OCT 30//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.80 TO $1995.80//SILVER WAS UP 46 CENTS TO $23.25//PLATINUM WAS UP $32.45 TO $933.85 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP ONLY $5.30 TO $1127.90 AS PLATINUM CONTINUES TO GAIN ON PALLADIUM//TWO GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM JAMES RICKARDS AND EGON VON GREYERZ//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES, IDF RESCUES ONE FEMALE SOLDIER INSIDE GAZA/ISRAEL OFFERS A CEASEFIRE FOR THE RELEASE OF ALL HOSTAGES AND THAT WAS TURNED DOWN BY HAMAS// EXCELLENT COMMENTARY ON THE WAR FROM CHRIS POWELL//COVID UPDATES///VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS, NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 113 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 99 737 C ADVANTAGE 7 880 H CITIGROUP 30 905 C ADM 1 991 H CME 1
TOTAL: 132 132 MONTH TO DATE: 11,532
JPMorgan stopped 0/132 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 132 NOTICES FOR 13,200 OZ or 0.4105 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,532 contracts for 1,153,200 oz (35.869 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 530 for 2,650,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $7.80//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 46 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 443.750 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY HUMONGOUS SIZED 1959CONTRACTS TO 125,339 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1688 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1688 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.03). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3627 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRANGE 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 0 CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR////NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.650 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.850 MILLION OZ/////HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ ZERO SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1668CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 828 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 days, total 19,491 contracts: OR 97.455 MILLION OZ (891 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 97.455 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1959 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1668 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1668 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP :+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.650 MILLION OZ+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.850 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3627 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1668 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT A HUGE (1668) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7203 CONTRACTS TO 472,950 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 943 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 7203 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $1.20 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 EX. FOR RISK /NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0 35.869 TONNES + 1.1665 EX FOR RISK = 37.0355 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2941 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$1.20 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,177 OI CONTRACTS (34.765 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3974CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 472,950
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,177 CONTRACTS WITH 7203 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 3974 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,177CONTRACTS OR34.765TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 2941 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3974 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (7203) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,177 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING 37.0355 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION BUT SOME ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2941 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 79,760 CONTRACTS OR 7,976,000 OZ OR 248.09 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3988 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 248.09TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 248.09/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1959 CONTRACTS OI TO 126,167 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A HUGE 1668 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 0and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1959 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1668 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3627 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 18,535 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE …..(SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.27 PTS OR 0.12% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 7.63 PTS OR 0.04% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 294.73 PTS OR 0.95% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.77 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3168 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3282 /Oil DOWN TO 84.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 89.34/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7203CONTRACTS TO 472,950 DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.20 ON FRIDAY.(PRICE OF GOLD ROSE AFTER THE COMEX CLOSE) OUR SHORT SPECULATORS COVERED LITTLE OF THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3974 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3974 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3974 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 11,177 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3974LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7203 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.20//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 2941 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (35.869 + 1.1665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 37.0355 tonnes) (ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $1.20) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD AVERY STRONG GAIN OF 11,177TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 34,765 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:35.869 TONNES + 1.1665 exchange for risk = 37.0375 tonnes// ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.20. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED —943 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,177 CONTRACTS OR 1,117,700 OZ OR 34.765 TONNES.
13,496.916 oz OZ BRINKS INCLUDES 100 KILOBARS BRINKS MALCA
I
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
15,987.234 oz BRINKS
No of oz served (contracts) today
132 notice(s) 13,200 OZ 0.4105 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts 0 oz 0.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,532 notices 1,153,200 OZ 35.869TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 1
i) Into Brinks: 15,987.234 oz
total customer deposits: 15,987.234 oz oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 3215.097 oz (100 kilobars)
ii) Out of Malca: 10,281.819 oz
total withdrawals 13,496.916 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 132 contracts having LOST 410 contracts. We had 419 contracts filed on Friday, so we gained 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
NOV lost 20 CONTRACTS to stand at 1426
December gained 3662 contracts up to 371,336 contracts.
We had 132 contracts filed for today representing 13,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 132 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,529 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (132 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 132 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,153,200 OZ OR 35.869 TONNES + 1.1665 tonnes exchange for risk = the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT i.e. 37.0355 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,529) x 100 oz + (132) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (132) x 100 oz) which equals 1,153,200oz standing OR 35.869 + 1.1665 TONNES= 37.035 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 37.035 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,852,754.49 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,954,255.253 (309.61 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,896,008.920 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,044,862(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 250.22 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 30
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
888,545.001 oz
Delaware Brinks CNT HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
5963.701 OZ DELAWARE
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S) (5000,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
530 Contracts (2,650,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware 5963.701 oz
total customer deposit 5963.701 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/269.114 million or 49.794%
Comex withdrawals 4
i) Out of Delaware 44,661.895 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 213,674.200 oz
iii) Out of CNT 29,999.306 oz
iv) HSBC 600,209.600 oz
total: 888,545.001 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.643 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 269,114 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 1 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 14 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 14 NOTICE FILED
ON FRIDAY, SO WE LOST ZERO CONTRACTS
NOVEMBER GAINED 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 443
DEC. LOST 762 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 93,523 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 60,212//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 50,203 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 530 x 5,000 oz = 2,650,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (1) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 530 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (1) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.650 million oz + .0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.2 million oz prior//new totals: 6.850 million oz.
There are 37.643 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 861.80 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
Where were you on March 9, 2022, when President Biden signed the death warrant on American freedom?
On that day, in a hushed ceremony at the White House without the approval of Congress, the states or the American people, Biden signed into law Executive Order 14067.
Buried in his order are a few paragraphs, titled Section 4. The language in Section 4 makes Order 14067 the most treacherous act by a sitting president in the history of our republic.
That’s because Section 4 sets the stage for legal government surveillance of all U.S. citizens, total control over your bank accounts and purchases and the ability to silence all dissenting voices for good.
In this new war on freedom, they aren’t coming for your guns. No, they’re thinking much bigger than that.
They’re coming for your money.
And it’s already started. These efforts are stepping up and taking on a nefarious tone that also involves surveillance and loss of our freedoms under the guise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), or Biden Bucks as I call them.
If you had asked me about this two years ago, I would have said the U.S. is taking a rather studious approach to it. It was too important to not be involved in, but the U.S. did not seem to be in any hurry to actually implement it.
There were studies, and I would have said my estimate at the time would have been, “OK, China has it. Europe, maybe another year. The U.S. might be three or four years down the road because the dollar’s too important. They don’t want to race into it. They want to get it right. There are a lot of ways to mess it up.”
But that’s changed under Joe Biden.
Biden has now fast-tracked this thing.
We’ve moved pretty quickly from what I would call a research phase to an implementation phase. So I give it the name Biden Bucks, because Joe Biden will prove to have been responsible for actually implementing this at a very quick tempo in the United States.
NOT Cryptocurrencies
CBDCs are digital money, not cryptocurrencies. The differences between CBDCs and crypto are important.
Cryptocurrencies are recorded on a blockchain, which is a particular type of ledger that shows every transaction ever made in each currency.
Cryptos also claim to offer anonymity and decentralization, which are said to be virtues but are actually fatal flaws because the “anonymity” is a greater cover for crime and fraud.
I worked with the U.S. Strategic Command to unravel crypto ownership when Isis was using digital tokens to finance its caliphate in 2015–2016. It’s not easy to pierce the veil, but it can be done.
By contrast, CBDCs do not use blockchain; they have a digital ledger accounting system, but it’s not a blockchain. They’re the opposite of decentralized; they are highly centralized under the control of a single issuer, usually a central bank.
There’s no anonymity. The issuer knows every account holder and every transaction — that’s the whole idea.
CBDCs are promoted on the idea that transactions are faster, cheaper and more secure when all money is digital and controlled by a government.
Compared with credit cards, debit cards, wire transfers, Venmo and PayPal, that may be true. Those systems have multiple intermediaries and layers of fees, so CBDCs may actually be able to streamline payments and make the payment system more efficient.
But while the government positions CBDCs as a benefit to consumers in performing transactions, including faster settlements, better security, ease of use and transaction costs that are lower than with cash, it’s also crucial to think through the implications of the technology and how it could negatively affect the economy and our individual rights.
The Death of Privacy
The first part of the hidden agenda is to eliminate cash. If you’re the government and you want the central bank digital currency to succeed, you have to eliminate cash because it’s your competition.
Cash is anonymous. If you pay for something with cash, the purchase can’t be directly tied to you. That’s not true of Biden Bucks.
The government knows exactly what you’re buying, to whom you’re making donations and (by extension) what you’re reading based on which books you buy, etc.
That means we’ve come very far down the road toward thought control, censorship and selective law enforcement against political enemies.
It’s a government that looks like the state ruled by Big Brother in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.
The government might want to freeze your account, they might want to seize your assets, they might want to put an expiration date on your money.
Imagine you get paid and the government says, “OK, you got the money. Nice job, but that money is going to evaporate or disappear if you don’t spend it in the next six months.” How’s that for a stimulus program?
None of these things is possible if there’s cash around. But if you get rid of cash and force everyone into a digital system, then you can do these kinds of things.
That means fiscal policy can actually be dictated by Biden Bucks. With total control of your money, the government can conduct fiscal policy at will.
What if the government wanted to stimulate the economy and increase the amount of consumer spending? They could simply send you a letter that states, for example, “You must spend $200 in the next 30 days or we will take $100 out of your account as a penalty.”
As most citizens will not want to risk losing $100, they will spend the amount requested and create stimulus in the economy as the government had wanted.
This could also work in the opposite direction. Say the government wanted to cool down the economy and not have as much money in circulation. They could encourage savings by requesting a certain balance in your account be kept and not spent.
If you went under that set balance, a penalty would be triggered.
Private Banks Are Pushing CBDCs
All that being said, the digital takeover of the financial system is not an all-or-nothing event, and it will happen in stages and not all at once. When the CBDCs are finally rolled out, it may be a bit of an anticlimax if private companies have already eliminated cash and invaded privacy on their own.
For example, the Italian bank Intesa SanPaolo has begun forcing customers to use an all-digital mobile phone service with no ability for customers to visit a branch or interact with a human bank official.
This is exactly what the world of CBDCs will be like except that a private bank will be doing the dirty work and not waiting for a government mandate. The CBDC effort in Europe will inevitably involve the European Central Bank (ECB) since they are the issuer of the euro and will be in charge of the digital ledger of transactions.
Still, private banks are not waiting for the ECB and are laying the groundwork today for a world without cash or human bankers.
All that’s left is a digital ledger and total surveillance of everything you do.
Again, the endgame for CBDCs would closely resemble George Orwell’s dystopian Nineteen Eighty-Four. It would be a world of negative interest rates, forced tax collection, government confiscation, account freezes and constant surveillance.
You might not be able to fight back easily in the world of Biden Bucks, but it can be done.
There is one nondigital, nonhackable, nontraceable form of money you can still use.
It’s called gold (and silver). I urge you to get your hands on some while you still can.
end
THE CYCLE OF EVIL
Egon von Greyerz October 30, 2023
We are on the inevitable road to perdition for the world economy & financial system, ending in a potential global conflict of uncontrollable proportions.
Evil begets evil as The Cycle of Evil hits countries at the end of an uncontrollable debt expansion.
The pattern throughout history has always been the same – countries and empires, without fail, become victims of their own success -failure, whether it was the Mongols, Ottomans or the British.
As real growth ceases, a country starts to finance expansion with debt until it cannot even afford the interest on the debt, never mind the capital which it has no intention to repay.
At some point, the people, fearing a war or terrorist attack will approve of the leader’s fear mongering by supporting unlimited debt issuance. This is now happening in the US with regard to Ukraine and Israel.
Neither the US nor Europe is taking a single step to remedy the situation. Both are now in the Cycle of Evil of more deficits, more debt, higher interest costs, leading to more deficits, more debt higher interest costs, leading to ……………..
The Cycle of Evil is also accompanied by decadence and moral decline where leaders invent problems that are not real such as climate change, ESG (environmental, social and governance), forced vaccines and incarcerations, 25 new genders and other woke issues etc.
Few Americans understand that the next stage of the Cycle of Evil is about to hit them.
And even fewer Europeans have a clue that they will be dragged down into the same debt collapse quagmire.
The next stage will involve many banks failing, more than the FDIC or government can afford to save without destroying both the Currency and the Bond Market,
A collapsing currency and sovereign debt paper that no investor wants to touch with a bargepole is hardly the right climate for massive debt issuance.
Most sovereign investors have already realised that they don’t want US debt at any interest rate.
So that means even higher interest rates, more debt issuance as the Cycle of Evil eventually turns to a “Final Collapse” as von Mises described:
THE CYCLE OF EVIL CONTAINS MORE CATACLYSMIC COMPONENTS THAN ANY SIMILAR CYCLE IN HISTORY.
Let us summarise where the world is:
GLOBAL CONFLICT
We have two wars both capable of leading to a major global conflict plus high risk of terrorism and jihads in the West. Just as with most global/world wars, there is no attempt at finding peace solutions.
To make things worse, there is not a single Statesman in the West capable of taking a lead in solving the conflicts.
DEBT COLLAPSE
We have a global debt burden of $330 trillion plus derivatives totaling $1.5-3 quadrillion with debt growing exponentially, especially in the US. This will very soon develop into a debt crisis and collapse of a heavily leveraged Western world plus Japan and China and also emerging markets.
CIVIL UNREST and CIVIL WAR
The downturn and eventual collapse in the global economy will lead to poverty, famine and misery for a great number of people in the West and Emerging Markets.
UKRAINE WAR
This war started as a local conflict but with a US backed putsch in 2014, throwing out the democratically elected Russian friendly leader, this was the beginning of a war between Russia and the US and not a local war.
The Minsk agreement brokered by Germany and France was supposed to settle the matter but as Merkel recently admitted, the intent was never to create peace but to give enough time for Ukraine to arm with the help of the US.
The US forced Europe to take sides, in spite of Europe’s (especially Germany’s) dependence on Russian energy.
We can blame Russia for invading or we can blame the US for provoking Russia.
Rather than to go into all the arguments who is right and who is wrong, best to accept that we now have a global conflict stemming from the Ukraine situation. The US has a reluctant Europe on its side – a Europe which is militarily and economically weak. Russia has China, Iran, North Korea and a few others, most probably a militarily superior group.
A bankrupt USA just sends more money and weapons but has zero intent to send peacekeepers.
Thus there is no end in sight but the independent reporting tells us that Ukraine is unlikely to have a chance against the superior Russian war machine.
In the meantime an estimated 500,000 troops in total have died plus many more wounded and civilian casualties.
And still no peace attempt.
If the warring country’s leaders led from the front, which has been common in history, they would probably be less inclined to sacrifice more lives including their own.
ISRAEL – PALESTINE WAR
This region has had ongoing conflicts throughout history. It was insoluble before 1948 and has become even more complex since 1948 when Israel was created.
Again, we have major powers involved with primarily the US and Europe supporting Israel and Iran, Turkey and major parts of the Arab-Muslim world supporting Palestine and also Russia.
The US is sending two aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean to assist Israel. But as a military expert pointed out, these are in modern warfare just two floating bathtubs which can be taken out easily by two missiles from for example Iran.
In this conflict there are also many casualties on both sides plus a massive number of Palestinians being homeless with little food or even medical help.
What makes this conflict even more serious is the major support in the West for the plight of the Palestinians. Massive protests in many countries can easily escalate to serious clashes or even civil war.
In addition, we can be certain that the massive migration from Muslim countries to the West will also contain many militant cells which could easily create havoc in the US and in many European countries.
Both Europe and the US basically has an open border policy for any migrant who wants to enter. But neither continent has the ability to properly take care of the migrants. This will risk both continents to be destabilised with both migrants and the native population not accepting the other side.
CHINA – TAIWAN
It is unlikely that China will abandon its claim that Taiwan rightfully belongs to them.
The US is already busy with two wars, assisting with an array of military equipment plus $100s of billions of financial aid. A third conflict with major US military involvement would be extremely unwelcome to the US government.
But that is exactly the right time to strike from China’s point of view.
China knows of course that seizing Taiwan, is likely to involve major US sanctions leading to reduced or no US imports from China leading to a major fall or collapse of global trade. It is doubtful that Europe or the rest of the world would comply with these sanctions.
It would also lead to freezing of China’s assets in the US of $1.7 trillion, including treasuries of $850 billion offset by US direct investments in China.
But if China seizes Taiwan, they would control 60% of the world’s semiconductor production and more importantly 90% of advanced semiconductors. This would be a very serious blow to US strategic industries including military equipment.
THE CYCLE OF EVIL HOLDS ALL COMPONENTS TO CREATE HELL ON EARTH
It is intellectually fascinating but humanly depressing to watch how all the pieces fall into place for a global conflict of a magnitude greater than WW1 or WW2.
It is frightening to see how one component after the next falls into place in the Cycle of Evil.
Nobody realised that the shooting of the Archduke of Austria-Hungary Franz Ferdinand in 1914 would be the catalyst for WW1.
Nor did anyone understand that Germany’s invasion of Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938-9 and of Poland on September 1, 1939 would lead to WW2.
The two major conflicts in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine today with Taiwan looming combined with no attempt of peacemaking plus a likely collapse of the global financial system and world economy is more than enough to create devastation for the world for the next decade or more.
Let us sincerely hope that all these events in the Cycle of Evil will not develop into global havoc.But even if that were to be avoided, it is absolutely certain that global risk today is higher than at any time since the 1930s.
WEALTH PRESERVATION
Most of us have little influence over the geopolitical or global economic situation.
Nor do most people have the flexibility to move to a lower risk area in regards to a conventional or nuclear war.
But anyone who has savings however small or big can at least protect some of their liquid assets.
As we have pointed out in many articles, physical gold and some silver is the only money which has survived and maintained its purchasing power for thousands of years.
Thus gold and silver are the perfect insurance and wealth preservation asset to protect against the coming problems.
It is critical to hold gold and silver outside a fractured financial system in the safest jurisdictions preferably outside your country of residence. It is important to be able to flee to your wealth preservation asset if there are problems in your own country.
It must also be kept in the safest vaults with direct personal access. Nuclear bomb proof vaults are an additional important protection but hard to find. We offer this in Switzerland for bigger investors.
As I have stressed in recent articles, WILL THIS FALL BE THE FALL OF FALLS, gold just fulfilled the technical projection of a small dip and is now on its way to much, much higher levels.
With Central Banks likely to switch their reserve assets from US dollars to gold, we will see a major revaluation of gold to probably multiples of the current price. See my important article: A DISORDERLY RESET WITH GOLD REVALUED BY MULTIPLES
HUMAN SUFFERING – HELP FAMILY AND FRIENDS
Sadly the coming conflict will lead to major human suffering both economically and humanly.
So helping family and friends is very important.
Also, remember that some of the best things in life are virtually free. In addition to family and friends, life offers so many wonderful things like nature, music, books, sports etc.
end
Jamie Dimon Craters Bank Stocks on Friday with Plans to Sell One Million Shares of JPMorgan Chase; Warren Buffett Isn’t Smiling
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 30, 2023 ~
Last Friday, at 6:32 a.m. ET, headlines started rolling with the news that Jamie Dimon, the long-tenured Chairman and CEO of the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, was going to start selling a significant part of his sizeable stock holdings in the bank next year. The revelation came in an 8K filing with the SEC and noted that he and his family “currently intend to sell 1 million shares,” leaving open the door that he and his family might decide to sell more.
The 8K filing also stated that “This is Mr. Dimon’s first such stock sale during his tenure at the company.” The reality is that Dimon, his wife and his Trusts held over 10 million common shares of JPMorgan Chase in 2017 according to SEC filings and now they hold 8.6 million shares, according to a May 2023 filing. Through some manner, selling or otherwise, their stock position has already been reduced significantly.
Markets already had plenty to be nervous about before the opening bell on Friday morning. Military tensions had heightened; the Dow had gone negative year-to-date; the S&P 500 had broken through key resistance at 4200; a Fed rate-setting meeting was just a few days away; and rising Treasury yields continued to suck money out of bank deposits and put banks’ holdings of older debt securities further underwater.
Friday morning was a time when John Pierpont Morgan of an earlier era would have made a statement to reassure markets. Instead, the man now sitting at the helm of the nation’s largest bank added to market instability by announcing he’s selling.
By the closing bell at 4 p.m. on Friday, here’s the damage that Dimon’s ill-timed decision to announce he’s dumping shares helped to create: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 366.7 points with help from one of its plunging components, JPMorgan Chase, which dropped $5.07 per share on the day. JPMorgan Chase’s total market value lost $14.65 billion for the day. Shareholders of other bank stocks similarly caught the fever to sell, likely figuring that Dimon had a lot of inside information that they did not. Among the hardest hit was the second largest bank in the U.S., Bank of America, which fell by 3.64 percent on the day and U.S. Bancorp, the fifth largest bank, which shed 3.56 percent by the closing bell. Regional bank stocks also had a bad day with Comerica down 3.29 percent; Zions Bancorp down 3.28 percent; Fifth Third Bancorp down 2.97 percent; and Regions Financial down 2.91 percent.
Warren Buffett was likely none too happy about Dimon’s decision to reprice bank shares on Friday. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns about $26 billion of Bank of America stock. Buffett dumped Berkshire’s large stake in JPMorgan Chase shares three years ago.
According to the 13F filing that Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the quarter ending December 31, 2019, it held 59.5 million shares of JPMorgan Chase with a total value at that time of $8.29 billion. By June 30 of 2020, that position had been trimmed by more than half, to 22.2 million shares. By September 30, 2020, one day after JPMorgan Chase had admitted to its fourth and fifth criminal felony counts in the prior six years, Berkshire Hathaway’s position in JPMorgan Chase tallied up to just under 1 million shares, a 98 percent reduction from the beginning of 2020, according to Berkshire Hathaway’s SEC filing. And by December 31, 2020, the last share of JPMorgan Chase had disappeared from Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F filing with the SEC.
