FEB 13/BLOG FOR TUESDAY//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $20.15 TO $1994.75/SILVER WAS DOWN 60 CENTS TO $22.10//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $18.65 TO $874.45 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $29.45 TO $866.90//RAID TODAY ORCHESTRATED BY OUR BANKING CROOKS AS THE FED IS TRYING TO BUY BACK ITS 117 TONNES OF GOLD BORROWED FROM THE BIS//CPI REPORT HOT AND VERY INFLATIONARY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH//HOUTHIS HITS AN IRANIAN SHIP//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURIES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC/EVOL NEWS//NEWS ADDICTS//CRE’s AND REGIONAL BANKS READY TO IMPLODE ON HIGHER RATES//SWAMP STORIES ALONG WITH THE BIDEN MESS //KING NEWS REPORTS//
this week is China’s golden week so physical demand will be slow. It will dramatically pick up starting this Friday.
Bitcoin morning price:, 49,951 UP 179 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $49,212 DOWN 560 dollars
Platinum price closing $874.45 DOWN $18.65
Palladium price; $861.90 DOWN $29.45
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 58 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 7 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 17 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 880 H CITIGROUP 10 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 20 20 MONTH TO DATE: 16,527
JPMorgan stopped 0/20 contracts.
FOR FEB.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 20 NOTICES FOR 2000 OZ or 0.0622 TNNES
total notices so far: 16,527 contracts for 1,652,700 Oz (51.390 tonnes)
FOR FEBRUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1066 for 5,330,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15//CROOKS
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 437.615 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 240 CONTRACTS TO 146,762 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.14 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION AND LITTLE SHORT COVERING AS THE OPEN INTEREST FELL SLIGHTLY. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS 3707 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 3707 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.14), AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME MINOR SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR SIZED 250 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 25,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW TOTAL; 6.97 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.97 MILLION OZ
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3707 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 530 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 4410 contracts: OR 22.050 MILLION OZ (490 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 20.050 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 22.0500 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 240CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 250 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW TOTAL 6.97 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING 6.97 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN OF 540 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3707 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH SOME SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS (OPEN INTEREST FELL) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (3707) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 309 CONTRACTS TO 417,298 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 85 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 224 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $4.80 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 54.273 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4,80 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1947 OI CONTRACTS (6.055) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2256CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 417,298
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1947 CONTRACTS WITH 309 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2256 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1947 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2249 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2256CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (309) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1947 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 9000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 54.548 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2249CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 30,739 CONTRACTS OR 3,073,900OZ OR 95.611 TONNES IN 9TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3560 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 95.611 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 95.611/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 95.611 TONNES (SHOULD BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 240CONTRACTS OI TO 146,762 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 250 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 250 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 240 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 540CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.05 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED XXX //Hang Seng CLOSED XXX /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 1066.55 PTS OR 2.89% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.16% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed XXXX
//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2151 /Oil UP TO 76.88 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82..48/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 309 CONTRACTS TO 417,298 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2256 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2256 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2256CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1947 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2224 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 309 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.80 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 3600 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (54.548 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 54.548 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $4.80 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF1947 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED NERVOUS SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS LONGS NOTIFIED THE CME THAT THEY WERE TAKING DELIVERY ON THEIR JUST PURCHASED GOLD CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 6.055 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 9000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.2799 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 54.548: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.80
WE HAD -REMOVED 85 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1947 CONTRACTS OR 194,700 OZ OR 6.055 TONNES. estimated volume today 206,675 fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 125,378 extremely poor
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,527 notices 1,652,700 oz 51.390 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of HSBC: 69,575.559 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan 146,222.748 oz (4548 kilobars)
total withdrawals 215,798.307 oz 6.716 tonnes
we had 0 customer deposits
Adjustments: 1 dealer to customer
a) HSBC 77.64 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 478 contracts having GAINED 65 contracts. We had 25 notices filed on Monday, so we gained 90 contracts or an additional 9000 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as they took delivery over on this side of the pond.
We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.
Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 9000 oz for .2799 tonnes//New standing 52.805 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 54.273 TONNES
March gained 89 contracts to stand at 2125
APRIL LOST 1874 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 335,681.
We had 20 contracts filed for today representing 2000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 17 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,527 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (478 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 20 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,697,200 OZ OR 52.805 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 54.548 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,527) x 100 oz + (478) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (20) x 100 oz which equals 1,697,200 oz (52.805 TONNES) + 54,400 oz (1.723 TONNES) ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 54.548 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 54.658 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,470,836.934 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,641,770.916 (268.795 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,829,066.018 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,240,780 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 225.21 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 13/INITIAL
//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1042.550 oz
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,681,392.588 oz ASAHI HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
239 contracts (1,195,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1066 Contracts (5,330,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into ASAHI 586,291.200 oz
ii) Into HSBC 1095,101.388 oz
total customer deposits 1,681,392.588 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/276.209 million or 47.61%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Delaware 1042.550 oz
total withdrawal: 1042.550 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276.259 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB. /2023 OI: 239 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 5 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 5 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AS THEY WERE FERRIED OVER TO LONDON FOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER THERE.
MARCH LOST 5841 CONTRACTS TO 78,718
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 20
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 5017 CONTRACTS UP TO 49,649
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 108339 huge
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 99,556 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1066 x 5,000 oz = 5,330,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (239) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 1066 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (239) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 6.5250 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 6.9700 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 6.9700 million oz.
There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 841.92 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 437.616 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/JIM RICKARDS
Despite the Wall Street happy talk about the Federal Reserve winning the battle against inflation, that battle has not been won.
Headline CPI (the kind Americans actually pay) was 3.1% in January – lower than December but notably above expectations. However, ‘core’ and ‘supercore’ were more problematic – up 3.9% YoY (flat from December) and up 4.4% YoY (highest since May 2023) respectively.
In other words, inflation is not gone and may even be on the rise with higher oil prices lately due to geopolitical concerns. The Fed will not raise rates, but they will not be quick to cut them given continued inflation.
Inflation has a way of sneaking up on investors in small increments and can do a lot of damage before investors see it for what it is. Sure, 3.4% inflation is a lot better than 9% inflation.
But a 3.4% inflation rate cuts the value of a dollar in half in 21 years and half again in another 21 years. That’s a 75% dollar devaluation in just 42 years or the course of a typical career from age 23 to age 65.
(By the way, I’ll be live tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. ET as part of the Zero Hedge debate series on the future of the U.S. dollar. If you want to check it out, go here to learn how.)
That’s one of the main reasons I recommend gold. Gold is priced in dollars. Inflation means the dollar is worth less in terms of purchasing power. That means it takes more dollars to buy gold, so the dollar price of gold goes up.
What you may lose in the rest of your portfolio in terms of dollar purchasing power is made up in part or all from the profits you make on the higher dollar price of gold. Owning gold will protect you from the ravages of inflation. You’ll have your inflation protection in place 24/7 and won’t be caught off-guard.
Get Diversified!
Geopolitical conflicts and political turmoil often result in unforeseen consequences. These consequences can include supply chain disruptions, economic sanctions, asset seizures and freezes, bond defaults, bank failures and inflation. Oil prices can spike if key waterways are closed, or a vessel is sunk.
Economic sanctions and financial warfare can cause recession or a banking crisis almost overnight. Assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate and alternative investments can be adversely affected by such changes without warning.
Gold tends to be insulated from such shocks because there is no issuer, no creditor and no country involved. It’s just gold. That means you can hold it safely and wait out the turmoil without adverse effects.
Gold prices do not correlate closely to stock prices. Gold and stocks are driven by separate factors. That makes gold a good diversification asset for portfolios that are heavily in stocks. When a portfolio is highly diversified, it can produce higher expected returns without adding risk.
The difficult part is finding asset classes that really are diversified. Buying 50 different stocks is not diversification since you only have one asset class — stocks — and the behavior of various shares will be highly correlated in times of stress. Gold is genuinely diversified from stocks and will improve portfolio returns.
Golden Tailwinds
Gold prices have been trending higher lately with some volatility along the way. Gold hit an interim bottom of $1,831 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, and then rallied to $2,089 per ounce on Dec. 1, close to an all-time high.
Gold retreated slightly and then hit another high of $2,093 on Dec. 27. The rally from Oct. 5 to Dec. 27 was a 14% gain in just under three months. That’s an excellent performance.
Today, gold is around $2,033 per ounce, still close to the recent highs. These trends toward higher prices have been driven by lower interest rates; continued inflation; geopolitical concerns about the Middle East; and continued buying by central banks, especially Russia and China.
All those trends will continue. One of the principal drivers of the gold price rally is the steep decline in interest rates in recent months. The interest rate (expressed as a yield-to-maturity) on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note plunged from around 5.0% to 4.0% in a matter of weeks at the end of 2023.
Don’t mistake a 1.0% move for something small. That’s an earthquake in bond markets, especially in such a short period of time (47 days). A 1.0% move in that short a period of time has only happened in the Treasury market six times in the past 30 years.
Rates have backed up slightly in the past month, but that’s to be expected. Nothing moves in a straight line. The decline in rates will resume in the months ahead as the U.S. economy moves into disinflation and recession. That will give a boost to the dollar price of gold since notes and gold compete for investor allocations. Lower interest rates generally make gold relatively more attractive since gold has no yield.
Meanwhile, Russia and China and other central banks have been adding to their gold reserves consistently since 2008. Total gold reserves have increased from about 600 metric tonnes to 3,000 metric tonnes in Russia, and over 2,000 metric tonnes in China (although there is good reason to believe that China’s gold reserves are much higher, perhaps double the official figures or more).
That increase in gold holdings will continue and probably accelerate as the U.S. threatens to seize Russian reserves in the form of Treasury securities and as progress is made on the new BRICS gold-linked currency.
The 10% Rule
Every investor should have an allocation to gold in her portfolio. It’s an excellent diversification and can be a powerful asset to have in the face of natural disaster, infrastructure collapse or social unrest.
I recommend a 10% allocation of investable assets to gold. In calculating investable assets, you should exclude home equity and the value of any private business. Don’t gamble with your house and livelihood.
Whatever is left (stocks, bonds, real estate, alternatives) are your investible assets. Allocate 10% of that amount to gold. That allocation is high enough that you’ll make significant profits (and protect against losses in the rest of your portfolio) if gold soars, but small enough that your overall portfolio won’t be hurt badly if gold goes down.
A 10% allocation is the sweet spot for both profits and downside protection. The bottom line is gold is like an anchor for the rest of a diversified portfolio. It is physical so it is not easily frozen by government fiat.
It offers diversification because it does not correlate to other asset performance (except Treasury notes on occasion). It is the best hedge against inflation.
Gold should not dominate any portfolio, but it should be part of every portfolio.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
Zimbabwe considers using gold to back its currency
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-02-12 09:50 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ray Ndlovu Bloomberg News Monday, February 12, 2024
Zimbabwe may back its currency with gold in an effort to end exchange-rate instability, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said.
“To manage growth of liquidity, we may link the exchange rate to a hard asset such as gold,” Ncube said in an online press briefing held today to announce a conference of African ministers that Zimbabwe will host at the end of this month.
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week signaled the authorities are considering a revamp of the world’s worst-performing currency. He said the Treasury and monetary authorities are working on a “structured currency.” …
Because SLV and GLD are suppose to be physical in nature, the shorting of these vehicles is preposterous.
(ed Steer)
Ed Steer: The short position in SLV drops 25%
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-02-12 17:43 Section: Daily Dispatches
5:41p ET Monday, February 12, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “The Short Position in SLV Drops 25%” and it’s posted in the clear at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2151
SHANGHAI CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.96 EURO FALLS TO 1.0782 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.721 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.34/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3440***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.877* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.292…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.343
3j Gold at $2028.75 silver at: 22.86 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 7 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.24//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.34// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.721% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8774 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9482 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.166 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.365 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.468 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.73…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 3 BASIS PTS AT 4.1095
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Slump, Tech Giants Drop Ahead Of CPI Report
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 08:14 AM
US equity futures and European bourses slumped before the release of closely watched CPI data that could set the stage for the timing of the Federal Reserve move to interest-rate cuts. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.6% while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, extending Monday’s decline in the main US stock gauge from a high of near 5,050. Nvidia dropped 1% in premarket trading with all Mag 7 stocks down. Bond yields are down 3bps, the dollar fell and bitcoin traded around $50,000, the highest in over two years. Commodities are higher pre-mkt led by both Energy and Metals. CPI is the key macro focus for today but we also receive Small Business Optimism; full CPI preview and scenario analysis is below.
In premarket trading, all Mag7 names were lower pre-mkt as it is becoming increasingly clear that someone has been gaming a gamma squeeze (most likely SoftBank in names like Arm Holdings).
Arista Networks shares fell 7.1% after the cloud networking company’s first-quarter results and outlook were seen by some as underwhelming, given AI-related expectations.
Beamr Imaging rose 16%, on track to extend gains after rallying more than 370% on Monday after the video optimization technology and solutions company announced that it teamed up with Nvidia on a joint research.
Cadence Design System shares fell 6.7% on Tuesday, after the application software company gave a first-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected.
G1 Therapeutics shares slumped 38% after the biopharmaceutical company announced plans to continue its phase 3 trial of Trilaciclib in metastatic triple negative breast cancer after analysis from an independent data monitoring committee.
JetBlue shares jumped 14% after activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a 9.91% stake in the airline and said he had held talks with management about the possibility of representation on the board.
Lattice Semiconductor fell 7.8% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter revenue as well as 1Q forecast fell short of average estimates.
Teradata shares slid 14% after the infrastructure-software company issued guidance for full-year adjusted earnings per share that missed estimates. TD Cowen said this was a setback in Teradata’s cloud migration momentum.
TripAdvisor shares climbed 12% after announcing the formation of a special committee to evaluate any proposals that may be brought forward for a potential deal, following Liberty TripAdvisor’s board authorizing talks on a possible acquisition of the travel-services platform.
ZoomInfo Technologies shares soared 21% after the infrastructure software company reported fourth-quarter revenue that beat consensus estimates. Analysts said the results were solid overall, particularly due to the low expectations going into the report.
2U fell 24% after the online educational services company flagged “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern, citing debt as a concern. Its 2024 revenue forecasts also missed estimates. Morgan Stanley halves its share price target on the stock.
Investors are taking a breather from the torrid meltup after optimism about corporate earnings – driven by what Bloomberg calls a combination of resilient US growth and expected interest-rate cuts – helped push the market to extremely overbought territory. The latest BofA Fund Managers Survey found that allocation to US equities has risen, with exposure to the tech industry at the highest since August 2020.
Today’s inflation report (which we previewed in depth here), which is expected to show the first reading below 3% on year-over-year headline inflation since March 2021, may not be enough to justify a more rapid shift to monetary easing. Employment (as much as that number is not completely made up), manufacturing and economic growth in the US have surprised on the upside, proving resilient to the fastest rate increases in a generation.
“Despite expecting CPI to print below 3% later, we still think the market is over-exuberant when it comes to when that first cut comes in,” Grace Peters, head of global investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Policy makers, meanwhile, are driving home the message that rate-cut bets have become overblown. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin Monday warned US businesses accustomed to raising prices in recent years may continue to fan inflation. The market is overlooking the risk of rate increases following the easing cycle, strategists at Citigroup Inc. warned Monday.
Derivatives markets point to the first fully-priced quarter-point rate cut in June, with three more to follow in 2024, taking the Fed Funds Rate lower by 1 percentage point by December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
European stocks and US futures are on the back foot as investors look ahead to the release of US consumer price data. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.3% led lower by technology names which fell from Monday’s highest close since December 2000, as chip stocks pulled back after wafer maker Siltronic gave full-year guidance that was much weaker than expected; healthcare and auto stocks advanced. ASML lost over 7% at the open before recovering, with some traders blaming a “fat finger.” Here are the key European movers:
Michelin shares rise as much as 4.1% as analysts welcomed the French tire-maker’s results and a buyback announcement, though several noted the company’s cautious guidance.
Neste shares gain as much as 1.6% after Redburn raises rating to neutral from sell, saying the Finland-based refiner’s disappointing 2024 margin guidance has put a floor under expectations.
Lundbeck shares rise as much as 3.5% after the Danish pharmaceutical group was upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank, which says it’s at a “good entry point” following recent weakness.
