be employed in Swedish schools, kindergartens, and asylum centers for kids.
The bombshell report evoked a strong reaction from government ministers who questioned how radicalized individuals who were willing to join a terrorist organization had been permitted to work with young people upon their return to the country.
“This shouldn’t have been allowed to happen,” said Education Minister Lotta Edholm in response to the news.
“It is completely unacceptable that people who are IS terrorists work in the Swedish school system, leisure centers, and the like,” she added.
Edholm confirmed that she had called an urgent meeting with the relevant authorities to discuss the issue, and accused educational facilities of systemic failure in screening its candidates.
“It is the employer’s responsibility to take references, for example, and to have control over what a person has done before being employed. In these cases, it has clearly failed,” she told the Expressen.
It is understood that the Security Police, the Center against Violent Extremism, and several representatives of independent schools and their school boards have been summoned for talks.
Edholm admitted it is likely that some of the former jihadists had taken the jobs with ulterior motives.
“It is surely not a wild guess to believe that at least some of these have taken jobs in the school world to influence young people in this direction,” she said.
Sweden appears to have an issue with extremists falling through the cracks when it comes to employment background checks, particularly within the education sector.
Aid enters: first 20 trucks and then on Sunday 17 trucks
Aid Convoy Enters Gaza From Egypt For 1st Time As Confirmed Hostages Is 210
SATURDAY, OCT 21, 2023 – 11:05 AM
International humanitarian aid deliveries have entered the Gaza Strip for the first time since war broke out after the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack on southern Israel, but the number of trucks able to cross the border has been limited.
Twenty trucks loaded with medicine, food, and medical equipment crossed from Egypt Saturday morning. This as thousands are seeking to leave through the same Rafah crossing but have been prevented. Israeli media is widely reporting Saturday that there are now 210 confirmed hostages being held by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).AFP via Getty Images
“As the trucks made their way through the Rafah border, hundreds of people gathered at the Gaza side, hoping to escape the violence that has beset the Palestinian territory,” Al Jazeera describes. “It was unclear whether anyone would be able to leave.”
Amid continuing Israeli airstrikes on Gaza which have increased to an unprecedented pace (Israeli officials have made mention of 6,000 bombs in the opening six days), some one million Palestinians have moved to the southern half of the strip, while Israeli airpower decimates the north, particularly buildings, infrastructure, and even hospitals.
External water, electricity, and food supplies have long been cut off, and the population is not able to leave what many commentators have called a densely populated “open air prison”.
President Biden while in Tel Aviv last week had called for humanitarian aid to urgently be let into Gaza, even as he said the US fully backs Israel’s “right to defend itself” – and denied that Israel was behind the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing.
The WHO has said of the humanitarian aid trucks entering Gaza: “These supplies are a lifeline for severely injured people or those battling chronic illnesses, who have endured a harrowing two weeks of limited access to care and severe shortages of medicines and medical supplies.”
Previously Israel had asserted aid would be blocked until all hostages were freed, but Washington and international pressure may have led to Israel allowing limited aid in…
Both the US and Israeli officials have previously warned Hamas not to steal or touch the aid, warning that it will be cut off again if this happens.
Meanwhile, since Thursday night there have been widespread reports that Israel’s ground forces have been given a green light by the Netanyahu government to enter Gaza, but this still doesn’t appear to have happened with any degree of full force. The Biden administration is trying to convince Netanyahu to stall further, to buy more time to negotiate hostage releases, particularly after two US citizens from Chicago were freed on Friday with the mediation of Qatar.
Things have continued heating up on the Lebanese border with Hezbollah…
The IDF says it is still training and preparing “for the next phase of the war” ahead of the expected ground assault. The army has announced that troops are “conducting training in accordance with the approved operational plans.”
Currently, there’s an unknown number of American and foreign passport holders still in Gaza, possibly in the hundreds or thousands, and the US has reportedly been seeking arrangements to facilitate their exit. Overhead view of Rafah crossing: Maxar/EPA
“If the border is opened, we do not know how long it will remain open for foreign citizens to depart Gaza,” a US Embassy-State Dept. statement on X has said. The Europeans are working to get their citizens (dual nationals) out as well.
end
SATURDAY
Israel bombs Damascus and Aleppo International airports trying to stop arms from entering Hezbollah
(zerohedge)
Civilian Killed After Israel Again Bombs Damascus & Aleppo International Airports
Early Sunday morning Israeli fighter jets have again targeted Syria’s two international airports of Aleppo and Damascus in their third such attack from Israel in ten days.
Both the airports have once again been knocked out of commission, with one civilian worker killed and another wounded during the strikes on Damascus International Airport.
Syrian state-run SANA confirmed that “At about 05:25 am on Sunday, the Israeli enemy simultaneously carried out an aerial act of aggression with waves of missiles from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea west of Latakia and from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan targeting Damascus and Aleppo international airports,” according to a military source.
The statement added: “The aggression led to the martyrdom of a civilian worker at Damascus Airport, the injury of another worker, in addition to causing material damage to the runways of the two airports, putting them out of service.”
The damage to runways at both airports was significant enough to halt all inbound and outbound flights. Some were diverted to the regional commercial airport in Latakia.
The runways are expected to remain unusable for at least two days; however, the pattern of late has been that as soon as they are repaired, they are attacked again.
Earlier this month, following the Oct.7 Hamas attack on southern Israeli settlements and the music festival, Israel had first attacked Syria’s airports the day before Iran’s foreign minister was expected to arrive in Damascus. This was seen as a message ultimately aimed at Hezbollah and Iran.
But Western press has been silent while Israel’s military without warning or provocation mounts brazen acts of military aggression against Syrian civilian infrastructure.
There has been sporadic fighting along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israel continues bolstering forces there, ahead of a possible full-scale war with Hezbollah. Fears are growing that given Iran’s closeness with the Lebanese paramilitary group, this would liken the chances of war between Iran and Israel, likely also involving Syria.
end
SATURDAY
Hezbollah Risks “Dragging Lebanon Into War” Which Will Be “The Mistake Of Its Life”: Netanyahu
SUNDAY, OCT 22, 2023 – 11:40 AM
A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has announced over the weekend that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks against northern Israel which risks “dragging Lebanon into a war.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday issued the same words in his own warning for Hezbollah, saying it must avoid making “the mistake of its life” by deciding to join the war in partnership with Hamas.
Since the Oct.7 Hamas attack on southern Israel there have been a handful of casualties on either side of the Lebanese border. In at least one instance so far, Hezbollah scored a direct hit on an IDF military vehicle, which likely resulted in Israeli troop deaths and injuries. The group backed by Iran uploaded the video to the internet in order to show off its advanced capabilities.
Israel has in response sent artillery and missiles against Hezbollah positions, as well as against some residential areas of south Lebanon. Americans and other foreigners have been heeding warnings to get out of Lebanon while they still can.
Typically if a broader conflict involving Lebanon opens up, Israel strikes Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport, the only commercial airport in Lebanon, as it did in 2006.
Hawks within Israel and the US want to use this to deliver a ‘death blow’ to Hezbollah, which is by all accounts a more formidable and better-armed force than Hamas in Gaza, as The Guardian underscores, “The Israeli government is coming under growing pressure from security establishment hawks to launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon – but is facing strong opposition from the US, which fears a two-front war would risk igniting a major regional conflict.”
Others want Israel to focus on Gaza, in order not to get bogged down in a conflict that could overwhelm Israel’s military:
But President Biden used his time in Tel Aviv on Wednesday and visits by top US defence officials in the days before, to urge the Israeli leadership not to risk such a pre-emptive strike on the Iran-backed militia, the New York Times reported, and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ultimately cooled on the idea.
Still, Israel is clearly taking measures to prepare for a possible all-out fight on its northern border, at this point having evacuated dozens of communities which lie within two kilometers of the border.
On Sunday, the defense minister confirmed that another 14 towns and villages have been told to evacuate, in addition to the 28 initially ordered to do so last week. “According to the IDF and Defense Ministry, the 14 communities being added to the list are: Snir, Dan, Beit Hillel, She’ar Yashuv, Hagoshrim, Liman, Matzuva, Eylon, Goren, Gornot HaGalil, Even Menachem, Sasa, Tziv’on and Ramot Naftali,” Times of Israel details.
Hezbollah has not only been using anti-tank missiles, but has rolled out with guided missiles amid ongoing fire exchanged between both sides. Israel has lately stood accused of using controversial white phosphorus shells as well.
A broader war would likely bring Iran and Israel into a direct clash, and possibly Syria too. On Sunday Israel attacked Damascus and Aleppo international airports for the third time this month.
The scenario becomes all the more dangerous given the presence of US carrier strike groups in the region, and more recently some six Chinese warships in Mideast waters, watching the situation closely. And Russia has of course long had a strong military presence in Syria.
end
SUNDAY NIGHT
Israeli soldier killed as a small ground force enters GAZA in search of the hostages
(zerohedges)
Hamas & IDF Ground Forces Clash For 1st Time Inside Gaza: Israeli Soldier Killed, Others Wounded
SUNDAY, OCT 22, 2023 – 03:15 PM
Update(1515ET): Hamas has claimed to have repelled a brief Israeli ground incursion, in what marks the first such reported direct ground fight between two sides in Gaza. The Al-Qassam Brigades announced its fighters destroyed two Israeli military bulldozers and a tank as part of an ambush amid the IDF’s conducting ‘limited’ incursions into the strip.
“The soldiers of the Zionist force that fell into the Khan Younis ambush left their vehicles and fled east of the fence on foot,” the Hamas wing said on social media. The IDF as expected did not confirm the claims, saying only that “shots were fired at IDF soldiers operating west of the Gaza Strip security fence, in the area of Kissufim.” Instead, the IDF said only that “An IDF tank struck the terrorist cell who fired at the soldiers” – but did confirm its forces were operating inside Gaza at the time of the incident.
The IDF appears to have begun taking casualties, and the major ground offensive has yet to even begin. Importantly, an IDF statement cited in a fresh Times of Israel update appears to back Hamas’ account of repelling the IDF tank and bulldozers:
A soldier was killed and three others were hurt on Sunday after Hamas attacked troops carrying out an operation on the western side of the Gaza border fence, near the southern community of Kissufim.
The operation was part of the military’s searches for bodies of missing Israelis, and to clear the area for Israel’s upcoming ground offensive.
The Israel Defense Forces said an anti-tank guided missile was fired at an Israeli tank and engineering vehicle, and troops responded by shelling the terror cell. Terror group Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Elsewhere the IDF announced it conducted a very rare airstrike in the West Bank. It said its jets hit a mosque allegedly used as a “Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist compound” in Jenin.
Meanwhile, Israel has issued a formal apology to Egypt for inadvertently hitting an Egyptian border outpost, which injured a number of Egyptian military border guards. Al Jazeera describes:
Shell fragments from an Israeli tank have hit the Egyptian border, injuring at least seven people including several Egyptian border guards, according to the militaries of both countries.
The incident occurred late Sunday, with the Israeli military confirming that it “accidentally” hit the Egyptian position near the border with the Gaza Strip.
Israeli forces have struck the Rafah crossing area multiple times at this point, with Palestinian officials alleging that it is an intention al act.
In Washington, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the US is “concerned about potential escalation” in the Middle East, and confirmed that US assets were deployed to the region to ensure troop safety:
“We’re concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we’re seeing is a — is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region, and because of that, we’re going to do what’s necessary to make sure that our troops are in the right — in a good position, and they’re protected, and that we have the ability to respond,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.”
All eyes continue to be on Israel’s northern border, where the tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah continue ramping up.
* * *
A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has announced over the weekend that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks against northern Israel which risks “dragging Lebanon into a war.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday issued the same words in his own warning for Hezbollah, saying it must avoid making “the mistake of its life” by deciding to join the war in partnership with Hamas.
Since the Oct.7 Hamas attack on southern Israel there have been a handful of casualties on either side of the Lebanese border. In at least one instance so far, Hezbollah scored a direct hit on an IDF military vehicle, which likely resulted in Israeli troop deaths and injuries. The group backed by Iran uploaded the video to the internet in order to show off its advanced capabilities.
Israel has in response sent artillery and missiles against Hezbollah positions, as well as against some residential areas of south Lebanon. Americans and other foreigners have been heeding warnings to get out of Lebanon while they still can.
Typically if a broader conflict involving Lebanon opens up, Israel strikes Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport, the only commercial airport in Lebanon, as it did in 2006.
Hawks within Israel and the US want to use this to deliver a ‘death blow’ to Hezbollah, which is by all accounts a more formidable and better-armed force than Hamas in Gaza, as The Guardian underscores, “The Israeli government is coming under growing pressure from security establishment hawks to launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon – but is facing strong opposition from the US, which fears a two-front war would risk igniting a major regional conflict.”
Others want Israel to focus on Gaza, in order not to get bogged down in a conflict that could overwhelm Israel’s military:
But President Biden used his time in Tel Aviv on Wednesday and visits by top US defence officials in the days before, to urge the Israeli leadership not to risk such a pre-emptive strike on the Iran-backed militia, the New York Times reported, and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ultimately cooled on the idea.
Still, Israel is clearly taking measures to prepare for a possible all-out fight on its northern border, at this point having evacuated dozens of communities which lie within two kilometers of the border.
