JAN 23//GOLD CLOSED UP $3.95 TO $2024.95//SILVER CLOSED UP 21 CENTS TO $22.35//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $5.90 TO $902.20 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $10.90 TO $949.60//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT BY PETER SCHIFF// CHINA TO UNLEASH MASSIVE STIMULUS TRYING TO OFFSET DEVASTATING CONTRACTION DUE TO REAL ESTATE IMPLOSION//DAVOS ADMITS THAT UKRAINE HAS LOST ITS WAR WITH RUSSIA//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL SUFFERS A HUGE LOSS OF SOLDIERS (24) AFTER A GRENADE EXPLODES INSIDE TWO BUILDINGS//ISRAEL FINDS VAST AMOUNTS OF WEAPONS INSIDE KHAN YOUNIS/IRAN MOBILIZES OPERATIONS AGAINST THE USA INSIDE IRAQ AS BIDEN, THE WEAK SLEEPS/ USA NEWS: POOR RICHMOND MFG INDEX AND POOR RESULTS FROM BELLWETHER 3M//SWAMP NEWS FOR YOU TONIGHT//
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2 661 C JP MORGAN 6 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 1 880 H CITIGROUP 1
TOTAL: 9 9
JPMorgan stopped 1/9 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 9 NOTICES FOR 900 OZ or 0.02799 TONNES
total notices so far: 5984 contracts for 598,400 oz (18.6127 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 15 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 75,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 882 for 4,410,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $3.95
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : /HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.21 CENTS AT THE SLV//
MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
IF ANYBODY BELIEVES THIS, I GOT A WONDERFUL PROPERTY FOR SALE IN THE SAHARA DESERT.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 448.694 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3,242 CONTRACTS TO 138,868 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0.45 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATATION AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A GOOD 826 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 826CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.45), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A ULTRA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4952 CONTRACT GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1710 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.660 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.660 MILLION OZ
//HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 826 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED XXXCONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 11,872 contracts: OR 59.360 MILLION OZ (791 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 59.360 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24: 59.360 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3242CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1710 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.600 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 6.600 MILLION OZ/
NEW STANDING 6.600 million OZ /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5163OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 826CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS BUT AT SLIGHTLY LOWER PRICES.. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (826) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 75,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1209 CONTRACTS TO 467,069 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – removed 208 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1417 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $6.00 LOSSIN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 18.6905 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.00 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 16,793 OI CONTRACTS (52.23)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 15,584CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,069
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,793 CONTRACTS WITH 1,209 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,584EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17001 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1432CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (15,584CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1417) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,793 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 18.6905 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO SHORT COVERINGS.// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1432CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 68,408 CONTRACTS OR 6,840,800OZ OR 212.78 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4560 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 212.78 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 212.78/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.99% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 212.78 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3,242CONTRACTS OI TO 138,868 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1710 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 1710 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1710 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3242 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1710 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4952CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 24,760 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.53% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 392.80 PTS OR 2.63% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 29.38 OR 0.08% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1710 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1728 /Oil UP TO 74.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.31/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1209 CONTRACTS TO 467,069 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS AT THE LOWER PRICES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GIGANTIC SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 15,584 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 15,584 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 15,584CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 16,793 CONTRACTS IN THAT 15,584 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1209 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.00 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1,432 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (18.6905 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 18.6905 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $6.00 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF16,793 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 52.793 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.02799 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 18.6905 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.00
WE HAD – REMOVED 208 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,793 CONTRACTS OR 1,679,300 OZ OR 52.23 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5984 notices 598400 oz 18.6127 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i)out of Brinks: 42,985.880 (1337 kilobars)
total withdrawals 42,985.880 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
Adjustments; 0 dealer to customer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 34 contracts having LOST 33 contracts. We had 42 notices served on MONDAY, so we gained 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will stand for delivery at the comex .
FEB LOST 16,014 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 166,393
March GAINED 46 contracts to stand at 821.
APRIL GAINED 16,800 CONTRACTS RISING TO 233,729.
We had 9 contracts filed for today representing 900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 6 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 9 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5984 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (34 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 9 x 100 oz per contract equals 600,900 OZ OR 18.6905 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN.contract month: No of notices filed so far (5984) x 100 oz + (34) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (9) x 100 oz) which equals 600,900oz standing OR 18.6905 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 18.6905 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,918,297.505 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,197,863.933 (286.092 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,720,433,572 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,753,5628 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 241.16 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 23/INITIAL
//2024// THE JAN 2023 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
595,885.088 oz
ASAHI Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
988.310 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
15 CONTRACT(S) (75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
238 contracts (1,190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
882 Contracts (4,410,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware: 988.310 oz
total customer deposits 988.310 oz oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.341 million oz/277.720 million or 47.29%
adjustment: 2//dealer to customer
i) CNT 286,296.800 oz
ii) Manfra: 191,116.618 oz
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of ASAHI 590,888.100 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 4995.988 oz
total withdrawal: 595,885.088 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 41.940 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 277.720 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 253 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 72 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 87 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 15 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 75,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX
FEB LOST 93 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 775
MARCH GAINED 2,085 CONTRACTS TO 105,961
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 15 for 75,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 75,394//good/raid
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 43,632 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 882 x 5,000 oz = 4,410,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (253) and the number of notices served upon today 15 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN/2024 contract month: 882 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (253) – number of notices served upon today (15 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 5.600 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.660 million oz/
New total standing: 6.600 million oz.
There are 41.940 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 858.93 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 448.694 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: The Dark Ages For US Housing And Manufacturing
The president touted a manufacturing renaissance. However, economic indices show US manufacturing entering a Dark Age. Home sales are not looking bright, either.
Manufacturing is a complete disaster. In fact, we got the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index later in the week. This was supposed to be -6.7. It came out at -1.6. And the prior month (which was originally reported as -10.5) was revised to -12.8.”
Peter is referring to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which tracks changes in business activities like how many people are hired, the rate of new orders, and the prices businesses are paying and receiving for goods.
A negative reading indicates contraction.
January’s readings were dark:
This is the fifth consecutive month where this index has been negative but it’s been negative for 18 out of the past 20 months. This is a massive manufacturing recession.”
And it’s not just the Philly data that shows this.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -43.7 in January 2024.
This is like the worst number since the COVID lockdowns. I think back to back we have the biggest two-month decline in the history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index.”
The housing market is also looking gloomy.
Despite lower mortgage rates, existing home sales are declining:
Existing home sales actually fell in the month of December, which would surprise people because mortgage rates backed off quite a bit as a result of the decline in treasury yields. Yet despite that relief on the mortgage front, existing home sales, (which is most of the sales)… went down. In fact, month over month it was down 1%.”
Homes aren’t selling because people (and banks) can’t afford the high-interest rate mortgages, even though they have come down:
The people who want to buy them can’t afford to buy them because they can’t get those rock-bottom mortgage rates. Even though mortgage rates have come down, they’re still not low enough for them to afford the prices that the existing homeowners want.”
At the same time, existing homes aren’t selling. The people who are in them have low mortgages and aren’t motivated to sell. As economic conditions worsen, people will have to seek other means to get by on their mortgage.
They’ll rent out their homes so they can hang on to the mortgage. This is more of a sign of just how bad the economy is. And it’s going to get a lot worse.”
END
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
JOHN RUBINO
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
China rigs currency market just as U.S. does
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-01-22 11:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
China Moves to Support Yuan as Stock Markets Tumble
From Reuters Monday, January 22, 2024
China’s major state-owned banks moved to support the yuan today, tightening liquidity in the offshore foreign exchange market while actively selling U.S. dollars onshore as equities slid, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.
The goal was to prevent the yuan from falling too fast as China’s A shares plunged, said one of the people, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index posting its biggest one-day drop since April 2022 on Monday, down 2.7%.
“It is a clear policy signal to stabilise the yuan and counter the negative market sentiment on equities,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. …
Pam and Russ Martens: A Fed whistleblower reveals efforts to silence him
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-01-22 10:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Pam and Russ Martens Wall Street on Parade Monday, January 22, 2024
The U.S. Department of Justice needs to immediately appoint an independent special counsel to investigate how long and in how many ways the U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve) has been functioning as a protection racket for Wall Street mega-banks.
We’ll get to the latest revelation about the Fed bullying and intimidating a Fed official in a moment, but first some necessary background. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1718
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1728
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.53%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 392.80 PTS OR 2.63%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 29.38 PTS OR 0.08%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.25 EURO FALLS TO 1.0864 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.669 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.02/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3085***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.867** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.230…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.341
3j Gold at $2024.90 silver at: 22.29 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 56 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.37//
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148,02// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.669% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8694 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9444 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.137 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.354 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.406 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.28…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 3.9760
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Flat After Back-To-Back Records After China Unveils Massive Market Bailout
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 08:20 AM
S&P futures are flat after back-to-back record closing highs for the S&P 500 index, with Europe mixed and Asia higher after a Bloomberg report indicated that China was “mulling” a 2 trillion yuan market rescue package to contain the relentless rout hammering Chinese stocks. As of 8:05am, S&P futures were up 0.1% despite a barrage of disappointing earnings releases from the likes of DR Horton, General Electric, and 3M. Nasdaq futures, as usual, gained more and were last trading up 0.3%. The Bloomberg dollar index was flat, erasing an earlier loss while the yen reversed an earlier gain following hawkish comments from BOJ head Ueda. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5%, with Brent trading just under $80/barrel.
In premarket trading,United Airlines jumped trading on the back of forecast-beating earnings. General Electric dropped after predicting profit that undershot estimates. 3M also also slumped 7% after the manufacturing giant forecast 2024 profits and sales growth below Wall Street expectations. US-listed Chinese shares also gained in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported Beijing is considering a package of measures to stabilize the falling stock market (Alibaba (BABA) +2.4%, Nio (NIO) +3.7%, Li Auto (LI) +4.2%). The Hang Seng Index jumped 2.6%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Coinbase falls 4.5% after JPMorgan issued a downgrade, saying enthusiasm surrounding cryptocurrency ETFs has the potential to deflate further.
D.R. Horton drops 4.9% after the homebuilder posted first-quarter earnings per share that missed analyst estimates.
Enphase Energy (ENPH) and Sunnova Energy (NOVA) are up at least 4% as Truist raised its recommendation on both to buy, saying the pair will be among the biggest beneficiaries of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
General Electric drops 3.7% after the company predicts profit this quarter will fall short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Rumble (RUM) climbs 6.1%, set to extend gains after jumping 36% on Monday following the announcement of a partnership with Barstool Sports for advertising and cloud services.
Sirius XM declines 1.5% after the satellite radio company received a downgrade from Wells Fargo, which said the merger with Liberty SiriusXM “clouds the valuation.”
United Airlines jumps 6.4% after providing a 2024 profit outlook range with a midpoint that’s higher than analysts expected.
Verizon Communications climbs 4.4% after the company gained retail mobile-phone customers in the fourth quarter.
Zuora (ZUO) rises 2.9% after the cloud billing technology company received an upgrade to buy at Goldman Sachs on its improving risk-reward.
More earnings reports are due later in the day, with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble Co. scheduled to report. Stock markets have broadly shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s warnings that interest-rate cuts are some way off. Instead they have cheered the economy’s resilience even after the most aggressive policy-tightening cycle in decades.
“There’s been no sign so far of a US recession, that’s why the fourth-quarter earnings season is so important,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “Investors will want to see what companies’ guidance is for 2024 on consumer demand and profit margins.”
Besides earnings and economic data, central banks are also in focus this week. While the Bank of Japan held rates steady, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the certainty of achieving its projections has continued to gradually increase. That language supports the prevailing view among economists that the BOJ will raise rates at some point in the first part of this year. Swaps see a 45% probability of a rate hike by the April meeting, with the likelihood rising to 100% by the July gathering. His comments send the USDJPY down to a low of 146.99 before the entire move was promptly reversed as nobody believes anything the BOJ claims.
Investor attention now shifts to the European Central Bank’s Thursday meeting and whether officials may indicate a start to policy easing.
European stocks failed to capitalize on a positive handover from Asia, where shares rose on reports of a fresh market rescue package from Beijing. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, as a rally for miners failed to offset weakness in sectors including health care and tech, with investors awaiting clues on interest rates from the European Central Bank. Ericsson AB fell after the Swedish company warned that its market outside of China will continue to decline in 2024. Swatch Group AG also slipped after failing to hit the sales record predicted by management. Here are the most notable European movers:
Shares in HelloFresh jump as much as 8.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, saying the risk-reward profile “is now skewed to the upside.”
Shares in Nordex rise as much as 5.8% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on the wind turbine producer to buy from neutral, saying its underperformance compared with peers including Vestas and Siemens is unjustified.
Shares in Crest Nicholson rise as much as 2.3% after reporting 2023 results. Drops in revenue and profit were as expected following the housebuilder’s trading update last week, analysts said, turning their focus to news that Martyn Clark is joining as CEO.
Shares in Encavis slump as much as 5.7% after the renewable power company was downgraded to sell from hold by Stifel, which warned an “unfavourable alignment” of factors this year means there is no justification for its premium valuation.
Shares in Ericsson fall as much as 4.2% after the telecom equipment maker warned that market uncertainties would prevail in 2024, with clients outside of China still cautious on spending. Taking usual seasonality into account, that means implied 1Q profit indications are much lower than what consensus estimates have factored in, according to analysts.
Shares in Swatch drop as much as 3.5% after the Swiss watch company’s full-year 2023 results fell short of expectations. Analysts flagged a rise in investments and a strong currency as denting earnings, while the lower-than-anticipated dividend increase also weighed.
Shares in Logitech drop as much as 7.8% after the Swiss maker of computer accessories reported results. A boost to guidance is positive, but was widely expected, while the shares had a strong run ahead of the results, up about 34% in the three months through Monday’s close.
