JAN 18//GOLD CLOSED UP $14.85 TO $2018.85/SILVER CLOSED UP $0.13 TO $22.70//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $20.90 TO $908.50 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $23/80 TO $944.75/ISRAEL VS HAMAS//WEST BANK UPDATES//HOUTHIS , IRAN VS WEST AND NOW PAKISTAN VS IRAN//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES/DR P ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA ECONOMIC UPDATES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $40,926 DOWN 1784 dollars
Platinum price closing $908.50 UP $20.90
Palladium price; $944.75 UP $23.80
END
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
190 H BMO CAPITAL 10 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 159 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 31 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 963 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10 661 C JP MORGAN 738 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 6 25 905 C ADM 12 7
TOTAL: 981 981
JPMorgan stopped 738.981 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 981 NOTICES FOR 98,100 OZ or 3.051 TONNES
total notices so far: 4459 contracts for 445,900 oz (13.869 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 65000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 778 for 3,890,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $14.85
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : /HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A WEITHDRAWAL OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 13 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 432.951 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 447 CONTRACTS TO 132,403 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.38 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A LITTLE LONG LIQUIDATION, AND FEW SPEC SHORT COVERING. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A GOOD 867 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 867CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.38), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE 1180 CONTRACT GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG SIZED 650 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.5525 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.5525 MILLION OZ
//TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 465 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 83CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 9222 contracts: OR 46.110 MILLION OZ (768 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46.110MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24: 46.110 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 447CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 650 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.525 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 6.525 MILLION OZ/
NEW STANDING 6.525 million OZ /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1097OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 867CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (867) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7266 CONTRACTS TO 482,068 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – removed 323 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 7,266 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $23.25 LOSSIN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 73,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 13.993 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $23.25 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1262 OI CONTRACTS (3,925)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6004CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,068
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1262 CONTRACTS WITH 7266 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 6004EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1262 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 3898CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6004CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (7266) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1262 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 73,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 13.993 TONNES. / 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERINGS// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3898CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 44,505 CONTRACTS OR 4450,500OZ OR 138,43 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3708 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 138.43 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 138.43/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 138.43 TONNES (WILL EQUAL LAST MONTH’S ISSUANCE OR A LITTLE GREATER)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 447CONTRACTS OI TO 132,403 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 650 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 447 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1097CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 5.485 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.17 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 114.89 PTS OR 0.75% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 11.58 OR 0.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.42% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1937 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2167 /Oil UP TO 72.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 77.80/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7,266 CONTRACTS TO 482,068 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $23.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE MAJOR LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS AT THE LOWER PRICES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 6004 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 6004 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6004CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1262 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6004LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 7266 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $23.25 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 3,898 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (13.993 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 13.993 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $23.25) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF1262 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 2.920PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 73,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (2.295 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 11.698 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $27.75
WE HAD – REMOVED 323 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1262 CONTRACTS OR 126,200 OZ OR 3.925 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 189,546 poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 293,206 strong t.a.s. induced
ASAHI JPMORGAN MALCA includes 27909 kilobars/JPMorgan.
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
981 notice(s) 98,100 OZ 3.051 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
40 contracts 4000 oz 0.1244 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4459 notices 445,900 oz 13.869 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 3
i)out of ASAHI: 4047.175 oz
ii) Out o JPMorgan: 87,097.059 oz (2709 kilobars)
iii) Out of Malca: 10,513.377 oz
total withdrawals 101,657.611 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1021 contracts having GAINED 711 contracts. We had 27 notices served on Wednesday, so we gained 738 contracts or an additional 73,800 oz will stand for delivery at the comex
FEB LOST 14,592 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 213,797
March GAINED 64 contracts to stand at 587.
APRIL GAINED 6209 CONTRACTS RISING TO 201,501.
We had 981 contracts filed for today representing 98,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 981 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 738 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4459 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (1021 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 981 x 100 oz per contract equals 449,900 OZ OR 13.993 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN.contract month: No of notices filed so far (4459) x 100 oz + (1021) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (981) x 100 oz) which equals 449,900oz standing OR 13.993 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 13.993 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,990,691.683 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,237,397.739 (287,32 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,753,292.944 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,762,715 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 241.45 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 18/INITIAL
//2024// THE JAN 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
596,460.080 oz
ASAHI Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
13 CONTRACT(S) (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
327 contracts (1,635,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
778 Contracts (3,890,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.923 million oz/280.375 million or 47.097%
adjustment 274,474.70 oz adjusted from dealer to customer//vault Manfra
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of ASAHI: 595,483.480 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 980.600 oz
total withdrawal: 596,464.180 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 41.989 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 280.375 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 340 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 13 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX
FEB GAINED 27 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 845
MARCH GAINED 81 CONTRACTS TO 102,037
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for 65,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 45,543//fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 54,926 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 778 x 5,000 oz = 3,890,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (340) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC/2023 contract month: 778 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (340) – number of notices served upon today (13 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 5.525 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.525 million oz/
New total standing: 6.525 million oz.
There are 41.989 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 862.10 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 432.951 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Ballooning Credit & Rate Cuts: A Perfect Storm For Default
With consumer debt reaching record levels, the Federal Reserve contemplating rate cuts in 2024, and post-Covid inflation still yet to reach its peak, a storm is indeed brewing.
Price increases on essential goods like food, housing, and fuel are hitting hard for Average Americans. But in its policy to avoid economic reality as much as possible, the Fed’s CPI numbers don’t account for factors such as consumers buying cheap alternatives instead of the name brands that they used to easily afford.
Acting as de facto PR agencies for Federal Reserve monetary policy, some media outlets are claiming that Americans are making headway on their debts, it’s just that higher inflation is obscuring all their great progress.
“When you adjust for inflation to compare this number to past years, our current credit card debt total is actually 15% lower than the highest number in 2008.”
According to that analysis, crippling price increases are causing consumers to take on more loans, but the debt only seems too high because each dollar is worth so much less now than it was 15 years ago. Unfortunately, the economy is now so irreparably distorted that these perceptions of economic pseudo-reality have become the norm. Increasingly severe mental gymnastics are required to continue justifying the position that consumer debt has reached anything but utterly unsustainable levels.
Meanwhile, trillions printed during Covid are still in the economy, meaning inflation will only get worse as Powell waves his magic wand to cut rates in the hopes of “stimulating growth.” If you believe that more debt automatically equals more growth, then Powell might be right. But the real result will be higher prices at the store, more consumer debt, and more previous debts left unpaid. According to a Bankrate survey, over 50 million Americans are carrying credit card balances for an entire year and then some, and other numbers show that around half of consumers are carrying balances from month-to-month.
“Total credit card balances hit a high of $1.08 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — a figure that is up $48 billion over the quarter and $154 billion over the year. Interest on this debt is also increasing, with the Federal Reserve reporting the average APR for revolving credit at 22.77 percent as of the third quarter.”
One has to wonder if maybe consumer defaults are the goal. Perhaps “economic growth,” in the Fed’s eyes, really means crashing it all so that more assets like real estate can be owned by parasitic megabanks. However, the simpler explanation is that backed into a corner with so few weapons in their arsenal to meaningfully stabilize prices or get debt under control, there isn’t much else that the Fed can do other than more of the same.
Delinquencies are already at their highest point in about a decade, and the notion that these debt-addicted spenders are going to borrow less rather than more appears quite unlikely in 2024. Lower interest rates will be too tempting when cash-strapped consumers are already struggling more than ever just to afford rice and beans:
As Peter Schiff tweeted on January 11th, there’s unfortunately no end in sight for consumers who are already borrowing just to finance basic needs.
“Americans continue to borrow to buy things that they don’t earn enough money to afford, and all that means (is) more upward pressure on prices — the Fed has done too little, too late…we’re running a trillion dollars in debt every quarter.”
But if the job numbers pick up, maybe consumers can afford more expensive survival needs and finally start paying down those debts…right? Not so fast. 2023 was a big year for layoffs, especially in an overly-frothy tech industry suffering further disruption by AI. And ResumeBuilder.com’s recent survey found that almost half of companies are anticipating more job cuts in 2024.
The only question left is when we’ll reach the debt event horizon that sucks the economy into a black hole of runaway inflation and cascading defaults. If the Fed is good at one thing, it’s kicking the can down the road — but at some point, that road leads to a cliff, and from there, there’s nowhere left to go but into the void.
END
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
Mathew Piepenburg…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1937
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2167
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.17 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 114.89 PTS OR 0.75%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 11.55 PTS OR 0.03%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.18 EURO RISES TO 1.0876 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.641 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.94/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2835***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.885** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.253…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.37
3j Gold at $2012.45 silver at: 22.56 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.73//
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 77 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,94// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.641% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8670 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9429 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.097 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.314 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.329 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.15…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 2 BASIS PTS AT 3.9585
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge.
Futures Rebound Amid Whispers Of Relief Rally As China Plunge Protection Team Steps In
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 08:17 AM
Global stocks and US futures rebounded from three days of losses, and climbed on Thursday as JPM suggests a relief rally may be starting as traders turn their attention to corporate news after conceding that rate cuts may be delayed beyond the first quarter. As of 8:10am, S&P futures rose 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 0.8%. A positive earnings report from Taiwan semiconductor giant TSMC is boosting AMD and NVDA. Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 index edged higher, having slumped almost 2% in the first three days of the week. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index advanced 1.4% as a surge in ETF trading pointed toward state funds’ involvement to reverse an earlier rout. The dollar is flat while 10Y yields dipped by 1basis point to 4.09%. Heightened military action in the Middle East is pushing WTI up less than 1% with natgas appearing to react more to the cold snap in the US. Metals are weaker and Ags are rallying. Today’s macro data focus in primarily housing data plus weekly jobless data.
Chipmakers gained in US premarket trading after Taiwan Semiconductor, the main supplier to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Inc., said it expects a return to solid growth this quarter. Microchip Technology Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Applied Materials Inc. added more than 2% each. Apple climbed 1.7%, while Nvidia rose 1.6%. Among other premarket movers, Boeing gained after winning an order for 150 of its troubled 737 Max jets from India’s newest airline. Humana Inc. plummeted after the health insurer forecast anemic enrollment growth for this year. Here are some other premarket movers:
Plug Power (PLUG US) shares drop 16%, set to reach their lowest level since Sept. 2019, after the green hydrogen company filed for a possible at-the-market offering of up to $1 billion shares via B. Riley Securities. Analysts said that the equity raise suggests other financing routes were tricky to access, and questioned whether it would be enough to finance the embattled firm’s operations for the next year.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares decline 4.6%, set to extend this week’s 59% drop as the ultra-low cost airline was downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi following the collapse of a planned merger with JetBlue.
Discover Financial (DFS US) shares slide 11% after its fourth-quarter results included earnings that missed estimates and higher provision for credit losses than anticipated by consensus.
Signs that European policy makers are converging around a June rate reduction helped calm markets, along with indications that Chinese state funds are coming to the rescue of equities battered by a flagging economy.
“The medium-term outlook should still be positive for markets as rates will be cut this year,” said Max Wolman, an investment director at abrdn in London. “Timing of the cuts is less relevant because when they start investors will reduce their cash holdings back into risky assets.”
“If US rates fall then most probably the rally will continue, but if inflation makes a come back then no,” said Michel Danechi, a portfolio manager at Vedra Partners. “Some profit-taking after the great run of last quarter is to be expected.”
European stocks inch higher after posting their largest three-day fall since October. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, led by gains in travel, consumer product and technology shares. Luxury stocks are among the biggest gainers after a strong trading update from Cartier owner Richemont. Still, Watches of Switzerland sinks after cutting its full-year revenue guidance. Among individual movers in Europe, gambling group Flutter Entertainment Plc soared more than 10% after reporting results roughly in line with analysts’ estimates. Here are the biggest European movers on Thursday:
Richemont climbs as much as 10%, the most since 2022, after the Swiss group’s sales came in above expectations and showed top-line resilience in a difficult luxury environment
European luxury-goods stocks rally on the back of Richemont’s sales beat which assuaged worries over cooling demand for high-end goods, with LVMH rising as much as 4.1%
ASML and fellow European chip equipment stocks rise after the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, TSMC, said its 2024 capex budget will be between $28b and $32b
Evotec rises as much as 4.1% after RBC upgrades the German pharmaceutical company to outperform, citing a currently over-discounted valuation as well as underlying fundamentals
Travis Perkins rises as much as 5.7% after the UK’s largest supplier of building materials said annual operating profit will be in-line with its previous guidance, with analysts flagging some caution
Cranswick rises 2.9% to hit a one-month high after the food manufacturer said annual adjusted pretax profit will be ahead of expectations following stronger-than-anticipated trading
Watches of Switzerland falls as much as 32% to the lowest since November 2020 after the luxury watch and jewelery dealer cut full-year revenue guidance due to “volatile” trading
Harbour Energy shares slide as much as 8% after the UK-based energy company forecast lower production for 2024 than expected, something Canaccord attributes to planned shutdowns
Ahold Delhaize falls as much as 3.1% after UBS cut the grocery-store operator to neutral from buy, citing a challenging backdrop and lack of catalysts for upside
Sage falls as much as 2.7% after the software maker reported 10% total revenue growth in the quarter ending December, which analysts said was solid but already factored into elevated expectations
Earlier in the session, Chinese equity benchmarks rebounded in afternoon trading, recovering from what was a rout early in the session with a jump in turnover in some major exchange-traded funds raising speculation that buying by state funds maybe behind the reversal. Traded value of the Huatai-Pinebridge CSI 300 ETF surged to 15.3 billion yuan ($2.1 billion) on Thursday, the highest since 2015, while those for Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF also saw extraordinary spikes. That coincided with gains in the CSI 300 benchmark of mainland shares, which closed 1.4% higher after declining as much as 1.8%.
The drop in bond prices reflected a shift in investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. Swaps pricing shows the chances of such a cut slipped below 60% on Wednesday for the first time since the middle of December. That’s down from 80% on Friday. The decline followed comments from Fed officials this week pushing back against market expectations for imminent cuts and stronger-than-expected retail sales data Wednesday. Bumper consumer spending helped propel the economy in recent weeks, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey.
In FX, the dollar snapped a four-day rally against a basket of peers as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%. The yen and Aussie share top spot among the G-10’s, rising 0.2% respectively.
