MARCH 15 B/THE IDES OF MARCH//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $5.20 TO $2158.00/SILVER CLOSED UP 32 CENTS TO $25.18/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $7.70 TO $940.60 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $13.05 TO $1082.65//JAPAN ANNOUNCES THE END OF NEGATIVE RATES AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO RAISE ITS KEY I.R.//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL GREENLIGHTS THAT IT WILL SHUN BIDEN AND ENTER RAFAH//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/WEST BANK NEWS//HOUTHIS NEWS//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $69,874 DOWN 120 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $7.70 AT $940.60
Palladium price; UP 13.05 AT $1082.65
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 40 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD………
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2024. CONTRACT: 16 NOTICES FOR 1600 OZ or 0.0493 TONNES
total notices so far: 5172 contracts for 517,200 Oz (16.087 tonnes)
FOR MARCH:
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5114 for 25,570,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.86 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.86 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 32 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.: INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 417.866 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1109 CONTRACTS TO 148,533 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.09 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN MAJOR SHORT COVERING DESPITE THE PRICE LOSS. WE HAD A STRONG 522 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 522 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.09),BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3234 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF 9 CENTS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC SIZED 2125 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.270 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY,S 0.060 MILLION OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON //NEW TOTALS DECREASES TO : 26.920 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 26.920 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 522 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 669 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MARCH
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 18,720 contracts: OR 93.600 MILLION OZ (1701 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 93.600 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 93.600 MILLION OZ//WILL BE MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH//MAYBE CLOSE TO A RECORD ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1109 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2125 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH. OF 23.385 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 0.060 MILLION OZ E.F.P/ JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 26.920 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 3234 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 522 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (522) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.0150 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1083 CONTRACTS TO 539,571 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 313 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1083 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $12.20 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH. AT 10.270 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 50,000 OZ.
NEW TOTAL Of INITIAL GOLD STANDING RISES TO: 18.364 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $12.20 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1313 OI CONTRACTS (4.083) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3751CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 539,571
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1313 CONTRACTS WITH 1083 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2396 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1313 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): STRONG BUT SMALLER THAN BEFORE SIZED 3002 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2396 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1083) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1626 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 7.502 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1.555 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 18.364 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3002CONTRACTS//SOME SHORT COVERING AGAIN
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MARCH
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 59,681 CONTRACTS OR 5,968,100OZ OR 185,63 TONNES IN 11TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5948 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 185.63 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 185.63/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 185.63 TONNES//THIS IS GOING TO BE ONE HUMDINGER OF AN E,F,P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1083 CONTRACTS OI TO 148,533 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2125 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 2125 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1109 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2125 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3234CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 16.170 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.40 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240,77 PTS OR 1.42% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.74 PTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.63% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1960 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2037 /Oil UP TO 80.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84,76/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY SMALL 1083 CONTRACTS TO 539,571 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $12.20 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. MOST LIKELY IT WAS THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER WITH OUR SHORT PLAYERS EXITING AS FAST AS THEIR FEET COULD CARRY THEM. THE SHORTS HAVE BEEN KILLED LATELY, AS THEY HAVE BEEN LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR BANKER-HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2396 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2396 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2396CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1,313 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2396 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 1083 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $12.20 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A MUCH SMALLER SIZED 3002 CONTRACTS,
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR RECORD T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MARCH (18.340 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.340 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $12.20 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF1313 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOWER PRICE.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. THE HIGH T.A.S. ISSUANCE IS MEANT TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD (AS WELL AS INITIATE A RAID).
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 4.083 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MARCH. (10.3576 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 18.340 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $12.20
WE HAD -REMOVED 313 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1313 CONTRACTS OR 131300 OZ OR 4.083 TONNES. estimated volume today 331,590 strong
the latter 3: 39 kilobars 102 kilobars Manfra 165 kilobars
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
15,598.513 oz HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today
16 notice(s) 1600 OZ 0.0487 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
732 contracts 73,200 oz 2.276 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5172 notices 517200 oz 16.087 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 3
14,075.635oz HSBC JPMorgan; Loomis Manfra
the latter 3: 39 kilobars 102 kilobars Manfra 165 kilobars
total customer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into HSBC 15,598.513 oz
total deposit 15,598.513 oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 748 contracts having GAINED 477 contracts. We had 23 contracts filed upon on Thursday, so we gained a HUGE 500 contracts or an additional 50,000 oz of gold(1.555 tonnes) will stand at the comex in this non active delivery month of March
APRIL LOST 12,848 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 249,256.
MAY EARNED 65 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 711
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 10,676 CONTRACTS UP TO 231,255 CONTRACTS.
We had 16 contracts filed for today representing 1600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 10 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 16 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 16 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5172 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (748 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 16 x 100 oz per contract equals 590,400 OZ OR 18.364 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH. contract month: No of notices filed so far (5172) x 100 oz + (748) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (16) x 100 oz which equals 590,400 oz (18.364 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH: 18/364 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,875,735.178 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,736,608.131 (240.64 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,139,727.077 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,403443 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 199.17 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MARCH 15 THE IDES OF MARCH/INITIAL
//2024// THE MARCH 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1193,911.700 oz ASAHI Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
68,458.411 oz CNT Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
270 contracts (1.350 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5114 Contracts (25.570 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit:nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT: 67,490.811 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 967.00 ozz
total customer deposits 68,458.411 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/285.358 million or 45.61%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of ASAHI 1193,911.700 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 1022.400 oz
total withdrawal: 1193,911.700 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 48.213MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 285,358million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2023 OI: 273 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 12 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO LOST 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS COULD NOT WAIT FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE SO THEY FERRIED OVER TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 822
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 337 CONTRACTS UP TO 115,848.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 76,973 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 55,216 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5114 x 5,000 oz = 25,570,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (273) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH/2024 contract month: 5114 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH. (273) – number of notices served upon today (3 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MARCH contract month equates to 26.920 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 26.920 million oz.
There are 48.213 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD
//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
MARCH 6 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 5 WITH GOLD UP $16.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 4 WITH GOLD UP $30.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.77 TONNES
MARCH 1 WITH GOLD UP $40.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB29/WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB27/WITH GOLD UP $4.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB23/WITH GOLD UP $17 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB22/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.82 TONNES
FEB21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 29.82 TONNES
FEB20/WITH GOLD UP $16.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.89 TONNES
FEB16/WITH GOLD UP $8,60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.31 TONNES
FEB15/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
GLD INVENTORY: 816.86 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
CLOSING INVENTORY 417.866 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
end
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/ SIMON WHITE..//
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA
Brilliant! and Russia will surely listen:
AP
European Parliament says Russia should return Romania’s World War I gold
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-03-14 19:44 Section: Daily Dispatches
Now what about the Russian assets recently frozen in Europe?
