GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $7.20 TO $2157.90
SILVER PRICE up 8 cents TO $24.37
Gold ACCESS CLOSED 2158.40
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: 24,32
This is the 6th straight day for gold to rise in price. This never happens as our bankers for years have controlled the price. Rarely do you see it rise for two consecutive days. .
Bitcoin morning price:$66,754 DOWN 443 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $67,785 UP 558 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $9.10 AT $920.60
Palladium price; DOWN 3.00 AT $1037.50
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 24 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,905.17 UP $4.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,905.17CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MARCH 7 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1684.85 UP 0.20 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1684.85 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) MARCH 7/2024
*EURO GOLD: 1971.42 UP 1.38 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1971.42 EUROS PER OZ//MARCH 7.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET:
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,150.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/06/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 03/08/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 4
190 H BMO CAPITAL 242
323 C HSBC 15
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 30
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 179
690 C ABN AMRO 1
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 11 15
905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 257 257
MONTH TO DATE: 2,241
JPMorgan stopped 179/257 contracts.
FOR MARCH/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2024. CONTRACT: 257 NOTICES FOR 25700 OZ or 0.7993 TONNES
total notices so far: 2241 contracts for 224,100 Oz (6.970 tonnes)
FOR MARCH:
SILVER NOTICES: 271 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,355,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4575 for 22,875,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $7.20// (makes sense)
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.26 TONNES AFTER 6 STRAIGHT DAYS OF GOLD INCREASES..?????
INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 8 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV….
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 424.818 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 718 CONTRACTS TO 142,195 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $0.52 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN MAJOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE STRONG PRICE RISE. WE HAD A HUGE 773 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 773 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.52),AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2513 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. IT OCCURRED WITH A MUCH HIGHER PRICE OF 52 CENTS PER OZ OF SILVER.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1795 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.270 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY,S 0.320 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS INCREASES TO : 25.265 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 25.265 MILLION OZ
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 773 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 451 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MARCH
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 7248 contracts: OR 36.240 MILLION OZ (1450 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 36.240 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 36.24 MILLION OZ//WILL BE MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH//MAYBE CLOSE TO A RECORD ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 718 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1795 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH. OF 23.385 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.320 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 25.265 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 2513 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 773 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS ( WITH PRICE OF SILVER RISING) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (773) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 271 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR .7993 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,716 CONTRACTS TO 487,332 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 213 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 15,716 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR STRONG $17.20 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH. AT 10.270 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 33,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW TOTAL Of INITIAL GOLD STANDING RISES TO: 12.202 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $17.20 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 23,247 OI CONTRACTS (72.31) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7531 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,332
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,247 CONTRACTS WITH 15,716 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 7531 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,247 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): STRONG SIZED 4504 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7531 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (15,716) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 23,247 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 7.502 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 1.054 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.202 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4504 CONTRACTS//HUGE SHORT COVERING AGAIN
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MARCH
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 35,029 CONTRACTS OR 3,502,900 OZ OR 108,95 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7,005 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 85.530 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 108.95/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 108.95 TONNES//THIS IS GOING TO BE ONE HUMDINGER OF AN E,F,P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 718 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,744 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1169 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1169 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1169 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1169 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1169 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2513 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 142.565 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $.52 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 PTS OR 0.41% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 208.31 PTS OR 1.27% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 492.07 PTS OR 1.23%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.46% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1968 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2066 /Oil UP TO 78.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.51/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,716 CONTRACTS TO 487,332 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.20 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. MOST LIKELY IT WAS THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER WITH OUR SHORT PLAYERS EXITING AS FAST AS THEIR FEET COULD CARRY THEM. THE SHORTS HAVE BEEN KILLED SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THEM WOULD DARE INTO THIS ARENA ESPECIALLY WITH CENTRAL BANKERS BUYING PHYSICAL GOLD ADDING TO THEIR OFFICIAL TOTALS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 7531 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 7531 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7531 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 23,247 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7531 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 15,716 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.20 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 4504 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MARCH (12.202 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 12.202 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $17.20 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 23,247 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HIGHER PRICE. WE HAD TO HAVE HAD ANOTHER HUGE EPISODE OF STRONG SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 72.31 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MARCH. (10.3576 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER 33,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 12.202 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.20
WE HAD -REMOVED 213 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 23,247 CONTRACTS OR 2,324,700 OZ OR 72.31 TONNES.
estimated volume today 271,198 fair to good
final gold volumes/yesterday 358,421 huge
//speculators have left the gold arena
MARCH 7/ INITIAL MARCH GOLD
/ /// THE MARCH 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 257 notice(s) 25700 OZ 0.7993 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1682 contracts 168,200 oz 5.2317 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2241 notices 224,100 oz 6.970 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
i
total withdrawal: NIL oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total deposit NIL oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1939 contracts having GAINED 125 contracts. We had 214 contracts filed upon on Wednesday, so we gained a monstrous 339 contracts or an additional 33,900 oz of gold(1.054 tonnes) will stand at the comex in this non active delivery month of March
APRIL GAINED 5727 CONTRACTS RISING TO 336,185.
MAY EARNED 52 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 240
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 9662 CONTRACTS UP TO 97,709 CONTRACTS.
We had 257 contracts filed for today representing 25,700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 257 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 179 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2241 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (1939 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 257 x 100 oz per contract equals 392,300 OZ OR 12.202TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH. contract month: No of notices filed so far (2241) x 100 oz + (1939) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (257) x 100 oz which equals 392,300 oz (12.202 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH: 12,202 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,342,811.142 41,76 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,093,353.015 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,944,151,441 (247.09 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,203,680,253 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,601,340 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 205.32 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MARCH 7/INITIAL
//2024// THE MARCH 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 105,931.034 oz cnt . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 596,950.540 oz Brinks |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 271 CONTRACT(S) (1,355,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 478 contracts (2.390 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 4575 Contracts (22.875 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit:
nil
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks: 596,950.540 oz
total customer deposits 596,950.540 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/284.271 million or 45.74%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) CNT: 105,931.034 oz
total withdrawal: 105,931.034 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 50.025MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 284.271million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2023 OI: 749 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 70 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 134 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO GAINED 64 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 320,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 37 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 833
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 69 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,157.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 271 for 1.355 MILLION oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 85,279 strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 88,282 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4575 x 5,000 oz = 22,875,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (749) and the number of notices served upon today 271 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH/2024 contract month: 4575 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH. (749) – number of notices served upon today (271 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MARCH contract month equates to 25.265 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 25.265 million oz.
There are 50.025 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
MARCH 6 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 5 WITH GOLD UP $16.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 4 WITH GOLD UP $30.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.77 TONNES
MARCH 1 WITH GOLD UP $40.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB29/WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB27/WITH GOLD UP $4.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB23/WITH GOLD UP $17 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB22/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.82 TONNES
FEB21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 29.82 TONNES
FEB20/WITH GOLD UP $16.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.89 TONNES
FEB16/WITH GOLD UP $8,60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.31 TONNES
FEB15/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 817.44 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /NVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 424.818 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Ron Paul: Fed’s “Dollar Destruction” And Moral Crisis
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 02:45 PM
Ron Paul’s recent op-ed from the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, reprinted in the Orange County Register, breaks down the profound damage caused by central bank money printing: it pits savers against speculators, encouraging consumers to use debt to fund basic needs since their savings are constantly evaporating due to monetary debasement.
The result? Ballooning consumer debt and over-dependence on credit cards, while saving for the future becomes a zero-sum game:
“…even though Americans’ nominal wages have increased, their real wages have declined as their dollars buy less.”
The Fed’s “dollar destruction,” as Paul calls it, is something that Americans are so accustomed to, that we’re addicted to it even as it hurts us. Without endless money printing, the welfare state and forever wars would no longer have financing — but with so many Americans addicted to cheap loans and widespread welfare programs, sound money would initially be rejected by many savers. Like a baby who is accustomed to eating a bag of candy every day, destroying its health, many would be enraged to discover their social “support” being taken away, even if it means securing some chance at prosperity for future generations in the form of gold-backed money.
This is how, as Gerald Celente puts it, “the fish rots from the head down.” Easy money fosters increasing dependence on handouts, and once this becomes the culturally accepted norm, it seems like a profound injustice when these handouts are taken away. Without proper education about sound money and the damaging effects of morally repugnant infinite central bank money printing, most people (welfare recipients or not) are blissfully unaware of the fact that their welfare programs were never affordable to begin with. Immoral leadership and monetary policy lead to an immoral mindset on the ground level, filtering down from the top and infecting every level of society like a virus.
This only guarantees even more struggle for future generations who get saddled with unsustainable debt, thereby further increasing their dependence on cheap credit and government welfare. But the inevitable end game for these experiments is total dollar collapse. When that happens, not only will the punch be taken away all at once, but the resulting economic implosion creates conditions for a tremendously violent and authoritarian society as plebeians fight for scraps and beg for a strong central government to save them from the problem that central banks created:
“…too many Americans at all levels of society (believe) that they have a right to government-provided economic security at the expense of their fellow citizens. This will result in violence and the growth of authoritarian political movements.”
However, there is hope. While an eventual implosion is inevitable, even for a country like the US which spreads its newly printed dollars around the world and exports inflation to other countries, a dollar collapse also provides the best opportunity yet for freedom lovers to hijack the cultural conversation and political capital from Keynesians.
From the ashes of fiat money, we will have a unique chance to create a new society where sound money policies have a better chance than ever to take political hold — and, slowly but surely, repair the moral fiber of a society destroyed by endless war and overstretched welfare that are only possible with infinite debt to fund them.
With all-time highs for gold, incoming interest rate cuts, and more war on the horizon, 2024-2025 could be the time when the fiat chickens finally come home to roost for good. But Paul ends the piece with this sliver of hope, imploring freedom lovers not to become too complacent or demoralized to continue the fight:
“We must continue our efforts to reach a critical mass of people with the message of liberty while making plans to ensure our families can take care of themselves when the next crash occurs.”
end
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/ SIMON WHITE..//ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
Chris Powell…the famous “Brown’s Bottom”
Why Britain is still paying the price for Gordon Brown’s gold bullion blunder
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-03-05 16:58 Section: Daily Dispatches
Nothing that seemed as stupid and sure to be as loss-making as the Bank of England’s gold sales that began in 1999 would have been undertaken unless it accomplished an important objective that couldn’t be admitted without causing financial turmoil and scandal.
That is, the Bank of England’s gold sales rescued the big UK and U.S. bullion banks from their uncoverable but central bank-instigated short positions as the gold market bounced off the bottom. Saving the banks was deemed necessary to protecting the world financial system.
Ever since the U.S. broke the longstanding link between the dollar and gold in 1971, the primary purpose of Western central banking has been to control the gold price largely surreptitiously, so as to prevent the return of the once and future world reserve currency and the reduction of government power that would result. It is all documented here —
— but the matter is so sensitive that it cannot be examined by mainstream financial news organizations, or even discussed in polite company. / cp
Yet the sale came at what turned out to be the very bottom of the gold market, ultimately costing the Exchequer billions of pounds in lost profits.
As the 25th anniversary of Mr Brown’s now infamous decision approaches, the price of gold on Monday hit a record high. Here, Telegraph Money looks at what went wrong and what it meant for the UK in the long run.
… Build-up
In 1999, gold was increasingly being seen as a “barbarous relic,” as the economist John Maynard Keynes had described the metal in 1924. The asset had been experiencing a two-decade bear market, having lost 80% of its real worth from a peak in 1980. The low price meant a number of central banks around the world were looking to offload some of their gold.
The metal is ultimately held by central banks as a safe haven that can be called upon as a last resort in times of emergency, seen as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation and fiscal turmoil.
In this scenario, Mr Brown was not out of step with other nations for wanting to sell some of the UK’s 715 tonnes of gold, which was owned by the Treasury and managed by the Bank of England. The plan to convert the proceeds into foreign currencies of 40% US dollars, 40% euros, and 20% yen would also bear interest for the government, unlike gold.
But the timing of the sale, and the way it was announced, would go on to cause ripples still felt today.
… The announcement
The offloading of gold reserves by other central banks up to 1999 had frequently mostly been done quietly on the global markets, only after which details of the sale would be announced. Yet in the UK, the Government publicly announced in May — via a written question in the House of Commons — that it would be holding a series of auctions for 125 tonnes of its gold reserves, starting in July that year, with an eventual plan to sell 415 tonnes by 2002.
The Treasury said it wanted to “achieve a better balance in the portfolio” by increasing the proportion of its reserves held in foreign currencies. Gold made up around 50% of the UK’s foreign currency net reserves — $6.5 billion (L5.1 billion) out of $13 billion — and this exposure to one single asset, whose price was often volatile and earned no interest, was too great, the Treasury argued.
The announcement stunned the markets, however. Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, an online investment gold service, said: “It landed like a bombshell. I don’t think the Treasury expected it to make as much noise as it did. It was so cack-handed how they handled it.”
Britain’s top gold traders had only been told earlier that day about the planned sale at a meeting at the Bank of England and were shocked by the news. They explained to Bank officials that gold prices tend to move in decades-long cycles, with the price probably near its bottom and likely to increase in the coming years.
They also warned that revealing the timings and amounts for sale so far in advance would cause traders to short the asset — betting on the price of gold falling — which would drive gold down further.
“The timing of the decision was ludicrous. We told them, ‘You are going to push the gold price down before you sell,'” Peter Fava, then head of precious metal dealing at HSBC, told The Sunday Times in 2007. “We thought it was a disastrous decision; we couldn’t understand it.”
Sure enough, the price of gold, which was $282.40 an ounce on the day of the sale’s announcement, had fallen 1%c by the time of the first auction in July. “It was done in a fairly clunky way,” Philip Shaw, chief UK economist at Investec, said of the Government’s announcement. “It probably didn’t do the UK’s standing in international markets much good.”
The government said a secret sale would have eventually leaked out and provoked rumours that would have pushed the price down further. The announcement of a series of auctions, rather than selling gold through the normal twice-daily price fix, would also increase the number of prospective buyers who could bid “with greater confidence about future supply,” the Government argued.
… The sale
Eventually, 395 tonnes of gold were sold by the Bank of England on the Treasury’s behalf; the price ranged between $256 and $296 a troy ounce, with an average of $276, and made a total of $3.5bn.
Gold reached a record high of $2,083 a troy ounce on the London gold benchmark on March 4, having enjoyed a tremendous bull run over the past decade. In the spot market, gold reached an all-time high of $2,135 in December last year. The 395 tonnes sold off by the Treasury would now be worth $26.6bn for the UK.
The gold, in other words, was sold at a 20-year-low in the market, and this period has since been nicknamed “Brown’s Bottom” by traders.
One key reason that the sale price was so depressed was that the UK was considered symbolically and historically important in the gold market, with the Bank of England holding and helping to manage gold reserves for more than 40 central banks and monetary institutions at the time.
“For the UK to be selling, it was like, ‘oh wow, this stuff really is finished.’ So sentiment wise, it really did knock a hole in gold,” Mr Ash said.
The government’s handling of the sale was considered so poor that the backbench Conservative MP Peter Tapsell told the House of Commons in June 1999 that “conspiracy theories are widely circulating in the City” that “famous foreign finance houses” had taken out such dangerously large short positions on gold over the previous years that they needed their friends at the Treasury to kill any prospect of a price rise in the metal.
The Bank of England’s then Head of Foreign Exchange, Clifford Smout, denied any conspiracy “with persons known or unknown.” Mr Brown was also suspected of attempting to support the newly launched euro. This was also denied by the Bank of England, which described the idea as “conspiracy theory gone to extreme.”
… The immediate aftermath
The government’s announcement of the sale prompted other Western nations to publicly defend having the asset in their reserves. Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France at the time, said that France, Germany, Italy, and the US would not sell their gold. In the US, Alan Greenspan, the then chairman of the Federal Reserve, responded to the UK’s sale by saying: “Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.”
The poor handling of the sale also pushed European central banks to set some rules around gold sales. There was growing concern that uncoordinated sales and lending of gold by central banks were causing issues for the market and driving down prices.