On Sunday, the defense minister confirmed that another 14 towns and villages have been told to evacuate, in addition to the 28 initially ordered to do so last week. “According to the IDF and Defense Ministry, the 14 communities being added to the list are: Snir, Dan, Beit Hillel, She’ar Yashuv, Hagoshrim, Liman, Matzuva, Eylon, Goren, Gornot HaGalil, Even Menachem, Sasa, Tziv’on and Ramot Naftali,” Times of Israel details.
An active battlefront…
Hezbollah has not only been using anti-tank missiles, but has rolled out with guided missiles amid ongoing fire exchanged between both sides. Israel has lately stood accused of using controversial white phosphorus shells as well.
A broader war would likely bring Iran and Israel into a direct clash, and possibly Syria too. On Sunday Israel attacked Damascus and Aleppo international airports for the third time this month.
The scenario becomes all the more dangerous given the presence of US carrier strike groups in the region, and more recently some six Chinese warships in Mideast waters, watching the situation closely. And Russia has of course long had a strong military presence in Syria.
END
SUNDAY:
Putin Drops Big Hamas Bombshell After Attack On Israel; ‘U.S. Weapons Se…
What did anyone expect from the most controversial and corrupt regime on the planet ?? Wars are profit machines that are greased by blood for profit for many a pocket
Iran opened silos: Dozens of ballistic missiles ready to launch – Israel’s submarine fleet with nuclear missiles set sail – WarNews247
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Everyone is getting ready As if the world needs another economic jolt of force. Apart from whatever disputes exist a Middle East war will affect everything
Hamas & IDF Ground Forces Clash For 1st Time Inside Gaza: Israeli Soldier Killed, Others Wounded
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 05:23 AM
Update(1515ET): Hamas has claimed to have repelled a brief Israeli ground incursion, in what marks the first such reported direct ground fight between two sides in Gaza. The Al-Qassam Brigades announced its fighters destroyed two Israeli military bulldozers and a tank as part of an ambush amid the IDF’s conducting ‘limited’ incursions into the strip.
“The soldiers of the Zionist force that fell into the Khan Younis ambush left their vehicles and fled east of the fence on foot,” the Hamas wing said on social media. The IDF as expected did not confirm the claims, saying only that “shots were fired at IDF soldiers operating west of the Gaza Strip security fence, in the area of Kissufim.” Instead, the IDF said only that “An IDF tank struck the terrorist cell who fired at the soldiers” – but did confirm its forces were operating inside Gaza at the time of the incident.
The IDF appears to have begun taking casualties, and the major ground offensive has yet to even begin. Importantly, an IDF statement cited in a fresh Times of Israel update appears to back Hamas’ account of repelling the IDF tank and bulldozers:
A soldier was killed and three others were hurt on Sunday after Hamas attacked troops carrying out an operation on the western side of the Gaza border fence, near the southern community of Kissufim.
The operation was part of the military’s searches for bodies of missing Israelis, and to clear the area for Israel’s upcoming ground offensive.
The Israel Defense Forces said an anti-tank guided missile was fired at an Israeli tank and engineering vehicle, and troops responded by shelling the terror cell. Terror group Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Elsewhere the IDF announced it conducted a very rare airstrike in the West Bank. It said its jets hit a mosque allegedly used as a “Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist compound” in Jenin.
Meanwhile, Israel has issued a formal apology to Egypt for inadvertently hitting an Egyptian border outpost, which injured a number of Egyptian military border guards. Al Jazeera describes:
Shell fragments from an Israeli tank have hit the Egyptian border, injuring at least seven people including several Egyptian border guards, according to the militaries of both countries.
The incident occurred late Sunday, with the Israeli military confirming that it “accidentally” hit the Egyptian position near the border with the Gaza Strip.
Israeli forces have struck the Rafah crossing area multiple times at this point, with Palestinian officials alleging that it is an intention al act.
In Washington, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the US is “concerned about potential escalation” in the Middle East, and confirmed that US assets were deployed to the region to ensure troop safety:
“We’re concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we’re seeing is a — is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region, and because of that, we’re going to do what’s necessary to make sure that our troops are in the right — in a good position, and they’re protected, and that we have the ability to respond,” he said on ABC’s “This Week.”
All eyes continue to be on Israel’s northern border, where the tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah continue ramping up.
* * *
END.
MONDAY
If Hezbollah hits Israel with long range missile attack on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, the nuclear arsenal under the “tel” in Dimona would be used.
It now looks like Israel will not go into GAZA and they will blockade them until all Hamas are dead from starvation. Israel will offer food and water for the hostages.
(zerohedge)
Would Israel Use Its Not-So-Secret Nuclear Arsenal If The War Expands Beyond Gaza?
SUNDAY, OCT 22, 2023 – 09:00 PM
There is a prevailing expectation for the developing war in the Middle East – If Israel commits to a ground invasion the conflict will expand to the rest of the region. Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen and others will react with a troop buildup or will engage with Israel outright, even with the presence of two US carrier groups. The rhetoric is swirling around what might happen should this chain of dominoes fall, but the most common prediction is that Israel would lose in a multifront war unless US forces intercede.
There is, however, another scenario that most analysts rarely if ever consider. It’s one of the biggest non-secret secrets in the proliferation of armaments – Israel has a nuclear arsenal and has been developing it since the late-1950s.
In 1958 the Eisenhower Administration discovered a secret nuclear reactor in Negev desert of Israel that was disguised as the development of a textile manufacturing plant. Also known as the Dimona nuclear site, the reactor was built with French assistance and utilized heavy water purchased from Norway through a deal brokered by the UK government. The project was designed to experiment with plutonium for use in nuclear weapons.
A Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE 100-8-60 from 8 December 1960) formally determined that “Israel is engaged in construction of a nuclear reactor complex in the Negev near Beersheba” and “plutonium production for weapons is at least one major purpose of this effort.” The SNIE estimated “that Israel would produce some weapons grade plutonium in 1963-64 and possibly as early as 1962.” A significant portion of the SNIE is still classified.
The Israeli nuclear arsenal is now suspected to include hundreds of warheads capable of being delivered by several methods. These include gravity bombs dropped by F-16s, cruise missiles fired from mobile platforms and even submarines with modified cruise missiles. Interestingly, Israel just launching a large new class of submarine this summer called the DolphinI/II which appear to carry much bigger missiles than previous submarines. These subs may in fact be capable of carrying and launching nuclear weapons and could strike almost anywhere in the world.
The most likely use of nuclear weapons by Israel, though, would be as a deterrent to wider war. The international agreement Israel follows requires that they not be the first nation in the Middle East to “introduce” such weapons. The word “introduced” has been interpreted very broadly to mean that Israel will not ever officially admit they have nuclear weapons, thereby spurring an arms race.
That said, a deterrent weapon is not much of a deterrent unless your enemies know you have it. This might explain why Israeli officials have hinted at the existence of nukes in the past, calling them “other capabilities” in discussions on Israeli defense.
The employment of nukes is another matter entirely. It would seem that a number of nations are ready to engage with Israel in direct warfare in the wake of the attack by Hamas, merely waiting for Israel to strike back with a significant ground force. These governments might have forgotten Israel has nukes, or, they might believe that Israel would never dare use them. This is a dangerous assumption.
Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid noted in a discussion on defense last year that Israel has “other capabilities” (i.e. nukes):
“The operational arena in the invisible dome above us is built on defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities, and what the foreign media tends to call ‘other capabilities.’ These other capabilities keep us alive and will keep us alive so long as we and our children are here…”
In other words, Israel intends to use their nuclear capabilities should their civilization come under threat.
Strategically speaking, Israel is well placed for the employment of nukes, given all of its enemies are east or north of the nation’s position, which means Israel would not have to worry about suffering from the radioactive fallout from its own weapons. But, this fallout could affect nations like Iraq and Iran, thereby giving them license to join in the war when they might otherwise abstain. Obviously this would have far reaching implications for the rest of the world, including escalation with nuclear powers such as Russia and China.
The real question is not “if” Israel would use nukes, but under what conditions? How bad does the situation have to get before a nuclear response is assured? Given the rhetoric of previous Israeli leaders on defense, it would not take much. A war on more than one front leading to an uncontrolled breach of Israel’s border could be all the excuse the country needs.
end
and now sure enough this may happen:
Hamas Expected To Release 50 Dual National Hostages “Within Hours”
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 12:35 PM
Update(1235ET): It has become clear at this point that Israel is stalling its ‘imminent’ ground invasion of Gaza in order to buy more time to negotiate for the release of hostages, now numbered at 222 in Hamas/PIJ captivity. As we detailed below, the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to delay, also no doubt on fears that a full assault will trigger a war with Hezbollah in the north. From there, things could spin out of control, also with Russian, Iranian, and Chinese military assets positioned in the region in addition to an American carrier strike group.
The New York Times is reporting Monday morning that Hamas could be preparing to release 50 hostages with dual citizenship, amid negotiations mediated by Qatar:
The U.S. wants more time for hostage negotiations. On Friday, the U.S. secured the release of two American hostages, with Qatar’s help. Israel believes Hamas may release about 50 hostages who are citizens of another country as well as Israel, but a ground invasion could make hostage releases less likely.
A senior Israeli military official said that based on conversations between the United States and Qatar, Hamas could possibly release about 50 dual nationals separate from any broader deal.
The repeated delays also reflect a growing tension between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant, his defense minister, who supports a broad military operation that would also include Hezbollah, the powerful militia in Lebanon.
Al-Arabiya has separately issued a headline saying that the hostages will be released “within hours”.
If this major hostage release does materialize, it is likely to create conditions that stall an IDF ground invasion further.
* * *
Just in; this afternoon:
JUST TWO RELEASED? BIDEN IS A FOOL!
Hamas Frees Two More Hostages, But Negotiations Stall Over Fuel Demands
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 03:19 PM
Update(0350ET): Hamas has announced the release of two more hostages, bringing the total numbered free since they were kidnapped Oct.7 to four. Al Jazeera is reporting, “The latest release of two Israeli captives from Gaza – both women – follows the release late last week of two US citizens.”
The newly freed women have been identified as 79-year old Nurit Cooper and 85-year old Yocheved Lifshitz.
Hamas has reportedly demanded fuel in release for more hostages, given electricity has been out across the strip, and fuel is needed to generate power locally. Israel has reportedly countered that all hostages must be freed for deliveries to be allowed into Gaza. This has predictably led to a breakdown in negotiations, which have been mediated by Qatar:
*end
GAZA deaths surpass 5,000 with the EU calling for a ceasefire:
lt will never happen. USA increases its deterrence force near Israel
(zerohedge)
Gaza Deaths Surpass 5,000 Amid UN & EU Calls For Ceasefire; US Increases ‘Deterrence’ Force Nehe United Nations has revised its grim figure of the rising death toll from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, saying that it has surpassed 5,000 as of Monday. It stands at 5,087. Separately, over 90 Palestinians have been killed in escalating West Bank violence, which over the weekend included Israel launching a rare airstrike on Jenin. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are still holding at least 222 Israeli and foreign captives – a number which has again been revised upward.
European Union foreign ministers are meanwhile gathered in Brussels for an urgent meeting to take up the contentious issue of a ceasefire. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has been calling on world bodies to back a ceasefire, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, “Personally, I think that a humanitarian pause is needed in order to allow the humanitarian support to come in and be distributed, seeing that half of the population of Gaza has been moving from their houses.”Image: Flash90/Times of Israel
Bloomberg is reporting Monday morning that EU leaders are set to endorse a call for a “humanitarian pause”. “The European Council supports the call of UNSG (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres for a humanitarian pause in order to allow for safe humanitarian access and aid to reach those in need,” a draft statement of the summit reads.
But Washington, Israel’s staunchest supporter, is not expected to back a ceasefire – despite reports President Biden has sought for Israel’s military delay the expected imminent ground invasion, in order to buy more time to negotiate the freedom of more hostages.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Sunday news shows made this clear. Margaret Brennan, the host of CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” asked him, “UNICEF says 1,524 children have been killed in the Gaza Strip during these bombings. Why isn’t the US calling for at least a temporary ceasefire?“
Blinken then claimed that children dying on either side has hit him “right in the heart” – but he stopped short of directing any criticism at Israel’s indiscriminate and unrelenting bombing campaign. Instead, he defended it:
“Israel has to do everything it can to make sure this doesn’t happen again,” Blinken said in reference to October 7 Hamas cross-border attack. “Freezing things in place where they are now would allow Hamas to remain where it is and to repeat what it’s done some time in the future. No country could accept that.”
He then cited unverified reports that Hamas has actively blocked Palestinians who are also American citizens from leaving the Gaza Strip. “We’ve had people come to Rafah, the crossing with Egypt. And to date, at least,Hamas has blocked them from leaving, showing once again, its total disregard for civilians of any kind who are — who are stuck in Gaza,” Blinken said. “So really, the ball is in Hamas’ court, in terms of letting people who want to leave, civilians from third countries, including Americans get out of Gaza.”
There are a reported up to 600 Americans stuck in Gaza, with one Palestinian-American telling NBC that “America’s not helping us, Biden’s not helping us, the embassy is not helping us.”
The United States is still bolstering its military presence in Middle East waters, readying for any contingency, even as it’s said to be pressing for furthering back-channel negotiations and delaying an all-out Israeli assault:
It was becoming increasingly clear Monday that the U.S. wants Israel to not only allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza, but for the country to let ongoing negotiations over the release of hostages held by Hamas to continue before it launches a ground invasion of the Palestinian territory. Israel said Monday that Hamas was still holding 222 people captive.
