DEC 13/GOLD CLOSED UP $47.35 TO $2029.50 //SILVER CLOSED UP $1.39 TO $24.06 POST FED GOVERNOR POWELL’S “POW-WOW”//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $41.75 TO $961.90 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $145.95 TO $1111.90//IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM PETER SCHIFF AND JAMES RICKARDS//ECB AND UK HOLD RATES STEADY BUT INDICATE LOWER RATES COMING SOMETIME IN THE NEW YEAR AS GROWTH RATES ARE FALTERING//DENMARK, HOLLAND AND GERMANY ISSUE WARNINGS OF AN ISLAMIST ATTACK AND THEY ARREST SOME SUSPECTS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES: 70 MORE TERRORISTS SURRENDER//YEMEN HOUTHIS ATTACK MAJOR VESSELS INCLUDING MAERSK WHILE BIDEN STILL IDOLIZES IRAN//RETAIL SALES UP//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 2 323 C HSBC 7 323 H HSBC 500 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 191 365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1 2 365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 165 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11 661 C JP MORGAN 325 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 5 690 C ABN AMRO 8 46 700 C UBS 65 11 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 20 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 79 905 C ADM 5 991 H CME 101
TOTAL: 774 774 MONTH TO DATE: 13,410
JPMorgan stopped 325/774 contracts.
FOR DEC.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2023. CONTRACT: 774 NOTICES FOR 77400 OZ or 2.4075 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,410 contracts for 1,341,000 oz (41.710 tonnes)
FOR DEC:
SILVER NOTICES 156 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 780,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2943 for 14.716,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $3.95//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.470 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 320 CONTRACTS TO 133,961 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (WITH SOME SHORT COVERING) AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC 1886 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1886 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.05), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1587 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC SIZED 1907 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 18.755 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 200 CONTRACTS OF EX. FOR RISK FOR 1.00 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //NEW TOTAL STANDING 18.325 MILLION OZ.+1.0 MILLION OZ (EX. FOR RISK TODAY) + 4.5 MILLION EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR= NEW TOTAL OF 23.825 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 23.825 MILLION OZ
//FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1886 CONTRACTS)/
200 CONTRACT EX.FOR RISK =1.00 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL FOR EX. FOR RISK + 5.5 MILLION OZ.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 366 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 8403 contracts: OR 42.015 MILLION OZ (840 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 42.015 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 42.015 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S FOR THIS MONTH.
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 320CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1907 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC. OF 18.755 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW TOTAL STANDING 18.325 MILLION OZ//+1.0 0 MILLION EX. FOR RISK TODAY + 4.5 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 23.825 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING 23.825 million OZ /// WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1953OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 1886CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1886) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 156 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 780,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6186 CONTRACTS TO 476,125 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -removed 473 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 6186 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $3.95 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LIGHT INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC.. AT 44.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR RISK CONTRACTS // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR DEC SO FAR INCREASES TO 47.263 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.95 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9459 OI CONTRACTS (29.421)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3273CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 476,125
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9459 CONTRACTS WITH 6186 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3273EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9932 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.0 TONNES/EX FOR RISK PRIOR = 4.634 TOTAL EX. FOR RISK TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 42.631 TONNES + 4.634 TONNES= 47.265 TONNES.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GIGANTIC 4977 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3273 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6186) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9459 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 44.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 4.634 TONNES EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW STANDING 47.265 TONNES / / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH LITTLE SHORT LIQUIDATION 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4977 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 43,553 CONTRACTS OR 4,355,300 OZ OR 135.46TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4355 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 135.46 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 135.46/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 135.46 TONNES. THIS MONTH MAY TURN INTO A WHOPPER OF E.F.P. ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF DEC. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 320CONTRACTS OI TO 133,961 AND FURTHER FROM COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1907 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 1907 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1907 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 320 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1907 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1587 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 7.935 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.77 PTS OR 0.33% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 173.44 PTS OR 1.07% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 240.10 PTS OR 0.73% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.74 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1336 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1367 /Oil UP TO 70.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.65/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6184 CONTRACTS TO 476,125 WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.90 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE SESSION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3273 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 3273 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3273CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9459 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3273LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6186 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.90//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE SIZED 4977 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//.
// WE HAVE A LIGHT AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (47.265 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 42.631 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 47.265 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $3.90) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF9459 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 29.421 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (44.914 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (FOR 0.9580 TONNES)//NEW TOTAL STANDING FALLS TO 42.631 + 4.634 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK : NEW TOTAL 47.265 TONNES../ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.90
WE HAD -removed 473 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9459 CONTRACTS OR 945,900 OZ OR 29.421 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,410 notices 1,341,000 oz 41.710 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
customer deposits: 0
we had 0 customer withdrawals
Adjustments; 1 CUSTOMER TO DEALER /MANFRA 6472.237 OZ
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 1070 contracts having GAINED 291 contracts. .We had 17
contracts served upon WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED or an additional 308 CONTRACTS OR 30,800 OZ (0.9580 tonnes) will stand for delivery at the comex
JAN. GAINED 283 contracts RISING TO 3421 contracts.
FEB GAINED 2695 CONTRACTS RISING TO 371,962
We had 774 contracts filed for today representing 77,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 774 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 325 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,410 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1070 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 774 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,370,600 OZ OR 42.631 TONNES + 4.634 TONNES EX. FOR RISK ISSUED/PRIOR/ (FOR DELIVERY HERE) = 47.265 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC.contract month: No of notices filed so far (13,410) x 100 oz + (1070) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (774) x 100 oz) which equals 1,370,600 oz standing OR 42.631 TONNES + 4.634 tonnes of ex. for risk = 47.265 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC: 47.265 TONNES WHICH IS LIGHT FOR THE BIGGEST ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. THEY PROBABLY KNOW THAT NO REAL GOLD IS PRESENT AT THE COMEX.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 20,074,059.747 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,269,624.029 (319.438 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,804,435.773 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,710,275 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 270,92 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 14
//2023// THE DEC 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
3003.500 oz BRINKS
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
612M048.300 OZ ASAJHI
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
5136.100oz ASAHI
No of oz served today (contracts)
156 CONTRACT(S) (780,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
722 contracts (3,610,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2943 Contracts (14,715,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
I) into ASAHI 612,048.300 oz
total dealer deposit: 612,048.300 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
Customer deposits: 1
i) Into ASAHI: 5136.100 oz
total customer deposits: 5136.100 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 133.1390 million oz/268.519 million or 49.53%
Comex withdrawals 1
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) out of Brinks 3003.500 oz
total withdrawals: 3003.500 oz
Adjustments; 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 45.498 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 268.529 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2023 OI: 878 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 85 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 119 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 34 CONTRACTS OR 170,000 OZ WERE
QUEUE JUMPED TAKING DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
JAN LOST 52 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1846 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 45 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 325
MARCH LOST 440 CONTRACTS TO 111,728 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 156 for 780,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 96,383// huge
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 85,908 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2943 x 5,000 oz = 14,715,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (878) and the number of notices served upon today 156 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 2943 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC. (878) – number of notices served upon today (156 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month equates to 18.325 MILLION OZ. to which we add 1 million oz of exchange for risk today and then add prior exchange for risk of 4.5 million oz//for a total of 5.5 millionoz. New total standing: 23.825 million oz.
There are 45.512 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
DEC11/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $30,80 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // A WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.12 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.82 TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $32.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.51 TONNES
NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.53 TONNES
NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNE
NOV 27/WITH GOLD UP $9,85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $16.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.15 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 877.96 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
DEC 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.648 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.7333 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.395 MILLION OZ
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.923 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.128 MILLION OZ
NOV 30/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.122 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 27/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,008,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 24/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.181 MILLION OZ
NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 437,104 MILLION OZ
NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 778,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.768 MILLION OZ
NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .733 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.470 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: Joe Biden Doesn’t Have Anything To Take Credit For
Most mainstream pundits characterized the November jobs report as a “Goldilocks” report. Job growth was strong enough to support the “soft landing” narrative but not so strong it might scare the Fed into raising interest rates again.
President Joe Biden used the report to boast about his economic achievements. But according to Peter Schiff, Biden doesn’t have anything to boast about. He talked about it during a recent interview on the Capitol Report on NTD News.
After the jobs report came out, Biden released a statement bragging, “On my watch, we have achieved better growth and lower inflation than any other advanced country. A year ago, forecasters said it couldn’t be done.”
As far as Biden taking credit for the strong economy, Peter said he doesn’t think there is anything for the president to take credit for.
First of all, the job numbers – sure, it was better than expected. But we’ll probably end up revising it to ‘worse than expected’ next month. That’s pretty much what they do. They come out with a number and then the following month they revise it lower.”
Peter pointed out that 24% of the “new jobs” were striking auto workers and motion picture workers going back to jobs they already had.
That’s not really job creation.”
And 82% of the remaining jobs created were in the government and healthcare sectors.
These are not the productive jobs that are producing goods that we need, that we can consume, that we can export. And all these government workers have to be paid for by the private sector. That means the government has to run even bigger deficits. That means they have to create more inflation to pay their salaries. That puts more upward pressure on prices. I don’t think we have a strong labor market.”
Meanwhile, the economy is creating a lot of part-time, low-wage jobs.
People are taking second and third jobs because the economy is so weak that you can’t get by on one job anymore. So, most people need multiple jobs.”
The NTD anchor noted that gold hit a record high prior to the jobs report. What does that say about the state of the economy?
Peter said he thinks if people understood how bad things really are, and how much worse it will likely get, they would be buying even more gold. For one thing, despite Biden bragging about “lower inflation” Peter said it’s a huge problem that’s going to get worse.
The talk of the Fed successfully returning inflation to 2% — that’s all talk. It’s not going to happen. The genie is out of the bottle. There’s no putting it back in.”
Peter said in the meantime, we’re heading toward a severe recession.
I think we’re going to have a worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008. In fact, we’d already be in it if it wasn’t for the bailouts of the banks earlier in the year, back in March. But that has a short shelf-life. I think the problems underlying the banking system are building. The entire banking system is insolvent based on more than 10 years of zero percent rates. They’ve loaded up on long-term, low-yielding bonds. They’re underwater in those positions. Meanwhile, I think the real economy is weakening. The deficits are skyrocketing.”
And as the national debt surges upward, the interest expense on the debt is rising. Interest expense rose by 23% to $879 billion in fiscal 2023.
This is a fiscal time bomb that’s going to blow, and I think people would be buying more gold if they understood how short this fuse was.”
At least that’s what you would think if you listen to government officials and talking heads in the financial media.
So, how is this victory over inflation working out for the average person?
Not so great.
Based on official CPI data, price inflation has cooled somewhat, although it remains far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. That hasn’t stopped President Biden and most of the mainstream financial media from declaring victory over rising prices. Biden even suggested that companies should start cutting prices since inflation is falling.
It’s important to remember that even if we believe the government numbers and price inflation is cooling, that doesn’t mean consumers are getting any relief.
Prices are not falling. They’re just going up slower than they were six months ago.
In other words, we’re all still coping with much higher prices no matter what the latest CPI report says. And the suffering is far worse than sterile BLS reports indicate.
This becomes clear when we go out in the real world and stop listening to news people spouting government numbers.
Ironically, we can learn more about the actual impact of inflation from the movie Home Alone than we can from some guy on CNBC droning on and on about the CPI.
In this 1990 classic, 8-year-old Kevin McCallister’s family went on a holiday trip to Paris and accidentally left him alone in his house. Chaos ensues.
You may recall that after realizing he’s alone, Kevin makes a trip to the grocery store. After all, a kid has to eat.
Kevin bought a basket full of groceries including a half-gallon of milk, orange juice, Wonder Bread, a Stouffer’s frozen turkey dinner, toilet paper, Snuggle dryer sheets, Tide liquid laundry detergent, plastic wrap, Kraft macaroni and cheese, and a bag of army men. He paid a grand total of $19.83 with a $1 off coupon for the orange juice.
In 2022, that same basket of groceries would have cost around $44.40 based on a shopping trip by a West Virginia mother.
That’s a 123.9% increase. (Keep in mind prices vary somewhat depending on the store and location.)
This year, Kevin would have to fork out a whopping $72.28 for his provisions at a Chicago store. That’s another 62.8% increase in just one year. Since 1990, the price of Kevin’s groceries has gone up over 264%.
So much for that 3.1% CPI.
This just goes to show that real-life price inflation is far worse than the official numbers indicate.
I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed when the dollar price retreats.
Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time.
This is true whether inflation or deflation prevails.
The key for investors is to stay focused on the long-term attributes of gold and not get caught up in day-to-day price moves. The dollar price of gold is volatile, but that’s not significant.
There’s no reason why your investment outlook needs to be volatile too.
That said, it’s worth looking at the long-term prospects for the dollar price of gold. If we’re not going to sweat the short run, we should care about the long run.
I have frequently forecast that gold will reach $15,000 per ounce by 2026 or sooner. That’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.
There’s never a guarantee that a particular outcome will prevail, but this gold price forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
This is a good time to explain exactly how that $15,000 price forecast emerges.
Lessons From Two Prior Bull Markets
For a technical model, we turn to the two prior bull markets in gold and compare those to the performance of the current bull market.
The first bull market in gold ran from August 1971 to January 1980.
The dollar price of gold rallied from $35 per ounce to $800 per ounce. That’s a 2,200% gain in 9.4 years.
The second bull market in gold ran from August 1999 to August 2011.
The dollar price of gold rallied from $250 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce. That’s a 670% gain in 12 years.
Of course, the period after 1980 was a long bear market that lasted 19 years and saw the dollar price of gold drop 68%. The period from August 2011 to December 2015 was another bear market lasting 4.3 years that saw the dollar price of gold drop 45%.
I’m not ignoring those. It’s simply the case that we’re in a new gold bull market now, so prior bull market behavior is the right reference frame for predictive analytics.
Another question is why do I begin my bull/bear market analysis in 1971? Gold has been money throughout the history of civilization and has been minted in the form of gold coins since at least the sixth century BC.
The answer is that prior to 1971 either gold was money (in which case there is no other “money” to compare it to; gold was valued by weight, not exchange rates), or the world was on a gold standard in which the money price of gold was fixed (albeit with suspensions of convertibility during wars and periodic breaks due to devaluations).
In a world in which gold is money’s or gold’s value is fixed by law, there are no bull or bear markets, although there can be inflation or deflation.
The Third Bull Market
The third bull market in gold began on Dec. 16, 2015, with gold hitting a bottom of $1,050 per ounce at the end of the prior bear market. Since then, gold has rallied to about $2,000 per ounce as of today, a 90% gain.
If we take a simple average of the price gains and durations of the two prior bull markets in gold, we arrive at a 1,435% gain over a period of 10.7 years.
Applying that gain and duration to a baseline of $1,050 per ounce beginning in December 2015 leads to a gains projection for this bull market of $15,070 per ounce by August 2026.
Source: Bloomberg
There’s nothing deterministic about this model. Actual gains could run ahead of this projection both in time and by amount. Conversely, the bull market could end at any time for a wide variety of reasons.
The prior bull market gains could be annualized to produce a slightly lower average gain per year. Still, the bull market assumptions are moderate since we’ve taken a simple average and not stretched for the higher gain or the shorter duration of the two.
Again, using the history of gold bull markets as a guide, a dollar price of gold of $15,000 per ounce in the next three years is not a stretch.
The Road to $15,000
Finally, a bit of elementary math is helpful in understanding how the dollar price of gold can move to $15,000 per ounce in the next three years. For this purpose, we’ll assume a baseline price of $2,000 per ounce, essentially where gold is today.
A move from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. That’s a 50% increase and could easily take a year or more. Beyond that, a further increase from $3,000 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce is a 33% increase, another large rally. A further gain from $4,000 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a further gain of 25%.
But notice the pattern. Each gain is $1,000 per ounce, but the percentage increase drops from 50% to 33% to 25%. That’s because the starting point is higher while the $1,000 gain is constant. Each $1,000 jump represents a smaller (and easier) percentage gain than the one before.
This pattern continues. Moving from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. Moving from $14,000 per ounce to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% gain. Gold can move 1% in a single trading day, sometimes 2% or more.
At progressively higher prices, we see the same $1,000 gain (it’s real money to you), but the percentage increase is smaller, and the hurdle is therefore lower. As an extreme example, a move from $99,000 per ounce to $100,000 per ounce is about a 1% move; all in a day’s work. Those $1,000 per ounce pops keep getting easier.
In addition, basic supply and demand also support the forecast of higher prices albeit with less specificity.
The lesson for investors is to buy gold now. I recommend checking out my partners at Hard Assets Alliance for all your gold buying needs. It’s a great and easy online experience.
Remember, you’ll get more gold for your money at the outset and high percentage returns as gold rallies from a lower base. Toward the end of the long march to $15,000 per ounce, you’ll have bigger dollar gains because you started with more gold.
Others will jump on the bandwagon, but you’ll already have a comfortable seat.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Quite a letter!1
Rep. Mooney asks about repatriation of foreign gold from New York Fed
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-12-14 15:36 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho Thursday, December 14, 2023
WASHINGTON — As central banks across the globe continue to scoop up gold bullion for their reserves at record rates, U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, is asking Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell some pressing questions about gold.
Gold currently trades at all-time highs in most currencies. Market insiders claim that Germany’s Bundesbank is again seeking to repatriate some of its gold vaulted with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Fed recently refused to respond to inquiries from the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee about whether any foreign gold had been repatriated this year.
In 2013 the Bundesbank asked the New York Fed to return 300 tonnes of its gold but the bank inexplicably took more than three years to fulfill the request.
This incident raised the doubts about the status and security of foreign gold vaulted with the New York Fed, since Germany’s gold had been assumed to be held unencumbered and in a segregated area within the Fed’s vault.
This week Representative Mooney wrote to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell as follows. …
World Could Be At The “Foothills Of The Next Copper Cycle”
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 06:55 AM
The world is sliding into a copper deficit over the next couple of years as one of the world’s largest copper mines was forced to shutter operations while demand for the refined metal remains elevated due to renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles demand.
Warnings of a copper squeeze come as the Panamanian government recently closed First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s $10 billion Cobre Panama copper mine, which produces 400,000 tons of copper annually and is considered one of the largest copper mines in the world. This decision emerged after protests and political disputes, culminating in the nation’s Supreme Court canceling the mine’s operating license.
The supply forecast faced further complications with unexpected news from Anglo American Plc last Friday. The miner downgraded copper production forecasts for its operations in South America for the next two years.
Anglo slashed its copper production target for 2024 by 200,000 tons. The forecast noted production levels will drop through 2025. The decline in production is equivalent to a large mine going offline.
Bloomberg pointed out the unexpected removal of 600,000 tons of copper production from First Quantum and Anglo American “would move the market from a large expected surplus into balance, or even a deficit,” adding, It’s also a major warning for the future: copper is an essential metal needed to decarbonize the global economy, which means mining companies will play a key role in facilitating the shift to green energy.”
In June, billionaire mining investor Robert Friedland explained to Bloomberg TV in an interview that copper prices are set to soar because the mining industry is failing to increase supply ahead of ‘accelerating demand.’ He warned:
“We’re heading for a train wreck here.”
Friedland is the founder of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. He continued, “My fear is that when push finally comes to shove,” copper prices might explode ten times.
BMO Capital Markets told clients the refined copper market will likely experience a small deficit next year. Clients of Goldman Sachs have been presented with bullish ideas on the refined metal due to tightening supplies.
“The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening,” Goldman’s Nicholas Snowdon said.
Also, Jefferies’ commodity desk is another expecting a deficit next year.
“Disruptions have significantly increased, and a market deficit is now increasingly likely,” said Jefferies. “We could be at the foothills of the next copper cycle.”
Just a few months ago, the International Copper Study Group forecasted a 467,000-ton glut in global copper markets next year.
Shortage fears come even as China is locked in a vicious property market downturn. Demand for the refined metal continues as the energy reset transition is expected to accelerate.
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1336
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1367
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.77 PTS OR 0.33%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 173.44 PTS OR 1.07%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 240.10 PTS OR 0.73%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.95 EURO RISES TO 1.0928 UP 45 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.672 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 141.22/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.0785***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.803** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.064…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.282
3j Gold at $2037.80 silver at: 24.12 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 28 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.73//
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141,72// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.672% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8685 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9490 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.942 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.114 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.340 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.00…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 5 BASIS PTS AT 3.7823
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge.
