DEC 28/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $8.35 TO $2073.35//SILVER WAS DOWN $.25 TO $24.11//PLATINUM WAS UP $8.80 TO $1007.30//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $19.65 TO $1137,60//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM SCHIFFGOLD/ GOOD COMMENTARY TONIGHT ON THE HIGH PRICE OF RICE THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//CHINA SOUNDS THE ALARM BELL ON TAIWAN TO WHICH BIDEN DOES NOTHING//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//WEST BANK UPDATES//HEZBOLLAH AND LEBANON VS ISRAEL UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER///SLAY NEWS ETC//MAYORS ACROSS MAJOR USA CITIES SCREAM AT BIDEN TO STOP AS THEY CANNOT FUND ILLEGAL IMMIGERANTS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 38 737 C ADVANTAGE 39 905 C ADM 1 991 H CME 1
TOTAL: 40 40 MONTH TO DATE: 15,134
JPMorgan stopped 38/40 contracts.
FOR DEC.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2023. CONTRACT: 40 NOTICES FOR 4000 OZ or 0.1244 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,134 contracts for 1,513,400 oz (47.073 tonnes)
FOR DEC:
SILVER NOTICES 23 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 115,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4051 for 20,255,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: V/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 438.265 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 1685 CONTRACTS TO 133,103 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.20 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (WITH HUGE SHORT COVERING BUT AT HIGHER PRICES) AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A HUGE 1069 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1069CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.20), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2081 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED 229 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1,5 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 185,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON + 0 CONTRACTS OF EX. FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //NEW TOTAL STANDING 20.255 MILLION OZ.+0 MILLION OZ (EX. FOR RISK TODAY) + 6.5 MILLION EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR= NEW TOTAL OF 26.755 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 26.755 MILLION OZ
//MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1069 CONTRACTS)/
0 CONTRACT EX.FOR RISK =0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL FOR EX. FOR RISK + 6.5 MILLION OZ.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED – 167CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 days, total 13,003 contracts: OR 65.015MILLION OZ (684 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 65.015 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 65.015 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1685CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 229 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC. OF 18.755 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 185,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON /NEW TOTAL STANDING 20.255MILLION OZ//+0 MILLION EX. FOR RISK TODAY + 6.5 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 26.755 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING 26.755 million OZ /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1914OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1069CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION WITH HUGE SHORT CAPITULATION FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1069 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 23 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 115,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9,770 CONTRACTS TO 501,113 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -removed 246 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 12,027 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $23.25 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LIGHT INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC.. AT 44.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 ISSUANCE OF EX. FOR RISK CONTRACTS // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR DEC SO FAR INCREASES TO 51.707 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $23.25 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,027 OI CONTRACTS (37.409)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2257CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 501,113
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,027 CONTRACTS WITH 9,770 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2257EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,027 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAYFOR 0.0 TONNES/EX FOR RISK PRIOR = 4.634 TOTAL //NEW TOTAL STANDING 47.073 TONNES + 4.634 TONNES= 51.707 TONNES.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1803CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2257CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (10,016) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,027 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 44.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 4.634 TONNES EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW STANDING 51.707 TONNES / / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH HUGE SHORT LIQUIDATION//CAPITULATION 4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1803CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 67,049 CONTRACTS OR 6,704,900 OZ OR 208.550 TONNES IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3528 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 208.55 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 208.55/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.89% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 208.55 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,564.42 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF DEC. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 1685CONTRACTS OI TO 133,103 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 229 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 229 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 229 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1852 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 229 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1914CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.570 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.09 PTS OR 1.38% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 418.69 PTSOR 2.52% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 141.62 PTS OR 0.42% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .71% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1024 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1029 /Oil DOWN TO 73.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.54/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9770 CONTRACTS TO 501,113 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH HUGE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING WEDNESDAY’S RISE IN PRICE.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2257 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 2257 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2257CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 12,273 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2257LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,016 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.25//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 1803 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//.
// WE HAVE A LIGHT AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (51.707 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $23.25) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF12,027TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A GOOD T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 37,409 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (44.914 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3900 OZ QUEUE JUMP (FOR 0.1213 TONNES)//NEW TOTAL STANDING FALLS TO 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK : NEW TOTAL 51.707 TONNES../ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $23.25.
WE HAD -removed 246 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,027 CONTRACTS OR 1,202,700 OZ OR 37.409 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
15,134 notices 1,513,400 oz 47.073 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
customer deposits: 0
we had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 40 contracts having LOST 5 contracts. We had 45
contracts served upon WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED or an additional 40 CONTRACTS OR 4000 OZ (0.1244 tonnes) will stand for delivery at the comex.
JAN. LOST 173 contracts FALLING TO 2906 contracts.
FEB GAINED 7255 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 383,613
We had 40 contracts filed for today representing 4000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 40 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 38 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,134 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (40 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 40 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,513,400 OZ OR 47.073 TONNES + 4.634 TONNES EX. FOR RISK ISSUED/PRIOR/ (FOR DELIVERY HERE) = 51.707 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC.contract month: No of notices filed so far (15,134) x 100 oz + (40) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (40) x 100 oz) which equals 1,513,400 oz standing OR 47.073 TONNES + 4.634 tonnes of ex. for risk = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC: 51.707 TONNES WHICH IS LIGHT FOR THE BIGGEST ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. THEY PROBABLY KNOW THAT NO REAL GOLD IS PRESENT AT THE COMEX.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 20,041,014.732 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,252,592.558 (318,89 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,788,422.174 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,681.000 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 270,01 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 28
//2023// THE DEC 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//FINAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,258,857.040 oz Brinks HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
23 CONTRACT(S) (115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4051 Contracts (20,255,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 650,984.170 oz
ii) Into HSBC: 607,852.870 oz
total customer deposits: 1,258,857.040 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 133.1390 million oz/276.802 million or 48.08%
Comex withdrawals 0
total withdrawals nil oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 44.193 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276,802 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2023 OI: 23 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 174 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 137 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE LOST 37 CONTRACTS OR 185,000 OZ UNDERWENT AN E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON LOOKING FOR METAL OVER THERE ON THE LONDON SIDE OF THE POND.
JAN LOST 185 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1513 CONTRACTS
FEB GAINED 68 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 572
MARCH GAINED 1480 CONTRACTS TO 110,428
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 23 for 115,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 33,576// poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 47,855 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4051 x 5,000 oz = 20,1255,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (23) and the number of notices served upon today 23 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 4051 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC. (23) – number of notices served upon today (23 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month equates to 20.255 MILLION OZ. to which we add 0 million oz of exchange for risk today and then add prior exchange for risk of 6.5 million oz//
New total standing: 26.755 million oz.
There are 47.660 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
DEC11/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $30,80 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // A WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.12 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.82 TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $32.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.51 TONNES
NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.53 TONNES
NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNE
NOV 27/WITH GOLD UP $9,85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 881.71 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
DEC 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.648 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.7333 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.395 MILLION OZ
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.923 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.128 MILLION OZ
NOV 30/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 29/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.122 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 27/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,008,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.173 MILLION OZ
NOV 24/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.181 MILLION OZ
NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ
If history is any indication, January will be a good month for gold.
According to analysis by the World Gold Council, gold tends to perform well in the first month of the year.
Since 1971, gold has had an average return of 1.79% in January. That’s nearly three times the long-term monthly average.
Over that same period, gold has charted positive returns in January almost 60% of the time. Going back to 2000, gold has gained in 70% of Januaries.
The World Gold Council points to three factors that may boost gold’s January performance.
Beginning of the year portfolio rebalancing
Season weakness in real yields
Gold restocking in East Asia ahead of the Lunar New Year
The World Gold Council does advise a bit of caution.
“This doesn’t mean that gold prices rise every January. There’ve been several years when it hasn’t, most recently in 2021 and 2022. Years with negative returns in January generally coincided with periods when the US dollar has strengthened – often significantly.”
But as we move into 2024, there appears to be a good setup for gold to have another strong January.
In the first place, Federal Reserve rate hikes are on hold, and most people expect the central bank to start cutting rates next year. This should put a damper on dollar strength. In fact, we could see significant dollar weakness as we move into 2024. This would eliminate a major headwind for gold that persisted through most of 2023.
If historical trends hold, we may well see a continuing rally through the first month of 2024.
That means this might be a good buying opportunity.
END
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Yes, we have surpassed the highest ever closing price of gold
(GATA)//Reuters
London gold price benchmark breaks all-time high, LBMA says
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-12-27 16:46Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters Wednesday, December 27, 2023
London’s gold price benchmark hit an all-time high of $2,069.40 per troy ounce at an afternoon auction today, surpassing the previous record of $2,067.15 set in August 2020, the London Bullion Market Association said.
“I can think of no clearer demonstration of gold’s role as a store of value than the enthusiasm with which investors across the world have turned to the metal during the recent economic and geopolitical turmoils,” said LMBA’s chief executive officer Ruth Crowell. …
The Cost Of Grain That Feeds The World Hits New 15-Year High
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27, 2023 – 07:20 PM
On Wednesday, the Thai Rice Exporters Association revealed that the price of Thai white rice 5% broken, a key Asian benchmark, reached a new 15-year high. This surge is mainly attributed to increasing fears of a global shortage due to the damaging effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon on Asian farmlands and India’s recent decision to restrict certain rice exports.
Thai white rice 5% broken hit $659 a ton, the highest level since October 2008. Prices of the staple food that feeds billions of people worldwide are up over 50% since the start of 2022.
Chief Asia Economist at HSBC Global Research, Frederic Neumann, recently told clients that skyrocketing rice prices present hurdles for central banks combating high inflation. He drew parallels between the current surge in food prices and the one that rocked the world in 2008, noting that shortage fears are rising for the staple food that feeds billions of people.
“The memory of the 2008 Asian food price scare sits deep,” Neumann wrote.
He said, “Back then, rising rice prices in some economies quickly spilled over into other markets as consumers and governments across the region scrambled to secure supplies. It also lifted the prices of other staples, such as wheat, as buyers shifted to alternatives.”
Last month, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore that the current food crisis surpassed the one in 2007-08, which ultimately sparked the Arab Spring across the Middle East a few years later.
Menker said elevated crop prices and steep declines in local currencies against the dollar have severely pressured households of emerging market economies.
And remember, SocGen’s Albert Edwards warned in late 2020 that central banks’ money printing during Covid would spark a rise in food prices and the usual social-economic instabilities.
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1024
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1029
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.09 PTS OR 1.38%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 418.69 PTS OR 2.52%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 141.62 PTS OR 0.42%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.46 EURO RISES TO 1.1114 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.596 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 140.87/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.9249***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.527** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.859…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 2.944
3j Gold at $2076.20 silver at: 24.31 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 40 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.87//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 140,87// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.597% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8327 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.93055 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8140 UP 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.972 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.262 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.45…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 3.5115
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge.
Nasdaq Futures Hit Recorder Highs As Santa Rally Just Keeps Going
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 08:21 AM
The relentless Santa rally can’t stop, won’t stop, and while S&P futures swung between modest gains and losses, Nasdaq 100 index futures edged higher yet again to record-er highs, putting the tech-heavy index on track for its best year since the dotcom bubble burst, as US equities are set to close out 2023 at all-time highs amid optimism the Powell Fed is poised to boost Biden’s re-election campaign by cutting interest rates as soon as March despite sticky inflation, a sturdy labor market with near record low unemployment and an economy which, according to Goldman, is about to ramp up again. As of 7:50am, Nasdaq futures, already at an all time high after soaring a blistering 55% this year, the most since the pre-dot com bubble 1999 – rose another 0.2%, while S&P 500 contracts were little changed after the benchmark edged within just 0.3% of its record high from January 2022. After inexplicably tumbling yesterday, bond yields have reversed some of the sharp move lower, spawned by the relentless slide in the dollar as the market is now convinced the Fed will cut more than 6 times next year to smooth Biden’s reelection. Oil extended losses because of continued CTA selling, while bitcoin reversed yesterday’s gain.
In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-linked stocks slid as Bitcoin edges lower, following sharp gains on Wednesday that stretched the year’s torrid rallies. Here are some other notable movers:
Altice USA gains 8.9%, adding to Wednesday’s rally that was spurred by a report billionaire Xavier Niel has interest in buying Altice Portugal, which incidentally is unrelated to Altice USA but year-end squeezes don’t bring out the best and brightest.
CytoSorbents falls 26% after a trial of its medical device missed the primary effectiveness goal.
Microsoft shares are up 0.3% after Wedbush raised its price target on the software company to $450, maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Daniel Ives cites the potential of artificial intelligence and the company’s Copilot software.
An index of global equities is on pace for its highest close since February 2022, up more than 15% from its October low, reflecting traders’ optimism for interest rate cuts next year. As markets continue to price in a year of seemingly endless easing after Goldman’s Financial Conditions Index just experienced its biggest 2-month easing in history…
… many are starting to get cold feet; Mizuho Bank strategist Vishnu Varathan said that expectations of aggressive policy easing are getting front-loaded; with swap markets pricing in about an 84% chance of a cut by March, traders will be watching weekly jobs data later Thursday for further clues on the outlook for rates.
“The ferocity of the bond market rally has really augmented the total returns for investors,” said Varathan. “There’s a feeling markets are signaling we’re heading half-way toward easy monetary policy again.”
Well, we are: after all Biden’s handlers tapped Powell on the shoulder and it’s downhill from there… literally.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was little changed after erasing an early advance in thin holiday trading, on track for a gain of more than 12% this year. Oil majors declined as crude prices retreated.
Earlier in the session, gains in Asia were led by Chinese shares, which were headed for their best day in four months, boosted by a rotation into some of 2023’s worst-performing sectors as the dash for trash goes global. Stocks also rallied in Hong Kong, India and Australia. Key stock gauges in India rose for the fifth straight session to fresh record highs, boosted by a risk-on rally across Asia and gains in index heavweights like Reliance Industries. Indian stocks have outrun MSCI’s gauges for Asian and emerging markets stocks this month on the back of heavy inflows from global funds and victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in key state elections.
