FEB 6/NEW BLOG FOR TUESDAY//GOLD CLOSED UP $8.50 TO $2035.20//SILVER CLOSED UP 11 CENTS TO $22.45//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $4.75 TO $904.70 WHILE PALLADIUM FINISHED THE SESSION UP 60 CENTS TO $950.20//CHINA SET TO UNLEASCH MASSIVE STIMULUS TO REVIVE ITS ECONOMY// MAJOR EUROPEAN BANKS IN TROUBLE AS THEY EVADED IRANIAN SANCTIONS //ISRAEL VS HAMAS: 1/2 OF HAMAS FIGHTERS ARE EITHER DEAD OR WOUNDED AND OUT OF COMMISSION//1/4 OF ISRAELI HOSTAGES ARE PRESUMED DEAD//LEBANON WILL NOT PULL BACK AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE INCREASED FIGHTING ON THAT FRONT//BIDEN THREATENS TO VETO AID TO ISRAEL//HOUTHIS FIRE ON TWO COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN THE RED SEA//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURIES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//SEC TO CRACK DOWN ON CERTAIN HEDGE FUNDS BUYING USA TREASURIES AND THAT WILL STIFLE DEMAND AT THE WRONG TIME//NEW YORK COMMERCIAL BANKCORP READY FOR BURIAL: SHIVA TO BEGIN SHORTLY FOR THEM//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
A Hospital in Russia which specializes in treating Senior Citizens who suffer from Dementia, has new advertising posters showing . . . . Joe Biden
Biden supporters in the US have allegedly responded with a poster of their own:
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 50 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
132 C SG AMERICAS 72 190 H BMO CAPITAL 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 31 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 47 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 15 661 C JP MORGAN 35 690 C ABN AMRO 5 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 23 10 845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 5
TOTAL: 125 125 MONTH TO DATE: 16,151
JPMorgan stopped 0/125 contracts.
FOR FEB.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 125 NOTICES FOR 12,500 OZ or 0.3888 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,151 contracts for 1,615,1000 Oz (50.236 tonnes)
FOR FEBRUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 25 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 125,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 662 for 3,300,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $8.50
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.144 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4,894 CONTRACTS TO 144,442 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.32 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING AS THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE APPRECIABLY. WE HAD A HUGE 1393 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 1393 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.32), BUT WERE BASICALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 5595 CONTRACTS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG SIZED 536 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 105,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL; 4,18 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.18 MILLION OZ
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1393 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 165 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 2136 contracts: OR 10.680 MILLION OZ (534 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 10.680 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 10.680 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4894CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 536 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 105,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 4.18 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING 4.18 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 5430 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1393 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS (OPEN INTEREST ROSE DRAMATICALLY AGAIN) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE NIGHT DAY NIGHT (1393) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 25 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 125,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1894 CONTRACTS TO 418,029 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – added 2 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1894 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.85 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 53.767 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.85 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2154 OI CONTRACTS (6.695) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4048CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 418,029
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2153 CONTRACTS WITH 1894 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4048EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2154 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1690 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4048CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1894) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2,154 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 53.767 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1690CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,918 CONTRACTS OR 1,991,800OZ OR 61.9533 TONNES IN 4TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4978 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 61.9533TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 61.9533/3550 x 100% TONNES 1,74% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 61.9533 TONNES (SHOULD BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4894CONTRACTS OI TO 144,442 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 536 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 536 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 536 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4894 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 536 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5595CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 27.975 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 87.30 PTS OR 3.23% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 626.86 PTS OR 4.04% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 193.50 OR 0.53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.59% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1890 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1958 /Oil UP TO 73.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 78.55/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1894 CONTRACTS TO 418,029 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.85 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4048 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 4048 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4048CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2152 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4048 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1894 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $9.85 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1690 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (53.767 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 53.767 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $9.85 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF2154 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED NERVOUS SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS LONGS NOTIFIED THE CME THAT THEY WERE TAKING DELIVERY ON THEIR JUST PURCHASED GOLD CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 6.695 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 25,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP .7869 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 53.767: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.85
WE HAD + added 2 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2154 CONTRACTS OR 215,400 OZ OR 6.695 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,151 notices 1,615,100 oz 50.236 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of Brinks: 64.302 oz (2 kilobars)
total withdrawals 64.302 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits NIL oz
Adjustments:5 all dealer to customer account
dealer to customer account:
ASAHI 93,835.200 oz
HSBC 62,747.834 oz
JPMorgan 26,235.213 oz
Malca 52,084.620 oz
Manfra 90,529.363
total adjusted: 325,471.234 oz 10.13 tonnes
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 706 contracts having GAINED 37 contracts. We had 216 notices filed on Monday, so we gained A WHOPPING 253 contracts or an additional 25,300 oz will stand in this active delivery month of February.
We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.
Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 25,300 oz for .7869 tonnes//New standing 52.044 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 53.767 TONNES
March GAINED 80 contracts to stand at 2073.
APRIL LOST 2397 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 343,462.
We had 125 contracts filed for today representing 12,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 35 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 125 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,131 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (706 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 125 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,673,200 OZ OR 52.044 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 53.767 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB.contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,151) x 100 oz + (706) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (125) x 100 oz) which equals 1,673,200 oz (52.044 TONNES) + 54,400 oz(1.723 TONNES) ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 53.767 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 53.767 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,071,972.955 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,823,261.516 (274.44 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,923,240.203 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,47,3075 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 232.44 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 6/INITIAL
//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
niloz
No of oz served today (contracts)
25 CONTRACT(S) (125,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
85 contracts (425,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
662 Contracts (3,300,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.199 million oz/275.529 million or 47.18%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 0
total withdrawal: nil oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 275.529 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB. /2023 OI: 110 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 8 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 13 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 21 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.
MARCH SURPRISINGLY GAINED ANOTHER 3002 CONTRACTS TO 98,670
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 7
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 1401 CONTRACTS UP TO 30,979
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 25 for 125,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 49,338 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 61,467 very good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 662 x 5,000 oz = 3,300,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (110) and the number of notices served upon today 25 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 662 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (110) – number of notices served upon today (25 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 3.735 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 4.18 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 4.18 million oz.
There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 851.73 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 435.144 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Silver Demand Expected to Hit Second-Highest Level on Record in 2024
Mike Maharrey
February 6, 2024
Silver demand is expected to rise 1 percent, hitting 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level on record, according to projections by the Silver Institute.
Industrial demand for silver is expected to lead the growth in global demand this year with a 4 percent increase to a record 690 million ounces. That would build on the all- time high industrial demand in 2023. Continued growth in the solar energy sector and the automotive industry will continue to be key drivers of growth.
The push for green energy is expected to provide long- term support for the silver market.
According to the Silver Institute, global photovoltaic installations significantly exceeded market expectations in 2023, and new capacity additions are forecast to reach another record high this year. Silver offtake will also benefit from a technological breakthrough bringing new, higher-efficiency N-type solar cells into mass production. These solar cells use even more silver than the older technology.
According to a 2022 research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers could consume over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.
Some analysts speculate that silver demand for photo production will eventually flatten as the industry develops cheaper alternatives to the white metal. But according to the paper, even if the industry finds ways to reduce the use of silver in individual panels, overall demand will still increase.
The results show that the current rate of reduction in silver consumption is not sufficient to avoid increasing silver demand from the PV industry and that the transition to high-efficiency technologies including TOPCon (a more advanced N-type silicon cell technology, first scaled in 2019) and SHJ (Silicon heterojunction solar cells, which are very efficient) could greatly increase silver demand, posing price and supply risks.
The green energy sector should also remain relatively recession-proof due to government commitments to funding it.
Meanwhile, a projected recovery in the consumer electronics market should further boost industrial silver demand.
The silver jewelry market is also projected to set a record in 2024, rising 6 percent. A resurgence in Indian jewelry demand is expected to drive the increase.
The Silver Institute expects investment demand to decline in 2024, sagging to a 6-year low. According to its analysis, demand in the U.S. will likely lead the way as stocks surge and economic growth thanks to anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
There is a blind spot in the Silver Institute’s analysis. It does not seem to anticipate anything breaking in the U.S. economy due to higher interest rates. A financial crisis would crater that expected economic growth and tank the stock market. There are already signs of stress in the banking system and the commercial real estate market is ripe for a crisis.
If something breaks in the economy, this scenario would likely send investment demand soaring, but could put a damper on industrial offtake.
On the supply side, the Silver Institute projects a recovery in mine output, pushing total supply up 3 percent to an 8-year high of 1.02 billion ounces.
This will be somewhat offset by a decline in silver recycling.
Even with the recovery of mine output, the Silver Institute projects another market deficit in 2024 with demand outstripping supply. This would mark the fourth straight year of a structural market deficit and further cut into silver reserves.
Although this year’s deficit is expected to ease by 9 percent to 176 Moz (194 Moz in 2023), it will still be exceptionally high by historical standards.
Silver Is Not Priced for These Market Dynamics
As we reported last month, silver is not priced for these market dynamics.
At between $22 and $23 an ounce, silver is on sale.
The gold/silver ratio has spread to almost 90:1. That means it takes almost 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. This is a historically wide spread.
The average gold/silver ratio in the modern era has generally ranged between 40:1 and 60:1. When the ratio widens far beyond that range, as it has in recent years, it typically returns toward that mean.
For instance, the ratio fell to 30:1 in 2011 and below 20:1 in 1979.
The pandemic era provides a more recent example. As the Fed cut rates and launched quantitative easing to prop up a shaky economy caused by rate hikes the prior year, the gold/silver ratio climbed to nearly 93:1. As sliver rallied along with gold, the gold/silver ratio plunged from over 100:1 to just over 64:1, close to the high end of the historical norm.
It’s pretty clear that silver isn’t priced for the current demand dynamics.
END
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
MATHEW PIEPENBURG
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
History lesson…
(Jan)
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: U.S. and Europe fight a war over gold during the demise of Bretton Woods
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-02-05 16:36 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs Gainesville Coins, Lutz, Florida Monday, February 5, 2024
This is the story of the emergence of the U.S. dollar hegemony.
After the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971 several European central banks tried setting up a new gold pool to stabilize the price and move to a quasi gold standard. The U.S. wanted to phase out gold from the system and enforce a dollar standard on the world.
Through its military presence in Germany, protecting it from the Soviet Union, the U.S. was able to pressure the Germans not to cooperate with the gold pool. Without Germany the other European countries couldn’t materialize the pool and gold lost its anchor role in the monetary system.
In the meantime, the U.S. made a secret deal with Saudi Arabia to recycle oil dollars into U.S. government bonds.
The United States didn’t manage to phase out gold from the system altogether, but it did succeed in establishing a global dollar standard that yielded the U.S. unprecedented power. …
Asian central banks support gold while JPM freezes silver, Murphy says
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-02-05 17:54 Section: Daily Dispatches
5:56p ET Monday, February 5, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek, notes that Asian central bank buying is keeping the gold price above $2,000 but JPMorganChase is keeping silver in a headlock. Gold and silver mining shares, Murphy says, are at bargain valuations but gold and silver price suppression has gone on so long that potential investors are too demoralized to buy.
The interview is 17 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS
As outlined to you throughout the past few months Eastern Central bankers are buying gold hand over fist
(World Gold Council)
World Bank Gold Reserves Central Surged, Says WGC
By Paul Ploumis
ScrapMonster Author
Meantime, Czech Republic and Mongolia bought 1 tonne each of gold in December 2023.
World Central Bank Gold Reserves Surged, Says WGC
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The World Gold Council (WGC) announced publication of central gold statistics for the month of December 2023.
According to data available from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other publicly available sources, the global central bank gold reserves surged higher by a net 28 tonnes during the month. The gross sales stood higher at 12 tonnes. However, this was outweighed by robust gross purchases which totalled 41 tonnes.
The banks which have been regular buyers of gold so far in 2023 dominated the purchases in the final month of the year as well.
All of the major gold buyers were from emerging markets. The biggest gold purchaser was the Central Bank of Turkiye, which added 18 tonnes of gold to its reserves. The other prominent buyers were the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the People’s Bank of China, which recorded gold purchases of 9 tonnes each during the month. Qatar added 2 tonnes of gold to its central bank gold reserves. Meantime, Czech Republic and Mongolia bought 1 tonne each of gold in December 2023.
On the other hand, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan offloaded 10 tonnes of gold from its reserves.
The People’s Bank of China remained the largest gold purchaser in 2023, The Monetary Authority of Singapore was the sole developed market bank to add gold to its reserves, WGC noted.
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /coal
The idiot Biden is at it again!
(zerohedge)
Biden Makes Coal Great Again As Exports Soar To India
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 06:55 AM
US thermal coal exporters recorded more than $5 billion in overseas sales in 2023, shipping upwards of 32.5 million metric tons of the high-polluting power fuel, according to Reuters, citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. These coal export earnings were the second highest since 2017, trailing only behind 2022’s $5.7 billion. This comes as US utility coal usage for electricity generation tumbles to the lowest in this century.
Reuters points out diverging trends between sliding domestic coal use at power plants and a surge in coal exports. They called this “hypocrisy, given the country’s ambitions to become a global leader in energy transition and pollution reduction efforts.”
In 2023, India was the largest destination for US coal shipments, with 11.8 million tons delivered, accounting for 36.3% of total US thermal exports. Kpler data showed that volume was up 130% from 2022, and the south Asian nation is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer after China.
“India is expected to remain a keen buyer of international coal as the country’s domestic reserves are being depleted and power firms rely on coal for about 75% of India’s electricity,” Reuters said.
In a separate report, Reuters pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government increased coal power generation in 2023 by 11.3%, the fastest pace in at least five years.
“In the next 18 months, about 19,600 MW (megawatts of) capacity is likely to be commissioned,” the power ministry said late last week.
Many of these companies, who have adopted woke green policies, will be or have already produced goods in India on a grid heavily reliant on coal.
Other top export destinations for US coal last year include The Netherlands (13.4% of total), Egypt (8.5%), Morocco (6.7%) and Japan (6.0%).
According to the US Energy Information Administration, a record 17% of total US coal production was exported, compared to around 12.5% in 2017.
To sum up, Biden is ‘making coal great again’ with surging exports. At the same time, US corporations flock to India from China to build products on coal-powered grids while virtue signaling back in the States how they’re saving the planet by planting trees and buying carbon credits.
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1890
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1958
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 87.30 PTS OR 3.23%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 626,86 PTS OR 4.04%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 193.50 PTS OR 0.53%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.39 EURO FALLS TO 1.0729 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.726 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.41/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3317***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.886* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.240…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.3317
3j Gold at $2030.35 silver at: 22.36 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 33 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.89//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148,71// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.721% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8738 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9366 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.164 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.347 DOWN 1/4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.448 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.58…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.036
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Flat As Interest Rates Grind Higher After Two-Day Surge
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 08:14 AM
US index futures traded flat on Tuesday, with European markets fading earlier gains while Chinese stocks surged on fresh hopes of government intervention in markets, as continued euphoria about artificial intelligence lifted the shares of Nvidia though broader indexes drifted. As of 7:50am, S&P 500 futures were little changed to 4,960, as 10-year Treasuries continued their drop, if at a more modest pace, with yields rising 2bps to 4.16% after yields soared about 14 basis points in the previous session and following the biggest 2-day selloff in months. Nasdaq futures were fractionally in the red. The small uptick in Treasuries pushes US 10-year yields down 1bps to 4.15% – they rose almost 28bps in the prior two trading sessions. The dollar and gold were also flat, while oil rebounded after several days of losses.
Ten-year Treasuries posted small moves after yields soared about 28 basis points in the previous two sessions.
In premarket trading, Palantir surged as much as 20% after giving a higher-than-expected profit outlook on demand for artificial intelligence products. Eli Lilly rose 3% after forecasting 2024 sales ahead of Wall Street estimates as the company rolls out Zepbound, its weight-loss shot. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Chegg shares dropped 6.6% after the online educational services company’s projections for first-quarter revenue and adjusted Ebitda fell short of consensus expectations.
Coherent shares jump 9.7% after the maker of optoelectronic components posted second-quarter results that beat expectations, with analyst positive on demand for the company’s AI-related datacom transceivers and potential for growth.
FMC shares slid 15% after the pesticide maker’s first-quarter and full-year earnings outlook trailed expectations. The company also reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed estimates.
Palantir Technologies jumped 18% after the software and analysis company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results as demand for its artificial intelligence products boosted sales.
NXP Semi shares rose 2.5% as the chipmaker reported better-than-expected fourth quarter revenue and adjusted EPS. Analysts noted that 4Q results were largely inline, while KeyBanc says that the 1Q forecast weighed down by weakness in auto and industrial segments.
Symbotic shares slumped 19% after the robotics warehouse automation company’s forecast for second-quarter adjusted Ebitda missed estimates. Additionally, the company reported first-quarter loss per share that was bigger than expected.
United Parcel Service advanced 2.5% after UBS raised its recommendation on the stock to buy from neutral. The broker said upgrade is based on expectations that management will deliver “a strong cost reduction program to support margin expansion and attractive EPS growth.”
US-listed Chinese stocks rally across the board in premarket trading Tuesday following a slew of announcements from officials in Beijing aimed at bolstering the stock market. Bloomberg reported that regulators planned to brief President Xi Jinping on the financial market as soon as Tuesday.
Varonis Systems rose 7.2% after the data security firm’s 4Q results and outlook for full-year recurring revenue beat expectations. The company said its transition to a Software-as-a-Service model should be complete by end-2026, a year ahead of its initial plan, an announcement that led several analysts to nudge up their price targets on the stock.
After last week’s FOMC which pushed back on a March (and even May) rate cut, a raft of Fed officials are set to speak this week, which may add additional insight into the central bank’s thinking. Strong US economic data has forced traders to reduce their bets on interest rate cuts and Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his wait-and-see approach in an interview on Sunday. While market pricing once made a first quarter-point Fed cut in March look like a near-certainty, those odds have now dwindled to around 10%. The Fed’s Loretta Mester and Patrick Harker are due to speak on Tuesday, with Adriana Kugler and Tom Barkin slated for the following day.
“Wary sentiment from central bankers, cautious about stubborn inflation, may hold back gains again on Wall Street,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Policymakers still want to keep a tighter rein on demand, so high borrowing costs are likely to linger for longer.”
