JAN 4//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.60 TO $2042.70//SILVER CLOSED UP $0.05 TO $23.00//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $29.30 TO $958.30 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $42,20 TO $1038.40//GOLD COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM PETER SCHIFF AND GATA//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH: HEZBOLLAH FINALLY RETREATS TO A LINE 2 KILOMETERS FROM THE BORDER//OTHER UPDATES ON ISRAEL IN THE WEST BANK//USA STRIKES IRAQI MILITANTS IN IRAQ//COVID AND VACCINE UPDATES: FLORIDA HALTS ALL USE OF THE COVID VACCINE//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA DATA: THE NORMALLY EBULLIENT ADP REPORTS SHOWS BIG LOSS IN USA MANUFACTURING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 20 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 19 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 16 2 690 C ABN AMRO 8 737 C ADVANTAGE 23 6
TOTAL: 48 48 MONTH TO DATE: 2,686
JPMorgan stopped 2/48 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 48 NOTICES FOR 4800 OZ or 0.1493 TONNES
total notices so far: 2686 contracts for 268,600 oz (8.354 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 151 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 755,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 505 for 2,525,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $7.60/
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 5 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.056 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 11 CONTRACTS TO 134,736 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0.78 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (WITH HUGE SHORT COVERING BUT AT LOWER PRICES) AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1880 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1880CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.78), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2264 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC SIZED 2253 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,945,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON NEW TOTALS 5.770 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 5.770 MILLION OZ
//TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1880 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED – 1337CONTRACTS //CROOKS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 2738 contracts: OR 13.695MILLION OZ (912 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.695 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24: 13.695 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 11CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2253 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,945,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW TOTAL 4.770 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 5.770 MILLION OZ/
NEW STANDING 5.770 million OZ /// WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2264OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1880CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH SOME SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1880) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 151 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 755,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3275 CONTRACTS TO 497,089 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +added 199 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3275 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $29.40 LOSSIN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 8.5038 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $29.40 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1824OI CONTRACTS (5.673)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5099CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497,089
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1824 CONTRACTS WITH 3275 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5099EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1824 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD SIZED 1880 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5099CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3275) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1824 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.5038 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH SOME SHORT LIQUIDATION AT THE LOWER PRICES// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1913CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 9044 CONTRACTS OR 904,400OZ OR 28.130 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3014 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 28.130 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 28.130/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.79% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 28.130 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF DEC. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 11CONTRACTS OI TO 134,736 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2253 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 2253 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2253 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 11 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2253 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2264CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 11.32 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.90 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 0.43 PTS OR 0.00% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 175.88 PTS OR .53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.34% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1511 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1596 /Oil UP TO 73.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.88/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3275 CONTRACTS TO 497,089 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.40 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH FEW SPEC SHORT COVERINGS
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5099 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 5099 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5099CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1824 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5099LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3474 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.40//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 1933 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//.
// WE HAVE A LIGHT AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (8.5038 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 8.5038 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $29.40) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF1824TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A GOOD T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 5.054PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.1181 TONNES)/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $29.40.
WE HAD =added 199 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1824 CONTRACTS OR 182,400 OZ OR 5.673 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 135,360 dreadful
final gold volumes/yesterday 253,003// raid volume/fair
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2686 notices 268,600 oz 8.354 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposit:
i) Into ASAHI: 771.624 oz
24 kilobars
total dealer deposits: 771.624 oz
customer deposits: 0
we had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 96 contracts having LOST 399 contracts. We had 437 notices served on Wednesday, so we gained 38 contracts or an additional 3800 oz will stand for delivery at the comex
FEB LOST 11,184 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 365,619
March gained 16 contracts to stand at 45.
APRIL GAINED 8263 CONTRACTS RISING TO 75,938.
We had 151 contracts filed for today representing 15,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 16 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 48 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2,686 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (96 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 48 x 100 oz per contract equals 273,400 OZ OR 8.5038 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN.contract month: No of notices filed so far (2,686) x 100 oz + (96) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (48) x 100 oz) which equals 273,400oz standing OR 8.5038 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 8.5038 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 20,036,481.348 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,254,039.353 (318,94 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,782,441.995 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,742,207 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 271.91 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 4/INITIAL
//2023// THE JAN 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
4,127.629 oz Delaware Brinks
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
593,594.650 OZ ASAHI
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
20,253,15 oz
cnt
No of oz served today (contracts)
151 CONTRACT(S) (755,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
449 contracts (2,245,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
505 Contracts (2,525,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into ASAHI 593,594.650 oz
total dealer deposit: 593,594.650 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 133.1390 million oz/280.535 million or 47.50%
Comex withdrawals
out of cnt: 20,253.15 cnt
total withdrawals 20, 253.15oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.255 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 280.55 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 600 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 706 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 317 NOTICES SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE LOST 389 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,945,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AS THEY WERE FERRIED OVER IMMEDIATELY TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. VERY UNUSUAL TO SEE THAT QUANTITY OF SILVER MOVE OVER TO LONDON.
FEB GAINED 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 657
MARCH GAINED 1441 CONTRACTS TO 111,969
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 151 for 1,945,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 505 x 5,000 oz = 2,535,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (600) and the number of notices served upon today 151 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 505 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (600) – number of notices served upon today (151 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 4.770 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 5.770 million oz/
New total standing: 5.770 million oz.
There are 46.255 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
DEC11/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $30,80 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // A WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.83 TONNES
DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.12 TONNES
DEC 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.82 TONNES
DEC 1/WITH GOLD UP $32.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.51 TONNES
NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.53 TONNES
NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNE
NOV 27/WITH GOLD UP $9,85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: // / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 874.21 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
DEC 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.648 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.735 MILLION OZ
DEC 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: // //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.090 MILLION OZ
DEC 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.7333 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.395 MILLION OZ
DEC 1/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.923 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.128 MILLION OZ
NOV 30/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.051 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 435.056 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: 2024 Could Be Horrible For The Dollar
Peter Schiff left a stark warning in his recent podcast: “2024 could be a horrible year for the dollar.”
Here are 3 big reasons why Peter thinks inflation might rise even higher this year.
1. The Fed wants to boost Biden’s reelection
The Fed is deeply influenced by political dynamics and, with the 2024 presidential election around the corner, it’s already maneuvering to align with the political incumbent.
“I think that the Fed is going to be doing everything it can to try to reelect Biden or whoever may run if Biden does not… The Fed chairman always wants to play ball with whichever Administration is in power.”
This has less to do with blatant political bias and more to do with self-preservation.
The President plays a decisive role in appointing the Fed chair. Given this, Jerome Powell is incentivized to prioritize monetary policies that could boost a Biden reelection. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
The Fed already announced considerably lower interest rates in 2024 through 2025, strategically timed for this year’s US election.
Peter predicts that the Fed will continue its dovish, inflationary policies through the end of this election year.
2. US Economic “Strength” Rides on Inflation
The perceived strength of the US economy is largely illusory, a facade created by inflationary policies rather than genuine economic growth.
Peter explains that higher stock market indexes and other financial indicators in 2023 reflect investor expectations of inflationary Fed stimulus rather than genuine economic progress:
“Investors are anticipating a big bond rally. That’s what they think. The Fed is going to going to go back to zero or close to it back to quantitative easing. And so they’re factoring all this in. They’re pricing this easing cycle into the markets now. They’re betting on it.”
Rather than ruin the bets of the broader economy and suffer a massive stock market collapse, the Fed would rather keep monetary policy loose. Congress, too, would prefer to maintain high budgets than risk losing reelection.
This all drives up inflation, which Peter dubs as “the only magic trick they have.”
3. U.S. Trade Deficits Contribute
Peter links the dollar’s weakening to recent large U.S. trade deficits. A cheap dollar will mean higher commodity prices and even higher trade deficits, which in turn will undermine the dollar further.
Peter explains:
There’s no way that inflation is going to come down in an environment where the dollar is that weak, because that’s going to really push up commodity prices. That’s going to push up our trade deficit… These big trade deficits are going to weigh heavily on the dollar.”
We’re entering a classic scenario where a depreciating currency contributes to domestic inflation. Trade deficits are not just a symptom of economic issues but also a causative factor in the declining value of the dollar.
As long as the U.S. continues to run these deficits, the pressure on the dollar will persist.
Meanwhile, investors are flocking to other safe haven assets, like the Swiss Franc.
In 2023, the Franc was up a whopping 10%:
That is a very negative sign for the dollar for 2024 and a positive sign for gold because people are buying the Swiss frank as a safe haven. Gold is an even safer haven than the Swiss franc, but the fact that the Swiss franc is gaining so much on the dollar is an indication that people are leery of the dollar.”
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Many USA states are turning to gold
(New York Sun)
New York Sun: Our $34 trillion debt is turning the states to gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-01-03 12:17Section: Daily Dispatches
From The New York Sun Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Just as we were set to mark our national debt crossing $34 trillion, the Mises Institute sends a note steering its fans to the Sound Money Index, ranking the states by the degree to which they provide an environment for honest money.
The index, produced by the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange, records that the classical monetary metals, gold and silver, discover the value of fiat currencies like the dollar, not the other way around.