TUI shares rise as much as 8.2% in Frankfurt after the tour operator surprised markets by posting a 1Q underlying Ebit for the first time, bolstering confidence in full-year guidance.
ThyssenKrupp Nucera shares gain as much as 5.1% after the German firm’s orders beat estimates. Deutsche Bank said the release showed a good start to the year.
Believe shares gain as much as 19% after investment firms in partnership with its founder Denis Ladegaillerie offered to take the French record label private Monday at €15 per share.
Tokmanni shares gain as much as 6.1% after raising its revenue target and announcing it targets a store network of 360+ Tokmanni, Dollarstore and Bigdollar stores in Nordics by end 2025.
Basilea shares gain as much as 15%, the most since August, after the Swiss pharmaceutical company boosted its guidance for 2024, offsettinga revenue miss.
ASML shares fall as much as 7.1% early on Tuesday before quickly trimming the decline, with several traders citing an erroneous trade known as a ‘fat finger.’
Genmab shares drop as much as 4.4% after Carnegie decreased its price target on the Danish biotechnology company, scheduled to report full-year earnings on Wednesday.
Kemira shares fall as much as 5.3% after a share sale by holder Solidium priced at €16 apiece, representing a roughly 5.9% discount to the last close.
Siltronic shares falls as much as 10% after the wafer maker gave full-year guidance that was much weaker than expected, driven by elevated inventories at chipmaker clients. Peers drop.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, boosted by a rally in semiconductor and technology stocks that lifted markets like Korea and Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, with Tokyo Electron, Toyota Motor and Tokio Marine contributing the most. Japanese stocks surged the most in a month after trading resumed following Monday’s holiday, driven by gains in chipmakers, exporters and ARM-rigging Softbank. Stocks in China, Vietnam, Taiwan and Hong Kong remained closed on account of Lunar New Year holidays. A Bloomberg gauge of semiconductor stocks in Asia was on pace for its highest close in nearly two years, propelled by Tokyo Electron’s strong earnings forecast and a rally in Nvidia shares overnight. The gains also helped Korea, which was on verge of erasing its year-to-date losses. Australia’s ASX 200 was choppy as gains in mining, utilities and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, telecoms and tech, while data showed an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment but NAB Business Confidence and Conditions were mixed.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. Gilts are in the red after UK wage growth slowed less than expected in the fourth quarter. The data also pushed the pound to the top of the G-10 FX pile – cable is up 0.3%.
In rates, treasuries were slightly richer across the curve amid outperformance by bunds during European morning. US 10-year at 4.165% trails bunds in the sector by 0.5bp. US intermediate to long-end yields richer by as much as 1.5bp; front-end lags, flattening 2s10s spread by less than 1bp toward middle of Monday’s range. Gilts lag by 2.5bps, with 10-year yields reaching highest level since Dec. 5 after UK December earnings data. Ahead of US CPI data, Fed-dated swaps price in around 3bp of easing for the March policy meeting and 16bp for May; further out, around 112bp of cuts are priced in for the year. Dollar issuance slate includes EBRD 4Y FRN; seven companies combined to price $11.3b on Monday as issuers paid about 6bps in new-issue concessions, driven by order books that were just under three times covered. US economic data calendar includes only January CPI at 8:30am.
In commodities, oil prices advanced again, with WTI rising 1.2%, to trade near $77.80 while Brent briefly topped $83. Spot gold adds 0.3%.
Bitcoin continues to hold above the USD 50k mark and Ethereum (+1.2%) plays catch-up. The aggressive flood of retail flows into bitcoin ETFs continues.
Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the US January CPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK January jobless claims, December average weekly earnings, Germany and Eurozone February Zew survey, Germany December current account balance and the French Q4 ilo unemployment rate. Finally, we will have earnings releases from Coca-Cola, Shopify, Airbnb, Zoetis, Marriott, Biogen, and Restaurant Brands.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 5,024.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 486.03
MXAP up 0.9% to 168.66
MXAPJ up 0.1% to 512.04
Nikkei up 2.9% to 37,963.97
Topix up 2.1% to 2,612.03
Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 15,746.58
Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,865.90
Sensex up 0.7% to 71,545.85
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,603.58
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,649.64
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.35%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0761
Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.65/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.66/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,026.07
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.24
Top Overnight News
MSCI Inc. is cutting dozens of Chinese companies from its global benchmarks following a market rout that’s erased trillions of dollars in value from the nation’s stocks. BBG
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is intensifying efforts to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, as he pushes for a diplomatic breakthrough with the dictator in a bid to save his faltering premiership. FT
Russia intends to double the number of its troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland as it prepares for a potential military conflict with Nato within the next decade, according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. FT
UK wage growth in Dec cools by less than expected vs. Nov, with core +6.2% Y/Y (down from +6.7% in Nov, but higher than the consensus forecast of +6%). WSJ
Swiss CPI for Jan tumbles by much more than anticipated, coming in at +1.3% Y/Y headline (vs. the Street +1.7% and vs. +1.7% in Dec) and +1.2% core (vs. the Street +1.6% and vs. +1.5% in Dec). BBG
CPI GIR estimates a 0.38% increase in January core MoM CPI (vs consensus +.3% and last +.3%). Our forecast reflects a temporary boost from above-normal start-of-year price increases, including for prescription drugs, car insurance, tobacco, and medical services. US equities rally should continue on anything sub 30bps here….north of 40bps will hit stocks…everything else in-between will be noisy which is likely where we land. GS GBM
Nearly 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate — $929 billion — will mature this year, requiring refinancing or property sales. The volume of loans coming due swelled 40% from an earlier estimate by the Mortgage Bankers Association of $659 billion, a surge attributed to loan extensions and other delays rather than new transactions. BBG
The Senate passed a $95 billion national security package to aid Israel, Ukraine and other U.S. allies early Tuesday morning after a monthslong debate that has deeply divided congressional Republicans. The bill passed 70 to 29, after 22 Republicans joined Democrats in approving the aid. WaPo
Asset managers from BlackRock to Grayscale have launched an online advertising blitz for their bitcoin exchange traded funds, taking advantage of a change to Google’s marketing rules on promoting cryptocurrency instruments. Google’s new marketing rules allow ads touting “cryptocurrency coin trusts” to appear alongside search results for queries such as “bitcoin ETF”. They took effect on January 29, weeks after 10 asset managers launched bitcoin ETFs on January 11. FT
2024 YTD buyback authorizations are on pace for the second largest on record, with $166B authorizations with a tilt towards large cap tech. If you remove CVX, $75B authorization from 2023, authorizations would be +26% y/y. (166b v 132b), a new record
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed albeit with a positive bias as several markets reopened from the extended weekend. ASX 200 was choppy as gains in mining, utilities and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, telecoms and tech, while data showed an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment but NAB Business Confidence and Conditions were mixed. Nikkei 225 outperformed and extended on its highest levels since February 1990 as the earnings deluge resumed.
Top Asian News
RBA’s Head of Economic Analysis Kohler said inflation is coming down but is still too high and it will take some time for inflation to get back within the 2%-3% target range and based on their central forecast, inflation is expected to return to the target range in 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026. Furthermore, Kohler said services price inflation remains high and broadly based, while she also noted that high inflation, higher tax payments and higher interest rates have significantly reduced household incomes.
Brussels is now reportedly preparing to sanction four Chinese entities which it believes are helping the Kremlin buy European dual-use goods, according to a draft of the proposal cited by Politico
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%), initially opened on a mixed footing before dipping into the red as sentiment waned throughout the early hours. The Eurostoxx50 (-0.7%) is dragged down by Tech names Infineon (-2.3%), SAP (-2.3%) and ASML (-3.8%), after Siltronic (-8.1%) issued a profit warning. European sectors are generally lower, though the overall breadth of the market is fairly narrow (ex-Tech). Tech is the clear laggard, after Siltronic announced poor guidance. Healthcare marginally outperforms after GSK (+1.1%) received a broker upgrade at Citi. US Equity Futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.6%, RTY -0.4%) are softer across the board, with price action generally following that seen in European trade. The docket for today sees US CPI where expectations are for the headline to cool to 0.2% (prev. revised 0.3%).
Top European News
BoE reportedly plans to stress test insurers on exposure to reinsurance firms, according to FT.
Riksbank’s Jansson says hard to believe that rates could be cut at each meeting when the time comes for rate cuts to be lowered. There is not a zero chance that the first rate cut could come after this summer. Can not exclude that we could cut rates before Fed and ECB.
FX
USD firmer vs. most peers but gains tentative as US CPI looms large. DXY incrementally took out yesterday’s best of 104.27 with the next upside target the 8th Feb high at 104.43.
EUR is contained within Monday’s 1.0756-1.0805 range with that session’s venture above 1.08 unconvincing. However, a soft US CPI print could change that and prompt a test of the 200DMA at 1.0829.
GBP is the best performer vs. the USD and EUR/GBP is at its lowest level since August post-jobs data. Cable shot to a high of 1.2655, matching yesterday’s best but stopped ahead of its 21DMA at 1.2665.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD but to varying degrees with NZD more so, following soft inflation expectation survey data. NZD/USD has now pared all of Friday’s upside. AUD remains rangebound since printing a YTD low last week with AUD/USD chopping and changing around the 0.65 mark.
CHF is the worst performer across the majors following soft Swiss CPI metrics which have boosted the odds of a March SNB cut to over 50% from 28%. EUR/CHF advanced to a high of 0.9493 (highest since Dec 18th) with all eyes on a potential test of 0.95.
Fixed Income
Bunds were initially bearish as the complex reacted to hawkish UK wage data, resulting in the 133.28 session trough. This move has now entirely pared and back towards session highs of 133.65, after an additional boost on a well-received German outing.
USTs moved in tandem with Bunds post-UK data, but magnitudes more limited as we await US CPI where downward inflation trends are expected to be evident once again, headline & core seen easing further.
Gilts opened lower by 20 ticks from Monday’s 97.68 close and thereafter slipped incrementally further to a 97.42 trough as the benchmark reacted to the earlier UK data. However, the move has since pared with Gilts now back towards the mentioned close as focus turns to upcoming events today before UK inflation & GDP later in the week.
Germany sells EUR 3.292bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.10% 2029 Bobl: b/c 2.30x, average yield 2.30%, and retention 17.68%.
UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L: b/c 2.97x (prev. 2.68x) and real yield 0.634% (prev. 0.724%).
Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 7-8.5bln 2.95% 2027, 3.70% 2030, 4.00% 2030, and 4.45% 2043 BTP.
Commodities
Crude complex trades with gains after settling relatively flat yesterday, although off Monday’s intraday troughs amid heightened geopolitics and Saudi jawboning. Trade is within a tight range as markets look ahead to the OPEC Monthly Oil Report followed by US CPI. Upside in crude prices coincided with commentary from the OPEC Sec Gen with Brent near peaks of USD 82.50/bbl.
Precious metals hold an underlying bid despite the somewhat resilient pre-CPI Dollar and steady USTs, potentially propped up by the ongoing geopolitical developments which are showing no signs of cooling; XAU found support at USD 2,016.67/oz as it eyes its 21 DMA (USD 2,027.66/oz) to the upside.
Base metals are modestly firmer despite the resilient Dollar and subdued risk tone, with no obvious catalyst to explain broader base metals’ price action, whilst Chinese markets remain on holiday.
Morgan Stanley raises oil demand growth forecast to 1.5mln BPD (prev. 1.3mln BPD) and reduces non-OPEC growth forecast to 1.5mln BPD (prev. 1.7mln BPD); bringing the two in-line.
IEA sees 2024 global oil demand growth between 1.2-1.3mln BPD (vs 1.24mln BPD in Jan OMR), according to IEA Executive Director Birol cited by BBG TV. IEA expects more comfortable oil markets and moderate prices this year. Oil supply growth will more than satisfy demand this year. OPEC+ is largely showing good discipline with cuts. Warns against moves that push oil prices up.
OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais stands by long-term demand outlook; says Saudi decision to postpone capacity expansion should not be misconstrued as a view demand is falling; voluntary cuts show OPEC+ flexibility. Sees strong global economy this year with positive implications. Market is in a good state and rather stable.
EIA said US oil output from top shale-producing regions in March is due to climb to its highest since December 2023.
American Petroleum Institute sues the Biden administration over offshore drilling curbs, according to FT
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli warplanes reportedly bombed areas in northern Rafah, according to Al Arabiya via social media platform X.
The heads of the CIA and Israel’s Mossad spy agency are expected to hold talks with senior Egyptian and Qatari officials on Tuesday in a bid to revive negotiations on a deal to stop the war and release hostages, according to FT sources.
France’s proposal for a truce on the Lebanon-Israeli border was delivered to Lebanon by France which called for fighters including Hezbollah elite forces to withdraw 10km away from the Israel border and aims to enforce a potential ceasefire when the conditions are right, while the proposal also called for the resumption of talks to demarcate the border. Hezbollah official Fadlallah said the group won’t discuss the matter relating to south Lebanon before the Israeli offensive in Gaza stops and that Israel is not in a position to impose conditions.
Russia’s Kremlin said they invited Palestinian President Abbas and hope that he will visit Russia, according to RIA.
US military said Houthi militants fired two missiles from Yemen towards the ship Star Iris in the Bab Al-Mandeb, while the ship reported being seaworthy with minor damage and no injuries to the crew, according to Reuters.
“Israeli newspaper Haaretz: Some progress has been made in detainee deal negotiations in recent days”, according to Sky News Arabia
Iranian Revolutionary Guards says “if the enemy hits our ships, we will hit the same number or more”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Tasnim
Geopolitics: Other
White House said the US sees no indication there are about to be hostilities at the Venezuela-Guyana border.
Japanese PM Kishida is seeking a summit with North Korean leader Kim, according to FT.
US Event Calendar
06:00: Jan. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 89.9, est. 92.3, prior 91.9
08:30: Jan. CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%, revised 0.2%
Jan. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Jan. CPI YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 3.4%
Jan. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.9%
Jan. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.8%, revised 1.0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to inflation Tuesday as US CPI today will be a very important staging post for any Fed cuts this year. Before we preview this, this morning I’ve just published a new chart book with my colleague Galina Pozdnyakova for macro generalists on the Magnificent Seven. This group has become so big that they are effectively countries and not just companies now in scale. They have already impacted global risk sentiment in recent years and especially in recent months and no market participant can ignore them in whatever asset they look at. Their size has left the S&P 500 at its most concentrated since the 1929 bubble but in the pack we show how these companies are already as profitable as the entire stock market in many countries. We show a number of long term charts that explain how they arrived at this level of dominance and also highlight what happened to all the top 5 S&P 500 stocks over the last 60 years. It was a fun and fascinating pack to put together so hopefully you’ll find it useful in framing the discussion of their future. You can see it here.
Yesterday was one of the rarer sessions where the Magnificent Seven (-0.83%) clearly underperformed, with the pullback in tech sentiment leading the S&P 500 to a marginal decline (-0.09%). But it was also a day when a more prevalent theme this year of differentiation within the mega caps was evident. The reversal was led by a -2.81% decline for Tesla, which is now the second worst performer in the S&P 500 so far in 2024 (-24.3%). By contrast, Nvidia, which eked out a new all-time high yesterday (+0.16%), has been the best performing S&P 500 stock year-to-date, having already risen by +45.9%, adding $561bn in market cap. Just to hammer home the message from the chart book that you can’t ignore these stocks, this six-week gain for Nvidia is larger than the entire market cap of the largest company in Europe (Novo Nordisk at $540bn). Indeed, Nvidia briefly surpassed Amazon to be the 4th largest fully listed company in the world yesterday, rising more than 3% earlier in the session as chipmaker sentiment benefited from dramatic gains for ARM Holdings (+29.3% yesterday and +93.4% over the past three sessions) after its results last week. SoftBank is +6.3% higher overnight given its large stake in the chipmaker.
Elsewhere, small-caps out-performed, with a +1.75% gain for the Russell 2000 yesterday moving the index back into the black year-to-date (+0.90%). Banks also gained, with the S&P 500 banks group (+1.06%) seeing its strongest day since the New York Community Bancorp results two weeks ago, while the KBW index of regional banks was up +1.83%. This easing of banking sector concerns came even as NYCB itself ended the day near flat despite trading up by more than +12% early on. On this, Luke Templeman and Galina Pozdnyakova (she was busy yesterday) published their latest private capital monitor (link here) with a special look at the CRE market. In short private investors don’t seem to be too concerned. Over in Europe equities saw a solid rally, with the STOXX 600 +0.54%, DAX (+0.65%) and CAC (+0.55%) all higher – a similar gain to the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (+0.63%).