USD/JPY dropped 0.2% to 147.87 as the yen led G-10 gains against the dollar; Selling into the Tokyo fix contributed to the dollar gauge’s broad weakness, according to an Asia-based FX trader
AUD/USD fell as much as 0.4% to 0.6526 before recovering to trade 0.2% higher at 0.6566; Australian unemployment surprisingly tumbled in December as the economy shed 65,100 roles
USD/CHF steadied at 0.8643 giving the Swiss franc a breather from its longest losing steak against the dollar since September; SNB’s Jordan said Wednesday the franc’s strength is materially affecting the inflation outlook
In rates, treasuries climbed after further selling on Wednesday, which was concentrated on the short end of the curve. The policy-sensitive two-year yield fell four basis points after jumping 14 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain since June. 10-year yields fell as much a 3bps to 4.07% before reversing. German 10-year yields are down 1bps at 2.31% as ECB officials look to be converging around June for their first rate cut.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate held above $73 per barrel as twin incidents in the Middle East underlined the region’s rapidly escalating tensions, which have already snarled global shipping and carry the potential for interruptions to crude production. Gold rose after falling more than 1% Wednesday.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for December, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for January. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the Fed’s Bostic, and we’ll also get the ECB’s account of their December meeting. Japanese CPI will be out early tomorrow morning.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,775.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 468.63
MXAP up 0.4% to 162.35
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 493.18
Nikkei little changed at 35,466.17
Topix down 0.2% to 2,492.09
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 15,391.79
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,845.78
Sensex down 0.5% to 71,149.02
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,346.48
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,440.04
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0896
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $78.23/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,012.36
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.20% to 103.24
Top Overnight News
China is pouring stimulus into green manufacturing as the government looks to bolster its economy. WSJ
TSMC rose premarket after signaling a return to “healthy growth” this year, adding to signs of recovery in the chip sector. Profit fell less than feared last quarter. With AI as the main driver, the company sees revenue growing as much as 25%. BBG
ECB officials who until recently had been wary of even discussing interest-rate cuts now look increasingly open to commencing them in June. Speaking this week in Davos, President Christine Lagarde and several of her colleagues dismissed investor bets on reductions before then. But they signaled the chance of a move around mid-year, when they’ll know more about inflation, wages and the stuttering economy, as well as the harm to supply chains by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
The oil market may remain “reasonably well supplied” this year, as output from outside OPEC+ jumps 25% on gains in the Americas, the IEA said. In the US, gasoline and distillate stockpiles jumped, the API is said to have reported. BBG
Oil rose as twin incidents in the Middle East underlined escalating tensions. The US struck more than a dozen Houthi missile launchers in its latest response to the Iran-backed group’s attacks on shipping. Separately, Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes on what it called “terrorist hideouts” in Iran. BBG
One of Nikki Haley’s billionaire backers has warned that he may withhold further support for her presidential candidacy unless she has a strong showing in next week’s Republican primary in New Hampshire. Ken Langone, the co-founder of US retail chain Home Depot, said he was prepared to give Haley “a nice sum of money” — but may wait until after Tuesday’s primary ballot before making the “major gift”. “If she doesn’t get traction in New Hampshire, you don’t throw money down a rat hole,” Langone told the Financial Times. FT
McConnell said the Senate next week will likely vote on a Ukraine/border compromise bill, although it’s unclear whether this can make it through the House (Speaker Johnson’s rhetoric on Wednesday suggested the House could block the Senate’s bill). NYT
AMZN is working on a new paid subscription version of Alexa, w/the updated product powered by AI technology. Business Insider
Boeing could not “afford another slip-up” with its 737 Max family of aircraft and must set aside financial targets to focus solely on quality and safety, warned the head of one of the world’s largest aircraft owners. “Given what has happened with the two fatal crashes and this incident, the financial targets have to take a back seat for Boeing and its supply chain,” said Aengus Kelly, chief executive of the world’s biggest aircraft leasing company AerCap. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with the region mostly negative after the unwinding of central bank rate cut pricing. ASX 200 was dragged lower by the mining-related sectors with attention on BHP’s lower quarterly iron ore output. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after recent currency weakness and disappointing machinery orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark composed itself following yesterday’s near-4% collapse, while the mainland index slipped to its lowest level since 2020 after recent data and rate disappointment.
Top Asian News
Working group of US Treasury and Chinese officials will meet on Thursday in Beijing for the first time, while the topics to be discussed include financial stability, cross-border data regulations, capital markets, sustainable finance, anti-money laundering, financial terrorism and IMF policies, according to FT.
“The possibility of the BOJ being behind the curve in addressing inflationary risks is small; “There’s no pressure to rush towards the exit”, according to sources cited by Asahi
Bourses are mixed and have traded fairly contained throughout the European morning, though have just edged towards session highs in recent trade. The CAC 40 (+0.5%) outperforms, lifted by gains in the Luxury sector, post Richemont (+8.7%) earnings. European sectors are mixed; Significant outperformance in Travel & Leisure, due to hefty gains in Flutter (+10.7%) after strong earnings. Tech is also higher after strong TSMC earnings; ASML (+1.6%), ASM International (+3.5%). US equity futures are meandering around the unchanged mark, with slight outperformance in the NQ (+0.2%); with optimism filtering through into the Tech-heavy index post TSMC earnings. TSMC (2330 TT / TSM) guidance: Sees Q1 revenue between USD 18-18.8bln (exp. 18.26bln); Sees Q1 operating margin between 40-42% (vs 41.6% in Q4), sees Gross Margin between 52-54% (vs 53% in Q4); says 2023 was a “challenging year”
Top European News
ECB’s de Cos said he backs US proposals to impose more stringent requirements on banks than their US and EU counterparts and said countries should go beyond global regulations if required, according to FT.
Maersk (MAERSK DC) says winter weather conditions and Red Sea contingencies are expected to affect operations across Europe and hub terminals
EU27 New Car Registrations (Dec) -3.3% Y/Y “. This drop can be attributed to the high baseline performance in December 2022. December also marked the first month of contraction after 16 consecutive months of growth.”
A primer for the ECB Minutes at 12:00GMT/ 07:00 ET can be found here.
DHL (DHL GY) CEO says still have sufficient air freight capacity despite pressure on supply chains amid Red Sea attacks; says e-commerce is rising after the post-COVID-19 dip
BoE Credit Conditions Survey – 2023 Q4: Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end-November 2023 (Q4). It was expected to be unchanged over the next three months to end-February 2024.
BoE Bank Liabilities Survey – 2023 Q4: Lenders reported that total funding volumes increased in the three months to end-November 2023 (Q4). Total funding volumes were expected to decrease in the three months to end-February 2024 (Q1)
UK PM Sunak’s Rwanda bill passed the third reading in the Commons by 320 votes to 276.
FX
DXY is contained albeit with a slight downward bias, with the index within a 103.14-39 intraday parameter at the time of writing in the absence of news flow ahead of the weekly jobless claims – in which initial claims coincide with the BLS survey period.
EUR trades in tandem with the Dollar after seeing more pushback against market pricing for an ECB cut yesterday; EUR/USD sits in the middle of a 1.0875-1.0906 range with the 50 DMA (1.0913) to the upside.
A firm session for the JPY with overnight desks citing importers supporting the currency at the Tokyo fix, whilst USD/JPY continued to retrace yesterday’s upside which took the pair to a 148.52 peak.
Antipodeans benefit amid their high-beta status with the broader market risk tone holding above water with the support of firmer commodities.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1174 vs exp. 7.1976 (prev. 7.1168).
Fixed Income
USTs are steadily grinding higher since yesterday’s Retail Sales hit which prompted a decline to the 111-09 region before edging back towards 111-20 highs in early European hours.
Bunds are contained having kicked off the session subdued but found support at 134.15 despite a lack of drivers this morning; contracts are languishing not far off overnight lows following the recent slew of pushback from ECB officials on market pricing.
Gilts resumed trade at 98.25 (vs yesterday’s 98.33 close) with the UK bonds attempting to trim some of the losses from yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI.
France sells EUR 11.99bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12bln 2.50% 2027, 2.75% 2029, 0.50% 2029 OAT
Commodities
Crude futures are firmer following yesterday’s mixed settlement, with the contracts seemingly underpinned by the expanding geopolitical arena. Prices saw fleeting downticks on the IEA OMR which, after suggestions that the IEA “stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption”.
Precious metals trade horizontally with modest gains in the absence of a catalyst in the European morning and amid a stead Dollar; XAU is confined to a tight USD 2,005.02-2,013.89/oz intraday range.
Base metals are mostly but modestly firmer trade across base metals, in fitting with the broader performance seen in European equities.
IEA OMR (Jan): 2024 global oil demand growth forecast upgraded by 180k BPD to 1.24mln BPD, citing improved GDP outlook and Q4 23 price drop; “IEA stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption”
Iraqi oil minister said oil exports are not affected by the Red Sea as most of the country’s oil goes to Asia
Qatar set March-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 0.88/bbl above Dubai quotes.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US Central Command said a drone launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen struck a US-owned vessel in the Gulf of Aden, while there were no injuries and some damage reported. US military also announced it conducted strikes on 14 Houthi missiles that were loaded to be fired from Yemen and said the missiles presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.
Houthi-controlled Saba News Agency said US and British aircraft targeted several governorates in Yemen.
UK Foreign Secretary Cameron met with the Iranian Foreign Minister at the WEF and condemned the attacks in Erbil, Iraq, while he also made it clear that the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are illegal and unacceptable, according to Reuters.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister held a call earlier with his Iranian counterpart and underscored the attack conducted by Iran inside Pakistani territory was a serious breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty and a violation of international law, while he added that Pakistan reserved the right to respond to this provocative act. It was later reported that Pakistan hit Baluchi militant targets in Iranian territory.
Pakistan Foreign Ministry said it undertook a series of military strikes against terrorist hideouts in the Sistan and Baluchistan Province of Iran, while it added that Pakistan fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and it will continue to endeavour to find joint solutions with Iran against terrorism, according to Reuters.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister said the war on Lebanon is not easy for Israel and will be a regional war, adds if a regional war breaks out, rockets will fall on Israel from all sides, according to Al Arabiya.
Pakistan’s armed forces are on “extremely high alert”, adds that any more “misadventure” from Iran will be met forcefully, according to Reuters citing Pakistan’s top security official
Geopolitics: Other
Russian Defence Ministry said air defence units shot down Ukrainian drones in Moscow and Leningrad regions, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Ministry official and Philippines Deputy Foreign Secretary reaffirmed that the South China Sea dispute is not the whole story of bilateral relations and they believe maintaining communication and dialogue is essential to maintaining maritime peace. Furthermore, they agreed to improve maritime communication and continue to properly manage maritime conflicts and differences through friendly consultations, while they agreed to properly handle maritime emergencies in certain waters of the South China Sea.
Philippines Foreign Ministry said the Philippines and China had frank and productive discussions to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea, while both sides agreed to calmly deal with any incidents through diplomacy and they assured each other of mutual commitment to avoid escalation of tensions, according to Reuters.
Russian-installed official says Ukraine attempted to attack Russian oil terminal in St. Petersburg with drones overnight,
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205,000, prior 202,000
08:30: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.84m, prior 1.83m
08:30: Dec. Housing Starts MoM, est. -8.7%, prior 14.8%
08:30: Dec. Housing Starts, est. 1.43m, prior 1.56m
08:30: Dec. Building Permits MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -2.5%, revised -2.1%
08:30: Dec. Building Permits, est. 1.48m, prior 1.46m, revised 1.47m
08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -6.7, prior -10.5, revised -12.8
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The big question for markets at the moment is whether 2024 to date is just a understandable hangover to an exceptionally good end to 2023 or a marker for a more challenging year ahead. I suppose our highest conviction thought so far this year has been that the least likely scenario would be the level of rate cuts priced in by the market occurring without a recession. Such a scenario has felt completely out of place with history and still does. We have corrected back a bit this week after a slew of relatively ‘hawkish’ central bank speak (vs. market expectations), and yesterday’s surprisingly strong US retail sales, but it still feels optimistic to assume such levels of cuts without economic troubles.
The recent very strong correlation between bonds and equities that started bearishly for both in August around the QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) and flipped bullish in October around the QRA, has flipped bearish again in 2024. History tells us the tight correlation won’t last forever, and one will break out from the other, but for now the relationship is lockstep and yesterday was another day where both sold off as investors dialled back the prospect of near-term rate cuts. There were several drivers behind that, including comments from ECB President Lagarde pushing back on market expectations, an upside surprise for UK inflation, as well as strong data on US retail sales. And given the comments from Fed Governor Waller the previous day about cutting “methodically and carefully”, it all fed (pardon the pun) the narrative that central banks aren’t in a hurry to cut rates. In turn, that led to a sizeable market sell-off, with yields on 2yr Treasuries up by +14.0bps on the day, their sharpest rise since June, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.56%) put in its worst performance in two weeks. Overnight China equities are back down to March 2020 levels.
Looking at those drivers in more detail, the first were comments from several central bank officials, including ECB President Lagarde. She struck a concerned tone about market pricing, saying that it was “not helping our fight against inflation, if the anticipation is such that they are way too high compared with what’s likely to happen”. Separately, Slovenia’s Vasle said that for him “it’s absolutely premature to expect the first cuts at the beginning of the second quarter”. Meanwhile, Dutch central bank governor Knot made similar comments to Lagarde, saying that markets were “getting ahead of themselves, it’s pretty clear, and the problem for us is that in the end that might become self-defeating”.
All that pushed back on the prospect of imminent ECB rate cuts, and by yesterday’s close the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was down by -8.0bps to 138bps (and down -25bps since last Friday). That also helped drive a sell-off across European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.7bps), OATs (+6.4bps) and BTPs (+8.8bps) all moving higher on the day. The moves were even more pronounced at the front end. For instance, 2yr German yields were up +10.2bps, and 2yr Italian yields were up +13.4bps.
Nevertheless, the biggest bond sell-off was in the UK yesterday, which followed an upside surprise in the latest CPI print. That showed a rebound in headline CPI to +4.0% in December (vs. +3.8% expected), with core CPI also holding steady at +5.1% (vs. +4.9% expected). That led investors to dial back the likelihood of rate cuts from the Bank of England, with the probability of a cut by May down from 88% on Tuesday to 54% by yesterday’s close. And for the year as a whole, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting came down by -20.0bps to 111bps, so the better part of a 25bp rate cut being taken out of market pricing in 2024. For gilts, that led to a dramatic sell-off, with the 10yr yield up +18.7bps to 3.98%, which was its biggest daily move higher since February last year, whilst the 5yr yield saw an even larger increase of +23.7bps, taking it up to 3.90%.
That narrative pushing back on rate cuts got further support from the US data yesterday, which pointed to continued resilience in December. For instance, retail sales were up by +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected), whilst the retail control group was up +0.8% (vs. +0.2% expected). So Q4 US GDP forecasts will get a decent boost. Moreover, industrial production then saw growth of +0.1% (vs. -0.1% expected), albeit with a downward revision of two-tenths to the previous month’s growth. Lastly, we found out that the NAHB’s housing market index had risen to a 4-month high of 44 in January (vs. 39 expected). On the back of the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4-23 improved from +2.2% to +2.4%. That equates to the US economy growing in line with its 25-year trend.
As in Europe, this all contributed to the push-back on rate cuts, with the likelihood of a Fed cut by March down to its lowest level since the last Fed meeting, at just 59%. That helped the US Dollar inch further up, with the dollar index (+0.09%) closing at its highest level in over a month. But for Treasuries there was a pretty sharp sell-off, with the 2yr yield seeing its sharpest daily rise since June (+14.0bps) to 4.36%, whilst the 10yr yield saw a more muted rise of +4.5bps to 4.10%. Overnight in Asia, 2 and 10yr US yields are back down by -2.7bps and -1.3bps respectively.
