FEB 8/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.70 TO $2032.90//SILVER WAS UP 29 CENTS TO $22.56//PLATINUM WAS UP $6.55 TO $889.00 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $11.40 TO $888.60 AND FINALLY PLATINUM OVERTAKES PALLADIUM IN PRICE/JAPAN DISCOVERS A LEAK CAUSING 5.5 TONNES OF RADIOACTIVE WATER TO ENTER THE OCEAN/CHINA ENTERS DEFLATION AND THE DESPERATE NEED FOR STIMULUS TO INFLATE THEIR ECONOMY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: FIGHTING TO INITIATE AT RAFAH//FIGHTING INTENSIFIES AROUND KHAN YOUNIS//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH: ISRAEL DRONES A MAJOR OPERATIVE INSIDE LEBANON//OTHER MAJOR STORIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST///COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES//MARK CRISPIN MILLER//DR PAUL ALEXANDER///SLAY NEWS ETC//MAYHEM IN PAKISTAN DURING ELECTION DAY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

February 8, 2024 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $2.70  TO $2032.90

SILVER PRICE UP 29 CENTS TO $22.56

Gold ACCESS CLOSED 2033.40

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: 22.57

Bitcoin morning price:, 44,642 UP 635 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $45,429 UP 1422 dollars

Platinum price closing  $889.00 UP $6.55

Palladium price;     $888.60 DOWN $11.40

END

A Hospital in Russia which specializes in treating Senior Citizens who suffer from Dementia, has new advertising posters showing . . . . Joe Biden

Biden supporters in the US have allegedly responded with a poster of their own:

SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 43 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,736.54 DOWN 2.01 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 2023)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1611.41 UP 0.50 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023

*EURO GOLD: 1886.62 DOWN 1.40 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX

 JPMorgan stopped 1/237 contracts.

FOR FEB.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT:  53 NOTICES FOR 5300 OZ  or  0.1648 TNNES

total notices so far: 16,481 contracts for 1,648,100   Oz (51.138 tonnes)
FOR  FEBRUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 0  NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1058  for 5,290,000 oz

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Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70//CROOKS

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES

SLV//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 29  CENTS  AT  THE SLV//

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 439.444 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1,231 CONTRACTS TO 148,564 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF  $0.18  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING AS THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE APPRECIABLY AGAIN.  WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS 3533 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 3533 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.18), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1631 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD:

A GOOD SIZED 400 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 290,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL; 6.44 MILLION OZ   

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.44 MILLION OZ 

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUMONGOUS  SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3533 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 513  CONTRACTS //

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6days, total 3436 contracts:   OR 17.180 MILLION OZ  (572 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  17.180 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 17.180 MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1231  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 400  ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF  3.535 MILLION  OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 290,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 6.44 MILLION OZ 

NEW STANDING  6.44 MILLION OZ   /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1631 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS  IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3533 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY  COMEX SESSION/// WITH ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS (OPEN INTEREST ROSE DRAMATICALLY AGAIN) .  THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DAY NIGHT  (3533) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .

WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR  SIZED 2308 CONTRACTS  TO 421,429 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  + added 21 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 2308 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $0.40 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494  TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 54.094 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.40 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 4165 OI CONTRACTS (12.954) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1857 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 421,429

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4165 CONTRACTS  WITH 2308  CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1857 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4165 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED):  A GOOD  SIZED 3049 CONTRACTS. 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1857 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2308) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4,165 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 54.094 TONNES.  / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //  4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5)   FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  GOOD T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 3049 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 24,447 CONTRACTS OR 2,444,700 OZ OR 76.040 TONNES IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4074  EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  76.040 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  76.040/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.14% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 76.040 TONNES (SHOULD BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1231  CONTRACTS OI  TO 147,333 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE  400  CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MARCH  400  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  400  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1231 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A  GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1631 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 8.155 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $.18 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.21 PTS OR 1.28%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 203.72 PTS OR 1.27%         /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 743.36 OR 2.06%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.31%    /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1965  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2184 /Oil UP TO 74.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 80.07/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 2308 CONTRACTS  TO 421,429 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.40 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1857  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  APRIL 1857  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1857 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4165  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1857 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2308  COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.40 WEDNESDAY COMEX.  AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 3049 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   FEB  (54.094 TONNES)  (   ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  54.094 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $0.40 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 4165 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING .   THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED  NERVOUS SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS LONGS NOTIFIED THE CME THAT THEY WERE TAKING DELIVERY ON THEIR JUST PURCHASED GOLD CONTRACTS. 

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 12.954 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON .00124 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 54.094: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN  IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $0.40  

WE HAD + added 79   CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4165 CONTRACTS OR 416,500 OZ OR 12.954 TONNES.
estimated volume today: 137,674 extremely poor

final gold volumes/yesterday  134,721 extremely poor 

//speculators have left the gold arena

FEB 8 INITIAL  FEB  GOLD

/ /// THE FEB  2024 GOLD CONTRACT

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz


8327.109 oz
MALCA
259 tonness



















 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz









 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz2420.55 oz
HSBC
enhanced
No of oz served (contracts) today53  notice(s)
5300 OZ
.1648 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  403  contracts 
  40,300 oz
1.253 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month16,441  notices
1,644,100 oz
51,138 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 1

i) out of Malca: 8327.109 oz (259 kilobars)

total withdrawals 8327.109  oz 259 kilobars

we had 0 customer deposits

Adjustments: 1  dealer to customer

 a) JPMorgan: 289.359 oz (9 kilobaers)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 456  contracts having LOST 241 contracts. We had 237 notices filed on Wednesday, so we lost 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will not stand for delivery at the comex but they were immediately ferried over to London via an EFP transfer and they took delivery over on that side of the pond.

We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.

Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 13,300 oz for .4136 tonnes//New standing 52.409 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 54.132 TONNES

March gained 15 contracts to stand at 2078.

APRIL GAINED 1349 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 344,649.

We had  237 contracts filed for today representing  23,700    oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 16  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 53   contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,441 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  FEB. (456  CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  53 x 100 oz per contract equals  1,684,400 OZ  OR 52.391 TONNES  + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 54.094 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month:  No of notices filed so far (16,441) x 100 oz +  (456) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (53)  x 100 oz) which equals  1,684,400  oz (52.391 TONNES) + 54,400 oz(1.723 TONNES) ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 54.094 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 54.094 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,350,186.829   41.99 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  19,030,314,485 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,824,221.045  (274.47  tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,206,088.440 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,474,329 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 232.48 tonnes

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 8/INITIAL

//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory


1,618,010.920
oz
Asahi
Brinks
CNT








































































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ






 
Deposits to the Customer Inventoryniloz















 











































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)0 CONTRACT(S)  
 (0 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)141 contracts 
(705,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1058 Contracts
 (5,290,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 deposits customer account:

total customer deposits nil  oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806  million oz/273.015 million  or 47.61%

adjustment: 0

Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks 964,670.980 oz

ii) Out of Asahi: 592,988.700 oz

iii) Out of CNT 60,351.256 oz

total withdrawal: 1,618,010.920 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.015 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB. /2023 OI: 141  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 338  CONTRACT(S).  WE HAD 396 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 58 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 290,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.

MARCH LOST 5187 CONTRACTS TO 95,074

APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 16

MAY SAW A GAIN OF 4096 CONTRACTS UP TO 36,896

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 396 for 1,980,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 76,777 very good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 71,629 very good

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1058 x  5,000 oz = 5,290,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (141) and the number of notices served upon today  0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month:  1058 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (141) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB  contract month equates to 5.995 MILLION OZ.  + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 6.44 MILLION OZ

 New total standing: 6.44 million oz.

There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:

FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:

FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:

FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:

TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85  TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25  TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 842.22 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ

JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 439.994 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

END

2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

MATHEW PIEPENBURG

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches

Your weekend reading material: why Russia and China are accumulating gold reserves

Alasdair Macleod: How Russia and China could deploy their hidden gold reserves

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-02-07 19:10 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
Wednesday, February 7, 2024

An overlooked aspect of geopolitics is the defensive action taken by Asian hegemons and their close allies against a collapse of the Western currency system.

Unlike our economists who are overwhelmingly Keynesian, the economic tradition from Soviet and communist China was that the West’s capitalist system would collapse. Admittedly, China’s economists have increasingly studied in the West and picked up Keynesian concepts, but they remain acutely aware of the weaknesses of our capitalist system.

This is why they have secretly accumulated gold as the ultimate protection against a collapse of the fiat dollar and allied currencies. 

The only reason preventing China from putting her renminbi onto a gold standard immediately is that it would trigger a collapse in Western currencies, with consequences for her export industries. She will take this action only defensively. 

Russia would probably prefer a more immediate move to back the rouble with gold but is constrained in her partnership with China.

This article assesses the hidden gold reserves of China and Russia and their potential deployment. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://alasdairmacleod.substack.com/p/who-owns-the-gold

END

Russian banks may have swapped gold for dollars, report says

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-02-07 18:24 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Some Russian banks appear to have maneuvered around a ban on shipping dollars and euros to the country by trading gold in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, according to research from a financial-intelligence company.

The sanctions on the export of banknotes were introduced after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. The report compiled by Sayari found that in the first quarter of 2023, the financial institutions — which include Lanta Bank JSC, whose owners control gold miner GV Gold, and at least one lender that is not sanctioned — imported more than the equivalent of $82 million in euros, dollars and UAE dirhams. 

The data shows that several of the same entities used to ship cash to Russia also imported gold from Russia within similar timeframes.

Bloomberg was unable to independently corroborate all the trade and company data, and it’s not clear if the banks are still using the gold-for-cash strategy. 

Sayari’s data indicated that various Russian lenders kept shipping gold for banknotes through at least July or August of last year, said Zachary Tvarozna, a senior analyst at the firm. He said that gold deliveries seem to have expanded to Hong Kong, in addition to the UAE and Turkey. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/some-russian-banks-may-have-swapped-gold-for-dollars-report-says

END

China’s new year buyers look to gold as stocks and property crash

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-02-07 18:18 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Gold has never been more expensive in China heading into the Lunar New Year, but consumers are still finding lots of reasons to buy the precious metal.

While the holiday season usually drives increased spending on items like jewelry, reports of robust demand this year are remarkable because the shopping season happens to coincide with a stock market crash. 

It’s just the latest symptom of a loss of confidence in the economy that has weighed on consumer spending. 

But gold’s billing as a surefire store of value in times of trouble is finding new fans, including from younger buyers.

One shopper, who works in the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, said he spent a few thousand yuan this week buying a gold necklace for his girlfriend as a present for both Lunar New Year and Valentine’s Day, which both fall in the middle of February.

“I previously wanted to buy a necklace from a luxury brand, but on second thought I went for gold jewelry due to its investment value,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/china-s-new-year-buyers-look-to-gold-xau-as-stocks-and-property-crash

end

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

Bitcoin Surges Over $45,000 As Rising ETFs Inflows Confirm Accelerating Investor Interest

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 10:05 AM

Two weeks ago, when the general public was confused by the relentless selling in crypto following the launch of the long-awaited Bitcoin ETFs, we explained that this was the result of aggressive liquidation by the bankrupt FTX which was dumping billions in previously locked up assets at the GBTC bitcoin trust, which it would then use to fund recoveries for FTX unsecured creditors.

Sure enough, since then GBTC outflows have slowed to a trickle, even as inflows in the various new spot bitcoin ETFs have picked up, and in fact in the latest update, we have seen the biggest net inflow into the bitcoin ETF complex led by $130MM inflows into the Fidelity FBTC ETF, which have brought the total net inflow (excluding continued GBTC outflows) to the highest level in February.

And now that the Bitcoin ETF use case is starting to get daily validation and even Bloomberg is writing that ETFs are “starting to show steady inflows”, this morning Bitcoin topped $45,000 for the first time in almost a month as the continued allocation of cash into the space from various investors is tracking risk appetite rising across financial markets.

As shown below, bitcoin rose as much as 2.2% to $45,150 on Thursday. Bitcoin last traded above $45,000 on Jan. 12, the day after the ETFs began trading. After being weighed down initially by outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the funds have seen net inflows for nine consecutive trading sessions through Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Bitcoin appears set to resume its march up after the Grayscale outflows finally tapered off,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets, and confirming what we said two weeks ago.

“We expect the Bitcoin halving narrative to gather momentum over the next few weeks, which should help drive a rally through the psychologically important $50,000 level,” Mauron said, referencing the event anticipated in April where the blockchain’s network protocol will reduce rewards for verifying transactions by half.

The halving cuts the quantity of Bitcoin that miners receive for operating power-hungry computers that secure the network by solving complex puzzles. Halving is key to capping the supply of Bitcoin at 21 million tokens. Rewards drop to 3.125 coins per block from 6.25 coins in the upcoming event. And while the market is increasingly excited about the bitcoin halving, it appears to have completely forgotten that the supply of ETH tokens is actually declining now due to the burn rate consistantly above the rate of issuance, making ether the first currency whose circulation is decreasing.

Curiously after hitting a multi-year high of $2700 in January, ether has been lagging, however that may be temporary because as Standard Chartered laid out last week, ETH will likely hit $4,000 by May as the market frontrun the next major ETF approval by the SEC, that of Ethereum ETFs.

end

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN 7.1965

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2184

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 36.21 PTS OR 1.28%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 203.82 PTS OR 1.27%

2. Nikkei closed UP 743.36 PTS OR 2.07%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX UP  TO  104.18 EURO FALLS TO 1.0753 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.693 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.27/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN  CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN//  OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3310***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.906* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.260…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.351

3j Gold at $2024.20 silver at: 22.28  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 10 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.37//

3m oil into the 74  dollar handle for WTI and  80  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149,27//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.693% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8742 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9401 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.145 UP 5 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.341  UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.442 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.60…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 3  BASIS PTS AT 4.055

end

2.a  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge

Futures Drop, Yields And Oil Rise Amid Earnings Firehose

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 08:19 AM

US equity futures dropped on Thursday after hitting a fresh all time high in the previous session, and bond yields rose as investors analyze a slew of earnings reports and also prepared for the sale of 30Y treassuries. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.2%, but even with the decline the S&P remains within striking distance of the 5,000 level and a small gain of just 5 points would take it there today. The MSCI World Index of developed-market stocks also rose to a record. The Stoxx 600 traded flat on the busiest day of the European earnings season. The dollar gains after the yen tumbled following dovish comments from BOJ Deputy governor Uchida who said the BOJ won’t aggressively hike rates even after ending negative rates (unclear who expected the BOJ to unleash a hiking spree). Commodities are the standout pre-mkt as the energy complex leads the group higher and strength across metals. It’s another busy day for earnings: the lineup in the US today includes Expedia, Philip Morris, ConocoPhillips, S&P Global and cereal maker Kellanova. On the macro side we get jobless claims and wholesale trade and inventories.

In premarket trading, Arm Holdings jumped 25% after a bullish forecast from the chip designer. Disney rose 7% after reporting disappointing revenue and a miss on subscriber growth offset by better-than-expected Q1 earnings, unveiling a new buyback and issuing an upbeat profit outlook for the year, citing cost-cutting benefits and the strong performance of its international theme parks. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S tumbled after predicting a slowdown in the shipping industry. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Apollo Global Management (APO) rises 4% after reporting a profit that beat Wall Street expectations as higher interest rates bolstered the alternative-asset manager’s growing credit and insurance businesses.
  • ARM (ARM) jumps 28% after the chip designer gave a surprisingly bullish forecast, showing that its push beyond smartphones is helping fuel growth and profitability.
  • Axcelis (ACLS) tumbles 8% after the maker of equipment used to manufacture chips provided a 1Q revenue forecast that disappointed.
  • Confluent (CFLT) soars 24% after the application software company gave a full-year revenue forecast that’s ahead of the analyst consensus.
  • Digital Turbine (APPS) falls 17% as the company’s sales and EPS forecasts lag estimates.
  • GoPro (GPRO) drops 13% after the consumer electronics company posted 4Q revenue that disappointed.
  • Monolithic Power (MPWR) gains 6% after the semiconductor device company issued 1Q revenue guidance that beat expectations.
  • Oscar Health (OSCR) jumps 21% after the health insurer forecast better-than-expected adjusted Ebitda for 2024.
  • PayPal (PYPL) drops 9% after the digital payments firm issued a disappointing 2024 outlook, which Wells Fargo said would “vindicate the perma-bears.”
  • Rapid7 (RPD) slips 7% after the software company gave a full-year revenue forecast that was weaker than expected.
  • Under Armour (UAA) gains 6% after raising its outlook for full-year earnings, with cost cuts in its turnaround effort making up for a continued decline in revenue.

As DB’s Jim Reid notes, markets put in a solid performance over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.82%) reaching an all-time high and closing just shy of the 5,000 mark at 4995.06. Indeed, at the intraday peak it had been even closer than that, with an intraday high of 4999.89. In the meantime, US Treasury yields saw a modest increase (+2.1bps) but there was strong demand at a 10yr auction that was the biggest ever, at $42bn.