Santa Powell Unleashes Global “Buy Everything” Frenzy As Dollar, Yields Tumble
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 08:08 AM
Virtually every risk asset across the globe is rallying this morning, as the dollar and interest rates get whacked after the Fed unexpectedly signaled a much more dovish outlook including more than expected interest-rate cuts next year, unleashing bullish euphoria across markets amid optimism that inflation pressures are easing. After the Dow already tipped into record territory yesterday, on Thursday it was tech’s turn – Nasdaq 100 futures climbed, setting up the index for a run at a record close; meanwhile S&P 500 contracts edged 0.3% higher after the benchmark ended within 2% of its record high on Wednesday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index surged as much as 1.7%. Shares in Germany and France hit fresh all-time peaks. Bond yields are lower with the bulk of the curve seeing a bull steepening and the 10Y now well below 4% (3.94% last). The USD sell-off continues which in turn is helping to boost commodities where Energy is leading and $70 is now acting as support for WTI. The macro data focus is on Retail Sales and Jobless Claims: given the upside surprise delivered by the Fed, this data may not be market-moving but remain useful for understanding whether the growth without inflation hypothesis remains intact.
In premarket trading, Adobe shares are down 6.1% after the software company gave a full-year forecast that is weaker than expected on key metrics. Separately, it also disclosed that the US FTC has been investigating the company’s subscription cancellation practices for more than a year. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
AerSale shares fall 11% after the company announced a secondary offering of 4 million shares.
AngloGold Ashanti shares rise 6.0% in New York as South African precious-metals shares rally. Gold gained after the Federal Reserve gave the clearest signal yet that its aggressive interest-rate tightening campaign has ended. Pro
Pagaya Technologies shares rise 6.5% as Jefferies initiates coverage on the fintech company’s stock with a recommendation of buy. The broker notes that the firm’s business model creates “a powerful network effect.
According to JPM strategists, the market narrative has shifted forcefully to soft landing which may be supported by upcoming Fedspeak and reflected in the yield curve, with JPM saying that we now “wait and see if the SPX can breach 4,800 before year-end.” The risk-on rush follows a pivot to looser policy by the Fed, which held rates steady Wednesday and forecast that their next moves would be lower. Policymakers’ projections in the “dot plot” showed 75 basis points of reductions in 2024, but traders are even more optimistic, betting on cuts of twice that magnitude.
“There’s been a lot of debate in recent weeks about whether investors are getting ahead of themselves, too optimistic about how quickly the Fed will cut rates — but the message from the central bank is that is not the case,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Indeed, some strategists are wary that much of the latest upswing in equities has been powered by the more speculative corners of the market — ranging from unprofitable tech stocks, to regional US banks and battered Swedish real estate. There are warnings that the exuberance might have gone too far. “We’ve seen something of an everything rally and for some parts of the market, the fundamentals don’t really support that,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Valuations and technicals also suggest stocks are vulnerable to a pullback in the short-term. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have seen their relative strength indicator — a 0-100 gauge of bullish and bearish price momentum — soar into overbought territory, typically seen as a signal that a decline is imminent. And equties could remain at risk in the event of a downturn, said Joost van Leenders, senior investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen. “Whether rate cuts are positive for equities depends on the economy,” he said. “In a soft landing a pivot would be positive. But when the economy slips into recession, rate cuts traditionally don’t prevent a selloff in equities.”
* * *
In contrast with the Fed, the Bank of England said Thursday that “there is still some way to go” in the fight to control inflation, keeping interest rates at the highest level in 15 years. The pound strengthened and UK government bonds pared their gains after the decision. A rates decision from the European Central Bank is up next on a busy day for policymakers in the region.
Data readings on US retail sales and initial jobless claims due later Thursday will provide an early test of the buoyant mood among investors. Traders would be concerned by any surprises in the data that cloud the view that the surge in inflation has been contained without a significant cost to employment.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 erupted another 1.6%, pushing stocks to fresh 2023 highs. European real estate stocks soared while Swedish property shares also got a boost from inflation data in the country. The Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index rose as much as 6.5%, to the highest intraday since Feb., leading gains on the broader benchmark. Swedish property stocks including Fabege, Balder and Sagax were some of the top performers, getting a further boost after data showed that Sweden’s core inflation rate declined more than expected in November, increasing the possibility of interest-rate cuts. UK homebuilders — which are not part of the real estate index — also gained, with Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey both up at least 4%. Here are the top European movers:
Universal Music Group gains as much as 2.5%, rising to the highest in two years, after it was raised to buy at Citi, which said the entertainment company’s growth potential is “undervalued.”
Vivendi shares gain as much as 12% after the media conglomerate said it’s exploring splitting up into “several entities,” each of which would be listed publicly.
RWE, Enel and SSE rise as JPMorgan names them as top picks, while renewables outperform broadly on the prospect of interest rate cuts next year. Beaten-down renewable energy stocks should re-rate in 2024, JPMorgan predicts.
European real estate stocks jumped after the Fed signaled a series of interest rate cuts next year, while Swedish property shares also got a boost from inflation data in the country.
Entain rises as much as 8.1% after Corvex bought a stake representing about 4.4% of the gambling company’s outstanding shares, according to a statement.
AMS-Osram soars as much as 13%, one of the best performers on the Stoxx Europe 600, after it was upgraded to buy at Jefferies, following the recent rights issue and debt raise. The broker cites a healthy balance sheet and an industry upcycle ahead.
Brunello Cucinelli gains as much as 7.7% after the Italian luxury goods company highlighted strong sales over recent months and “excellent” order intake for its SS24 collections. There could be scope for margin upside, analysts at Deutsche Bank said.
Gold mining stocks including Fresnillo and Centamin follow the price of gold higher after the US Federal Reserve signaled its tightening campaign has ended.
Corbion shares rise as much as 6.5% after Inclusive Capital Partners Founder Jeffrey Ubben urged the company to seek strategic alternatives given the “malaise, concern, and apathy” among its public shareholders, according to statement.
Italian banks such as BPER Banca, Unicredit and Banco BPM and Spanish lenders including Sabadell and Caixabank decline after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and forecast a series of cuts next year.
LPP shares drop as much as 5.4%, the most since September, after Poland’s biggest fashion retailer cut its FY2023/24 sales target. Erste called the outlook conservative, which could dampen sentiment to the stock.
MorphoSys shares slide 4.6%, paring an earlier 9.6% drop%, after the German biotech firm sold €102.7 million of stock to support its pipeline development, strengthen its finances and for general corporate purposes.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose to a three-month high after the Federal Reserve greenlighted interest-rate cuts for next year, reigniting a bullish pulse across markets as inflation eases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.6%, with AIA Group, Samsung and TSMC among the biggest boosts. Key gauges rose more than 1% in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia. Japanese equities fell as the yen strengthened, with investors eying an eventual end to the nation’s negative rates.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially positive with the former underpinned after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while gains in the mainland were limited following the latest Chinese loans and aggregate financing data which missed estimates.
Australia’s ASX 200 was lifted with gains led by the rate-sensitive sectors after a fall in yields and with participants also digesting the latest jobs data which showed a much larger-than-expected increase in headline employment change.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and was initially boosted at the open but then failed to sustain the 33,000 level and wiped out all its gains amid selling in the banking sector and headwinds from a stronger currency.
Stocks in India rallied to a new peak on Thursday, tracking gains across global markets after the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of rate cuts next year. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 1.2% to 70,433 as of 10:16 a.m. Mumbai time, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1%. The gauges still trailed MSCI’s gauge of Asian stocks which rose as much as 1.7%, its biggest gain in a month.
In FX, the dollar dropped to a four-month low, continuing its losses from Wednesday. The yen climbed by more than 1%, with the Bank of Japan tipped to be a policy outlier by scrapping the world’s last negative interest rate. The Norwegian krone sits atop the G-10 intraday rankings, rising 2% versus the greenback after the Norges Bank surprised most economists with a 25bp hike. The Swiss franc is up 0.1% after the Swiss National Bank stood pat on rates and dropped a reference to selling foreign currency.
In rates, treasuries extended the sharp rally that followed the Fed meeting, with the 10-year yield falling below 4% for the first time since August, and trading at 3.94% at last check. Yields on the policy-sensitive two-year note fell 11 basis dropping as low as 4.28% into the rally; US 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are steeper by 4bp and 5bp on the day. Traders are pricing in 161bps and 125bps of rate cuts by the end of 2024 for the ECB and BOE respectively, ahead of policy announcements at 7am (BOE) and 8:15am (ECB) New York time. Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far; most syndicate desks are of the view that primary market sales are finished for 2023; no deals were priced Wednesday ahead of the Fed.
In commodities, oil advanced from a five-month Thursday low on positive demand signals including a drop in US inventories and the potential for rate cuts by the Fed. Spot gold adds 0.3%, trading just shy of $2,040 as the global liquidity spigots are about to go full blast again.
Looking to the day ahead now, US economic data includes November retail sales, import/export price index and initial jobless claims (8:30am) and October business inventories (10am). Fed members speaker scheduled empty until Dec. 19 with Bostic speaking on the economy and business outlook at the Harvard Business School Club of Atlanta Alumni Leadership Lunch.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,716.50
MXAP up 1.6% to 163.98
MXAPJ up 1.8% to 509.57
Nikkei down 0.7% to 32,686.25
Topix down 1.4% to 2,321.35
Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 16,402.19
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,958.99
Sensex up 1.3% to 70,474.76
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 7,377.86
Kospi up 1.3% to 2,544.18
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 478.74
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.03%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0907
Brent Futures up 1.5% to $75.36/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,036.91
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.31% to 102.55
Top Overnight News
Japan’s political scandal looks set to wipe out heavyweights of the ruling party’s once-mighty faction favoring big monetary stimulus, easing the path for the BOJ in pulling the economy out of decades of ultra-low interest rates. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday announced he would make changes to his cabinet as he seeks to stem the fallout from a fundraising scandal that has further dented public support for his embattled administration. RTRS
There are many good reasons for domestic and international investors to keep shunning Chinese stocks. Yet it is also relatively easy to be underweight a market that is underperforming. Any revival would force investors to revisit their assumptions. For those with a stomach for a high-risk, high-return trade, there is scope for a long march upwards. RTRS
The US, the UK and France are exploring ways to convince Hizbollah to pull back from the Lebanon-Israel border in a diplomatic push to prevent a full-blown conflict erupting between the militant group and Israel. FT
Norway’s Norges Bank surprises markets with a 25bp hike (from 4.25% to 4.5%) and says rates will be kept at this level “for some time”. RTRS
ECB: Given our revised inflation profile, we expect the first rate cut in April and now look for faster cuts of 25bp per meeting (vs 25bp per quarter before) until the deposit rate reaches 2.25% by early 2025. While it is possible that the Council cuts rates with the new projections in March, we view April as somewhat more likely given our expectation for firmer growth, the ongoing strength in wage growth and more data to confirm the slowdown in underlying inflation. GIR
BOE: We remain comfortable with the view that the BoE will cut policy rates later than the ECB and expect the first 25bp cut with the MPR in August. But we now see a faster pace of cuts once policy normalisation starts, with 25bp moves per meeting (vs per quarter before) until Bank Rate falls back to 3% in mid-2025. This quicker pace is more in line with historical cutting cycles, our updated forecast for the ECB and our forecast for a quicker decline in inflation. GIR
Donald Trump pulled ahead of Joe Biden in Michigan in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 5, after ties in October and early November. He now leads in the monthly tracking poll of all seven swing states that will decide the presidential election. BBG
Oil demand set to soften according to the IEA’s Dec report – “Global 4Q23 demand growth has been revised down by almost 400 kb/d, with Europe making up more than half the decline. The slowdown is set to continue in 2024, with global gains halving to 1.1 mb/d, as GDP growth stays below trend in major economies. Efficiency improvements and a booming electric vehicle fleet also drag on demand” IEA
Washington is nearing a breakthrough agreement on immigration reform that would clear the way for an additional package of aid for Ukraine. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned in reaction to the FOMC. ASX 200 was lifted with gains led by the rate-sensitive sectors after a fall in yields and with participants also digesting the latest jobs data which showed a much larger-than-expected increase in headline employment change. Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and was initially boosted at the open but then failed to sustain the 33,000 level and wiped out all its gains amid selling in the banking sector and headwinds from a stronger currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially positive with the former underpinned after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while gains in the mainland were limited following the latest Chinese loans and aggregate financing data which missed estimates.
Top Asian News
HKMA kept its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
Japan’s negative rate exit scenario is said to be muddled by the Fed outlook with the BoJ preparing to tighten monetary policy as other central banks signal loosening, according to Nikkei.
Japan’s ruling LDP tax reform panel agreed on income tax breaks aimed at offsetting the impact of price increases on households, according to Reuters.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says external demand shows signs of warming up
Fitch Ratings says “Australia’s continued revenue outperformance and prudent fiscal management, with the government saving most of its revenue windfall, remain supportive of its ‘AAA’/Stable sovereign rating”
China’s Beijing government says it is to reduce the minimum down payment for new mortgages; payment ratio will be lowered to 30%
European equities, Eurostoxx50 (+0.7%), are firmer with clear outperformance in the FTSE 100 (+2.0%) benefitting from gains in Basic Resources. European sectors are entirely in the green with the exception of Insurance; sectoral performance today is guided by lower interest rate expectations, which has led Real Estate to the top of the pile. US equity futures are trading higher after a dovish FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, where the US central bank signalled that three 25bps rate cuts were coming in 2024; the RTY (+0.9%) outperforms after soaring 3.5% yesterday.
Germany’s IFO lowers its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from +1.4% previously; upgrades 2025 to +1.3% from +1.2%
Around 65% of EV cars sold in France will be eligible for a new state bonus scheme, via Reuters citing sources
Central Banks: SNB
Maintains its Policy Rate at 1.75% as expected; prepared to be active in the FX market as necessary (removed reference to “selling”)
Will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. (Prev. “it cannot be ruled out that a further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term.”)
SNB Chairman Press Conference: SNB is no longer focussed on selling FX. This reflects that monetary conditions are currently appropriate; does not forecast any tightening given the forecasts so far; rate cuts were not part of the discussion today.
Central Banks: Norges Bank:
Unexpectedly hikes its Key Policy Rate to 4.50% from 4.25% (exp. a hold at 4.25%); The forecast indicates that the policy rate will lie around 4.5% until autumn 2024 before gradually moving down
The policy rate is likely close to the level required to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon. On the other hand, inflation is high, and the krone depreciation makes it more challenging to bring down inflation.
If cost inflation remains elevated or the krone turns out to be weaker than projected, price inflation may remain higher for longer than currently projected. In that case, the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate again.
If there is a more pronounced slowdown in the Norwegian economy or inflation declines more rapidly, the policy rate may be lowered earlier than currently envisaged.
FX
A subdued morning for the broader Dollar and index in a continuation of the losses seen after markets were surprised by the extent of the Powell pivot.
The Sterling and EUR modestly gain against the USD compared to some G10 peers are participants look ahead to the BoE and EUR confabs.
JPY is the top gainer in the European morning amid the hefty fall in the Dollar and US yields.
AUD, NZD, CAD are among the top gainers following the boost to risk sentiment and the Fed-induced surge in commodity prices.
EUR/CHF initially immediately moved lower (following the SNB) from 0.9499 to 0.9460 before recoiling back to highs of 0.9518 and then stabilising just under pre-announcement levels around 0.9492.
A hike at the Norges Bank sparked marked NOK appreciation against both the EUR and USD. USD/NOK fell from 10.70 to 10.60 before falling to a 10.5860 trough.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1090 vs exp. 7.1566 (prev. 7.1126).
Fixed Income
USTs are comparably contained, given US-specific risk events have now passed, with upside of around 20 ticks having extended marginally above Wednesday’s best; 10yr yield still sub-4.0%.
Gilts have similarly trimmed from a 101.69 best but still hang on to upside in excess of 100ticks, likely given recent relative underperformance in Gilts.
Bunds are holding just below the 137.00 mark having trimmed incrementally from the initial 137.28 high as newsflow slows slightly and attention turns to Lagarde.
Commodities
WTI Jan and Brent (+2.0%) Feb futures remain on a firmer footing in a continuation of the fallout from the FOMC policy announcement and press conference, which ultimately was more dovish than expected.
Spot gold was catapulted by the demised in the Dollar and yields following the Fed statement and press conference, with the opening candle at the time at USD 1,982.35/oz; Base metals similarly surged although gains overnight were capped by the mixed APAC mood.
IEA OMR: trims 2023 global oil demand growth forecast by 90k to 2.3mln BPD; 2024 demand forecast raised by 130k to 1.1mln BPD citing improved GDP outlook
BofA expects ULSD to Brent cracks to average USD 26/bbl in 2024 (vs average USD 36/bbl this year)
Citi (C) says “COP28 momentum for renewables is super-bullish for metals demand and fossil fuel aspirations more challenging”
Geopolitics
US National Security Adviser Sullivan met with Saudi’s Crown Prince MBS and discussed the humanitarian response in Gaza including efforts to increase the flow of critical aid, according to the White House.
US is reportedly holding up the licences for selling over 20k rifles to Israel due to concerns about attacks by extremist Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, according to sources cited by Axios.
US, Japan and Philippines national security advisers held a call and expressed concerns about China’s recent dangerous and unlawful conduct in the South China Sea, according to Reuters.
Chinese Embassy in Canada said China condemns Canada’s support for the Philippines in violating China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea, according to Reuters.
Iranian Defense Minister says the US “will face major problems if it wants to form an international force in the Red Sea”, according to Al Jazeera; adds “We have control in the Red Sea and all countries are present in it and no one can manoeuvre there”
US Event Calendar
08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 220,000
Dec. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.86m
08:30: Nov. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
Nov. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
Nov. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%
Nov. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30: Nov. Import Price Index YoY, est. -2.1%, prior -2.0%
Nov. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.8%, prior -0.8%
08:30: Nov. Export Price Index YoY, est. -5.2%, prior -4.9%
Nov. Export Price Index MoM, est. -1.0%, prior -1.1%
10:00: Oct. Business Inventories, est. -0.1%, prior 0.4%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting did its best to give investors an early Christmas present, all packaged with a bow and extra special gift wrapping. In turn this added more fuel to the soft landing narrative. Our 2024 outlook has 175bps of Fed cuts in it but this is premised on a mild recession. One change to a dot plot doesn’t automatically completely change the direction for the economy but the risks that the Fed stubbornly hold in restrictive territory while the lag of policy hits has been reduced by their change of tone .
Markets were very bulled up by the move and the positive market reaction to the initial decision gained further traction during Powell’s conference. By the end of the day, 2yr treasury yields were down over 30bps and the S&P 500 reached a record high in total return terms. The bond rally has extended overnight, with 10yr yields (-3.38bps) falling below 4% as I type. We’ll see if European central banks are anywhere near as festive today, with the ECB and BoE decisions due later. Don’t forget US retail sales and initial jobless claims too.
Starting with the Fed details, a dovish shift was signalled first of all by the updated SEP dot plot, with the median FOMC member moving to expect 75bps of rate cuts in 2024 (from 50bps before but from a lower peak). The number of officials seeing risks to inflation as titled to the upside also went down from 14 to 8 (out of 19), with most now seeing risks as balanced. In the statement, there were dovish tweaks on inflation and activity, while the previous hawkish bias was toned down, adding “any” in its reference to “the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate”.
Powell confirmed in the press conference that participants no longer expected further hikes, although they did not want to take the possibility off the table. Further, he stated that a “preliminary” discussion around rate cuts took place at the December meeting and offered no direct pushback when asked about recent market pricing. There were one or two elements of caution in his comments, indicating that “no one is declaring victory”. But overall he struck an optimistic tone on the progress made in fighting inflation, validating a dovish risk-on takeaway. Following the FOMC, our US economists maintain the expectations of 175bps of cuts from the Fed in 2024 starting in June, but with heightened risks that rate cuts could come as early as March. See their full reaction note here.
Following the Fed, money markets moved to price earlier and more aggressive rate cuts, with fed funds futures overnight moving to fully price a 25bps cut by the March meeting (up from a 43% chance as of Tuesday and 92% at yesterday’s close). And ~150bps of rate cuts are priced by end-24 as I type, up from 110bps this time yesterday.
Bonds rallied sharply, with 2yr and 10yr treasury yields falling by c. 15bps and 10bps respectively immediately after the Fed decision, and declining further during Powell’s press conference and overnight. 2yr yields were down -30.3bps yesterday to 4.43%, their biggest daily decline since March, and are trading another -5.2bps lower overnight. Meanwhile, the 10yr closed -18.5bps lower at 4.02%, its lowest in four months. It has extended the decline to 3.98% as I type. A remarkable turnaround since the 10yr traded above 5% intra-day on October 23. The major bull steepening in US rates has provided a challenging backdrop for the dollar,with the broad dollar index down -0.96% yesterday and around another -0.28% this morning .