Gold and silver are money,” the index notes, “not by government decree, but because they have proven to be over the test of time, by maintaining their value.”
That insight is underscored, as the 2024 index is released, by the fact that the fiat dollar is flirting with an all-time low versus gold. On the last trading day of 2023, the Wall Street Journal observes, the dollar fetched in futures markets but a 2,062nd of an ounce of gold — a fall for the year of 13 percent.
Over the long run the dollar’s collapse has been even more precipitous. …
Gold demand hits record high amid global turbulence, Royal Mint says
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-01-03 18:29Section: Daily Dispatches
By Melissa Lawford The Telegraph, London via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Investors flocked to gold in record numbers in 2023 as global economic turbulence triggered a flight to safety, according to the Royal Mint.
The number of people buying gold and precious metal bars and coins jumped by 7% year-on-year, surpassing the highs of the 2020 lockdown investing boom
The British coin maker said this was due to a jump in small-scale retail investors buying “safe haven” assets.
At the same time, The Royal Mint’s total payouts to customers selling back their bullion surged by nearly half after gold prices hit an all-time high last year. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1511
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1596
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.90 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 0.43 PTS OR 0.00%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 175.88 PTS OR .53%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.04 EURO RISES TO 1.0953 UP 28 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.619 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.22/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.0910***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.7590** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.082…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.181
3j Gold at $2046.40 silver at: 22.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 52 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.52//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144,22// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.619% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8502 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9313 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.955 UP 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.105 UP 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.349 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.78…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 8 BASIS PTS AT 3.7255
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities modestly firmer, Dollar softer and GBP bid post-final PMI revisions; US ADP & IJC due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 06:09 AM
European bourses and US Futures extend modest gains, though the Russell outperforms paring back the prior day’s hefty losses
Dollar is softer and the Pound gains post-final PMI revisions, EUR bid on PMIs with German inflation due; Yen continues its losing streak
Bonds weaken as attention turns to US data; hawkish reaction after Final PMI revisions
Crude benchmarks are firmer as Middle East tensions continue alongside USD downside, XAU also benefits
Looking ahead, US Services & Composite PMI (Final), German Nationwide CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims. Earnings from Walgreens Boots, Lamb Weston Holdings
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Eurostoxx50 (+0.3%), are modestly firmer with clear outperformance in the IBEX (+0.7%) benefitting from several broker upgrades; Grifols (+2.3%), Endesa (+2.2%).
European sectors have a positive tilt; Energy is propped up by higher Crude prices, whilst Retail lags, hampered by losses in JD Sports (-21.2%).
US Equity Futures are marginally firmer ES (+0.1%), though the Russell (+0.6%), outperforms seemingly attempting to pare back some of Wednesday’s hefty losses.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
DXY is softer amid a slight reversal of recent risk moves and as attention turns to US ADP/IJC later today; index at the low-end of a 102.14-52 range.
EUR attempts to claw back recent losses against the Dollar with upward PMI revisions providing support allowing the Single-Currency to climb above yesterday’s high of 1.0968.
The Yen continues its losing streak against the Dollar making a high just above 144.00; Large clips due to roll off at 143.80-85 and 144.00.
The Pound is the best performing G10 currency and back on a 1.27 handle, a breach driven post final-PMI revisions.
Morgan Stanley has turned neutral on USD after previously being bullish; pivots short EUR/USD trade recommendation to short EUR/JPY. “We turn neutral on the USD as our conviction about USD strength has waned meaningfully. Investors appear to be adopting an ‘early cycle’ mentality where peak Fed hawkishness is sufficient to ‘paper over’ other risks”. “JPY should continue to gain as long as US rates are falling, regardless of the risk outlook”.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0997 vs exp. 7.1504 (prev. 7.1002)
USTs modestly bear steepen and hold around a 112.07 trough, largely taking cues from EBGs; attention turns to US IJC, ADP and Final PMIs.
Bunds initially caught a bid on NRW CPI though gradually pared the move as more states released figures which by in-large chimed mainland expectations for an increase in inflation; currently residing around the 136.58 low.
Gilts were initially firmer though succumbed to selling pressure, in-fitting with peers; the benchmark extended losses to a 101.05 trough before lifting from lows following a strong auction.
Spain sells EUR 6.3bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.50% 2027, 3.50% 2029, 1.90% 2052 Bono and EUR 0.599bln vs. Exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 0.65% 2027 I/L.
France sells EUR 11.975bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.0bln 3.50% 2033, 1.25% 2038, 3.00% 2054 OAT.
Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session with WTI extending gains to an incremental fresh WTD high of USD 74.00; action occurring without fresh fundamental driver and seemingly taking impetus from the general European tone and USD downside.
Spot Gold has continued to edge higher throughout the APAC and European session as the Dollar continues to weaken; Base metals are modestly firmer having traded cautiously overnight.
Morgan Stanley says growth in world oil demand is set to slow as post-COVID recovery tailwinds abate. See 2024 oil demand growth of 1.2mln BPD (vs. 2.2mln BPD in 2023)
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – December 2023: One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations 4.0% vs. prev. 4.4%. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations 3.1% vs. 3.2%. Expected year-ahead wage growth increased marginally to 5.2% on a three-month moving average basis.
DATA RECAP
German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Dec) 3.5% (Prev. 3.0%); Core 3.4% (prev. 3.7%) – click here for reaction & analysis.
Overall, the German state CPIs conform around consensus for the mainland figure at 13:00GMT/08:00EST, Y/Y is seen at 3.7% (prev. 3.2%) and M/M at 0.1% (prev. -0.4%), initial dovish reaction on the NRW figure given a continued core downtick and pronounced energy base effects. Though, as mentioned, this faded in EGBs with a hawkish narrative taking over post-PMIs (price pressures re. services) and as subsequent state CPIs printed around mainland consensus – with heavy influence from energy base effects.
French CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Dec) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.9%); YY NSA (Dec) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.80% (Prev. 3.50%)
Spanish Services PMI (Dec) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51)
Italian HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 49.8 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.5); Composite PMI (Dec) 48.6 (Prev. 48.1)
French S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) 45.7 vs. Exp. 44.3 (Prev. 44.3); Composite PMI (Dec) 44.8 vs. Exp. 43.7 (Prev. 43.7)
German HCOB Services PMI (Dec) 49.3 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4); Composite Final PMI (Dec) 47.4 vs. Exp. 46.7 (Prev. 46.7)
EU HCOB Services Final PMI (Dec) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.1 (Prev. 48.1); Comp Final PMI (Dec) 47.6 vs. Exp. 47 (Prev. 47)
UK BOE Consumer Credit (Nov) 2.005B GB vs. Exp. 1.4B GB (Prev. 1.289B GB, Rev. 1.411B GB); UK Mortgage Lending (Nov) -0.039B GB (Prev. -0.05B GB, Rev. -0.083B GB)
UK Mortgage Approvals (Nov) 50.067k vs. Exp. 48.5k (Prev. 47.383k, Rev. 47.888k); UK M4 Money Supply (Nov) -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
Members of Biden’s national security team convened a White House meeting on Wednesday to review possible options against the Houthis, including strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, according to officials cited by NBC. “The meeting on Wednesday afternoon was aimed at fleshing out details of various options that are more robust than those the White House has previously considered and that could include responding alongside other nations, the officials said”. “White House has not approved any of the options for strikes on the Yemen-based rebels that have been prepared by the US military, current and former officials said.”
CRYPTO
Bitcoin meanders around the USD 43k level, consolidating after yesterday’s sell-off.
US SEC and stock exchange officials meet ahead of potential Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF approval; “The meetings are seen as a positive sign that the SEC is nearing approval of some or all of the dozen applications”, FBN sources said.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the risk aversion continued to seep from Wall Street despite the lack of a clear catalyst.
ASX 200 was the relative outperformer, with losses cushioned by the energy sector following the rise in crude prices
Nikkei 225 returned from its long break and caught up with the losses in the region seen yesterday, although the downside was limited amid the recent weakening in the JPY.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both lower but the former saw shallower losses due to gains in oil majors, whilst the latter failed to benefit from the improvement in Chinese Caixin Services PMI, although the release suggested domestic and foreign demand remain insufficient.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fitch downgraded four Chinese National asset management companies by one notch; three on rating watch Negative – “reflecting reduced government support expectations.”
PBoC injected CNY 15bln through 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 1.80% for a net drain of CNY 585bln.
Japanese PM Kishida said he plans to carry out cabinet approval on January 9th to use reserve funds to cover damages caused by the earthquake, according to Reuters.
BoJ Governor Ueda said he hopes for Japan’s economy to achieve balanced rises in wages and inflation; he added if wages and inflation rise in a balanced manner, it can encourage firms to invest in equipment, research, and development, according to Reuters.
