NOV 29//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.20 TO $2045.95//SILVER CLOSED UP 15 CENTS TO $25.06//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $7.50 TO $937.20 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $26,35 TO $1031.40/GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM CHRIS POWELL AND MIKE MAHARREY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS; WE NOW ENTER DAY 5 WHERE ANOTHER 10 HOSTAGES ARE TO BE RELEASED//AN EXCELLENT COMMENTARY ON THE SON OF HAMAS FOUNDER WHO CLEARLY ASKS ISRAEL TO EXECUTIVE PALESTINIAN PRISONERS ALONG WITH HIS FATHER//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS//INTERESTING INTERVIEW OF BILL ACKMAN/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 2044.35

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.00

NOV 27

Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD  oz  PopupAM2038.21

PM2039.46

Historical SGE Fix

SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM OVER NY: 27 DOLLARS

Bitcoin morning price:, 38,251  UP 36 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $37,719 DOWN 496. dollars

Platinum price closing  $944.70 UP  $24.95

Palladium price;     $1057.75 DOWN $2.25

END

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

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Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,039.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/28/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 11/30/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


624 H BOFA SECURITIES 120
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 26
661 C JP MORGAN 86
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
905 C ADM 5


TOTAL: 120 120
MONTH TO DATE: 6,016


JPMorgan stopped 0/120 contracts.

FOR NOV.:


FOR  NOV:

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Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

WITH GOLD UP $7.20//

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 15  CENTS  AT  THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SHOCKER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.122 MILLION OZ OF SILVER

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 607 CONTRACTS TO 138,164 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG  $0.64 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD A MAJOR SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A  HUGE  SIZED 859 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 859 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.64). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 46  OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES AS THEY ARE CONTINUALLY BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE

WE  MUST HAVE HAD:

A STRONG SIZED 561  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE)  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP    +0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 0 MILLION OZ//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.245 MILLION

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.525 MILLION OZ + 1.245 (EX. FOR RISK) = 5.770 MILLION OZ.

//GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)  HUGE GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 859 CONTRACTS)/

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 days, total 9130 contracts:   OR 45.650 MILLION OZ  (457 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  45.650 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  45.650 MILLION OZ (GOING TO BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 607  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN  IN PRICE OF  $0.64 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 561  ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF  1.432 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON

NEW STANDING 4.525 OZ + 1.245 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTAL 5.770 MILLION OZ///  /// WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 46 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A HUGE SIZED 859 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION.   THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (859) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 0  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG  SIZED 9188 CONTRACTS  TO 505,658 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 9,188 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $26.45 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  + TODAY’S 0 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL EX. FOR RISK:  16.2505  TONNES/   // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK) = 34.9627 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $26.45 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN  OF 16,193  OI CONTRACTS (50.36) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7005 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 506,598

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,193 CONTRACTS  WITH 9188  CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 7005 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,193 CONTRACTS OR 50.36TONNES. WE HAD 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED):  A  STRONG 2628 CONTRACTS. 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7005 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (10,128) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,193 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,00 OZ QUEUE JUMP : NEW STANDING 18.7122 TONNES 16.2505 TONNES EXCHANGE      /THUS NEW TOTAL FOR GOLD STANDING: 34.9627 TONNES // /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION HELPING THE PRICE GAIN, AND WE HAD ATTEMPTED  SPEC SHORT COVERINGS  DURING THE COMEX SESSION BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES AS THE SPECS ARE CONTINUALLY USHERED INTO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE //4)  VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5)    STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2828 CONTRACTS

NOV

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  71,722 CONTRACTS OR 7,172,200 OZ OR 223.085 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3586 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  223.085 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  223.085/3550 x 100% TONNES  5.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   223.085 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH, 

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 607  CONTRACTS OI TO  139,144 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE  561  CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC  561  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  561  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 607 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 561  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A  TINY SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 46 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 0.23 MILLION OZ  

OCCURRED WITH OUR     $0.64 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.87 PTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 360.70 PTS OR 2,08%           /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 87,17 PTS OR 0.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .31 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1277   /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1373 /Oil UP TO 77.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 82.89/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9,188  CONTRACTS  TO 506,598 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $26.45 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 7005  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  DEC 7005 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7005 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 16,193  CONTRACTS IN THAT 7005 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9,188 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $26.45//TUESDAY COMEX.  AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED   2628 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   NOV  (34.7627 TONNES  ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $26.45) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS  WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 16,193 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING TO THE GOOD SIDE OF THE TRADE.  THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED  MASSIVE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF  50.36 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 12,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //NEW TOTALS STANDING:18.7122 TONNES + 0 TONNES exchange for risk today + TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR : 16.2505 TONNES/// NEW TOTAL STANDING: 34.9627 TONNES  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $26.45.  FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG.  THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. 

WE HAD  REMOVED – 940 CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET GAINED ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,193  CONTRACTS OR 1,619,300 OZ OR 50.36 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 207,868  fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday   382,965  very good//roll

//speculators have left the gold arena

NOV 29

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz


32.151 oz
Brinks 1 kilobar















 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil




 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today120  notice(s)
12000 OZ
0.37325 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  0  contracts 
  000 oz
0.000 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month6016 notices
601600  oz
18.7122 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  0 oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits:  nil    oz

we had  1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (one kilobar)

total withdrawals 32.151 oz

Adjustments; 2

a) customer to dealer ASAHI 64,009.031 oz

b) dealer to customer/Brinks 3375.855 oz (105 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.

For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 120  contracts having LOST 34 contracts. We had 154 contracts filed on TUESDAY, so we GAINED 120 contracts or an additional 12,000 oz will  stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER    Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank.  The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. 

December LOST 35,256  contracts DOWN to 24,208 contracts. We have  just 1 more trading day left before FDN. 

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE AROUND 40 to 50  TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN DECEMBER.

JAN. GAINED 151 contracts RISING TO 3376 contracts.

We had  120 contracts filed for today representing 12000    oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 86  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  154   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 34.9627 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,570,924.315  OZ   48.86 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  19,934,659.007 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,111,873.231  (314.52  tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,822,785.776 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,540,949 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 265.66 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV 29

//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
587,653.122 oz
DELAWARE
Brinks

































































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil oz 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
598,834.290 oz
Loomis







 











































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)0  CONTRACT(S)  
 (0,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
(0 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 904 Contracts
 (4,520,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

total: nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 deposits customer account:

customer deposits: 1

i) Into Loomis: 598,834.290 oz

total customer deposit  598,834.290   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441  million oz/266,393 million  or 50.31%

Comex withdrawals 2

we had  2 customer withdrawals

i) out of Delaware 585,694.602

ii) Out of Brinks 1958.20 oz

total withdrawals 598,834.290 oz

adjustments: 2 and it is huge

ASAHI customer to dealer 2948,495.600 oz

Delaware: customer to dealer 622,267.299 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.377 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 266,314 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 0   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 10  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY, SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL   STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER AT THE COMEX 

DEC. LOST 13,638  CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 7119. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE 20 TO 25 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY.  

JANUARY GAINED 394 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1909

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today   73,165,// very good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 123,733 mega huge/roll

There are 37.377 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNE

NOV 27/WITH GOLD UP $9,85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES

NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES

NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES

NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $16.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.15 TONNES

NOV 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES

NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES

NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES

NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES

OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//

OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 880.55 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.122 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ

NOV 27/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,008,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ

NOV 24/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.181 MILLION OZ

NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ

NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 437,104 MILLION OZ

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 778,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.768 MILLION OZ

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ

NOV 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .733 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ

NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ

NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ

NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ

NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ

NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ

OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Did Deutsche Bank Economists Just Imply The Fed Will Create More Inflation In 2024?

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Deutsche Bank economists say the Federal Reserve will create more inflation in 2024.

OK, that’s not exactly what they said. But that is the implication of their latest forecast.

The Deutsche Bank analyst forecast that the Fed will cut rates by 175 basis points in 2024 in response to a “mild” recession. That would drive the Federal Reserve funds rate down to between 3.5% and 3.75%.

This loosening monetary policy, by definition, would create more inflation.

The Fed currently has interest rates set at between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Most mainstream analysts now think the central bank will cut rates next year, but not as steeply as Deutsche Bank economists.

The dominant narrative today is that the Fed has successfully beaten down price inflation. A cooler-than-expected CPI report for October reinforced this notion. With inflation on the run, mainstream analysts think that the Fed has initiated its last hike and will pivot to rate cuts next year to guide the economy to a “soft landing.” Even before the CPI data release markets were pricing in 75 basis points of rate decreases in 2024.

[ZH: The market is pricing in 110bps of cuts next year after yesterday’s comments from Fed Gov. Waller]

Many mainstream analysts and financial news network pundits have taken a recession completely off the table. But Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan told Reuters he expects the US economy to hit a “soft patch” that will lead to a “more aggressive cutting profile.”

Ryan said he expects this economic weakness to further ease inflationary pressure.

The Problems With the Forecast

There are several problems with the Deutsche Bank projections, and the entire mainstream narrative more generally.

In the first place, the death of inflation is greatly exaggerated. No matter how you slice and dice the data, none of the numbers come close to the Fed’s 2% target. Core CPI is still double that number.

Ryan says the “mild” recession will put additional downward pressure on price inflation, but the monetary policy he expects the Fed to follow is inflation.

Rate cuts will ease financial conditions and allow for more money creation and credit expansion.

Rising prices are a symptom of monetary inflation.

And monetary inflation is exactly what we will get when the central bank reverts to a looser monetary policy.

In other words, as soon as the Fed declares victory and starts cutting rates, inflation wins. The Fed goes right back to the inflationary policy that got us into this mess to begin with.

It’s also important to note that even with interest rates at 5.5%, monetary conditions aren’t tight. The Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index confirms this. As of the end of Nov. 17, the index stood at -0.47. Any negative number indicates loose financial conditions. So, despite all of the tightening, the Fed is still running a slightly inflationary monetary policy.

Deutsche Bank projects the Fed will loosen policy even more next year, and yet we’re supposed to believe inflationary pressures will ease.

Second, while an economic downturn can dampen demand and cause some prices to drop, recessions come with their own inflationary pressures, especially when the Fed cuts rates. Those inflationary pressures come in the form of a weaker dollar.

Peter Schiff has pointed out that dollar strength helped do the Fed’s inflation-fighting work over the last year or so. As the dollar rose, commodity prices dropped, driving the CPI lower.

The gains that have been made with respect to measuring inflation have been because of the strong dollar. But here’s the problem; the minute the Fed claims victory, or even the markets think that the Fed is winning, even before the Fed actually declares ‘mission accomplished,’ the markets start trading down the dollar. The dollar starts to fall. As long as the markets think the Fed is winning, the dollar will keep falling. It was when they thought the Fed was losing that they wanted to buy dollars because that meant the Fed was going to fight harder and have to raise rates. But if the fight is over and the Fed has won, well, then there are no more rate hikes.”

Finally, the looming recession isn’t going to be “mild.” In fact, the much anticipated “soft landing” is impossible.

Schiff raises a key question: why do people think the Fed can raise rates from 0 to over 5% and get away without plunging the economy into a recession?

Why would that be if you look at the recent experiences with the Fed having rates too low and then raising them? Go back to the late 1990s and the decline we had in the economy, the recession, the stock market in 2000-2001. Look at the experience in 2008. And look at what happened even before COVID in 2018 when the Fed tried to raise rates from a low level and had to abort it very quickly when the wheels started falling off the bus in the fourth quarter of that year.”

History makes it clear that the Federal Reserve has a hard time normalizing rates. In fact, the attempt to bring rates from around 1% to just over 5% in 2007 led to the greatest recession since the Great Depression.

So, why would anyone believe that the Fed can normalize rates now and not have a similar consequence? Because, after all, the rate hikes expose all of the malinvestments and the misallocation of resources that take place when rates are artificially low.”

The Deutsche Bank forecast is less optimistic than most mainstream projections. Its economists at least recognize the looming recession on the horizon. And they are likely correct that the Fed will cut rates next year — or at whatever point this bubble economy pops. But they are wrong to think that the economic downturn will be short and mild, and that it will be deflationary. It will be the exact opposite. When the economy crashes, the Fed will cut interest rates – likely back to zero. And it will almost certainly go back to quantitative easing.

That’s inflation.

So, when you boil it all down, without realizing it, Deutsche Bank economists are projecting more inflation — not less.

In fact, they’re reading the recipe for stagflation.

end

end

2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino

CHRIS POWELL…..

Chris is perfectly correct on this issue!

No, gold market manipulation didn’t end in 2008

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-11-28 16:40Section: Daily Dispatches

5:11p ET Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold advocate John Rubino writes this month that the gold market used to be manipulated by Wall Street traders “spoofing” the futures market, by commercial fabricators trying to trick hedge funds and other speculators in the futures market, and by Western central banks lending gold to bullion banks so they would sell it into the market to depress the price and thereby defend government currencies against competition from the monetary metal.

Only the latter manipulation has long-term impact, Rubino writes, and it ended in 2008 when other central banks turned from net sellers of gold to net buyers. If there is any manipulation left in the gold market, Rubino contends, it is now manipulation up:

https://rubino.substack.com/p/is-gold-a-manipulated-market

Rubino’s assertions leave much room for argument.

First, while particular “spoof” trades indeed may have impact for only a day or two, repeated “spoof” trades over a long period may largely set the entire tone of a market, demoralizing traders on the wrong side of the “spoofs.” The U.S. Justice Department would not have managed to fine JPMorganChase $920 million in 2020 for “spoofing” the gold and silver futures markets if that “spoofing” had only momentary impact.

The same with any trickery attempted by commercial fabricators in the gold market. One day’s trickery may work only for that day or the next, but the trickery of day after day for six months well might work much longer.

Second, while gold does seem to have regained adherents in central banking during the last decade and a half, even central banks may prefer to buy low and sell high. If, as suggested by some observers, like the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance, for some years now central bank policy has been to acquire and redistribute gold among themselves in anticipation of devaluation of government currencies and debt and upward revaluation of the monetary metal —

https://www.gata.org/node/11373

— central banks wouldn’t want to overpay. They would want to control the timing of the revaluation, not share it with mere citizens of Planet Earth, and central banks often justify themselves as being necessary to maintain order in the foreign exchange markets, where gold can be a most inconvenient participant.

Since there is no comprehensive public record of all central bank trades in the gold market in recent decades, Rubino’s conclusion that market manipulation by the official sector ended in 2008 is just speculation.

What is fact is that surreptitious intervention in the gold market by central banks has continued from 2008 to the present day, as documented by GATA consultant Robert Lambourne’s calculation of the monthly volumes of gold swaps undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of all the major central banks and their gold broker.

Using the monthly statements of account from the BIS, Lambourne has shown that while the BIS’ gold swaps have trended largely down since 2020, reaching zero in December 2022, since then they have trended up again. The monthly levels of swaps are charted on the fourth page of the PDF illustration here:  

Insofar as it is generally acknowledged that “paper gold,” unbacked gold derivatives being traded in the gold market, vastly outweighs the actual metal available in the market by as much as 100 to 1, the likelihood of a downward manipulation in gold would seem far greater than the likelihood of an upward manipulation.

So how does the gradually rising gold price of the last quarter century square with the price suppression policy of Western central banks? It’s really not so hard to understand. With a paper-to-real ratio of 92 to 1, a huge naked short position in the market, gold probably would have risen much faster if central banks were not striving to restrain it.

The economist, author, and Defense Department adviser James G. Rickards has explained it many times. He says Western central banks don’t mind a rising gold price so much; they just don’t want gold to rise so fast that it attracts much notice and starts making problems for their own currencies.

That’s why the biggest offense in central bank policy here isn’t gold price suppression but the general destruction of free markets and the cheating of market participants.

Yes, GATA’s purpose has been to press the issue of gold price suppression until markets are free and transparent. But we wouldn’t mind winning that struggle and turning to easier work — like proving the existence of UFOs, Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster. Then our adversaries would be weaker and we’d get far more notice and respect from mainstream news organizations.