European stocks and US futures surrendered earlier gains while bond markets steadied after the biggest two-day selloff in months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed, with energy and bank shares among the best performers. The energy sector outperforms as BP rallies after beating profit estimates and accelerating its share buybacks. Infineon falls after guiding for lower-than-expected revenue this year and UBS drops after reporting a slightly worse-than-expected fourth-quarter loss. Here are the most notable European movers:
Shares in BP rise as much as 6.9% to the highest since November after fourth-quarter profit beat estimates and the oil major announced an accelerated buyback program. The plan to repurchase $1.75 billion of shares each quarter in the first half of the year is a “welcome positive,” RBC says.
Shares in BE Semiconductor gain as much as 4.6% to an intraday record, after Exane initiates coverage with an outperform rating and a Street-high price target, describing the chip packaging equipment maker as a “future AI enabler.”
Shares in MorphoSys jump as much as 16% to €66.58 in Frankfurt after Novartis agreed to buy the German biotech for €68 per share. The shares closed 36% higher on Monday after a Reuters report about the deal, which was confirmed after the close. Analysts say the deal fits in with Novartis’ strategy and expect a smooth integration. Novartis shares rise as much as 0.9%.
Shares in Aurubis rise as much as 5.6%, erasing earlier losses after the German metals company reported results, with Baader seeing long-term positives after a difficult year. Analysts highlighted uncertainty around management succession.
Shares in Demant gain as much as 9.2% after the Danish hearing-aid and audio-equipment maker provided an outlook for 2024 and said it will undertake a strategic review of its communications business. A sale of this asset could unlock value for shareholders, according to Jefferies analysts.
Shares in UBS decline as much as 3.4% after the Swiss lender’s fourth-quarter earnings miss disappointed analysts, even as it announced a better-than-expected dividend. The bank said it will resume share buybacks this year.
Shares in Nordic Semiconductor tumble as much as 23%, the most since 2018, after giving a first-quarter revenue forecast that was much weaker than expected. The company cited continued inventory corrections, yet Morgan Stanley analysts say the firm’s outlook, which is more pessimistic than peers, raises questions over its competitive footing.
Shares in LVMH slip as much as 0.9% as the luxury-goods maker is downgraded to hold from buy at HSBC, with analysts saying that, while the shares have seen a “well-deserved” post-results squeeze, sales growth in the first half is still expected to be muted.
Shares in Infineon fall as much as 3% after the chipmaker reduced full-year guidance, noting a slowdown of demand for automotive chips outside of China and a delayed recovery in some other segments.
Shares in Alfa Laval decline as much as 4.2%, the most since March and the biggest drop in Stockholm’s OMX 30 benchmark, after the Swedish industrial equipment firm reported disappointing 4Q figures, including a miss on earnings per share.
The biggest market moves were in Asia which advanced to head for their highest in three weeks, after Chinese equities soared on speculation authorities are planning more forceful efforts to end the rout. Regulators plan to brief President Xi Jinping on the market as soon as Tuesday. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped almost 5%, while a broader gauge of emerging market equities headed for its biggest advance this year. “While the bounce today is strong and certainly welcome, investors will probably want more concrete actions to be taken by policy makers,” said Eugene Leow, fixed income strategist at Dbs Bank Ltd. “Sentiment on Chinese assets has been in the doldrums for some time.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% amid news on measures in China to stem the stock rout, including tightening trading restrictions on domestic institutional investors and some offshore units — as well as a Bloomberg report that regulators in China plan to update the top leadership on market conditions and policy initiatives as soon as Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index gained the most since July, and the CSI 300 advanced the most since November 2022. Central Huijin Investment, a key unit of the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, vowed to continue purchasing exchange-traded funds.
“Huijin’s purchase will guide and encourage more funds to buy and also confirms the market speculation on more state buying recently,” said Zhou Nan, investment director at Long Hui Fund Management. “There’s very limited room for further slide, but the market may continue to fluctuate before the bottom can be solidified,” he said.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is unchanged; front-end risk reversals in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index closed at the highest level since Nov. 13 on Monday as traders turned focus to next week’s US CPI data. The Aussie tops the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% versus the greenback after the RBA left interest rates on hold and said further hikes could not be ruled out. The AUDUSD rose as much as 0.6% 0.6521 to erase week-to-date losses. Leveraged buying kicked in as rate differentials to US yields were seen contracting post the decision, traders said. “What worries me most, is that we don’t manage to bring inflation back down to target without collateral damage, more damage in the labor market that we’d like,” RBA Governor Michele Bullock said at a press conference following the decision.
In rates, the treasuries curve edged steeper with yields narrowly mixed and front-end outperforming slightly on the day. US yields richer by 1bp-2bp across front-end of the curve with long-end yields slightly cheaper on the day, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1bp-2bp vs Monday’s close; the 10-year yield is higher by 2bps at 4.1675% in a narrow daily range after climbing 28bp over past two sessions, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2.5bp and 1bp. Gilts underpinned in London session following strong demand for UK green bonds. Treasury auctions resume at 1pm with $54b 3-year note sale, followed by $42b 10-year and $25b 30-year new issues Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield at ~4.228% is around 12bp cheaper than January’s stop-out, which stopped through by 1.1bps. US session features several Fed speakers and start of Treasury auction cycle with 3-year note sale.
Oil prices are close to flat, with WTI trading near $72.80. Spot gold is also little moved on the day at around $2,024.
Bitcoin holds above the USD 43k mark, and Ethereum (+2.2%) continues to outperform, taking the coin above USD 2.3k.
Looking to the day ahead now, the US econ calendar is empty while data releases in Europe include German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for December, the German and UK construction PMIs for January, and the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, Kashkari and Collins. And today’s earnings releases include Ford.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,966.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 484.75
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.32%
Euro little changed at $1.0744
MXAP up 0.7% to 166.94
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 511.39
Nikkei down 0.5% to 36,160.66
Topix down 0.7% to 2,539.25
Hang Seng Index up 4.0% to 16,136.87
Shanghai Composite up 3.2% to 2,789.49
Sensex up 0.6% to 72,177.50
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,581.58
Kospi down 0.6% to 2,576.20
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $77.79/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $2,024.56
US Dollar Index little changed at 104.41
Top Overnight News
European stocks rose, bolstered by strong results from BP Plc, while global bond markets steadied after the biggest two-day selloff in months.
Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged and signaled further tightening remains possible, joining global peers in pushing back against expectations for near-term easing and sending the currency and bond yields higher.
Anticipation is mounting for more forceful Chinese government efforts to end the nation’s stock rout, with regulators planning to brief President Xi Jinping on the market as soon as Tuesday.
Reliable sources of liquidity are at the top of traders’ minds as they brace for another year of turbulence, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. electronic trading survey.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsuqawk
APAC stocks were somewhat mixed as Chinese market stabilisation efforts offset the early headwinds from Wall Street where yields climbed to YTD highs after hot ISM Services data and recent hawkish Fed rhetoric. ASX 200 declined with weakness in tech and real estate amid rising yields, while attention was also on the RBA which maintained its rates as expected and reiterated its hawkish rhetoric. Nikkei 225 was subdued after disappointing household spending and soft wage data but with the downside cushioned amid a slew of earnings releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with sentiment boosted by China’s latest market stabilisation efforts including reports China’s sovereign fund will further increase ETF holdings, while the CSRC also encouraged listed firms to buy back more shares to inject more capital into the A-share market.
Top Asian News
China’s securities regulator said it encourages listed firms to buy back more shares to inject more capital into the A-share market and make every effort to maintain stable market operations, while it will guide institutional investors to increase stock investment. Furthermore, it was later reported that Chinese President Xi is set to discuss China’s stock market with regulators.
Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC’s unit Central Huijin said it fully recognises A-shares’ allocation value and increased ETF holdings recently, while it will continue to increase holding size, according to Bloomberg.
US President Biden’s administration sent five senior Treasury officials to Beijing this week for economic talks including on subsidies and China’s “non-market” policies that are ending excess industrial capacity, according to a Treasury official cited by Reuters.
RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and that a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out. RBA also repeated that returning inflation to the target within a reasonable timeframe remains the board’s highest priority and although it noted that inflation continued to ease in the December quarter, it added that inflation remains high at 4.1%. Furthermore, it stated the Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and said that inflation is still weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy lowered the forecasts for inflation and GDP, while it noted that risks to the outlook are balanced and stated the level of demand is still above the economy’s capacity to supply, creating price pressures.
RBA Governor Bullock said at the press conference that the situation is more back to normal than during the pandemic and that everyone is focused on inflation, while she added there is still more work to do and still a little way to go to get inflation down. Furthermore, she stated that risk remains that inflation expectations drift further and they are not ruling anything in or out on policy, while they need to be convinced on inflation before thinking of cutting rates.
BoJ is on track for a policy shift by April, via Reuters citing sources; assisted by wage outlook. Piece adds that the BoJ is laying the groundwork to end NIRP by April and overhaul other policy framework areas, but likely to go slow on subsequent action
European bourses are mixed, having initially traded entirely in the green taking impetus from positive Chinese trade overnight; the FTSE 100 outperforms post-BP (+5.9%) earnings. European sectors are mixed; Energy is the clear outperformer propped up by strength in Energy after BP’s strong results. To the downside, Utilities is hampered by a broker downgrade at RWE (-1.1%) and UBS (-2.9%) numbers are weighing on Financials. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.4%) are mixed with outperformance in the NQ lifted by improved sentiment within the Tech sector and as NVDA (+1.4%) looks to breach the USD 700/shr level for the first time.
Top European News
Barclays noted that UK January consumer spending rose 3.1% Y/Y with more consumers shopping online due to cold weather, while consumer confidence about personal finances was at the highest since November 2021.
ECB’s de Cos says is confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Dec) – 12-months ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.5%); 3-year ahead 2.5% (prev. 2.4%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at -1.3%
FX
Dollar remains at elevated levels after a combination of NFP, hawkish Fed speak and strong ISM sent the DXY to a YTD peak at 104.60 yesterday. DXY remains above its 100DMA at 104.21, though not much in the way of upside until 105.
EUR still in a downtrend since late-Dec; currently remains in place after the pair took out its 100DMA to the downside yesterday at 1.0783 and printed a YTD trough at 1.0723.
The JPY is relatively steady vs. the USD after advancing to a fresh YTD peak yesterday at 148.89. Fate of the pair will ultimately depend on the relative Fed vs. BoJ policy path.
AUD is the G10 outperformer following the “hawkish hold” from the RBA and strong Chinese equity performance overnight. That being said, it was unable to maintain 0.65+ status with yesterday’s YTD trough of 0.6486 in close proximity.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1082 vs exp. 7.2057 (prev. 7.1070).
Fixed Income
USTs are a touch firmer, though has been edging off best levels throughout the European morning. Yields are lower across the curve with modest bull-flattening; the docket for today includes supply (3yr) and Fed speak from Mester, Collins, Harker & Kashkari, trough for today at 110-26.
Bunds are a touch firmer as the complex generally rebounds from the post-NFP/Powell/corporate-supply induced pressure of Monday’s session. Thus far, broader macro drivers are relatively limited with the complex unreactive to German Industrial data and an ECB survey.
Gilts is the modest outperformer, though this follows recent underperformance as BoE expectations have been subject to a more hawkish re-pricing.
Spain has started the 30yr syndicated bond sales with EUR 50bln in initial demand, according to the lead manager.
Commodities
Crude is modestly firmer, having initially started the session on a softer footing, with overall specifics light for the complex; currently, Brent holds just above USD 78/bbl.
Spot gold is around flat and unable to benefit from the modest pullback in the Dollar and lower yield environment; resides just under the 21-DMA at USD 2029/oz, 50-DMA above at USD 2034/oz.
Base metals are bid, deriving support from the firmer APAC handover given the strength seen in China from support measures into the Lunar New Year celebration period.
Citi: TTF prices could average USD 8.5/MMBTU in Q1 (circa. EUR 27/MWh), but then surpass USD 10/MMBTU during Q2.
Petrobras CEO said the Co. will expand refining capacity by 25% in four years, according to Reuters.
Earnings
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.71 (exp. 3.65), Revenue 3.42bln (exp. 3.39bln). Co. said it is navigating a soft landing by managing what is in its control, especially limiting over shipment of products to customers. Sees Q1 Adj. EPS USD 2.97-3.38 (exp. 3.17). Sees Q1 revenue USD 3.03bln-3.23bln (exp. 3.17bln). (Newswires) Shares +2.8% pre-market
Palantir (PLTR) – Q4 23 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.08), revenue 608mln (exp. 602mln). Q124 revenue view 612-616mln (exp. 617mln). FY revenue view 2.652-2.668bln (exp. 2.66bln). Said demand for large language models from commercial institutions in the US continued to be “unrelenting,” and it is focussed on the rollout of its AI; adds momentum with AI product is now significantly contributing to new revenue and new customers. Sees Q1 revenue between USD 612-616mln (exp. 617mln), Q1 operating income seen at USD 198mln (exp. 171mln); for the FY, revenue seen between USD 2.652-2.668bln (exp. 2.66bln), and operating income seen between USD 834-850mln (exp. 760mln). (Newswires) Shares +18.4% pre-market
Semiconductors – US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the US will announce several more semiconductor chips funding announcements over the next six to eight weeks, adding that there was no artificial timeline, adding that the US will award funds as quick as possible.
BP (BP/ LN) – Q4 (USD): EPS 0.18 (exp. 0.15), adj. EBITDA 10.56bln (exp. 9.2bln), Profit 0.4bln (prev. 4.9bln), adj. for inventory holding losses of 1.2bln and adverse 1.5bln impact. USD 1.75bln buyback & dividend of USD 0.07270/shr, +10% Q/Q for Q1. USD 3.5bln buyback in H1 2024, plans buybacks of at least USD 14bln through 2025. Q1 Guidance: Upstream production higher vs Q4. Customer business: expects seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one-off positive effects from Q4. Expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply. Products: expects a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity vs Q4. “expects lower industry refining margins, with a larger reduction in realized margins due to narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials.” 2024 Guidance: Reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher vs 2023. Customers: expects continued growth from convenience. Products: lower level of industry refining margins, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials and for “refinery turnaround activity to have a similar impact on both throughput and financial performance compared to 2023, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half.” Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments to be around 1.2bln pre-tax, incl. 1.1bln to be paid in Q2. In other news, Whiting, Indiana refinery (435k BPD) is continuing assessment following a power outage, according to Reuters. (Reuters/Newswires) Shares +5.4% in European trade
Infineon (IFX GY) – Q1 (EUR): EPS 0.44 (exp. 0.46), Revenue 3.7bln (exp. 3.83bln). Cuts outlook citing market environment outside automotive remains weak and does not expect noticeable recovery in demand until H2’24. Guides Q2 Revenue approx. 3.6bln (exp. 4.1bln). Segment result margin approx. 18%. Provides FY24 Guidance: Cuts FY24 Revenue 15.5-16.5bln (exp. 18.2bln, prev. guidance 16.5-17.5bln), adj. gross margin “low to mid 40s %” (prev. guidance 45%), adj. FCF 1.8bln (prev. guidance 2.2bln). (Newswires) Shares -3.0% in European trade
Geopolitics
US Central Command said its forces conducted a strike in self-defence against two Houthi explosive uncrewed surface vehicles, according to Reuters.
Yemen’s Houthis says they targets one US and one British ship with naval missiles, via group’s spokesperson
US Event Calendar
Nothing major scheduled
Central bank speakers
12:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Economic Outlook
13:00: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Moderated Discussion
14:00: Fed’s Collins Delivers Opening Remarks at Labor Market Confere
19:00: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Fed’s Role in Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from breakfast now at Heathrow, lunch in Brussels and dinner in Paris. As I type from a very windy airport (always nice as you’re boarding a plane) the bond market sell-off is easing a bit in Asia but it’s generally been a tough 48 hours for rates. That continued yesterday as a bunch of hawkish headlines meant investors priced out the probabilities of rate cuts this year. I n part, that was because markets were catching up to Fed Chair Powell’s ’60 Minutes’ interview over the weekend that we discussed yesterday, which didn’t signal much hurry to cut rates. But on top of that, we got some hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, whilst the ISM services index also surprised on the upside, with a significant jump in the prices paid component. So there was plenty of fresh momentum behind the selloff. Indeed, since the jobs report on Friday, the 10yr Treasury yield has risen by +27.8bps, which is the biggest 2-day jump since June 2022, back when the Fed suddenly geared up to hike by 75bps for the first time since the 1990s. So we shouldn’t underestimate the moves or the volatility.
In terms of those drivers, the first (to briefly echo comments from yesterday) was the ‘60 Minutes’ interview, where Powell said that the “danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done”. Moreover, the interview was recorded before the jobs report came out, so it’s reasonable to assume that things may have got a bit more hawkish since. That meant Treasuries had already got the day off to a rocky start, but that was then cemented by a blog post from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. He said that “ It is possible, at least during the post-pandemic recovery period, that the policy stance that represents neutral has increased.” And in turn, he wrote that “gives the FOMC time to assess upcoming economic data before starting to lower the federal funds rate”. So that echoes remarks from other officials, which suggests they’re not in a rush to start rate cuts.
Aside from the hawkish remarks, the latest round of data gave the selloff a further push, as the ISM services index surprised on the upside at 53.4 (vs. 52.0 expected). And significantly, the prices paid subcomponent surged to an 11-month high of 64.0 (vs. 56.7 expected), which added a warning that inflationary pressures are still around. So that will be concerning to the Fed, particularly since Powell commented that inflation was still yet to hit their target on a 12-month basis.
Later in the day we also got some more positive data from the Fed Senior Loan Officer’s survey (SLOOS). This showed the recent sharp tightening of credit conditions moderating in Q4, with credit standards for commercial & industrial loans tightening at their slowest pace in seven quarters. Credit conditions remain tight but the downside risks for activity suggested by the SLOOS are easing.
On the topic of greater US economic optimism, our US economists released an updated outlook overnight. The key change is that they no longer expect a mild recession to emerge during H1-24 and now foresee 2024 real GDP growth at a solid 1.9% (Q4/Q4). They continue to anticipate that the first rate cut will come in June but that the Fed will only cut rates by 100bps this year. See their full report here.
With the upbeat macro backdrop in mind, investors dialled back their expectations for rate cuts this year, adding to the moves after the jobs report on Friday. For instance by the close, futures were pricing in just a 17% chance of a March cut, the lowest in over two months. And looking at the year as a whole, only 113bps of cuts were priced in by the December meeting, which is the lowest so far in 2024, and a reduction of -11.6bps relative to Friday and down from 168bps at the peak on January 12. So it’s clear that markets are now anticipating a significantly more hawkish profile over the months ahead, with roughly 4-5 cuts priced in for 2024, down from 6-7 just over three weeks ago.