Supporting the risk on mood outside of tech was the NY Fed inflation expectation report, which showed that 3-year inflation expectations fell to 2.35% (from 2.62%), its lowest level since 2013. 1-year inflation expectations were largely unchanged at 3.00% (previously 3.01%). With today’s US CPI report, given that seasonally adjusted gas prices were down almost 2.5% in January from December, our US economists expect headline CPI to come in at +0.15% (vs. +0.23% previously, consensus +0.2%), with core more elevated at +0.27% (vs. +0.28% previously, consensus +0.3%). This would see core YoY CPI falling two-tenths to 3.7%, and headline down by four-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with consensus. Chair Powell shifted his attention in the January Fed press conference from the three- and six-month annualised rates to year-on-year rates so we expect the market to refocus on these numbers. See our economists preview here.
Talking of the Fed, the speakers yesterday continued to caution regarding Fed cuts, albeit largely reiterating their recent comments. A known hawk, Fed Governor Bowman stated it is still “too soon to project when, how much the Fed will cut rates”, as “many risks remain for the Fed’s inflation fight”. Richmond Fed President Barkin noted that while the Fed was closing in on its inflation target, it was not there yet as there was “a real risk that there will be continued inflationary pressure”.
Against this backdrop, market expectations of Fed rate cuts saw little change, with a slightly less than one in five chance priced in that the Fed cuts by 25bps at the March meeting and an unchanged 112bps of cuts priced by December. Treasury yields were flat on the day, with the 10yr up +0.4bps while 2yr yields fell -0.6bps.
On the other hand, in Europe, the ECB’s Wunsch commented that there was “no big risk in waiting or not for data” in terms of deciding when to cut, as markets have already priced in future rate cuts which provide some easing for financial conditions even before a cutting cycle begins. Expanding, he suggested there was not a “huge difference” whether to start rates cuts earlier and proceed gradually or “wait a bit more and then go faster”. Market expectations of ECB rate cuts saw a moderate rise, with chances of a cut by April up to 60% from a three-month low of 52% on Friday. And the amount of cuts expected by the December meeting rose by +6.2bps on the day to 120bps. 10yr bund yields fell -2.0bps, with a stronger rally in OATs (-2.9bps) and BTPs (-5.7bps).
Talking of Europe and in light of the weekend NATO comments on the US election campaign trail, our German economists yesterday put out a note on potential catalysts for a fiscal regime change in Germany (including uncertainty around NATO post the US election) and then present three potential scenarios for the 2025 budget. See it here.
Asian equity markets are higher but with many still on holiday. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (+2.57%) is sharply higher sustaining its previous gains and making fresh 34-year highs with the KOSPI (+1.01%) also starting the day on a positive note. Chinese markets will remain closed for the week but the Hang Seng will resume trading tomorrow. S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.20%) futures are ticking lower. Treasury yields are flat.
In other notable market moves yesterday, Bitcoin (+3.23%) broke through the $50,000 level for the first time since December 2021, supported by the recent spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC (more on that here), though it retreated to a touch below this level at the close and as I type.
To the day ahead now, data releases include the US January CPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK January jobless claims, December average weekly earnings, Germany and Eurozone February Zew survey, Germany December current account balance and the French Q4 ilo unemployment rate. Finally, we will have earnings releases from Coca-Cola, Shopify, Airbnb, Zoetis, Marriott, Biogen, and Restaurant Brands.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities softer as US CPI looms, GBP bid post-jobs data & CHF lags after cooler CPI, Crude firmer – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 06:06 AM
European equities are softer across the board, with Tech lagging following poor Siltronic guidance, weighing on heavyweight ASML (-2.7%)
US equity futures mirror price action in Europe, though the NQ slightly underperforms.
Dollar is flat and awaiting US CPI; GBP is bid post-UK jobs data and CHF suffers after significantly cooler CPI
Bonds are divergent, with USTs in a holding pattern ahead of US inflation, whilst Gilts were pressured on the regions jobs/wage data, since pared
Crude is firmer and near session highs, base metals modestly firmer
Looking ahead, US CPI, OPEC MOMR, Earnings from Moody’s, Marriott & Datadog.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%), initially opened on a mixed footing before dipping into the red as sentiment waned throughout the early hours. The Eurostoxx50 (-0.7%) is dragged down by Tech names Infineon (-2.3%), SAP (-2.3%) and ASML (-3.8%), after Siltronic (-8.1%) issued a profit warning.
European sectors are generally lower, though the overall breadth of the market is fairly narrow (ex-Tech). Tech is the clear laggard, after Siltronic announced poor guidance. Healthcare marginally outperforms after GSK (+1.1%) received a broker upgrade at Citi.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.6%, RTY -0.4%) are softer across the board, with price action generally following that seen in European trade. The docket for today sees US CPI where expectations are for the headline to cool to 0.2% (prev. revised 0.3%).
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
USD firmer vs. most peers but gains tentative as US CPI looms large. DXY incrementally took out yesterday’s best of 104.27 with the next upside target the 8th Feb high at 104.43.
EUR is contained within Monday’s 1.0756-1.0805 range with that session’s venture above 1.08 unconvincing. However, a soft US CPI print could change that and prompt a test of the 200DMA at 1.0829.
GBP is the best performer vs. the USD and EUR/GBP is at its lowest level since August post-jobs data. Cable shot to a high of 1.2655, matching yesterday’s best but stopped ahead of its 21DMA at 1.2665.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD but to varying degrees with NZD more so, following soft inflation expectation survey data. NZD/USD has now pared all of Friday’s upside. AUD remains rangebound since printing a YTD low last week with AUD/USD chopping and changing around the 0.65 mark.
CHF is the worst performer across the majors following soft Swiss CPI metrics which have boosted the odds of a March SNB cut to over 50% from 28%. EUR/CHF advanced to a high of 0.9493 (highest since Dec 18th) with all eyes on a potential test of 0.95.
Bunds were initially bearish as the complex reacted to hawkish UK wage data, resulting in the 133.28 session trough. This move has now entirely pared and back towards session highs of 133.65, after an additional boost on a well-received German outing.
USTs moved in tandem with Bunds post-UK data, but magnitudes more limited as we await US CPI where downward inflation trends are expected to be evident once again, headline & core seen easing further.
Gilts opened lower by 20 ticks from Monday’s 97.68 close and thereafter slipped incrementally further to a 97.42 trough as the benchmark reacted to the earlier UK data. However, the move has since pared with Gilts now back towards the mentioned close as focus turns to upcoming events today before UK inflation & GDP later in the week.
Germany sells EUR 3.292bln vs exp. EUR 4.0bln 2.10% 2029 Bobl: b/c 2.30x, average yield 2.30%, and retention 17.68%.
UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L: b/c 2.97x (prev. 2.68x) and real yield 0.634% (prev. 0.724%).
Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 7-8.5bln 2.95% 2027, 3.70% 2030, 4.00% 2030, and 4.45% 2043 BTP.
Crude complex trades with gains after settling relatively flat yesterday, although off Monday’s intraday troughs amid heightened geopolitics and Saudi jawboning. Trade is within a tight range as markets look ahead to the OPEC Monthly Oil Report followed by US CPI. Upside in crude prices coincided with commentary from the OPEC Sec Gen with Brent near peaks of USD 82.50/bbl.
Precious metals hold an underlying bid despite the somewhat resilient pre-CPI Dollar and steady USTs, potentially propped up by the ongoing geopolitical developments which are showing no signs of cooling; XAU found support at USD 2,016.67/oz as it eyes its 21 DMA (USD 2,027.66/oz) to the upside.
Base metals are modestly firmer despite the resilient Dollar and subdued risk tone, with no obvious catalyst to explain broader base metals’ price action, whilst Chinese markets remain on holiday.
Morgan Stanley raises oil demand growth forecast to 1.5mln BPD (prev. 1.3mln BPD) and reduces non-OPEC growth forecast to 1.5mln BPD (prev. 1.7mln BPD); bringing the two in-line.
IEA sees 2024 global oil demand growth between 1.2-1.3mln BPD (vs 1.24mln BPD in Jan OMR), according to IEA Executive Director Birol cited by BBG TV. IEA expects more comfortable oil markets and moderate prices this year. Oil supply growth will more than satisfy demand this year. OPEC+ is largely showing good discipline with cuts. Warns against moves that push oil prices up.
OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais stands by long-term demand outlook; says Saudi decision to postpone capacity expansion should not be misconstrued as a view demand is falling; voluntary cuts show OPEC+ flexibility. Sees strong global economy this year with positive implications. Market is in a good state and rather stable.
EIA said US oil output from top shale-producing regions in March is due to climb to its highest since December 2023.
American Petroleum Institute sues the Biden administration over offshore drilling curbs, according to FT
BoE reportedly plans to stress test insurers on exposure to reinsurance firms, according to FT.
Riksbank’s Jansson says hard to believe that rates could be cut at each meeting when the time comes for rate cuts to be lowered. There is not a zero chance that the first rate cut could come after this summer. Can not exclude that we could cut rates before Fed and ECB.
DATA RECAP
ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.8% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.9%)A hawkish release that spotlights some of the inflation persistence that hawks at the BoE have been highlighting; sparked initial upside in the Pound and downside in Bunds (pre-Gilt open) – click here for more
Swiss CPI YY (Jan) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%); CPI MM (Jan) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.0%)The much cooler than forecast print is at odds with recent remarks from SNB Chair Jordan that Swiss inflation “probably accelerated in January” and that he expected inflation to rise again a little bit to remain shy of 2.0% in 2024; a release that sparked immediate and sustained CHF pressure – click here for more
French ILO Unemployment Rate (Q4) 7.5% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.4%, Rev. 7.5%)
EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Feb) 25.0 (Prev. 22.7)
German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) -81.7 vs. Exp. -79.0 (Prev. -77.3); ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 19.9 vs. Exp. 17.5 (Prev. 15.2)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Senate voted 66-33 to advance the aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan for a possible Wednesday vote on passage. However, it was separately reported that House Speaker Johnson rejected the Senate’s Ukraine and Israel aid bill as written and indicated his Republican-led chamber would not take up the bill to provide billions in additional aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to AFP.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli warplanes reportedly bombed areas in northern Rafah, according to Al Arabiya via social media platform X.
The heads of the CIA and Israel’s Mossad spy agency are expected to hold talks with senior Egyptian and Qatari officials on Tuesday in a bid to revive negotiations on a deal to stop the war and release hostages, according to FT sources.
France’s proposal for a truce on the Lebanon-Israeli border was delivered to Lebanon by France which called for fighters including Hezbollah elite forces to withdraw 10km away from the Israel border and aims to enforce a potential ceasefire when the conditions are right, while the proposal also called for the resumption of talks to demarcate the border. Hezbollah official Fadlallah said the group won’t discuss the matter relating to south Lebanon before the Israeli offensive in Gaza stops and that Israel is not in a position to impose conditions.
Russia’s Kremlin said they invited Palestinian President Abbas and hope that he will visit Russia, according to RIA.
US military said Houthi militants fired two missiles from Yemen towards the ship Star Iris in the Bab Al-Mandeb, while the ship reported being seaworthy with minor damage and no injuries to the crew, according to Reuters.
“Israeli newspaper Haaretz: Some progress has been made in detainee deal negotiations in recent days”, according to Sky News Arabia
Iranian Revolutionary Guards says “if the enemy hits our ships, we will hit the same number or more”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Tasnim
OTHER
White House said the US sees no indication there are about to be hostilities at the Venezuela-Guyana border.
Japanese PM Kishida is seeking a summit with North Korean leader Kim, according to FT.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continues to hold above the USD 50k mark and Ethereum (+1.2%) plays catch-up.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed albeit with a positive bias as several markets reopened from the extended weekend.
ASX 200 was choppy as gains in mining, utilities and financials were offset by weakness in healthcare, telecoms and tech, while data showed an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment but NAB Business Confidence and Conditions were mixed.
Nikkei 225 outperformed and extended on its highest levels since February 1990 as the earnings deluge resumed.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
RBA’s Head of Economic Analysis Kohler said inflation is coming down but is still too high and it will take some time for inflation to get back within the 2%-3% target range and based on their central forecast, inflation is expected to return to the target range in 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026. Furthermore, Kohler said services price inflation remains high and broadly based, while she also noted that high inflation, higher tax payments and higher interest rates have significantly reduced household incomes.
Brussels is now reportedly preparing to sanction four Chinese entities which it believes are helping the Kremlin buy European dual-use goods, according to a draft of the proposal cited by Politico
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Jan) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%); Corp Goods Price YY (Jan) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.2%)
Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) 86.0 (Prev. 81.0); Westpac Consumer Sentiment MM (Feb) 6.2% (Prev. -1.3%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jan) 1.0 (Prev. -1.0); NAB Business Conditions (Jan) 6.0 (Prev. 7.0)
SHANGHAI CLOSED XXX //Hang Seng CLOSED XXX /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 1066.55 PTS OR 2.89% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.16% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed XXXX
//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2151 /Oil UP TO 76.88 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82..48/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
Three IDF soldiers were killed and around 10 were wounded in Gaza on Monday either by a Hamas improvised explosive or by an anti-tank missile attack.
The Hamas attacker either activated the explosive or fired the missile on the structure where the soldiers were basing themselves at the time.
Some of the soldiers were flown by helicopter to Shaarei Tzedek Medical center, while others were flown to Beilin Medical Center.
Since the IDF withdrew around 70% of its forces from Gaza, starting in early January, and also began to follow patterns of trying to base soldiers in specific areas of control as opposed to constantly moving to invade and actively take apart Hamas’s battalions, there have been more incidents of Hamas succeeding at surprise attacks against larger numbers of soldiers residing inside structures.
Israeli soldiers make their way towards Israel’s border with Gaza, amid the ongoing ground invasion against Hamas, in southern Israel, November 8, 2023 (credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
Adjustments still critical
Although the IDF had said after prior cases that it would adjust its procedures to avoid such large-scale ambushes, it appears that it still has not adjusted sufficiently to prevent Hamas surprise attacks from small cells armed with anti-tank missiles.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL /HAMAS/KHAN YOUNIS
IDF continues in Khan Younis where they killed over 30 terrorists
(Jerusalem Post)
IDF’s operations in Gaza’s Khan Yunis continue, over 30 terrorists killed
While continuing operations in the center of Gaza, combat soldiers in the Nahal Brigade killed approximately 30 terrorists during the past few days.
As IDF soldiers continued to operate in west Khan Yunis and push forward their offensive, the soldiers of the 7th Armored Brigade killed over 30 terrorists in clashes in the city, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said Tuesday morning.
Paratroopers killed terrorists who attempted to hide themselves among the civilian population, and soldiers in the 414 Nesher Intelligence Battalion identified and killed terrorists carrying explosives on motorcycles.
When one of the terrorists was spotted pointing a gun at an IDF vehicle, the soldiers reacted immediately and killed the terrorist.
Combat soldiers increase operational control of Khan Yunis
The combat soldiers in the 7th Armored Brigade continued deeper into Khan Yunis, increasing the operational control of the area, carrying out raids on terrorist infrastructures, and performing sniper ambushes and patrols.
The firepower of the 98th Division’s firepower targeted attacks at two ammunition warehouses located within terrorist homes.
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, February 13, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
While continuing operations in the center of Gaza, combat soldiers in the Nahal Brigade killed approximately ten terrorists during the past few days.
As part of the operations, the brigade’s firepower identified a group of terrorists entering a building in which they were preparing to launch an anti-tank missile at the IDF.
Within minutes, the terrorists were surrounded, and a combat aircraft killed all the terrorists in the group.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
Israeli delegation with the Mossad head leave for Cairo for hostage talks
(Jerusalem Post)
Israeli delegation, with Mossad head, to leave for Cairo on Tuesday for hostage talks
Mossad Head David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronan Bar, and IDF Lt.-Gen. Nitzan Alon will leave on Tuesday for a meeting in Cairo with CIA Director William J. Burns, Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel, and the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al-Thani, Maariv reported on Monday citing a senior Israeli official.
