NOV 21//GOLD REBOUNDS AGAIN AS THE CROOKS DEFEND $2,000 GOLD: GOLD CLOSED UP $21.65 TO $1999.60 . SILVER CLOSED UP $.32 AT $23.83//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $17.60 TO $941.50 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $47.65 TO $1085.40//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: LOOKS LIKE A DEAL TO RELEASE 50 ISRAELI HOSTAGES (WOMAN AND CHILDREN) WITH ISRAEL RELEASING 150 PALESTINIAN WOMEN PLUS PROVIDE AID AND FUEL//UPDATES ON THE ISRAELI-HAMAS WAR//UPDATES ON UKRAINE VS RUSSIA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THE USA IS FINISHED SUPPLYING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/ETC//MUST SUING MEDIA MATTERS AS WELL AS TEXAS ATTORNEY GENERAL LOOKING INTO THE FRAUDULENT PRACTICES OF THIS NON PROFIT ENTITY//BEST BUY WARNS AHEAD OF BLACK FRIDAY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 2 190 H BMO CAPITAL 4 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 880 C CITIGROUP 1
TOTAL: 5 5 MONTH TO DATE: 1,985
JPMorgan stopped 0/5 contracts.
FOR NOV.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2023. CONTRACT: 5 NOTICES FOR 500 OZ or 0.0155 TONNES
total notices so far: 1985 contracts for 198,500 oz (6.1742 tonnes)
FOR NOV:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 820 for 4,100,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $21.65//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 32 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.730 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 532 CONTRACTS TO 134,047 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD MINOR SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 721 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 721 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.26). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 491 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS THEY ARE CONTINUALLY BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A TINY SIZED 41 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON +0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 0 MILLION OZ//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.245 MILLION
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.310 MILLION OZ + 1.245 (EX. FOR RISK) = 5.550 MILLION OZ.
//GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 721 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED A HUGE 985 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 5934 contracts: OR 29.670 MILLION OZ (395 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.670 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 29.670 MILLION OZ (GOING TO BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 532CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.26 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY 41 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 41 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP
NEW STANDING 4.310 OZ + 1.245 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTAL 5.550 MILLION OZ/// /// WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 491OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 721CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG (721) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1150 CONTRACTS TO 488,683 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED A HUGE 2,038 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1150 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $4.15 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2200 OZ QUEUE JUMP + TODAY’S 0 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 TONNES// // EXCH FOR RISK PRIOR: 3.8125= NEW EX. FOR RISK TOTAL:5.3645 TONNES/ // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 6.7900TONNES + 5.3645 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK) = 12.4262 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4.15 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6208OI CONTRACTS (19.309PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5058CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 490,721
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,208 CONTRACTS WITH 1150 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5058 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6208 CONTRACTS OR 19.309 TONNES. WE HAD 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1402 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5058 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1150) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6208 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2200 OZ QUEUE JUMP : NEW STANDING 6.7900 TONNES + 5.3645 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR /THUS NEW TOTAL FOR GOLD STANDING: 12.4264 TONNES // /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION AS THE SPECS ARE CONTINUALLY USHERED INTO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1402 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 47,517 CONTRACTS OR 4,751,700 OZ OR 147.74 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3167 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 147.74 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 147.74/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.16% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 147.47TONNES//
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 532CONTRACTS OI TO 133,062 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 41 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 41 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 41 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 532 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 41 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 491 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.455 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.39 PTS OR 0.01% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 44.18 PTS OR 0.25% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 33.89 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1387 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1386 /Oil UP TO 77.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.44/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1150 CONTRACTS TO 488,683 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.15 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5048 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 5048 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5058CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6,208 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5058 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1150 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.15//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1402 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (12.4264 TONNES ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $4.15) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF6,208 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SMALL T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 19.309 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2200OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:6.7900 TONNES + 1.552 TONNES exchange for risk today +3.8125 EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR; TOTAL EX. FOR RISK : 5.3645 TONNES/// NEW TOTAL STANDING: 12.4264 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.15. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS.
WE HAD REMOVED – A HUGE 2064 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6208 CONTRACTS OR 620,800 OZ OR 19.309 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 284,185 FAIR TO GOOD
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1985 notices 198,500 oz 6.1742 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 200 contracts having GAINED 13 contracts. We had 9 contracts filed on MONDAY, so we GAINED 22 contracts or an additional 2200 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
December LOST 11,257 contracts DOWN to 191,913 contracts. The Dec OI is unusually high with 7 more trading days before FDN.
JAN. gained 205 contracts RISING TO 2684 contracts.
We had 5 contracts filed for today representing 500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1985 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (200 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 5 x 100 oz per contract equals 218,300 OZ OR 6.7900 TONNES + 1.552 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY+3.8125 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR: total ex. for risk = 5.3645//THUS TOTAL STANDING: 12.4264 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV.contract month: No of notices filed so far (1985) x 100 oz + (200) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (5) x 100 oz) which equals 218,300 oz standing OR 6.7122 TONNES + 5.3645 EX FOR RISK FOR MONTH = 12.4264 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 12.4264 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,882,707.230 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,060.788.902 (312.93 tonnes)..cme corrected
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,821,918.328 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,215,842 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 255.54 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 21
//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
201,330.353 OZ CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,120,629.234 oz ASAHI CNT Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
42 contracts (210,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
820 Contracts (4,100,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i)Into ASAHI: 615,903.600 oz
ii) Into CNT 492,767.590 oz
iii) Into Delaware 11,958.044 oz
total customer deposit 1,120,624.234 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/268.121 million or 50.11%
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of CNT 201,330.353 oz
total: 201,330.353 oz
adjustments: 3 of which two are dealer to customer
Brinks: 921,295.764 oz
JPMorgan: 552,476.934 oz
and one adjustment: customer to dealer Delaware
i) 4,657.967 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37,140 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 268.121 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 42 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY, SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER AT THE COMEX AS THIS GUY IMMEDIATELY TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH AN EFP TO TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER THERE.
DEC. LOST 5208 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 49,626
JANUARY GAINED 129 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1398
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 86,689// good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 77,215 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 820 x 5,000 oz = 4,109,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (42) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV/2023 contract month: 820 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (42) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.310 MILLION OZ +0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 1.245 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR) =5.555 MILLION OZ
There are 37.140 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $16.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.15 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 883.43 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 437,104 MILLION OZ
NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 778,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.768 MILLION OZ
NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .733 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.73 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
end
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/ Jan N. (Koos Jansen)
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1387
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1386
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.39 PTS OR 0.01%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 44.18 PTS OR 0.25%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 33.89PTS OR 0.10%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.21 EURO RISES TO 1.0945 UP 1 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.697 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.63/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.5925***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.311*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.572…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.749
3j Gold at $1991.80 silver at: 23.69 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 38 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.09//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,63// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.697% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8857 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9673 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.411 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.557 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.904 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.80…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.1525
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Stock Rally Fizzles Ahead Of FOMC Minutes, Nvidia Earnings
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 07:30 AM
The torrid US equity rally of the past three weeks that sent stocks near 2023 highs, stalled as futures wavered on Tuesday ahead of closely watched earnings by Nvidia and FOMC minutes as some investors questioned the sustainability of the meltup fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.1% after the index hit a 22 month high on Monday; investors will watch NVDA earnings closely – especially after the recent OpenAI disaster – to see if another rally is possible. 10Y yield are 3bps lower at 4.41% as the USD extends its recent sharp sell-off. Commodities are mixed with ags and metals higher; iron ore the standout. Keep an eye on oil, as multiple news sources are reporting the potential for a temporary cease-fire although seeing how oil tumbled after the Israel conflict, it only makes “sense” that a ceasefire will send it higher. The macro data focus today includes the latest FOMC minutes, existing home sales, Philly/Chicago Fed activity data, NVDA earnings (post-mkt), and Treasury auctions 2Y and 10Y TIPS.
In premarket trading, Agilent Technologies jumped after an earnings beat, while Gen Digital climbs 3.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the cyber security company, saying it is “an underappreciated EPS compounder” whose shares are undervalued. Lowe’s slumped after cutting its sales forecast as did Best Buy, which dropped 4.8% after same-store sales fell by more than expected in the third quarter. Here are some other movers:
CRH rises 3% after agreeing to buy a portfolio of cement and ready-mixed concrete assets in Texas from Martin Marietta Materials for a total consideration of $2.1 billion.
Dick’s Sporting Goods rises 8.4% after the retailer reported an unexpected increase in third-quarter comparable sales and boosted its annual forecasts.
Hibbett Inc. rises 14% after the sporting goods retailer reported EPS and sales that topped consensus estimates in its third quarter.
Kohl’s Corp. falls 4.5% after reporting a seventh-straight drop in comparable sales.
Lowe’s drops 4.4% after the home products retailer reduced its full-year revenue forecast again.
Symbotic jumps 25% after the warehouse automation company forecast 1Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
In a note published overnight (available to pro subs), Goldman strategists said there is a risk of “disappointment in the near term” amid lingering concerns about economic growth and inflation, after the S&P 500 surged to its strongest close since August and the Nasdaq 100 hit a 22-month high on Monday. On the other hand, Citigroup strategists warned of the possibility of a short squeeze that could derail the momentum; then again their warnings is rather late: the time to discuss a squeeze was weeks ago (as we did).
“Despite a more certain outlook regarding peak rates and potential cuts in 2024, there are few upside catalysts,” said Liberum strategist Susana Cruz. “Corporate guidance was pretty soft during this earning season, forecasts for the fourth quarter have fallen and we will probably see more downgrades. That’s why we expect equities to experience a soft patch in the first half of 2024.”
The FOMC minutes, which are due out at 2pm, may provide more insights into policy makers’ thinking. The market is pricing in about a 30% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. “We are not expecting any major new information, but the minutes could be less dovish than the current market pricing,” said Mohit Kumar, a managing director at Jefferies International. “The minutes are likely to indicate that the door is still open for another hike and emphasize that rates need to be kept on hold for longer.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, led by declines in real estate and autos, after ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said market expectations on rate cuts were too optimistic. Among individual movers, TeamViewer SE plunged after the German software maker’s largest shareholder sold part of its stake at a discount. Swiss medical devices firm Sonova Holding AG jumped after reporting results. Here are the most notable European movers:
Sonova shares jump as much as 7.3% as investors looked past a cut to adjusted Ebitda forecasts and welcomed what they saw as more realistic guidance from the hearing-aid maker
Coca-Cola HBC shares advance as much as 4.1% after the anchor bottler announced a one-time €400m share buyback program. The buyback is described by Goodbody as “opportunistic”
Inditex shares advance 1.4% to their highest level in more than six years, taking their gain so far this year to around 47%, among the best-performing stocks on the Stoxx 600 Retail Index
Admiral rises as much as 3.6%, leading the Stoxx 600 insurance index on Tuesday after Citi double-upgrades to buy, writing that consensus appears overly conservative pricing impact
Intermediate Capital Group rises as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan upgrades the private equity firm to overweight from neutral. The broker also boosted its price target
Cranswick shares jump as much as 4.3% after the meat producer reported 1H earnings. Analysts said this was another strong update from the company, with RBC calling margins “impressive”
MorphoSys falls as much as 32%, the most in a year, after the German biotech firm announced the results of a trial for its pelabresib drug to treat myelofibrosis. Analysts see the trial as “mixed”
LVMH falls as much as after 1.6% after being downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS, with the broker expecting the French luxury conglomerate to pause a years-long outperformance in 2024
TeamViewer falls as much as 11% after an offering of 13m shares by holder Tigerluxone Sarl prices via Deutsche Bank at €13.90 apiece, representing a ~7.1% discount
Softcat falls as much as 4.9% after JPMorgan downgrades the IT resell
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day, bolstered by technology shares as well as Beijing’s latest move to support the property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, on course for the highest close since Sept. 15. Tech stocks such as TSMC and Alibaba sent the index higher as a weakening dollar supported the sector, and artificial intelligence-related companies climbed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings results. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, mainland China, Taiwan and Korea were among the notable outperformers in the region.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by support-related optimism in which the Hong Kong benchmark was led by property stocks to briefly above the 18,000 level after reports that China is drafting a “whitelist” of 50 real-estate developers that would be eligible for financing, the latest move by Beijing to support the troubled property sector, while China also asked government officials to increase financial support for the economy and looks to further bolster major strategies.
Australia’s ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in the mining and materials sectors atoned for the slack in tech and defensives but with gains limited after the hawkish undertones from the RBA Minutes.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction as headwinds from recent JPY strength were counterbalanced by the decline in JGB yields.
After several days of declines, Indian stocks rose, tracking Asian peers on improving risk sentiment in the region amid a fall in the dollar. The SENSEX Index rose 0.4% to 65,930.77 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.5%. Out of 30 stocks in the index, 18 rose and 12 fell.
In FX, the dollar falls for a fourth consecutive session while European stocks and US futures are little changed ahead of Nvidia earnings. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.2%. Chinese state media reports on stimulus, along with a possible “truce agreement” that would clear the way for the release of some hostages held by Hamas weighed on the US currency. Sentiment for the dollar also weakened after US leading index data posted a third consecutive deterioration, to further indicate potential for a recession. The Japanese yen and kiwi are the best performers among the G-10’s, rising 0.5% versus the greenback. Some hedge funds have been unwinding long USD/JPY call positions while others bought USD/JPY puts as they look for the pair to decline, according to traders
In rates, treasuries rose with US 10-year yields falling 1bp to 4.41%. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with the long-end continuing Monday’s outperformance spurred by solid 20-year bond auction. US yields richer by ~2bp across long-end of the curve, flattening related curve spreads; 10-year yields around 4.41%, richer by 1bp on the day, trailing bunds by 1bp while keeping pace with gilts. Wider flattening moves are under way in core European rates market ahead of appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel toward the end of the European trading day. UK short-end yields edge up after Bank of England governor Bailey said interest rates may need to rise again. US session includes FOMC minutes release and a 10-year TIPS reopening. US auctions include a 2yr FRN and a $15BN 10-year TIPS reopening at 1pm.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.1% to trade near $77.70 following 6.5% two-day surge; spot gold adds 0.6%.