Equities rallied strongly on the Fed’s upbeat message. The S&P 500 had been trading near flat on the day prior to the FOMC but rose by half a percent immediately after the decision, and by a similar amount during Powell’s press conference. It was +1.37% by the close, up to its highest level in nearly two years. The bigger milestone for the S&P 500 came in total return terms, which reached a new record high (eclipsing the peak of January 2022). The year-to-date total return on the index is now +24.5%. Across sectors, tech mega caps underperformed in the broad rally (Magnificent Seven +0.64%). On the other hand, small caps strongly outperformed with the Russell 2000 (+3.52% yesterday) approaching bull market territory, having risen 19% from its trough in late October. S&P 500 (+0.38%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.53%) futures are rising further this morning.
Looking back at yesterday prior to the Fed decision, US Treasuries had already got some momentum from a softer-than-expected PPI reading for November. In particular, t he core measure excluding food and energy was at just +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), which took the year-on-year measure down to +2.0% (vs. +2.2% expected), marking its lowest level since January 2021. Some of the PPI components feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation, so all things being equal the decline offers further support for the prospect of rate cuts next year.
Looking forward now, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as both the ECB and the Bank of England are also announcing their latest policy decisions. For the ECB, it’s widely expected that they’ll be leaving their policy rate unchanged for a second consecutive meeting. But as with the Fed, speculation about rate cuts has mounted considerably in recent weeks, particularly after the latest inflation data showed CPI falling to 2.4% in November. At today’s press conference, our European economists expect the ECB to acknowledge this faster-than-expected decline, but to be coy about declaring victory prematurely. They think they’ll keep the guidance that maintaining restrictive rates for sufficiently long will bring inflation back to target in a timely manner, and they don’t expect the ECB to cut rates until April even if March is an increasing risk. See their full preview here.
Here in the UK, the Bank of England will also be deciding on rates, and it’s similarly expected that they’ll remain on hold. For now at least, the inflation situation in the UK remains comparatively worse than the US and the Euro Area, since CPI was still at 4.6% in October. So markets are pricing a slower pace of rate cuts from the BoE relative to the Fed and the ECB, with just 35bps of cuts priced in by the June meeting although this might change this morning. Moreover, our UK economist still expects there to be a split vote tally at the latest meeting, with 3 of the 9 members continuing to vote in favour of another 25bp hike. Looking forward, he expects rate cuts from Q2 2024, but thinks the risks of a delay are mounting. See his full preview here.
Ahead of those, European equities put in a steady performance before the Fed’s decision, with the STOXX 600 (-0.06%) posting a slight decline, just as sovereign bond yields fell to their lowest in months thanks to that US PPI reading. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds were down -5.4bps to 2.17%, and those on 10yr OATs were down -6.0bps to 2.71%. In both cases that’s their lowest level in 8 months. Moreover, gilts saw an even larger decline, with the 10yr yield down -13.5bps to 3.83%. That followed the release of monthly GDP data for the UK, which fell by -0.3% in October (vs. -0.1% expected), and led investors to become more confident about the prospect of BoE rate cuts next year. Expect to see these yields gap lower at the open after the Fed move last night.
Asian equity markets are continuing the rally this morning with the KOSPI (+1.32%) leading gains closely followed by the Hang Seng (+1.11%) while the CSI (+0.25%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.30%) are also edging higher but with the China move subdued again. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.86%) is on the weaker side reversing its initial gains as the Yen drives higher (+0.78%) to 141.77 after the FOMC .
Early morning data showed that core machine orders in Japan unexpectedly advanced +0.7% m/m in October (v/s -0.4% expected) as against an increase of +1.4% in the previous month. However, it remained down year-on-year (-2.2%) as uncertainty about the global economy pared companies’ appetite for fresh investments.
In other news yesterday, the German government reached a political agreement on how to rework the 2024 budget. Overall consolidation needs are in line with our economists’ earlier estimates (EUR 30bn), leading to a tighter fiscal stance for 2024 and slightly higher inflation. A loophole for a potential suspension of the debt brake in case of higher Ukraine support has been left open. See our Germany economists’ report here for details.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Otherwise, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims and retail sales for November.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer, DXY weaker, Antipodeans & JPY bid post-FOMC; BoE and ECB due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 06:05 AM
European equities and US futures continue to gain; the FTSE 100 outperforms lifted by upside in Basic Resources
DXY is weaker post-FOMC; Antipodeans bid on positive risk sentiment; JPY benefits from converging yield spreads
SNB unchanged at 1.75%, cuts not part of the discussion, dropped FX ‘selling’ reference; Norges Bank hiked to 4.50%
Fixed bid awaiting fresh impetus from the ECB and BoE
Commodities extend post-Fed gains as BoE and ECB loom; Base metals surged although gains overnight were capped by the mixed APAC mood.
Looking ahead, US Export & Import Prices, IJCs, Retail Sales, Australian PMI (Flash), BoE, ECB & Banxico Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde Press Conference, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
CENTRAL BANKS
SNB:
Maintains its Policy Rate at 1.75% as expected; prepared to be active in the FX market as necessary (removed reference to “selling”)
Will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. (Prev. “it cannot be ruled out that a further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term.”)
SNB Chairman Press Conference: SNB is no longer focussed on selling FX. This reflects that monetary conditions are currently appropriate; does not forecast any tightening given the forecasts so far; rate cuts were not part of the discussion today.
Norges Bank:
Unexpectedly hikes its Key Policy Rate to 4.50% from 4.25% (exp. a hold at 4.25%); The forecast indicates that the policy rate will lie around 4.5% until autumn 2024 before gradually moving down
The policy rate is likely close to the level required to return inflation to target within a reasonable time horizon. On the other hand, inflation is high, and the krone depreciation makes it more challenging to bring down inflation.
If cost inflation remains elevated or the krone turns out to be weaker than projected, price inflation may remain higher for longer than currently projected. In that case, the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate again.
If there is a more pronounced slowdown in the Norwegian economy or inflation declines more rapidly, the policy rate may be lowered earlier than currently envisaged.
European equities, Eurostoxx50 (+0.7%), are firmer with clear outperformance in the FTSE 100 (+2.0%) benefitting from gains in Basic Resources.
European sectors are entirely in the green with the exception of Insurance; sectoral performance today is guided by lower interest rate expectations, which has led Real Estate to the top of the pile.
US equity futures are trading higher after a dovish FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday, where the US central bank signalled that three 25bps rate cuts were coming in 2024; the RTY (+0.9%) outperforms after soaring 3.5% yesterday.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
A subdued morning for the broader Dollar and index in a continuation of the losses seen after markets were surprised by the extent of the Powell pivot.
The Sterling and EUR modestly gain against the USD compared to some G10 peers are participants look ahead to the BoE and EUR confabs.
JPY is the top gainer in the European morning amid the hefty fall in the Dollar and US yields.
AUD, NZD, CAD are among the top gainers following the boost to risk sentiment and the Fed-induced surge in commodity prices.
EUR/CHF initially immediately moved lower (following the SNB) from 0.9499 to 0.9460 before recoiling back to highs of 0.9518 and then stabilising just under pre-announcement levels around 0.9492.
A hike at the Norges Bank sparked marked NOK appreciation against both the EUR and USD. USD/NOK fell from 10.70 to 10.60 before falling to a 10.5860 trough.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1090 vs exp. 7.1566 (prev. 7.1126).
USTs are comparably contained, given US-specific risk events have now passed, with upside of around 20 ticks having extended marginally above Wednesday’s best; 10yr yield still sub-4.0%.
Gilts have similarly trimmed from a 101.69 best but still hang on to upside in excess of 100ticks, likely given recent relative underperformance in Gilts.
Bunds are holding just below the 137.00 mark having trimmed incrementally from the initial 137.28 high as newsflow slows slightly and attention turns to Lagarde.
WTI Jan and Brent (+2.0%) Feb futures remain on a firmer footing in a continuation of the fallout from the FOMC policy announcement and press conference, which ultimately was more dovish than expected.
Spot gold was catapulted by the demised in the Dollar and yields following the Fed statement and press conference, with the opening candle at the time at USD 1,982.35/oz; Base metals similarly surged although gains overnight were capped by the mixed APAC mood.
IEA OMR: trims 2023 global oil demand growth forecast by 90k to 2.3mln BPD; 2024 demand forecast raised by 130k to 1.1mln BPD citing improved GDP outlook
BofA expects ULSD to Brent cracks to average USD 26/bbl in 2024 (vs average USD 36/bbl this year)
Citi (C) says “COP28 momentum for renewables is super-bullish for metals demand and fossil fuel aspirations more challenging”
Germany’s IFO lowers its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from +1.4% previously; upgrades 2025 to +1.3% from +1.2%
Around 65% of EV cars sold in France will be eligible for a new state bonus scheme, via Reuters citing sources
DATA RECAP
UK RICS Housing Survey (Nov) -43 vs. Exp. -57 (Prev. -63, Rev. -61)
Spanish CPI MM Final NSA (Nov) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%); YY Final NSA (Nov) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%)
Spanish HICP Final YY (Nov) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%); HICP Final MM (Nov) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%)
Swedish CPI YY (Nov) 5.8% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.5%); MM 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%); CPIF Ex Energy YY (Nov) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 6.1%); M/M -0.5% vs Exp. 0.1% (prev. 0.1%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Adobe Inc (ADBE) – Adobe slipped 5% afterhours following light outlook. It reported Q3 adj. EPS of 4.27 (exp. 4.14), Q3 revenue USD 5.05bln (exp. 5.02bln). Q3 subscription revenue USD 4.76bln (exp. 4.74bln), Q3 product sales USD 114mln (exp. 103.4mln). On trends, Adobe expects normal seasonality throughout the year, with a seasonal step down for new business into Q1, and sees sequential growth from Q1 to Q2, typical Q3 summer seasonality, and a strong finish to the year in Q4 2024.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan met with Saudi’s Crown Prince MBS and discussed the humanitarian response in Gaza including efforts to increase the flow of critical aid, according to the White House.
US is reportedly holding up the licences for selling over 20k rifles to Israel due to concerns about attacks by extremist Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, according to sources cited by Axios.
US, Japan and Philippines national security advisers held a call and expressed concerns about China’s recent dangerous and unlawful conduct in the South China Sea, according to Reuters.
Chinese Embassy in Canada said China condemns Canada’s support for the Philippines in violating China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea, according to Reuters.
Iranian Defense Minister says the US “will face major problems if it wants to form an international force in the Red Sea”, according to Al Jazeera; adds “We have control in the Red Sea and all countries are present in it and no one can manoeuvre there”
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (-0.2%) is lower and resides just below the USD 43k level, whilst Ethereum (+0.3%) gains marginally.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly higher with sentiment underpinned in reaction to the FOMC.
ASX 200 was lifted with gains led by the rate-sensitive sectors after a fall in yields and with participants also digesting the latest jobs data which showed a much larger-than-expected increase in headline employment change.
Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and was initially boosted at the open but then failed to sustain the 33,000 level and wiped out all its gains amid selling in the banking sector and headwinds from a stronger currency.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially positive with the former underpinned after the HKMA kept rates unchanged in lockstep with the Fed, while gains in the mainland were limited following the latest Chinese loans and aggregate financing data which missed estimates.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
HKMA kept its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
Japan’s negative rate exit scenario is said to be muddled by the Fed outlook with the BoJ preparing to tighten monetary policy as other central banks signal loosening, according to Nikkei.
Japan’s ruling LDP tax reform panel agreed on income tax breaks aimed at offsetting the impact of price increases on households, according to Reuters.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says external demand shows signs of warming up
Fitch Ratings says “Australia’s continued revenue outperformance and prudent fiscal management, with the government saving most of its revenue windfall, remain supportive of its ‘AAA’/Stable sovereign rating”
China’s Beijing government says it is to reduce the minimum down payment for new mortgages; payment ratio will be lowered to 30%
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Oct) 0.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.4%); YY -2.2% vs. Exp. -5.1% (Prev. -2.2%)
Australian Employment Change (Nov) 61.5k vs. Exp. 11.0k (Prev. 55.0k); Full-Time Employment Change 57.0k (Prev. 17.0k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%); Participation Rate 67.2% vs. Exp. 66.9% (Prev. 67.0%)
New Zealand GDP QQ (Q3) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 0.5%); YY -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.8%, Rev. 1.5%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.77 PTS OR 0.33% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 173.44 PTS OR 1.07% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 240.10 PTS OR 0.73% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.74 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1336 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1367 /Oil UP TO 70.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.65/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
France is a basket case! No wonder 80% support ban on more immigration. Two thirds back a new referendum on this
(zerohedge)
80% Of French Support Ban On More Immigration, Two-Thirds Back Referendum
An overwhelming majority of French citizens do not think their government should welcome any more migrants to France and two-thirds of the country backs a referendum on immigration, recent polling has shown.
According to the survey conducted by the CSA Institute for CNEWS published on Tuesday, 80 percent of people in France want a ban on immigration, compared with just 19 percent in favor of further new arrivals.
Opposition to more mass immigration is the majority view among all age groups. The most welcoming demographic is younger people; however, 68 percent remain against more immigration compared to 31 percent in favor.
The age bracket most opposed to open borders is 50-64, where 88 percent are against, five percentage points more than those aged 65+.
While opposition to mass immigration is almost unanimous among right-leaning voters — 100 percent of Éric Zemmour’s Reconquête and 98 percent of National Rally voters are against it — an increasing number of left-wing sympathizers are also questioning the number of new arrivals into France.
A total of 56 percent of left-wing voters oppose more immigration, with the only slim majorities in favor found among supporters of the Radical Party of the Left (55 percent), LFI (55 percent), and the Greens (52 percent).
The survey was conducted on Dec. 11-12 as the French government’s immigration bill was being rejected by the French parliament. Left-wing parliamentary factions believed the bill infringed on human rights, while right-wing politicians including Marine Le Pen said the bill was “pro-immigration.”
The same poll revealed that two-thirds of French citizens also support a referendum on immigration, a move proposed for some time by right-wing parties, who believe an influx of new arrivals has threatened social cohesion in the country and led to an increase in crime.
An increase in crime due to immigration was evidenced last week by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin who revealed that 60 percent of people arrested in France are foreign nationals.
Nigel Farage now far more popular among UK conservatives than PM Sunak
(zerohedge)
Nigel Farage Now Far More Popular Among UK Conservatives Than PM Sunak
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Nigel Farage’s decision to take part in reality TV show I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here has proven to be a massive success, with a new poll showing he’s more popular amongst Conservative voters than the Prime Minister.
Farage entered the show knowing it was a re-branding opportunity for the British public to see the real him away from media spin and vilification.
Despite early attempts by ITV bosses to edit him out of the show, he eventually made it to the final, finishing in 3rd place.
As Thomas Brooke reports at ReMix News, the ex-UKIP and Brexit Party leader has seen his popularity among the conservative grassroots surge after a three-week stint in the Australian jungle on the hit U.K. reality TV show, storming ahead of the current Conservative leader who now has a net negative rating among voters for his own party.
The survey, conducted by the JL Partners polling agency, showed Farage’s popularity score had risen to +18 among voters who backed the Conservative Party in the last general election in 2019. A total of 46 percent viewed him positively, compared to 28 percent who held a negative view of the GB News presenter.
Farage’s score has soared from a net positive rating of +1 before the show, vindicating his decision to take part in the show which he believed was an opportunity to appeal to a wider audience ahead of a much-rumored return to frontline politics.
By comparison, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s popularity has plummeted to a net negative score of -3 among his own party’s voters and the U.K. leader has a score of -41 among the wider electorate compared to Farage’s -29.
Since leaving the Australian jungle, during which he was prohibited from communicating with the outside world and keeping up with current affairs, Farage has launched a full-scale attack on the governing Conservatives’ Rwanda asylum deal — the flagship policy of Rishi Sunak’s leadership.
“This government is in desperate trouble and headed for catastrophic defeat,” he said after touching down at London Heathrow airport.
“They’ve no idea what’s coming down the track towards them. And I think the last thing I heard before I went into the jungle was that Cameron was back… if it’s got that bad, they must be in real trouble.
“And I see that he’s just about managed to squeak through a vote on Rwanda. But I mean, it’s going to make no difference at all. No, they’re in dire, dire trouble. And all Labour have to do is, frankly, not tear each other apart, and play safe and the election is theirs I think,” he added.
Commenting on the polling, Farage said he was “absolutely astonished by it”.
“Amongst 2019 Conservative voters, my approval rating has risen 20 percent in my time in the jungle, putting me 21 percent ahead of Rishi.
“It’s all very flattering, a little bit bewildering. It’s going to take some time for me to really take it on board. But fascinating, right?” he said.
When asked about his prospects of becoming a future Tory MP, Farage said, “Never say never.”
Bank of England holds rates at 15 year highs but that will come down very shortly..
(zerohedge)
BoE Holds Rates At 15 Year High, Warns “Still Some Way To Go” But…
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 07:57 AM
The Bank of England – as was expected – held interest rates steady at 5.25% (in a 6-3 vote – also expected, with Greene, Haskell, and Mann all pushing for another 25bps hike).
With rates at the highest level in 15 years, BoE governor Andrew Bailey warned there was “still some way to go” before inflation hit its target, with policy makers reiterating the need for rates to be kept high for an “extended period of time,” and leaving the door open the option of further rate rises if necessary.
“There is still some way to go. We’ll continue to watch the data closely, and take the decisions necessary to get inflation all the way back to 2 per cent,” Bailey said.
This persistent ‘higher for longer’ tone flies in the face of growing market bets on a wave of cuts in 2024 (in stark contrast with fresh signals from the Fed that US policymakers were preparing to ease rates next year), as BoE also cautioned that it is “too early to conclude that services price inflation and pay growth were on a firmly downward path.”
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said in a letter to Bailey that the bank continued to have his “full support” in its fight against inflation. The central bank said that Hunt’s Autumn Statement – which included a tax cut for workers and permanent full expensing for businesses – will boost the level of GDP by 0.25% over the coming years but also lift supply.
“We have turned a corner in our fight against inflation and real wages are rising, but we must keep driving inflation out of the economy to reach our 2% target,” Hunt said in a statement after the decision.
“By cutting taxes for hard working people and businesses, and helping people into work, we are forecast to deliver the largest boost to potential GDP on record.”
Nevertheless, the odds of a May rate-cut are up dramatically from yesterday’s close (based on swaps markets) and are barely changed post-BoE…
Will the BoE fold like The Fed and bend to the demands of the market? Willing to risk re-inflation to avoid a deeper re-cession?
ECB
ECB holds rates steady but cuts growth and inflation outlook. Their economy is in deep trouble
“Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.”
Also as expected, the ECB accelerated its balance-sheet reduction by allowing some bonds maturing from its pandemic portfolio to roll off before the end of next year. The schedule officials agreed on is slightly slower than economists expected. Here’s what the ECB says exactly:
“Over the second half of the year, it intends to reduce the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.”
But The ECB slashes its inflation outlook:
ECB Sees 2023 Inflation at 5.4%; Prior Forecast 5.6%
ECB Sees 2024 Inflation at 2.7%; Prior Forecast 3.2%
But, The ECB warned that while inflation has dropped in recent months, it is likely to pick up again temporarily in the near term.
Additionally, The ECB lowered its economic growth forecasts:
Sees 2023 GDP at 0.6%; Prior Forecast 0.7%
Sees 2024 GDP at 0.8%; Prior Forecast 1.0%
Sees 2025 GDP at 1.5%; Prior Forecast 1.5%
Sees 2026 GDP at 1.5%
However, it appears, relative to The Fed, this is ‘hawkish’ and the Euro is holding overnight gains…
There are no real changes in money market pricing over 2024 ECB rate cuts. A total of 154 basis points are priced in, compared with 156 basis points before the statement. Chance of a March cut is steady at around 80%.
Will Christina Lagarde jawbone a dovish bias?
* * *
Read the full redline below:
end
major plot against Jewish interests in Copenhagen thwarted so far
(Jerusalem Post)
DENMARK
Denmark arrests terrorists planning attacks related to Israel-Hamas war
The arrests were “carried out in close collaboration with our foreign partners,” said Flemming Drejer, who heads Denmark’s Security and Intelligence Service. “Persons abroad have been charged.”
By REUTERSDECEMBER 14, 2023 11:30Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2023 16:00
Copenhagen Police and PET hold a press briefing on coordinated police action, in Copenhagen, Denmark, Thursday 14 December 2023(photo credit: RITZAU SCANPIX/MARTIN SYLVEST VIA REUTERS)
Copenhagen police and the Danish intelligence service said on Thursday they had made several arrests in a coordinated action across the country on suspicion of preparation for a terrorist attack. The plot is likely related to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
The arrests were “carried out in close collaboration with our foreign partners,” said Flemming Drejer, who heads Denmark’s Security and Intelligence Service, according to AP. “Persons abroad have been charged.”
