DEC 1/2023//LIKE CLOCKWORK GOLD GOES UP POST FIRST DAY NOTICE: GOLD RISES BY A HUGE $32.05 TO $2069.30 //SILVER ROSE BY $.15 TO $25.41/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $ 3.00 TO $X933.00 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $14.00 TO $1002.65//TODAY’S IMPORTANT PODCAST FROM ANDREW MAGUIRE AND IT IS A MUST SEE//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: HAMAS REFUSES TO GIVE THE NEXT LIST OF 10 ABDUCTEES AND THUS ISRAEL RE STARTED THE WAR//ISRAEL TAKES OUT TERROR CELL IN LEBANON//NO MORE AID WILL BE ALLOWED TO COME IN THROUGH EGYPT//CHINESE STOCKS TUMBLE AND THIS FORCES CHINESE AUTHORITIES TO BUY EFT’S TO STIMULATE THEIR ECONOMY//COVID//VACCINE INJURIES REPORT//BIG STORY PFIZER SUED BY TEXAS AS THE STORY IS NOW OUT AS TO THE HUGE DAMAGE THE VACCINE IS CAUSING//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA ECONOMIC DATA:MFG DATA RELEASED SUGGESTS STAGLATION//GOOD COMMENTARY FROM VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 45 159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 18 167 C MAREX 8 190 H BMO CAPITAL 104 357 C WEDBUSH 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 91 365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 13 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 256 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 133 661 C JP MORGAN 264 879 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 12 1 690 C ABN AMRO 2 700 C UBS 36 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 66 737 C ADVANTAGE 39 9 880 C CITIGROUP 764 905 C ADM 4 1 972 C IRONBEAM INC 1
TOTAL: 1,374 1,374 MONTH TO DATE: 11,220
JPMorgan stopped 879/1374 contracts.
FOR DEC.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2023. CONTRACT: 1374 NOTICES FOR 137,400 OZ or 4.2737 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,220 contracts for 1,122,000 oz (34.898 tonnes)
FOR DEC:
SILVER NOTICES 159 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 795,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1668 for 8,340,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $32.05//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
SOMEBODY RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR!
INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.51 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 15 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SHOCKER:A MASSIVE 1.923 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL DESPITE THE HUGE RUNNUP IN PRICES.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 434.128 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1485 CONTRACTS TO 142,849 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.20 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD A SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING BUT THE BULK OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER AND T.A.S.LIQUIDATION . TAS ISSUANCE WAS A MONSTROUS SIZED 1720 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 1720 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.20), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1035 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS IN OI DUE TO SPREADER FINALIZATION AND T.A.S LIQUIDATION
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD SIZED 450 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 18.755 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 250,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 19.110 MILLION OZ.
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 19.110 MILLION OZ
//HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1720 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 155 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 450 contracts: OR 2.250 MILLION OZ (450 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.250 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 2.25 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1485CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.20 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 450 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC. OF 18.755 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 250,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 19.110 MILLION OZ//
NEW STANDING 19.110 OZ /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1035OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1720CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED ALONG WITH SPREADERS DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (1720) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 159 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 795,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9600 CONTRACTS TO 499,616 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 931 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 9600 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $8.70 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LIGHT INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC.. AT 44.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 76500 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON/ // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR DEC SO FAR LOWERS TO 42.5972 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $8.70 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 5607OI CONTRACTS (17.44)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3993CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 499,616
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4676 CONTRACTS WITH 8669 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3993EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5607 CONTRACTS OR 17,446 TONNES. WE HAD 0 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 4188 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3993 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8669) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5607 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 44.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 76,500 OZ E.F.P TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 42.5972 TONNES / / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4676 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 3993 CONTRACTS OR 399,300 OZ OR 12.419 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3993 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 12.419 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 12.419/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 12.419 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1485CONTRACTS OI TO 142,847 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 450 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 450 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1487 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1035 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 5.175 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 212.56 PTS OR 1.25% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 55.36 PTS OR 0.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.17 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1430 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1549 /Oil DOWN TO 75.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.65/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9600 CONTRACTS TO 498,685 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS BUT MOST OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3993 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 3993 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3993CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5607 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3993LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9,600 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.70//THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE SIZED 4188 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//. THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI TONIGHT WAS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF SPREADER AND ALSO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION!
// WE HAVE A LIGHT AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (42.5972 TONNES ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $8.70) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF5607 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING ALONG WITH SPREADER LIQUIDATION. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 17,446 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (44.914 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 765 CONTRACT E.F.P TO LONDON FOR 76,500 OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FALLS TO 42.5972 TONNES../ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.70.
WE HAD REMOVED –931 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5607 CONTRACTS OR 560,700 OZ OR 17.446 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,220 notices 1,122,000 oz 34.898 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals 0 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 3849 contracts having LOST 10,611 contracts. .We had 9846
contracts served upon Thursday, so we lost 765 or an additional 76,500 oz (2.37 tonnes) as is there customer, they were
immediately E.F.P’d to London where they could take delivery on a T + 2 basis instead of waiting for metal over here.
JAN. lost 113 contracts FALLING TO 3366 contracts.
FEB GAINED 797 CONTRACTS RISING TO 411,440.
We had 1374 contracts filed for today representing 137,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 264 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1374 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 879 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,220 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (3849 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1374 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,369,500 OZ OR 42.5972 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC.contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,220) x 100 oz + (3849) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (1374) x 100 oz) which equals 1,369,500 oz standing OR 42.5972 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC: 42.5972 TONNES WHICH IS LIGHT FOR THE BIGGEST ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. THEY PROBABLY KNOW THAT NO REAL GOLD IS PRESENT AT THE COMEX.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,937,493.603 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,163,133.467 (316,11 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,834,360.136 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,603,784 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 267,61
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 1
//2023// THE DEC 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
795,303.130 oz
Brinks Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
603,134.04 oz ASAHI
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,081,409.300 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
159 CONTRACT(S) (795,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2154 contracts (10,770,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1668 Contracts (8,340,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
i)Into ASAHI 603,134.04 oz
total dealer deposit: 603,134.04 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT: 1,081,409.380 oz
total customer deposit 1,081,409.380 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/267,080 million or 50.33%
Comex withdrawals 1
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 791,298.400 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 4004.77
total withdrawals 795.308.13 oz
adjustments: 1
Delaware dealer to customer; 4963.280 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.888 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 267,080 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2023 OI: 2313 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1459 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 1509 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 50 CONTRACTS OR 250,000 OZ WERE
QUEUE JUMPED IN ORDER TO RECEIVE SILVER OVER HERE.
JAN GAINED 37 CONTRACTS UP TO 1854 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED ITS INITIAL 14 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 14
MARCH LOST 314 CONTRACTS TO 123,500 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 159 for 795,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 69,171,// poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 54,952 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1668 x 5,000 oz = 8,340,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (3849) and the number of notices served upon today 159 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 1668 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC. (3849) – number of notices served upon today (159 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month equates to 19.110 MILLION OZ
There are 42.290 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $32.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.51 TONNES
NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.53 TONNES
NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNE
NOV 27/WITH GOLD UP $9,85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $16.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.15 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 876.51 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.923 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.128 MILLION OZ
NOV 30/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.122 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 27/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,008,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 24/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.181 MILLION OZ
NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 437,104 MILLION OZ
NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 778,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.768 MILLION OZ
NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .733 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 434.128 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
end
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
very poor ruling.
(Courtesy Reuters/GATA)
LME vindicated for cancelling nickel trades; Comex must feel relief
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-11-30 12:47Section: Daily Dispatches
LME Triumphs in Lawsuit Over Cancelled Nickel Trades
By Sam Tobin and Pratima Desai Reuters Wednesday, November 29, 2023
LONDON — The London Metal Exchange won Wednesday a legal battle with U.S. financial firms that brought a case demanding $472 million in compensation after the exchange cancelled billions of dollars in nickel trades last year following a surge in prices.
Hedge fund Elliott Associates and market maker Jane Street Global Trading brought the case after the world’s largest metals marketplace cancelled $12 billion in trades when prices shot to records above $100,000 a metric ton in a few hours of chaotic trade in March 2022.
In its written ruling, London’s High Court said the LME could cancel trades in exceptional circumstances and was not obligated to consult market players prior to its decision.
“This judgment recognises the LME’s obligation to maintain orderly markets and its powers to intervene to this end, including by cancelling trades,” the LME said.
Other exchanges were closely watching the case because it could have wider ramifications on their ability to react to crisis situations. …
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire prepares us for 2024 with a new-look studio and shares some explosive predictions for next year and a recap of 2023’s stairsteps.
Looking back at the very first episode of LFTV, when Andrew first predicted a gold price reset, it is now time to reveal what the economic effects of this might be. The precious metals expert explains how the coming shock might even be weaponized.
END
Gold rises to its all time high at 2075.00 surpassing previous high of 2070.
h
Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 02:07 PM
Ahead of the looming Fed blackout period – which lasts until the Dec 13 FOMC meeting – Powell had once last chance to tame euphoric markets after the best November in the past 40 years… and he blew it. Instead of pushing forcefully against the meltup in risk assets after the biggest easing in financial conditions on record during November…
… the Fed chair appeared largely nonchallant, and in his fireside chat earlier today, what the market focused on was Powell’s comment that rates are “well into restrictive territory” which not only assured there would be no more rate hikes, but steamrolled Powell’s other, hawkish warning, that it is premature to speculate when the Fed might ease. The result was a collapse in yields, a surge in stocks, bitcoin spiking to new 2023 highs above $38,000, all driven by renewed bets that the Fed will cut rates as soon as March where the market now assigns odds of a rate cut as high as 80%, roughly double from yesterday.
And while it is unclear if it was Powell’s intention to give markets the green light to keep rallying into year-end, a problem has emerged, the same problem that emerges every time the market views the Fed as willing to sacrifice the dollar to prop up risk assets: gold.
After surging from a ytd low of $1820 in early October, to a high of $2,040 last week, largely thanks to a relentless gold buying spree out of China as we reported previously, gold has finally realized which way the wind is blowing and as shown below, it exploded higher amid a frenzy of institutional, ETF and retail buying (and perhaps continued Chinese buying), all of which managed to finally push the yellow metal to hit new all time highs of $2,075.41, the highest on record.
That’s just the start. As Bloomberg notes, gold calls were also in strong demand, both for futures and the biggest ETF tied to the metal, as bullion marched closer to a record high Friday. As shown in the chart below, the buildup of open interest between $2,000 and $2,500 has been relentless over the past week on growing optimism that rates are primed to decline:
That, alongside continued Chinese buying, and perhaps a reversal in ETF selling now that gold is clearly breaking out to new all time highs, means that the Fed has a new “old” problem on its hands: wholesale flight from fiat and into the safety of hard currencies, such as gold. No wonder “digital gold”, aka bitcoin, is also surging… although that one still has a ways to go to reach its previous all time high.
Then again, if the Fed is indeed set to cut rates as soon as March, and then proceed with more QE which will be inevitable to monetize the soaring US budget deficit and exploding interest payments, then we are set for new all time highs in everything – gold, bitcoin, stocks… oh and oil; because after the current bout of CTA selling is finally over, oil and commodities will be the next asset class to hit record highs at which point Powell’s mutation into Arthur Burns will be complete, confidence in the Fed will be crushed as the next – and far sharper inflation cycle kicks in – and the countdown to the end of the Dollar reserve currency system can finally begin.
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1430
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1549
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 212.56 PTS OR 1.25%
2. Nikkei closed UP 212.56 PTS OR 1.25%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.45 EURO FALLS TO 1.0883 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.705 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.30/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4430***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.1840** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.447…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.638
3j Gold at $2036.20 silver at: 25.12 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 75 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.20//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148,30// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.703% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8761 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9534 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.346 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.513 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.706 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.87…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 6 BASIS PTS AT 4.2405
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Drop In First Trading Day Of Last Month As Powell “Fireside Chat” Looms
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 08:20 AM
US futures reversed some of Thursday’s gains to start the final month of the year after a blowout performance in November, as European stocks gained, and Asia stuttered. US Treasuries and the dollar posted small moves before comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 11am ET that may offer clues on the path of interest rates. Oil rebounded after OPEC+ promised further output cuts but was hazy on details. Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended: Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Bitcoin soared to its highest price so far this year. Base metals are rallying after the strong China Caixin Mfg. PMI results (50.7 s. 49.6 survey vs. 49.5 prior). Today, we get the November ISM-Mfg. at 10am ET (exp. 47.9, last 46.7) and hear from Powell at a “fireside chat” at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday at 11am ET ahead of Fed’s blackout period. Focus for Powell events is whether he’ll back dovish comments earlier this week by Fed Governor Waller, which spurred a rally across front-end of the Treasuries curve.
In premarket trading, Pfizer dropped 3.5% after dropping development of its experimental weight-loss pill. Tesla slipped 2.1% as the electric-vehicle maker kicked off deliveries of its Cybertruck. RBC said the vehicle is priced at the higher end of expectations. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Marvell Technology slipped 5% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
PagerDuty rose 5% after the company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
Dell Technologies drops 5.4% after reporting revenue that declined more than expected, buffeted by continued sluggish corporate demand for personal computers.
Lemonade falls 3.2% after Oppenheimer downgraded the insurance company, noting the outlook for weather patterns to return to normal in 2024 after a relatively quiet 2023.
Samsara, a provider of GPS fleet tracking, gains 13% after boosting its profit and revenue guidance for the full year.
UiPath jumps 14% as analysts hike their targets after third-quarter results beat expectations at the robotic process automation software company.
Ulta Beauty gains 12% after the cosmetics retailer reported forecast-beating comparable sales growth in the third quarter.
After we predicted one month ago to brace for a face-ripping rally in November…
… that’s precisely what happened, as US stocks posted their best month in close to a year-and-a-half and had their second-best November since 1980s, defying the skeptical calls and fueling hopes that more gains are to come, while the MSCI All Country World Index saw its third-largest monthly gain in the past decade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped by the most in a year, while US Treasury yields tumbled about 60 basis points in the month. This was mostly down to plunging bond yields amid mounting signs that the Federal Reserve is managing to tame inflation without breaking the economy. Money-market fund assets surged to a fresh all-time high and Cathie Wood got in on the action too, with her ARKK Innovation ETF racking up a 31% gain for the month.
“Almost everyone was offsides coming into November,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Everyone except for our raders that is. “There’s still a big opportunity for traders to chase gains in December, too.”
This morning, investors were trying to assess if November’s scorching gains across asset classes can go further. Yesterday’s core PCE data showed that the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation eased in October, adding to the case for an end to the Fed’s tightening and bolstering the narrative that lifted markets globally last month. Some suggest optimistic market wagers on the timing of interest-rate cuts next year read too much into recent comments by Fed officials. Powell is set to speak at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday.
“The market is wondering whether it has gone ahead of itself in expecting US rate cuts next year,” said Sébastien Barbé, head of emerging-market research and strategy at Credit Agricole. “From Powell’s point of view, it may be tempting to warn the market against excess optimism about possible rate cuts in order to keep monetary conditions tight enough to make sure disinflation is sustainable.”