South Korean Finance Ministry sees 2024 growth at 2.2% (vs prev. 2.4%) and 2024 inflation at 2.6% (vs prev. 2.3%), according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Dec) 52.9 (Prev. 51.5); Composite 52.6 (Prev. 51.6) – “It is also crucial to note that domestic and external demand is still insufficient”, according to Caixin
Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Final (Dec) 47.1 (Prev. 47.6); Composite PMI Final (Dec) 46.9 (Prev. 47.4)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Final SA (Dec) 47.9 (Prev. 47.7)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.90 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 0.43 PTS OR 0.00% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 175.88 PTS OR .53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.34% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1511 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1596 /Oil UP TO 73.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.88/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
Israel-Hamas war: IDF to complete half of Khan Yunis op. by next month
Operational control in southern Gaza is still months away.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBJANUARY 4, 2024 13:59Updated: JANUARY 4, 2024 15:10
Israeli soldiers from the 646 Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade operating in Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza, during an Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, January 2, 2023.(photo credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)
The IDF hopes to have taken apart two of Khan Yunis’s four battalions, mainly in the northern part of the city, by sometime around the start of February.
Although the IDF is already starting to fight more in the southern and western sectors of Khan Yunis, taking apart those battalions is expected to take months longer.
It only took the IDF slightly more than two weeks to take operational control over large portions of northern Gaza, including most of Gaza City.
Then, it took about another month, with a break in the middle during the November 24-30 temporary ceasefire, for the IDF to have operational control over the remaining parts of northern Gaza, including Jabalia, Zeitoun, and Shejaia.
The IDF said that the current approach of advancing in Khan Yunis gradually but in a comprehensive way in each area where the IDF moves on to, including rooting out and destroying all of the massive tunnels and shafts, is time-consuming but the best available strategy.Israeli soldiers from the 646 Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade operating in Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza, during an Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, January 2, 2023. (credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)
Also, the IDF said that its forces are not as familiar with some areas deeper within Khan Yunis, where it has not operated for even much longer than some areas in northern Gaza, where it spent more time in past Gaza conflicts. This creates a longer learning curve in terms of maneuvering and threat perception.
end
The IDF said it knows where the Khan Yunis center of gravity is located
To date, much of the fighting revolves around networks of tunnel shafts and the general area near those shafts.
Sometimes, the IDF may only have seconds to hit Hamas terrorists when they emerge from the shafts either to try to ambush Israeli forces or after the IDF has created a dangerous situation for them within the tunnels, which flushes them out.
The IDF has also killed two Khan Yunis battalion commanders in the northern and eastern areas during attacks underground and arrested five Nukbeh terrorists for interrogation for intelligence purposes in another underground attack.
IDF Brigade 4 Commander Col. Miki Sharbit said, “We struck the northeastern battalion of Khan Yunis. We are conducting operations both above and below ground, destroying the enemy – this is what we prepared for, and this is what we trained for.”
“The brigade is responsible for the area of Tantzar and the Salah a-Din junction,” which is a crucial travel point between northern and southern Gaza, said Sharbit, adding, “We are trying to destroy enemy forces who are trying to cross through from many different directions, and by maintaining control in the area, enabling Division 98 freedom of action to penetrate more deeply.”
Sharbit noted that essentially every civilian area, from houses to schools to mosques, was being systematically exploited by Hamas to attack IDF forces.
Next, he said, “Lots of the intelligence which leads up forward [to the next attack point] is battle intelligence which we obtain during fighting in the field. During one operation of our division, we understood from a fight in a certain area that this area had many terror tunnel shafts.”
Using this information and the IDF’s full air and land long-range attack capabilities, he said that they were able to kill around 20 terrorists and their company commander. In addition, we captured several terrorists who provided valuable intelligence upon being interrogated.”
Likewise, IDF Brigade 55 Commander Col. Oded Zimen said that his forces had killed many terrorists, significant amounts of terror infrastructure both above and below ground, and also captured terrorists who gave valuable forward-looking intelligence for fighting Hamas.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF thwarts Hamas anti-tank terror cells throughout Gaza
Battles also took place against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon the same day.
IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, January 4, 2023.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF thwarted anti-tank Hamas terror cells throughout the Gaza Strip on Thursday.
Most of the battles were in the city of Khan Yunis, where three Hamas terrorists attacked IDF soldiers by attempting to plant an explosive device next to them. In response, the three were killed by an IAF aircraft under the direction of IDF personnel. An additional two terrorists were eliminated by Israeli forces after they were found in a nearby building.
Other activity in the Palestinian city that day saw an IAF aircraft striking a launch post used by Hamas to fire an anti-tank missile at IDF troops while also striking the terror cell operating inside the launch post.
A weapons storage facility also owned by Hamas was also struck by an Israeli fighter jet.
Another Hamas military structure was also struck by an IAF fighter jet. This structure was being used by an anti-tank terrorist operative from Hamas’ Deir al Balah Battalion. Two other structures were additionally targeted, which saw Hamas terrorists flee the scene, and numerous weapons were uncovered by Israeli forces. A terrorist who arrived at the location to retrieve them was eliminated by an Israeli aircraft.
IDF strikes in the Gaza Strip on January 4, 2024 (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
North of Khan Yunis, in the Bureij refugee camp, IDF troops located long-range rocket launchers.
Naval troops of the IDF are operating along the Gazan coastline in order to assist Israeli soldiers operating on the ground.
Fighting Hezbollah on the same day
An IDF squad attacked terror infrastructures and an anti-tank squad belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization.
Video documentation of the attack can be seen below:
IDF attacks Hezbollah infrastructure and an anti-tank squad (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
Earlier, on Wednesday night, the IDF fired mortars to remove a threat in the village of Rav-a-Taltin in southern Lebanon. A number of launches from Lebanese territory to Israeli territory were also detected the following morning.
END
Troops in south Gaza have killed many gunmen, significantly damaged Hamas control in Khan Younis – IDF
IDF troops seen operating inside the Gaza Strip in this handout photo released for publication on January 4, 2023. (IDF)
The IDF says reservists of the Kiryati Armored Brigade and 55th Paratroopers Brigade operating in southern Gaza have killed many Hamas fighters of the terror group’s northern and eastern Khan Younis battalions, and significantly damaged their command and control, preventing operatives from carrying out large-scale attacks on troops.
The IDF releases footage of the two reserve brigades operating in the Khan Younis area, killing Hamas gunmen in tunnels and detaining operatives of the terror group’s elite Nukhba force.
The commander of the Kiryati Brigade, Col. Mickey Sharvit, says that in their area of operations “there is no innocent infrastructure.”
“We encounter terror in almost every home, in hospitals and schools. Our forces even eliminated terrorists who emerged from an underground [tunnel] in a school,” he says.
The IDF says the reservist troops located and destroyed a Hamas tunnel shaft leading to an underground passage of several hundred meters in the Khan Younis area.
Sharvit says some 20 Hamas operatives, including a company commander, were killed by the IDF inside the tunnel.
Five members of the terror group’s elite Nukhba force escaped the tunnel and surrendered to troops, according to the IDF.
The IDF says the gunmen who surrendered told field interrogators that strikes on underground Hamas hideouts in the area killed many operatives, including two company commanders in Hamas’s northern and eastern Khan Younis battalions.
The commander of the 55th Brigade, Col. Oded Ziman, meanwhile, hails the “extraordinary” cooperation with the Israeli Air Force.
“As a brigade commander I never dreamed of such good and fast cooperation,” Ziman says, recalling an incident this morning in which an attack helicopter provided air support within two minutes of radioing in the request.
Smoke rises above buildings in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the West Bank, during an ongoing IDF raid on January 4, 2024. (Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
The IDF says it is continuing a counter-terror operation in the West Bank’s Nur Shams refugee camp that began more than 30 hours ago.
So far, it says troops have questioned hundreds of suspects in the camp near Tulkarem, although only some of them have been arrested.
The IDF says troops also seized several weapons during the raid.
In all, across the West Bank, the IDF says it arrested 29 wanted Palestinians in overnight raids.
Since October 7, troops have arrested more than 2,600 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas, according to the IDF.
The US does not think Hezbollah is seeking to fully open up a new front against Israel after the IDF allegedly assassinated Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut yesterday, a senior Biden administration official says.
“I think from everything that we can tell, there is no clear desire from Hezbollah to go to war with Israel, and vice versa,” the senior administration official tells reporters on condition of anonymity.
The senior Biden official doesn’t go as far as to justify the alleged assassination but notes that the US had put a $5 million reward for information on Arouri, adding that senior members of Hamas “must be held accountable.”
The official also echoes an assertion made yesterday by one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesmen who ostensibly sought to convince Hezbollah not to respond by declaring that the assassination specifically targeted Hamas figures and was not an attack on the Iranian proxy or on Lebanon.
Asked about today’s deadly explosions in Iran near the grave of former Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, the senior administration official says the attack was similar to ones carried out by the Islamic State in the past.
“That’s the going assumption at the moment.”
Explaining the impetus behind a US-led joint statement earlier today against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, the senior US official says that US President Joe Biden wanted to send “a very clear warning to the Houthis that they will bear the full consequences and responsibility for any further attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea.”
“I would not anticipate another warning because this speaks very much for itself,” the official says.