* * *
From the Associated Press Thursday, March 14, 2024
BUCHAREST, Romania — Lawmakers in the European Parliament today adopted a non-binding resolution saying Russia should return to Romania gold and other valuable heritage items that were sent to Moscow during World War I for safekeeping, a Romanian lawmaker said.
During World War I, the kingdom of Romania sent by railroad 91.5 metric tons of gold coins and ingots to Moscow, along with jewels and cultural treasures such as works of art. In the war, Romania had sided with Russia, Britain, and France, against Germany and the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires.
During World War I, the kingdom of Romania sent by railroad 91.5 metric tons of gold coins and ingots to Moscow, along with jewels and cultural treasures such as works of art. In the war, Romania had sided with Russia, Britain, and France, against Germany and the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires.
The gold was confiscated after the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia in 1917. In later years efforts by Romania to recover the gold came to nothing. Some cultural items were returned by Soviet authorities in 1935 and 1956 — but not the gold. …
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT
end
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/COPPER
Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 02:25 PM
After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world’s “other” most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China’s comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.
Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.
Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.
Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.
As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.
Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.
And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.
In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.
On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.
“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”
* * *
Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman’s commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).
As Goldman’s Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled “Copper’s time is now” (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)…
… there has been a “turn in the industrial cycle.” Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, “incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022.” As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’
Here are the details:
Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.
Goldman then turns to what it calls China’s “green policy put”:
Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.
Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman’s long-running bullish view on copper – a global supply shock – continues:
Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week’s China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China’s copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’
Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.
The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.
Dems nervous that so much money is going to cryptos and thus hurting the dollar
(zerohedge)
Desperate Dems Demand SEC Block All Future Crypto ETFs, Pressure Brokers Due To “Enormous Risks”
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 08:06 AM
For the 9th straight day (and 15th of the last 16), Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
…lifting the total net inflow of assets to $12BN in 44 trading days…
Source: Bloomberg
The unprecedented success of these new investment vehicles in democratizing access to an alternative currency (away from the manipulative money-printing largesse of bigger and bigger government) is apparently pissing Democrats off.
And so, having seen Senator Warren fail in her constant pressure efforts to stop SEC Chair Gary Gensler approving Bitcoiin ETFs, two Democrat Senators are urging the SEC to block any further crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) to protect retail investors from risks associated with poor broker disclosure and thin liquidity in major cryptocurrencies.
As CoinDesk reports, Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) write that a FINRA survey disclosed that 70% of brokers’ communications with retail investors violated fair disclosure rules.
“Brokers’ communications falsely equated cryptocurrency with cash; in others, they provided misleading explanations of cryptocurrency’s risks,” they wrote.
“These alarming deficiencies raise significant concerns that brokers and advisers may now provide incomplete and deceptive information about bitcoin ETPs to retail investors.”
The Senators also argue that by naming bitcoin exchange-traded funds as such, the name “obfuscates important characteristics about these investments.”
“Retail investors should be made aware of how these ETPs differ from more common funds which they may have experience,” they said in the letter, writing that bitcoin is not subject to the same protections under the Investment Company Act of 1940 that ETFs which hold shares of various companies would have.
The two lawmakers also say that bitcoin (BTC) – which they call the most established and scrutinized cryptocurrency – is displaying weakness, and other cryptos are far more susceptible to misconduct.
“We do not believe that other cryptocurrencies show the trading volumes or integrity to support associated ETPs,” they wrote.
“Retail investors would face enormous risks from ETPs…whose prices are especially susceptible to pump-and-dump or other fraudulent schemes.”
WTF are you talking about! BTC ETF volumes have been enormous…
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSFRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1960
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2037
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.40 PPTS OR 0.54%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 240.77 PTS OR 1.42%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.76 PTS OR 0.26%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.97 EURO RISES TO 1.0891 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.772 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.70/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4335***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.664* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.223…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.264
3j Gold at $2160.00 silver at: 25.16 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.23//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.70// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.772% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8820 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9608 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.283 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.409 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.694 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.22…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 10 BASIS PTS AT 4.142
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Gain As Ides Of March “Quad Witching” Looms
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 08:32 AM
S&P futures are modestly in the green, paying no attention to today’s historical “Ides of March” cautionary date as we continue higher ahead of today’s quad witching day, and after the latest hot PPI data which weakened the case for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of 8:15am, S&P futures were up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% with Goldman’s Michael Nocerino writing that the market bid this morning follows a heavier tape yesterday with PPI coming in stronger than expected (boosting PCE est for next week + pushing market pricing of rate cuts in June to 54% from 68%).
Europe’s Estoxx 50 gained 0.5% in London session with outperformance in banks, healthcare energy, telecom but weakness from the luxury sector (Brunello Cuccinelli earnings) and tech underperforming; earlier Asia was mixed/mostly lower. Elsewhere, 10Y yields are unchanged around 4.29%, WTI futures are lower by 0.5%, unwinding some of this week’s aggressive rally. The dollar is flat while the yen dropped even after Japan’s largest union group announced stronger-than-expected annual wage deals, keeping the prospect of policy tightening from the BOJ next week on the table. USDJPY rises 0.3% to ~148.70 as a clueless Mrs Watanabe remains firmly in control. Bitcoin tumbled overnight after hitting a new record high above $73,000 just hours earlier. Headlines fairly quiet, with a lot of market attention pulled forward to next week’s NVDA AI developer conference, a potential hike from the BoJ, and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Doubts about whether policymakers can take their foot off the monetary brake are creeping into otherwise bullish markets that have taken stock indexes to fresh highs. European stocks are on track for their eighth consecutive week of gains — the longest winning streak since 2018 — lifted by conviction that euro-area interest rates will start to fall in the coming months. Equities could face additional volatility with Friday’s multiple options expiry, known as a triple witching. Markets are now especially vulnerable to any setback, either in optimistic economic outlooks or bets on monetary easing, according to Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Company Ltd.
“I think we’re getting to a more challenging period in markets because we’ve had all of the good news,” Miller said. “There isn’t much risk premium priced into risk assets and therefore if any of the following happen, namely if we don’t have a soft landing or no landing or if we don’t have a rate cut this year, that’s going to becomes a problem for the market.”