For equities, all this proved to be a tough backdrop, which left the S&P 500 down -0.56% on the day. This decline was very broad, with 22 of the 24 industry groups in the S&P 500 down on the day. Tech stocks saw similar declines, with the NASDAQ down -0.59%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.73%) saw its 4th consecutive daily decline. With equities under pressure, the VIX volatility index (+0.9pts to 14.8) rose to its highest level since early November. And over in Europe there were even sharper losses, as the STOXX 600 fell -1.13%, its largest decline in nearly three months.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with most markets higher but with China slumping again. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.64%) is reversing its initial sell-off with the Nikkei also rebounding +0.27% along with the KOSPI (+0.12%). However, the Shanghai Composite (-1.59%) has fallen to its lowest level since March 2020 and the CSI (-0.63%) is also lower. S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.14%) futures are slightly lower.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% for a second month in December despite employment dropping by 65,000 people, compared with an expected increase of 15,000 people. At the same time, the labour participation rate also fell more than expected to 66.8%, down from the Bloomberg estimates of 67.1% and below November’s 67.3%. Our economists’ first take is that a lot of the odd anomalies in the report are more likely to be noise than a signal. See his reaction here.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for December, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for January. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the Fed’s Bostic, and we’ll also get the ECB’s account of their December meeting. Japanese CPI will be out early tomorrow morning.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities mixed, NQ outperforms post-TSMC earnings; DXY flat & Antipodeans bid in-fitting with risk tone; US IJC due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 05:51 AM
European bourses are mixed, with clear outperformance in the CAC 40 as Richemont earnings lift the luxury sector; US equity futures trade in tandem, with NQ leading amid tailwinds from TSMC earnings.
Dollar is flat with a slight negative bias, Antipodeans are bid in-fitting with risk tone, and JPY trims some of yesterday’s losses.
Bonds contained in catalyst-thin trade; Treasuries grind higher attempting to pare US Retail Sales low, Bunds underperform amid the recent hawkish ECB rhetoric.
Crude is firmer amid continued geopolitical tensions; base metals are modestly firmer, in-fitting with risk tone, and precious metals move with the Dollar.
Looking ahead, US Building Permits, IJC, Philly Fed Business Index, NZ Manufacturing PMI, Japanese CPI, ECB Minutes, Comments from Fed’s Bostic & ECB’s Lagarde, Supply from the US, Earnings from United Airlines.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
Bourses are mixed and have traded fairly contained throughout the European morning, though have just edged towards session highs in recent trade. The CAC 40 (+0.5%) outperforms, lifted by gains in the Luxury sector, post Richemont (+8.7%) earnings.
European sectors are mixed; Significant outperformance in Travel & Leisure, due to hefty gains in Flutter (+10.7%) after strong earnings. Tech is also higher after strong TSMC earnings; ASML (+1.6%), ASM International (+3.5%).
US equity futures are meandering around the unchanged mark, with slight outperformance in the NQ (+0.2%); with optimism filtering through into the Tech-heavy index post TSMC earnings.
TSMC (2330 TT / TSM) guidance: Sees Q1 revenue between USD 18-18.8bln (exp. 18.26bln); Sees Q1 operating margin between 40-42% (vs 41.6% in Q4), sees Gross Margin between 52-54% (vs 53% in Q4); says 2023 was a “challenging year”
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
DXY is contained albeit with a slight downward bias, with the index within a 103.14-39 intraday parameter at the time of writing in the absence of news flow ahead of the weekly jobless claims – in which initial claims coincide with the BLS survey period.
EUR trades in tandem with the Dollar after seeing more pushback against market pricing for an ECB cut yesterday; EUR/USD sits in the middle of a 1.0875-1.0906 range with the 50 DMA (1.0913) to the upside.
A firm session for the JPY with overnight desks citing importers supporting the currency at the Tokyo fix, whilst USD/JPY continued to retrace yesterday’s upside which took the pair to a 148.52 peak.
Antipodeans benefit amid their high-beta status with the broader market risk tone holding above water with the support of firmer commodities.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1174 vs exp. 7.1976 (prev. 7.1168).
USTs are steadily grinding higher since yesterday’s Retail Sales hit which prompted a decline to the 111-09 region before edging back towards 111-20 highs in early European hours.
Bunds are contained having kicked off the session subdued but found support at 134.15 despite a lack of drivers this morning; contracts are languishing not far off overnight lows following the recent slew of pushback from ECB officials on market pricing.
Gilts resumed trade at 98.25 (vs yesterday’s 98.33 close) with the UK bonds attempting to trim some of the losses from yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI.
Crude futures are firmer following yesterday’s mixed settlement, with the contracts seemingly underpinned by the expanding geopolitical arena. Prices saw fleeting downticks on the IEA OMR which, after suggestions that the IEA “stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption”.
Precious metals trade horizontally with modest gains in the absence of a catalyst in the European morning and amid a stead Dollar; XAU is confined to a tight USD 2,005.02-2,013.89/oz intraday range.
Base metals are mostly but modestly firmer trade across base metals, in fitting with the broader performance seen in European equities.
IEA OMR (Jan): 2024 global oil demand growth forecast upgraded by 180k BPD to 1.24mln BPD, citing improved GDP outlook and Q4 23 price drop; “IEA stands ready to respond decisively if there is a supply disruption”
Iraqi oil minister said oil exports are not affected by the Red Sea as most of the country’s oil goes to Asia
Qatar set March-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 0.88/bbl above Dubai quotes.
ECB’s de Cos said he backs US proposals to impose more stringent requirements on banks than their US and EU counterparts and said countries should go beyond global regulations if required, according to FT.
Maersk (MAERSK DC) says winter weather conditions and Red Sea contingencies are expected to affect operations across Europe and hub terminals
EU27 New Car Registrations (Dec) -3.3% Y/Y “. This drop can be attributed to the high baseline performance in December 2022. December also marked the first month of contraction after 16 consecutive months of growth.”
A primer for the ECB Minutes at 12:00GMT/ 07:00 ET can be found here.
DHL (DHL GY) CEO says still have sufficient air freight capacity despite pressure on supply chains amid Red Sea attacks; says e-commerce is rising after the post-COVID-19 dip
BoE Credit Conditions Survey – 2023 Q4: Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households increased in the three months to end-November 2023 (Q4). It was expected to be unchanged over the next three months to end-February 2024.
BoE Bank Liabilities Survey – 2023 Q4: Lenders reported that total funding volumes increased in the three months to end-November 2023 (Q4). Total funding volumes were expected to decrease in the three months to end-February 2024 (Q1)
UK PM Sunak’s Rwanda bill passed the third reading in the Commons by 320 votes to 276.
DATA RECAP
UK RICS Housing Survey (Dec) -30.0 vs. Exp. -34.0 (Prev. -43.0, Rev. -41)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House Speaker Johnson said he had a productive meeting with US President Biden and must insist border be the top priority. It was also reported that Senate Majority Leader Schumer said there was a Democratic and Republican agreement to help Ukraine and he is more optimistic now that they can come to an agreement on border and Ukraine in one package, while he also noted that President Biden said he was willing to move forward on the border.
Apple (AAPL) US DoJ prepares to file Apple (AAPL) antitrust case focused on software and hardware limits as soon as March, according to Bloomberg. DoJ hopes to file a suit in Q1 of the year, though that timing could slip.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US Central Command said a drone launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen struck a US-owned vessel in the Gulf of Aden, while there were no injuries and some damage reported. US military also announced it conducted strikes on 14 Houthi missiles that were loaded to be fired from Yemen and said the missiles presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.
Houthi-controlled Saba News Agency said US and British aircraft targeted several governorates in Yemen.
UK Foreign Secretary Cameron met with the Iranian Foreign Minister at the WEF and condemned the attacks in Erbil, Iraq, while he also made it clear that the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are illegal and unacceptable, according to Reuters.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister held a call earlier with his Iranian counterpart and underscored the attack conducted by Iran inside Pakistani territory was a serious breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty and a violation of international law, while he added that Pakistan reserved the right to respond to this provocative act. It was later reported that Pakistan hit Baluchi militant targets in Iranian territory.
Pakistan Foreign Ministry said it undertook a series of military strikes against terrorist hideouts in the Sistan and Baluchistan Province of Iran, while it added that Pakistan fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and it will continue to endeavour to find joint solutions with Iran against terrorism, according to Reuters.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister said the war on Lebanon is not easy for Israel and will be a regional war, adds if a regional war breaks out, rockets will fall on Israel from all sides, according to Al Arabiya.
Pakistan’s armed forces are on “extremely high alert”, adds that any more “misadventure” from Iran will be met forcefully, according to Reuters citing Pakistan’s top security official
OTHER
Russian Defence Ministry said air defence units shot down Ukrainian drones in Moscow and Leningrad regions, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Ministry official and Philippines Deputy Foreign Secretary reaffirmed that the South China Sea dispute is not the whole story of bilateral relations and they believe maintaining communication and dialogue is essential to maintaining maritime peace. Furthermore, they agreed to improve maritime communication and continue to properly manage maritime conflicts and differences through friendly consultations, while they agreed to properly handle maritime emergencies in certain waters of the South China Sea.
Philippines Foreign Ministry said the Philippines and China had frank and productive discussions to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea, while both sides agreed to calmly deal with any incidents through diplomacy and they assured each other of mutual commitment to avoid escalation of tensions, according to Reuters.
Russian-installed official says Ukraine attempted to attack Russian oil terminal in St. Petersburg with drones overnight,
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is trading modestly softer having fallen below the USD 42.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed with the region mostly negative after the unwinding of central bank rate cut pricing.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by the mining-related sectors with attention on BHP’s lower quarterly iron ore output.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after recent currency weakness and disappointing machinery orders.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark composed itself following yesterday’s near-4% collapse, while the mainland index slipped to its lowest level since 2020 after recent data and rate disappointment.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Working group of US Treasury and Chinese officials will meet on Thursday in Beijing for the first time, while the topics to be discussed include financial stability, cross-border data regulations, capital markets, sustainable finance, anti-money laundering, financial terrorism and IMF policies, according to FT.
“The possibility of the BOJ being behind the curve in addressing inflationary risks is small; “There’s no pressure to rush towards the exit”, according to sources cited by Asahi
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Nov) -4.9% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 0.7%); Machinery Orders YY (Nov) -5.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -2.2%)
Australian Employment (Dec) -65.1k vs. Exp. 17.6k (Prev. 61.5k); Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.9%); Participation Rate (Dec) 66.8% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.2%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.17 PTS OR 0.43% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 114.89 PTS OR 0.75% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 11.58 OR 0.03% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.42% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1937 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2167 /Oil UP TO 72.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 77.80/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
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2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
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2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
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end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK/EU/ISRAEL/HAMAS
European Parliament: Gaza ceasefire conditional to release of hostages
Any ceasefire in Gaza is conditional on the dismantling of the Hamas terror group and immediate release of all hostages, the European Parliament ruled in a Thursday vote, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said, lauding a major “diplomatic achievement.”
The parliament resolution was accepted following a vote, with 312 supporters to 131 who voted against.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that the European Parliament “recognized Israel’s right to defend itself…we will continue to work for the interest of the State of Israel.Go to the full article >
Police seen outside Jerusalem’s Central Bus Station, after shooting a murder suspect who lunged at officers with a knife, January 18, 2024. (Israel Police)
A man suspected of murdering a tourist in Tel Aviv Thursday morning was shot by police near Jerusalem’s Central Bus Station in the evening as he attempted to stab policemen questioning him.
Police said the man was cornered by police outside the bus station, and was covered in blood. When police began questioning him, he pulled out a knife and lunged at them, leading them to shoot him and seriously wound him.
The suspect, aged around 30, was taken for treatment at Shaare Zedek Medical Center.
A civilian was lightly injured in the incident. The cause of his injury was not immediately made clear. He too was taken to hospital.
end
LEBANON/ISRAEL
IDF takes out Hezbollah terrorists who fired barrage at Israel’s North
The IDF killed the Hezbollah terrorists responsible for rocket fire toward Rosh Hanikra on Wednesday, the Israeli military said.
Earlier on Wednesday, several launches were detected from Lebanon to northern Israel. One of the Hezbollah launch teams that fired rockets at Rosh HaNikra was identified immediately after the launch by an IDF aircraft that followed and attacked it.
Later, Air Force fighter jets attacked a number of active launchers and terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
This is in addition to IDF artillery strikes in other areas in southern Lebanon.
The IDF says it is continuing a counter-terror operation in the West Bank’s Tulkarem refugee camp, which began more than 35 hours ago.
So far, it says, troops have uncovered dozens of explosives hidden under the roads using engineering vehicles, searched hundreds of buildings and arrested 15 wanted Palestinians.
The IDF says troops also seized many weapons during the raids, and destroyed an explosives lab and a building used by local terror operatives to observe Israeli forces with surveillance cameras.
Eight Palestinian gunmen have so far been killed during clashes with IDF troops in the camp, the military says, some of them in an airstrike yesterday.
In other areas of the West Bank, the IDF says troops arrested 21 wanted Palestinians in overnight raids.
Since October 7, troops have arrested more than 2,700 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas, according to the IDF
END
USA//IRAQ/IRAN
HOUTHIS/IRAN/USA/THE WEST
US Coalition In Another Wave Of Strikes On Houthi Positions To Thwart Red Sea Launches
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 09:43 PM
Update 2143ET: In the overnight and early morning hours (local), the Pentagon has announced another round of strikes against Houthi launch positions, reportedly as the militants were preparing more attacks on Red Sea shipping:
The U.S. has launched a new retaliatory strike against Houthi targets in Yemen amid the group’s continued attacks on international ships in the area, officials said Wednesday.
Five areas were targeted in the U.S. strikes on Yemen: the governorates of Hodeidah, Taiz, Dhamar, Bayda and Saada, according to the Houthi state media, the Sanaa-Saba press agency.
US Central Command detailed of the fresh attack, which marks at least the third or fourth round of such an assault, as follows:
In the context of ongoing multi-national efforts to protect freedom of navigation and prevent attacks on U.S. and partner maritime traffic in the Red Sea, on Jan. 17 at approximately 6 p.m. (EST), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes on 14 Iran-backed Houthi missiles that were loaded to be fired in Houthi controlled areas in Yemen.
These missiles on launch rails presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region and could have been fired at any time, prompting U.S. forces to exercise their inherent right and obligation to defend themselves. These strikes, along with other actions we have taken, will degrade the Houthi’s capabilities to continue their reckless attacks on international and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.
* * *
On Wednesday, just as the Biden administration has redesignated Yemen’s Houthis (or Ansar Allah movement) a global terrorist organization, the group has again launched an attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, which suffered a direct hit.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued a new alert describing an incident 60 nautical miles southeast of Yemen’s Aden. The report indicates that “vessel has been hit on the port side by an uncrewed aerial system.”
This marks a handful of serious attack incidents in the vital waterway since the weekend, also following the US conducting a third round of missile strikes on Houthi launch sites on Tuesday, but which were smaller than the prior waves of attacks.
A spokesman for the Yemeni group has specifically responded to Washington’s terror designation, telling Reuters that the “attacks on ships in the Red Sea heading to Israel will continue despite the designation.”
The Wednesday announcement from the White House reverses a 2021 decision wherein the Iran-linked group was delisted, as part of efforts to achieve peace between the rebels and Saudi-UAE coalition, which have been waging a brutal war since 2015.
According to details of the Wednesday terror designation:
Officials said the “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” (SDGT) designation, which targets the group with harsh sanctions, was aimed at cutting off funding and weapons the Houthis have used to attack or hijack ships in vital Red Sea shipping lanes, as a response to Israel’s war on Gaza.
“These attacks fit the textbook definition of terrorism,” said one of three administration officials who briefed reporters ahead of the announcement, on condition of anonymity.
The White House’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the designation, which comes into effect in 30 days, could be reevaluated if the Houthis stop their attacks in the Red Sea.