Shares in Topdanmark slump as much as 6.5% after reporting a drop in annual profit. Analysts flag the cost of claims was much higher than expected and that markets have set a high bar for the insurer in 2024.
Shares in Compass Group slip as much as 2.5% after HSBC downgraded the caterer to hold, saying there is better value elsewhere.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by Hong Kong, on news that Chinese authorities are considering a rescue package to stem an extended market slump. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, with all sub-sectors gaining except utilities. A gauge of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong jumped 2%, while the onshore CSI 300 Index briefly erased losses after Bloomberg reported that policymakers are seeking to mobilize $278 billion as part of a stabilization fund to buy onshore shares. That came after Premier Li Qiang called for “forceful” steps to support the market.
“The selloff has reached irrational levels due to a crisis of confidence,” said Vey-Sern Ling, an analyst at Union Bancaire Privee. “A rescue package may be insufficient on its own to prop up the market in terms of value injected, but will certainly help dispel the idea that the government doesn’t care.”
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong boosted by reports that China was mulling an equity market rescue package which could be announced as soon as this week, while tech names were also helped after China’s gaming regulator took down draft rules for controlling spending on video games from its website. Conversely, the mainland lagged as the initial support from the news of a potential equity market rescue waned given that potential support measures remain speculation and more stimulus will likely be needed to revive the property sector.
Australia’s ASX 200 was led higher by financials, tech and defensives, while stocks also shrugged off mixed business surveys.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended on gains after the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy, as widely expected, which briefly lifted the index to just shy of the 37,000 level where it then hit resistance and eventually wiped out all its earlier spoils.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is off its best levels, having rallied during the course of the BOJ press conference where Governor Ueda made a few hawkish hints. USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 148 after weakening to as low as 146.99. Pair earlier rose as much as 0.3% when the BOJ kept its short-term rate at minus 0.1% and retained its current yield-curve control parameters Fast-money funds sold spot before and during Ueda’s press conference as JGB futures fell on the prospect of possible tighter policy, according to Asia-based FX traders
“The change in tone from Ueda is apparent, and keeps the April meeting live,” said Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy for Saxo Capital Markets, Still, the “yen will likely struggle to hold on to these gains in the near-term given that US yields are likely to remain volatile as the markets start to price in a Trump presidency and US economic data remains robust”
In rates, treasuries fall, with US 10-year yields rising 2bps to 4.13%. Bunds and gilts also decline. Treasuries remained cheaper by 1bp to 3bp across the curve following losses during Asia session, when futures were pressured as JGBs fell; the catalyst was BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments that certainty in the outlook is rising gradually and he’ll consider ending negative rates if the bank’s inflation goal comes into view. The US 10-year yield trades near session highs at around 4.13% with gilts lagging by 2bp in the sector and bunds slightly outperforming; Treasury curves are slightly steeper, most spreads within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels. UK gilts underperform in European bond markets. US session includes a $60BN 2-year note auction, first of three coupon sales this week (the remainder are a $61b 5-year and $41b 7-year Wednesday and Thursday). The When Issued on the 2-year yield at around 4.37% is ~6bp cheaper than result of December’s, which stopped through by 0.7bp.
In commodities, oil prices are in the red; WTI falls 0.6% to trade near $74.30. Spot gold rises 0.3%. Bitcoin falls 1.8% to ~$39,000.
To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for January, whilst in the Euro Area, we’ll get the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January. Otherwise, earnings releases include Netflix, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,881.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 471.51
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
Euro little changed at $1.0891
MXAP up 0.4% to 164.72
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 498.27
Nikkei little changed at 36,517.57
Topix down 0.1% to 2,542.07
Hang Seng Index up 2.6% to 15,353.98
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,770.98
Sensex down 1.7% to 70,239.02
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,514.94
Kospi up 0.6% to 2,478.61
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $79.68/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,029.92
US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 103.22
Top Overnight News
BOJ left policy unchanged, as expected, but signaled a growing confidence that inflation conditions were continuing to move in a direction supportive of ending negative rates. RTRS
China’s government is looking to mobilize ~$275B worth of funds to bolster its stock market as officials grow more anxious about slumping prices. Also, Chinese Premier Li came out Monday and called for the gov’t to take additional steps to bolster the country’s beleaguered stock market. BBG
China’s gaming regulator has removed from its website the controversial draft rules that crushed the sector several weeks ago, an action that caused industry stocks to spike. Nikkei
ECB published its latest bank lending survey and revealed a further tightening of lending standards while demand for loans continued to fall (albeit at a slightly reduced rate). ECB
The Israeli military suffered its deadliest day of the Gaza ground invasion on Monday, with 24 soldiers killed in the territory, 21 of them in a single blast. The military announced the soldiers’ deaths early Tuesday. Most of the soldiers were inside two two-story buildings that collapsed Monday afternoon, in a blast apparently involving explosives placed by Israel’s own military to level the buildings. NYT
The United States and Britain carried out large-scale military strikes on Monday against eight sites in Yemen controlled by Houthi militants, according to the two countries. The strikes signaled that the Biden administration intends to wage a sustained and, at least for now, open-ended campaign against the Iran-backed group that has disrupted traffic in vital international sea lanes. NYT
A top US regulator has pushed back at banks’ claims that stricter capital rules will increase borrowing costs, saying the lenders could always cut dividends and buybacks instead. The comments from Michael Hsu, acting director of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, are the latest shot across the bow to banks, which have complained for months about regulators’ plans for stricter rules under the so-called Basel III endgame framework. FT
Bill Gross has some advice for the Federal Reserve: stop winding down its balance sheet now, and start cutting interest rates in coming months to avoid recession. BBG
Sanofi agreed to buy the US biotech Inhibrx Inc. for as much as $2.2 billion, giving the French drugmaker a potential therapy for a genetic disorder that affects the lungs and liver.
The acquisition is the latest in a string of small- and mid-sized deals as Sanofi looks to double down on innovative medicines and reduce its reliance on the blockbuster asthma medicine Dupixent. BBG
Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to “amplify” ties with Moscow during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, as the two sides continue to deepen relations. The Chinese leader said the “robust resilience” of their cooperation was demonstrated by bilateral trade hitting its annual goal of $200 billion last month, according to the state-run China Central Television. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly gained after the fresh record levels on Wall St but with gains capped ahead of risk events, while the region also digested the BoJ policy decision and reports of a potential Chinese equity market rescue package. ASX 200 was led higher by financials, tech and defensives, while stocks also shrugged off mixed business surveys. Nikkei 225 extended on gains after the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy, as widely expected, which briefly lifted the index to just shy of the 37,000 level where it then hit resistance and eventually wiped out all its earlier spoils. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong boosted by reports that China was mulling an equity market rescue package which could be announced as soon as this week, while tech names were also helped after China’s gaming regulator took down draft rules for controlling spending on video games from its website. Conversely, the mainland lagged as the initial support from the news of a potential equity market rescue waned given that potential support measures remain speculation and more stimulus will likely be needed to revive the property sector.
Top Asian News
China is to reportedly expand stock selling curbs to insurers, according to Bloomberg
China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln, according to Bloomberg sources.
BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged, as expected, with rates at -0.10% and QQE with YCC to flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at around 0%, while it maintained the 1% upper bound reference rate for market operations. BoJ made no change to its forward guidance as it reiterated that it will continue with QQE with YCC for as long as needed and won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if needed. BoJ also noted that inflation expectations are gradually heightening and inflation will likely gradually accelerate towards the BoJ target through to the end of the projected period. Furthermore, the BoJ cut the Fiscal 2023 Real GDP median forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% but raised the Fiscal 2024 Real GDP median view to 1.2% from 1.0%, while it cut its Fiscal 2024 Core CPI median forecast to 2.4% from 2.8% but raised the Fiscal 2025 Core CPI median view to 1.8% from 1.7% in the latest Outlook Report.
BoJ Governor Ueda says that Japan’s economy is to gradually pick up in the coming months; says the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation is rising gradually; must carefully watch financial and FX moves alongside the impact on the economy and prices. Full press conference can be found here.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says monetary policy falls under the BoJ’s jurisdiction, no comment on the government’s view of the BoJ decision.
PBoC leaders will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 07:00GMT/02:00EST to introduce the implementation of the CEWC decisions and financial support for the real economy, according to reports
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%), started the session on a firmer footing, though dipped at the open and continued to edge into negative territory throughout the European morning; APAC bourses were mostly firmer at the handover, focus on BoJ & Chinese stimulus reports. European sectors are similarly pressured overall; though, Basic Resources tops the pile helped by higher base metals prices following Chinese stimulus optimism. US equity futures are on a mixed footing, with futures (bar the RTY) oscillating on either side of the unchanged mark with US specific newsflow light into key earnings and New Hampshire tonight; the Russell (+0.7%) continues yesterday’s outperformance.
Top European News
UK train drivers called off extra walkouts as the threat of an anti-strike law was dropped, according to FT.
ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit standards tightened in Q4 for firms and households; further tightening expected in Q1. Demand for loans by firms and households continued to decrease substantially, albeit less steeply than in the previous quarter. Banks expect a small net increase in demand for loans to firms and for housing loans in the first quarter of 2024. Bank lending conditions tightened more in real estate and construction than in other sectors. Across loan categories, the decline in demand was driven by the general level of interest rates. Moreover, lower fixed investment dampened firms’ demand for loans, while subdued consumer confidence and housing market prospects reduced demand from households for loans.
FX
A softer morning for the broader Dollar largely as a function of JPY price action following the BoJ press conference; DXY trades towards the bottom of a 102.98-103.39 range after eclipsing yesterday’s high (103.37).
JPY is the marked G10 outperformer as BoJ Governor Ueda delivered a hawkish-leaning press conference after the central bank maintained policy settings across the board whilst the latest Outlook Report also provided very little to catch markets off guard.
EUR benefits slightly from the softer Dollar but gains capped by the firmer JPY; EUR/USD trades around the middle of a 1.0877-1.0915 range.
Antipodeans hold an upward bias following overnight gains in the Yuan coupled with upside in commodities as sentiment in APAC hours was lifted by reports China is said to consider an equity market rescue package.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1117 vs exp. 7.2033 (prev. 7.1105).
Fixed Income
USTs are bear-steepening, though only modestly so, after BoJ’s Ueda press conference and with the Fed in Blackout; docket has a US 2yr outing (USD 60bln due) and Philadelphia/Richmond Fed surveys.
JGBs were choppy on the initial BoJ announcement, where settings/guidance was maintained. Thereafter, there was some marked bearish action during Ueda’s press conference which was hawkish overall.
Bunds are pressured in tandem with JGBs, German Green supply passed without note. Unreactive to the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey, where credit standards tightened in Q4 and are expected to continue to do so in Q1.
Netherlands sells EUR 1.72bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 0.00% 2038 DSL: average yield 2.759% (prev. 2.992%)
Orders for the UK 2054 Gilt exceed GBP 70bln (prev. GBP 60bln); price guidance set at 1.75bps over 2053 Gilt (prev. 1.75-2.25bps), via Reuters citing bookrunner.
Commodities
WTI and Brent hold a mild downward bias after crude contracts settled higher by USD 1.50/bbl apiece yesterday, with today’s price action somewhat muted; Brent holds below the USD 80/bbl level.
Precious metals see a modest upward tilt amid the softer Dollar, but price action is capped ahead of this week’s key risk events including US Q4 GDP, Dec PCE & ECB. XAU sits within recent ranges in a USD 2,019.38-2,037.79/oz band.
Base metals are firmer across the board as a function of the weak Greenback coupled with overnight headlines that China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln – in turn lifting sentiment in China.
German Economy Minister Habeck says we have started a trend reversal in offshore wind and demand is high
Norway’s prelim December oil production 1.847mln BPD (prev. 1.779mln BPD in Nov); December gas production 11.75bcm (prev. 10.90bcm in Nov)
Dubai set the official crude differential for April at parity to DME Oman
Geopolitics
Israel proposed a two-month fighting pause in Gaza for the release of all hostages, according to Axios.
US and British forces conducted a fresh round of strikes in Yemen against Houthi targets, while the US, UK, Bahrain and other nations confirmed in a joint statement that an additional round of proportionate and necessary strikes was conducted against 8 Houthi targets in Yemen, according to Reuters.
White House said President Biden and UK PM Sunak discussed in a call the ongoing Iranian-backed Houthi attacks against merchant and naval vessels in the Red Sea and discussed securing the release of hostages held by Hamas.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, prior 6.3
10:00: Jan. Richmond Fed Business Conditions, prior 0
10:00: Jan. Richmond Fed Index, est. -6, prior -11
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As those of us in Europe brace ourselves for a second storm in three days today, markets are sailing in calm waters at the moment, and put in another decent performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.22%) hitting an all-time high for a second consecutive session and Europe catching up a bit of the recent underperformance. Bonds also rallied and in addition EUR IG spreads reached their tightest level in 21 months, just as Brent crude oil prices closed at a new YTD high, at $80.06/bbl.
The chink in the armour at the moment is rate expectations as the last 10-day trend of Q1 rate cut expectations being priced out continued. Indeed, futures are now pricing in just a 42% chance of a Fed rate cut by March (49% Friday), which is a big shift from the end of 2023, when a cut by March was fully priced in. Even intraday on January 12th there was an 88% probability.