Given the combination of hawkish comments, strong data, and fewer cuts being priced, it was a bleak day for sovereign bonds. US Treasuries were at the forefront of that, with the 10yr yield up +13.7bps to 4.16%. And it meant the 2-day increase now stands at +27.8bps, the largest since June 2022. Meanwhile at the front-end, the 2yr yield rose another +10.8bps to 4.47%, bringing the 2-day increase up to +26.9bps, which is the largest since last March shortly after the regional banking turmoil. Both 2 and 10yr yields are rallying back 3-4bps in Asia though. Before that overnight rally the US rates sell-off boosted the dollar, with the broad dollar index (+0.51% yesterday after +0.85% Friday) seeing its strongest 2-day rally since this time last year. It’s only off a tenth of a percent in Asia this morning.
Yesterday’s moves for US Treasuries were echoed in other markets, with yields on 10yr bunds (+7.5bps), OATs (+7.0bps) and BTPs (+6.9bps) seeing significant moves of their own. And similarly, investors grew more sceptical about the chance of ECB cuts happening soon, with the probability of a cut by the April meeting down to 68%, having been at 75% on Friday. So there’s a growing sense that the major central banks might wait until later in Q2, if not beyond, before they feel confident adjusting their policy rates.
The prospect of fewer rate cuts meant that equities struggled as well. The S&P 500 (-0.32%) came off its record high on Friday. While the S&P did partially recover after trading -0.8% down early in the session, the decline was broad with 83% of its constituents lower on the day. In keeping with a theme from this year, it was small-cap stocks that suffered in particular, with the Russell 2000 down -1.30%, whilst the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.86%) was back into negative territory for 2024 so far. There were continued losses for regional banks as well, with the KBW Regional Bank Index (-1.85%) seeing all 47 members lose ground. That included a further loss for New York Community Bancorp (-10.6%), which followed the news from Fitch Ratings after Friday’s close that they were downgrading NYCB to BBB- from BBB. Chipmakers were the notable outperformer, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +1.18%, led by a +4.77% gain for Nvidia. However, this did not translate into broader tech gains, with the Magnificent 7 down -0.24%. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.05%) posted a marginal decline.
Chinese stocks have been rallying hard overnight, especially just before we go to print as measures continue to be rolled out to halt the recent slump. In addition it’s being reported that the Chinese securities regulator is preparing a report on the stock market for President Xi which perhaps helps explain the seriousness of the situation. In fast markets the Hang Seng (+3.3%), the CSI (+2.6%) and the Shanghai Composite (+2.3%) are all higher. Other Asian markets are a bit lower with the Nikkei (-0.32%), the KOSPI (-0.70%) and the ASX (-0.69%) down with Aussie markets reacting to the RBA leaving rates unchanged but with a comment that further hikes couldn’t be ruled out even if the tone is towards the next move being a cut.
The central bank in its statement highlighted that inflation remains too high despite it falling in recent months. It would still consider more rate increases if price pressures remained sticky. Following the decision, the Aussie rose +0.49%, to trade at 0.652 versus the dollar. Meanwhile, the RBA has slightly lowered its near-term inflation forecasts, expecting it to be within its 2% to 3% target band at 2.8% by the end of 2025, before achieving the midpoint of the band by around mid-2026.
In early morning data, household spending in Japan dipped more than expected in December, falling 2.5% y/y compared with the -2.1% estimate as against a -2.9% prior drop. Also, real wages fell for a 21st straight month though at a slower pace, declining -1.9% y/y in December (v/s -1.5% expected), compared to a revised decline of -2.5% in the previous month.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, we did get the final services and composite PMIs from around the world. In the Euro Area, the final January composite PMI was in line with the flash reading, at 47.9. But in the UK there was an upgrade to 52.9 (vs. flash 52.5), whilst in the US there was a downgrade to 52.0 (vs. flash 52.3). Separately, we also heard that Euro Area PPI was at -10.6% in December.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for December, the German and UK construction PMIs for January, and the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for December. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, Kashkari and Collins. And today’s earnings releases include Ford.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities mixed though the FTSE 100 bid post-BP earning, AUD higher post-RBA; Fed speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 05:57 AM
European equities are mixed with outperformance in the FTSE 100, post-BP earning; US equity futures in-fitting, NQ bid
Dollar is marginally firmer and AUD the G10 outperformer following a “hawkish hold” at the RBA
Bonds modestly firmer, though have been edging lower throughout the European morning
Crude and XAU hold around the unchanged mark; base metals are propped up on Chinese stabilisation efforts
Looking ahead, Canadian Ivey PMI, NZ Jobs data, Comments from Fed’s Mester, Harker, Kashkari, Collins & BoC’s Macklem, Supply from the US, Earnings from Eli Lily, Ford, GE Healthcare & Chipotle.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed, having initially traded entirely in the green taking impetus from positive Chinese trade overnight; the FTSE 100 outperforms post-BP (+5.9%) earnings.
European sectors are mixed; Energy is the clear outperformer propped up by strength in Energy after BP’s strong results. To the downside, Utilities is hampered by a broker downgrade at RWE (-1.1%) and UBS (-2.9%) numbers are weighing on Financials.
US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.4%) are mixed with outperformance in the NQ lifted by improved sentiment within the Tech sector and as NVDA (+1.4%) looks to breach the USD 700/shr level for the first time.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from BP (strong), Infineon (cut guidance) & more.
Dollar remains at elevated levels after a combination of NFP, hawkish Fed speak and strong ISM sent the DXY to a YTD peak at 104.60 yesterday. DXY remains above its 100DMA at 104.21, though not much in the way of upside until 105.
EUR still in a downtrend since late-Dec; currently remains in place after the pair took out its 100DMA to the downside yesterday at 1.0783 and printed a YTD trough at 1.0723.
The JPY is relatively steady vs. the USD after advancing to a fresh YTD peak yesterday at 148.89. Fate of the pair will ultimately depend on the relative Fed vs. BoJ policy path.
AUD is the G10 outperformer following the “hawkish hold” from the RBA and strong Chinese equity performance overnight. That being said, it was unable to maintain 0.65+ status with yesterday’s YTD trough of 0.6486 in close proximity.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1082 vs exp. 7.2057 (prev. 7.1070).
USTs are a touch firmer, though has been edging off best levels throughout the European morning. Yields are lower across the curve with modest bull-flattening; the docket for today includes supply (3yr) and Fed speak from Mester, Collins, Harker & Kashkari, trough for today at 110-26.
Bunds are a touch firmer as the complex generally rebounds from the post-NFP/Powell/corporate-supply induced pressure of Monday’s session. Thus far, broader macro drivers are relatively limited with the complex unreactive to German Industrial data and an ECB survey.
Gilts is the modest outperformer, though this follows recent underperformance as BoE expectations have been subject to a more hawkish re-pricing.
Spain has started the 30yr syndicated bond sales with EUR 50bln in initial demand, according to the lead manager.
Crude is modestly firmer, having initially started the session on a softer footing, with overall specifics light for the complex; currently, Brent holds just above USD 78/bbl.
Spot gold is around flat and unable to benefit from the modest pullback in the Dollar and lower yield environment; resides just under the 21-DMA at USD 2029/oz, 50-DMA above at USD 2034/oz.
Base metals are bid, deriving support from the firmer APAC handover given the strength seen in China from support measures into the Lunar New Year celebration period.
Citi: TTF prices could average USD 8.5/MMBTU in Q1 (circa. EUR 27/MWh), but then surpass USD 10/MMBTU during Q2.
Petrobras CEO said the Co. will expand refining capacity by 25% in four years, according to Reuters.
Barclays noted that UK January consumer spending rose 3.1% Y/Y with more consumers shopping online due to cold weather, while consumer confidence about personal finances was at the highest since November 2021.
ECB’s de Cos says is confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Dec) – 12-months ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.5%); 3-year ahead 2.5% (prev. 2.4%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at -1.3%
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jan) 1.4% (Prev. 1.9%); BRC Total Sales YY (Jan) 1.2% (Prev. 1.7%)
German Industrial Orders MM (Dec) 8.9% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.3%)
German HCOB Construction PMI (Jan) 36.3 (Prev. 37)
EU HCOB Construction PMI (Jan) 41.3 (Prev. 43.6)
Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Jan) 51.6 (Prev. 55.2)
French HCOB Construction PMI (Jan) 39.6 (Prev. 42.6)
Italian Mfg Business Confidence (Jan) 88.3 (Prev. 95.4, Rev. 87.3); Consumer Confidence (Jan) 96.4 (Prev. 106.7, Rev. 95.8)
UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan) 48.8 vs. Exp. 47.3 (Prev. 46.8)
EU Retail Sales YY (Dec) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -0.4%); Retail Sales MM (Dec) -1.1% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the US expects to announce several more semiconductor chips funding announcements in the next six to eight weeks, while she added there is no artificial timeline and vowed to award funds as soon as possible but get it right.
White House said the administration strongly opposes a standalone Israel aid bill which President Biden would veto.
EARNINGS
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.71 (exp. 3.65), Revenue 3.42bln (exp. 3.39bln). Co. said it is navigating a soft landing by managing what is in its control, especially limiting over shipment of products to customers. Sees Q1 Adj. EPS USD 2.97-3.38 (exp. 3.17). Sees Q1 revenue USD 3.03bln-3.23bln (exp. 3.17bln). (Newswires) Shares +2.8% pre-market
Palantir (PLTR) – Q4 23 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.08), revenue 608mln (exp. 602mln). Q124 revenue view 612-616mln (exp. 617mln). FY revenue view 2.652-2.668bln (exp. 2.66bln). Said demand for large language models from commercial institutions in the US continued to be “unrelenting,” and it is focussed on the rollout of its AI; adds momentum with AI product is now significantly contributing to new revenue and new customers. Sees Q1 revenue between USD 612-616mln (exp. 617mln), Q1 operating income seen at USD 198mln (exp. 171mln); for the FY, revenue seen between USD 2.652-2.668bln (exp. 2.66bln), and operating income seen between USD 834-850mln (exp. 760mln). (Newswires) Shares +18.4% pre-market
Semiconductors – US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the US will announce several more semiconductor chips funding announcements over the next six to eight weeks, adding that there was no artificial timeline, adding that the US will award funds as quick as possible.
BP (BP/ LN) – Q4 (USD): EPS 0.18 (exp. 0.15), adj. EBITDA 10.56bln (exp. 9.2bln), Profit 0.4bln (prev. 4.9bln), adj. for inventory holding losses of 1.2bln and adverse 1.5bln impact. USD 1.75bln buyback & dividend of USD 0.07270/shr, +10% Q/Q for Q1. USD 3.5bln buyback in H1 2024, plans buybacks of at least USD 14bln through 2025. Q1 Guidance: Upstream production higher vs Q4. Customer business: expects seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one-off positive effects from Q4. Expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply. Products: expects a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity vs Q4. “expects lower industry refining margins, with a larger reduction in realized margins due to narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials.” 2024 Guidance: Reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher vs 2023. Customers: expects continued growth from convenience. Products: lower level of industry refining margins, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials and for “refinery turnaround activity to have a similar impact on both throughput and financial performance compared to 2023, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half.” Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments to be around 1.2bln pre-tax, incl. 1.1bln to be paid in Q2. In other news, Whiting, Indiana refinery (435k BPD) is continuing assessment following a power outage, according to Reuters. (Reuters/Newswires) Shares +5.4% in European trade
Infineon (IFX GY) – Q1 (EUR): EPS 0.44 (exp. 0.46), Revenue 3.7bln (exp. 3.83bln). Cuts outlook citing market environment outside automotive remains weak and does not expect noticeable recovery in demand until H2’24. Guides Q2 Revenue approx. 3.6bln (exp. 4.1bln). Segment result margin approx. 18%. Provides FY24 Guidance: Cuts FY24 Revenue 15.5-16.5bln (exp. 18.2bln, prev. guidance 16.5-17.5bln), adj. gross margin “low to mid 40s %” (prev. guidance 45%), adj. FCF 1.8bln (prev. guidance 2.2bln). (Newswires) Shares -3.0% in European trade
GEOPOLITICS
US Central Command said its forces conducted a strike in self-defence against two Houthi explosive uncrewed surface vehicles, according to Reuters.
Yemen’s Houthis says they targets one US and one British ship with naval missiles, via group’s spokesperson
CRYPTO
Bitcoin holds above the USD 43k mark, and Ethereum (+2.2%) continues to outperform, taking the coin above USD 2.3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were somewhat mixed as Chinese market stabilisation efforts offset the early headwinds from Wall Street where yields climbed to YTD highs after hot ISM Services data and recent hawkish Fed rhetoric.
ASX 200 declined with weakness in tech and real estate amid rising yields, while attention was also on the RBA which maintained its rates as expected and reiterated its hawkish rhetoric.
Nikkei 225 was subdued after disappointing household spending and soft wage data but with the downside cushioned amid a slew of earnings releases.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp outperformed with sentiment boosted by China’s latest market stabilisation efforts including reports China’s sovereign fund will further increase ETF holdings, while the CSRC also encouraged listed firms to buy back more shares to inject more capital into the A-share market.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China’s securities regulator said it encourages listed firms to buy back more shares to inject more capital into the A-share market and make every effort to maintain stable market operations, while it will guide institutional investors to increase stock investment. Furthermore, it was later reported that Chinese President Xi is set to discuss China’s stock market with regulators.
Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC’s unit Central Huijin said it fully recognises A-shares’ allocation value and increased ETF holdings recently, while it will continue to increase holding size, according to Bloomberg.
US President Biden’s administration sent five senior Treasury officials to Beijing this week for economic talks including on subsidies and China’s “non-market” policies that are ending excess industrial capacity, according to a Treasury official cited by Reuters.
RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and that a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out. RBA also repeated that returning inflation to the target within a reasonable timeframe remains the board’s highest priority and although it noted that inflation continued to ease in the December quarter, it added that inflation remains high at 4.1%. Furthermore, it stated the Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and said that inflation is still weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment. RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy lowered the forecasts for inflation and GDP, while it noted that risks to the outlook are balanced and stated the level of demand is still above the economy’s capacity to supply, creating price pressures.
RBA Governor Bullock said at the press conference that the situation is more back to normal than during the pandemic and that everyone is focused on inflation, while she added there is still more work to do and still a little way to go to get inflation down. Furthermore, she stated that risk remains that inflation expectations drift further and they are not ruling anything in or out on policy, while they need to be convinced on inflation before thinking of cutting rates.
BoJ is on track for a policy shift by April, via Reuters citing sources; assisted by wage outlook. Piece adds that the BoJ is laying the groundwork to end NIRP by April and overhaul other policy framework areas, but likely to go slow on subsequent action
DATA RECAP
Japanese All Household Spending MM (Dec) -0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -1.0%); All Household Spending YY (Dec) -2.5% vs. Exp. -2.1% (Prev. -2.9%); Overall Labour Cash Earnings (Dec) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
Australian Retail Trade (Q4) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. -0.1%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 87.30 PTS OR 3.23% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 626.86 PTS OR 4.04% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 193.50 OR 0.53% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.59% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1890 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1958 /Oil UP TO 73.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 78.55/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA
CHINA/
Their plunge protection team ready to pull the trigger but not yet. Just jawboning
(zerohedge)
Chinese Stocks Soar Overnight As Regulators Brief Xi On $7 Trillion Trainwreck
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 08:43 AM
After tumbling the prior day following remarks on heavy tariffs from presidential front-runner Donald Trump, Chinese stocks rallied significantly across the board overnight after reports that regulators planned to brief President Xi Jinping on the financial market as soon as Tuesday.
The Xi-Briefing was the final headline in a day full of jawboning which included sovereign fund Central Huijin (translation: the plunge protectors) vowing to buy more ETFs, and China’s securities watchdog vowing to ‘guide’ (translation: coerce) institutional investors and funds to increase their A-share holdings.
“Huijin’s purchase will guide and encourage more funds to buy and also confirms the market speculation on more state buying recently,” said Zhou Nan, investment director at Long Hui Fund Management.
“There’s very limited room for further slide, but the market may continue to fluctuate before the bottom can be solidified,” he said.
It worked, as it tends to temporarily, with the CSI 300 surging 3.5% (its best day since late 2022)…
For context, that lifts the broad index to one-week highs…
While that all sounds very impressive, in context it is a fart in a hurricane (here is the small cap CSI 1000’s 7% surge)…
But of course, there’s always the risk that they fail to actually ‘do’ anything and we fade back to news lows as has been the case again and again over the last year.
Some $7 trillion of value has been wiped off Hong Kong and China equities since their peaks in 2021 and piecemeal approaches to support the economy and stabilize markets have so far failed to lift sentiment.
Most importantly, as we noted previously, the lack of stimulus (amid China’s real estate sector crisis and escalating tensions with Washington on trade) has had a very adverse impact on both economic and market sentiment at a time when China’s middle class is growing increasingly restless and pitchforky, resulting in a surge in labor strikes and (mostly peaceful) protests.
And while a quiet, painless sovereign suicide may be an option for Japan – with its demographic disaster and rapidly aging population where more adult than baby diapers have been sold for years; for China – which still has a young, vibrant and increasingly angry population – this is not an option as the coming tidal wave of unrest could easily result in the one thing the Chinese Communist Party dreads the most, a revolution.
However, despite the modest reaction, Xi’s involvement means it’s different this time as some are wondering if this is the last ‘verbal bazooka’ before they are forced to actually do something.
“The news that the nation’s number one is holding a meeting is an encouraging development as it shows that the plunge is getting close to punching through the authorities’ comfort level,” said Li Weiqing, fund manager at JH Investment Management Co.
“It gives me the impression that they are doing everything they can, apart from calling out to the market — now is the time to buy.”
How much longer can Beijing wait?
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
European banks were covertly moving Iranian funds around the world and this brought on terror in the middle east
(zerohedge)
Major European Banks At Center Of Complex Iran Sanctions Evasion Scandal
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Ever since Obama’s very short-lived nuclear deal with Iran was scrapped by the subsequent Trump administration, Tehran has ramped up its efforts at sanctions evasion, which has especially relied on a fleet of ‘ghost tankers’ sailing primarily to China.
