DEC 16//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $27.75 TO $2027.05//SILVER WAS DOWN 8 CENTS TO $22.95//PLATINUM WAS DOWN 414.10 TO $900.10 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN A HUGE $43,65 TI $942,95//IMPORTANT PODCAST TODAY FROM ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//GERMANS BLOCK ROADS IN BERLIN DUE TO ELIMINATION OF DIESEL FUEL SUBSIDY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS//LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH VS ISRAEL//HOUTHIS ATTACKS ON THE WEST OUTLINED//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA DATA: EMPIRE (NEW YORK) MFG. INDEX PLUMMETS//WSJ MOUTHPIECE SOUNDS THE ALARM THAT THE FED IS EXITING QT: A MUST READ//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

January 16, 2024 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $27.75   TO $2027.05

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN 8 cents  AT $22.95

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSED 2027.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: 22.91

Bitcoin morning price:, 43,018  DOWN 852 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $43,327 DOWN 1543 dollars

Platinum price closing  $900.10 DOWN  $14.10

Palladium price;     $942.45 DOWN $43.65

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,736.25 DOWN 23,54 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 272023)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1604.75 DOWN 10.51 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023

*EURO GOLD: 1864.34 DOWN 13.31 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,046.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/12/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 01/17/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 119
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 15
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 176
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 16
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 9
905 C ADM 4

TOTAL: 178 178

 JPMorgan stopped 40/75 contracts.

FOR JAN.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT:  178 NOTICES FOR 17,800 OZ  or  0.5536 TONNES

total notices so far: 3451 contracts for 345,100  oz (10.734 tonnes)


FOR  JANUARY:

SILVER NOTICES  4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 765  for 3,825,000 oz

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : /NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.84 TONNES

SLV//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8  CENTS  AT  THE SLV//

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 433.500 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 1820 CONTRACTS TO 132,268 AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF  $0.62  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND MASSIVE SPEC SHORT COVERING. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION.  WE HAD A HUGE 1768 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1768 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.62), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS. HOWEVER WE HAD A MASSIVE SPEC SILVER SHORT COVERING  AS WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1595  OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD:

A FAIR SIZED 225 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE)    FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  20,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.460 MILLION OZ//

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.460 MILLION OZ 

//MEGA GIGANTIC  SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)   HUGE  SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1768 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 280 CONTRACTS //

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 8165 contracts:   OR 40.825 MILLION OZ  (817 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  40.825 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 40.825 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1820  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 225  ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF  6.665 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.460 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD  EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS;  6.460 MILLION OZ/

NEW STANDING  6.460 million OZ   /// WE HAVE A  GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1595 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A HUGE SIZED 1768 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED   DURING THE  FRIDAY  COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH MAMMOTH SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS.  THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT  (1768) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .

WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA GIGANTIC  SIZED 20,090 CONTRACTS  TO 498,334 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  – removed 580 CONTRACTS

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 10,495 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $31.65 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 37200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 11.5169 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $31.65 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN  OF 21,604 OI CONTRACTS (67.19) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2109 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497.739

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,495 CONTRACTS  WITH 20,090  CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2109 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,604 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED):  A MEGA MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 34,364 CONTRACTS. (  THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MEGA ISSUANCE FOR T.A.S. //. GREATER THAN 30,000 ISSUANCE)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2109 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (19,495) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21,604 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 37,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.5769 TONNES.  / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERINGS//    4)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5)    FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  HUMONGOUS T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 34,364 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 34,440 CONTRACTS OR 3,444,000 OZ OR 107.12 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3440  EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  107.12 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  107.12/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     107.12 TONNES (WILL EQUAL LAST MONTH’S ISSUANCE OR A LITTLE GREATER)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1820  CONTRACTS OI  TO  132,268 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE  225  CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MARCH  225  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  225  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 1540 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 225  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE   SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1595 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 7.97 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $.62 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.70 PTS OR 0.27%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 350.41 PTS OR 2.16%          /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 282.61 OR 0.79%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.07%    /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1895   /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2137 /Oil DOWN TO 73.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 7.24/ Stocks in Europe OPENED   ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED  19,494 CONTRACTS  TO 498,334 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.65 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE  COMEX SESSION WITH MAJOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS. 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2109  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  FEB 2109 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2109 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED TOTAL OF 21,604  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2109 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED  19,495 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.65 FRIDAY COMEX.  AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A MEGA MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED   34,364 CONTRACTS. (SO MUCH FOR LAW AND ORDER AT THE COMEX). THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JAN  (11.5769 TONNES)  ( NON  ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

JAN ’24.      11.5769 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $31.65) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS  WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN  OF 21,604 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING .   THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED   CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 69.048 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  37,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (1.157 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 11.5769 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN  IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $31.65  

WE HAD – REMOVED  514 CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 21,604 CONTRACTS OR 2,160,400 OZ OR 67.19 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 299,804 good //t.a.s. induced. 

final gold volumes/yesterday  344,938/ strong t.a.s. induced

//speculators have left the gold arena

JAN 16  INITIAL

/ /// THE JAN  2024 GOLD CONTRACT

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz



482.265 OZ
JPMorgan
15 kilobars




















 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz






 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today178  notice(s)
17800 OZ
0.5538 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  271  contracts 
  27100 oz
0.8429 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3451  notices
345,100 oz
10.734 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 1

i)JPMorgan: 482.265 oz

(15 kilobars)

total withdrawals 482.265 oz

we had  0 deposits

total deposits NIL oz

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 449  contracts having GAINED 297 contracts.  We had 75 notices served on Friday, so we gained 372 contracts or an additional 37,200 oz will stand for delivery at the comex  

FEB LOST ONLY 11,215 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 241,986

March GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 335.

APRIL GAINED 26,280 CONTRACTS RISING TO 190,677.

We had  178 contracts filed for today representing  17800    oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  178   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 16 notice(s) was (were) stopped  ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3451 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JAN. (449  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  178 x 100 oz per contract equals  372,200 OZ  OR 11.5769 TONNES 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN. contract month:  No of notices filed so far (3451) x 100 oz +  (449) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (178)  x 100 oz) which equals  372,200 oz standing OR 11.5769 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 11.5769 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,474,682.951   45.86 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  20,025,132,045 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,237,397.739  (287,32  tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,787,734,306 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,762,715 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 241.45 tonnes

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 16/INITIAL

//2024// THE JAN 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory78,596.550 oz

Delaware
CNT









































































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ





 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory599,332.020 oz
CNT













 











































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)4 CONTRACT(S)  
 (20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)327 contracts 
(1,635,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 765 Contracts
 (3,825,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 deposits customer account:

i) Into CNT 599,337.020 oz

total customer deposits 599,337.020   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 132.534  million oz/280.977 million  or 46.97%

Comex withdrawals: 2

i0 Out of Delaware 998.400 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 77,579.150 oz

total deposit: 78,596.550 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.810 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 280.977 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 331  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 62  CONTRACT(S).  WE HAD 67 NOTICES SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 5  CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX 

FEB GAINED 97 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 807

MARCH LOST 2480 CONTRACTS TO 102,534

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  62,045//fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 76,975excellent//t.a.s.induced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 765 x  5,000 oz = 3,825,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (331) and the number of notices served upon today  4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month:  765 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (331) – number of notices served upon today (4 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN  contract month equates to 5.460 MILLION OZ.  to which we add our  exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.460 million oz/  

 New total standing: 6.460 million oz.

There are 42,810 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.75  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES

DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES

DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES

DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES

DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES

DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 864.99 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ

DEC  29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC  28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC  27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS

DEC  26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ

DEC  22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ

DEC  21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC  20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC  19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC  18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ

DEC  14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ

DEC  13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ

DEC  12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 433.500 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

END

2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino

Mathew Piepenburg…

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:

Sprott’s John Hathaway: Why gold and gold mining shares should be soaring

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-01-12 22:32Section: Daily Dispatches

11:07p ET Friday, January 12, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management portfolio manager John Hathaway this week issued another one of those painstakingly researched and detailed reports showing why the gold price and the prices of gold mining company shares should be soaring but without explaining why they are not already keeping up with what would seem to be the traditional fundamentals for the monetary metal.

How can the gold price and the prices of gold mining shares be analyzed without reference to the great force of government policy long applied to keep those prices down? 

Hathaway is expert at it. Even so, as always something is missing. 

Hathaway’s report is headlined “Gold Mining Stocks, A Clear and Compelling Investment Case,” and it’s posted at the Sprott internet site here:

https://sprott.com/insights/sprott-gold-report-gold-mining-stocks-a-clear-and-compelling-investment-case/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Alasdair Macleod….

Alasdair Macleod carries the sound-money message to Substack

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-01-14 20:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
Saturday, January 13, 2024

It is clear to me that as head of research for Goldmoney, most of the time I am preaching to the converted — those of us who understand the difference between gold and fiat currencies. We are all broadly aware that the price of gold is rising because governments are debasing their currencies.

Over the decades, GATA has done a magnificent job of exposing the manipulation and government propaganda side-lining gold, which we know is real money. We all owe Chris Powell and Bill Murphy our gratitude for their tireless and mostly thankless dedication to the sound-money cause over the last 25 years.

I believe it now behoves us to redouble our efforts to build on GATA’s work and spread our knowledge to the widest possible audience. The timing couldn’t be better, for the following reasons.

Gold is now establishing the $2,000 level as a base, and if it continues to rise through $2,100, we can be certain that public interest in gold will grow. Those wholly unfamiliar with why gold is rising will want to know why and whether they should buy gold and related investments. This includes investment managers who have lost sight of the commodity space generally.

Global investment portfolios are estimated to be worth $150 trillion and are less than 1% invested in gold and gold exchange-traded funds. With increasing credit and geopolitical risks, including those faced by fiat currencies themselves, we can be certain that this anomaly will lead to substantial demand for gold and related investments. To put this in context, a 1% increase in global portfolio exposure to gold would be the equivalent of a purchase of more than 23,000 tonnes at current values.

Despite above-ground stocks estimated at about 200,000 tonnes, physical liquidity in bullion markets is severely limited now that central banks are buying in record quantities. When a bull market in gold becomes more widely recognized, severe underweighting in portfolios and lack of liquidity are bound to have a dramatic impact on prices.

The reasons for these potential developments are and will continue to be poorly understood. I believe that there is important work to be done educating and explaining to a wider audience why gold appears to be rising when in fact it is the value of currencies falling. For this reason, I have established an internet site —

alasdairmacleod.substack.com 

— to reach the widest possible audience, exploiting social media channels to spread the word.

I continue to write and act for Goldmoney, but from next month my more detailed analyses will be available only to paying subscribers on my Substack channel.

I would ask regular readers of GATA’s dispatches to similarly educate their families and friends, or if that proves too difficult or inappropriate, to encourage them to subscribe to my Substack channel.

—–

END

In case you missed this important podcast, I am repeating it for you

(Andrew Maguire/Live from the vault)

Physical pricing replaces derivative pricing of gold and oil this year, Maguire says

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-01-12 21:41Section: Daily Dispatches

9:42p ET Friday, January 12, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

This will be the year when the derivatives system of pricing gold and oil is replaced by physical pricing, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells Shane Morand on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program.

Indeed, Maguire says one central bank may begin repricing gold as soon as this month.

The program is 46 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS

end

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /lithium

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

end

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1895

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2137

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 7.70 PTS OR 0.27%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 350.91 PTS OR 2.16%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 282.61 PTS OR 0.79%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:   ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX UP  TO  102.93 EURO FALLS TO 1.0885 DOWN 59 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.590 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.70/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN  CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN//  OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and  DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2040***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.795** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.148…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.287

3j Gold at $2038.50 silver at: 23.05 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 24 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 87.83//

3m oil into the 73  dollar handle for WTI and  78  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 145,48//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.590% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8603 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9366 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.005 UP 6 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.224  UP 4 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.213 UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.11…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 8  BASIS PTS AT 3.824

end

2.a  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge.

Futures Slide As Dollar Surges, 10Y Yields Rise Above 4%

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 08:02 AM

US equity futures fell for a second day as the dollar rose to a one-month high and as 10Y yield pushed back over 4.00% after various central banks pushed back against bets on aggressive interest rate cuts. As of 7:30am, S&P futures were down 0.4%, well off session lows, while Nasdaq futures lost about 0.5%. Meanwhile, Brent rose to around $79 a barrel as Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea keep tensions high. In other news, Iowa voters delivered Donald Trump a victory in Monday’s caucuses, moving him one step closer to a White House return. Among corporate highlights, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group report earnings before the markets open.

In premarket trading, Boeing slumped again after Wells Fargo downgrades the planemaker to equal-weight from overweight, seeing a higher risk of production and/or delivery impacts with the US Federal Aviation Administration taking a closer look into Boeing’s operations. Elon Musk leaned on Tesla’s board to arrange another massive performance award for him after he sold a significant chunk of his stake in the company to acquire Twitter. Tesla shares slip 2.3% in US premarket trading after Elon Musk said he would rather build AI products outside of the the electric vehicle maker if he doesn’t have 25% voting control, suggesting the billionaire may prefer a bigger stake in the company.

