SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTE

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

SHANGHAI OVER COMEX: PREMIUM OF $36.00

Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.

AUTO-REFRESH IS OFF

Last Updated 26 Jan 2024 11:27:37 AM CT.

Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.

MONTH	LAST	CHANGE	PRIOR SETTLE	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	VOLUME	UPDATED
JAN 2024 SGUF4	–	–	2056.1	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
FEB 2024 SGUG4	2070.9	+4.3 (+0.21%)	2066.6	2070.9	2070.9	2070.9	9	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
MAR 2024 SGUH4	–	–	2077.1	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
APR 2024 SGUJ4	–	–	2077.0	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
JUN 2024 SGUM4	–	–	2077.6	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
AUG 2024 SGUQ4	–	–	2078.2	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
OCT 2024 SGUV4	–	–	2078.8	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024
DEC 2024 SGUZ4	–	–	2079.4	–	–	–	0	10:50:01 CT 26 Jan 2024

About this Report

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,714.30 DOWN 6.95 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 272023)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1589,14 DOWN 1,00 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023

*EURO GOLD: 1859.65DOWN 3.40 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,016.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/25/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 01/29/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL 257
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 29
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 74
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 199
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 11
880 H CITIGROUP 500

TOTAL: 541 541
MONTH TO DATE: 6,763

JPMorgan stopped 0/541 contracts.

FOR JAN.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 541 NOTICES FOR 54,100 OZ or 1.682 TONNES

total notices so far: 6763 contracts for 676,300 Oz (21.035 tonnes)

FOR JANUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 46 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 230,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1155 for 5,775,000 oz

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $.10

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

SLV//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.03 CENTS AT THE SLV//

MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 446.680 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 713 CONTRACTS TO 136,513 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT A CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A HUGE 857 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 857 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.03), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 13 CONTRACTS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A VERY STRONG SIZED 700 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 6.650 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 235,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP NEW TOTALS 6.840 MILLION OZ//

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.840 MILLION OZ

//FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 857 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 317 CONTRACTS //

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 days, total 14,087 contracts: OR 70.435 MILLION OZ (782 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 70.435 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 70.435 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 713 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 700 ISSUED FOR FEB AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN. OF 6.665 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 235,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 5.840 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD EX. FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR FOR 1.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS; 6.840 MILLION OZ/

NEW STANDING 6.840 million OZ /// WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN OF 304 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 857 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (857) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .

WE HAD 46 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 230,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5881 CONTRACTS TO 461,422 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 98 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5881 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.50 GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN. AT 8.214 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 54,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 21.073 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $2.50 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1510 OI CONTRACTS (4.696) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4371 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 461,324

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1510 CONTRACTS WITH 5,881 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4371 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1510 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 2659 CONTRACTS.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4371 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5881) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1510 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN AT 8.214 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 54,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 21.073 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS.// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2659 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 80,039 CONTRACTS OR 8,003,900 OZ OR 248.95 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4446 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 248.95 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 248.95/3550 x 100% TONNES 7.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24: 248.95 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 713 CONTRACTS OI TO 136,513 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MARCH 700 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 396 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 13 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.065 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $.03 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.11 PTS OR 0.14% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 259.73 PTS OR 1.60% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 485.40 OR 1.34% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.48% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1745 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1841 /Oil UP TO 76.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.82/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5881 CONTRACTS TO 461,324 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.50 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. WE MUST HAVE HAD ZERO LONG SPEC LIQUIDATIONS IN THE COMEX SESSION WITH SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS AT THE HIGHER PRICES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4371 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : FEB 4371 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4371 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1510 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4371 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5881 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.50 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 2,659 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JAN (21.073 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

JAN ’24. 21.073 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $2.50 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1510 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AT HIGHER PRICES.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 4.696 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN. (8,214 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 54,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (1.685 TONNES): NEW TOTAL STANDING 19.387 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.50

WE HAD – REMOVED 98 CONTRACT TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1510 CONTRACTS OR 1,510,00 OZ OR 4.696 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 199,419 fair

final gold volumes/yesterday 298,583 very good

//speculators have left the gold arena

JAN 26 INITIAL

/ /// THE JAN 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	86,132.532 OZ brinks JPMorgan 2667 kilobars and 12 kilobars .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	64,227,492 oz ASAHI
No of oz served (contracts) today	541 notice(s) 54100 OZ 1.682 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	12 contracts 1200 oz 0.0373 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	6763 notices 676,300 oz 21.035 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 2

i)out of asahi: 1168.75 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 85,746.720 oz (2667 kilobars)

iii) Out of JPMorgan: 385.812 oz (12 kilobars

total withdrawals 86,132.532 oz (2679 tonnes)

we had 1 customer deposits

i)Into ASAHI: 64,227.492 oz

total deposits 64,227.492 oz

Adjustments; 1 dealer to customer

a) Malca: 64,337.157 oz (2001 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JAN.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 553 contracts having GAINED 307 contracts. We had 235 notices served on THURSDAY, so we gained A WHOPPING 542 contracts or an additional 54200 oz will stand for delivery at the comex .

FEB LOST 34,569 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 89,681. WE HAVE 5 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.

March LOST 28 contracts to stand at 876.

APRIL GAINED 27,908 CONTRACTS RISING TO 303,236.

We had 541 contracts filed for today representing 54,100 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 541 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6763 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (553 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 541 x 100 oz per contract equals 677,500 OZ OR 21.073 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN. contract month: No of notices filed so far (6763) x 100 oz + (553) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (541) x 100 oz) which equals 677,500 oz standing OR 21.073 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: 21.073 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,326,338.282 41.25 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,598,245.765 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,948,340.067 (278.33 tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,649,905.698 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,622,002 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 237,07 tonnes

END

SILVER/COMEX

JAN 26/INITIAL

//2024// THE JAN 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,292,317,139 oz ASAHI .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	749,193.700 oz CNT Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	46 CONTRACT(S) (230,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	13 contracts (65,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1155 Contracts (5,775,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 deposits customer account:

i) Into Loomis: 598,265.410 oz

ii) Into CNT; 150,928.290 oz

total customer deposits 749,193.700 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.341 million oz/276,216 million or 47.46%

adjustment: 2

i) ASAHI: 593,456.226 oz removed

ii) Dealer to customer Brinks 360,674.820 oz

Comex withdrawals: 1

i) Out of ASAHI 1,202,317.130 oz

total withdrawal: 1,202,317.130 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 41.579 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276,216 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN. /2023 OI: 59 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 180 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 227 NOTICES SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 47 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 235,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX

FEB GAINED 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 716

MARCH LOST 1974 CONTRACTS TO 101,349

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 46 for 230,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 45,059 fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 61,665 GOOD

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1155 x 5,000 oz = 5,775,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (59) and the number of notices served upon today 46 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the JAN/2024 contract month: 1155 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JAN. (59) – number of notices served upon today (46 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates to 5.840 MILLION OZ. to which we add our exchange for RISK of 1.0 million oz//new total 6.804 million oz/

New total standing: 6.840 million oz.

There are 41.579 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 858.93 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ

JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS

DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 446.680 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Bonds Away: Rate-Cuts & Junk-Debt In 2024

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 01:40 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s last round of hikes would lead you to believe.

As Marc Faber pointed out late last year:

“If money was tight, the spread between junk bonds and Treasuries would be much wider. It hasn’t widened much…So, I think the monetary policies are still inflationary at the present time.”

Indeed, the Chicago Fed’s current National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) continues to confirm this, with numbers still in the negative range indicating relatively loose financial conditions as we start 2024:

And the Fed’s confidence in its mastery of an infinitely complex economy is, as usual, misplaced. But investors are responding to the rate cut news with a refreshed interest in junk debt as spreads remain relatively narrow. Reuters reported earlier this month:

“Junk bond spreads, or the premium investors charge over U.S. Treasuries for taking on the risk, have on average tightened 38 basis points since September to 343 basis points…”

There has been an unusual disconnect between spreads and dollar prices, as described recently by Lord Abbett’s Riz Hussain:

“Treasury yields typically have rallied (on factors such as a flight to the safety of U.S. government debt, expectations of Fed easing, etc.)…We’ve had just the opposite this time around. Specifically, given the worries around persistent inflation that have not vexed investors for many decades to the same extent, the correlation of U.S. Treasury bond prices and risk assets has flipped to positive.”

Bullish bond traders are now starting to bet on lower US Treasury yields in response to expected rate cuts in 2024. For junk bonds issued by companies with low credit ratings, a lower cost of borrowing could lend a sigh of relief by increasing the relative attractiveness of their low-rated corporate debt.

The question is whether or not investors will respond by being even more willing to shoulder the higher risk of junk bonds in pursuit of higher returns, compressing yield spread, or if they will step back in recognition of broader economic weaknesses and become risk-averse despite a lower interest rate environment.

Widening fiscal deficits, new rounds of money printing to finance a rapidly expanding Middle East war, and accelerating global de-dollarization are only a few of the dangerous economic trends shaping up for 2024.

A lower cost of borrowing often provides relief for companies that have been squeezed by higher interest rates, but if a collapsing dollar causes increased costs and a debt that’s harder to service, it could also contribute to a wave of defaults. This is particularly true for companies in more inflation-sensitive industries.

But higher inflation doesn’t necessarily mean more corporate defaults, especially as the use of leverage decreases. The question is whether or not other risks have sufficiently destabilized the broader system to cause an unraveling. Riz Hussain at Lord Abbett doesn’t think so:

“…we believe at least part of the resilience we have seen in high yield credit this year can be attributable to supportive fundamental factors that surface in a higher inflation and nominal growth environment.”

Hussain expects that resilience to continue, but also doesn’t expect inflation to worsen significantly in 2024 — a forecast I’m not nearly as confident about. If inflation starts to heat up enough that the Fed reverses course on cutting rates, companies with low credit ratings could see lowered demand for their debt. This seems unlikely, however, as the Fed has little choice but to start cutting rates now despite it being too little, too late to prevent a “hard landing” for the fragile economy.

But if inflation starts looking really bad, maybe the Fed will just look for rosier ways to present it. When the sum perception of economic well-being becomes so dependent on Central Bank data and FOMC announcements, there’s a natural incentive to make that data look as positive as possible. Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management said as much in a recent CNBC article about declining Treasury yields, all without much hint of concern for the implications:

“I’ve never really seen a market, in a very long time, that hinges so much on economic data coming out…The market just clings to every single piece…And it keeps cheering it along.”

The trouble is, no matter what the Fed says or how accurate the data it presents is, economic reality always has a way of rearing its head as the chickens of monetary policy inevitably come home to roost. If we encounter a full-blown recession combined with runaway inflation, junk bonds could be some of the hardest-hit assets.

END

2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

MATHEW PIEPENBURG

The US Is Living on Borrowed Time

Matthew Piepenburg
January 26, 2024

In late December, I published a final report on the themes of 2023 while looking ahead at their implications for the year to come.

I repeated my claim that debt markets and debt levels made the future of Fed policies, currency moves, rate markets and gold’s endgame fairly clear to see.

Of course, as facts change, opinions change as well.

But the facts are only worsening, which means my opinions in late 2023 are only growing stronger as we conclude the first month of 2024.

Then as now, the debt-soaked US is tilting ever more toward policies which will weaken its currency, wound its middleclass and reward its false idols (and false markets) with even greater desperation.

In particular, some recent facts below are emerging which further support my otherwise sad conviction that the American economy (not to be confused with its Fed-supported stock exchanges) is literally living on borrowed time.

The Latest Bits of Crazy from the CBO

Almost a year ago to date, I was shaking my head and rubbing my eyes as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced a staggering $422B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2023.

Now that’s a lot of borrowing in a short amount of time…

For some strange reason, this bothered me in early 2023, as I was still under this odd impression that debt, and hence deficits, actually mattered.

Fast forward to January 2024, and that same CBO has just announced a $509B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2024.

Folks, that adds up to annual deficit run rate of $2.2T.

Please: Re-read that last line again.

Do the Math: DC is Getting Even Dumber

In this 12-month interim, fiscal revenues did increase by about 8%, but outlays (i.e., expenses) for that same period rose by 12%, which is just a mathematical way of saying that either: 1) Uncle Sam is out of his mind in debt; or 2) that I am out of my mind in common sense.

But it seems I’m not the alone in saying out loud what no one DC can say to themselves, namely: The US is now in an open and obvious debt spiral.

Uncle Sam’s embarrassing bar tab of debt is now racing at a rate that far exceeds his GDP, pushing the deficit to GDP ratio toward 8% and higher–ratios we’ve never seen except during the GFC of 2008 and the “COVID” (i.e., hidden bond) crisis of 2020.

From Debt Spiral to Super QE

If recent memory serves me correctly, in both of those embarrassing years (and ratios), what followed was QE to the moon and the ongoing fantasy that every debt problem can be solved with trillions of fiat dollars mouse-clicked out of thin air.

And this time around will likely be no different, as I and others like Luke Gromen have been warning week after week, and month after month.

Such warnings, which NO ONE can time, are not merely bearish “opinions” and don’t require a crystal ball or sensational guessing.

They just require a calculator and a basic understanding of history.

Simple Math

As to basic math, one can have their own opinions but not their own facts, and the facts (i.e., math) tell us that the current cost of servicing the aforementioned debt is 16% of Federal tax receipts.

Again: Please re-read that last line. It matters, because, well…debt destroys nations.

Nor am I alone in this sober understanding.

As the former head of European block trading at Goldman Sachs, Alex Harfouche, just warned, these sickening debt ratios mean the US economy’s ability to shoulder such debt is both “horrible” and “crippling.”

Which means we all know (or should know) what’s coming next.

The Patterns of the Foolish

As in 2008 and 2020, we can now see a pattern playing out in 2024, namely an inevitable shift from rate hikes and pauses toward rate cuts and the inevitable shift from QT to QE.

Why inevitable?

Because stupidity combined with a Will to Power that would make Nietzsche blush are the profile traits of nearly all math-ignorant but ego-savvy policy makers seeking re-election or a Nobel Prize in Economics (fiction?).

That is, and especially in an election year, policy makers will not cut spending but increase it in a desperate bid to bribe the gullible masses into a Pavlovian voting pattern based on generations of political over-promising and grotesque under-delivering.

This political inability to cut entitlement spending makes a US debt spiral (and hence QE to the moon) as foreseeable as the NY Yankees beating my high-school baseball team.

DC Cutting Rates Rather than Spending

Furthermore, since the DC children running our country into the ground won’t cut spending, the only thing they can (and will) cut is interest rates.

Why?

Because cutting rates not only takes pressure off Uncle Sam’s IOUs (USTs), but also eases the pain of those complicit S&P zombies staring down the barrel of over $740B in debt rollovers in 2024.

Main Street Screwed Again

Remember: The Fed serves TBTF banks and exchanges, not citizens and their realities.

Interest rate cuts + QE = a further debased USD and rising inflation (with a deflationary recession in the middle).

And this means the voters on Main Street are about to feel the darker side of DC’s real mandate: Covering their own A$$’es while keeping Wall Street on a respirator.

Meanwhile, the masses feel pain, but can’t quite see from where it’s coming, as the media, MMT hucksters and political Ken and Barbies keep telling them that deficits don’t matter.

Deficits Don’t Matter?

EEven worse, there are those sitting in private wealth management suites smugly reminding their clients that Japan is in much worse debt (see below) than Uncle Sam, and if Japan can muddle through, certainly the US has nothing to fear.

But as I recently reminded the attendees at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Japan does not have twin deficits, a negative 65% Net International Investment Position nor an externally financed bond market.

In short: Japan aint America. But even if it were, it’s nothing of which to boast…

Whistling Past the Debt Graveyard with More Spending

Like Luke Gromen, I am of the sober and math-based view that unless the US cuts entitlement and defense spending by 40% (unthinkable in an election year and a world of beating [US?] war drums almost everywhere), such austerity is about as likely as an honest man in Congress…

Failing such needed cuts and sound budget honesty, policy makers will merely whistle past another year of multi-trillion deficit levels and pass the bill on to current and future generations while inflating their way out of debt with more of the debased money in your pockets.

As I’ve written before, this is no surprise. In fact, it was the plan all along, despite Powell’s efforts to pretend otherwise.

Keep It Simple: Powell Will Pivot

Debtors, including Uncle Sam, need inflation and need a debased currency.

They need negative real rates whereby inflation outpaces the yield on 10Y bonds.

Powell, of course, tried pushing real rates to a positive 2% to allegedly “fight inflation,” but, and as in 2018-19, the net result was that he simply broke nearly everything but the USD in the process.

In fact, Powell was merely raising rates and thinning the Fed balance sheet so that he’d have something (anything) to cut (rates) and fatten (balance sheet) when the recession that his higher-for-longer policies ushered in (and then denied) became too impossible to ignore.

Or stated more bluntly: His recent QT was a planned precursor to more QE, and his recent rate hikes were a planned precursor to more rate cuts.

Keep It Simple: A Future of Debased Currency

Thus, and long before hitting “target 2%,” Powell will once again throw in the towel in 2024 on rate hikes for the simple reason that Uncle Sam can’t afford them.

Or stated (and repeated) more simply, his “war on inflation,” waged in the last 2 years, will ultimately (and ironically) end in even greater inflation.

Ahhh the ironies. Or better yet: “The horror, the horror…”

History confirms this pattern in one debt-failed nation after the next.

In fact, and without exception, currencies are always sacrificed to save a broken regime. And folks, our regime is objectively broke(n).

Thus, for those who know the math (above), and the history of yesterday, preparing for tomorrow is simple.