Yet despite the decent performance in markets, yesterday also saw continued concerns about regional banks and commercial real estate, which means futures are still pricing a 21% chance that the Fed will cut rates next month. So even as several Fed officials have said they want to see more evidence on the inflation side, it’s clear that markets are still pricing in a risk that they may end up needing to move quicker than that. Meanwhile, markets have continued to shrug off fears around the commercial real estate sector and absorbed a run of warnings from Fed policy makers that a cut isn’t likely until May at the earliest. And so, traders have continued to pile into big tech stocks, helping propel the S&P 500 index to a fresh high on Wednesday — taking it closer to the 5,000 level.

“We think this rally has legs and we think it has room to run,” BlackRock Investment Institute head Jean Boivin, who’s overweight US equities, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “This soft landing narrative is pretty powerful and it’s going to take time for it to be challenged.”

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that he thought 2-3 cuts would be appropriate for 2024, and that “We’re not looking for better inflation data, we’re just looking for additional inflation data that is also at around this 2% level”. So he said that if they “see a few more months of that data, I think that will give us a lot of confidence.” Later on, Governor Kugler said that she was “pleased by the progress on inflation, and optimistic it will continue”. And after that, Boston Fed President Collins said that “it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year.” Finally, Richmond Fed President Barkin said he was “very supportive of being patient to get to where we need to get”.

Elsewhere, while the US Treasury had successful sales of three- and 10-year bonds this week, its latest auction on Thursday of longer-maturity debt could prove a tougher test. “This week’s government bond auctions have generally been well received, with the latest selloff in rates likely helping the case,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a multi-asset strategist at Mizuho in London.

European stocks gained as investors digest a slew of corporate earnings on the busiest day of the season. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, trading at a fresh 23 year high. Unilever and British American Tobacco both rally after their respective updates. AstraZeneca falls on a disappointing outlook. Some 37 companies in the Stoxx 600 are due to release results today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Asia, stocks were mixed as mainland Chinese equities fluctuated on the final trading day before the Lunar New Year holidays. China’s CSI 300 Index swung between gains and losses after the nation replaced the head of its securities regulator Wednesday, a surprise move that may foreshadow more forceful steps to support the stock market. We also heard from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida, who said that even if they ended negative interest rates “ it is hard to imagine a path in which it would then keep raising the interest rate rapidly”. So that indicated a fairly dovish path, even if rates were hiked, which has helped the Nikkei (+2.18%) see a significant outperformance this morning. Yields on 10yr Japanese government bonds are also down -1.2bps.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech after Alibaba shares slumped on disappointing earnings, while the mainland gained despite the soft inflation data with sentiment upbeat heading into the Lunar New Year holidays and after the PBoC injected liquidity. China also recently replaced CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman with Wu Qing who is nicknamed the “Broker Butcher” for his crackdown on traders.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed and approached closer to the 37,000 level as earnings drove price action and with SoftBank among the biggest gainers after shares in unit Arm Holdings surged by around 20% post-earnings.
  • ASX 200 benefitted from strength in tech and property, while the utilities sector outperformed amid a surge in AGL Energy after it reported a four-fold increase in its core net and returned to a statutory profit for H1.
  • Nifty eventually weakened in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision where the central bank maintained its rates as expected and although there was a change in the vote split with MPC external member Varma the lone dissenter favouring a 25bps cut, the language from Governor Das remained hawkish in which he stated that monetary policy must be disinflationary and the MPC is to remain resolute in bringing inflation down to 4%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% versus the greenback after BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida said it’s hard to see the bank raising its policy rate continuously.

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper on the day across long-end of the curve, holding a steepening move ahead of a $25BN 30-year bond sale at 1pm New York. US yields are higher on the day by up to 3bp across long-end of the curve with front and belly little change on the day, steepening 5s30s spread by 2bp vs. Wednesday close; 10-year yields around 4.135% with bunds and gilts slightly lagging Treasuries. Core European rates lag, led by weakness in gilts while JGB’s outperformed in Asia after BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida said it’s hard to see the bank raising its policy rate continuously. Treasury auctions conclude with $25b 30-year at 1pm, follows strong 3- and 10-year sales so far this week. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; Eli Lilly headlined a seven-deal, $13b calendar Wednesday, pushing weekly volume through $41b, above $25b to $30b expectations.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.7% to trade near $74.40 and near highs into early US session. Spot gold adds 0.1%.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise from central banks, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Wunsch and Lane, the Fed’s Barkin, and the BoE’s Mann.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,012.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 486.78
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 167.87
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 512.66
  • Nikkei up 2.1% to 36,863.28
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,562.63
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 15,878.07
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,865.90
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 71,390.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,639.25
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,620.32
  • German 10Y yield down 1 bp at 2.31%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0781
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $79.11/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,030.84
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 104.05

Top Overnight News

  • China’s CPI deflation worsens in Jan (-0.8% vs. the Street -0.5% and vs. -0.3% in Dec) while the PPI remains deeply in deflationary territory (-2.5% vs. the Street -2.6% and vs. -2.7% in Dec). RTRS
  • Beijing’s ousting of the country’s main securities regulator sent “shockwaves” throughout the industry and the CSRC as there hadn’t been any forewarning of such a dramatic step, a sign of the growing unease among Xi and senior leaders of the market slump. BBG
  • BOJ official signals negative rates will soon end, but the overall pace of tightening will be extremely gradual (“Even if the BOJ were to end our negative interest rate policy, it’s hard to imagine a path in which it would then keep raising the interest rate rapidly”). RTRS  
  • Novo Nordisk is getting calls from food makers as they face up to the potential threat from its appetite-suppressing drugs. CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen said “scared” food bosses want to know how the treatments work and how fast they’ll roll out. BBG
  • UK chip designer Arm said it was seeing higher royalty and licensing revenue amid strong AI demand as it lifted its outlook for the year, sending shares rocketing more than 20 per cent higher in after-hours trading on Wednesday. FT
  • The United States bought more goods from Mexico than China in 2023 for the first time in 20 years, evidence of how much global trade patterns have shifted. NYT
  • The USDA may cut its forecasts for global stockpiles of corn and soybeans in today’s WASDE report. The outlook for Brazil’s soy crop may be lowered by 3.3 million tons, or more than 2%. BBG
  • US drone strike killed top commander of Iran-backed militia group blamed for attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. WaPo
  • Congress in chaos as border/Ukraine bill fails with a path forward on legislation pertaining just to national security (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan) not in sight. WaPo

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the fresh record levels on Wall St where the S&P 500 touched just shy of the 5k level, while participants digested recent earnings releases and Chinese inflation data ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. ASX 200 benefitted from strength in tech and property, while the utilities sector outperformed amid a surge in AGL Energy  after it reported a four-fold increase in its core net and returned to a statutory profit for H1. Nikkei 225 outperformed and approached closer to the 37,000 level as earnings drove price action and with SoftBank among the biggest gainers after shares in unit Arm Holdings surged by around 20% post-earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech after Alibaba shares slumped on disappointing earnings, while the mainland gained despite the soft inflation data with sentiment upbeat heading into the Lunar New Year holidays and after the PBoC injected liquidity. China also recently replaced CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman with Wu Qing who is nicknamed the “Broker Butcher” for his crackdown on traders. Nifty eventually weakened in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision where the central bank maintained its rates as expected and although there was a change in the vote split with MPC external member Varma the lone dissenter favouring a 25bps cut, the language from Governor Das remained hawkish in which he stated that monetary policy must be disinflationary and the MPC is to remain resolute in bringing inflation down to 4%.

Top Asian News

  • China Auto Industry Body official says battery vehicle sales were -37% in Jan M/M; far below market expectations, which is a main source of pressure on auto market growth.
  • US President Biden is poised to limit Americans’ personal data going to China with the administration planning to issue an order as soon as next week, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said the BoJ won’t aggressively hike rates even after ending negative rates and noted that Japan’s real interest rate is in deeply negative territory and monetary conditions are very accommodative which is not expected to change in a big way. Furthermore, Uchida said uncertainty over the outlook remains high, but the likelihood of sustainably achieving our price target is gradually heightening and it is hard to imagine a path of continuous rate hikes.
  • RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained its stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 5 out of 6 members voted in favour of the rate decision and policy stance, with MPC external member Varma the lone dissenter who voted for a 25bps cut and for a change in stance to neutral. RBI Governor Das stated that growth in India is accelerating and inflation is on a downward trajectory in India, while he added that transmission of policy rate hikes is still underway and monetary policy must be disinflationary. Furthermore, Governor Das said inflation needs to align at 4% on a durable basis and the MPC is to remain resolute in bringing inflation down to 4%, as well as noted that monetary policy has to remain vigilant and that the last mile of disinflation is always the most challenging.
  • Chinese President Xi says China should enhance positive economic recovery and China is going to comprehensively deepen reforms, via Xinhua.
  • PBoC releases Q4 monetary policy report: vows to keep monetary policy prudent. Prudent policy will be flexible, precise and effective; will fend off risks in key areas

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.4%), began the session on a firmer footing and have extended modesty thereafter. The AEX is the European outperformer, led by post-earnings strength in Unilever (+2.9%), ArcelorMittal (+2.6%) and Adyen (+16%). European sectors are mixed; Food Beverage & Tobacco is lifted by strength in British American Tobacco (+7.5%) post-earning. Healthcare is hampered by losses in AstraZeneca (-2.3%). US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C, RTY -0.3%) are mixed; the ES and NQ are within contained levels and meandering around the unchanged mark, whilst the RTY is softer, as the index continues the prior day’s underperformance. Disney (+6%) reported a mixed set of results though did boost its cash dividend by 50%.

Top European News

  • ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024: Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
  • Riksbank’s Jansson says inflationary pressures have continued to ease, makes it possible to cut earlier than thought in November.

Earnings

  • Walt Disney Co (DIS) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.22 (exp. 0.99), Revenue 23.55bln (exp. 23.64bln). Disney boosts cash dividend by 50% and targets USD 3bln buyback in FY24. Disney+ subscribers 149.6mln (exp. 151.2mln). Entertainment revenue USD 9.98bln (exp. 10.52bln). Sports revenue USD 4.84bln (exp. 4.62bln). Experiences revenue USD 9.13bln (exp. 9.04bln). Sees FY Adj. EPS about USD 4.60 (exp. 4.27). CEO Iger said parks and resorts continue to do extremely well. Co. is to invest USD 1.5bln in Fortnite maker Epic Games. (Newswires) Shares +6.7% in pre-market trade
  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.48 (exp. 1.36), Revenue 8.02bln (exp. 7.87bln). Total payment volume USD 409.83bln (exp. 403.6bln). Transaction revenue USD 7.28bln (exp. 7.1bln). Active customer accounts 426mln (exp. 427.98mln). Payment transactions 6.80bln (exp. 6.60bln). Sees FY24 Adj. EPS USD 5.10 (exp. 5.49). Sees FY24 share repurchase of at least USD 5bln. (Newswires) Shares -8.9% in pre-market trade
  • AstraZeneca (AZN LN) – FY (USD): Revenue 45.8bln (exp. 45.7bln), Core EPS 7.26 (exp. 7.27), Dividend 2.90/shr (exp. 3.00/shr). Q4: Core EPS 1.45 (exp. 1.51), Revenue 12.02bln (exp. 11.94bln). (Newswires) Shares -2.7% in European trade
  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) – FY23 (GBP): Revenue 27.28bln (exp. 27.6bln, prev. 28.1bln Y/Y), EPS 375.6p (exp. 376.1p); takes a non-cash impairment charge of GBP 27.3bln, mainly related acquisition of US combustibles brands. (Newswires) Shares +7.5% in European trade
  • Siemens (SIE GY) – Q4 (EUR): Net Income 2.5bln (exp. 1.7bln). Industrial Business Profit 2.72bln (exp. 2.67bln). Revenue 18.4bln (exp. 18.8bln); Free cash flow rose sharply to EUR 1.0bln (prev. 86mln) driven by Industrial Business. Reaffirms FY24 outlook. (Siemens). Index Weightings: DAX 40: 8.8% (Second largest); Euro Stoxx 50: 3.4%; Stoxx 600: 1.1%. Shares +0.6% in European trade
  • Kering (KER FP) – FY (EUR): Revenue 19.56bln (exp. 19.59bln), Net 2.98bln (exp. 3.16bln), EBITDA 6.6bln (exp. 6.4bln), EPS 24.38 (exp. 25.60), Gucci Revenue 9.87bln (exp. 10.48bln), Yves St Laurent Revenue 3.18bln (prev. 3.3bln), Dividend 14/shr (exp. 12.89/shr). CFO: end-year trends were, overall, like the rest of the year but saw an improvement in Europe & US. Will continue to invest in brands in the long term, margins could be impacted more this year. FY24 Guidance: Recurring Operating Income to decline Y/Y, particularly within H1. (Newswires) Shares +3.7% in European trade
  • ArcelorMittal (MT NA) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 14.6bln (exp. 15.7bln). EBITDA 1.27bln (exp. 1.23bln). Net Income -2.97bln (exp. -1.82bln). Co. says Chinese economic growth “is expected to weaken”. Co. remains positive on the medium/long-term steel demand outlook. OUTLOOK “As anticipated, apparent demand conditions are now showing signs of improvement as the destocking phase reaches maturity.” “Despite continued headwinds to real demand, World ex-China apparent steel consumption (“ASC”) in 2024 is expected to grow by +3.0% to +4.0% as compared to 2023.” Shares +2.6% in European trade
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 11.7bln (exp. 11.46bln), EBITDA 0.839bln (exp. 1.13bln), EBIT -537mln (exp. -407mln), EPS -27 (exp. -42), Dividend 5.15/shr. Suspends buyback. High uncertainty remains around the duration & degree of Red Sea disruption, duration from one-quarter to FY reflected via the FY guidance ranges.. Shares -17% in European trade.

FX

  • Contained trade for the USD thus far within tight 103.95-104.16 parameters which near enough matches yesterday’s range; 100DMA provides resistance at 104.18.
  • The EUR is steady vs. the USD with recent hawkish comments from Schnabel providing support after Tuesday’s 1.0722 YTD trough. Upside resistance comes via 100DMA at 1.0785 ahead of the round 1.08 mark.
  • JPY the slight underperformer across the majors following dovish BoJ commentary overnight. USD/JPY topped out around the YTD peak of 148.89. CPI revisions tomorrow or CPI next week could provide the next inflection point.
  • Antipodeans are both out of favour vs. the USD with AUD marginally more so. (Relatively) hawkish RBA unable to reverse downtrend for AUD/USD absent an economic recovery in China; currently holding above its YTD trough at 0.6486.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1063 vs exp. 7.1911 (prev. 7.1049).
  • CBRT Inflation Report: year-end 2024 forecast 36% (prev. 36%), 2025 14% (prev. 14%), 2026 9%

Fixed Income

  • USTs are trading heavy into the 30yr auction which has historically had a softer reception than the shorter-dated peers sold already this week, with clear and relatively pronounced steepening in play; holds above session trough at 111-00+.
  • Bunds are pressured given the above with specifics a touch light as newsflow has been dominated by earnings. Ahead, numerous ECB speakers but Chief Economist Lane will take centre stage where we are attentive for any fresh remarks around waiting for Q1 wage data; trade has been in a narrow 133.88-134.19 range.
  • Gilt action has been in-fitting with European/US peers. Specifics light with no reaction to the latest RICS survey which remains pressured but to a lesser extent than forecast; 10yr yield has probed 4.00% to the upside, but is once again yet to convincingly breach with January’s 4.07% peak still elusive.

Commodities

  • Crude is modestly firmer in what has largely been a choppy session but within narrow parameters thus far. News flow has remained quiet in early European hours with participants on the lookout for geopolitical headline; Brent Apr sits above USD 79.50/bbl.
  • Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold largely horizontal and spot silver trimming some of yesterday’s losses; XAU back under its 50 DMA (USD 2,034.04/oz).
  • Contained trade across base metals with little reaction seen to the mostly soft Chinese inflation report overnight and ahead of the Chinese market closures for the Chinese New Year and Spring Festival.
  • Chevron’s 290k BPD El Segundo California refinery reports unplanned flaring
  • Iraq sets March Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at USD -0.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai average; Europe: USD -5.54/bbl vs dated Brent; North & South America: USD -1/bbl.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 224,000
  • 08:30: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.9m
  • 10:00: Dec. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0%
  • 10:00: Dec. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%

Central Bank speakers

  • 08:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Bloomberg TV
  • 12:05: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Economic Club of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a solid performance over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.82%) reaching an all-time high and closing just shy of the 5,000 mark at 4995.06. Indeed, at the intraday peak it had been even closer than that, with an intraday high of 4999.89. In the meantime, US Treasury yields saw a modest increase (+2.1bps) but there was strong demand at a 10yr auction that was the biggest ever, at $42bn, and this morning they’ve since come down by -2.5bps, so are back at 4.10%. Yet despite the decent performance in markets, yesterday also saw continued concerns about regional banks and commercial real estate, which means futures are still pricing a 21% chance that the Fed will cut rates next month. So even as several Fed officials have said they want to see more evidence on the inflation side, it’s clear that markets are still pricing in a risk that they may end up needing to move quicker than that.