As a result of this, 15 European central banks, including the Bank of England, agreed on 26 September 1999 to limit their sales to 400 tonnes annually over the next five years, and also to announce sales to the market beforehand. Crucially, the central banks also announced that they would not increase their lending above 2,119 tonnes currently out on lease.
The announcement caused a sharp spike in the price — with a two-week gain of 25% — as it had made gold trading more transparent and had removed uncertainty around the intentions of central banks’ sales.
… Effect on the UK
The sale of the gold was reinvested back in the UK’s reserves and so had no palpable effect on the UK consumer or economy as it was not used for public spending or to pay off debt.
Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “Although much is made of the squandering of a national asset, the main function of such reserve assets is more for precautionary reasons such as intervening to stop a currency crisis, than managing wealth on behalf of the country.”
He added that the need for governments to continue holding large gold reserves is “questionable.”
However, critics argue the poor sale damaged the UK’s reputation on a global stage. Ross Norman, chief executive of Metals Daily, a precious metals data provider, said: “The problem is, once you’ve consumed a significant part of our reserves, it’s very hard to rebuild. I think that damages the UK.”
The sale was also thought to be embarrassing for the Bank of England considering its eminent role in the bullion market, despite it not having control over the decision, which was made by the Treasury. There were press reports that Eddie George, then-governor of the Bank of England, had privately argued against the sale, saying it would erode the Bank’s power base in the City.
However, Mr George told a Select Treasury Committee in May 1999: “People get emotionally attached to gold and we have seen quite a lot of emotional reaction to that decision. However, as a portfolio decision, it is perfectly sensible” to sell the gold.
… Would there ever be another sale?
Whereas in the 1990s, central banks were trying to offload some of their gold, the reverse is true today. A number of central banks, especially those not aligned with the West, have been buying physical gold in record quantities over the past two years, as the pandemic, inflation and geopolitical tensions, such as war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict, boost its popularity as a safe haven.
Gold, if held in a nation’s own vaults, cannot be frozen or accessed by others. Other countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, such as China, which bought 225 tonnes of gold in 2023.
However, the likelihood of the UK either buying or selling more gold is virtually nil. Mr Norman added: “Selling any of its gold reserves at this stage would be regarded internationally as the UK being in absolute dire straits and would be most definitely counterproductive.”
Attempts to buy more gold would also appear that the UK is worried about the stability of the global financial market. “These guys will never say much or do anything with gold for at least another generation,” Mr Ash said. “Western central banks are still so paralysed by the PR disaster of their sales 20 years ago — it wasn’t just the UK by any stretch — that whatever they do with gold now would look ridiculous.”
… Lessons for consumers
Private investors should take Mr Brown’s poor sale as evidence that there is a danger of herd thinking in financial markets. Mr Ash said: “It felt like every major nation was selling gold, cutting their bullion holdings as the hype around tech stocks and Western triumphalism in geopolitics ushered in the 21st century. Yet since that gold price low for UK investors in 1999, physical bullion has beaten all UK asset classes hands down.”
The rise in gold prices has also shown the value of holding a little gold in a portfolio. Analysis by BullionVault shows that adding 10% to a portfolio otherwise split 60:40 between UK equities and bonds would have raised annualised returns from 5 to 5.6% across the past quarter century, and it would have boosted a private investor’s worst five-year returns of the last half-century (ending 2022) from 0.6c to 1.6% per year.
* * *
By Tom Knowles
The Telegraph, London
Monday, March 4, 2024
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/gold-hits-all-time-high-gordon-brown-blunder-cost
It has been considered one of the worst financial blunders the Government ever made. On May 7, 1999, the UK Treasury announced it would be selling over half of the nation’s gold reserves.
The move, made by then chancellor Gordon Brown, was done in a bid to diversify and strengthen Britain’s reserves by reducing the proportion held in gold
end
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS.
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1968
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2066
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 PPTS OR 0.41%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 208.31 PTS OR 1.27%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 492.07 PTS OR 1.23%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.17 EURO FALLS TO 1.0896 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.733 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.89/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP/ OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.2615***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.617* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.103…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.206
3j Gold at $2160.30 silver at: 24.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 18 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.78//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.89// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.733% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8793 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9564 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.090 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.220 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.556 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.84…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.0324
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Rise; Europe, Gold Hit All Time High; Yen Surges
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 08:11 AM
Ahead of Powell’s second day of testimony to lawmakers, US equity futures traded near session highs reversing earlier losses recorded during Asia session, when Japan’s Nikkei fell from all-time high on mounting expectations for a BoJ rate hike. As of 7:50am, S&P futures traded up 0.2% while Nasdaq futures rose 0.4%, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% to touch a new record. On Wednesday Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates but that it will likely be appropriate to begin lowering borrowing costs “at some point this year” which of course is not news but the market once again pretended to act surprised. The comment spurred a slide in yields and a jump in gold to a fresh record high during Asian trading hours. The Japanese yen was on course for its best day this year, rising 1% versus the greenback as speculation surged that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in March. Not only did the January wage data top expectations, but Japan’s biggest union federation has also demanded its biggest pay hike since 1993. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2%. The euro was little changed ahead of the ECB decision. Treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields at 4.10%. Oil prices declined, with WTI falling 0.7% to trade near $78.60. Spot gold rises 0.4%, having hit another record high in Asian trading hours. Bitcoin traded around $67,000 just shy of record highs.
In premarket trading, chipmakers’ shares advanced led by Micron Technology Inc. which surged more than 3% after receiving an upgrade from Stifel. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- ADT (ADT) falls 9% after an offering of 65m shares by a holder priced at $6.50 apiece, representing a ~13% discount to last close.
- Avangrid (AGR) gains 7% after its owner, Spanish utility Iberdrola, offered about $2.5 billion to buy all the shares it doesn’t already own in the US subsidiary.
- Bilibili (BILI) drops 7% after the Chinese video-streaming platform reported fourth-quarter average daily active users that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) slips less than 1% after Danish rival Novo Nordisk presented data showing its weight-loss drug amycretin helped patients in an early-stage clinical trial shed 13% of their weight in 12 weeks.
- Emergent Bio (EBS) sinks 16% after the company reported adjusted losses for the fourth quarter that were wider than analysts expected.
- Full Truck Alliance (YMM) ADRs gain 4% after the freight-dispatch platform reported fourth-quarter net revenue that beat estimates.
- Honest Co. (HNST) soars 26% after the personal-care company reported fourth-quarter revenue and net income that topped consensus estimates.
- Micron Technology (MU) rises 3% after Stifel raised its rating to buy, saying that average analyst estimates for 2025 are “wrong and too low” for the chipmaker.
- New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) falls 3% after the commercial real estate lender issued a statement to clarify and update certain details a day after it received an equity investment of more than $1 billion.
- OneSpan (OSPN) soars 29% after the cybersecurity firm posted beats for fourth-quarter profit and sales.
- Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) sinks 28% after the beleaguered lingerie maker’s full-year sales guidance fell short of analysts’ expectations.
- Yext Inc. (YEXT) jumps 17% after the infrastructure software company gave an outlook for adjusted full-year earnings that is ahead of expectations.
The ECB is set to keep borrowing costs steady for a fourth meeting on Thursday, with analysts unanimously predict the deposit rate will be held at a record 4%. Like their US counterparts, ECB chief Christine Lagarde is in no hurry to begin loosening monetary policy. Traders are bracing for the likelihood of the first quarter-point rate cut to be delivered either in June or July, while also expecting a total of at least three such reductions this year.
Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, said equity markets had reacted calmly so far this year to the paring of rate-cut bets, with just three reductions now expected — in line with the Fed’s own projection. But he said traders will be looking to see if the Fed points to even fewer cuts. “Markets could be in a bit of a holding pattern because they’ve reached the point now where they’re in line with the Fed,” Metcalfe said, adding traders had “put the ball back into the Fed’s court.”
Also overnight, the yen rose as much as 1% after accelerated wage growth and remarks from a BOJ board member. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index dropped, while the two-year government note yield climbed to the highest level since 2011.
The moves spark concern that higher rates at home will lure back Japanese money that’s currently parked in overseas markets. “Japanese demand for foreign assets and for Treasuries in particular has held solid, but this cannot be taken for granted once Japanese yields get to potentially more attractive levels,” State Street’s Metcalfe said.
Looking at today’s main US event, Fed Chair Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, where he reiterated the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, while adding that it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some point this year.” Powell also signaled officials would scale back plans to make banks hold more capital — a move that appeared to catch even seasoned industry lobbyists off-guard. That was enough to spur the biggest two-day rally in Treasuries since early February, keeping benchmark 10-year yields near a one-month low set on Wednesday. Powell’s testimony, due at 10 a.m. New York time, will come after weekly labor data that’s forecast to show initial jobless claims picked up slightly from the previous period.
US weekly employment benefits data are also due, and will set the stage for Friday’s monthly non-farm payrolls data.
In politics, Donald Trump challenged President Joe Biden to a debate after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential race.
European stocks pared opening declines to trade higher on the day, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 index rising above 500 points for the first time ever, as large caps extend rally. The index’s rally to a record high has been fueled by optimism around global economic growth and easing monetary policy. Tech as well as auto stocks have led gains this year, while investors’ favorites Novo Nordisk, ASML and SAP all made record highs. Stoxx 600 up 0.3% at 499.93 points. Here are the most notable market movers:
- Novo Nordisk shares surge as much as 5.8% after data showed the weight-loss drug amycretin helped patients in an early-stage clinical trial shed 13% of their weight in 12 weeks.
- Anglo American shares gain as much as 3.5% after Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight on an improving investment case.
- Virgin Money shares surge as much as 37% after Nationwide Building Society offered to buy the company for 220p/share.
- Bachem shares jump as much as 16% after the Swiss biochemical manufacturer reported better-than-expected 2023 results.
- Rentokil shares soar as much as 20% after the UK-based pest controller reported full-year results and a plan to recover organic growth in the US.
- ITV shares jump as much as 7.6% after the British broadcaster gave a stronger-than-expected advertising revenue outlook and announced a new cost savings program that will bring £50m benefit a year.
- Teleperformance shares tumble 18% to the lowest since Dec. 2016, after the French call center operator’s full-year results leave analysts feeling “deflated.”
- Hugo Boss shares drop as much as 20% after the German retailer’s outlook fell short of analysts’ expectations. RBC says the miss is likely due to softer consumer sentiment.
- Entain shares slip as much as 5.8% after the gambling group flagged a potential £40m hit to 2024 Ebitda from regulatory changes in the UK and the Netherlands.
- Lufthansa shares slip as much as 1.8% after the German airline group said it expected flat Ebit in 2024, impacted by labor strikes. Morgan Stanley notes that commentary around demand is positive.
- Ferragamo shares drop as much 7.7% after the Italian fashion group reported mixed full-year results that suggested the company’s turnaround story still has a way to run.
- Nordnet shares slide as much as 5.8% after SEB Equities cuts to hold, saying the wealth management firm is too reliant on a return to historical levels of retail trading customers.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot fell 0.2%, declining for a fifth consecutive day, setting the currency up for its longest losing streak since October. The euro is little changed ahead of the European Central Bank decision. The Japanese yen is on course for its best day this year, rising 1% versus the greenback as speculation surged that the Bank of Japan will move in March to raise interest rates. Not only did the January wage data top expectations, but Japan’s biggest union federation has also demanded its biggest pay hike since 1993
In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields at 4.10% trailing bunds by around 1.5bp in the sector while gilts lag. US Treasury yields are richer by up to 1bp across long-end of the curve which outperforms slightly on the day. Gilts are underperforming, led by the short-end as UK business say they expect to face stubbornly high wage growth. Bunds outperform ahead of ECB rate decision at 8:15am New York time. JGBs extended recent declines on heaviest futures volumes of the year so far as conviction grows that the Bank of Japan will start raising interest rates in March.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.7% to trade near $78.60 after West Texas Intermediate jumped 1.3% Wednesday amid further tensions in the Middle East, including the first confirmed deaths of commercial crew after Houthi militants began attacks in the region. Spot gold rose 0.4% climbing to a peak of $2,161.48 an ounce, having hit another record high in Asian trading hours.
Bitcoin rose, but held off record peaks.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes February Challenger job cuts (7:30am), January trade balance, 4Q final nonfarm productivity, initial jobless claims (8:30am), 4Q household change in net worth (12pm) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (10am) and Mester (11:30am, 1:15pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,111.00
- STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 498.54
- MXAP up 0.3% to 175.99
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 531.57
- Nikkei down 1.2% to 39,598.71
- Topix down 0.4% to 2,718.54
- Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 16,229.78
- Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,027.40
- Sensex little changed at 74,080.55
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,763.71
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,647.62
- Brent Futures down 0.3% to $82.72/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,156.24
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.16% to 103.20
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.34%
- Euro little changed at $1.0899
Top Overnight News
- The BOJ’s governor and one of its board members said on Thursday the economy was moving towards the central bank’s 2% inflation target, in comments that heightened market expectations of an imminent end to negative interest rates. RTRS
- Japan’s largest industrial labor group said on Thursday that 25 of its member unions have so far had their wage demands met in full from management, agreeing to raise full-time workers’ pay 6.7% during annual wage talks that end next week. The pay hike was the biggest since the UA Zensen, an umbrella group that represents 2,237 unions, was established in 2012, likely adding to the momentum of the ongoing negotiations. Strong wage growth is expected to pave the way for the central bank to normalize monetary policy. RTRS
- China’s import/exports for the Jan/Feb period exceed expectations – exports came in at +7.1% (vs. the Street +1.9%) while imports rose 3.5% (vs. the Street +2%). China’s FX reserves for Feb came in at $3.225T, a bit ahead of the Street’s $3.217T forecast. RTRS
- China is scrutinizing regional banks’ bond trading over concern they are speculating, rather than lending to boost the economy, people familiar said. BBG
- Tonight Biden will propose a dramatic expansion in the number of drugs Medicare can negotiate pricing on (from 20 under the current rules to 50) along with other measures aimed at curbing pharmaceutical costs for Americans. The Hill
- Joe Biden’s top economic aide, Lael Brainard, successfully pressed to adjust a White House Treasury yield forecast in a way that resulted in a slightly rosier outlook in the president’s forthcoming budget plan, people familiar said. BBG
- Robinhood is seeing as much as 25% of total trading volume coming outside of traditional market hours as investors take advantage of extended days on the retail-brokerage platform. Consumers have traded more than $10 billion in volume overnight since Robinhood launched its 24-hour, five-day-a-week trading capabilities last May — data the firm hasn’t previously announced. BBG
- Apple has been asked by the EU to explain why it prevented Fortnite video-game maker Epic Games from launching its own online marketplace on iPhones and iPads in Europe and whether this breaches EU technology rules, antitrust regulators said. RTRS
- Exxon Mobil said it filed a contract arbitration claim related to Hess Corp’s, opens new tab proposed sale of its Guyana oil properties, and suggested it may counter Chevron Corp’s pending deal for the assets. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed as participants second-guessed central bank policies and digested Chinese trade data.
ASX 200 finished higher but with trade choppy after disappointing home loans and trade data from Australia. Nikkei 225 initially climbed to a fresh record high but then slumped amid increasing hawkish BoJ speculation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued with heavy losses in WuXi Biologics and Wuxi Apptec after the US Senate’s Homeland Security Committee voted to move forward with a bill that could restrict business with Chinese biotech companies, while the mainland was cautious despite the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data, as the double-digit rise in exports had already been flagged by officials and with data likely to be influenced due to seasonality factors owing to the Lunar New Year holiday.
Top Asian news
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China has maintained continuity and stability of its policy towards the US, while he added that only by respecting and recognising differences can exchanges continue. Wang said they have to point out that the US’s wrong perception of China has continued and challenges facing the US are in itself not China, according to Reuters.
- HKMA advised banks to take extra care when lending to property speculators, according to SCMP.