But the story of the secret cooperation of reputable European banks, and sophisticated efforts to hide large Iranian transactions has been a more interesting development, and this week Lloyds and Santander UK (based in Spain) have been in the spotlight, causing their shares to take significant hits on Monday. One Europe-based broker has observed, “The market must be realizing that they may be fined.”
A new Financial Times report has raised uncomfortable questions based on smoking gun internal documents which show two of Europe’s biggest banks covertly moving Iranian funds around the world on behalf of an Iranian petrochemicals company based in London.
What’s more is that the Iran’s state-controlled Petrochemical Commercial Company even has offices physically located close to Buckingham Palace. FT writes that the company is “part of a network that the US accuses of raising hundreds of millions of dollars for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force and of working with Russian intelligence agencies to raise money for Iranian proxy militias.”
“Both PCC and its British subsidiary PCC UK have been under US sanctions since November 2018,” the report continues. “Documents, emails and accounting records show that during this time PCC’s UK division has continued to operate out of an office in Grosvenor Gardens in Belgravia by using a complex web of front entities in Britain and other countries.
While this has been going on for years, the scandal has likely only broken out into public reporting given the US and UK coalition are slipping into an active state of war with Iranian proxies from the Red Sea to Iran and Syria. The White House has also yet to rule out targeting Iranian territory directly. It’s easy to imagine that before the fast-moving events of the Gaza war and its broader regional spillover, Washington and its allies didn’t want to probe too deep amid efforts to maintain oil price stability in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.
But certainly in light of what FT has found, it will be harder to “look the other way” on Iranian malfeasance and enablers in major Western financial institutions:
Documents analyzed by the FT show that since being placed under US sanctions PCC has used companies in the UK to receive funds from Iranian front entities in China while concealing their real ownership through “trustee agreements” and nominee directors.
One of these companies, called Pisco UK, is registered to a detached house in Surrey and used a business account with Santander UK. According to the UK corporate registry, Pisco UK is fully owned by a British national called Abdollah-Siauash Fahimi.
Interestingly, the revelations are the apparent result of Iranian opposition activists, which dumped initial documents online. “However, internal documents, some of which have been leaked online by the Iranian opposition website WikiIran, show that Pisco is fully controlled by PCC and that Fahimi signed an agreement to own the company in trust on its behalf,” details the FT report.
Entirely to be expected, China too is involved, but all of these intermediaries are claiming to still be in full compliance with the US-led sanctions regimen:
In 2021 Pisco’s Santander account received a transfer from a Chinese company called Black Tulip, which internal PCC records show is another trustee company controlled by a PCC employee. The US Treasury last year accused Iranian petrochemicals companies of using multiple front entities to evade sanctions by routing sales through Asia. Santander said it was unable to comment on specific client relationships but was “highly focused on sanctions compliance”.
Some of the internal communications brought to light show that the parties involved are fully aware of the sanctions-skirting activity:
Emails show that in July 2021 a PCC accounting official in Tehran emailed Rejal about a planned payment from China, telling him, “Please send us the safe account No. For payment.” Rejal instructed the accounting official to transfer the money into Aria Associates’ Lloyds account, writing: “Please make sure that there should not be any indication of PCC or PCC (UK).”
The FT report contains plenty of ‘smoking guns’ suggesting something akin to Iranian oil/money laundering on a large scale through Western institutions, though Tehran certainly sees it as its “right” to do legitimate business amid the ‘illegal’ Washington sanctions regimen.
Of course, those behind the report, especially the Iranian opposition activists, hope this will receive a response out of a reluctant Biden administration – reluctant given Biden is soon headed into what promises to be a tight election and needs low-priced, stabilized oil, which is also why he’s seeking to bring even Maduro’s Venezuela “in from the cold” – which as it turns out isn’t going too well.
Meanwhile, this raises some other questions concerning misplaced priorities among Western and US politicians especially…
The @SECgov is wrong on the law and wrong on the policy with respect to the Bitcoin ETF decision. If the SEC is going to let crypto burrow even deeper into our financial system, then it’s more urgent than ever that crypto follow basic anti-money laundering rules.
The American court decided approving Bitcoin ETF is lawful. The DC Circuit Court of Appeals overturned the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s bid to convert its trust into an exchange-traded fund. bnnbloomberg.ca/sec-won-t-appe…
end
ITALY
We are seeing a lot of this
(zerohedge)
Italian Deputy PM Calls For Chemical Castration After Seven Egyptian Migrants Gang Rape Girl Aged 13
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has called for people convicted of violent sexual offences to be chemically castrated, following a horrific incident last week when a group of Egyptian migrants were arrested on suspicion of gang raping a 13 year old schoolgirl in a park.
The Italian newspaper Il Giornale reports that the girl and her boyfriend were attacked in the Sicilian city of Catania by the migrant gang who then dragged the girl into a public bathroom and brutally assaulted her in front of the helpless boyfriend, who they also beat up.
The pair somehow managed to escape, but not before two of the migrants had raped the girl, according to the report.
Six of the migrants, three of whom are minors, were arrested the same evening, with the seventh detained the following day after appearing to attempt to flee the town.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addressed the victim, stating “I want to say this to express my solidarity with her and her family. The State will be there and justice will be done.”
Salvini was more direct, stating “Don’t come and talk to me about tolerance. In the face of horrors like this, there can be no clemency but only one cure: chemical castration. I count on the proposal presented by the League to be voted on as soon as possible.”
Ragazzina STUPRATA da una banda di SETTE egiziani davanti al fidanzato, minacciato, bloccato e tenuto lontano. Non venitemi a parlare di “tolleranza” o “errore”. Davanti ad orrori del genere non può esistere clemenza ma soltanto una cura: CASTRAZIONE chimica. Conto che la proposta presentata dalla Lega venga votata al più presto.
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Lega MEP Annalisa Tardino also urged “We remain firm in the idea that chemical castration is needed for rapists and pedophiles, life imprisonment for similar episodes, as well as greater security in our cities.”
Tardino also called for foreigners who commit such crimes to be “repatriated immediately,” further noting “In Egypt they would never have allowed such behavior. The safety of our children must be a priority throughout Italy.”
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/
Israel says half Hamas fighters taken out, Sinwar on run, as PM vows victory in months
Defense Minister Gallant claims Hamas leader moving ‘from hideout to hideout,’ IDF on his heels, as soldiers move toward Rafah, seek to stymie resurgence in north of Strip
A picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Younis following Israeli bombardment on February 5, 2024, as fighting continues between Israel and the Hamas terror group. (SAID KHATIB / AFP)
A picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Younis following Israeli bombardment on February 5, 2024, as fighting continues between Israel and the Hamas terror group. (SAID KHATIB / AFP)
Israel’s leaders claimed Monday that they had killed or seriously injured half of the Hamas terror group’s fighters, saying that the end of a nearly 4-month-old offensive in Gaza was a matter of months, not years, as fighting was set to spread to the southern metropolis representing the Strip’s final redoubt.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Israel would reach “complete victory,” even as military officials detailed resurgent fighting in areas of northern Gaza previously cleared by troops. The complicated situation underlines the difficulty Israel faces in meeting its war goals, though it looks to complete an unprecedented sweep by pushing into the southern city of Rafah.
And with Hamas’s top leaders still on the loose, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant insisted that the terror group’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar was on the run, out of touch with his fighters, and forced to flee from one hideout to another with the IDF hot on his heels.
“Our goal is a complete victory over Hamas,” Netanyahu told a meeting of his Likud party faction at the Knesset. “We will kill the Hamas leadership, so we must continue to operate in all areas in the Gaza Strip. We must not end the war before then. It will take time — months, not years.”
The estimate appeared to be more optimistic than a prediction Netanyahu reportedly gave local council leaders last month that the war would continue into 2025.
Visiting soldiers at Latrun in the center of the country, Netanyahu said that 18 out of 24 Hamas battalions had been destroyed, and that “there is no substitute for total victory.”
“We will not end the war without achieving that goal of total victory that will restore security,” he said. “We will not give it up.”
He did not lay out what total victory means, even as he continued to dig in on the position, during ongoing negotiations for a deal with Hamas to secure freedom for the approximately 136 hostages held by terror groups in the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center) meets with IDF soldiers in Latrun on February 5, 2024. (Haim Zach/ GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center) meets with IDF soldiers in Latrun on February 5, 2024. (Haim Zach/ GPO)
The prime minister also said that Israel is “collapsing and destroying” Hamas’s tunnel network, a vast complex of hundreds of kilometers of subterranean passages cavities it uses to house and deploy its forces.
At a press conference in Tel Aviv, Gallant said “about half of the Hamas terrorists have been killed or seriously wounded,” echoing Netanyahu.
Neither figure put a number on the Hamas casualties. Israel previously said it had killed over 10,000 Hamas operatives in Gaza.
Gallant described the ground operation as “complex and complicated,” while “progressing and achieving its goals,” with the IDF active “in most of the territory of the Gaza Strip.”
He said Hamas’s leadership, including Sinwar, is “on the run.”
A woman walks past posters depicting Yahya Sinwar (L), the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Abu Obeida (R), the masked spokesman of Hamas’s Qassam Brigades, plastered on a wall in the Burj al-Barajneh camp for Palestinian refugees in Beirut’s southern suburb on February 5, 2024. (ANWAR AMRO / AFP)
“Sinwar goes from hideout to hideout, and is unable to communicate with his surroundings,” Gallant said. “Sinwar does not lead the campaign, does not command the forces, he is busy with his personal survival. He turned from the head of Hamas into a fugitive terrorist, and IDF forces continue to pursue him.”
Gallant revealed that IDF troops have recently found significant material in the places where Sinwar “had recently been” and the information gleaned revealed insights into Hamas plans.
He asserted that disagreements between Hamas officials in the Strip and those abroad “indicate panic and distress” in the terror group.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant makes comments to the media on February 5, 2024. (Screenshot/GPO)
Echoing Netanyahu, Gallant said “18 Hamas battalions are dismantled and no longer function as fighting military frameworks.
As the IDF pushes through the Hamas tunnel network, denying them as a place of refuge for terrorists, “we are increasing the pressure on the terrorists and the leaders of the terrorist organizations,” he said, and issued a warning to remaining Hamas fighters in Rafah stronghold.
“Every terrorist hiding in Rafah should know that his end will be like those in Khan Younis and Gaza [City],” Gallant said referring to two areas conquered by the advancing Israeli military.
The defense minister repeated the assertion that the IDF’s military pressure on Hamas will advance the return of the hostages held by the terror group.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant makes comments to the media on February 5, 2024. (Screenshot/GPO)
Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas after its devastating October 7 cross-border attack that killed 1,200 people in the south of the country, mostly civilians during an invasion by thousands of terrorists from Gaza. The attackers also abducted 253 people of all ages who were taken as hostages in Gaza.
An IDF offensive, including a ground campaign in Gaza, is aimed at eliminating Hamas and removing it from power in Gaza. But another declared goal of the campaign is freeing the hostages, of which 132 abducted that day are believed to still be held, not all of them alive. Four others, including the remains of two soldiers, have been held since 2014.
Regarding the hostages, Netanyahu noted at the Likud faction meeting that 110 have been released so far, mostly during a negotiated November lull, and said the framework for any future deal will be based on a similar formula. That deal saw Israel release roughly three times as many Palestinian security prisoners held in Israel in exchange for each hostage.
“Hamas has demands that we will not agree to,” Netanyahu said. Efforts to negotiate freedom for more hostages “will not be realized at any cost,” he said.
According to Hebrew media reports, relatives of Israelis held hostage by Hamas in Gaza were turned away from the meeting, after trying to arrange access for several weeks.
US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators are aiming to secure a similar, but broader ceasefire agreement to free the remaining hostages and stop the fighting for at least several weeks. Hamas has made ending the war and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza a condition for any hostage deal.
Officials in the terror group have in the past said they are seeking the release of thousands of Palestinian security prisoners, something Netanyahu has vowed will not happen. However, the prime minister is facing public pressure to reach a deal that brings the hostages home with weekly demonstrations drawing thousands to make that demand.
Women attend a protest in Tel Aviv for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, February 1, 2024. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)
The remarks from Netanyahu and Gallant came as intense fighting continued in Gaza where the ground operation has cost the lives of 225 IDF soldiers.
Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, commander of the IDF’s 162nd Division said his forces are increasing their operations against remaining Hamas operatives and infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
The IDF largely captured northern Gaza and dismantled Hamas’s fighting force in the area in the first months of the war, withdrawing its troops and shifting fighting to the southern part of the Strip. However, in recent weeks it has redeployed in the area to keep Hamas from restaking a hold.
The IDF has estimated there are several hundred Hamas operatives still in northern Gaza.
Over the past week, the 162nd Division returned to operate in the central and northern parts of Gaza City, as well as the Shati Camp, where the military previously battled Hamas, the IDF said in the statement.
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, in an image published February 5, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The military said the troops are raiding selected areas in northern Gaza and clearing it of Hamas operatives and infrastructure in an “in-depth and thorough manner.”
So far, the 162nd Division has killed hundreds of Hamas operatives and nabbed dozens more, as well as seized weapons during the raids, it said.
The IDF also published a video of close-quarter combat experienced by troops as they face gunmen in Gaza. It showed how a gunman approached a group of paratroopers from behind and threw a grenade at them, which exploded nearby. One of the soldiers turned and shot dead the attacker, who was also armed with a knife and a second bomb.
At least 27,365 people in Gaza have been killed, according to the Hamas-ruled territory’s health ministry. The figure cannot be independently verified and does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Gazans have faced dire humanitarian conditions, and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said on X that “there is very limited access to clean water and sanitation amid relentless bombardment.”
The intense fighting has displaced hundreds of thousands of Gazans, with tens of thousands seeking safety from the war by escaping out of Gaza and into bordering Egypt.
Over 35,000 people have left the Gaza Strip for Egypt through the Rafah crossing since November, according to a spokesman for the Egyptian Border Authority quoted by al-Araby al-Jadeed, amid reports Gazans were paying bribes to leave the Strip.
The figure reportedly includes an estimated 2,000 sick and wounded people who have entered Egypt for medical treatment, as well as staff of international institutions, Egyptian passport holders, and dual citizens.
The official added that under normal circumstances, about 15,000 people a month cross the Rafah border crossing, so over three months (November-January), the expected traffic should stand at 45,000.
Palestinians flee from the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza after an Israeli ground and air offensive on January 29, 2024. (Fatima Shbair/AP)
The Qatari-owned news outlet quoted Ammar Fayed, an international relations researcher, claiming that the number of wounded people allowed to cross into Egypt for treatment is negligible and “symbolic,” as it amounts to only about 0.3% of those in need.
Egypt is said to have adopted measures to prevent the exploitation of Gazans trying to leave the Strip, after reports emerged that some of them were forced to pay as much as $10,000 to border officials to cross.
Al-Araby al-Jadeed reported that Cairo decided in mid-December to replace much of the staff manning the crossing and to appoint supervisors to monitor their work and prevent extortion.
Times of Israel staff and Agencies contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF encircles Khan Yunis hospital considered final Hamas stronghold
In Deir el-Balah, troops directed an IAF jet that subsequently eliminated a terrorist belonging to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group who had taken part in the October 7 massacre.
Israeli forces have encircled the Nasser Hospital in northern Khan Yunis, one of the “final Hamas strongholds in the southern Gaza city,” a military source told Israeli media on Tuesday.
Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck targets near the hospital early Tuesday morning. Defense establishment officials believe that senior Hamas officers and commanders who remain in Khan Yunis are hiding in the hospital.
Troops of the 98th Division and the Paratroopers Brigade continued operations in Khan Yunis, where they encountered Hamas terrorists in civilian clothes and operating out of civilian areas, the IDF’s Spokesperson’s Unit said earlier on Tuesday.
In the past few days, soldiers killed dozens of terrorists and arrested some 80 suspected terrorists, including a number of terrorists who partook in the October 7 massacre.
Givati Brigade snipers eliminated more than 15 terrorists while fighters of the 646th Brigade Combat Team killed a lookout hiding in a building.
During the operations, Paratrooper and Egoz fighters found various weapons, among others, grenades, Kalashnikov rifles, and RPG missiles, according to the IDF.
Weapons found by the IDF Paratroopers. January 6, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF kills PIJ terrorist who partook in massacre in Nir Oz
In addition, in Deir el-Balah, troops directed an IAF jet that subsequently eliminated a terrorist belonging to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group who had taken part in the October 7 massacre in Kibbutz Nir Oz. Advertisement
In parallel, a combat helicopter targeted and killed four terrorists identified by lookouts of unit 414. The group was placing observation devices in the Beit Hanoun area in an attempt to reinstall the terrorists’ intelligence system, the IDF noted.
In the north and center of the Gaza Strip, the Nahal Brigade combat team killed many terrorists in both raids and ambushes.
In the area where the Nahal fighters were operating, a missile ship detected a terrorist squad, some of which were soon killed in a joint effort by the Brigade on land, the IAF, and the navy.
The military concluded with the 401st Divisional Combat Team, which eliminated over 15 terrorists and, coordinating with the IAF, destroyed a building terrorists were using to shoot at the troops and in which explosive devices were stored.
IDF aircraft target terrorists operating in civilian areas
Later on Tuesday, the IDF said that troops of the 98th Division, along with the Givati Brigade, encountered hostile fire while opening in the Khan Yunis area.
In response, the troops directed a combat helicopter which successfully identified the source of fire operating out of the first floor of a building. The helicopter subsequently neutralized the threat, the IDF added.
STOCKHOLM — Swedish radio reports that an Iranian couple, believed to be working for Iranian intelligence, was deported after being suspected in a plot to kill Swedish Jews.
According to an investigative report by Swedish Radio (SR), the couple, Mahdi Ramezani and Fereshteh Sanaeifarid, had applied for and been granted asylum in Sweden posing as Afghans.
Suspected of plotting to kill Swedish Jews, the couple were arrested in April 2021 on suspicion of conspiracy to commit a terrorist crime, SR reports.
Due to a lack of evidence, the two were never charged but they were reportedly deported in 2022 for posing a security risk.
“We have strong belief that they were here on a mission on behalf of Iran. They were seen here in Sweden as a very severe security threat. And that’s the reason why they were expelled, even if we couldn’t prosecute them,” deputy chief prosecutor Hans Ihrman tells the broadcaster.
While the investigation was classified, SR cited sources saying that the two were working on behalf of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC.
The couple of alleged agents reportedly identified three targets, gathering addresses and photographs.