Starting with the good news, yesterday marked another solid performance for US equities that saw both the S&P 500 (+0.82%) and the Dow Jones (+0.40%) close at an all-time high. That rally was supported by the Magnificent Seven (+1.72%) also posting a new all-time high, whilst the NASDAQ (+0.95%) closed at a two-year high. And unlike some recent sessions, the gains were fairly broad-based, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 up +0.39%, even if it continued to lag the overall index.

In terms of the latest on the regional banks, it was a volatile day, and New York Community Bancorp was initially down by -14.29% at its intraday low, before recovering to close +6.67% higher, so there were some pretty sizeable moves. The initial decline followed the overnight news that Moody’s had downgraded NYCB to Ba2 from Baa3, with the recovery later on boosted by a Bloomberg report that the company was exploring a sale of some of its assets. The broader KBW Regional Banking Index closed -0.14% lower, having traded nearly -2.5% down early on after trading in NYCB was briefly suspended.

Those fears about regional banks and commercial real estate had supported a rally in US Treasuries around the US open. However, that reversed later in the session, with the 10yr yield moderately up on the day (+2.1bps to 4.12%) despite a solid 10yr auction. That came as several Fed officials continued to stick to the general consensus from Chair Powell’s remarks last week. So overall, the message was that some sort of easing was likely to happen this year, but they still wanted more evidence that inflation was back at target before shifting towards rate cuts.

When it came to the details, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that he thought 2-3 cuts would be appropriate for 2024, and that “We’re not looking for better inflation data, we’re just looking for additional inflation data that is also at around this 2% level”. So he said that if they “see a few more months of that data, I think that will give us a lot of confidence.” Later on, Governor Kugler said that she was “pleased by the progress on inflation, and optimistic it will continue”. And after that, Boston Fed President Collins said that “it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year.” Finally, Richmond Fed President Barkin said he was “very supportive of being patient to get to where we need to get”.

Against that backdrop, neater-term pricing of Fed rate cuts was little changed yesterday. By the close, futures saw a 21% probability of a cut by March and 81% odds of a cut by the May meeting. For May, that pricing was down from nearly 90% early in the US session when fears about regional banks were at their peak, but is still up from its intraday low of 69% on Monday, shortly after the ISM services print came out. By contrast in Europe, investors continued to pare back the chance of imminent rate cuts from the ECB, with the chance of a cut at the next meeting in March down to just 11% this morning, the lowest it’s been since October. In turn, sovereign bonds in Europe saw a moderate selloff, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+3.0bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all moving higher. That echoed a weaker performance for European equities as well, where the STOXX 600 fell -0.23%, with the STOXX Banks Index down -1.44%.

Overnight in Asia there’s been several important headlines driving markets as well. First, there’ve been fresh signs of deflation in China, with consumer prices down -0.8% year-on-year in January (vs. -0.5% expected). That’s their fastest decline since 2009 around the global financial crisis, whilst producer prices were also down -2.5% (vs. -2.6% expected). Nevertheless, there’s been a mixed reaction among Chinese equities ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.71%) advancing, whereas the CSI 300 (+0.02%) has been broadly unchanged. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng has seen larger losses, with the index down -1.22%.

Separately, we also heard from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida, who said that even if they ended negative interest rates “ it is hard to imagine a path in which it would then keep raising the interest rate rapidly”. So that indicated a fairly dovish path, even if rates were hiked, which has helped the Nikkei (+2.18%) see a significant outperformance this morning. Yields on 10yr Japanese government bonds are also down -1.2bps.

Finally, there wasn’t much data out yesterday, but we did get German industrial production for December, which posted a -1.6% decline (vs. -0.5% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise from central banks, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Wunsch and Lane, the Fed’s Barkin, and the BoE’s Mann.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 05:59 AM

  • European equities are firmer, with outperformance in the AEX; US equity futures meander around the unchanged mark, though the RTY continues to underperform
  • Dollar is flat and pivots 104.00, JPY is softer after BoJ speak; Chinese CPI softer than expected
  • Bonds are modestly weaker with specifics light into a US 30yr auction
  • Crude is firmer in what has been a choppy session for the complex; XAU edging higher, albeit with gains capped
  • Looking ahead, US IJC, US Wholesale Inventory, Japanese M2 Money Supply, ECB Economic Bulletin, Banxico Policy Announcement, Comments from BoE’s Dhingra, Mann, ECB’s Elderson, Lane, Fed’s Barkin, RBA’s Bullock, Supply from the US, Earnings from Take-Two, Philip Morris & ConocoPhillips.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.4%), began the session on a firmer footing and have extended modesty thereafter. The AEX is the European outperformer, led by post-earnings strength in Unilever (+2.9%), ArcelorMittal (+2.6%) and Adyen (+16%).
  • European sectors are mixed; Food Beverage & Tobacco is lifted by strength in British American Tobacco (+7.5%) post-earning. Healthcare is hampered by losses in AstraZeneca (-2.3%).
  • US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C, RTY -0.3%) are mixed; the ES and NQ are within contained levels and meandering around the unchanged mark, whilst the RTY is softer, as the index continues the prior day’s underperformance. Disney (+6%) reported a mixed set of results though did boost its cash dividend by 50%.
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from British American Tobacco, AstraZeneca, Unilever, Siemens, Maersk & more.
  • Click here for more details.

FX

  • Contained trade for the USD thus far within tight 103.95-104.16 parameters which near enough matches yesterday’s range; 100DMA provides resistance at 104.18.
  • The EUR is steady vs. the USD with recent hawkish comments from Schnabel providing support after Tuesday’s 1.0722 YTD trough. Upside resistance comes via 100DMA at 1.0785 ahead of the round 1.08 mark.
  • JPY the slight underperformer across the majors following dovish BoJ commentary overnight. USD/JPY topped out around the YTD peak of 148.89. CPI revisions tomorrow or CPI next week could provide the next inflection point.
  • Antipodeans are both out of favour vs. the USD with AUD marginally more so. (Relatively) hawkish RBA unable to reverse downtrend for AUD/USD absent an economic recovery in China; currently holding above its YTD trough at 0.6486.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1063 vs exp. 7.1911 (prev. 7.1049).
  • CBRT Inflation Report: year-end 2024 forecast 36% (prev. 36%), 2025 14% (prev. 14%), 2026 9%
  • Click here for more details.

FIXED INCOME

  • USTs are trading heavy into the 30yr auction which has historically had a softer reception than the shorter-dated peers sold already this week, with clear and relatively pronounced steepening in play; holds above session trough at 111-00+.
  • Bunds are pressured given the above with specifics a touch light as newsflow has been dominated by earnings. Ahead, numerous ECB speakers but Chief Economist Lane will take centre stage where we are attentive for any fresh remarks around waiting for Q1 wage data; trade has been in a narrow 133.88-134.19 range.
  • Gilt action has been in-fitting with European/US peers. Specifics light with no reaction to the latest RICS survey which remains pressured but to a lesser extent than forecast; 10yr yield has probed 4.00% to the upside, but is once again yet to convincingly breach with January’s 4.07% peak still elusive.
  • Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude is modestly firmer in what has largely been a choppy session but within narrow parameters thus far. News flow has remained quiet in early European hours with participants on the lookout for geopolitical headline; Brent Apr sits above USD 79.50/bbl.
  • Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold largely horizontal and spot silver trimming some of yesterday’s losses; XAU back under its 50 DMA (USD 2,034.04/oz).
  • Contained trade across base metals with little reaction seen to the mostly soft Chinese inflation report overnight and ahead of the Chinese market closures for the Chinese New Year and Spring Festival.
  • Chevron’s 290k BPD El Segundo California refinery reports unplanned flaring
  • Iraq sets March Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at USD -0.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai average; Europe: USD -5.54/bbl vs dated Brent; North & South America: USD -1/bbl.
  • Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024: Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
  • Riksbank’s Jansson says inflationary pressures have continued to ease, makes it possible to cut earlier than thought in November.

DATA RECAP

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (Jan) -18 vs. Exp. -25 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen at the Financial Stability Oversight Council from 14:00GMT/09:00EST.

EARNINGS

  • Walt Disney Co (DIS) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.22 (exp. 0.99), Revenue 23.55bln (exp. 23.64bln). Disney boosts cash dividend by 50% and targets USD 3bln buyback in FY24. Disney+ subscribers 149.6mln (exp. 151.2mln). Entertainment revenue USD 9.98bln (exp. 10.52bln). Sports revenue USD 4.84bln (exp. 4.62bln). Experiences revenue USD 9.13bln (exp. 9.04bln). Sees FY Adj. EPS about USD 4.60 (exp. 4.27). CEO Iger said parks and resorts continue to do extremely well. Co. is to invest USD 1.5bln in Fortnite maker Epic Games. (Newswires) Shares +6.7% in pre-market trade
  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.48 (exp. 1.36), Revenue 8.02bln (exp. 7.87bln). Total payment volume USD 409.83bln (exp. 403.6bln). Transaction revenue USD 7.28bln (exp. 7.1bln). Active customer accounts 426mln (exp. 427.98mln). Payment transactions 6.80bln (exp. 6.60bln). Sees FY24 Adj. EPS USD 5.10 (exp. 5.49). Sees FY24 share repurchase of at least USD 5bln. (Newswires) Shares -8.9% in pre-market trade
  • AstraZeneca (AZN LN) – FY (USD): Revenue 45.8bln (exp. 45.7bln), Core EPS 7.26 (exp. 7.27), Dividend 2.90/shr (exp. 3.00/shr). Q4: Core EPS 1.45 (exp. 1.51), Revenue 12.02bln (exp. 11.94bln). (Newswires) Shares -2.7% in European trade
  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) – FY23 (GBP): Revenue 27.28bln (exp. 27.6bln, prev. 28.1bln Y/Y), EPS 375.6p (exp. 376.1p); takes a non-cash impairment charge of GBP 27.3bln, mainly related acquisition of US combustibles brands. (Newswires) Shares +7.5% in European trade
  • Siemens (SIE GY) – Q4 (EUR): Net Income 2.5bln (exp. 1.7bln). Industrial Business Profit 2.72bln (exp. 2.67bln). Revenue 18.4bln (exp. 18.8bln); Free cash flow rose sharply to EUR 1.0bln (prev. 86mln) driven by Industrial Business. Reaffirms FY24 outlook. (Siemens). Index Weightings: DAX 40: 8.8% (Second largest); Euro Stoxx 50: 3.4%; Stoxx 600: 1.1%. Shares +0.6% in European trade
  • Kering (KER FP) – FY (EUR): Revenue 19.56bln (exp. 19.59bln), Net 2.98bln (exp. 3.16bln), EBITDA 6.6bln (exp. 6.4bln), EPS 24.38 (exp. 25.60), Gucci Revenue 9.87bln (exp. 10.48bln), Yves St Laurent Revenue 3.18bln (prev. 3.3bln), Dividend 14/shr (exp. 12.89/shr). CFO: end-year trends were, overall, like the rest of the year but saw an improvement in Europe & US. Will continue to invest in brands in the long term, margins could be impacted more this year. FY24 Guidance: Recurring Operating Income to decline Y/Y, particularly within H1. (Newswires) Shares +3.7% in European trade
  • ArcelorMittal (MT NA) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 14.6bln (exp. 15.7bln). EBITDA 1.27bln (exp. 1.23bln). Net Income -2.97bln (exp. -1.82bln). Co. says Chinese economic growth “is expected to weaken”. Co. remains positive on the medium/long-term steel demand outlook. OUTLOOK “As anticipated, apparent demand conditions are now showing signs of improvement as the destocking phase reaches maturity.” “Despite continued headwinds to real demand, World ex-China apparent steel consumption (“ASC”) in 2024 is expected to grow by +3.0% to +4.0% as compared to 2023.” Shares +2.6% in European trade
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 11.7bln (exp. 11.46bln), EBITDA 0.839bln (exp. 1.13bln), EBIT -537mln (exp. -407mln), EPS -27 (exp. -42), Dividend 5.15/shr. Suspends buyback. High uncertainty remains around the duration & degree of Red Sea disruption, duration from one-quarter to FY reflected via the FY guidance ranges.. Shares -17% in European trade.

GEOPOLITICS

  • UN report stated North Korea further developed its nuclear weapons last year and UN sanctions monitors are investigating 58 suspected North Korean cyberattacks since 2017 that earned USD 3bln to help fund WMD development, according to Reuters.
  • North Korea terminated inter-Korean economic cooperation law whereby the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly voted to scrap all agreements signed with South Korea on promoting economic cooperation.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin (+1.4%) climbs back above USD 44k whilst Ethereum is marginally softer.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the fresh record levels on Wall St where the S&P 500 touched just shy of the 5k level, while participants digested recent earnings releases and Chinese inflation data ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.
  • ASX 200 benefitted from strength in tech and property, while the utilities sector outperformed amid a surge in AGL Energy after it reported a four-fold increase in its core net and returned to a statutory profit for H1.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed and approached closer to the 37,000 level as earnings drove price action and with SoftBank among the biggest gainers after shares in unit Arm Holdings surged by around 20% post-earnings.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech after Alibaba shares slumped on disappointing earnings, while the mainland gained despite the soft inflation data with sentiment upbeat heading into the Lunar New Year holidays and after the PBoC injected liquidity. China also recently replaced CSRC Chairman Yi Huiman with Wu Qing who is nicknamed the “Broker Butcher” for his crackdown on traders.
  • Nifty eventually weakened in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision where the central bank maintained its rates as expected and although there was a change in the vote split with MPC external member Varma the lone dissenter favouring a 25bps cut, the language from Governor Das remained hawkish in which he stated that monetary policy must be disinflationary and the MPC is to remain resolute in bringing inflation down to 4%.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • China Auto Industry Body official says battery vehicle sales were -37% in Jan M/M; far below market expectations, which is a main source of pressure on auto market growth.
  • US President Biden is poised to limit Americans’ personal data going to China with the administration planning to issue an order as soon as next week, according to Bloomberg.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said the BoJ won’t aggressively hike rates even after ending negative rates and noted that Japan’s real interest rate is in deeply negative territory and monetary conditions are very accommodative which is not expected to change in a big way. Furthermore, Uchida said uncertainty over the outlook remains high, but the likelihood of sustainably achieving our price target is gradually heightening and it is hard to imagine a path of continuous rate hikes.
  • RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained its stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 5 out of 6 members voted in favour of the rate decision and policy stance, with MPC external member Varma the lone dissenter who voted for a 25bps cut and for a change in stance to neutral. RBI Governor Das stated that growth in India is accelerating and inflation is on a downward trajectory in India, while he added that transmission of policy rate hikes is still underway and monetary policy must be disinflationary. Furthermore, Governor Das said inflation needs to align at 4% on a durable basis and the MPC is to remain resolute in bringing inflation down to 4%, as well as noted that monetary policy has to remain vigilant and that the last mile of disinflation is always the most challenging.
  • Chinese President Xi says China should enhance positive economic recovery and China is going to comprehensively deepen reforms, via Xinhua.
  • PBoC releases Q4 monetary policy report: vows to keep monetary policy prudent. Prudent policy will be flexible, precise and effective; will fend off risks in key areas

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese CPI MM (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%); CPI YY (Jan) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.3%); PPI YY (Jan) -2.5% vs. Exp. -2.6% (Prev. -2.7%)

2C ASIA AFFAIRS

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.21 PTS OR 1.28%  //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 203.72 PTS OR 1.27%         /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 743.36 OR 2.06%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.31%    /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1965  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2184 /Oil UP TO 74.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  DOWN AT 80.07/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

For the past 6 months, 5.5 tonnes of radioactive water is leaking out of the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant.. Not good.

(zerohedge)

5.5 Tons Of Radioactive Water Leaks Out Of Damaged Fukushima Nuclear Plant

WEDNESDAY, FEB 07, 2024 – 10:55 PM

Japan’s damaged Fukushima nuclear plant has been discharging batches of treated radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean for six months. A new report, however, has brought to light a newly discovered leak that caused tons of contaminated water to seep into the ground. 

Local media Kyodo News reports that on Wednesday morning – at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear power plant – workers found water leaking from an exhaust port on the outer wall of a high-temperature incinerator building. 

According to the plant operator, TEPCO, the contaminated water treatment equipment connected to the exhaust vent inside the building was being cleaned, and water containing radioactive materials leaked out.

TEPCO estimates that 5.5 tons of water, with over 22 billion becquerels of radioactive material, leaked into the soil outside the building. 

The leak brings to mind the large amounts of radioactive wastewater accumulated at the facility since the plant was damaged in 2011 by a massive earthquake and tsunami. Since August, TEPCO has been releasing treated radioactive water into the ocean, which is expected to take decades. 

Local fishing groups and neighboring countries, including China, have been concerned about the dischargers. Beijing has banned all imports of Japanese seafood. 

END

3 CHINA

CHINA/

China definitely deflating big time

(zerohedge)

China Double-Ds: Consumer Prices Suffer Worst Deflation Since GFC, Producer Price (Downside) Pressures Persist

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 09:40 AM

Overnight saw a Double-Deflation Day in China as both Consumer and Producer Prices continued to deflate (on a YoY basis), with the headline CPI deflation worsening and PPI deflation easing a little.