Stocks pared losses after the ECB’s monthly survey showed consumer expectations for euro-zone inflation fell to the lowest in more than 1 1/2 years in November. Money markets held interest-rate cut wagers broadly steady after the ECB data, pricing the first quarter-point reduction by April followed by almost five more by year-end. Economic data in the UK, meanwhile, also supported the case for Bank of England rate cuts in the coming months, with wage growth cooling at one of the fastest paces on record. The pound weakened as much as 0.8% against the dollar and gilt yields edged lower.

Still, sentiment was dented after hawkish comments from the ECB’s Nagel on Monday who said that it was too early to discuss rate cuts. A similar comment was made by ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann on Monday who indicated that cuts this year were not assured given lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. Their sentiments echoed prior comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that it’s too early to talk about trimming borrowing costs. All were subsequently echoed on Tuesday in Davos, when ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that it’s too early to declare victory on inflation. Traders are now awaiting Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s speech later Tuesday for cues on the timing of a Fed rate cut, with money markets seeing a two-in-three chance of a reduction in March.

“Central banks pushing back on rate cuts is not helping risky assets,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies International. “The market has gone a bit ahead of itself.”

And then there are earnings: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are among the companies reporting results Tuesday, and are expected to reveal the continued lull in investment banking activity as high borrowing costs, geopolitical tensions and recessionary risks dampen deal-making.

European markets were red across the board, extending Monday’s losses. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.6%, with food beverage and media shares are the biggest outperformers, while banking shares leading the decline as JPMorgan analysts said lending revenue will be capped by the peak in interest rates.  Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Experian gains as much as 3.2%, the most in a month, after the credit-data agency narrowed its expectations for full-year organic revenue growth to the 5%-6% area, compared to the previous 4%-6% forecast and the Bloomberg consensus of 5.16%
  • Lindt & Spruengli shares jump as much as 6.8%, most since July 2022, after the Swiss chocolate maker reported 2023 organic sales growth that beat the highest analyst estimate, according to Vontobel
  • Dassault Systemes shares gain as much as 1.8%, outperforming a falling tech sector, after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold. Industry checks suggest that the adoption of the software firm’s cloud-based design platform 3DExperience is increasing in the automotive industry
  • Ocado rallies as much as 7.8%, rebounding from the one-month low hit yesterday, after its grocery business delivered faster sales growth in the fourth quarter than expected
  • Publicis rises as much as 1.4%, to its highest intraday level on record after Goldman Sachs raised the stock to buy, and rated media peers including Relx, Wolters Kluwer, Informa and UMG as buy, saying the most compelling stocks within Europe’s internet and media sector are those that benefit from structural tailwinds
  • QinetiQ Group shares rise as much as 7.9% to touch a two-month high, after the defense company announced a £100 million share buyback program and issued a trading update detailing a rise in full-year revenue
  • DocMorris shares rise as much as 5.7% after full-year 2023 revenue at the Swiss online pharmacy achieved the upper end of its guidance range. The company also reported an increase in active customer numbers for the first time since 2021
  • THG rises as much as 9.4%, rebounding after hitting its lowest level since late October on Monday, after the e-commerce retail company’s guidance for FY23 adjusted Ebitda came in ahead of forecasts, and several of its divisions returned to revenue growth in the latest quarter
  • Hugo Boss shares dropped as much as 11% in Frankfurt, their worst day in nearly four years, with analysts flagging that the German high-end clothing maker’s Ebit disappointed, even as its fourth-quarter sales performance was robust
  • Air France-KLM slips as much as 3.2% to the lowest in six weeks after announcing it would scrap a year-old cargo alliance with container shipping giant CMA CGM, citing a “tight regulatory environment”
  • Wise shares fall as much as 3.4% after the money-transfer firm’s results showed that per-user transaction volume fell among both personal and business accounts. The decline was seen by analysts as a headwind to medium-term growth

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, set to snap three days of gains, as risk sentiment took a breather ahead of key economic data from China and after the ECB tamped down rapid rate cut expectations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, with Tencent, Samsung and BHP among the biggest drags. Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and Australia posted the biggest declines, while Japanese equities fell amid signs that the market may be overbought after eight-straight days of gains for the Topix. China remains in focus ahead of gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales data due Wednesday. Numbers are projected to show improvement in the economy in a rebound from periods of pandemic restrictions, and some investors have been turning bullish on the country’s beaten-down stock market.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the losses in the mainland initially cushioned after a substantial PBoC liquidity operation, while Beijing reportedly told some institutional investors in recent days not to sell stocks.
  • Nikkei 225 extended beneath the 36,000 level owing to slightly higher yields and firmer-than-expected PPI data.
  • ASX 200 retreated with miners among the worst hit after lower iron ore output and shipments by Rio Tinto.
  • Stocks in India posted their first retreat in six sessions on Tuesday, dragged by profit taking in index heavyweight Reliance Industries and information technology firms, which had rallied recently. The S&P BSE SENSEX Index fell 0.3% to 73,128.77 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. BSE’s measure of real estate companies, which was the best performer among its sectoral gauges in 2023, slipped 1.6% — its biggest single-day drop since Dec. 20.

There have been “a few recent economic data points challenging the consensus view of rapid and deep rate cuts,” said Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management. “It’s been enough for equity investors to pause and sell into the recent strength.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index climbed to a one-month high and Treasury yields rose, as trading re-opened after MLK Jr. Day. The risk sensitive Scandinavian currencies and Australian dollar led Group-of-10 losses, as central bankers pushed back on market rate cut bets. The Japanese yen sunk to a one-month low, while the British pound dropped on cooling UK wage growth.

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose to its highest level since Dec. 13 as the dollar gained against all Group-of-10 peers, the Australian dollar, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone led losses as risk-off sentiment swept through markets
  • USD/JPY climbed as much as 0.6% to 146.65, a one-month high; One-week implied volatility between the currency pair implied traders don’t expected fireworks out of next week’s BOJ meeting but are positioning for the possibility of surprisingly hawkish forward guidance
  • GBP/USD dropped as much as 0.7% to 1.2635, the lowest level since Jan. 5; UK wage growth data cooled at one of the fastest paces on record
  • EUR/USD fell as much as 0.6% to 1.0883 as the euro fell for a fourth day; Consumer expectations for euro-zone inflation dropped to the lowest in more than one and a half years, ECB’s Villeroy said rate cuts were probable but pushed back on the timing priced by markets

In rates, Treasury yields cheaper by 6bp to 7bp across the curve as cash market reopens following Monday’s close, during which futures were led lower by bunds. Treasury 10-year yields around 4.01%, cheaper by around 7bp vs Friday’s close with higher yields helping the greenback, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.6% ahead of a speech by Fed Governor Waller. Curve spreads are broadly within 1bp of Friday levels. Fed-dated OIS have around 17bp of rate cuts priced in for the March policy meeting vs 19bp on Friday. In Europe, the slide in bunds occurred after ECB policymaker Holzmann warned against rate cuts this year. Fed’s Waller is slated to speak at 11am New York time, heavy corporate issuance is expected this week and a 20-year bond auction is ahead Wednesday.

In commodities, oil prices were steady as continued Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea that are keeping tensions high in the Middle East were offset by a shaky global economic outlook and gains in the dollar. Global benchmark Brent held above $78 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $73. Spot gold fell 0.9% below $2040.

Bitcoin rose +0.4%, holding just below the $43k level with Ethereum also posting modest gains.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK labor market data, Germany’s ZEW survey for January, Canada’s CPI for December, and in the US, we get the Empire State manufacturing survey for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Fed Governor Waller and the ECB’s Villeroy. Lastly, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,793.25
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 165.28
  • MXAPJ down 1.5% to 503.27
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 35,619.18
  • Topix down 0.8% to 2,503.98
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 15,865.92
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,893.99
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 73,170.25
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 7,414.79
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,497.59
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 472.12
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.22%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $1.0894
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $78.62/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $2,041.01
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.70% to 103.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China is weighing 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) of new debt issuance under a so-called special sovereign bond plan, only the fourth such sale in the past 26 years. The sale of ultra-long bonds would fund projects in areas including food and energy, people familiar said. BBG
  • William Lai Ching-te won the Taiwan presidential election on Saturday, as expected, securing a 3rd term in power for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai took 40% of the vote followed by Hou Yu-I from the Kuomintang (KMT) at 33.5% (the KMT is considered more conciliatory toward China) and Ko Wen-je from Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at 26.5%. RTRS
  • AAPL is offering rare discounts on its iPhones in China, cutting retail prices by as much as 500 yuan ($70) amid growing competitive pressure in the world’s biggest smartphone market. RTRS
  • ECB’s Holzmann warns markets not to expect the first rate cut in April and says there may not be any decreases this year. CNBC
  • Houthi militants hit a US-owned container vessel with a missile in the Gulf of Aden. Gibraltar Eagle, carrying steel products, suffered limited damage. Washington warned its merchant ships to avoid the area. PM Rishi Sunak told Parliament that the UK wants to reduce tensions and its air strikes are “self-defense.” BBG
  • Though the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates last summer, it is quietly tightening monetary policy through another channel: shrinking its $7.7 trillion holdings of bonds and other assets by around $80 billion a month. Now that, too, may change. Fed officials are to start deliberations on slowing, though not ending, that so-called quantitative tightening as soon as their policy meeting this month. WSJ
  • Biden’s campaign raises $97MM in Q4 and has $117MM of cash on hand, formidable numbers that provide an important monetary tailwind for the president heading into November. BBG
  • Trump dominates Iowa (as expected) at 51% followed by DeSantis at 21.2% and Haley at 19.1% while Ramaswamy exits the race w/a 7.7% showing. WaPo
  • Global core inflation picked up modestly in December on a 1-month basis, but the 3-month annualized rate has slowed further to 2.0%. We still expect the Fed to start easing in March, with a total of 5 cuts in 2024 (slightly less than market pricing). The ECB should follow in April and the BoE in May, and our views on both central banks are somewhat dovish relative to market pricing. By contrast, we expect only modest macro policy easing in China, despite sluggish growth and very low inflation. The combination of falling inflation, easier monetary policy, and solid growth should provide a friendly backdrop for risk asset markets. GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and amid the upside in yields. ASX 200 retreated with miners among the worst hit after lower iron ore output and shipments by Rio Tinto. Nikkei 225 extended beneath the 36,000 level owing to slightly higher yields and firmer-than-expected PPI data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the losses in the mainland initially cushioned after a substantial PBoC liquidity operation, while Beijing reportedly told some institutional investors in recent days not to sell stocks.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 760bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 695bln net injection.
  • Chinese authorities reportedly told some institutional investors in recent days not to sell stocks as the Chinese stock rout resumes, according to FT.
  • Chinese President Xi stresses boosting high-quality development of the country’s financial sector, according to Reuters citing state media.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) CEO says China is not a large business for the Co.
  • China is said to be mulling more stimulus with USD 139bln of special bonds, according to Bloomberg sources; proposals include the sale of ultra-long sovereign bonds to fund projects. Projects are related to projects related to food, energy, supply chains and urbanisation, sources added.
  • Japanese government is to increase new bond issuance by USD 3.43bln to fund extra budget reserves (following recent earthquakes); there will be no change to JGB issuance sold to market
  • Chinese Premier Li says China’s economy is making steady progress; Chinese economy rebounded in 2023 and had an estimated growth of 5.2%, higher than the 5% target; says in promoting development, China did not resort to massive stimulus. Comes ahead of the Chinese GDP and activity data on Wednesday.

European equities, Stoxx 600 (-0.5%), are trading on the back-foot having sunk at the open, following a negative handover from APAC trade overnight, in the absence of a lead from Wall Street. European sectors have a strong negative tilt; Media is marginally firmer after a broker upgrade at Publicis (+1.2%). Banks are lower following a slew of downgrades at JPM and a cut in EPS estimates for Commerzbank (-4.5%). US equity futures are lower across the board, in tandem with European counterparts, though with losses slightly more pronounced; the Russell 2000 (-0.9%) underperforms. Earnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley due, among others, in the pre-market.

Top European News

  • British pension funds are preparing to “flood the market” with billions of GBP’s of private assets, according to Bloomberg. As much as GBP 200bln in assets could be offloaded as rising interest rates provide funds with an opportunity to offload the part of the risk of meeting future liabilities.
  • BofA January Fund Manager Survey: cash levels up, more investors expect short term rates to be lower in the next 12 months, more expect a weaker Chinese economy than a stronger one.
  • Ocado (OCDO LN) Retail CEO is not expecting much impact on business from the Red Sea/Suez Canal disruptions
  • German economy is expected to grow 0.3% in 2024, according to German BDI Industry Association; German economy is at a standstill and there is no change of a rapid recovery
  • ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Nov) – 12-months ahead 3.2% (prev. 4.0%); 3-year ahead 2.2% (prev. 2.5%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months -1.2% (prev. -1.3%)

FX

  • Dollar is firmer alongside the risk averse mood and as US yields rise after cash closure for MLK day; DXY took out 103.00 and surpassed the post-NFP high of 103.10, with the 200DMA at 103.41 now in sight. Fed’s Waller at 16:00GMT/11:00EST will be in focus for the Dollar.
  • EUR/USD has lost its 1.09 status amid the strength in the USD, less hawkish ECB speak and softer consumer inflation expectations. Today’s trough at 1.0881 with yesterday’s low at 1.0876 just below.
  • Cable is swept up by Dollar buying, with lower UK wage data also not helping the Pound. On release, Cable sank lower before then entirely paring the move.
  • Antipodeans are the G10 underperformers, in tandem with the cautious risk tone; support at 0.66 for the AUD/USD has broken in recent trade.
  • USD/CNH bid and continuing to lift; focus on earlier sources around potential special bond stimulus and thereafter Premier Li on GDP, ahead of Wednesday’s figures.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1134 vs exp. 7.1783 (prev. 7.1084).