US economic data includes October Chicago Fed national activity index and November Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am) and October existing home sales (10am). From central banks, we will hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Schnabel and Centeno, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, and US government auctions include a 2yr FRN and a 10yr TIPS auction.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,559.00
MXAP up 0.4% to 162.54
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 507.87
Nikkei down 0.1% to 33,354.14
Topix down 0.2% to 2,367.79
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,733.89
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,067.93
Sensex up 0.4% to 65,932.21
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,078.21
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,510.42
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 456.19
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.60%
Euro little changed at $1.0945
Brent Futures down 0.6% to $81.81/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,985.11
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.36
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Japan’s auction of 20-year government bonds met with strong investor demand as long-term US debt yields continued to fall and the yen’s strengthening cooled speculation that a central bank policy change was imminent. BBG
Chinese authorities are putting pressure on state banks to accelerate lending to private property developers, as they strengthen efforts to revive the country’s debt-stricken real estate market by supporting some of its biggest and most precarious companies. FT
OpenAI’s board of directors approached Dario Amodei, the co-founder and CEO of rival large-language model developer Anthropic, about a potential merger of the two companies, said a person with direct knowledge. The approach came after OpenAI’s board had fired CEO Sam Altman on Friday and was part of an effort by OpenAI to persuade Amodei to replace Altman as CEO, the person said. The Information
NVDA earnings post close today will dictate overall market sentiment for the remainder of the week. The desk has positioning as positioning as 8 out of 10 (down from a 10 out of 10 last quarter when a blow-out print only saw the stock trade up ~10 bps on a T+1 basis). While most investors do not expect the debate around CY2025 earnings power to be settled on this call (easily the #1 debate on the stock), investors are looking for another clean beat-and-raise set of results. The bar is still very high. GS GBM
China encouraged lenders to cap the amount of new loans they issue in early 2024 and shift some forward, as authorities try to smooth the credit cycle, people familiar said. The guidance implies a limit in the first quarter of 7.9 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), according to Bloomberg calculations — a quarter less than in the first three months of 2023. BBG
Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh said his group was close to reaching a “truce agreement” with Israel via Qatari meditation, suggesting talks over freeing some hostages held by the militant group are progressing. BBG
Mutual funds have struggled to keep up with benchmarks YTD, though they have fared better since the start of 3Q. While the outperformance of the largest tech stocks has continued to drag on mutual fund performance, PMs increased their exposure to the group in 3Q. PMs rotated toward Quality, Growth, Tech and Energy in 3Q.
The most popular hedge fund long and short positions have supported returns despite a deteriorating stock-picking environment. Hedge funds have lifted net exposures modestly while maintaining record gross leverage. HF’s bought mega-cap tech during 3Q, lifting their exposures to the “Magnificent 7” to a new high.
Biden could launch an initiative to expand Social Security benefits, creating a contrast over the program between Dems and Republicans heading into the 2024 election. Politico
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the tech-led gains in the US where Microsoft shares climbed to a record high in otherwise quiet trade and with Chinese markets underpinned by property sector support. ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in the mining and materials sectors atoned for the slack in tech and defensives but with gains limited after the hawkish undertones from the RBA Minutes. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction as headwinds from recent JPY strength were counterbalanced by the decline in JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by support-related optimism in which the Hong Kong benchmark was led by property stocks to briefly above the 18,000 level after reports that China is drafting a “whitelist” of 50 developers for a financing boost, while China also asked government officials to increase financial support for the economy and looks to further bolster major strategies.
Top Asian News
PBoC reportedly encouraged some lenders to cap the amount of new loans they will issue in early 2024 and shift some of the loans forward to this year, according to Bloomberg. Subsequently, PBoC has reportedly told some banks to bring forward some of the loans and then intend to extend in early 2024 to later this year, via Reuters citing sources; a directive was reportedly issued earlier this week.
China’s major state-owned banks seen buying Dollars via onshore swaps and selling them in spot FX market this week, according to Reuters sources.
RBA Governor Bullock said she is increasingly optimistic about the labour market and noted that inflation is a crucial challenge over the next one or two years.
RBA November Meeting Minutes stated that they considered the case for raising rates or holding steady and the Board saw a credible case that a rate rise was not needed at the meeting but judged the case for hiking was the stronger one as inflation risk increased. RBA stated that whether further tightening is required would depend on data and assessment of risks, while it saw a risk that inflation expectations could increase if rates were not raised and noted is important to prevent even a modest further increase in inflation expectations. Furthermore, it stated that staff projections for inflation at the meeting assumed one or two more rate hikes and the Board noted the Cash Rate remained below rates in many other countries, as well as acknowledged that rising house prices could indicate that policy was not especially restrictive.
European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C, with macro developments a touch light after Monday’s US-tech-led performance. The FTSE 100 -0.5% is the standout laggard, amid GBP strength after BoE’s Bailey on Monday and reinforced by the Treasury Select Committee headlined by the BoE’s hawks. Sectors are mixed overall: Retail names the relative outperformer amid numerous broker moves for UK firms, while Telecoms, Energy & Banks are the relative laggards. Stateside, futures are flat/incrementally lower with the tone a tentative one before FOMC Minutes (early given Thanksgiving) for the November gathering, ES & NQ U/C. EU antitrust regulators raid online food delivery firms in two EU countries; companies not named, according to Reuters.
Top European News
EU is reportedly set to place France on a fiscal watch list which is scheduled for release today, according to Bloomberg.
German Economy Ministry spokesperson says the budget freeze is necessary for the situation and the government is working intensively on solutions.
FX
Kiwi boosted by encouraging NZ trade data as NZD/USD bounces from 0.6030 to 0.6086 and AUD/NZD retreats through 1.0850.
Yen extends recovery gains against the Greenback between 148.41-147.16 parameters with impetus via softer Treasury yields.
Aussie and Sterling underpinned by hawkish RBA and BoE vibes as AUD/USD eyes 200 DMA at 0.6589 and Cable 100 DMA just above 1.2500.
Euro solid on 1.0900 handle vs Buck and testing Fib at 1.0960.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1406 vs exp. 7.1677 (prev. 7.1612).
Fixed Income
Bonds hit buffers after early EU advances, but retain firm bid, Bunds hold within 131.17-130.82 range.
Gilts stay afloat of 97.00 following a pullback from 97.51 to 97.09 amidst hawkish BoE TSC testimony.
T-note sits tight between 109-01+/108-26+ band awaiting US national activity index, Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey and existing home sales ahead of FOMC minutes.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are softer, trimming Monday’s upside where the contract settled higher by over USD 1.70/bbl; action since has been more contained with specific developments light ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
Currently, WTI & Brent Jan’24 trade just below USD 77.50/bbl and USD 82.00/bbl respectively, towards the top-end of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is bid, benefitting from the softer USD and modest yield downside, with the yellow metal holding just shy of the USD 1990/oz mark and the session high above that.
Base metals continue the positive APAC tone with upside driven by the USD and an escalation of strike action at the Las Bambas mine in Peru.
Goldman Sachs said its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper cuts should not be ruled out given the fall in speculative positioning and time spreads, as well as higher-than-expected inventories.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas production in 2023 is to be 30bcm less than in 2022, according to Tass.
Iranian Oil Minister says production will reach 3.6mln BPD in March 2024 and aims for 4mln BPD for the next Iranian year.
IEA’s head of oil market says that even if OPEC+ oil production cuts are extended into 2024, IEA sees a slight surplus in the global market balance; says we are in a deficit now and all stocks are drawing at a fast rate.
Union at the MMG (1208 HK) Las Bambas mine in Peru is to go on indefinite strike beginning November 28th, according to the union secretary-general.
Codelco is to spend an extra USD 720mln overhauling its key copper mine with the Chuquicamata mine being converted from an open pit to an underground mine, according to Bloomberg.
Geopolitics
Hamas chief said that they are close to reaching a temporary ceasefire agreement and that Hamas delivered its response to Qatari officials, according to Reuters. Furthermore, a Hamas official noted that ongoing talks are about a temporary ceasefire for a number of days, arrangements for entry of aid into Gaza and a hostages-prisoners swap deal.
“Qatari government is expected to announce today that it will reach a deal for the release of the hostages. The source added that he hoped nothing would happen on the ground in the coming hours to thwart this”, according to a source cited by Axios’ Ravid. Subsequently, “As part of the hostage deal, a lull in the fighting in Gaza will be declared for four days, with the possibility of extending it for another two days.”, via Axios’ Ravid.
“Qatar reveals that Hamas hostage negotiations have reached the ‘closest point’ to the agreement”, according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP.
South Korea issued a sail warning following the recent notice by North Korea for a satellite launch and the South Korean Defence Ministry said it is watching North Korea’s satellite launch plan with the possibility it would succeed. Furthermore, South Korea’s military announced that US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson arrived at a South Korean port.
Israeli Officials says “There are some technical matters that must be worked on to complete the deal with Hamas “, via Al Arabiya
US Event Calendar
08:30: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -20.3
08:30: Oct. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0, prior 0.02
10:00: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.5%, prior -2.0%
14:00: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes
Central Bank Speakers
14:00: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
For those kind enough to have followed my daughter Maisie’s battle with a hip disease called Perthes over the last 3 years, there was more good news in her latest 6 monthly scan yesterday. When she was operated on 2 years ago and spent 13 months in a wheelchair, the expectation was that she would need a hip replacement when she was around 16 after her body stopped growing. Managing it carefully through childhood was the most likely option. However it’s all gone far better than expected, helped by those 13 months in a chair, and the surgeon yesterday said that she won’t likely need one now until she’s much later in life as the hip has nearly fully grown back now with a good shape appearing when x-rayed. The only thing she can’t do for now is trampolining which is a small price to pay. She plays netball, is a phenomenal swimmer and even football so it’s a big relief. The next scan isn’t for a year now which shows that the consultant is very happy. So thanks for all those messages in the darker days a couple of years back.
Moving onto markets and yesterday marked a relatively quiet session as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. A little more excitement came with a strong 20yr US treasury auction after Europe went home which helped the 60/40 trade. The S&P 500 (+0.74%), built on the last three weeks of gains to continue its run of steady advances. And the optimism was evident more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.4pts) closing at a 2-month low, and Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions easing to its most accommodative in 2 months as well. Watch out for Nvidia’s earnings tonight. Their Q1 earnings in May saw markets ride a wave of huge AI momentum so its becoming an important macro event.
Ahead of that, those moves for the S&P now leave the index at its highest level since early August, having now advanced by +10.4% since the low in late-October. In fact on a monthly basis, the index is now on course for its best performance since July 2022. Interestingly, that was another month when the newsflow was predominantly negative (European gas risks, Fed hiking 75bps), but growing hopes about a dovish pivot helped support a brief resurgence for markets, ahead of bigger losses over the next couple of months. So a potential word of warning if the Fed and others do stay hawkish.
For now at least, the more positive news for risk assets actually saw investors take out a bit of the more dovish pricing for next year. For instance, the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2024 meeting ticked up +3.1bps to 4.44%. And in turn there was a selloff at the front end of the treasury curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.5bps to 4.912%. Meanwhile, the $16bn sale of 20yr US Treasuries was stronger than expected and longer end rates rallied as a result. 20yr yields were priced at 4.80% just ahead of the auction before falling nearly -5bps in the minute after before finishing down -2.2bps on the day. Similarly, 10yr UST yields were +2bps higher prior to the auction before rallying sharply and finishing -1.6bps lower overall on the day at 4.42% and falling another -2.5bps in Asia this morning.
In Europe, we saw yields on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and gilts (+2.1bps) move higher, albeit before the US treasury auction. That came as central bank officials warned once again about the expectation of rate cuts. For example, Spain’s de Cos said it was “absolutely premature” to begin talking about cuts, and Belgium’s Wunsch pointed out that expectations of cuts risk leading to easier policy that increases the risk of a hike. He also added that he felt markets were “relatively optimistic today that they exclude the possibility that we have to do more or that we have to remain at 4% for longer”.
Elsewhere yesterday, some of the biggest news came from the AI space. Of course, Nvidia’s earnings after the US close will be the main highlight today. But in the meantime, the saga at OpenAI has continued, as most of their employees have said they’ll resign and join their former CEO Sam Altman at Microsoft, unless the board quits instead. In terms of the market reaction, Microsoft (+2.05%) outperformed US equities more broadly on the chances of picking up AI talent and a new AI division from this saga. This helped drive the tech-focused FANG+ index (+1.55%) and the NASDAQ (+1.13%).
In the meantime, there was a continued bounceback in oil prices yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.71% to $82.32/bbl, which builds on its gains last Friday. That means Brent crude is now up more than $5/bbl over the last couple of sessions, and the moves come ahead of an OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. Speaking of oil, DB’s analyst Michael Hsueh published an update yesterday (link here) where he argues that much will turn on the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. He writes that a temporary one-quarter production cut of 1 million barrels per day from January would be enough to return Brent back up to $90/bbl.
In the political sphere, there were some important fiscal policy headlines out of Europe yesterday. One was in the UK, where Prime Minister Sunak gave a very strong signal that tax cuts could well be included in tomorrow’s Autumn Statement. He said that now that inflation was halved, “we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax”, and he included tax cuts as one of his five long-term priorities. Separately in Germany, Bloomberg reported that they were exploring a major overhaul of its 2023 budget following the constitutional court’s ruling last week that they couldn’t use €60bn of unspent pandemic funds for an off-budget climate fund. European equities were little affected by the headlines though, and the STOXX 600 ended the day up +0.10%.
Asian equity markets are continuing the global gains this morning led by the Hang Seng (+1.00%), with the CSI (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%) also edging higher amid a rise in property stocks after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have drafted a list of 50 real estate firms who will be able to tap low-cost financing as the real estate industry remains in the doldrums. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.96%) is also higher while the Nikkei (+0.12%) is struggling to gain traction in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.13%) futures are slightly higher.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting indicated that the central bank opted to raise its key interest rate for the 13th time in the current cycle due to increased inflation risks along with stronger than expected performance of the economy. Also, the RBA Governor Bullock a cknowledged that inflation will remain a crucial challenge over the next one to two years. The Australian dollar is finding support from the hawkish minutes as the emphasis on fighting inflation keeps the odds of another hike in Q1 alive. As I type, the Australian dollar is trading +0.35% higher, standing at 0.658 against the dollar.
There was very little data yesterday, but we did get the Conference Board’s Leading Index for October from the US. That showed a -0.8% decline (vs. -0.7% expected ), which extends a run of declines that’s been ongoing since April 2022.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include Canada’s CPI for October. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s November meeting, and also hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Schnabel and Centeno, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, and US government auctions include a 2yr FRN and a 10yr TIPS auction .
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities trade with little direction, DXY lower, JPY & NZD bid; FOMC Minutes ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 06:25 AM
European bourses are mixed, waning off highs whilst US Futures trade with little direction
Bonds off best levels after having bounced following yesterday’s well-covered US supply
Dollar remains weaker; whilst the Kiwi outperforms owing to encouraging NZ trade data
Crude trims Monday’s gains while metals benefit from the Dollar pullback & strike action
Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index, US Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, Canadian CPI, NBH Policy Announcement, Fed Minutes, Canadian Fall Economic Update, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Supply from US, Earnings from NVIDIA Corp, Analog Devices, Best Buy & Autodesk.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C, with macro developments a touch light after Monday’s US-tech-led performance.
The FTSE 100 -0.5% is the standout laggard, amid GBP strength after BoE’s Bailey on Monday and reinforced by the Treasury Select Committee headlined by the BoE’s hawks.