“This is extremely serious,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said to reporters at the European Union Summit in Brussels. “It is of course, completely unacceptable in relation to Israel and Gaza, that there is someone who takes a conflict somewhere else in the world into Danish society.
Denmark currently has its terror threat level set to “serious,” the second-highest. Drejer said that the country was not planning to change that assessment in response to this threat.
He said the case had “threads abroad,” the AP reported, and “was related to criminal gangs,” in particular the Loyal to Familia gang, which was banned by a Danish court in January 2020.Copenhagen Police and PET hold a press briefing on coordinated police action, in Copenhagen, Denmark, Thursday 14 December 2023 (credit: RITZAU SCANPIX/MARTIN SYLVEST VIA REUTERS)
Denmark’s Chief Rabbi: gov’t has been great, but we remain concerned
Rabbi Jair Melchior, Denmark’s Chief Rabbi, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday: “We are very pleased with the vigilance shown by our intelligence and police forces and the strong collaboration with local authorities. It’s a relief that they acted in time.”
Melchior added, “In their statement, [Danish security personnel] mentioned a desire to extend the surveillance period [on the alleged terrorists] but were compelled to go public due to the delicate circumstances.”Advertisement
As for the situation for Jews in Copenhagen since October 7, the rabbi said, “Over the past two months, there’s been a noticeable increase in antisemitic incidents, a trend that’s evident worldwide. However, the situation here is unique. There are indications of ties to international terrorist groups.
“In Denmark, the community has received widespread political support across the entire political spectrum. In response to the rise in antisemitic incidents, the Danish justice minister has visited our community five times since October 7. The prime minister has attended two of our events.
“We organized an event following the October 7 attacks, which even saw participation from the far-left in a show of solidarity. This was an extraordinary event. Despite this, we remain concerned about the ongoing situation.”
Terror plot comes amid already increased security
Denmark ordered its military to protect Jewish and Israeli sites earlier this month, deploying soldiers to guard both Israel’s embassy and Copenhagen’s synagogue. “The terrorist threat against Denmark is serious,” the country’s justice minister, Peter Hummelgaard, said at the time. “And the conflict in the Middle East has led to a completely unacceptable rise in antisemitism and more uncertainty among Jews in Denmark.”
Police resources were already stretched thin as security forces worked to contain both large protests over the war in Gaza and controversial events at which participants were burning the Quran. Denmark moved in September to ban the burning of religious books, sparking controversy over free speech rights and religious sensitivity.
END
GERMANY
Now Germany stops a huge Islamist attack. Welcome to the world boys!!BREAKING NEWS
Germany arrests four Hamas terrorists for plans to attack Jews
By REUTERSDECEMBER 14, 2023 17:59Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2023 18:02
Four members of the Islamist terrorist group Hamas have been detained on suspicion of planning attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe, German prosecutors said in a statement on Thursday.
Three of the suspects were detained in Berlin and another was detained in the Netherlands, according to the prosecutors.
Top Articles
Israel must offer Hamas leaders expulsion for hostages – ex-defense chiefs
“Following the terrible attacks by Hamas on the Israeli population, attacks on Jews in Jewish institutions have also increased in our country in recent weeks,” said German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann in a statement on the detentions.
“We must, therefore, do everything we can to ensure that Jews in our country do not have to fear for their safety again,” he said.
European authorities have warned of an increased risk of attacks by Islamists radicalized by the Israel-Hamas war.
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
And Biden wants to protect these people?
(Jerusalem Post
Palestinians largely support October 7 massacre, deny atrocities – poll
Only 7% of Palestinians said that they believed that Hamas committed atrocities on October 7.
Personal belongings including a child’s pram are seen on the road next to a car days after a mass infiltration by Hamas terrorists from the Gaza Strip, near Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in southern Israel, October 10, 2023(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
Over 70% of Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip support Hamas’ decision to carry out the October 7 Massacre and the vast majority do not believe that Hamas carried out atrocities during the massacre, according to a new poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) on Wednesday.
The poll found that there were “significant differences” between the attitudes of West Bank residents and Gaza residents. In the West Bank, 82% believed that Hamas’ decision to launch the attack was correct and only 12% said it was incorrect, while in Gaza, 57% said it was correct and 37% said it was incorrect.
Additionally, while 85% of West Bank Palestinians expressed satisfaction with Hamas’ behavior in the war, only 52% of Gazan Palestinians felt the same. In reference to specifically Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, 57% of West Bank residents expressed satisfaction with his role, while 43% of Gazans said the same.
Palestinians in general expressed disappointment with Fatah and the PA, with only 22% expressing satisfaction with Fatah’s role in the war and only 14% expressing satisfaction with the PA’s role.
Among the respondents, 85% said that they did not see videos showing the atrocities committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians on October 7. Only 7% of respondents said that they believed that Hamas committed such atrocities.
Palestinian Hamas militants take part in an anti-Israel rally in Gaza City May 22, 2021 (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)
The poll found that 95% of Palestinians believe Israel has committed war crimes during the war, while only 10% said that they believe Hamas has committed such crimes.
The majority of the respondents said as well that they believe that the massacre was conducted as “a response to settler attacks on al-Aqsa Mosque and on Palestinian citizens and for the release of prisoners from Israeli prisons,” while only 14% thought it was an Iranian plot to thwart Arab normalization with Israel.
While 70% of West Bank residents believe Hamas will win the war, only half of Gazans believe the same. A third of Gazans believe that Israel will emerge victorious.
Who should rule Gaza after the war?
When asked about who would be likely to rule Gaza after the war, nearly two thirds (73% in the West Bank and 51% in Gaza) said that Hamas would still be in power, while 11% said a PA national unity government would rule but without PA President Mahmoud Abbas. Additionally, 7% said that the PA under Abbas would rule Gaza, 4% said Israel would rule, 3% said one or more Arab countries would control the Strip, 2% said a unity government under Abbas would rule, and 1% said the UN would be in charge.
When asked who they would prefer to see controlling Gaza after the war, 75% of West Bank residents said Hamas, while only 38% of Hamas residents said the same. 16% of the respondents said a PA national unity government without Abbas should rule, 7% said the PA under Abbas should rule, 3% said one or more Arab countries should control the Strip, another 3% said a unity government under Abbas should rule, and 2% said the IDF should be in charge.
Some 72% of respondents said that they think Hamas will succeed in returning to rule Gaza after the war, while 23% said they do not believe Hamas will manage to do so.
Additionally, if the West Bank and Gaza are unified under the PA after the war, 70% of respondents said they would be opposed to the deployment of an Arab security contingent in the area, although support for such a contingent would rise to 45% if it provided basic, administrative, and health services.
About half of West Bank residents and Gazans said that they expect a ceasefire in Gaza within the next few weeks, while a quarter said that they expect the war to continue for weeks or months. Some 28% of West Bank respondents and 9% of Gazan respondents said that they expect Israel to “unilaterally end the war and begin to withdraw under the pressure” from Hamas.
Palestinian respondents expressed widespread satisfaction with Yemen’s role in the war, with 89% of West Bank residents and 68% of Gazans expressing satisfaction with Yemen’s role. In comparison, 56% of Palestinians expressed satisfaction with Qatar’s role, 49% expressed satisfaction with Hezbollah’s role, 35% were satisfied with Iran’s role, 34% with Turkey’s role, 24% with Jordan’s role, and 23% with Egypt’s role.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia sat at the bottom of the list, with only 8% of Palestinians expressing satisfaction with the UAE’s role and only 5% expressing satisfaction with Saudi Arabia’s role.
Palestinians split on what Israel’s goal in war is
When asked about what they thought Israel’s goals in the war were, 53% said that they believed Israel intends to destroy Gaza and kill or expel its population while 42% said that they think the goal is to exact revenge against Hamas and destroy the terrorist factions in the Strip.
The vast majority of respondents also said that they believe Israel will fail in eradicating Hamas, with only 8% thinking that Israel will succeed, although West Bank residents are more sure of this failing than Gaza residents (87% compared to 44%).
Of the respondents, 71% said that they believe Gazans who were displaced by the war will be able to return to their homes after the war, although West Bank respondents were much more optimistic about this than Gazans. (83% compared to 53%)
A majority of the respondents (52%) blamed Israel for the suffering of Gazans in the war, while 26% blamed the US, 11% blamed Hamas, and 9% blamed the Palestinian Authority.
Gazan face difficulties accessing necessities
Gazan respondents were also asked about humanitarian conditions in the Strip, with 44% saying that they have enough food and water for a day or two and 56% saying that they do not.
Only one third of Gazan respondents said that they can reach a place where they can access food or water.
Two thirds of Gazan respondents said that they had a family member who had been killed or injured in the war. Some 36% said that none of their family members have been killed or injured.
Most of the Palestinians polled (85%) said that they supported the release of Israeli women and children held hostage by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
The PCPSR interviewed 1,231 adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for the poll.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
(JERUSALEM POST)
A lot of money offering huge rewards for the Sinwars
IDF drops leaflets offering huge rewards for Hamas leaders’ locations
The flyers state that $400,000 is being offered for information on Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, $300,000 for his brother Muhammad Sinwar.
Flyers dropped by the IDF detailing rewards for information on Hamas leaders’ whereabouts, December 14, 2023(photo credit: according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law)
The IDF distributed flyers across Gaza on Thursday, promising huge rewards to anyone who would provide information on the locations of senior Hamas leaders hiding in the Strip.
The flyers state that $400,000 is being offered for information on Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and $300,000 for his brother Muhammad Sinwar.
A lower reward, worth $200,000, will be awarded by the IDF to those who provide information on the location of Rafa Salama, the Khan Yunis Brigade commander and, for the location of Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing, the IDF will give $100,000.
“Confidentiality is guaranteed,” the IDF states in the flyer and a phone number is provided to call.
Yahya Sinwar Gaza Strip chief of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement, waves to Palestinians during a rally to mark the annual al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day), in Gaza, April 14, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
Sinwar fled south in humanitarian convoy
Yahya Sinwar fled Gaza City in northern Gaza to Khan Yunis in southern Gaza in a humanitarian convoy soon after the war began, an Israeli source told KAN news last Saturday.
Hamas terrorists who surrendered in Shejaia and Jabalya over the weekend told Israeli security forces that Hamas leaders, including Sinwar, were “denying reality” despite being updated on the situation on the ground.
“The terrorists complain that the leadership of Hamas is disconnected from the serious situation they’re in on the ground,” IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said. “There is also a widespread feeling that the underground Hamas leadership does not care about the Gazan public above ground. This also greatly worries the military operatives of Hamas.”
IDF operations in Khan Yunis have intesified as Israel ramps up the search for the Hamas leaders. A few weeks ago, KAN reported that Sinwar and the commander of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif, were believed to be hiding in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.Go to the full article >>
end
WATCH: IDF detains 70 Hamas terrorists after fighting at hospital
Some 70 terrorists surrendered and left the building with their weapons.
Hamas terrorists surrender outside Kamal Adwan Hospital, northern Gaza, December 14, 2023 (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit) I northern Gaza hospital, airs footage
IDF troops from the 460th Combat Brigade of the 162nd Division operated in the Kamal Adwan Hospital area with the Shin Bet, with scores of Hamas terrorists being killed or detained.
During the operation, the IDF troops located a building close to the hospital that was being used by Hamas terrorists. An exchange of fire took place, in which a number of Hamas terrorists were killed.Some 70 terrorists surrendered and left the building with their weapons and were detained and taken for interrogation by the Shin Bet.
Kamal Adwan Hospital is in the Beit Lahiya area north of Gaza City, near the Israeli border.Hamas terrorists surrender to IDF soldiers at the Kamal Adwan Hospital, Gaza, December 14, 2023 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
In mid-October various media outlets quoted Hussam Abu Safiya, head of pediatrics at the hospital in northern Gaza, saying it did not evacuate despite calls to do so by Israel. The UN had warned at the time that hospitals would run out of fuel in two days on October 15.The fuel continued to flow despite the warnings. On November 4, CNN reported that “MedGlobal, a US-based organization that supports local health programs for vulnerable populations across the globe, issued an urgent appeal for fuel to power a generator at Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza.”
Hamas terrorists surrendering en masse
Images and videos have been circulating all week of Hamas terrorists surrendering to Israeli troops en masse as the terror group continues to lose control over the coastal region.Heavy fighting in northern Gaza in recent days has seen 10 IDF soldiers, including several senior officers, were killed and six wounded in one of the bloodiest battles of the IDF’s invasion of Gaza, the army announced early Wednesday.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, and IDF Southern Command Chief Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkleman all eulogized the dead as tragic heroes, while maintaining a broadly optimistic tone about the war’s future course.
The IDF and Shin Bet reveal footage showing several Hamas operatives who were killed by Israeli troops inside one of the terror group’s tunnels in northern Gaza. According to a joint statement, the “significant” tunnel was discovered in recent days by the Gaza Division’s Northern Brigade alongside the Shin Bet. The Hamas operatives were identified and killed by the Combat Engineering Corps’ elite Yahalom unit, using “diverse means,” the IDF says, without elaborating further. The footage appears to show a camera being lowered into the tunnel, with one operative touching the device, before apparently being shot or being hit by an explosive. The video then cuts to another clip, showing the bodies of several Hamas operatives on the floor of the tunnel.
An Israeli army officer gives journalists a tour, Friday, July 25, 2014, of a tunnel used by Palestinian terrorists for cross-border attacks, at the Israel-Gaza Border. (AP Photo/Jack Guez, Pool, File)
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says Hamas is “not safe” in its tunnels under the Gaza Strip, following the release of footage showing terror operatives killed by troops in a tunnel.
“In the Hamas tunnels, the troops planted explosives… we identified the terrorists with a camera, and killed several terrorists in this incident,” Hagari says in a press conference.
“Hamas terrorists, especially its senior members, choose to hide underground. This is the Hamas method of operating, hiding while using the civilians above them as human shields,” he says.
Hagari says the IDF has “new combat means” to kill Hamas operatives in its tunnels.
“We will enter, plant explosives in the areas where the terrorists are, and we will wait for the right moment to kill them underground. The terrorists will not be safe underground,” he adds.
Asked about repeated reports in foreign media about the IDF allegedly pumping seawater into Hamas’s tunnels, Hagari says: “We work in a variety of ways” to destroy the tunnels and get the operatives to come out
(COURTESY//REUTERS/AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL FOR PROVIDING THIS FOR US)
GAZA
Gaza families beg for bread, eat donkey meat as aid deliveries falter
By Nidal al-Mughrabi
CAIRO (Reuters) – People in Gaza described begging for bread, paying 50 times more than usual for a single can of beans and slaughtering a donkey to feed a family as food aid trucks were unable to reach most parts of the bombarded Palestinian territory
Israel was pounding the length of the Gaza Strip in pursuit of its goal of destroying Hamas, the conflict making it almost impossible for aid convoys to move around and reach people going hungry.
The U.N. humanitarian office OCHA said on Thursday that limited aid distributions were taking place in the Rafah area, close to the border with Egypt, where almost half of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million is now estimated to be living.
In the rest of the Gaza Strip, aid distribution has largely stopped, due to the intensity of hostilities and restrictions on movement along the main roads,” it said.
END
Divine intervention?
TURKEY/ISRAEL
(Jerusalem Post)
Turkish MP , 54 years old dies on the floor of their parliament while giving a blistering attack on Israel
Turkey MP dies after heart attack after criticizing Israel
Hasan Bitmez, 54, a member of parliament from the opposition Felicity (Saadet) Party, died in Ankara City Hospital, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca told reporters in televised remarks.
By REUTERSDECEMBER 14, 2023 12:30Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2023 13:00
Turkey’s opposition Felicity Party (Saadet) lawmaker Hasan Bitmez makes a speech at a stand with a placard, criticizing the government’s policy towards Israel, at the Turkish parliament in Ankara, Turkey December 12, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/Stringer)
An opposition Turkish lawmaker died on Thursday, two days after suffering a heart attack and collapsing in front of parliament as he finished a speech criticizing the government’s policy toward Israel.
Hasan Bitmez, 54, a member of parliament from the opposition Felicity (Saadet) Party, died in Ankara City Hospital, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca told reporters in televised remarks.
A graduate of Cairo’s Al Azhar University, Bitmez was the chairman of the Centre for Islamic Union Research and had previously worked for Islamic non-governmental organizations, his parliament biography shows.
He was married and a father of one.
Parliament’s official broadcast showed Bitmez collapsing to the floor after having been standing at the podium before the general assembly on Tuesday.Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan delivers a national statement at the World Climate Action Summit during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)
MP was criticizing Erdogan’s relationship with Israel
He had been criticizing President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party (AKP) over Turkey’s ongoing trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza, and despite the government’s sharp rhetorical criticism of Israel’s military bombardment.
“You allow ships to go to Israel, and you shamelessly call it trade… You are Israel’s accomplice,” Bitmez said in his speech after placing a banner on the podium reading: “Murderer Israel; collaborator AKP.”
“You have the blood of Palestinians on your hands, you are collaborators. You contribute to every bomb Israel drops on Gaza,” he told lawmakers during debate over the foreign ministry’s 2024 budget.
After finishing the speech, Bitmez suddenly fell backward on the floor, with other MPs rushing from their seats to help.
Koca said afterward that an angiography revealed that the two main veins in his heart were completely blocked.
“His heart stopped beating, then he was resuscitated in parliament and transferred within 20 minutes to hospital” where medical machinery kept him alive, Koca had said on Tuesday.
The small Islamist Saadet Party joined the main opposition bloc backing challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the May presidential elections against Erdogan, who prevailed.
The alliance’s agreement allowed for Saadet deputies like Bitmez to win seats in parliament by being named on the main opposition party CHP lists.
END
WATCH: IDF soldiers identify a Hamas sniper in a building in Gaza and call in for air support
The IDF strikes a Hezbollah terror cell in Lebanon on December 14, 2023 (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF on Thursday located and struck a Hezbollah terror cell that attempted to launch anti-tank missiles at northern Israeli border towns, the Israeli military said.
Rocket sirens sounded across Israel’s North earlier on Thursday. The IDF said that rockets launched toward Yiftah and Margaliot fell in open fields, with fighter jets later striking the source of the fire as artillery forces continued bombing terror targets across southern Lebanon.
end
IRAN/HOUTHIS/ISRAEL/USA//
Israel orders ports to hide online shipping schedules due to Yemen threat. Biden continues his love for Iran
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel Orders Ports To Hide Online Shipping Schedules Due To Yemen Threat
Israel’s National Security Council issued an “urgent instruction” on Tuesday ordering Israeli ports to remove information on the arrival and departures of ships from their websites, Globes newspaper reported. The directive comes in light of the recent Yemeni attacks on Israeli shipping and vessels headed towards Israel.
“As soon as it becomes clear in the future that there is no longer a problem that must be taken into account, it will be possible to return to the previous situation immediately,” Israeli officials told Globes.Ashdod Port, image via Port Technology International
The National Security Council’s instruction came the same day as a Yemeni naval attack, carried out by Yemen-based Houthis, on a Norweigan vessel north of the Bab al-Mandab strait. The ship was carrying oil and was en route to Italy.
However, the Norwegian ship was scheduled to dock in Israel’s Ashdod port next month. “Before attacking the STRINDA, the Houthis would have been able to discover that the Norwegian ship was calling at Ashdod through a simple Internet search,” Globes writes.
Ansarallah and Yemen’s Armed Forces have launched numerous drone and missile attacks on Israeli targets since the Gaza-Israel war began in October, particularly on the southern-occupied port of Eilat.
As part of its operations in solidarity with Palestine, Sanaa’s forces have declared war on Israeli shipping in the Red and Arabian seas and elsewhere. Since November 19, Yemen has seized one Israeli-linked ship and has launched drone attacks against at least two others.
The missile attack on the Norweigan STRINDA ship comes days after Yemeni Armed Forces spokesman Yahya Saree announced that Yemen will prevent the passage of any vessel headed for Israel in the Red and Arabian Seas if food and medicine do not enter the Gaza Strip.
The announcement was a response to the US veto of a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. As a result of Yemen’s naval operations, shipping companies, including Israeli firm Zim and others, have resorted to price hikes and costly reroutes around Africa.
Zim’s new ZMP route, which connects ports in China with Turkiye, recently said that its 12 vessels will not pass through the Red Sea. The cost of shipping in the Red Sea, in general, is on the rise due to Yemen’s maritime campaign, industry sources told Reuters this week.