Fixed Income

  • Treasuries pressured to a 112-05 trough, yields bear-flattening as cash reacts to Monday’s ECB speak.
  • Bunds are struggling for direction & drawn to the mid-point of 134.94-135.42 parameters after Monday’s hawkish move on numerous ECB officials. Remarks thus far from Villeroy, Centeno & Valimaki at Davos stress data-dependency.
  • Despite the dovish wage figures, Gilts opened 16 ticks lower at 99.91 as the bias from US yields dominates. Since, Gilts have lifted to a 100.33 peak, shy of last week’s 100.47-69 highs.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.04x (prev. 2.68x) and real yield 0.423% (prev. 0.724%)
  • Germany sells EUR 3.2bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.10% 2029 Bobl; b/c 2.1x (prev. 2.07x), average yield 2.12% (prev. 2.56%), and retention 20.0% (prev. 19.2%)
  • France is seeing in excess of EUR 74bln in demand for its new green bond, according to lead managers; spread set at 8bps over outstanding June 2044 (initial guidance +10bp)

Commodities

  • An upward bias is seen in crude prices this morning, with the complex resilient to the surging Dollar and broader risk aversion as the downside is countered by escalating geopolitics coupled with reports of further Chinese stimulus and Premier Li on GDP; Brent at highs of USD 79.18/bbl.
  • Precious metals feel the pressure from the surge in the Dollar and yields stateside; XAU fell from a USD 2,055.22/oz intraday peak to levels under its 21 DMA (USD 2,044.44/oz).
  • Base metals are mostly lower but were lifted off worst levels amid reports that China is mulling further stimulus.
  • First Quantum is to reduce operating activities at its Ravensthorpe nickel operation and will cut workforce at the site by 30% after a significant downturn in nickel prices during 2023, combined with higher operating costs in Western Australia.
  • India’s Oil Minister says India has opened up to every possible supplier; Indian demand for energy will not peter off for a while

Central Bank speak

  • ECB’s Villeroy says it is too early to declare victory over inflation, most monetary policy transmission is more or less over. Will not remark on the season for the next ECB move; but the next move should be a cut this year. Can see a soft landing in both Europe and the US. Estimates R to be around zero within the Euro-area.
  • ECB’s Centeno says ECB needs to be prepared for all topics, including rate cuts; says recent data confirmed Dec projections, but inflation was slightly below forecast. Inflation is coming down sustainably, should not be worried about resurgence of real wages. Q1 growth could remain around zero. Expects contained wage demand. Inflation trajectory is very positive at this point.
  • ECB’s Valimaki says inflation is on the right track but job is not done so restrictive monetary policy is still called for; must not jump the gun on rate cuts and best to wait a bit longer than exit prematurely. Soft landing for economy still the baseline but risks tilted towards downside. Wage data so far consistent with ECB’s December projections.
  • ECB’s Nagel (hawk) says it’s too early to discuss rate cuts as inflation remains too high, maybe the ECB can wait until after the summer break; markets are sometimes over optimistic – Bloomberg TV interview.
  • ECB’s Holzmann (hawk) says rate cut expectations are optimistic; shouldn’t count on rate cuts at all in 2024 – CNBC interview.
  • ECB’s Herodotou says it is too soon to contemplate policy easing or the pace of easing – Econostream Media interview
  • ECB’s Lane, weekend remarks: will have key data by June to decide on rates and that changing rates too fast can be harmful, while he added that once the ECB begins lowering rates, this would not be by a single decision of a rate cut and there would likely be a sequence of rate cuts – Corriere Della Serra.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Explosions were reported in different areas in Erbil, northern Iraq and in Syria, according to Al Arabiya IRGC said it attacked and destroyed the espionage headquarters of Israel’s Mossad in Iraq’s Kurdistan and it targeted Islamic State in Syria in response to the group’s recent terrorist attacks in Iran, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said the US strongly condemned Iran’s attacks in Erbil on Monday, while US officials said no US facilities were impacted by missile strikes in Erbil, Iraq and there were no US casualties, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Sunak signalled the UK could participate in further strikes against Houthi rebels and told MPs that Britain will not hesitate to protect its interests where required, according to FT.
  • Houthi military spokesman said they consider all American and British vessels and warships participating in aggression against them as hostile targets, according to Reuters.
  • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and advisors are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea, according to SEMAFOR.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Ukraine President Zelenskiy asked Switzerland to organise a high-level peace conference, while teams will start on plans today.
  • North Korea decided to shut down organisations dealing with unification and inter-Korean tourism, while North Korean leader Kim said they do not want war but have no intention to avoid it. Furthermore, Kim said war will destroy South Korea and deal an unimaginable defeat to the US, according to KCNA.
  • South Korean President Yoon said North Korea’s recent missile launch and artillery firing are political acts to divide South Koreans and its provocations will be met with response on a multiplied scale, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Jan. Empire Manufacturing, est. -5.0, prior -14.5

Central Bank Speakers

  • 11:00: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to print, we have 95% of the votes counted from the Iowa Caucus. Former President Donald Trump has easily won the first test of this election year with 51.1% of the vote so far, according to CNN. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in second place (21.2%) followed by a third-place finish for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (19%). Also, Vivek Ramaswamy (7.7%), suspended his presidential campaign after a fourth-place finish. The polling averages in the state before the vote were Trump (53%), Haley (19%), and DeSantis (16%), so DeSantis has slightly outperformed.

The next stop is New Hampshire on Tuesday next we ek , where Haley is running in a strong second, with the current FiveThirtyEight polling average at Trump (43%), Haley (30%) and DeSantis (6%). Her campaign’s hope is they can win New Hampshire, and then also take the third contest in South Carolina on February 3 (where Haley was Governor from 2011-17).

Before the votes, yesterday was a lighter session for markets given the US holiday, but it was fairly negative where trading did take place, since European equities and bonds struggled after several ECB officials pushed back on the possibility of rate cuts. By the close, that meant the STOXX 600 was down -0.54%, whilst yields on 10yr bunds were also up +7.3bps to 2.23%. And that wasn’t just confined to Europe, as US futures markets were also pointing to bonds and equity losses there too. Overnight 2 and 10yr US yields are both +6bps higher and S&P and NASDAQ futures are -0.36% and -0.5% lower, respectively.

In terms of the comments, markets were partly reacting to an interview that had taken place on Saturday, with ECB chief economist Philip Lane. He warned that the “history of high inflation episodes tells us that if central banks try to normalise too quickly, before the problem is really conquered, then we get another inflation wave, and then another wave of interest rate hikes. That would be a far worse scenario.” So there was an open acknowledgement about the risks of easing prematurely, which is what happened in the 1970s and meant inflation became more entrenched as a result.

But it wasn’t just Lane who commented, as we also heard from some of the hawks on the ECB’s Governing Council, who similarly pushed back on the rate cut discussion. For instance, Bundesbank President Nagel said “I think it’s too early to talk about cuts”, and Austria’s Holzmann even said that “We should not bank on the rate cut at all for 2024.” Even Cyprus’ Herodotou, who’s been a more dovish voice, said that “Any discussion regarding the time and potency of the first rate cut, as well as the pace of further cuts thereafter, would be premature at the moment and would not constitute a data-dependent approach”. So there was a consistent message from various speakers on the hawk-dove spectrum that didn’t sound as though a Q1 rate cut was on the agenda.

All that meant investors grew more sceptical that the ECB would be cutting rates soon, and the likelihood of a cut by March fell to 29%, down from 43% on Friday. That was echoed more broadly as well, as the likelihood of a Fed cut by March fell from 83% on Friday to 74% by yesterday’s close, and the likelihood of a BoE cut by then was down from 35% to 31%. And in turn, that led to a sovereign bond sell-off across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.8bps), OATs (+5.1bps) and BTPs (+7.3bps) all moving higher. 2yr bund and OATs were +6.1bps and +6.7bps higher respectively, so a slightly deeper inversion.

For equities it was much the same story, with the major indices across Europe all getting the week off to a rocky start. Indeed, for the STOXX 600 (-0.54%) it was the worst start to a week in over three months. That was echoed across the continent, with losses for the DAX (-0.49%), the CAC 40 (-0.72%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.39%). That came as the activity data we did get yesterday was fairly weak, with full-year German GDP growth for 2023 coming in at a contractionary -0.3%, in line with expectations. In fact, apart from the Covid pandemic year of 2020, that’s the weakest annual growth since 2009 as the economy faced the impact of the GFC. A technical recession was avoided though as Q3 was revised up a tenth to 0.0% with Q4 likely to be -0.3% when the flash is released on Jan 30th! It wasn’t all bad news, however, as European natural gas futures fell to their lowest level since August, with the front-month contract down to €29.92/MWh.

Asian equity markets are lower this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.92%) the biggest underperformer and with the Nikkei (-0.71%) also halting its record-breaking gains since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (-0.72%) is also losing ground while the CSI (-0.38%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.62%) are also declining.

Early morning data showed that Japanese input prices were unchanged last month from a year earlier, marking its weakest reading in almost three years as the yen’s recent gains (now largely unwound) helped cap import costs. The expectation were for -0.3% though. They increased +0.3% m/m in December as against an upwardly revised gain of +0.3% in November and expectations for 0.0%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK labour market data, Germany’s ZEW survey for January, Canada’s CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, Fed Governor Waller and the ECB’s Villeroy. Lastly, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Negative risk tone with equities lower and Dollar bid, Crude remains firm; Fed’s Waller due – Newsquawk US Market Open

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TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 06:13 AM

  • European bourses are weaker following a negative handover from APAC trade, with US futures also pressured amid yield upside & into earnings
  • Dollar is firmer and Antipodeans are lower amid the risk-averse mood; GBP weighed by Dollar strength and softer UK wage metrics
  • Bonds mixed, with Treasuries pressured as markets react to hawkish ECB speak; Gilts eventually firm post dovish data
  • Crude continues to gain despite Dollar strength amid escalating geopolitical tensions & Chinese stimulus/reports; Base metals initially pressured though bounced such reporting
  • Former US President Trump won the Iowa Republican Caucus with over 51% of the vote, Ramaswamy dropped out
  • Looking ahead, US NY Fed & Canadian CPI, BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Waller, Earnings from Goldman Sachs, PNC Financial Services, Morgan Stanley & Charles Schwab.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European equities, Stoxx 600 (-0.5%), are trading on the back-foot having sunk at the open, following a negative handover from APAC trade overnight, in the absence of a lead from Wall Street.
  • European sectors have a strong negative tilt; Media is marginally firmer after a broker upgrade at Publicis (+1.2%). Banks are lower following a slew of downgrades at JPM and a cut in EPS estimates for Commerzbank (-4.5%).
  • US equity futures are lower across the board, in tandem with European counterparts, though with losses slightly more pronounced; the Russell 2000 (-0.9%) underperforms. Earnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley due, among others, in the pre-market.
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
  • Click here for more details.

FX

  • Dollar is firmer alongside the risk averse mood and as US yields rise after cash closure for MLK day; DXY took out 103.00 and surpassed the post-NFP high of 103.10, with the 200DMA at 103.41 now in sight. Fed’s Waller at 16:00GMT/11:00EST will be in focus for the Dollar.
  • EUR/USD has lost its 1.09 status amid the strength in the USD, less hawkish ECB speak and softer consumer inflation expectations. Today’s trough at 1.0881 with yesterday’s low at 1.0876 just below.
  • Cable is swept up by Dollar buying, with lower UK wage data also not helping the Pound. On release, Cable sank lower before then entirely paring the move.
  • Antipodeans are the G10 underperformers, in tandem with the cautious risk tone; support at 0.66 for the AUD/USD has broken in recent trade.
  • USD/CNH bid and continuing to lift; focus on earlier sources around potential special bond stimulus and thereafter Premier Li on GDP, ahead of Wednesday’s figures.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1134 vs exp. 7.1783 (prev. 7.1084).
  • Click here for more details.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Treasuries pressured to a 112-05 trough, yields bear-flattening as cash reacts to Monday’s ECB speak.
  • Bunds are struggling for direction & drawn to the mid-point of 134.94-135.42 parameters after Monday’s hawkish move on numerous ECB officials. Remarks thus far from Villeroy, Centeno & Valimaki at Davos stress data-dependency.
  • Despite the dovish wage figures, Gilts opened 16 ticks lower at 99.91 as the bias from US yields dominates. Since, Gilts have lifted to a 100.33 peak, shy of last week’s 100.47-69 highs.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.04x (prev. 2.68x) and real yield 0.423% (prev. 0.724%)
  • Germany sells EUR 3.2bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.10% 2029 Bobl; b/c 2.1x (prev. 2.07x), average yield 2.12% (prev. 2.56%), and retention 20.0% (prev. 19.2%)
  • France is seeing in excess of EUR 74bln in demand for its new green bond, according to lead managers; spread set at 8bps over outstanding June 2044 (initial guidance +10bp)
  • Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

  • An upward bias is seen in crude prices this morning, with the complex resilient to the surging Dollar and broader risk aversion as the downside is countered by escalating geopolitics coupled with reports of further Chinese stimulus and Premier Li on GDP; Brent at highs of USD 79.18/bbl.
  • Precious metals feel the pressure from the surge in the Dollar and yields stateside; XAU fell from a USD 2,055.22/oz intraday peak to levels under its 21 DMA (USD 2,044.44/oz).
  • Base metals are mostly lower but were lifted off worst levels amid reports that China is mulling further stimulus.
  • First Quantum is to reduce operating activities at its Ravensthorpe nickel operation and will cut workforce at the site by 30% after a significant downturn in nickel prices during 2023, combined with higher operating costs in Western Australia.
  • India’s Oil Minister says India has opened up to every possible supplier; Indian demand for energy will not peter off for a while
  • Click here for more details.

