MARCH 5//GOLD CLOSED UP $16.55 TO $2133.50/SILVER WAS DOWN 2 CENTS TO $23.77/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $15.05 TO $885.20 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $27.45 TO $951.70/CHINA’S APPLE SALES PLUNGE 24%//LEFTISTS KNOCK OUT ELECTRICAL GRID RESPONSIBLE FOR TESLA PRODUCTION IN GERMANY//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//WEST BANK UPDATES/HOUTHIS VS WEST//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES//MARK CRISPIN MILLLER/SLAY NEWS ETC//USA SERVICE DATA SUGGESTS STAGLATION TO HAVE HIT IN FEBRUARY//OUR GOOD FRIEND JOE BIDEN SECRETLY FLEW IN 320,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS INTO THE USA WHICH MUST BE TREASONABLE//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $62,317 DOWN 5182 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $13.90 AT $900.25
Palladium price; DOWN $30.90 AT $924.25
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 4 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,894,00 UP $21.24 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,894.00CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MARCH 5 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 175,32 UP 9.00 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1675.32 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MARCH 5/2024
*EURO GOLD: 1960.50 UP 11.50 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1960.50 EUROS PER OZ//MARCH 4.2024)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
A LITTLE HISTORY LESSON ON GOLD MANIPULATION AND THE FORMATION OF GATA:
I testified in the March 2010 hearing //we were also part of the BIS lawsuit filed in 2000.
GATA became incorporated in early 1999 to expose the manipulation and suppression of the gold/silver prices. We went all out do so, not only writing to the authorities, but going there and talking with them. We WENT THERE…*The following letter was sent to Chairman Saxton to prepare him for our meeting on April 27,1999:
The “bombshell” that GATA dropped at the CFTC Public Hearing on Precious Metals, March 25, 2010 was stunning. The video of Bill Murphy, Chairman of GATA, revealing a whistleblower source who has warned the CFTC Enforcement Division of market manipulation by JPMorganChase in advance of it happening and witnessed JPM traders bragging of their exploits can be viewed here (since obliterated).
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 31 190 H BMO CAPITAL 526 323 C HSBC 114 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 187 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 90 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12 661 C JP MORGAN 50 69 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 690 C ABN AMRO 12 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 58 905 C ADM 1
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 34 190 H BMO CAPITAL 293 323 C HSBC 640 248 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 149 365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 379 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5 661 C JP MORGAN 120 372 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 690 C ABN AMRO 7 737 C ADVANTAGE 35 905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 1,147 1,147 MONTH TO DATE: 1,147
ACCESS MARKET:
JPMorgan stopped 69/577 contracts.
FOR MARCH/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2024. CONTRACT: 577 NOTICES FOR 57700 OZ or 1 TONNES
total notices so far: 1770 contracts for 177,000 Oz (5.505 tonnes)
FOR MARCH:
SILVER NOTICES: 936 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4,680,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4170 for 20,850,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $16.55// the following makes lots of sense???
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.77 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILLION OZ FROM THE SL
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 429.483 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 143 CONTRACTS TO 143,353 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $0.80 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN MAJOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE HUGE PRICE RISE. WE HAD A HUGE 1267 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 1267 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.80),AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2007 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, IT OCCURRED WITH A MUCH HIGHER PRICE OF 80 CENTS PER OZ OF SILVER.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1864 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.270 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY,S 4.180 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS INCREASES TO : 23.385 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 23.385 MILLION OZ
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1267 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 622 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 3214 contracts: OR 16.070 MILLION OZ (1071 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 16.070 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 :66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 6.75 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 143CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1864 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH. OF 23.385 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 4,180 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING LOWERS TO 23.385 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2007 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1864 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS ( WITH PRICE OF SILVER RISING) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (1267) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 936 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 4,680,000 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,310 CONTRACTS TO 467,693 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 279 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 13,310 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR MEGA $30.55 GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH. AT 10.270 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’’S 1100 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW TOTAL Of INITIAL GOLD STANDING RISES TO: 7.502 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $30.55 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 22,970 OI CONTRACTS (72.446) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9660CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,693
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,970 CONTRACTS WITH 13,310 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 9660 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,970 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): HUGE SIZED 6168 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9660 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (13,310) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22,970 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 7.502 TONNES
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 6168CONTRACTS//HUGE SHORT COVERING AGAIN
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MARCH
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 23,008 CONTRACTS OR 2,300,800OZ OR 71.564 TONNES IN 3TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7669 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 71.564 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 71.564/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 71.564 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 143 CONTRACTS OI TO 143,975 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1864 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1864 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1864 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 143 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1864 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2007CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 10.035 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.49 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 433.33 PTS OR 2.61% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 11.60 PTS OR 0.03%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.10% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1992 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2123 /Oil DOWN TO 78.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.19/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,310 CONTRACTS TO 467,693 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $30.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING. MOST LIKELY IT WAS THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER WITH OUR SHORT PLAYERS EXITING AS FAST AS THEIR FEET COULD CARRY THEM. THE SHORTS HAVE BEEN KILLED SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THEM WOULD DARE INTO THIS ARENA ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL BANKERS BUYING PHYSICAL GOLD ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL TOTALS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 9660 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 9660 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9660CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 22,970 CONTRACTS IN THAT 9660 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,310 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $30.55 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 6168 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MARCH (7.5023 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 7.5023 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $30.55 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF22,970 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HIGHER PRICE. WE HAD TO HAVE HAD ANOTHER HUGE EPISODE OF STRONG SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 71,446 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MARCH. (10.3576 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 7.5023 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $30.55
WE HAD -REMOVED 279 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 22,970 CONTRACTS OR 2,297,000 OZ OR 71.446 TONNES. estimated volume today 277,477 fair to good
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1770 notices 177,000 oz 5.505 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Malca: 11,574.360 oz
total withdrawal: 11,574.360 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total deposit nil
Adjustments:2 dealer to customer;
i)JPMorgan 11,574.360 oz
ii) Manfra 675.171 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1219 contracts having GAINED 63 contracts. We had 8 contracts filed upon on Monday, so we gained 71 contracts or an additional 7100 oz of gold(22.08 tonnes) will stand at the comex in this non active delivery month of March
APRIL LOST 3186 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 333,666.
MAY EARNED 49 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 84
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 15,180 CONTRACTS UP TO 82,818 CONTRACTS.
We had 577 contracts filed for today representing 57,700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 50 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 577 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 69 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1770 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (1219 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 577 x 100 oz per contract equals 234,200 OZ OR 7.2846 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH. contract month: No of notices filed so far (1770) x 100 oz + (1219) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (577) x 100 oz which equals 241,200 oz (7.5023 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH: 7.5023 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4170 x 5,000 oz = 20,858,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (1443) and the number of notices served upon today 936 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH/2024 contract month: 4170 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH. (1443) – number of notices served upon today (936 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MARCH contract month equates to 23.385 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 23.385 million oz.
There are 51.963 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MARCH 5 WITH GOLD UP $16.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 4 WITH GOLD UP $30.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.77 TONNES
MARCH 1 WITH GOLD UP $40.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB29/WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB27/WITH GOLD UP $4.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB23/WITH GOLD UP $17 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB22/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.82 TONNES
FEB21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 29.82 TONNES
FEB20/WITH GOLD UP $16.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.89 TONNES
FEB16/WITH GOLD UP $8,60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.31 TONNES
FEB15/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 821.47 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILION OZ OF SILLVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /NVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 429.483 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: Bitcoin Lives And Dies By ETFs
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 06:30 AM
Via SchiffGold.com,
On this year’s Leap Day, Peter analyzed another round of inflation data and the economic factors at play in the quickly approaching 2024 general election. Bitcoin also surged back above $60,000 after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs. Inflation came in worse than expected for personal consumption, and gold finished the week at nearly $2090/oz.
Peter thinks Bitcoin’s revival this week is the last gasp of breath before the asset blows up completely:
“These ETFs are really the tail that is wagging the Bitcoin dog. I think it’s all now about the ETFs, and of course, Bitcoin lives by the ETFs, it’s going to die by the ETFs and [it’s] probably not going to be a very long life.”
Investors eagerly buying into these ETFs may have a tough time moving back into gold if the yellow metal continues to climb in price:
“It’s going to be like a…roach motel. The money checks in. It doesn’t check out. It goes to money heaven because it’s one thing to put money into a Bitcoin ETF. It’s going to be a whole other thing to get it back out.”
With new home sales and durable goods orders declining faster than expected, Peter explains the bizarre state of the housing market:
“[Housing] prices are still up, even though the interest rates are up. It’s an unprecedented situation that makes housing extremely unaffordable and means that more people are stuck renting, no matter how high the rent goes.”
All of these factors weigh on voters’ minds at the ballot box, and so far, Biden has received most of the blame:
“This also confirms what I’m saying, and what the voters are saying: the economy is lousy. The reason that Biden is not getting credit is because he’s getting the blame. …Whether it’s Biden’s fault or not, the voters know the economy is lousy. They can’t afford to eat, and they’re working two or three jobs. And they’re blaming Biden, and they’re hoping that maybe things will be different under Trump.”
“Donald Trump is a better bet to win than Biden. So the markets say that Trump has a better chance of becoming the next president than Biden. But the betting markets also say that it’s more likely that a Democrat wins the White House than a Republican. So what are the markets betting? The markets are actually betting that Biden doesn’t run and that somebody else takes his place. Because the only way Trump is going to lose is if he’s not running against Biden.”
The only promising figures released this week were on personal income and spending, although Peter argues they’re hardly worth celebrating:
“Now normally, hey, that’s good news, right? People are earning more money. But they didn’t really earn more money. They received more money from government transfers. The big source of that 1 percent gain was government transfer payments. Mainly social security. … So some people on social security got a bigger check.”
Because this income was created by the government, it’ll likely make inflation worse:
“I don’t think that people on social security are going to save that money for long. They’re going to spend it. It’s just taking them a little longer to get to the store. So this is not good news. … This new spending power came into existence, not through effort and work, which would be productive and help to increase the supply of goods. It’s just people collecting money that the government created out of thin air. So it’s inflation.”
With gold stocks down this week and gold holding steady above $2000, now is a great time to buy the dip in gold stocks before the economy gets even worse:
“So we’ve got weak economic data, strong inflation data. We’ve got a bubble in the stock market. We’ve got a bubble in crypto. We’ve got a great opportunity to fade that trade, to bet against that bubble. All bubbles ultimately pop. It’s just a question of when and what’s the pin.”
The coming months will be crucial for the economy. As inflation continues to hang on and important indicators keep falling, precious metals stand out as a great defense against a weakening dollar and asset bubbles in the broader economy.
end
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/ SIMON WHITE..//ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
Ted Butler: The CFTC’s (non)response
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-03-04 19:45 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ted Butler SilverSeek.com Monday, March 4, 2024
The long-awaited response from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to my congressman’s office about my concerns about the possible double-counting of publicly reported silver inventories, originally sent to the agency in mid-November, was received by me Friday morning, March 1.
To refresh you with the issue, I asked the CFTC (along with the Securities and Exchange Commission) to make clear whether the 103 million ounces reported in the I-Shares Silver Trust (SLV) and being held in New York by JPMorgan on behalf of the trust were also being reported in the JPMorgan Comex warehouse or whether these were two separate silver inventories. …
The long-awaited response from the CFTC to my congressman’s office about my concerns of the possible double-counting of publicly reported silver inventories, originally sent to the agency in mid-November was received by me Friday morning, March 1. To refresh you with the issue, I asked the CFTC (along with the S.E.C.) to make clear whether the 103 million oz reported in the I-Shares Silver Trust, SLV, and being held in New York by JPMorgan on behalf of the trust, was also being reported in the JPMorgan COMEX warehouse or whether these were two separate silver inventories. Here’s an article I made public at the time, which included my original letter, as well as some commentary.
The S.E.C. responded within two weeks, but avoided answering whether the silver inventories in question were being double-counted. The CFTC has taken more than three and half months to respond and also has avoided answering what was a very simple question on my part, after telling my congressman’s office on several occasions that it was “working on” a response. As is my custom, here is the agency’s response in its entirety for you to review, before I share my thoughts.
The CFTC’s response included a literal word-salad of unrelated information describing the functioning of the agency not all related to my question and designed to put as many words in the response to make it sound like much deep thought went into the response. It did declare that the agency had no direct control of the reporting of silver inventories, but in declaring that, avoided its responsibility to deal with the dissemination of false market data that could mislead market participants. There have been numerous actions taken by the agency in the past related to false data and price signals being disseminated in other markets, so the implication that the sending of false price signals related to the misreporting of recorded silver inventories is disingenuous, at best.
Besides, I am sick and tired of those (particularly bureaucrats) who’s standard knee-jerk response to any question is an automatic “it’s not my job”. WTF? If it is not the federal commodities regulator’s job to answer a direct and simple question about the potential sending of information creating false price signals – then who the heck’s job is it?
Let’s face it, if the silver inventories in question are being double-counted, as now appears obvious as a result of this response, that amounts to the sending of false price signals, period. There is not the slightest hint in the daily publishing of these two silver inventories, one covering the holdings in SLV and under the control of BlackRock, and the other reported by the CME Group, that the two inventories may be one and the same and, in effect, are being double-counted to the vast majority of market observers (including by me in my weekly reviews). Seeking clarity on the matter was why I asked the CFTC in the first place and now its response virtually guarantees the two inventories are double-counted.
Then there is the tantalizing boiler plate language (apparently added as an afterthought, as evidenced by the different type or font settings on each page) which promises that if this were to amount to the sending of false price signals, then the agency is more than capable to deal with it – except, of course, it can’t disclose that. Having heard this line from the CFTC in the past, you’ll forgive me if I don’t take the agency at its word. What I do know is this – the CFTC took the better part of three and a half months to offer a non-response, all the while that the silver price suppression remained firmly in place. It’s hard not to conclude that the agency is up to its eyeballs in prolonging a manipulation that has existed for 40 years.
A number of weeks back, I did raise the ugly possibility that the CFTC was delaying its response to my question, in order to give the crooked and collusive COMEX commercials the time to arrange their affairs as best as possible before it would respond. Considering the week’s results in the silver and gold COT reports, as well as the uneventful passage of the key first delivery days this week, I’d be lying if I said those ugly thoughts of mine had departed.
What to do? Unfortunately, I can’t act in the CFTC’s place, because if I could, then this silver price manipulation would have ended long ago. So that leaves me with trying to work around the agency. Specifically, I have continued to complain to the Department of Justice, as recently as again on Friday. My allegations not only involve the sending of false price signals (now confirmed) by JPMorgan for silver inventories under its direct control (and in direct violation of JPM’s recently-expired deferred criminal prosecution agreement), but also my more recent allegation against JPM for the uneconomic and manipulative dumping of physical silver via SLV. I can’t decide which is worse – the continued sending of false price signals by JPMorgan or its dumping of physical silver.
I do know that both are clearly against commodity law and must come to an immediate halt. As things turned out, I believe the CFTC may have done us all a big favor (quite unintentionally) in its long-delay in responding to the inventory double-counting question, by elevating the matter to a higher level than if it had responded much sooner. This extreme delay allowed me to peruse the data in the interim in SLV, which uncovered my allegation of dumping. I guess what I’m saying is that this response from the CFTC clearly confirms my allegation of double-counting, and thereby elevates my additional complaint about dumping. I’d ask the CFTC about the dumping of physical silver by JPM in the SLV, but Lord knows how long it would take for it to offer a non-response, so I’ll stick to the Justice Department on this matter.