War risk premiums – required to be paid by vessels sailing through high-risk areas – have risen this week to up to 0.2 percent of the value of a ship, from 0.007 percent last week, market estimates showed, translating “into tens of thousands of dollars of additional costs for a seven-day voyage,” Reuters reported.
“These attacks have the potential to become far more of a global strategic economic threat than simply a regional geopolitical one,” said Duncan Potts, a former vice admiral in the British navy.
END
YEMEN/HOUTHIS
Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis go all-out supporting Hamas and war
The Houthi statements and widespread coverage of this issue in their media show they are using Gaza as a new rallying cry; they want to potentially distract from problems at home, and show strength.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANDECEMBER 14, 2023 10:55Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2023 14:07
Supporters of Yemen’s Houthis hold a poster of the top Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi during a rally in Sanaa in September 2021.(photo credit: REUTERS)
Three key Houthi leaders put out statements on Thursday discussing Gaza and their widening war in the Red Sea targeting commercial shipping.
The Iran-backed Houthis have ramped up attacks in the Red Sea in the last week and say they will target all ships bound for Israel. On Wednesday, December 14, Israel President Isaac Herzog slammed the terrorist Islamic movement in an unprecedented statement.
“The Houthis have crossed a redline in the Red Sea,” He said. “The US-led international activities against the Houthi terror-pirates must be bolstered and strengthened in the form of a truly international coalition.”
The Houthis are now going all-out with their own statements. The group’s so-called “Field Marshal,” Mahdi al-Mashat, who heads their supreme political council, issued a statement that was broadcast by the movement’s Al-Masirah network.
In addition, another member of the Houthis Political Bureau, Abdul-Malik Al-Ajri, also issued a statement. As if that wasn’t enough messaging, Muhammad Abdel Salam, head of the Houthi negotiation delegation that deals with foreign issues, also put out a statement. Salem confirmed that his group is backing a ceasefire in Gaza and humanitarian aid.
This kind of policy is new for the Houthis. They began as a Yemen-based movement trying to take over the country. From 2015 to 2022 they fought against Yemen’s government, which was backed by Saudi Arabia.
Houthis making an effort to grow regional influence
Armed men stand on the beach as the Galaxy Leader commercial ship, seized by Yemen’s Houthis last month, is anchored off the coast of al-Salif, Yemen, December 5, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)Advertisement
Having secured a ceasefire with Riyadh, they seem to be trying to grow their influence around the region. As such, they are using the Iranian model of backing the Palestinians to achieve influence. Most countries in the region don’t care about the Houthis and see them as a small local problem. Now, they are showing they will “ride” the Palestinian wave to expand their role – and also give themselves the rights to attack ships in the Red Sea with impunity.
In his statement, Ajri said that the US and other coalition partners will not be able to bring security to the Red Sea. “The only way to restore calm in the Red Sea is linked to the return of calm to Gaza,” he said. He also posted about this issue on X, formerly known as Twitter, discussing the “permanent ceasefire and lifting the siege on Gaza.”
The head of the national negotiating delegation, Muhammad Abdel Salam, said that “in light of the operations in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, we are receiving several communications and messages from active countries confirming their support for the ceasefire in Gaza and their commitment to working to bring humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people, and that they are against expansion of the conflict.”
The Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Security, Field Marshal Mahdi Al-Mashat, also slammed the “American enemy” and discussed “Yemen’s defense of Palestine and Jerusalem and its support for Gaza,” which he said was as important as “defense of Yemen and the nation.”
He discussed escalation against Israel. “He added that the crimes of the American enemy today in Gaza are not new, but rather they are only one point in the record of its heinous crimes against humanity since its inception and appearance,” Al-Masirah reported.
This is an important message of discipline for the Houthis. The group’s official slogan is “Death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews,” so their hatred for Israel and the US is not a secret. However, they have not usually acted on it because they were fighting a mostly local war.
Iran sought to operationalize them in 2015 to also use Yemen as a test bed for drones and ballistic missiles. The Houthis used these against Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. However, its ability to strike Israel has grown.
Recently, it has targeted Eilat numerous times. Israel has used F-35s and the Arrow system to defend its southernmost city. The Israel Minister of Defense also showed off photos of the Iron Dome in southern Israel, illustrating that it has also been used in interceptions.
The Houthi statements today and widespread coverage of this issue in their media show that they are using Gaza as their new rallying cry, and they want to potentially distract from problems at home by showcasing their ability to attack ships in the Red Sea. So far, they have had impunity to do so, which has only made their appetite grow.
END
IRAN/YEMEN USA AND ALLIES
This idiot, Ashtiani warns the West against a proposed USA backed Red Sea force
(Reuters/Jerusalem Post)
Iran warns against proposed US-backed Red Sea force – ISNA
American and French navies have strengthened their presence in the Red Sea to protect vessels from the risk of seizure or attack by the Houthis.
By REUTERSIran’s Army Chief Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani visit a drone site at an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on April 20, 2023.(photo credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA/REUTERS)
Iran’s Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani warned that a proposed US-backed multinational task force to protect shipping in the Red Sea would face “extraordinary problems,” official Iranian media reported on Thursday.
Ashtiani’s comments came after the United States said last week it was in talks with other countries to set up a task force following a spate of attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on ships in the Red Sea.
“If they make such an irrational move, they will be faced with extraordinary problems,” Ashtiani told the official Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA) in comments it published on Thursday.
“Nobody can make a move in a region where we have predominance,” he said, referring to the Red Sea.
Ashtiani did not specify what measures Iran was prepared to take in response to the setting up of a US-backed Red Sea task force.
Talks regarding the Maritime Taskforce are underway
An American Navy ship seen in the red sea port of Eilat on June 8, 2021. (credit: FLASH90)
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters last week that Washington was in talks with “other countries” over forming a “maritime task force … to ensure safe passage of ships in the Red Sea,” but did not give further details.
Yemen’s Houthis, which are aligned with Iran, have waded into the Israel-Hamas conflict by attacking vessels in vital shipping lanes and firing drones and missiles at Israel more than 1,000 miles from their seat of power in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa.
American and French navies have strengthened their presence in the Red Sea to protect vessels from the risk of seizure or attack by the Houthis.Go to the full article >>
END
Maybe, Biden “the Magnificent” should pay attention as this is very costly to ship now
(Jerusalem Post)
President Herzog: Houthis crossed redline in Red Sea
Israel’s president call for the establishment of an international coalition to confront Houthi threats.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF, REUTERSDECEMBER 13, 2023 22:30Updated: DECEMBER 13, 2023 22:33
Houthi terrorists open the door of the cockpit on the ship’s deck in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023(photo credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
Israeli officials called for an international coalition to halt the threat the Houthi Iranian proxy group poses to international shipping in the Red Sea.
“The Houthis have crossed a redline in the Red Sea,” President Isaac Herzog stated in a message he posted on X.
“The US-led international activities against the Houthi terror pirates must be bolstered and strengthened in the form of a truly international coalition,” he stated.
Herzog said that the “continued acts of terrorism and piracy against ships of all nationalities and ownerships require the entire international community to act, united, forcefully and decisively, to stamp out this vile threat to the global economy and trade.”
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen called on the international community to act “aggressively” to protect the shipping lanes.
Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023 (credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
Houthi attacks intensify against maritime traffic
A tanker in the Red Sea off Yemen’s coast was fired on by gunmen in a speedboat and targeted with missiles, maritime sources said on Wednesday, the latest incident to threaten the shipping lane after Yemeni Houthi forces warned ships not to travel to Israel.
A second commercial vessel was also approached by the speedboat in the same area though not attacked, British maritime security firm Ambrey and other sources said.
Separately, a US defense official in Washington said the US Navy destroyer Mason on Wednesday shot down a Houthi drone launched from Yemen that was headed in its direction, as it responded to reports of an attack on a commercial vessel.
The US official said Houthis had attacked the commercial vessel Ardmore Encounter in skiffs and that two missiles were fired from Yemen that missed the ship. The Ardmore Encounter reported no damage or injuries and continued on its way.
Ardmore Shipping Corp, owner and operator of the Ardmore Encounter, confirmed the vessel came under attack while transiting the Red Sea.
“No one boarded the vessel and all crew members are safe and accounted for. The vessel remains fully operational with no loss of cargo or damage onboard, and is considered to be out of immediate danger,” the company said in a statement, adding the ship “received military assistance during the attack.”
The Iran-aligned Houthi group has sought to support their Palestinian ally Hamas in the Gaza war by firing missiles at Israel and threatening shipping in the busy Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the latest incidents in the busy shipping route off Yemen’s coast.
END
YEMEN/ISRAEL/USA
this morning!
New attack! What on earth is the idiot Biden doing?
(Jerusalem Post)
Houthis order Red Sea ship to change course as blasts heard
Ambrey said the ship had reported a group claiming to be the “Yemeni Navy” had demanded the change in course.
By REUTERSDECEMBER 14, 2023 15:03Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2023 16:47
People walk down a ladder after they toured the Galaxy Leader commercial ship, seized by Yemen’s Houthis last month, off the coast of al-Salif, Yemen December 5, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)
The ship also said it had been instructed to change course and sail to Yemen, the UKMTO said in an advisory note.
The crew of the Hong Kong-flagged, Marshall Islands-owned vessel were not harmed in the incident, which occurred approximately 45 kilometers northwest of Mocha, Yemen, British maritime security company Ambrey said in a separate advisory.
It said it believes the group is Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023 (credit: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS)
The Houthis have sought to support the Palestinians in Gaza by firing missiles at Israel and threatening shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which lies next to Yemen at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
The UKMTO and Ambrey said they were investigating the incident and another involving a vessel sailing in the Indian Ocean off Yemen.
end
this afternoon. Can someone tell Biden to get off his asses!
(Jerusalem Post)
Bulk carrier reportedly boarded in eastern Indian Ocean off Yemen
By REUTERSDECEMBER 14, 2023 17:49
A Malta-flagged, Bulgarian-owned bulk carrier was reportedly boarded on Thursday after being involved in an incident in the eastern Indian Ocean off Yemen’s Socotra Island, British maritime security company Ambrey said in an advisory note.
An Iranian-flagged fishing vessel in the area had switched off its AIS transponder six hours before the incident close to where the bulk carrier appeared to come adrift, Ambrey said.
end
Then this happened! Biden is one total moron for not engaging the Houthis!
(zerohedge)
Maersk Ship Attacked Off Yemen As Danish Liner Giant Orders Tankers To Avoid Red Sea
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 10:20 AM
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis are determined to disrupt all international shipping through the Red Sea as retaliation for Israel’s Gaza operation and the West’s support of Israel. After a string of incidents, including further Houthi militant attempts to hijack shipping vessels, the British Maritime Trade Authority says it has received a report that a ship in the Red Sea witnessed an explosion off the coast of Yemen. Soon after, the Pentagon said a missile was fired from Yemen on a nearby container ship.
“A missile fired from territory controlled by the Houthis in Yemen missed a container ship traveling through the crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, a US defense official said, the latest attack threatening shipping in the crucial maritime chokepoint,” as cited in the Associated Press.Via Sky News/Maersk
“The attack saw the missile splash harmlessly in the water near the Maersk Gibraltar, a Hong Kong-flagged container ship that had been traveling from Salalah, Oman, to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the official said,” the source indicated.
This appears directly connected to that prior alert issued by the UK Maritime Trade Operations. But what’s become clear is this alarming new situation where Yemeni militants are taking pot shots at foreign vessels off the coast, in addition to sending sporadic missiles and drones toward Israel.
Bloomberg has also in breaking reporting confirmed there was an attempted attack on a Maersk container ship. Maersk says that one of its vessels came under attack, but the crew and vessel are reported safe.
There have been unconfirmed claims from Mideast sources that the ship may have been hijacked, or there was an attempted hijacking, but Maersk’s statement appears to have dispelled these rumors. “At this time, we are still working to establish the facts of the incident,” the Danish liner giant said.
“The current situation puts seafarer lives at risk and is unsustainable for global trade,” the statement continued. “As it cannot be solved by the global shipping industry on its own, we call on political action to ensure a swift de-escalation.”
ShippingWatch has also said the ship was targeted by missile attack from Yemen, but the projectile missed. At this point there’s been about a dozen similar incidents, including the prior hijacking of an Israeli-linked ship.
There’s been talk among US allies of forming a major naval coalition to monitor and patrol regional waters. This after complaints recently emerged from the Pentagon saying that Biden had ‘handcuffed’ the generals and admirals, and that the White House is unwilling and not ready to respond.
Importantly, Maersk now says its tankers will avoid the Red Sea altogether. This directive has reportedly already been sent out. As of late last month, the Maersk exodus had begun:
Ships with links to Israel are diverting in greater numbers from the Red and Arabian Seas following a series of attacks over the past 11 days by Houthis, Iranians and Somalis.
Danish liner giant Maersk became the latest big name to announce that a pair of its ships on charter – Lisa and Maersk Pagani – will be diverted with cargoes discharged in the United Arab Emirates resulting in delays of more than a week.
“This decision has been made with careful consideration of various factors, prioritizing the safety of crew, the vessel, and your cargo,” Maersk stated in an advisory to clients.
Iran is meanwhile warning against a Western naval coalition in the Red Sea. But already US and other warships have increased their presence in regional waters, with the US Navy especially directly engaging Houthi projectiles. The incidents are becoming more frequent, already with at least three significant hostile encounters this week.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
END
Lt Col Richard Hecht
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
70% Of Deaths From Pfizer Vaccine In Japan Reported Within 10 Days Of Jab: Study
The peer-reviewed Japanese study, published in the Cureus journal on Dec. 7, looked at the association between Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination and deaths within 10 days of vaccination.
The risk period was defined as within 10 days of vaccination, with vaccination day being Day 1, and the control period defined as 11 to 180 days after vaccination.
The analysis was divided into two groups: Group 1 representing individuals aged 65 and above and Group 2, which included people aged 64 and below.
The researcher identified 1,311 deaths in Group 1, which included 662 males and 649 females. In Group 2, the team identified 247 deaths—155 males and 92 females.
“The percentage of reported cases that experienced death within 10 days after vaccination was 71 percent in Group 1 and 70 percent in Group 2,” said the study results.
Over-65s
In Group 1, more women than men died overall from various medical conditions in the first 10 days of vaccination. Following the 10 days, there were more deaths reported of men.
Most of the post-vaccine deaths happened on the second day, followed by the third and fourth days.
Other than “unexplained deaths,” the biggest cause of death in this group was ischemic heart disease (119 deaths), followed by heart failure (92), and aspiration pneumonia/asphyxia (72). Autopsies were performed in eight of the 239 unexplained death cases.
Group 2
In Group 2, over two times more men died than women from various medical conditions during the first 10 days of vaccination. Overall deaths after the initial 10 days were only slightly higher among men.
The highest number of post vaccination deaths were registered on the third day, followed by the fourth, second, and fifth days.
After “unexplained deaths,” the biggest cause of death in this group was ischemic heart disease (27 deaths), cardiac arrhythmias (24), subarachnoid hemorrhage (20), and myocarditis/pericarditis (17). Autopsies were conducted in nine out of the 51 unexplained deaths.
There was an outsized difference in male–female deaths owing to myocarditis/pericarditis during the “risk period,” with eight men dying compared to just one woman. Heart failure resulted in the deaths of nine men compared to two women.
“Some myocarditis/pericarditis cases may be included within the unexplained deaths category. Myocarditis is a complication of vaccination, especially in young adults and adolescent males,” said the study.
One contributing factor for higher deaths of men during the first 10 days is “thought to be the high number of myocarditis/pericarditis deaths including undiagnosed cases.”
For both groups, the other death causes were: cardiac arrhythmias, aortic aneurysm/dissection, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, cerebral infarction, respiratory failure, interstitial lung diseases, pulmonary embolism, pneumonia, sepsis, anaphylaxis, thrombocytopenia, and marasmus.
In short, many more older Japanese women and men below 64 faced a higher risk of death immediately within the first 10 days of Pfizer vaccination.
Male–Female Differences, Study Limitations
The author, Yasusi Suzumura, calculated sex ratios for all-cause deaths and each outcome by dividing the number of males by that of females and multiplying by 100. That is, the higher the sex ratio, the greater the number of male deaths.
The author found notable differences between the number of deaths of men and women in both groups, impacting the study’s sex ratio.
“If there is no effect on the occurrence of death, there should be no difference in sex ratios by period. Thus, this finding indicates that vaccination may influence the occurrence of death during the risk period and might be associated with death,” the study stated.
The data on death numbers for the study were sourced from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW).
Specifically, cases involving only the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA vaccination reported between Feb. 17, 2021, and March 12, 2023, were included.
The study does not directly link the deaths with the vaccinations. “The results indicate that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination may influence the occurrence of death during the risk period,” said the study.
The author pointed to some of the limitations of the study including that the number of days from vaccination to death may vary depending on treatment, and that the study did not consider the effects of the vaccination after 11 days.
Besides this, the author said the sex-based reporting could have only been performed by a few doctors, and that the mortality rates could not be calculated because the analysis was performed only for deaths after vaccination.
The study had a limited sample size, and hence should be “carefully” interpreted. “Finally, the analysis results should be carefully interpreted because not all deaths reported to the MHLW were related to vaccination. Incidental deaths may be included in the reported deaths.”
The study author stressed that since vaccines are administered to mostly healthy individuals, it should have a “higher level of safety than pharmaceuticals used for treatment and should have an exceptionally low vaccination mortality rate.”
Therefore, even when the vaccination mortality rate is exceptionally low, vaccine safety must be analyzed with statistical methods.
“On this occasion, it is difficult to determine whether a post-vaccination death is incidental or vaccine-related,” said the study. However, the author concluded that this approach can offer valuable insights into assessing vaccine safety.
The Epoch Times reached out to Pfizer for comment.
‘Similar to Vaccine Deaths in US’
Commenting on the study, cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough said that the data on “COVID-19 vaccination and death in Japan is very similar to vaccine deaths in US/Domestic cases in VAERS,” according to a Dec. 9 X post. “Strongly supports causality for the nearly 1150 immediate deaths observed.”
VAERS has reported 18,188 deaths from COVID-19 vaccination through Sept. 29, 2023, with 1,150 deaths occurring on the same day as the vaccination.
In addition, 2,040 miscarriages, 9,053 heart attacks, 17,433 permanent disabilities, 5,057 myocarditis/pericarditis cases, and 36,184 severe allergic reactions were also reported.
The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons also shared the Japanese study on X.
The study author clarified that they have received “no financial support” from any organization for their submitted work.
Multiple other studies have also linked COVID-19 vaccines with higher mortality rates. A Sept. 17 report by Correlation Research in the Public Interest found that in the 17 nations analyzed, all-cause mortality increased when COVID-19 vaccines were distributed.
Nine out of these 17 nations had no detectable excess deaths following the March 2020 WHO declaration of the pandemic. Excess deaths only began with the vaccination campaign.
In 15 of the 17 nations, there were unprecedented peaks in all-cause mortality in January and February 2022, which coincided with or followed the rollout of booster shots.
The study estimated 1.74 million excess deaths in the 17 nations during the vaccination period, which comes to roughly 1 per 800 injections.
Meanwhile, Japan has approved the world’s first self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, although the manufacturer has not published safety or efficacy data for the shot.
The latest iteration of the mRNA vaccine is even more potent than the present version, as it generates more spike proteins in the human body.
Panicked New Zealand authorities issue threats and arrests after whistleblower leaks data connecting COVID-19 vaccines to excess mortality
A recent data leak that shows just how damaging COVID-19 vaccines are to human health has sent New Zealand authorities into damage control mode.
The whistleblower, 56-year-old Barry Young, was arrested after authorities said that he illegally accessed COVID-19 vaccine data belonging to the New Zealand government and shared it on the internet. Young is a former IT employee of the country’s health agency, which is known as Te Whatu Ora, and he is now facing a potential prison sentence of seven years for leaking the information.
The data he shared appeared to show that COVID-19 vaccines have killed more than 10 million people around the world, killing roughly one person for every 1000 doses administered, on average. He provided the data to New Zealand journalist Lisa Gunn and the American tech millionaire Steve Kirsch, who writes about COVID-19 vaccines and other topics on Substack. Both individuals have said that they believe the data proves the vaccines are killing massive numbers of people.
Young is currently facing one charge of dishonestly accessing the health authority’s databases and has not entered a plea. When he entered the courtroom, his supporters were so enthusiastic that the judge warned them that if they disrupted the proceedings, they would be asked to leave.
Anyone who hosts leaked data could lose everything on their server
While the New Zealand court system tries to silence Young, a vaccine watchdog group in the country has warned that anyone who is currently hosting the data he shared online could lose everything that they have on their server.