European stocks edge higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2% and on track for their eighth consecutive week of gains — the longest winning streak since 2018 — lifted by conviction that euro-area interest rates will start to fall in the coming months. Telecom and auto shares are the best performers while among individual movers, Swisscom gains as the operator says it agrees to buy Vodafone Italia for €8 billion. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
HelloFresh shares advance as much as 8.5%, recovering slightly from a slump triggered by its shock warning last week, after the meal-kit maker reported detailed full-year earnings which analysts said contained no surprises. While free cash flow was better than consensus analyst forecasts, the report showed a 7% y/y decline in active customers, suggesting the German firm is still struggling to attract customers for its core meal-kit business in both the US and other international markets.
IAG shares climb as much as 4.7% after a double upgrade to outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, which says the airline group has addressed all the issues in the broker’s bear case. Wizz Air has its rating cut as it continues to deal with capacity constraints after Pratt & Whitney engine issues grounded some of its fleet.
Hypoport rises as much as 6.7%, heading for its highest close since August 2022, as BNP Paribas Exane says the German financial services platform is reaching an inflection point and upgrades its rating to outperform.
Galp rises as much as 6.9% after the Portuguese oil company said after the close of trading on Thursday that it successfully drilled the Mopane-2X well in the PEL83 block in Namibia and found “a significant column with light oil in reservoirs of high quality.”
Brunello Cucinelli shares drop as much as 9.1% in Milan trading, the biggest decrease since March 2022, after the Italian luxury company reported net income for the full year that missed analyst expectations, due to higher tax charges.
Vonovia drops as much as 8.2% following its full-year results, which although overall in-line are seen as a “mixed bag” by Baader Helvea. The German real estate firm’s dividend proposal is ahead of expectations, but analysts are divided over the revised dividend policy going forward.
Shares of European chipmakers trade lower on Friday after Bloomberg News reported that the Chinese government has asked electric-vehicle makers to sharply increase their purchases from local auto chipmakers
Ahold slips as much as 1.6% after ING cuts the stock to hold from buy on expectation of “continued downward pressure” in the retailer’s US operations due to the macroeconomic environment and issues at its Stop&Shop brand.
EuroAPI falls as much as 31% to the lowest on record since the French drug-ingredients group was spun off from Sanofi in 2022. The firm suspended its outlook, with Oddo saying there is “no visibility” at this stage.
Intertek drops as much as 3.1%, a third day of declines since closing on Tuesday at highest since May 2022. Shore Capital cuts its rating on the testing and inspection company to sell from hold, saying valuation is rich.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, with Chinese and Korean stocks leading a broad regional selloff, after the latest US data was seen as discouraging the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, taking its loss this week to 1.7%. That’s after seven straight weekly gains, which marked the longest winning run since December 2020. The technology sector was the biggest drag on the regional benchmark on Friday, led by TSMC as analysts warned the stock’s rally had gone too far, too fast.
A measure of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong slid more than 2% to be Asia’s worst performer as the nation’s central bank drained cash from the financial system with a medium-term liquidity tool for the first time since November 2022. Still, the gauge is up about 15% from this year’s low in January thanks to the government’s measures to bolster the economy and markets.
“This is a healthy correction,” said Kerry Goh, chief investment officer at Kamet Capital Partners Pte. “I don’t think China is short on liquidity, but confidence to spend or invest. The draining of liquidity is probably one off to balance the amount of cash sitting in the system.”
In FX, the dollar extended gains for a second day, on course for the first weekly advance in four; G-10 currency traded mixed with Swiss franc and euro leading gains while commodity currencies underperformed. the yen is lower even after Japan’s largest union group announced stronger-than-expected annual wage deals, keeping the prospect of some form of policy tightening from the BOJ next week on the table. USD/JPY rises 0.3% to ~148.70. The kiwi is still the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% versus the greenback after some downbeat remarks from the finance minister.
In rates, treasuries traded in a narrow range with yields slightly cheaper across the curve and gains led by the long-end, unwinding a portion of Thursday’s aggressive selloff. US yields richer by up to 2bp across the long-end of the curve with both 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flatter by around 1bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.28% remain near top of Thursday’s session range and outperforming bunds and gilts both by 2bp in the sector. Bunds lag, after French inflation is revised higher and money markets trim pricing for potential ECB easing for a fourth day. The US session is set to focus on data, which includes industrial production and University of Michigan sentiment.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.6% to trade near $80.80 but near a four-month high after the IEA forecast a supply deficit through 2024, changing its earlier projection of a surplus, on the premise OPEC+ maintains production cuts. Copper, typically seen as a bellwether of the global economy, surged to $9,000 a ton, as bets that a pick-up in global manufacturing activity will push up demand for industrial commodities. Spot gold rises 0.4%. Bitcoin drops ~4%.
Bitcoin tumbled as much as 6% off its price, falling to as low as $65.5K, before paring the move back to around $68K.