But even if UFOs, Bigfoot, and the Loch Ness Monster were proven to be as real as gold market manipulation, what difference would it make if the world remained subject to the tyranny of modern central banking?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/ 

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

end

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.1277

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1373

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 16.87 PTS OR 0.56%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 360.70 PTS OR 2.08%

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 87,17PTS OR 0.26%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:   ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX UP  TO  102.73 EURO FALLS TO 1.0984 DOWN 20 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.673 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147,66/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP//  OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.4455***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.189** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.443…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.616

3j Gold at $2041.35 silver at: 24.96 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 93 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.50//

3m oil into the  77  dollar handle for WTI and 82  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,66//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.673STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8763 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9628 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.250 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.474 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.689 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.92…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 10  BASIS PTS AT 4.1595

end

Futures, Treasuries Gain As Attention Turns To Timing Of Fed Rate Cuts

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 08:23 AM

US equity futures, global markets and Treasuries extended their recent rallyall boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve is not only done with hjking but will soon pivot and start cut rates early next year; in fact, according to Bill Ackman who has again flipflopped, the Fed will cut as soon as March (i.e., he is now long the same bonds he was so passionately shorting just a few months ago). This occurs as consumer confidence moved higher with holiday, retail sales numbers that illustrate a still strong consumer. As of 7:45am, US equity futures are up 0.4%, rising to the highest since Sept 1 and just shy of 2023 highs, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.6%; gold traded near record high, the dollar slide halted but is certainly not over, WTI oil futures rose 1.7% on the day, adding to Tuesday’s advance, while bitcoin traded just above $38K. The big question now is whether this rally can extend into December; the answer may be predicated on fundamentals rather than positioning/technicals. BBG reporting an uptick in corporate insider buying alongside stronger buyback activity. Today’s macro data focus includes 23Q3 GDP/Consumption/PCE, Beige Book, inventories, trade balance, and mtge applications.

In premarket trading, tech and small-caps are outperforming; megacap teach names are higher having added almost 14% MTD. General Motors jumped almost 6% in US premarket trading after announcing it will boost its dividend by 33% and implement a $10 billion share buyback program. Las Vegas Sands shares fell 5.6% as Miriam Adelson is selling $2 billion of stock in the casino company so the family can acquire a majority stake in the Dallas Mavericks NBA franchise from Mark Cuban. GameStop shares jump 12%, putting the stock on track to extend gains for a second consecutive session, ahead of its third-quarter results next week. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Airbnb shares slip 0.8% after Jefferies cut its recommendation on the short-term rental platform’s stock to hold from buy, citing a recent slowdown in bookings.
  • CrowdStrike Holdings shares edged higher, rising 3.0%, after the security software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year revenue forecast.
  • Fluence Energy shares jump 19% after the energy storage company’s results beat expectations, with analysts positive on its orders and prospects for 2024, especially against investors’ more sombre view on the renewables sector.
  • NetApp shares jump 12% after the data storage company boosted its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast above analyst expectations. Additionally, the company also reported second-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Analysts highlighted the traction in new products as well as strength in all-flash solutions.
  • Okta shares fell 6.2% after the applications software company said it has found that hackers who had breached its network stole information on all users of its customer support system.
  • Workday shares rise 8.92% after the application software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for subscription revenue.
  • Foot Locker Inc surged as much as 13% after comparable sales beat the average analyst estimate.

The November stock party continues and the MSCI All Country World Index of stocks has gained 8.7% so far this month, the most since November 2020 amid a collapsing dollar (which however today paused a four-day retreat). It’s not just stocks that are soaring: in the latest rerun of the QE trade, bonds are climbing at the fastest monthly pace since 2008 as inflation continues to slow and Fed officials strike a dovish tone.

The latest leg higher for stocks and bonds came after the otherwise hawkish Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested the central bank is well positioned to push inflation to a 2% target. And then overnight, Bill Ackman said he’s betting Fed cuts could come as soon as the first quarter, something we first said two weeks ago.

“The market is hanging on to everything Fed speakers say,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at UK wealth manager St James Place. “It was only the end of October when we were talking of 5% yields on US Treasuries. It does feel like the market is being a bit complacent.”

Now, traders are looking ahead to data on Thursday that include the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the core PCE, as well as a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the end of the week that could offer clues on potential policy easing. “I would expect some pushback on market rate expectations,” said Marc Ostwald, chief economist & global strategist at ADM Investor Services Int. Ltd. “Inflation will have to drop sharply in the coming months, and the labor market will need to loosen a lot more to justify a rate cut in the first half of 2024.”

European stocks are in the green after posting back-to-back losses for the first time in three weeks. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6%, led by gains in real estate, auto and technology shares. The autos and real estate sectors are the best performers, with many property shares getting a boost from a renewed decline in yields. The energy and insurance sectors are the worst performers. Philips slumps on a new apnea machine safety issue. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

  • Vestas shares rise as much as 4% after Berenberg lifts recommendation on Danish wind turbine producer to buy from hold, citing rising momentum in margins over the last two quarters.
  • BMW shares rise as much as 3.6%, with JPMorgan lauding a well balanced growth strategy at the German automaker and upgrading it to overweight from neutral.
  • Musti shares gain as much as 29%, the most since the pet care firm went public in 2020, after the company’s board recommended a voluntary public cash tender offer from a group of investors that values the outstanding equity at €868m.
  • Harbour Energy shares rise as much as 5.1% and is among leading gainers on the Stoxx 600 energy index on Wednesday, after delivering a nine-month update that analysts describe as solid.
  • Ferrovial shares gain as much as 3.2% after Spanish construction firm agreed to sell its stake in the parent company of Heathrow Airport to Ardian and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund for a total of $3 billion.
  • Saipem shares gain as much as 3% after the engineering company got two offshore contracts in Guyana and Brazil worth approximately $1.9b.
  • Philips falls as much as 7.7% after the Food and Drug Administration warned about a new safety issue involving the company’s DreamStation 2 machines used to treat obstructive sleep apnea.
  • Halfords shares slide as much as 23%, the biggest intraday decline since Jan. 12, after the motoring and cycling products retailer reported interim results. RBC Capital Markets said pretax profit was below their expectations due to a softer showing in the company’s retail business, while Peel Hunt noted that the wider market was “not playing ball.”
  • Aroundtown shares slump as much as 11%, its second slump this month, after third quarter results showed deleveraging remains a major issue at the German real estate firm, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • Kindred shares fall as much as 9.7%, the most since January, after the Stockholm-listed online gambling operator reported third-quarter earnings weighed down by poor margins in its sports betting segment. The outcome of a strategic review is, however, seen as positive due to cost savings.

The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge fell 0.3% erasing earlier gains, even as the US 10-year yield dropped below the closely watched 100-day average, as gains in Australia were tempered by heavy losses in Chinese technology shares. Meituan was the biggest drag on the regional gauge after the Chinese firm warned that growth in its main meal delivery business would slow this quarter. A measure of technology stocks in Hong Kong also dropped to its lowest level in two weeks.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with underperformance in Hong Kong after the recent rises in domestic money market rates and with the PBoC’s open market operations resulting in a net daily drain.
  • Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with early pressure from a firmer currency before the index rebounded off lows, while there were also comments from BoJ Adachi who stuck to the dovish script as he noted it is appropriate to patiently maintain easy policy and if needed, the BoJ will take additional easing steps.
  • Australian stocks climbed after inflation cooled more-than-expected in October, bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank to resume pausing interest rates next week. New Zealand stocks also rose after its central bank kept rates unchanged.
  • Indian stocks rallied, with the NSE Nifty 50 Index reclaiming the psychological 20,000 mark for the first time since dropping below it in September. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.1% to 66,901.91 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Mumbai, while the Nifty finished 1% higher at 20,096.60. The Nifty has logged similar or greater gains eight times in the past year. The gauge rose further the next day on six occasions, posting an average 0.4% gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Wednesday’s gains were driven by automobiles and banks, which rose over 1.5% each. The laggards were media and realty, which ended in the red.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is unchanged after falling as much 0.2% to 1228,70, its lowest since early August amid growing bets that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates next year, after two hawkish Fed officials signaled they could be comfortable holding rates steady for now. The kiwi is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.2% versus the greenback after a hawkish hold from the RBNZ. The Aussie lags after CPI slowed in October. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.4% to trade near $77.40. Spot gold falls 0.2%.

In rates, treasuries were richer by 4bps-5bps across the curve amid bigger gains in core European rates following bullish German state CPI readings ahead of the national print at 8am New York time. Two-year Treasury yields dropped four basis points to 4.69% after shedding 15 basis points Tuesday. Fed swaps are anticipating over 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, 10-year TSY yields are around 4.28%, richer by 4bp vs Tuesday close while trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 1bp on the day; new 2-year note auctioned Monday traded as rich as 4.664%, lowest for a current issue since mid-July and approaching 200-day moving average. Swaps market looks for deeper rate cuts next year, with May contracts priced for 23bp of cuts, or 92% chance of a 25bp move. German bonds rallied for a third day, the longest stretch in a month, after regional and state inflation data showed that inflation continued to slow. German 10-year yields fall 4bps to 2.45%.

“Attention will now move to Chair Powell’s speech on Friday to see if the tone points to a clear pivot towards easing,” Daragh Maher, head of FX strategy for the US at HSBC, wrote in a research note. “If it materializes, this would clearly be a challenge to our bullish US dollar view”

In commodities, oil climbed for a second day as traders awaited a high-stakes OPEC+ meeting on supply. WTI rose 1.4% to trade near $77.40. Gold extended gains to its highest level since May, also buoyed by hopes of a Fed policy shift.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the preliminary German CPI reading for November, UK mortgage approvals for October, and in the US there’s the second estimate of Q3’s GDP (median est. 5% vs 4.9% initial). From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,576.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 459.11
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 161.59
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 504.05
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 33,321.22
  • Topix down 0.5% to 2,364.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 16,993.44
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,021.69
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 66,881.45
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,035.35
  • Kospi little changed at 2,519.81
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.0979
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $82.01/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,035.68
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 102.86

Top Overnight News

  • Jack Ma has urged Alibaba to “change and reform” as the ecommerce giant he founded tries to find a new path after abandoning parts of its ambitious restructuring plan and its main Chinese rival gains ground. FT
  • Australia’s inflation cools, with the CPI rising 4.9% in Oct (down from +5.6% in Sept and below the Street’s +5.2% forecast). BBG
  • Spanish inflation unexpectedly eased, retreating for the first time since June thanks to drops in the costs of fuel and tourism. Consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year earlier in November, data Wednesday showed. That compares with 3.5% the previous month and defied the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists for an acceleration to 3.7%. BBG
  • German regional inflation cools in Nov, including Baden Wuerttemberg +3.4% (down from +4.4% in Oct), Bavaria +2.8% (down from +3.7% in Oct), Brandenburg +4.1% (down from +4.6% in Oct), Hesse +2.9% (down from +3.6% in Oct), North Rhine Westphalia +3% (down from +3.1% in Oct), and Saxony +3.9% (down from +4.5% in Oct). BBG
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will not make peace in Ukraine before he knows the results of the November 2024 U.S. election, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday, amid concerns that a potential victory for former President Donald Trump could upend Western support for Kyiv. RTRS
  • Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting. The Pershing Square Capital Management founder said such a move could happen as soon as the first quarter. Traders are fully pricing in a rate cut in June, with the chance of a cut happening in May priced at about 80%, according to swaps market data. BBG
  • WDAY shares rose more than 8% premarket after the cloud enterprise company raised its outlook for the year and reported higher-than-expected revenue in the third quarter. WSJ
  • OpenAI’s revamped board of directors doesn’t plan to include representatives from outside investors, according to a person familiar with the situation. It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns. The Information
  • The head of Amazon’s cloud division has used recent turmoil at OpenAI to launch a thinly veiled attack on Microsoft, the artificial intelligence company’s biggest investor. “Things are moving so fast [in AI] and in that type of environment the ability to adapt is the most valuable capability that you can have,” Selipsky, AWS chief executive, said at its annual developer conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday. “You don’t want a cloud provider that’s beholden primarily to one model provider, you need a real choice . . . The events of the past 10 days have made that very clear.” FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after the choppy performance on Wall St where stocks wavered, Treasuries rallied and the Dollar dipped on dovish Fed rhetoric, while the region also digested the RBNZ’s hawkish hold where it kept rates unchanged but signalled risks of a hike. ASX 200 was positive with the index helped by encouraging data including better-than-expected Construction Work Done which feeds into next week’s GDP release and after softer monthly CPI all but guaranteed a pause at the December RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with early pressure from a firmer currency before the index rebounded off lows, while there were also comments from BoJ Adachi who stuck to the dovish script as he noted it is appropriate to patiently maintain easy policy and if needed, the BoJ will take additional easing steps. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with underperformance in Hong Kong after the recent rises in domestic money market rates and with the PBoC’s open market operations resulting in a net daily drain.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Vice Foreign Minister recently met with the EU’s external action service deputy secretary and said that China is ready to strengthen communication and coordination with the EU side and make preparations for a China-EU summit before the end of the year. Furthermore, it was stated that the two sides need to grasp the general direction of China-EU relations, uphold mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, as well as fully respect each other’s core interests, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s Finance Ministry will raise the assumed interest rate paid on bonds in the government’s annual budget proposal for the first time in 17 years in fiscal 2024, reflecting policy shifts by the BoJ that have allowed yields to rise, according to Nikkei.
  • BoJ Board Member Adachi said Japan is yet to see a positive wage-inflation cycle become embedded enough and it is appropriate to patiently maintain easy policy. Adachi also stated that if needed, the BoJ will take additional easing steps, while he added that the steps the BoJ took in October to make YCC more flexible are not aimed at laying the groundwork for policy normalisation.
  • RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it reiterated that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time and interest rates are restricting spending in the economy with consumer price inflation declining as is necessary to meet the committee’s remit. RBNZ said inflation remains too high and the committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary pressures, as well as noted that demand growth has eased but by less than anticipated and if inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further. Furthermore, the committee is confident the current OCR level is restricting demand but slightly raised OCR and CPI forecasts with the OCR seen at 5.63% in March 2024 (prev. 5.58%), 5.66% in December 2024 (prev. 5.50%), and 5.56% (prev. 5.36%) in March 2025, while annual CPI is seen at 2.5% by December 2024 (prev. 2.4%).
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said in the press conference that they’ve been adamant on holding rates through next year and noted that the projection shows upward bias to rates but it is not a done deal. Orr also stated the risk to inflation is still more to the upside, while he is nervous that inflation has been outside the band for so long and concerned that longer-term inflation expectations are creeping up.
  • REUTERS POLL: Chinese New Home Prices Growth expects at +3.0% Y/Y 2023 (vs 0% in August poll); 1.1% Y/Y in 2024 (1.0% in August poll)

European equities, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% are extending gains, but with clear underperformance in the FTSE100 -0.2%, albeit the UK index is off lows. European sectors have a strong positive tilt; featuring strength in Autos & Parts whilst Energy lags but with both sectors underpinned by broker moves. US Futures are trading on the front foot, NQ & ES +0.4%, with clear outperformance in the RTY +0.8% as it pares back yesterday’s losses.

Top European News

  • The number of businesses set up in the UK in 2022 fell by 7% to 337k as UK business creation was hit by high borrowing costs and weaker demand, according to analysis by FT citing data released last week by the Office of National Statistics.
  • Several ECB regulators are reportedly planning to push to ease bank payout stance, according to Bloomberg
  • ECB’s Stournaras says ECB April cut bets seem a bit optimistic, via Politico; says the first rate cut could come in the middle of 2024. Early PEPP winddown risks hurting ECB credibility
  • OECD raises 2023 US growth forecast to 2.4% (prev. 2.2%), 1.5% in 2024 (prev. 1.3%), sees 1.7% 2025; Sees Chinese growth 5.2% (prev. 5.1%), 4.7% (prev. 4.6%), 4.2% in 2025; Raises UK growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.3%), trims 2024 0.7% (prev. 0.8%), 1.2% in 2025.

FX

  • DXY finds underlying bids just shy of 102.50 and aims for 103.00
  • Kiwi outperforms after hawkish RBNZ hold and Aussie caught in AUD/NZD cross-fire with added downside pressure from soft inflation data
  • NZD/USD elevated within 0.6208-0.6134 range, AUD/USD depressed between 0.6676-20 parameters
  • Euro undermined by weaker than forecast German state and Spanish CPI metrics. EUR/USD sub-1.1000, but holding near decent option expiry interest and former Fib resistance/breakout area
  • Yen retreats towards 148.00 from circa 146.68 after dovish guidance from BoJ’s Adachi
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1031 vs exp. 7.1340 (prev. 7.1132).