Projected rate cuts (and the scent of more synthetic liquidity) can and (already have) sent inflated risk assets higher as the inherent purchasing power of the currency gets weaker.

Keep It Simple: Natural Gold vs. An Un-Natural Dollar

This simply means gold, though never marching in a straight line, will reach higher highs and lower lows for no other reason than paper currencies like the USD will get more debased.

And this is all because the issuance of unloved sovereign USTs will become greater and greater, as the opening data from the CBO in Q1 now makes factually clear.

Soon the Fed will run out of tricks within Treasury General Account (Yellen’s game) and the Reverse Repo Markets to generate fake liquidity for those over-supplied and under-demanded USTs.

And this means Powell will once again crank out the money printers at the Eccles Building to “buy” those IOUs.

Fortunately, Powell has no machine in DC to produce physical gold, which means this natural precious metal of unlimited duration yet finite supply will rise, while USTs, an unnatural asset of finite duration yet infinite supply, will continue to sink./p>

It’s just that simple.

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:

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end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//PODCASTS// live from the vault//Andrew Maguire

EPISODE 157
Russia & China’s dedollarisation tactics exposed
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, An

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

end

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1745

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1841

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.11 PTS OR 0.14%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 259.73 PTS OR 1.60%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 485.40 PTS OR 1.34%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.09 EURO RISES TO 1.0871 UP 25 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.702 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.70/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.2980***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.797** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.184…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.2666

3j Gold at $2020.95 silver at: 22.88 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 74 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.63//

3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,70// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.702% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8635 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9387 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.124 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.372 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.312 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.31…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.0225

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge

Daily All Time High In Peril As Futures Dip After Intel Tumbles

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 08:23 AM

After hitting a record high for 5 consecutive days, the daily tech-led meltup is in peril after Intel reported solid earnings but disappointed consensus with weak guidance, sending the stock tumbling 11%, and putting pressure on the Nasdaq which is down 0.2% as disappointing guidance from KLA also hit semiconductor stocks; AMD and Nvidia also retreated. S&P futures are also lower on the day, if well above session lows, while Europe is higher 1% to a 2 year-high led by luxury stocks after LVMH gave reassuring results. Asian stocks closed lower, snapping a six-day win streak, as tech shares stumbled and the China rally halted amid some skepticism over the impact of market rescue measures. 10Y yields inched modestly higher, rising 2bps to 4.12% after earlier falling below 4.10%. The US dollar dropped, also reversing an earlier move in the opposite direction. Oil dipped after surging on Thursday and bitcoin recovered recent losses, trading above $41000.

In premarket trading, Intel tumbled after providing a disappointing forecast, renewing doubts about a long-promised turnaround at the once-dominant chipmaker. Intel’s first-quarter projection for both sales and profit came in well short of Wall Street estimates, with analysts calling into question its ability to compete with competitors capitalizing on the AI boost. The results suggest Intel is struggling to defend its position in data center chips as demand weakens and it continues to lag behind chipmaking peers like Nvidia. Intel’s shares fell more than 12% in premarket trading, and if the decline in early trading holds, the company will be set for its biggest fall since October 2021. European semi-conductor stocks dropped after the update and after disappointing results from KLA. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Archer-Daniels-Midland shares fall 2.4% after UBS cut its recommendation on the food processing and commodities trading corporation’s stock to neutral from buy, citing lower growth and margins.
KLA Corporation shares fall 7.5% after the semiconductor equipment maker provided guidance for third-quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue that fell short of estimates at the midpoint.
Snap shares rise 2.6% after Deutsche Bank upgrades its rating on the social media company to buy in a sector note on the online advertising outlook for the fourth quarter.
T-Mobile shares decline 3.2% after the telecommunications company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that missed estimates. Despite the praise for a strong quarter, analysts noted that share buybacks did not meet their expectations and that churn was greater than anticipated.
Visa shares fall 3.2%, with analysts saying that while the payments firm’s fiscal first-quarter was robust, there may be some disappointment that volumes in January could be affected by adverse weather. They also cite guidance for higher opex as a potential concern, especially after the shares closed at a record on Thursday.

Despite Friday’s setback for the Nasdaq, optimism is running high on equities. Investors channeled $17.6 billion into global equity funds in the week through Jan. 24, BofA strategists said while US equity funds took in $5.3 billion. Gains are being fed by strong earnings and conviction the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are gearing up to cut rates.

Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, noted funds that started the year with big cash positions have been under pressure to buy stocks.

“Markets are now comfortable with the idea of a soft landing,” Juvyns said. “Central banks have confirmed that interest rate cuts would come rather later than was first expected, but that message has now been digested by the market.”

The view of a soft landing for the US economy was confirmed by Thursday’s gross domestic product data. Investors will get another key reading of US pricing pressures later Friday, with the release of the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation.

“There was something for everyone in yesterday’s data. The soft landing scenario looks good for earnings, but it also looks like the Fed is succeeding in bringing inflation down, which has benefits for bonds too,” said Sarah Hewin, head of Europe and Americas research at Standard Chartered Bank.

The core PCE deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — likely grew at a subdued pace in December, according to Bloomberg Economics. “The personal income and outlays data may be a “Goldilocks” report — showing robust consumption and income even with inflation more than half way to the Fed’s target”

Europeans stocks are set to rise for a third day, while bonds in the region add to their post-ECB rally. The Stoxx 600 is up 1%, hitting the highest level in two years as luxury stocks rally after LVMH gave a reassuring set of results, bucking weakness in US equity futures and Asian markets. LVMH shares jumped 9.1%, the most since March 2022, adding just shy of €29 billion ($31.5 billion) of extra market value. LVMH’s fourth-quarter sales were boosted by high-end shoppers splashing out on its Dior fashions, Louis Vuitton handbags and Moët & Chandon Champagne. The strong performance follows a similarly upbeat report from Cartier owner Richemont, suggesting the strongest brands are weathering the broader slowdown in the luxury sector. The results come as LVMH’s French billionaire owner Bernard Arnault plans to appoint two of his sons to the board of the luxury conglomerate, underscoring the family’s firm grip on the company. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

Shares in Sartorius surge as much as 12%, the most since March 2021, after the German laboratory equipment supplier reported a book-to-bill ratio in the fourth quarter that impressed analysts. The outlook for the year is also positive, according to those covering the stock.
Shares in Remy gain as much as 17% after the cognac maker reported third-quarter results. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies see the results providing some relief, while Citi says the absence of new negatives on the FY25 outlook should enable investors to start looking forward.
Shares in Salvatore Ferragamo rise as much as 5.9%, reversing earlier declines, as analysts said results from the Italian luxury accessories maker were slightly above expectations, though noted that this was driven by the firm’s lower quality wholesale channel. Overall, luxury stocks got a boost from a resilient set of results from LVMH.
Shares in Lonza soar as much as 15%, their steepest gain ever, after the Swiss maker of drug ingredients named former Unilever CFO Jean-Marc Huet as its new chairman, and posted a confirmed outlook for 2024-2028, which analysts said was welcome.
Shares in JCDecaux rise as much as 8.9% after the outdoor advertising firm reported stronger-than-expected organic sales growth during the fourth quarter. Growth was driven by digital revenue during the year-end period and a recovery of transport activities, the company said.
Shares in Merck KGaA advance as much as 6.8%, the most since July 2022. Results from ASML, TSMC, Lonza, and Sartorius provide a reassuring readacross for the German pharmaceutical company, according to Citi.
Shares in Europe Chip Stocks fall across the board after once-dominant chipmaker Intel gave a first-quarter forecast that was much weaker than expected.
Shares in Volvo slide as much as 5.8%, before paring the decline, after the Swedish truckmaker missed expectations on quarterly order intake. Guidance for a slower 2024 also weighs on sentiment.
Shares in Bayer fall as much as 2.9% after being downgraded to underperform from neutral at Bank of America. The broker advises caution on the German conglomerate due to continued overhang from litigation, a cut dividend and an “unclear path” to deleverage.

Earlier in the session, Chinese and Hong Kong shares dropped after the biggest three-day rally since 2022, shrugging off fresh stimulus signals from Beijing. However, Bank of America highlighted a record $12.1 billion of inflow into Chinese equity funds, a possible sign investors are tiptoeing back into the beaten-up market. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with Toyota, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest drags on the benchmark. Chip and PC stocks fell after a disappointing outlook from Intel. Still, the regional benchmark was poised for a weekly advance of 1.5%, its best so far this year. Chinese equities retreated after notching their biggest three-day advance since 2022 on bets that the latest efforts from Beijing will support the economy and backstop markets. Investors are now trying to gauge how long those gains might be sustained.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is flat for the week while the Swiss franc tops the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. Treasury 10-year yields dropped two basis points to 4.10%, extending Thursday’s six-basis-point decline. “While additional short-term USD gains are possible as the market reprices Fed expectations, most of the technical backdrops favor using such rallies as a selling opportunity,” George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets, writes in a note

In rates, treasuries are mixed with the yield curve flatter as US trading day begins, unwinding a portion of Thursday’s sharp steepening in 2s10s and 5s30s spreads ahead of a key inflation reading for December. US long-end yields are flat; 10-year yields around 4.12% with bunds outperforming and gilts lagging slightly. Front-end underperformance flattens 2s10s by ~2bp, 5s30s by ~1bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; five names priced $4.65b Thursday. German bunds extended a rally that was sparked on Thursday, when President Christine Lagarde’s gave a muted affirmation that the ECB may begin lowering interest rates from around mid-2024. Bunds rose despite a generally hawkish tone from ECB policymakers – Governing Council member Boris Vujcic argued they did not turn dovish on Thursday; the German front-end extends outperformance since Wednesday’s ECB meeting.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to trade near $76.55. Spot gold rises 0.1%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the PCE inflation data for December, along with personal income and personal spending, and pending home sales. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta, Kazaks and Vujcic. Finally, earnings releases include American Express.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,907.75
MXAP down 0.8% to 165.16
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 482.02
German 10Y yield down 2.5 bps at 2.26%
Euro little changed at $1.0843
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 506.20
Nikkei down 1.3% to 35,751.07
Topix down 1.4% to 2,497.65
Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 15,952.23
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,910.22
Sensex down 0.5% to 70,700.67
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,555.36
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,478.56
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $81.85/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $2,020.06
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.50

Top Overnight News

European stocks rose on Friday, bucking weakness in US equity futures and in Asian markets, as an update from the world’s largest luxury retailer showed that spending among the wealthiest consumers remains resilient.
China’s central bank unveiled broad plans to guide money into sectors of national importance to boost the faltering economy this year, after making an unusual reserve requirement ratio announcement.
Vladimir Putin is testing the waters on whether the US is ready to engage in talks for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said that while he’s less optimistic than markets on the prospect of an April reduction in interest rates, he’s open-minded and will look at the data that arrives in the meantime.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia=Pac stocks failed to sustain the broad positive momentum from Wall St with the region mostly lower in quietened conditions amid a lack of fresh drivers and as markets in Australia and India were closed for holiday. Nikkei 225 was pressured and retreated beneath the 36,000 level despite softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data which showed the slowest pace of core inflation in Japan’s capital area since March 2022. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as the effects of recent Chinese support measures waned.

Top Asian News

Chinese Commerce Minister said China’s trade faces a more complex and severe external situation, while the rise of trade protectionism, intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the risk of spillover has increased significantly, according to Reuters.
BoJ Minutes from the December 18th-19th meeting stated that members agreed they must patiently maintain easy policy and must confirm a positive wage-inflation cycle to consider ending negative rates and YCC. Furthermore, a few members said the decision on whether a positive wage-inflation cycle is in place must be made comprehensively and not by looking at particular data, while a few members said they don’t see the risk of the BoJ being behind the curve and can wait for developments in the spring annual wage talks.Members also agreed they must continue deepening the debate on exit timing and the appropriate pace of hiking rates after the end of negative rates.

European bourses are in the green, Stoxx600 (+0.6%); with the CAC 40 (+1.7%) outperforming alongside significant strength in the Luxury sector, post-LVMH earnings coupled with Barclays upgrading the sector to Overweight. European sectors hold a strong positive tilt; Consumer Products & Services sits highest after strong LVMH earnings, with Food Beverage and Tobacco also propped up post-Remy Cointreau results. Tech lags after weaker Intel guidance. US equity futures are on a mixed footing, with the NQ (-0.5%) significantly underperforming as Tech drags the index lower post-Intel earnings after-hours; Co. shares are seen lower by 11% in the pre-market after guiding Q1 revenue to be significantly lower than expectations.

Top European News

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: 2024 inflation seen at 2.4% vs. prev. view of 2.7%. 2025 2.0% vs. prev. view of 2.1%. GDP: 2024 0.6% vs. prev. view of 0.9%. 2025 1.3% vs. prev. view of 1.5%. Core inflation: 2024 2.6% vs. prev. view of 2.9%.
ECB Bulletin: Contacts painted a largely unchanged picture of activity stagnating or contracting slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023, with little or no pick-up expected in the first quarter of 2024. Wage growth is expected to ease somewhat this year.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) MECL vessels will now also be avoiding the Red Sea region

ECB speak

ECB’s Kazaks says the ECB is data, not date, dependent, via Bloomberg TV; sees some softening in the labour market. Technical recession is a possibility.
ECB’s Muller says it is still too soon to talk about rate cuts. Too little confidence now that inflation has been defeated.
ECB’s Vujcic says there was no dovish tilt at the January ECB meeting; we are data dependent not date dependent, via Bloomberg. We need patience and must have sufficient data; need reassurance that inflation is headed for 2%.
ECB’s Simkus says does not expect a rate cut in March. The further into 2024, the more likely a rate cut becomes; expectations increases exponentially not linearly.

Earnings

Intel Corp (INTC) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.63 (exp. 0.45), Revenue 15.4bln (exp. 15.16bln). Q1 adj. EPS view 0.13 (exp. 0.34).Q1 adj. revenue view 12.2-13.2bln (exp. 14.25bln). REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Client Computing 8.84bln (exp. 8.42bln). Datacenter & AI 4bln (exp. 4.08bln). Network & Edge 1.47bln (exp. 1.55bln). Mobileye 637mln (exp. 627.2mln). Intel Foundry Services 291mln (exp. 342.5mln). KEY METRICS: Adj. operating income 2.58bln (exp. 2.1bln). Adj. operating margin 16.7% (exp. 13.9%). Adj. gross margin 48.8% (exp. 46.5%). R&D expenses 3.99bln (exp. 3.9bln). COMMENTARY: On track to meet the goal of five nodes in four years. (Newswires) Shares -11.3% pre-market
T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.67 (exp. 1.90), Revenue 20.48bln (exp. 19.64bln). (Newswires) Shares -2.8% pre-market
Visa Inc (V) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.41 (exp. 2.34), Revenue 8.6bln (exp. 8.54bln). Guides Q2 net revenue growth to upper mid-to-high single-digit (exp. +8.67%). Q2 EPS growth high teens (exp. +12.15%). KEY METRICS: Payments volume at constant currency +8% (exp +8.03%). Cross-border volumes at constant currency +16% (exp. +14.9%). Total Visa processed transactions 57.5bln (exp. 57.77bln). Shares -3.1% pre-market
LVMH (MC FP) – FY 2023 (EUR): Revenue 86.153bln (exp. 85.626bln); FCF 8.104bln, -20%; Net Income 15.174bln, +8%; Is confident in continued growth in 2024. Q4 RESULTS: Revenue 23.95bln (exp. 23.72bln). Organic revenue +10% (exp. +8.17%). Fashion & Leather Goods organic sales +9% (exp. +9.14%). Wines & Spirits organic sales +4% (exp. -7.47%). Perfumes & Cosmetics organic sales +10% (exp. +9.41%). Watches & Jewelry organic sales +3% (exp. +2.93%). Selective Retailing organic sales +21% (exp. +14%). FY23 OPERATING INCOME: Recurring 22.80B (exp. 22.46bln). Fashion & Leather Goods 16.84bln (exp. 16.9bln). Wines & Spirits 2.11bln (exp. 1.85bln). Perfume & Cosmetics 713mln (exp. 769mln). Watches & Jewelry 2.16bln (exp. 2.02bln). Selective Retailing 1.39bln (exp. 1.51bln). FY23 REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Revenue 86.15bln (exp. 85.88bln). Fashion & Leather Goods 42.17bln (exp. 42.47bln). Wines & Spirits 6.60bln (exp. 6.46bln). Perfume & Cosmetics 8.27bln (exp. 8.3bln). Watches & Jewelry 10.90bln (exp. 10.97bln). Selective Retailing 17.89bln (exp. 17.61bln). Dividend per share 13 (exp. 13.59). Net income 15.17bln (exp. 15.67bln). CEO Arnault does not intend to leave in the near or medium term. CFO says sales trends with Chinese clientele remained good; doesn’t expect Chinese groups to return soon to Europe but managing to make ‘significant’ business with wealthy Chinese in Europe. CEO says Co. is definitely not considering an asset spin-off, it would be a mistake. Co. not planning additional price hikes this year. (LVMH) Co. holds a 6.5% weighting in the Eurostoxx50; 12% in the CAC40; fifth largest in the Stoxx600 Shares +11.5% in European trade
Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) – Q3 (EUR): Revenue 319.9mln (exp. 320.7mln), Notes major destocking in China ahead of Chinese New Year. Cooperating with the Chinese authorities in anti-dumping investigation. Cuts FY23/24 Organic Revenue guidance to “lower end” -20% to -15% (prev. guidance -20% to -15%). Cognac +31.4% Y/Y, Liqueurs +1.5%, Partner Brands -7.3% Y/Y, Group Brands -22.9% Y/Y. (Newswires) Shares +15.2% in European trade
Sartorius (SRT GY) – FY23 (EUR): Net 339mln (exp. 655mln Y/Y), EBITDA 963mln (exp. 961mln), Revenue 3.4bln (exp. 3.42bln), Orden intake 3.07bln, -21.5% Y/Y. Guides FY24 Revenue in the “mid to high single digit % range”. Expects profitable growth in 2024. (Newswires) Shares +8.4% in European trade

DXY is around flat, though initially picked up in the European morning to 103.73 before fading the move in quiet trade as markets await US PCE data; currently holds below the 103.50 mark.
EUR is largely moving at the whim of the USD and as ECB speakers push back on talk of rate cuts; still some way off yesterday’s high of 1.0901.
USD/JPY has continued to tick higher but the next move will likely come via Fed vs. BoJ divergence/convergence plays with PCE due later today and FOMC next week; currently holds around flat at 147.70.
NZD suffering vs. the USD to a greater extent than AUD which is possibly being buoyed by sentiment around China post-RRR cut. AUD/NZD looking to test 1.08 to the upside as NZD/USD slips below 0.61.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1074 vs exp. 7.1733 (prev. 7.1044).