Central Bank Speak

  • ECB’s Villeroy says it is too early to declare victory over inflation, most monetary policy transmission is more or less over. Will not remark on the season for the next ECB move; but the next move should be a cut this year. Can see a soft landing in both Europe and the US. Estimates R to be around zero within the Euro-area.
  • ECB’s Centeno says ECB needs to be prepared for all topics, including rate cuts; says recent data confirmed Dec projections, but inflation was slightly below forecast. Inflation is coming down sustainably, should not be worried about resurgence of real wages. Q1 growth could remain around zero. Expects contained wage demand. Inflation trajectory is very positive at this point.
  • ECB’s Valimaki says inflation is on the right track but job is not done so restrictive monetary policy is still called for; must not jump the gun on rate cuts and best to wait a bit longer than exit prematurely. Soft landing for economy still the baseline but risks tilted towards downside. Wage data so far consistent with ECB’s December projections.

On Monday, 15th January

  • ECB’s Nagel (hawk) says it’s too early to discuss rate cuts as inflation remains too high, maybe the ECB can wait until after the summer break; markets are sometimes over optimistic – Bloomberg TV interview.
  • ECB’s Holzmann (hawk) says rate cut expectations are optimistic; shouldn’t count on rate cuts at all in 2024 – CNBC interview.
  • ECB’s Herodotou says it is too soon to contemplate policy easing or the pace of easing – Econostream Media interview
  • ECB’s Lane, weekend remarks: will have key data by June to decide on rates and that changing rates too fast can be harmful, while he added that once the ECB begins lowering rates, this would not be by a single decision of a rate cut and there would likely be a sequence of rate cuts – Corriere Della Serra.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • British pension funds are preparing to “flood the market” with billions of GBP’s of private assets, according to Bloomberg. As much as GBP 200bln in assets could be offloaded as rising interest rates provide funds with an opportunity to offload the part of the risk of meeting future liabilities.
  • BofA January Fund Manager Survey: cash levels up, more investors expect short term rates to be lower in the next 12 months, more expect a weaker Chinese economy than a stronger one.
  • Ocado (OCDO LN) Retail CEO is not expecting much impact on business from the Red Sea/Suez Canal disruptions
  • German economy is expected to grow 0.3% in 2024, according to German BDI Industry Association; German economy is at a standstill and there is no change of a rapid recovery
  • ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Nov) – 12-months ahead 3.2% (prev. 4.0%); 3-year ahead 2.2% (prev. 2.5%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months -1.2% (prev. -1.3%)

DATA RECAP

  • UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Nov) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 7.3%, Rev. 7.2%); Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Nov) 6.5% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 7.2%)
  • UK Claimant Count Unem Chng (Dec) 11.7k (Prev. 16.0k, Rev. 0.6k); ILO Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%); Employment Change (Nov) 73k (Prev. 50k)
  • UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Dec) -24k (Prev. -13k, Rev. 9k)
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 15.2 vs. Exp. 12.0 (Prev. 12.8); ZEW Current Conditions (Jan) -77.3 vs. Exp. -77.0 (Prev. -77.1)
  • EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Jan) 22.7 (Prev. 23.0)
  • German HICP Final YY (Dec) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%); CPI Final YY (Dec) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%)
  • German CPI Final MM (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); HICP Final MM (Dec) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • Norwegian GDP Month (Nov) 1.2% (Prev. 2.1%. Rev. 2.2%); GDP Month Mainland (Nov) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.3%)
  • Italian CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Dec) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Italian Consumer Prices Final MM (Dec) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • Italian Consumer Prices Final YY (Dec) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%); CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Dec) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Former US President Trump was called as the winner of the Iowa Republican caucuses from very early on, while Edison Research later announced that Trump has 51.1%, DeSantis has 21.2% and Haley has 19.0% with 95% of estimated Iowa caucus votes in; Ramaswamy dropped out thereafter and has given his support to Trump.
  • UBS Global Research raises 2024 SPX target to 5,150 from 4,850 (vs 4,783.83 close on Friday)
  • House and Senate negotiators have agreed on a roughly USD 78bln framework for a package of tax benefits aimed at businesses and low-income families, according to Punchbowl sources; the two sides expect to roll it out this morning

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

  • Explosions were reported in different areas in Erbil, northern Iraq and in Syria, according to Al Arabiya IRGC said it attacked and destroyed the espionage headquarters of Israel’s Mossad in Iraq’s Kurdistan and it targeted Islamic State in Syria in response to the group’s recent terrorist attacks in Iran, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said the US strongly condemned Iran’s attacks in Erbil on Monday, while US officials said no US facilities were impacted by missile strikes in Erbil, Iraq and there were no US casualties, according to Reuters.
  • UK PM Sunak signalled the UK could participate in further strikes against Houthi rebels and told MPs that Britain will not hesitate to protect its interests where required, according to FT.
  • Houthi military spokesman said they consider all American and British vessels and warships participating in aggression against them as hostile targets, according to Reuters.
  • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and advisors are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea, according to SEMAFOR.

OTHER

  • Ukraine President Zelenskiy asked Switzerland to organise a high-level peace conference, while teams will start on plans today.
  • North Korea decided to shut down organisations dealing with unification and inter-Korean tourism, while North Korean leader Kim said they do not want war but have no intention to avoid it. Furthermore, Kim said war will destroy South Korea and deal an unimaginable defeat to the US, according to KCNA.
  • South Korean President Yoon said North Korea’s recent missile launch and artillery firing are political acts to divide South Koreans and its provocations will be met with response on a multiplied scale, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin, +0.4%, holds just below the USD 43k level with Ethereum also posting gains to a similar magnitude.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were pressured in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and amid the upside in yields.
  • ASX 200 retreated with miners among the worst hit after lower iron ore output and shipments by Rio Tinto.
  • Nikkei 225 extended beneath the 36,000 level owing to slightly higher yields and firmer-than-expected PPI data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood but with the losses in the mainland initially cushioned after a substantial PBoC liquidity operation, while Beijing reportedly told some institutional investors in recent days not to sell stocks.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 760bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 695bln net injection.
  • Chinese authorities reportedly told some institutional investors in recent days not to sell stocks as the Chinese stock rout resumes, according to FT.
  • Chinese President Xi stresses boosting high-quality development of the country’s financial sector, according to Reuters citing state media.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) CEO says China is not a large business for the Co.
  • China is said to be mulling more stimulus with USD 139bln of special bonds, according to Bloomberg sources; proposals include the sale of ultra-long sovereign bonds to fund projects. Projects are related to projects related to food, energy, supply chains and urbanisation, sources added.
  • Japanese government is to increase new bond issuance by USD 3.43bln to fund extra budget reserves (following recent earthquakes); there will be no change to JGB issuance sold to market
  • Chinese Premier Li says China’s economy is making steady progress; Chinese economy rebounded in 2023 and had an estimated growth of 5.2%, higher than the 5% target; says in promoting development, China did not resort to massive stimulus. Comes ahead of the Chinese GDP and activity data on Wednesday.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Corporate Goods Price MM (Dec) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.2%); Corporate Goods Price YY (Dec) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index 81.0 (Prev. 82.1) Westpac Consumer Sentiment MM (Jan) -1.3% (Prev. 2.7%)

2C ASIA AFFAIRS

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.70 PTS OR 0.27%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 350.41 PTS OR 2.16%          /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 282.61 OR 0.79%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.07%    /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1895   /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2137 /Oil DOWN TO 73.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 7.24/ Stocks in Europe OPENED   ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA/USA

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA

CHINA/

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

First it was Dutch farmers who protested vehementedly on government, now the Germans

(zerohedge)

Thousands Of Tractors Blocks Berlin Traffic Over Plan To End Diesel Subsidy

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Thousands of German truck drivers, farmers, and agricultural workers have parked in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin in protest over the government’s ‘green’ plan to end tax breaks on diesel fuel.(Liesa Johannssen/Reuters)

Approximately 3,000 tractors had arrived for the protest on Monday according to police, who said that another estimated 2,000 were on their way in what may be the climax of weeklong protests. Berlin Police Chief Barbara Slowik told city leaders that a total of 1,300 officers had been deployed.

Major service delays were reported by Berlin’s public transit agency, after around 10,000 people registered for demonstrations against the plan by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to cut subsidies.

Not making things better, Finance Minister Christian Lindner told thousands of protesting farmers that the country has run out of money for further subsidies. The government announcement is part of a plan to try and fix a 17-billion-euro (US$18.6 billion) hole in Germany’s 2024 budget, AP reported last week.

“I can’t promise you more state aid from the federal budget,” he said, adding “But we can fight together for you to enjoy more freedom and respect for your work.”

The head of the farmers union, Joachim Rukwied, snatched the microphone from Lindner to ask the crowd to stop booing, telling them: “I have respect for every politician who is prepared to come to us … The finance minister is here, it makes no sense to boo him.”

Of course, the government also justified the cuts as ‘required’ after the country’s highest court annulled an earlier decision to redirect nearly US$66 billion originally meant to mitigate fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic in order to combat climate change and modernize the country.

According to a Saturday message from Scholz, “we took the farmers’ arguments to heart,” adding that he thinks the government has arrived at “a good compromise.”

No according to the farmers.

END

FRANCE/

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/

Ra’anana is an English speaking city just north of Tel Aviv.  A terror attack leaves one dead and many wounded

(Jerusalem Post)

Ra’anana terror attack leaves multiple wounded, one dead, Hamas claims responsibility

The terrorists stabbed a bystander, then swapped vehicles three times after crashing, the police stated. The terrorists were from Hebron and were later arrested. 

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 15, 2024 14:01Updated: JANUARY 15, 2024 22:26

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IDF troops on the scene of the attack, Ra'anana. January 15, 2024. (photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)

IDF troops on the scene of the attack, Ra’anana. January 15, 2024.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI)

Hamas claimed responsibility for the combined ramming and stabbing attacks in Ra’anana on Monday afternoon, which left over a dozen people wounded and one person dead.

A terrorist stabbed a woman while another terrorist stole a car and proceeded to carry out ramming attacks in several locations, Israel Police confirmed. The terrorist swapped vehicles three times after crashing, the police stated. The terrorists were Muhammad Zaidat, 44, and Ahmed Zaidat, 24, both from Hebron and were later arrested. Two people were slightly injured after being run over on Haroshet Street, where a 66-year-old man was also seriously stabbed.An additional fifteen people were injured to varying degrees, including a 34-year-old man and a 16-year-old boy in serious condition with head injuries, as a result of the ramming on Ahuza Street, the main street of the city. 

France’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that two of the wounded parties hold French citizenship.

The director of the emergency medicine department at the Schneider Pediatric Center, Dr. Ron Brunett, said that seven children were brought in for treatment. Six of the children are aged between 10-16 and are in mild condition.

An eyewitness told Maariv that the road was “unusually quiet,” and that’s when he heard two cars crashing into each other. “I was sure that it was a car accident,” Eden Alfi said. “Another person was with me, noticed the situation and shouted ‘an attack, an attack’. After that, I saw the terrorist. I saw him stabbing a man around 60 years old. The man fell and the terrorist ran away.”

Edna Bluestein, 79, killed in a terror attack in Ra'anana on January 15, 2024 (credit: COURTESY OF THE FAMILY)
Enlrage image

Edna Bluestein, 79, killed in a terror attack in Ra’anana on January 15, 2024 (credit: COURTESY OF THE FAMILY)Three of the victims overall are in serious condition, seven are in moderate condition, and five are lightly injured. 

The injured were taken to Meir Medical Center in Kfar Saba and Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva.

Viola Hachmon, a paramedic for Magen David Adom (MDA)  who provided first aid on Ahuza Street, told The Jerusalem Post, “This is a very difficult event with many injured. To my knowledge, everyone has already been evacuated to various hospitals, including those in critical condition.”MDA paramedic Eli Raymond, who arrived at one of the scenes, said, “We arrived at the scene with large forces and began performing an initial triage and providing medical treatment to about eight wounded people with different degrees of injury.”

“Nothing justifies terrorism,” the French Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday evening. “Among the wounded are two young Frenchmen. The French consulate in Tel Aviv mobilized to help French citizens in Ra’anana. France wishes a speedy recovery for the wounded – and assures Israel of its solidarity.””Following an unusual incident currently in Ra’anana, police forces are on the scene, and the circumstances of the incident are being investigated,” Israel Police said in a statement. “The public is asked to be vigilant and obey the police officer’s instructions.” 