Further, I can’t help but believe that the fairest and most effective manner of dealing with JPMorgan’s continued serious violations in the silver and gold markets is to simply disallow this crooked bank from dealing in these markets. In no uncertain terms, the world would be a better place if JPMorgan and silver and gold were mutually exclusive.
All Empires die without fail, so do all Fiat currencies. But gold has been shining for 5000 years and as I explain in this article, Gold is likely to outshine virtually all assets in the next 5-10 years.
In early 2002 we made major investments in physical gold for our investors and ourselves. At the time gold was around $300. Our primary objective was wealth preservation. The Nasdaq had already crashed 67% but before the bottom was reached, it lost another 50%. The total loss was 80% with many companies going bankrupt.
In 2006, just over 4 years later, the Great Financial Crisis started. In 2008, the financial system was minutes from imploding. Banks like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and many others were bankrupt – BANCA ROTTA – (see my article First Gradually then Suddenly, The Everything Collapse)
Virtually unlimited money printing postponed the collapse and since 2008 US total debt has almost doubled to $100 trillion.
Gold backing of a currency doesn’t always solve a debt problem but it certainly makes it more difficult for the government to cook the books which they do without fail.
BONFIRE OF THE US BUDGET BOOKS
So tricky Dick (Nixon) couldn’t make ends meet in the late 1960s – early 70s partly due to the Vietnam war.
Thus in 1971 Nixon, by closing the Gold window, started the most spectacular bonfire of the US government budget books. How wonderful, no more accountability, no more shackles and no more gold deliveries to de Gaulle in France who was clever to ask for gold instead of dollars in debt settlement from the US.
So from August 1971, the US embarked on a money printing and credit expansion bonanza never seen before in history.
Total US debt went from $2 trillion in 1971 to $200 trillion today – up 100X!
Since most major currencies were linked to the dollar under the Bretton Woods system, the closing of the gold window started a global free for all with the printing press (including bank credit) replacing REAL MONEY i.e. GOLD.
The consequences of this “temporary” move by Nixon is that all Fiat or paper money has declined by 97-99% since 1971.
The price of assets have obviously inflated correspondingly. In 1971 total US financial assets were $2 trillion. Today they are $130 trillion, up 65X.
And if we include off balance sheet assets including the shadow banking system and derivatives, we are looking at assets (which will become liabilities) in excess of $2 quadrillion.
Luke Gromen in his Tree Rings report puts forward two options for the world economy which can be summarised as follows:
1. Dedollarisation continues, the Petrodollar dies and gold gradually replaces the dollar as a global commodity trading currency especially in the commodity rich BRICS countries. This would allow commodity prices to stay low as gold rises and drives a virtuous circle of global trade.
If the above option sounds too good to be true especially bearing in mind the bankrupt status of the global financial system, Luke puts forward a much less pleasant outcome.
And in my view, Luke’s alternative outcome is sadly more likely, namely:
2. “China, the US Treasury market, and the global economy implode spectacularly, sending the world into a new Great Depression, political instability, and possibly WW3…in which case, gold probably rises spectacularly all the same, as bonds and then equities scramble for one of the only assets with no counterparty risk – gold. (BTC is another.)”
Yes, Bitcoin couldgo to $1 million as I have often said but it could also go to Zero if it is banned. Too binary for me and not a good wealth preservation risk in any case.
As Gromen says, there is a virtuous case and there is a vicious case for the world economy.
But above both cases shines GOLD!
So why hold the worthless paper money or bubble assets when you can protect yourself with Gold!
FOR THE CBO BAD TIMES DON’T EXIST
The US Central Budget Office – CBO – has recently made a 10 year forecast.
Obviously, the CBO assumes no depression or even a little recession in the next 10 years!
Isn’t it wonderful to be a government employee and have a mandate to only forecast GOOD NEWS!
And although the CBO forecasts a debt increase of $21 trillion by 2034 to a total of $55 trillion, they expect inflation to stay around 2%!
As I have stated in many articles, the US Federal debt has doubled every 8 years on average since Reagan became President in 1981!
I see no reason to deviate from that long term trend although there can be short term deviations. So based on that simple but historically accurate extrapolation, I could forecast the increase from $10 trillion to $20 trillion debt in 2009 when Obama took over from Bush Jr.
Extrapolating this trend, the US Federal Debt will reach $100 trillion in 2036.
With debts and deficits increasing exponentially, it is not unlikely that as inflation catches fire again, $100 trillion Federal Debt will be reached earlier than 2036.
Just think about a big number of bank failures, which is guaranteed, plus major defaults in the $2+ quadrillion derivative market. Against such dire background, it would be surprising if US debt doesn’t go far beyond $100 trillion by the mid 2030s!
STOCK MARKET BUBBLE & LEADERSHIP SWAPS
Investors and many analysts are still bullish about the stock market. As we know, markets will move higher until all investors, especially retail, are sucked in and until most of the shorts have liquidated their positions.
It has been a remarkable bull market based on unlimited debt creation. Nobody worries about the fact that 7 stocks are creating this mania. These stocks are well known to most investors: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
These Magnificent 7 have a total market cap of $13 trillion. That is the same as the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, India and the UK! Only the US and China are bigger.
When 7 companies are greater than 4 of the biggest industrial economies in the world, it is time to fire the management of these countries and maybe do a swap.
GATES, COOKE, MUSK TAKING OVER GERMANY, UK & FRANCE
What about Germany’s Chancellor Scholz running Amazon. Or Rishi Sunak in the UK being in charge of Microsoft? How long would it take them to destroy these companies? Not many years in my view. They would quickly double the benefits for workers and increase debts to unsustainable levels.
But Germany and the UK would most certainly benefit from Bill Gates of Microsoft taking on Germany and Tim Cooke of Apple running the UK. They would of course need dictatorial powers in order to take the draconian measures required. Only then could they slash inefficiencies, halve benefits and reduce taxes by at least 50%.
If the entrepreneurs just got a very small percentage of the improvement in the countries’ finances as remuneration, they would make much more money than they are currently.
Even more fascinating would be to see Elon Musk as French President. He would fire at least 80% of state employees and by doing that he might even get the militant French unions on his side and get the country back on its feet.
An interesting thought experiment that of course will never happen.
WHY IS EVERYONE WAITING FOR NEW GOLD HIGHS IN ORDER TO BUY???
For almost 25 years I have been standing on a soapbox to inform investors of the importance of wealth preservation.
Still only just over 0.5% of global financial assets have been invested in gold. In 1960 it was 5% in gold and in 1980 when gold peaked at $850, it was 2.7%.
For a quarter of a century, gold has gone up 7- 8X in most Western currencies and exponentially more in weak currencies like the Argentine Pesos or Venezuelan Bolivar.
In spite of gold outperforming most asset classes in this century, it remains at less than 1% of Global Financial Assets – GFA. Currently at $2,100 gold is at 0.6% of GFA.
WE HAVE LIFTOFF!
So gold has now broken out and very few investors are participating.
This stealth move that gold has made has left virtually every investor behind as this table shows:
The clever buyers are of course the BRICS central banks. Almost all of their purchases are off market so in the short term it has only a marginal effect on the gold price.
But now the squeeze has started as my good friend Alasdair Macleod explains so well on King World News. The Comex was never meant for physical deliveries but only for cash settlements. But now buyers are standing for physical delivery. We have also seen last month major exports of gold from the US to Switzerland. These are either Comex 400 ounce bars or US government bars sold/leased and sent to the Swiss refiners and broken down to 1 kg bars for onwards export to the BRICS. These bars will never return again even if they are only leased and not sold.
The above process will one day bring panic to the gold market as there will be nowhere near enough physical gold for all the paper claims.
So for any gold investors who don’t hold physical gold in a safe jurisdiction (NOT USA), I suggest that they quickly move their gold to a private vault where they have personal access, preferably in Switzerland or Singapore.
So NO FRACTIONAL GOLD OWNERSHIP, NO GOLD ETFs or FUNDS and NO GOLD IN BANKS!
At least not if you want to be sure to get hold of your gold as the gold squeeze starts.
GOLD IS ON THE CUSP OF A MAJOR MOVE
Having just broken out, gold is now on its way to much, much higher levels.
As I keep on saying, forecasting the gold price is a mug’s game.
What is the purpose of predicting a price level when the unit you measure gold in (USD, EUR, GBP etc) is continually debasing and worth less every month.
All investors need to know is that every single currency in history has without fail gone to ZERO as Voltaire said already in 1727.
Since the early 1700s, over 500 currencies have become extinct, most of them due to hyperinflation.
Only since 1971 all major currencies have lost 97-99% of their purchasing power measured in gold. In the next 5-10 years they will lose the remaining 1-3% which of course is 100% from here.
But gold will not only continue to maintain purchasing power, it will do substantially better. This is due to the coming collapse of all bubble assets – Stocks, Bonds, Property etc. The world will not be able to avoid the Everything Collapse or First Gradually then Suddenly – The Everything Collapse as I wrote about in two articles in 2023.
YES, GOLD IS ON THE CUSP OF A MAJOR MOVE AS:
Wars continue to ravage the world.
Inflation rises strongly due to ever increasing debts and deficits.
Currency continues their journey to ZERO.
The world flees from stocks, bonds, and the US dollar.
The BRICS countries continue to buy ever bigger amounts of gold.
Central Banks buy major amounts of gold as currency reserves instead of US dollars.
Investors rush into gold at any price to preserve their wealth.
GOLD AS CHEAP AS IN 1971 OR 2000
The chart below indicates that gold in early 2020 at $1700 was as cheap as in 1971at $35 and in 2000 at $1700 in relation to money supply.
At this point we do not have an updated chart but it is our estimate that the monetary base has probably kept pace with the gold price meaning that the level in 2024 is similar to 2020.
So let me repeat my mantra:
Please jump on the Gold Wagon while there is still time to preserve your wealth.
The coming surge in gold demand cannot be met by more gold because more than the current 3000 tonnes of gold per annum cannot be mined.
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /URANIUM
The Nuclear Boom Is Here: Uranium Projects Jump Back On Line As Price Soars
MONDAY, MAR 04, 2024 – 08:00 PM
It’s been a long time coming, but the bulls are finally back in uranium. And with them comes the restart of multiple uranium projects that have been taken offline in the years while the commodity slouched in price.
We have long stated here on Zero Hedge that nuclear power is an obvious win/win: it’s clean, it’s safe, it provides robust power and, most importantly to our liberal friends, it has minimal emissions. So why isn’t it more prominent?
In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, uranium mining in the United States, particularly in Wyoming, Texas, Arizona, and Utah, experienced a significant downturn.
This decline wasn’t helped by uranium prices plummeting and nations such as Germany and Japan moving away from nuclear energy. However, as global efforts to reduce emissions renew interest in nuclear power, and as leading uranium producers face challenges in meeting demand, prices for the metal have risen sharply, a new Bloomberg report says.
This resurgence in prices is offering previously unprofitable American uranium mines an opportunity to re-enter the market and address the supply shortfall.
According to the report, as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada’s annual meeting takes place in Toronto, attracting thousands from the mining industry, uranium will be a key focus.
With participants including major uranium firms like Denison Mines Corp., Fission Uranium Corp., and IsoEnergy Ltd., the event highlights the growing importance of uranium in the context of climate change and nuclear power.
The International Atomic Energy Agency predicts a significant rise in uranium demand, foreseeing a need for over 100,000 metric tons annually by 2040, necessitating a near doubling of current mining and processing efforts.
Scott Melbye, executive vice president of Texas-based Uranium Energy Corp. said: “We’re in an old-fashioned, plain-and-simple supply squeeze. Demand is increasing again, with new reactors coming online.”
John Ciampagli, Chief Executive Officer of Sprott Asset Management added: “The industry is clearly trying to respond with smaller mines reopening, but when you have a mine that hasn’t operated for that long, it’s obviously not very substantive.”
Cameco has resumed operations at MacArthur River and Key Lake, the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine and mill in Saskatchewan, Canada, after halting from 2018 to 2021 due to poor market conditions.
The reopening of U.S. mines signifies a comeback for an industry that nearly vanished five years ago, with production plummeting to 174,000 pounds in 2019 from a peak of 44 million pounds in 1980. This decline was accompanied by increased reliance on uranium imports from nations such as Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
Amid geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine affecting uranium shipments from Kazakhstan, the U.S. is motivated by both supply security and political reasons to boost its uranium production. The Uranium Producers of America suggests the U.S. will need to open 8 to 10 major new mines within the next decade to meet demand.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1992
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2123
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8,49 PPTS OR 0.28%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 433.33 PTS OR 2.61%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 11.60 PTS OR 0.03%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.86 EURO FALLS TO 1.0848 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.702 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.41/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3655***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.737* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.211…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.302
3j Gold at $2123.50 silver at: 23.92 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 45 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.79//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.41// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.702% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8864 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9614 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.188 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.327 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.581 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.65…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.092
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Fall As Apple China Sales Tumble, China Congress Forecast Disappoints
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 08:18 AM
And just like that the momentum-driven buying frenzy is over: S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slide 0.6%, jeopardizing the ridiculous stock market rally which is up 16 of the pat 18 weeks, as Apple shares tumbled more than 2% in premarket trading after reporting 24% drop in iPhone sales in China over first six weeks of year. Large-cap technology companies were also pressured by the selling in Apple, while sentiment was also dented by the lukewarm response to China’s new growth target which for the 2nd year in a row was “around 5%”; finally the mood turned more dour after hawkish comments on Monday by Atlanta Fed president Bostic who said he sees a Q3 cut and then a pause and then one more for the year. Bond yields are down 2bps across the curve, taking the 10Y to 4.18% while the USD is flat and bitcoin continues to trade just shy of its all time high of $68,888.99. Commodities are mixed with Ags/Energy lower and metals higher, while gold is also making a new ATH. Today’s macro data focus will be on ISM-Srvcs and Durable/Cap Goods, plus we get some Consumer-sector earnings including Target.
In premarket trading, Apple fell more than 2%, set to extend losses for a fifth consecutive session as Counterpoint Research says iPhone sales in China declined by 24% over the first six weeks of this year. The divergence between AAPL and the Nasdaq is getting rather glaring.
Also in premarket trading, AMD slipped more than 2.5%, after Bloomberg reported it has hit a US government roadblock in its plan to sell an artificial intelligence chip tailored for China. Tesla fell 2.2%, set to extend losses after dropping 7.2% on Monday following disappointing China vehicle shipment figures. Additionally, Tesla halted production at its factory near Berlin and sent workers home after a fire – which appears to have been the result of industrial sabotage – at a high-voltage pylon caused power failures throughout the region. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
AeroVironment (AVAV US) rose 19% after the defense contractor reported adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate.
Gitlab (GTLB US) shares sink 24% after the application software company gave a full-year forecast that is weaker than expected. Analysts noted that the tepid outlook overshadowed otherwise strong 4Q results.
MicroStrategy (MSTR US) leads cryptocurrency-linked stocks lower in premarket trading on Tuesday as Bitcoin’s blinding rally takes a breather. The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin also proposed to sell $600 million in convertible senior notes to buy more of the largest cryptocurrency.