In FX, a gauge of the dollar was on track for a fifth day of declines, as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped to a new five-month low as markets continued to look toward Federal Reserve rate cuts next year. USDJPY dropped as much as 0.8% to 140.72 after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that negative rates could be scrapped before the full results of the spring wage negotiations (spoiler alert: they won’t be scrapped, if anything Japan will be forced to ease even more). EURUSD rose 0.3% to 1.1138 as the ECB’s Holzmann said there was no guarantee of rate reductions in 2024.
Meanwhile, bonds steadied after Wednesday’s strong rally which saw the two-year Tressury yield fall 11 basis points and Germany’s 10-year yield hitting a fresh 2023 low. That pushed one global measure of the bond market to the cusp of its best two-month rally on record as investors locked in higher yields prior to expected Fed cuts. On Thursday, treasuries dropped with yields rising 2bps across the curve; European government bonds followed Treasuries lower.
Looking at today’s US economic calendar we get the November trade balance and inventories and weekly jobless claims data at 8:30am, as well as November pending home sales at 10am. No Fed speakers are scheduled for remainder of year.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,834.50
MXAP up 1.2% to 169.25
MXAPJ up 1.4% to 528.42
Nikkei down 0.4% to 33,539.62
Topix down 0.1% to 2,362.02
Hang Seng Index up 2.5% to 17,043.53
Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,954.70
Sensex up 0.5% to 72,391.85
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,614.28
Kospi up 1.6% to 2,655.28
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 478.66
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.92%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1131
Brent futures down 0.7% to $79.07/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,076.28
US Dollar Index down 0.29% to 100.69
Top Overnight News
Nearly nine-tenths of the foreign money that flowed into China’s stock market in 2023 has already left, spurred by mounting doubts about Beijing’s willingness to take serious action to boost flagging growth. Since peaking at Rmb235bn ($33bn) in August, net foreign investment in China-listed shares this year has dropped 87 per cent to just Rmb30.7bn. FT
Japan’s industrial production for Nov isn’t as bad as feared, coming in -0.9% M/M (vs. the Street’s -1.6% forecast). RTRS
Israel warns it could soon take action along its northern border with Lebanon against Hezbollah as fears grow of a broader conflict. NYT
During a meeting in Moscow back in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia “will fight for [at least] five years” in Ukraine, sources have revealed. Nikkei
The US has proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets, as the allies rush to agree a plan in time for the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. FT
American’s border with Mexico is seeing record migrant crossings, overwhelming the ability of US law enforcement to deal with it. NYT
Dealmaking sank below $3tn for the first time in a decade in 2023, as a cocktail of higher interest rates and escalating geopolitical tension confounded bankers’ hopes that last year’s lull was a one-off. About $2.9tn worth of transactions were struck globally this year, data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows, down 17 per cent from 2022. It was the first time since 2008-09 that the value of deals announced fell more than 10 per cent for two consecutive years, LSEG said. FT
Professional social networking site LinkedIn has made new inroads into the digital advertising market, with higher demand driving up prices on the platform as brands seek to reallocate spending from Elon Musk’s X. Annual advertising revenues at the Microsoft-owned group rose to nearly $4bn in 2023, up 10.1 per cent year on year, according to estimates from research group Insider Intelligence. It also predicted further growth of 14.1 per cent in 2024. FT
AAPL won an appeals court ruling temporary pausing an ITC decision that had banned the sale of certain Apple Watch models (the gov’t will rule on Jan 12 whether an Apple software update adequately addresses the ITC patent claim). WSJ
Aggregate long/short ratio across R2K constituents has declined further to new multi-year lows, suggesting HFs remain skeptical of the price strength since November. GSPB
US Event Calendar
08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 205,000
08:30: Dec. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
08:30: Nov. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.4%
08:30: Nov. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
10:00: Nov. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -6.6%
10:00: Nov. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.9%, prior -1.5%
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.09 PTS OR 1.38% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 418.69 PTSOR 2.52% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 141.62 PTS OR 0.42% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .71% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1024 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1029 /Oil DOWN TO 73.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.54/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/RUSSIA
Russia warns Japan against shipping patriot missiles for Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Russia Warns Japan Against “Hostile Actions” Of Exporting Patriot Missiles For Ukraine
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27, 2023 – 09:50 PM
Russia and Japan historically were enemies but in recent decades moved to being ‘frenemies’ given improved relations but also the ongoing simmering standoff regarding ownership of the Kuril chain of islands just north of Japan. The last two years have seen relations get tense once again due to Russia’s Ukraine operations, and Tokyo’s growing defense cooperation with the United States, which has evoked Beijing’s wrath as well.
This is especially so in light of last week’s announcement by the Japanese government saying it is preparing to ship Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to assist Ukraine. It’s a plan the Biden administration has sought and considers a major diplomatic ‘victory’.
Japan just announced a significant change to its arms export rules in order to make this happen, something the White House has welcomed at a moment Kiev is running low on ammo and advanced arms. It’s also another big move signaling that Japan is abandoning its historic post-WWII neutrality and pacifism.
A headline last week in Nikkei Asia underscored that the planned Patriot transfer has ‘stunned’ regional watchers and analysts, given the US administration has long warned that China is the top ‘pacing threat’ to America globally:
Many have questioned the rationale of taking weapons out of the Indo-Pacific for a battle in Europe when the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has said all along that China is the pacing threat.
The transfer of Patriots was a request from the U.S. side. This suggests that the Biden administration has concluded that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. While many in Washington agree to that assessment, some oppose shifting attention away from the Indo-Pacific.
The government of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida “has made a fundamental error in going along with the Biden administration’s prioritization of Europe,” said Elbridge Colby, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.
But doing Washington’s bidding is precisely what Tokyo is up to, and public statements were clear on this point:
Tokyo previously only allowed for components of licensed equipment to be sent from Japan to the nation where the manufacturing license originated. But under the new rules it can ship finished goods too.
Shortly after the government announced this change on Friday, the foreign ministry said it would ship Patriot missiles to the US to “further strengthen the Japan-US alliance”.
It added that the missiles could only be sent to the US, and would require Japan’s approval to be sent to a third country. Japan still bans the export of weapons to countries at war.
This could mean that Japan-made Patriot missiles may replenish the US’ stockpile, while Washington sends US-made ones to Ukraine.
Hence while the missiles may not directly go to Ukraine, it’s certainly with an eye toward increasing supplies transferred there, and thus will indirectly benefit Ukrainian militarily.
Predictably, Moscow has blasted the move and warned Tokyo it faces “grave consequences”. Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a Wednesday briefing, “The Japanese side loses control over the weapons with which Washington can now do whatever it wants.” She added: “It cannot be ruled out that under an already tested scheme Patriot missiles will end up in Ukraine.”
She explained that such a scenario will be “interpreted as unambigously hostile actions against Russia and will lead to grave consequences for Japan in the context of bilateral relations.”
3 CHINA
CHINA/INDIA/RUSSIA
Amazing: China and India account for more than 90% of Russian oil and fuel exports
(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)
China And India Account For More Than 90% Of Russian Oil And Fuel Exports
China took in half of all the crude oil that Russia exported this year, with India a close second, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today on state TV.
China now accounts for 45% to 50% of Russian oil and fuel exports, while India is taking in some 40%, Novak said. The increase is particularly remarkable for India, where Russia exported almost no oil whatsoever until 2022. Now, it is the subcontinent’s leading supplier.
“If earlier we exported around 40-45% of our total crude oil and refined products to Europe, by the end of this year we expect this share to have fallen to 4-5%,” Novak said.
The figures suggest that China has essentially replaced Europe as destination for Russian crude and oil products.
Last week, another Deputy PM said that Russia’s oil exports are seen rising 7% this year from 2021 levels.
“The most pressing problems last year have generally been resolved. This firstly concerns payments and cargo insurance, [and] secondly concerns ensuring seaborne shipping of hydrocarbons by tanker fleet,” Alexander Belousov said.
Also last week, Transneft’s head, Nikolay Tokarev, reported that the volume of Russian oil shipments to China this year had surged to some 100 million tons, equal to about 2 million barrels daily.
“Export volumes to China and India have increased significantly; many times over. I can say that about 70 million tonnes of oil were supplied to India this year, while about 100 million tonnes of oil went to China,” Tokarev said.
Indian imports of Russian crude, meanwhile, hit a four-month high in November, at 1.6 million bpd, according to data Reuters reported it had obtained from trade sources. The November imports were 3.1% higher than India’s intake of Russian crude in October and accounted for more than a third of all Indian crude oil imports last month.
end
CHINA/TAIWAN
Xi vows to stop Taiwan seceding from China. We have two weeks before Taiwan’s major election.
Summary below
(zerohedge)
Xi Vows “Any Means” To Stop Taiwan Seceding From China, Weeks Before Major Election
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27, 2023 – 06:30 PM
Taiwan is just over two weeks away from key elections, something increasingly attracting global media attention given fresh threats from Beijing. On Wednesday China warned of further trade sanctions on Taiwan in the event the ruling party “stubbornly” commits to supporting independence.
Spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Chen Binhua has addressed a message to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), saying “If the DPP authorities are determined to persevere, continue to stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position, and refuse to repent, we support the relevant departments taking further measures in accordance with the regulations.”
Presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on Jan.13, but Beijing has warned that the self-ruled island’s reunification is inevitable.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday issued some his strongest words on the issue thus far, vowing to use “any means” to prevent anyone from “making Taiwan secede from China.”
He issued the words in a speech markingthe130th anniversary of the PRC founder Mao Zedong’s birth. He also stressed the necessity of maintaining the “one country, two systems” policy in Hong Kong and Macau while emphasizing the need for a central government to exercise “overall jurisdiction”.
He said of Taiwan that “China’s complete reunification is an inevitable trend” and that reunification is “what the people desire.” He further urged that the Chinese Communist Party must set its sights of a grander policy of “resolving the Taiwan question in the new era.”
China’s official position has been that it always seeks first reunification through peaceful and political means, and again called for “advance integrated development in all fields” across the strait bases on peaceful development of cross-strait ties.
But that’s when Xi pledged to ‘resolutely’ prevent any movement or outside force from “making Taiwan secede from China by any means.” Of course, China sees Washington as the biggest instigator in the region, particularly through high level visits of US officials and repeat arms transfers involving advanced weapons systems.
“Taiwan holds a presidential election on Jan. 13, and the year could start with a small crisis in the straits. Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Although Lai has said he won’t call for formal Taiwanese independence or drop the Republic of China name—a red line for Beijing—he has also said that Taiwan’s sovereignty is “a fact” and reminded his fellow candidates that by Beijing’s standards, they are all pro-independence.
A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions. Reports last week about comments made by Xi to U.S. President Joe Biden about reunification with Taiwan when they met in November stirred some panic in Washington, but an invasion remains highly unlikely. It would be risky and difficult, especially when China is struggling with other crises.
Even a victory for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) on Jan. 13 may cause some problems. The KMT is more pro-China than the DPP, but it would hardly hand the keys to the island over to Beijing. Chinese officials might overestimate the significance of a KMT election win, seeing it as a sign of China’s influence in Taiwan. Although 17 percent of Taiwanese voters said in a recent survey that China is their main concern, more than twice that number picked the economy.”
END
Multiple banking executives commit suicide as well as some sudden deaths. They were quite young
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to purge its financial system, state media recently revealed that a number of bank executives have committed suicide or died suddenly.
According to the authorities of Yingshan County, Hubei Province, Wang Shengyong, the president of the Yangtze River Village Bank in the county, died of carbon monoxide poisoning on Dec. 5 at the age of 54 years old. It was reported that Wang committed suicide after using his position to defraud depositors of 40 million yuan (about $5.6 million) under the guise of capital raising.
According to official media reports, Du Haitao, deputy general manager of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Credit Suisse Asset, died of a heart attack while running on Dec. 13 at the age of 49. Born in 1974, Du was deputy general manager of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co., LTD. and chairman of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Co., LTD.
On Dec. 10, Gong Danzhi, the president of Huaxia Bank’s Tianjin branch, fell to his death. The local police station confirmed the news.
Based on business information, Gong Danzhi was appointed as the president of Huaxia Bank’s Tianjin branch in November 2020. Previously, he was the vice president of the bank’s Beijing branch and the president of its Beijing urban sub-centre branch.
Founded in October 1992 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in September 2003, Huaxia Bank is China’s fifth nationally listed bank, with 44 first-tier branches across the country and more than 40,000 employees. Shougang Group, a large-scale state-owned enterprise, is Huaxia Bank’s first major shareholder, with a shareholding of 21.68 percent.
However, in 2023, Huaxia Bank was in a series of accidents and fined tens of millions of yuan.
On Dec. 20, the National Administration of Financial Regulation’s Taizhou Supervision Branch issued a fine of 300,000 yuan (about $42,000) for Huaxia Bank’s Taizhou branch.
On Sept. 26, Huaxia Bank’s Xiamen branch was fined 2.8 million yuan (about $391,700).
On Aug. 14, Huaxia Bank’s Nanchang branch was fined 1.985 million yuan (about $277,700).
On July 3, a number of Huaxia Bank’s branches and sub-branches were subject to regulatory penalties of 2 million yuan (about $279,800) for violations of laws and regulations.
On June 30, Huaxia Bank was fined a total of 1.45 million yuan (about $202,900) in five fines for a number of credit violations.
On June 2, Huaxia Bank’s Yingkou branch was fined 700,000 yuan (about $97,900).
On April 19, Huaxia Bank’s Shaoxing branch was fined 950,000 yuan (about $132,900).
Bank Presidents Die Due to Pressure
In 2023, at least 96 financial executives have fallen from grace, and 38 people have been investigated in the five major state-owned banks.
“The suicide of bank presidents show that the central [authority] doesn’t take responsibility anymore. Whoever lends out the money is responsible,” Wang Donglan (a pseudonym), former vice president of a bank in Shandong Province, told The Epoch Times on Dec. 20.