Central banks have been in the spotlight overnight too, as the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-dovish policy unchanged as widely expected. They revised down their core inflation forecast for the next fiscal year (staring this April) to 2.4% from 2.8% in October but marginally increased the core CPI estimate to 1.8% from 1.7%. Following the decision, yields on 10-year JGBs (-0.7bps) inched lower, trading at 0.65% with the Japanese yen strengthening +0.12% to trade at 147.93 against the dollar. The Nikkei has dipped (-0.1%) from earlier highs as the meeting was seen as a slightly hawkish one.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Hang Seng is rebounding (+2.8%) after a Bloomberg report revealed that Chinese authorities are considering mobilizing a package of measures worth 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) to stabilise its stock markets. For context even with the rally so far this morning the index is still -9.8% YTD after just three weeks of trading. Mainland Chinese stocks have swung about a bit but are broadly flat as I type. US futures are also little changed at the moment.
That follows on from the S&P 500 (+0.22%) last night posting a third consecutive gain for the first time in 2024. Industrials (+0.74%) and financials (+0.43%) led the gains. Moreover, small-cap stocks did very well, and the Russell 2000 surged by +2.01%, whereas the Magnificent 7 posted a slight loss (-0.22%). However, the Russell 2000 is still down -2.16% YTD, in contrast to a +3.44% gain for the Magnificent 7. Yesterday’s rally was evident in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 (+0.77%) had its best start to the week since August, with the STOXX Technology Index posting a +2.08% gain.
That optimism extended to bonds, where yields on 10yr Treasuries came down by -1.8bps to 4.11%. The muted moves came in the absence of any obvious catalysts, and we won’t hear from Fed officials now until after next week’s decision. Overnight they are another -1.5bps lower. Even as investors dialled back the chance of a Fed March cut, it was clear that they still expect a fairly rapid pace over the year as a whole, with 133bps of cuts still priced in by the December meeting. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.1bps), OATs (-4.7bps) and BTPs (-4.1bps) all moved lower as well.
In the commodity space, Brent (+1.91% to $80.06/bbl) and WTI (+2.42% to $75.19/bbl) crude oil prices both rose to YTD highs, supported by solid risk sentiment as well as supply concerns. The latter included ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and an outage at a gas-condensate export terminal on Russia’s Baltic coast after a Ukrainian drone strike over the weekend.
Looking forward to today, the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for Q4 2023 will give the latest colour on banking conditions in the euro area. In the last round of the survey banks expected a sizeable improvement during Q4, but their expectations had proved too optimistic over the previous few quarters. Still, with nascent signs that bank lending flows have bottomed out, we’ll be watching if the BLS signals that the peak drag from the ECB’s tightening is now behind us.
Later on in the day, attention will be back on US politics, since the New Hampshire primary is taking place, which is the second contest on the Republican side after last week’s Iowa Caucus. Right now, the polling average on FiveThirtyEight puts former President Trump in the lead with 52.3%, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on 36.7%. And those are the only two major candidates still in the race, since Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out on Sunday and endorsed Trump. Bear in mind as well that in the era of modern primaries, no Republican has ever lost the nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, so if Trump is able to win again today, it would take a historically unprecedented collapse for him to lose the nomination from here. Results should become available after polls start closing at 7pm ET.
Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although we did get the Conference Board’s Leading Index for December. That posted a -0.1% decline (vs. -0.3% expected), but it was actually the smallest move lower since March 2022, which speaks to the growing signs that the outlook is improving.
To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for January, whilst in the Euro Area, we’ll get the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for January. Otherwise, earnings releases include Netflix, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities are weaker though RTY outperforms, Dollar softer & Yen bid post BoJ Ueda press conference – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 05:59 AM
European equities are weaker despite starting the session on a firmer footing; US equity futures oscillate the unchanged mark, though the RTY outperforms
Dollar is softer largely as a function of a firmer JPY after BoJ Ueda’s hawkish-leaning press conference
Bonds are softer, in tandem with JGB price action; US supply later today
Crude is softer, giving back the prior day’s advances; Base metals are entirely in the green, benefitting from Chinese stimulus hopes
Looking ahead, Canadian New Housing Price Index, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), US Richmond Fed Index, NZ CPI, Australian PMI, Japanese Trade Data, Supply from the US, Earnings from Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble & Netflix.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%), started the session on a firmer footing, though dipped at the open and continued to edge into negative territory throughout the European morning; APAC bourses were mostly firmer at the handover, focus on BoJ & Chinese stimulus reports.
European sectors are similarly pressured overall; though, Basic Resources tops the pile helped by higher base metals prices following Chinese stimulus optimism.
US equity futures are on a mixed footing, with futures (bar the RTY) oscillating on either side of the unchanged mark with US specific newsflow light into key earnings and New Hampshire tonight; the Russell (+0.7%) continues yesterday’s outperformance.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
A softer morning for the broader Dollar largely as a function of JPY price action following the BoJ press conference; DXY trades towards the bottom of a 102.98-103.39 range after eclipsing yesterday’s high (103.37).
JPY is the marked G10 outperformer as BoJ Governor Ueda delivered a hawkish-leaning press conference after the central bank maintained policy settings across the board whilst the latest Outlook Report also provided very little to catch markets off guard.
EUR benefits slightly from the softer Dollar but gains capped by the firmer JPY; EUR/USD trades around the middle of a 1.0877-1.0915 range.
Antipodeans hold an upward bias following overnight gains in the Yuan coupled with upside in commodities as sentiment in APAC hours was lifted by reports China is said to consider an equity market rescue package.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1117 vs exp. 7.2033 (prev. 7.1105).
USTs are bear-steepening, though only modestly so, after BoJ’s Ueda press conference and with the Fed in Blackout; docket has a US 2yr outing (USD 60bln due) and Philadelphia/Richmond Fed surveys.
JGBs were choppy on the initial BoJ announcement, where settings/guidance was maintained. Thereafter, there was some marked bearish action during Ueda’s press conference which was hawkish overall.
Bunds are pressured in tandem with JGBs, German Green supply passed without note. Unreactive to the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey, where credit standards tightened in Q4 and are expected to continue to do so in Q1.
Netherlands sells EUR 1.72bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 0.00% 2038 DSL: average yield 2.759% (prev. 2.992%)
Orders for the UK 2054 Gilt exceed GBP 70bln (prev. GBP 60bln); price guidance set at 1.75bps over 2053 Gilt (prev. 1.75-2.25bps), via Reuters citing bookrunner.
WTI and Brent hold a mild downward bias after crude contracts settled higher by USD 1.50/bbl apiece yesterday, with today’s price action somewhat muted; Brent holds below the USD 80/bbl level.
Precious metals see a modest upward tilt amid the softer Dollar, but price action is capped ahead of this week’s key risk events including US Q4 GDP, Dec PCE & ECB. XAU sits within recent ranges in a USD 2,019.38-2,037.79/oz band.
Base metals are firmer across the board as a function of the weak Greenback coupled with overnight headlines that China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln – in turn lifting sentiment in China.
German Economy Minister Habeck says we have started a trend reversal in offshore wind and demand is high
Norway’s prelim December oil production 1.847mln BPD (prev. 1.779mln BPD in Nov); December gas production 11.75bcm (prev. 10.90bcm in Nov)
Dubai set the official crude differential for April at parity to DME Oman
UK train drivers called off extra walkouts as the threat of an anti-strike law was dropped, according to FT.
ECB Bank Lending Survey: Credit standards tightened in Q4 for firms and households; further tightening expected in Q1. Demand for loans by firms and households continued to decrease substantially, albeit less steeply than in the previous quarter. Banks expect a small net increase in demand for loans to firms and for housing loans in the first quarter of 2024. Bank lending conditions tightened more in real estate and construction than in other sectors. Across loan categories, the decline in demand was driven by the general level of interest rates. Moreover, lower fixed investment dampened firms’ demand for loans, while subdued consumer confidence and housing market prospects reduced demand from households for loans.
DATA RECAP
UK PSNCR, GBP (Dec) 12.863B (Prev. 12.453B, Rev. 12.583B); UK PSNB, GBP (Dec) 6.846B (Prev. 13.409B, Rev. 12.781B)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.00 (exp. 1.70), Revenue 13.60bln (exp. 13.54bln). Passenger revenue USD 12.42bln (exp. 12.39bln). Cargo revenue USD 402mln (exp. 345.6mln). Other revenue USD 803mln (exp. 805.9mln). Revenue passenger miles 60.67bln (exp. 61.04bln). Available seat miles 73.73bln (exp. 73.48bln). Load factor 82.3% (exp. 83.2%). Sees Q1 adj. diluted loss/shr 0.35-0.85 (exp. loss 0.22). Sees FY adj. EPS USD 9.00-11.00 (exp. 9.45). Sees Boeing (BA) 737 MAX 9 grounding impact about 3ppts of incremental CASM-ex in Q1 based on fleet grounded January 6th-31st. (United Airlines) Shares +6.1% after-hours.
Bank of America (BAC) has cut around 20 investment banker jobs in Asia, according to Reuters sources impacts HK bankers.
Amazon (AMZN) Union group at a Staten Island Amazon warehouse is broken amid internal clashes with leadership, according to the WSJ.
GEOPOLITICS
Israel proposed a two-month fighting pause in Gaza for the release of all hostages, according to Axios.
US and British forces conducted a fresh round of strikes in Yemen against Houthi targets, while the US, UK, Bahrain and other nations confirmed in a joint statement that an additional round of proportionate and necessary strikes was conducted against 8 Houthi targets in Yemen, according to Reuters.
White House said President Biden and UK PM Sunak discussed in a call the ongoing Iranian-backed Houthi attacks against merchant and naval vessels in the Red Sea and discussed securing the release of hostages held by Hamas.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin falls back below the USD 40k level printing a trough at USD 38.8k, with Ethereum also weaker and back under USD 2.25k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks mostly gained after the fresh record levels on Wall St but with gains capped ahead of risk events, while the region also digested the BoJ policy decision and reports of a potential Chinese equity market rescue package.
ASX 200 was led higher by financials, tech and defensives, while stocks also shrugged off mixed business surveys.
Nikkei 225 extended on gains after the BoJ maintained its ultra-easy policy, as widely expected, which briefly lifted the index to just shy of the 37,000 level where it then hit resistance and eventually wiped out all its earlier spoils.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied with Hong Kong boosted by reports that China was mulling an equity market rescue package which could be announced as soon as this week, while tech names were also helped after China’s gaming regulator took down draft rules for controlling spending on video games from its website. Conversely, the mainland lagged as the initial support from the news of a potential equity market rescue waned given that potential support measures remain speculation and more stimulus will likely be needed to revive the property sector.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China is to reportedly expand stock selling curbs to insurers, according to Bloomberg
China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln, according to Bloomberg sources.
BoJ kept its policy settings unchanged, as expected, with rates at -0.10% and QQE with YCC to flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at around 0%, while it maintained the 1% upper bound reference rate for market operations. BoJ made no change to its forward guidance as it reiterated that it will continue with QQE with YCC for as long as needed and won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if needed. BoJ also noted that inflation expectations are gradually heightening and inflation will likely gradually accelerate towards the BoJ target through to the end of the projected period. Furthermore, the BoJ cut the Fiscal 2023 Real GDP median forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% but raised the Fiscal 2024 Real GDP median view to 1.2% from 1.0%, while it cut its Fiscal 2024 Core CPI median forecast to 2.4% from 2.8% but raised the Fiscal 2025 Core CPI median view to 1.8% from 1.7% in the latest Outlook Report.
BoJ Governor Ueda says that Japan’s economy is to gradually pick up in the coming months; says the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation is rising gradually; must carefully watch financial and FX moves alongside the impact on the economy and prices. Full press conference can be found here.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says monetary policy falls under the BoJ’s jurisdiction, no comment on the government’s view of the BoJ decision.
PBoC leaders will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 07:00GMT/02:00EST to introduce the implementation of the CEWC decisions and financial support for the real economy, according to reports
DATA RECAP
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Dec) -1 (Prev. -9); NAB Business Conditions (Dec) 7 (Prev. 9)
New Zealand Services Index (Dec) 48.8 (Prev. 51.2, Rev. 51.1)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.53% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 392.80 PTS OR 2.63% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 29.38 OR 0.08% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.52% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1710 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1728 /Oil UP TO 74.11 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.31/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
China set to unleash trillions of dollars in a rescue package trying to fix their ailing real estate collapse
It will not work.
(zerohedge0
As China Stocks Crash, Beijing Proposes Multi-Trillion Market Rescue Package
MONDAY, JAN 22, 2024 – 10:09 PM
Earlier today, we lamented the latest implosion in Chinese markets, which we discussed in “China Stocks Crash Through ‘Snowball Derivatives’ Trigger Levels Overnight“, in which we pointed out the unprecedented failure of the centrally-planned market to halt its collapse be it through short selling bans, or even the latest impotent intervention by the “National Team”, China’s Plunge Protection Team, which today failed to spark even a modest rebound in the relentless selling which had triggered key liquidation levels.
We then summarized just how badly Beijing had boxed itself, noting that “after short selling ban did nothing, China PPT stepped in… and couldn’t do jack. Beijing trapped.” We concluded that “either they watch liquidation cascade as snowball derivatives are knocked in sparking rout and leading to social unrest, or they stop talking and finally do something.”
Well, just a few hours later we were proven correct again, because shortly after China reopened on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that according to “people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified” – i.e., government sources eager to do a market test, China is considering a package of measures to stabilize the plummeting stock market, after earlier attempts to restore investor confidence fell short and prompted Premier Li Qiang to call for “forceful” steps.
Specifically, Beijing is reportedly seeking to “mobilize” about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises, as part of a stabilization fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link; it has also earmarked at least 300 billion yuan of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment Ltd.
In other words, what was already a nationalized stock market is about to get even more nationalized, and instead of ad hoc interventions by the Plunge Protection Team, such market purchases by official state authorities will now become institutionalized.