Paymentus (PAY US) shares climbed 16% after the provider of cloud-based bill payment technology issued stronger-than-expected adjusted Ebitda forecasts for the current quarter and full year. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted Ebitda also topped the average analyst estimates.
Stitch Fix (SFIX US) shares slumped 14% after the online personal styling service cut its full-year net revenue from continued operations guidance, which missed analyst estimates. Additionally, the company reported a heavier-than-expected loss per share from continuing operations for the second quarter.
Investors are also jittery ahead of Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday. That will be followed on Friday by monthly payrolls data. Powell is expected to double down on the message that the Fed will be patient in cutting rates. That’s especially so after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday he expects the first cut — which he has penciled in for the third quarter — to be followed by a pause. A string of strong economic data has already forced markets to push back the first rate cut to at least mid-year and trim the number of reductions this year to three.
“If Bostic wants one cut then a pause, you can’t help but wonder if the Fed is wavering on three cuts,” said Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux. “The data is doing the talking and it’s really not screaming for the Fed to cut rates. We have taken out three Fed cuts in the past two months, so now the question is: do we need to take out more?”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2%, with automotive and mining shares the hardest hit as China’s latest market-support measures, announced Tuesday, failed to reassure investors. Among individual stocks, defense firm Thales SA jumped after forecast-beating results and Spirent Communications Plc soared after Viavi Solutions Inc. agreed to buy the electronic solutions provider.
Earlier in the session, Chinese equities were mixed and yuan little changed after China’s National People’s Congress delivered a slew of announcements on growth and inflation targets, as well as steps to shore up the economy and fiscal goals for 2024 which were very much as expected if somewhat on the disappointing side. The CSI 300 index close 0.7% and Shanghai Composite also eked out modest small gain, while Hong Kong tech shares pull Hang Seng 2.2% lower. Japanese equities grind higher; South Korean stocks were modestly weaker
“Overall, I would say it probably disappoints more based on announcements thus far,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director at abrdn. “Investors still will like more forceful fiscal measures to boost the economy.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat while the Aussie is the worst performer among the G-10’s, falling 0.3% versus the greenback. The yen modestly advanced after Tokyo price growth rising above the Bank of Japan’s target in February
In rates, treasury yields slipped after rising across the curve on Monday, when buyers shied away from US three-and six-month bill auctions amid uncertainty over Powell. Treasuries are richer by 2bp-3bp across the curve with 10-year around 4.185%, trailing gilts, which lead gains in European rates, by around 3.5bp in the sector. Curve spreads little changed. Core European rates likewise better on the day after French industrial production data were weaker than expected. IG credit issuance slate includes Israel multi-tranche $benchmark, continuing the YTD corporate borrowing binge. IG dollar issuance slate also includes EIB $4b 3Y and EBRD $1b 10Y; 14 issuers priced $21.5b across 29 tranches Monday, taking YTD volume past $400 billion. At least 1-2 borrowers stood down and intend to look again Tuesday
In commodities, oil prices are little changed, with WTI trading near $78.70. Spot gold rises 0.5%
Bitcoin takes a breather and holds just beneath its record high of $69k, while Ethereum (+3.6%) continues to advance higher.
Looking at the US economic calendar, data today includes February S&P Global services PMI (9:45am), January factory orders and February ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Barr at 12pm and 2:15pm. Today’s earnings releases include Target. And in US politics, it’s Super Tuesday, with lots of primaries taking place for both Republicans and Democrats
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 5,124.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 496.40
MXAP down 0.4% to 173.99
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 525.75
Nikkei little changed at 40,097.63
Topix up 0.5% to 2,719.93
Hang Seng Index down 2.6% to 16,162.64
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,047.79
Sensex down 0.2% to 73,750.62
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,724.20
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,649.40
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.37%
Brent Futures little changed at $82.81/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,124.82
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.85
Euro little changed at $1.0855
Top Overnight News
China’s 2024 economic objectives/targets were largely inline with expectations (no new incremental stimulus measures), including growth of “around 5%” and a fiscal deficit of ~3% (the country will issue CNY1T in special ultralong gov’t bonds, which aren’t counted in the deficit). WSJ
China drops “peaceful reunification” language with regards to Taiwan as it pledges to boost defense spending by 7.2% this year. RTRS
Apple Inc.’s iPhone sales in China fell by a surprising 24% over the first six weeks of this year, according to independent research that may stoke fears about worsening demand for the marquee but aging device. BBG
Japan’s Tokyo CPI came in at +2.6% Y/Y on the headline (up from +1.8% in Jan, and firmer than the consensus forecast of +2.5%) while core (ex-food/energy) cooled to +3.1% (down from +3.3% in Jan and inline with the Street). BBG
Gaza ceasefire talks end in Cairo without a breakthrough as pressure builds for a deal before the start of Ramadan on 3/10. RTRS
Hawkish policymakers at the European Central Bank have been emboldened to resist calls for an imminent cut to interest rates at their meeting this week after inflation proved stickier than expected in February. FT
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing assets rise at a record pace – total inflows have been nearly $50B since the approvals arrived on Jan 11 (BlackRock’s product became the fastest new ETF in history to hit $10B). WSJ
TGT +6% pre market after reporting strong FQ4/Jan EPS upside, w/a ~60% Y/Y spike to 2.98 (vs. the Street’s 2.40 forecast). The EPS beat was driven primarily by margins while comps were inline (comps fell 4.4% vs. the Street -4.5%, with brick-and-mortar down 5.4% and digital down 0.7%). RTRS
AMD fell after its plan to sell an AI chip tailored for the Chinese market hit a roadblock. US officials found the low-performance chip was still too powerful and AMD must obtain a license to sell it, people familiar said. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed as the region digested China’s Work Report and Caixin Services PMI data. ASX 200 closed slightly lower as strength in mining and health care was offset by losses in the consumer sectors. Nikkei 225 initially retreated beneath the 40,000 level after the latest Tokyo CPI data showed an acceleration in price growth, but then gradually recovered its losses and returned to positive territory. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with notable underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark amid weakness in tech and health care, while the miss on Chinese Caixin Services PMI also provides a headwind for risk appetite. Conversely, the mainland just about remained afloat after the announcement of the government Work Report with the GDP growth target maintained at around 5%, as expected, although Premier Li noted the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not solid yet and domestic demand is not strong.
Top Asian News
China unveiled the government work report with the 2024 GDP growth target set at around 5%, as expected, but noted achieving this year’s economic growth target will not be easy, while it will continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, as well as noted that China should intensify cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments through macro policies. China will launch a year-long program to stimulate consumption and roll out a “worry-free consumption” initiative to improve the consumption environment and will make concerted efforts to defuse local government debt risks. Furthermore, China will take tough measures against illegal financial activities and will move faster to foster a new development model for real estate.
Chinese Premier Li said the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not solid yet and China’s domestic demand is not strong with social expectations relatively weak. Li also commented that some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing operational difficulties but added that China will stabilise and expand private investment.
China’s state planner said it will lift all foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector and it will relax market access restrictions in service industries such as telecoms and medical services, according to Reuters.
Japan Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy Shindo said they are not thinking now of declaring anything when asked whether the government could call an end to deflation, while Finance Minister Suzuki also said there was no truth to the media report that government is considering announcing the end of deflation.
Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda must brace for higher interest rates environment given assumed interest rates raised to 1.9% from 1.1%; must strive for responsible fiscal management by achieving primary budget balancing in FY25/26.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) began the session mostly in modest negative territory, and EZ Composite/Services PMIs (which were revised higher) did little to sway the indices. European sectors hold a strong negative tilt, with the typical Defensive sectors (Utilities/Healthcare) able to remain afloat. Autos is found at the foot of the pile, with sentiment hampered following poor Tesla Chinese shipments data yesterday, with a factory fire at the Co’s German plant also not helping. US Equity Futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.7%, RTY -0.4%) are entirely in the red, taking impetus from a downbeat sentiment in Europe. The NQ underperforms, hampered by losses in Tesla (-1.9%), after news that its plant in Germany was powerless, following a fire caused by “eco-activists”. Elsewhere, Apple (-1.5%) continues to sink lower, on reports that iPhone sales in China plunged.
Top European News
Barclays said UK consumer spending in February rose 1.9% Y/Y and was dampened by wet weather, while it noted that consumer confidence about non-essential spending was the highest since November 2021, according to Reuters.
ECB insider expects inflation forecasts to be cut this year and maybe next year, according to Econostream Media.
UK Chancellor Hunt will cut national insurance by 2pp in the Spring Budget on Wednesday, according to Times’ Swinford.
FX
Uneventful trade for the dollar with DXY consolidating on a 103 handle and respecting yesterday’s 103.72-96 range. Downside sees the 200DMA at 103.73. Upside focus is on reclaiming 104.
EUR is steady vs. the USD and contained within a tight 1.0842-58 range and yesterday’s 1.0837-67 parameters. Final PMIs had little sway on the EUR with attention turning to Thursday’s ECB announcement.
Contained trade for Cable with a range of 1.2672-94 which sits within yesterday’s 1.2650-1.2707 bounds. PMIs had little sway on the pound with traders more mindful of tomorrow’s budget and potential forthcoming tax cuts, latest via the Times seemingly cements a National Insurance cut.
JPY a touch firmer vs. the USD following hot Tokyo inflation metrics overnight, which were followed up by comms from Japanese officials that markets must brace for higher rates. That being said, still remains above 150.50 and close to 150.88 YTD peak.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with potential disappointment out of China weighing on sentiment. AUD/USD has lost 0.65 status and gone as low as 0.6478. If downside extends, YTD trough at 0.6442 could come into view.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1027 vs exp. 7.1961 (prev. 7.1020).
Fixed Income
Bunds began the session on the front foot, extending to a 133.28 peak before stalling and as such remained shy of 133.30 & 133.37 from 21st & 23rd February. Thereafter, EZ Final PMIs spurred a gradual hawkish move across the regional and pan-EZ figures, a move which was sufficient to bring Bunds back to the 133.00 mark, though still remain firmer on the day.
USTs are in-fitting with European peers and pulled back alongside EZ PMIs. Holds towards the upper end of a 110-23-111-00 range. A high point which resides just a tick shy of Monday’s best.
Gilts initially moved in tandem with EGBs, awaiting its own PMI release, which saw a modest revision lower and as such lifted Gilts by a handful of ticks to just above 98.50 but shy of the earlier 98.61 peak.
Germany sells EUR 3.316bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.10% 2029 Bobl: b/c 2.50x (prev. 2.30x), average yield 2.40% (prev. 2.30%), and retention 17.10% (prev. 17.68%)
Commodities
Crude futures are choppy after seeing little notable fallout from the China Two-Session and as geopolitical updates remain sparse, though crude prices clambered off lows as EZ PMIs saw upward revisions. Currently crude holds below USD 83/bbl.
Precious metals see modest gains despite a flat Dollar and relatively light macro and geopolitical newsflow this morning, with prices seemingly continuing the momentum from yesterday; XAU rose above yesterday’s peak (2,119.97/oz) as it continues to hone in on the 2023 peak near USD 2,148/oz.
A mixed session for base metals after some APAC weakness following the underwhelming China Two-Sessions which provided little in the way of policy details, particularly for the Real Estate sector; 3M LME copper briefly dipped under USD 8,500/t before finding support, currently printing a USD 8,496.00-8,541.50/t range.
Alberta oil production fell by 380k BPD M/M to 3.81mbpd in January amid to cold weather, according to the Alberta energy regulator
Geopolitics: Middle East
Hamas said in a message they will be flexible on the issue of the number of prisoners if Israel is flexible on the issue of returning Palestinians to northern Gaza, according to Axios’ Ravid on X.
US Central Command said Yemen’s Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea on March 4th although there were no reported damages or injuries to commercial or US Navy ships. Houthis also fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC Sky II which is a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel, while one of the missiles impacted the vessel and caused damage but initial reports indicated no injuries. Furthermore, CENTCOM said its forces conducted strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an ‘imminent threat’ to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.
Gaza ceasefire talks between Hamas and mediators broke up on Tuesday in Egypt with no breakthrough as the Ramadan deadline looms, according to Reuters
Geopolitics: Other
China’s coastguard took control measures against Philippine vessels that ‘illegally’ intruded into waters adjacent to the Second Thomas Shoal, according to state media. Philippines coastguard spokesperson said vessels faced dangerous manoeuvres and blocking from China’s coastguard and maritime militia during a resupply mission, while the reckless and illegal actions led to a collision between the Philippines and Chinese coastguard vessels in which the Philippine vessel sustained minor structural damage.
North Korea’s Defence Ministry said South Korean-US military drills are not defensive and should stop, while it added that South Korea and the US will face consequences for their wrong choice, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.4, prior 51.3
Feb. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 51.4, prior 51.4
10:00: Jan. Durable Goods Orders, est. -6.1%, prior -6.1%
Jan. Durables-Less Transportation, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
Jan. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
Jan. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%
10:00: Jan. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. -0.1%, prior 0.4%
Jan. Factory Orders, est. -3.0%, prior 0.2%
10:00: Feb. ISM Services Index, est. 53.0, prior 53.4
Feb. ISM Services New Orders, prior 55.0
Feb. ISM Services Employment, prior 50.5
Feb. ISM Services Prices Paid, est. 62.0, prior 64.0
Central Bank Speakers
12:00: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Panel about CRA Modernization
14:15: Fed’s Barr Participates in Roundtable Listening Session
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After posting 16 weekly gains out of 18 for the first time since 1971, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (-0.12%) get the week off to a subdued start as we await several key events later this week, including appearances from Chair Powell, the US jobs report, and the ECB decision.
One of the clearest moves yesterday was the selloff among US Treasuries, which took place across the curve and reversed the bulk of Friday’s rally. That saw the 10yr yield rise +3.2bps to 4.21%, whilst the 2yr yield was up +7.2bps to 4.60%. Bear in mind that today also marks exactly 20 months ago since the 2s10s curve closed back in inversion territory (after a brief period as the Fed started hiking), where it’s remained continuously since. So we’re now just a couple of weeks from exceeding the lengthy 1978-80 inversion, which is the longest continuous inversion in available data back to 1940.
Over in Europe, it was the mirror image for long-end yields, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.2bps), OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-8.0bps) all falling back. The main exception to that were UK gilts, where the 10yr yield was up +0.4bps ahead of tomorrow’s budget announcement. That said, one consistent theme on both sides of the Atlantic was a curve flattening, and front-end yields inched higher in Europe as investors continued to dial back the chance of an ECB rate cut in the near term. For instance, only 4bps of easing are now priced by April – that is a 17% chance of a 25bps cut – with investors increasingly focusing on the summer as the timing for a first cut. More than 40bps of cuts had been priced by April at the start of the year.
The quiet start to the week for US equities did see the Magnificent 7 (-0.85%) under-perform, with slightly more moderate losses for the NASDAQ (-0.41%). There were contrasting moves within the Magnificent 7, with Tesla down -7.16% amid new price cuts and discounts by EV maker, while Nvidia (+3.60%) overtook Saudi Aramco to become the third largest company in the world by market cap. On the other hand, the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 was up +0.24% on the day, as utilities (+1.65%) and banks (+1.58%) outperformed. Back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.03%) was flat on the day, but there was a noticeably underperformance from the FTSE 100 (-0.55%). That continued the FTSE 100’s trend of being the worst-performing major equity index in Europe so far this year, with a YTD performance of -1.20%, in contrast to the +3.85% gain for the STOXX 600, and a +5.76% gain for the German DAX.
