NOV 9/GOLD CLOSED UP $12.50 TO $1964.60/SILVER CLOSED UP 17 CENTS TO $22.66//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $29.85 TO $894.75/WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $62.40 TO $1004.30//UPDATES RE ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL AGREES TO A 4 HR PAUSE//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//USA DATA RELEASES RE JOBLESS CLAIMS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT…/
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3 661 C JP MORGAN 3 690 C ABN AMRO 6 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 2
TOTAL: 8 8 MONTH TO DATE: 1,585
JPMorgan stopped 3/8 contracts.
FOR NOV.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2023. CONTRACT: 8 NOTICES FOR 800 OZ or 0.0248 TONNES
total notices so far: 1585 contracts for 158,500 oz (4.9300 tonnes)
FOR NOV:
SILVER NOTICES:1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 338 for 1,690,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $12.50//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 17 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 440.631 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 712 CONTRACTS TO 130,361 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.13 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS AN UNBELIEVABLE HUMONGOUS SIZED 6601 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 6601 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.13). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 373 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH SOME SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1055 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1055 CONTRACTS FOR 5.275 MILLION OZ) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 215,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP +49 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 245,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.405 MILLION OZ + .245 (EX. FOR RISK) = 2.710 MILLION OZ.
//SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 6601 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 865 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 days, total 2532 contracts: OR 12.560 MILLION OZ (361 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 12.560 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 12.560 MILLION OZ (GOING TO BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 712 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.13 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE 1055 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1055 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 215,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 2,405,000 OZ + .245 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTAL 2.71 MILLION OZ/// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 343 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 6601 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (6601) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4226 CONTRACTS TO 480,121 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 904 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4226 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $14.95 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP + TODAY’S 0 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR ISSUED: 3.1905 TONNES // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 8.1945 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $14.95 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 734 OI CONTRACTS (2.283 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4056 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 481,025
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 170 CONTRACTS WITH 4226 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 4056 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 170 CONTRACTS OR 0.528 TONNES. WE HAD 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): AN UNBELIEVABLE AND CRIMINAL 27,946 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4056 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4226) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 170 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP: NEW STANDING 5.004 TONNES + 3.1905 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR
//THUS NEW TOTAL FOR GOLD STANDING: 8.1945 TONNES // /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: MEGA– HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 27.945 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 25,243 CONTRACTS OR 2,524,300 OZ OR 78,52 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3606 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 78.52 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 78.52/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 78.52 TONNES//
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 712 CONTRACTS OI TO 130,361 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1075 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1075 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1075 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 153 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1055 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 343 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.715 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 57.17 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 479.98 PTS OR 1.49% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.2852 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2956 /Oil DOWN TO 75.74 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 80.07/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4226 CONTRACTS TO 480,121 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.95 ON WEDNESDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4056 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 4056 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4056 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 170 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4056 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4226 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.95//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER TOTALLY UNBELIEVABLE 27,946 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (8.1845 TONNES (ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $14.95) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF170 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 0.528 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:5.004 TONNES +3.1905 EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR; NEW TOTAL STANDING: 8.1845 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $14.95. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED –904 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 170 CONTRACTS OR 17000 OZ OR 0.528 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1585 notices 158500 oz 4.9300 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals NIL oz
Adjustments; 2//dealer to customer
i) JPMorgan 385.812 oz
ii) 6995.20 Manfra
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 32 contracts having LOST 7 contracts. We had 18 contracts filed on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
December LOST 30,759 contracts DOWN to 302,134 contracts.
JAN. gained 37 contracts RISING TO 876 contracts.
We had 8 contracts filed for today representing 800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1585x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (32 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 8 x 100 oz per contract equals 160,900 OZ OR 5.004 TONNES + 0 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY/3,1905 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR//THUS TOTAL STANDING: 8.1945 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV.contract month: No of notices filed so far (1585) x 100 oz + (32) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (8) x 100 oz) which equals 160,900oz standing OR 5.004 TONNES + 3.1905 EX FOR RISK FOR MONTH = 8.1945 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 8.1945 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,887,291.866 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,829,116.564 (305.726 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,829,116.564 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,948,577(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 247.23 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 9
//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
765.825.611 oz CNT Delaware Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
143 contracts (715,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
338 Contracts (1,690,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/266.665 million or 50.41%
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of CNT: 465,409.019 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 4206.012 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 295,710.580 oz
total: 765,825.580 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.327 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 266.665 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 144 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 22 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 43 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 215,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER AT THE COMEX
DEC. LOST 6299 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 80,129
JANUARY LOST 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 663
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 73,853// good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 95,990 very good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 338 x 5,000 oz = 1,690,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (144) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV/2023 contract month: 338 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (144) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 2.465 MILLION OZ + .245 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR RISK) =2.710 MILLION OZ
There are 38.327 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 867.28 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 440.631 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
.
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
With financial collapse and global war inching closer every day, you’d have to be an anxiety junkie to worry about distant things like demographic trends.
Still, the population debate is interesting, with economists, statisticians, and techies disagreeing over whether the world of 2100 will have too many people, too few, or just the right number. To summarize the three scenarios:
Too many people. We already exceed the Earth’s carrying capacity and developing country populations will continue to increase for at least the next half-century, leading to mass extinctions, degradation of farmland and aquifers, and widespread famine. Meanwhile, automation will eliminate millions of jobs, causing mass unemployment, civil unrest, and bankrupt governments. This is “negative feedback loop” all the way down.
Too few people. Birth rates are plunging and by mid-century there won’t be enough young workers to support a growing number of retirees, resulting in a global inflationary depression and/or massive cuts in social programs that leave millions of retirees destitute.
Just the right number. Theworkforce shrinks while automation eliminates jobs, keeping labor markets more or less in balance. Productive capacity expands, retirees are supported, and the environment starts to heal.
It really does matter which of these actually happens.
How we got here
The human population has exploded thanks to industrialization, fossil fuels, and better public health:
But now birth rates are plunging. A population is stable when the typical woman has 2.1 kids. During the past few millennia, that number was obviously a lot higher (see above). But lately, birth rates have plunged, with the “replacement rate” threshold just a few years off.
Here in the US, we’re tracking the global rate pretty closely:
Why the sudden fertility collapse?
The short answer is urbanization. In agricultural societies, children are free labor so people have lots of them. When people move from farms to cramped apartments in crowded cities, kids are more trouble than they’re worth, so families shrink. Today’s world is rapidly urbanizing, so fertility rates are plunging.
Some populations, including big ones like Germany and China, are already declining. But Italy is leading the way in Europe. From Reuters:
Births in Italy dropped to a new historic low below 400,000 in 2022, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Friday, as the population continued to shrink.
Italy’s dearth of babies is considered a national emergency, and fixing the problem was a prominent policy pledge by Giorgia Meloni ahead of last year’s election which saw her become the country’s first woman prime minister.
Last year Italy recorded more than 12 deaths for every seven births and the resident population fell by 179,000 to 58.85 million, ISTAT said in its annual demographic report.
Italy recorded 392,600 births in 2022, down from 400,249 the previous year, ISTAT said, the 14th consecutive fall and the lowest number since the country’s unification in 1861.
The fertility rate edged down to 1.24 children per woman from 1.25 in 2021. Italy’s overall population has been falling steadily since 2014, with a cumulative loss since then of more than 1.36 million people, equivalent to the residents of Milan, the country’s second biggest city.
ISTAT predicted in September that Italy could lose almost a fifth of its residents, with the population set to decline, under a baseline scenario, to 54.2 million in 2050 and 47.7 million in 2070.
Japan, meanwhile, offers a glimpse of Asia’s future:
(Nippon) – Japan’s population, which stood at 126.2 million in 2020, will drop below 100 million by 2056 and to 87 million or around two-thirds of the current figure by 2070, according to reported projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Japan’s population grew continuously after World War II, surpassing 100 million for the first time in 1967, during a period of rapid economic growth. After peaking at 128.1 million in 2008, however, the figure has been falling ever since. The 87-million projected population for 2070 is almost the same level as it was in 1953 when the country was still recovering from the aftermath of the war.
A breakdown of the population composition in 2070 shows 33.7 million people or 38.7% are predicted to be seniors aged 65 or over. In contrast, the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will be 45.4 million, meaning that the number of workers supporting each senior will decrease from 2.1 to 1.3. The working generation, who normally drive both production and consumption, may become overwhelmed by the extra burden of social security. The population of children, aged 0 to 14, is predicted to fall to 8.0 million by 2070, representing less than 10% of the total population, leading to concern that Japanese society will not be sustainable.
Can a single worker support both themself and a retiree? That doesn’t seem mathematically possible, hence the financial doomsday predictions.
Immigration to the rescue?
Fertility stats for individual countries don’t include the several billion poor, desperate people who would happily move to Europe, the US, or Japan. From the previously quoted Reuters article on Italy:
[Italy’s falling births were] offset by immigration, with immigrants exceeding emigrants by 229,000 last year compared with a net inflow of 160,000 in 2021. Foreigners made up 8.6% of the country’s population in 2022, for a total of 5.05 million.
So shrinking countries can, if necessary, just import new workers to maintain their population. But this risks the replacement of their culture with an alien one, thus defeating the purpose of the program. Better, perhaps, to stay Japanese or Italian to the bitter end than commit cultural suicide half a century early. For developed countries, this might be the central political debate of the next few decades.
Automation: savior or existential threat?
Goldman Sachs predicts that AI will automate 46% of administrative jobs, 44% of legal jobs, and 37% of architecture and engineering. In developed countries, this would mean 28% of workers being replaced by machines. In a sign of things to come, IBM recently announced plans to replace almost 8,000 jobs with AI, with human resources professionals being the first to go.
But Goldman notes that emerging technologies also create new jobs, so the net impact isn’t clear.
(Yahoo) – While speaking at the U.K.’s inaugural A.I. Safety Summit last week, serial founder, investor, and CEO Elon Musk predicted that AI would inevitably remove the need for all jobs.
“It’s hard to say exactly what that moment is, but there will come a point where no job is needed,” Musk told U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “You can have a job if you want to have a job, or sort of personal satisfaction, but the AI will be able to do everything.”
That may sound alarming to many, and even Musk joked that he wasn’t sure “if that makes people comfortable or uncomfortable.” But Musk’s perspective was apparently more positive, describing his vision as a “protopian” future with AI.
“I think everyone will have access to this magic genie, and you’re able to ask any question. It’ll be certainly bigger for education. It’ll be the best tutor,” he said. “And there will be no shortage of goods and services. It will be an age of abundance.”
He also suggested AI will lead to a “universal high income,” an apparent superior to universal basic income, which other Silicon Valley figures like Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg have advocated for. “We won’t have universal basic income. We’ll have universal high income,” Musk said, without clarifying how the two differ. “In some sense, it’ll be somewhat of a leveler, an equalizer.”
Totally manageable transition
The deeper one digs into the population issue, the less scary it becomes. For every demographic threat, there’s a solution. But since the (always preferable) laissez-faire approach won’t work in cultures where free individuals are choosing not to reproduce, this might be an issue where even libertarians will have to hold their noses and accept major government interventions. Some examples:
Low birth rate countries can create immigration programs that actively recruit adults with useful skills, and/or young people from compatible cultures (emphasis on “compatible”). Then eschew multiculturalism and encourage/demand assimilation. The work gets done and the culture survives.
Low birth rate countries can also just pay people to breed. As with most other things, there’s a number that gets results, and a coordinated policy of tax breaks, direct cash payments, and subsidies for daycare, education, housing, etc., might make parenting an attractive job. Ideally, the extra kids thus produced would more than cover their cost by working and paying taxes.
If automation is eliminating too many jobs, tax the robots’ owners and use the proceeds to finance new private sector opportunities, institute mandatory national service, and/or beef up the social safety net. This is a version of Elon Musk’s “post-scarcity” techno-utopia, and the sudden emergence of AI brings it into sight.
Assuming we get through this decade’s immediate threats, it might be a relief to confront some problems that have actual solutions.
Gold market rigging is just part of central banking’s comprehensive rigging and deception
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-11-08 14:12Section: Daily Dispatches
2:31p ET Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Today’s edition of The King Report, the outstanding daily financial letter written by Bill King of M. Ramsey King Securities in Burr Ridge, Illinois, is excerpted below, reminding readers that surreptitious manipulation of the markets by the U.S. government extends far beyond gold — that it is and long has been comprehensive.
For example, who has ever seen a mainstream financial news organization, financial letter writer, or gold market analyst (outside of GATA) pursuing the bombshell that was buried in a Bloomberg report from July 31 last year about the prosecution of the JPMorganChase gold traders for manipulating the monetary metals markets? The Bloomberg report was headlined “From Profits to Pay, JPMorgan’s Gold Secrets Spill Out in Court” —
The report’s very last paragraph reads: “Another set of important clients were central banks, which trade gold for their reserves and are among the biggest players in the bullion market. At least 10 central banks held their metal in vaults run by JPMorgan in 2010, according to documents disclosed in court.”
Even Bloomberg itself does not seem to have pursued this detail — that central banks do far more with their gold reserves than let them sit in their own vaults as emergency cash; that they also store gold reserves with JPMorgan, the biggest bullion bank, because they are actively trading the monetary metal, intervening in the gold market surreptitiously to influence currency exchange rates and asset prices, as Bank for International Settlements executive William R. White admitted they do in 2005:
Manipulation of the gold market is bad enough. Indeed, it is crucial to the manipulation of other markets insofar as the price of gold powerfully influences interest rates and the price of everything else. If allowed to trade freely, gold would expose the falsity of manipulated prices.
But even worse is that even in nominally democratic countries the basic underlying purpose of modern central banking is deception.
The power of governments and central banks to create and allocate infinite money and thus control the prices of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world is a huge power. But it is not their greatest power. Their greatest power is conferred upon them by the failure of financial news organizations to challenge them and expose their deception.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
UK sanctions gold and oil traders in new Russian clampdown
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-11-08 19:53Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jonathan Browning Bloomberg News Wednesday, November 8, 2023
The UK government today targeted Russian gold miners, the largest refiner, and a Dubai-based trader involved in routing funds to Moscow as part of a package of fresh sanctions tied to the country’s gold and oil sectors.
The UK sanctioned Nord Gold and Highland Gold Mining Ltd. alongside Krastsvetmet JSC, the biggest precious metals refinery in Russia.
They were sanctioned together with more than two dozen other individuals and companies, including oil trader Paramount Energy & Commodities DMCC, which was accused of using deceptive practices to avoid sanctions.
The government also targeted a United Arab Emirates-based network that it says channeled $300 million of gold sales to Russia. …
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: DIAMONDS
Russia is a huge exporter of diamonds
(zerohedge)
EU Could Ban Russian Diamonds As Soon As Next Week
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Although Russia’s economy has not collapsed under Western sanctions, the European Union is preparing to unveil another round of sanctions, focusing on Moscow’s diamond exports, potentially as early as next week.
At the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Japan, EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told the Financial Times that the EU has secured enough backing from G7 countries on the new ban, as well as support from Belgium – one of the world’s leading diamond traders.
“In order for [EU] member states to be unanimous for the ban on diamond trade, some were requesting that the G7 were giving, let’s say, political coverage,” said Borrell.
He added: “Well, this has been done and the co-ordination has worked and we will be able to put the package of sanctions in front of [foreign ministers on Monday. “
Borrell said the foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US have agreed to “reduce the revenues Russia extracts from exports” and cited “non-industrial diamonds, including those mined.”
There was chatter among G7 leaders in May about restricting the Russian diamond trade, as well as in September when Belgian officials told reporters the new trade restriction would go into effect on Jan. 1.
Last year, Russian mining giant Alrosa PJSC’s diamonds were still flowing onto global markets despite the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control hitting the company with sanctions.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Anglo American Plc’s De Beers and Alrosa PJSC accounted for nearly 60% of all rough diamond sales worldwide, with De Beers accounting for 33% and Alrosa for 24%.
De Beers recently said the diamond industry supports the West’s efforts against Russia:
“The question is how we can do this collectively and effectively so that all parts of the industry – large and small – are represented.”
The challenging part will be getting India, the mecca of diamond cutting and polishing, on board with trade restrictions.
According to trade data, Russia is the largest producer of rough diamonds, exporting more than $4 billion.
De Beers reported today that October’s diamond sale was only $80 million – compared with the same month last year of $454 million. Last month’s sale was the worst since the early days of the pandemic.
Should the EU proceed with sanctions on Russian diamonds, they could transform rough diamond supply chains worldwide overnight.