With Gaza’s civilian death tolls till soaring, the Iranians are likely to also remain undeterred in funding and assisting the Houthis. In the meantime, US coalition airstrikes on Yemen are likely to continue – and simultaneously Houthi drone and missile launches will persist.
Maritime monitoring source Tanker Trackers has observed that vessels have increasingly opted for an interesting security measure: “There are now close to 50 vessels worldwide which broadcast AIS messages stating that they have nothing to do with Israel (some; even USA), including one which won’t even pass through the Red Sea area at all as it is heading to Malaysia from the Atlantic Ocean.”
END
Red Sea ship hit by drone off coast of Yemen’s Aden
By REUTERS
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization said on Wednesday it had received a report of an incident 60 nautical miles southeast of Yemen’s Aden.
The master reported the “vessel has been hit on the port side by an uncrewed aerial system,” UKMTO said in an advisory note.
“There was a fire onboard, which has now been extinguished,” it added
Iran-Backed Houthis: ‘We Are Now In Direct Conflict With US & UK’
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 01:20 PM
On Thursday Houthi chief Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared that “we are now in direct confrontation with the US and UK” in the Red Sea, following the overnight US coalition airstrikes on Yemen, which constitute the fourth round of counter-Houthi attacks.
The Houthis this week have said they will attack all Israeli and US targets in response to the massacre of Palestinians happening in the Gaza Strip. “Anyone attempting to hinder us from doing so will fail,” a Houthi official said Monday.
As we noted earlier, the Houthis latest attack on Red Sea commercial vessels came on the very day that the Biden administration relisted the group as a global terror organization. Thus it’s clear that with each escalatory move of Washington, the Houthis express their defiance, and have only become more committed to wreaking havoc on global shipping in the vital Red Sea waterway.
Initially, the Houthis declared that either Israeli vessels or ships headed to Israeli ports would be targeted, but the scope of their targeting has expanded. “The ship doesn’t necessarily have to be heading to Israel for us to target it, it is enough for it to be American,” Nasruddin Amer, a Houthi spokesman, toldAl Jazeera at the start of this week.
Maritime monitoring source Tanker Trackershas observed that vessels have increasingly opted for an interesting security measure: “There are now close to 50 vessels worldwide which broadcast AIS messages stating that they have nothing to do with Israel (some; even USA), including one which won’t even pass through the Red Sea area at all as it is heading to Malaysia from the Atlantic Ocean.”
Meanwhile, Al Jazeera is reporting the following development Thursday:
Iranian Navy Commander: The Alborz destroyer is in the Red Sea to escort Iranian commercial ships and oil tankers
There have been recent unconfirmed reports that Iranian or Hezbollah operatives could be on the ground in Yemen giving assistance to the Houthis. Recent Wall Street Journal analysis highlighted this as follows:
Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been assisting Houthi attacks on commercial ships, according to people familiar with the Yemeni group. A spokesperson for the Houthis said in December that the group didn’t need to rely on Iran for help in its attacks.
The attacks are a concern for Tehran’s government, said a senior Iranian official.
“The Houthis are more emboldened with every hit,” said the official, who was part of the team that negotiated a now-abandoned nuclear deal with the U.S. and other nations in 2015.
The official continued, “That’s a problem because it further raises tensions between Iran and America, which neither want a direct confrontation.” Unpredictability grows, as “They could strike an American warship, a China cargo vessel or a Russia-linked tanker. Then all hell can break loose.”
But when it comes to the crisis in the Red Sea, Russia has been relatively quiet, and appears to be staying on the sidelines. However, the Kremlin has condemned escalation via US coalition airstrikes.
“A large-scale military escalation in the Red Sea region could strike out the positive trends that have emerged recently in the Yemeni settlement process, as well as provoke a destabilization of the situation throughout the Middle East,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned last Friday.
* * *
Below is a relevant note from Rabobank…
Davos, and ECB President Lagarde, also mentioned Red Sea inflation risks. There, the US has redesignated the Houthis as global terrorists – with a 30-day notice period(!) and massive sanctions carve-outs. The Houthis, apparently as deft at comedy as at disrupting the global economy, released a statement saying the US move “would not affect their operations.”
Indeed, they have since hit another ship, and may be shifting their mobile missile launchers to avoid airstrikes and target the Gulf of Aden as well as the Bab El-Mandeb. That makes the maritime area vulnerable to attack even further beyond the protective capabilities of Operation Prosperity Guardian. So what is to be done as the ‘US Empire’ crumbles and the global maritime trading system goes back to a 19th century world of piracy, national navies having to protect trade, and no Suez or Panama Canals? Davos is short of answers.
Lt Richard Hecht
.END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
IRAN/PAKISTAN
In the words of Ron Burgundy: “Boy did this escalate fast!” May I remind everyone that Pakistan is a nuclear power.
(zerohedge)
Iran, Pakistan On Brink Of Military Conflict Following Missile Strike – China Urges Calm
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 08:25 PM
Iran’s Tuesday missile and drone strikes targeting Sunni jihadists in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province have as expected unleashed a diplomatic war between Tehran and Islamabad.
Pakistan started its response by recalling its ambassador from the Iranian capital Wednesday, while also booting the Iranian ambassador from Pakistan. Pakistani officials say that two children were killed in what Iran said was a response to the January 3rd suicide bombings of Kerman city, which killed over 100 people.
“Last night’s unprovoked and blatant breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty by Iran is a violation of international law and the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations,” Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch has stated. “It is even more concerning that this illegal act has taken place despite the existence of several channels of communication between Pakistan and Iran.”
“Pakistan reserves the right to respond to this illegal act. The responsibility for the consequences will lie squarely with Iran,” the spokeswoman added. “We have conveyed this message to the Iranian Government. We have also informed them that Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and that the Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan who is currently visiting Iran may not return for the time being.”
Iranian state media has said the attack destroyed two sites belonging to the terrorist organization Jaish al-Adl. It is a region that Tehran authorities have long viewed as a hotbed of terrorism and the source of frequent cross-border attacks:
Authorities in Balochistan province told CNN two girls had died and at least four people were injured. The girls, aged eight and 12, were killed in houses that were damaged in the attack in the village of Koh-e-Sabz in Kulag, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) from Panjgur district, on Tuesday evening, according to the district’s deputy commissioner Mumtaz Khetran. Khetran also said a mosque near the homes was targeted and hit in the strikes.
Koh-e-Sabz — about 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Pakistan’s border with Iran — is known to be the home of Jaish al-Adl’s former second-in-command Mullah Hashim, who was killed in clashes with Iranian forces in Sarawan, an Iranian region adjacent to Panjgur, in 2018.
Interestingly, China has intervened diplomatically, urging both sides to react with calm and restraint. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Wednesday urged for both sides to “avoid actions that would lead to an escalation of tension and work together to maintain peace and stability in the region.”
To review of fast-moving events Wednesday, according to a regional correspondent:
Pakistan recalls ambassador in Tehran, kicks out Iran ambassador
Iranian reports on border clashes
IRGC commander killed
China mediation failed: local media
Unconfirmed reports that border shut
Saudi mediating
India statement backs Iran
The United States was among those countries that condemned Iran’s attack which was deep into Pakistani territory. The situation remains dangerous also because Pakistan is a nuclear power.
END
PAKISTAN/IRAN
PAKISTAN missile strikes Iran. Amazing it took only hours for Pakistan to respond to Iran’s aggression. The USA
Pakistani police officers stand guard outside Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry building in Islamabad on January 18, 2024. (Aamir QURESHI / AFP)
At least three women and four children are killed in a missile attack by Pakistan on Iran’s southeast border region, state media reports.
“Pakistan attacked an Iranian border village with missiles,” Iranian state television says, adding that “three women, four children were killed, all non-Iranian nationals.”
Pakistan confirms it carried out strikes against targets in Iran, after Tehran launched attacks on Pakistani territory earlier this week.
“This morning Pakistan undertook a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Siestan-o-Baluchistan province of Iran,” a foreign ministry statement says, adding that a “number of terrorists were killed.”
“This morning’s action was taken in light of credible intelligence of impending large-scale terrorist activities,” the Pakistani government adds.
The attack comes after Iran confirmed carrying out strikes against “a terrorist group” late Tuesday in Pakistan — an attack that Islamabad said killed two children.
end
PAKISTAN/IRAN
New retaliatory airstrikes kills 9 Iranians.
At Least 9 Killed After Pakistan Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes In Iran
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 10:00 AM
In the early hours of Thursday, Pakistan’s air force responded to Iran’s prior cross-border ballistic missile attack against a Sunni militant group believed behind the Kerman city suicide bombings, launching fresh retaliatory strikes against alleged Iranian militant hideouts. Pakistan’s leadership has been seething angry over Iran’s “unprovoked violation of its airspace” on Tuesday.
Pakistan’s new drone and rocket attack killed at least nine people, according to The Associated Press, in an operation that Pakistan’s foreign ministry described as “a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes.”
“This morning’s action was taken in light of credible intelligence of impending large scale terrorist activities,” the statement continued. “This action is a manifestation of Pakistan’s unflinching resolve to protect and defend its national security against all threats.”
Pakistan’s military deployed “killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and standoff weapons”—in reference to weapon systems that fire from a distance, which means that Pakistan’s aircraft likelydidn’t cross into Iranian airspace during the operation.
Interestingly, both sides say they are going after Baluch militants on either side of the Iran-Pakistan border which constitute persistent threats. Both countries accuse the other of harboring and supporting “terrorists” which routinely conduct cross-border atrocities.
Just before its Thursday attack on positions in Iran, Islamabad warned that “Pakistan reserves the right to respond to this illegal act” and asserted “The responsibility for the consequences will lie squarely with Iran.”
Pakistan had begun its response Wednesday byrecalling its ambassador from the Iranian capital, while also booting the Iranian ambassador from Pakistan. Pakistani officials say that two children were killed when Iran launched its attack.
India has sided with Iran, the US has sided against Iran, while China has been neutral and urged restraint and calm:
Beijing has taken a more neutral position. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters, “We call on the two sides to avoid actions that escalate tension, and jointly keep the region peaceful.”
China is, perhaps, in a difficult position at this junction, given its close ties to Pakistan and the fact it imports a significant amount of oil from Iran.
New Delhi, meanwhile, has underlined its “zero tolerance” stance towards terrorism, but has also said it understands “actions that countries take in their self-defense”.
The Indian Foreign Ministry had further stated, “This is a matter between Iran and Pakistan. Insofar as India is concerned, we have an uncompromising zero tolerance towards terrorism,” in a message widely viewed as in Tehran’s corner.
There are reports that Iran has in response launched military exercises along the border with Pakistan on Thursday, as tensions are on edge, in the most significant border events since the 1980’s Iran-Iraq war.
end
Pakistan/Iran
Good Analysis on why Iran is attacking Pakistan!
(Seth Frantzman)
Pakistan-Iran tensions: What’s next as countries escalate attacks?
The series of attacks threaten to escalate tensions between the countries and escalate tensions in South Asia.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANJANUARY 18, 2024 08:33Updated: JANUARY 18, 2024 09:36
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks on during a meeting at the IRGC Aerospace Force achievements exhibition in Tehran, Iran November 19, 2023(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
Two days after Iran attacked what it claimed were terrorists inside Pakistan, Pakistan carried out attacks on what it claims are “separatists” inside Iran. Iran has demanded an explanation from Pakistan about the attacks, Tasnim News in Iran said on Thursday morning. On the one hand, this could be seen as two countries attacking militant groups in each other’s territory and not necessarily attacking each other, but the series of attacks threaten to escalate tensions between the countries and escalate tensions in South Asia.
According to CNN, “Pakistan has carried out a series of military strikes on what it said were separatist militant hideouts inside Iran, its foreign ministry said Thursday, in the latest incident across their shared border that has sent tensions between the two neighbors soaring.”Pakistan claims these were a “series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes.” Pakistan is striking inside Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province. Similarly, Iran has struck West Pakistan. It’s worth noting that both these regions are populated by minority groups, particularly the Baloch. Therefore, both countries are actually attacking minorities to get back at each other. Iran’s attacks, for instance, killed civilians in Pakistan.
Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate Pakistan Air Force’s ‘Operation Swift Retort’, during an air show in Karachi, Pakistan February 27, 2020 (credit: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters)
Why is Iran escalating tensions now?
Iranian state media on Thursday said explosions took place in Saravan. Iran’s Fars News was circumspect about the explosions on Thursday morning, wary of beginning a war of words with Pakistan. The IRGC, which is close to Fars News, likely is waiting to see what its leaders want to do next. The Iranian governor of Sistan and Balochistan province in eastern Iran claimed that several people were killed, including “non-Iranian women and children.” This appears to indicate that minorities were killed.It’s unclear why Iran has chosen this time to escalate tensions with Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan are both fighting against groups they consider “separatists” and “terrorists.” They could cooperate in the border region. However, Iran has chosen to escalate tensions. Iran did the same thing with attacks on Iraq’s Kurdish region. Iran appears to be making a regional play here, asserting its dominance over Iraq and also potentially careening into escalation with nuclear-armed Pakistan. However, the more likely scenario is not a lot more escalation. Iran has also conducted short-term escalation with Afghanistan in order to achieve goals. Usually, Iran does not go further. Iran doesn’t have a large army that is capable of major operations, and it faces many domestic problems at home. It likes to show off and then climb down.
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
DNA Contaminants In COVID Vaccines Are ‘Beyond The Pale’: Florida Surgeon General
On Jan. 3, the office of Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo issued a statement calling for the halt in the use of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, citing the recent discovery of DNA contaminants in the vaccine vials.
On the Jan. 12 episode of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,“ Dr. Ladapo explained why he called for a halt, saying that while there are also safety concerns with the COVID mRNA vaccines linking them to a multitude of adverse events, the recent discovery is ”beyond the pale.”
“DNA is a common contaminant of many biological products,” he told the show’s host, Jan Jekielek. “We can use DNA to produce different drugs like insulin, other biologics—and that’s a wonderful innovation, and normally, that DNA doesn’t pose a problem.”
Human cells are resistant to DNA entry, and this prevents harming the integrity of the cell’s DNA.
However, since the mRNA vaccines use lipid nanoparticles, which deliver mRNA into the cells directly, DNA contaminants could also be able to enter the cells. Some scientists, like Dr. Ladapo, are concerned that the DNA from the vaccine may integrate with the human genome.
Prominent officials at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) disagree.
On Dec. 6, Dr. Ladapo sent a letter to FDA commissioner Dr. Robert Califf and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director, Dr. Mandy Cohen.
In his letter, he asked if there have been risk assessments of the vaccine DNA integrating into human DNA, especially regarding the controversial SV40 promoter/enhancer region found in Pfizer’s vaccine.
Other questions included whether risk assessments have been done on DNA integration in reproductive cells and if the current levels of DNA residuals are acceptable under the FDA’s standards.
Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, replied to Dr. Ladapo on Dec. 14.
“We’ve gotten … lengthy responses that don’t answer the question,” Dr. Ladapo said.
In his response, Dr. Marks wrote that DNA integration “is quite implausible,” adding that animal studies show “no evidence indicative for genotoxicity.”
No tests were mentioned that would assess if DNA integration is occurring.
Dr. Ladapo believes it would be reckless not to test for DNA integration, a potential risk once DNA enters the cell.