Dimon’s slap in the face to the markets on Friday followed a year of unprecedented scandal at the bank. For much of this year, headlines have revealed deeply disturbing news of the bank’s cozy relationship with sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. While the bank was funneling over $5 million in hard cash to the registered sex offender without filing its legally-mandated Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) over the span of more than a decade, underage girls were being sexually assaulted and raped at Epstein’s mansions and then paid to keep quiet with the money dutifully doled out by JPMorgan Chase.
On September 26, the bank settled for $75 million the Jeffrey Epstein related claims brought by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands. It had settled class action claims brought by Epstein’s victims for $290 million in June. (The June settlement was so questionable that we initiated an inquiry into the presiding Judge, Jed Rakoff, who called it a “really fine settlement.”)
And, JPMorgan’s and Jamie Dimon’s troubles related to Epstein may not be over.
The criminal division of the U.S. Department of Justice had sufficient evidence in its possession in 2007 to bring federal sex trafficking charges against Epstein. Instead, the Justice Department crafted a cozy deal with the Florida State Attorney that saw Epstein spend just 13 months in the private wing of the Palm Beach County jail, with most of that time spent in a work release program where Epstein was driven in his limo to an office each day. Only after an investigative series in the Miami Herald went viral and created public outrage did the Justice Department file federal sex trafficking charges against Epstein on July 6, 2019. Epstein died a little more than a month later on August 10, 2019 in a Manhattan jail cell while awaiting trial. The New York City Medical Examiner ruled the death a suicide.
Since that time, the Justice Department’s actions have been assailed on a regular basis in books, newspaper articles, documentaries and by victims speaking out. Now that the U.S. Virgin Islands has effectively made the criminal case against JPMorgan Chase by obtaining in discovery the granular details of the money laundering operation the bank oversaw for Epstein, the criminal division of the DOJ is going to be hard pressed to explain why the bank’s activities with Ponzi kingpin Bernie Madoff warranted two criminal felony charges but money laundering by JPMorgan for Epstein to perpetuate more than a decade of sexual assaults on minors results in no criminal action against the bank.
There is also another potential Epstein-related threat facing the bank. A third federal lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase involving Epstein was dismissed by Judge Rakoff in August. That case was a shareholders’ class action that credibly alleged that the same members of JPMorgan’s Board of Directors who brought its long-tenured Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, to power, were also, verifiably, engaged in business with Jeffrey Epstein.
The lawsuit was dismissed on technical grounds by Judge Rakoff, who wrote that the plaintiffs failed to first make a demand on the bank’s Board of Directors or convincingly explain why that demand would have been futile. (In actuality, the plaintiffs had indeed explained in their complaint why that demand would have been futile: too many members of the Board were tainted by their business ties to Epstein.)
The shareholders’ lawsuit was brought by two pension funds that owned shares of JPMorgan Chase. It named Dimon as a defendant, as well as current and former members of JPMorgan Chase’s Board of Directors. It was brought by a prominent class action law firm that is not likely to go away so easily.
The lawsuit’s theory of the case is that specific members of the Board of JPMorgan Chase “put their heads in the sand” and ignored that the bank had become a cash conduit for Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking ring because they were hoping that their own business ties to Epstein “would go unnoticed.”
Adding to the culpability of JPMorgan’s Board of Directors is the simple fact that they have not fired Dimon, as either Chairman or CEO, despite the unprecedented crime spree that has taken place as he sat at the helm of the bank.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Top gold refiner exits Swiss industry group amid sourcing dispute
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-10-27 10:40Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eddie Spence Bloomberg News Friday, October 27, 2023
Valcambi SA has resigned from the Swiss gold refining association after a disagreement over where it sources its gold.
Ticino-based Valcambi left the Swiss Association of Precious Metal Manufacturers and Traders, which coordinates communication and lobbying on behalf of the industry and requires members to sign a code of conduct, due to “irreconcilable differences,” the association said in a statement.
Valcambi confirmed its departure in a statement today, which indicated the disagreement related to the origin of its gold supplies. Sourcing and supply chains have become a key focus in the gold market, given the difficulty in determining the origin of metal that often exists outside the banking sector and can be remelted countless times.
The world’s top precious metals refinery has faced scrutiny in recent years from local media and non-governmental organizations for sourcing gold from the United Arab Emirates, where opaque supply chains can make it difficult to determine whether the metal has been responsibly sourced. Other large Swiss refineries have stated policies against purchasing gold from the UAE.
“Valcambi doesn’t agree on the position of some members of the ASFCMP’s board to exclude certain countries of origin,” the company said in the statement. “Pretending gold from dubious origin will not enter in the Swiss market by excluding direct supplies from specific countries is not the correct approach.” …
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Rising wave of property defaults threatens hundreds of U.S. banks
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-10-27 11:02Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard The Telegraph, London Friday, October 27, 2023
America’s commercial property collapse is becoming a danger to the financial system.
Office blocks purchased with debt remain half empty, 18 months after the end of the pandemic. Thousands of buildings will have to be torn down. Hundreds of regional banks are sitting on crippling losses that they yet to acknowledge.
“It’s a train wreck in slow motion,” said Professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a property and finance expert at Columbia University
The return to the office isn’t happening. Data from turnstile swipes shows that occupancy levels are still just 49% of where they used to be. It has been stable for a year and a half,” he said.
Sensors tracking physical presence in offices tell the same story. Hybrid work is here to stay.
Lenders are still gambling on resurrection, a reflex of “extend and pretend” in the hope that office rents will recover and that struggling borrowers will be able to service their debts again. “Banks would do better to bite the bullet now because losses are going to be much worse in two years,” Professor Van Nieuwerburgh said.
His team calculates that America’s office stock has lost 40 to 45% of its pre-Covid value, or will have lost it once market discovery exposes the damage already in the pipeline from two parallel shocks: shrinking rents and the most aggressive monetary tightening of modern times.
“We are starting to see distressed sales every day. Offices are selling at 50, 60, or 70% discounts. At these values the equity holders are wiped out, and lenders take a 30% loss,” he said. …
LFTV: Only gold revaluation might vanquish the debt monster
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-10-28 16:40Section: Daily Dispatches
4:37p ET Saturday, October 28, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver is the guest on this week’s episode of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with host Shane Morand and London metals trader Andrew Maguire, discussing, among other things, the Western debt monster and the impossibility of servicing it, except maybe with gold revaulation, which Maguire is convinced is coming.
The program is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//
Jim Grant…
Gold’s About To Have Its Day: Jim Grant Warns No One’s Prepared For “Higher Yields For Much, Much, Much Longer”
The world is experiencing a historic surge in interest rates. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes the turmoil could be the beginning of a multi-decade bear market in bonds.
In this in-depth interview, he explains what the risks are – and where opportunities arise.
The spike was unexpected: In the US, the yield on 10-year treasuries is rising rapidly toward 5%, the highest level since 2007. From Europe to Japan to Australia, long-term interest rates are also trending upward almost everywhere in the world. There is much speculation about the causes. What is clear, however, is that this shock will not be without consequences.
«It raises the interesting possibility that we are embarked on a new bond bear market,» says Jim Grant, editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer». «Bonds are unusual in the world of financial assets as their prices historically tend to trend in generation-length intervals; something we don’t see so much in stocks or commodities», he adds.
In this in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been lightly edited for length and clarity, the seasoned expert on financial history explains what persistently higher interest rates could mean for investors, what risks are associated with this new environment and where long-term opportunities arise.
«I think gold ought not to trade as an inflation hedge, but as an investment in monetary disorder of which we surely have enough in the world»: Jim Grant.
Mr. Grant, «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer» is celebrating its 40th anniversary. What are you currently observing in connection with the massive surge in interest rates that the financial markets are experiencing?
Well, we certainly have something to observe. It’s been a long time, so I would say a couple of things. One is that the movement from interest rates bordering on nothing to interest rates knocking on the door of normal – that speed of rise – is something we have rarely, if ever, seen before. It’s like a car going from 0 to 60 mph in four seconds. So this is a very rapid and, one might conjecture, a very disruptive rise because it has been so fast.
How can this turmoil in the bond market be put into historical perspective?
It raises the interesting possibility that we are embarked on a new bond bear market. Bonds are unusual in the world of financial assets as their prices historically tend to trend in generation-length intervals; something we don’t see so much in stocks or commodities.
How did such generational cycles play out in the past?
In the United States, bond yields fell from around the end of the Civil War for 35 years to the end of the 19th century. Then, they rose very gradually for 20 years, whereupon they fell again from around 1921 to 1946. Next, the great post-war bond bear market began, taking yields all the way up to 15% in 1981. After that, the great bond bull market started that took yields down to 1% in 2021. Of course, in Europe and Japan yields on shorter-dated securities fell even well below zero, to the tune of $16 trillion of securities were priced to yield less than nothing.
What can be derived from this for today’s environment?
Going back about 150 years, there has been a succession of bond bull and bear markets, each one at least 20 years in length. So perhaps since 2021 we have begun a lengthy excursion to the upside in yields – and if that’s the case, the catch phrase ought to be not «yields for longer», but «yields for much, much, much longer». Then again, nothing says this exercise in pattern recognition necessarily guarantees any future outcome. But for what it is worth, this is one way to frame this most violent and dramatic rise in bond yields.
Why do you think a new cycle may have begun in the bond market?
Here’s one way to think about it: In 1981, President Reagan saw that the air traffic controllers’ union was threatening to strike. So he warned them not to strike, arguing it’s against the public and it’s illegal. The air traffic controllers struck anyway, so Reagan fired them all and brought in new ones. That was about the time when interest rates peaked. It was a marker of the times. Back then, we didn’t know that this was the end of a 45-year bond bear market. It was a symbolic end: President Reagan broke this important union. It was a change; it was like commodity prices breaking in 1980.
And what does this have to do with the current situation?
Fast forward to today, another President, Joe Biden, goes out to Detroit. He walks the picket line in solidarity with the strikers of the auto union, encouraging them: «Hang in there, you got it!» To me, that is another sign of the times, another kind of omen. So it might just be that we are embarked on rates much, much, much higher for much, much, much longer. And, it might just be that we are embarked on not just a cycle of inflation but an age of inflation.
So should we expect further tremors in the bond market?
We’ve just talked about how fast this bond bear market we’re hypothesizing about has been to date. But we haven’t talked about the tempo. For instance, at the beginning of the previous bond bear market in 1964, it took ten years for the yield on long-dated treasuries to go from 2¼% to 3¼%. So nothing says that the current rate of speed is going to continue. As a matter of fact, it can’t continue because otherwise rates would need three digits to write them down. So based on form, on the historical precedent, the tempo is going to be very measured at times. In other words, it might just be that for a certain time, the bond market won’t be very dramatic at all. Yet, it won’t go back to 2%, which will be good for some people, not good for others, but in any case, very different from what we’ve seen over the last four decades.
What are the consequences of this fundamental change for investments?
During the course of not one investment career, but rather one and a half investment careers, the whole world has become accustomed to interest rates basically only going in one direction. Of course, there was plenty of volatility along the way, but persistent, if not continuous declines in rates have been the norm for the careers and investment minds of most living human beings. Consequently, expectations are deeply embedded in our collective psyche that rates do one thing, which is to decline. Yet here we are, observing them go up. So it’s no wonder that many people don’t exactly want to believe it. It’s highly irregular, and not at all in the way of our collective experience going back many, many years.
So how will this change the environment for investment?
During the great protracted bond bull market beginning in 1981, bonds and stocks could reliably be expected to move inversely from one another: Stocks would go up, bonds down, and vice versa. As a result, bonds provided a nice hedge or cushion to one’s equity exposure. That was the case for a long time, and it was especially attractive when bonds were yielding something. Indeed, long-dated treasuries yielded 14% as recently as 1984, and as much as 10% as recently as 1987. So for many of the past forty years, bonds not only provided a portfolio balance, but also delivered a substantial measure of interest income along the way.
And today?
This advantageous arrangement ended, or at least became much less advantageous, during the long period of zero percent rates and QE: Bonds yielded very little and might have provided some cushion, if stocks decline. But there was no great interest income for a long time from one’s bond position. Today however, there is a possibility that bonds and stocks could decline at the same time, as was the case for many years in the last bond bear market, beginning in the late Sixties and continuing into the early Eighties. So correlations could change. The popular 60/40 portfolio could deliver disappointing returns, rather than persistently attractive ones – and that too would be a big change in the investment weather.
That’s not exactly an uplifting outlook.
This is not to say that in a time of persistently rising yields, there aren’t some distinct advantages from the saver’s, the long-term investor’s point of view. One of the classics of fixed income investing is a book called «Inside the Yield Book» by Martin Leibowitz and Sidney Homer. It came out at a time when yields were printed and bound in books, before the digital era, the Bloomberg era. Chapter one of the 1972 edition of «Inside the Yield Book» is entitled «Interest on Interest». It describes the arithmetic of a bond investor investing semi-annual coupons at rising rates of interest, pointing out that interest on interest for long periods can contribute as much as one half of the total return. It points out further that in times of rising yields, the yield to maturity is going to be higher than the yield at which you purchased the bond because you will be investing not at the coupon rate, but at ever increasing rates.
How exactly does this compounding effect work?
Let’s say, you buy a 6% bond maturing in thirty years. In a bond bull market with continually declining interest rates, you reinvested that 6% coupon in ever lower rates and thereby ever lower returns. So the yield to maturity was not 6%, but something less than that. Now, imagine you purchase that same security today in an environment with persistently, if not continuously rising rates over the next thirty or forty years. The rate you earn on that coupon won’t be 6%. It’s likely to be something higher, and therefore your yield to maturity is going to be better than 6%.
So a bear market in bonds also brings benefits?
Indeed. For investors, it opens up another new vista to come: opportunities for interest on interest. Of course, this does not apply to people who need coupon income to pay their rent and buy their groceries. But for savers, for pension funds, for sovereign wealth funds, for people who are in the business of reinvesting their interest income this is a not-disadvantageous thing, this bond bear market. But again, to re-emphasize: This is all hypothetical, I don’t want to sound like some cocksure dogmatic prophet, which I assure you I am not.
But let’s assume you are correct in your thesis on the future development of interest rates. In principle, do bonds therefore offer an attractive alternative to equities in the portfolio?
Yes, what is old will be new again. Bonds really earn something besides nothing or less than nothing which was the case for a long time. But as mentioned earlier, it’s going to take some time getting used to it. So far, the stock market pretends not to notice. This seems surprising. As we point out in a recent issue of «Grant’s», the volatility of the bond market is very elevated, whereas the volatility of the stock market is very subdued. So you have to ask yourself: How can complacency reign in junior securities, when anxiety is the mood in the market of senior securities? This doesn’t make intuitive sense.
Where could the pressure of rising rates cause major problems?
I suspect that this most sudden and even violent lurch higher in interest rates is going to test financial structures that came into being during the period of very low nominal interest rates. Think of what all came into being, when money was proverbially free from 2010 to 2021: Cryptocurrencies flourished, dito venture capital and private equity. There were no constraints on sovereign debt issuance, so public credit was expanded dramatically. Interest expense seemed to be forever minimal and not worrisome because, after all, rates would never rise. To some degree, the entire world was capitalized on the expectation of extremely low interest rates.
And how do things look now?
All that has changed, but not in the expectations yet. I think people are still trying to deal with the shock of the perception of the possibility of much higher rates for a long time. Not every company has had to refinance so far, not every private equity company has met a hostile reception in the credit markets, and not every country has had to face the consequences of a potentially ruinously high national invoice for interest expense. All this is still in the making. So I’m not so quick to believe that this rise in rates, as dramatic as it has been, is going to be solitary or helpful just to savers. No, I think it’s a much, much deeper phenomenon and we’ll learn more about it in the coming fiscal quarters and years. That’s for sure.
With the crisis facing British pension funds and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, we have already seen two situations with major turmoil. Do you expect further stress in the system?
Who knows, but the protracted selloff in US treasuries is properly raising concerns that the March regional banking crisis never ended but only took the summer off. All-time low interest rates beguiled, seduced and even coerced people into doing things they would not have done perhaps except for interest rates that were not the product of the marketplace but rather the product of the models of the central bankers of the world. The problem with 4%, 5% and 6% interest rates today is not 4%, 5% and 6% on their face. The real problem is the preceding regime of zero percent rates, and the debt accumulation that those rates fostered and brought into being.
Then again, interest rates could also fall again. Or to put it another way: What are the specific forces that could foster a long bear market in bonds?
One cause might be an embedded, what they call, structural inflation. If inflation is part of the times, the spirit of the age, that could be one driver. Another cause could be a deterioration of public credit. For a long time, the United States has been in the privileged position of being the one and only superpower and the issuer of the one and only reserve currency of the world. But in its humanity, America is not so very different from other countries.
What do you mean by that?
Essentially, the privilege of consuming much more than you produce is sort of the poisoned chalice gift of a reserve currency. It’s like saying: All right, you can pay your bills in your currency you alone can produce and the world will accept it because of your evident strength and enterprise and power. If Uganda, Britain, Singapore or even Switzerland was given this privilege, I imagine any other country would have done the same. But what we have done in America is that we brought up immense net international debts and very large domestic sovereign debts. So altogether a lot of debts, financed with the dollar which – as we convinced ourselves – is kind of the Coca-Cola or Microsoft of monetary world brands. That’s a very seductive thing to have come to believe.
So the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is proving to be a curse?
When we speak about the troubles in public credit, that’s another way of saying there are more bonds on offer than are demanded at prevailing rates of interest. The United States has been downgraded by Standard & Poors’ and by Fitch, and Moody’s maybe would prefer to do the same. America is a Triple-A country in many respects. The Statue of Liberty, the Declaration of Independence, you can’t downgrade those. It’s part of the whole business model of this country, and it’s a pretty good business model. But financially speaking, we have taken advantage of these things; the things that make America truly what it is – not the financial gimmicks that make us more encumbered than we ought to be.
Nevertheless, the US economy is doing remarkably well by international comparisons. This is despite the fact that virtually everyone had feared that the economy would cool down significantly as a result of rising interest rates.
I thought that combination of an inverted yield curve and the contraction of monetary growth together were pretty strong signals of a pending recession. So again, it turns out there are no surefire indicators. But obviously, a recession will come at some time, and I think it will have its origins in the unhealthy capital structures caused by the suppression of interest rates and the distortion that suppression has brought about over the course of more than a decade. To me, that’s going to be the proximate cause of the next financial difficulties, being part and parcel of the next recession.
What is the best way to navigate this environment as a European investor based in Zurich, for example?
I would think that you would continue to look at companies in a company-by-company way. However, you would not be ignorant of the fact that the spread between the American equity market cap and the market cap of the rest of the world is at a record high. So everyone owns America already, and has been well paid for that. But it’s a big world, and there might be opportunities elsewhere as well as in America.
Where else do you spot attractive opportunities for investments?
Here’s a question: When you’re looking around for a currency, if you want to hold money in some form, are you really sure you want to hold it in dollars, or in competing fiat currencies? In this regard, I might have mentioned gold once or twice before in our previous conversations. So I would say to the gnomes of Zurich: Don’t forget what got you here! Don’t turn your little backs on gold. But seriously, I think that gold is going to have its day. It really has not had its day yet, as I see it.
Gold has experienced a strong surge in recent weeks. What speaks for further gains?
I think gold ought not to trade as an inflation hedge, but as an investment in monetary disorder of which we surely have enough in the world. So it’s a question of getting people interested in the problem, and then in the solution. If you want to go back and look at the long cycles, it might just be that the fifty odd years since the end of Bretton Woods and the end of the dollar’s convertibility to gold, that that cycle is ending. It might be that paper money in the historians’ retro perspective views will seem to have been a failure and that the world is going to charge back on unconstrained central bank credit creation and unconstrained sovereign borrowing. Maybe, that’s one way to look at it. It’s the way I tend to look at these things: longer-term, historical trends – and fifty years in the history of money is about the blink of an eye.
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: ORANGE JUICE
‘Sell Mortimer, Sell’ – Orange Juice Prices Hit Another Record High, Up 10%
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 01:40 PM
Orange juice futures hit a record high of $4.1195 per pound, up 10% on Monday morning. The frozen orange juice concentrate has soared 388% since March 2020 as weather and disease crush citrus supply in Florida, the biggest producer of oranges in the US.
David Branch of Wells Fargo recently told Yahoo Finance that Florida’s orange crop is expected to come in around 713,000 tons, the smallest since the 1936-37 season. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a 33% decline in citrus production for the 2022-23 season compared to last year’s crop.
“Given where current [frozen concentrate orange juice] futures are trading coupled with lower domestic supply from Florida, I don’t see prices coming down anytime soon,” Branch added.
Also, hurricanes that slammed Florida in the last few years have wrecked citrus grove production in the Sunshine State. Brazil and Mexico have ramped up citrus exports to the US in recent quarters, but new estimates show yields have been lowered due to bad weather.
For consumers who are watching OJ prices at the supermarket soar higher and higher, it could take several years for supply woes to be alleviated, according to Luis Ribera, an economist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, who spoke with Yahoo Finance.
“If you’re already part of a big player, you’re going to invest more into your orchards,” Ribera said, adding, “You would expect that in the next couple of years, things are going to get a lot better.”
We suspect hyperinflating OJ prices will result in consumer behavior to shun this breakfast staple, which could ultimately drive prices lower.
