FEB 21/BLOG FOR WEDNESDAY: work in progess will complete later tonight//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $5.30 TO $2023.15//SILVER WAS DOWN ANOTHER 28 CENTS TO $23.10//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $22.35 TO $885.20 WHILE PALLADIUMW AS DOWN $30.85 TO $934.50//CHINA STOPS FUNDS FORM SELLING STOCKS AT THE OPENING AND CLOSING//ISRAEL VS HAMAS//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH//WEST BANK UPDATES/HOUTHIS VS USA AND UK UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//REPORT ON THE ILLEGAL 10 MILLION USA MIGRANTS//MISH SHEDLOCK ON USA INTEREST RATE PROBLEMS//SWAMP NEWS//
323 C HSBC 92 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 237 661 C JP MORGAN 199 686 H STONEX FINANCIA 24 737 C ADVANTAGE 78
TOTAL: 315 315 MONTH TO DATE: 18,95
JPMorgan stopped 199/315 contracts.
FOR FEB.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 315 NOTICES FOR 31,500 OZ or 0.9797 TNNES
total notices so far: 18,953 contracts for 1,895,300 Oz (58/952 tonnes)
FOR FEBRUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1185 for 5,925,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30//CRIME OF THE CENTURY!!
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.82 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 432.766 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 6636 CONTRACTS TO 146,584 AND FURTHER FORM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG FALL OF $0.33 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH ZERO SHORT COVERING AS THE PRICE OF SILVER FELL APPRECIABLY. WE HAD A STRONG 774 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 774 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.33), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 5,886 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES BUT WITH A MUCH LOWER PRICE.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 750 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL REMAINS THE SAME AT ; 6.98 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.98 MILLION OZ
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 774 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 555 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 days, total 7957 contracts: OR 39.785 MILLION OZ (568 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 39.785 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 :39.785 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6636CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 774 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL REMAINS THE SAME AT 6.98 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING 6.98 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A MEGA GIGANTIC LOSS OF 5886 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A VERY STRONG SIZED 750 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS (DRAMATIC PRICE OF SILVER RISE) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (1390) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 64 CONTRACTS TO 407,063 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 299 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 64 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $16.15 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 64.180 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $16.15 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4084 OI CONTRACTS (12.784) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4030CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 407,063
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4084 CONTRACTS WITH 64 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 4030 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4084 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1390 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4030 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (64) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4084 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 64.180 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) TINY SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1398CONTRACTS//MAJOR SHORT COVERING AGAIN
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 48,054 CONTRACTS OR 4,805,400OZ OR 149.47 TONNES IN 14TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3467 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 149.47 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 149.47/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 149.47 TONNES (SHOULD BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 6636 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,584 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 750 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 6636 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A MEGA GIGANTIC LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5886CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 29.430 MILLION OZ
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 64 CONTRACTS TO 407,063 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.15 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING. WE ARE GETTING AWFULLY CLOSE TO OUR LOW OI OF 390,000 CONTRACTS
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4030 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 4030 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4030CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4084 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4030 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 64 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.15 TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1390 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (64.180 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 64.180 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $16.15 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF4084 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE MUCH HIGHER PRICE. WE HAD TO HAVE HAD A STRONG SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 12.434 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S HUMONGOUS 130,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP (4.065 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 64.180: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $16.15
WE HAD -REMOVED 299 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4084 CONTRACTS OR 408,400 OZ OR 12.434 TONNES. estimated volume today 113,529 poor
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
18,953 notices 1,895,300 oz 58.952 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of HSBC: 134,451.493 oz
4.182 tonnes and close to the 4.06 tonne queue jump today
total withdrawal: 134,451.493 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
Adjustments: 1 dealer to customer
a) Out of HSBC: 172.734oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1442 contracts having GAINED 1286 contracts. We had 21 notices filed on Tuesday, so we GAINED 1307 contracts or an additional 130,700 oz (4.0653 tonnes) will stand for delivery at the comex.
We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.
Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s QUEUE jump of 130,700 oz//New standing 62.457 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 64.180 TONNES
March LOST 174 contracts to stand at 2498
APRIL lost 1125 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 317,823.
We had 315 contracts filed for today representing 31,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 315 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 99 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,953 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (1442 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 315 x 100 oz per contract equals 200,800 OZ OR 62.457 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 64.180 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (18,953) x 100 oz + (1442) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (315) x 100 oz which equals 200,800 oz (62.457 TONNES) + 54,400 oz (1.723 TONNES) ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 64.180 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 64.180 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,289,124.858 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,133,765.654 (252.99 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,155,359.204 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,733,463 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 209.43 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 21/INITIAL
//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (5 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
122 contracts (610,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1185 Contracts (5,935,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/280.137 million or 46.42%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 0
i
total withdrawal: nil oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.868 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 280.137 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB. /2023 OI: 122 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 119 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 119 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX
MARCH LOST 10,277 CONTRACTS TO 57,012
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 28 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 88
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 3841 CONTRACTS UP TO 69,542.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 69,095 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 126,004 mega huge//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1185 x 5,000 oz = 5,925,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (122) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 1185 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (122) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 6.5350 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 6.9800 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 6.9800 million oz.
There are 42.868 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
FEB21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 829/82 TONNES//HUGE CRIME
FEB20/WITH GOLD UP $16.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.89 TONNES
FEB16/WITH GOLD UP $8,60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.31 TONNES
FEB15/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 829.82 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 432.766 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
end
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
END
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
Bad property debt exceeds reserves at largest U.S. banks
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-02-20 10:10 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Stephen Gandel Financial Times, London Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Bad commercial real estate loans have overtaken loss reserves at the biggest U.S. banks after a sharp increase in late payments linked to offices, shopping centers, and other properties.
The average reserves at JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have fallen from $1.60 to 90 cents for every dollar of commercial real estate debt on which a borrower is at least 30 days late, according to filings to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
The sharp deterioration took place in the last year after delinquent commercial property debt for the six big banks nearly tripled to $9.3 billion. …
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-02-19 19:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Joseph N. DiStefano Philadelphia Inquirer Monday, February 19, 2024
Robert Leroy Higgins’ Delaware gold and silver storage businesses ran out of operating funds in 2012, but, according to a federal grand jury, the West Chester precious-metals dealer was able to attract new clients and stay in business for 10 more years by stealing coins and bullion that a thousand customers had entrusted to the vaults at his Wilmington warehouse
Higgins is due in Delaware’s federal court Thursday for arraignment on criminal fraud and tax charges first leveled in 2022 and amended three times, the last filed Feb. 15 after attorneys for Higgins and the U.S. attorney for Delaware failed to settle the case without a trial.
If convicted on all charges, Higgins faces up to 45 years in prison. He remains free on condition that he not leave the area, said his lawyer, Jeremy Gonzalez Ibrahim of Chadds Ford.
Higgins, 68, a longtime coin, bullion, and currency dealer, owned First State Depository, one of several Delaware businesses that hold precious metals for companies and individual investors. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSWEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1912
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1976
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.22 PPTS OR 0.97%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 255.59 PTS OR 1.57%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 101.45 OR 0.26%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.97 EURO FALLS TO 1.0808 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.715 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.09/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP/ OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3910***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.872* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.299…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.338
3j Gold at $2028.60 silver at: 23.02 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 6 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.40//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.96// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.715% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8798 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9510 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.263 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.443 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.589 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.01…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 6 BASIS PTS AT 4.143
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Slide Ahead Of Earnings By “The Most Important Stock On Planet Earth”
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 08:23 AM
US futures extended their slide, bucking a strong Asian session with European stocks mixed, ahead of what Goldman trader Scott Rubner called “the most important stock on planet earth” –that would be Nvidia for anyone who has been living in a cave the past year – reports after the close facing sky-high expectations, and where another Goldman trader, Peter Callahan, said that the tactical debate is whether this print will be a local top or a ‘break-out’ moment for the stock and for the AI trade (from where he sits, this “feels like consensus is learning more towards the former“). And with options implying the stock may move about 11% in either direction, i.e., a whopping $200BN in market cap may be gained or lost for a company that recently surpassed GOOGL and AMZN in market cap, it’s not surprising why the market is on edge. With that preamble out of the way, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% as of 7:40am and Nasdaq contracts lost about 0.5%, suggesting Wall Street may be in for a third day of declines. Bond yields are lower, the 10Y dropping 2bps, with steepening across most of the curve; the USD is flat and commodities are weaker. The macro data focus is on Fed Minutes this afternoon; while possible to see a dovish surprise regarding QT this most likely comes at the March 20 Fed meeting where we may see a reduction in the pace of QT.
In premarket trading, Palo Alto Networks plunged more than 20% after the cybersecurity firm cut its forecasts for both revenue and billing and warned of “spending fatigue” among its customers; Piper Sandler downgraded its rating on the stock. Amazon.com rose 1.2% after replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Walgreens fell 2.8%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Community Health Systems falls 18% after the hospital owner and operator released a 2024 adjusted Ebitda guidance that was below the average analyst estimate.
International Flavors & Fragrances shares fall 8.6% after providing a disappointing sales outlook. The company, which provides ingredients, flavors and scents for industries including food and beverage, also cut the dividend.
Intuitive Machines shares jump 22% after giving an update on its lunar lander, Odysseus. The company, seeking to land a US spacecraft on the moon this week, closed higher by 50% during the regular session on Tuesday, for a third straight gain.
Manchester United shares slip 2.5% after Jim Ratcliffe completed the acquisition of 25% of Class A shares and 25% of Class B shares for $33 per share.
Matterport shares drop 13% after giving first-quarter subscription and revenue guidance that came in below the average analyst estimate. Fourth-quarter revenue also missed expectations.
SolarEdge plunges 16% as the solar equipment maker’s first-quarter revenue forecast missed Wall Street estimates. Fourth-quarter results disappointed as well.
Teladoc Health shares slide 22% after the healthcare services company reported fourth-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected. Additionally, the company gave first-quarter forecast below consensus expectations.
Wendy’s shares decline 1.3% after the fast-food chain was downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan, which sees the stock remaining rangebound.
RingCentral falls 4% after the provider of cloud-based communications services gave an outlook that analysts said wasn’t strong enough to be compelling.
Wix.com shares rise 5.9% as the web platform company’s fourth-quarter revenue edged past the average estimate of analysts, who noted revenue growth momentum and expectations for margin expansion in the coming years.
Going back to today’s main highlight, Nvidia, the stock fell 1.7% in pre-market trading after sliding 4.4% yesterday. “It feels like these earnings today are a barometer of where we are in the global cycle,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place. “Concentration in the stock market has got to levels where one company’s earnings can have a big macro effect. It’s gone beyond being just a portfolio construction issue; it’s a macro challenge which you can’t get away from.”
Meanwhile, Europe’s stock benchmark retreated from near a record high amid disappointing earnings from some of the region’s biggest companies. The Stoxx Europe 600 gauge edged lower 0.1% for a second day, still about four points from its January 2022 peak. Banks were among the leading decliners as HSBC Holdings Plc tumbled more than 7% after reporting an 80% plunge in fourth-quarter profit. Weak earnings from commodities trader Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto Plc, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, weighed on the basic resources sub-index, which slumped to a four-month low. On the positive side, Carrefour SA gained after the French grocer announced a share buy-back, even as quarterly sales disappointed. Here are all the notable European movers:
Fresenius SE shares rise as much as 4.7% after the German health-care company reported 4Q Ebit before special items for beat estimates and provided reassuring 2024 guidance
NKT gains as much as 8.8%, to a record high, after the Copenhagen-listed power cable manufacturer’s 4Q report and guidance both impressed with solid numbers, Carnegie says
Aedifica rises as much as 3.7% after releasing results described as “excellent” by KBC analysts. A highlight was the Belgian healthcare property operator’s occupancy rates
Conduit rises as much as 6.2%, the most in about 13 months, after the reinsurer delivers results which Peel Hunt says are strong, and highlight the maturity of the business
Inditex advances to a fresh record, with Oddo BHF increasing its price target for the Spanish retailer ahead of 4Q earnings that the broker expects will show strong sales growth
EFG International shares climb as much as 4.2%, to the highest level since 2015, after the Swiss private bank posted solid results according to Vontobel
HSBC slides as much as 7.6% in London after the bank reported profit that was hit by charges and offered guidance for the year that analysts said was unclear, with Jefferies calling them “messy”
Glencore shares slump 6.4% after the mining giant posted results showing lower thermal coal prices, which will likely lead to consensus downgrades, according to RBC says
JDE Peet’s shares drop as much as 6.7%, hitting the lowest level on record, after the Dutch coffee company reported full-year adjusted Ebit that missed estimates
BAE Systems retreats as much as 3.6% on Wednesday, paring a rally which has fueled the defense and aerospace systems manufacturer to a record high
Fresenius Medical Care falls as much as 5.5%, adding to Tuesday’s 4.5% drop, following earnings and guidance that failed to turn analysts more bullish on the German dialysis provider
Nel shares fall as much as 4.2% and to 2019 lows after SEB cut the Norwegian supplier of hydrogen technology’s price target, citing low visibility and forecasts for an Ebitda loss
Positive economic surprises had buoyed European stocks even as traders trimmed bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Volatility measures are at historical lows, suggesting some complacency has crept into a market still facing potential headwinds, including rising bond yields, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“European stocks could consolidate recent gains in the near term as investor sentiment looks overheated,” BI strategists Laurent Douillet and Tim Craighead wrote in a report. “Rising government bond yields haven’t curbed enthusiasm so far, as highly leveraged companies slightly outperform, and remain a key 2024 risk for equities.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks erased an early loss and edged higher as China rallied after authorities rolled out more measures to restore investor confidence, offsetting broader weakness ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1% after falling as much as 0.5% earlier, driven by gains in Chinese tech giants including Tencent and Alibaba. Miners dragged on the gauge as iron ore extended declines amid concerns about demand outlook in China, while chip-related stocks declined in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Chinese benchmarks jumped, with a gauge of offshore-listed shares surging more than 3% in Hong Kong, as the nation’s two bourses vowed to tighten supervision of quantitative trading after imposing a freeze on a major fund’s accounts. Bloomberg also reported that China has banned major institutional investors from reducing equity holdings at the open and close of each trading day, part of the government’s most forceful attempt yet to prop up the nation’s $8.6 trillion stock market. Banks meanwhile ramped up funding help for the troubled property sector.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off early weakness with outperformance in Hong Kong driven by strength in property and tech, while the mainland also recovered its initial losses and more following recent stability efforts by Chinese authorities.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by consumer stocks and miners in another busy day of earnings.
Nikkei 225 continued its gradual pullback from near-record levels but remained above the 38,000 level.
Indian stocks snapped a six-day rally, dragged by a selloff in information technology companies and as investors likely booked profits. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 0.6% to 72,623.09 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. Both gauges posted their biggest single-day slump since Feb. 12.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed after posting a small drop for two straight days; one-year risk reversals in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed yesterday at the least bullish level in eight months. Markets are close to fully discounting a 25bps cut in June, and see a 33% chance of a cut in May.