“In the past, enterprises were encouraged to operate in debt.
Some enterprises did not meet the conditions for loans, but through interpersonal connections, they got the loans anyway.
“No one asked about it for so many years. Now for the year-end check, someone must be held accountable, can the bank presidents not be anxious?
Which sum of money was loaned out without the presidents’ sign?
Choosing to commit suicide may be able to save their families or assets.”
On May 4, the Bank of Beijing released an announcement that Lin Hua, an independent director of the company, died at the age of 47 due to illness.
Mr. Lin, born in 1975, had an impressive resume. As a chartered financial analyst and financial risk manager, he did his MBA at the University of California, Irvine, and his PhD in applied financial sciences from the University of Geneva. He joined the Bank of Beijing’s board of directors in July 2022 and was an independent director of the bank.
Customers leave a branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in Beijing. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)
According to public information, Lin was the chairman of Beijing Huacheng Functional Technology Co., Ltd. He was also the editorial board member of the journal Financial Accounting, the executive deputy director of the Asset Securitisation Professional Committee of the Insurance Asset Management Association of China, a member of the Enterprise Accounting Standards Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Finance, an independent non-executive director of China Merchants Land Asset Management, and a member of the Standing Committee of the Fifteenth Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Dongcheng District, Beijing, among other titles.
As of Dec. 7, CCP authorities reported that at least 96 cadres of the financial system had been investigated. Among them, there were 8 cadres under central administration, 71 cadres in central organs, state-owned enterprises, and financial departments, as well as 17 cadres under provincial administration. In 2022, the number of people under investigation in the financial system was 77. Since the CCP’s figures have long been questioned, the real number may be higher.
“A lot of middle and senior executives in many departments now died of sudden death or heart disease.” Wang Donglan said. “There are all sorts of discussions online, from death by disease to side effects of vaccines.”
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/UKRAINE/HUNGARY
IDIOTS!! 20 billion euros to fund Ukraine which have already lost the war
(zerohedge)
EU Readies €20BN Back-Up Plan To Fund Ukraine & Sidestep Hungary
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The European Union has prepared a €20 billion back-up plan (or $32.3 billion) in order to bypass objections of Hungary’s Viktor Orban over keeping up funding for war-ravaged Ukraine.
The debt-funded scheme is similar to the €100 billion Covid-19 pandemic fund for EU countries in 2020, but doesn’t require guarantees from all member states, only those with the highest credit ratings who will make up the main participants.
In mid-December, Hungary finally allowed the bloc to move forward on EU membership talks for Ukraine by abstaining from the vote instead of a “no” – but still blocked a 50 billion euro package of financial aid for Kiev.
Just before Christmas, Orban reiterated in a speech, “I am convinced that to give Ukraine 50 billion euros ($54.70 billion) from the EU budget for five years… That’s a bad decision.”
He then explained his position further, saying, “They want to give the money to Ukraine from inside the EU budget, Hungary wants to give it outside the EU budget. They have the possibility – if we don’t agree on this – to resolve this outside the budget but don’t have the option of resolving this from the EU budget without Hungarian approval.”
This newly proposed plan for raising €20-plus billion could prove a lengthy process, however, as it’s not expected to result in funds for Ukraine until at least March:
This option does not require guarantees from all 27 EU member states, allowing the inclusion of countries with the highest credit ratings as principal participants.
As unanimous support is not required, the approach would allow the EU to bypass Hungary’s veto. Some countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, may require parliamentary approval to provide national guarantees.
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the reports by saying that common European taxpayers are starting to realize the degree to which their money is being mishandled by Ukraine.
“Both Europeans and Americans are already well aware of the level of corruption (in Ukraine) and they understand that a fair portion of this money is stolen,” Peskov told a press briefing.
Hawks are seeing “hope” in this EU move…
“This money will not be able to change the course of events (in the Ukraine conflict)… This money is allocated to the detriment of EU economies which are already going through difficult times..,” he said, at a moment it’s being widely recognized that Russia is winning the war amid a severe Ukrainian manpower and ammo shortage.
Meloni IMO is the new Iron lady, move over Maggie! Rips into Islam as being incompatable with modern society in Europe, I imagine she means radical 6th century Sharia islam
‘In a recent statement, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni raised a contentious issue about the compatibility between Islamic culture and European civilization.
Emphasizing her views, Meloni declared that these cultural systems are not compatible, specifically highlighting the challenges of integrating Sharia law within European societal norms.
“I think there is a problem of compatibility between Islamic culture or certain interpretations of Islamic culture and the rights and values of our civilization,” Meloni told the reporters.
Giorgia Meloni saying that Europe is being islamized and that much of the money used for the process come from Saudi Arabia.
She says it’s “incompatible with European culture”
“It does not escape my mind that most of the Islamic cultural centers in Italy are funded by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a nation that applies Sharia law at home, and Sharia means stoning for adultery, death penalty for apostasy, death penalty for homosexuality. I believe these issues should be raised, which does not mean generalizing about Islam, it means raising the problem that there is a process of Islamization in Europe going on that is very distant from the values of our civilization.”’
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/HAMAS//ISRAEL
IDF announces deaths of 3 soldiers killed in Gaza, raising ground op toll to 167
From left: Sgt. First Class (res.) Asaf Pinhas Tubul, 22, Cpt. (res.) Neriya Zisk, 24, Maj. Dvir David Fima 32. (Israel Defense Forces)
The IDF announces the deaths of three soldiers in fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, bringing the toll of slain troops since the start of the ground offensive to 167.
They are:
Sgt. First Class (res.) Asaf Pinhas Tubul, 22, of the 7th Armored Brigade’s 77th Battalion, from Kiryat Motzkin.
Cpt. (res.) Neriya Zisk, 24, a company commander in the 401st Armored Brigade’s 52nd Battalion, from Masu’ot Yitzhak.
Maj. Dvir David Fima, 32, the deputy commander of the 460th Armored Brigade’s 198th Battalion, from Kfar Yona.
Tubul was killed in southern Gaza, in a battle that seriously wounded another officer and soldier of the 77th Battalion.
Fima was killed in central Gaza, in a battle that seriously wounded a soldier of the 7107th Battalion.
Zisk was also killed in central Gaza, in a separate battle.
end
JERUSALEM/MILITANTS
Two wounded in a terrorist attack, East Jerusalem terror suspect eliminated.
Two wounded in reported terror stabbing attack near Jerusalem
Roads have been briefly blocked to Jerusalem following the attack.
Police and security personnel at Mazmuria checkpoint, near har Homa neighborhood of East Jerusalem, where a Palestinian man attempted to stab police officers at the checkpoint,
Two people were reportedly wounded in a stabbing attack at the Mazmuria checkpoint near Jerusalem on Thursday night, as per initial reports.
One is in serious condition and the other is in moderate condition. The terrorist was “neutralized,” according to Army Radio.
MDA paramedics arrived at the scene to give the victims medical treatment, Walla reported.
Roads blocked
Roads have been briefly blocked to Jerusalem following the attack.Police and security personnel at Mazmuria checkpoint, near har Homa neighborhood of East Jerusalem, where a Palestinian man attempted to stab police officers at the checkpoint, September 18, 2023. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Police and security personnel at the scene of a stabbing attack at a checkpoint, near Jerusalem, December 28, 2023(photo credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Two people were wounded in a stabbing attack at the Mazmuria checkpoint near Jerusalem on Thursday night, as per initial reports.
One was in serious condition, and the other was in moderate condition. The terrorist was killed at the scene.
Police and security personnel at the scene of a stabbing attack at a checkpoint, near Jerusalem, December 28, 2023 (credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Roads to Jerusalem blocked after terror attack
Roads to Jerusalem have been briefly blocked following the attack.
An initial police confirmation stated that the terrorist arrived at the checkpoint armed with a knife and stabbed two people, who were then taken to the hospital. The two arrived at the Shaare Zedek Hospital, Walla reported, where they both arrived conscious and in stable condition and had undergone medical evaluations.
The terrorist was revealed to be an Israeli Arab who arrived at the checkpoint from the Israeli side of the crossing.
end
ISRAEL/GAZA/
Israel-Hamas war: ‘Post’ sees Hamas intelligence gathered by IDF in Gaza
Using the IDF intelligence catalog office’s conclusions, there have been a huge number of instances where IDF soldiers in the field were saved from Hamas ambushes.
‘Post’ sees Hamas intelligence gathered by IDF in Gaza (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF brought the Jerusalem Post and some other media outlets on Thursday for a special visit of military intelligence‘s office to collect items seized from Hamas for inspecting, cataloging, and translating into operational intelligence.
Since October 7, the office of around 350 personnel, the majority reservists, has sorted through over 65 million electronic files and 500,000 physical documents, with the current rate of new incoming electronic files reaching the region of one million per day.
Using the IDF intelligence catalog office’s conclusions, there have been a huge number of instances where IDF soldiers in the field were saved from Hamas ambushes.
For example, physical maps and electronic files have revealed to the IDF many of the places where Hamas has concealed tunnel shafts and spots for sharpshooters set up for ambushes.
In one instance, a Hamas map was seized by IDF Division 36 from an aid to Hamas Shejaia battalion commander Wessam Farhat which IDF intelligence Unit 9900 succeeded in translating into an operation to attack specific tunnel ambush points.
A handwritten map of Hamas’s tunnel networks seized by the IDF (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF engineering then coordinated the destruction of the tunnel.
Findings are helpful to soldiers in the field
The IDF played an audio file during the visit to their base in which soldiers in the field thanked the intelligence catalog unit for essentially saving their lives from what would have been an almost certain ambush.Advertisement
In another case, IDF Division soldiers in the field seized and sent to the intelligence catalog unit physical documents indicating where improvised explosives had been concealed in the Beit Hanoun area.
After the intelligence catalog unit decoded and translated the documents, they sent information back to field units which were able to neutralize the IEDs.
In 2018, the intelligence catalog unit was closed because it was not been used sufficiently in the years since 2013 and before.
A small subunit of the intelligence catalog unit had remained functional, set aside within another large portion of the IDF intelligence branch.
But in a very short time after October 7, the huge volunteering spirit of reservists helped reestablish the unit and quickly reach its current level of 350 highly trained officials.
Most documents are analyzed by four different experts: one in Arabic, one in mapping and the Gaza landscape, one who understands the general fighting and tactical needs of IDF forces in the field, and one who has the expertise for how to actually submit the distilled information to IDF officers in the field in real-time.
In some cases, top IDF officials leading the unit have directly contacted the battalion and other officers in the field, leapfrogging the usual channels and chains of command to likely save lives since a delay of minutes or hours might be too late.
For example, there have been cases where the entire maneuvering strategy of an IDF Division or battalion was altered based on information from the unit.
Another item found by the unit was Hamas’s close following of protests relating to the judicial overhaul debate in Israel.
In a broader sense, some information from the unit can even alter the general directives and strategy employed by the security cabinet.
The unit has not been surprised by many of Hamas’s tunnels but has been surprised by the full scope of the tunnels, and sometimes the intelligence it has gathered in real-time helped locate tunnels more exactly, whereas prior intelligence only gave a general location.
The physical catalog area itself and the computer area for cracking and deciphering certain information that the Post visited were significant, with substantial well-trained staff working simultaneously at both tasks.
These reservists have been at work for months and expressed readiness to continue their roles for an indefinite period despite their need to run businesses and maintain their families.
end
Israeli-American Judith Weinstein was murdered on Oct. 7, her body being held in Gaza — kibbutz
In this undated, unknown location photo, Judith Weinstein and Gad Haggai hold each other (Iris Weinstein Haggai via AP)
Haggai via AP)
Judith Weinstein was murdered during Hamas’s October 7 terror onslaught and her body is being held in Gaza, her hometown of Kibbutz Nir Oz announces.
The development comes less than a week after the kibbutz announced that Judith’s husband Gadi Haggai died in captivity after being taken hostage by Hamas terrorists on October 7. His body is also being held by Hamas, a Nir Oz statement said.
Haggai and Weinstein, both dual Israeli-American citizens, were on their morning walk when gunfire erupted and missiles streaked across the sky on October 7.
Taking cover in a field, they could hear a recorded voice from an alert system for their kibbutz in southern Israel.
“What did she say?” Weinstein asked in Hebrew as she captured the scene on video.
“Red alert,” her 72-year-old husband said, referring to the warning for incoming rocket fire.
Weinstein shared the 40-second video clip in a group chat that morning, when Hamas invaded Nir Oz during its terror onslaught, in the couple’s last contact with their family.
Weinstein was a longtime member of Nir Oz along with her husband. She was a mother of four and grandmother to seven. She was an English teacher who worked with children with special needs. She also used meditation and mindfulness techniques to treat children suffering from anxiety caused by years of rocket fire that have plagued residents of the Gaza border area.
“She was a poet and an entrepreneur who loved to create and was dedicated to working for peace and friendship,” Kibbutz Nir Oz says in a statement.
end
IDF uncovers Hamas special forces’ terror tunnels, rocket launcher in mosque
The tunnel and the war room were used by Nukhba operatives as a place of combat and transfer of weapons. Israel forces had since dismantled the tunnel route and the war room.
IDF’s 55th Paratroopers Reserve Brigade operating inside Khan Yunis on December 28, 2023.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF’s 55th Paratroopers Reserve Brigade uncovered on Thursday an underground route that was connected to a war room belonging to Nukhba commandos of the Hamas terror organization in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.
The soldiers in the brigade had “eliminated terrorists and located several tunnel shafts and terrorist infrastructure that were subsequently destroyed by combat engineering soldiers,” the IDF said, and “located a tunnel shaft and a rocket launcher inside a mosque, which was next to a school.”
Israeli forces found inside the mosque a staging area that included observation and combat posts that endangered the soldiers.