END
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3168
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3282
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.27 PTS OR 0.12%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 7.63 PTS OR 0.04%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 294.73 PTS OR 0.95 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.38 EURO RISES TO 1.0574 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.887 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.75/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.831***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.756*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.902…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.122
3j Gold at $1993.60 silver at: 23.16 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.96//
3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 89 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.08// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.873% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9046 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9567 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.885 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.045 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.048 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.24…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 9 BASIS PTS AT 4.634
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Rise, Oil Falls On Hopes Israel Ground Assault In Gaza Will Be “Contained”
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 08:18 AM
Ending a week that saw the S&P be the most overshorted in history, with Goldman PB reporting that its HF clients had shorted stocks for a record 12 consecutive weeks, it was inevitable that we would get an oversold bounce at some point and this morning we are seeing just that, with stocks in Europe broadly higher, and US equity futures also rising and reversing all of Friday’s loss. As of 7:45am, S&P futures were higher by 0.7%, Nasdaq futures gained 0.8% and the Estoxx rose 0.8% in early London session with gains led by utilities and energy; WTI futures were lower by 1.1% on the day because the complacent market downplayed the Israeli ground offensive into Gaza as “less aggressive than feared.” Ahead of a very busy week, JPM summarizes sentiment as follows: “are futures potentially setting up a relief rally into month-end or does the selling pressure continue with SPX under its 200dma.” Gold slipped below $2,000 an ounce, the dollar dropped as bitcoin gained and ten-year Treasury yields resumed their grind higher to 4.86% ahead of today’s Treasury issuance projections statement.
In premarket trading, HSBC was steady after the bank’s further share buyback of as much as $3 billion offset news of a pretax profit of $7.71 billion that fell short of analyst estimates. Cisco shares are little changed after the digital communications technology company was downgraded to market perform from outperform at Raymond James. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
AbbVie climbs 1% as it is raised to overweight from equal-weight at Barclays, with the broker calling Friday’s selloff in the drugmaker’s stock “an over-reaction.”
Check Point Software shares are down 3.1% after the security software company reported third-quarter results that analysts see as mixed, with billings singled out as weaker than expected.
Datadog shares are down 0.8%, after Baird downgraded the cloud software company to neutral from outperform.
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals gains 18% after saying the company’s Phase 3 study of vimseltinib met the primary endpoint and all key secondary endpoints.
Krispy Kreme shares drop 0.9% after the donut company is downgraded to hold from buy at Truist Securities, which said it has a difficult time recommending the stock until the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs becomes more apparent.
Meta rose as much as 1.9% on plans to offer people in the EU, EEA and Switzerland the option to pay a monthly subscription to use Facebook and Instagram without any ads, the company says in a statement.
Miromatrix Medical shares soar 224% to $3.37 as United Therapeutics agreed to buy the firm for $3.25 per share in cash for an aggregate of about $91 million, according to a press release.
Newell Brands shares decline 0.9% after the household-products maker was downgraded at JPMorgan and Truist Securities, with the former seeing demand taking longer to recover than anticipated.
ON Semiconductor shares are down 4.1%, after the semiconductor device company gave a fourth-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected in terms of both adjusted earnings and revenue. It also reported its third-quarter results.
ReAlpha Tech shares jump 34% as the property technology startup began its second week of trading following a direct listing on the Nasdaq last week. If the gains hold, it will snap a four-day losing streak.
Sanofi to purchase $30 million of ordinary shares of MeiraGTx Holdings at a price of $7.50 per share.
Spirit Realty Capital gains 13% as Realty Income agreed to buy the firm in an all-stock transaction at an enterprise value of about $9.3b.
Western Digital shares surge 14% after the company forecast operating expenses for the second quarter; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
As usual we start with geopolitics, where instead of a massive ground invasion, newsflow over the weekend revealed that the Israeli military has started slowly and according to Bloomberg, “so far there are few signs that the conflict will spread across the wider Middle East region” (the shekel took a pause from recent selling, gaining 0.4% at 4.0566 but remains the world’s worst-performing currency this month, recently hitting 11-year lows). That’s being seen as enough good news for investors to wade back into markets after last week’s sharp selloff, which sent the S&P 500 into a correction on Friday after the index closing 10% below a recent peak.
“The relatively contained operations over the weekend were perhaps a relief to markets, who are worried about other players being dragged into the conflict,” said James Rossiter, global head of macro strategy at TD Securities. “That should bode well for some risk assets. That said, there are definitely a few risk events for markets to chew on this week.”
Still, stocks globally have lost $12 trillion in value since the end of July – aka since the Fed’s last rate hike – as concern mounts that central banks’ “higher-for-longer” interest-rate policies may tip the global economy toward a recession. The S&P 500 entered a technical correction and Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said investors hoping for a boost to stocks by the end of the year will be disappointed.
The week also includes a slew of potentially market-moving events for investors to track, including central bank meetings in Japan, the US and the UK, while the US Treasury Department announces its quarterly bond sales plan. Concern that central banks’ “higher-for-longer” interest-rate policies may tip the global economy toward a recession.
Government bonds have also tumbled, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting a 16-year high last week, despite signals from policy makers they’re “at or near” the end of rate hikes. Bond yields remain high even after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war three weeks ago – the kind of geopolitical flashpoint that can spur haven demand for Treasuries. On Monday, the Treasury will set the stage for its issuance plans with an update of quarterly borrowing estimates, and for its cash balance.
European stocks also rose, with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.7% as all 20 sectors rise after data showed German inflation eased further, while its economy shrank in the third quarter, as Europe slides into its next recession. Travel & leisure and retail sectors the biggest gainers, while automotive shares gained the least. Siemens Energy is among top performers, rebounding after its board chairman moved to reassure investors over state aid concerns. Here are the most notable European movers:
Siemens Energy rise as much as 17% after its supervisory board chairman said the renewables firm doesn’t need state money, following last week’s selloff on worries over it might need state aid
Dassault Systemes gains as much as 3.9% after JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, saying the software firm’s license sales growth has improved and large deals have returned
Clariant gains 3.1% after it reported adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter that beat estimates. Analysts say the Swiss specialty chemicals company reported a surprisingly strong performance
Ascential gains as much as 38% after the UK media company proposes a sale of its digital commerce business to Omnicom Group, and to sell its consumer trend-spotting WGSN unit
Erste Bank advances as much as 2.6%, the second-best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the Austrian lender raised its net interest income guidance for 2023
TomTom shares jump as much as 8.1% after the navigation firm announced a €50 million buyback. ING says the buyback follows a strong set of results in the third quarter
Glencore climbs after the natural resources company reaffirms its guidance for adjusted marketing pre-tax profit. Liberum says current trading is giving it a “sound footing” into year-end
Rightmove gains as much as 4.3% after Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold and says concerns over increased competition for the property listings portal are overdone
ArcelorMittal shares fall as much as 5.5% after the Kazakh government announced plans to take over the company’s operations in the country following its worst mining accident in recent history
Merck KGaA shares drop as much as 5.2% to the lowest since May 2021, as analysts cut their price targets on the German biotech company ahead of next week’s results
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as weak corporate earnings took center stage amid continued concerns over high US interest rates, geopoliitcal tensions and China’s economy.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6%, with Toyota and Alibaba among the biggest drags.
China’s Shanghai Comp and the Hang Seng were both initially lower with financials pressured after mixed earnings from some of the large banks including China’s biggest commercial lender ICBC which posted flat profit for Q3, while there was turbulence in Evergrande shares owing to a wind-up hearing which was adjourned to December 4th. Nonetheless, the declines were stemmed in the mainland amid hopes of improving US-China ties after US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November.
Japan was among the hardest hit, amid disappointing earnings from the likes of machinery maker Komatsu, while yields edged higher as the BoJ kick-started its ‘live’ 2-day policy meeting.
Australia’s ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in energy and the top-weighted financial sector although the index moved off intraday lows as participants also digested stronger-than-expected Australian Retail Sales data.
Indian stocks began the week with gains as buying in market heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank helped the key gauges rebound from early losses amid a mixed trend in global equities. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 64,112.65 at the close in Mumbai, after falling as much as 0.6% soon after trading began. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by a similar measure. Last week, the Sensex’s relative strength index fell to oversold zone, suggesting a likelihood of a pullback.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Aussie is the strongest of the G-10 currencies after retail-sales data beat estimates, an outcome that may boost the Reserve Bank of Australia’s confidence that the economy can withstand further interest-rate hikes. The Swiss franc was the weakest. The recent rebound in the Aussie “is spurred by higher iron ore prices, rising expectations for the RBA to deliver one more rate hike,” strategists at Malayan Banking Bhd. led by Saktiandi Supaat wrote in a research note. “We see more room for upside than down” for AUD/USD, they said. The Swedish krona underperformed G10 counterparts after a flash estimate showed the economy was stagnant last quarter
In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve, with losses led by front and belly, unwinding a portion of Friday’s sharp 5s30s steepening move. US yields cheaper by up to 5.5bp across belly of the curve, with 5s30s spread flatter by 3bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.88%, cheaper by 4bp vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts outperforming by 5.5bp and 2bp in the sector. Safe-haven demand eased for Treasuries, pushing yields slightly higher after the market lulled itself into complacency again, and instead of believing in a ceasefire any moment, today the narrative was that “Israel’s military action in Gaza proceeded more cautiously than anticipated.” At this rate anything else that mushroom clouds will be bullish. Meanwhile, bunds are higher, the curve bull steepening as S&P futures advance, boosted by German state inflation readings that point to a lower-than-expected national CPI print later today. Data also showed the German economy shrank in the third quarter.
In commodities, oil prices fell, along with gold and Treasuries. WTI falls 1.2% to trade near $84.50. Spot gold drops 0.5%. Iron-ore futures traded in Singapore rose after posting their first weekly gain in more than a month amid optimism that China’s authorities will step up their efforts to support growth
US economic data includes October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30 a.m. New York time; employment cost index, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, ISM manufacturing, factory orders and jobs report also due this week. Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Nov. 1 rate decision; Treasury quarterly debt refunding announcement also due Nov. 1
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,159.00
MXAP down 0.3% to 151.72
MXAPJ up 0.1% to 475.96
Nikkei down 1.0% to 30,696.96
Topix down 1.0% to 2,231.24
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,406.36
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,021.55
Sensex up 0.3% to 64,000.81
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,772.93
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,310.55
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 432.56
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.79%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0550
Brent Futures down 1.0% to $89.57/bbl
Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,993.85
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 106.69
Top Overnight News
Foreign direct investment into China is falling across multiple measures, adding to pressure on Beijing and local governments as they seek to counter an economic slowdown. Financial Times calculations based on Chinese commerce ministry data compiled by Wind show that FDI fell 34 per cent to Rmb72.8bn ($10bn) year on year in September, the biggest decline since monthly figures became available in 2014. FT
More than 30 Chinese listed companies unveiled share buyback and purchase plans over the weekend while major mutual fund house E Fund Management Co said it would invest in its own product as Beijing steps up efforts to put a floor under a sliding stock market. RTRS
Spain’s headline CPI for Oct comes in at +3.5% headline, 30bp below the Street’s +3.8% forecast, while core drops to +5.2% (down from +5.8% in Sept and below the Street’s +5.6% forecast); German regional CPIs tumble in Oct vs. Sept, including Baden Wuerttemberg +4.4% (down from +5.1% in Sept), Bavaria +3.7% (down from +4.1% in Sept), Hesse +3.6% (down from +4.7% in Sept), and North Rhine Westphalia +3.1% (down from +4.2% in Sept). BBG
The United Auto Workers called a fresh strike at a General Motors factory in Tennessee, a surprise walkout after negotiators had been working nearly around the clock to finalize a new contract this weekend. WSJ
Daniel Hagari, Israel Defense Forces spokesman, said on Sunday that Israel had sent more troops into Gaza overnight and combat operations were continuing in the north of the strip. “We are advancing in the stages of the war, according to our plan,” he said. “We are gradually expanding our ground operations.” FT
Iran appears committed to offering full diplomatic support to Hamas. But militarily, its strategy is more nuanced. American officials said that Iran was trying to carefully calibrate attacks by its proxy forces, so they did not start a wider war but still diverted resources away from Israel’s effort in Gaza. NYT
Oleg Tsaryov, the person Russia planned to install as leader of Ukraine if its war proved successful, was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt. NYT
Heavy-hitting investors are snapping up US government bonds with longer maturities, betting the pain in the Treasury market is nearly over and an elusive slowdown in the US economy may be on the horizon. Money managers including Pimco, Janus Henderson, Vanguard and BlackRock are taking the plunge — a bold bet after a multi-month rout in bond prices that has repeatedly wrongfooted asset managers and sent the 10-year Treasury yield above 5 per cent this week for the first time since 2007. FT
OpenAI seals deal for San Francisco office space (the city’s largest office lease since 2018) after CEO Sam Altman calls remote work ‘experiment’ one of tech industry’s worst mistakes. Fortune
Goldman’s PB data from last week highlights that mega cap tech stocks (the “Mag 7”) collectively saw the largest notional net selling since early September, driven by short sales and to a lesser extent long sales (2.5 to 1). The Mag 7 stocks collectively now make up 18.5% of total US single stock net exposure on the Prime book, down modestly from the record high level of ~20% seen in Jul ’23 but still elevated vs. history in the 96th percentile on a 5-year lookback.
A more detailed look at global markets
APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed but with the major indices mostly in the red as geopolitics continued to dominate headlines ahead of month-end and this week’s slew of upcoming risk events. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in energy and the top-weighted financial sector although the index moved off intraday lows as participants also digested stronger-than-expected Australian Retail Sales data. Nikkei 225 suffered as yields edged higher and the BoJ kick-started its ‘live’ 2-day policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially lower with financials pressured after mixed earnings from some of the large banks including China’s biggest commercial lender ICBC which posted flat profit for Q3, while there was turbulence in Evergrande shares owing to a wind-up hearing which was adjourned to December 4th. Nonetheless, the declines were stemmed in the mainland amid hopes of improving US-China ties after US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November.
Top Asian News
US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November in San Francisco. Furthermore, Wang Yi said both sides hope Sino-US relations will stabilise as soon as possible, while he added that the road to San Francisco will not be smooth and is not on autopilot.
Japanese Trade Minister Nishimura said G7 agreed to build reliable supply chains for critical minerals and chips to reduce dependency on a particular country.
China’s Embassy in Japan said G7 members undermine the level playing field and disrupt the security and stability of global production and supply chain, which followed calls by the G7 for a repeal of Japanese food bans.
Japan keeps overall view on economy for October, saying it is recovering moderately; Japan warns middle east situation could affect economy via energy cost.
European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, began the week on the front foot after a mixed APAC handover. Focus since has been on the geopolitical front and data, with reports of tanks around Gaza City briefly halting sentiment for the region. Sectors are all in the green with no overarching bias, Energy and Banks lagged initially given benchmarks and an update from JPM on the European sector respectively. Stateside, futures are in the green ES +0.6% ahead of the latest Treasury Estimates before Wednesday’s refunding announcement. As it stands, the NQ is experiencing some modest outperformance and perhaps aided by the modest EGB bid on data.
Top European News
ECB’s Vujcic said the ECB is finished with rate hikes for now and that a bigger part of hikes have already been transmitted to households and businesses, while he added that 2% inflation is attainable by 2025 and that they held rates as they have hiked adequately, according to an interview with Croatian state broadcaster HRT1.
ECB’s Kazimir says it is too soon to declare victory and say the job is done; additional tightening could arise if data forces the ECB; bets on rate cuts happening already in H1-2024 are entirely misplaced. December forecasts are one of the milestones, March is the next – only then will the ECB be able to say the tightening cycle is completed and move on to the monitoring phase.
ECB’s Simkus, when asked about December, reiterates that unless especially surprising data comes up, current levels of restriction is sufficient.
SNB: As of 1 December 2023, will lower the threshold factor for the remuneration of sight deposits of account holders subject to minimum reserve requirements from 28 to 25. The changes have no impact on the current monetary policy stance. Thus, the entire minimum reserve requirement will now no longer be remunerated, irrespective of whether it is met using cash or sight deposits.
Fitch affirmed France at AA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Sweden at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Bulgaria at BBB; Outlook Stable.
FX
Dollar drifts ahead of busy agenda into month end and early November as DXY straddles 106.50 within a 106.71-42 range.
Aussie outperforms after much stronger than expected final retail sales add to rationale for RBA rate hike.
AUD/USD solid around 0.6350 and AUD/NZD elevated mostly above 1.0900.
Yen and Euro conscious of decent option expiries nearby as USD/JPY pivots 149.50 on the eve of BoJ and EUR/USD grinds higher between 1.0548-86 parameters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1781 vs exp. 7.3165 (prev. 7.1782)
Eskom’s CEO Cassim said they must delay plans to wind down its ageing coal power plants in order to reduce the number of blackouts, according to the FT.
Fixed Income
Debt futures fade to varying degrees after extending recovery rally in early EU trade.
Bunds and EGB peers still firm as latter holds within 128.68-129.43 range.
Gilts retreat below par between 93.30-92.75 parameters and T-note closer to 106-05+ bottom than 106-14+ top.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid an unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that baked in on Friday, as the weekend lacked any major regional escalation.
Crude markets remain heavy with WTI Dec around USD 84/bbl (in a USD 83.71-85.30/bbl range), while Brent Jan trades under USD 88/bbl (in a USD 87.51-88.94/bbl parameter).
Spot gold has, in a similar way to crude, been unwinding some geopolitical risk premium with prices back under the USD 2,000/oz mark from a USD 2,006/oz intraday high, and still within Friday’s USD 2,009.56-1,976.92/oz range; base metals are higher across the board following a pick-up in sentiment after the European cash open.
Saudi Arabia may refrain from raising its flagship oil price for Asian customers for the first time in six months as refinery margins weaken across the region which undercuts demand for physical cargoes, according to Bloomberg.
The EU and UK are seeking a ban on subsidies for fossil fuel projects, according to FT.
Russia’s Medvedev said Europe’s energy cooperation with Russia has been ruined or frozen for a very long time and that hard times have come for the EU, while he added that the EU can no longer act on its own and that energy cooperation with the EU is pointless, according to Reuters.
Chevron (CVX) Australia spokesperson said proposed enterprise agreements for frontline field operations employees at Gorgon and Wheatstone gas facilities were backed by a majority of employees in a vote.
Geopolitics
Israel-Gaza
Israeli tanks on the outskirts of Gaza City block the road between the north and south of the Strip, according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP; Israeli tanks are now stationed in the central Gaza Strip, according to Al Arabiya.
“Israeli artillery shelling on the western sector of southern Lebanon and throwing phosphorous shells”, according to Sky News Arabia citing its correspondent; Israeli artillery shells Wadi Shebaa with phosphorus shells, according Ashaq News.
Israel’s Military spokesperson says we are gradually moving ahead according to plan, forces deployed across the northern border and prepared for any scenario.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said the ongoing ground operation in Gaza is the second stage of the war and said the war inside the Gaza Strip will be difficult and long, while he added that contacts to secure the hostage release are continuing even during the ground operation.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said the army is inflicting heavy blows on Hamas and they have no interest in expanding the war but are prepared on all fronts.
Israel conducted a strike on a military base in the western Daraa countryside in Syria where Iranian militias are stationed Furthermore, IDF carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to the rocket and missile fire on northern Israel.
US Marine rapid response force is moving towards the eastern Mediterranean, according to officials cited by CNN amid concerns the war in Gaza is broadening into a regional conflict.
US President Biden spoke with Egyptian President El-Sisi and briefed him on US efforts to ensure that regional actors do not expand the conflict in Gaza, while the leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza. It was separately reported that President Biden said the US is ready to take further action following attacks by Iran-linked groups against US forces in Iraq and Syria, according to Reuters.
White House’s National Security Adviser Sullivan said it is unacceptable to have extremist settler violence against innocent people in the West Bank and that the US believes Israeli PM Netanyahu has the responsibility to rein in extremist settlers in the West Bank.
UK PM Sunak and French President Macron discussed in a call the importance of getting urgent humanitarian support into Gaza and expressed their shared concern at the risk of escalation in the wider region, in particular in the West Bank.
French Foreign Ministry said France strongly condemns attacks by settlers that have led to the deaths of several Palestinian civilians over the past few days in the West Bank, while it called on Israeli authorities to take immediate measures to protect the Palestinian population.
UAE asked the UN Security Council to meet as soon as possible following Israel’s expanded ground operation in Gaza and condemned the ground operation, according to Reuters.
Jordan’s army said the kingdom asked the US to deploy Patriot air defence systems to help bolster border defences, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan told a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul that Hamas is not a terrorist organisation and that Israel is the occupier, while he added that they will tell the whole world that Israel is a war criminal and are making preparations for this.
Russia’s aviation authority said Dagestan’s main airport will be closed until November 6th after it was stormed by a mob in protest against a plane carrying Israelis.
Other
Russian Defence Minister Shoigu called the Russia-China relations model exemplary and said the West has openly set a course to inflict strategic defeat on Russia in a hybrid war unleashed against Moscow. Furthermore, Shoigu said the West, having provoked the crisis in Europe, is seeking to potentially expand the conflict to the Asia-Pacific region, while he added Moscow revoking the nuclear test ban treaty does not mean the destruction of military strategic balance, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
10:30: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -16.0, prior -18.1
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We start a busy week for markets after a few major landmarks were reached on Friday that are worth highlighting. The S&P 500 moved into “correction” territory, now down -10.27% from the July highs. Meanwhile the benchmark small-cap Russell 2000 index went through its June 2022 lows and back to levels last seen in November 2020, around the time that Pfizer announced the first successful Covid-19 vaccine trials. In fact, it’s now back to levels it first breached in November 2018. When you factor in the huge inflation over this period, that’s some serious real adjusted declines. So for all the optimism surrounding US equities this year it really is only a handful of huge companies that’s skewing the positivity.
The move into correction territory comes as we hit a very busy week of important central bank meetings, data, earnings and a fresh Treasury refunding announcement. The BoJ could be the stand-out (tomorrow) as our economist believes (close call) they will revise YCC. That could overshadow the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday) meeting. In terms of data all roads point towards Payolls on Friday, with ADP and JOLTs (Wednesday) providing the warm-up act. Elsewhere US ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday) and Services (Friday) will be a focal point as will the various global PMI numbers, especially China’s.
Over in Europe, the highlights will include the preliminary October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports for Germany today, followed by France, Italy and the Eurozone on Tuesday. Earnings will be in full flow but with Apple on Thursday the highlight. The full day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual but we’ll preview the highlights in more detail now below.