Fixed Income

USTs are holding in the green, but only modestly so, with focus entirely on US PCE for December; USTs marginally bull-flattening into this.
Bunds are contained around the top-end of Thursday’s parameters, contracts printed an incremental WTD high of 135.02 this morning, before gradually waning.
Gilt action has been in-fitting with EGBs, though did not print a fresh WTD peak on the open with the 98.78 current high markedly shy of Monday’s 99.45 best, resistance thereafter limited until 100.00.

Coommodities

Crude benchmarks are pulling back marginally, with specifics light and the complex thus far largely unaffected by USD action; Brent futures are back below USD 82.00/bbl.
Spot gold is unchanged, in a narrow USD 2018.34-2024.22/oz bound with specifics light and the yellow metal thus far also unaffected by the USD; XAU holding just shy of USD 2025/oz; base metals are a touch softer echoing the tone of US equity futures with overall specifics light.
US is pausing the pending decisions of new LNG export projects in order to review economic and environmental impacts; Pause comes with exceptions for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.

Geopolitics: Middle East

Israeli war council discussed a possible exchange deal with Hamas, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas said if the ICJ issues a ruling for a ceasefire, Hamas will abide by it if Israel reciprocates, while Hamas will release all Israeli hostages in Gaza if Israel releases all Palestinian prisoners.
American weapons arrived in Israel including dozens of F-35 and F-15 fighters and Apache helicopters, according to Al Jazeera.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for talks on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, according to WSJ. It was later reported that the White House confirmed National Security Adviser Sullivan will travel to Bangkok this week to meet with Thailand’s PM and will also meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang, according to Reuters.
Chinese officials asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, according to Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
US and Iraq are to shift to bilateral military relations and US officials will stay in Iraq to defeat Islamic State, according to Bloomberg.
US President Biden last week pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale down the Israeli military operation in Gaza, two U.S. officials told Axios.

Geopolitics: Other

Kremlin denies Bloomberg reports that Putin is “putting our feelers” to the the US over terms for ending the Ukraine war.
Russian President Putin is reportedly to signal to the US that he’s open to talks on Ukraine and sources added that Moscow is floating ideas on Ukraine security and territory, according to Bloomberg.
US officials said North Korean leader Kim could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after switching to a policy of open hostility, according to the New York Times.
Venezuelan President Maduro says the deal with the political opposition for elections this year could collapse after he alleged “conspiracies” against him, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Dec. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- Dec. Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
- Dec. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30: Dec. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
- PCE Deflator YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.6%
- PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
- PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 3.2%
10:00: Dec. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -4.3%, prior -5.1%
10:00: Dec. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 2.0%, prior 0%
11:00: Jan. Kansas City Fed Services Activity, prior -10

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As it’s Oscar nomination week we decided to watch the 3 hour long “Oppenheimer” over two nights this week. I fell asleep on the sofa during the first half on Tuesday night and then again last night for the final part (it was football on Wednesday when I was wide awake!). My wife kept on poking me but I refused to stir. Assuming this eventually wins the Oscars my quick review of the last 5 Oscar winning films are as follows. “Oppenheimer” – a bit dull. “Everything everywhere all at once” – one of the worst films I’ve ever seen. “CODA” – a fabulous film. “Nomadland” – not a barrel of laughs. “Parasite” – a very good movie. I suspect if the EMR comes to an end I won’t end up a very successful movie critic.

The market script has stayed the same over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.53%) closing at a record high for a 5th consecutive session, whilst US IG spreads again fell to their tightest level in over two years. Several factors drove the rally, including an upside surprise in US GDP for Q4, which added to hopes that the economy could pull off a soft landing. Then shortly after, ECB President Lagarde struck a more dovish tone than expected, which led investors to dial up the chance of a rate cut as soon as April. So with hopes for a soft landing in the ascendancy, and yet more validation for near-term rate cuts, there was a significant cross-asset rally that saw equities and bonds post gains on both sides of the Atlantic. Next stop will be PCE inflation data out today as part of the US spending and income release. That will be important ahead of the Fed next week.

In terms of the ECB’s decision, the Governing Council left rates on hold as expected, and the statement repeated its language from December that “future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.” In the press conference, President Lagarde said that the consensus “was that it was premature to discuss rate cuts” and that they “need to be further along in the disinflation process before we can be sufficiently confident that inflation will actually hit the target in a timely manner.”

However, there were several dovish tweaks within the details of the ECB signal. The view of recent growth and inflation trends was toned down in the prepared statement, while Lagarde acknowledged the rise in headline inflation in December was smaller than the ECB had pencilled in. Lagarde also focused on data dependence and downplayed the need for the ECB to see any individual data point to begin easing, giving a sense that the ECB’s policy stance could shift promptly if the macro view changes. Our European economists see yesterday’s meeting as supporting their view of rate cuts starting in April, with room for this to begin with a 50bp cut if their more downbeat economic expectations fully materialise. See their full reaction note here.

Those dovish hints led investors to dial up the chance of rate cuts happening soon. For instance, going into the decision, the chance of a cut by April had stood at 63%, but by the close yesterday it was up to 93%. And a full 50bps of cuts are now priced in by the June meeting. The chance of a cut as soon as the next meeting in March also inched up to 17% by the close. So that’s still considered rather unlikely, but not impossible as far as markets are concerned.

Against that backdrop, sovereign bond yields rallied significantly across the Euro Area, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-6.1bps) and BTPs (-7.7bps) all falling significantly. And with rate cuts on the horizon, front-end yields saw an even larger decline, with 2yr German yields down -9.4bps. Next week will be very important on this front too, since we’ll get the flash CPI release for January, so any surprises could have an important bearing on the timing of rate cuts.

Apart from the ECB, the other big story came from US data, which continued to surprise on the upside. Specifically, t he first estimate of Q4 GDP came in at an annualised pace of +3.3% (vs. +2.0% expected), which was above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. And as part of that, we got confirmation that core PCE was running at +2.0% in Q4 as expected, so there was a lot of good news in the report. The only downside of note yesterday was that the initial jobless claims were above expectations over the week ending January 20, at 214k (vs. 200k expected), but even with that, the 4-week average still fell to its lowest in almost a year, at 202.25k.

With the print showing strong growth and inflation running at target levels again, that was great news for equities. Indeed, several indices hit new records, including the S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the DAX (+0.10%). That said, Tesla (-12.13%) lost significant ground, meaning that the Magnificent 7 fell back -0.82%, even though five of its members were actually higher on the day. Otherwise, the US equity rally was a broad one with 80% of S&P 500 constituents up on the day. And over in Europe, there was a significant divergence by country, with the STOXX 600 up +0.30%, but with losses for Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.60%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (-0.58%).

On the inflation front, yesterday’s data was fairly promising, but there were some more timely indicators that pointed in a more negative direction. For instance , Brent Crude (+2.99%) reached its highest level since November at $82.43/bbl, helped by the broader risk rally as well as latest data on US crude inventories, which fell to their lowest level since October (as of Jan 19). Separately, there was fresh evidence that the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping were having a broader impact, as Drewry’s World container Index was up for a 7th consecutive week. That’s now at $3,964 per 40ft container, which is nearly triple its levels from late-October, when costs were at a post-pandemic low.

But even as there were some more concerning headlines coming through, the dovish ECB and the core PCE data saw investors grow in confidence that the Fed would cuts rates. For example, the chance of a rate cut by the March meeting was up to 53%, and by the close there were 141bps of cuts priced in by the December meeting, up +8.9bps on the previous day. That meant Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr yield down -5.8bps to 4.12%, down from its high for 2024 the previous day. In addition, the larger decline in front-end yields meant the 2s10s curve steepened up to -17.9bps, which isn’t far away from its recent peak of -16.1bps in late October.

Overnight in Asia there’s been a more negative tone in markets, with losses for the Nikkei (-1.45%), the Hang Seng (-0.64%), the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.24%). The main exception has been the KOSPI (+0.64%), but US equity futures are also negative, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.37%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.71%) pointing lower as well. On the data side, we also got the latest Tokyo CPI reading overnight, where headline CPI was down to +1.6% in January (vs. +2.0% expected), which is the first time that’s been beneath 2% since March 2022. In turn, that’s led investors to question how much the Bank of Japan will be able to hike rates this year, and yields on 10yr JGBs are down -3.0bps this morning.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

European equities firmer whilst Stateside futures are mixed, DXY slightly weaker ahead of US PCE – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 06:05 AM

European bourses are firmer, with significant outperformance in the CAC40 lifted by the Luxury sector, post-LVMH earnings
Dollar is around flat, EUR modestly firmer with price action contained ahead of US PCE
Bonds are modestly firmer and in proximity to yesterday’s highs
Crude benchmarks are pulling back marginally; base metals are a touch softer with specifics light
Looking ahead, US PCE, Earnings from American Express & Colgate

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are in the green, Stoxx600 (+0.6%); with the CAC 40 (+1.7%) outperforming alongside significant strength in the Luxury sector, post-LVMH earnings coupled with Barclays upgrading the sector to Overweight.
European sectors hold a strong positive tilt; Consumer Products & Services sits highest after strong LVMH earnings, with Food Beverage and Tobacco also propped up post-Remy Cointreau results. Tech lags after weaker Intel guidance.
US equity futures are on a mixed footing, with the NQ (-0.5%) significantly underperforming as Tech drags the index lower post-Intel earnings after-hours; Co. shares are seen lower by 11% in the pre-market after guiding Q1 revenue to be significantly lower than expectations.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from LVMH, Sartorius, Lonza & more.
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FX

DXY is around flat, though initially picked up in the European morning to 103.73 before fading the move in quiet trade as markets await US PCE data; currently holds below the 103.50 mark.
EUR is largely moving at the whim of the USD and as ECB speakers push back on talk of rate cuts; still some way off yesterday’s high of 1.0901.
USD/JPY has continued to tick higher but the next move will likely come via Fed vs. BoJ divergence/convergence plays with PCE due later today and FOMC next week; currently holds around flat at 147.70.
NZD suffering vs. the USD to a greater extent than AUD which is possibly being buoyed by sentiment around China post-RRR cut. AUD/NZD looking to test 1.08 to the upside as NZD/USD slips below 0.61.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1074 vs exp. 7.1733 (prev. 7.1044).
Click here for more details.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

USTs are holding in the green, but only modestly so, with focus entirely on US PCE for December; USTs marginally bull-flattening into this.
Bunds are contained around the top-end of Thursday’s parameters, contracts printed an incremental WTD high of 135.02 this morning, before gradually waning.
Gilt action has been in-fitting with EGBs, though did not print a fresh WTD peak on the open with the 98.78 current high markedly shy of Monday’s 99.45 best, resistance thereafter limited until 100.00.
Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are pulling back marginally, with specifics light and the complex thus far largely unaffected by USD action; Brent futures are back below USD 82.00/bbl.
Spot gold is unchanged, in a narrow USD 2018.34-2024.22/oz bound with specifics light and the yellow metal thus far also unaffected by the USD; XAU holding just shy of USD 2025/oz; base metals are a touch softer echoing the tone of US equity futures with overall specifics light.
US is pausing the pending decisions of new LNG export projects in order to review economic and environmental impacts; Pause comes with exceptions for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.
Click here for more details.

ECB Speak

ECB’s Kazaks says the ECB is data, not date, dependent, via Bloomberg TV; sees some softening in the labour market. Technical recession is a possibility.
ECB’s Muller says it is still too soon to talk about rate cuts. Too little confidence now that inflation has been defeated.
ECB’s Vujcic says there was no dovish tilt at the January ECB meeting; we are data dependent not date dependent, via Bloomberg. We need patience and must have sufficient data; need reassurance that inflation is headed for 2%.
ECB’s Simkus says does not expect a rate cut in March. The further into 2024, the more likely a rate cut becomes; expectations increases exponentially not linearly.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: 2024 inflation seen at 2.4% vs. prev. view of 2.7%. 2025 2.0% vs. prev. view of 2.1%. GDP: 2024 0.6% vs. prev. view of 0.9%. 2025 1.3% vs. prev. view of 1.5%. Core inflation: 2024 2.6% vs. prev. view of 2.9%.
ECB Bulletin: Contacts painted a largely unchanged picture of activity stagnating or contracting slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023, with little or no pick-up expected in the first quarter of 2024. Wage growth is expected to ease somewhat this year.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) MECL vessels will now also be avoiding the Red Sea region

DATA RECAP

UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jan) -19.0 vs. Exp. -21.0 (Prev. -22.0)
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Feb) -29.7 vs. Exp. -24.5 (Prev. -25.1, Rev. -25.4)
Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q4) 11.76% vs. Exp. 11.9% (Prev. 11.84%)
EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Dec) 0.1% (Prev. -0.9%); EU Loans to Non-Fin (Dec) 0.4%; EU Loans to Households (Dec) 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Elon Musk AI start-up xAI is looking to raise USD 6bln from investors in a challenge to OpenAI, according to the FT; at a valuation of USD 20bln.

EARNINGS

Intel Corp (INTC) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.63 (exp. 0.45), Revenue 15.4bln (exp. 15.16bln). Q1 adj. EPS view 0.13 (exp. 0.34).Q1 adj. revenue view 12.2-13.2bln (exp. 14.25bln). REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Client Computing 8.84bln (exp. 8.42bln). Datacenter & AI 4bln (exp. 4.08bln). Network & Edge 1.47bln (exp. 1.55bln). Mobileye 637mln (exp. 627.2mln). Intel Foundry Services 291mln (exp. 342.5mln). KEY METRICS: Adj. operating income 2.58bln (exp. 2.1bln). Adj. operating margin 16.7% (exp. 13.9%). Adj. gross margin 48.8% (exp. 46.5%). R&D expenses 3.99bln (exp. 3.9bln). COMMENTARY: On track to meet the goal of five nodes in four years. (Newswires) Shares -11.3% pre-market
T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.67 (exp. 1.90), Revenue 20.48bln (exp. 19.64bln). (Newswires) Shares -2.8% pre-market
Visa Inc (V) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.41 (exp. 2.34), Revenue 8.6bln (exp. 8.54bln). Guides Q2 net revenue growth to upper mid-to-high single-digit (exp. +8.67%). Q2 EPS growth high teens (exp. +12.15%). KEY METRICS: Payments volume at constant currency +8% (exp +8.03%). Cross-border volumes at constant currency +16% (exp. +14.9%). Total Visa processed transactions 57.5bln (exp. 57.77bln). Shares -3.1% pre-market
LVMH (MC FP) – FY 2023 (EUR): Revenue 86.153bln (exp. 85.626bln); FCF 8.104bln, -20%; Net Income 15.174bln, +8%; Is confident in continued growth in 2024. Q4 RESULTS: Revenue 23.95bln (exp. 23.72bln). Organic revenue +10% (exp. +8.17%). Fashion & Leather Goods organic sales +9% (exp. +9.14%). Wines & Spirits organic sales +4% (exp. -7.47%). Perfumes & Cosmetics organic sales +10% (exp. +9.41%). Watches & Jewelry organic sales +3% (exp. +2.93%). Selective Retailing organic sales +21% (exp. +14%). FY23 OPERATING INCOME: Recurring 22.80B (exp. 22.46bln). Fashion & Leather Goods 16.84bln (exp. 16.9bln). Wines & Spirits 2.11bln (exp. 1.85bln). Perfume & Cosmetics 713mln (exp. 769mln). Watches & Jewelry 2.16bln (exp. 2.02bln). Selective Retailing 1.39bln (exp. 1.51bln). FY23 REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Revenue 86.15bln (exp. 85.88bln). Fashion & Leather Goods 42.17bln (exp. 42.47bln). Wines & Spirits 6.60bln (exp. 6.46bln). Perfume & Cosmetics 8.27bln (exp. 8.3bln). Watches & Jewelry 10.90bln (exp. 10.97bln). Selective Retailing 17.89bln (exp. 17.61bln). Dividend per share 13 (exp. 13.59). Net income 15.17bln (exp. 15.67bln). CEO Arnault does not intend to leave in the near or medium term. CFO says sales trends with Chinese clientele remained good; doesn’t expect Chinese groups to return soon to Europe but managing to make ‘significant’ business with wealthy Chinese in Europe. CEO says Co. is definitely not considering an asset spin-off, it would be a mistake. Co. not planning additional price hikes this year. (LVMH) Co. holds a 6.5% weighting in the Eurostoxx50; 12% in the CAC40; fifth largest in the Stoxx600 Shares +11.5% in European trade
Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) – Q3 (EUR): Revenue 319.9mln (exp. 320.7mln), Notes major destocking in China ahead of Chinese New Year. Cooperating with the Chinese authorities in anti-dumping investigation. Cuts FY23/24 Organic Revenue guidance to “lower end” -20% to -15% (prev. guidance -20% to -15%). Cognac +31.4% Y/Y, Liqueurs +1.5%, Partner Brands -7.3% Y/Y, Group Brands -22.9% Y/Y. (Newswires) Shares +15.2% in European trade
Sartorius (SRT GY) – FY23 (EUR): Net 339mln (exp. 655mln Y/Y), EBITDA 963mln (exp. 961mln), Revenue 3.4bln (exp. 3.42bln), Orden intake 3.07bln, -21.5% Y/Y. Guides FY24 Revenue in the “mid to high single digit % range”. Expects profitable growth in 2024. (Newswires) Shares +8.4% in European trade

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Israeli war council discussed a possible exchange deal with Hamas, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas said if the ICJ issues a ruling for a ceasefire, Hamas will abide by it if Israel reciprocates, while Hamas will release all Israeli hostages in Gaza if Israel releases all Palestinian prisoners.
American weapons arrived in Israel including dozens of F-35 and F-15 fighters and Apache helicopters, according to Al Jazeera.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for talks on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, according to WSJ. It was later reported that the White House confirmed National Security Adviser Sullivan will travel to Bangkok this week to meet with Thailand’s PM and will also meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang, according to Reuters.
Chinese officials asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, according to Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
US and Iraq are to shift to bilateral military relations and US officials will stay in Iraq to defeat Islamic State, according to Bloomberg.
US President Biden last week pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale down the Israeli military operation in Gaza, two U.S. officials told Axios.