“Their position is, oh, no, it’s fine. Everything’s fine; safe and effective. That’s not only not good enough, but it’s completely unacceptable,” Dr. Ladapo said. “And that’s why I made that determination, and it’s absolutely the correct call.”
DNA Contamination: The SV40 Promoter Controversy
Both Moderna and Pfizer mRNA vaccines contain DNA contaminants, but only the Pfizer vaccines have also been found to contain SV40 promoter/enhancer DNA, which has since become a topic of debate.
SV40, or simian vacuolating virus 40, is a DNA virus that sometimes causes cancer in animals.
However, the SV40 promoter/enhancer found in the vaccines is only a tiny section of the DNA; it is not equivalent to the entire SV40 virus or its protein.
Promoter-enhancers are sections of DNA that can control the activity of other DNA.
“With DNA, there are different regions that tell other parts of DNA whether to be active or not,” Dr. Ladapo said. “This type of control process is very important … The absence of control can, for example, lead to cancer … [and] other metabolic abnormalities.”
In his letter to the FDA, Dr. Ladapo asked about the additional risk of the SV40 promoter/enhancer region’s DNA integration.
Dr. Marks answered that there were no genes for SV40 proteins nor SV40 proteins themselves present in the vaccine.
But Dr. Ladapo believes Dr. Marks is intentionally not answering the question.
“No one’s talking about SV40 protein … we talked about the promoter/enhancer region. They have to be doing it intentionally,” Dr. Ladapo said.
The Risks of DNA Integration
It is currently unknown whether DNA introduced into the body is being integrated into the cell’s human genome; and if it’s integrated, what impact will it have.
Only around 1 percent of the human DNA produces protein; the job of the other 99 percent of DNA is mostly unknown.
“There’s … a lot of uncertainty about our genome—what it does, how it supports life and creates life, and creates the miracle of each individual human being,” Dr. Ladapo said. “What we do understand is that some of the potential risks of DNA integration include development of cancers, because … of the regulation of different aspects of DNA and cell growth.
“Other possibilities include the disruption of the normal expression of some proteins, which then subsequently could lead to disruption of normal human function.”
Since biodistribution studies in rats have shown that the mRNA vaccines can accumulate in the reproductive organs, Dr. Ladapo’s letter expressed concern that there may also be DNA integration of reproductive cells.
“We are the most complex beings—the most complex machines, if you will—living machines that exist on this Earth. So I do believe that our genome is part of our connection to God. So that is to say that there’s quite a lot at risk in terms of not taking proper precautions and sensible precautions, with maintaining the integrity to the best that we can—life ain’t perfect, but to the best that we can with our human genome.”
Note: Lapado appeared with Tucker Carlson as well this week
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) prepared to alert state and local officials to an emerging connection between heart inflammation and COVID-19 vaccines, but ultimately did not send the alert, according to a new document obtained by The Epoch Times.
Dr. Demetre Daskalakis of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Washington in a file photograph. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
All four COVID-19 vaccines that are or have been available in the United States can cause the heart inflammation, or myocarditis, according to studies, experts, and agencies like the CDC. The first cases were reported shortly after the vaccines became available in late 2020.
The CDC sends alerts to federal, state, and local public health officials and doctors across the nation through a system called the Health Alert Network (HAN). Messaging through the system conveys “vital health information,” according to the CDC.
In May 2021, CDC officials drafted an alert on myocarditis and the two most widely used COVID-19 shots, according to the newly obtained document, which is being made public for the first time by The Epoch Times.
“This is the most recent draft of an alert as discussed. Happy to discuss,” Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, the CDC’s top official for equity in COVID-19 data and engagement, told two other high-ranking CDC colleagues in the email.
The CDC drafted an alert on COVID-19 vaccines but never sent it, this email shows. (CDC via The Epoch Times)
It was titled “draft alert on myocarditis and mRNA vaccines.”
The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are made with modified messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.
The draft alert was attached to the email. The Epoch Times is working to acquire the draft alert.
“This censorship of a proposed alert in May of 2021 is just one more example of our regulatory agencies’ repeated pattern of behavior to censor any information that serves to counter the narrative that the COVID-19 vaccinations are ’safe and effective,’” Dr. Joel Wallskog, co-chair of the vaccine-injured advocacy group React19, told The Epoch Times via email.
The CDC started receiving reports of post-vaccination myocarditis in January 2021 and either failed to detect or ignored a safety signal for myocarditis and the mRNA shots the following month, previous reporting from the Epoch Times showed. The agency also hid a warning from Israel, the country that first vaccinated young people, who face the highest risk of myocarditis from
The CDC and other agencies have also repeatedly not disclosed other information that undermines their promotion of the vaccines, including how many COVID-19 cases there were among the vaccinated.
The newly disclosed email is dated May 21, 2021. That’s three days before a CDC workgroup acknowledged for the first time that the number of reported myocarditis cases after COVID-19 vaccination was higher than expected, and a week before the CDC said it was still recommending that virtually all Americans 12 years and up receive a vaccine.
Dr. Daskalakis and his two colleagues, Drs. Henry Walke and John Brooks, responded to requests for comment through a spokesperson.
“CDC uses a variety of ways to inform the public of potential vaccine safety concerns. A HAN is one method,” the spokesperson said.
The agency ultimately chose to issue in May 2021 a document called “clinical considerations,” which stated that there was an increased number of reported myocarditis cases after mRNA vaccination but emphasized the CDC was still recommending vaccination for virtually all people above age 11.
The CDC’s media office declined to outline how the CDC made sure the same people who would have received a HAN saw the document.
“The clinical consideration reached the provider audience as the HAN would have,” a spokesperson alleged.
“A clinical consideration is useful when information needs to be updated as circumstances evolve, and more data is collected and evaluated.”
Double Standard?
The Health Alert Network has been sending messages since at least 2001, according to an archive of the alerts. The CDC says the network is the agency’s “primary method of sharing cleared information about urgent public health incidents with public information officers; federal, state, territorial, and local public health practitioners; clinicians; and public health laboratories.”
The CDC issued an alert on Jan. 8, 2020, for what became known as COVID-19, providing several updates in the subsequent months on the illness. The agency also shared alerts on testing for COVID-19, travel on cruise ships, and a rare disease called MIS-C linked to COVID-19.
The first alert related to COVID-19 vaccines was issued on April 13, 2021. It was for a combination of blood clotting and low platelet levels after Johnson & Johnson vaccination.
The message noted six cases of the combination of conditions, cerebral venous sinus thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS), had occurred in women after receipt of the shot and that one had died. Authorities advised doctors and officials to stop administering the vaccine while a safety review was conducted.
One month later, the CDC officials considered the alert for COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis. By that time, hundreds of cases had been reported in Israel, the United States, and other countries, including two deaths in Israel and other deaths in the United States.
“That’s a double standard,” Dr. Tracy Hoeg, an epidemiologist based in California who was one of the first U.S. experts to challenge the CDC narrative on post-vaccination myocarditis, told The Epoch Times.
“Why would they issue one for the J&J vaccine for the blood clots but not for myocarditis post-mRNA vaccination? We had data from our own Department of Defense at this time indicating it was a real safety signal and two fatal post-Pfizer vaccination myocarditis cases had already been reported in Israel.”
Dr. Hoeg said CDC officials involved in the draft should testify.
“I think it’s going to be crucial to figure out who decided that the alert shouldn’t be sent after all, after they had already apparently written it,” Dr. Hoeg said.
“It would be nice to have one of the people included on the email testify before Congress about how it was determined the alert about post-RNA vaccination myocarditis should not be released.”
The U.S. House of Representatives Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, which is investigating the U.S. response to the pandemic, declined to comment.
The CDC later sent alert multiplealertsencouraging COVID-19 vaccination. None mentioned myocarditis.
end
VERY IMPORTANT: THIS LOOKS LIKE A.D.E. AND IT WILL BE DEADLY
Hospitals are seeing a new disease that affects all ages, displays “all flu symptoms & swelling in their legs, water in their lungs, fluid in their heart.”
I wish I was coming to everyone with something positive but I must let you know about some new COVID/vaccine horror stories that are being ignored.
Specifically a new “disease” that seems to be going around and impacting a considerable amount of people. I use disease in quotes because it’s not confirmed only speculation. To me it sounds like congestive heart failure.
Alarming reports from healthcare facilities across the country detail an influx of patients presenting with flu-like symptoms. Notably, these individuals exhibit lower limb edema, pulmonary edema, and pericardial effusion. Meaning these people have flu like symptoms in addition to fluid in the lungs, around the heart and swelling in the legs, which are not typical presentations of the flu.
A nurse group in New Jersey reported a staggering 70 to 80 patients a day are getting fluid removed at one local hospital.
Nurses in Miami are concerned too.
Miami Hospital Rooms Are Seeing New Disease That Affects All Ages, Displays “All flu symptoms & swelling in their legs, water in their lungs, fluid in their heart, etc”
“They’re keeping it from the news, they don’t want you to know what’s really going on”
Here is a video of a nurses firsthand account of what she’s seeing in Miami area hospital emergency rooms right now.
“So the news is not talking about this, but there is something going around.
Something else that they infected us with, and it’s not COVID. It’s not the flu. It’s not RSV. All all the typical cold symptoms, sore throat, body aches, fever, cough, congestion, etc. But when they come in to the ER, they have swelling in their legs, um, water in their lungs, fluid in their heart, etc.
And we’re talking people of all ages, including very young people. But they don’t want you to know what’s really going on, so they’re not putting it in the news. I’m telling you, the entire ER where I work at is so full to capacity.”
It’s alarming to see so many people with the same issues.
The questions that need to be answered is this is mRNA vax related? Are we now witnessing the effects of an untested experimental product leading to reduced heart function?
Or is the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 warned by many including Geert Vanden Bossche?
Or is this something else entirely. (Disease X)
This sounds like a good time to remind everyone one to stock up on VITAMIN D and other supplements like Vitamin C and Zinc to keep your immune system in top shape this winter season. Vitamin D plays a key role in your immune system and most people do not get enough during the winter. Vitamin D supplementation has a substantial protective effect against hospitalization and mortality from COVID-19 and it’s actually safe and effective.
Back to the mystery illness. I realize this post will leave some with more questions than answers. I will continue to research this. If anyone has any experiences with similar symptoms or knows anything please comment down below.
What is going on? What are everyone’s thoughts?
Stay safe and healthy everyone.
Please consider upgrading your subscription to Dr. Panda’s Substack as a paying or founding member so I can continue to bring you these important truths.
was never true & we fell for it! From the fraud virus details, lab-leak, all of it, to deadly lockdowns, to masks, to the deadly mRNA technology based mRNA vaccine (Malone, Bourla et al.) to medical
treatment of our peoples…we killed most by how badly, how inhumanely we treated vulnerable people who should have never entered the COVID protocol of sedation, isolation, Remdesivir, and ventilator…all of it killed granny! Killed otherwise healthy people. it was all a lie…
it is done, do not trust or believe anything the media or your government tells you about COVID or any disease X or any more public health…they are damn 100% liars, trust no doctor, never ever trust your medical doctor again…they helped kill innocent people…to keep their salaries and grants…
Two of the greatest disasters happened under Trump and he has to explain how that happened and how he will ensure does not again and what he will do differently and how he will make people ‘whole’ again…reverse liability protection under PREP ACT retroactive to Feb 2020, implement a victim compensation fund for all harmed by lockdowns and vaccine, ensure that all who did wrong are investigated and punishments implemented in 6 months from taking office…these he must do!
There are many imperfections in Trump like each of you reading here…yet he is the best option we have, and we will get one day the right type of people who will do good for America, the world…but whats on deck now is a clown car and we have a world on fire…I do think he was misled, not a bad person…not….and we can talk for days on this…but he is responsible and must fix it all…I trust no republican or democrat congressperson or senator.
OWS (Operation Warp Speed) was run out of 7th floor of HHS building in 2020 when my office was on 6th floor of HHS, just below; I dealt with Moncef, all, it was 100% military who was in all meetings!
On January 7, 2024, my research uncovered an official Department of Defense publication (DoD) from May 15, 2020, describing the masterplan for Operation WARP Speed, confirming DoD’s unprecedented role in running Warp Speed as a military operation:(1…
8 days ago · 246 likes · 186 comments · Dr. Peter and Ginger Breggin
DOD ran Warp Speed from its inception, sidelining the FDA and drug companies
DoD’s unprecedented role in running Warp Speed as a military operation–the military framework and leadership of Operation Warp Speed
‘On January 7, 2024, my research uncovered an official Department of Defense publication (DoD) from May 15, 2020, describing the masterplan for Operation WARP Speed, confirming DoD’s unprecedented role in running Warp Speed as a military operation:(1)
has all been designed to fail, nothing worked, no lockdown lunatic policy, no mask, nothing, in fact caused harms, they harmed & killed us with no basis, an over-cycled PCR-induced fake pandemic!
Had we done nothing, no one would have noticed this, as it was ALWAYS circulating benigningly. Diamond Princess, USS Kidd, USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier,told us clearly this was a non-issue.Had we done nothing, just commonsense reasonable precautions, we would have killed far fewer people. Our response and killer doctor medical management of people killed them.
We created a pandemic out of nothing, there was no pandemic. Our denial of treatment (only COVID beds), deadly vaccine, the deadly lockdowns, and how our doctors and hospitals killed them via isolation, sedation, toxic drugs, ventilator.
