GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $23.25 TO $2004.00
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN 38 cents AT $22.57
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSED 2005.60
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: 22.56
Bitcoin morning price:, 42,662 DOWN 665 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $42,710 DOWN 617 dollars
Platinum price closing $887.60 DOWN $12.50
Palladium price; $920.95 DOWN $21.50
END
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
VENUE:
- GLOBEX
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
AUTO-REFRESH IS OFF
Last Updated 17 Jan 2024 12:41:45 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
PREMIUM SHANGHAI OVER NY: $50.35
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,709.74 DOWN 27.10 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 272023)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1581.17 DOWN 23.60 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023
*EURO GOLD: 1842,96 DOWN 21.28 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,026.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/16/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 01/18/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL 2
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 16
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
661 C JP MORGAN 20 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 2
TOTAL: 27 27
MONTH TO DATE: 3,478
JPMorgan stopped 5/27 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 27 NOTICES FOR 2700 OZ or 0.0839 TONNES
total notices so far: 3478 contracts for 347800 oz (10.818 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 765 for 3,825,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : /HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .779 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A LWITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 432.951 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 312 CONTRACTS TO 131,956 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD SMALL LONG LIQUIDATION, AND FEW SPEC SHORT COVERING. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A GOOD 465 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 465 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD 390 CONTRACT GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD SIZED 407 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.460 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.460 MILLION OZ
//TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 465 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 295 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 8572 contracts: OR 42.860 MILLION OZ (779 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 42.860 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 42.860 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 312 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 407 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.460 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 6.460 MILLION OZ/
NEW STANDING 6.460 million OZ /// WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 95 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD SIZED 465 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (465) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8405 CONTRACTS TO 489,334 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – removed 590 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 8.405 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $27.75 LOSS IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 11.698 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $27.75 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 4344 OI CONTRACTS (13.51) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4061 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 489,334
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4061 CONTRACTS WITH 8405 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4016 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4061 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2,765 CONTRACTS. ( THIS ENDS THE CONSECUTIVE HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AT 5)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4061 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8405) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4,061 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.698 TONNES. / 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERINGS// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2265 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 38,501 CONTRACTS OR 3,850,100 OZ OR 119.75 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3500 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 119.75 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 119.75/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 119.75 TONNES (WILL EQUAL LAST MONTH’S ISSUANCE OR A LITTLE GREATER)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 312 CONTRACTS OI TO 131,956 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 407 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 407 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 407 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 407 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 95 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.475 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $.08 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.70 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 350.41 PTS OR 2.16% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 282.61 OR 0.79% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.07% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1895 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2137 /Oil DOWN TO 73.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 7.24/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8.405 CONTRACTS TO 489,334 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $27.75 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE SOME LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS AT THE LOWER PRICES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4016 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 4016 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4016 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 4,344 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4016 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 8405 LOST COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $27.75 TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 2,765 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (11.698 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 11.5769 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $27.75) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 4344 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 13.51 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3900 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.1213 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 11.698 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $27.75
WE HAD – REMOVED 590 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4344 CONTRACTS OR 434400 OZ OR 13.51 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 271,971 good //t.a.s. induced.
final gold volumes/yesterday 317,185 strong t.a.s. induced
//speculators have left the gold arena
JAN 17 INITIAL
/ /// THE JAN 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3215.100 OZ brinks 100 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 70,432.349 oz ASAHI |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 27 notice(s) 2700 OZ 0.0839 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 283 contracts 28300 oz 0.880 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3478 notices 347800 oz 10.816 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
2 dealer deposits:
i) Into ASAHI 64,427.674 oz
ii)Into ASAHI enhanced: 6404.675 oz
total dealer deposits: 70,432.349 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i)Brinks: 3215,100 oz
(100 kilobars)
total withdrawals 3215.100 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 310 contracts having LOST 139 contracts. We had 178 notices served on Tuesday, so we gained 39 contracts or an additional 3900 oz will stand for delivery at the comex
FEB LOST ONLY 13,597 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 228,389
March GAINED 188 contracts to stand at 523.
APRIL GAINED 4615 CONTRACTS RISING TO 195,292.
We had 27 contracts filed for today representing 2700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 20 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 27 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3478 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (310 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 27 x 100 oz per contract equals 376,100 OZ OR 11.698 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN. contract month: No of notices filed so far (3478) x 100 oz + (310) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (27) x 100 oz) which equals 376,100 oz standing OR 11.687 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 11.698 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,474,682.951 45.86 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 20,092,349.294 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,237,397.739 (287,32 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,854,951.555 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,762,715 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 241.45 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 17/INITIAL
//2024// THE JAN 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 610,887.500 oz JPMorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 609,697.347 oz CNT Brinks Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 327 contracts (1,635,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 765 Contracts (3,825,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT 29,240.750 oz
ii) Into Brinks 579,434.750 oz
iii) Into Delaware: 1021.847 oz
total customer deposits 609,697.347 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.923 million oz/280.976 million or 46.97%
adjustment 547,251.222 oz adjusted from dealer to customer//vault ASAHI
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 610,847.500 oz
total deposit: 610,847.500 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.263 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 280.976 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 327 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 4 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 4 NOTICES SERVED ON tuesDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL nil OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX
FEB GAINED 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 181
MARCH LOST 598 CONTRACTS TO 101,956
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 51,054//fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 65,011 good//t.a.s. induced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 765 x 5,000 oz = 3,825,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (327) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 765 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (327) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 5.460 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.460 million oz/
New total standing: 6.460 million oz.
There are 42,263 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $ZZZ TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 864.40 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 433.500 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
END
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
Mathew Piepenburg…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
I guess this is to be expected at the Moscow exchange: Chinese yuan surpasses the dollar in the most traded currency in 2023
(Reuters/GATA)
China’s yuan ousts dollar to become most-traded currency in Moscow in 2023
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-01-16 21:50Section: Daily Dispatches
By Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow
Reuters
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
MOSCOW — The Moscow Exchange trading volume in Chinese yuan surpassed that of the U.S. dollar in 2023, the Kommersant daily reported today, as Moscow pursues a de-dollarisation strategy in the face of Western sanctions on its financial system.
Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on Beijing and the “no limits” partnership between the two countries, having increased energy supplies to China and stepped up purchases of Chinese goods from cars to smartphones as European and U.S. brands left the Russian market over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Yuan trading accounted for almost 42% of all foreign currency traded on Moscow Exchange with the volume in 2023 more than tripling year on year to 34.15 trillion roubles ($391.5 billion), Kommersant reported, citing Moscow Exchange data.
The dollar’s share stood at 39.5%, with a volume of 32.49 trillion roubles, down from 49.90 trillion roubles in 2022 and a more than 63% share. Yuan trading accounted for a 13% share in 2022. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /URANIUM
Uranium prices eclipse 100 dollars per lb.
(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)
Uranium Energy Restarts Wyoming Production Amid Soaring Prices
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 06:30 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
U.S.-based Uranium Energy Corp said on Tuesday it would restart uranium production at its fully permitted site in Wyoming as the resurgence in nuclear power has led to a new bull market in uranium.
Uranium Energy will resume 100% unhedged uranium production at its fully permitted, and past producing, Christensen Ranch In-Situ Recovery (ISR) operations in Wyoming. The recovered uranium will be processed at the fully operational Irigaray Central Processing Plant with a current licensed capacity of 2.5 million pounds U3O8 per year, the company said.
The first uranium production is expected in August 2024 and will be funded with existing cash on the company’s balance sheet. As Uranium Energy’s strategy has been to remain 100% unhedged, produced uranium will be sold at prevailing spot market prices which was $106 per pound U3O8 as of January 15, 2024 as reported by UxC.
“Uranium market fundamentals are the best the industry has witnessed, and various supply shocks have accelerated the bull market with recent prices eclipsing the $100 per pound level,” Uranium Energy president and CEO Amir Adnani said.
Combined with South Texas Hub and Spoke ISR Platform, Uranium Energy controls the largest S-K 1300 compliant ISR resource base in the United States with over 75,000,000 lbs of measured and indicated resources and 25,000,000 lbs of inferred resources.
At the end of 2023, TerraPower and Uranium announced a memorandum of understanding with objectives of reestablishing domestic supply chains of uranium fuel.
The renewed focus on nuclear energy in many developed economies has created a bull market for uranium in recent months.
Early in January, spot prices for uranium concentrate used in nuclear power generation hit a new 16-year high, climbing to $92.45 per pound.
Uranium prices have further room to rise after Kazatomprom—the largest uranium miner in the world—said last week that sulfuric acid shortages and construction delays at newly discovered deposits could lead to the company missing production targets—challenges that could remain into next year.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
end
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1955
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2191
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.37 PTS OR 2.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 589.02 PTS OR 3.71%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 164.43 PTS OR 0.40%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.19 EURO FALLS TO 1.0872 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.600 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.67/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2509***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.857** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.205…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.325
3j Gold at $2026.45 silver at: 22.80 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 24 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.35//
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,67// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.600% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8645 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9399 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.074 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.295 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.285 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.14…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 15 BASIS PTS AT 3.9512
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge.
Futures, Global Markets Slide As Central Banks Push Back Against Market Hopes For Early Rate Cuts
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 08:20 AM
US equity futures and global markets extended their decline on Wednesday after central bankers continued their push-back against market bets for interest rate cuts, deepening a global selloff across stocks and bonds. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures fall 0.4% and Nasdaq contracts ease about 0.5% suggesting another weak day ahead for US equities after ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned on Wednesday that aggressive bets on interest-rate cuts aren’t helping policymakers in the battle against lingering price pressures, echoing hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller on Tuesday who urged caution on the pace of easing. The VIX rose to 14.60, the highest leve since mid-November. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its rally to a fourth day while the 2Y Treasury yields climbed six basis points to 4.29% and 10-year yields rose 2bps to 4.08%. Oil dropped again with Brent sliding to $77 as gold also eases to near $2,025.
Meanwhile, fresh concerns about China’s economy added another headwind for equities. US-listed Chinese stocks fell in premarket trading as disappointing economic data and a lack of major stimulus deter investors, with the exchange-traded KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund, which holds over 30 US- and Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech firms, trading more than 3% lower. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Allakos drops 10% and appears set to extend Tuesday’s 60% plunge after the drug developer was downgraded to hold at Jefferies following two mid-stage trials that failed to meet their main goals.
- Donald Trump-tied stocks fall and appear set to give back some of Tuesday’s double-digit gains after the former president scored a big win at the Iowa caucuses. Digital World (DWAC) -8%, Phunware (PHUN) -60%
- Fisker (FSR) drops 3% after TD Cowen downgrades to market perform, saying the electric-vehicle maker’s growing pains are continuing to accumulate.
- Interactive Brokers (IBKR) falls 4% after the firm reported fourth-quarter total net interest income that missed estimates.
- Mattel (MAT) falls 3% after Morgan Stanley downgrades the toymaker to equal-weight, citing a tougher category outlook in 2024 and limited growth drivers.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) slips 1% after being downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan, which said the bank is now fairly valued, with limited near-term catalysts to propel shares higher.
- Plexus (PLXS) falls 1.7% after the company reported preliminary first-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Polaris (PII) gains 1% as Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to overweight, saying the risk/reward for shares in the maker of off-road vehicles is “too attractive to ignore.”
- Spirit Airlines (SAVE) declines 15% after a federal judge blocked JetBlue’s $3.8 billion acquisition of the budget airline.
Following the recent hawkish comments from central bankers, swaps market pricing for a Fed rate cut in March has dropped to around 65% from 80% on Friday, while money markets pushed back bets on the timing of the ECB’s first quarter-point cut to June, from April.
“Inflation was never going to be a straight line down, as we have seen in the US and Europe,” said Luke Hickmore, investment director at abrdn. “Rates will fall this year but market expectations around when and how much are going to be very volatile.”
Still more evidence that the battle against inflation isn’t over came from the UK, where price increases accelerated unexpectedly for the first time in 10-months, prompting traders to scale back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. Gilts tumbled and the pound gained as traders aggressively trimmed expectations for monetary-policy easing this year.
Basic resources and luxury-goods stocks were among the biggest decliners in Europe amid worries about slackening demand in China, a key market. The Stoxx Europe 600 index slumped more than 1%. All industry sectors were in the red, with real estate and retailers among the hardest hit. German two-year yields rose five basis points to 2.65%. Here are the biggest European movers Wednesday:
- IMI rises as much as 3.9% and is the top gainer in the Stoxx Europe 600 index in early trade after being upgraded to buy from neutral by Goldman Sachs, which sees scope for the engineering firm’s shares to outperform over the next year
- Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 3% in Milan trading, the most in two weeks, as the Italian government cleared the sale of the company’s landline network to KKR & Co. after a review process for an asset deemed to be of strategic interest to the state
- IAG was raised to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs, with analysts expecting the British Airways parent to see earnings growth this year and sustain higher margins. Shares rise as much as 0.9%
- Basic-Fit shares rises as much as 3.5% after the health and fitness club operator received a double upgrade to buy from underperform from Jefferies, which says its valuation has fallen too low
- BP shares fall as much as 1.5%, , to its lowest intraday level since Oct. after the oil giant said interim Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss will take up the role permanently
- Antofagasta declined as much as 4.9%, the most since July, after costs increased in the fourth quarter. Peers with copper exposure also edged lower
- Pearson shares fall as much as 2.5%, retreating further from recent 13-month highs, after the education publishing firm said adjusted operating profit for 2023 will slightly undershoot forecasts due to pound-dollar exchange-rate fluctuations
- 888 drops as much as 15%, the most since September, after the online gambling group reported lower 4Q revenue. Though analysts across the board cut their Ebitda forecasts for 2023 and 2024
- Meyer Burger shares slump as much as 46%, the most ever, after the Swiss solar panel maker announced it could shift focus to the US, shut one of its European production sites, and possibly raise more equity
Earlier in the session, Asian equities suffered broad losses for a second day with Hong Kong leading the selloff after Chinese economic data failed to moderate bearish momentum. Hang Seng Tech index slumped almost 4% and H shares plunged 3%. Shanghai Composite drops 0.6%, ChiNext dropped 1.2%, and the CSI 300 mainland Chinese benchmark also fell 2.2%. The losses came after official figures showed while China reached its 2023 economic goal, the country’s housing slump has worsened and domestic demand remained listless. South Korean stocks are also sharply lower, while Japanese shares extend 2024 outperformance by staying narrowly in the green thanks to the renewed implosion of the yen.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied around a one-month high while the yen extended its recent tumble, sending the USDJPY hovering around 147.6. Traders awaited the release of the central bank’s beige book and US retail sales, after the Fed’s Waller warned rates are unlikely to come down as quickly as they have done in the past
- GBP/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 1.2694 leading G-10 gains against the dollar; UK inflation unexpectedly picked up in December as CPI rose 4% from a year earlier
- EUR/USD pared losses to trade around 1.0880 after dropping 0.2% to 1.0856, the lowest level since Dec. 13; ECB President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg it’s likely interest rates will be cut in the summer in a push back to current market pricing
- AUD/USD fell 0.7% to 0.6535 as the Australian dollar led G-10 losses on disappointing Chinese economic data; China’s 4Q GDP rose 5.2% from a year ago, compared with a 5.3% estimate, home prices fell the most in almost nine years
- The loonie is set to drop for a fifth day as growing fears of inflation following UK data undermines investor sentiment, sending bonds and stocks lower.