Looking forward, today will be a pivotal one in the US election calendar as it’s Super Tuesday, which is the day when the single-biggest number of primaries take place. Indeed, for both the Republicans and Democrats, over a third of the total delegates are up for grabs. So depending how things pan out, it might be just a couple of weeks until one candidate has a delegate majority. On the Republican side there are 15 states voting, and the only two major candidates left are Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. But Trump has already built a substantial delegate lead in the early states, and now leads Nikki Haley by 273 delegates to 43. Haley did win the primary in Washington DC over the weekend, giving her all 19 delegates there, but she continues to lag far behind Trump in the national polls. And even though the precise rules vary by state, several have some sort of winner-takes-all format. So if Trump can get at least 50% of the vote in many of those states, he’ll get all the statewide delegates, offering him the potential to really widen his lead today. Maybe the most interesting thing today is whether he performs in line with polling as so far in the primaries he has perhaps slightly underperformed in what were mostly big victories still. In turn this may help shape how people interpret his national standings in the polls as the year progresses.
On the Democratic side, President Biden isn’t facing a serious challenge and currently has 206 delegates, with just 2 others uncommitted, and none for any other candidate.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning as China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is fully underway. In terms of specific moves, the Hang Seng Tech Index (-3.18%) is the biggest underperformer across the region with the Hang Seng (-1.95%) also trading sharply lower partly due to a new ban by the US government on AMD selling its AI chips to China. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.64%) is also trading in the red while the Nikkei (+0.21%), the CSI (+0.50%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.26%) are holding on to gains. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and Nasdaq (-0.35%) futures are ticking lower.
Coming back to China, the nation has set its GDP growth target at 5% for 2024. Premier Li Qiang pledged that China would remove restrictions for foreign investment in manufacturing while announcing the issuance of “ultra-long” special government bonds worth 1trillion yuan ($138.9 billion) for major projects. Other measures mentioned during the meeting included a 7.2% rise in defense spending, the biggest in five years. See our economist’s take on what’s been announced so far here. The market’s big question will be whether they can back up their growth target with enough stimulus.
Early morning data showed that inflation in Tokyo reaccelerated, advancing +2.6% y/y in February (v/s +2.5% expected) as against a revised rise of +1.8% the previous month. Core inflation rose from an upwardly revised +1.8% y/y to +2.5% y/y in February, in-line with the market consensus. Separately, Japan’s services PMI was finalised at 52.9 in February, edging down from 53.1 but staying in expansionary territory for the 18th month in a row. The composite PMI was finalised at 50.6, down from 51.5.
Otherwise yesterday, there was a fresh milestone for gold (+1.62%), which closed above $2,100 for the first time ever. That said, it’s worth noting that in real terms, gold is still some way beneath its other peaks, such as in 1980, 2011 and 2020. Elsewhere, we also saw Bitcoin again rally past the $65,000 level and has got within half a percent of its all-time intraday peak of $68,992 overnight, which was seen back in November 2021. However it’s back at $66,527 as I type.
In energy markets, oil prices retreated at the start of the week, with WTI down -1.54% to $78.74/bbl, after reaching a near-three-month high on Friday. This decline came even as Sunday’s (widely expected) extension of existing OPEC+ production cuts into Q2 was accompanied by Russia pledging additional output reduction of up to 471k barrels a day.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the ISM services index for February in the US, as well as the global services and composite PMIs for February. Otherwise, there’s January data for US factory orders, Euro Area PPI, and French industrial production. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. Today’s earnings releases include Target. And in US politics, it’s Super Tuesday, with lots of primaries taking place for both Republicans and Democrats.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities lower, with NQ hampered by AAPL & TSLA, JPY firmer post-CPI; US ISM due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 06:07 AM
Equities are entirely in the red; the NQ lags, dragged down by Apple and Tesla
Dollar is flat, with G10’s mostly lower though the Yen holds firm post-CPI
Bonds are firmer, though revised EZ PMIs spurred a gradual hawkish move for EGBs
Crude lacks direction, XAU continues to trade higher and base metals are mixed
APAC focus on hot Tokyo CPI and China’s 2024 GDP target being set around 5%, as expected
Looking ahead, US PMI, US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Durable Goods, ISM, US Primary “Super Tuesday”, Comments from Fed’s Barr, Earnings from Target & Crowdstrike
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) began the session mostly in modest negative territory, and EZ Composite/Services PMIs (which were revised higher) did little to sway the indices.
European sectors hold a strong negative tilt, with the typical Defensive sectors (Utilities/Healthcare) able to remain afloat. Autos is found at the foot of the pile, with sentiment hampered following poor Tesla Chinese shipments data yesterday, with a factory fire at the Co’s German plant also not helping.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.7%, RTY -0.4%) are entirely in the red, taking impetus from a downbeat sentiment in Europe. The NQ underperforms, hampered by losses in Tesla (-1.9%), after news that its plant in Germany was powerless, following a fire caused by “eco-activists”. Elsewhere, Apple (-1.5%) continues to sink lower, on reports that iPhone sales in China plunged.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Uneventful trade for the dollar with DXY consolidating on a 103 handle and respecting yesterday’s 103.72-96 range. Downside sees the 200DMA at 103.73. Upside focus is on reclaiming 104.
EUR is steady vs. the USD and contained within a tight 1.0842-58 range and yesterday’s 1.0837-67 parameters. Final PMIs had little sway on the EUR with attention turning to Thursday’s ECB announcement.
Contained trade for Cable with a range of 1.2672-94 which sits within yesterday’s 1.2650-1.2707 bounds. PMIs had little sway on the pound with traders more mindful of tomorrow’s budget and potential forthcoming tax cuts, latest via the Times seemingly cements a National Insurance cut.
JPY a touch firmer vs. the USD following hot Tokyo inflation metrics overnight, which were followed up by comms from Japanese officials that markets must brace for higher rates. That being said, still remains above 150.50 and close to 150.88 YTD peak.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with potential disappointment out of China weighing on sentiment. AUD/USD has lost 0.65 status and gone as low as 0.6478. If downside extends, YTD trough at 0.6442 could come into view.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1027 vs exp. 7.1961 (prev. 7.1020).
Bunds began the session on the front foot, extending to a 133.28 peak before stalling and as such remained shy of 133.30 & 133.37 from 21st & 23rd February. Thereafter, EZ Final PMIs spurred a gradual hawkish move across the regional and pan-EZ figures, a move which was sufficient to bring Bunds back to the 133.00 mark, though still remain firmer on the day.
USTs are in-fitting with European peers and pulled back alongside EZ PMIs. Holds towards the upper end of a 110-23-111-00 range. A high point which resides just a tick shy of Monday’s best.
Gilts initially moved in tandem with EGBs, awaiting its own PMI release, which saw a modest revision lower and as such lifted Gilts by a handful of ticks to just above 98.50 but shy of the earlier 98.61 peak.
Crude futures are choppy after seeing little notable fallout from the China Two-Session and as geopolitical updates remain sparse, though crude prices clambered off lows as EZ PMIs saw upward revisions. Currently crude holds below USD 83/bbl.
Precious metals see modest gains despite a flat Dollar and relatively light macro and geopolitical newsflow this morning, with prices seemingly continuing the momentum from yesterday; XAU rose above yesterday’s peak (2,119.97/oz) as it continues to hone in on the 2023 peak near USD 2,148/oz.
A mixed session for base metals after some APAC weakness following the underwhelming China Two-Sessions which provided little in the way of policy details, particularly for the Real Estate sector; 3M LME copper briefly dipped under USD 8,500/t before finding support, currently printing a USD 8,496.00-8,541.50/t range.
Alberta oil production fell by 380k BPD M/M to 3.81mbpd in January amid to cold weather, according to the Alberta energy regulator
Barclays said UK consumer spending in February rose 1.9% Y/Y and was dampened by wet weather, while it noted that consumer confidence about non-essential spending was the highest since November 2021, according to Reuters.
ECB insider expects inflation forecasts to be cut this year and maybe next year, according to Econostream Media.
UK Chancellor Hunt will cut national insurance by 2pp in the Spring Budget on Wednesday, according to Times’ Swinford.
DATA RECAP
Italian HCOB Composite PMI (Feb) 51.1 (Prev. 50.7); HCOB Services PMI (Feb) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 51.2)
German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Feb) 46.3 vs. Exp. 46.1 (Prev. 46.1); HCOB Services PMI (Feb) 48.3 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.2)
French HCOB – Services PMI (Feb) 48.4 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 48.0); HCOB Composite PMI (Feb) 48.1 vs. Exp. 47.7 (Prev. 47.7)
EU HCOB Services Final PMI (Feb) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.0); HCOB Composite Final PMI (Feb) 49.2 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.9); “This heightens concerns regarding the potential emergence of a wage-price spiral and stagflation”
UK S&P Final Global Services PMI (Feb) 53.8 vs. Exp. 54.3 (Prev. 54.3); S&P Final Global Composite PMI (Feb) 53 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 53.3); “Job creation remained relativity subdued as elevated wage pressures meant that cautious hiring strategies prevailed for most businesses.”
UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Feb) 1.0% (Prev. 1.4%); BRC Total Sales YY (Feb) 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
French Industrial Output MM (Jan) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 1.1%, Rev. 0.4%)
Italian GDP Final YY (Q4) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%); GDP Final QQ (Q4) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
EU Producer Prices YY (Jan) -8.6% vs. Exp. -8.1% (Prev. -10.6%, Rev. -10.7%); Producer Prices MM (Jan) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. -0.9%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Tesla’s (TSLA) facility outside Berlin and some of the surrounding area are powerless following a fire caused by ‘eco activists’, via BZ; plant outside Berlin has been evacuated and production is at a standstill, with suspected arson reported
Foxconn (2317 TT) sales -12.3% Y/Y in Feb (prev. -20.9% in Jan); outlook for Q1 2024 is expected to decrease Y/Y.
Alphabet’s Google (GOOG) rolls out changes for users and app developers as EU tech rule looms.
NIO Inc (NIO) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS -0.45 (exp. -0.33), Revenue 2.4089bln (exp. 2.33bln); Quarterly deliveries were 50,045 units, sees Q1 deliveres between 31-33k vehicles
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas said in a message they will be flexible on the issue of the number of prisoners if Israel is flexible on the issue of returning Palestinians to northern Gaza, according to Axios’ Ravid on X.
US Central Command said Yemen’s Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea on March 4th although there were no reported damages or injuries to commercial or US Navy ships. Houthis also fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC Sky II which is a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel, while one of the missiles impacted the vessel and caused damage but initial reports indicated no injuries. Furthermore, CENTCOM said its forces conducted strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an ‘imminent threat’ to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.
Gaza ceasefire talks between Hamas and mediators broke up on Tuesday in Egypt with no breakthrough as the Ramadan deadline looms, according to Reuters
OTHER
China’s coastguard took control measures against Philippine vessels that ‘illegally’ intruded into waters adjacent to the Second Thomas Shoal, according to state media. Philippines coastguard spokesperson said vessels faced dangerous manoeuvres and blocking from China’s coastguard and maritime militia during a resupply mission, while the reckless and illegal actions led to a collision between the Philippines and Chinese coastguard vessels in which the Philippine vessel sustained minor structural damage.
North Korea’s Defence Ministry said South Korean-US military drills are not defensive and should stop, while it added that South Korea and the US will face consequences for their wrong choice, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin takes a breather and holds just beneath USD 67k, whilst Ethereum (+3.6%) continues to advance higher.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed as the region digested China’s Work Report and Caixin Services PMI data.
ASX 200 closed slightly lower as strength in mining and health care was offset by losses in the consumer sectors.
Nikkei 225 initially retreated beneath the 40,000 level after the latest Tokyo CPI data showed an acceleration in price growth, but then gradually recovered its losses and returned to positive territory.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with notable underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark amid weakness in tech and health care, while the miss on Chinese Caixin Services PMI also provides a headwind for risk appetite. Conversely, the mainland just about remained afloat after the announcement of the government Work Report with the GDP growth target maintained at around 5%, as expected, although Premier Li noted the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not solid yet and domestic demand is not strong.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China unveiled the government work report with the 2024 GDP growth target set at around 5%, as expected, but noted achieving this year’s economic growth target will not be easy, while it will continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, as well as noted that China should intensify cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments through macro policies. China will launch a year-long program to stimulate consumption and roll out a “worry-free consumption” initiative to improve the consumption environment and will make concerted efforts to defuse local government debt risks. Furthermore, China will take tough measures against illegal financial activities and will move faster to foster a new development model for real estate.
Chinese Premier Li said the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not solid yet and China’s domestic demand is not strong with social expectations relatively weak. Li also commented that some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing operational difficulties but added that China will stabilise and expand private investment.
China’s state planner said it will lift all foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector and it will relax market access restrictions in service industries such as telecoms and medical services, according to Reuters.
Japan Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy Shindo said they are not thinking now of declaring anything when asked whether the government could call an end to deflation, while Finance Minister Suzuki also said there was no truth to the media report that government is considering announcing the end of deflation.
Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda must brace for higher interest rates environment given assumed interest rates raised to 1.9% from 1.1%; must strive for responsible fiscal management by achieving primary budget balancing in FY25/26.
Click here for the China Two-Sessions highlights and analyst thoughts
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Feb) 52.5 vs Exp. 52.9 (Prev. 52.7); Composite PMI (Feb) 52.5 (Prev. 52.5)
Tokyo CPI YY (Feb) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.6%); CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Feb) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.6%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Feb) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)
Australian Current Account Balance (AUD)(Q4) 11.8B vs. Exp. 5.6B (Prev. -0.2B); Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.6%)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.49 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 433.33 PTS OR 2.61% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 11.60 PTS OR 0.03%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.10% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1992 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2123 /Oil DOWN TO 78.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.19/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA/APPLE
Gloom, Doom: Apple’s iPhone Sales In China Plunge 24%
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Just days after Goldman removed Apple from its “Conviction List” and Evercore ISI dropped Apple from its “Tactical Outperform” list, which both banks cited mounting concerns about an iPhone sales slowdown, particularly as China’s economic troubles worsened. A new report shows Chinese iPhone sales have collapsed.
New figures from Counterpoint Research, first cited by Bloomberg, show iPhone sales in mainland China plunged 24% over the first six weeks of the year. The report stokes concerns about waning iPhone demand across the world’s largest smartphone market.
Counterpoint shows that China’s overall smartphone market shrank by 7% in the first six weeks of the year. Dongguan-based Vivo had the top share of phone sales.
Last week, Bloomberg reported iPhone 15 Pro Max handsets were priced on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Tmall for around 1,300 yuan ($180) lower than the suggested retail price, indicating these phones were being heavily discounted to stimulate demand.
The iPhone 15 has not been popular in China since Huawei Technologies Co. launched the Mate Pro 60 last August.
Huawei has been a thorn in Apple’s side since the surprising debut of its homegrown Mate 60 Pro devices, which triggered a wave of patriotic buying and took share away from the US company. Huawei jumped to a 16.5% China market share in the first six weeks, up from 9.4%. The company that split from Huawei in 2020, Honor Device Co., was the only other major maker to show unit sales growth, at 2%. Apple fell below 16% market share, from 19% a year ago, according to the researchers. -Bloomberg
“Despite a decline in consumer confidence, Huawei’s enhancements in production enabled the company to meet demand for its popular Mate 60 series,” Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam said.