USD/JPY consolidated around 150 while EUR/USD fell back below 1.08 after hitting 1.0839 on Tuesday, its highest since Feb.
GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.2606, in line with recent range
AUD/USD rose on buying from leveraged accounts in view of solid gains in Chinese stock indexes, according to Asia-based FX traders
In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by front-end, where 2-year yields are lower by ~2bp vs Tuesday’s close. Treasury 10-year yields around 4.26%, richer by around 1.5bp on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts by 2bp and 3bp in the sector. Front-end-led gains in Treasuries steepen 2s10s, 5s30s curves by 0.5bp and 0.7bp, with both spreads off session wides. Bunds lag as the market digests German 10-year auction, while gilts give back a portion of Tuesday’s aggressive rally. US session includes 20-year bond auction, January FOMC minutes and Nvidia Corp. results, scheduled to be reported after the close. Corporate new-issue calendar is said to be under consideration for a large offering. Treasury auctions resume with $16b 20-year bond sale at 1pm; the WI level around 4.535% is above auction stops since November and ~11bp cheaper than January’s, which tailed by 0.8bp.
In commodities, aluminum surged on speculation that a fresh wave of US sanctions against Russia may target the metal, potentially disrupting supplies. Iron ore futures hit the lowest since October after a volatile session in which prices flipped between gains and losses. Oil edged lower with WTI falling 0.7% to trade near $76.50. Spot gold rises 0.2%.
In crypto, Bitcoin (-1.3%) fell back below USD 52k, and Ethereum (-2.2%) dips back under 3k after briefly breaking out above.
US economic data calendar includes only MBA mortgage applications, which declined 10.6% as interest rates rose. Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak include Bostic (8am), Barkin (9:10am) and Collins (5:30pm). FOMC minutes from Jan. 30-31 meeting are due to be released at 2pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,979.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 490.85
MXAP little changed at 171.21
MXAPJ little changed at 523.44
Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,262.16
Topix down 0.2% to 2,627.30
Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 16,503.10
Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 2,950.96
Sensex down 0.7% to 72,582.18
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,608.36
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,653.31
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.40%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0796
Brent Futures down 0.6% to $81.83/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,027.48
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.17
Top Overnight News
Beijing is overhauling how China’s fast-growing quant trading industry is regulated after one of the sector’s largest operators was hit with a trading ban this week for dumping shares. Stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen announced late on Tuesday that all market activity by computer-driven quant funds, which rely on complex automated trading strategies, would be closely scrutinized under a new monitoring scheme jointly run by both bourses and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. FT
HSBC slid as its profit plunged 80% after taking unexpected charges on holdings in a Chinese bank. CEO Noel Quinn said it has de-risked its US commercial real-estate exposure and that China’s moves to prop up its property sector will lead to a more lasting recovery. The bank announced a $2 billion buyback. BBG
Honda and Mazda agree to union wage demands, the latest sign that compensation is rising enough for the BOJ to begin tightening policy. BBG
Japan’s exports for Jan come in a bit ahead of plan at +11.9% (vs. the Street +9.5%), although the Reuters Tankan survey revealed a deterioration in sentiment while the Japanese gov’t reduced its economic assessment for the first time in 3 months. RTRS
Boaz Weinstein is building up positions across UK investment trusts that now account for about a quarter of his $5.4 billion bet on closed-end funds trading near historic discounts. His targets include funds managed by JPMorgan, BlackRock, Schroders and Baillie Gifford. BBG
As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters a third year, President Vladimir Putin’s forces have shifted to the offensive and captured the eastern city of Avdiivka after months of fighting. In a conflict where momentum has ebbed and flowed, the mood is now noticeably darker in Kyiv. BBG
Private equity firms are increasingly raising money to buy individual companies on a deal-by-deal basis, as they struggle with a downturn in the market and investors look for ways to cut management fees. A record $31bn was deployed by “deal-by-deal” investors last year, according to data provided by private equity advisory firm Triago, defying a broader dealmaking and fundraising slump in the industry. FT
Donald Trump entered the 2024 election year with about 200,000 fewer donors than in the previous presidential campaign four years ago, raising questions about his fundraising machine just as legal bills eat into his war chest. FT
Bank reserve balances remain ample, suggesting liquidity levels remain ample despite the drop in reverse repo balances (which means the Fed may not need to slow the pace of QT). BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with headwinds following the tech-led declines stateside ahead of Nvidia earnings and FOMC Minutes. ASX 200 was dragged lower by consumer stocks and miners in another busy day of earnings. Nikkei 225 continued its gradual pullback from near-record levels but remained above the 38,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off early weakness with outperformance in Hong Kong driven by strength in property and tech, while the mainland also recovered its initial losses and more following recent stability efforts by Chinese authorities.
Top Asian News
China’s housing authority said a total of CNY 123.6bln of development loans have been approved and that CNY 29.4bln have been issued under China’s “whitelist” mechanism which was launched on January 26th and is aimed at injecting liquidity to the property sector.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang met with his French counterpart and said China is ready to strengthen strategic communication with France and forge more consensus, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, as well respond more effectively to global challenges. Wang also stated the two sides had in-depth communication on issues related to peace and security, while they agreed that multi-polarisation is indispensable for peace and stability, and will continue to strengthen strategic coordination. Furthermore, Wang said in a meeting with French President Macron that he hopes France will continue to play a constructive role in the healthy and stable development of Sino-European relations, while China hopes France will also create a fair and just business environment for Chinese enterprises there and provide positive and stable long-term expectations.
China state asset regulator says state-owned firms should take steps to develop and promote artificial intelligence and should speed up in building smart computer centres.
China’s draft legislation of private economy promotion has commenced, according to state media.
Japanese government cuts its view on the economy for the first time since November 2023.
China is said to be tightening its grip on stocks with net sale ban at the open and close, according to Bloomberg sources. Major institutional investors have been banned form reducing equity holdings at the open and close of each session. Firms affected by the ban are not able to offload more shares than they buy during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading day. The order was delivered from China’s securities watchdog to major asset managers and proprietary trading desks of brokerages, sources said. The CSRC (with newly appointed Chairman Qing) also created a task force to monitor short-selling.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.1%) are mixed with a slight positive bias, following on from a similar APAC handover. FTSE 100 (-0.8%) underperforms, hampered by significant losses in index heavyweights. European sectors are on a mixed footing; Autos outperform with broad-based gains within the sector. Basic Resources is at the foot of the pile, weighed on by Glencore (-5.5%) and Rio Tinto (-2.1%) following poorly received earnings. Banks are also lower, after softer HSBC (-7.1%) results. US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.4%, RTY -0.2%), are modestly in the red, continuing the losses seen in the prior session. Nvidia (-1.7%) is softer in the pre-market, ahead of earnings. In terms of pre-market movers; Amazon (+1.0%) and Uber (+0.6%) are firmer, after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they are set to join the DJIA and DJTA respectively.
Top European News
UK Chancellor Hunt will have GBP 23bln of headroom for pre-election tax reductions in next month’s budget, according to the Resolution Foundation, via Bloomberg.
Earnings
BAE Systems (BA/ LN) – FY (GBP): Sales 25.2bln (exp. 24.6bln), adj. EBIT 26.82bln (exp. 27.1bln), Board has recommended a final dividend of 18.5p. Q4: EPS 63.2p (prev. 55.5p Y/Y), Adj. EBIT 2.68bln (prev. 2.48bln Y/Y). Order backlog 69.8bln (prev. 58.9bln Y/Y). Guides initial FY24 adj. EPS +6-8%, Revenue +10-12%, adj. EBIT +11-13%. Shares -3.5% in European trade
Glencore (GLEN LN) – FY23 (USD): Revenue 217.83bln (exp. 216.02bln). adj. EBTIDA 17.10bln (exp. 17.35bln). Net Debt 4.92bln (exp. 4.43bln). Adj. Marketing EBIT 3.5bln (exp. 3.67bln); Recommends to shareholders a USD 0.13/shr base cash distribution. “Although the current macroeconomic environment remains challenging, global economic growth is forecast to bottom out in 2024.” “Supply constraints and energy transition demand prevented large inventory increases in most commodities during this cyclical trough, leaving markets well-positioned for a strong recovery as demand conditions improve.” “This is particularly the case for copper, where the closure of a major mine and various cuts to production guidance through the second half of 2023 have highlighted the persistent supply challenges facing the industry. These are likely to keep the market tight throughout 2024 against previous expectations of oversupply.” Shares -5.5% in European trade
HSBC (5 HK / HSBA LN) – FY23 (USD): Revenue 66.06bln (exp. 66.69bln). Pretax profit 30.35bln (exp. 34.12bln). Announces up to USD 2bln in share buybacks and a fourth interim dividend of USD 0.31/shr. Co. says the outlook for loan growth remains cautious for H1. OTHER METRICS: CET1 ratio 14.8% (exp. 14.5%). NIM 1.66% (prev. 1.42% Y/Y). Cost efficiency ratio 48.5% (prev. 64.6% Y/Y). OUTLOOK: Sees ROTE in the mid-teens for 2024. Expect banking NII Of At Least USD 41bln For 2024. The dividend payout ratio target remains at 50% for 2024, excluding material notable items and related impacts. Shares -7.1% in European trade
Rio Tinto (RIO AT / RIO LN) – FY23 (USD): Adj. EPS 7.25 (exp. 7.27). Underlying Profit 11.8bln (exp. 11.7bln). Revenue 54.04bln (exp. 53.94bln). Net Income 10.6bln (exp. 11.15bln). Underlying EBITDA 23.90bln (exp. 23.85bln). Co. said cost pressures and weaker market demand lowered underlying EBITDA by USD 1.0bln. Shares -2.1% in European trade
Carrefour (CA FP) – FY23 (EUR): Adj. Net 1.3bln (prev. 1.2bln Y/Y), Sales 94.13bln (prev. 90.81bln Y/Y). Raises dividend by 55% to 0.87/shr and launches new 700mln share buyback programme. CFO says the retailer plans to keep cutting prices this year in France to be more competitive; the Red Sea crisis has caused delays of one-to-two weeks on products coming from Asia to Europe and increased transport costs. Shares +4.6% in European trade
FX
Dollar is mixed vs its peers following yesterday’s session of losses which sent the DXY down to a low of 103.79 but stopped shy of testing the 200DMA at 103.68.
EUR is back on a 1.07 handle after pulling back from yesterday’s 1.0839 peak and back below its 100DMA at 1.0806. Yesterday’s low sits at 1.0761 with not much in the way of notable EZ newsflow to guide price action thus far.
JPY is relatively steady vs. the USD as the pair continues to pivot around the 150 mark and remains within yesterday’s 149.68-150.44 range.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD but NZD more so. NZD/USD has mounted yesterday’s peak and the 50DMA at 0.6181 with focus now on a potential test of 0.62. AUD/USD currently below yesterday’s best of 0.6579 and the 200DMA at 0.6563.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1877 (prev. 7.1068).
Fixed Income
USTs are essentially unchanged after Tuesday’s light session into the 20yr supply. An outing which hasn’t spurred any overt concession just yet, but this could well emerge into the US session. The yield curve is slightly steeper, whilst the benchmark itself is comfortably within Tuesday’s 109-19 to 110-05 bounds.
Bunds started the session on bearish/defensive footing, printing a trough at 132.89; initially unreactive to a strong German outing, but modest upside has emerged since.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with the above ahead of BoE speak from Dhingra; incremental upside to a strong 2028 outing.
Germany sells EUR 3.712bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.20% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.1x (prev. 1.77x), average yield 2.38% (prev. 2.23%) and retention 17.53% (prev. 19.78%)
Commodities
Crude is lower with fresh catalysts light, though focus still remains on the Middle East and China; Brent futures hover off lows and holds around USD 82/bbl.
Precious metals see upward biases despite the modest gains seen in the Dollar, but as market sentiment is tilting lower and geopolitics largely show signs of expanding; XAU met resistance at its 50 DMA (2,031.04/oz today).
Mostly firmer trade across base metals. 3M LME copper rose back above the 8,500/t mark and LME aluminium soared over 3% in early trade
Geopolitics: Middle East
China’s envoy to the UN said the objection to a ceasefire in Gaza equals a license to kill and is nothing different from giving the green light to a continued slaughter following the US veto of the Security Council draft resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza, while China expressed its strong disappointment at and dissatisfaction with the US veto, according to Reuters.
US Central Command said Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a Greek-flagged and US-owned bulk carrier bound for Yemen’s Port of Aden, while one of the missiles detonated near the ship and caused minor damage
UKMTO received a report of heightened uncrewed aerial system activity 40NM west of Yemen’s Hodeidah.
“Israeli sources: progress in hostage talks, Israeli delegation will head to Cairo”, according to Sky News Arabia
Geopolitics: Other
Ukrainian military intelligence chief Budanov said Russia will struggle to keep up the fight and Russians don’t have the strength to achieve the goal of seizing two eastern regions this year, according to WSJ.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry denied increasing military deployments on Taiwan’s offshore islands and said there is nothing unusual regarding the military situation around Taiwan, but stated that it is making preparations with the coast guard for possible new scenarios near offshore islands, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.3%
14:00: Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes
Central Bank speakers
08:00: Fed’s Bostic Gives Welcoming Remarks
09:10: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on SiriusXM
14:00: Jan. FOMC Meeting Minutes
17:30: Fed’s Collins Participates in Fireside Chat
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
One of the proudest moment of my career arrived in the last 24 hours as after 29 years of having a Bloomberg terminal, I found out that I breached their monthly download limit for the first time and was locked out. Before I apply for a pay rise based on my increased productivity, I can only think it’s because of the colossal spreadsheets that were involved in the making of the Mag-7 chartbook where Galina in my team and I worked out the profitability of every listed stock in every G20 country and amalgamated them to compare with the Mag-7. A quick call to their help desk and my account was thankfully restored.
Between publishing the above chart book 9 days ago and now, Nvidia has gone from being the 5th largest company in the US to initially the 4th and then the 3rd largest but yesterday it slipped back to the 5th again as it fell -4.35% ahead of a very important earnings release today. This was the worst daily performance since last October. However implied options suggest that that the post results move is priced to be 10.5% in either direction so stand by for potential fireworks across markets in either direction. After having said that they’ll probably end up being flat in after-hours trading by tomorrow’s EMR!
This move contributed to the S&P 500 (-0.60%) losing ground with the Mag-7 (-1.46%) and the Nasdaq (-0.92%) underperforming. Small caps also lost significant ground, with the Russell 2000 (-1.41%) moving back into the red year-to-date. To be fair, most sectors within the S&P 500 posted pretty modest declines, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 saw a moderate -0.31% decline with 197 advancers. That included a strong performance for Walmart (+3.23%), which was the fifth best performer in the index after their earnings beat estimates. And over in Europe, it was much the same story, with technology stocks helping to drag the broader indices lower, as the STOXX Technology Index fell -1.93%, even though the STOXX 600 (-0.10%) only experienced a marginal decline. Moreover in France, the CAC 40 (+0.34%) hit a new all-time high.