Meanwhile, oil prices steadied after the drop suffered yesterday following an OPEC+ meeting which sewed confusion among traders. The cartel promised further cuts to output but was hazy on the details, with the lack of a concluding press conference and final communiques leaving the market puzzled. Notably, the cuts agreed are voluntary, so whether the additional supply cuts that were announced will be delivered remains to be seen. Part of the rebound was driven by news Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended. Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Jets started striking Gaza soon after the deadline passed. Israel dropped leaflets telling people to leave some parts of southern Gaza. Qatar said truce negotiations continue
European stocks gain in early Friday trading, with the advance led by the Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index, as mining stocks outperform after broker upgrades, with the Automotive and Food, Beverage & Tobacco sectors the worst performing. Anglo American and Rio Tinto led gains in the Stoxx 600 Index after China’s manufacturing data beat estimates. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.7% with the FTSE 100 outperforming regional peers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
Mining shares outperform in Europe on Friday as Anglo American and Rio Tinto are upgraded to buy at UBS and Liberum, respectively, with Anglo American gaining as much as 7.6%, the most since September
Signify shares rise as much as 6.6% after the lighting maker announced a new divisional structure and said it will implement measures to reduce non-manufacturing costs by more than €200 million
Jenoptik rises as much as 5.8% after the optical systems technology firm upgraded its Ebitda margin target for 2025, citing better-than-expected organic development in its semiconductors and electronics businesses
Technogym gains as much as 11% after NIF Holding bought about 8.8 million ordinary shares of the fitness-equipment maker at €9.20 apiece in a reverse accelerated bookbuilding
Leonteq shares tumble as much as 18% to the lowest level since 2020 after the Swiss technology and service provider revised down its FY2023 forecast. ZKB flags that the dividend could be reduced
LVMH shares fall as much as 1.9% after the luxury goods maker is downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley given the likelihood of a further deterioration in demand for the industry in the fourth quarter
Viaplay shares plunge as much as 83%, the most on record, in early Friday trading. Analysts said shareholders can expect to see their holdings reduced to almost nothing under a new recapitalization plan
Ceres Power shares plunge as much as 27%, the most since 2012, after the UK-based energy generator and distributor said it hasn’t been able to conclude a new license partnership in this financial year
ITV shares fall as much as 2.9% after Deutsche Bank downgraded rating on the broadcaster to hold from buy, citing headwinds from a continued slump in advertising revenue
Swiss Re shares fall as much as 2% as investors focus on its new reserving allowance, which is expected to have a “negative impact” of approximately $500 million on profit after tax
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as concerns about China’s economy persisted, with sentiment cautious ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.4%, led by technology shares, as some Fed officials remained wary of interest rate cuts next year. Tech-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan also fell. Stocks in Japan gained as a stall in yen strength boosted exporters. Chinese shares declined, extending their recent underperformance versus global peers, with the CSI 300 Index set for its lowest close since 2019. Investors remained concerned about the weak economic recovery even as a private survey of China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded. The decline in home sales also accelerated in November despite more funding support for developers. Chinese’s losses were almost erased, however, after the China Securities Journal reported that the “National Team” was back as an unidentified Chinese state institution bought exchange-traded funds whose underlying assets are A-shares issued by central state-owned enterprises in the domestic stock market Friday.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were gradually pressured following the PBoC’s substantial net liquidity drain, whilst the latter eventually moved into the green amid reports China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, whilst the session also saw a surprise return to expansion territory for the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as encouraging data releases offset the headwinds from early currency strength.
Australia’s ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and consumer-related sectors amid higher yields.
In FX, US equity futures are steady, while the dollar was slightly down ahead of speeches by the Fed’s Powell and Goolsbee. US ISM manufacturing data is also due. DKK and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and SEK outperform.
In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve with losses led by long-end, moving inverted 2s10s spread back toward top of Thursday’s range. TSY yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s spread wider by 0.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.345% with bunds outperforming by 3.5bp in the sector, Italian 10-year by 5bp. Focus for Powell events is whether he’ll back dovish comments earlier this week by Fed Governor Waller, which spurred a rally across front-end of the Treasuries curve. Fed-dated OIS currently price in a 25bp rate cut in May and a total of 112bp cuts by the December FOMC meeting. US economic data includes November S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am New York time), October construction spending and November ISM manufacturing (10am). In Europe, Italian bonds outperform following surprise drop in Italy’s manufacturing PMI for November; bund 10-year yields are down some 2 bps, outperforming comparable USTs and gilts. US session includes manufacturing data and two scheduled appearances by Fed Chair Powell.
In commodities, oil pared some post-OPEC+ losses. WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.3% to trade near $76.20. Spot gold was on track for a third weekly gain, rising roughly $8 to trade near $2,045/oz as it inches toward its all-time high after Israel resumed its war against Hamas; it was then summarily smacked down by some central bank amid fears a new all time high will lead to a surge in gold to $2500 and higher and destabilize the fiat system. Most base metals trade in the green after China’s Caixin Mfg PMI unexpectedly entered expansion, rising to 50.7 from 49.5, and beating estimates of 49.8; LME tin rose 1.3%, outperforming peers.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee and Cook, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Elderson and De Cos. Data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs, along with the ISM manufacturing reading from the US.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,583.75
MXAP down 0.3% to 161.81
MXAPJ down 0.6% to 503.36
Nikkei down 0.2% to 33,431.51
Topix up 0.3% to 2,382.52
Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 16,830.30
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,031.64
Sensex up 0.7% to 67,464.96
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,073.18
Kospi down 1.2% to 2,505.01
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 464.87
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.42%
Euro little changed at $1.0898
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $80.51/bbl
Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,048.93
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 103.32
Top overnight news
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Nov came in ahead of plan at 50.7, up from 49.5 in Oct and above the Street’s 49.6 forecast (this follows the NBS PMIs Wed night falling short of expectations). RTRS
Europe’s final manufacturing PMI for Nov came in at 44.2, up from the flash reading of 43.8. BBG
Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed to “accelerate” the construction of military fortifications at key points along the frontline in the east of the country where Russian forces have stepped up attacks in recent weeks. FT
Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended. Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Jets started striking Gaza soon after the deadline passed. Israel dropped leaflets telling people to leave some parts of southern Gaza. Qatar said truce negotiations continue. BBG
Washington aims to slash Russia’s oil and gas revenue by 50% by the end of the decade to ensure Putin doesn’t have the funds to attack his neighbors. FT
Caracas has for over 200 years claimed rights over Essequibo, a vast swath of the territory of neighbouring Guyana. But only now has it opted to hold a referendum among Venezuelans on taking over the 160,000 sq km of land. FT
PFE announces a setback in its GLP1 anti-obesity ambitions. Its twice-daily danuglipron formulation will NOT advance into P3 studies. The drug achieved weight reductions of 8-13% over 32 weeks and 5-9.5% at 26 weeks, less than the 14-15% many thought would be needed to compete in the market. More significantly (and negatively), there were high rates of adverse side effects (up to 73% nausea; up to 47% vomiting; up to 25% diarrhea) and high discontinuation rates (greater than 50%). RTRS
Apple and Paramount Global have discussed bundling their streaming services at a discount, the latest attempt by rival entertainment giants to team up as they look to make their offerings more affordable and attractive. WSJ
BPCE is exploring options for its $1.2 trillion Natixis asset management business, including selling a majority stake, people familiar said. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the new month with price action rangebound as markets paused following the November rally amid another busy day of economic releases, while the conflict in Gaza also resumed. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and consumer-related sectors amid higher yields. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as encouraging data releases offset the headwinds from early currency strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were gradually pressured following the PBoC’s substantial net liquidity drain, whilst the latter eventually moved into the green amid reports China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, whilst the session also saw a surprise return to expansion territory for the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
Top Asian news
China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
US judge blocked the Montana state ban on Tiktok from taking effect, according to a court order.
US lawmakers seek a Biden administration investigation into Chinese drone maker Autel Robotics due to national security concerns.
Japan’s largest trade union RENGO said it formally agreed on a 2024 pay hike demand of 5% or more, according to Reuters.
European equities, Eurostoxx50, +0.5%, are extending gains; FTSE100, +0.8%, which has been lifted by mining-related stocks. European sectors are mostly in the green, with significant outperformance in Basic Resources, being propped up by mining stocks following broker upgrades at Anglo American, +6.4%, and Antofagasta, +4.7%; Optimised Personal Care & Grocery is marginally hampered by a Tesco, -1.3%, downgrade. US Futures are trading on the front foot, albeit to a lesser extent in comparison to their European counterparts ahead of ISM & Powell; RTY, +0.3%, slightly outperforms.
Top European news
ECB’s Nagel said recent inflation developments are encouraging but the ECB cannot be satisfied yet and inflation risks are still on the upside so a further rate hike cannot be ruled out. Nagel also stated that longer-term inflation expectations are still some way from 2% and that a leaner ECB balance sheet is desirable and the reduction can accelerate, while he added it is far too early to discuss rate cuts.
EU weighs concessions in the US steel feud amid concerns over a Trump return, according to Bloomberg sources.
German government spokesperson, re. budget talks, says they are aware of the urgency and there is a lot of momentum to solve this as soon as possible
FX
Dollar drifts after month-end revival awaiting US manufacturing ISM for interim impetus before guidance from Fed Chair Powell; DXY dithering within 103.45-26 range.
Kiwi back in sight of 0.6200 vs Greenback after hawkish RBNZ rhetoric from Hawkesby.
Aussie encouraged by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rebound to 50.0+ level as AUD/USD hold above 0.6600.
Loonie underpinned ahead of Canadian LFS with USD/CAD sub-1.3550.
Cable firm on 1.2600 handle after upward revision to final UK manufacturing PMI.
Euro tethered to 1.0900 vs Dollar amidst nearby option expiries and post-mostly better than flash or forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1104 vs exp. 7.1458 (prev. 7.1018).
Fixed Income
Debt futures back on a firmer footing, on balance, after steep month end retracement.
Bunds bounce further from sub-132.00 towards 133.00 again.
Gilts towards top of 96.80-25 range, but still lagging in run up to Fitch UK rating review.
T-note hovering around 110-00 within 110-04/109-27+ confines awaiting US manufacturing ISM and Fed speakers headlined by Chair Powell twice.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are modestly firmer intraday in the aftermath of the OPEC+ confab on Thursday which ultimately underwhelmed the market given that output cuts are voluntary; as it stands, benchmarks are holding incrementally above the unchanged mark in narrow ranges around the prior session’s trough.
Spot gold holds an upward bias as the Dollar remains subdued; Base metals are firmer across the board amid upbeat Chinese data overnight, and upward bias in risk sentiment in Europe.
OPEC Secretariat announced several OPEC+ countries will conduct additional voluntary cuts to the total of 2.2mln BPD (exp. 2.0mln). It was confirmed that Brazil will join OPEC+ from January 2024.
Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD to the end of Q1 2024 with its production to be approx. 9mln BPD and Russia is also to extend its voluntary cut in oil supplies until the end of Q1 2024 with its voluntary supply cut to reach 500k BPD. Kuwait is to make a further 135k BPD OPEC+ oil output cut, while the UAE is to make an additional 160k BPD OPEC+ output cut and Iraq is said to cut its production by 220k BPD in Q1. Conversely, Angola rejected its OPEC quota for 1.11mln BPD and said it will produce 1.18mln BPD, according to Bloomberg. Click here for the detailed headline.
US is purchasing 2.73mln bbls of oil for the strategic reserve, according to a document cited by Reuters.
US aims to halve Russia’s energy revenue by 2030, while Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Pyatt said Western sanctions will continue for years to come to curb Moscow’s war machine, according to FT.
US President Biden and Angola’s President welcomed the launch of a US-Angola energy security dialogue in 2024 during a meeting on Thursday, according to the White House
US State Department said the US reiterated its pledge to ‘reconsider’ the steps it took to ease sanctions on Venezuela if the latter fails to comply with certain commitments by the end-November deadline, while it added that Venezuela must define steps for lifting bans on opposition candidates and begin the release of Venezuelan political prisoners and wrongfully detained Americans. It was later reported that banned Venezuelan candidates would be allowed to take their cases to a tribunal.
Morgan Stanley says commitment to new OPEC+ cuts appears to be uncertain, expect compliance to only be partial, Foresees Saudi Arabia ultimately extending the cuts to Q2-2024. Maintain Brent forecast at USD 85/bb and flat throughout 2024. Lowered OPEC+ production forecast for Q1-2024 by 0.6mln BPD, still see the oil market turning into a small surplus again in Q2 & Q3.
Russia’s Kremlin says OPEC+ contributes to stabilisation of energy markets and creation of conditions for supporting energy prices at a balanced level; Russia is interested in continuing working with OPEC+.
First Quantum is suspending production guidance for Cobre Panama for the current year
Geopolitics
Israel’s military said that Hamas violated the truce and fired towards Israeli territory, while it has resumed combat against Hamas in Gaza
Initial reports suggested Israel and Hamas agreed to extend the truce for an eighth day, according to Egyptian officials cited by WSJ. However, there was no official statement made by Israel, Hamas or mediator Qatar.
Rocket sirens sounded in Israeli areas near the Gaza border and the Israeli military said one launch was detected from Gaza which was intercepted, while Hamas-affiliated media reported that explosions and gunfire were heard in the northern Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israeli planes were reportedly flying over Gaza and Israeli army vehicles are firing in the northwest of the Gaza Strip, according to a correspondent cited by Al Jazeera.
The Israeli army raises the alert on the border with Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya
Qatari and Egyptian mediators have been in contact with Hamas and Israel since fighting resumed in Gaza on Friday, according to Reuters citing sources; negotiations between both sides is continuing
Senior Hezbollah member says Lebanon remain ready to confront any danger from Israel, adds Gaza developments can still affect the Lebanon situation
US Treasury Department issued new North Korean sanctions targeting 8 individuals and the hacking group Kimsuky, while South Korea imposed sanctions on 11 North Korean individuals, according to the Foreign Ministry.
US Event Calendar
09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.5, prior 49.4
10:00: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
10:00: Nov. ISM Employment, est. 47.2, prior 46.8
10:00: Nov. ISM New Orders, est. 46.7, prior 45.5
10:00: Nov. ISM Prices Paid, est. 45.9, prior 45.1
10:00: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.8, prior 46.7
Central Banks
03:00: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
10:00: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Discussion
11:00: Fed’s Powell Speaks in Fireside Chat
14:00: Fed’s Powell, Cook Participate in Roundtable Discussion
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Happy December. My wife is organizing Santa’s Grotto at the kids’ school tomorrow and until yesterday was missing one key thing. A Santa! A call over the last few weeks for a volunteer amongst all parents and grandparents had fallen upon deaf ears so my wife rung a couple of agencies and found the cheapest Santa was £600 for 90mins work. So that’s a great business to get into, although I accept the work might have a seasonal bias!
Since it’s the start of December this morning, we’ll shortly be releasing our monthly performance review for November. Overall, it was a great month for markets after a run of three fairly weak ones, which has led to a big turnaround in some of the YTD numbers for 2023. In fact, it was the best month for global bonds since December 2008, the best month for US bonds since May 1985, as well as the strongest month for the S&P 500 this year. The full report will be in your inboxes shortly.
Whether the trends of November continue into Xmas might in part depend on Powell’s speech later today (4pm GMT), just before the FOMC blackout. Market moves have been so great since he suggested that tight financial conditions were doing some of the Fed’s job for them (November 1st) that you have to think he will address the subsequent moves and either push back or endorse. On balance I think he may take a similar tone to Williams yesterday and push back a little while acknowledging the progress that has seemingly been made .