  • The consumer price index dropped 0.8% YoY in January – the weakest since September 2009 (and worse than economists’ expectations for a 0.5% decline).
  • The producer price index fell 2.5%, marking 16 straight months of deflation for factory-gate costs.

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.4%, slower than December and the weakest rise since June last year.

Pork prices dropped 17%, helping drag down food prices by 5.9%, which was the biggest decline on record in data back to 1994.

  • Food: -5.9% YoY in January (-18.1% mom annualized*) vs. -3.7% YoY in December.
  • Non-food: +0.4% YoY in January (-1.5% mom annualized*) vs. +0.5% YoY in December.

Year-over-year PPI inflation edged up to -2.5% YoY in January from -2.7% YoY in December, largely on a low base.

In month-over-month terms, PPI inflation fell to -0.7% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in January (vs. +1.6% in December).

  • PPI inflation in producer goods rose slightly to -3.0% YoY in January from -3.3% YoY in December, and
  • PPI inflation in consumer goods edged up to -1.1% YoY in January (vs. -1.2% YoY in December)

The continued deflation was partially due to seasonally weak demand in January vs. year-ago level due to later Lunar New Year holiday this year (10-17 February 2024 vs. 21-27 January 2023).

Of course, the deflation prompted more calls for action for Beijing:

“The CPI data today shows China faces persistent deflationary pressure,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd.

“China needs to take actions quickly and aggressively to avoid the risk of deflationary expectation to be entrenched among consumers.”

“The report drives home a message – the economy needs aggressive policy steps to boost demand and shake confidence out of its torpor. The People’s Bank of China has signaled that fighting deflation is a priority and looks set to deliver more stimulus,” said Bloomberg economist Eric Zhu

“The question is, how forceful it will be – and whether banks pass on the easing in the form of more and cheaper credit.”

But, as Goldman warned, the disinflationary pressure from ongoing property downturn points to a delayed reflation path for China, and as RaboBank noted yesterday, PBOC easing policy further (or even fiscal stimulus), probably can’t happen until the Fed starts to ease.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE/USA

‘Non, Merci Joe!’ – France Is (Was) The Biggest Importer Of US LNG

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 02:45 AM

On January 26, President Joe Biden paused all approvals of new U.S. LNG export plans following increased protests from climate activists after the country became the world’s top exporter of the commodity this past year.

This pause will be used to conduct a review that will “look at the economic and environmental impacts of projects seeking approval to export LNG to Europe and Asia,” according to reporting by Reuters.

Even in the first year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which kicked off the scramble for other sources of natural gas, many European economies turned to the United States for their gas supply.

Infographic: Which Country Imports The Most LNG From the U.S.? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

France, for example, led the pack in 2022 with a share of roughly 15 percent of all exported LNG, as data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows.

The United Kingdom and Spain were also responsible for almost double-digit export shares.

European countries combined received around 69 percent of all the LNG the United States exported via ship in 2022.

This shift of trade flows came at the expense of other partners since the volume of exported LNG increased at a slower pace between 2021 and 2022 compared to the years prior, amounting to about 3.9 trillion cubic meters in 2022 versus 3.6 trillion in the year before.

India and South Korea, for example, received 38 and 35 percent less LNG in volume, respectively, than in 2021.

The Biden administration’s move to halt talks on as-of-now unapproved or future applications for the export of LNG has sparked ire among the opposition, which claimed this decision could send mixed signals to the United States allies in Europe dependent on this export flow.

On February 6, U.S. lawmakers led by House Republicans held the first of two hearings in the House Energy, Climate and Grid Security Subcommittee. The second hearing is scheduled to take place today, Thursday, February 8.

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/

IDF: Intense fighting in Khan Yunis, number of Oct. 7 terrorists killed

Soldiers from several different units of the IDF worked in conjunction to arrest and eliminate terrorists and strike terrorist infrastructure.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFEBRUARY 8, 2024 10:00Updated: FEBRUARY 8, 2024 10:01

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-785769

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?

The IDF is fighting in western Khan Yunis in addition to the northern and central parts of the Gaza Strip, and has successfully arrested and eliminated terrorists who participated in the October 7 massacre, according to the IDF.

Combat soldiers from the Commando Unit are continuing to engage in intense fighting within western Khan Yunis. Since Wednesday, the unit arrested dozens of suspects of terrorism, including two who were involved in the October 7 attacks.

Maglan unit fighters killed three terrorists, two at close range and one on a school roof via gunfire.

IDF soldiers raided terrorist infrastructure and located an RPG launcher, diving equipment, and ammunition in the process, according to the IDF spokesperson. 

Within the same area of the Gaza Strip, IDF Paratroopers and soldiers from the Givati Brigade identified and eliminated more than 20 terrorists while striking terrorist targets.

IDF troops patrolling inside the Gaza Strip (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
IDF troops patrolling inside the Gaza Strip (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

Eliminating terrorist squads throughout the Gaza Strip

Combat soldiers from the 401st Brigade eliminated 10 terrorists over multiple encounters in the northern Gaza Strip. On Wednesday, terrorists fired an RPG anti-tank missile at IDF artillery, leading to an Air Force fighter jet eliminating the squadron of terrorists.

The Nahal Brigade, operating in the central Gaza Strip, also killed four Hamas-affiliated terrorists, in addition to critical Hamas military infrastructure. Advertisement

Unit 414 soldiers also identified a terrorist squad attempting to transfer technological tools to Hamas. They were eliminated via drone attack, according to the IDF.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS/EGYPT

Egypt said concerned Gazans may storm border when IDF widens Rafah operation

A shepherd herds sheep near the border fence with Egypt in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip near a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians, on January 24, 2024 (AFP)

A spokesperson for Egypt’s foreign ministry says Cairo is concerned at the potential for a mass effort by Gazans to escape across the border when the Israel Defense Forces expands its operations in Rafah, Channel 12 reports.

Images in recent weeks circulating on social media have shown Egypt apparently fortifying its defenses at the border, with additional barbed wire and walls.

More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are sheltering in the Rafah area, amid a spiraling humanitarian crisis.

Israel is continuing to hunt Hamas’s leadership in the southern Strip, believed to be hiding deep within the vast tunnel network the terror group dug under the Strip, which military officials assess runs for hundreds of miles.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that the Israeli military will reach and dismantle Hamas’s Rafah Brigade, just as it is currently working to do to Hamas’s battalions in the Khan Younis area.

War erupted between Israel and Hamas with the terror group’s October 7 massacre. Some 3,000 Hamas-led terrorists slaughtered 1,200 people in southern Israel that day — most of them civilians, massacred amid brutal atrocities — and seized 253 hostages.

Vowing to destroy the terror group, Israel launched a wide-scale military campaign in Gaza.

Agencies contributed to this report.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS//

Report: Israel open to allowing Sinwar to go into exile in return for all hostages, end of Hamas’s Gaza rule

By LAZAR BERMAN 

FOLLOW

Today, 12:56 pm

Yahya Sinwar (C), Hamas’s Gaza Strip chief, waves to supporters in Gaza City, on April 14, 2023. (MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)

Israel is open to allowing Hamas leader and October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar to go into exile in exchange for the release of all hostages and the end of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip, NBC reports.

Citing six “Israeli officials and senior advisers,” NBC says the plan has been discussed since November.

“We don’t mind if [Sinwar] will leave like Arafat left Lebanon,” a senior adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells NBC, referring to PLO leader Yasser Arafat being allowed to sail from Beirut to Tunis in 1982. “We will allow it to happen as long as all of the hostages are released.”

Israel had previously pledged that all the leaders of the Hamas terror group in Gaza would be killed or captured.

Israel reportedly told US negotiators in Paris last week that it has a list of six Hamas leaders, including Sinwar and senior military Mohamed Deif, that it wants to see out of the Gaza Strip. NBC says the plan never reached Hamas, because the terror group has already said it would not countenance exile.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS/

Commander from elite Hamas unit being interrogated by Shin Bet urges comrades to surrender

Today, 5:07 pm

Muhammad Nasser Suleiman Abu Namer is interrogated by the Shin Bet in a photo released on February 8, 2024. (Shin Bet)

The Shin Bet has released footage from the interrogation of a commander in Hamas’s elite Nukhba unit who calls on operatives in the terror group to surrender.

“I advise everyone to surrender, because your fate otherwise is death,” Muhammad Nasser Suleiman Abu Namer is heard saying.

Abu Namer was arrested by Shin Bet and IDF fighters deep in a tunnel under the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis.

The suspect is later heard saying that he was arrested with two other Hamas fighters but that they did not try to resist when the IDF busted through the door of their tunnel.

“We made a decision that we don’t want to fight and as soon as the army comes we will turn ourselves in,” says Abu Namer.

“We sat in the room, we put all the weapons outside the room… We sat and waited. When the army arrived, we raised our hands and surrendered.”

end

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

Anti-tank missile from Lebanon hits Metula home; reports of Israeli jets over Beirut

Videos circulating on social media apparently show Israeli jets flying low over Beirut.

The Kan public broadcaster notes that the reports of Israeli aerial activity over the Lebanese capital come as General Hassan Awde is named as the new chief of staff of Lebanon’s military.

The Hezbollah terror group has fired multiple rounds of anti-tank missiles from southern Lebanon toward northern Israel today, injuring three soldiers and hitting a house.

Nafiseh Kohnavard

@nafisehkBBC

Israeli jets overhead again in Beirut… View from Achrafieh. Only 2 days before the assassination of Hamas’s senior leader Arouri in Dahieh, we saw exactly the same scene

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END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON

Another major Hezbollah operative killed in a drone attack

Hezbollah operative killed in alleged Israeli strike said to have helped Iran establish air defense system in Syria

Today, 5:35 pm

and

The scene of a strike on a vehicle in the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on February 8, 2024. (Screen capture/X)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/reports-two-hezbollah-operatives-killed-in-apparent-drone-strike-on-their-vehicle-in-south-lebanon

Arabic media reports that one of the Hezbollah operatives killed earlier this afternoon in an alleged Israeli drone strike on a car traveling in the southern Lebanese town of Nabatieh was Abbas Al-Debs.

Al-Debs was tied to the Islamic Revoolutionary Guard Corps and was helping Iran set up air defenses in Syria, Arabic media reports.

Army Radio reports that Al-Debs was also the commander of the area from which anti-tank fire was launched at the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona.

It says the strike was carried out in response to that tank fire striking an IDF base nearby and seriously injuring one of the soldiers there.

END

Hezbollah military commander killed in Israeli drone strike in Lebanon

Hezbollah military commander Abbas al Dabs, known by his nickname Hajj Abdullah, was killed in the strike, Sky News Arabia reported.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

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A man operates a drone over olive trees in Nabatieh area, Lebanon October 25, 2018 (photo credit: REUTERS/JAMAL SAIDI)
A man operates a drone over olive trees in Nabatieh area, Lebanon October 25, 2018(photo credit: REUTERS/JAMAL SAIDI)

Clouds of smoke were seen in southern Lebanon on Thursday in what local media reported as an airstrike targeting a vehicle in the region of Nabatieh.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-02-08/live-updates-785756

Lebanese and Palestinian reports claimed the attack was carried out by an Israeli drone. At least three casualties were reported in the strike.

דיווח בלבנון על תקיפת כטב”ם לעבר רכב בעיר נבטיה בדרום לבנון, צפונית לליטני@OmerShahar123 pic.twitter.com/HcIFdXMK6D

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Hezbollah military commander Abbas al Dabs, known by his nickname Hajj Abdullah, was killed in the strike, Sky News Arabia reported.

/ISRAEL//SYRIA

END

LEBANON/ISRAEL

Lebanese officials say efforts intensify to bring calm to Lebanon-Israel border

Alongside Gaza truce talks, foreign diplomats said putting forward proposals that would see Hezbollah pull back from border and Lebanese army deploy along boundary

By AP and TOI STAFF

Today, 2:10 pm

Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, February 8, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)

BEIRUT — Foreign diplomats have put forward proposals to bring calm to the volatile Lebanon-Israel border in parallel with the ongoing Gaza truce negotiations, according to officials Wednesday. This includes a pullback by the Hezbollah terror group from the frontier and the deployment of thousands of additional Lebanese army troops.

The proposal put forward by European diplomats would be based on the “partial implementation” of the UN Security Council resolution that ended a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, two Lebanese political officials and a Lebanese diplomat based in Europe told The Associated Press.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose details of the talks.

Israel has publicly insisted on a full implementation of the resolution, meaning that Hezbollah has to move its fighters north of the Litani River, which in some spots is more than 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border.

Iran-backed Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, has refused to be part of the discussions while the Israel-Hamas war is ongoing, but once a ceasefire is in place, the group said it was open to moving its forces away from the border by a few miles in exchange for concessions by Israel over 13 disputed border areas, one of the officials familiar with the talks said Wednesday.

Iran’s regional militia allies have said that once a ceasefire in Gaza comes into effect, all attacks by Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would stop.

View of the northern town of Shlomi, largely evacuated of civilians amid Hezbollah attacks, January 17, 2024 (Yossi Aloni/Flash90)

Britain and France’s top diplomats, among others, have recently visited Beirut amid concerns the Israel-Hamas war could expand to Lebanon where exchanges of fire have taken place on an almost daily basis between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters for nearly four months.

Hezbollah-led forces have been attacking Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis since October 8, a day after its ally Hamas launched its October 7 massacre, killing 1,200 people across northern Israel and abducting 253 people of all ages. Hezbollah says its attacks are to support Gaza amid the war Hamas triggered through its attack.

On Thursday, three Israeli soldiers were hurt in a Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces responded by hitting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon.

The violence along the Lebanon-Israel border has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides. Israel has said it cannot tolerate Hezbollah forces along its border, where they could launch a murderous attack on civilians in similar vein to Hamas’s October 7 onslaught.

It has issued increasingly stern warnings that Hezbollah must pull back from the border or face far-reaching military consequences.

Last Thursday, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron arrived in Lebanon with a plan he said would include Britain training Lebanese army forces to carry out more security work in the border region.

France’s Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne was in Beirut on Tuesday with a proposal to ease the tensions. He warned that the border situation was “very concerning” and that Israel was serious in its threats against Lebanon, one of the Lebanese officials said.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, left, meets with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon, February 6, 2024. (Bilal Hussein/AP)

Sejourne ‘s suggestion called for a bigger role for the Lebanese army in the border area and for negotiations regarding 13 points along the border that have been under dispute since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, according to the Lebanese diplomat based in Europe.

The diplomat said there was “initial understanding” regarding seven of the 13 areas.

Apart from those, one of the officials familiar with the regional talks said Hezbollah would demand that Israel withdraw from the Lebanese part of the town of Ghajar, which is split in half by the border.

He said the proposal on the table calls for Hezbollah to pull back 7 kilometers (about 4 miles) from the border — the range of the anti-tank missiles the group has been using most frequently during the clashes — and for the deployment of 12,000 Lebanese army troops in the area.

He added that many members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force live in the border area but the group had no “fixed bases” there.

Top Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to go to war in Lebanon after the campaign to root out Hamas in Gaza is over, with the aim of driving Hezbollah away from the border in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006. They have increasingly warned that if the international community does not push Hezbollah — which, like Hamas, is sworn to Israel’s destruction — away from the border through diplomatic means, Israel will take action.

Senior Advisor to US President Joe Biden Amos Hochstein, left, meets with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, January 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, was in Israel over the weekend. He reported progress in talks concerning Hezbollah’s pullback from the border area, according to Israeli media. Hochstein successfully mediated a maritime border deal between Lebanon and Israel in 2022.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli leaders on Wednesday after Hamas put forward a detailed plan for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, which Israeli leaders indicated was unacceptable.

ISRAEL/WEST BANK

END

SAUDI ARABIA/WEST BANK, EGYPT/UAE/QATAR

Riyadh to host ministerial confab to advance united Arab stance for post-war Gaza

5 participating countries seek to up ceasefire pressure by leveraging their willingness to contribute to Gaza’s revival and integrate Israel into region if Palestinian state advanced

Jacob Magid

By JACOB MAGID FOLLOWToday, 2:24 am

Foreign Ministers from five Arab and Islamic countries From left, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Palestine Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi arrive to the Diaoyutai state guesthouse to meet with their Chinese Counterpart Wang Yi, in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 20, 2023. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

Foreign Ministers from five Arab and Islamic countries From left, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Palestine Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi arrive to the Diaoyutai state guesthouse to meet with their Chinese Counterpart Wang Yi, in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 20, 2023. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

Saudi Arabia is hosting a summit of foreign ministers from five countries in the region on Thursday in order to advance a united Arab stance regarding the war in Gaza as well as political initiatives for when the fighting ends, two senior Arab diplomats revealed to The Times of Israel.

The Arab ministers are slated to discuss efforts to expand pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, leveraging their willingness to take part in the Strip’s rehabilitation after the war in addition to further integrating Israel into the region, on the condition that Jerusalem agrees to take steps creating an irreversible pathway to an eventual Palestinian state, the diplomas said.