Starting with the BoJ tomorrow, our Chief Japanese economist (see full preview here) expects the central bank to revise its monetary policy framework but acknowledges it is a close call. They are likely to revise up their inflation forecast for the second successive Outlook Report which makes it hard for them to do nothing. Our economist would favour the abandonment of YCC but acknowledges that local media have suggested a bias towards tweaks. In his view, even if the BoJ maintains the status quo, the YCC is likely to come under further pressure as expectations of policy normalisation build up .
For the Fed on Wednesday, our US economists expect the central bank to stay on hold and see future hikes as a function of financial conditions and the path of the economy. While their baseline is for rates to stay at 5.3% through year end, they see an increasing risk of a hike in December or Q1. They also recently published a note on what the recent tightening in financial conditions mean for the Fed here. Linked into financial conditions, the latest US financing estimates (today) and refunding announcement (Wednesday) will be important given how much the early August equivalent spooked the market given the extra supply that it heralded. There is some hope that the Treasury may pause its coupon increases it flagged back in August. However our strategists think this is unlikely. See their report here. Remember the August refunding announcement has arguably proved to be the most important macro event of the last 3 months .
The BoE will round out the busy week for central banks on Thursday and our UK economist expects no change in the Bank Rate (5.25%) or the Bank’s forward guidance. The full preview of the meeting here also touches on central bank’s forecasts as well as QT. Elsewhere in Europe, Norges Bank will also decide on its monetary policy that day as well.
In terms of payrolls, our US economists expect the headline to come in at 140k (consensus 190k), down from +336k in September with the UAW strike causing around a 35k drag. They also see the unemployment rate remaining at 3.8% (same as consensus). There will be plenty of labour market data before hand with the ECI (tomorrow), JOLTS and ADP (Wednesday), claims (Thursday), and all the employment subcomponents within the PMI surveys.
German GDP today will likely see a -0.3% contraction (consensus -0.2%) with a mild contraction of -0.1% (consensus 0.0%) in the wider Euro area (tomorrow ). Our economists also expect the headline inflation measure for the Euro area to further decline to 3.1% from 4.3% in September, and see the core gauge slowing to 4.1% (4.5%).
Elsewhere, reports indicate Chinese officials may gather as early as today for the National Financial Work Conference that takes place once every five years behind closed doors. The real estate turmoil as well as other financial risks will be key discussion points.
Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning as continued concerns over the direction of the Israel-Hamas war are being tempered by the fact that major escalations have been avoided so far. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (-1.20%) is the biggest underperformer as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) starts its two-day monetary policy meeting. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.28%) is also trading in negative territory while the CSI (+0.67%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) and the KOSPI (+0.46%) are higher. S&P 500 (+0.33%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.51%) futures are seeing a decent bid for the time of day. US Treasury yields are 2-4bps higher across the curve as we go to print.
Early morning data showed that retail sales in Australia advanced at the fastest pace in eight months, rising +0.9% m/m in September (v/s +0.3% expected) accelerating from August’s upwardly revised +0.3% increase thus encouraging some expectation of a hike at the RBA meeting next week. The Australian dollar (+0.28%) is trading at 0.635 versus the dollar while 3yr yields are up around 5bps. Oil prices have dipped in Asia with Brent futures (-1.36%) slipping back below $90/bbl.
Now, reflecting on last week, on Friday we had the PCE data for September. Headline PCE inflation came in at a four-month high of +0.4% month-on-month (+0.3% expected), while core PCE was in line with expectations at 0.3%. In year-on-year terms, headline was at 3.4%, while core PCE inflation was 3.7% (both as expected). This slight upside came as the strength of consumer spending showed no sign of abating, after nominal personal spending jumped from 0.4% in August to 0.7% month-on-month (vs 0.5% expected). In other data, the University of Michigan survey saw 1-year inflation expectations unexpectedly rise to a five-month high (from 3.8% to 4.2%), though longer-term expectations were flat at 3.0% .
The data did little to budge near-term Fed expectations, with markets pricing a 16% chance of another hike by year-end (from 19% Thursday and 20% a week earlier). Our economists noted that while the core PCE print was the strongest since April, its pace would need to pick up marginally further in Q4 to meet the September SEP projections for end-23. Bonds saw a decent rally last week, with 10yr Treasury yields down -7.9bps to 4.84% (-0.9bps Friday). Renewed curve steepening was a key theme on Friday, with the 2yr yield down -3.8bps to 5.00% but the 30yr up +2.8bps to 5.01%. This marks the first time since August 2022 that the 2s30s slope has closed in positive territory .
After an ECB meeting on Thursday that delivered as expected, although with some dovish tilts, German 10yr bunds yields closed down -5.8bps last week (-3.0bps Friday). We heard from ECB’s Nagel on Friday, who stated that “tight monetary policy is showing effect”, with “future decisions to be made meeting by meeting”. So one of the hawks sticking to the tone of Thursday’s meeting.
In equities, the main story at the end of last week was the S&P 500 entering correction territory, down -10.27% from its end-July peak. The index was down -0.48% on Friday and -2.53% on the week. The -4.86% decline over the past two weeks is its sharpest in 10 months. Equities had started Friday on the front foot after strong earnings results from the likes of Amazon (+6.83% Friday) and Intel (+9.29%) the previous evening. This saw consumer discretionary (+1.70%) and information technology (+0.58%) sectors outperform on an otherwise negative day (with 82% of S&P constituents down on Friday). The NASDAQ benefitted from late week tech earnings, gaining +0.38% on Friday (but still down -2.62% week-on-week). Europe was similarly gripped by the risk-off mood, with the STOXX 600 down -0.84% on Friday (and -0.96% week-on-week) .
The largest underperformer in the S&P on Friday was the energy sector, falling -2.30%. This followed disappointing earnings reports from Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which slipped -4.98% (and -1.91% on Friday) and -13.47% (-6.72% on Friday) over the week respectively. Friday’s decline in energy stocks came despite Brent and WTI crude prices jumping +2.90% and +2.80% respectively on Friday after news that Israel forces undertook a second raid into Gaza, destroying Hamas naval infrastructure. However, oil prices still declined on the week, with Brent down -1.82% to $90.48/bbl and WTI down -3.62% to $85.54/bbl .
Gold secured a third consecutive week of gains, rising +1.26% (and +1.11% on Friday) to $2,006 per ounce, its first time above $2,000 since May.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer, DXY slips & AUD bid ahead of German CPI & US Treasury Financing – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 06:33 AM
European bourses and US futures in the green ahead of a packed week of Tier 1 events
DXY slips with AUD outperforming post-data while EUR & JPY are conscious of OpEx
Debt fades from initial highs with Gilts and USTs now in the red but Bunds still just firmer post-data
Crude & XAU a touch softer as geopolitical risk premium unwinds slightly from Friday
Looking ahead, highlights include German Prelim CPI, Japanese Unemployment & Retail Sales, Speech from ECB’s de Guindos, US Treasury Financing estimates Earnings from McDonald’s & Lowes.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, began the week on the front foot after a mixed APAC handover. Focus since has been on the geopolitical front and data, with reports of tanks around Gaza City briefly halting sentiment for the region.
Sectors are all in the green with no overarching bias, Energy and Banks lagged initially given benchmarks and an update from JPM on the European sector respectively.
Stateside, futures are in the green ES +0.6% ahead of the latest Treasury Estimates before Wednesday’s refunding announcement. As it stands, the NQ is experiencing some modest outperformance and perhaps aided by the modest EGB bid on data.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Dollar drifts ahead of busy agenda into month end and early November as DXY straddles 106.50 within a 106.71-42 range.
Aussie outperforms after much stronger than expected final retail sales add to rationale for RBA rate hike.
AUD/USD solid around 0.6350 and AUD/NZD elevated mostly above 1.0900.
Yen and Euro conscious of decent option expiries nearby as USD/JPY pivots 149.50 on the eve of BoJ and EUR/USD grinds higher between 1.0548-86 parameters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1781 vs exp. 7.3165 (prev. 7.1782)
Eskom’s CEO Cassim said they must delay plans to wind down its ageing coal power plants in order to reduce the number of blackouts, according to the FT.
WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid an unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that baked in on Friday, as the weekend lacked any major regional escalation.
Crude markets remain heavy with WTI Dec around USD 84/bbl (in a USD 83.71-85.30/bbl range), while Brent Jan trades under USD 88/bbl (in a USD 87.51-88.94/bbl parameter).
Spot gold has, in a similar way to crude, been unwinding some geopolitical risk premium with prices back under the USD 2,000/oz mark from a USD 2,006/oz intraday high, and still within Friday’s USD 2,009.56-1,976.92/oz range; base metals are higher across the board following a pick-up in sentiment after the European cash open.
Saudi Arabia may refrain from raising its flagship oil price for Asian customers for the first time in six months as refinery margins weaken across the region which undercuts demand for physical cargoes, according to Bloomberg.
The EU and UK are seeking a ban on subsidies for fossil fuel projects, according to FT.
Russia’s Medvedev said Europe’s energy cooperation with Russia has been ruined or frozen for a very long time and that hard times have come for the EU, while he added that the EU can no longer act on its own and that energy cooperation with the EU is pointless, according to Reuters.
Chevron (CVX) Australia spokesperson said proposed enterprise agreements for frontline field operations employees at Gorgon and Wheatstone gas facilities were backed by a majority of employees in a vote.
ECB’s Vujcic said the ECB is finished with rate hikes for now and that a bigger part of hikes have already been transmitted to households and businesses, while he added that 2% inflation is attainable by 2025 and that they held rates as they have hiked adequately, according to an interview with Croatian state broadcaster HRT1.
ECB’s Kazimir says it is too soon to declare victory and say the job is done; additional tightening could arise if data forces the ECB; bets on rate cuts happening already in H1-2024 are entirely misplaced. December forecasts are one of the milestones, March is the next – only then will the ECB be able to say the tightening cycle is completed and move on to the monitoring phase.
ECB’s Simkus, when asked about December, reiterates that unless especially surprising data comes up, current levels of restriction is sufficient.
SNB: As of 1 December 2023, will lower the threshold factor for the remuneration of sight deposits of account holders subject to minimum reserve requirements from 28 to 25. The changes have no impact on the current monetary policy stance. Thus, the entire minimum reserve requirement will now no longer be remunerated, irrespective of whether it is met using cash or sight deposits.
Fitch affirmed France at AA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Sweden at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Bulgaria at BBB; Outlook Stable.
EUROPEAN DATA
Spanish HICP Flash YY (Oct) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.3%); MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%); YY Flash NSA (Oct) 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%); Core 5.2% (prev. 5.8%)
German GDP Flash QQ SA (Q3) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3%; YY SA (Q3) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -0.2%)
German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Oct) 3.1% (Prev. 4.2%); MM (Oct) -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%)
Former US Vice President Pence is suspending his presidential campaign, according to Politico.
Stellantis (STLA) announced a tentative labour deal was reached with the UAW, although Canada’s Unifor said strike action will commence at all Stellantis facilities in Canada. It was separately reported that UAW’s tentative agreement with Ford (F) includes a USD 5,000 ratification bonus, a USD 1,500 voucher towards a vehicle purchase and all new temporary employees will be converted to in-progress employees after 9 months. Conversely, UAW broadened its strike against GM (GM) with a walkout at the Spring Hill, Tennessee plant.
GEOPOLITICS
SINCE 07:00GMT/03:00ET
Israeli tanks on the outskirts of Gaza City block the road between the north and south of the Strip, according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP; Israeli tanks are now stationed in the central Gaza Strip, according to Al Arabiya.
“Israeli artillery shelling on the western sector of southern Lebanon and throwing phosphorous shells”, according to Sky News Arabia citing its correspondent; Israeli artillery shells Wadi Shebaa with phosphorus shells, according Ashaq News.
Israel’s Military spokesperson says we are gradually moving ahead according to plan, forces deployed across the northern border and prepared for any scenario.
ISRAEL-GAZA
Israeli PM Netanyahu said the ongoing ground operation in Gaza is the second stage of the war and said the war inside the Gaza Strip will be difficult and long, while he added that contacts to secure the hostage release are continuing even during the ground operation.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said the army is inflicting heavy blows on Hamas and they have no interest in expanding the war but are prepared on all fronts.
Israel conducted a strike on a military base in the western Daraa countryside in Syria where Iranian militias are stationed Furthermore, IDF carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in response to the rocket and missile fire on northern Israel.
US Marine rapid response force is moving towards the eastern Mediterranean, according to officials cited by CNN amid concerns the war in Gaza is broadening into a regional conflict.
US President Biden spoke with Egyptian President El-Sisi and briefed him on US efforts to ensure that regional actors do not expand the conflict in Gaza, while the leaders committed to the significant acceleration and increase of assistance flowing into Gaza. It was separately reported that President Biden said the US is ready to take further action following attacks by Iran-linked groups against US forces in Iraq and Syria, according to Reuters.
White House’s National Security Adviser Sullivan said it is unacceptable to have extremist settler violence against innocent people in the West Bank and that the US believes Israeli PM Netanyahu has the responsibility to rein in extremist settlers in the West Bank.
UK PM Sunak and French President Macron discussed in a call the importance of getting urgent humanitarian support into Gaza and expressed their shared concern at the risk of escalation in the wider region, in particular in the West Bank.
French Foreign Ministry said France strongly condemns attacks by settlers that have led to the deaths of several Palestinian civilians over the past few days in the West Bank, while it called on Israeli authorities to take immediate measures to protect the Palestinian population.
UAE asked the UN Security Council to meet as soon as possible following Israel’s expanded ground operation in Gaza and condemned the ground operation, according to Reuters.
Jordan’s army said the kingdom asked the US to deploy Patriot air defence systems to help bolster border defences, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan told a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul that Hamas is not a terrorist organisation and that Israel is the occupier, while he added that they will tell the whole world that Israel is a war criminal and are making preparations for this.
Russia’s aviation authority said Dagestan’s main airport will be closed until November 6th after it was stormed by a mob in protest against a plane carrying Israelis.
OTHER
Russian Defence Minister Shoigu called the Russia-China relations model exemplary and said the West has openly set a course to inflict strategic defeat on Russia in a hybrid war unleashed against Moscow. Furthermore, Shoigu said the West, having provoked the crisis in Europe, is seeking to potentially expand the conflict to the Asia-Pacific region, while he added Moscow revoking the nuclear test ban treaty does not mean the destruction of military strategic balance, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer on the session but remains shy of the USD 35k mark and last week’s highs by extension. Action which occurs as broader market moves have slowed down somewhat going into a blockbuster week of events.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed but with the major indices mostly in the red as geopolitics continued to dominate headlines ahead of month-end and this week’s slew of upcoming risk events.
ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in energy and the top-weighted financial sector although the index moved off intraday lows as participants also digested stronger-than-expected Australian Retail Sales data.
Nikkei 225 suffered as yields edged higher and the BoJ kick-started its ‘live’ 2-day policy meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially lower with financials pressured after mixed earnings from some of the large banks including China’s biggest commercial lender ICBC which posted flat profit for Q3, while there was turbulence in Evergrande shares owing to a wind-up hearing which was adjourned to December 4th. Nonetheless, the declines were stemmed in the mainland amid hopes of improving US-China ties after US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed to work towards a Biden-Xi meeting in November in San Francisco. Furthermore, Wang Yi said both sides hope Sino-US relations will stabilise as soon as possible, while he added that the road to San Francisco will not be smooth and is not on autopilot.
Japanese Trade Minister Nishimura said G7 agreed to build reliable supply chains for critical minerals and chips to reduce dependency on a particular country.
China’s Embassy in Japan said G7 members undermine the level playing field and disrupt the security and stability of global production and supply chain, which followed calls by the G7 for a repeal of Japanese food bans.
Japan keeps overall view on economy for October, saying it is recovering moderately; Japan warns middle east situation could affect economy via energy cost.
DATA RECAP
Australian Retail Sales MM (Sep F) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.27 PTS OR 0.12% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 7.63 PTS OR 0.04% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 294.73 PTS OR 0.95% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.77 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3168 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3282 /Oil DOWN TO 84.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 89.34/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
They are in trouble!! Boxed in!
Yen Soars After Nikkei Report BOJ Considers Allowing 10Y Yields Exceed 1%
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 11:04 AM
With the BOJ already expected to be a far more exciting affair than either the Fed or BOE later this week (both of which will unveil no surprise), moments ago the yen spiked to a session high against the US dollar, and the highest since Oct 12, after Japan’s Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan may tweak its YCC again and allow long-term yields to rise above 1% as soon as its Tuesdays meeting.
According to the Nikkei, which correctly warned just ahead of the last YCC tweak by the BOJ, after several YCC tweaks, the BOJ is once again realizing that it is trapped, and has to adjust its YCC more “potentially allowing 10-year Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%” at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting.
With the long-term interest rate currently capped at 1%, the central bank has been conducting unlimited fixed-rate buying operations to keep yields below that mark, in the process crushing the yen, and pushing inflation sharply higher even as Ueda’s approval rating plunges to record lows as Japan realizes that the one thing it hated more than deflation is inflation.
The report also noted that “the second framework tweak in three months appears to have been deemed necessary as 10-year yields are approaching 1% amid a backdrop of rising U.S. rates” and added that the “BOJ is also likely to more flexibly conduct its JGB purchase operations… This, along with a more flexible cap on 10-year yields, is aimed at deterring speculators from targeting the upper limit and sparing the BOJ the need to buy droves of JGBs to keep rates under 1%.”
Long-term rates have risen faster than the central bank had expected in July. On Monday, the newly issued 10-year government bond yield reached 0.89%, its highest since July 2013. It is approaching 1% — what BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda has called “the upper limit.”
Which, if nothing else, again confirms that the BOJ is by far the dumbest central bank and its leaders are nothing more than headless chickens running around in circles.
The Nikkei report comes just hours after this morning’s 2yr JGB Auction tailed by the most since 2010, despite having a 10bp Coupon for the first time in 32 months, as investors balk at the “opportunity” of buying long-term paper just ahead of another substantial tightening move by the BOJ.
Also ahead of the NIkkei report, Goldman’s FICC desk published a lengthy note from Ryoya Wakamatsu (available to pro subs here), in which he summarized the key aspects of Tuesday’s decision:
What will the BoJ do? ‘Should the BOJ move, the option of raising the hard cap to 1.50% appears most likely given that multiple media outlets have specifically cited this option as the MPM’s point of discussion.’
Where will 10y JGBs go? ‘10y JPY OIS swaps have priced JGBs path well through the multiple YCC band widening in the past year. Current levels of 1.12% suggests JGBs will breach 1.00% following further YCC amendments which we agree with. In fact, depending on which option BOJ elects, we currently think 10y yields can range from 1.10%~1.30%. The path to these levels however will likely be gradual, similar to what we saw in the 3 months after the July MPM. BOJ will likely utilize Rinban purchases and FSO to stem volatile moves.’
What if No-Change? ‘In the event of no policy change, initial short covering will push JGB yields back to the 0.8% range. However, we expect a limited rally as the narrative will only shift to the Dec MPM (19th Dec).‘
What about the Curve? ‘Following a BOJ YCC band widening scenario, we expect 10y to be sold the most. Thereafter, we expect the curve to steepen into FY24 due to fundamental lack of demand in the back-end. Lifers will provide seasonal demand in Jan~Mar2024 but as duration gaps have materially closed thanks to higher rates and convexity, regulatory need to buy JGBs have waned. We think 20y may be the fundamentally weak point of the curve and like to keep an eye on 10s20s steepener from here.’
What about NIRP? ‘NIRP exit is now fully priced in for the March’24 meeting and 40% for the Jan’24 meeting. A 10bps hike will have limited impact to the economy, especially considering that the -0.1% policy rate only applies to a fraction of BOJ Deposits. Short term prime rates (base reference rate of floating rate mortgages) would not move since they have not moved in the last 8 years despite NIRP/lower rates. Thus, the hurdle for BOJ to move to ZIRP seems low and in fact, may be quite needed should YCC band widening have limited effect on the USDJPY.’
USDJPY? ‘USDJPY Lower on BOJ YCC amendments but rebounding to move higher into 2024. No YCC Change will push USDJPY higher towards 155. We saw this last July when USDJPY moved from 144 to 138 following surprise YCC amendments only to be back at 145 three weeks later. Given that there is less of a surprise element to this MPM, with higher market expectations, we may only move back to 144-145. We continue to believe that one of two things (or both) need to happen for the USDJPY to move substantially lower 1) USD index/USD Rates lower 2) BOJ NIRP exit (and rate hikes).’
Finally, as Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield writes, the USD/JPY is likely to end the week lower in two of three Bank of Japan scenarios which traders are likely to be confronting.
1. The BOJ is widely expected to hold policy unchanged, which will be the catalyst for USD/JPY to grind higher. If the pace of the rise is moderate, not alarming to Japanese authorities, the pair may extend toward the 155 area
2. The BOJ removes yield curve control, which generates a steepening of JGB curve and supports the yen. JGB 10-year yields may head toward 1.25%, with USD/JPY heading into 140-145 zone
3. The BOJ exits negative rate policy and ends YCC in what is seen as a coordinated move with Japan’s MOF to strengthen the yen. As USD/JPY moves lower, Japanese authorities follow up with intervention to reinforce the message that yen weakness has reached a line-in-the-sand. USD/JPY picks up downward momentum in similar mode to the slide which ended in January on a 127 handle
Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.
end
3 CHINA
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
FRIDAY NIGHT
Israel enters the GAZA strip!
(zerohedge)
Israeli Tanks Exchange Fire With Hamas Inside Gaza, Small Arms Clashes Heard, As Offensive Expands
FRIDAY, OCT 27, 2023 – 04:05 PM
Update(1605ET): It has become clear that the IDF has entered its next phase of battle operations, meaning a full ground assault, as heavy aerial bombardment continues. But Israeli officials in the last hours have dubbed this another “expanded” raid. The Biden White House is now making a show of wanting a more ‘humanitarian’ approach and has asked Israel to ensure only “surgical” strikes, and to allow the Strip access to aid.
