JAN 24/BLOG FOR TODAY: GOLD WAS DOWN $9.75 TO $2015.20//SILVER WAS UP $0.44 TO $22.79/PLATINUM WAS UP $5.45 TO $907.75 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $20.40 TO $970.00//COMMENTARY TONIGHT BY J. MCGEEVER//CHINA LOWERS ITS INTEREST RATE TRYING TO STAVE OFF ITS SNOWBALL DERIVATIVE MESS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//ISRAEL IN GAZA SURROUNDS KHAN YOUNIS//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES REPORT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//CANADA NEWS ON THE FEDERAL COURT DECISION ON TRUCKER CONVOY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 1 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 3 3 MONTH TO DATE: 5,987
JPMorgan stopped 0/3 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 3 NOTICES FOR 300 OZ or 0.00933 TONNES
total notices so far: 5987 contracts for 598,700 oz (18.622 tonnes)
FOR JANUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 75,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 882 for 4,410,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.44 CENTS AT THE SLV//
MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.373 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 450.067 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 251 CONTRACTS TO 138,617 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.21 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION. WE HAD A FAIR 394 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 394 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY$0.21), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 554 CONTRACT GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A VERY STRONG SIZED 805 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.660 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.660 MILLION OZ
//SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 394 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED XXXCONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 12,677 contracts: OR 63.305 MILLION OZ (792 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 63.305 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24: 63.305 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 251CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 805 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.600 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 6.600 MILLION OZ/
NEW STANDING 6.600 million OZ /// WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN OF 659OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 394CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/RAID// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (394) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1197 CONTRACTS TO 466,023 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – removed 151 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1197 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $3.95 GAININ PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 18.699 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.95 IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 723 OI CONTRACTS (2.249)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 659CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 465,872
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 723 CONTRACTS WITH 1,197 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1920EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 723 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1030CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1920CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1046) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 723 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 18.699 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH SOME SHORT COVERINGS.// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1030CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 70,328 CONTRACTS OR 7,032,800OZ OR 218.74 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4396 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 218.74 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 218.74/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.14% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 218.74 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 251CONTRACTS OI TO 138,617 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 805 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 805 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 805 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 251 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 805 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 554CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.770 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.80 PTS OR 1.80% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 545.89 PTS OR 3.56% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 291.09 OR 0.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.08% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1585 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1534 /Oil UP TO 74.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.09/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1197 CONTRACTS TO 465,872 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.95 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS AT THE HIGHER PRICES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1920 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 1920 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1920CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 723 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1820 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1197 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.95 TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1,030 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (18.699 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 18.699 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $3.95 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF723 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 2.249 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.00933 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 18.699 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.95
WE HAD – REMOVED 151 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 723 CONTRACTS OR 72,300 OZ OR 2.249 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5987 notices 598700 oz 18.622 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i)out of asahi: 1188.75 oz
total withdrawals 1188.75 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
Adjustments; 0 dealer to customer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.
For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 28 contracts having LOST 6 contracts. We had 9 notices served on TUESDAY, so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex .
FEB LOST 19,110 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 147,283
March GAINED 38 contracts to stand at 859.
APRIL GAINED 17,196 CONTRACTS RISING TO 250,925.
We had 3 contracts filed for today representing 300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5987 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (28 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3 x 100 oz per contract equals 601,200 OZ OR 18.699 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN.contract month: No of notices filed so far (5987) x 100 oz + (28) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz) which equals 600,900oz standing OR 18.699 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 18.699 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,917,108,755 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,145,586.407 (284.46 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,771,522.344 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,819,248 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 243,21 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 24/INITIAL
//2024// THE JAN 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
940,184.260 oz
ASAHI CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
4975.119 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
238 contracts (1,190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
882 Contracts (4,410,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware: 4975.119 oz
total customer deposits 4975.119 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.341 million oz/276.785 million or 47.46%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of ASAHI 547,251.220 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 392,933.040 oz
total withdrawal: 940,184.260 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 41.940 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276.785 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 238 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 15 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 15 NOTICES SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX
FEB LOST 22 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 753
MARCH LOST 873 CONTRACTS TO 105,088
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 77,235//good/raid
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 53,109 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 882 x 5,000 oz = 4,410,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (238) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JAN/2024 contract month: 882 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (238) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 5.600 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.660 million oz/
New total standing: 6.600 million oz.
There are 41.940 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
DEC19/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC18/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 173 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.69 TONNES
DEC14/WITH GOLD UP $47.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A DEPOSIT OF 2.42 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.96 TONNES
DEC13/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,65 TONNES
DEC12/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:. /A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.54 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 858.93 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.747 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.794 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.646 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.00000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 10.326 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.470 MILLION OZ
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 594,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.144 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 450.067 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: ‘Bidenomics’ Has Been A “Disaster” For The US Economy
Peter was recently featured on Real America hosted by Dan Ball.
It’s no secret that the government has been spending more than it collects, and there are indications that the Biden administration is addressing this issue.
Alarming news surfaced in a media release directly from President Joe Biden, suggesting the potential for tax increases to further finance deficits resulting from benefit payouts.
Mr. Ball opened the discussion by asking Peter’s thoughts on this potential new Biden tax hike.
Peter promptly addressed the shortcomings in government benefits, specifically focusing on the Social Security Trust Funds. This was a subject he passionately discussed in a recent podcast episode, Episode 941.
He mentioned the challenges faced by the Social Security Trust Fund, and issued a warning about the worsening budget deficits, projecting the trust fund’s depletion by 2034.
Moreover, Peter emphasized the ongoing practice of the Social Security trust funds of borrowing through the sale of treasuries to cover deficits. The need for the Social Security funds to sell Treasuries underscores the escalating debt problem.
Peter shifts the conversation to a higher level, stating that the entire Bidenomics has been a “disaster” for the US economy.
Peter pointed to the dismal Empire State survey and consistently poor Philadelphia Fed numbers that have persisted over the past few months, extending through the better part of the last two years!
“Maybe the Biden administration is hoping that the old adage is true, that if you repeat a lie often enough, it’ll be believed. Because yeah, we have a disaster of an economy, even by the government’s own measures; manufacturing has been in a recession for almost two years. How do you have a booming economy when manufacturing is in a recession?”
Peter also addressed the abysmal personal finance numbers of the American public. In fact, the average household owed a staggering and unsustainable $103,358 last year, with Q2 consumer debt totaling $16.84 trillion nationally, according to Experian.
“Household debt is at an all-time record high and savings at an all-time low and a record number of people are having to work two or three jobs just to put food on the table or pay the rent. What kind of economic boom is that? And if this is a boom, just imagine the next bust!”
Peter criticizes Biden’s comments about “investing” in the economy, emphasizing that only the free market can deploy capital correctly and generate services, yield, and productive external benefits that uplift society as a whole.
“He [Biden] mentioned that the government is investing in the economy, investing in America. The government doesn’t invest in anything. It doesn’t have any money. I mean, it can print money, but that just creates inflation. All it does is tax the people that make the investments and he takes that money away, diminishing investment. And then they spend it and push up prices. That’s all they do. It’s the free market that invests and grows the economy. All the government does is stifle that growth.”
Mr. Ball concludes by asking about Biden canceling another $5 billion in student loan debt and how it would impact the economy.
Peter aptly points out that whenever a politician talks about canceling student loan debt, they never discuss who foots the bill. It’s always the taxpayer or the USD dollar owner who bears the brunt of the burden via inflation.
“Somebody has to pay for that because now the students have more money. Well, that means everybody else has less money and prices are going to go up as a result of the inflation that is created every time you forgive student loans.”
END
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
JOHN RUBINO
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Jamie McGeever: Foreign central banks think twice on U.S. Treasuries
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-01-23 18:50 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jamie McGeever Reuters Tuesday, January 23, 2024
If foreign investors en masse are gorging on U.S. Treasuries, central banks may be beginning to lose their appetite.
Official U.S. flows data show that overseas private-sector investors — banks, asset managers, insurance funds, pension funds, retail investors — are loading up on Treasuries while the official sector’s holdings are flat-lining at best.
As long as this active or de facto retreat from central banks is more of a whimper than a bang, the $26 trillion U.S. government bond market should be relatively unaffected. One group of buyers is simply replacing another.
But it may come with a price — a rising “term premium.” That’s the amorphous amount of compensation investors demand for buying long-dated bonds instead of rolling over bills. It is the premium for unquantifiable risks in the future beyond current assumptions on the long-term path of inflation or policy rates.
Price-sensitive buyers with more of an eye on generating returns may not always be as reliable as price-insensitive buyers perhaps more concerned with capital preservation, liquidity, and cautious reserve management goals.
Foreign central banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve were the two price-insensitive buyers and holders of Treasuries for many years, and their huge demand helped explain why term premium went negative even as U.S. borrowing rocketed.
But both are now backing away — the Fed is reducing its balance sheet and foreign central banks are no longer buying in as large size. Indeed, there are signs they are actively selling. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSWEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1585
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1534
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.80 PTS OR 1.80%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 545.89 PTS OR 3.56%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 291.09 PTS OR 0.80%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.92 EURO RISES TO 1.0894 UP 38 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.703 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.27/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3205***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.865** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.230…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.3141
3j Gold at $2032.85 silver at: 22.76 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 30 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.40//
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,27// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.669% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8642 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9416 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.106 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.349 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.316 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.23…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 5 BASIS PTS AT 4.037
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Set For 4th Straight Record High On Blowout Netflix, ASML Earnings And China RRR Cut
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 08:12 AM
After a three-peat of S&P records, stocks were set for 4th all time high as they extended overnight gains after an onslaught of positive earnings from technology companies reinforced the picture of a broadly robust corporate sector, while a “sudden” RRR cut by Beijing sparked hope that the Chinese rout may soon be over. S&P futures rose 0.5%, at 7:50am while Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.7%, lifted by a 10% surge in Netflix following blockbuster earnings as well as a rally across chipmakers and other tech firms. Tesla and IBM are due to report later. 10Y yields dropped 2bps to 4.11% while the dollar slid amid a strong rally in the yen which strengthened 0.6% as investors decided Japanese policymakers are gearing up to scrap negative interest rates soon after all. Swaps markets have ramped up bets on a 25 basis-point rate hike in April, following the Bank of Japan meeting on Tuesday.
In premarket trading, Netflix rallied as much as 11% after the firm said yesterday it signed up 13.1 million customers in the final three months of 2023, the streaming giant’s best quarter of growth since viewers were stuck at home in the early days of the pandemic. Netflix earnings were so strong they unleashed a barrage of upgrades by the trend-following momentum penguins:
Evercore Raises target price to $600 from $500
KeyBanc Raises target price to $580 from $545
Barclays Raises target price to $475 from $375
Piper Sandler Raises target price to $550 from $475
Pivotal Research Raises target price to $700 from $600
Guggenheim Raises target price to $600 from $500
Goldman Sachs Raises target price to $565 from $500
Canaccord Genuity Raises target price to $625 from $575
Morgan Stanley Raises target price to $600 from $550
Redburn Raises target price to $610 from $550
UBS Raises target price to $570 from $560
Baird Raises target price to $600 from $500
Bernstein Raises target price to $490 from $390
Wells Fargo Raises target price to $650 from $460
BofA Securities Raises target price to $650 from $585
JPMorgan Raises target price to $610 from $510
BMO Capital Raises target price to $638 from $566
Rosenblatt Raises target price to $554 from $404
“We’re in somewhat of a sweet spot at the moment for equities,” said Francois Rimeu, a strategist at La Francaise Asset Management in Paris. “US economic newsflow is good, growth is flat in Europe, but it’s no drama and nobody believes in the resurgence of inflationary pressures.” He added that, “earnings in US tech and artificial intelligence are also holding up, which itself is backing the broader market.”
Meanwhile, as reported earlier, market sentiment was also boosted from China’s plan to stimulate its economy by cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks. The move should allow Chinese banks to step up lending and their purchases of government bonds. European commodities shares rallied and the Hang Seng Index added 3.6%.
The spotlight turns now to policy meetings at the Bank of Canada later in the day and the European Central Bank on Thursday. Both are expected to keep policy rates on hold, but could signal an approximate timing for the first rate cut.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index climbed 1%, propelled by a rally in ASML Holding NV, Europe’s most valuable technology company, after orders more than tripled; with basic resource and real estate names also outperforming. ASML surged 7% after saying orders more than tripled last quarter from the previous three months as demand for its most-sophisticated machines soared (primarily out of China which scrambled to beat new US-led chip import sanctions). Meanwhile SAP, Europe’s biggest software maker, is up 6% after it unveiled a restructuring plan that will affect about 8,000 jobs and an increased focus on artificial intelligence, moves that it said would help boost operating profit to roughly €10 billion next year.
Shares in ASML soar as much as 7.5% in Amsterdam to the highest levels in more than two years, after the chip equipment maker reported a record quarterly order intake, a sign of potential rebound in demand for advanced chipmaking gear. The surge in orders was underpinned by a comeback in extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, giving confidence for the Dutch firm’s bullish 2025 goals, according to analysts.
Shares in SAP jump as much as 8.2% to a record high after the German software firm raised 2025 free cash flow guidance, following a restructuring program that will impact 8,000 jobs. Current cloud backlog — an indicator of cloud revenue to be booked within next 12 months — saw accelerating growth in 4Q, signaling robust demand for its cloud-based software.
Shares in Siemens Energy soar as much as 13%, to the highest level since August, after the German renewable delivered a beat across the board in the first quarter. Strong free cashflow particularly impressed analysts, with Citi saying this reduces the threat that it will need to raise capital.
Shares in EasyJet rise as much as 5.9% to the highest price since May 2022 after releasing a trading update for the first quarter. Analysts expect the budget airline to benefit from supply constraints in European short-haul flights and strong pricing.
Shares in Barry Callebaut gain as much as 2.5%, after the Swiss chocolate maker confirmed its guidance, which Vontobel sees as reassuring. The firm posted better volumes than expected, analysts say.
Shares in Puma sink as much as 8.4%, sinking to the lowest level since October 2018, after the sportswear brand reported preliminary fourth-quarter sales that missed analyst estimates.
Shares in Abrdn drop as much as 3.8% to hit a seven-week low after assets under management fell short of expectations. It outlined plans to save £150 million in incremental savings, partly through job cuts, in an effort to improve efficiency. Citi says the new savings goal should lift expectations on the asset manager, but warned they could also make it more difficult for Abrdn to close the investment performance gap to its peers.
Shares in Alstom fall as much as 8% and were briefly halted for volatility as investors focused on the French train manufacturer’s plans to fix its balance sheet rather than third-quarter orders which beat expectations.
Shares in Stellantis decline as much as 1.2% as HSBC says it’s “time for a pause” and downgrades the carmaker to hold from buy, citing 2024 uncertainty.