In rates, the treasuries curve was aggressively flatter on the day, with front-end underperforming following a wider bear flattening move in gilts after data showed UK inflation picked up unexpectedly for the first time in 10 months. The 10Y TSY yield rose to session highs of 4.08%, reversing earlier losses; long-end Treasury yields were slightly richer on the day while front-end of the curve is cheaper by around 6bp vs Tuesday close; curve subsequently shifts flatter, following move in gilts with US 2s10s, 5s30s spreads tighter by 6bp and 4.5bp, remains near lows into early US session. On outright basis, UK 2-year yields remain cheaper by around 14bp on the day into early US session, which includes retail sales and a 20-year bond auction. US economic data includes January NY services business activity, December retail sales, import/export prices (8:30am), industrial production (9:15am), November business inventories and January NAHB housing market index (10am). Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak include Barr, Bowman (9am) and Williams (3pm); Fed release Beige book at 2pm
In commodities, oil fell again as a broad risk-off tone across markets coupled with a stronger US dollar offset concerns over Middle East tensions, including continued attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. WTI crude futures paused around $71.80 while Brent traded down to $77. In other news, BP Plc appointed Murray Auchincloss as its permanent chief executive officer, four months after the shock resignation of his predecessor.
Elsewhere, gold was steady after a Tuesday decline of more than 1% to trade around $2,028 per ounce and Bitcoin dropped below $43,000 while Ether is also lower, sliding 2%. A new rule requiring US businesses to report cryptocurrency transactions over USD 10k has been postponed until the IRS issues new regulations on digital asset reporting, according to Cointelegraph.
Looking the day ahead now, and data releases include UK CPI for December, US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for December, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Cipollone, Vasle, Simkus, Villeroy, Vujcic, Knot and Nagel, as well as the Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Williams. The Fed will also be releasing their Beige Book.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,776.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 467.23
- MXAP down 1.7% to 162.13
- MXAPJ down 2.2% to 491.66
- Nikkei down 0.4% to 35,477.75
- Topix down 0.3% to 2,496.38
- Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 15,276.90
- Shanghai Composite down 2.1% to 2,833.62
- Sensex down 2.2% to 71,506.16
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,393.08
- Kospi down 2.5% to 2,435.90
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.28%
- Euro little changed at $1.0869
- Brent Futures down 1.9% to $76.84/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,021.15
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.44
Top Overnight News
- China’s Q4 GDP numbers were largely inline with expectations (which isn’t a surprise since Premier Li preannounced GDP at Davos Tues morning) and industrial production for Dec was a bit better than anticipated (+6.8% vs. the Street +6.6%), but the GDP deflator shows the country still grappling with deflation while retail sales fell short in Dec (+7.4% vs. the Street +8%), the population decline accelerated, and property investment stayed weak. FT
- Aramco’s CEO said global oil markets can cope with Red Sea disruptions in the short-term, but prolonged attacks could create a problem. RTRS
- The ECB is “likely” to cut rates by or in the summer, Christine Lagarde said in response to a question on whether there’s majority support among officials for such a move. Policy makers are “on the right path” in curbing inflation, she said, adding that overoptimistic rate-cut bets in the market don’t help. BBG
- UK CPI runs hotter than anticipated, with headline +4% in Dec (up from +3.9% in Nov and firmer than the Street’s +3.8% forecast) and core +5.1% (flat vs. Nov and firmer than the Street’s +4.9% forecast). FT
- Qatar brokered a deal to permit medications to reach Israeli hostages in exchange for additional aid and medicine for Palestinian civilians. NYT
- The US is stepping up efforts to broker a diplomatic solution to the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Lebanon’s Hizbollah, as fears grow in Washington that the window is narrowing to avert a full-blown war erupting on the shared border. FT
- Biden has invited Congressional leaders to the White House for a meeting on Wed to discuss Ukraine aid and other fiscal matters (this will be the first face-to-face discussion between Biden and the congressional leadership in months). NYT
- Iran isn’t yet restocking Houthi rebels with weapons by sea after US and UK air strikes last week, Western officials said, signaling cautious optimism that the military action was successful in disrupting arms supplies. BBG
- JPMorgan plans to add to its headcount this year, President Daniel Pinto said. The bank sees opportunities in investment banking, international retail and US wealth management. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly pressured after the recent upside in yields and tapering of Fed rate cut expectations, while participants also digested mixed Chinese economic releases including GDP and activity data. ASX 200 declined as losses in the commodity-related sectors overshadowed the gains in defensives and tech. Nikkei 225 was initially boosted at the open on the back of a weaker currency and briefly climbed back above 36,000 but then pulled back from fresh three-decade highs and wiped out all of its gains as it succumbed to the risk-off mood. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated amid the mixed data releases from China and with Hong Kong significantly underperforming amid hefty losses in tech and property, with the latter pressured by the decline in Chinese home prices.
Top Asian News
- China’s stats bureau head said the economy faces a complex external environment and insufficient demand in 2024, as well as noted that low consumer prices reflect insufficient effective demand and expects a modest consumer price rise in 2024. NBS head stated China’s economy is at a crucial stage of recovery and its property market is showing some positive changes, while he added there is still relatively big room for China’s property sector to develop and there is still room to unveil more policy steps to support growth.
- China has drafted guideline on formatting standards for AI sector; details light
- China’s BYD (1211 HK) to stop making pouch-type batteries for its hybrid EVs on concerns they may leak; plans to completely stop using pouch cells by 2025, via Reuters citing sources.
- Former BoJ official Maeda says that the BoJ could end NIRP in April, but will likely move slowly in any additional normalisation steps, via Reuters.
European bourses are lower, with over 90% of the Stoxx600 (-1.1%) in the red, amid a negative risk tone following mixed Chinese data overnight, initial hawkish-tone and hotter-than-expected UK CPI; the FTSE 100 (-1.7%) lags, dragged down by miners. European sectors are entirely in the red; Real Estate suffers from the higher yield environment, Basic Resources and Energy are dragged lower by broader weakness in the commodity markets. US equity futures are trading on the backfoot, in tandem with losses seen in the European session. The RTY (-1.3%) significantly underperforms, continuing to extend on yesterday’s hefty losses. ES/NQ (-0.4%), into Retail Sales, Fed speak and a handful of earnings. Headline US Specifics: JPM will increase headcount this year; IBKR down after results; TSLA reduces Model Y prices in Germany.
Top European News
- Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices in Europe: Investor’s Business Daily
- Bank of Italy’s Panetta Sees Growth Under 1% in 2024: Radiocor
- Oil in Retreat as Risk-Off Mood Swamps Impact of Mideast Crisis
- Basic-Fit Climbs on Double Upgrade To Buy From Jefferies
- Frankfurt Airport Cancels Flights Amid Icy Winter Weather
FX
- USD continues to gain as Waller tempers the pace of rate cut expectations. DXY has advanced to a high of 103.58 with not much resistance until 104.
- EUR is one of the better performers vs. the USD today amid hawkish ECB speak. That said, EUR/USD saw a hefty decline from yesterday’s 1.0951 high. Further downside could bring its 200DMA at 1.0845 into play.
- The Pound is the only G10 currency firmer vs. USD amid hawkish inflation metrics; Cable hit a high just shy of the 1.27 mark but remains some way off yesterday’s best of 1.2729.
- Antipodeans both remain battered by risk environment with AUD lagging on account of Chinese sell-off overnight; AUD/USD next target is a Dec 7th low at 0.6525 with NZD/USD selling putting a test of 0.61 on the cards.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1168 vs exp. 7.1986 (prev. 7.1134).
Fixed Income
- USTs are contained, but with a modest bearish-bias given a hotter than expected UK CPI print and additional hawkish commentary from ECB speakers. Yields continue to bear-flatten a touch as participants digest Waller before Retail Sales and thereafter Bowman, Barr & Williams
- Bunds started the session on the backfoot and felt additional pressure on UK CPI which saw the 134.37 trough print (matches 8/12 low); since, benchmarks have found some reprieve though still remain in negative territory.
- Gilts are the clear laggard after an unexpected rise in UK CPI for December, which led benchmarks to fall to a 98.82 trough; levels to the downside include 98.29, Dec 12th low.
Commodities
- Crude is at lows, Brent (-2.1%), amid a concoction of bearish factors including the firmer Dollar, soured risk tone, hotter-than-expected UK CPI data, and the mixed Chinese GDP data overnight; Brent Mar is back under USD 77.00/bbl and markets await OPEC MOMR at 12:45GMT/07:45EST.
- Gold is subdued amid the firmer Dollar, but losses in the yellow metal are cushioned, potentially amid haven flows coupled with technical support; XAU resides around USD 2,025/oz.
- Base metals are softer across the board, in-fitting with the broader market mood, and in the aftermath of the mixed Chinese GDP data overnight.
- China is to cut gasoline price by CNY 50/t starting Jan 18th, according to the NDRC
- Saudi Aramco CEO says Red Sea attacks are manageable in the short-term, may create tanker shortage and weigh on market if it lasts longer
- Pemex reports that it is carrying out work activity which could result in flaring at the Deer Park, Texas facility (340k BPD)
- Exxon’s (XOM) 250k BPD Joliet Illinois refinery reports flaring, according to Reuters
- Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reports FY23 copper production at 661kt (vs guided 640-670kt)
ECB Speak
- ECB President Lagarde (Neutral) says inflation is not where the ECB wants it to be; confident the ECB will get inflation to the 2% target; Will stay restrictive for as long as necessary. Too optimistic markets do not help the ECB in its inflation fight. Cannot should victory until inflation is sustainably at 2%. Watching wages, profit margins, energy and supply chains. Second-round effects would be a cause for concern. ECB has reached peak rates, short of a major shock.
- ECB President Lagarde (Neutral) says it is likely that the ECB will cut rates by the summer, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Knot (Hawk) says markets are getting ahead of themselves on rate cuts; a lot must go well to hit the 2% inflation in 2025; rate path priced by markets can be self-defeating, via CNBC; “rate hike in the first half is rather unlikely”.
- ECB’s Vasle (Neutral) says his rate expectations are significantly different to the market; says it is absolutely premature to expect rate cuts at the start of Q2.
- ECB’s Panetta (Dove) says disinflation is happening, and is strong and will continue; says risks are emerging for raw material costs; adds that monetary conditions should adjust; awaiting data first to confirm the disinflation outlook.
- ECB’s Villeroy (Neutral) says the job of monetary policy is not finished yet; premature to say when the ECB will reduce rates this year
Geopolitics
- Maersk CEO sees Red Sea disruptions “lasting a few months at least”
- US President Biden’s administration is expected to announce plans to designate Yemen’s Houthi rebel group as a global terrorist organisation, according to an official cited by CBS News.
- US National Security Council spokesperson said the US welcomed the announcement by Qatar that an agreement was reached to have medicine delivered to hostages in Gaza, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Defense Minister said the country is engaged in talks with Russia over concluding an MoU on respect for national sovereignty, territorial integrity and regional interests, according to journalist Aslani.
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Taiwan’s election result cannot stop the trend towards reunification and China is willing to create the widest space for peaceful reunification, while it added that Taiwan has never been a country and China will never leave any space for Taiwan independence, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications 10.4%, prior 9.9%
- 08:30: Jan. New York Fed Services Business, prior -14.6
- 08:30: Dec. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.5%, prior -0.4%
- 08:30: Dec. Import Price Index YoY, est. -2.0%, prior -1.4%
- 08:30: Dec. Export Price Index YoY, est. -0.7%, prior -5.2%
- 08:30: Dec. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.6%, prior -0.9%
- 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
- 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
- 08:30: Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
- 09:15: Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
- 09:15: Dec. Capacity Utilization, est. 78.7%, prior 78.8%
- 10:00: Nov. Business Inventories, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
- 10:00: Jan. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 39, prior 37
- 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Central Bank Speakers
- 09:00: Fed’s Barr Speaks at Conference on Cyber Risk
- 09:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks About Future of Bank Capital Reform
- 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 15:00: Fed’s Williams Speaks at NY Fed Event
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After all the comparisons with the 1970s over the last few years, Henry pointed out yesterday that actually the late-1960s are becoming an increasingly good parallel. That was another period of low unemployment, rising deficits, and growing geopolitical risks. But it also saw inflation rebound, as the Fed cut rates just as fiscal spending rose because of the Vietnam War. Although markets are encouraging and hoping for significant rate cuts this year, today’s policymakers are cautious about a repeat. Interestingly since the ECB’s Lane spoke over the weekend, the central bank speak has certainly turned a little more cautious about endorsing the amount of cuts currently priced in by markets. Our view is that the pricing is very aggressive versus history absent a recession so for it to be correct you have to believe in the immaculate soft landing scenario or a recession. We will see. Back to Henry’s note and overall the late 1960s shows that with tight labour markets, fiscal stimulus and geopolitical shocks, that’s the sort of environment where inflation can return if policy errors are made. See the report here.