UFC Fighter Gives Epic Beatdown to Canadian Reporter UFC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland advised a Canadian MMA reporter to “go f**k” himself after he tried to lecture him about his “homophobic” remarks. Strickland, who will make his first championship defense against South Africa’s Dricus Du Plessis on Saturday, has earned a reputation as one of the UFC’s most opinionated fighters. Strickland has previously slammed foreign governments for their COVID … READ THE FULL REPORT
NBC Accused of Editing Out ‘Jesus Christ’ from Christian NFL QB’s Interview NBC is getting blowback for reportedly censoring a reference to Jesus Christ from Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud’s postgame interview. Stroud, a rising star in his rookie NFL season, allegedly mentioned Jesus Christ during his speech, but this portion was apparently cut from the broadcast. “First and foremost, I just want to give glorious praise to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. I … READ THE FULL REPORT
CDC Email Sought to Alert Public About Risk of Myocarditis from Covid Vaccines, But Failed to Do So The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) planned to notify state and local authorities about a growing link between heart inflammation and COVID-19 vaccinations in May 2021, but ultimately did not do so. According to the CDC, as well as extensive scientific research, all four COVID-19 vaccinations now available or formerly accessible in the United States may induce … READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump’s Attorneys File ‘Bombshell’ Motion Compelling Discovery of Documents Showing Biden CollusionDonald Trump’s attorneys have filed a “bombshell” motion to discover documents that would allegedly show political collusion between the Department of Justice and the Biden administration. The legal attempt to uncover a potential cover-up between Special Counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution team and the White House was reported on Tuesday. “Trump’s attorneys tonight in classified docs case file bombshell motion for …READ THE FULL REPORT
Covid Experts Sound Alarm Over New Viral Strain That is ‘100% Lethal’ in Chinese Lab ExperimentsChinese scientists have been experimenting with a mutant coronavirus strain that is completely fatal in ‘humanized’ mice, despite worries that such research may ignite another pandemic. Scientists in Beijing, who are associated to the Chinese military, cloned a Covid-like virus found in pangolins called GX_P2V and utilized it to infect mice, the Daily Mail reported on Tuesday. The mice had …READ THE FULL REPORT
ABC News Cancels New Hampshire GOP Primary DebateABC News and WMUR’s GOP primary debate, scheduled to be held in New Hampshire on Thursday before of the state’s primary voting, has been canceled. “Our intent was to host a debate coming out of the Iowa caucuses, but we always knew that would be contingent on the candidates and the outcome of the race. As a result, while our robust election coverage …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0876 UP .0009
USA/ YEN 147.94 DOWN 0.197 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2679 UP .0003
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3500 DOWN .0002 (CDN DOLLAR UP 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.17 PTS OR 0.43%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 114.89 PTS OR 0.75%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.42% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 114.89 PTS OR 0.75%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.17 PTS OR 0.43%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.42%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 11.58 OR 0.03%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2013.60
silver:$22.63
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103,18 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1964
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2194)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.13 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.647…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.117% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.339 UP 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.344 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 16.20 PTS OR 0.222%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 126.38 PTS OR 0.77%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 84.11 PTS OR 1.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.30 PTS OR 0.17%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 249.33 PTS OR 0.83%
WTI Oil price 73.23 12: EST
Brent Oil: 78.00 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.96; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 1//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3030 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.953 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0866 DOWN .0020 0.0020 OR 20 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2692 UP .0015 or 15 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9755% down 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.640%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148,23 UP 0.098//YEN DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3500 DOWN 0.0020 CDN dollar UP 20 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.94
Brent OIL: 78.99
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.140%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.376%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.352%
USA dollar index: 103.28 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.14 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.05 DOWN 0 AND 10/100 roubles
GOLD 2020.65 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.73 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 202.01 PTS OR 0.54%
NASDAQ UP 246.41 PTS OR 1.47%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.18 DOWN .61 PTS OR 4.12%
GLD: $187.37 UP 1.53 OR 0.82%
SLV/ $20.81 UP ,16 OR 0.77%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Gain As Senate StopGap Trumps Hindenbergs, HawkSpeak, & Hard-Data ‘Bad News’
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM
While ‘soft’ data has been in free-fall recently, ‘hard’ data has been uncomfortably (for the hard-landing/recession/seven-rate-cut crowd) outperforming recently (retail sales, housing starts/permits, jobless claims all beat recently as Philly Fed survey disappointed)…
Source: Bloomberg
That hawkish tilt was helped along by more FedSpeak today – singing from the same ‘more hawkish than the market expects’ hymn-sheet – as Bostic reiterated his expectation that rate-cuts won’t begin until the third quarter.
“In such an unpredictable environment, it would be unwise to lock in an emphatic approach to monetary policy,” Bostic said in prepared remarks Thursday at an event hosted by the Atlanta Business Chronicle.
“That is why I believe we should allow events to continue to unfold before beginning the process of normalizing policy.”
“My outlook right now is for our first cut to be sometime in the third quarter this year, and we’ll just have to see how the data progress,” Bostic concluded.
This sent the odds of a March rate-cut lower still…
Source: Bloomberg
The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill to keep the government open, which prompted an immediate buying spree in stocks, lifting all the majors into the green (with Nasdaq notably outperforming and Dow and Small Caps the worst gainers)…
MAG7 stocks soared to a new record high
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks ended lower again, despite the afternoon ramp…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the 8th straight day lower for ‘most shorted’ stocks to make it the worst start to a year for those stocks since 2016…
But, while stocks swung around wildly, Bitcoin was a one-way street lower after the ETFs opened… again…
Source: Bloomberg
…now back at its lowest since the start of December…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum has held its gains relative to Bitcoin since the ETFs launched…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.25BN of net inflows since inception… and the price is down…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields continued to rise today, now all dramatically higher year-to-date with the long-end underperforming. On the day the long-end notably lagged (30Y +6bps, 2Y unch)…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) steepened back into dis-inversion…
Source: Bloomberg
In case you wondered, Stocks are at one-month highs… and so are bond yields…So bonds are unchanged since the FOMC but stocks are soaring…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day unchanged, recovering overnight losses during the early US session…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended gains after today’s inventory data with WTI pushing above $74, breaking out of its YTD range (next stop $71?)…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices tested down towards $2000 today, before bouncing back above $2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that the frequency of Hindenberg Omens is increasing significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
“Probably nothing!”
END
MORNING TRADING//
end
AFTERNOON TRADING
II USA DATA
Soft Landing? Initial Jobless Claims Plunges Near 54-Year-Low
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 08:49 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time plunged to just 187k Americans in the week-ending Jan 13th. That is the lowest since Sept 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
…and second lowest level since May 1969…
Source: Bloomberg
New York seems responsible for the huge decline claims last week (while California saw an increase in claims)…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims also continued to trend lower, hovering just above 1.8mm Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
And just like that Goldilocks dream of a soft-landing was destroyed. How does The Fed justify rate-cuts when the labor market is the ‘best’ in over 50 years?
end
Single-Family Home-Starts Plunged In December
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 08:43 AM
Despite mortgage rates having tumbled (relatively-speaking), and homebuilder sentiment picking back up post-Fed-pivot, expectations were for a plunge back to reality for Housing Starts in December after November’s unexpected surge. Permits were expected to rise only very modestly.
Analysts were right in direction but wrong in magnitude – too bearish. Housing starts declined 4.3% MoM (vs -8.7% MoM exp and +10.8% MoM in November, a big downward revision from the initial +14.8% MoM). Building permits also rose more than expected (+1.9% MoM vs +0.6% exp but saw November’s 2.5% MoM decline upwardly revised to -2.1% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
On a SAAR basis, Housing Starts and Building Permits are higher YoY
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, single-family permits rose for the 12th month in a row (i.e. every month in 2023) but single-family home starts plunged 8.6% MoM after surging 15.4% MoM in November… that is the biggest monthly decline since July 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps the optimism among homebuilders about future sales is a little overdone given their actions?
Source: Bloomberg
And why would starts be down so much if rates are tumbling?
Source: Bloomberg
Still along way to go for mortgages to be affordable…
Source: Bloomberg
Will less supply of new homes do anything to help the Shelter component of CPI (hint – no!).
end
Hard data continues to show a slowing economy
(zerohedge/Philly Mfg Index)
Dis-Inflation & Disappointment For Philly Fed Survey In January
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 09:31 AM
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region continued to decline in January (for the 18th month of the last 20). The headline Philly Fed survey printed -10.6 (worse than the -6.5 expected) and apart from the insane outlier spike in August, this indicator screams recession…
Source: Bloomberg
More worrying is the fact that hope appears to be dwindling fast as the six-month-forecast for the survey plunged back into contraction (from +12.6 to -4.00)…
Source: Bloomberg
Philly Fed’s demise is consistent with the collapse of hope as ‘soft’ survey data has slumped in the last month, back to its weakest since July (as ‘hard’ data improves relative to expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the bright side for the doves, the dis-inflationary trend remains in tact as priced paid and prices received both plunged in January. However, we highlight the fact that Philly businesses expect price pressure to return in the next six months…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, the ‘bad news’ in this report should buoy stocks and bonds (lower inflation and lower growth enables sooner and faster cuts)… But will it.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Biden Is Fast-Tracking His Student-Loan-Forgiveness Plan
Last week, the Biden-Harris Administration announced a plan to accelerate the forgiveness timeline for the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan.
Starting next month, eligible borrowers – those who have made at least 10 years of monthly payments and initially borrowed $12,000 or less for college expenses – will have their entire balances forgiven.
The Education Department is fast-tracking this debt relief months ahead of the original July 1, 2024 date.
“Beyond being the most affordable student loan repayment plan ever available, the Biden-Harris Administration designed the SAVE Plan to put community college students and other low-balance borrowers on a faster track to debt forgiveness than ever before,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona.
The Education Department urges all borrowers who originally borrowed $12,000 or less to apply for SAVE as soon as possible.
The loans of eligible recipients will be discharged automatically, requiring no action on their part.
“I want folks to recognize [that it takes] 10 minutes to fill out the SAVE plan, and you could be getting an email as early as February telling you that your debt is cleared out,” Cardona said.
SAVE enrollments are on the rise
SAVE—an income-driven repayment plan that adjusts borrowers’ monthly payments based on income and family size—has seen a massive surge in enrollment lately.
As of early January, 6.9 million borrowers had already enrolled in the SAVE Plan, more than double the number of people who enrolled in the Revised Pay As You Earn (REPAYE) plan that the SAVE Plan replaced in August.
Borrowers on SAVE are repaying an estimated $374 billion in federal student loans, which amounts to nearly 30% of all Direct Loans dollars in repayment, deferment, or forbearance.
SAVE enrollees have been reporting significant financial benefits compared to the previous REPAYE Plan, with 3.9 million reportedly having a $0 payment and others saving an estimated $117 a month.
“With lower monthly payments, protection from runaway interest, and faster timelines to debt forgiveness, President Biden’s SAVE plan is not only benefiting millions of current borrowers but also providing the students of today and tomorrow with a more affordable pathway to college degrees and credentials,” Cardona said.
More forgiveness to come?
The SAVE Plan forgiveness is yet another initiative by the Biden-Harris Administration to take the burden of student debt off Americans’ shoulders.
According to Creditnews Student Debt Tracker, the administration has already approved nearly $132 billion in targeted relief for over 3.6 million borrowers.
Next up are the 6.9 million SAVE borrowers, with potentially more to come as Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign goes into full swing.
END
A clear sign that the uSA has or will enter a recession: net savings is negative
(Mises)
Yet Another Recession Red Flag: Net Saving Is Negative
The current period of negative net savings is only the third time that net saving has gone negative in more than 75 years.
Looking back to the late 1940s, we find that the overall trend in net saving increased during the post-war period of economic retrenchment in the 1950s and early 60s.
With the Guns and Butter era of the late 1960s, however, net saving went into decline, and the general downward trend has continued ever since, following a similar trend to mounting federal deficits.
The only other times net saving has gone negative is in the lead-up to the great recession, and during the covid recession.
In general, net saving tends to fall steeply in the early periods of recessions, and this can be seen in the graph, going back several cycles. (A similar trend exists for gross saving as a percent of GNI.) This likely reflects a few different trends, one being the fact that the federal government continues to go more deeply into the red when tax revenues are weak as they are now.
But one thing is clear: net saving has worsened rapidly since the fourth quarter of 2020, dropping from 2.9 percent in that quarter to -0.7 percent in the third quarter of last year.
Such a rapid drop virtually always indicates the US has either entered a recession or will soon enter one.
end
Trump Vows To “Never Allow” A Central Bank Digital Currency
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 11:05 PM
Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed to never allow the use of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), as it would “give the government absolute control over your money.”
“This would be a dangerous threat to freedom – and I will stop it from coming to America. We are also going to put in place strong protections to stop banks and regulators from trying to de-bank you for your political beliefs. That will never happen while I am your president,” Trump told a crowd in Portsmouth, New Hampshire – as first reported by The National Pulse.
Trump’s comments come hours after Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) revealed that federal agencies have been flagging financial transactions using politically sensitive words such as “MAGA” and “Trump” in yet another egregious example of the establishment targeting political rivals.
As we’ve reported for years, CBDCs – touted by globalists such as French Central Bank deputy governor Denis Beau as “the catalyst for improving cross-border payments by enabling the build-up of a new international monetary system” – are in fact the ultimate tools of oppression.
Central bank digital currencies are part of a broader “war on cash.”
A cashless society is sold on the promise of providing a safe, convenient, and more secure alternative to physical cash. We’re also told it will help stop dangerous criminals who like the intractability of cash.
But there is a darker side – the promise of control.
The elimination of cash creates the potential for the government to track and control consumer spending. Digital economies would also make it even easier for central banks to engage in manipulative monetary policies such as negative interest rates.
But they seem to be an inevitability, as according to data from the Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker, 130 countries – representing over 98% of global gross domestic product – are exploring or developing CBDCs, marking an outsized increase from just a few years ago.
They’re even starting to experiment with them for international settlement… In November, Zurich issued a CHF 100 million ($113m) digital bond via the SIX Digital Exchange – the most distinctive aspect of which is that it settles using a wholesale central bank digital currency (wholesale CBDC) issued by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Resistance!
Last April, Democratic Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who is now working to create a new political party to qualify for the ballot in various states), vehemently opposed the Fed’s announcement of a “FedNow” CBDC, calling it a “slippery slope to financial slavery and political tyranny.”
“While cash transactions are anonymous, a #CBDC will allow the government to surveil all our private financial affairs. The central bank will have the power to enforce dollar limits on our transactions restricting where you can send money, where you can spend it, and when money expires,” he wrote on X. “A CBDC tied to digital ID and social credit score will allow the government to freeze your assets or limit your spending to approved vendors if you fail to comply with arbitrary diktats, i.e. vaccine mandates.”
In July, Kennedy promised to back the US Dollar with Bitcoin if he’s elected president.
Also in July, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) vowed to kill FedCoin on “day one” of his presidency, telling Tucker Carlson at the Family Leadership Summit in Iowa, “If I am the president, on day one, we will nix central bank digital currency. Done. Dead. Not happening in this country,” adding “They want to get rid of cash. They want no cryptocurrency. They want [CBDCs] to be the sole form of legal tender. It will allow them to prohibit ‘undesirable purchases’ like fuel and ammunition.”
More recently, several states opposed to CBDC have launched bills which would prohibit classifying digital currency as money.
If successful, Utah, South Carolina, South Dakota and Tennessee would become the first states to exclude CBDC as a medium exchange – potentially creating significant roadblocks to CBDC in the United States.
Finally, for those still unsure, we don’t need to look as far as China to understand the implications here in the West. As Laura Dodsworth wrote in October of the dystopian nature of CBDCs, via The Brownstone Institute:
In 2019, Mastercard and Doconomy launched a credit card with a carbon footprint calculator that can switch off your spending when you reach your carbon max. This functionality is voluntary, but it could be an automatic aspect of a CBDC.
Tom Mutton, a director at the Bank of England, said that the Government would be required to make the final decision on whether a UK CBDC should be programmable. Sir Jon Cunliffe, a deputy Governor at the Bank, said:
“You could think of giving your children pocket money, but programming the money so that it couldn’t be used for sweets. There is a whole range of things that money could do, programmable money, which we cannot do with the current technology.”
As this quote reveals, CBDCs won’t just alter our relationship with money but with government. Governments around the world have shown increasingly authoritarian tendencies during the management of the Covid pandemic, and more recently to discourage driving in cities. Behavioural science has been leveraged to manipulate, incentivise and coerce us into behaving as model citizens. Do we want to negotiate with Daddy State to be allowed to spend our ‘pocket money’ as we wish?
An account-based CBDC would give the government enormous power over your money as your identity is connected to the money. A 2020 Bank of England discussion paper gave examples of programmability, for example that smart cars could automatically pay for fuel directly at the dispensing pump, with automated taxation and charitable donations at point of sale.
That all sounds very convenient. But politicians pushing Net Zero goals on an unwilling population could choose to go a step further. If you insist on keeping your private car, despite the inconvenient 20 MPH speed limits, the ULEZ and congestion charges, and the Low Traffic Neighbourhood barriers, they could simply dictate a maximum fuel spend in a given time period. Just ten of your Britcoins on petrol this month, Sir, no more driving for you.