Fixed Income

  • Bonds still well bid, but off new m-t-d highs
  • Bunds hold comfortably above 132.00 within 132.72-131.95 range
  • Gilts midway between 97.31-96.91 bounds and T-note a tad closer to 109-29 trough vs 110-14+ peak ahead of revised US Q3 GDP, Fed’s Mester and Beige Book
  • UK and German issuance less well covered after lack of concession
  • UK sells GBP 4.25bln 3.5% 2025 Gilt: b/c 2.36x (prev. 2.61x), average yield 4.554% (prev. 4.964%) & tail 2.0bps (prev. 1.1bps)
  • Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 4.10% 2029, 4.20% 2034 BTP & 0.75-1bln 2026 CCTeu: 4.10% 2029: b/c 1.45x (prev. 1.45x) & gross yield 3.61% (prev. 4.12%). 4.20% 2034: b/c 1.45x (prev. 1.33x) & gross yield 4.17% (prev. 4.76%). 2026 CCTeu: b/c 1.99x (prev. 2.0x) & gross yield 4.43% (prev. 4.12%)
  • Germany sells EUR 2.82bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.60% 2033: b/c 1.74x (prev. 2.55x), average yield 2.45% (prev. 2.64%) & retention 19.4% (prev. 17.40%)

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent, +1.3%, extend gains with the complex initially boosted by the recent weaker Dollar, and as the clock ticks down to the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow; though, the USD has since bounced but crude remains underpinned nonetheless.
  • Spot gold briefly topped USD 2050/oz overnight to levels last seen in May, whilst base metals are flat/mixed taking a breather from yesterday’s Dollar-induced gains as the index lifts back towards 103.00.
  • Strike at Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is limited to 48 hours after the labour authority declared the protest inappropriate.
  • First Quantum (FM CA) said the Cobre Panama Mine suspended commercial production and is applying a programme of preservation and safe maintenance after the recent court ruling that its contract was unconstitutional.
  • OPEC+ talks are ongoing continuing no fresh delays currently expected to tomorrow’s meeting, according to Reuters sources

Geopolitics: Israel-Hamas

  • Israeli negotiators are offering Hamas a further three days of ceasefire through to Sunday morning if the group releases all the remaining women and children they believe it is holding, according to sources close to talks in Qatar cited by The Times.
  • G7 Foreign Ministers’ joint statement on Israel and Gaza stated that they welcome the release of hostages and the pause in hostilities, while they support a further extension of the pause and future pauses as needed.
  • White House’s Kirby said they hope to see more Americans released by Hamas and will work to see if they can extend the pause.
  • US paused drone flights over Gaza as part of the truce between Israel and Hamas, according to a Pentagon spokesperson.
  • Source close to Hamas says group willing to extend truce by four more days, according to AFP.
  • “Israeli vehicles fire their weapons at different areas northwest of Gaza City”, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: NATO

  • US State Department senior official said Turkey’s Foreign Minister told NATO he is working on the ratification of Sweden and gave the likely timeline of a ‘few weeks’.
  • Swedish Foreign Minister says Turkey’s Foreign Minister said that ratification for Sweden’s accession to NATO could occur within weeks

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.0%
  • 08:30: 3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
  • 08:30: 3Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
  • 08:30: 3Q Personal Consumption, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
  • 08:30: Oct. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.9%
  • 08:30: Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$86.5b, prior -$85.8b, revised -$86.8b
  • 08:30: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 5.0%, prior 4.9%
  • 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Bank speakers

  • 13:45: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Financial Stability

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As I fly over what are snowy Alpine peaks at the moment, the main highlight over the last 24 hours has been a further dovish pivot for rates with central bank speakers really impacting the market with 2yr Treasury yields leading the charge and down -11.8bps to a 4 month low and down another -4bps overnight. The next hurdles for markets are today’s German CPI and the second reading of US Q3 GDP.

The main catalyst for this bond rally were comments from generally hawkish Fed Governor Waller, who said that he was “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%”. His off the cuff Q&A responses even suggested cuts were potentially possible in H1 if inflation behave as he thinks it could. So surprisinginly explicit. That was taken as another sign that the Fed were done hiking rates, and investors moved to price in a noticeably more dovish path for rates over the year ahead. For instance, the chance of a rate cut as soon as the March meeting rose from 16% to 35%, and the chance of a cut by May was up from 58% to 86%. And if you look at 2024 as a whole, the amount of cuts priced in was up from 89bps to 103bps following those comments. A reminder from our World Outlook that we expect 175bps of rate cuts in 2024 and a big rally down to 3.15% for 2 year yields. But this is more on the recession view rather than a soft landing one that markets are pricing.

To be fair, there were some hawkish lines from the Fed as well yesterday, it’s just that markets were focused on the dovish interpretation. One example came from Fed Governor Bowman, who said that her baseline outlook “continues to expect that we will need to increase the federal funds rate further”. However later New York Fed President Williams struck a more dovish tone again, saying that “encouragingly, the inflation trajectory has turned. ” This is the final week they can speak before the blackout period before the December meeting starts. We’ll get some further Fed speakers later in the week, including Chair Powell on Friday.

As discussed at the top, the prospect of near-term rate cuts was great news for sovereign bonds, which rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. For example, US Treasuries saw a significant decline in yields across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-11.8bps) down to its lowest level since mid-July, before the big surge in yields over the summer. Similarly, the 10yr Treasury yield fell -6.6bps, taking it down to its lowest level since September at 4.32%. Yields across the curve have rallied further overnight by around -4bps. Bear in mind that it was only on October 23 that the 10yr yield moved above 5% on an intraday basis, so we’ve seen a sharp move lower in that time, to an extent we haven’t seen since the turmoil following SVB’s collapse in March.

$39bn 7-year bonds were issued yesterday, which is the third and last Treasury auction this week. It was a relatively weak auction with both direct and indirect bidders taking less of the auction than average over the last year with the largest primary dealer takedown since last November. 7yr yields were down nearly -7.8bps around noon local time before the poor auction saw yields rise 4bps before retracing its move by the close to finish down -9.1bps overall at 4.339% and further overnight as discussed above.

All those moves had significant implications across other asset classes too. In FX, growing anticipation about a Fed rate cut meant the dollar index (-0.44%) weakened for a third consecutive day, and the Euro surpassed $1.10 for the first time since August intraday before closing at $1.099. Meanwhile, gold (+1.33%) posted another very strong performance, hitting a new 6-month high. And in Europe there was a similar decline in sovereign bond yields, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.1bps), OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-3.0bps) all moving lower .

Equities opened lower, rallied with the Fed speak and trading around unchanged through the US afternoon before the S&P 500 ended the day marginally (+0.10%) higher. That’s up +8.61% in November, so barring a last minute slump over today and tomorrow, it’s firmly on track to be the best month for the S&P of 2023 so far. The S&P was led yesterday by autos (+3.9%), software (+0.7%), whilst healthcare (-0.5%) and Financials (-0.3%) lagged. With autos and software outperforming, the NASDAQ rose +0.29%. Europe was an underperformer however, with the STOXX 600 down -0.30% .

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-2.3%) leading losses and looking set for the lowest close in a year and continuing to buck the trend of the rest of the world. China risk is also weak on the mainland with the CSI (-0.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.27%) also lower. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.04%) and the Nikkei (+0.09%) are swinging between gains and losses this morning. S&P 500 (+0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.16%) futures are moving slightly higher.

Early morning data showed that the Australia’s inflation rate slowed more than expected, coming in at +4.9% y/y in Oct (v/s +5.2% expected) as against an increase of +5.6% recorded in the prior month. With the inflation data undershooting market expectations, it likely reduces the possibility of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) when it meets next Tuesday for its final meeting of the year on interest rates. Our economists still think they’ll hike though.

When it came to yesterday’s data, the US releases were pretty mixed, even though markets were anticipating a growing chance of rate cuts. On the bright side, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for November rose to 102.0 (vs. 101.0 expected), which was up from a revised 99.1 in October. That ended a run of three consecutive monthly declines, and the expectations measure also rose to 77.8. However, there were also some weaker numbers on the labour market, and the proportion saying that jobs were hard to get rose to 15.4%, which is the highest it’s been since March 2021, and adds to the recent indicators suggesting a weakening labour market. Otherwise, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index fell to a three-month low of -5 (vs. 1 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the preliminary German CPI reading for November, UK mortgage approvals for October, and in the US there’s the second estimate of Q3’s GDP. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book.

Equities & DXY bid, AUD lags due to cross-related flows; US GDP & PCE Prices due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 06:23 AM

  • European bourses & US Futures extend gains but with clear underperformance in the FTSE100
  • DXY is firmer edging back towards the 103.00 level; G10’s are mixed with underperformance in the AUD following mixed data and cross-related flows.
  • RBNZ opted for a hawkish hold where it kept rates unchanged but slightly raised its OCR forecasts from March 2024 to March 2025.
  • EGBs bid amid EZ-member inflation prints, but have drifted slightly from best alongside USTs
  • Crude remains resilient despite recent advances in the Dollar, with metals flat/mixed
  • Looking ahead, German Prelim. CPI, US MBA’s, GDP Estimates, PCE Prices, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Japanese Industrial Production, Fed Beige Book, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Mester.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European equities, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% are extending gains, but with clear underperformance in the FTSE100 -0.2%, albeit the UK index is off lows.
  • European sectors have a strong positive tilt; featuring strength in Autos & Parts whilst Energy lags but with both sectors underpinned by broker moves.
  • US Futures are trading on the front foot, NQ & ES +0.4%, with clear outperformance in the RTY +0.8% as it pares back yesterday’s losses.
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
  • Click here for more details.

FX

  • DXY finds underlying bids just shy of 102.50 and aims for 103.00
  • Kiwi outperforms after hawkish RBNZ hold and Aussie caught in AUD/NZD cross-fire with added downside pressure from soft inflation data
  • NZD/USD elevated within 0.6208-0.6134 range, AUD/USD depressed between 0.6676-20 parameters
  • Euro undermined by weaker than forecast German state and Spanish CPI metrics. EUR/USD sub-1.1000, but holding near decent option expiry interest and former Fib resistance/breakout area
  • Yen retreats towards 148.00 from circa 146.68 after dovish guidance from BoJ’s Adachi
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1031 vs exp. 7.1340 (prev. 7.1132).
  • Click here for more details.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds still well bid, but off new m-t-d highs
  • Bunds hold comfortably above 132.00 within 132.72-131.95 range
  • Gilts midway between 97.31-96.91 bounds and T-note a tad closer to 109-29 trough vs 110-14+ peak ahead of revised US Q3 GDP, Fed’s Mester and Beige Book
  • UK and German issuance less well covered after lack of concession
  • UK sells GBP 4.25bln 3.5% 2025 Gilt: b/c 2.36x (prev. 2.61x), average yield 4.554% (prev. 4.964%) & tail 2.0bps (prev. 1.1bps)
  • Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 4.10% 2029, 4.20% 2034 BTP & 0.75-1bln 2026 CCTeu: 4.10% 2029: b/c 1.45x (prev. 1.45x) & gross yield 3.61% (prev. 4.12%). 4.20% 2034: b/c 1.45x (prev. 1.33x) & gross yield 4.17% (prev. 4.76%). 2026 CCTeu: b/c 1.99x (prev. 2.0x) & gross yield 4.43% (prev. 4.12%)
  • Germany sells EUR 2.82bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.60% 2033: b/c 1.74x (prev. 2.55x), average yield 2.45% (prev. 2.64%) & retention 19.4% (prev. 17.40%)
  • Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent, +1.3%, extend gains with the complex initially boosted by the recent weaker Dollar, and as the clock ticks down to the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow; though, the USD has since bounced but crude remains underpinned nonetheless.
  • Spot gold briefly topped USD 2050/oz overnight to levels last seen in May, whilst base metals are flat/mixed taking a breather from yesterday’s Dollar-induced gains as the index lifts back towards 103.00.
  • Strike at Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is limited to 48 hours after the labour authority declared the protest inappropriate.
  • First Quantum (FM CA) said the Cobre Panama Mine suspended commercial production and is applying a programme of preservation and safe maintenance after the recent court ruling that its contract was unconstitutional.
  • OPEC+ talks are ongoing continuing no fresh delays currently expected to tomorrow’s meeting, according to Reuters sources
  • Click here for more details.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • The number of businesses set up in the UK in 2022 fell by 7% to 337k as UK business creation was hit by high borrowing costs and weaker demand, according to analysis by FT citing data released last week by the Office of National Statistics.
  • Several ECB regulators are reportedly planning to push to ease bank payout stance, according to Bloomberg
  • ECB’s Stournaras says ECB April cut bets seem a bit optimistic, via Politico; says the first rate cut could come in the middle of 2024. Early PEPP winddown risks hurting ECB credibility
  • OECD raises 2023 US growth forecast to 2.4% (prev. 2.2%), 1.5% in 2024 (prev. 1.3%), sees 1.7% 2025; Sees Chinese growth 5.2% (prev. 5.1%), 4.7% (prev. 4.6%), 4.2% in 2025; Raises UK growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.3%), trims 2024 0.7% (prev. 0.8%), 1.2% in 2025.

DATA RECAP

  • German state CPIs have all come in markedly cooler than prior, and as such present downward bias to the mainland figure at 13:00GMT which is expected at 3.5% (prev. 3.8%).
  • German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI Y/Y (Nov) 3.0% (Prev. 3.1%); Core Y/Y (ex-Food/Energy) 3.7% (Prev. 4.1%); MM (Nov) -0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
  • German Saxony State CPI YY (Nov) 3.9% (Prev. 4.5%); MM (Nov) -0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
  • German Import Prices MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 1.6%); YY -13.0% vs. Exp. -13.4% (Prev. -14.3%)
  • Spanish HICP Flash YY (Nov) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.5%); Core 4.5% (prev. 5.2%); MM Flash NSA -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.05% (Prev. 0.30%)
  • Italian Consumer Confidence (Nov) 103.6 vs. Exp. 102.0 (Prev. 101.6); Manufacturing Business Confidence (Nov) 96.6 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 96.0, Rev. 96.1)
  • UK M4 Money Supply (Oct) 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%); BOE Consumer Credit 1.289B GB vs. Exp. 1.5B GB (Prev. 1.391B GB, Rev. 1.37B GB)
  • UK Mortgage Lending -0.05B GB vs. Exp. -0.1B GB (Prev. -0.94B GB, Rev. -0.961B GB); Mortgage Approvals 47.383k vs. Exp. 45.0k (Prev. 43.328k, Rev. 43.675k)
  • EU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Nov) 9.3 (Prev. 11.4, Rev. 11.3); Selling Price Expectations 2.3 (Prev. 3.6, Rev. 3.5); Consumer Confidence Final -16.9 vs. Exp. -16.9 (Prev. -16.9)
  • EU Services Sentiment 4.9 vs. Exp. 4.3 (Prev. 4.5, Rev. 4.6); Economic Sentiment 93.8 vs. Exp. 93.7 (Prev. 93.3, Rev. 93.5); Industrial Sentiment -9.5 vs. Exp. -8.9 (Prev. -9.3, Rev. -9.2); EU Business Climate (Nov) -0.39 (Prev. -0.33)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

ISRAEL-HAMAS

  • Israeli negotiators are offering Hamas a further three days of ceasefire through to Sunday morning if the group releases all the remaining women and children they believe it is holding, according to sources close to talks in Qatar cited by The Times.
  • G7 Foreign Ministers’ joint statement on Israel and Gaza stated that they welcome the release of hostages and the pause in hostilities, while they support a further extension of the pause and future pauses as needed.
  • White House’s Kirby said they hope to see more Americans released by Hamas and will work to see if they can extend the pause.
  • US paused drone flights over Gaza as part of the truce between Israel and Hamas, according to a Pentagon spokesperson.
  • Source close to Hamas says group willing to extend truce by four more days, according to AFP.
  • “Israeli vehicles fire their weapons at different areas northwest of Gaza City”, according to Al Arabiya.