Looking at today’s calendar, the US data calendar includes March Empire manufacturing, February import/export prices (8:30am), industrial production, capacity utilization (9:15am) and March University of Michigan sentiment (10am). There are no scheduled Fed speakers due before the March 20 policy decision; we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta, Vujcic and Lane.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,152.75
MXAP down 1.0% to 174.65
MXAPJ down 1.5% to 533.00
Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,707.64
Topix up 0.3% to 2,670.80
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 16,720.89
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,054.64
Sensex down 0.5% to 72,710.31
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,670.28
Kospi down 1.9% to 2,666.84
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 506.03
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
Euro little changed at $1.0886
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $85.05/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,166.23
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.43
Top Overnight News
China left its 1-year MLF (Medium-Term Lending Facility) rate unchanged (as expected) and withdrew liquidity from the banking system as the gov’t prioritizes currency stability over stimulus. RTRS
China’s home prices continued to fall in February, underscoring the challenge for authorities as they step up efforts to salvage the beleaguered market. BBG
The Chinese government has quietly asked electric-vehicle makers from BYD Co. to Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. to sharply increase their purchases from local auto chipmakers, part of a campaign to reduce reliance on Western imports and boost China’s domestic semiconductor industry. BBG
Japan’s unions reveal more evidence of robust wage hikes in the latest round of negotiations, providing further impetus for a BOJ rate increase next week. RTRS
OpenAI is in talks to raise money from Abu Dhabi for the firm’s new AI chip venture it hopes will reduce its reliance on Nvidia semiconductors. FT
Electricity demand in the US has been flat for nearly 20 years but is suddenly starting to surge on back of an explosion in data centers, a resurgence in domestic manufacturing, and the advent of electric vehicles. NYT
Vodafone sells its Italian business to Swisscom for an enterprise value of EU8B, and the company is updating its capital return framework, w/the dividend cut to 4.5p per share (from 9c) while the buyback is increased. RTRS
The US plans to award more than $6 billion to Samsung to expand beyond a project in Texas, people familiar said. Federal funding for the chipmaker would come alongside significant additional investment by the company. BBG
President Javier Milei’s sweeping executive decree was rejected by the Argentine Senate and now goes to the lower house of Congress, where a simple majority can scrap it. This is the first presidential edict in recent memory to be repealed by the senate. BBG
The focus on artificial intelligence (AI) has re-intensified in 2024. Initial ebullience about AI in 2023 drove a massive increase in public and investor focus on AI, as measured by search volumes and news stories. These measures plateaued in 2H 2023, albeit at a high level, but have surged again in 2024. Similarly, the share of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI on earnings calls dipped slightly from 35% in 2Q 2023 to 31% in 3Q 2023. However, the share increased to 37% in 4Q 2023, led by Info Tech and Comm Services. GIR
Earnings and company news
Adobe Inc (ADBE) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.48 (exp. 4.38), Revenue 5.18bln (exp. 5.14bln), announces new USD 25bln share repurchase program. Co. drove record Q1 revenue demonstrating strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. The chair and CEO said they have done an incredible job harnessing the power of generative AI to deliver ground-breaking innovation across our product portfolio. Co noted Q1 results and record RPO reflect strong customer adoption of their innovative products and services. Sees Q2 Adj. EPS USD 4.35-4.40 (exp. 4.39). Sees Q2 rev. 5.25bln-5.30bln (exp. 5.30bln). (Newswires) Shares -10.9% after-hours.
Apple (AAPL) – Buys AI startup DarwinAI as part of race to add features; has added dozens of DarwinAI staff to its AI division, according to Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined amid data-related headwinds from the US including hot PPI and weak Retail Sales. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in mining-related industries after iron ore resumed its slide. Nikkei 225 retreated amid cautiousness ahead of the RENGO wage announcement and its potential ramifications on BoJ policy as reports had suggested strong wage hikes could be the deciding factor on whether the BoJ hikes at next week’s crucial meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were negative with heavy losses in tech and property sectors in Hong Kong where the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell more than 3% after a steeper decline in Chinese New Home Prices, while the mainland was only marginally pressured after the PBoC kept its 1-year MLF rate unchanged and opted to not fully roll over the maturing amount.
Top Asian News
PBoC announced a CNY 387bln 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility operation vs. CNY 500bln maturing with the rate kept unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
China is said to tighten IPO listing requirements according to the regulator cited by Bloomberg.
China is reportedly urging EV makers to purchase local chips as the clash with the US escalates, via Bloomberg.
Chinese FX Regulator says foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic bonds by a net of USD 1.1bln in Feb; foreign holdings of Chinese onshore bonds remain at relatively high levels in Feb and foreigners net increase onshore stocks. Major economies expected to shift monetary policy stance in 2024, external liquidity tensions to ease and conducive to China’s FX market stability.
S&P Global Cuts outlook on China’s Vanke BBB+ Credit Rating to Negative from Stable
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.2%) began the session around the unchanged mark, before sentiment improved and edging into the green. European sectors are mixed; Telcoms takes the top spot, propped up by Vodafone (+4.5%) and Swisscom (+2.5%), whilst Real Estate is hampered by post-earnings losses in Vonovia (-6.1%). US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer with price action mimicking that seen in Europe; Adobe (-11.6% pre-market) is weaker after providing soft guidance.
Top European News
ECB’s Rehn reiterates data dependence, says inflation is set to enable easing to occur near the summer. On rates “… Therefore, there are no obvious reasons why adjustment measures could not be taken from the point of view of economic policy”. Subsequnt comments: Says at last week’s meeting of the ECB council we started a discussion about reducing the restrictive dimension of monetary policy and about when it is appropriate to begin lowering rates. If inflation continues to fall and according to our estimate, sustainably downwards towards the target. We can already slowly start easing our foot off the brake pedal monpol.
UK PM Sunak ruled out an early election on May 2nd and noted his working assumption is that the election would be held in H2.
The Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey: 1yr inflation expectation slips to 3% from 3.3%. Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3%, down from 3.3% in November 2023. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.8%, unchanged from 2.8% in November 2023. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.1%, down from 3.2% in November 2023. When asked about the future path of interest rates, 36% of respondents expected rates to rise over the next 12 months, down from 44% in November 2023.
German Economy Ministry says no tangible recovery yet in sight, according to a report.
FX
Contained trade for DXY and within 103.37-48 parameters, holding onto yesterday’s PPI and IJC-induced gains. Upside sees the 50 and 100DMA at 103.53 and 200DMA at 103.65. To the downside, little in the way of support until 103.
EUR/USD is unable to reclaim 1.09 with 1.0889 the high watermark for the session in quiet newsflow. If 1.09 is reclaimed, the 10DMA sits just above at 1.0905. Downside sees 1.0867 from 7th March.
Steady trade for GBP vs. USD as UK-specifics remain light ahead of a CPI, PMI, retail sales data and the BoE announcement next week. The range for Cable stands at 1.2731-1.2756.
JPY is pressured despite a strong outcome to the RENGO wage tally. Possibly a buy-the-rumour sell-the-fact move given that the data was expected to be on the hawkish side. Currently holds towards the upper end of a 148.83-04 range.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD but NZD more so amid cross-related buying in AUD/NZD. Antipodean-specific newsflow remains light ahead of the RBA next week.
Fixed Income
USTs are rangebound and remain around 110-06 following the hawkish PPI/IJC move yesterday, with support at 110-01+ from 14th Feb; focus turns to US Import Prices & UoM Inflation Expectations.
Bund price action is steady and relatively rangebound within a 131.31-99 range; ECB’s Lane to give remarks at 14:30 GMT / 10:30 ET.
Gilts are once again the incremental underperformer, but only modestly so and holding above the 98.00 mark and by extension last week’s 97.91 trough.
Fixed Income
Crude initially traded sideways, taking a breather following yesterday’s rally, before succumbing to some weakness into the European morning around the time details of the Hamas ceasefire proposal emerged; profit-taking may also be a factor. Brent Apr now holds below USD 85/bbl.