Interestingly, we have not heard from the Biden administration with regard their support (or lack thereof) of CDBCs. Given their recent authoritarian over-steps, it shouldn’t be too hard to guess which side of the ‘more centralized power and control’ vs ‘freedom and personal sovereignty’ fence they might come down on.
END
Senate Passes Stopgap, But House Freedom Caucus Insists On Border Measures
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 02:42 PM
The Senate on Thursday passed a stopgap government funding bill by a vote of 77-18 that will extend a two-tiered shutdown from Jan. 19 and Feb 2, to March 1, and March 8.
The bill, which still has to pass the House, may be held up by demands from the House Freedom Caucus – which has made a last-minute appeal to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to add an amendment vote on border and migration policy measures.
The move could throw a wrench into plans to avoid the first phase of the shutdown on Friday, however a spokesperson for Johnson suggested there’s nothing to worry about (unless you care about unchecked illegal immigration).
“The plan has not changed. The House is voting on the stop gap measure tonight to keep the government open,” wrote Johnson spox Raj Shah on X in response to the Freedom Caucus’ demands.
Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) said on Thursday that “The Speaker is considering it, and he’s working through the mechanics to make sure that … we have the best path forward on how to do it within the legislative process.”
According to The Hill, Good and Johnson’s meeting came soon after word broke that the House would vote on a “clean” funding extension Thursday afternoon following the Senate vote.
The lower chamber canceled scheduled votes Friday — the day of the partial government shutdown deadline — ahead of expected snow that could complicate lawmakers’ travel plans.
It also comes as Johnson faces pressure from hard-line conservatives and former President Trump to reject a bipartisan package being crafted in the Senate that would pair some border and migration policy changes with aid to Ukraine. -The Hill
The proposed amendment would consist of the H.R. 2 Secure the Border Act which was passed by the House last year – which includes restrictions to the asylum process, and resumes construction of former President Donald Trump’s border wall on the US-Mexico border. The amendment does not include mandatory E-Verify provisions that moderates shied away from.
The current expectation is that Johnson will bring the “clean” bill up under a fast-track suspension of the rules process, which requires two-thirds of the House to pass, and does not allow for amendments. The process has been used in the past to force through funding measures that conservatives can’t block.
In order to consider the Freedom Caucus’ proposal, House Republicans would need to schedule an emergency House Rules Committee meeting – likely chewing up much more floor time.
“There’s bipartisan consensus in the House that the border invasion is a problem and the president’s policies are causing it and we [need] to change,” said Freedom Caucus member Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), who noted that 14 Democrats supported a GOP-led resolution Wednesday denouncing Biden’s “open-border policies.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
Judge Threatens To Kick Trump Out Of Courtroom; Trump Says He Would ‘Love It’
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 03:40 PM
A Manhattan judge overseeing the defamation case against Donald Trump warned that he would toss the former president out of the courtroom if he kept making snarky comments that the jury could hear.
“Mr. Trump has a right to be present here,” said Judge Lewis A. Kaplan. “That right can be forfeited and it can be forfeited if he is disruptive, which is what has been reported to me, and if he disregards court orders.”
Kaplan then addressed Trump directly, saying: “Mr. Trump, I hope I don’t have to consider excluding you from the trial,” to which Trump replied: “I would love it.”
“I understand you’re probably very eager for me to do that because you just can’t control yourself,” Kaplan replied, to which Trump shot back “You can’t either.“
The exchange followed an objection raised by Shawn Crowley, one of E. Jean Carroll’s attorneys, over the issue of Trump speaking loudly enough to potentially be within earshot of the jury, after Trump told his attorney that Carroll’s allegation “really is a con job” and a “witch hunt,” Crowley told the judge.
Carroll has been testifying under direct examination for hours Wednesday, telling jurors that her life was upended by Trump’s defamatory statements about her after she accused him in 2019 of raping her in the mid-1990s.
Judge Kaplan also repeatedly admonished Habba during the proceeding, including during a testy exchange at the beginning of the day before the jury entered the courtroom. –The Messenger
Kaplan also told Habba to “sit down” after she requested an adjournment tomorrow so Trump could attend his mother-in-law’s funeral – a request Kaplan had previously denied.
Wednesday’s trial began after Trump denied Carroll’s claim that he had raped her in a Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. Trump claimed he didn’t know Carroll, and said that she only branded him as a rapist to boost sales of her memoir.
Carroll, 80, testified that Trump’s lies destroyed her reputation for telling he truth, and is seeking $10 million on top of a May award of $5 million.
“I am here because Donald Trump assaulted me, and when I wrote about it, he said it never happened,” Carroll said, adding “He lied, and it shattered my reputation.”
She fought back tears when her lawyer Roberta Kaplan, who is not related to the judge, showed her a message from an unknown sender suggesting that she stick a gun in her mouth and pull the trigger.
“I was attacked on Twitter, I was attacked on Facebook, I was attacked on news blogs, I was brutally attacked in messages,” Carroll said. “It was a new world.”
Carroll said she now gets just eight letters a month from readers seeking advice, down from 200, and that the attacks haven’t let up.
“Yesterday I opened up Twitter, and it said ‘hey lady, you’re a fraud,'” Carroll said. “Now I’m known as a liar, a fraud and a whack job.“
Asked if she regretted speaking up, Carroll said: “Only momentarily. I am very glad I took action.” -Reuters
end
Jim Jordan Demands Answers After Biden Admin Caught Flagging “MAGA” And “Trump” To Track Political Opponents’ Financial Transactions
WEDNESDAY, JAN 17, 2024 – 07:05 PM
Jim Jordan, Chairman of the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on Wednesday, announced that it had obtained documents revealing that federal agencies have flagged financial transactions for financial institutions for people using politically sensitive words such as “MAGA” and Trump.”
In a letter to Noah Bishoff – who was a former FinCEN Director (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) – and now an Anti Money Laundering (AML) officer at fintech company Plaid, Inc. Jordan described situations in which Americans buying bibles or shopping at sporting good stores might find their transactions flagged.
New documents obtained by the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government reveal that the federal government flagged terms like “MAGA” and “TRUMP” for financial institutions if Americans used those phrases when completing transactions. Individuals who shopped at stores like Cabela’s or Dick’s Sporting Goods, or purchased religious texts like a bible, may also have had their transactions flagged. This kind of pervasive financial surveillance, carried out in coordination with and at the request of federal law enforcement, into Americans’ private transactions is alarming and raises serious concerns about the FBI’s respect for fundamental civil liberties. -Judiciary.house.gov
“The Committee and Select Subcommittee have obtained documents indicating that following January 6, 2021, FinCEN distributed materials to financial institutions that, among other things, outline the ‘typologies’ of various persons of interest and provide financial institutions with suggested search terms and Merchant Category Codes (MCCs) for identifying transactions on behalf of federal law enforcement,” reads the letter.
“These materials included a document recommending the use of generic terms like ‘TRUMP’ and ‘MAGA’ to ‘search Zelle payment messages’ as well as a ‘prior FinCEN analysis’ of ‘Lone Actor/Homegrown Violent Extremism Indicators,” the letter continues. “According to this analysis, FinCEN warned financial institutions of ‘extremism’ indicators that include ‘transportation charges, such as bus tickets, rental cars, or plane tickets, for travel to areas with no apparent purpose,’ or ‘the purchase of books (including religious texts) and subscriptions to other media containing extremist views.’ In other words, FinCEN urged large financial institutions to comb through the private transactions of their customers for suspicious charges on the basis of protected political and religious expression.”
The Committee announced that it’s seeking interviews with senior intelligence officials, including Bishoff.
end
Biden Caught In Huge Rigging Of EV Carbon Credits At Taxpayer Expense
Tesla is a huge beneficiary of an improper “no legal basis” Biden-sponsored subsidy. This is a massive scandal reminiscent of the diesel-emissions cheating that rocked Germany.
Carbon Tax Credits
The Biden administration and the Department of Energy colluded to rig estimated gas mileage from EVs.
For example, a Tesla that gets the equivalent of 65 MPG, receives tax credits as if the Tesla gets 430 MPG.
It’s hard to think of a worse environmental scandal in recent years than Volkswagen’s 2015 diesel-emissions cheating. The German automaker was rightly pursued by regulators, enforcement agencies and class-action lawyers.
The scandal ended up costing Volkswagen an estimated $33 billion in fines and financial settlements—and revealed that diesel-emissions cheating was endemic.
When it comes to electric cars, the government has a cheating scandal of its own. Under an Energy Department rule, carmakers can arbitrarily multiply the efficiency of electric cars by 6.67. This means that although a 2022 Tesla Model Y tests at the equivalent of about 65 miles per gallon in a laboratory (roughly the same as a hybrid), it is counted as having an absurdly high compliance value of 430 mpg. That number has no basis in reality or law.
Until recently, this subsidy was a Washington secret. Carmakers and regulators liked it that way. Regulators could announce what sounded like stringent targets, and carmakers would nod along, knowing they could comply by making electric cars with arbitrarily boosted compliance values. Consumers would unknowingly foot the bill.
The secret is out. After environmental groups pointed out the illegality of this charade, the Energy Department proposed eliminating the 6.67 multiplier for electric cars, recognizing that the number “lacks legal support” and has “no basis.” [Let’s not mince words, how about … illegal subsidy]
Carmakers have panicked and asked the Biden administration to delay any return to legal or engineering reality. That is understandable. Without the multiplier, the Transportation Department’s proposed rules are completely unattainable. But workable rules don’t require government-created cheat codes. Carmakers should confront that problem head on.
Illegal Credits
The Journal noted this scandal is buried deep in the Federal Register—on page 36,987 of volume 65.
Since the tax credits “lack legal support” and have “no basis”, all the beneficiaries should have to return their illegal gains.
How much is that?
Tesla’s Record Carbon Credit Sales Up 94% Year-Over-Year
While Tesla has missed this year’s third quarter on both earnings and revenue expectations since its Q2 2019 report, the EV leader reported record-breaking carbon credit sales, which the company referred to as regulatory credits.
For over 4 years, the EV maker has been drawing attention by reporting record-breaking income from selling carbon credits. The automaker reported a revenue of $554 million from the Q3 2023 sale of carbon credits, significantly contributing to its profits.
This record sales also represented a huge portion of Tesla’s net income in Q3 2023 ($1,878 million) – 29%. Most notably, its quarter three carbon credit revenue increased 94% year-over-year, marking the value of Tesla’s EV production.
Despite Elon Musk’s “paranoia” over the global economy’s instability due to ongoing wars, its soaring carbon credit income steadily contributes to its overall profits.
A 29% revenue-to-net income ratio is hard to ignore and speaks highly of the value of the credits for Tesla.
It’s not clear who exactly bought the credits and for how much, but most likely they’re sold to other car companies that miss out on emissions standards of the California Air Resources Board (CARB).
Will Tesla Have to Return Is Unwarranted Gains?
Ha! You know the answer.
However, the carbon credits it does receive are set to drop roughly 85 percent.
Now, about those Tesla profits… Anyone care to crunch some numbers assuming Biden is forced to hand out credits based on reality, not fiction?
If Biden does follow through with this nonsensical (and probably unconstitutional action), Russia will be the biggest beneficiary.
END
Fani Under Pressure: Judge In Trump-Georgia Case Orders DA To Explain Misconduct Allegations
THURSDAY, JAN 18, 2024 – 02:00 PM
The judge in the Trump-Georgia case has ordered Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) to answer to accusations that she hired her romantic partner as a top prosecutor on the case.
Judge Scot McAfee on Thursday ordered Willis to respond to the allegations in writing by Feb. 2, and has scheduled a hearing on the matter for Feb. 15.
The accusation, first found in a court filing by attorney and Trump co-defendant Mike Roman, accuses Willis of hiring her paramour Nathan Wade – whose involvement, Roman argues, makes the indictment “fatally defective.” Roman has asked McAfee to dismiss the charges, and to block the Fulton County DA’s office from further involvement in the case.
Wade (who was hired without proper approval), is a private attorney in the midst of a divorce who “has little to no experience trying felony cases, much less complex RICO actions,” according to a 127-page filing in former President Donald Trump’s 2020 election trial in Georgia.
Wade ended up pocketing nearly $700,000 from Fulton county taxpayers – with which he allegedly took Willis on lavish vacations. He also billed taxpayers $2,000 to talk to the Biden White House about prosecuting Biden’s political opponent.
Allegations surfaced last week from one of Trump’s co-defendants, Mike Roman, a political operative who served as Trump’s director of Election Day operations on his 2020 reelection campaign, who accused Willis and Wade of engaging in an “improper” romantic relationship.
Citing “sources close” to both Willis and Wade, Roman’s lawyer, Ashleigh Merchant, claimed the pair have been involved in an “ongoing, personal and romantic relationship,” and went on vacations together. The filings argued the alleged relationship, which Merchant claims started before the election interference began, makes the indictment “fatally defective” and requests it be dismissed. –The Hill
“I’m a little confused. I appointed three special counselors. It’s my right to do, paid them all the same hourly rate. They only attack one.”
“I hired one white woman, a good personal friend and a great lawyer, a superstar, I tell you. I hired one white man — brilliant — my friend and a great lawyer. And I hired one Black man, another superstar, a great friend and a great lawyer,” she continued, without referencing Wade by name.
“The Black man I chose has been a judge for more than 10 years, run[s] a private practice more than 20 [years],” said Willis. “Represented businesses in civil litigation … served a prosecutor, a criminal defense lawyer, special assistant attorney general.”
Willis then pretended to talk to God, asking: “God, isn’t it them who’s playing the race card when they only question one?”
How many of the other attorneys was Fani (allegedly) banging?
More recently we learned that Fani was coordinating with the Jan. 6 committee to shape her case against Trump.
In mid-April of 2022, Committee staff quietly met with attorneys working on the case in Fulton County for DA Fani Willis, right around the time she was preparing to convene a special grand jury investigation – during which she employed her alleged paramour, Nathan Wade, who would also coordinate with the Biden White House on their case.
So – Fani coordinated with both the J6 committee and the White House, who helped them assemble their case against the former president.
END
Hunter Biden Not Protected From Gun Charges By 2nd Amendment: Federal Prosecutors
The U.S. Constitution’s Second Amendment does not protect President Joe Biden’s son from felony gun charges, federal prosecutors said in a new brief.
“Anglo-American law has long recognized that the government may disarm those who, by their conduct or characteristics, present an increased risk to public safety if they possess firearms,” prosecutors said in the Jan. 16 filing. That means a U.S. law against gun ownership by people who use or are addicted to drugs can still stand under the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision that struck down restrictions in New York, they added.
Hunter Biden, 53, is facing three felony counts after certifying on a form in 2018 that he was not a user of or addicted to drugs. Mr. Biden later wrote in his memoir that he was using drugs at the time.
But lawyers for the defendant argued in late 2023 that the statute Mr. Biden was charged with violating is not constitutional under court precedent, including the Supreme Court decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen.
“In truth, the statute is indefensible under the Bruen framework,” they wrote in a motion to dismiss.
Lawyers referenced a recent appeals court ruling in favor of Patrick Daniels Jr. from Mississippi. Mr. Daniels was convicted of violating the same law because he was a marijuana user who owned a gun.
Mr. Daniels challenged the law in question, 18 U.S.C. §922(g)(3), under the new Bruen framework, and the court said that the government failed to demonstrate the existence of laws from around the time of America’s founding that prohibited gun ownership for intoxicated individuals.