Sectors are mixed overall: Retail names the relative outperformer amid numerous broker moves for UK firms, while Telecoms, Energy & Banks are the relative laggards.
Stateside, futures are flat/incrementally lower with the tone a tentative one before FOMC Minutes (early given Thanksgiving) for the November gathering, ES & NQ U/C.
Bonds hit buffers after early EU advances, but retain firm bid, Bunds hold within 131.17-130.82 range.
Gilts stay afloat of 97.00 following a pullback from 97.51 to 97.09 amidst hawkish BoE TSC testimony.
T-note sits tight between 109-01+/108-26+ band awaiting US national activity index, Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey and existing home sales ahead of FOMC minutes.
Crude benchmarks are softer, trimming Monday’s upside where the contract settled higher by over USD 1.70/bbl; action since has been more contained with specific developments light ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
Currently, WTI & Brent Jan’24 trade just below USD 77.50/bbl and USD 82.00/bbl respectively, towards the top-end of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is bid, benefitting from the softer USD and modest yield downside, with the yellow metal holding just shy of the USD 1990/oz mark and the session high above that.
Base metals continue the positive APAC tone with upside driven by the USD and an escalation of strike action at the Las Bambas mine in Peru.
Goldman Sachs said its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper cuts should not be ruled out given the fall in speculative positioning and time spreads, as well as higher-than-expected inventories.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas production in 2023 is to be 30bcm less than in 2022, according to Tass.
Iranian Oil Minister says production will reach 3.6mln BPD in March 2024 and aims for 4mln BPD for the next Iranian year.
IEA’s head of oil market says that even if OPEC+ oil production cuts are extended into 2024, IEA sees a slight surplus in the global market balance; says we are in a deficit now and all stocks are drawing at a fast rate.
Union at the MMG (1208 HK) Las Bambas mine in Peru is to go on indefinite strike beginning November 28th, according to the union secretary-general.
Codelco is to spend an extra USD 720mln overhauling its key copper mine with the Chuquicamata mine being converted from an open pit to an underground mine, according to Bloomberg.
BoE’s Ramsden (Text Release): “Given my assessment of the outlook and the risks I would not rule out having to raise Bank Rate further in the future but I will continue to make my decisions on a meeting to meeting basis.”
BoE’s Mann (Text Release): continue to see upside potential for sales and employment in the forward-looking business indicators, as well as continued strong wage and services price growth through next year at least.. “The appropriate path is one that exhibits a higher peak in Bank Rate, with an inversion later. In my view, this path would cement our commitment to the remit.” and “To me, the prospects for more persistent inflation imply a need for tighter monetary policy. While I acknowledge that the monetary policy stance has started becoming restrictive, it is so only recently and not by so much. Indeed, comparing August financial market data to the readings around the November MPR, financial conditions have in fact eased as Bank Rate hikes have paused.”
BoE’s Bailey reiterates that it’s sensible to keep rates where they are; the latest inflation data was largely as expected; inflation will end the year a little lower than BoE expected but not by much. Markets put too much weight on current data releases, BoE is concerned about potential inflation persistence. Markets underestimate the risk of inflation persistence. QT is only having a small impact on yields, possibly 10-15bps.. Adds. if we try to bring inflation back to the target faster by raising rates more now, that would push inflation below the target.
BoE’s Mann (Q&A): more tightness now is important in order to cement the commitment to the 2% inflation target.
BoE’s Ramsden (Q&A): BoE is very clear in distancing itself from market rate expectations.
BoE’s Haskel (Q&A): falling headline CPI not a good guide to inflation trend.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
EU is reportedly set to place France on a fiscal watch list which is scheduled for release today, according to Bloomberg.
German Economy Ministry spokesperson says the budget freeze is necessary for the situation and the government is working intensively on solutions.
NOTABLE DATA
UK PSNB, GBP (Oct) 13.972B GB (Prev. 13.526B GB, Rev. 13.718B GB); ONS says April-October borrowing of 98.3bln is 16.9bln less than the OBR forecast.
EU New Car Registrations (Oct): +14.6% Y/Y; battery electric 14.2% Y/Y market share; This marked the fifteenth consecutive month of growth, with notable double-digit percentage increases in three of the largest markets: France (+21.9%), Italy (+20%). Click here for more.
GEOPOLITICS
Hamas chief said that they are close to reaching a temporary ceasefire agreement and that Hamas delivered its response to Qatari officials, according to Reuters. Furthermore, a Hamas official noted that ongoing talks are about a temporary ceasefire for a number of days, arrangements for entry of aid into Gaza and a hostages-prisoners swap deal.
“Qatari government is expected to announce today that it will reach a deal for the release of the hostages. The source added that he hoped nothing would happen on the ground in the coming hours to thwart this”, according to a source cited by Axios’ Ravid. Subsequently, “As part of the hostage deal, a lull in the fighting in Gaza will be declared for four days, with the possibility of extending it for another two days.”, via Axios’ Ravid.
“Qatar reveals that Hamas hostage negotiations have reached the ‘closest point’ to the agreement”, according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP.
South Korea issued a sail warning following the recent notice by North Korea for a satellite launch and the South Korean Defence Ministry said it is watching North Korea’s satellite launch plan with the possibility it would succeed. Furthermore, South Korea’s military announced that US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson arrived at a South Korean port.
Israeli Officials says “There are some technical matters that must be worked on to complete the deal with Hamas “, via Al Arabiya
CRYPTO
US SEC sued Kraken for operating an online crypto trading platform without registering with the agency, according to a court filing.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the tech-led gains in the US where Microsoft shares climbed to a record high in otherwise quiet trade and with Chinese markets underpinned by property sector support.
ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in the mining and materials sectors atoned for the slack in tech and defensives but with gains limited after the hawkish undertones from the RBA Minutes.
Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction as headwinds from recent JPY strength were counterbalanced by the decline in JGB yields.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by support-related optimism in which the Hong Kong benchmark was led by property stocks to briefly above the 18,000 level after reports that China is drafting a “whitelist” of 50 developers for a financing boost, while China also asked government officials to increase financial support for the economy and looks to further bolster major strategies.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
PBoC reportedly encouraged some lenders to cap the amount of new loans they will issue in early 2024 and shift some of the loans forward to this year, according to Bloomberg. Subsequently, PBoC has reportedly told some banks to bring forward some of the loans and then intend to extend in early 2024 to later this year, via Reuters citing sources; a directive was reportedly issued earlier this week.
China’s major state-owned banks seen buying Dollars via onshore swaps and selling them in spot FX market this week, according to Reuters sources.
RBA Governor Bullock said she is increasingly optimistic about the labour market and noted that inflation is a crucial challenge over the next one or two years.
RBA November Meeting Minutes stated that they considered the case for raising rates or holding steady and the Board saw a credible case that a rate rise was not needed at the meeting but judged the case for hiking was the stronger one as inflation risk increased. RBA stated that whether further tightening is required would depend on data and assessment of risks, while it saw a risk that inflation expectations could increase if rates were not raised and noted is important to prevent even a modest further increase in inflation expectations. Furthermore, it stated that staff projections for inflation at the meeting assumed one or two more rate hikes and the Board noted the Cash Rate remained below rates in many other countries, as well as acknowledged that rising house prices could indicate that policy was not especially restrictive.
DATA RECAP
New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD)(Oct) -1.7B (Prev. -2.3B, Rev. -2.4B)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.39 PTS OR 0.01% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 44.18 PTS OR 0.25% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 33.89 PTS OR 0.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1387 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1386 /Oil UP TO 77.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.44/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
China’s share of the global economy is shrinking at the fastest pace. Huge problems with their real estate sector. Investors are pulling money out of China!
(Sharma/Rockefeller International)
China’s Share Of The Global Economy Is Shrinking At The Fastest Pace Since The Mao Era
MONDAY, NOV 20, 2023 – 10:55 PM
By Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International
In a historic turn, China’s rise as an economic superpower is reversing. The biggest global story of the past half century may be over.
After stagnating under Mao Zedong in the 1960s and 70s, China opened to the world in the 1980s — and took off in subsequent decades. Its share of the global economy rose nearly tenfold from below 2 per cent in 1990 to 18.4 per cent in 2021. No nation had ever risen so far, so fast.
Then the reversal began. In 2022, China’s share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17 per cent. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s.
These numbers are in “nominal” dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation’s relative economic strength. China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.
China’s decline could reorder the world. Since the 1990s, the country’s share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105tn. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent. Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.
Moreover, China’s slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China’s rise is reversing by Beijing’s own account.
One reason this has gone largely unnoticed is that most analysts focus on real GDP growth, which is inflation-adjusted. And by adjusting creatively for inflation, Beijing has long managed to report that real growth is steadily hitting its official target, now around 5 per cent. This in turn appears to confirm, every quarter, the official story that “the east is rising.” But China’s real long-term potential growth rate — the sum of new workers entering the labour force and output per worker — is now more like 2.5 per cent.
The ongoing baby bust in China has already lowered its share of the world working age population from a peak of 24 per cent to 19 per cent, and it is expected to fall to 10 per cent over the next 35 years. With a shrinking share of the world’s workers, a smaller share of growth is almost certain.
Further, over the past decade, China’s government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker. This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.
In nominal dollar terms, China’s GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994. Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely. China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.
Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12bn in the third quarter — the first such drop since records began. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too. Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.
China’s President Xi Jinping has in the past expressed supreme confidence that history is shifting in his country’s favour, and nothing can stop its rise. His meetings with Joe Biden and US chief executives at last week’s summit in San Francisco did hint at moderation, or at least a recognition that China still needs foreign business partners. But almost no matter what Xi does, his nation’s share in the global economy is likely to decline for the foreseeable future.
It’s a post-China world now.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HOUTHIS
Houthis say they’ll continue attacks until ‘demise of Israel’
The Houthis claimed that they were not acting under a directive by Iran when they seized the ship.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSNOVEMBER 20, 2023 22:09Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2023 02:02
A Houthi terrorist stands on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023.(photo credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
A member of the political bureau of the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist movement warned that his movement would continue its attacks until the “demise of Israel” after the Houthis seized the Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea on Sunday, in statements to the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV on Monday.
Ali Al-Qahhoum, a member of the Houthi’s political bureau, stated that the Houthis have been using drones and ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 2,000 km.
“We will not stand idly by in the face of the Zionist aggression against the Palestinian people and the international and American outcry in support of the entity,” said Qahhoum.
Another member of the Houthi’s political bureau, Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti, told Al-Jazeera that the terrorist group has “many options” to attack Israel if the war in Gaza doesn’t end, warning that the conflict would expand if the war continues.
Bukhaiti added that the Houthis were not acting under a directive by Iran and that the group was trying to distract Israel and relieve some of the pressure on Gaza. The senior Houthi member additionally stated that the movement is willing to confront the US as well.
Houthi terrorists open the door of the cockpit on the ship’s deck in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023 (credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
Deputy Chief of the Houthis’ General Staff, Maj.-Gen. Ali Hammoud Al-Mushki, warned that the terrorist movement would continue to attack targets both in Israel and outside of Israel. “We are with the Palestinian people, and as long as the Zionist enemy continues its crimes and killing the people of Palestine, we will continue to stand against the Zionist enemy.”
Houthis release footage showing seizure of cargo ship
Additionally on Monday, the Houthis released footage showing the seizure of the cargo ship.
The footage was released by the movement’s TV channel Al Masirah a day after the ship was hijacked by the Iran-backed group, who said the ship was linked to Israel. Israel, however, says the seized ship was British-owned and Japanese-operated.
The footage showed Houthi terrorists landing a helicopter on the ship and Houthi ships surrounding the vessel.
The owner of the Galaxy Leader said on Monday that the vessel was now in the Hodeidah port area in Yemen. “All communications were subsequently lost with the vessel,” Isle of Man registered Galaxy Maritime Ltd, owner of the pure car carrier Galaxy Leader, said in a statement.
“The company, as a shipping concern, will not be commenting further on the political or geopolitical situation.”
Two commercial ships that diverted their course in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were connected to the same maritime group whose vessel was seized by Yemen’s Houthis, according to shipping data and British maritime security company Ambrey.
US denounces seizure of cargo ship
The United States on Monday denounced the seizure of a cargo ship in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement as a violation of international law and demanded the immediate release of the vessel and its crew.
“The Houthi seizure of the motor vessel Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea is a flagrant violation of international law,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told a briefing.
“We demand the immediate release of the ship and its crew and we will consult with our allies and UN partners as to appropriate next steps.”
END
IRAN/HOUTHIS/
Herzog: Capture of ship by Houthis an attack on the international order
Herzog called the incident “further proof” that “Iran’s network of terrorism and chaos is threatening the world.”
The Bahamas-flagged Galaxy Leader cargo ship(photo credit: SCREENSHOT/VESSELFINDER)
The Iran-backed Houthi militia’s seizing of a merchant ship in international waters represents an attack “not just [on] Israel but the international order,” said President Isaac Herzog in a post on X Tuesday evening.
The Iran-backed militia, based in Yemen, captured the ship on Sunday, November 19. Some 25 crew members of different nationalities, including Ukrainians, Bulgarians, Filipinos, and Mexicans were onboard the ship. No Israelis were present on it.
The United States denounced the ship’s seizure as a breach of international law and demanded the immediate release of the vessels and its crew.
Herzog called the incident “further proof” that “Iran’s network of terrorism and chaos is threatening the world.” Israel’s president underscored that the Houthis “announced their intent ahead of time and publicized footage glorifying the attack.” The “international community,” Herzog charged, “watched and did nothing.”
A Houthi fighter stands on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023 (credit: Houthi Military Media/Reuters)
Herzog: Tehran is a “clear and present danger to all of us”
“The forces of chaos and barbarism which attacked Israel on October 7,” his post continued, “[are] violating not just our borders and our citizens but every norm dear to the civilized world,…not just Israel but the international order.”
“This new outrage,” he said, “should make clear to the world that the engine of evil and hate, the regime in Tehran, is a clear and present danger to all of us.”
“The international community must take forceful action to respond to this threat,” the post concluded. “All nations who value order and freedom must find their voice and act decisively – now.”
END
Houthi provocations will need to be dealt with – editorial
In the post-October 7 world, the Houthis have emerged not as some distant threat but as a real and immediate one. Now is the time to take action.
By JPOST EDITORIALNOVEMBER 21, 2023 06:06Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2023 06:10
Followers of the Houthi movement shout slogans during a gathering to show support to the movement outside the Presidential Palace in Sanaa(photo credit: REUTERS)
Until the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war, the Yemen-based, virulently antisemitic Houthis were a distant threat to most Israelis.
Most people had heard the Iran-backed Houthis in the context of the ongoing civil war in Yemen but did not pay them much attention.
With Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, and Iran keen on setting up bases for proxies in Syria, Israel had closer, more immediate threats to worry about.