Shares in Wetherspoon drop as much as 3.1%, extending declines to a second straight session, after a trading update. Goodbody said the company had a strong Christmas period, but the update confirmed a “softer” January.
Shares in Infineon, STMicro fall after US peer Texas Instruments delivered a disappointing quarterly forecast, signaling a persistent slump in demand for industrial and automotive electronic components.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 5.7% to 1233.20 before paring losses. The yen strengthened against the dollar as Japan’s 10- and 20-year sovereign yields jumped more than 10 basis points each before paring some of those gains. Ueda on Tuesday said he will consider ending negative rates if the price goal comes into view. Most other currencies traded in a narrow range as traders waited for the European Central Bank’s rate decision Thursday to gauge its policy outlook.
“The yen is drawing support from rising domestic yields and growing speculation the Bank of Japan will tweak its policy in coming months,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Tokyo. “However, the dollar is also strong amid a resilient economy, which eases speculation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed. That may keep the dollar-yen in a relatively narrow range”
The pound extended gain after the UK PMI data. It’s now only behind the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc in the G-10 scoreboard for the day. In the data, the services number in particular looked solid, beating analyst forecast with an expansionary reading of 53.8.
Euro-area bond yields slipped after data showed business activity contracted in January for the eighth month. Traders are now pricing in 136 basis points worth of interest-rate cuts by year-end, eight basis points more than on Tuesday. In the UK, inflation concerns were revived by a report showing private sector firms had the sharpest jump in costs in five months, partly due to disruptions from shipping delays in the Red Sea. British 10-year gilt yields rose above 4% for the first time since mid-December and the pound added 0.5%.
In the US, treasuries were higher into early US session with US 10-year yields around 4.11%, richer by 2bp on the day with bunds outperforming by 3bp in the sector and gilts lagging by around 5bp. A large block trade in 10-year note futures during London morning reinforced bund-led gains after weak German services PMI, while gilts were hit after strong UK manufacturing PMI. During Asia session, spillover to Treasuries was limited as JGBs sold off on mounting sentiment that Bank of Japan will soon take a hawkish turn.
The treasury auction cycle continues with $61b 5-year notes at 1pm; Tuesday’s 2-year note sale stopped on the screws; cycle concludes Thursday with $41b 7-year notes. WI 5-year yield around 4.005% is ~20.5bp cheaper than December’s, which stopped through by 1.4bp.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.7% to trade near $74.90. Bitcoin rises 2.2% and is back above $40,000.
Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be announcing their latest policy decision. And earnings releases include Tesla, IBM and AT&T.
Market Wrap
S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,920
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 475.23
MXAP up 0.8% to 165.83
MXAPJ up 1.2% to 504.61
Nikkei down 0.8% to 36,226.48
Topix down 0.5% to 2,529.22
Hang Seng Index up 3.6% to 15,899.87
Shanghai Composite up 1.8% to 2,820.77
Sensex up 0.9% to 70,975.48
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,519.19
Kospi down 0.4% to 2,469.69
German 10Y yield down 2.5bps at 2.33%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.0898
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $79.91/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,032.81
US Dollar Index down 0.50% to 103.10
Top Overnight News
China’s PBOC will lower the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) as of 2/5 by 50bp, a move that will unleash ~$140B of incremental long-term liquidity, and said FOMC rate cuts this year will give China more flexibility to ease policy further. FT
China’s securities regulators have asked some hedge fund managers to restrict short selling in its stock index futures market, two sources said, as authorities seek to stabilize sinking stocks. RTRS
Chinese authorities are tightening limits on capital outflows by restricting access to funds that invest in offshore securities as the country battles a brutal market rout. About a third of Chinese funds that invest in foreign securities under a scheme that bypasses strict capital controls have announced in stock exchange notices they have suspended or capped sales to retail investors “to maintain stable operations and protect investors’ interests”. FT
Europe’s flash PMIs are mixed for Jan, with an uptick in manufacturing (to 46.6 vs. 44.4 in Dec and the Street 44.7) and a modest pullback in services (to 48.4 vs. 48.8 in Dec and the Street 49). S&P
Israel and Hamas have made some progress toward agreement on a 30-day ceasefire in Gaza when Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners would be released, sources told Reuters, as Israel pressed ahead with its assault on southern Gaza’s main city. RTRS
NFLX +11% pre mkt after reported extremely strong upside on Q4 subs, with paid net adds of 13.1M, blowing away the Street consensus forecast of 8.9M. Ads membership spiked nearly 70% Q/Q (ads plan now accounts for ~40% of all Netflix sign-ups in the markets where its offered). RTRS
Tesla plans a new mass-market EV with production starting in mid-2025, Reuters reported. Its earnings are due postmarket. A senior exec at BYD said that Elon Musk’s firm will face “serious challenges” in 2024 from its rival. BBG
Biden senior advisors will depart the White House and join his reelection campaign as the focus pivots to Nov and the likely battle against Trump. WaPo
Apple is quietly increasing its capabilities in artificial intelligence, making a series of acquisitions, staff hires and hardware updates that are designed to bring AI to its next generation of iPhones. FT
As expected, former President Trump won the New Hampshire primary tonight (Jan. 23) by a significant margin. The lack of a meaningful surprise in New Hampshire further reduces the odds of a momentum-driven shift, including in South Carolina—the next major nomination contest (Feb. 24), where recent polling averages show Trump with around 52% vs. Haley with 22%. GIR
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from the US with participants digesting earnings, recent hawkish BoJ comments and Chinese support pledges ahead of this week’s risk events. ASX 200 lacked direction as gains in the commodity-related sectors were offset by losses in financials, tech and defensives. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the upside in Japanese yields and a more hawkish tone from BoJ Governor Ueda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed with outperformance in Hong Kong following the slew of recent support pledges by Chinese authorities, while the mainland was choppy and briefly wiped out its earlier gains after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through OMOs, but then staged a mild comeback later in the session.
Top Asian News
PBoC Governor says will use various policy tools to keep liquidity reasonably ample, will improve credit structure, and step up support for private firms and small firms; Will keep CNY exchange rate basically stable.
PBoC says it will cut its RRR by 0.5ppts from Feb 5th and will continue to use liquidity injection tools; PBoC Governor says RRR levels are still relatively high; RRR cut is to release CNY 1tln into the economy
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+1.3%) started the session on a very strong footing, after pre-market news that China is to cut its RRR by 0.5ppts; with additional help from index heavyweights SAP (+7.2%) and ASML (+6.1%) post-earnings. European sectors have a strong positive tilt; Tech takes the top spot after strong earnings from SAP and ASML, whilst Basic Resources benefit from RRR cuts, helping to lift metals prices. US equity futures are firmer across the board, albeit with gains of a lesser magnitude than their European counterparts.
Top European News
Hedge fund Qube reportedly builds a USD 1bln short bet against German stocks, according to Bloomberg; shorts include Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) and Deutsche Bank (DBK GY)
FX
A soft session for the DXY thus far amid the broader risk appetite in the market, a pullback in bond yields, the post-PMI EUR strength, and the firmer JPY due to continued tailwinds from the BoJ yesterday.
EUR is firmer in the aftermath of the flash PMIs which were ultimately mixed whilst the commentary suggested the data aligns with the sentiment of the ECB hawks.
The Pound is bolstered by the UK Flash PMI metrics which topped expectations across the board, whilst the commentary suggested that the strong data may “deter” the BoE from cutting rates as early as expected.
DXY down to a test of 103.00, but holding, while EUR/USD eclipsed 1.09 and GBP/USD bested 1.2750.
Yen is the G10 outperformer amid a continuation of the hawkish tailwinds from yesterday’s BoJ press conference; USD/JPY pivoting 147.50.
Antipodeans hold an upward bias amid the broader market risk tone coupled with a PBoC RRR cut aimed at releasing liquidity to bolster the Chinese economy.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1053 vs exp. 7.1825 (prev. 7.1117).
Fixed Income
USTs are bid, having printed its own 111-17+ peak on the German PMI data. Attention turns to the region’s own PMIs later, alongside the next leg of the week’s supply, after a well-received 2yr outing, supported by indirect demand.
Bunds were initially steady around 134.00 before being bolstered by the region’s Flash PMIs; on the release a 134.42 peak printed just shy of the round 134.50 and yesterday’s best at 134.55.
Gilts were initially moving in tandem with EGBs throughout the morning. After UK PMI’s printed firmer across the board and noted a rise in factory costs, a hawkish move occurred with Gilts now in the red and sliding to a 98.30 trough, pressured further on the 2028 DMO outing.
WTI and Brent are both firmer as a function of broader risk appetite (supported by the PBoC RRR cut coupled with positive stock earnings), with a softer Dollar also lending a helping hand; WTI & Brent Mar’24 tested/bested USD 75.00/bbl and USD 80.00/bbl respectively.
Precious metals are mixed with gold flat intraday but spot silver gaining despite the lack of an obvious catalyst; XAU remains within yesterday’s USD 2,019.67-2,037.97/oz range.
Base metals are higher across the board and bolstered by the PBoC’s RRR cut but unleashes some CNY 1tln into the world’s second-largest economy.
Magnitude 5.3 earthquake strikes Antofagasta, in the Chile region, according to EMSC; GFZ says magnitude 5.24 strikes Northern Chile
Earnings
Netflix Inc (NFLX) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 2.11 (exp. 2.22), Revenue 8.83bln (exp. 8.71bln), Streaming paid net change +13.12mln (exp. +8.91mln). Sees Q1 paid net additions to be down sequentially but to be up from Q1 23 net paid additions of 1.8mln. Sees Q1 EPS USD 4.49 (exp. 4.09). Sees Q1 revenue USD 9.24bln (exp. 9.28bln). FY24 forecasts. Sees 2024 double-digit revenue growth ex-FX. Sees free cash flow of about USD 6bln (exp. 6.03bln). Sees operating margin 24% (exp. 22.7%). “In FY24, we expect a high single-digit percentage year over year increase in content amortization”. Continues to expect 2024 cash spend on content of up to USD 17bln. (Netflix IR) Shares rose 8.7% after-hours on strong net additions with soft EPS offset by strong Q1 EPS guidance. Shares +10.1% in pre-market trade.
ASML (ASML NA) – Q4 (EUR) Revenue 7.237bln (exp. 6.906bln). Bookings 9.19bln (exp. 3.57bln). Net Income 2.048bln (exp. 1.868bln); Sees Q1 net sales between 5-5.5bln (exp. 6.23bln); “there are some positive signs” on semiconductor market recovery. OTHER METRICS: Gross Margin 51.4% (exp. 50.8%). 2023 dividend +5.2% Y/Y to EUR 6.10/shr. “In the fourth quarter, we did not purchase any shares under the current 2022-2025 share buyback program.” GUIDANCE: Sees 2024 net sales to be similar to 2023 “in spite of the positive signs”. Sees Q1 net sales between 5-5.5bln (exp. 6.23bln). Sees Q1 gross margin between 48-49%. Sees R&D costs of around EUR 1.070bln and SG&A costs of around EUR 300mln. COMMENTARY: “Although our customers are still not certain about the shape of the semiconductor market recovery this year, there are some positive signs.” “Industry end-market inventory levels continue to improve and litho tool utilization levels are beginning to show improvement.” “Our strong order intake in the fourth quarter clearly supports future demand.” (ASML) CFO says “as the impact of export regulations will have on the 2024 sales, we believe that will be somewhere between 10% to 15% of the China system sales in 2023.” Shares currently higher by around 6.5% in Europe / as such US peers are benefitting in the pre-market: AMD +2.3%, NVDA +1.1%
SAP (SAP GY) – FY23 (EUR): Revenue 31.207bln (exp. 31.225bln), Non-IFRS Basic EPS 5.01 (exp. 5.20). Non-IFRS Operating profit 8.721bln (exp. 8.523bln). Cloud revenue up +20% Y/Y. Cloud revenue backlog +25% Y/Y. FCF -4% Y/Y. Q4 Revenue 8.47bln (exp. 8.35bln). Q4 Operating profit 2.51bln (exp. 2.53bln). GUIDANCE: Co. does not provide Q1 revenue guidance. Co. said the 2024 outlook anticipates accelerating cloud revenue growth. Co. sees FY24 cloud revenue between EUR 17-17.3bln (exp. 17.207bln). Sees FY24 cloud and software revenue 29.0-29.5bln (exp. 29.477bln). SAP adjusted FY25 guidance and now sees FY 25 Free cash flow of approximately EUR 8.0bln (prev. EUR 7.5bln). Co. reaffirms FY25 cloud revenue and total revenue guidance. (SAP) Separately, Co. plans a restructuring that will affect some 8,000 jobs as the Co. focuses on AI. (Newswires) Shares are currently +5.5% in European trade / as such US peers such benefitting in the pre-market: Cloudflare +2.6%, Snowflake +3.5%
Geopolitics
A one-month Gaza truce is the focus of intensive mediation efforts by Qatar, US and Egypt, according to Reuters citing sources. It was later reported that Hamas is open to releasing some Israeli hostages for a pause in the fighting, according to mediators cited by WSJ.
US and UK, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Netherlands and New Zealand, conducted additional strikes against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, according to a UK government statement. Furthermore, a US official also announced that the US carried out a new strike against two Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen.
White House National Security Adviser Sullivan spoke with Sweden’s Landerholm about commitment to supporting Ukraine, while they also discussed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gaza conflict.
US is deeply concerned regarding arrests of Democratic opposition in Venezuela, according to the State Department.
North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea, according to the South Korean military.
Reports of imminent agreement with Hamas on detainees are untrue, according to Sky News Arabia citing IDF radio
US event calendar
07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 10.4%
09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.0, prior 50.9
09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.5, prior 51.4
09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.6, prior 47.9
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Starting with the US political news overnight, former President Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary with 54.6.% of the vote, ahead of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on 43.6% (with 87% of vote counted as I type). While Trump’s winning gap is a little narrower than had been suggested by recent opinion polls, the result puts him in a historically strong position to win the Republican nomination. In the history of modern primaries, whenever a Republican has won both Iowa and New Hampshire, as Trump now has, they’ve always gone on to secure the nomination. Last night Haley suggested that her campaign would continue into the South Carolina primary on February 24 (which is preceded by the Nevada Caucus on February 8). The FiveThirtyEight polling average of South Carolina gives Trump a more than two-to-one lead over Haley, so she has a large deficit to overcome in her home state.
When it came to markets, yesterday saw a relatively quiet session as both the S&P 500 and 10yr Treasuries saw their narrowest trading ranges of the year so far. In the end, risk assets managed to maintain their recent advance, with the S&P 500 posting its fourth consecutive gain (+0.29%) to another all-time high, whilst Euro HY spreads reached their tightest level in nearly two years. On the other hand, sovereign bonds lost ground both in the US and Europe, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +2.4bps to 4.13% and the 10yr bund yield (+6.1bps to 2.35%) rising to its highest since early December.