END
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2852
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2956
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 57.17 PTS OR 0.33%
2. Nikkei closed UP 479.98 PTS OR 1.49%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.54 EURO FALLS TO 1.0693 DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.835 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.11/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6540***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.517*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.698…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.875
3j Gold at $1945.45 silver at: 22.52 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 03 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.06//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.11// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.835% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9007 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9628 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.564 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.686 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.959 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.50…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 4.3130
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
S&P Futures Rise, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2004
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 08:10 AM
S&P 500 futures edged higher on Thursday after notching an eight-day streak of gains, and setting up the benchmark index for its longest winning streak since 2004, as investors monitored bond yields, corporate earnings and the price of oil. Treasuries fell and the dollar rose ahead of more speeches by central bank officials including more remarks by Fed chair Powell. After a listless overnight session, as of 7:45am S&P futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq was down by a similar amount. Elsewhere, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6%, Asian stocks closed green, oil hovered near a three-month low after plunging almost 7% over the previous two sessions, yields on 10-year Treasuries held below 4.5%, the dollar gained and bitcoin was set to rise above $37,000, an 18 month high.
While the rapid momentum has fizzled out, the S&P 500 has inched higher every day this week and if the index closes up for another day, it would be the 9th day in a row stocks have risen (alternatively the VIX is now also down for 9 straight days). As DB’s Jim Reid notes this morning, although a 9-day run has happened 31 times in the last 95 years it actually hasn’t happened since 2004. And If we end the week with 2 more up days, the 10-day run will be the first since 1995, even though they’ve happened every 6.3 years on average over the last 95 years.
In summary, in the last 95 years:
An 8-day winning streak has happened 63 times (average c. every 1.5 years)
A 9-day streak has happened 31 times (average c. every 3.1 years)
A 10-day streak has happened 15 times (average c. every 6.3 years)
An 11-day streak has happened 8 times (average c. every 11.9 years)
A 12-day streak has happened 5 times (average c. every 19 years)
A 13-day streak has happened 1 time (average c. every 95 years)
A 14-day streak has happened 1 time (average c. every 95 years)
In premarket trading, Walt Disney gained 4% after profit beat estimates. Arm Holdings Plc sank 4.7% after the chip designer issued a disappointing sales forecast as the company is pressured by a weak smartphone market and uncertainties surrounding new licensing deals. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks rose as Bitcoin extends gains for a fourth consecutive session to touch its highest level since May 2022. The recent rally is led by expectations of an approval for exchange traded funds to invest in the largest crypto token. Coinbase +4.2%, Riot Platforms +6.3%, Marathon Digital +10%, Hut 8 Mining +8.9%. Disney shares gained 3.8% after the media company reported better-than-expected 4Q adjusted earnings and a strong read on subscribers for its streaming-video service. The company also said it plans to resume paying a dividend for the first time since the pandemic. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Affirm Holdings shares rally 14% after the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) company posted first-quarter revenue that was ahead of consensus. The firm forecast revenue for the second quarter of $495 million to $520 million, compared to analyst estimates for $505.9 million.
Bill Holdings shares tumble 8.8% as Bloomberg News reports that the company, which provides financial-automation software to small and mid-size businesses, is in advanced talks to acquire the digital payment tools provider Melio Payments.
Cardlytics shares sink 35% after the digital advertising company gave a fourth-quarter outlook that fell short of consensus and reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Lyft shares fall 1.7% after the ride-hailing company gave a lackluster revenue outlook for the holiday period, overshadowing the company’s third-quarter revenue beat.
Tesla shares fall 1.7% as HSBC initiated coverage on the electric-vehicle maker’s stock with a recommendation of reduce, citing the timing of delivery as its primary concern.
In global equity markets, the recent upswing is down to conviction that the Federal Reserve and other policy makers are done hiking interest rates, even as officials caution that they won’t be quick to cut. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos told Slovenia’s Finance newspaper that any talk of lowering borrowing costs in the coming months is too early. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the IMF’s annual research conference and ECB President Christine Lagarde is also scheduled to deliver remarks later today.
“Markets are listening to central bankers, but they’re also taking on board recent data and are becoming more confident that further hikes are off the table,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.
It’s not just stocks: rates traders are also betting that the steepest global tightening cycle in a generation is over. Swaps signal the average cash rate for developed economies will be steady over the coming six months, the first time in two years that they’re not pricing in a hike over that time frame, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill reinforced that view on Thursday, saying the BOE doesn’t need to raise rates further because policy is already restrictive enough. UK markets are pricing in three quarter-point rate cuts, starting in August next year.
European markets extended gains, with the Stoxx 600 adding 0.6% with chemical, industrial and real estate shares leading gains. Sentiment was boosted by a 32% surge in shares of Adyen NV, a Dutch payments processor that competes with PayPal Holdings Inc. The company unveiled growth targets and a pathway to achieving them, a key sign that it’s intent on winning back investor confidence. Here are the most notable European movers:
Adyen shares soar as much as 37% in Amsterdam, the biggest gain since June 2018. The payment firm’s 3Q sales were much better than expected and its new medium-term goals appear more realistic and credible, according to analysts
AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 4.2%, after the pharmaceuticals company reported better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter, raised its profit outlook for the year and clinched a deal to develop a drug targeting patients with diabetes and obesity
Deutsche Telekom shares gain as much as 1.6% to the highest level since May, after the telecom operator reported estimate-beating results in Europe. Operational metrics in home market of Germany were seen as strong by analysts as pricing pressure eases
Auto Trader shares gains as much as 7.7%, the most since March 2022, with analysts flagging a revenue beat at the automotive marketplace operator’s first-half results
Henkel shares gain as much as 4% in Frankfurt after the German consumer-products group reported third-quarter organic sales growth that was higher than consensus expectations
Nexi shares soar as much as 11% and are the best performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index after the Italian payments specialist reported broadly in-line third-quarter results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance
Airbus shares fall as much as 3.1% after it reported third-quarter results below expectations due to a charge related to satellite development programs, but analysts say they do see some signs of positives for the planemaker
Coloplast falls as much as 6.4%, the most since Aug. 17, after the Danish ostomy and continence care firm’s 2024 guidance fell short of expectations, with Bernstein flagging continued struggles with profitability as a key negative
KBC shares fell as much as 5.8%, to the lowest in year, after the Belgian bank cut its net interest income forecast for the full year, a move which analysts said would hurt its valuation moving forward
Flutter shares dive as much as 12%, the steepest one-day drop since March 2022, after the gambling firm reported 3Q earnings that failed to impress. Though analysts made note of a soft quarter, the stock remains a highlight among gambling firms at Goodbody and Morgan Stanley
ArcelorMittal falls as much as 2% after the world’s top steelmaker outside China reported a drop in third-quarter profit as steel prices declined in key markets due to weaker demand
B&M European Value Retail shares drop as much as 7.3%, after the discount retailer reported third-quarter adjusted Ebitda that missed estimates. RBC Capital Markets said the guidance was a “touch below” consensus and noted a slow start to the third quarter
Asia’s stocks also closed higher Thursday following a two-day decline, with Japan helping to lead gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4%, with Toyota, Samsung and Nintendo among the biggest boosts. Shares in Vietnam, Singapore, Australia and South Korea also advanced. Key gauges in Hong Kong declined after data showed that Chinese consumer prices fell more than expected in October — mainland benchmarks were little changed.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Mainland China flat/firmer whilst the latest Chinese inflation metrics painted a picture of a fragile economy as the nation fell back into deflation. Hong Kong underperformed as the Property sector dragged the index lower.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was firmer from the start as the recent JPY weakness lent exporters a hand and the index eventually topped 32,500.
Australia’s ASX 200 saw its upside supported by Health and Financials, with the latter as NAB rose post-earnings, although the IT and Energy sectors lagged.
India stocks fell amid weakness in technology and consumer staple companies. Reliance Industries declines most in two weeks. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 64,832.20 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.3% to 19,395.30.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises for a fourth day, adding 0.1%. The euro and the Swiss franc are the weakest of the G-10 currencies. The Kiwi is the strongest.
In rates, treasuries dropped, led by the long-end and partially unwinding the effect on 2s10s and 5s30s of Wednesday’s curve-flattening rally ahead of the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction later on Thursday. US 10-year yields rise 4bps to 4.54%. Traders are also watching for comments from Fed Chair Powell at an IMF event. Bunds and gilts are on the back foot as well. UK bonds were weighed down by comments from Bank of England chief economist Pill who seemed to recalibrate his dovish language from earlier in the week.
In commodities, oil prices finally advanced, with WTI rising 0.9% to trade near $76. Spot gold falls 0.2%.
Bitcoin rose sharply again, rising as high as $37,000. Among other news, the SEC has reportedly opened talks with Grayscale Investments on the details of the company’s application to convert its trust product GBTC to a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, according to CoinDesk citing sources.
To the day ahead now, there is an array of central bank speakers, including Bostic (9:30am), Barkin (11am), Paese (12pm) and Powell (2pm), who participates in a panel discussion on monetary policy challenges in a global economy at the IMF’s annual research conference (text and Q&A expected). US economic data scheduled for the session includes initial jobless claims at 8:30am New York time.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,402.00
MXAP up 0.4% to 157.17
MXAPJ little changed at 491.91
Nikkei up 1.5% to 32,646.46
Topix up 1.3% to 2,335.12
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 17,511.29
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,053.28
Sensex down 0.2% to 64,813.78
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,014.90
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,427.08
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 445.46
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.64%
Euro little changed at $1.0702
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $80.33/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,946.91
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 105.55
Top Overnight News
China’s CPI fell back into deflation territory in Oct (-0.2% vs. the Street -0.1% and vs. 0.0% in Sept) while PPI deflation deepened to -2.6% (vs. -2.6% in Sept and vs. the Street -2.7%). FT
Cloud Software Group, which owns enterprise-software brand Citrix, is ceasing business transactions in China, becoming the latest U.S. company to pull back from China. In an email to clients and partners on Monday seen by The Wall Street Journal, Cloud Software Group said it has made the decision to cease all new commercial transactions in China, including Hong Kong, on Dec. 3. It cited rising costs in the market. WSJ
White House hopes to announce a new commitment from China to stem the flow of fentanyl into the US along w/a resumption of military communication following the Biden-Xi summit. NBC News
BOJ’s Ueda says the central bank will be careful when raising rates to avoid creating volatility (he added that while some progress is happening toward achieving the desired level of inflation, “there’s still some distance to cover”). FT
Mario Draghi has delivered a downbeat view of EU economic growth, forecasting a recession by the end of this year, as he warned that the European project’s long-term survival depends on urgent political integration. FT
US strikes Iranian weapons facility in Syria in retaliation for attacks against American forces in the region by Tehran-backed proxies. WaPo
America’s long streak of population growth is expected to come to an end. Census Bureau projections released Thursday show that, under the most likely scenario, the U.S. will stop growing by 2080 and shrink slightly by 2100. Slowing growth would produce a peak U.S. population of almost 370 million before an ebb to 366 million in the final years of the century, according to the bureau. WSJ
Hollywood actors and studios reached a tentative deal to end a 118-day strike. The contract — worth over $1 billion — includes unprecedented restrictions on the use of AI and the first-ever performance-based bonuses, the actors’ union said. BBG
Apple risks having to pay a €13 billion ($14 billion) tax bill to Ireland after an adviser to the European Union’s top court said the iPhone maker’s victory in an earlier challenge should be thrown out. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly firmer following a similar lead from Wall Street with most major APAC markets in the green although Chinese markets saw more of a muted performance. ASX 200 saw its upside supported by Health and Financials, with the latter as NAB rose post-earnings, although the IT and Energy sectors lagged. Nikkei 225 was firmer from the start as the recent JPY weakness lent exporters a hand and the index eventually topped 32,500. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Mainland China flat/firmer whilst the latest Chinese inflation metrics painted a picture of a fragile economy as the nation fell back into deflation. Hong Kong underperformed as the Property sector dragged the index lower.
Top Asian News
Japan’s Government will seek JPY 2tln (USD 13.2bln) in budget funding to support chip production and advances in generative AI technology, including more aid for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), according to Nikkei.
BoJ Oct Summary of Opinions: one member said must patiently maintain monetary easing; One member said that given extremely high uncertainty and must take steps to make YCC operation more flexible. Click here for the detailed headline.
BoJ Governor Ueda reiterates that firms becoming more active in raising prices and wages than before, according to Reuters.
Ex-BoJ executive Maeda said the BoJ may end the negative interest rate policy in January and keep raising short-term rates in stages, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 202bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 8bln net daily injection.
RBI Governor Das said India’s current account deficit remains eminently manageable, and they have bolstered FX reserves to deal with potential eventualities.
BoJ’s Ueda cautions that unwinding ultra-loose policy is a serious challenge, adding that the BoJ will move carefully on raising interest rates, via FT. On commitment to quantitative/qualitative easing until inflation target is attained says: “We are making progress towards achieving this same goal, but there’s still some distance to cover before we can scrap the forward guidance,”. In the scenario of an overshoot in inflation, believe we will be able to deal with it by lifting rates. Rate of growth of wages, around 2%, will need to continue and at a slightly higher rate. Yet to decide what order they would terminate the measures which are in place.
Japan lobby head urges BoJ to normalise policy to live with interest rates; the leader said the BoJ should unwind its easing programmes to live with interest rates although it may take a year to exit monetary stimulus.
European bourses are in the green with newsflow relatively limited and the tone gradually improving throughout the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%. Action which follows a more mixed APAC handover, where China and Hong Kong underperformed on inflation data and the property sector respectively. Sectors are primarily in the green, with Industrials outperforming after Schneider Electric though Airbus’ update has capped gains. At the other end of the spectrum, Travel & Leisure is in the red after Flutter Entertainment’s report. Stateside, futures are making their way into the green as we near the commencement of US cash trade, ES +0.2%; with action for much of the session near-unchanged and tentative/rangebound. EU court advisor has backed the EU’s USD 14bln tax order to Apple (AAPL); advisor agrees with the Commission’s view that the General Court erred when the case against Apple was thrown out, proposes the case is referred back for a new decision. Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly planning to unveil three new chips for China, via Star Market Daily citing sources; to be announced as soon as November 16th
Top European News
BoE’s Pill assumes rates are to stay restrictive for an extensive period. Inflation remains much too high. No grounds for complacency when it comes to inflation. Do not need to raise rates to bear down on inflation. Need a persistent level of restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. If the economic situation changes, will need to change policy. BoE does not make promises when it comes to interest rates. Slowing growth does not appear to be lowering inflation or firms pricing power.
The German Government reached an agreement on electricity price support for the industry, via Handelsblatt citing sources; agreement for five years, relief will amount to over EUR 10bln in the coming year alone.
FX
Buck back on recovery track after midweek time out as Treasury yields rebound and curve re-steepens, DXY towards top end of 105.67-46 band.
Yen losing ground sub-151.00 vs Dollar as BoJ Governor Ueda continues to bang the dovish drum.
Euro capped by heavy 1.0700+ option expiry interest against the Greenback, and Franc underpinned by expiries above 0.9000.
Pound propped around 1.2300 and 0.8700 vs Euro after BoE’s Pill pushes the case for a prolonged period of restrictive policy.
Kiwi elevated ahead of NZ manufacturing PMI, as NZD/USD grips 0.5900 handle and AUD/NZD slips under 1.0800.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1772 vs exp. 7.2723 (prev. 7.1773)
Fixed Income
Debt futures regress after upside extension and curves flip a bit from bull-flattening.
Bunds fade closer to 131.00 within a 130.93-39 range, Gilts retreat from 96.14 to 95.35.
T-note towards the base of 108-04/17 band as 10 year yield fails to hold below 4.5% ahead of US jobless claims, long bond auction and more Fed speak.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session though the magnitude of the move pales in comparison to the downside seen WTD and since the middle of October when the Israel-Hamas geopolitical premium peaked, so far at least.
As it stands, WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 are posting upside of just under USD 1/bbl on the session; but, have only been able to recover to around the mid-point of Wednesday’s USD 74.91-77.53/bbl parameters in WTI at best.
Metals are modestly softer but with action relatively contained as the USD inches higher and the overall risk tone remains firmer in Europe but much more tentative thus far stateside.
Chinese importers bought at least five more US soybean cargoes on Wednesday for Dec-Mar shipment, according to Reuters citing traders.
China Commerce Ministry said China is to re-investigate anti-dumping duties case on stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot-rolled sheets and coils imported from the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, according to Reuters.
China Vice Premier Ding will increase coal, natural gas production and actively expand imports of resources to ensure stable energy supply this winter.
Geopolitics
US military forces confirm it conducted a self-defence strike on a facility in eastern Syria, according to the Pentagon; the strike is a response to attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by IRGC-Quds Force affiliates.
Two marches attack on the Silk base in Iraq and sirens sound at the US embassy [in Iraq]”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas is reportedly discussing the possible release of a few hostages in exchange for a brief pause in fighting, officials said via NYT.
Vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, in a meeting with Russian President Putin, said “China is ready to work with Russia to jointly safeguard the two countries’ interests and safeguard global and regional prosperity and stability”, according to Global Times.
Germany will send four fighter jets to Romania to support NATO’s air policing mission from the end of November, according to Reuters sources.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1.82m, prior 1.82m
08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218,000, prior 217,000
Central Bank Speakers
09:30: Fed’s Bostic and Barkin Speak on Survey Data
11:00: Fed’s Barkin Discusses Fed Policy, US Economy outlook
12:00: Fed’s Paese Speaks About the Economy and Monetary Policy
14:00: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Panel at IMF Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The bond rally continued over the last 24 hours, with long-end yields falling to their lowest level in weeks as investors grew more confident that inflation was set to fall back and that central banks were now finished with their rate hikes. In part, that was driven by another round of oil price declines, with Brent crude closing beneath $80/bbl for the first time since July, whilst WTI closed beneath $76/bbl. And even though risk assets lost some of their recent momentum given the concerns about economic demand, the S&P 500 (+0.10%) still managed to post an 8th consecutive gain for the first time since late-2021. In fact, if we manage to get a 9th consecutive advance today, that would make it the longest run of gains since 2004, although futures for the S&P 500 are slightly negative overnight, with a -0.03% decline .
For Treasuries, there was a sizeable rally at the long-end of the curve, with yields falling to their lowest levels in some time. Most notably, the 10yr yield fell back -7.4bps to a 6-week low of 4.49%, marking the first time it’s closed below 4.5% since the Friday after the September FOMC meeting. That rally had been underway early in the session, but there was a further advance thanks to a mixed $40bn 10yr auction, with a positive reaction to the market’s ability to digest increased issuance volumes. The 30yr yield was down by a larger -11.1bps to 4.61% ahead of the 30yr auction today. That’s a sizeable decline from their recent levels, as it was only on Tuesday of last week that the 30yr yield closed at 5.09%.
Those moves come as there are already signs that this decline is filtering through to the real economy, with data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showing that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was down -25bps to 7.61% over the week ending November 3. That’s the biggest weekly decline since July 2022, as well as the third-biggest weekly decline since the GFC. And in turn, it helped the index of mortgage applications for home purchase rise from its lowest level since 1995 the previous week.
Over in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.3bps), OATs (-5.0bps) and BTPs (-6.7bps) all moving lower. Inflation expectations drove the decline, with the 10yr German breakeven down -2.6bps to 2.12%, which is its lowest closing level since January. And that was evident across the wider Euro Area too, with the 5y5y forward inflation swap (-1.0bps) falling to its lowest in nearly six months, at 2.43% .
The main catalyst for that decline in inflation expectations was the sharp move lower in commodity prices. In particular, energy prices fell across the board, with Brent crude oil (-2.54%) down to $79.54/bbl, and WTI (-2.64%) down to $75.33/bbl. That’s come as investors have become increasingly concerned about economic demand, not least after several weaker-than-expected data releases since the start of the month. And the moves were evident across several different commodities, with European natural gas down -1.93%, copper down -1.11% and gold down -0.52% .
Central bankers themselves provided little direction for yesterday’s moves. We did hear from Fed Chair Powell, although he didn’t discuss the outlook for Fed policy, so attention will now turn to his appearance later today, where he’s speaking on a panel at an IMF conference. When it came to the ECB, we did hear from Bundesbank President Nagel, who said that “I don’t like this discussion going on about when will be the point you lower interest rates”. That was echoed by the Central Bank of Ireland’s Governor Makhlouf, who said that it was “far too early in my view to start talking about when we’ll start reducing or cutting rates”. Furthermore, despite the moves lower in market-based inflation expectations, the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey found that in September, median inflation expectations at the 1yr horizon were up half a point to 4.0%, which is their highest level since April. Looking further out at the 3yr horizon, they were unchanged at 2.5%.
Equities lost momentum but still managed to continue their recent advance, with the S&P 500 (+0.10%) extending its run to 8 consecutive gains, the longest since November 2021. Furthermore, the VIX index of volatility was down for an 8th consecutive session as well (-0.4pts to 14.5), which was its longest run of declines since 2015. However, this equity advance was a narrow one as 55% of S&P stocks actually fell on the day, with energy stocks and other defensive sectors among the worst performers. Indeed, other indices struggled including the Dow Jones (-0.12%) and the Russell 2000 (-1.10%), with the latter falling back for a 3rd consecutive day, bringing its decline for the week so far to -2.65%. On the other hand, megacap tech stocks outperformed with the FANG+ Index up +0.47%. Over in Europe, there was also a relatively stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.28%) bouncing back from its losses on Monday and Tuesday, whilst the DAX was also up +0.51% .
Overnight in Asia , we’ve seen a mixed performance for the major equity indices. Some have seen decent advances, with the Nikkei up +1.52%, and the KOSPI up +0.53%. However, the Shanghai Comp (+0.03%) and the CSI 300 (-0.01%) have seen little movement, and the Hang Seng (-0.25%) has lost ground. That comes as data from China showed that consumer prices were down -0.2% year-on-year in October (vs. -0.1% expected), whilst producer prices were down -2.6% (vs. -2.7% expected) .
To the day ahead now, and there’s several central bank speakers to hear from, including Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin and Paese, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Villeroy and Lane, as well as the BoE’s Pill. In addition, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and on the data side, we’ve got the US weekly jobless claims coming out. Otherwise, there’s a 30yr US Treasury auction taking place.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT))
Equities boosted, DXY & NZD bid, US 10-yr yield surpasses 4.50%; Fed’s Powell due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 06:07 AM
European bourses march firmly into the green whilst US futures post gains to a lesser extent; RTY outperforms after heavy losses in recent sessions
Dollar is firmer ahead of Fed Chair Powell, with the Kiwi outperforming as it benefits from AUD/NZD cross-selling
Debt gives back some of the prior session’s gains with US 10-year yield surpassing 4.50%, though benchmarks are off worst
Crude attempts to claw back some of the losses felt over the week; potentially assisted by news that the US military conducted strikes in eastern Syria
Highlights include US IJC, NZ Manufacturing PMI, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde, Banxico Policy Announcement, Supply from US
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the green with newsflow relatively limited and the tone gradually improving throughout the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
Action which follows a more mixed APAC handover, where China and Hong Kong underperformed on inflation data and the property sector respectively.
Sectors are primarily in the green, with Industrials outperforming after Schneider Electric though Airbus’ update has capped gains. At the other end of the spectrum, Travel & Leisure is in the red after Flutter Entertainment’s report.
Stateside, futures are making their way into the green as we near the commencement of US cash trade, ES +0.2%; with action for much of the session near-unchanged and tentative/rangebound.
EU court advisor has backed the EU’s USD 14bln tax order to Apple (AAPL); advisor agrees with the Commission’s view that the General Court erred when the case against Apple was thrown out, proposes the case is referred back for a new decision.
Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly planning to unveil three new chips for China, via Star Market Daily citing sources; to be announced as soon as November 16th
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session though the magnitude of the move pales in comparison to the downside seen WTD and since the middle of October when the Israel-Hamas geopolitical premium peaked, so far at least.
As it stands, WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 are posting upside of just under USD 1/bbl on the session; but, have only been able to recover to around the mid-point of Wednesday’s USD 74.91-77.53/bbl parameters in WTI at best.
Metals are modestly softer but with action relatively contained as the USD inches higher and the overall risk tone remains firmer in Europe but much more tentative thus far stateside.
Chinese importers bought at least five more US soybean cargoes on Wednesday for Dec-Mar shipment, according to Reuters citing traders.
China Commerce Ministry said China is to re-investigate anti-dumping duties case on stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot-rolled sheets and coils imported from the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, according to Reuters.
China Vice Premier Ding will increase coal, natural gas production and actively expand imports of resources to ensure stable energy supply this winter.
BoE’s Pill assumes rates are to stay restrictive for an extensive period. Inflation remains much too high. No grounds for complacency when it comes to inflation. Do not need to raise rates to bear down on inflation. Need a persistent level of restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. If the economic situation changes, will need to change policy. BoE does not make promises when it comes to interest rates. Slowing growth does not appear to be lowering inflation or firms pricing power.
The German Government reached an agreement on electricity price support for the industry, via Handelsblatt citing sources; agreement for five years, relief will amount to over EUR 10bln in the coming year alone.
EUROPEAN DATA
UK RICS Housing Survey* (Oct) -63 (Prev. -69.0); “Pace of house price falls ‘showing signs of steadying as the end of year approaches”.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Harker (2023 vote) said he supported a steady interest rate stance at the latest FOMC meeting; Fed will stay higher for longer, no sign of near-term rate cuts. He added now is a time to take stock of past rate hikes’ impact. He added the next Fed rate choice “could go either way” depending on data, and he sees no recession, but growth likely to cool off. Click here for more details.
Fed’s Goolsbee (Dove, 2023 Voter) says the Fed need to watch for risks of overshooting on rates; higher long-term yields can have a substantial effect if sustained, via WSJ.
Morgan Stanley’s (MS) wealth-management arm is reportedly being probed by the Fed; looking into whether the bank has sufficient controls in place to prevent rich foreign customers from laundering money, according to WSJ.
Striking actors reportedly reached a tentative labour agreement with Hollywood studios, according to a union statement.
US military forces confirm it conducted a self-defence strike on a facility in eastern Syria, according to the Pentagon; the strike is a response to attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by IRGC-Quds Force affiliates.
Two marches attack on the Silk base in Iraq and sirens sound at the US embassy [in Iraq]”, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas is reportedly discussing the possible release of a few hostages in exchange for a brief pause in fighting, officials said via NYT.
Vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, in a meeting with Russian President Putin, said “China is ready to work with Russia to jointly safeguard the two countries’ interests and safeguard global and regional prosperity and stability”, according to Global Times.
Germany will send four fighter jets to Romania to support NATO’s air policing mission from the end of November, according to Reuters sources.
CRYPTO
US SEC has reportedly opened talks with Grayscale Investments on the details of the company’s application to convert its trust product GBTC to a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, according to CoinDesk citing sources.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly firmer following a similar lead from Wall Street with most major APAC markets in the green although Chinese markets saw more of a muted performance.
ASX 200 saw its upside supported by Health and Financials, with the latter as NAB rose post-earnings, although the IT and Energy sectors lagged.
Nikkei 225 was firmer from the start as the recent JPY weakness lent exporters a hand and the index eventually topped 32,500.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with Mainland China flat/firmer whilst the latest Chinese inflation metrics painted a picture of a fragile economy as the nation fell back into deflation. Hong Kong underperformed as the Property sector dragged the index lower.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Japan’s Government will seek JPY 2tln (USD 13.2bln) in budget funding to support chip production and advances in generative AI technology, including more aid for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), according to Nikkei.
BoJ Oct Summary of Opinions: one member said must patiently maintain monetary easing; One member said that given extremely high uncertainty and must take steps to make YCC operation more flexible. Click here for the detailed headline.
BoJ Governor Ueda reiterates that firms becoming more active in raising prices and wages than before, according to Reuters.
Ex-BoJ executive Maeda said the BoJ may end the negative interest rate policy in January and keep raising short-term rates in stages, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 202bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 8bln net daily injection.
RBI Governor Das said India’s current account deficit remains eminently manageable, and they have bolstered FX reserves to deal with potential eventualities.
BoJ’s Ueda cautions that unwinding ultra-loose policy is a serious challenge, adding that the BoJ will move carefully on raising interest rates, via FT. On commitment to quantitative/qualitative easing until inflation target is attained says: “We are making progress towards achieving this same goal, but there’s still some distance to cover before we can scrap the forward guidance,”. In the scenario of an overshoot in inflation, believe we will be able to deal with it by lifting rates. Rate of growth of wages, around 2%, will need to continue and at a slightly higher rate. Yet to decide what order they would terminate the measures which are in place.
Japan lobby head urges BoJ to normalise policy to live with interest rates; the leader said the BoJ should unwind its easing programmes to live with interest rates although it may take a year to exit monetary stimulus.
DATA RECAP
Chinese CPI YY (Oct) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.0%); MM (Oct) -0.1% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.2%)
Chinese PPI YY (Oct) -2.6% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -2.5%)
END
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 57.17 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 479.98 PTS OR 1.49% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.2852 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2956 /Oil DOWN TO 75.74 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 80.07/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
SOFTBANK
this could be really troublesome for Softbank as they owned a huge chunk of WeWork
One Hit Wonder Masa Son Continues To Incinerate Capital, Loses Another $6.2 BIllion After WeWork Bankruptcy
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 03:05 PM
Several years ago, roughly around the time Masa Son’s SoftBank launched a truly unprecedented, historic capital misallocation campaign (which will one day be a case study in how to vaporize tens of billions), which was nothing more than a levered bet on easy monetary policy and central banks reflating markets, and also around the time we first asked if “SoftBank was the Bubble Era’s “Short Of The Century“, his earnings presentations were filled with jolly-if-ridiculous, unicorn-riddlged slides such as these pitching the financial conglomerates ill-fated foray into “AI”:
And speaking of Artificial Intelligence, where according to SoftBank every entrepreneur in world was somehow an key cog in the AI wheel…
… and where SoftBank saw itself as the “conductor” of the “AI revolution“…
… despite burning billions in shareholder capital, Masa Son still has nothing at all to show for it, not even some woke chat.
Instead, what Masa does have to show is a neverending series of investment disasters in companies that have either ended up worthless, or frauds, or worthless frauds – reminded the world how easily Wall Street is duped by confident-sounding one-hit-wonders in fancy suits.
Sure enough, overnight Japan’s VC dumpster fire conglomerate SoftBank racked up another huge loss in the July-September quarter as its “technology” investments, most notably WeWork, went (even more) sour.
SoftBank’s loss totaled 931 billion yen ($6.2 billion) in the last quarter; analysts had expected a net profit of ¥180.8bn, according to S&P Capital IQ. The group had made ¥3tn in net profit in the same quarter last year after selling a stake in Chinese ecommerce group Alibaba.
And while SoftBank has a “sprawling” investment portfolio and tends to have erratic financial results that fluctuate with market trends (one of Warren Buffett’s big laments too, which is why he uses operating income), lately the company’s cumulative investment performance has been nothing short of a disaster as the chart below shows.
And while SoftBank did everything in its power to turn attention to the recent IPO of ARM – which at least hasn’t imploded just yet – dedicating like 90% of all pages in its bevy of Q3 investor and earnings presentations, what the investing public was more interested in was how the company’s was impacted by its former “golden egg”, WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 this week amid turmoil in the U.S. commercial real estate market (and which was barely mention in the earnings presentation despite being responsible for the bulk of the Q3 loss).
Well, as hinted above, SoftBank’s flagship Vision Fund reported another loss with the drop in valuations at WeWork and other portfolio companies, on top of foreign exchange losses. The Vision Fund segment lost ¥258.9 billion ($1.7 billion) through the end of September, including declines in the value of holdings such as SenseTime Group, AutoStore and Symbotic. The Vision Fund unit has lost $53 billion in the last two years on startup missteps (The recent $4.9 billion initial public offering of chip unit Arm Holdings Plc has given SoftBank some capital to pursue deals).
And yes, the company finally wrote down the value of WeWork, where it holds a nearly 80% stake, and disclosed its cumulative losses from backing the office-sharing startup were $14.2 billion through September, though that figure may rise with WeWork’s bankruptcy filing this week.
The persistent losses, Bloomberg quips, have cast doubt over SoftBank’s claims that the worst is over for the Vision Fund, which funneled more than $140 billion into hundreds of money-losing startups worldwide. There’s little visibility into the performance of the majority of the Vision Fund’s unlisted portfolio companies.
“It’s hard to be optimistic, as there’s a bit of uncertainty over how things will develop in the near term,” said Tomoaki Kawasaki, a senior analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities Co. “But attention is now on how and whether SoftBank’s investments in AI-related firms will boost shareholder value and net asset value.”
So far the answer is a resounding no.
As an aside, how do you know if SoftBank had another shitty quarter? Answer: if Masa Son is not physically present at the investor conference. After good quarters, he loves being the one showing off the idiotic unicorn slides or, worse, golden goose (like this one from the Q3 slidedeck).
But today Masa was missing, and instead chief financial officer, Yoshimitsu Goto, was in charge of allaying investor worries, stressing in an online news conference that the company was still going strong overall, making cautious investment decisions and plans to keep growing.
Goto did the only thing he could, and leaned into the positives from the quarter. He said the value of Arm is now about three-fold its investment, from ¥3.3 trillion to ¥8.5 trillion. He also said there is more than $29 billion of assets in its portfolio that SoftBank may be able to cash in soon, calling out TikTok parent ByteDance Ltd., Fanatics Inc. and PayPay Corp.