That was the thinking pre-October 7. In the post-October 7 world, however, the Houthis have emerged not as some distant threat but as a real and immediate one.
Israeli soldier around the destruction caused by Hamas terrorists in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7, 2023, near the Israeli-Gaza border, in southern Israel, October 30, 2023 (credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Since the beginning of the war, the Houthis have fired cruise missiles and attack drones toward Israel that have been shot down by the IDF, the US, and, according to some reports, even once by Saudi Arabia.
On Sunday, the Houthis struck again, this time not with missiles or drones in the air, but at sea, by hijacking a cargo ship en route from Turkey to India via the Red Sea.
A British company with an Israeli partner owns the Japanese-operated, Bahamas-flagged ship. There were 25 crew members on the ship from the Philippines, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Romania, and Mexico – no Israelis.Advertisement
The Prime Minister’s Office released a carefully worded statement after the ship was seized.
“This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran’s aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes,” the statement read.
There were four key words in this statement: “Iranian terrorism” and “international consequences.”
It made clear that Israel does not believe the Houthis acted on their own. The hands that hijacked the ship might have been those of the Houthis, but the motivating force came from Iran.
The statement made clear that Israel holds Iran responsible, and expects the rest of the world to do the same.
The second part of the statement spoke of “international consequences.” With these words, Israel was saying that although the hijacking may have been aimed at Israel, it is not a localized Israeli problem.
Threats to free shipping on international waterways – piracy, pure and simple – are a threat to the free world with “international consequences,” not only to Israel.
The next move
So, what actions should be taken?
First, the world should let Tehran know that it is not fooled by its shell game and realizes it employs proxies to commit acts of terror, targets Israel, and disturbs the world order.
Secondly, the US should immediately place the Houthis back on its list of foreign terrorist entities.
In the last days of former president Donald Trump’s term in office, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo placed the Houthis on America’s foreign terrorist organization list, a list that has symbolic importance as well as practical significance: anyone providing material support to such an organization is committing a crime.
A month later, just a couple weeks after Joe Biden took over as the American president, the State Department took the Houthis off this list, arguing that their listing was making it difficult to get humanitarian aid to Yemen, which was in the grips of a devastating civil war.
That was only, apparently, part of the story. The move was also aimed at Saudi Arabia, which the Biden Administration entered office believing should be kept at arm’s length, and a positive signal to Iran, with whom the new administration was interested in reengaging in nuclear diplomacy.
Now is the time for the US to reclassify the Houthis as a terrorist organization. This characterization seems very apt for a group that sends cruise missiles and attack drones toward civilian populations and hijacks commercial shipping vessels.
Right now, the Houthis are acting with impunity. Reinstating them on this list signals there is a price for their actions.Israel, too, will eventually need to make the Houthis pay. The time to do this might not be now, in the midst of a full-scale war in Gaza, but it will come at a later date. Israel does not live in a neighborhood where enemies will refrain from attacking just because they are asked not to. A price needs to be extracted, but at a time and place and in a manner of Israel’s choosing.
According to senior Israeli officials, there is a strong possibility that the details of a hostage deal will be finalized in the coming hours, Israeli media reported.
The proposed agreement involved the release of approximately 50 Israeli children and their mothers in exchange for a four-day ceasefire. It will take place in a 1:3 format, three Palestinian prisoners for each hostage.
Under the terms of the deal, Hamas has committed to locating the remaining children and mothers. In return, Israel has agreed to release women and minors from Israeli prisons who were involved in acts of terror.
Additionally, both parties are expected to confirm the provision of fuel and monetary assistance in the Gaza Strip.
According to a CNN report, American officials hope that among the hostages that will be released is a 3-year-old American citizen.
END
Israeli official: Ceasefire to last five days, 40 children and 13 women to be released
By MAARIV ONLINENOVEMBER 21, 2023 16:23Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2023 16:33
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will last five days, and 40 child and 13 female hostages will be released from Hamas captivity, a political source stated on Tuesday.
For the first time of the Gaza conflict, both Israeli and Hamas sources agree that a major deal for the mass release of hostages is “closer than it has ever been” and is in the “final stages” – according to a US official cited in Reuters Tuesday.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has agreed that they are “close to reaching a truce agreement” with Israel, and an official with PM Netanyahu’s office said “An announcement of a deal may be imminent.” CNBC is citing the Israeli prime minister’s office as saying a deal has been reached.
Sources in Reuters indicated the pending deal is to include a multi-day pause in fighting, with a prisoner exchange potentially seeing Hamas release some 50 Israeli civilian hostages. The Israelis, for their part, are expected to free female and minor-ages Palestinians in its custody.
Since Oct.7, Hamas has demanded the release of several thousand Palestinians who have long been in Israeli custody, some of them without having ever been charged.
Netanyahu on Tuesday issued his most optimistic statements yet regarding a deal: “We are making progress on the release of the hostages. I hope we will have good news soon,” he told a group of military reservists.
He’s reportedly holding a series of urgent Cabinet meetings to mull the details of the pending deal…
Details reported by Axios based on diplomatic sources privy to the Qatar-mediated talks have been revealed:
In the first phase of the two-phase deal, Hamas is expected to release 50 Israeli women and children held in Gaza, while Israel is expected to release around 150 Palestinian prisoners, mostly women and minors. Some of the Israeli hostages are dual citizens.
The release of hostages and prisoners in the first phase of the deal would take place over four days of ceasefire in Gaza, one of the sources told Axios.
As part of the deal, Israel would allow around 300 aid trucks per day to enter Gaza from Egypt.
A potential second phase of the deal could see 50 more released, and the ceasefire would be extended for multiple more days, per Axios:
Israel would also release Palestinian prisoners at the same 3:1 ratio to the number of hostages freed.
While Tuesday has witnessed very optimistic international headlines and reporting, there have been several false starts concerning prior deals that proved premature, as the instance of a Washington Post story correction highlighted Monday.
developing…
END
THE DEAL:
Israel agrees to Sinwar demand; halt UAV intel for 6 hours a day for hostage release. The deal to release the hostages has the support of the IDF, Shin Bet, and the Mossad, and includes the release of about 140 security prisoners from Israeli prisons.By TAL SHALEV/WALLA
Hamas Gaza Chief Yahya Al-Sinwar gestures during an anti-Israel rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021(photo credit: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)
Israel has agreed to a condition laid out by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to halt Israeli UAVs in the Gaza airspace for six hours on each day of the ceasefire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages under Hamas’s captivity, according to a Tuesday report by Walla.
The condition’s implementation was addressed by an Israeli official who cited statements made by the IDF and Shin Bet, stating that they have intelligence-gathering capabilities even during the ceasefire days. “We will not be blind and we’ll know what’s happening on the ground,” the official said.
The deal for the hostages’ release that will be submitted to the government for approval includes the release of 50 Israeli children and women during a four-day ceasefire and includes the possibility of it being extended if Hamas locates additional women and children, with ten freed for each additional day of the ceasefire.
Total number of hostages freed may reach up to 80
It is estimated that the total of those freed may reach 70-80 women and children if Hamas does locate the hostages, as they claimed they do not know some of their locations.
“Hamas, as far as we are concerned, needs to bring the people back, including from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other elements,” said the official, also saying that Hamas should also release additional hostages with foreign citizenship, but not as part of the outline for the release of Israeli women and children.Israelis demand the release of hostages held in captivity by Hamas, Tel Aviv November 21, 2023 (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)
“Hamas, as far as we are concerned, needs to bring the people back, including from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other elements.”Israeli official
The deal to release the hostages has the support of the IDF, Shin Bet, and the Mossad, and includes the release of about 140 security prisoners from Israeli prisons. According to the official, Israel insisted that prisoners convicted of murder not be included in the list of those released. The outline also states that during the days of the ceasefire, Israel will allow more fuel to be brought into the Gaza Strip – however, the official made it clear that this is a relief that will only last during the ceasefire.
The deal to release the hostages was opposed by the Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit.Go to the full article >>
END
Hamas Expected To Release 50 Hostages Over 4-Day Ceasefire If Netanyahu Cabinet Approves
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 02:17 PM
Update(1417ET): Further details as reported in Israeli media, and as Netanyahu cabinet votes on approving the Qatar-mediated deal:
Government meets on proposed deal to release some 50 Israeli hostages over 4 days of ceasefire
Deal provides for more releases later
Palestinian prisoners to be freed, but not murderers
However, even if the deal does get approved, and it is expected to, Israel’s military is vowing this won’t hinder its goal of eradicating Hamas.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Tuesday, “The goal of returning the hostages is significant. Even if it results in the reduction of some of the other things, we will know how to restore our operational achievements.” He said this means the IDF will still focus on eliminating Hamas.
A Palestinian fighter of the Al-Quds brigades, the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), seen inside a military tunnel in Beit Hanun, in the Gaza Strip. May 18, 2022.(photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)
IDF soldiers in the Maglan unit has executed precision missile strikes and successfully confronted terrorist threats in the Gaza Strip, according to an IDF statement.
Solders employed cutting weaponry, including the Gil missile and the “Steel Trap” guided missile, marking its inaugural use in combat.
The Maglan unit’s primary mission involves the identification and elimination of enemy targets, coupled with seamless coordination between air, sea, and ground forces.
Targets destroyed above and underground
The fighters have located and destroyed over 70 targets, encompassing enemy observation posts, terrorist hideouts often embedded within civilian areas, rocket launchers, and terrorist cells. They have also successfully neutralized a number of terrorists.
In a recent ground operation within the Shati region of the northern Gaza Strip, Maglan fighters conducted a raid on a terrorist’s residence, revealing an extensive cache of weapons. The unit also searched a nearby school, uncovering two tunnel shafts.
The 162nd Division completely surrounded the Jabalya region of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, according to an IDF statement. The operation involved the elimination of terrorists, destruction of infrastructure, and preparation of the area for further offensive actions.
Artillery units from the 215th brigade and air strikes from the Air Force played a crucial role in the operation. They targeted terrorist objectives with the support of combat aircrafts.
Combat units from the 401st Division and the Nahal Brigade engaged with terrorists on the outskirts of Jabalya, using tanks and air support.
Combat units from the 551st Division, in coordination with special forces, operated from the north of Jabalya to open the path for the unit’s forces and thwart terrorist objectives in the area. They eliminated terrorists during the operation with aerial support, captured the enemy’s combat assets in several locations, including residential homes and children’s rooms, and destroyed tunnel shafts.
A Palestinian fighter of the Al-Quds brigades, the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), seen inside a military tunnel in Beit Hanun, in the Gaza Strip. May 18, 2022.(photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)
IDF soldiers in the Maglan unit has executed precision missile strikes and successfully confronted terrorist threats in the Gaza Strip, according to an IDF statement.
Solders employed cutting weaponry, including the Gil missile and the “Steel Trap” guided missile, marking its inaugural use in combat.
The Maglan unit’s primary mission involves the identification and elimination of enemy targets, coupled with seamless coordination between air, sea, and ground forces.
Targets destroyed above and underground
The fighters have located and destroyed over 70 targets, encompassing enemy observation posts, terrorist hideouts often embedded within civilian areas, rocket launchers, and terrorist cells. They have also successfully neutralized a number of terrorists.
In a recent ground operation within the Shati region of the northern Gaza Strip, Maglan fighters conducted a raid on a terrorist’s residence, revealing an extensive cache of weapons. The unit also searched a nearby school, uncovering two tunnel shafts.DF soldiers’ precision strikes eliminate terrorist threats in Gaza Strip, unveils hidden tunnels
Maglan fighters conducted a raid on a terrorist’s residence, revealing an extensive cache of weapons. They also found tunnels under a school.
A Palestinian fighter of the Al-Quds brigades, the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), seen inside a military tunnel in Beit Hanun, in the Gaza Strip. May 18, 2022.(photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)
IDF soldiers in the Maglan unit has executed precision missile strikes and successfully confronted terrorist threats in the Gaza Strip, according to an IDF statement.
Solders employed cutting weaponry, including the Gil missile and the “Steel Trap” guided missile, marking its inaugural use in combat.
The Maglan unit’s primary mission involves the identification and elimination of enemy targets, coupled with seamless coordination between air, sea, and ground forces.
Targets destroyed above and underground
The fighters have located and destroyed over 70 targets, encompassing enemy observation posts, terrorist hideouts often embedded within civilian areas, rocket launchers, and terrorist cells. They have also successfully neutralized a number of terrorists.
In a recent ground operation within the Shati region of the northern Gaza Strip, Maglan fighters conducted a raid on a terrorist’s residence, revealing an extensive cache of weapons. The unit also searched a nearby school, uncovering two tunnel shafts.
END
Operational Updates/Tuesday
Lt. Col Richard Hecht////
Last week Ishared a video of a child’s bedroom in Gazawhere Hamas was storing rockets. I’m disgusted (but not surprised) to say that IDF troops have again found weapons under a child’s bed – this is a anti-tank missile found under a crib.
Southern Front:
Over the last day, IDF aircraft struck approximately 250 Hamas terror targets. Among the targets struck were dozens of terrorists, rocket launchers, and other terrorist infrastructure.
IDF troops located a significant weapons stockpile in the residence of a senior Nukhba terrorist in the Gaza Strip.
Soldiers from the Combat Engineering, Infantry and Armored Corps of the 36th Division are fighting to defeat the ‘Zaytun’ Battalion of the Hamas terrorist organization.
The ‘Zaytun’ Battalion is one of Hamas’ main battalions operating in the area of Zaytun in Gaza City.
The troops have encountered an enemy that is entrenched in the heart of residential neighborhoods, hospitals, schools and kindergartens, and attacks from within civilian infrastructure.
Northern Front:
This morning, IDF aircraft identified and struck three armed terrorist cells in the area of the border with Lebanon. Aircraft also struck a number of Hezbollah terror targets, including military infrastructure and structures used for directing terrorist activity.
Three anti-tank missiles were fired from Lebanese territory toward Metula in northern Israel were identified. No injuries were reported. In response, IDF soldiers are striking toward the source of the fire in Lebanon.
Mortar shells were fired at an IDF post in northern Israel. No injuries were reported. IDF artillery struck the source of the fire
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Have we reached the end game?
Ukraine End Game: Putin & Medvedev Discuss Maps, Putting Kiev On The Menu
Putin and Medvedev recently made statements that took an expansive view of what “Russian lands” in Ukraine amounted to. At least as far as Putin is concerned, what he said at the November 3 meeting with members of the Civic Chamber is, philosophically, not all that different than the sort of historical observations Putin had made before.
Nevertheless, both Ukrainian Pravada and Alexander Mercouris regarded the Putin remarks as potentially significant, and Medvedev reiterating them would seem to confirm that take. And both suggested that Kiev might wind up as part of Russia.