The gathering is the latest example of the united front that Israel’s Arab partners and potential allies are building, one that is increasingly at odds with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which wants the war to drag on months longer until “total victory” is secured. On the other hand, the grouping of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia are offering Israel a partnership that could be used to more effectively combat Iran, which Netanyahu has long sought.

The meeting — which has not yet been publicized — will also be attended by Hussein al-Sheikh, a top aide to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas; as Riyadh continues to expand its cooperation with Ramallah, assuaging concerns that Saudi Arabia will abandon the Palestinian cause while working to boost its regional and global stature, the two diplomats said.

Joining Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Sheikh will be the top diplomats from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, according to the diplomats.

The summit follows several covert meetings Riyadh organized over the past month for top national security officials from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the PA.

Amid the Israel-Hamas war, Palestinians walk between the remains of destroyed buildings on the main road of Gaza City on January 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Hajjar)

Amid the Israel-Hamas war, Palestinians walk between the remains of destroyed buildings on the main road of Gaza City on January 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Hajjar)

Those meetings focused on security matters, such as whether the Arab states would be willing to provide troops in order to help secure Gaza after the war. One of the diplomats told The Times of Israel that participants expressed willingness to cooperate with such an endeavor for an interim period if it is publicly requested by the PA — as opposed to Israel — and if it is part of a broader, time-bound initiative aimed at eventually establishing a Palestinian state.

Thursday’s meeting will have less of a security focus, instead revolving more around issues such as significantly reforming the PA so that it is better suited to return to governing Gaza and coordinating the steps countries are willing to take to boost ties with Israel, namely Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in talks with the Biden administration about normalizing relations with Jerusalem.

Saudi Arabia notably chose to expand the participants beyond the countries that joined the earlier security-focused meetings, adding Qatar and the UAE.

While Qatar is often left out of such alignments given its support for Islamist governments, the decision to include Doha is a recognition of its influence over Hamas, which participating countries appreciate is essential for post-war planning, one of the senior Arab diplomats said, highlighting how Qatar hosts Hamas’s political leaders abroad.

The Arab countries participating in Thursday’s meeting don’t want Hamas to be included in the political leadership of Gaza after the war, but they do believe that the terror group will manage to survive in some form and that a level of its acquiescence will be needed in order to successfully advance the rehabilitation of Gaza, the diplomat explained.

The diplomat recognized that this forecast is utterly rejected by Netanyahu, who argued Wednesday that the only way that Israel will be able to boost ties with its Arab neighbors is by succeeding in its mission of completely defeating Hamas. The premier suggested that anything less would allow for the terror group’s revival and demonstrate an exploitable level of weakness after Hamas massacred some 1,200 Israelis on October 7 and took another 253 hostage.

IDF troops are seen operating in the Gaza Strip in this handout photo cleared for publication on February 6, 2024. (IDF)

Vowing to eradicate Hamas, Israel launched a massive military offensive in Gaza, which has killed ore than 27,300 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. That figure cannot be independently verified and includes some 10,000 Hamas terrorists Israel says it has killed in battle. Israel also says it killed some 1,000 gunmen inside Israel on October 7.

But four months into the war, areas in northern Gaza which the IDF managed to clear of Hamas fighters early on in the war have begun to see their resurgence in recent days, highlighting the difficult task Israel faces in defeating the terror group, particularly without cooperation from its Arab allies in filling the vacuum with a more moderate power.

Regardless, much of the success of the Arab initiative hinges on the deal that Qatar, Egypt and the US are trying to mediate between Israel and Hamas that would see the remaining 136 hostages released in exchange for an extended pause.

The US is aiming to utilize the pause to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire and advance its regional initiatives. However, the hostage talks hit another snag on Tuesday after Hamas responded to the framework proposed by the mediators with conditions that both Israel and the US indicated were non-starters, though, Blinken said Wednesday that space still remained for the sides to move forward.

The vision that the Arab countries are seeking to advance at Thursday’s meeting has been championed by the Biden administration for months, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken again laid it out for Israelis during his visit to Tel Aviv on Wednesday.

“You can see the path forward for Israel and for the entire region with integration, with normalization, with security assurances [for Israel], with the pathway to a Palestinian state. That entirely changes the equation and the future for the better for Israelis, for Arabs, for Palestinians, and in so doing isolates groups like Hamas, isolates countries like Iran, that want a very different future,” Blinken said during a press conference after his meetings with Israeli leaders.

“It will be up to Israelis to decide what they want to do… All that we can do is to show what the possibilities are… The alternative right now looks like an endless cycle of violence and destruction and despair. We know where the better path lies, but I don’t minimize in any way the very difficult decisions that would need to be made by all concerned to travel down that path,” he added.

While Netanyahu made Saudi normalization one of his top agenda items upon returning to the premiership in December 2022, he has all but rejected the idea that it be conditioned on the creation of a pathway to a Palestinian state.

The prime minister has stressed that Israel must maintain security control over the entire area west of the Jordan River, which would leave whatever Palestinian state that could be created in that space as less than fully sovereign. Abbas and other PA officials have long ago accepted that their future state would be demilitarized, so there might not necessarily be a contradiction there.

However, the current makeup of Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right elements who are even more adversarial toward the Palestinians than he is, pushing for mass displacement of Gaza’s residents and calling to dissolve the PA. Determined to keep his house in order, the premier has avoided even holding discussions regarding post-war strategy let alone agreeing to concessions that would see Palestinian sovereignty boosted.

As Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi, third from right, speaks to reporters, United Arab Emirates Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Ebrahim Al Hashimy, left, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, second from left, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki, third from left, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, second from right, and Secretary-General of the League of Arab States Ahmed Aboul Gheit listen on Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Like a Saudi normalization deal, the type of involvement in rebuilding Gaza that the Arab states are prepared to offer is something that Netanyahu has long desired but now seems poised to reject, given the conditions under which that assistance is being offered.

Thursday’s meeting comes as the US seeks to advance a similar initiative with its Middle Eastern partners aimed at coalescing the region around a united policy for managing Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war.

The US is advancing a “contact group” with Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Turkey, which Washington hopes will allow for ideas to be raised and advanced in a single forum, a Biden administration official and a senior Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel last week.

Each country has been tasked with picking a representative on the contact group, with Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf being the US delegate, according to the administration official. The forum is expected to begin holding largely virtual working group meetings next month.

The Saudi normalization effort again made headlines on Wednesday after Riyadh issued a stern statement Tuesday rejecting what it claimed was US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby’s suggestion that the Gulf kingdom is prepared to forge ties with Israel before there is a ceasefire in Gaza and without progress toward Palestinian statehood.

Kirby was asked during a press briefing earlier in the day whether securing a hostage deal and a Saudi normalization agreement are part of the same US effort. Kirby responded that they’re two distinct tracks, and noted that the US has held “positive” talks with Riyadh on the matter both before and after October 7.

Reporters raise their hands to ask questions as Foreign Ministers, from left, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Palestinian Minister of Foreign Affairs Riyad al-Maliki, Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Jordan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi, and Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry, attend a news conference about the Israel-Hamas war, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Saudi officials have publicly acknowledged their willingness to normalize relations with Israel, even after October 7, but they’ve stressed — as has US Secretary of State Antony Blinken — that no deal can be reached until there is a ceasefire in Gaza and that it must include the creation of an irreversible pathway toward a Palestinian state.

Either because Kirby’s separation of the hostage talks from the normalization negotiations could be understood to mean that Riyadh would be prepared to establish relations before there is a truce, or because the White House spokesman was overly optimistic in his characterization of the talks, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry decided to call him out.

“The kingdom has communicated its firm position to the US administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip,” the statement added.

While Saudi officials in recent months have moved away from their long-held position — enshrined in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative — that a fully implemented two-state solution is a precondition to normalization with Israel, they hadn’t yet specified the kind of provisional steps they would accept in exchange for an agreement with Israel, sufficing with statements regarding improving Palestinian livelihood or creating a pathway toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, front left, attends a meeting with Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Secretary General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Hussein al-Sheikh in Amman, Jordan, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (Jonathan Ernst/Pool photo via AP)

Recognition of a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 lines appeared to be the most detailed stipulation that Riyadh has offered in recent months. While Netanyahu has all but rejected a two-state solution and a large percentage of Israelis would oppose a framework based on the pre-1967 lines, the Saudi statement notably refrained from specifically demanding that Israel be the one to recognize an independent Palestinian state, instead placing the onus on members of the UN Security Council.

The statement was issued just one day after Blinken met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, in a possible indication that the sit-down did not go well.

Still, by directing the demand for Palestinian state recognition at Security Council members, such as the US, rather than at Israel, Riyadh can be seen as presenting Washington with a way around the Netanyahu government’s rejection of a two-state solution.

It also came less than a week after UK Foreign Minister David Cameron said his government was considering recognizing an independent Palestinian state. Days later, the Axios news site reported that the US was weighing the same step after having long rejected it on the basis that the move should come after Israel and the Palestinians have agreed to a two-state solution.

Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

END

USA/IRAQ/IRANIAN BACKED MILITIA

My goodness: the uSA did something right! It was the USA that killed two Iran backed militia leaders in Baghdad

(zerohedge)

Biden Pulls A Trump: Targeted Drone Assassination Kills Iran-Backed Militia Leaders In Baghdad

WEDNESDAY, FEB 07, 2024 – 04:55 PM

Did President Biden just pull a Trump? It appears so. There’s been an assassination by drone strike of a high-ranking member of the Iran-linked militant group Kataib Hezbollah in Baghdad Wednesday night. The operation appears similar to the 2020 killing of Gen. Soleimani by drone strike on his convoy outside Baghdad’s airport.

Several blasts were heard in the Iraqi capital after which an SUV was seen engulfed in a large blaze. A security official has been quoted in one prominent regional newspaper as saying, “The car belonged to the Popular Mobilization Forces,” in reference to the pro-Iran Shia militia which works closely in tandem with Iraq’s national army. “At least two PMF leaders were inside the car,” the security source said.

The high-ranking militia member is being initially identified as Wissam Mohammed Al Saiedi according to early reports. A Kataib Hezbollah associated Telegram channel has since mourned “the engineer of the missiles of the Iraqi resistance.” An initial statement from the Baghdad police indicated “A car was on fire in Baghdad’s eastern neighborhood of Al Mashtal.” Additionally the statement said “it was probably hit by a missile fired from a drone. We are investigating.”

Israeli media is reporting:

“Two officials with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq said that one of those killed was Wissam Mohammed “Abu Bakr” al—Saadi, the commander in charge of Kataib Hezbollah’s operations in Syria.”

Within hours later, the Pentagon has owned up to the attack with the following Central Command statement: 

At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region.

There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people. We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety.

Initial unverified photos appeared to show the remains of a hellfire missile that smashed into the vehicle, interestingly with cash scattered amid the burning wreckage…

Jason Brodsky

@JasonMBrodsky

Images circulating of the aftermath of the drone strike on a car in Baghdad, #Iraq purporting to show remnants of an American hellfire missile. #IRGCterrorists

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Very quickly after the car was hit, and word spread of the targeted strike, Iran-linked Telegram channels reportedly urged Iraqi men to head to the US Embassy in the Green Zone to protest, so there remains a likelihood that there could be unrest there overnight, though the complex is heavily secured. 

This new assassination follows on the heels of last Friday major airstrikes against ‘Iran-linked’ targets in Syria and Iraq, which appears to have not thwarted the Iranian proxies, given sporadic attacks on US bases in the region have continued. The US has sought to retaliate and reestablish deterrence for the prior killing of three Army soldiers at Tower 22 base in Jordan by drone attack.

Analysts have continued speculating over the identifies of the deceased militia leaders…

Pro-#IRGCterrorists Telegram accounts are reporting two senior commanders of Kataib #Hezbollah, Abu Baqir Al-Saadi and Arkan Al-Alawi, were killed tonight in the targeted drone strike tonight in #Iraq. The U.S. assessed Kataib Hezbollah was likely behind the deaths of three Americans on January 28. Also, an identification card found near the vehicle tonight:

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This fresh incident is also an indicator that the Biden White House is also launching a fresh campaign of targeted assassinations of militia leadership. But as some have observed, the Popular Mobilization Forces are essentially part of the national forces, and work hand and glove. 

Geopolitical blog Moon of Alabama writes, “Kataib Hezbollah is an Iraqi PMF militia which are part of the official Iraqi security forces under the Ministry of Interior. Any attack on Kataib is an attack on the state of Iraq.” Likely this is going to increase calls within Iraqi parliament to force all remaining American advisers and troops out of the country.

end

USA//SYRIA/IRANIAN PROXIES

‘Swarm of suicide drones’ attacks US army base in Syria in retaliation for Baghdad airstrike

The attack has been linked to the retaliatory US airstrikes against Iranian-aligned groups and their positions.

By YUVAL BARNEAFEBRUARY 8, 2024 00:05

Updated: FEBRUARY 8, 2024 04:55

US forces set up a new base in Manbij, Syria May 8, 2018 (photo credit: REUTERS/RODI SAID)
US forces set up a new base in Manbij, Syria May 8, 2018(photo credit: REUTERS/RODI SAID)

Explosions have been reported near a US army base in Syria, by the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese media network Al Mayadeen, on Wednesday.

The American base in the Al-Omar oil field in the Kurdish-controlled region of northeastern Syria, close to the city of Deir ez-Zor, American troops have been present here since at least 2017.

The base was attacked by a “swarm of suicide drones” according to Egypt-based Bayan-gate news and is the second attack of its kind this week against US bases in the region.

The attack has been linked to the retaliatory US airstrikes against Iranian-aligned groups and their positions, by Arab media.

The American airstrikes were a response to the three American servicemembers killed at a base in Jordan, near the Syrian border earlier this week.

People carry the coffin of an Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah fighter, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Babil Province, during the funeral in Baghdad, Iraq, December 26, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)
People carry the coffin of an Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah fighter, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Babil Province, during the funeral in Baghdad, Iraq, December 26, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

Retaliating to retaliation

Today’s attack comes only a few hours after a suspected American assassination of a Kataib Hezbollah commander in Baghdad.

Kataib Hezbollah has been closely involved in the current round of escalation with multiple attacks against US positions in the Middle East, they are suspected to have been directly behind the deadly attack in Jordan.Advertisement

Kataib Hezbollah renounced attacks on American bases after it was revealed they had killed three US servicemembers.

They have been accused of attacking US bases in coordination with other Iran-aligned forces such as Yemen’s Houthis.

Kataib Hezbollah is one of several groups operating in coordination to support Iranian foreign policy goals in Iraq, they operate under the collective title of the “Islamic resistance in Iraq”, with the collective group having launched multiple drone attacks on Israel as well as on American bases in Iraq and Syria.

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq has been closely linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, which was targeted in American airstrikes.

END

USA/HOUTHIS

US strikes 2 Houthi mobile anti-ship cruise missiles ready to fire at ships in Red Sea

By REUTERS and TOI STAFF

US Central Command forces conducted self-defense strikes against two Houthi mobile anti-ship cruise missiles prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea, a statement says.

“Later that day, at 11:30 p.m. (Sanaa time), CENTCOM forces conducted a second strike against a Houthi mobile land attack cruise missile prepared to launch,” the statement adds.

The Houthis have attacked shipping routes in the Red Sea as part of what they say is their response to Israel’s campaign against the Palestinian terrorists, who are — like the Houthis — backed by Iran.

The Houthi attacks have prompted the US and Britain to launch waves of strikes on rebel-held areas in Yemen

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/


Zelensky Fires Top General, Appoints New Commander, In Major Shake-Up

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 11:43 AM

It’s official: as we predicted even starting last month Ukraine’s top general and commander of the armed forces is now out.

President Zelensky has confirmed that Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny has been dismissed, in what appears part of a broader shake-up of top military and government leadership. Zelensky said it is “time for renewal”.

Zelenskiy said Thursday he met with his army chief and that while it’s time for significant “changes” – Zaluzhny should remain “on his team”.

“We discussed what renewal the Armed Forces of Ukraine need. We also discussed who could be in the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The time for this renewal is now,” Zelensky announced in an English statement on X and Telegram.

Zaluzhnyi had just before the announcement confirmed he had an “important and serious conversation” with Zelensky which focused on changing battlefield tactics and strategy.

The now former top commander has huge popularity among military ranks and especially far-right, ultranationalist and neo-Nazi elements. Will his firing result in mutiny or rebellion among some units? 