There’s emerging evidence of tank fire and small arms fire at the border, after the IDF confirmed that ground forces are entering the next phase of their operations. The Times Of Israel in a breaking update is reporting, “Palestinians claim Israeli tanks exchanging fire with gunmen inside Gaza.” Separately, other regional analysts reporting, “Anti-tank missiles have been fired at Israeli forces that entered Gaza.”
Hamas leadership has responded with a “call to arms” for Gaza and the West Bank. There have since been reports of large overnight protests by Palestinians in the territories. The fate of the over 220 Israeli and foreign hostages hangs in the balance, and reports suggest the US is still seeking to keep the negotiating process going even as Israel invades.
Below: purported engagement between Hamas and Israeli tank forces at the border:
“All I can tell you is we want to see the hostages released,” he said.
The United States is offering military advice, Kirby added. But ultimately, he said, Israel is going to make its own decisions on the battlefield and answer for them.
“They have to drive the strategy that they have developed, operationally and then tactically,” he said.
Fox News’ foreign correspondent near the border has posted video of heavy exchanges of machine gun fire…
Below are some of the latest developing headlines:
US IS NOT DRAWING RED LINES FOR ISRAEL: KIRBY
US CONCERNED INVASION COULD DERAIL HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS: WAPO
U.S. URGES ISRAEL AGAINST GAZA GROUND INVASION: WAPO
US URGING FOR MORE “SURGICAL” OPERATION IN GAZA: WAPO
ISRAELI PM ADVISER REGEV: WE ARE BEEFING UP THE PRESSURE ON HAMAS, OUR MILITARY OPERATIONS ARE UNDERWAY – FOX NEWS
US, ISRAELI OFFICIALS TELL ABC TONIGHT’S OPERATIONS NOT LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE
US reconnaissance plane spotted active near the Israel-Gaza coast.
END
SATURDAY
The IDF destroys 150 underground targets
(Jerusalem post)
IDF destroyed 150 underground targets in northern Gaza Strip overnight
By AMIR BOHBOT/WALLA!OCTOBER 28, 2023 08:38
IDF warplanes attacked about 150 underground targets in the northern Gaza Strip over Friday night, according to Israeli media.
During the attack, Hamas terrorists were eliminated, and combat zones, underground combat zones, and other underground terrorist infrastructures were also destroyed.
END
SUNDAY
IDF soldiers raise Israeli flag in northern Gaza
This was reportedly the first time the Israeli flag has been raised in Gaza since the Disengagement in 2005.
A soldier installs an Israeli flag on a tank during a military drill near Israel’s border with Lebanon in northern Israel, October 26, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)
IDF soldiers who entered the Gaza Strip on Saturday raised the Israeli flag on one of the homes in the area, according to video shared online.
A man could be heard in the video saying “three weeks after the horrible crime, soldiers of the 52nd Battalion of the 401st Brigade lift the flag of Israel in the heart of Gaza, along the beach. We will not forget… we will not stop until victory.”
This was reportedly the first time the Israeli flag has been raised in Gaza since the Disengagement in 2005.
IDF tanks operate in the Gaza Strip. October 28, 2023 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF expands ground operations in Gaza Strip
Starting on Friday night, IDF soldiers began an expanded ground entry into the Gaza Strip, reaching several kilometers into the coastal enclave.
The IDF said that the entry into Gaza was an “expansion” of the ground raids conducted earlier in week, although IDF spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari would not say if the entry was the beginning of the ground offensive spoken about in recent weeks.
Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian terrorists in northern Gaza have continued since, with airstrikes targeting a number of locations as well.
end
Sunday:
GAZANS raid the UN food warehouses. Israeli troops two miles inside GAZA
(zerohedge)
Desperate Gazans Raid UN Food Warehouses As Norway, France Condemn ‘Disproportionate’ Israeli Attacks
SUNDAY, OCT 29, 2023 – 03:05 PM
After three week under Israeli siege and a bombing campaign which has been unprecedented in its intensity, Gazans are getting increasingly desperate. The Strip is almost completely enveloped in darkness, also with communications cut, which happened Friday, and the United Nations is now warning of a total breakdown in civic order.
“This is a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down after three weeks of war and a tight siege,” UNRWA director Thomas White told press agencies.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also in fresh Sunday statements called the crisis a “nightmare” and again urged a ceasefire. “The situation in Gaza is growing more desperate by the hour. I regret that instead of a critically needed humanitarian pause, supported by the international community, Israel has intensified its military operations.”
Over the weekend the Gazan death toll surpassed 8,000 – with Gaza’s Health Ministry saying that most of these are women and young people. The Biden administration, which has repeatedly affirmed that it “stands with Israel”, has also said that it doesn’t trust casualty figures being issued by Hamas or Palestinian sources.
There are reports that communications were restored to much of the Gaza Strip as of Sunday, possibly the result of growing international pressure on the Israelis. Ten more aid trucks have also reportedly crossed from Egypt on Sunday.
According to Al Jazeera, “The Israeli military said on Sunday it had struck more than 450 targets over the past 24 hours, including Hamas command centres, observation posts and antitank missile launching positions. It said more ground forces were sent into Gaza overnight.” The Israeli ground offensive has continued expanding, with The Guardian observing, “Under the cover of strikes and artillery, Israeli ground troops have begun moving into the north of the strip in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun in what the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, described as the “second stage” of the war triggered by Hamas.”
Israeli troops appear to have advanced over two miles into Gaza, according to a CNN analysis of video published by an Israeli media outlet.
The troops in the video, taken on Saturday, are seen putting an Israeli flag on a Gaza resort hotel’s roof. CNN geolocated the video to an area just over two miles from the Gaza-Israeli border.
“Soldiers of the 52 Battalion of the 401 Brigade are waving the Israeli flag in the heart of Gaza, by the beach,” a soldier is heard saying in the video, taken several miles north of central Gaza City. “We will not forgive nor forget, and we’ll not stop until the victory.”
Palestinian sources are also saying another major hospital, which is treating hundreds of patients and giving shelter to over 10,000, has come under attack:
Israeli airstrikes have “caused extensive damage to hospital departments and exposed residents and patients to suffocation” at the Al-Quds Hospital, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said Sunday.
The aid organization accused Israel of “deliberately” launching the airstrikes “directly next to Al-Quds Hospital, with the aim of forcing the medical staff, displaced people, and patients to evacuate the hospital.”
Major bulldozing and tank operations have been observed on the beach in Gaza…
A statement cited in The Times of Israel described:
The IDF says troops killed a number of Hamas gunmen who opened fire at the ground forces in the Strip, and other terrorists identified on the beach in Gaza, near the southern Israel community of Zikim.
Hamas and the IDF have continued to exchange gunfire, but the status of forces on either said remains unknown and for the moment lost in the fog of war. At this point, if either suffers significant casualties, they are unlikely to make it publicly known.IDF tanks on the coast of the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday. Image: Israeli Army
Meanwhile, the intensifying crisis for Palestinian civilians has not only led to massive street protests in various nations, particularly in Europe, but has resulted in rare criticism aimed at Israel from leading Western nations. The French government has issued scathing criticism of “unacceptable” Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank:
More than 100 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip earlier this month, mostly during raids by Israeli forces or attacks by settlers, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.
“France strongly condemns the settler attacks that have led to the deaths of several Palestinian civilians over the past few days in Qusra and Sawiya, as well as the forced departure of several communities,” said a foreign ministry statement.
And Norway too has condemned what it says is a massive and “disproportionate” response and death toll among Palestinians in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack which killed 1,400 people. “International law stipulates that [the reaction] must be proportionate. Civilians must be taken into account, and humanitarian law is very clear on this. I think this limit has been largely exceeded,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store aid in a public broadcast radio interview.
“Almost half of the thousands of people killed are children,” he stressed. “Israel has the right to defend itself, and I recognize that it is very difficult to defend against attacks from an area as densely populated as Gaza,” Store said. “Rockets are still being fired from Gaza into Israel, and we condemn this.”
Even the White House has begun to urge caution, with national security advisor Jake Sullivan telling the Sunday shows that even though Hamas used civilians as “human shields” – it’s still ultimately Israel’s responsibility to avoid hitting them.
“They’re putting rockets and other terrorist infrastructure in civilian areas. That creates an added burden for the Israeli Defense Forces,” he said. “But it does not lessen their responsibility to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians and to protect the lives of innocent civilians as they conduct this military operation.”
Watch: Muslim Rioters Storm Airport, Surround Rumored Flight From Israel, In Southern Russia
SUNDAY, OCT 29, 2023 – 03:55 PM
There are shocking and surreal scenes coming out of the southern Russian Republic of Dagestan, after word spread that a flight from Tel Aviv was set to land at its international airport.
Rumors that a flight full of Israeli Jews was set to land triggered Muslim mobs to raid the airport, where they broke past barriers and even at one point stormed the airstrip in search of Jews.
“A flight from Israel to the Russian Republic of Dagestan earlier today was forced to divert from its intended destination in the capital of Makhachkala after pro-Palestinians protesters stormed the airport, seeking to attack the Israeli arrivals, according to multiple reports,” Times of Israel(TOI) described of the chaotic scene.
Several videos have emerged showing angry rioters yelling “Allahu Akbar” while seeking to intercept offboarding passengers from the Israeli flight.
It appears police or security personnel were nowhere in sight as the mob, reportedly mainly made up of Palestinians who live in Dagestan, rampaged through the terminal.
“Dagestan’s population is overwhelmingly Muslim,” TOI noted. “According to Channel 12, the crowd was apparently largely made up of Palestinian expats.”
The flight from Tel Aviv either diverted or took off after briefly landing. There are reports that the mob tried to break into a plane on the tarmac. Some reports say that the aircraft which was surrounded was full of Russian citizens.
Regional media said the group went so far as to begin checking the IDs of travelers exiting the airport by car:
Some of the signs held by demonstrators read “Child killers have no place in Dagestan” and “We are against Jewish refugees.”
The independent Medizona news website reported that the demonstration was prompted by calls spread on the Telegram messaging app earlier on Sunday to block a plane scheduled to arrive directly from the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.
According to local media, some of the demonstrators were stopping cars outside Makhachkala’s airport to check the personal identification documents of drivers and passengers as they searched for Israeli citizens among the motorists.
The flight from Tel Aviv landed at 7:17 p.m. local time, according to the airport’s website, after which the protesters stormed into the airport, breaking past security and running onto the tarmac.
One group of people who ran onto the airport’s tarmac surrounded a plane and jumped onto one of its wings, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia reported.
The FT’s Moscow correspondent Max Seddon wrote of one video, “Remarkable to see security forces in Russia standing by for so long. By now, according to Baza, police in Makhachkala have chased them off the runway and outside the airport, where they are now protesting.”
The Dagestan airport was forced to temporarily close as the military and police belatedly tried to gain control of the situation and restore order. Per regional N12 News:
“Security official: the event in [Dagestan] is not over yet. A relatively small number of Israelis and Jews are isolated and secured at the airport. We are working for them to take off from there for an onward flight to Moscow as soon as the conditions allow.”
Some observers are speculating that security forces essentially turned a blind eye and allowed the disturbing scene to happen.
It is indeed remarkable that given the typical high security nature of international airports, the mob so easily breached all security checkpoints and overwhelmed both the terminal and tarmac.
END
Chris Powell//editor Hartford Herald
Ceasefire won’t end Gaza war; and look what the Democrats did
Respectable people are calling for an unconditional ceasefire in the long war between Gaza and Israel, but their calls came only after Israel began retaliating for Gaza’s most barbaric attack and kidnappings. While respectable people may have been appalled by the attack, they aren’t appalled enough to suggest that anything should be done about it beyond deploring it.
For many years Israel had been indulging attacks from Gaza, relying mainly on anti-missile systems, occasionally responding with punitive fire aimed at the leaders and military facilities of Gaza’s Hamas regime. But these retaliations were not severe enough to solve the problem. Indeed, the so-called blockade Israel has imposed on Gaza has just been shown to be completely ineffective against the import of armaments.
A blockade against food, water, and medicine might be effective against armaments as well, but respectable people insist that Israel feed and heal its enemies, a first in the history of warfare.
Remarkably, there are no calls from within Gaza itself for an unconditional ceasefire, only hints that some hostages might be released if Israel stops fighting back.
Respectable people say that the conflict can be ended only by “a two-state solution,” one state for Jews and another for Palestinians. But there already are and for 18 years have been two states, Gaza having been a Palestinian state since Israel evacuated the territory in 2005 and Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization drove in waving automatic rifles to the cheers of Gaza residents. Soon Gazans elected Hamas to run their government, attacks on Israel began, and Israel responded with its ineffective blockade.
Even now Gaza is recognized as independent by many countries, including Russia, which last week received Gazan diplomats.
So the “two-state solution” did not stop the conflict. Israel accepted two states but the Palestinians did not. The conflict can end only when Palestinian leaders forthrightly accept Israel, whereupon many of them will be murdered by their own people, or when one side destroys the other.
Respectable people and even President Biden assert that the people of Gaza are not Hamas. But the people of Gaza installed Hamas in their only election, held in 2006, and they sustain their government, and no one in Gaza seems to be beseeching it to end the war against Israel in exchange for peace. No, the Hamas charter demands Israel’s destruction, Hamas acts as if it wants the destruction of all Jews as well, and most Palestinians concur.
Maybe with enough leveling of Gaza by Israeli bombs and enough misery the people of Gaza will change their mind about war against Israel. But for the moment Gaza is Hamas and Hamas is Gaza. There is no difference.
What exactly should Israel do to end the constant attacks from Gaza? Respectable people don’t say. They imply that Israel should just live with the attacks. Meanwhile Hamas’ position, and Gaza’s, is that Israel should disappear.
So there is nothing to negotiate. Israel can survive only by making Gaza disappear.
Respectable people at least may admire the searing integrity of the Gazan position, which is the Palestinian position generally: that misery and death are preferable to letting Jews have peace. Indeed, those who insist on death for others invite it to come for them too.
******
Connecticut’s five members of the U.S. House of Representatives, all Democrats, along with all other Democrats in the House, might want to reflect on the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy. For while McCarthy’s ouster was superficially a Republican matter, nearly all the votes to remove him came from Democrats.
By the standards of the House Republican caucus McCarthy was a moderate. Indeed, he was assailed by the extreme conservatives in his caucus because he had compromised with the Democrats to avert a federal government shutdown. A few Democratic votes would have kept McCarthy as speaker.
But last week the Republicans united and elected Louisiana’s Mike Johnson as the new speaker. Johnson’s positions are even more contrary to Democratic positions than McCarthy’s were, so the Democrats have turned out to be the great enablers of the Republicans they consider the most dangerous. What brilliant strategy!
——
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years. (CPowell@cox.net)
-END-
MONDAY: MID MORNING
This is their plan: they will encircle Hamas. Once HAMAS fighters retreat into buildings, Israelis signal to the air force to bomb the building. Once images that will appear motionless, the army will bulldoze the rubble.
(zerohedge)
IDF Tanks Reach Outskirts Of Gaza City, Cut Key North-South Highway, After Netanyahu’s Chilling War Message To “Smite Amalek”
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 10:05 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says it has killed dozens of Hamas militants, among them commanders, as it pushes deeper into Gaza, with tanks being seen Monday on the outskirts of Gaza City, blocking a key road linking the northern and southern halves of the Strip.
Hamas has also announced it is engaged in “heavy fighting… with the invading occupation force”, after the IDF confirmed more Israeli troops have been surged into the Strip. It appears the warring sides are in some locales engaged in building-to-building and door-to-door fighting in the dense urban zone.
“Overnight, troops eliminated dozens of terrorists who barricaded themselves in the buildings and tried to attack the forces that were moving in their direction,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said. “We are carrying out an expanded ground operation into the Strip… forces are moving towards the terrorists, the terrorists are barricading themselves in staging grounds, and we are attacking them from the air.”
Israel is signaling its intent to encircle Gaza City with tank and ground units – a significant challenge given its size of 18 square miles with a pre-conflict population of over 650,000 people. In total some 1.1 million people live in the northern half of the Strip.
Recent reports have estimated that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have defied Israel’s order to flee south. By Saturday the IDF had utilized open spaces like the beach to quickly allow tank units to plunge two miles deep into the Strip.
IDF has been publishing brief clips of forces operating in Gaza:
Gazans have told Al Jazeera that they are receiving emergency phone calls at their residences (after communications were switched back on this weekend) with messages like the following: “This is the Israeli army, we are telling you to evacuate south because in the coming hours it is going to be very dangerous in the area where you are at.”
At this point amid the fog of war as well as the desire of each side present that they have the battlefield edge, it’s not expected that military casualty rates will be published, but the Israeli media has cited a series of IDF statements to compile the following accounts:
In one incident, ground troops directed the Air Force to carry out a drone strike on a Hamas staging ground, killing more than 20 terrorists, according to the IDF.
In another incident, the IDF said a fighter jet struck an anti-tank guided missile launch position and a number of Hamas operatives who were identified by ground troops near Al-Azhar University in Gaza City.
Later Monday, the IDF said troops encountered a number of Hamas cells attempting to attack them during the morning hours. Ground forces directed air force combat helicopters and drones to strike the terror cells and kill their members.
Forces also demolished anti-tank guided missile and rocket launch positions, as well as other infrastructure belonging to Hamas, the IDF said.
As for Israeli forces having reportedly gained control of a key road that runs north-south, AFP has also cited eyewitnesses who say “They have cut the Salah al-Din road and are firing at any vehicle that tries to go along it.”
Additionally Hamas has claimed to have stalled the IDF’s advance deeper into Gaza City:
Later on Monday, Salama Maarouf, the head of the Hamas government office in Gaza, said the Israeli tanks had retreated from the outskirts of Gaza City.
“There’s absolutely no ground advance inside the residential neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip. What happened on Salah al-Din Street was the incursion of a few occupation army tanks and a bulldozer,” Maarouf said in a statement.
The Hamas official then asserted, “These vehicles targeted two civilian cars on Salah al-Din Street and bulldozed the street before the resistance forced them to retreat. There is currently no presence of occupation army vehicles on Salah al-Din Road, and citizen movement has returned to normal on the road.”
Now with the death toll in Gaza having far surpassed 8,000 – with an estimated half of these women and children – Israel is facing growing international pressure and condemnation, including from some European countries, as we detailed Sunday. Statements of PM Netanyahu and his top officials essentially declaring a scorched earth campaign over the densely populated land have drawn rebuke from some corners of Europe, but receive scant mention in US mainstream media…
Meanwhile, the Israeli military’s Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, has defined the mission as follows: “The IDF is focused right now on one thing—victory and dismantling Hamas.” But the question of the fate of millions of Palestinian civilians across the West Bank and Gaza hangs in the balance, with Palestinian leaders and their supporters expressing alarm over Netanyahu’s “smite the Amalek” reference.
Israel has been seeking retaliation for the Oct.7 Hamas terror raids into southern Israel, which killed over 1,400 Israelis and foreigners, and resulted in at least 220 hostages still held captive somewhere in the Strip. But more tragic news has emerged concerning one one woman who had been taken from the Nova music festival, and who had been seen half-naked in the back of a pick-up truck, possibly deceased or at least badly wounded:
Shani Louk, a German-Israeli woman kidnapped by Hamas gunmen during the October 7 attack and taken to Gaza, has been found dead, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said.
“We are devastated to share that the body of 23 year old German-Israeli Shani (Louk) was found and identified,” the ministry posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.
The images, including graphic video, of what appeared her lifeless body underneath several smiling Hamas militants in the bed of a pick-up truck was among the first to go viral on Oct.7 – and underscores the utter brutality and mercilessness of the Hamas terror raid.
END
This is not the time for blame: they must remove the terrorists or else their mandate will flourish throughout the globe
(zerohedge)
Outrage After Netanyahu Blames Security, Military Chiefs Over Oct.7 Failures
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 12:20 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s days are numbered in the country’s top office, according to growing consensus both inside and outside Israel. The dominant thinking is that once this conflict and crisis settles, he will pay the political price for October 7.
Fierce domestic political controversy has already erupted, fueled especially by a weekend statement (since retracted) issued by Netanyahu which laidblame on the military and intelligence establishment for failing to identify and prevent the threats that led to the Oct.7 Hamas terror raids that killed over 1,400 people and resulted in the kidnapping of over 220 men, women and children.
Netanyahu has yet to take any personal responsibility. The whole event shocked the world and especially Israeli citizens who’ve long joked that even if a cricket or small animal approached the Israel-Gaza border fence, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would know about it.
But instead, Netanyahu has deflected, and after a tense Saturday news conference shifted blame on his security chiefs. He posted to X: “Under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of war intentions on the part of Hamas.”
He then emphasized, “On the contrary, the assessment of the entire security echelon, including the head of military intelligence and the head of Shin Bet, was that Hamas was deterred and was seeking an arrangement.”
He soon after deleted the post the amid the firestorm of controversy that ensued, and instead stated in a new post, “I was wrong.” He apologized and backtracked:
“The things I said following the press conference should not have been said and I apologize for that,” he wrote. “I give full backing to all the heads of the security arms. I am strengthening the Chief of Staff and the commanders and soldiers of the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] who are at the front,” he wrote in Hebrew, according to a translation.
The comments split the already fragile unity of the emergency war coalition which was agreed to by opposition leader Benny Gantz, who was the first to lash out.
Netanyahu’s quick retraction is being seen in part as a necessary move toward preserving the wartime emergency government, and to pacify a media establishment which is already “out for blood” related to the hostage crisis and Oct.7, which marked the worst single-day terror attack in Israel’s history:
His statement was met with sharp criticism from several officials. Gantz, a former defense minister and current cabinet minister, called on Netanyahu to retract his comments.
Leader of the opposition and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid echoed Gantz, saying Netanyahu “crossed a red line” with his words.