In the meantime, sovereign bonds got support from more dovish news over the last 24 hours, as the Canadian CPI print for January surprised on the downside. That was welcome news for investors, as recent prints from the US and Sweden had seen upside surprises, which added to fears that the path back to target was likely to prove a bumpy one. So with Canadian headline inflation down to +2.9% (vs. +3.3% expected), and core inflation also falling, that led to growing expectations that the Bank of Canada would soon be able to cut rates. Indeed, the chance of a rate cut by June surged from 58% on Monday to 84% by the close yesterday, and yields on 10yr Canadian government bonds fell -7.1bps.
That backdrop helped support a global sovereign bond rally. There were modest declines in Treasury yields, with the 10yr down -0.5bps to 4.28%, and 2yr down -3.0bps. The bond rally was slightly stronger in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-3.6bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) all fell back. And it was UK gilts (-6.9bps) that saw one of the biggest moves after comments from BoE Governor Bailey. He said that they “ don’t need obviously inflation to come back to target before we cut interest rates. I must be very clear on that, that’s not necessary ”. In addition, Bailey also said he was “comfortable with a profile that has cuts in it”, suggesting that the next move was likely to be a rate cut. In turn, investors became more confident in the likelihood of a cut by June, with the chance up to 66% by the close from 52% the day before.
Otherwise on the inflation side, there was better news from the latest commodity declines, with Brent oil prices (-1.46% to $82.34) falling back from their 3-month high the previous day. At the same time, there was a notable decline in iron ore futures (-2.01%), which hit a 3-month low amidst ongoing concern about demand from China. The Bloomberg commodity index declined by -0.44%, although it stayed half a percent above its 2-year lows seen last week.
Chinese stocks are bucking the global trend this morning as actions to boost sentiment are winning out for now. The Hang Seng (+2.40%) is off its highs but with the CSI (+2.30%) and the Shanghai Composite (+2.13%) catching up after the lunch break.
Other Asian markets are lower with the Nikkei (-0.24%), KOSPI (-0.32%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) trading lower alongside S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) futures. 2yr and 10yr US treasuries are -2.3bps and -0.6bps lower respectively.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s exports rose for the second consecutive month advancing +11.9% y/y in January (v/s +9.5% expected and against a +9.7% downwardly revised increase in December) on higher demand for cars and semiconductor-manufacturing equipment. Imports fell -9.6% y/y, versus Bloomberg’s estimate for an -8.7% decrease. As such the trade deficit of -1.758 trillion yen was slightly smaller than the -1.855 trillion yen expected.
There wasn’t too much data yesterday, although the US Conference Board’s Leading Index fell for a 22nd consecutive month in January, with a -0.4% decline (vs. -0.3% expected).
To the day ahead now, and an important highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the FOMC’s minutes from the January meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Bostic and the BoE’s Dhingra. Data releases include Euro Area consumer confidence for February.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
US futures are lower ahead of NVDA earnings, NZD bid & Crude softer; FOMC Minutes due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 06:00 AM
European bourses are generally firmer, though the FTSE 100 lags after significant underperformance in Glencore & HSBC; US futures lower pre-Nvidia
Dollar is incrementally firmer, Antipodeans bid in tandem with strong Chinese equity trade overnight
Bonds are mixed but edging higher in recent trade post-supply; attention on US 20yr supply later today
Crude is softer and Gold is modestly firmer with specifics light
Looking ahead, EZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, Australian PMI, FOMC Minutes, Comments from Fed’s Bostic, Bowman & BoE’s Dhingra, Supply from the US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Analog Devices & Synopsys
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.1%) are mixed with a slight positive bias, following on from a similar APAC handover. FTSE 100 (-0.8%) underperforms, hampered by significant losses in index heavyweights.
European sectors are on a mixed footing; Autos outperform with broad-based gains within the sector. Basic Resources is at the foot of the pile, weighed on by Glencore (-5.5%) and Rio Tinto (-2.1%) following poorly received earnings. Banks are also lower, after softer HSBC (-7.1%) results.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.4%, RTY -0.2%), are modestly in the red, continuing the losses seen in the prior session. Nvidia (-1.7%) is softer in the pre-market, ahead of earnings.
In terms of pre-market movers; Amazon (+1.0%) and Uber (+0.6%) are firmer, after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they are set to join the DJIA and DJTA respectively.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Rio Tinto, Glencore, HSBC, BAE Systems and more.
Dollar is mixed vs its peers following yesterday’s session of losses which sent the DXY down to a low of 103.79 but stopped shy of testing the 200DMA at 103.68.
EUR is back on a 1.07 handle after pulling back from yesterday’s 1.0839 peak and back below its 100DMA at 1.0806. Yesterday’s low sits at 1.0761 with not much in the way of notable EZ newsflow to guide price action thus far.
JPY is relatively steady vs. the USD as the pair continues to pivot around the 150 mark and remains within yesterday’s 149.68-150.44 range.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD but NZD more so. NZD/USD has mounted yesterday’s peak and the 50DMA at 0.6181 with focus now on a potential test of 0.62. AUD/USD currently below yesterday’s best of 0.6579 and the 200DMA at 0.6563.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1877 (prev. 7.1068).
USTs are essentially unchanged after Tuesday’s light session into the 20yr supply. An outing which hasn’t spurred any overt concession just yet, but this could well emerge into the US session. The yield curve is slightly steeper, whilst the benchmark itself is comfortably within Tuesday’s 109-19 to 110-05 bounds.
Bunds started the session on bearish/defensive footing, printing a trough at 132.89; initially unreactive to a strong German outing, but modest upside has emerged since.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with the above ahead of BoE speak from Dhingra; incremental upside to a strong 2028 outing.
Crude is lower with fresh catalysts light, though focus still remains on the Middle East and China; Brent futures hover off lows and holds around USD 82/bbl.
Precious metals see upward biases despite the modest gains seen in the Dollar, but as market sentiment is tilting lower and geopolitics largely show signs of expanding; XAU met resistance at its 50 DMA (2,031.04/oz today).
Mostly firmer trade across base metals. 3M LME copper rose back above the 8,500/t mark and LME aluminium soared over 3% in early trade
UK Chancellor Hunt will have GBP 23bln of headroom for pre-election tax reductions in next month’s budget, according to the Resolution Foundation, via Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Jan) -16.691B GB vs. Exp. -18.7B GB (Prev. 7.77B GB, Rev. 7.375B GB); PSNB, GBP (Jan) -17.615B GB (Prev. 6.846B GB, Rev. 6.451B GB)
South African Core Inflation YY (Jan) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.5%); Core Inflation MM (Jan) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
South African CPI YY (Jan) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.1%); CPI MM (Jan) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1%
EARNINGS
BAE Systems (BA/ LN) – FY (GBP): Sales 25.2bln (exp. 24.6bln), adj. EBIT 26.82bln (exp. 27.1bln), Board has recommended a final dividend of 18.5p. Q4: EPS 63.2p (prev. 55.5p Y/Y), Adj. EBIT 2.68bln (prev. 2.48bln Y/Y). Order backlog 69.8bln (prev. 58.9bln Y/Y). Guides initial FY24 adj. EPS +6-8%, Revenue +10-12%, adj. EBIT +11-13%. Shares -3.5% in European trade
Glencore (GLEN LN) – FY23 (USD): Revenue 217.83bln (exp. 216.02bln). adj. EBTIDA 17.10bln (exp. 17.35bln). Net Debt 4.92bln (exp. 4.43bln). Adj. Marketing EBIT 3.5bln (exp. 3.67bln); Recommends to shareholders a USD 0.13/shr base cash distribution. “Although the current macroeconomic environment remains challenging, global economic growth is forecast to bottom out in 2024.” “Supply constraints and energy transition demand prevented large inventory increases in most commodities during this cyclical trough, leaving markets well-positioned for a strong recovery as demand conditions improve.” “This is particularly the case for copper, where the closure of a major mine and various cuts to production guidance through the second half of 2023 have highlighted the persistent supply challenges facing the industry. These are likely to keep the market tight throughout 2024 against previous expectations of oversupply.” Shares -5.5% in European trade
HSBC (5 HK / HSBA LN) – FY23 (USD): Revenue 66.06bln (exp. 66.69bln). Pretax profit 30.35bln (exp. 34.12bln). Announces up to USD 2bln in share buybacks and a fourth interim dividend of USD 0.31/shr. Co. says the outlook for loan growth remains cautious for H1. OTHER METRICS: CET1 ratio 14.8% (exp. 14.5%). NIM 1.66% (prev. 1.42% Y/Y). Cost efficiency ratio 48.5% (prev. 64.6% Y/Y). OUTLOOK: Sees ROTE in the mid-teens for 2024. Expect banking NII Of At Least USD 41bln For 2024. The dividend payout ratio target remains at 50% for 2024, excluding material notable items and related impacts. Shares -7.1% in European trade
Rio Tinto (RIO AT / RIO LN) – FY23 (USD): Adj. EPS 7.25 (exp. 7.27). Underlying Profit 11.8bln (exp. 11.7bln). Revenue 54.04bln (exp. 53.94bln). Net Income 10.6bln (exp. 11.15bln). Underlying EBITDA 23.90bln (exp. 23.85bln). Co. said cost pressures and weaker market demand lowered underlying EBITDA by USD 1.0bln. Shares -2.1% in European trade
Carrefour (CA FP) – FY23 (EUR): Adj. Net 1.3bln (prev. 1.2bln Y/Y), Sales 94.13bln (prev. 90.81bln Y/Y). Raises dividend by 55% to 0.87/shr and launches new 700mln share buyback programme. CFO says the retailer plans to keep cutting prices this year in France to be more competitive; the Red Sea crisis has caused delays of one-to-two weeks on products coming from Asia to Europe and increased transport costs. Shares +4.6% in European trade
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House Republicans are reportedly expecting a government shutdown behind closed doors, according to Axios.
UBS Global Wealth Management now sees the Fed cutting rates from June (vs prev. view of May)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
China’s envoy to the UN said the objection to a ceasefire in Gaza equals a license to kill and is nothing different from giving the green light to a continued slaughter following the US veto of the Security Council draft resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza, while China expressed its strong disappointment at and dissatisfaction with the US veto, according to Reuters.
US Central Command said Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a Greek-flagged and US-owned bulk carrier bound for Yemen’s Port of Aden, while one of the missiles detonated near the ship and caused minor damage
UKMTO received a report of heightened uncrewed aerial system activity 40NM west of Yemen’s Hodeidah.
“Israeli sources: progress in hostage talks, Israeli delegation will head to Cairo”, according to Sky News Arabia
OTHER
Ukrainian military intelligence chief Budanov said Russia will struggle to keep up the fight and Russians don’t have the strength to achieve the goal of seizing two eastern regions this year, according to WSJ.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry denied increasing military deployments on Taiwan’s offshore islands and said there is nothing unusual regarding the military situation around Taiwan, but stated that it is making preparations with the coast guard for possible new scenarios near offshore islands, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (-1.3%) falls back below USD 52k, and Ethereum (-2.2%) dips back under USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed with headwinds following the tech-led declines stateside ahead of Nvidia earnings and FOMC Minutes.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by consumer stocks and miners in another busy day of earnings.
Nikkei 225 continued its gradual pullback from near-record levels but remained above the 38,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. shrugged off early weakness with outperformance in Hong Kong driven by strength in property and tech, while the mainland also recovered its initial losses and more following recent stability efforts by Chinese authorities.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China’s housing authority said a total of CNY 123.6bln of development loans have been approved and that CNY 29.4bln have been issued under China’s “whitelist” mechanism which was launched on January 26th and is aimed at injecting liquidity to the property sector.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang met with his French counterpart and said China is ready to strengthen strategic communication with France and forge more consensus, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, as well respond more effectively to global challenges. Wang also stated the two sides had in-depth communication on issues related to peace and security, while they agreed that multi-polarisation is indispensable for peace and stability, and will continue to strengthen strategic coordination. Furthermore, Wang said in a meeting with French President Macron that he hopes France will continue to play a constructive role in the healthy and stable development of Sino-European relations, while China hopes France will also create a fair and just business environment for Chinese enterprises there and provide positive and stable long-term expectations.
China state asset regulator says state-owned firms should take steps to develop and promote artificial intelligence and should speed up in building smart computer centres.
China’s draft legislation of private economy promotion has commenced, according to state media.
Japanese government cuts its view on the economy for the first time since November 2023.
China is said to be tightening its grip on stocks with net sale ban at the open and close, according to Bloomberg sources. Major institutional investors have been banned form reducing equity holdings at the open and close of each session. Firms affected by the ban are not able to offload more shares than they buy during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading day. The order was delivered from China’s securities watchdog to major asset managers and proprietary trading desks of brokerages, sources said. The CSRC (with newly appointed Chairman Qing) also created a task force to monitor short-selling.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Trade Balance Total (JPY)(Jan) -1758.3B vs. Exp. -1925.9B (Prev. 68.9B); Exports YY (Jan) 11.9% vs. Exp. 9.5% (Prev. 9.7%); Imports YY (Jan) -9.6% vs. Exp. -8.4% (Prev. -6.9%)
Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q4) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.3%); Wage Price Index YY (Q4) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.0%, Rev. 4.1%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.22 PTS OR .97% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 255.59 PTS OR 1.57% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 101.45 PTS OR 0.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1912
//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1976 /Oil DOWN TO 77.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82.17/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA
CHINA/
China has yet to learn from the free world not to interfere with markets
China suspends a quant fund for dumping $350 million dollars worth of shares in one minute
(zerohedge)
China Suspends Quant Fund For Dumping $350 Million Shares In 1 Minute
TUESDAY, FEB 20, 2024 – 08:51 PM
To appreciate how “sensitive” Beijing has become to any sharp and/or continued selling of Chinese stocks, now that public sentiment is adversely impacted by China’s relentless rout, look no further than major quant fund Lingjun Investment, which on Tuesday was suspended for three days amid broader regulatory efforts to revive market confidence. The fund’s transgression: it broke rules on orderly trading. Or, stated simply, at a time when it’s no secret that selling of Chinese stocks is frowned upon, Lingjun took it to the next level when the fund dumped a combined 2.57 billion yuan ($357.4 million) in A-shares in a minute between 9:30 a.m. and 9:31 a.m. on Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses revealed in identical statements on Tuesday, and said they would strengthen monitoring and analysis of quantitative, especially high-frequency trading. Such trading “has obvious advantages over small investors in terms of technology, information and speed” and could at times contribute to market volatility, the exchanges said.
The orders from Lingjun to dump stocks in early trade on Monday coincided with rapid declines in the benchmark indexes, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges said, adding they would restrict the hedge fund’s trading until Feb. 22. The implication was clear: anyone who likewise aggressively sells stocks, is next.