OTHER

Kremlin denies Bloomberg reports that Putin is “putting our feelers” to the the US over terms for ending the Ukraine war.
Russian President Putin is reportedly to signal to the US that he’s open to talks on Ukraine and sources added that Moscow is floating ideas on Ukraine security and territory, according to Bloomberg.
US officials said North Korean leader Kim could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after switching to a policy of open hostility, according to the New York Times.
Venezuelan President Maduro says the deal with the political opposition for elections this year could collapse after he alleged “conspiracies” against him, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin (+1.2%) continues to hold around the USD 40k mark, with overall trade contained.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks failed to sustain the broad positive momentum from Wall St with the region mostly lower in quietened conditions amid a lack of fresh drivers and as markets in Australia and India were closed for holiday.
Nikkei 225 was pressured and retreated beneath the 36,000 level despite softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data which showed the slowest pace of core inflation in Japan’s capital area since March 2022.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as the effects of recent Chinese support measures waned.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Chinese Commerce Minister said China’s trade faces a more complex and severe external situation, while the rise of trade protectionism, intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the risk of spillover has increased significantly, according to Reuters.
BoJ Minutes from the December 18th-19th meeting stated that members agreed they must patiently maintain easy policy and must confirm a positive wage-inflation cycle to consider ending negative rates and YCC. Furthermore, a few members said the decision on whether a positive wage-inflation cycle is in place must be made comprehensively and not by looking at particular data, while a few members said they don’t see the risk of the BoJ being behind the curve and can wait for developments in the spring annual wage talks.Members also agreed they must continue deepening the debate on exit timing and the appropriate pace of hiking rates after the end of negative rates.

DATA RECAP

Tokyo CPI YY (Jan) 1.6% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.4%); CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jan) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.1%); CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jan) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.5%)
Japanese Services PPI YY (Dec) 2.4% vs Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%)

2C ASIA AFFAIRS

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

end

SWEDEN/

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/

Israeli troops surround Hamas operatives in West Khan Younis. Many Hamas dead

(Jerusalem Post)

Troops battle Hamas operatives in Khan Younis as IAF strikes RPG-wielding cell

IDF announces death of reservist, bringing Gaza op toll to 220; protesters block humanitarian aid at Kerem Shalom for third consecutive day, calling for release of hostages

By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
and TOI STAFFToday, 2:51 pm

Fighting between Israel Defense Forces and the Hamas terror group continued deep within Khan Younis on Friday, the military said, as families of hostages held by terror groups in the Gaza Strip blocked trucks of aid from entering the enclave via the Kerem Shalom crossing for a third consecutive day.

The IDF also announced the death of a reservist killed during fighting in the Strip on Thursday, bringing the toll of slain troops in the ground offensive against Hamas to 220. Sgt. Maj. (res.) Eliran Yeger, 36, of the Combat Engineering Corps’ 8170th Battalion, from Tel Aviv, was killed during a gun battle with Hamas operatives in southern Gaza.

In the Khan Younis area, the IDF said Friday that ground forces of the 98th Division killed dozens of Hamas gunmen and the Air Force carried out a wave of strikes overnight Thursday, including apartments used by operatives, weapons depots, observation posts and staging grounds.

In one incident, the division’s Paratroopers Brigade spotted five Hamas gunmen entering a building, and directed an airstrike on them, the IDF said.

On Friday morning, the IDF released drone footage showing a group of RPG-wielding Hamas operatives being spotted in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, before being struck by an aircraft.

The three-man Hamas cell was identified by soldiers of the Border Defense Corps’ 636th Combat Intelligence Collection unit, who also called in the strike. The unit has been operating alongside troops in Khan Younis in recent weeks, locating some 200 tunnel entrances, aiding in destroying more than 130 Hamas sites and nearly a dozen rocket launchers, and targeting numerous Hamas cells, the IDF said.

Nearby, the Maglan unit spotted four Hamas operatives who had fired an anti-tank missile hours earlier, and directed a fighter jet to strike them, the IDF said, adding that several more gunmen were killed by troops in the area.

The Givati Brigade, meanwhile, eliminated a six-man Hamas cell with tank shelling and sniper fire in the Khan Younis area, the IDF said.

In northern Gaza, the military said IAF fighter jets struck several Hamas sites, including a building that was booby-trapped, an anti-tank launch position, and a tunnel shaft, while reservists of the 5th Brigade killed several Hamas gunmen with tank shelling and by directing airstrikes in the area.

The Navy also carried out strikes along the Gaza coast overnight, as part of support for troops of the Nahal Brigade who are maneuvering in the Strip, according to the IDF.

Sgt. Maj. (res.) Eliran Yeger. (Courtesy)

As the ground offensive aimed at toppling Hamas expands, the IDF called on residents of several neighborhoods in western Khan Younis to evacuate to the nearby al-Mawasi area in southern Gaza.

The IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee published a map of the zones that need to be evacuated alongside the announcement, which included the al-Nasr and al-Amal neighborhoods, the Khan Younis refugee camp, and the city center.

Meanwhile, hundreds more protesters were expected to join a demonstration at the Kerem Shalom border crossing throughout the day on Friday, to demand that all humanitarian aid entering the war-torn strip be cut off until the remaining hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 are freed and returned to Israel.

The captives have been held since Hamas’s October 7 massacre, which saw some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border into Israel by land, air and sea, killing some 1,200 people and seizing over 250 hostages of all ages, mostly civilians.

Vowing to destroy the terror group, Israel launched a wide-scale military campaign, which the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says has killed over 26,000 people and wounded some 64,000 people. The figures are unverified and are believed to include close to 10,000 Hamas operatives Israel said it has killed during fighting in the Strip, as well as civilians killed by misfired Palestinian rockets.

On Thursday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that more than 100 Hamas operatives had been captured by Israeli troops in Gaza in recent days, including some who surrendered after hiding in tunnels.

“Hamas is collapsing into its own tunnels that it painstakingly dug. Every place it thought would be a trap for IDF soldiers becomes an area where we hit it,” Gallant said to soldiers of the elite Yahalom combat engineering unit during a visit to their base in southern Israel.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets with IDF soldiers on January 25, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

Gallant said Hamas has “hundreds of casualties underground” as a result of Yahalom’s actions.

“In the past day and a half, we have over 100 captives, some of them who came up from underground, in the Khan Younis area and also in other places, because they realize that they can’t fight against the IDF,” he said.

According to the IDF, the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504 has interrogated some 2,300 Palestinian suspects in Gaza, many of whom, suspected terror operatives, have been arrested and brought to Israel for further questioning.

END

ISRAEL GAZA

As battles rage in Khan Younis, first rocket alert from Gaza in 4 days sounds in Israel

No reports of injuries or damage after siren sounds in border town; IDF says dozens of Hamas terrorists killed in past day, with most intense fighting concentrated in Khan Younis

By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
and TOI STAFF25 January 2024, 1:09 pm

Smoke rises after apparent Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis as seen from Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, January 24, 2024. (Abed Rahim Khatib/Flash90)

Israel Defense Forces troops continued to battle Hamas terrorists in all parts of Gaza on Thursday, as air raid alarms marked the first time in almost four days that projectiles were apparently launched from the Strip toward Israel.

Sirens were activated in the evacuated border community of Netiv Ha’asara, with no reports of injuries or damage. The previous alerts near Gaza had sounded on Sunday afternoon.

Israeli troops have come under Hamas rocket and mortar fire during operations inside the Gaza Strip, which have at times also set off alarms in border communities.

The number of rocket attacks on Israeli cities has gone down significantly in recent weeks, as troops push deeper into the Strip.

The IDF said Thursday afternoon that troops of its elite Commando Brigade were establishing operational control in “the heart of” Khan Younis, amid a major offensive led by the 98th Division against Hamas in the southern Gaza Strip city.

In a statement, the IDF said the brigade was “continuing the offensive in the Khan Younis area, and is deepening the operational control of the Hamas terrorists’ stronghold.”

The IDF said that as troops advanced in the area, the commandos encountered many Hamas cells, which were “eliminated with sniper fire, guided missiles, and tank shelling.”

In what the IDF described as a special operation carried out by snipers from the brigade’s Egoz unit over the course of a number of hours, several Hamas operatives were killed after being tricked into coming out of tunnels in the Khan Younis area, according to the army.

In other incidents, Egoz troops spotted three Hamas gunmen and targeted them with an Iron Sting guided mortar, and killed four more operatives in close-quarters combat as the commandos raided a building, the IDF said.

The Commando Brigade’s Maglan unit, meanwhile, raided a command center belonging to the head of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s intelligence unit and a Hamas command center in Khan Younis, the IDF said.

This image released by the IDF on January 25, 2024, shows troops of the Commando Brigade operating in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis. (Israel Defense Forces)

In the command centers, the IDF said the troops seized weapons and military equipment, as well as maps and other “valuable” intelligence information.

Maglan commandos also killed “many terrorists during intensive battles” in the Khan Younis area, the IDF added.

Earlier Thursday, the IDF said that snipers from the 98th Division’s Paratroopers Brigade had taken out “many terrorists” in the al-Amal neighborhood of Khan Younis.

According to the army, dozens of Hamas operatives were killed in the previous 24 hours across the Strip, including 10 Hamas gunmen, some of whom were armed with RPGs, killed in two separate airstrikes in Khan Younis.

Palestinians stand amid the rubble of buildings destroyed in Israeli bombardment in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on January 25, 2024, amid continuing battles between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. (Photo by AFP)

The military published footage that it said shows an attack helicopter striking a building and killing gunmen who had opened fire on reservists of the Yiftah Brigade in central Gaza.

In northern Gaza, where troops were conducting mop-up operations to locate Hamas’s remaining infrastructure, the IDF said reservists of the 5th Brigade had encountered and killed several gunmen, also locating weapons.

On Wednesday, the IDF said it was investigating a deadly strike on a United Nations shelter in southern Gaza that reportedly killed nine people and injured 75, but noted it may have been caused by an errant Hamas rocket.

In their biggest operation in a month, Israeli tanks pushed through Khan Younis, where many Palestinians sheltered after leaving the north — the early focus of the war. Large numbers of Palestinians have now moved further south to Rafah, per Israeli instructions.

The IDF’s main target appears to be the area around Khan Younis’s long-standing refugee camp, which includes the Nasser and Al-Amal hospitals and also the UNRWA training center that was hit on Wednesday.

Protesters near the Kerem Shalom crossing with Gaza on January 25, 2024. (Eli Katzoff/Times of Israel)

Meanwhile, a small group of Israeli protesters, including relatives of hostages held in Gaza, attempted to reach the Kerem Shalom crossing in order to picket trucks going in, demanding that aid be cut off until the captives are freed.

A day earlier, protesters successfully blocked the crossing for hours, preventing the entry of 51 aid trucks.

Part of Thursday’s group was initially stopped by a roadblock but then made it through, walking several kilometers toward the crossing for the second day in a row. Other protesters were reportedly at the crossing already.

Among the approximately three dozen protesting was Danny Elgarat, a former Ashdod police commander whose brother Itzik Elgarat and brother-in-law Alex Danzig were kidnapped from Nir Oz.

“Nobody can stop us… from blocking the trucks in Gaza,” Elgarat said. “The prime minister didn’t do it, so we will do it instead of him.”

Protesters walking toward the Kerem Shalom crossing with Gaza on January 25, 2024. (Eli Katzoff/Times of Israel)

Israel has razed nearly 40 percent of the 2,824 buildings in Gaza located within a kilometer of the border, according to a Hebrew University study cited by The Wall Street Journal.

The demolition moves appeared to be part of a plan to build a kilometer-wide (0.6-mile) buffer zone inside the Strip.

Near Khan Younis, where the border zone is most densely populated, some 67 percent of buildings have been destroyed, according to the study by Prof. Adi Ben Nun, who analyzed satellite data to arrive at the figures.

Current and former officials told the Journal that some structures within the planned zone, which will vary in width depending on various factors, may be left in place.

Israeli soldiers overlook the Gaza Strip from a tank, as seen from southern Israel, January 19, 2024. (AP/Maya Alleruzzo)

At least 25,700 Gazans have been killed in the war, the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said Wednesday, an unverified figure which is believed to include close to 10,000 Hamas operatives Israel said it has killed during fighting in the Strip, as well as civilians killed by misfired Palestinian rockets. Two hundred and nineteen IDF soldiers have been killed in the Gaza ground offensive.

Israel launched its offensive on Hamas following the terror group’s murderous rampage through communities and a music festival in southern Israel on October 7, in which it killed close to 1,200 people and took another 253 hostages, 132 of whom are believed to still be held captive in Gaza.

Eli Katzoff contributed to this report.

END

TIMES OF ISRAEL

end

IRAN/IRAQ/USA

END

SYRIA/ISRAEL

end

LEBANON/ISRAEL

Rocket sirens activated in Lebanon border community for second time this evening

Today, 9:53 pm

For the second time this evening, an incoming rocket alert sounds in Moshav Zarit near the border with Lebanon.

end

WEST BANK/ISRAEL

END

ISRAEL//USA/

USA cost of military equipment to Israel from the start of the Gaza war; $1.6 billion dollars

(zerohedge)

US Military Build-Up Since Gaza War Began Has Cost $1.6 Billion

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 05:40 PM

Via The Libertarian Institute

The Senate is planning to add money to upcoming legislation to fund President Joe Biden’s military buildup in the Middle East and war in Yemen. Senator Susan Collins says the legation should be a priority as US Central Command is quickly depleting its funds. Senator Jack Reed believes Congress will need to pass multiple rounds of funding to allow Biden to wage war across the Middle East.

Following the Hamas attack on southern Israel, Biden ordered thousands of troops and multiple aircraft carrier strike groups into the region. Politico reports the Department of Defense informed Congress the deployment of additional troops and warships to the Middle East over the past four months has cost $1.6 billion. The Pentagon estimates the cost will be $2.2 billion over the course of the year.

The cost estimates do not include the price of the interceptors and munitions used in fighting the Houthis. Congress has not authorized Biden’s war in Yemen or the military surge in the Middle East. A growing number of American lawmakers, including within Biden’s party, have voiced opposition to the White House waging a war in Yemen without Congressional authorization.

A Pentagon official said at some point, the holes in the Department of Defense budget will have to be filled by Congress. An official told Politico, “It will be, I think, a hole that we would want to be filled. It is a bill that will be due and we will have to pay for it within a limited amount of resources.”

The Senate is now preparing to fund the conflicts in the Middle East, but there are no plans to authorize the war. Politico reports Congress is considering several options for authorizing the war spending. The outlet explains, “Lawmakers are aware of the unplanned cost and are weighing how to pay for it. Options include adding it to the annual spending bill, adding it to the $111 billion emergency supplemental for Ukraine and Israel, or funding it through a stand-alone supplemental for war costs.”

The White House has been pushing Congress to pass a $111 billion bill that provides funding for the wars in Ukraine and Israel, the military buildup in the Asia-Pacific, and border security. The legislation has been delayed for several months over debate on immigration policy.

Sen. Collins, a Republican member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is urging the body to take action. “[US Central Command] needs [the funding] sooner. They’re fast running out of funds,” she said.

Some ~~delusional~~ wishful thinking in the Pentagon press briefing room…

The US has attacked Yemen nearly every day over the past week and the Pentagon says the “fight between Israel and Hamas continues to remain contained in Gaza.”

Ken Klippenstein

@kenklippenstein

Q: “Don’t all of these attacks suggest that the war has done exactly what the U.S. didn’t want it to do early on, in that it has expanded?” Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder: “No, we currently assess that the fight between Israel and Hamas continues to remain contained in Gaza.”

12:38 PM · Jan 21, 2024

Senator Jack Reed believes Congress will have to pass multiple rounds of funding to fight wars in the Middle East. He said, “I sense, given the unexpected cost, that there will have to be a separate supplemental. These aren’t routine costs. They’re because of our reaction to the Houthi disruption, to Iranian malign behavior, etc. And I think that’s probably where we would go for it.”