The focus on rates is likely to heat up over the coming week, since the Bank of Canada are deciding on policy today, followed by the ECB tomorrow, and then the Fed in a week’s time. Doubts persist about the chances of a March rate cut from the big central banks, but these did tick up slightly yesterday. For the Fed, the chance of a cut by March fell to just 38% at the intraday low yesterday, but this rose to 49% at the close, with most of this rise appearing to follow some dovish interview comments by former St Louis Fed President Bullard. When it comes to 2024 as a whole, 137bps of cuts are now priced in by the December meeting, up from the near-two-month low of 133bps on Monday. So that’s still a sizeable amount of cuts expected this year, particularly in a non-recession scenario, but a notable shift back since the intraday peak on January 12, when 170bps of cuts were priced in for 2024.
With the slight increase in pricing of cuts, the 2yr Treasury yield was down -2.1bps yesterday. But these short-end moves did not prevent a broader sovereign bond sell off on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 30yr Treasury yield up +4.3bps to 4.36%. The bond sell-off was stronger in Europe, as yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+6.4bps) and BTPs (+7.8bps) all moved higher, whilst those on 10yr gilts (+8.2bps) saw the biggest increase.
For equities, the overall picture was one of relative stability. The S&P 500 saw its narrowest trading range of 2024 so far, advancing again (+0.29%) to a new all-time high, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.28%) saw a small decline. There were some strong performances from those with earnings announcements, including Verizon (+6.70%), United Airlines (+5.31%) and aerospace/defence manufacturer RTX (+5.33%). There were also a few laggards, including homebuilder DR Horton (-9.24%), whose results weighed on the broader homebuilder segment. Tech stocks outperformed, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.61%) also reaching a new all-time high. That means the YTD picture for 2024 is looking increasingly similar to 2023 so far, since the Magnificent 7 are already up +4.07% since the start of the year, whereas the equal-weighted S&P 500 is lagging behind with a -0.71% decline. So the rally continues to be a relatively narrow one.
After market close, we saw a strong set of Q4 results reported by Netflix, which saw its highest quarterly subscriber growth since the early phase of the pandemic. Netflix shares were up nearly +9% in extended trading. By contrast, chipmaker Texas Instruments lost ground in after-hours trading after announcing lower-than-expected sales and profit guidance for Q1. Overnight, S&P 500 (+0.22%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.36%) futures are higher.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.90%) leading gains across the region for a second consecutive day on a tech-fuelled rally led by Alibaba (+6%) after reports indicated that its founder Jack Ma bought $50 million of its shares listed in Hong Kong through the fourth quarter. In mainland China markets are lower though with the Shanghai Composite (-0.15%) and CSI (-0.25%) lower again.
The Nikkei (-0.9%) is trading in negative territory extending its previous session losses following yesterday’s hawkish tilt from the BOJ Governor as he signalled more progress towards an eventful end to Japan’s negative rate policy. 10yr JGB yields are up +5.5bps.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s December exports (+9.8% y/y) beat expectations for a +9.2% increase, against a -0.2% contraction previously, with its trade balance unexpectedly turning in a $62.1 billion surplus compared with a $122.6 billion deficit expected by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Japanese flash PMIs were stronger with services at 52.7 and up from 51.5 last month, helping to lift the composite a point. Elsewhere, Australia’s factory activity expanded for the first time in 11 months as the manufacturing PMI for January rose to 50.3, up from December’s level of 47.6. Meanwhile, service sector activity contracted at a slower pace, with the services PMI at 47.9 compared with December’s 47.1.
Looking forward, one of the main highlights today will be the rest of the flash PMIs from the US and Europe, which will give us an initial indication of how the major economies are performing in 2024. Over in Europe, yesterday saw some encouraging signs from the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS). Aggregate BLS conditions for Q4 recovered to their least negative level since the start of the ECB’s hiking cycle in summer 2022, suggesting that the peak drag from ECB tightening may be behind us. During 2023 the BLS consistently pointed to downside risks for growth, but its latest expectations are consistent with euro area PMIs moving back towards the 50 level, so an upside signal compared to the 47.6 composite print last month. See our European economists’ full reaction to the BLS, including how it could influence ECB thinking, here. Otherwise today, the European Commission are set to announce an economic security package, which our research colleagues in Frankfurt have published a chartbook about (link here).
Finally, the other data yesterday leant on the negative side, with the European Commission’s consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly falling back in January. According to the preliminary reading, consumer confidence was down to -16.1 (vs. -14.3 expected), which reverses the last two months of gains. Separately, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index was down to -15 in January (vs. -8 expected), which is the lowest it’s been since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be announcing their latest policy decision. And earnings releases include Tesla, IBM and AT&T.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
NFLX +8.7% after-hours; European equity futures point to a higher open – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 01:24 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from the US with participants digesting earnings, recent hawkish BoJ comments and Chinese support pledges.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.8% after the cash market closed down 0.3% on Tuesday.
DXY trades in tight parameters around 103.50, JPY leads G10 FX, EUR/USD has slipped further onto a 1.08 handle.
Looking ahead, highlights include French, German, EZ, UK & US PMIs, BoC Policy Announcement, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from SAP, ASML, Abrdn, AT&T, Tesla & IBM.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were mixed in which the SPX and NDX gradually gained throughout the US session, while the DJIA and RUT lagged as markets digested earnings ahead of upcoming risk events, while Chinese stocks performed well on a slew of support measures.
SPX +0.29% at 4,864, NDX +0.43% at 17,404, DJIA -0.25% at 37,905, RUT -0.36% at 1,976.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said there are still moving pieces, but he hopes to finalise the supplemental funding deal as soon as possible.
Donald Trump was declared the winner of the Republican New Hampshire primary although Nikki Haley said she would continue to continue fighting on, while Edison Research noted that Trump had 54.2% and Haley had 43.7% with 75% of estimated votes in.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from the US with participants digesting earnings, recent hawkish BoJ comments and Chinese support pledges ahead of this week’s risk events.
ASX 200 lacked direction as gains in the commodity-related sectors were offset by losses in financials, tech and defensives.
Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the upside in Japanese yields and a more hawkish tone from BoJ Governor Ueda.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed with outperformance in Hong Kong following the slew of recent support pledges by Chinese authorities, while the mainland was choppy and briefly wiped out its earlier gains after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity through OMOs, but then staged a mild comeback later in the session.
US equity futures (ES +0.3%) remained afloat heading deeper into earnings season and after mixed results from Netflix and Texas Instruments.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.8% after the cash market closed down 0.3% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY traded steadily within a tight range of between 103.41-103.54 amid a lack of fresh catalysts stateside.
EUR/USD was off the prior day’s worst levels but struggled for direction after the recent slide from 1.0900.
GBP/USD retested the 1.2700 level to the upside albeit with trade quiet ahead of incoming PMI data.
USD/JPY trickled below the 148.00 level after the hawkish-leaning BoJ comments and strong trade data.
Antipodeans were choppy amid the mixed risk appetite and after New Zealand CPI data matched estimates.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1053 vs exp. 7.1825 (prev. 7.1117).
SNB Chair Jordan expects some inflationary pressure from rents, while he added that nominal appreciation of the Franc has lowered inflation and is hurting Swiss companies, according to Bloomberg.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures recovered some lost ground after the recent bear steepening and a relatively in-line 2yr auction.
Bund futures bounced off the prior day’s trough and reclaimed the 134.00 level despite looming German supply.
10yr JGB futures extended on losses as the 10yr JGB yield climbed by as much as 10bps following the more hawkish-leaning comments by BoJ Governor Ueda and after Japanese trade data mostly beat expectations.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were contained following yesterday’s choppy performance and mixed private sector inventory data.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.7mln (exp. -2.2mln), Gasoline +7.2mln (exp. +2.3mln), Distillates -0.2mln (exp. +0.3mln), Cushing -2mln.
Spot gold traded rangebound amid an uneventful dollar and the absence of any major drivers.
Copper futures were steady and eked slight gains on the back of Chinese stimulus hopes.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin remained subdued amid the cautious mood and after slipping back beneath the USD 40,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China is to step up in attracting foreign firms and will not change its stance on protecting the legal rights of foreign companies, according to a minister cited by Reuters.
CSRC Vice Chairman said will ramp up efforts to strengthen investor protection and create a fair, just, and open market order and legal environment to ensure that investors truly feel the fairness and justice of the market, according to Global Times.
Chinese regulators asked some hedge funds to restrict short selling in the stock index futures market, according to sources.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Dec) 62.1B vs. Exp. -122.1B (Prev. -780.4B)
Japanese Exports YY (Dec) 9.8% vs. Exp. 9.1% (Prev. -0.2%)
Japanese Imports YY (Dec) -6.8% vs. Exp. -5.3% (Prev. -11.9%)
Japanese Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan) 48.0 (Prev. 47.9)
Japanese Services PMI Flash SA (Jan) 52.7 (Prev. 51.5)
Australian Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan) 50.3 (Prev. 47.6)
Australian Services PMI Flash (Jan) 47.9 (Prev. 47.1)
New Zealand CPI QQ (Q4) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.8%)
New Zealand CPI YY (Q4) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 5.6%)
RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index (Q4) 4.5% (Prev. 5.2%)
GEOPOLITICS
A one-month Gaza truce is the focus of intensive mediation efforts by Qatar, US and Egypt, according to Reuters citing sources. It was later reported that Hamas is open to releasing some Israeli hostages for a pause in the fighting, according to mediators cited by WSJ.
Pentagon was aware of reports on a new attack on the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq, but couldn’t confirm it at the time, while it was later reported that the US military conducted strikes on Iran-backed militant facilities in western Iraq.
US and UK, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Netherlands and New Zealand, conducted additional strikes against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, according to a UK government statement. Furthermore, a US official also announced that the US carried out a new strike against two Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen.
White House National Security Adviser Sullivan spoke with Sweden’s Landerholm about commitment to supporting Ukraine, while they also discussed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gaza conflict.
US is deeply concerned regarding arrests of Democratic opposition in Venezuela, according to the State Department.
North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea, according to the South Korean military.
UK/EU
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Senior Tory MP and former cabinet minister Simon Clarke called on PM Sunak to stand down and warned that the party faces an electoral “massacre” under Sunak’s leadership, according to Sky News.
German Finance Minister Lindner said Germany needs an “economic turnaround” this year and that it will not work with more debt.
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.80 PTS OR 1.80% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 545.89 PTS OR 3.56% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 291.09 OR 0.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.08% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1585 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1534 /Oil UP TO 74.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.09/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
China unexpectedly cuts its key RR ratio in a desperate attempt to stave off snowball derivative margin calls
(zerohedge)
China “Unexpectedly” Cuts Required Reserve Ratio In Desperate Bid To Contain Market Collapse
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 07:46 AM
In a move many said was very long overdue, this morning China which has paradoxically waited too long until deflation reigns across the country, said it will cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 50bps within two weeks and hinted at more support measures to come, which while coming largely in time with the easing ahead of the lunar new year was an unusually early disclosure that shows mounting urgency across President Xi Jinping’s government to shore up the economy and halt a $6 trillion stock-market rout. The cut was announced unexpectedly by People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng during a press conference on Wednesday in Beijing and sends a new signal that officials are eager to curb the stock-market selloff, while also stepping up support for the broader economy.
The RRR, which determines the amount of cash banks have to keep in reserve, will be lowered by 0.5% on Feb. 5 to provide 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) in long-term liquidity to the market, the People’s Bank of China’s Governor Pan Gongsheng told reporters at a briefing.
The cut comes on the heels of signs of gathering government support for China’s swooning stock market, with investors detecting a rash of share buying by pension funds, insurers and other state-linked firms, and follows a Bloomberg report that Beijing is also “mulling” a 2 trillion market rescue package.
As Bloomberg notes, it was a “rare and transparent reveal of a policy change by the head of the PBOC.” Typically the central bank announces it on its website first, with the State Council — China’s cabinet — sometimes hinting at one beforehand. But troubling economic data and the massive rout in stocks have prompted authorities to step up rhetoric this week. Pan’s remarks add to a flurry of promises from other agencies following a call by Premier Li Qiang to stabilize the market.
“Announcing an RRR cut in advance suggests there’s no other effective tools available to stem the market rout,” said Shen Meng, managing director at Beijing-based Chanson & Co.
While many economists had been expecting a RRR cut at some point this quarter, it’s not clear how much this will move the needle. Several analysts see the latest move as a way to smooth liquidity ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday next month, though any broader impact on the economy may be limited.
“An RRR cut helps sentiment in the sense that the action seems more decisive,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Tocqueville Finance SA. “But some investors may use this as an exit opportunity if there is such short-term market rebound — unless there are more policies to address structural issues, like those with the property market.”
Todd Schubert, senior fixed-income strategist at Bank of Singapore, echoed the sentiment, saying that the planned reduction in China’s reserve requirement ratio is a welcome step and investors are hopeful that it will be followed by further aggressive policy moves to bolster the economy. For bond investors, it is “not necessarily a game changer, and perhaps even a bit overdue but a welcome step in the right direction,” he said adding that “China has been suffering from a lack of demand stemming from diminished consumer confidence. The RRR cut should help improve domestic faith that the Chinese government is taking the necessary proactive steps to bolster the economy and stem recent market weakness and volatility.”
Others were even more pessimistic: Lin Jing Leong, a senior sovereign rate and currency strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, said that the impact of China’s plan to cut the reserve requirement ratio on financial markets is negligible and investors shouldn’t get too excited.
“This is very much expected given it is primarily for liquidity injection for the Chinese New Year, which tends to see system liquidity tighten as large scale cash withdrawals are made.”
To be sure, the market’s kneejerk reaction was favorable and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index extended gains following Pan’s remarks, capping its biggest two-day advance since November 2022. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds slipped slightly before rebounding to 2.51%. The offshore yuan erased earlier losses amid state-bank sales of the US dollar.
Most of the other announcements this week have been fairly vague. The state-owned enterprise watchdog vowed to improve the quality of listed SOEs, while the securities regulator said it would “make every effort” to maintain the stable operation of capital markets and to calm investor nerves. Bloomberg News reported that authorities are mulling a $278 billion rescue package using offshore money as part of a stabilization fund. The plan hasn’t been finalized.
Along with the reserve ratio, Pan also said the central bank would from Thursday lower interest rates on relending funds provided to banks that incentivize loans to the agricultural sector and small firms. He added that the PBOC will unveil an adjustment to borrowing policies related to commercial property — a move that will expand the amount of funds available to property developers and improve their liquidity conditions.
The central bank later followed up on the pending cut, along with reductions in some relending rates, in a statement.