“SoftBank is now in investment mode,” Goto said during the investor presentation. “We’re investing two to three times more than we did on a quarterly basis, compared with the same period a year ago.” Translation: the company has reverted back to cash incineration mode, “allocating capital” to grifters and smooth-talking frauds, and ensuring even more losses for softbank shareholders.
Still, SoftBank said it invested $1.5 billion in the September quarter and $1.8 billion a quarter earlier. That’s far below the tens of billions of dollars it invested quarterly in its heyday.
Goto also comically pointed out that by certain metrics, the Vision Fund “made money on investments in the latest quarter”, a figure it lists as ¥33.8 billion. Of course, like every pro forma metric, this too excludes a host of expenses at the Vision Fund, including changes in third-party interests, SG&A and an unspecified category of “other loss.”
Essentially, bullshit, and analysts agreed, repeating their skepticism, especially because SoftBank – formerly a stock repurchasing machine – hasn’t committed to buy back its own shares.
“It was a disappointing quarter. We didn’t expect them to take impairment charges for private investments and at a higher rate than the last quarter,” said Kirk Boodry, a SoftBank analyst at Astris Advisory in Tokyo, highlighting $2.9bn of writedowns in the private portfolio at the group’s flagship Vision Funds.
Doing what he does best, or rather worst, Masa Son has made a series of bets this year on autonomous technologies, particularly in transportation and logistics. They include investments in autonomous trucking startup Stack AV, an AI-using warehousing joint venture with Symbotic and a follow-on investment in Vision Fund portfolio firm and navigation software maker Mapbox. We fully expect all of them will be doughnuts in the near future.
As SoftBank invested billions of dollars in unprofitable startups beginning in 2017, it inflated valuations worldwide before they were punctured by China’s tech crackdown from 2020 and the US Federal Reserve’s rate hikes last year. In the past year, the company has been busier writing down its historical losses than investing.
At the end of September, SoftBank Group had approximately 110 portfolio companies, including Alibaba, T-Mobile US Inc. and Deutsche Telekom AG…
… but the pride and joy of the company is Arm Holdings, which recently IPOed, and – shocker – just gave a disappointing sales forecast on a prolonged smartphone slump and uncertainty regarding license agreements, sending the stock down in late trading to below its September IPO price of $51 per share.
3 CHINA
CHINA/
Foreign direct investment turns negative as they are pulling their money out of China
(zerohedge)
China’s Foreign Direct Investment Turns Negative For The First Time On Record
WEDNESDAY, NOV 08, 2023 – 06:00 PM
We got an early look that something is very broken in China’s capital flows back mid-September, when we first reported that contrary to the official PBOC forex data, a more in depth analysis of China’s fund flows reveals the biggest FX outflow since 2016 amid what we called was a “sudden surge in capital flight”, one which also kicked in just before bitcoin’s powerful thrust higher from $26K to $35K.
In retrospect, the reading wasn’t a fluke, and three months after we reported that “China’s Inward Foreign Direct Investment Falls To The Lowest Level On Record” the latest balance of payments data revealed that China recorded its first-ever quarterly decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), underscoring the capital outflow pressure we first flagged two months ago (and which was much more acute than the modest FX outflow signaled by the PBOC), and Beijing’s challenge in wooing overseas companies and capital in the wake of a “de-risking” move by Western governments.
As shown in the chart below, direct investment liabilities in the country’s balance of payments – a broad measure of FDI that includes foreign companies’ retained earnings in China – have been slowing over the last two years after hitting a near-peak value of more than $101 billion in the first quarter of 2022; since then the gauge weakened nearly every quarter and was a deficit of $11.8 billion during the July-September period, marking the first contraction since records started in 1998, which could be linked to the impact of “de-risking” by Western countries from China, as well as China’s interest rate disadvantage (the chart below shows a striking correlation between inbound FDI and China’s tumbling bond yields).
“It’s concerning to see net outflows where China’s doing its best at the moment to try and open — certainly the manufacturing sector — to new inflows,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Groep NV. “Maybe this is the beginning of a sign that people are just increasingly looking at alternatives to China for investment.”
“Some of the weakness in China’s inward FDI may be due to multinational companies repatriating earnings,” Goldman analyst Hui Shan wrote (full note available to pro subscribers) adding that “with interest rates in China ‘lower for longer’ while interest rates outside of China ‘higher for longer’, capital outflow pressures are likely to persist.”
According to Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, the unusually-large interest rate gap “has led firms to remit their retained earnings out of the country”.
Although he sees little evidence that foreign companies are, on aggregate, reducing their presence in China, “we do think that, over the medium-term at least, increasing geopolitical tensions will hamper China’s ability to attract FDI and instead favor emerging markets that are more friendly to the West.”
Driven by the FDI outflows, China’s basic balance – which encompasses current account and direct investment balances and are more stable than volatile portfolio investments – recorded a deficit of $3.2 billion, the second quarterly shortfall on record.
“Given these unfolding dynamics, which are poised to exert pressure on the RMB, we anticipate a sustained strategic response from China’s authorities,” Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC wrote, and while he is hardly alone in expecting a powerful response from Beijing to stop the bleeding before China is fully “Japanified” so far the ruling Communist Party has failed to materially stimulate its economy, the result of a staggering 300% in consolidated debt to GDP, which has largely tied Beijing’s hand for the past 4 years.
Xie expects China’s central bank to continue counter-cyclical interventions – including a strong bias in daily yuan fixings and managing yuan liquidity in the offshore market- to support the currency in the face of these headwinds.
Separately, onshore yuan trading against the dollar also hit record-low volume in October, highlighting authorities’ stepped-up efforts to curb yuan selling. The latest data showed that onshore volume of yuan trading against the dollar slumped to a record low of 1.85 trillion yuan ($254.05 billion) in October, a 73% drop from the August level.
The PBOC has been urging major banks to limit trading and dissuade clients to exchange the yuan for the dollar, sources have told Reuters. This happened after our September report that FX outflows from China had hit $75 billion, the highest since the country’s 2015 devaluation.
In an attempt to reverse the bleeding, the Chinese government has embarked on a big push in recent months to lure foreign investment back to the country. Bloomberg reported that on Wednesday, the Ministry of Commerce asked local governments to clear discriminatory policies facing foreign companies in a bid to stabilize investment confidence. It’s doubtful the move will have any impact on capital flows which are not driven by “discriminatory” policies and have everything to do with China’s dismal economy.
It cited the need to ensure subsidies for new energy vehicles are not limited to domestic brands as one example. In some industries, foreign firms wait longer and are subject to more rigorous reviewing process when applying for licenses.
In August, the internet regulator met with executives from dozens of international firms to ease concerns about new data rules. The government has also pledged to offer overseas companies better tax treatment and make it easier for them to obtain visas.
But Beijing’s pledges have rung hollow for some firms, with foreign business groups decrying “promise fatigue” amid skepticism about whether meaningful policy support is forthcoming. They also have incentive to repatriate earnings overseas because of the wide gap in interest rates between China and the US, which may be pushing them to seek higher returns elsewhere.
The FDI outflows are adding pressure on the onshore yuan, which has hit the weakest level since 2007 earlier this year. China’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield is trading at 191 basis points below that of comparable US Treasuries, versus an average premium of about 100 basis points over the past decade.
The lack of investment among global firms in China will have far reaching effects on the world’s second-largest economy, especially as it tries counter US curbs on access to advanced technology.
Aside from geopolitical risks, companies had also been pulling back on investment in China last year as the country rolled out pandemic restrictions. While those curbs have been removed, firms are still contending with other challenges from rising manufacturing costs in China and regulatory hurdles as Beijing scrutinizes activity at foreign corporations due to national security concerns.
“Some of the most damaging things have been the abrupt regulatory changes that have taken place,” said Carnell, pointing to this year’s anti-espionage campaign, which resulted in some firms having their offices raided by local authorities. “Once you damage the sort of perception of the business environment, it’s quite difficult to restore trust. I think it will take some time.”
While foreign companies make up less than 3% of the total number of corporations in China, they contribute to 40% of its trade, more than 16% of tax revenue and almost 10% of urban employment, state media has reported. They’ve also been key to China’s technological development, with foreign investment in the country’s high-tech industry growing at double-digit rates on average since 2012, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
“A decline in trade and investment links with advanced economies will be a particularly significant headwind for a catching up economy such as China, weighing on productivity growth and technological progress,” Kuijs said. And since youth unemployment – the single, most direct precursor to the one thing Beijing fears most of all, social unrest – is already at an all time high and will continue to rise (even if China will no longer report on what it is), the likelihood that Beijing will pursue some bazooka stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, only grows with every month that Beijing does not pursue such a critical, if temporary, measure to prevent catastrophe.
end
Pork prices plunge sending the China consumer price back into deflation
(zerohedge)
Pork Price Plunge Sends China Consumer Prices Back Into Deflation
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 09:05 AM
Deflationary pressures intensified in China in October as year-over-year Consumer Price inflation turned negative once again as food prices plunged (especially pork). Additionally, Producer Price deflation widened slightly in October in year-over-year terms due to lower prices of crude oil and nonferrous metals.
Specifically, consumer prices fell 0.2% YoY after hovering near zero in the previous two months (below expectations of 0.0%) and producer prices fell for a 13th straight month, dropping 2.6% (worse than the 2.5% YoY drop in September).
Source: Bloomberg
While non-food inflation was flat at +0.7% YoY in October, with increasing fuel costs offset by falling core goods and services prices, food inflation tumbled to -4.0% YoY in October from -3.2% YoY in September.
On major food items, inflation in pork prices fell to -30.1% YoY in October from -22.0% YoY in September, while inflation in fresh vegetables rose to -3.8% YoY in October from -6.4% YoY in September.
NBS commented that food prices fell sequentially on good weather conditions and moderated demand after the Golden week holiday in early October.
The price of pork in China, which is the world’s largest producer and consumer, has long followed a boom-and-bust cycle as smaller farmers pile into the market in response to rising demand. That leads to oversupply and triggers sharp price falls, forcing the same farmers to retreat.
Live hog futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have dropped about 15 per cent since the start of October, reflecting a sharp deterioration in expectations for nationwide pork prices. Wholesale pork prices in China are down more than 40 per cent from a year ago.
Pork prices began to rebound in July – partly in response to government-led buying – only to fall back again as large listed hog farmers, including Muyuan and New Hope, opted not to cut capacity despite broader weakness in demand.
“Part of the problem is that a lot of these big companies have on some level accepted the boom-and-bust cycle,” Darin Friedrichs, director of market research at Sitonia Consulting in Shanghai, said.
“And they think they’re better at playing it than their competitors.”
As The FT reports, China continues to experience deflation as other major economies continue to grapple with ‘high’ inflation…
Rob Carnell, economist at ING, disputed that China was suffering from deflation, which he defined as not just a decline in consumer prices but also in the prices of “real and financial assets and wages”.
“What China has right now is a low rate of underlying inflation, which reflects the fact that domestic demand is fairly weak,” he said.
“What we are seeing today is mainly the result of a supply excess, rather than a collapse in demand.”
Most notably, this report undermines a recent assessment by the PBOC that prices would rebound from the summer’s rough patch, prompting calls for more ‘measures’ to counter this deflationary pressure (because there’s nothing that citizens hate more than paying less for things).
While the latest inflation data could make markets more cautious about China’s growth recovery, it also fuels hopes for additional policy support, said Xiaojia Zhi, head of research at Credit Agricole CIB. This includes a further cut to the reserve requirement ratio, she said, a view also shared by other economists.
“Combating persistent disinflation amid weak demand remains a challenge for Chinese policymakers,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Ltd.
“An appropriate policy mix and more supportive measure are needed to prevent the economy from a downward drift in inflation expectations that could threaten business confidence and household spending.”
But, as Goldman Sachs said in an analyst note that China’s headline CPI should rise gradually in the coming months, although “persistent pork prices deflation is likely to slow the pace”.
PBOC to China’s citizens: squeal, little piggy!
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH/USA
Lavrov warns the West that they are pushing the Middle east region to the brink of a big war
(zerohedge)
Lavrov Says West Pushing Middle East Region To Brink Of A “Big War”
WEDNESDAY, NOV 08, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Russia at the start of a week wherein Israel’s military says it’s fighting “in the heart” of Gaza City has accused the West of pushing the Middle East towards major war. To the north of Israel, Hezbollah has continued rocket and artillery attacks. The US meanwhile has positioned no less than two carrier strike groups and a nuclear-powered submarine in regional waters, which officials say is a message to Iran.
The new provocative words by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov come as American media headlines have accused Russia of turning against Israel. “We can see the Anglo-Saxons literally pushing the Middle East to the brink of a big war,”he told an audience gathered for a Russian expo in Moscow.
He further accused the US and its allies of creating millions of new refugees and spawning further terrorism given its ‘unconditional’ support to Israel and its war on Gaza. He also spoke broadly of Washington’s military interventions in the Middle East and North Africa.
He reportedly also named Ukraine, Iraq, Libya and Syria as places where this reckless policy is on full display. “The outcome of this policy also includes a surge in terrorism and extremism, broken lives, shattered families and millions-strong refugee flows,” he added.
According to more of the top diplomat’s words as translated in TASS:
Lavrov also noted that the methods that the US and its satellites were using included attempts to sow chaos in various parts of the world, set countries and nations against one another, and raise ethnic and religious tensions.
“The West is used to solving its own problems at the expense of others and exploiting someone else’s resources,” he explained.
While officially Israel and Russia have enjoyed stable relations, which is surprising given the past decade of the Syrian war where the two are on opposite sides, the Kremlin has clearly been increasingly critical of Israel and its biggest backers.
Putin had said in an Oct. 30 televised address that “there is no justification for the terrible events taking place in Gaza now, where hundreds of thousands of innocent people are being killed indiscriminately, without having anywhere to flee or hide from the bombing.”
“When you see blood-stained children, dead children, the suffering of women and old people, when you see medics killed, of course, it makes you clench your fists as tears well in your eyes. There is no other way to put it,” he emphasized. Putin had also echoed Lavrov’s theme of the West sowing chaos and destabilization wherever it seeks to intervene, which has long been a Kremlin emphasis.
END
ISRAEL //HAMAS
(JERUSALEM POST//EDITORIAL)
Is Hamas losing the media battle to Israel in the Arab press? – opinion
The very rejection of the Hamas narrative by some in the Arab world is of great importance, as it shows that many are not oblivious to Hamas’s atrocities.
FORMER HAMAS head Khaled Mashaal poses during an interview with Reuters in Qatar, in 2020. During the current war, an Al-Arabiya anchor criticized him for harming Israeli civilians and asked him if he would apologize.(photo credit: NASEEM ZEITOON/REUTERS)
Most of the media in the Arab world is hostile toward Israel. A slew of condemnations, some with undeniably antisemitic overtones, have been flooding the print, electronic, and social media since October 7. Most ignore the Hamas killing and captivity of women, children, and elderly Israelis. Those who do admit that Hamas perpetrated atrocities, justify them by citing Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, its prolonged siege of Gaza, and its soldiers’ alleged deliberate killing of Palestinians.
Qatar’s widely popular Al Jazeera media outlet is a leading propagator of this vitriol, mobilized to spread lies in the service of Hamas. Hostile coverage and commentary are also prominent in countries that have signed peace agreements with Israel, such as Egypt and Jordan.
But there are other voices, too. Although these are drowned out by the predominantly negative media coverage, they must not be ignored because they point readers and listeners to the Hamas savagery and the damage it inflicts on the Palestinian cause. Clearly, the media campaign is no less important than the military campaign.
Is the Arab world condemning Hamas?
Harsh criticism of Hamas is particularly noticeable in the Gulf, especially in Saudi Arabia. Unlike Qatar’s Al Jazeera, Saudi competitor Al-Arabiya has clearly adopted a more moderate stance in its coverage of the war. Thus, for example, in an interview with former Hamas head, and still a leading figure, Khaled Mashaal, the channel’s anchor Rasha Nabil criticized him for harming Israeli civilians and asked him if he would apologize for these acts.
Smoke rises at northern Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Sderot in southern Israel, November 8, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)
Most of the articles critical of Hamas have been published in the London-based Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, considered one of the most influential Arabic-language newspapers. Particularly unusual and courageous, was an article by its former editor, Tariq Al-Homayed, who directly attacked the Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, urging him to demonstrate leadership and leave Gaza to prevent further bloodshed – just as Arafat left Beirut in 1982 – because he had turned life into hell for the enclave’s residents.
Newspapers published in Saudi Arabia carried similar columns, arguing that atrocities against innocent civilians on both sides cannot be considered a victory and accusing Hamas of handing a gift to the enemies of Islam by committing barbaric acts in the name of Allah. Pundits further argued that the Hamas operation was ineffective in terms of achieving the Palestinian goal of ending the occupation, making the Palestinian people its greatest losers. Hamas, some writers claimed, gave Israel the sword with which to take down the organization, while Iran was exploiting the Palestinian problem to the very last drop of Palestinian and Gazan blood.