Tunnel, war room used by Hamas for combat practice and weapons transfer
The tunnel and the war room were used by Nukhba operatives as a place of combat and transfer of weapons. Israel forces had since dismantled the tunnel route and the war room.
IDF uncovers a tunnel shaft inside a mosque in Khan Yunis (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
The IDF had been focusing on destroying Hamas’ terrorist infrastructure and underground tunnels in the municipality of Bani Suheila.
END
this is big! son of Hamas senior deputy leaders, Marwan Issa killed. He is Muhammad Issa
(Jerusalem Post)
Son of Hamas leader Marwan Issa killed in IDF strike – report
The IDF killed Muhammad Issa, the son of Muhammad Deif’s top military deputy in Gaza, Marwan Issa.
Muhammad, son of Marwan Issa killed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza(photo credit: VIA MAARIV/SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)
Muhammad Issa, the son of Hamas’s Deputy Military Commander Marwan, was killed in an IDF attack on Thursday morning, Israeli media reported, citing Palestinian media.
Issa serves as the top deputy to Gaza military chief Muhammad Deif.
Palestinian killed in clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah – report
A Palestinian man was killed, and several others were injured amid clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah in the West Bank early Thursday morning, according to Palestinian reports.
Clashes were reported in several cities throughout the West Bank on Wednesday night, including in Jericho, Halhul, Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus. At least nine Palestinians were injured in clashes in Halhul overnight, according to Palestinian reports.
In Jenin, one Palestinian was moderately injured, and two others were lightly injured in an Israeli drone strike, according to Palestinian media.
This is a developing story.
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
Palestinian killed in clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah – report
A Palestinian man was killed and several others were injured amid clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah in the West Bank early Thursday morning, according to Palestinian reports.
Clashes were reported in several cities throughout the West Bank on Wednesday night, including in Jericho, Halhul, Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus. At least nine Palestinians were injured in clashes in Halhul overnight, according to Palestinian reports.
In Jenin, one Palestinian was moderately injured and two others were lightly injured in an Israeli drone strike, according to Palestinian media
END
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
Millions of shekels in cash seized by IDF overnight in West Bank
During the overnight operation, security forces seized safes, financial documents, phones and recordings as evidence, in addition to tens of millions of shekels.
By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 28, 2023 09:58Updated: DECEMBER 28, 2023 14:23
Cash seized overnight in the West Bank by Israeli security forces. December 26, 2023.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Israeli forces raided foreign exchange and money transfer agencies in Ramallah and other cities in the West Bank on Thursday, seizing millions of dollars suspected of being intended to fund the Islamist group Hamas, the military said.
At least one person was killed and 14 others were wounded in a clash between Israeli troops and Palestinians in the center of Ramallah, the main city in the West Bank and the seat of the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinian health ministry said.
An Israeli military statement said police, army and Shin Bet security personnel carried out the raids across the West Bank, making 21 arrests in Ramallah as well as Tulkarm and Jenin, in the northern West Bank and Hebron in the south.
“During the operation, terrorist funds were found and tens of millions of shekels, safes, documents, recording systems and telephones were confiscated,” it said.
As well as financial service providers, the operation also targeted cryptographic currencies, with a special cyber crimes unit taking part in the investigation, the military said.
Clashes also broke out in several other locations. The Israeli military said its soldiers opened fire after explosives, petrol bombs and rocks were thrown at them.
In Jenin, an Israeli aircraft fired on militants who had attacked troops, it said.Advertisement
Israeli security forces operate overnight in the Gaza Strip. Image released on December 28, 2023. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF activity in Gaza
In Gaza, combat soldiers in the 401st Combat Brigade operated in the northern Gaza City district of Tuffah, eliminating Hamas terrorists on the ground and by air in conjunction with the IAF.
Israeli infantry destroyed terrorist infrastructure inside a building from which missiles had been launched at Israeli forces shortly beforehand.
Soldiers in the 14th Division located a weapons cache in a home in Gaza after an exchange of fire with Hamas terrorists.
IDF naval forces continued to provide fire support to troops operating on the ground in the Gaza Strip.
end
Palestinian killed in clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah – report
A Palestinian man was killed and several others were injured amid clashes with Israeli forces in Ramallah in the West Bank early Thursday morning, according to Palestinian reports.
Clashes were reported in several cities throughout the West Bank on Wednesday night, including in Jericho, Halhul, Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus. At least nine Palestinians were injured in clashes in Halhul overnight, according to Palestinian reports.
In Jenin, one Palestinian was moderately injured and two others were lightly injured in an Israeli drone strike, according to Palestinian media.
END
LEBANON/ISRAEL
IDF says it’s responding to barrages of rockets fired at northern Israel from Lebanon
Smoke billows in the southern Lebanese village of Marwahin following an Israeli airstrike, December 27, 2023. (Jalaa Marey/AFP)
The IDF says it is responding to barrages of rockets on northern Israel from Lebanon by striking the sources of the fire.
Regarding an earlier suspected drone infiltration alert in the Galilee Panhandle, the IDF says “there is no fear of a security incident.”
The IDF also confirms it carried out strikes against a number of areas in Lebanon overnight and this morning, without elaborating further.END
END
IRAN/SYRIA/ISRAEL/GOLAN HEIGHTS
Kamikaze drone targets Golan for first time in war
This is the first case of an explosive drone falling in the Golan Heights during the war.
A drone is launched during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on August 25, 2022(photo credit: VIA REUTERS)
A kamikaze drone hit an open area in the southern Golan Heights on Wednesday night, with the Iran-backed militias in Iraq claiming responsibility for the attack.
No injuries were reported in the incident, although damage was caused to a building.
The Iran-backed militias in Iraq said that they launched the drone toward a site near the town of Eliad in the Golan Heights “in support of Gaza.”
This is the first case of an explosive drone falling in the Golan Heights during the war.Iraqi Shi’ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party’s flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of Ramadan, in Baghdad. July 25, 2014 (credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)
The Iran-backed militias in Iraq also claimed responsibility for an attack near the Erbil International Airport earlier on Wednesday. The militias said that they targeted a site belonging to the US-led coalition.
Iraqi militias involvement in the Israel-Hamas war
Iranians chant ‘Death to Israel’ at huge funeral of commander said killed by Israel
Khamenei leads prayer over body before thousands gather to pay respects to senior Revolutionary Guard official Razi Mousavi, killed in Syria airstrike; Iran vows response
Mourners attend the funeral of Razi Mousavi, a senior commander in the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was killed on December 25 in an alleged Israeli strike in Syria, in Tehran, on December 28, 2023. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
Thousands massed Thursday in the Iranian capital for the funeral of senior Revolutionary Guard commander Razi Mousavi, three days after he was killed in Syria in what Tehran claims was an Israeli strike.
The crowd in Tehran’s central Imam Hossein square chanted “Death to Israel” and “Death to America,” while many waved yellow flags with the message “I am your opponent” — a reference to Israel — in both Persian and Hebrew.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier on Thursday met with Mousavi’s family and led a prayer over the slain general’s body before it was taken to the central square.
Israel has long fought a shadow war of assassinations and sabotage against Iran and its allies, but Mousavi’s killing came at a time of sharply heightened regional tensions over the Israel-Hamas conflict since early October.
Some of the mourners in Tehran carried pictures of Mousavi together with Qassem Soleimani, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) foreign operations arm who was killed in a 2020 US drone strike in Baghdad. The IRGC is a US-designated terrorist organization.
Iran next week will mark the fourth anniversary of the death of Soleimani, who had run the IRGC’s Quds Force for more than a decade and directed countless terror attacks abroad.
Mousavi’s body was taken to Iraq for funeral rites in Shiite Muslim holy sites a day ahead of his burial in Iran on Thursday.
People attended the funeral of a high-ranking Iranian general, Razi Mousavi, in Najaf, Iraq, on December 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Anmar Khalil)
Iranian state media says Mousavi, a Quds Force general and the most senior IRGC commander killed since Soleimani, was killed in an Israeli missile strike on Monday near the Syrian capital Damascus.
The IDF, which has launched hundreds of strikes on Iran-linked targets in war-torn Syria in recent years, said only that it does not comment on foreign media reports.
Syria on Thursday said Mousavi’s “martyrdom” on its territory was part of Israel’s “aggressive policies,” official news agency SANA reported.
In letters sent by the Syrian foreign ministry, Damascus called on the United Nations to act against Israeli actions that might “ignite the region,” SANA said.
Tehran vows ‘response’
The head of the Guards, Hossein Salami, hailed Mousavi as “one of the most experienced and effective IRGC commanders in the Axis of Resistance” — Tehran-aligned armed terror groups in the Middle East.
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on December 28, 2023, shows him (L) meeting the relatives of Razi Mousavi, a senior commander in the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was killed on December 25 in an alleged Israeli strike in Syria, during his funeral in Tehran. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
IRGC spokesman Ramezan Sharif warned on Wednesday that “our response to Mousavi’s assassination will be a combination of direct action as well as [from] others led by the Axis of Resistance.”
Sharif charged that Israel’s killing of the general “was likely due to its failures” when the Iran-backed terror group Hamas launched a massive onslaught on October 7, killing approximately 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapping 240, mostly civilians, amid horrendous acts of brutality.
In response, Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas, launching a wide-scale military campaign in Gaza aimed at destroying the group’s military and governance capabilities. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says at least 21,110 people have been killed in the strikes, though those figures cannot be independently verified, and are believed to include both civilians and Hamas members killed in Gaza, including as a consequence of terror groups’ own rocket misfires.
Iran, which supports Hamas both financially and militarily, has hailed the devastating October 7 attacks as a “success” but denied any direct involvement.
“‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ was a completely Palestinian operation,” Salami said, using Hamas’s name for the October 7 attack, a day after remarks by spokesman Sharif seemed to suggest it was in part motivated by revenge for Soleimani’s killing.
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
END
IRAN, USA.BRITAIN, FRANCE/GERMANY
TOTALLY TOOTHLESS!
US, France, Germany and UK call on Iran to de-escalate nuclear program
By REUTERSDECEMBER 28, 2023 20:57
France, Germany, Britain and the United States condemned Iran’s increase in production of highly enriched uranium following the IAEA report from earlier this week.
“We urge Iran to immediately reverse these steps and de-escalate its nuclear program,” the spokespersons for the countries said in a joint statement on Thursday.
“We remain committed to a diplomatic solution and reaffirm our determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon,” the statement said.
An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report seen by Reuters on Tuesday said Iran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023.”
END
SYRIA/IRAN/ISRAEL
Another Israeli airstrike near Damascus
(Jerusalem Post)
Explosions heard near Syria’s Damascus in alleged Israeli airstrike
Blasts were heard in the vicinity of Damascus amid reports of an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria on Thursday night, Syrian media reported.
Syrian air defenses were activated following Israeli “aggression,” the Syrian News Agency added.
Sayyed Reza Mousavi, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike in the vicinity of the Syrian capital on Monday.
Regular readers of Mission Brief will know that our main focus since October 7th has been on dismantling Hamas in Gaza.
But today, I want to start with events that occurred this week along Israel’s northern border before we get back to Gaza.
Part One:
Earlier this week, Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile from Lebanon at the Greek Catholic Church in northern Israel.
In the attack, two Israeli civilians were injured.
As IDF troops in the area were evacuating the injured from the area of the church, Hezbollah then fired another missile at the site. In this attack, a further nine IDF soldiers were wounded, including one who was severely injured.
But Hezbollah’s deliberate desecration of places of worship did not end there.
This time, however, Hezbollah fired from the area of a mosque in Lebanon.
Take a look:
These acts of indiscriminate aggression by Hezbollah – against and from places of worship – are similar to those perpetrated by Hamas. Like Hamas’ attacks, they similarly endanger the security and stability of the entire region.
Hezbollah’s Recurring Attacks and the IDF’s Response:
Since October 7th, Hezbollah has intensified its attacks against Israel, to which the IDF has been responding decisively.
Hezbollah has fired hundreds of times from Lebanon. Rockets, mortars and UAVs have all been used to attack Israel. Over 80,000 civilians in northern Israel have been evacuated from their homes while the attacks continue.
The IDF has been operating to defend Israel’s northern border and communities from these threats.
Here’s one example of our precise, responsive strikes on Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon:
The intention behind Hezbollah’s attacks is clear: Hezbollah aims to drag Lebanon, and potentially the wider region, into a conflict initiated by Hamas.
This path, if pursued, could lead to dire consequences, for the people and State of Lebanon.
This is a scenario that neither Lebanon nor the region deserves.
In light of these developments, the IDF is preparing for all possible scenarios. If diplomatic efforts fail to curb Hezbollah’s ongoing violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, then the IDF will take the necessary action to secure our borders.
The responsibility for any escalation and its consequences will squarely fall on Hezbollah, which continues to pose a significant threat not only to Israel, but also to Lebanon, the broader region and wider world.
Begin the new year by subscribing here to the Mission Brief:
Hezbollah is not the only terrorist group that deliberately uses holy sites for its military activity.
Hamas has weaponized mosques across the Gaza Strip for the same purpose.
Regular readers will remember other examples I’ve cited, but here’s another mosque we revealed today to be hiding an entrance to Hamas’ underground network of terror tunnels:
For Hamas – like Hezbollah – nothing is holy in their war on Israel.
Operational Updates:
Gaza Strip:
IDF ground, aerial and naval troops are continuing to operate against Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip, with a focus on Khan Yunis and the central camps areas.
Israel is continuing efforts to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Today (Thursday), 109 trucks were inspected at Nitzana Crossing and transferred to Gaza via the Rafah Crossing.
This evening, the IDF published an investigation into the deaths of three hostages from IDF fire earlier this month. The full statement can be found here: https://www.idf.il/167560
Northern Arena:
A large number of launches were carried out from the towns of Ayta ash Shab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon toward Israeli territory. IDF aircraft, tanks and artillery have been used to strike Hezbollah terror infrastructure in those areas.