Still, the move is unlikely to cheer economists who say that what the world’s second-largest economy needs isn’t cheaper or more abundant loans but rather a pickup in government spending, as well as more forceful efforts to bring a drawn-out real-estate crunch to a close and boost consumer confidence.
“It’s another step in the right direction, but monetary policy by itself is not enough to boost economic momentum,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
7 In 10 French Citizens Opposed To Solving Demographic Decline With Immigration
At a time when France is experiencing a spectacular demographic decline, an overwhelming majority of French citizens are not in favor of using immigration as a lever to boost the birth rate, recent polling showed.
According to a CSA survey conducted for CNews, Europe 1, and Le Journal du Dimanche, 69 percent of respondents rejected using replacement through immigration as a means of injecting fresh blood into the French economy.
Upon further analysis, women (71 percent) were slightly more opposed to mass immigration than men (67 percent), and while every age group rejected the idea, elderly respondents were more firmly opposed.
A total of 56 percent of 18-24-year-olds were against using immigration to counter the declining birth rate, while 74 percent of those aged 35-49 and 70 percent of over-65s were opposed to it.
In a socio-economic breakdown, 65 percent of the most highly educated respondents were opposed, compared to 76 percent of those less qualified academically.
Supporters of Jordan Bardella’s National Rally were the most opposed at 94 percent, closely followed by voters of Éric Zemmour’s conservative Reconquest party at 92 percent.
For the Republicans, this opposition is slightly less pronounced but remains in the majority at 84 percent. On the Renaissance side, 62 percent of those polled were also against.
Conversely, on the left of the political spectrum, supporters of all parties are in favor of the proposal. Supporters of La France Insoumise (56 percent), the Greens (58 percent), and the Socialist Party (60 percent) are in favor of using immigration as a solution to the country’s demographic decline.
The number of births in France has not been at such a low level since the end of World War II. According to Insee data, the year 2023 saw just 678,000 babies born, a 6.6 percent drop from the previous year.
Faced with this demographic challenge, some politicians are proposing more immigration to counter the population decline.
Turkey Approves Sweden’s Accession To NATO After 20 Month Delay
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 02:45 AM
After nearly two years of delays, Turkey’s parliament finally agreed to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid on Tuesday, clearing the biggest remaining hurdle to expanding the Western military alliance following the Ukraine war. Turkey’s general assembly, where President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling alliance holds a majority, voted 287-55 to approve the application that Sweden first made in 2022 to boost its security in response to “fear” that Russia would invade it, when in reality Russia invaded Ukraine in response to the encroaching NATO expansion that is now taking place.
When Sweden and Finland asked to join in 2022, Turkey raised objections over what it said was the two countries’ protection of groups it deems terrorists, effectively vetoing the process as all NATO members need to approve applications from countries seeking to join the alliance. Turkey endorsed Finland’s membership last April but, along with Hungary, had kept Sweden waiting.
“We support NATO enlargement to improve the alliance’s deterrence efforts… We hope Finland and Sweden’s attitude towards fighting terrorism sets an example for our other allies,” Fuat Oktay, head of parliament’s foreign affairs commission and a ruling AK Party member, said during debate.
“I greatly appreciate the Turkish Parliament’s decision to approve Sweden’s entry into NATO today,” U.S. Ambassador Jeff Flake said in a written statement on Tuesday. He said Turkey’s “commitment to the NATO Alliance clearly demonstrates our enduring partnership.”
Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom also welcomed the Turkish parliament’s approval. “We now look forward to President Erdogan signing the ratification document,” Billstrom said in a written statement.
After Erdogan signs the legislation, as he is expected to do within days, it will leave only Hungary – whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban has friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin – as the only NATO member state not to have approved Sweden’s accession. Orban said earlier on Tuesday he had invited his Swedish counterpart to visit and negotiate his country joining the bloc. Hungary’s parliament is in recess until around mid-February.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the Turkish move and said: “I also count on Hungary to complete its national ratification as soon as possible.”
Unlike most members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Turkey and Hungary maintain better, in fact cordial, relations with Russia. While opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has criticised Western sanctions on Moscow. For its part, Russia has cautioned that it would respond if NATO bolstered military infrastructure in the two Nordic states. Sweden, whose membership bid marked a historic shift away from a non-aligned security policy, would enhance NATO defences in the Baltic Sea region facing Russia, further encouraging Putin’s “paranoia” that NATO is intent on encircling Russia.
In recent months, Turkey’s delays had frustrated its Western allies and enabled it to extract some concessions. Ankara had urged Stockholm to toughen its stance on local members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the European Union and United States also deem a terrorist group. In response, Stockholm introduced a new anti-terrorism bill that makes being a member of a terrorist organisation illegal. Sweden, Finland, Canada and the Netherlands also took steps to relax policies on arms exports to Turkey.
In parliament, Oktay said Erdogan’s AK Party endorsed Sweden’s NATO bid after its positive steps fighting terrorism. The AKP’s nationalist allies MHP and the main opposition CHP also endorsed Sweden’s bid. Opposition nationalist, Islamist and leftist parties rejected it, while four MPs abstained.
Erdogan, who had sent Sweden’s bid to parliament in October, linked the ratification to U.S. approval of sales of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. The White House backs the sale and some analysts expect a deal to swiftly follow Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s bid. But there is no clear time frame for the U.S. Congress to approve the deal.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/
IDF pushes in Khan Yunis’s west, the heart of Hamas’s operations in Gaza
Dozens more Hamas terrorists had been killed by Tuesday morning.
IDF troops on the ground in Gaza, January 22, 2024(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF on Tuesday continued its new, major division-level push in western Khan Yunis, which it had started on Monday, maintaining the most intense fighting since early December, when the military first entered other parts of Hamas’s southern capital.
Combined between Monday and Tuesday, over 100 Hamas terrorists have already been killed in larger-than-usual organized battles, with around 50 Hamas fighters killed on Monday and a similar number on Tuesday.
There were no signs that the incident in central Gaza on Monday, in which 21 IDF soldiers were killed, was having any direct impact on the ongoing Khan Yunis attack.
On Monday, Division 98 unleashed serious forces from its seven brigades, artillery, tanks, and air support and surrounded western Khan Yunis, which, until now, the IDF had mostly steered clear of.
On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed several ambush units with rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-tank missiles, as well as several Hamas forces in extremely close-range fighting.IDF soldiers of Division 98 in Khan Yunis, January 22, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Also on Tuesday, the IDF found the largest strategic tunnel yet discovered in southern Gaza, with a length of one and a half kilometers. The military’s takeover of the tunnel and the manufacturing facilities relating to the tunnel network is expected to significantly harm any future potential Hamas rocket attacks from southern Gaza.
IDF expanding military operations
The IDF’s message early Monday morning about large amounts of airstrikes was in preparation to give the ground forces an easier time moving into the new areas. For the last seven weeks, IDF attacks on Khan Yunis had focused on the northern and eastern portions of the city.
On both days, the IDF called western Khan Yunis the heart of Hamas’s operations in Gaza, including areas where its top two leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, grew up.
A picture taken from Rafah on January 23, 2024 shows smoke over Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip during Israeli strikes (AFP)
As it suffered the most single-day fatalities of its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces said it completed the encirclement of southern Gaza’s Khan Younis overnight Monday, killing dozens of Hamas operatives in the process.
The encirclement marked a major advance, but it was unclear how much closer it would bring Israel to defeating Hamas or freeing the hostages held in Gaza — two central war aims that have proved increasingly elusive — as talks on a protracted ceasefire appeared to be gathering pace.
According to media reports, Hamas’s leaders in Gaza are believed to be hiding in tunnels in Khan Younis, likely surrounded by hostages.
The 98th Division led a major push into the western part of Khan Younis over the past day, with the 7th Armored Brigade and Givati Brigade encircling the city, the military said.
The division’s Commando Brigade has carried out operations deeper into Khan Younis, which the IDF says is a major Hamas stronghold.
Over the past day, the IDF said ground forces engaged in close-quarters battles with Hamas operatives and airstrikes were carried out, killing “many dozens of terrorists.”
The military said troops killed Hamas fighters wielding RPGs just dozens of meters from the soldiers, gunmen who had opened fire, and operatives booby-trapping buildings and roads with explosive devices.
Troops operating in the Khan Younis area also uncovered rockets prepared for launch, tunnels, and other weapons, the IDF added.
As Israeli forces operate deep within Khan Younis, the IDF announced that reservists of Gaza Division’s Southern Brigade recently wrapped up their offensive and defensive operations on the outskirts of the southern Gaza city.
Troops of the 630th Reserve Battalion operated with combat engineers to locate and destroy Hamas “attack tunnel” shafts and other underground infrastructure on the outskirts of northern Khan Younis, the IDF said.
Also as part of the Southern Brigade’s operations, reservists of the 261st Brigade worked to destroy Hamas infrastructure in the border area, the IDF said.
Israel launched its offensive against Hamas in Gaza after thousands of the group’s terrorists stormed across the border on October 7, massacring some 1,200 people and taking another 253 as hostages into the Strip.
Israel says it has killed thousands of terrorists and has largely defeated Hamas in northern Gaza in operations that caused widespread destruction to that part of the territory, including Gaza City. In recent weeks the offensive has focused on Khan Younis and refugee camps in central Gaza, including Maghazi, that date back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation.
The Khan Younis area, unlike most parts of northern Gaza, has many civilians sheltering. The IDF said in a statement that it is aware of the sites where civilians are sheltering, along with hospitals, and was seeking to avoid harming them amid its operations. It accuses Hamas of using the civilian population as human shields by embedding itself in residential and civilian areas.
Palestinians who flee from Khan Younis from Israeli ground and air offensive on the Gaza Strip arrive in Rafah, southern Gaza, Monday, Jan. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
Raed al-Nems, a spokesperson for the Palestine Red Crescent rescue service, said there was heavy fighting around the city’s Al-Amal Hospital. He said a shell had hit the fourth floor, killing one person and wounding 10 others. Medical teams were unable to enter or exit the hospital, and a territory-wide communication outage had further complicated rescue efforts, he said.
As fighting raged, many Palestinians once again were displaced, with thousands heading south to Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah, where the majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are now believed to be sheltering in public buildings and tent camps.
Meanwhile, the IDF suffered its heaviest losses since the start of the ground operation with 24 soldiers killed over the previous day, 21 of them in one incident as two buildings collapsed when demolition charges planted by the military were triggered by an RPG fired at troops.
Family and friends of Israeli reservist Hadar Kapeluk mourn over his grave during his funeral at Mt. Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem, January 23, 2024. (Ohad Zwigenberg/AP)
The Israeli casualties, announced on Tuesday, were celebrated as a victory by Palestinians.
“The resistance said it is going to make Gaza a graveyard for the occupation, and this is what is happening,” said Abu Khaled, sheltering in a school in Deir al-Balah, one of the few areas yet to be stormed by Israeli forces. “The more they stay, the more we will suffer for sure, but the more they will suffer too.”
Sami Abu Zuhri, head of the political office of Hamas in exile, said the Israeli losses were proof that the armed wing of Hamas was only getting stronger, and “the American and Israeli goal to get rid of Hamas or weaken it is not possible.”
“We call on the American administration to stop this pointless policy and stop betting on the possibility of weakening or finishing Hamas,” he said by phone to Reuters from an undisclosed location.
Israelis spoke of the losses as a necessary sacrifice in the war against Hamas.
“You know, it’s our sons, it’s our brothers, it’s terrible — but we’ve got to do what we’ve got to do so that October 7 doesn’t happen again,” said Blina Rhodes on the street in Jerusalem. “You have to get rid of Hamas and make Gaza safe for us. Otherwise, we have no place to live.”
Palestinians fleeing from Khan Younis in Rafah, southern Gaza, January 22, 2024. (Fatima Shbair/AP)
The Hamas-run health ministry said Monday that 25,295 Gazans had been killed so far in the war, an unverified figure that includes Hamas operatives as well as those killed in failed Palestinian rocket launches. The IDF says it has killed more than 9,000 Hamas members. Since the start of the ground operation, 219 IDF soldiers have been killed in the fighting.
It is believed that 132 of the hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 — including at least 28 bodies — remain in Gaza after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, four were released earlier and one was rescued by troops. The bodies of 11 hostages, including three mistakenly killed by the military, have been recovered from the Strip by troops.
Relatives of hostages still held in Gaza have called for more effort to bring them home, even if that means reining in the war. Some burst into a parliamentary committee hearing on Monday
END
Is there another deal in the making?
(Jerusalem Post)
Hamas heads ‘open’ to release remaining Gaza hostages in deal with IDF – report
Hamas’s willingness to discuss a release deal indicates a change in its policy, having stressed previously that it would only release the remaining hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire.
Hamas is open to a Gaza ceasefire deal that would include the release of some of the remaining 130 hostages, the Wall Street Journal reported late on Tuesday, citing Egyptian sources.
As per officials in Cairo, the terrorist group also “expressed openness” to a deal to release all remaining women and children, not including female soldiers taken into Gaza. In the previous hostage release deal that also focused on women and children, 105 hostages were freed from the Strip.
A change in Hamas policy, 110 days into Gaza war?
Hamas’s willingness to discuss a release deal indicates a change in its policy, having stressed previously that it would only release the remaining hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the withdrawal of IDF troops.
Earlier on Tuesday, Israeli officials said that the Qatari and Egyptian mediators have not notified them of Hamas’s rejection of the two-month ceasefire deal proposed by the Israeli government.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Israeli sources remain skeptical over the realization of said discussions, “but are willing to continue discussing the guidelines for a potential deal.”
Israeli forces operate in the Gaza Strip on January 23, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Israel, Hamas have ‘broad agreement’ on month-long truce – Reuters
Reuters reported early on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas “broadly agree in principle” that an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners could take place during a month-long ceasefire, but the framework plan is being held up by the two sides’ differences over how to bring a permanent end to the Gaza war.
Intense mediation efforts led by Qatar, Washington, and Egypt in recent weeks have focused on a phased approach to release different categories of Israeli hostages – starting with civilians and ending with soldiers – in return for a break in hostilities, the release of Palestinian prisoners and more aid to Gaza.
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END
Israel wants Sinwar, Deif expelled from Gaza in new ceasefire deal
While Israel has sought to negotiate one stage at a time, Hamas is seeking “a package deal” that agrees a permanent ceasefire before hostages are released.
By REUTERSJANUARY 24, 2024 01:10Updated: JANUARY 24, 2024 08:37
YAHYA SINWAR, leader of Hamas in Gaza, attends a rally in Gaza City marking the terror organization’s 35th anniversary last December. Sinwar has once again aimed the arrow at Israel’s Achilles’ heel, argues the writer.(photo credit: ATIA MOHAMMED/FLASH90)
Israel and Hamas broadly agree in principle that an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners could take place during a month-long ceasefire, but the framework plan is being held up by the two sides’ differences over how to bring a permanent end to the Gaza war, three sources said.