OTHER COLUMNISTS and editorials accused Hamas of carrying out Iran’s agenda that seeks to undermine Israel’s normalization with the Arab world, rather than helping advance the goal of a return to the ‘67 borders and establishment of two states – Israel and Palestine. Peace should be the choice of the future, they opined.Advertisement
Saudi, Kuwaiti, Moroccan, and other Arabic-language writers have also propounded these views on social media, arguing that the abuse of civilians, especially women and children, violates the tenets of Islam and the Prophet’s teachings, as they appear in the Quran.
In Egypt, key institutions such as Al-Azhar University and most of the establishment newspapers, are rife with anti-Israel venom and praise for Hamas. Al-Azhar issued a very harsh statement saying that “the Zionist enemy has turned into a rabid wolf, obsessed with the passion of killing children, women, and innocent people, and taking pleasure in eating their flesh and drinking their blood.” Some journalists described the Hamas attack as the “Second October Victory”, a clear reference to Egypt’s October 1973 victory over Israel.
But in Egypt, too, other voices can be heard. For example, Egyptian journalist Ibrahim Eissa lambasted Hamas for prioritizing its own interests, building tunnels for its weapons and members rather than shelters for Gaza’s residents. He described the Hamas attack on Israel as “irresponsible” and its cruelty to Israeli civilians as an “act of terrorism”. He also condemned what he called the Hamas culture of death, which detracts from efforts to address the Palestinian problem. Others in Egyptian media accused Hamas of blatant terrorism and described its perpetrators as “thugs” and “savages”.
The Lebanese media also brought to light some interesting reactions. Although usually hostile to Israel, the media in Lebanon is now expressing concern over Hezbollah’s further involvement in the Israel-Hamas war and warning against its expected destructive consequences for Lebanon. This concern has prompted unequivocal statements, mainly from Christians, calling on Hezbollah to avoid embroiling Lebanon in the war.
While most columnists have avoided condemnation of Hamas, one writer said he was in favor of the Palestinian cause but against Hamas. Another opinion by a Lebanese commentator associated with Hezbollah, recently called on Mashaal to come and fight himself instead of sending others [i.e., Hezbollah] to do the work.
It is difficult to assess at this stage the impact of these voices in the vast array of Arab media. However, the very rejection of the Hamas narrative by some in the Arab world is of great importance, as it shows that many are not oblivious to Hamas’s atrocities. As more credible information emerges about the Hamas atrocities, these voices may be amplified. Conversely, a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza may strengthen the vitriolic attacks against Israel.
Prof. Elie Podeh is a member of Mitvim Insitutute’s Board of Directors and a lecturer in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University. Dr. Elad Giladi lectures in the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the University of Haifa.
END
CAIR organization has been operating in the USA for 30 years with impunity. They are bad news
(Paul Sperry)
Sperry: Hamas Ally CAIR Has Been Operating With Impunity Inside America For 30 Years
After Hamas massacred 1,400 men, women and children in Israel last month, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that the terror group “and its allies” could inspire attacks on Americans “here on our own soil.” He also told the Senate that the FBI is conducting “multiple, ongoing investigations” into people affiliated with the U.S.-designated terrorist group.
What Wray didn’t say is that the FBI has been investigating Hamas’ biggest ally in America for the past 30 years – without filing any charges. Launched in 1994 as a secret front organization to support Hamas, according to declassified FBI wiretap transcripts and FBI testimony, the Council on American-Islamic Relations has, in the decades since, become an accepted member of Washington’s lobbying community. The New York Times and other influential newspapers routinely describe CAIR as a “Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization.”
Although it has not repudiated its support for Hamas – which is committed to the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people – CAIR was enlisted by the Biden administration in May to take part in a White House initiative to fight antisemitism.
On Oct. 7, the day Hamas terrorists butchered 1,400 Jews, including 33 Americans – raping many and abducting some 240 others to Gaza from southern Israel – CAIR’s national executive director, Nihad Awad, delivered an anti-Israel message in Arabic which seemed to justify what Hamas did. Translated into English, it read: “All Arab peoples must go out on Sunday, Oct. 8 – and every day – in demonstrations in support of the Palestinians and in rejection of normalization with the occupier and the apartheid regime [Israel].”
On Saturday afternoon, CAIR helped rally more than 100,000 Muslims in D.C. to instead condemn Israel for supposedly carrying out “genocide” in Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 attacks. Multiple speakers called for the destruction of Israel – and, by implication, the Jewish people there – by demanding Palestinians take all the lands “from the [Jordan] river to the [Mediterranean] sea.”
Awad was front and center, delivering a fiery speech bashing Israel and President Biden for not calling on Israel to stop bombing Hamas targets inside Gaza, which he called “genocidal attacks.” He threatened to hurt Biden at the ballot box in 2024 if he does not urge a ceasefire.
“We have discovered the language that President Biden understands: ‘No ceasefire, no votes,’” Awad bellowed to the crowd, which erupted into a chant repeating his words. “No votes in Michigan, no votes anywhere if you do not call for a ceasefire now. He then led a chant: “Free, free Palestine!”
Also, Awad promised to provide legal support to Muslim Americans who protest in support of Palestine. “We are with you,” he said. “The people of Gaza rely on your voices and activism.”
Protesters later marched on the White House, where they defaced the white brick gate of the Executive Mansion with red paint symbolizing the blood of Gazans who have died from the Israeli army’s counterstrikes. Awad is on record declaring his support for Hamas. At Barry University in 1994, for example, he said: “I am in support of the Hamas movement.”
CAIR did not respond to requests for comment, but without addressing specifics, it has previously argued it “is not a ‘front group for Hamas.’” The FBI and White House declined to comment.
While CAIR is now a mainstay of American politics – headquartered just three blocks from the U.S. Capitol, with 35 offices across the country – its history reveals its close connections with terror groups such as Hamas, as detailed in the 2009 book this reporter co-authored with counterterrorism expert P. David Gaubatz, “Muslim Mafia: Inside the Secret Underworld that’s Conspiring to Islamize America.”
The story began in the Palestinian refugee camp in Jordan in the 1960s, where Awad and a co-founder of CAIR, Omar Ahmad, were born. Both men eventually came to the United States for university studies. By 1992, Awad was a key member of the so-called Palestine Committee in America, which helped finance Hamas. According to a 1992 letter from the Gaza Strip, Hamas asked the Committee for money to buy “weapons, weapons, our brothers.” The letter continued: “The meaning of killing a Jew for the liberation of Palestine cannot be compared to any jihad on earth.”
Around the same time, the FBI was eavesdropping on several Hamas leaders in connection with terrorist activities, which produced tapes documenting the incarnation of CAIR in 1993. At a secret meeting that October, Omar Ahmad called to order the Hamas summit in Philly at a Courtyard by Marriott hotel in Philadelphia to discuss the formation of a new front organization to support their “movement” in America. Awad also attended the meeting.
According to court testimony by FBI agent Lara Burns, who runs a major counterterrorism program for the bureau, Ahmad, Awad, and the other leaders who gathered there hatched a scheme to disguise overseas payments to Hamas terrorists and their families as charity. FBI wiretaps also recorded them stating the need to deceive Americans about the true aims of their planned American front group as Hamas launched a campaign of terror attacks on Israel known as the “Intifada.”
They compared the deception to the “head fake” in basketball, where a shooter tricks an opponent guarding him into moving in a different direction. The group, according to the wiretap transcripts, envisioned an “alternative” organization whose pro-Palestinian stripes were “not very conspicuous.” Burns testified CAIR was what they had in mind. During the talks, they tried to mislead any authorities who might be listening in by referring to Hamas as “Samah” – Hamas spelled backward.
Ahmad would co-found CAIR in 1994, hiring Awad as executive director that same year. Both men have expressed hatred toward Israel and resentment toward their adopted country for helping fund and arm the Jewish nation.
Burns testified during the 2008 terrorism trial of a charitable front for Hamas known as the Holy Land Foundation. It was the largest terror funding case in U.S. history. As part of the court filings, the Justice Department included CAIR on a list of co-conspirators underwriting Hamas terrorism – though CAIR and its founders were never indicted in the case. The HLF, busted up as the main fundraising arm of Hamas in America, commingled funds, assets, and personnel with CAIR, according to tax records and court documents.
“CAIR has been identified by the government as a participant in an ongoing and ultimately unlawful conspiracy to support a designated terrorist organization [Hamas] – a conspiracy from which CAIR never withdrew,” said former Assistant U.S. Attorney James Jacks, who was the lead prosecutor in the case.
A federal judge agreed. “The government has produced ample evidence to establish the associations of CAIR with Hamas,” then-U.S. District Judge Jorge Solis wrote in a July 2009 ruling.
A number of FBI counterterrorism agents were frustrated that CAIR’s national office and executives were never charged in the conspiracy, although the founder of CAIR’s Texas chapter was sentenced to prison. They said politics intervened. After 9/11, they said FBI headquarters viewed CAIR as a link to the Muslim community through which they might obtain tips about terror threats to the homeland. Brass even invited CAIR officials up to the executive suites located on the 7th floor of the Hoover building to discuss outreach policy.
“We said, ‘These are the bad guys, this is Hamas. What are you doing?’” former FBI Special Agent John Guandolo said, describing how he and other agents protested the special treatment afforded CAIR.
After CAIR was named an unindicted co-conspirator in the HLF’s criminal scheme to funnel more than $12 million to Hamas terrorists, the FBI finally disengaged from the group. The agency stopped conducting formal outreach with CAIR’s national office until, it said, it could resolve issues with Awad and other worrisome leaders.
“Until we can resolve whether there continues to be a connection between CAIR or its executives and Hamas, the FBI does not view CAIR as an appropriate liaison partner,” then-Assistant FBI director Richard Powers said in a 2009 letter to the Senate.
But some investigators say the FBI should have shut down the group, not just the outreach program, issuing search warrants and conducting more intrusive surveillance, which they say would have allowed the government to run the Hamas front out of business.
“CAIR is the leading Hamas entity inside the United States, and the FBI has taken no action to prosecute them,” said Guandolo, who helped lead several major counterterrorism probes at the Washington field office after 9/11. He explained that “politically correct” FBI leadership is hesitant to go after a minority religious group and is overly sensitive to charges of “Islamophobia” often leveled by CAIR against its critics.
The FBI’s reluctance to roll up the Hamas front has pushed private investigators to take matters into their own hands. In 2008, a counterterrorism specialist led a team of investigators in a daring undercover operation of CAIR that included infiltrating its national headquarters located on New Jersey Avenue in Washington, D.C., near the Capitol Building. Working as interns, the investigators, who posed as recent converts to Islam wearing traditional Muslim garb, secretly video-recorded conversations with CAIR officials. During the six-month operation, they also intercepted more than 12,000 pages of documents CAIR intended to shred as trash. The evidence, which was turned over to the FBI, is documented in “Muslim Mafia,” which also features an appendix with several key internal CAIR documents reprinted.
Among other things, the book revealed that CAIR employed violent Islamic terrorists, and then supported the terrorists behind the scenes even after they were convicted. It also uncovered an influence operation against members of key homeland security committees in Congress that included planting CAIR operatives in congressional offices. Internal CAIR documents laid out a plan to elect dozens of pro-Hamas Muslims to Congress. CAIR even started holding Muslim prayer sessions each Friday in the basement of the Capitol.
“Muslim Mafia” also traced the deeper roots of Hamas back to the secretive Muslim Brotherhood, the pro-jihad group founded in Egypt that built a sophisticated network of Islamic nonprofits inside the U.S. several decades ago. The book documented how Muslim Brotherhood leaders wrote a secret blueprint for “destroying [America] from within … so that it is eliminated and Allah’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.” FBI investigators discovered the manifesto stashed in a sub-basement of a Brotherhood leader’s home in Annandale, Va., after raiding his residence as part of a terrorism probe.
Several alarmed Republican members of Congress held a press conference about the book’s findings, warning a Hamas terror front group was infiltrating Congress.
Besides exposing Hamas’ political arm in America, the book exposed the inner workings of the broader anti-Israel lobby, which includes several leftwing groups aligned with CAIR. This lobby is now revealing itself in the wake of Israel’s own 9/11.
“The seeds for 9/11 were planted in 1948,” according to a draft of a “Proposed Muslim Platform” found at CAIR’s headquarters. “A resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs to be based on recognizing and correcting the harm that was done to the Palestinians since 1948,” when the United Nations partitioned land for Israel.
Guandolo said Hamas proved just how dangerous it is on Oct. 7. He warned that the terrorist group has already penetrated American society, and CAIR is the tip of the spear.
“Currently, CAIR is directing efforts at the ground level across the United States with organizations known for violent extremism,” he added in a recent interview with RealClearInvestigations. “Again, the FBI is doing nothing to adhere to their oaths of office and protect the American people
END
How did these journalists get to the scene so fast? Did they have advance warning and did nothing to notify?
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel demands action after journalists reportedly joined Hamas massacre
AP responded: “AP had no advance knowledge of the October 7 attack,” said spokesperson Nicole Meyer.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, WALLA!NOVEMBER 9, 2023 11:04Updated: NOVEMBER 9, 2023 14:40
Israeli security gather near a rifle at the site of a battle following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in Sderot(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
The media watchdog HonestReporting published an investigative report late on Wednesday showing that journalists from leading news outlets, including The New York Times, AP, Reuters and CNN, joined Hamas terrorists from the Gaza Strip on October 7 to document the horrific events with their cameras.
The organization, which works to expose anti-Israel bias in the foreign press, raised weighty ethical questions in the investigation regarding the presence of those photographers alongside Hamas terrorists.
Among other things, it begs the question of whether the photographers were aware in advance of the intent to carry out the massacre and how they arrived on the scene so quickly. Did Hamas allow them to be there? Did these news reporters have approval to enter Israel alongside the terrorists? Did the photographers inform their editors that they were accompanying the terrorists as they carried out the attacks against the Israelis?
CNN freelance journalist broadcasted images of Hamas infiltration
According to the investigation, the photographers documented up close the kidnapping of civilians and soldiers, an attack on a tank, and the lynching of an IDF soldier. In addition, a CNN freelance journalist broadcasted images of the burning tank and accompanied the terrorists into Gaza.
The CNN logo stands outside the venue of the second Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidates debate, in the Fox Theater in Detroit, Michigan, US, July 30, 2019. (credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
AP responded: “AP had no advance knowledge of the October 7 attack,” said spokesperson Nicole Meyer. “AP’s role is to capture news and images from events happening worldwide, at any point, even if they are terrible and involve victims. Advertisement
“AP uses photos from freelancers from all over, including Gaza,” she said.
Jerusalem Press Club raises issue of ‘complicity’ in Hamas’s crimes
The Jerusalem Press Club stated, “If indeed representatives of news agencies and significant networks were aware in advance of the expected massacre, it raises initial concerns about complicity in a crime or failure to prevent the murder.
“The investigation raises difficult ethical questions, not only about the behavior of those on the ground but also of the network and news agency executives,” the statement continued. “The question is whether they knew about Hamas’s intent and still gave it their tacit approval.
“We urge them to conduct a thorough investigation to examine what they knew before the massacre and whether a different course of action on their part could have saved the lives of many innocent people. We demand that they publish their findings as soon as possible, just as they disseminated the reports and horrific images.”
The National Public Diplomacy Directorate in the Prime Minister’s Office stated that it “views with utmost gravity that photojournalists working with international media joined in covering the brutal acts of murder perpetrated by Hamas terrorists on October 7th in the communities adjacent to the Gaza Strip.
“These journalists were accomplices in crimes against humanity; their actions were contrary to professional ethics,” the directorate said. “Overnight the GPO issued an urgent letter to the bureau chiefs of the media organizations that employed these photographers and sought clarifications on the matter. The National Public Diplomacy Directorate demands that immediate action be taken.”
Communications Minister Dr. Shlomo Karhi contacted CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, and the AP on Thursday in light of the report, saying “The gravity of the situation demands a swift and thorough response. It is now a time for individuals, journalists, institutions, unions, and organizations around the world to make a clear choice. We must decide whether we stand on the side of life and good or on the side of depraved terrorism, inhumanity, and evil.”
Reuters denies it had prior knowledge of Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel
International news organization Reuters denied on Thursday any suggestion it had prior knowledge of the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians and soldiers, in a statement responding to the report by HonestReporting.
“We are aware of a report by HonestReporting and accusations made against two freelance photographers who contributed to Reuters coverage of the October attack,” Reuters said.