The group recounted how American genomics expert Kevin McKernan discovered that his entire MEGA account was suddenly closed. His account appears to have been deleted in response to an injunction from the New Zealand Ministry of Health to prevent the sharing of the data that was leaked by Young; he had reportedly mirrored Kirsch’s data on his server to make it easier for people to download and make their own analysis.
In addition to hosting the leaked data, he also had important medical genome and vaccine sequencing data on his server that is valued at around $200,000. McKernan has been one of the top scientists studying DNA contamination in the mRNA vaccines released by Pfizer and Moderna, and he has now lost all of his valuable sequencing data.
Meanwhile, Kirsch reported that Wasabi, the site where he hosted the whistleblower data, closed his account without notice.
However, pursuing people who are hosting this information seems like a waste of effort for authorities as the data already exists on the dark web and is securely stored on thousands of different servers, which means that despite their best efforts to delete it, it will never go away permanently.
Young wanted people to see the data and investigate it
Young recently appeared on Infowars, where he explained to host Alex Jones his reasoning for sharing the information.
“I just looked at the data and what I was seeing, since the rollout, it just blew my mind. I was just seeing more and more people dying that shouldn’t have been dying. It was just obvious,” he said.
He added that he has been suspicious about the safety of the vaccines since they were initially rolled out during the height of the pandemic and said that he observed what he considered “really big red flags” in the data he looked at, such as a higher number of deaths caused by the vaccine in New Zealand than the figures the health agency released indicated.
He said: “I want people to analyze this, I want people to look at it…we need to open it up and the government needs to have an inquiry about it. Just bring it to the public’s attention.”
People who got COVID jabbed now displaying major personality changes stemming from vaccine-induced neurological damage, experts warn
At an International Crimes Investigative Committee (ICIC) session held earlier this month, a handful of experts on the subject, many whom you well know, discussed the matter of personality changes that have occurred in people who got “vaccinated” for the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19).
Attorney Dr. Reiner Fuellmich interviewed Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Prof. Dr. Karina Reiss, Dr. Naomi Wolf and Dr. Peter R. Breggin about various matters concerning COVID jabs, including what they are really for, what they are doing to people and what future vaccines will look like based on the emerging mRNA (or modRNA, according to some) technological framework.
Dr. Wolf, an author and journalist, talked specifically about the post-injection breaking of people’s will and what it looks like in the current state of the world. Dr. Breggin expanded upon this by highlighting the disturbing parallels between the effects of mRNA on the human mind and lobotomization practices of old.
“Most people know lobotomy only from the movie ‘One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,’ although the Covid-crisis has revealed that nothing remains too sinister or creepy for Big Pharma to design and include in products that are intended for injection into populations en mass [sic] under the label of a ‘vaccine,'” notes The Exposé.
Not only do COVID jabs cause profound physical damage to bodily organs as we have been covering for many months now, but they also damage and destroy the tiny capillaries that exist in the brain as part of the critically important blood-brain barrier.
This barrage of destruction caused by the shots eventually leads to major personality changes in recipients, the experts discuss in the above video. In essence, COVID jabs are eating away at people’s brains in real time and turning them into lobotomized zombies.
The master plan with all this seems to be to subdue the planet under some kind of mind control as this lobotomization allows for the subsequent brainwashing of jab recipients, possibly with the help of 5G and other advanced anti-population weaponry.
Eventually, all so-called “vaccines” will bear the mark of mRNA, which means everyone will eventually be brain-destroyed and reprogrammed. These include future vaccines for measles, influenza and other infectious diseases.
Cattle used for food are also now receiving mRNA injections, which is tainting meat and dairy products with whatever those jabs contain.
Be aware that the above discussion delves much more in depth into the details of this chemical lobotomization process and how it displays in COVID jab recipients. The zombie-like aspects of the discussion hearken back to the CDC’s “zombie apocalypse” warning from years back, pre-COVID.
“People are acting unhinged,” one commenter on the content anecdotally revealed.
Another quoted scripture to back the unhinged comment:
“This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, traitors, heady, high-minded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God; Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away. For of this sort are they which creep into houses, and lead captive silly women laden with sins, led away with divers lusts, ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth. 2 Timothy 3:1-7”.
Do you know someone who seemingly shapeshifted personality-wise at some point after getting jabbed for COVID? Learn more at ChemicalViolence.com.
White lung explains. It is due to lack of immunity caused by the vaccines!
What is the White Lung Outbreak? Is it Real? Should You be Worried?
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
Over the last few weeks, many in the medical world have begun to look closely at disturbing developments in China as it related to “white lung” pneumonia and the relative lack of response from the government.
Writing in Dr. McCullough’s substack:
U.S. government agencies are fond of talking about “Pandemic Preparedness,” passing extravagant legislation such as the PREP ACT, and throwing hundreds of billions at the development of vaccines against viral respiratory illnesses—vaccines that are useless at best.
And yet, these agencies are, at the moment, strangely silent about a mysterious pneumonia that is affecting large numbers of children in two regions of northern China that are about 500 miles apart—Beijing and Liaoning Province. This situation reminds me of the conspicuous fact that the U.S. Consulate General office in Wuhan—which is presumably full of spooks—apparently reported NOTHING about the mysterious pneumonia that started circulating in that city in the autumn of 2019.
While the American government appears to be doing nothing, Dr. McCullough is urging Americans to be prepared.
We will be monitoring the situation in China closely, try to ascertain as quickly as possible what is causing the pneumonia.
In his position of ChiefScientificOfficer for the Wellness Company, Dr. Peter McCullough is conducting investigative scholarship to ascertain what medications are the most safe and effective for conditions such as the pneumonia now circulating in northern China. Our ultimate objective is to ascertain if already available, FDA-approved medications could be useful in treating this pneumonia in the event it spreads to the United States.
Given the appalling performance of so many doctors during the COVID-19 pandemic, many of our readers may find themselves in search of a new doctor who has demonstrated greater discernment. Such readers may consider a membership with the Wellness Company, whose Virtual Care program offers prompt access to a trusted medical provider to treat your illnesses and obtain prescriptions.
The Wellness Company is also offering Home Medical Kits to treat a range of infections, including COVID-19, bronchitis, urinary tract infections, cellulitis, yeast infections, and tick bites. The Kit contains ivermectin, amoxicillin, a Z-pak, and other medications, as well as a guidebook and a doctor visit by telemedicine to aid in the proper use of these medications. Additional or different medications may be added to the Home Medical Kits when appropriate.
The developing situation in China could be the next pandemic or it could be the next psy op or it could be nothing more than a problem for the Chinese.
What we know at this point is that we simply cannot rely on the government to protect us in the event of an emergency, but the truth is that our government has shown time and time again just how incompetent it is. Don’t let your family’s health be reliant on our corrupt and dysfunctional government in times of crisis.
Sadly, we all know the next medical crisis is just around the corner. Whether it comes in the form of a bioweapon or something much more mundane like a tick bite – you and your family need to be prepared. That’s where The Wellness Company comes in.
You know the Wellness Company, their great doctors – like Dr. Peter McCullough and Dr. Jim Thorp – are regularly in the media speaking out against the broken medical establishment.
Dr. Thorp, one of the nation’s leading critics of the corrupting influence of big pharma, believes that now – more than ever – people should be prepared for the next pandemic.
“I’ve strongly recommended “stock piling” critical medications including antibiotics since the turn of the century. This has been an incredible investment as many friends, family and patients have benefited. Now, in the winter of 2023, this recommendation is even more crucial.” – Dr. Jim Thorp
From anthrax to tick bites to COVID and even to a bioweapon like the plague – the Wellness Company’s Medical Emergency kit is exactly what you need to have on hand to be prepared.
Rest assured knowing that you have emergency antibiotics, antivirals and anti-parasitics on hand to help keep you and your family safe from whatever the globalists throw at us next!
America First Legal (AFL) is suing the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for failing to turn over documents related to the government’s suppression of the COVID-19 treatments hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and ivermectin.(Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)
According to the lawsuit, AFL filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request in August 2022 with HHS and the FDA seeking information related to the anti-malarial drug HCQ from March 1 to Sept. 1, 2020. AFL received confirmation and tracking numbers from both agencies that its request had been received.
AFL filed similar FOIA requests in September 2022 with the same agencies seeking information on ivermectin—a popular antiparasitic medication—and also received confirmation that the requests were received, along with tracking numbers, according to an AFL press release.
AFL, a nonprofit “working to promote the rule of law in the United States, prevent executive overreach, and ensure due process and equal protection for all Americans,” sought information to determine when and why government officials, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, discouraged and suppressed the use of HCQ and ivermectin to treat COVID-19. Neither agency complied with the requests.
“COVID-19 exposed the public health establishment to be highly politicized and shockingly inept. To this day, precisely why the bureaucrats suppressed HCQ and Ivermectin remains an unanswered question. In filing this suit, AFL has taken a first step toward exposing the truth and holding accountable the individuals responsible for denying patients access to these potentially useful drugs. Americans have a right to know if it was the political animus of leftist government workers toward former President Trump, rather than the science, that was driving decision-making,” Reed D. Rubinstein, AFL’s senior counselor and director of Oversight and Investigations told The Epoch Times in an email.
Despite hundreds of peer-reviewed studies supporting the effectiveness of both medications, the FDA has cautioned against using HCQ and ivermectin to prevent and treat COVID-19. On its website, the FDA states that “currently available data do not show ivermectin is effective against COVID-19,” yet half of the studies the agency uses to support its position support using ivermectin against COVID-19, according to a 2022 review by The Epoch Times.
In September, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals revived a lawsuit against HHS and the FDA filed by three doctors who claimed the FDA overstepped its authority when it initiated an anti-ivermectin public relations campaign in 2021 that warned people not to take the drug.
According to the lawsuit, the FDA released an informal consumer update 18 months into the pandemic discouraging the use of ivermectin to prevent and treat COVID-19. It then released a document on COVID-19 and ivermectin intended for animals and made four posts online—one on its website and three on social media featuring an image of a horse that stated the following:
“You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.” “You are not a horse. Stop it with the #ivermectin. It’s not authorized for treating #COVID.” “Hold your horses y’all. Ivermectin may be trending, but it still isn’t authorized to treat COVID-19.”
In an internal email, a member of the FDA’s communications team said the posts were part of a “new engagement strategy.” According to the lawsuit, the national media ran with headlines, and pharmacies, hospitals, and medical boards took notice of the FDA’s position and began restricting access to the treatment.
The FDA also sent letters to the Federation of State Medical Boards and the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy warning against using ivermectin to treat COVID-19, along with its advisory that said taking it in high dosages was dangerous.
Similar to ivermectin, the FDA cautioned against the use of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19, citing a risk of “heart rhythm problems” and claimed the medication was neither safe nor effective for treating or preventing COVID-19. The agency had previously allowed its use under emergency use authorization (EUA) but revoked the authorization in June 2020—six months before granting EUA to COVID-19 vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna. A month after revoking EUA for hydroxychloroquine, Dr. Fauci, the former White House coronavirus advisor, said in an interview with MSNBC that scientific data and clinical trials “that were valid” determined that “hydroxychloroquine is not effective” in treating COVID-19.
As stated on the FDA website, the FDA can use its authority to grant EUA under section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to allow the use of unapproved medical products or unapproved uses of approved medical products to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases when certain criteria are met. One of the criteria is that there are no “adequate, approved, and available alternatives.” Thus, to grant EUA to COVID-19 vaccines, no adequate, approved, and available alternative treatment for COVID-19 could exist.
employing the wrong criteria. It will not be easy to find the correct replacements who can strike the proper balance between responding to the pervasive anti-Semitism and “cancel culture” on campuses
‘As Ecclesiastes observed “to everything there is a season”. This seems to be the season for woke cowardice
[These administrators] are also insensitive to civil liberties and the rights of those with whom they disagree.
It creates divisiveness on campuses that makes Jewish students and faculty fearful for their safety when their university president seems unwilling to apply the same standard to those who advocate genocide against Jews as they surely would against anyone who advocated genocide against Blacks or the raping of women or the shooting of gay and transgender people.
What these universities need now are principled advocates of a single standard, rather than leaders who base their decisions on outside pressures and the need to pander to extremist students, faculty and administrators.
One thing is clear: [university presidents] should be selected on the basis of relevant, individual meritocratic criteria— not the cookie cutter criteria of the “diversity, equity and inclusion” bureaucracies.
The three university presidents who disgraced themselves and their universities by their abysmal testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Education and the Workforce represent a far larger concern. Pictured L-R: Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Professor Pamela Nadell of American University, and Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee on December 5, 2023 in Washington, DC, on the subject of antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
The forced resignation of the president of the University of Pennsylvania is a good first step in dealing with a far more pervasive problem in higher education.
Italy’s Top Health Official under Investigation for Mass Murder over Covid Vaccine DeathsREAD MORE…LATEST NEWS:WEF Calls for ‘Useless Humans’ to Be EliminatedRead more…WATCH: Golf Legend John Daly Calls For Trump’s Return: ‘I Pray To God He Wins’Read more…New Apocalypse Movie Produced by the Obamas Warns: “Don’t Trust White People”Read more…“And Now Introducing The 45th, 46th, and 47th President of the United States of America!” * * by NoahRead more…Ivy cover-upRead more…Hawley endorses Trump for presidentRead more…Don Lemon Says He Now Watches Conservative News, ‘Cut The Cord’ On Mainstream MediaRead more…Trump Says Special Counsel’s Actions in 3 Courts Shows ‘Desperation’ for Rushed TrialRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
NatGas ‘Widowmaker’ Spread Goes Negative As Supply Glut Forms Due To El Nino
The Northern Hemisphere winter has been mostly mild so far, driven by a weather phenomenon known as “El Niño.” As a result, natural gas futures in the US have plunged to six-month lows on ample supply while the spread between March and April contracts, known as the “Widowmaker” because of its high risk and volatility, has dropped below zero.
Bloomberg pointed out, “It’s the earliest in the season that the spread — which typically doesn’t drop below zero until the end of January or later — has gone negative on a closing basis since 2020.”
The rationale behind this trade is based on weather patterns and supply-demand dynamics. Across the Lower 48, March is still a winter month with higher demand for heating, which tends to keep natural gas prices elevated. By April, spring begins to arrive, and heating demand is reduced. Traders betting on this spread aim to profit from these predictable seasonal patterns.
But as the bet is known as Widowmaker, it’s notoriously risky because weather is unpredictable and can quickly change. This bet has led to the implosion of hedge funds such as Amaranth Advisors LLC in 2006.
Since the start of November, natural gas futures have plunged 35% because the mild winter has dented gas demand.
Weather forecasting data for the Lower 48 shows temperatures for December are above 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year averages.
Data from the Climate Prediction Center also validates mild weather forecasts for the remainder of this month.
Some weather forecasters believe a “pattern change is still on course for January” for North America.
And that is why this trade is known as the Widowmaker.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
ARGENTINA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0928 UP 0.0045
USA/ YEN 141.72 DOWN 1.071 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2716 UP .0095
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3445 DOWN .0066 (CDN DOLLAR UP 66 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 9.77 PTS OR 0.33%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 177.44 PTS OR 1.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.31% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 173.44 PTS OR 1.07%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 9.77 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.74%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 240.10 PTS OR 0.73%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2036.30
silver:$24.05
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.95 DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1101
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1132)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.671…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 11 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.932% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.074 DOWN 11 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.382 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 100.54 POINTS or 1.33%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 13.82 PTS OR 0.08%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 44.63 PTS OR 0.59%
Spain IBEX UP 75.60 PTS OR 0.75%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 63.37 PTS OR 0.21%
WTI Oil price 71.80 12: EST
Brent Oil: 76.10 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.67; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 34//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1270 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.7915 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0991 UP 0.0109 OR 109 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2763 UP .0146 or 146 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8195% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.659%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.77 DOWN 1.018 //YEN UP 102 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3406 DOWN 0.0104 CDN dollar UP 104 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.64
Brent OIL: 76.64
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 13 BASIS pts to 3.910%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 15 BASIS PTS to 4.031%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 4392 %
USA dollar index: 101.56 DOWN 92 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.97 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.87 UP 0 AND 14/100 roubles
GOLD 2036.80 3:30 PM
SILVER: 24.17 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 158.11 % PTS OR 0.43%
NASDAQ DOWN 24.54 PTS OR 0.15%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.43 UP ,24 PTS 1.97)%
GLD: $188.73 UP 1.0 OR 0.59%
SLV/ $22.15 UP .38 OR 1.75%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Crude Oil, ‘Crap Stocks’, & Credit Soar Amid Hedge Fund Carnage Ahead Of “Largest OpEx In History”
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Where to start…
US Macro is surging
The S&P is incredibly overbought
Hedge Fund bloodbath accelerates
Massive (Record) OpEx tomorrow
160bps of rate-cuts now priced in for 2024
Financial Conditions “loosest” since June 2022
The rest is more of the same – dollar puking, bonds soaring (yields plunging), gold and bitcoin higher, and oil spiking.
US Macro data continues to ‘beat’ (paging six-rate-cuts in the dot-plot) in direct opposition to Powell’s pivot to uber-dove…
Source: Bloomberg
…which smashed Financial Conditions to their loosest since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
And the market saw its inch and took a mile, now daring The Fed with 160bps of cuts priced-in for 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Hedgies have been humbled with a massive 12% plunge in the last two days as their favorite longs have underperformed and their biggest shorts have been squeezed massively higher…
Source: Bloomberg
The biggest 2-day drop since Jan 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
The dash for trash is evident as MAG7 stocks become a ‘source of funds’ to chase ‘crap’ stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
And all of this is happening with gamma at record highs…
And tomorrow is on course to become the largest OpEx in history for $SPX/ $SPY linked contracts, with a staggering $3.1 trillion in notional Open Interest scheduled to expire this Friday.
SPX is nearing the most overbought level (RSI >70) in well over a decade…
47% of the S&P 500 members are overbought after yesterday’s surge – the most since Feb 1991…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps are up – wait for it – over 7% since 1400ET yesterday when the ‘Powell Pivot’ hit. The rest of the majors are up around 1-2%…
But hey… it was easy really…
And if The Fed really wants to stomp on the tightening throat of real yields then S&P 500 P/Es are going back to the moon…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was steady ahead of OpEx (with a 12 handle) as credit spreads (IG and HY) crashed)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds extended their price gains and yield declines with the short-end outperforming (2Y -34bps, 30Y -27bps this week)…
Source: Bloomberg
…with 2s thru 7s now all lower on the year…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y Yield tumbled back below 4.00% (and 30Y dropped to 4.02%), its lowest since July…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended yesterday’s plunge for the biggest 2-day drop since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin and Gold extended gains as real yields fell today…
Source: Bloomberg
Palladium also exploded higher, up almost 12% (the biggest daily jump since March 2020)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil extended its rebound with WTI back above $72…
…that is not at all what The Fed will want to see if it is really going to stick to its plan of slashing rates.
Finally, are we here?
…and how long before Powell resigns?
In the first half of the year we had recession fears which priced in an increasing number of rate cuts for next year (and saw Biden’s approval decline)… then Aug-Oct we saw the economy appear to improve and rate-cuts were removed optimistically, but amid that optimism in the market, Biden’s approval rating continued to decline…
Then December hit and Biden approval collapsed… triggering markets to suddenly price in a massive rate-cut shift next year
Does make one wonder.
END
AFTERNOON TRADING//
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
Retail sales rebound in good start for U.S. holiday shopping season
Dec. 14, 2023 at 8:34 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Strong retail sales in November contradict other reports showing a slowing economy
The numbers: Sales at U.S. retailers rose a solid 0.3% in November in a good start to the holiday shopping season, suggesting the economy might not be cooling off all that much.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.1% decline in sales. Sales had fallen in October for the first time in seven months.
Economists had a predicted a so-so holiday shopping season, but the November report appears to show that retail sales are track to post an above-average performance.
Retail sales represent about one-third of all consumer spending and usually offer clues on the strength of the economy.
Key details: Sales surged at Internet retailers such as Amazon AMZN, -0.54% as well as stores that sell books, music and other hobby items.
Americans also spent more on clothes, furniture, health- care items and new cars and trucks.
Sales at bars and restaurants were also strong, climbing 1.6% in November.
People go out to eat more when they feel good about their own finances and the broader economy. Restaurant sales are up a sharp 11% in the past year, more than triple the rate of inflation.
Receipts at gasoline stations fell sharply again to hold down the headline number on retail sales. But it’s good news for consumers when they have to spend less on fuel because of cheaper oil prices.
Sales also fell at department stores and home centers such as Home Depot HD, 1.98%.
Retail sales climbed 0.6% when car dealers and gas stations were set aside, giving a better understanding of consumer demand.