NATO

  • US State Department senior official said Turkey’s Foreign Minister told NATO he is working on the ratification of Sweden and gave the likely timeline of a ‘few weeks’.
  • Swedish Foreign Minister says Turkey’s Foreign Minister said that ratification for Sweden’s accession to NATO could occur within weeks

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin, USD 38k, trades around the unchanged mark, whilst Ethereum, -0.2%, tilts into the red.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were mixed after the choppy performance on Wall St where stocks wavered, Treasuries rallied and the Dollar dipped on dovish Fed rhetoric, while the region also digested the RBNZ’s hawkish hold where it kept rates unchanged but signalled risks of a hike.
  • ASX 200 was positive with the index helped by encouraging data including better-than-expected Construction Work Done which feeds into next week’s GDP release and after softer monthly CPI all but guaranteed a pause at the December RBA meeting.
  • Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with early pressure from a firmer currency before the index rebounded off lows, while there were also comments from BoJ Adachi who stuck to the dovish script as he noted it is appropriate to patiently maintain easy policy and if needed, the BoJ will take additional easing steps.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with underperformance in Hong Kong after the recent rises in domestic money market rates and with the PBoC’s open market operations resulting in a net daily drain.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • China’s Vice Foreign Minister recently met with the EU’s external action service deputy secretary and said that China is ready to strengthen communication and coordination with the EU side and make preparations for a China-EU summit before the end of the year. Furthermore, it was stated that the two sides need to grasp the general direction of China-EU relations, uphold mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation, as well as fully respect each other’s core interests, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s Finance Ministry will raise the assumed interest rate paid on bonds in the government’s annual budget proposal for the first time in 17 years in fiscal 2024, reflecting policy shifts by the BoJ that have allowed yields to rise, according to Nikkei.
  • BoJ Board Member Adachi said Japan is yet to see a positive wage-inflation cycle become embedded enough and it is appropriate to patiently maintain easy policy. Adachi also stated that if needed, the BoJ will take additional easing steps, while he added that the steps the BoJ took in October to make YCC more flexible are not aimed at laying the groundwork for policy normalisation.
  • RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it reiterated that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time and interest rates are restricting spending in the economy with consumer price inflation declining as is necessary to meet the committee’s remit. RBNZ said inflation remains too high and the committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary pressures, as well as noted that demand growth has eased but by less than anticipated and if inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further. Furthermore, the committee is confident the current OCR level is restricting demand but slightly raised OCR and CPI forecasts with the OCR seen at 5.63% in March 2024 (prev. 5.58%), 5.66% in December 2024 (prev. 5.50%), and 5.56% (prev. 5.36%) in March 2025, while annual CPI is seen at 2.5% by December 2024 (prev. 2.4%).
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said in the press conference that they’ve been adamant on holding rates through next year and noted that the projection shows upward bias to rates but it is not a done deal. Orr also stated the risk to inflation is still more to the upside, while he is nervous that inflation has been outside the band for so long and concerned that longer-term inflation expectations are creeping up.
  • REUTERS POLL: Chinese New Home Prices Growth expects at +3.0% Y/Y 2023 (vs 0% in August poll); 1.1% Y/Y in 2024 (1.0% in August poll)

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Weighted CPI YY (Oct) 4.90% vs. Exp. 5.20% (Prev. 5.60%)
  • Australian Construction Work Done (Q3) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.87 PTS OR 0.56%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 360.70 PTS OR 2,08%           /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 87,17 PTS OR 0.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .31 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1277   /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1373 /Oil UP TO 77.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 82.89/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

end

3 CHINA

END

Turkey holding up Sweden’s entry into NATO and supposedly this is due to the Israeli – Hamas war.  Erdogan is after a caliphate with him as head.

(zerohedge)

Back To Deadlock: US Tells Erdogan Ratify Sweden’s NATO Entry “As Soon As Possible”

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared all the way back in July that his country’s longstanding objection to Sweden’s entry into NATO had been reverse. This was seen as the beginning of Sweden’s accession, and yet now as the year’s end approaches, it still hasn’t happened.

Certain legal and procedural hurdles remained within Turkish parliament, but it has delayed a final vote, leading to fears that Erdogan’s government is stalling due to the Israel-Gaza War.Handout/Turkish Presidency Press Office/AFP

Erdogan just a week-and-a-half ago in an incredibly awkward joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin attacked the West for allowing Israel to slaughter civilian men, women and children in Gaza. He even went so far as to say at the time that what Israel is doing is against the Jewish religion.

“Shooting hospitals or killing children does not exist in the Torah, you can’t do it,” Erdogan said. He also strongly suggested that Germany is too afraid to direct any criticisms against Israel because of the history of the Holocaust.

“I speak freely because we do not owe Israel anything. If we were indebted, we could not talk so freely,” he had said. “Those who are indebted cannot talk freely. We did not go through the Holocaust, and we are not in such a situation.” He’s also directly lashed out at Israel, calling the country “out of its mind” for the war in Gaza.

So it seems clear that a furious Turkish president is indeed stalling on Sweden’s accession over the Gaza issue. In light of this, the Untied States and France are making a new push for Turkey to come through on finalizing approval.

NATO Foreign Ministers are currently meeting in Brussels. At the meeting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan that Swedish membership must be ratified “as soon as possible”.

And French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna appealed to a sense of NATO strength and unity: “The strength and credibility of our alliance are at stake. We must not lose another day,” she said.

Amid the delay, the timing of an upcoming trip by Erdogan is also interesting:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Hungary’s capital in December, his second trip to Budapest this year at a time when both countries remain the only NATO members not to have ratified Sweden’s accession into the trans-Atlantic military alliance.

Hungary has recently lashed out at Stockholm for telling “blatant lies” concerning the state of Hungary’s democratic system. Turkey, on the other hand, has charged Sweden with hosting ‘terrorists’ – a reference to Kurdish and PKK dissidents and activists who are allowed to live in Sweden.

Sweden has taken a number of steps in the face of Turkish criticisms, including extraditing Kurdish suspects ‘wanted’ by Turkey. Ankara has even demanded at times that Sweden restrict free speech, in order to crackdown on pro-Kurdish, anti-Erdogan demonstrations on its soil.

Not helping matters, and adding fuel to Turkey’s anger, are also the recent words of the leader of the ultra-conservative Sweden Democrats’ Jimmie Åkesson, who argued that Swedish authorities must be handed the power to requisition and demolish mosques that are proven to be used to promote messages incompatible with Western values.

END

Six out of 10 welfare recipients are migrants.

(zerohedge)

Germans Have Become Welfare Piggy-Bank For Immigrants, New Govt Data Reveals

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Germany’s welfare system is being dragged down by the country’s growing immigrant population, with data from the country’s Federal Employment Agency showing that over six out of 10 welfare recipients deemed able to work are migrants.

The country’s welfare system, once referred to as Hartz IV, but now relabeled as citizen’s money (“Bürgergeld”), is now flowing to the country’s migrants, even though they make up a small share of Germany’s overall population. In fact, in some German states, they take in over 70 percent of all welfare money at a time when services and benefits are being cut for Germans across the country.

Overall, 62.6 percent of all welfare recipients are migrants, and within the 15 to 25 age group, this number goes up to 71.3 percent, according to German news outlet NIUS.

In the state of Hessen, which is home to Frankfurt, 76 percent of welfare recipients are migrants. In Baden-Württemberg 73.7 percent are migrants, in Hamburg the share is 72.3 percent, Bavaria features 64.4 percent, and in Berlin this figure is 67.8 percent. In the vast majority of states, the share is over 50 percent. Only the eastern German states, which have historically been far poorer and feature far fewer migrants, is the share below 50 percent. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has the lowest share of migrants at 29.2 percent, but it also has one of the lowest numbers of migrants in all of Germany.

The Alternative for Germany, which has called for mass deportations to help save Germany’s budget, is pointing to the data to show the failure of the current left-liberal government’s approach to migration.

“The migration policy of the last few decades has failed catastrophically,” said AfD MP René Springer, who also serves as policy spokesperson.

“Rigorous measures are now needed to stop further immigration into our social systems.”

He said this means Germany needs “complete border protection and rejections at our national borders, consistent deportations, and from now on only benefits in kind instead of cash for asylum seekers and refugees.”

Perhaps most troubling, most of these welfare recipients with a migration background were actually born in the country. That means they may be German citizens speaking German, but they are still unable or unwilling to work.

The data will further poke holes in arguments that migrants are needed to prop up Germany’s pension system and fill the country’s workplaces. Instead, migrants are choosing simply not to work and collect welfare in huge numbers.

In addition, almost 60 percent have remained unemployed for over a year, which bodes poorly for this segment of the population integrating into the workforce in the future.

Previous data shows that Germany is expected to spend an enormous €36 billion on migrants in 2023 alone at a time when inflation and unemployment are growing.

Read more here..

END

Israel receives the list as Hamas is playing games

(Jerusalem Post)

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

Israel has received the list of hostages set to be released on Wednesday evening, the Prime Minister’s Office announced on Wednesday morning. 

The families of the relevant hostages were also notified. 

end

As I stated above: they are playing games!

(JerusalemPost)

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

The release of Israeli hostages from Hamas was delayed on Wednesday evening, with senior Hamas member Mahmoud al-Mardawi saying that the delay was due to “logistical issues,” according to Arabic-language reports.

Mardawi additionally blamed Israel for difficulties in reaching an agreement on an extension of the deal.

Senior Hamas member Osama Hamdan told the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV on Wednesday night that efforts to extend the ceasefire had “not yet matured.”

“What has been presented to us so far to extend the ceasefire, we do not find worthy of study,” added Hamdan, stressing that Hamas would only accept the end of the war, the lifting of the blockade on Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Hamdan stated that Hamas would only speak about releases of soldiers held hostage if the war was ended, adding however, that the terrorist movement would consider exchanging further civilians and extending the ceasefire if Israel releases older Palestinian prisoners.

“The resistance has prepared itself for all possibilities after the end of the ceasefire,” said Hamdan. “If the occupation carries out any aggression, the resistance is ready, and if the calm continues, we will continue the calm.”

end

then finally 10 hostages were released

(Jerusalem Post)

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

The ten hostages that are set to be released on Wednesday have been handed over to the Red Cross, Hebrew media reported.

This is a developing story.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/ISRAEL VS HAMAS

IDF eliminated three terrorists who violated ceasefire – IDF spox.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 29, 2023 21:02Updated: NOVEMBER 29, 2023 21:03

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-775752&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20231129_00cd512dbae89a57f8c877a4307e1d798194e201&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140

IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari announced on Wednesday that three Palestinian terrorists were eliminated in the Gaza Strip after violating the ceasefire and posing a threat to Israeli forces.
END

This is the only way that can save bloodshed.  Please read!!

(jerusalem Post)

Hamas founder’s son calls for Israel to kill his father if hostages not released

“Israel must not compromise,” stressed the son of the Hamas co-founder.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 28, 2023 23:19

Mosab Hassan Yousef at the Jerusalem Post 2019 Annual Conference. (photo credit: JERUSALEM POST)Mosab Hassan Yousef at the Jerusalem Post 2019 Annual Conference.(photo credit: JERUSALEM POST)

Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, called for Israel to set a time limit for Hamas to release the remaining hostages it is holding and to kill Hamas leaders, including his father, if they fail to do so, in a video posted on X on Tuesday.

“Hamas has been waging psychological warfare against humanity…They want to release thousands of mass murderers back to the street in return for the Israeli hostages. Israel cannot afford this, but also humanity cannot afford this, because the release of mass murderers means the death of many other innocent people,” said Yousef.

“Israel must not compromise,” stressed the son of the Hamas co-founder.

“I understand that Israel had to compromise in the past week or two in order to release children, women, elders, and defenseless civilians. The remaining hostages, especially soldiers, those who failed to defend themselves and defend the civilians in the southern communities when they were captured, should be treated as war prisoners and Israel must shift its priority from a hostage rescue mission to an offensive that focuses on eradicating Hamas.”


Palestinian prisoners wait to be released from Ketziot prison, southern Israel, October 1, 2007. (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)Palestinian prisoners wait to be released from Ketziot prison, southern Israel, October 1, 2007. (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

Yousef warned that Hamas will attempt to stretch out negotiations indefinitely in order to avoid an end to the ceasefire.

Yousef pointed to the Hamas members being held in Israeli prisons, saying “Israel must use this card. This is the time when Israel needs to use Hamas savages in prison to pressure Hamas leadership everywhere to release the hostages.”

“Israel cannot continue like this. Prisoners like Ibrahim Hamed and Abdullah Barghouti must be sentenced to death. Hamas must have a timeframe – a month or two or six months – to return the hostages and if they don’t return the hostages within the time frame, Israel must execute top Hamas leaders in prison, especially the mass murderers.”

“When I say execute top Hamas leaders, I mean no exceptions. That includes my own father, the co-founder of the Hamas movement. In this war, there are no exceptions,” added Yousef. “I made a mistake, 10 or 15 years ago when I saved his life many times…He was supposed to die for his actions. I saved his life. Things did not change, things got worse.”

“I give the Israeli government permission to execute all Hamas top leaders in prison before we go after them in Gaza and before we go after them in Qatar. Again, I make myself very clear, no exceptions for anyone.”

“If this is what Hamas wants, the release of those mass murderers, then in my opinion this is the head of the snake,” stressed Yousef. “The head of the snake at this moment isn’t in Qatar or in Gaza, it’s in the Israeli prisons. If Israel knows how to manage and play this card against Hamas, I guarantee you the return of all the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.

Son of Hamas co-founder calls on Israel to demand Qatar expel Hamas

Yousef additionally called for Qatar not to be used as a mediator as long as it allows Hamas leaders to remain in the country and for Israel to treat Qatar as an enemy state until Qatar kicks Hamas out.

Yousef called on Israel to demand that Qatar kick out Hamas within a month and to carry out assassinations in Qatar if they aren’t kicked out.

The son of the Hamas co-founder added that, in Gaza, the IDF should concentrate on Hamas leaders and shouldn’t feel under any pressure to complete its goals within a certain timeframe. He added that the IDF should be even more careful than it already is to avoid harming civilians at this stage.

END

Not sure if this is true, but this will make all negotiations between Hamas and Israel impossible.  It is about time that Israel executes the murderers in Israeli prisons.

(Jerusalem Post)

IDF looking into Hamas claim that Bibas mother, children are dead

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 29, 2023 16:46Updated: NOVEMBER 29, 2023 17:01

The IDF said it was looking into a claim by Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades on Wednesday that Shiri, Kfir, and Ariel Bibas were killed after Hamas terrorists kidnapped the three on October 7.

“The terrorist organization Hamas continues to act in a cruel and inhuman manner,” said the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit. “IDF representatives spoke with the members of the Bibas family, informed them of the claim, and are accompanying them at this time. The IDF is examining the reliability of the information.”

“The responsibility for the safety of all the hostages in the Gaza Strip rests fully with the terrorist organization Hamas. Hamas endangers the hostages, including nine children. Hamas is required to immediately return them to Israel.”

“The IDF together with all the bodies will continue to accompany the Bibas family, as well as all the families of the hostages. The IDF is working with all means, intelligence and operational, in order to return the abductees home.”

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist groups use such announcements for psychological warfare efforts. For example, the Islamic Jihad had claimed last week that Hannah Katzir, an Israeli woman held hostage by the terrorist movement, had been killed in an airstrike, but Katzir was subsequently released alive in the first release of hostages on Friday.

END

You can certainly expect this as fights break out as they try and obtain food

(Jerusalem Post)

Palestinians beat Gazan police officer for stealing aid

Tensions rise as Gazan refugees clash with Hamas operatives in Khan Yunis over a police officer’s attempted theft from humanitarian aid stashes

By MAARIVNOVEMBER 28, 2023 21:29Updated: NOVEMBER 28, 2023 21:56

Screenshot from the video (photo credit: according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law, SOCIAL MEDIA)Screenshot from the video(photo credit: according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law, SOCIAL MEDIA)

Tensions are escalating between Gazan refugees and Hamas terrorists in Khan Yunis, as residents of the Gaza Strip were witnessed beating a Gaza policeman caught stealing food from the sections designated for humanitarian aid.

Citizens captured the incident on video and expressed that this is just the beginning.

Meanwhile, in a recent Al-Jazeera interview at Al-Aqsa Hospital, a brave Gazan citizen openly criticized Hamas, questioning why members of the organization continue to hide among the civilians.

Without addressing the citizen’s concerns, the reporter swiftly changed the topic, highlighting the citizen’s audacity to challenge the terrorist organization.

Amidst growing tensions between the displaced and Hamas authorities in Khan Younis over aid distribution, a notable video is being shared and it shows three residents who show themselves beating a Hamas policeman for stealing food. They claim they are just getting started.

witter.com/gaza_report/status/1726881498832179463?

ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1726881498832179463%7Ctwgr%5E04e555d3b3b9428a46fb9973dea1782f3cc47824%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2

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The leader of Islamic Jihad’s Jenin branch has been eliminated.  Seems to be Israel’s plan to cut of the head of the snake

(JerusalemPost)

IDF eliminates commander of Islamic Jihad’s Jenin branch

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 29, 2023 15:18

The IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police eliminated Muhammad Zubeidi, the commander of the Jenin branch of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group, amid armed clashes in Jenin on Wednesday, according to a joint statement by the IDF, Shin Bet, and police.

Zubeidi was carried out several shooting attacks and was involved in extensive terrorist activity, including the attack in which Meir Tamari was murdered near Hermesh in May

Zubeidi is related to Zakaria Zubeidi, one of the six Palestinian inmates who escaped from Gilboa Prison in 2021.

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IDF soldiers establish new synagogue in Gaza Strip

The soldiers converted one of the buildings into a space for them to pray. They added benches and a table to place their prayer books.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 29, 2023 15:21

IDF soldiers establish new synagogue in the heart of the Gaza Strip (photo credit: Amit Segal via Telegram)IDF soldiers establish new synagogue in the heart of the Gaza Strip(photo credit: Amit Segal via Telegram)

IDF soldiers established a synagogue in the heart of the Gaza Strip during the ground invasion, according to Walla. 