“Reuters categorically denies that it had prior knowledge of the attack or that we embedded journalists with Hamas on October 7,” the news agency said.
“Reuters acquired photographs from two Gaza-based freelance photographers who were at the border on the morning of October 7, with whom it did not have a prior relationship. The photographs published by Reuters were taken two hours after Hamas fired rockets across southern Israel and more than 45 minutes after Israel said gunmen had crossed the border.
“Reuters staff journalists were not on the ground at the locations referred to in the HonestReporting article.”
end
Israel to begin four-hour pauses in northern Gaza – White House
“We understand that Israel will begin to implement four-hour pauses in areas of northern Gaza” with an announcement to come three hours in advance,” national security spokesperson John Kirby said.
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 9, 2023 17:48Updated: NOVEMBER 9, 2023 18:36
Palestinians at the rubble of a destroyed building after an Israeli airstrike in the central Gaza Strip, on November 5, 2023(photo credit: ATIA MOHAMMED/FLASH90)
Israel will begin four-hour pauses in northern Gaza starting on Thursday to allow people to flee hostilities, the White House said in what it called a step in the right direction.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said the pauses emerged out of discussions between US and Israeli officials in recent days, including talks US President Joe Biden had with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Kirby said the pauses would allow people to get out of harm’s way and for deliveries of humanitarian aid and could be used as a way to get hostages out.
“We’ve been told by the Israelis that there will be no military operations in these areas over the duration of the pause, and that this process is starting today,” Kirby said.
Four-hour pauses with three-hour notice
“We understand that Israel will begin to implement four-hour pauses in areas of northern Gaza” with an announcement to come three hours in advance,” he said.
ARMORED IDF VEHICLES are seen during their ground operations at a location inside Gaza, in an image released on Wednesday by the IDF. (credit: REUTERS)
He called the news a step in the right direction.
“We think these are significant first steps here and obviously we want to see them continued for as long as they are needed,” he added.Advertisement
Kirby also said a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas militants is not in order because it would help Hamas and “legitimize what they did on Oct. 7 and we simply are not going to stand for that at this time.”
On Thursday, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) stated that there will not be ceasefire without Hamas first returning the hostages it has taken
“Israel allows safe passage from the northern strip to its south, as 50,000 Gazans did just yesterday,” the PMO stated. “Once again, we call on the civilian population in Gaza to move south.”
END
No hostage release?
Israel Agrees To 4-hour Daily Humanitarian Pauses In Gaza: White House
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 11:15 AM
Israel has finally and belatedly caved to White House and external international pressure, it appears, as Biden officials have announced Thursday Israel has agreed to implement daily humanitarian pauses.
“The White House says Israel has agreed to put in place four-hour daily humanitarian pauses in its assault on Hamas in northern Gaza,” theAssociated Press reports in a breaking story.
Washington has refused to back a ceasefire, but starting last week Secretary of State Blinken began pressing harder for ‘pauses’, to allow more aid into the Strip, but also to allow Palestinian civilians safe exit from the northern half of Gaza, which has remained under heavy aerial bombardment, but also ongoing ground invasion, as tanks have also reportedly reached the center of Gaza City.
“The Biden administration says it has secured a second pathway for civilians to flee fighting. President Joe Biden had asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to institute the daily pauses during a Monday call,” the AP writes.
“U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the first humanitarian pause would be announced Thursday and that the Israelis had committed to announcing each four-hour window at least three hours in advance,” according to further details.
The Pentagon’s military build-up in the region and in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the presence of carriers, warships, and even a nuclear-powered submarine has continues with an eye on Iran.
Overnight, President Biden ordered a second round of major airstrikes on ‘Iran-linked’ militant positions in Eastern Syria in retaliation for what are now near daily drone and rocket attacks on US positions, also in Iraq.
As we detailed earlier, the White House is facing immense pressure both domestically and on an international scale given its refusal to back a full ceasefire. The issue has even begun to fracture the administration from within, given now widely circulating ‘dissent memos’ critiquing and denouncing Biden’s policies.
As the Gaza death toll soars past 10,500 – and now with daily horrific images from Gaza hospitals showing dead and wounded babies, toddlers, woman, and other civilians – pressure is also mounting at the United Nations. The US has come under blistering criticism from other countries for last week vetoing a resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza, among the few nations in the world to register a “no” vote.
end
Middle East Policy//uSA
Amazing: no outcry on the American hostages???
(zerohedge)
White House Aides “Simply Cannot Stomach” Biden’s Israel Policy, Dissent Memos Leak, Revolt At State Dept
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 09:40 AM
A revolt is brewing within the Biden administration over how the White House is handling the Israel-Gaza war, as the civilian death toll and mass Palestinian displacement soars, and as Biden’s top officials continue to say “no conditions” have been placed on how Israel uses US-supplied weapons. Pressure from the press pool is also piling on, with near daily spats and antagonistic back-and-forth exchanges on display in the State Department and White House briefing rooms.
This week there have emerged reports of scathing ‘dissent memos’ criticizing White House Israel policy being circulated, collecting many hundreds of signatures chiefly from among State Department and USAID staff. A primary theme of the pushback and pressure is that President Biden must change course on the Gaza crisis.
First, on Monday Politico obtained and published portions of a memo issued by State Department personnel giving a blistering critique which according to the publication argued that “among other things, the U.S. should be willing to publicly criticize the Israelis.”
It was issued after the Biden’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, repeatedly made clear that the US does not back a ceasefire, but is only sheepishly calling for brief humanitarian ‘pauses’. Politico points out the memo represents a “growing loss of confidence” among Biden’s corps of diplomats:
The message suggests a growing loss of confidence among U.S. diplomats in President Joe Biden’s approach to the Middle East crisis. It reflects the sentiments of many U.S. diplomats, especially at mid-level and lower ranks, according to conversations with several department staffers as well as other reports. If such internal disagreements intensify, it could make it harder for the Biden administration to craft policy toward the region.
The memo has two key requests: that the U.S. support a ceasefire, and that it balance its private and public messaging toward Israel, including airing criticisms of Israeli military tactics and treatment of Palestinians that the U.S. generally prefers to keep private.
The memo, marked “sensitive but unclassified’ was sure to leak, and that was likely the point. It bluntly underscores that Biden’s policy is hurting America’s standing in the world as much of global opinion has been appalled at the Gaza death toll which this week surpassed 10,500.
The memo sates that the gap between Biden officials’ private and public messaging “contributes to regional public perceptions that the United States is a biased and dishonest actor, which at best does not advance, and at worst harms, U.S. interests worldwide.”
“We must publicly criticize Israel’s violations of international norms such as failure to limit offensive operations to legitimate military targets,” the dissent memo continues. “When Israel supports settler violence and illegal land seizures or employs excessive use of force against Palestinians, we must communicate publicly that this goes against our American values so that Israel does not act with impunity.”
When the administration has lost CNN…
Next, hundreds of staffers at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have issued a letter calling for an “immediate ceasefire” while also criticizing the White House’s failure to hold Israel accountable in any way for “numerous violations of international law” and the huge numbers of Gaza civilian casualties, especially among women and children.
The USAID staffers are also outraged that the US last month vetoed a UN Security Council resolution which sought a pause in fighting in order to allow humanitarian aid to get through to the Gaza Strip. The USAID dissent memo, which also went public by the middle of this week, includes the following:
“We believe that further catastrophic loss of human life can only be avoided if the United States Government calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of Israeli hostages, and the restoration of water, food, fuel, and electricity to the people of Gaza by the State of Israel,” it reads.
“In the longer term, we call on the United States Government to join the international community and human rights organizations in holding all parties, including the State of Israel, to international law, which includes ending Israel’s illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories and settlements on occupied land.”
Publicly, President Biden is coming under most pressure from a tiny handful of outspoken Progressive Democrats in Congress (the Squad), but the more significant pushback appears to be coming from within his own administration. Increasingly, bold public statements from Israeli leaders themselves have introduced huge, obvious contradictions between the White House’s rhetoric and that of Netanyahu’s government, which is much more open about its intent in Gaza…
On Thursday, CNN issued a new investigative report quoting senior White House staffers as saying they increasingly “cannot stomach” defending Biden’s policy anymore. The report also describes “great moral anxiety” – in the words of one unnamed senior admin official, who is quoted in the following:
One month into the Israel-Hamas war, some senior officials privately say there are aspects of Israel’s military operations they simply cannot stomach defending; calls for the US to back a ceasefire are growing among government employees; and others are distraught by the incessant images of Palestinian civilians being killed by Israeli airstrikes, multiple sources told CNN.
“It has created great moral anxiety,” said one senior administration official. “But no one can say it because we all work at the pleasure of the president and he’s all in.”
More high level resignations could come as a result, which will certainly only increase the pressure on Biden’s team while headed into an election year, already has his poll numbers are at record lows.
CNN notes that a full-on revolt is underway in the State Department: “Some of the fiercest backlash has come from inside the State Department, including an official who publicly resigned from the agency last month over the Biden’s administration’s approach to the conflict,” the report says. “Elsewhere in the administration, officials are quietly fuming as the civilian death toll mounts.”
The Democratic base too, could increasingly shift to become more sympathetic to the unrelenting denunciations issued by the Squad. Progressives and protesters are calling Biden “genocide Joe” – as CNN describes further:
Reminders of emotions running high have not been hard to come by. The president was confronted by a protester calling for a ceasefire at a private fundraiser last week; pro-Palestinian protests have been a daily occurrence near the White House compound; and this week, one of the entrances near the West Wing was covered in bright-red handprints – meant to mimic blood – and words like “genocide Joe.”
The internal administration dissent is becoming so visible that White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was forced to address it in a press briefing on Tuesday. He sought, and failed, to calm anxiety by saying, “the president understands that there’s strong emotions and feelings here, all around, all across the board – and here inside the administration and the federal government, that’s certainly the case as well.”
These tensions are likely only to grow given there are no signs Israel’s military is ready to exercise any restraint, given Israeli leadership likely perceives that Washington has given it a ‘blank check’ (akin to Ukraine). Already Israel receives at least $3.8 billion in military aid annually, and Biden is now seeking some $14 billion more in assistance this year.
In response to the rise in antisemitism and pro-Palestinian protests at universities and in liberal-leaning cities, American Jews are panic-buying firearms as a precautionary measure.
Vicky Furer, a 48-year-old educator from South Florida, told Bloomberg that she recently joined members of her synagogue for a shooting lesson at a firing range in Pompano Beach – just north of Fort Lauderdale.
“It’s scary, holding this thing,” Furer said, “thinking of how I will ever be able to shoot at someone.”
Across South Florida, as well as across the US, Jewish folks have historically leaned left and pro-gun control. However, that appears to be changing following the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the rise in antisemitism and pro-Palestinian spreading across the US.
The latest data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) shows that unadjusted criminal background checks in Florida were 124,000 in October, up 30% from September. Background checks serve as a proxy for gun sales because there is no national database tracking firearm purchases.
Outside of Israel, Florida has one of the largest concentrations of Jewish people, upwards of 740,000. In predominantly Jewish neighborhoods, people are arming up:
“This is the first time I really feel unsafe in the US,” Michele Lazarow, a Hallandale Beach city commissioner, told Sun Sentinel. He added: “Maybe it’ll finally be when I get a firearm.”
Rabbis, firearms instructors, and gun shops have told Bloomberg that gun buying among Jewish folks has soared in recent weeks because they fear a Hamas attack and or see the rising tide of antisemitism nationwide.
On Tuesday, a 69-year-old man demonstrating in support of Israel died after sustaining a head injury during a fight with a pro-Palestinian protester in Los Angeles.
Also, Jewish people are watching the surge in antisemitism at liberal colleges and are shocked.
Left-leaning Jewish folks who never thought they would own a gun are now realizing in Biden’s America – that the need for self-defense against crazies is crucial for survival.
END
SYRIA/USA
USA makes a feeble attack in Eastern Syria
(zerohedge)
US Attacks Eastern Syria In 2nd Round Of Major Strikes On ‘Iran-Linked’ Militants
WEDNESDAY, NOV 08, 2023 – 08:59 PM
Update(1930ET): The US has just confirmed it conducted a second round of major airstrikes in Syria since the Gaza war began, which the Pentagon has described as retaliation for a recent series of attacks by “Iran-linked” militias against US troops in the country’s east:
U.S. fighter jets conducted “a self-defense strike” at a weapons storage facility in Syria that was being used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday.
The strike in eastern Syria was carried out at President Joe Biden’s direction, Austin said in a statement.
“This precision self-defense strike is a response to a series of attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by IRGC-Quds Force affiliates,” Austin said.
At this point the Pentagon has cited that 46 US service members have been injured over the past month of attacks inside Iraq and Syria, most with ‘traumatic brain injuries’.
* * *
Update(11:45ET): Yemen’s Houthis have claimed they’ve successfully shot down a US MQ-9 reaper drone over “territorial waters” off the Yemeni coast. According to a machine translation of a Houthi army statement:
Our air defenses were able to shoot down an American MQ9 aircraft while it was carrying out hostile, monitoring and spying activities in the airspace of Yemeni territorial waters and within the framework of American military support for the Israeli entity.
If confirmed as accurate, this could draw the United States deeper into what could develop into a broader regional conflict. The Pentagon has had aerial assets flying over Gaza, and the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Further US warships have been seeking to intercept ratcheting drone and missile attacks from the Houthis, with one such intercept having already occurred in the opening weeks of the Gaza war, now having reached one month.
There’s as yet been no Pentagon or US official confirmation of the alleged MQ-9 drone shootdown.
However, footage purporting to show the drone shootdown has been released…
* * *
President Biden in a phone call this week urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to implement a three-day pause in fighting. This was revealed by multiple sources to Axios Tuesday, and Biden’s request appears to have been rejected, given the call took place Monday and Israel has since reaffirmed there will be no truce until the hostages held by Hamas are released.
“According to a proposal that is being discussed between the U.S., Israel and Qatar, Hamas would release 10-15 hostages and use the three-day pause to verify the identities of all the hostages and deliver a list of names of the people it is holding, the U.S. official said,” according to the report.
But Netanyahu on Tuesday gave a speech declaring that his forces were “reaching deeper than Hamas ever imagined” a hailed the killing of thousands of Hamas terrorists and commanders. “There will not be a ceasefire without the return of our kidnapped,” he emphasized in a message “to our enemies and our friends alike.”
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had at the same time declared that the IDF is fighting “in the heart” of Gaza City and is “tightening the noose” around Hamas.
Concerning the Monday phone call, Axios revealed further, “The two U.S. and Israeli officials said Netanyahu told Biden he doesn’t trust Hamas’ intentions and doesn’t believe they are ready to agree to a deal regarding the hostages.”
The Israeli leader “also said that Israel could lose the current international support it has for the operation if the fighting stops for three days, the officials said.” Netanyahu further voiced to Biden that in 2014 Hamas took advantage of a humanitarian pause to kidnap an Israeli soldier and kidnap others.
The official White House call readout from the Biden-Netanyahu meeting only said the two leaders “discussed ongoing efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas” – but without offering further details.
Of the estimated total 240 captives, Hamas has so far released fourhostages, reportedly in large part through Qatar’s mediation, but lately US officials have said progress has stalled since then.
Israel says it was able to free a female soldier during the initial phase of ground operations, while reports have said that in some cases deceased hostages have been found, possibly due to airstrikes.
Hamas has meanwhile continued to publish short videos of what the group says are successful ambush attacks on tanks and armored convoy units, also showing close urban combat, but typically with IDF ground troops nowhere to be seen. The IDF appears to be advancing into Gaza City purely with armor, and presumably with ground infantry troops staying in the rear until a city area is initially prepared through tank, artillery, and airstrikes.
On Wednesday Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US stands by Israel in rejecting calls for a full ceasefire. “Israel has repeatedly told us that there is no going back to October (7) before the barbaric attacks by Hamas — we fully agree,” he said. He then said of G7 counterparts, “We all agreed humanitarian pauses would advance key objectives.”
UKRAINE VS RUSSIA/
end
6,VACCINE/COVID ISSUES & GLOBAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
“Enough Is Enough”: Widower Sues Hospital for Withholding Ivermectin, Claims Wrongful Death
WEDNESDAY, NOV 08, 2023 – 11:20 PM
The family of a woman who died after a hospital refused to treat her with ivermectin for Covid-19 has filed a wrongful death lawsuit.
Scott Mantel, whose wife Deborah Bucko died at Mount Sinai Hospital on May 16, 2021 from complications related to Covid-19, filed the lawsuit in September. He contends that the hospital refused to administer ivermectin, which was prescribed by her doctor. Mantell claims that the refusal contributed to her death.
According to the lawsuit, Mantel “researched possible alternative treatments, and he read several news stories about patients with severe COVID-19 illness who had been treated successfully with ivermectin.”