Two sources told CBS News the U.S. has sought to slow Israel’s plans for a ground invasion in order to prioritize the release of hostages and the distribution of aid, a message Washington is said to have been conveying primarily through defense channels.
The Pentagon is calling its moving two aircraft carrier strike groups into regional waters an act of “deterrence”.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had announced Saturday, “Following detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defense posture in the region.” He added: “These steps will bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for U.S. forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.”
The White House has Iran in mind, and its proxies Hezbollah and Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, the latter who days ago tried to fire missiles on Israel, but which were intercepted by a US warship off Yemen’s coast. THAAD and Patriot missile batteries have been sent to Israel.
“This is not what we want, not what we’re looking for. We don’t want escalation,” Blinken said. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it.” And Austin simultaneously affirmed the statements, saying “what we’re seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region.”
It’s clear Hezbollah has held off committing itself to a major war with Israel, which could very well happen the moment the IDF mounts a major ground assault into Gaza.
There’s still been regular exchange of rocket and mortar fire, with Israeli sources reporting Monday that the Iron Dome intercepted an inbound drone from Lebanon via the sea. It was intercepted over Ein Hamifratz, south of Acre.
end
Putin’s message to Biden
Reality
Russia is not kidding. It is time when even fools need to pay attention because no one will shed tears over their demise. What will occur is a new order not made by fools as nations come and go while societies change
July 24, 2023 – Walnut Creek, CA – 37 year old Iraq War Veteran Joseph Kim fought a 54 day battle with testicular cancer, and died on July 24, 2023.
Oct.18, 2023 – Gunnison, CO – 26 year old Dylan Miller was diagnosed with Stage 1 testicular cancer in April 2023, but by Oct.2023 it returned and he has 4 different types of cancer in the recurrent tumor (!)
Oct.17, 2023 – Famington, MI – Ben Cousens was diagnosed with Stage 4 testicular cancer in March 2023 with “innumerable amount of nodules on his lungs” and a “very large mass in his lower back and mass on his testicle”. He has had surgery and chemo and is waiting for next step in treatment
Oct.15, 2023 – Cincinnati, OH – 21 year old Ben Schlaack was diagnosed with aggressive testicular cancer and had surgery. After surgery they discovered it had spread to lymph nodes.
Oct.9, 2023 – Winter Springs, FL – 22 year old Chase Dowling had a benign testicular tumor removed in April 2023. It returned in Oct.2023 and is now metastatic in his lymph nodes. Benign to metastatic in 5 months!
Oct.6, 2023 – Grottoes, VA – Chris Roberts had extensive surgery for testicular cancer in Dec.2022 and was clear of cancer in April 2023. However, in May 2023, he was found to have bone marrow metastases and the cancer came back a different, more aggressive type: embryonic neuroectodermal, with a terminal diagnosis.
Kash Patel Reveals the Nefarious Characters in Government Today Behind Joe Biden’s Disastrous Foreign Policy; e.g. Maher Bitar, Robert Malley, Ariane Tabatabai (see below); deep state installing them
China-Taiwan, Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine etc. etc. etc., all courtesy Biden INC…the world and America has never been as unsafe as today under Biden….NEVER!
The American military is on heightened alert as they monitor any acts of aggression or activity by Iranian-backed groups in the Middle East following the horrific attack on innocent Israelis by the Iran-backed Hamas terror group.
On Wednesday night, multiple missiles were intercepted by the USS Carney, a U.S. Navy destroyer on the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea. The missiles appeared to head toward Israel.
fall to China soon, borders are open to jihadists daily pouring into the US, all Biden policies have placed US in the most perilous position ever, and now Trump leads Biden in all poll; why you think?
China now sends 6 warships to middle east…why? US activates air defense systems across the middle east…why? China on par to double its nuclear arsenal by 2030…why and how? to 1000….
I tell you, take out your guns and clean them, handle safely, manage safely, ensure legal, and go practice shooting…we will need those guns for all enemies, domestic and foreign…the islamists are here…be warned…the Chinese are here, be warned…open Southern border changed the calculus…Biden INC. is not that incompetent, there are malfeasant people working against the US…to harm America. This is where Trump was different, like him or not, he LOVES America and sought to protect her…not take her down.
Why are doctors heads so far up their assess to not tell the truth? money? Is it a starvation from oxygen? Why are health officials at Health Canada, CDC, FDA, PHAC, SAGE, NIH etc. so silent?
‘A 16-year-old high school student in Texas is dead after he collapsed during a cross-country meet. He is another in a string of otherwise healthy high school athletes who have suddenly died during competition.
END
EVOL NEWS
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0608 UP 0.0016
USA/ YEN 149.93 UP .181 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2172 UP 0.0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3719 UP .0013 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 43,77 PTS OR 1,47%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 123.76 PTS OR 0.72%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.84% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 123.76 PTS OR 0.72%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 43.77 PTS OR 1.47%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.84%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 259.81 PTS OR 0.93%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1978.40
silver:$23.22
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 105.92 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3155
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3144)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.06 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.860…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.895% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.032 DOWN 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.103 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 27.31 POINTS or 0.37%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 2.25 PTS OR 0.02%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 34.25 PTS OR 0.50%
Spain IBEX DOWN 33.65 PTS OR 0.37%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 201.78 PTS OR 0.74%
WTI Oil price 87,31 12: EST
Brent Oil: 91.73 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 94.37; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 95//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8750 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6684 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0664 UP 0.0074 OR 74 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2243 UP .0088 or 88 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6310% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .867%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.59 DOWN 0.165 //YEN UP 17 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3692 DOWN .0014 CDN dollar UP14 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.96
Brent OIL: 90.05
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.849%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS PTS to 5.001%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 5.071 %
USA dollar index: 105.43 DOWN 56 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.08 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 94.43 UP 0 AND 90/100 roubles
GOLD 1974,50
SILVER: 22.98
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 190.87 PTS OR 0.58%
NASDAQ UP 43.97 PTS OR 0.30%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.37 DOWN 1.34PTS (06.17)%
GLD: $182.97 DOWN 0.62 OR 0.34%
SLV/ $21.03 DOWN 0.35 OR 1.64%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin & Bonds Bid After ‘Bearish-Bill’ Bails; Black Gold & The Buck Breakdown
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 04:00 PM
I don’t like Mondays…” anymore…
There have been 15 ‘Up’ Mondays in a row for US equities (there hasn’t been a down Monday since before July 4th) until today…
Geopolitically, things did not appear to get seriously worse over the weekend but BoJ YCC-change chatter and Japan’s PM comments sent yields higher overnight. 10Y JGB yields hit 88bps intraday – the highest since Jul 2013…
10Y yield topped 5.00% for the first time since 2007…
Source: Bloomberg
The markets all shifted at that 0945ET tweet from Ackman with the dollar dumping, bitcoin and stocks jumping, and the yield curve flattening. Morgan Stanley said 5% was buying point…
Source: Bloomberg
For a yield-lower close day, today was the largest intraday swing since the regional banking crisis in March…
Equity markets soared as yields plunged, and we reminder readers that today marks the first day of the estimated open Buyback window period (which may have helped accelerate the exuberant BTFD move). Late day headlines on NVDA sparked selling in INTC and sent the majors lower with Small Cap and The Dow the biggest losers with the S&P swinging notably red (as we not.
The drop in yields prompted buying the longest-duration stocks with tech stocks leading and energy lagging (as oil tanked)…
Source: Bloomberg
Growth stocks dramatically outperformed Value stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
News that NVDA would make PC chips smashed INTC lower and took the shine of the major US indices. NVDA was not that moved..
Bitcoin topped $31k…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dumped, erasing half the CPI spike
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices slipped lower today, holding at the highs of the day Israel was attacked…
Gold was down modestly after futs topped $2000 intraday, still dramatically higher since Israel was attacked …
Finally, the sovereign risk of the USA continues to worsen…
Source: Bloomberg
…probably nothing!
Meanwhile, financial conditions continue to tighten…
…now near their tightest since The Fed began this inflation-fighting cycle. “Given that the impact from a tightening in financial conditions on GDP typically takes 1-2 years, the full effect of the severe tightening that took place last year has yet to be felt,” wrote JPM’s Marko Kolanovic.
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
TUCKER CARLSON..
“The Whole George Floyd Story Was A Lie”: Tucker Carlson
FRIDAY, OCT 20, 2023 – 06:50 PM
Tucker Carlson just challenged one of the left’s most sacred of cows – George Floyd, an ex-con who died with an elephant-dose of fentanyl in his system and a history of health issues, while in custody of Minneapolis police on May 25, 2020.
According to Carlson, we need to revisit certain popular narratives, including the circumstances surrounding Floyd’s death – and in particular, inconsistencies between public perception – that Floyd died under the knee of former officer Derek Chauvin, who’s currently serving more than 40 years in state and federal sentences.
“Did, for example, a racist white cop actually murder a man called George Floyd, a civil rights leader in Minneapolis on Memorial Day of 2020? Now we’ve been told that that happened, told it relentlessly for more than three years,” Carlson says, adding “But the question is, did he [Derek Chauvin] actually murder George Floyd? And the answer is, well, no, he didn’t murder George Floyd, and we’re not guessing about that;we know it conclusively thanks to a new court case now underway in Hennepin County, Minnesota.“
The lawsuit, incidental to Floyd and Chauvin, unveiled sworn deposition excerpts from a conversation with County Medical Examiner Andrew Baker, indicating that Floyd’s passing was not due to asphyxiation or strangulation. Instead, factors including drug use and a fatal concentration of fentanyl were significant contributors, reframing his demise from the widely publicized ‘murder’ to an inadvertent overdose.
“In other words, George Floyd, according to the official autopsy, was not murdered. He died instead of what we used to call natural causes, which, in his case, would include decades of drug use, as well as the fatal concentration of fentanyl that was in his system on his final day,” Carlson continued – laying out how the initial George Floyd storyline was endorsed and amplified by mainstream media, and ignited nationwide protests, intensive racial discourse, and movements like Black Lives Matter.
These changes encompassed police defunding efforts, corporate hiring practices, and the institutionalization of new cultural observances like Juneteenth.
Carlson interviewed Vince Everett Ellison, author of “Crime Inc.” – who discussed the possibility of orchestrated degradation and victimization within the Black community by political entities, particularly the Democratic party.
Ellison suggests that the glorification of figures like George Floyd represents an insidious strategy to perpetuate a certain stereotype of blacks who are reliant on the system, thereby solidifying a voting base and maintaining a form of socio-political control.
Drawing parallels between movements like BLM and historical or international groups used for political leverage, Ellison’s commentary insinuates that these organizations could be modern iterations of ‘domestic militias’ utilized by the Democrats for social manipulation and power consolidation. The unsettling comparison of BLM to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, or the historical utilization of the Ku Klux Klan, paints a grim picture of political machinations where civil unrest is a tool rather than a byproduct.
“The Democratic party uses BLM and Antifa as theirs, throwing the rock and hiding the hand. Of course, they’re going to do it; they’ve always done it, even at the beginning, they used the Ku Klux Klan,” he said.
“Worse Is To Come” – Home Sales Slide Far From Over As Goldman Sees “Sustained Higher Mortgage Rates”
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 02:40 PM
Existing home sales plunged back below 4mm SAAR last month for the first time since the foreclosure crisis in 2010. Outside of the fallout from the Great Financial Crisis, home sales are the lowest in 27 years…
But, if Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and his team are right, worse is to come.
Meanwhile, prices are not reflecting the sales pressure – doubling relative to sales in the last four years… just like they did into 2008’s peak…
Goldman’s strategists expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, warning that these sustained higher rates will have the most pronounced impact in 2024 on housing turnover.
Essentially all borrowers have mortgage rates well below current market rates, and even a sharp decline in mortgage rates will leave a historically large share of homeowners with a financial disincentive to move…
Almost 90% of homeowners have rates more than 2pp below and (over 60% have rates more than 4pp below) current rates..
The combination of mortgage borrowers refinancing at low rates en masse either last cycle or early in the pandemic and the high current level of mortgage rates has created a significant implicit financial cost for a substantial share of households that otherwise might consider moving, as buying a new home would require them to prepay their current mortgage and take out a new mortgage at a significantly higher rate.
Goldman therefore expects this “lock-in” effect to push existing home sales even lower in the coming months and to limit any rebound next year: we expect existing home sales to decline to 3.8mn in 2024, the lowest level since the early 1990s.
“The slide in home sales is far from over,” says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.
“Keep in mind that recorded sales of previously owned homes are based on contracts signed a month or two earlier. Since those contract signings, mortgage rates are up another half-percentage point and it’s doubtful that the squeeze on affordability from higher rates has been offset by declines in home prices.”
With few transactions happening, current prices may be illusory.
Hatzius’ team suggests home prices are likely to decline this winter before potentially rebounding only modestly in 2024.
The projections of Goldman’s housing model (that jointly considers supply, demand, affordability, and home prices), suggests that home prices are likely to continue increasing rapidly for the next couple of monthly readings – owing in part to the Case-Shiller home price index’s delayed release time and three-month moving average design mean – before slowing sharply and turning negative into year-end.
Thereafter, our model projects a rebound to below-trend home price growth (Dec. 2024 year-over-year: +1.3%) as rates decline modestly but remain at elevated levels.
The good news – this will likely weigh on inflation signals, help The Fed make the case for being done (but as we noted above – even a relatively large decline in rates will not make much difference to the current cohort of homeowners).