- US Senate’s Homeland Security Committee voted to move forward with a bill that could restrict business with Chinese biotech companies like BGI and WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) on national security grounds.
- BoJ Board Member Nakagawa said Japan’s economy making steady progress towards the achievement of the price target and given the risks and uncertainties, she would like to gather information without any pre-set idea and make the appropriate monetary policy decision. Nakagawa said if they judge that sustained achievement of price goal foreseen, they will decide whether or not to tweak YCC, risky asset buying and other policy means, while she added the main scenario is that expectations of rising wages will underpin consumer sentiment, but there is risk that real income will undershoot and weigh on demand, economy and prices.
- BoJ Governor Ueda says fully possible to seek exit from stimulus while striving to achieve 2% target, says will mull adjusting easing if they can achieve price target and chance of reaching target is gradually rising. Will consider rolling back massive stimulus programme once positive cycle of wages and inflation is confirmed.
- Japan’s Rengo wage demand this year reportedly at 5.85% (4.49% in 2023), via Bloomberg.
- Chinese regulators are scrutinizing regional banks’ bond buying amid concerns the banks are speculating on securities as opposed to lending to boost the economy, according to Bloomberg sources.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.1%) began the session entirely in the red, though sentiment has since improved, with the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0..2%) modestly firmer, ahead of the ECB announcement today. European sectors are mixed; Healthcare is the clear outperformer, propped up by gains in Novo Nordisk (+5.1%), which is on its Capital Markets Day. Insurance is also firmer today, assisted by post-earning strength in Aviva. Autos is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by Continental (-4.1%). US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are tentative and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, with direction generally mirroring the price action seen in Europe.
Top European news
- German Economic Institute DIW says GDP expected to contract by 0.1% in Q1 (vs -0.3% in Q4 2023); 2024 forecast cut to 0% (prev. +0.6%), 2025 forecast upgraded to +1.2% (prev. +1.0%).
- BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel – One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations declined further to 3.3% in February, down from 3.4% in January. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations fell to 2.8% in the three months to February, 0.1pp lower than reported in the three months to January. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 5.2% on a three-month-moving-average basis. Businesses expect their output price inflation to decline over the next year.
- Britain’s renewable scheme gets more than GBP 1bln from Governments upcoming auction.
FX
- DXY is on the backfoot following yesterday’s selling pressure, with JPY strength possibly acting as a drag on the USD. There is not much in the way of support until 103, below which lies the Feb low at 102.90. NFP on Friday looms large.
- EUR is steady vs. the USD and lingering around the 1.09 mark after matching yesterday’s best at 1.0907. If the ECB comes in “hawkish”, next upside target is via the Jan 24th peak at 1.0932.
- JPY the clear outperformer following yesterday’s hawkish source reporting, BoJ commentary today and details over Rengo wage demands. USD/JPY has declined from a session high of 149.39 to a trough of 147.82, which coincides with the 50DMA.
- Antipodeans are both notably firmer vs. the USD. AUD potentially garnering support via Chinese trade metrics and rising iron ore prices. AUD/USD has eclipsed its 50DMA at 0.6585 with all eyes on a test of 0.66; not breached since Feb 2nd – 0.6610 was the high that day.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1002 vs exp. 7.1898 (prev. 7.1016).
Fixed Income
- USTs are incrementally firmer but steady overall at the low-end of slim 111-11 to 111-17+ bounds. Continued upside brings 111-20+, 7th Feb high into play. If the bearish action returns support resides at 111-01+, 110-23 & 110-21 from the last three sessions. Docket ahead features a number of US data points around the ECB and thereafter Fed’s Powell & Mester. Just before Mester, the 3, 10, 30yr refunding announcement is due.
- Bunds began the European session on a weaker footing, with hawkish impetus potentially taken from BoJ commentary and Rengo demands. Thereafter, soft German Industrial Orders and a significant upward revision seemingly pushed Bunds below the 133.00 handle to the current 132.93 trough. Following the strong French outing, Bunds lifted back above 133.00 to a peak at 133.29.
- Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers as action settles somewhat post-budget, the Chancellor’s media round added little this morning, though he did hint that income tax and national insurance could be combined as an alternative to abolishing NI. Gilts currently holds around 99.20.
- Spain sells EUR 6.058bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 3.50% 2029, 0.50% 2031, 3.25% 2034 Bono & EUR 0.51bln 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L
- France sells EUR 12.997bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13bln 3.50% 2033, 1.25% 2034, 1.25% 2038 and 3.25% 2045 OAT
Commodities
- Crude is softer on the session, failing to benefit from the weaker Dollar, and reports that ceasefire talks were unsuccessful have also failed to lift the complex; currently, Brent Apr is just under USD 82.50/bbl.
- Precious metals vary with spot gold continuing to rise to fresh ATHs above USD 2,150/oz as the upward momentum holds, whilst a subdued Dollar and heightened geopolitics only provide tailwinds. Spot silver takes a breather after yesterday’s gains; XAU posts an intraday range between USD 2,144.26-2,161.59/oz.
- Base metals are firmer trade across the board with the complex seemingly seeing tailwinds from the constructive Chinese Trade data overnight; 3M LME copper reclaimed a USD 8,600/t handle.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US Central Command said an anti-ship ballistic missile was launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen towards M/V True Confidence while transiting through the Gulf of Aden, while the multinational crew reported three fatalities, at least four injuries and significant damage to the ship, according to Reuters.
- US military said it conducted self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in Yemen, according to Reuters.
- Several people have died in an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas Refinery (320k BPD capacity), via IRNA
- “Mediators tried to bridge the gap between Hamas and Israel, but their efforts were unsuccessful”, according to Al Jazeera sources. “Israel rejected Hamas’ request for a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of the army from the Gaza Strip and the unconditional return of displaced persons”.
- Hamas delegation has left Cairo, ceasefire negotiations to resume next week, according to Al-Qahera News citing an official source
OTHER
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said they resolutely oppose all acts of power and bullying, while it will vigorously safeguard sovereignty, security, and development of the country. Wang commented that maintaining and developing Sino-Russian relations is a strategic choice based on the fundamental interests of both nations and China is willing to work with Russia to foster new drivers of cooperation and consolidate friendship. Furthermore, he stated that Taiwan election results cannot change the historical trend that it will return to the ‘motherland’ and pro-Taiwan independence forces are the biggest factors undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
- North Korean leader Kim inspected military training and ordered an upgrading of war preparations, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- 07:30: Feb. Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -20.0%
- 08:30: 4Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.7%, prior 0.5%
- 08:30: 4Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 3.1%, prior 3.2%
- 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 216,000, prior 215,000
- 08:30: Feb. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.91m
- 08:30: Jan. Trade Balance, est. -$63.5b, prior -$62.2b
- 12:00: 4Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior -$1.31t
- 15:00: Jan. Consumer Credit, est. $10b, prior $1.56b
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:00: Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress
- 11:30: Fed’s Mester Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
- 13:15: Fed’s Mester on CNBC
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
JPY strength continues with BoJ speak in focus, ECB ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 01:34 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed as participants second-guessed central bank policies and digested Chinese trade data.
- Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter) said he currently thinks there will be two rate cuts for 2024 which could potentially just be one.
- European equity futures indicate a contained open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.5% on Wednesday.
- In FX, DXY was contained after yesterday’s selling, JPY strength has continued with USD/JPY on a 148 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, US Challenger Layoffs, International Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, Canadian Trade, Japanese Household Spending, ECB Policy Announcement, BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s Powell & Mester, Supply from Spain, France & US
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were firmer and bonds also gained after soft employment data releases although the major indices closed off their highs with some chunky selling seen in the NY afternoon. Focus was also on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress where he gave the familiar rhetoric and expressed caution on cutting rates too early, but still thinks rates will likely be cut this year and that they are at the peak rate.
- SPX +0.51% at 5,105, NDX +0.67% at 18,018, DJI +0.20% at 38,661, RUT +0.70% at 2,068.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Daly (voter) said policy is in a good place and there is more work to do although she is encouraged that they have been able to bring inflation down with the labour market solid and they are on the path to bringing inflation down as gently as they can. Daly added the Fed is facing a calibration exercise on policy and holding on too long with rates could create an unforced error and hurt the economy, while she is waiting and watching the economy to finetune decision-making.
- Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter) said the base case is for no more rate hikes and if inflation is more entrenched than we think, the first thing the Fed would do is hold for longer. Kashkari added that if inflation flares again, that could justify a rate hike and that he currently thinks there will be two rate cuts for 2024 which could potentially just be one.
- Fed Beige Book stated economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January as eight districts reported slight to modest growth in activity, while three others reported no change and one district noted a slight softening.
- US House voted 339 to 85 to approve the package of spending bills which extends funding for some federal agencies through to September, while the bill now heads to the Senate, according to CBS News.
- NYCB (NYCB) raised more than USD 1bln in equity in which investors included Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital and Reverence Capital Partners, according to Bloomberg sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed as participants second-guessed central bank policies and digested Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 finished higher but with trade choppy after disappointing home loans and trade data from Australia.
- Nikkei 225 initially climbed to a fresh record high but then slumped amid increasing hawkish BoJ speculation.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued with heavy losses in WuXi Biologics and Wuxi Apptec after the US Senate’s Homeland Security Committee voted to move forward with a bill that could restrict business with Chinese biotech companies, while the mainland was cautious despite the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data, as the double-digit rise in exports had already been flagged by officials and with data likely to be influenced due to seasonality factors owing to the Lunar New Year holiday.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%) continued to trickle lower following yesterday’s fluctuations.
- European equity futures indicate a contained open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.5% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY was rangebound after suffering from soft employment data, while Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress largely reiterated the cautious message regarding cutting rates too soon and Kashkari said he thinks there will be two rate cuts in 2024 or potentially just one.
- EUR/USD briefly dipped beneath 1.0900 but held on to most of the prior day’s gains ahead of the ECB meeting.
- GBP/USD was choppy after recent indecision and with the Budget announcement ultimately having little sway.
- USD/JPY retreated below 149.00 amid narrower yield differentials, firmer wage data and recent source reports.
- Antipodeans gradually edged higher in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1002 vs exp. 7.1898 (prev. 7.1016).
- BoC Governor Macklem said they are going to take rate decisions one at a time and the BoC will take their April decision in April when they will have the benefit of more data, according to a Reuters interview.
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures slightly pulled back following the prior day’s bull flattening and recent Fed rhetoric.
- Bund futures remained subdued after recent indecision and briefly dipped below the 133.00 level.
- 10-year JGB futures declined after firmer-than-expected wage data in Japan and recent hawkish-leaning BoJ source reports, while mixed results at the 30yr JGB auction did little to support prices.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded rangebound after retreating from yesterday’s peak despite bullish inventory data and a deadly attack by Houthis on a vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
- Spot gold gradually edged higher to extend on its record highs above the USD 2,150/oz level.
- Copper futures were kept afloat but with upside limited amid the mixed risk appetite and despite firmer Chinese trade data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively with prices oscillating back and forth of the USD 66,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China has maintained continuity and stability of its policy towards the US, while he added that only by respecting and recognising differences can exchanges continue. Wang said they have to point out that the US’s wrong perception of China has continued and challenges facing the US are in itself not China, according to Reuters.
- HKMA advised banks to take extra care when lending to property speculators, according to SCMP.
- US Senate’s Homeland Security Committee voted to move forward with a bill that could restrict business with Chinese biotech companies like BGI and WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) on national security grounds.
- BoJ Board Member Nakagawa said Japan’s economy making steady progress towards the achievement of the price target and given the risks and uncertainties, she would like to gather information without any pre-set idea and make the appropriate monetary policy decision. Nakagawa said if they judge that sustained achievement of price goal foreseen, they will decide whether or not to tweak YCC, risky asset buying and other policy means, while she added the main scenario is that expectations of rising wages will underpin consumer sentiment, but there is risk that real income will undershoot and weigh on demand, economy and prices.
- BoJ Governor Ueda says fully possible to seek exit from stimulus while striving to achieve 2% target, says will mull adjusting easing if they can achieve price target and chance of reaching target is gradually rising. Will consider rolling back massive stimulus programme once positive cycle of wages and inflation is confirmed.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Feb) 125.16B vs. Exp. 103.7B (Prev. 75.34B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Feb) 7.1% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.3%)
- Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Feb) 3.5% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Chinese Trade Balance YTD (CNY)(Feb) 890.9B (Prev. 540.9B)
- Chinese Exports YTD YY (CNY)(Feb) 10.3% (Prev. 3.8%)
- Chinese Imports YTD YY (CNY)(Feb) 6.7% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Japanese Labour Cash Earnings YY (Jan) 2.0% vs Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 0.8%)
- Japanese Real Cash Earnings YY (Jan) -0.6% vs Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -1.9%, Rev. -2.0%)
- Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Jan) 11.0B vs. Exp. 11.5B (Prev. 11.0B)
- Australian Exports MM (Jan) 1.60% (Prev. 1.80%)
- Australian Imports MM (Jan) 1.30% (Prev. 4.80%)
- Australian Home Loans MM (Jan) -3.9% vs Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -4.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel Broadcasting Corp. cited sources stating that Washington is pushing for an agreement on a hostage deal in the coming days, according to Al Jazeera. It was separately reported that the US State Department said it still believes that an agreement between Israel and Hamas is possible and obstacles can be overcome.
- US Central Command said an anti-ship ballistic missile was launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen towards M/V True Confidence while transiting through the Gulf of Aden, while the multinational crew reported three fatalities, at least four injuries and significant damage to the ship, according to Reuters.
- US military said it conducted self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in Yemen, according to Reuters.
OTHER
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said they resolutely oppose all acts of power and bullying, while it will vigorously safeguard sovereignty, security, and development of the country. Wang commented that maintaining and developing Sino-Russian relations is a strategic choice based on the fundamental interests of both nations and China is willing to work with Russia to foster new drivers of cooperation and consolidate friendship. Furthermore, he stated that Taiwan election results cannot change the historical trend that it will return to the ‘motherland’ and pro-Taiwan independence forces are the biggest factors undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
- North Korean leader Kim inspected military training and ordered an upgrading of war preparations, according to KCNA.
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 PTS OR 0.41% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 208.31 PTS OR 1.27% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 492.07 PTS OR 1.23%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.46% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1968 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2066 /Oil UP TO 78.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.51/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
wage growth accelerates and that sparks a surge in the Bank of Japan rate hike odds/ Yen rises hugely (USA/Yen plunges)
USDJPY Plunges As Soaring Japanese Wage Growth Sparks Surge in BoJ Rate-Hike Odds
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 09:50 AM
There was notable weakness in Japanese stocks overnight after Japanese wage growth accelerated to the fastest clip since June.
While the basic wage trend unchanged, overall wage growth was lifted by the special wage:
According to monthly wage data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), nominal cash wage growth accelerated to +2.0% yoy in January, from +0.8% in December. Growth on a reference “same sample” basis (unaffected by changes in the survey sample) was +2.0%, with growth remaining at the same level since November last year.
The special wage rose sharply by +16.2% yoy and lifted overall wage growth by +0.6 pp. The special wage tends to fluctuate sharply and is particularly susceptible to sample bias. Growth in the special wage on a reference “same sample” basis rose only +5.9%.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The picture is not a pretty one for the average Jo-san as ‘real’ wages continue to sink…
Source: Goldman Sachs
…which has prompted labor unions to make the strongest pay demands in three decades.
Rengo, Japan’s largest labor union federation, announced in the afternoon that the average demand made by its unions this year was 5.85%, the biggest figure in three decades, compared with an initial figure of 4.49% a year ago. Stronger demands from unions this year will bode well for the initial results of Rengo wage talks due for release on March 15.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has personally lobbied executives for large wage increases, as he seeks to mollify consumers frustrated over persistent inflation. His government has implemented a number of measures to that end, including tax breaks for companies that raise wages.
This surprise jump in wage growth prompted speculation that the BoJ will move to hike rates this month for the first time since 2007.