On this theme, markets have struggled over the last 24 hours, with bonds and equities selling off after Fed Governor Waller pushed back on market expectations for rapid rate cuts. His November 28th speech was a big part of the rates and risk repricing towards the end of the year but this time his comments were more balanced but perhaps that was as much due to how far markets have come in terms of Fed pricing. What was dovish back then may look more hawkish now.
Yesterday’s speech had several important lines, but when it came to the market reaction, the key point was that he saw “no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past”. So that was an explicit pushback on market pricing, which had been expecting 165bps of rate cuts in 2024 before the speech, and it meant that 10yr Treasury yields (+11.8bps) saw their largest daily increase in over two months (albeit with some catch-up needed after the holiday), ending the day at 4.06%. Other assets also saw significant moves, with the Dollar Index (+0.93%) seeing its biggest daily increase since last March, whilst the S&P 500 shed -0.37%. China risk is slumping overnight as we’ll see below. Today’s highlights are US retail sales, UK CPI as we go to print, and lots of ECB speakers.
In terms of the rest of Waller’s speech, it did look towards rate cuts in 2024, saying that if “inflation doesn’t rebound and stay elevated, I believe the FOMC will be able to lower the target range for the federal funds rate this year.” But his view was that cuts should proceed “methodically and carefully”, and that he’d also be focusing on the CPI revisions scheduled for February 9. Readers may recall that last year, the revisions showed that inflation was declining slower than previously thought, so that’ll be a crucial update affecting the timing of any potential rate cuts.
However, even with Waller’s speech, it was striking that investors remained pretty confident that the Fed will be cutting rates by March, and fairly rapidly over 2024 as a whole. This echoes what we saw after the CPI last week, when the upside surprise didn’t seem to affect investor conviction much about future rate cuts. In fact by the close, the pricing for a cut by March was only down slightly to 69%, having been at 74% the previous day. Likewise for 2024 as a whole, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting came down from 165bps intraday just before the speech, to 157bps by the end, so still a rapid pace by historical standards. That means there’s still a tension between what Fed officials are saying and market pricing, since Waller was openly discussing a pace of cuts that were slower than previous cycles. Moreover, officials only have until Friday before the blackout period starts ahead of the next meeting, so after that the next scheduled remarks won’t be until Chair Powell’s press conference on January 31.
As noted at the top, this hawkish backdrop meant that US Treasuries struggled, with the 2yr yield up +7.7bps to 4.22%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +11.8bps to 4.06%. And in Canada, there was an even larger move for the 10yr yield (+13.8bps) after their latest inflation print for December showed that core CPI was proving stickier than anticipated. Looking at the measures followed by the Bank of Canada, the trim core rate was up to +3.7% (vs. +3.4% expected), and the median core rate remained at +3.6% (vs. +3.3% expected). And in turn, that saw investors push back the timing of future rate cuts, and the likelihood of a cut by March came down from 35% to 23%.
Over in Europe, we had several pieces of ECB commentary, with pushback against near-term pricing of cuts again evident. Among the hawks, Germany’s Nagel repeated his comments that market discussion of rate cuts had come too soon, while Lithuania’s Simkus said he was “far less optimistic” than markets on rate cuts. France’s Villeroy suggested it was premature to speak of when in 2024 rate cuts are likely to come. Pricing of a March cut inched lower again from 29% to 25% yesterday (it was 43% on Friday). In bonds, the 2yr bund yield (+0.2bps) was little changed after the sizeable sell-off on Monday, but the 10yr yield rose by +2.5bps to 2.26%, its highest since December 11. We have another busy day of ECB speakers ahead today so watch out for them in what has been a more hawkish week to date.
For equities, it was also a fairly negative session, with the S&P 500 (-0.37%) declining as US markets returned after Monday’s holiday. In addition, the decline was broader than the headline loss suggested, as the index was dragged up by the outperformance of the Magnificent 7, which were flat on the day. The latter was supported by a +3.06% gain for chipmaker Nvidia. Within the S&P 500, energy (-2.40%) and materials (-1.19%) stocks led the declines. Otherwise, the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.21%) fell for a 3rd consecutive session, reaching its lowest level in over a month. And there were also declines in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) lost ground for a second day running.
In Asia the Hang Seng (-2.81%) is sharply lower led by real estate and consumer non-cyclical stocks. The KOSPI (-2.43%) is not far behind. Mainland Chinese stocks are also trading in the red with the CSI (-0.73%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.64%) down. S&P 500 (-0.19%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) futures are also slipping.
Coming back to China, the economy expanded by +5.2% in 2023, hitting the government’s official target after the previous year’s miss but the outlook for 2024 remains uncertain as the world’s second-biggest economy is still contending with the ongoing property crisis, deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer and business confidence. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew +1.0% (+1.1% expected) in Q4, slowing from a revised +1.5% pace in the previous quarter. The fact that the deflator fell -1.5% in the quarter is also gaining a lot of attention as deflation continues.
Retail sales advanced +7.4% y/y in December (v/s +8.0% expected), slowing from a +10.1% increase in November. At the same time, production rose by +6.8% y/y in December, slightly higher than the previous month’s +6.6%, and meeting market forecasts. Housing data was also soft overnight.
Elsewhere yesterday, UK gilts outperformed (with the 10yr yield flat at 3.80%) after data showed wage growth was running slower than expected. For instance, averageweekly earnings were up by +6.5% over the three months to November compared with the previous year, beneath the +6.8% reading expected. We also found out that the number of payrolled employees was down by -24k in December (vs. -13k expected). Shortly after we go to press this morning, we’ll get the CPI release for December as well, so keep an eye out for that in terms of the timing of any potential rate cut.
Lastly, there were also a few other data releases out yesterday. In the US, the Empire State manufacturing survey fell to -43.7 in January (vs. -5.0 expected), which is the lowest since the first Covid wave in spring 2020, and otherwise the lowest since the start of the series in 2001. We also had the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey for November, which showed 1yr inflation expectations were down to 3.2%, and 3yr expectations were down to 2.2%. In both cases, that was the lowest reading since February 2022. That said, our European economists’ own dbDIG survey, which is one month ahead (for December), suggests that inflation expectations may be stabilising at still slightly elevated levels.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK CPI for December, US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for December, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Cipollone, Vasle, Simkus, Villeroy, Vujcic, Knot and Nagel, as well as the Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Williams. The Fed will also be releasing their Beige Book.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Negative sentiment continues with equities and crude lower, Dollar firmer and GBP bid post-CPI; US Retail Sales due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 06:12 AM
- European bourses and US futures are entirely in the red owing to a soured risk tone and mixed Chinese data overnight
- Dollar is firmer, Pound is bid following hotter-than-expected UK CPI and Antipodeans lag
- Bonds weaker amid hawkish central bank speak and hot UK CPI; Fed speak & Retail Sales due
- Crude sinks due to a firmer Dollar & mixed Chinese data; XAU is weaker though losses are cushioned amid haven flows, base metals entirely in the red
- Looking ahead, US MBA, Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Japanese Machinery Orders, Fed Beige Book, Comments from ECB’s Knot & Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Barr & Bowman, Supply from the US, Earnings from, US Bancorp & Citizen Financial Group.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are lower, with over 90% of the Stoxx600 (-1.1%) in the red, amid a negative risk tone following mixed Chinese data overnight, initial hawkish-tone and hotter-than-expected UK CPI; the FTSE 100 (-1.7%) lags, dragged down by miners.
- European sectors are entirely in the red; Real Estate suffers from the higher yield environment, Basic Resources and Energy are dragged lower by broader weakness in the commodity markets.
- US equity futures are trading on the backfoot, in tandem with losses seen in the European session. The RTY (-1.3%) significantly underperforms, continuing to extend on yesterday’s hefty losses. ES/NQ (-0.4%), into Retail Sales, Fed speak and a handful of earnings.
- Headline US Specifics: JPM will increase headcount this year; IBKR down after results; TSLA reduces Model Y prices in Germany.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- USD continues to gain as Waller tempers the pace of rate cut expectations. DXY has advanced to a high of 103.58 with not much resistance until 104.
- EUR is one of the better performers vs. the USD today amid hawkish ECB speak. That said, EUR/USD saw a hefty decline from yesterday’s 1.0951 high. Further downside could bring its 200DMA at 1.0845 into play.
- The Pound is the only G10 currency firmer vs. USD amid hawkish inflation metrics; Cable hit a high just shy of the 1.27 mark but remains some way off yesterday’s best of 1.2729.
- Antipodeans both remain battered by risk environment with AUD lagging on account of Chinese sell-off overnight; AUD/USD next target is a Dec 7th low at 0.6525 with NZD/USD selling putting a test of 0.61 on the cards.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1168 vs exp. 7.1986 (prev. 7.1134).
- Click here for more details.
- Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are contained, but with a modest bearish-bias given a hotter than expected UK CPI print and additional hawkish commentary from ECB speakers. Yields continue to bear-flatten a touch as participants digest Waller before Retail Sales and thereafter Bowman, Barr & Williams
- Bunds started the session on the backfoot and felt additional pressure on UK CPI which saw the 134.37 trough print (matches 8/12 low); since, benchmarks have found some reprieve though still remain in negative territory.
- Gilts are the clear laggard after an unexpected rise in UK CPI for December, which led benchmarks to fall to a 98.82 trough; levels to the downside include 98.29, Dec 12th low.
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Crude is at lows, Brent (-2.1%), amid a concoction of bearish factors including the firmer Dollar, soured risk tone, hotter-than-expected UK CPI data, and the mixed Chinese GDP data overnight; Brent Mar is back under USD 77.00/bbl and markets await OPEC MOMR at 12:45GMT/07:45EST.
- Gold is subdued amid the firmer Dollar, but losses in the yellow metal are cushioned, potentially amid haven flows coupled with technical support; XAU resides around USD 2,025/oz.
- Base metals are softer across the board, in-fitting with the broader market mood, and in the aftermath of the mixed Chinese GDP data overnight.
- China is to cut gasoline price by CNY 50/t starting Jan 18th, according to the NDRC
- Saudi Aramco CEO says Red Sea attacks are manageable in the short-term, may create tanker shortage and weigh on market if it lasts longer
- Pemex reports that it is carrying out work activity which could result in flaring at the Deer Park, Texas facility (340k BPD)
- Exxon’s (XOM) 250k BPD Joliet Illinois refinery reports flaring, according to Reuters
- Antofagasta (ANTO LN) reports FY23 copper production at 661kt (vs guided 640-670kt)
- Click here for more details.
ECB SPEAK
- ECB President Lagarde (Neutral) says inflation is not where the ECB wants it to be; confident the ECB will get inflation to the 2% target; Will stay restrictive for as long as necessary. Too optimistic markets do not help the ECB in its inflation fight. Cannot should victory until inflation is sustainably at 2%. Watching wages, profit margins, energy and supply chains. Second-round effects would be a cause for concern. ECB has reached peak rates, short of a major shock.
- ECB President Lagarde (Neutral) says it is likely that the ECB will cut rates by the summer, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Knot (Hawk) says markets are getting ahead of themselves on rate cuts; a lot must go well to hit the 2% inflation in 2025; rate path priced by markets can be self-defeating, via CNBC; “rate hike in the first half is rather unlikely”.
- ECB’s Vasle (Neutral) says his rate expectations are significantly different to the market; says it is absolutely premature to expect rate cuts at the start of Q2.
- ECB’s Panetta (Dove) says disinflation is happening, and is strong and will continue; says risks are emerging for raw material costs; adds that monetary conditions should adjust; awaiting data first to confirm the disinflation outlook.
- ECB’s Villeroy (Neutral) says the job of monetary policy is not finished yet; premature to say when the ECB will reduce rates this year
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
DATA RECAP
- UK Core CPI MM (Dec) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%); Core CPI YY (Dec) 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.1%)
- UK CPI MM (Dec) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); CPI YY (Dec) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.9%); All Services 6.4% (prev. 6.3%)
- UK RPI YY (Dec) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.3%); RPI MM (Dec) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
- UK RPIX YY (Dec) 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%); RPI-X (Retail Prices) MM(Dec) 0.4% (Prev. -0.2%); RPI Index (Dec) 379.0 (Prev. 377.3)
- UK PPI Output Prices MM NSA (Dec) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%); PPI Output Prices YY NSA (Dec) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.1%); PPI Input Prices MM NSA (Dec) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.4%)
- UK PPI Input Prices YY NSA (Dec) -2.8% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -2.6%, Rev. -2.7%); PPI Core Output YY NSA (Dec) 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%)
- EU HICP Final YY (Dec) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY (Dec) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
- French Budget Balance (Nov) -197.97B (Prev. -177.71B)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Senate voted 68-13 to advance the stopgap funding bill through the first procedural hurdle in an effort to avert a shutdown.
- US Secretary of State Blinken says they are dealing very directly and clearly with China on businesses and despite differences, there are places to cooperate more
GEOPOLITICS
- Maersk (MAERSKB DC) CEO sees Red Sea disruptions “lasting a few months at least”
- US President Biden’s administration is expected to announce plans to designate Yemen’s Houthi rebel group as a global terrorist organisation, according to an official cited by CBS News.
- US National Security Council spokesperson said the US welcomed the announcement by Qatar that an agreement was reached to have medicine delivered to hostages in Gaza, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Defense Minister said the country is engaged in talks with Russia over concluding an MoU on respect for national sovereignty, territorial integrity and regional interests, according to journalist Aslani.
OTHER
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Taiwan’s election result cannot stop the trend towards reunification and China is willing to create the widest space for peaceful reunification, while it added that Taiwan has never been a country and China will never leave any space for Taiwan independence, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin (-1.7%) continues to edge lower and now resides below the USD 43k mark, whilst Ethereum (-2.2%) posts losses to a slightly larger magnitude.
- A new rule requiring US businesses to report cryptocurrency transactions over USD 10k has been postponed until the IRS issues new regulations on digital asset reporting, according to Cointelegraph.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly pressured after the recent upside in yields and tapering of Fed rate cut expectations, while participants also digested mixed Chinese economic releases including GDP and activity data.
- ASX 200 declined as losses in the commodity-related sectors overshadowed the gains in defensives and tech.