END
LEBANON/ISRAEL//HEZBOLLAH/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Hezbollah Losses Grow To 9 In One Day After Israel Mounts Another Major Airstrike
WEDNESDAY, JAN 03, 2024 – 05:19 PM
Update(1719ET): Within hours after the Nasrallah speech, Israel has conducted another major airstrike on Lebanon, this time against a residential building which housed Hezbollah members.
“Two security sources told the Reuters news agency that four Hezbollah members were killed in the attack on what had been described as a residential building,” Al Jazeera reports. Importantly, “It brings the number of Hezbollah members killed on Wednesday to nine” – which suggests we are witnessing a significant escalation.
A Pentagon statement has also implicated Israel in the earlier targeted drone strike which killed Hamas deputy head Saleh al-Arouri. While Israel had not officially owned up to it, a CENTCOM statement said to reporters, “The strike was an Israeli strike. Please refer all questions to IDF.”
* * *
Update(1304ET): As is typical of his speeches, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave no details on the paramilitary group’s next steps, or whether an escalation in the conflict is on the horizon, but he asserted that the killing al-Arouri will not go without punishment, issuing all the usual fresh threats and warnings. He did warn of a ‘no limit’ war.
“If the enemy thinks about waging war against Lebanon, then our fighting will be with no ceiling, with no limits, with no rules. And they know what I mean,” Nasrallah said. “We are not afraid of war. We don’t fear it. We are not hesitant. If we were, we would have stopped at the front.”
He called Israel’s targeting south Beirut the day before, which resulted in the assassination of al-Arouri and some six others, a “dangerous” act. According to an outline of his main points, via Al Jazeera:
Israel has been dealt a strategic defeat in the region since the October 7 attack.
Assassinating al-Arouri is a “dangerous” act that will not pass without punishment.
The Houthis’ Red Sea attacks are “qualitative” and “effective”.
The US administration is fuelling the war in Gaza and preventing a ceasefire.
Israel is failing to declare casualties “in the thousands” on the Lebanese front.
Hezbollah is not afraid of an all-out war with Israel and is willing to fight with “no limits”.
Meanwhile Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been posting English messages to X throughout the day…
Earlier in the day Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahianstruck a similar theme, denouncing the “cowardly terrorist operation.”
“The evil terror machine of this regime in other countries is a real threat to peace and security and a serious alarm for the security of the countries in the region,” he said a Wednesday social media post. State media also underscored, “The Iranian diplomat further noted that Israel’s terrorist operations prove that the occupying regime has failed to reach its objectives in the war in Gaza despite US support.”
* * *
end
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH/THURSDAY MORNING
Big news: Hezbollah retreats from Israeli border by two to three kilometers
(Jerusalem Post)
Hezbollah retreats from Israel border by 2-3 kilometers
The Hezbollah terrorist organization has withdrawn its forces from the border to Israel by 2-3 kilometers, according to a Maariv report on Thursday citing a report from The Economist.
According to the report, this is indeed a “tactical withdrawal,” but it is a signal to Israel and to the US that the terrorist organization wants to avoid an all-out war, the report claims.
end
Four Hezbollah terrorists killed in IDF strike in Lebanon
Four Hezbollah terrorists were killed on Thursday morning in an IDF strike in southern Lebanon, Walla reported, citing claims made by the terror organization.
Overall, the number of dead Hezbollah terrorists has risen to 147 since the beginning of Operation Swords of Iron
end
WEDNESDAY, JAN 03, 2024 – 02:05 PM
Update(1405ET): The death toll in Kerman city has risen to at least 103 killed, and over 141 injured, with new details being revealed in state-backed IRNA news as follows: “The first blast took place 700 meters away from Martyr General Qassem Soleimani’s tomb and the second explosion happened one kilometer away from it.” Other sources are saying there were well over 170 injuries in the aftermath. “The explosions dispersed mourners from Kerman’s cemetery and ambulances rushed to deliver the injured to hospitals in the city,” the report continues. This was among the single deadliest attacks in all of Iranian history.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi didn’t single out any country of its intelligence services for being behind the attack, but said, “the perpetrators and criminals who were involved in this terrorist crime will soon be identified and punished for their actions.”
However, some top Iranian officials did quickly point the finger at Israel and the US. This prompted a quick rejection of the allegation by the Biden administration, which also sought to distance Israel from the mass casualty event too:
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the U.S. had no reason to believe that Israel was involved in the explosion, and added, “the United States was not involved in any way, and any suggestion to the contrary is ridiculous.”
Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei also did not specify any country potentially behind the major attack on the memorial event. “The enemies should know that, with God’s permission, perpetrators of this tragedy will be met with a strong response,” he posted to X.
According to an afternoon press briefing by US national security council spokesman John Kirby (via RTRS):
White House says the US does not have detail on the Iran bombing; US has no indication Israel was involved in the Iran blast
White House says US will continue to maintain a significant force presence in the middle east; US will not shrink from defending US interests and free flow of international commerce
Actions in the Red Sea directly threaten freedom of navigation.
Ambulances line up in front of a building used by the the Iraqi militia group Hezbollah al-Nujaba after it was hit by an airstrike in Baghdad, Iraq, January 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)
The US military has carried out a strike in Baghdad against an Iraqi paramilitary leader it blames for attacks against US forces in the country, killing him and another person, a US official tells Reuters.
The US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, says the strike hit a vehicle in Baghdad. It targeted a leader of Harakat al Nujaba, the official says, without naming the person.
END
US strike kills militia leader blamed for Iraq attacks
The US military carried out a retaliatory strike in Baghdad on Thursday that killed a militia leader it blames for recent attacks on US personnel.
By REUTERSJANUARY 4, 2024 16:49
US Marine Corps (USMC) Marines assigned to C/Company, 1ST Battalion, 5th Marines, 1ST Marine Division engage the enemy during a firefight with Iraqi Forces near Baghdad, Iraq, during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM(photo credit: NARA)
Iraqi police sources and witnesses said a drone fired at least two rockets in eastern Baghdad at a facility used by the Iraqi militia group al-Nujaba’a.
Police and militia sources said the rockets hit a vehicle inside the Nujaba’a headquarters and killed four people, including a local group commander and one of his aides. Health sources confirmed the death toll.
US retaliates Iraqi attacks
The US military has come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, usually with a mix of rockets and one-way attack drones.
The United States has 2,500 troops deployed in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria in a bid to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State militants.
Iranian-backed militias stand on a tank close to the Syria-Iraq border (credit: ALAA AL-MARJANI/REUTERS)
“The Iraqi armed forces hold the international coalition forces responsible for this unjustified attack on an Iraqi security entity,” the prime minister’s military spokesman said, referring to Thursday’s strike.
The statement described the militia group as an Iraqi force operating with the authorization of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.
The US official said the strike hit the vehicle with the intention of killing the militia leader, and that was accomplished.
Video footage published by pro-militia websites showed a destroyed vehicle in flames. Reuters could not independently verify the authenticity of the footage.
Iran-aligned groups in Iraq and Syria oppose Israel’s campaign in Gaza and hold the United States partly responsible.
Iraqi militia threatens to react
Prime Minister Al-Sudani has limited control over some Iran-backed factions, whose support he needed to win power a year ago and who now form a powerful bloc in his governing coalition.
Iraqi security sources said they had no further detail on who might have carried out the strike pending a government investigation.
Iraqi militia commanders accused the United States of carrying out the attack and threatened to retaliate.
“We will retaliate and make the Americans regret carrying out this aggression,” Abu Aqeel al-Moussawi, a local Iraqi militia commander, said.
Last month, the United States carried out retaliatory air strikes in Iraq after a drone attack by Iran-aligned militants that left one US service member in critical condition and wounded two others.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
My goodness: how stupid can the uSA and Germany be in supplying UKRAINE with leopard 2’s
(Remix)
Ukraine’s Leopard 2 Tanks Are Nearly All Destroyed Or Broken
Of the 18 German-made Leopard 2AG main battle tanks sent to Ukraine, only a few are still in operation, with the rest either destroyed or broken, according to German Green MP Sebastian Schäfer, who serves as the defense expert for the party.
“The situation in Ukraine is very difficult at the moment. We need to do more at all levels; the government and industry are called upon to do more,” he wrote on the X social network.
He also underlined his position in letters to Rheinmetall and the French armaments company Nexter.
Footage of the destroyed Leopard tanks littering the battlefields in Ukraine has been widely broadcast by pro-Russian accounts on social media.
However, other countries have also sent their Leopard 2s into action, and it was unclear how many of the tanks provided directly by Germany had even seen action.
So far, the weapon has not had the effect on the battlefield that the Ukrainians were hoping for.
Meanwhile, not only has the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, but Russia is even making gains along the front.
Schäfer had visited a repair workshop in Lithuania together with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) before Christmas to get an idea of the situation, following which the Green Party member stated: “Unfortunately, it is clear that only a very small number of the battle tanks supplied can still be used by Ukraine.”
He said they were no longer combat-ready due to battle damage, wear and tear, and shoddy repair attempts by the Ukrainians.
“There is also obviously a problem in that the Ukrainian army sometimes attempts to repair the tanks, which then leads to further damage,” Schäfer said, adding that there is a shortage of the required spare parts from Germany.