On that theme, NY Fed President Williams’ remarks yesterday helped the month end on a soggier tone, especially for bonds. He said he expects “it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis .” Separately, San Francisco President Daly said that “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now”.
Those developments had a notable impact on sovereign bonds, which pared back some of their recent gains on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield bounced back +7.1bps to 4.33%. Over in Europe there were slightly smaller moves for 10yr bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+2.3bps) and BTPs (+5.5bps), while Gilts underperformed (+8.0bps) .
This came even as the data generally pointed in a dovish direction. In particular, we had the latest PCE inflation data for October yesterday, which is the measure the Fed officially targets. That showed headline PCE at a monthly 0.0% (vs. +0.1% expected), which brought the year-on-year number down to +3.0%, and the lowest since March 2021. It also brings us closer to the sort of numbers where the Fed has historically pivoted towards rate cuts in the past. Core PCE was still a bit higher at +3.5%, but to be fair, the more recent figures have been better, and if you just look at the last 6 months alone, core PCE is now down to an annualised +2.5% .
Over in the Euro Area, there was similarly good news from the flash CPI reading for November. It showed headline annual inflation was down to +2.4% (vs +2.7% expected) , the lowest since July 2021, and almost back at the ECB’s 2% target. This was partly down to a big negative impetus from energy prices, which are currently down -11.5% year-on-year. Core inflation remained more elevated at +3.6% but this also surprised clearly on the downside (+3.9% exp) with a marked slowdown in the past three months, down from +5.3% as recently as August.
Amidst the better news on inflation, the bigger concern came from the labour market, where the latest data showed things were continuing to soften. For example, US continuing jobless claims were up to their highest level in almost two years, at 1.927m (vs. 1.865m expected). Seasonals seem to be a little all over the place this year so some caution is required. Meanwhile in Germany, the r egistered unemployment rate climbed to a two-and-a-half year high of 5.9%, so this wasn’t just a US theme. As it happens, we’re now just a week away from the final US jobs report of the year, and it was last month that the unemployment rate hit its highest since January 2022. So if it does show any further softening, that’ll only ramp up the H1 2024 rate cut speculation as we get closer to the Fed’s December meeting just a few days later .
With the data softening, US equities continued their pretty flat performance this week. But a sizeable rally in the final 30 minutes of US trading, probably reflecting month-end flows, left the S&P 500 posting a decent rise (+0.38%). Bank stocks outperformed for the second day in a row (+1.03%), while a strong day for industrials led the Dow Jones index to a +1.47% gain. Tech stocks underperformed, with the NASDAQ (-0.23%) and the FANG+ index (-0.27%) dipping. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) continued its recent outperformance, closing at a two-month high .
This morning Asian equity markets are drifting lower at the start of the last month of the year despite the late-day rebound on Wall Street overnight. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-1.03%) is the biggest underperformer across the region with the CSI (-0.91%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) also trading in the red amid mixed economic signals from China (more on this below). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.03%) is flickering between gains and losses this morning. In overnight trading, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with those on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) just below flat while those on the NASDAQ 100 (-0.19%) inching lower.
Coming back to China, the Caixin PMI measure of the manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in November, hitting 50.7 (v/s 49.6 expected). That was the fastest expansion in three months and up from 49.5 in October. Of course, the Caixin PMI stands in contrast to the latest official PMI which dropped to 49.4, highlighting that mores stimulus will likely be required to reinvigorate growth in the world’s second biggest economy.
Elsewhere, Japan’s unemployment rate edged down to 2.5% in October (v/s 2.6% expected) while the job-to-application ratio slightly went up to 1.30 after having stayed at 1.29 in the preceding three months. In a separate report, capital spending in 3Q23 advanced +3.4% y/y as expected after a +4.5% gain in the previous quarter.
Elsewhere yesterday, oil prices gave up their earlier gains following the conclusion of the OPEC+ meeting. T he group agreed additional supply cuts totalling about 900kb/d on top of an existing reduction of 1,300kb/d by Saudi Arabia and Russia . However, the move was in the form of “voluntary cuts” by several OPEC+ countries rather than a more typical agreement on reduced production quotas, leaving questions over how disciplined the implementation of the supply curbs will be. WTI crude had been trading c. 2% higher on the day prior to the news but fell by more than 5% intra-day and was down -2.44% by the close at $75.96/bbl. Brent crude saw more modest swings, and was down -0.32% to $82.83/bbl yesterday. Overnight, Brent crude prices are under pressure, trading -2.61% lower to trade at $80.67/bbl on softer output cuts .
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee and Cook, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Elderson and De Cos. Data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs, along with the ISM manufacturing reading from the US.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
European bourses bid whilst US Futures contained ahead of Fed’s Powell & US ISM – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 06:22 AM
European equities extend gains; FTSE100 propped up by mining names; US futures contained pre-Powell
DXY is marginally weaker, with mild outperformance in the Kiwi post-hawkish commentary from Hawkesby
Bonds bounce and back on a firmer footing, after steep month-end retracement
Crude contained post-OPEC; base metals boosted by the softer Dollar & firmer Chinese data
Israel’s military said that Hamas violated the truce and fired towards Israeli territory, while it has resumed combat against Hamas in Gaza
Looking ahead, US and Canadian Manufacturing PMI (Final), Canadian Unemployment Rate, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & Cook, ECB’s Lagarde
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European equities, Eurostoxx50, +0.5%, are extending gains; FTSE100, +0.8%, which has been lifted by mining-related stocks.
European sectors are mostly in the green, with significant outperformance in Basic Resources, being propped up by mining stocks following broker upgrades at Anglo American, +6.4%, and Antofagasta, +4.7%; Optimised Personal Care & Grocery is marginally hampered by a Tesco, -1.3%, downgrade.
US Futures are trading on the front foot, albeit to a lesser extent in comparison to their European counterparts ahead of ISM & Powell; RTY, +0.3%, slightly outperforms.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Dollar drifts after month-end revival awaiting US manufacturing ISM for interim impetus before guidance from Fed Chair Powell; DXY dithering within 103.45-26 range.
Kiwi back in sight of 0.6200 vs Greenback after hawkish RBNZ rhetoric from Hawkesby.
Aussie encouraged by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rebound to 50.0+ level as AUD/USD hold above 0.6600.
Loonie underpinned ahead of Canadian LFS with USD/CAD sub-1.3550.
Cable firm on 1.2600 handle after upward revision to final UK manufacturing PMI.
Euro tethered to 1.0900 vs Dollar amidst nearby option expiries and post-mostly better than flash or forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1104 vs exp. 7.1458 (prev. 7.1018).
WTI and Brent are modestly firmer intraday in the aftermath of the OPEC+ confab on Thursday which ultimately underwhelmed the market given that output cuts are voluntary; as it stands, benchmarks are holding incrementally above the unchanged mark in narrow ranges around the prior session’s trough.
Spot gold holds an upward bias as the Dollar remains subdued; Base metals are firmer across the board amid upbeat Chinese data overnight, and upward bias in risk sentiment in Europe.
OPEC Secretariat announced several OPEC+ countries will conduct additional voluntary cuts to the total of 2.2mln BPD (exp. 2.0mln). It was confirmed that Brazil will join OPEC+ from January 2024.
Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD to the end of Q1 2024 with its production to be approx. 9mln BPD and Russia is also to extend its voluntary cut in oil supplies until the end of Q1 2024 with its voluntary supply cut to reach 500k BPD. Kuwait is to make a further 135k BPD OPEC+ oil output cut, while the UAE is to make an additional 160k BPD OPEC+ output cut and Iraq is said to cut its production by 220k BPD in Q1. Conversely, Angola rejected its OPEC quota for 1.11mln BPD and said it will produce 1.18mln BPD, according to Bloomberg. Click here for the detailed headline.
US is purchasing 2.73mln bbls of oil for the strategic reserve, according to a document cited by Reuters.
US aims to halve Russia’s energy revenue by 2030, while Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Pyatt said Western sanctions will continue for years to come to curb Moscow’s war machine, according to FT.
US President Biden and Angola’s President welcomed the launch of a US-Angola energy security dialogue in 2024 during a meeting on Thursday, according to the White House
US State Department said the US reiterated its pledge to ‘reconsider’ the steps it took to ease sanctions on Venezuela if the latter fails to comply with certain commitments by the end-November deadline, while it added that Venezuela must define steps for lifting bans on opposition candidates and begin the release of Venezuelan political prisoners and wrongfully detained Americans. It was later reported that banned Venezuelan candidates would be allowed to take their cases to a tribunal.
Morgan Stanley says commitment to new OPEC+ cuts appears to be uncertain, expect compliance to only be partial, Foresees Saudi Arabia ultimately extending the cuts to Q2-2024. Maintain Brent forecast at USD 85/bb and flat throughout 2024. Lowered OPEC+ production forecast for Q1-2024 by 0.6mln BPD, still see the oil market turning into a small surplus again in Q2 & Q3.
Russia’s Kremlin says OPEC+ contributes to stabilisation of energy markets and creation of conditions for supporting energy prices at a balanced level; Russia is interested in continuing working with OPEC+.
First Quantum is suspending production guidance for Cobre Panama for the current year
ECB’s Nagel said recent inflation developments are encouraging but the ECB cannot be satisfied yet and inflation risks are still on the upside so a further rate hike cannot be ruled out. Nagel also stated that longer-term inflation expectations are still some way from 2% and that a leaner ECB balance sheet is desirable and the reduction can accelerate, while he added it is far too early to discuss rate cuts.
EU weighs concessions in the US steel feud amid concerns over a Trump return, according to Bloomberg sources.
German government spokesperson, re. budget talks, says they are aware of the urgency and there is a lot of momentum to solve this as soon as possible
DATA RECAP
EZ Manufacturing PMIs generally saw revisions higher from the preliminary results.
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Nov) 44.2 vs. Exp. 43.8 (Prev. 43.8)
Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 44.4 vs. Exp. 45.3 (Prev. 44.9)
French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 42.9 vs. Exp. 42.6 (Prev. 42.6)
German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 42.6 vs. Exp. 42.3 (Prev. 42.3)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 47.2 vs. Exp. 46.7 (Prev. 46.7)
Swiss GDP QQ (Q3) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Rev. -0.1%); YY 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Barr (Voter, Neutral): Fed discount window borrowing should not have stigma, wants banks to se the discount window for their funding needs.
Fed rate hikes are probably over, but officials are reluctant to say so, via WSJ’s Timiraos; on track to hold rates steady at the December gathering while maintaining public guidance that the next move is more likely to be a hike rather than a cut.
Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.88 (exp. 1.47), Revenue 22.25bln (exp. 23.bln); revenue miss due to a slower-than-expected recovery in the hardware and software market. Shares seen -5.5% in pre-market trade
Disney (DIS) reinstates quarterly dividend of USD 0.30/shr. Shares seen +0.7% in pre-market trade
Israel’s military said that Hamas violated the truce and fired towards Israeli territory, while it has resumed combat against Hamas in Gaza
Initial reports suggested Israel and Hamas agreed to extend the truce for an eighth day, according to Egyptian officials cited by WSJ. However, there was no official statement made by Israel, Hamas or mediator Qatar.
Rocket sirens sounded in Israeli areas near the Gaza border and the Israeli military said one launch was detected from Gaza which was intercepted, while Hamas-affiliated media reported that explosions and gunfire were heard in the northern Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israeli planes were reportedly flying over Gaza and Israeli army vehicles are firing in the northwest of the Gaza Strip, according to a correspondent cited by Al Jazeera.
The Israeli army raises the alert on the border with Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya
Qatari and Egyptian mediators have been in contact with Hamas and Israel since fighting resumed in Gaza on Friday, according to Reuters citing sources; negotiations between both sides is continuing
Senior Hezbollah member says Lebanon remain ready to confront any danger from Israel, adds Gaza developments can still affect the Lebanon situation
North-Korea
US Treasury Department issued new North Korean sanctions targeting 8 individuals and the hacking group Kimsuky, while South Korea imposed sanctions on 11 North Korean individuals, according to the Foreign Ministry.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin, USD 38.6k, extends gains and pushes above a triple top to an 18-month peak, with Ethereum also firmly in the green.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks began the new month with price action rangebound as markets paused following the November rally amid another busy day of economic releases, while the conflict in Gaza also resumed.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and consumer-related sectors amid higher yields.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as encouraging data releases offset the headwinds from early currency strength.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were gradually pressured following the PBoC’s substantial net liquidity drain, whilst the latter eventually moved into the green amid reports China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, whilst the session also saw a surprise return to expansion territory for the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
US judge blocked the Montana state ban on Tiktok from taking effect, according to a court order.
US lawmakers seek a Biden administration investigation into Chinese drone maker Autel Robotics due to national security concerns.
Japan’s largest trade union RENGO said it formally agreed on a 2024 pay hike demand of 5% or more, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 50.7 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.5)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Oct) 1.30 vs. Exp. 1.29 (Prev. 1.29)
Japanese Company Profits Y/Y (Q3) 20.1% vs Exp. 13.8% (Prev. 11.6%)
Japanese Company Sales Y/Y (Q3) 5.0% vs Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 5.8%)
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 212.56 PTS OR 1.25% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 55.36 PTS OR 0.17% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.17 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1430 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1549 /Oil DOWN TO 75.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.65/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
China’s Battered Banks Are Poised For More Pain
THURSDAY, NOV 30, 2023 – 05:40 PM
By John Cheng, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
China’s battered banking stocks will likely decline further as they are summoned by local authorities to support the country’s struggling property developers, analysts say.
Latest policy moves to boost lending to developers — including via the use of unsecured loans — have only strengthened the conviction that lenders’ shares may weaken further. Even record-low valuations have not been enough to lure investors, with the CSI 300 Banks Index slumping to a one-year low amid worries over shrinking margins.
“Unfortunately, we think banks may have to do more national service this time to stabilize the growth expectations,” said Xiadong Bao, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris. “We think those headwinds may persist given the challenging macro condition and weak consumer sentiment. It is difficult to have a positive view before the credit cycle comes back.”
China’s banks face a conundrum of balancing support for the property sector and the economy with the need to manage their already depressed earnings. The sector’s net interest margins slumped to a record low of 1.73% as of September, below the 1.8% threshold seen as necessary to maintain reasonable profitability.
In a readout last week, China’s parliament asked lenders to step up funding for developers to reduce the risk of additional defaults and ensure completion of housing projects, adding that the financial sector’s profits have room to fall as a share of the economy. Lenders are also being directed to refinance loans to local governments at lower rates.
Still, banks could circumvent guidance to provide unsecured loans to developers “due to credit risk concerns,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Katherine Lei wrote in a note.
While banks may stay selective on new property loans, “headwinds from rising system leverage, prolonged property stress, and a shifting policy environment are weighing on banks’ growth and profitability,” Fitch Ratings Inc. analysts including Lan Wang wrote in a note, adding that the impact on larger state banks will be more modest.
END
As Chinese Stocks Tumble To 4 Year Low, Beijing Steps In, Buys ETFs
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 10:20 AM
While US stocks are trading just shy of 2023 highs and less than 5% from all time highs thanks to the second best November performance since 1980, China is having big problems with, well, everything… but certainly its stock market.