Goldman expects shelter inflation to slow to +0.42% by December 2023 and +0.31% by December 2024, implying a decline in the year-on-year rate to 4.1%, as the gap between new- and continuing-lease rents closes further.
The bad news – as Bloomberg’s John Authers concludes: “The constipated market, with the sudden surge in mortgage rates taking many houses off the market, will have to resolve itself somehow. US consumers have stayed remarkably enthusiastic and active. That might be hard for them to maintain if and when house prices correct.“
I know that there is a lot going on in the world right now, but I just had to write about what is happening to our banks.
High interest rates and chaos in the real estate industry are combining to put an enormous amount of pressure on our largest financial institutions. As a result, banks are getting very tight with their money, they are closing down hundreds of branches, and they are laying off thousands of workers. We are in the early stages of the worst financial crisis since 2008 and 2009, and I fully expect conditions to get even worse in the months ahead.
Major US banks are continuing to close branches across the US, leaving an increasing number of Americans without access to basic financial services.
Bank of America axed 21 branches in the first week of October, according to a bulletin published by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Friday.
Wells Fargo shuttered 15, while US Bank and Chase reported closing nine and three respectively.
In total, some 54 locations had either closed or were scheduled to close between October 1 and October 7.
That is just one week!
Of course bank branches have been closing at a frightening pace for quite some time now.
Banks are closing branches faster than they’re opening new ones. U.S. banks closed over 3,000 branches last year while opening just 1,000. JPMorgan Chase led in branch closures last year, shuttering 144 branches, while opening 133. The trend will likely continue as banks face staunch competition for deposits and younger customers from online banks, fintech firms and Big Tech.
Unless you live under a rock, I am sure that you have noticed this happening in your own local area.
For many Americans, a “trip to the bank” is no longer just a few minutes away.
The largest American banks have been quietly laying off workers all year — and some of the deepest cuts are yet to come.
Even as the economy has surprised forecasters with its resilience, lenders have cut headcount or announced plans to do so, with the key exception being JPMorgan Chase, the biggest and most profitable U.S. bank.
Pressured by the impact of higher interest rates on the mortgage business, Wall Street deal-making and funding costs, the next five largest U.S. banks have cut a combined 20,000 positions so far this year, according to company filings.
The banking industry is in trouble.
Big trouble.
And this is happening at a time when economic conditions are steadily deteriorating.
In fact, we just learned that the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 18 months in a row…
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023).
“The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”
At this point, nobody can claim that the economy is headed in the right direction.
During the first nine months of this year, the number of commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies was 61 percent higher than it was during the same period a year ago…
A wide array of U.S. businesses have struggled this year. In the first nine months of 2023, commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies have soared 61% year over year to 4,553, according to Epiq Bankruptcy, which provides U.S. bankruptcy filing data.
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 15.4% lower compared with September 2022.
This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession, when the market was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. As a comparison, just two years ago, when mortgage rates hovered around 3%, home sales were running at a 6.6 million pace. The average rate on the 30-year fixed today is right around 8%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Speaking of home foreclosures, they are up 34 percent compared to the same time in 2022…
Home foreclosures are on the rise as Americans continue to grapple with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
That is according to a new report published by real estate data provider ATTOM, which found that foreclosure filings – which includes default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – surged 28% in the third quarter to 124,539.
Foreclosures are up 34% from the same time one year ago.
So even though things are not great now, enjoy these last few days of relative stability while you still can, because war in the Middle East will soon plunge the entire global economy into a state of great turmoil.
END
subprime auto loan delinquency erupts again, reaching highest rate on record
(zerohedge)
Subprime Auto Loan Delinquency Erupts, Reaching Highest Rate On Record
SUNDAY, OCT 22, 2023 – 09:20 AM
We have been dutifully tracking the auto sector, considered a leading economic indicator, to pinpoint the arrival of the crushing auto loan crisis and even the possibility of the onset of the next recession. In late January, we cited data from Fitch that revealed consumers are falling behind on auto payments – the most since the peak of the Great Financial Crisis. Fast forward nine months later, to September, that rate just hit the highest level in nearly three decades.
In what could be the beginning innings of the auto loan crisis, something we called a “perfect storm” earlier this year, Bloomberg cites new Fitch data:
The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994, according to Fitch Ratings.Source: Bloomberg
“The subprime borrower is getting squeezed,” said Margaret Rowe, senior director with Fitch.
Rowe said, “They can often be a first line of where we start to see the negative effects of macroeconomic headwinds.”
What has been widely known is the consumer has been funding car purchases with even more debt to afford record-high prices, with many monthly payments exceeding $1,000. Factor in the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in a generation, elevated inflation, and the restarting of the federal student loan payments, tens of millions of consumers are under immense pressure this fall.
An endless stream of retailers, such as Walmart, Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Kohl’s – all of whom have recently warned about a consumer slowdown. Banks have also raised concerns, such as Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who believes the consumer is ‘falling off a cliff.’ And the latest high-frequency data from Barclays shows card spending has taken another leg down.
As delinquencies rise, Cox Automotive forecasts that 1.5 million vehicles will be seized this year, up from 1.2 million in 2022. That’s still below pre-pandemic levels, but the numbers could soar if a recession materializes in 2024.
Bloomberg cited Bankrate data that shows consumers with excellent credit can lock in an average interest rate of around 5.07% for a new car and 7.09% for a used vehicle. Those with bad credit should expect a new car rate of 14.18% and 21.38% for a used car.
The perfect storm we described earlier this year is unfolding.
end
Trump is ahead in all swing states and also leads among young voters. The Democrats are now very worried
(zerohedge)
Bidenomics Rejected: Trump Ahead In Swing States, Leads Among Young Voters
SATURDAY, OCT 21, 2023 – 08:25 PM
Less than 13 months from the 2024 election, a new set of polls has delivered alarming news for backers of incumbent President Joe Biden, with voters in swing states and even younger voters giving the edge to former President Donald Trump. The key driver: voter rejection of Bidenomics.
According to a Morning Consult/Bloombergpoll, Trump is up four points among voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On a state-by-state breakdown, Trump has the upper hand in five of them. He’s tied with Biden in Michigan, while Biden leads in Nevada by 3. via Bloomberg/Morning Consult; poll taken Oct 5 to Oct 10
In 2020, Biden received the electoral votes of all of those states except for North Carolina, which Trump won by 1.3%. If all other states stayed in their 2020 columns, Trump would need to take four of the seven swing states to return to the White House.
Swing-state voters say the economy outweighs any other factor in their voting decisions, and they’re hugely disappointed in the Biden-era economy. 49% say Biden policies have been bad for the economy, compared to 26% who see them as a positive.
“Almost twice as many voters in the swing states are saying that Bidenomics is bad for the economy, as opposed to good for the economy, which is a really startling fact if you’re the Biden campaign,” said Morning Consult pollster and vice president Caroline Bye. Bye couldn’t help but reveal her own bias, declaring, “Biden is not getting any credit for work he’s done on the economy.”
It’s not just the economy that’s dragging Biden down; swing-state voters have higher confidence in Trump in 10 out of 16 policy areas. Only where “climate change” is concerned does Biden outperform Trump by more than 10 points. Interestingly, they give a solid edge to Trump on “guns.” Via Bloomberg/Morning Consult
The independent campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is a wild card. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Biden leads Nevada by three points in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, but loses by three when other parties are included. On the other hand, Trump’s supporters are much more likely than Biden backers to view Kennedy favorably — by a whopping 46% to 29% margin.
Two other polls yielded more bad omens for Biden, particularly in regard to key Democratic constituencies. An Emerson College poll found voters between 18 and 29 favor Trump by 2.3%, while CNBC‘s All-America Economic Survey found sagging support for Biden among young people, blacks and Latinos.
Democratic pollster Jay Campbell called those results “very troubling” for Biden. Noting that those three constituencies are among the hardest hit by economic conditions, he said, “You start to think that maybe they’ve run out of patience, and it’s starting to show through in their decreasing regard for the president.”
The CNBC survey found Biden’s disapproval rating at a personal-worst 58%, driven by a 63% disapproval rating on his handling of the economy — another low for this presidency. Respondents favored Trump in the 2024 contest by a 43% to 38% margin.
At PredictIt, the online, real-money prediction market where shares betting on the right outcome pay $1, speculators are still favoring Biden. However, the gap between the Biden and Trump contracts has narrowed from 18 cents on Aug 18 — in the wake of Trump’s indictment in Georgia — to just 3 cents on Thursday.
END
About time!!
Coca Cola removes its black lives matter support
(zerohedge)
Blowback: Coca-Cola Quietly Removes Black Lives Matter Support On Its Website
Coca-Cola appeared to delete a paragraph on its website that supported Black Lives Matter, coming as Black Lives Matter drew controversy for backing Hamas.
“Earlier this month, Sprite announced a $500,000 contribution to the Black Lives Matter Global Network in a social post committing action in the fight for racial justice. On June 28, the brand debuted a new TV commercial during the 2020 BET Awards telecast showcasing Black America’s resilience, excellence and optimism. The 60-second spot titled ‘Dreams Realized’ emphasizes Sprite’s commitment to making young Black creators’ dreams a reality and to inspire the next generation to do more and dream bigger,” an archived version of the Coca-Cola-owned Sprite website page says.
A current version of the web page omitted that paragraph, suggesting the beverage giant deleted it. It appears changes were made to the web page on Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, according to Archive.org records. The Epoch Times has reached out to Coca-Cola, which has not addressed the matter publicly, for comment on Sunday.
It came after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) made reference to the Coca-Cola website and tied its support of Black Lives Matter to backing Hamas, a U.S. State Department-designated terrorist group that carried out multiple attacks on Israel earlier this month that left hundreds of civilians—including children—dead. Israel has responded by embarking on a bombing campaign of Gaza, where Hamas operates.
“CAUGHT RED-HANDED. [Coca-Cola] deletes its support for BLM. One screenshot is of [Coca-Cola’s] website before BLM supported Hamas parachuting into a concert to kill Israeli civilians,” Mr. Cruz wrote on social media website X. “The other is from this morning. Editing your website is not enough. Americans DEMAND an apology.”
On his podcast, “The Verdict,” he criticized Coca-Cola and other companies days before that for their support of Black Lives Matter in the wake of the Hamas attacks.
Last week, he also made reference to the corporate support in another post on X: “For every corporate donor who sent millions to BLM—including Amazon, Apple, BlackRock & Bank of America—do you regret supporting such a virulently antisemitic organization?”
It came after a Black Lives Matter group wrote on X—days after the Hamas attacks—that it backed the group and Palestinians.
“As Black people continue the fight to end militarism and mass incarceration in our own communities, let us understand the resistance in Palestine as an attempt to tear down the gates of the world’s largest open-air prison,” BLM Grassroots wrote on Oct. 9. “As a radical Black organization grounded in abolitionist ideals, we see clear parallels between Black and Palestinian people. For lasting peace to come, the entire apartheid system must be dismantled.”
“Do you support Black Lives Matter’s Marxist agenda supporting Hamas? Are you antisemites? Do you support that we need to end Israel?” the Texas senator asked.
Around the same time, a Black Lives Matter chapter in Chicago posted a more supportive backing of Hamas. It stated, “I stand with Palestine,” and included an image of a parachuting individual with the Palestinian flag. That post was later deleted.
There have been reports and video footage of Hamas terrorists using parachutes and other airborne devices in a series of surprise attacks on Oct. 7.
After deleting the post, the group wrote that “we sent out [messages] that we aren’t proud of. We stand with Palestine [and] the people who will do what they must to live free. Our hearts are with the grieving mothers, those rescuing babies from rubble, who are in danger of being wiped out completely.”
If you were wondering why the pro-Palestinian protests in the US today are starting to look a lot like the BLM riots of 2020, it’s probably because they are made up of the same people with the same political agenda. Minnesota has one of the most concentrated Muslim populations in the US, but it is also a well-known Democrat stronghold. Palestinian protests across the country are predominantly manned by far-left groups like Antifa seeking to attach themselves to minority issues as an excuse to wreak havoc. The political alliance is perhaps one of the most unhinged in recent memory, given that Muslim Sharia culture runs contrary to the majority of progressive “beliefs.”
The protest tactic of blocking major traffic routes and then mobbing any vehicles that try to sneak past has been used by leftists regularly over the past few years. When people defend themselves by pushing through the mob, the protestors then claim they were “attacked” by the driver.
Protesters/rioters blocked the Irene Hixon Whitney Bridge that runs over I-94 in Loring Park on Sunday afternoon. A video posted by X user “Unicorn Riot” shows the mob deliberately blocked traffic while a white sedan was moving forward at slow speeds while being attacked by rioters.
Unicorn Riot claims the occupant in the white sedan was “an alleged counter-protester who drove into the crowd, possibly firing a gun or firecracker while driving away.”
However, Unicorn Riot used the phrase “alleged counter-protester” as X user “End Wokeness” showed a video of the occupant as an elderly white man. The video shows the man attempting to flee the chaos produced directly by the rioters illegally shutting down the roadway.
End Wokeness said one of the rioters was “MN City Council candidate Zach Metzger,” who “instructed his followers to find the old man.” However, the council candidate deleted the post, but End Wokeness saved it.
End Wokeness pointed out Zach Metzger was also in the original George Floyd riots that left blocks of Minneapolis destroyed by arson.
With little to no intervention by local police to enforce the law and stop road obstructions, leftist protesters are given license to try the method again and again without fear of arrest. Already, mainstream media sources are referring to the event in Minneapolis as an “attack on peaceful protestors,” though footage does not seem to show any violence initiated by the driver. Protestors then chased after the apparently confused elderly man and attacked his vehicle again, making him turn back and race through an intersection to escape.