Big picture: Consumers can spend enough money to keep the economy growing because of the strongest jobs market in decades.
The unemployment rate sits near a low not seen in more than a half-century. Most people who want a job can find one. And wages are rising faster than inflation again.
Yet high interest rates and still-elevated inflation are costly for consumers, which has taken a toll on the economy. The U.S. is expected to post slower growth in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year.
Looking ahead: “The big jump in retail sales shows that the death of the consumer — as well as the economy — has been greatly exaggerated and the much-hyped recession of 2023 isn’t going to materialize,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Zero hedge believes the move by Powell was due to Biden asking for lower rates during the election year. This is for sure one thought as to why Powell pivoted yesterday. I think another problem has to be the two major banks in Europe with derivative problems: UBS and Deutsche bank as major depositors are gated from taking their money out of their respective banks.
Even Powell’s own mouthpiece, WSJ reporter Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos, was confused remarking sarcastically after the FOMC “what a difference two weeks can make.“
Ok, so let’s take a closer look at the two weeks between Dec 1 and Dec 13 when supposedly everything changed.
What we find is that the main economic events that took place were the ISM Services on Dec 5, the November Payrolls report on Dec 8, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, the CPI report on Dec 12 (and let’s add today’s retail sales data just for additional context).
Turning to each of these in order, we start with the ISM Services report which was a clear beat and rebound from the previous month…
… the jobs report was an impressive beat and also a significant improvement from the previous report…
… not to mention the unemployment rate which came in far below expected and was a big drop from the previous one (the Sahm’s Rule watchers, who were worried it would telegraph an imminent recession, could relax)…
… average hourly earnings also came in hotter than expected (i.e., inflationary)…
… which in turn helped the UMichigan Consumer Sentiment report, which exploded higher from 61.3 to 69.4 (smashing estimates of 62.0)…
… as for the inflation print, well November CPI came in hotter than expected (so contrary to whatever disinflationary trend the Fed may be falling back on to justify its dovishness).
Last but not least was today’s retail sales which came in scorching hot – the 5th consecutive beat in a row – and confirmed that contrary to what the Fed is telegraphing, the US consumer is not only not slowing but supposedly spending much more than Wall Street expected. Maybe Powell did not have that data, but he certainly had access to the same real-time card spending data that Bank of America has, and which allowed to correctly predict just how big of a beat today’s retail sales data would be.
Yet, after all this stronger than expected, improving, or hotter inflation data, Powell made an unexpected 180 pivot on what he said two weeks earlier when the data was generally worse – and less inflationary – than it is today. And as the FOMC ‘pivoted’ in a dovish direction, its impact on markets was profound. Looking at the market this morning, the US 10y yield has plunged nearly 20bps since the decision, the 2y yield a little over 30bps. Markets are now pricing for six cuts of 25bp in 2024, with the first one fully priced in for March.
Yet, clearly, the key driver of the sharp reaction by markets was the fact that Powell decided not to push back against market expectations of early (and significant) cuts for 2024.
And the punchline: although the FOMC hasn’t taken the possibility of further hikes off the table, Powell admitted that the FOMC has started to talk about when to dial back rates, a huge reversal from what he said less than two weeks prior when he claimed that it was “premature” to speculate on rate cuts. He said that the Committee had not worked out the cutting cycle yet, but he did say they would not wait with cutting until inflation was at 2%, because they don’t want to overshoot.
Of course, as we have shown above, none of this overshooting danger was in the recent data; if anything, the data has come in stronger since the start of the month as did inflation, so assuming the same Powell from his Dec 1 appearance at the Spelman College fireside chat was still around, what he should have said is doubling down on that very same message…. instead he did just the opposite.
This, according to Rabobank, basically erodes the importance of any near-term inflation data that would still point to inflation above its target, whilst it elevates those data that support the view that inflation is on its way down. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos tweeted that Powell said that some members even changed their minds halfway through the meeting, when (lower-than-expected) PPI numbers came out.
But as even first-year financial analysts know, what PPI measures more than anything, is commodity input costs, i.e., oil, gasoline, food, and so on… all items the Fed religiously avoids in its preferred inflation measure, the core PCE.
So the picture that emerges is a puzzling one: on one hand with weaker data in hand, the Fed Chair said it was “premature” to talk about rate cuts, yet less than two weeks later, with stronger data in place and with hotter than expected inflation, Powell suddenly flip-flopped 180 degrees, shocking even veteran traders, when supposedly the Fed now was looking at precisely those things (PPI) which it went to great lengths to avoid when inflation was soaring.
Or maybe there is no puzzle at all: maybe what that happened in the past two weeks had nothing to do with economic data, the state of the US consumer, or how hot inflation is running and everything to do with… phone calls from the increasingly angry White House, the same White House which after seeing the latest polling data putting Biden at the biggest disadvantage behind Trump despite the miracle of “Bidenomics”…
… decided to pull its last political level, and had a back room conversation with the Fed Chair, making it very clear that it is in everyone’s best interest if the Fed ends its tightening campaign and informs the market that rate cuts are coming. It certainly would explain why despite keeping the 2026 projected fed funds rate unchanged at 2.875%, the Fed just as unexpectedly decided to pull one full rate cut out of the non-election year 2025 and push it into the pre-election 2024.
Nonsense, the Fed is apolitical, it would never yield to political pressure, you say!?
Well, that dear reader, is bullshit, as even the NYT reminds us in this particular vivid anecdote from 1965 recounting the dramatic interaction between former US president Lyndon B Johnson and then-Fed president William McChesney Martin, when the head of the US central bank – much to LBJ’s displeasure – hiked rates by half a percentage point, infuriating the Democratic president, to wit:
At the Board of Governors meeting that afternoon, he called for a vote to raise the discount rate a half-percentage point, to 4.5 percent. But before the vote, he conceded that raising the rate would essentially wave a red flag before the critics of an independent Federal Reserve, in Congress and in the White House. “We should be under no illusions,” he told his colleagues. “A decision to move now can lead to an important revamping of the Federal Reserve System, including its structure and operating methods. This is a real possibility and I have been turning it over in my mind for months.”
The vote was 4 to 3. Martin cast the deciding ballot.
In Texas, Johnson was enraged. Joseph Califano, an aide (later a cabinet secretary under President Jimmy Carter), recalled Johnson’s “burning up the wires to Washington, asking one member of Congress after another, ‘How can I run the country and the government if I have to read on a news-service ticker that Bill Martin is going to run his own economy?’”
Martin was summoned to explain why he had defied the president.
Martin flew down to the Johnson Ranch on Monday, Dec. 6, along with Fowler and other advisers. The president met them at an airstrip behind the wheel of his Lincoln convertible. They piled in and he drove them to the house.
There, Johnson got Martin alone and did not mince words. According to different accounts, the 6-foot-4 Johnson pushed the shorter Martin up against a wall.
“You went ahead and did something that you knew I disapproved of, that can affect my entire term here,” Johnson said, as Martin recalled later in an oral history. “You took advantage of me and I’m not going to forget it, because here I am, a sick man. You’ve got me into a position where you can run a rapier into me and you’ve run it.”
“Martin, my boys are dying in Vietnam, and you won’t print the money I need,” he said.
Martin stood his ground. He pointed out that he had given the president fair warning that a raise was coming. More broadly, he insisted that he and the president had different jobs to do, that the Federal Reserve Act gave the Fed responsibility over interest rates.
“I knew you disapproved of it, but I had to call the shot as I saw it,” he said.
The two eventually stepped outside and tried to assure reporters that any differences had been patched up. Their sour expressions, captured in newspapers the next day, suggested otherwise.
Ironically, in the end LBJ got what he wanted as the next episode from the NYT reveals:
… in 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson, who wanted cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society, summoned Fed chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch. There, after asking other officials to leave the room, Johnson reportedly shoved Martin against the wall as he demanding that the Fed once again hold down interest rates. Martin caved, the Fed printed money, and inflation kept climbing until the early 1980s.
Almost 60 years later, Powell decided not to “call the shot as he saw it” just two weeks ago, and instead of being shoved against the wall by Biden’s thugs, to instead capitulate what little credibility the Fed had just so Biden’s odds of getting reelected in 2024 were ever so fractionally higher…
END
Senator Rubio calls out woke companies: they boycott Twitter but still remain on Chinese owned Tik Tok
(Fang/EpochTimes)
Republican Senator Calls Out Companies For Remaining On TikTok While Boycotting X
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) criticized companies including Comcast and Disney for having a double standard, over their recent decision to boycott American social media app X but not Chinese-owned TikTok.
In letters sent to the chief executive officers of 18 companies on Dec. 12, Mr. Rubio, a senior member of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, said his office had conducted a review and found their boycott “originated with the left-wing advocacy group, Media Matters.” X, formerly Twitter, has filed a lawsuit against the non-profit for defamation, for charging the platform with promoting pro-Nazi content.
“Supposedly, companies are boycotting X out of concern that their brands could be tarnished by association with antisemitic content that some users have posted on that application,” the senator wrote.
Mr. Rubio emphasized that he takes “no position” on whether companies should boycott X. However, he believes that companies should recognize how their brand is tarnished by being on TikTok if they are concerned about their public image.
“Due to your company’s apparent concern for its image on social media, I was fascinated to learn that it maintains an active presence on TikTok. That social media application, through its parent company, ByteDance, is under the jurisdiction and influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a brutal group that seeks to weaken our country and subvert our way of life,” he added.
Mr. Rubio’s letters were sent to Airbnb, Amazon, Apple, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Disney, Google, IBM, Jack in the Box, Lionsgate, Microsoft, Netflix, Paramount, Sony Pictures, Uber, Walmart, Warner Bros. Discovery, and the Washington Post.
The White House, U.S. armed forces, and more than 30 U.S. states have already banned TikTok. New York City joined the ban in August saying the Chinese app “posed a security threat to the city’s technical networks.”
Earlier this year, FBI Director Christopher Wray said TikTok “screams” of national security risks.
In his letter, Mr. Rubio detailed different reasons that Americans should not use TikTok.
“China’s national-security laws give the CCP access to all data managed by Chinese firms, including ByteDance. This means TikTok is a far bigger liability to your company than X, and should be treated accordingly,” Mr. Rubio wrote.
‘Double Standard’
He added that TikTok content glorifying the Hamas terrorist group “exploded on the platform” since Oct. 7, the day Hamas terrorists invaded southern Israel.
“Millions of users have also been exposed to videos glorifying Osama bin Laden and his post-9/11 manifesto,” Mr. Rubio added. “This content furthers the CCP’s strategy of distracting, dividing, and dumbing down Americans, giving the CCP an open field to pursue its objectives.”
While the United States has stepped up its efforts to counter threats posed by the CCP, the Chinese regime is “playing the long game” to infiltrate U.S. politics at every level. The communist regime is using different methods of subversion and unrestricted warfare to undermine America.
On Dec. 12, the House Select Committee on the CCP issued a report, recommending that the United States “reset” its relationship with China by raising tariffs and cutting off capital flows.
Mr. Rubio also pointed to past media reports, including a 2022 report by Forbes, revealing that ByteDance employees used TikTok to improperly track American journalists.
“The company’s CEO blatantly lied under oath when he denied that TikTok stores U.S. user data in China, providing further evidence that the application and its founder cannot be trusted,” Mr. Rubio added.
In March, Shou Zi Chew, TikTok’s CEO, refused to take a position on whether the CCP has persecuted Uyghurs, during a congressional hearing. Several countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have declared China’s treatment of Uyghurs as “genocide” and “crimes against humanity.”
“I take no position on whether your company should boycott X. You have advertising executives, shareholders, and customers to tell you that,” Mr. Rubio wrote.
“However, I am appalled by the double standard of boycotting an American social-media application while maintaining a presence on a social-media application controlled by America’s greatest adversary.
“If your company believes it is necessary to cut ties with X, I expect you to cut ties with TikTok, as well—and soon,” he wrote.
The Epoch Times has contacted the 18 companies for comment.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
A MUST MUST READ….
(VDH)
Victor Davis Hanson: Civilization Versus The New Nihilists
Nihilism is the religion of the Left. Anarchy is now at the core of the new Democratic Party.
If the Left wished radically to alter the demography of the U.S., it could have expanded legal immigration through legislation or the courts.
Instead, it simply erased the border and dynamited federal immigration law.
By fiat, nihilists ended the wall, and stopped detaining and deporting illegal aliens altogether.
Or was it worse than that when candidate Joe Biden in September 2019 urged would-be illegal aliens to “surge” the border?
As a result, through laxity and entitlement incentives, eight-million illegal entrants have swarmed the southern border under the Biden administration.
They are swamping border towns, bankrupting big-city budgets, and infuriating even Democratic constituencies.
The same nihilism applies to crime.
In the old days liberals gave light sentences to criminals or reduced bail. But today leftist prosecutors do not even seek bail. They hardly prosecute theft or random assaults.
Criminals are arrested and released the same day. Is the nihilist plan to destroy the entire body of American jurisprudence, and to ensure “equity” in being victimized?
Is the woke idea that all Americans—inclusive of diverse Beverly Hills elites, Hollywood celebrities, or members of Congress alike—must share victim equity, and thus experience first-hand street robbery, car-jacking, smash-and-grab, and home invasion?
The United States can produce annually more natural gas and oil than any nation on earth. It once pioneered nuclear power. It has vast coal reserves and sophisticated hydroelectric plants.
The old idea was to use these unmatched resources to transition gradually to other cleaner fuels such as hydrogen, fusion power, solar, and wind. That way consumers would still enjoy affordable energy. And the United States could remain independent of coercion by the oil-producing Middle East.
But that was not the nihilist way.
Instead, the left deliberately cut back on pipelines, new energy leases, and fracking. It bragged of an upcoming ban on fossil fuels. In drought-stricken, energy-short California, the state is blowing up, not building new dams.
Is the nihilist agenda to punish with bankrupcy the energy-using middle class?
Is the hope that Americans will have to beg the Saudis, Iranians, Venezuelans, and Russians to pump more of the hated goo for our benefit so we would not have to dirty ourselves helping ourselves?
When Joe Biden entered office in January 2021 the U.S. was naturally rebounding from more than a year of Covid-enforced lockdowns.
Overtaxed supply chains were still fragile. Pent-up demand was soaring. Consumers were flush with government cash. Trillions of dollars had been printed and infused into the economy to ward off a feared recession.
All economists advised not to increase the deficit, spike further consumer demand, and expand entitlements.
Instead the Left did just the opposite.
Four-trillion dollars were printed and distributed. In no time, Americans, recovering from Covid, next experienced the worst, but entirely preventable, inflation in 40 years.
Three years later prices on staples remain 30-40 percent higher than when Biden took office. Mortgage rates tripled.
Abroad the nihilism is even more inexplicable and terrifying.
All nations suffer military setbacks. But none in memory have shamefully hightailed out of a theater as we did from Afghanistan.
Few countries could even imagine discarding billions of dollars of weapons and hardware into the hands of the terrorist Taliban, or abandoning a $1 billion new embassy, and a huge, remodeled air base.
Why did the administration simply allow a huge Chinese spy balloon to float and photograph leisurely over the continental U.S.?
Naïve countries might endure two or three attacks on their overseas bases without serious retaliation. But how could the U.S. military permit 135 rocket barrages by Iranian-supplied terrorists on American soldiers without a major and sustained response?
Is the point to humiliate our own troops? To destroy what is left of U.S. deterrence?
Popular culture is especially captive to leftist nihilism.
It is not enough to object to a statue or artwork. Instead, without deliberation or public input, they must be defaced or destroyed, all the better stealthily and by night.
After the massacres of October 7—but well before Israel had even responded to the barbaric invasion—thousands of students swarmed their elite universities cheering on the violence.
And what so exhilarated them?
The nihilist, ghoulish beheading, torture, mutilation, mass rape, dismemberment, and necrophilia of unarmed, civilian Israeli elderly, women, children, and infants.
In sum, we are witnessing an epidemic of leftist nihilism similar to the 16th-century European mad wave of iconoclastic destruction of religious art.
Or is the better parallel the suicidal insanity that Mao Zedong unleashed during his cultural revolution of the 1960s?
The old politics of right versus left, and Republican opposed to Democrat have now given way to a new existential struggle: Americans must choose between civilization—or its destroyers.
GOP-led House passes Biden impeachment inquiry resolution
The GOP-led House passed an impeachment inquiry resolution against President Biden Wednesday on the House floor.
The final vote was 221-212.
House Republican leaders have said the Biden Administration and Hunter Biden himself are refusing to cooperate with their investigation into the Biden family’s foreign business dealings.
“This vote will allow the House Judiciary, Oversight and Ways and Means committees to continue their investigations. The evidence mounting against the president cannot be ignored,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told reporters on Wednesday.
“We know Joe Biden has lied to or misled the American people about his knowledge of his son’s business dealings over and over again, and it is very likely that he was involved in and benefited from his family’s corrupt business dealings as well,” he added.
Hunter Biden came to Capitol Hill on Wednesday to make a public statement critical of the investigation into his foreign business deals. He did not show up for a private deposition.
end
Trump Demands Action After 20% Of Mail-in Voters Admit To Fraud In 2020 Election Survey
The Heartland/Rasmussen poll, released on Dec. 12, suggests concerning levels of voter fraud in the 2020 election, bolstering President Trump’s longstanding claim that he was cheated out of a victory amid an explosion in mail-in ballots combined with state-level moves by the courts that made it easier to cheat.
The new survey shows 17 percent of mail-in voters admitting to voting in a state where they are no longer permanent residents; 21 percent filling out ballots for others; 17 percent signing ballots for family members without consent, and 8 percent reporting offers of “pay” or “reward” for their vote.
What’s more, 10 percent of all respondents to the survey (carried on a representative sample of 1,085 likely voters) said they know a friend, family member, co-worker, or other acquaintance who admitted to casting a mail-in ballot fraudulently.
Over 43 percent of 2020 votes were cast by mail, which is the highest percentage in U.S. history.
“Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who cast mail-in ballots,” the Heartland Institute, a conservative and libertarian public policy think tank, said in a statement.
‘Biggest Story of The Year’
President Trump, who is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in the 2024 race for the White House, took to social media to call on Republicans to take action in response to the survey’s shocking results.
“This is the biggest story of the year, and Republicans must do something about it,” the former president wrote. Further, he suggested that unless something is done quickly to address the problem of voter fraud, the issue will cast a pall over the 2024 election.
“Have to make a move now,” President Trump continued. “Get tough, get smart. Our country is being stolen!“
While Democrats and their allies claim that election fraud is little more than a myth, President Trump has said for years that voter fraud is a pervasive problem in U.S. politics —and insists he was robbed of a win in the 2020 election.
In a recent interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the former president spoke about what went into his decision to challenge the results.
“I was listening to different people. And when I added it all up, the election was rigged,” he said, adding that it was his choice to contest the results because “I won the election.”
‘Nothing Short of Stunning’
While Democrats and their allies, along with some in the scientific community, argue that voter fraud was so small in the 2020 elections as to be negligible, the findings of the Heartland/Rasmussen survey bolster President Trump’s claims that he was robbed of victory.
Justin Haskins, the director of Heartland’s Socialism Research Center and primary author of the Heartland/Rasmussen survey, said in a statement that the results of the poll are “nothing short of stunning.”
“For the past three years, Americans have repeatedly been told that the 2020 election was the most secure in history. But if this poll’s findings are reflective of reality, the exact opposite is true,” Mr. Haskins said. “This conclusion isn’t based on conspiracy theories or suspect evidence, but rather from the responses made directly by the voters themselves.”
Some progress has been made on election integrity measures in over a dozen states in the aftermath of the 2020 election, Mr. Haskins acknowledged. He insisted, however, that “much more” work is needed in most parts of the country to bolster the integrity of elections—and voter confidence that the results reflect the actual will of the people.
“If America’s election laws do not improve soon, voters and politicians will continue to question the truthfulness and fairness of all future elections,” Mr. Haskins said.
Some states have reformed their laws and procedures amid widespread vote integrity worries prompted by the 2020 presidential election controversy. However, according to conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation, more needs to be done.
The group’s Election Integrity Scorecard shows that not a single state in the country has a perfect score in a checklist of 12 possible problem spots, including voter ID, accuracy of voter registration lists, and absentee ballot management.
Tennessee has the best election integrity procedures in the country, with a score of 88 (out of a possible 100), followed by Georgia at 84, Alabama at 82, and Missouri at 83.
Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, recently wrote that “no state in the country has a perfect score of 100, which means everyone has some work to do.”
In order to make elections more secure and build shore-up public confidence that the declared results are legitimate, states should ensure that election officials maintain current, accurate voter rolls, he argues.