From Medvedev, who loves trolling Western officials:
Now admittedly, Ukraine has plenty of reason to be jumpy, Putin was arguably just ringing the changes on favored themes before a relevant audience, and Medvedev was putting on his usual tough cop hat. Or perhaps both Russian leaders are trying to get Ukraine and the West to understand that Russia will control the end-game and reset their views as to what that could amount to.
Regardless of whether these remarks represent a meaningful shift, they serve as a reminder that Russia is on track to take a maximalist stance in terms of territorial acquisition. For instance, even Russia-friendly commentators wondered if Russia would take Odessa. Most now seem to see that as a given and are adding more sections of Ukraine as potential acquisitions. But as we flagged from the very outset, Russia could lose the peace by not coming up with a good solution as to what to do about Western Ukraine.
So does the renewed talk about Ukraine being an artificial construct carved out of Russia, and of Ancient Rus? Or is this just posturing, to make those paying attention less unhappy about the endgame, to act as if Russia has serious designs on parts of Western Ukraine so that when Russia integrates less into Russia, that the West can claim a face saving success?
Ukraine’s Appallingly Poor Prospects
Things are so bad it is hard to know where to begin.
Big Serge recently posted a fine, detailed account of why it was vanishingly unlikely that Ukraine would achieve its aims of pushing Russia back to Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Admittedly, hindsight is 20/20. At the start of the war, many thought, including many in Russia, that the shock and awe sanctions would cripple Russia, ideally lead to Putin’s ouster or at least severely destabilize Russian leadership, and undermine industrial, particularly military, output. The West also believed what is now clear was its own nonsense, that Russia had a poorly armed and led military, when it was was the US and NATO that had optimized their forces to fight insurgents, and had gotten very good at building super expensive, fussy weapons systems that didn’t necessarily perform all that well when tested. Even worse, it still has not been adequately acknowledged that Russia is ahead in many critical categories, such as air defense, hypersonic missiles, and signal jamming.
What is striking about the current state of play is not simply that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia, and it’s just a matter of time before Russia dictates terms, but that the Ukraine government is acting in ways that benefits the Russian military, to the destruction of what is left of its society and economy.
Militarily, Ukraine is approaching a catastrophic condition. That does not mean a collapse is imminent; key variables include whether the Ukraine military leadership revolts against Zelensky and how hard Russia pushes into growing Ukraine weakness. Russia may prefer to go slowly (mind you, it is making a concerted effort to crack the well fortified Avdiivka1), not just to reduce losses of its troops, but also to more throughly bleed out Ukraine and give the West time to adjust psychologically to Ukraine’s prostration.
Another factor that bears repeating is that Russia knows well this is a war against NATO. That will make the eventual defeat more consequential, even if the US and its minions come up with a face-saving pretense, like Putin was going march all the way to Paris (or Poland) and they succeeded in stopping that. That is one aspect that Big Serge gives short shrift: that this was a messy coalition war, which meant that for Ukraine to message success often trumped realistic assessments (how often was Russia just about to run out of missiles? Or having to raid washing machines for chips?). So not only were Ukraine’s backers not making enough weaponry to keep up with Russia’s output (which Russia then kept increasing), it was not the right equipment. Ukraine first stripped NATO cupboards bare of old Soviet style gear, which their troops were trained to handle. They then got a hodge podge of Western materiel, which they were often not well trained enough to handle proficiently, plus the mix of weaponry created a logistical nightmare. Scott Ritter argued that so many different types of equipment put Ukraine in a worse position.
And that’s before getting to poorly (barely) trained forces. Depending on how you are counting, Ukraine is on its third or fourth army. A recent story in Time Magazine serves as one-stop shopping for the deteriorating state of its forces and its difficulty in replenishing losses. The average age at the start of the war (30 to 35, due in part to a demographic dearth of men in their 20s) is now up to 43. And:
Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.
The decision was intended to signal his commitment to fighting graft. But the move backfired, according to the senior military officer, as recruitment nearly ground to a halt without leadership. The fired officials also proved difficult to replace, in part because the reputation of the draft offices had been tainted. “Who wants that job?” the officer asks. “It’s like putting a sign on your back that says: corrupt.”
A new CNN article also discusses Ukraine’s manpower problems, but weirdly tries to spin Ukraine as having headroom by not having yet gone to full conscription. But it does point out that Ukraine has imposed martial law and restricts travel
Ukraine’s military was about 15% female as of 2020, and recent rule changes allowed for conscription of women with medical and pharmacy training, so recent claims that Ukraine is conscripting women look largely to be misrepresentations of existing policy. However, it may still be that Ukraine is using more women in combat roles of late: Dima of Military Summary reported this week of seeing a video of a trench with dead women soldiers in it.
Experts have argued that even with diminishing levels of equipment and shells, that absent a revolt or surrender by the military, Ukraine could keep up a fight for a while. The West, after all, is probably capable of sending in materiel at some level. But the manpower, particularly trained manpower, problem is only going to get worse. And it’s now acknowledged in the Western press as pretty bad.
There’s been much less discussion of the Ukraine economy, which is set to go off a more dramatic cliff than its combat capability. Western journalists go almost entirely to Kiev, and then likely only near government buildings and foreign-official venues (tony restaurants) and so have little feel for day to day life. The reporters who do venture further afield are going mainly to combat areas. We need to do a bit more digging and give a fuller report, but it doesn’t take a lot of effort to work out that the near and long-term prospects for Ukraine are terrible, and it was staring out as the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe.
Ukraine is facing a demographic disaster, as Moon of Alabama and others have chronicled. It already had a dearth of young adults due to a birth collapse (similar to what Russia suffered) in the 1990s. It’s no secret that many Ukrainians have fled for Europe and the majority are not expected to come back. Moreover, that population is also likely to skew young. Douglas Macgregor had said that his sources estimate that Ukraine is down from a pre-war population of 43 million to 19 million in the territories the government in Kiev controls. And the scuttlebutt is Zelensky, to keep the fight up, is looking to or has actually started throwing more young people into the meat grinder, by tightening up on essential employment and college exemptions.
And keep in mind that Ukraine is also suffering a high level of debilitation among war survivors. The Wall Street Journal reported months ago that orders for prosthetics might be as high as 50,000. That was before the famed counteroffensive got going.
As we pointed out and the Western press has also been acknowledging, Ukraine has not done a very good job of repairing its grid after the Russian attacks last fall and winter, to the degree it may fall over in certain areas under higher winter loads. Some sources have suggested the repair funds were partly looted. That may be true. But we’ve also pointed out that Ukraine is using Soviet gear and has been exhausting stocks of spared among former Warsaw Pact members. No one is going to set up new factories to do a very large but limited run of various components for Ukraine’s rebuilding. That means that any of the areas that have suffered critical damage that can no longer get replacements from the West will find Russia controls their reconstruction.
Ukraine tax receipts have collapsed as defense spending has spiked. Ukraine projected a budget deficit of $38 billion in March. Given optimistic assumptions about its super duper counteroffensive, one has to think that forecast was similarly optimistic. Set that against two stopgap spending bills with no Ukraine funding and Europe saying loudly that it can’t fill the US money gap. I have no idea what the lag is between allocation approvals and cash actually arriving in Ukraine official coffers, but one would have to think the US till is about to be emptied. And Ukraine will crash from its already fallen level of functioning. In Russia even during its mass privatizations, loss of services and economic/demographic decline, some critical public servants kept working for no or little compensation. Putin made a point of giving teachers their back pay in his early years as President. How much social cohesion is there in Ukraine, particularly after so many have already abandoned it?
Also keep in mind Ukraine had a nominal GDP in 2022 of $160 billion on a nominal basis, nearly $380 billion on a PPP basis. Those figures are likely exaggerated by including the parts of Ukraine that voted to join Russia. So even looking at these results in the most generous way possible, Ukraine is running a deficit of 10% of GDP, when it already has inflation of 30%.
Big deficits after a sudden reduction of productive capacity is a textbook prescription for hyperinflation.
We’ve also pointed out the Western reconstruction talk was a bunch of hooey, since private sector types do infrastructure deals only as exercises in looting (we’ve posted on how new-build deals go bankrupt). So at best, this initiative was set to be an exercise in strip mining what was left of Ukraine. That’s now been indirectly confirmed by the reconstruction czar Penny Pritzker herself. From Ukrainska Pravda via Yahoo in Imagine there may be no help: conclusions of US Special Representative’s visit to Ukraine:
Penny Pritzker, US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Recovery, has suggested that officials imagine how the country could survive economically without US aid during her first visit to Ukraine….
Ukrainska Pravda stated that her first visit to Ukraine had left “a rather disturbing aftertaste in many government offices” here.
One of the sources, familiar with the course of Pritzker’s meetings, said that she tried to “lead [them] to the idea” of how Ukraine could survive economically without American aid.
Quote from the source: “At the meetings, Penny tried to get people to think, like, let’s imagine that there is no American aid: what do you need to do over the next year to make sure that your economy can survive even in this situation? And it really stressed everyone out.”
More details: Andrii Hunder, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, told Ukrainska Pravda that Pritzker’s main question during her visit and meetings with businesses was “What hinders success and who hinders it?”
The UP article reads that perhaps the strongest concern among most people who interacted with Biden’s representative was her call not to wait for Western assistance, but to seek areas of growth as if it wouldn’t be coming.
Does the Russian Map Talk Represent New Thinking About the End Game?
John Mearsheimer has argued that Russia wants a dysfunctional rump Ukraine. The same way the US, NATO and Ukraine obliged Russia’s war of attrition game plan by continuing to throw ever weaker forces against Russian lines, so to have they managed to do even more damage to Ukraine’s economy that the war already would have done by pumping up the military and government with support it could not maintain for the long haul, and then withdrawing it abruptly.
However, even though Russia looks like it will eventually impose its will on Ukraine, Russia still faces constraints. The more of Ukraine Russia decides to incorporate, the more it will have to rebuild. Those efforts would compete with another Putin initiative, announced early in the SMO, of greatly improving public amenities in remote areas (I envision manufacturing and mining towns in the hinterlands). Russia is also already facing labor shortages. To some degree, it might be able to redeploy men now working in manufacturing, particularly arms related, to reconstruction. But Russia may face labor constraints on how quickly it can restore infrastructure and buildings.
Putin and his inner circle likely also recognize the risk and cost of tying to hold areas where Russia is not welcome. Putin even said words to that effect early on. Putin also seems to value referendums as validating integrating territory into Russia. These would argue, all things being equal, for limiting the parts of Ukraine that are candidates for integration to ones with a solidly ethnic Russian majority.
To look at an overlapping set of consideration, ever since the Munich Security Conference, Putin has been trying to get a hostile Europe and US to acknowledge and respect Russia’s security needs. So what territorial end state is optimal, or alternatively, the least bad compromise, particularly given that ex Hungary and Belarus, Russia would continue to have hostile neighbors to its west?
This is why both Putin and Medvedev suggesting Kiev might be part of the equation would seem to be a significant shift. There are lots of maps of electoral results that Western pundits have used as proxies for ethnic Russian versus ethnic Ukrainian representation. This one from the Washington Pos is indicative. You can see Kiev is most assuredly in a European-leaning part of the country, as if that were in doubt:
But in Putin’s November 3 speech, he described long form as to how Russia has claims on “Ancient Rus” and that would seem to include Kiev2:
Contrast this with Medvedev’s not-exactly-a-joke earlier proposal:
Admittedly, Putin has said repeatedly, such as in his 2021 article, On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and the recent divisions were engineered to facilitate control. But it’s going to be hard to put the discord genie back in the bottle.
One guess is that Russia has decided it eventually has to take, or ideally, find some other way to subdue Kiev as the administrative center of Ukraine. But what does it do then? Even if Russia is able to create a puppet state, how does it exercise enough control without it becoming a governance and financial albatross? Remember, Kiev is a physically sprawling city of 3 million, straddling the Dnieper. It would be hard to secure it against the will of its inhabitants….unless, say, even more could be encouraged to decamp.
But it seems any other way, with rump Ukraine entering into some sort of victor’s peace with Russia, is ripe for the West trying to undo that. Perhaps (as we and John Helmer have suggested) Russia creates a particularly impoverished and very low population buffer zone (one way is by de-electrifying it) as a DMZ of sorts.
Again, at a minimum Russia’s leadership recognizes it has ever more degrees of freedom in terms of what Ukraine’s end state might be. And I may not be imaginative enough. But I don’t see how things have gotten much better regarding the potentially festering problem of western Ukraine. Perhaps there have been better remedies bandied about by Russian pundits and pols that have not gotten coverage here. Any reader intel or informed speculation very much welcomed.
* * *
1 Even so, some regular military commentators take note of the fact that Russia has a potential cauldron here but does not seem to be working hard to close it. They speculate that Russia is leaving it open to allow Ukraine to feed yet more men and material into this fire, just as they did in Bakhmut. As Big Serge points out:
We need to think about that initial Russian assault in the context of the Avdiivka battlespace. Avdiivka is rather unique in that the entire city and the railway running towards it sit upon an elevated ridge. With the city now enveloped on three sides, remaining Ukrainian logistical lines run along the floor of a wetland basin to the west of the city – the only corridor that remains open. Russia now has a position on the dominating heights that directly overlook the basin, and are in the process of expanding their position along the ridge. In fact, contrary to the claim that the Russian assault collapsed with heavy casualties, the Russians continue to expand their zone of control to the west of the railway, have already breached the outskirts of Stepove, and are pushing into the fortified trench network in southeastern Avdiivka proper.
Now, at this point it’s probably rational to want to compare the situation to Bakhmut, but the AFU forces in Avdiivka are actually in a much more dangerous position. Much was made of so-called “fire control” during the battle for Bakhmut, with some insinuating that Russia could isolate the city simply by firing artillery at the supply arteries. Needless to say, this didn’t quite pan out. Ukraine lost plenty of vehicles on the road in and out of Bakhmut, but the corridor remained open – if dangerous – until the very end. In Avdiivka, however, Russia will have direct ATGM line of sight (rather than spotty artillery overwatch) over the supply corridor on the floor of the basin. This is a much more dangerous situation for the AFU, both because Avdiivka has the unusual feature of a single dominating ridge on the spine of the battlespace, and because the dimensions are smaller – the entire Ukrainian supply corridor here runs along a handful of roads in a 4 kilometer gap.
2 From Putin’s remarks at the November 3 meeting:
First of all, we all know very well – these are the facts of history – that all, as you said, the South Russian lands were given to the Soviet Ukraine during the formation of the Soviet Union.
There was no Ukraine as part of the empire, there were regions, and it came in the 16th century, Ukraine, consisted of three regions: Kiev and the Kiev region, Zhitomir, Chernigov – that’s all. It came from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, from Poland voluntarily. We have a letter in our archives – I have already mentioned it – we, the Russian Orthodox people, appeal to Moscow, to the Tsar, and so on. In an attempt to defend our rights, we addressed the same letter to Warsaw: we, the Russian Orthodox people, ask to preserve this and that, demand, and so on.