“All of a sudden March looks like it’s live, and just a few weeks ago that was much less clear,” said Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets.
“The BOJ has a history of surprising the market, and it doesn’t seem to do forward guidance like other central banks, so there is going to be volatility around and ahead of the meetings.”
Bets on a hike at the March 18-19 meeting are gaining traction (almost 80%) as Bloomberg reports or rumors emerging that some BOJ officials favor an early move while some government officials also support a rate hike.
Source: Bloomberg
…and smashed USDJPY down 3 handles (yen stronger)…
Source: Bloomberg
“Everything is pointing to yen buying,” said Takeshi Ishida, a strategist at Resona Holdings Inc. in Tokyo.
“After an excessive drop in yen volatility and a buildup of yen shorts, both are susceptible to unwinding.”
Bloomberg reports that BOJ officials are getting more confident over the strength of wage growth, according to people familiar with the matter, a view board member Junko Nakagawa backed on Thursday.
“There are signs of a clear shift in businesses’ behavior for setting wages,” Nakagawa said during a speech in Shimane, western Japan.
“Japan’s economy and inflation are steadily making progress toward meeting the stable 2% inflation target.”
The first stop for USDJPY will be 142 based on inflation-adjusted rate differentials, which would imply an upside of 4% from its current levels. Beyond there, its fortunes will lie in the evolution of the interest-rate outlook in the US.
However, as Ven Ram noted yesterday, just getting to zero-bound won’t do the trick for the yen. With realized inflation still running above 2%, the BOJ’s policy rate needs to get a lot higher for inflation-adjusted rates to start biting – and for the yen to keep climbing from here.
Even so, the next 5% or so is the relatively easy part of the yen to climb against the dollar. But its potential goes far beyond – and a lot of that will come down how far the BOJ is willing to go.
3 CHINA
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
Wargames to simulate global food crisis in Europe?????
(zerohedge)
Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis
Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers’ protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there’s also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.
Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: “…over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis.”
Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to “Expect a level of chaos” and cautioned, “You may be confused at times and not have enough information.”
As the report underscores, what’s remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.
Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:
* * *
Harvest failures:
“And so, it’s 2025 and there are more harvest failures. They impact animal feed prices, which curbs livestock and fish production. Some ships carrying crops turn away from Europe to cater to higher bidders elsewhere.”
Palm oil exports cut:
“Asia’s palm oil export limits are now reducing supplies of daily staples from margarine to bread. Allegations of corporate greed, disinformation and conspiracy theories are spreading.”
Fertilizer crisis:
“The cost of fertilizers and energy needed to grow crops and keep glasshouses running soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Unrest in the street as shortages hit locally:
“Things unravel further later in 2025. Thieves are looting supermarkets. Police struggle to contain riots spreading in cities. People in Germany can’t find fish and meat at grocery stores. Livestock farmers are going bankrupt.”
Popular anger targets elites & corporations
“Meanwhile, the public’s focus shifts to profiteering by commodity traders. Small farms fall like dominos, while attacks on immigrants begin to become more widespread. Is the EU a sinking ship, someone asks in the video?”
As for “solutions” – interestingly conference participants were told (or rather took it as an assumption) that populations would have to be weaned off meat. Let them eat bugs?
“Day two started with a mindfulness session before focusing on policy proposals and any conclusions,” the Bloomberg journalist in attendance wrote. “There was little objection to the idea that diets need to shift toward healthier options and away from meat. Questions loomed over how best to manage food reserves and monitor the level of stockpiles.”
Just who it is that will “manage” food reserves is an interesting, and possibly scary, scenario to imagine as well. Read the rest of the full report “Europe is Wargaming a Food Crisis” here.
end
Euro Slides After ECB Cuts 2025 Inflation Forecast To 2.0% Target
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 08:43 AM
As previewed earlier, there were no notable surprises in the ECB’s announcement, which kept all three key rates unchanged (Marginal Lending 4.75% Refinancing 4.5%, Deposit 4.0%).
More importantly, while some were expecting the ECB to change its guidance, it did not and instead it kept the language unchanged to wit: “The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner” adding that “based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.”
Furthermore, the governing council reiterated that “rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”
Some other highlights:
Financial Conditions
- Financing conditions are restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping push down inflation.
Inflation
- The ECB said that it has revised inflation expectations down, in particular for 2024 which mainly reflects a lower contribution from energy prices. Staff now project inflation to average 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. The projections for inflation excluding energy and food have also been revised down and average 2.6% for 2024, 2.1% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026.
Besides the downward revision to inflation, the ECB also revised down their growth projection for 2024 to 0.6%, “with economic activity expected to remain subdued in the near term. Thereafter, staff expect the economy to pick up and to grow at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported initially by consumption and later also by investment.”
To summarize:
HICP Inflation projections:
- 2024: 2.3% (prev 2.7%)
- 2025: 2.0% (prev 2.1%)
- 2026: 1.9% (prev 1.9%)
GDP projections:
- 2024: 0.6% (prev 0.8%)
- 2025: 1.5% (prev 1.5%)
- 2026: 1.6% (prev 1.6%)
On net, while the ECB failed to provide some near term rate cut guidance, and in fact the verbal guidance was unchanged from before, what the market viewed as a dovish signal was the ECB’s revision to its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.0%, and matching the ECB’s inflation mandate.
The bottom line is that much of the statement was a reiteration of the previous, with the guidance for policy and language around APP/PEPP the same, with no explicit tip toward policy easing. However, as the market reaction indicates, the key development was the latest macroeonomic projections. where inflation forecasts were revised lower across the board for headline and core. It is those alterations that spark a dovish reaction seen across both EGBs where yields are sliding and the EURUSD where the kneejerk reaction has been lower.
And now all attention turns to Lagarde’s press conference.
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/
(TIMES OF ISRAEL)
As talks stall, hopes dim for hostage release deal, truce before Ramadan — report
By TOI STAFF
Hopes are dimming that an agreement to release hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 and secure a temporary truce to that would fighting in Gaza can be reached before the start of Ramadan next week, the New York Times reports citing US and Mideast officials.
The US has been pushing hard for an agreement before the Muslim fasting month begins on March 10 and has called on Hamas to accept the terms of a framework worked out in Paris last month that would put in place a six-week pause in fighting and a release of some 40 hostages in an initial phase in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners.
As talks appear to stall given Hamas’s insistent demands for a permanent ceasefire, those hopes have diminished, officials tell the New York Times.
Officials briefed on the talks say Hamas has “backed away” from the proposed agreement in Paris and in addition to a permanent ceasefire, also demands the withdrawal of troops from the Gaza Strip, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes in the north, and “provisions for the needs of our people.”
One regional official tells the publication that the main sticking point is the demand for a permanent ceasefire during or after the three phases of the hostage releases proposed in Paris, which Israel has refused.
Talks have moved from Doha to Cairo in recent days as the negotiations appear to flounder, according to the report. Israel has not sent a delegation to the talks since Hamas has refused to provide a list of living hostages to secure the deal. The US has backed Israel’s position and has said the request is legitimate.
According to the report, the officials believe Hamas has issued new demands for a variety of reasons including a belief that drawing out the fighting into Ramadan will weaken Israel. The terror group has called for a march on the flashpoint Temple Mount site in Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month, in moves the Israelis believe are designed to stir up violence.
“Hamas, according to people briefed on the talks, believes an action at the mosque will show its strength despite the monthslong Israeli military campaign in Gaza and could increase pressure on Mr. Netanyahu to end the fighting,” the report reads.
An incident last week in which dozens of Gazans were killed rushing an aid convoy and which drew international condemnation against Israel, including from the US, has also emboldened Hamas and its position in the talks, some officials believe, according to the report.
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/HAMAS/KAN YOUNIS
Troops still raiding Hamad Town in Khan Younis, army says
Troops operate in Gaza, in a handout image published by the IDF on March 7, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The IDF says operations against Hamas in the Hamad Town residential complex in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis is still ongoing, with troops killing gunmen and capturing weapons over the past day.
Troops of the 7th Armored Brigade raided several Hamas sites in the neighborhood, locating a weapons manufacturing plant, explosive devices and military equipment, the IDF says.
It says the soldiers also located several tunnel shafts, and destroyed a number of Hamas offices in the area.
The Commando Brigade has continued building-to-building searches in Hamad, killing several gunmen and seizing weapons in the past day, according to the IDF.
Nearby, in the Khan Younis suburb of al-Qarara, the IDF says an airstrike was carried out against a six-man Hamas cell that was spotted entering a building by troops of the Bislamach Brigade.
In another incident, Bislamach troops directed an airstrike on an RPG-wielding operative who was spotted entering a building known to be used by Hamas, with tunnel infrastructure beneath it, the IDF says.
Meanwhile, in central Gaza, the IDF says troops of the Nahal Brigade killed some 10 gunmen over the past day, including by calling in airstrikes.
A video released by the IDF shows what the military says is an airstrike on a group of Hamas operatives moving toward Nahal troops in central Gaza, and a strike on a site belonging to the terror group elsewhere in the Strip.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-7-2024
According to the IDF, one strike against a cell loading a vehicle with military equipment in central Gaza was followed by secondary explosions, indicating that weapons and explosives were in the car.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Delegations Leave Cairo With No Gaza Ceasefire Progress, ‘No Solution’ In Sight
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 10:25 AM
The latest round to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal in Cairo has failed. The Hamas delegation has departed the Egyptian capital, with no progress made, and it is accusing Israel of thwarting truce attempts while also blocking humanitarian aid operations to the Strip.
Israel for its part didn’t even send a delegation to Cairo and has only been engaged through intermediaries, after Prime Minister Netanyahu called Hamas’ conditions “delusional” – particularly the request for Israel’s military to withdraw all forces from Gaza.
A Hamas official was cited in Al Jazeera as charging that Israel has “thwarted” all attempts by mediators to reach an agreement. The situation is growing more desperate by the hour, with local reporters saying that in some instances children are fainting on the streets due to hunger.
According to an Al Jazeera update of some of the latest key developments in the Israel-Hamas war:
- Israel has “consistently and groundlessly” blocked aid operations for Gaza even as the enclave falls deeper into famine, according to a new report based on interviews with government officials, humanitarian workers, and NGO staff.
- South Africa requests additional action, immediate ceasefire order from International Court of Justice to prevent “full-scale famine” in Gaza.
- Houthi-claimed strike on cargo ship causes first deaths since group began attacks on Red Sea shipping in response to Israel’s war on Gaza.
- At least 30,800 Palestinians have been killed and 72,198 wounded in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7. The death toll in Israel from the October 7 Hamas attacks stands at 1,139.
Negotiators who have left Cairo say that talks have ended with ‘no substantial answer or solution’.
The Times of Israel has reported, “An official Egyptian source told the country’s Al-Qahera News state-affiliated TV channel that negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza have reached an impasse over Hamas’s demand for a phased process culminating in an end to the war, but said talks will resume next week.”
The Biden administration has meanwhile expressed that it hopes to see a legitimate deal reached by the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which starts March 10.
But each major battlefield incident or atrocity puts greater distance between the warring sides, and also increases pressure on each to gain the military upper hand, as mutual condemnations also abound.
ISRAEL/LEBANON/
IDF bombards Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
Today, 3:54 pm
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-bombards-hezbollah-sites-in-southern-lebano
The IDF says it carried out airstrikes on buildings used by Hezbollah in the southern Lebanon towns of Aitaroun and Ayta ash-Shab a short while ago.
It publishes footage showing a strike on a building in Ayta ash-Shab
The IDF also says it struck a Hezbollah building in Matmoura and an observation post in Jebbayn last night.
Rockets and missiles were fired today by Hezbollah at Rosh Hanikra, Ya’ara, and other locations along the border. The IDF says it shelled the launch sites with artillery.
END
IRAN/THE WEST
END
HOUTHIS/WEST
UKRAINE VS RUSSIA/
ROBERT H TO US;
About 700 thousand mobilized military personnel “disappeared” from the Ukrainian Armed Forces
”What mystery? They are dead, this is the horrible truth. It is called MIA or missing in action. Official reports of 450,000 dead are nonsense coming from a most corrupt government. The nonsense of Europe fighting Russia is demented. Europe does not even have its own gunpowder for artillery shells; it comes from China. The climate change crowd has seen to this. What are soldiers to fight with, sticks and stones? And for what does Russia need Europe when their economy is growing without Europe.
Time, voice and concern is better spent on trying to create meaningful prosperity for citizens. American hegemony is in decline and a new order is being created which cannot be stopped or ignored. Even aircraft companies like Dassault realize this and have components for their planes built in India to be competitive since Europe is too expensive.”
https://en.topcor.ru/45033-v-vsu-propali-okolo-700-tys-mobilizovannyh-voennosluzhaschih.html
END
TURKEY/RUSSIA
Turkey bows to pressure (sanctions) in halting Russian oil imports.
(zerohedge)
Turkish Port Halts Russian Oil Imports Amid Sanctions Pressure
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Tsvetana Parskova via OilPrice.com,
A Turkish oil terminal on the Mediterranean will stop importing Russian oil amid intensified U.S. sanctions pressure on Moscow’s exports, the terminal’s operator told Reuters on Tuesday.
Global Terminal Services (GTS) operates the mid-sized Dortyol terminal on the Mediterranean and it has decided to stop accepting Russia-origin volumes to avoid possible connections to Russian oil.
“GTS decided to cut all possible connections to Russian oil and declared accordingly to its customers in late February 2024 that even if there is no breach of any laws, regulations or sanctions, it would not accept any product of Russian origin or any products loaded from Russian ports as an additional measure to the sanction rules in effect,” the company told Reuters.
All previous imports of Russian oil have been in compliance with the applicable sanctions, including the G7 price cap on Russian crude and petroleum products, GTS added.
After the EU banned imports of Russian crude and products last year, Turkey has become one of the biggest importers of Russian oil.
However, a recent U.S. sanctions threat to impose secondary sanctions on financial firms and other intermediaries doing business with Russia has already resulted in lower Turkish-Russian trade, including in oil.
Trade between Russia and Turkey has suffered a setback since late December with some payments for imported Russian oil cargoes delayed, as banks are boosting compliance checks following a U.S. threat to sanction financial institutions for facilitating business with Russia.
In December, U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order, which authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to potentially impose sanctions on a foreign financial institution if it is found to have “conducted or facilitated any significant transaction or transactions for or on behalf of any person designated” in the sanctions against Russia.
As a result of this new sanctions threat, payments have been disrupted with some delays seen in payments for oil cargoes that Turkey imports from Russia, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters last month.
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
This is very important: covid vaccines is causing gut microbes to falter in number and that is causing huge complications
(EpochTimes)
Alteration Of Gut Microbiota Affects The Severity And Complications Of COVID-19
WEDNESDAY, MAR 06, 2024 – 10:20 PM
Authored by Elllen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Increasing evidence suggests that alterations in the gut microbiota are associated with the development, severity, and sequelae of COVID-19 infection.
In the adult digestive tract, there are approximately 100 trillion microbes, 10 times the number of human cells, and they weigh about 4.41 pounds. These organisms are immune system guardians and can help remove viruses.
Certain Gut Bacteria Can Inactivate COVID-19 Virus
In a new study published in Cell Host & Microbe, researchers evaluated the impact of gut microbiota composition on respiratory viral infections through animal experiments. The results showed that segmented filamentous bacteria (SFB) in the gut could protect mice from viral influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the COVID-19 virus.
Studies have indicated that SFB, whether naturally present or acquired, can combat viral infections with the help of alveolar macrophages in the lungs.
Alveolar macrophages serve as the first line of defense against respiratory pathogens.
In mice that don’t have SFB, these immune cells were rapidly depleted as infection progressed. Conversely, in mice with SFB in the gut, these immune cells underwent alterations to resist the inflammatory signaling induced by the influenza virus. Moreover, alveolar macrophages directly disabled the influenza virus.
Gut-Lung Axis
While the functions of the gut and lungs are different, they share common structural features, as they both develop from the same embryonic tissue. Both the gut and lungs are covered with mucous membranes. These membranes secrete mucin and collectively form a mucosal immune system that defends against pathogens.