A terrorist squad that attempted to launch anti-tank missiles toward Israeli territory was struck by the IDF. In addition, a terrorist squad hiding inside a residence from which launches were carried out toward Israeli territory earlier today was also struck.
Quote of the Day:
“The IDF and within it the Northern Command are in a state of very high readiness. So far, the campaign here has been managed correctly and meticulously, and it must continue this way. We will not return the residents without both security and a sense of security.”
LTG Herzi Halevi, IDF Chief of the General Staff (27.12.2023)
What I’m Reading:
How ‘Israel’s SAS’ special forces rescue troops from the Gaza battlefield in just 60 seconds in death-defying missions under fire from Hamas | Daily Mail Online
That’s all from me for today.
Lt. Col. Richard Hecht
END
/RUSSIA//CHINA
(Pepe Escobar)
an excellent commentary that Russia and China on an economic roll
While the dogs of war bark, lie and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on…
2023 may be defined for posterity as The Year of the Russia-China Strategic Partnership. This wonder of wonders could easily sway under a groove by – who else – Stevie Wonder: “Here I am baby/ signed, sealed, delivered, I’m yours.”
In the first 11 months of 2023, trade between Russia and China exceeded $200 billion; they did not expect to achieve that until 2024.
Now surely that’s One Partnership Under a Groove. Once again signed, sealed and delivered during the visit of a large delegation to Beijing last week, led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and revisited and upgraded the whole spectrum of the comprehensive partnership/strategic cooperation, complete with an array of new, major joint projects.
Add to it the carefully structured breakdown written by head of the SVR Sergey Naryshkin, defining 2024 as “the year of geopolitical awakening”, and coming up with arguably the key formulation following the upcoming, cosmic NATO humiliation in the steppes of Donbass: “In 2024, the Arab world will remain the main space in the struggle for the establishment of a new order.”
Confronted with such detailed geopolitical fine-tuning, it’s no wonder the imperial reaction was apoplexy – revealed epidermically in long, tortuous “analyses” trying to explain why President Putin turned out to be the “geopolitical victor” of 2023, seducing vast swathes of the Arab world and the Global South, solidifying BRICS side by side with China, and propelling the EU further into a black void of its own – and the Hegemon’s – making.
Putin even allowed himself, half in jest, to offer Russian support for the potential “re-annexation” of country 404 border regions once annexed by Stalin, eventually to be returned to former owners Poland, Hungary & Romania. He added that he is 100% certain this is what residents of those still Ukrainian borders want.
Were that to happen, we would have Transcarpathia back to Hungary; Galicia and Volyn back to Poland; and Bukovina back to Romania. Can you feel the house already rocking to the break of dawn in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest?
Then there’s the possibility of the Hegemon ordering NATO’s junior punks to harass Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea and “isolate” St. Petersburg. It goes without saying that the Russian response would be to just take out Command & Control centers (hacking might be enough); burn electronics across the spectrum; and blockade the Baltic at the entrance by running a “Freedom of Navigation” exercise so everyone becomes familiar with the new groove.
That China-Russian Far East symbiosis
One of the most impressive features of the expanded Russia-China partnership is what is being planned for the Chinese northeastern province of Heilongjiang.
The idea is to turn it into an economic, scientific development and national defense mega-hub, centered on the provincial capital Harbin, complete with a new, sprawling Special Economic Zone (SEZ).
The key vector is that this mega-hub would also coordinate the development of the immense Russian Far East. This was discussed in detail at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last September.
In a unique, startling arrangement, the Chinese may be allowed to manage selected latitudes of the Russian Far East for the next 100 years.
As Hong Kong-based analyst Thomas Polin detailed, Beijing is budgeting no less than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) for the whole thing. Half of it would be absorbed by Harbin. The blueprint will reach the National People’s Congress next March, and is expected to be approved. It has already been approved by the lower house of the Duma in Moscow.
The ramifications are mind-boggling. We would have Harbin elevated to the status of direct-administered city, just like Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. And most of all a Sino-Russian Management Committee will be established in Harbin to oversee the whole project.
Top flight Chinese universities – including Peking University – would transfer their main campuses to Harbin. The universities of National Defense and National Defense Technology would merge with Harbin Engineering University to form a new entity focused on defense industries. High-tech research institutes and companies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen would also move to Harbin.
The People’s Bank of China would establish its HQ for northern China in Harbin, complete with markets trading stocks and commodities futures.
Residents of Heilongjiang would be allowed to travel back and forth to designated Russian Far East regions without a visa. The new Heilongjiang SEZ would have its own customs area and no import taxes.
That’s the same spirit driving BRI connectivity corridors and the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). The underlying rationale is wider Eurasia integration.
At the recent Astana Club meeting in Kazakhstan, researcher Damjan Krnjevic-Miskovic, Director of Policy Research at the ADA University in Baku, gave an excellent presentation on connectivity corridors.
He referred for instance to the C5+1 (five Central Asian “stans” plus China) meeting three months ago in Dushanbe joined by Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev: that translates as Central Asia-Caucasus integration.
Miskovic is paying due attention to everything that is evolving in what he defines, correctly, as “the Silk Road region” – interlinking the Euro-Atlantic with Asia-Pacific and interconnecting West Asia, South Asia and wider Eurasia.
Strategically, of course, that’s the “geopolitical hinge where NATO meets the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and where the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects with Turkiye and the territory of the EU.” In practical terms, Russia-China know exactly what needs to be done to propel economic connectivity and “synergistic relationships” all across this vast spectrum.
The War of Economic Corridors heats up
The fragmentation of the global economy is already polarizing the expanding BRICS 10 (starting on January 1st, under the Russian presidency, and without flirting-with-dollarization Argentina) and the shrinking G7.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko – a key Asia hand -, talking to TASS, once again reaffirmed that the key drive for the Greater Eurasia Partnership (official Russian policy) is to connect the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) with BRI.
As Russia develops a carefully calibrated balance between China and India, the same drive applies to developing the INSTC, where Russia-Iran-India are the main partners, and Azerbaijan is also bound to become a crucial player.
Add to it vastly improved Russian ties with North Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan (a BRI and SCO member) and ASEAN (except Westernized Singapore).
BRI, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty, is on a roll. I’ve just been to Moscow, Astana and Almaty for three weeks, and it was possible to confirm with several sources that trains in all connectivity corridors are packed to the hilt; via the Trans-Siberian; via Astana all the way to Minsk; and via Almaty to Uzbekistan.
Russian International Affairs Council Program Manager Yulia Melnikova adds that “Moscow can and should integrate more actively into transit operations along the China – Mongolia – Russia route” and accelerate the harmonization of standards between the EAEU and China. Not to mention invest further in Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic.
Enter President Putin, at a Russian Railways meeting, unveiling an ambitious, massive 10-year infrastructure expansion plan encompassing new railways and improved connectivity with Asia – from the Pacific to the Arctic.
The Russian economy has definitely pivoted to Asia, responsible for 70% of trade turnover amid the Western sanctions dementia.
So what’s on the menu ahead is everything from modernization of the Trans-Siberian and establishing a major logistical hub in the Urals and Siberia to improving port infrastructure in the Azov, Black, and Caspian Seas and faster INSTC cargo transit between Murmansk and Mumbai.
Putin, once again, almost as an afterthought, recently remarked that trade through the Suez Canal cannot be considered effective anymore, compared to Russia’s Northern Sea Route. With a single, sharp geopolitical move, Yemen’s Ansarullah has made it graphic – for everyone to see.
Russian development of the Northern Sea Route happens to run in total synergy with the Chinese drive to develop the Arctic leg of BRI. On the oil front, Russian shipments to China via its Arctic coast takes only 35 days: 10 days less than via Suez.
Danila Krylov, researcher with the Department of the Middle East and Post-Soviet Asia at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, offers a straightforward insight:
“I view the fact that the Americans are getting involved in Yemen as part of a great game [scenario]; there is more to it than just a desire to punish the Houthis or Iran, as it is more likely driven by a desire to prevent the monopolization of the market and hinder Chinese export deliveries to Europe. The Americans need an operational Suez Canal and a corridor between India and Europe, while the Chinese don’t want it because these are two direct competitors.”
It’s not that the Chinese don’t want it: with the Northern Sea Route up and running, they don’t need it.
Now freeze!
In sum: in the ongoing, ever more fractious War of Economic Corridors, the initiative is with Russia-China.
In desperation, and no more than an option-deprived, headless chicken victim in the War of Economic Corridors, the Hegemon’s EU vassals are resorting to twisting the Follow the Money playbook.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has defined the freezing of Russian assets – not only private, but also state-owned – by the EU as pure theft. Now Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is making it very clear that Moscow will react symmetrically to the possible use of income from these frozen Russian assets.
Paraphrasing Lavrov: you confiscate, we confiscate. We all confiscate.
The repercussions will be cataclysmic – for the Hegemon. No Global South nation, outside of NATOstan, will be “encouraged” to park its foreign currency/reserves in the West. That may lead, in a flash, to the whole Global South ditching the U.S.-led international financial system and joining a Russia-China-led alternative.
The peer-competitor Russia-China strategic partnership is already directly challenging the “rules-based international order” on all fronts – improving their historical spheres of influence while actively developing vast, interconnected connectivity corridors bypassing said “order”. That precludes, as much as possible, direct Hot War with the Hegemon.
Or to put it on Silk Road terms: while the dogs of war bark, lie and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on.
the virus itself; bacterial pneumonia secondary to viral infection was killer! hhmm, said IVM etc. for general use was MOOT, not needed, for high-risk, been widely available, but saved v few lives
In other words, the early treatment model he debated was needed, definitely, but that it was the anti-biotics (with additional anti-inflammatory and anti-viral properties e.g. doxycycline) that was the key ingredient of early treatment, the anti-infectives less so, and that it should have only been used for high-risk and not general population yet made available. In other words, treatment to be tailored and not carte blanche. Not leave the patient to turn blue. And with an understanding that COVID, severe COVID was more a blood clotting illness than a respiratory one where anti-coagulants were critical tin the therapeutic approach and early e.g. micro-thrombi.
We agreed that we were still not sure about what was released (intentional or by accident from some lab and where, maybe multiple release points and with more US involvement than we would care to want) or circulating, agreed that it had to be some form of respiratory pathogen or entity (given respiratory illnesses especially in our high-risk elderly) and even nano-mRNA or similar was dispersed, 😉 we let our thoughts take flight…we agreed that it had to be circulating, whatever it was, years before 2020 or 2019 & that the populations were already immune (to some extent) see Diamond Princess, USS Theodore Roosevelt;
And no doubt, via the precautionary principle, until clear definitive agents were available, we would use safe, effective, available, approved and repurposed therapeutics with a signal of benefit, combined and sequenced and dosed and timed appropriately under doctor care. This was early treatment. Yet carte blanche use of IVM and HCQ etc. (anti-virals) was not needed, MOOT, unhelpful. Most would have recovered on their own. As they did. Many also were likely already immune (natural immunity).
That no COVID vaccine, none, was ever needed. I agreed with that fully. Not even for elderly. Not in this case.
Hhhhmmm…what say you? Provacative??
We also agreed that the danger is from the mRNA technology underpinning gene based mRNA vaccines with an epidemic of coming cancer/dementia/heart failure/RT etc. — some conveniently 20 years downstream when the idiocrats and pathocrats are all dead.
What say you on early treatment, what an interesting debate to have.
It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine; it’s the spike protein, stupid, it’s the spike protein!
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7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
Europe Eyes Venezuelan Oil In Diversification Drive
Legal settlements involving PDVSA pave the way for increased oil production and export, particularly to energy-needy Europe.
Venezuela’s strategic position and vast oil reserves position it as a key player in the global oil market, offering Europe an alternative to Russian energy sources.
The developments promise economic revitalization for Venezuela and enhanced energy security for Europe amidst current global tensions.
The recent easing of sanctions between the United States and Venezuela, marked by pivotal legal settlements and new commercial arrangements, represents a significant turning point for the global energy industry.
These developments, particularly the resolution of disputes involving Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), signal the reinvigoration of Venezuela’s oil and gas sector and hold substantial promise for energy-hungry Europe.
The settlement between PDVSA and Refineria di Kòrsou (RdK), navigated by Dentons Europe LLP – led by David Syed, head of their Sovereign Advisory practice – brings to an end a longstanding impasse that had stifled the operational potential of RdK’s refinery and oil terminal in Curaçao since 2020.
Under this settlement, PDVSA will resume the supply of crude oil to RdK and initiate discussions on long-term gas supply, enabling RdK to recommence its operations. This development is a win for PDVSA and RdK and a strategic move that reopens crucial pathways in the Caribbean energy landscape.
Furthermore, the collaboration between PDVSA and Repsol Exploración, S.A. to bolster investment in their joint venture, Petroquiriquire, S.A., heralds a new era of increased production in the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.
A similar deal with ENI of Italy is imminently expected.
The intention to significantly boost overall production underlines a commitment to revitalize the national economy of Venezuela, a country with one of the world’s largest oil reserves but whose potential has been largely untapped due to political and economic challenges.
For Europe, these developments couldn’t be timelier. The continent benefits greatly, grappling with energy supply concerns exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and a push for diversification away from reliance on Russian energy sources.
Venezuela’s re-entry into the global oil and gas market as a significant player provides Europe with an alternative and potentially stable energy source. This could be instrumental in mitigating the current energy crisis and contributing to Europe’s energy security.
Venezuela’s strategic geographic location and colossal oil reserves make it an ideal candidate for European nations striving to diversify their energy sources. Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves, exceeding even those of Saudi Arabia.
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela’s proven oil reserves are estimated to be around 303.8 billion barrels, representing a significant portion of the global oil supply.
Before the sanctions and economic turmoil, Venezuela was producing about 2.4 million barrels per day. Though current production levels are significantly lower, there is potential for rapid growth given the country’s abundant reserves.
Oil output has already increased significantly over the last year under the leadership of Vice Delcy Rodríguez and Oil Minister Pedro Rafael Tellechea.