Or maybe not: after all, China isn’t actually doing anythjing. Yes, it is mulling stuff, just like it has been mulling a 1 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus and a 1 trillion yuan “special “bond stimulus. but nothing has actually happened yet, because Beijing is absolutely terrified of the market reaction if and when the country with the 300% debt/GDP starts layering on more trillions in debt. Alas, at this point that’s just a matter of time, because either Beijing keeps mulling stuff and does nothing as it watches it cities burn amid the recent surge in strikes and protests…
… or it goes back to what it has been doing for the past 25 years, and floods the economy with new debt to boost contain the property crash, stabilize the economy and normalize the soaring youth unemployment. And since it really has no choice, it will be the latter… the only question is how much pain will Beijing suffer first before it capitulates.
Anyway, going back to the official Bloomberg report, it notes that “officials are also weighing other options and may announce some of them as soon as this week if approved by the top leadership”, but again, “the plans are still subject to change.” And they will, because either stocks soar and don’t drop, thereby obviating the need for an actual rescue package, or they resume their plunge and China will be forced to do even more when it actually does something in the very near future.
In any case, the report of panicked deliberations underscores that just as we predicted earlier today, there is an “elevated level sense of urgency” among Chinese authorities to stem a selloff that sent the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low this week. Calming the nation’s retail investors – many of whom have also been bruised by the protracted property downturn – is also seen as key to maintaining social stability. And if there is anything Beijing fears more than anything in this world, it is 1 billion angry lower and middle-class Chinese heading toward Beijing, armed with torches and pitchforks.
Which brings us to the next question: as even Bloomberg admits, it is unclear if these measures will be enough to end the rout is far from certain. We can help Bloomberg: it won’t be anywhere near enough, and indeed, after a modest bounce in the Shanghai Composite which pushed it in the red on the Bloomberg report, the index has once again slumped in the red, just as we said it would.
We weren’t the only ones to unleash a gusher of cynicism in response to the news: others agreed as well that this is a disaster..
Daisy Li, fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK.
“The biggest question I have is how the SOEs will come up with 2 trillion yuan from their offshore accounts and why they will choose to invest onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link. We are in need of a white knight to boost some confidence, given how bad things have been.”
Aninda Mitra, a macro and investment strategist at BNY Mellon
“The stock market package is a welcome measure, and shows some responsiveness from the authorities. But at under 2% of its GDP, we fear this is still inadequate. This amount falls short of even the reduction in the market cap, from early December to now, of Chinese enterprises listed in the Hong Kong stock exchange. These measures also need to be twinned with longer-term reforms to boost confidence in broader corporate sector.”
Michelle Lam, economist at SocGen’s HK Branch.
“Larger stimulus aimed at turning around the economy is needed for a sustained rally. What I think is critical for us to see a turnaround in market confidence is a step-up in PBoC’s PSL to support project completion and urban village redevelopment and a decisive increase in fiscal deficit which partly support household income.”
Rajeev De Mello, macro portfolio manager at GAMA
“The boost to China’s markets from any rescue package will only lead to a short-term rebound as more fundamental changes are needed. Frequently, packages which target the stock market do have an effect but it can be very short-lived if not accompanied by more fundamental changes.Without more forceful economic and regulatory policy actions, it will not lead to the beginning of a bull market in China.”
Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC in Singapore
“I am doubtful that the rebound in Chinese equities on the back of this rescue package news is sustainable so long as the fundamental growth trajectory doesn’t change”
And now that the market has called Beijing’s bluff in less than an hour, the panic will be truly palpable and instead of just focusing on the market, China will now be bombarded on all sides by a relentless collapse: the property crisis, depressed consumer sentiment, tumbling foreign investment and diminished confidence among local businesses after years of volatile policymaking are exerting strong downward pressure on both the economy and financial markets.
Which means China now has two options: pretend that the failed policies it has been doing (or pretending to do) so far has been successful, which it likely will until there is just too much blood on the streets, or it will finally capitulate and unleash the biggest fiscal stimulus ever seen in China: we are talking multiple trillions here, and in dollars not yuan, consequences be damned, because we are nearing the point of peak panic where Beijing will do anything at all to buy social order and stability for just a few more months. And once all those tens of trillions in Chinese deposits start fleeing, that’s when the real meltup in non-fiat assets – read gold, silver, crypto, fine art, wines, etc – will truly start.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK/GAZA
UK has joined the uSA in expanding its spy drones flights over GAZA
(zerohedge)
UK Has Joined US In Expanding Its Spy Drone Flights Over Gaza
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Previously we featured analysis pointing out that the West risks falling into an ‘escalation trap’ in Gaza and the region. Certainly the Israeli army (IDF) finds itself in a quagmire to some extent in Gaza, given the extreme difficulty of grueling urban combat.
It’s already been long known that the US has sent MQ-9 Reaper drones to collect intelligence over Gaza, as part of assistance to the IDF and Mossad. These flights have reportedly increased as Washington has gotten more involved in an advisory capacity. But fresh investigative reporting from Declassified UK shows that Britain’s role has expanded as well.
“The UK military has flown 50 surveillance missions over Gaza since December, it can be revealed,” Declassified UK writes. “The flights have taken off from Britain’s controversial air base on Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, and averaged around one a day since the beginning of December.”
The report documents that the surveillance flights are near daily at this point, with the Shadow R1 being the main drone of choice. The aircraft is manufactured by US company Raytheon, and another £110m contract has recently been awarded.
Data collected by the independent UK media outlet shows that most flights last an average of six hours, amid increasingly busy skies over the Gaza Strip.
While Hamas has a variety and likely thousands of surface-to-surface rockets that it continues to use against Israel, the group appears to lack sophisticated anti-air missiles. Otherwise, it might be expected that US, UK, or Israeli drones might have been shot down by now.
Already it’s become obvious that the Western coalition has been drawn more deeply into the Red Sea and Yemen conflict. At this point, the members of Operation Prosperity Guardian have bombed Houthi positions in at least seven waves of airstrikes.
Israel is meanwhile conducting more drone strikes in south Lebanon as the tit-for-tat with Hezbollah escalates…
So far these have not deterred the Iran-linked Houthis, and the US is now mulling longer term more committed offensive action. The UK is expected to sign on, and all of this suggests the aforementioned ‘escalation trap’ is spiraling… and this might have been Hamas’ plan all along.
END
DAVOS/EU/UKRAINE
Finally they admit that Ukraine will be defeated by Russia. They are wrong that Putin will target the EU
(zerohedge)
Davos Admits Possibility Of Ukraine Defeat – Claims Putin Will Target EU Next
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 08:55 AM
In a move that would have been unthinkable a year ago, the WEF has formed a discussion panel at their annual Davos conference titled “What If Ukraine Loses?” The panel represents, at the very least, an admission by the globalists that Ukraine could be defeated by Russia despite the deluge of money, armaments and intel assets that Ukraine has been given access to by western governments.
Since 2022, the narrative has shifted from talk of complete victory over Russia including the retaking of the Donbas and even Crimea, to merely holding the current front and keeping a steady supply of ammo and recruits.
The realities on the ground cannot be denied. The long vaunted “counter-offensive” that was supposed to crush Russian forces was a complete failure. No significant ground was gained and no significant victories have been won. It was a considerable propaganda error to hype up the counter-offensive the way Ukraine did, because when it turned out to be a dud all their other claims quickly came under suspicion.
At the end of 2023, the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was older than 40 (compare this to the US where the average age is 27). Rumors out of Ukraine abound that most younger soldiers are dead and that collection teams (government enforcers) now prowl the streets of cities like Kiev. They search for and kidnap any fighting age men they find, only to send them to the front with little or no training.
These are the kinds of stories that go mostly ignored by the wider western media. When they are mentioned, it is usually in support of the Ukrainian government, chastising people who don’t want to fight and die in a globalist proxy war as “draft dodgers.” The level to which journalists have acted as a propaganda arm of NATO and Ukraine has been grotesque, but it does help to explain why so many Americans and Europeans were deluded about the war for so long. All they have heard about for the past two years is that Ukraine is on the verge of imminent victory.
It’s simply not true.
This is likely why the WEF is now forced to address the issue at Davos – The situation is becoming undeniable and the fact that the elites are allowing discussion about a Ukraine loss suggests that defeat might be closer than we know.
The panel itself is largely made up of Ukrainian representatives who are there to spin the facts, not have a frank discussion about the realities in the trenches. Journalist Niall Ferguson seems to be the only member with a modicum of honesty on the panel, as he admits the situation in Ukraine has degraded dramatically. He does, however, join with the Ukrainians in admonishing the American public’s growing opposition to monetary and military support.
The underlying message? If Ukraine loses, it will be your fault.
Why should Americans be relied upon to dump hundreds of billions of dollars into a losing war against an opponent that has nothing to do with them? The same question should be considered by Europeans, but their proximity is used as leverage against them. The primary argument from political warhawks like Lindsay Graham and puppets like Zelensky is that when Ukraine falls, Putin intends to invade Europe next.
It’s the old Vietnam era “domino effect” narrative, repeated ad nauseum. The problem is that warhawks along with Zelensky and his propagandists are caught in a Catch-22: They have been promoting the idea that Russia’s military is in shambles and that US and EU aid is bringing Ukraine to victory. At the same time, they want to frighten Europeans and Americans with the prospect that Russia is strong enough to invade the EU. They can’t have it both ways – Either Russia’s armies are crippled and ripe to be overrun, or, they are incredibly strong and capable of leaping into a series of invasions against Ukraine’s neighbors.
The notion that Vladimir Putin intends to blitz Eastern Europe and that Ukraine is the only thing stopping him has never been supported by any significant evidence. Putin has never made this threat and there is no hard intel that confirms this is his strategy. There was a multitude of reasons for Russia to invade Ukraine and take the Donbas region; there is no strategic reason for them to engage in conflict with any other nation.
Rather than going into the ugly facts about Ukraine’s chances, the Davos panel comes off more as a sales pitch for continued shipments of cash and weapons. A disturbing cost/benefit analysis is offered up to the audience – For the cost of a couple hundred billion dollars and the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens, here is what you get in return…
The speakers even refer to this dynamic as an “investment.” Some of the more revealing comments include…
1) Panel members demand that more needs to be done to give Ukraine the means to strike into the heart of Russia (meaning long range missiles), which would only open the door to total bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian population centers (which Putin has so far kept to a minimum, especially when you compare operations by the US in places like Iraq). Escalation could include nuclear strikes, which Putin has mentioned on multiple occasions.
2) The panel asserts that the “global community” needs to collectively approve the use of more aggressive strikes on Russia. The nature of these strikes is not really discussed but this could include anything from bombardment of Russian cities, manufacturing, energy and agriculture to terror attacks on civilian populations. One could say that all is fair in war, but this is not the point. The point is that escalation is assured and many civilians (most of them Ukrainian) will die should Ukraine be armed with high tech weaponry or use tactics that risk much higher collateral damage. This is not a scenario that the majority of Americans want to facilitate.
3) Possibly the most interesting and disturbing comment of the panel came from politician Yehor Cherniev, who noted that the problem with America is that the government is forced to “listen to the people,” which slows down decisions on Ukraine. In other words, a dictatorship in the US would serve Ukrainian interests better. Given that Ukraine is essentially a dictatorship right now, this sentiment is not surprising but still interesting to hear in a public forum.
The clinical manner in which the war is being handled and sold suggests a sociopathy beyond reckoning, but it also lets us know that the war is intended to last. So far, there has not been a single serious gesture from NATO leaders to engage in diplomatic negotiations or peace talks with the Kremlin. And (if it hasn’t happened already) eventually Ukraine will run out of soldiers to fight. Under the circumstances, a devastating loss is assured, to the point that it appears to be the only outcome that is allowed to happen.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/
Twenty One IDF soldiers are dead after a rocket grenade brought down two building with them inside
They carried land mines into the buildings
(Jerusalem Post)
Hamas causes buildings to collapse – 21 IDF soldiers dead, several injured
Hamas forces fired a rocket-propelled grenade on multiple adjacent structures.
The IDF announced the death of 21 reservists fighting in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.
Hamas forces fired a rocket-propelled grenade on multiple adjacent structures, along with landmines that the IDF forces had collected and brought into the buildings, which caused a total collapse that killed 19 soldiers and injured several others on Monday.
The incident occurred around 4:00 p.m. in al-Muasi in central Gaza.
In addition, a separate rocket-propelled grenade was fired on an IDF tank which killed two IDF soldiers and injured two others.
Details of the massive explosion are being investigated
It was unclear if the soldiers had violated procedures by bringing the landmines into the structures with them and also unclear how much the collapse of the building was caused by the RPG versus the secondary landmines explosions.
Palestinians at the site of an Israeli air strike in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on December 17, 2023. (credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)
Names of additional fallen soldiers are expected to be announced once the IDF has been able to fully verify their identities and contact their families.
Israeli officials’ comments
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “Yesterday, we experienced one of the most difficult days since the outbreak of the war. The IDF has launched an investigation into the disaster. We must learn the necessary lessons and do everything to preserve the lives of our soldiers. In the name of our heroes, for the sake of our lives, we will not stop fighting until absolute victory.”
President Isaac Herzog wrote that “behind every name whose world has fallen apart – a family that we take to our hearts with sorrow and pain, and at the same time with pride – for the heroism of the generation.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated, “On this difficult and painful morning, the most tragic news reached many homes in Israel; our hearts are with the dear families in their most difficult time. This is a war that will determine the future of Israel for decades to come – the fall of the fighters is a requirement to achieve the goals of the war.
“I send my condolences from the bottom of my heart to the families of the victims of the campaign and best wishes for a speedy recovery to the wounded.”
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich described the incident as “heartbreaking news. Condolences from the bottom of my heart to the families of the heroes, the entire nation of Israel embraces you with a broken and aching heart. Our commitment is to ensure that the fall of our soldiers will not be in vain.”