Then what happened happened. They started to form the Soviet Union and created a huge Ukraine, and primarily and to a large extent at the expense of the South Russian lands – all the Black Sea region and so on, although all these cities, as we know, were founded by Catherine the Great after a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire.
Ok, so it happened, modern Russia came to terms with it after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But when they started to exterminate everything Russian there – that is, of course, extreme. And in the end they declared that Russians are not an indigenous nation in these lands – it is a complete outrage, you know? And at the same time, they also started exterminating Russians in Donbas to the applause of the West.
As it turned out that, although they signed the so-called Minsk agreements for a peaceful settlement with us, they were not going to honour them, as it turned out later, and moreover, they publicly refused to honour them at all. And they also started dragging this entire territory into NATO – brazenly, without heeding any of our protests, without paying attention to our position, as if we did not exist at all. This is what lies at the centre of the conflict that is taking place today. This is the cause of this conflict.
END
USA admits that the war with Russia is over as they cannot win
(zerohedge)
US Mission To NATO Signals Zelensky Must Sit At “Negotiating Table” In First
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 12:15 PM
In yet another major indicator and sign that Washington policy has drastically change, after it’s become clear that Ukraine’s forces won’t be able to push back Russia from the frontlines and with most of the Donbas firmly under Russian control, the US Mission to NATO has published the following message…
The official X account of the US Mission to NATO wrote Monday, “In this tough and dynamic battle, Ukraine’s soldiers are fighting bravely every single day, and they continue to inspire the world with their bravery and courage.”
“We will continue to support them to be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table when the time comes,” the statement said.
This marks a drastic shift in public messaging. Up to a short while ago, the Biden administration had essentially banished the words “negotiating table” from its public discourse.
Journalist Glenn Greenwald has commented of this narrative shift: “The West is now telling Zelensky, more or less explicitly and right out in the open: time to wrap this up.”
This significant difference in public rhetoric has also begun to appear more and more in mainstream media, which has also very belatedly reflected the American public’s ‘war fatigue’ – which was already setting in even before Ukraine’s much-vaunted early summer attempt at a counteroffensive…
It’s widely believed that talks could already quietly be happening, and that Washington is finally pressuring the Zelensky government to find compromise.
“U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions,” an early November report in NBC said. “The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said.”
Certainly, at the very least this will include Kiev permanently giving up any future claims on Crimea. But the question of the four annexed territories is what will determine whether a peace deal is reached or not.
END
IRAN/USA (HOUTHIS)
the weak USA mulls placing the Houthi on terror designation? Biden is so so tough!!
(zerohedge)
US Says Iran Complicit In Ship Hijacking By Yemeni Rebels, Mulls Houthi Terror Designation
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 03:07 PM
Update(1507ET): The Biden White House is threatening to slap an official terror designation on Yemen’s Houthi militia after it seized an Israel-linked cargo vessel in the Red Sea (details below).
On Tuesday, as 25 international crew are still being held hostage after Houthi militants boarded the vessel by helicopter Sunday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters that “in light of … the piracy of a ship in international waters, we have begun a review of potential terrorist designations and we’ll be considering other options together with our allies and partners as well.”
Importantly, Kirby also directly alleged that Iran was complicit. The Houthis have expressly said that the seizure was in retaliation for Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, which has killed some 13,000 Palestinians – mostly civilians. Per a White House press briefing:
Mr Kirby added that Iran was “complicit in its material support, and encouragement of the Houthi forces” and called on the group to “unconditionally” release the ship and its crew.
The Houthis earlier this month declared war on Israel, and have sent several drones and missiles toward southern Israel at this point. At least two of these projectiles have been intercepted by warships stationed in the Red Sea.
* * *
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have released dramatic video of their Sunday hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, a vehicle-transport ship whose owner is a subsidiary of a company owned by an Israeli billionaire.
The Red Sea incident received surprisingly little initial coverage by major media, considering it marked the opening of a new, maritime front in the multilateral regional conflict that erupted on Oct 7, when Palestinian Hamas militants invaded southern Lebanon, killing more than a thousand Israeli civilians and soldiers.
“The detention of the Israeli ship is a practical step that proves the seriousness of the Yemeni armed forces in waging the sea battle, regardless of its costs and costs,” said Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul-Salam in a separate online statement. “This is the beginning.” About a fifth of the world’s oil must traverse the narrow strait between Yemen and Djibouti.
The professionally-produced, nearly four-minute Houthi video appears to have been shot from multiple cameras in the air and on the sea, including one mounted on the tail of a helicopter used to airlift the attackers onto the ship and others worn by the militants in action.
It first shows a helicopter pursuing the 600-foot ship as it plows through the sea. Houthis then dismount the chopper atop the ship’s deck, fire AK-47 rifles and make their way to the ship’s bridge, where crew members surrender to them. In the final shot, the ship moving through the water, surrounded by several small watercraft.
Maritime security company Ambrey tells the Times of Israel that the helicopter air assault tactic mirrors similar seizures perpetrated by Iran. The Houthis have declared themselves part of an “axis of resistance” against the Zionist state.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office characterized the hijacking as “an Iranian attack.”Iran distanced itself from the incident. “We have repeatedly announced that the resistance groups in the region represent their countries and make decisions and act based on the interests of their countries,” said the foreign ministry’s Nasser Kanani.
It appears there are no Israeli citizens on the ship,which was headed from Turkey to India. The crew includes Ukrainians, Bulgarians, Filipinos, Mexicans and a Romanian, The Timesreports. The seized ship is operated by a Japanese company, Nippon Yusen. Japan’s foreign minister says his diplomats are in direct contact with the Houthis, while also “urging Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran, and other countries concerned to strongly urge the Houthis for the early release of the vessel and crew members.”
The Galaxy Leader is ultimately owned by Ray Car Carriers, which was founded by Abraham “Rami” Ungar. With an estimated 2019 net worth of more than $2 billion, he’s among Israel’s 30 wealthiest individuals. According to wiretaps, Ungar was involved in scheme in which he’d pay an employee of then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert $10,000 a month in exchange for her refusal to testify against Olmert.
In a sign that cargo shipping could be significantly disrupted by the Houthi hijacking and their open-ended threat for more to come, two ships affiliated with the same maritime group — the Glovis Star and Hermes Leader — changed course on Sunday,Reuters reported Monday night.
Ships navigating between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and then the Indian Ocean must cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait.Its name translates to “Gate of Grief.” The waterway is only 20 miles wide, divided into two channels — one is 2 miles wide; the other, 16.
With its multiple “first-person shooter” perspectives, the Houthi video led many people to think it must be fake…
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
ROBERT H:
Top FDA Officials Accepted Jobs with Moderna After Playing Key Roles in the Licensure of COVID-19 Vaccines | The Epoch Times
How can this organization be trusted to act for the public good? Everything is compromised.
(mainly military aged males ‘added’) under the pretence of high-minded liberal values, has become a runaway (deadly) phenomenon threatening the very political order that authored it
Some valued readers objected to my remark in yesterday’s post that the political establishment appear “completely powerless” to stop migration. They point out that the importation of foreign political clients furthers elite interests and suggest that the present wave of mass migration is desired, perhaps even deliberately engineered. Now that my interne…
EXPOSE did a good job in this piece too showing that 94% of COVID-19 Deaths over past year were among Quadruple Vaccinated (2 of primary series and 2 boosters) between 1st June 2022 and 31st May 2023
‘The Office for National Statistics recently published an update on deaths by vaccination status in England and it has shockingly revealed that the vaccinated population accounted for 95% of COVID-19 deaths in the 12 months between 1st June 2022 and 31st May 2023, and 94% of those deaths were among either the triple or quadruple vaccinated population.
The dataset was published recently by the UK Government department known as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and it can be found on the ONS website here, or downloaded here.
and its efficacy’; excellent sharing by Varkel! The Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine has been branded “defective” in a multi-million pound landmark legal action; Not only the mRNAs were deadly!
‘The Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine has been branded “defective” in a multi-million pound landmark legal action that will suggest claims over its efficacy were “vastly overstated”.
The pharmaceutical giant is being sued in the High Court in a test case by Jamie Scott, a father-of-two who suffered a significant permanent brain injury that has left him unable to work as a result of a blood clot after receiving the jab in April 2021. A second claim is being brought by the widower and two young children of 35-year-old Alpa Tailor, who died after having the jab made by AstraZeneca, the UK-based pharmaceutical giant.
It seems the only ones rallying to Hamas barbarism is the American and British media and the Hamas Caucus of the US House of Representatives, the Squad!!!!!! (MRR)
Last week, the New York Times offered a long piece on why Hamas had chosen to attack Israel on Oct. 7 (aside from the sheer pleasure of raping and killing Jews). As is so often the case, the simplest answer appears right: Hamas’s leaders felt marginalized as Israel moved towards peace deals with Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. They wanted to remi…
‘Last week, the New York Times offered a long piece on why Hamas had chosen to attack Israel on Oct. 7 (aside from the sheer pleasure of raping and killing Jews).
Armed Thug Kills Four in Multi-Location Rampage – Media BlackoutREAD MORE…LATEST NEWS:WEF Plans to Bankrupt 30,000 Farmers, Trigger Global FamineRead more…Mike Lee ROASTS Liz Cheney After Jan. 6 Footage ReleasedRead more…Oregon Dem candidate exposed for being BDSM dominatrix now using her Playboy page in campaignRead more…Gavin Newsom Gave Millions to Anti-Semitic Groups Tied to HamasRead more…BREAKING NEWS: Trump Scores Massive Endorsement From Key Republican GovernorRead more…Rosalynn Carter, mental health activist, humanitarian and former first lady, dies at 96Read more…WATCH: NBC Hosts Bewildered By President Trump’s Lead In New 2024 PollsRead more…Backdoor Gun Grab: Congressional Dems Push Background Checks on Ammo Purchases, Seek to Criminalize Middlemen BuyersRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0945 UP 0.0001
USA/ YEN 147.63 DOWN 0.754 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2534 UP 0.0026
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3719 DOWN 7 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 0.39 PTS OR 0.01%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 44.18 PTS OR 0.25%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 28% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 44.18 PTS OR 0.25%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.39 PTS OR 0.01%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.28%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 33.89 PTS OR 0.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1988.05
silver:$23.59
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.21 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1375
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1406)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.77 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.699…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.397% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.564 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.868 DOWN4 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 18.53 POINTS or 0.28%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 6.98 PTS OR 0.04%
Paris CAC CLOSED down 20.81 PTS OR 0.29%
Spain IBEX DOWN 11.20 PTS OR 0.11%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 370.03 PTS OR 1.25%
WTI Oil price 77.55 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.79 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 87.86; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 53//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5515 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1295 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0916 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2536 UP .0036 or 36 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1730% UP 6 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .698%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.29 DOWN 0.091 //YEN UP 9 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3700 DOWN 0.0026 CDN dollar UP 26 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 77.87
Brent OIL: 82.46
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.411%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.573%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.881 %
USA dollar index: 103.46 UP 14 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.78 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 87.86 UP 1 AND 53/100 roubles
GOLD 1999.30 3:30 PM
SILVER: 23,79 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 62.75 PTS OR 0.18%
NASDAQ DOWN 93.44 PTS OR 0.58%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.28 DOWN 0.13 PTS (0.97)%
GLD: $185.35 UP 1.98 OR 1.08%
SLV/ $21.77 UP .29 OR 1.35%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bonds & Bullion Bid On Bad Data As Banks & Big-Tech Give Back Gains
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Add the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales to the list of disappointing macro data recently, and the soft-landing (or even goldilocks) narratives are starting to sound like a fairy tale…
Source: Bloomberg
Financial Conditions continue to loosen dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were mixed with a steepening bias (2Y -3bps, 30Y unch), which recoupled yesterday’s flattening…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were lower, given back much of yesterday’s gains with Small Caps the biggest loser (red on the week)…
Yesterday’s squeezed-stocks reversed their gains today…
Source: Bloomberg
Mega-Cap tech erased much of yesterday’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Banks gave back recent gains, back to one-week lows…
VIX continued to decline today (to 131.13) as Skew hit a record low. SDEX index (in red), measures the value of a 1-month at-the-money SPY put, vs a 1-month “one standard deviation out-of-the-money” put, reflects put prices are sliding markedly lower.
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rebounded during the US session today to end marginally higher (after 6 down day in the last 7)…
Source: Bloomberg
It was a choppy day in crypto-land amid headline about DoJ freezing some Tether holdings and the Binance settlement. BTC tumbled to $36.300 before bouncing back up to $37,500 and settling around $37,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices topped $2000 once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were flat on the day, with WTI hovering around $78
And finally, of course, NVDA reports tonight..
Source: Bloomberg
What happens next?
EARLY MORNING TRADING//the clowns on K street report:
‘Hawkish’ FOMC Minutes: Warn On Fading Consumer, Financial System Stability Risks
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 02:05 PM
Since the last FOMC meeting, on November 1st, the dollar has tumbled over 3% sending stocks, bonds, and bitcoin all higher (and gold, though only marginally)…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-change expectations have shifted significantly more dovish with more rate-cuts priced-in sooner in 2024 (with nearly 100bps of cuts priced-in for next year)…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) has flattened (re-inverted) dramatically too…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps most notably, since The Fed highlighted the fact that the market “was doing its job” (by tightening financial conditions), US macro data has serially disappointed and financial conditions have loosened dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
The point of all that is to suggest the market is now convinced The Fed is done hiking (and just as convinced they will start cutting soon) and so today’s Minutes will be analyzed for any insights into that narrative.
The problem – of course – is that the Minutes are stale and have missed significant events from the macro side (soft payrolls and CPI data for example); and as a reminder, Powell, speaking around a week after the FOMC meeting, struck a more hawkish tone, and said that although progress had been made on inflation, there was still a “long way to go”.
Additionally, FedSpeak has been hawkish since The Minutes: Applying Bloomberg Economics’ natural language processing model to Fedspeak, recent committee statements still indicate a hawkish tilt — though moving toward neutral.
This primarily reflects members seeking to transmit caution and convey a higher-for-longer stance.
So, what do The Minutes show?
These are the key takeaways from minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting:
“All” officials supported the decision to hold the benchmark rate in a 5.25%-5.5% target range, indicating the broader 19-member Federal Open Market Committee was also united, in addition to the 12-0 decision among voting members.
The minutes also make it clear that even if the Fed isn’t hiking, policymakers want to keep rates high until they are convinced inflation is under control.
Policymakers agreed that the Fed “was in a position to proceed carefully” on whether to hike again and should condition further tightening on whether sufficient progress has been made in bringing down inflation
All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks.
All officials judged it would be appropriate to keep rates at a level restricting the economy “for some time until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably” toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal
In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to judge that it was critical that the stance of monetary policy be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time.
A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted.
Most policymakers saw the risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.