- Nikkei 225 was initially boosted at the open on the back of a weaker currency and briefly climbed back above 36,000 but then pulled back from fresh three-decade highs and wiped out all of its gains as it succumbed to the risk-off mood.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated amid the mixed data releases from China and with Hong Kong significantly underperforming amid hefty losses in tech and property, with the latter pressured by the decline in Chinese home prices.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China’s stats bureau head said the economy faces a complex external environment and insufficient demand in 2024, as well as noted that low consumer prices reflect insufficient effective demand and expects a modest consumer price rise in 2024. NBS head stated China’s economy is at a crucial stage of recovery and its property market is showing some positive changes, while he added there is still relatively big room for China’s property sector to develop and there is still room to unveil more policy steps to support growth.
- China has drafted guideline on formatting standards for AI sector; details light
- China’s BYD (1211 HK) to stop making pouch-type batteries for its hybrid EVs on concerns they may leak; plans to completely stop using pouch cells by 2025, via Reuters citing sources.
- Former BoJ official Maeda says that the BoJ could end NIRP in April, but will likely move slowly in any additional normalisation steps, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q4) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.3%, Rev. 1.5%); GDP YY (Q4) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 4.9%)
- Chinese Industrial Production YY (Dec) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.6%)
- Chinese Retail Sales YY (Dec) 7.4% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 10.1%)
- Chinese China House Prices YY (Dec) -0.4% (Prev. -0.2%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.37 PTS OR 2.09% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 589.02 PTS OR 3.11% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 164.43 OR 0.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.32% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1955 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2191 /Oil DOWN TO 7104 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 76.96/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
This is not good for China as demographics is killing the country. Latest data shows lowest birth rate in 74 years.
(zerohedge)
China Population Plunges With Lowest Birth Rate In 74 Years As GDP Miraculously Tops Target Amid Strong Data Dump
TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 09:22 PM
Confirming Premier Li’s earlier leak, China’s economy grew at 5.2% YoY – comfortably and miraculously beating the all-knowing official target of ‘around 5%’ (which is the lowest target in decades), as industrial production and investment climbed in the final stretch of the year.
However, thew GDP print at +5.2% was weaker than the +5.3% consensus estimate.
While GDP accelerated, other indicators were mixed in the final month of 2023:
- Industrial output rose 6.8% in December from a year ago, better than a 6.6% increase projected by economists
- Retail sales grew 7.4%, weaker/worse than the forecast for an 8% gain
- Fixed-asset investment climbed 3% in the year, slightly better than a predicted 2.9% rise
- The urban jobless rate was 5.1% last month, up/worse from 5% in November
“China’s economy withstood external pressures and overcame domestic challenges to rebound and improve in 2023,” the NBS said in a statement accompanying the data.
The agency warned, though, that economic development “still faces some difficulties and challenges.”
China released its jobless rate among young people (which it decided to stop issuing once it hit a record high above 20%) – but in the wonderfully Chinese way, the new series (at 14.9%) is entirely incomparable as it ‘excludes students’.
A bigger problem for liquidity-hypers was that Li explicitly pointed out that China’s growth rate last year – a rise from the figure of 3% in 2022 when the country was hit by its arcane Zero-COVID policies – was achieved without resorting to “massive stimulus” and the economy was making “steady progress”.
“We did not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks, rather we focused on strengthening the internal drivers,” he said.
“Just as a healthy person often has a strong immune system, the Chinese economy can handle ups and downs in its performance. The overall trend of long-term growth will not change.”
The biggest threat to the economy remains the housing sector and China’s property crisis is not getting any better at all as the number of cities seeing home price increases continues to collapse…
Finally, China’s population shrank faster last year, falling by 2 million people.
The 9 million births was the lowest total since at least the start of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, and 11 million people died.
That number was probably boosted by the COVID pandemic, but there’s no detail in today’s data about cause of death.
And that’s a big problem – because you can’t print people… and dependents are soaring.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN//covid vaccines
Robert H:
8) Japanese doctors reconfirm what we track here: THOUSANDS of papers have reported crippling and/or deadly side effects of “vaccination”—an “unprecedented” crisis in the history of medicine
Apart from the economic woes and arrogance of deadbeat politicians spending like drunken sailors the world is confronted with a social and health mess of global proportions that will make everything worse.
And we wonder why civilizations fall?
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/japanese-doctors-reconfirm-what-we
3 CHINA
CHINA/
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK/EU
Uk inflation hotter than expected and that puts a global rate cut on hold for a while
(zerohedge)
Global Rate-Cut Hopes Plunge After UK Inflation, Lagarde Misfire, Waller Walkback
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 08:26 AM
Fed Governor Waller started it with a significant reversal from his earlier dovish exuberance that helped kick off an unprecedented rally in bonds and stocks (and easing of financial conditions to end last year), but positioning The Fed’s next move as slow and steady and no rush (suggesting a March start is off the tabel and six cuts are unlikely).
Then Christine Lagarde attempted some open-mouth operations this morning from Davos, seemingly issuing forward guidance on the ECB’s actions (but notably walking back the expectations of an April cut). When asked about rate-cuts in 2024, she replied:
“I would say it’s likely too,” Lagarde said.
“But I have to be reserved, because we are also saying that we are data dependent, and that there is still a level of uncertainty and some indicators that are not anchored at the level where we would like to see them.”
Lagarde also warned that market expectations weren’t helping policy makers in their fight against inflation.
“It is not helping our fight against inflation, if the anticipation is such that they are way too high compared with what’s likely to happen.”
And then UK inflation hit, reaccelerating unexpectedly for the first time in 10 months. The Consumer Prices Index rose 4% from a year earlier in December, up from a 3.9% rise the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had expected a slight fall to 3.8%. Services inflation also increased, and a core measure stripping out food and energy held at 5.1%.
UK food inflation continued to slow, dropping to 8% from 9.2% in November. That was more than offset by an increase in alcohol and tobacco prices, which rose by 12.8% from a year ago.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has stuck to his higher-for-longer messaging on rates, warning that January’s CPI figures could show an increase due to higher household energy bills.
“The rise in inflation today suggests that the market has got ahead of itself in expecting early rate reductions,” said Ed Monk, associate director at Fidelity International.
“Today’s reading is a setback. The last portion of above-target inflation may prove the most difficult to shift.”
All of which sent yields higher in each region and rate-cut expectations in the US, EU, and UK are all sliding fast (most notably the latter)…
This month’s inflation figures pour cold water on the market’s ‘mission accomplished’ attitude towards central bank inflation-battling.
“Inflation was never going to be a straight line down, as we have seen in the US and Europe,” said Luke Hickmore, investment director at abrdn.
“Rates will fall this year but market expectations around when and how much are going to be very volatile.”
Stocks, bonds, and gold are all lower this morning, and the dollar stronger after this ‘hawkish’ shift.
END
SWEDEN/IRAN/USA
Shssss! Please do not wake up Biden, the world protector, from his sleep. Biden, the Magnificent has created such a global mess!
(Reuters/Jerusalem Post)
Sweden summons Iranian chargé d’affaires over detained citizens
By REUTERSJANUARY 17, 2024 20:47
Sweden has summoned the Iranian chargé d’affaires to demand the immediate release of Swedish citizens being held in custody in Iran, the Swedish foreign ministry said on Wednesday.
“The Government is working intensively and tirelessly to secure the release without delay of Swedish citizens detained in Iran for no apparent reason,” the ministry said in a statement.
“In late 2023, a man with Swedish and Iranian citizenship was detained for no apparent reason,” the statement said.
A Swedish man in his 20s was also arrested in Iran earlier in January, the ministry said this week.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA
Qatari plane lands in Egypt with medication to be brought to Gaza
The Prime Minister’s Office announced that the operation was launched “under the direction of Netanyahu and following the agreement of the head of the Mossad Barnea with Qatar.”
The first shipment of medication from Qatar landed at the Al Arish airport in Egypt on Wednesday morning, according to Israeli media, citing Qatari news.
The medication was bought from France and will reportedly be sent to Egypt in two shipments to Egypt before being transferred to Gaza.
The agreement states that proof must be provided to Israel that the medication did reach the hostages.
Comments by a senior Hamas official
A senior Hamas official, Musa Abu Marzouk, made a comment about the agreement on his X account, saying, “The Red Cross submitted a request to provide medicine to Hamas prisoners of war, and there were 140 types of such medicine, so we set several conditions.”
Marzouk then details the conditions. The conditions include that in exchange for each package of medicine, a thousand packages must be provided for Gazans; The medicine must be provided by a trusted country; The Red Cross will distribute the medicines in four hospitals covering all areas in the Gaza Strip, including medicine for the hostages; Food and aid for the Gaza Strip must be increased; and the Israeli army must be prevented from inspecting the drug shipments.
Deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau Musa Abu Marzouk talks during an interview in Cairo on August 9. (credit: REUTERS)
Initially, France offered to supply the medication to the hostages, but Hamas refused because of France’s position of “supporting the Israeli occupation,” according to a Kan News report.
Hamas requested Qatar to supply the drugs, and Qatar agreed, according to Marbouk, Kan News reported. Marzouk added that Hamas must be the one to determine the quantities, the middleman, the distribution mechanism, and the supply of medicines to the north of the Gaza Strip.
Israel and the US in response to the deal
Commending on the deal, an Israeli official stated, “We hope that the drug deal will finally materialize and they will reach their destination. Qatar will guarantee the delivery of the drugs to the abductees. The success of the deal will create a good dynamic for achieving a deal to release the abductees.” The Israeli official did not reveal how they would know the drugs had reached the abductees.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced that the operation was launched “under the direction of Netanyahu and following the agreement of the head of the Mossad Barnea with Qatar.”
The office also highlighted that the list of medication was written up in Israel and in accordance with the medical needs of the abductees. In addition to the medication, humanitarian aid is expected to be sent to Gazans.
The US envoy for humanitarian affairs, David Satterfield, expressed concern and frustration for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, asking the Israeli government to increase its aid, emphasizing a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, the Kan News report stated.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also requested to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza, claiming that this would permit the US to continue protecting and assisting Israel. The US aims to increase the number of trucks entering Gaza to 300 per day.Go to the full article >>
end
LEBANON/ISRAEL
Israeli Air Force attacks southern Lebanon – report
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 17, 2024 12:20Updated: JANUARY 17, 2024 12:43
The Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon several times on Wednesday morning, the military announced in a statement. An IDF tank also fired on positions in the Ita al-Sha’ab region in Lebanon. In addition, artillery forces fired to remove a threat to the al-Dahira region.
end
LEBANON/ISRAEL
IDF takes out Hezbollah terrorists who fired barrage at Israel’s North
The IDF killed the Hezbollah terrorists responsible for rocket fire toward Rosh Hanikra on Wednesday, the Israeli military said.
Earlier on Wednesday, several launches were detected from Lebanon to northern Israel. One of the Hezbollah launch teams that fired rockets at Rosh HaNikra was identified immediately after the launch by an IDF aircraft that followed and attacked it.
Later, Air Force fighter jets attacked a number of active launchers and terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
This is in addition to IDF artillery strikes in other areas in southern Lebanon.Go to the full article >
END
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
IDF, Shin Bet kill head of terror cell in Nablus during overnight operation
The IDF and the Shin Bet eliminated the head of a terror cell who was planning to carry out a large-scale terror attack, by using an IAF aircraft.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 17, 2024 08:30Updated: JANUARY 17, 2024 09:45
Footage of Israeli security services striking Head of Terrorist Infrastructure of the Balata camp in Nablus Amed Abdullah Abu-Shalal, Januay 17, 2024 (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-782492
The head of a terrorist cell in Nablus was killed on Tuesday overnight in a joint operation between the IDF and the Shin Bet, the military revealed on Wednesday.
During the operation in the Balata camp in Nablus, the IDF and the Shin Bet eliminated the head of a terror cell, Amed Abdullah Abu-Shalal, who was planning to carry out a large-scale terror attack, by using an IAF aircraft.
Abdullah was responsible for carrying out numerous attacks over the last year, including the shooting attack in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah, which wounded two Jerusalem residents.
He was also responsible for the bombing attack against IDF soldiers in October, where a soldier was wounded.
Iran and weapons
The IDF eliminated Abdullah after receiving an intelligence report from the Shin Bet regarding his intentions.
They eliminated him and found weapons in his vehicle.
The terror cell received funding from Iran with the cooperation of the terrorist headquarters in Gaza.
end
Do not allow Palestinian workers into Israel, Likud MKs and ministers demand
Some 90,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank are employed in Israel.
By ELIAV BREUER
The Likud’s ministers in the government should not support any decision to allow Palestinian workers from the West Bank into Israel, 12 Likud Members of Knesset (MKs) and two ministers wrote in a petition addressed to the other ministers of the Likud on Wednesday.
The petition followed an admission by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday that Israel was considering a pilot program for the entry of Palestinian workers aged 45 and older, and after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned this week that not allowing Palestinians to work in Israel would strengthen Hamas in the West Bank and ultimately lead to a deterioration in the security situation.
Walla reported earlier this week that the Population and Immigration Authority was examining a proposal from the head of the Contractors Association, Eran Siv, for a personal file for each worker intending to come to Israel. The intention is to facilitate the entry of older Palestinian workers with a clean security record in Israel who have been working in Israel for years.
“Since the beginning of the war on October 7, central sectors of the economy have frozen due to their dependence on workers from Judea and Samaria and Gaza,” the petition began. “The required quota (of workers) for the economy can be filled by agreements with a number of countries, in which there are thousands of workers interested in working in Israel.”
Gov’t is ‘tarrying’ from doing so
Palestinian workers in Israel (credit: REUTERS)
However, the government is “tarrying” from doing so, and every day that the sectors return frozen cost the state NIS 3.1 billion, the petitioners claimed, based on what they said was data from the finance ministry.
“In parallel, there is talk in the government of returning tens of thousands of Palestinian workers into Israel, as if October 7 never happened,” and despite what they claimed were 83% of Palestinians in the West Bank who supported Hamas’ October 7 massacre.
“It is not clear how the government of Israel wishes to run a ‘pilot’ on the security of its citizens? Should we enter Palestinian workers and see if they are murderers? Have we learned nothing?” the MKs and ministers wrote.
The question of the reentry of Palestinian workers has divided politicians in both the coalition and opposition – and even within political parties themselves – for weeks, as the MKs from the Likud who signed the petition – as well as MKs from the far-right Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties – have argued that despite preemptive screening by the Shin Bet, these workers could pose a security risk and provide information for future attacks against Israel.