Overnight, Chinese shares slumped again, extending their recent underperformance versus global peers, when the CSI 300 Index was set for its lowest close since 2019 amid growing fears the relentless housing crisis will steamroll the economy, as a decline in home sales accelerated in November despite more funding support for developers.
Chinese losses were almost erased, however, and stocks rebounded in the afternoon after the China Securities Journal reported that the “National Team” was back in play, as an unidentified Chinese state institution bought exchange-traded funds whose underlying assets are A-shares issued by central state-owned enterprises in the domestic stock market Friday.
The news outlet didn’t name the institution. But after the markets closed, China Reform Holdings said in a statement that one of its units bought an unspecified amount of an ETF tracking the Guoxin Central-SOEs Technology Lead Index. According to Bloomberg, turnover for the China Southern CSI Guoxin Central-SOEs Technology Lead ETF also surged to around 10 times the daily average over the past three months on Friday, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
As a result of Beijing’s latest direct effort to prop up markets, the CSI 300 Index closed down only 0.4% after earlier falling more than 1% while the Shanghai Composite index ended in the green, bouncing back from a 0.6% slide that pushed it near the key 3,000-level that has in the past triggered intervention moves.
Stocks slumped earlier after data showed the decline in China’s home sales accelerated in November, while the latest Caixin PMI, which showed an unexpected pickup in a private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity, proved insufficient to ease fears about the economy’s recovery (and made more government stimulus unlikely).
The reported buying of ETFs “would be a policy-driven move to prop up markets as investors stand on the sidelines and are hesitant to build positions toward the end of the year,” said Shen Meng, a director with Beijing-based Chanson & Co. Lifting the market in this manner “is unlikely to bring any long-term boost apart from this knee-jerk reaction,” he said correctly. Trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed for a sustained uplift in risk assets, something Beijing refuses to do due to China’s record 300%+ debt/GDP.
Instead, authorities have taken piecemeal steps to lift confidence and put a floor under sinking markets, including purchases of ETFs and bank stocks by the sovereign wealth fund. However, rebounds have rarely lasted more than a day, speaking to profound pessimism among foreign investors in particular.
The afternoon report also drove other ETFs higher. China AMC CSI Central Enterprises Structure Adjustment ETF closed 0.5% higher, while China Universal CSI Guoxin Central-SOEs Shareholder Return ETF rose 0.8%. Bosera CSI Central-SOEs’ Innovation Driven ETF added 0.6%.
In Hong Kong, key gauges continued to slide. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slumped more than 2%. The CSI 300 benchmark slid 2.1% in November, the worst performance among the world’s major equity benchmarks and missing out on a broad rally in global markets. Foreign investors sold nearly 5 billion yuan ($700 million) on a net basis Friday, following four straight months of outflows.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
HUNGARY/UKRAINE
Hungary correctly rejects the entry of Ukraine as being completely premature
(zerohedge)
Hungary Rejects “Completely Premature” Proposal To Admit Ukraine Into EU
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The government of Viktor Orban in Hungary has blasted a proposal to admit Ukraine into the European Union as “completely premature”. Orban’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, on Thursday told a news conference in Budapest that it is too early to so much as begin formal talks on the matter, according to the AP.
“We are dealing with a completely premature proposal,” Gulyas emphasized, explaining that Hungary “cannot contribute to a common decision” on inviting Ukraine to join the bloc.Via Reuters
Despite Ukraine long ranking as among the most corrupt countries in the world, and as and among the top in Europe, the EU’s executive arm this month urged the opening of membership talks, so long as Kiev can show progress on fronts like rampant corruption, lobbying practices, and freedom of minority language issues.
Interestingly, PM Orban is even standing firm against approving an additional $54 billion in further long-term aid to Ukraine currently being proposed to be added to the EU’s budget. He’s of late grown more vocal in his vowing to block all European aid until Ukraine enacts significant changes.
Hungary has been especially concerned over oppression of ethnic Hungarians inside Ukraine – though the question of allowance of the Russian language has also remained dominant as the war presses on.
In late September, Orban gave a speech declaring Hungary will no longer support Ukraine in any way unless certain significant policies are changed both in Kiev and in the European Union.
He stressed in those prior words given before parliament that “Hungary is doing everything for peace” but that “unfortunately the Russian-Ukrainian war continues, tens of thousands of people are victims.” Thus, he continued, “Diplomats must take control back from the hands of the soldiers, otherwise it will be in vain for women to wait for their sons and fathers and husbands to come home.”
He has throughout the conflict stood against policies which escalate against Moscow, and has constantly warned against stumbling into a WW3 scenario involving direct NATO-Russia clash. He told Tucker Carlson in a recent interview that “the Third World War сould be knocking on our door so we have to be very careful.” This continues years of Budapest having been a consistent thorn in the side of the EU.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/ THURSDAY EVENING
8 hostages released Thursday evening including two Bedouin siblings
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel-Hamas deal: These are the 8 hostages released on Thursday
Two Bedouin siblings were released from Hamas captivity on Thursday.
These are the 8 Israeli hostages released on Thursday(photo credit: The Jerusalem Post)
Israel has confirmed the identities of the eight hostages who were released on Thursday evening, after 54 days of being held captive by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.Belal and AIsha Zaidna
Belal Zaidna (credit: Hostage and Missing Families Forum)
AIsha Zaidna (credit: Hostage and Missing Families Forum)
Belal and AIsha Zaidna are two of four members of the Zaidna family, including father Yosef Hamis and their sibling Hamza, who went missing on October 7 when Hamas terrorists invaded Kibbutz Holit. They were working in the kibbutz’s cow shed at the time. Despite government involvement Hamis and Hamza’s whereabouts remain unknown, and they have not been officially classified as Hamas captives.Shani Goren, 29
Shani Goren released from Hamas captivity November 30, 2023 (credit: BRINGTHEMHOMENOW)
Shani Goren, 29, was taken hostage from her home in Nir Oz by Hamas terrorists on October 7. She was a counselor for many years in the kibbutz’s youth organization. One of the children she worked with in that role was Eitan Yahalomi, a 12-year old boy who was also kidnapped on Oct. 7 and was released earlier this week. According to Shani’s sister, Shira, Shani was with Eitan in captivity, and watched over him, sharing her food with him and looking after his wellbeing.
Amit Soussana, 40
Amit Soussana released from Hamas captivity November 30, 2023 (credit: BRINGTHEMHOMENOW)
Amit Soussana, 40, was kidnapped by Hamas terrorists after they invaded her home in Kfar Azza, one of the hardest hit areas on October 7.
Amit is the youngest of three sisters, an attorney at one of Israel’s most prominent Intellectual Property firms. A native of Sderot, she moved to Kfar Azza a year ago.
Mia Schem, 21
Mia Schem, 21, was at the Nova festival with her friend on October 7 when Hamas terrorists invaded Israel from Gaza and massacred hundreds of people at the festival, and kidnapping others including Mia.
In the days following the massacre, Hamas released a video of Schem showing she had been treated for an injured arm, and of her telling viewers she was safe and asking them to help bring her home as soon as possible. A tattoo artist in Modiin, Schem had made a tattoo of an Israeli flag surrounded by hearts just a week before the massacre, due to her love for her country, according to the owner of the shop where she works.
Sapir Cohen, 29
Sapir Cohen, 29, was kidnapped along with her boyfriend, Sasha Trufanov, from his family’s home in Kibbutz Nir Oz. His mother, Yelena, and grandmother, Irena Tati, were also taken captive. His father was killed. Yelena and Irena, who hold Russian citizenship, were released by Hamas earlier this week after a request by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sasha remains in captivity.
Ilana Gritzewsky, 30
Ilana Gritzewsky, 30, was abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz along with her partner, Matan Zanguaker. A dual Mexican national who made aliyah 14 years ago after attending high school in Israel through the Naale program, Gritzewsky had told friends and family she felt she had “made it” as an Israeli by living in Nir Oz and dating an Israeli.
In a post to the social network X after Gritzewsky’s release, Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena thanked the Qatari government for its “invaluable mediation,” and said Mexico was still working to liberate the other Mexican hostage, Orion Hernandez.
Nili Margalit, 41Nili Margalit, 41, is a pediatric nurse who was kidnapped from her home in Kibbutz Nir Oz. It took several weeks for authorities to confirm that Margalit had been kidnapped, as her home had been completely burnt to the ground. After former hostage Yocheved Lifshitz’s release, the elderly woman said that Margalit had been with her in captivity, and had tended to the other hostages’ injuries, caring for others “as she always did.”
END
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING 12 MIDNIGHT/7 A.M. ISRAELI TIME
Attempts to extend the ceasefire and secure the release of additional hostages appeared to have failed overnight.
By TZVI JOFFREDECEMBER 1, 2023 07:18Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2023 07:41
IDF’s Nahal Brigade in Gaza.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came to an end on Friday morning as Hamas renewed rocket fire toward southern Israel and fighting erupted in the Gaza Strip. The IDF launched airstrikes against Hamas targets in the Strip as well after the ceasefire ended.
Over an hour before the ceasefire was set to end, a rocket was fired from Gaza toward southern Israel, with a second round of rocket fire reported a few minutes before the end of the ceasefire.
The Eshkol Regional Council in southern Israel advised residents to stay near shelters on Friday morning due to concerns of further rocket fire.
After the ceasefire ended, intense clashes were reported in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City in northern Gaza, with Palestinian media reporting Israeli airstrikes throughout Gaza as well. The clashes expanded to additional areas, with firefights reported near the Netzarim Junction in central Gaza.
Mediators had been working to extend the ceasefire for an additional day overnight by reaching an agreement on a further release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but those efforts appeared to have failed.
Shortly after the ceasefire ended, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit stated on Friday morning that “Hamas violated the agreement and additionally fired toward Israeli territory. The IDF has renewed combat with the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.”
Smoke rises in the northern Gaza Strip following an Israeli airstrike, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from southern Israel, November 8, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)
Home Front Command reinstates restrictions in southern and northern Israel
The Home Front Command tightened restrictions for communities near the the Gaza border and the Lebanese and Syrian borders on Friday morning shortly before the ceasefire appeared to end.
In communities near the Gaza border, gatherings in open areas were restricted to 10 people in open areas and up to 50 people indoors. Businesses will only be allowed to operate in they have a shelter and no schools will operate.
In the western Lachish region, some of the towns in the southern Golan Heights, all of the towns in the northern Golan Heights, and towns and cities along the confrontation line on the northern border, gatherings in open areas were restricted to up to 30 people outdoors and up to 300 people indoors. Businesses will only be allowed to operate in they have a shelter and only schools with easily accessible shelters will be allowed operate.
In many cities in central and southern Israel, only schools which have an easily accessible shelter will be allowed to operate.
The Holon municipality in central Israel announced on Friday morning that schools would not operate on Friday due to the end of the ceasefire.
END
Zero hedge reports on the resumption of the war. Still we have 137 hostages of which 126 are Israelis. Twenty are women and 2 children The IDF is looking into the story that Bibas mother and her two children were killed
(zerohedge)
Truce Collapses, Missiles Fly Over Gaza, With 137 Israelis Still In Hamas Captivity
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 08:40 AM
The Gaza truce has collapsed and Israel has resumed its bombing campaign of the Strip, following a full week of ceasefire and seven rounds of hostage/prisoner exchanges.
Qatar and Egypt were reportedly pressing to extend the temporary pause in fighting for another two days, but Israel was not satisfied with the list of captives offered. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been looking into Hamas claims that the two young Bibas brothers were killed. “Israeli military has informed Bibas family members it is assessing a Hamas claim that the youngest Israeli hostage, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas, his brother Ariel, 4, and their mother Shiri are no longer alive,”CNN reports.
This grim and tragic revelation is likely what left Israel with less incentive to keep the ceasefire going, also as pressure has mounted from ultra-conservative circles within Netanyahu’s own ruling coalition to take the fight back to Hamas, and to see through the vow of eliminating the terror group.
Another big factor was Thursday’s terror attack involving a pair of Palestinian gunmen who unleashed M16 and pistol fire on a crowd waiting at a Jerusalem bus stop, killing three Israelis and injuring 16. Shortly after the attack, Hamas claimed responsibility.
It’s likely that negotiators in Doha are still scrambling to get a ceasefire urgently back in place. After all, Israel says there are still 137 hostages in Hamas captivity, which also includes some Americans. In total 110 were returned home over the past week, with hundreds of Palestinian prisoners released as part of the swap. The Times of Israel details of those who remain captive:
Among those still in captivity after the end of the truce Friday are 115 men, 20 women and two children, government spokesperson Eylon Levy says. Ten of the hostages are 75 and older, he says. The majority, or 126, are Israeli and 11 are foreign nationals, including eight from Thailand.
Levy lists the youngest hostage, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas, his 4-year-old brother Ariel and their mother Shiri as among the hostages. The military has said it is investigating a Hamas claim that the boys and their mother were killed.
Dozens of Palestinians have been reported killed after airstrikes started again Friday morning…
Israel and mediators in Qatar were able to secure the release of most of the women and children hostages, as the last days have seen, but still 20 women remain along with the possibly still alive Bibas brothers, fate unknown. Israel as of Thursday welcomed eight more Israelis back from Hamas captivity.
The IDF is meanwhile already dropping leaflets over parts of southern Israel telling civilians to leave their homes and leave the area. Prior to the truce, there were sporadic bombardments of parts of the south. But now it looks like the IDF will take the fight to the southern half too, even after Secretary of State Blinken’s urgings not to, conveyed to PM Netanyahu yesterday.
Blinken flew out of Tel Aviv as IDF warplanes began the renewed bombing campaign…
Rockets have resumed being fired from Gaza, and Israel is again evacuating some southern communities, as both sides could once again be settling in for a ‘long war’. Rockets could also once again be coming from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is likely to rejoin the fight. On Thursday Blinken had urged Netanyahu to avoid killing civilians and that the soaring Gaza death toll is increasingly turning world opinion against Israel.
end
FOUR HOSTAGES
Israel recovers the body of an Israeli soldier in GAZA and were told 3 other hostages are now confirmed dead. There were murdered! We still do not know the whereabouts of the BIBAS children and mother
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel recovers body of hostage, three more killed in Gaza
Three more who had been kidnapped, and one other who had thought to have been so, were declared dead on Friday.
By SAM HALPERNDECEMBER 1, 2023 18:09Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2023 20:38
Guy Iloz(photo credit: Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
Another three hostages taken by Hamas during the terror organization’s rampage in southern Israel on October 7 were announced dead, Israeli security forces and media stated on Friday.
The body of one of the murdered hostages, Ofir Tzarfati was recovered by the IDF and Shin Bet in the Gaza Strip. It was subsequently brought back into Israel.
Tzarfati was a soldier abducted from the vicinity of the Re’im base on October 7.
His body was identified by medical and military rabbinate personnel along with the Institute of Forensic Medicine and Israel Police.
The second hostage, Guy Ilouz, 26, who was abducted from Re’im was a music and sound technician who had worked with prominent Israeli musicians including Shalom Hanoch, Matti Caspi, and the band, HaYehudim.
Guy Iloz (credit: Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
Chaim Broyde, the mayor of Ra’anana, mourned the loss of the young man saying he was “heartbroken, as hope was replaced by a great pain.”
Ilouz had been a participant at the Nova Music Festival on October 7.Advertisement
Later on Friday evening, Israeli media reported that another Israeli kidnapped by Hamas, Eliyahu Margalit, 75, had also been murdered in Gaza.