Lingjun is one of China’s biggest quant funds, and according to its website, it manages more than 60 billion yuan (supposedly that include the 2.5 billion the fund just dumped). The fund later apologized for the negative impact in a statement on its website on Wednesday, saying that the firm said it “holds long-term bullish views on Chinese stocks and will stick to long positions,” adding it will review the problems existing in transactions.
And just like that, selling stocks in China – especially in a brisk manner – is de facto banned.
Chinese quant funds, which use derivatives and data-driven computer models, have already suffered from a steep market sell-off this year and government curbs on short-selling. China’s blue-chip index dropped to five-year lows early this month but has since staged a powerful rebound as Beijing has vocally sought to prop up Chinese markets.
“Regulators are sending a clear signal that money should be handed to managers who profit from long-term investment, rather than swift trades,” Yang Tingwu, vice general manager of Tongheng Investment, said. Which means that investors such as RenTec, Citadel and Millennium whose investment horizons are measured in the milliseconds or minutes at best, are no longer welcome to China.
Ironically, Tingwu said the punishment could accelerate redemptions in quant funds as investors would ask: “Who’s next?” The only problem with redemptions is someone has to sell something, which could be a problem in China these days… so expect a whole lot of gating to take place in the next few weeks.
A hedge fund manager who declined to be named told Reuters that a three-day trading halt was not a huge problem for Lingjun, but was a further blow to confidence in quant funds as regulatory scrutiny intensifies.
As regulators seek to revive market confidence, China’s securities watchdog, led by newly installed chairman Wu Qing, held a series of seminars with market participants who proposed tighter scrutiny.
Chinese quant funds already attracted the attention of regulators last year after criticism, including from smaller investors and long-only funds, of a sector able to profit from share price falls and volatility. The industry has also been blamed for its role in causing the boom-and-bust of Chinese small-caps.
China’s quant hedge funds totalled 1.26 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, according to the latest official data. The industry has grown rapidly over the last few years, and has attracted foreign players such as Two Sigma and Winton.
END
CHINA
Then China bans stock selling at market opens and closes
(zerohedge)
China Bans Stock Selling At Market Open, Close; Limits Shorting
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 11:00 AM
One day after Beijing announced it would suspend one of the biggest domestic quant funds for “aggressive” selling, namely dumping $357MM in A-shares in just one minute, a panicked China where public sentiment is ever more adversely impacted by the country’s relentless stock rout, took the latest desperate measure to prop up the market on Wednesday when it banned major institutional investors from reducing equity holdings at the open and close of each trading day, part of the government’s most forceful attempt yet to prop up the nation’s imploding $8.6 trillion stock market which recently dropped to levels not seen since the early 2000s.
According to Bloomberg, the order – which from China’s securities watchdog – was recently delivered to major asset managers and the proprietary trading desks of brokerages. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), led by newly appointed Chairman Wu Qing, has also created a task force with the nation’s stock exchanges to monitor short selling and issue warnings to firms that profit from the wagers.
While increasingly panicked Chinese authorities have been ratcheting up curbs on bearish trades for months, the ban on net selling at the open and close represents a notable tightening of the government’s grip on market activity that risks upending popular strategies used by hedge funds and other institutional investors, especially those who short stocks. Firms affected by the ban are unable to sell more shares than they buy during the first and last 30 minutes of trading, the people said.
Bloomberg adds that while it remains unclear how widely the ban is being applied across the financial industry, and there’s no indication it will affect individual investors who account for a large portion of volume in Chinese stocks, the sidelining of major institutions during two of the most closely watched parts of the trading day may make it easier for government-backed funds to influence the market — especially the closing levels for benchmark indexes.
With Chinese stocks plunging for the past three years, and wiping out over $6 trillion in value, culminating with popular anger at the seemingly endless destruction of wealth which ignored every little thing China threw at it in hopes of slowing it down….
… Beijing has finally done something to effectively contain the market implosion in appointing Wu, best known for his tough clampdowns on brokerages as a CSRC official in the mid-2000s; the top regulator is increasingly resorting to more drastic measures to prevent the stock-market slump from extending into a fourth year.
The selloff, which pushed China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low earlier this month, has become one of the most visible symbols of waning confidence in President Xi Jinping’s ability to revive an economy struggling with deflation and a persistent property crisis.
While such panicked attempts to restore confidence never work in the long run and will eventually require an even more massive stimulus to prevent another collapse, the recent steps to contain the selling have generated modest results and The CSI 300 rose 1.4% on Wednesday, extending its rebound from this year’s closing low to 8.7%. It’s still down about 17% over the past year.
Beside the trading curbs, Bloomberg also notes that China is actively preparing to ban shorts as some brokerages have been asked to recall stock loans to clients for shorting purposes, people familiar with the matter said. Some quantitative hedge funds are still banned from cutting equity positions in their leveraged market-neutral funds — a strategy known as Direct Market Access that was halted in early February, one person added. Authorities have also given so-called window guidance to hedge funds not to place concentrated sell orders.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/
Israel has now divided the Gaza strip into north and south
(Jerusalem Post)
IDF seeks to divide Gaza in two to contain Hamas, experts say
Experts approve of this border, saying that it could prevent the smuggling of weapons throughout the Strip.
By MATAN WASSERMANFEBRUARY 21, 2024 09:36Updated: FEBRUARY 21, 2024 13:47
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip on December 30, 2023(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The head of the Arab media division in the IDF Spokesperson Unit, Avichay Adraee, issued a call in Arabic to civilians still remaining in the Zitun and Turkmen neighborhoods of Gaza City, telling them to evacuate to the humanitarian areas south of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday morning.
The areas in which the directive was issued are located next to a significant junction that the IDF has cleared in the south of Gaza City, effectively dividing Gaza into two parts. This is one of the significant logistical operations that the military has carried out in the Gaza Strip. IDF soldiers have created a partition on the Palestinian side of the Gaza border fence with Israel. It has already earned the nickname “Gaza crossroad” in both Israel and the Strip.
This partition is a straight line that stretches from the Gaza border in the area of Be’eri and Kibbutz Nahal Oz to the west and from the south of Gaza City to the coast, in the same area where the Karni-Netzerim junction used to be located.
Large numbers of IDF soldiers have been working on the construction and defense of the crossing since the IDF gained operational control of the areas next to it, and it is estimated that this significant change will last even after the war. Channel 14 recently revealed images of many parts of the road.
Expert approves of border dividing the Strip
In a conversation with Maariv Tuesday morning, Or Fialkov, an expert on Israeli wars and terrorism, who has been closely following the progress of the war in the Gaza Strip using open-source intelligence, said that this border is a significant obstacle that effectively divides Gaza into two parts.
Border in the south of Gaza City which divides the north of the Gaza Strip from the south of the Gaza Strip. (credit: Maariv Online)
“Israel is building a barrier between Gaza City and the rest of the Gaza Strip to the south, so we can say, ‘Welcome to the reality where there are two separate regions instead of the Gaza Strip: the north of the Gaza Strip and the south of the Gaza Strip,'” he said. “The road is surrounded by dirt walls, and there are already operations on both sides of it to establish checkpoints aimed at managing the separation of Gaza City from the southern Strip.”
According to Fialkov, it is possible that Israel will later decide to pave additional borders in the Gaza Strip as part of shaping the post-war policy in the South. “In my opinion, Israel should also establish a similar barrier south of Khan Yunis,” he said, “so that if Hamas smuggles weapons through Rafah again, they will not spill over into the entire Gaza Strip but will only remain in the Rafah area. That way, Hamas in the Gaza Strip will not be able to arm itself as it has armed itself in recent decades.”
Meanwhile, IDF forces continue fighting in the Strip. According to the IDF spokesperson, soldiers from the 7th Brigade combat intelligence team killed dozens of terrorists in western Khan Yunis on Monday by using tank and sniper fire, among other methods.
Additionally, combat soldiers from the Givati Brigade’s combat intelligence team in Khan Yunis identified a number of terrorists armed with an RPG-type missiles and a Kalashnikov-type weapon and eliminated them at short range.
The Israel Air Force, under the direction of the fire control center of Division 98, attacked a Hamas munitions warehouse in the area of the city of Khan Yunis. During the attack, secondary explosions were detected in the compound which, according to the report, indicated the presence of several weapons.
In the center of the Strip, the combat team of the Nahal Brigade continues to operate, having killed several terrorists throughout Tuesday. During the fighting, the brigade identified a terrorist in the area and directed sniper fire at him; he was killed within a few minutes.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel sets the timeline for the start of the Rafah offensive: the start of Ramadan
(zerohedge)
Israel Sets Timeline To Start Of Rafah Offensive, Issues Hamas An Ultimatum
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 02:45 AM
After ceasefire negotiations have faltered, Israel has given Hamas a new ultimatum, with top Israeli war cabinet official Benny Gantz saying that Israel will launch a full assault on the southern city of Rafah if all remaining hostages aren’t released by Ramadan. The Muslim holiday begins on March 10 this year, which is a few weeks away.
“The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know — if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue to the Rafah area,” Gantz told a conference of Jewish American organizations in Jerusalem on Sunday.
There have been airstrikes and sporadic ground raids on some parts of the refugee-packed city; however, the full assault has yet to come. On Monday 26 out of 26 European Union states issued a plea for immediate ‘humanitarian pause’ and for the impending Rafah operation to be halted. Hungary was the lone dissenter.
“To those saying the price is too high, I say this very clearly: Hamas has a choice — they can surrender, release the hostages, and the citizens of Gaza will be able to celebrate the holy holiday of Ramadan,” Gantz added in his statement.
This marks the first time Israeli leadership has issued a clear timeline on the start of the Rafah offensive.
Israel, following recent weeks of mounting pressure from Washington and other allies, has sought to assure the West that it will seek to evacuate those civilians willing to leave Rafah before the full assault begins.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi earlier this month explained, “We know that it is more difficult for us to fight in an environment where there are over a million people and another 10,000 Hamas operatives.”
The then pledged to allow for the safe exit of civilians. It’s believed the city has been inundated with over a million internally displaced since the war started after Oct.7. “In previous parts of the war, we sought to isolate the population. We have the capabilities to do it. We did it in Gaza City. We did it in Khan Younis. We did it in the central camps [of Gaza],” Halevi said.
As of last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also affirmed Israel is committed to civilian evacuations before the full offensive kicks off:
“We are going to do it while providing safe passage for the civilian population so they can leave,” Netanyahu said.
Asked by host Jonathan Karl where 1.4 million Palestinians are supposed to go, he responded: “The areas that we have cleared north of Rafah, there are plenty of areas there, but we are working out a detailed plan to do so.”
But there’s as yet no clear evidence of a massive evacuation of civilians from Rafah, and in reality the big question remains: where would they go?
Some international leaders have accused Israeli officials of simply floating false hopes and rhetoric in order to calm Western allies, particularly the US. In Europe there’s a move to prevent more arms from reaching Israel amid accusations of mass human rights violations, also as the Netherlands has been forced by a court to temporarily halt transfers of F-35 parts.
END
ISRAEL/.HAMAS/GAZANS
Gazans are taking taking to the streets in protest against Hamas’ leadership
(Jerusalem Post)
Gazans take to streets to protest Hamas leadership, call out Sinwar and Haniyeh
Since the beginning of the conflict, there have been several protests by Gazan residents against the terrorist organization, but this is still a rather exceptional event.
By MAARIV ONLINEFEBRUARY 21, 2024 09:12Updated: FEBRUARY 21, 2024 13:51
Palestinians at the site where two Israeli hostages rescued overnight in an Israeli operation in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, Feb. 12, 2024(photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)
Residents of Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip and Rafah in the south took to the streets on Tuesday night to protest against Hamas leaders amid the ongoing war with Israel. Since the beginning of the conflict, there have been several protests by Gazan residents against the terrorist organization, but this is still a rather exceptional event.
In footage circulated on Palestinian social networks, residents are documented calling out against Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and against the organization’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, who continues to live in luxury in Qatar.
The protesters also shouted for humanitarian aid, saying, “We need food, we need flour, Sinwar and Haniyeh, stay away from us, you thieves.”
IDF soldier killed as heavy fighting flares up again in northern Gaza
Military confirms large-scale operation launched in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, an area believed largely cleared of Hamas gunmen; aid groups suspend food convoys to area
Troops operating in the Gaza Strip in an undated photo released for publication on February 21, 2024 (Israel Defense Forces)
The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday that one soldier was killed and two others were seriously wounded as heavy fighting flared again in northern Gaza, where the military had previously said it had largely completed its main operation to destroy Hamas forces based there.
The soldier was named as Staff Sgt. Avraham Wovagen, 21, of the Nahal Brigade’s 932nd Battalion, from Netanya. His death brought the toll of slain troops in the ground offensive against Hamas to 237.
Separately, a soldier of the 932nd Battalion and a reservist of the 636th Combat Intelligence Collection Unit were seriously wounded by an anti-tank missile in northern Gaza.
The IDF confirmed Wednesday that it had launched a new large-scale raid on Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, killing Hamas operatives and locating weapons in the process.
The IDF said the Israeli Air Force and 215th Artillery Regiment carried out strikes against dozens of Hamas targets in Zeitoun, including observation posts, weapon depots, and tunnels.
The 401st Armored Brigade then entered the neighborhood, raiding suspicious buildings.
During the operation so far, dozens of Hamas operatives have been killed in clashes and in airstrikes, according to the IDF. The military also said troops have also found weapons in homes in the area.
Palestinian sources had reported heavy fighting and airstrikes in the past two days in areas of northern Gaza. The military on Tuesday ordered the evacuation of two neighborhoods on Gaza City’s southern edge, an indication that operatives were still putting up stiff resistance.
The operation in Zeitoun comes after the IDF said it had largely defeated Hamas’s fighting force in northern Gaza, withdrew its forces, and began to focus on smaller raids in designated areas.
Meanwhile, the IDF said that in Khan Younis, the southern Gaza city that has been the focal point of the offensive in recent weeks, troops were “deepening” the fighting against Hamas.
The IDF said the Givati Brigade led an offensive in new areas in eastern Khan Younis, killing many Hamas operatives in the process; the Paratroopers Brigade and Commando Brigade were expanding operations in western Khan Younis; and the 7th Armored Brigade directed airstrikes on two Hamas gunmen on a motorcycle.
In southern Gaza, a soldier of the Givati Brigade was seriously wounded as a result of an explosive device, the army said.
Troops operating in the Gaza Strip in an undated photo released for publication on February 21, 2024 (Israel Defense Forces)
The renewed fighting in northern Gaza comes amid growing international concern for the humanitarian situation in the area, which has been isolated since Israeli troops first moved into it in late October. Large swaths have been reduced to rubble, but several hundred thousand Palestinians remain there, largely cut off from aid.
They describe famine-like conditions, in which families limit themselves to one meal a day and often resort to mixing animal and bird fodder with grains to bake bread.