Despite her condition initially improving after she received the drug under a court order, the hospital’s subsequent decision to stop the treatment led to a rapid decline in her health, according to the complaint.
“While she was being treated with the ivermectin and immediately afterwards, Ms. Bucko’s respiratory and cardiovascular functions showed significant improvement and she required significantly less oxygen, vasopressors, and ventilator support, which was clearly demonstrated in her medical records,” reads the suit. “As a result of the ivermectin, Ms. Bucko was on her way to recovery.“
Mantel’s lawsuit seeks not only compensation for himself and his two children but also punitive damages against the hospital. The claim is that Mount Sinai’s withholding of ivermectin after it had been prescribed constituted a breach of standard medical care, the Epoch Times reports.
Mantel’s lawyer, Steven Warshawsky, says that the hospital’s refusal to comply with the court-ordered treatment, particularly given the patient’s initial improvement, was against the patient’s best interests and the integrity of the doctor-patient relationship.
“Early on during the pandemic there were a lot of early legal actions seeking court orders requiring hospitals and doctors to treat patients with ivermectin, but here you have a situation where orders were issued and the hospital did not fully comply with them despite [the] patient showing progress of ivermectin,” he said.
The controversy around the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19 has been a contentious issue within the medical community. Despite this, a lawyer for the FDA confirmed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in August 2023 that doctors are legally permitted to prescribe ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.
“FDA explicitly recognizes that doctors do have the authority to prescribe ivermectin to treat COVID,” said Ashley Cheung Honold, a Department of Justice lawyer representing the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in a statement to the US Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit.
Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, who supports the use of ivermectin, has criticized pharmacists who refuse to fill such prescriptions, arguing that this oversteps their authority and impacts patient care.
“This needs to come to an end. In telling my patients what medicines they can and cannot have access to, we effectively have a large group of pharmacists practicing medicine without a license,” Bowden said on Friday. “They have no accountability for this yet they are allowed to dictate patient care.”
“I see it every single day. Enough is enough,” she continued.
The outcome of Mantel’s lawsuit could have implications for future cases where there is a conflict between hospital policies and the treatments doctors wish to prescribe. Warshawsky hopes that a favorable ruling will set a precedent affirming the right of physicians to administer treatments they deem necessary, without undue interference from hospital administration. The hospital is expected to respond to the motion later this month.
“I am hoping to not only get a good result for Deborah and her family but certainly to lay a precedent which is that physicians cannot withhold life-saving treatments from their patients, not only in the case of ivermectin, but also with other medications that might not be standard protocol for hospitals,” said Warshowsky.
happened Bella? It got too hot for you? Did not like the stabbings across Europe, the rape of European girls, blonds like you? You let medieval 6th century islamists among you, lit your funeral pyre
WHO Planning 10 Years of Pandemics to Usher In ‘Agenda 2030’READ MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
JUST IN: Republicans Cruise To Victory In Several Kentucky RacesRead more…UPDATE: Government Doubles Down On Inhumane Treatment Of Conservative Political PrisonerRead more…Democrat Dan McCaffery wins open seat on Pennsylvania Supreme CourtRead more…Virginia Democrats win full control of the state legislature, AP reportsRead more…WATCH: Tucker Drops New Episode!Read more…CNN Election Day Poll Finds ‘Enthusiasm Advantage’ For Republicans Ahead Of 2024Read more…Elizabeth Warren’s Claim About Rising ‘Islamophobia’ Blows Up in Her FaceRead more…BREAKING: Closely Watched Kentucky Gubernatorial Race Has Been CalledRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
Israel-Hamas Conflict Threatens EU Energy Security
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, killing hundreds of civilians a day and threatening critical infrastructures of all sorts in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip, has reached a new turn, with the full encirclement of Gaza City by Israel’s army. Yet, the implications of this asymmetric war are largely misunderstood. Day by day, the energy picture of the Middle East becomes murkier, possibly upending global energy security in ways markets are unable to predict, starting with the wobbly Egyptian energy system. Too focused on decrypting daily volatility on the TTF or Henry Hub after 21 months since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, analysts are neglecting the short and long-term political and geopolitical consequences of market imbalances amid a still-unfolding global energy crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pause Israel’s army assault on Gaza and allow much-needed humanitarian assistance is a stark reminder that Netanyahu and his War Cabinet are trying to apply maximum pressure on Hamas, despite disastrous consequences for civilians. This means Israel is ready for a long fight.
The aftermath of the October 7 horrors has led to an unusual public split between the U.S. and Israel. From China to the European Union, all great powers have a say in this crisis, even though the dialogue has been clearly sidelined by Netanyahu’s pursuit of maximalist goals, including the possibility that Palestinians could be forced to leave the Gaza Strip and relocate to the Sinai desert. According to some high-ranking Israeli officials, this represents a “unique and rare opportunity” to settle a new security framework on Israel’s Southern border, leaving Egypt with the puzzle of dealing with millions of refugees.
This is an event that the El-Sisi regime is trying to avert in any possible way. Just a few weeks ahead of the next Presidential elections, Egypt’s economy is in shambles. The country is already grappling with problems stretching from a deepening debt crisis and in desperate need of sources of financing, next to this, it’s dealing with a string of currency devaluations and record inflation. No credible opponent is ready to challenge El-Sisi’s hold on power. And yet the Israel-Hamas war is reviving internal dissent among large swaths of Egyptian society that have gone silent after almost 10 years of iron-fist rule. Right now, the consequences of the Israel-Hamas war are putting the energy security of Egypt, the most populated country in the Arab world, in grave danger.
Israel’s offshore Tamar gas field, providing close to 40% of the country’s production, has been shut to prevent possible retaliations by Hamas. Gas production from Leviathan and Karish fields has been diverted to prevalently serve Israel’s domestic needs, while just a fraction of this is now exported to Egypt. Just last August, the two governments agreed to boost gas cooperation and source new gas from Tamar to “strengthen the diplomatic relationship between Israel and Egypt,” ensuring higher revenues for Israel and ensuring the Arab country with a stable gas flow from the neighbor in the years ahead.
It is worth highlighting that at that time, although nobody expected to be fighting the largest war in decades in a matter of months, senior government officials criticised the deal because it “could endanger Israel’s energy security.” By all means, the Israel-Egypt energy entente is also the least common denominator for the success of the trilateral MoU signed between the EU and the two to increase regional cooperation and boost exports to European countries, aiming to diversify away from Russia.
Cairo has grown increasingly dependent on Israel’s gas to feed its energy system, especially during peak load periods. Even though the country has vast reserves, blackouts and shortages have increased since the start of the last Summer. Now, the Egyptian Cabinet indicates the reduced gas imports from Israel as the cause of relentless power cuts, indirectly transforming the Egyptian grid’s instability into a geopolitical case.
Forced to rely on domestic sources, Egypt has de facto halted high-value LNG exports from the two Mediterranean Idku and Damietta terminals, leaving empty tankers and diverting them to other ports. In 2023, around three-quarters of Egyptian cargoes have been directed towards EU and Turkish terminals, relieving these markets from some pressure felt because of Russian supply curtailments. Eni’s CEO Claudio Descalzi, whose company is a major player in Egypt’s offshore, operating the giant Zohr but also the Damietta LNG facility, is optimistic about the resumption of the country’s exports in the coming weeks.
However, the outlook for the Egyptian energy industry is far from stable. Because of the gas shortage, power cuts have increased, while petrochemicals and fertilizers companies have reduced stocks at their disposal. The significance of a long-term reduction of fertiliser output, the second largest industry for the country’s exports, could bring further economic distress and devaluation to the Egyptian pound, likewise sending shockwaves across the food markets and threatening the livelihoods of millions.
Egypt’s energy security is in such a dire situation that it has even resorted to importing a cargo of mixed fuels, including LNG. The tanker has navigated to the SUMED port, where the FSRU named BW LNG and chartered by state-owned EGAS has been located since 2015. Soon, the vessel will be headed to Italy, leaving Egypt without the option to import LNG. BW LNG is reminiscent of the dark ages of the Egyptian energy sector, meaning the years following the country’s Revolution and its devastating effect on its energy industry, unable to cope with domestic consumption. Indeed, high energy and food prices have been the root causes of the country’s chronic instability in the first half of the last decade, leading to El-Sisi’s seizure of power.
Today, the news of a major LNG exporter in the Mediterranean Basin turning into an importer would be sufficient to spark fears in a market that is already coping with many supply constraints. Against the background of mounting tensions in the Middle East, TTF front-month prices have reached a nine-month high earlier this month. Nevertheless, market watchers remain confident that Arab leaders, including Hezbollah, will maintain a pragmatic approach to the conflict and avoid an escalation.
However, a domestic energy crisis overlapping with the Egyptian presidential elections, a democratic façade without real opposition, could ignite a series of unpredictable political consequences. Currently, the entire MENA region is a cauldron, starting with the imperiled Tunisian democracy and the ongoing rift in Libya, both just South of the EU borders and possibly spreading to other countries such as Lebanon and Iraq.
The crumbling of the EU-Russia energy interdependence has created an opaque energy landscape. In this scenario, energy trade reflects, more than anything else the political sentiment in the MENA region, and European policymakers should not entertain any illusions and acknowledge that continental energy security does not solely rely on the stability of market fundamentals, but also on geopolitical realities.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0693 DOWN 0.0019
USA/ YEN 151.11 UP .253 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2264 DOWN 0.0021
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3787 DOWN .0003 (CDN DOLLAR UP 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 57.17 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.23% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 57.17 PTS OR 0.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.23%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 479/98 PTS OR 1.49%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1946.60
silver:$22.52
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.54 UP 9 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2840
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2944)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.47 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.836…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.575% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.706 UP 5 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.961 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 55.73 POINTS or 0.75%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 117.92 PTS OR 0.77%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 81.50 PTS OR 1.16%
Spain IBEX UP 126.50 PTS OR 1.36%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 225.57PTS OR 0.79%
WTI Oil price 77.01 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81,07 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.05; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 4//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6530 UP 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3175 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0672 DOWN 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2224 DOWN .0061 or 61 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.323% UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .842%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.33 UP .474 //YEN DOWN 48 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3813 UP 23 CDN dollar DOWN 23 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.56
Brent OIL: 79.82
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 4.636%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS PTS to 4.777%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 5.036 %
USA dollar index: 105.77 UP 32 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.47 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.03 DOWN 0 AND 2/100 roubles
GOLD 1958.50
SILVER: 22.60
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 220.33 PTS OR 0.65%
NASDAQ DOWN 125.34 PTS OR 0.82%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.33 UP .89 PTS (6.09)%
GLD: $181.49 UP 0.72 OR 0.40%
SLV/ $20.69 UP .04 OR 0.19%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
There’s A “Crisis Brewing”: Powell & Piss-Poor Auction Spark Chaos In Credit Markets, Crypto Soars
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Well that was a day… Almost time to trot out the ‘deer in headlights’…
A double-whammy of a 30Y TSY auction bloodbath and Powell’s considerably more hawkish-than-expected tone prompted bonds and stocks to be clubbed like a baby seal as the dollar soared…
Source: Bloomberg
Did Powell finally notice that his words at the FOMC about how the market is tightening financial conditions for them prompted a dramatic easing of financial conditions…
Source: Bloomberg
Powell broke the multi-decade win-streak in S&P and Nasdaq…
Weakness in stocks hit at the cash open – after creeping higher overnight – the auction’s spike in yields sent stocks lower and then just as dip-buyers stepped in, Powell punched them in the face, taking stocks to the day’s lows…
“Most Shorted” stocks were monkey-hammered lower, erasing the entire post-FOMC/Payrolls squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Banks continue to give back the post-Bill-Gross “knife-catch” rally…
Treasury yields were higher across the whole curve with the long-end underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
This was the biggest daily jump in the 30Y Yield since March 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield broke back above 5.00%
Source: Bloomberg
As one veteran bond trader MSG’d us: “this is a shitshow, liquidity is disastrous and the auction is the canary in the coalmine… there’s a crisis brewing under everyone’s nose.”
Treasury Liquidity is indeed a “disaster”…
Source: Bloomberg
But we note, ‘they’ have an excuse ready.
As The FT reported that a ransomware attack on the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has disrupted the US Treasury market, according to market participants.
The attack prevented ICBC from settling Treasury trades on behalf of other market participants, according to traders and banks.
“This is a large party on [the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation], so certainly of major concern,” said an executive at a large bank that clears US Treasuries.
“And potentially impacting liquidity of US Treasuries.”
ICBC was starting to restore services as of Thursday afternoon, according to some of the people briefed on the incident.
The problem is – for this narrative – that Treasury liquidity worsened this afternoon – AFTER ICBC was back…
Source: Bloomberg
Usage of The Fed’s Reverse Repo facility dropped back below $1 trillion today for the first time since Aug 2021…
The sovereign CDS market continues to accelerate its fears about USA credit risk…
Source: Bloomberg
Powell’s comments pushed the market’s odds of a first rate-cut back from June to July (after the FOMC and payrolls pulled it closer)…
Source: Bloomberg
And the dollar rallied above last week’s payrolls levels, but remains down from the FOMC…
Source: Bloomberg
The other big mover today was crypto with bitcoin exploding higher on ETF approval hopes (among other things), and Ethereum spiking on BlackRock ETF filing.
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged to almost $38,000 – erasing all losses since the Terra stablecoin crisis started over 18 months ago…
Source: Bloomberg
Most notably there appeared to be a regime change in the ETH/BTC cross…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices managed to hold on to modest gains with WTI testing a $77 handle at the highs but falling back to its lows in the afternoon…
Perhaps more notably, gold managed gains despite the surge in the dollar with futures finding support at $1950…
Finally, the market now seems convinced that global developed country central planners are done hiking rates. As Bloomberg’s hawk/dove indicator shows, we are on the cusp of pricing in rate-cuts globally…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s mostly US and Europe, but also includes the UK, Australia and Japan, but as Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds reports, for the first time in six years, developed-market swaps aren’t pricing in a rate hike in the next six months.
EARLY MORNING TRADING
/THIS AFTERNOON TRADING
THIS is a disaster//expect QE shortly/
(zerohedge)
Stocks Tumble, Yield Surge After Catastrophic 30Y Auction Stops With Biggest Tail On Record As Foreign Demand Craters
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 03:01 PM
Complete disaster.
That’s the only way one can describe today’s 30Y auction, which many expected could be challenging after a mediocre 3Y and a subpar 10Y auction earlier this year, but nobody expected… this.
The bond priced at a high yield of 4.769%, which was below last month’s 4.837%, and just shy of the April 2010 high. But more importantly, it tailed the When Issued by a whopping 5.3bps, which was… well… terrible, because as shown in the chart below, this was the biggest tail on record (going back to 2016).
The bid to cover was just as bad: at 2.236 it was the lowest since Dec 2021.
The internals were even worse as foreign bidders (Indirects) tumbled from 65.1% to 60.1%, the lowest since Nov 2021, and with Directs taking down only 15.2%, banks (Dealers) were forced to step up and take the balance, or a whopping 24.7%, double the recent average of 12.7%, and the highest since Nov 2021.
This is a big warning flag because every time we have seen a surge in Dealer takedowns, some sort of Fed intervention – QE or otherwise – has usually followed and we doubt this time will be different.
The market reaction to the catastrophic 30Y auction was immediately, sparking a swift and painful response across markets with bonds and stocks hammered lower and the dollar spiking.
Treasury yields – as you would expect – exploded higher, with 30Y Yields back up to pre-payrolls levels…
That is the biggest spike in 30Y yields since March 2020…
But the entire curve is higher in yields…
Stocks tanked…
Regional bank stocks tumbled…
The dollar ripped back up to pre-payrolls levels…
Finally, we note that this ugly auction comes as Treasury Liquidity is evaporating dramatically…
The Fed (and The Treasury) have a problem!!
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
Continuing jobless claims jump
(zerohedge)
Continuing Jobless Claims Jump To Highest Since April
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 08:38 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week slipped to 217k (from an upwardly revised 220k), hovering near YTD lows and showing absolutely no signs at all of any labor market stress…
Source: Bloomberg
Oregon saw the biggest decline in claims while California and New York saw the biggest rise…
But, for the sixth straight week, continuing jobless claims increased, rising to 1.834mm Americans – the most since early April 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
And it’s going to get worse, as Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.
We’re gonna need more seasonal adjustments.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Interest on USA debt climbs above $one trillion. As interest rates soar total interest will climb even more and this sets the stage for the end game
(zerohedge)
Endgame: Interest On US Debt Skyrockets Above $1 Trillion For The First Time Ever
WEDNESDAY, NOV 08, 2023 – 05:20 PM
Back in July, when we last looked at the unprecedented horror show that is the US budget deficit – and concluded correctly, long before the Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement, that debt issuance was about to explode and yields would soar – we warned that the debt Rubicon was about to be crossed and “US Debt Interest Payments Are About To Hit $1 Trillion.”