Senators Dan Sullivan, Mitch McConnell, and Mark Kelley have all called for adding money to the supplemental war legislation to replace the interceptors and munitions used to fight the Houthis in Yemen.

END

HOUTHIS/USA/WEST/

Houthi Rebels Fire Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile “Toward” US Arleigh-Burke Class Destroyer

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 09:45 AM

In a statement on social media platform X, US Central Command said Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired an anti-ship ballistic missile “toward” the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.

“On Jan. 26, at approximately 1:30 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired one anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward Arleigh-Burke class destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) in the Gulf of Aden. The missile was successfully shot down by USS Carney. There were no injuries or damage reported,” US Centcom wrote.

This comes after the US-led coalition stepped up airstrikes this week to suppress rebels in Yemen from conducting drone and missile attacks on commerical vessels in the Red Sea.

… and so much for President Biden on keeping America out of “forever wars” in the Middle East.

Also, the president’s Operation Prosperity Guardian to use America’s military might in the Red Sea to shield commercial vessels from drone and missile attacks has yet to quell the violence.

Earlier this week, the global corporate & investment banking capital markets strategy team at MUFG Bank provided clients with wonderful visualizations that show how rising geopolitical tension could jeopardize global maritime chokepoints.

MUFG analysts show between the Suez Canal, Bab-El-Mandes, and Strait of Hormuz, about 25% of global trade (2019 figures) flows through the three areas.

A separate report shows how Red Sea disruptions have sparked “out-of-control” commercial shipping rates that could drive the next supply-drive inflation shock.

Here comes the next supply-driven inflation shock

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

MUFG’s key investment theme this year is “Higher friction geopolitics.”

END

About time:

US pauses UNRWA funding amid probe of staff involved in October 7 massacre

UNRWA Commissioner-General says these allegations are “shocking.”

By HANNAH SARISOHN, REUTERSJANUARY 26, 2024 15:28Updated: JANUARY 26, 2024 18:48

Palestinians protest demanding compensation for damaged homes in the 2014 war, outside the headquarters of UNRWA, in Gaza City, on September 5, 2022 (photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90) — Palestinians protest demanding compensation for damaged homes in the 2014 war, outside the headquarters of UNRWA, in Gaza City, on September 5, 2022(photo credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-783873&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20240125_df673717828359f2aeb5276f8a2bc4925a102f24&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140

The US Department of State announced it’s temporarily pausing additional funding for the The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) after allegations that employees may have been involved in the attacks on Oct. 7, according to a statement on Friday from department spokesman Matthew Miller.

“The United States is extremely troubled by the allegations that twelve UNRWA employees may have been involved in the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. The Department of State has temporarily paused additional funding for UNRWA while we review these allegations and the steps the United Nations is taking to address them,” according to the statement.

Miller said Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Thursday to emphasize the necessity of a thorough and swift investigation of this matter.

“We welcome the decision to conduct such an investigation and Secretary General Guterres’ pledge to take decisive action to respond, should the allegations prove accurate,” according to the statement. “We also welcome the UN’s announcement of a ‘comprehensive and independent’ review of UNRWA.”

Miller said there must be complete accountability for anyone who participated in the heinous attacks of Oct. 7.

People enter the State Department Building in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2017. (credit: REUTERS/JOSHUA ROBERTS)

Miller said UNRWA plays a critical role in providing essential food, medicine, shelter, and other humanitarian support to Palestinians.

The statement said it’s important for UNRWA to address these allegations and take any appropriate corrective measures. Advertisement

Miller said the US has reached out to the Israeli government to seek more information about the allegations and that members of congress have also been briefed.

The US State Department had recently praised UNRWA’s work, and the administration of Joe Biden restored funding that was halted during Donald Trump’s tenure.

In response to the allegations against UNRWA employees, US Senate Republicans were critical of Biden’s move to fund the agency.

“For years I have warned the Biden administration about resuming funding to UNRWA, which has a history of employing people connected to terrorist movements like Hamas,” Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on Friday.

Probe into UNRWA

The United Nations Palestinian agency (UNRWA) said on Friday it had opened a probe into the alleged involvement of several of its employees in the Oct. 7 attacks in southern Israel by Hamas, and that it had severed ties with these staff members.

“The Israeli authorities have provided UNRWA with information about the alleged involvement of several UNRWA employees in the horrific attacks on Israel on October 7,” said Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA Commissioner-General.

“To protect the agency’s ability to deliver humanitarian assistance, I have taken the decision to immediately terminate the contracts of these staff members and launch an investigation in order to establish the truth without delay.” Lazzarini did not disclose the number of employees allegedly involved in the attacks, nor the nature of their alleged involvement.

He said, however, that “any UNRWA employee who was involved in acts of terror” would be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution.

UNRWA says allegations are shocking

Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, has been briefed about the allegations, his spokesperson said.

Palestinian employees of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) take part in a protest against job cuts by UNRWA, in Gaza City September 19, 2018. (credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)

“The Secretary-General is horrified by this news,” said spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

Dujarric added that the U.N. chief had asked Lazzarini to conduct a probe to ensure that any UNRWA employee shown to have participated or abetted the Oct. 7 attacks be terminated immediately and referred for potential criminal prosecution.

“An urgent and comprehensive independent review of UNRWA will be conducted,” Dujarric added.

UNRWA, established in 1949 following the first Arab-Israeli war, provides services including schooling, primary healthcare and humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

UNRWA has provided aid and used its facilities to shelter people fleeing bombardment and a ground offensive launched by Israel in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attacks, in which Israel says 1,200 people were killed and 253 people taken hostage.

“These shocking allegations come as more than 2 million people in Gaza depend on lifesaving assistance that the agency has been providing since the war began,” Lazzarini said.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell issued a statement that the European Union is in contact with UNRWA, and expects it to provide full transparency on the allegations and to take immediate measures against staff involved.

The Commission will assess further steps and draw lessons based on the result of the full and comprehensive investigation, the statement said.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Another Ukrainian drone strikes a huge Russian oil refinery

(zerohedge)

Another Russian Oil Refinery Engulfed In Fire After Drone Attack From Ukraine

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 07:20 PM

Ukraine government sources have continued to boast of launching drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting especially the country’s energy infrastructure.

Reuters on Thursday cited an unidentified Ukrainian source to say that a successful drone attack was carried out against a Rosneft-owned oil refinery in southern Russia on the Black Sea. Local authorities acknowledged the fresh attack, describing that it set off a fire which though appeared very large, was reportedly quickly extinguished.

Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, the Russian Rosneft oil refinery is currently burning.

4:37 PM · Jan 24, 2024

337.4K Views

The export-oriented unit in the town of Tuapse was impacted in the strike, with the head of Tuapse district describing, “The vacuum unit was on fire. According to preliminary information, there were neither casualties nor injured.” The attack also appeared confirmed by widely circulating social media images.

The Ukrainian source said it was the work of Ukraine’s security services (SBU), which has alongside the military launched probably literally of hundreds such cross-border attacks since the war began nearly two years ago.

The Tuapse plant has an annual capacity of 12 million metric tons (or averaging 240,000 barrels per day) and supplies fuel chiefly to China, Turkey, Malaysia and Singapore, Reuters noted.

Ukraine kicked off the week with an earlier significant attack on Russia’s energy infrastructure, resulting in Novatek having announced it was forced to suspend some operations at its huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal on Sunday due to a fire started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack at the PJSC gas-condensate plant in the port Ust-Luga.

That had also been the result of a special operation carried out by the SBU, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency emphasized.

These spate of attacks in recent days and weeks targeting Russian energy facilities, raise questions about the quality of Russian air defense systems around key infrastructure facilities, or if they are present at all for that matter.

Russian oil exports made up about 30% of the country’s budget revenues. As of 2023, Russia became China’s number one oil supplier, taking the top spot long held by Saudi Arabia.

“The current attacks are still small in size, using a handful of drones, but already caused considerable damage. When Ukraine starts mass-hitting those ports, then the Russian air defense will not be able to stop the outcome.”

Video shows one of Russia’s largest oil refineries on fire after drone hit

From newsweek.com

Kiev is actively seeking to impose a cost on this vital Russian industry needed to fuel its ongoing military operations in Ukraine:

A source in Ukraine’s Security Service told the Kyiv Post that the successful assault on the oil terminal in Ust-Luga “not only inflicts substantial economic harm on the enemy, disrupting their revenue streams for the war in Ukraine, but also disrupts the logistical chain of fuel essential to the Russian military.

“This move strategically hampers the occupiers’ ability to sustain their forces, marking a significant setback in their ongoing aggression,” the source added.

However, there are little to no signs of setback along the frontlines, and in the Donbass, where Russia’s military grip over territory hasn’t really changed over the past six months to a year.

end

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

END

OTHER MEDICAL VACCINE INJURY/CANCER REPORTS

ROBERT H TO US;

A demented fool.

Died Suddenly on X: “Speaking from the WEF’s annual Davos summit, Bill Gates excitedly announces all the new vaccines he has up his sleeve, ready to unleash on the world, stating: “We will have new vaccines… We need to make them have longer duration, more coverage, and we’re gonna change—instead… https://t.co/3nEBfIT8Ao”

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Forensic analysis of 38 subject deaths shared by Corinne Michels Writer Science Rules by Corinne Michels, found evidence of an over 3.7-fold increase in number of deaths due to cardiovascular events

in Pfizer (BNT162b2) vaccinated subjects compared to Placebo controls. This significant adverse event signal was not reported by Pfizer/BioNTech.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 25

READ IN APP

https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/86/224

‘study is a forensic analysis of the 38 trial subjects who died between July 27, 2020, the start of Phase 2/3 of the clinical trial, and March 13, 2021, the end date of theofficial6-Month Interim Report.

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribed

Phase 2/3 of the trial involved 44,060subjects who were equally distributed into two groups and received dose1 of either the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or a placebo consisting of a 0.9% normal salinesolution. At week 20, when the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine received Emergency Use Authorization from the US FDA, subjects in the placebo arm were given the option to receive the BNT162b2 vaccine and switch to the vaccinatedgroup.

Of the reported 20,794 unblinded placebo subjects, 19,685 received at least one dose of BNT162b2 vaccine. Surprisingly, a comparison of the number of subject deaths per week during the 33 weeks of this study found no significant difference between the number of deaths in the vaccinated versus placebo arms for the first 20 weeks of the trial—the placebo-controlled portion of the trial. After week 20, as subjects in the placebogroupwere unblinded,and after the majority of them received a BNT162b2 injection, deaths among those sticking with the placebo slowed and eventually plateaued.

Deaths in the BNT162b2 vaccinated subjects continued at the same rate. Our analysis revealsinconsistencies between the subject data listed in the 6-Month Interim Report and in publications authored by Pfizer/BioNTech trial site administrators.

Most importantly, we found evidence of an over 3.7-fold increase in number of deaths due to cardiacevents in the BNT162b2 vaccinated individualscompared to those who received only the placebo.’

end

Would we need a flu shot or any shot including COVID if you had 50 ng/mL (125 nmol/L) circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D daily (vitamin D)? No! Anderson et al. looked at flu vaccine on hospitlization and

death in the elderly (Annals of Internal Medicine); researchers found no evidence indicating that flu vaccination reduced hospitalizations or mortality among elderly persons (55 to 75 years old)

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 26

READ IN APP

Results:

‘The data included 170 million episodes of care and 7.6 million deaths. Turning 65 was associated with a statistically and clinically significant increase in rate of seasonal influenza vaccination.

However, no evidence indicated that vaccination reduced hospitalizations or mortality among elderly persons. The estimates were precise enough to rule out results from many previous studies. Limitation: The study relied on observational data, and its focus was limited to individuals near age 65 years.

Conclusion: Current vaccination strategies prioritizing elderly persons may be less effective than believed at reducing serious morbidity and mortality in this population, which suggests that supplementary strategies may be necessary.’

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

2022-2023 Vaccine Provided Little Protection Against Influenza

By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH Almost like Christmas time for the Influenza vaccine companies, the CDC declared National Influenza Vaccination Week from December 4-8, 2023, a “reminder for everyone 6 months and older that there’s still time to get a flu vaccine this season.” Many of my patients ask, does the flu-shot really work? For any therapeutic…

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NEWS ADDICT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Sticking The Landing?

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 11:40 AM

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

US data further added to markets’ optimism that the Fed may be able to achieve a soft landing after all. Q4 GDP beat expectations by a wide margin. The 3.3% growth rate adds to the unexpected strength in the third quarter. Part of this upside surprise was driven by volatile components such as inventory building and net exports. Still, consumer expenditures accounted for the majority of growth in the final quarter of 2023, while business investment expanded at a moderate pace. While that’s again a recession delayed, we’re not convinced that it is cancelled. The GDP report paints a sharp contrast to survey-based data, which point to a cooling of the US economy.

But President Lagarde was the main mover of markets yesterday. The ECB kept rates on hold, as widely expected. However, against expectations, and contrary to the concerted effort by hawks and doves alike in the week prior to the meeting, President Lagarde gave much less pushback against market pricing. Markets interpreted this as distinctly dovish and yields dropped across the board.

The ECB president did indicate that the Council agreed it is too early to discuss rate cuts. The disinflationary process needs to advance further before the Council can be sure that inflation will hit their 2% target in a sustainable manner. That said, policymakers appear to have turned a bit more optimistic about the expected path of inflation. Lagarde summarized that the incoming data had largely confirmed the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook, and that the declining trend in underlying inflation had broadly continued. Domestic inflation is the key exception, though. ECB insiders suggested to Reuters that discussions could start in March, if the data suggest inflation is heading for 2% this year already. That’s quite the big caveat.

Over the past months, inflation has indeed turned out better than anticipated. But we’re not entirely convinced that underlying inflation is converging to target just as quickly as the ECB seems to expect. Domestic inflation, which Lagarde called the exception to the rule, underscores the risk that wage demands and profit margins could slow the disinflationary process.

The ECB acknowledges that the labour market remains tight, but sees the decline in the number of vacancies as a sign that the demand for labour is weakening. The Council expects this to gradually soften wage demands. Moreover, Lagarde sounded quite optimistic that firms are absorbing the higher wage costs by lowering their margins.

However, the PMI survey released earlier this week does not support that conclusion. The report noted that “service sector cost growth accelerated during the month, contributing to the steepest overall rise in prices charged for goods and services since last May.” Whilst the Eurozone-wide survey offered no further explanation for this rise in input costs, German respondents pointed to the influence of wage demands. Employers remain reluctant to layoff part of their workforce, particularly in the services sector. Employees are making good use of this to negotiate above-average pay increases. A similar dynamic is still the most plausible explanation for the rising input costs reported by employers in the services sector in other euro area countries.

Additionally, the increase in prices charged suggests that companies are still able to pass most of these costs on to the end user. That’s a red flag for two of the items on Lagarde’s disinflation ‘shopping list’: wage developments and profit margins.

Moreover, policymakers still expect a consumer-led recovery to begin in the course of 2024. High employment, wage increases and lower inflation should support disposable incomes and consumption. However, if that is the case, shouldn’t the ECB also expect the recent decline in vacancies to come to a halt? And doesn’t this mean that employees may have a structurally higher bargaining power than before, while the existence of demand allows companies to pass on part of these costs to the end user?

Given these risks, we had expected the ECB to remain more cautious. This caution is implicitly embedded in the ECB’s data-dependent approach. Yet, the lesser emphasis on the upside risks sticks out like a sore thumb, as evidenced by yesterday’s price action.

And those are just the domestic risks. Hamas and Israel haven’t yet been able to agree to the conditions of any ceasefire, and so the conflict in the Middle East continues. Houthi attacks have already led to a sharp increase in shipping costs since the turn of the year, particularly for routes between Asia and Europe. That makes it a particular risk for supply chains and prices on the European continent. That makes it all the more remarkable that Lagarde seemed to downplay the cost-push risk from developments in the Red Sea.

Reuters reported that China is now pressing Iran to tell the Houthis to rein in their attacks. Until now, China had remained on the side-lines of the conflict. The Houthis weren’t targeting Chinese vessels, and China probably doesn’t mind that they are keeping the US navy occupied. But, of course, not all Chinese exports are being transported on Chinese ships. So the attacks could still harm the country’s economic interests. Given the domestic issues that are still plaguing the Chinese economy, Beijing probably wants to avoid that external demand drops as well. And not just in the short term. Supply chain resilience has been a concern since the trade disruptions during the pandemic, leading to diversification away from China. Concerns about the relationship between China and the West are doing the same. A prolonged disruption of the Red Sea shipping route may only accelerate these processes.

Because domestically, things are still not looking too bright. Through last Monday the Hang Seng index had lost over 12% year to date. The index being at the lowest level in 19 years triggered government interventions. Beijing proposed to use cash in offshore accounts of state-owned enterprises to support the stock market – throwing good money after bad.

And the PBOC will cut the reserve requirement ratio. The reduction in banks’ required reserve holdings should, in theory, increase banks’ capacity to extend new loans. However, that does require demand for credit. And for these banks it requires that the expected returns outweigh the potential risks. Both are questionable at best, given the already high indebtedness of the various sectors of the Chinese economy.

The announced measures have stemmed the bleeding – for now. The Hang Seng index has recovered 6.6% since Monday. But it remains to be seen how durable this rebound is. Worse, the support measures came too late for many households. Many retail traders invested in callable contracts, rather than the underlying equities. The sharp decline in the index had already wiped out these structured notes. This week’s rebound only rubs salt in the wounds: retail traders that saw their contracts getting called have not benefitted from this week’s rebound. Bloomberg estimates that retail traders have lost roughly $1.6 billion. This does not bode too well for consumer confidence and consumer spending, which were already weak to begin with

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE

IDIOT!