Intense mediation efforts led by Qatar, Washington and Egypt in recent weeks have focused on a phased approach to release different categories of Israeli hostages – starting with civilians and ending with soldiers – in return for a break in hostilities, the release of Palestinian prisoners and more aid to Gaza.
The latest round of shuttle diplomacy started on Dec. 28 and has narrowed disagreements about the length of an initial ceasefire to around 30 days, after Hamas had first proposed a pause of several months, said one of the sources, an official briefed on the negotiations.
However, Hamas has since refused to move forward with the plans until the future conditions of a permanent ceasefire are agreed, according to six sources. Most of the sources consulted for this story requested anonymity in order to speak freely about sensitive matters.
PALESTINIAN UN envoy Riyad Mansour holds up a sign calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as he speaks in the General Assembly Hall at UN headquarters in New York City, last week. The UN is losing its relevance fast, the writers argue. (credit: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
While Israel has sought to negotiate one stage at a time, Hamas is seeking “a package deal” that agrees a permanent ceasefire before hostages are released during the initial phase, said one of the sources, a Palestinian official close to the mediation efforts. Israel and Hamas are speaking through the mediators, not talking directly.
A White House spokesman said on Tuesday US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk was in the region – for the second time in a week – for discussions about releasing hostages and that Washington would support a longer “humanitarian pause.”
The US State Department and White House, Qatar’s foreign ministry and Egypt’s State Information Service did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Advertisement
Two Egyptian security sources said that there was work underway to convince Hamas to accept a one-month truce to be followed by a permanent ceasefire. However, Hamas is requesting guarantees that the second phase of the deal would be carried out, in order to agree to the initial truce, the sources said.
The sources did not provide details of what such guarantees might consist of.
Asked about the negotiations, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Monday the organization was open to discussing ideas but that no deal was yet in place.
“We are open to all initiatives and proposals, but any agreement must be based on ending the aggression and the occupation’s complete pullout from Gaza Strip,” said Abu Zuhri.
One offer by Israel is to end the war if Hamas removes six senior leaders from Gaza, said a seventh source, a senior Hamas official. However, Hamas “absolutely” rejected the proposal, he said.
The source said the list included the masterminds of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, Yahya Sinwar and Mohamed al-Deif, who are Israel’s top targets to kill or capture in the war and are thought to be hiding deep within Hamas’ extensive network of tunnels beneath Gaza.
Reuters was not immediately able to confirm this proposal with Israeli sources. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined a request for comment about the proposal or the broader negotiations. According to recordings leaked to Israel’s N12 news network, Netanyahu said such a “surrender and exile” scenario was being discussed in early January.
Netanyahu under pressure
Almost four months after the Hamas attack on southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people, Israel’s offensive in Gaza has yet to eliminate Hamas’ senior leadership or its capacity to fight.
Netanyahu reiterated this week that only “total victory” over Hamas would bring an end to the war, but he is under increasing pressure to reach a deal, including from members of his war cabinet and the families of around 130 hostages who remain in captivity since the Hamas incursion.
Israel’s military on Monday suffered the highest daily death toll of its Gaza offensive with 24 fatalities, including 21 in a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) attack in central Gaza and three elsewhere.
Five of the sources said Israel had refused to discuss any end to the war that did not include Hamas being dismantled. They did not specify if exiling the leadership would meet that bar.
Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy said at a press conference on Tuesday that efforts were ongoing to secure the hostages’ release. He said Israel would not agree to a ceasefire deal that leaves Hamas in power in the enclave.
Qatar and Washington were instrumental in negotiating a week-long truce in November that led to the release of more than 100 hostages and around 240 Palestinian prisoners.
Starting on Dec. 28, Qatar’s negotiators sent the framework of a new agreement to Hamas and Israel, asking both sides to indicate what they were prepared to agree to, the official briefed on the negotiations said.
When the two sides responded earlier this month, Hamas sought a truce that would last several months, while Israel wanted all the hostages freed in weeks, the official said.
Over the past few weeks, US and Qatari mediators have drawn the two sides closer to agreeing the 30-day process, which would include the release of all hostages, entry of more aid to Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners, the official said.
Despite the difficulty of bridging the gap in positions, one of the sources, briefed on the discussions, described the talks as intensive and said a deal could be agreed “at any minute.”
US diplomatic efforts
Washington is ratcheting up diplomatic pressure to end the violence. Earlier in January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shuttled between Arab states and Israel on a frenetic tour aimed at finding a way forward from the bloodshed.
However, Hamas is seeking guarantees that Israel will not restart the conflict, a US source briefed on the matter and the Palestinian official said.
Hamas wants the United States, Egypt and Qatar to guarantee the implementation, and is concerned that Netanyahu’s government would resume fighting once Hamas frees civilian hostages, even if Israeli soldiers remain captive, the Palestinian official said.
During this round, Hamas had sought the release of all Palestinian prisoners from Israel’s prisons, including those that participated in the Oct. 7 attacks, the US source said. The official briefed on the talks said Hamas had since softened that demand, which would likely be vehemently opposed by Israel.
Hamas believes that before seriously talking about a long-term ceasefire, Israel wants to conclude its operations in Khan Younis, the southern city in Gaza that has seen the most intense offensive and fighting in recent weeks, the Palestinian official said.
Reuters could not immediately establish the status of discussions about whether Israel’s troops and armor would remain in Gaza during any prolonged ceasefire.
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END
Hamas leaders reportedly communicating using handwritten notes carried by runners
Terror group said to have employed aging landline phone network since 2009 to keep conversations hidden from Israeli eavesdropping, but war damage forced even lower-tech methods
In this picture taken during a media tour organized by the Israeli military on December 15, 2023, soldiers visit a tunnel that Hamas reportedly used to attack Israel through the Erez border crossing on October 7. (Jack Guez/AFP)
Hamas leaders, hunkered down in subterranean bunkers in the Gaza Strip, are reportedly communicating with each other using handwritten notes carried around the war-torn territory by runners.
The memos are even enabling communication with senior officials abroad, the Saudi-owned Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported Tuesday.
The London-based outlet revealed aspects of the secret communications system used by the terror group’s chiefs to exchange messages without being detected by Israeli intelligence.
The war erupted when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting 253 as hostages.
Israel responded with a military campaign to destroy Hamas, remove it from power, and release the hostages.
Since October 7, Hamas political and military leaders inside Gaza have been sheltering inside the massive tunnel system that crisscrosses the coastal Strip’s underground. Little is known about how they liaise with each other from different parts of the enclave and make decisions, such as formulating positions in negotiations via mediators with Israel, and how they consult with top Hamas officials abroad.
Troops operating in the Gaza Strip in an undated photo released on January 23, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Citing sources close to the Hamas leadership, Tuesday’s report said Hamas relied up until the outbreak of the war on a terrestrial communications network that was initially developed by engineers of its military wing in 2009 and was upgraded over the years with technology smuggled into Gaza from abroad. Switchboards were reportedly installed underground and connected to old landlines aboveground.
Each political and military leader had a personal contact point with a number, and networks were constantly monitored to prevent wiretapping. Maintenance was conducted every month, the sources added.
Israel was reportedly aware of the existence of the system and launched several attempts to hack it or disable it. One successful attempt was conducted in May 2018, when the IDF managed to blow up an exchange point in the central Gaza Strip and kill a group of Hamas engineers repairing a fault, the sources recounted.
The system was said to still be in place at the outbreak of the war. While some of the switchboards and tunnels in which cables ran were destroyed by Israeli forces in subsequent weeks, the sources said that the network could still enable intensive communications between Hamas leaders in November, as they deliberated a proposal for a seven-day truce with Israel and a partial release of hostages. The deal eventually went through and 105 hostages were released in exchange for three times as many Palestinian security prisoners held in Israel, and an increase in humanitarian aid to the Strip.
Hamas terrorists accompany newly released Israeli hostages before handing them over to the Red Cross in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip on November 28, 2023. (Said Khatib/AFP)
Some Hamas aides were reportedly tasked with looping in the group’s leadership abroad, particularly in Beirut and Doha, through the use of encryption software the terror organization had acquired from outside Gaza.
The sources added that the network was also employed to communicate with leaders of the allied Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group, to which Hamas had previously provided dedicated contact points. The report speculated that the system was used to coordinate between the two terror groups to decide which hostages to release during the November truce, noting that in several instances members of the two groups appeared together aboveground as the abductees were handed over to the Red Cross.
The lull in fighting fell apart after a week, with Israel accusing Hamas of violating the terms. Since then, the IDF has advanced further inside Gaza, forcing Hamas leaders to resort to a more rudimentary method of communication – written messages on pieces of paper carried by Hamas members and collaborators from one location to another.
The same method is now being used to convey messages to those Gazans who liaise with the leadership abroad, the sources said. The latter, however, are not entitled to make decisions without the approval of the top leaders inside the Strip, in particular Yahya Sinwar.
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ISRAEL GAZA
Israeli Military Now Says It’s “Impossible” To Destroy Vast Hamas Tunnel Network
Several sources within the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) say it will be unable to destroy most of Hamas’s tunnel network under Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged the Israeli military will eliminate Hamas and rescue the Israeli captives in Gaza. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Tel Aviv will be unable to achieve either goal.
IDF officials at all levels, including generals, say destroying the tunnel network is impossible. “The Israel Defense Forces will not destroy all the Hamas and Islamic Jihad tunnels under Gaza. Probably not even most of them,” Haaretz reports. “The IDF is scaling down its forces in Gaza City with full knowledge that many tunnels have been overlooked. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. The tunnels under the Gaza Strip were there even before Hamas’ founding in 1987 and it seems they’ll be here after this war too.”
The Israeli outlet explains that the Israeli military command was surprised by the extent of the tunnel network beneath Gaza. “Only gradually did the IDF realize that the tunnel network was much more extensive than it had previously understood and that their main use by Hamas was not for launching arsenals, but for preserving its forces.” The Haaretz article continues, “Another assumption that was proven wrong was that it would be enough to control the ground above for a few weeks for Hamas fighters, starved of food, water and oxygen to be forced to emerge.”
The incorrect assessment of the tunnels is just one of many Israeli intelligence failures highlighted since October 7. Israeli officials had the Hamas plans for what ultimately became the October 7 operation over a year before the attack. During the months leading up to the attack, several different sources attempted to alert Tel Aviv to a growing threat in Gaza.
The New York Times reported that Tel Aviv initially believed Hamas controlled 250 miles of tunnels. That number is now assessed to be close to 450 miles. Haaretz reported that one IDF commander discarded the maps he was given and dismissed the intelligence as useless.
The US estimates that Israel has killed 5,000 to 7,500 Hamas fighters. The Wall Street Journal reports the group has begun to reestablish its presence in areas of northern Gaza ostensibly cleared by the IDF.
Entire apartments and large living areas have been found in the tunnels…
Haaretz provides details on how the tunnel network allows Hamas to move assets around Gaza. “Not only were the tunnels stocked with provisions for a prolonged siege, they provided safe passage between different parts of the city and the Strip,” the outlet states. “The IDF claimed to have destroyed Hamas’ regional battalions only to find fighters from those battalions turning up in other areas. And when signs of the presence of hostages were discovered in the tunnels, they had by then been moved to other tunnels.”
The acknowledgment of the IDF’s inability to take out Hamas’s infrastructure comes as several reports have documented that Israel will be unable to achieve its military objectives in Gaza: rescue the hostages and eliminate Hamas.
“A day will come when the Israeli security establishment will have to admit that destroying the tunnel networks was never a realistic objective. The IDF can perhaps deal with the prospect of a threat from underground, but the tunnels will remain beneath Gaza,” Haaretz notes.
END
IRAN/IRAQ/USA
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL
end
LEBANON/ISRAEL
end
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
IDF reservists foil West Bank terror attack – report
According to preliminary reports, an armed terrorist on a bike was eliminated by IDF reservists on Tuesday after he opened fire at the forces operating near the Einav intersection in the West Bank, Israeli media said.
There were no casualties to Israeli forces, according to the report.
This is a developing story.
end
Houthis/WEST
24 countries are now protecting the Red Sea from Yemen’s Houthis
(Reuters/JerusalemPost)
UK issues statement from 24 nations on strikes on Yemen’s Houthis
Britain said in a joint statement on Tuesday that 24 countries, including the United States, Germany and Australia, conducted additional strikes on Monday against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
“In response to continued illegal and reckless Houthi attacks against vessels transiting the Red Sea and surrounding waterways, the armed forces of the United States and United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, conducted additional strikes against eight targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen,” a joint statement issued by the British prime minister’s office said.
“These strikes were designed to disrupt and degrade the capability of the Houthis to continue their attacks on global trade and innocent mariners from around the world, while avoiding escalation.”
END
HOUTHIS//USA/
USA military strikes two Houthis anti ship missiles in Yemen
(Jerusalem Post)
US military strikes two Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen
The US strikes are the latest against the Iran-backed group over its targeting of Red Sea shipping, and followed a larger round of strikes a day earlier.
By REUTERSJANUARY 24, 2024 04:56Updated: JANUARY 24, 2024 05:42
Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4 takes off. Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft have conducted precision strike operations against Houthi military targets in response to further attacks on shipping in the Red Sea(photo credit: REUTERS)
The US military carried out more strikes in Yemen early on Wednesday, destroying two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed at the Red Sea and were preparing to launch, the US military said in a statement.
The US strikes, which took place at roughly 2:30 a.m. (2330 GMT), are the latest against the Iran-backed group over its targeting of Red Sea shipping, and followed a larger round of strikes a day earlier.
The Houthis, who control the most populous parts of Yemen, have said their attacks are in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel strikes Gaza. The attacks have disrupted global shipping and deepened concern that fallout from the Israel-Hamas war could destabilize the Middle East.
US military statement on the strikes
“US forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the US Navy ships in the region,” the US military’s Central Command said in a statement.
“US forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense.”
Honor guards carry the coffin of a Houthi fighter during a military funeral procession in Sanaa, Yemen January 20, 2024. (credit: KHALED ABDULLAH/REUTERS)
Since the United States started striking Houthi military sites in Yemen on Jan. 11, the Pentagon says it has destroyed or degraded over 25 missile launch and deployment facilities and more than 20 missiles.
It says it has also struck drones, coastal radar and Houthi air surveillance capabilities as well as weapon storage areas.Advertisement
“We have been very focused on targeting the kinds of things that they’ve been employing or using to conduct attacks against international shipping and mariners, and that will continue to be our focus,” Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder told a news briefing on Tuesday.
Ryder noted that the last Houthi attack was Jan. 18, suggesting the strikes were having an impact.