Very quickly on the heels of news of Zaluzhny’s dismissal, Ukraine announced the appointment of Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new commander-in-chief the armed forces. Until now, Gen. Syrskyi was Ukraine’s ground forces commander.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially announced that he appointed Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Image

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A new military leadership team is expected to take over as of today.

developing…

end

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, January 29-February 5, 2024

Musicians in the US (3), Brazil, Argentina, UK (2), Croatia, Italy, Ghana, Iran, Turkey; actors in US (2), Dominica, Argentina, UK (2), Kenya, India, China; journalists in US (5), Poland; & more

MARK CRISPIN MILLERFEB 7
 
READ IN APP
 

United States:

United States: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-513

News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

Canada: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-cee

Mexico:

Mexico, Dominican Republic, Dominica, Jamaica, Colombia, Suriname, Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-263

Brazil:

United Kingdom and Ireland: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-61f

Germany:

France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Belarus, Croatia and Spain: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-a0b

Italy:

Italy: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-27d

Turkey:

Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-a6b

India, Pakistan, China, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/markcrispinmiller/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-d16

India:

Indonesia:

Link

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Jihad by illegal immigration INTO America! Biden INC. the Obama-Biden cartel are engaging in jihad against America using illegal immigration! No sane nation does this unless you seek your OWN destruc-

-tion! This is jihad, holy war by immigration, Obama-Biden will not stop unless we vote them out, & all the demonic republicans & democrats doing this! There will be no America left, just AmericaSTAN

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 7
 
READ IN APP
 
No SANE nation has done & is doing what America is doing! We have a sitting POTUS, Biden INC., the cartel of Biden INC. that has INVADED America, Biden INVADED America with islamists, rapists,
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER·FEB 6
No SANE nation has done & is doing what America is doing! We have a sitting POTUS, Biden INC., the cartel of Biden INC. that has INVADED America, Biden INVADED America with islamists, rapists,
Biden et al. know what they are doing and have done, they have lit the funeral pyres of Americans… I say a Trump POTUS or whomever, I want the best person of all the clown car cast of characters running now, the best among the stench, but POTUS Trump must declare that he will deport all, man, woman, child illegal who entered America the last 30 years…all…
Read full story

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News
Covid Shots Killed More People Than They Saved, Top Study FindsA new peer-reviewed study has concluded that Covid mRNA shots have ended up killing more people than they saved.READ MORE
Moderna Scientists Admit mRNA Shots Carry Toxicity RisksScientists with pharmaceutical giant Moderna have admitted that the Covid mRNA shots produced by Big Pharma carry risks of toxicity.READ MORE
Illegal Migrant Encounters Already Exceed 1 Million since October, CBP Data ShowsThe latest figures from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) show that the federal agency has already recorded over one million encounters with illegal migrants since October 1, when fiscal year 2024 began.READ MORE
Florida Grand Jury Releases First Report on Criminal Investigation into Covid ShotsLast year, the Florida Supreme Court granted Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ request to impanel a statewide grand jury to investigate “criminal or wrongful activity” related to Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE
Biden Admits Senate Border Bill Is Precursor to Amnesty for All Illegal AliensDemocrat President Joe Biden has admitted that the border bill he negotiated with the Senate is just a precursor to his goal of giving amnesty to all of the illegal aliens already residing in the United States. The Senate bill, from Sens. James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), has been met with widespread backlash after it …READ MORE
ABC Cuts Mic of Trump-Backing Senator Mid-Interview for Calling Out Unelected ‘Bureaucrats in Government’Republican Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), known for his support of President Donald Trump, was cut off mid-interview by ABC News while trying to explain his calls for gutting the administrative state.READ MORE
Putin: ‘Biden Is Not Running the United States – Just a Facade’Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly declared that the United States is being run behind the scenes by an unelected deep state.READ MORE
Nikki Haley Requests Secret Service Protection Due to Alleged ThreatsRepublican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has asked for Secret Service protection for her 2024 campaign, according to reports.READ MORE
60% of Voters Believe Biden’s Mentally Unfit and Media Is Covering It Up, Poll ShowsMost Americans now believe that Democrat President Joe Biden’s mental and physical health has declined to the point where he is no longer fit to serve, a new poll has revealed.READ MORE
Tucker Carlson Announces Putin Interview, Confirms RumorsFormer Fox News host Tucker Carlson has finally confirmed the rumors and announced his highly anticipated interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin.READ MORE
Biden Admin Pressured Amazon to Suppress Anti-Vax ‘Propaganda’Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration pressured retail giant Amazon to suppress any information that expressed skepticism about COVID-19 mRNA vaccinesREAD MORE
The Number of Annual Illegal Border Crossings Now Exceeds American BirthsSo many foreign nationals are now pouring over Democrat President Joe Biden’s open Southern Border that the number of illegal crossings each year now exceeds the total of annual American births.READ MORE
Biden Admin Funding Censorship Network to Flag ‘Misinformation’ in Private MessagesDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration is funding several entities that are building a network to censor so-called “misinformation” found in the private messages of the American people.READ MORE
EVOL NEWS:

NEWS ADDICT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
Farmers Defeat WEF Globalists, Force EU to Scrap ‘Net Zero’Protesting farmers in Europe have just dealt a crushing defeat to World Economic Forum globalists by forcing the European Union (EU) to scrap the WEF’s “Net Zero” agenda.READ THE FULL REPORT
Top Pathologist Issues Warning on ‘Grave Dangers’ of mRNA VaccinesA world-renowned pathologist has issued a warning about the “grave dangers” of being injected with Covid mRNA vaccines. Shocking numbers of sudden deaths and severe disease have been reported since the rollout of the COVID-19 gene-based vaccines. Early on, several doctors and scientists warned that the COVID-19 vaccines would lead to several complications including autoimmune disease, blood clots, strokes, and …READ THE FULL REPORT
Ronna McDaniel to Step Down as RNC Chair — Here’s Who Trump Is Backing as Her SuccessorRonna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, has informed former President Donald J. Trump that she intends to step down as RNC Chair shortly after the South Carolina primary on February 24, according to the New York Times.READ THE FULL REPORT
Four Republican Votes Cause House Impeachment of DHS Secretary Mayorkas to FailFour Republican Congressmen voted against a historic impeachment effort against Homeland Secretary Alejandro Majorkas, temporarily scuttling the effort to impeach the first Cabinet Secretary in over 150 years.READ THE FULL REPORT
Prominent Democrat Official Charged over Mail-In Ballot Fraud Scheme During 2022 ElectionA Democrat operative and ex-president of the Atlantic City council has been arrested on charges of allegedly orchestrating a mail-in ballot fraud scheme in the New Jersey city.READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

“Boy, Markets Do Not Want To Sober Up When They Read The News”

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 10:25 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

I’m going to repeat an old joke I last made years ago in the Daily. In one Laurel and Hardy film, the two are broke and agree to share a last drink at the bar. Stan goes first – and finishes the whole glass in one gulp. Ollie, aghast, asks what happened. Stan replies, “Well, my half was on the bottom!” That’s where we are now in markets. To paraphrase how Bloomberg put it this morning, as long as we get January March May June(?), or even second-half 2024 *deep* rate cuts from the Fed, markets will remain drunk. And, boy, do they not want to sober up when they read the news.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boy-do-markets-not-want-sober-when-they-read-news

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

In China, the ‘bullish’ meeting between Xi Jinping and stock regulators saw the head of the CSRC Yi Huiman fired… and replaced by Wu Qing, known as “the broker butcher”. The regular upbeat voices on Chinese stocks are now saying this is a good sign, because… well… because. Meanwhile, we wait for actual news on how the government is going to prop this, and other, markets up. This is as Chinese CPI just dropped at its fastest pace since 2009 at -0.8% y-o-y vs. -0.5% expected, while PPI -2.5% vs. -2.7% last month. This increases the pressure on the PBOC to ease policy further, or for fiscal stimulus, or both, which put downwards pressure on CNY. Yet, as noted yesterday, that probably can’t happen until the Fed starts to ease.

On which, New York Community Bank yo-yoed lower and named a new chair, as if that will help. Yet right after Japan, Europe is belatedly realizing ‘Hey, we bought CRE paper too!’, and as in 2008, what starts in the US may not end there, and while the Fed can acronym its way out of trouble, if needed, rather than cutting rates, the BOJ and ECB can’t as these assets aren’t under their purview: “Our CRE crisis, your problem,” to paraphrase. It’s perhaps not a surprise the BOJ’s Uchida just hinted their long-awaited rate hike ahead is going to be one and done, rather than an actual hiking cycle: really, why bother?

While this was all happening, US stocks hit a new high –albeit on a very narrow base: but then again, that’s the actual US economy too!– and more Fed speakers said rate cuts are only going to happen towards the end of the year. That’s still at the bottom of the glass, just. But it’s also a long, painful wait for many in the US, and even more outside it.

Even looking ahead to H2 rate cuts one has to think about the 2024 election in terms of fiscal goodies thrown to voters (like $78bn tax cuts and student loan write-offs). On that front, yesterday saw Nikki Haley comprehensively lose a Republican Nevada primary where Trump was not on the ballot to ‘none of the above’, which says something about the gaps between what big political donors and actual voters want.

Today, the Supreme Court will rule on Colorado’s efforts to get former President Trump off the 2024 ballot for “insurrection or rebellion”: a Wall Street Journal editorial calls for a 9-0 vote to strike it down. Within days we may then see how the Supreme Court feels about the D.C. appeals court ruling over Trump’s January 6 court case, which struck down his claim to immunity: as the Journal op-eds separately, while Trump’s defence is “legal sophistry… the sweeping nature of the ruling means that it also risks weakening the office of the Presidency, so perhaps at least four Supreme Court Justices will be interested in having the last word.” In short, more twists and turns to come(?)

Internationally, after losing his own constitutional battle to his High Court, Israeli PM Netanyahu just called Hamas’s ceasefire demands –Israeli withdrawal, leaving it in power– “delusional”, and stated “absolute victory” is close. The Saudis, who just made clear an irreversible path to a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as capital is required for normalisation of relations with Israel, are leading a 5-state summit, including Palestinian representatives, to thrash out a united Arab position on a ceasefire, rebuilding Gaza, and how to provide security, with Hamas not seen as having any official future role. For now, this means the war will go on, and reach the border town of Rafah; and Egypt will be both nervous and furious. And the Houthis will also escalate their attacks on global shipping.

On which, see this simple explanation of why the Red Sea crisis means higher inflation: if you have 1,000 of product X in a shipping container, and the price of moving them jumps from $1,500 to $4,500, as on some routes now, then each widget needs to add $3 to its price, arguably more including higher insurance. If it’s a product sold for $30 wholesale, that’s a 10% price bump, as least; if $60, it’s 5%; and if $100, it’s still 3%. Then the retailer is likely to pass it on, and maybe add a little more on top where they can – which we have just seen they often can and do. Then, possibly, local competitors realise that they can raise prices a little too. And if the Red Sea crisis really isn’t going away, perhaps firms rush to stock up all at once before prices rise further, and a deeper supply-demand imbalance is seen. We also have specific Red Sea pressures on diesel, where the spare maritime carrying capacity to go round Africa vs. Suez is just not available, as it is with container cargo for now.

This is to say that if you are looking for deep rate cuts at the ‘bottom’ of the year, because you don’t get them now, and are drunk on those lovely asset-price bubbles, you are betting the Red Sea situation is resolved soon.

So, yes, we aren’t even halfway through February, let alone the year. Lots can happen, and will. But if you are confidently drinking Ollie’s share of the soda to get to yours, just be aware of how often he ends up shouting, “That’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into!”   

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING

Red Sea Crisis Sends Maersk Shares Crashing As Outlook Darkens, Buybacks Suspended

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Shares of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S in Copenhagen plunged on Thursday. This decline occurred after the world’s second-largest shipping company announced fourth-quarter earnings and guidance that fell short of analysts’ forecasts, alongside the cancellation of its stock repurchase program.

Vincent Clerc, chief executive of Maersk, wrote in a statement, “While the Red Sea crisis has caused immediate capacity constraints and a temporary increase in rates, eventually, the oversupply in shipping capacity will lead to price pressure and impact our results.”

Maersk said, “Given the heightened uncertainty, the Board of Directors has decided to immediately suspend the share buy-back programme, with a re-initiation to be reviewed once market conditions in Ocean have settled.” 

Shares in Copenhagen-listed Maersk sank as much as 17% in trading on Thursday. For the week, the shares are on track to record the largest decline since the first week of November. 

The company reported fourth-quarter profit below expectations, with EBITDA for the quarter sliding to $839 million versus the $1.04 billion anticipated by analysts.

Here’s a snapshot of fourth-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

  • Ebitda $839 million, -87% y/y, estimate $1.04 billion
  • Ocean Ebitda $196 million, -97% y/y, estimate $419.1 million
  • Terminals Ebitda $303 million, +5.2% y/y, estimate $320.3 million
  • Towage & Maritime Services Ebitda $88 million, +7.3% y/y, estimate $71 million
  • Logistics & Services Ebitda $285 million, -13% y/y, estimate $338.4 million
  • Ocean Ebitda margin 2.7% vs. 45.4% y/y, estimate 5.58%
  • Logistics & Services Ebitda margin 8% vs. 8.5% y/y, estimate 9.21%
  • Terminals Ebitda margin 29.7%, estimate 33.2% 
  • Ebit loss $537 million vs. profit $5.12 billion y/y, estimate loss $454.3 million
  • Revenue $11.74 billion, -34% y/y, estimate $11.54 billion 
  • Ocean revenue $7.18 billion, -46% y/y, estimate $6.95 billion 
  • Logistics & Services revenue $3.54 billion, -8.2% y/y, estimate $3.59 billion
  • Terminals revenue $1.02 billion, +2% y/y, estimate $962.3 million
  • Towage & Maritime Services Revenue $571 million, +0.5% y/y, estimate $553 million
  • Average loaded freight rate ($/FFE) $1,925, -50% y/y, estimate $1,897

Here are the 2023 full-year results:

  • Ebitda $9.59 billion, -74% y/y, estimate $9.84 billion
  • Revenue $51.07 billion, -37% y/y, estimate $50.94 billion
  • Net income $3.91 billion, -87% y/y, estimate $3.5 billion
  • Dividend per share DKK515, estimate DKK542.82
  • Ebit $3.93 billion, -87% y/y, estimate $3.64 billion

Looking forward, Maersk anticipates “significant oversupply challenges” in container shipping throughout 2024, with the impact extending out as far as 2026. The company forecasts that global container trade will see an estimated growth of between 2.5% and 4.5% this year. 

Here’s more on the 2024 outlook: 

  • Sees global container trade +2.5% to +4.5%
  • Sees underlying Ebitda $1 billion to $6 billion, estimate $6.41 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Sees underlying Ebit loss $5 billion to $0, estimate loss $1.03 billion

“The outlook for 2024 appears even more challenging than 2023 in the Ocean division, as oversupply of vessels peaks and Maersk’s contract exposure provides them limited benefit from spot rate increases following Red Sea diversions,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note to clients this morning.

Maersk, like many other major shipping companies, has diverted containership sailings from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope following two months of Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels. This has pressured shippers by raising container, fuel, and insurance costs, among many other costs, as well as adding 1-2 weeks to the journey. 

On Monday, the OECD issued a warning in a report, stating that diverting around the Red Sea is expected to increase inflation. This comes at a moment when central banks worldwide are fighting the inflation monster. 

Separately, CEO Clerc joined Bloomberg TV in an interview where he warned the Red Sea crisis is worsening: 

“The amount or the range of weapons that are being used for these attacks is expanding and there is no clear line of sight to when and how the international community will be able to mobilize itself and guarantee safe passage for.”

And on Wednesday, Japanese shipping giant Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. told Bloomberg that the crisis in the Red Sea could last upwards of “six months or one year.” 

Remember, the container shipping industry is a bellwether of global trade. 

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

PAKISTAN

MAYHEM!

Over 35 Killed In Pakistan Election Mayhem, Cell Service Suspended, As Imran Khan Languishes In Prison

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 10:40 AM

Voting has ended in Pakistan’s general elections which have been among its most tense in modern times, as popular former prime minister Imran Khan sits in a jail cell—his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) banned and with members forced to run as independents—and as violence has erupted in various corners of the country.

Throughout the day the government and security services took the drastic and extreme step of suspending mobile services, and at least nine people, among them two children and six security officials, were killed in attacks by armed groups. The day prior, scores were killed and wounded in election-related terror attacks and bombings, including instances of hand grenades thrown at polling stations.

The Ministry of Interior has posted on X Thursday morning (local time) that in response to “recent incidents of terrorism” in the country, cellular networks were cut in order “to maintain the law and order situation and deal with possible threats.”

NetBlocks has also confirmed there were internet outages in various provinces following “months of digital censorship targeting the political opposition.” The military, or essentially the Pakistani deep state, is widely seen as ultimately the influencer of the election outcome, and is also broadly viewed as behind the persecution of Khan and his being barred from office.

As Bloomberg reviews of how things have long worked in Pakistan, a country which also cooperates deeply with Western intelligence services, especially the CIA in counter-terror operations…

Pakistan’s military has directly ruled the nuclear-armed nation for longer than any civilian government. While it has been 15 years since Pervez Musharraf stepped down as the last military ruler, the Inter-Services Intelligence, which oversees internal security, plays a significant role in foreign policy, security and the economy.

The generals’ backing is seen as crucial for civilian leaders to gain power, and to hold on to it. All prime ministers including Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif benefited from their support to win elections, and lost power when they clashed with the army.

Wednesday into Thursday witnessed significant incidents of violence, including in Dera Ismail Khan district, where five police officers were gunned down after a bomb was set off. Additionally unknown attackers threw hand grenades at a couple of polling stations in Balochistan province.