Lam continued: “The previous year period was already quite depressed, but as far as Apple is concerned, there is more wriggle room in the short term. The aggressive promotions before Women’s Day are just one example.”
In a separate note, IDC analyst Will Wong warned: “Apple is catching up with the ‘deflation’ trend in China, intending to boost the demand for iPhones.”
The latest analyst warnings, discount pricing news, and increasing data that show an iPhone slowdown have materialized and sent shares even lower, down 2% in premarket trading in New York.
Apple is the laggard of the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Dear Apple: Moar stock buybacks, please!
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY/
END
GERMANY/TUESDAY
STUPID: THEY KNOCK OUT ELECTRICAL CARS LEAVING FOSSIL FUEL AUTOS ALONE/
(ZEROHEDGE)
Far-Left “Eco-Terrorists” Attack German Power Grid, Causing Outage At Tesla’s Gigafactory
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 10:45 AM
A far-left militant/environmental group, known as “Vulkangruppe” (Volcano Group), has claimed responsibility for an attack on Germany’s electricity infrastructure on Tuesday, paralyzing vehicle production at Tesla’s European Gigafactory near Berlin.
Police in the state of Brandenburg said someone set fire to a nearby high-voltage tower, causing a blaze that cut off electricity to the Gigafactory and more than 60,000 people in the surrounding area.
A Tesla spokesperson confirmed to Reuters that the attack on the grid caused a power outage at the factory, resulting in a production halt. The spokesperson added that the site was evacuated.
“We sabotaged Tesla today. Because Tesla in Grünau eats up earth, resources, people, labor and spits out 6,000 SUVs, killing machines and monster trucks per week. Our gift for March 8th is to shut down Tesla. Because the complete destruction of the Gigafactory and with it the sawing off of “technofascists” like Elend Musk are a step on the path to liberation from patriarchy,” the eco-terrorist wrote in a 2,500-word attack on Tesla.
On X, CEO Elon Musk responded to the incident by saying:
“These are either the dumbest eco-terrorists on Earth or they’re puppets of those who don’t have good environmental goals. Stopping production of electric vehicles, rather than fossil fuel vehicles, ist extrem dumm.”
GERMANY CONDEMNS ATTACK ON TESLA GIGAFACTORY Calling the attack “a form of terrorism,” German politician Dietmar Woidke said: “It is obviously a serious attack on our critical infrastructure with consequences for thousands of people as well as many small and large businesses in our country.” Left-wing extremists, the Vulkan Group, have claimed responsibility for the attack, stating they wanted to “shut down Tesla.” The power supply has now been restored to the Gigafactory. Source: NTV
0:06 / 2:32
Quote
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
·
6h
BREAKING: TESLA’S BERLIN GIGAFACTORY TARGETED BY ECO ARSONISTS Eco protesters set fire to a nearby transformer, causing the plant to lose power and bringing production to a standstill. Police found a bomb warning attached to a protester’s tent next to the burning…
Tesla shares in New York were down about 2.5% in the early morning cash session.
Meanwhile, there are environmental protesters near the Gigafactory…
Why are eco-terrorists attacking Tesla when it’s claimed by these groups that electric vehicles will save the planet from imminent climate doom? Or is it this eco-terrorist group is being weaponized by dark money to go after Musk for his ‘free-speech’ platform X that goes against the censorship-industrial complex in the West?
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/
Hamas claims it needs a truce to meet Israel’s demand for list of living hostages
Another senior Hamas figure asserts ‘ball is in Israel’s court’ to reach agreement, but US says opposite is the case: ‘There is a deal on the table… Hamas just needs to take it’
Israeli and Hamas officials accused each other on Monday of stalling ongoing negotiations to secure a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages held in Gaza, even as Egyptian and United States officials expressed cautious optimism that such a deal was forthcoming.
A Hamas official also claimed the terror group could not currently meet a key Israeli demand for a list of living hostages and that it would first need a halt to the fighting to be able to establish which captives were still alive.
Mediators and envoys from the Hamas terror group have made “significant progress” toward a truce in the Gaza Strip, Egyptian state-linked TV reported Monday, as talks in Cairo entered a second day.
However, a senior Hamas official on Monday told Lebanese outlet Al Mayadeen that “there is no real progress” in hostage talks, which he attributed to Israel’s “refusal to give clear answers regarding Hamas demands.”
Those demands — nonstarters for Israel — are a full ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and allowing displaced Gazans to return home before the terrorist organization gives any information on the hostages it holds.
Another senior unnamed Hamas official told Arab World Press that “the ball is in Israel’s court” on the hostage talks, after the terror group presented its criteria for the Palestinian prisoners it wants to see released.
Hamas did not give names of specific prisoners, but the official said at least 20 Palestinians serving life sentences will be included.
The source added that Hamas was not pushing for an immediate return of Gazans to the north of the Strip because of the risk of overcrowding, but wants there to be an orderly, staged return of over 500 families daily throughout the ceasefire period, with the Red Cross and UNRWA being involved.
Palestinians gather in a street as humanitarian aid is airdropped in Gaza City, in the northern Gaza Strip, on March 1, 2024. (AFP)
Israel declined on Sunday to send a delegation to the current round of talks in Cairo due to Hamas’s failure to produce a list of living hostages, which Egypt and Qatar had guaranteed Israel during a previous round of talks in Paris.
Along with the United States, Egypt and Qatar have been mediating the negotiations in the almost five-month-old war between Israel and Hamas, which began with a shock assault launched by the Gaza terror group on southern Israel on October 7.
“We didn’t until now submit any list,” Hamas politburo member Basim Naim, speaking from Istanbul, said in an interview with BBC published Monday. “It is now impossible to know exactly who is still alive and who has been killed because of the Israeli bombardment or who has been killed because of starvation because of the Israeli blockade.”
He added that the hostages “are in different areas with different groups and therefore we have called for a ceasefire to be able to collect the data.”
The US State Department meanwhile reiterated its call for an immediate ceasefire, while putting the responsibility on Hamas to accept an agreement.
“There ought to be an immediate ceasefire in Gaza that brings the hostages out, that alleviates the suffering of the Palestinian people,” spokesperson Matthew Miller said at a press conference Monday, adding that “there is a deal on the table that would deliver all of those things — Hamas just needs to take it.”
Miller’s comments came after the Axios news site quoted two unnamed US officials Sunday as saying that US President Joe Biden, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi “agreed the onus is currently on Hamas to close remaining gaps in the package.”
“We still hope we can get a deal by Ramadan. The ball is in Hamas’s court,” one of the senior US officials was quoted as saying.
On Friday, Biden also acknowledged that although a deal remains elusive for now, he still hopes it will be finalized by Ramadan. “I’m hoping so, we’re still working real hard on it,” the president told reporters at the White House, adding: “We’ll get there but we’re not there yet — we may not get there.”
US President Joe Biden walks towards members of the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, March 1, 2024, to travel to Camp David, Maryland., for the weekend. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
An unnamed Hamas official told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that while there is slow progress on an agreement for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, it seems unlikely that it will be reached before Ramadan’s start on March 10, and instead may come to fruition by the first weekend of the Muslim holy month.
Unnamed officials cited by Hebrew media on Sunday said Jerusalem suspects that Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar has no intention of reaching an agreement in the coming days, and hopes to escalate violence over Ramadan, which is usually a time of heightened tensions between Palestinians and Israel.
In such a scenario, Israel is wary of an escalation not just along its borders with Gaza and Lebanon, but also across the West Bank, where tensions are high, as well as in Jerusalem, where clashes over the Temple Mount and access to the holy site are widely expected.
Also Monday, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir — whose proposal to limit the access of Arab citizens of Israel to the Temple Mount over Ramadan was rejected last week by a war cabinet wary of further stoking tensions — called to end the hostage negotiations, while accusing the terror group of “deliberately delaying the talks, with the aim of either continuing in Ramadan or coming to a full halt because of Ramadan.”
“This foot-dragging does not advance the return of the hostages, this foot-dragging risks the safety of our soldiers, our position and our reputation, and puts us in a situation where they’re watching us slowly get weaker,” Ben Gvir said at a Knesset meeting of his ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit party.
“We must intensify the war; this is the only way we’ll win,” he added.
The Knesset on Monday was also the site of a silent procession of hostages’ family members, who marked their loved ones’ 150th day in Hamas captivity.
Israelis rally for the release of hostages held in Gaza, at the Knesset on March 4, 2024 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
It is believed that 130 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released prior to that. Three hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 11 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military.
On October 7, thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed southern Israel to kill nearly 1,200 people, and take 253 hostages, while committing numerous atrocities and weaponizing sexual violence on a mass scale.
Vowing to dismantle the Palestinian terror group, Israel launched an unprecedented ground and air campaign on the Gaza Strip, which has seen about half the Strip’s residences destroyed, displacing over a million people, many of whom face severe risk of starvation.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 30,000 people in the Strip have been killed in the fighting so far, a figure that cannot be independently verified and includes some 13,000 Hamas terrorists Israel says it has killed in battle. Israel also says it killed some 1,000 gunmen inside Israel on October 7.
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/HAMAS
Dozens of Hamas, PIJ terrorists arrested after IDF surrounds Hamad, in Khan Yunis
In the Beit Hanun area, the forces identified a squad of terrorists who operated a drone, and after the identification – a fighter jet eliminated the squad.
IDF operates in Khan Yunis, Gaza on March 4, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF’s 98th Division surrounded the Hamad neighborhood in Khan Yunis on Monday and raided infrastructure in the area, where Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists operated, the IDF stated on Tuesday.
The terrorists were then promptly arrested by Israeli forces.
This took place after the terrorists attempted to escape from the western Khan Yunis neighborhood during civilian evacuations that the IDF was carrying out in the area, which were being done to protect Gazan civilians. Israeli forces also located weapons during the raids.
About 20 terrorists were also eliminated on Monday in central Gaza by Israeli forces through the use of sniper and tank fire and UAVs.
IDF troops concurrently continued to act to evacuate civilians from combat areas, the military added.
IDF eliminates terror squad
In the Beit Hanun area in northern Gaza, the forces identified a squad of terrorists who operated a drone. A fighter jet subsequently eliminated the squad.
IDF operates in Khan Yunis, Gaza on March 4, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The IDF eliminated about twenty terrorists in the central Gaza Strip, with the IAF striking over 50 Hamas targets, which included rocket launch positions, munitions warehouses, tunnel shafts, and other military infrastructures
END
ISRAEL/JORDAN
After slamming Israel for the past 5 months, Jordan desperately needs more Israeli water. Israel will agree providing they stop their rhetoric.
(Jerusalem Post)
Chutzpah? After slamming Israel, Jordan now wants more Israeli water – analysis
Both countries need each other. But this is something that Jordanian officials seem to forget in their often vitriolic condemnations of Israel at home and around the world.
By HERB KEINONMARCH 5, 2024 21:02Updated: MARCH 5, 2024 21:13
Brine water flows into the Mediterranean Sea after passing through a desalination plant in the coastal city of Hadera.(photo credit: NIR ELIAS/REUTERS)
On November 16, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi – whose anti-Israel rhetoric since October 7 has been strident – took to Al Jazeera to say the planned signing a month later of a three-way Jordan-Israel-UAE water-for-energy deal would not take place.“We will not sign this agreement any longer. Can you imagine a Jordanian minister sitting next to an Israeli minister to sign a water and electricity agreement, all while Israel continues to kill children in Gaza?” the top Jordanian diplomat said.Under the deal, Jordan was to supply Israel with solar energy from a UAE-funded plant in exchange for desalinated water from Israel.“Israel’s aggression and crimes [in Gaza] can no longer be justified as self-defense. It has been killing innocent civilians and attacking hospitals,” he continued. “If any other state had committed a fraction of what Israel is doing now, we would have seen sanctions imposed on it from every corner of the globe.”Jordan, since October 7, has recalled its ambassador and asked the Israeli envoy in Amman to leave the country.Fast forward some three and a half months, and Jordan, according to a report on Sunday on Kan 11, asked Israel to renew a deal whereby Israel sells the water-deficient Hashemite Kingdom an additional 50 million cubic meters of water over and beyond the 50m. cm. that it is obligated to provide under the 1994 peace treaty.
Jordanians carry flags and placards as they demonstrate against the declaration of intent for water-for-energy deal signed by Israel, Jordan and the UAE, in Amman, Jordan. (credit: MUATH FREIJ/REUTERS)
In 2021, then prime minister Naftali Bennett, in an attempt to improve ties with the Hashemite Kingdom, agreed to double the amount of water Israel provided under the treaty. At the time, then infrastructure, energy, and water minister Karine Elharrar said the new agreement was proof that “we want good neighborly relations.”It is this agreement that is expiring on May 1, and which Jordan wants to renew. In other words, now Safadi’s government has fewer qualms about sitting next to an Israeli minister and signing a deal.According to the Kan report, Israel is reviewing the request. Reportedly, it has let it be known that it has a few conditions. First and foremost, softening the Erdogan-like anti-Israel rhetoric coming from top Jordanian officials. Secondly, restoring diplomatic relations – meaning an exchange of ambassadors – to where they were before October 7.It’s about time.“Good neighborly relations” is a two-way street, and the anti-Israel rhetoric and incitement coming from Jordan since October 7 is not exactly the way to foster those positive bilateral ties.It is not only the Jordanian labor unions, parliamentarians, or Safadi who are piling on. A couple of weeks after October 7, when the images from that savage day were still fresh, Jordan’s Queen Rania gave an unforgettable interview to CNN when she questioned the veracity of reports about the brutality of the attacks.
And on a trip to Washington last month, King Abdullah lamented “seven decades of occupation, death, and destruction,” borrowing language used by those who see Israel’s very existence as an “occupation,” not just settlement beyond the Green Line after the 1967 Six-Day War.Let there be no mistake, the peace agreement with Jordan is of primary strategic interest to Israel. A stable Hashemite Kingdom keeps a hostile power from setting up camp directly to Israel’s east, along its longest border. Imagine, for a second, Iranian-backed militias along the other side of the Jordan River instead of Jordanian troops.The peace agreement is also of primary strategic importance to Jordan, since the relationship with Israel – and the intelligence and security cooperation that comes with it – serve as protection for the Hashemite Kingdom against hostile powers taking it over from east or north. Furthermore, it is a key factor in massive US aid that the country receives.Both countries need each other. But this is something that Jordanian officials seem to forget in their often vitriolic condemnations of Israel at home and around the world.Jordan’s request now to renew the water deal is a good time for Jerusalem to remind the Jordanians that Israel also has expectations.Or, as Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies put it succinctly in a tweet on Monday, “Jordan is asking for more water after trashing the Israelis for nearly 5 months, and downplaying 10/7. This comes after years of vitriol to placate the majority Palestinian population. Israel needs to help. Jordan’s stability is crucial. But a different contract is needed.”Part of this new contract should be the expectation that Jordan, as the custodian of al-Aqsa Mosque, use its influence there to try to tamp down tensions surrounding the mosque and the Temple Mount on Ramadan.The cabinet met on Tuesday to discuss the arrangements that will be in place on the Temple Mount on Ramadan, with Israel’s security chiefs reportedly of one mind that widespread restrictions on Israeli Arabs – which National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had favored – could lead to violence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel has always and will continue to allow freedom of worship.