“Since that time we have taken several self-defense strikes, when there was an imminent threat or an anticipated launch,” he said.
Biden’s emerging strategy on Yemen aims to weaken the Houthi terrorists but stops well short of trying to defeat the group or directly confront Iran, the Houthis’ main sponsor, experts say.
The strategy – a blend of limited military strikes and sanctions – appears aimed at punishing the Houthis while attempting to limit the danger of a wider Middle East conflict.
.END
HOUTHIS/USA
Explosion strikes near ship off Yemen coast
(zerohedge)
Explosion strikes near ship off Yemen coast; no damage reported
An explosion recently struck near a ship traveling through a crucial strait near Yemen, though no damage or injuries have been reported, the British military says.
No group immediately claims responsibility for the attack, but suspicion immediately falls on Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, an organization monitoring Mideast waterways overseen by the British military, reports the blast happened near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen.
The explosion happened some 100 meters (325 feet) from the vessel, but caused no damage and its crew is safe, it says.
The Houthis, who have been launching attacks on ships since November over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, does not immediately acknowledge the incident.
The US and the UK have launched rounds of airstrikes targeting suspected missile storage and launch sites used by the Houthis over the attacks.
END
HOUTHIS/USA/WEST/MAERSK
Maersk warns shippers to steer clear of Red Sea
(zerohedge)
“High Degree Of Risk”: US, Maersk Warn Shippers To Steer Clear Of Red Sea Crisis
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 11:10 AM
Two months of drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels, as well as hijackings, in the highly contested Red Sea region by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, have yet to abate as economic costs mount for shippers and increased risks of snarled global supply chains.
The latest evidence that Red Sea disruptions will persist is a notice from the Department of Transportation informing commercial ship operators to avoid the “Southern Red Sea between 12N and 16N.”
There continues to be a high degree of risk to commercial vessels transiting the Southern Red Sea between 12N and 16N. While the decision to transit remains at the discretion of individual vessels and companies, it is recommended that US flag and US-owned commercial vessels remain North of 18N in the Red Sea or East of 46E in the Gulf of Aden until further notice.
Besides Houthi attacks on Western vessels, the US and allies have ramped up attacks on the rebels in Yemen with repeated airstrikes.
Bloomberg reported early Wednesday that one of the world’s largest shippers, Maersk, told clients in a notice to prepare for supply line disruptions as containerized vessels are rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope, which takes an extra 1-2 weeks for Asia to Europe shipping lanes.
“While we continue to hope for a sustainable resolution in the near-future and do all we can to contribute towards it, the situation currently remains untenable,” Maersk said.
According to Flexport data, more than 500 container ships that would have sailed through the Red Sea have been rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. This is about a quarter of all the container shipping capacity in the world.
Meanwhile, a new report from the Financial Times, citing “American officials,” says the US has asked China to help rein in Houthi rebels.
Officials have repeatedly raised the matter with top Chinese officials in the past three months, asking them to convey a warning to Iran not to inflame tensions in the Middle East after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and the ensuing war.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his deputy, Jon Finer, discussed the issue in meetings this month in Washington with Liu Jianchao, head of the Chinese Communist party’s international department, according to US officials. Secretary of state Antony Blinken also raised it, said a state department official. -FT
In recent weeks, Red Sea diversions have tightened capacity and resulted in soaring container prices:
“We haven’t seen costs increase this quickly since the last crunch in the pandemic,” said Vincent Iacopella, a logistics expert at Alba Wheels Up, who spoke with Bloomberg.
Iacopella said, “Many of the underlying bottlenecks in supply chains remain, even though prices dropped last year as the Covid-19 disruptions faded.
The cost of shipping containers from China to the Mediterranean Sea has quadrupled since late November.
We pointed out last week that executives and investors are becoming concerned about Red Sea disruptions in earnings calls.
Using the Document Search function on Bloomberg, earnings-call mentions of “Red Sea” topped 41 last week, a record high. As the earning season progresses, the mentions will likely increase.
And as of writing this note, Sky News reports Houthi forces “fire a second missile from Al-Bayda towards the Gulf of Aden.”
Houthis Launch Fresh Attack On US Maersk Vessel, Ignoring Navy Escort
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 11:30 AM
Update(11:30ET): As we previously noted, earlier in the morning Sky News reported that Houthi forces fired at least two missiles from Al-Bayda towards the Gulf of Aden. Well, it seems they were targeting a US vessel, even despite it having a US Naval escort. Per the breaking details in Bloomberg:
Two Maersk vessels were targeted in attacks near the Red Sea on Wednesday, ShippingWatch reports, citing the Danish shipping company. The vessels, which belong to Maersk’s US subsidiary Maersk Line Ltd., were headed for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, escorted by the US Navy, news website says.
ShippingWatch indicated that as a result of the attack, wherein all the crew and ships were unscathed, the ships have turned around. Maersk starting in early January suspended transit for all its ships, but the directive did not apply to its US subsidiary.
This fresh incident is hugely significant given that after some eight or more rounds of US missile attacks and airstrikes on Houthi positions, the Iran-linked group remains undeterred, even with a US Navy escort seeking to protect an American container vessel.
END
Please! it is not nice to wake up Biden the Magnificent from his slumber on this:
US Warship Intercepted Houthi Missiles Launched At US-Flagged Ship
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 02:46 PM
Update(1446ET): US Central Command has confirmed the attack incident on the US container ship, but has provided further key details saying that one of the no less than three Navy warships accompanying the US-flagged Maersk vessel intercepted most of the inbound anti-ship missiles fired from Yemen:
The US Central Command has said that the Houthis launched three anti-ship ballistic missiles at a US-flagged container ship off the coast of Yemen earlier on Wednesday.
“One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107),” CENTCOM said in a statement. “There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship.”
The fact that the Houthis launched the missiles despite the presence of a warship group is a testament to the fact that the Western naval coalition has not served as an effective deterrent.
Update(11:30ET): As we previously noted, earlier in the morning Sky News reported that Houthi forces fired at least two missiles from Al-Bayda towards the Gulf of Aden. Well, it seems they were targeting a US vessel, even despite it having a US Naval escort. Per the breaking details in Bloomberg:
Two Maersk vessels were targeted in attacks near the Red Sea on Wednesday, ShippingWatch reports, citing the Danish shipping company. The vessels, which belong to Maersk’s US subsidiary Maersk Line Ltd., were headed for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, escorted by the US Navy, news website says.
ShippingWatch indicated that as a result of the attack, wherein all the crew and ships were unscathed, the ships have turned around. Maersk starting in early January suspended transit for all its ships, but the directive did not apply to its US subsidiary.
This fresh incident is hugely significant given that after some eight or more rounds of US missile attacks and airstrikes on Houthi positions, the Iran-linked group remains undeterred, even with a US Navy escort seeking to protect an American container vessel.
* * *
END
Armed drones target USA base for housing near Iraq’s Erbil airport
(Reuters/Jerusalem Post)
Armed drone targets base housing US forces near Iraq’s Erbil airport
An armed drone has targeted a base housing US forces near northern Iraq’s Erbil airport, two sources tell Reuters.
END
IRAN/IRAQ/USA
“Only A Matter Of Time” Before US Troops Are Killed In Iraq & Syria, Biden Officials Say
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 08:40 PM
White House officials were cited in a New York Times piece describing that it’s “only a matter of time” before American troops are killed in Iraq or Syria as Iran-linked militant groups continue launching rockets and drones on US bases and positions. The report begins with this: “Another day, another barrage of rockets and another spark that American officials fear could set off a wildfire of violence across the Middle East”—and then transitions to the following astounding and frank admission:
The latest attack on American troops in the region over the weekend resulted in no deaths, but President Biden and his advisers worry that it is only a matter of time. Whenever a report of a strike arrives at the White House Situation Room, officials wonder whether this will be the one that forces a more decisive retaliation and results in a broader regional war.
The report goes on the suggest that Iran could be hit hard in a direct US response in the scenario of American troops being killed. This would of course raise the likelihood of broader regional war, and an expanse of US intervention in the Middle East.
Speaking of the internal Biden administration debate, the Times report says, “They (admin officials) do not want to let such attacks go without a response, but on the other hand do not want to go so far that the conflict would escalate into a full-fledged war, particularly by striking Iran directly.” However, “They privately say they may have no choice, however, if American troops are killed.”
And then this surprise emphasis: “That is a red line that has not been crossed, but if the Iranian-backed militias ever have a day of better aim or better luck, it easily could be.”
As of last weekend, international reports tallied that already at least 140 attacks have been launched on US troops in Iraq and Syria since the start of Israel’s Gaza offensive. Further this has included “nearly 70 U.S. personnel wounded, some of them suffering traumatic brain injuries”—but the majority of cases are considered minor.
On the question of whether the White House might give the order to attack Iran directly, this is anything but clear give it would be unprecedented. So far both sides have been fighting via proxy, for example in the context of the Syria war.
The US might instead choose to continue conducting airstrikes or major missile attacks on either locations in Iraq or Syria, targeting ‘pro-Iranian groups’, such as the Iraqi popular mobilization units.
Regardless, as the developing crisis in the Red Sea demonstrates, at this point a mere tit-for-tat slow escalation scenario is unlikely to deter the ongoing attacks on US positions in Syria and Iraq. However, a tiny minority of Congressmen have pointed out that the problem won’t exist at all in Iraq and Syria if Washington brings the troops home.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine Indirectly Admits It Shot Down Large Russian Transport Plane, Possibly With Own POWs On Board
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 12:10 PM
Update(12:10ET): The Kremlin is accusing Ukraine of shooting down the Russian Il-76 military transport plane that crashed in a border region near Ukraine. All 74 people aboard have been reported killed, including the 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were allegedly on board being transported.
The Kharkiv and Belgorod regions in particular have for months witnessed a huge uptick in aggressive Ukrainian military cross-border action, which has included use of missiles, mortars, and drones.
New reporting in The Associated Press suggests that Kiev has made an indirect admission of guilt, but there was no mention of Ukrainian POWs dying. “Hours after the crash, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made no mention of the crash in a statement,” writes AP. “But it added that Ukraine targets Russian military transport planes believed to be delivering missiles, especially near the border.”
This major incident not only points to more severe Russian escalation and retaliation on the horizon, but puts in peril any future Russia-Ukraine prisoner swaps, after a large recent one was successfully accomplished.
“Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed a swap was due to take place but said it had no information about who was on the crashed Russian plane,” the AP notes further. “Moscow did not ask for specific airspace to be kept safe for a certain length of time, as has happened in past exchanges, it said in a statement.”
Moments before the crash, Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov issued an emergency notification on his Telegram channel saying a “missile alert” had been triggered in the region. According to more from Russia’s direct accusation against Kiev:
The Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukrainian forces of shooting the plane down with air-defense missiles. “By committing this terrorist act, the Ukrainian leadership showed its true face, disregarding the lives of its citizens,” the ministry said.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry initially refused to comment on the incident. Ukrainskaya Pravda, a Ukrainian newspaper, initially reported that the plane was indeed shot down by the country’s military, but edited its article on the incident shortly afterwards to remove this information.
Likely Ukrainian cities are bracing for more Russian drone and missile attacks, given this has typically followed any major event where Ukraine’s military strikes Russian territory or large military assets.
* * *
Update (0759 ET): The Russian Ministry of Defence claims Russian radar systems detected two Ukrainian missiles in the area before the Russian transport plane full of Ukrainian prisoners crashed.
* * *
A Russian military plane transporting dozens of Ukrainian prisoners, as well as nine crew and guards, crashed in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defence released a statement about the incident:
“An Il-76 plane crashed in the Belgorod region at around 11 a.m. on January 24 while on a scheduled flight. It was transporting 65 captive servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Belgorod region for an exchange, in addition to six crewmembers and three accompanying persons.”
Bloomberg cited Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Defence Committee of the State Duma of Russia, who told the lower house of parliament that Ukraine downed the transport plane using either the US Patriot system or German-made IRIS-T.
The ministry also said the Russian Aerospace Forces is responding and has been sent to the incident area to investigate the cause of the crash.
Russain news agency Interfax said President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment on the crash, telling journalists that the information was still “too fresh.”
This comes as Ukraine and Russia exchanged nearly 500 prisoners earlier this month, the largest swap since the early days of the war.
There have also been reports Western allies have secretly met with Ukraine on a peace plan with Russia as the US presidential election cycle gears up.
END
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
In Early 2020, A Chinese Source Trusted By FBI Said COVID Leaked From Wuhan Lab, Sources Say
FBI’s entire 25-person Chinese intelligence squad knew of reliable human intelligence that SARS-CoV-2 Covid leaked from a lab…
Over the last several months, Public has reported on a growing body of evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the Covid pandemic escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China. Last year, Public and Racket were the first to report that US government officials had identified that the first patients to become sick with Covid worked at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).
Now, Public has learned from multiple sources that the FBI knew since at least March 2020 that Covid was the result of a lab leak. A Chinese national from Wuhan, working as a confidential human source (CHS) for the FBI, told their handler at the FBI’s Chinese Intelligence Squad. The sources said it was probable that the whole squad of 25 people knew.
“A person working at the Virology Institute lab in Wuhan, China was infected, left the building, and spread the virus outside the lab in Wuhan,” the CHS told the FBI, according to a source.
“It didn’t have anything to do with the wet market or the bat soup story they were going with.”
The sources asked Public to protect their identities and those of their colleagues. The sources say they are speaking up now out of concern over abuses of power within the FBI. They reached out to Public after seeing our story yesterday about how scientists, who Anthony Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) had in the past funded, sought to insert a furin cleavage site right where it exists on SARS-CoV-2.
The sources added that the FBI trusted the CHS because the person’s information had been corroborated at least three times previously.
“The CHS was from Wuhan, had been vetted, and the person had provided information on three prior occasions that they were able to corroborate as true and reliable.”
Another source said the FBI had considered the information “good intel.”
…
Two sources said that the CIA may have been conflicted in investigating its origins because it didn’t want to compromise investigations of the Wuhan lab that predated the outbreak of Covid-19.
“There was a clear lack of interest in a robust analysis of Chinese military connections to WIV research, connections between Chinese military and civilian research, and connections that could be drawn between US research and WIV activity,” the whistleblower said.
Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe suggested that there could be additional reasons behind the CIA’s lack of disclosure about COVID’s origins.
Canadian Government’s use of the Emergencies Act during Trucker Convoy in Ottawa was unlawful & ultra vires, acting beyond the granted scope of the authority or power; TAMPON man Trudeau to appeal
That the Canadian Government’s use of the Emergencies Act during the Trucker Convoy in Ottawa was indeed unlawful & ultra vires, and that certain of its measures such as freezing of bank accounts, were unconstitutional. This included arresting some and trying to arrest me. Coming after Hodkinson and myself…no doubt the tampon MENSTRUATING man himself, Justin Trudeau will appeal. end
Wolf has been a mandingo up in the assess of the crooks in the COVID lie as well asd the crooks in the Freedom Movement for we fight evil on 2 fronts! glad a soldier like Torma is on deck!
may/will drive an Epidemic of Autism calling for those Who Coerced Pregnant Women to Take mRNA injections (Malone, Bourla, Bancel, Weissman) To Be Held Responsible; I agree 100% with Bridle.