END
USA imploding before our eyes
(zerohedge)
UAW Hits Stellantis Truck Plant With Strike, Sparking Production Shutdown
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 11:00 AM
The United Auto Workers union has hit Stellantis’ largest and most profitable plant with a labor action, causing production at the facility to come to a screeching halt.
UAW wrote in a statement that 6,800 union members at the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in Michigan walked off the job and are joining the rest of the striking union on the picket lines, demanding increased pay and benefits in a new four-year labor contract.
“The workers who make Stellantis’ best-selling RAM 1500 trucks are joining the unprecedented Stand Up Strike at all three of the Big Three automakers. The move comes just days after UAW President Shawn Fain detailed the current proposals across the automakers, highlighting the shortcomings of Stellantis’ current offer,” UAW said.
The union said, “Stellantis has the worst proposal on the table regarding wage progression, temporary worker pay and conversion to full-time, cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), and more.”
Last Friday, UAW boss Shawn Fain did not expand strikes at Detroit’s Big Three automakers. He said, “There is more to be won,” adding, “These are already record contracts, but they come at the end of decades of record decline. So it’s not enough to be the best ever, when auto workers have gone backward over the last two decades. That’s a very low bar.”
Despite those comments, Fain did not mention a report from Bloomberg earlier Friday that the union lowered its pay hike demand to 25%.
Today’s expansion of strikes means the union has more than 40,000 members holding firm on the picket lines.
Earlier this month, General Motors activated a multi-billion dollar credit line from JPMorgan Chase Bank, indicating the automaker might be bracing for prolonged strikes.
END
Especially after today: who is Joe Biden working for?
“We are at an inflection point, a threshold, where weak, brittle, effete personality structures are a threat to human civilization.”
– JD Haltigan on X
The Dead Rise on John Street
You might have noticed that the massive investment in Halloween yard shrines by families growing broke in America reflects the ghoulish convergence of malevolent events undermining and overtaking what used to be normal life in this land.
Nothing is normal anymore. The groaning mummies, howling werewolves, and shrieking skeletons are trying to tell us something.
The message might be: detach from reality long enough and death comes creeping ’round your door.
You see where consensual madness has gotten us? Believe enough things that are not true and nemesis comes roaring in, all fangs and claws, to gleefully shred you. So. Maybe it’s time to stop believing things that are not true.
Start with the first principle of US life in our time: that anything goes and nothing matters. This proposition has ruled for as long as most of us can remember. Consequence was exiled on Main Street so you can get away with anything now — until you discover that, somehow, everything is broken.
Your livelihood is broken. Your community is broken. Your household is broken. Your car is broken. Your children are broken. Your health is broken. Your faith is broken. Your country is broken.
Here’s a first principle worth considering: court death and it will oblige you. Granted, there is a certain libido for nonexistence in the human psyche because life is so hard sometimes that you yearn to be relieved of it. But not everyone in America seeks to walk that way. Probably fewer than half of us. So why do we allow that other half to drag us to the bone orchard? Do you see what it means to get your mind right when times get hard and the path is uncertain?
Everybody knows that a ghoul was installed in the now-haunted White House. And everybody knows that the method of his installation was a fraud, a gigantic falsehood. The catch is that the fewer than half of us liked it that way, they celebrated it, did a victory dance, and then rubbed it in with prosecutions against the rest of us who saw exactly what happened and didn’t like it. They acted like it didn’t matter what you saw.
They tried to control the transmission of ideas and sentiment about these matters by placing half the CIA and the FBI on Facebook, Twitter, and Google. Nice try, but only cads and fools think that you can stuff reality in a black box, lock it up, and throw away the key.
Reality has Houdini-like powers to escape because reality is true magic. Reality is the ultimate super-power.
Reality is not some asshole in a spandex suit with a cape and a mask. Reality is the white light that reveals the world.
Reality is telling us that the war project in Ukraine started by the neocon pseudopod of our Deep State blob is not working out.
The fiasco could not be more rank. Instead of weakening Russia, it crippled the USA. V. Putin is not the enemy of Western Civ, he’s one of its last remaining defenders. Was it not in everyone’s interest that for seventy-five years Ukraine existed as an inert borderland, making trouble for nobody, itself especially? Could we not respect that reality and leave it alone?
Reality is telling us that Israel refuses to be massacred out of existence. Israel will defend itself with us or without us.
It’s possible they’ll manage it intelligently. You might ask: will we defend ourselves against the same antagonist that wants to wipe all of Western Civ off the face of the earth, us included? Notice that your own will to survive is being subverted by useful idiots while warrior cadres of mysterious origin pour across the Mexican border. Everyone knows it’s a clear and present danger and who will move to stop the invasion? Do we have to wait for a catastrophe?
Who is “Joe Biden” working for? Wouldn’t you like to know? Not much is left of him in mind or body, though he made a fortune in a short span of years for doing effectively nothing but retailing his favor before landing so uncannily in the seat of power. The truth about it is all over the place now and might provoke constitutional procedures that will induce the de-platforming he likely deserves. All that is going to unspool now whether The New York Times pays attention to it or not, and no matter what the fewer than half of us want to pretend about the evil legerdemain that put him where he is.
The extended festival of ghouls and dancing skeletons comes to an end in a week with the Day of the Dead, also known as All Saints Day. That is your cue to stop celebrating wickedness for its own sake. Remember, we are the living. While we are here, we have an obligation to those who come after us. The dead can take care of themselves. It is possible to have faith in ourselves. Even as the days grow shorter, the people of this land can gather in the remaining light instead of worshipping the darkness. A new season will be upon us soon. Hark, the herald angels sing!
On Wednesday, FreightWaves reported that Convoy was winding down operations. Earlier in the morning, I had started writing an article about liquidity issues that some freight brokerages are having or will have. Then the news broke that one of the most iconic freight brokers to come out of the venture era of freight tech funding would fail on the same morning.
Convoy was a victim of a violent commoditized industry that is facing one of its deepest recessions in decades and a sudden change in investor appetite from risk to unit economics.
While many articles will be written in the coming weeks about Convoy, unfortunately, it won’t be the only significant broker to suddenly shut down.
This is unusual.
After all, anyone who has been in trucking knows that asset-based carriers face imminent failure frequently. However, it has been rare for freight brokers to suddenly shutter. Compared to trucking fleets, freight brokers have a lot more flexibility in their business model to adjust to changing market conditions
But we will see many more sizable freight brokers shut down suddenly. And the reason is a significant change in the financing climate.
In an article earlier this week, I wrote about the growth and proliferation of the freight brokerage industry over the past decade. Freight brokers have moved from a small cottage industry to one of the most important forces in freight. A large part of FreightWaves’ success has been driven by the increasing importance that freight brokers play in the industry.
After all, freight brokers are the day traders of the freight market, and as such need up-to-date information about the freight market.
FreightWaves was created at a time when freight brokerages morphed from a small part of the industry to a dominant force. FreightWaves owes a lot of our success to this reality.
But much of the brokerage industry’s growth has been fueled by financing structures, such as venture capital (VC) and asset-based lines of credit. The appetite for venture funding of freight brokerages has been dead for over a year and is partially responsible for the reason Convoy has failed. VC investors have woken to the reality that freight brokerage is not venture-investible.
For those brokers that didn’t use VC funding but financed growth through alternative lenders, the story is different, but the results are the same. These alternative lenders are common across the freight market. Trucking companies use factoring companies to finance their receivables on a transactional basis. Brokers do the same; however, it is often not on a per-transaction basis, but rather on a portfolio of receivables.
Receivables are pledged as collateral against lines of credit, described as an “asset-based line of credit,” or ABL, and this enables a brokerage to grow quickly without having to wait for shippers to pay.
If the market and unit economics are expanding, it’s a very efficient way to grow. For traders in the stock market, it can be compared to using margin to purchase stocks.
If a stock position is increasing in value, you gain a bigger line of credit. The danger, of course, is if you use the line of credit to buy more of the same stock. If that stock collapses, you are in real trouble because your losses will only accelerate on the downside.
The same thing is happening in the brokerage sector. Freight brokers went out and borrowed against their AR portfolios to fuel growth, racking up debt at cheap rates. When the Fed changed the cost of capital, that debt became more expensive. That in and of itself isn’t the problem.
But something else happened to the trucking market.
The average transaction size of loads also collapsed. Loads that generated $3,000 in revenue two years ago now ship for only $1,500 in revenue. Do enough of those transactions and the size of the credit facility starts to collapse.
That isn’t necessarily a problem if brokers had held onto the capital when times were good. But it does become a problem when that capital is used for more growth or to make other purchases. For Convoy, it was to fuel growth. For other brokers, it could be for personal uses like homes, cars, airplanes, yachts, etc.
The capital is now spent, but the debt is still there. And finance companies, aware of the risks of freight volatility, tried to protect themselves by placing covenants into these lines of credit, often benchmarked against margins.
As margins compressed, the covenants were violated, and the financiers became nervous. Now some of them are facing a dilemma: continue to fund the line of credit or call it in. In Convoy’s case, it appears the line of credit was called in.
In recent weeks, FreightWaves has been hearing from sources that a number of midsize freight brokers are in financial trouble. One CEO of a large broker that had discussed potential transactions told me the risk was most pronounced in brokerages that generate $50 million to $250 million in revenues.
A CEO of a major bank with exposure to trucking told me he had three large brokers that are in dire financial shape in their portfolio and he expects them to shutter in the coming months.
These firms have used receivables funding to fuel growth. However, due to collapsing market fundamentals, they have breached their covenants.
The banks that financed these asset-based loans have been trying to play matchmaker for some of these brokers, but their patience is starting to wear thin.
Unfortunately, it will get worse.
The most brutal part of the cycle for a freight broker isn’t a soft market.
It’s when the freight market starts to turn up and spot rates improve, while contract rates remain pressured. This squeezes brokerage margins.
In other words, the spread between spot and contract narrows. When that happens, it hurts the take rate for freight brokers.
A large percentage of contract rates get established during bid season. If conditions are soft at the time of bids, contract rates will fall.
Bid season traditionally starts in mid-October and ends in February. Freight rates have been very soft all year, and there has been no improvement as bid season gets underway.
The overcapacity in the market has kept both spot and contract rates low — on some lanes, as low or lower than in 2019. These conditions will be a significant drag on contract rates during the 2023-2024 bid season. We foresee contract rates dropping further as carriers realize “it’s lower for longer.”
Spot rates, currently at levels where carriers lose money on many of the miles they run, are unlikely to fall much further.
This will compress brokerage margins, exacerbating any financial struggles that brokerages may have.
Therefore, I expect we will see some frantic deals in freight brokerage happen over the next few months as healthier players take out the weaker ones.
I also expect bankruptcies for those firms that are under significant financial stress. Bankruptcies are common in trucking, but it’s usually asset-based carriers that go under.
This cycle could be the first time we see a number of bankruptcies impact the brokerage market.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
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USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
House Investigators Reveal $200,000 “Direct Payment To Joe Biden”
FRIDAY, OCT 20, 2023 – 04:40 PM
The House Oversight Committee on Friday revealed a direct payment to President Joe Biden which appears to have been laundered through his brother James.
As the oversight Committee notes in a release;
In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator. According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”
On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account. On the same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden.
Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said in a statement (emphasis ours);
This summer, Joe Biden said: “Where’s the money?”
Well, we found some.
We’re still digging into evidence subpoenaed from bank accounts belonging to Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, and James and Sara Biden – the brother and sister-in-law of the President.
A document that we’re releasing today raises new questions about how President Biden personally benefited from his family’s shady influence peddling of his name and their access to him.
Bank records obtained by the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability have revealed a $200,000 direct payment from James and Sara Biden to Joe Biden in the form of a personal check.
Here is some important context about this check we’ve obtained in our investigation:
In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.
According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”
On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account.
And then on the very same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden.
James Biden wrote this check to Joe Biden as a “loan repayment.” Americore—a distressed company—loaned money to James Biden who then sent it to Joe Biden.
Even if this was a personal loan repayment, it’s still troubling that Joe Biden’s ability to be paid back by his brother depended on the success of his family’s shady financial dealings.
Some immediate questions President Biden must answer for the American people:
Does he have documents proving he lent such a large sum of money to his brother and what were the terms of such financial arrangement?
Did he have similar financial arrangements with other family members that led them to make similar large payments to him?
Did he know that the same day James Biden wrote him a check for $200,000, James Biden had just received a loan for the exact same amount from business dealings with a company that was in financial distress and failing?
The House Oversight Committee will soon announce our next investigative actions and continue to follow the money.
The bank records don’t end here.There is more to come.
Former president Donald Trump has weighed in on what congressional investigators say is a $200,000 “direct payment” made to President Joe Biden, unearthed as part of a Republican probe into the Biden family’s business dealings and alleged schemes of influence peddling.
President Trump took to social media on Saturday, commenting on what some Republicans say is smoking gun evidence that President Biden was directly involved in his family’s business affairs.
“Check please,” President Trump wrote in the post, which featured a screengrab of Newsmax anchor Greg Kelly holding a facsimile of a personal check for $200,000 made out to “Joseph R. Biden Jr.”
The check, obtained and released to the public by Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) as part of a House Oversight Committee probe into President Biden, states that the money was for a “loan repayment.”