Margalit’s daughter, Nili, had been released from Hamas captivity the previous day.
Israeli thought to have been kidnapped by Hamas announced dead
Ronen Engel, a resident of the southern Israeli community of Kibbutz Nir Oz, was also announced dead, the Nir Oz spokesperson said on Friday.
Engel, 54, who was a photographer and MDA volunteer, had previously thought to have been kidnapped along with his wife and two daughters on October 7.
His wife and two daughters were released this week during a round of hostage-prisoner exchanges.
This is a developing story.
end
Army: 4 Nir Oz residents abducted in Oct. 7 onslaught died in Hamas captivity
IDF confirms deaths of Aryeh Zalmanovich, Maya Goren, Ronen Engel, Eliyahu Margalit; Zalmanovich, 85, was the oldest hostage; relatives of Engel and Margalit were freed this week
Aryeh Zalmanovich (top right) Maya Goren (top left), Ronen Engel (bottom left), and Eliyahu Margalit (bottom right), all of whom who were taken hostage from Kibbutz Nir Oz by Hamas on October 7 and declared dead on December 1, 2023. (Courtesy; combination image: Times of Israel)
Kibbutz Nir Oz announced Friday that three of its residents who had been taken hostage by the Hamas terror group in the October 7 assault have died in captivity.
The kibbutz named them as Aryeh Zalmanovich, 85, the oldest of the 240 people kidnapped by Hamas, Maya Goren, 56, a legendary kindergarten teacher in the community, and Ronen Engel, 54, whose wife and two daughters were returned to Israel earlier this week after being abducted alongside him.
The Israel Defense Forces later confirmed their deaths, along with that of fellow Nir Oz resident Eliyahu Margalit, 75, whose daughter was released from Hamas captivity on Thursday.
“We are continuing to invest many intelligence and operational efforts, to bring information on the conditions of the hostages,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said during a press conference. ”
Hagari added the four’s deaths were declared “based on findings that were collected, and intelligence.”
Get The Times of Israel’s Daily Editionby email and never miss our top storiesNewsletter email addressGET IT
As part of its campaign of psychological warfare, Hamas released a video last month of Zalmanovich that raised questions about his well-being.
Zalmanovich was taken hostage from his home in Nir Oz on October 7 and was not heard from since. Before being kidnapped, he managed to text one of his sons informing him that terrorists had infiltrated the kibbutz.
He was one of the kibbutz’s founding members and worked as a farmer there for decades.
“Aryeh was all his life a man of the earth, engaged in agriculture and farming,” Nir Oz said in their announcement. “He was a man of books and had extensive knowledge in the fields of history and the land of Israel.”
Zalmanovich was born in Haifa and in 1955 was part of the group that founded Nir Oz. He would work in agriculture there for the rest of his life.
He is survived by two sons and five grandchildren.
Aryeh Zalmanovich. (Courtesy)
The kibbutz also said that Goren was murdered in captivity. Her body remains with Hamas.
Goren, a teacher in Nir Oz, was setting up the kibbutz’s kindergarten space on the morning of October 7 when the Hamas attack erupted. Her husband, Avner, was murdered inside the couple’s home.
The couple are survived by four children, ages 18, 21, 23 and 25.
Two of their children weren’t on the kibbutz at the time, while two live in housing for kibbutz teenagers, an area of the kibbutz that the terrorists didn’t reach.
Maya Goren, left, was abducted by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Her husband, Avner Goren, was killed. The kibbutz announced on December 1 that she was killed and her body was held by Hamas in Gaza. (Courtesy)
Nir Oz announced that Engel was also murdered in captivity. His body is believed to be held by Hamas in Gaza.
A statement from the kibbutz said Engel was a photographer, volunteer in Magen David Adom and loved motorcycles.
“May his memory be a blessing,” the statement said.
Engel is survived by his wife Karina Engel-Bart, 51, and daughters Mika, 18, and Yuval, 11. The three were held in Gaza for 52 days before being released on Monday as part of a temporary ceasefire agreement. It is unknown whether the news on Engel’s fate was tied to his family’s release.
In the family’s last messages before being abducted on October 7, they said that they were hiding in their sealed room, aware of what was taking place on the grounds at Nir Oz.
Karina Engel-Bart was on the phone with her sister Paula when she suddenly said, “Paula, they’re here, they’re here.”
The call was cut short and all communication was lost.
Around midday, Ronen’s brother Dani was looking at his brother’s Facebook page, when he saw a new story posted: A video of a Hamas terrorist, smiling into the camera, saying something in Arabic.
The family’s phones were traced and located in Gaza and family members were told there were no signs of violence in the house, that it wasn’t burned and their dog was alive.
Engel family (L-R): Yuval, Karina, Mika and Ronen. The family was taken captive by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023, from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Three members were released on November 27, 2023, while father Ronen remains captive in Gaza. (Courtesy)
Eliyahu Margalit was last seen on the morning of October 7, when he went to feed his horses at Nir Oz. It remains unclear what Margalit’s condition was when he was abducted by terrorists.
Kibbutz Nir Oz resident Eliyahu Margalit’s death was confirmed by the IDF on December 1, 2023. His body remains in Gaza. (Courtesy)
His daughter Nili Margalit, 41, was taken hostage by Hamas terrorists at her Nir Oz home on October 7 and held in Gaza for 55 days before being released on Thursday.
Margalit, a nurse at Soroka Hospital, was in touch with several friends the morning of the attack. At the time, she was in her safe room with her dog and texted that the terrorists had been walking around “for hours.”
She reported that she was locked in her safe room and could hear gunfire outside.
After 9:12 a.m., there was no communication from her.
Her Nir Oz house was completely burned, and it took several weeks for the army to confirm that Margalit was taken hostage to Gaza.
Nurse Nili Margalit was taken captive by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 from Kibbutz Nir Oz and freed on November 30, 2023. (Courtesy)
Friday’s announcements come as the IDF resumed its Gaza offensive on Friday after the breakdown of a weeklong truce.
During the truce, 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity in Gaza, including 81 Israelis, 23 Thai nationals and 1 Filipino, in exchange for 210 Palestinian prisoners, all of them women or minors. Israel also allowed an influx of humanitarian aid into the Strip.
Still held hostage by Gaza terror groups when the truce collapsed were 136 people — 114 men, 20 women and two children — government spokesperson Eylon Levy said. Ten of the hostages are 75 and older. The vast majority of the hostages, 125, are Israeli. Eleven are foreign nationals, including eight from Thailand.
Israel launched an offensive against Hamas in Gaza after the October 7 assault on southern Israel in which some 1,200 people were killed, most of them civilians, and some 240 taken hostage.
END
late this afternoon: another murder in gaza to an abductee.
The Gaza border community of Kibbutz Be’eri has announced the death of Kibbutz member, 70-year-old Ofra Keidar, whose body is being held by Hams in Gaza.
Keidar, a mother of three children and grandmother, went for her regular morning walk on October 7 and never returned home. In a phone call with her family, she managed to tell them that terrorists were shooting at her, and she was heard asking them, “Why are you shooting at me? What did I do?” Her husband, Sami, who suffered from Parkinson’s disease, was murdered in their living room. Their daughter, Yael, who has mild intellectual disabilities, survived by locking herself in the shelter
Israel conducted airstrikes against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip on Friday morning, according to a statement from the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit.
This comes shortly after the end of the week-long ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
end
FRIDAY MORNING 7 AM
Aid trucks for Gaza stopped last night from Egypt.
(Jerusalem Post)
Aid trucks for Gaza stopped in Egypt as Israeli campaign resumes- sources
By REUTERSDECEMBER 1, 2023 13:51
The entry of aid and fuel trucks for the Gaza Strip at Egypt’s Rafah crossing halted on Friday, Egyptian security and aid sources said, as Israel resumed its military campaign following a week-long truce.
The quantity of aid delivered through the Rafah crossing had increased during the truce, though aid officials said it was still far less than what was needed.
Rafah has been the only entry point for humanitarian relief destined for Gaza, with deliveries beginning on Oct. 21, two weeks after the start of the war.
END
USA imposes visa bans on Israeli extremist settlers from the West Bank. The USA is gunning for statehood for the Palestinians. This will not happen as long as they want the extermination of the Jewish state.
(Jerusalem Post)
US to impose visa bans on Israeli extremist settlers for West Bank violence
The West Bank, among the territories where Palestinians seek statehood, has experienced a surge of violence in recent months.
By REUTERSDECEMBER 1, 2023 13:00Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2023 14:03
US-Israel visa waiver deal: American and Israeli passport (illustration)(photo credit: HADAR YOUAVIAN/FLASH90)
The Biden administration has informed Israel that Washington will impose visa bans in the next few weeks on Israeli extremist settlers engaged in violence against Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank, a senior State Department official said.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet have let them know that the United States will take its own action against an undisclosed number of individuals.
The West Bank, among the territories where Palestinians seek statehood, has experienced a surge of violence in recent months amid expanding Jewish settlements and a nearly decade-old impasse in US-sponsored peacemaking.
The violence, at a more-than-15-year high this year, surged further after Israel hurtled into a new war in the separate enclave of Gaza in response to Palestinian militant group Hamas unleashing the deadliest day in Israel’s history on Oct. 7.
The United States has repeatedly expressed its concern over the rising violence in the West Bank, saying it must stop. US President Joe Biden, in a Nov. 18 Washington Post opinion piece threatened to take action against the perpetrators.
“I have been emphatic with Israel’s leaders that extremist violence against Palestinians in the West Bank must stop and that those committing the violence must be held accountable. The United States is prepared to take our own steps, including issuing visa bans against extremists attacking civilians in the West Bank,” Biden wrote.
The State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said Washington wants Israel to prosecute the perpetrators but has yet to see such a step.Advertisement
The visa bans could come in the next few weeks, the official said.
Daily settler attacks have more than doubled, UN figures show, since Hamas, which controls the coastal enclave of Gaza to Israel’s southwest, killed 1,200 Israelis and took about 240 hostages. Israel has since bombed and invaded Gaza, killing more than 15,000 people.
END
Israel struck yesterday a Houthi facility in Yemen. There was a huge explosion and thus they hit a munitions depot
Israel struck a military facility belonging to the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Sanaa in Yemen, the Saudi al-Hadath TV reported on Friday.
On Thursday, an explosion was reported at a military facility in Sanaa. While Saudi media reported that the explosion was caused by an airstrike, a senior Houthi official claimed that the explosion was caused by the detonation of old munitions which set dry trees on fire.
end
Israel shoots down aerial target launched from Lebanon
Israeli air defense systems intercepted a suspicious aerial target that had crossed from Lebanese territory into Israel, the IDF stated on Friday afternoon.
Israeli rocket and missile alarms sounded in the country’s North after the target was initially identified.END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Israel targets terror cells in Lebanon. Conflict heating up over there
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel targets Hezbollah terror cells as conflict in Lebanon flares up
Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television channel reported that two had been killed in Israeli shelling.
By SAM HALPERNDECEMBER 1, 2023 15:17Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2023 19:55
HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS hold flags marking Resistance and Liberation Day, in Kfar Kila near the Lebanese border with Israel in May.(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
The IDF struck on Friday a terrorist cell operating in Lebanese territory adjacent to the Israeli border community of Zar’it in response to rocket strikes by Hezbollah, the IDF stated on Friday afternoon.
Earlier on Friday, Israeli air defense systems intercepted a suspicious aerial target that had crossed from Lebanese territory into Israel, the IDF noted. Israeli rocket and missile alarms sounded in the country’s North after the target was initially identified.
Later, more rocket launches from Lebanon were fired at IDF posts in northern Israel in the areas of Rosh HaNikra and Margaliot, as well as Kiryat Shmona.
The IDF responded to the attacks with artillery fire targeting the source of the launches.
Hezbollah says Israeli shelling kills two
Reuters, citing the Hezbollah television channel Al-Manar, reported on Friday that Israeli shelling of Houla, a border town in southern Lebanon, had resulted in the deaths of two people.
The IDF targets a terror cell in southern Lebanon. December 1, 2023. (Credit: IDF)
The exchange of fire between Israel and fighters in Lebanon comes in the wake of the collapse of the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas and as fighting resumes in the Gaza Strip.
Later on Friday, the IDF said that it had hit more terror infrastructure in Lebanon and named Hezbollah as the target.Advertisement
According to the Israeli military, a coordinated attack consisting of airstrikes, combat helicopter strikes, and artillery fire slammed into Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure.
The IDF also said that it targeted a cell in the area of Malkiya, a kibbutz near the Lebanon border, that had been attempting to attack northern Israel.
end
Interesting analysis
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel-Hamas war: Sinwar’s disruption of truce deal may turn against him – analysis
The IDF is positioned to proactively target Hamas’s core strength, potentially accelerating the negotiations for releasing captives, rather than merely responding to terror attacks.
By AMIR BOHBOTDECEMBER 1, 2023 20:53Updated: DECEMBER 1, 2023 21:11
HAMAS-GAZA leader Yahya Sinwar attends a rally in Gaza City, in March.(photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)
While the relentless terror theater persists, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been attempting to alter the established protocol for releasing captives. Despite the resumption of hostilities, the negotiations remain active, though their failure looms as a significant risk.
Hamas, through Qatar and Egypt’s mediation, had coordinated a new phase in the negotiations. However, Sinwar disrupted the process before 07:00. IDF forces in Gaza’s western region grappled with how to respond to his armed militants. This tension escalated into an exchange of fire, prompting the deployment of fighter jets and subsequent rocket launches.
Sinwar, up until the final moments, seemed to maintain control in the area. Despite the IDF‘s claims of dominating northern Gaza, soldiers observed Sinwar’s operatives swiftly emerging from tunnels right after the ceasefire, a move that bewildered them due to the operatives’ precise timing and lack of weapons. Throughout the IDF’s ground operations and ceasefire in Gaza, Sinwar regularly communicated with Qatar and Egypt, actively engaging in negotiations with Israel despite the risk of exposing his hideout.
Abu Obeida, the Hamas military wing’s spokesperson, has continued to orchestrate a terror narrative, characterized by frequent media communications, surrounding the captives with Nukhba [naval commandos in a special forces unit of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades] operatives, last-minute changes in release timings, and orchestrated release visuals, including handshakes and waves. They even paraded a distressed captive woman and a wheelchair, aiming to soften their otherwise brutal image.
What motivated Sinwar to derail the negotiations
This raises the question: What motivated Sinwar to derail the negotiations? He seems intent on changing the long-standing exchange formula involving babies, children, women, and the elderly, especially as he nears the negotiation’s most challenging phase — exchanging soldiers for prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli jails. Despite understanding the significant attention the Bibas family receives from Israeli society and global media, Sinwar declared the murder of the Bibas mother and her children, releasing a video of the grieving father.
Yahya Sinwar (credit: REUTERS)
Currently, the situation remains fluid, with the potential for rescue depending on both parties’ willingness to act. The imminent question is what tomorrow holds, whether the negotiations progress or are further delayed by either side. The IDF faces a decision: to conduct aerial strikes in the coming days while avoiding ground maneuvers to facilitate ongoing negotiations, or to launch a broad, aggressive assault that might hasten an alternative negotiation with Hamas, albeit at a greater cost to the terrorist organization.