He suggested that the Ukrainians implement better training for the mechanics on site or provide better instructions. The costly transportation of damaged tanks is also sometimes not the best solution.
Schäfer insisted that more aid and weapons should flow to Ukraine to help it win the war effort.
as promised it was not Israel behind the Iranian assassination. Israel would never sponsor or do a suicide bombing
(Jerusalem Post)
Islamic State claims responsibility for blasts near Soleimani’s grave in Iran
Suicide bomber caused the first explosion at a ceremony in Iran to commemorate Soleimani, Iran claimed on Thursday.
By REUTERSJANUARY 4, 2024 18:04Updated: JANUARY 4, 2024 19:25
People gather near a body lying on the ground at the scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the death of late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, in Kerman, Iran, January 3, 2024(photo credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Islamic State claimed responsibility on Thursday for two explosions that killed nearly 100 people and wounded scores at a ceremony in Iran to commemorate commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone in 2020.
The group posted a statement on its affiliate Telegram channels.
Suicide bomber cause of first explosion near Soleimani’s grave, Iran claims
An informed source told Iranian state media that the first explosion in Iran yesterday was caused by a suicide bomber.
This claim comes after a review of evidence, including CCTV footage.
People gather near a body lying on the ground at the scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the death of late Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, in Kerman, Iran, January 3, 2024 (credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Iranian state television reported a first and then a second explosion during an anniversary event at the cemetery where Soleimani is buried in the southeastern city of Kerman.
Iranian Health Minister Bahram Eynollahi told state TV the death toll was at 95, down from 103, and said 211 others were injured, making it the deadliest attack in the history of the Islamic Republic, which has faced similar incidents in the past from various groups, including Islamic State.
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
ROBERT H:
Florida State Surgeon General Calls for Halt in the Use of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines
No wonder people are not taking new shots. ABOUT TIME:
This will cause huge inflation throughout the globe
(zerohedge)
Spot Container Rates Surge By 173% Due To Red Sea Disruptions
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Drone and missile attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants on commercial vessels in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes have resulted in firms sending ships around the Cape of Good Hope, entirely avoiding the Red Sea region. Reroutings have added a week or more to sailings, thus straining cargo capacity, which, in return, has sent containerized shipping rates soaring.
Bloomberg cites new data from Freightos, a cargo booking and payment platform, that shows the spot rate for a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe has jumped 173% to $4,000 since mid-December.
The price for a 40-foot container from Asia to the Mediterranean has increased to $5,175, as reported by Freightos. Additionally, they noted that major shippers have announced even higher prices, surpassing the $6,000 mark for this route in the next two weeks. Shipping rates from Asia to the East Coast of North America also soared 55% to $3,900.
The Red Sea connects to Egypt’s Suez Canal and is the fastest way to transport consumer goods, petroleum products, and food from Asia and the Middle East to Europe and North America. About 10% to 12% of global trade flows through the critical waterway.
On Wednesday, no container ships with destinations to North America and Europe were transiting the Red Sea. These vessels were rerouted to Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope to avoid the attacks – adding anywhere from 7 to 20 days to their voyages. This indicates that the Pentagon’s Operation Prosperity Guardian has failed to protect commercial vessels in the region.
Spot container rates are moving higher because diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add extra time to sailings, reducing capacity.
New data from the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch platform, produced with Oxford University, shows that for the ten days through Monday, sails through the vital Suez Canal trade route plunged 28% compared with a year earlier. This means about 3.1% of global trade has been rerouted from the Red Sea.
Even though container prices are far off Covid highs, prices are more than double from early 2019 levels and come at a time when central banks have unleashed more than a year of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
Meanwhile, Red Sea disruptions are spreading across the shipping industry, leading to a surge in oil tanker shipping costs.
Shipbroker Braemar said daily shipping costs for a tanker from the Mediterranean to Japan through the Suez jumped from $8,000 a day in early December to $26,000 earlier this week.
“Any route involving the Red Sea is red hot,” the Braemar analysts said.
In a separate note, Goldman’s Daan Struyven shows oil flows via tankers through the Bab-El-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea have plunged.
Struyven said, “We estimated a potential $3-4/bbl boost to crude prices from a hypothetical prolonged and full redirection of all oil flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea…”
The biggest fear for energy prices, shipping costs, and supply chains is if a regional conflict erupts across the Middle East.
END
Here Are All Global Shipping’s Chokepoints
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 02:45 AM
With more and more shipping companies extending full or partial closures of Red Sea shipping routes due to attacks by Yemeni rebels, global trade could be seriously affected.
The passage is also an important chokepoint for oil shipments – not as significant as the Straight of Hormuz or the Straight of Malacca – but still important.
The Red Sea is also an important transit point for global food and fertilizer shipments, a type of commodity trade already thrown into disarray by the war in Ukraine as well as subsequent blockades of Black Sea shipping routes.
According to Chatham House, Bab-el-Mandeb saw the transit of almost 20 percent of global rice and almost 15 percent of global wheat exports previous to the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis. It is also important for fertilizer shipments.
The biggest chokepoints of global trade (by weight) are centered around China due to the country’s export prowess.
there is a very real possibility that the islamic terrorists that Biden INC. let into America at the Southern border, will KILL Americans soon in terror attacks (see Tashfeen, Omar, Hasan et al.)
All of the policies Trump put in place, you could like Trump or not, lead to the lowest illegals in near 50 years. Biden and his administration have removed these and now threatens the safety and security of America.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“Heavy Symbolism”: Hamas-Israel Conflict Risks Engulfing More Of The Region
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 11:20 AM
By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Heavy Symbolism
European stocks fell further on Wednesday, taking a cue from the negative mood on Wall Street. The Stoxx 600 dropped almost 0.9%, even as the incoming flow of macro-economic data should actually have been supportive of risk appetite. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% down too, continuing its losing streak. This morning, however, the mood improves slightly, with European futures gaining about 0.3%. Yields are also retreating this morning, after the 10-year UST briefly surpassed 4% yesterday.
Geopolitics was, again, quite nasty. Iran said that the two bomb attacks in Kerman, which had a large number of casualties, were aimed at punishing its stance against Israel. The attacks came hours after the deputy leader of Hamas was killed in an apparent Israeli drone strike in Lebanon.
Responsibility hasn’t been claimed yet, and it all still feels tail-risky in terms of direct US-Iran confrontation, but the symbolism of two explosions near the tomb of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani is quite heavy. Note too that the White House is reportedly reviewing options for a more robust military response to the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, including strikes against Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen.
It all signals that the conflict between Hamas and Israel risk engulfing more of the region.
As expected, the minutes of the FOMC meeting on December 12-13 were not as dovish as Powell’s post meeting press conference. Instead, these contained a few hawkish reminders. The FOMC participants generally stressed the importance of maintaining a careful and data-dependent approach, reaffirming that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down towards the 2%-target. That might take longer than anticipated. Meanwhile, the risk of fresh inflation flare-ups keeps the door open to new rate hikes. We continue to pencil in the first rate cut in June. Once started, we expect the Fed to continue with one cut of 25 bps per quarter. Please find Philip Marey’s write-up here.
As said, the macro-economic data should actually have been supportive of risk appetite. Unfilled job vacancies in America fell to 8.79m in November, the lowest since early-2021 and the fourth consecutive monthly drop. Over the previous four months, 707,000 openings disappeared, a sign of weakening demand for workers. The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings, known as the V/U-ratio, stabilised at a still-high 1.4, down from nearly 2 a year earlier.
Crucially, the quits rate, which tracks voluntary leavers as a share of employment, edged down to 2.2%. This is the lowest level since September 2020. Workers are no longer quitting their jobs in droves to seek better pay elsewhere. This suggests that wage growth will continue to moderate in the coming quarters, as employers face less pressure to attract and retain staff. The silver lining of it all is that the decline in openings and quits coincides with layoffs hanging around at a very low 1.0%. This bodes well for a soft landing with a relatively benign disinflation.