Taking steps toward de-escalation
Israel, as it is taking steps to tamp down possible tensions surrounding al-Aqsa, should also signal Jordan as it is reviewing its water request that it also has a role to play in alleviating the tensions. All too often, during Ramadan, Jordanian rhetoric has gone in the opposite direction.Two years ago, for instance, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh, in an outrageous speech in the Jordanian parliament following clashes on the Temple Mount during Ramadan, said, “I praise every Palestinian and Jordanian Islamic Waqf [religious trust] worker who stands tall like a turret and those who throw rocks at the pro-Zionists who are defiling Al-Aqsa Mosque while under the security of the Israeli occupation government.”The pro-Zionists he referred to were Jews praying at the Western Wall.Abdullah, as well, did little to ease tensions, saying Israel’s “unilateral” moves against Muslim worshipers undermined the prospect of peace, and he blamed Israel’s “provocative acts” at the compound for the unrest.Israel, as it considers whether to renew the water deal, has some leverage, and should impress upon the Jordanians that – as it considers sending more water from the Kinneret to faucets in Amman – it expects its peace partner to the east to work this year to douse flames on the Temple Mount and not to fan them by playing into the hands of Hamas and others who will try to ignite a conflagration by saying, as they do every year, “Al-Aqsa is in danger.”
Related Tags
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
‘A critical point’: Gallant warns Israel edging closer to war with Hezbollah
Fighter jet intercepts UAV that crosses from Syria into Golan • Indian citizen killed in Hezbollah rocket fire in northern Israel
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks with Israeli soldiers at a staging area not far from the Israeli-Gaza border, October 19, 2023(photo credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Tuesday the continuing tension with Hezbollah terrorists at the border with Lebanon was moving the situation nearer to a military escalation.
“We are committed to the diplomatic process, however Hezbollah’s aggression is bringing us closer to a critical point in the decision-making regarding our military activities in Lebanon,” he said in a statement following a meeting with US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein.
Earlier on Tuesday, an unmanned aerial vehicle that infiltrated the Golan Heights from Syria was intercepted by an Israeli fighter jet, according to Israeli media, as rockets continued to be fired onto Israel’s northern border towns from Lebanon.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant seen with Amos Hochstein in Israel on March 5, 2024 (credit: SHACHAR YURMAN/DEFENSE MINISTRY)
Indian citizen killed in Hezbollah rocket fire in northern Israel named
It was further announced that Patnibin Maxwell, 31, from India, was killed by anti-tank fire in Margaliot in northern Israel on Monday, Israeli media reported the following day.
He came to Israel in December of last year to work in agriculture. Another two Indians were seriously wounded in the Hezbollah attack.
Patnibin Maxwell, 31, was killed by Hezbollah fire in northern Israel on March 4, 2024. (credit: Via Maariv)
India’s embassy in Israel on Tuesday advised its nationals working in Israeli border areas to move to safer parts of the country.
end
END
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
Soldier seriously hurt in West Bank stabbing attack; assailant shot dead
Troops kill teenage stabber at Yitzhar Junction; overnight, soldiers nab prominent terror operative planning ‘imminent’ attack; IDF probing death of Palestinian boy
This handout image from the IDF shows the knife used in a stabbing attack at Yitzhar Junction in the West Bank on March 5, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
An Israeli soldier was stabbed and seriously wounded in an attack carried out by a Palestinian teenager in the northern West Bank on Tuesday, the military and medics said.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, the assailant approached an army post at the Yitzhar Junction, close to the settlement of the same name, and stabbed one of the soldiers.
Other troops, of the Kfir Brigade’s Nahshon Battalion, shot the stabber dead, the IDF said.
The assailant was named by Palestinian media as Muhammad Shehadeh, 17.
The victim was taken to Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva, which listed him in serious condition. The IDF said the soldier’s family was updated on his condition.
Earlier Tuesday, the Border Police, Shin Bet security agency, and IDF said troops detained a prominent terror operative in the Balata refugee camp near Nablus in the northern West Bank in an overnight raid.
In a joint statement, authorities said Muhammad Tanji was planning an “imminent” terror attack with other operatives.
Tanji was “one of the main operatives in the terror infrastructure in Balata over the past year,” the statement said.
اعتقال قائد كتيبة بلاطة ومؤسسها محمد ابو ذراع “الزنكلوني” المصاب اكتر من اصابة والمطلوب لقوات الاحتلال منذ اكثر من اربع سنوات.
Translate post
·
31.6K Views
Palestinian media identified Tanji as a leader and founder of the so-called Balata Battalion, a local wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group in the refugee camp.
The IDF said troops also operated in the northern West Bank village of Kafr Dan overnight, to demolish the home of a Palestinian accused of taking part in a deadly terror attack last year.
Abed Massad was allegedly involved in the killing of Shay Silas Nigreker, 60, and his 28-year-old son, Aviad Nir, in the West Bank town of Huwara last August. The attack itself was carried out by Osama Bani Fadl, whose home was demolished by authorities in December.
As a matter of policy, Israel regularly demolishes the homes of Palestinians accused of carrying out deadly terror attacks as well as their accomplices. The efficacy of the policy has been hotly debated even within the Israeli security establishment, while human rights activists denounce the practice as unjust collective punishment.
IDF troops demolish the home of a Palestinian accused of involvement in a deadly terror attack, in the West Bank village of Kafr Dan, early March 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
In other raids across the West Bank, another 20 wanted Palestinians were arrested, the IDF said. Since October 7, the IDF has said troops have arrested some 3,450 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,500 affiliated with Hamas.
Separately, late Monday, the IDF said it was investigating the death of a Palestinian boy amid clashes in a West Bank village hours earlier.
On Monday afternoon, Palestinian media and the Yesh Din rights group reported that an 11-year-old boy, Amr al-Najjar, was shot dead by IDF troops in Burin, close to Nablus.
In response to a query by The Times of Israel, the IDF Spokespersons Unit said troops were operating in Burin when several suspects began to hurl stones at them.
The IDF said the soldiers returned fire, and a short while later it received reports of a Palestinian minor being hit.
“The circumstances of the incident are under investigation,” the IDF added.
At his funeral on Tuesday, al-Najjar’s body was draped in a Hamas flag.
Mourners carry the body of Amr al-Najjar, 11, draped in the Hamas flag, during his funeral in the West Bank village of Burin, near Nablus, March 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)
Yesh Din said al-Najjar was shot as he got out of a vehicle with his family in the village center to go shopping.
The rights group claimed that another two Palestinians were wounded in Burin, one of whom was shot and seriously hurt and one who was allegedly beaten by troops.
Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians have risen in the West Bank since the breakout of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza following the October 7 massacre, which saw Hamas terrorists kill about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnap 253.
According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, more than 400 West Bank Palestinians have been killed since October 7, most of them during violent clashes with Israeli forces.
END
USA/HOUTHIS/
Houthi Missile Hits Swiss-Owned Container Ship Near Aden
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 06:55 AM
The Red Sea has transformed from one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes into a warzone. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have withstood dozens of bombing raids by US and UK fighter jets. The Biden administration’s Operation Prosperity Guardian continues to fail as yet another container ship was attacked on Tuesday.
US Central Command posted on social media platform X that MSC Sky II, a container ship operated by MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co., was damaged in a missile attack about 90 miles southeast of the Yemeni city of Aden.
On Mar. 4, at approximately 2:15 a.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea. The missile impacted the water with no reported damage or injuries to commercial or US Navy ships.
Between the hours of 3:50 p.m. and 4:15 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC SKY II, a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel. One of the missiles impacted the vessel, causing damage. Initial reports indicate there were no injuries; the ship did not request assistance and continued on its way.
At 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), CENTCOM forces conducted self-defense strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region. These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for merchant and US Navy vessels.
March 4 Red Sea Update On Mar. 4, at approximately 2:15a.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea. The missile impacted the water with no reported damage or injuries to commercial or U.S. Navy ships. Between the hours of 3:50p.m. and 4:15p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC SKY II, a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel. One of the missiles impacted the vessel causing damage. Initial reports indicate there were no injuries; the ship did not request assistance and continued on its way. At 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), CENTCOM forces conducted self-defense strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region. These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for merchant and U.S. Navy vessels.
MSC confirmed to Bloomberg that the vessel was attacked while transiting near the Bab el-Mandeb strait from Singapore toward Djibouti.
“The missile caused a small fire that has been extinguished while no crew were injured,” the company said, adding, “She is currently continuing her journey to Djibouti and will arrive today for further assessment.”
In a note over the weekend, we cited David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute‘s report titled “Navigating the New World Disorder: Economic Faultlines, Fissures, Fractures, and Failures,” which pointed out – while the Red Sea crisis rages on – attention needs to turn to key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia of the next possible location Houthis will attack.
Remember what happened in 2019?
The world is one fire.
END
END
UKRAINE VS RUSSIA/
Ukraine overnight used a sea drone attack on a major Russian ship sinking it in the Black Sea
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Overnight Sea Drone Attack Sinks Another Russian Ship In Black Sea
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 02:30 PM
Ukraine is claiming another major successful operation in the Black Sea, with its military intelligence agency announcing that the large Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov was sunk overnight after it was hit by high-tech sea drones.
While Russia has not confirmed the claim, Ukraine’s military said “a special operations unit destroyed the large patrol ship Sergey Kotov overnight with Magura V5 uncrewed vessels that are designed and built in Ukraine and laden with explosives.”
The attack allegedly happened near the Kerch Strait, and would be a significant operational ‘win’ given the Sergey Kotov can carry cruise missiles and some 60 crew members.
Ukraine subsequently published video appearing to show the nighttime attack which left the ship severely damaged. The ship may have also had a helicopter on board at the time. “Right now this ship is on the seabed,” Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.
Ukraine said the cost of the sunken Sergei Kotov ship was $65m (£51.2m), adding that it was hit near the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia.
A video posted on social media appears to show the moment when the ship was hit. BBC Verify has looked at the video, released by Ukraine, said to be of the attack.
The vessel has similar structural features to a patrol ship of the same class as the Sergei Kotov. However, no number is visible on its side, so the footage does not make clear if it is the same ship.
The private security firm Ambrey has also said the attack happened at the port of Feodosia in Crimea. Typically the Kremlin doesn’t confirm such covert attacks or sinkings of its ships, but Russian military bloggers have acknowledged the incident.
Despite Ukraine forces being currently in retreat outside of Avdiivka, and suffering serious manpower and artillery shortages, they had some recent successes in attacks on Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet. Drone attacks on Crimea have also ramped up in the past days.
Last night, near Kerch, Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces conducted a USV attack on the Russian Project 22160 patrol ship Sergey Kotov, scoring multiple hits, causing catastrophic damage. Russian channels and the Ukrainian GUR report the vessel sank.
·
386.2K Views
Moscow believes these attacks utilizing both aerial and sea drones are assisted by Western intelligence, and the weapons themselves could be sourced to external backers as well, hence the Ukraine military’s emphasis that these drones were domestically produced (an attempt to preempt and deny suspicions that Western weaponry was used).
“At least 13 Russian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged since the start of the conflict, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank,” BBC has noted.
Just last month Ukraine said it sunk the Russian amphibious ship Caesar Kunikov utilizing drones, in an area just south of the city of Yalta. Ukraine’s drone operations have grown increasingly sophisticated and long distance, again raising the suspicions of Moscow that it could be NATO operators behind them.
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Stunning Admission: Fauci Admits COVID mRNA Vaccines Do Not Work
All this nonsense over Covid and vaccines. What was the point? Never again.
…. aside from the current tribulations of the Royal Family:
Two rockers diagnosed with Parkinson’s:
Justin Currie: Del Amitri frontman reveals Parkinson’s disease diagnosis ahead of European tour
February 27, 2024
Justin Currie, the lead singer for Scotland’s pop and rock band Del Amitri, has revealed he has been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. The 59-year-old rock star, who recently performed in his native Glasgow for the Celtic Connections festival, has discussed the impact of the condition in a Radio 4 programme to be aired next month. The announcement of his diagnosis, which occurred over two years ago, comes just before the start of a massive European tour by Del Amitri, which includes shows at venues such as the OVO Hydro in Glasgow and the Hebridean Celtic Festival in Stornoway.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Mick Jones health update: Foreigner lead guitarist reveals shocking diagnosis
February 21, 2024
Mick Jones [79] has been an integral part of Foreigner for decades now, but many fans have been wondering why he was absent at their current tour and he hasn’t come out on stage since 2022. More recently, the lead guitarist finally revealed what’s going on and it came as a shock to his longtime supporters. According to Loudwire, the musician was diagnosed with Parkinson’s Disease. In a statement shared online, as reported by Billboard, he began his letter by addressing his absence on tour as he wrote, “Fans will have become very aware that for some time now, I have not been performing onstage with the band.” He further noted that he was diagnosed with the condition and clarified that he’s “doing alright.”
The Apprentice’ Star Hospitalized While Travelling Abroad
February 22, 2024
The Apprentice star Lottie Lion is recovering after she was hospitalized amid her recent travels abroad. Lion, who competed on the UK version of the popular reality series in 2019 when she was just 19, revealed her emergency hospitalization on Wednesday when she shared a photo of herself from her hospital bed wearing an oxygen mask. Details of Lion’s hospitalization remain unclear at this time. The reality star, 24, initially shared a post to her Instagram Story Wednesday of a view of a harbour in Bali, writing overtop the message, per the Mirror, that she was “focusing on recovery.”
Fear for van den Berg, he falls for no reason during the race in the middle of the group: struck by a sudden illness
February 27, 2024
The Dutch cyclist Lars van den Berg, during the French classic Faun-Ardèche, suddenly felt ill and fell heavily to the ground. “A terrifying experience” he later said on social media, “I briefly lost consciousness while pedaling”. Now he is out of danger. There were moments of pure fear for the 25-year-old cyclist Lars van den Berg, the victim of a nasty and sudden fall during one of the early season classics, the Faun-Ardèche Classic which took place over the weekend on the roads of France. The Groupama-FDJ rider ended up on the ground and was immediately helped by other cyclists and medical staff. The causes are still to be ascertained but it was the Dutchman himself who later said on social media what happened: “I lost consciousness”. The fall was unexpected and for no apparent reason: no mechanical failure, no sudden braking or contact with other cyclists. Nothing that could explain what had happened in a seemingly peaceful moment of racing. Fortunately, it was the Dutch cyclist himself who later explained everything, telling social media about the incredible episode from which he emerged without consequences: “During the Faun-Ardèche Classic I didn’t feel well and I briefly lost consciousness while pedaling”, explained the 25-year-old from Groupama-FDJ, professional since 2020.