“The situation is beyond your imagination,” said Soad Abu Hussein, a widow and mother of five children sheltering in a school in Jabaliya refugee camp.
Ayman Abu Awad, who lives in Zeitoun, said he eats one meal a day to save whatever he can for his four children.
“People have eaten whatever they find, including animal feed and rotten bread,” he said.
Volunteers distribute rations of soup to displaced Palestinians in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 18, 2024 (Photo by SAID KHATIB / AFP)
Exacerbating the situation, the World Food Program said Tuesday it has paused deliveries of food in northern Gaza because of increasing chaos across the territory.
Entry of aid trucks into the besieged territory has been more than halved in the past two weeks, according to UN figures. UN and relief workers accused Israel of failing to ensure convoys’ safety amid its airstrikes and the ground offensive, and have described a breakdown in security, with hungry Palestinians frequently overwhelming trucks to take food.
The World Food Program said it was forced to pause aid to the north because of “complete chaos and violence due to the collapse of civil order.”
It said it had first suspended deliveries to the north three weeks ago after a strike hit an aid truck. It tried resuming this week, but convoys on Sunday and Monday faced gunfire and crowds of hungry people stripping goods and beating one driver.
WFP said it was working to resume deliveries as soon as possible. It called for the opening of crossing points for aid directly into northern Gaza from Israel and a better notification system to coordinate with the Israeli military.
It warned of a “precipitous slide into hunger and disease,” saying, “People are already dying from hunger-related causes.”
Israeli officials said the failure of aid trucks to reach Palestinians across Gaza was due to aid groups failing to organize properly.
A Palestinian collects books after an Israeli strike on a residential building in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. AP Photo/Hatem Ali)
Moshe Tetro, an official with COGAT, an Israeli military body in charge of civilian Palestinian affairs, said bottlenecks were caused because the UN and other aid groups can’t accept the trucks in Gaza or distribute them to the population. He said more than 450 trucks were waiting on the Palestinian side of the Kerem Shalom crossing, but no UN staff had come to distribute them.
The war began when some 3,000 Hamas-led terrorists rampaged across communities in southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking around 250 hostages. They still hold some 130 captives, around a fourth of whom are believed to be dead.
Israel launched a ground offensive aimed at rescuing the hostages and destroying Hamas.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says that more than 29,000 people have been killed. The figures provided by the health ministry cannot be independently verified and include both civilians and Hamas members killed in Gaza, including as a consequence of terror groups’ own rocket misfires. The IDF says it has killed over 12,000 operatives in Gaza, in addition to some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Four months later there has been little progress on efforts to secure the release of the remaining hostages and bring an end to the fighting.
The White House said Tuesday it was sending Brett McGurk, coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, to hold talks Wednesday in Egypt and Thursday in Israel.
The talks were to be focused on trying to push ahead with a deal to free the hostages and to dissuade Israel from launching a planned offensive in Rafah.
Israel has rebuffed repeated calls to drop plans for the operation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering, many in makeshift tents. Israel says Rafah is Hamas’s last military stronghold and the terror group’s leaders and some of the hostages are likely there. The military freed two hostages from Rafah earlier this month
Also Tuesday, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said it had confirmation that Hamas started delivering medications to the hostages, a month after the medications arrived in Gaza under a deal mediated by the Gulf state and France. The deal provides three months’ worth of medication for chronic illnesses for 45 of the hostages, as well as other medicine and vitamins, in exchange for additional medicines and humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/DAMASCUS
Looks like a targeted assassination
(Jerusalem Post)
Alleged Israeli airstrikes target Damascus twice in matter of hours
Sky News Arabic reported that the alleged targets of the missile strike were Iranians.
By TZVI JOFFREFEBRUARY 21, 2024 09:27Updated: FEBRUARY 21, 2024 14:25
A view shows a damaged building after, according to Syrian state media reports, several Israeli missiles hit a residential building in the Kafr Sousa district, Damascus, Syria February 21, 2024(photo credit: REUTERS/SANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Alleged Israeli airstrikes targeted Damascus twice within a matter of hours on Wednesday, with at least two people killed in the strikes, according to Syrian reports.
The first strike targeted an apartment building in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood of Syria’s capital on Wednesday morning, with at least two deaths reported in the strike.
SANA reporting an Israeli airstrike targeted the Kafr Sousa neighborhood of Damascus. Alleged Israeli strikes have targeted the neighborhood several times in the past.
Quote
Nadr Fares – نضر فارس
@nadrfares
·
5h
دوي انفجار في العاصمة السورية #دمشق وتصاعد الدخان من منطقة كفرسوسة
The Kafr Sousa neighborhood is known for having a heavy presence of Iranian militias, with the Syrian Capital Voice news site reporting that Iranian militias used parts of the targeted building as a headquarters.
Workers and people stand near a damaged building after, according to Syrian state media reports, several Israeli missiles hit a residential building in the Kafr Sousa district, Damascus, Syria February 21, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/FIRAS MAKDESI)
There were no Iranian casualties, Iran’s semi-official Student News Network said.
The second strike targeted the Dimas area, northwest of Damascus, according to Syrian reports.
The Kafr Sousa area has been targeted several times in the past in alleged Israeli attacks.
Last February, five people were killed in an alleged Israeli strike in the neighborhood. In 2008, Imad Mughniyeh, a senior Hezbollah leader, was assassinated by a car bomb in Kafr Sousa, with the US and Israel blamed for the attack.
The strike on Wednesday comes a week and a half after the last alleged Israeli airstrikes reported in Damascus. A few hours before that strike, Syria’s Defense Ministry claimed to have downed two drones launched from Israel toward the Damascus area.
The strike also comes a few days after the IDF struck sites belonging to the Syrian Army after projectiles were launched from Syria toward the Golan Heights.
END
ISRAEL SYRIA
NEW EXPLOSIONS!
New explosions reported in Damascus, hours after alleged Israeli strike
New explosions are reported in Damascus, hours after an alleged Israeli strike on the Syrian capital.
The pro-government Sham FM radio says the cause of the new explosions is currently unknown.
END
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hamas is pressured by Hezbollah to drop their high demands
(Jerusalem Post)
Hamas pressured by Hezbollah to drop high demands in deal, Arab expert says
“Hezbollah, for their part, think that they have exhausted this war, but they cannot stop their initiative,” Hugi said.
By MAARIV ONLINEFEBRUARY 21, 2024 11:44Updated: FEBRUARY 21, 2024 13:41
HEZBOLLAH MEMBERS hold flags during a rally marking the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, last month(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)
Hamas is reportedly being pressured by Hezbollah and mediators to drop high demands from Israel in a possible deal, Arab affairs commentator Jacky Hugi said in a Wednesday interview with Army Radio.
“Hamas is under pressure from home and abroad: one of them is Hezbollah,” he said. “In recent weeks, [its Secreary-General Hassan] Nasrallah and his men have asked Hamas to consolidate and claimed that their demand to release hundreds of prisoners with blood on their hands is unrealistic, and Israel would not be able to comply with it even if it really wanted to.
“Be practical,” Hugi said: “Hezbollah, for their part, think that they have exhausted this war, but they cannot stop their initiative. Nasrallah said from the very first stage: ‘We are fighting here to help the Gaza Strip in weakening the Israeli army, make it more difficult for them, and to increase the pressure on the government.’
“This is their help, and therefore, they will fight as long as they fight in Gaza. Four months later, Nasrallah has exhausted this fighting, and he was happy for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip because he feels he has achieved a lot,” the Arab affairs commentator said.
“Everything that happens from here on is already dangerous for them; they caused Israel to evacuate the population, took a toll on human lives, attacked bases, and tied forces to the northern border. All of these are achievements for them, but they are satisfied with them, and they said to [Hamas’ political leader Ismail] Haniyeh that his approach ‘is not realistic; you need to be flexible,'” Hugi said in conclusion.
Israeli forces operate in the Gaza Strip, February 20, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Former National Security Council head statements
In response to the statements, former National Security Council head Dr. Eyal Hulata said: “We failed to generate enough political pressure on Hamas, and I hope that they start to see something else: The leadership of Hamas abroad needs to understand that their future is clouded.
“No one thinks that the Qataris are doing what they are doing out of hatred for Zionism,” Hulata said. “It is clear that they are motivated by interests – including the Egyptians.”
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH//LEBANON
Three Hezbollah operational HQ’s attacked by Israel
(Jerusalem post)
Three Hezbollah operational HQs in Lebanon attacked by IDF
The IDF attacked three operational headquarters of terrorist organization Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, the military announced.
Israeli forces also attacked a military building containing terrorists from the organization in the village of Yaroun. The IDF identified a number of terrorists entering the military structure the day before.
end //
ISRAEL WEST BANK
Israel arrests 40 suspects in the West Bank
(Jerusalem Post)
40 suspects arrested throughout West Bank by Israeli security forces
Around 40 wanted persons were arrested throughout the West Bank on Tuesday night by the IDF, Israel Security Service (Shin Bet), and Border Police, an IDF spokesperson said the following morning.
During a counter-terrorism operation in Jenin, 14 suspects were arrested, and three terrorists were killed, with a few injured in the operation.
Israeli forces located weapons and uncovered explosives planted with the aim of harming the security forces. Also, during the operation, an IDF aircraft attacked terrorists.
In the town of Qabalan, southeast of Nablus, forces arrested three wanted men; in Al-Fatzil, they arrested three more; in the village of Qibya, they arrested four wanted men, five were arrested in Hebron, and in Rantis, they confiscated confiscated terrorist funds.
Israeli forces overall confiscated over NIS 10,000 in terrorist funds.
So far, since the beginning of the war, approximately 3,200 wanted persons have been arrested throughout the West Bank, over 1,350 of whom are associated with the terrorist organization Hamas.
END
USA/HOUTHIS/
Houthis Warn EU ‘Playing With Fire’ After Deploying Warships On Red Sea Mission
A high-ranking Yemeni official has warned the EU against “supporting the American devil to protect [Israel]” following the formal launch of the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea. “For Europeans, do not play with fire. Take a lesson from Britain,” Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, said via social media on Tuesday.
“You do not need the support of the American devil in protecting the occupying entity so that it can exterminate the people of Gaza with no disturbance,” Houthi added, stressing that “international navigation is safe.”
His message followed an announcement by Brussels of the official launch of the EU naval operation codenamed Aspides – Greek for shield.
“I welcome today’s decision … Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said via social media.
France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium have said they will contribute ships to the EU mission in support of Israel.
The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, described the mission as “bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community.”
With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides will see the deployment of EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to officials in Brussels, the mission will be exclusively defensive, and its forces will not partake in US-led attacks against Yemen.
Under the OPG umbrella, and in response to the pro-Palestine maritime campaign launched by Yemen late last year, the US and the UK have bombed Yemen hundreds of times since January 12, in violation of the country’s sovereignty and international law.
According to US Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, Washington’s conflict against Yemen in the Red Sea is one of the largest battles the US navy has fought since the end of World War II. “I think you’d have to go back to World War II where you have ships who are engaged in combat,” Cooper told the CBS News’ 60 Minutes in an interview broadcast Sunday. “When I say engaged in combat, where they’re getting shot at, we’re getting shot at, and we’re shooting back,” he continued.
Cooper, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) deputy commander, revealed the Pentagon has committed about 7,000 sailors to the Red Sea. CBS reported that the US navy fired about 100 standard surface-to-air missiles against Yemeni missiles and drones.
The Pentagon finally admitted to its loss: AnsarAllah Yemen shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone on the coast of the Red Sea yesterday.
Nevertheless, Washington’s actions have done little to deter the Yemeni armed forces, who have continued to target commercial vessels in the Red Sea linked to Israel, the US, and the UK. In response to the US effort to rally allied countries for war against Yemen, officials in Sanaa have vowed that Yemen’s armed forces would not back down.
“Yemen awaits the creation of the filthiest coalition in history to engage in the holiest battle in history. How will the countries that rushed to form an international coalition against Yemen to protect the perpetrators of Israeli genocide be perceived?” Ansarallah’s Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said in December.
back then he was there, he had hundreds of his employees digging, but he said that no plane could have brought down the towers, Trump said that then, he believed no plane, on Sept 11th, 2001
I used to have a video clip of Dr. Rima Laibow’s hubby General Albert Stubblebine (RIP) thundering, “A PLANE DOES NOT FIT IN THAT HOLE.” The hole, of course, was the Pentagon which a jet airliner allegedly flew into, as the story goes, (not that old saw, promo code, Dr. Peter…’s handler) at 400mph skimming the lawn with zero zip nada damage…
Don’t fuss SAGE, keep this going, this is a debate we will never ever get over and conclude and believe for they phucked our lives for good on that day, the freedoms and rights, up to today, my balls are fondled each time I board a plane, someone’s hand goes up my ass, these male screeners seem to like the island boys nuts and I get a prostate exam…each time for I don’t do the x-ray…I travel lots. My balls are bruised from the man handling and these bitches seem to like when I say ‘pat down requested’….ugh
so keep going…we need to get to the bottom of this…
end
SLAY NEWS
The latest reports from Slay News
Study of 99 Million: Covid Shots Caused Sudden Death SurgeA major new study, which documented the outcomes of 99 million people after they received Covid mRNA shots, has concluded that the injections are responsible for the global surge in sudden deaths and life-threatening illnesses.READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“Kiwi, Kiwi, Kiwi! Oy, Oy, Oy!” This Is The Most Important Thing To Focus On Right Now
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 10:45 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Kiwi, Kiwi, Kiwi! Oy, Oy, Oy!
Mr Market has many things to focus on today. There’s:
Chinese firms reintroducing the Mao-era practice of having their own militias;
President Biden allowing year-round sales of gasoline with 15% ethanol content, “to avoid potential regional spikes in gas prices” pre-election, according to Oilprice.com, but also a boon to US farmers ahead of the same;
Nvidia earnings – although this isn’t an equity Daily, I note the meme of an elephant, US markets, balancing on a beach ball, Nvidia earnings, being held up two ants, final AI demand;
A warning about the US fiscal deficit, 6.2% of GDP in a growth period, from ex-IMF economist Blanchard, with warnings from others about that being how/why the US is growing;
The Houthis trying to sink a ship carrying grain to Yemen, underlining they are shooting at anything;
Hal Brands, in Foreign Affairs’ ‘The Age of Amorality’, asking if the US has to become more illiberal to save the liberal world order (which is word for word what we predicted in our ‘World in 2030’ report written in 2020);
Australia announcing plans to double the size of its navy;
The British Royal Navy failing to successfully test launch a Trident submarine; and yet the government committing to downsizing the UK army to 72,000 as planned by 2025.
However, the most important things to focus on right now is the path of rates. When 2024 started, the market was screaming about 6 or 7 Fed cuts this year. My response was, “Are they gargling the bong water?” True, markets were basing that on Fed Chair Powell’s surprisingly dovish December press conference – which prompted me to wonder if he had been gargling the bong water given he must have known he was ringing a bell for a pack of Pavlov’s dogs. Yet here we are, not even two months into the year, and the market has scaled 6-7 cuts back to 3-4, and is even starting to price slim odds of a Fed rate *hike*.