As of 2021, the European Union’s crude oil imports from Russia accounted for roughly 27% of its total oil imports, according to Eurostat. Replacing even a fraction of this with Venezuelan oil could significantly enhance Europe’s energy security.
Moreover, Venezuela’s location is advantageous for transatlantic trade. Its proximity to the Caribbean Sea provides direct maritime routes to European ports, potentially making oil and gas transportation more efficient and cost-effective compared to other global suppliers.
In essence, the sanctions relief deal and the subsequent legal and commercial maneuvers represent a recalibration of the global energy equation. For Venezuela, it marks a resurgence of its energy sector and a step towards economic recovery. For Europe, it offers a new avenue for securing energy resources, crucial for its economic stability and energy independence.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
ARGENTINA
Milei is doing the right thing here: he is slashing 5,000 government jobs from workers on the job since Jan 1.2023. He is an economist and is a strong proponent of the Austrian school
(Roberts.EpochTimes)
Argentina’s President Javier Milei Signs Decree Slashing 5,000 Government Jobs
Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei, has revealed plans to lay off an estimated 5,000 state employees hired this year before he took office, as part of wider efforts to slash government spending amid the backdrop of the country’s troubled economy.
Mr. Milei, an economist, signed a decree on Dec. 26 stating that his government won’t renew contracts for the thousands of government workers hired since Jan. 1, according to reports.
However, the decree, which was published in the Official Gazette, includes exceptions, such as in cases in which workers were hired as part of “quotas regulated by law or other types of special protections,” including those with disabilities and personnel who are considered “indispensable,” according to Spanish newspaper El Pais.
The decree also noted that other government contracts made before 2023 will also undergo an “exhaustive review” in the next 90 days, according to the publication.
Overall, Mr. Milei’s government estimates that more than 5,000 workers will lose their jobs, although the Association of State Workers (ATE), a workers union, anticipates some 7,000 employees could be affected.
Union Announces Planned Protests
In a statement on Dec. 26, ATE General Secretary Rodolfo Aguiar said the union planned to mobilize on Dec. 27 in various parts of the country to protest the decree.
“The workers in all cases perform tasks that are essential to guarantee the functioning of all areas of the state, regardless of the type of their contractual relationship,” Mr. Aguiar said.
The protests will include strikes, mobilizations, assemblies, and roadblocks, he added.
“We state officials are going to deepen our fight plan. We cannot be accused of attacking governance. It is clear that social peace is being broken by a government that intends to leave thousands of families on the streets. It is by being on the street that we are going to stop the government’s adjustments,” Mr. Aguiar said.
“If the government moves forward with these layoffs, workers and families will be directly affected, but indirectly, the entire community will be affected. In the state, any dismissal translates into a loss of rights for all our people,” he added.
Mr. Milei, 53, was inaugurated as Argentina’s president on Dec. 10 after defeating Sergio Massa, economy minister for Alberto Fernández’s socialist administration.
Era of ‘Peace and Prosperity’
During his first official speech, he vowed to bury what he described as “decades of failures, internal infighting, and senseless disputes” and embark on a new era of “peace and prosperity.”
He also warned Argentinians to prepare for an economic “shock” as a result of the various reforms he plans to introduce in the coming weeks and months, in an effort to transform Argentina’s struggling economy, stating there is “no possible alternative to the adjustments.”
“Neither is there a discussion between the shock and ‘gradualism’—first of all because experience shows that all ‘gradualist’ programs ended badly,” he added.
His comments come as inflation in Argentina has surged by 143 percent on an annual basis, with experts expecting it to reach about 200 percent by the end of the year.
The high cost of living and a surge in widespread looting and poverty is in part what led to Mr. Milei’s victory in the latest election, after many voters accused former leader Alberto Ángel Fernández of failing to take responsibility for the crippling downturn in the economy.
Along with reforming government spending and payrolls, Mr. Milei has also vowed to allow the privatization of state-owned media companies and state-run oil and gas firms such as oil giant YPF as a way to boost exports and investment in Argentina.
Additionally, his government had pledged to make cuts to energy and transportation subsidies and shut down some government ministries to rein in government spending.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1114 UP .0006
USA/ YEN 140.87 DOWN 0.568 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2755 UP .0029
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3226 UP .0020 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 20 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 40.09 PTS OR 1.38%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 418.69 PTS OR 2.52%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .71% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 418.69 PTS OR 2.52%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.09 PTS OR 1.38%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .71%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 141.62 PTS OR 0.42%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2074.80
silver:$24.29
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.46 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1075
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1164)
TURKISH LIRA: 29.46 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.595…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.825% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.971 UP 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.271 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 0.12 PTS OR .00%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 46.08 PTS OR .28%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 38.88 PTS OR .51%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 31.90 PTS OR .32%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 66.65 PTS OR .32%
WTI Oil price 73.75 12: EST
Brent Oil: 78.50 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.36; ROUBLE UP 1 AND 91//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.9390 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5175 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1065 DOWN 0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2725 DOWN .0072 or 72 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.524% UP 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.596%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.43 DOWN 0.080 //YEN UP 8 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3229 UP 0.0023 CDN dollar DOWN 23 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 72.00
Brent OIL: 77,34
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 3.844%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 3.994%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 4.291%
USA dollar index: 100.91 UP 25 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.44 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.36 UP 1 AND 91/100 roubles
GOLD 2067.80 3:30 PM
SILVER: 24.02 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 4.11 % PTS OR 0.14%
NASDAQ DOWN 8.33 PTS OR 0.049%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.49 UP .06 PTS 0.48%
GLD: $191.47 DOWN 1.12 OR 0.58%
SLV/ $22.99 DOWN .24 OR 1.08%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 04:00 PM
The penultimate trading day of the year was ‘mixed’ with Small Cap stocks and Treasury Bonds down; The dollar and The Dow up; and crypto, credit, and crude all falling as what little macro data there was disappointed (wholesale inventories declined for the 9th month in a row; claims rising more than expected and pending home sales weaker than expected).
March rate-cut odds remain around 85-90% with around 160bps of rate-cuts priced-in still for 2024.
“What we are seeing now is a bond carnival,” said Hideo Shimomura, a senior portfolio manager at Fivestar Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
“Bond investors have been hibernating and now I feel that their explosive desire is to come out of their lair.”
Small Caps were the day’s biggest losers as yields spiked with The Dow outperforming. But a late-day sell-off spoiled the party for the S&P 500 (but The Dow ended just green)…
The S&P traded up to 4793 intraday (just shy of the closing high of 4796), but a late-day selloff tested unchanged and managed to close just green…
The Dow and S&P are up for 13 of the last 15 days and the S&P 500 is on track for its 9th straight green week – the longest winning streak in 20 years.
The last time the S&P 500 did a 10-week streak was in 1985.
‘Most Shorted’ stocks squeezed higher once again at the open but were sold almost constantly after that…
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks were sold late-on but ended green as a basket…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets disagreed with equities today – for a recent change – with HYG (HY Corporate bond ETF) tumbling
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were sold today, hurt by an ugly tail for the 7Y auction, but remain lower on the holiday shortened week. A late-day buying program in bonds reduced the pain and left the belly underperforming (5Y +5bps, 2Y and 30Y +3bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The world’s debt market is on track to post its biggest two-month gain on record as traders ramp up expectations that central banks everywhere will slash interest rates next year.
Source: Bloomberg
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index has risen nearly 10% over November and December, its best two-month run in data going back to 1990.
“The ferocity of the bond market rally has really augmented the total returns for investors,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.
“There’s a feeling markets are signaling we’re heading half-way toward easy monetary policy again.”
The dollar rallied back from yesterday’s slump, erasing around half of that decline today…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum managed to cling to green today, but was well off its overnight highs by the end of the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin, however, was pummeled back below $42,500 before finding support…
Source: Bloomberg
Which combined means that ETH/BTC has broken the key resistance
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold hit $2088 highs overnight but faded all day with a good kick from Benoit as Europe opened…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended yesterday’s losses with WTI breaking down to a $71 handle – the lowest in a week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella notes, the S&P is in the 3rd wave of the 5-wave Elliott theory which is typically its most powerful and extended. Upon completion, the index will enter the 4th wave, a correction.
Source: Bloomberg
How far is anyone’s guess but the last one which began in January of 2022 lasted around 10 months for a 20-25% drop.
While a correction seems a certainty, there’s plenty of time left to devise a risk-off strategy of your choosing. The chart suggests the index may still climb above 4900 – a new record high – before rolling over.
MORNING TRADING//
“People Care About Prices, Jobs, & Mortgage Rates” – Art Laffer Blows Up ‘Bidenomics’ Bullshit
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 11:40 AM
“They care about prices, jobs and mortgage rates.”
Well known economist Art Laffer is astonished by the cognitive dissonance (or just plain partisanship) on display as mainstream media outlets echo The White House’s incredulity at the voting public’s lack of enthusiasm (or appreciation) for what President Biden has done for them.
But, Laffer has the answer for why President Biden’s ‘favorability’ is in the shitter while stocks are at record highs…
It comes down to three things, he explains on Fox Business.
Jobs
“People care about jobs, not about unemployment rates and so when you look at total jobs, it’s way down,” Laffer added.
“We have a very low employment rate even though the unemployment rate is low, people have just left the labor force. So jobs are way down which is what people feel.”
While the number of people not in the labor force is down from the peak of the COVID lockdowns, it is still massively higher than during Trump’s presidency and showing no signs of improving at all…
Prices
“People worry about prices, not about inflation,” Laffer said.
“Now inflation is related to prices over long periods of time but right now prices are up, I think it is 17.7% since Biden took office. Even though the inflation rate is down quite substantially, the prices are not down at all and it is prices that are killing people, so they obviously are upset.”
Inflation has risen 17.2% since Biden took office in January 2021.
And no, wages have not kept up with prices…especially for the lower-income Americans…
Mortgage Rates
High mortgage rates “put the American dream out of reach,” questioned the Fox Business anchor.
“It does, and that’s what people feel and know and what is reported, especially on other channels, by the way, but here too, what is reported is not really what people care about,” Laffer said.
Current mortgage rates – even after declining in recent weeks – remain over three percentage points higher than the average effective rate that American homeowners currently carry (or almost double)…
Laffer also notes that GDP growth is not quite what Biden is making it out to be:
“The last thing is GDP growth, this last quarter was almost 5%, which is a very nice number, except GDP is what’s really low. It’s not kept track with what happened after Trump left office,” Laffer added.
“It’s not caught back up yet at all and they are looking not at growth rates, people look at output, not at output growth.”
The post-COVID trend continues to lag…
“So,” concludes Laffer, taking into account “all of these things,there is a disconnect how people report the newsas being low inflation, low unemployment and very high GDP growth. No one cares about those, they care about the levels of this. So, that is why people are feeling bad. They will continue to feel bad for quite some time to come and they are correct.”
Translation: Bidenomics is bullshit and Americans know it – it has become a liability
Continuing Jobless Claims Hover Near Two-Year Highs At End 2023
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 08:35 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 206k to 218k in the week ending 12/23 (just off 2023 lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims rose modestly from 1.861 million Americans to 1.875 million (still below the 1.9mm Maginot Line, but basically at the highest in two years)…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the 218k increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March.
However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)…
Source: Bloomberg
Now, what will that do to wage inflation?
END
Not good!
U.S. trade deficit in goods widens in November for third straight month
Dec. 28, 2023 at 8:41 a.m. ET
MarketWatchTrade gap hits $90.3 billion, highest since July
The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 0.8% to $90.3 billion in November, according to the Commerce Department’s advance estimate, released Thursday.
Economists polled by Econoday were looking for the deficit to widen to $89.6 billion.
The report also showed a 0.2% decline in wholesale inventories in November. Advance retail inventories slipped 0.1%. Excluding cars, retail inventories were down a sharp 0.8%.
Key details: Both exports and imports declined in November.
Exports of goods dropped 3.6% to $165.1 billion in November. Imports fell 2.1% to $255.4 billion.
Big picture: Economists expect slowing in both exports and imports to continue given slow growth in major global trading partners. Trade is expected to be a modest drag on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.
end
Pending home sales flat in November despite drop in mortgage rates
Dec. 28, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Realtors see a surge in interest that could boost sales in coming months
The numbers: Pending home sales were flat in November compared with the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The Pending Home Sales Index remained at 71.6 in November from the prior month.
Economists were expecting the index to rise 1% in November, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.
Year-on-year, pending home sales are down 5.2%.
Key details: Sales were up in the Northeast, Midwest and West in November but dropped in the South.
Big picture: Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by a month or two. They have been on a downward trend this year.
With mortgage rates having declined over the past two months, economists see a modest rebound in home sales ahead.
This could cause housing inflation to remain elevated, complicating the Fed’s job to get inflation down to 2%, said Torsten Slock, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
What the NAR said: “Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement along with the data.
end
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
The biggest lie of the year: “the borders are not open@!!”
“This Might Be The Biggest Lie Of The Year From Biden Regime”
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27, 2023 – 11:30 PM
Had the Biden administration prioritized southern border security, significant efforts to resolve the crisis would likely have been completed by now instead of peddling blatant lies and half-truths to deflect the blame for their disastrous open border policies that have flooded the nation with millions of illegals (and individuals on the FBI’s terror watch list) ahead the 2024 presidential election cycle.
A large chunk of corporate progressive media outlets have been spoonfed propaganda from the White House this year to distract Americans with southern border misinformation.
The clearest misinformation campaign from the White House was in May, when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorka declared: “I want to be very clear, our borders are not open.”
“This might be the biggest lie of the year from the Biden regime,” X user Libs of TikTok wrote in a post.
Responding to Libs of TikTok’s post, X user RedWave Press said:
“This is a massive lie. The southern border is wide open and the Biden administration is funding the whole thing. Our country is going to be run into the ground by illegal immigrants if something doesn’t change.”
But the border lies don’t stop with Mayorka. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has been on the frontlines of spreading misinformation, saying President Biden has done “everything that he can” to secure the border.