Mr. Comer, who has demanded that President Biden provide documentation proving that money was indeed a loan repayment and not something else, has suggested that this direct payment may be the strongest evidence yet that the president may have been directly involved in his family’s business dealings.
“Even if this was a personal loan repayment, it’s still troubling that Joe Biden’s ability to be paid back by his brother depended on the success of his family’s shady financial dealings,” Mr. Comer said in a statement.
Lawyers for Americore health told a court in July last year that the president’s brother, James Biden, received $600,000 in loans from the healthcare company “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden’, could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”
A copy of the check was obtained as part of the House Oversight Committee’s long-running investigation into the president and his family’s business affairs.
The committee earlier released over 20 examples of evidence tying the president to his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings, with the check being the latest piece of evidence in the Republican probe.
White House spokesperson Ian Sams has dismissed the check as a “new distraction” and another of the “silly political stunts” of Republicans meant to damage President Biden politically.
While President Trump has so far confined his remarks to two words, “Check please,” his campaign elaborated on the budding scandal in a fundraising letter.
‘House Republicans Have Found the Money’
The day after Mr. Comer revealed a copy of the $200,000 check, President Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign criticized the payment in a fundraising letter sent out on Oct. 21.
“Crooked Joe has denied having any involvement in his family’s business dealings,” the letter states. remove
“When interrogated by a reporter about allegations of bribery, Biden said, ‘Where’s the money? Well, it looks like House Republicans have found the money,” the letter continued.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times on the check.
While on the campaign trail, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden insisted that he had no role in his family’s business dealings and, since then, the president has on several occasions denied any such suggestions.
President Biden’s arduous denials have been challenged by evidence that has emerged as part of the Republican probe, the revelations of the contents of the Hunter Biden laptop, statements made by Hunter Biden’s former business associate Tony Bobulinski, and testimony by Devon Archer, former business partner of the president’s son.
END
Chinese Fraud Rings, Other US Adversaries Stole Billions In Pandemic Relief Funds: Testimony
Anti-waste and fraud controls were so lax on trillions of tax dollars being spent by federal and state government agencies on COVID-19 pandemic relief benefits that as much as half of those funds actually went to entities in China, Russia, and other U.S. adversarial nations, a congressional panel was told on Thursday.
Her comments came in response to a question from Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) concerning a recent federal prosecution of a group of Chinese government-linked hackers who stole an estimated $20 million in relief funds.
Ms. Miller is the former Deputy Executive Director of the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC) in the Department of Justice (DOJ). Michael Horowitz, the DOJ Inspector General, heads the PRAC office. She is also the former Assistant Director of the Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) Forensic Audits and Investigative Service group. She is now an anti-waste and fraud expert consultant.
“The nearly $5 trillion in government relief spending during the COVID-19 pandemic—much of which was disbursed as direct payments to citizens—created the perfect storm for fraud. A combination of inadequate oversight and internal controls, large-scale organized fraud rings, and antiquated data and information systems contributed to the massive, widespread fraud we saw during the pandemic,” Ms. Miller told the subcommittee during her prepared testimony.
Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) the subcommittee’s chairman, recalled a telephone call he received during the pandemic from his wife, who managed an Arizona surgery center with 20-30 employees.
“‘You know, I am here handling all of these unemployment applications,” Mr. Schweikert recalled his wife telling him. “A lot of them were from people who had never worked there or who had not worked there in years. But the best one was when she was getting unemployment benefit requests for herself.”
At that point, Mr. Schweikert said, his wife asked, “Do you want me to quit now because apparently I am already asking for unemployment.” The Arizona Republican said his wife later added up all of the fraudulent benefit application verifications that were received for her surgery center and found “there were hundreds.”
Mr. Schweikert said the oversight subcommittee “has been tracking some crazy stories of [pandemic relief] unemployment insurance fraud that was converted to gift cards that was moved into buying cars, and the cars were shipped over to Africa as a way to wash the money.” He added that the subcommittee has found evidence that foreign entities have stolen funds from the U.S. pandemic relief programs and channeled them into support of violent overseas activities.
Rebecca Shea, GAO’s Director of Audits, Forensic Audits, and Investigative Services, told the hearing that her office has examined DOJ prosecutions of pandemic fraud and “so we have some information about foreign actors exploiting the various pandemic relief programs.”
In her prepared testimony, Ms. Shea told the subcommittee that federal program managers who are directly responsible for identifying and stopping fraud were focused almost entirely on getting benefits processed and in the hands of beneficiaries, even though there are multiple federal laws and regulations requiring federal workers to take measures to prevent tax dollars from going to ineligible recipients.The U.S. Department of Labor Building on March 26, 2020, in Washington. (Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images)
“Federal agencies did not strategically manage fraud risks and were not adequately prepared to prevent fraud when the pandemic began. We recognize that eliminating all fraud and fraud risk is not a realistic goal. However, a variety of resources and requirements for fraud risk management were in place well before the pandemic. Had agencies already been strategically managing their fraud risks, they would have been better positioned to identify and respond to the heightened risks that emerged during the pandemic,” Ms. Shea testified.
Amy Simon, who worked in the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (ETA) during the pandemic, testified that officials still do not know the actual full extent of pandemic benefit fraud.
“The scale of improper spending and outright fraud is only now coming into clearer focus. Official federal estimates, while still preliminary, are astonishing. Based on an assumed improper payment rate of more than 21 percent, government officials have conservatively estimated at least $191 billion in improper payments during the pandemic,” Ms. Simon told the panel.
“However, that figure is expected to rise, likely to $240 billion or more, following a recent GAO report that found that the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program had an even higher improper payment rate of almost 36 percent. GAO separately estimates between $100 billion and $135 billion in unemployment benefits were lost to fraud during the pandemic, or approximately one in every seven dollars in benefits paid,” she said.
In response to a question from Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.), Ms. Simon said, “Pandemic fraud is effectively a vertical for many criminal organizations, and it is an income source. There was a recent DOJ indictment in Michigan of a sprawling scheme that was funded by multiple kinds of pandemic fraud that had murder-for-hire as one of its services. So these are not run-of-the-mill, someone down the street claimed a few extra weeks they shouldn’t have. It is serious organized crime rings.”
end
FOOLS!!
Biden Admin Quietly Admits Worst Ever Illegal Crossing Numbers As Axios Declares Border “More Fortified Than Ever”
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 01:40 PM
Gaslighting much…?
Presumably these two things can be correct at the same time:
1) The US southern border is “more fortified than it’s ever been” – Conservatives ‘open-border’ term is a myth, according to Axios…
2) CBP quietly revealed on Saturday that in September thehighest ever number of encounters with illegal immigrants attempting to cross into the country was recorded, and that close to 2.5 MILLION have crossed the border this fiscal year.
If both these ‘facts’ are true, then the Biden administration has a major problem.
b) Axios is acting as a useful idiot in projecting a ‘strong border’ (physically) that we now know is the most porous in terms of doing its jobs ever;
or c) there really is an ‘open border’ (legal) policy.
“We don’t have open borders because the U.S. government is attempting to stop as many people who cross the border as they can,” David J. Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, tells Axios.
“If the administration was pursuing any kind of open border policy, the number of people being arrested would be dropping. And that’s not the case. They’re arresting and expelling as many people as ever.”
More gaslighting.. what percentage of those ‘formally arrested’ (and then released) turn up for their court asylum hearing?
“So we understand what the invasion looks like,” adding “267 terrorists (these were caught imagine how many got through?), 8M+ illegal aliens since Biden took office, 72,823 illegal special interest aliens (from countries that harbor terrorism) over the last 2 years.”
“This is not an accident or a coincidence, this is deliberate by Democrats and it will destroy our country,” Trump Jr. concluded.
We give the last word to Tucker’s guest – Dominik Tarczynski, a European Parliament member from Poland – who had some advice for conservative lawmakers facing these record numbers of illegal immigration:
“Be brave… or you will not exist. Be brave… believe in your values, believe in family. Don’t talk about it, do it! This is war, this is not a joke.”
As Carlson warned if we do not act: “The result is a country, our country, that is changing faster than it ever has but not through Democratic means.”
end
President Biden’s Taunts To ‘Show Me The Money’ May Have Just Backfired
That laughing quip from President Joe Biden was his surprising reaction to the disclosure that a trusted FBI informant had conveyed an alleged bribe worth millions, paid to Joe Biden by a Ukrainian businessman.
Biden seemed almost to morph into the Cuba Gooding Jr. character in “Jerry Maguire,” getting Tom Cruise’s character to chant “show me the money” over and over again. Much like in the movie, the pundits and politicians picked up the refrain, insisting that nothing matters unless critics can show a direct payment to Jill or Joe Biden among the millions sent to Biden family members. At the same time, they opposed any investigation by the House.
Now, the House Oversight Committee committee has released evidence of one such transfer that might even satisfy Cuba Gooding, Jr.
The payment occurred in 2018, after the president’s brother, James Biden, received $200,000 from a company called Americore. James has long been criticized for raw influence peddling, and Americore was one of the companies where he had reportedly suggested access to sell to his brother.
On March 1, 2018, Americore wired James the money to his personal rather than his business account. On the very same day, James wrote a check in that same amount to the personal bank account of his brother Joe, who had left office as Vice President and was widely discussed as a possible candidate for the presidency.
James listed the money as a “loan repayment.”
“Loans” have long been a source of controversy with the Bidens. IRS whistleblowers, for example, detailed how Hunter took massive payments from corrupt foreign sources and listed them as “loans,” despite no evidence of repayment or any standard loan agreement. He allegedly neither paid them back nor paid taxes on the money.
Even if Joe Biden did loan almost a quarter of a million dollars to his brother, it would raise concerns over whether this disbursement came while he was vice president. The payments could have given Joe Biden an interest in not just the influence peddling of his brother but also the viability of this company.
The White House has insisted that it was a loan to his brother that was repaid. But if there is no evidence of an actual loan, it would constitute a payment from an influence-seekling company to Joe Biden.
At a minimum, the payment shows the fluidity of the accounts and finances of the Biden influence-peddling operation. While I have long criticized influence peddling by both Republicans and Democrats for decades, the Bidens constitute a class to themselves. The House committees have now traced millions of dollars passing through a labyrinth of shell companies and accounts to Biden family members, even grandchildren.
This operation has become undeniable in recent months. Devan Archer admitted under oath that they were selling the “Biden Brand” and suggested that these companies were seeking influence and access to Joe Biden.
While the media long dismissed this corruption scandal, it recently adopted a final line of defense that acknowledged that Hunter and his associates were selling influence, but it was a mere “illusion” of influence.
That is why the president and his allies in the media began to channel Cuba Gooding Jr.
It is important to note that it is not necessary for Joe Biden to directly receive money to constitute either a crime or an impeachable offense. As I stated in my testimony at the first Biden impeachment hearing, payments to Joe Biden’s family would be considered a “benefit” to him under standard criminal case law.
Nevertheless, Biden’s taunt to show him the money would ordinarily send the media into a frenzy — much like Gary Hart’s invitation for reporters to follow him to see if he was philanderer. They followed him directly to a ship called “Monkey Business,” and that ended with a career-ending photo of Hart with Donna Rice on his lap.
Few in the media were eager to follow the money after Joe’s taunt for the very reason that they were eager to follow Hart — they are fairly certain what they would find.
There have long been allegations of cross-benefits and payments involving Joe Biden. That includes a deal with the Chinese to pay for an expensive office for the use of Joe and Jill Biden, as well as use of shared accounts and credit cards (including one card used by Hunter to pay for a prostitute). There were also references to taxes and house costs being paid out of these accounts for Joe and Jill Biden. Indeed, Hunter Biden complained that he was being forced to fork out half of his earnings to his father.
That brings us back to the latest transfer. At a minimum, the payments show that Joe Biden was aware that his brothers and his son were in dire need of funds throughout these years. Frank Biden, the president’s younger brother, evaded efforts to force him to pay damages for his involvement in a reckless driving death in California. The surviving daughters of the victim in that crash wrote repeatedly to then-Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) to ask for his help in getting Frank to accept responsibility and pay up. Just before running for Vice President, Biden coolly responded: “As you are aware…Frank has no assets with which to satisfy the judgment. The senator regrets that this is where matters stand and that he cannot be more helpful.”
In Hunter’s case, he was so financially desperate that he threatened a Chinese figure to send him money or else his father would take action. In one message, Hunter told a Chinese businessman that his father was sitting next to him to make sure the payment came through.
Hunter’s financial woes were so bad that James was dispatched (after allegedly speaking with Joe Biden) to offer Hunter a “safe harbor” to avoid disaster.
Now Joe Biden is claiming that he had to give James almost a quarter of a million dollars.
During this entire period, there was a steady stream of coverage about the influence peddling of James, Frank, and Hunter Biden. According to the Oversight Committee, it now appears that James received $600,000 in loans from Americore despite the company’s own financial struggles.
The evidence of money transferred from one of these companies through James to Joe Biden’s personal accounts will likely produce one immediate change: the media is likely to move the goal posts yet again.
Of course, influence-peddling is itself corrupt, and benefits to one’s family are already sufficient for criminal charges (including as with the charges brought against Sen. Bob Menendez). However, now, even money received by Joe and Jill Biden will be deemed insufficient to justify further investigation.
Now, they will argue, there must be a money trail directly from one of the companies, preferably marked down on the books as a “bribe” and not as a “loan repayment.” And even pictures of Joe sitting with Hunter’s clients in restaurants and offices will be insufficient to establish knowledge or involvement.