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said “Precisely now it is clearer than ever – the war must not be stopped, the fighting must not be reduced. We must continue to subdue, crush and mow down the Nazi enemy in Gaza with all our might. “
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana said, “It’s a difficult morning for the people of Israel to wake up to this heartbreaking news. On behalf of the Knesset, I would like to send my heartfelt condolences to the families of the fallen. Each of them is a world full of families, hopes, and dreams that were cut short prematurely. We all wish and pray for a speedy recovery of the wounded.”
Yesh Atid Leader Yair Lapid said that he “sends a hug to the families of the soldiers. The entire nation of Israel is with you in your difficult time. May their memory be a blessing.”
National Unity Party Leader Benny Gantz said, “On this difficult morning, we must be united, remember the heavy price we are forced to pay for such a just war and the goal for which our heroes fell – to secure our future, to return our daughters and sons, and to take care of Israel forever. Especially today, we are sending strength to all IDF soldiers and their commanders. We are all behind you.”
Agriculture Minister and security cabinet member Avi Dichter said, “Most of the soldiers were reservists, who left entire families without a father and an entire country shocked and in pain.”
Far-left Hadash MK Ofer Cassif gives his “condolences to the families affected and best wishes for a speedy and full recovery to the injured.
“Their blood is on the hands of this atrocious government that sacrifices masses just for its own survival. They led us into the abyss, and they have no one to blame but themselves! They, in a messianic nightmare, ask for houses on the beach to be built on the corpses of soldiers, hostages, and thousands of Palestinians.
“There must be an uncompromising and fearless alternative in front of them that will stop the rivers of blood! A Jewish-Arab alternative of justice, equality, and peace. These criminals must leave already! Elections now!”
end
(Times of Israel)
IDF carries out operation to destroy Hamas tunnels on Khan Younis outskirts
As Israeli troops operate deep within Khan Younis, the IDF announces that reservists of Gaza Division’s Southern Brigade recently wrapped up offensive and defensive operations on the outskirts of the southern Gaza city.
Troops of the 630th Reserve Battalion operated with combat engineers to locate and destroy Hamas “attack tunnel” shafts and other underground infrastructure on the outskirts of northern Khan Younis, the IDF says.
Also as part of the Southern Brigade’s operations, reservists of the 261st Brigade worked to destroy Hamas infrastructure in the border area, the IDF says.
Amid their operation yesterday, Hamas fired RPGs at the troops, hitting a tank and apparently setting off mines that the IDF had rigged to demolish two buildings, killing 21 soldiers.
It was the deadliest single incident in the IDF’s ongoing ground offensive in Gaza.
Israel Offers Substantial 2-Month Gaza Ceasefire For Release Of All Hostages
MONDAY, JAN 22, 2024 – 06:40 PM
In a huge and surprise development, Israel has made a substantial proposal for a new ceasefire deal that includes multiple phases at the end of which all remaining hostages held in Gaza would be released. The negotiations front has been quiet and considered to be a failure for the past couple months, leading to general pessimism that Israel had a new proposal in the works. At the same time the Red Sea crisis and damage to global shipping through the vital transit waterway has reached a boiling point.
Israeli officials have confirmed the deal on the table to Axios, which has involved Qatari and Egyptian mediators, but it’s still too early to know whether Hamas will seriously contemplate it, given continued fierce ground fighting happening in the southern Strip, focused particularly on the city of Khan Younis. Yet it’s a rare hopeful sign after weeks of regional escalation and worsening news.
Axios writes in the breaking Monday report that “While the proposal doesn’t include an agreement to end the war, it is the longest period of ceasefire that Israel has offered Hamas since the start of the war.” The proposed deal envisions a two-month long pause in fighting.
Presumably the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would not retreat from their positions in northern Gaza, but would likely initiate some degree of pullback in the south. Aerial bombardment would cease, but it would also require Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to halt their rockets launched into southern Israel.
Over 130 hostages still remain in Gaza, though there are fears some could have already died or have been executed. Inside Israel, domestic pressure is growing on the Netanyahu government to strike a deal. Increasingly large and angry protests have been sustained, led by victims’ families who have demanded that Netanyahu gain captives’ freedom at any cost.
Of the some 250 people kidnapped on Oct.7, there were 105 freed back in November as a result of Qatari-mediated negotiations. Of the rest which remained in captivity, the Israeli miliary has since said that 31 have died or been executed. Three of these were killed in a tragic friendly fire incident which outraged Israeli society. All of this has contributed pressure on the government to offer a serious proposal.
Israeli officials have been cited as saying their outlook remains “cautiously optimistic.” Biden’s envoy Brett McGurk is in Egypt working with Qatar and other parties on hammering out the deal. According to more of the details via Axios:
Under the proposed deal, Israel and Hamas would agree in advance on how many Palestinian prisoners would be released for each Israeli hostage in each category and then separate negotiations on the names of these prisoners would take place, the officials said.
The Israeli officials said the proposal includes Israel redeploying Israeli Defense Forces so that some would be moved out of main population centers in the enclave and allowing a gradual return of Palestinian civilians to Gaza city and the northern Gaza strip as the deal is being implemented.
The Israeli officials said the proposal makes clear Israel will not agree to end the war and will not agree to release all 6,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.
The Israelis have yet to promise that will halt all military actions, but targeting would likely become more focused and smaller in scale. In the November deal, which included a successful ceasefire that held for a week, hundreds of Palestinians were freed from Israeli prisons.
A key reason why it wasn’t extended is that Israeli leaders accused Hamas of seeking to separate family members. Israel said that in separating children from their mothers, Hamas was seeking to inject last-minute leverage. The November ceasefire collapsed and wasn’t renewed over disagreements regarding which hostage groups would be freed in follow-up rounds.
Thus even if Hamas is amenable to this new deal on the table, the two sides would have to agree on which hostages go free in specific phases. Hamas is also likely to push for multiple thousands of Palestinians to be let from from jails, if not all of them. And Tel Aviv has already said that is a non-starter.
Gaza’s health ministry has meanwhile said the Gaza death toll has surpassed 25,000 – and is made up of mostly civilians. For this reason Israel finds itself under increasing scrutiny and isolation from the “international community” – but the US and UK have stuck firmly by its side, and are even stepping up intelligence assistance and surveillance drone flights over the Strip.
If the brakes don’t get applied to the Gaza war anytime soon, the ongoing regional spillover could explode into a huge regional conflagration with unforeseen consequences…
If there actually were a two-month pause, this could mean a good chance of a lasting peace. However, Netanyahu shows no signs of backing down from his ultimate war aim of completely eradicating Hamas. Regardless, a substantive and far-reaching offer of a deal in and of itself helps him politically at this tense moment.
At this point it’s entirely unclear how many battlefield losses Hamas has suffered, but it’s likely in the thousands, yet by all account the jihadist militant group remains intact, and is effectively using the vast Gaza tunnel network in guerilla and insurgent operations.
END
ISRAEL GAZA
IDF’s latest push in western Khan Yunis remains intense
Dozens more Hamas terrorists had been killed by Tuesday morning.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBJANUARY 23, 2024 11:21Updated: JANUARY 23, 2024 11:38
IDF troops on the ground in Gaza, January 22, 2024(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF on Tuesday continued its major division-level new push in western Khan Yunis, which it had started on Monday, maintaining the most intense fighting since early December when the military first entered other parts of Hamas’s southern capital.
Combined between Monday and Tuesday, more than 100 Hamas terrorists have already been killed in larger-than-usual organized battles, with 50 Hamas fighters killed on Monday and dozens more on Tuesday.
There were no signs that the incident in central Gaza in which 21 IDF soldiers were killed was having any direct impact on the ongoing Khan Yunis attack.
On Monday, Division 98 unleashed serious forces from its seven brigades, artillery, tanks, and air support and surrounded western Khan Yunis, which until now, the IDF had mostly steered clear of.
IDF soldiers of Division 98 in Khan Yunis, January 22, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed a number of ambush units with rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-tank missiles, as well as a number of Hamas forces in extremely close-range fighting.
The IDF’s message early Monday morning about large amounts of airstrikes was in preparation to give the ground forces an easier time moving into the new areas.Advertisement
For the last seven weeks, IDF attacks on Khan Yunis had focused on the northern and eastern portions of the city.
On both days, the IDF called western Khan Yunis the heart of Hamas’s operations there, including areas where its top two leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, grew up.
Further, the IDF said that it recognizes that this part of Khan Yunis is the most dense area in the city in terms of having less room to maneuver and a larger number of civilians and sensitive sites, including hospitals.
It said that it had learned many lessons from dealing with some parallel issues in northern Gaza, while also noting some critical differences unique to southern Gaza.
The IDF hopes this new push will break the ability of the Khan Yunis Brigade to continue to fight as an organized force.
There are still no immediate plans though to enter Rafah or take control of the Philadelphi Corridor.
Also, the IDF did not say anything specific about a lead toward Hamas’s leadership or the hostages, though the operation seemed, at the very least, designed to increase pressure on the terror group.
END
IRAN/IRAQ/USA
Iran, emboldened by a weak Biden is now mobilizing to drive the uSA troops out of Iraq.
When Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York City in September for the UN General Assembly, a delicate truce was in balance between the two foreign powers that loom over Baghdad. Iraqi paramilitaries, backed by Iran, had frozen their attacks on US troops in the country. Iraq’s new leader arrived in New York City amid the lull. He was feted on a circuit of swanky receptions with western businessmen and diplomats on the sidelines of the General Assembly, as he pitched Iraq’s oil-rich but corruption-riddled economy as an investment destination.
Four months later, the Iraqi leader is condemning Iran and the US for launching deadly strikes in his country and his investment pitch to the global elite at Davos Switzerland is overshadowed by his call for the US military and its coalition partners to leave Iraq. Since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7 and the war in Gaza, Iranian-backed militias have launchedat least 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq.
In early January, the US hit back with its most powerful response yet, launching a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, a senior commander in the Popular Mobilization Units, an umbrella organisation of Iraqi state-funded and Iran-aligned, Shia militias.
Baghdad hit out at the strike as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty”. But no sooner was Iraq chastiszing the US for the strike, when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the Iraqi city of Erbil, killing four people, including a prominent Kurdish real estate developer and his one-year-old daughter.
Baghdad slammed Tehran’s allegation that the house struck in Erbil was an Israeli Mossad “spy center”. At Davos, Sudani called the strike “a clear act of aggression”. Iraq has recalled its ambassador to Tehran and says it will file a complaint at the UN Security Council.
The dual rebukes of Iran and the US underscore the tightrope Baghdad is walking as the war in Gaza seeps out beyond the besieged Mediterranean enclave’s borders. Across the region, Tehran and Washington are flexing their muscles, vying to outflank each other in a deadly proxy war. The shadowy conflict has taken on different flavours that reflect local and geopolitical realities.
In Lebanon, the US is trying to de-escalate fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with both sides wary of being dragged into a wider conflict. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen have made themselves targets of US air strikes as a response to their attacks on commercial shipping.
But the conflict is perhaps at its most intense, and complex, in Iraq. “The Iraqi government is weak, divided and fundamentally can’t control conflict on its borders from foreign powers,” Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Chatham House think-tank, told Middle East Eye.
“It emerged as the playground of choice, where the US and Iran can fight it out. The risk of escalation here is lower for both. And they can show force and compete for influence.”
Syria, through Iraq
For Iran and its Iraqi allies who dominate Baghdad’s government, the war in Gaza has presented an opportunity to drive home their goal of expelling the US from Iraq. A former senior US official and an Iraqi official told MEE that there has been increased coordination between Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq and Lebanese Hezbollah with that aim. According to media reports, a top Hezbollah official, Mohammad Hussein al-Kawtharani, arrived in Baghdad earlier this month to oversee the operations.
“Instead of attacking Israel, what we are seeing in Iraq are more attacks on US forces,” Andrew Tabler, a former Middle East director at the White House’s National Security Council, told MEE. The pressure building in Baghdad to expel US troops has been underlined by Sudani’s public calls for an exit since the assassination of Abu Taqwa. If he follows through, experts say it would present a strategic victory for Iran.
Roughly 2,500 US troops are in Iraq to advise and train local forces as part of a coalition to defeat the Islamic State militant group. They are mainly based in Baghdad and northern Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region. The latter is especially important for providing logistical support to 900 US troops in northeastern Syria.
The US’s legal justification for being in Syria is also based on its agreement with Baghdad. “Erbil is crucial for supporting Syria,” Tabler said, referring to the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region. “The US needs to have the ability to move troops and supplies on the overland route between the Iraqi frontier and Syria.”
Speaking in Davos on Thursday, Sudani said that “ISIS is no longer a threat to the Iraqi people,” and that “the end of the international coalition mission is a necessity for the security and stability of Iraq”.
The Biden administration and Baghdad were already negotiating the future of the US-led coalition in Iraq before the war in Gaza erupted, a former senior US official told MEE, but the war changed Washington’s approach to the talks. “It doesn’t look good to be discussing a drawdown when the Iranians are attacking US soldiers with missiles and drones. So there is a sense from the administration that we need to pause these talks.”
While the US continues to conduct small-scale raids against IS cells in the region, Washington views its military footprint in northeast Syria as a key counterweight to Iran and Russia, which back the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria. “The US mission in northeast Syria depends on Iraq,” Joel Rayburn, a former US special envoy for Syria, told MEE.
‘Same foxhole’
The US military presence in Iraq has ebbed and flowed since the invasion 20 years ago. In 2011, the US pulled all of its forces from Iraq, only for them to return in 2014 at the invitation of Baghdad to fight IS. But in that period, Shia paramilitaries backed by Iran emerged as the most powerful armed groups in Iraq. Trained and funded by Iran, the Popular Mobilisation Units also fought IS.