As research on COVID-19 progresses, some researchers have noted the bidirectional and complex relationship of the gut-lung axis. Microbiota-derived metabolic pathways can function distally and play a vital role in anti-inflammatory responses in the airways.
The SFB are unlikely to be the only kind of gut microbe capable of affecting the immune cells in the lungs, said Dr. Andrew Gewirtz, a co-senior study author, in a press release.
Dr. Richard Plemper, a co-senior author of the paper, said that among the thousands of microbial species inhabiting the mouse gut, a common commensal microbe significantly impacted respiratory virus infections. He further stated that if these findings apply to human infections, they could have substantial implications for the risk assessment of disease progression in patients.
Research has shown that alterations in the gut microbiota, including changes in specific microbiota species and microbial-derived metabolites, play an important role in regulating the severity and progression of COVID-19 infection and post-recovery complications.
Viral Respiratory Tract Infection Affects the Gut Microbiota
An analysis of fecal samples from 102 patients with severe COVID-19 infection following ICU admission found that decreased concentrations of gut microbiome metabolite—secondary bile acids and desaminotyrosine—were associated with an increased risk of respiratory failure and mortality.
Another study revealed that patients infected with COVID-19 showed a decrease or depletion of bacteria with immune-regulating capabilities in the body, such as Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, as well as some bacteria from the Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium families.
Additionally, respiratory virus infections are often observed in patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Microbiota analysis of these patients showed that those with reduced levels of commensal bacterial species producing butyrate had a fivefold increase in the progression of viral respiratory tract infections.
Enhancing Gut Health to Build Robust Immunity
The intestinal tract, the largest immune organ in the human body, plays a crucial role in establishing and maintaining a robust immune system, and gut immunity is closely linked to our diet.
Probiotics are beneficial bacteria for the gut and are relatively safe health supplements. A retrospective cohort study showed that COVID-19 patients treated with probiotics had a shorter time to clinical improvement, including reduced fever, hospital stays, and viral shedding. Another study also indicated that probiotic treatment significantly shortened the duration of diarrhea in critically ill COVID-19 patients.
BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health published a study in 2021 analyzing the effects of dietary habits on COVID-19 infection, severity of symptoms, and duration of the illness.
The study covered 2,884 frontline health care workers from six different countries, investigating their dietary habits and the severity of COVID-19 infection. The results showed that participants who followed either a plant-based or pescatarian diet (where a person doesn’t eat meat but eats fish) had a 59 percent lower odds of developing moderate to severe COVID-19 than those who did not.
END
We have been warning you on the use of RSV vaccines. Data suggests that they may increaase risk of rare neurological conditions
(EpochTimes)
RSV Vaccines May Increase Risk Of Rare Neurological Condition
WEDNESDAY, MAR 06, 2024 – 08:20 PM
Authored by Megan Redshaw via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Recently approved vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) for older adults may be linked to a rare nervous system disorder that causes the body’s immune system to attack its own nerves.
In a Feb. 29 meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, health officials presented data that appears to show a slightly elevated rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) among people who received RSV vaccines by Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).
A data mining alert on Jan. 19 for disproportional reporting was detected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Pfizer’s Abrysvo RSV vaccine and GBS but has not been reported to date for GSK’s RSV vaccine Arexvy, according to Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, deputy director of the CDC’s influenza division and former director of the CDC’s immunization safety office.
The FDA uses data mining to identify statistical associations between products and events in their respective safety databases. If there is disproportionate reporting of an event for a particular product, this could suggest a statistical association between the adverse event and the product.
According to data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) presented by Dr. Shimabukuro, data show 35 reports of GBS with 18 cases attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine, Abrysvo, 16 cases attributed to GSK’s Arexvy, and one case that was not reported under either brand name.
The CDC verified 23 cases of GBS reported to VAERS as of Feb. 16—all occurring within 22 days of RSV vaccination. Of the 23 cases, 15 were attributed to Pfizer’s vaccine and eight to GSK’s vaccine. Fourteen males experienced the condition compared with nine females. There was one death reported in a 70-year-old man who developed GBS after receiving Arexvy.
“Certainly 23 cases of GBS within 22 [days] of RSV vaccination is not a ‘small signal’ given the woeful underreporting in VAERS,” Brian Hooker, chief scientific officer at Children’s Health Defense, who holds a doctorate in biochemical engineering, told The Epoch Times in an email.
“What is always missing with VAERS is a good denominator. Given that these vaccines have been distributed for less than a year (since May 31, 2023), I would expect the uptake to still be fairly low,” he added.
According to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), underreporting is one of the main limitations of a passive surveillance system like VAERS. “The term, underreporting refers to the fact that VAERS receives reports for only a small fraction of actual adverse events,” HHS states on its website. A November 2020 article published in Vaccine showed sensitivity for capturing GBS after three different vaccines ranged from 12 to 64 percent, suggesting more cases of GBS are occurring than are being captured.
Vaccine Safety Database Suggests ‘Potential’ for Increased Rate of GBS
The CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) suggests the “potential for an increased rate of GBS” following vaccination with GSK’s Arexvy RSV vaccine, but the agency said additional analyses are needed. There were insufficient doses of Pfizer’s Abrysvo used in the VSD to determine the risk of GBS following vaccination.
It is estimated that 10 people will experience GBS for every 1 million doses of Arexvy administered, compared with 25 cases of Abrysvo, the CDC’s vaccine advisors said during the meeting.
Due to the small number of GBS cases and the size of the prelicensure studies, Dr. Shimabukuro said it’s not known at this time whether the reported GBS cases or other neuroinflammatory events are random chance or whether RSV vaccination might increase the risk of these events. However, GBS is already included as an adverse event on both companies’ vaccine labels.
In prelicensure studies of Prizer’s RSV vaccine in adults 60 and older, two reported cases of GBS among 20,255 vaccine recipients were observed within 42 days of vaccination compared with one case during GSK’s study of 18,304 vaccine recipients.
“We’re still in the early uptake phase of these new RSV vaccines,” Dr. Shimabukuro told STAT in an interview after the meeting. “Some of these data and findings are based on small numbers of cases and relatively small numbers of doses administered,” he added. Due to “uncertainties and limitations” of early data, Dr. Shimabukuro said the agency can’t establish whether there’s an increased risk for GBS in individuals 60 and older following RSV vaccination, but better risk estimates would be forthcoming in the future.
During the meeting, Pfizer vice president Reema Mehta said the company believes its vaccine is safe but is committed to continuous monitoring and evaluation of Abrysvo’s safety to assess the possibility of vaccine-related GBS.
In an email to STAT, a spokesperson for GSK said the CDC analysis did not indicate an elevated rate of GBS among people who had received their company’s RSV vaccine, but it is designing a study to evaluate the risk of GBS after vaccination with Arexvy.
Mr. Hooker said what’s more shocking to him is the 34 deaths reported from RSV vaccine in a short period of time. The deaths were included in Dr. Shimabukuro’s presentation during the ACIP meeting.
“The swine flu vaccine was taken off of the market for fewer deaths,” Mr. Hooker told The Epoch Times. “It seems that with the advent of the horrific result of the COVID-19 vaccine, the bar has been severely lowered in terms of overall safety.”
The CDC said during the meeting that its risk-benefit analysis continues to support the use of both RSV vaccines in people over 60 due to the burden of RSV in that population.
GBS Reported After Other Vaccines
The FDA, in May 2023, licensed Pfizer and GSK’s RSV vaccines for adults 60 and older. The CDC signed off on a recommendation made by its advisory panel shortly thereafter recommending the vaccine for people 60 and older only if a healthcare provider thinks vaccination would be beneficial versus making it an annual vaccine. Some vaccine advisors proposed making a universal recommendation for RSV and requested more data at the upcoming meeting scheduled in June.
According to the CDC, RSV is a common respiratory virus that usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms. Although most people recover in a week or two, it can be serious and is more commonly diagnosed in infants.
GBS is a rare neurological disorder that occurs when a person’s immune system attacks the peripheral nervous system—a network of nerves that carry signals from the brain and spinal cord to other areas of the body. The condition begins suddenly with weakness and tingling in the hands and feet and eventually spreads throughout the body, resulting in paralysis that can leave a person unable to breathe independently.
Although most people recover from GBS, some cases are severe and can be fatal. Recovery can take several years, and it may take six months or longer after symptoms start for an individual with GBS to walk again.
Miller Fisher syndrome (MFS) and Bickerstaff brainstem encephalitis (BBE) are two variants of GBS. MFS is a nerve disease that usually involves the lower cranial and facial nerves, and BBE involves altered consciousness, problems with muscle coordination, and impaired eye movements.
Other vaccines have also been linked to GBS, including COVID-19, recombinant zoster, and influenza vaccines. CDC studies based on data from the VSD and VAERS found an increased risk of GBS among adults 18 and older following COVID-19 vaccination with the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) shot manufactured by Janssen. The FDA, in July 2021, announced revisions to the product fact sheets for J&J to include a warning related to the increased risk of GBS observed following vaccination.
Although the agency said it has not observed a similar signal with mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna, cases of GBS and its variants have been reported following vaccination with both vaccines to VAERS and by the scientific community.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Illegals Biden INC. is flying in (& corssing border) get telephones, US$ 5,000 spending money, new clothes and meals while staying in 5 star hotels all on your dollar; who among them, have rapists &
murderers and islamic jihadists, terror cell killers, chinese nationals, all military aged, coming in, WILL rape your daughters, will KILL us…100% will happen, remember what they did to Europe?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 6 |
made Europe the rape capital of the world…all going through Belgium, Molenbeek, terror training finishing school…
Biden (and Obama) has INVADED America…yes, a POTUS, sitting, has literally invaded America
Biden flew 320,000 illegal likely rapists, murderers, islamist jihadists into 43 American airports and will not say where! They are here, prepared to KILL, gang rape your daughters, SECRET flights
This is catastrophic & makes 9/11 pale in comparison as to risks we face (if it were as reported); Biden (and Obama) have placed Americans at risk for it is not IF, but WHEN, terror attacks are BOOKED
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 6 |
‘Joe Biden‘s administration has admitted transporting migrants on secret flights into the U.S. and lawyers for its immigration agencies claim revealing the locations could create national security ‘vulnerabilities’.
Customs and Border Protection has refused to disclose information about a program last year secretly arranging flights for thousands of undocumented immigrants from foreign airports directly to U.S. cities.’
END
Is the Biden Admin Secretly Flying Migrants to an Airport Near You? DHS Won’t Say. But my questions questions as an investigative reporter says YES…and they coming to kill us, preped to kill…many
seasoned…jihadists among them, among the ‘gotaways’…guard your daughters…ensure she knows the 2nd ammendment…why are Biden, Obama, Rice et al. RINOs doing this?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAR 7 |
SLAY NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
From: Slay News <mail@slaynews.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 6, 2024 at 5:11 PM
Subject: 
Journalist, Who Demanded Concentration Camps for Unvaccinated, Dead at 33
To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>
| The latest reports from Slay NewsJournalist, Who Demanded Concentration Camps for Unvaccinated, Dead at 33A corporate media journalist, who controversially demanded that unvaccinated members of the public be taken away to concentration camps, has died at just 33 years old.READ MORE40-Year-Old Fox News Journalist Diagnosed with Turbo Cancer after Covid ShotFox News journalist Ashley Papa has been diagnosed with stage 4 appendix turbo cancer after being pressured to take Covid mRNA shots under the network’s vaccine mandate.READ MORENYC to Conduct Random Bag Searches on Subway Riders amid Crime SurgePolice in New York City are bringing back random bag searches of subway riders as the Big Apple continues to record an alarming surge in crime rates.READ MOREArizona Judge Drops Hammer on Manhattan DA Bragg, Refuses to Extradite Murder Suspect to NYCProgressive Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg just vicariously lost a court battle as part of his ongoing dispute over a murder suspect that the soft-on-crime prosecutor wants to be extradited to New York City.READ MORENikki Haley Refuses to Endorse Trump after Ending 2024 CampaignFailed Republican primary candidate Nikki Haley has refused to endorse President Donald Trump for reelection while announcing the end of her own 2024 campaign.READ MORENew Poll Shows Trump Beating Biden in General ElectionA new poll for the November general election shows President Donald Trump soaring to victory.READ MORENew Witness Threatens to Sink Fani Willis, Says Nathan Wade’s Lawyer Lied under OathA new witness has come forward and is willing to testify against Georgia’s Democrat Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.READ MORE11-Year-Old Boy Dies Suddenly, Police Treating Death as ‘Unexplained’An 11-year-old boy has been found dead after tragically dying suddenly.READ MORERetired Federal Judge Melts Down over Supreme Court’s Ballot Decision: Trump ‘Will Never Be Disqualified from Holding the Presidency’Retired federal Judge J. Michael Luttig says he is outraged that President Donald Trump “will never be disqualified from holding the presidency” following the Supreme Court’s recent ruling.READ MORENikki Haley Ends 2024 Campaign after Super Tuesday BloodbathDemocrat favorite Nikki Haley has ended her campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination after suffering a crushing defeat from President Donald Trump.READ MOREDemocrats Launch New Get-Trump Scheme after Supreme Court Ballot Ban EffortsDesperate Democrats have already launched a new scheme to “save democracy” after the Supreme Court unanimously sided with President Donald Trump and shut down efforts to remove him from 2024 ballots.READ MORERep Chip Roy Unveils Bill Allowing Americans to Sue Vaccine Makers over Deaths and Injuries Caused by Covid ShotsRepublican Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) is moving to pass legislation that will allow Americans to sue vaccine makers over injuries and deaths caused by Covid shots.READ MOREElon Musk’s X Walks Back New ‘Gender Pronoun’ Policy after Widespread BacklashElon Musk’s X social media platform has walked back its new policy to censor users who use the “wrong” “gender pronouns” following a widespread backlash against the rule.READ MORE |
| EVOL NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICT
| Top EU Leader Blows Whistle: WEF Using ‘Climate Change’ to Depopulate EarthA top European Union leader has blown the whistle with an explosive warning for citizens around the world regarding the true agenda behind the “climate change” narrative.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Doctors Raise Alarm as Vaccinated Begin Suffering ‘Sudden Deafness’Multiple doctors have started to raise the alarm after their patients have begun suffering from “sudden deafness” after receiving Covid mRNA vaccines.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Top Senator Abruptly QUITSSen. Krysten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has announced that her career as a politician is officially over. In a video posted on X, Sinema said, “In 2017, I warned we were approaching a crossroads. Our democracy was weakened by government dysfunction and the constant pull to the extremes by both political parties.” She continued: “I promised I would do my best to …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden Caught Secretly Flying Hundreds of Thousands of Illegals into U.S.President Joe Biden is overseeing a program involving undisclosed flights to transport hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants to the United States annually, as per information obtained by Todd Bensman at the Center for Immigration Studies.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Democrats Launch New Scheme to Get Trump…Desperate Democrats have initiated a new strategy to “protect democracy” following the unanimous decision by the Supreme Court in favor of President Donald Trump, which halted attempts to exclude him from the 2024 ballots.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0896 DOWN .0004
USA/ YEN 147.89 DOWN 1.378 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2750 UP .0015
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3495 DOWN .0017 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.53 PTS OR 0.41%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 208.31 POINTS OR 1.27%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.46% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 208.31 PTS OR 1.27%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.53 PTS OR 0.41%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.46%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 492.07 PTS OR 1.23%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2158.40
silver:$24.21
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103.17 DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.951% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.725% UP 1 AND 4//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.118 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.621 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3075 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0938 UP 0.0038 or 38 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.13 DOWN 1.126 OR YEN IS UP 113 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 1.2792 UP .0056 OR 56 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0044 OR 78 BASIS pts to 1.3468
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1929
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2014)
TURKISH LIRA: 31.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.721…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.119% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.264 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.528 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;30 AM 2157.40
SILVER AT 10;30: 24.42
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 13.15 PTS OR 0.17%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 126.14 PTS OR 0.71%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 21.92 PTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 61.48 PTS OR 0.77%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 122.40 PTS OR 1.20%
WTI Oil price 78.89 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 82.92 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.61; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 1//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3075 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.036 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0945 UP .0046 OR 46 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2805 UP .0070 or 70 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.043 UP 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.729%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.04 DOWN 1.220//YEN UP 122 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3458 DOWN .0054 CDN dollar UP 54 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.89
Brent OIL: 82.80
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.090%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.252%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.512%
USA dollar index: 102.79 DOWN 54 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 31.83 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.60 DOWN 0 AND 1/100 roubles
GOLD 2160.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 24.35 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 130.30 PTS OR 0.34%
NASDAQ UP 280.42 PTS OR 1.56%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.35 DOWN .15 PTS OR 1.03%
GLD: $199.94 UP 1.13 OR 0.57%
SLV/ $22,24 UP ,14 OR 0.63%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Dollar Dives Near 2-Month Lows As Bitcoin & Bullion Hit New Record Highs
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Another day, another ‘buy all the things’ move in markets as the dollar extended yesterday’s decline.