Wednesday blasts in Balochistan had the highest casualty rate of the last 48 hours, with the Islamic State reportedly claiming responsibility, according to Time:

The grenades, which reportedly did not injure anyone, followed lethal explosions in Balochistan Wednesday. One blast occurred in the Pishin district, killing 18 individuals, CNN reported, and injuring 24, according to Jan Achakzai, the province’s Minister for Information and Public Relations. Another blast occurred in Qilla Saifullhah, killing 12 people, according to Achakzai. He warned in an X post that the death toll could rise and said the government had revisited security protocols.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has remained confident his party will win. His Pakistan Muslim League party is widely believed to be favored and poised to take an outright majority in parliament.

Nawaz Sharif said that “Once this election is over, we will sit down and decide who is PM (prime minister) and who is CM (chief minister)” of Punjab province. Vote counting is underway, after in some areas a two hour vote extension was given by emergency order. 

Sharif’s archrival, former PM Khan is meanwhile languishing in jail after a series of convictions on ‘corruption’. More convictions were slapped on him a mere days before the election, leaving his supporters outraged and claiming a military-orchestrated conspiracy.

Several armed attacks on candidates’ offices & polling stations have occurred over the last 48 hours, but there are also some early celebrations among PTI supporters…

Mario Nawfal

@MarioNawfal

🇵🇰IMRAN KHAN’S PARTY CELEBRATES EARLY POLLING RESULTS “Congrats, Pakistan, we won the first part of the day. Now, let’s not leave polling stations so we can support polling agents. Victory is near, Inshallah!” Official PTI

0:02 / 0:05

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1h

🇵🇰BREAKDOWN OF THE ELECTIONS IN PAKISTAN 128 million people are registered to vote in today’s elections. They will elect 266 federal representatives across five different provinces. Source: Al Jazeera twitter.com/MarioNawfal/st…

Show more

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85.6K Views

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

He’s popularly seen as a rare politician not afraid to take on and criticize the military, but he was removed from power in an April 2022 no-confidence vote, subsequently slapped with over 150 legal cases against him.

His PTI party has not only been forced to run as independent on the ballot, but even their party symbol, a cricket bat, has been banned from the election. His supporters say the military is essentially trying to ‘disappear’ Khan from all public life and from ever returning politically.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0753 DOWN  .0022 

USA/ YEN 149.27 UP 1.189  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2598 DOWN  .0032

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3479 UP .0019 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 36.21 PTS OR  1.28%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 203.82 PTS OR 1.27% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.31%   // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:    ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 203.82 PTS OR 1.27%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.21 PTS OR 1.28%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.31% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 743.36 OR 2.06% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2024.90

silver:$22.29

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 104.18  UP 27 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.074% UP 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.696% DOWN 2 AND  1//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.280 UP 7  in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.933 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3560 UP 6 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0742 DOWN   0.0014 or 14  basis points

USA/Japan: 149.42 UP 1.336 OR YEN DOWN 134 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2608 DOWN .0019  OR 19  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS pts  to 1.3467

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (DOWN) …7.1968

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2149)

TURKISH LIRA:  30.61 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.696…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.169% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.382 UP 7  in basis points  /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.450 UP 3 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2030.15

SILVER AT 11;30: 22.48

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 34.54 PTS OR 0.45%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 35.28 PTS OR 0.21%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 48.11 PTS OR 0.63%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 21.10 PTS OR 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 105.54 PTS OR 0.34%

WTI Oil price  75.28   12: EST

Brent Oil:  80.90  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  90.85;   ROUBLE UP 0 AND  42//100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3560 UP 6  BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.099 UP 9 BASIS POINTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0777  UP .0002      OR 2 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2618 DOWN .0007   or 7 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.098  UP 6 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.697%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.30 UP 1.214//YEN DOWN 121  BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3456 DOWN .0007 CDN dollar UP 7   basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 76.57

Brent OIL:  81.73

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6  BASIS pts to 4.155%  

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 4.351%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT  4.452%

USA dollar index: 104.01 UP 9  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.59 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  90.83 UP 0  AND  42/100 roubles

GOLD  2033.95 3:30 PM

SILVER: 22.40 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 48.97 PTS OR 0.13%

NASDAQ UP 28.09 PTS OR 0.16%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.79 DOWN .04 PTS OR 0.31%

GLD: $188,33 DOWN 0.17 OR 0.09%

SLV/ $20.33 UP .32 OR 1.57%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Big-Tech Skids, Bitcoin & Black Gold Bid

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Jobless claims just won’t quit and were enough to send Treasury yields higher today after ARM and DIS earnings’ blast-offs last night.

Rate-cut expectations drifted lower still (hawkish)…

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks hit a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 hit 5000.4 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

…thanks to a miraculous sudden huge buy program in the last few seconds…

Source: Bloomberg

No, ‘banking crisis 2.0’ is not over. NYCB dumped today…

…and the overall Regional Bank index went sideways…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw small caps rip higher while the rest of the majors trod water (at a very marginal new high for S&P)…

This was the second-best daily RTY-NDX outperformance in two months, which happened to occur at a critical resistance level…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s been quite a wild ride this week for the RTY-NDX pair – whipsawing from one side to the other… PRESUMABLY tomorrow brings a big Nasdaq outperformance day…

Source: Bloomberg

ARM was up 50% (yes 5…0)… lol

Source: Bloomberg

DIS rallied over 11% on the day, to one-year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

MAG7 stocks drifted very modestly lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid a massive short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher on the day (despite a strong 30Y auction), with the belly (5-10Y) underperforming (2Y +2.5bps, 10Y +6bps, 30Y +4bps).

Source: Bloomberg

Even though the 30Y auction was solid, yields pushed up to two week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above $45,000 today…

Source: Bloomberg

…after yet another strong day of net inflows to spot bitcoin ETFs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and bitcoin notably outperformed ethereum today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar jumped higher on the strong claims data…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day practically unchanged (despite the dollar strength), after diving to $2020 and finding support…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged today with WTI back above $76, erasing the drop at the end of last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, all eyes remain on tomorrow’s CPI revisions and next Tuesday’s January CPI print. With S&P vol skews at near-record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…what could go wrong?

END

MORNING  TRADING//

end

II USA DATA

I would not put any faith in the jobless numbers. All contrived

(zerohedge)

Despite Mass Layoffs, US Jobless Claims Declined Last Week

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 08:37 AM

First things first, here’s what’s been reported – in the real world labor market – in 2024…

1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Roomba: 31% of workforce
3. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
4. LA Times: 20% of workforce
5. Spotify: 17% of workforce
6. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
7. Xerox: 15% of workforce
8. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
9. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
10. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
11. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
12: Snap: 10% of workforce
13. eBay: 9% of workforce
14. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
15. Paypal: 7% of workforce
16. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
17. Docusign: 6% of workforce
18. UPS: 2% of workforce
19. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
20. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
21. Pixar: 1,300 employees

And here’s the government-supplied statistics…

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped from 227k to 218k (below the 220k exp). On an NSA basis, claims tumbled even more…

Source: Bloomberg

We assume there was some impact in here from the ice storms, but still, Oregon, Ohio, and California saw the biggest declines in claims while Missouri and Texas saw the biggest increase…

Continuing jobless claims also decline (of course, it’s an election year) from 1.894mm to 1.871mm…

Source: Bloomberg

We give the Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin the last word:

“I am cautious about accuracy of numbers around the turn of the year.”

Cautious is one word…

-END

–

Money-Market Fund Assets Hit New Record High As Fed’s Bank-Bailout Facility Holds At $165BN

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 04:40 PM

Despite a soaring stock market, money-market funds saw $16.7BN of inflows last week, to a new record high of $6.018 TN in assets under management as yields rose this week after Powell poured cold water on rate-cut hopes.

Source: Bloomberg

But, but, but, ‘money on the sidelines’ and stuff?

In a breakdown for the week to Feb. 7, government funds – which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt – saw assets rise to $4.89 trillion, a $3.71 billion increase. 

Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets rise to $1 trillion, a $12.4 billion increase.

Institutional funds saw inflows ($3.1BN) for the 2nd straight week, and Retail funds continued their unbroken streak of inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

After a sizable $47BN decline the prior week, The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $1.2BN last week…

Source: Bloomberg

With the Fed’s free-money arb now done and dusted (red rectangle below), The Fed’s bank bailout facility declined a tiny $369 Million, hovering above $165BN still…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s Reverse Repo facility saw further liquidity drawn down, on target for a March meeting with the x-axis…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed rose on the week but US equity market cap remains notably decoupled still…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the market is increasingly convinced now that the economy is awesome (cough govt debt cough) and that ‘we don’t need no stinking rate-cuts’ to keep the dream alive. We shall see what reality has to say about that in March when the BTFP facility expires and banks need to find $160BN in funding on their ‘worth less than par; assets…

Reminder, bonds are trading higher in yield, lower in price, since the SVB crisis (which means what for the banks holdings?)

TUCKER CARLSON..

III  USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

REGIONAL BANKS

Troubles begin one month from now!

(Bent)

Are Bank Runs Back On The Menu?

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 12:40 PM

Authored by Marty Bent via TFTC.io,

Don’t look now, but it seems that the regional banking crisis is beginning to reemerge after almost a year of hibernation.

Last February brought with it the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, First Regional and Signature Bank. At the time, the crisis was quickly spreading and the Fed was forced to step in with an emergency facility known as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which allowed banks to turn in underwater treasuries in return for cash equivalent to the par value of the treasuries at a very low interest rate. The BTFP is structured as a 1-year loan and Jerome Powell and company announced that they will not be extending the BTFP due to the fact that banks were taking the cash and dumping it into higher yielding facilities at the Fed to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity that the BTFP opened up, which hindered the Fed’s balance sheet.

This is your life on central planning.

Even when the lender of last resort steps in to help out, the banks will seize on the opportunity to take advantage of any opportunity that arises to achieve their yield targets. Even if that means biting the hand that fed you. A real life manifestation of the ouroboros destroying itself.

With the BTFP set to come to a halt next month it seems that markets are taking a gander at the markets, noticing that the 10-Year US Treasury yield is hovering a bit higher than it was when the banks started failing last year, the 30-Year is holding steady well above where it was this time last year, noticing that companies are laying off their employees en masse, and beginning to come to the realization that the problem that led to the failure of the banks last year has not been solved at all.

If anything, it has been exacerbated and the ultimate consequences of more than a decade of ZIRP followed by a rapid increase in interest rates are quickly approaching our doorstep.

The sector of the economy that seems to be on the top of everyone’s mind is commercial real estate. The combination of economic lockdowns driving people out of their expensive office buildings and into their home offices and a precipitous increase in the cost of capital has created a perfect storm. Companies aren’t getting funded at the rate they were just three years ago, which mean there are less potential tenants for the owners of commercial real estate properties. The companies who were able to secure funding are rapidly cutting costs by laying people off to stay afloat. And people who see the writing on the wall and are beginning to jump ship are selling their commercial real estate positions for pennies on the dollar.

The banks who have material commercial real estate exposure are in for a rough time and it seems like the dominoes are beginning to fall with New York Community Bank leading the way. I would expect this crisis to begin to unravel rather quickly as we get closer to Spring. Nothing made me more certain of this than Janet Yellen’s comments on Capitol Hill that sounded eerily similar to the reassurance Ben Bernanke gave markets in 2007 when he was asked about the systemic nature of the subprime mortgage market.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Square profile picture

Bloomberg TV

@BloombergTV

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she is concerned about commercial real estate but thinks the risk is manageable during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee https://trib.al/8KRPHhL

1:46

·

24.7K Views

Head for the hills, freaks! The counter-signal has been initiated.

In all seriousness, if a banking crisis is about to materialize it is better to begin preparing now as opposed when it is abundantly clear that you are in the midst of a banking crisis. If you are an individual with a good amount of savings that is wholly exposed to the banking system, it is probably a good idea to buy some bitcoin and get it in a wallet that you have control over. Our friends at Unchained can help you secure your bitcoin while eliminating single points of failure in your custody set up. If you are a business in the same boat, I would say that it is an imperative that you lock up three to six months worth of runway in bitcoin so that you can make payroll if shit hits the fan. Unchained can help you out too.

Who knows what’s going to happen at the end of the day, but it’s better to be prepared and wrong about a crisis than it is to be wrong about this being a nothingburger and unprepared.

I’m sure if the crisis does reemerge in earnest the Fed and the Treasury will step in with extreme measures.

However, if we have learned anything over the last two decades it’s that these extreme measures have extreme unintended consequences and the further they kick the can down the road the more extreme everything gets.

The question is how much more road is left before the can crashes into the wall?

END

The bailout fund advances hugely to $165. billion and the Reverse Repo level is at 535 billion dollars

as I indicated to you yesterday.

(zerohedge)

Money-Market Fund Assets Hit New Record High As Fed’s Bank-Bailout Facility Holds At $165BN

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 04:40 PM

Despite a soaring stock market, money-market funds saw $16.7BN of inflows last week, to a new record high of $6.018 TN in assets under management as yields rose this week after Powell poured cold water on rate-cut hopes.

Source: Bloomberg

But, but, but, ‘money on the sidelines’ and stuff?

In a breakdown for the week to Feb. 7, government funds – which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt – saw assets rise to $4.89 trillion, a $3.71 billion increase. 

Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets rise to $1 trillion, a $12.4 billion increase.

Institutional funds saw inflows ($3.1BN) for the 2nd straight week, and Retail funds continued their unbroken streak of inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

After a sizable $47BN decline the prior week, The Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $1.2BN last week…

Source: Bloomberg

With the Fed’s free-money arb now done and dusted (red rectangle below), The Fed’s bank bailout facility declined a tiny $369 Million, hovering above $165BN still…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s Reverse Repo facility saw further liquidity drawn down, on target for a March meeting with the x-axis…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed rose on the week but US equity market cap remains notably decoupled still…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the market is increasingly convinced now that the economy is awesome (cough govt debt cough) and that ‘we don’t need no stinking rate-cuts’ to keep the dream alive. We shall see what reality has to say about that in March when the BTFP facility expires and banks need to find $160BN in funding on their ‘worth less than par; assets…

Reminder, bonds are trading higher in yield, lower in price, since the SVB crisis (which means what for the banks holdings?)

END

NEW YORK

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Defends $53 Million ‘Cash For Migrants’ Program

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 06:55 AM

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has defended a controversial $53 million ‘cash for migrants’ program that drew fire from many – including rapper 50 Cent.

Adams ‘clarified’ that the taxpayer funds will be in the form of prepaid food cards, not American Express  credit cards – which he says will improve the efficiency of food distribution and reduce waste (somehow). Adams claims that it will ultimately cut costs by 20%, vs. say, not handing money to people in the country illegally.

And 50 Cent bought it – posting on social media that he and Adams had spoken, and that the Mayor “appeared to be on point, and on top of things.”

The prepaid cards will be around $350 per migrant, per month – about 40% more than New York’s SNAP recipients receive. 

Mayor Adams’s defense of the program coincided with the annual “Tin Cup Day,” where mayors present budgetary requests to the state legislature. Highlighting the exponential increase in the city’s shelter population since taking office, Adams appealed for greater state support, urging the state to cover 50% of the costs associated with addressing the migrant crisis in NYC.

The magnitude of the migrant crisis in New York City is substantial, with projected expenditures exceeding $10.6 billion by summer 2025. While the state has pledged approximately $2 billion to mitigate the crisis in the current budget cycle, Mayor Adams emphasized that this commitment falls short, covering only one-third of the city’s expenses related to supporting migrants. –Sara Carter

Over 173,000 migrants have been through NYC’s migrant intake system since the spring of 2022, according to Adams’ office.

END

Bidenomics Failing Farmers As Expected Incomes Crash The Most Since 2006

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 02:25 PM

A new report from the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that US farmers are poised for another year of financial misery, facing the most significant decline in incomes in almost two decades as crop prices slide and US dominance in ag exports wanes. 

USDA forecasts net farm income, a broad measure of profits, to plunge $39.8 billion, or 25.5%, to $116.1 billion in 2024. This follows a forecasted decrease of $29.7 billion, or 16%, from 2022 to $155.9 billion in 2023. 

If the estimate holds, farmers face the largest income drop since 2006 and back-to-back years of financial pain. 

“With this expected decline, net farm income in 2024 would be 1.7 percent below its 20-year average (2003–22) of $118.2 billion and 40.9 percent below the record high in 2022 in inflation-adjusted dollars,” USDA wrote in the report. 

Simultaneously, farmers are witnessing a rapid decline in their leading role in the global grain market. Decades of corn export dominance were shredded by Brazil last year. 

Bidenomics is failing blue-collar workers who put food on America’s table.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

END

SWAMP STORIES

‘Too Old And Feeble’: No Charges For Biden Despite ‘Willful’ Mishandling Of Docs, National Security Risk

THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 03:48 PM

The latest evidence of a two-tiered justice system and Democrats apparently above the law comes in a report released Thursday afternoon by the special counsel investigating President Biden’s mismanagement of classified documents, which decided against charging the president. 