During the meeting, they will discuss efforts to free more hostages from Hamas captivity.
end
Families of Israeli hostages to file war crimes complaint against Hamas in The Hague
Some 100 relatives of Israelis held in Gaza will submit charges of kidnapping, sexual violence, torture and other allegations to the International Criminal Court on Wednesday
Hili Cooper (left) and Or Nohomovitch (right), tell protesters how they miss their grandfather, Amiram Cooper, held hostage in Gaza, at a rally for the release of Israelis kidnapped by Hamas terrorists, at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, February 10, 2024. (Hostage and Missing Families Forum)
Some 100 family members of Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity in Gaza are set to file a complaint of war crimes Wednesday against the leaders of the terror organization at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Over the past four months, lawyers for the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which is representing the hostages’ relatives, have prepared a legal submission demanding that arrest warrants be issued against the Hamas leadership for the October 7 atrocities.
Several dozen lawyers together with around 100 representatives of the families of the hostages will file the complaint, while the forum says it expects several thousand Dutch Jews to turn up at the ICC for the submission.
It is believed that 130 hostages abducted by Hamas during its savage October 7 assault remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released prior to that. Three hostages have been rescued by troops, and the bodies of 11 hostages have been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military.
The complaint will include charges against Hamas leaders of “kidnapping, crimes of sexual violence, torture and other serious allegations,” the forum said in a statement to the press.
Work on the submission to the ICC was led by Dr. Shelly Aviv Yeini of the Minerva Center for the Rule of Law under Extreme Conditions at the University of Haifa along with attorney Yuval Sasson from the Meitar Law Offices firm, which assigned several dozen lawyers to help draft the complaint.
The International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, on March 31, 2021. (Peter Dejong/AP)
The Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights also participated in preparing the submission.
The forum said that the “short-term goal” of the complaint was to obtain arrest warrants against Hamas leaders, which, it added, would “exert significant pressure to have the remaining hostages freed and serve as a mechanism for bringing about justice to the victims and their families.”
Prof. Robbie Sabel of the Faculty of Law at the Hebrew University noted that the ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Kahn, has already stated that he is carrying out an investigation into Hamas’s actions, as well as Israel’s military operation in Gaza.
But he added that the submission by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum could help further advance the investigation into Hamas.
“If further evidence can be presented to the ICC then this may encourage the prosecutor to advance the investigation,” said Sabel. “The more information he has the more pressure there is to advance the investigation.”
Sabel said that Khan has “a reputation for being a fair and reasonable lawyer” but added that he was “of course subject to public pressure.”
He also cautioned that it typically takes a significant period of time for the ICC to issue arrest warrants after a complaint is filed.
The ICC can prosecute individuals for serious violations of the Geneva Conventions that amount to war crimes, based on complaints submitted by international organizations, individuals, or parties to the court, while the court itself can also initiate examinations and investigations into possible violations of the laws of armed conflict.
In March 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the commissioner for children’s rights in the Office of the President, for the war crimes of the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied Ukraine to the Russian Federation, a year after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Palestinian Authority accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in 2015, giving the court jurisdiction over Palestinian citizens in Palestinian territories, including Gaza. Israel has not ratified the Rome Statute, which established the ICC, and therefore sees itself as not subject to the court’s jurisdiction.
Police release dramatic footage from the hostage rescue operation in southern Gaza’s Rafah early Monday morning.
The headcam video shows officers of the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit breaching into the building where Fernando Marman and Louis Har were being held.
The officers killed three Hamas terrorists guarding the pair and extracted the two hostages.
The two hostages were then taken by the forces in armored vehicles out of Rafah, then put in a military helicopter that brought them to Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan for examination, where both are listed in good condition
The IDF says it carried out strikes on Hezbollah positions, including buildings where members of the terror group were operating.
Sites hit by fighter jets in the south Lebanon towns of Houla, Qalaat Debba, Yaroun, Meiss al-Jabal, Yarine, and Chihine included several buildngs, observation posts, and other Hezbollah infrastructure, according to the IDF.
Earlier today, another site used by Hezbollah was struck in the town of Ramyeh, and troops also shelled areas in south Lebanon with artillery, the IDF adds.
The strikes come after several Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks today, including a projectile that hit Kiryat Shmona, seriously wounding a mother and son.
מטוסי קרב תקפו לפני זמן קצר מספר מבנים צבאיים של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה בהם פעלו מחבלי הארגון, עמדת תצפית ותשתיות נוספות של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה במרחב הכפרים חולא, קלעת דבה, יארון, מיס אל ג׳בל, יארין ושיחין שבדרום לבנון >>
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ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON/FRANCE
France proposes Hezbollah withdrawal, border talks for Israel-Lebanon truce
The plan aims to end fighting between Hezbollah and Israel at the border. The hostilities have run in parallel to the Gaza war and are fueling concern of a ruinous, all-out confrontation.
By REUTERS FEBRUARY 13, 2024 01:36Updated: FEBRUARY 13, 2024 13:14
HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS take part in a military exercise during a media tour organized for the occasion of Resistance and Liberation Day, in Aaramta, Lebanon, last month.(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
France has delivered a written proposal to Beirut aimed at ending hostilities with Israel and settling the disputed Lebanon-Israel frontier, according to a document seen by Reuters that calls for fighters including Hezbollah’s elite unit to withdraw 10 km (6 miles) from the border.
The plan aims to end fighting between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel at the border. The hostilities have run in parallel to the Gaza war and are fueling concern of a ruinous, all-out confrontation.
The document, the first written proposal brought to Beirut during weeks of Western mediation, was delivered to top Lebanese state officials including Prime Minister Najib Mikati by French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne last week, four senior Lebanese and three French officials said.
It declares the aim of preventing a conflict “that risks spiraling out of control” and enforcing “a potential ceasefire, when the conditions are right” and ultimately envisions negotiations on delineation of the contentious land border between Lebanon and Israel.
Hezbollah rejects formally negotiating a de-escalation until the war in Gaza ends, a position reiterated by a Hezbollah politician in response to questions for this story.
Israeli soldiers guard the northern Israeli border with Lebanon, while Lebanese soldiers work on their side of the border, on May 16, 2023. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
While some details of similar mediation efforts by US Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein have been circulating in recent weeks, the full details of the French written proposal delivered to Lebanon have not previously been reported.
The three-step plan envisages a 10-day process of de-escalation ending with the border negotiations.
One French diplomatic source said the proposal had been put to the governments of Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah.
France has historical ties with Lebanon. It has 20,000 citizens in the country and some 800 troops as part of a UN peacekeeping force.
“We made proposals. We are in contact with the Americans and it’s important that we bring together all initiatives and build peace,” Sejourne told a news conference on Monday.
The plan proposes Lebanese armed groups and Israel would cease military operations against each other, including Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
Several non-state groups, including Palestinian factions, have mounted attacks on Israel from south Lebanon during the latest hostilities, though Hezbollah is the dominant power in the area with a fighting force widely seen to outgun the Lebanese army.
The Lebanese armed groups would dismantle all premises and facilities close to the frontier, and withdraw combat forces – including Hezbollah’s elite Radwan fighters and military capabilities such as antitank systems – at least 10 km north of the frontier, the document proposes.
Any such withdrawal could still leave Hezbollah fighters much closer to the border than the 30 km (19 mile) withdrawal to Lebanon’s Litani River, stipulated in a UN resolution that ended a war with Israel in 2006.
The shorter withdrawal would help ensure rockets did not reach villages in northern Israel that have been targeted with anti-tank missiles and was a compromise seen as more palatable to Hezbollah than a retreat to the Litani, one Western diplomat with knowledge of the two-page proposal said.
Up to 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the border region of south Lebanon, a Hezbollah political stronghold where the group’s fighters have long melted into society at times of calm.
Asked about the proposal, senior Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah told Reuters that the group would not discuss “any matter related to the situation in the south before the halt of the aggression on Gaza.”
“The enemy is not in the position to impose conditions,” added Fadlallah, declining to comment on details of the proposal or whether Hezbollah had received it.
One of the Lebanese officials said the document brings together ideas discussed in contacts with Western envoys and had been passed on to Hezbollah. French officials told the Lebanese it was not a final paper, after Beirut raised objections to parts of it, the Lebanese official said.
An Israeli official said such a proposal had been received and was being discussed by the government.
Reuters reported last month that Hezbollah had rebuffed ideas suggested by Hochstein, who has been at the heart of the efforts, but that it had also kept the door ajar to diplomacy.
Asked for comment for this story, a State Department spokesperson said the United States “continues to explore all diplomatic options with our Israeli and Lebanese counterparts to restore calm and avoid escalation.” The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Lebanese official said several elements prompted concern in Beirut, including the demand armed groups dismantle premises and facilities close to the border, which the official said was vaguely worded and could be used to demand moves against Hezbollah-affiliated civilian institutions.
‘Unclear’ elements in the negotiation process
Tens of thousands of people have fled homes on both sides of the border since the fighting began on Oct. 8.
Israeli strikes have killed nearly 200 people in Lebanon, 170 of them Hezbollah terrorists. Attacks from Lebanon have killed 10 soldiers and five civilians in Israel.
But the strikes have mostly been contained to areas near the border and both sides have said they want to avoid all-out war.
Numerous Western envoys have visited Beirut to discuss ways to de-escalate the fighting, mostly meeting with Lebanese state officials rather than Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
One of the Lebanese officials said a French technical delegation returned to Beirut two days after Sejourne’s visit to discuss details, following the Lebanese objections.
Another of the Lebanese officials said Beirut had not responded to the proposal, adding that it was neither signed nor dated and was therefore not deemed official enough to warrant a response.
The proposal takes a three-step approach
The proposal recalls a ceasefire which ended a war between Hezbollah and Israel in 1996, and also UN Security Council resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 war.
It maps out three steps over 10 days.
The two sides would cease military operations in step one. Within three days, step two would see Lebanese armed groups withdrawing combat forces at least 10 km north of the frontier and Lebanon would initiate the deployment of soldiers in the south. Israel would cease overflights into Lebanese territory.
As the third step, within 10 days, Lebanon and Israel would resume negotiations on delimiting the land border “in a gradual way” and with the support of the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL.
They would also engage in negotiations on a roadmap to ensure the establishment of an area free of any non-state armed groups between the border and the Litani river.
Hezbollah has previously signaled it could support the state negotiating a deal with Israel to settle the status of disputed areas at the border to Lebanon’s benefit.
One of the issues to address is financing for the Lebanese army, severely weakened by a severe financial crisis in Lebanon.
The proposal calls for an international effort to support the deployment of the Lebanese army with “financing, equipment, training.” It also called for “the socio-economic development of southern Lebanon.”
END
UNRWA/
They should be listed as a terror group:
(Jerusalem Post)
Victims of October 7 demand declaration of UNRWA as terror group
After October 7, the organization launched an initiative to establish a legal war room to coordinate legal efforts around the world, in defense of Israel and to initiate legal actions against Hamas.
Palestinian employees of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) take part in a protest against job cuts by UNRWA, in Gaza City September 19, 2018.(photo credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
An initiative to declare UNRWA a terrorist organization is being spearheaded by the Shurat HaDin Law Center, representing dozens of October 7 massacre victims.
Shurat HaDin’s initiative is targeted toward the Defense Ministry. The organization argues that there is a solid legal basis for such a designation. Their opinion, comprised of arguments that extend over eight pages, was submitted to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Should Gallant accept the proposal, he can exercise his authority to declare UNRWA a terrorist organization but would be subjected to Shin Bet security recommendation services.
The President of the Law Center, attorney Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, commented, “Now it is clear to everyone that UNRWA has opened its doors to Hamas terrorists in an unprecedented way. In the guise of a humanitarian organization that perpetuates a false and dangerous historic narrative, they have themselves become a central headquarters of a terrorist organization, some of whose employees murdered innocent Jews with their own hands.”
The current initiative comes in light of the IDF’s recent revelation of the Hamas command center in the Hamas tunnels below UNRWA’s headquarters, which operates on behalf of the UN in the Gaza Strip.
Darshan-Leitner continued, “UNRWA is no longer a humanitarian agency – its become a full-scale jihadi group. This provides all the grounds and legal evidence for the Defense Minister to declare them a terrorist organization. This designation is the necessity of the hour in order to prevent the next victims of terrorist violence and expedite the collapse of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.”
Shurat HaDin founder Nitsana Darshan-Leitner (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)
Shurat HaDin’s primary objective, according to its website, is to fight terrorism and safeguard Jewish rights worldwide. Based in Tel Aviv, the law center combats boycott, divestment, and sanction initiatives and challenges those who seek to delegitimize the Jewish State. Advertisement
UNRWA was established in 1949 as the UN’s body to aid Arabs displaced during Israel’s War of Independence. It has since extended refugee status to the descendants of those displaced, allowing these families to claim refugee status for the past 75 years.
While initially serving around 750,000 refugees, the organization now supports nearly six million.
Shurat HaDin’s past legal action
After October 7, the organization launched an initiative to establish a legal war room to coordinate legal efforts around the world, both in defense of Israel and to initiate legal actions against Hamas and its supporters.
In the past, the Law Center filed a formal complaint against the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor for biased and unethical conduct against the State of Israel. They also handle civil actions against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the PLO, the Palestinian Authority, and other non-state actors.
The revelation, under the direction of the Shin Bet, that IDF soldiers discovered a tunnel shaft near an UNRWA school sparked the latest lawsuit.
The shaft led to an underground tunnel that served as a significant base of Hamas’s military intelligence and passed under UNRWA’s central headquarters in the Gaza Strip. Many weapons were found inside the building’s offices, including guns, ammunition, grenades, and explosives.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Senior Hamas official nabbed in Jenin raid, says Shin Bet
Illustrative – Israeli soldiers check the documents of Palestinian approaching the entrance of the Jenin camp in the West Bank during a raid on December 13, 2023. (MARCO LONGARI/AFP)
A senior Hamas official was arrested during an operation in Jenin, according to a joint statement from the IDF, the Israel Police and the Shin Bet.
According to the statement, IDF reservists, Border Police officers and Shin Bet officers have arrested Omar Fayed, one of the heads of Hamas’s military infrastructure, during a joint operation.
Fayed has been involved in a number of recent shooting attacks on IDF soldiers and planning other attacks, the statement says.
Two members of the Israeli security forces were lightly wounded in the operation, the statement says.
END
USA/IRAQ/IRANIAN BACKED MILITIA
END
HOUTHIS/THE WEST
Houthis got confused as they struck a cargo ship heading for Iran
(Reuters)
Houthis strike cargo ship bound for Iran, causing minor damage
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired two missiles on Monday at an Iran-bound cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing minor damage to the vessel but no injuries, US military officials said.
The early morning strikes appeared to be the first time the Houthis have targeted an Iran-bound vessel since starting attacks on international shipping in solidarity with Palestinians over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, triggered by the Palestinian terror group’s October 7 attack.
“Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired two missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Bab al-Mandeb,” US Central Command says on the social media site X, formerly known as Twitter.
“Both missiles were launched toward MV Star Iris, a Greek-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged cargo vessel transiting the Red Sea carrying corn from Brazil.”
“The ship reports being seaworthy with minor damage and no injuries to the crew,” CentCom officials say on X. “Of note, the MV Star Iris’s destination is Bandar Iman Khomeini, Iran.”
The Houthis military spokesman, Yahya Saree, said in a televised statement the ship was American but maritime-shipping trackers said the Marshall Islands-flagged ship was Greek-owned.
The Star Iris had been transporting a corn cargo from Brazil to Iran, according to CentCom and ship tracking analysis from data and analytics group Kpler.
“The Star Iris, like every Iran-bound bulker, had not diverted away from the Red Sea, perhaps unafraid of attacks from Iran-backed Houthis who could be considered ‘friendly’ given the vessel’s destination,” said Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler.
“At a projected 4.5 million tons for this year, flows from Brazil make for the majority of Iran’s corn imports.”
A regional security official says the attack appeared designed to “show Iran does not control the Houthis and they act independently”, and that the Houthis had informed Tehran in advance.
Houthi militants in Yemen, who control the country’s most populous regions, have repeatedly fired on international commercial ships since mid-November. Their targets have been vessels with commercial ties to the United States, Britain or Israel, shipping and insurance sources say, but they have also targeted others.