Firm trade in precious metals despite the stronger Dollar but against the backdrop of the global risk aversion experienced yesterday (and into APAC) coupled with the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East; XAU resides within yesterday’s USD 2.152-77.04/oz.
Base metals are higher across the board this morning as momentum picked up with Shanghai copper reaching near-three-year highs and 3M LME touched a 10-month peak.
Commerzbank lifts silver year-end price forecast to USD 29/oz.
JP Morgan believes that Russia can maintain oil exports at its current levels through June, even as it cuts crude production by 0.5mln BPD. Drop in Russian exports could spur price pressures of an additional USD 5/bbl to the forecast of USD 88-90/bbl by May and the mid-80/bbl region in H2-2024.
German Chemical Industry Association (VCI): 2023 production -7.9% Y/Y, Producer Prices -0.4% Y/Y; Revenue -12.2% Y/Y
Japan wage negotiations and upcoming rate hike
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are seeing a strong pay hike move in wage talks and the government is to mobilise all policy steps available to continue the wave of wage hikes, while he added that Japan is no longer in deflation.
A Reuters poll showed 35% of economists expect the BoJ to end negative rates in March and 62% expect April, while 31% of economists expect the BoJ to end YCC in March and 62% expect April.
Japanese Unions said to have won over 5% average (exp. 4.1%, demand 5.85%) in wage hike talks, according to Kyodo News
Japan RENGO 1st Wage Tally: 5.28% (exp. 4.1%; 2023 final figure 3.6%). Base Pay to rise 3.70% (Initial 2.33% in 2023). Japan’s FY24 pay increases is the largest in over three decades.
BoJ is reportedly making final arrangements to end negative interest rates at next week’s meeting, according to JiJi.
RENGO says part-timers wage hikes reached 6% for 2024.
Head of Japan’s biggest trade union confederation RENGO says rising inequality, inflation and labour crunch among factors behind big wage hikes.
Japanese government and BoJ are to keep the joint statement including the 2% price target, according to JiJi.
Geopolitics
At least 11 Palestinians were killed and 100 injured in Israeli forces targeting people waiting for humanitarian aid in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry cited by Reuters.
Australia’s Foreign Minister said Australia is to resume funding for UNRWA which is the UN’s main Palestinian relief agency.
US military said Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen towards the Gulf of Aden and two towards the Red Sea although there were no injuries or damage reported to US or coalition ships, while the US military said it destroyed nine anti-ship missiles and two drones in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, according to Reuters.
UKMTO received a report of an incident 76NM west of Yemen’s Hodeida and announced a merchant vessel was struck by a missile and sustained some damage, although the crew were reported safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
Hamas ceasefire proposal to mediators includes first stage of releasing Israeli women, children, elderly, and ill in exchange for 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the proposal seen by Reuters
Ambrey says a tanker was subject to a missile strike on the starboard side circa. 88NM north-west of Hodeidah, Yemen; damage report, no crew injuries.
Russia’s Kremlin, on French President Macron’s latest statement on Ukraine, says France is already involved in the war and has signaled it’s ready for deeper involvement
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
Feb. Import Price Index YoY, est. -0.8%, prior -1.3%
Feb. Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. -0.2%, prior 0.6%
Feb. Export Price Index YoY, est. -2.4%, prior -2.4%
Feb. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
09:15: Feb. Capacity Utilization, est. 78.5%, prior 78.5%
10:00: March U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
March U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.0%
March U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 75.1, prior 75.2
March U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 79.7, prior 79.4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The last 24 hours have seen a dramatic bond sell-off, with 10yr Treasury yields (+10.0bps) up to 4.29% as concerns mounted about stubborn inflation. The main driver was a strong US PPI report, which showed that producer prices were rising faster than expected in February. But alongside that, oil prices closed at their highest level since November, which added to fears that inflation was still gathering momentum. And on top of that, there was growing anticipation that the Bank of Japan would end their negative interest rate policy at next week’s meeting, which added to the upward pressure on global yields.
For markets, the big question is what this means for rate cuts. Up to now, futures had been focused on June as the most likely timing for the Fed’s first cut. But this week’s releases have led to growing doubts about that. For example, futures are now pricing in roughly a one-in-three likelihood that the Fed won’t cut at all by June. And for 2024 as a whole, just 76bps of cuts are priced in by the December meeting, which is the fewest so far this year. That’s a big turnaround from the start of the year, when 158bps of cuts were expected by December, and the first cut was fully priced in by March. So we’re seeing yet another hawkish repricing, which echoes several other points over the last couple of years when markets have priced in a dovish pivot before progressively dialling that back. Indeed, this pattern of pricing a dovish pivot has happened at least 7 times now in this cycle (we counted them before here), and on the previous 6 it was followed by even more hawkish outcomes.
That sets the stage for a very important week of central bank meetings ahead, with decisions from both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve next week. Notably at the Bank of Japan, there’s been growing anticipation that they’re about to end their negative interest rate policy, and investors are pricing in a 61% likelihood of a shift. That’s what DB’s economist is expecting in his own preview (link here), but we should get some important information today, as we’ll get the outcome of wage negotiations from Rengo, the country’s largest union group. Meanwhile at the Fed, the big question next week is what they’ll signal in their new dot plot, and whether the median dot still points towards three cuts for 2024, as happened in December.
In terms of the details of that PPI release yesterday, the main story was that headline PPI came in at +0.6% (vs. +0.3% expected), which pushed the year-on-year measure up to +1.6% (vs. +1.2% expected). Moreover, the measure excluding food, energy and trade services was up +0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected). So the release echoed the upside surprise in Tuesday’s CPI print, and led to growing concern that inflation was getting stuck above target levels. At the same time, that inflation narrative got further momentum from the latest uptick in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+1.65%) closing at $85.42/bbl, the highest since early November. The latest oil price rise was supported by the latest IEA report, which now foresees the oil market staying in deficit through 2024.
Admittedly, yesterday’s data wasn’t entirely hawkish, with US retail sales disappointing in February. But the weakness only served to dampen risk appetite further. Headline retail sales were only up by +0.6% in February (vs. +0.8% expected) with the previous month revised down to show a larger -1.1% decline. And the retail control group was flat in February (vs. +0.4% exp.) after falling by -0.3% in January. This means the 3-month change in retail control has turned negative for the first time since last April.