Most importantly Lapid was able to play the undermining the military while the nation is at war card. He said according to a Reuterstranslation, “The attempts to evade responsibility and place the blame on the security establishment weakens the [Israeli Defense Forces] while it’s fighting Israel’s enemies.”
The New York Times has meanwhile written that the optics have been made worse by Netanyahu’s continued refusal to take any responsibility for failures to protect the nation, but simultaneously other senior officials have issued their own apologies and statements of deep regret:
Although many senior officials, including military and security chiefs and the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, have accepted some responsibility for Israel being caught so off-guard, Mr. Netanyahu has declined to do so. He has said several times, most recently at a news conference on Saturday evening, that after the war tough questions would be asked of everybody, including himself. Mr. Netanyahu has been in power for 14 of the past 16 years.
Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to publicly accept blame has further shaken confidence in his leadership, which had fallen even before the war, in part because of his efforts to push through a judicial overhaul that sparked huge nationwide protests. Opinion surveys since Oct. 7 have indicated overwhelming public trust in the military and plummeting faith in government officials.
Families of Oct.7 victims, as well as loved ones of citizens still held hostage, have also been garnering media attention in their denunciations of Netanyahu’s leadership.
For these and many other Israeli families, Netanyahu’s “Mr. Security” Persona has fallen off and been exposed, as Bloomberg has written:
The aftermath marks what may be the ultimate test of Netanyahu’s political survival skills. Although Netanyahu, 74, deleted the post and issued a rare apology hours later, the calls for him to step down are becoming an ever-louder chorus. Critics are meanwhile increasingly emboldened to go as far as to question his ability to lead Israel as it wages a punishing war in Gaza.
Moshe Yaalon, his former defense minister, did so in a radio interview, saying the prime minister “is solely engaged in political maneuvering and his attitude is, ‘Let the nation burn.’ I don’t trust him to lead the military campaign.”
While this fight hasn’t been featured much in Western press, the families’ statements have driven a lot of reporting within Israel itself. They are urging a large-scale prisoner swap, given that from the start Hamas has demanded that thousands of Palestinians in Israeli prisons go free. But now that the IDF is actively operating deep inside Gaza Strip, this appears off the table in terms of a serious option Netanyahu is considering.
end
The IDF rescues its first soldier, Ori Megeish.
(Jerusalem Post)
IDF rescues soldier held hostage by Hamas
Private Ori Megedish was rescued 23 days after she was kidnapped from southern Israel.
Private Ori Megedish has been reunited with her family, October 30, 2023.(photo credit: SHIN BET)
Private Ori Megedish, an IDF soldier, was rescued during the IDF’s operation in Gaza on Sunday night, the IDF and Shin Bet said in a joint statement on Monday.
She was kidnapped by the Hamas terrorists on October 7 and has now been reunited with her family.
A subsequent medical examination administered to Megidish has determined that she is healthy.
The statement noted that the IDF and Shin bet will continue to make every effort to secure the freedom of the remaining hostages.
President Isaac Herzog was quick to state his happiness for Megedish’s rescue in a statement on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday night.
“I was moved to see the soldier Ori Megedish return home to her loving family after a daring operation by the IDF and Shin Bet,” Herzog wrote. “Our security forces operate around the clock in Gaza, in the north, in Judea and Samaria, and everywhere, on land, in the air, and at sea.”Advertisement
This is a developing story
end
Saudi Arabia/Yemen (Houtis)//Israel/USA
It is your move Mr Biden!. Many rockets were fired from Yemen’s Houtis towards Israel and Saudi Arabia. Four Saudi soldiers were killed by rockets that landed on Saudi soil and that destroyed the possible peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It also frightened Saudi Arabia and no doubt the peace accords with Israel is back on! It seems that many red lines have been passed by Biden. Now that there were no rockets attacks against USA assets in Iraq, it is Biden’s turn to respond However this appeasement President will probably not act.
(zerohedge)
Saudis On High Alert After Yemen’s Houthis Fire Another Missile At Israel, Fresh Clashes Erupt
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 03:30 PM
Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen have reportedly fired another missile aimed at Israel on Monday. An initial launch of a couple of missiles over a week ago saw a US warship of Yemen’s coast intervene to shoot down the projectiles.
This time the Houthi missile flew over Saudi territory, putting the kingdom on a high state of alert. While fighting between the Saudi-UAE coalition and Yemen’s Houthis has raged since 2015 (also with Washington backing), the last days have seen an uptick in fighting, which regional observers believe is connected with events in Gaza. Israel too sees Yemen as a dangerous ‘pro-Iran’ base of operations threatening the broader region. However, the Houthis are by and large an impoverished rag-tag regional rebel movement which sees Riyadh as trying to bolster an unpopular puppet government by force of superior air power.
“Saudi Arabia’s military has gone into a state of high alert following deadly clashes with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who also tried to fire a missile over the kingdom toward Israel, according to people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reports. The fresh clashes resulted in four Saudi soldiers dying in the southwestern Jazan Province on the border with Yemen, based on defense sources cited in the report.
Bloomberg additionally emphasizes that this shatters forward momentum made on a developing peace deal. “Before the escalation, the two sides were on the cusp of a deal despite the death of four Bahraini soldiers serving in the Saudi coalition in a Houthi drone attack last month,” the report continues.
There’s also Saudi-Israel normalization which remains a big question. It was only a little over a year ago that Saudi Arabia began opening its airspace for Israeli flights to pass through, and this summer saw the unprecedented opening up of the kingdom’s airports to Israeli carriers.
But since the Hamas Oct.7 attack on southern Israel, and return strikes which have pummeled Gaza, resulting in a massive civilian death toll – the Saudi and Israel relationship has once again deteriorated. The hoped-for Abraham Accords are effectively dead, and some analysts have pointed out this is exactly what Hamas and its Iranian supporter wanted. Israeli carriers are now greatly scaling back flights over the region due to the new security threats.
As for the Houthis, the Shia group vying for full control over Yemen has also long been seen as supported from Tehran, having also received covert weapons shipments.
Netanyahu is meanwhile issuing new threats aimed at Iran:
Elsewhere in the Middle East on Monday, an American base in Iraq has once again come under attack. “Four Katyusha rockets on Monday fired at Iraq’s Ain al-Asad air base which hosts U.S. and other international forces in western Iraq,” security sources told Reuters.
Casualties were unknown in the immediate aftermath. “Rockets were fired from a desert area around 25km (15 miles) north of the base and Iraqi security forces launched a search for the attackers, two security sources said,” the report continues.
Attacks on US forces in both Iraq and Syria are becoming a daily occurrence, despite the last Friday early morning airstrikes on ‘Iranian targets’ in Syria. The White House has warned of more ‘decisive action’ to come, but the reality is that the US occupation in Syria leaves American forces exposed. end
Kunstler describes the foolishness of Scott Ritter
“The post-mortem on the disastrous Biden years will be one of incredulity at how Joe Biden, of all people, was ever placed in charge.”
– James White
The fog of war has never been so dense…
what with the years-long sustained psy-ops of the US Intel “Community” against the American people…
the lawfare operations of the Democratic Party against innocent patriots…
the homicidal depredations of the pharma-government complex…
the Cultural Marxists’ weaponization of language against common sense and common decency…
the Neocon warhawks’ serial failed crusades to control faraway lands of dubious national interest…
and the relentless mendacity of the sell-out Big Media.
It’s a wonder that anybody might venture a coherent thought, or that such a thought might survive transmission from person to person intact, without a sadistic beat-down or a dishonest, tactical inversion of meaning along the way. A thought such as:the Jews have a right to exist in a place called Israel.
This is now up for debate around the world, whereas it had been accepted as self-evident by many civilized states a few weeks ago.
The military pundit Scott Ritter acted out a spectacular mental melt-down on video the other day. Among the statements he made were: “We need the Israeli army to be destroyed, to suffer defeat” . . . “Israel is the greatest threat to peace in the world” . . . “Political Zionism is a rabid dog and must be killed” . . . “I’m glad Hamas is winning” . . .
It’s far from clear what Scott’s definition of Zionism is, but Dictionary.com says: “a worldwide Jewish movement that resulted in the establishment and development of the state of Israel and that now supports the state of Israel as a Jewish homeland.” That’s pretty standard across many dictionaries. So, is Scott Ritter calling for the cancellation of Israel? Sounds like it, a little bit. He’s not alone. That has been the dream of most of Islam in the region for seventy-five years. Now, a great multi-nation jihad rises to expel what the Iranians like to call “the Zionist Entity,” as if it were some scaley thing that slithered out of a UFO. Even the American Ivy League is rooting to drive Israel into the sea.
Among the reasons Scott Ritter reviles the Israelis is that they are too weak and incompetent to defend themselves. Their stand-by army of reservists, he says, are too soft and flabby to hump a standard-issue soldier’s kit into a war-zone — and Gaza is the worst sort of urban war-zone. They’ll fall down and have heart attacks the first time they try to run a hundred yards (which could be true, considering Israel’s 90 percent Covid vaxx uptake and the likely resulting non-symptomatic myocarditis present in young men there). Israeli intel sucks, he says. Israel’s sense of superiority, their notion of being the chosen people, must be smashed. Israeli soldiers should go into Gaza and be shot to pieces, he advises. Scott’s intemperance is… something to behold.
Three weeks ago, the Middle East was on the verge of putting through the Abraham Accords that would have “normalized” relations between Israel and several states of the Arabian Peninsula, exchanges of ambassadors, openings to trade and such. Other Islamic nations in North Africa were expected to join anon. And just before the October 7 Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia was about to hold normalization talks with Israel. That’s all out the window.
Scott Ritter’s proposed initiative goes like this: Call a cease-fire and halt the bombing of Gaza. Israel must commence direct face-to-face negotiations with Hamas — no intermediaries! — for the exchange of hostages and prisoners and to begin groundwork toward a two-state solution, that is, the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
For decades, that two state solution has been hung up on two sharp thorns.
One is the practical question of where that Palestinian State would be. The common idea is that it would be the disputed zone called the West Bank (of the Jordan River) plus Gaza. The West Bank was occupied by Israel in the aftermath of the 1967 Six Day War, as was the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights on Israel’s northern border with Syria. Israel eventually returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in 1982, and Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005. Gaza has been self-governing since, with internal conflict between its Hamas and Fatah factions. Gaza has been used as a launching site for rocket attacks in Israel ever since, regularly upending attempts to negotiate a lasting peace. Israel, on the other hand, has installed over 600,000 settlers in the West Bank, said to be in violation of international agreements.
The second thorn that hangs up any plausible peace is the Palestinians’ overt declarations in the Hamas charter, for instance, that Israel has no right to exist and must be destroyed. Iran, too, has for years notoriously declared its intention to “wipe Israel off the map.” That is hardly a viable pre-condition for settling this long quarrel. “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” goes the chant. Notice that the Islamic nations surrounding Israel refuse to admit any Palestinian settlers. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, will not take them. Why is that? I’ll tell you: because they understand that the bellicose, fractious Palestinians will bring them trouble.
Western Civ, weakened, broke, and mind-fucked, now faces a fast-unifying multi-nation Jihad that looks more and more like World War Three.
The pressure is on for Israel to re-think its furious response to the savage attacks of October 7. Yet, the threat to its survival has never been so stark.
There is little appetite for the US to get involved, though reports out of the war fog indicate that there might be as many as 5,000 US soldiers already inserted into the Gaza campaign alongside IDF soldiers. We have plenty of reason to worry that US towns and cities could be the next target, since no one really knows how many Jihadis have crossed into our country from Mexico under “Joe Biden’s” wide-open border policy. What a moment to be leaderless!
This Substack has been diligently covering the excess deaths and diseases like turbo cancers since the DEATHVAX™ rollout… …and now we have addition conformation that the democidal depopulation program is accelerating: Charts from the above X post…
“All the ‘vaccinated,’ the injected, knowing that they are poisoned—We are the masses. We are billions of people. Let’s just stand up and say, ‘Stop. We will not comply.’
“We are the guardians of humanity, and our light obliterates the darkness of evil. Always.”
Please share far and wide.
WOW — Pascal Najadi, the son of WEF co-founder Hussain Najadi, is calling for the arrests of Bill Gates, WHO leadership, the WEF, Klaus Schwab, Big Tech and Pfizer.
He says he and his mother are now dying from the vaccine, which he calls “poison”. pic.twitter.com/L9EPkMxMA4
Mysterious note found at home of Maine shooting suspect Robert CardREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
Jeff Bezos Pushes WEF’s Bug-Eating Agenda for PublicRead more…Study: mRNA Shots ‘Killed 3.5X More Americans Than Virus Itself’Read more…President Trump | Johnnyd.net – The Eric Metaxas ShowRead more…Hung out to dry: NYC spending millions to clean migrants’ laundryRead more…Warnings Grow of US Response to Attacks on Military Bases in Middle EastRead more…It was youth night at a Maine bowling alley when gunfire eruptedRead more…Gantz’s speech reveals the most of Israel’s grand strategy for Gaza everRead more…“The Constitution Requires This Action” – Speaker Mike Johnson Previously Argued that Impeachment Was Necessary for Joe Biden (VIDEO)Read more…
The United States Suddenly Bans Export of Most Civilian Firearms and AmmunitionReuters reported that the U.S. Commerce Department put a temporary halt to the issuance of export licenses for the majority of civilian firearms and ammunition on Friday. They cited “national security and foreign policy interests” as the reason for this halt, which will last for 90 days. “The review will be conducted with urgency and will enable the Department to …READ THE FULL REPORT
Federal Judge Finds That New York’s Rejection of Gun Licenses Violates the ConstitutionA federal judge has ruled that the New York City regulation that allow officials to deny people gun licenses based on their ‘moral character’ violates the U.S. Constitution. The U.S. District Court ruling comes in light of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down New York state’s restrictive gun permitting scheme. In his ruling, District Judge John Cronan stated …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0574 UP 0.0015
USA/ YEN 149.75 UP .274 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2171 UP 0.0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3845 DOWN .0016 (CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.27 PTS OR 0.12%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 7.63 PTS OR 0.04%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.77% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 7.63 PTS OR 0.04%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.27 PTS OR 0.12%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.77%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 294.73 PTS OR 0.95%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1993,60
silver:$23.15
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.34 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.3139
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3246)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.26 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.890…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.8888% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.053 UP 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.046 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 44.97 POINTS or 0.62%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 33.77 PTS OR 0.23%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 29.15 PTS OR 0.58%
Spain IBEX UP 109.00 PTS OR 1.22%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 64.73 PTS OR 0.24%
WTI Oil price 83.79 12: EST
Brent Oil: 88.77 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.87; ROUBLE UP 1 AND 25//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8195 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6120 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0618 UP 0.0059 OR 59 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2166 UP .0064 or 64 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5613% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .891%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.07 DOWN 0.407 //YEN UP 41 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3818 DOWN .42 CDN dollar DOWN UP 42 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.44
Brent OIL: 87.86
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.870%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 5.020%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 5.035 %
USA dollar index: 105.93 DOWN 45 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.26 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.86 UP 1 AND 7/100 roubles
GOLD 1997.00
SILVER: 23.33
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 511.37 PTS OR 1.18%
NASDAQ UP 155.09 PTS OR 1.09%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.79 DOWN 1,05 PTS (0.56)%
GLD: $185.10 DOWN 1.05 OR 0.56%
SLV/ $21,34 UP .16 OR 0.76%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Jump… Everything Else Dumps
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Once again the fact that WW3 didn’t actually break-out over the weekend sent VIX lower (after surging into the weekend for the 3rd week in a row), smashing stocks higher and havens/hedges such as oil, crude, bonds, the dollar, and bitcoin all declined.
But, with the tsunami of potential catalysts for chaos this week such FOMC and payrolls (excluding geopolotical ones), the market’s expectations for volatility are dramatically higher than they were at the September FOMC…
Source: Bloomberg
The compression in VIX prompted gains in stocks (more hedge unwinds than short-squeeze) with The Dow leading and Small Caps lagging. Some late-day selling wiped a bit of lipstick off this overall pig but a solid day (that admittedly felt very fragile)
Financials outperformed (while Energy stocks lagged) on the day with the KBW Bank Index rallying to erase Friday’s losses…
While tech outperformed, TSLA was trounced on battery demand fears (and some chatter about X’s valuation). Back below $200 to its lowest since May…
Today was not really driven by a short-squeeze as ‘most shorted’ stocks ended flat (admittedly after an opening jump)…
Source: Bloomberg
Was today the start of something bigger?
As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott pointed out, the trick now is whether all this YE performance management “Net Down” de-risking and monetization incentivization” positioning has further room to run – because if it does NOT and sellers have already completed de-risking, a Beta rally melt-up would be an awful outcome for funds without enough exposure on.
As a reminder, Systematic positioning in Equities has been slashed on the realized Vol grind and downside price momentum:
McElligott fears a vicious feedback loop for a rally into YE: if we get
1) a big “Puts monetized” theme…
2) Vols bleed further from “rich” current iVol levels,
then there’s 3) $Delta to BUY as hedges get unwound, and from there,
you have 4) potential waves of “Synthetic Short Gamma,” as Funds both Active and Systematic become the dreaded “buyers higher” and have to add-back Exposure the more we rally
Maybe, or as UBS’ trading desk pointed out, maybe not. Mega cap tech, consumer cyclicals and banks are outperforming side by side which makes me wonder if what we are seeing Monday is also a reversion of the year-end tax trade with only one trading day left for Oct. year-end funds, similar to what was seen at the beginning of October after investors sold both winners and losers in late September. Usually by November, investors are starting to look for opportunities to play reversion when it comes to the tax trade.
The S&P 500 moved into “correction” territory on Friday, down over 10% from the July highs. Meanwhile the benchmark small-cap Russell 2000 index went through its June 2022 lows and back to levels last seen in November 2020, around the time that Pfizer announced the first successful Covid-19 vaccine trials. In fact, it’s now back to levels it first breached in November 2018.
Source: Bloomberg
When you factor in the huge inflation over this period, that’s some serious real-adjusted declines. So for all the optimism surrounding US equities this year it really is only a handful of huge companies that’s skewing the positivity.
And speaking of companies skewing performance, if one strips away the Mag 7 stocks, the non-tech heavy SPW, NYA, CWI, RTY equity indices are now all at or below 200wma and down for the year.
Source: Bloomberg
The Treasury Refunding announcement (smaller than expected for this quarter) prompted yields to jump lower briefly, but the following quarter was increased and yields started to leak back higher. By the close, bond prices were lower across the baord (yields up with the belly underperforming)…
Source: Bloomberg
30Y yields dropped twice to 5.00% and bounced today…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar slipped lower on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The yen spiked (yen strengthened against the dollar) after headlines on the BoJ considerinag djustemnts to its YCC program tonight…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot gold prices fell back from their spike on Friday, holding around $2,000 (up from just over $1,800 before the attack on Israel)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices tumbled with WTI down over 4%, erasing all of its post-Israel-attack gains (not helped by weak German economic data)…
Finally, financial conditions continue to tighten – now at their tightest in a year…
Source: Bloomberg
When, if ever, will these tighter financial conditions start to weigh on the macro-economy?
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
end
EARLY THIS EVENING//
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
UAW Secures Tentative Agreement With Stellantis Following Ford Deal; Expands Strikes At General Motors
SUNDAY, OCT 29, 2023 – 08:45 AM
The maker of Jeep Wranglers and Ram trucks, Stellantis NV, reached a tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers to end a 44-day strike, days after Ford Motor Company reached a deal with the union.
The tentative agreement, which must still be approved by local union leaders and ratified by Stellantis’ 43,000 members, calls for a 25% hourly pay hike plus cost-of-living allowances over the four-year contract:
The agreement grants 25% in base wage increases through April 2028, and will cumulatively raise the top wage by 33% compounded with estimated COLA to over $42 an hour. The starting wage will increase by 67% compounded with estimated COLA, to over $30 an hour. The lowest-paid workers at Stellantis, temporary workers, will see a raise of more than 165% over the life of the agreement. Some workers at Mopar will receive an immediate 76% increase upon ratification. –UAW statement
“Once again, we have achieved what just weeks ago we were told was impossible,” said UAW boss Shawn Fain.
Fain continued, “At Stellantis in particular, we have not only secured a record contract, we have begun to turn the tide in the war on the American working class. Going into these negotiations, the company wanted to cut 5,000 jobs across Stellantis. Our Stand Up Strike changed that equation. Not only did we not lose those 5,000 jobs, we turned it all the way around. By the end of this agreement, Stellantis will be adding 5,000 jobs. We truly are saving the American dream.”
Two of Detroit’s Big Three automakers have reached a tentative agreement with the union. Ford first reached a deal last Wednesday as the last holdout of the automakers is General Motors.
However, UAW expanded strikes on GM’s assembly plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee. Fain said, “We are disappointed by GM’s unnecessary and irresponsible refusal to come to a fair agreement.”
GM and Ford have both retracted earnings guidance after the strike has cost them billions. Ford said last Thursday that the strike would cost it $1.3 billion, and GM said it would be hit with $800 million in costs. Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said the strike costs Stellantis $200 million per week.
end
GM Reaches Tentative Deal With UAW To End Strike
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 09:19 AM
Stellantis NV, maker of the Jeep, Ram and Chrysler brands, reached a tentative agreement with the UAW on Saturday, which included the same 25% hourly pay raise plus cost-of-living allowances over the more-than-four-year contract included in a similar deal reached by Ford last week.
Those agreements still need to be voted on by the companies’ union members.
And now, after more threats from the UAW, Bloomberg is reporting that GM is said to have reached a tentative agreement with UAW to end the strike that is costing them billions.
GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra and UAW President Shawn Fain reportedly spoke on Sunday, people familiar with the discussions said.
Bloomberg reported that the automaker and UAW made progress on the status of temporary workers but still needed to agree on retiree benefits, the people said.
With 300,000 retirees – the most of any automaker – a $500 annual payment would cost the company $150 million a year for the life of the deal.