Some groups, like Kata’ib Hezbollah, have been at the forefront of attacks on the US in Iraq. The group’s founder, Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, was killed in the same US strike that assassinated the Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani.
Today, the PMUs boast more than 150,000 fighters. They maintain vast patronage networks and many are incorporated into Iraq’s official state security apparatus, with the Iraqi government paying their salaries. They have been accused of kidnappings, assassinations and suppressing peaceful protests.
The inability of successive Iraqi governments to rein in the sweeping powers of the PMUs has sown discord between Baghdad and Washington. Not only have US forces come under attack from the paramilitary groups, but Washington funds Iraq’s security system. In 2022, Iraq received $250m in military aid from the US.
Despite sporadic outbursts of fighting between the paramilitaries and Iraq’s security services, “the cost of going against the militias for the Iraqi government is far higher than the cost of keeping them,” Abbas Kadhim, head of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told MEE. “For Washington, it’s an urgency because they are under attack, but it’s not a crisis for the Iraqi state. The militias are fighting in the same foxhole as the Iraqi government.”
Pay raise for Iranian militias
Sudani is supported by the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Tehran-backed Shia political parties that are tied to many of Iraq’s paramilitaries. While Sudani negotiated a six-month truce that saw attacks on US forces in Iraq stop, the PMUs have gained more influence under his rule, experts say.
“Iran-backed militias have a more visible presence on Baghdad’s streets during Sudani’s tenure,” setting up new checkpoints, Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote, adding that they have also deepened their business activities.
This year, Sudani’s government passed a three-year budget that allocated $700m more dollars to the PMUs, which will allow them to add almost 100,000 new fighters to their ranks, according to analysts. But current and former US and Iraqi officials say Baghdad wants to maintain good relations with Washington.
Sudani has framed his call for quick exit of US-led coalition troops as necessary to preserve “constructive bilateral relations” with the US, which he told Reuters could include training and advising Iraqi security forces. His comments are a reflection of the unique ties Baghdad maintains to both Washington and Tehran.
The dollar trap
Iran and Iraq share a thousand-mile border. The two Shia-majority countries have an estimated ten million border crossings annually, with many Iranian pilgrims visiting shrines in Karbala and Najaf. Iraq is the second most important destination for Iranian exports and is dependent on Iran for about 35 to 40 percent of its power needs.
Iran has never shied away from flexing its economic weight over its neighbor. But Iraq’s finances are also intricately tied to the US.
The second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraq depends on its oil revenue to fund its government – including to pay the salaries of Iranian-backed paramilitaries. The proceeds from Iraq’s oil sales are deposited in the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
A recent US crackdown on money laundering in Iraq has helped fuel a currency crisis in Iraq, showcasing the immense sway Washington has over Iraq’s finances because of its dependence on the dollar. The US has also backed Sudani’s appeal for international investments in Iraq.
When Baghdad threatened to expel US-led coalition forces from Iraq after the 2020 assassination of Soleimani, the Trump administration threatened to cut Iraq’s access to its dollar reserves and stop issuing sanctions waivers for Iraq to buy Iranian energy, former US officials familiar with the talks told MEE.
The same officials say that cudgel is an option the Biden administration retains if demands for a US exit grow, but some question whether the administration would use it, after trying to reset relations with Baghdad after the tumultuous Trump years. “The US can’t be expelled from Iraq if it doesn’t want to be,” Rayburn, the former US special envoy for Syria, told MEE.
“If the US doesn’t have a military presence in Iraq, then the US need not do other things on behalf of the Iraqi government. Like facilitating dollar supply from the Federal Reserve, protecting against lawsuits, and issuing sanctions waivers,” he said.
While Iranian-backed militias want to expel the US from Iraq, experts say even the most hardline groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah benefit from Iraq’s economic links to the West. “Even the most anti-American leaders in Iraq realize they need some kind of relationship with the US,” Mansour told MEE. “Iraq is a lifeline for Iran. Its access to US dollars and financial markets is key.”
Kadhim, at the Atlantic Council, believes the focus among policymakers in Washington to merely protect US troop presence in Iraq is shortsighted. “Of course, Iran’s ideal goal is to get the US out of Iraq completely, but their practical goal is to make the US presence a liability,” which he says, the Iranians have already achieved.
“Basically, you have a small number of US troops in Iraq sequestered to their barracks. They can’t even go to town,” he said. “In the long run, someone is going to ask why are we here.”
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL
end
LEBANON/ISRAEL
IAF destroys Iranian-operated Hezbollah assets in Lebanon
IAF fighter jets completed an attack on terrorist targets in Lebanon, the IDF reported on Tuesday.
During the strike, the IAF destroyed a military asset used by Hezbollah and operated by Iranian forces.
Throughout the day, IDF troops attacked several other areas in Lebanese territory, the IDF added.
The IDF stated, “Hezbollah’s military activity south of the Litani River in Lebanon, including the use and storage of armaments, is a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
“The IDF will continue to defend Israel’s borders from any threat,” it concluded.
Earlier on Tuesday, the Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen network reported the IAF carried out airstrikes in the town of Rumin in southern Lebanon.
This comes after the IDF announced on Tuesday that an IAF base had been damaged by rocket fire from Lebanon.
WASHINGTON — The United States and Britain carried out an additional round of strikes against Yemen’s Houthis over their targeting of Red Sea shipping, the Pentagon says, targeting an underground storage site, missiles and other Houthi military capabilities.
The Pentagon details the eight new strikes in a joint statement with Britain, as well as from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, which supported the latest military action, the statement says.
“These precision strikes are intended to disrupt and degrade the capabilities that the Houthis use to threaten global trade and the lives of innocent mariners,” the statement says.
A separate statement from the UK Ministry of Defence says British aircraft used precision-guided bombs to strike multiple targets near the Sanaa airfield.
END
HOUTHIS//USA/
It is too expensive for the USA to use anti-ballistic missiles to knock off cheap drones. They will need the new Israeli laser defense system where the cost is only 2 cents per shot
(Libertarian Institute)
Lawmakers Push Funding To Replace The Ultra-Expensive Weapons Used In Yemen
As the White House has started an open-ended and unauthorized war in Yemen, some members of Congress are pushing for legislation that would provide funding to replace the munitions dropped on the Middle East’s poorest nation.
Politico reports, “As American warships burn through expensive missiles against Houthi targets in the Red Sea and Yemen, lawmakers, lobbyists, and the Navy are angling to use a multibillion-dollar national security supplemental to replenish the military’s inventory of munitions.”
In November, the Houthis announced that Yemeni forces would target Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea until Tel Aviv ends its military campaign in Gaza. Two weeks ago, President Joe Biden, without consulting Congress, authorized strikes on the Houthis.
In response, the Houthis began targeting American-linked shipping transiting the region. The White House is ordering attacks on Yemen nearly every day. However, the White House claims it is not at war with Yemen, and it does not need Congressional authorization for the operations.
Biden’s war in Yemen could drag on for some time. US officials told the Washington Post the administration has “no end date” and “little exit strategy” for its military operations in Yemen. President Biden has admitted that the strikes are not deterring the Houthi attacks.
Additionally, the US operations against Yemen are expensive. Washington has combated drone and missile attacks from Yemen on ships in the Red Sea by using expensive interceptors to down the inexpensive Houthi munitions. The White House has largely relied on ship-fired Tomahawks to hit targets in Yemen. Some lawmakers worry the operations against the Houthis will impact Wasington’s ability to dominate the globe.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said fighting in Yemen means Congress needs to add further spending for munitions to a supplemental military funding package. “As I’ve warned for weeks, using million-dollar missiles to defend against thousand-dollar drones strains an already insufficient inventory of long-range capabilities,” he added. “The supplemental is our chance to expand our capacity to meet the national security challenges we face.”
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) argued that additional missiles are needed to confront China. “We’re looking — one of the parts of the supplemental is to make sure we have the rounds we need, whether it’s [the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile] or possibly things like [the] Tomahawk that we have for the Western Pacific.” He continues, “And that is a capability we would need if we ever got in a conflict with China.”
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) said “a big plus up” in munitions funding is imperative for Tomahawks, Naval Strike Missiles, and Harpoons. He also explained that the weapons are needed for global dominance. “And those kinds of weapons systems are critical everywhere, Taiwan in particular,” the Senator said.
Politico notes that Pentagon officials and lobbyists for arms makers are also pushing for increased funding for munitions production in a supplemental defense spending bill.
END
.END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine’s spy chief admits that it is not even conceivable that they can win without massive mobilization as so many have been killed already
(zerohedge)
Ukraine’s Spy Chief: “Not Even Conceivable” That We Can Win Without Massive Mobilization
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 04:15 AM
“The shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” Ukraine’s military top spy chief, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, told Financial Times in a new interview, describing the most pressing situation facing the country after nearly two years of war.
He warned that“it is not even conceivable to think that we can do without mobilization” — which reflects the consensus of the military’s leadership, and strongly points to staggering losses by the Ukrainian side, though an official running casualty count has never been revealed. Russia has also likely suffered immense losses, but can tap into much greater manpower and artillery, which is also allegedly being supplied from such nefarious actors as North Korea.
As part of its report, FT has reviewed that Zelensky recently revealed that his army chiefs requested him “to mobilize about 400,000 to 500,000 new soldiers to replace those killed or wounded, and to rest those involved in the most intense fighting.”
Still, Budanov tried to paint an optimistic picture at a moment that even mainstream US press has lamented the current state of the war as a total failure and disaster for Ukraine:
Ukrainian troops never managed to decisively breach Russia’s heavily fortified defences: the frontline remains almost the same as it looked a year ago. But Budanov maintains he was not wrong.
“Although the original plans suggested something different, we kept our promise. This summer, our units repeatedly entered Crimea,” he said, referring to his commandos sneaking on to the peninsula to carry out raids on Russian bases.
Not only have Ukrainian operatives done brief but ineffective raids into Crimea, but the last several weeks have seen stepped-up cross border drone and rocket attacks against Russian border regions, particularly targeting Belgorod city, resulting in dozens of casualties over months of sporadic waves of strikes.
Many war analysts have looked upon these attacks on Russian territory as a sign of increasing desperation. The Ukrainian strikes have been focused on civilian areas of Belgorod, and have little or no strategic value, but is more an act of ‘revenge’ and perhaps part of seeking to impose a “cost” on the Russian population in hopes of pressuring the Putin government.
Kiev has been mulling a new mass mobilization since at least December, when media reports first cited Zelensky as saying, “This is a serious number,” while explaining further he has to look at more arguments to support this direction.” He added at the time, “I need concrete information on what will (then) happen with the one-million military of Ukraine,” according to The Kyiv Independent.
Any new mass mobilization is likely to be met with fierce pushback among the population and some government officials. Already there have been signs of fracture within the government over what to do as it’s increasingly clear Ukrainian forces are ‘losing’ – especially in manpower, arms, and ammo.
Zelensky’s security services and military recruiters have also been accused of abusing their power under martial law, also amid allegations of corruption, with The New York Times having previouslyreported Ukrainian army recruiters have become “increasingly aggressive in their efforts to replenish the ranks, in some cases pulling men off the streets and whisking them to recruiting centers using intimidation and even physical force.”
There have even been reports of men with diagnosed mental disabilities being subjected to attempted drafts. Currently, men ages 18-60 may be mobilized and still have no right to leave Ukraine, per the stipulations under martial law.
FT has underscored that Ukraine’s prospects look bleak at the start of this new year:
Finally returning to the subject of the war, Budanov declined to make any bold predictions for 2024. “No,” he said. “I hope that our success will be greater than theirs.” Then he slipped out of the darkened room.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have continued their desperate tactics while the frontlines have not moved and Russia solidifies hold over the Donbass. On Sunday, at least 27 people were killed after Ukrainian forces heavily shelled a market on the outskirts of the Russian-controlled city of Donestk.
“As a result of Ukraine’s artillery shelling attack on the Tekstilshchik district, 27 civilians have died. Twenty-five more, including two teenagers, received various wounds,” announced Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
END
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
ROBERT H TO US:
“Zero creditability and now the WEF is trying to sell the scare of disease X to make more money for big pharma. As people awaken and realize we are all being sold a bill of goods resistance to this rather comical mass media approach to have control will fail more visibly. And people will realize it is them vs people, every last one of us who wants to be free to choose as opposed to being told what to do. People like Klaus never see past their own hubris and ultimately fail because they refuse to understand human nature. The history books are full of similar people and organizations who have left devastation in their wake.”
CDC Labeled Accurate Articles As Misinformation, Documents Show
The top U.S. public health agency labeled multiple news articles as misinformation even though the articles were accurate, according to internal emails and experts.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added the misinformation labels to articles from The Epoch Times in widely-circulated internal messages, according to copies obtained by The Epoch Times.
One of the articles reported on a peer-reviewed paper that found heart inflammation, or myocarditis, was more common after COVID-19 vaccination than after COVID-19 infection.
Nordic researchers reviewed electronic health records and counted 109 cases of myocarditis following COVID-19 infection compared to 530 after vaccination. Their study was published by the British Medical Journal.
An internal CDC email said that the study “has been picked up by anti-vax proponents as evidence that vax was more likely to cause myocarditis than COVID-19 infection,” and provided a hyperlink to The Epoch Times article.
The Feb. 7, 2023, email listed the article under “points of confusion/potential rumors/misinformation.”
The CDC did not list any data or other information supporting its label.
“The Epoch Times article should not be labeled as misinformation,” Dr. Tracy Hoeg, a physician-scientist at the University of California-San Francisco, told The Epoch Times via email.
Dr. Hoeg said the Nordic study aligned with earlier research, including a paper published by JAMA Cardiology that found myocarditis rates were higher among some populations after vaccination compared to after infection.