The dollar was down for the 5th straight day to the lowest close since Jan 15th. This has been the biggest 2-day-decline since mid-December…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar’s losses were driven in large part by yen’s strength (after wage growth soared and sent BoJ rate-hike expectation soaring)…
Source: Bloomberg
And Euro strength (after ECB) also helped push down the dollar
Source: Bloomberg
As the dollar dived, everything else rallied – stocks, bonds, bitcoin, and gold all gained..
Source: Bloomberg
All the majors were higher again today, led by Nasdaq. The Dow as the laggard but still managed decent gains on the day, even though its closing below the cash-session open. The European session was a buy-fest
The S&P’s gains today took it positive for the week and puts it on pace to be the 17th positive week in the last 19 weeks – the longest streak since 1964…
Mag7 stocks rebounded from Tuesday’s decline (can’t help but feel like that was a very technical move ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls print)…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX refused to play along with the equity squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bid today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -5bps, 10Y -2bps)
Source: Bloomberg
Which prompted some bull-steepening in the curve…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin extended yesterday’s bounce, back up to $68,000 and ending at a record close…
Source: Bloomberg
Which comes after another solid net inflow day (+$332mm) for BTC ETFs…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum extended further today, topping $3900 once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices chopped around but ended basically unchanged with WTI just below $79…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we keep hearing about the ‘broadening’ of the rally (as some way to compensate for Mag7’s slowdown). But, judging from the underlying members and their moving averages, that just ain’t true…
Source: Bloomberg
“Today just feels… different,” says JPMorgan trader Matt Reiner in a note to clients this morning.
“I can’t help but sense that we’re at the apex of some unknown pivot point in the market. I can’t shake it.”
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
We keep telling you: DO NOT PUT ANY FAITH IN JOBLESS DATA
(zerohedge)
Jobless Claims Refuse To Budge Despite Accelerating WARN Notices
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 08:35 AM
In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs…
1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees
But, according to the government-supplied data…
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week was flat at 217K (SA) while claims declined on an NSA basis to four month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing Claims ticked back above 1.9mm for the first time since November…
Source: Bloomberg
And WARNs have surged recently as claims haven’t…
As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:
“While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”
Even they aren’t buying it.
But, Pantheon Macro expects that to change soon…
“Claims are still very low by historical standards.
We expect that to change soon.
The WARN numbers, capturing advance notice of plant closures and mass layoffs, have jumped recently and point to initial claims rising significantly over the next few months”
Of course, we know the solution…
Dear BLS: you’re going to have to rig state level WARN data next cause it’s, well, diverging
Ah, Bidenomics!!
END
Trade deficit widens 5.1% to $67.4 billion in January, largest trade gap in nine months
March 7, 2024 at 8:34 a.m. ET
MarketWatchDeficit will potentially be a slight drag on first- quarter GDP
The numbers: The U.S. international trade deficit widened 5.1% in January to $67.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It is the largest trade gap since April 2023.
The widening was larger than expected. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would widen to a seasonally adjusted $63.4 billion from the initial estimate of a deficit of $62.2 billion in June.
Key details: With exports almost flat, the deficit moved higher with a strong 1.1% rise in exports. Technology equipment and autos drove the gains.
Adjusted for inflation, imports were also much stronger than exports.
Big picture: The trade sector helped boost growth in 2023, but could be less so this year. The outlook is for moderation with slower global demand and growth, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
Looking ahead: The deficit could reduce first quarter GDP by about 0.5 percentage points, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief economist at Capitol Economics.
TUCKER CARLSON….
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Credit Card Debt Jumps To New All-Time High, As Card Rates Rise To New Record
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 03:43 PM
Just when you thought US consumers had finally learning their lesson, and had stopped buying stuff they can’t afford with money they don’t have… we got the latest consumer credit data which collapsed that particular thesis in a millisecond.
After last month we saw an unprecedented halt to growth in both revolving credit (i.e., credit card) growth – which rose by just $1 billion – as well as non-revolving (i.e., auto and student loans) which practially flatlined growing by just $0.5 billion – in January things were seemingly back to normal, as total consumer credit surged by $19.5BN, compared to the $0.9BN downward revised December print (from $1.561BN originally), driven by a powerful rebound in both credit card and auto loans.
Starting at the top, revolving credit in January rose by $8.4 billion from an upward revised $2.6 billion…
… pushing total revolving credit to a record $1.327 trillion, which as shown in the chart below means that the trendline from the pre-covid era has now been surpassed, while the savings rate is at an all time low.
Meanwhile, on the non-revolving credit side, “number also go up“, rising by $11 billion to a record high $3.712 trillion after unexpectedly declining by $1.7 billion in December.
The latest acceleration in credit card debt comes as a surprise for several reasons, not least of all that according to the Fed, the average rate across all commercial banks on all credit card amounts just hit a new record high of 21.47% despite the drop in rates observed in late 2023, which is a vivid reminder that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them.
Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed from over 5% to 3.8% – the lowest since 2022 – in just a few months…
… there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, although with an election on the horizon – one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged – don’t be surprised if the White House instructs banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates…
… as discussed in more detail earlier in “These Are The 5 Charts The FDIC Does Not Want You Paying Attention To”, only for the hammer to fall on the first day of Trump’s new presidency.
10% Of Biden 2020 Voters Say They’re Switching To Trump
WEDNESDAY, MAR 06, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Last weekend, newly-based, former Democrat darling pollster Nate Silver (who recently vanquished a lying leftist academic for spreading misinformation) penned a Saturday blog post in which he noted that President Biden has a huge problem with swing voters.
While Silver acknowledges that there are “relatively few swing voters” in the US, there are some – “and with the country divided roughly 50/50, they usually determine who wins.”
What’s more, the composition of the electorate has shifted – with a dropoff in those IDing as Democrats loosely corresponding to a rise in those claiming to be independent voters, according to Gallup.
Silver’s point? “something has changed over the past decade or so. The Democratic Party brand no longer has an edge on the Republican brand; voters don’t like either one very much.”
Biden loses 10%
Silver then brings our attention to a tweet from pundit Matt Yglesias – who highlights a NY Times poll that reveals 10% of 2020 Biden voters are now saying they back Trump.
While Yglesias frames it as “insanely banal swing voter stuff,” Silver sees it as far more serious for Democrats.
Via natesilver.net:
I’m a big Yglesias fan, but I’m not sure this take is so boring or so obvious. Here’s a slightly spicy argument, in fact: I suspect that some of the reason that pundits don’t like this take is because the media has become considerably more partisan. In contrast a couple of decades ago, punditry was dominated by newspaper columnists who were milquetoast centrists and TV panelists who were scrupulously nonpartisan. Now, people who comment about politics on blogs and social media tend to be loyal, reliable partisans, aligning with either Democrats or Republicans on nearly every issue. That sort of consistent partisanship is much less common among the broader electorate, although it’s becoming more so.
My theory is that this more partisan species of pundit often implicitly or explicitly advocates for focusing on base turnout because it suits their ideological interests.. These pundits tend to be strong progressives (or conservatives) themselves, and the base-turnout theory implies there’s no trade-off between ideologically-charged policy goals and electoral ones. Read progressive media, for instance, and you’ll often hear that Biden was wise to cancel student loan repayments1 because it would excite young voters, even though student loan relief polls questionably with the electorate overall. I’m not sure I want to get too far into the weeds on Biden’s stance toward the Middle East, but you’ll often hear this argument on Gaza, too. It’s often just assumed (despite poor results for the “uncommitted” protest vote in the Michigan primary on Tuesday) that it would be electorally advantageous for Biden to move to the left by becoming more hawkish toward Bibi Netanyahu, even though Americans overall are still more sympathetic to Israel than Palestine.
The Times/Siena poll that Yglesias alluded to speaks to the potential dangers for Democrats of the base-turnout focus. The poll asked voters who they voted for in 2020 as well as who they plan to vote for in November. This produced a big gap; Biden actually led by 12 points in the recalled 2020 vote, but he trails Trump by 5 points in 2024 voter preferences:
- 2020 recalled vote (excluding nonvoters): Biden 53%, Trump 41%
- 2024 vote (including learners): Trump 48%, Biden 43%
Now, this is a weird result – Biden actually won in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points, not 12. It may reflect the fact that voters sometimes incorrectly recall their previous votes and there can be a bias toward the candidate who won the prior election (in this case, Biden). Nevertheless, this is a bad data point for White House. In the poll, only 83 percent of voters who say they chose Biden in 2020 plan to vote for him this year, whereas 97 percent who voted for Trump plan to vote for Trump again.
These are swing voters, in other words — people who are explicitly stating to pollsters that they are switching their vote from 2020. There are a substantial number of them.
* * *
Not everyone, including Fast Company contributor James Surowiecki, can accept reality:
Yes, 10% of Biden 2020 voters now say they’re going to vote for Trump in 2024, as compared to <1% of Trump 2020 voters who now say they’re going to vote for Biden. They are switching their votes and not just undecided.
Quote
James Surowiecki
@JamesSurowiecki
·
Mar 4
Are swing voters actually swinging toward Trump (as Nate argues), or just into the undecided column? Trump got 48% of the two-person vote in 2020, and he’s getting 48% of the two-person vote in the NYT/Siena poll.
·
822.1K Views
Of course, the 2024 election will ultimately come down to whether Trump voters can overcome “the Democrats fraudulent voting scheme,” according to the former president.
END
Michael Snyder….
Alarm Bells For The US Food Supply
Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,
How much more are you spending on food each month compared to two or three years ago? In recent years, our leaders have been flooding the system with money at the same time that global supplies of food have been getting tighter and tighter. On the other side of the world, hundreds of millions of people do not have enough food to eat on a regular basis and children are literally dropping dead from starvation. Here in the United States, nobody is dropping dead from starvation, but demand at food banks is absolutely exploding as U.S. households struggle to deal with how oppressively expensive groceries have become. Unfortunately, things are about to get even worse.
Right now, the largest fire in the entire history of Texas continues to rage out of control…
The biggest inferno in Texas history is being fueled by winds and high temperatures as it rages Sunday, threatening to incinerate more buildings, cattle and livelihoods across the Texas Panhandle while residents sift through ashes of what used to be homes.
Critical fire weather conditions were expected to continue Sunday in the area, with strengthening winds gusting to 50 mph and dry conditions combining to set the stage for rapid wildfire spread, the National Weather Service warned.
The Smokehouse Creek Fire has been burning for nearly a week and has torched more than 1 million acres in Texas alone, making it the largest fire on record in the state – and it is only 15% contained.
With each passing hour, even more cattle are being engulfed by the fires.
Nobody knows for sure how many have been killed so far.
Most news reports that I have seen say that it is “thousands”…
The largest wildfire in Texas history has devastated the state’s agriculture, blazing through more than 1 million acres of land in the Panhandle, killing thousands of livestock, destroying crops and gutting infrastructure.
The agriculture industry, a big driver of the state’s economy, was already facing pressures from prolonged and widespread drought that forced ranchers to manage smaller herds, contributing to a decrease in beef production nationally. The series of wildfires in the Panhandle this week is another blow as many ranchers tried to rebuild their herds and operations during the cooler months of the year.
What will the final death toll be?
According to Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, there are more than 10 million head of livestock in the region…
State Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller told The New York Times that the Panhandle is home to roughly 85% of Texas’s cattle herds.
The region supports over 10 million head of livestock. Most of the cattle are kept in feedlots and dairy farms as farmers and ranchers attempt to shield their herds from the wildfires, Miller said.
“There are millions of cattle out there, with some towns comprising more cattle than people,” Miller told The Wall Street Journal.
Even before this disaster erupted, supplies of beef were really tight.
At this point, the size of the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since 1951, and the size of the Canadian cattle herd is the smallest in 30 years…
Canada is the next nation to report a multi-decade low cattle herd.
At the beginning of the year, the USDA reported the lowest total U.S. head since 1951 at a little more than 87 million.
Now, Statistics Canada is reporting the Canadian cattle herd is at its lowest level in more than 30 years, totaling just 11 million cattle and calves on farms.
And even without the tragedy in Texas, we were already being warned that the U.S. cattle herd would get even smaller this year because we are looking at the “smallest beef calf crop since 1948”…
But that supply of feeder cattle will likely tighten during the rest of this year. The smallest beef calf crop since 1948, brought on by drought and high feed prices and the contraction of the beef cow herd, along with a significant decrease in replacement beef heifers, means that there won’t be as many cattle to put in feedlots to replace those going out.
Beef is now considered to be a “luxury meat”, and prices are only going to go higher throughout the remainder of 2024.
So if you enjoy beef, I would stock up now.
Of course it isn’t just beef that is going to become more expensive.
All over the western world, “green policies” are making things extremely challenging for farmers and ranchers.
During a recent appearance on Fox News, one industry insider warned that more U.S. farmers are going out of business “every day”…
While nationwide organizations like the FFA are going strong and statewide affairs like the annual Pennsylvania Farm Show and Iowa State Fair continue to draw exhibitors and guests alike, beneath the surface are troubling signs, two guests on “The Ingraham Angle” warned this week.
Globalist “green” policies as well as inflation and rising costs have led to thinner herds, and in some instances, foreclosure or shuttering of farms altogether, bringing with them a potential domestic food crisis, they said.
“Farmers are going out of business every day,” said John Boyd Jr., founder of the Black Farmers of America.
We have already seen farmers engage in wild protests all over Europe, and it is probably just a matter of time before we see similar protests here in the United States.
But even if government control freaks left our farmers alone, they would still have to deal with weather patterns that have gone completely nuts.
For example, this weekend an absolutely massive blizzard dumped up to 12 feet of snow on some parts of California, and wind gusts in some areas actually reached 190 miles per hour…
Hundreds of miles of California highways remained shut down Sunday as a powerful blizzard pounded parts of the Golden State and Mountain West with snow totals that could reach 12 feet amid howling winds with gusts that hit 190 mph − well above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 hurricane.
National Weather Service meteorologist William Churchill warned of “life-threatening concern” for residents near Lake Tahoe, calling the storm, now in its third day, an “extreme blizzard.” Areas of Nevada, Utah and Colorado were also affected.
“Moderate to heavy snow has persisted overnight across the northern Sierra Nevada,” the National Weather Service in Sacramento said in a social media post Sunday. “Wind gusts … are continuing to result in blizzard conditions.”
As I sit here, I am having a hard time even imagining what a blizzard with 190 mph winds would look like.
I cannot remember anything like this ever happening before.
But the truth is that weird storms like this will be the new normal.
Weather patterns all over the globe are breaking records, and that is making it really difficult for farmers and ranchers to do their jobs.
We have entered a time when a confluence of factors is creating a “perfect storm” for global food production, and global hunger has been steadily on the rise since 2015.