While the labor market is cooling down, so too is the manufacturing sector. The ISM index came in at 47.4 in December, indicating contraction for the 14th consecutive month, but this was still slightly above expectations. A crucial component of the index, the prices paid measure, came in at 45.2 and stayed below 50 for the eighth month in a row. That signals persistent disinflation in goods prices. Furthermore, although none of the six biggest manufacturing industries registered production growth in December, the survey comments also had some silver linings, with several industries projecting a pick-up in demand and solid business conditions.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
ARGENTINA/
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0953 UP .0028
USA/ YEN 144.22 UP 1.23 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2697 UP .0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3332 DOWN .0017 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.90 PTS OR 0.43%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 0.43 PTS OR 0.00%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.34% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 0.43 PTS OR 0.00%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.90 PTS OR 0.43%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.34%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 175.88 PTS OR .53%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2046.15
silver:$22.98
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 102,04 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1579
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1728)
TURKISH LIRA: 29.77 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.619…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.983% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.133 UP 8 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.374 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 42.79 PTS OR .53%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 78.90 PTS OR 0.48%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 38,77 PTS OR 0.52%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 129.00 PTS OR 1.28%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 303.12 PTS OR 1.01%
WTI Oil price 72.31 12: EST
Brent Oil: 77.8012:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.27; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 73//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1140 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.7475 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0943 UP 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2681 UP .0007 or 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.770% UP 14 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.614%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.57 UP 1.57 //YEN DOWN 157 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3354 UP 0.0006 CDN dollar DOWN 6 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 72.34
Brent OIL: 77.61
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 3.993%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.140%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 7 PTS AT 4.385%
USA dollar index: 102.17 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.76 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.33 UP 0 AND 67/100 roubles
GOLD 2044,50 3:30 PM
SILVER: 23.02 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 10.48 PTS OR 0.03%
NASDAQ DOWN 86.48 PTS OR 0.53%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.88 UP .16 PTS 1.11%
GLD: $189.32 UP 0.19 OR 0.10%
SLV/ $21.08 UP .02 OR 0.095%%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
‘Goldilocks’ Gored By Growth Gains; Bitcoin Bounces As Rate-Cut Hopes Hammered
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Strong jobs data (ADP jobs added more than expected, slowing wage growth, and initial jobless claims at 2023 lows) and strong Services economy survey data (PMI at 5 month highs) prompted higher Treasury yields today, and sent rate-hike expectations tumbling for March…
Source: Bloomberg
In the words of one veteran trader (who happens to be long and wrong), “the growth’s just too damn hot… The Fed can’t stand by as the market runs wild on rate-cut hopes.” (edited for NSFW words)
And rate-cut expectations for 2024 have tumbled overall…
Source: Bloomberg
And yields surged back to (or above) yesterday’s highs (curve basically all up around 6-7bps today). It’s been an ugly week for bonds to start 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
As the 10Y Yield surged back up to 4.00% (and stalled again)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yields has broken back above its recent downtrend line…
Source: Bloomberg
And the longest-duration stocks suffered (MAG7 has erased all of December’s gains)…
Source: Bloomberg
And as goes MAG7, so goes the market (for now) as the 492 ain’t helping. Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser while The Dow managed very small gains. A late-day slump ($4BN MoC to sell), wiped off any lipstick left on any pigs…
Nasdaq is down 5 days in a row – the longest losing streak since Dec 2022.
Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Tech (Nasdaq) are down around 3.5% to start the year…
The S&P is down almost 2% – the worst start to a year since 2008
The 200bps underperformance of Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 in the last 5 days is among the largest in the last two years…
And it’s not just an AI thing as AI-at-risk names are down just as much in 2024 so far…
Source: Bloomberg
Anti-Obesity drug names are outperforming though in 2024 so far…
Source: Bloomberg
Value stocks have outperformed growth for the last few weeks, breaking the downtrend…
Source: Bloomberg
After yesterday’s pukefest to $41k (on nothing), Bitcoin ripped back up to $44k today as the spot ETF approval seems imminent-erer…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the 5th straight day (its longest win streak since September), rallying back during the European session after Asian weakness. This is the best start to a year for the dollar since 2005.
Source: Bloomberg
Oddly – again – with ‘growth’ fears sparking higher yields, lower rate-cut hopes, oil prices… tumbled. The driver was major inventory builds in gasoline and distillates (because the middle east is still a shit-show). WTI came within a tick of $74 intraday overnight before dropping back to almost a $70 handle before bouncing back…
Spot Gold managed very modest gains on the day, holding above $2040…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, financial conditions are starting to tighten (a little for now, but that’s a start)…
“Many participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal.”
So, be careful what you wish for – the porridge is too hot for Goldilocks here and if tomorrow’s payrolls print is ‘hot’, hopes and dreams of ‘just right’ rate-cuts in 2024 will be dashed on the hungry chins of ravenous bears.
END
MORNING TRADING//
end
AFTERNOON TRADING
TUCKER CARLSON
“The System Is Not Going To Let Trump Win” – Dems’ Real Puppet Isn’t Gavin, It’s Nikki: Tucker And Vivek
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 09:10 PM
With establishment favorite Nikki Haley overtaking long-time runner-up Ron DeSantis in the latest polls, the mainstream media is going wild about the chances of the woman-warmonger toppling Trump somehow.
For context…
However, Trump’s massive lead is not stopping the deep state from doing everything it can to promote Haley, and that prompted Vivek Ramaswamy and Tucker Carlson to expose some reality behind her sudden success.
Tucker starts by pointing out the dilemma Democratic megadonors face with Joe Biden’s declining popularity and Kamala Harris’s unpopularity, suggesting that these donors might be attempting to subvert the Republican Party by backing a candidate like Nikki Haley.
“Strip away all the outward characteristics, and Nikki Haley is identical in her priorities to Joe Biden and the people who back Joe Biden,” Carlson said.
Haley, whose campaign raised $24 million between October and December, has received recent major endorsements from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and Americans for Prosperity Action, which is backed by billionaire Charles Koch.
Mr. Carlson then shared a video of Ms. Haley during a town hall in Davenport, Iowa, in October.
During the campaign event, the former South Carolina governor claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind the Hamas incursion of Israel on Oct. 7 and that Russian intelligence had helped aid the attack, which had simultaneously taken attention off the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Tech entrepreneur Ramaswamy then weighed in on Tucker’s claims, concurring with the former Fox host that Ms. Haley is a “puppet” for the Democratic Party, and branding her a “Trojan horse.”
“I think the true puppet masters, the thing about them, is they’re fundamentally nonpartisan in nature,” the businessman said.
“There are a few things they care about: Keeping the foreign war machine humming is high on the list. Keeping the administrative state’s control of the United States is also high on the list. They found a much more convenient puppet within the Republican Party itself.”
“They have their core objectives, and Nikki makes for a far better Trojan horse to actually accomplish that objective than anybody else.”
Mr. Ramaswamy concluded that it is now “crystal clear” that the “bipartisan system” wants to narrow the GOP presidential race down to just two candidates: former President Trump and Ms. Haley.
“It’s not Biden, and it’s not even Gavin Newsom. It’s Nikki Haley within the Republican Party itself,” he continued.
“And I think that that makes for a very convenient front man because then they actually have absolved themselves from any allegations of partisanship or Democratic partisanship against [former President] Donald Trump.”
Finally, Vivek notes:
“The system is not going to let Trump win, they have their chosen alternative, ready to trot out.”
Manufacturing Jobs Decline In Latest ADP Report, Services Soar
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 08:27 AM
After four straight months of disappointments, ADP Employment Report printed +164k jobs in December, better than the +125k expected, up from a revised +101k gain in November.
Source: Bloomberg
That is the largest monthly job gain since August with Services jobs dominating once again (+155k Services vs +9k Goods-producing).
Wage growth continued to slow:
Job-changers wage growth dropped to 8.0% from 8.3%, lowest since May 2021
Job-stayers wage growth dropped to 5.4% from 5.6%, lowest since August 2021
“We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.”
The MidWest and South saw job declines of 21k and 7k respectively while The West and Northeast saw job gains soar (+109k and +94k respectively)
Finally, we note that ADP has under-estimated the print for BLS for the last three months…
So, if BLS beats this, will the market still ‘believe’ in a soft landing and six rate-cuts?
end
From this point on, pay no attention to soft data reports from the USA. They are total garbage. Watch only hard data
(zerohedge)
‘Soft’ Services Survey Soars To 5-Month-Highs As ‘Hard’ Data Hits 2023 Lows
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 09:56 AM
Following US Manufacturing PMI’s disappointing decline in December, US Services PMI was expected to rise in December and it did, with the final print of 51.4 (up from the flash 51.3 and 50.8 in November).
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘soft’ services sector survey is the strongest since July 2023 – as ‘hard’ data plumbs 2023 lows.
“Some New Year cheer is provided by the PMI signalling an acceleration of growth in the vast services economy, which reported its largest rise in output for five months in December. The improvement overshadows a downturn recorded in manufacturing to indicate that the overall pace of US economic growth likely accelerated slightly at the end of the year.
“Some support to financial services in particular is coming from the recent loosening of financial conditions amid growing hopes of interest rate cuts in 2024. Growth nevertheless remains subdued by standards seen over the spring and summer, with the struggling manufacturing sector dampening demand for business-to-business services and consumers remaining far less inclined to spend on luxuries such as travel and recreation than earlier in the year.
“The more challenging demand environment has dampened firms’ pricing power, squeezing service sector selling price inflation to the lowest for over three years on average during the fourth quarter. With sticky service sector inflation being a key area of concern among Fed policymakers, the slower rate of price increase in December is welcome news.“
However, at the composite level, on the price front, total input costs rose at a sharper rate in December as operating expenses at manufacturers and service providers increased at faster paces.
So – take your pick – cut rates because manufacturing recession or cut rates to keep the Services sector soaring? Because it’s an election year and we can’t be hiking right?
end
END
Initial jobless claims end at year lows. Do not put much faith in this data point as well
(zerohedge)
Initial Jobless Claims End 2023 At Year Lows
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 08:38 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 202k last week (week-ending Dec 30th) from +220k the prior week. That is basically 2023 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
We wait for next week when the biggest non-seasonally-adjusted jump in claims is expected.