Nevertheless, it was the prospect of faster inflation and fewer rate cuts that dominated the rates reaction and led to a major global sell-off for sovereign bonds. In the US, that meant Treasuries lost ground for a 4th consecutive day, with yields on 2yr Treasuries (+5.9bps) up to 4.69%, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries (+10.0bps) rose to 4.29%. And there was evidence that investors were anticipating faster inflation, with the US 2yr inflation swap (+3.7bps) rising to 2.47%, its highest level since October. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.9bps), OATs (+7.1bps) and BTPs (+10.5bps) all moved higher as well. And overnight there’s only been a slight decline in yields, with those on 10yr Treasuries down -1.0bps to 4.28%.
For equities, it was also a difficult session yesterday. The S&P 500 was down -0.29%, but the decline was very broad with 79% of constituents down on the day and the equal-weighted version of the index (-0.95%) saw its worst daily performance in the past month. The decline was led by both interest-sensitive sectors (with real estate down -1.61% and utilities -0.81%) and consumer-oriented ones (consumer staples -0.78%). The small cap Russell 2000 was down -1.96% while the NASDAQ (-0.30%) and Magnificent 7 (-0.22%) saw moderate losses. It was another day of wide variation within the Mag 7, with large declines for Tesla (-4.12%) and Nvidia (-3.44%) but sizeable gains for Microsoft (+2.44%) and Alphabet (+2.37%). Back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.18%) fell back from its all-time high the previous day, but the CAC 40 (+0.29%) outperformed to close at a new record.
Overnight in Asia, those equity losses have continued across the region, with declines for the Hang Seng (-2.18%), the KOSPI (-1.63%), the CSI 300 (-0.57%), the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.20%). In China, that comes as the PBoC have left their 1yr medium-term lending facility rate at 2.5%. Moreover, they withdrew a net 94 billion yuan of cash from the banking system. Looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing to further weakness, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.08%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for February, along with the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for march, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for March. Alongside that, we’ll get Italian retail sales for January. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta, Vujcic and Lane.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities are firmer, JPY unreactive to RENGO and crude off best levels; UoM due – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 06:34 AM
Equities are mostly modestly firmer; Adobe lower in the pre-market after soft guidance
Dollar is flat, RENGO wage hike fails to lift the Yen
Bonds are contained at post-PPI lows and Gilts continue to underperform
Crude pulls back from best levels whilst copper holds at multi-month highs
Looking ahead, US Import Prices, Canadian Wholesale Trade, UoM Inflation Expectations, Comments from ECB’s Lane
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.2%) began the session around the unchanged mark, before sentiment improved and edging into the green.
European sectors are mixed; Telcoms takes the top spot, propped up by Vodafone (+4.5%) and Swisscom (+2.5%), whilst Real Estate is hampered by post-earnings losses in Vonovia (-6.1%).
US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer with price action mimicking that seen in Europe; Adobe (-11.6% pre-market) is weaker after providing soft guidance.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Contained trade for DXY and within 103.37-48 parameters, holding onto yesterday’s PPI and IJC-induced gains. Upside sees the 50 and 100DMA at 103.53 and 200DMA at 103.65. To the downside, little in the way of support until 103.
EUR/USD is unable to reclaim 1.09 with 1.0889 the high watermark for the session in quiet newsflow. If 1.09 is reclaimed, the 10DMA sits just above at 1.0905. Downside sees 1.0867 from 7th March.
Steady trade for GBP vs. USD as UK-specifics remain light ahead of a CPI, PMI, retail sales data and the BoE announcement next week. The range for Cable stands at 1.2731-1.2756.
JPY is pressured despite a strong outcome to the RENGO wage tally. Possibly a buy-the-rumour sell-the-fact move given that the data was expected to be on the hawkish side. Currently holds towards the upper end of a 148.83-04 range.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD but NZD more so amid cross-related buying in AUD/NZD. Antipodean-specific newsflow remains light ahead of the RBA next week.
USTs are rangebound and remain around 110-06 following the hawkish PPI/IJC move yesterday, with support at 110-01+ from 14th Feb; focus turns to US Import Prices & UoM Inflation Expectations.
Bund price action is steady and relatively rangebound within a 131.31-99 range; ECB’s Lane to give remarks at 14:30 GMT / 10:30 ET.
Gilts are once again the incremental underperformer, but only modestly so and holding above the 98.00 mark and by extension last week’s 97.91 trough.
Crude initially traded sideways, taking a breather following yesterday’s rally, before succumbing to some weakness into the European morning around the time details of the Hamas ceasefire proposal emerged; profit-taking may also be a factor. Brent Apr now holds below USD 85/bbl.
Firm trade in precious metals despite the stronger Dollar but against the backdrop of the global risk aversion experienced yesterday (and into APAC) coupled with the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East; XAU resides within yesterday’s USD 2.152-77.04/oz.
Base metals are higher across the board this morning as momentum picked up with Shanghai copper reaching near-three-year highs and 3M LME touched a 10-month peak.
Commerzbank lifts silver year-end price forecast to USD 29/oz.
JP Morgan believes that Russia can maintain oil exports at its current levels through June, even as it cuts crude production by 0.5mln BPD. Drop in Russian exports could spur price pressures of an additional USD 5/bbl to the forecast of USD 88-90/bbl by May and the mid-80/bbl region in H2-2024.
German Chemical Industry Association (VCI): 2023 production -7.9% Y/Y, Producer Prices -0.4% Y/Y; Revenue -12.2% Y/Y
ECB’s Rehn reiterates data dependence, says inflation is set to enable easing to occur near the summer. On rates “… Therefore, there are no obvious reasons why adjustment measures could not be taken from the point of view of economic policy”. Subsequnt comments: Says at last week’s meeting of the ECB council we started a discussion about reducing the restrictive dimension of monetary policy and about when it is appropriate to begin lowering rates. If inflation continues to fall and according to our estimate, sustainably downwards towards the target. We can already slowly start easing our foot off the brake pedal monpol.
UK PM Sunak ruled out an early election on May 2nd and noted his working assumption is that the election would be held in H2.
The Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey: 1yr inflation expectation slips to 3% from 3.3%. Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3%, down from 3.3% in November 2023. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.8%, unchanged from 2.8% in November 2023. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.1%, down from 3.2% in November 2023. When asked about the future path of interest rates, 36% of respondents expected rates to rise over the next 12 months, down from 44% in November 2023.
German Economy Ministry says no tangible recovery yet in sight, according to a report.