KATHERINE WATT; I stand by this, I am interested, I can see many are guilty! Excellent, informative, complete scholarship by Watt, we need an open mind, we must be willing to go where we never went
Research and organizing tool first posted April 28, 2022, subject to ongoing revision as new information comes to light. Last updated October 24, 2023. Orientation for new readers. PDF reports, summaries. 2 pages – Weaponization of Language and Law: US Government Bioterrorism Program from 1969 to Covid…
2 years ago · 1099 likes · 415 comments · Katherine Watt
‘Research and organizing tool first posted April 28, 2022, subject to ongoing revision as new information comes to light. Last updated October 24, 2023.
Pelosi’s J6 Committee Deleted Over 100 Encrypted Files to Keep Them from RepublicansIt has been confirmed that the House Select Committee on Jan. 6 deleted more than 100 encrypted files from their investigation just days before Republicans gained control of the House. The House Administration Committee’s Oversight Subcommittee, chaired by Republican Barry Loudermilk of Georgia, is conducting an inquiry into January 6, 2021. The panel is looking at the security shortcomings that day, as …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
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7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
Judge Says Feds Shouldn’t Have Used Emergencies Act—What Now?
Police face off with Freedom Convoy demonstrators in Ottawa on Feb. 19, 2022. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)
Federal Court Justice Richard Mosley ruled on Jan. 23 that the federal government’s use of the Emergencies Act in 2022 was “unreasonable.” Although in February 2023, the so-called Rouleau Inquiry found that use of the act in response to the Freedom Convoy was justified, the recent ruling is the first legal decision on the matter.
“This decision is important because it’s a legal determination,” lawyer Alexander Boissonneau-Lehner, who represents some applicants in the case, told The Epoch Times. The inquiry report written by Justice Paul Rouleau, on the other hand, was only “a report to parliament,” he said.
“I think the public thought that was the ultimate determination of this issue, but it’s not,” Mr. Boissonneau-Lehner said.
The federal government has said it will appeal the decision, but either way, the political fallout is what could have the greatest impact here, says lawyer and policy expert Aaron Wudrick.
“It’s going to make it a lot easier for critics of this government to say, ‘you violated the charter and used the most draconian law on the books, and a court has confirmed you did that,’” Mr. Wudrick, director of the Domestic Policy Program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, told The Epoch Times.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith were both quick to comment publicly on the decision.
“[Prime Minister Justin Trudeau] caused the crisis by dividing people. Then he violated Charter rights to illegally suppress citizens,” Mr. Poilievre said in a post on X. “As PM, I will unite our country for freedom.”
“Since Day 1, Alberta has been clear that the federal government’s decision to invoke the Emergencies Act during the COVID-19 pandemic violated the constitutionally guaranteed rights of Albertans and gave the federal government the ability to seize property without due process of law,” Ms. Smith said in a joint statement with Justice Minister Mickey Amery.
Ms. Smith and Mr. Amery likened it to other federal actions that courts have recently found unconstitutional. Those include the feds’ use of the Impact Assessment Act to exert power over development projects, and its classification of plastic goods in such a way as to bring them under federal control. Alberta challenged the federal government on both matters.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters on Jan. 23 that the government would appeal the decision.
“I was convinced at the time, it was the right thing to do,” she said. “I remain, and we remain convinced of that.”
She said public safety and national security were under threat at the time, “which includes our national economic security.”
One of the reasons for Justice Mosley’s decision was that he found the government lacked “reasonable grounds to believe that a threat to national security existed within the meaning of the [Emergencies] Act.”
What the Decision Says
Several applicants applied for judicial review in February 2022. They include participants in the Freedom Convoy who had their bank accounts and credit cards frozen, such as military veteran Edward Cornell and retired police officer Vincent Gircys.
Other applicants include organizations such as the Canadian Constitution Foundation (CCF) and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association (CCLA), which brought their applications on the basis of public interest.
Josh Dehaas, CCF counsel, explained the main legal points in Justice Mosley’s decision.
“He’s reviewing the decision to invoke the Emergencies Act for what’s called ’reasonableness,’ so basically looking at the text of the act, did cabinet essentially follow the law?” Mr. Dehaas told The Epoch Times.
Justice Mosley found there was not a significant enough “threat to the security of Canada” to invoke the act.
“That doesn’t include, you know, that we’re going to lose money if the border is blockaded,” Mr. Dehaas said.
He also found there were other laws in place that could have been used to handle the situation without invoking the act. Applicants argued that other, similar situations had been handled using existing laws. For example, Alberta was able to deal with the border blockade in Coutts without Emergencies Act special measures.
Justice Mosley also found actions taken as a result of the act being in place, including freezing bank accounts, were unconstitutional. He said they were unjustified violations of charter section 2(b) pertaining to freedom of expression and section 8, which protects against unreasonable search and seizure.
Although Justice Mosley’s decision came down against the use of the Emergencies Act, he noted that at the outset of the proceedings, he was leaning toward saying it was justified. He said he sympathizes with the position of the government officials who made the decision to use it.
“Had I been at their tables at that time, I may have agreed that it was necessary to invoke the Act,” he wrote. He said he has the advantage of hindsight. He concluded, however, that the use of the act “was not justified in relation to the relevant factual and legal constraints that were required to be taken into consideration.”
He said the CCF and CCLA played a critical role in informing his decision.
“This case may not have turned out the way it has without their involvement, as the private interest litigants were not as capable of marshalling the evidence and argument in support of their applications,” Justice Mosley wrote.
Impacts of the Ruling
The impacts of the decision will mainly be political, lawyers including Mr. Dehaas and Mr. Wudrick said.
“It’s probably very unwelcome for a government that’s desperately trying to find some good news. They’ve got enough bad news on their plate,” Mr. Wudrick said. The Liberals have seen a dip in the polls with the Conservatives on the rise.
In terms of public opinion on the matter, Mr. Wudrick said people who didn’t like the Freedom Convoy tend to support the use of the Emergencies Act and those who liked the Freedom Convoy are likely to be against the use of the act.
“I think that’s the complete wrong way to look at this,” he said. “This is really about whether a government acted within the law. … It doesn’t matter what they’re using this tool for, if they’re breaking the law to use it, it’s still wrong.”
Constitutional lawyer Leighton Grey of Alberta compared the decision to other rulings against federal overreach, as Ms. Smith did.
“It’s part of a series of legal decisions that are forming a body of law in this country, and I’m very pleased to see it,” Mr. Grey told The Epoch Times. “Governments—especially the federal government, but not exclusively them—have been really ruling by emergency,” he said.
“It seems as though everything today is an emergency, whether it’s COVID, or it’s climate,” he continued. “That’s a very dangerous thing, because it grants to governments a power to basically rule by fiat.”
John Carpay, president of the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms, told The Epoch Times the decision will restrain officials considering such actions in the future.
“It’s a warning to governments in the future,” he said.
END
CANADA
BOC Keeps Rates Unchanged At 5% As Expected, Signals End Of Rate Hikes
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 10:02 AM
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% for a fourth consecutive meeting, a pause that was widely expected, and explicitly stated for the first time that it was done with the tightening cycle and won’t need to increase it again if the economy evolves in line with its forecasts. BOC officials said the data show economic growth has stalled and will remain slow in the near term, which will help bring inflation back to the bank’s 2% target next year.
The Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation.
Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.
Inflation is coming down as higher interest rates restrain demand in the economy.
Inflation is still too high, and underlying inflationary pressures persist – BoC needs to give these higher rates time to do their work.
The biggest highlight4 however was the removal of the language that the BOC was “prepared to raise rates further if needed” as the following statement redline shows:
“There was a clear consensus to maintain our policy rate at 5%,” BOC Governor Macklem said in his prepared opening remarks for a news conference scheduled for 10:30 a.m. Ottawa time. “What came through in the deliberations is that Governing Council’s discussion about future policy is shifting from whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to how long to maintain the current restrictive stance.”
The dovish message is the clearest hint yet that the bank sees a rapidly slowing economy and believes its past rate increases, some 475 basis points in less than two years, are sufficient to quell inflation. That also opens the door to rate cuts in coming months.
“If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain the policy rate at 5%,” Macklem said, suggesting that just like the Fed, the question now is when the BOC will cut.
As Bloomberg notes, Mecklem reiterated the need to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening, but also noted concerns about the persistence of underlying price pressures, warning that policymakers haven’t ruled out further rate increases if new developments push inflation higher. Still, as noted above, the BOC removed language from its previous policy statements that said it remained prepared to hike again.
Officials want to see “further and sustained easing” in core inflation and will continue to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing activity, the bank said in its statement.
Its forecasts suggest the economy is now in “modest excess supply” and it trimmed its economic growth projection to 0.8% this year, from 0.9%. Still, the Bank of Canada’s base case remains a soft landing, with growth picking up around the middle of the year.
The central bank also expects inflation to remain close to 3% over the first half of 2024 before declining to around 2.5% by the end of the year and returning to the bank’s 2% target next year. Here are the bank’s full projections:
CPI:
2023 CPI: 3.9% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 3.9%)
2024 CPI: 2.8% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 3.0%)
2025 CPI: 2.2% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 2.2%)
GDP:
2023 GDP GROWTH: 1.0% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 1.2%)
2024 GDP GROWTH: 0.8% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 0.9%)
2025 GDP GROWTH: 2.4% (vs BoC prev. forecast of 2.5%)
Neutral Rate/Output Gap
The BoC estimates that the midpoint of the neutral range in 2-3% (prev. 2-3%.)
The BoC estimates that the output gap is between -0.25% and -1.25% (prev. -0.75% and 0.25%)
The CPI accelerated to a 3.4% yearly pace in December, and has been stuck above the 3% cap of the central bank’s target operating band for 32 of the past 33 months. A closely watched measure of the Bank of Canada’s preferred core metrics also spiked.
“Over the projection horizon, ongoing excess supply in the economy continues to weigh on prices, and corporate pricing behavior and inflation expectations gradually return to normal,” the bank said in its monetary policy report.
Wage growth, which is still rising at a 4% to 5% yearly pace, is expected to slow, falling closer in line with inflation and modest productivity growth, the bank said.
Shelter price inflation, however, is expected to remain “elevated for some time,” with growth in mortgage interest costs seen slowing gradually as financial conditions ease and the impact of additional households renewing and taking on new mortgages decreases. Rental price inflation, which is supported by strong demand for housing and tight supply, is forecast to moderate due to a slowdown in population growth and an expected increase in new housing construction.
Still, a stronger-than-expected rise in house prices is one of the main risks that could drive inflation higher than expected, the bank said.
As Bloomberg notes, canada’s economy is more rate-sensitive than its peers due to higher debt loads and shorter-duration mortgages. Most economists see the Bank of Canada cutting the policy rate by June, and traders in overnight swaps are placing similar bets.
In kneejerk response, despite the BoC sounding cautious on inflation, the decision to delete language that it is prepared to raise rates further if needed, saw upside in USD/CAD with the pair jumping from 1.3435 to 1.3450 before extending the move to 1.3459.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0894 UP .0034
USA/ YEN 147.27 DOWN 0.976 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2732 UP .0041
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3455 DOWN .0001 (CDN DOLLAR UP 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 49.80 PTS OR 1.80%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 545.89 PTS OR 3.56%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.08% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 545.89 PTS OR 3.56%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 49.80 PTS OR 1.80%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 291.09 OR 0.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2033.65
silver:$22.77
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.92 DOWN 48 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1528
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1547)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.707…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.149% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.3710 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.349 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 47.66 PTS OR 0.64%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 266.20 PTS OR 1.60%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 70.30 PTS OR 0.95%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 110.20 PTS OR 1.12%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 231.86 PTS OR 0.77%
WTI Oil price 75.09 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.95 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.65; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 4//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3355 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0390 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0854 UP .0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2722 UP .0031 or 31 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0330 UP 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.795%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.58 DOWN 0.645//YEN UP 65 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3522 UP 0.0066 CDN dollar DOWN 66 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.26
Brent OIL: 80.09
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.181%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.445%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.378%
USA dollar index: 103.07 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.24 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.761UP 0 AND 9/100 roubles
GOLD 2013.20 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.67 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 98.60 PTS OR 0.26%
NASDAQ UP 95.09 PTS OR 0.55%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.94 UP .39 PTS OR 3.11%
GLD: $186,40 DOWN 1.55 OR 0.82%
SLV/ $20.71 UP ,18 OR 0.88%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Big-Tech Bid, Bonds & Bullion Battered As ‘Better’ Data Made Doves Cry
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 – 04:00 PM
European PMIs screamed stagflation (weaker growth and rebounding prices) but US PMIs unexpectedly ripped (for all the wrong reasons – no longer lead-times are not a sign of demand outstripping supply, it’s a sign of the shitshow in the Red Sea and storm-shutdowns in the US slamming supply chains).
Disruption-driven increases in supplier lead-times are not – we repeat not – a positive… After the debacle during the COVID lockdown supply-chain collapse (and soaring PMIs), you’d think they’d figured this shit out by now!!
Source: Bloomberg
But no one cared to look below the surface. That ‘strength’ sent rate-cut expectations (and the odds of a March rate-cut) reeling hawkishly lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, the market’s expectations for ECB cuts in 2024 has converged with expectations for The Fed (while BoE expectations are pushing notably hawkish)…
Source: Bloomberg
The hawkishness spread to bond-land (not helped by an ugly 5Y auction) with yields up across the curve (long-end underperforming 30Y +4bps, 2Y +1bps) after overnight buying…
Source: Bloomberg
The 5Y briefly broke down below 4.00% ahead of today’s ugly auction but ended 11bps off the lows of the day…
Source: Bloomberg
And that sent bear-steepened the curve (2s30s), dis-inverting it once again…
Source: Bloomberg
And that lack of dovishness slammed gold back below its 50DMA ($2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dived overnight buit was bid during the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
The higher yields hit stocks broadly speaking but traders sought the safe-haven of mega-cap tech, enabling Nasdaq to close green. The S&P barely held on to gains as Small Caps lagged (and The Dow closed red)…
‘Most Shorted’ stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today. This is the first day in a week that did not see an afternoon re-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
As MAG7 stocks ripped (NFLX) then dipped a bit…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed gains, but was unable to hold above $40,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil rallied up to one-month highs, breaking out of its YTD range…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the big news overnight was China’s surprise RRR cut (after it promised trillions of yuan in rescue for stocks the day before and banned short-selling the day before)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and while 0-DTE traders weren’t playing along, traditional options traders were buying Calls (and covering puts) with both hands and feet today, with someone large stepping in around 1400ET…
Utility Bill Debt For Americans Hits Record As Heating Homes Now Seen As Luxury
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 10:00 PM
The Biden administration has whined for months about the public’s negative views on the economy, arguing that people are operating on “false perceptions influenced by right-wing media.”