“Initially, it was unclear whether this was a terrorist attack or a vehicular incident,” Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai said in a statement in Ra’anana on Monday. “However, following swift action by the Kfar Saba police, we understood that there were two terrorists involved and two separate scenes.

“Once we grasped the magnitude of the incident, we deployed forces immediately. Ultimately, thanks to determined action, a very quick pursuit, and the lockdown of the areas, we managed to apprehend the second terrorist. Both terrorists are residents of Hebron, family members who entered the area illegally.”

Schools in the area were placed on lockdown, and parents were told not to take their children outside their homes, the mayor’s office announced after the attacks.

One death

The 79-year-old Edna Bluestein, who was badly wounded during the attack has died, according to Israeli media.This is a developing story.


end

LEBANON/ISRAEL

IDF special forces operate within Lebanon, target Hezbollah

Additionally, Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked an anti-tank launcher belonging to the terrorist organization Hezbollah.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFacebookTwitter

IDF artillery fires towards Hezbollah targets in the Wadi Saluki area in southern Lebanon January 16, 2024 (IDF SPOKERSPERSON’S UNIT

The IDF has expanded its engagement with Hezbollah, undertaking multiple operations in southern Lebanon, it announced on Tuesday.

The initial report was made that IDF special ground forces operated inside Lebanon, killing a terror threat in the Ita al-Sha’ab area.

Additionally, Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked an anti-tank launcher belonging to the terrorist organization Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Early afternoon Tuesday, the IDF reported additional joint strikes to targets in the area.

“A short while ago, the IDF completed combined aerial and artillery strikes on a number of Hezbollah terror targets in the area of Wadi Saluki in Lebanon,” the statement said.

“Within a short amount of time, strikes were carried out against dozens of Hezbollah posts, military structures, and weapons infrastructure. Hezbollah is exploiting the area of the Wadi for its terrorist activity. Numerous assets and infrastructure have been concealed by the terror organization in the forested area, for the purpose of attacking Israeli civilians and soldiers.”Go to the full article >>

END

IDF ‘ready for war’ with Hezbollah tonight, says northern commander

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFacebookTwitter

The Israeli military is more prepared than ever for war with Hezbollah in the North, IDF’s Northern Command OC Maj.-Gen. Uri Gordin told his reservists following a training drill simulating operations deep inside Lebanon.

“We are more prepared than ever…we can [go to war] tonight if needed,” Gordin said. “We struck many terror cells in the North, more than 150 were destroyed and a lot of their capabilities have been taken away.

“We are working to peel away Hezbollah’s capabilities and pushing it as far back as possible. There is much more to do in order to bring the desired result of improved security, to return northern Israeli residents to their homes.”

end

LEBANON/ISRAEL/GAZA

(TIMES OF ISRAEL)

50 rockets fired at south Israel, largest barrage in weeks; 2 more soldiers killed

Sgt. First Class (res.) Nitzan Schessler slain in southern Strip, Sgt. Maj. (res.) Noam Ashram succumbs to wounds sustained in central Gaza, taking IDF ground offensive toll to 190

image.png

The scene of a rocket impact in the southern city of Netivot, following a barrage fired from the Gaza Strip, January 16, 2024. (Fire and Rescue Services)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/50-rockets-fired-at-south-israel-largest-barrage-in-weeks-2-more-soldiers-killed/

END

USA//IRAQ/IRANIAN BACKED MILITANTS

When will Bird-brain Biden attack Iranian assets in Iran?

(zerohedge)

/

IRGC attack US consulate in Iraq as tensions between the US and Iran escalate

Several civilians are believed to have died in the attack, with Kurdish regional government officials announcing the death of a prominent businessman and four of his family members.

By YUVAL BARNEAJANUARY 15, 2024 23:46Updated: JANUARY 16, 2024 01:10

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Funeral of members of Iran's IRGC who were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Syria, in Tehran (photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)Funeral of members of Iran’s IRGC who were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Syria, in Tehran(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

The American consulate in Erbil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq was attacked Monday evening by drones belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), according to a report on Al Jazeera.

The IRGC took responsibility for the attack in northern Iraq announcing that they had attacked an “intelligence headquarters and gathering place of anti-Iranian terrorist organizations in response to the latest terrorist crimes against Iran’s enemies.”

The IRGC claimed that it had targeted “three Mossad bases” in the region, despite the fact that the Kurdistan Regional Government had rejected the presence of Israeli intelligence in Iraqi Kurdistan in December. Kurdish officers attend a distribution ceremony of military aid by U.S. Army to the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, in Erbil, Iraq November 10, 2020. (credit: REUTERS/AZAD LASHKARI)Enlrage imageKurdish officers attend a distribution ceremony of military aid by U.S. Army to the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, in Erbil, Iraq November 10, 2020. (credit: REUTERS/AZAD LASHKARI)

US officials told Reuters that the attacks had not damaged US facilities and there were no US casualties, they declined to provide further comment.

Several civilians are believed to have died in the attack, with Kurdish regional government officials announcing the death of a prominent businessman and four of his family members.

Rising tensions in Iraq

Tensions have been rising in Iraq as Iran seeks to increase pressure on Israel and the United States, these attacks come less than a week after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani signaled that he wanted the quick withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

However, privately Sudani has sent mixed signals, as POLITICO reported that he had told US officials in private that his statement was “an attempt to satisfy domestic political audiences” and that he “remained committed” to negotiating the US’s future presence in Iraq.

American and British airstrikes in Yemen have been linked to the bombardment of the US base in Iraq, with claims that attacks on Yemen make the American and British forces in the region “legitimate targets“, according to Fars News.

Western airstrikes in Yemen have been targeting the Houthis radar and air infrastructure to prevent them from attacking ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb to the Red Sea.

The Houthis are part of Iran’s array of allied and aligned militias through which it wages a proxy war against the United States and Israel.

end

Iran/West


Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles Against Foreign ‘Espionage Centers’ In Iraq’s Erbil

MONDAY, JAN 15, 2024 – 06:08 PM

Multiple large explosions have been reported overnight (local) near the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq, in what appears to be a major escalation from Iran.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has already taken responsibility for the attack against what a statement dubbed foreign “espionage centers” and “anti-Iranian terrorist gatherings in parts of the region” with ballistic missiles.

ABC News is reporting that four people were killed in the fresh missile attack, however, no Americans have been hurt. US officials have told regional media that no American facilities were impacted by the missile strikes in Erbil, even though many initial reports said it took place near the vicinity of the US consulate.

Very close in time to this attack, possibly within as little as five minutes of the Erbil incident, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran-linked targets outside Aleppo International Airport in northern Syria.

One regional correspondent, Joyce Karam, pointed out that Monday has been an exceptional day in terms of the number of hugely escalatory events close in time. She wrote that the “Middle East is imploding, in one day”…which has included the following: 

  • Attack on US ship by Yemen Houthis
  • US intercepting 2nd attack in Red Sea
  • Israel strikes in Gaza [and Syria]
  • Stabbing & car ramming near Tel Aviv IRGC attack in Iraq
  • IRGC attack in Syria

As for the IRGC action in Syria, a statement said it targeted an ISIS site, in retaliation for the twin suicide bombings in Kerman city in southeast Iran on Jan.3. ISIS had taken responsibility for the attack which killed over 100 people who were attending memorial events commemorating the death of Qassem Soleimani.

The IRGC statements made so far include acknowledgement of the following military actions Monday (some of which occurred in the overnight hours Tuesday, local time):

  • Attack on anti-Iranian terrorist sites (i.e. US military sites) in Iraq’s Erbil
  • Attack on ISIS terrorist sites inside Syria
  • Attack on Mossad HQ in Kurdistan, Iraq

According to more details in Reuters from Iran’s attack on northern Iraq: “Explosions were heard in an area some 40 kilometers northeast of Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, three security sources said, in an area near the U.S. consulate as well as civilian residences.”

All of this is spillover from the Gaza War, as things continue to slide into a possible broader regional conflagration. 

More video from the Erbil attack, however which remains unverified…

end

USA/Yemen/Iran

(Jerusalem Post)

US seizes advanced Iranian weapons en route to Yemen’s Houthis – CENTCOM

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSJANUARY 16, 2024 13:16Updated: JANUARY 16, 2024 13:23

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The United States Central Command Seized advanced Iranian weaponry bound for the Houthi rebels in Yemen on January 11, CENTCOM said Tuesday.

It was the first seizure of “lethal Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons” to the Houthis since Houthi attacks against merchant ships began in November, the statement added.

This is a developing story.

end

Empty Malta-flagged bulk carrier hit by missile off Yemen

By REUTERSJANUARY 16, 2024 15:35

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An empty Malta-flagged bulk carrier was hit by a missile while heading north through the Red Sea, 76 nautical miles northwest of the Yemeni port of Saleef, a security firm and two Greek shipping ministry sources said on Tuesday.

The Greek-owned vessel, the Zografia, was sailing from Vietnam to Israel with 24 crew on board and was empty of cargo when attacked, one of the Greek sources said.

“There were no injuries, only material damage,” the source added.

The British maritime security firm Ambrey had mentioned the attack in an advisory note earlier on Tuesday. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) surveillance hub also said it had received a report of an incident about 100 nautical miles northwest of Saleef.

The Iran-aligned Houthi group has threatened to expand the range of targets of its attacks in the Red Sea – which it says are a response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza – to include US ships in response to American and British strikes on its sites in Yemen.

end

Lt Richard Hecht

.END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

FDA Launches Fresh Bid To Toss Out High-Profile Ivermectin Case

MONDAY, JAN 15, 2024 – 04:35 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is seeking to persuade a federal court to dismiss a lawsuit challenging its repeated advisories against using ivermectin to treat COVID-19.

The FDA in a sealed motion asked the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas to dismiss the suit, which was brought by three doctors who allege the FDA’s warnings were illegal.

The late 2023 motion was sealed because exhibits the government cited “include confidential information” from a separate legal proceeding, according to a government brief.

Government lawyers said they would file redacted versions of the motion for public perusal but still have not done so.

Attorneys for the doctors said on Jan. 12 that the court should reject the government’s fresh bid to throw out the case.

“The FDA exceeded its authority by repeatedly issuing public directives not to use ivermectin for COVID-19, even though the drug remains fully approved for human use,” they wrote.

One of the directives said: “You are not a horse. Stop it with the #Ivermectin. It’s not authorized for treating #COVID.”

The government motion came after an appeals court found the FDA likely overstepped its authority with the warnings.

“FDA can inform, but it has identified no authority allowing it to recommend consumers ’stop’ taking medicine,”  U.S. Circuit Judge Don Willett, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, wrote in the ruling.

The appeals court remanded the case back to U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown, who said in 2022 that the doctors failed to prove their allegations.

The FDA in the sealed motion asked Judge Brown, another appointee of President Trump, to dismiss the case.

According to lawyers for the doctors, the FDA’s motion includes arguments that claim the plaintiffs have not suffered injuries that are traceable to the FDA, and that cannot be remedied by a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs.

“The FDA is wrong,” the lawyers said. “Plaintiffs have suffered interference with their practice of medicine and the doctor-patient relationship, economic harm, reputational harm, and increased exposure to malpractice liability, and have been subject to disciplinary proceedings and forced resignations, all of which clearly trace to the FDA’s campaign against ivermectin and would be remedied by equitable relief.”

The Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act enables the FDA to authorize or approve drugs for a specific use but doctors are free to prescribe cleared drugs for other purposes, in what’s known as “off-label” prescribing. The law does not grant authority to the FDA to regulate off-label use.

The plaintiffs include Dr. Robert Apter, who was investigated by medical boards in two states for prescribing ivermectin to treat COVID-19. The referrals to the boards include some of the FDA’s warnings against using the drug as a COVID-19 treatment.

The FDA’s position in seeking a dismissal stems in part from the negative actions against the plaintiffs being taken by third parties such as pharmacies, according to a description of the sealed motion. It was quoted as saying that the referrals “are not fairly traceable” to the FDA’s statements.

An exhibit included by the FDA, however, showed one of the referrals came from a pharmacist who cited FDA documents as a reason for “increased scrutiny” with regard to ivermectin prescriptions. The pharmacist wrote that Dr. Apter would not provide a “valid medical reason” for the ivermectin prescription and was thus engaging in “inappropriate prescribing.”

“The FDA is the common thread through all of [the] plaintiffs’ injuries, which began only after the FDA embarked on its campaign to stop the use of ivermectin for COVID-19 and which often involve explicit invocation of the FDA’s directives and recommendations,” the plaintiffs’ lawyers said.

They are seeking an order that would force the FDA to rescind or amend its warnings. That would remove the justification of the parties that have taken negative actions against the plaintiffs, the lawyers added.

END

OTHER MEDICAL VACCINE INJURY/CANCER REPORTS

end

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Gonzalo Lira’s torturers were allegedly trying to extort $500,000 from him, and killed him after he told his lawyer. (The US embassy was trying to deal with it.)

From Alina Lipp, reporting these latest revelations, or claims, on Telegram

MARK CRISPIN MILLERJAN 16
 
READ IN APP
 

This a friend’s translation of Alina Lipp’s recent Telegram on the murder of Gonzalo Lira. (The German text is below.)