Further, they should require photo identification to cast a vote, both in person and absentee, according to Mr. Von Spakovsky, who also argues for a ban on partisan funding of state and local election offices.
He pointed to the Heritage Foundation’s Election Fraud Database as a constantly updated record of various cases of voter fraud from across the country.
“In an era of razor-thin elections, guarding against this type of illegal behavior, as well as errors made by election officials, is especially important,” he wrote.
“In 2024, it could prove critical.“
end
Biden Scores Win As Supreme Court Throws Out Federal COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Cases
In unsigned rulings, the justices said that rulings against mandates imposed by President Biden and the U.S. military have been vacated.
They also remanded the cases back to lower courts with instructions for the courts to vacate preliminary injunctions that had been in place against the administration as moot.
The decisions mean that the rulings won’t act as precedent in future vaccine mandate cases.
“We believe the United States Constitution clearly does not permit the federal government to force federal workers—or any law abiding citizen—to inject their bodies with something against their will. In fact, the freedom to control your own body and your own medical information is so basic that, without those liberties, it is impossible to truly be ‘free’ at all,” Marcus Thornton, president of Feds for Freedom, said in a statement. “We are disappointed that the Supreme Court dodged these important Constitutional arguments and instead chose to vacate our case on technicalities.“
One case was brought by Feds for Freedom and involved President Biden’s mandate for federal employees. The mandate was imposed in 2021, with the president claiming that vaccination was the “best way to slow the spread of COVID-19” and that requiring vaccination would “promote the health and safety of the federal workforce and the efficiency of the civil service.”
An appeals court this year reinforced a preliminary injunction entered by a lower court, ruling that the court system—not a board composed of people appointed by the president—has jurisdiction over the case.
U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown had ruled previously that the president lacked the authority to impose the vaccine mandate.
Another case was brought by a federal worker who recovered from COVID-19 and thus enjoyed some protection against the illness but was still being forced to receive a vaccination under President Biden’s mandate because the government refused to formally recognize the post-infection protection. Jason Payne, the worker, said the mandate exceeded President Biden’s authority.
In the third case, federal judges ruled that the U.S. Air Force’s handling of its mandate was illegal, and prevented the branch from taking disciplinary action against members who had requested religious exemptions.
Government lawyers urged the Supreme Court to rule the decisions in these cases as moot, given that the vaccine mandates wereended.
“Consistent with this court’s ordinary practice under such circumstances, the court should grant the petition for a writ of certiorari, vacate the judgment below, and remand with instructions to direct the district court to dismiss its order granting a preliminary injunction as moot,” the lawyers wrote in one petition to the court.
Mr. Payne’s lawyers also asked for the decisions to be ruled as moot, after two courts ruled against him and following the rescinding of the mandate that affected him.
Lawyers for the other federal workers and for the military members opposed the request.
The government was asking the Supreme Court to endorse a “heads we win, tails you get vacated” version of a previous court decision, United States v. Munsingwear, lawyers for the federal workers wrote in one brief. If granted, the government would be able to “litigate to the hilt in both district and circuit court and—only if they lose—then decline to seek substantive review from this court and instead moot the case and ask this court to erase the circuit court loss from the books,” according to the brief.
Lawyers for the military members noted that Congress forced the military to rescind its mandate, but that the legislation didn’t prevent the Department of Defense from issuing another mandate.
Government lawyers said the mandates were rescinded because the pandemic situation had changed, not because they were challenged. They also argued that the mandates “cannot be reasonably expected to recur.”
Lawyers for the military members said that the claim was “in serious tension” with the demand to vacate the rulings under the Munsingwear precedent, given that the purpose of such a move “is to clear the path for future re-litigation without res judicata concerns.”
None of the Supreme Court justices except for Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who was appointed by President Biden, explained their decisions on the cases.
“Although I would require that the party seeking vacatur establish equitable entitlement to that remedy, I accede to vacatur here based on the court’s established practice when the mootness occurs through the unilateral action of the party that prevailed in the lower court,” she said in regard to Mr. Payne’s case.
In the two other cases, Justice Jackson said that the government hadn’t “established equitable entitlement” to vacatur, but that she concurred with the overall judgment from her colleagues.
She cited a Dec. 5 decision in which the court ruled against a civil rights activist who sought a ruling that would force hotels to make information for disabled people publicly available.
Justice Jackson sided with the majority in that ruling but contested the majority’s decision to vacate a lower court ruling, arguing that vacatur—or the setting aside of the judgment—shouldn’t be granted automatically.
“Automatic vacatur plainly flouts the requirement of an individualized, circumstance-driven fairness evaluation, which, as I have explained, is the hallmark of an equitable remedy,” she wrote.
It’s also “flatly inconsistent with our common-law tradition of case-by-case adjudication, which ‘assumes that judicial decisions are valuable and should not be cast aside lightly,'” Justice Jackson said, quoting from yet another ruling.
“As a general matter, I believe that a party who claims equitable entitlement to vacatur must explain what harm—other than having to accept the law as the lower court stated it—flows from the inability to appeal the lower court decision.”
end
they must get rid of her or else no student of substance will be heading to Harvard
(zerohedge)
“I Am Angry”: Black Scholar Who Says Harvard Prez Plagiarized Her Work Is Livid As 5th Example Emerges
THURSDAY, DEC 14, 2023 – 09:40 AM
Harvard President Claudine Gay has now been caught plagiarizing five academic papers – nearly half of her entire scholarly output – something which would result in the according to journalist Christopher Rufo.
One of the academics who was plagiarized, former professor Carol Swain, is pissedafter Harvard gave Gay a pass on what would have resulted in severe punishment and/or expulsion for anyone else, as Townhall reports.
“I rarely get angry, but I am angry,” she wrote on X. “[R]ight now about the racial double standards that are TEMPORARILY giving #ClaudineGay an opportunity to resign. White progressives created her and white progressives are protecting her. The rest of us have had to work our rear ends off to achieve success. Some get it handed to them.”
Rufo interviewed Swain, who said thatthe plagiarism went far beyond a few paragraphs – and that Gay’s “whole research agenda, her whole career, was based on my work.”
“She became president of Harvard and got recognition as being its first black president. I don’t believe her record warranted tenure, and I believe that I had to meet a much higher standard than she did,” she told Rufo, adding “Something changed in the mid-1990s, [when] we were having a big affirmative action debate.”
Rufo asked Swain what she thought would happen to a white person under these circumstances, to which she replied “A white male would probably already be gone.”
Harvard announced that Gay would keep her job after a week of calls for her ouster, first, regarding her refusal to condemn calls for violence against Jews on campus, and then, after the plagiarism accusations broke. Despite a donor revolt spearheaded by billionaire Bill Ackman, a petition signed by 700 faculty members on Gay’s behalf won in the end.
Meanwhile, a fifth example of plagiarism by Gay was revealed by Rufoon Wednesday.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report December 14, 2023 Issue 7039
Independent View of the News
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: US financial conditions are the most accommodative they’ve been since the Fed started hiking rates last year, according to the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions index. https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1734876182204592295
According to the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index, 525bps of Fed tightening via 11 hikes, commenced on March 22, 2022, were eradicated in one single month (November)!
As we expected, and positioned our holdings accordingly, Powell caved into the dictates of Team Obama apparatchiks on the Fed – with a critical 2024 Election looming.
The Fed, despite a bubbling stock market and soaring bonds, held rates steady and indicated, via member median projections, that Fed Funds will fall to 4.6% (three 25bps cuts) by Dec. 2024. Rate projections for the end of 2024 varied greatly. But the Obama-packed Fed has taken control of the FOMC. “Eight officials saw fewer than three quarter-point cuts next year, while five anticipated none.” (BBG)
After months of proclaiming that the tightening of financial conditions prevented Fed rate hikes, the Fed proved that it is full of Schiff by ignoring the record easing of financial conditions in November.
The financial media went gaga over the FOMC Communique and heralded that the Fed Pivot.
FOMC Communique HighlightsFOMC Median Forecast Shows 75bps of Rate Cuts in 2024 to 4.6% (3.6% at 12/25)Fed Will Access Extent of ‘Any’ Additional Firming NeededFed Says Inflation ‘Eased’ over Past Year but Remains ElevatedFOMC Median 2024 Unemployment Projection Unchanged at 4.1%FOMC Median 2024 Core PCE Forecasts Decline to 2.4%FOMC Median 2024 Growth Projection at 1.4% vs. Prior 1.5%Tighter Financial, Credit Conditions to Weigh on Economy (Total Bullschiff!)Vote to keep Fed Funds at 5.25%-5.50% was unanimousSee US GDP at 2.6% in 2023, 1.4% in 2024, 1.8% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026FOMC Remains Highly Attentive to Inflation Riskshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20231213a1.pdf
Stocks, bonds, and commodities soared, but the dollar plunged, after the FOMC Communique was released. The DJIA hit a new all-time high; gold jumped as much as +2.2%. If inflation reignites in 2024, the Fed should be toast! Congress should enact major reforms at the Fed.
Powell Press Conference HighlightsPowell says US Inflation Is Still Too HighFOMC ‘proceeding carefully’Policy has moved well into restrictive territoryFull effects of tightening have likely not yet been feltStrong job creation has come with increase in supply of workersWe have significantly tightened monetary policy (But no financial conditions, Jerome!)Inflation has eased with no significant rise in unemploymentNominal wage growth has been easingWe believe policy is at or near peak of cycleParticipants did NOT want to take possibility of further rate hikes off the tableFocus Is Still How High to Raise Policy GrowthNo one is declaring victory (on inflation)FOMC discussed timing of when rate cuts may come (in an election year, Jerome?)“There’s little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.”“We don’t think about political events (when asks about 2024 Election and rate cuts).”We think we have done enough (rate hikes).“Some Fed officials changed their forecasts after the PPI numbers were released on Wednesday” US November PPI unchanged m/m & 0.9% y/y, 0.0% m/m % 1.0% y/y expected; Core PPI 0.0% m/m & 2.0% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 2.2% y/y consensus
Yes, Virginia, many of Powell’s comments were contradictory, deceitful, and rank lies. Remember “higher for longer?” It was total bullschiff. Of course, the 2024 Election is critical for leftists.
Powell, possibly inadvertently, condemned Fed members’ forecasting ability: “A very high proportion of forecasters were expecting very weak growth or a recession. Not only did that not happen, we actually had a very strong year.”
On December 1, Powell stated, “It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.” Yesterday (Dec. 13), Powell said the Fed has discussed rate cuts. The only material change was that financial conditions got even easier because bonds and stocks continued to rally. Who got to Jerome?
Advisor to 6 POTUS Harald Malmgren @Halsrethink: Throughout 2023 Fed Chair Powell repeatedly declared he would not be remembered as “another Arthur Burns”. But today, by not pushing back on market expectations for multiple 2024 rate cuts, he inadvertently confirmed Arthur Burns similarity by encouraging sooner & more 2024 rate cuts! Arthur Burns is not well remembered, but I worked with Nixon and therefore had personal interaction with him. I liked him, and was sorry for him handed the adverse consequences of LBJ’s failures to address squarely guns vs butter decisions as Vietnam consumed his options (What Biden is doing now)
@zerohedge: The political Fed (Rate cut/hike chart) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1735027532926202323 @Geiger_Capital (12:03 ET): *Yellen Says ‘Natural’ for Fed to Lower Rates as Inflation FallsAt what point does Powell grow a pair and say that he’s the Fed Chair, not Yellen. Yellen in total control… Powell tucked his tail and now risks becoming Arthur Burns 2.0. 15:08 ET
Jim Grant: We’ve yet to Feel the Full Consequences of the “Era of Free Money” I think that the consequences of more or less 10 years of proverbially free money are going to play out in the credit markets.”… Grant is describing a long-term trend of high inflation, low economic growth and high interest rates — in a nutshell — stagflation… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-weve-yet-feel-full-consequences-era-free-money
Xi Disappoints Investors by Skipping Signal for Big StimulusParty leaders say China is facing ‘weak expectations’They call for development of ‘strategic emerging sectors’China’s top leaders including President Xi Jinping vowed to make industrial policy their top economic priority next year, a letdown for investors hoping to see more forceful stimulus to boost growth… The ruling Communist Party’s annual economic work conference made building a “modern industrial system” its No. 1 goal, up a place from last year. The priority for 2023 was boosting domestic demand, which fell to the second spot as policymakers put greater emphasis on developing cutting-edge technology and artificial intelligence… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-wraps-key-economic-meeting-110109649.html
Chinese Stocks Fall as Key Economic Meeting DisappointsMajor benchmarks slip after annual economic work conferenceTraders had looked to the meeting for stronger stimulus signsChinese stocks fell as a key economic meeting disappointed investors with its lack of emphasis on fixing real estate woes or offering greater stimulus. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost as much as 0.9%, with developers Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. and China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. among the worst performers. The CSI 300 benchmark of onshore shares slid 0.8%… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-stocks-fall-key-economic-014937300.html
Pfizer shares tumble (To 10-yr low) on disappointing 2024 profit outlook The company, which reported more than $100 billion in revenue in 2022 due to the lift from Covid-19 vaccine and therapeutic sales, sees 2024 revenues of between $58.5 billion and $61.5 billion, according to its presentation… Pfizer, which reported $44.3 billion in revenues through the first three quarters of 2023, includes only about $8 billion in expected revenues for vaccine Comirnaty and therapeutic Paxlovid in 2024… https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-shares-tumble-disappointing-2024-165146996.html
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA hit an all-time high; bonds are soaring; the Fed has gone into the tank for Biden USHs closed +2 5/32
Negative aspects of previous session The Fed confirmed that it is exceedingly political and is now led by leftist Obama apparatchiks Jerome Powell is now an iteration of Arthur Burns The Fed has fostered a new financial bubble and gold secular bull market There will be hell to pay for the Fed’s egregious politically-based policies Spot Gold was +2.43% ($2027.74) at 17:41 ET. WTI Oil jumped 1.84%; gasoline soared 3.02%
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How high will the equity bull soar? Has another commodity bull market commenced?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4631.91 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4709.69; 4643.23
Today – The S&P 500 peaked (4709.69) at 15:06 ET. It then sank to 4683.44 at 15:25. The usual late manipulation pushed the index to 4707.09 at the NYSE close. Due to the robust rally this week, stocks are grossly overbought and could retrench at any moment. However, US stocks are in yet another bubble.
@BittelJulien: US equities on a P/S basis just hit its highest level on record at 2.7X. Trading in the 100th percentile of its historical distribution over 40 years. US stocks are record overvalued. https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1329011395002839046
Stocks will continue to soar until they blow off or a fundamental pin appears. Normally, recession or escalating inflation would be the pins. However, Team Obama-Biden has been fudging US economic data for the past few years. In an election year, they will doctor US economic data even more. Equity types have been beyond irrational exuberance for months. We are now beyond that.
The Fed forecasts three 25bp rate cuts in 2024; the exuberant market sees 140bps of rate cuts in 2024.
Expected economic data: Nov Retail Sales -0.1% m/m, Ex-Autos -0.1%, Ex-Autos & Gas +0.2%; Initial Jobless Claims 220k (Dec. 9), Continuing Claims (Dec. 2) 1.881m; Nov Import Price Index -0.7% m/ and -2.1% y/y, Export Price Index -1.0% m/m & -5.2% y/y; Oct Business Inventories -0.1% m/m
ESHs are +17.50 (beyond euphoria now); USHs are +14/32; and Feb AU is +48.40 at 20:40 ET. If US stocks soar early in the NYSE session, be alert for a hard reversal a some point later.
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4401; 100-day MA: 4424; 150-day MA: 4392; 200-day MA: 4306 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,367; 100-day MA: 34,531; 150-day MA: 34,305; 200-day MA: 34,008 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3919.56 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4315.44 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4553.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4621.15 triggers a sell signal
@GOPoversight (17:51 ET): The House Has Passed the Impeachment Inquiry Resolution (along party lines). With this vote, we are now in better legal standing to fight the White House’s obstruction.
Oversight Committee @GOPoversight: HOLDING HUNTER BIDEN IN CONTEMPT Hunter Biden defied a lawful subpoena today, and we will now initiate contempt of Congress proceedings. There will be no special treatment because his last name is Biden. Joe Biden & his family must be held accountable for their corruption.
Yesterday, Hunter Biden’s attorney Abbe Lowell set up a podium on Capitol Hill and had Hunter publicly proclaim his and The Big Guy’s innocence without the presentation of evidence or cross examination. It looked like a transparent attempt to sway public opinion and influence a jury pool.
@JonathanTurley: Reports indicate that Hunter went to Capitol Hill but refused to sit for the deposition.Instead he held a presser. If true, it is a remarkably bad decision and virtually begs for a contempt sanction. Hunter could have appeared and invoked his right to remain silent. Instead, he just pulled a Steve Bannon and it will now pressure AG Merrick Garland to show the same speed in pursuing a prosecution… For a court, Abbe Lowell just staged the worst possible optics. He held a presser just steps away from a committee waiting to hear from him. I cannot imagine the legal rationale for such a stunt. It is virtual legal self-immolation
GOP @RepBarryMoore: Hunter Biden expects the same special treatment he received from the DOJ, IRS, and FBI. No more sweetheart deals. He refused to answer our questions, so we’re going to initiate contempt of Congress proceedings.
@paulsperry_: House sources say that Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell–as a member of the Judiciary Committee, which subpoenaed Hunter Biden–“aided and abetted” a crime this morning when he worked with Hunter’s lawyer Abbe Lowell to help Hunter flout the subpoena in contempt of Congress
@alx: Biden when previously asked about people defying Congressional subpoenas: Q: “Mr. President, what’s your message to people who defy Congressional subpoenas… Should they be prosecuted by the Justice Department?” Biden: “Yes” https://twitter.com/alx/status/1735028626377027615
Hunter’s stunt on Capitol Hill came moments before the House began debate on impeaching his dada.
@paulsperry_: Now w/ full authority to investigate Joe Biden for impeachable offenses, House Judiciary Chair Jordan indicated he will reissue subpoena to Hunter Biden to sit for transcribed interview & if he doesn’t comply this time, he’ll go to court & initiate contempt proceedings.
@bennyjohnson: @RepMTG snaps after Hunter Biden DEFIES House GOP subpoena:“I would’ve liked to ask Hunter Biden about the MANN act violations. Sex trafficking women across state lines. That would have been a good question— you don’t seem to care about that!” https://t.co/Vss1N5vFyB
@paulsperry_: Ex-federal agent (DEA) John Moynihan has filed DOJ whistleblower complaint against Trump indictor Jack Smith, claiming Smith was “an active participant in a scheme to extort millions of dollars from wealthy individuals targeted for investigation a/o prosecution [in Kosovo]” (Complaint at link) https://www.deepcapture.com/wp-content/uploads/Finalized_Complaint_COMPRESSED.pdf
@julie_kelly2: Supreme Court will review 1512(c)(2), obstruction of an official proceeding case.This is felony used against 300+ J6ers and represents half of Jack Smith’s indictment against Trump.If SCOTUS determines DOJ has misused the statute…will be a game changer.My explainer: https://realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2023/
The judge presiding over the federal election interference case against former President Trump halts all proceedings pending the outcome of his appeal arguing he’s protected by presidential immunity: NBC
@RNCResearch: Nancy Pelosi says Republicans are responsible for war crimes against the Ukrainian people.She says nothing of the human trafficking, sexual violence, and crimes against children that happen at our open southern border every single day. https://t.co/95y7eJ5Wmr
@simonateba: Radical far-left Congresswoman @AOC claims Hunter Biden is complying with the subpoena by standing outside the Capitol building, says he’s there, he just doesn’t want to testify in secret, he’s complying. https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1734979113234915425
As we keep harping, decades of allowing Dems (Dem privilege) to lie and say stupid Schiff encouraged Dems to increase the frequency and magnitude of their lying and uttering stupid Schiff.
Daily Mail: French schoolgirl, 12, threatens to kill teacher with a knife and has to be physically restrained in classroom days after Muslim pupils shown painting of nude women left tutor scared for her lifehttps://trib.al/Z6JnmpR
Megyn Kelly calls for boycott of Taylor Swift after she attends Gaza fundraiser comedy showhttps://trib.al/6F7miTR
Boston’s woke Democrat Mayor Michelle Wu plans secret no WHITES Christmas partyhttps://trib.al/drRA9YH
Daily Mail: IllinoisNAACP president faces calls to quit over conference call where she branded migrants ‘rapist savages’ who are taking resources from black and homeless peoplehttps://t.co/Q047JEmiRz
Copenhagen Police and PET hold a press briefing on coordinated police action, in Copenhagen, Denmark, Thursday 14 December 2023 (credit: RITZAU SCANPIX/MARTIN SYLVEST VIA REUTERS)
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