Biden Set To Announce New LNG Export Ban After White House Met With Gen-Z Climate Warrior

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Global warming warriors in the White House plan to announce a new strategy later today: freeze new export permits for liquified natural gas (LNG) until the Department of Energy (DoE) can figure out climate impacts.

In a statement released on the White House briefing website, President Biden said early Friday:

My Administration is announcing today a Bidentemporary pause on pending decisions of Liquefied Natural Gas exports – with the exception of unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.

During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment. This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.

Biden (or maybe his speech writers) justified the new strategy by hyping climate doom, indicating, “In every corner of the country and the world, people are suffering the devastating toll of climate change.”

Furthermore, the president said, “Wildfires destroying whole neighborhoods and forcing families to leave their communities behind. Record temperatures affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans, especially the most vulnerable.”

According to The New York Times, ahead of the decision, the Biden team met with Alex Haraus, a 25-year-old Colorado social media influencer who has led a social media campaign against LNG projects in the Gulf.

Climate warriors in the Biden administration are walking a dangerous line ahead of the election to appease environmentalists. At the same time, this move could jeopardize LNG production and harm the economy and even national security.

Bloomberg warned:

“The pause is set to at least temporarily stall projects in development, including Commonwealth LNG, Energy Transfer LP, and Venture Global LNG Inc. facilities planned in Louisiana.”

And, of course, the president had to blame “MAGA Republicans” for “willfully denying the urgency of the climate crisis” and “condemning the American people to a dangerous future.” Biden also noted, “We will not cede to special interests.”

Nearly three dozen oil and gas groups warned in a letter Wednesday to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm that Biden’s move is a “major mistake”:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/701579899/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-ollI79IuSfj9ri4jn2XF

Is the Biden admin now taking orders from Gen-Z climate warriors living in their parent’s basements? And we wonder how Europe will feel about their energy security… as Biden continues to pressure Putin?

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA//

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0871 UP .0025

USA/ YEN 147.70 DOWN .021 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2737 UP .0032

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3439 DOWN .0041 (CDN DOLLAR UP 41 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.11 PTS OR 0.14%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 259.73 PTS OR 1.60%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.48% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 253.73 PTS OR 1.60%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.11 PTS OR 0.14%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.48%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 385.40 OR 1.34%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2021.80

silver:$22.88

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.09 DOWN 28 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.011% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.710% DOWN 3 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.211 UP 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.831 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3075 UP 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0861 UP 0.0015 or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 148.07 UP 0.356 OR YEN DOWN 36 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2724 UP .0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0042 OR 42 BASIS pts to 1.3438

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1774

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1847)

TURKISH LIRA: 30.32 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.710…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.157% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.388 UP 1 in basis points /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.351 UP 4 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 105.70 PTS OR 1.40%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 54.47 PTS OR 0.32%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 169.94 PTS OR 2.28%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 20.20 PTS OR 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 221.53 PTS OR 0.73%

WTI Oil price 77.52 12: EST

Brent Oil: 82.29 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.78; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 89//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3075 UP 2 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.018 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0858 UP .0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2705 DOWN .0001 or 1 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.001 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.705%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.06 UP 0.341//YEN DOWN 34 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3449 DOWN 0.0031 CDN dollar UP 31 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 78.06

Brent OIL: 83.66

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.149%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.381%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 4.359%

USA dollar index: 103.22 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.31 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.74 DOWN 0 AND 85/100 roubles

GOLD 2018,50 3:30 PM

SILVER: 22.80 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 60.37 PTS OR 0.16%

NASDAQ DOWN 95.98 PTS OR 0.55%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.29 DOWN .16 PTS OR 1.19%

GLD: $187,01 DOWN 0.13 OR 0.069%

SLV/ $20.87 DOWN 0.07 OR 0.33%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Bounce As Economic ‘Animal Spirits’ Wreck Rate-Cut Hype

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 04:00 PM

While the micro (earnings) has been more mixed (NFLX/IBM good, INTC/TSLA bad), the macro has been a one-way street of ‘no-landing-narrative’ awesomeness this week…

Source: Bloomberg

But that shouldn’t be a surprise since we warned that the lagged impact of the massive loosening of financial conditions was set to ignite ‘animal spirits’ – and with it, the end of any “soft”-landing narrative with the potential for re-acceleration of inflation…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that has pushed rate-cut expectations lower (hawkishly), with a 45% chance of a cut in March and 133bps of cuts in 2024 (down from 85% and 165bps just over a week ago)…

Source: Bloomberg

Do investors really expect The Fed to cut with GDP (and PCE) expectations surging once again?

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s oil trading was extremely technical as a first surge perfectly tagged the 200DMA, prompted a run-stop sell-down, then a rebound back off $75 sent WTI back to the highs…

The growthiness and ongoing shitshow in the Middle East pushed WTI to its best week since September, with its highest weekly close since the first week of November.

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended the week higher too, surging back above $42,000 today after an almost endless stream of selling since the spot ETFs were unleashed…

Source: Bloomberg

We note two things in crypto-land:

1) GBTC outflows are slowing…

and 2) all the selling in the underlying bitcoin has been focused (since the ETFs began trading) during the US equity trading session… Is that constant pressure about to abate?

US equity markets rallied on the week once more – ignoring higher yields, lower rate-cut expectations – as Small Caps outperformed (following a very similar pattern every day) while The Dow and Nasdaq lagged (though still closed green on the week)…

The S&P 500 (cash) tried and failed 3 times this week to close above 4900 as heavy gamma turned it back each time…

Energy stocks soared almost 5% on the week while Consumer Discretionary was the biggest loser…

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t forget – the mega-cap tech names report in the next week…

Treasury yields were all up today but mixed on the week with the long-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Which meant the yield curve (2s30s) steepened on the week (4th weekly steepening on the last 5), closing back above zero once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) went nowhere on the week, hovering around $2020…

Source: Bloomberg

And the dollar also ended very modestly higher on the week with some good chop midweek around The ECB…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, “you are here” in the dotcom meltup analog…

Source: Bloomberg

With The Fed confirming the end of its BTFP facility (and RRP withdrawals accelerating), March is lining up for something big (especially if The Fed doesn’t cut as so many hope).

END

MORNING TRADING//

end

AFTERNOON TRADING

II USA DATA

RRP (REVERSE REPO POOL) DOWN TO 557 BILLION DOWN 81 BILLION DOLLARS. WE ARE LOSING 80 BILLION DOLLARS PER WEEK. THERE ARE 7 WEEKS BEFORE MARCH 11: 80 X 7 WEEKS = 560 BILLION.

Bank Bailout Fund ‘Arb’ Usage Soars (Again) Amid Money-Market Fund Outflows, Large RRP Drain

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 04:41 PM

Money-market fund assets fell for a second week in a row, led by the departure of assets from institutional funds, as investors continued to reallocate portfolios in the new year.

Outflows were only a very modest $1.38BN last week, but still an outflow (on top of the prior week’s $14

Source: Bloomberg

Retail funds continued to see inflows (again) of $5.0BN while institutional funds saw a $6.4BN outflow…

Source: Bloomberg

In a breakdown for the week to Jan. 24, government funds – which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt – saw assets fall to $4.857 trillion, a $5.03 billion decline.

Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets rise to $986.38 billion, an $8.10 billion increase.

For the second week in the last three, The Fed’s balance sheet expanded last week (+$3.5BN)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed declined last week but that didn’t stop stocks from reaching new cycle highs in market cap…

Source: Bloomberg

Usage of The Fed’s Bank bailout facility increased by another $6.3BN last week, that makes over $54BN since the BTFP Arb started in early December.

But that is it for the ‘arb’ flows – from here, any increase in usage is pure banking system stress.

But, as we noted last night, with just two months until the March threat looming, the Fed has changed the terms on the BTFP to kill the free-money arb.

“…the interest rate applicable to new BTFP loans has been adjusted such that the rate on new loans extended from now through program expiration will be no lower than the interest rate on reserve balances in effect on the day the loan is made.

This rate adjustment ensures that the BTFP continues to support the goals of the program in the current interest rate environment. This change is effective immediately. All other terms of the program are unchanged.”

Additionally, The Fed made clear that the entire BTFP program is being scrapped on March 11, just as we said it will be as one of our preconditions for a very exciting March:

March will be lit: 1. Reverse repo ends 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly)

10:35 AM · Jan 8, 2024

578.2K Views

This is what the Fed said: “The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The program will continue to make loans until that time and is available as an additional source of liquidity for eligible institutions.”

And just as we predicted a few days ago when reporting on the Fed’s sudden infatuation with the discount window…

*US PLANS TO PUSH MORE BANKS TO USE THE FED’S DISCOUNT WINDOW translation: many more banks will HAVE to use the discount window… right after the BTFP expires

4:02 PM · Jan 18, 2024

… the Fed is now saying that all liquidity needs going forward will be met by the discount window (the same one that precipitated the global financial crisis back in 2008).

During a period of stress last spring, the Bank Term Funding Program helped assure the stability of the banking system and provide support for the economy. After March 11, banks and other depository institutions will continue to have ready access to the discount window to meet liquidity needs.

Can the discount window cope with the sudden need for over $147 Billion?

Last week saw usage of the discount window rise $189 Million to $2.295 Billion…

What do you think?

And that March expiration of the facility lines up with another potential crisis moment for the banking system – The Fed’s Reverse Repo facility being drawn down to zero (down a whopping $81BN today alone) – at which point reserves get yanked which means huge deposit flight, and a restart of the banking crisis, more liquidity injections, rate cuts, end of QT and so on.

We leave with one question –

Jan 8

March will be lit: 1. Reverse repo ends 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly)

Watch the SOFR-O/N RRP Spread for signs of stress…

Key things to keep an eye on are re-increases in the RRP, indicating extra reserves are being taken back out of the system, or a rising take-up in the Fed’s standing repo facility, which would point to potential funding problems. All said and done, don’t put your spanner away yet, knowing how to plumb remains an essential skill.

END

REVERSE REPO POLL TONIGHT: 557.687 BILLION DOWN 81 BILLION DOLLARS IN ONE WEEK/

Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations (RRPONTSYD)

DOWNLOAD

Observation:2024-01-25: 557.687(+ more) Updated: 1:01 PM CST

Units:Billions of US Dollars,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

EDIT GRAPH

END

The real truth behind the supposedly great USA GDP numbers:

(zerohedge)

The GDP Number Was Great… There Is Just One Huge Problem

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 10:40 PM

Earlier today we reported that according to Biden’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the fourth quarter US GDP grew at a torrid 3.3% pace, which was a 5-sigma beat to consensus estimate of 2.0% and also came in well above the highest Wall Street forecast. We also laid out the components that accounted for the growth: mostly the lack of inventory destocking (which means growth will be subtracted in Q1 instead), a bizarre jump in exports despite the soaring dollar, and last but not least, a jump in healthcare spending and a surge in RV purchases.

Yes, bizarre, but whether the GDP growth number was realistic or not (spoiler alert: the latter) is less important than what funded said growth. And it is here that we reveal something shocking: the chart below shows the Q4 change in GDP in nominal dollars as well as the corresponding increases in the US budget deficit (because the last time the US actually had a surplus was last century) and the increase in debt.

The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth… and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth!

Needless to say, this is unsustanable, and is why even the St Louis Fed FRED database now admits that total Federal interest payments have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever (and are about to go exponential).

So the next time you read something like this from the imposter in the White House…

JOE BIDEN:

“Today we learned that our economy grew 3.1% last year – all while adding another 2.7 million jobs and with core inflation moving back down towards the pre-pandemic benchmark. That means wages, wealth, and employment are now higher now than they were before the pandemic.”

The Wall Street Journal

@WSJ

·Breaking: The U.S. economy grew 3.1% over the last year as strong consumer spending and hiring upended recession fears https://on.wsj.com/495H4qG

14h

Breaking: The U.S. economy grew 3.1% over the last year as strong consumer spending and hiring upended recession fears https://on.wsj.com/495H4qG https://on.wsj.com/495H4qG

… respond that today we also learned that our debt grew by $2.581 trillion last year. This means that every dollar in GDP growth cost $1.69 in new debt, and also means that every new job cost futures generations of Americans $957,100.48.

Oh, and before we forget, a reminder that all US jobs created since 2019… have gone to foreign born workers.

END

Auto insurance rates are soaring at the fastest clip since the 70’s

(zerohedge)

Auto Insurance Rates Soar At Fastest Pace Since 1970s Inflation Spike

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 05:45 AM

Have you noticed a surge in your auto insurance premiums in the past few years?

Well, this could be why:

Bloomberg penned a note Thursday reminding everyone who legally drives with insurance why rates are skyrocketing. The main reason is the complexity of new vehicles.

“It’s the complexity of vehicles these days. Repairing a base model Kia is nothing like it was just a few years ago. It might have ten different computers and all kinds of sensors,” said Ben Clymer, who co-owns a chain of body shops in Southern California.

Clymer noted part prices are soaring and warned this “really creates the perfect storm for higher repair costs.” This has contributed to auto insurance rates rising the fastest since the inflation spike in the mid-1970s.

Soaring premiums are pressuring working poor households battered with elevated inflation, drained personal savings, and rising credit card debt to survive an era of failed ‘Bidenomics.’

Bloomberg pointed out: “But some drivers have been cutting costs by reducing their coverage and increasing the deductible they have to pay out of pocket for a repair. Rising rates are even pushing some people to choose older cars, which are less expensive to insure.”

“For the majority of people, auto insurance is definitely an afterthought,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at auto researcher Edmunds.com.

Caldwell continued: “But [for] anyone evaluating the total cost of ownership before purchasing, it may very well affect what they ultimately can buy and may even exclude them from the new car market.”

end

Savings Rate Slumps As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Hits 2 Handle

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 08:43 AM

One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – tumbled to +2.9% YoY in December (below the 3.0% exp and down from 3.2% in November) – the lowest since March 2021.

Headline PCE Deflator rose 0.2% MoM, holding at +2.6% YoY in December …

Source: Bloomberg

Even more focused, from The Fed’s perspective, is Services inflation ex-Shelter, and the PCE-equivalent shows that it has broken down from its ‘sticky’ levels to its lowest since March 2021 (thanks in larg epart to base effects). But, we did see a 0.3% MoM jump, considerably bigger than the last few months increases….

Source: Bloomberg

Income and Spending both rose MoM in December but spending significantly outpaced incomes (and expectations) – income +0.3% MoM (as expected), spending jumped 0.7% MoM (above 0.5% exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Spending is up 5.7% YoY, well ahead of income growth of only 4.7%…

Source: Bloomberg

And on the back of that, the savings rate tumbled from 4.1% of DPI to 3.7%…

Does that seem like a good thing?

Finally, while the markets are exuberant at the disinflation – and the coming Fed rate-cut avalanche – we do note that it’s not all sunshine and unicorns. The vast majority of the reduction in inflation has been ‘cyclical’…

Source: Bloomberg

Acyclical Core PCE inflation remains extremely high, although it has fallen from its highs.

Is The (apolitical) Fed really going to cut rates by 140bps next year with a background of strong growth (GDP) and still high Acyclical inflation?

end

Pending Home Sales Surge Most Since COVID-Lockdowns In December As Rates Tumbled

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 10:10 AM

Existing home sales tumbled to record lows (SAAR) in December, but new home sales rebounded (as new home prices rose), and analysts expect pending home sales to increase modestly in December (but be down on the year).

Well it did increase… spiking a ridonculous 8.3% MoM in December (from a downwardly revised 0.3%MoM decline in November). The rebound was not quite enough to turn sales green, ending -1% YoY…

That was the best MoM jump since June 2020 (but the 25th month in a row of YoY declines).

Source: Bloomberg

“The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Job additions and income growth will further help with housing affordability, but increased supply will be essential to satisfying all potential demand.”

And that crazy jump – as mortgage rates declined – pushed 2023’s annual pending home sales index HIGHER than 2022’s!

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR’s report showed the index of contract signings for existing homes jumped nearly 12% in the South, the biggest US housing market. That was the largest advance since June 2020. Pending sales also surged 14% in the West and climbed 5.6% in the Midwest.

The jump in pending sales reflects perfectly on the plunge in mortgage rates…

Source: Bloomberg

The pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Those sales are expected to increase 13% this year, according to NAR’s economic outlook, but as the chart shows, that trend of lower rates has stalled in January.

TUCKER CARLSON..

end

III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

END

SWAMP STORIES

TEXAS VS BIDEN

My goodness: is Biden going to war against Texas? 25 states have joined forces against Biden

(zerohedge)

War? 25 Red States Rally ‘Round Texas As Battle Brews With Biden Over Border

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 06:40 PM

A coalition of red states has rallied around Texas, after Governor Greg Abbott invoked the state’s constitutional right to self-defense due to the migrant crisis, which he deemed an ‘invasion.’

GREG ABBOTT:

The Biden Administration has truly abdicated its responsibility to enforce the immigration laws on the books. Texas has a constitutional right to defend and protect itself. We will continue to hold the line.

Holy shit. 25 Republican governors just signed a joint letter in support of the TX Resistance.

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The support began on Wednesday, with Governor Kevin Stitt tweeting: “Oklahoma stands with Texas.”

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“TX is upholding the law while Biden is flouting it,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

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And of course, the optics couldn’t be worse for the Biden administration – which is now faced with the prospect of going to war with Texas, during an election year, to keep the border open.