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
a must read:
Putin will not lose this war according to Sen Ron Johnson and Elon Musk
(zerohedge)
“Vladimir Putin Will Not Lose This War”: Sen. Ron Johnson And Elon Musk Discuss Facing Reality In Ukraine
MONDAY, FEB 12, 2024 – 09:01 PM
Update (2100ET): During today’s Twitter Spaces, Elon Musk and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) discussed their opposition to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
“We all have to understand that Vladimir Putin will not lose this war… Losing to Vladimir Putin is existential to Vladimir Putin. Russia has four times the population and a much larger industrial base,” said Johnson, adding “Russia can produce 4.5 million artillery shells per year. We’re not even up to 1 million per year. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier right now is 43 years old.”
“If you’re worried about the people of Ukraine, you have to understand that probably 100,000 of their soldiers have been killed,” Johnson continued, adding “The only way this war ends is in a settlement, and every day that the war goes on, more Ukrainians and more Russian conscripts die, more civilians die, and more of Ukraine gets destroyed. Again, sending $60 billion as added fuel to the flames of a bloody stalemate makes no sense.”
Musk echoed Johnson’s sentiment, saying “As you said, there’s no way Putin is going to lose. If he backs off, he will be assassinated. And for those who want regime change in Russia, they should think about who is the person that could take out Putin?”
He also defended his record – saying “My companies have probably done more to undermine Russia than anyone. Space X has taken away two-thirds of the Russian launch business. Starlink has overwhelmingly helped Ukraine.”
BREAKING: Elon Musk and Senator Ron Johnson discuss their opposition to escalating the ongoing bloody stalemate in the War in Ukraine. Instead, advocating for peace negotiations to bring an end to the loss of lives and the destruction of Ukraine.
: “My companies have probably done more to undermine Russia than anyone. Space X has taken away two-thirds of the Russian launch business. Starlink has overwhelmingly helped Ukraine. My concern is exactly what you articulated. If you have an extended war of attrition, every day that goes by, you’re losing more Ukrainian people. They aren’t even Ukrainian boys anymore because they are running out of boys. And if you are going to spend lives, it must be for a purpose. Not just a mile back and forth. In fact, the lines aren’t moving. So, just every day, people die. As you said, there’s no way Putin is going to lose. If he backs off, he will be assassinated. And for those who want regime change in Russia, they should think about who is the person that could take out Putin? Is that person likely to be a peacenik? Probably not. They’re probably going to be even more hardcore than Putin.”
: “We all have to understand that Vladimir Putin will not lose this war… Losing to Vladimir Putin is existential to Vladimir Putin. Russia has four times the population and a much larger industrial base. Russia can produce 4.5 million artillery shells per year. We’re not even up to 1 million per year. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier right now is 43 years old. Some of Zelensky’s top aides say that even if the U.S. and its allies deliver all the weapons they have pledged, they don’t have the men to use them. If you’re worried about the people of Ukraine, you have to understand that probably 100,000 of their soldiers have been killed. The only way this war ends is in a settlement, and every day that the war goes on, more Ukrainians and more Russian conscripts die, more civilians die, and more of Ukraine gets destroyed. Again, sending $60 billion as added fuel to the flames of a bloody stalemate makes no sense. As evil of a war criminal as Putin is, he’s not going to lose this war, and our colleagues here just aren’t willing to accept that reality. They are living in a fantasy world thinking that Ukraine can win this thing.”
·
309.2K Views
On Monday, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) shared a memo sent to his Republican colleagues in Congress which outlines an “impeachment time bomb” hidden in the text of the Senate’s Ukraine funding bill in case Trump wins the November election.
According to the memo;
President Trump has said, in regard to the war in Ukraine, “We got to get that war settled and I’ll get it settled.” He has stated that he would resolve the war in 24 hours.
The bill includes $1.6 billion for foreign military financing in Ukraine, and $13.7 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. These funds expire on September 30, 2025 — nearly a year into the possible second term of President Trump. These are the exact same accounts President Trump was impeached for pausing in December 2019.
…
If President Trump were to withdraw from or pause financial support for the war in Ukraine in order to bring the conflict to a peaceful conclusion, “over the objections of career experts,” it would amount to the same fake violation of budget law from the first impeachment, under markedly similar facts and circumstances.”
According to Vance, Democrats “would seize on the opportunity to impeach him once again.”
I just sent the below memo to every one of my Republican colleagues in Congress. Buried in the bill’s text is an impeachment time bomb for the next Trump presidency if he tries to stop funding the war in Ukraine. We must vote against this disastrous bill.
“This is insane,” replied Elon Musk – who then arranged for a ‘spaces’ discussion on X which will include Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT), Vance, along with Vivek Ramaswamy and David Sacks, at 6PM E.T.
You can listen in by clicking into the post below:
·You can listen in by clicking into the post below:
🚨BREAKING: Elon Musk and Senator Ron Johnson discuss their opposition to escalating the ongoing bloody stalemate in the War in Ukraine.
Instead, advocating for peace negotiations to bring an end to the loss of lives and the destruction of Ukraine.@elonmusk: "My companies have… pic.twitter.com/89O09FkYGM
In Regina (Canada), city bus hits traffic light; in Lugano (Switzerland), SUV smashes into restaurant terrace; at Ireland’s Shannon Airport, 2 “medical emergencies” in one day
The story behind all these stories is the near-fatal toll of “vaccination.” One of the several ways in which “our free press” distracts us from this all-important story is to highlight the dramatic rescue following a “medical emergency,” as in the first four collected here:
UNITED STATES
Three “medical emergencies” at sea, each followed by an airlift:
Coast Guard rescues tourist from cruise ship after heart attack
February 9, 2024
Willemstad, Curaçao – On Wednesday, the Coast Guard successfully evacuated a 74-year-old American tourist suffering from severe respiratory problems and symptoms of a heart attack from a cruise ship. The vessel was anchored offshore, just northwest of Curaçao. To ensure the safety and well-being of the patient, a helicopter was promptly deployed for the necessary medical evacuation. Upon arrival at Hato Airport in Curaçao, the patient was transferred to waiting ambulance personnel, who transported him to the Curaçao Medical Center (CMC) for further medical examinations and treatment.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Elderly man airlifted off cruise ship off Monterey coast following medical emergency
February 8, 2024
A man was airlifted from a cruise ship near the coast of Monterey earlier this week, the U.S. Coast Guard said Wednesday. The 76-year-old man was on a Crown Princess vessel about 74 miles southwest of Monterey Bay when he had some sort of a medical emergency on Tuesday, the Coast Guard said. An Air Station San Francisco MH-65 Dolphin helicopter arrived and the crew hoisted the man and took him to emergency medical personnel at the Monterey Airport. From there he was taken to a hospital in Salinas, where he was last reported to be in stable condition, the Coast Guard said.
California Air Guard Saves Man on Sportfishing Vessel
February 5, 2024
Mountain View, Calif. – A fisherman who experienced multiple seizures and lost consciousness at sea is safely on land after being airlifted by the California Air National Guard’s 129th Rescue Wing. The Air Force Rescue Coordination Center activated the wing Jan. 31 due to a medical emergency aboard the Independence, a long-range sportfishing vessel based in San Diego, 300 nautical miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas. According to owner Paul Strasser, the 112-foot Independence left San Diego Jan. 27 for a 16-day fishing trip. The wing, working with the U.S. Coast Guard District 11, launched one of its U.S. Air Force HC-130J Combat King II aircraft from Moffett Air National Guard Base in Mountain View 1,200 nautical miles to the ship the night of Jan. 31. It delivered 300 pounds of medical supplies including tanks of oxygen, IV equipment and gauze for a doctor aboard the vessel. The doctor stabilized the fisherman and the vessel headed to Socorro Island, 370 miles off the western coast of Mexico. A second HC-130J took off from Moffett before sunrise Feb. 1 and flew to the island with a team of highly trained pararescuemen. At 9 a.m. Feb. 1, the fisherman was flown 285 miles north to Los Cabos International Airport in Cabo San Lucas while the pararescuemen provided medical care. Shortly before noon, the aircraft arrived at the airport and the Mexican Navy drove the fisherman by ambulance to a hospital for treatment.
Emergency responders bring accident victim ‘back to life’
February 8, 2024
Elkins, WV — One person was transported by helicopter to Ruby Memorial Hospital in Morgantown after a single-vehicle accident on the Beverly Five-lane across from the United Parcel Service center Tuesday morning. At approximately 5:42 a.m., deputies with the Randolph County Sheriff’s Office were dispatched to the accident after a citizen alerted 911 about witnessing a vehicle cross both lanes of traffic and go over an embankment, officials said. Sgt. Brice Cogar and Deputy Zack Pingley of the RCSO were first on scene and observed that a car had struck the guardrail, and the passenger side wheel and tire were separated from the vehicle, police said. Because the vehicle was traveling at a high rate of speed, it was able to continue beyond the guardrail before going over an embankment and striking several trees, despite it only having three wheels, according to officials. Pingley found the driver of the car unresponsive with a faint radial pulse, according to an RCSO press release. The Randolph County Emergency Squad arrived on scene and was unable to find a pulse on the driver. Life-saving measures were then administered on the driver and he was “brought back to life,” the release states. The driver, who was immediately flown to Morgantown, is suspected to have had a medical emergency while driving, police said. The name of the driver was not released by press time.
Truck Driver Suffers Medical Emergency, Damages 13 Parked Cars in Minersville
February 7, 2024
Minersville, PA – A truck driver damaged over a dozen parked vehicles Tuesday evening in Minersville. The incident occurred just before 9:00 pm when a tractor trailer was travelling down Sunbury Street and North Front Streets in Minersville. According to borough police, the driver suffered an undisclosed medical emergency and struck a total of 13 parked vehicles. The truck and the driver were found pulled over along Valley Road, near the Cass Township Municipal Building. Police and medical personnel responded and assisted the driver. Minersville Police say many vehicles were sideswiped, with some possibly being totaled. As of Wednesday morning, the driver remained hospitalized.
Elderly Driver Crashes Into La Plata School After Medical Emergency
February 7, 2024
La Plata, Missouri – An elderly driver apparently suffering a medical emergency sent their vehicle into a school in La Plata on Tuesday, Feb. 6. The patient was extricated following the crash at Grace Lutheran Church and School, according to photos shared by firefighters. The patient was hospitalized by EMS.
Driver suffers medical emergency, crashes Fort Mill school bus into tree
February 6, 2024
Fort Mill, S.C. — A local school bus crashed into a tree after the driver experienced a medical emergency Tuesday morning, according to Fort Mill Schools. No students were on the school bus at the time of the accident. Officials said a bus driver radioed dispatch for help as he drove along A.O. Jones Blvd before starting his route. However, the school system said the driver’s condition worsened, and he struck a tree while trying to pull the school bus over. Dispatch radioed emergency personnel, who took the man to the hospital.
Lexington, Ky. – A single-car accident sends one child to the hospital. According to Lexington Police, they were called to the 6100 block of Greenwich Pike around 2:30 p.m. on Saturday for a crash. Police say a juvenile was extricated from the vehicle and flown to U.K. Hospital with reported non-life threatening injuries. The driver was not harmed and was able to exit the vehicle on their own. Police say the driver had a medical emergency, causing them to go unconscious.
Bayville Woman’s Car Plunges into Waterway After Medical Incident
February 3, 2024
Berkley Township, NJ – A 66-year-old woman from Bayville experienced a medical emergency that resulted in her vehicle veering off the road and into a nearby waterway, state police reported. The incident occurred on Saturday morning near Shore Point Marina, where the car ended up 500 feet from the shore. Authorities discovered the woman post-incident, sitting on the hood of her submerged vehicle. She was rescued and transported to a local hospital, where she received treatment for her injuries sustained during the crash. The specifics of her medical emergency have not been disclosed. State police are currently investigating the circumstances leading up to the accident.
Regina city bus collides with traffic light following medical emergency
February 5, 2024
Regina, Saskatchewan – No charges will be laid after a collision between a Regina transit bus and a traffic light on Friday, Feb.2. The light post at the corner of Wascana Parkway and Kramer Boulevard was hit by a city bus before it was then dragged down the street. Police said when they arrived, the found the bus stopped at an angle on the side of the road just past the intersection. “Underneath the bus was a traffic light, which had been struck by the bus and dragged for approximately 150 yards before the vehicle came to a stop,” Regina police said in a news release Monday. At the time of the collision, there were roughly 24 passengers on the bus. Eight of them had minor injuries. Five passengers were taken to hospital by EMS as a precaution. Police say the driver was also taken to hospital as he appeared to be in medical distress. “(The) investigation determined the driver suffered a medical emergency resulting in the collision. No charges will be laid and no ticket will be issued as a result,” police said. Global News reporters on scene could see metal pieces from the light on the sidewalk, as well as scattered all over the road.
Medical emergencies on flights diverted to Shannon Airport see two patients taken to Limerick hospital
February 5, 2024
Two separate flights diverted to Shannon Airport this Monday afternoon due to medical emergencies on board. Air France flight 136, on the way from Paris Charles de Gaulle to Chicago, successfully landed at Shannon Airport at 3:41 pm after declaring a medical emergency. Shortly thereafter, American Airlines flight 195, traveling from London Heathrow to Phoenix, Arizona, also diverted to Shannon and safely landed at 5:37 pm. Upon their respective arrivals, emergency services and airport staff swiftly responded to the unfolding situations. Two passengers, one from each flight, were assessed by medical professionals and subsequently transported by ambulance to University Hospital Limerick for further treatment.
A 65-year-old Italian man drove into the outdoor area of a restaurant on Riva Vincenzo Vela in Lugano [Switzerland] shortly before 15 o’clock on Tuesday. Six people were taken to a hospital, according to police. Among them was also the driver of the SUV, who was in a serious condition Tuesday afternoon, according to police. According to an initial medical assessment, the five restaurant guests who were also taken to the hospital did not suffer any serious injuries. Another person was first treated at the scene of the accident. The man, who hails from Sardinia, was on his way towards the municipality of Paradiso when, for reasons that are still unclear, he lost control of his car, veered off the road and drove into the outside area of the restaurant, which is protected by glass panes.
He is very correct & remains a technical gaint, the lead of the Freedom Movement in terms of started it etc., a mentor of mine, as such, I see his point & ask same for Mead, Rose, Seneff et al. paper
McCullough is absolutely on point here for academic research publishing has become a political, incompetent, deceitful, biased affair, owned by pharma and IMO evil forces. see McCullough’s substack below and his concerns with how the abstract is written. IMO there must be no play with the language and we must be unequivocal, the Malone, Bourla, Bancel et a. mRNA technology and vaccine must be stopped complete, no more to no child, or adult or elderly. Under no condition. No more study of this. It never worked and is ineffective and harmful, deadly.
Electricity is among the most essential sources of America’s unparalleled prosperity and productivity; it is also the greatest vulnerability.
The United States has become so utterly dependent upon an uninterrupted supply of affordable electricity that, as our grid becomes ever more fragile American society has become fragile along with it.
Former CIA director James Woolsey testified before the U.S. Senate in 2015 that, if America’s electric grid were to go down for an extended period, such as one year, “there are essentially two estimates on how many people would die from hunger, from starvation, from lack of water, and from social disruption.
“One estimate is that within a year or so, two-thirds of the United States population would die,” Mr. Woolsey said. “The other estimate is that within a year or so, 90 percent of the U.S. population would die.”
Chris Keefer, president of Canadians for Nuclear Energy, concurred.
“The energy grid is a civilizational life support system, and without it, modern society collapses very quickly,” he said.
Mr. Keefer is one of the experts featured in energy analyst, author, and documentarian Robert Bryce’s new film, “Juice: Power, Politics and the Grid.” This five-part docuseries looks at how and why America is now “fragilizing” and destabilizing the engineering marvel that is the central pillar of our society.
“We are seeing the grid’s reliability, resilience, and affordability all declining,” Mr. Bryce told The Epoch Times. “We wanted to get people and policy makers to understand that our most important energy network is being fragilized, and we ignore this danger at our peril,” Mr. Bryce said.
He has been fixated on America’s electric grid for decades and authored the 2020 book, “A Question of Power,” one of the more comprehensive studies of how electricity grids work and why they may not work as well in the coming years.
Steven Pinker, author and Harvard psychology professor, wrote in a review of the book that “energy is our primary defense against poverty, disorder, hunger, and death.”
And yet, many nations in the West have engaged in a game of Russian roulette with their power grids, in an attempt to reduce global temperatures.