“It’s just a blind spot for this entire White House, this entire administration, that would really prefer that they didn’t have to deal with any of the ramifications of the policy choices that they’ve made when it comes to the border and that Alexander Mayorkas has been so terrible at and actually implementing when it comes to the DHS policy involved,” Ben Domenech, the publisher and co-founder of The Federalist, recently told Fox Business’ Ashley Webster.
Endless border misinformation injected into corporate media by the White House has been on full display in recent days when the US Customs and Border Protection released data indicating a quarter of a million migrant encounters at the southern border in November – the busiest November on record.
Furthermore, the new website Muckrakerrevealed a treasure trove of “mass migration blueprints,” handed out by NGOs, or non-governmental organizations, across South and Central America to illegals with details about their route to the US.
“A lot of NGOs are helping Biden open the border to unlimited illegal crossing. But none of this could happen without the president’s approval,” Byron York, the chief political correspondent at the Washington Examiner, said last week.
The breaking point for law-abiding and tax-paying Americans has arrived. They’re tired of being lied to by radicals in the White House and corporate media. That’s why Biden’s polling data has plunged to record lows, and trust in media has imploded.
END
What did they expect with such a massive influx of illegal immigrants?
(zerohedge)
Democratic Mayors Of New York, Chicago, Denver Plead For Help As Migrant Storm Worsens
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 09:05 AM
The Democratic mayors of three sanctuary cities, Chicago, New York City, and Denver, warned their metro areas are quickly approaching a breaking point due to the ongoing surge of illegals bussed up from the southern border this year.
“We cannot allow buses with people needing our help to arrive without warning at any hour of day and night,” NYC Mayor Adams said during a virtual news conference with Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Denver Mayor Mike Johnston.
Adams warned: “For many months, we were able to keep the visualization of this crisis from hitting our streets, but we have reached a breaking point.”
“We are no longer able to do that because of the volume and numbers,” he added.
In an executive order, Adams has now requested all charter bus companies to provide a 32-hour advance notice on the arrival of migrants.
According to Adams’ office, more than 7,000 illegals have entered the intake system in the last two weeks. The city estimates 157,600 illegals have arrived since late spring.
In Chicago, another progressive metro area that once welcomed illegals with open arms, Mayor Johnson warned, “We have reached a critical point in this mission that absent real, significant intervention immediately, our local economies are not designed and built to respond to this type of crisis,” adding “We are literally building a system as we go along.”
Adams’ and Johnson’s complaints about the migrant crisis were similar to those of Mayor Mike Johnston of Denver. He said, “We, at this point now, have had more migrant arrivals in our city than any city in America per capita.”
In a press release, the mayors called the influx of migrants in their cities a “humanitarian crisis” and urged “all levels of government and our federal partners” to provide assistance to ensure migrants “are treated with dignity and humanity.”
The trio of mayors blamed the migrant crisis on Texas Governor Greg Abbott, indicating Abbott “triples down on efforts to use asylum seekers as political pawns.”
However, the mayors, for good reason and likely fear of retribution, entirely omit that the Biden administration’s disastrous open southern border policies are at the center of what sparked the invasion of millions of migrants (and individuals on the FBI’s terror watch list) from all over the world into the US ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
It has been nine months since the spectacular and sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
After witnessing three of the four largest bank failures in U.S. history in 2023, the attention of the media and the markets has turned elsewhere. Banking crisis? It is as though it never happened. Having fallen by some 40 percent in March, the NASDAQ Bank Index has recovered to within 15 percent of its high from February. In the last few months, nearly all markets have gone on a bull run, including bank stocks.
Yet, and despite the relative quiet, the banking sector is not in great shape. Here are some of the reasons why.
Banks continue to lose deposits. According to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance. Corp. (FDIC), U.S. banks have now lost deposits for six consecutive quarters. While the pace has slowed from the first quarter of 2023, in which nearly $500 billion of deposits were removed from the banking system, approximately $190 billion of deposits have been withdrawn in the last two quarters. Indeed, U.S. banks have lost a net $1.1 trillion of deposits since the beginning of 2022 when interest rates began to rise.
With customer deposits growing scarce, U.S. banks are instead relying on emergency funding lines from the Federal Reserve Banks and the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system. FHLB bond capital raising, of which the proceeds are used to fund the banks, is up 89 percent year over year through November and looks set to reach $1.1 trillion for 2023. Use of the Bank Term Funding Program, the emergency line put in place by the Fed in March 2023, reached an all-time high last week at $131.3 billion.
This does not reflect normal market operations.
This is a sign that the bank funding markets aren’t operating properly, and that the regulators are stepping in to help prop up the system.
[ZH: Additionally, that bailout program from The Fed is due to end in March. What happens then?]
The growing gap between the rate on the Federal Reserve’s nascent funding facility and what the central bank pays institutions parking reserves suggests officials will let the program expire in March, according to Wrightson ICAP.
“In justifying the generous terms of the original program, the Fed cited the ‘unusual and exigent’ market conditions facing the banking industry following last spring’s deposit runs,” Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall wrote in a note to clients.
“It would be difficult to defend a renewal in today’s more normal environment.”
What happens then?]
So much for the liabilities side. But banks face challenges on the asset side as well.
Unrealized losses on investment securities, which is the same problem that got SVB into trouble a year ago, continue to rise. U.S. banks reported unrealized losses of over $684 billion in the third quarter, up 22 percent from the second quarter. Of these unrealized losses on securities, $294 billion are categorized as available for sale (AFS), as opposed to held to maturity (HTM), whereby the bank intends to hold the asset and (hopefully) recapture principle at the end of the term. The high amount of AFS suggests that if interest rates remain “higher for longer,” then a portion of these losses will begin to realize in 2024 as they are sold by the banks. This will pressure profitability and capital levels.
Net income is declining across the banking system generally, but particularly among the smaller community banks. Credit quality is deteriorating, but has not yet reached crisis level. Commercial real estate continues to drive the increase in problem loans.
To grow (or at least slow the decline) of deposits, banks are going to have offer rates that are somewhat competitive with money market funds (considering that bank deposits are insured by the FDIC and thus relatively safe), and that offer positive real (i.e., after inflation) returns. With inflation persisting in the range of 3–4 percent, this means that banks will have to offer 4–5 percent to be relevant. This isn’t going to work for the banks. They won’t be able to maintain profitability. And it won’t work for the U.S. Treasury, which itself is committed to trillion-dollar bond issuances each quarter, which also must offer a positive interest rate above investor perceptions of inflation and the deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. government.
If funding costs rise further, or if unrealized losses begin to realize, banks will start taking hits to their capital levels. This will spook the markets, including depositors, and we may find ourselves in round two of deposit runs. To head off these challenges, some banks are looking to merge. There have been 78 bank deals announced in the second half of 2023, mostly among the smaller and community banks. But this won’t work in many situations where the result is the proverbial “two drunks holding each other up.”
Investor optimism is permeating markets going into year-end, with most all asset classes continuing to rise. But we must not lose sight of the banks. They are not out of the woods yet. While there is a “goldilocks” scenario in which the banking sector makes a soft landing, the risk of another set of bank failures in 2024 remains meaningful.
END
21 SPAC companies go bust in 2023 wiping out $46 billion
(zerohedge)
21 SPAC Companies Go Bust, Wiping out $46 Billion In Equity
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 06:55 AM
An increasing number of startups that have merged with special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are running out of cash and unable to raise new funds in a deteriorating macro environment with high interest rates.
At least 21 companies that went public via SPACs filed for bankruptcy this year, wiping out $46 billion in total equity, according to Bloomberg data. Some of the largest bankruptcies were WeWork, Lordstown Motors, and Virgin Orbit.
The failures of coworking space, electric vehicle, and space launch startups exemplify that these companies were never “ready for primetime” on public markets, said Gary Broadbent, an executive guiding former SPAC AppHarvest Inc.
WeWork was the highest-profile SPAC implosion of the year. It was once valued at $9.4 billion after going public in 2021. This blow-up exemplifies the bubbles the Federal Reserve blows in a near-zero interest rate environment, with the eventual implosion when rates rise (or before, in anticipation of higher rates).
Usha Rodrigues, a law professor at the University of Georgia, said the SPAC bubble during Covid was a “ticking time bomb” of corporate failures and “Everyone should have seen this cliff coming.”
Bloomberg data shows about 140 SPACs desperately need financing in 2024 to keep operations humming. Elevated interest rates will make refinance challenging and increase the risk of more bankruptcies.
Hudson Labs shows about 44% of SPAC companies that filed annual reports in 2023 have stated going-concern warnings compared with 22% of non-SPAC companies.
However, the Fed’s pivot this month could be the biggest lifeline for these startups as rate traders prices in 6 interest rate cuts through December 2024.
The pandemic-fueled frenzy has been over for two years, and the failures will likely accelerate in the first quarter.
END
Growth in new car prices//USA
(zerohedge)
Visualizing The Growth Of New Car Prices In The US
THURSDAY, DEC 28, 2023 – 05:45 AM
New car prices have soared in recent years.
As a result, those looking for a cheap new car have very few options in today’s market. While average transaction prices for new cars declined 1.4% year-over-year as of October, they have increased to an average price of $47,936—roughly a 60% increase over the last decade.
A host of factors can explain the jump in new car prices.
These include more standard features (which drives up the base cost of a vehicle), as well as shifting consumer preferences towards pricier crossovers & SUVs.
Supply chain issues during the COVID-19 pandemic also sent prices skyrocketing, though they’ve come down slightly throughout 2023.
While the average transaction price of a Tesla falls around $53,000, there are options from other car makers that are more affordable. Here are new cars with a starting price below $20,000:
The above low cost vehicles are all from legacy car makers. These companies have the advantage of accessing large amounts of capital, manufacturing skills, and powerful brands.
Still, as the industry evolves, the new companies driving electric vehicle production could reshape the industry, presenting challenges for legacy companies.
END
This is a major problem for the uSA who have lost policing powers for the globe
(RealClearWire/Buccino)
A Shrunken Arsenal: The Alarming Decline Of U.S. Munitions
As fighting rages in the Middle East and Europe and China looms as a threat, America’s dwindling arsenal of high-end munitions emerges as an alarming crisis. The United States, once a fortress of military might, now faces the prospect of a munitions deficit in an era brimming with uncertainties. This desperate situation demands the development of a national critical munitions stockpile.
Europeanweapons makers are overwhelmed and struggling to meet Ukraine’s consumption ofmore than 6,000 artillery rounds each day during peak counteroffensive fighting. Ukraine’s ability to stave off defeat and defend itself against the Russian invasion largely depends on an uninterruptedsupply of these rounds. Ukrainian forces are conserving their ammunition supply, which might lead to postponements in upcoming counterattacks. Over the coming months, this shortage of ammunition could compel Ukrainian military units to make difficult choices regarding the allocation of resources across various frontlines, focusing on areas where maintaining control is most crucial and potentially allowing minor territorial losses in less critical sectors.
Last year, to help meet the demand for Ukrainian munitions, the Pentagon tapped into a stockpile of American 155mm rounds in Israel, sending hundreds of thousands to Ukraine. These rounds, stored for decades in Israeli bunkers, are to provide an Israeli qualitative military edge, a pillar of American policy in the Middle East. Now Israel needs them back to target Hamas’s command cells in its war in Gaza. The U.S. is supporting two countries, both of which use enormous amounts of 155-millimeter artillery and other ammunition in wars that may stretch on for many months. Running out of ideas, last month the Pentagon established a team to examine American inventories to identify ammunition for Israel. Earlier this month, Senator Deb Fischer, a senior Senate Armed Services Committee member,remarked that the U.S. must expand its munitions production capability.
Once a conflict begins it can lead to extraordinarily high munitions consumption. The fighting in Ukraine should serve as a warning regarding production of munitions the U.S. would need in a conflict with China over Taiwan. The U.S. must resolve the extensive issues within its munitions manufacturing processes ahead of a conflict with China.
American forces requirean enormous volume of critical munitions to fight against a technologically advanced military force. This ammo is also necessary to equip partner forces in Asia, such as Australia, with thelong-range anti-ship munitions needed to defeat the Chinese flotilla or prevent it from ever embarking. The stockpile also ensures that American industrial output is sustained in times of crisis and preserves the United States’ global military edge.
The U.S. also provides Taiwan with munitions sufficient to blunt an initial Chinese blow. This strategy – codified by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act – involves ensuring Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities against a Chinese attack. The U.S. arms Taiwan only to a level that does not disrupt the diplomatic equilibrium between Washington and Beijing. But, there is growing concern in the Pentagon and the Indo-Pacific that Taiwan does not have enough of the high-tech munitions to hold off a PRC attack. Here again, the shrinking U.S. munitions reserve represents a risk.
To arm our allies and partners and our own forces to deter and, if necessary, fight a major theater war, the United States requires a critical munitions stockpile. This reserve will enable the Department of Defense to restore essential munitions stocks vital for maintaining air dominance, defending against air and missile threats, and targeting hard and deeply buried objectives.
ThePROCURE Act, introduced by a bipartisan group of senators in the previous Congress, would go a long way toward building this stockpile. The legislation aims to establish a $500 million per year revolving fund in the Treasury Department for the Pentagon to procure critical munitions. This fund would allow the Defense Department to swiftly replenish high-demand munitions supplied to partner countries in future conflicts, using profits from theU.S. Foreign Military Sales program. The act is designed to support democratic nations and protect American interests overseas, allowing the Pentagon to continuously order critical munitions. The Senate Armed Services Committee should push to get the PROCURE act passed into law.
In addition, we must expand theNational Defense Stockpile, a largely obscure reserve of raw material based in Fort Belvoir, Virginia, with operations throughout the United States. The National Defense Stockpile holds an emergency supply of50 critical minerals. Many of these minerals, such asaluminum, titanium, and magnesium, are used in the production of munitions. The value of materials in the U.S. National Defense Stockpile has drastically decreased from$42 billion in 1952 to less than $1 billion today. America’s mineral reserves are significantly lower than China’s, with the National Defense Stockpile maintaining only 300 metric tons of cobalt compared to China’s7,000 metric tons. Congress must expand the National Defense Stockpile to support a potential major theater war.