And Wall Street Silver pointed out on X, Texas is authorized to engage in war if being invaded according to Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3 of the Constitution.

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Though as X user blueapples points out, Abbott cited the dissenting (losing) position in Arizona v. United States which determined that federal law overrides state laws when it comes to regulating those who are unlawfully present in the US, except when it comes to a state’s right to require officers to verify the citizenship or alien status of detained migrants.

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Regardless, Abbott has drawn a line in the sand – and whatever litigation may play out in the courts is secondary to the fact that this is happening now.

As journalist Matt Walsh notes, “Abbott has Biden over a barrel here.”

“What is Biden going to do? Send the military in to forcibly open the border? In an election year?”

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(h/t Geller Report)

Meanwhile in Washington, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told fellow Republicans in a private meeting on Ukraine that time and the political will to pass a bipartisan immigration and border security compromise is running out, Punchbowl News reports.

According to the outlet:

McConnell told GOP senators that before border security talks began, immigration policy united Republicans and Ukraine aid divided them. “Politics on this have changed,” McConnell said of solving the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. That’s because former President Donald Trump wants to run his 2024 campaign focusing on immigration.

“We don’t want to do anything to undermine him,” McConnell said of Trump – effectively backing away from the ‘border-security-for-Ukraine’ construct that Republicans have been clinging to the last few months.

END

Watch: Gov. Abbott Tells Tucker He’s Not Backing Down, Expects Red States To Circle Wagons, & Trump Elected In November

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 02:39 PM

Texas Governor Greg Abbott spoke with Tucker Carlson on Friday, telling him that he’s going to “do as much as possible to put up more border barriers and deny illegal entry,” and that “our head is down we are working regardless of what the Biden Administration is doing.”

Abbott told Carlson that he’s “prepared” in the event that Biden tries to take over the Texas National Guard.

“That would be a boneheaded move on his part, a total disaster,” he said. “We are prepared, in the event that that unlikely event does occur.”

“We do have other armed state employees on the border as we speak right this minute, and that’s the Texas Department of Public Safety, as well as other law enforcement officers, as well as national Guard from other states. And you can be assured there will be more national Guard from other states and more law enforcement officers within the state of Texas and other states.”

Watch:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/country-has-been-invaded-ex-fbi-brass-pen-sobering-letter-over-new-and-imminent-danger

end

* * *

Tom Luongo, on the crazy stuff happening to Texas!

(Tom Luongo)

Soft Secession, Insurrection, Or The Real Return Of Federalism In Texas?

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 01:00 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

In this year’s public blog two-part extravaganza I went over my predictions for 2024 (here and here). In them I brought up the idea that ‘soft secession’ would make it’s way into the public conversation in both the US and Canada. It wasn’t really a tough call to make but it was something that needed to be discussed in the public sphere.

We saw the beginnings of this last year with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith declaring she would not be collecting carbon taxes to send to Ottawa to fund Chrystia Freeland’s dreams of destroying the country.

Smith is in the news again with her pledge to further defy Ottawa by announcing Alberta would be looking to double oil and gas production. She did so at an event with Tucker Carlson in Edmonton. I’m not sure how Smith is going to go about this, since I do not explicitly understand the legal limits she can defy Ottawa on this.

But this is a big deal. Smith isn’t the only one here. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe is following her lead on carbon taxes. This is a classic example of why we don’t need a majority of attack dogs to take on Davos and the rest of the globalists.

Not everyone is a leader, like Smith clearly is. Some are simply followers. They only make their move when someone else sticks their neck out first to find out whether it’ll get chopped off.

Many, including myself, admire Russian President Vladimir Putin for this exact reason. Donald Trump, in many ways, owes his popularity to this effect as well. It doesn’t matter if they make mistakes, are imperfect, or even fail to achieve ‘flawless victory.’ What matters is that they go first and lead on behalf of the people they are supposed to represent.

Back in 2019 Tucker Carlson made this exact point in one of his most important opening monologues:

By doing so they inspire others to take their first steps and what starts as a disgruntled handful of people bitching about the government around a campfire turns into a mass movement against tyranny.

This is exactly how the American Revolution started, in the pubs and meeting halls. It was the businessmen turned into smugglers and the farmers turned into sharecroppers that eventually put a critical mass of them into the same room hatching a plan to overthrow an absentee landlord of a king.

We’re seeing this all across the West. And if I have to give credit where credit is more than due then that credit goes to the ‘Gilet Jaunes’ or Yellow Vests of France. Remember them?

While they left the headlines quickly, because of the embarrassment, they never really went away. France has been in a state of rolling protests against the Macron government since then.

Gone to Texas?

We can easily draw a through-line from the Yellow Vests to the Canadian Truckers to the Dutch Farmers to Danielle Smith to the situation on the Texas border, which is clearly spiraling out of control but in a very good way.

Governor Greg Abbot’s letter to the Biden Administration declaring them in violation of the Constitution for stopping Texas from securing the border is a major escalation. The States have become ‘uncomfortable’ and are beginning to bare their canines.

For too long the States have gone along with Federal overreach because benefits of redistributing the tax money back to them outweighed the costs politically for those with higher aspirations. Governors of big states are always Presidential hopefuls of one stripe or another.

But there comes a point where the situation in DC is so predatory, so openly anathema to the health of the country itself, those aspirations have almost zero future value. That’s where Greg Abbot found himself with the Biden Administration’s open border policy whose obvious purpose was to invite the world to tilt the 2024 election in the Democrats’ favor… and by Democrats’ I mean Davos, whose agenda Biden et.al. are clearly advancing.

When the Supreme Court passed the buck, at least for the time being, on Texas’ right to secure its border, Abbot had to act. There are a number of solid defenses of Abbot from Mark Wauck and Martin Armstrong here but ultimately, the blame lies with “Biden” for not doing anything to secure the border.

Abbot’s Attorney General Ken Paxton backed him up and, as of today, 25 other States have openly expressed support for Texas’ stand against the lawlessness of “Biden’s” executive order.

You can see where this is headed folks. “Biden” is giving Texas an ultimatum to comply. The Democrats are demanding Biden call up the Texas National Guard. The entire thing has a wholly manufactured feel to it, but it is also something that had to happen. The States had to stand up to this.

And as I’ve talked about at length, the goal here is splitting the US up because a divided US, falling apart politically at this point in history, is exactly what our enemies want. The eventual goal is undermining the validity of the US debt markets and Washington D.C.’s ability to pay its bills.

There is no Great Reset with a fully functional United States.

This is why Abbot’s move is so very important. It’s not about the pols in D.C., it’s about awakening the proles across the country. The people now have to decide what country they want to live in going forward. One where the power of the gun rules or one where laws rule?

This is the type of moment which clarifies and sharpens the focus of those who have, to this point, been ‘comfortable’ enough not to see the threats for what they are. A little ‘secession’ or, in this case, a little ‘federalism’ is a good thing.

Because despite the smooth-brained arguments of the soft-headed midwits, we do not live in a democracy. The question I have now is what’s the over/under on “Biden” declaring Texas in a state of insurrection against the Union in order to deny it, as a State, its vote this fall?

If Texas refuses to ‘turn blue’ then the next move would be to maneuver its governor into full opposition to DC. The question I have here is who is in control of the escalation framework here? Texas or the FedGov?

If it’s Texas then they keep securing the border and proving that when push comes to shove, federalism returns to the public conversation. If it’s the FedGov, then given who we’re dealing with here, expect every ridiculous escalation you can imagine.

We’re talking about people trying to ban Donald Trump from the ballot over a riot on Capitol Hill less embarrassing than what the French do in Paris over a holiday weekend and which most people believe was a false flag event (and they would be correct). Do you really think they wouldn’t deny Texas their vote at an electoral college they don’t even like?

end

FBI Seizures From Safe Deposit Boxes Violated US Constitution: Federal Court

THURSDAY, JAN 25, 2024 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The FBI’s seizure of contents from safe deposit boxes during a raid on a Beverly Hills vault in 2021 violated the U.S. Constitution, a federal appeals court ruled on Jan. 23.

Agents raided U.S. Private Vaults, a business that allowed people to rent safe deposit boxes anonymously, based on the belief that criminals were using the service. The search warrant stated that agents could only open the boxes to inventory their contents and identify the owners for the return of their property.

However, agents brought drug-sniffing dogs and planned to set aside cash worth more than $5,000, with the intent to seize the money.

The FBI searched the contents of about 700 safe deposit boxes.

When people who rented boxes asked the FBI for their belongings back after the raid, the bureau refused, saying it was going to file for forfeiture or transfer ownership to the government. The renters of the boxes then sued.

A U.S. district judge previously ruled in favor of the government, finding the search was covered by what’s known as an inventory exception to the requirement for a warrant in the U.S. Constitution’s Fourth Amendment.

That exception, though, doesn’t apply to the raid on U.S. Private Vaults, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled.

The ruling hinged largely on how the exception requires searches to operate on standardized instructions and highlighted how the FBI, in the Beverly Hills raid, used supplemental, customized instructions.

“Once the government begins adding a set of ‘customized’ instructions to a ’standardized‘ inventory policy—particularly the type of custom instructions presented by this case—the entire search stops being conducted pursuant to a ’standardized’ policy,” U.S. Circuit Judge Milan D. Smith Jr. wrote in the ruling.

‘No Probable Cause’

During oral arguments, the appeals court panel compared the search to the “writs of assistance,” or unlimited searches executed by British authorities in pre-founding America.

“What you’ve got is a declaration or an understanding that from the beginning, the authorities intended to search all the boxes, all of them,” Judge Smith said at the time. “There was not probable cause available with respect to all of the boxes, but they did it anyway. Now, how do we distinguish that from what the colonists were upset about, and which led to the Fourth Amendment?”

In response, a government lawyer said the raid was “a unique situation” that involved “rampant illegal conduct.” U.S. Private Vaults has acknowledged in a plea agreement to recruiting criminals and conspiring to launder money.

“We note that it is particularly troubling that the government has failed to provide a limiting principle to how far a hypothetical ‘inventory search’ conducted pursuant to customized instructions can go,” Judge Smith said.

Many of the plaintiffs have already had their belongings returned by the FBI but pressed forward with the case for an opinion in their favor.

The ruling remanded the case back to U.S. District Judge Robert Klausner, who previously dismissed the case, for a ruling that directs the FBI to destroy records the bureau collected on the box renters who are members of the class-action case.

The opinion “draws a line in the sand, to ensure something like this never happens again,” Rob Johnson, a senior attorney with the Institute for Justice, which was representing the plaintiffs, said in a statement. “If this had come out the other way, the government could have exported this raid as a model across the country. Now, the government is on notice its actions violated the Fourth Amendment.”

“This is a good day for our country and the principle that the government’s power to search our property has limits,” added Jennifer Snitko, who was among the box renters.

The FBI didn’t respond to a request for comment.

‘Significant Privacy Interest’

A spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Los Angeles told news outlets that the office is “prepared to destroy records of the inventory search.”

The ruling also said the government went outside the authority outlined in the search warrant.

U.S. Circuit Judge Lawrence VanDyke concurred with the ruling in full, while U.S. Circuit Judge Carlos T. Bea, agreeing that the search violated the Constitution, found the second finding regarding the warrant scope to be unnecessary.

Judges Smith, Bea, and Klausner were appointed by President George W. Bush. Judge VanDyke was appointed by President Donald Trump.

Judge Smith also wrote a separate, concurring opinion that addressed the plaintiffs’ argument that the inventory exception, typically applied to automobiles, shouldn’t extend to stationary locations such as apartment buildings or safe deposit boxes.

“Plaintiffs do have a significant privacy interest in their safe deposit boxes, given that their conduct indicates they intended their items to be ‘preserved … as private,’ and society generally views the privacy expectations of items in safe deposit boxes as reasonable,” Judge Smith wrote.

“Ultimately, given the greater privacy interests at stake and the implication of the rights of third parties,” he added, “I would hold that the inventory search doctrine does not extend to searches of box contents in a locked vault.”

END

Supreme Court Moving Fast In Trump Ballot Disqualification Case, Written Opinion Coming

FRIDAY, JAN 26, 2024 – 02:20 PM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court has signaled that it’s moving fast with former President Donald Trump’s appeal that seeks to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court ruling barring him from the ballot on 14th Amendment grounds.

A note accompanying the U.S. Supreme Court’s schedule for Feb. 8, the day the high court is set to hear the first oral arguments in the case, indicates that it intends to announce written opinions on the very same day.

While the substance of the opinions has not been revealed, the declaration that they will be published on Feb. 8 is significant as it indicates that the Supreme Court views the case as having significant legal importance and warrants expedited consideration.

The question that the former president’s attorneys presented for consideration in their Jan. 3 petition was whether the Colorado Supreme Court incorrectly ordered President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential ballot.

What Will SCOTUS Do?

The Colorado high court, which is composed entirely of Democrat appointees, determined in a 4–3 ruling in December that President Trump had engaged in an “insurrection” in the context of the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol, and so he is ineligible to run for president.

The ruling was based on an interpretation of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars any former oath-taking “officer of the United States” who “engaged in insurrection” from “holding any office, civil or military.”

Legal experts have said there are several ways the Supreme Court could reverse the Colorado decision without weighing into the substance of whether President Trump “engaged in insurrection” on Jan. 6.

“There’s a fairly good chance that they’ll find a way to duck that,” Harvard Law professor emeritus and constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe told ABC News.

One such way would be for the Supreme Court to say that the U.S. President isn’t an “officer of the United States” but part of the executive branch and rule that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment simply doesn’t apply.

The nation’s top court could also vacate the Colorado court’s decision and instruct it to revisit the case at a later date. Adam Unikowsky, an experienced Supreme Court litigator at Jenner & Block LLP, wrote in his newsletter that he gives this outcome a 40 percent chance.

“More boldly, the Court could hold that the conjunction of Trump’s tweets and speeches, the January 6 report, and expert testimony were not ‘clear and convincing evidence’ that Trump engaged in insurrection,” Mr. Unikowsky wrote.

Whichever path the Supreme Court chooses, Mr. Unikowsky said that writing an opinion in the case will be a formidable challenge.

“It’s a head-scratcher,” he said.

‘Chaos And Bedlam’

In their opening brief filed with the U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 18, President Trump’s attorneys asked the high court to reverse the Colorado ruling, arguing that other states are following suit with similar 14th Amendment-based legal challenges and that preventing Americans from being able to vote for him in the 2024 Republican primary would “unleash chaos and bedlam.”

The attorneys revealed in the brief that efforts are underway in over 30 states to keep President Trump off the ballot, all based on the theory that he somehow engaged in an insurrection and so should be disqualified from holding office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

The logic of applying this section of the Constitution is based on the presumption that the Jan. 6, 2021 incident was an insurrection in which President Trump supposedly engaged by encouraging his supporters to protest at the U.S. Capitol against the certification of electoral college votes in what he insisted was a “rigged” election.

In their brief, President Trump’s attorneys argued that the Colorado Supreme Court’s disqualification ruling was “based on a dubious interpretation” of the 14th Amendment while relying heavily “on a hearsay congressional report and experts of dubious reliability.”

President Trump, who’s the frontrunner by far for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, said in a recent appearance on Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he’s confident that the Supreme Court “is going to say, ‘We’re not going to take the vote away from the people.’”

National polls show President Trump enjoys a commanding 55.1 point lead over his chief rival, former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley.

“Most Court watchers think the justices will blink and find a way to avoid ruling against the former president,” Kent Greenfield, a law professor and former Supreme Court law clerk, wrote in a recent op-ed for WBUR. “To bar him would require a nervy assertion of judicial authority.”

THE KING REPORT

The King Report Janury 26, 2024 Issue 7167

Independent View of the News

With the campaign to reelect The Big Guy in full gear, Obama toadies in the BEA crafted larger Q4 GDP than reality: +3.3%, +2.0% was consensus.  The GDP Price Index arrived at 1.5%; 2.2% was expected, 3.3% prior! This contributed 1.80 (Prior 3.3 -1.5 = 1.8) to ‘real’ GDP!

In Table 4 of the GDP Report, the BEA has the price of Goods at -1.9% vs +0.9% in Q3.  It has Nondurable Goods at -1.0 vs. +3.9%. How did Nondurable Goods prices collapse so much?

Core PCE was the expected and prior 2.0%.  How could Core PCE remain unchanged with the extremely large and anomalous decline in The GDP Price Index?

Personal consumption contributed 1.91% to GDP. Gross private domestic investment added .38. Healthcare contributed 0.36 to GDP; RVs contributed .26! Government contributed 0.56 to GDP, with state & local providing 0.40. Full GDP tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/gdp4q23-adv.pdf

The BEA: The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles). (Consumption 2.8%, 2.5% expected)
https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate

The BEA did NOT report GDI (Gross Domestic Income) and GNP (Gross National Product).

@RealEJAntoni: For the 6th quarter in a row, growth in gov’t expenditures has outpaced consumer spending – note that gov’t expenditures doesn’t even include gov’t transfers, so the proportion of the economy controlled by gov’t is actually much greater than gov’t expenditures alone indicate:
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1750535420817838149

@JeffWeniger: With GDP having grown at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q4, it begs the question: why is it necessary to run GFC-style budget deficits? The budget deficit-to-GDP ratio is -6.5% now; even the “highs” never seem to get back to old norms.  https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1750538515199209808

@RealEJAntoni: Has no one else noticed this from Q4 GDP report? Annualized interest on the federal debt now exceeds $1 trillion and is projected to breach $3 trillion, annualized rate, by Q4 2030 – INSANE and UNSUSTAINABLE:  https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1750537238578930101

@BloombergTV: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says real debt service costs are “quite manageable” during an Economic Club of Chicago event https://t.co/uzZglPoYs7

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index unexpectedly sank 0.15 in December – despite the great Q4 GDP! +0.006 was consensus. November was revised to 0.01 from 0.03. October was a horrendous -0.68.  How can US Q4 GDP surge 3.3% from the consensus 2% with abysmal October thru December readings in the highly accurate and respected Chicago Fed National Activity Index?