One of the suspected targets was believed to be Aron Verstandig, chair of the Official Council of Swedish Jewish communities, who tells SR that he had received a call from the Swedish Security Service in 2021, informing him that he was believed to be a target.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel now believes that 1/4 of all hostages were murdered by Hamas. They believe only 102 hostages left.
(Jerusalem Post)
Nearly quarter of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza dead, IDF believes – report
The families of the 32 deceased individuals whose deaths have been confirmed have been informed.
By SAM HALPERNFEBRUARY 6, 2024 17:37Updated: FEBRUARY 6, 2024 18:01
A woman reacts, as people gather in front of the United Nations Headquarters in Jerusalem demanding for action to be taken to return the hostages kidnapped by Hamas during the October 7 attacks, in Jerusalem November 13, 2023.(photo credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)
At least 32 hostages held in Gaza, nearly a quarter of the estimated 136 hostages held captive in the Hamas-run enclave, are dead, the New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing the IDF.
The families of the 32 deceased individuals whose deaths have been confirmed have been informed.
Hamas has yet to confirm or reject the IDF report. Further, the Islamist terror organization has a history of reporting hostages killed in captivity as having been hit by Israeli airstrikes
END
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH //ISRAEL
Looks like they will open up a second front. This could be very devastating to both sides.
Israel may have to nuke Lebanon
((Jerusalem Post)
Lebanon rejects proposal for Hezbollah withdrawal from Israeli border – report
The statement by the Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib came in advance of a visit today by French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, following his stop in Israel on Sunday.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFFEBRUARY 6, 2024 14:14Updated: FEBRUARY 6, 2024 15:50
Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral of Wissam Tawil, a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces in Lebanon, January 9, 2024(photo credit: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib rejected an international proposal for Hezbollah to withdraw away from Israel’s northern border to behind the Litani River, as set out under United Nations Security Council 1701.
His statement was carried by the Arabic language newspaper Al-Watan in advance of a visit today by French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, following his stop in Israel on Sunday.
This formula of a Hezbollah withdrawal eight to ten kilometers from the Israeli border was “rejected by Lebanon, which will not accept half-solutions that do not bring the desired peace and do not secure stability,’ Bou Habib told Al-Watan.
He demanded the full implementation of Resolution 1701, which included resolutions to points of geographical dispute between Israel and Lebanon, such as in the area of Sheba Farm area and the village Ghajar, explaining that no partial solutions were possible when it came to Resolution 1701, which set out the ceasefire terms that ended the second Lebanon War.
That resolution forbids the presence of a non-state actor, such as the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, in the area between the Litani River and Israel’s border.
Smoke rises during an exchange of fire between the IDF and terrorists from the Hezbollah organization on the border between Israel and Lebanon, January 8, 2024. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
Israel prefers a diplomatic solution
US special envoy Amos Hochstein, who last year spoke of the possibility of resolving the territorial dispute between the two countries, was in Israel on Sunday but, according to unconfirmed media reports, did not travel on to Lebanon. While in Israel, he met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz, who previously held that post.
Bou Habib’s statement comes amid an uptake in violence along the northern border and increased internal domestic pressure from Israeli evacuees in that area for a resolution to the crisis that would allow them to return home.Advertisement
Israeli officials have said that they prefer a diplomatic solution but would not hesitate to open a second front to forcibly force revue Hezbollah from the border.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli citizens would only be secure when Hamas in Gaza was removed from the southern border and Hezbollah from the northern one. “We will not stop the war without achieving this goal of total victory, which will restore security to both the south and the north.”
Terrorists from the village of Jalbun shot at a house in the kibbutz of Merav in northern Israel. The security forces shot at the source and began chasing the attackers, Kan News reported on Tuesday.
The house was reportedly damaged.
END
USA/ISRAEL
Which side is he on?
Biden threatens veto of US House’s standalone Israel aid bill
The Republican-majority House passed an Israel-only bill in November, but it was never taken up in the Democratic-led Senate.
By REUTERSFEBRUARY 6, 2024 01:49Updated: FEBRUARY 6, 2024 02:4
US President Joe Biden holds a press conference about his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Woodside, California, US, November 15, 2023.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
US President Joe Biden’s administration said on Monday he would veto a standalone bill backed by House of Representatives Republicans that would provide aid to Israel, as it backs a broader bill providing assistance to Ukraine and Israel and providing new funds for border security.
“The Administration strongly encourages both chambers of the Congress to reject this political ploy and instead quickly send the bipartisan Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act to the President’s desk,” the Office of Management and Budget said in a statement.
Officials from the Democratic president‘s administration have been working for months with Senate Democrats and Republicans on legislation unveiled on Sunday combining billions of dollars in emergency aid for Ukraine, Israel and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, with an overhaul of US immigration policy.
The $118 billion spending measure also would provide humanitarian assistance to civilians affected by global conflicts.
Biden administration calls the bill a ‘ploy’
“The Administration strongly opposes this ploy which does nothing to secure the border, does nothing to help the people of Ukraine defend themselves against Putin’s aggression, fails to support the security of American synagogues, mosques, and vulnerable places of worship, and denies humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, the majority of whom are women and children,” the statement said.
Members of the 118th Congress raise their right hands as they are sworn into office to serve in the US House of Representatives on the fourth day of Congress at the US Capitol in Washington, US, January 7, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/JON CHERRY)
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Saturday that the House would reject the bipartisan Senate bill, and instead vote this week on a measure providing aid only to Israel.
Republicans are bitterly divided over the legislation, with Donald Trump – the frontrunner for his party’s presidential nomination – and his closest allies loudly voicing opposition, calling the Senate plan insufficiently tough.
Trump has made security at the border with Mexico a major talking point in his campaigning against Biden ahead of the November election.
The Republican-majority House passed an Israel-only bill in November, but it was never taken up in the Democratic-led Senate, as negotiators worked on Biden’s request for Congress to approve a broader emergency security package.
END
END
HOUTHIS/THE WEST
It continues until Biden strikes Iran
(zerohedge)
Houthi Rebels Fire Missiles At Two Ships As Red Sea Crisis Rages On
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeted two commercial ships sailing in the southern Red Sea following airstrikes by the United States and the United Kingdom on dozens of locations across Yemen, Iraq, and Syria over the weekend. This escalation around the maritime chokepoint has led to a blockade of ships, marking a new round of cost-push inflation due to snarled supply chains.
Reuters quoted a Houthi spokesman who said anti-ship missiles were fired at the Morning Tide and Star Nasia, flying Barbados- and Marshall Islands flags, respectively, as British and American.
British maritime security firm Ambrey said Morning Tide suffered damage from a suicide drone while sailing southeast through the Red Sea. No injuries were reported.
The owner of the Morning Tide told Reuters the vessel was sailing “without problems” but declined to give further information.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported after midnight GMT that a projectile was fired at the port side of a ship located 57 nautical miles west of Hodeidah. The ship’s bridge suffered minor damage. It noted all crew were safe.
Since December, the shipping industry has been on high alert through the Red Sea.
Bloomberg said, “The most significant incident so far was an attack on an oil tanker carrying Russian fuel that saw it catch fire, highlighting the risk of environmental disaster.”
Wall Street analysts have warned clients in recent weeks about the worsening supply chain mess due to the Red Sea crisis.
Two weeks ago, MUFG bank warned clients that “higher friction geopolitics” jeopardizes maritime chokepoints.
The continued attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels is yet another sign President Biden’s Operation Prosperity Guardian mission to shield the commercial shipping industry from attacks is failing.
Cash uncovered by IDF troops in a Hamas tunnel in the Gaza Strip, in footage released by the IDF on February 6, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has uncovered documents and other materials from a tunnel in the Gaza Strip, indicating Hamas’s direct links and coordination with Iran.
“We found official documents of Hamas from 2020, including the details of the funds transferred from Iran to Hamas and [Yahya] Sinwar, between 2014 and 2020. More than 150 million dollars were transferred from Iran to Hamas,” he says.
“This is another example of how Iran exports terror across the Middle East. This is a global problem,” Hagari says.
He says the intelligence information is given to Israel’s allies to be verified.
Hagari says that in the same underground complex, troops located a safe and additional bags containing more than NIS 20 million ($5.5 million) in cash.
He says that troops have found millions more dollars in Hamas sites across the Gaza Strip.
In images released by the IDF, several envelopes of cash are addressed to Sinwar.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
special thanks to Milan S for bringing this to us:
Watch “Richard Wolff on How Russia Destroyed NATO’s Economic War and changed Europe FOREVER” on YouTube
Long-Term Increased Risk of Digestive Diseases After COVID-19 Infection: Study
A new study suggests people who have recovered from COVID-19—even if they had mild cases—are at risk of future digestive diseases.
(UGREEN3S/Shutterstock)
As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, an increasing number of people are experiencing digestive diseases. Recent research has revealed that COVID-19 infection increases the long-term risk of digestive diseases, with a notable rise even in mild cases.
A large-scale retrospective cohort study published in the BMC Medicine journal on Jan. 10, 2024, indicated that individuals previously infected with COVID-19 have a higher risk of developing digestive diseases.
The researchers included data on over 840,000 people from the UK Biobank database, categorizing them into groups: those who had been infected with COVID-19, a control group without infection during the same period, and a pre-pandemic control group using data from 2017 to 2019.
The results revealed that people who had previously been infected with COVID-19 faced a higher risk of digestive diseases compared to those who had not been diagnosed with COVID-19 during the same period. This included a 38 percent increase in the risk of gastrointestinal dysfunction, a 23 percent increase in the risk of peptic ulcer disease, a 41 percent increase in the risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), a 21 percent increase in the risk of gallbladder disease, a 35 percent increase in the risk of severe liver disease, a 27 percent increase in the risk of nonalcoholic liver disease, and a 36 percent increase in the risk of pancreatic disease.
Additionally, the risk of GERD exhibited a stepwise increase with the severity of COVID-19 symptoms. Even one year after infection, the risks of GERD and gastrointestinal dysfunction continued to rise, with increases of 64 percent and 35 percent, respectively.
The researchers also conducted a subgroup analysis of the risk of digestive diseases among individuals with a single infection and those with a reinfection of COVID-19. The results revealed that, compared to the noninfected population, the group with reinfections had about a 440 percent increased risk of pancreatic diseases, while the group with a single infection faced a 44 percent increased risk.
The study also found that even in mild cases without hospitalization, the risks of gastrointestinal dysfunction, peptic ulcer disease, GERD, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease were evident.
Even Those Who Had Mild Cases Are at Risk
The study emphasized that mild infections constitute over 95 percent of COVID-19 cases. While individuals with mild symptoms face a lower risk of digestive diseases than those with severe symptoms, the sheer number of infected individuals means that even a slight increase in the incidence rate of digestive diseases can lead to a significant rise in overall cases. This underscores the importance of preparedness in the health care system to handle the potential increase in cases.
The mechanisms underlying the association between COVID-19 infection and digestive diseases are not fully understood. However, the study proposed several possibilities, one of which is that the virus may be transmitted through the fecal-oral route, leading to digestive tract infections. Following the acute phase, this often leads to the development of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), resulting in long-term functional gastrointestinal disorders.
Furthermore, the interaction between the spike protein of the COVID-19 virus and the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors in the digestive tract may also be associated with the progression of digestive diseases in COVID-19 patients. ACE2 plays a crucial role in the process of viral infection, and the epithelium of the digestive tract has a higher concentration of ACE2 than that in the lungs, making it more susceptible to COVID-19 infection. ACE2 is also present in the biliary tract and pancreas, which could contribute to the increased likelihood of gallbladder and pancreatic diseases following COVID-19 infection.
Another recent study, based on a cohort of over 11.4 million individuals from the National Healthcare Database of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, found that patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 face an increased risk of gastrointestinal diseases. Notably, the risk was higher compared to patients hospitalized for seasonal influenza. The study was published in Nature Communications in March 2023.
The study indicated that individuals, one month after being infected with COVID-19, experienced an increased risk of GERD by 35 percent, peptic ulcer disease by 62 percent, acute pancreatitis by 46 percent, functional dyspepsia by 36 percent, acute gastritis by 47 percent, IBS by 54 percent, and cholangitis (inflammation of the bile duct) by 102 percent.
Regarding specific gastrointestinal symptoms, there was a 60 percent increased risk of constipation, a 44 percent increased risk of abdominal pain, a 58 percent increased risk of diarrhea, a 52 percent increased risk of vomiting, and a 46 percent increased risk of bloating.
Alleviating Long COVID With Gut Microbiome Formula
To alleviate the digestive system sequelae induced by COVID-19, researchers involved in a new study developed a gut microbiome formula. By addressing imbalances in the gut microbiome, this formula effectively mitigates the lingering symptoms in various systems and organs of COVID-19 patients. The clinical trial was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases in December 2023.
The research team discovered that patients with long COVID exhibit a highly distinctive imbalance in their gut microbiome, which is likely a major contributing factor to the lingering effects of COVID-19.
Four hundred and sixty-three long-COVID patients were randomly assigned into two groups: One group received a probiotic formula, SIM01, and the other received vitamin C as a placebo for six months.
The probiotic formula is a micro-encapsulated lyophilized powder containing three strains of beneficial bacteria: Bifidobacterium adolescentis, Bifidobacterium bifidum, and Bifidobacterium longum. It also includes prebiotics that promote the growth of probiotics, such as galacto-oligosaccharides, xylo-oligosaccharides, and resistant dextrin.
The results indicated a significant improvement in long-COVID symptoms among patients in the probiotic formula group, including fatigue, memory loss, difficulty concentrating, gastrointestinal upset, and general unwellness. Moreover, compared to the placebo group, the probiotic formula group showed a greater improvement in symptoms such as joint pain, inability to exercise, shortness of breath, insomnia, muscle pain, coughing, hair loss, chest pain, and mood disturbance, although not particularly significant.
In addition to clinical symptom assessments, the research team analyzed the gut microbiome after six months of probiotic intake. They discovered that, compared to both the pre-intervention state and the placebo group, the probiotic formula group showed a significant increase in the abundance and diversity of beneficial gut bacteria, alongside a reduction in harmful bacteria. This highlights the effectiveness of the probiotic formula in regulating the gut microbiome.
Dr. Francis K.L. Chan, a study author and the dean of medicine and director of the Centre for Gut Microbiota Research at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, stressed that maintaining a balanced gut microbiome is crucial in preventing infectious diseases and their associated sequelae. He urged the public to recognize the importance of gut microbiome health as a means to reduce the risk of infections and the occurrence of postinfection symptoms.
GLOBAL ISSUES
South Korea EV Sales Held Back by Drivers’ Fears Of Battery Fires
South Korea’s electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by 0.1% last year for the first annual decline since 2017, as drivers cite fears of batteries catching fire and insufficient number of chargers as key obstacles alongside higher interest rates and high prices.
South Korean drivers are concerned that their future EVs could catch fire while charging or in a car crash, according to a November survey by the Korea Transportation Safety Authority quoted by Bloomberg on Monday.
In 2020 and 2021, several high-profile cases of EVs catching fire were reported in South Korea. Three years ago, an electric bus manufactured by Hyundai Motor caught fire while in use.
A few months earlier, Hyundai Motor recalled more than 77,000 Kona EVs sold globally after 13 of the electric crossover vehicles caught fire. Hyundai and its battery supplier LG Chem were at odds over the reasons for the recall, with the battery cell maker saying it wasn’t its battery that was the culprit.
Another key reason for lower EV sales and increased hesitancy among South Korean drivers to switch to zero-emission vehicles has been a lack of enough charging points.
Concerns about vehicles catching fire during charging in closed-space underground parking lots of high-rise apartment buildings have deterred Koreans to consider switching from a gasoline-fueled car to an EV.
So EV sales declined by 0.1% to 157,823 units in 2023, the first drop in six years, per data from the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (KAMA) cited by Bloomberg.
The relatively higher prices of EVs compared to conventional passenger cars and the rising interest rates have also contributed to the decline.
Globally, price affordability, anxiety over battery range, a lack of a widespread network of charging points, and higher insurance costs are the key reasons for consumers to think twice before buying an electric vehicle.
In November, a group of U.S. car dealers warned the Biden Administration that most U.S. car buyers aren’t interested in purchasing EVs, incentives or not.
Thalia reveals she is ‘traumatized’ after being diagnosed with complicated health symptoms
January 31, 2024
Thalia might not be able to taste the delicious flavors of Mexican food as she was recently diagnosed with Dysgeusia, a distortion of the sense of taste. The singer and actress took to social media to share her concern about this rare and complicated health diagnosis. “I am traumatized, they [doctors] have just confirmed that I have Dysgeusia. It is an alteration of taste with a constant taste of salt, of metal 24/7 and I can’t stop feeling it. What do I do?” she explained distressedly. The telenovela icon said she is so depressed with her situation that to reduce the symptoms; she tries to “drink water with lemon, things with vinegar, and eat things with a lot of salt.” “It’s strange because my sense of smell is perfect,” she reveals. “I can smell everything; When I eat, everything tastes good to me, but after I stop eating, I have this constant taste in my mouth 24/7,” she said. According to Thalia, she has been dealing with this situation since the end of last year but kept it quiet because she thought that it was only a temporary illness. Dysgeusia is associated with ageusia, the complete lack of taste, and hypogeusia, a decrease in taste sensitivity. According to experts, a diagnosis is usually complicated since the sense of taste is tied together with other sensory systems. Common causes of Dysgeusia include chemotherapy, asthma treatments, zinc deficiency, Liver disease, hypothyroidism, and more.
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What is optic neuritis, a disease that Felipe Simas was diagnosed with?
January 27, 2024
The actor Felipe Simas was rushed to hospital on Thursday (26th). The artist revealed that he had been diagnosed with an autoimmune disease called optic neuritis in a message on his own social network. Mariana Uhlmann, wife of Felipe Simas, shared on her social networks details about the actor’s hospitalization: “On Sunday, upon returning from work, he noticed that his right vision had a different shade,” she reported. Felipe Simas continued: “With a distinct and blurred coloration in the center of the vision.” The next day, the actor sought the assistance of an ophthalmologist, who, faced with suspicion of optic neuritis, urgently recommended a brain MRI. After performing the imaging examination, the diagnosis of neuritis was confirmed. Optic neuritis is sometimes the first sign of multiple sclerosis.