Our munitions stockpiles and production capacity are not just inadequate; they are a glaring vulnerability in our national defense strategy. We must act with resolve and urgency to revitalize our defense industrial base and expand our reservoir of munition-production minerals. Nothing less than our national interests and global stability is at stake.
Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army Colonel who serves as a Senior Research Analyst for the Defense Innovation Board. He served as the communications director for U.S. Central Command from April 2021 to July 2023.
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IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
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USA// COVID//VACCINE/
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SWAMP STORIES
House Republicans Zero In On ‘Impeachable Offense’ If Biden Was Involved In Hunter Subpoena Dodge
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27, 2023 – 05:05 PM
House Republicans are investigating whether President Biden was involved in his son Hunter’s “scheme” to duck out on a Congressional subpoena to testify earlier this month, which they say “could constitute an impeachable offense.”
Three House committees; Oversight, Judiciary and Ways & Means, announced on Wednesday that they are investigating “whether sufficient grounds exist to draft articles of impeachment against President Biden for consideration by the full House,” Fox News reports.
In a letter to White House Counsel Edward Siskel notifying him of the additional area of their investigations, Comer and Jordan said: “In light of an official statement from the White House that President Biden was aware in advance that his son, Hunter Biden, would knowingly defy two congressional subpoenas, we are compelled to examine as part of our impeachment inquiry whether the President engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress.”
Hunter Biden was scheduled to appear on Dec. 13 before the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees, and instead, held an impromptu press conference on Capitol Hill, where he claimed: “My father was not financially involved ion my business. Not as a practicing lawyer. Not as a board member of Burisma. Not in my partnership with a Chinese private businessman. Not in my investments at home nor abroad, and certainly not as an artist.”
Hunter instead said that he would “only testify in a public forum, a demand for special treatment that the Committees had previously rejected.”
“Although Mr. Biden professed an interest in answering questions about his actions, he departed the Capitol grounds without taking any questions. The committees subsequently recorded Mr. Biden’s non-appearance at his deposition,” they continued.
What does Joe think about people who dodge subpoenas?
In response to Hunter skipping out, Comer wrote: “Hunter Biden today defied lawful subpoenas and we will now initiate contempt of Congress proceedings,” adding “We will not provide special treatment because his last name is Biden.”
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THE KING REPORT
The King Report December 28, 2023 Issue 7148
Independent View of the News
Toyota’s global output surges to record in November on strong demandOutput for November climbed to 926,573 vehicles, while worldwide sales increased 14% from a year earlier… http://reut.rs/3vlNHGt SCMP: ‘Get bolder, please’: China’s economic powerhouses go all out to lift exports amid Beijing’s urge for more responsibilities Exporters in Zhejiang province have been told to aim high in 2024 with their growth targets to help China’s economic recovery But experts warn despite local government assistance, some ‘structural or political’ obstacles to foreign trade need Beijing’s help https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3246273/get-bolder-please-economic-powerhouse-all-out-lift-exporter-initiative-amid-beijings-urge-bigger @YuanTalks: China’s shipping index futures continue to rally, the with most-traded Containerized Freight Index (Europe Service) futures contract, surging by daily limit of 20%, bringing 8-day gains to nearly 95%…https://t.co/haGgRmRP6LXi vows to resolutely stop anyone from ‘making Taiwan secede from China’https://t.co/cbsVVHgg0xXi described the need for the Chinese Communist Party to launch an overarching policy for “resolving the Taiwan question in the new era,” along with maintaining Beijing’s “one-China principle” and the purported “1992 consensus.” Xi urged steps to “advance integrated development in all fields” across the strait and the advancement of peaceful development of cross-strait ties. He then vowed to resolutely prevent anyone from “making Taiwan secede from China by any means.” @RailwayAge: U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 23, 2023 (Week 51), came in at 486,787 carloads and intermodal units, rising 24.2% from the same week last year, AAR reports: @RealEJAntoni: If the Fed just holds M2 steady (has been for over 7 months already) from now until Apr, then Y/Y change will be positive again; the talking heads telling you M2 is collapsing or catastrophic deflation is coming are simply clueless: https://t.co/c7NxLtk8HuFinancial conditions have now loosened so much that we’re approaching ’21 levels – market participants really underestimated sterilization effect of reverse repos; in fact, most of them probably have no idea how it works which means they also don’t know what’s coming in ’25…https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1740085546431725768 @zerohedge: This has been the biggest two-month easing in financial conditions in history, surpassing the announcements of QE1, 2, 3, and so on. The market has priced in 136bps, or 5.5x rate cuts since the start of November. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1739846854005633255 ESHs hit a daily high of 4830.00 7 minutes after the 18:00 ET Nikkei opening. They commenced a decline that had wild swings punctuated by spike rallies that quickly reversed into declines. ESHs hit a daily low of 4818.00 at 10:48 ET. ESHs went nearly vertical at the 11:30 ET European close on this: “Apple scored a victory as a US appeals court paused a government commission’s ban on some of its popular Apple smartwatches following a patent dispute with medical technology firm Masimo.” – Reuters While ESHs declined during European and early US trading, USHs rallied sharply. USHs hit a daily high of 125 14/32 (+1 6/32) near the European close. USHs rallied to 125 23/32 (+1 15/32) at 13:06 ET after a good 5-year note auction ($58B): 3.801% vs 3.815% WI. USHs hit a high of 125 29/32 (+1 21/32). ESHs hit 4827.75 at 12:20 ET and then rolled over. ESHs fell to 4820.50 at 12:43 ET and then soared to a daily high of 4835.00 at 13:06 ET due to a good US 5-year note auction. ESHs retreated to 4828.75 at 13:26 ET. After a modest bounce, ESHs tumbled to a new daily low of 4816.50 at 14:04 ET. Once again, ESHs spiked higher hitting 4828.00 at 14:26 ET; and once again, sellers reappeared. For the remainder of the session, ESHs gyrated wildly until they spiked to a new high during the final 6 minutes. China and India Account for More Than 90% of Russian Oil and Fuel ExportsChina now accounts for 45% to 50% of Russian oil and fuel exports, while India is taking in 40%, Novak (Deputy PM) said. The increase is particularly remarkable for India, where Russia exported almost no oil whatsoever until 2022. “If earlier we exported around 40-45% of our total crude oil and refined products to Europe, by the end of this year we expect this share to have fallen to 4-5%,” Novak said…https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-and-India-Account-for-More-Than-90-of-Russian-Oil-and-Fuel-Exports.htmlJPMorgan earned one-fifth of total US bank profits through September: ‘Goliath of Goliaths’https://trib.al/EHeA1iaPositive aspects of previous sessionThe DJIA, Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 made all-time highs Negative aspects of previous sessionPrecious metals rallied sharply; gold gained as much as 1.25% and closed at a record highThe DJTA was soft all session and declined 78.32 for the session. Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionBonds rallied sharply, probably on recession angst/defensive asset allocationESHs traded sideways with 14 distinct swings during the day due to the thin market First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up;Last Hour: UpPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4778.62Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4785.39; 4768.90 @LucasFoxNews: First time in history a U.S. warship has shot down a ballistic missile in combat.Happened 3x yesterday. https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1739746985652158755 @seanmdav: Democrats spent decades trying to block missile defense, claiming it would never work. The reality was that they wanted to send the money to countries that hate the U.S.Turkey’s Erdogan says Israeli PM Netanyahu no different from Hitler – Reuters @IsraeliPM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Turkish President Erdogan’s remarks: “Erdogan, who is committing genocide against the Kurds and who holds the world record for imprisoning journalists who oppose his regime, is the last person who can preach morality to us. @LarryDJonesJr: Does anyone really care anymore that New York is dealing with Pro-Palestinian protesters blocking the road leading to JFK Airport? It sounds to me like they asked for it, and if they choose to be soft on crime, then they should deal with it. Maybe they should enforce the laws!https://twitter.com/LarryD..JonesJr/status/1740074300034658390 Fox News: Pro-Palestine protesters block main entrance to LAX on busy travel day, cops making arrests The Nikkei: Putin promises Xi to ‘fight for five years’ in UkraineMeant to keep China on Russia’s side, the words in March prompted Beijing to hedge its bets The likely implication was that a protracted war would favor China’s well-armed partner. Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance… Recently, The New York Times reported that since at least September Putin has been using intermediaries to signal that he is open to a cease-fire on condition that Russia can keep the territories it now occupies… It could be that Putin wishes to merely create the illusion that he is moving toward a cease-fire or even peace ahead of Russia’s presidential election in March, believing such an atmosphere would favor him at the polls… But it is unlikely Xi was fully convinced by Putin’s remark. Xi already holds a grudge against Putin dating back to a China-Russia summit held Feb. 4, 2022, the opening day of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Putin was the only leader from a major power to attend the opening ceremony, and Xi had staked his reputation on China successfully hosting the international sporting extravaganza. The Russian leader fully took advantage of China’s sense of indebtedness to him… During the Winter Olympics summit, Putin showed no sign he was about to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But that invasion did come, on Feb. 24… The surprise attack left China panicked… Thus, China simply could not afford to completely trust Putin’s ‘will fight for five years’ remark that came a year later… Putin’s March remark about prolonging the Ukraine war, can have ramifications on the security of Japan and the entire Indo-Pacific region.https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-Putin-promises-Xi-to-fight-for-five-years-in-UkraineIDF pounds central Gaza as fighting intensifies on Lebanese border, threatens to engulf regionhttps://trib.al/wlmMuyb @McClellanOsc: On Dec. 26, Nasdaq total volume was over 2x that of NYSE, part of an ongoing trend. This chart shows a 10MA of the daily NQ/NY TVOL ratio. High readings like this pretty reliably mark price tops, with one notable exception in April 2023. https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1740035924602638823 @TradingThomas3: Tuesday’s NYSE volume registered at 53% of the 30-day average, talk about light volume day which likely continues for rest of this week.Today – The Santa Rally window is still open. Traders will keep buying dips. The equity rally was thwarted yesterday by apparent defensive asset allocation. The absence or presence of defensive asset allocators will be an important factor today. With only 2 sessions remaining in 2023, traders and money managers will be anxious to markup their holdings to embellish 2023 performance. ESHs are +4.75; USHs are -10/32; and Feb AU is -1.50 at 20:15 ET. Expected economic data: Nov Trade -$88.9B; Nov Wholesale Inventories -0.2% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.2%; Initial Jobless Claims 210k, Continuing Claims 1.875m; Nov Pending Home Sales 0.9% S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4468; 100-day MA: 4438; 150-day MA: 4423; 200-day MA: 4336DJIA 50-day MA: 35,137; 100-day MA: 34,728; 150-day MA: 34,574; 200-day MA: 34,242(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 3919.56 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4432.43 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD arepositive – a close below 4695.71 triggers a sell signalHourly: Trender and MACD arepositive – a close below 4760.02 triggers a sell signal @foxnewspolitics: House GOP probing if Biden was involved in Hunter’s ‘scheme’ to defy subpoena, potential ‘impeachable offense’Obama shaped CIA to boost his political agenda, hired leftist activists, former agent saysObama and his appointees “made and institutionalized significant changes, largely by creating new structures, policies, and incentives designed to alter organizational cultures in ways congruent with Obama’s political agenda,” Gentry wrote…https://justthenews.com/government/security/obama-shaped-cia-boost-his-political-agenda-hired-leftist-activists-former#dig-deeperHarvard president Claudine Gay is now accused of botching study that landed her major tenure at Stanford and refusing to share research with professors who questioned her thesis over ‘logical inconsistencies’ https://t.co/0QpiYEsVfhAustrian university severs ties with Harvard over antisemitism concerns – The Jerusalem Posthttps://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-7796711 in 5 Illinois adults is illiterate, but it’s 1 in 4 in Cook County (Chicago)https://www.illinoispolicy.org/1-in-5-illinois-adults-is-illiterate-but-its-1-in-4-in-cook-county/ @visegrad24: The official death toll of the Christmas mass-murder on Christians by Muslims in Nigeria has risen to 198. 20 villages were attacked. In some cases, people were murdered in churches where they had gathered to celebrate Christmas. Any protest marches planned in London? Ann Coulter: Happy Kwanzaa! The Holiday Brought to You by the FBICelebrated exclusively by white liberals, Kwanzaa is a fake holiday invented in 1966 by black radical/FBI stooge Ron Karenga — aka Dr. Maulana Karenga, founder of United Slaves, the violent nationalist rival to the Black Panthers…The FBI fueled the bloody rivalry between the Panthers and United Slaves. In the annals of the American ’60s, Karenga was the Father Gapon, stooge of the czarist police. Whether Karenga was a willing FBI dupe or just a dupe remains unclear… The esteemed Cal State professor’s invented holiday is a nutty blend of schmaltzy ’60s rhetoric, black racism and Marxism… Kwanzaa emerged not from Africa, but from the FBI’s COINTELPRO. It is a holiday celebrated exclusively by idiot white liberals. Black Americans celebrate Christmas.https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/happy-kwanzaa-the-holiday-brought-c17 PS – In 1971, he (Karenga) was convicted of felony assault, torture, and false imprisonment of women.
![posts[i].image.ImageName (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)](https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/q_auto/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_537,w_822/553050 "Police and security personnel at Mazmuria checkpoint, near har Homa neighborhood of East Jerusalem, where a Palestinian man attempted to stab police officers at the checkpoint, September 18, 2023")
Police and security personnel at Mazmuria checkpoint, near har Homa neighborhood of East Jerusalem, where a Palestinian man attempted to stab police officers at the checkpoint, September 18, 2023. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
![posts[i].image.ImageName (photo credit: VIA REUTERS)](https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/q_auto/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_537,w_822/513742 "A drone is launched during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on August 25, 2022")
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