Ultimately, the IDF is positioned to proactively target Hamas’s core strength, potentially accelerating the negotiations for releasing captives, rather than merely responding to terror attacks and the psychological warfare led by Obeida.
END
FINAL WORD ON ISRAEL-HAMAS TONIGHT:
ZEROHEDGE
Israel Pounds Southern Gaza As Officials Say ‘Long War’ Expected For A Year Or More
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 02:05 PM
Update(1405ET): All hell has broken loose on the first day of renewed fighting in Gaza post-truce. A UNICEF spokesperson said of the Friday bombardment, “This nightmare for people today just somehow got so much worse.” Already, Palestinian sources have said that over 100 have been killed in the last hours of IDF bombing of the Strip. Israeli media is reporting that at least 50 rockets have been launched from Gaza onto southern Israel.
The aerial campaign has even expanded to include the southern half of the Strip, after throughout the early phase of the conflict Gazans were told to abandon their homes in the north and flee south for safety:
Footage verified by Al Jazeera shows numerous plumes of smoke in the sky from Israeli army strikes on Khan Younis. …Khan Younis in southern Gaza is where thousands of Palestinians have fled from bombing farther north.
Earlier in the day, the Israeli army dropped leaflets on the city, instructing Palestinians there to flee farther south to Rafah.
The White House has said it supports Israel, and has blamed Hamas for the ceasefire’s collapse. Israeli officials have explained that Hamas refused to release ten more women captives. Israel says “This violated the terms of the agreement, which specified that Hamas would first release all women and children being held in Gaza in exchange for Israel agreeing to a truce for as long as nine days.”
Perhaps the biggest and most ominous development in terms of what the future holds is seen in Israeli officials’ words to Financial Times. The Netanyahu is planning for a “long war” which could reach over the next year or more. FT writes in a new report:
Israel is planning a campaign against Hamas that will stretch for a year or more, with the most intensive phase of the ground offensive continuing into early 2024, according to several people familiar with the preparations. The multi-phase strategy envisages Israeli forces, who are garrisoned inside north Gaza, making an imminent push deep into the south of the besieged Palestinian enclave.
The goals include killing the three top Hamas leaders — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa — while securing “a decisive” military victory against the group’s 24 battalions and underground tunnel network and destroying its “governing capability in Gaza”.
“This will be a very long war . . . We’re currently not near halfway to achieving our objectives,” said one person familiar with the Israeli war plans. Israel’s overall strategy for Gaza is flexible, with timing dictated by multiple “clocks”, including operational progress on the ground, international pressure and opportunities to free Israeli hostages, the people said.
We’re only eight weeks in, and already there are signs this could easily spark a broader conflict. Another year of the bloodshed certainly opens the likelihood for a Mideast-wide conflagration involving possibly the US, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis.
Blinken’s meager “efforts” to achieve continued ceasefire… he packed up and left Israel as IDF warplanes went airborne.
This ought to be good: Texas sues Pfizer for misrepresenting the COVID 19 vaccine efficacy.
What took them so long.
(zerohedge)
Texas Sues Pfizer For “Misrepresenting COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy” And “Conspiring To Censor Public Discourse”
THURSDAY, NOV 30, 2023 – 05:20 PM
The Texas attorney general is suing pharmaceutical giant Pfizer for misrepresenting the effectiveness of the company’s Covid-19 “vaccine” and for conspiring to censor those who questioned its claims.
The suit, filed Thursday, alleges that Pfizer violated the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act by engaging in false, deceptive and misleading acts as it promoted the drug.
“The facts are clear. Pfizer did not tell the truth about their COVID-19 vaccines,” said Attorney General Kenneth Paxton in a statement revealing the suit.
“We are pursuing justice for the people of Texas, many of whom were coerced by tyrannical vaccine mandates to take a defective product sold by lies.“
He has accused the company of “unlawfully misrepresenting the effectiveness of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine and attempting to censor public discussion of the product,” according to a press release.
“Pfizer engaged in false, deceptive, and misleading acts and practices by making unsupported claims regarding the company’s COVID-19 vaccine in violation of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act,” the release continues
Much of Paxton’s 54-page-complaint focuses on Pfizer’s December 20, 2020 claim that its vaccine was “95% effective.”
However, according to the complaint, “more Americans died in 2021, with Pfizer’s vaccine available, than in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.” He also cites government reports concluding that in some places, deaths among vaccinated people outpaced those among the unvaccinated, even on a percentage basis.
Pfizer’s claim of 95% efficacy rested on deceptive framing of clinical trial observations, says the complaint:
That number was only ever legitimate in a solitary, highly- technical, and artificial way—it represented a calculation of the so-called “relative risk reduction” for vaccinated individuals in Pfizer’s then-unfinished pivotal clinical trial.
But FDA publications indicate “relative risk reduction” is a misleading statistic that “unduly influence[s]” consumer choice.
Indeed, per FDA: “when information is presented in a relative risk format, the risk reduction seems large and treatments are viewed more favorably than when the same information is presented” using more accurate metrics.
The critical 95% claim came at a point when Pfizer only had an average of two months data on participants, says Paxton.
Specifically, the Texas AG says that of the 17,000 who received a placebo, only 162 contracted the illness, which makes for a poor baseline from which to judge the efficacy of the so-called vaccine.
Had Pfizer used the FDA’s preferred metric — absolute risk reduction — it would have instead informed the public that “the vaccine was merely 0.85% effective,” writes Paxton.
Paxton also accuses Pfizer of creating a false impression about the vaccine’s duration of protection without having any basis. Worse, the complaint accuses Pfizer of “withhold[ing] highly relevant data and information from the consuming public showing that efficacy waned.” Pfizer is also alleged to have made baseless claims and insinuations about the vaccine’s supposed ability to thwart transmission and to be helpful against variants.
The complaint also says Pfizer “took overt action to intimidate and silence persons who spread factual information about vaccine efficacy,” a censorship drive that allowed the company to “secure commitments to purchase at least 415 million and 2.7 billion doses from the U.S. and foreign governments respectively.” Pfizer’s actions included pressuring social media platforms to silence influential doubters.
It’s with no small amount of hesitation that we’ve referred to Pfizer’s shot as a “vaccine.” After all, in practice, it behaved nothing like how that term was understood before the pandemic. For example, prior to Covid-19, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defined “vaccination” as “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease.”
After the so-called Covid-19 vaccines proved to produce something far short of reliable immunity, the CDC moved the goalpoststo benefit pharmaceutical companies and their fellow travelers in the public health bureaucracy. As Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie highlighted, in September 2021, CDCposted new language defining vaccination as “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce protection from a specific disease”:
Both? Vaccine mainly? Only? We knew the vaccine damaged the innate immune system of children & Vanden Bossche warned as did I; not to give it until young child had time to ‘train’ innate antibodies
See my prior substack. Some say this is nothing, it is fear-porn, bullshit as usual yet can we discount this given reports now in US after reports in Europe? We were discounting the ones in China given China’s duplicity and games and lies all along.
40 participants (5.1%; 95% CI 3.7-7.0%) had elevated hs-cTnT (troponin) concentration on day 3 & Moderna vaccine-associated myocardial injury was adjudicated in 22 participants (2.8% [95% CI 1.7-4.3%]
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Among 777 participants (median age 37 years, 69.5% women), 40 participants (5.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-7.0%) had elevated hs-cTnT concentration on day 3 and mRNA-1273 vaccine-associated myocardial injury was adjudicated in 22 participants (2.8% [95% CI 1.7-4.3%]). Twenty cases occurred in women (3.7% [95% CI 2.3-5.7%]), two in men (0.8% [95% CI 0.1-3.0%]).
Cases had comparable systemic reactogenicity, concentrations of anti-IL-1RA, anti-NP, anti-S1, and markers quantifying systemic inflammation, but lower concentrations of interferon (IFN)-λ1 (IL-29) and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) versus persons without vaccine-associated myocardial injury.
Conclusion:
mRNA-1273 vaccine-associated myocardial injury was more common than previously thought, being mild and transient, and more frequent in women versus men. The possible protective role of IFN-λ1 (IL-29) and GM-CSF warrant further studies.’
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued Pfizer for misrepresenting the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine and attempting to censor public discussion of the product.
“The facts are clear. Pfizer did not tell the truth about their COVID-19 vaccines. Whereas the Biden Administration weaponized the pandemic to force illegal public health decrees on the public and enrich pharmaceutical companies, I will use every tool I have to protect our citizens who were misled and harmed by Pfizer’s actions.”
“We are pursuing justice for the people of Texas, many of whom were coerced by tyrannical vaccine mandates to take a defective product sold by lies.”
The legal complaint focuses on Pfizer’s claim that its vaccine was “95% effective” and argues that Pfizer’s claim of 95% vaccine effectiveness is misleading, as it relies on relative risk reduction instead of the FDA’s preferred metric, absolute risk reduction, which would show an effectiveness of only 0.85%.
“Pfizer fostered a misleading impression that vaccine protection was durable and withheld from the public information that undermined its claims about the duration of protection. And, despite the fact that its clinical trial failed to measure whether the vaccine protects against transmission, Pfizer embarked on a campaign to intimate the public into getting the vaccine as a necessary measure to protect their loved ones.”
And when the vaccine’s failure “became apparent” Pfizer silenced critics:
“How did Pfizer respond when it became apparent that its vaccine was failing and the viability of its cash cow under threat? By intimidating those spreading the truth, and by conspiring to censor the vaccine’s critics. Pfizer labeled as “criminals” those who spread facts about the vaccine. It accused them of spreading “misinformation.” And it coerced social media platforms to silence prominent truth-tellers.”
“… COVID-19 cases increased after widespread vaccine administration, and some areas saw a greater % of deaths from COVID-19 among the vaccinated population than the unvaccinated. When failure of its product became apparent, Pfizer then pivoted to silencing truth-tellers.”
“More Americans died in 2021, with Pfizer’s vaccine available, than in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.”
is this SYSTEMIC? is this worldwode surge in this white pneumonia due to roughly similar COVID lockdown lunacy that weakened immune systems? Did the mRNA COVID vaccines do this? Malone? Bourla? Sahin?
The above image pictures the lungs during ‘white lung syndrome’ or acute respiratory distress syndrome, which is diagnosed via the white spots or opaque areas appearing in the lungs. The above patient was a 57-year-old man in 2014
I ask, what is the link to RSV virus, so an initial bout? Is there a link? What is the role of mycoplasma pneumoniae? Is this a seasonal epidemic? Is this a quartet confluence of some Covid virus e.g. EG.5, HV.1 etc., seasonal flu and RSV as well as mycoplasma? Did the lockdowns prevent proper training of the emerging novice infant and child immune systems (innate antibodies that must be exposed to pathogen and trained as maternal antibodies wane at 6 months as well as natural killer (NK) cells) leaving them vulnerable now as we opened up fully this year, this winter season for the first time? Did the Malone, Kariko, Weissman, Bourla, Bancel, Sahin et al. mRNA technology and subsequent mRNA vaccine do this? Have they screwed (subverted) a portion of our vaccinated kids for life? What is happening here? Should we inquire form them?
Is the immune system of an unvaccinated child the PRIZE, the gold standard today? To be protected and under no circumstance give your child the COVID vaccine which we argued would have played a role in something like this?
Covid Vaccinated Teens 4 Times More Likely to Die from Cancer than UnvaxxedREAD MORE…
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NEWS ADDICT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Disinflation
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 09:07 AM
Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank
Inflation data from the Eurozone and the US were encouraging with declines in headline and core inflation. While inflation is falling, OPEC+ is said to have decided to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day. This will not be announced by a communique, but individually by each country. This news was not enough to boost oil prices yesterday.
As our Elwin de Groot put it yesterday, Eurozone inflation data confirm the favorable trend seen in recent data in several member states, such as Germany, France and Spain. Headline inflation dropped more sharply than expected to 3.6 %y/y in November from 4.2% in October but it was a large negative surprise in core inflation that really drew attention. Core inflation fell to 3.6%, 0.3%-points more than the consensus estimate, which is a sizeable negative surprise.
The broad-based decline in inflation when looking at the key components suggests that the weakening economy is increasingly weighing on businesses’ willingness or perhaps even ability to raise prices. Energy, food, industrial goods and services inflation all fell. The question is whether services sector firms can refrain from price hikes when their cost base continues to increase (wages growing at a clip of 4-5% a year), but at least these data suggest that some service sector providers may be taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. The big size of the services inflation drop (from 4.6% to 3.9% y/y) may also point at one-off (or transitory) effects, such as from the recreation and culture sector, but lack of details at this point does not allow a firm conclusion there.
US PCE inflation fell to 3.0% headline and 3.5% core in October in year-on-year terms, with headline prices flat between September and October and core prices climbing by 0.2%. This means that both headline and core PCE inflation are now ahead of the FOMC projections made in September, which anticipated 3.3% headline and 3.7% core inflation in the final quarter of this year. Goods inflation has fallen to 0.2% from 0.9% year-on-year and services inflation to 4.4% from 4.7%. Even the component watched most closely by the FOMC improved. Core services ex housing inflation, as calculated by Bloomberg, fell to 3.9% from 4.3% year-on year and to 0.1% from 0.4% month-on-month. This should give the FOMC some confidence that this component, closely related to labor market tightness and wage growth, is easing as well. The PCE inflation data support the FOMC remaining on hold in December. In the remainder of the year, headline PCE inflation is likely to move sideways, while we expect core PCE inflation to continue its gradual decline.
Meanwhile, US personal spending slowed down to 0.2% in October, both in nominal and real terms. This is in line with the Fed’s Beige Book, published on Wednesday, which concluded that sales of discretionary items and durable goods declined on average. Personal income also slowed down to 0.2%, from 0.4% (revised) in September.
Initial jobless claims rebounded modestly to 218K in the week ending on November 25, from 211K (revised) a week before. Continuing claims saw a bigger jump to 1927K in the week ending on November 18, from 1841K (revised) a week earlier. This is the highest level in almost two years, after 1964K in the week ending on November 26. 2021. Note that the unemployment rate has quietly risen to 3.9% from 3.4% this year. An increase of this size in the three month averages of the unemployment rate would signal the start of a recession according to the Sahm rule. We are not there yet, but we continue to expect a US recession in the coming months.
In an interview with a German financial newspaper earlier this month, but published yesterday, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, who will be voting in 2024, said it was too soon to say if hikes are finished, that interest rates are in a very good place to control inflation and she’s not thinking about rate cuts. However, she said “We don’t need an insurance mentality now, where we hedge against rising inflation. We should simply be patient and remain vigilant.” So Daly wants the FOMC to remain on hold, but is in no hurry to cut rates.
New York Fed president John Williams, speaking at a conference, said the Fed’s policy rate is at or near its peak level and that rates are “estimated to be the most restrictive in 25 years.” He said he expected it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustainable basis. Williams is a permanent voter on the FOMC and also in no rush to pivot. Markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in an almost 50% chance of a rate cut in March, but even the FOMC’s own projections made in September showed two rate cuts of 25 bps each before the end of 2024.