In the opposition, MKs from the right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party and even some MKs from the centrist Yesh Atid party have argued against bringing Palestinian workers back, while others from Yesh Atid, Labor, and the two Israeli-Arab parties – Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al – support the move.
Despite the fact that the petition was addressed to the Likud’s ministers, two of the signers were Likud ministers themselves: Economy Minister Nir Barkat, and Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli. There are 16 other Likud ministers, including Netanyahu and Barkat.
Barkat is a leading candidate to run for the head of Likud should Netanyahu step down or be removed from office, and has consistently criticized the prime minister and defense ministers’ handling of the war.
“Gallant lives in the mistaken conception of October 6. It is sad to see that Gallant still believes that distributing money to the Palestinians will buy us quiet from terrorism,” Barkat said in a statement earlier this week. “It is not Israel’s job to find employment for Palestinian workers … what was will not repeat itself,” he added.
The economy minister repeated his claim following the ramming and stabbing attack in Ra’anana on Monday.
One of the MKs who signed the petition, Dan Illouz, added on Wednesday that “the October 7th massacre, facilitated by Palestinian workers from Gaza using their work permits, is a harsh lesson against underestimating extremist threats. This tragedy has shattered the illusion that boosting the Palestinian economy will lead to peace. The reality is that these terrorists are driven by a Nazi-like ideology of hate, not economic hardship.”
“Israel must now act decisively.,” Illouz said. “We should stop the entry of Palestinian workers from Judea and Samaria, as their support for such atrocities signifies a clear danger. Our nation is not responsible for Palestinian livelihoods; they should develop their own economy. For our labor needs, global alternatives exist but we just need to signal these are not just temporary solutions. “
Some 90,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank are employed in Israel. In contrast to what is happening in areas within the Green Line, some of the Palestinian workers who worked in the territories of Judea and Samaria, approximately 8,000 people, have been returned to their jobs in industrial areas such as Barkan, Mishor Adumim, and large settlements like Ariel. Security procedures for their work have been approved.
Ofer Petersburg contributed to this report.
end
USA//IRAQ/IRANIAN BACKED MILITANTS
Finally, Biden the Magnificent acts: he is now designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization
(zerohedge)
US To Relist Yemen’s Houthis As Designated Global Terrorists After Biden Removed Them In 2021
TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 08:40 PM
It’s about time? Late in the day Tuesday the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Biden administration is belatedly moving to put Yemen’s Houthi rebels back on the terrorist list.
Ironically it was Biden that removed the Houthis in the first place, as WSJ highlights: “The designation as a foreign terrorist organization, which the U.S. plans to formally announce on Wednesday, reverses a decision taken early in President Biden’s term to remove the Houthis from the list over concerns it hurt the prospects for peace talks and further crippled the economy of an impoverished nation at risk of famine.”
The Houthis were removed from the list in 2021 after they were first designated previously under the Trump administration, also given they have long been armed and backed financially by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Since last week, the US and UK-led coalition which also includes Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands have conducted several rounds of airstrikes and missile attacks against Houthi positions in Yemen.
The repeat Houthi attacks, which are now almost daily, have threatened to completely shut out commercial vessels from the vital Red Sea transitway.
The Houthis have claimed this is all part of the war against Palestinians, and their military operations are meant as retaliation against Israel and its most powerful backer the US.
“The international coalition that America announced under the pretext of protecting maritime navigation in the Red Sea is an alliance to protect the Israeli entity and to protect Israeli ships. It is an integral part of the aggression against the Palestinian people, Gaza, and the Arab and Islamic nations,” the group previously said in a statement.
The Saudi-UAE-US coalition has waged a brutal air war against Yemen and the rebel Houthis going back to 2015, unleashing a dire humanitarian crisis. It was during that time, especially when Washington was more deeply involved in helping Saudi pilots with targeting information, that the Houthis were first placed on the US terror list.
In light of everything that has happened over the past couple months regarding Houthi attacks on civilian vessels, it’s interesting to revisit Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s words in February of 2021:
Effective February 16, I am revoking the designations of Ansarallah, sometimes referred to as the Houthis, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under the Immigration and Nationality Act and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, as amended.
This decision is a recognition of the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen. We have listened to warnings from the United Nations, humanitarian groups, and bipartisan members of Congress, among others, that the designations could have a devastating impact on Yemenis’ access to basic commodities like food and fuel.
If the fresh WSJ reporting is confirmed, this will mark a somewhat unprecedented reversal which will see the same group go from a terror listing to being de-listed to being listed again—all within a matter of a few years.
end
US Conducts New ‘Preemptive Strikes’ On Houthi Launch Sites
TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 05:20 PM
On Tuesday US forces carried out another round of strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen, but this time the operation is being dubbed a “pre-emptive” attack that came in response to militants preparing missile launches on the ground in real time.
“US forces struck and destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles,” a Central Command (CENTCOM) statement saud. “These missiles were prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and presented an imminent threat to both merchant and US Navy ships in the region.”
Over the course of the prior day, two commercial ships were hit by Houthi missiles, including the Zografia, in an incident we detailed earlier.
US defense officials explained of this third significant wave of American strikes against the Houthis, per Politico:
The Tuesday attacks were on a much smaller scale and “dynamic” in nature, meaning they were not pre-planned and rather taken in self-defense against missiles that presented an imminent threat to international shipping, one of the officials said. All of the officials were granted anonymity to speak about a sensitive operation before an official announcement.
These Houthi launches targeting Red Sea transit are coming daily at this point, and so it’s very likely there will be many more counter-attacks to come from the Operation Prosperity Guardian coalition patrolling off Yemen. CENTCOM has has also continued upping its counter-Iran operations in regional waters, also as Tehran is believed to be supplying the Yemeni rebel group with weapons.
Shell plc multinational oil and gas company has been the latest to suspend tanker operations through the Red Sea.
In earlier analysis we explained how the number of commercial vessels that have transited the Red Sea/Suez Canal route has more than halved over the past month amid rising tensions off Yemen, but more than 100 ships, including oil tankers, have crossed the water lane since the US and UK navies advised operators on Friday to steer clear of the route.
A total of 114 commercial vessels — including oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships — have continued with their routes and transited into or out of the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to vessel-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.
The Houthis have declared war on Red Sea shipping in connection with Israel’s ongoing operation in Gaza. The White House has so far backed away from calling for permanent ceasefire, also as over 100 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas captivity…
While attending the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, national security adviser Jake Sullivan strongly suggested the region will soon see more US offensive strikes in Yemen. “We did not say when we launched our attacks, they’re gonna end once and for all,” he warned in the fresh remarks.
end
The secret Houthi plan to move missiles, drones beyond Red Sea – report
The Houthis have moved weapons toward the coast to expand their area of operations and target western navies operating in the area.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANJANUARY 17, 2024 16:11Updated: JANUARY 17, 2024 16:22
The Houthis may be repositioning some of their missiles and drones after US and UK airstrikes and also in order to present more challenges to shipping, a new report says.
Al-Ain media in the United Arab Emirates said it has learned from “Yemen military sources” about how the Houthis are moving their drones and other munitions to carry out attacks.
The Houthis are an Iranian-backed group that controls part of Yemen. Yemen also has an official government and other factions within the country.
New plan to attack international shipping
The report says that the sources revealed these details over the weekend.
“The Houthis’ arsenal is moving under cover of darkness.” This represents a “new plan” by the Houthis to carry out attacks against international shipping routes. These types of reports are worth examining because even if the claims are not verified, the report itself illustrates growing concerns in the region about Iranian-backed Houthi escalation.
US Central Command said on January 16 that the “US conducts strikes in Yemen as Houthi attacks against international shipping continue.”
That report noted that “earlier in the day at approximately, 4:15 a.m. (Sanaa time), US Forces struck and destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.”Advertisement
Repositioning of weapons in wake of US, UK strikes
The Al-Ain report says that the Houthis moved medium-range ballistic missiles and drones to the eastern highlands of Taiz governorate and to areas in southern Yemen.
“The sources added that the militias transported drones to the Al-Ahkoum Mountains and the highlands overlooking the ‘Taiz – Lahj – Aden’ line and set up their platforms, in preparation for their use against cargo ships in the Arab and Red Bahrain, the Gulf of Aden, and Bab al-Mandab.”This represents a repositioning of drones and missiles “in the wake of the American and British strikes that targeted dozens of militia targets.”
Now the Houthis have moved weapons toward the coast to expand their area of operations and target western navies operating in the area.
It comes “as part of a plan aimed at expanding the theater of operations from the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab to the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to observers.” One area is 130km from the Arabian Sea while the distance to the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab is 160km.
According to US Central Command on January 16, “Iranian-backed Houthi militants launched an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into international shipping lanes in the Southern Red Sea. M/V Zografia, a Maltese-flagged bulk carrier, reported they were struck but seaworthy and were continuing their Red Sea transit. No injuries were reported.”
The Al-Ain report meanwhile appeared to indicate that the Houthis may be considering launching missiles at ships that are not in the Red Sea, firing them over Aden.
The report claimed that this trajectory was reflected in the January 15 attack by the Houthis on the bulk carrier Gibraltar Eagle.
The report said that several missiles actually landed in Yemen, apparently due to malfunctions. They struck areas in Lahij near Aden, the Al-Ain report claimed.
The report indicates that the Houthis will seek to escalate attacks in new areas rather than directly confront the Americans.
Houthis could seek to expand attacks beyond the Red Sea
The assumption then is that the Houthis could begin attacking ships beyond the Red Sea. This would expand the threat to a huge swath of international waters off Yemen.
With some ships already diverting around Africa, this could present a new challenge to the US and other countries that have signed on to try to stop further Houthi attacks. The report also discusses how the Houthis have acquired weapons via smuggling.
Meanwhile, the attacks continue in the Red Sea. A Greek-owned bulk carrier was struck on Tuesday, the BBC noted.
In another incident, the US sought to search a small boat near Somalia that was allegedly carrying Iranian parts for missions for the Houthis. Two US Navy SEALs also went missing during the interdiction of the vessel. Iranian warheads were found on the vessel.
The Al-Ain report could reflect new serious information about the Houthis and their positioning of missiles and drones.
It could also reflect the wider regional concerns in the Gulf about the Houthis choosing to escalate. Either way, the report is important because it illustrates that the region is wondering what the Iran-backed Houthis will do next.
Iran’s attacks on Iraq and Pakistan this week show that Iran is more willing to throw its weight around. The Houthis attacks have continued and companies are wary to ship via the Red Sea or they are trying to distance themselves from any connection to the US, UK or Israel. This is a serious challenge for the West and the freedom of the seas.
Lt Richard Hecht
.END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
END
OTHER MEDICAL VACCINE INJURY/CANCER REPORTS
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Moody Blues, CODE ORANGE cancel tours; LeAnn Rimes has precancerous cells removed; CBS’s Boomer Esiason & Phil Simms “out sick”; soccer coach Sven-Goran Eriksson “battling pancreatic cancer”
Alabama head coach Nick Saban, 72, retiring due to “health issues”; wrestler Afa the Wild Samoan “recovering from pneumonia, two heart attacks”
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERJAN 17 |
The Moody Blues’ John Lodge Recovering From ‘Serious Medical Issue’
January 15, 2024
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
John Lodge, the bass guitarist and one of the primary singers and songwriters for the Moody Blues, is recuperating from what is described as a “serious medical issue” during the Christmas holiday. A January 11, 2024, post on hisFacebook page noted he is “already well on the mend.” However, the unidentified health issue has forced the postponement of his “Performs Days of Future Passed” U.S. tour that was planned for February and March.
CODE ORANGE Cancels Tour Due To Guitarist DOMINIC LANDOLINA’s ‘Serious Health Issues’
January 12, 2024
CODE ORANGE has canceled its previously announced headlining tour, along with other shows, due to “serious health issues” suffered by guitarist Dominic Landolina.
In a statement posted earlier today (Friday, January 12) on the band’s official social media channels, CODE ORANGE wrote: “It pains us deeply to announce that we are canceling our upcoming headline tour, as well as the ShipRocked cruise / Pulp Summer Slam around it.
“Our guitarist Dom has been dealing with serious health issues over the past year that have led to his inability to play, perform and live comfortably. While he gritted through our fall performances, his issues were exasperated by them. We wanted to give him proper time to heal before making a group decision, and were very hopeful he would be able to return by February. Ultimately it’s been determined that he is unable to play guitar at this time. We take this decision very seriously, and this is the last way we intended to start this era.
LeAnn Rimes Undergoes Surgery to Remove Precancerous Cells
January 15, 2024
LeAnn Rimes has revealed that she recently underwent a minor surgical procedure to address precancerous cervical cells following a long history of abnormal pap smears.
In a mid-January social media post, the “How Do I Live Star” explained her experience in detail, stating that she chose to share it as a reminder to all fans to take care of their health. “I think it’s an important reminder to get our annual screenings in order to catch changes that may be taking place within the body early on,” she wrote.
LeAnn Rimes Undergoes Surgery to Remove Precancerous Cells
LeAnn Rimes Suffers Vocal Cord Bleed, Postpones Shows: ‘I Am Devastated’
December 7. 2022
LeAnn Rimes will be forced to reschedule shows on her holiday tour due to a vocal injury stemming from an illness.
The singer shares a handwritten letter on social media, explaining to fans that she cannot sing or speak due to a “bleed” on her vocal cord. Thus, she must postpone concerts in Riverside, Iowa and Nashville, which were planned for Dec. 9 and 10.
LeAnn Rimes Suffers Vocal Cord Bleed, Postpones Shows
Two CBS NFL Anchors Fall Ill, Are MIA for Broadcasts
January 11, 2024
The NFL pregame show The NFL Today on CBS looked a little different on Sunday. Boomer Esiason and Phil Simms were absent from the show, and fans were wondering why they went on the show. Andrew Marchand of the New York Post said both Esiason and Simms are out sick.
According to The Sun, Esiason, 62, was not on any of the CBS NFL shows on Sunday. However, Simms, 68, appeared on one of the CBS NFL programs earlier in the morning during the pregame show but left shortly after. Before Simms left, he shared his thoughts on the Kansas City Chiefs’ chances of winning the Super Bowl or the second consecutive year.