DATA RECAP
French CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Feb) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Feb) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
Polish CPI Final YY (Feb) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Rev. 3.7%); CPI Final MM (Feb) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5%.
Italian Consumer Prices Final YY (Feb) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%); Consumer Prices Final MM (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
Italian Retail Sales SA MM (Jan) 1.0% (Prev. -0.1%); Retail Sales NSA YY (Jan) -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Adobe Inc (ADBE) – Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.48 (exp. 4.38), Revenue 5.18bln (exp. 5.14bln), announces new USD 25bln share repurchase program. Co. drove record Q1 revenue demonstrating strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. The chair and CEO said they have done an incredible job harnessing the power of generative AI to deliver ground-breaking innovation across our product portfolio. Co noted Q1 results and record RPO reflect strong customer adoption of their innovative products and services. Sees Q2 Adj. EPS USD 4.35-4.40 (exp. 4.39). Sees Q2 rev. 5.25bln-5.30bln (exp. 5.30bln). (Newswires) Shares -10.9% after-hours.
Apple (AAPL) – Buys AI startup DarwinAI as part of race to add features; has added dozens of DarwinAI staff to its AI division, according to Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
At least 11 Palestinians were killed and 100 injured in Israeli forces targeting people waiting for humanitarian aid in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry cited by Reuters.
Australia’s Foreign Minister said Australia is to resume funding for UNRWA which is the UN’s main Palestinian relief agency.
US military said Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen towards the Gulf of Aden and two towards the Red Sea although there were no injuries or damage reported to US or coalition ships, while the US military said it destroyed nine anti-ship missiles and two drones in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, according to Reuters.
UKMTO received a report of an incident 76NM west of Yemen’s Hodeida and announced a merchant vessel was struck by a missile and sustained some damage, although the crew were reported safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
Hamas ceasefire proposal to mediators includes first stage of releasing Israeli women, children, elderly, and ill in exchange for 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the proposal seen by Reuters
Ambrey says a tanker was subject to a missile strike on the starboard side circa. 88NM north-west of Hodeidah, Yemen; damage report, no crew injuries.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin shed as much as 6% off its price, falling to as low as USD 65.5k, before paring the move back to around USD 68k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks declined amid data-related headwinds from the US including hot PPI and weak Retail Sales.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in mining-related industries after iron ore resumed its slide.
Nikkei 225 retreated amid cautiousness ahead of the RENGO wage announcement and its potential ramifications on BoJ policy as reports had suggested strong wage hikes could be the deciding factor on whether the BoJ hikes at next week’s crucial meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were negative with heavy losses in tech and property sectors in Hong Kong where the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell more than 3% after a steeper decline in Chinese New Home Prices, while the mainland was only marginally pressured after the PBoC kept its 1-year MLF rate unchanged and opted to not fully roll over the maturing amount.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC announced a CNY 387bln 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility operation vs. CNY 500bln maturing with the rate kept unchanged at 2.50%, as expected.
China is said to tighten IPO listing requirements according to the regulator cited by Bloomberg.
China is reportedly urging EV makers to purchase local chips as the clash with the US escalates, via Bloomberg.
Chinese FX Regulator says foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic bonds by a net of USD 1.1bln in Feb; foreign holdings of Chinese onshore bonds remain at relatively high levels in Feb and foreigners net increase onshore stocks. Major economies expected to shift monetary policy stance in 2024, external liquidity tensions to ease and conducive to China’s FX market stability.
S&P Global Cuts outlook on China’s Vanke BBB+ Credit Rating to Negative from Stable
OTHER
Russia’s Kremlin, on French President Macron’s latest statement on Ukraine, says France is already involved in the war and has signaled it’s ready for deeper involvement
JAPAN
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are seeing a strong pay hike move in wage talks and the government is to mobilise all policy steps available to continue the wave of wage hikes, while he added that Japan is no longer in deflation.
A Reuters poll showed 35% of economists expect the BoJ to end negative rates in March and 62% expect April, while 31% of economists expect the BoJ to end YCC in March and 62% expect April.
Japanese Unions said to have won over 5% average (exp. 4.1%, demand 5.85%) in wage hike talks, according to Kyodo News
Japan RENGO 1st Wage Tally: 5.28% (exp. 4.1%; 2023 final figure 3.6%). Base Pay to rise 3.70% (Initial 2.33% in 2023). Japan’s FY24 pay increases is the largest in over three decades.
BoJ is reportedly making final arrangements to end negative interest rates at next week’s meeting, according to JiJi.
RENGO says part-timers wage hikes reached 6% for 2024.
Head of Japan’s biggest trade union confederation RENGO says rising inequality, inflation and labour crunch among factors behind big wage hikes.
Japanese government and BoJ are to keep the joint statement including the 2% price target, according to JiJi.
DATA RECAP
Chinese House Prices YY (Feb) -1.4% (Prev. -0.7%).
Chinese M2 Money Supply (Feb): 8.7% Y/Y (exp. 8.8%); New Yuan Loans (CNY) 1.56tln (exp. 1.55tln).
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.40 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240,77 PTS OR 1.42% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.74 PTS OR 0.26%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.63% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1960 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2037 /Oil UP TO 80.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84,76/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
Japan will raise its rates for the first time in 17 years and thus the end of negative rates
(zerohedge)
BoJ Mouthpiece Confirms Historic End Of Negative Rates Next Week, 1st Hike In 17 Years
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 01:56 PM
For the past few weeks we have diligently reported on the fact that The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been foaming the runway for a dramatic shift in its monetary policy, and today we get the final confirmation from notorious establishment ‘mouthpiece’ Nikkei news, stating that the central bank is expected to end its negative interest rates when its policy board meets on Monday and Tuesday.
Nikkei has reportedly learned, that the BoJ will unveil its first rate hike since February 2007 in a turning point for the BOJ’s long-running monetary easing policy.
As we have highlighted recently, the central bank sees a chance to normalize its monetary policy now that inflation appears set to remain at 2% or higher as big corporations and their labor unions agreed on substantial wage hikes this year.
Nikkei details that the BOJ began coordinating both within and outside the bank Friday on ending its negative interest rate policy, which was adopted in February 2016.
The leading plan is to raise the policy rate, currently at negative 0.1%, by more than 0.1 point to guide short-term interest to the 0%-0.1% range.