Another CDC email claimed a story reporting on how the U.S. government was receiving royalty payments from Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine was inaccurate or misleading.
The Epoch Times article reported on how Moderna officials disclosed in an earnings call that the company entered a patent agreement with the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), sent a payment of $400 million, and would be paying additional royalties in the future.
“Anti-vax proponents question Moderna’s new patent agreement with NIAID, citing catch up payments and royalties as a ‘conflict of interest,” the CDC email, dated March 1, 2023, stated.
The Epoch Times article quoted Dr. Lawrence Tabak, the director at the time of the NIAID’s parent agency, as admitting royalty payments in general present “an appearance of a conflict of interest.”
The CDC defines employees taking part in matters in which they have a financial interest as a conflict of interest, while the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the parent agency of the CDC, says that financial conflicts of interest can compromise honesty “especially if the financial interests are significant.”
“It is certainly interesting that, confronted with possible ethics concerns, the CDC doesn’t address them but dismisses them as ‘misinformation,’” Michael Chamberlain, director of the nonprofit Protect the Public’s Trust, told The Epoch Times via email.
The CDC also labeled an Epoch Times video featuring a doctor describing data on COVID-19 vaccines negatively impacting gut health as misinformation, the emails show, even though the video was based on publishedresearch.
“The information contained in these documents illustrates how federal health officials so rapidly squandered the trust of the American public, and it shows the danger of government setting itself up as an arbiter of truth,” Mr. Chamberlain said.
“The agency is quick to slap a derogatory label on any statements that don’t fit its preferred narrative, and just as quick to impugn the motives of anyone who dares make those statements. This is not government working for the people, it is government as adversary to the people.”
More on Emails
The emails were circulated to more than 150 people in the CDC and the HHS.
They were sent by Emily Matthews, a contractor acting on behalf of the CDC’s Research & Evaluation Team.
Additional emails showed Colin Bernatzky, a CDC public health analyst, decrying articles from The Epoch Times articles on research, including a peer-reviewed paper that analyzed autopsies done on people who died following COVID-19 vaccination and concluded many of the deaths were likely due to the vaccines.
Ms. Matthews and Mr. Bernatzky did not respond to inquiries The CDC declined to comment.
“I know this has come up previously around CDC’s rapid response capabilities/strategies to address misinformation,” another CDC official wrote, as Mr. Bernatzky’s concerns were distributed within the agency.
“I feel like this needs to be its own special report … and we could highlight what themes/topics are these ant-vax [sic] topics covering,” another official said, adding later that he could see the U.S. Department of Homeland Security “having opinions on this.”
The emails were obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. Large portions are redacted.
Government agencies, including the CDC, were found to have conspired with social media companies to censor a wide range of speech, including posts that provided accurate information about COVID-19 vaccines. As part of that effort, the CDC passed on misinformation to Facebook, documents showed. The agency has also offered misinformation about vaccines in presentations and on social media.
The government likely violated constitutional rights with its efforts, courtshave ruled.
The Supreme Court is set to soon take up the legal case that uncovered the conspiracy.
It happened recently at BAFTA and the Emmys, just as it did at the Oscars in 2022 and 2023—and surely will again at the Academy Awards this March, SO MANY having now “died suddenly”
Among the (many) missing from the “In Memoriam” segment at last year’s Academy Awards:
Ann Heche:
Tom Sizemore:
Charlbi Dean:
Tony Sirico:
Cindy Williams:
Paul Sorvino:
Melinda Dillon:
Stella Stevens:
end
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
SLAY NEWS
The latest reports from Slay News
WEF Member Demands ‘Global Carbon Taxes’ to Force Climate ‘Transition’During the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual summit in Switzerland, one of the unelected organization’s most powerful members called for nations to enforce “carbon taxes” on a global level to force the public to “transition” into the globalist climate agenda.READ MORE
Republicans Move to Defund the WEFHouse Republicans have responded to growing concerns about the World Economic Forum (WEF) moving to defund Klaus Schwab’s unelected globalist organization.READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
HUGE!!
Trudeau’s Orwellian Attack On Canadian Truckers Declared Unconstitutional
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 02:05 PM
Canada’s Federal Court ruled on Tuesday that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s use of the Emergencies Act in 2022 to punish protesting truckers was both unreasonable and unconstitutional.
“I have concluded that the decision to issue the Proclamation does not bear the hallmarks of reasonableness — justification, transparency and intelligibility — and was not justified in relation to the relevant factual and legal constraints that were required to be taken into consideration,” wrote Justice Richard G. Mosley in his ruling.
The decision follows an application for judicial review requested by the Canadian Constitution Foundation, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, and various other applicants who cried foul over the use of emergency measures to quell Freedom Convoy protests in Ottawa, which allowed the government to freeze the bank accounts of protesters, conscript tow truck drivers, and arrest people for participating in assemblies deemed illegal by Trudeau’s government.
According to Mosley, Trudeau’s regulations had violated Charter rights – particularly against freedom of thought, opinion and expression. The Emergencies Act order was also found to infringe on the right to security against unreasonable search and seizure.
“It is declared that the decision to issue the Proclamation and the association Regulations and Order was unreasonable and ultra vires the Emergencies Act,” reads the ruling.
“It is declared that the decision that the Regulations infringed section 2 (b) of the Charter and declared that the Order infringed section 8 of the Charter and that neither infringement was justified under section 1.”
The Canadian Constitution Foundation had initiated the judicial review, expressing concerns over what they deemed as a severe example of government overreach and violations of civil liberties during the pandemic.
“The Trudeau government’s use of this extraordinary law may be the most severe example of overreach and violations of civil liberties that was seen during the pandemic,” said Van Geyn at the time.
“The use of this powerful l
END
ROBERT H TO ME:
Trudeau’s Orwellian Attack On Canadian Truckers Declared Unconstitutional | ZeroHedge
“This is huge deal for all Canadians and all investors in Canada. Why? Because if the charter has been violated then all those parties that followed this have liability acting upon such instruction. While the banks were reluctant they obeyed. No doubt with arm twisting by Ottawa.
And all citizens of Canada have an unreasonable and constitutional Abuser in office. The sooner the NDP ditch this albatross called Trudeau the more likely they will avoid political damage. Otherwise, they will likely feel the public boot along with Trudeau.”
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0864 DOWN .0013
USA/ YEN 148.02 DOWN 0.124 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2707 UP .0007
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3477 UP .0001 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.53%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 392.80 PTS OR 2.63%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.52% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 392.80 PTS OR 2.63%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.64 PTS OR 0.53%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.52%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 29.38 OR 0.08%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2024.50
silver:$22.26
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103,28 UP 12 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1733
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1751)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.27 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.636…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.146% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.3777 UP 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.406 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 32.62 PTS OR 0.44%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 122.95 PTS OR 0.74%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 44.07 PTS OR 0.60%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 115.40 PTS OR 1.17%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 111.90 PTS OR 0.37%
WTI Oil price 74.69 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.77 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.52; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 73//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.337 UP 9 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.014 UP 10 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0845 DOWN .0035 OR 35 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2684 DOWN .0023 or 23 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0320 UP 10 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.664%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.37 UP 0.225//YEN DOWN 23 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3468 DOWN 0.0010 CDN dollar UP 10 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 74.49
Brent OIL: 79.66
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.142%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.369%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.383%
USA dollar index: 103.40 UP 27 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 29.99 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.70 DOWN 0 AND 90/100 roubles
GOLD 2028.10 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.44 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 96.16 PTS OR 0.25%
NASDAQ UP 73.82 PTS OR 0.43%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.67 DOWN .52 PTS OR 3.94%
GLD: $187.95 UP 0.73 OR 0.39%
SLV/ $20.53 UP ,31 OR 1.53%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Crypto Carnage Continues As Dollar Spikes, Yield Curve Steepens With ‘Soft’ Data Slumping
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Richmond Fed manufacturing and Phuilly Fed services surveys both disappointed today – both signaling economic contraction, new orders declining, and employment pressures. The decline in business sentiment matches what we saw from New York last week and remains disconnected from the improvement we are seeing in consumer confidence…
Source: Bloomberg
…a product of the latter’s likely focus on the stock market (and gasoline prices)… which was up again today (for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new record closing highs). Small Caps and The Dow ended the day red…
For the 5th day in a row, ‘most-shorted’ stocks saw the same trading pattern – opening bid gap higher, immediate selling pressure into EU close, then another squeeze into the close highs…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Magnificent 7’ stocks were higher today but not convincingly – are we back in the 3 days up, 3 days sideways trend…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were sold today, erasing yesterday’s gains as the long-end underperformed (30Y +5bps, 2Y -1bps), leaving the long-end up on the week (while the rest of the curve is hovering around unch)…
Source: Bloomberg
…which left the yield curve (2s30s) bear-steepening back up to almost dis-inverted…
The dollar spike back to last week’s 2024 highs today
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar’s reversal low was at its 50DMA, and today’s high reversal was at the 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the day higher despite the dollar gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil ended unchanged after WTI tested $75 intraday at the top of recent range…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Chinese authorities tried (and failed) again to put a floor under their wealth-destroying equity-market-collapse – jawboning a multi-billion-dollar buying package (that barely managed to get the broadest measures of Chinese stocks higher)…
Asian traders are at their wit’s end:
“I have reached the stage whereby my confidence as a trader is lost,” Singapore Hedge Fund ‘Asia Genesis’ CIO Chua Soon Hock wrote in a letter to investors. Reflecting on the unprecedented moves for China stocks (down) and Japan stocks (up), Chua wrote January “has proven that my past experience is no longer valid and instead, is working against me.”
“I still do not understand the inconsistency of China policy makers not fighting against deflation,” the fund manager continued, adding that:
“I have lost my knowledge, trading and psychological edge… The principle of risk-reward for both the short term and long term has turned on its head.”
Revolution through routed wealth (do nothing – or keep pretending to do something – and hope it bottoms out) or wrecked buying power (stimmy-driven rebound sparks surge in inflation) – either way, not a good horizon for Beijing.
END
MORNING TRADING//
end
AFTERNOON TRADING
II USA DATA
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Surveys Crashes To Lowest Since COVID, Philly Fed Services Back Into Contraction
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 10:55 AM
The slump in ‘soft’ survey data continues this morning with disappointments from the Philly and Richmond Feds.
The flashing red signals for US manufacturing flashed redder-er this morning as the Richmond Fed survey showed manufacturing activity plummeted to -15 (considersably worse than the -8 exp) to its lowest since the COVID lockdowns…
Under the hood was a shitshow with new orders sliding further into contraction (from −14 to −16), and employment collapsing from −1 to −15… but wages jumped…
The capacity utilization index plunged from −8 to −27 in January, with about one-third of respondents reporting a decline in capacity utilization since December.
And while a manufacturing recession is not breaking news, the narrative-shapers can’t just claim ‘well, services will support it… and 70% of economy etc….’ as the Philly Fed Services survey slumped back into contraction in January.
The red line is the original survey prints (which were entirely revised today)…
Under the hood, it was not as ugly as Richmond but we do note the part-time employment index increased from -0.5 to 10.2 this month, its highest reading since June 2022.
Additionally, price indicator readings suggest continued increases in prices for inputs and prices for the firms’ own goods and services. The prices paid index moved up 2 points to 33.8. Over 36 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices
And so, ‘soft’ survey data is crashing as ‘hard’ economic data has been outperforming recently…
Isn’t is interesting how the survey data is so heralded by the optimists, commission-rakers, and asset-gatherers when it’s up and rising, but not so much when it’s down and falling?
end
TUCKER CARLSON..
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Good Bellwether of things to come:
(zerohedge)
3M Crashes Most In 5 Years After Full Year Forecast Disappoints Again
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 12:05 PM
Shares of consumer product giant and bellwether 3M sank after it forecast 2024 profits and sales growth that fell short of estimates, disappointing Wall Street after a major restructuring push had lifted results last year.
The company said that Adjusted EPS will be no more than $9.75 per share in 2024, missing the $9.81 consensus average with organic sales expected to be flat to up 2%; also missing the analyst estimate of up 2.7%. The cautious outlook was announced as 3M reported Q4 adjusted earnings that were well above Wall Street estimates, helped by the restructuring push: Adjusted EPS were $2.42, beating the $2.31 analysts estimate, even as the adjusted operating margin of 20.9% missed expectations of 21.2%. In addition, a higher tax rate and other expenses represented a 29-cent headwind to the company’s full-year earnings forecast, 3M President Monish Patolawala said.
According to the UBS, the 2024 guidance implies $200 million y/y net restructuring benefits, which can be seen as the low end of potential outcomes with 3M targeting $800 million in net savings in FY 2024 and H2 2023 annualizing about $300 mn net savings. Even adjusting for the restructuring, guidance implies FY 2024 underlying operating margin of 20.8%, which is below the 21.0% observed over the last three quarters despite expected volume leverage.
Commenting on the results, UBS analyst Chris Synder said he believes the market focus will be on Q1 and FY 2024 guidance, which both came in below both buyside bogeys, primarily on margins.
While 3M saw its profit margins and cash generation rebound in the second half of 2023 after it slashed thousands of jobs as part of the largest restructuring push in its history, the broader economic environment remains muted for the maker of Post-it notes, touch screen display materials and health care products, CEO Mike Roman said.
“While we have more work to do, our actions are helping us improve our operational performance and create a more competitive 3M,” Roman said during a conference call with analysts. And while slumping electronics markets are stabilizing, industrial demand is mixed, retail spending remains slow and China continues to be soft, Roman said.
“We’re not seeing meaningful changes in the end markets as we start 2024,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg.
Additionally, 3M expects to generate as much as $7.1 billion in adjusted operating cash flow in 2024. Prioritizing cash generation and wider profit margins amid lackluster demand will continue to be key priorities for the company, the CEO said.