Sagan insists “everything is under control” after heart scare and procedure
February 24, 2024
Ancona – Peter Sagan has suffered a heart scare and undergone a cardiac procedure but the three-time road race world champion, now competing in mountain biking, has insisted he will be back racing within weeks. The issue arose when his heart rate shot above 200bpm, unexpectedly and for no apparent reason, after he had been riding hard at a race last weekend. Medical checks were carried out, revealing an issue with his heart, which has now necessitated a procedure at a clinic in Italy. “Everything is under control and in just a few days I’ll be back on my bike,” Sagan said in a brief statement on social media, also sharing a statement from the medical facility where he underwent the procedure. The Slovakian rider, who plans to ride the MTB race at the Olympics this year, underwent an ablation procedure to correct arrhythmias in the heart. The procedure uses small burns or freezes to cause some scarring on the inside of the heart to help break up the electrical signals that cause irregular heartbeats. “The athlete is fine. An internal electrophysiological study was carried out, which excluded any supraventricular or ventricular arrhythmia of pathological significance,” the statement from the hospital said. “A subcutaneous event recorder has been implanted which will allow the future monitoring of the athlete.” Sagan (34) retired from road racing, relatively young, at the end of the 2024 season. He had been at the top of the sport since his first big pro win; a stage in Paris-Nice in 2010 aged 20 years. He said last year his experience of Covid-19, which he contracted several times, had helped him make up his mind to decide 2023 would be his last as a road racer. He is on the 2024 roster of the Slovak Continental team, Pierre Baguette Cycling, and it appears will compete in some smaller road races towards his goal of the MTB race at the Olympics.
Jordi Turull, admitted to hospital after suffering a heart attack
February 26, 2024
Leading Catalan pro-independence politician Jordi Turull was admitted to Bellvitge Hospital this Monday afternoon after suffering a heart attack. The general secretary of Together for Catalonia (Junts) had been holding meetings around Catalonia this morning in relation to his party work and was in Sant Feliu de Llobregat, near Barcelona, when he felt unwell. A catheterization was performed at the hospital, ElNacional.cat can report. He was later transferred to the Intensive Care Unit after the operation went well. Junts has reported that their general secretary is “stable beginning his recovery”. Turull, 57 years old, has been general secretary of Junts since June 2022.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
One Bank Asks “Could A Central Bank Somewhere Be Buying Crypto Assets?”
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAR 04, 2024 – 05:40 PM
By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank
We’re going to build a (tariff) wall…
Crude oil prices spiked on Friday evening following news that OPEC+ and Russia will extend production cuts through to June of this year. Brent closed 2% higher at $83.55/bbl, which means that prices have now risen by more than $6/bbl since the start of the year. Gold also caught a bid on Friday night to close the week at $2,082/ounce. This followed weaker than expected ISM survey data out on the United States that saw 2-year yields fall 9bps to 4.53% and the S&P500 hit fresh all-time-highs. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin surge continues apace after prices for ‘digital gold’ finished the week slightly above $62,500.
Judging from the price action last week, the everything rally remains resilient to the effects of monetary tightening. Have we sprung a monetary leak somewhere that is providing mysterious liquidity into markets? Or is this all just a huge lag effect as the Covid-era torrents of easy money continue to wash through the economy and the US deficit remains close to 6.5% of GDP?
Whatever the case, some of the moves are very interesting. News has emerged of a crypto whale dubbed ‘Mr 100’ who has been quietly accumulating a $3.1bn stash of Bitcoin. Decrypt.co reports that the mysterious whale is unlikely to be US-domiciled, and unlikely to be one of the new Bitcoin ETF operators since those have already disclosed their blockchain addresses. Could a central bank somewhere be buying crypto assets?
There is plenty on the calendar this week for markets to digest, but of particular interest is the National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The meeting begins on Tuesday and will include an updated growth target for the Chinese economy. Last year’s ‘modest’ 5% target was exceeded by two-tenths of a percentage point after helpful base effects and data revisions helped the economy over the line. The speculation is that the CCP will again set 5% as the official goal, although our own China watcher, Teeuwe Mevissen, expects growth of just 4.6% in the Middle Kingdom this year.
In the United States we have the non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week, but on a longer view the possibility of universal tariffs will have much more structural bearing on who produces what and where, and for how much, and to be sold to who. This Daily last week canvased the possibility of outright bans on Chinese auto imports into the United States as the Biden White House attempts to outbid Donald Trump on America First protectionism. Trump’s threats of 10% universal tariffs, with tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods, would be certainly be a big structural change that, in our view, could reignite inflation. It also (by design) poses risks to the Chinese growth model.
With real-estate and infrastructure investment already reeling from heavy debt loads, a loss of confidence and Xi Xinping’s Common Prosperity initiatives to rein-in speculation on house prices, the China model will be even more reliant on production and exports. It’s worth asking the question whether that can still work in a world where the world’s biggest market is potentially slapping a 60% tax on your exports. Of course, Chinese goods could flow into other markets like Europe, but if the Trump tariffs are enacted it would take all of 5 minutes before European leaders follow suit in an effort to protect their own sputtering industry from Chinese competition.
So where does this leave China? The worst case would be massive oversupply, deflation and economic depression as China fails to escape the Middle Income Trap. The alternative might be economic reorganization away from a production-led economy toward a more balanced growth model that emphasises internal consumption. Such a reorganization would also start to address one of the major (but not the only) impediment to the adoption of CNY as a reserve currency: China’s enormous trade surplus, but it would stand at odds with Xi Xinping thought that sees consumerism as decadent and production as virtuous. That’s a vicious circle to square, but if it is to ever happen, we should expect to see early signs this week.
This week will be important for other reasons. We are now one week out from the date at which the Fed will cease issuing new loans under the BTFP program. Regular readers will remember that this was the liquidity facility put in place during the mini banking crisis last year. Under the terms of the program, the Fed accepts collateral from the banking system while paying out the par value (!) of the securities in cash. Questions remain over what will happen to US regional banks with a large share of commercial real estate loans on the balance sheet (many due for refinance shortly!) once the banking system can no longer pretend that those loans are not underwater.
It may be the case that the Fed had hoped that they would be cutting rates by now and the capitalisation rates on commercial real estate would look less bad as a result. Unfortunately, last week’s PCE data did little too further the case for imminent cuts. PCE rose by 0.3% in January, but if you move the decimal a couple of places it becomes obvious how close we came to a 0.4% reading instead. One Swallow does not make a summer, but the January PCE result marks a substantial acceleration compared to December, November and October. That’s despite being helped by lower fuel prices that are unlikely to be replicated in February. The +0.4% core reading was the highest since January of last year, and the +0.6% services ex housing and energy reading was the highest since December of 2021.
In Europe last week the inflation story was similar. Eurozone preliminary CPI for February rose at the fastest pace since April last year. It was up 0.6% m-o-m, which translates to a 2.6% y-o-y figure. That was a little below the 2.8% figure for January but higher than the consensus estimate of 2.5%. The core reading printed at 3.1% versus an analyst consensus of 2.9%. So the direction is right, but progress is slow, and as our Head of Macro Research, Elwin de Groot, pointed out in a piece last week, the Red Sea shipping disruptions could pose a substantial upside risk to Eurozone price pressures.
So, for the moment at least we have encountered a bump in the road back to low and stable inflation. Central banks ought to be cognizant of the risks in cutting rates while loads of asset classes are already making new highs every other day, and the spectre of geopolitics looms as a potential spoiler for markets that think only in terms of free-flowing trade and capital. In a world of rapid change, the ability to think outside accepted paradigms is becoming more and more important.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0848 DOWN .0006
USA/ YEN 150.41 DOWN 0.044 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2681 DOWN .0008
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3595 UP .0020 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 20 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.49 PTS OR 0.28%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 433.33 POINTS OR 2.61%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.10% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 433.33 PTS OR 2.61%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.49 PTS OR 0.28%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.10%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 11.60 PTS OR 0.03%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2123.30
silver:$23.97
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.86 UP 8 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1965
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2113)
TURKISH LIRA: 31.62 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.693…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.148% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.283 DOWN 7 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.560 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;30 AM 2127.50
SILVER AT 10;30: 23.76
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 5.83 PTS OR 0.08%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 22.66 PTS OR 0.13%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 25.19 PTS OR 0.32%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 43.40 PTS OR 0.43%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 218.47 PTS OR 0.68%
WTI Oil price 78.87 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 82.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.52; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 73//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3200 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0490 DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0850 DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2694 UP .0008 or 8 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0410 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.697%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.92 DOWN 0.535//YEN UP 54 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3597 UP .0022 CDN dollar DOWN 22 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.16
Brent OIL: 82.00
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS pts to 4.133%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.273%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 8 PTS AT 4.512%
USA dollar index: 103.77 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.59 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.52 UP 0 AND 73/100 roubles
GOLD 2130,10 3:30 PM
SILVER: 23.69 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 403.07 PTS OR 1.03%
NASDAQ DOWN 328.62 PTS OR 1.80%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.87 UP 1.38 PTS OR 10.23%
GLD: $197.19 UP 1.18 OR 0.60%
SLV/ $21.66 down .20 OR 0.91%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin & Bullion Hit Record Highs As “FOMO, YOLO, MOMO Stocks” Slump
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 04:00 PM
The big headlines for today were good (Gold bulls happy as the barbarous relic hit record highs), bad (bitcoin bulls happy then sad as the cryptocurrency broke to record highs and was then clubbed like baby seal), and ugly (Nasdaq – and MAG7 stocks – suffered their worst day since October).
Investors also faced a slew of disappointing macro releases which may be weighing on the goldilocks growth sentiment at the margin, with ISM services printing weaker than expected and factory orders plunging…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes that the pullback in secular growers is driving a broader risk-off sentiment and likely even weighing on rates as 10-year US Treasury yields are down ~8bps (short-end down around 5bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
All the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks are trading 2% lower (finding support at the up-trendline)…
Source: Bloomberg
As AAPL fell faster than a Vision-Pro off your forehead…
Source: Bloomberg
…now trading over 7.5% below its 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
…and even GLP1-exposed names are seeing some selling pressure on the day….
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs trader Bobby Molavi summed things up well for stocks:
“It feels very much like a fomo…yolo…and momo market.
Still like the quote…’long, staying long, but slightly uncomfortable’ as the best way to describe how many investors feel at the moment.”
He also added on ‘positioning’ (which is extremely long), that “Not a problem unless it becomes a problem.”
Today’s 2%-plus tumble in Nasdaq was the worst day for the meg-tech index since October 2023 and makes some wonder if ‘positioning is suddenly becoming a problem’. A small late-day bounce put a little lipstick on this pig
The sudden resurgence of fear prompted a decent spike in VIX, back above 15…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged up to a new record high this morning…
Source: Bloomberg
…, but then the stops were run and the algos monkey-hammered the cryptocurrency $8500 from its highs before some buying returned…
Source: Bloomberg
BTC ETFs saw a record volume day (with major volume in BITO)…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum followed a very similar trajectory, rallying up to $3825 at its highs before puking back down to $32,00 and catching a bid…
Source: Bloomberg
And then there’s gold…
The spot price of the precious metal rose for the 5th straight day, taking out the prior record spike high on Dec 4th…
Source: Bloomberg
Pushing the yellow metal to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
What is gold pricing in about future Fed action? Real rates dramatically negative? As Luke Gromen noted on X:
“When gold rises in your currency DESPITE positive real rates, the gold market is saying ‘Your government will have a debt spiral if real rates remain positive’.“
Source: Bloomberg
Silver closed lower on the day, after three big days topping $24…
Source: Bloomberg
With silver looking positively cheap here with gold trading at 90x…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices traded in a choppy range today but closed lower ahead of tonight’s API data…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, there’s Nvidia, which has stalled the last two days…
We hand the commentary back to Goldman’s Molavi for his take: “A company now worth more than AT&T, Boeing, Coca-cola, Disney, Fedex, Gen motors, IBM, MCdonalds, Nike, Starbucks, UPS and Wallmart…..COMBINED.
A company with 75% margins and 75% market share.
A company that in spite of its rally trades at 33.4x forward PE for the 4th lowest multiple of the Mag 7.
One word of caution, if you plot Nvidia on a chart 2020 to today vs Cisco 1996 to 2002…and then zoom in at the year 2000…you see eerily similar graphs…“
Source: Bloomberg
“Cisco then was the belle of the ball and internet was the new new thing. At the moment in time…the prevailing thinking was that the whole internet would run on Cisco routers at 50% gross margins. Until it didn’t. “
But, it’s different this time, durr!
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
US Services Surveys Signal Stagflation In Feb: Higher Prices, Slower Growth
S&P Global’s Services PMI fell from 52.5 in January to 52.3 (final) in February, but we note that is up from the 51.3 preliminary print in early Feb.
ISM’s Services survey also fell from 53.4 in January to 52.6 in Feb, below the 53.0 expectations.
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, ISM’s survey saw employment fall back into contraction at 48.0.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“A further robust expansion of service sector activity in February follows news of faster manufacturing output growth. The goods and services producing sectors are collectively reporting the sharpest growth since last June, hinting at a further quarter of solid GDP growth.
“The acceleration occurred despite a cooling of growth in financial services, linked to the recent pull-back in rate cut expectations. Demand for consumer goods and services has, however, picked up further in February amid the easing of the cost of living crisis and healthy labor market conditions, meaning consumers are once again at the forefront of the economic expansion. “
However, it’s not all rainbows and soft-landing unicorns
“A concern is that alongside this faster growth, the survey has seen price pressures revive.
Although average prices are still rising at one of the slowest rates seen over the past four years, the rate of inflation picked up for goods and services alike in February to hint at some broad-based firming of price pressures that could worry policymakers about cutting interest rates too early.”
So, to summarize, slower growth in services, mixed manufacturing, and higher prices in both… paging Mr. Powell.
END
Boeing, Boeing, Gone: US Factory Orders Plunge Most Since COVID Lockdowns In January
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 01:00 PM
US factory orders crashed 3.6% MoM in January, notably worse than the 2.9% MoM decline expected and worse still that December’s 0.2% MoM rise was revised to a 0.3% decline. This didappointment pulled orders down 2.0% YoY – the worst annual decline since Sept 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
And on a core (ex-transports) basis, orders also disappointed, down 0.8% MoM (vs -0.1% MoM exp), dragging the core orders down 1.6% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
January saw the biggest plunge in non-defense aircraft & parts (Boeing) since April 2019 (but we’re building lots of boats)…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly January also saw a surge in metalworking machinery manufacturing while ferrous metal foundries orders crashed…
Source: Bloomberg
But we can thank the good old Military Industrial Complex for orders not being more of a shitshow as Defense spending jumped 24% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, it’s that same old issue again… downward revisions!! In the last 21 months, US factory orders have been downwardly revised 16 times…
Source: Bloomberg
Bidenomics – make it up as you go along – continues.
END
TUCKER CARLSON….
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
She was really bad. Good riddance to her.
(zerohedge)
Victoria Nuland Leaving Post While Ukraine On The Ropes, US Policy In Shambles
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 12:20 PM
Ukraine forces are in retreat and the war is going badly from NATO’s perspective, Biden’s $60+ billion for Kiev is halted in the House, and the Democratic incumbent’s reelection chances are looking grim in November. And as if confirming there’s no light at the end of the tunnel, Victoria Nuland is stepping down as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs of the United States.
The State Department announced Tuesday morning she is retiring. The Associated Press announcement interestingly enough underscores her hawkish legacy on Russia and Ukraine. “Victoria Nuland, the third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine, will leave her post this month, the State Department said Tuesday,” it wrote.
Her boss Antony Blinken said something a bit ironic on the occasion of unveiling her departure: “But it’s Toria’s leadership on Ukraine that diplomats and students of foreign policy will study for years to come.”