California and Texas saw the largest drop in initial claims while Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw the biggest increase…
Additionally, continuing jobless claims declined from 1.886mm to 1.855mm in the week-ending Dec 23rd…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March.
However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)…
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
UNBELIEVABLE
San Diego state U President did nothing wrong and yet there are being investigated for Islamophobia.
give me a break…
(Jerusalem Post)
San Diego State U being investigated for Islamophobia after Oct.7 support email to students
The campus SJP chapter said in a statement that the school “has failed to acknowledge the emotions and well-being of its Palestinian and Muslim students.”
By ANDREW LAPIN/JTAJANUARY 4, 2024 01:57
The campus of San Diego State University, San Diego, California, June 15, 2013.(photo credit: Stuart Seeger via Creative Commons)
Two days after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the president of San Diego State University did what many other college leaders were doing: She sent a campus-wide email supporting her students.
In the email, Adela de la Torre noted “the horrific reports of killings and kidnappings following the Hamas attacks on Israel during Shemini Atzeret/Simchat Torah, a major Jewish holy day,” and said the university was “grieving for all those who are suffering in the wake of this outburst of violence.”
The president included tips on how students could seek support and counseling and added a note of concern for all of the conflict’s victims: “We are deeply struck by the sheer scale of the loss of life – of innocent Israelis, Palestinians, and countless others. We also recognize that this follows a long history of loss of life of civilians in this region.”
What issue was taken with the email?
Now that email, according to a university spokesperson, is at the center of a federal civil rights investigation into SDSU — tied to a complaint that the school “promoted hate and racism against Arabs and Muslims.”
It’s a reversal of the complaints behind many of the 42 other civil rights investigations that the Department of Education has opened against universities and K-12 schools nationwide since Oct. 7. Instead of Jewish groups alleging that the school failed to protect Jewish students, as has been the case in at least a dozen open investigations, the probe into SDSU will determine if the university, 48 hours after the Hamas attacks, should have done more for its Muslim students. A protester carries a smoke flare during a pro-Palestine demonstration near Israel’s Embassy in London, Britain, May 23, 2021 (credit: REUTERS/HENRY NICHOLLS)
While it’s unclear who sent the complaint that triggered the investigation, the school’s chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine harshly criticized the email in question on its Instagram page in the days after it was sent.
The Department of Education, which opened the investigation Tuesday, declined a Jewish Telegraphic Agency request for comment. Its Office for Civil Rights has said that the opening of such investigations does not mean the department believes they have merit, only that the complaint falls under its purview. Investigations focus on whether administrators responded appropriately to allegations of student discrimination. The department does not usually announce the causes of its investigations publicly.Advertisement
The SDSU case is not the first Islamophobia-related investigation the department has opened since Oct. 7; it previously announced that at least two other schools have been investigated for perceived discrimination against Muslim students, alongside many more confirmed to involve allegations of anti-Jewish discrimination. But SDSU officials gave the clearest picture yet of how a renewed interest in discrimination based on shared ancestry on campus — a prime tool of Jewish and pro-Israel legal groups since before Oct. 7 — can also be used to advocate for Muslim students.
In an email to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, a university spokesperson revealed the reason for the investigation and stringently disputed the allegation that the president’s email was Islamophobic.
“The email, which you can read in full online, does not promote hate or racism,” the school’s statement reads. It listed steps the university has taken to help Muslim, Arab and Palestinian students since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, including through a task force designed to combat Islamophobia. The university also has one devoted to antisemitism.
“Student Affairs and Campus Diversity team members have and continue to reach out to individual students, advisors and student organizations who have been impacted by the violence in Israel and Gaza,” the school’s statement said.
On Oct. 13, days after the university president’s email went out, the campus SJP chapter said in a statement that the school “has failed to acknowledge the emotions and well-being of its Palestinian and Muslim students.”
That statement has been co-signed by more than a dozen groups, including SJP chapters at other universities. The group added that it is “DEMANDING” that de la Torre “reassess this hateful and divisive rhetoric being spewed all over campus.”
Among the group’s issues with the email: “The lack of acknowledgment and condemnation of the settler-colonial state of Israel that has inflicted apartheid, genocide, and ethnic cleansing upon the Palestinian people.” The group also pushed SDSU to divest from “corporations that are complicit in Israeli human rights violations.”
Nationwide, several colleges including Rutgers, Brandeis, Columbia and the Florida state university system have suspended their campus SJP chapters.
The Department of Education’s civil rights office announced four other new investigations Wednesday: one at the University of Virginia, and three at different K-12 school districts in Georgia, Missouri and California. The investigations fall under Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits discrimination at federally-funded institutions
A spokesperson for the Georgia district, City Schools of Decatur in suburban Atlanta, told JTA it “will cooperate fully” with the investigation but did not offer further details on its origins. The district recently came under fire after an equity commissioner sent an Oct. 25 unauthorized email to staff that called Israel’s actions in Gaza “genocide” and urged teachers to “support Gaza” and “facilitate conversations on this topic.” The email included links to articles by the anti-Zionist group Jewish Voice for Peace and the progressive magazine Jewish Currents.
In the Decatur case, an internal investigation at the district recommended the employee be terminated, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that he was still employed as of last month and his LinkedIn profile still lists him as a district employee.
Eytan Davidson, the regional director of the Anti-Defamation League and a parent of a child in the district, wrote in a letter to a local blog that the email was objectionable because “that employee shared unvetted, unauthorized, and misleading political resources under the guise of education that frightened and outraged Jewish families who were reeling from the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.”
Reached for comment, neither the ADL’s office nor the local Jewish federation said they knew about the Title VI investigation.
Little has been reported publicly about the likely roots of the discrimination cases at the other institutions. At the Lammersville Unified School District in California, a spokesperson told JTA that the district is “surprised to learn of an investigation as no complaints about shared ancestry concerns have been raised with the District’s administration. As a result, the District cannot comment on the origins or existence of any concerns.”
Representatives of other institutions did not return JTA requests for comment; some were still on holiday break. The Jefferson Council, a conservative alumni group promoting “intellectual diversity” at the University of Virginia, posted a detailed allegation of what it said was “a hostile environment for Jews” on campus days after the school’s own investigation was opened.
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE
end
SWAMP STORIES
“In Defense Of Democracy”, Desperate Dems Drop ‘Trump Paid Off By Princes & Premiers’ Report (But Suggest No Charges)
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JAN 04, 2024 – 01:40 PM
You know it’s bad when… you bring back the ‘c’-word.
House Democrats appear to be reverting to an old playbook with their latest report claiming President Trump violated the Constitution by accepting payments for leases and hotel stays while in office due to the “collusive participation of foreign states.”
Public documents and internal financial records obtained by Democrats on the House Oversight Committee and seen by The Wall Street Journal showed that countries spent lavishly at Trump’s hotels in Washington and Las Vegas. They also shelled out for payments at his New York properties, spending a total of at least $7.8 million during his time in office.
The Chinese government and entities linked to it spent more than $5.5 million, or nine times that of Saudi Arabia, the next biggest spender, according to the report published Thursday by the panel’s Democratic minority. It argued that the foreign payments identified are “likely only a small fraction” of the true total because of incomplete disclosures.
The report, underpinned by documents provided to House investigators by the accounting firm Mazars USA, offers a fuller picture of how Trump’s businesses benefited during his presidency as foreign officials may have tried to curry favor with Trump.
Democrats will likely raise such questions again if he wins another term in November.
WSJ sheepishly admits that “the findings stem from years of litigation into whether Trump ran afoul of the Constitution’s emoluments clause, which prevents officeholders from accepting anything of value from foreign states without the permission of Congress.”
Which have prompted absolutely no charges at all for Trump or his family.
But, that’s not the point. The report provides defensive ‘whataboutist’ talking points for Biden-backers.
The tone of the report positions Trump’s actions as shockingly treasonous:
“The report’s detailed findings make clear that we don’t have the laws in place to deal with a president who is willing to brazenly convert the presidency into a business for self-enrichment and wealth maximization with the collusive participation of foreign states.
No other president had ever come close before to trying a rip-off like this simply based on vacuuming up foreign government money, which was the cardinal presidential offense and betrayal in the eyes of the Founders – an offense and betrayal made all the more striking here by the offender’s repeated laughable proclamations of “America First!”“
And yet, after 156 pages of horrific ‘facts’, the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability does not call for charges, or an investigation; but instead suggests some reforms for future presidents to:
“ensure that all occupants of the Oval Office abide by the Constitution’s unequivocal language commanding loyalty to the interests of the American people – not the interests of homicidal Saudi monarchs, totalitarian Chinese bureaucratic state capitalists, or other foreign actors looking to obtain policy favors and indulgences by paying off a president or his wholly owned businesses.”
Foreign governments spent money at Trump properties for which they received lodging and meals and whatever other services the Trump properties provided.
However, the Biden crime family received millions from foreign actors and we have no idea what services were provided in return.
* * *
John Melvin
Shocked. I am shocked to discover that hotels charge fees for providing rooms and food for its guests.