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February minutes provided a further shock when they noted “…members considered whether to raise the cash rate target by a further 25 basis points at this meeting or to leave it unchanged.” A rate *hike* in an economy where the market had been pricing in a series of imminent rate cuts? And in an economy where the housing market, reliant on short-term mortgage rates based on the Overnight Cash Rate, is the be-all-and-end-all even more than in the UK or US? How can that be?!
The on-hand-but-on-the-other-hand minutes noted the Red Sea crisis was not a big issue(!) and China would export deflation (maybe Australia won’t use tariffs), but that services inflation remained high, wages growth robust (0.9% q-o-q today for Q4), and productivity very weak: they discussed whether “the adoption of AI would support a turnaround in productivity growth”, as if ChatGPT will stop a tradie charging hundreds of dollars to look at a sticky oven door.
Yet while the lack of surety was notable, the Bank thought “the level of aggregate demand remained above the economy’s supply capacity.” And that’s before they discussed planned tax cuts, now shifted to lower-income earners from higher, where, echoing the economic illiteracy of Ben Bernanke, they concluded “the effect would be negligible for plausible assumptions about differences in marginal propensities to consume.” Because poor people spend just like rich ones, don’t they?
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the first central bank to adopt modern inflation targeting, was ahead of the Aussies in turning hawkish. Despite the economy being in a technical recession, a week ago the local market was already making calls that the RBNZ might *hike* twice this year from the current level of 5.5%. Indeed, the date to watch is February 28, when the Bank hold their next meeting: a shock rate hike would send ripples right the way round the rest of Western bond markets.
Our Australia and New Zealand strategist Ben Picton is currently on the ground in NZ, and reports that it isn’t just a technical recession, but a real one. Boarded up shops are quite evident. However, he also notes that there is abundant signs of some doing very well: there are lots of expensive boats in Auckland harbour, plenty of cruise ships, and long lines of tourists at some high-end shops. In short, we might be talking about a K-shaped economy, which we all talked about a lot during Covid, and then immediately forgot after lockdowns ended. However, that winners-and-losers dynamic is evident globally in all kinds of ways.
The RBA and RBNZ really, really don’t want to hike: but they can no longer rule it out. On one hand, that threat might be necessary to cool the market’s heels – which is working. On the other hand, if aggregate demand remains above the economy’s supply capacity, despite the current level of rates, and the government delivers fiscal stimulus, what else is there on the table? (Perhaps the larger question is what central banks do in economies where aggregate demand is weak, but inflation is also still high!)
In short, markets will be hoping the Fed minutes today don’t look like the RBA and RBNZ versions; and they will be waiting nervously to see if they need to shout “Kiwi, Kiwi, Kiwi! Oy, Oy, Oy!” next week.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
What a waste of money
(zerohedge)
Exxon Threatens To Take Billions Of Dollars In Climate Investment Out Of The EU
Exxon has warned the European Union that it will leave and take billions of dollars in climate investment with it unless Brussels makes it easier to spend those billions on transition-related projects.
The Financial Times cited the company today as saying that there was way too much red tape in the EU and it took too long to get a project going, which prompted the supermajor to consider spending its $20 billion in decarbonization investments for 2022-2027 elsewhere.
“When we make investments, we’ve got very long time horizons in mind. I would say that recent developments in Europe have not instilled confidence in long-term, predictable policies,” Karen McKee, president of Exxon Product Solutions, told the FT.
“What we’re experiencing is the deindustrialisation of the European economy and we’re concerned,” McKee also said.
The European Union’s leadership has promised time and again it will facilitate transition projects but it seems it has been slow to act on this promise. According to Exxon—and a lot of other companies involved in the transition—getting a project off the ground in the EU is fraught with regulatory obstacles and “slow and torturous” permitting and funding procedures, per Exxon’s McKee.
The EU’s Green Deal plan features a “predictable and simplified regulatory environment” as one of its four pillars but judging from the reactions of the business world, this has yet to go from theory to practice. Faster access to funding is the second pillar in the EU’s lineup but that, too, is taking quite long to materialize.
It is these delays in implementation that have prompted business leaders to meet today in Belgium to press the EU leadership into going from words to actions. There is growing concern that the regulatory burden put on businesses is scaring them away, taking investments elsewhere.
There are also some European leaders, notably France’s Emmanuel Macron and Belgium’s Alexander de Croo, who have blamed red tape for the farmers’ protests.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
PAKISTAN
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0808 DOWN .0001
USA/ YEN 149.96 DOWN 0.010 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2626 UP .0001
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3523 DOWN .0001 (CDN DOLLAR UP 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 28.22 PTS OR .97%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 255.59 POINTS OR 1.57%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.65% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 255.59 PTS OR 1.59%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 28.22 PTS OR .97%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 101.45 PTS OR 0.26%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2030.60
silver:$23.09
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.97 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1698
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1993)
TURKISH LIRA: 31.00 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.714…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.286% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.452 UP 1 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.623 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;30 AM 2025.50
SILVER AT 10;30: 22.87
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 56.70 PTS OR 0.73%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 49.69 PTS OR 0.29%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16.87 PTS OR 0.22%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 69.00 PTS OR 0.69%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 316/72 PTS OR 1.00%
WTI Oil price 77.47 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.63 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.59; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 24//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4280 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1265 UP 5 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0816 UP .0007 OR 7 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2631 UP .0006 or 6 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.138 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.717%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.20 UP 0.232//YEN UP 23 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3507 DOWN .0016 CDN dollar UP 16 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 77.94
Brent OIL: 82.93
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.320%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS PTS to 4.487%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 4.653%
USA dollar index: 103.93 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.00 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.55 DOWN 0 AND 26/100 roubles
GOLD 2025.75 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.90 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 48.44 PTS OR 0.13%
NASDAQ DOWN 67.18 PTS OR 0.38%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.30 UP 0.08 PTS OR 0.52%
GLD: $187/68 UP 0.01 OR 0.00%
SLV/ $20.96 DOWN .11 OR 0.52%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Late-Day FOMO-ing Lipstick Rescued Market Pig Ahead Of Jensen’s Big Night
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 04:00 PM
No notable macro today, but we did note that mortgage applications crashed after rates pushed back above 7%…
Source: Bloomberg
But the FOMC Minutes and NVDA were all she wrote and the former was more hawkish than expectations and the latter spooked a few traders after recent networking/chip earnings (CSCO, PANW, AMD). Yes, that is Plao Alto -30% (and NVDA saw some ‘profit-taking’)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were sold as Europe opened and then Small Caps and Nasdaq were sold through the US open. The ‘hawkish’ FOMC Minutes spoiled the party and sent all the US majors lower but with 30 minutes to go, a wave of FOMO buying panic hit the market…
Source: Bloomberg
…which squeezed shorts…
Source: Bloomberg
…and 0-DTE malarkey helped…
…AND that lifted The Dow and S&P all the way to green on the day and pasted lipstick on an otherwise pig of a day for Small Caps and Big-Tech…
As VIX was curb-stomped late on, just like it was at the cash open…
Source: Bloomberg
Weakness from an ugly tail at the 20Y auction was exaggerated after the Minutes showed a Fed much more fearful of cutting rates too soon than being low too long, and that sent rate-cut expectations for 2024 even lower (back to 50-50 chance of 3 or 4 cuts, CPI lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and yields up uniformly around 4bps across the whole curve. That pulled all yields higher on the shortened week…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields are at their highest since Thanksgiving. Are stocks starting to catch down to bonds’ reality?
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar chopped sideways but ended lower on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold mirrored the dollar and closed unch…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin fell back to $51,000 today (yesterday’s lows) amid quite a swing-y week…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended higher on the day with WTI testing back up to $78 ahead of tonight’s API data…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Nvidia or not, US tech stocks are expensive… Fwd P/Es are at their highest since 2002…
Source: Bloomberg
Good luck tonight.
MORNING TRADING//
end
AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC
The crooks are worried!!
OMC Minutes Show ‘Most Officials Fear Risk Of Cutting Too Quickly’, Staff Mention Financial Stability Issues
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 02:05 PM
Tl;dr: The Fed is worried about cutting too soon more than waiting too long…
“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.”
And the higher stocks go, and lower crediot spreads go, the less urgency the need for a rate-cut:
“Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall.”
So, be careful what you wish for.
* * *
Since the last FOMC meeting, on January 31st, Bitcoin has been the outstanding performer. Bonds have traded lower in price since then while stocks have outperformed with the dollar and gold BOTH UP modestly.
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations have plummeted since the last FOMC meeting with March now off the table and 2024 total cuts down from 6 cuts to a 50-50 call between 3 and 4 cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
And as rate-cut expectations fell so Treasury yields rose notably with the short-end up over 30bps…
Source: Bloomberg
As The Fed has clearly won the jawboning battle to bring the market back to dot-plot reality…
Source: Bloomberg
All eyes will be on the Minutes for an explanation of why they pushed back against a March cut (but as a reminder, all the ‘ugly’ data – hot NFP, hot CPI, hot PPI – came after the Minutes).
So, what do they want us to know?
The headlines from the minutes are as follows:
On cutting rates (policymakers were more concerned about the risks of moving too soon to cut interest rates than waiting too long):
“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.”
On tapering QT:
“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer.”
On inflation fears:
“Upside risks included easier financial conditions and stronger growth. Others cited were “possible disruptions to supply chains from geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-side improvements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated.”
“A few participants mentioned the possibility that economic activity could surprise to the upside and inflation to the downside because of more-favorable-than-expected supply-side developments.”
On inflation surprises (the recent bad news on the inflation front will have come as a surprise to Fed officials):
“Many participants indicated that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to gradually decline further as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further. Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation.”
It didn’t:
On financial conditions:
“Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall.”
On geopolitical risks:
“geopolitical risks that could result in a material pullback in demand” and also “possible negative spillovers from lower growth in some foreign economies.”
On macro data accuracy (or not):
While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”
The staff outlook had some notable highlights:
Staff economic outlook was slightly stronger than December projection.
Staff placed some weight on chance that further progress on lowering inflation could take longer than expected
Staff forecast risks to economic forecast skewed to the downside.
And most notably, The Fed staff sounds a little nervous over financial stability issues:
“as valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to fundamentals” and “house prices increased to the upper end of their historical range.”
On CRE (worst to come):
CRE prices continued to decline, especially in the multifamily and office sectors, and low levels of transactions in the office sector likely indicated that prices had not yet fully reflected the sector’s weaker fundamentals.
And in the last few minutes, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman says that the current economic environment doesn’t warrant the central bank cutting interest rates.
“Certainly not now.”
Read the full FOMC Minutes below:
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
A Stunning 10 Million Illegals Have Entered The US Under Biden; Tucker Warns They Are “Destroying” The Country
TUESDAY, FEB 20, 2024 – 10:20 PM
A record 7.3 million illegal aliens have crossed the southwest border under President Biden’s watch, a number which according to Fox News.is greater than the population of 36 individual states.
That figure is sourced from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which has already reported 961,537 Southwest land border encounters in the current fiscal year, which runs from October through September, and if the current pace of illegal immigration does not slow down, fiscal year 2024 will break last year’s record of 2,475,669 southwest border encounters — a number that by itself exceeds the population of New Mexico.
The total number of southwest land border encounters since Biden assumed office in 2021 is 7,298,486, CBP data shows.
That number is larger than the population of 36 U.S. states including: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
In fact, the only states that are not in danger of being “replaced” are the blue ones.
Compared to the largest U.S. states, the 7.3 million number is about 18.7% of California’s population of 39 million, 23.9% of the state of Texas and its 31 million residents, 32.3% of the population of Florida and 37.3% of New York. It’s more than half the size of Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio.
As Fox News graphically describes, were the number of illegal immigrants who entered the United States under President Biden gathered together to found a city, it would be the second-largest city in America after New York.
Shockingly, that total does not include an estimated additional 1.6 million illegals who entered the US at other locations, nor 1.8 million known “gotaways” who evaded law enforcement, which would make the total bigger than the population of New York.
Taken together, over 10 million migrants have crossed into the U.S. illegally during the Biden administration, a record Biden’s critics assert could only be achieved by intentionally refusing to enforce the law.
“This unprecedented surge in illegal immigration isn’t an accident. It is the result of deliberate policy choices by the Biden administration,” said Eric Ruark, Director of Research for Numbers USA, a nonprofit that advocates for immigration restrictions.
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Late last night in Darién Gap Panama, I spotted a migrant bus transporting a bus full of invaders from Africa. The bus stopped in front of the San Vicente Migrant camp in Darien Gap to drop someone off. While the door was open, I hopped on the bus and started filming. I asked the driver who the owner was, where he was going, and why he was transporting migrants in the middle of the night. I spoke to the driver in Spanish and he refused to tell me who the owner of the bus was, but he confirmed the passengers were all migrants on their way to Costa Rica. All of the migrants in Darien Gap must pay $60 to get on a bus to Costa Rica which is part of the route to the United States via the Mexican border. These “migrants” are all headed to the US from the migrant camp in Panama. The driver didn’t want me filming and called his supervisor to ask him how he should handle me. I would have ridden the bus all the way to Costa Rica if he would have let me stay on. But I had to get off. Several of the Africans were wearing tribal outfits. The driver was clearly nervous that I was asking about who owns the busses and why they are transporting them at night from Las Blancas migrant camp. These invaders are Fresh off the boat (literally) in Darien, and now they are en route to the United States. From Costa Rica, the invaders then go to Nicaragua, Honduras, and then to Mexico where they enter the US via California or Texas. This is how the invasion is taking place. Don’t listen to the media when they tell you that it’s a conspiracy theory to say that migrants are being bussed around the world in the middle of the night. This is human trafficking caught on camera.
8:56
·
While some republicans and anti-illegal immigration activists have for blamed Biden for allowing the current overwhelming surge of migrants by reversing former President Donald Trump’s border policies – a fact clearly visible in the chart above when comparing alien entrants under Trump and under Biden, the White House has denied responsibility for the crisis and pointed to external “push” factors like violence and economic instability in South and Central America as the culprit responsible for vast waves of migration to the U.S.
Meanwhile, the president’s critics say migrants face more of a “pull” factor in the form of job opportunities and government benefits because they know they will not face deportation under Biden’s lenient policies.
“The administration has refused to enforce existing immigration law and taken every opportunity to aid and abet illegal border crossings — through policies such as catch-and-release, mass parole, and offering temporary work permits to tens of thousands of foreigners who make dubious claims for asylum,” Ruark told Fox News Digital. “In actual effect, the United States government is completing the human smuggling and trafficking process for the Mexican cartels.”
Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), said migrants have learned in the last three years that they won’t face deportation for entering the country illegally.