Minister of Indigenous Peoples Sonia Guajajara is ill and admitted to hospital for exams
January 27, 2024
The Minister of Indigenous Peoples, Sonia Guajajara (49), fell ill during a meeting in Brasilia on Thursday, and was admitted on Friday to the Heart Institute of the University of São Paulo. She was in a workshop held at the Ministry of the Environment when she needed emergency medical care. In the hospital, Sonia will undergo examinations. According to a statement, Sonia is “in the process of recovery and is well”. The doctors recommended a hospital stay in São Paulo to perform a battery of tests. “The goal is to ensure that her health is fully established,” the statement said.
Claudio Echeverri scared everyone at the U23: “I got a very strong chest pain”
January 31, 2024
It was not all happiness in the Argentine Under-23 ‘s 5-0 win against Chile. In the first half, Claudio “el Diablito” Echeverri [18] ended up lying on the ground and raised some alarm. The youth had to be taken off the field of play on a stretcher and was assisted on the side by doctors. There was no evidence of muscle pain nor had he been the victim of a foul. What happened to “the Little Devil”? After the match, Claudio Echeverri himself explained what happened to him and why he must be treated: “In the match I got a very strong chest pain. I couldn’t change the air, I couldn’t breathe very well. I got really scared, I threw myself down and stayed for a while so I could breathe. Then, thank God, I got a bit better…but just in case I’m going to talk to the doctors to see what it is because something like this had never happened to me and I felt very afraid. I’m fine now,” said the millionaire player.
Stefan Strandberg retires after blood clot: a big shock
January 30, 2024
This is stated in a press release from Vålerenga Football Elite. The club writes that Strandberg shortly before Christmas was operated on for prolapse in his back, and that he was scheduled to start training in early February. After the operation, a complication occurred that led to a life-threatening blood clot in the entire left leg and up in the abdomen. Strandberg therefore had to undergo an extensive emergency operation in mid-January. “I’ve played football every day since I learned to walk and I wasn’t ready to give up. Now everything is taken from me. My football career is over. I was ready to fight for the national team and this is a big shock. Right now I’m just happy to be alive, but need time to let it all sink in”, says Strandberg.
Illness during Grande Fratello [Italian Reality Show, Big Brother], an ambulance was called to rescue Giuseppe Garibaldi
February 2, 2024
Moments of extreme excitement for the competitors of Big Brother who had to deal with a sudden event. Giuseppe Garibaldi had an illness, such that it was necessary to call the ambulance. It is not clear what happened to him, but rescue arrived in a short time and took away the thirty-year-old.
Poet Suffers Heart Attack, Collapses On Stage While Reciting Poetry During Event In Uttarakhand’s Pantnagar
January 29, 2024
Pantnagar – A shocking video has surfaced on the internet in which a poet suffered heart attack and collapsed on stage while reciting poetry in Uttarakhand’s Pantnagar. The poet was reciting poetry at the Pantnagar Kavya Mahotsav which was organised in Pantnagar. The incident was caught on camera and the video of the incident is doing rounds on social media and it can be seen in the video that the elderly man is reciting poetry on stage in front of huge crowd inside an auditorium of a university. The man suddenly collapsed on stage during the program and fell on another man who was sitting behind him on the stage. The incident occurred on Sunday (January 28) at the G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology in Uttarakhand’s Udham Singh Nagar. There are reports that the man was rushed to a hospital nearby and his health status in not ascertained yet. The incidents of people losing their lives due to heart attacks are on the rise in the country.
Bengali singer and ex-MP Kabir Suman hospitalised after heart attack
January 29, 2024
Popular Bengali singer and former Trinamul Congress MP Kabir Suman was hospitalised on Monday afternoon after he complained of chest pain, an official of the medical facility said. The health condition of Suman, who was admitted to the ICU of the Calcutta Medical College and Hospital, is critical, he said. “He seems to have suffered a heart attack. We are constantly monitoring his health parameters,” a doctor treating him told PTI. A medical board has also been formed for his treatment, the official said.
Cheatle to miss rest of season, WPL after skin cancer procedure
January 31, 2024
Australia left-arm seamer Lauren Cheatle has been ruled out of the rest of the domestic season and the WPL after undergoing a medical procedureforskin cancer on her neck. Cheatle underwent the procedure on Wednesday. She had previously undergone treatment for skin cancer in 2021. She had been signed by Gujarat Giants for this season’s WPL which begins on February 23 but will now miss the tournament as well as the rest of the WNCL season for New South Wales.
Hastings District councillor Ann Redstone resigns after Parkinson’s diagnosis
February 1, 2024
Hastings District councillor Ann Redstone has stepped down from council after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. The councillor from the Heretaunga ward posted the news to social media on Friday, stating it was her last day. She told Hawke’s Bay Today she was diagnosed with Parkinson’s about a year ago and while she was still okay, she was starting to feel the impact and wanted to leave before she wasn’t okay.
for money raising & fame…I am sorry but Ladapo must distance himself from the lackies now, he is losing credibility, he is brilliant & upstanding, “Florida Covid Grand Jury Investigation Is a Joke”
BOOM! Love Sasha for this, guts, but she is right! To go and stroke each other…some ask me why I did not attend as I was PRIOR, at these shows, but that was until I went to war on the fraud and con of stepstool Maloney, when I started to return fire whenever he attacked me in media, on Twitter etc. and now, well, I am just stating the facts, well, once that happened, I became persona non grata…and I loved it….yet the bunch of them talk just tautological bullshit…using our science which is funny by itself.
These folk run gatherings here, its a get together, a love fest…to raise money, stroke each other, same media Freedom Fighter ones too…oh God, I am so ashamed I touched this in the beginning, so ashamed. You know, Senator Ron Johnson is a good man, honest, principled, God fearing, decent, wants to know the truth….he is kind of mislead by some of this crap…I know him well, he should distance himself from these moma breast milk teat suckers, they can’t get enough milk, so word to Sen Johnson, someone I admire greatly, when next they ask you for a dog and pony using the sacred Senate, tell them have it on the Horseman from Alcatraz’s ranch.
‘Florida Covid Grand Jury Investigation Is a Joke
It was a political stunt for the DeSantis failed presidential run
Over “Elected” Governments & Public Health Bodies, Forging a Global Vaccine Regime”; excellent reading, support; truth is, the entire narrative dead, COVID was all a fraud, issue now is punishment
by The Exposé The same organisations that have an interest in vaccinations today also had a lot of influence in laying the groundwork decades ago. People tend to think of these large and well-known organisations – such as the Rockefeller Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UNICEF; CDC, GAVI, USAID, and the World Bank – as independent of each ot…
The same organisations that have an interest in vaccinations today also had a lot of influence in laying the groundwork decades ago. People tend to think of these large and well-known organisations – such as the Rockefeller Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UNICEF; CDC, GAVI, USAID, and the World Bank – as independent of each other, but they are not. They are part of a vaccine infrastructure – a global vaccine regime. Or, as Nations in Action describes it, the vaccine shadow government architecture. end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0729 UP .0012
USA/ YEN 148.71 UP .045 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2546 UP .0013
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3539 DOWN .0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 87.30 PTS OR 3.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 626.86 PTS OR 4.04%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.59% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN (EXCEPT GERMANY)
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 626.86 PTS OR 4.04%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 87.31 PTS OR 3.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.59%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 193.50 OR 0.53%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2026.25
silver:$22.29
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 104.39 UP 7 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1913
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1998)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.719…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 12 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.103% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.298 DOWN 5 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.416 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 68.15 PTS OR 0.90%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 129.18 PTS OR 0.76%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 49.08 PTS OR 0.65%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 61.70 PTS OR 0.62%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 163.96 PTS OR 0.53%
WTI Oil price 73.59 12: EST
Brent Oil: 78.91 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.22; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 64//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2895 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.986 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0753 UP .0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2597 UP .0064 or 64 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 43.975 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.717%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.87 DOWN 0.797//YEN UP 80 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3488 DOWN .0056 CDN dollar DOWN56 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.47
Brent OIL: 78.65
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.085%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 4.289%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 7 PTS AT 4.399%
USA dollar index: 104.03 DOWN 28 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.56 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.67 DOWN 0 AND 45/100 roubles
GOLD 2035.60 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.42 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 141.23 PTS OR 0.37%
NASDAQ DOWN 40.30 PTS OR 0.123%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13,18 DOWN .49 PTS OR 3.58%
GLD: $188,55 UP 0.98 OR 0.552%
SLV/ $20.51 .UP .04 OR 0.20%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bank Blow-Up ‘Butterflies’ Spark Bid For Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 04:00 PM
No major macro today but more jawboning overnight from Beijing sparked some global gains in stocks.
China Small Caps were up 7% (but put in context, not so impressive)…
However, today’s biggest newsmakers was FedSpeak, Yellen yellin’, and bank blow-ups…
Take your pick:
The Good: KASHKARI: 3M, 6M INFLATION RATES ‘BASICALLY THERE’ AT 2%; WE DO NOT THINK ABOUT POLITICS NOR UPCOMING ELECTION
Bad: MESTER: EXPECT FED TO GAIN CONFIDENCE TO CUT ‘LATER THIS YEAR’, DON’T FEEL THERE’S ANY NEED TO RUSH RATE CUTS, NO URGENCY TO SLOW PACE OF BALANCE-SHEET REDUCTION NOW
Ugly: YELLEN SAYS INCENTIVES TO MOVE AWAY FROM DOLLAR EXIST, NATURAL SANCTIONED COUNTRIES TRY WORKAROUNDS ON DOLLAR; BUT UNAWARE OF ANY DEEP THREAT TO THE DOLLAR
But ugliest of all was the regional banking system.
The KBW Regional Banking Index is down 15% from its December highs (which had basically run all the way back up to the pre-SVB levels) but down 12% in the last 5 days…
Source: Bloomberg
A few desks claimed that NYCB is ‘idiosyncratic‘…
*NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP SINKS 22% TO HIT LOWEST SINCE 1997
…but to be frank, that’s just bullshit. It just happens to be the first domino to fall…
Source: Bloomberg
With bank bewilderment building, traders bid for bonds (with the short-end outperforming 2Y -8bps, 30Y -5bps). However, yields are still higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Bullion was also bid, with spot gold prices testing $2040…
Source: Bloomberg
And so was black gold, with WTI back above $73…
Source: Bloomberg
And crypto was bid.
Yesterday saw the 7th straight day of net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs…
Source: Bloomberg
…and Bitcoin rallied today, but only modestly and within its recent range…
Source: Bloomberg
…but Ethereum surged up to $2375…
Source: Bloomberg
…with the ETHBTC pair rallying back above FOMC spike highs to two-week highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Big-tech actually had a down-day today (but rates were lower…). Small Caps were best (Short squeeze) and The Dow and S&P managed gains with a late-day surge…
MAG7 stocks drifted lower today…
Source: Bloomberg
After topping 85 (RSI) on the ‘overbought scale last night, NVDA dared actually decline today (but not before it topped $700 overnight)…
But ‘most shorted’ stocks were squeezed hard from get-go (supporting small caps despite the bank bloodbath)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, Small banks are proper fucked without The Fed’s (soon to be killed) BTFP bailout facility (red line)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and one can’t help but notice the burgeoning balance sheet of the big banks – willing to scoop up small banks with the FDIC’s help?
“We looked at the larger banks’ balance sheets, and it appears to be a manageable problem. There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged.
…
There will be expected losses.
It’s a sizable problem… it doesn’t appear to have the makings of the kind of crisis things that we’ve seen sometimes in the past.
I don’t think there’s much risk of a repeat of 2008. I also think, you know, we need to be careful about making proclamations about the.. future.
…
There will be certainly be some banks that have to be closed or merged out of, out of existence because of this. That’ll be smaller banks, I suspect, for the most part.
You know, these are losses. It’s a secular change in the use of downtown real estate. And the result will be losses for the owners and for the lenders, but it should be manageable.”
Do you feel lucky, punk? Picking the right regional bank that will be bought before it’s closed under FDIC?
MORNING TRADING//
end
II USA DATA
Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says
TUE, FEB 6 202411:00 AM EST
Jeff Cox
CNBC
KEY POINTS
*Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Fed reported Tuesday.
*Total debt rose by $212 billion in the quarter, a 1.2% increase quarterly and about 3.6% from a year ago.
Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
Debt that has transitioned into “serious delinquency,” or 90 days or more past due, increased across multiple categories during the year, but none more so than credit cards.
With a total of $1.13 trillion in debt, credit card debt that moved into serious delinquency amounted to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, a 59% jump from just over 4% at the end of 2022, the New York Fed reported. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said.
Delinquencies also rose in mortgages, auto loans and the “other” category. Student loan delinquencies moved lower as did home equity lines of credit. Overall, 1.42% of debt was 90 days or more past due, up from just over 1% at the end of 2022.
“Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.”
While delinquency levels are rising, the New York Fed researchers said total debt is moving higher about in line with the pace before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020.
Household debt rose by $212 billion in the quarter, a 1.2% increase quarterly and about 3.6% from a year ago. Credit card debt, however, jumped 14.5% from the same period in 2022. Auto debt increased to $1.61 trillion, up $12 billion on a quarterly basis and $55 billion annually, or 3.5%.
Borrowers have been hit by higher interest rates. In a tightening cycle that ran from March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Reserve hiked its short-term borrowing rate by 5.25 percentage points, taking the fed funds rate to its highest level in about 23 years. The benchmark rate feeds into most adjustable-rate consumer debt products.
Since the central bank began its tightening cycle, the typical rate on credit cards leaped from about 14.5% to 21.5%, according to Fed data. Credit card debt as a share of income is still below pre-pandemic levels.
Fed researchers said rising rates probably have played a role in delinquency rates. In the case of autos, for instance, they said payments have changed little even as prices have come down, owing to the elevated rate structure.
Student loan debt, an area of interest for Washington lawmakers, has increased little during the pandemic period, currently totaling just over $1.6 trillion. That was little change from the third quarter and it was up just 0.4% from a year ago. President Joe Biden has forgiven some $136.6 billion in student loan debt since taking office. The share of debt in serious delinquency edged lower to 0.8%.
Mortgage debt increased 2.8% in 2023, while the delinquency rate increased to 0.82%, up a quarter percentage point from the previous year.
-END-
TUCKER CARLSON..
Bombshell: Tucker Carlson’s Exclusive Interview with Vladimir Putin in Moscow – Full Transcript Released!
In a stunning turn of events, renowned journalist Tucker Carlson has embarked on a mission of historic proportions. With the fate of Ukraine and the world hanging in the balance, Carlson has arrived in Moscow, Russia, determined to interview none other than President Vladimir Putin. Can this audacious move be the key to ending the war in Ukraine and preventing the looming catastrophe of World War Three? Read on to delve into this gripping tale of courage, journalism, and the quest for peace.
Border Crisis: Democrats Are Trying To Run A Protection Racket On The American Public
MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 03:50 PM
It’s important for Americans to understand that the Democrat Party of today has abandoned all pretenses of traditional political engagement. Yes, there is a long history of brinksmanship in US politics, but we haven’t seen this level of thirst for internal conflict since the Civil War. Leftists have deliberately created an environment in which any opposition to their policies is labeled “insurrection” and a “threat to democracy.” They have adopted a zero tolerance mindset, justified in their own imaginations by a cult-like ideology of globalism and wokeness.
The way in which Democrats operate is highly reminiscent of communist regimes of the past. Honest debates about facts and logic are long gone. Their goal is to win at any cost, and winning means they become the de facto social and governmental arbiters of all they survey. Winning for them means the end of western civilization as we know it.
It’s clear that their strategy is to use crisis events as leverage to negotiate more power and influence. They tried this method during the covid lockdowns. They tried it with the January 6th protests. They do it every time there’s a debate over the debt ceiling. And now, they’re trying to find a way to exploit the border crisis they created.
In the past three years, Joe Biden has overseen the biggest explosion in mass illegal immigration in the history of the US. Trump era measures such as Title 42 slowed border encounters to a trickle, but Biden ended them all and offered greater incentives for illegals to trespass.
Democrats argue that the only reason there is a border threat is because Republicans refuse to accept the measures included in their immigration “reform” legislation. Pass the bill, they say, and all these problems go away.
As many conservatives have rightly pointed out, there’s no need for immigration reform or a new migrant bill – The laws that are already in place simply need to be enforced. But there is a more insidious tactic being applied that needs to be addressed; namely, that Democrats are trying to establish a precedent that border security is something to be “negotiated” through legislative chicanery.
What is it that Democrats want in exchange for a secure border? Well, they want an open border, of course.
Democrat immigration reform under discussion right now will allow up to 1.8 million illegals to enter the US every year (5000 migrants per day) under asylum and refugee status. In other words, 1.8 million migrants apprehended at the border will be released into the US by federal agencies. There are no provisions to end “catch and release” policies. This number doesn’t include the millions of “gotaways” that avoid detection every year.
The legislation is also designed to fast track amnesty for millions of illegals already in the US, and it continues to increase access to subsidies and welfare programs for non-citizens. Reform does nothing to solve the basic problem of incentives – In fact, it encourages a larger crisis over time when foreigners realize a certain measure of illegal immigration is now codified into law.
Leftists are setting the precedent that conservatives will have to sacrifice certain hard line stances to get the security they call for. In this way they are suggesting that border security is a negotiable matter. It shouldn’t be.
“Want a secure border? Better give us 1.8 million new illegals per year. Better than 3 million a year, right?”
“Want a secure border? Better give us fast track amnesty for the millions of illegals already in the US so we can secure a voting super-majority.”
“Want a secure border? Stop interfering with our plans for a perpetual proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Give us our billions or the floodgates stay open.”
It’s very similar to a protection racket run by the mob: “Nice country. It would be a shame if something bad happened to it. Don’t worry, give us what we want and we’ll make sure you stay safe…”
There is no need for immigration reform. There is no need for new legislation. There is no need for a bipartisan bill. There is no need for negotiation. The state of Texas has already shown us what needs to be done, and with over 1200 miles of southern border they’re going to need help.
If Democrats are really interested in stopping mass illegal immigration, they should help southern states build border fencing with components like razor wire, as Texas is doing. They should end welfare incentives which 60% of illegals take as soon as they enter the country (illegal immigrants cost American taxpayers over $180 billion per year in welfare, and they only pay around $30 billion in taxes). They should end catch and release policies and asylum. And sanctuary cities should admit they were wrong and stop preventing immigration agencies from doing their job.
So far, the Dems have shown no interest in supporting any of these measures. In fact, they have done everything in their power to obstruct such measures from being implemented.