“Our investigation uncovered evidence that President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen,” according to a special counsel’s final report. 

In the report, special counsel Robert Hur wrote, “Biden will likely present himself to the jury, as he did during his interview with our office, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” 

WTF!

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Let me get this straight.

Biden is too cognitively impaired to be charged with a crime, but he’s not too cognitively impaired to be the Commander-in-Chief? https://t.co/XIS03okNi3— Wesley Hunt (@WesleyHuntTX) February 8, 2024

Despite the president’s mishandling of classified documents about foreign policy and the military and pages and pages of entries about national security, the special counsel concluded: 

“We conclude that no criminal charges are warranted in this matter.

“We reach the same conclusion even if Department of Justice policy did not foreclose criminal charges against a sitting president.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

This report was released one year after Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Hur as the special counsel to oversee the investigation into classified documents discovered at the president’s office and Deleware’s home in late 2022.

Wait, what?

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In his interview with the special counsel, Biden “did not remember when he was vice president.” pic.twitter.com/wTrNTXEBUk— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 8, 2024

Earlier this week, The Washington Post frontran the report by saying the Biden Justice Department does not plan to pursue criminal charges against the president. 

Meanwhile, former President Trump was charged with 40 criminal counts, including obstruction of justice and willful retention of classified documents. 

Remember, Biden is 81. Democrats play the ole’ man card. 

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It’s not incompetence or crime.

Instead, you are either ageist, or sexist, or racist if you demand accountability. https://t.co/Zy10g8s6Lb— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 8, 2024

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Hillary gets a new legal standard.

Biden gets a new legal standard.

Trump and J6’ers get a new legal standard.

This is what real power looks like. Curse it all you like, you may as well piss in the wind.— Cernovich (@Cernovich) February 8, 2024

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BIDEN (confused): “Roe v. Word — Ward!” pic.twitter.com/GKxQp0EUzR— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 8, 2024

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

BIDEN: “I said I’m gonna be a president for everybody, whether you live in a red state or a green state!”

Does he mean red state or a *blue* state? pic.twitter.com/yLJJGlaFQP— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) February 8, 2024

Smh…

end

KING REPORT

The King Report for February 8, 2024 Issue 7176Independent View of the News
Chinese companies are ramping up share buybacks, playing their part in a widening rescue campaign to stem a $7 trillion rout in the world’s second-biggest stock market. https://t.co/n6n5az9XHc
 
China has removed its top securities regulator following a yearslong stock-market decline – WSJ https://t.co/4fJDAAqcly
 
New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) opened modestly higher but quickly sank to a low of 3.62.
 
NYCB in Talks to Offload Mortgage Risk, Plans to Sell RV Loans – BBG
New York Community Bancorp… is seeking third-party capital… the institution is considering pursuing a synthetic risk transfer (via derivatives?) back by a portfolio of about $5 billion of home loans originate when rates were lower…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nycb-talks-offload-mortgage-risk-153439820.html
 
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. Issues Current Liquidity and Deposit Information
    Deposit Stability
        Total deposits of approximately $83.0 billion, which is up from year end 2023
        Total insured and collateralized deposits represent 72% of total deposits
        Total uninsured deposits, excluding collateralized and internal deposits, are $22.9 billion
        We maintain over $10B of reciprocal deposit capacity to offer expanded deposit insurance…
        90% of the balances in our top 20 deposit relationships are fully insured or collateralized
    Ample Liquidity
        Total liquidity of $37.3 billion which exceeds uninsured deposits, with a coverage ratio of 163%
        Cash held on balance sheet of approximately $17.0 billion
        Unencumbered securities of approximately $6.1 billion lendable value
        Fully collateralized credit facility with available capacity from the Fed… of New York and excess lendable value of collateral at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York totaling $14.2 billion…
    President and Chief Executive Officer, Thomas R. Cangemi stated, “We took decisive actions to fortify our balance sheet and strengthen our risk management processes during the fourth quarter… The Moody’s downgrade is not expected to have a material impact on our contractual arrangements…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-york-community-bancorp-inc-issues-current-liquidity-and-deposit-information-302055530.html
 
CNBC’s @LesliePicker: ‘Deposit resilience has been outstanding,’ says New York Community Bancorp’s executive chair Sandro DiNello, while noting that the firm has seen ‘virtually no deposit outflow from retail branches’ and that deposits are up from year-end.
 
New York Community elevates former Flagstar CEO amid continuing turmoil – American Banker
New York Community Bancorp said Wednesday that Alessandro DiNello (left) has moved from nonexecutive chairman to executive chairman. He was president and CEO of Flagstar Bancorp until its acquisition by New York Community in late 2022. Thomas Cangemi (right) remains president and CEO.
https://www.americanbanker.com/news/concerns-about-new-york-community-mount-after-chief-risk-officers-exit
 
NYCB Is Only the Start of the CRE Problem as Losses Emerge – BBG  10:05 ET
Values have collapsed for offices, multifamily will have a rough ride in some markets and the interest-only nature of CRE lending in much of the US means more pain is coming for smaller banks, who pushed to increase market share during quantitative easing…
    For investors, one thing to watch is how much CRE lending is not classified as CRE lending.   For example, were private banks lending the deposit for office towers to their clients?…
 
US Commercial Real Estate Contagion Is Now Moving to Europe – BBGBonds at Deutsche PBB suffer over bank’s property exposureWarning signals from US to Asia have multiplied recentlyAnalysts at Green Street said that further writedown of as much as 15% may needed this year.  “Appraisal values remain much too high,” they wrote… “There are serious concerns in the US CRE market,” said Rabobank Credit strategist Paul van der Westhuizen…
 
KKR Mortgage REIT shares sink to 4-year low after dividend slash http://reut.rs/3OYdvjh
 
Big Banks Well Placed to Prosper from Rivals’ CRE Distress – BBG 8:51 ET
About 30% of small banks’ assets are CRE loans versus 7% for large banks…
 
Fed’s Kashkari Sees Two to Three Rates Cuts As Appropriate in 2024 – BBGA ‘few more months’ of data would give us confidence, he saysMinneapolis Fed chief says jobs market to dictate pace of cuts (Team Obama-Biden will rig) 
@BostonFed: (Boston Fed Pres) Collins: Policy should reflect the commitment to restoring price stability while also preserving the more-equitable outcomes seen in this recovery. While not on a preset path, she says it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year…
    Collins said she will need to see more evidence that the disinflationary process will continue before beginning to carefully adjust the monetary policy stance…
 
@MarketWatch: Fed’s Barkin says it makes sense to be ‘patient’ on rate cuts
 
USHs waffled between modest losses and gains until they broke lower near 5 ET.  USHs hit a low of 120 12/32 at 7:21 ET.   Due to regional banking concerns, bonds then rallied even though the US Treasury would auction $42B of 10-year notes, the largest ever 10-year auction.   Tuesday’s $54B auction of 3-year notes produced a yield of 4.169% vs 4.177% WI.  USHs hit a high of 121 10/32 at 9:48 ET.  They then fell to 120 24/32 at 10:16 ET.  After a modest bounce, USHs traded sideways until they rallied modestly after a successful 10-year note auction: 4.093% vs. 4.105% WI.
 
The post-10-year note auction rally was modest and ended quickly.  USHs retreated and went inert.
 
Fangs rallied sharply early on Wednesday due to Meta (+2.79% near 11:00 ET), Broadcom (+2.39% near 11:00 ET, Snowflake (+2.15% near 11:00 ET), and Netflix (+1.93% near 11:00 ET). 
 
ESHs traded mostly in negative territory and in a tight range until they exploded higher after 7:25 ET.  ESHs zoomed from 4971.50 at 7:25 ET to 5015.25 at 10:27 ET.  ESHs then traded sideways, in a 13-handle range, until they hit a new high of 5019.25 at 13:29 ET.  ESHs then went inert, ex-a modest rally that quickly aborted near 15:00 ET.  ESHs did a slow rollover until they rallied 6 handles near the close.
 
The ‘game’ for Wednesday was to push ESHs and select stocks higher to get the S&P 500 Index to print 5000 – despite three Fed officials tempering rate cut hopes.  It seems that each time Chinese stocks tank or concern about US banks arises, someone forces ESHs higher after sharp declines during Asian and European trading – and sometimes early NYSE trading.  Qui bono?
 
@LiveSquawk: US DOE Crude Oil Inventories (Bbls) Feb-02: +5520K (est +2073K; prev +1234K)
– Distillate: -3221K (est -2500K; prev -2542K); – Cushing: -33K (prev -1972K); – Gasoline: -3146K (est +1500K; prev +1157K); – Refinery Utilization: -0.50% (est +1.20%; prev -2.60%)
 
Axios’ @BarakRavid: Israeli MoD Gallant told Blinken that Hamas’ negative response to the hostage deal proposal will push Israel to expand its ground operation in Gaza soon, a senior Israeli official said..  https://www.axios.com/2024/02/07/blinken-netanyahu-gallant-israel-gaza-rafah-egypt
 
@AP: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects cease-fire demands from Hamas and vows to fight until “absolute victory.”
 
@AmichaiStein1: US sec Blinken: ‘Israelis were dehumanised in the most horrific way on October 7 -– but that cannot be a license to dehumanise others’.  (Blinken, an Obamaite, is getting scorched for this.)
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Fangs rallied smartly; US equity indices rallied moderately
The usual suspects want to push the S&P 500 Index above 5000
 
Negative aspects of previous session
NY Community Bancorp hit a new low
Bonds declined.  USHs were -9/32 at the NYSE close despite a benign 10-year auction of $42B
Gasoline rallied sharply due to lower-than-expected inventories and collapse of Israel-Hamas talks
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How bad is the US regional bank crisis going to be?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4988.00
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4999.89; 4969.05
 
BBG @business: Citadel was among the hedge funds that received tips on block trades from Morgan Stanley
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: When was the last time Biden or Blinken demanded Hamas release the hostages?  Or threatened Hamas or Iran with consequences for holding civilians, including Americans?
Every demand and threat is made against our ally Israel. (Cuz Team Obama detests Israel!)
 
Biden Admin Classifies Martha’s Vineyard, Elite Locales As ‘Low-Income’ To Push EV Charger Subsidies https://t.co/sTwaQwtzTO
 
Biden Brags About Defying Supreme Court on Student Debt Cancellation, Claims No Cost to Taxpayers – “The Supreme Court of the United States blocked me, but they didn’t stop me,”…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-brags-about-defying-supreme-court-student-debt-cancellation-claims-no-cost
 
Democrat privilege, MSM obeisance, and the cowardly GOPe allowed Obama and now Biden to insouciantly dismiss and fluant laws, the Constitution, and ethical standards.
 
After the close, Disney reported Q1 EPS of 1.22 (.99 exp.), revenue of $23.55B ($23.8B exp.), But DIS+ subscribers were 149.6m, 151.2m was consensus.  DIS forecasts FY Adj EPS of 4.60, 4.27 was consensus.  To prevent DIS from falling on the poor subscriber’s data, Disney boosted its dividend by 50% and announced a $3B share buyback for 2024.  DIS jumped 8.3% by 16:15 ET.
 
Today – Despite, or perhaps because of, an escalating US regional banking crisis and three Fed presidents squashing rate cut fantasies, the usual suspects tried to push the S&P 500 Index to 5000.  They failed by 0.11 points.  Barring news, traders will print the S&P 500 Index above 5000 on the NYSE opening.
 
The key for today should be the ability to get the S&P 500 Index to jump decisively above 5000.  If the index breaches 5000 but later recedes below 5k, spirited trader liquidation could appear.  However, the usual suspects will keep pushing equities and ESHs higher until something dissuades them.
 
ESHs are -2.50 and USHs are -8/32 at 20:20 ET.
 
Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.875m; Dec Wholesale Sales 0.2% m/m, Inventories 0.4% y/y; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 12:05 ET & 13:30 ET
 
Expected earnings: COP 2.07, HSY 1.95, BAX .86, PM 1.46, K .74
 
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4752; 100-day MA: 4548; 150-day MA: 4526; 200-day MA: 4454
DJIA 50-day MA: 37,338; 100-day MA: 35,612; 150-day MA: 35,347, 200-day MA: 34,922
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4633.13 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4875.58 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4961.34 triggers a sell signal
 
@NEWSMAX: GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz on failed impeachment vote: “I think that the errant expulsion of [George] Santos and the abject selfishness of Kevin McCarthy contributed to this result as much as the three Republican members who voted no.” https://t.co/FD13V40icJ
 
GOP Rep. Gaetz claims petty internecine GOP grievances and spite induced some GOP Reps to vote against impeaching Mayorkas.  Dems have iron-clad discipline; the GOP doesn’t.
 
@MHowellTweets: Not for nothing, two weeks ago @MikeforWI (GOP) sent @SecMayorkas
 a letter asking him to step up enforcement of certain laws relating to textile imports.  Last week Mayorkas did just that.   (GOP Rep Mike Gallagher voted ‘no’ on impeaching Mayorkas.)
 
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) argued a vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas would have “opened Pandora’s box” in a recent op-ed.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4452861-house-mike-gallagher-pandoras-box-mayorkas-impeachment/
 
@StephenM: Imagine being a Republican and believing that refusing to impeach Mayorkas will inspire Democrats not to pursue impeachments in the future!…
 
Haley (32.4%) loses to ‘none of these candidates’ (61.2%) in Nevada GOP primary without Trump https://t.co/JaC7xhX6jp
 
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Now McConnell & Co. want us to give Ukraine $8 BILLION to pay the salaries of government bureaucrats — in Ukraine! — with no real oversight or accountability.
 
@ChadPergram: Sen. Sanders: I will be voting NO on the motion to proceed on the supplemental appropriations bill that the Senate will be voting on today. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’s terrorism. But it does not have the right to go to war against the entire Palestinian ppl
 
GOP Rep. @mattgaetz: I fully endorse Kevin McCarthy for RNC Chair. Kevin is… a very high-revenue fundraiser. He will also be well-liked by the RNC Committee.  The RNC Chair doesn’t make any policy decisions, set any agenda, or negotiate against Democrats, ever.  Kevin would be terrific.
 
DeSantis Slams GOP over ‘Failure Theater,’ ‘Virtue Signaling’: ‘Voters Are Really Getting Sick of It’ – “Have they done anything to stop any of the problems with this government using the power of the purse? No, they haven’t done anything. You look at the Republican National Committee, it’s almost bankrupt. The chairman’s going to likely quit. These guys are like the keystone cops, and I just think a lot of voters are really getting sick of it. I see a lot of failure theater, I see a lot of virtue signaling, but I don’t see a lot of actual results.”…
https://www.dailywire.com/news/desantis-slams-gop-over-failure-theater-virtue-signaling-voters-are-really-getting-sick-of-it
 
Gov. Hochul rips decision to free migrants who attacked NYPD officers: ‘It never should have happened’ https://t.co/xa3270MR7h
 
@FoxNews: White House says ICE will reduce deportations, detention capacity if Republicans don’t pass border bill (Joe’s handlers threaten to keep doing what they are doing!)
  GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: This is blackmail.  And an admission that Biden controls the level of illegal immigration. The entire border crisis is by design.
 
PS – The House passed a border security bill (HR-2) on May 11, 2023, by a 219-215 vote.
https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2023209
 
Squatters take over 1,200 homes in Atlanta, open illegal strip clubs and terrorize neighbors: ‘Is this even America?’ – Evicting squatters in Atlanta is tough, involving negotiating court backlogs and strained police resources… https://nypost.com/2024/02/06/news/squatters-take-over-1200-homes-in-atlanta-terrorize-neighbors/
 
16-year-old, on parole for attempted murder, fatally stabbed this man during a botched robbery, prosecutors say (Chicago) – Just 6 days earlier, prosecutors dropped a stolen car case the boy faced. He picked that up while on parole, too… https://t.co/qj5MFc7h0D
 
Law & order in the USA is in collapse.  At some point, there will be a revolt out of necessity.  The longer the period until the revolt, the greater the chance that the eventual law & order electees will be extreme.
 
@EndWokeness: Julius Malema has repeatedly called for the genocide of the 4 million Whites living in South Africa.  Malema could very possibly be elected as Prime Minister in a few months.
 
@HansMahn>https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1755002093813874905
 
We recently highlighted the Cloward-Piven strategy to destroy US capitalism by bankrupting the country via massive entitlements and immigration.  For whatever reason, an increasing number of pundits and people are discussing it.  Yes, Virginia; it is that obvious!
 
Actor @RealJamesWoods: For those unfamiliar, here is the Cloward-Piven strategy in a nutshell. Obama was raised on this garbage in his Chicago years.
https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1755306725211803728
 
Victor Davis Hanson: “The chaos can only be deliberate. Chance, incompetence, and accident could not alone explain the series of disasters we now daily witness that are nearly destroying the country.”
 
WSJ: US Kills Militia Leader Behind Drone Attack – airstrike killed commander of the Irani-backed Kataib Hezbollah that the U.S. said was responsible for the deadly assault on a U.S. base in Jordan.

GREG HUNTER 

SEE YOU ON FRIDAY

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