Outrageous facts have come to light about the murder of journalist Gonzalo Lira: The American, who was tortured to death in SIZO, a Kiev pre-trial detention center in a special wing controlled by the SBU, was the victim of extortionists. SIZO employees and an SBU agent extorted $250,000 from Gonzalo for a change of preventive treatment. The vice-consul of the US embassy, who dealt with the problems of Lira, knew about the blackmail and twice wrote a statement to the SBU and the OP. As a result, the extortionists began demanding $500,000 for Lira’s transfer at his own expense.

The money was to be transferred in cryptocurrency to the SBU agent’s bank.

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

BREAKING: Now this is what a real CONVOY looks like, note to Canada, USA? In Berlin: Thousands and thousands of farmers, truckers and other hard working citizens took to the streets of Berlin today

to remind their government and the globalists of one simple thing: “We are The People and we are taking back control.” just the beginning; update, Trudeau willing to send horses to TRAMPLE truckers

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 15
 
READ IN APP
 

https://twitter.com/EvaVlaar/status/1746904989719552510

https://twitter.com/EvaVlaar/status/1746904989719552510

https://twitter.com/EvaVlaar/status/1746904989719552510

END

SLAY NEWS

———- Forwarded message ———
From: Slay News<mail@slaynews.com>
Date: Mon, Jan 15, 2024 at 5:23 PM
Subject: 🚨 WEF Advisor Warns Trump’s Reelection Will Be ‘Death Blow’ to Globalism
To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>

The latest reports from Slay NewsWEF Advisor Warns Trump’s Reelection Will Be ‘Death Blow’ to GlobalismOne of the masterminds behind the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) agenda has issued a warning about the “very likely” possibility that President Donald Trump wins reelection this year.READ MOREFauci Admits Social Distancing Rules Had No Scientific BasisDr. Anthony Fauci has admitted during testimony before a congressional hearing that the social distancing rules he promoted during the Covid pandemic had no scientific basis.READ MORERadical Climate Activist Calls on Terrorists to ‘Save the Planet’ by Blowing up PipelinesA far-left climate activist is calling for green agenda terrorists to take extreme action to “save the planet” by blowing up gas and oil pipelines.READ MORELA Times Endorses ‘Team Player’ Adam Schiff for Senate: ‘The Natural Choice’The Los Angeles Times editorial board has just issued a glowing endorsement for Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-CA) Senate campaign.READ MOREJudge Cannon Denies Jack Smith’s Motion to Force Disclosure of Trump’s Defense Argument PlansSpecial Counsel Jack Smith has just failed in his effort to force President Donald Trump to disclose a particular defense argument he might raise during the eventual trial.READ MOREMarjorie Taylor Greene Threatens to Oust Speaker JohnsonRepublican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is threatening to have House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) removed from his powerful leadership position. READ MOREJohn Kerry Resigns as Biden’s ‘Climate Czar’John Kerry is resigning from his role as Democrat President Joe Biden’s so-called “climate czar.” READ MORENBC News: ‘Deep State’ Plotting ‘Military Coup’ against Trump over ‘Retribution’ FearsAmerica’s political Left and the bureaucratic “deep state” are already plotting to launch a “military cop” against President Donald Trump over fears he will seek “retribution” when reelected, according to a new report from NBC News.READ MOREMassive Biden Admin Walkout Planned over Israel PolicyDemocrat President Joe Biden’s White House is facing chaos this week as “hundreds” of administration staffers are planning to walk off the job on Tuesday.READ MOREMajor Green Energy Project Was Dependent on Biden Waiving Taxpayer Safeguards, Internal Docs ShowA green energy project was not financially viable until Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration intervened and removed safeguards designed to protect taxpayers, according to newly emerged internal documents.READ MOREIran Close to Producing Atomic Bomb as Biden’s ‘De-Escalation’ Strategy BackfiresTop Iran experts are warning that the Islamic Iranian regime is now close to producing an atomic bomb.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

Airlines to Hire People with ‘Severe Mental Disabilities’ to Manage Safety to Comply with Woke DEI QuotasREAD MORE… 
LATEST NEWS:
Bill Gates ‘Hopes’ Humans Will Be ‘Controlled’ by AIRead more…FAA’s diversity push includes focus on hiring people with ‘severe intellectual’ and ‘psychiatric’ disabilitiesRead more…Joe Manchin Gives Answer On Potential White House Bid After Months Of SpeculationRead more…Yemen Houthi rebels fire missile at US warship in Red Sea in first attack after American-led strikesRead more…Supreme Court poised to end ‘constitutional revolution’ that’s marred…Read more…Ashli Babbitt’s Shooter Michael Byrd Made a False Radio Call Shortly After Fatal IncidentRead more…CIA Being Sued for Hiding COVID Pandemic RecordsRead more…A Deep State Cabal is Already Preparing for ‘Worst-Case Scenario’ of Trump Being Re-electedRead more…

WHO Demands Global Meat Consumption Ban by 2025

The World Health Organization (WEF) has just upped the ante with its globalist “Net Zero” agenda by demanding that the general public must be banned from consuming meat and dairy products by 2025 globally.
READ THE FULL REPORT

WEF Warns Globalists: Trump Will Destroy ‘the Global Order’

A top World Economic Forum (WEF) official has raised the alarm among globalists about the “very likely” chance that President Donald Trump will win reelection this year.
READ THE FULL REPORT

NEWS ADDICT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
Bill Gates ‘Hopes’ Humans Will Be ‘Controlled’ by AIBill Gates has revealed that he “hopes” artificial intelligence (AI) will soon “dominate” and “control” the human race.READ THE FULL REPORT
Airlines to Hire People with ‘Severe Mental Disabilities’ to Manage Safety to Comply with Woke DEI QuotasPeople with “severe mental disabilities” are being hired to manage air travel safety in order for airlines to meet woke diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) quotas.READ THE FULL REPORT
Pro-Palestine Heckler Disrupts Gov. Abbott’s Speech — Finds Out How Texas Deals with ThatA pro-Palestine heckler was given a nasty wake-up call while attempting to disrupt Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s address in Collin County, Texas on Saturday.READ THE FULL REPORT
Deep State Cabal Is Already Preparing for ‘Worst-Case Scenario’ of Trump Being Re-electedIn the aftermath of the highly contested 2020 election, America’s political elites revealed in striking fashion how a shadow campaign had worked to thwart Donald Trump from becoming president again.READ THE FULL REPORT
Fani Willis Responds to Bombshell Report She Gave Special Prosecutor Job to Her LoverFulton County District Attorney Fani Wilis has found herself in hot water among serious ethical questions regarding her handling of the Trump “racketeering” case in connection to his legal challenges of the 2020 election.READ THE FULL REPORT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE

Biden, the Magnificent, continues with his crazy policy of appeasement. Now Shell suspends Red Sea shipments after two fresh Houthi attacks on tankers

(zerohedge)

Shell Becomes Latest To Suspend Red Sea Shipments After Two Fresh Houthi Attacks On Tankers

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 09:40 AM

There have been several fresh incidents in the Red Sea, including a Greek-owned tanker coming attack off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday. It comes amid a string of similar attacks, causing Shell to be the latest to suspend all Red Sea shipments, according to breaking news in the WSJ. 

“British oil major Shell PLC suspended all shipments through the Red Sea indefinitely after U.S. and U.K. strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels triggered fears of further escalation, according to people familiar with the decision,” the publication writes. WSJ continues, “Around 12% of total global seaborne oil trade goes through the Red Sea.” According to more:

Last month, a tanker chartered by Shell to move Indian jet fuel was targeted by a drone in the Red Sea and harassed by Houthi boats, according to shipping officials. Shell declined to comment on the suspension of transit and the attack.

But the company last week took the step to halt all crossings over concerns that a successful attack could trigger a massive spill in the region, as well as present risks to the safety of crews on the ships, the people said.

On Tuesday, British maritime security firm Ambrey has identified that the Zografia, a Malta-flagged Greek-owned bulk carrier, has suffered direct hit by a missile while going northbound in the Red Sea, near the Yemeni port city of Saleef.Zografia, bulk carrier, via MarineTraffic.com

The damage to the Zografia is being described in Reuters minor with no injuries reported among24-member crew. But there’s additionally already a second incident unfolding, also within 100 nautical miles of Saleef. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it received a report of an incident, but the details of which have not been forthcoming. Based on the pattern, the second incident may involve a missile or possibly drone strike.

Clearly, the Houthis are not fearing the West’s punitive strikes. Days ago The New York Times acknowledged that the US and UK-led attacks are likely to have little impact on Houthi decision-making: 

Strikes are therefore “extremely unlikely” to stop the group’s Red Sea attacks, [Hannah Porter, a senior research officer at ARK Group] said.

“The Houthis are very comfortable operating in a wartime environment,” she  said. “They are more successful as a military group than they are as a government.”

The strikes could also help the Houthis with domestic politics, providing “another ‘foreign enemy’ pretext to distract the public from their failing rebel governance that does not deliver services,” said Ibrahim Jalal, a Yemeni nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based research organization.

Some American allies in the region, including Qatar and Oman, had privately warned the United States that bombing the Houthis would only deepen regional tensions.

Meanwhile US Central Command has continued upping its counter-Iran operations in regional waters, also as Tehran is believed to be supplying the Yemeni rebel group with weapons.

In a fresh statement, CENTCOM has announced, “On 11 January 2024, while conducting a flag verification, U.S. CENTCOM Navy forces conducted a night-time seizure of a dhow conducting illegal transport of advanced lethal aid from Iran to resupply Houthi forces in Yemen as part of the Houthis’ ongoing campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping.” So Iranian weapons are continuing to be shipped to the Houthis of Yemen, and thus it looks like Operation Prosperity Guardian is having no significant deterrent impact.

end

IRAN/SOMALIA/USA

Missing Seals Were On Secret Mission That Intercepted Iranian Missile Components Bound For Houthis

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 02:40 PM

The Pentagon on Tuesday revealed more information about the two missing US Navy Seals, who disappeared off the cost of Somalia in the Gulf of Aden on Thursday after they “fell into the water during a nighttime boarding mission” according to US military officials.

A search and rescue operation has continued, and the US Department of Defense has yet to formally declare them dead. The US has revealed additional information about their secretive mission, saying their team intercepted a shipment of Iranian missile components bound for Houthis in Yemen. 

The nighttime raid was conducted against a dhow, or a small sailing boat, which was found to have contained several advanced weapons components on board, according to the new press release by CENTCOM. 

The Seal team was “supported by helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)” and “executed a complex boarding of the dhow near the coast of Somalia in international waters of the Arabian Sea.”

The military says that Iranian-made ballistic missile and cruise missiles components were seized from the vessel, and included “warheads for Houthi medium range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs).”

“It is clear that Iran continues shipment of advanced lethal aid to the Houthis. This is yet another example of how Iran actively sows instability throughout the region,” CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla said.

He further detailed the following:

This is the first seizure of lethal, Iranian-supplied advanced conventional weapons (ACW) to the Houthis since the beginning of Houthi attacks against merchant ships in November 2023. The interdiction also constitutes the first seizure of advanced Iranian-manufactured ballistic missile and cruise missile components by the U.S. Navy since November 2019.

But importantly, the new statement also confirmed that the two Seals now lost at sea had been directly involved in his operation. “We are conducting an exhaustive search for our missing teammates,” the CENTCOM statement emphasized.

The Seal boat had reportedly been headed toward a suspicious vessel off the Somali coast when the elite operators went overboard when a large wave crashed into them. One Seal fell into the sea, and the second reportedly went in while trying to rescue him. Locating them was complicated because it happened in the darkness of night in a vast ocean.

When the incident was initially reported over the weekend, most news reports assumed or strongly suggested it may have been related to stopping Somali piracy. It was at first only reported that the vessel was deemed “suspicious” by the US Navy and so was approached by the Seal team.

Meanwhile, there have since been reported more strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen by the Western coalition which is patrolling the Red Sea.

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA 

Robert H

The USA has already signalled that they will cut.  Canada may have no choice

REUTERS: Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut

“The Canadian dollar’s decline slowed following the inflation figures. It was last 0.2% down on the day at 1.3455 per U.S. dollar.”

No rate cuts as it would further erode value 

Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose as expected to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November, data showed on Tuesday, a sign of sticky inflation ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.

Read in Reuters: https://apple.news/ARad7EL3jRgeycRgihFFEIw

REUTERS: Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0885 DOWN  .0059 

USA/ YEN 146.70 UP 0.907  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2645 DOWN  .0071

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3478 UP .0043 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 43 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.70 PTS OR  0.27%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 350.91 PTS OR 2.16% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.07%   // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:    ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 350.91 PTS OR 2.16%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.20 PTS OR 0.27%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.07% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 282.61 OR 0.79% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2037.55

silver:$23.03

USA dollar index early TUESDAY  morning: 102.93  UP 78 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.985%  UP 5  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.592% UP 3 AND  0//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.170 UP 3  in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.819 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2221  UP 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0869 DOWN  0.0065 or 65  basis points

USA/Japan: 147/05 UP 1.250 OR YEN DOWN 125 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2644 DOWN .0071  OR 71  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0046 OR 46 BASIS pts  to 1.3482

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (DOWN) …7.1911

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2187)

TURKISH LIRA:  30.11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.592…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 in basis points from FRIDAY at  4.036% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.261 UP 6  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.173  UP 4 BASIS PTS.