While we seem to be heading for a rematch between Biden and Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, Fox hosted a debate between Governor Gavin Newsom (Democrat, California) and Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican, Florida), which can either be seen as an early presidential debate for 2028 or a debate between two reserve-candidates for 2024. DeSantis probably hoped to boost his chances in the current Republican primaries, after Nikki Haley’s campaign to be the main challenger to Trump has gained momentum.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0883 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 148.30 UP .305 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2637 UP 0.0006
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3547 DOWN 10 (CDN DOLLAR UP 10 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 212,56 PTS OR 1,25%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .17% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 212,56 PTS OR 1,25%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.06%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.17%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 55.38 PTS OR 0.17%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2034.25
silver:$25.09
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.45 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1399
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1312)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.91 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.705…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 9 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.2570% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.457 DOWN 9 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.598 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 75.60 POINTS or 1.01%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 182.09 PTS OR 1.12%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 35.38 PTS OR 0.48%
Spain IBEX UP 82.60 PTS OR 0.82%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 191.07 PTS OR 0.64%
WTI Oil price 76.34 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.04 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.41; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 96//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.364 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.187 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0877 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2706 UP .0077 or 75 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1780% DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .700%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.81 DOWN 1.118 //YEN UP 112 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3493 DOWN 0.0064 CDN dollar UP 64 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 74.21
Brent OIL: 79.06
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 15 BASIS pts to 4.210%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 13 BASIS PTS to 4.407%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 17 PTS AT 4.557 %
USA dollar index: 103.17 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.90 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.41 DOWN 0 AND 96/100 roubles
GOLD 2070.30 3:30 PM
SILVER: 25.49 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 294.61 PTS OR 0.82%
NASDAQ UP 49.71 PTS OR 0.31%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.67 DOWN .25 PTS (1.93)%
GLD: $192.01 UP 3.26 OR 1.73%
SLV/ $23.33 UP .20 OR 0.86%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Powell’s Dovish Comments Send Everything Soaring, Gold Hits All Time High As Dollar Plummets
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 04:07 PM
After November’s furious meltup, which saw the S&P rise by 9% (the Nasdaq was up an even more ludicrous 11%), which was the best November for the stock market since 1980…
… all eyes were on Jerome Powell today to see if the Fed chair would say something to stem the surging stock market tide following the month which saw the biggest easing in financial conditions on record, equivalent to nearly 4 rate cuts.
We got the answer shortly after 11am ET, when after what seemed to be otherwise balanced remarks with a dose of hawkish comments…
“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.”
… offset by some clearly dovish statements…
“The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt.”
… and generally sounding rather optimistic while answering student questions, saying that the US is on the path to 2% inflation without large job losses – i.e., a soft landing – which helped the market to convince itself that Powell had just given the green light for a continued market meltup (thanks to the blackout period, there will be no more Fed comments until the Dec 13 FOMC) as Bloomberg put it…
“Powell points to how the Fed’s past tightening moves will continue to have an impact on the economy — the full impact hasn’t been felt yet. If anybody thought the Fed wasn’t finished raising rates, his prepared remarks today sure put a fork in it. They are done.”
…. and what happened next was a violent repricing in easing odds, with March rate cut odds hitting a lifetime high of 80%, effectively doubling overnight and up from 10% just 5 days ago…
… which then immediately cascaded across assets and sent everything exploding higher, led by stocks which surged above 4,600 for the first time since the July FOMC (aka the “final rate hike”)…
…passing through the bond market, and especially 2-Year yields, which tumbled a whopping 12bps to 4.56%…
… and on course for the biggest weekly slide since the regional banking crisis in March, down almost 40bps.
Yet neither stocks, nor bonds, had quite as much fun as either “digital gold”, with Bitcoin briefly hitting a fresh 2023 high, briefly surging to $39,000 before easing back with Ether rising to $2100 …
… but the biggest winner by far from today’s market conclusion that a renewed dollar destruction is on deck, was gold which briefly rose above its all time high of $2,075…
… and that’s just the start: now that a new record is in the history books, a frenzy of gold calls was bought, both for futures and the biggest ETF tied to the metal, and as shown in the chart below, the buildup of open interest between $2,000 and $2,500 has been relentless over the past week on growing optimism that rates are primed to decline. Next up for gold? $2500 or higher.
Yet not everyone had a great day: the dollar predictably tumbled, extending it losses for a third straight week, the longest streak since June, and comes after the dollar saw its worst month in a year this November.
One dollar pair trade where the convexity is especially high is USDJPY, which after soaring for much of the past year suddenly finds itself in a Wile E Coyote moment, trading just below the 100DMA. Should the selling persist, we may see the pair quickly tumble down to 140, or lower.
To be sure, not all the moves made sense: as Bloomberg noted, bonds have a better reason to rally than stocks, which have to factor in the growth concerns that underpin Powell’s remarks. Evidence is gathering that the economy is slowing and stocks will have to reconcile that with their bullish rate views. Today’s ISM Manufacturing data is case in point that the stagflationary slowing that started in October — and Bloomberg Economics says it’s observing typical early signs of recession — extended last month.
The ISM commentary was generally downbeat, equally split between companies hiring and others reducing their labor forces “a first since such comments have been tracked” according to Bloomberg.
But it gets worse: the latest update to the Atlanta GDPNOW tracker slipped to 1.2% from 1.8% yesterday and over 2% just last week.
And after diverging for much of the year, all three regional Feds that do GDP nowcasts have converged on 2% – a far cry from the “5.2%” GDP print the Biden department of seasonal adjustments goalseeked last month.
Bottom line: the onus is now on the payrolls report next week to further guide markets into next year. The continued rise in ongoing jobless claims pose a risk that unemployment could rise further. But so far, this isn’t a consensus view, with economists projecting the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.9% (and more see a 3.8% rate than 4%).
And while that may only add more fuel to the rate-cut speculation, at some point the softening in economic data will have to be squared with its impact on profits. As a reminder, while much of the interval between the last rate hike and the first rate cut is favorable for risk assets, the weeks right before the cut usually send stocks anywhere between 10% and 30% lower as the market realizes just why the Fed is panicking.
However, judging by today’s action, we still have some time before that particular rude awakening kicks in.
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation: Prices Paid Up As Jobs Drop
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 10:10 AM
‘Soft’ survey data has been trending serially lower (aside from yesterday’s 13-sigma beat in Chicago PMI), catching down to ‘hard’ data’s decline and this morning saw the final print for S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI drop to 49.4 (from 50.0 in October and down modestly from the 49.5 flash print), driven by a decline in new orders and employment.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to improve (helped by gains in both new orders and employment), but it disappointed, printing 46.7 (the same as October’s final print), below the 47.8 expectations.
Source: Bloomberg
All subsectors of the ISM report contributed negatively:
Source: Bloomberg
While PMI price data slowed, ISM Prices Paid jumped higher (though still below 50) as Employment declined…
Source: Bloomberg
One respondent summed things up perfectly:
“A slow fourth quarter, and we’re clearly in a mild industry recession…” [Fabricated Metal Products]
“Economy absolutely slowing down. Less optimism regarding the first quarter of 2024.” [Chemical Products]
“US manufacturers reported yet another tough month in November. Output barely rose as inflows of new work showed a renewed decline, hinting at little – if any – contribution to fourth quarter GDP from the goods-producing sector.
“Orders have in fact risen in only three of the past 18 months, reflecting a prolonged period of subdued post-pandemic demand, in turn linked to consumers switching their spending to services such as travel and recreation, and business customers reducing excess inventories which had been accumulated during the supply concerns of the pandemic.
“Encouragingly, there are some signs of the inventory cycle starting to turn, with producers of intermediate goods (inputs supplied to other firms) now reporting modest order book growth.
And it gets worse:
“US producers nevertheless continue to focus on cost cutting by trimming headcounts, and have now taken the knife to payroll numbers for two consecutive months.
Barring the early months of the pandemic, the survey has not seen such a back-to-back monthly fall in factory employment since 2009.
Which is a major problem for the service side of the economy, because:
“The decline in employment could feed through to weaker consumer spending, but will also reduce wage bargaining power.
But, the silver lining is – inflation is coming down…
“Lower wage pressures, combined with a marked cooling of raw material input cost inflation, have already fed through to a lowering of average factory selling price inflation for goods to a rate below the average seen in the decade prior to the pandemic, the rate of increase dipping again in November to help further lower consumer price inflation in the months ahead.”
It would appear that the Chicago PMI ‘adjustments’ did not filter al the way up to the national manufacturing surveys…
Source: Bloomberg
We await the ‘revisions’.
“The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the October reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,”says ISM’s Timothy Fiore.
Bidenomics is winning!
END
Construction spending climbs again, fueled by government spending and public works
Dec. 1, 2023 at 10:20 a.m. ET
MarketWatchResidential housing is a laggard
Construction spending rose in October for the 10th month in a row, largely because of work on commercial buildings and government-funded public projects.
Spending on construction increased 0.6% in October to just over a $2 trillion annual rate, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase.
Construction spending reveals how much the government and private companies spend on projects, from housing to highways. More spending tends to be a sign of good times and less spending typically occurs when the economy is weak.
High interest rates have tempered demand for new homes and apartments, but they have had less effect on other forms of construction.
Total construction outlays rose almost 11% in the 12 months ending in October, compared to the 1% uptick in residential investment during the same span.
Government-funded construction has jumped 16% in the past year to buoy the industry.
The Biden administration in 2021 and 2022 approved massive subsidies and other incentives for businesses to build new plants in the U.S., contributing to the recent strength.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Our friends at Pfizer not doing too well. Actually I doubt very much if anybody would take anything produced by these crooks
(zerohedge)
Pfizer Tumbles After Abandoning Weight-Loss Pill
FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2023 – 07:20 AM
With shares already reflecting a post-COVID dearth of revenue streams, Pfizer’s growth outlook just took another hit as it halted development of its experimental weight-loss pill after a high rate of side effects appeared in a mid-stage study.
More than half of patients in the study had to stop taking danuglipron due to nausea and vomiting, according to a statement Friday.
While the most common adverse events in the study were mild, nausea was seen in up to 73% of patients, vomiting in up to 47% and diarrhea in as much as 25%.
Pfizer will continue developing a once-daily version of the pill in hopes that it may improve its tolerability profile.
Pfizer had hoped to follow Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s lead (both of which provide the shot-based GLP-1 agonists that have made so much news this year) and driven massive outperformance…
Pfizer and AstraZeneca saw pills as a way to make inroads into a market projected to reach $100 billion within seven years. Maybe not so much now…
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said that oral weight-loss drugs will capture a third of the obesity market.
The company had pinned its weight-loss hopes on danuglipron after discontinuing another experimental obesity drug in June due to safety concerns.
Pfizer shares are down around 4% in the pre-market, back near their lowest since March 2020 on the back of this news…
Presumably, they did not have a liability waiver this time…
END
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ANTISEMITISM
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
This is a good one!
(VDH)
Victor Davis Hanson: If Trump Wins Next Year, Will His Retribution Match (Or Exceed) The Injustices He’s Endured?
Don’t Do Unto Others What We Would Have Done to Them?
Once more, it gets even creepier how the projectionist Left is daily still shrieking about impending Trump “revenge” and “rage”, or about Trump’s purported enemies lists to come, or about his planned weaponization of the bureaucracies.
The fear is in direct proportion to Biden cognitive decline, sinking polls, and walls-are-closing-in family corruption.
Should we laugh or cry about the transparent hypocrisy?
After all, who tried to wreck an administration with a 22-month-long Russian “collusion” fraud, suppressed a laptop with the lie it was Russian “disinformation”, or impeached a president for a phone call correctly identifying the Biden family’s operation in Ukraine as utterly corrupt and at the expense of U.S. interests?
Do we recall that the Obama-Biden nexus—from 2009-17, and from 2021 until now—cemented the reputation of FBI as a partisan operation, rebooted the Pentagon as an agent of woke change ferreting out “white rage” and “white privilege”, reinvented the DOJ as a Biden family protection service, politicized the CIA so that it, along with the FBI, interfered in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and warped the IRS by suppressing evidence of Biden family tax fraud?
What Lois Lerner, Eric Holder (self-identified as Obama’s “wingman”), and Loretta Lynch left undone was taken up by Merrick Garland.
Does the New York Times, or Joe Scarborough or any of these strange pundits raging about Trump rage to come remember how the “Logan Act” farce was used to destroy Michael Flynn?
Or the Foreign Policy essay of Rosa Brooks, a former Obama-era Pentagon lawyer, about how to drive out Trump without waiting for the 2020 election, by either impeachment, the 25th Amendment – or a military coup?
How about the “kill Trump” porn that saw celebrities, actors, and academics envisioning decapitating, stabbing, shooting, exploding, or incinerating the orange man?
How about Anonymous’s confessions about how fellow bureaucrats were trying to undermine and sabotage the operations of the Trump administration from within? Or the Pentagon’s retired 4-stars calling for Trump to be removed the “sooner the better”, or labeling him a Mussolini or Nazi-like figure?
Who paid Twitter millions to censor the news of political opponents?
Who paid foreign national Christopher Steele to peddle a fake dossier to destroy the 2016 Republican candidate?
Do we remember Biden’s Phantom-of-the-Opera harangue about his “ultra-MAGA” and “semi-fascists” political enemies?
Were not the twin pillars of Biden’s current foreign policy team, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, once respectively knee-deep in the anti-Trump Alfa Bank-ping hoax and the “51 Intelligence Authorities” laptop scam?
Again, the reason the media and politicians are terrified is that they are convinced Trump would do exactly what they would do in his place—and what they would do utterly suddenly horrifies them.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
Even FBI agents are getting carjacked
(Roberts//EpochTimes)
FBI Agent Carjacked Near Capitol Hill In Washington Amid Crime Surge
According to the Metropolitan Police Department, officers responded to the armed carjacking incident in the 100 block of 12th Street NE at about 3:45 p.m.
Police confirmed the victim was a federal agent who told officials that two suspects took their vehicle.
The stolen vehicle was recovered shortly after the incident, at about 4:10 p.m. in the 1000 block of 15th St SE, less than a mile from where the car was taken, officials said.
“At this time, we can confirm that an FBI employee was carjacked on the afternoon of November 29,” an FBI spokesperson said in an emailed statement to NBC Washington.
“The vehicle was recovered, and the FBI Washington Field Office and the Metropolitan Police Department’s Carjacking Task Force are investigating,” the spokesperson added.
No further information has been released regarding the two suspects and officials did not provide further details regarding the lead-up to and aftermath of the carjacking.
The incident comes as violent crime rates have surged across Washington in the past year, according to police data, up 40 percent year-on-year, with homicides up 23 percent, robberies up 69 percent, and arson up 125 percent.
Assaults with a dangerous weapon are also up 3 percent in 2023 compared to last year, according to the data, while motor thefts have surged 93 percent, meaning they have nearly doubled within the past year.
Lawmakers Attacked
So far in 2023, there have also been 906 carjackings, compared to 439 last year, according to separate police data, 77 percent of which involved victims being held at gunpoint.
The significant rise in carjackings and auto thefts has prompted police, via an initiative launched by Mayor Muriel Bowser’s government, to hand out auto-tracking devices.
In October, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) revealed he was also the victim of a carjacking near the Capitol, which he said was carried out by three armed assailants who stole his car.
The lawmaker was not injured during the incident, which took place while he was attempting to park his vehicle outside of his Washington apartment in Navy Yard.
The 68-year-old Texas Democrat’s car was later recovered about two miles away in the Anacostia neighborhood.
Prior to that incident, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), another Democrat, was attacked in an elevator at her Washington apartment building in February.
Roughly a month after that incident, a staffer for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was “brutally attacked in broad daylight” less than 1.5 miles from the U.S. Capitol.