“The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the baseline projection as considerable. Risks around the inflation forecast were seen as skewed to the upside, given the possibility that inflation could prove to be more persistent than expected or that further adverse shocks to supply conditions might occur.
Should these upside inflation risks materialize, the response of monetary policy could, if coupled with an adverse reaction in financial markets, tilt the risks around the forecast for economic activity to the downside.”
Fed staff expected below-potential growth over next two years with a slowing business sector:
A few participants commented that their business contacts had reported that cost increases could not be easily passed on to customers.
Several participants noted that an increasing number of District businesses were reporting that higher interest rates were affecting their businesses or that firms were increasingly cutting or delaying their investment plans because of higher borrowing costs and tighter bank lending conditions.
A few participants noted that the tighter financial and credit conditions could be particularly challenging for small businesses.
A few participants observed that higher interest rates were also affecting the agricultural sector, with their contacts noting that high financing costs were likely weighing on purchases of heavy agricultural equipment.
Regarding the energy sector, a few participants observed that energy markets had calmed after significant volatility at the start of the current armed conflict between Israel and Hamas.
…and warns on the fading consumer:
Some participants remarked that the finances of some households—especially those in the low- and moderate-income categories—were increasingly coming under pressure amid high prices for food and other essentials as well as tight credit conditions.
Several participants added that delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards had risen for these households
Some participants commented that their District contacts reported a somewhat weaker picture of consumer demand than indicated by the incoming aggregate data.
A few participants observed that activity in the housing sector had flattened out in recent months, likely reflecting the effects of further increases in mortgage rates from already elevated levels.
Reiterating comments from the press conference, the minutes also discussed the tightening of financial conditions (although, of course, as we detailed above, conditions have loosened dramatically since).
Credit continued to be generally available to businesses, households, and municipalities. Total core loans on banks’ books continued to increase in the third quarter, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year.
However, smaller firms were finding it harder to obtain credit, with the share of small firms reporting in September that it was more difficult to obtain credit compared with three months earlier rising from an already elevated level.
Capital market financing continued to be available, although issuance in most markets was below typical levels.
Finally, Fed staff continue to see notable risks to the stability of the financial system, noting that “valuations in equities, housing, and CRE were high.”
But of course, as we noted above, this was before the soft jobs and CPI data.
Read the full Minutes below:rubbish
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
Economy continues to crash:
(zerohedge)
Existing Home Sales Crash To Slowest Since 2010, Hit Record Low In The West
Sales actually fell 4.1% MoM (far worse than expected and down for the 20th time in the last 23 months) with September’s 2.0% MoM decline revised even lower to -2.2% MoM. That decline left existing home sales down 14.6% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The total existing home sales SAAR plunged to 3.79mm – the lowest since the tax credit expired in Aug 2010…
Source: Bloomberg
Sales fell in three of four regions, while they were unchanged in the Midwest. They hit a record low in the West and matched an all-time low in the Northeast
Finally, the percentage of homes that are vacant fell to the lowest level on record in August, and ticked up only slightly in September…
Ever the optimistic,Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, suggested that:
“Fortunately, mortgage rates have fallen for the third straight week, stirring up buying interest,” adding “though limited now, expect housing inventory to improve after this winter and heading into the spring.”
Good luck with that idea Larry!
Yun added that nearly a third of homes sold above their list price, indicating that multiple offers are still occurring with the median selling price climbed 3.4% from a year earlier to $391,800, the highest for any October in data back to 1999.
Even though the number of homes for sale ticked up from a month earlier to 1.15 million, it’s still the lowest for any October in the series.
Finally, first-time buyers made up a historically low 28% of purchases in October
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
This is a huge story: Musk suing Media Matters and Texas AG is looking for potential fraud
(zerohedge)
“Don’t Be Manipulated, Stand With X” – As Elon Promised, X Files Suit Against Media Matters
The Office of the Attorney General (“OAG”) is opening an investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity.
Under the Texas Business Organizations Code and the Deceptive Trade Practices Act, the OAG will vigorously enforce against nonprofits who commit fraudulent acts in or affecting the state of Texas.
Attorney General Paxton was extremely troubled by the allegations that Media Matters, a radical anti-free speech organization, fraudulently manipulated data on X.com (formerly known as Twitter).
“We are examining the issue closely to ensure that the public has not been deceived by the schemes of radical left-wing organizations who would like nothing more than to limit freedom by reducing participation in the public square,” said Attorney General Paxton.
* * *
Early Saturday morning, Elon Musk posted that his social media platform X will be “filing a thermonuclear lawsuit” against left-leaning non-profit Media Matters and “all those who colluded” for “completely misrepresenting” the real user experience on X.
Musk added that X would file the lawsuit on Monday (today), which prompted even more malarkey on X as the day wore on with so many pro-censorship leftists clinging to the hope that Musk was not going to follow-through, with one CNBC reporter going so far as claiming “Musk may have been lying, like he has done before.”
Well, he wasn’t lying, and time’s up for the Media Matters manipulators…
The lawsuit, just filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas Fort Worth Division, alleges the organization’s tactics were manipulative and deceptive.
The suit claims:
Media Matters has opted for new tactics in its campaign to drive advertisers from X. Media Matters has manipulated the algorithms governing the user experience on X to bypass safeguards and create images of X’s largest advertisers’ paid posts adjacent to racist, incendiary content, leaving the false impression that these pairings are anything but what they actually are: manufactured, inorganic, and extraordinarily rare.
Media Matters executed this plot in multiple steps, as X’s internal investigations have revealed.
First, Media Matters accessed accounts that had been active for at least 30 days, bypassing X’s ad filter for new users. Media Matters then exclusively followed a small subset of users consisting entirely of accounts in one of two categories: those known to produce extreme, fringe content, and accounts owned by X’s big-name advertisers. The end result was a feed precision-designed by Media Matters for a single purpose: to produce side-by-side ad/content placements that it could screenshot in an effort to alienate advertisers.
But this activity still was not enough to create the pairings of advertisements and content that Media Matters aimed to produce.
Media Matters therefore resorted to endlessly scrolling and refreshing its unrepresentative, hand-selected feed, generating between 13 and 15 times more advertisements per hour than viewed by the average X user repeating this inauthentic activity until it finally received pages containing the result it wanted: controversial content next to X’s largest advertisers’ paid posts.
Media Matters omitted mentioning any of this in a report published on November 16, 2023 that displayed instances Media Matters “found” on X of advertisers’ paid posts featured next to Neo-Nazi and white-nationalist content. Nor did Media Matters otherwise provide any context regarding the forced, inauthentic nature and extraordinary rarity of these pairings.
However, relying on the specious narrative propagated by Media Matters, the advertisers targeted took these pairings to be anything but rare and inorganic, with all but one of the companies featured in the Media Matters piece withdrawing all ads from X, including Apple, Comcast, NBCUniversal, and IBM—some of X’s largest advertisers. Indeed, in pulling all advertising from X in response to this intentionally deceptive report, IBM called the pairings an “entirely unacceptable situation.” Only Oracle did not withdraw its ads.
The truth bore no resemblance to Media Matters’ narrative. In fact, IBM’s, Comcast’s, and Oracle’s paid posts appeared alongside the fringe content cited by Media Matters for only one viewer (out of more than 500 million) on all of X: Media Matters. Not a single authentic user of the X platform saw IBM ’s, Comcast’s, or Oracle’s ads next to that content, which Media Matters achieved only through its manipulation of X’s algorithms as described above. And in Apple’s case, only two out of more than 500 million active users saw its ad appear alongside the fringe content cited in the article—at least one of which was Media Matters.
Media Matters could have produced a fair, accurate account of users’ interactions with advertisements on X via basic reporting: following real users, documenting the actual, organic production of content and advertisement pairings. Had it done so, however, it would not have produced the outcome Media Matters so desperately desired, which was to tarnish X’s reputation by associating it with racist content. So instead, Media Matters chose to maliciously misrepresent the X experience with the intention of harming X and its business.
Further, X CEO Linda Yaccarino – who has reportedly been under pressure all day by various ad companies to resign – defended the company in a statement on Monday.
“If you know me, you know I’m committed to truth and fairness,” she posted.
“Here’s the truth. Not a single authentic user on X saw IBM’s, Comcast’s, or Oracle’s ads next to the content in Media Matters’ article. Only 2 users saw Apple’s ad next to the content, at least one of which was Media Matters. Data wins over manipulation or allegations. Don’t be manipulated. Stand with X.“
The attacks on X make clear that the real concern of Democratic Party elites is their lack of control over the public conversation.
From 1996 to 2016, Democrats felt they controlled the elite policy and political conversation through the news media. After that appeared to fall apart in 2016, and as Democrats, including Podesta, blamed social media for Clinton’s loss, they stepped up their effort to take control over Twitter and Facebook, which they did, demanding and winning the censorship of the Hunter Biden laptop, and deplatforming Trump.
The strategy of Democratic Party leaders, including Clinton, Podesta, and Obama, has been, since 2016, to label Trump-supporting Republicans as racists, Nazis, and antisemites. The attacks on Elon Musk’s X must be taken in this context.
The real agenda behind the Media Matters attack on X is the same as the one behind the Democrats’ attack on Trump and the Republicans. Democrats want to control the conversation.
Without censorship, voters can see that the border is a disaster, the Ukraine war was a tragic failure, and that Democrats have been censoring them.
…
…we must have greater control over the content we receive through social media platforms.
Is this the beginning of the end of the Censorship Industrial Complex?
One thing is for sure, we are glad not to be the head of Media Matters, Angelo Carusone, who tonight faces his own company’s existential threat from a man with the deepest pockets in the world.
Media Matters President Angelo Carusone (left), Elon Musk (right)
Read the full lawsuit below:ZEROHEDGE
END
Rents are not falling!
Good read from Mish Shedlock
(Mish Shedlock)
Falling Rent Is Extremely Rare, Yet Economists Keep Expecting That
The only time rent went negative year-over-year was in the Great Recession, even then, just barely. Yet, every month we see reports of falling rent and expectations that it soon will…
Housing units completed from the Census Department, Rent from the BLS, chart by Mish
I created the above chart today because people keep saying rents will fall due to the massive number of rents under construction.
For over a year we have seen stories saying the price of rents is declining.
If you read the stories, they are generally based on asking prices for new rentals or the notion that supply will soon crush demand causing prices to drop.
But asking prices, even actual prices for new leases do not mean prices are falling. The number of existing leases dwarfs the number of people moving.
CPI Rent
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped 0.5 another percent in October.
Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 27 consecutive months!
CPI month-over-month data from the BLS, chart by Mish
People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t (and the data proves it).
Let’s now put a spotlight on supply, shown in the first chart, with additional details.
Housing Units Under Construction vs Completed Units
Housing data from the Commerce Department, chart by Mish
The only time in the history of this data that rent prices declined year-over-year was in the Great Recession. And that was after completed units crashed 76.8 percent from 2.245 million annualized units to 520,000 annualized units.
A year-over-year decline in rent happened exactly once in history, May of 2010. The preceding and following months had no gain. And those were the only two months of zero percent increases year-over-year (lead chart).
Yet, every month we see nonsense about falling rent based on new leases, or soon to be falling rent based on massive supply.
The Prosecution Rests
In Mish vs the Media, rebutting the idea rents have been declining, the prosecution rests.
Rents have not been declining. Perhaps they will after 27 consecutive monthly increases of at least 0.4 percent, but history strongly suggests rent prices are sticky.
However, It will not take declining rents to make the Fed happy. Increases of 2.0 percent would. But even 2.0 percent or less increases are rare (lead chart, dashed line).
Year-over-year rent is up 7.2 percent.
Due to easy-to-beat year-over-year comparisons, perhaps that the year-over-year rate declines rapidly. But that can happen even as rent increases 0.3 percent monthly.
Thus, a year-over year decline to 2.0 percent is not necessarily a good result, just a better one.
The New Residential Construction Report Shows Housing Starts Rise 1.9 Percent
New home sales are much better than existing home sales because builders are offering mortgage rate buydowns, build smaller homes, and are cutting back on lot and room sizes.
Add it all up and you are not getting a bargain buying anything today. Blame the Fed for these conditions.
How the Fed Destroyed the Housing Market and Created Inflation in Pictures
The Fed is largely responsible for the Great Recession crash, but this one is totally on them.
END
This is to be expected: Inflation battered Americans are raiding their 401K’s to pay mortgage payments and rent
(zerohedge)
Inflation-Battered Americans Raiding 401k’s To Pay Mortgages And Rent
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 06:55 AM
In the latest sign of an economy edging deeper into troubled waters, more Americans are raiding their 401(k) retirement accounts to cover basic living costs, according to data released by Fidelity Investments on Monday.
“Americans outside the wealthiest quintile have run out of extra savings generated early in the pandemic and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began,” notes Bloomberg‘s Alexandre Tanzi, citing Fed data.
According to Fidelity, 2.3% took a hardship withdrawal in the third quarter, up significantly from the 1.8% rate observed in the same quarter of 2022. The top two reasons given for the third-quarter hardship withdrawals: avoiding foreclosure/eviction,and medical expenses.
Withdrawals and loans aren’t just a sign of an increasingly troubled economy — since they sap retirement savings, they also portend a weaker financial future for the growing number of individuals using those features.
Look for the hardship withdrawal rate to keep increasing, and not just for economic reasons: Starting in 2024,a new rule will allow withdrawals of up to $1,000 for emergencies without being subject to the 10% under-59 1/2 penalty. Unlike hardship withdrawals today, participants will be allowed to repay these sub-$1,000 withdrawals back into their accounts over three years. With empathetic intentions, Congress may instead be enabling financially destructive behavior.
IRS rules allow hardship withdrawals for “an immediate and heavy financial need.” Unless it’s from a Roth account, these withdrawals are subject to taxation, including a potential 10% penalty for those who haven’t reached age 59 1/2.
401(k) loans sound more benign– and they can be — but they have their own disadvantages. For example, the interest you pay “to yourself” comes from money that’s already been taxed, and you’ll pay tax on it again when you withdraw it in retirement. Also, if you don’t pay them back on time — or before changing jobs — loans will be re-characterized as distributions subject to income taxes and the 10% penalty.
Avoiding the need to tap retirement savings starts with building an emergency fund: Financial planners typically recommend having the equivalent of three to six months of living expenses in a liquid account such as a money market mutual fund. However, a January Bankrate survey found that 57% of American adults aren’t even able to cover a $1,000 emergency expense. That percentage has almost certainly risen in the intervening 10 months.
In a separate Fidelity survey, 8 out of 10 workers said inflation and the cost of living are causing them stress, with half saying it’s enough to cause them to be distracted on the job.
end
Another good indicator showing lack of demand for goods in the USA. Today it is Best Buy
(zerohedge)
Best Buy Issues Warning Ahead of Black Friday: ‘Consumer Demand Unpredictable and Inconsistent’
TUESDAY, NOV 21, 2023 – 10:55 AM
Days before Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year in the US, electronics retailer Best Buy posted weaker-than-expected third-quarter revenue and lowered guidance, warning about a deteriorating macro environment as “consumer demand has been even more uneven and difficult to predict.”