Sadly, the outlook for the years ahead is exceedingly bleak. The amount of food that will be produced won’t even be close to what is needed to feed everyone on the planet, and so there will be a mad scramble for whatever is available.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
END
What would you expect? The flood of migrant children has put an estimated $2 billion strain on the public school system
(zerohedge)
Flood Of Migrant Children To Put Estimated $2 Billion Strain On Public School System
WEDNESDAY, MAR 06, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Last month, CBO Director Phill Swagel claimed that the influx of illegal immigrants into the United States will boost 2023-2034 GDP by “about 7 Trillion.”
Yet while we wait for those unicorn farts to percolate, the Heritage Foundation estimates in a new report that the influx of migrants is costing American taxpayers billions of dollars, as most of the 470,000 unaccompanied migrant children who have entered the country since Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration have been enrolled in public schools.
In FY2023 alone, CBP encountered 145,474 accompanied and unaccompanied minors nationwide – which, based on the national average of $16,345 spent per student, would increase national education spending by more than $2 billion for one year, according to the Heritage report’s fact sheet.
The report looked at instances in California, New York, Texas and Arizona where unaccompanied minors were sent to sponsors, according to data from the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), a government agency under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
For example, in California, 11,121 unaccompanied migrant children were sent to sponsors. If all those children enrolled in public school, at the state average spending of $16,975 per pupil, that equates to an additional cost of about $189 million for one year.
The report similarly found that in New York, 8,477 unaccompanied migrant children were sent to sponsors. The state spends $28,261 on each pupil per year, making the total additional cost to taxpayers close to $240 million for one year. –Fox News
“Parents should not also have to worry about their kids going to the back of the line in terms of school resources, teacher attention, and academic rigor due to sudden and large influxes of illegal aliens into their schools and classrooms,” Heritage scholars and two of the report’s authors, Lindsey Burke and Lora Ries, told Fox News Digital.
The report also highlights the misuse of school property, classroom mismanagement and limited English proficiency, which is holding other students back.
As an example, Fox News cites the case of New York City parents who were furious with city officials after Brooklyn Hight School students were forced to stay home for virtual lessons so that migrants could pile into the school gymnasium. Other reports suggest that NY Public Schools have struggled to educate some 20,000 new migrant students
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
Andrew Cuomo Subpoenaed In GOP-Led Probe Of Nursing Home COVID Deaths
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 12:05 PM
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
More than two years after New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace, a House subcommittee on Tuesday issued a subpoena for him to testify about COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes across the state during his tenure.
In a letter to the former governor, the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic demanded that he testify about his March 2020 directive that ordered long-term care facilities to take in patients infected with COVID.
“This misguided decision effectively admitted thousands of COVID-19 positive patients into nursing homes, causing predictable but deadly consequences for New York’s most vulnerable,” the Republican-led subcommittee told Mr. Cuomo, who was hailed by Democrats and members of the mainstream media for his leadership during the early days of the pandemic.
In addition to the March 2020 order itself, the subcommittee said they have found “troubling evidence” suggesting the Cuomo administration “at best downplayed” the order’s impact and “at worst covered them up.”
Death Numbers
One example the subcommittee cited is a January 2021 report complied by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who recently gained national attention for initiating a civil lawsuit that led to a historic $454 million fine on former President Donald Trump.
In that 76-page report, Ms. James rebuked the Cuomo administration’s official tally of about 8,700 nursing home residents who died from COVID-19, accusing the state of depressing the death toll by only counting those that occurred in the facilities while leaving out anyone who had died after being transferred to a hospital.
Extrapolating from a survey of about 10 percent of New York’s nursing homes, Ms. James estimated that the actual number of COVID deaths related to such facilities “may have been undercounted by as much as 50 percent.” Just hours after the report’s release, the state’s Department of Health (DOH) added some 3,800 hospital deaths, bringing the official number up to 12,473.
In the week following the report, the state DOH website updated the number again, which was then 13,163. A week after that, a group of Senate Democrats released a letter the Cuomo administration gave them. That letter raised the total COVID-19 death toll in nursing homes and other adult-care facilities to 15,049, apparently underscoring Ms. James’ estimate.
‘Unwillingness to Cooperate’
The subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), said they have been contacting Mr. Cuomo to schedule a voluntary interview since last March. However, the former governor “repeatedly and consistently dismissed, deflected, or ignored all questions or requests” from the lawmakers, leaving them no choice but to issue a subpoena compelling his testimony.
“Your unwillingness to seriously cooperate with our requests and to negotiate a reasonable date to participate in a transcribed interview has unjustifiably delayed our investigation,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter. “This is unacceptable.”
Rita Galvin, an attorney for Mr. Cuomo, disputed such characterization, saying that she had previously provided the subcommittee with multiple dates for an August interview but never got any response until Tuesday.
“To be clear, Governor Cuomo has been and remains cooperative,” Ms. Glavin wrote in a letter to the subcommittee, urging the lawmakers to “reconsider issuing a subpoena.”
Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Mr. Cuomo, called the subpoena an “obvious press charade.” The former governor’s pandemic response, he said, has been reviewed by the Justice Department of both Trump and Biden administrations, as well as Congress and the Manhattan District Attorney, but none resulted in any charges.
“New York followed the guidance put forth by the Trump administration in March of 2020—as did other Democratic and Republican states,” Mr. Azzopardi said in a statement. “If they have a problem with that, they should look in the mirror. Congress knows this, but it’s not about the facts, this is about politics.”
A three-term governor and celebrated Democrat superstar who won an Emmy for his daily COVID briefings, Mr. Cuomo stepped down in August 2021, about a year after he reached the heights of his political career.
Although Mr. Cuomo’s downfall began with the scandal surrounding COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes, it was a series of allegations of sexual harassment and inappropriate workplace behavior that dealt a fatal blow to his political future. His resignation announcement came just one week after Ms. James released a separate report that gave credence to his accusers, paying the way for then-Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul to become the first woman to be elected to the Empire State’s top political office.
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Insanity
California Moves To Expand Zero-Down, Interest-Free Home Loan Program To Illegal Immigrants
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A controversial bill that would let illegal immigrants receive the same kind of homebuyer assistance as U.S. citizens has advanced in the California state legislature, drawing criticism from those who object to granting perks to people who break the law by entering the country illegally.
The measure, Assembly Bill 1840, was first introduced in mid-January, and after several amendments, it advanced last week to the Committee on Housing and Community Development, where it awaits further action.
Assembly Bill 1840 would change existing law to allow illegal immigrants to be eligible for the California Dream for All Fund, which provides interest-free loans for a down payment on a home for first-time buyers.
The bill was introduced by California Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, a Democrat, who last month told GV Wire, a Fresno-based news outlet, that he “wanted to ensure that qualified first-time homebuyers include undocumented applicants.”
Last week, as the bill advanced to committee after amendments, Mr. Arambula told the Los Angeles Times that, historically, homeownership has been the main way people accumulate generational wealth in the United States.
“The social and economic benefits of homeownership should be available to everyone,” he said, arguing that it’s wrong to exclude people from the benefits of the California Dream for All Fund program just because they’re illegal immigrants.
Some lawmakers expressed opposition to the measure as it moves closer to becoming law.
“Assembly Bill 1840 is an insult to California citizens who are being left behind and priced out of homeownership. I’m all for helping first-time homebuyers, but give priority to those who are here in our state legally,” California Sen. Brian Dahle, a Republican, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
More Details
The California Dream for All Fund program, administered by the state’s Housing Finance Agency, provides loans for 20 percent of a home’s value but no greater than $150,000.
Qualifying homebuyers repay the loans when selling or transferring the property plus 20 percent of any appreciation in its value. Applicants who earn less than their county’s area median income get a slight break, having to pay 15 percent of the appreciation. If a home doesn’t appreciate in value, only the principal will be paid back, meaning the loan is technically interest-free.
The proposed bill seeks to amend Section 51523 of the California Health and Safety Code to include a subsection that reads: “An applicant under the program shall not be disqualified solely based on the applicant’s immigration status.”
Mr. Arambula has defended the program, arguing in the interview with GV Wire last month that it won’t affect the state budget because the loans are supposed to be paid back with an appreciation fee.
Even though the net impact of the program on the state budget is technically neutral-to-positive, some critics argue that it sends the wrong message and effectively rewards illegal immigration.
“We have a huge housing crisis in California and anything we can do to get people into housing we should do. However, we should help our own first. This next generation of people growing up can’t afford a house. I’ve got two kids in their early 30s and most of their friends do not own houses,” San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican, told NBC 7 San Diego.
Mr. Desmond has been a vocal critic of policies that he says create incentives for people to enter the country illegally.
“You incentivize illegal immigration by providing free healthcare, free unemployment benefits and tons of other freebies,” he wrote in a recent post on X, reacting to a post by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who called on Congressional Republicans to back President Joe Biden’s border deal.
“It’s no wonder we are getting thousands of people by the day. This is on you as much as the Federal Government,” Mr. Desmond added.
Mr. Desmond said on March 3 that over 5,000 illegal immigrants had been released in San Diego County over the past 10 days.
“What’s striking about the people being dropped here by the Border Patrol is about 70 percent of them are single males,” he told Fox News.
While many of the new arrivals are being taken to the airport by local nongovernmental organizations to fly out to someplace else in the country, Mr. Desmond lamented that “in the meantime, our airport is now the new migrant shelter.”
His remarks come as the United States remains in the throes of an illegal immigration crisis of historic proportions, with some border patrol officials and others warning of a national security risk.
Military-Aged Men Crossing Border
The head of the Border Patrol union recently warned about the sharp rise in the number of military-aged Chinese men crossing the U.S.–Mexico border illegally.
National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said in a recent interview on “Just the News, No Noise” TV program that he believes some of them may be spies working on behalf of China’s communist regime to infiltrate the United States.
“At best, they’re here for a better life,” Mr. Judd said. “At worst, they’re here to be part of the Chinese government to infiltrate our own country.”
His remarks came as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released its latest data for January encounters with illegal immigrants who crossed the border into the United States.
Aside from showing that Border Patrol agents encountered a record number of illegal immigrants (242,587) in January 2024 compared to any previous January, the CPB numbers show an alarming trend in the number of military-aged Chinese nationals entering the country illegally.
Border Patrol agents encountered 5,717 single Chinese adults in January, more than twice the number of any other January on record, CBP data shows. In December 2023, that figure rose to a record of 7,581, while the total since January 2023 stands at 64,979.
Some analysts say that deteriorating economic conditions in China, along with human rights abuses and policies such as strict COVID-19 lockdowns, are likely driving the increase.
The San Diego Sector has seen a more than 500 percent jump in the number of Chinese nationals entering the country illegally, according to Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol.
Rudy Blalock contributed to this report.
END
Hypocrisy galore!
(Jonathan Turley)
NY Times Faces Claims Of Hypocrisy Over Coverage Of The Deployment Of Troops
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 10:45 AM
Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has a right to be a tad confused. The senator noted the matter-of-fact coverage by The New York Times that Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s plan to send troops to New York City to crack down on crime. Cotton posted a “hmmm” note that simply read: “Sending in the troops to help restore law and order…” His point was that, roughly four years ago, the newspaper publicly denounced him after running his opinion piece calling for the use of national guard troops to quell violent riots in Washington.
The Cotton column led to editors being forced out after public confessions and recriminations. Now, after Democratic politicians actually ordered such a deployment, the Times has offered little more than a journalistic shrug.
Hochul announced she will be deploying 750 members of the National Guard to New York City’s subway system to assist the New York Police Department (NYPD) in the crackdown on crime, including bag searches at the entrances of busy train stations.
I have previously written on the hypocrisy of the Times in how it has handled the Cotton affair. The column itself was historically accurate. Indeed, critics never explained what was historically false (or outside the range of permissible interpretation) in the column. Moreover, writers Taylor Lorenz, Caity Weaver, Sheera Frankel, Jacey Fortin, and others said that such columns put black reporters in danger and condemned publishing Cotton’s viewpoint.
In a breathtaking surrender, the newspaper apologized and not only promised an investigation in how such an opposing view could find itself on its pages but promised to reduce the number of editorials in the future:
“We’ve examined the piece and the process leading up to its publication. This review made clear that a rushed editorial process led to the publication of an Op-Ed that did not meet our standards. As a result, we’re planning to examine both short term and long term changes, to include expanding our fact-checking operation and reduction the number of op-eds we publish.”
The sacking of Bennet had its intended effect. Writers and columnists with opposing or critical views were soon forced off newspapers around the country, including at the New York Times.
Editor Adam Rubenstein was also forced out at the paper and recently wrote a scathing account of the bizarre environment within the paper.
The writers have condemned the “both sideism” of allowing conservative viewpoints in the newspaper and insisted that Cotton and others must be banned as favoring potential violent actions against protesters. Yet, the newspaper has published people with anti-free speech and violent viewpoints in the last year. While the New York Times stands by its declaration that Cotton should never have been published, it had no problem in publishing “Beijing’s enforcer” in Hong Kong as Regina Ip mocked freedom protesters who were being beaten and arrested by the government.
Indeed, just before the anniversary of the Cotton controversy, the New York Times published a column by University of Rhode Island professor Erik Loomis, who brushed off the murder of a conservative protester and said that he saw “nothing wrong” with such acts of violence. Loomis’ article on “Why The Amazon Workers Never Stood A Chance” did not include his earlier violent rationalization. It was in my view a worthy and interesting column for publication. So was Cotton’s column.
While many today still claim that the protests around the White House were “entirely peaceful” and there was no “attack on the White House,” that claim is demonstrably false. As I discussed in my testimony to Congress, there was in fact an exceptionally high number of officers injured over the course of days of protests around the White House. In addition to a reported 150 officers injured (including at least 49 Park Police officers around the White House), protesters caused extensive property damage including the torching of a historic structure and the attempted arson of St. John’s. The threat was so great that Trump had to be moved into the bunker because the Secret Service feared a breach of security around the White House.
Notably, later during the January 6th riot, there were no recriminations for the use of the same fencing and national guard troops to protect the Capitol, albeit too late to have prevented the initial riot.
So now it is a Democratic leader who is not just calling for the use of troops but actually deploying them in New York City. It is part of an effort by many Democrats to change course on crime and immigration before the 2024 election after years of criminal law reforms and sanctuary city policies.
What is clear from the Times coverage is that there is still no sense of compulsion at the newsroom to be consistent or even self-aware. Outrage remains entirely selective and political. There is no hashtag campaign by writers or repeating the same line that “running this put Black @nytimes staff in danger.”
The selective outrage directed at Sen. Cotton and the termination of editors at the newspaper were troubling enough. However, what is even more troubling is the unwillingness of the paper to apologize to Sen. Cotton for this hypocritical and unfair treatme
There Is A War On Free Speech, And They Won’t Ever Be Satisfied Until It Is Completely Eradicated
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,
The freedom to say whatever we want is one of the most fundamental rights in a free society. If we are not free to speak up, it is is just a matter of time before all of our other rights are taken away as well. So it should deeply alarm all of us that free speech is under attack like never before. Much of the population has become convinced that “hate speech” is a special class of speech that does not deserve protection. Of course in practice “hate speech” ends up being whatever forms of expression that the leftist elite hate. That is why “hate speech” laws are always written so vaguely. That way they can be used to go after whoever the leftist elite feel like going after at the time.
It is not always easy to have a society where people are allowed to say whatever they want. People say things all the time that deeply, deeply offend me. And there are some that have said things about me that are tremendously hateful and untrue.
But if we are going to have a free society, people have got to be free to say whatever they want. So we should never support freedom of speech being taken away from anyone, because once we start going down that slippery slope it is just a matter of time before they come after our freedom to say what we want.
That is why what is happening in the state of Washington is so alarming. A new law would allow private individuals to collect up to $2,000 every time they report someone to the new “hate crimes and bias incidents hotline”…
Senate Bill 5427, after it is signed into law, would allow private individuals (note: this is not limited to American citizens) to report “bias incidents*” (see definition below) to the State Attorney General’s Office, with the possibility of receiving up to $2,000 of taxpayers money for this noncriminal incident. The bill was very clear: this is a non-crime which they will then forward to local law enforcement to investigate. What’s to investigate? No crime, no investigation.