Prayers For Famous Football Coach, 75, Whose Stroke Leads to Shocking Pancreatic Cancer Diagnosis
January 14, 2024
Popular soccer manager Sven-Goran Eriksson, 75, known for managing the “England” team, revealed he’s battling advanced pancreatic cancer after collapsing while running due to a stroke. Tests helped doctors discover his cancer.
Nick Saban Acknowledges That Health Issues Influenced His Decision To Retire
January 11, 2024
Following the shocking news that legendary Alabama head coach Nick Saban was retiring, many college football fans speculated as to why. Saban explained his reasoning to ESPN’s Chris Low and pointed to health worries as a major reason.
Afa the Wild Samoan recovering from pneumonia, two heart attacks
January 12, 2024
WWE Hall of Famer Afa the Wild Samoan (Afa Anoa’i) is in the hospital recovering from pneumonia and two heart attacks.
A message posted to Afa’s Facebook page on Friday informed fans that Afa was admitted to the hospital with pneumonia on Thursday night. Upon his arrival to the hospital, Afa suffered a mild heart attack. Afa then suffered a “second small heart attack” today.
https://www.f4wonline.com/news/wwe/afa-the-wild-samoan-recovering-from-pneumonia-two-heart-attacks
end
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
‘Cancer Is Striking More Young People, and Doctors Are Alarmed and Baffled Researchers are trying to figure out what is making more young adults sick, and how to identify those at high risk’
should we tell these killer doctors that its the vaccine, stupid, its vaccine; its the Malone, Sahin, Bourla, Bancel, Kariko, Weissman et al. mRNA technology underpinning gene based mRNA vaccine
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 16 |
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/cancer-young-people-doctors-baffled-49c766ed
‘Meilin Keen was studying for the bar exam and preparing to move to New York City last June when she started throwing up blood.
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Keen, 27 years old, learned days later that she has gastric cancer. She postponed the bar exam. Brain fog from chemotherapy made it hard to do her legal work.
Surgeons removed her stomach in December. Keen is coming to terms with all that means for her diet, her health, even her dating life. “That’s a fun icebreaker: I don’t have a stomach anymore,” she said.
Cancer is hitting more young people in the U.S. and around the globe, baffling doctors. Diagnosis rates in the U.S. rose in 2019 to 107.8 cases per 100,000 people under 50, up 12.8% from 95.6 in 2000, federal data show. A study in BMJ Oncology last year reported a sharp global rise in cancers in people under 50, with the highest rates in North America, Australia and Western Europe.
Doctors are racing to figure out what is making them sick, and how to identify young people who are at high risk. They suspect that changes in the way we live—less physical activity, more ultra-processed foods, new toxins—have raised the risk for younger generations.
“The patients are getting younger,” said Dr. Andrea Cercek, who co-directs a program for early-onset gastrointestinal cancer patients at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, where Keen was treated. “It’s likely some environmental change, whether it’s something in our food, our medications or something we have not yet identified.”’
END
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| WEF Calls for AI to Replace Voters: ‘Why Do We Need Elections?’World Economic Forum (WEF) founder and chairman Klaus Schwab has called for members of the general public to be excluded from election processes, arguing that voters could be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI).READ MORE |
| WEF Member Compares Free Speech to ‘Fascism,’ Demands Censorship of XDuring a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel discussion, Harvard Professor Naomi Oreskes compared free speech to “fascism” while demanding censorship of the public on social media.READ MORE |
| Rachel Maddow Suffers Meltdown over Trump’s Historic Victory in IowaCorporate media propagandist Rachel Maddow suffered a meltdown when President Donald Trump soared to a historic victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses Monday night.READ MORE |
| Fitness Influencer Dies Suddenly of Cardiac Arrest at 35A popular social media influencer has tragically died suddenly after suffering an unexpected cardiac arrest at just 35 years old.READ MORE |
| Illinois’ Democrat Gov Complains ‘Sanctaury Cities’ Are ‘Suffering’ from Texas’ Migrant BusesThe Democrat governor of Illinois, billionaire J.B. Pritzker, is complaining that so-called “sanctuary cities” are “suffering” from large numbers of migrants being bused there from border states such as Texas.READ MORE |
| Rand Paul: Fauci Should ‘Go to Prison’ Over Covid ‘Dishonesty’Republican Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has renewed his calls for former top federal health official Dr. Anthony Fauci to “go to prison.”READ MORE |
| Federal Court Strikes Down Biden’s Home Appliance RegulationsA federal court has just struck down some of Democrat President Joe Biden’s green agenda regulations for Americans’ home appliances.READ MORE |
| Top Trump Advisor Drops Big Revelation about VP PickOne of President Donald Trump’s top advisors has just dropped a big revelation about a potential running mate for the 45th POTUS.READ MORE |
| Trump Storms to Victory to Win 2024 Iowa Caucuses in Historic LandslidePresident Donald Trump won the 2024 Iowa Caucuses in a historic landslide, securing an unprecedented victory over his Republican primary “rivals.”READ MORE |
| ‘The Honeymooners’ Actress Joyce Randolph Dead at 99Actress Joyce Randolph, best known for her role as Trixie in “The Honeymooners,” has died at the age of 99. READ MORE |
| Speaker Johnson Calls for Firing of Federal Workers Who Walk Out on Jobs in Support of HamasSpeaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is calling for the firing of protesting federal workers who are reportedly planning to walk out on their jobs in support of Hamas.READ MORE |
| WEF Predicts Economic Doom for Coming YearThe World Economic Forum (WEF) is warning that leading economists are predicting global economic doom for the coming year.READ MORE |
| FBI Cites ‘Alt-Right Extremism’ after Arresting Transgender Would-Be Shooter Threatening to Kill ‘Transphobes’The FBI has arrested a radical transgender gunman after he threatened to go out in a “blaze of glory” by going on a shooting rampage to kill “transphobes.” READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| WHO Demands Global Meat Consumption Ban by 2025READ MORE… LATEST NEWS:Trump Says Free Jan. 6 ‘Hostages’ After No Arrests Made When Pro-Palestine Protest Turns ViolentRead more…WEF Warns Globalists: Trump Will Destroy ‘the Global Order’Read more…Iowa Entrance Poll: 68% Believe Biden Didn’t Legitimately Win ElectionRead more…JUST IN: Trump Responds After Massive Victory In Iowa CaucusesRead more…Iowa SHOCKS CNN: 68% of Voters Believe Joe Biden STOLE 2020 ElectionRead more…SORE LOSER? Team DeSantis Accuses Media of Election InterferenceRead more…Rachel Maddow Melts Down After Trump Wins Iowa: ‘The Rise Of Fascism’Read more…Joy Reid Melts Down That Iowa Contains So Many White ChristiansRead more… |
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICT
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
Demand for crude continues to skyrocket.
(OilPrice.com)
“They Are Snapping Oil From All Over The World”: China Taking Advantage Of Recent Slide In Oil Prices
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 03:30 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Incentivized by below $80 a barrel Brent oil prices, Chinese refiners are looking to import more crude to build up stocks at relatively low prices early this year, expecting strong demand for fuels in the latter part of 2024, analysts and trading sources told Reuters.
International oil prices and China’s crude import quota policies early this year have made refiners more certain of planning their purchases.
Brent Crude has traded below $80 a barrel since early December, having dropped from a 2023 high of $95 at the end of September.
In addition, China also issued early this month a massive batch of crude oil import quotas to refiners for 2024, raising the allowances from early last year by around 60% and allocating full-year quotas to some. The high volumes of import allowances are expected to give independent Chinese refiners better visibility on their plans to purchase crude oil throughout 2024.
So now refiners are looking to stock up on below-$80 crude early in the year in anticipation of a surge in fuel demand in the second half.
“Chinese refiners, led by Unipec, are moving quickly this month,” an oil trader at a Chinese refiner told Reuters.
“They snap oil from all over the world, except for the U.S. due to high freight rates.”
Higher rates have made U.S. crude more expensive for Asian refiners compared to the crude grades from the Middle Eastern producers.
So Asian buyers are turning to more Middle Eastern crude, especially after Saudi Arabia—the world’s top crude oil exporter—slashed the price of its crude for Asia for February loading by $2 per barrel to a premium of $1.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai prices, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude loading for Asia. That’s the lowest premium for Saudi crude over Oman/Dubai for 27 months—since November 2021.
It’s too early to assess China’s oil demand this year, after a mixed bag of economic data throughout last year. But higher Chinese crude oil imports in early 2024, when demand is typically weaker, could support international oil prices.
end
More Grid Trouble: Tennessee Valley Authority Asks Customers To Conserve Power Amid Cold Blast
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 09:15 AM
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has asked ten million customers to reduce power consumption for Wednesday morning as record heating demand is forecasted amid a cold blast.
Power supplies are tightening as demand surges this morning, with heating demand expected to spike across TVA’s region. It has asked customers to dial back power usage between 0600 to 1000 local time.
“Our power system remains stable with our generating plants operating as planned,” TVA CEO and President Jeff Lyash said in a video on Tuesday.
Lyash continued: “However, we do anticipate the highest peak demand for electricity in TVA history early Wednesday morning.”
TVA operates the largest public power grid and supplies power to Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeastern Mississippi, and southwestern Kentucky and in portions of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and southwestern Virginia.
“The temperatures will be what are driving the usage numbers on Wednesday morning, and so that’s where that’s where we can use some help from the public,” TVA Spokesperson Scott Brooks said.
As of late Tuesday, more than 220 million Americans are under “some kind of winter alert,” The Weather Channel posted on X.
More than half of the Lower 48 is covered in snow.
Another blast of cold air is expected at the end of this week.
Also, another winter storm.
The good news: Lower 48 average temps will rise above a 30-year average next week.
Besides TVA, Texas’ power grid (ERCOT) has been under pressure this week but was spared from collapse. However, we cited a new Bank of America report that revealed grid instabilities are here: “In the next five years, we’re going to see brownouts in major US cities, that’s the magnitude of what’s unfolding.”
END
Red Sea Conflict “Getting Worse, Not Better”, Forcing More Ship Detours Around Africa
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 11:45 AM
By Greg Miller of Freightwaves
U.S. and U.K. airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen have not made the Red Sea any safer for shipping. “Red Sea issues are getting worse, not better,” said Stifel shipping analyst Ben Nolan.
The dry bulk carrier Gibraltar Eagle, owned by Connecticut-based Eagle Bulk (NYSE: EGLE), was struck by an anti-ship ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden on Monday. The Greek-owned dry bulk carrier Zografia was hit by a missile in the southern Red Sea on Tuesday.
Energy shipper Shell halted all Red Sea transits on Tuesday, as did the big three Japanese tanker and bulker owners: MOL, NYK and K-Line.
Container-ship diversions around the Cape of Good Hope now appear likely to last for months. Spot rate gains from diversions will almost certainly extend into the period when 2023 annual trans-Pacific contracts are negotiated, pushing up contract rates.
The Red Sea effect on tanker trades remains uncertain, although a tipping point may be very near. If crude and product tankers divert away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the same extent as container ships, tanker spot rates should rise, because longer voyages would soak up tanker capacity.
Will tankers follow container ships around Cape?
“There has already been a sharp decline in container ships approaching the Gulf of Aden, which feeds into the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and there are likely to be major declines across other shipping segments as well in the coming weeks,” predicted Omar Nokta, shipping analyst of Jefferies, in a client note on Tuesday.
Ship-position data shows container transits down precipitously, tanker transits down modestly, and dry bulk transits down very little if at all.
Container-ship arrivals in the Gulf of Aden were at their lowest level on record last week, down 90% from the 2023 average, according to Clarksons Securities.
In contrast, bulk carrier arrivals in the Gulf of Aden were in line with the historical average, and tanker arrivals were down 20% versus 2022-2023 levels, according to Nokta, who cited Clarksons data.
According to data from commodity analytics group Kpler, the moving average of tanker transits of the Suez Canal had fallen to 14 per day as this week, the lowest level since May 2022 and down from an average of 22 per day a month ago.
In other words, there are detours on the tanker side, which are positive for rates, but still nothing close to what’s being seen in container shipping.
Potential for ‘widespread rerouting’ of tankers
“So far, most tanker owners remain unwilling to commit to a costly rerouting around the African Cape,” said ship brokerage BRS on Monday.
“Since the events of Friday [the beginning of coalition strikes in Yemen], shipping data implies that only a handful of tankers heading from east to west have definitely changed course away from the Red Sea. Most other tankers in the Middle East scheduled to head west appear to be delaying their passage.
“Accordingly, there remains the potential that widespread rerouting could occur over the coming days. If this were to take place, it would provide a significant injection of ton-miles [demand measured in volume multiplied by distance] into the market,” said BRS, which sees the highest potential rate upside for tankers carrying refined products from east to west.
Skyrocketing insurance premiums could tip the scales
Spiking insurance costs could ultimately tip the scales for tankers toward the Cape route, said Frode Mørkedal, shipping analyst at Clarksons Securities.
“War risk insurance premiums for ships have skyrocketed,” Mørkedal wrote in a client note on Monday, prior to the attacks on the Gibraltar Eagle and Zografia.
“In the past few weeks, premiums have increased from 0.1% normally to 0.5% of a ship’s hull value. With the escalation of tensions in the Red Sea, we would not be surprised if insurance premiums increase to 1% of the ship’s value.”
Mørkedal cited the example of a 10-year-old LR2 (Long Range 2) product tanker valued at $60 million. The premium is now $300,000, quintuple the usual $60,000. If premiums rose to 1% of hull value, the cost would jump to $600,000. And on top of insurance, the Suez Canal transit fee for an LR2 is around $500,000.
In comparison, the extra fuel cost of taking an LR2 around the Cape at 12 knots would be $250,000. “Shipowners and charterers may find that rerouting around Africa is more cost-effective than incurring the combined costs of Suez Canal transit fees and insurance premiums,” said Mørkedal.
Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd’s List, a publication that covers both shipping and insurance, wrote late Tuesday that Red Sea premiums have now risen to 1% of hull value, that a “tipping point has been reached,” and that further diversions of tankers and bulkers should be announced within the next 24 hours.