Stopping this invasion is not difficult at all when you remove Democrat interference from the equation. Let’s be honest, they are the real threat to the country. Illegal immigration is only a symptom of a greater disease.
END
What will the Supreme Court rule?
a good read.
(zerohedge)
Why All Of America Could See A San Francisco-Style Homeless Crisis
The homeless crisis in America is set to come to a head with a Supreme Court ruling as early as this spring, in the case of Johnson v. City of Grants Pass, Oregon.
The Supreme Court could—depending on what it decides—force changes in city ordinances and homeless policies across the country.
The decision is one of the most anticipated in years for San Francisco and other cities facing legal challenges from homeless people and advocacy groups.
At the heart of the case is the challenge by three homeless people to ordinances in the Oregon town of Grants Pass that prohibit homeless people “from using a blanket, pillow, or cardboard box for protection from the elements.”
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, drawing on logic applied in the 2018 decision in Martin v. City of Boise, sided with the plaintiffs and blocked Grants Pass from enforcing its ordinance in the absence of shelters or other accommodations for the homeless.
The decision applies across nine western states, Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.
Officials are left with two unappealing choices: let the sprawling encampments stand, or provide immediate emergency housing far beyond what their strained budgets allow for.
The Supreme Court, which announced on Jan. 11 that it will review the case, must either uphold or throw out the 9th Circuit’s ruling.
With close to 600,000 homeless people in America, according to recent Department of Housing and Urban Development figures, many cities that are bickering about what to do are paying attention to the case.
In Los Angeles, some 75,000 people live on the street, and the current mayor’s first action on taking office was to declare a homeless state of emergency.
In San Francisco, the crisis is so severe that residents are fleeing a city they have long cherished as one of the world’s most beautiful and livable locales, not to mention a dynamic tech hub. Nearly 8,000 people now live on the streets there.
Rampant public drug use, panhandling, urination, defecation, and other unruly conduct have taken over some areas of the City by the Bay and the city’s administration’s inability to enforce its own laws and clear out homeless encampments makes the crisis much worse.
“San Francisco is a mess, and even if it were to reduce its homeless population modestly, by a third, the streets would still look worse than most American cities,” Stephen Eide, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who studies homelessness and public policy, told The Epoch Times.
The city is a battleground for myriad legal, social, economic, and political forces amid rising public alarm about homelessness. Lawyers there want to press pause on their own court battle over an injunction forbidding the police from cracking down on homeless camps. In their view, the looming Supreme Court case will render other legal struggles moot.
Homelessness advocates insist that longstanding legal precedent guarantees rights to people living on the street, and the city is not free to disregard those rights and take away homeless people’s property without due process, just because some of the homeless commit more serious violations and spark a public outcry.
But others who have studied the issue find providing housing for ever-growing numbers of homeless to be an unsustainable burden.
A Protracted Battle
San Francisco’s impasse has its roots in a lawsuit that a local advocacy group, the Coalition on Homelessness, launched in September 2022 with the aid of the ACLU Foundation of Northern California, the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights of the San Francisco Bay Area, and the global law firm Latham & Watkins. Also named as plaintiffs in the suit were seven people who were, or had recently been, homeless.
One goal of the lawsuit was to stop the city from arresting and ticketing people who lived on the street, and clearing out their encampments—in short, to put an end to sweeps of homeless settlements and to put pressure on the administration to ramp up temporary housing for the undomiciled.
In a Dec. 23, 2022, ruling, Judge Donna Ryu of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California slapped the city with a preliminary injunction, denying it the power to enforce or threaten to enforce laws and ordinances that barred “involuntarily homeless individuals” from lying, sleeping, or sitting on public property.
Judge Ryu sided with the plaintiffs who believed that San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) actions had violated their Fourth Amendment right to be secure in their persons and possessions against unreasonable searches and seizures.
“Plaintiffs have presented significant evidence of a practice of seizing and destroying of homeless individuals’ unabandoned personal property in violation of the Fourth Amendment … and San Francisco’s own bag and tag policy, which clearly requires the City to store personal property so that homeless individuals may retrieve,” the judge wrote.
Lawyers for San Francisco unsuccessfully challenged Judge Ryu’s decision in federal court. In September 2023, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit shot down the city’s claim that Judge Ryu had overstepped legal bounds set in Martin v. Boise and Johnson v. Grants Pass.
On Jan. 11, another Ninth Circuit Court ruling clarified the definition of “involuntarily homeless” while substantially upholding the injunction.
Instead of appealing. San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu on Jan. 17 has filed a motion to essentially pause proceedings to wait for the Supreme Court decision on Grants Pass.
“It makes no sense to spend months litigating this case and expend enormous resources collecting evidence and expert testimony when the entire legal landscape may soon change,” Mr. Chiu said in a statement.
New York Community Bancorp Collapse Nears 27-Year-Lows After ‘Talks With Regulator’ Revealed
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 10:53 AM
“That’s a nice regional bank lender you got there… be a shame if anything happened to it…”
We have warned for months (here, here, and here most recently) – as regional bank shares soared back from SVB crisis lows – that this small bank balance sheet crisis was far from over… and worse still the ‘big banks’ have money to burn with excess reserves (to use, for example, to help the FDIC clean up some small bank issues)…
Last week we highlighted the dominoes had started falling in regionals, and the initial domino – New York Community Bancorp – is back in the cross-hairs as Bloomberg reports that, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, mounting pressure from a top US watchdog led to the bank’s surprise decision to slash its dividend and stockpile cash in case commercial real estate loans go bad.
The drastic actions – which prompted a collapse in the bank’s shares – followed behind-the-scenes conversations with officials from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the people said
Now, far be it from us to speculate but could a quiet call have been made to prompt regulators to suddenly pay attention?
Why now?
Everything was awesome, remember?
This all happened the week after The Fed officially killed its free-money ‘arb’ and confirmed the imminent death of its bank bailout facility… and as the Reverse Repo liquidity poll is draining fast.
And that has sent NYCB shares down 14% this morning, after falling 11% yesterday…
Which leaves it near its lowest levels since 1997…
…well below the lows reached during the SVB crisis (down 65% from the post-SVB crisis highs).
The bank’s chief risk officer Nicholas Munson and chief audit executive Meagan Belfinger both appear to have left the bank in recent months.
NYCB has said building reserves is part of its widely expected transition to more stringent capital rules after the lender swelled beyond $100 billion in assets while acquiring parts of Signature Bank last year.
We wonder if SVB 2.0 is about to hit (and prompt those Fed rate-cuts to be brought forward)?
Bonds are bid this morning, gold and crypto are rallying, and rate-cut odds are on the rise again.
END
$118B Ukraine Slush-Fund ‘Border’ Deal Dead In Senate Amid GOP Revolt
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 11:45 AM
The Senate’s $118 billion ‘border security’ deal – of which more than 2/3 sends money to Ukraine ($60B+) and Israel ($14.1B) – appears to be dead, after Senate Republicans have vowed to block a procedural motion.
The move means that there’s zero chance that the legislation will pass the Senate without major changes – while any revisions to the absurd asylum and border security reforms (which still allow 1.5 million illegals into the country per year, hobbles states like Texas by requiring legal challenges be arbitrated in DC courts, and funds NGOs who facilitate human trafficking to the tune of billions), could further cast the deal into disarray.
On Tuesday, Senate GOP Whip John Thune (SD) said that the motion to move forward with the bill won’t receive much, if any, Republican support.
“I think it’s unlikely because I just think our members are still — they want more time to evaluate it,” calling its near-term passage “unlikely,” and that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) decision to schedule a Wednesday vote was “rushing it.”
Lankford stands down
Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), the lead Republican negotiator on the deal, said on Monday evening that he has no idea whether a vote will proceed Wednesday (it won’t).
Speaking on the Senate floor Tuesday, the Democratic Senator said that “After months of good faith negotiations, after months of giving Republicans many of the things they asked for, Leader McConnell and the Republican conference are ready to kill the national security supplemental package, even with the border provisions they so fervently demanded.”
Schumer said he would be willing to delay the procedural vote until Thursday, but expressed doubts that it would make a difference (it won’t).
“We’ll even offer to delay that vote until some time Thursday to give even more time for senators to make up their minds. But I suspect they won’t accept even that offer because they really don’t want more time. They’re just using it as an excuse.”
On Monday, former President Donald Trump slammed the border bill and called for a ‘separate’ package that’s not tied to foreign aid.
“Only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill, which only gives Shutdown Authority after 5000 Encounters a day, when we already have the right to CLOSE THE BORDER NOW, which must be done,” he said on Truth Social.
“This Bill is a great gift to the Democrats, and a Death Wish for The Republican Party. It takes the HORRIBLE JOB the Democrats have done on Immigration and the Border, absolves them, and puts it all squarely on the shoulders of Republicans,” the former president continued. “Don’t be STUPID!!! We need a separate Border and Immigration bill. It should not be tied to foreign aid in any way, shape or form!“
END
This is huge: the SEC is now cracking down on basis trades and will now force hedge funds to register as dealers. This will without a doubt collapse treasury market liquidity. Remember also in March the Reverse Repo goes to zero and that will cause a huge rift in liquidity. The game is coming to an end.
(zerohedge)
SEC Cracks Down On Basis Trades, Will Force Top Hedge Funds To Register As Dealers, Resulting In Collapsing Treasury Market Liquidity
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 12:22 PM
After the latest Quarterly Refunding presentation by the TBAC dedicated a substantial portion of the prepared materials to the risk of a basis trade exploding, leading to catastrophic damage to the Treasury market, it should not come as a surprise that moments ago the SEC revealed that going forward hedge funds and prop trading firms that regularly trade US Treasuries – often with 20x leverage or more to greatly magnify moves as little as one basis point (here LTCM flashbacks should come flooding in)– are set to be labeled as dealers by the US regulator, a tag that will bring with it unwelcome scrutiny and attention not to mention greater compliance costs and scrutiny.
It’s also why demand for the basis trade, which has been so instrumental in allowing all the massive debt supply to be easily digested and remain liquid, may soon collapse leading to unexpected and jarring consequences to the Treasury complex just as US debt is growing by tens of billions every single day.
As Bloomberg reported first, on Tuesday the SEC – best known for being unable to keep its X account safe after voluntarily turning off 2FA and getting hacked one day before a historic bitcoin ETF announcement in what may be the most humiliating moment in the agency’s history – decided in a 3 to 2 vote to boost oversight of rates trading by the firms, which are increasingly responsible for liquidity in the world’s biggest government bond market but only because they use trillions in leverage. The new regulations would also apply to market participants in additional government bonds, equities and other securities.
With Liz Warren’s SEC lackey, Gary Gensler, having homed in on the Treasuries market and the private-funds industry as needing more guardrails, the Tuesday overhaul could force dozens of firms to register as dealers and face new regulations, something they are unlikely to do.
Since it was the catastrophic implosion of the basis trade – or rather the leverage the kept it viable – in Sept 2019 and again in March 2020 that sparked a panicked emergency reaction by the Fed, it is not a surprise that regulators had been looking for ways to glean more insight into the books of hedge funds that dabble in the trade.
Under the rules, dealers would include firms that buy and sell securities for their own account as part of the regular course of their business. the label also carries more oversight from the industry-backed Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
The new rules would apply to many trading firms that earn revenue from capturing bid-ask spreads, or those that express interest at or near the best available prices on both sides of the market for the same security. Those that manage $50 million or less in assets would be exempt, according to the commission. Of course, those firms are irrelevant, and the ones that do matter are the multistrat hedge funds which have allocated hundreds of billions in regulatory asset (really leverage) to arbing the Treasury cash-futures basis – hedge funds are long the underlying cash TSY and short the TSY future in one giant basis trade hence the name – and capitalizing on tiny mispricings.
Some of the hedge funds that are the most aggressive in basis trading are the who’s who of multi-strat and “pod” names such as Millennium, Citadel, Balyasny, Point73 and Exodus Point. As shown in the chart below, the top 5 names collectively sport over $1 trillion in regulatory assets, which represents 6.3x regulatory leverage on their underlying net assets!
It’s not just us warning that the violent unwind of the basis trade will be the basis for the next mega-crash…
… in its Jan 30 TBAC presentation warned that leverage across the basis trading hedge fund sector is surging and concluded that “relative-value trading strategies are the most likely driver of structural leveraged fund shorts in Treasury futures and propose some relevant relationships for Treasury to monitor on the Treasury futures basis trade.”
Some of the highlights from that presentation (full pdf below). starting with the recent dramatic changes in TSY future positioning by investor type, particularly asset managers (who are long futs) and leverage funds, or hedge funds (who are short):
Recently there have been large increases in both asset manager and leveraged fund positions in Treasury futures.
Since November 2021, asset managers (AM) have increased their net position from $100bn to over $700bn, while leveraged funds (LF) have moved from flat to short almost $800bn.(1)
When normalized by the size of the Treasury market in Figure 4, recent trends look similar. One interesting thing to note is the size of AM and LF positions is similar to 2019 peak (not larger).
In the 2006-2007 period, AM and LF relative positions were flipped. This change could indicate a structural evolution in the ecosystem and how different investors behave.
Some more details:
Most of the net position in futures is concentrated in shorter duration contracts (TU, FV, and TY) likely due to larger amounts of Treasuries outstanding in these maturity buckets.
Currently, these three contracts represent 80% of the net asset manager notional position and 55% of the net TY equivalent position.
The presentation then goes on to discuss some of the fundamentals in the basis trade (must read for anyone unfamiliar with the reasons why hedge funds are so drawn to it) and then turns its attention to the type of returns hedge funds generate in the TSY basis trade as well as the associated leverage. Here is where we find out that “indicatively”, the leverage involved is a whopping 20x, or in other words a mere 5% positional drawdown on the pair trade – which was saw repeatedly during the March 2020 covid shock – is enough to wipe out all the equity in the trade!
And what is even more terrifying is that TBAC’s quiet, tacit admission that “repo and futures margins do permit higher leverage“, which is why one can be certain that many hedge funds use that, or even higher leverage than 20x!
Why? Because as the TBAC points out in the very next sentence, “20x leverage could generate 9-10% annualized excess returns using this framework” which is great assuming nothing bad ever happens, but as LTCM will vouch and as events in March 2020 showed that’s never the case, and in fact…
March 2020 would have more than wiped out equity capital in such a strategy, explaining the stress during this period. To the extent these strategies live inside of multimanagers, other capital may have been injected during this period.
One final question: how big is the basis trade (after all we need some context to quantify the systematic risk). Well, the answer is nobody knows because the breakdown of how much regulatory capital is allocated to basis trades is secret, and is why the SEC is now demanding more clarity and will start treating basis traders as dealers.
According to the TBAC, recent research from the Fed suggests that the basis trade has grown in size lately, similar to levels seen in 2018-2019. They cite the futures data, but also show some evidence from the sponsored repo market and collateral posting data, shown below:
Another piece of research released in September of 2023 quantifies the basis trade at $550BN. The authors used data from form PF, and the size seems fairly consistent with size of futures exposure at the time.
Bottom line, the TBAC writes, “estimating size of relative-value AUM is hard especially as a large portion of capital pursuing these strategies may be embedded in multimanager hedge-funds, where little public data on sub-strategy allocations is available.”
Which explains why the SEC is now scrambling to figure out just how much capital is truly allocated to basis trades within multi-manager/multi-strat hedge funds, but based on our quick look at regulatory leverage, the actual amount allocated to basis is orders of magnitude greater than $550BN, more likely in the $2+ trillion ballpark across the entire global hedge fund industry.
And there you have it: all the basis trade is, is the latest manifestation of the “collecting pennies in front of a steamroller” trade, because when it works it generates 10% returns every year like clockwork, with the only gating factor being how much leverage a hedge fund has access to.
However, during a crisis, such as the Sept 2019 repo fiasco or the March 2020 crash, it all goes to hell… and the Fed rushes to bail out not just bank but hedge funds which are now so tightly interwoven in the financial fabric (via ultra loose and generous Prime Brokerage linkages) that central banks have no choice but to bail out everyone, including the billionaires who run the hedge funds that have put on trillions of basis trades on!
* * *
Understandably, the hedge fund industry had lobbied aggressively against the rules since they were proposed in 2022. Industry groups even went as far as calling the proposed requirements an “existential threat” to certain trading strategies as it would expose much more information on how much leverage hedge funds utilize, thus leaving them vulnerable to raids by their peers. They said the changes, if enacted, could spur firms to leave markets to avoid the additional costs.
And now the question is whether they were telling the truth, because if that is indeed the case, then the liquidity in the treasury market will evaporate just when it is most needed: when the US Treasury is adding trillions in gross debt every quarter to keep up with the Biden admin’s ravenous demands for fiscal stimulus.
That said, the SEC’s final plan eliminates some elements that drew the most ire from industry, such as a trigger for registration of $25 billion in monthly securities transactions, however most of the top names trade this threshold many times over. Still, it’s unclear whether the changes will be enough to stave off a legal challenge. The private-funds industry is already suing the SEC over other new regulations.
For its part, the SEC has maintained that registering is necessary because firms that make up such a large amount of Treasuries trading volume Bloomberg reports. The regulator said the plan will ensure that firms engaged in similar activities are regulated in a similar way as many firms active in the market are already labeled as dealers.
The rule, which was adopted after a close 3-2 vote, will go into effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Companies would have to comply with the registration requirements one year after that date. At that time, liquidity in the bond market may disappear.
The full must-read TBAC basis trade presentation is below (pdf link).
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Garbage!
Doctor Who Helped A Wounded Ashli Babbitt On Jan. 6 Sentenced To Probation
A California physician who gave medical aid to a dying Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, 2021, but was forced away from the scene by police has been sentenced to probation as part of a plea deal for his time at the U.S. Capitol.
Dr. Austin Brendlen Harris, 43, of Granada Hills, California, was sentenced on Feb. 2 by U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton to three years of probation and fined $5,000 for the petty misdemeanor charge of parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a Capitol building.
Federal prosecutors recommended that Judge Walton sentence Dr. Harris to 30 days in jail.
While Dr. Harris acknowledged his presence inside the Capitol broke the law, he said it at least gave him the opportunity to help a mortally wounded Ms. Babbitt, 35, an Air Force veteran from San Diego who was shot outside the Speaker’s Lobby at 2:44 p.m. on Jan. 6.
“He was not involved in that area or situation before he heard the shot, but when he saw her fall he did not hesitate,” defense attorney Scott Weinberg wrote in a four-page sentencing memorandum. “He ran toward her without thinking. As a physician who has worked in many significant trauma situations, this was second nature to him.