When it comes to the Biden “Monkey Business,” even a picture of a Burisma executive on the president’s lap would not do. The new demand will be somewhere between an envelope of cash and an outright confession.
end
Trump Targets Jack Smith After Judge Temporarily Lifts Gag Order
Days after a federal judge temporarily lifted a gag order, former President Donald Trump criticized special counsel Jack Smith on social media.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan granted President Trump a temporary hold last week on her previous ruling in the 2020 election conspiracy case while the Trump legal team is appealing the order, arguing that it is unconstitutional.
In the meantime, President Trump criticized Mr. Smith on Truth Social as being “deranged” and said his team “leak[ed]” a story to the New York Times about an Australian businessman, Anthony Pratt, claiming the former president told classified secrets to him.
He denied those reports.
“With this in mind, there is NO WAY I can get a fair trial on a Biden, Election Interference Indictment, in D.C. Obviously, at the appropriate time, if this ridiculous case should be allowed to proceed forward, which is, according to legal scholars, very doubtful, I will be making a demand for a Venue Change!” he also wrote on the social media platform.
Earlier this month, Judge Chutkan ordered President Trump to not make any posts or statements regarding possible witnesses, Mr. Smith, his family, or court staff, although he can make general statements about the Department of Justice and Washington itself. Prosecutors alleged that the former president’s posts on social media could incite violence or contaminate the jury pool, while Trump’s attorneys argued that such an order would violate his right to free speech—especially as he is a leading candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
“President Trump is the forty-fifth President of the United States and the leading candidate in the upcoming Presidential Election,” his defense attorneys wrote.
“He has dominating leads in the race for the Republican nomination, and he leads President Biden.”
However, the federal judge rejected the former president’s arguments regarding the election, saying that “no other criminal defendant would be allowed to do so, and I’m not going to allow it in this case.” She would impose sanctions if the partial gag order is violated, she said without elaborating.
Meanwhile, Mr. Smith’s prosecutors wanted broader restrictions targeting the former president, arguing that his social media comments targeting various individuals could prejudice the proceedings. But the judge denied his bid to restrict his comments about the people of Washington who can be jurors in the trial, and she also declined to restrict his statements criticizing the federal government.
“He does not have the right to say and do exactly what he pleases. Do you agree with that?” she asked Trump attorney John Lauro during a court hearing on Oct. 16, who replied with, “100 percent.”
“Nothing like this has ever happened in our Country before,” President Trump said earlier this month about the order, criticizing Judge Chutkan as a “highly partisan Obama appointed Judge,” referring to former President Barack Obama’s appointment of her in 2014.
(Left:) Special counsel Jack Smith. (Center:) U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan. (Right:) Former President Donald Trump. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images; Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts via AP; Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
In the case, President Trump pleaded not guilty to the four-count indictment, which is one of four separate criminal cases against him while he seeks to become the 2024 Republican nominee for the White House. He also currently is facing a civil fraud trial in New York City over his sprawling real estate business, and he has also denied wrongdoing in the case.
It wasn’t the first time that a judge issued a gag order targeting the former president. New York Judge Arthur Engoron issued a partial gag order that blocks personal criticism of courtroom personnel after President Trump accused his principal clerk of having a cozy relationship with Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
On Friday, he was fined $5,000 by the New York judge after a post about his clerk reportedly stayed up on his campaign website for several weeks, despite the former president having deleted it from social media. His attorneys said that it was an oversight.
It comes as the Trump campaign confirmed the former president will hold a rally in Florida as counter-programming to the third Republican presidential primary debate, which he is once again choosing to skip.
The campaign stated he will hold a rally the evening of Nov. 8th at a stadium in Hialeah, Florida about a half-hour drive from the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County, where his rivals will be meeting. President Trump has repeatedly said he sees no point in participating, given his commanding lead in the race.
NBC will be hosting the November debate, which will require candidates to secure 4 percent of the vote in multiple polls and 70,000 unique donors to qualify.
During he first debate, the former president competed with the first debate with a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that was posted that night on X, the site formerly known as Twitter. He spent the second in battleground Michigan, where he tried to win over auto workers and blue-collar voters by railing against President Joe Biden’s push for electric cars.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report October 23, 2023 Issue 7102
Independent View of the News
Israel has attacked Iran proxies in Lebanon and Syria; and reports suggest that Iran might be next.
AFP: Hezbollah ‘dragging Lebanon into a war’: Israel military AFP: US activates deployment of defense systems ‘throughout’ Mideast: Pentagon AFP: US places additional forces on ‘prepare to deploy orders’:Pentagon AFP: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the moves were in response to “recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East.”
Israeli strikes knock out Damascus, Aleppo airports: Syria state mediahttps://t.co/vBiZjhPpdX
Fox’s @LucasFoxNews 10:43 PM on Sat: U.S. defense secretary orders additional forces to the Middle East including, “the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery as well as additional Patriot battalions.” (Note: Hamas and Hezbollah do not have ballistic missiles. Iran does.) Lloyd Austin also ‘redirected’ the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group to the Middle East
@TrentTelenko: The visuals here look like Israel just went for a 1st strike on Hezbollah rocket ammo depots in Lebanon. The implications are Israel just chose a “Besiege Gaza and eliminate Hezbollah offensive capability 1st” military strategy…I don’t think Iran or Hezbollah expected it… https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1715866805397311722?s=02
@sentdefender: The IDF has announced that the explosion earlier tonight at the Al-Ansari Mosque within the Jenin Refugee Camp in the West Bank was the result of a Joint-Operation and Airstrike between the IDF as well as Shin Bet on a Underground-Terror Compound beneath the Mosquewhich was being used by both Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to prepare an Imminent Terrorist Attack.
PREEMPTIVE STRIKE: Will Israel choose this moment to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and assassinate its leaders?Netanyahu likely discussed with Biden case for obliterating Tehran terror threat once and for all… One obvious reason for the delay: Israel’s wants all Palestinian civilians in the northern half of Gaza to move south, out of the way of the coming IDF invasion. Another: Netanyahu has been welcoming major world leaders in recent days… to brief these and other leaders on the atrocities Hamas has committed, and Iran’s involvement in the attacks… The most important of all. On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said something to which more people should pay attention. “We are preparing for the next stages of war,” Lt. Colonel Richard Hecht told reporters. “We haven’t said what they will be. Everybody’s talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.”… For almost half a century, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been launching one terrorist attack after another against the United States, against Israel, against our Arab allies in the region, and against Jews and Christians all over the world… Now, the mullahs are feverishly racing to build fully operational nuclear weapons. They’re already at 84% enrichment of uranium.That is almost at 90% to 95% military grade enrichment… https://allisrael.com/preemptive-strike-will-israel-choose-this-moment-to-attack-irans-nuclear-facilities-and-assassinate-its-leaders
@EzraACohen: If it proves true the events over the past three weeks were a final coordinated effort by the Iranian regime to destabilize the Middle East, claims of “no US intelligence failure” will be impossible to stand by.
@IsraelRadar_com: Israel’s revenge: Shin Bet security agency sets up special branch dedicated to killing Hamas elite forces who took part in Oct 7 massacre; branch is tasked with tracking down and eliminating every single one (via @issacharoff). Mossad may be setting up a similar team…
(Friday) Bank of Japan intervenes as 10-year JGB yield hits fresh decade peakhttps://t.co/5rjbyBvV6j (What other markets are ‘they’ rigging?)
Hezbollah Says It’s Targeting Sites in Israel 4:21 PM, 9:21 ET Friday – BBG Iran-back Hezbollah said it targeted multiple sites in Israel with guided missiles… The Israeli military reported about 20 launches into Israel from Lebanon, as well as several anti-tank missiles fired at military posts near the border. It reported no casualties and responded with artillery fire. (We’re old enough to remember that last week Biden told Hezbollah to not ‘get involved’ in the war.)
Worsening Middle East geopolitics impacted the markets and expiration on Friday. Stocks declined; bonds, oil, and gold rallied sharply. December gold hit a high of 2009.20. WTI Oil hit 90.78.
After oscillating between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after the 2 ET Chinese close, ESZs traded negatively in 21-handle range until they broke lower at 10:09 ET.
ESZs hit a daily low of 4255.25 at the 11:30 ET European close. The high was 4304.25 at 4:44 ET. It was time for traders that were long expiry October calls to try to salvage their positions. The ensuing rally was abetted by this:
@Dana_Regev: Hamas says it released a mother (poor health) & daughter, both US citizens (IL), for humanitarian reasons, with Qatar’s mediation. The two were released “to prove to the American people and the world that the claims made by Biden and his fascist administration are false and baseless.”
US Presses Israel to Delay Gaza Invasion to Win Hostage Release – BBG 13:16 ET
Was the Hamas release of 2 US hostages was a scheme involving the US and Qatar to get Israel to delay its Gaza offensive? Minutes after as the hostage news surfaced, the ‘US presses Israel’ report appeared. Ergo, the US response was prepared well in advance of the hostage release announcement. Biden publicly thanked Qatar for helping get the two hostages released. What did Team Obama-Biden give up?
Fox’s @TreyYingst: Hamas militants were told by commanders to behead Israelis and cut their feet on October 7th, according to an Israeli interrogation video obtained and reviewed by Fox News. A militant in his 20s also describes how Hamas used Telegram to share videos in real time as they conducted the massacre. This militant says his commander, a man from Gaza City, told them they should not expect to return. We’ve left out some incredibly graphic details about what Hamas did to the bodies of women they slaughtered. They are too disturbing to explain on TV. https://twitter.com/TreyYingst/status/1715769709914714336
ESZs jumped 17 handles in 10 minutes, hitting 4284.75 at 13:18 ET. WTI oil fell to 89.11 at 13:18 ET; Gold hit 1994.20. USZs retreated modestly. The hostage-release rally ended at 13:22 ET. ESZs sank to 4261.75 by 14:17 ET possibly on this: @IntelCrab: Unconfirmed reports of Israeli causalities following a successful ATGM strike launched from southern Lebanon. The situation there is escalating.
ESZs hit a bottom of 4258.50 at 14:42 ET. After a bounce to 4267.50 at 14:55 ET, ESZs rolled over and eventually fell to 4256.50 at 15:13 ET. It was time for the last-hour manipulation. ESZs jumped to 4266.25 at 15:19 ET; but sellers appeared. ESZs sank to a new daily low of 4245.00 at the NYSE close. As we postulated, ‘who would want to be long over the weekend?’ PS – The S&P 500 Index closed (4224.16) below its 200-Day Moving Average (4233.13) for the 1st time since March.
On the close: US Fiscal-Year Budget Gap Widens 23% to $1.7T on Revenue Drop – BBG Equivalent to 6.3% of GDP… Rising interest rates were a key factor…The Treasury spent $879 billion on interest costs for the 12 months through September… at 3.3% of GDP, gross interest costs were the highest since 2001… spending dropped 2.2% from the prior year to $6.13 trillion… about 22.8% of GDP. Revenue for the fiscal year slid by 0.3% to $4.44 trillion… about 16.5% of GDP… A surging stock market prior to 2022 boosted capital gains revenues in the previous year…
(Phil Fed Pres) Harker: Hearing Inflation Is Easing Faster than Thought – BBG 9:29 ET (Phil Fed Pres) Harker: Hearing Economy Is Softening Faster than Thought – BBG 9:30 ET
Is neo-dove Harker suggesting that the Fed should transition from being “data dependent” to being “table talk dependent?” What is Harker aspiring to be?
Biden Bails for the Beach as Americans Attacked, Held Hostage; Josh Hawley and Others Let Him Have It – He’s going to a campaign reception in D.C. at 6 p.m. and then he’s off on yet another vacation, back to his beach house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. (To be fair, Joe’s not really in charge!) Think of the hostages while you’re at the beach — Josh Hawley (GOP Sen) 8:56 AM Friday https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2023/10/20/biden-bails-for-the-beach-showing-exactly-where-his-priorities-lie-n2165334
Oversight Committee @GOPoversight: We have found a $200,000 DIRECT payment (under guise of loan repayment) to Joe Biden. (From James Biden on the same day the bro received a $200k payment.) @RepJamesComer… “There’s more to come.” https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1715435217115087020
Comer raises questions about $200k ‘direct payment’ from James Biden to Joe Biden in 2018 Comer subpoenaed personal and business bank records belonging to Hunter and James Biden Comer explains that in 2018, James Biden “received $600,000 in loans from Americore —a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.” “According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans based upon representations that his last name Biden could open doors; and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections,” Comer said. “On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account—not their business bank account,” he continued. “And then, on the very same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden.” Comer said James Biden “wrote this check to Joe Biden as a ‘loan repayment.’”… “Some immediate questions President Biden must answer for the American people: Does he have documents proving he lent such a large sum of money to his brother and what were the terms of such financial arrangement?” Comer asked. “Did he have similar financial arrangements with other family members that led them to make similar large payments to him?”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/comer-raises-questions-200k-direct-payment-james-biden-joe-biden-2018
Positive aspects of previous session. Stocks rallied sharply after Europe closed
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank while bonds, oil, and gold rallied on the worsening Middle East situation The hostage-release rally was extremely short lived.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How bad will the Middle East get; and will it lead to something more pernicious?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4241.25 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4276.56; 4223.03
Coca-Cola Quietly Deletes BLM Support off Website, Ted Cruz Calls Them out for Pro-Hamas Posthttps://t.co/KgVaiCu4ds
A Vegas Whale and Wall Street Tap Billions Meant for US Housing Cheap funding from the $1.4 trillion FHLB system attracts savvy financiers, including some who have little to do with mortgage lending – Andy Beal saw a change to profit…Two banks he owned…pulled $4.4 billion from a government system created during the Great Depression to help Americans get mortgages, regulatory filings show… By the end of last year, 42% of the more than 6,400 banks, credit unions and insurers that could borrow from the system hadn’t reported making a single mortgage in the past five years… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vegas-whale-many-more-tap-111516928.html
CNN’s @kaitlancollins (Friday): Reporter: Should Israel delay the ground invasion until you can get more hostages out? President Biden: Yes. 8:02 PM ET Friday White House Communications Director Ben LaBolt says: “The president was far away. He didn’t hear the full question.The question sounded like ‘Would you like to see more hostages released?’ He wasn’t commenting on anything else.” 8:20 PM ET Friday
@sentdefender on Sat: U.S. President Biden was asked today yet again if he wishes for the Israeli Government to Delay the Invasion of the Gaza Strip in order to allow for Hostage Negotiations to continue, to which he Replied, “I will talk to the Israelis regarding the matter.”