END
Container Lines Scramble To Rent More Ships Amid Red Sea Crisis
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 03:20 PM
By Greg Miller of FreightWaves
Red Sea diversions mean container lines need more ships to carry the same amount of cargo. The security situation — which is even more precarious in the near term due to coalition air strikes in Yemen — has already driven spot container freight rates much higher. Now it is starting to push up the price container lines pay to rent ships.
“This week saw a scramble for prompt tonnage,” said MB Shipbrokers (formerly Maersk Broker) in a market report on Friday, referring to ships that can be chartered immediately.
“Owners have certainly become more bullish and are pushing for higher-than-last-done levels in all segments and most regions.” Charter rates are headed higher, “specifically for short periods of three to six months’ duration,” said MB Shipbrokers.
Shipbroker Braemar reported Sunday: “Chartering activity [has] further improved. Various prompt vessels across all sizes and regions [are] seeing increased interest. Charter rates as well as periods are witnessing a firming trend.”
Analytics group Alphaliner commented on charter-market strength in a report last Tuesday, noting that the Red Sea effect is now “starting to show.”
“Despite a continued influx of newbuilding tonnage of all types, demand for most sizes of charter-market ships … remains strong. The crisis in the Red Sea, with most carriers now avoiding the area, is in part contributing to the market’s brisk activity,” said Alphaliner.
Spot freight rates rise much faster than charter rates
The initial diversions away from the Red Sea caused delays in return trips to Asia, prompting liners to charter ships for short terms as “extra loaders” to pick up the slack.
Now that diversions are more ensconced, liners will need to add additional vessels to service strings to maintain weekly schedules, given the longer voyage distance around the Cape of Good Hope.
To the extent newbuildings and existing fleets don’t fill the gap, they would need to charter or buy more ships.
The Harpex index, which measures six- to 12-month charter rates for ships with capacity of up to 8,500 twenty-foot equivalent units, has risen 12% since mid-December.
That pales in comparison to Red Sea-driven moves in freight rates. The global spot freight indexes of both Freightos and Drewry have more than doubled over the same stretch.
But 2024 was supposed to be a very weak year for charter rates given the tidal wave of newbuilding deliveries, and thanks to the Red Sea effect, the Harpex index is now 28% higher than it was in January 2019, pre-COVID.
“Obviously, a persistent crisis in the Red Sea and, to a lesser extent, ongoing problems at the Panama Canal could partially cushion the risk of overcapacity thanks to the demand for extra tonnage they will generate,” said Alphaliner.
Few container ships available to charter
The challenge in today’s chartering market is that there are very few vessels available to charter. Most of the tonnage is already tied up on long-term leases.
Liners were desperate for ships during the supply chain crisis. The more ships they controlled, the more containers they could carry at stratospheric freight rates, and the more profits they could reap.
The companies that charter ships to liners — so-called non-operating owners (NOOs) — could dictate the terms. Not only did NOOs demand historically high charter rates during the peak of the COVID-era boom, they also forced liners to take the ships on multi-year charters. Most of those leases are still in place.
Among the U.S.-listed NOOs, Danaos (NYSE: DAC) has 90% of its fleet already locked up on charters through the end of 2024. Charter coverage of Costamare (NYSE: CMRE) is 87% for 2024, with Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL) at 82% and Euroseas (NASDAQ: ESEA) at 70%.
Another source of chartered tonnage is “relets” — ships that liners have on long-term charter from NOOs that they opt to re-charter to other liners. But some of these relet opportunities are now being withdrawn, reported MB Shipbrokers.
In general, “the limited availability of prompt tonnage” is keeping chartering activity “at a low level,” it said.
Liner stocks up more than NOO stocks
Liner company stocks should benefit more from Red Sea disruptions than NOO stocks, given that freight rates have risen much faster than charter rates, and so many ships are already locked into existing leases.
Shares of liner operator Zim are up 65% from mid-December through Friday, with Hapag-Lloyd up 45% and Maersk up 19%. In contrast, shares of GSL are up only 9% over the same period, with Costamare rising 10% and Danaos 11%. Shares of Euroseas, which have the most open exposure to the 2024 charter market of the four companies, have performed the best, rising 37%.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
Robert H
The USA has already signalled that they will cut. Canada may have no choice
REUTERS: Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut
“The Canadian dollar’s decline slowed following the inflation figures. It was last 0.2% down on the day at 1.3455 per U.S. dollar.”
No rate cuts as it would further erode value
Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose as expected to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November, data showed on Tuesday, a sign of sticky inflation ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.
Read in Reuters: https://apple.news/ARad7EL3jRgeycRgihFFEIw
REUTERS: Canada’s December inflation dashes hopes of early rate cut
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0872 DOWN .0007
USA/ YEN 147.67 UP 0.452 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2678 UP .0041
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3522 UP .0032 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 32 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 60.37 PTS OR 2.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 589.08 PTS OR 3.71%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.32% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 589.02 PTS OR 3.71%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.37 PTS OR 2.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.32%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 164.43 OR 0.40%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2027.30
silver:$22.81
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103,19 UP 7 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.021% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.605% UP 1 AND 4//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.237UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.911 UP 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2785 UP 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0861 DOWN 0.0008 or 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.33 UP 1.093 OR YEN DOWN 109 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2666 UP .0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.3513
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1962
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2282)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.14 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.605…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.100% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.313 UP 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.346 UP 12 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 117.76 PTS OR 1.56%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 156.05 PTS OR 0.94%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 81.10 PTS OR 1.10%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 127.50 PTS OR 1.28%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 261.34 PTS OR 0.80%
WTI Oil price 71.81 12: EST
Brent Oil: 77.31 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.95; ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 11//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2785 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.995 UP 19 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0872 DOWN .0006 0.0006 OR 6 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2676 UP .0038 or 38 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.018% UP 17 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.598%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148,25 UP 1.008//YEN DOWN 101 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3528 UP 0.0036 CDN dollar DOWN 36 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 72.75
Brent OIL: 77.96
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.104%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.310%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 14 PTS AT 4.346%
USA dollar index: 103.22 UP 11 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.13 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.95 UP 1 AND 10/100 roubles
GOLD 2005.15 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.53 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 94.32 PTS OR 0.25%
NASDAQ DOWN 94,43 PTS OR 0.56%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.42 UP 1.08 PTS 7.80%
GLD: $185.84 DOWN 2.07 OR 1.10%
SLV/ $20.65 DOWN .31 OR 1.48%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
‘Good News Is Bad News’ As Goldilocks Reality-Check Wrecks Dovish Dreams
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Retail sales – strong; Housing – homebuilder optimism jumped; Industrial Production – better than expected.
‘Real’ economic data is rising once again as ‘soft’ survey data collapses (Empire Fed anyone?)…
Source: Bloomberg
Nothing there screams “six rate-cuts or we all die” as the issue remains: the current growth trajectory of the economy does not suggest that rates need to come down at all.
And as this growth/rates tango persists, yields on 10-year Treasuries are creeping higher (up 4bp today to 4.10%), putting pressure on risk assets that are priced relative to rates.
Today’s strong data, along with last week’s slightly higher than expected inflation report may suggest to some that rate cuts may not be as necessary as urgently as markets have been pricing.. and Waller’s comments yesterday pre-inforced that.
Sure enough, rate-cut expectations (timing and size) are tumbling…
Source: Bloomberg
The big drop in rate-cut expectations prompted bond yields to surge higher at the short-end. The entire curve was higher in yields with a major bear flattener (30Y +1bps, 2Y +13bps today)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y Yield extended its spike back above 4.00% today and closed above its 200DMA for the first time since 12/12/23…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) flattened back into inversion today…
Source: Bloomberg
Higher-rates hammered hot stocks as growthy-stuff and crappy-stuff was dumped. Nasdaq and Small Caps lagged, The Dow was the least ugly cow in the abattoir but still lower. A late-day bounce put a bit of lipstick on the pg but still not a pretty day…
MAG7 dumped at the open and never recovered, falling back to unchanged YTD…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks dumped at the open… and went lower – no bounce at all!
Source: Bloomberg
This is the second-worst start to a year for ‘most shorted’ stocks in history (2016 was worse)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continued in a narrow range since the chaos of last week’s spot ETF launch…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended its ‘up and to the right’ ramp this week. This is now the dollar’s best start to a year since 2015.
Source: Bloomberg
And as the dollar rallied, so gold declines…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil was higher – for a change – with WTI bouncing off $71 back into its YTD range once again…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, never forget the ‘twin peaks’ of the ’70s…
Source: Bloomberg
Does Powell really want to be the guy who executed a massive rate-cutting cycle in an election year only to see what is left of The Fed’s credibility utterly destroyed when inflation comes roaring back.
END
MORNING TRADING//
end
AFTERNOON TRADING
II USA DATA
Retail Sales Surged In 2023 Led By Autos & Food Services, Gas Station Sales Slumped
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 08:41 AM
If BofA is right – and they usually have been – this morning’s Retail Sales print will be a huge beat and provide more questions for those thinking about rate-cuts and soft landings…
After an unexpectedly large rise in November, December saw a 0.6% MoM rise (hotter than the expected 0.4%, but less than BofA’s surge expectations). That is the biggest jump since September and lifted the YoY change to +5.6% – its hottest since Jan 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
On a MoM basis, Gasoline Stations and Personal Healthcare stores saw sales decline while Motor Vehicle sales surged…
Source: Bloomberg
Both headline and core retail sales re-acclerated – ending up 5.6% YoY in 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Gasoline Stations and Building Materials were the only segment that saw retail sales lower in 2023 with motor vehicles and Food Services up most…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal – i.e. not adjusted for inflation. So is this just a reflection of falling gas prices and soaring food prices?
Certainly doesn’t help the Goldilocks narrative.
END
Capacity utilization hits two year lows and downward revisions in Dec. industriral production
(zerohedge)
Capacity Utilization Hits 2-Year-Low As Downard-Revisions Flatter December Industrial Production
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 09:30 AM
US Industrial Production was expected to decline modestly (-0.1% MoM) in December but instead surprised to the upside with a small 0.1% MoM rise, flattered by a downwardly revised -0.03% change in November (from a +0.2% rise initial print) which helped push industrial production up around 1% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
Manufacturing production rose 0.1% MoM in December (better than the unch expected) but again that was flattered by a downward revision in November. This pushed manufacturing up 1.2% on a year-over-year basis but overall, manufacturing output declined 2.2% (annual rate) in the fourth quarter.
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output declined 0.1 percent in December and 0.3 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter.
In December, the index for durable manufacturing fell 0.4 percent, while the index for nondurable manufacturing rose 0.6 percent. The index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) declined 1.1 percent.
Within durables, declines of more than 1 percent were recorded by wood products, by fabricated metal products, by machinery, and by electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Motor vehicles and parts as well as furniture and related products posted gains of more than 1 percent.
Auto production has almost recovered to its pre-strike levels…
Within nondurables, most industries registered gains with the exception of paper and of printing and support.
In December, mining output increased 0.9 percent, and the output of utilities decreased 1.0 percent. For the fourth quarter, the output of mines fell 3.4 percent (annual rate) after increasing in the previous two quarters. The index for utilities dropped 8.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter after jumping over 15 percent in the previous quarter.
Capacity Utilization dropped to its lowest since Sept 2021 at 78.6%…
Source: Bloomberg
Q4 closed with the lowest quarter-end industrial production since Q1 2022 and biggest QoQ decline since the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
Hardly the soft-landing everyone hoping for…
end
According to Mises,private sector job growth is being replaced by Government sectorjob growth..
(Mises/McMaken)
Recession Signal: Private-Sector Job Growth Is Being Replaced By Gov’t-Sector Job Growth
TUESDAY, JAN 16, 2024 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,
Over the past two years, the Biden administration has repeatedly insisted that job growth is amazing, and that the administration has “created” millions of jobs.
In reality, of course, much of the job growth that did exist was the predictable job growth that came with the end of forced business closures and lockdowns. Job growth was also fueled by rising aggregate demand fueled by runaway growth in government spending. After all, during 2020 and 2021, the regime’s easy money policies meant that the central bank and private banks created approximately seven trillion dollars during that period.
Since early 2021, however, the job growth we’re seeing has been increasingly fueled by growth in government-sector jobs. In other words, the job growth we do see in the government sector does not represent the result of private investment, saving, or demand. It’s not organic economic growth. Rather, these government positions are positions that only exist as the result of wealth transferred from the private sector to the government sector.
Government-funded jobs are not drivers of growth. They are obstacles to growth, as stated by Ludwig von Mises:
…there is need to emphasize the truism that a government can spend or invest only what it takes away from its citizens and that its additional spending and investment curtails the citizens’ spending and investment to the full extent of its quantity.
Looking at month-to-month job growth since 2021, the graph shows government jobs as a percentage of all new job growth (according to the establishment survey.) This has accelerated over the past six months as government job growth has comprised from 21 percent to 58 percent over that period. Indeed, over the past year, from December 2022 to December 2023, private sector jobs grew at half the pace of government jobs, with private sector payrolls rising 1.5%. During that time, government payrolls increased 3 percent.
The relationship between government jobs and private sector jobs also can also indicate approaching recessions in many cases.
Here is a graph that shows year-over-year growth in private sector jobs (gray) and government jobs (red), each as a proportion of all job growth. We can see how in numerous cases, the portion of all jobs that is private tends to deteriorate as recessions approach. For example, as the 1991-1992 recession, approached, we see that new government jobs became a larger and larger share of all new jobs during 1990 and 1991.
Government jobs made up about 20 percent of all new job growth in early 1990, but by December of that year, government jobs has provided about half of all new job growth. We can clearly see a similar trend with the lead up to the great recession: private-sector jobs began to collapse as early as late 2006 even though government job creation continued to buoy overall job growth in that period.
During times of strong economic growth, we find that government jobs rarely comprise more than twenty percent of all new jobs.
Since September of this year, however, government jobs has taken up more than twenty percent of all new jobs in each month. In December, government jobs reached 24.9 percent of all new jobs.
That’s the largest proportion since the covid panic in March 2020.
Daniel Lacalle has said that the United States is in the midst of a “private sector recession.” What he means is aggregate numbers can still show good economic trends—such as job growth—while the private sector is stagnating or shrinking. That is, if government spending and government job creation is robust enough, it will mask private sector weakness in the aggregate statistics.