“We’re coming off a year where we came out stronger, leaner, more focused,” he said. “We’re going to continue to build on that momentum.”
3M’s forecast “reflects some conservatism given still uncertain end market dynamics and could position the company to deliver on its outlook, supporting stock appreciation over time,” Citi analyst Andrew Kaplowitz said in a client note.
Sales growth will also be affected as the company discontinues some products with less attractive growth and margin prospects, Patolawala said. That and other factors amount to about a percentage point of organic growth, he said.
As Bloomberg reminds us, 3M last year “launched a sweeping restructuring push including thousands of job cuts to become more streamlined as it confronted sluggish sales and made progress tackling huge legal liabilities that have put many investors on the sidelines.”
The company last year agreed to pay as much as $12.5 billion to resolve claims by drinking water utilities that so-called forever chemicals produced by 3M tainted water supplies across much of the US. Other sources of liability from 3M’s legacy producing the substances remain unresolved. 3M also agreed to pay $6 billion to settle hundreds of thousands of lawsuits alleging it supplied defective earplugs to US combat troops.
The cost of funding those payouts have raised questions about whether it will need to dial back its practice of paying out rich dividends compared with other industrial companies.
Shares of the St. Paul, Minnesota-based manufacturing giant had declined 12% over the 12 months ending with Monday’s close, well behind the 21% gain notched by the S&P 500 Index in the same period. That decline nearly doubled as of Tuesday morning, when 3M dropped by more than 10% to $97, the biggest intraday plunge since April 2019.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
Mother Of Daughter Raped And Murdered By Illegal MS-13 Gang Member Sues Biden DHS For $100 Million
MONDAY, JAN 22, 2024 – 08:00 PM
The mother of a 20-year-old autistic woman who was raped and murdered by an illegal immigrant MS-13 gang member in 2022 is suing the federal government for playing “Russian roulette with our lives.”
Kayla Hamilton was raped and strangled to death by the 17-year-old El Salvadorian, who she was living with in a trailer which the suspect, according to Aberdeen, Maryland police. Authorities arrested him in January 2023 based on DNA evidence from the crime scene. He was charged with first-degree murder, as well as rape and robbery, and is currently being held without bail ahead of his June 28 trial.
“For me this not a political issue this a safety issue for everyone living in the United States,” said her mother, Tammy Nobles, during testimony last Thursday in front of the House Homeland Security Committee.
“This could have been anyone’s daughter. I don’t want any other parent to live the nightmare that I am living. I am her voice now and I am going to fight with everything I have to get her story told and bring awareness of the issue at the border,” Nobles continued.
Nobles is seeking $100 million from US government, and has accused the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services of failing her daughter by allowing the unidentified migrant into the country without confirming his identity, neglecting to confirm a verified sponsor, and allowing him to be placed at a holding facility – from which he ran away and ultimately ended up as Hamilton’s roommate.
“Nobody at the border did their job and checked his background,” Nobles said two days later during an interview with NewsNation.
“We’re bringing this lawsuit because we’re tired of being held hostage in our own country. We’re tired of DHS playing Russian roulette with our lives,” said family attorney, Brian Claypool.
Over 300,000 migrants crossed the southern border in December, according to CBP. In 2023, US authorities encountered almost 140,000 unaccompanied minors at the US-Mexico border – of which nearly 10,000 are still in the custody of the DHHS’ Office of Refugee Resettlement.
THE KING REPORT
he King Report January 23, 2024 Issue 7164
Independent View of the News
Chinese stocks tumbled on Monday, but a late manipulation truncated indices losses. China’s CSI 300 tumbled as much as 2.34% and closed -1.56%. The Shanghai Composite sank as much as 3.42% and closed at -2.73%. The Hang Seng Index declined as much as 3.36% and closed at -2.27%. ESHs ignored the Chinese equity damage and soared during the first two hours of Asian trading. After hitting 4887.50 at 20:02 ET, ESHs retreated to 4877.75 at 2:10 ET. ESHs then steadily rallied until they hit a triple top near 4890.75 that developed from 6:28 ET until 8:31 ET. After a 7-handle retreat and regrouping at 9:03 ET, ESHs soared for NYSE opening pump & dump. ESHs hit a daily high of 4898.25 at 9:59 ET. The dump took ESHs to 4875.25 at 11:02 ET. An A-B-C rally pushed ESHs to 4887.50 at 11:54 ET. ESHs then sank to a NYSE session low of 4873.50 at 14:30 ET. Someone then juiced ESHs to 4886.00 at 14:02 ET. ESHs quickly reversed and went inert until the de rigueur late manipulation began near 15:15 ET. Alas, the rally was modest and peaked at 15:35 ET. ESHs and stocks declined into the close. USHs rallied to daily high of 121 5/32 (+1 5/32) at 8:54 ET. They then rolled over into a methodical decline that ended at 13:47 ET. USHs, then went inert for the remainder of the day. This USH action has recurred for the past few months: volatility overnight and into midday US trading; then USHs go inert. Gasoline and WTI Oil rallied sharply on continuing fear about Middle East geopolitics. US Leading Indicators Slump Continues – Longest Losing Streak Since ‘Lehman’ The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in December, dropping 0.1% MoM (slightly better than the -0.3% MoM expectations). That is the smallest MoM decline since March 2022. The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.20 The biggest negative contributor was ISM New Orders at -0.18 This is the 21st straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 22st month of 24) – just barely shorter than the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)… https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-leading-indicators-slump-continues-longest-losing-streak-lehmanAmericans Say Money Isn’t Buying Happiness, Even as Savings Shrink, Finds KeyBank Survey The KeyBank 2024 Financial Mobility Survey, released today, finds that a resounding 66% of Americans would rather work a job they love with a lower paying salary than work a job they hate with a higher paying salary (34%). Simultaneously, a quarter of Americans say they’re spending more and saving less, up from years prior (15% in 2022 and 13% in 2021), and 60% believe we are in or will soon be in a recession—pointing to an environment in which Americans are prioritizing happiness while bracing for economic challenges… https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/americans-say-money-isnt-buying-happiness-even-as-savings-shrink-finds-keybank-survey-302039726.html @Hedgeye: A divergence is starting to develop between the Misery Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data. One major reason? “Of the 2.55 million jobs generated in 2023, 636,000 were in the government sector, accounting for 24.92%. (2024 is an election year). Historically, a government hiring rate above 10% signals an approaching recession.”https://twitter.com/Hedgeye/status/1749449979377152480ADM Plunges Most on Record (23.5%) Amid Accounting Probe, CFO Leave – BBG Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA closed at an all-time high of 38,001.81; the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 4850.43 The DJTA soared 2.21% on JB Hunt’s 4.46% surge due a UBS upgrade; USHs rallied 23/32 Negative aspects of previous session US stocks peaked within 30 minutes of the NYSE opening Gasoline and oil rallied sharply Ambiguous aspects of previous session The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index is at Sept/2021 levels. Is this what the Fed wants? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up;Last Hour: DownPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4854.30Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4868.41; 4844.05 GOP Rep. @RepThomasMassie: Your primary care provider was bribed to get you to take the jab. “Oh, but Congressman Massie, these were incentive payments, not bribes.” As always, follow the money. (Payment schedule at link) https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1748385453760217324?s=20Oreo Cookie Treatment Lowers LDL Cholesterol More Than High-Intensity Statin therapy in a Lean Mass Hyper-Responder on a Ketogenic Diet: A Curious Crossover Experiment (Not a parody!) https://www.mdpi.com/2218-1989/14/1/73?s=02 After the close, UAL reported Q4 EPS of 2.00, 1.69 was consensus, and revenue of $13.63B ($13.54B expected). UAL soared 6% in after-hour trading. The rally halted when UAL forecasted that Q1 EPS would be -0.35 to -0.85 due to 737 groundings; -0.21 was consensus. $162B of Treasury note auctions are scheduled this week: Tuesday (2-year $60.0B), Wednesday (5-year $61.0B) and Thursday (7-year $41.0B). Who will manipulate USHs higher to abet the Treasury? Today – Despite the upward biases of Monday and the commencement of Fang results, ESHs and US equities peaked within 30 minutes of the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. This strongly suggests that US stocks are exhausted after the expiry-related surges on Thursday and Friday. Afternoon trading could be influenced by rumors or leaked inside info on Netflix’s earnings, which are due after the close and signify the commencement of results for Fangs. Expected Economic Data: Jan Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -6 ESHs are -1.50; USHs are -1/32; and Feb AU is -0.40 at 20:20 ET. Expected earnings: JNJ 2.28, PG 1.71, DHI 2.89HAL .80, RTX 1.24, PCAR 2.23, MMM 2.31, LMT 7.29, VZ 1.08NFLX 2.18, TXN 1.47, BKR .48 S&P Index 50-day MA: 4648; 100-day MA: 4497; 150-day MA: 4484; 200-day MA: 4407 DJIA 50-day MA: 36,491; 100-day MA: 35,178; 150-day MA: 35,008; 200-day MA: 34,650 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4532.43 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender is positive; MACD isnegative– a close below 4755.92 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4829.26 triggers a sell signal House Jan. 6 Committee deleted more than 100 encrypted files days before GOP took majority: sources – “It’s obvious that Pelosi’s Select Committee went to great lengths to prevent Americans from seeing certain documents produced in their investigation. It also appears that Bennie Thompson and Liz Cheney intended to obstruct our Subcommittee by failing to preserve critical information and videos as required by House rules,” Loudermilk told Fox News Digital. “The American people deserve to know the full truth, and Speaker Johnson has empowered me to use all tools necessary to recover these documents to get the truth, and I will.”https://trib.al/SRvJDRPTrump says files deleted by Jan 6 committee ‘exonerated me completely’https://t.co/DgjgjmM5URTrump now edges Biden among New York Latinos as migrant crisis rages: pollhttps://trib.al/vBs7twk @TPostMillennial: Trump says that if a Democrat appoints a judge, “they go out of their way to hurt you. If a Republican appoints a judge … they go out of their way to show they’re not biased.” https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1749235438009676127 @greg_price11: The Supreme Court just ruled 5-4 that the Biden admin can remove physical barriers Texas put at their border to stop the invasion. Barrett and Roberts voted with the libs. GOP @RepClayHiggins: Media: “Congressman Higgins, the Supreme Court just ruled in favor of the Biden Admin over the State of Texas, saying that the federal government can remove physical barriers at the border put in place by Texas. What are your thoughts?” Me: “My thoughts are that the feds are staging a civil war, and Texas should stand their ground.” @HansMahncke: It was always obvious that Amy Coney Barrett was a liability (she endorsed Covid tyranny, for instance) and now she’s becoming a Souter. (Another questionable DJT appointment!) Shocking Poll Exposes How Much the Elite Hate Us The survey was conducted by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CUP), a Maryland-based non-profit advocacy group… 77 per cent of elitists who were asked, “To fight climate change, would you favor or oppose the strict rationing of gas, meat and electricity?” said they would favor such a policy. That figure rises even higher to 89 per cent amongst Ivy League graduates… 69 per cent of elitists want an immediate ban on gas stoves, while 81 per cent want gas powered vehicles outlawed… When canvassed on how much freedom the United States should bestow on its citizens, 47 per cent said people had too much freedom compared to 21 per cent who said there was too much control… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shocking-poll-exposes-how-much-elite-hate-us @RNCResearch: Two Navy SEALs were declared dead this weekend following a 10-day search off the coast of Somalia. As of 10:20 a.m. ET, Biden hasn’t said a word about these fallen American heroes — no statement, no tweet, not a thing…Biden ends his only public event of the day without acknowledging the deaths of the two U.S. Navy SEALs… Ex-DJT DNI @RichardGrenell: There’s been a near media blackout of this disaster (Death of two US Seals). The legacy media in the U.S. is unable to criticize Joe Biden’s entire Administration. Pathetic. Biden knows VP Harris ‘not up to the job,’ preferred Gretchen Whitmer as ‘20 running mate… Biden chose Harris days before that year’s virtual Democratic National Convention after promising to select a woman and after pro-Harris lobbying from former President Barack Obama, veteran Washington journalist Charlie Spiering writes in his book “Amateur Hour: Kamala Harris in the White House.”… (She was Obama’s pick to be president, but she dropped out early due to horrid 1st debate.) Those issues included her “bullying” of White House staff and “refusal to be a team player” with the rest of the administration — as well as her “artificial” public presence, her infamous cackle and her near-constant “word salads” that fail to convey any sort of message… The book recounts that Harris was also not the choice of Biden’s wife, Jill, who favored former Obama national security adviser Susan Rice for the role and had fumed to close supporters after a bitter Democratic primary debate that the California senator should “go f—” herself… There’s also “no way” that the Biden-Harris ticket can be reshuffled without the president’s campaign “admitting to a huge mistake,” according to Spiering… There’s plenty of negative chatter behind the scenes, but few dare speak publicly, for fear of being branded a racist or sexist.”https://nypost.com/2024/01/22/news/biden-knows-vp-harris-not-up-to-the-job-preferred-gretchen-whitmer-book/Journalist Who Attacked Top Tennis Player for Refusing COVID Vaccine Dies Suddenly Dickson is noted as being relentless in his criticism of Djokovic, calling the player “arrogant and deplorable” for refusing to submit… Mike Dickson is reported to have collapsed and “died suddenly” at the age of 59 while covering the Australian Open. The cause of death has been kept confidential… https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/journalist-who-attacked-top-tennis-player-refusing-covid-vaccine-dies-suddenly @Mangan150: Physical activity is linked to a lower frequency of suicide attempts in those with mental disorders. by @NTFabiano. If you have a mental illness, get to a gym. Or just take up your bed and walk. https://t.co/rMYhcXDyVe
harveyorganblog.com 