@CollinRugg (Sunday): China has reportedly deployed multiple warships to the Middle East region after the United States deployed two carrier strike groups.Up to 6 Chinese warships were reportedly deployed including two advanced 052D destroyers.
@i24NEWS_EN: Gaza ground operation loons, fire exchanged on Israel-Lebanon border ‘Israel is moving to evacuate even more communities. They’ve already evacuated 20, today deciding to evacuate 14 communities along Israel’s northern border.’ Our @mcauliffe_marym reports from northern Israel.
On Sunday, the IDF said it accidentally struck an Egyptian military post in the Kerem Shalom area. Reportedly, nine Egyptian soldiers were injured.
@LucasFoxNews (Sunday): Sen. Lindsey Graham, speaking in Tel Aviv, says 10% of the U.S. Senate is in Israel right now. “I saw things today I never thought possible,” and warns Iran: “We are watching you.” “Destroying Hamas is nonnegotiable.”
@Jerusalem_Post: Hamas handlers gave terrorists bags of Captagon an amphetamine-type stimulant that promotes feelings of rage, irritability, and impatience that encourage terrorists to murder and torture victims.https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-769646
The Hamas chief who lives in a London council house…“ran the group’s terrorist operations in the West Bank” was given a British passport… https://t.co/iriV0Eb4GA
@FaceTheNation: @LeaderMcConnell says “a significant portion” of Ukraine aid from Congress is being spent in states to make weapons. “We’re rebuilding our industrial base. The Ukrainians are destroying the army of one of our biggest rivals. I have a hard time finding anything wrong with that.” (GOPe McConnell regurgitates Biden’s talking point that Ukraine aid boost the US economy. What about the mushrooming US debt, Mitch?) https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1716109625144070322
McConnell inadvertently told the truth about padding the pockets of his defense industry donors.
Today – From Friday’s King Report: The S&P 500 Index is in an extremely dangerous position technically… A breach of the October low (4216.45), which would also breach the 200-Day Moving Average, could unleash feverish algo and momentum selling.
The S&P 500 Index closed (4224.16) below its 200-Day Moving Average (4233.13) and is less than 8 points from breaching its critical October intraday low of 4216.45. With the Middle East situation threatening to worsen substantially, LOOK OUT! Only play if you must!
ESZs are +9.50 and USZs are -13/32 at 20:45 ET because war is bullish for stocks but bad for bonds.
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4387; 100-day MA: 4410; 150-day MA: 4308; 200-day MA: 4233 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,182; 100-day MA: 34,318; 150-day MA: 33,984; 200-day MA: 33,830 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4473.50 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4376.88 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4277.09 triggers a buy signal
Top Iranian Pentagon aide keeps security clearance despite being accused of ‘spying for Tehran’ “Biden’s DoD is REFUSING to revoke the security clearance of an Iranian spy working at the Pentagon,” Ernst (GOP Sen.) wrote on X. “More of POTUS’s appeasement strategy that has emboldened [Iran] & its proxies, like Hamas, & threatened our nat’l security.”https://trib.al/GIiqcDE
GOP Sen. @JDVance1: Given that a bunch of Soros backed organizations are out there explicitly blaming Jews for Hamas slaughtering and raping Israelis, is it still considered antisemitic to call Soros an antisemite?
@TheBabylonBee: Republicans to Spend Weekend Brainstorming How to Be Even More of an Embarrassmenthttps://t.co/db3RRld5AA
“The Whole George Floyd Story Was a Lie”: Tucker Carlson “But the question is, did he [Derek Chauvin] actually murder George Floyd? And the answer is, well, no, he didn’t murder George Floyd, and we’re not guessing about that; we know it conclusively thanks to a new court case now underway in Hennepin County, Minnesota.” The lawsuit, incidental to Floyd and Chauvin, unveiled sworn deposition excerpts from a conversation with County Medical Examiner Andrew Baker, indicating that Floyd’s passing was not due to asphyxiation or strangulation. Instead, factors including drug use and a fatal concentration of fentanyl were significant contributors, reframing his demise from the widely publicized ‘murder’ to an inadvertent overdose… In other words, George Floyd, according to the official autopsy, was not murdered… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whole-george-floyd-story-was-lie-tucker-carlson
Far-left pressure in George Floyd case may have influenced trial despite lack of strangulation evidence: court documents – “There was extreme premium pressure, yes. The city was burning down.” Multiple employees of the Hennepin County Attorney’s Office, including a prosecutor for the case, withdrew after stating that the pressure to charge the other three officers involved, “violated professional and ethical rules.” This information has come out after being included in a sex discrimination complaint filed by former Hennepin County prosecutor, Amy Sweasy, one of the office’s top prosecutors, against County Attorney Mike Freeman… “On May 20, 2022, a complaint went public relating to The Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman harassing and retaliating against prosecuting attorney Amy Sweasy — after she disagreed for wanting to charge Mr. Thao, Mr. Lane, and Mr. Kueng for their involvement,” per Alpha News… According to Sweasy, after performing an autopsy on Floyd, Baker stated that “there were no medical findings that showed any injury to the vital structures of Mr. Floyd’s neck. There were no medical indications of asphyxia or strangulation,” per the transcript… Per Sweasy, Baker then went on to state, “‘Amy, what happens when the actual evidence doesn’t match up with the public narrative that everyone’s already decided on?’ And then he said, ‘This is the kind of case that ends careers.’” https://thepostmillennial.com/far-left-pressure-in-george-floyd-case-may-have-influenced-trial-despite-lack-of-strangulation-evidence-court-documents?utm_campaign=64470
Think of all the hate, animus, and destruction that occurred over George Floyd. Think of the defund cop movement, the decriminalization of crimes, refusal to incarcerate violent criminals that ensued. Think of the destruction to major cities that is ongoing and will continue to proceed until….
Ex-NYC Mayor de Blasio deliberately held back cops during George Floyd protests, new Melissa DeRosa book claimshttps://t.co/01WkjlnPyk
@stkirsch: You can now sue the mRNA COVID vaccine manufacturers for damages and the FDA is required to take the COVID vaccines off the market. Why? Adulteration. The plasmid bioactive contaminant sequences were NOT pointed out to the regulatory authorities. It’s considered adulteration. I just got off the phone with Professor Byram Bridle and Dr. Robert Malone on this.
@TexasLindsay_: “It took my breath away.” —Dr. Drew on the new study shows 50% of young men who got myocarditis after the vaccine now have permanent heart damage and he doesn’t understand why this isn’t front page news. And he recommends injured students sue any school that mandated it. https://twitter.com/TexasLindsay_/status/1715033782498001303
@stkirsch: The reason it’s not front page news is that it would make the White House, CDC, FDA, medical community, and mainstream media all look bad… Here’s the key line in the myocarditis paper that Dr. Drew referred to. The point is that 1 year after presentation, there is scaring of the heart muscle in 58% of the people who presented with damage a year earlier. How clinically significant this is TBD. You can see the paper here: https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10373639/They had 26 with abnormal CMR at the start of the study and 58% had abnormal findings a year later.
Bloomberg reports that in 2022, 17% of Americans got a fall Covid booster; for 2023 it’s less than 3%.
@NikolovScience: Did you that India is the only country in the World, where vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer and Moderna are NOT granted legal immunity from liability for injuring people with toxic products? The entire World should follow India’s example of healthcare governance!
Pfizer jacks up price of five-day course of COVID drug Paxlovid to $1,400https://trib.al/S96lkYo
@CWBChicago: Latrell Allen was sentenced to 60 years in prison yesterday for firing shots at Chicago police officers in August 2020. Misinformation about the shooting sparked widespread looting along the Magnificent Mile and in retail corridors across the city.
Malicious Mitt Romney – Au Revoir, Pierre Delecto…Don’t Let the Door Hit You on the Way Out Throughout his unremarkable political career, Mitt Romney carefully cultivated the image of the ultimate “nice guy.”… But in these late innings of his public life, Mitt shows his inner malice. In his quotes provided to biographer McKay Coppins for a new book on Romney, Mitt finally went on-the-record to express his disdain for people he publicly flattered, and his revulsion for the conservative movement he supposedly represented. Romney failed miserably in 2012, when America badly needed a political street fighter to save the country from a second Obama term. Instead, we got a soulless corporate automaton, conjoined with an equally feckless junior version of Mitt, running mate Paul Ryan. For Romney, it seems that botched run still haunts this bitter man as he heads to an ignoble retirement rather than confront angry voters in the 2024 GOP primary… A political eunuch, Romney was at least consistent in his constant efforts to swim with the perceived public current of popularity. Mitt always catered to “the current thing.”… https://stevecortes.substack.com/p/malicious-mitt-romney
@BillMelugin_: CBP reports there were 269,735 migrant encounters at the southern border in September, making it the highest single month ever recorded. CBP reports fiscal year 2023 now finishes with 2.47 million encounters, also the highest annual total ever recorded in a single year.
@DC_Draino: People forget that Kevin McCarthy put tens of millions of dollars into GOP primaries attacking MAGA candidates. When they survived his onslaught, he left them high and dry during the general and many lost close races. We could’ve easily had a 20-30 seat cushion if popular MAGA candidates were supported. Some blame Trump for our tiny House majority. But it was Kevin using GOP funds to damage MAGA and boost unlikable establishment candidates. (GOP divisions remain)
Dems’ Favorite Fundraising Platform Takes Donations For Groups Cheering On Hamas Violence, Attacking Israel – ActBlue, the fundraising platform favored by Democratic politicians and left-of-center advocacy groups, is processing donations for Black Lives Matter Grassroots, Palestine Legal, US Palestinian Community Network (USPCN) and multiple chapters of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), alongside others… https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/19/actblue-hamas-violence-israel/
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER
Mathematically, Financial System Is Going Down – Bill Holter
Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter warned in August of financial trouble coming to America sooner than later. He gave a long list that now includes a global war. Even without war, there is no stopping the financial fall that is coming. Central banks are, once again, the biggest buyers of gold this year. What is going on? Holter says, “The central banks fully understand the math behind the financial system of the West is broken. The Western financial system cannot survive the math. . . .Once we got to 0% interest rates on the bottom, the rates could not go down any further, and the debt continued to pile up. The U.S. Treasury is going to be paying $1.5 trillion a year just in debt service. That number, a few years ago, had been around $400 billion a year. So, the debt service has quadrupled, and there are no more tricks in the bag.
Holter thinks the Fed is being forced to prop up the dollar and explains, “They have to keep interest rates up; otherwise, the dollar is going to be sold. You are already seeing that in the Treasury markets. . . . That is the reason you are seeing interest rates spike as hard as they have. We are up to about 5% on a 10-year Treasury. . . . Because interest rates are going higher, banks are losing deposits. JPMorgan Chase has lost over a quarter of a trillion dollars in deposits. The whole banking system has lost over a trillion dollars.”
Holter points out that interest rates were effectively 0% not that many years ago. That has changed dramatically with dramatic consequences. Holter says, “We are in the biggest bear market in credit in the history of the world. In other words, we have had more losses in the credit markets than there has ever been in the history of history. The credit bubble has popped.”
Holter goes on to say, “What happens to the dollar if an aircraft carrier goes down? The value of the U.S. dollar will absolutely collapse. The credit markets will collapse. I do not want to downplay a nuclear war. It is unthinkable, but if you just look at the financial markets, it’s system over. The system is done . . . . Without credit . . . Everything runs on credit. Everything you do and everything you buy runs on credit. If credit stops, the real economy completely stops. That’s where your ‘Mad Max’ scenario comes in. . . .Everything stops once credit stops.”
Holter thinks commercial real estate is a monster problem, and, now, with 8% 30-year mortgage rates, residential real estate is going to start tumbling. This is just one of many headwinds sinking the economy. Holter predicts, “Mathematically, from a financial standpoint only, forget about geopolitical events. Mathematically, the financial system is going to come down. I think the odds are very good that this is going to happen before the end of this year. Add in the geopolitical events, and that’s just another spark that will create fire underneath the paper the system is.”
There is much more in the 44-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 10.20.23.
BillHolter.com is now 6 months old, and it is still growing by leaps and bounds. There is a new article on the homepage you can read for free. Check it out!!!
Holter also invites you to email him directly. Simply scroll down the homepage of BillHolter.com and click on Bill Holter’s email under “Contact Us” on the right-hand side of the page. You can’t miss it
harveyorganblog.com 