A ‘Dire Warning’
The warnings don’t just come from the analysts featured in the documentary; electricity regulators are becoming more vocal in sounding the alarm as well.
In a May 2023 report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), charged with overseeing grid reliability, stated that a majority of America’s grid is now at heightened risk levels for outages.
“This report is an especially dire warning that America’s ability to keep the lights on has been jeopardized,” National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson stated.
It was the near-collapse of Texas’s power grid during winter storm Yuri in 2021 that compelled Mr. Bryce to make the documentary. He partnered with film director Tyson Culver, who along with Mr. Bryce, experienced the crisis first-hand while living in Austin.
“I didn’t plan to make another documentary after we made our first film that we released in 2019,” he said. “I just thought, ‘I can’t do this; it costs too much and takes too long.’
“But then we learned that the [Texas] grid nearly failed, and if it had failed, tens of thousands of people would have died,” he said. “And we realized, if this could happen in Texas, the energy capital of the world, then the electric grid is really being undermined.”
The North American electric grid is rapidly being transitioned from one in which coal had once dominated to one that is seeing an ever increasing share of wind, solar, and natural gas. In the process, America’s electric grid is changing from something that was once so reliable that consumers rarely thought about it, to one that increasingly features rolling blackouts and may, one day soon, be on the brink of long-term failure.
The Fatal Trifecta
The destabilization of the power grid is the result of what analyst and author Meredith Angwin deems the “fatal trifecta.”
“The Texas grid almost collapsed because of what I call the fatal trifecta,” Ms. Angwin states. “The first part of the fatal trifecta is over reliance on renewables, which go on and off when they want to.
“The second part is over reliance on natural gas, which is delivered just in time and can be interrupted just in time,” she says. “And the third part is relying on a neighbor to help.”
All of these factors came into play during Texas winter storm Yuri in 2021. Wind and solar facilities were unable to deliver in freezing weather, and supplies of natural gas were interrupted by freezing temperatures as well, just as people needed electricity to heat their homes.
According to a Texas comptroller’s report, natural gas supplied 51 percent of Texas’ electricity; wind 25 percent; and coal 13 percent. As these sources went offline, utilities frantically enacted blackouts to cut demand, fearing that a mismatch of supply and demand that lasted more than several minutes would cause long-term damage to the grid’s hardware.
While Texas missed having a months-long outage of its electric grid by only a matter of minutes, the damage from short-term outages was severe.
“Rolling blackouts were intended to take stress off the power grid but turned into outages that—in some parts of the state—lasted several days,” the report stated. In that short time, at least 210 deaths were attributed to the outage, which also caused an estimated $195 billion in economic damage.
The third leg of the “fatal trifecta” is the ability of regions of the grid to support each other.
For all its fragmented sources, utilities, and regulations, the North American power grid is interconnected in a way that allows one region to shift electricity to another region if one has an excess and the other a shortfall. Utilities routinely rely on this to balance supply and demand at any given moment.
Increasingly, however, with excess reserves dwindling as coal plants are aggressively shut down across the United States, this ability to “phone a friend” is going away.
Following Europe and California
In many ways, Texas followed the lead of Europe and California in transitioning their grid to wind and solar energy, retiring coal plants and sometimes nuclear plants as well, to halt global warming and please anti-nuclear activists. Because wind and solar are weather-dependent, a dispatchable backup source is needed, and that source is typically natural gas.
As Europe, California, and Texas have learned, this transition creates vulnerability compared to coal and nuclear plants, where fuel can be stored on-site. It has also led to sharply increasing prices for electricity, as dual systems of power generation need to be built, along with additional transmission infrastructure.
According to a 2021 Princeton Study, relying on wind and solar to achieve net zero by 2050 would require America’s high-voltage transmission network to triple in size, at a cost of $2.4 trillion.
In what appears to be a surrender, or at least a retreat, from the net-zero transition, some European countries, like Germany, are restarting their coal plants as wind and solar fail to meet demand, even at inflated prices.
“What we see in Europe from this misguided infatuation with renewables is a stark warning, and I think we can see the same thing in California—skyrocketing electricity prices and no significant reduction in CO2 to speak of,” Mr. Bryce said.
At the same time, the drive to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions has led to political and corporate campaigns to shift ever more products onto the electric grid. This includes such essentials as home heating, transportation, and cooking.
Laws and regulations in Europe and the United States have sought to ban or phase out oil and gas heating in homes, along with gasoline-powered cars, trucks, and buses. The effect of this will be to make people more dependent on electricity while pushing up demand to levels that many say the grid cannot meet.
“The grid is already cracking under existing demand,” Mr. Bryce said. “We’re seeing the grid’s reliability, resilience, and affordability all declining, while these pressure groups are trying to put yet more demand on it.
“This is a date with disaster.”
Wind and Solar Devour Open Spaces
Added to this is the insatiable hunger of the wind and solar industry for the consumption of land.
According to a May report by The Nature Conservancy (TNC), reaching the goal of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 would consume more than 250,000 square miles, or 160 million acres, of land.
“With current siting practices, an area the size of Texas is required to accommodate the wind and solar infrastructure we need to reach nationwide net-zero emissions by 2050,” stated Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at TNC, a renewable energy advocate.
Many energy experts and environmentalists are coming to the conclusion that nuclear energy is the best choice to generate reliable, affordable energy, while cutting CO2 emissions. Despite headline nuclear catastrophes at plants in Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima, many countries are building new plants or delaying closures of existing nuclear plants, considering it the cleanest and least environmentally harmful source of electricity.
According to a report by the Nuclear Energy Institute, wind farms require up to 360 times as much land area to produce the same amount of electricity as a nuclear energy facility, and solar facilities require up to 75 times the land area. Compared to coal and natural gas plants, wind and solar consume at least 10 times as much land, according to the left-leaning Brookings Institution.
In addition to a smaller footprint, nuclear power stations also typically do not require the construction of thousands of miles of new transmission lines to reach remote locations, where wind and solar facilities are typically built.
With nuclear, Mr. Bryce said, “we don’t need to expand the grid; we can use the grid we have.”
Climate Activists Embrace Nuclear
Even ardent supporters of green-new-deal initiatives are starting to accept that nuclear must be at least part of the plan.
“What we’re seeing out of Congress, and to some extent out of this White House, is more accommodation for nuclear energy,” Mr. Bryce said.
A 2022 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that “France, the EU’s leading atomic state with nuclear weapons and fifty-six power reactors, is poised to launch a major reinvestment in nuclear power.”
Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Poland are also preparing to build new nuclear reactors, the report states, while other European nations—Austria, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, and Portugal—remain opposed to nuclear power.
California regulators, meanwhile, opted in December 2023 to keep the state’s nuclear facility at Diablo Canyon open through at least 2030, having previously ordered its closure in 2025. This is a retreat for a state that has been plagued with rolling blackouts as it jumped headlong into a wind and solar future.
“If we are going to agree that climate change is an issue, with more [weather] extremes for longer, it’s total insanity to make our most important energy network dependent on the weather,” Mr. Bryce said. “We need weather-resilient, weather-resistant generation, not weather-dependent generation.”
“With the Inflation Reduction Act and the investment tax credits, production tax credits, all of the financial incentives in the power-gen sector are to build more wind and solar,” he said. “To me, that is just absolute crazy town.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
PAKISTAN
Sharif’s PMLN may also be able to form a coalition with other parties and exclude the PTI from the government, Kugelman added.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0782 DOWN .0009
USA/ YEN 149 DOWN 0.064 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2672 UP .0045
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3552 DOWN .0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.16% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.16%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1066.55 [TS OR 2.89%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2027.00
silver:$22.84
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.96 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
So, with that said, a hot CPI print was all it took to steal the jam from this melt-up-market’s donut of exuberance.
The deer is back!
Small Caps collapsed – crashing almost 5% (worst day since June 2020). The S&P was down 2% – its worst day since Dec 2020 (worse than Feb 2023’s SVB crisis drop). Some late-day profit-taking painted some lipstick on this pig of a day…
‘Plot Twist’ as Hugh Hendry said: “This is me hearing about today’s inflation print…My biggest takeaway from aujourd’hui is that we just made next month really blinking important. “
“We were ripe for a pullback, right?” said a CNBC anchor, in some odd way trying to soothe investors.
Some L/S hedge funds had a good day as their shorts crashed (but their longs were not happy, and it’s been a bloodbath for them in the last week. However, we suspect this was as much about degrossing, closing longs and shorts, as any actual wins…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks plunged over 6% – the biggest decline since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks puked at the open, dup-buyers stepped in (as they do), but were then clubbed like a baby seal. This was MAG7’s 2nd worst day since October…
Source: Bloomberg
ARM was hammered…
But, of course, NVDA escaped with barely a fleshwound as panic-buyers stormed back in after the initial plunge…
Who could have seen this resurgence in inflation coming?
Well, we’ve been warning about ‘Animal Spirits 2.0’ for weeks as the lagged impact of the massive loosening of financial conditions last year flows wondrously into the real economy and lifts all economic expectation boats…
Source: Bloomberg
CPI’s hot, too damned hot! And being too hot, marked the death of hope for March rate cuts, forget May rate-cuts, at the moment the first cut is priced-in for June… and as of today’s less than 4 rate-cuts for the whole of 2024 (in fact just a 50% chance of 4 cuts, conditioned on 3 cuts). As a reminder, in mid-January (a month ago), the market was pricing in 170bps of cuts in 2024, now its half that…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields exploded higher after the CPI print (after bonds were aggressively bid into the print)…
Source: Bloomberg
…led by the short-end (2Y +17bps, 30Y +8bps) …
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve bear-flattened dramatically (2s30s -8bps) to its most inverted in six weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
And as bond prices plunged, the dollar soared, breaking above its 100DMA to its highest since November…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold puked back below $2000, erasing all the gains since the December FOMC…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rallied today, with WTI back above $78, breaking above its 100DMA and 200DMA (first time breaking above 100DMA since July 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
Messrs Biden and Powell have a problem – pump prices are about to soar…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended lower (after reaching $50k yesterday) but found serious support around $48,500 – quite impressive given the monkeyhammering that mega-cap tech got…
Source: Bloomberg
As Bitcoin ETF net inflows continue hot…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, skews had collapsed to pre-volmageddon levels into this sudden narrative collapse…
CPI Prints Hotter Than Expected In January As SuperCore Soared
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 08:40 AM
Expectations were for a big drop in the YoY consumer price index (from +3.4% to +2.9%) but instead it surprised to the upside (just as we warned) with a +3.1% YoY print for headline CPI (spoiling the sub-3% partiers). Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% exp) but the headline did decline from +3.4% to +3.1% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The 3-month annualized rate ticked up to 4% from 3.3%. The 6-month annualized rate was 3.7% (vs 3.2%). Not pretty.
Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May 2021, but the +3.86% YoY print was hotter than the 3.7% exp (with prices rising 0.4% MoM – the biggest jump since April 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
CPI Core: The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January.
The shelter index increased 0.6 percent in January, and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.6 percent over the month, while the index for rent increased 0.4 percent.
The lodging away from home index increased 1.8 percent in January.
Shelter disinflation slowed…
Rent inflation +6.09% YoY in Jan vs 6.47% in Dec
Shelter Inflation +6.04% YoY in Jan vs 6.15% in Dec
The motor vehicle insurance index increased 1.4 percent in January, and the recreation index rose 0.5 percent in January.
Among other indexes that rose in January were communication, personal care, airline fares, and education.
The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in January.
The index for hospital services increased 1.6 percent over the month and the index for physicians’ services increased 0.6 percent.
The prescription drugs index fell 0.8 percent in January.
The index for used cars and trucks fell 3.4 percent in January.
The index for new vehicles was unchanged in January.
The apparel index also decreased, falling 0.7 percent over the month.
Core Service inflation picked up MoM…
..and accelerated YoY
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, food and Energy services costs jumped MoM along with transportation services…
Here’s the biggest component upside surprises…
And one step deeper – the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index – soared 0.7% MoM (the biggest jump since Sept 2022…
… driving the YoY change up to +4.4% – the hottest since May 2023….
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, lower inflation does not mean lower prices.
Source: Bloomberg
The actual index of consumer prices hit a new record high this month – and is up over 18% since President Biden’s term began(it was up 8% over President Trump’s full four year term).
And it gets worse…
Source: Bloomberg
The re-accleration of inflation means wage growth is back in the red relative to prices.
end
MORNING TRADING
Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion Puke After Hot CPI Print Hammers Rate-Cut Hopes
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 09:02 AM
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth…”
The soft-landing, Fed-will-cut-and-save-us-all, but mega-cap-tech-to-the-moon narrative just got punched in the mouth by a CPI print so ugly I wouldn’t touch it with yours. Most significantly SuperCore – which The Fed has highlighted – soared higher…
CRE Crash Unfolding: “Yes That’s Not A Typo – It Literally Sold For $9 Per SQFT”
MONDAY, FEB 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM
In a commentary, Neil Callanan of Bloomberg highlighted, “The commercial real estate crash unfolding in the US is a natural consequence of quantitative easing.”
Callanan continued: ” … which intentionally pushed investors out of safer assets like bonds and into alternatives like private equity, malls, and warehouses.”
The journalist penned the note titled “The CRE Crash Is Part of the Price of Global Quantitative Easing” following the latest CRE rumblings with loan losses, reserve build, and dividend cuts announced by New York Community Bancorp, a regional bank with high exposure to multifamily and CRE lending across NYC. Also, sizable credit losses and/or write-downs of US CRE sparked chaos for lenders in Japan, Germany, and Canada as the dominoes began to fall.
Furthermore, Callanan referenced a National Bureau of Economic Research report revealing that 45% of all office loans are underwater. This report also cautioned that upwards of 300 regional banks could face solvency runs due to CRE turmoil at the end of the third quarter.
In a report last week, research firm Green Street estimated that appraised property values could sustain another 10% to reach fair valuations, which is bad news for lenders, particularly smaller ones with weak balance sheets.
X user Triple Net Investor posted the latest CRE catastrophe: “A 262k sq ft building in Ohio has just sold for $2.4 million, or $9 per sq ft.”
X user said, “Yes, that’s not a typo – it literally sold for $9 per sq ft.”
“The commercial real estate ‘correction’ has gone from concerning to an outright apocalypse, primarily impacting office properties in most cities across the US,” the user explained.
Barry Sternlicht, chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital, warned last summer that the CRE storm is entering “Category 5 hurricane” strength. He recently gave his take on the situation:
“The office market has an existential crisis right now… it’s a $3 trillion dollar asset class that’s probably worth $1.8 trillion [now].”
So, what’s ahead for the office market?
Well, more turmoil: Analysts led by Morgan Stanley’s Ronald Kamdem warned the most significant headwinds for Class A and Class B/C is years of supply, well above pre-Covid levels.
Class A office has about 18 years of supply, compared with the 2015-19 average of 13 years.
“The supply risk picture at the national level remains concerning and implies vacancy rates will likely remain under pressure,” Kamdem wrote.
And what happens if these buildings can’t find tenants and office owners can’t find financing?
Well, as Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley, warned in a note days ago: The CRE crisis will be with us for a long time.
end
(Mish Shedlock)
In their calculation, Mish is not including debt borrowed by Government to pay pensions.
that number is north of 7 trillion dollars. total debt 34.2 trillion dollars
The Fed Is Very Concerned Over Spending and Interest On The National Debt
A San Francisco Fed report highlights concern over Congressional spending that’s out of control, Social Security, Medicare, and rising interest on the national debt.
The U.S. federal debt is now roughly as large as the country’s annual GDP. A high and rising ratio of debt to GDP not only raises government borrowing costs but also risks pushing up long-run interest rates, which in turn can reduce investment and economic growth. The last time the debt as a share of GDP was this large was in 1945–1946, at the end of World War II (WWII). Over the following three decades, the debt-to-GDP ratio steadily fell, reaching roughly 25% by 1975. That 30-year decline contrasts sharply with the projected 30-year increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, reaching 172%, over 2024 to 2054, according to the latest current Congressional Budget Office projections (see CBO 2024).
The Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Lessons from World War II
There are two strong parallels between the current era and the WWII era when it comes to the federal debt. The first parallel is the sharp run-up in the primary deficit. Figure 1 shows that the primary deficit skyrocketed between 1941 and 1945, driven mainly by defense spending, reaching a peak of nearly 30% of GDP in fiscal year 1943. The primary deficit also increased sharply during the pandemic, reaching around 12% of GDP in both 2020 and 2021. Moreover, it already had increased substantially during and right after the Great Recession. Indeed, the cumulative increase in the primary deficit as a share of GDP from 2008 to 2021 was almost three-fourths the size of the cumulative increase from 1940 to 1946.
With a near-zero primary deficit, the direction of the debt-to-GDP ratio is determined by the second component, which is the debt-to-GDP ratio times the difference between the interest rate paid on debt and the rate of economic growth. This component was generally negative between 1945 and 1975, pushing down the debt-to-GDP ratio.
In sum, the United States was able to reduce its post-WWII debt ratio from a historic high of over 100% in 1946 to a historic low of roughly 25% in 1975 by a combination of a balanced primary budget and economic growth that surpassed the interest rate on debt.
Current Long-Run Fiscal Outlook
In the near term, the primary deficit is projected to shrink modestly due to the projection’s assumptions that the post-pandemic economic recovery will continue and that certain tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will be allowed to expire as scheduled.
However, over the long run, the primary deficit is projected to increase gradually until the early 2040s before plateauing around 2.7% of GDP.
The main source of the long-run upward pressure on the primary deficit is spending on mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Current legislated formulas used to determine spending per recipient for Social Security benefits and government health-care programs, especially Medicare, combined with the projected aging of the population, point to large increases in spending for these programs as a share of GDP. This pressure was absent after WWII because the overall U.S. population was younger and because Medicare was not enacted until 1965.
Balancing the primary budget, which was a key factor in the decline of the debt-to-GDP ratio after WWII, would be likely to require major reforms to spending programs or large increases in tax revenue.
The long-run rates of GDP growth and interest are the subject of active empirical research and careful consideration by policymakers. For instance, four times a year Federal Open Market Committee participants provide their forecast for each of these rates in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
As shown by the green shading in Figure 1 [second chart above], the CBO projects interest costs to grow as a share of GDP over the next 30 years. Two assessments underlie the CBO projections. First, investors in U.S. debt, expecting persistently high levels of borrowing from the government, would require relatively high interest rates to compensate for potential risk. And, second, those high interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses, which discourages investment. Lower investment, in turn, could lead to slower growth for productivity and GDP.
Conclusion
Without major reforms to mandatory spending programs such as Social Security and Medicare, or large tax increases, the primary deficit is expected to persist. This leaves the rate of economic growth relative to interest rates as the crucial factor determining the path of the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next few decades. Current projections of GDP growth are relatively low—lower than after WWII. However, new technological advances, such as artificial intelligence, could fuel a productivity-led boost to long-run economic growth. Events abroad could also increase the foreign demand for U.S. Treasury notes as a safe asset, helping to stave off projected increases in long-run U.S. interest rates.
Mish Synopsis
The current setup is nothing like the situation following WWII. Don’t expect another baby boom.
Instead, expect a massive wave of boomer retirements (already started) that will pressure Medicare and Social Security.
Depending on the kindness of foreigners to increase demand for US treasuries is not exactly a great plan.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will undoubtedly increase productivity. But that is not going to offset the willingness of Congress to spend more and more money on wars, defense, foreign aid, child tax credits, free education, and other free money handouts, while trying to be the world’s policeman.
The Fed is right to be concerned. It tried to list a couple of ways the problem is lessened, but counting on AI to be the savior seems far fetched.
“Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security,” Trump said in a two-minute video message posted to social media that could test his influence among Republicans who now control the U.S. House of Representatives.
Social Security, which provides retirement and disability payments, accounted for 17% of federal spending in the 2021 fiscal year, while Medicare, the health-insurance program for seniors, accounted for 13%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Both programs are projected to grow dramatically in coming years due to an aging population.
“Their plan would cut Social Security benefits,” Biden said Nov. 27 during a White House event. “I thought (Republicans) agreed not to do this a couple times. But they’re back at it. Average benefit cut would be 13%.”
The Cost of Doing Nothing
Biden’s claim was based on a 2020 report that Trump did not embrace. Both Trump and Biden have stated they will not touch Social Security.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump agree on one thing. “I guarantee you I will protect Social Security and Medicare without any change. Guaranteed,” Mr. Biden said in March. Mr. Trump has said: “I will do everything within my power not to touch Social Security, to leave it the way it is.”
Doing nothing won’t protect beneficiaries. It’ll subject them to automatic 23% cuts in 10 years.
Under existing law, doing nothing will result in automatic cuts of 23 percent based on CBO estimates.
But presidents cannot think past the current election cycle. It’s debatable if Biden can think at all.
Rosy Estimates
The CBO Estimates are too rosy. No one has bothered to factor in a recession as far as the eye can see.
Even without a recession, payroll data tells one story and employment another.
Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.
Payrolls are up by 5.77 million since May of 2022, but full time employment up only 457 thousand. No amount of BLS smoothing can hide this.
Even if there is no recession, where will the payroll tax receipts come from to support the promised payments?
Do the calculation again with a recession.
Meanwhile, both Trump and Biden propose doing nothing.
Chaos inside the Biden White House
(zerohedge)
White House Chaos: Susan Rice Slammed “Bitch Ass” Becerra Over Border; Biden “Exploded” With Rage
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Axios is out with a damning report.
Apparently in January of 2023, President Biden completely lost his shit on Air Force One, “exploding” with rage at his team during a discussion on immigration because they couldn’t produce obscure data on demand.
The key takeaway is that, “infighting, blame-shifting and indecision” has gotten in the way of fixing the migrant crisis (they created).
In short, Biden and his temper are to blame for the border crisis, and his team is a bunch of morons.
Biden’s fury subsided, and aides scrambled for the information he wanted. People in the meeting later told others in frustration that his winding process and irritability were making it more difficult to reach decisions about the border. –Axios
What’s more, “The rolling chaos along the border has grown to the point that Biden now is embracing immigration policies he ran against in 2020 — such as restricting asylum laws and suggesting he’ll “shut down” the border — as the crisis threatens his re-election.”
According to the report, as the immigration crisis began to slowly build, nobody in the administration wanted to “own” the hot potato issue (heaven forbid Border Czar Kamala Harris get off her knees and imagine what could be, unburdened by her sheer incompetence).
– Susan Rice called HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra a “bitch ass”& “idiot”. – VP Harris’ team made it clear her responsibilities “began and ended” w/ root causes in just the 3 Northern Triangle counties & Mexico, w/ a former Biden admin official saying Harris has been “at best, ineffective”. – Mayorkas disagreed with Biden’s 100 day halt on deportations. – Homeland Security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall displayed inexperience, asked for a memo explaining the difference between refugees & asylum seekers. – Biden admin has listened to “vocal immigration advocates outside the administration”. – “The White House generally didn’t want to talk publicly about immigration or the border for much of Biden’s first three years, feeling it would draw attention to a political vulnerability.” – “Publicly, the White House also initially downplayed jumps in illegal border crossings as normal “ebbs and flows” — even as some internally pushed to acknowledge that the problem was significant.”
The article highlights a combination of infighting, incompetence, and indifference regarding the administration’s handling of the border over the last 3 years.
Rice Fries Kamala
In addition to calling Becerra a “bitch ass,” the clearly more competent Susan Rice and Kamala Harris have apparently been arch rivals ever since Rice was passed over for VP. Via Axios:
The tension between Rice and Harris had origins in the summer of 2020, when both were being vetted for vice president. Rice later told people she thought Harris and her team were partly responsible for opposition research that resulted in negative coverage of Rice.
Rice appeared to others to take pride in being more informed on the border than Harris.
Some Harris aides found Rice to be disrespectful toward the vice president and dismissively referred to the former UN ambassador as just a “staffer.”
Bottom line, America is being led by a man who’s too senile to prosecute, and whose administration is completely dysfunctional.
Ukraine funding is nothing but a funnel for money back to the USA democrats
(zerohedge)
Senate Passes $95BN Ukraine-Israel Package But Johnson Signals Blockade In House
TUESDAY, FEB 13, 2024 – 09:15 AM
Early Tuesday Senate Democrats and Republicans joined to pass the $95 billion national security package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan after months of tense holdup and negotiations by Republicans, given especially the fight over the border security measures.
“With this bill, the Senate declares that American leadership will not waiver, will not falter, will not fail,” announced Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, after working closely with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell on the legislation.
The Associated Press details that the “vote came after a small group of Republicans opposed to the $60 billion for Ukraine held the Senate floor through the night, using the final hours of debate to argue that the U.S. should focus on its own problems before sending more money overseas.”
“But 22 Republicans voted with nearly all Democrats to pass the package 70-29, with supporters arguing that abandoning Ukraine could embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin and threaten national security across the globe,” AP notes.
Among those leading the last stand was Sen. Rand Paul, who vowed to told out until “hell freezes over” and spoke out about the massive national debt on the Senate floor.
“I love to talk,” Paul said going into last night. “That’s one of my favorite things to do. Yes, and I slept all day yesterday waiting for this. I’m going to take Adderall — nah, I’m just kidding.”
Speaker Mike Johnson has signaled blockade in the House, saying that the House is not going to take up the bill anytime soon as it doesn’t include the vital border security provisions.
He had said Monday night, “House Republicans were crystal clear from the very beginning of discussions that any so-called national security supplemental legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border.” He added: “In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters.”
Former president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has been vocal on the campaign trail in encouraging GOP Congressional leaders to block it and holdout as long as possible.
Politico reports: Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance “distributed a memo to Senate GOP offices on Monday arguing that the foreign aid measure could tie Trump’s hands if he comes into office next year wanting to pause Ukraine funds as part of negotiations on ending Russia’s war on the U.S. ally. That’s because some of the legislation’s funding expires nine months into the next presidency, effectively — according to Vance — handcuffing a future President Trump from making his own decisions on Ukraine spending.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY) said last week that Democrats could attempt to force the bill to the floor through a discharge petition, however admitted the strategy it doubtful: “House Democrats are prepared to use every available legislative tool to make sure we get comprehensive national security legislation over the finish line,” he said.
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
expect more of this in the uSA. How on earth did this person get guns?
(zerohedge)
Houston Church Shooter Identified As Transgender With A Long Criminal History
A shooter who was killed by off-duty police officers after opening fire at a Houston megachurch while seemingly using a 7-year-old child as a human shield has been identified as a woman named Genesse Moreno, who police said also identified as a man named Jeffrey Escalante.
Police said a woman in her early 30s entered Lakewood Church on Feb. 11 wearing a trench coat and backpack, armed with a long rifle, and began firing.
Before managing to kill anyone, the shooter was taken down by two off-duty officers, one a Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission agent and the other a Houston police officer, according to Houston Police Chief Troy Finner.
“I want to commend those officers. She had a long gun, and it could’ve been a lot worse, but they stepped up and they did their job,” Chief Finner said during a media briefing on the afternoon of Feb. 11.
Emergency vehicles line the feeder road outside Lakewood Church during a reported active shooter event in Houston on Feb. 11, 2024. (Kirk Sides/Houston Chronicle via AP)
An affidavit seeking a search warrant for a home in Conroe, Texas, about 40 miles north of Houston, identifies the shooter as 36-year-old Genesse Ivonne Moreno, according to the Associated Press. The warrant was released by the Montgomery County district attorney’s office.
Records cited by the Houston Chronicle and other media outlets, and which are circulating online, show that the shooter also identified as Jeffrey Escalante, who had a long criminal history, including assault, drug, and weapons charges.
“A lengthy criminal history. A woman who thinks she is a man,” Don Hooper, a writer at the Houston Conservative Forum, wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that featured a series of the shooter’s mugshots over the years.
“My information is biological female per the medical examiner,” he wrote in an earlier post. “They were looking at the body when brought in.”
Chris Hassig, commander of the Houston Police Department homicide division, said during a media briefing on Feb. 12 that investigators have identified the shooter as a 36-year-old Hispanic female named Genesse Moreno.
“There are some discrepancies [regarding the individual’s gender],” he said. “We do have reports she used multiple aliases, including Jeffrey Escalante. So she utilized both male and female names.”
However, Mr. Hassig said the investigation indicates that “she has been identified this entire time as female.”
He noted that the gun used by the shooter had a sticker with the word “Palestine” on it.
Child as Human Shield?
At the Feb. 12 briefing, Mr. Hassig said two people were injured in the incident, including the child who accompanied the shooter.
The other person injured was a 57-year-old man, who was shot in the hip or leg.
Mr. Hassig said the 7-year-old child who accompanied Ms. Moreno was struck in the head in the exchange of gunfire and remains in critical condition.
He said Ms. Moreno pulled up to the church in a vehicle with the child inside and then entered the building with the little boy and, after entering, “she immediately starts firing inside of the hallway.”
The two officers returned fire.
“Multiple shots are exchanged by all three,” Mr. Hassig said. “She eventually falls to the ground; the 7-year-old child falls to the ground as well from gunfire. One gunshot wound to the head.”
A Montgomery County District Attorney’s Office spokesperson was cited by the Houston Chronicle as saying on Feb. 12 that the 7-year-old was not expected to survive.
While it’s unclear who shot the child, Chief Finner blamed the shooter.
“That female, that suspect put that baby in danger,” he said during the Feb. 11 briefing.
“I’m going to put that blame on her.”
Lakewood Church, which seats roughly 16,000 people, is led by pastor Joel Osteen.
Pastor Joel Osteen speaks to the media after a shooting at Lakewood Church in Houston on Feb. 11, 2024, in a still from video footage. (KTRK-TV ABC13 via AP)
In a statement posted on X, Mr. Osteen praised law enforcement for acting swiftly to neutralize the threat and said that he was “devastated” by the shooting.
“In the face of such darkness, we must hold onto our faith and remember evil will not prevail,” he said.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a statement calling the shooting a “heinous act” and praising law enforcement for acting “quickly to respond to this tragedy.”
“Our hearts are with those impacted by today’s tragic shooting and the entire Lakewood Church community in Houston,” Mr. Abbott wrote.
A motive for the attack remains unclear.
Ms. Moreno’s posts on social media show a history of leftist politics, according to independent journalist Andy Ngo.
Alan Guity, a member of Lakewood Church since 1998, said he heard gunshots while resting inside the church’s sanctuary as his mother was working as an usher.
He told the Associated Press that he ran to his mother and that they both lay flat on the floor as the gunfire continued.
Mr. Guity told the outlet that he and his mother prayed and stayed on the floor for about five minutes until they were told it was safe to leave the building. He said that as he exited the building, he could see people crying and looking for loved ones.
In 2021, President Joe Biden opened wide an inherited, secure southern border that had finally stopped mass illegal immigration.
When he overturned former President Donald Trump’s efforts, a planned flood of over 8 million illegal immigrants entered the United States.
Almost all arrived without background checks, health screening, or vaccination certificates—but with massive needs for free housing, education, healthcare, and food entitlements and subsidies.
For four years, President Trump battled the courts, his Democratic opposition, and the open-border establishments within his own party to ensure legal-only immigration. Somehow, he rebuilt some of the old porous border fence. He had begun to build his long-promised new wall to the Gulf of Mexico. He had ended Obama-era catch-and-release.
Would-be refugees had to apply for asylum in their home country. President Trump leveraged Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to police his own border and stop cynically transiting millions of illegal aliens into the United States.
There was general Democratic Party opposition to all of Trump’s measures, both through Congress and via the courts.
For the last three years of Biden’s mass influx, the left has applauded open borders. That is, until late last year, when overwhelmed southern border state governors began busing and flying illegal immigrants en masse to northern sanctuary-city jurisdictions.
For years, these sanctuary zones had preened their liberality about open borders. They smeared as “racists” and “xenophobes” any who insisted on legal-only immigration.
But now they were subject to the real-life ramifications of their own destructive ideologies.
Major blue-state cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., became outraged that they were inundated with tens of thousands of immigrants, all without legality, veritable identification, or background checks.
Some proved violent. Others crowded out scarce resources essential to millions of inner-city poor.
The liberal architects of illegal immigration are usually rich and powerful enough to be insulated from the consequences of their utopian policies.
But not so their poor or minority constituents. They deal first-hand with spiking crime, appropriation of their parks and civic centers, and restricted access to now overwhelmed social services.
So the once open-border Democrat Party and President Biden are in a quandary. They now fear mass defections of core Latino and black voters in an election year.