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 36.57 PTS OR .48%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 50.54 PTS OR 0.30%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 13.68 PTS OR 0.18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 82.80 PTS OR 0.82%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 9.90 PTS OR 0.03%

WTI Oil price  72.04   12: EST

Brent Oil:  77/95  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  87.85;   ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  25//100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2210 UP 3  BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8335 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0873  DOWN .0072   0.0072   OR 72 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2633 DOWN .0083   or 83 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.859%  UP 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.589%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147,24 UP 1.451//YEN DOWN 145  BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3498 UP 0.0063 CDN dollar DOWN 63   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 72.23

Brent OIL:  78.08

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 11  BASIS pts to 4.068%  

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS PTS to 4.305%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT  4.206%

USA dollar index: 103.11 UP 96  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.10 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  87.85 DOWN 0  AND  25/100 roubles

GOLD  2029.10 3:30 PM

SILVER: 22.94 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 231.99 PTS OR 0.02%

NASDAQ DOWN 2.21 PTS OR 0.01%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.92 UP .67 PTS 5.06%

GLD: $187.91 DOWN 180 OR 0.95%

SLV/ $20.91 DOWN .03 OR 1.09%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks, Bonds, Oil, & Gold All Down As Waller Wrecks Rate-Cut Party

BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Comments by Governor Waller in a speech and discussion today raised the risk that the first cut could come slightly later than the market’s expectation of March and that the pace of cuts could be quarterly from the outset, rather than the market’s more aggressive forecast of three initial consecutive cuts followed by a switch to a quarterly pace.

On the timing of the first cut, Waller said he believes that the FOMC will be able to lower the funds rate “this year.”

On the speed of cuts, Waller said the funds rate “can and should be lowered methodically and carefully” and that he sees “no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” when the FOMC was combating recessions.

Waller also noted that next month’s scheduled revisions to CPI inflation (the seasonal factors will be revised on February 9) could influence his thinking on rates cuts, especially if the revised data show a less clear deceleration recently.

The result was most evident in the drop in the market’s expectations for a rate-cut in March…

Source: Bloomberg

…and expectations for 2024 rate-cuts declined also…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher across the curve with the long-end underperforming (from Friday’s close)…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the 10Y yield’s highest close since the Dec FOMC meeting (back above 4.00%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Financial conditions have eased back again from their tightening bias to start the year and remain near their loosest since August 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks did not like Waller’s comments at all but while yields were higher, the growthy/long-duration tech stocks actually outperformed (ending red despite a late-day panic-bid algo ramp try to get green) while Small Caps were the most punished…

MAG7 stocks drifted modestly lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks continued the trend lower in 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied back above $43,000 today, but well off the pre-ETF highs…

Source: Bloomberg

With ETF aggregate volumes still concentrated in IBIT and FBTC…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ripped higher today, almost entirely erasing the post-FOMC drop……

Source: Bloomberg

And as the dollar rallied, gold tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil edged lower on a choppy day – despite the shitshow in the Red Sea getting considerably worse…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, EMFX was pummeled, with MXN puking over 2% (after Trump’s big win last night?)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and given that move, it is worth considering how the election could impact markets.

Trump’s odds of winning the election are now at the highest, and 3 ppts above Biden…

Source: Bloomberg

As Goldman notes, on balance, a Republican ‘sweep’ looks likely to increase the chances of a stronger USD, higher breakeven inflation rates, higher yields, and a steeper yield curve. It may also increase the tails in both directions for energy prices.

But, as the charts above show, there was little direct impact on macro markets until the Fall.

END

MORNING  TRADING//

end

AFTERNOON TRADING

II USA DATA

New York Mfg Empire index suffers his biggest 2 month collapse

(zerohedge)

Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Suffers Biggest 2-Month Collapse (Ex-COVID) In History

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 08:44 AM

Well, no one saw that coming…

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January crashed from -14.5 to -43.7 – the worst print in the survey’s history outside of the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

The -43.7 print was a stunning 10 standard deviations below expectations of a bounce to -5.0…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was a bloodbath. New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments dropped by the most since August. Worse still, the index of prices paid for materials increased to a three-month high.

But hope remains high as the six-month outlook for overall activity improved to a three-month high, suggesting manufacturing will stabilize at a weak level. The measure of the outlook for capital expenditures increased to the highest since April 2023, suggesting a pickup in investment.

However, the spread between current reality and a hopeful future is at near record highs (record Ex-COVID-lockdowns)…

“Bidenomics” for the win…

END

III  USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

This is the most important commentary this decade.  Wall Street Journalist Nick Timiraos, the whisperer of the Fed has just confirmed that QT will end and QE will begin.  This means that gold and silver prices will escalate.  Long term bond yields will rise.  Asset prices for goods will rise.  Short term interest rates will initially fall but the market may not let it fall to low. This will be the beginning of hyperinflation as the Fed can no longer control inflation. Ignore Waller today: he is totally forgetting about his reverse repo mess coming in March.

(zerohedge)

“It’s All Over”: Powell’s WSJ Mouthpiece And JPMorgan Confirm Imminent End Of QT

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 06:11 AM

On December 13 the financial world was stunned when, just two weeks after Jerome Powell had said he it was “premature” to speculate on rate cuts, the Federal Reserve did a shocking U-turn and pivoted dovishly, ending the Fed’s hiking cycle with inflation still running at double the Fed’s target of 2%, and said that it had in fact discussed the start of rate cuts, contrary to what Powell said just two weeks earlier.

Or rather, we should say “the financial world that had not read Zero Hedge was stunned” because just one week ahead of the Fed’s December FOMC meeting, we correctly predicted the Fed’s pivot due to one simple reason: as we laid out in “The Canary Just Died: Sudden Spike In SOFR Hints At Mounting Reserve Shortage, Early Restart Of QE“, the Fed no longer had a choice and was forced to pursue a dovish pivot because the liquidity in the all-important systemic and interbank plumbing had hit dangerously low levels, resulting in the highest SOFR print on record, and the biggest spike since the last time there was a repo market crisis in March 2020.

As we said at the time, “the spike caught almost everyone by surprise, even such Fed-watching luminaries as BofA’s Marc Cabana because it was with “no new UST settlements, lower repo volumes, and lower sponsored bi-lateral volumes.”  And yet, the spike was clearly there and ominously it was consistent “with the slow theme of less cash & more collateral in the system” – i.e., growing reserve scarcity –  and “may have been exacerbated by elevated dealer inventories, bi-lateral borrowing need, and limited excess cash to backstop repo.”

And the punchline: “If funding pressure persists, it risks Fed re-assessment of ample banking system reserves & potential early end to QT“, and depending on how bad the funding shortage gets, an early restart of QE.

One week later, the Fed capitulated on tight monetary policy and ushered in the era of rate cuts, just as we said it would. But more importantly, one month later it was Dallas Fed president (and former head of the NY Fed’s plunge protection team) Lorie Logan who said the quiet part out loud when she confirmed our “canary in the coalmine” note, namely that the Fed’s QT is effectively over due to the sudden, unexpected slide in systemic liquidity, primarily due to the rapid drain in the reverse repo facility which now has just $600 million left and is set to be fully drained some time in March…

… and that by extension, another round of QE may be on deck.

Of course, it’s one thing for a regional Fed president to opine on such things, it’s something entirely different for Powell’s preferred media leak conduit to confirm it, and yet this morning that’s precisely what happened when Nick Timiraos, aka Nikileaks, aka Powell’s favorite media mouthpiece confirmed that QT’s days are now numbered writing that “Fed officials are to start deliberations on slowing, though not ending, that so-called quantitative tightening as soon as their policy meeting this month. It could have important implications for financial markets.“

If that wasn’t enough, Nikileaks also confirms our suspicion about the driver behind said QT runoff: the financial plumbing is starting to clog up:

But whereas the Fed expects to cut short-term interest rates this year because inflation has fallen, its rationale for tapering bond runoff is different: to prevent disruption to an obscure yet critical corner of the financial markets.

Five years ago, balance-sheet runoff sparked upheaval in those markets, forcing a messy U-turn. Officials are determined not to do that again.

Several officials at the Fed’s policy meeting last month suggested beginning formal conversations soon, so as to communicate their plans to the public well before any changes take effect, according to minutes of the meeting. Officials have indicated that changes aren’t imminent and that they are focusing on slowing—not ending—the program.

As we first explained almost two months ago, the reason for the Fed’s panic is that the central bank wants to avoid the same repo market cataclysm that market both the liquidity drain in Sept 2019 and the violent eruption in basis trades that sparked bond market contagion in March 2020; here is Timiraos confirming as much:

… in September 2019, a sharp, unexpected spike in a key overnight lending rate suggested reserves had windled to the point they were either too scarce or difficult to redistribute across the financial system. The Fed began buying Treasury bills to add reserves back to the system and avoid further instability.

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic created a huge dash for dollars. To prevent markets from seizing up, the Fed resumed buying huge quantities of securities. It stopped buying in March 2022 and three months later set the process into reverse, once again shrinking the portfolio.

… which brings us to today, when the Fed did the math and realized that doing $60BN in QT per month once the reverse repo is fully drained will crash the market:

Policymakers have several reasons to consider slowing runoff. First, the Fed is shrinking its Treasury holdings by $60 billion a month—twice as fast it did five years ago. Continuing to run at this rate raises the risk that the Fed drains reserves so quickly that money-market rates jump as banks struggle to redistribute a dwindling supply of reserves.

Slowing the pace of the runoff later this year might allow the Fed to continue the program for longer than otherwise by “reducing the likelihood that we’d have to stop prematurely,” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in a recent speech.

And by “stop prematurely” she of course means suffering a market crash in an election year, one which would drag the economy into a recession in days. And we all know by now (thanks to former NY president Bill Dudley) that is unacceptable, especially when the alternative is a Trump presidency.

Timiraos also confirms that we were right in cautioning that it’s all about the accelerating rate of decline in the reverse repo facility (see “How Treasury Averted A Bond Market “Earthquake” In The Last Second: What Everyone Missed In The TBAC’s Remarkable Refunding Presentation“):

there are signs that the cash surplus in money markets is rapidly diminishing. The Fed allows money-market firms and others to park extra cash that would otherwise end up in reserves in an overnight reverse repurchase facility. The facility has shrunk by around $1 trillion since late August to around $680 billion. Logan endorsed slowing runoff once that facility is nearly drained of cash because, after that, forecasting demand for bank reserves will be more uncertain.

This “faster-than-expected decline” in the overnight reverse repurchase facility’s balances is spurring the Fed’s movement toward contingency planning around how to slow runoff:

“It has been a surprise to everyone that overnight reverse repurchase balances have fallen this quickly and that reserves have actually increased over this period,” said Brian Sack, who managed the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team at the New York Fed from 2009 to 2012.

Actually Brian, you and others may have been surprised, but it certainly wasn’t “everyone”: we’ve been warning this would happen since the start of the year, and most recently one week before the Fed’s pivot.

There is another reason why the December SOFR spike freaked out the Fed: whereas previously the central bank was wrong repeatedly in estimating what level of reserves would be seen as “ample” by the market, this time around, officials told TImiraos they are going to rely more on market signals in identifying the right level of reserves.

“Last time, we had lots of estimates of where we thought that terminal level of reserves was, and our estimates were too low,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in an October interview. “At the end of the day, the market will dictate where we are.”

Indeed it will, and that’s precisely why our premium subscribers were fully aware that the “canary in the liquidity coalmine” died at the start of December, and the Fed’s dovish pivot, the end of QT, and the coming QE are now logically following just as we said they would.

And just in case Timiraos’ conveying Powell’s message that QT is effectively done wasn’t enough, here is JPM’s head of fixed income strategy with a note overnight admitting the same

This is how JPM sees the wind down of QT: “We now expect that the FOMC will have the outline of a timeline at the January meeting, communicated mid-February minutes to that meeting. We expect that this plan will be formally agreed to at the mid-March meeting and will be implemented beginning in April” at which point the monthly cap on the runoff of Treasury securities to be reduced to $30bn/mo, from $60bn/mo (full note available to professional subscribers in the usual place).

Bottom line: after several years of tightening, 2024 is when the liquidity floodgate reopen and not only does the Fed start to cut rates aggressively, but with QT tapering, we fully expect the next QE to be launched in the near future, sending the dollar into its next, and possibly final, reserve currency death spiral as printer goes BRRRR.

END

Trump Gives Speech After Winning Iowa Caucus; Ramaswamy To End Campaign

MONDAY, JAN 15, 2024 – 08:48 PM

Update (2323ET): As predicted, Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the Iowa Caucus by the Associated Press. Trump beat both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley by nearly 30 points and 40 points respectively, in line with the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll.

Trump won every county counted.

According to Bloomberg, Vivek Ramaswamy is ending his 2024 campaign and endorsed Trump.

Trump, likely after finding out that Ramaswamy wouldn’t continue, credited Vivek for doing a ‘hell of a job.’

Here’s what an aggregate of popular betting markets think right now:

Now all the Republicans need to do is ensure it’s a fair election. Hilarious.

*  *  *

In chilly Iowa, Republican candidates are making their final appeals before gathering for a 7 p.m. Caucus – during which party members will plead their case for various candidates they would like to see on the ballot. All times mentioned are local.

Voters eager to participate in the caucus are expected to face temperatures of -2 degrees, and 35 degrees below zero with wind chill factor, which would break the state’s 1972 record for coldest caucus day by a longshot, per the Des Moines Register.