While several states passed similar laws after the Second Amendment was adopted, such a small number doesn’t support a tradition, the court said. “In short, neither the restrictions on the mentally ill nor the regulatory tradition surrounding intoxication can justify Daniels’s conviction,” the ruling stated.
But prosecutors said Tuesday that the case is nonbinding, noting that the Supreme Court has taken it up but has yet to rule on the matter.
They said that many laws throughout history barred gun ownership among people deemed to present a danger to the public and that the choice by Congress to prohibit ownership by drug users “falls firmly within longstanding historical traditions and accords with the Second Amendment.”
That includes the 1662 Militia Act, enacted by the English Parliament, and laws in the 1800s in the United States that prevented intoxicated people from carrying guns, prosecutors said.
“In short, the prohibitions contained in § 922(g) are simply the latest step in a lengthy history of firearm regulation aimed at addressing the threat to public safety by individuals whose conduct or characteristics present an increased risk of danger when possessing a firearm,” prosecutors said, making the law in question “relevantly similar” to the historical laws, a criteria outlined in Bruen.
Studies show that drugs impair physical and mental function and “it is practically beyond reasonable dispute that firearm possession while operating under significant cognitive impairment in critical areas like attention, speed of processing, emotional regulation, inhibition control, and the ability to prioritize negative long-term consequences—not to mention psychological and physiological effects like panic, paranoia, tremors, or muscle twitches—presents a significant public safety risk,” prosecutors added.
False Statements
Mr. Biden is accused of making several false statements related to the gun he bought and owned.
Mr. Biden bought a Colt Cobra 38SPL revolver on Oct. 12, 2018, from a store in Delaware.
He was presented with a form asking whether he used or was addicted to drugs. Despite his admission of drug use, he answered ‘no’. Had he answered ‘yes’, the store would have been legally prohibited from selling him the gun.
Eleven days later, Mr. Biden’s girlfriend found the weapon in his unlocked vehicle and threw the firearm and associated items into a trash can behind a grocery store in Wilmington. An elderly man discovered the items and police later obtained them from him. Authorities placed the items into “an evidence vault” and no charges were brought.
Searches of Mr. Biden’s account, undertaken as federal agents investigated him for tax crimes, uncovered evidence that led to the firearm charges. That included pictures showing drugs and texts relating to how Mr. Biden was using drugs. He later wrote in his memoir that he was addicted to drugs during the period he bought and owned the revolver.
If the gun law is struck down as unconstitutional, the false statement counts should also be dismissed, Mr. Biden has also argued through his lawyers.
“The charges for falsely checking a box on a form denying being a user of a controlled substance and causing the seller to retain that form with a falsely checked box both fall to the wayside, along with the charge for unlawful possession of a firearm, once Section 922(g)(3) is found unconstitutional,” they said.
Prosecutors urged the court to also reject that position.
They noted that earlier Supreme Court rulings have concluded that “a defendant cannot make a false statement to evade a statute the defendant believes is unconstitutional and escape criminal liability for the false statement by arguing the unconstitutionality voids his knowingly false statement.”
THE KING REPORT
The King Report January 18, 2024 Issue 7161
Independent View of the News
The Hang Seng Index tumbled over 4% and closed -3.71% on Wednesday. This is the biggest decline since November 2022. The CSI 300 closed -2.18%; the Shenzhen Comp closed -2.54%.
@HowardMortman on Tuesday: “China had a crash yesterday in their stock market. You know why? Because I won Iowa.” — Trump
China misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data GDP for the last three months of 2023 rose by 5.2%, missing analysts’ estimates of 5.3% in a Reuters poll. GDP growth for the full year was also 5.2%. Retail sales grew by 7.4% in December from a year ago, also missing expectations for 8% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9.6% in 2023, while those into infrastructure and manufacturing rose by 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively. Overall, fixed asset investment for 2023 rose by 3%, a touch above the predicted 2.9% increase…excluding people still in school, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 was 14.9%, while the rate in cities in December was 5.1%… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/china-misses-fourth-quarter-gdp-estimates-resumes-posting-youth-unemployment-data.html
UK December CPI: +0.4% m/m (-0.2% in Nov) and 4% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 3.8% were expected.
Jamie Dimon warns ‘all these very powerful forces’ will impact U.S. economy in 2024 and 2025 “Ukraine, the terrorist activity in Israel [and] the Red Sea, quantitative tightening, which I still question if we understand exactly how that works,” Dimon said… “When stock markets are up, it’s kind of like this little drug we all feel like it’s just great. But remember, we’ve had so much fiscal monetary stimulation, so I’m a little more on the cautious side.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/jamie-dimon-warns-on-us-economy-in-2024-2025.html
@Geiger_Capital: Jamie Dimon is spot on here… “I don’t like how Trump said things, but he wasn’t wrong about those critical issues. That’s why they vote for him. People should be more respectful of our fellow citizens.” Biden calling 75 million Americans “MAGA extremists” is not uniting us. https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1747608562883289371
10-year Treasury yield surges to five-week high above 4.11% after strong Dec. retail sales Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month, above economists’ estimates of 0.4%, as compiled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%, which also topped a 0.2% estimate… (Ex-Autos & Gas 0.6%, 0.3% exp) The president of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, told CNBC Wednesday that the euro zone’s central bank looked at overall financial conditions, and that “the more easing the market has already done for us, the less likely we will cut rates.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/treasury-yields-edge-higher-as-investors-monitor-data-and-fed-comments.html
Chicago-area Tesla charging stations lined with dead cars in freezing cold: ‘A bunch of dead robots out here’https://t.co/pVLxCprx1v
The NY Fang+ Index tumbled to -2.13% at 10:00 ET. Tesla was -3.5% at 9:36 ET.
ESHs vacillated between modest gains and losses until then broke down at 19:10 ET. ESHs then sank to 4769.00 at 4:12 ET, -31.75 from the 4800.75 high. After a rally to 4785.25 at 7:25 ET, ESHs fell to a daily low of 4758.00 at 9:52 ET. Conditioned traders then bought the dip, ESHs rallied to 4775.00 at 11:12 ET. ESHs then went inert until they broke down at 11:44 ET.
ESHs rebounded after falling to 4579.00 at 12:44 ET. But the bounce was modest and ended at 13:04 ET. ESHs sank to a daily low of 4746.25 at 13:49 ET; they bounced to 4764.75 at 14:44 ET. ESHs then slid to 4755.00 at 15:15 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESHs to 4774.25 at 15:56 ET; but ESHs fell to 4769.25 at the NYSE close.
USHs hit a daily high of 121 18/32 near 5 ET. They then sank to 120 12/32 at 10:34 ET. But once again, someone decided to push USHs higher into a US Treasury Auction. USHs hit 121 3/32 near 13:00 ET.
USHs then broke lower after a poor US 20-year Auction: 4.423% vs 4.415% WI. Who keeps juicing USHs into US Treasury Auctions? Qui bono? USHs fell to 120 21/32 and then went inert.
@KathyJones: Fed’s Beige Book Summary: “Economic activity declined slightly on average, employment was roughly flat, and prices increased at a modest pace since the last reporting period.“
Positive aspects of previous session For the 2nd straight session, a late manipulation truncated equity losses
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered; Tesla led the decline Bonds declined moderately
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who keeps juicing USHs into US Treasury Auctions? Commodities, ex-energy, declined sharply again. Is China’s plight getting ominous?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4732.75 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4744.23; 4714.82
How monetary policy works has changed. Textbooks should change, too. Op-ed in NYT When a bank buys Treasury bonds from the Fed, it pays with some of its reserves, which are held in what’s basically a checking account at the Fed. Before 2008, when the Fed soaked up reserves from the banks by selling bonds to them, banks that were short on reserves would have to go into the federal funds market and borrow them, driving up the interest rate on those interbank loans. That uptick would cascade through to higher interest rates across the economy, cooling growth and inflation. The global financial crisis of 2007-9 changed all that. The Fed heavily bought bonds from banks to drive down long-term interest rates, paying as usual by crediting their accounts with more reserves. The banks became so flush with reserves that no banks needed to borrow them, and the federal funds rate fell to effectively zero. To put a floor under the federal funds rate,the Fed began paying interest on banks’ reserves, reasoning correctly that no bank would lend to another bank at a rate lower than what it could earn on reserves kept at the Fed. (It later added a subfloor, the overnight reverse repurchase rate, but I’m trying to keep this simple.)… https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render
Chinese lab crafts mutant COVID-19 strain with 100% kill streak in ‘humanized’ mice: ‘Surprisingly’ rapid death – Francois Balloux, an epidemiology expert at University College London’s Genetics Institute, slammed the research as “terrible” and “scientifically totally pointless.”… https://trib.al/OnG56ni
Chinese lab had COVID-19 mapped two weeks before global outbreak: documentshttps://trib.al/MGo0zMp
The Likely Lab Leak and the Covid Cassandra After both the 1986 Challenger explosion and the 9/11 attacks, bipartisan commissions were convened to investigate the disasters. Covid has killed more than a million Americans and has cost our economy at least $14 trillion. And yet we see no great urgency to investigate the pandemic’s murky origins or prevent a recurrence… As information about the new SARS-CoV-2 virus spread through the scientific community in early 2020, many virus experts had similar suspicions. In texts and emails, scientists shared worries that the virus “looked almost engineered to infect human cells,” as one put it. The virus seemed “to have been pre-adapted for human spread since the get go,” another said. These concerns were privately shared with Fauci and other top health officials. But then, after a still-mysterious February 1 conference call that included Fauci, Collins, and about a dozen scientists, the notion that the virus might have escaped from a lab was dropped like a lit firecracker… Most of what we know about the likely Wuhan lab leak comes to us, not courtesy of the scientists and officials closest to the data, but despite their stonewalling… we must face the fact that the Covid pandemic was likely the result of a government program intended to keep us safe… Our public health elite apparently helped trigger this global disaster. And their blame-shifting and dishonesty compounded the damage. These actions also helped destroy the nation’s confidence in public health, in medicine, even in science itself. There will be no easy road back from this dangerous state of affairs. https://www.commentary.org/articles/james-meigs/likely-lab-leak-covid-cassandra/
Biden administration relists Houthis as terror organization — three years after taking group off the list (Removed from list to appease Iran at the direction of Team Obama) https://t.co/SKjcmzs5Ti
@zerohedge: (US Sec of State) Anthony Blinken is stranded in Davos because hisBoeing 737 has been deemed unsafe to fly, as an oxygen leak detected previously could not be remedied.
Today – Even though the S&P 500 Index has been within 1% of a new high for a few weeks, and it is earnings reporting season, there has been no serious push to a new high. This should be extremely concerning for equity bulls. Furthermore, bonds have been in decline since December 27.
This week, the extremely rare occurrence of falling stocks, bonds, and commodities appeared. Fed rate cuts readjustments, China, and geopolitical angst are probably the negative factors.
Equity traders will play for a rebound rally after the declines on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bulls will be emboldened to get long for Biden’s 14:15 ET address on the US economy.
Historically, stocks rally into Presidential Addresses on the economy. Thereafter depends on the speech.
Expected Economic Data: Dec Housing Starts 1.425m, Permits 1.477m; Jan Phil Fed Biz Outlook -6.5; Initial Jobless Claims 205k, Continuing Claims 1.843m; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 7:30 ET
ESHs hit -6.25; USHs are -5/32; and Feb AU is +3.50 at 18:09 ET on reports the US struck Houthi ballistic and cruise missile sites in Yemen.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4620; 100-day MA: 4484; 150-day MA: 4476; 200-day MA: 4396 DJIA 50-day MA: 36,271; 100-day MA: 35,075; 150-day MA: 34,936; 200-day MA: 34,585 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4522.06 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4707.12 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4762.82 triggers a buy signal
@mirandadevine; In a new court filing today, the DOJ confirms Hunter Biden’s laptop is real, that he left it at a computer store, and that the contents matched what they obtained from a search warrant of his iCloud. Don’t hold your breath for a retraction from Joe Biden (“It’s a Russian plant”), the #Dirty51 or myriad dishonest media operatives. They blamed Russia when the Bidens knew it was Hunter – and so did the FBI. Hunter also blamed Russia when he was caught using adultery site Ashley Madison. Special counsel David Weiss’ prosecutor Leo Wise has been busy today. Multiple filings including new evidence about his allegedly illegal gun purchase while addicted to crack cocaine for which he is being prosecuted in Delaware after his sweetheart plea deal fell apart: More evidence presented by the DOJ: On October 13, 2018, and October 14, 2018 (the day after and two days after he purchased the firearm), Hunter said in a text message that he was meeting a drug dealer and sleeping in a car smoking crack. The DOJ presents its best evidence that Hunter Biden was a cocaine user when he bought the gun: “To be clear, investigators literally found drugs on the pouch where the defendant had kept his gun.” https://twitter.com/mirandadevine/status/1747422761729896749
@JonathanTurley: A new report indicates that the police found cocaine traces on the gun pouch recovered from Hunter Biden. https://t.co/xeuxWHPYwiThe disclosure undermines the type of sobriety defense raised by his counsel Abbe Lowell after the indictment… https://t.co/VVxk5J1UY7
GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: We now know the federal government flagged terms like “MAGA” and “TRUMP,” to financial institutions if Americans completed transactions using those terms. What was also flagged? If you bought a religious text, like a BIBLE, or shopped at Bass Pro Shop. https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1747718053365010737
Illinois citizens group files formal complaint with state Board of Elections There were over 300,000 votes from the 2020 election missing or deleted from the Illinois voter data prior to the conclusion of the federal retention period of 22 months. Over a four-year period, Illinois population decreased by 150,000, while the voter roll increased by 650,000. Over 2.5 million people had votes cast prior to their registration dates. More than 230,000 registrations show seemingly Illegal or illogical registration dates. There are more than 4 million apparent registration violations out of 8.9 million registrations… https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/01/illinois_citizens_group_files_formal_complaint_with_state_board_of_elections.html
@TheBabylonBee: Democrats Warn That Republicans Plan to Steal Election by Blocking Democrat Efforts to Steal Electionhttps://buff.ly/3qERcDe
CNN cancels New Hampshire debate after only Ron DeSantis plans to showhttps://t.co/pj1a81f20x (Trump won’t debate; and Haley has been abysmal at debates.)
@CarolineGlick: It can’t be said enough. Israel asked Michelle Obama over and over again to speak out against the rape of our women and girls at the hands of Hamas terrorists, about the plight of our hostages. And she never even responded.
@mrddmia: Because the Obamas hate Israel (and America). They’re subversive Marxists. Obama and his puppet Biden both funded Iran. Iran funds terrorism by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis. Biden even lifted sanctions on Houthis. Allowing Houthis to raise funds for attacks on U.S. warship.
“As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.” – Andrew Carnegie
@NikolovScience: Einstein’s theory of General Relativity explaining gravity as a spacetime curvature is being challenged not by mainstream scientists (who are afraid to challenge anything!), but by the UFO/UAP phenomenon: ET craft use antigravity propulsion suggesting gravity is an EM phenomenon! If a small craft can generate an antigravity field and manipulate it to achieve instantaneous supersonic acceleration without producing sonic boom, this implies that gravity is NOT a spacetime curvature depending on mass, but a real physical force akin to electromagnetism.
Peter and Ginger Breggin Exposing the Global Predators
harveyorganblog.com 