Chief Executive Corie Barry said, “We are reporting better-than-expected profitability on slightly softer-than-expected revenue for the third quarter. These results demonstrate our ongoing, strong operational execution as we navigate through the near-term sales pressure our industry has been experiencing for the past several quarters.”
However, Barry warned: “In the more recent macro environment, consumer demand has been even more uneven and difficult to predict. Based on the sales trends in Q3 and so far in November, we believe it is prudent to lower our annual revenue outlook. The midpoint of our annual non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance is slightly higher than the midpoint of our original guidance as we entered the year.”
She said the electronics retailer is “prepared for a customer who is very deal-focused” this holiday shopping season. Or, as we’ve noted, “Choiceful.”
In the third quarter ending October 28, Best Buy’s sales were $9.76 billion, marking a decline of almost 8% from the previous year and falling short of analysts’ expectations of $9.9 billion.
Comparable sales, which adjusts for store openings and closings, slid by a steeper-than-expected 6.9%.
Here’s a snapshot of Best Buy’s third-quarter earnings:
Enterprise comparable sales -6.9% vs. -10.4% y/y, estimate -5.71%
International comparable sales -1.9% vs. -9.3% y/y, estimate -4.19%
US comparable sales -7.3% vs. -10.5% y/y, estimate -5.98%
US entertainment comp sales +20.6% vs. -4.6% y/y, estimate +5.67%
US appliances comparable sales -15.1% vs. -9.6% y/y, estimate -8.2%
US computing & mobile phone comparable sales -8.3% vs. -11.4% y/y, estimate -6.4%
US consumer electronics comparable sales -9.5% vs. -12.8% y/y, estimate -6%
US revenue $9.00 billion, -8.2% y/y, estimate $9.15 billion
International revenue $760 million, -3.4% y/y, estimate $755 million
Online revenue as a percentage of total US revenue 30.6% vs. 31% y/y
Gross margin 22.9% vs. 22% y/y, estimate 22.9%
Best Buy expects annual comparable sales to fall from 6.0% to 7.5%, citing weaker fall trends compared with its previous range of a 4.5% to 6% drop.
Sees comparable sales -6% to -7.5%, saw -4.5% to -6%, estimate -5.21% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees adjusted EPS $6 to $6.30, saw $6 to $6.40, estimate $6.19
Sees revenue $43.1 billion to $43.7 billion, saw $43.8 billion to $44.5 billion, estimate $44.16 billion
Higher interest rates, a shift in consumer spending from goods to services, and the return of student loan payments have further weakened demand for electronics following a surge in demand during the Covid pandemic.
Shares of Best Buy in premarket trading were down 4%.
Meanwhile…
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson may have been correct in his report a few months ago when he warned that ‘consumers are falling off a cliff‘.
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
Universities are now unsafe!
(VDH)
Victor Davis Hanson: Can We Save Our Universities?
It took the widely reported, repellent, and exempt wave of anti-Semitism and violent pro-Hamas protestors harassing Jews, finally to convince Americans that their own hallmark universities are illiberal centers of mediocrity and intolerance—and increasingly unsafe…
Of course, Americans had long known that something had gone wrong at their colleges. They had increasingly encountered college graduates who were poorly educated in basic skills and lacked general knowledge—and yet highly politicized, and intolerant of different views and opinions. Ignorant but arrogant is a sad way to start an adult life.
College, the public knew, has certainly eroded from our cherished idea of a four-year idealized respite from adult employment. It once was intended to be a place where youth learned to be open-minded, tolerant, skilled, and eager to learn the nature and traditions of Western civilization, art, literature, languages, philosophy, and history.
Instead, all too often “college” has now descended into a six-to-seven-year misadventure that nationwide often results in only half those enrolled ever receiving degrees. Nearly all sink deeply in student debt. And yet for all the borrowed tuition money, few prove capable of writing analytically, speaking articulately, or knowing the general referents, past and present, of their very civilization.
Students, especially at the elite campuses, learn to mouth monotonously accusations of “genocide.” “apartheid,” “colonialism,” or “imperialism.”
But they lack the ability to define these nouns.
As a result, they so often name drop empty slogans in the context of supposed Western sins.
Again, October 7 brought these sorry facts to national attention. Adolescent screamers on video showed no awareness that dropping leaflets and sending texts to avoid collateral deaths is not “genocide.” Most chant the “river to the sea” with no clue that it resonates the very ethos of mass murdering, mutilation, and dehumanization of Jewish elderly, women, children, and infants in the most savage fashion on October 7.
Accusatory students who scream “apartheid” seemed to have no clue that a fifth of Israel’s population is Arab, with citizenship rights that vastly exceed those in all other Middle East nations.
They have no notion of the ancient and long connections of the Jewish people to the land of Israel, or how in the world the revered Al-Aqsa Mosque found itself atop the far more ancient Herod’s Jewish Second Temple sanctuary.
As far as “colonialism” and “occupation” goes, they are clueless that the longest, non-Arab colonial rule of Palestine was the more than 300-years of often brutal Ottoman/Turkish imperialistic control.
Nor do they have much knowledge of the repeated and combined efforts of far larger and richer Arab nations to wipe tiny Israel out, especially during the full-scale wars of 1947-48, 1967, and 1973.
Instead, politically correct orthodoxies, not the knowledge or logic, of a student, became the hallmark of an “educated” American graduate. Students and faculty were considered “moral” for proclaiming their devotion to diversity, equity, and inclusion, without a clue that historically unity, equality, and fairness were the better aspirations. Without formal study in civics and ethics, students learned that any means were justified to advance political aims merely asserted as morally superior to others.
After October 7, it proved a small campus step from years of institutionalized racially separated graduations, dorms, and campus centers to singling out and often segregating Jewish students from campus spaces.
At Arizona State, Jewish students had to be escorted by police from a campus debate event. Even 20 years ago administrators would likely have expelled those threatening violence—or been forced to resign themselves. Today, they are terrified of mostly foreign students who abuse their visas and seem to despise the host they dare not leave to return home.
Administrators at prestigious MIT admit that some of their foreign students are openly harassing Jews. But the university will not expel such anti-Semites in fear they might lose their student visas and thus have to return to their Middle-East homes and stew about their own miscreant behavior and ingratitude to their hosts. Instead, for college administrators, entitled, and full-tuition paying children of Middle East’s elites are seen as cash cows whose money masks their bigotry.
As a result, cynical MIT grandees now simply warn Jewish students where and where not it is safe to walk on their own campuses. And thus, they confirm the embarrassing reality that the university is either unable or does not wish to stop the systematic anti-Jewish hatred on their own turf.
Yet since when did such student guests in the United States feel empowered to shut down bridges during commute hours, tear down American flags on Veterans Day, and scout out and hunt-down Jewish-Americans on campus?
If universities canonize critical race theorist Ibram Kendi, who insists that “anti-racism” requires good racism to combat bad racism, then is it any wonder that professors of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion and various studies courses at UC Davis or Stanford prominently harassed and threatened Jewish students, or at Cornell cheered on news of Hamas’s murder spree?
If campuses drop the SAT requirement, and no longer rank comparative high-school grade point averages, but instead rely on racial and ethnic quotas and “diversity statements” for university admissions, is it any surprise that insecure and passive-aggressive students feel entitled and exempt from any ramifications for their venom?
And if campuses are fixated on race and superficial appearances, and reward those who are supposedly not guilty of “white privilege,” it is easy to understand why anti-Semites believe they can justify their hatred by assuming Jews are guilty for being white, and they themselves exempt for being nonwhite bigots.
If the endowments of our top universities have reached record-setting multibillion-dollar levels, and if the billion-dollar annual income on those massive sums are non-taxable on the pretense campuses are apolitical and teach inductively rather than indoctrinate, then is it such a shock that exempted huge budgets lead to more staffers than students?
At Stanford, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that there were 16,938 graduate and undergraduate students, but they were out-numbered by the combined total of 15,750 administrators and their staffers, and 2,288 faculty. Would it not be easier and perhaps even cheaper just to hire one tutor for each student and forgo the administrators?
If anti-Semitic and racist professors enjoy life-long tenure, and if such guaranteed lifetime employment has de facto eliminated conservative voices among the faculty, why would any bigot mouthing genocidal chants ever worry about his job security?
So again, ignorant and arrogant describes what the public has concluded of campuses in the last few weeks.
In contrast, there is little such anti-Semitic violence at community colleges or trade schools, where the majority of students attends, and must work to pay for their education, and learn skills in a world apart from therapeutic gut courses.
In truth, a multiple-choice American history test at a junior college now demands more knowledge from a student than the weaponized essay requirement of an Ivy-League -studies class.
Taxpayers soon will no longer wish to subsidize elite education, especially when campuses no longer can guarantee their graduates are broadly educated and their professional and graduate programs can no longer turn out top-flight experts and specialists.
So, what happened to America’s once monopoly on global excellence in higher education?
In a word, there was too much money—and too little accountability. Tuition soared faster than the rate of annual inflation. The federal government subsidizes almost $2 trillion in student loans, regardless of the quality of education the student receives, and often with the expectation there will be few if any consequences when indebted but poorly educated students’ default on their repayment obligations.
The professors who harass students, and rant endlessly off topic about current politics, are often not audited or reviewed on the quality of their scholarship and teaching as much as their political views, and their racial, gender, and ethnic status. Most have little knowledge of the reality outside the academic world—having spent their entire lives as students and then faculty confined to campus. Tenure is seen as a birthright rather than an ossified privilege only accorded to a tiny fraction of the workforce on the pretense that faculty should be heterodox, independent thinkers, without ideological blinders.
So, to save us from the monsters we created, Americans must get the government out of the student loan business. We must demand that universities’ endowments back their own student loans.
The government should tax endowment income and end lifelong tenure. Universities must expel and deport foreign students who violate campus laws as they violently act out their various hatreds.
Reinstate the SAT for admissions, and end racial quotas. And require a national SAT-like exit exam to reassure the public that graduates at least know more when they leave college than when they enrolled—an increasingly dubious assumption.
But most important of all: the public should stop giving money to elite institutions. To continue such philanthropy is akin to supplying heroin to an addict, gas to a fire, or fireworks to children.
Do not consider our prestigious schools any longer necessarily prestigious. Many are not. Do not hire a graduate simply because she graduated from Yale, or he attended Stanford—unless one prefers to risk dealing with an employee poorly schooled but likely to act out a pampered victim status and to disrupt a workplace.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
The King Report November 21, 2023 Issue 7123
Independent View of the News
The expected Monday Rally occurred. Fangs led the rally because the usual suspects got long for the expected great earnings from Nvidia, due after today’s close.
ESZs traded slightly lower, in a tight range, from just after the Nikkei opening until they rallied aft 4:09 ET. The moderate rally ended at 5:05 ET. ESZ then retreated until the rally for the NYSE opening Pump & Dump began at 8:24 ET. ESZs rallied steadily, with only two minor interruptions until they hit the delay high of 4571.00 at 15:28 ET. ESZs then sank
USZs rallied moderately because the 20-year auction ($16B) went well: 4.78% vs. 4.79% WI.
Positive aspects of previous session The Monday equity rally occurred; Fangs led the rally on Nvidia results excitement The Nasdaq 100 hit its highest level since January 2022 on Nvidia jigginess Bonds rallied moderately on a slightly better 20-year auction
Negative aspects of previous session Industrial commodities, including oil and gasoline, rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will select Dems make their move on The Big Guy?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4538.28 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4557.11; 4510.36
U.S. Mission to NATO @USNATO: Ukraine has taken back more than half of its territory seized by Russia’s forces since February 2022. In this tough and dynamic battle, Ukraine’s soldiers are fighting bravely every single day, and they continue to inspire the world with their bravery and courage. We will continue to support them to be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table when the time comes. We continue to stand #UnitedWithUkraine while they defend their freedom.
@ggreenwald: The West is now telling Zelensky, more or less explicitly and right out in the open: time to wrap this up. It is an absolute disgrace that this message wasn’t the message of Biden and the EU from the start, only now. Indeed, Biden and Boris Johnson sabotaged an early peace deal that could have saved tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Ukraine.
Today – Traders will buy dips and get long, or longer, for the expected great results from Nvidia after the close. NVDA is expected to report 3.37. Rumors or inside info about Nvidia’s results, could impact later afternoon trading. Markets are thinner than usual due to high absenteeism for Thanksgiving Week.
ESZs are +2.00 and USZs are -+6at 20:20 ET.
Expected economic data: Oct Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index 0.00; Oct Existing Home Sales 3.9m; FOMC Minutes Nov. 1 meeting;
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4340; 100-day MA: 4410; 150-day MA: 4347; 200-day MA: 4269 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,853; 100-day MA: 34,325; 150-day MA: 34,088; 200-day MA: 33,842 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4425.18 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4417.87 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4530.24 triggers a sell signal
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I like kids better than people. I wish I could stay and watch Wonka with you, but I’m not gonna get to do that!” https://t.co/AiUwYe0A52 BIDEN: “I love your ears” (To a young girl) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1726374185360843174 BIDEN: “I was gonna go play [football] at the Naval Academy until I found out the other guys in the backfield were a guy named Roger Staubach and Joe Bellino.” Biden has repeated this lie many times before and there is still no record any of it ever happened. https://t.co/bVCHiwbh9Q
White House issues brutal response to Biden’s ‘inappropriate’ nickname given by anti-Israel critics Dubbed “Genocide Joe,” Biden has increasingly become the target of far-left protests across the country, including by some in his own party… “People can say what they want on the sidewalk, and we respect that. That’s what the First Amendment is about. But this word genocide is getting thrown around in a pretty inappropriate way by lots of different folks,” he said… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/watch-white-house-issues-brutal-response-to-biden-s-inappropriate-nickname-given-by-anti-israel-critics/ar-AA1kfERT
New York Dem backtracks after calling for Trump to be ‘eliminated’ Rep. Goldman said he ‘mistakenly’ used the word ‘eliminated’https://t.co/C4xJriuwsW
@greg_price11: Haley: “I love your hat.” Nine-year-old girl: “Thanks. One of your guys gave it to me for free.” (9-year old blows whistle on Team Haley for staged scheme) https://t.co/3XwgU8aWF4
![posts[i].image.ImageName (photo credit: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)](https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_537,w_822/564730 "Hamas Gaza Chief Yahya Al-Sinwar gestures during an anti-Israel rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021")
Israelis demand the release of hostages held in captivity by Hamas, Tel Aviv November 21, 2023 (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)
eugyppius: a plague chronicle
Unreported Truths
harveyorganblog.com 