“They have sent the signal that if you come to the U.S. illegally, if you abuse the asylum system, you’ll be released into the country and allowed to remain here, in most cases given work authorization,” Mehlman said. “Even if you neglect to show up for your hearings, the odds of you being removed are negligible. The president claims he doesn’t have the authority to enforce our laws. He absolutely does. He is deliberately not enforcing those laws.”
There is another reason why the Biden admin has refused to crack down on illegal immigration: as we first revealed, all of the jobs since 2018 have gone to non-native born workers, which primarily means illegal immigrants.
Since then establishment economists and lunatic idiots such as Paul Krugman and Jerome Powell have claimed that these illegal immigrants are actually beneficial for the economy as they take jobs that Americans are “too lazy” to take and have helped push down wage inflation; meanwhile the CBO has taken this grotesque stupidity one step further, and projected that the surge in illegal immigration will boost the US labor force significantly more than previously forecast…
… with CBO Director Phill Swagel, going so far as predicting that “as a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenue will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise.”
“Got that?”, the Washington Post in-house propaganda appartchik asked rhetorically: Illegal immigration is not only not bad, it’s great for the country, as it enables Americans to remain lazy, it reduces wage inflation and ends up boosting GDP by trillions. In fact, the only thing preventing the US from entering a new golden age of growth is that instead of a mere 10 million illegals, the US should gladly accept 100 million or more, and be thankful to the Biden regime, which alone could come up with this absolutely brilliant theory of common sense, sanity – and of course population – replacement.
Of course, for a far saner take on what is really going on, listen to the latest Tucker, who in his latest video note says that “mass immigration is completely destroying our country.”
From CBO Director Phill Swagel: “As a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that, from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise.” https://cbo.gov/publication/59933…
On average, the economy looks OK. But averages are misleading. Several large groups of people are struggling. They all have one thing in common.
Case-Shiller home price index, CPI rent index, and the index of hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers.
Who’s Unhappy?
Those looking to buy a home but cannot afford the record high prices, are not faring well in this economy.
The last great time to buy a home was in 2012. Over the next eight years, home prices moved further and further away from wages.
When the Covid pandemic hit in 2020, we had record QE, record fiscal stimulus, mortgage rates hit record lows, and inflation hit the highest levels in 40 years.
In response, home prices soared out of sight. Worse yet, the price of rent rose at least 0.4 percent for 28 straight months.
Rent of Primary Residence vs OER
Data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Rent vs OER Chart Notes
OER stands for Owners’ Equivalent Rent. It is the price one would pay to rent their own house, unfurnished without rent.
Rent of primary residence is just what one would expect. It is measured price of rent, unfurnished, without utilities.
Mass Confusion Over OER
Contrary to widespread myth, OER is a measured price with very minor imputations that do not matter. OER is designed to track rent prices and it does. It is a measured price.
Much of the confusion comes from a misquoted BLS statement on OER, emphasis mine.
The expenditure weight in the CPI market basket for OER is based on the following question that the Consumer Expenditure Survey asks of consumers who own their primary residence: “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?”
Note that these responses are not used in estimating price change for the shelter categories, only the weight.
People quote that question as if that is how the BLS measures prices. It doesn’t. Prices, except for minor, irrelevant imputations, are based on actual measured rents.
No One Pays OER
The problem with OER is the weight not the measure. No one actually pays OER. Rather, people pay mortgages.
Yet, OER it is the single largest component of the CPI with a weight of 26.769 percent. Rent has a weight of 7.671 percent.
Many people conclude that the CPI is overstated because no one pays OER. The problem with this idea is home prices are at record highs and home prices are not in the CPI at all.
Homes are not in the CPI because economists consider them a capital expense not a personal expense.
But so what? Inflation matters not just consumer inflation. The Fed has made a big mess of things by ignoring obvious housing bubbles.
30-year mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, annotations by Mish
When the Fed slashed interest rates to zero, mortgage rates fell below 3.0% for an extended period allowing everyone to refinance at 3.0 percent or below. Most did.
OER rose from 332 to 403 between January of 2020 and January of 2024. That’s a gain of 21.4 percent.
Rent rose from 338 to 412. That’s a gain of 21.9 percent.
Whereas the renter is struggling, the homeowner refinanced lower putting extra money in his pocket every month.
Home owners also benefitted from rising wages, rising value of their home and a stable, not rising mortgage payment.
Winners and Losers
The homeowners are generally doing OK. The home ownership rate is 65.7 percent.
The 34.3 percent who rent are generally not doing OK.
The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I suspect most of the use is by renters.
According to the latest CPI report, rent was up at least 0.4 percent for the 29th straight month. Shelter, a broader category, rose 0.6 percent. Food rose 0.4 percent.
CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish
Whereas home owners have a fixed payment, likely refinanced lower than their initial mortgage, renters faces huge increases, not every month, but once a year, big bang.
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011 at best.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.
Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
With the recent rise in consumer sentiment, time to revisit this excellent Briefing Book paper. On reflection, I’d do it a bit differently; same basic conclusion, but I think partisan asymmetry explains even more of the remaining low numbers 1/
OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.
However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.
In addition to Biden’s Age and Senility, this allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.
Powell: When high inflation really threatens to become persistent, we use our tools to bring down inflation. It’s very important for that young couple — and particularly for younger couples starting out who may not have great financial means, that we succeed in this effort.
60 Minutes: You’re asking the American people for patience?
Powell: Yes. And I think people have been patient and have been through a pretty difficult time. And I think now we’re coming through that time and starting to feel a little bit better about things.
Powell, Krugman, and most of the economic writers, even at the Wall Street Journal have not managed to figure out over a third of the nation is struggling.
Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans
Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.
But hey, that’s OK because on average, the economy is great. Or do we really mean, on average the stock market is great, and the average homeowner is fine?
Hello Mr. Powell
There are two economies (the homeowners/asset holders and everyone else). However, there is only one interest rate. Patience please says Powell.
Lowering rates risks risks fueling the housing bubble and the most expensive stock market in history.
Hello Mr. Powell, it’s your move.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
VDH: Delusions, Alternate Realities, & The Biden Consortium
Hunter Biden has a train of a dozen lawyers defending him on felony indictments ranging from several counts of tax fraud to gun violations. From time to time, the contents of his laptop come up, both in these criminal trials and in civil suits. The information on the laptop is, of course, incriminating and useful to various prosecutors and litigants.
Yet Hunter himself is suing the computer repairman with whom he dropped off his laptop and never retrieved—and never paid—despite signing a waiver relinquishing ownership if and when in default of payment and claim.
But the weirdest element of the Biden labyrinth of illegality is that both Hunter and his attorneys footnote their writs and statements with the inexplicable notion that the laptop is not necessarily Hunter’s own—but then again, it could be.
In other words, they are not presenting evidence to show that either the photographs, texts, or emails are concocted, even while they are suing various parties for defamatory dissipation of the sort of true, sort of false contents. Translated: The surreal truth is that Hunter is very mad that what he did illegally in part is evidenced on his own laptop, and he wants that information either suppressed or disowned, but without perjuring himself by stating the material on his laptop is not his own—because of course it is his.
The same alternate universe surrounds Joe Biden’s cognitive decline. To prove that the Biden administration’s appointed special counsel was unprofessional and in error by referencing proof of Biden’s dementia, Biden gave a sudden and unusual press conference.
But almost immediately, he lost his temper. Biden lied numerous times in contradicting the evidence of the special counsel’s report, falsely claiming many files in question were not classified. He lied that the files were securely stored in locked cabinets when they were sloppily strewn around in boxes in a rickety garage. He falsely asserted that he had notified authorities once he discovered that he had classified files in his possession, although he did not do so for roughly another five years—just days before his administration was to appoint Jack Smith to investigate Donald Trump for many of the same alleged crimes that Biden might also have been guilty of. And inter alia, he referenced President Abd el-Fattah el–Sisi of Egypt as the president of Mexico—apparently as part of his public demonstration of his own mental cogency.
Biden further misled by damning the special counsel for supposedly prompting Biden about the date of the death of his son, the year of which Biden did not recall. But in truth, Biden himself, not Mr. Hur, brought up Beau Biden’s passing voluntarily to Mr. Hur—although again without the ability to cite the year in which he died.
Furthermore, it is President Joe Biden who serially raises the tragic death of Beau (who died in a Washington, D.C., hospital from a glioblastoma brain tumor), often among grieving gold star families, by falsely stating variations of “We lost Beau in Iraq.”
Note Biden’s general disconnect: serial lies about special counsel Hur’s report; lies that Trump’s once secure border is somehow responsible for Biden’s by-design open border; lies that Trump caused the Putin invasion of Ukraine on Biden’s watch that never occurred on Trump’s.
In the last week, Biden’s circle—press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Democratic Congress representatives and senators—have all publicly emphasized not just that Biden is alert but vigorous, hale, and more dynamic than most in his briefing sessions.
That alternate reality is at odds with 70-80 percent of the American people who variously poll in surveys that their president is not fit to serve and should not run for reelection.
The more Biden flaks insist the President is dynamic, the more he restricts his schedule to a three-day work week, forgets where he is and what he is to say, and confuses names, dates, and people daily.
Since January 2021, the southern border has been destroyed. It no longer exists as a protective bulwark of American sovereignty. Some 8 million illegal entrants have made their way into the US—illegally, without audits, criminal background checks, English fluency, or skills to become self-supporting.
No matter: for the last 1000 days, Americans have watched on their televisions and computer screens thousands swarming the border every day, juxtaposed with assurances from recently impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Kamala Harris, and President Biden that the “border is secure.”
Now with an election looming, the Bidenites are no longer either indifferent to or preening about their accomplishments of allowing (“surging”) millions illegally into the U.S. but instead scrambling to blame their suddenly declared “secure border” on Donald Trump or Republicans in Congress. Even more bizarrely, they are blaming the Congress for not giving them new laws and more money to resecure a supposedly already declared secure border, even though Donald Trump left office in 2021 with a genuine secure border and without any need for more appropriations or legislation.
President Biden keeps bragging about Bidenomics and its role in lowering inflation (January 2024: 3.1% rate of per-annum increase) and his massive deficit spending since January 2021 of perhaps $10 trillion dollars in borrowed money that spiked interest rates threefold.
Yet Biden ignores the fact that since he was elected, the average price of consumer goods has risen 17.2 percent. Even that increase does not represent the reality that most important consumer purchases such as staple foods, appliances, automobiles, rent, mortgages, building supplies, and home purchases have soared about 30-40 percent in the last three and a half years and have neither abated nor been matched by commensurate increases in wages.
The analogy to Biden’s fallacious argument that inflation is nearly licked might be that of a victim who suffered a near-fatal, unhealed wound and is then supposed to be relieved that subsequent additional wounds were relatively minor – even as he suffers permanent injury from the initial lesion. So the more Biden praises his fiscal policies, the more the public polls reflect the fact that in just three years, accustomed consumer goods are now unaffordable.
A final example of these strange disconnects is the Biden administration’s courtship of Iran. The more it has lifted sanctions on Iran, begged to restart the Iran deal, restored funding to Iranian surrogates like Hamas, or taken the terrorist Houthis off the terrorist list, the more Iranian satellites have butchered Israelis and attacked 170 American installations. In response, the more the United States offers the boilerplate that, while Iran may have supplied such aggressors, there is no direct evidence of Iranian skullduggery to justify an accounting from Teheran.
So everyone knows Iran is at the heart of the exploding Middle East, and everybody knows that they are not supposed to say they know, lest it lead to holding Iran accountable.
What explains all these alternate realities?
In a word, we are witnessing the meltdown of an entire American presidency. It was born in a 2020 Faustian bargain in which a cognitively challenged, ethically compromised candidate agreed to run by offering a pseudo-moderate veneer in exchange for the support of the far left, which in turn owned his agenda.
Since then, the Biden apparat has tried to square the circle of packaging and promoting a far-left menu that the American people did not want, delivered to them by someone who, by any fair standard, would not be able to serve as a teacher, Uber driver, or lawyer. The result was the present construct of a supposedly dynamic president promoting a traditional Democratic agenda that has succeeded brilliantly here and abroad.
And to sustain that myth requires constant deception and falsehood.
END
SWAMP STORIES
Amazing!!
Nevada Residents Shocked To Discover They Voted In Primary
TUESDAY, FEB 20, 2024 – 09:20 PM
‘Numerous’ Nevada voters were shocked to discover that they voted in the Feb. 6th presidential primary, despite not having done so – the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.
Las Vegas resident and registered Republican Daphne Lee told the outlet that her family checked the secretary of state’s website on Sunday to look up their voter history after hearing about the issue. The site showed that she and her family had voted in the primary despite none of them having done so. She attempted to opt out of future mail-in ballots and was unable to do so – with a message saying she was not currently registered to vote, and that her voting history no longer existed.
“It’s just so frustrating,” Lee said, adding “This makes everyone uncomfortable.”
The secretary of state’s office claims that it has identified ‘possible technical issues’ relating to Nevadans’ voting history, and that elections and IT staff immediately began collaborating with county clerks and registrars Monday morning.
According to the report, the systems used by some counties require additional steps to ensure that voters who did not actually vote, don’t have a voting history, the SoS office said, adding that some of these steps were not taken.
“Our office has been validating new files from each county and moving them into production as soon as the accuracy of the data is verified.”
It determined that the problem resulted in some counties not taking the proper steps to upload their voter registration. Every night each county uploads their voter registration to the secretary of state’s database, which executes code to create the statewide voter registration file that Nevadans see when they log into vote.nv.gov, according to the secretary of state’s office. –Las Vegas Review-Journal
The SoS added that the data should be fixed within 48 hours, and they will produce a comprehensive report to detail what happened.
“Again, this is an error that relates to the code used for when a voter is sent a mail ballot and does not return it; it has no connection in any way to vote tabulation,” the office said in a statement, adding “The top-down Voter Registration and Election Management System (VREMS) project at the Secretary of State’s office will go live prior to the June 2024 election, and remove the need for these outdated processes.”
According to Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), the secretary of state’s office is working to resolve the issues.
In a Monday statement, the Nevada Republican Party said it received reports from numerous registered Republican voters who did not participate in the presidential primary that their mail ballot was received and counted by the state.
The Nevada Republican Party is in communication with the secretary of state’s office to conduct an investigation into the issues, the Nevada GOP said in the statement. -LVRJ
“We take these reports very seriously,” said Chairman Michael McDonald, who has previously expressed doubt over the validity of the 2020 election. “The cornerstone of our Republic is the trust and confidence of the American people in the electoral process. Any indication of irregularities must be thoroughly investigated to ensure the integrity of our elections.”
end
I guess that this is the cost for a vote for a Democrat. Very shocking
(zerohedge)
Jackpot: NYC Mayor To Give Migrants Pre-loaded Debit Cards Worth Up To $10,000
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 12:00 PM
A shocking ten million illegals have crossed the southern border into the US under President Biden’s watch so far. Thousands of lucky migrants who end up in the progressive hellhole of New York City could soon receive pre-loaded debit cards with amounts as much as $10,000 under a new controversial program launched by Democrat Mayor Eric Adams.