The soldiers converted one of the buildings into a space for them to pray. They added benches and a table to place their prayer books.

According to the government press office’s documentation, the synagogue was named Abraham Temple and it has a sign inside showing the times for prayer, which are updated daily.

IDF soldiers pray in ancient Gaza synagogue

In early November, IDF soldiers prayed in a 6th-century synagogue in Gaza, the first time in close to two decades that a Jew was allowed to worship at this holy site.IDF soldiers establish new synagogue in the heart of the Gaza Strip (credit: Amit Segal via Telegram)IDF soldiers establish new synagogue in the heart of the Gaza Strip (credit: Amit Segal via Telegram)

The ancient synagogue of Gaza, dating back to 508 CE during the Byzantine period, was unearthed in 1965. Situated in what was once the bustling port city of Gaza, known as “Maiuma” or El Mineh (the harbor) at the time, this historical site now resides within the Rimal district of Gaza City. The Egyptian archaeologists initially identified it as a church, but a remarkable mosaic featuring King David playing a lyre, labeled in Hebrew, was subsequently found.

This mosaic, measuring three meters high and 1.9 meters wide, provided insight into the art and culture of the era. Curiously, it was first mistaken as depicting a female saint playing the harp but was later associated with Orpheus, a figure from Greek mythology, with ties to Jesus or David in Byzantine art.

Sadly, the main figure’s face was damaged shortly after its discovery. Following Israel’s capture of the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Six-Day War, the mosaic was moved to the Israel Museum for restoration, where it remains a testament to the rich history of the region.Advertisement

Nowadays, visitors can marvel at the mosaic floor of the synagogue in the Museum of the Good Samaritan, located near the Jerusalem-Jericho Road close to the Israeli settlement of Ma’ale Adumim. One of the most renowned panels on the mosaic floor portrays King David, identified by a Hebrew inscription reading “David,” as he plays the lyre with a gathering of docile wild animals before him. 

Zvika Klein contributed to this article.

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YESTERDAY

We’re Not at War with Gaza

We’re at War with Hamas. Here’s how we’re facilitating aid to Gazan civilians.

LT. COL. RICHARD HECHTNOV 28
 
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Despite the operational pause, Israel is at war.

This is not a war of our choosing. On October 7th, Hamas violated an existing ceasefire, and massacred over 1200 Israelis, torturing and raping some of their victims. Hundreds more were kidnapped to Gaza, in some cases after watching their family members coldly executed.

We have vowed to dismantle Hamas’ political and military capabilities so they aren’t able to threaten Israeli citizens in the future. We’re at war with Hamas to accomplish those goals and bring our hostages home.

Thanks for reading Mission Brief from LTC Richard Hecht (Official IDF Substack)! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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The war is with Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza. It is not with the regular Palestinian civilians who have been living under oppressive Hamas rule for 16 years.

A war fought in urban areas against a terror organization that deliberately uses its own civilians as human shields is complicated. For Gazan civilians, there are tragic consequences of Hamas’ strategy which the IDF is trying to mitigate.

To that end, we’ve been facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza – and ensuring that it is getting to the people who need it.

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This aid has three main objectives:

  1. Mitigate the humanitarian consequences of the war
  2. Get aid to the civilians of Gaza
  3. Prevent the exploitation of Gazans as human shields

The Humanitarian Situation Before October 7th

Goods, power, and water were all flowing to Gaza from Israel before the October 7th massacre.

  • There was an open transfer of goods with approximately 500 trucks per day crossing from Israel into Gaza.
  • About 18,500 Gazan civilians crossed into Israel to work for salaries 3.5X greater than the average in Gaza.
  • 90% of Gaza’s water was self-sourced and another 8% was provided by Israel via 3 water lines.
  • Israel provided Gaza with 120 Mw of electricity via 10 power lines.

This infrastructure was severely damaged by Hamas during its attack on Israel on Oct 7th.

Nine out of the ten power lines were damaged, as were two of the three water lines.

Hamas terrorists also destroyed the Erez Crossing, one of the two crossings between Gaza and Israel where goods and people flowed in and out.

Aid to Gazans

During the war, the IDF and COGAT were able to repair the water lines damaged by Hamas, allowing for 2m liters of potable water a day to enter Gaza.

Col. Elad Goren, Head of the Civil Department at COGAT, discusses international coordination to facilitate aid into Gaza

Aid trucks began entering Gaza via the Rafah Crossing with Egypt on October 21st. We have ramped up operations in order to significantly increase the amount of aid now going in. Currently, 200 trucks a day are going into the Gaza Strip. In total, over 27,0000 tons of aid have entered Gaza including food, water, shelter equipment, and medical equipment.

Beginning November 22nd, we have begun allowing fuel into Gaza for humanitarian organizations.

Of course, we put in place mechanisms to ensure that only aid – and nothing but aid – can enter and be used by Hamas.

For up-to-date information, be sure to follow @cogatonline on X.

We will not stop our mission to dismantle Hamas. But we will continue to ensure aid gets to the people of Gaza.

Operational Updates

Last night, we brought home 11 Israelis who were held hostage by Hamas – nine children and two mothers.

Image

We will continue to do everything possible to bring home the remaining hostages and reunite them with their loved ones.


Quote of the Day

For the past eight weeks, IDF fighters and their commanders have been fighting with determination and defending our home. We will continue to fight and are ready for developments in other arenas, including in the north.

– IDF Chief of the General Staff, Herzi Halevi, speaking with municipal leaders in northern Israel.

Class is Now in Session

Preparing commanders for the next stage of the war.

LT. COL. RICHARD HECHTNOV 29
 
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Before I begin, a quick favor – this newsletter is about to become a top 50 news Substack worldwide. If you’ve found these updates valuable, please share it as widely as possible:

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Since Friday, we’ve been in an operational pause in Gaza.

Like I said yesterday, we’re still at war with Hamas, and this will continue until Hamas is dismantled and our hostages are home.

But what are we doing during this operational pause?

A few days ago, Chief of the General Staff LTG Herzi Halevi mentioned that the IDF was going to use the pause to “study, to better prepare our abilities and also to rest a little.”

In today’s newsletter, I want to share some details regarding a high-ranking forum that took place on Monday.

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One does not plan and then try to make circumstances fit those plans.

One tries to make plans fit the circumstances.

George S. Patton

This operational forum was convened by the IDF’s Southern Command, led by Major General Yaron Finkelman. The forum was attended by senior division commanders (brigadier generals) and brigade commanders (colonels).

The purpose of the forum was to review the main lessons learned during the first stages of the fighting and prepare for the continuation of kinetic activities in Gaza.

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Maj. Gen. Finkelman at the commander’s forum

The senior IDF commanders in attendance included:

  • Head of the Operations Directorate, Major General Oded Basiuk
  • Commanding Officer of the Ground Forces, Major General Tamir Yadai
  • Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar

The discussion focused on combat techniques, operational discipline, IDF operations, and insights into enemy activity.

There was also a session on drawing lessons from fire operations with Israeli Air Force squadron commanders.

The efforts to provide tactical insights and lessons were led by Brigadier General Guy Levy, from the Southern Command.

I can’t stress how important these forums and training sessions are for the next phase of the war.

The intelligence we’ve gained through intense combat in Gaza must reach our commanders and soldiers in the field. This forum is just one part of our effort to apply the lessons we’ve learned to accomplish our mission and defeat Hamas.

Thanks for reading Mission Brief from LTC Richard Hecht (Official IDF Substack)! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Operational Updates

  • Last night, 12 more hostages – including 10 Israelis and 2 Thai nationals – were released. We share in the joy and relief of their families and loved ones. We will not rest until we bring ALL of our people home.

Quote of the Day

“Our emotions range from joy and excitement when seeing the captives return and reunite with their families to pain and sadness, and even horror sometimes, in view of the difficult stories that we hear and the injuries that we treat — things we thought belonged to a different era in history.”

– Prof. Itai Pessach, director of the Edmond and Lily Safra Children’s Hospital at Sheba

(Source)


What I’m Reading

Held Hostage by Hamas: How Two Girls Survived Captivity in Gaza – Wall Street Journal

‘I will be haunted forever’: Israel’s horrific video of Hamas atrocities leaves viewers shocked and sickened – Fox News

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Ichilov HOSPITAL: Child will require surgery, long rehab period following captivity

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

One of the released hostages will be getting orthopedic surgery and “will need a long rehabilitation,” Israeli media reported on Wednesday citing Ichilov Hospital.

The hospital did not specify which hostage it referred to, although clarified that it was a girl. 

Doctors also told the media that some children returned from captivity having lost up to fifteen percent of their body weight. 

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Good article!

(Jerusalem Post)

Hamas’ psychological warfare: The ‘separation and deception’ method in kidnappings

Hamas is attempting to manipulate the current fragile situation and portray kidnapped individuals as being in the hands of other factions in the Gaza Strip.

By AMIR BOHBOT/WALLA!NOVEMBER 29, 2023 13:42Updated: NOVEMBER 29, 2023 14:52

Ariel Bibas, 4 (photo credit: Bring Them Home Now)Ariel Bibas, 4(photo credit: Bring Them Home Now)

A source within Israeli security agencies has suggested that Hamas is attempting to manipulate the current fragile situation and portray kidnapped individuals as being in the hands of other factions in the Gaza Strip, with the aim of preventing the return of Israeli mothers and infants.

“Hamas controls the Gaza Strip. They are the ones responsible for it,” the source explained to Walla!, “attempts to shift responsibility and conceal information, as revealed last week when they separated the infant from her mother at the last moment, will not advance negotiations for the release of the kidnapped.”

Efforts have been made to hold intermediaries accountable

According to the source, efforts have been made to hold the intermediaries accountable for the principles that both sides committed to at the beginning of the negotiations. “Otherwise, Hamas will hear renewed gunfire,” they warned. The security source also cautioned against disinformation spread by Hamas on social media, describing it as “cunning and ruthless.”

The source called on the Israeli public “to exercise patience and listen to official information regarding the release of the kidnapped” and explained that “any such distribution only serves Hamas. We must not fall into the trap of the psychological warfare they are trying to wage against Israel and the intermediaries.”Kfir Bibas, 10 months (credit: Bring Them Home Now)Kfir Bibas, 10 months (credit: Bring Them Home Now)

In addition, IDF spokesperson in Arabic, Avichay Adraee, tweeted on Monday that “Hamas treats some of the kidnapped Israelis [children and infants] as a treasure, and in some situations, they hand them over to other terror organizations in the Gaza Strip.”

Adraee highlighted the cruelty of the Hamas terrorist organization and cited the Bibas family from Kibbutz Nir Oz as an example: “The infants with red hair, the ‘Gingers,’ were kidnapped in the Nir Oz area by one of Hamas’s operatives and are currently held in the Khan Yunis region by one of the Palestinian factions.”

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YEMEN/USA

BREAKING NEWS

The idiot Biden awakens from his slumber?

(Jerusalem Post)

US Navy downs drone launched from Yemen – report

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 29, 2023 20:46

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-775750&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20231129_00cd512dbae89a57f8c877a4307e1d798194e201&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140

The USS Carney, a US Navy destroyer, downed an Iranian-made drone launched from Yemen over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday, a US official told the AP.

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GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

COVID-19 Lockdowns Linked To Memory, Cognitive Decline: UK Study

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The stringent lockdown measures implemented worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic have been found to significantly affect the working memory and cognitive function of older individuals, raising concerns about an elevated risk of dementia, according to a comprehensive UK study.An elderly resident at Santo Antonio retirement house in Figueira da Foz, waves from his window to his relatives, who stand on a manlift crane to keep their social distance, in Portugal, on May 7, 2020. (Carlos Costa/AFP via Getty Images)

Researchers in the UK delved into neuropsychology data from over 3,100 individuals aged 50 and above, examining cognitive health trends before and after the first two years of the pandemic.

The findings, drawn from the PROTECT study, a longitudinal aging initiative conducted online by the University of Exeter and Kings College London in collaboration with the National Health Service, revealed striking impacts on the cognitive abilities of the participants.

The study cohort included nearly 1,700 women and over 1,400 men. Their average age was 67.5 years.

The study, spanning from March 1, 2019 to Feb. 28, 2022, encompassed the tumultuous period marked by the enforcement of social restrictions, including social distancing, quarantine measures, and unprecedented “full societal lockdowns,” which the study noted “had not previously been experienced in living memory.”

The effects of these measures are yet to be fully established,” the authors of the study noted.

Findings from the study showed a substantial decline in executive function, which refers to higher-level cognitive skills governing control and coordination. Alongside this, the study’s cohort showed a marked decline in working memory, which is crucial for short-term memory storage and various cognitive processes.

“Significant worsening of executive function and working memory was observed in the first year of the pandemic across the whole cohort, in people with mild cognitive impairment, and in people with a history of COVID-19,” the authors wrote.

The negative impact on cognitive function persisted into the second year, notably concerning executive function across the entire cohort and working memory within specific subgroups.

Cognitive Decline

Key factors for this cognitive decline were identified via regression analyses. Those factors included the fact that, amid lockdowns, people were exercising less and consuming more alcohol across the entire cohort. These factors also contributed to more people experiencing loneliness and depression.

The authors noted that concerns were expressed about the neuropsychological effects of the pandemic social restrictions, with particular respect to the context of potentially increased dementia risk in older adults.

A 2020 Lancet commission highlighted that lifestyle and mental health factors are major contributors to cognitive health, with risk factors that can be controlled contributing to 40 percent of dementia cases.

“These factors map closely to the population-wide changes in health and lifestyle seen during and after the lockdowns, raising the important question of the effect of the pandemic on cognitive health and risk across populations,” the study’s authors wrote.

The lockdowns, which drastically changed the lifestyles of millions, led to an increased use of alcohol—according to a systematic review of 200,000 participants—a reduction in physical activity, and an increase in sedentary behavior, according to another systematic review of 86,000 participants.

This was compounded by social restrictions that resulted in less social contact and networking. The study notes that “social isolation is closely associated with loneliness, and these constructs contribute to depression.”

The study noted other studies that found a poor mental health indicators have been a growing concern compared with pre-pandemic levels. These factors are closely related to dementia risk, leading the researchers to urge more research into the “effect of the pandemic on cognitive health” for older adults.

“The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a significant worsening of cognition in older adults, associated with changes in known dementia risk factors,” the authors wrote. “The sustained decline in cognition highlights the need for public health interventions to mitigate the risk of dementia—particularly in people with mild cognitive impairment, in whom conversion to dementia within 5 years is a substantial risk.”

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Natural Immunity WINS again!! BOOM! “Our study showed that natural immunity offers stronger and longer-lasting protection against infection, symptoms, and hospitalization compared to vaccine-induced

immunity.” Uusküla et al. (NATURE); Research findings matches seminal paper published Brownstone (Dr. Paul Alexander) showing BODY of evidence that NATURAL immunity superior to vaccinal immunity, 100%

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 28
 
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‘We were able to extend the results of Gazit et al.21 by documenting a higher risk for infection and hospitalization caused not only by the Delta variant but also the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant among those with vaccine-induced immunity compared to those with natural immunity. Our study showed that natural immunity offers stronger and longer-lasting protection against infection, symptoms, and hospitalization compared to vaccine-induced immunity.’

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47043-6

‘During the Delta period, individuals with vaccine-induced immunity sustained a higher risk for infection than those with natural immunity (Delta period: IR 13.1, 95%CI 12.7–13.4 vs 3.3, 95%CI 3.2–3.5). For the Omicron period, the difference in risk diminished (IR 116.6, 95%CI 112.6–120.7 vs 115.0, 95%CI 112.2–117.9). The risks for COVID-19 hospitalization were very low in both subcohorts (see Fig. 2c and Table 2).

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‘As an Oncologist I Am Seeing People With Stable Cancer Rapidly Progress After Being Forced to Have a Booster’; reported by 2ND SMARTEST GUY IN THE WORLD, paper by Dr. Angus Dalgleish

Excellent scholarship by 2nd and Dalgleish, worth the read! Helps acutely focus on the devastating impact of the mRNA vaccines on cancers, metastasis, rapid progression, deaths; Support 2nd Smartest

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 29
 
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2nd Smartest Guy in the World

As an Oncologist I Am Seeing People With Stable Cancer Rapidly Progress After Being Forced to Have a Booster

by Dr. Angus Dalgleish There follows a letter from Dr. Angus Dalgleish, Professor of Oncology at St George’s University of London, to Dr. Kamran Abbasi, the Editor in Chief of the BMJ. It was written in support of a colleague’s plea to Dr. Abbasi that the…

Read more

2 days ago · 92 likes · 20 comments · 2nd Smartest Guy in the World

Start here:

‘There follows a letter from Dr. Angus Dalgleish, Professor of Oncology at St George’s University of London, to Dr. Kamran Abbasi, the Editor in Chief of the BMJ. It was written in support of a colleague’s plea to Dr. Abbasi that the BMJ make valid informed consent for Covid vaccination a priority topic.