Police said Phillip Todd—a staffer for Mr. Paul on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee—was stabbed “multiple times” by suspect Glynn Neal, 42, of Southeast Washington. Mr. Neal was subsequently arrested and charged with assault with intent to kill using a knife.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Secret Service confirmed its agents tasked with protecting President Joe Biden’s granddaughter, Naomi Biden, opened fire after three people attempted to break into an unmarked Secret Service vehicle in the capital.
No one was struck by the gunfire, the Secret Service said in a statement. The three people were seen fleeing in a red car, and the Secret Service said it put out a regional bulletin to Metropolitan Police to be on the lookout for it.
Amid growing criticism of the surge in crime across Washington, Ms. Bowser, a Democrat, has announced legislation aimed at addressing “public safety challenges” and “giving law enforcement more tools to hold criminals accountable and keep neighborhoods safe.”
Introduced in October, the “Addressing Crime Trends Now Act” (ACT Now), will, among other things reinstate a law preventing criminals from wearing a mask for the purpose of conducting a criminal act or intimidating, create criminal penalties for organized retail theft, limit loitering, and establish “temporary drug-free zones” across the city.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report December 1, 2023 Issue 7130
Independent View of the News
Analysts at China’s CICC told not to publish bearish views, wear luxury items China International Capital Corp (CICC), the country’s third-largest investment bank by market value, has told analysts not to publish bearish views on China’s economy or its financial markets, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-chinas-cicc-told-not-085536214.html
Oil and gasoline tumbled because the market expected involuntary production cuts.
U.S. inflation in 2023: understanding the pause in its decline – ECRI Most analysis on inflation amounts to extrapolating recent trends in coincident measures. In contrast, we are analyzing our forward-looking Future Inflation Gauges that were prescient in catching the strong inflation upturn in the fall of 2020 and its subsequent downturn. Dampening the market’s hopes of a quicker decline in inflation, our forward-looking indicators of inflation have been pretty much flat this year. Indeed, with underlying inflation pressures no longer falling fast, actual inflation is liable to stay stickier for longer… Take the Fed’s official target, year-over-year growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. Having quickly fallen to a 2¼-year low this spring, the measure has been stalled at 3.4% for the past three months… The real problem is that our forward-looking indexes of inflation – while not in new cyclical upturns – have stopped falling this year. The implication is that the abatement of underlying inflation pressures has slowed to a crawl. The bottom line is that despite market hopes, the Fed may be unable to start an easing cycle anytime soon… https://www.businesscycle.com/the-column?id=economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri-lakshman-achuthan-business-cycle-u-s-inflation-in-2023-understanding-the-pause-in-its-decline
@RealEJAntoni: Median PCE price index still running much hotter than either headline or core reading;the inflation trend is not as rosy as it appears, but that was true before the pandemic too: https://t.co/kZPVETAknr
BoE’s Greene says rates might need to stay high for extended period Greene said she believed that the labour market might generate more inflation heat than in the past and the real neutral interest rate – which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy – might also be higher. “These shifts … suggest policy may have to be restrictive for an extended period of time in order return inflation to 2% over the medium-term,” she said in her speech… https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boes-greene-says-rates-might-need-stay-high-extended-period-2023-11-30/
As we have noted several times, Fed officials have claimed that they do NOT want to repeat the mistakes of the ‘70s, but they are repeating the biggest mistake. Hiking rates did NOT arrest inflation. Volcker killed inflation by reducing reserves. Leftists on the Fed will not do what is necessary to arrest inflation, especially in a general election year.
@JoeBiden: Let me be clear to any corporation that hasn’t brought their prices back down even as inflation has come down: It’s time to stop the price gouging. Give American consumers a break.
The Chicago PMI for November unexpectedly soared to 55.8 from 44; 46.0 was consensus. (9:45 release)
Initial Jobless Claims were the expected 218k. Continuing Jobless Claims surged to 1.927m (1.865m expected, 1.841m prior). This is a 2-year high.
Salesforce earnings top estimates, issues upbeat forecast The company reported adjusted earnings of $2.11 per share, well above the $2.06 estimate. Revenue of $8.72 billion just barely topped Wall Street expectations of $8.71 billion. Salesforce also issued fourth quarter adjusted earnings guidance of $2.25 to $2.26 per share, compared to an estimate of $2.17… https://finance.yahoo.com/video/salesforce-earnings-top-estimates-issues-230035417.html
USHs (March is now the front month debt futures) hit the daily high of 117 24/32 at 19:53 ET and then sank, with two moderate contra-rallies, until they hit a bottom of 116 11/32 (-1 3/32) at 9:41 ET.
ESZs traded positively but within a 5-handle range from the Nikkei opening until they rallied modestly during the final hour of Nikkei trading. The rally ended quickly; ESZs traded sideways until they sank at 3:34 ET. After hitting a low of 4558.50 at 3:51 ET, ESZs steadily rallied until they hit a daily high of 4578.25 at 8:45 ET. ESZs then sank to a daily low of 4544.75 at 13:31 ET.
While ESZs sank, the DJIA and DJIA sported triple-digit gains. The divergence is due to Salesforce 8% (on a 5 cent beat!) and selling in Fangs. The Nasdaq 100 was -0.984% at noon ET; Meta was -2.8% at the time. Nvidia fell as much as 3.55%. Google hit -3.5% at 13:30 ET.
Yellen: Still More Work to Do on Inflation, Economic Issues – BBG 13:04 ET Yellen: US Recovery Settling over Time into Sustainable Growth – BBG 13:04 ET Yellen: Good Chance Unemployment Stabilizes Near Current Level – BBG 13:10 ET Yellen (warns Fed): Fed Need Not Trigger Recession to Quell Inflation – BBG 13:10 ET
Near 14:00 ET, November performance gaming intensified. ESZs soared to 4563.25 at 14:59 ET. ESZs then sank to 4550.00 at 15:26 ET. The final manipulation pushed ESZs to 4579.50 at 15:59 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA and DJIA rallied sharply; a blatant late ESZ manipulation appeared (Where is the SEC?) The S&P 500 rallied 8.9% in November, the biggest monthly gain since July 2022
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and Fangs declined sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much did the historic November rally appropriate from the usual December rally?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4558.31 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4569.89; 4537.24
America Is a Heartbeat Away From a War It Could Lose Global war is neither a theoretical contingency nor the fever dream of hawks and militarists. As Russia mobilizes for a long war in Ukraine and a new front opens in the Levant, the temptation will grow for a rapidly arming China to make a move on Taiwan… In the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the United States would be hard-pressed to rebuff the attack while keeping up the flow of support to Ukraine and Israel. This isn’t because the United States is in decline. It’s because unlike the United States, which needs to be strong in all three of these places, each of its adversaries—China, Russia, and Iran—only has to be strong in its own home region to achieve its objectives… It’s obvious that Washington will have to increase defense spending… (Inflationary!) https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/16/us-russia-china-gaza-ukraine-world-war-defense-security-strategy/
@gaza_report: Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar in his first publicized statements since launching Al Aqsa Floods campaign: “The leaders of the Occupation should know, October 7th was just a rehearsal.”
@DrEliDavid: Two released Israeli children hostages were “marked” by Hamas, so that if they flee, they would be identified. This was done by intentionally burning their legs to leave marks…
Bloomberg @business: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he told Israeli leaders they must not repeat the scale of destruction and displacement inflicted on the northern Gaza Strip as they prepare a new push to eradicate Hamas. (Team Obama scolds Israel again. They are loath to scold Iran.)
Top Obama aide hits Biden admin’s support of Israel’s war in Gaza as violation of international laws – In an opinion piece, titled “Henry Kissinger, the Hypocrite,” published after the German-born American diplomat, academic and presidential adviser, died at the age of 100 on Wednesday, (Ben) Rhodes took the opportunity to bash the current presidential administration for its support of Israel in its fight against Hamas following the October 7 terrorist attack on the country… https://www.foxnews.com/media/top-obama-aide-hits-biden-admins-support-israels-war-gaza-violation-international-laws
Ben Rhodes was one of the main architects of Obama’s Iran scheme and a self-admitted deceiver.
Obama official says he pushed a ‘narrative’ to media to sell the Iran nuclear deal May 6, 2016 Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, told the New York Times magazine that he helped promote a “narrative” that the administration started negotiations with Iran after the supposedly moderate Hassan Rouhani was elected president in 2013. In fact, the administration’s negotiations actually began earlier, with the country’s powerful Islamic faction, and the framework for an agreement was hammered out before Rouhani’s election… “All these newspapers used to have foreign bureaus,” he said. “Now they don’t. They call us to explain to them what’s happening in Moscow and Cairo. Most of the outlets are reporting on world events from Washington. The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns. That’s a sea change. They literally know nothing.”… (Rhodes admits that he used MSM reporters because they are inexperienced no nothings.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/obama-official-says-he-pushed-a-narrative-to-media-to-sell-the-iran-nuclear-deal/2016/05/06/5b90d984-13a1-11e6-8967-7ac733c56f12_story.html
“Tattaglia is a pimp… It was Barzini all along.” – The Godfather (Substitute ‘Biden’ and ‘Obama) NYT: Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago – A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the attack in detail. Israeli officials dismissed it as aspirational and ignored specific warnings. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
Buffett’s company says a billionaire family offered bribes to inflate earnings at a truck stop chain The Berkshire claim in a counter lawsuit filed this week comes after the Haslam family — which includes Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam and former Tennessee governor Bill Haslam — accused Berkshire of trying to understate Pilot’s earnings this year by changing its accounting practices… https://apnews.com/article/buffett-berkshire-hathaway-haslam-pilot-truck-stops-48d768eb679661ce806c52d81bf08140
Today – Sentiment is extraordinarily bullish. So, traders will eager play for the Friday and Start-of-December Rallies. Stocks are breaking out to the upside. The usual suspects, barring unexpected ugly news, will remain gaga over equities at least until the FOMC Meeting on December 13.
ESZs are -4.25; USZs are +11/32; and February Gold is +5.40 at 20:15 ET.
Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.5, Nov ISM Mfg. 47.8, Prices Paid 46.1; Oct Construction Spending 0.3% m/m; Nov Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.5m; Fed VCEO for Supervision Barr 3 ET; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10 ET, Powell 11:00 ET holds ‘Fireside Chat’; Powell 14:00 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4354; 100-day MA: 4419; 150-day MA: 4367; 200-day MA: 4284 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,964; 100-day MA: 34,414; 150-day MA: 34,167; 200-day MA: 33,892 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4229.80 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4473.52 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative– a close above 4570.90 triggers a buy signal
GOP @SenTomCotton: Democrats Break Judiciary Committee Rules to Target Private Citizens, Now Will Face Consequences – Democrats have thrown a hissy fit for years that the Supreme Court has a center-right majority, after decades of believing that the Court “belonged” to the Left. Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, and Sheldon Whitehouse have led the charge, threatening justices by name and trying to delegitimize the Court. In particular, Whitehouse has a weird obsession with a couple Justices (one of his many weird obsessions). He demanded subpoenas to private citizens as a fishing expedition against these Justices. Many Judiciary Democrats secretly oppose the subpoenas? So why did they vote for them? Here’s where it get interesting. Dick Durbin is the Judiciary chairman, but he’s scared Whitehouse will challenge him for the position next year. He agreed to pursue the subpoenas to placate Whitehouse… Now that Durbin opened the pandora’s box of harassing private citizens with subpoenas, believe me, Democrats: what goes around, comes around. As McConnell once said (On Dems changing judicial confirmation voting), they’re going to regret this, and they may regret it a lot sooner than they think.
House Rep. Reveals ‘At Least 200’ Undercover Fed Operatives Set Up Trump Trap on January 6 According to U.S. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA), there were “at least 200” undercover federal agents among the crowd on January 6. The lawmaker further stated that some of the operatives were “dressed as Trump supporters” and were inside the Capitol prior to the breach… “And when you track the text threads and the communications within those groups and find the origins of suggestions of potential violence or an active occupation of the Capitol on January 6th, you’ll find that those messages were led by members of the groups that ended up to be the FBI agents that had infiltrated the group,” Higgins said. “So the FBI’s involvement was deep, not just on J6, but on the days and weeks and months prior.”… https://thepoliticsbrief.com/house-rep-reveals-at-least-200-undercover-feds-set-up-trump-trap-on-january-6/
@DC_Draino: Wonder why the J6 Committee never showed this video? Watch as police throw 3 concussion grenades into a peaceful crowd. The man at the end says everything was peaceful until police did this. I’ve never seen cops throw flashbangs into peaceful crowds. https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1730347803132477762
@GOPoversight: In a 2018 email, a bank flagged serious concerns about the China money Hunter Biden received – $40,000 of which ultimately landed in Joe Biden’s bank account. In the email, the bank’s money laundering investigator highlighted: Erratic Payments; No Obvious Services Rendered; No Current Business Purpose; Known China Strategy to Target the Children of Politicians and Purchase Political Influence through Sweetheart Deals The investigator ends the email by saying the erratic bank activity “may require re-evaluation of relationship with the customer.” https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/1729983592648855652
Top GOP senators slam Biden admin for ‘hidden’ plans on federal get-out-the-vote efforts In a letter sent Tuesday by Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., and co-signed by top leadership, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the group of 23 senators admonished President Biden for his administration’s “failure to respond” to their inquiries about Executive Order 14019 on “Promoting Access to Voting.”…https://t.co/BP6q15bGwJ
Bloomberg Next China (@next_china): Henry Kissinger, the child refugee who rose to become US secretary of state and defined American foreign policy during the 1970s with his strategies to end the Vietnam War and contain communist countries, has died. He was 100.
LeBron James’ manager Maverick Carter admitted to illegal bets on NBA games, records showhttps://trib.al/EaJ2TC3
Joe Biden, and other top swamp creatures in the loop, knows full well his real approval numbers are 9% or less. Biden can’t make anyone happy on the economy, Ukraine, Hamas/Israel war, the southern border, the CV19 vax and just about any other issue with “We the People.” The elite and Barack Obama love the dumbed down, meat puppet they installed, and they love what is going on. Bidenomics and disaster political policies make them richer and might give them more control. 
There is some hope, and that comes in the form of the Deep State controllers are clearly losing control of the narrative. They are so desperate to kill free speech that counters their destructive narrative they are trying to frame Elon Musk as a Jew-hating anti-Semite. That is yet another total lie told by the Left. This lie is being propelled by the Lying Legacy Media (LLM) in hopes of destroying the advertising dollars going into X, and therefore, they are hoping to kill the company. This is why Elon Musk told advertisers trying to blackmail him to go “F##k” themselves. It’s all part of the plan to stop the flow of money going to X and destroy a huge free speech platform the evil Deep State globalists no longer control. This action reveals how weak the Deep State and the Obama/Biden Administration really are. It’s going to be a rough 2024 for everyone including the Deep State.
The economic warning signs keep flashing bright red. Two big warning signs on the road to financial perdition are China and other central banks continuing to buy physical gold at record amounts. The other big warning sign comes in the form of countries shunning US Treasury debt. This makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to finance our exploding debt. What could go wrong?
There is much more in the 41-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 12.01.23.
Journalist/author Alex Neman will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Newman is an expert on the evil Deep State and has written a new book on the education system that wants to control and kill your kids.
harveyorganblog.com 