Nominal Q4 GDP is 4.8% y/y; it is adjusted to 3.3% real GDP. Nominal Q3 GDP is 8.3%; it was adjusted to 4.9% real GDP.  The change in nominal GDP from Q3 is 3.5%; but the change in ‘real’ GDP from Q3 is only 1.6%. Yes, Virginia, this is total Biden-style malarkey!

@RealEJAntoni: PHL Fed: alternative measurement of real output GDPplus hits 2.7%, remains below official GDP; note that these are Q/Q rate of growth continuously compounded annualized percentage points, so GDP is listed here as 3.2% instead of the 3.3% quoted by BEA: https://t.co/JwuQnXio4x

Other US Economic Data Released on Thursday Dec Retail Inventories 0.8% m/m, 0.0% expected Dec Wholesale Inventories 0.4% m/m, -0.2% expected Dec Durable Goods 0.0%, 1.5% expected Dec Durables Goods ex-Transportation 0.6%, 0.2% expected Dec Cap Goods Nondefense, Ex-Air 0.3%, 0.1% expected Dec Cap Goods Nondefense, Ex-Air Shipment 0.1%, 0.0% expected Initial Jobless Claims 214k, 200k expected, prior 189k revised from 187k Continuing Claims 1.833m 1.823m expected, 1.806m prior Dec New Home Sales 664k, 649k expected, prior 615k revised from 590k January KC Fed Mfg. Activity -9, -3 expected, -1 prior
The ECB, as expected, did NOT change interest rates or monetary policy.

ECB Monetary Decisions – The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively… The Governing Council intends to continue to reinvest, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP during the first half of 2024…
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240125~f738889bde.en.html

ECB Monetary Policy Statement – Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed our previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Aside from an energy-related upward base effect on headline inflation, the declining trend in underlying inflation has continued, and our past interest rate increases keep being transmitted forcefully into financing conditions. Tight financing conditions are dampening demand, and this is helping to push down inflation… some forward-looking survey indicators point to a pick-up in growth further ahead.
    The labour market has remained robust… Inflation is expected to ease further over the course of this year…  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.html

Bonds rallied with a looming 7-year auction of $41.0B due to the absurdly, and probably fraudulently, low GDP Price Index. USHs hit a daily high of 120 4/32 at 10:23 ET. They retreat to 119 20/32 at 11:54 ET. The rally we expected after the 7-year note auction appeared, even though the auction was soft: 4.109% vs 4.106% WI. USHs rallied from 119 17/32 to 119 31/32 at 15:38 ET.

ESHs traded mostly positive, but in a tight range, from the Nikkei opening until they soared after the 8:30 ET release of the US Q4 GDP Report. ESHs hit a daily high of 4926.50 at 10:22 ET. After a retreat to 4911.50 at 11:04 ET, the rally for the 11:30 ET European close took ESHs higher. Eventually, ESHs hit 4924.25 at 11:50 ET; they quickly sank to a new NYSE session low of 4909.25 at 12:06 ET.

After a rebound to 4916.25 at 13:07 ET, ESHs sank to a new NYSE session low of 4896.75 at 14:08 ET. The late manipulation forced ESHs to rally 4925.25 at 16:00 ET.

Yellen Says Americans Seeing Inflation ‘Well Under Control’ – BBG 14:52 ET

@dlacalle_IA: Americans say Yellen obviously is not feeling the +21% accumulated inflation effect since January 2019 from disastrous money printing…

Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks and bonds rallied after the hokey Q4 GDP Report showed a 1.5% GDP Price Index
Someone manipulated ESHs from 4896.75 at 15:08 ET to 4925.25 at 16:00 ET

Negative aspects of previous session
US economic data, which for decades has been questionable, is now Biden-style malarkey

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will BS US economic data keep the Fed from pivoting?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4887.22
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4898.15; 4869.34

@allstarcharts: If you go in and actually count, you’ll notice how a lot of different stocks peaked in mid-December. New highs list on both NYSE & Nasdaq peaked Dec 14. Dollar changes started to take place then too. Go sector by sector. And there’s been a stealth correction over the past 6 weeks. A lot of investors who are looking for a market correction haven’t actually gone in to look. We’re 6 weeks into one. Go count.

Earnings Have Been Horrible Thus Far for The S&P 500 Earnings growth for the S&P 500 has fallen by 4.7% in Q4, with sales growing by 3.5%. Margin expectations for Q4 have declined to 9.9%, dragging down Q1 margin expectations to 11.4%. Falling margin expectations are impacting earnings estimates, with full-year 2024 estimates lower at $240.52 per share. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4664993-earnings-have-been-horrible-thus-far-for-the-s-and-p-500

After the close, Intel reported EPS of .63, .45 expected; and sees a Q1 loss of .25 with revenue of $12.2B-$13.2B vs. $14.16B. Intel sank as much as 10.6% in after-hour trading.

Fed Balance Sheet: +3.489B; Reserves at Fed: -$85.036B to $3,527T
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20240125/

@MichaelAArouet: World: Nominal GDP and nominal public debt – With the upcoming pensions and healthcare entitlements crisis things will get even worse as we go forward. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1750505469314015721

Today – Traders will play for the Friday rally, emboldened by the upward bias of Fang reporting season. Bonds should rally after this week’s three US note auctions. This should abet an equity rally.

Expected Economic Data: Dec Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Spending 0.5%, PCE Deflator 0.2% m/m & 2/6% y/y, PCE Core Deflator 0.2% m/m & 3.0% y/y; Dec Pending Home Sales 2.0% m/m & -4.3% y/y

ESHs are -13.50 (on Intel) and USHs are +6/32 at 20:10 ET.

Expected earnings: ADM 1.48, AXP 2.65, NSC 2.87, CL .85

S&P Index 50-day MA: 4677; 100-day MA: 4508; 150-day MA: 4494; 200-day MA: 4419
DJIA 50-day MA: 36,721; 100-day MA: 35,271; 150-day MA: 35,084; 200-day MA: 34,716
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4532.43 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4807.17 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4904.60 triggers a buy signal

(25) Republican Governors Band Together, Issue Joint Statement Supporting Texas’ Constitutional Right to Self-Defense – “The authors of the U.S. Constitution made clear that in times like this, states have a right of self-defense, under Article 4, Section 4 and Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution. Because the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has every legal justification to protect the sovereignty of our states and our nation.”…
https://www.rga.org/republican-governors-ban-together-issue-joint-statement-supporting-texas-constitutional-right-self-defense/

@jeffreyatucker: How is it possible that the NYT has yet to report on the standoff between Texas and Biden on the border? It’s getting weird.

@RobertKennedyJr: Texas is right. Biden’s failure to secure the border leaves states no choice but to take matters into their own hands. As President, I will end this humanitarian crisis once and for all. I will secure the border and destroy the business model of the drug cartels. A country without borders is not a country at all.

“Texas can make it without the United States, but the United States cannot make it without Texas.” — Sam Houston, Ex-President of the Republic of Texas

GOP Sen. (Utah) @BasedMikeLee: The Law Firm of Schumer & McConnell (formerly known as Schumer, McConnell, Johnson & Jeffries) (“The Firm™️”), wants Congress to pass a Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan-Border bill that no one has ever seen—except The Firm™️ and its negotiators. But The Firm™️ tells it’ll be great.

President Biden (@POTUS): I’m headed to Superior, Wisconsin today to make a big announcement about one of the most important bridges in the region: The Blatnik Bridge.

@johnddavidson: Greatest constitutional crisis since the Civil War and Biden’s going to Wisconsin to give a speech about a bridge.

@TheFirstonTV: Wisconsin Democrat Governor refers to Joe Biden as “the big guy” as in “10 percent for the big guy.” https://t.co/412ldQP4Lv
     JOE BIDEN: “In beer brew here… Huh ish issah use to make the brew beer here.. Issh Weer-fining… Oooooh Earth Rider… Thanks for the Great Lakes!” https://t.co/qfHeoIxEj1

@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I got to meet his twins and his wife, and no wonder he’s here…” *awkward silence* https://t.co/u9J6sWRSSD
    Biden is having a VERY tough time reading from his giant teleprompter today
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1750599745628680576
    BIDEN (mumbling): “Bipartishan infrashrushure law” https://t.co/ybHwT13IBH
   Biden brags about creating “169 new jobs in Wisconsin” during his presidency https://t.co/9QeA0T8I10
    BIDEN v. TELEPROMPTER: “My professor, uh, well, I won’t get into my professor. But, look, my predecessor, though...” https://t.co/bwBqk1Gb2K

Biden blasted for his ‘best gibberish yet’ in Wisconsin brewery speech: ‘Different language’
Multiple users said it seemed like Biden was ‘speaking a different language’ when making the flub
    Conservative commentator Paul Szypula had a more sober take on the matter, writing, “Every time I see these clips I’m reminded of how I was raised to respect my elders and treat them with dignity. What Democrats are doing by propping Biden up like this when he’s clearly debilitated is not respectful or dignified. It’s shameful and an insult to all elderly.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-blasted-best-gibberish-wisconsin-brewery-speech-different-language

@charliekirk11: UAW Union Boss and Joe Biden lackey Shawn Fain admits that the vast majority of his rank-and-file membership will be voting Trump: “A great majority of our members will not vote for President Biden…the majority of our members are going to vote their paychecks.” https://t.co/ycD2DPulrG

Trump’s Lead Over Biden in RealClearPolitics Average Reaches All-Time High https://t.co/kBruUs7u18

Trump edges Biden (42% to 39%) among New York Latinos as migrant crisis rages: poll
https://nypost.com/2024/01/22/metro/trump-edges-biden-among-new-york-latinos-polltrump-edges-biden-among-new-york-latinos-as-migrant-crisis-rages-poll/

NPR’s new CEO Katherine Maher scrubs hyper-partisan posts: ‘Trump is a racist’ https://t.co/oL1F2JCkfB

NSA/CIA contractor/whistleblower @TonySeruga: The J6 ‘pipe bomber’ is a government contractor with a background in Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD). Their mobile device accessed DOJ/FBI 1,167 times over an approximate 2 year period and also the DC Navy Yard over 200 times during the same period.
    The actual ‘pipe bombs’ can be used to train the dogs. This is important because their ‘cover story’ if they were to get caught in the act, would have been that they were hired to test security protocols. Additionally, they were monitoring law enforcement agencies radio traffic.

Ex-Trump adviser Peter Navarro sentenced to 4 months in prison after defying Jan. 6 subpoena
https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/ex-trump-adviser-peter-navarro-be-sentenced-contempt-after-defying-jan-6-committee

@CBSNews: France’s Constitutional Council on Thursday rejected several measures in a divisive new immigration law.  Among the measures were articles making it harder for immigrants to bring in their families and limiting access to welfare. https://t.co/NMjVyIO6qU

“It’s just obvious you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state.” – Milton Friedman

Migrant crime a ‘real problem’ in Chicago suburb after six more charged in Macy’s retail thefts: police chief https://t.co/3GjFymmjlt

All but two Senate Democrats sign on to Palestinian statehood measure https://t.co/1D8rvJfvkv
Sens Joe Manchin and John Fetterman have not signed on to the resolution calling for a Palestinian state

@FoxNews: Chicago mayor calls for Gaza cease-fire, but social media reminds him of violence gripping his own city

Dad rages over probation for California audiologist who stabbed son 108 times: ‘A license to kill’
https://nypost.com/2024/01/24/news/dad-rages-at-probation-for-bryn-spejcher-who-killed-his-son

“When a government has ceased to protect the lives, liberty, and property of the people … and … becomes an instrument in the hands of evil rulers for their oppression … it is a … sacred obligation to their posterity to abolish such government and create another in its stead.” — Sam Houston

GREG HUNTER interviewing Steve Quayle

Border War, Global War, Get Food and Special Guest Steve Quayle

Border War, Global War, Get Food and Special Guest Steve Quayle

By Greg Hunter On January 26, 2024 In Political Analysis16 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 618 1.26.24)

The southern border of the US is becoming a flashpoint for the political parties. Texas has been ordered by the Supreme Court to stand down and allow federal border patrol agents to cut down razor wired Texas installed to stop the invasion of illegal aliens. The Biden Administration is continuing to inviting and allow border crossers by the thousands every day. Texas is ignoring SCOTUS, and it is putting up more wire. Now many other states are joining in and supporting Texas to secure the border. Special Guest Steve Quayle says, “The border issue in America is the issue.” The Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, says, “. . . Biden is trying to continue his illegal effort to aid the foreign invasion of America.”

War is continuing to heat up in the Middle East everywhere you look. Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, Jordon, Israel, Syria and many more places are seeing increasing violence and war. There is no end in sight. Many are very worried about how this will impact global shipping and damage supply chains that are already stressed to the max. There is now the real possibility of a global nuclear war of World War III.

Quayle is watching food being attacked all over the planet. There are farmer protests in Europe and supply shortages in all kinds of things beginning to show up in America. What should the average person do? Quayle says start stockpiling food and other supplies you may need because the problems with food and supplies are only going to get worse.

There is much more in the 1-hour and 11-minute newscast and interview.

Don’t forget to click here to get the latest satellite phone deals at Sat123.com.

For powered generation ideas go to BeReady123.com.

Join Greg Hunter with his special guest renowned radio host and filmmaker, Steve Quayle as they talk about the important news stories of the week in what Quayle calls a “pivotal turning-point” in the survival of America for 1/26/24.

SEE YOU ON MONDAY

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTE

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2024. CONTRACT: 541 NOTICES FOR 54,100 OZ or 1.682 TONNES

total notices so far: 6763 contracts for 676,300 Oz (21.035 tonnes)

FOR JANUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 46 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 230,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1155 for 5,775,000 oz

Bonds Away: Rate-Cuts & Junk-Debt In 2024

Daily All Time High In Peril As Futures Dip After Intel Tumbles

European equities firmer whilst Stateside futures are mixed, DXY slightly weaker ahead of US PCE – Newsquawk US Market Open

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

FX

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

EARNINGS

GEOPOLITICS

CRYPTO

APAC TRADE

Troops battle Hamas operatives in Khan Younis as IAF strikes RPG-wielding cell

IDF announces death of reservist, bringing Gaza op toll to 220; protesters block humanitarian aid at Kerem Shalom for third consecutive day, calling for release of hostages

As battles rage in Khan Younis, first rocket alert from Gaza in 4 days sounds in Israel

No reports of injuries or damage after siren sounds in border town; IDF says dozens of Hamas terrorists killed in past day, with most intense fighting concentrated in Khan Younis

Rocket sirens activated in Lebanon border community for second time this evening

US Military Build-Up Since Gaza War Began Has Cost $1.6 Billion

Houthi Rebels Fire Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile “Toward” US Arleigh-Burke Class Destroyer

US pauses UNRWA funding amid probe of staff involved in October 7 massacre

UNRWA Commissioner-General says these allegations are “shocking.”

Probe into UNRWA

UNRWA says allegations are shocking

Another Russian Oil Refinery Engulfed In Fire After Drone Attack From Ukraine

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

Forensic analysis of 38 subject deaths shared by Corinne Michels Writer Science Rules by Corinne Michels, found evidence of an over 3.7-fold increase in number of deaths due to cardiovascular events

in Pfizer (BNT162b2) vaccinated subjects compared to Placebo controls. This significant adverse event signal was not reported by Pfizer/BioNTech.

Most importantly, we found evidence of an over 3.7-fold increase in number of deaths due to cardiacevents in the BNT162b2 vaccinated individualscompared to those who received only the placebo.’

Would we need a flu shot or any shot including COVID if you had 50 ng/mL (125 nmol/L) circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D daily (vitamin D)? No! Anderson et al. looked at flu vaccine on hospitlization and

death in the elderly (Annals of Internal Medicine); researchers found no evidence indicating that flu vaccination reduced hospitalizations or mortality among elderly persons (55 to 75 years old)

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Sticking The Landing?

Biden Set To Announce New LNG Export Ban After White House Met With Gen-Z Climate Warrior

Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Bounce As Economic ‘Animal Spirits’ Wreck Rate-Cut Hype

Bank Bailout Fund ‘Arb’ Usage Soars (Again) Amid Money-Market Fund Outflows, Large RRP Drain

Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations (RRPONTSYD)

The GDP Number Was Great… There Is Just One Huge Problem

Auto Insurance Rates Soar At Fastest Pace Since 1970s Inflation Spike

Savings Rate Slumps As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Hits 2 Handle

Pending Home Sales Surge Most Since COVID-Lockdowns In December As Rates Tumbled

War? 25 Red States Rally ‘Round Texas As Battle Brews With Biden Over Border

Watch: Gov. Abbott Tells Tucker He’s Not Backing Down, Expects Red States To Circle Wagons, & Trump Elected In November

Soft Secession, Insurrection, Or The Real Return Of Federalism In Texas?

Gone to Texas?

FBI Seizures From Safe Deposit Boxes Violated US Constitution: Federal Court

‘No Probable Cause’

‘Significant Privacy Interest’

Supreme Court Moving Fast In Trump Ballot Disqualification Case, Written Opinion Coming

What Will SCOTUS Do?

‘Chaos And Bedlam’

Border War, Global War, Get Food and Special Guest Steve Quayle

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