But how can they square the circle of insisting on open borders with the need to appear to their own voters as determined to close them?
We saw the absurd answer this week. Shameless Democrats tried to enlist naive and foolish Republicans to bail them out with a “comprehensive immigration bill.”
It was really designed to keep the border open while spending billions of dollars to facilitate more rapid and orderly transits—and more substantial welfare support for millions of illegals here and still to come.
Now Democrats claim that anyone who did not sign on to codify and regulate illegal immigration was responsible for their own deliberate open border policies in the first place!
To add insult to injury, they next sought to piggyback their toxic immigration bill onto massive aid for Israel and Ukraine. It was a transparent effort to blame any Republicans for harming Israel and aiding Putin, should they not sign on to a more efficient open border.
The real agenda of the bill’s supporters is absolutely no return to Trump’s legal-only immigration and a secure border.
That simple solution requires no new legislation and almost no new spending. But it does imply acknowledgment that the hated President Trump had solved the problem executively – and that admission is apparently taboo.
Finally, public outrage from the left and conservative anger at foolish and naive Republican enablers stopped the bill.
Still, it remains somewhat unclear why President Biden and his Homeland Security chief, Alejandro Mayorkas, destroyed what President Trump had achieved. Why would they ensure such misery for both American hosts and millions of illegal immigrants?
Did they want new long-term constituents, given that their neo-socialist agendas cannot win over a majority of current Americans?
Is importing millions of the poorest and most in need on the planet a way to ensure a still larger Great Society of entitlements and, with it, higher taxes on the “filthy rich”?
Do they assume that America’s increasingly non-Election-Day balloting ensures far less authentication and rejection of mail-in ballots, and thus it will be relatively easy for non-citizens to vote?
Many, left and right, make no effort to hide their desire for cheap imported labor—even though the current labor participation rate is only 62 percent of the potential American workforce.
Finally, one might expect this artifice from the left that is wedded to open borders.
But why some establishment Republicans aided and abetted these disingenuous efforts is yet another reminder why the doctrinaire Republican Party had to be reinvented by President Trump.
END
SWAMP STORIES
Fani Willis Disqualification Is “Possible,” Judge Says
Fulton County Superior Judge Scott McAfee confirmed on Feb. 12 that the hearing about misconduct claims against Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and special prosecutor Nathan Wade “must occur” on Feb. 15 and could lead to disqualification.
Ms. Willis is presiding over the high-profile racketeering case that names former President Donald Trump and 14 others.
“I think it’s clear that disqualification can occur if evidence is produced presenting a conflict or the appearance of one, and the filings submitted on this issue so far have presented a conflict of interest that can’t be resolved as a matter of law,” Judge McAfee said.
Ms. Willis will be called as the first witness, the judge said after hearing some of the prosecutors’ arguments. “I don’t see how quash can be imposed here,” he said, referring to the district attorney’s effort to dismiss the subpoenas.
On Feb. 12, the judge held a hearing regarding the district attorney’s motions to quash the nine subpoenas issued on Ms. Willis herself and her staffers, ahead of this week’s anticipated hearing where the district attorney will have to respond to allegations of an “improper” relationship.
On Jan. 8, defendant Michael Roman filed a lengthy motion that alleged Ms. Willis was in a personal relationship with Mr. Wade, an attorney with a private law firm whom she had contracted to take a lead position in the racketeering case. He alleged that Mr. Wade took Ms. Willis on “lavish” vacations including a cruise, and that she financially benefited from the situation.
He also made several other allegations including that Mr. Wade wasn’t qualified for the position and that Ms. Willis used funds improperly, which the judge indicated would not be the focus of the Jan. 15 evidentiary hearing. After the huge claims were made, several codefendants filed their own motions to disqualify Ms. Willis based on “prejudicial” actions.
“Specifically looking at defendant Roman’s motion, it alleged a personal relationship that resulted in a financial benefit to the district attorney that is no longer a matter of speculation,” the judge said. “The state has admitted a relationship existed, and so what remains to be proven is the existence and extent of any financial benefit, again if there even was one.”
Judge McAfee said the claims of prejudice were based on public statements—a speech Ms. Willis gave at an Atlanta church where she invoked God and said her critics were playing the “race card”—and did not warrant a hearing meant to produce evidence for the record. Other issues such as Mr. Wade’s resume also did not warrant an evidentiary hearing, the judge said.
The district attorney had filed a motion arguing that no evidentiary hearing was necessary because no conflict of interest had occurred, but the judge rejected the argument.
“Because I think it’s possible that the facts alleged by the defendant could result in disqualification, I think an evidentiary hearing must occur to establish a record on those core allegations,” Judge McAfee said.
He said the hearing will focus on “whether a relationship existed, whether that relationship was romantic or not in nature, when it formed, and whether it continues.”
“I think that’s only relevant because it’s in relation to the question of the extent of any personal benefit conveyed as a result of the relationship,” Judge McAfee said.
Mr. Roman’s attorney, Ashleigh Merchant, alleged that the relationship began as early as 2019 and the couple cohabited at one point, and claimed in a court filing that she could produce witnesses to testify to these allegations.
Mr. Wade had submitted a sworn affidavit stating that he had met Ms. Willis in 2019 but a “personal relationship” began only in 2022, and that Ms. Willis split expenses with him so there was no financial benefit.
Anna Cross, another one of the prosecutors contracted by the district attorney for the case, said during the Feb. 12 hearing that none of the subpoenaed witnesses have anything to say that contradicts Mr. Wade’s affidavit.
House GOP Seeks Biden-Hur Dementia Transcripts, Recordings
MONDAY, FEB 12, 2024 – 09:30 PM
Three House committees have asked the DOJ to turn over transcripts and recordings of President Joe Biden’s interviews with special counsel Robert Hur, following an explosive report that concluded Biden is too cognitively impaired to be charged with a crime.
The request, sent by the three GOP leaders to Attorney General Merrick Garland, echoes many Republican concerns that Biden is receiving more favorable treatment than Donald Trump for the same crime.
“The Committee on the Judiciary requires these documents for its ongoing oversight of the Department’s commitment to impartial justice and its handling of the investigation and prosecution of President Biden’s presumptive opponent, Donald J. Trump, in the November 2024 presidential election,” wrote the chairs of the three committees – House Oversight and Accountability Chair James Comer (R-KY), House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH), and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), who are demanding the information no later than February 19.
“Although Mr. Hur reasoned that President Biden’s presentation ‘as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory’ who “did not remember when he was vice president’ or ‘when his son Beau died’ posed challenges to proving the President’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, the report concluded that the Department’s principles of prosecution weighed against prosecution because the Department has not prosecuted ‘a former president or vice president for mishandling classified documents from his own administration,” the letter continues.
“The one ‘exception’ to the Department’s principles of prosecution, as Mr. Hur noted, ‘is former President Trump.’ This speaks volumes about the Department’s commitment to evenhanded justice.”
Other GOP lawmakers have said more of the same.
“Among the most disturbing parts of this report is the Special Counsel’s justification for not recommending charges: namely that the President’s memory had such ‘significant limitations’ that he could not convince a jury that the President held a ‘mental state of willfulness’ that a serious felony requires,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) in a letter sent last week in response to the report.
“A man too incapable of being held accountable for mishandling classified information is certainly unfit for the Oval Office.”
KING REPORT
The King Report February 13, 2024 Issue 7179
Independent View of the News
Due to Chinese bourses closure, all this week, for the Lunar New Year, ESHs traded mostly negative but flat from the Nikkei opening until they exploded higher near 10:30 ET on the 2nd Hour Reversal.
ESHs hit a high of 5066.50 at the 11:30 ET European close. ESHs then created a ‘W’ top with a breakdown at 13:21 ET. ESHs tumbled to a daily low of 5033.25 at 14:19 ET on this:
Barkin Warns Business May Be Slow to Give up Price Power (History verifies this!) – BBG Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said there is a risk that US businesses, which boosted profit margins and sales by raising prices over the last couple of years, may be slow to give up their practice of significant hikes. “If you were selling something, it was pretty good” with higher volumes and profits, Barkin said during a moderated discussion at the Atlanta Economics Club on Monday. “Is it conceivable that’s purely off the table? I don’t think so. I think it’s going to be on the table for a while now.” “I think there’s a real risk that there will be continued inflationary pressure,” Barkin said… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-s-barkin-warns-businesses-may-be-slow-to-give-up-price-power-1.2033902
The FT: US lenders’ debt to shadow banks passes $1tn – Regulators worry growing financial ties between traditional and non-bank groups (fintechs and private credit groups) could pose systemic risks “There has been a lot of leveraged lending that has gone on in financial markets…” https://www.ft.com/content/aaf74ab1-0dc0-4965-92d5-87aacaa8fc30
After a reflexive 10-handles bounce, ESHs rolled over and traded sideways until the close.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply during the 2nd hour of NYSE trading USHs were +5/32 at the NYSE close, trading was listless, range of 119 13/32 to 120 4/32
Negative aspects of previous session Richmond Fed President Barking nuked stocks in the afternoon with his inflation remarks
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will Democrats and Team Obama do about Biden?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5029.03 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5048.39; 5016.83
@VivekGRamaswamy: The Senate voted today to advance a $95 billion boondoggle, most of which goes to America’s favorite state: Ukraine. Many Republicans are going along like puppets. There’s something deeper going on here. (The skim, the grift?)
GOP Sen. @JDVance1: I just sent the below memo to every one of my Republican colleagues in Congress. Buried in the bill’s text is an impeachment time bomb for the next Trump presidency if he tries to stop funding the war in Ukraine. We must vote against this disastrous bill. https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1757053334781890703
GOP Sen. @RandPaul: Republicans need to be aware that this bill, supported by Mitch McConnell and almost all of Senate GOP leadership, sets in motion the next hyper-partisan Trump impeachment (before he’s even elected!) @elonmusk: This is insane. What is going on? @LeaderMcConnell
@JacquiHeinrich:Speaker Johnson says he won’t take up the Senate’s foreign aid only bill – just as the Senate is poised to pass it. “In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters… (full statement): https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1757210140204310880
ARM Holdings soared as much as 36% and closed +29.3%. It is +93.44% over the past 2 sessions! ARM subsidiaries design and manufacture semiconductor technology and related products.
@FinEconGlobal: Mag 7 mkt cap about 50% of US GDP! $13/$14T depending on the day. Maybe by Q2 ending June 30th we can ramp that up to 60%?
The ‘20s bubble blossomed on the notion of increased productivity from electricity. The ‘60s bubble blossomed on increased productivity from electronics. The ’99 bubble blossomed on productivity gains from the Internet. The current Mag 7 bubble is blossoming on expected productivity gains from AI.
The ’87 bubble occurred due to takeover/LBO mania and the first widespread use of index futures – for speculation, program trading, and ‘portfolio insurance.’
Today – The odds are extremely high that Team Obama bureaucrats at the BLS will concoct a better-than-reality January CPI. The Big Guy is in desperate straits, and desperate times call for desperate measures. Plus, The Big Guy surfaced on Monday to extoll the lower prices that he created. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1757087013734396032
If CPI is in-line or better, there will be an upward jump – and vice versa. No one knows how long the moves will last. Stocks are historically overbought; so, a correction could appear at any time. On the other hand, traders are exceedingly euphoric; and they will buy dips until they are punished for doing so.
ESHs are -8.50 and USHs are -3/32 at 20:30 ET. Did someone get Jan CPI early?
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4779; 100-day MA: 4565; 150-day MA: 4538; 200-day MA: 4468 DJIA 50-day MA: 37,538; 100-day MA: 35,736; 150-day MA: 35,444, 200-day MA: 34,999 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4690.11 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4930.47 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5045.26 triggers a buy signal
@GOPoversight: We are giving the Justice Department until February 19 at 5p to produce the transcript of President Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur and other documents included in the report that relate to our impeachment inquiry. Americans deserve transparency… https://t.co/JtVZ2LY3nz
@rich_goldberg: Biden called Netanyahu today to tell him not to go into Rafah to avoid a collapse of hostage negotiations. Israel just rescued two hostages in Rafah. This is the moment for Biden and his team – and every mainstream media outlet carrying their water – to take a big step back.
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Two hostages are now free because thankfully Israel didn’t cave to pressure from Biden not to go into Rafah.
@disclosetv: Biden angry at Netanyahu, calls PM an “as****e” — NBC
@RNCResearch: “What is the White House strategy to change that perception [of Biden’s diminished mental acuity]?” KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “We’re gonna continue to lead on leadership … Biden does more in one hour than most people do in a day!”https://t.co/Q71gRhYdAW
@RNCResearch: Biden is confused — again: “After we, uh, the fella who’s running again, I’m — after he did not move on making sure that we dealt with vaccinating the American public, we ended up losing over a million people dead” https://t.co/StVbzZj9OP @RNCResearch: Karine Jean-Pierre on Biden’s empty schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday: “I don’t have anything.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1757118466643906830
Karine Jean-Pierre struggles to explain why Biden has done fewer press conferences than any president in modern historyhttps://t.co/I7mK8djnVp
@townhallcom: REPORTER: Why isn’t Biden doing more press conferences, especially compared to his predecessors? KJP: The president is communicating with Americans in “non-traditional” ways. (Talking in tongues? No one, but no one is buying this crap!) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1757117760335675563
Biden Announces He’s on TikTok, A Year After He Banned It on All Federal Deviceshttps://t.co/NugshnmgZu
ZH: Democratic chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, said he is concerned about the decision by the campaign of President Joe Biden to join short-video app TikTok and the message it sends.
@RNCResearch: REPORTER: “So. the administration still has security concerns about TikTok, even though the campaign has now joined it...?” KIRBY: “Nothing’s changed about the national security concerns…about the use of TikTok…”https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1757113092104770023
GOP Rep. @repdarrellissa: Panic is when the Biden campaign joins TikTok after the White House banned the app from devices a year ago.
How Biden botched the border – Axios Aboard Air Force One en route to tour the southern border in January 2023, President Biden sat at the head of his conference table and exploded with fury… Warring ideologies inside the White House and the Democratic Party also slowed decision-making… The internal turmoil led to contradictory actions by Biden’s team… Vice President Kamala Harris and her office made clear to others in the administration that her responsibilities began and ended with the factors driving people to leave Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — the issue Biden had assigned her to examine. As the migration became more global, Harris’ team remained focused on the Northern Triangle and Mexico. A former Biden administration senior official told Axios: “She’s been at best ineffective, and at worst sporadically engaged and not seeing it was her responsibility. It’s an opportunity for her, and she didn’t fill the breach.”… https://www.axios.com/2024/02/12/how-biden-botched-border
Kamala Harris insists she is ‘ready to serve’ as growing voter concerns about Joe Biden’s age and cognitive decline impact his re-election bidhttps://trib.al/WT1puQE
@VDHanson: There Are Only Two Things That Can Stop the Re-election of Donald Trump The Biden news cycle is disastrous—and unending: a perfect storm of his failures abroad, disaster at the border, and reasons why sky-high prices nullify the Bidenomics hype. The bad news is interspersed with fallout from the Special Counsel’s damning report. Panicked Democrat grandees worry not over whether, but how, to remove Biden… One is the obviously coordinated effort of four prosecutors—Bragg, James, Smith, and Willis to rush to judgement and keep Trump in a courtroom all spring and summer, convict him, and put him in jail before the November election… But that gambit is starting to unravel… The other only way Trump might lose is—Trump himself… One, in lose/lose fashion he asked rhetorically where was Hayley’s husband (an attempt to fuel rumors of adultery surrounding her years in South Carolina governance?)… Next, he trolled his critics by claiming that he had once told a NATO ally that if any still persisted in refusing to meet its military spending obligations, and still expected the U.S. to defend them, then he would tell the Russians to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to any financially wayward NATO nation… the media went crazy and for a day the country forgot Biden’s news noose… https://twitter.com/VDHanson/status/1757087779048325458
@libsoftiktok: The LGBTQ Texas Church shooter was a migrant from El Salvador. She has a long criminal history dating back to 2005. She was also a Bernie supporter, had a “Free Palestine” sticker on her gun, and identified as transgender.This story is going to disappear really fast. https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1757112483687625004
@SaraGonzalesTX: Lakewood Church shooter, an El Salvadorian immigrant (likely illegal) was previously detained by ICE, but records show she also voted in the 2020 general election????
harveyorganblog.com 