The Progressives & Marxists who sponsored this bill say it is intended to help “victims of hate crimes” before a crime even happens. Say what? In reality, SB 5427 would create a “tattletale hotline,” undermine legitimate criminal investigations, and freeze, not just chill, speech & the press in Washington State. People will stop talking to others and writing to others except very close friends & relatives, for fear a greedy “Karen” will report them to Washington’s version of the Gestapo.
This is crazy.
Do we live in East Germany now?
It has been pointed out that those that use social media could make a fortune reporting their fellow citizens to the new “tattletale hotline”…
“Spend five minutes on Twitter on any given day and I assure someone would say something offensive under this law that we could call a ‘hate crime’ and collect $2,000 from the attorney general,” Conservative Ladies of Washington Founder and President Julie Barrett told the Senate Ways and Means Committee at a Feb. 20 public hearing. “It potentially target[s] people for actions they don’t like, but are not actually hate crimes. In collaboration with bills like HB 1333, this would create sort of a ‘tattletale hotline’ to report people one doesn’t agree with or doesn’t like.”
Of course we have seen similar efforts in other states.
In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul intends to massively expand the hate crime laws in her state…
Governor Kathy Hochul today highlighted her groundbreaking State of the State proposal to expand the list of charges eligible to be prosecuted as hate crimes and announced grant funding to strengthen safety and security measures at nonprofit, community-based organizations at risk of hate crimes or attacks because of their ideology, beliefs, or mission.
“The rising tide of hate is abhorrent and unacceptable – and I’m committed to doing everything in my power to keep New Yorkers safe,” Governor Hochul said. “Since the despicable Hamas attacks of October 7, there has been a disturbing rise in hate crimes against Jewish and Muslim New Yorkers. In recent years we’ve seen hate-fueled violence targeting Black residents of Buffalo and disturbing harassment of AAPI and LGBTQ+ individuals on the streets of New York City. We will never rest until all New Yorkers feel safe, regardless of who they are, who they love, or how they worship.”
And in Michigan, last year a bill was introduced that would have made it a felony if someone felt “terrorized, frightened, or threatened” by your words…
Last month, the Michigan House passed Bill 4474—legislation that would expand the state’s existing Ethnic Intimidation Act beyond current protections for religion, ethnicity and race, to categories including sexual orientation and gender identity or expression. HB 4474 would make it a felony hate crime offense to cause someone to “feel terrorized, frightened, or threatened” with words—deliberately misgendering someone, for example—subject to a potential penalty of five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.
The Left has been pushing its “words are violence” premise for some time. But Michigan’s willingness to go the extra mile and criminalize gender-related speech has summoned a ghoul from some dystopian fever dream.
I certainly do not like hate speech.
Every day, people say things that are horribly offensive to me.
But I support their right to say those things, because I don’t want my freedom of speech to be taken away.
And the leftist elite will never be satisfied until they take things as far as they possibly can.
For example, a new law in Canada allows courts to put people in prison for the rest of their lives for “hate crime offenses”…
It also amends the Criminal Code to create a new standalone hate crime offence that would allow penalties up to life imprisonment to deter hateful conduct, as well as raise the maximum punishments for hate propaganda offences from five years to life imprisonment for advocating genocide.
“I’m the father of two youngsters and, like parents and grandparents around Canada, I’m terrified by the dangers that lurk on the internet for our children,” said Justice Minister Arif Virani Monday, as the Liberals unveiled the bill.
“I’m also a Muslim. The hatred that festers online is radicalizing people and that radicalization has real world impacts for my community, and for so many other communities,” added Virani.
So what constitutes a “hate crime” in Canada?
Well, over the years the rules have been written so vaguely that they could be used to go after just about anything.
As a result, many Canadians are now deeply afraid to say anything that is even remotely “offensive”.
Now this new law which is being pushed by Justin Trudeau will make things even worse. If you can believe it, this new law would actually allow authorities to take certain kinds of actions even before a hate crime has been committed…
Trudeau’s bill is called Bill C-63, and it’s a “hate crime bill” that primarily affects “social media” and essentially “criminalizes a human emotion.”
“If you have quote ‘fear of hate’ … you can get a judge to issue a kind of restraining order against your enemy before he does anything, before he says anything, and that restraining order can include house arrest, giving up any lawful firearms, limiting who he can talk to directly or indirectly, limiting the places he can go, and requiring him to to take urine and blood tests – just because you are quote ‘afraid’ he might in the future say some hate speech,” he explains, adding that the so-called perpetrator “doesn’t have to have done anything in the past” to be required to go through the process, making it “a pre-crime bill.”
What in the world has happened to Canada?
Once upon a time, it was such a nice place to visit.
The laws that seek to restrict how we express ourselves are never enforced uniformly.
Instead, we have seen example after example where conservatives are specifically targeted.
Here in the United States, the left believes in being very soft on violent criminals, but they will go after pro-life activists with all the fury they can muster.
Right now, a 59-year-old grandmother is probably going to spend the rest of her life in prison because she was attempting to convince women not to go into an abortion clinic…
In prison, every move an inmate makes is controlled. Ms. Idoni, 59, is getting used to that. She must, because she is facing more than 41 years in prison—the rest of her natural life.
Her sentence is expected to be the longest in the United States for someone charged with violating the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances (FACE) Act, a 1994 law that prohibits interfering with anyone obtaining or providing “reproductive health services.” It was seldom used until the Supreme Court’s decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization reversed Roe v. Wade in June 2022, which returned abortion regulation to the states.
Her crime: sitting near or in front of the doors of abortion clinics to give sidewalk counselors a few moments to talk to women before their abortion appointments and potentially change their minds. Nine women out of 10 give them the middle finger and keep walking, Ms. Idoni said. But some women do change their minds, and sidewalk counselors say the life of every baby saved is worth the risk.
More than 60 million babies have been killed in the United States since 1973, but those responsible for the killing are not being held accountable.
Instead, those that are trying to do something about the relentless slaughter are being viciously targeted by authorities.
We really do live in an upside down society.
Good is being called evil, and evil is being called good.
And if you try to speak out about what is happening, you could find yourself in an enormous amount of trouble.
They intend to completely crush all dissent, and they will never stop until they have achieved their goal.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
KING REPORT//
| The King Report June 25, 2018 Issue 7195 | Independent View of the News |
| Powell Testimony at the House Financial Services Committee HighlightsPowell Reiterates Fed Needs More Confidence on Inflation to Cut – 10:19 ET“The committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”“If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain…”Number of Rate Cuts This Year Will Depend on the Economy – BBG 10:24 ETCan Approach Decision to Cut Carefully, Thoughtfully – BBG 10:26 ETDo Expect Broad, Material Changes to Capital Proposal – BBG 10:26 ETForecast Housing Services Inflation Will Come Down – BBG 10:32 ETCapital Proposal Could Lead Fed to Reconsider LT Debt – BG 10:39 ETTaking Close Look at Derivatives Part of Capital Rule – BBG 10:46 ETNo Reason to Expect US Recession in the Short Term – BBG 10:50 ETDon’t expect rate cuts imminently – AXS 10:56 ETRisk from Commercial Real Estate Is ‘Manageable’ – BBG 11:01 ET“This (CRE) is a problem we’ll be working through for several years… I do believe that it is a manageable problem.”Property Insurance Adding ‘Meaningfully’ to Inflation – BBG 11:34 ETNot Looking for Inflation to Reach 2% to Lower Rate – BBG 11:38 ETNegativity on Capital Proposal Unlike Anything I’ve Seen – BBG 11:40 ETWithdrawal of Capital Proposal Is a ‘Live Option’ – BBG 12:01 ETCommitted to Broad Consensus at Fed for Bank Proposal – BBG 12:02 ETShould Be Prepared to Be Surprised by Economy – BBG 12:09 ETIOER Doesn’t Impact Banks’ Incentive to Lend (BS!) – BBG 12:12 ET Stocks jumped, bonds rallied moderately, and commodities soared because Powell was not hawkish. ESHs traded mostly modestly higher but flat during Asian trading. When Europe opened at 3 ET, ESHs commenced an 18-handle rally that ended near 5:30 ET. ESHs went flat until another rally commenced after the 7 ET US Repo Market opening. Buying for the US Pump & Dump took ESHs to 5122.25 at the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. The dump started immediately; ESHs sank to 5097.75 at 10:06 ET. The Powell Rally then commenced. ESHs soared until they hit a daily high of 5134.50 at 12:31 ET. After a retreat to 5124.75 at 12:54 ET, ESHs formed a ‘W’ top. Astute traders knew what to do, they sold aggressively. ESHs sank to 5108.25 at 13:37 ET. Bulls immediately tried to rescue ESHs and stocks. They drove ESHs to 5126.00 at 13:45 ET. Sellers reappeared; ESHs sank to 5105.00 at 13:50 ET. At 11:55 ET, NY Community Bank (NYCB) collapsed, falling from 31.3 to 1.70. Trading was halted. At 14:05 ET, BBG reported: NYCB Raises More Than $1 Biln in Equity Led by Mnuchin’s Firm After the NYCB news hit the tape, ESHs vacillated in a wide range until they broke lower after NYCB resumed trading at 14:45 ET at a price of 4.18. Despite the jump in NYCB’s price, ESHs did not rally. @zerohedge: Powell says don’t worry about CRE… but the Fed is worried: mentions of Commercial Real Estate/CRE in the latest beige book hit a record 39. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1765463504675303810 ESHs quickly stabilized and re-entered its prior trading range. But NYCB broke down; so, ESHs followed. NYCB hit 3.01 at 15:00 ET and then bounced; so did ESHs, but only modestly. ESHs then broke lower. After hitting 5099.50 at 15:25 ET, the late manipulation took ESHs to 5116.50 at 15:48 ET. ESHs and stocks then traded sideways into the NYSE close. API shows Crude oil inventories increased 423k; +1.3m was expected. Gasoline inventories declined 2.8m; -1.4m was consensus. Distillates fell 1.8m; -400k was expected. The DoE shows Gasoline inventories dropped 4.46m, the biggest decline since November, -1.4m was expected. Oil and gasoline rallied sharply on the surprising inventory declines and on this: Ship on Fire and Drifting after Missile Attack Near Yemen – BBG 10:55 ET @NEWSMAX: “The problem here is that there’s no U.S. deterrents. The Iranians are not afraid of us. The Houthis are not afraid of us. And I think these attacks are going to continue.” — Fred Fleitz, foreign policy analyst https://twitter.com/NEWSMAX/status/1765438977387979103 Falling US State Tax Collections Threaten More Budget Pain – BBGMost states saw less revenue in the first half of fiscal 2024Arizona and California are among the states facing deficitsTotal state tax revenue sank in September for the 14th straight month on an inflation-adjusted basis, falling by 5.6% from a year earlier, according to a fresh analysis from the Washington-based Urban Institute. Of those that provided information, 34 of 46 states reported year-over-year declines… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-state-tax-revenue-drops-in-sign-of-tough-budget-decisions-ahead-1.1996937 Most people realize that the US government fudges economic data for political reasons. We learned decades ago that the best economic indicator is tax collection. Please note that while state tax collections have been declining, fiscal spending has escalated, and for the past few quarters has contributed greatly to US GDP. After the General Election, lookout!!!! @FrogNews: What are the odds that 11 of 12 job openings reports get revised lower? https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1765488708151570712 Positive aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds rallied during morning US trading Negative aspects of previous session Commodities, particularly oil & gasoline, soared; the dollar declined sharply Stocks got hammered in the afternoon; NYCB and CRE angst were factors Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the CRE crisis back on the front burner? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5108.32 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5127.97; 5092.22 Boeing is ‘not cooperating’ with NTSB investigation into mid-air blowout on Alaska Airlines flight https://trib.al/TUCkTg2 Chip Roy unveils bill to let Americans sue COVID-19 vaccine makers over injury, negative effects Republicans have long taken issue with COVID-19 vaccine mandates https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chip-roy-unveils-bill-americans-sue-covid-19-vaccine-makers-injury-negative-effects @CBSNews: Nikki Haley ended her GOP presidential campaign on Wednesday with a warning that it is “a moral imperative” for the U.S. to stand by its allies in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and that if it doesn’t, “there will be more war, not less.” https://cbsn.ws/49XI0Oc “Your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing.” — Dostoevsky @RNCResearch: MSNBC: Polling shows President Trump is “picking off Biden voters” — not the other way around https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1765438764673831080 @AP: The House passes a $460 billion package of spending bills, with the Senate passage likely before the midnight Friday shutdown deadline. After the close, Minneapolis Fed President asked the trenchant question: If the economy continues to be healthy, why would the Fed cut rates? “If we have a run rate that’s very attractive, people have jobs, businesses are doing well, inflation is coming back down, why do anything?” Is Kashkari chastising his brethren for advocating rate cuts to backstop The Big Guy’s re-election efforts? Kashkari said he sees only one or two rate cuts in 2024. Today – The probability is extremely high that Jerome Powell will reiterate his testimony from Wednesday at the House Financial Services Committee to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 ET. The usual suspects got jiggy yesterday when Powell was not hawkish. However, stocks tumbled in the afternoon, with NYCB being a factor. Unless Powell is noticeably more dovish at the Senate Banking Committee, stocks are likely to struggle based on renewed CRE angst and stocks’ recent lethargy. Expected Economic Data: Jan Trade -$63.5B; Q12 Nonfarm Productivity 3.1%, Unit Labor Costs 0.7%; Initial Jobless Claims 217k, Continuing Claims 1.88m; Jany Consumer Credit $10.0B; Powell at the Senate Banking Com. 10:00 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 10:30 ET ESUs are -13.25; NQHs are -74.75; USHs are -4/32 at 20:13 ET because Japan Nominal Cash Earnings for workers jumped 2% y/y in January from 0.8% y/y in December. 1.2% wage growth was expected. S&P Index 50-day MA: 4909; 100-day MA: 4685; 150-day MA: 4593; 200-day MA: 4542 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,215; 100-day MA: 36,563; 150-day MA: 35,844, 200-day MA: 35,421 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5104.76) – Trender BBG trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4455.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4860.59 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5013.41 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5073.07 triggers a sell signal @RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I better not start the questions. I’ll get in trouble.” He then sits there — dazed and confused (and frightened, a very sad sight)— as his handlers force the press out of the room. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1765107368507888063 @TuckerCarlson: Ep. 79 – Dr Keith Ablow is a psychiatrist who spent years on Fox News. He also treated Hunter Biden. Armed agents raided his office, took his patient records as well as Hunter’s laptop, and never charged him with a crime. What was this about? He talks about it for the first time. https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1765149038096359446 The US Supreme Court will hear arguments about Trump’s presidential immunity claim on April 25. NYPD is to bring back stop and search at subway stops says liberal Mayor Eric Adams in a bid to halt rampant violence – more than a decade after it was deemed ‘unconstitutional’ https://t.co/S0jtSM9GRe @nytimes : Gov. Kathy Hochul plans to deploy the National Guard and the State Police in New York City’s subway system, where they will patrol platforms and help check bags, after a series of violent crimes. https://nyti.ms/49E4JPn @CollinRugg: Violent crime is getting so bad in New York City subways that Gov. Kathy Hochul is deploying 1,000 total National Guardsmen, state police & MTA police to patrol them. Liberal policies have consequences. (And it is an election year!) We are old enough to remember when Dems asserted that ‘stop & frisk’ was racist and unconstitutional. Democrats are panicking over immigration, crime, and inflation, AKA Bidenomics. Man who crashed into Washington State Patrol trooper, killing him, in US illegally: ICE ICE says Raul Benitez Santana, 33, is a Mexican citizen https://www.foxnews.com/us/man-crashed-washington-state-patrol-trooper-killing-him-us-illegally-ice 8 teens shot while waiting for bus in ambush attack in Philadelphia https://trib.al/vYtbw7j | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON FRIDAY
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