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‘I just feel like killing myself’, ‘If I knew what the side effects were … I would have never gone on it’, ‘Teeth falling out due to excessive vomiting’; some low level side effects of OZEMPIC &

Wegovy & semaglutide WEIGHT LOSS medications; be very careful with these medications as reports suggest that ‘caveat emptor’, or buyer beware, it is not what you think it is

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERNOV 29
 
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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/weight-loss-drugs-ozempic-wegovy-complications-020706382.html

‘Weight-loss drugs have exploded in popularity over the last year, with people filling social media with their success stories. But these medications come with potential risks — and some are more serious than others.

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribed

As drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound become household names, there is an increasing number of testimonies from former patients about a range of complications they’ve experienced while taking the medications. Stomach paralysis, gastrointestinal illness and suicidal thoughts are just a few of the problems patients have dealt with.

Here are their stories, along with information from doctors regarding who is most at risk — as well as how to help lower the odds you’ll encounter this as well.’

Joanie Knight told CNN that she was diagnosed with severe gastroparesis, aka stomach paralysis, after taking Ozempic. (Gastroparesis is a condition that slows or even stops the movement of food from your stomach to your small intestine, leading to symptoms such as abdominal pain and vomiting, according to the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases).

“I wish I never touched it. I wish I’d never heard of it in my life,” the 37-year-old from Angie, La., said. “This medicine made my life hell. So much hell. It has cost me money. It cost me a lot of stress; it cost me days and nights and trips with my family. It’s cost me a lot, and it’s not worth it. The price is too high.” Knight said her doctor suspects her condition was either caused by the medication or exacerbated by it.

Wegovy and Ozempic: Scientists raise alarm over potentially deadly side effect from celeb-favorite fat-loss drugs that may have been MISSED in trials; Researchers warn Wegovy and similar drugs
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER·MAR 13
Wegovy and Ozempic: Scientists raise alarm over potentially deadly side effect from celeb-favorite fat-loss drugs that may have been MISSED in trials; Researchers warn Wegovy and similar drugs
‘Medical experts are warning that Wegovy and similar fat-loss shots may cause a potentially deadly side effect overlooked in trials. The blockbuster drugs work by mimicking the effects of GLP-1, a hormone that slows the movement of food through the intestines – making a person feel full for longer.
Read full storyEND
James Topp (Canadian military officer who stood up against COVID tyranny & the fraudulent deadly COVID vaccines) did so because he was SMARTER, more technically intuned than the morons at PHAC, atDR. PAUL ALEXANDER·NOV 22James Topp (Canadian military officer who stood up against COVID tyranny & the fraudulent deadly COVID vaccines) did so because he was SMARTER, more technically intuned than the morons at PHAC, atIt is a travesty to impose a financial penalty on this hero given what he has lost, and that he stood up for his military brothers and sisters who today are vaccine injured and they do not know it, many have ‘silent’ myocarditis and do not know it, and some WILL die in time due to the mRNA vaccine they took on advice by the Trudeau government, the stupi…Read full storyEND
Pandemic 2? – Mystery Respiratory Illness In ChinaDR PANDANOV 29 READ IN APP Good Morning everyone. There seems to be a lot of disinformation about the “unknown respiratory illness” going on in China (and some other parts of Europe).So it’s time to talk about the surge in respiratory illnesses across China that’s ‘overwhelming’ hospitals with sick children. The illness that is being dubbed as ‘COVID-23’ by some online.BackgroundOn Tuesday November 11, 2023 ProMED (Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases) posted a report about the undiagnosed respiratory illness in several areas in China.This snowballed into hundreds (thousands?) of reports regarding a pneumonia outbreak of unknown origin in China. That sparked concerns about the emergence of a new COVID-like pathogen.Since then social media has been abuzz with images and videos of pediatric hospitals filled with sick children, reminiscent of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. These visuals have been amplified by Dr. Eric Ding (among others), who has been actively sharing them on X/Twitter, further fueling speculation and fear.The facts are the “undiagnosed pneumonia outbreak” is actually caused by the flu and other known pathogens and not by a novel virus.The recent surge in respiratory infections has been attributed to a combination of common viruses and bacteria. These include influenza viruses, rhinoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenoviruses, and the bacterium mycoplasma pneumoniae.Mycoplasma PneumoniaeMycoplasma pneumoniae may warrant closer attention. Outbreaks, recurrent or severe infections are signs of a weakened immune system.This bacterium, typically observed during the summer and fall, is a known cause of atypical pneumonia, particularly in children and young adults.While Mycoplasma pneumoniae is generally characterized by a slow replication rate, long incubation period, and relatively low transmission rate, its association with primary immunodeficiency does raise concerns.This particlular outbreak of mycoplasma pneumoniae in China is characterized by macrolide resistance, meaning it is resistant to commonly used antibiotics like azithromycin (Z-Pak). However it can be successfully treated with fluoroquinolone antibiotics such as levofloxacin and moxifloxacin.Upgrade to paidOutbreaks Occurring Around the WorldDutch health officials have reported that 80 out of every 100,000 children aged 5 to 13 in the Netherlands contracted pneumonia last week.The Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) in Ireland has also warned of an outbreak of Mycoplasma pneumoniae, the first such occurrence in the country in “a number of years.”In the United States, a mysterious illness causing an outbreak of pneumonia in dogs is now suspected to be caused by a genus of Mycoplasma. Dr. David Needle, a veterinarian who is unraveling the cause of this canine respiratory disease has never seen it before. He believes the culprit may be a new pathogen, a novel strain of bacteria.”We found no known DNA or RNA viruses, no bacterial pathogens, no fungal pathogens,” says Needle, “We were sort of at a breaking point.”Until finally, a clue: A short segment of DNA belonging to what — as far as Needle can tell — appears to be bacteria that no one has ever described before.”We think this may be a pathogen,” he says, “It’s something novel. It’s in a proportion of the cases. It’s funky.”Specifically, it appears similar to a genus of bacteria called Mycoplasma, which lack cell walls.SummaryRegardless there is no danger. Should We Panic? No. There is no emergency but be prepared.Most doctors, especially pediatricians, are well aware of mycoplasma pneumoniae and it responds well to antibiotics. You’ve also probably had it before. Most of these cases are relatively mild. We have the antibiotics to treat it.It really sounds like they are using the same playbook as COVID. More scaretatics, calls for masks and lockdowns. Will the people take the bait and fall for it again?

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
UN Demands America Set Plan to Eliminate Meat ConsumptionThe United Nations (UN) is demanding that America issue a road map to eliminating meat consumption among the public.READ MORE
Canada Signs Deal with EU to Roll Out Global ‘Digital ID’ for PublicThe Canadian government has announced that it has signed a deal with unelected bureaucrats in the European Union (EU) to begin rolling out a new global “digital ID” system for the public.READ MORE
Hamas ‘Violates’ Ceasefire Deal, Ambushes Israeli Forces in GazaHamas terrorists have reportedly “violated” the temporary ceasefire with Israel by ambushing Israeli forces with gunfire and explosions in Gaza.READ MORE
AOC Accuses America of ‘Gross’ Human Rights Abuses in Hamas-Controlled GazaRadical celebrity Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has accused the United States of committing “human rights violations” in Hamas-controlled Gaza, which the congresswoman describes as “gross.”READ MORE
Republican AGs Slam Biden’s Anti-Christian Foster Care PlanDemocrat President Joe Biden’s new foster case plan effectively bans Christian families from fostering children, according to a group of Republican attorneys general who are raising the alarm over the scheme.READ MORE
Peter Doocy Grills Karine Jean-Pierre on ‘Bidenomics’: ‘Americans Are Not Buying It’Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy grilled Joe Biden’s Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre over the Democrat president’s so-called “Bidenomics” economic plan.READ MORE
Republicans Push for Full Investigation into Jan 6House Republicans are pushing to launch a full investigation into the Democrats’ anti-Trump Jan. 6 Committee.READ MORE
Reinforcements Deployed to Southern Border as Border Patrol Becomes ‘Overwhelmed by Migrants’U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been forced to deploy reinforcements to help address the Southern Border crisis. READ MORE
Almost a Dozen House Democrats Are Not Seeking Re-Election in 2024Several House Democrats have announced that they won’t be seeking re-election in 2024 and will vacate their seats.READ MORE
Trump Releases Mugshot-Themed Christmas Wrapping Paper: ‘Never Surrender’President Donald Trump has released wrapping paper for the Christmas season featuring his own mugshot.READ MORE
Wisconsin Museum Features ‘Satanic Tree’ at Christmas Festival: ‘Cultural Propaganda’A Wisconsin museum has provoked a widespread backlash over its Christmas festival featuring a “Satanic tree” and a stand that promotes radical gender ideology to children.READ MORE
NY Gov Hochul Unveils Plan to Teach Kids How to Tackle ‘Crisis’ of ‘Misinformation’ and ‘Hate Speech’New York’s Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul has unveiled a “media literacy kit” that seeks to teach children how to “combat online hate” and “misinformation.”READ MORE
Biden Pushes $106 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine, Israel, TaiwanDemocrat President Joe Biden and his administration are pushing for billions of dollars in taxpayer money to fund an aid package for three foreign nations.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

Covid Shots Promote ‘Hyperprogressive Cancers,’ New Evidence ShowsREAD MORE… 
LATEST NEWS:
Nancy Pelosi’s Daughter Secretly Filmed Boasting Jan 6 Was a HoaxREAD MORE… 
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

“I Wish It Could Be Christmas Every Day”

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 10:20 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

I wish it could be Christmas every day

It’s not even December, but in the UK you always know Yuletide season has arrived when Slade’s ‘Merry Xmas Everybody’ and Wizzard’s ‘I Wish It Could Be Christmas Every Day’ start to play.

For markets, everything is already wizzard, and we are there regarding Christmas, it seems. Especially now hawkish members of the Federal Reserve are offering goodwill to all asset classes.

In particular, we’ve just heard the Fed’s Waller state: “I’m increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. I’m encouraged by what we’ve learned in the past few weeks – something appears to be giving, and it’s the pace of the economy.” Moreover, there was this gift: “If you see this [lower] inflation continuing for several more months, I don’t know how long that might be –3 months? 4 months? 5 months?–you could then start lowering the policy rate because inflation’s lower.“/-

In Nobby Holder’s immortal, gravely, Brummie voice: “IT’S RAAAAAAATE CUUUTS!”

And perhaps as soon as H1 2024: even Bill Ackman, so bearish bonds so recently, now thinks it’s Q1. Indeed, Bloomberg notes those who have been at the brandy or eggnog a little early are pricing for the possibility of the Fed cutting by 250bps in 2024(!)

That backdrop is all tinsel, mistletoe, presents under the tree, roaring log fires, tipsy staff parties, eating chocolates in your pyjamas at noon while watching classic movies,…

…and yet just as logically, much higher corporate bankruptcies and leaping levels of unemployment, much lower pay rises or pay cuts, and a looming cold January immiseration just ahead of the 2024 US elections.

Unless you believe in Santa and a soft landing for the US economy – which some clearly do.

Jubilant markets who listened to Waller didn’t follow up by listening to Bowman warning that “It’s quite possible that Fed policy will need to be at a higher level than before the pandemic to foster low, stable inflation.” Bah, humbug to all that kind of thing!

Equally, markets chose to overlook that ahead of the OPEC+ decision on more potential supply cuts, benchmark oil prices leaped 2% right after Waller spoke. It was Christmas there for sure.  And that’s just a foretaste of what we can expect to see in all kinds of commodities and assets if the Fed, then every major central bank, U-turn back to financialisation over physical production.

Most so given the US is in a Cold –with hot patches– War with China (whose dual-use items are on the Russian side in Ukraine), Russia (who wants to building a tunnel to Crimea with China), Iran (who is buying Russian military jets and selling them its drones), and North Korea (who is selling ammo to Russia, and moving heavy arms to the border with South Korea). Those Party guests may help every jingle-bells step in a commodity rally with deliberate supply destruction: we wait for that OPEC+ news; and now Russia might impose a ban on grain exports if their stocks fall to 10m tons, Izvestia reported on Tuesday.

But then again, Russians have their own Christmas as a funny time, so we can all ignore it, right?

Meanwhile, even with rates and real yields (in CPI terms) whe*+re they are — back in line with what used to be normal until 2008, rather than the post-2008 aberration– financialisation has rolled on anyway.

Yes, the US stock market is flat except for the Magnificent Seven, but they are waaaay up; bonds are back in the money given the sudden plunge in yields that is already easing financial conditions before the Fed does; and in Australia, housing continues to go through the roof at crazy auction after crazy auction.

Imagine what things will look like if we really are going to see 250ps of rate cuts within 12 months! And I don’t mean that in a good way.

That said, Australia’s October inflation surprised to the downside at 4.9% y-o-y vs. consensus of 5.2%. Ben Picton notes the series is heavily weighted to goods, and we are now seeing deflation in clothing and footwear, and just 0.4% y-o-y growth in furnishings and household goods, which looks like disinflation imported from China. However, services inflation remains an issue the RBA is worrying about in public. Even so, Ben thinks this material CPI miss supports our current forecast of 4.35% being the top in the Aussie cash rate, despite hawkish talk from Governor Bullock. The sun is always shining on an Aussie Xmas, after all.

Ben also notes the RBNZ left the OCR at 5.50% today, as expected by the market and in line with our forecast. Yet there was a lump of coal in the stocking given an upgrade to its forecast rates path, with the average now seen peaking at 5.69% in Q3, and expected cuts pushed back until mid-2025. The new government’s promise to change the RBNZ’s dual mandate back to a singular focus on price stability, and an exploration of a more concrete definition on how long inflation can be allowed to remain above target might explain some of that. Even so, Governor Orr noted population growth is increasing inflation risks and he retains an upwards rate bias.

(By contrast, the RBA continues to say immigration is both inflationary and deflationary: which implies it pushes up rents and house prices, but pushes down wages – a combination some suspect voters may eventually go somewhat ‘Wilders’ about.)

In short, I would like to underline, again, that this ‘raaaaaaaaate cuuuuuuts!’ party really started with a US CPI print that was 0.1% below expectations month on month only because of ridiculous statistical assumptions about price of health insurance (which it didn’t actually measure). To which I say, what a load of baubles!

—–

Are you hanging up your short calls on the wall? It’s time for all fund-managers to have a ball

Do they ride the green line higher? Do they make a ton twice a day?

Do they ask for a nice bump-up in their pay?

So here it is, Merry Christmas; Everybody’s having fun

Look to future rate cuts now; the bubble’s only just begun

Are you waiting for fund stragglers to arrive? Are you sure you got enough leverage on side?

Does your trader always tell ya; That the old moves are the best?

Then he’s up and buy-the-dipping with the rest

So here it is, Merry Christmas; Everybody’s having fun

Look to future rate cuts now; the bubble’s only just begun

Are you hanging up your bear calls on the wall? Are you hoping that some prices start to fall?

Did you ride on down the yield curve; On a narrative you’d made?

You landed on your head; but rate cuts mean you’re saved!

So here it is, Merry Christmas; Everybody’s having fun

Look to future rate cuts now; the bubble’s only just begun

It’s RAAAAAAAATE CUUUTS

END

The Diesel euro: Europe Is Guzzling Russian Oil In The Form Of Indian Diesel Imports

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 07:45 AM

As western politicians ever so theatrically pretend to sanction Russian oil imports (just so they can signal to their voters just how virtuous they are), especially now that the war in Ukraine is almost over with the US and Germany “pressing Kyiv to end the nearly two-year old conflict”, and have gone so far as to ‘demand’ Greek tankers no longer transport Russian oil (something which most of the Greek dark fleet is and will continue to do), the true comedy is just how hard everyone is working behind the scenes to keep the status quo in place. For a glaring example of western hypocrisy look no further than the Russia-India-Europe petrodollar or rather dieseleuro triangle, where one year after banning most oil shipments from Russia, Europe is now binging on Indian diesel…  that was made from Russian crude.

Europe’s imports of diesel from India, one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude, are on course to soar to 305,000 barrels a day, the most since at least January 2017, the latest data market-intelligence firm Kpler show.