The New York Post reports Adam’s genius plan to give unvetted illegals taxpayer funds is set to begin with 500 families staying at the luxurious Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown Manhattan.
In February, the mayor told a reporter about the debit card program in response to a question: “We’re doing a pilot project with 500 people.” Each migrant in the pilot program is expected to receive a Mastercard debit card with $1,000 per month, allowing them to splurge on items at convenience stores.
Breaking News: Mayor Adams plan is to give Illegal’s $10,000 each with No ID check required, No Fraud control and No Restrictions.
·
30M Views
The no-bid contract’s fine print with sketchy fintech firm Mobility Capital Finance leaves the option to helicopter drop upwards of $2.5 billion in taxpayer funds over one year. The fintech firm outlined it needed $53 million in fees to hand out free money.
NYPost said:
When The Post exposed the mayor’s debit card program earlier this month, the mayor’s office spun it as a money-saving program, to solve a problem: Migrants staying in hotels don’t eat all their food.
Meanwhile, the head of the City Council’s oversight and investigations committee is having a tough time understanding why the city issued the $53 million no-bid contract without shopping around.
“I think you should bid it out to see who would do the best job at the best cost for taxpayers,” Councilmember Gale Brewer said.
Unlike SNAP food debit cards, which are programmed only to pay for specific food items, Adams’ potential multi-billion-dollar debit card program has zero protections and no fraud control.
In any case, we find tax money flows freely to foreign nationals, and immigration to the United States is heavily subsidized.
We should not be surprised when a lot of immigrants show up to get their share.
But really, Milton Friedman explained it best, decades ago! Simply put, he ‘economicist-ly’ points out that immigration is not all bad, only as long as it’s illegal. That way, they cannot qualify for social security and welfare…
Or, maybe let’s ask this question: Will Democrats be siphoning the taxpayer funds via migrant debit cards for election-related purposes?
Also, can anyone identify as a migrant to receive the free money? We’re sure working poor New Yorkers struggling to survive in an era of failed Bidenomics would love debit cards full of money.
This is the latest example of Democrats prioritizing illegals over Americans ahead of the elections. We wonder why?
end
“Close To A Deal Or It’s About To Blow Up”: Speaker Johnson Enters McCarthy Territory As March Deadline Looms
WEDNESDAY, FEB 21, 2024 – 01:20 PM
While House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) last week told reporters “We think we’re going to meet the deadlines” to avert a government shutdown, House Republicans are preparing for the worst closed doors, Axios reports.
“People are predicting a shutdown even if it’s just for a few days,” one GOP lawmaker told the outlet, which notes that the government will start a two-phased government shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1.
They’re either “close to reaching a deal or it’s about to blow up,” one subcommittee chair recently told a fellow House Republican.
Meanwhile, if a new budget isn’t agreed upon by April 30, it will trigger a 1% across-the-board spending cut – meaning that even if a stopgap is reached, Democrats won’t back anything past that date (since across-the-board cuts would be “A-OK for some House conservatives”).
Johnson will have to either stage a fight with Democrats that threatens a shutdown, or work with Democrats to help pass a stopgap – exactly the move that resulted in Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, being ousted from his role.
Johnson’s simple but risky option to avoid a shutdown would be to use Democratic votes to pass a deal with a two-thirds majority.
But McCarthy’s ouster in October was sparked by him working with Democrats on a spending stopgap.
“It’s going to be difficult to do what we need to do and not have someone do” a motion to vacate, a member who isn’t supportive of removing Johnson told Axios. -Axios
That said, Republicans have no plans for what to do if they oust Johnson and make yet another competition for Speaker the central focus going into May.
The report comes months after Congress kicked the can down the road with an 87-11 vote to back a temporary funding package.
Meanwhile, the House – which is on recess, isn’t scheduled to return until Feb. 28, just days before the March 1 partial shutdown is set to trigger. If there isn’t a plan by March 8, a full shutdown will occur.
KING REPORT
The King Report February 21, 2024 Issue 7184
Independent View of the News
Chinese stocks declined sharply on Tuesday; but the second consecutive late intervention pushed major Chinese equity indices to modest gains by the close.
Nvidia tumbled as much as 6.4% on Tuesday; AMD sank as much as 6.1%; and trading sardine Super Micro Computer plunged as much as 13.8%. Did someone have inside info about Nvidia’s results that are due are today’s NYSE close, or did some critical mass of traders decide to book profits before earnings?
Nvidia hit a daily low at 10:30 ET, after a modest bounce, NVDA fell to a new low on this:
Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About “Choiceful” Consumers Spending Lesshttps://t.co/XiWGIFgiHU
Walmart hit a daily high of 181.35 at 9:35 ET on lemming buying for the headline EPS ‘beat.’ By 11:54 ET, WMT had fallen to 175.23.
Walmart agrees to buy smart TV maker Vizio for $2.3B — sending Roku stock plunginghttps://trib.al/xJTAAtx
@MacroEdgeRes: Home Depot saw its quarterly earnings decline a 5th straight quarter as people are apparently using AI servers for wall siding.
ESHs opened modestly higher when Nikkei trading commenced; they quickly sank, hitting a low near 21:00 ET. They rallied in concert with the Chinese manipulation. When China closed, ESHs traded sideways until they broke modestly lower after 5 ET. After a modest rebound, ESHs traded sideways, again, until they broke down when the NYSE opened.
ESHs hit a daily low of 4968.25 at 12:36 ET. A moderate Noon Balloon developed. In the afternoon, ESHs traded sideways with a slight upward bias until ESHs moved higher after 14:45 ET. The modestly rally ended at 15:00 ET. ESHs went inert until they broke lower at 15:30 ET. After a modest rebound that ended in 5 minutes, ESHs traded sideways, in tight range, until they spiked 6.00 higher at 15:59 ET.
(White House) NSC spokesman John Kirby said Biden on Friday will issue sanctions on Russia/Putin in response to Navalny’s death. US sanctions to date on Russia over Ukraine have been as effective as ‘double secret probation.’ What comes after that?
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied moderately Equities, once again, rebounded at midday after a decline during morning NYSE trading
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got killed due to Nvidia and AMD US major equity indices decline moderately
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the Mag 7 Bubble bursting?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4974.75 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4993.71; 4955.02
Mike Benz to Tucker Carlson: From NATO’s Perspective, the Entire Post-War World Order Would Collapse Unless They Censored the Internet “Free speech on the internet was an instrument of statecraft almost from the privatization of the internet in 1991… Free speech was championed more than anybody by the Pentagon, the State Department, and the CIA cutout-NGO blob architecture as a way to support dissident groups around the world overthrow ‘authoritarian governments,’ as they were billed.”… “Google is a great example of this, Google began as a DARPA grant by Larry Page and Sergey Brin when they were Stanford PhDs, and they got their funding as part of a joint CIA/NSA program to chart how ‘birds of a feather flock together’ online through search engine aggregation. And then one year later, they launched Google and became a military contractor quickly thereafter.” “All of the internet free speech technology was initially created by our national security state. VPNs to hide your IP address, TOR and the dark web to be able to buy and sell goods anonymously, and encrypted chats. All these things were created as DARPA projects or joint CIA/NSA projects to be able to help intelligence-backed groups to overthrow governments that were causing problems to the Clinton administration, Bush administration, and Obama administration.”… “This plan worked magically from about 1991 to about 2014 when there began to be an about-face on internet freedom and its utility.”… “In 2014, after the coup in Ukraine, there was an unexpected countercoup where Crimea and the Donbas broke away with essentially a military backstop that NATO was highly unprepared for at the time,” he said… “NATO, at that point, declared something called the Gerasimov Doctrine… that the fundamental nature of war has changed, you don’t need to win military skirmishes to take over Central and Eastern Europe, all you need to do is control the media and social media ecosystem because that is what controls elections…. “Brexit was June 2016, the very next month at the Warsaw Conference, NATO formally amended it charter to expressly commit to hybrid warfare as this new NATO capacity. They went from basically 70 years of tanks to this explicit capacity building for censoring tweets that they deemed to be Russian proxies… “From their perspective, if the military did not begin to censor the internet, all of the democratic institutions and infrastructure that gave rise to the modern world after World War Two would collapse.” https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/02/16/mike_benz_to_tucker_carlson_from_natos_perspective_the_entire_post-war_world_order_would_collapse_unless_they_censored_the_internet.html
Largest-ever COVID vaccine study links shot to small increase in heart and brain conditionshttps://t.co/kl8Ppjw4ON
Secretary of State urged staffers to avoid ‘problematic’ terms like ‘manpower’ and ‘mother/father’ When staffers inadvertently use the wrong pronouns to address someone, Blinken asks that they handle the slip-up with “subtlety and grace,” while keeping in mind that gender identity “may be fluid, so remain attuned to and supportive of shifts in pronouns.” (With the globe ablaze…) https://t.co/BLBx6pzIVT
Forget Iran, Russia and China — Antony Blinken is targeting your pronouns https://trib.al/I1KLwrr
70% of New York voters say Biden not fit to serve another term: poll Only 48% of fellow Democrats said Biden is fit to serve… https://trib.al/oQDKOO6
GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: Axios reports that Team Biden is banking big on the State of the Union to turn his presidential campaign around. Has Team Biden ever watched Joe Biden give a speech before?
Amazon will replace Walgreen’s in the DJIA. Amazon CEO Bezos sold $2.37B of AMZN per BBG.
Today – Nvidia is expected to report 4.60 EPS after the NYSE closes. As most everyone knows, the Mag 7 has been keeping stocks buoyant in 2024. Beaucoup traders, operators, and investors got massively long ahead of Nvidia’s results on AI euphoria. Ominously, it appears a critical mass of traders did NOT want to wait for Nvidia’s results and started liquidating yesterday.
The S&P 500 Index blew through the double bottom marked by Thursday’s low of 4999.44 and Friday’s low of 4999.52. At best, great Nvidia results might generate a transitory rally. However, short-term trading models suggest that it’s time for stocks to retreat.
Expected Economic Data: FOMC Meeting Minutes from 1/31
ESUs are -9.50, NQHs (Naz 100) are -63.75 (on NVDA trepidation) and USHs are -4/32 at 20:19 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4822; 100-day MA: 4598; 150-day MA: 4555; 200-day MA: 4490 DJIA 50-day MA: 37,780; 100-day MA: 35,962; 150-day MA: 35,581, 200-day MA: 35,117 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index ( 5005.57 close) – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4782.26 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4930.47 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5003.33 triggers a buy signal
Numerous Nevada voters looked at their voter history and found that their mail ballots were counted in the recent primary, even though they didn’t participate in it. https://t.co/VHQfm9ei80
US elections are a joke; the fraud is massive and incalculable.
New York Times publisher admits White House gets ‘extremely upset’ with its reporting on Biden’s age, poor pollinghttps://t.co/kWAQlUjZo4
@RickyDoggin: The man who has been filing lawsuits in every state to get Donald Trump removed from the 2024 election ballot has been arrested & charged with filing 17 sets of false tax documents to the IRS. You literally cannot make this up, this guy told judges Donald Trump was a criminal when in actuality, he was a criminal.https://twitter.com/RickyDoggin/status/1759623388509929853
@RNCResearch: FOX’s @BillMelugin_: “Texas is locked down, so a lot of this illegal [immigration] traffic is moving to the west — to blue states like California, like Arizona…” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1759992000814727236
@BillMelugin_: Per CBP sources, there were another 208 Chinese nationals apprehended by Border Patrol in San Diego sector yesterday. In the last 3 days alone, there have been 452 Chinese apprehended in San Diego sector. Those 3 days are already more than all of the Chinese encountered in the entirety of fiscal year 2021 across the southern border.
@nypost: One person has been arrested after a dramatic caught-on-video confrontation between NYPD officers and migrants at the increasingly lawless Randall’s Island tent city. https://trib.al/ZN5EogB
GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn @VoteMarsha: In a girls’ basketball game, a 6-foot-tall biological male player injured 3 girls before halftime– causing them to forfeit the game. When will enough be enough? We must stand up and protect women’s sports from this INSANITY.
Team forfeits after girls basketball player allegedly hurt in play with male who identifies as femalehttps://trib.al/aC4jkGM
How Aids was unleashed upon Africa – But still we don’t know how it began. Edward Hooper returns to Uganda where 14 years ago he first charted the scale of the calamity. His fears have been confirmed, he argues: we unwittingly sparked the horror with a contaminated polio vaccine (July 8, 2000) https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2000/jul/09/focus.news
Did the end of smallpox vaccination cause the explosive spread of HIV? May 18, 2010 Researchers writing in the open access journal BMC Immunology suggest that the end of smallpox vaccination in the mid-20th century may have caused a loss of protection that contributed to the rapid contemporary spread of HIV… https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100517204405.htm
Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter says the market is exuberant with the idea the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to cut interest rates as the economy sinks. Holter has warned about the US dollar turning into confetti because of massive dollar printing and more and more bank bailouts. Holter is taking the other side of the rate cutting bet, and he thinks the Fed will do just the opposite. Holter says, “If you look at the amount of debt service the federal government is paying, it’s over $1 trillion a year. That’s going to go to $1.5 trillion, and then it will go to $2 trillion in interest a year. There is no reflection of deterioration of credit in the rates themselves. I foresee the day, and it may be within the next year, that the Fed is forced to raise interest rates to defend the dollar. That’s the problem. You have bad credit with the country who issues the world’s reserve currency. . . .If all of a sudden the dollar falls apart, how does evil get paid to preform? How do we fight wars?”
Holter goes on to say, “The US Treasury, this year alone, has more than $6 trillion plus the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in deficit that they will run. They are going to have to borrow this money this year. Where are they going to borrow that from? Who are they going to borrow it from? Is the Fed just going to conjure the money up and buy the bonds? The Fed lost $114 billion last year, and they are technically insolvent, as is the European Central Bank, as is the Bank of Japan, as is the Bank of England. These central banks are technically insolvent because their assets have dropped in value because interest rates have gone higher. The bond prices have dropped by more than what their equity was worth. . . . The whole system is running on nothing. There is nothing holding it up.”
Several years ago, Bill Holter envisioned a Mad Max type of scenario unfolding because of all the exploding and unpayable debt. Holter heard snickers, but nobody is laughing at his prediction now. Holter says, “Once the credit spigots stop, you are going to see everything stop. You’ll see no goods in stores. You may or may not have water. You may or may not have electricity. Who knows what is not going to work. Everything runs on credit. Without credit I think you could see a 60% to 70% drop in actual GDP, and there is your Mad Max scenario. . . Commerce is not going to happen if there is no credit available.”
On the election coming up in November, Holter sees a 50/50 chance of it not happening. Holter says, “If Trump wins, they will be jailing people left and right.”
On gold, Holter says, “Gold never defaults, and it will act as a risk barometer. Gold will be going much higher in price. . . .We live in the most indebted time in history.”
There is much more in the 51-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 2.20.23.
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