Donald Trump – the party’s clear frontrunner by a wide margin, plans to call caucus captains throughout the day, and will release a video message for supporters.

The former president canceled in-person rallies scheduled over the weekend due to sever weather, but will hold a watch party at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines.

Did we mention the wide margin? The former president is also way ahead in endorsements by fellow Republicans.

Trump has the backing of well over 100 GOP governors and members of Congress — including more than 20 U.S. senators and top House members like Speaker Mike Johnson — outpacing his rivals for the party’s nomination in all of those categories. On Sunday he added more: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. –NPR

Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will hold three campaign events today – stopping in Sergeant Bluff, Council Bluffs, and Cedar Rapids.

He will also attend an evening caucus before proceeding to his campaign watch party in West Des Moines, the Epoch Times reports.

DeSantis has the backing of key Iowans, including the state’s GOP governor, Kim Reynolds. He is also endorsed by Iowa evangelical leader, Bob Vander Platts.

Nimrata ‘Nikki’ Haley will appear at a tele-town hall at 5 p.m., while her watch party will be held at 8 p.m. in West Des Moines.

Haley, while lacking notable endorsements in Iowa, did pick up a key endorsement from the next state on the primary calendar, New Hampshire, where Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has thrown his support behind her.

Vivek Ramaswamy started the day with a town hall meeting in Urbandale, after which he held a 10:30 a.m. rally in Waterloo. Later, he will appear in Cedar Rapids at 1 p.m., before moving on to the Surety Hotel in Des Moines for a 5 p.m. caucus night party.

Stay tuned for updates…

end

US Consumers Are Engaging In A Historic Debt Binge, And Delinquencies Are Ominously Rising…

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Americans are going into debt as if tomorrow will never come, but of course tomorrow always arrives eventually.  What we are witnessing right now is truly a historic debt binge, and to many of the experts it seems like there is no end in sight to the unrestrained spending that is going on.  But are U.S. consumers going into record levels of debt because they are feeling good about things or because they are trying to survive in an increasingly harsh economic environment?  In America today, the cost of living has become exceedingly oppressive, employers are laying off large numbers of workers, and poverty and homelessness have been absolutely exploding all over the country.  Millions of U.S. households are just barely hanging on by their fingernails, and many desperate consumers have been piling up debt in a frantic attempt to stave off the inevitable.

According to new data that was just released by the Federal Reserve, consumer borrowing increased much faster than expected during the month of December…

US consumers did not rein in their spending this past holiday season, and now have near-record-breaking debt balances to show for it, according to new Federal Reserve data released Monday.

Consumer borrowing spiked by $23.75 billion in November, more than doubling economists’ expectations for a $9 billion increase and sending outstanding credit balances north of the $5 trillion mark for the first time on record, the Fed’s latest Consumer Credit report showed.

The monthly increase during the critical holiday shopping month was driven by higher rates of revolving credit (which includes mostly credit cards), which soared by nearly $19.5 billion — the third-highest monthly increase on records that go back to 1943.

For quite a while, U.S. consumers were able to handle rapidly rising debt levels, but now it appears that we are reaching a breaking point.

In fact, we are being told that “delinquencies are at their highest level since 2012”…

However, the sharp increase in credit balances is starting to be a cause for concern, Ted Rossman, Bankrate senior industry analyst, told CNN via email.

“Credit card usage and Buy Now, Pay Later usage seemingly surged during the holidays, on top of already hefty debt loads,” Rossman said. Now, delinquencies are at their highest level since 2012.

In 2012, we were just coming out of the Great Recession.

Those were very painful days.

And actually the average credit card interest rate is even higher than anything that we witnessed back then…

The average credit card rate is now more than 20%, on average — an all-time high — after rising at the steepest annual pace ever, in step with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle.

“Most cardholders’ rates have risen five-and-a-quarter percentage points during that span as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes meant to combat inflation,” Rossman said. “It’s no wonder, then, that we’re seeing more people carrying more debt for longer periods of time.”

Piling up credit card debt can be fun, but high interest rates will absolutely suffocate you financially for many years to come.

Unfortunately, one recent survey discovered that 56 million cardholders in the United States have been carrying balances “for at least a year”…

Nearly half, or 49%, of credit card holders carry debt from month to month on at least one card, up from 46% last year, the report found, and 56 million cardholders have been in debt for at least a year.

Avoid credit card debt if you can, because it is literally financial poison.

Of course many Americans have no choice.  More than 60 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck, and just trying to pay the bills from month to month is really a struggle for millions upon millions of Americans.

Our leaders insist that they have inflation under control, but we can all see that is not the case.

This week, a restaurant owner that charges 16 dollars for a BLT sandwich made headlines all over the nation, but because of rapidly rising costs he only makes 2 dollars on each sandwich…

A restaurant owner has explained how raging inflation means he has to charge $16 for a BLT sandwich – yet makes under $2 on each.

Brian Will, boss and founder of Central City Tavern sports bar chain, decided to speak out after a pal confronted him over his sandwich prices.

The ingredients – bacon, lettuce, tomato, mayo and bread – cost $5, up more than a dollar since three years ago.

I still remember the days when a trip to the grocery store would cost me about 20 bucks.

Now 20 bucks will buy one sandwich.

Ouch.

Sadly, the economic outlook for the year ahead is not promising at all.

According to Business Insider, economist Cam Harvey is very confident that a recession is coming in 2024…

Cam Harvey, the economist who discovered the Treasury yield curve’s ability to forecast recessions, is reiterating his call that a downturn is likely ahead in 2024.

Harvey’s model says that when yields on 3-month Treasury bills stay higher than those on 10-year notes for at least three months — triggering an official inversion — a recession will follow. The indicator has preceded each of the last eight recessions and has not produced any false positives.

Yields on the two government bond durations have been officially inverted for 12 months now.

I can’t argue with his analysis.

But what we are facing in the long-term is not just another economic downturn.

Ultimately, what we are facing in the long-term is a “perfect storm” that will result in a complete meltdown of our entire system.

The tremendous economic turmoil that we have been experiencing during the Biden administration is just the beginning.

All of the long-term trends are pointing in one direction, and the consequences of decades of very foolish decisions are starting to catch up with us very rapidly.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

END

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

END  

END

SWAMP STORIES

Fani Opens Up: Fulton County DA Says ‘You Cannot Expect Black Women To Be Perfect And Save The World’

MONDAY, JAN 15, 2024 – 08:05 PM

Fulton County, Georgia DA Fani Willis implied she was guilty of something – telling a Sunday congregation at the Big Bethel AME Church ahead of Martin Luther King Jr. Day that “you cannot expect black women to be perfect and save the world,” and that “we need to be allowed to stumble.”Fulton County DA Fani Willis speaks during a worship service at the Big Bethel AME Church on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024 (Miguel Martinez/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP)

Watch:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fani-opens-fulton-county-da-says-you-cannot-expect-black-women-be-perfect-and-save-world

Willis has come under fire for hiring a man named Nathan Wade (without proper approval), a private attorney in the midst of a divorce who “has little to no experience trying felony cases, much less complex RICO actions,” according to a 127-page filing in former President Donald Trump’s 2020 election trial in Georgia.

Wade ended up pocketing nearly $700,000 from Fulton county taxpayers – with which he allegedly took Willis on lavish vacations. He also billed taxpayers $2,000 to talk to the Biden White House about prosecuting Biden’s political opponent.

Allegations surfaced last week from one of Trump’s co-defendants, Mike Roman, a political operative who served as Trump’s director of Election Day operations on his 2020 reelection campaign, who accused Willis and Wade of engaging in an “improper” romantic relationship.

Citing “sources close” to both Willis and Wade, Roman’s lawyer, Ashleigh Merchant, claimed the pair have been involved in an “ongoing, personal and romantic relationship,” and went on vacations together. The filings argued the alleged relationship, which Merchant claims started before the election interference began, makes the indictment “fatally defective” and requests it be dismissed. –The Hill

Willis then played the (double-reverse) race card, saying: “I’m a little confused. I appointed three special counselors. It’s my right to do, paid them all the same hourly rate. They only attack one.”

“I hired one white woman, a good personal friend and a great lawyer, a superstar, I tell you. I hired one white man — brilliant — my friend and a great lawyer. And I hired one Black man, another superstar, a great friend and a great lawyer,” she continued, without referencing Wade by name.

“The Black man I chose has been a judge for more than 10 years, run[s] a private practice more than 20 [years],” said Willis. “Represented businesses in civil litigation … served a prosecutor, a criminal defense lawyer, special assistant attorney general.”

Willis then pretended to talk to God, asking: “God, isn’t it them who’s playing the race card when they only question one?”

“They’re playing the race card when they constantly think I need someone from some other jurisdiction in some other state to tell me how to do a job I’ve [done] almost 30 years.“

Did the other two attorneys she hired take her on lavish vacations?

House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) will get to the bottom of it – after launching an investigation into Wade.

“According to a recent court filing, you have been paid more than $650,000—at the rate of $250 per hour—to serve as an ‘Attorney Consultant’ and later a ‘Special Assistant District Attorney’ in the unprecedented investigation and prosecution of the former President and other former federal officials,” wrote Jordan in a Friday letter reported by Just the News.

“This filing also alleges that while receiving a substantial amount of money from Fulton County, you spent extravagantly on lavish vacations with your boss, Ms. Willis.”

end

What planet is Jack Smith on?

Federal Judge Rejects Jack Smith’’ Request To Force Trump To Reveal Key Strategy

TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 03:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The federal judge overseeing the classified documents case against former President Donald Trump rejected a request from federal special prosecutor Jack Smith to force the former president to reveal a portion of his legal strategy.

Several weeks ago, Mr. Smith’s team attempted to compel the former president to disclose to the prosecutors whether he intends to use an “advice-of-counsel” defense against the charges that he illegally retained and stored classified materials. It’s because, according to the special counsel, President Trump has signaled he wants to state in his case that he was merely following legal advice regarding how to deal with the classified documents post-presidency.

But on Jan. 12, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon issued a paperless order, posted to the docket, that it is too soon to request President Trump’s counsel to tell prosecutors what their plans entail.

“Assuming the facts and circumstances in this case warrant an order compelling disclosure of an advice-of-counsel trial defense, the Court determines that such a request is not amenable to proper consideration at this juncture, prior to at least partial resolution of pre-trial motions, transmission to Defendants of the Special Counsel’s exhibit and witness lists, and other disclosures as may become necessary,” her order stated. “The Special Counsel’s Motion 208 is therefore denied without prejudice.”

Without prejudice means that federal prosecutors can raise the same issue in the future. In his election-related case in Washington, President Trump has been ordered by the federal judge to disclose whether he will rely on advice-of-counsel defense by Monday.

Judge Cannon’s order comes weeks after a November motion filed by the Smith team, who wrote that the former president should disclose part of his legal strategy because, in part, he has “publicly stated he was ‘told’ he had no legal obligation to return classified documents to the Government or presidential records to the National Archives and Records Administration (‘NARA’), thereby indicating a possible defense of good faith reliance on advice of counsel.”

That court filing further alleged that President Trump has stated he is “under no obligation” to hand over classified materials due to “various legal rulings that have been made over the years.”

And it made reference to a Trump post on Truth Social in which he wrote, “My attorneys and representatives were cooperating fully, and very good relationships had been established. The government could have had whatever they wanted, if we had it.”

Other Activity

Also on Friday, Judge Cannon granted the former president a request to file an “oversized consolidated brief” to back up discovery motions in the documents case, according to a post to the docket.

“Defendants may file one consolidated classified brief and one consolidated unclassified brief, neither to exceed 120 double-spaced pages using 12-point font,” the order said. “The Special Counsel is granted corresponding relief for its combined responses.”

In late December, Judge Cannon approved a request from the special counsel’s office to require preparation of jury questions ahead of President Trump’s trial in May 2024.

A week before that, the special counsel’s team had asked Judge Cannon, a Trump appointee based in Florida, to set a deadline for early February regarding the first jury selection steps.

“Because the pre-trial publicity surrounding this case is substantial, the Government recommends a thorough jury selection process, including a written questionnaire completed by potential jurors before in-person voir dire,” Mr. Smith’s office said in a court filing.

“Accomplishing that requires enough time beforehand to allow for meaningful conferral among the parties and for the Court to consider and resolve disputes. Time may also be required to print questionnaires and conduct other processing.”

However, President Trump’s team opposed the proposal, writing a day later that his request was too early.

“Moreover, in addition to wasting the Court’s resources, this type of litigation detracts from the defendants’ efforts to review voluminous discovery and prepare motions that are crucial to the defense,” his lawyers wrote.

President Trump is also currently set for trial on March 4, 2024, in Washington on federal charges related to the 2020 presidential election. He also faces charges in Georgia accusing him of trying to subvert that state’s vote, as well as another state case in New York accusing him of falsifying business records in connection with money payments during the 2016 election.

He has also been sued in a business civil fraud case in New York, where a trial is taking place. President Trump has denied wrongdoing in all of the cases.

In the meantime, polls have shown that President Trump still has an outsized polling advantage over his Republican rivals in the 2024 presidential election, having garnered 61 percent support as of Sunday. That’s about 50 percentage points more than former U.N.

THE KING REPORT

GREG HUNTER 

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY

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