The deal reached Monday includes a 25% hourly pay raise plus cost-of-living allowances over the more-than-four-year contract, according to the person, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
The agreement still needs to be approved by GM’s union members.
GM shares are up in the pre-market, but not very impressively…
“We hit the companies to maximum effect,” said UAW President Shawn Fain in a Facebook livestream. GM and Stellantis [and now GM] had just agreed to provide a 25% wage increase to United Auto Workers members, matching the same offer by Ford to end the six-week strike.
The gains are valued at more than four times those won in the last UAW contract in 2019 and provide more in base wage increases than Ford workers have received in the past 22 years.
The deal will reinstate major benefits lost during the Great Recession, including cost-of-living allowances. Some lower paid workers will receive an immediate 85% wage increase.
This is the sort of thing that happens in a relatively free market when capital owners have extracted such a large share of the nation’s economic spoils that labor revolts.
Government workers got a 4.6% raise this year. And 70mm Social Security recipients received an 8.7% benefit increase in 2023.
Such gains are mechanical, mathematical, removing the need for union strikes to extract more money.
The cost is simply added to the Federal deficit, which is funded through the issuance of bills and bonds, the supply of which is expanding at an accelerating rate.
Politicians can dampen the trajectory of this parabolic trend. Theoretically. In practice, they are the ones responsible for its remarkable shape.
And after six weeks of paralysis in the republican congress, a new House Speaker was selected, hailing from Louisiana, the 3rd most federally dependent state government in the union. Ahead of what will be the most chaotic presidential election in modern history, Mike Johnson will lead, having circulated an amicus brief – signed by more than 100 Republican lawmakers – and filed it in a Texas court case to contest the 2020 election results in four swing states.
It thus seems unlikely that our politicians will be focused in 2024 on restoring our national finances to a sustainable trajectory. There will be no Union boss to fight that fight. Only bond markets, which are ultimately built upon faith. And this is fading.”
The full terms of the deal are unknown but we are President Biden will give it another ‘thumbs up’, because, after all, it’s not his money.
The United States is borrowing its way to disguise recession.
The headline economic figures for the United States look robust. However, details show concerning weaknesses.
Real GDP growth surged to 4.9% in the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of 4.5%. However, some analysts, including Bloomberg, expected up to 5% growth based on the nowcast estimates.
United States unemployment is also low, at 3.8%, but real wage growth remains negative, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between September 2022 and the same month of 2023, the decrease in real average weekly earnings was 0.1%. This means that a tight labor market is not improving the real disposable income of workers. Additionally, the labor participation rate and employment-to-population ratio remain below pre-pandemic levels. Add rising taxes to inflation, eating away at wage growth, and you can see why things are more complicated than what headlines suggest.
The cracks in the bullish story will appear soon. Consumer spending grew at a strong 4.0% annualized rate in the third quarter, which surprised most analysts after a weak 0.8% in the previous reading. The worrying fact is that this rise in consumption comes mostly from higher debt, as United States consumers are borrowing heavily to spend on entertainment. The rise in services was 3.6%, while real disposable income is negative (-0.1%) and household credit card debt reaches a new record. Unsurprisingly, credit card debt rose to a new high of more than $1 trillion, with the average consumer running a $5,900 debt on their card, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Last year, credit card interest rose to $105 billion, and this year will be much higher.
Americans are living on borrowed time as real salaries remain in negative territory in the past five years and inflation eats savings away. This may last, but not much.
More concerning figures in GDP: A strong economy does not show a decline in investment of this magnitude. Nonresidential business investment fell 0.1%, including a 3.8% slump in equipment investment. According to Morgan Stanley, capital expenditure plans have fallen to May 2020 levels.
The mirage of construction is also gone, as it fell to just 1.6% after a one-off double-digit increase in the past quarter. Furthermore, a large part of the growth in GDP came from bloated government spending financed with more debt and inventory revaluation, adding 0.8 and 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Many of these temporary effects will revert in the fourth quarter.
The level of public debt is exceedingly concerning. The increase in gross domestic product between the third quarter of 2022 and the same period of 2023 was a mere $414.3 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while the increase in public debt was $1.3 trillion ($32.3 to $33.6 trillion, according to the Treasury).
The United States is now in the worst year of growth, excluding public debt accumulation since the thirties.
Consumption financed by soaring credit card debt and economic growth disguised by enormous government spending and record public debt are not indicators of a strong economy but proof of a very worrying trend that may last another two quarters but will likely result in a much weaker economy in the next three years.
Wall street braces as 1.5 trillion dollars in borrowings by Treasury is announced for this quarter on top of another $1,0 trillion during the 3rd quarter.
Wall Street braces for roughly $1.5 trillion in further borrowing needs by Treasury
Provided by Dow Jones
Oct 28, 2023 1:48 PM EDT
Some big Wall Street banks are expecting next week’s refunding announcement by the Treasury to reflect the government’s large and ongoing borrowing needs.JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Deutsche Bank (DB) estimate that Treasury will need to borrow roughly $1.5 trillion during the current fourth quarter and first quarter of 2024 — on top of the $1 trillion estimated borrowing that took place in the third quarter. Jefferies (JEF) puts the number closer to $1.4 trillion.Treasury’s heavy borrowing is one of the most important factors behind the recent, steep run-up in long-term yields, which ended the New York session at their highest levels since 2007 last week. Since July, 10- BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 30-year yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y have each jumped by a full percentage point or more as traders fret over the onslaught of supply for Treasurys, the U.S. government’s fiscal trajectory, and the risks of holding long-dated government debt to maturity.”We do expect the Treasury to be responsive to the recent market move,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Steven Zeng in a note.Deutsche Bank’s forecast calls for a slight moderation of increases in 10- to 30-year maturities relative to the last refunding quarter. Still, Zeng said his bank expects Treasury to announce $749 billion of borrowing for the fourth quarter and $822 billion for the first quarter of 2024.Meanwhile, JPMorgan anticipates that Treasury will announce $800 billion in net marketable borrowing for the October-December period, and $698 billion for January-March of 2024, according to strategist Jay Barry and others. “Given this backdrop, Treasury’s current auction schedule is insufficient to meet its prospective financing needs,” the JPMorgan team wrote in a note this week. The “funding gap remains large in the coming years,” even after last quarter’s increases.
“Over the near term, Treasury will continue to lean on T-bills to bridge this gap, as it did in fiscal year 2023, but this is unsustainable, as the T-bill share of debt is likely to rise toward 22% by year-end 2023, and also given large projected financing needs in fiscal year 2024 and beyond,” according to the JPMorgan note.Treasury is set to kick off the quarterly refunding process on Monday. The department’s round of announcements includes details on upcoming auction sizes on Wednesday, which BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery said will “readily overshadow” the Federal Reserve’s policy update that same day.On Friday, Treasury yields ended little changed to slightly lower after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge reflected both good and bad developments. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP closed mostly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 experiencing another day of losses.
-Vivien Lou Chen
COLLAPSE? Bond bloodbath commences as Fed’s desperate fight against inflation fails – NaturalNews.com
COLLAPSE? Bond bloodbath commences as Fed’s desperate fight against inflation fails
For Wolf Richter, publisher of finance and econ site Wolf Street, the long-term treasury market is finally waking up from its delusion that the Fed is going to gradually cool inflation to its target of two percent.
It is also finally admitting it cannot normalize interest rates after having spent 18 months believing in the hype about a Fed pivot and rate cuts to something like zero percent that would be forced on the Fed by a steep recession, with lots of forever-quantitative easing (QE) to follow.
The latest retail report reflected high increases in retail sales that were in good part due to high increases in inflation. Richter called the occurrence a “bond bloodbath.” “Today, it is the 30-year treasury yield that pierced the five percent line. It currently trades at 5.02 percent, the highest since August 2007,” Richter wrote in his October 18 article. “The 10-year yield jumped to 4.92 percent at the moment, the highest since July 2007, edging within easy reach of the magic five percent line.”
These long-term yields above five percent only indicate that a form of normalcy is gradually being forced upon the bond market by the resurgence of inflation, and by the belated realization that this inflation isn’t just going away on its own somehow. “This is a huge regime change after years of the Fed’s QE and interest rate repression, and all prior assumptions are out the window,” he further pointed out.
The Daily Doom‘s David Haggith agreed with Richter’s sentiments and commented: “Delusion ends hard when the denial breaks up, and the Fed’s financial demolition is accomplishing that destruction now. If it doesn’t, inflation will do the job for it.” His forecasts include: as the Fed tightens into a steep recession, the slide into the second plunge since last year’s dip will be steep as it will not likely come until the Fed tightens hard enough and long enough to break the “Everything Bubble” – an expression referring to the correlated impact of monetary easing by the Fed on asset prices in most asset classes, such as equities, housing, bonds, many commodities and even exotic assets such as cryptocurrencies and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).
This will send the American economy rapidly into recession in an all-out panic because people who have been investing based on such enormous delusions panic when they finally realize that they’ve run out past the edge of a mighty high cliff, he said, adding that the Big Bond Bubble crash would be inevitable because of the Fed’s quantitative tightening and its raising of interest rates. The government’s massive addiction to endless and enormous deficits, requiring massive new bond issuances, could also contribute to the collapse, he further noted.
“This deficit-spending by the government has to be funded by piling enormous amounts of Treasury securities on the market that need to find buyers. Yield solves all demand problems by rising until demand emerges. And that’s in part what we’re seeing now. All of this is happening as the Fed is unloading its balance sheet at a record pace, having already shed over $1 trillion in securities in a little over a year,” a separate Wolf Street feature indicated.
Losses in Treasury bonds far worse than mortgage losses in 2008
Meanwhile, banks are in shambles as losses in Treasury bonds were found to be far worse than mortgage losses in 2008.
According to Haggith, the losses become realized losses if banks actually have to sell the bonds in their reserves to fund any flow out of the bank, as we saw last spring. Now, Wall Street bond investors are reportedly worried about the burgeoning U.S. federal debt because the trend in deficits is a strongly established fact and the Fed faces potential policy pitfalls ahead as it wrestles with how to respond to investor angst about the U.S. government’s humongous $33.5 trillion government debt.
As the Fed considers postponing plans for another interest-rate increase, they might be waiting to see if the bond vigilantes are doing their work for it now and pricing bond yields up, whether the Fed raises rates or not.
“At this point, the Fed will merely be running to catch up to what the free market is already doing just so it can appear to still be in control,” Haggith further predicted. “The Fed cannot help the government finance those massive deficits without spraying new gasoline directly into the inflation inferno it has already fueled, and the government cannot seem to stop itself from runaway spending. Even if it does manage to stop itself, the Fed’s roll-off of more Treasuries that have to be refinanced will continue to worsen the picture for bonds. So, will the rising of inflation, a major fear factor now that it is starting [to be] seen by investors, be back on the move?”
What is unfortunate is that until now, the bond market still foolishly believed the Fed would cave in on the inflation fight and go back to QE and/or it foolishly believed that the Fed’s inflation fight would be easily won. “This week’s economic news shined a bright light on the fact that all of that was fantasy. Realization about the inflation fight that remains is repricing everything,” he said hoping that the realization finally wakes the market fully now. (Related: Alarming study: 60% of Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck amid soaring inflation and rising interest rates.)
Visit DebtCollapse.com to read related news on the collapsing state of the U.S. economy.
Most news articles about the animal in Lewiston, Maine, who shot 31 people, killing 18, focus specifically on the shooter’s skin color and “AR-15 style” rifle.
The media seem to have missed the ten mass shootings that have taken place in the three and a half days since the Maine massacre.
FACT-O-RAMA! A mass shooting is defined as four or more people shot, not including the shooter, in a fluid situation.
Lewiston stands out because of the unusually high body count. Also, the shooter escaped and was at large for a while before police found his body. Every news source from Maine to New York kept readers glued to their sites with stories of “the shooter MAY come here next” fear porn.
Legendary jackpudding Joy Behar from “The View” doesn’t know the difference between an AR-15 and a bazooka. She is paid millions of dollars a year to lie to wine-box mommies who believe her codswallop.
Left-leaning, gun-grabbing racists cheered when the Lewiston shooter was identified as a white male. The Lewiston victims were still cooling in the local morgue as commie pundits dutifully went to work decrying the two things they hate the most: peckerwoods and AR-15s. It was a convenient distraction from the weekend “festival of lead” we. saw in all the familiar places.
Halloween Fright Night
Since the Lewiston shooting of October 25, our nation has been home to ten more mass shootings, most of which didn’t warrant a blip on the news radar.
The ten shootings left 14 dead and 65 wounded. Two took place in Chicago and left 19 people ventilated — 15 in just one shooting involving a handgun. Astonishingly, no one gave up the ghost.
Indianapolis was home to a shooting that left one dead and eight injured at a Halloween bash in a building the police somehow can’t identify — which to me sounds like a “pop-up party.” The victims’ ages ranged from 16-22.
POP-O-RAMA! Pop-up parties frequently take place in illegal locations such as empty buildings and seem to be a magnet for poorly raised, gun-toting youths.
Hallelujah, Its Raining Lead
The bloodiest shooting since Lewiston erupted when two “groups” of maniacs decided to shoot it out during Halloween festivities outdoors in a Tampa-area bar district. Videos show twomen with handguns. No AR-15s or MAGA hats were found at the scene.
GRAPHIC WARNING
One of the shooters appears to not be a white male, which may be the reason the press ignored this Halloween fight night despite two people getting killed and 18 more injured.
LEFTARDS-O-RAMA! The Pravda press refuses to report mass shootings if the master blaster is black. Black civil rights groups then complain that “racist” news outlets don’t care about black people dying. Yet, when someone mentions that Chicago is a hotbed of mostly-black shootings, they too are called “racist.” Remember, anyone who crosses a Marxist is deemed a “racist.” It is the vehicle by which the commies exert control.
You can watch this Low-T Teletubby laugh as bullets fill the night — and 20 revelers. I count roughly 27 shots in this video below:
Five people were shot to death — including a 73-year-old male — in Clinton, North Carolina, at a residence known for selling the dopes.
Six people were shot at a party in the back of a business in Texarkana, Texas, when, according to police, “a fist fight broke out between two men at the party. At some point during this fight, at least two men there pulled out rifles and started shooting.”
???-O-RAMA! What did they pull the rifles out of if they were in a business location?
More weekend shoot-out info!
Four were injured at a shoot’em up party in Chicago.
Since I began writing this article two more mass shootings have popped up at gunviolencearchives.com.
Ricardo Johary Cadena-Garcia, 36, using a handgun — not one of those big, scary “assault weapons” — perforated four men in a Dodge City, Kansas, bar, two of whom are never going home.
Seven people were injured in a shooting Saturday at a party in Las Cruces, New Mexico. No deaths were reported.
What Have We Learned?
We have learned the press is picky about the mass shootings they report, but you likely knew that.
We have also learned that parties seem to attract “gun nuts,” but that may also have to do with Halloween. Although, as I’ve reported before, social gatherings seem to be getting wildly dangerous, such as this Sweet 16 party in Dadeville, Alabama, where six people, one of them only 15 years old, shot 32 roisterers, killing four. The victims and suspects were all black.
* * *
Help PJ Media continue to report the facts about the Democrats’ disastrous policies that are causing a spike in violent crime across the country.
The House finally gets the IRS to end its abusive practices
(zerohedge)
House Weaponization Panel Gets IRS To End ‘Abusive’ Surprise Visits; Taibbi Thanks Jim Jordan
SATURDAY, OCT 28, 2023 – 04:00 PM
House Republicans on the GOP’s “weaponization” subcommittee said in a Friday report that the IRS has agreed to end its “abusive” policy of surprise visits to taxpayers’ homes following pressure from the panel.
“The Committee’s and Select Subcommittee’s oversight revealed, and led to the swift end of, the IRS’s weaponization of unannounced field visits to harass, intimidate, and target taxpayers,” reads the report. “Taxpayers can now rest assured the IRS will not come knocking without providing prior notice—something that should have been the IRS’s practice all along.”
The IRS announced in July that it would end most unannounced agent visits to the homes of Americans, citing security concerns.
But it also came after the agency engaged in what appeared to be witness intimidation, after visiting the New Jersey home of journalist Matt Taibbi on the same day he appeared before Congress to testify on government abuse.
Following the incident, Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) demanded answers from the IRS, writing “In light of the hostile reaction to Mr. Taibbi’s reporting among left-wing activists, and the IRS’s history as a tool of government abuse, the IRS’s action could be interpreted as an attempt to intimidate a witness before Congress.“
Taibbi thanked Jordan on Saturday, writing in response to the report:
One of the cases outlined is my own. My home was visited by the IRS while I was testifying before Jordan’s Committee about the Twitter Files on March 9th. Sincere thanks are due to Chairman Jordan, whose staff not only demanded and got answers in my case, but achieved a concrete policy change, as IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel announced in July new procedures that would “end most” home visits.
Anticipating criticism for expressing public thanks to a Republican congressman, I’d like to ask Democratic Party partisans: to which elected Democrat should I have appealed for help in this matter? The one who called me a “so-called journalist” on the House floor? The one who told me to take off my “tinfoil hat” and put greater trust in intelligence services? The ones in leadership who threatened me with jail time? I gave votes to the party for thirty years. Which elected Democrat would have performed basic constituent services in my case? Feel free to raise a hand.
If silence is the answer, why should I ever vote for a Democrat again? –Racket News
Taibbi had opined earlier in the day on the disturbing IRS home visits, writing in Racket that: perhaps the most ‘unsettling revelations’ happened after his case – when on April 25, 2023 a woman was visited by an IRS agent using a fake name.
On that date, a woman was visited at her home by a man identifying himself as “Bill Haus” from the IRS’s Criminal Division. He then “informed the taxpayer he was at her home to discuss issues concerning an estate for which the taxpayer was the fiduciary,” and after sharing “details about the estate that only the IRS would know,” the taxpayer “let him into her home.”
The woman informed “Haus” that the estate issues had been resolved, and furnished documents to prove it. At this point, he informed her of his real purpose, claiming she was delinquent on several tax filings and provided “several documents to the taxpayer for her to complete.”
Hesitating, the woman offered to put him on the phone with her accountant, but when he didn’t answer the phone, she contacted an attorney, who “repeatedly told Agent ‘Haus’ to leave the taxpayer’s home since the taxpayer had not received any prior notice from the IRS of any issue.” The agent reportedly replied that he was with the IRS and could go into anyone’s house at any time, and before leaving told the taxpayer she had “exactly one week to satisfy the remaining balance or he would freeze all her assets and put a lien on her house,” as the Committee report put it.
Once “Haus” left, the taxpayer feared a scam and had the good sense to immediately contact the Marion, Ohio Police Department (MPD), upon whose reports this story ends up being based. (Emails published below.) The MPD ran the plate of “Bill Haus” and found it came back to a car owned by someone with a different name. The police contacted the car owner, who “attested that he was an IRS agent but admitted Bill Haus was not his real name; he was using an alias.”
* * *
Taibbi also notes that “Agent Haus” was pissed after his identity was discovered, and then filed a complaint with the Treasury Department’s Inspector General against the MPD for outing him. It was only after a senior MPD offer called the Inspector General (TIGTA) that they were able to confirm that Haus was an actual IRS agent.
As Taibbi further considers:
Pause here to consider the numerous problems already confirmed, to police, by the IRS:
IRS agents make field visits using aliases;
IRS agents make “pretext” visits, i.e. they announce they’re asking about one thing, when really by their own admission, they might be investigating something else;
The IRS makes local, covert home visits without informing local authorities.
Think of the problems that could arise from the last issue alone. According to the exchanges, the IRS isn’t required to inform local officials of investigative activity, but as noted by the TIGTA official in communications with the MPD, this is something they should do, to avoid mixups. Here for instance, even after a lengthy inquiry, local police were unsure “Agent Haus” really worked for the Treasury. Imagine if the taxpayer called police to come over during her visit, and think of the things could go wrong. It’s insanity that the Treasury would have investigators using aliases making Clockwork Orange-style “surprise visits” without informing local officials.
Amazing.
end
Judge Reverses Pause On Trump Gag Order In Federal Election Case
A federal judge has reinstated a gag order she previously ordered on former President Donald Trump in the Department of Justice’s federal election case accusing him of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan had initially approved President Trump’s request for an administrative stay, or pause, on the gag order requested by government prosecutor special counsel Jack Smith. The gag order prohibited remarks that would “target” the prosecution and defense legal teams, court staff, and potential witnesses.
In Judge Chutkan’s initial written opinion, she dismissed arguments made for First Amendment defenses, writing that the obligation to protect the proceedings from outside interference preceded First Amendment rights.
President Trump’s legal team had requested the pause while the merits of the case were being considered by an appeals court. They said the gag order would deny his protected political speech, and the rights of President Trump’s audience to hear his remarks.
However, the government filed its opposition to the temporary lifting of the gag order, after which President Trump had three days to file a response to the opposition, which he did on Saturday.
“The Gag Order would not have done anything to prevent a national discussion of this issue during a campaign. Thus, the only thing the Gag Order would accomplish is ensuring that President Trump could not respond to inappropriate prosecutorial or witness leaks, an obviously impermissible and wholly unconstitutional goal,” Trump’s attorneys argued.
With arguments from both sides now made, the judge has sided with the prosecution, denying President Trump’s request to pause the gag order during the appeals process. The ruling appeared in a docket entry on Sunday night, but the details of the ruling have not yet been made public.
President Trump responded to the judge’s action in a late Sunday post on his social media platform Truth Social, saying that his First Amendment rights had been breached.
“The Corrupt Biden Administration just took away my First Amendment Right To Free Speech,” he wrote. “NOT CONSTITUTIONAL!”
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) came out to advocate for what it believes are President Trump’s First Amendment rights in a rare statement of support, describing Judge Chutkan’s order as “vague” and “impermissibly broad” in restricting the former president’s free speech.
President Trump is also subject to a gag order in the civil case in New York being pursued by Attorney General Leticia James.