While it’s not possible to say with certainty that the molecules originated in Russia as India also processes oil from elsewhere – although a blockchain lifecycle tracing would be most useful in this regard – Moscow’s soaring (and cheap) oil exports to India have given Indian refineries an ability to produce abundant diesel and boost both profits and exports.

According to Bloomberg, arrivals into Europe in November include a rare shipment from Mumbai-based Nayara Energy, which imported almost 60% of its crude from Russia this year, according to Kpler. Reliance Industries, Europe’s top supplier of Indian diesel, draws more than third of its crude from Russia, the figures show.

The surge in diesel imports from India illustrates a hilarious shift in oil trading in the wake of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, which shows that for all its rhetoric, all Europe has managed to do is shoot itself in the foot and pay more: a year ago, Russia was Europe’s top supplier of diesel, a fuel vital to the industrial and transport sectors (or not so vital now that Europe is in a stagflationary recession). Then, the EU banned most seaborne imports of Russian crude in December and oil products in February. In response, Europe and the UK have sought diesel supplies from other markets and India has been delighted to help fill the giant Russian supply gap as European imports from the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia slumped in November, while arrivals of Saudi diesel are set to drop to about 94,000 barrels a day, the lowest since February 2020 (largely due to planned local refinery maintenance, boosting interest for Indian diesel).

And the punchline: to produce the distillates demanded by Europe, India has been importing record amounts of Russian oil which it then processes before reselling onward to, you guessed it, Europe.

Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, as the West shuns Russian oil, “Moscow has found increased appetite for its crude in Asia. Indian refiners have been able to purchase Russian crude at a discount and sell the processed oil in markets, like Europe, where diesel is in high demand.”

“The 1.6-1.8 million barrels a day of Russian crude that Indian refiners buy creates a competitive edge that others do not have,” according to Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler.

The share of Indian diesel flows to Asia now accounts for about 19% of the country’s total exports of the fuel, compared with 33% last year, he said. Much of that volume has been diverted to Europe. In total, Europe’s imports of diesel and gasoil this month are set to rise to 935,000 barrels a day, a 5% increase from October, Kpler data show.

Still, with everyone now able to see between the lines in Europe’s hypocrisy, it is getting a more difficult to keep the charade going, and today India was considering whether to allow a now-sanctioned tanker carrying Russian oil to approach and dock at one of its ports—a sign that the U.S. clampdown on Russian crude trade could limit India’s ability to buy and import cheaper oil.  

The NS Century tanker is owned by Russia’s state-owned fleet owner Sovcomflot and is flying the flag of Liberia. The Aframax vessel has been floating for 10 days about 1,600 miles off the Indian port of Vadinar, where it was planned to deliver its cargo of Russia’s Sokol grade, Bloomberg reports, citing tanker-tracking data.

.NS Century has been floating off Sri Lanka since November 17, a day after the U.S. sanctioned several maritime companies and three vessels for transporting Russian oil above the G7-set price cap.

The U.S. said on November 16 that the vessels Kazan, Ligovsky Prospect, and NS Century engaged in the export of Russian crude oil priced above $60 per barrel after the crude oil price cap took effect. The Kazan, Ligovsky Prospect, and NS Century used U.S.-person services while transporting the Russian-origin crude oil.   

The Directorate General of Shipping in India told Bloomberg last week that it was still waiting for government guidance on whether the NS Century would be allowed to unload its cargo at the Indian port.

As we reported over the weekend, the West is considering toughening up the sanction enforcement on evaders of the price cap on Russian oil, almost none of which now trades below the ceiling of $60 per barrel. Last month, the United States took a tougher stance on the sanctions against Russia and sanctioned two vessels for violating the price cap. Meanwhile, three major Greek shipping firms had halted the transport of Russian crude due to the heightened risk of facing U.S. sanctions.

END

Saudis Pushing For Additional 1 Million Barrel OPEC+ Output Cut, May Come As Soon As Thursday

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 01:07 PM

Ahead of the already once-delayed OPEC+ virtual meeting tomorrow – which may or may not be delayed again – the leaks, trial balloons and outright manipulation by various cartel delegates is approaching a level that would make the Fed and ECB blush.

In the latest such leak, moments ago the WSJ largely repeated what we already reported last week, namely that to halt the drop in oil price, most OPEC+ members are considering – and in favor of – an additional 1 million barrels per day production cut. And while delegate sources confirmed that Nigeria and Angola, the two biggest African oil producers, still resist a downgrade of their individual quotas, as does the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is in favor of the new cuts. And what Saudi Arabia wants, it usually gets.

The move, which would likely send oil prices higher, could be announced Thursday at a virtual meeting of the cartel, although a deal for further cuts isn’t assured, and the prospect is still facing significant resistance.

As a reminder, Saudi Arabia in June cut production by 1 million barrels, in a unilateral move as part of a deal with the other members of the Vienna-based group. Any cuts announced Thursday would be in addition to those announced in June, and would likely draw a rebuke from the U.S., which slammed 13-strong OPEC and its 10 Russia-led allies for agreeing to a cut of 2 million barrels a day last year. The White House – which is terrified of a spike in gasoline prices in the 2024 election year realizing it would all but cement Joe Biden’s loss next November, called the decision by the so-called OPEC+ alliance shortsighted and suggested the group was actively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Separately, the WSJ reported that the delegates said the Middle East conflict hadn’t been brought up in the OPEC conversations.

The OPEC talks also come as global industry and political leaders arrive in Dubai for the United Nations climate summit, where the role of major oil-producing countries in reducing emissions will again be a major topic of discussion. As a reminder, the UAE continues to push against further cuts and thus the fact that Saudi Arabia arranged for the OPEC meeting to take place at the same time as the climate summit suggests that Riyadh is not very pleased with its neighbor.

Brent oil, the most widely traded contract, was down since the Oct. 7 middle-east turmoil by 7% to about $82 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, which has embarked on an ambitious program of projects, including a giant new city in the desert, needs a fiscal break-even oil price of as much as $88 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.

Oil reacted to the latest OPEC+ meeting trial balloon news by first spiking, then sliding as traders assumed that the news had already been leaked earlier explaining the bounce since the 10am ET DOE report of rising inventories, before rising near session highs again.

this carbon agenda is nothing but a fraud.  Glad Alberta will not partake in any of this

(zerohedge)

Alberta Premier Defies Trudeau Carbon Agenda – Invokes Sovereignty Act

TUESDAY, NOV 28, 2023 – 09:05 PM

It is an action which multiple red states in the US have undertaken: Blocking carbon controls ingrained in “green power” initiatives conjured by the federal government

Now it appears the momentum has spread to Canada through Alberta’s conservative leadership as Premier Danielle Smith defies the Trudeau regime by invoking the province’s recently drafted Sovereignty Act.

The Sovereignty Act is designed to give Alberta’s legislative assembly the power to identify any federal programs or actions that violate Alberta’s constitution, the government would then refuse to implement those programs.  The implementation of the act means that finally, an open dialogue on the existential threat of the UN’s “sustainable development goals” and Agenda 2030 has begun in Canada.  

The reasons for opposition to “Net Zero” objectives have been repeated over and over again by political critics, economic critics and scientific critics alike. 

  • First, net zero as the UN defines it is impossible using existing green technologies with inefficient and costly power generation. 
  • Second, in most cases net zero proponents refuse to acknowledge the usefulness of nuclear power as a means to reduce reliance on oil and gas. 
  • Third, net zero would require perpetual authoritarian oversight of individual carbon emissions and probably population reduction in the near term. 
  • Fourth, none of the above even matters because there’s no concrete evidence whatsoever of a causational relationship between man-made carbon and global warming.

In other words, the supposed crisis is a fraud and there’s no reason for any nation, province or state to sacrifice their power grids. 

Beyond the big con, stagflation has made carbon controls economically impossible.  Aggressive price spikes since 2020 make gas, oil and coal more important than ever in maintaining basic services for the populace along with the needs of industry.  Reducing available supply in the face of desperate demand would only fuel the fires of inflation further.  Even Europe has been reverting back to “villainous” energy sources like coal to keep things running. 

When people face the possibility of freezing or starving there is little chance they are going to listen to unfounded claims of climate doomsday from a bunch of ultra-rich yacht sailing private jet-setting carbon-spewing hypocrite elites.

END

Bottleneck at Panama Canal forces top taner operator to re route ships at higher costs

(zerohedge)

Bottleneck On Panama Canal Forces Top Tanker Operator To Reroute Ships

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 08:10 AM

Panama Canal is one of the world’s most important trade routes. In the second half of this year, we have detailed in-depth about a parking lot of commercial vessels building on either side of the canal amid worsening drought conditions across Central America. This has reduced the number of ships sailing through the waterway, as the bottleneck has forced one of the world’s largest operators of chemical tankers to reroute its fleet. 

Bloomberg reports that London-based Stolt-Nielsen has begun to charge customers for longer routes, avoiding the massive bottleneck at the Panama Canal. 

The canal has been battered by a severe drought this year caused by the El Niño phenomenon (read: here & here). As a result, canal authorities have imposed sailing restrictions to 25 a day. And if conditions worsen, restrictions could end up with only 18 vessels transiting the waterway daily by February. For some context, the maximum number of sustainable bookings is between 38-40 per day. 

Instead of the Panama Canal, Stolt-Nielsen’s chemical tankers are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or through the Strait of Magellan off the tip of South America. The extra distance has forced customers to pay additional transiting costs. Those numbers weren’t revealed in the report. 

“Stolt Tankers has found that the service through the Panama Canal has become increasingly unreliable in recent months,” the company said in an email response to Bloomberg. 

The email continued, “Our customers need reassurance that their cargo will arrive on time to avoid negatively impacting their supply chains, therefore, we have been rerouting our ships via the Suez Canal.”

Experts believe canal authorities will increase traffic once the rainy season begins mid-2024. Some vessels have waited nearly three weeks to pass through the waterway. According to Stolt-Nielsen, other shipping companies are notifying customers about similar strategies to manage the congestion at the canal. 

END

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0985 DOWN  0.0020

USA/ YEN 147.66 UP .593  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2692  DOWN    0.0021

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3574 UP 8 (CDN DOLLAR  DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN  16.87 PTS OR 0.56%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 360.70  PTS OR 2.08%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .31%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE:  ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 360.70 PTS OR 2.08%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN  16.87 PTS OR 0.56%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.31%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 87.17  PTS OR 0.26%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2040.00

silver:$24.98

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 102.73 UP 8 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

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Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.075%  DOWN 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.673% DOWN 8 AND  2//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.425 DOWN 7  in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.168 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4215 DOWN 7  BASIS PTS

END

Euro/USA 1.0974 DOWN  0.0030 or 30  basis points

USA/Japan: 147.38 UP .312 OR YEN DOWN 312 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2696  DOWN  0.0017  OR 17  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0026 OR 26 BASIS pts  to 1.3592

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (UP) …7.1309

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1377)

TURKISH LIRA:  28.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.673…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.275% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.476 DOWN 7  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.662 DOWN 7  BASIS PTS.

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.78  POINTS or 0.43%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 173.78 PTS OR 1.09%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 59.20 PTS OR 0.59%

Spain IBEX UP 311.79  PTS OR 1.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 34.45 PTS OR 0.12%

WTI Oil price  76.44   12: EST

Brent Oil:  81.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  88,60;   ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  18//100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4215 DOWN 7  BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1450 DOWN 6  BASIS PTS

Euro vs USA: 1.0973  DOWN   0.0032   OR 32 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2693 DOWN   .0019 or 19 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.129%  DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .673%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147,29 UP .228 //YEN  DOWN 22  BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3594 UP 0.0028 CDN dollar  DOWN 28   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 77,75

Brent OIL:  83.01

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7  BASIS pts to 4.265%  

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8  BASIS PTS to 4.442%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 10 PTS AT  4.646 %

USA dollar index: 102.76 UP 11  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.93 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  88,55  UP 0  AND  89/100 roubles

GOLD  2044.80 3:30 PM

SILVER: 24.98  3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 13,84 PTS OR 0.04%

NASDAQ DOWN 22.83 PTS OR 0.14%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.97 UP .28 PTS (2.21)%

GLD: $189.54 UP 0.26 OR 0,15%

SLV/ $22.88 DOWN .04 OR 0.17%

end

Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold All Bid As Rate-Cut Hopes Ramp-Up

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Inflation down (in Europe) and Growth up (in US) prompted more ‘goldilocks’ narrative calls today.

But, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey pointed out, 3Q GDP is in the rearview mirror, and the implications of the report (and other releases today) for 4Q GDP growth were not good. In fact, Goldman lowered their 4Q23 GDP growth forecast by 50bp to +1.4% today as the October trade and inventory reports – also released today – came in light and gross domestic income rose by only 1.5% in 3Q – well below the pace of GDP.

All of which pushed rate-cut expectations higher again (now 125bps of cuts priced in for 2024)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the first rate-cut timing has now moved to May from June…

Source: Bloomberg

…and sent Treasury yields even lower on the week (once again led by the short-end, 2Y -9bps, 30Y -6bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

As we noted earlier, November is set to be bonds’ best month since 2008 as 10Y and 30Y Yields are down a stunning 65bps…

Source: Bloomberg

Sadly, The Fed seems completely disconnected and stuck with its old narrative as SF Fed’s Mester proclaimed that “broad tightening in financial conditions is helping curb demand”. That may well have been true until you muppets started jawboning about how “the market is doing The Fed’s job” and that you’re near the end of the cycle. Financial conditions have massively loosened in the last month…

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks remain on pace for their 4th best month in the last 12 years, early gains into the cash open were gradually sold into with Nasdaq and S&P the biggest losers and Small Caps holding on to decnet gains despite late-day selling-pressure (ahead of tomorrow’s PCE)…

‘Most Shorted’ stocks were squeezed again – up to recent resistance – and reversed modestly from there…

Source: Bloomberg

Meme stocks are soaring again as Goldman’s ‘Retail Favorites’ hits a new cycle high…

Source: Bloomberg

…But, the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks were lower overall with huge 0-DTE call-covering early and late…

Source: SpotGamma

The bull-steepening continued in bond-land with 2s30s up to -16bps on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

…as 2Y yields fell to their lowest since June…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar managed gains on the day after 4 down days in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was marginally lower on the day with Bitcoin

Source: Bloomberg

Gold prices continued their charge towards new record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

And notably, silver has started to outperform very recently, breaking above its downtrend relative to gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices pumped and dumped ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting (after increased production cut rumors trumped across-the-board inventory builds and record US production)…

Finally, we note that historically, spikes in geopolitical risk have driven higher volatility. But, as Goldman Sachs points out in a note today, the latest spike in risk has not been accompanied by a meaningful spike in the VIX…

Source: Goldman Sachs

Goldman clearly doesn’t believe it’s different this time and recommends taking advantage of the low level of volatility in both equities and ‘safe assets’ (ex bonds) to focus on hedges.

EARLY MORNING TRADING//

TUCKER CARLSON

II USA DATA

END

END

Ackman Flip-Flops, Now Sees First Rate Cut As Soon As March

WEDNESDAY, NOV 29, 2023 – 10:45 AM

Two weeks ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Nov 14 Fed dovish decision to keep rates on hold which even Powell’s own WSJ mouthpiece Nikileaks, aka Nick Timiraos, admitted killed any chance for more rate hikes, we said that with July now the Fed’s last rate hike, “it takes 8 months on average from the last rate hike to the first rate cut. So March

Fast forward to Tuesday when none other than the Fed’s (formerly?) uber-hawkish governor Chris Waller, yanked the carpet from under the herd of “higher for longer” sheep, when he pivoted the Fed’s messaging on its latest dovish trajectory, saying that he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. I’m encouraged by what we’ve learned in the past few weeks – something appears to be giving, and it’s the pace of the economy.”

And then there was this “If you see this [lower] inflation continuing for several more months, I don’t know how long that might be –3 months? 4 months? 5 months?–you could then start lowering the policy rate because inflation’s lower.

Addressing this shocker, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wrote that Waller “lent the most credible voice to the scenario… that with the current pace of the disinflationary trajectory being way ahead of schedule, that the Fed will likely need to CUT RATES as the next move, simply in order to prevent policy from being either overly restrictive, or even worse, “tightening” further via “real rates” as inflation craters…and critically now, legitimizing the Fed “cutting” rates even WITHOUT a Recession being required, which I’d posit is a scenario that most outside of the Macro Rates space didn’t really know had any Delta.”

In-doing so, Waller also put a time horizon on this sea-change (potentially requiring “just” three to five more months of current disinflation trend to confirm), which to McElligott means that “we could hypothetically get said “soft landing cuts” as soon as March / May 2024—which then ushered in a whole new distribution of implied Fed policy rate projections” as we saw 115-120bps of cuts now priced-in, and pulling-forward the first full cut into May from June.