“He wanted to help to try to save her life,” Mr. Weinberg wrote. “Unfortunately just as her pulse faded and he was about to start CPR, he was prevented from acting further as law enforcement had to control the crowd and move protesters away from the situation, understandably so.”
The sentencing memo understated the role a Capitol Police bicycle officer played in preventing Dr. Harris from giving Ms. Babbitt further medical aid.
Dr. Harris was on his knees checking Ms. Babbitt’s upper chest wound when the officer reached down and grabbed him by the shoulders. The officer wrestled Dr. Harris away from Ms. Babbitt, grabbed him by the jacket, and shoved him down the hallway.
The visibly angry officer kept pushing Dr. Harris and the two struggled down the hallway. It’s impossible to hear what was said between the men because the crowd was yelling at the police.
Dr. Harris went back and asked the officer to retrieve his medical bag, which was still sitting next to Ms. Babbitt. The officer handed it back to him.
“If Dr. Harris had not been in one specific location within the building, he would not have had the opportunity to render aid to Ms. Ashli Babbitt after she was shot,” Mr. Weinberg wrote.
Tried to Prevent Rioting
Ms. Babbitt, who owned a pool cleaning business with her husband, traveled alone to Washington on Jan. 5 and attended President Donald J. Trump’s speech at the Ellipse on Jan. 6.
She walked to the Capitol along with tens of thousands of other protesters and entered the building through a window at 2:23 p.m., according to a detailed Epoch Times timeline first published on Jan. 5.
While DOJ investigative documents and persistent commentators on social media describe Ms. Babbitt as a rioter, a careful examination of scene video shows she tried to prevent the vandalism and violence that occurred near the Speaker’s Lobby.
In its sentencing memo seeking jail time for Dr. Harris, federal prosecutors cited his “encouragement to other rioters to participate in the attack” and that he compared “police officers defending the Capitol to Nazis.”
Prosecutors acknowledged that Dr. Harris accepted responsibility for running afoul of the law.
“The government has also considered the fact that Harris made clear his intention to accept responsibility for his actions at the time of his arrest and did so at the earliest opportunity,” prosecutors wrote.
The sentencing of Dr. Harris is the latest development in the death of Ms. Babbitt, who was shot and killed by Capitol Police Lt. Michael L. Byrd.
On Jan. 5, Judicial Watch Inc. filed a $30 million wrongful-death lawsuit on behalf of Ms. Babbitt’s husband, Aaron, and her estate. The federal suit was filed in U.S. District Court in San Diego, where the Babbitts lived and where Mr. Babbitt continues to reside.
The lawsuit alleges Mr. Byrd was negligent in use of his service weapon, lacked proper judgment, and had poor scene awareness when he fired a single shot as Ms. Babbitt climbed into a broken window leading into the Speaker’s Lobby. The suit called the shooting an “ambush murder.“
On Feb. 2, Judicial Watch announced a lawsuit against the DOJ, claiming the FBI is wrongfully withholding records related to Ms. Babbitt and Aaron Babbitt.
That federal suit, also filed in San Diego, says the FBI rejected Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and never provided records even after an appeal was filed with the DOJ. The lawsuit asks a judge to compel the FBI to release the records.
END
Trump Immunity Denied By DC Appeals Court In Election Case
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 10:35 AM
A three-judge panel for the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled on Tuesday that former President Trump does not have immunity from prosecution related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
“We have balanced former President Trump’s asserted interests in executive immunity against the vital public interests that favor allowing this prosecution to proceed,” the judges wrote in a 57-page opinion reported by CNBC. “We conclude that ‘[c]oncerns of public policy, especially as illuminated by our history and the structure of our government’ compel the rejection of his claim of immunity in this case,” the judges continue, upholding a trial judge’s previous ruling.
Special Counsel Jack Smith brought the election interference case against Trump in US District Court in Washington DC, where the chances of him receiving a fair trial are slim to none.
Trump is charged in the case with four counts of crimes including conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding. He has pleaded not guilty.
Defense lawyers, seeking to dismiss the case, had argued to Judge Tanya Chutkan that Trump has “absolute immunity” from prosecution because the charges relate to official acts performed while he was president.
After Chutkan declined to dismiss the charges, Trump’s attorneys brought the immunity argument to the appeals court. That move put the case on hold in Chutkan’s court. -CNBC
Trump’s legal team is expected to quickly ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision, in which the former president’s legal team put forth three separate immunity arguments “both as a categorical defense to federal criminal prosecutions of former Presidents and as applied to this case in particular.”
“For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant,” wrote the panel.
“But any executive immunity that may have protected him while he served as President no longer protects him against this prosecution.”
Donald Trump Jr. took to X to rail against the decision, posting: “If POTUS doesn’t have immunity they’ll be incapable of action for fear of future partisan reprisal. That endangers the United States and sets a terrible precedent. If this becomes the norm would a Trump DOJ prosecute Obama for droning an American? If not why not?”
Fani Fudged It: Homewrecking DA Lied About ‘Cohabitation’ — Rented Taxpayer-Funded ‘Safe House’ To Bang Nathan Wade According To Witness
TUESDAY, FEB 06, 2024 – 01:20 PM
The Fani Willis side show in Donald Trump’s Georgia election trial is the gift that keeps on giving.
After initially lying about her relationship with Nathan Wade, a prosecutor she paid $700,000 to help her ‘get Trump,’ Willis finally admitted to it – after Wade’s estranged wife began dropping receipts from their divorce proceeding.
New details alleged against Fulton County DA Fani Willis- Witnesses will testify she “cohabitated” with Nathan Wade (despite her denials) at her home The relationship began in 2019 – 3 years before Willis/Wade says it began, and before Wade’s 2021 appointment
“Witnesses will testify” that DA Willis and Wade cohabitated at an AirBNB “that was paid for by tax payer money” The “safe house” was also a romantic getaway!
·
That said, Willis lied again according to Joycelyn Wade’s legal team. While the Fulton County CA claimed that her relationship with Nathan Wade didn’t begin until after she paid him all that taxpayer money – despite the fact that Wade filed for divorce the day after he was hired.
According to a new filing, “witnesses will testify” that Wade “cohabitated with Ms. Willis at an AirBNB in Hapeville that was paid for by tax payer money” which served as a “safe house” for their relationship, which began in 2019 – three years before Willis and Wade said it began.
KING REPORT
The King Report February 6, 2024 Issue 7174
Independent View of the News
Chinese stocks cratered until 21:51 ET. Then, some entities aggressively bought stocks, which propelled stocks to sizable gains. The Shanghai Composite went from a 3.7% decline to a modest gain at 1:00 ET. Selling reappeared; the Shanghai Composite fell to a 1% loss before closing -0.79%. The Shenzhen Composite sank as much as 6.7% and closed (-3.04%) at its lowest price since February 15, 2019!
@Sino_Market: Margin trades are falling in China. The outstanding amount of margin debt balance in mainland bourses fell by 2% on Friday to 1.46 trillion yuan, its worst decline since June 2018.
@zerohedge: The supply-chain price spike is here: “Transportation impacts of the Suez Canal, due to unrest in the Red Sea and the issues at the Panama Canal are impacting both costs and schedules for the transport of global goods.” – ISM Respondent
USHs, which were already down sharply on Powell’s hawkish remarks on “60 Minutes”, sank on the shocking inflation in the January ISM Prices Paid component. USHs hit a daily low of 119 30/32 (-1 31/32) at 11:16 ET.
ESHs traded like bonds. They were moderately lower after Powell’s comments but traded sideways until they tanked after the inflationary Prices Paid component in the January ISM report appeared. ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 4937.75 (-52.50) at 10:44 ET.
But as we noted in Monday’s missive, 1) the usual suspects are conditioned to play for a Monday rally; 2) despite the debunking of a Fed rate cut in March, the Fed and US Treasury are still flooding the system with ‘election year’ amounts of liquidity and 3) stocks have broken out to the upside.
So, the usual suspects eagerly and aggressively bought ESHs, driving them to 4969.50 at 12:40 ET. ESHs and stocks then traded sideways with a slight upward bias until ESHs jumped to new NYSE session highs after 14:30 ET. After inching up to 4977.50 at14:47 ET, ESHs sank to 4962.50 at 15:15 ET.
The late manipulation pushed ESHs to 4975.25 at 15:35 ET. They then sank to 4955.50 at the close.
Biden Blames ‘Corporate Greed’ as Driver of US Inflation (It’s always someone else’s fault!) – BBG
Fed’s Kashkari: Strong economy means Fed has time to study data before rate cutshttp://reut.rs/3uqqi6P
New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries Boeing Co said on Sunday it will have to do more work on about 50 undelivered 737 MAX airplanes, potentially delaying some near-term deliveries, after its supplier Spirit AeroSystems, discovered two mis-drilled holes on some fuselages. Boeing confirmed the findings in response to a Reuters query after industry sources said an “edge margin”, or spacing problem, had been found in holes drilled on a window frame on some jets… https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-delays-some-737-max-deliveries-after-new-quality-defect-2024-02-05/
McDonald’s earnings miss: Sales are still growing but not as much as Wall Street expected The company… posted global same-store sales growth of 3.4%, lower than the expected 4.79% jump. Its US sales growth clocked in at 4.3%, under the 4.45% increase Wall Street anticipated. That’s in contrast to Q3, where overall same-store sales increased 8.8%, beating analyst estimates at the time… In the fourth quarter, adjusted earnings per share increased 18% to $2.95, higher than the $2.82 expected, while total revenue jumped 8% to $6.41 billion… In the US, Q4 sales growth was driven by larger check sizes and increased menu prices… (Inflation!) https://t.co/kj8qGmemYf
Electric Car Demand Plummets (in UK) Amid Backlash Over High Prices Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represented just 14.7% of new car sales in January, down from 19.7% in December, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It comes after full-year figures for 2023 revealed that the market share of EVs was going into reverse for the first time, with many drivers still put off by high upfront costs, unevenly spread charging networks and big insurance premiums… https://dailysceptic.org/2024/02/05/electric-car-demand-plummets-amid-backlash-over-high-prices/
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on conditioned trader buying after an early tumble
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds tumbled on the renewed inflation angst ESHs tumbled during the last 25 minutes of trading Chinese equity indices are at or near 5-year lows The Street consensus of rate cuts has already been reduced to 4 from 6
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How bad will China get?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4939.36 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4957.19; 4918.09
GOP House Majority Leader @SteveScalise: Let me be clear: The Senate Border Bill will NOT receive a vote in the House. Here’s what the people pushing this “deal” aren’t telling you: It accepts 5,000 illegal immigrants a dayand gives automatic work permits to asylum recipients—a magnet for more illegal immigration.
Today – Even though there was a sizable rally after the morning tumble in the US, traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. As we keep harping, the Street is extraordinarily euphoric while the Fed and US Treasury are providing beaucoup election year liquidity into the markets and the economy.
Though February is historically the third worst month for stocks – and it’s even worse after strong Q4 into January equity rallies – the usual suspects are conditioned to buy and will continue to do so until they are severely punished for doing so. The date to circle is February 21; that’s when Nvidia is scheduled to release its Q4 results. 4.52 is consensus.
ESHs are +1.25 and USHs are +12/32 at 20:15 ET.
Expected Economic Data: none; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 12:00 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 13:00 ET, Boston Fed Pres Collins 14:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4727; 100-day MA: 4534; 150-day MA: 4516; 200-day MA: 4442 DJIA 50-day MA: 37,207; 100-day MA: 35,534; 150-day MA: 35,290; 200-day MA: 34,874 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4633.13 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4960.45 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close below 4967.48 triggers a sell signal
@Jim_Jordan: THE AMAZON FILES – “feeling pressure from the White House” Internal docs subpoenaed by @JudiciaryGOP & @Weaponization indicate that @amazon bowed down to Biden White House pressure to censor BOOKS. Never-before-released internal emails subpoenaed by @JudiciaryGOP reveal that the Biden White House pressured Amazon to censor books that expressed views the White House did not approve of. “Is the [Biden] Admin asking us to remove books”? https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1754637205773963625
Biden: Everything in Border Bipartisan Deal Gives Me Control – BBG 15:19 ET Biden: Disappointed Senate Deal Didn’t Include Fix for Dreamers – BBG 15:29 ET
GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: The Biden/Schumer/Lankford/McConnell Amnesty Bill: Shells out another $60.06 billion to Ukraine Provides taxpayer-funded lawyers for some illegals Gives immediate work permits to illegal aliens Provides a pathway to citizenship for some illegals Prevents illegal immigrant children from being deported
@SpeakerJohnson: This bill is even worse than we expected and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the President has created. As the lead Democrat negotiator proclaimed: Under this legislation, “the border never closes.”If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival.
GOP Sen. @JDVance1: Granting Mayorkas the ability to grant asylum claims without going through immigration court is perhaps the worst provision of the bill.
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: The “border deal” is an easy NO. It reads like a parody of an actual border security bill.
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Two weeks ago, at a Senate press conference, I said this deal was a “stinking pile of crap.”It turns out my assessment was too generous.
GOP @RepDanBishop: Illegal aliens not from Mexico or Canada won’t be counted toward total encounters. https://t.co/rAjCPmj9IV All challenges to the statute or any policy, guideline, or procedure Mayorkas sees fit to issue will be heard exclusively by the federal district court in the Swamp (Dem-controlled DC District Court). Tough orders from federal district courts in Texas and Florida will be no more. https://twitter.com/RepDanBishop/status/1754317514669002785
GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: Senate GOP leadership screwed this up—and screwed us. Even while refusing to let us see the bill they claimed to be negotiating on our behalf—for MONTHS—they were never in doubt, insisting we’d be dumb and even unpatriotic NOT to support it…
@WSJ: Three senators spent four months shaping a bipartisan deal designed to sharply cut down on illegal border crossings. It could take just days to fall apart: “I think the proposal is dead.”
@mirandadevine: It is baffling there were Senate Republicans who negotiated this. Can anyone explain? Were they conned? Not paying attention? Unwell? And if you wanted to win, why would you send a Lankford to negotiate with foxes? Especially when you have a chamber of Schmitts and Hawleys and Cruzes and Cottons. @seanmdav: Glitch McConnell cares about two things: funneling money to Ukraine and defeating Donald Trump. That horrific amnesty bill was his moonshot approach to doing both at the same time.
@Geiger_Capital: I missed it earlier, but this bill also provides TAXPAYER-FUNDED lawyers for illegal migrants who come in… Our leaders might actually hate us.
@America1stLegal: The new Senate border bill is out and we are evaluating it, but here are TEN things you should know to start with (there are more). In sum, it appears to be WORSE THAN the current law. Read this and decide for yourself.https://twitter.com/America1stLegal/status/1754315351855100084?s=02
@foxnewspolitics: Immigration activists, liberal Senate Dems trash border deal over lack of amnesty for illegals
“Unless the people, through unified action, arise and take charge of their government, they will find that their government has taken charge of them. Independence and liberty will be gone, and the general public will find itself in a condition of servitude to an aggregation of organized and selfish interest.” – Calvin Coolidge
GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: Joe Biden says he has no authority to end the border crisis. Fact Check: The President of the United States has the power to suspend all immigration into the country.
@DavidSacks: The Inflation Reduction Act was actually a trillion dollar spending bill. The border security bill is actually a mass amnesty. Just assume bills do the opposite of what they say.
@tomselliott: @SenSchumer threatens to send U.S. troops to fight Russia unless Republicans agree to his $100 billion world-aid bill: “If we don’t aid Ukraine, Putin will be walk all over Ukraine, we will lose the war & we could be fighting in eastern Europe & a NATO ally in a few years. Americans won’t like that.”https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1754506856301461976
@TheFirstonTV: JOE SPIRALS: “Right after I was elected… I went to a G7 meeting […] Mitterrand from Germany, I mean from France, looked at me, and said, uh… suh said… You know… What? Why? How long you back for?” Francois Mitterrand died in 1996.https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1754626310800863412
Joe’s fighting talk for sick f**k Trump: Biden unleashes on GOP rival during Las Vegas fundraiser, warning he has to ‘hold his Irish temper’ around himhttps://t.co/4WF5bKnGqF
@SteveGuest: Biden, in Las Vegas: “It’ll take you from here to Las Vegas.” It should be no surprise why only 23% of people say Biden has the necessary physical/mental strength to be pres. https://t.co/bas26sAwHE
@greg_price11: Biden: “I love how Trump is saying Biden is for abortion on demand. That’s not true. That’s not what Roe v. Wade said. It said the three trimesters.”https://t.co/DDr5DZLYoo
@ABC: Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley on Sunday said that she does not believe states have the right to secede from the U.S. — the opposite of what she said days earlier.
The Elites Opened the Doors to Migrants—and Chaos – Op-ed in WSK Bleeding-heart liberalism has taken a dangerous turn toward an ideology that rejects national borders. We are witnessing instead the most powerful indictment of a political and cultural elite… disgorging hundreds of millions of people to the wealthy north is making chaos of the attitudes and decisions of a ruling elite that—by design or accident—seems hell-bent on the West’s self-annihilation… Unless we turn back now, the consequences of all this will overwhelm us. Migrant crime will surely get worse, our drug epidemic will widen, our exposure to terrorism will increase. https://ovarit.com/o/NameTheProblem/533249/the-elites-opened-the-doors-to-migrants-and-chaos
Open Borders and Closed Courts: How the Supreme Court Laid the Seeds for the Immigration Crisis – JonathanTurley Yet this crisis is the result of decades of court rulings expanding executive powers while limiting the ability to challenge those policies. The court’s decisions narrowing standing have been deleterious, limiting those who can challenge unlawful or unconstitutional acts by the federal government… The Constitution would have likely failed in ratification if they had been told of the degree to which they would become dependent on federal authority within their states… The combination of open borders and closed courts will continue to fuel this crisis. If the justices will not allow states to close their borders, they can at least open the courts to allow them greater ability to be heard. https://jonathanturley.org/2024/02/05/open-borders-and-closed-courts-how-the-supreme-court-laid-the-seeds-for-the-immigration-crisis/
Reuters: The U.S did not give pre-notification to Iraq ahead of strikes on Friday against three militant sites inside that country, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said on Monday, adding that Iraq was informed immediately after the strikes. Reuters’ @idreesali114: This is directly contradicting what the White House said on record on Friday, that the Biden admin did indeed notify the Iraqis ahead of time.
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