Indeed, many already know her as Victoria-‘Fuck the EU’-Nuland and for essentially running foreign policy in Europe, stretching back through the Obama years as then Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, where many of the problems which sparked the disastrous and tragic Russia-Ukraine war were first set in motion.
According to more praise from Secretary Blinken:
“Her efforts have been indispensable to confronting Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marshaling a global coalition to ensure his strategic failure, and helping Ukraine work toward the day when it will be able to stand strongly on its own feet – democratically, economically, and militarily.”
Of course, Blinken’s boldly declaring Russia’s “strategic failure” seems a bit forced and premature (to put it mildly), considering too that even from a propaganda angle leading NATO countries are currently very much on the defensive. Things simply aren’t going well in NATO-land, by many accounts.
Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the Ukraine war through a long-range missile exchange. While it should sustain its logistical support for Ukrainian forces, it has no strategic interest in Kyiv’s desire to drive Russia out of the majority Russian-speaking areas of Crimea or Donbas. It has every interest in assiduously seeking an early settlement and starting the rebuilding of Ukraine.
As for the west’s “soft power” sanctions on Russia, they have failed miserably, disrupting the global trading economy in the process. Sanctions may be beloved of western diplomats and thinktanks. They may even hurt someone – not least Britain’s energy users – but they have not devastated the Russian economy or changed Putin’s mind. This year Russia’s growth rate is expected to exceed Britain’s.
The crass ineptitude of a quarter of a century of western military interventions should have taught us some lessons. Apparently not.
Just over a week ago, she was talking about “tightening the noose” around Putin to CNN…
…But it appears she’ll never get the chance while in top State Dept office.
The Washington Post meanwhile recalls a particularly funny past moment and Russia’s reaction which centered on Nuland:
Former Secretary of State John Kerry has recalled on numerous times that when Nuland left the spokeswoman’s job during his tenure to become the top diplomat for Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov congratulated him for “getting rid of that woman.” Kerry said he replied to Lavrov that he didn’t get rid of her, “I promoted her.”
Current Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised Nuland for her three and a half decades of public service and thanked her for her role in shaping U.S. policy around the world under six presidents and 10 secretaries of state.
At this point we might say she’s wisely choosing to “quit while ahead”… but the reality of her disastrous interventionist policies in Eastern Europe is something more like quitting while you’re behind.
Nuland’s temporary replacement for under secretary upon her retirement has been announced as career diplomat John Bass, a former ambassador to Afghanistan. He is currently in the position of the undersecretary of state for management.
* * *
Nuland has had a lot of “quiet part out loud” deep state admission moments over the years…
Recall too that she ran point for Obama’s regime change “democracy promotion” efforts in Ukraine. In 2014 leaked audio clip posted to YouTube caused deep embarrassment for the State Department amid accusations the US was coordinating coup efforts using the ongoing “Maidan Revolution” to oust then President Viktor Yanukovych.
In that leaked phone call Nuland told US ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt “F*ck the EU” – for which she was later forced to apologize. Here’s some of the audio for a little trip down memory lane:
She had also been instrumental in her prior postings at the State Department in Obama’s disastrous Libya intervention. During her initial ‘retirement’ during the Trump years, she had been part of various think tanks, including the hawkish Brookings Institution, where she was a fierce critic of Trump’s supposed “appeasement” of Putin. She’s also long argued for deeper military intervention in Syria.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
“We can bear neither our diseases nor their remedies.”
So shrugged the ancient historian Livy (59 B.C.- A.D. 17) of the long decline of Roman national character that, in his age, finally ended the Roman Republic.
Like a patient whose medicine proves worse than the disease, Livy lamented that the Romans knew that they had become corrupt and lawless.
But the very contemplation of the hard medicine needed for restoration – and the furious reaction that would meet the remedy – made it impossible to save the patient.
America is nearing such an impasse.
We know that no state can long exist after opening its borders to over 7 million illegal aliens, requiring neither background checks nor legality.
The recent murder of a Georgia female jogger by an illegal alien and the savage beating of New York policemen by similar others hardly merit media attention.
Everyone knows that neither new appropriations nor new laws are needed to secure the border as it was in 2020.
Instead, we could just stop suicidal catch-and-release, deport lawbreakers, privilege the legal over the illegal immigrant, demand would-be refugees apply for asylum first in their native countries, finish the border wall, and pressure Mexico to stop undermining the territorial integrity of its northern neighbor.
But then we shrug, “We can’t do that”—paralyzed in fear of being smeared as “xenophobic,” “nativist,” or “racist.”
So this generation apparently feels that it can endure the collateral damage of daily assaults on American citizens, the near bankruptcy of our cities, and 100,000 fentanyl deaths per year—but certainly not the idea that it is somehow not politically correct or compassionate.
The same is true of the $35 trillion debt, now costing more than $1 trillion a year in interest payments—and growing. We all know it is unsustainable. Americans understand it will eventually lead either to destructive hyperinflation, suicidal renunciation of federal debt, or confiscation of private savings.
Yet we ignore the reckless spending and keep borrowing well over $1 trillion a year.
Apparently, our generation prefers being praised as “virtuous” and “caring.” So it leaves the next generation to be smeared as “cruel” and “unfair” when it is forced to cut federal entitlements and bloated government or face civilizational collapse.
The crime epidemic is also similar. Everyone accepts that no society can long endure quasi-legalized shoplifting or green-lighting smash-and-grabbers and carjackers to be released without bail.
But we assume that such a civilizational implosion will never reach our own sanctuary neighborhoods or safe places of work—at least not yet.
We also know that restoring deterrence by arresting, convicting, and jailing repeat felons will return safety to our streets.
But again, we fear even more that advocating “law and order” will earn slanders like “racist” or “reactionary.”
Ditto the homeless. In an age of self-congratulation and hyper-environmentalism, we know that a million homeless defecating, urinating, injecting, and assaulting on our downtown sidewalks and storefronts is medieval.
We know that it is illegal to camp out on the street and publicly harass citizens or relieve oneself in public.
And we know the cure lies in building and staffing more mental institutions and providing areas far from public spaces where the homeless can find shelter, sanitation, and medical care.
But the very idea of removing anyone from his accustomed sidewalk spot, or the notion of the use of force to transport the mentally ill to proper and humane facilities, terrifies us.
So we walk around, step over, and ignore those on the street.
Is the assumption that the odds of being assaulted or sickened acceptable? Or do we just not wish to learn where the flotsam, jetsam, and human offal of the street end up?
Most accept that had Donald Trump just not run for president in 2024 or was a man of the left, he would not now be facing four different felony court cases.
Most accept that three of the four prosecutors have either in advance promised to get Trump or have proved grossly unethical.
Most know it is wrong to try to remove a leading presidential candidate from state ballots.
Yet many shrug that this new weaponization of America’s legal system is the flamboyant Trump’s own problem, not their own.
So they ignore the third worldization of our political system, which they quietly acknowledge is otherwise leading us to a Venezuela-like mess.
The paralysis of American society extends to our foreign policy as well. We deplore the terrorism of Iran and its thuggish surrogates. But we fear more the nasty, costly business of stopping its aggression.
Societies do not always collapse from a lack of wealth, invasion, or natural catastrophes.
Most often, they know what is destroying them. But they are so paralyzed by their fear that the road to salvation becomes too painful to even contemplate.
So they implode gradually, then suddenly
END
SWAMP STORIES
WHAT!!!
“Treason!”: Bombshell Report Reveals Biden Has Secretly Flown 320,000 Illegals INTO The United States
TUESDAY, MAR 05, 2024 – 11:40 AM
A Freedom of Information Act lawsuit has revealed that the Biden administration has flown at least 320,000 migrants into the United States in an effort to reduce the number of crossings at the southern border, according to Todd Bensman of the Center for Immigration Studies.
“The program at the center of the FOIA litigation is perhaps the most enigmatic and least-known of the Biden administration’s uses of the CBP One cellphone scheduling app, even though it is responsible for almost invisibly importing by air 320,000 aliens with no legal right to enter the United States since it got underway in late 2022,” wrote Bensman.
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had initially refused to disclose information about the flights, which use a cell phone app, CBP One, to arrange.
“Under these legally dubious parole programs, aliens who cannot legally enter the country use the CBP One app to apply for travel authorization and temporary humanitarian release from those airports. The parole program allows for two-year periods of legal status during which adults are eligible for work authorization,” Bensman continues.
The flights resulted in illegal immigrants being placed in at least 43 American cities from January through December 2023.
Under the terms of their release, migrants are able to remain in the US for two years without obtaining legal status, and are meanwhile eligible for work authorization.
The Biden administration initially refused to disclose which airports undocumented aliens were being flown into, citing a ‘law enforcement exception,’ new information reveals that the government thought ‘bad actors’ might pose a safety risk or create law enforcement opportunities – with CBP lawyers writing that revealing the specific airports would “reveal information about the relative number of individuals arriving, and thus resources expended at particular airports.”
Treason indeed!
In response to the CIS report, Elon Musk wrote on X: “Treason indeed! Ushering in vast numbers of illegals is why Secretary Mayorkas was impeached by the House,” adding “They are importing voters. This is why groups on the far left fight so hard to stop voter ID requirements, under the absurd guise of protecting the right to vote.”
Treason indeed! Ushering in vast numbers of illegals is why Secretary Mayorkas was impeached by the House. They are importing voters. This is why groups on the far left fight so hard to stop voter ID requirements, under the absurd guise of protecting the right to vote.
Quote
Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
·
REPORT: Joe Biden has secretly flown 320,000 illegal immigrants from Latin American airports to 43 U.S. cities. Treason. It gets even worse. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection is refusing to identify which airports they are being shipped to. “The program at the center of…
Musk also suggested that the national security threat posed by the program makes it “highly probable that the groundwork is being laid for something far worse than 9/11.”
Treason indeed! Ushering in vast numbers of illegals is why Secretary Mayorkas was impeached by the House.
They are importing voters. This is why groups on the far left fight so hard to stop voter ID requirements, under the absurd guise of protecting the right to vote. https://t.co/WhtVFyS6sa
This administration is both importing voters and creating a national security threat from unvetted illegal immigrants. It is highly probable that the groundwork is being laid for something far worse than 9/11. Just a matter of time.
·
19.9M Views
Meanwhile, in 2022 it was revealed that the Biden administration was flying illegal immigrants all over the US on redeye flights, according to the NY Post (and noted by modernity.news)
KING REPORT//
he King Report March 5, 2024 Issue 7193
Independent View of the News
The Supreme Court unanimously (9-0) rejected Colorado’s bid to remove Trump from the primary ballot. “Responsibility for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates rests with Congress and not the states.”
The European Commission: Remarks by Executive Vice-President Vestager on the adoption of an antitrust decision against Apple over abusive App store rules for music streaming providers Today, the Commission has fined Apple €1.8 billion for abusing its dominant position on the market for the distribution of music streaming apps. Apple did so by restricting app developers’ ability to inform users of Apple devices about alternative, cheaper options to purchase music available on the internet outside of the Apple ecosystem… From now on, Apple will have to allow music streaming developers to communicate freely with their own users, be it within the app, or by email, or any other way of communicating… https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_24_1309
ESHs traded moderately lower, but largely sideways, from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower near 6 ET. After a modest rally, ESHs turned lower near 8 ET and hit a daily low of 5132.00 at 9:13 ET. ESHs then zigzagged higher until they hit a daily high of 5147.25 at 12:39 ET.
After a decline to 5138.75 at 13:22 ET, the afternoon rally commenced. Someone manipulated ESHs from 5144.75 at 14:29 ET to 5156.25 at 14:40 ET. ESHs then went inert until they inched to a new high of 5157.75 at 15:16 ET. ESHs then plunged to 5137.00 at 15:49 ET and fell to 5136.50 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Yet another afternoon rally appeared after a down morning. Gasoline and oil declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session Bitcoin (+7.1% at high) and gold (+1.5% at high) rallied sharply; gold had an all-time high close Gonds declined moderately Last-hour collapse, indicates traders are too jiggy and buyers are exhausted
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Stocks are tired; how much higher will the rally go? The S&P 500 Index traded with a 12-handle range until the manipulation at 13:29 ET appeared
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5135.93 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5149.67; 5127.18
Today – The Monday Rally didn’t appear; stocks are tired and extremely overbought. The focus of speculators has turned to cyber currencies as AI euphoria ebbs. The last-hour collapse of ESHs and stocks indicates that it’s time for stocks to retrench. How can the Fed cut rates with gold near an all-time high and cyber currencies bubbling up?
Trading could be lame as traders await Powell’s testimony at Capitol Hill tomorrow and on Thursday.
Expected Economic Data: Feb S&P Global US Services PMI 51.4, Composite PMI 51.4; Feb ISM Services Index 53; Jan Factory Orders -2.9% m/m, ex-Trans -0.1%; Jan Durable Goods -6.1% m/m
Fed Speakers: VCEO for Supervision Barr 12:00 ET on CRA Modernization
It’s Super Tuesday; 16 states hold primaries. On Thursday, The Big Guy will give a SOTU speech.
ESUs are -6.75; NQHs are -39.00; USHs are +2/32; and Bitcoin is 68,450 at 20:15 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4894; 100-day MA: 4670; 150-day MA: 4587; 200-day MA: 4533 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,160; 100-day MA: 36,466; 150-day MA: 35,803, 200-day MA: 35,369 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5130.95) – Trender BBG trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4455.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4860.59 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5011.41 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5121.17 triggers a sell signal
Ex-Jim Biden business partner disputes loan testimony before Congress – A fund manager says a “private” third party, which he declined to name, assumed debts of Jim Biden’s company. Biden told congressional investigators that fund manager Michael Lewitt forgave $225,000 in loans to Biden’s firm, according to a transcript of his Feb. 21 testimony released Friday. But Lewitt, who previously worked with Jim Biden to finance a hospital chain, told POLITICO that he did not forgive the loans. Instead, he said, a third party, which he declined to name, assumed Jim Biden’s debt. Lewitt said he believes the loan assumption occurred in early 2020. Lewitt’s statements imply that Jim Biden’s company received a six-figure bailout from anunnamed benefactor while his brother was running for president… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/01/jim-biden-loan-testimony-00144506
(#2 Senate Dem) Dick Durbin torches Supreme Court for taking up Trump’s immunity case “I think that is a disappointment. I think the court has acted quickly in the past when they realized that the presidential timetable was at risk. I’m really concerned with what they’ve done,” Durbin told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday… https://t.co/PPj3iBy69M
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: It’s disgraceful that Biden’s entire re-election strategy is based on his Department of Justice locking up his opponent. This is more appropriate in a banana republic than in America.
@WNYC: More people have been murdered in New York City’s subwayssince the start of 2020 than in the preceding 15 years — a grim statistic driven by an alarming start to the year in the mass transit system. https://t.co/Yn81Elx4wY
@ChuckCallesto: SHOCK VIDEO: Home security camera captures GREEN LASER LIKE IMAGES coming from the sky during thunder storm. https://t.co/fbL5XTRIoL
BREAKING: TESLA’S BERLIN GIGAFACTORY TARGETED BY ECO ARSONISTS Eco protesters set fire to a nearby transformer, causing the plant to lose power and bringing production to a standstill. Police found a bomb warning attached to a protester’s tent next to the burning…
harveyorganblog.com 