In recent submissions for the election case, the defense has added in its arguments that President Trump was never charged with inciting violence on Jan. 6. They are seeking to strike prosecutors’ public statements that have implied this as a given fact from the indictment.
President Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges that he plotted to unlawfully interfere in the counting of votes and block the congressional certification of contested state votes on Jan. 6, 2021.
end
Congress Headed For Showdown Over Ukraine, Israel Funds As Massie And Greene Say ‘NO’ To All
MONDAY, OCT 30, 2023 – 01:00 PM
House Republican opposition to Ukraine funding – a large part of why Kevin McCarthy was ousted by the Freedom Caucus – is solidifying under newly crowned Speaker Mike Johnson, who hand-delivered a report to President Biden with a list of demands.
In particular, the list – written by Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), informs Biden that Congress won’t authorize any additional funds for Ukraine unless the administration answers a dozen questions about the path forward. Chief among them – how Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plan to win the war against Russia, and how long it might take.
“Failure to ask these questions, and a continued willingness by Congress to enable this carte blanche mentality to date, is, in my opinion, a dereliction of duty and a recipe for disaster that will enable a Ukrainian defeat and enhance Chinese aggression,” said Garcia.
Johnson, meanwhile, has made clear that House Republicans won’t bundle Ukraine aid and money for Israel’s conflict with Hamas, as Biden wants.
On Sunday, Johnson told “Sunday Morning Futures” that Israel aid must be separated because it’s a more “pressing and urgent need” that the House will act on this week.
“There are lots of things going on around the world that we have to address, and we will,” he said, adding “But now what’s happening in Israel takes the immediate attention, and we’ve got to separate that and get it through.”
What about no on Israel too?
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) on Sunday posted on X that she won’t support any more foreign aid, including support to Israel, because of the national debt.
“I will be voting NO on all funding packages for the Ukraine war (as I have from the beginning) and now the Israel war,” she wrote. “We have had over 10 MILLION people illegally cross our border since Biden took office and we are over $33 TRILLION dollars in debt with many major problems afflicting Americans.”
She also responded to a tweet by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who raised the same point, saying “we simply can’t afford it.”
Johnson and McConnell headed for showdown?
With House Republicans tepid on Ukraine funds, Johnson is heading into a showdown with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – who says he wants to keep Ukraine aid and Israel aid tied together because he sees them as part of a larger global threat.
Johnson says he wants to “bifurcate” the issues of Ukraine and Israel, and he has signaled early support for a stopgap funding bill that would include steep cuts to nondefense spending, which Democrats say would have no chance of passing the Senate.
Beyond the next three weeks, McConnell wants to pass the regular appropriations bills before Christmas in order to boost defense spending, while Johnson has floated the idea of freezing federal funding with a stopgap measure lasting until January or April.
Johnson has also proposed offsetting $14 billion in aid to Israel with other spending cuts, an idea that will be controversial with Senate Republicans and Democrats alike. -The Hill
That said, Senate Republicans are growing weary of the blank check approach as well.
“We need to start breaking the mold around here. This isn’t working. We’re $33.5 trillion in debt. The old way of doing business has failed, is failing. We need to approach things differently. From my standpoint, within [the] Republican conference we need a different form of governance,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).
McConnell and Johnson also have vastly different views on abortion – with McConnell making clear that the decision should be left to the states, while Johnson – who is very religious, sees it as a national issue. Earlier this year, Johnson co-sponsored a bill declaring the right to life guaranteed by the Constitution applies to unborn children. He also introduced a bill in February to make it a crime to transport minors across state lines for an abortion without first satisfying parental involvement laws in the minor’s state of residence.
“Paradoxically, McConnell finds it much easier to talk to [Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] than his Republican counterpart in the House,” said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University who has held several Senate fellowships.
Yet according to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), “What Biden and Schumer are doing, which is holding Israel aid hostage in order to pass all of their other partisan priorities, is profoundly cynical.”
THE KING REPORT
The King Report October 30, 2023 Issue 7108
Independent View of the News
US fighter jets strike Iran-linked sites in Syria in retaliation for attacks on US troops U.S. fighter jets launched airstrikes early Friday on two locations in eastern Syria linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps… they struck weapons and ammunition storage areas that were connected to the IRGC. The official said there had been Iranian-aligned militia and IRGC personnel on the base and no civilians… https://apnews.com/article/syria-airstrikes-iran-revolutionary-guard-af3c7a0f069b8c8b08f6feaa0e165d6a
The University of Michigan’s Final Sentiment survey for October shows 1-year Inflation expectations jumped to 4.2% from the expected and prior 3.8%. 5-year Inflation was the expected and prior 3.0%. Sentiment improved to 63.8 from the expected and prior 63.0. Current Conditions improved to 70.6 from 66.7; Expectations declined to 59.3 from 60.7. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
US Near-Term Inflation Views Jump to 4.2%, Highest Since May Over 80% of consumers said inflation would cause greater hardship than unemployment in the year ahead, the highest share in almost a year, according to the survey. Nearly half blamed high prices for eroding their living standards, the most in 15 months… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-near-term-inflation-views-jump-to-4-2-highest-since-may-1.1990385
@jaykaeppel: The “official” number says CPI inflation has fallen from 8.9% to 3.7%. BUT ticker RINF (Fidelity Inflation Expectations ETF) is pushing new highs… I think I am experiencing trust issues. https://twitter.com/jaykaeppel/status/1717910086532714527
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows biggest monthly jump since May https://yahoo.trib.al/NBmU0sk “Core” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, showed prices rose 0.3% in September and 3.7% from the prior year…
If the Fed does NOT hike rates this week, we can surmise that politics was a bigger factor than inflation.
JPMorgan Chase stock slips after bank says CEO Jamie Dimon is selling 1 million shareshttps://t.co/3Ingp4bAcK
@PeterSchiff: JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon is selling $JPM stock for the first time in 20 years. There is clearly nothing to worry about, as Dimon claims he is only selling stock because his family needs the money. With all this inflation even the Dimon household needs an extra $135 million.
Amazon CEO Jassy incanted AI; so, The Street’s trained seals incontinently bought Amazon and Fangs. Yes, Virginia, things are really that absurd in what used to be called ‘high finance.’
ESZs jumped higher when they opened on Thursday night due to Amazon’s AI invocation. They then waffled in a 15-handle ranged until they broke lower after the 7 ET US repo market opening. ESZs hit a bottom near 8 ET. Buying for the pump & dump began; ESZs rallied from 4160.75 at 8ET to 4178.50 at 9:03 ET. But sellers did not wait to dump into the usual buying during early NYSE trading.
ESZs sank, hitting 4154.25 at 10:00 ET. They jumped to 4172.50 at 10:13 ET. Delayed selling for the unexpected increase in consumer inflation expectation pushed ESZs to a new daily low of 4149.00 at 10:41 ET. But, traders wanted to play for and foment the Friday Rally. So, the usual suspects pushed ESZs to 4176.75 at 11:16 ET. However, as we noted in Friday’s missive, someone keeps selling rallies.
The implacable sellers returned; ESZs sank. The decline accelerated on this:
Israeli military “expanding” ground operations in Gaza, IDF says – Axios Two Israeli officials said the decision “to expand” ground operations in Gaza was made by the Israeli war cabinet on Thursday night local time after talks on a possible hostage release reached a stalemate… https://www.axios.com/2023/10/27/israel-hamas-ground-invasion-gaza
ESZs eventually hit a bottom of 4126.25 at 14:28 ET. It was time to play for the Friday Afternoon Rally. ESZs rallied to 4142.50 at 14:45 ET and then reversed. ESZs hit a new low of 4122.75 at 14:58 ET. It was time to play for the last-hour manipulation. ESZs hit 4137.50 at 15:30 ET and reversed to 4122.50 at 15:40 ET. It was up to the late manipulation to salvage ‘the marks.’ ESZs hit 4141.50 at the close.
USZs opened modestly lower on Friday night and then intractably declined until a rally materialized near 3:20 ET. USZs then rallied from 109 6/32 to 109 21/32 at 6:11 ET. Sellers pushed USZs down to a daily low of 109 1/32 at 8:56 ET. After a moderate rebound, USZs broke lower on the UM Sentiment report for October (released at 10 ET). USZs sank to new lows. A bottom of 108 30/32 developed at 13:00 ET.
USZs rallied sharply on the reports about the IDF intensifying its attack on Hamas in Gaza.
@MarinaMedvin: Bombshell: Hamas is running their terrorist campaign from inside of and underneath the biggest hospital in Gaza. The tunnel entrances are accessible from within the hospital. The biggest hospital in Gaza is the Hamas command center. https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1717901184986382364
@biancoresearch: The Russell 2000 closed below its 2022 low, its lowest close since November 2020. A stock index with no Magnificent Seven stocks is now 28% lower than its 2021 peak. https://t.co/n7kK5ZDavJ
Positive aspects of previous session. Fangs rallied on Amazon and AI fantasies
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined again December Gold rallied as much as 22.30 (to 2019.70)
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What happens next in the Middle East?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4125.95 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4156.70; 4103.78
@kylenabecker (Friday): Chaos at Grand Central Station as Pro-Palestinian demonstrators lay siege to New York City’s main transportation hub. Protesters clashed with police, who are making mass arrests https://t.co/vGNBQuk3jl
@emilykschrader: The UK demonstrations are NOT because of solidarity with Palestinians rather they are Islamic regime orchestrated. This is a national security issue. The Iranian regime is directing riots on foreign soil. This cannot be tolerated. https://t.co/qEMQ16IOth
@RobinBrooksIIF: Euro is in a long-term decline against the Dollar (blue). We’ve gone from 1.60 pre-2008 crisis to 1.05 now. In the past, markets refused to buy into this trend and they’re resistant now, which is why speculative positioning is long Euro (black). Euro is going back below parity… https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1718288599332913661
@Spotnewsth: During a rally in support of Palestine, Turkish President Erdoğan mentioned, ‘We can come at any night unexpectedly,’ and hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens chanted, ‘Turkish military to Gaza’ in response. (Turkey is in NATO.) https://twitter.com/Spotnewsth/status/1718266783335948681
@BlacklionCTA: TGA (Treasury General Acct.) at Wednesday’s close. Nobody in Congress is smart enough to understand the political battleground this is/will be going into next year’s election with no debt ceiling. Bonds are speaking about it and may be shouting after Wednesday. (3,10, & 30-yr auction) https://twitter.com/BlacklionCTA/status/1718387716700672043 This is the Federal Government’s checking account. The last debt ceiling ‘deal’ removed the debt ceiling until 2025 with an ‘agreement’ the TGA wouldn’t be increased beyond normal levels. We are 2x+ pre COVID now and climbing. Treasury can spend this down next year pre election. @ PauloMacro: Think she (Yellen) wants the home team reelected. Is part of reason why I keep saying she can do her part by skewing issuance to bills, fill the TGA above $1T, and then draw it down in 3Q in time for November for a nice liquidity kick in the a$$.
A few months ago, we noted that we layered our portfolio of Treasuries to account for the probable schemes that the Treasury and Fed would perform in 2024 to get The Big Guy reelected. It appears Yellen is loading up the Treasury General Account for mammoth unrestricted spending ahead of the election. The scheme could include interest rate suppression while inflation upticks. Ergo, there could be fiery hell to pay for Treasuries in 2025.
Today – This is Fed Week. Trader will play for the Monday and Fed Week Rallies as well as October performance gaming. The S&P 500 Index hit a low of 4103.78 on Friday. 4100 is very important support. A serious of lows near 4100 occurred in May; stocks then surged higher in June and July.
ESZs are +12.50 at 20:05 ET on expectations for the above-noted rallies; and cuz WW3 didn’t begin yet.
Expected Earnings: MCD 2.98
Expected Earnings: UPS 1.52, MRK 1.96, CMCSA .95, LUV .39, NOC 5.79, IP .58, HON 2.23, HSY 2.46, MA 3.23, TXT 1.30, NEM .38, MO 1.29, BMY 1.77, F .47, COF 3.26, INTC .21, AMZN .58
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4367; 100-day MA: 4408; 150-day MA: 4315; 200-day MA: 4240 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,972; 100-day MA: 34,293; 150-day MA: 34,005; 200-day MA: 33,812 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4425.18 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4232.87 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4145.68 triggers a buy signal
Speaker Mike Johnson says Biden in cognitive decline: ‘Just reality’ “This is not a personal slight to him. It has to do with age and acumen, and everyone’s different. Everyone ages differently.” “Clearly, if you look at a tape of Joe Biden making an argument in the Senate Judiciary Committee a few years ago and you see a speech that he delivers now, there’s a difference,” he added. “Again, it’s not a personal insult to him. It’s just reality.”… https://trib.al/yHsDBtu
Joe Biden sold a house for $1.2 million in 1996 and nearly three decades later it’s still only worth $1.65 million – Did he get paid over the odds by a donor? – It was purchased by an executive for a credit card company that, in the same year, also hired Biden’s son Hunter and then paid him for years… In the same year, MBNA employees contributed $62,850 to Biden for his Senate re-election campaign, and the house buyer donated the maximum $2,000. Also that year, Biden’s son Hunter was hired by MBNA and went on to become a senior vice president… https://trib.al/OVqovkE
@OliLondonTV: Hamas Crisis Actor pretends to be a victim of an Israeli air strike– appearing in a hospital bed while pretending to be in a critical condition as two supporting actors hold his hand. In reality, the man is a Hamas musician and actor who has been appearing in various videos for the terror group. One video he is seen celebrating in the streets as Hamas fire rockets towards Israel. In another video he can be seen ‘crying’ after claiming his apartment was hit by an airstrike. And in another video he is seen singing while brandishing a gun while praising Hamas. https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1717148430424752268
@visegrad24: A Palestinian scholar from the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem sends a message to the “Queers for Palestine-crowd” in the West: “The people of Palestine will not allow a single homosexual in our land,” such perversion brings the wrath of Allah.”https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1718214642017681602
@sentdefender (Friday night) The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has announced that it has carried out an Attack tonight utilizing 2 “Kamikaze” Drones against the U.S. Operations Base at Al-Tanf in Southern Syria near the Border with Jordan and Iraq. (Until Biden responds decisively…) https://t.co/CXThmshwNh
@sentdefender: According to the Israel Defense Force, over 150 underground targets were destroyed last night in the Gaza Strip by Israeli Aircraft using high-impact “Bunker Busting” munitions, while an IDF Military Officer stated, “We are using fire that has never been seen before in the Gaza Strip. From the air, from the ground or from the underground – the IDF will eliminate every senior or junior terrorist and every terrorist infrastructure of Hamas.”https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1718139401790738925
Campus antisemites are vile but administrators who protect them are just as complicit Suddenly the biggest promoters of cancel culture are very worried about “free speech.” Universities have spent years talking about “harmful language,” “microaggressions” and “safe spaces” — and punishing students for all kinds of speech. Kids were kicked out of school or had their acceptances rescinded for words they used before they ever got to college. Social-media posts that embarrass the school have been used as grounds for expulsion. Yet somehow these places of festering censorship have now fallen silent about explicit threats to Jewish students, citing their concern for protecting free-speech rights… https://nypost.com/2023/10/27/opinion/college-antisemites-are-vile-but-administrators-who-protect-them-are-just-as-complicit/
Broadway producer James L. Simon tears down Israeli hostage flier in NYC Simon, who has also produced Broadway revivals of “Pippin” and “Bells Are Ringing,” told The Post he took down the fliers for the purpose of keeping the city’s streets clean, not for antisemitic reasons, and apologized for offending anyone… https://trib.al/raMmUx9
Groups behind Israel-bashing protests backing Hamas attacks got $15M-plus from Soroshttps://trib.al/F5xeyld
@John_Kass: Nothing like simple truths and common sense to bring out the crazed Jew hating Bolsheviks. The Democrat left sides with the murderers of innocent Israelis. Democrats bite their lips. Silence = Consent
@NileGardiner: These “pro Palestine” protesters hate Israel. They also hate the United States, Great Britain and the free world. They are the enemies of Western civilization.
The hate for the Judeo-Christian West culture unites many leftist factions. Most citizens’ priorities are: faith, family, and country. But leftist cults are a religion that supersedes everything. Leftism uber alles!
@Jerusalem_Post: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that Israel’s bombardment of Gaza runs counter to international law and risks creating a catastrophe that could last decades. (not a joke!)
One-Sided Rules of War (Team Obama-Biden doesn’t harass Ukraine about the ‘rules of war.’) We’re hearing a lot of talk these days about the rules of war. All of it is aimed at Israel. No one is calling on Hamas to follow those rules… No one expects Hamas to obey civilization’s standard for conducting warfare. No one even thinks of calling on Hamas to do so… While Israel has assimilated the lessons of history, incredibly too many in the world have not — even after the horrors of the Holocaust… And what does proportionality actually mean in war? Hamas fired thousands of unguided missiles into Israel with the obvious intention of killing Israeli civilians. Would it be proportionate for Israel to fire the same number of unguided missiles into Gaza? Would it be proportionate for Israeli troops to rape Palestinian women? To target babies for murder? Mutilate and burn bodies? Capture civilians as hostages? That would be doing exactly the same thing as Hamas did… https://johnkassnews.com/one-sided-rules-of-war/?s=02
@michaelpsenger: NYU Professor calls for COVID amnesty on Bill Maher: “I wanted a harsher lockdown policy. In retrospect: I was wrong… But here’s the bottom line: We were doing our best. Let’s give a little grace and forgiveness.” https://twitter.com/michaelpsenger/status/1718296853899546842
@CPD1617Scanner (Chicago): Laws mean nothing if they aren’t enforced. A point lost on many Illinois voters, politicians and media. We can make all the laws in the world but when apologists make excuses for criminals, judges won’t/can’t hold them (thanks Safe-T act), politicians like Kim Foxx refuse to prosecute them, they don’t mean a damn thing.
@CWBChicago: A 17-year-old cut off his ankle monitor, went AWOL, and killed a man at a gas station, prosecutors said Thursday. He’s the 22nd person accused of shooting, killing, or trying to shoot or kill someone in Chicago this year while awaiting trial for a felony. https://t.co/UoAUsieGHw
@DeSantisWarRoom: Trump says you’re a loser if you expected him to get Mexico to pay for “a piece of the wall.” https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1718734969516744901 @FloridadadD: He’s mocking every last one of you that believed him the first time.
@EndWokeness: Gavin Newsom in China might’ve just accidentally started World War III. (Showboating his basketball skills, runs over a Chinese child – what type of ego would do this?) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1718632566331203612
“We should never forget the Constitution wasn’t written to restrain citizen’s behavior it was written to restrain the government’s behavior. Protecting the Constitution protects our liberties.” – Sen. Rand Paul
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Dr. Michael Palmer MD was a biochemistry professor at University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, and was fired from his job in 2022 when he refused the CV19 so-called “vaccine.” He now helps run Doctors4CovidEthics.org. It is a website dedicated to warning people of the dangers of the CV19 mRNA vaccines. Dr. Palmer has just written a book called “mRNA Vaccine Toxicity.” Dr. Palmer has well over 1,000 hours of personal research conducted on the mRNA vaccines, which he calls “poison.” Dr. Palmer also has an impressive list of contributors to his recent book that include world renowned microbiologist Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi (MD) and Catherine Austin Fitts, to name a few. Dr. Palmer says the CV19 vax was an “intentional murder program.” Dr. Palmer explains, “It was clear in 2020 that the risks that were being taken were completely unreasonable. It normally takes many years to develop a vaccine. . . these years were condensed into just a few months. . . . If you combine the radical shortening of time for testing, which on its own creates a huge risk, combined with a new technology (mRNA) that means the risk is incalculable. So, it’s completely irresponsible. . . .After the beginning of the vaccination campaign, and the first few weeks with disastrous results, it would have been necessary to immediately stop this campaign. What we have seen instead is relentless coercion, relentless censorship, relentless lying by the authorities about the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines. This must have been a necessity for these vaccines. This must be a deliberate policy to harm and kill.”
How does mRNA kill? Dr. Palmer’s research shows time and time again mRNA vaccines cause the immune system to attack and kill the CV19 injected. Dr. Palmer explains, “This is what we are seeing in the autopsy material. We see the immune system on the march, and it attacks just about any organ you could name. It differs a bit from patient to patient . . . but in many cases, you see attacks on the blood vessels. In quite a few cases, you see Myocarditis. That is quite common in autopsies. You see severe lung damage. This is all abundantly documented now. . . . I think this is designed to kill people while providing a cover story that says it is beneficial and protective. The main effect of these (mRNA) vaccines is to harm and kill people. That is what these vaccines are doing.”
Dr. Palmer contends mRNA is poison to the body no matter what vaccine it is used in. The medical community and Big Pharma want to use mRNA in all future vaccines. Dr. Palmer warns, “We need to stop all mRNA vaccines because the technology is fundamentally flawed. It will always produce the outcome that the body will begin destroying itself. . . . we commonly see destruction of the blood vessels, and this causes blood clots. You destroy the blood vessels, and then you get strokes and heart attacks. . . .This is a deliberate agenda of killing, not by the person who applied the shots, they may be honestly deceived. This is murder by the people who conceived this entire vaccination agenda and instituted mandates. These people are guilty of murder. There is no need to beat about the bush. . . . There is no other interpretation in my mind that this is deliberate murder, deliberate killing. The entire gene-based (mRNA) vaccine agenda is a deliberate poisoning and killing.”
Dr. Palmer also found the mRNA shots accelerate cancer growth and stop your immune system from fighting it. Dr. Palmer contends the term “turbo cancer” is an accurate description of the results from mRNA vaccines.
Dr. Palmer warns everyone not to take any mRNA vaccine, and this includes all future mRNA vaccines for the young and old. Dr. Palmer says not to take the flu shot either. In closing, Dr. Palmer says, “mRNA technology should be abandoned immediately, and every individual should do everything up to the stage of buying a gun to defend themselves from these poisons.”
AM2023.28
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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