Fast forward to today when the endgame has apparently arrived: according to the Treasury’s own calculations, total interest is now over $1 trillion (or $1.027 trillion to be precise).
We calculated this by multiplying the average interest rate on marketable US Treasury debt (which according to the Treasury is 3.096% as of Oct 31) by the $26.003 trillion in marketable US debt (as of Oct 31) which nets off to $805 billion, and adding to this non-marketable debt interest (which as of Oct 31 was 2.884% multiplied by the amount of non-marketable debt which is $7.696 trillion) and which in turn is an additional $222 billion in interest. Add across and you get $1.027 trillion.
Naturally, this calculation of estimated real-time interest costs – which is entirely based on Treasury data – is different than what the Treasury actually paid. Interest costs in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ultimately totaled $879.3 billion, up from $717.6 billion the previous year and about 14% of total outlays, however that number is merely lagging what the pro forma print currently is, and will inevitably catch up to it, and then lag on the other side even as pro forma interest payment start dropping (once interest rates plunge after the next QE/YCC is launched).
Fans of exponential functions, we got you covered: the unprecedented surge in both interest rates and interest expense in the past two years means that total US interest has doubled since April 2022 and that’s with the inherent lag in interest catch up – as a reminder, the vast majority of 5, 7, 10 and 30 year debt is still locked in at much lower interest rates, and as such, rates will continue to rise as all of the existing debt rolls into much higher rates over the coming years.
Looking ahead, the staggering surge in both yields and total long-term Treasuries in recent months confirms the government will continue to face an escalating interest bill. As a reminder, we were the first to point out that it took just one month after US federal debt first rose above $33 trillion for the first time, to spike by another $600 billion…
… bringing the total to $33.6 trillion, more than the combined GDPs of China, Japan, Germany, and India.
And just to show you how terrifying it is about to get, BofA’s Michael Hartnett notes that “the CBO projects that US government debt will rise by $20 trillion next 10 years, or $5.2 billion every day or $218 million every hour!”
Some more context: total world debt (government, corporate & household) hit a record $227tn in Q1’23, double from $110tn in 2007 & $0.5tn in 1952.
And then there was this warning from the TBAC which very tongue-in-cheek said that “Interest rate expense, as % of GDP, is likely to rise over the medium term”, and also over every other term.
As Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore concludes, the worsening metrics may “reignite debate about the US fiscal path amid heavy borrowing from Washington. That dynamic has already helped drive up bond yields, threatened the return of the so-called bond vigilantes and led Fitch Ratings to downgrade US government debt in August.“
An even more damning conclusion comes from Hartnett, Fiscal excess in the 2020s is adding to already high levels of government debt; until policy makers address the trajectory of government debt, investors are likely to worry that asset-bearish solutions to indebtedness such as inflation, default, currency debasement, are set to be pursued; but as likely central banks may simply bail out governments in coming years via QE & the introduction of YCC (policies that would be v US dollar negative).
“High Crimes And Misdemeanors”: MTG Slaps Mayorkas With Impeachment Resolution Over Border Crisis
THURSDAY, NOV 09, 2023 – 11:30 AM
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has filed an impeachment resolution against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for “high crimes and misdemeanors” over the Biden administration’s failure to stop a flood of immigrants from illegally entering the United States.
“Rather than adhering to an oath he took to defend and secure our country and uphold the Constitution when he was sworn in as Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas has engaged in a pattern of conduct that is incompatible with the laws of the United States…“
MTG’s resolution goes on to cite Article II of the Constitution, which requires that “the Executive branch, which today includes the Secretary of Homeland Security, ensure the laws passed by Congress and signed into law by the President are faithfully executed,” as well as the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which requires that the Secretary of Homeland Security “maintain operational control over the entire international land and maritime borders of the United States.”
“In his willful admittance of border crossers, terrorists, human traffickers, drugs, and other contraband, Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas has failed to maintain operational control of the border, thereby violating the Secure Fence Act of 2006.”
She also cited reports showing that more than 10 million illegal immigrants have entered the United States during Mayorkas’ tenure, including “terrorists, human traffickers, drugs, and other contraband.”
As the Washington Examiner notes, “The 10 million number referenced in the resolution combines 8 million encounters at the southern border with another 1.8 million “gotaways,” or immigrants who managed to evade U.S. border officials and remain in the country to this day. The remaining number of immigrants includes individuals from Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, and other countries.”
She also accuses Mayorkas of failing to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States via the southern border – noting that Customs and Border Patrol has seized approximately 11,200 pounds of the drug during 2021, and another 14,700 in 2022.
“Over 70,000 Americans died from fentanyl in fiscal year 2022,” reads the resolution. “Fentanyl is now the number one killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. Fentanyl kills approximately 300 Americans a day. This is the amount of fentanyl that has been seized at the border, yet 300 Americans are still being killed by fentanyl poisoning every day. The amount of unseized fentanyl has not even been taken into account.”
THE KING REPORT
The King Report November 9, 2023 Issue 7115
Independent View of the News
In yesterday’s King Report, we warned that if commodities keep dropping on recession angst, defensive asset allocation would appear at some point. Yesterday, the defensive asset allocation appeared.
ESZs opened flat on Tuesday night but they quickly began a methodical decline that made a low of 4387.75 at 2:19 ET. Buying for the European opening took ESZs to 4394.75 at 3:51 ET. ESZs then waffled in a 10-point range until they broke higher at 6:13 ET. Traders then aggressively bought ESZs for the NYSE opening rally and the pump & dump. ESZs hit a daily high of 4407.75 at 9:51 ET.
Aggressive selling of ESZs and stocks then appeared. ESZs sank to a daily low of 4375.00 at 12:07 ET.
USZ vacillated between small gains and losses from the Nikkei opening (also US futures opening) until they broke down after the 1 ET Nikkei close. After hitting a low of 113 15/32 at 1:42 ET, USZs went inert until they commenced a rally at 3:06 ET. The rally plodded higher, hitting a daily high of 114 28/32, +29/32, at 11:19 ET. USZs then rolled over and went inert ahead of the 10-year auction.
The US Treasury sold $40B of 10-year notes at 4.519%; WI was 4.511%. The tail was 0.8bps. Direct bids 15.2% (previous 20.9%), indirect bids 69.7%
USZs sank to 114 14/32 at 13:01 ET due to the soft 10-year auction. Someone then jerked USZs to 115 4/32 at 13:09 ET. After a modest retreat, USZs hit 115 5/32 at 13:25 ET. Someone is determined to push USZs higher! This of course, has reduced the interest on the issued debt for the US Treasury.
ESZs rallied in concert with USZs, but on a slight delay. USZs went inert from 13:25 ET until they broke lower at 14:00 ET. USZs bottomed at 114 23/32. ESZs inched higher until they broke lower after 14:32 ET. ESZs and USZs commenced last-hour rallies. The USZ rally was modest; ESZs zoomed to 4403.50 at 15:43 ET, a 13-handle last-hour gain. ESZs then dropped to 4297.00 at the NYSE close.
A few minutes before the NYSE opening, Powell delivered remarks at “A Conference Celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics” of the Fed. He did NOT mention monetary policy or the economy. Powell advocated for flexibility in Fed forecast methods. (They have been very wrong!)
NY Fed President Williams spoke at 13:40 ET. He did not mention the economy or rates. Williams asserted that Fed models are not to blame for the missed inflation call. “Any shortcomings in the models reflect shortfalls in our collective understanding, rather than the cause or our misunderstanding. And it is the job of researchers to learn from experience as they revise existing models and build new ones.” Williams is correct; the academics that constructed the models are at fault. PS – US econ data is bogus!
Fed’s Williams says US central bank’s policymaking now more strategic (LMAO!) Fed research analysis three decades ago was largely tactical and “very much about the here and now” of decision making… But the Fed has now undergone a large transformation both in transparency and how it thinks about making policy as a longer-running strategy, he said. (Kamala-like word salad!) https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-williams-says-us-central-banks-policymaking-now-more-strategic-2023-11-08/
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will retire on 6/30. Mester has been a steady hawk. Team Obama-Biden will get another chance to nominate another leftist from a Fed Reserve high position.
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied into and after the 10-year note auction The NY Fang+ Index rallied moderately. The S&P 500 Index rallied for the 8th straight session; Nasdaq rallied for the 9th straight session
Negative aspects of previous session Industrial commodities declined sharply again on recession angst The DJIA and DJTA declined modestly
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Industrial commodities declined sharply again. Is this good on inflation or bad on economy?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4377.92 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4391.20; 4359.76
Biden tells Bibi 3-day fighting pause could help secure release of some hostages (Monday call) Netanyahu told Biden he doesn’t trust Hamas’ intentions… The Israeli official told Axios that part of Netanyahu’s reservation is because Hamas attacked a group of Israeli soldiers, kidnapped one of them, and killed several others during a humanitarian pause during the 2014 war… https://www.axios.com/2023/11/07/biden-netanayhu-gaza-hamas-ceasefire-pause-hostages
US confirms Houthis shot down military drone – Fox News
Fox News: US launches airstrikes to retaliate for attacks on bases in Iraq, Syria U.S. military forces conducted an airstrike against a weapons facility in Syria Wednesday in retaliation for dozens of attacks against US bases in the region over the past several weeks… https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/november-8-israel-hamas-war?
@NoahPollak: Important expose by @honestreporting : Photographers working for AP, CNN, NYT, and Reuters were EMBEDDED with Hamas on 10/7 and accompanied the terrorist group into Israel. They knew the attack was coming, and participated in it. (If true, these outlets should be…)
Disney Q4 Adj EPS .82, .69 exp.; Rev. $21.24B, $21.43B exp.; Disney+ Subscribers 150.2m, 147.07m exp.; Disney on track to achieve $7.5B in cost savings; Saw $5.5B (Per CEO Iger). DIS rallied 3.5% on more subscribers than expected. https://twitter.com/AlphaSenseInc/status/1722360466549162000
Fed probes Morgan Stanley over money-laundering controls: report Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm is being scrutinized by the Federal Reserve, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The regulator is looking into whether the bank has sufficient controls in place to prevent rich foreign customers from laundering money, the Journal’s report added… https://trib.al/eRkuYXV
Today – The 30-year (final) tranche of the US Treasury refunding will occur. Historically USZs decline into the auctions but reverse after the 30-year tranche. This week, the opposite has occurred. USZs have rallied sharply into the auctions and after the auctions. If USZs rally into the 30-year auction, the odds of a reversal to the downside after the auction are high. And if there was a scheme to manipulate USZs higher into the auctions to abet the US Treasury, the odds of a downside reversal are even higher.
The absence or presence of defensive asset allocators could be a big factor. How USZs act after the 30-year auction could be the biggest factor for ESZs in the afternoon.
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 219k, Continuing Claims 1.825m; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic & Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9:30 ET, Barkin at 10 ET, StL Fed Pres Pease noon ET, Powell 14:00 ET
ESZs are -3.25 and USZs are +17/32 at 21:00 ET. Is more defensive asset allocation on the way?
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4343; 100-day MA: 4402; 150-day MA: 4329; 200-day MA: 4253 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,851; 100-day MA: 34,264; 150-day MA: 34,041; 200-day MA: 33,813 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4425.18 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4281.17 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4364.00 triggers a sell signal
Comer also requested interviews with: Sara Biden (James’ wife), Hallie Biden (Beau Biden’s ex-wife & ex-Hunter paramour), Elizabeth Secundy (reportedly ex-Hunter paramour), Melissa Cohen Biden (Hunter’s wife), and Tony Bobulinski (Hunter’s ex-business partner).
Hours before Comer signed the subpoenas, Hunter’s attorney Abbe Lowell asked House Speaker Johnson to deescalate the inquiry into Hunter Biden.
Fox’s @ChadPergram: From colleague David Spunt. Abbe Lowell, atty for Hunter Biden, writes to Johnson. Asks him to back off from Hunter Biden probe. This comes after Comer is expected to subpoena Hunter Biden. Lowell to Johnson: “want to go back to our hope that you will be a different Speaker—one who restores the integrity and reputation of your chamber; one who, as you promised, “restore[s] the people’s faith” and “regular order” in the House. “This can begin with your holding Chairmen Comer, Jordan, and Smith to the facts and stopping them from continuing their partisan political games. The latest example of their hoping to do the opposite is ripe for your intervention.”
@theblaze: EXCLUSIVE INVESTIGATION Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn won a Congressional Gold Medal and got a lucrative book deal for his account of events on J6. The story made him a media hero. But a review of video evidence from that day does not corroborate his story. At all. WATCH: https://t.co/1C2G5uXVH7
@ashleyhayek: Republicans failed to deliver the mail ballot vote. Carluccio had 144,630 mail ballots. McCaffery had 524,963 mail ballots – 3.6x the votes prior to Election Day! So once again, despite the fact Carluccio delivered 861,214 votes on Election Day, it was not enough to overcome the left’s mail ballots. This isn’t hard – GOP: #CHASETHEVOTE #Pennsylvania
@seanmdav: The Kentucky governor race results were interesting because the race was a contest of two political dynasty machines in the state: McConnell vs. Beshear. It’s an open secret in Washington that McConnell is out of gas, has lost control of his own conference, and is no longer calling the shots. He will not be Senate GOP leader after next year’s election. But we didn’t learn until last night that McConnell’s personal political machine in Kentucky is also on its last legs. Cameron was literally McConnell’s protege and was described as such in local media for years. He worked for McConnell, was picked for his statewide runs by McConnell, had his campaign run by a veteran McConnell aide, and even counted McConnell among attendees at his wedding. Cameron’s election was supposed to be McConnell’s crowning achievement, as well McConnell’s opportunity to finally retire and focus on his health issues. It’s hard to overstate what a devastating personal loss last night was for Mitch McConnell. He desperately wanted to leave the Senate on a high note. Instead, McConnell will limp out of his leadership role after 2024 having lost the confidence of his Senate colleagues, the opportunity to have his hand-picked political protege appoint his successor, and the ability to push forever war in Ukraine.
@bennyjohnson: Since Ronna Romney McDaniel took over the GOP in 2017, Republicans have lost: 8 Governors races, 3 Senate seats, 19 House seats, 1 Presidential race. And yesterday we suffered humiliating losses in deep red states Ohio and Kentucky. Republicans are sick of Ronna McDaniel…
@AnnCoulter: PRO-LIFERS ARE GOING TO WIPE OUT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. IN ADDITION to losing Ohio Tuesday night, Gov Glenn Youngkin lost big in Virginia — because of pro-life zealots. A 15-week abortion limit would have been fine with VA voters, but Republicans couldn’t promise to stop there without risking a primary challenge from FULL-BAN pro-lifers.
@covid_clarity: Democrats have a path to winning in 2024… mobilize around the abortion issue. Republicans are not presenting a clear position & message that resonate with the majority of Americans.
Ex-DJT advisor @StephenM: We are in the midst of the most catastrophic, nation-changing , society-unraveling, civilization-breaking, immigration crisis in history. GOP should have nationalized the off-year election around this nightmare with the urgency of hellfire and harvested to the hilt. They did not.
@TheBabylonBee: Republican Party Checks Into Rehab for Addiction to Losinghttps://buff.ly/40yDkei
@NickFondacaro: Vivek Ramaswamy calls out GOP chairwoman Ronna McDaniel after yet another series of Republican losses. He goes on to call her out for awarding liberal NBC the 3rd #GOPDebate. He also blasts Moderator Kristen Welker for pushing the Russia Collusion Hoax. https://twitter.com/NickFondacaro/status/1722422487361687806
@VivekGRamaswamy I’m sick and tired of this Republican Establishment that has made us a party of losers. Where is the accountability for years of losing: 2018, 2020, 2022 and now last night? I’m calling on @GOPChairwoman to resign tonight. https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1722421483698311468
Ramaswamy slams Nikki Haley: “You have the likes of Nikki Haley who stepped down from her time at the U.N. Then she becomes a military contractor, she joins the board of Boeing and is now a multi-millionaire. ‘That’s the choice we face. A different generation who’s going to put this country first, or do you want Dick Cheney in 3-inch heels?’ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12726947/Five-Republican-candidates-debate-Miami-Trump-holds-rally.html
Nikki Haley said Trump has gone ‘weak at the knees.’
Republican presidential debate live updates: DeSantis tells Netanyahu to ‘finish the job once and for all’ against Hamas in Israel https://trib.al/XDLYcbB
Republican presidential debate live updates: DeSantis jabs at Haley on China, accuses her of writing ‘the Chinese ambassador a love letter’ https://trib.al/70eBXUR
Emerald Robinson’s The Right Way
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