That may be the trend we are facing right now. The job growth we do see is increasingly being driven by government spending, and not by private investment. Even worse, the government spending we see is largely deficit spending, meaning the economic “good news” is reliant on massive amounts of new government debt.
END
The powerful blackstone BREIT record worst annual performance since inception
(zerohedge)
Blackstone’s Flagship BREIT Records Worst Annual Performance Since Inception
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 07:45 AM
The Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) recorded its lowest annual return since its inception in 2017, with a .5% loss in 2023. This shows that Blackstone’s flagship real estate trust for high-net wealth investors was not immune to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle and a commercial real estate downturn.
In a recent shareholder update, Blackstone told investors, “We built BREIT as an all-weather strategy designed to build long-term wealth across market cycles. We are pleased that BREIT has delivered an 11% annualized net return since inception seven years ago (January 1, 2017).”
Nonetheless, the past year’s sharp increase in interest rates, regional bank meltdowns, and a downturn in the commercial real estate market have ended that era (for now). This shift led to a slight loss (.5%) last year, following returns of 8.4% in 2022 and over 30% in 2021.
BREIT’s performance also severely lagged behind 26% returns of the S&P500. The fund’s net asset value is around $62 billion.
Meanwhile, Blackstone has limited investor redemption requests for more than a year. It has returned $14.3 billion of investor cash since November 30, 2022, according to a shareholder letter earlier this month. The good news is that a backlog in redemption requests has been easing recently.
Bloomberg noted, “Blackstone had enlisted interest-rate hedges to mitigate the pain from soaring borrowing costs. The firm said in a memo that even if there might be some immediate sting, sustained lower rates will lift real estate values across the fund’s portfolio.”
END
Why not? Biden has destroyed everything else!
Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk
Biden Weighs Banning Natural Gas Exports To Save The Climate
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 01:45 PM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
The climate fear-mongers are pressuring Biden to ban natural gas exports. Let’s discuss the ramifications.
Climate Test for Natural Gas Exports
Politco notes Biden’s Aides Weigh Climate Test for Natural Gas Exports.
The Biden administration is launching a review that could tap the brakes on the booming U.S. natural gas export industry — a move that threatens to pit the president’s climate ambitions against his foreign policy agenda.
The review being led by the Department of Energy will examine whether regulators should take climate change into account when deciding whether a proposed gas export project meets the national interest, according to two people familiar with the action who were granted anonymity to discuss deliberations that have not yet been publicly acknowledged.
U.S. gas exports have jumped four-fold during the past decade as production has surged, turning the United States into the world’s largest natural gas exporter and helping Europe replace Russian shipments after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. But Biden also faces growing pressure from environmental groups to live up to his pledge to transition away from fossil fuels — something the U.S. also promised to do at last month’s climate summit in Dubai.
Roishetta Ozane, the founder of environmental group Vessel Project of Louisiana, welcomed the news that the Biden administration may be rethinking how it determines whether a proposed project is in the public interest. Ozane is among a group of green activists planning to protest next month at the Energy Department headquarters to pressure the administration to change how it evaluates export proposals.
“We’re really hoping that DOE will pause any new permits for industry, because we know that the Biden administration really needs a climate win and in order for them to win” the 2024 election, said Ozane, whose hometown of Sulphur, La., is within an hour’s drive of three LNG plants. “If these politicians want to be elected or re-elected in this upcoming presidential election, they’re going to have to make some bold choices and some bold moves.”
Democrats have been asking the Biden administration for months to consider how shipping massive amounts of natural gas overseas affects greenhouse gas emissions. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) asked Granholm in a letter last year to review how DOE weighs whether a project is in the public interest.
Democratic Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith said it was a mistake to ignore the pollution produced by the LNG sector.
Climate Win For Biden?
“We know that the Biden administration really needs a climate win and in order for them to win.”
The public is more than a bit sick of the policies of this administration. Banning natural gas exports would hurt Biden’s elections chances.
Biden Threat
Natural Gas Math
91.2 million tons * 0.005367 MMBtu/ton * $10/MMBtu = $48.8 billion. If we look at oil exports (back of the napkin math) 3.99 million b/d (avg) * $80/barrel (avg 2023)* 365 days = $110.5 billion. That seems like a lot of revenue for a country $34T in debt to stifle…just saying.
But what is this really about?
Banning LNG exports would tend to lower prices.
My Guess
Biden will not want to give Trump another energy card.
Nor will he want to risk Pennsylvania.
Addendum
One of my readers noted a point I failed to mention: Russia will sell more natural gas as a result.
Bingo: Reducing exports does not change global demand. It will only shift the source of the supply.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report January 17, 2024 Issue 7160 | Independent View of the News |
| Goldman Sachs notches worst annual profit in four years, 24% drop from 2022 The bank reported net income of $8.5 billion for 2023 — a 24% drop from 2022… Year over profit increased 51% to $2.01 billion… Goldman’s quarterly revenue jumped 7% year over year to $11.32 — a number that beat the $10.8 billion analysts had predicted… One bright spot was the bank’s asset and wealth management division — a group Goldman has focused on building up — which saw revenue jump 23%. Goldman stock jumped nearly 2% at the market open… https://t.co/kgr4XkehG1 Goldman Beats Estimates Despite Dire FICC, Investment Banking and Net Interest Income Results While net income for the full-year 2023 fell 24% to $8.5BN, the lowest level since 2019, as full-year revenue dipped 2% to $46.3BN “reflecting lower net revenues in Global Banking & Markets, largely offset by higher net revenues in Platform Solutions and Asset & Wealth Management”… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-beats-estimates-despite-dire-ficc-investment-banking-and-net-interest-income Fed’s Waller sees rate cuts this year, but nothing ‘rushed’ https://t.co/iCIP7cQKKY Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Suffers Biggest 2-Month Collapse (Ex-COVID) In History The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January crashed from -14.5 to -43.7 – the worst print in the survey’s history outside of the COVID lockdowns… New orders slumped more than 38 points to minus 49.4, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments dropped by the most since August. Worse still, the index of prices paid for materials increased to a three-month high… (+9.1 in Nov.) https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/empire-fed-manufacturing-survey-suffers-biggest-2-month-collapse-ex-covid-history USHs traded moderately lower during early Nikkei trading. They sank further near 19:35 ET and then traded sideways, in a tight range, until the trading range expanded modestly after the 8 ET US bond market opening. Near 9 ET, USHs declined further. They range traded until Fed Governor Waller debunked the March rate cut and six rate cuts in 2024 narratives. Bloomberg Headlines at 11:00 ET on Waller’s speech at a Brookings event Waller: Need More Info Confirming Inflation Moving Down to Goal Waller: When Cuts Begin, Should Be Methodical and Careful Waller: No Reason to Move as Quickly, Cut as Rapidly as in Past Waller: Fed Can Cut ‘This Year’ if Inflation Doesn’t Rebound Waller also said he agrees with the median projection from Fed officials for 3 rate cuts in 2024. @zerohedge: Goldman: “Comments by Governor Waller today raise the risk that the first cut could come later than our forecast of March and that the pace of cuts could be quarterly from the outset, rather than our forecast of three initial consecutive cuts followed by a switch to quarterly.” USHs sank to a low of 120 27/32, -2 1/32, at 13:00 ET. After a modest bounce, USHs traded sideways. ESHs opened modestly lower on Monday night. They then proceeded to decline sharply until they hit 4785.25 at 5:29 ET. ESHs then rallied to 4805.50 at 9:31 ET. The dump for the NYSE open began on the opening; ESHs sank to 4784.25 at 9:52 ET. The usual suspects then aggressively bought ESHs, driving them to 4815.75 at 11:19 ET. Sellers reappeared, ESHs sank to 4787.00 at 12:58 ET. After a bounce to 4801.25 at 13:29 ET, ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 4779.50 at 14:18 ET. ESHs then rallied to 4794.00 at 15:00 ET and then traded in a tight range until they broke lower at 15:30 ET. The late manipulation began four minutes later; ESHs hit 4799.75 at 16:00 ET. @bespokeinvest: Rates up, Russell down. The 20+ Year Treasury ETF TLT and the small-cap Russell 2,000 are both down about 6% since December 27th. Apple slips (1.2%) after offering rare iPhone discounts in China https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-slip-earnings-roll-tesla-apple-slide-2024-01-16/ Federal judge blocks JetBlue purchase of Spirit Airlines, following DOJ antitrust challenge https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/federal-judge-blocks-jetblue-purchase-spirit-airlines-following-doj-antitrust Positive aspects of previous session Commodities, ex-energy, declined sharply A late rally truncated equity losses Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered; stocks declined sharply until the late manipulation truncated losses Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is vexing Mr. Bond? It must be more than Waller’s remarks. First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4765.30 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4782.34; 4747.12 @Barchart: Chinese Stocks fell to a new 5-year low today of 3260.44 and have now declined more than 44% since the high on February 15, 2021. https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1747336060101652829 Iran targets Pakistan with missile attack, third country in 24 hours Iran said Tuesday it launched attacks targeting what it deems as bases for the Jaish al-Adl militant group in Pakistan… https://justthenews.com/government/security/iran-targets-third-country-24-hours-missile-attack @NBCNewsWorld: A team of Navy SEALs that lost two sailors overboard while searching a small boat off the coast of Somalia went on to find suspected Iranian missile parts believed bound for Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, U.S. officials tell @NBCNews. @SonofHas: I don’t think people grasp how big of a deal this is. Biden used SEALs. Meaning it was a surgical op, planned ahead of time, and meant to AVOID public attention. His refusal to openly oppose Iran might’ve just killed two SOF members. House probe starts after $127M in bailout funds paid to dead Teamsters’ pension plan https://trib.al/xZ1yNkK Chase closed my bank account and canceled my credit cards without warning – I thought it was a scam but I was dead wrong https://www.the-sun.com/money/9717975/chase-closed-customer-account/ NYT: Banks Are Closing Customer Accounts, With Little Explanation Increasing attention to suspicious-seeming transactions has led to some people suddenly losing access to their bank accounts. The reasons are often a mystery… (Per a web search, this seems to be endemic!) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/your-money/bank-account-suspicious-activity.html Today – Instead of rallying for the first week of 2024, stocks declined. The rally for earnings reporting season has so far lasted for two sessions (January 8 & 9). Bond yields have been rising since December 27. At this point, we don’t know if the reasons for financial asset weakness in January is political, geopolitical, economic, financial, or a new reality about 2024 Fed rate hikes. Therefore, it’s time to be lighten up and get cautious. Prudence demands a wait and watch stance. The best chance for a meaningful rally could be next week. NFLX begins Fang reporting season on January 23 (Tuesday). MSFT and Tesla report on January 24. Expected Economic Data: Dec Retail Sales 0.4% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.2%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; Dec Import Price Index -0.5% m/m & -2.0% y/y, Export Price Index -0.7% m/m & -0.7% y/y; Dec Industrial Production 0.0% m/m, Mfg. Production 0/0%, Cap Utilization 78.7%; Nov Business Inventories -0.1% m/m; Jan NAHB Housing Market Index 39; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Fed Govs Barr & Bowman 9 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 15:00 ET ESHs are -1.25; USHs are -5/32; and Feb AU is -0.50 at 19:25 ET. We are transmitting this missive earlier than usual due to a scheduled maintenance for our distributor. Dec PPI 0.1% m/m & 1.3% y/y; Core 0.2% m/m & 2.0% y/y; Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 10:00 ET Expected earnings today: USB .93, DFS 2.53 S&P Index 50-day MA: 4601; 100-day MA: 4477; 150-day MA: 4470; 200-day MA: 4389 DJIA 50-day MA: 36,120; 100-day MA: 35,107; 150-day MA: 34,892; 200-day MA: 34,540 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4512.77 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4707.12 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4796.38 triggers a buy signal Art dealer told Congress that Joe Biden called and met him while he sold Hunter Biden’s paintings Berges also says first son made unusual request to know the identity of buyers, undercutting White House’s narrative. https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/tueart-dealer-told-congress-joe-biden-called-met-him-while-he-sold @RNCResearch: Biden called a “lid” shortly after 10:00 a.m. today. He has held just four public events over the past 25 days — and spent the rest of the time on vacation or doing nothing… https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1747294600241263048?s=02 Trump crushes DeSantis and Haley in Iowa as historic comeback picks up steam… scores best showing in contested Iowa caucus in GOP history, winning by about 30 points… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/trump-catapults-historic-comeback-resounding-win-iowa Trump’s lobsided victory was even more impressive than the final results because Dems ran a scheme to get registered Dems to switch to the GOP to vote for Nikki Haley. Bill Ackman warns Democrats after landslide Iowa caucus win that ‘Trump is going to crush Biden’ https://trib.al/JilobJz MSNBC Hosts Denounce White Christians as Racist and Pledge to Censor Trump After Iowa Win In an early glimpse of what to expect from coverage of this election, MSNBC and CNN hosts went into full rage mode with the Iowa caucus results. MSNBC host Joy Reid led this effort by declaring that “White Christians” are racists who want minorities to “bow down” to them… Reid’s colleague MSNBC Host Rachel Maddow censored Trump’s victory speech and said that the network would not allow viewers to hear him because he said “untrue things.” MSNBC would allow viewers to hear the victory speeches of anyone it deems as speaking truthfully about political issues. Much like our politics, our media often seems captured by the most extreme elements of our society. It explains why the media is now at an all-time low in terms of trust… https://jonathanturley.org/2024/01/16/msnbc-host-iowa-proves-white-christians-are-racists-who-want-minorities-to-bow-down-to-them/ @ggreenwald: The massive and historic size of Trump’s victory should lead to some self-reflection about what caused the complete collapse of faith in the legitimacy of US institutions of authority and justice, whereby voters so easily disregard 4 felony cases as irrelevant if not an asset. The DJT-despising FT: Donald Trump’s win in Iowa shows his appeal is expanding beyond his base https://on.ft.com/3RTfIgo Vivek Ramaswamy drops out of GOP presidential race after Iowa caucus and endorses Trump https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/vivek-ramaswamy-drops-out-presidential-race-after-iowa-caucus-and Dr. Drew warns of ‘extremely worrisome’ marijuana study findings that link cannabis use with psychotic states https://trib.al/ZYN7gry | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