Is there any evidence that they grossly overpaid or received something other than room and board?
I’m guessing not, or it would have been in the story.
…and it goes on…
Still, we are sure this report will play non-stop on various news networks for the next 48 hours and will serve as a tool to counter the actual payoffs that the Biden family have directly received, for apparently no services rendered…
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report January 24, 2024 Issue 7152
Independent View of the News
Oil Rises on Middle Eastern Turmoil, Libyan Supply Disruption – BBG West Texas Intermediate rose more than 3% to trade above $72 on Wednesday amid the slew of bullish developments. Libya’s Sharara field, the country’s largest, has begun the process of fully shutting down after protests. The field had been pumping about 300,000 barrels a day recently. Meanwhile, Houthi militants claimed to have attacked another merchant ship in the Red Sea. Iran has dispatched a warship to the waterway, representing its most audacious move to challenge US forces in the key trade route and possibly emboldening the Houthis… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-holds-decline-risk-off-000637890.html
@wolfofwolfst: The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion.Interest payments threatening to eat up half the tax receipts may be the only disciplinary force left to deal with Congress. https://t.co/4qD6tEfp9E
@Geiger_Capital: When people say that the economy is super strong, please understand… We are running a HISTORIC deficit.6.3% of GDP. Never seen before outside of WW2, the GFC or Covid. If we weren’t running this deficit and balanced the budget, or even got close, GDP would be negative. Forgot the Great Depression…
Last week, some entities decided, or gained non-public info, that there will be NO Fed rate cut in March. As a matter of precendent, the Fed avoids fooling with interest rates within six months of a general election – unless there is a systemic or economic problem.
@TuckerCarlson on January 2: Is the Fed lowering rates to get Joe Biden reelected, or is the truth actually much scarier than that?
Powell and his ilk are keenly aware that after their December tone change many people suspect that the Fed is trying to save Joe Biden. At the least, Powell and Fed leftists now must disguise their intentions.
Bond Traders Show Early Signs of Re-Think on Dovish Fed Pivot – BBG JPMorgan’s latest Treasury client survey showed the biggest net drop in long positions since May 2020, according to the latest report covering the week through Jan. 2. It includes Tuesday’s price action, which saw Treasury 10-year yields end the day higher by over 5 basis points.The shift in positioning was driven by both a reduction in longs and new short bets… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-show-early-signs-161846993.html
The Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2. After this morning’s release of the ISM Manufacturing Index from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and -0.4 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
ESHs hit a daily high of 4790.75 when they opened on Tuesday night. They then eased lower and hit a bottom of 4781.75 at 0:11 ET. ESHs then rallied to 4789.00 at 3:20 ET. The dump for the expected European opening rally then commenced. ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 4746.50 at 10:44 ET. ESHs then rallied robustly to 4767.50 at 13:02 ET on trader buying for the 14:00 ET release of FOMC Minutes from its 12/13 meeting.
Traders expected the FOMC to be dovish and to indicate that rates would be cut in March.
USHs traded similarly to ESHs. USHs hit a high of 124 seconds after they opened at 123 31/32. They then sank to 122 25/32 at 10:37 ET. USHs then soared to 124 3/32 at 13:54 ET on buying for the release of the FOMC Minutes. Alas, the FOMC Minutes were not dovish; they were a tad hawkish and did NOT mention a rate debate.
FOMC Minutes Headlines from Bloomberg Fed Minutes Say Officials Saw Policy Remaining Restrictive for Some TimeOfficials Saw Policy Rate Likely at or Near PeakOfficials Acknowledged Projections Show Cuts by End-2024Several Said Rate Could Stay at Peak Longer Than AnticipatedMany Said Easing Financial Conditions Could Present Challenge FOMC Saw Upside Risks to Inflation as Having Diminished Several Officials Said Balance Sheet Plans Indicated Fed Would Slow, Then Stop, Decline Sales Participants Noted Outlooks Were Associated with Unusually Elevated Uncertainty FOMC Minutes from 12/13: “The easing in financial conditions reversed some of the tightening that occurred over the summer and much of the fall.” “Many participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20231213.pdf
ESHs fell to 4748.75 at 14:06 ET and then bounced because the usual suspects proclaimed that the gist of the FOMC Minutes is that Fed rate hikes are over and Quantitative Tightening will end soon.
Fed Minutes Suggest Hikes Are Over, But Offer No Timetable on Cuts – WSJ’s @NickTimiraos
ESHs hit 4771.50 at 14:30 ET and then intractably sank to a daily low of 4741.50 at 15:53 ET. The late upward manipulation failed quickly; ESHs retreated modestly into the NYSE close.
USHs retreated to 123 25/32 at 14:04 ET and then jumped to a new daily high of 124 10/32 at 14:34 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds were +9/32 at the NYSE close; gold declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank; the Nasdaq 100 declined for the 4th day in a row for the first time since late October Oil and gasoline rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much has rate cut psychology changed?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4711.27 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4729.29; 4699.71
@TradingThomas3: March Rate cut probabilities dropping like a rock, >88% last week to 69% today.
Stocks, Bonds Drop in Tandem for Worst Start to Year in Decades The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 1.7%, marking the third-worst first-day performance since the 2001 dot-com bust.Global gauges tell a similar story. Tuesday marked the first time the MSCI All Country World Index of equities and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index of investment-grade debt slumped by as much together on the first full trading day of a year since at least 1999, when daily data for the bond index began… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-bonds-drop-tandem-worst-214011655.html
Today – We warned over the past 3 or 4 sessions that someone of significance was liquidating equities. The risk now is that momentum selling will appear. The S&P 500 Index low yesterday was 4699.71. Bulls need to get the S&P 500 Index appreciably above 4700 to foster enthusiasm for stocks.
The S&P 500 Index has declined for 3 straight sessions. It rarely declines more than three sessions in a row; and it is even more rare for the string to appear from the final day of a year through the first two sessions of a new year. Ergo, traders will play for a rebound rally.
However, 4694-4700 is significant support for the S&P 500 Index. A triple bottom at this level has developed over the past 13 sessions (Chart at link). A decisive decline below 4700 could induce momentum selling. A close below 4703.38 will generate a Bloomberg Trender sell signal on the S&P 500 Index for the first time since October 19, 2023. Today is a very important day for stocks. https://twitter.com/TradingThomas3/status/1742701379859194188
@CyclesFan: The SPX McClellan oscillator turned negative today and closed lower than its December 20 close which is another indicator that the uptrend from the October low likely topped last week and we’re now in a correction. https://twitter.com/CyclesFan/status/1742660345875878228
ESHs are +5.50; USHs are -7/32; and Feb AU is +6.00 at 20:07 ET.
Expected economic data: Dec ADP Employment Change 121k; Initial Jobless Claims 216k, Continuing Claims 1.88m; Dec S&P Global US Services PMI 51.3
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4522; 100-day MA: 4454; 150-day MA: 4447; 200-day MA: 4362 DJIA 50-day MA: 35,464; 100-day MA: 34,823; 150-day MA: 34,700; 200-day MA: 34,354 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4482.88 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4703.38 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4747.18 triggers a buy signal
@Techno_Fog: The Jeffrey Epstein files have been unsealed. We have the documents> Here are the most important John Does.We start with Bill Clinton – John Doe #36 – whose deposition was essential to provide info on his relationship with Maxwell and Epstein Testimony from one witness: Q: “Did Jeffrey ever talk to you about Bill Clinton?” A: “He said one time that Clinton likes them young, referring to girls.” https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1742695232540672122 Allegations against Prince Andrew – Maxwell and Epstein put Prince Andrew’s hand on a minor’s (17 years old) breast. https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1742708222002090397
@paulsperry_: FBI agents drafted an affidavit citing evidence of probable cause of possible Foreign Agents Registration Act violations involving Hunter Biden, Burisma and ex-Vice President Biden –“Political Figure 1” — but prosecutors told them to remove the reference to Joe Biden.
@BillAckman: In light of today’s news, I thought I would try to take a step back and provide perspective on what this is really all about… The techniques that DEI has used to squelch the opposition are found in the Red Scares and McCarthyism of decades past. If you challenge DEI, “justice” will be swift, and you may find yourself unemployed, shunned by colleagues, cancelled, and/or you will otherwise put your career and acceptance in society at risk. The DEI movement has also taken control of speech. Certain speech is no longer permitted. So-called “microaggressions” are treated like hate speech. “Trigger warnings” are required to protect students. “Safe spaces” are necessary to protect students from the trauma inflicted by words that are challenging to the students’ newly-acquired world views. Campus speakers and faculty with unapproved views are shouted down, shunned, and cancelled… https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1742441534627184760
@elonmusk: DEI is just another word for racism. Shame on anyone who uses it.DEI, because it discriminates on the basis of race, gender and many other factors, is not merely immoral, it is also illegal
When left of center elites slam DEI, you know the big pendulum has reversed from a leftist extreme.
Israeli soldiers from the 646 Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade operating in Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza, during an Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, January 2, 2023. (credit: OREN BEN HAKOON/FLASH90)
harveyorganblog.com 