So, yeah, suddenly March emerges as an all too likely first rate cut day… just as we first said two weeks ago.

But it wasn’t only a Fed governor agreeing with us: none other than billionaire Bill Ackman, best known for his staunchly bearish Treasury position (borne by his conviction that inflation and rates are going higher) which he only covered just a few weeks ago, flip-flopped overnight, when speaking to David Rubenstein, he said that “I think they’re going to cut rates sooner than people expect.” Ackman then clarified that such a move could happen as soon as the first quarter… i.e, March.

“We’re betting that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut rates more quickly than people expect,” Ackman said in an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations. “That’s the current macro bet that we have on.”

Ackman then paraphrased Waller saying that “what’s happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines.” The Pershing Square boss, who has a penchant to appear in tears on CNBC any time a trade doesn’t quite go his way, said that if the Fed keeps rates in the roughly 5.5% range when inflation trends below 3%, “that’s a very high real rate of interest.”

Ackman also told Rubenstein he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a so-called soft landing, a scenario where the Fed raises interest rates without triggering a recession. “I think there’s a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates pretty soon,” said Ackman, noting that he’s seen evidence of a weakening economy.

Of course, not everyone agrees that a rate cut is coming and this morning, the OECD warned that inflation could force central banks in western Europe to keep interest rates higher next year than financial markets expect, despite some of the weakest global growth rates since the financial crisis.

In its latest economic outlook, the Paris-based organisation said it expected the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to hold benchmark rates at their current peaks until 2025 — much longer than the markets are expecting — because of persistent inflationary pressures.

Clare Lombardelli, OECD chief economist, said that, while the organisation expected a “soft landing”, it was too soon to cut borrowing costs.

“Monetary policy is going to have to remain restrictive for a period of time — we are still worried about inflation persistence,” she told the Financial Times. “You are going to need real rates to be high.”

Ironically, the OECD also made the dovish case, when it forecast that growth in the world economy would weaken to 2.7% next year, the most sluggish rate since the financial crisis except for the first year of the pandemic, and in danger of sliding into recession absent more rate cuts.

And while the Fed cutting rates is a certainty, and a matter of when not if, the real question is what crisis will the central bank throw into the mix to also greenlight what the catastrophic US fiscal situation truly needs: not rate cuts (which will lower rates on Treasuries and thus trim demand for them further) but QE, because in a country where the debt rises by $1 trillion every 3 months and where taxpayers are increasingly unwilling to hand over their money to either Zelenskyy or Netanyahu via the Biden administration’s spending like a drunken sailor, only the Fed’s unlimited monetization of record US deficits will keep this particular circus going.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ackman-flip-flops-now-sees-first-rate-cut-soon-march

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ANTISEMITISM

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES

END

The King Report November 29, 2023 Issue 7128Independent View of the News
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for November is 102; 101 was expected.  However, the big story is that October was revised to 99.1 from 102.6!  The November Present Situation is 138.2.  October was revised to 138.6 from 143.1.  The November Expectations is 77.8; October was revised to 72.7 from 75.6.  Why did Conference Board statisticians botch October metrics so badly?  Why have there been so many downward revisions to US economic data?  Qui bono?
 
Fed’s Bowman Favors Hiking Rates If Inflation Progress Stalls – BBG 10:43 ET
My baseline economic outlook continues to expect that we will need to increase the federal funds rate further to keep policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% target in a timely way,” Bowman said in a speech in Salt Lake City, Utah. “However, monetary policy is not on a preset course, and I will continue to closely watch the incoming data as I assess the implications for the economic outlook and the appropriate path of monetary policy.”
     Later in the speech, Bowman said: “I remain willing to support raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or is insufficient to bring inflation down to 2% in a timely way.”…
    Additional risks to inflation include higher services consumption, a lack of fiscal restraint and households’ significant excess savings, she said
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-28/fed-s-bowman-favors-hiking-rates-if-inflation-progress-stalls#xj4y7vzkg
 
Though Fed Gov. Bowman’s remarks are mildly hawkish, some of the usual suspects spun Bowman as being dovish because she previously stated that rates should be hiked.  ‘I’m not joking!’
 
Fed’s Waller Signals Support for Keeping Interest Rates Steady – BBG 11:10 ET
Waller says can’t say for sure policymakers have done enough
    “I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%…
 
Fed likely done raising interest rates; Waller flags possible cut
If we see disinflation continuing for several more months – I don’t know how long that might be, three months, four months, five months … you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation’s lower.”…  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-waller-increasingly-confident-policy-is-right-spot-2023-11-28/
 
Traders Hungry for Clues on Fed Easing Ignore Hawks at Own Peril – BBG
Markets are reading Fed Governor Waller’s comments about tight-enough policy as dovish, while ignoring more hawkish remarks from Gov. Michelle Bowman… He emphasized, however, that inflation remains too high and it’s still too early to be fully confident that recent progress is sustainable…
 
USZs rallied on the early ‘Fed Talk’.  However, after hitting a peak of 116 18/32 at 12:02 ET, USZs sank to 115 31/32, -2/32 for the day, after an ugly 7-year ($39B) auction.  7-year high 4.399%, WI 4.378%, tail 2.1bps, largest tail since November 2022.   USZs rebounded to 116 15/32 by the NYSE close on what appeared to be some defensive asset allocation.  (ESZs were soft until the late manipulation.)
 
Tuesday’s King Report: If bonds retrench today, it will lead credence to the perception that someone is manipulating bonds into large US Treasury Auctions to aid and abet the US Treasury
 
ESZs traded within a 5-handle range, and mostly positive, from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after the Nikkei close.  After hitting a low of 4550.50 at 3:44 ET, ESZs rallied to 4560.50 at 5:12 ET.  ESZs then sank to the daily low of 4547.00 at 8:10 ET.  It was time to get long for the US Pump & Dump.
 
ESZs hit 4556.75 at 9:27 ET.  The dump started early; ESZs slid to 4549.25 at 9:41 ET.  ESZs and stocks then traded sideways in a tight range until Waller induced manic buying.  ESZs soared to the daily high of 4577.25 at 11:44 ET.  ESZs and stocks then tanked in concert with bonds after the putrid 7-year auction.
 
ESZs bottomed (4551.75) at 13:01 ET.  An A-B-C rally took ESZs to 4563.50 at 14:54 ET.  They retreated to 4554.00 at 15:21 ET.  The late manipulation began and 14:42 ET and took ESZs to 4565.50 at 15:50 ET.  Stocks and ESZs then traded sideways into the NYSE close.
 
Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math – BBG
It now requires $119.27 to buy the same goods and services… (that cost) $100 before the pandemic
     Groceries are up 25% since January 2020. Same with electricity. Used-car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rents roughly 20%. Those figures help explain why Americans continue to register strong dissatisfaction with the economy: Consumers’ daily routines have largely returned to their pre-pandemic normal, but the cost of living has not… And the government data reports that show easing inflation are cold comfort, because they simply indicate prices are growing at a slower pace, not that they are returning to early 2020 levels.
    At the same time, housing affordability is at its worst on record, auto-loan rates have soared, and borrowing with a credit card has never been so expensive…
    In October 2020, a Census Bureau survey showed a four-person household spent an average of $238.32 in a week on food at home. Three years later, a similar survey showed that figure had jumped to $315.22 — roughly 32% more… https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-inflation-economy-cost-of-living/
 
Positive aspects of previous session
US equity indices, ex the DJTA, rallied modestly on Fed Talk
USZs rallied 14/32 on Fed Talk and apparent asset allocation
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks act tired and listless
February Gold rallied sharply, hitting a high of 2064.20, + 31.20 for the day
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is someone manipulating USZs into US debt auctions to aid & abet the US Treasury?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4554.51
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low4568.14; 4540.51
 
@paulsperry_: Pfizer’s top advertising/marketing firm — Publicis Groupe — also happens to be to a top investor in NewsGuard. And NewsGuard’s top cop policing vax “misinformation” in the news happens to be the son of a top Pfizer executive. It doesn’t get more sleazy, folks.
 
The FT: Senior CIA official posted pro-Palestine image on her Facebook page
A top CIA official posted a pro-Palestine image on Facebook two weeks after Hamas attacked Israel, in a rare public political statement by a senior intelligence officer on a war that has sparked dissent within the Biden administration… https://www.ft.com/content/285e1f90-9f69-4f3b-b4a9-b77b6ca97e7a
 
@TheInsiderPaper, citing the FT: The CIA’s associate deputy director for analysis changed her Facebook cover photo on Oct 21 to an image of a man waving a Palestinian flag that is often used in stories criticizing Israel. The Financial Times has decided not to name her after the intelligence agency expressed concern about her safety
 
CIA Official’s Pro-Palestinian Facebook Post Raises Concerns about Neutrality
The incident may prompt an internal review to assess whether any agency policies regarding personal use of social media by its employees have been violated. Most organizations have social media guidelines in place to prevent any potential conflict of interest or bias…
https://bnn.network/politics/cia-officials-pro-palestinian-facebook-post-raises-concerns-about-neutrality/
 
Israel says cease-fire terms violated by 3 detonations, gunfire; IDF soldiers injured
http://www.mr-mehra.com/2023/11/israel-says-cease-fire-terms-violated.html
 
@CarolineGlick: Hamas is offering all the hostages in exchange for a full ceasefire. In other words, if Israel agrees to lose the war, and accept Hamas’s survival, it will give us the hostages. If Israel takes this deal, we will be on the fast track to national destruction.
     Very glad to hear that @bezalelsm rejected this possibility and war cabinet opposes it.
 
@IsraelWarRoom: New details about the ceasefire violation by Hamas: The IDF estimates the explosive devices were activated remotely — meaning Hamas terrorists actively detonated them after recognizing IDF troops nearby (as opposed to IEDs triggered when stepped on/rolled over).
Two charges exploded one after the other, on a Merkava APC and a tank, as IDF troops boarded their vehicles near the Rantisi hospital. Terrorists also threw a bomb at IDF troops and opened fire; the IDF returned fire.
 
Today – The US Treasury dumped $148B of US debt into a soaring market on Monday and Tuesday.  This is the second time in the past few weeks that investors & traders poured into US debt ahead of massive auctions, or it’s the second time in the past few weeks that someone manipulated USZs higher to aid and abet the US Treasury.  How bonds trade today could be very telling.
 
Stocks have acted tired and trading has been sluggish the past two sessions.  However, barring news, the usual suspects will commence November performance gaming no later than the afternoon.
 
ESZs are +7.00; USZs are +13/32; and February Gold is +10.30 at 20:05 ET.  Traders are bullish on everything but the dollar!  Visions of Fed rate cuts are dancing in their heads!
 
Expected economic data: Q3 GDP 5.0%, Consumption 4.0%, GDP Price Index 3.5%, Core PCE Index 2.4%; Oct Advance Goods Trade -$86.5B; Oct Wholesale Inventories 0.2% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.6% m/m; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 13:45 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4349; 100-day MA: 4416; 150-day MA: 4361; 200-day MA: 4280
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,916; 100-day MA: 34,383; 150-day MA: 34,139; 200-day MA: 33,876
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 4229.80 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4467.07 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative– a close below 4541.36 triggers a sell signal
 
@ByronYork: The GOP race and the ‘donor class’
What is abundantly clear right now, in the 2024 GOP race, is that the donor class and the voters are not aligned. The short version is: The Republican donor class wants to get rid of former President Donald Trump, and the party’s voters want to elect him
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-gop-race-and-the-donor-class
 
Haley campaign hopes Koch backing, ‘grassroots army’ bests DeSantis Iowa push https://trib.al/ZBDYQVq
 
@townhallcom: Chuck Schumer: Republicans are “dangerously” trying to make Ukraine aid “conditional on passing hard-right border policy.” (So?) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1729607746029269195
 
A statue of Thomas Jefferson is removed from New York City Hall after 187 years
Last month, the city’s Public Design Commission voted 8-0 in favor of relocating the statue, due to Jefferson’s history as a slave owner…
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/24/us/thomas-jefferson-statue-removed/index.html
 
Court papers say ex-Virginia election official on trial ‘altered election results’ in 2020 election
Former Prince William County general registrar Michele White was indicted by a grand jury on two felony counts alleging corrupt conduct as an election official and making a false statement, and one misdemeanor charge of willful neglect of duty by an election officer last year. She has filed for a “Bill of Particulars” which requires prosecutors to provide more detail about her alleged wrongdoing…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ex-virginia-election-official-allegedly-altered-election-results-2020
 
@RaymondArroyo: I had resisted posting early reports of this story, because I thought they couldn’t possibly be true. We have reached a new level of Papal vindictiveness.  Pope punishes leading critic Cardinal Burke in second action against conservative American prelates.
 
George Soros and Pope Francis: An Unholy Alliance (Seemly accusations in this story)
The election of a liberal Jesuit to the papacy thrilled Democrats in the United States, whose unholy alliance with the Catholic left goes back many decades. Barack Obama, one of the pope’s most prominent supporters, has long been a beneficiary of that alliance. The faculty at Jesuit Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., ranked as one of the top donors to his campaign.
    In a grim irony, Obama, whose presidency substantially eroded religious freedom in America, rose to power not in spite of the Catholic Church but because of it. The archdiocese of Chicago helped bankroll his radicalism in the 1980s. As he recounts in his memoirs, he began his work as a community organizer in the rectory rooms of Holy Rosary parish on Chicago’s South Side. The Alinskyite organization for which he worked — the Developing Communities Project — received tens of thousands of dollars from the Catholic Campaign for Human Development…
    Cardinal Bernardin put pressure on his priests to work with Obama and even paid for Obama’s plane fare out to a 1980 training session in Los Angeles organized by Saul Alinsky’s Industrial Areas Foundation…
    According to the leaked documents, Soros’s Open Society Foundation sought to create a “critical mass” of American bishops and lay Catholics supportive of the pope’s priorities…
    Pope Francis has been influenced by The Pedagogy of the Oppressed, a book that sought to spread Marxism among the peasants of Latin America. The Alinskyite left in America regards that book as a classic… https://sovereignnations.com/2017/11/16/soros-pope-francis-unholy-alliance/
 
No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.” — Plato
 
Charlie Munger, Buffett’s sidekick at Berkshire Hathaway for almost 60 years, passed at age 99.

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER

Confetti Dollar End of Ponzi Scheme – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On November 28, 2023 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter says the recent underreported announcement by the UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti in Switzerland that his bank might need a “rescue” is yet another sign on the short road to the end of the global Ponzi scheme backed by the US dollar reserve currency.  Holter points out, “You’ve got a sick bank (Credit Suisse) that is being bailed out by another bank (UBS) that may turn out to be sick.  My question is who is going to bail out these central banks?  You have got the Fed with a $9 trillion balance sheet.  The last time, the Fed went from $900 billion to $9 trillion.  Can the Fed now go from $9 trillion to $90 trillion?  Who is going to bail out the Fed?  Who is going to bail out the US Treasury?  Who is going to bail out the Bank of England, the ECB or the Bank of Japan?  These central banks have completely blown up their balance sheet and have no ability to save anything.  My question is who is going to save them?”

Can’t they cut interest rates again like they did in 2009?  Holter says, “If they cut interest rates from here, you would see the dollar absolutely crash.  The only reason the dollar has not crashed is interest rates have basically gone from 0% to 5%.   They have done that in a year and a half which is the fastest increase in interest rates in all of history.”

So, rate cuts will devalue the dollar.  Can you pay trillions of dollars borrowed in Treasury Bond back in confetti dollars?  Holter says, “Yes, you absolutely can pay back your debt in confetti.  It’s been done many, many times before as currencies get lost.  The US Treasury can certainly pay back in dollars, confetti dollars that certainly will have no purchasing power.  What that does is it shuts the credit spigot off to the biggest debtor in the world.  The biggest debtor in the world is the US Treasury.  They owe more than any other entity anywhere. . . . I have long said this is going to be a credit event. . . . People are not going to buy Treasuries and be paid back in monkey money.  The world is going to shun dollars and shun US Treasuries. . . . In short, confetti dollars are going to shut the credit markets down. . . .  Then, it’s game over because everything runs on credit.  The financial markets run on credit, and the real economy runs on credit.  If there is no credit, nothing works.”

Holter is not surprised by the recent rise in gold.  He also says “watch silver, it is being suppressed because if silver rises uncontrollably, it will be like pulling the silver pin in the gold grenade.”

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 11.28.23.

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After the Interview:https://usawatchdog.com/confetti-dollar-end-of-ponzi-scheme-bill-holter/

SEE YOU THURSDAY

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