Most Americans have figured out that government officials and the corporate media have a habit of misrepresenting economic data to convince the public that the economy has never been better.
Last June, the White House unleashed a media campaign with corporate media to blast out the message that “Bidenomics” worked and the economy has never been better. But polling data from Real Clear Politics shows that despite the PR blitz, the president’s polling data went down.
People know when their wallets are hurting, and gaslighting them has not been effective.
Yet another data point released Tuesday supports the public’s position that the nation is less prosperous than the government would like us to believe.
Bloomberg cites a new report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that reveals US household utility debt hit a record as an alarming number of Americans can no longer afford heating and cooling their homes.
NEADA said one out of every six ratepayers is behind on energy bills, adding residential utility debt hit a new record last year of $20.3 billion.
The group, representing state-level directors of low-income utility assistance programs, pointed out household heating costs have soared 20% since the start of Covid.
Folks in New York and Michigan have been impacted the most by soaring energy bills, the report said. As of Sept. 30, there were more than 7 million households on utility bill assistance.
Looking at the US CPI Northeast Urban Household Energy index, a basket of household fuels, such as propane, kerosene, and firewood, as well as electricity prices, remains near record highs.
Meanwhile, more than 60% of Americans reported that their wages were lagging well behind inflation.
People are voting with their empty wallets – and are not thrilled with lies coming from the White House.
Select politicians, government officials, economic elites, and experts arriving at the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland were greeted with an open letter signed by more than 250 billionaires and millionaires.
The signers request their respective governments raise their taxes.
The letter signers are concerned about “inequality” that they say “has reached a tipping point.”
The cost of this inequality “to our economic, societal and ecological stability risk,” the letter continues, “is severe — and growing every day.”
They may have a point. Since the 2008 market meltdown, resentment against those at the top of the income ladder has been growing. However, this is not because people are envious of those able to profit in a free market.
Rather, the resentment is rooted in the corporatist system that rewards those who manipulate the political process.
If the signatories to the letter want to truly end the type of inequality that fuels populist rage, they should stop calling for tax increases and instead call for an end to government programs and policies that benefit the rich and powerful.
Included are programs like the Export-Import Bank that subsidize large corporations, health and safety regulations that cartelize markets while failing to protect consumers, and interventionist foreign policy that enriches the military-industrial complex while making the rest of us poorer and more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
The Federal Reserve is the leading cause of inequality. This is not surprising considering it was created at the behest of bankers and rushed through Congress just before Christmas when few Americans were paying attention. Many Americans became aware of how the central bank tailors its policies to benefit the financial elites following the 2008 meltdown. Then, the US government, enabled by Fed money printing, bailed out large financial institutions while average Americans suffered.
The Fed had been helping big firms for many years. In the 1990s it was common for the Federal Reserve, then under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, to pump money into the market in response to apparent crises. This was named the “Greenspan put” by the financial press. The new money would help some companies and their wealthy owners, while reducing most Americans’ purchasing power.
Middle- and working-class Americans suffer the brunt of inflation, which is properly defined as the central bank pumping money into the economy thus reducing the dollar’s purchasing power.
In a free market, most people will be able to have a satisfactory standard of living and recognize that the “super rich” earned their fortunes by offering goods and services that served the needs and wants of consumers while providing good jobs at good wages to fellow citizens. In contrast, in a “mixed economy” supported by a fiat money system, the average person will suffer a steady erosion of his standard of living thanks to the central bank’s inflationary policies, while the crony capitalists prosper. This is a recipe for social instability.
Those concerned with the detrimental effects of rising resentment of income inequality should support repealing all federal programs that reward crony capitalists — including programs masquerading as providing national defense.
They should also work to audit then end the Fed.
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
My goodness: this was caught on tape!
(zerohedge)
Kari Lake Demands Resignation Of “Corrupt” GOP Chair Caught Trying To Bribe Her
TUESDAY, JAN 23, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake called on the state’s GOP chair Jeff DeWit to resign after a recording emerged of him trying to bribe Lake to stay out of politics for two years.
In the recording, first reported by the Daily Mail, DeWit, 51, can be heard asking lake to name her price not to run.
“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” he can be heard telling her in a conversation recorded last March.
He then, after asking her not to mention the conversation to anyone, makes his first offer:
“So the ask I got today from back east was: “Is there any companies out there or something that could just put her on the payroll to keep her out?“
Lake is taken aback.
“This is about defeating Trump and I think that’s a bad, bad thing for our country,” she replied.
DeWit later framed it in a different way.
“Just say, is there a number at which –
“I can be bought?” Lake interjected. “That’s what it’s about?”
“You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing,” DeWit replied.
Lake repeatedly shuts him down, and says she wouldn’t pull out for a billion dollars.
“This is not about money, it’s about our country,” she says (one her own recording, we’re guessing).
Following the report, Lake called on DeWit to resign.
“He’s gotta resign. We can’t have somebody who is corrupt and compromised running the Republican Party,” she told an NBC reporterduring Trump’s New Hampshire primary victory party.
What say you now Eric Garcia, senior Washington Correspondent of The Independent?
THE KING REPORT
The King Report January 24, 2024 Issue 7165
Independent View of the News
China Mulls Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion – BBG 20:57 ET (Monday) Policymakers are seeking to mobilise about 2 trillion yuan ($278.53 billion), mainly from offshore accounts of state-owned enterprises, as part of a stabilisation fund to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link… Chinese stocks rose immediately after the report but reversed course later to slip lower and were last broadly flat… https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-weighs-stock-market-rescue-package-backed-by-278-bln-bloomberg-news-2024-01-23/
China expanding stock selling restrictions to insurers – BBG China is expanding its net stock selling ban from major mutual funds to some insurers, another sign that authorities are trying to support the slumping stock market, said people familiar with the matter. Regulators issued the so-called window guidance to at least two state-owned insurance firms on Monday, telling them to refrain from selling more onshore shares than they purchased, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-expanding-stock-selling-restrictions-to-insurers-sources-say-1.2025238
Chinese stocks soared on the above news. However, ESHs rallied only 3 handles.
Hang Seng China Stock Gauge Extends Gain to 3.5% – BBG (Closed +2.63%)
The CSI 300 closed +0.40%; the Shanghai Composite +0.53%; Shenzhen Composite +0.95%
ESHs waffled between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening until the rally, and pump & dump, for the NYSE opening commenced near 8:14 ET. ESHs hit a daily high of 4891.75 at 8:38 ET. Sellers got aggressive; ESHs sank to a daily low of 4874.25 at 11:33 ET.
With Old World trader liquidation out of the way, US traders aggressively bought ESHs, driving them to 4886.25 at 14:01 ET. After a retreat to 4881.75 at 14:26 ET, ESHs exploded higher; traders wanted to get long for expected great Netflix results that were due on the NYSE close. ESHs hit new daily highs by 15:08 ET. ESHs hit a daily high of 4896.00 at 15:12 ET. ESHs retreated to 4889.50 at 15:32 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESHs to 4897.00 at 15:56 ET and then eased lower into the close.
3M stock suffering biggest selloff (as much as 13%) in 5 years after 2024 profit warning – DJ The company expects 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $9.35 to $9.75, compare with the current FactSet EPS consensus of $9.90… Excluding nonrecurring items… adjusted EPS rose to $2.42 from $2.18 to beat the FactSet consensus of $2.31. Total sales fell 0.8% to $8.01 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $7.69 billion… (3M blames ‘macroeconomic uncertainty’ for lower EPS guidance) https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240123129/3ms-stock-suffering-biggest-selloff-in-5-years-after-2024-profit-warning
D.R. Horton Slides Most (as much as 9.9%) Since 2020 after Miss on Home Orders – BBG Forecast for sales in its full fiscal year… 87,00 to 90,000 homes, up from its prediction in November of 86,000 to 89,000 closings. Analysts… expected better…
US Economic Data released on Tuesday Jan Phil Fed Services Index -3.7; prior 2.1 revised lower from 6.3 Jan Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -15 (Lowest since May 2020 Covid panic), -8 exp., -11 prior Jay Richmond Fed Business Conditions -3, prior 0 After the robust rally on Monday, no one surfaced to manipulate USHs higher ahead of the $60.0B Treasury auction of 2-year notes. The auction was flat: 4.365%, the same as the WI. USHs hit a daily low of 119 20/32 (-1 3/32) 9 minutes before the 13:00 ET auction. USHs rallied a few ticks and went flat.
Positive aspects of previous session The S&P 500 Index hit another all-time high; Nasdaq rallied robustly on Fang buying
Negative aspects of previous session 3M generated a DJIA decline Bonds declined sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session S&P 500 results have been mixed so far.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4858.48 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4866.48; 4844.37
@kevinnbass: Newly resurfaced interview – Fauci: “It’s been proven that when you make it difficult for people in their lives, they lose their ideological bull$#it and they get vaccinated.” https://t.co/vqaQlNVEd2
After the close, Netflix reported an EPS miss, 2.11 vs 2.19 consensus. However, NFLX soared 6% in after-hour trading because it added 13.1 million new subscribers. NFLX now has 260m+ subscribers.
Texas Instruments tumbled as much as 6% in after-hour trading after it said Q1 sales will be $3.45B to $3.75B; $4.09B was consensus. EPS will be .96 to 1.16; 1.42 was consensus. Other chipmakers sank.
Today – After a needed respite and retrenchment on Tuesday, traders will play for a rally, emboldened by the hope that Tesla results will be positive for stocks, and the start of Fangs’ reporting season. The US Treasury will auction $61.0B of 5-year notes.
Expected Economic Data: Jan S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 47.6, Services 51.4, Composite 51
ESHs are +8.50; USHs are +5/32; and Feb AU is +2.40 at 20:56 ET.
Expected earnings: APH .77, T .55, TXT 1.53, FCX .24, ABT 1.19, GD 3.74, KMB 1.53, IBM 3.76, PKG 1.82, TSLA .73, CSX .44, URI 10.71, LVS .62
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4657; 100-day MA: 4500; 150-day MA: 4487; 200-day MA: 4411 DJIA 50-day MA: 36,4567; 100-day MA: 35,209; 150-day MA: 35,032; 200-day MA: 34,672 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4532.43 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4771.85 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4836.46 triggers a sell signal
News organizations have called New Hampshire for Trump; the margin is not yet determined.
@CollinRugg: Naperville, Illinois Councilman Josh McBroom calls on liberals who support open borders to host illegal immigrants in their homes. “We do have a very affluent community, a lot of big homes, and what I’d like to do is direct staff to create a signup sheet for individuals that would be willing to house migrant families.” “I think we need to find out who would be willing to house migrant families.” https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1749836792877154572
NFL’s referee decision opens league up to Taylor Swift controversy With Shawn Smith set to be an official at the AFC Championship Game… who has a tendency to favor the team on the road, it has been pointed out that the NFL is opening itself up to Taylor Swift conspiracy theories… “And it certainly doesn’t help with conspiracy theories that the NFL would like nothing more than to see new Chiefs #1 fan Taylor Swift and her legendary fan base of the Swifties in the Super Bowl and buying up all the Super Bowl merchandise,” NFL analyst Warren Sharp wrote on his website… According to Sharp’s data, the numbers change with Smith on the field. The home team’s win rate drops from 55.9% to 40.8% and the home team goes from covering the spread 50.1% to 37% of the time… (Stunningly anomalous results that warrant an investigation!) https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/sports/nfls-referee-decision-opens-themselves-up-to-taylor-swift-theories/
CNN plunges behind History Channel, obscure Western network in prime time ratingshttps://trib.al/Am97TOY
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has correctly predicted every presidential race since the 1980’s with his “Socrates” data mining program. The 2024 race, featuring Donald J. Trump, is shaping up to be the most lopsided race for the White House in history. Armstrong explains, “Trump should win. This data has even shocked me, and it’s been right on every election and even Brexit. It’s basically showing, out of 6 models, it is showing four basically all for Trump, but two of them are showing absolute unbelievable landslides. It’s showing 61% for Trump. . . . The computer has never come up before with this complete gap . . . . In 2016, it showed Trump would win, but not overwhelming, but this one is absolutely stunning.”
Many say that they can stop Trump by cheating more than in 2020. Armstrong is seeing that the margins are so big they cannot cheat enough to fill the gap. Armstrong contends, “That’s the way it is shaping up. If you look at the polls on confidence in government, even Europe is down to only 30% of the people trust government anymore. We are looking at a serious collapse in the confidence of government on every level you want to look at. Our computer also shows that this election is not going to be accepted by the other side. . . . Honestly, I have never seen our computer project such a landslide. . . . The Biden Administration, in all honesty, is a complete disaster.”
Armstrong says interest rates are going to continue to edge up along with the federal debt. Armstrong points out, “If you pay attention, Fed Head Jay Powell came out in the beginning of December, and he actually said, ‘The spending is unsustainable.’ The Federal Reserve does not criticize the current administration. For him to say this, you know it is getting bad. This says the Fed knows we have a problem here. The higher rates go, the more unstable the banks become. . . . We are in a sovereign debt crisis now.”
How will they pay all this back? Armstrong says, “I think they want to deliberately start a war, and the way they get out of the debt crisis . . . . I think they will refuse to pay all the debt that China holds. That’s it. Any enemy that holds US debt, they are simply not going to pay it.”
Armstrong also says there is a plan to run Michelle Obama in place of Joe Biden for President in 2024. Again, Armstrong says that is not going to stop a Trump landslide. There is also talk of the UN and the WHO taking control of the world in the next medical crisis or pandemic. Armstrong’s computers do not see that working out either. Armstrong does see a peak in global disease and sickness in 2026. Armstrong points out that could be a combination of the nearly 14 billion global CV19 vax injections and some new disease unleashed on the public, too. Armstrong also sees a Deep State that is so desperate to beat Trump that “it will start a war in August or September” just before the November election. Armstrong says that the Deep State is so evil that even if Trump does win, they will get him involved in a world war that will not be easy to walk back. Armstrong says the biggest fear his global clients have is World War III getting started before Trump can get back into office.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 2-minute in-depth interview.
If you are looking to buy physical gold and silver coins, check out our sponsor Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.
IDF soldiers of Division 98 in Khan Yunis, January 22, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Bailiwick News
Police face off with Freedom Convoy demonstrators in Ottawa on Feb. 19, 2022. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)
harveyorganblog.com 