The Nikkei news comes after the Japanese OIS market is closed but it went out pricing in around a 60% chancxe of a BoJ hike…
Source: Bloomberg
Speaking at Parliament on Tuesday, Ueda said he is closely monitoring the virtuous cycle of wage hikes and inflation, hinting that the bank is in the final stages of ascertaining whether to exit negative rates.
This year’s wage hikes “are of a level that even reflationists who are cautious about modifying monetary policy would accept a change in policy,” according to a BOJ source.
Government officials are increasingly receptive to a March exit from negative rates. A senior Finance Ministry official said that an exit in March would be preferable, as there is no need to wait until April.
Notably, amid this constant stream of front-running and warning, Yen has been falling (contrary to what would be expected from a hawkish shift)…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this yen-selling may be the calm before the face-ripping ‘buy the news’ strength? Or is it a sign of investor angst over the impact on a euphoric stock market of positive interest rates and a central bank that is no longer (even be it marginally) at your back?
Hamas said to move toward Israel on truce deal, but PM claims demands still ‘ridiculous’
Terror group appears to list prisoners it wants freed for first time as source tells broadcaster deal possible; Netanyahu says pressure on Qatar to lean on Hamas ‘starting to work’
People visit a tunnel installation at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on March 14, 2024. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office downplayed hopes for an elusive deal with the Hamas terror group to pause fighting in Gaza and release hostages Thursday night, after an Israeli report indicated the sides were on the cusp of sealing an agreement.
An anonymous source told the Kan public broadcaster Thursday evening that a Hamas response to Israel’s negotiating position had included “reasonable” demands, indicating that “an agreement can be reached.”
But hours later, a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office claimed the terror organization had not shown flexibility, describing its demands as “ridiculous.”
Mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the US have been scrambling to broker a deal between the warring sides for a several-week break in the fighting in Gaza and the release of some 100 hostages and dozens of bodies held captive in the enclave.
Talks appeared to break down late last week as Hamas demanded that Israel end the war and withdraw all troops in Gaza, rather than the six-week pause and partial withdrawal Jerusalem had already agreed to.
Hopes had risen in recent days though, with a senior Arab diplomat telling the Times of Israel earlier this week that talks were advancing after Qatar put heavy pressure on Hamas to soften its demands, warning that its leaders residing in Doha could be deported if they didn’t adapt their approach in the negotiations.
According to the Kan report, Qatari mediators passed Hamas’s official response to Israel’s negotiating team Thursday evening, which a source familiar with the matter said indicated “positive progress in the talks.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on February 29, 2024. (Nimrod Klikman/POOL)
A senior Israeli official was quoted by the Walla news site saying that Hamas’s response for the first time included the number of Palestinian security prisoners it wants to be released in exchange for freeing hostages in a first stage of the deal. According to the Arab Diplomat who spoke to ToI, the initial stage, which would last six weeks, would see the release of some 40 female, elderly and wounded hostages. Soldiers and all other male hostages would be released during a second phase, and a third phase would see the bodies of hostages released.
The official told Walla Hamas’s demands were still too high, but “there is something to work with.”
The group had initially demanded the release of all Palestinian females and minors incarcerated by Israel for terror offenses as well as a roster of high-value terror leaders responsible for bombings and other attacks that have killed dozens of Israelis.
Israel, which has agreed to lopsided deals to free captives in the past, has reportedly shown some willingness to compromise on the number and identity of prisoners it could agree to release, while holding firm to its demand that any truce be temporary, insisting that the war will continue until Hamas is destroyed.
This handout picture provided by the Iranian foreign ministry on February 13, 2024, shows Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian (R) meeting with Hamas’s political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha. (Photo by Iranian Foreign Ministry / AFP)
War erupted on October 7 when Hamas sent thousands of terrorists from Gaza streaming into southern Israel, where they carried out an unprecedented rampage, murdering some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 253 others.
It is believed that around 100 hostages remain in Gaza, along with the bodies of 32 people, after 105 of the hostages were freed during a week-long truce.
International mediators are desperate to broker a pause in the fighting after some 6 months of war that have left the Strip in ruins, with over 1 million Gazans displaced, hunger rampant and vital humanitarian relief slow to reach civilians for a variety of reasons. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says over 31,000 people have been killed, though it does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. The numbers cannot be independently verified.
People check the destruction after an Israeli strike in Deir el-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on March 13, 2024 (AFP)
Hamas confirmed that it presented mediators with the group’s stance on the prisoners-hostages exchange deal, without elaborating.
In a statement, it claimed that it had offered a comprehensive vision of a truce deal that is based on stopping the Israeli “aggression” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, providing relief and aid, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip.
Late Thursday, though, Netanyahu’s office released a statement accusing the terror group of continuing to dig its heels in with “ridiculous demands.”
The PMO said the security cabinet would receive an update on Hamas’s response Friday.
Demonstrators hold placards during a protest calling for the release of Israeli hostages in Tel Aviv on March 14, 2024. (Jack Guez/AFP)
Earlier Thursday, Netanyahu told representatives of families of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza that “pressure on Qatar is starting to work.”
The premier said the Gulf country had changed tact and was now pushing Hamas to agree to a hostage deal, crediting Israel leaning on Doha for the shift.
“Qatar started telling them: ‘We will expel you. We will withhold money from you.’ These are things that were said; we made sure that they were indeed said. This is a change; it is a positive thing,” Netanyahu said during the Tel Aviv meeting, according to his office.
At the same time, Netanyahu lamented that “no real answer has come from Hamas.”
“They still have unacceptable demands,” he said. “They are reluctant to move forward; they also want to set the area on fire in Ramadan.”
A man looks at photographs of Israelis still held hostage in Gaza, at “Hostage Square” in Tel Aviv. March 14, 2024. (Miriam Alster/FLASH90)
A family member told cameras after the meeting that officials they met with had made “a real attempt” to provide answers to the families’ questions.
A statement from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum later Thursday said representatives had pressed Netanyahu to pursue a deal.
“We emphasized to him that the timing is now critical for the release of the hostages, and he must not miss the current opportunity on the table,” it read.
Families of Israelis held kidnapped by Hamas in Gaza speak to the media after a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, March 14, 2024 (Credit: Flash90).
The group also criticized the premier for the amount of time that had passed since the last meeting.
Domestic pressure for a deal has ramped up in recent weeks from both the supporters of hostages’ families and anti-government activists. On Thursday, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in separate rallies for a hostage deal and against Netanyahu’s government in Tel Aviv, with some protesters briefly blocking a main highway.
END
Doubt that the hostage deal will happen;
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel receives Hamas list of hostage deal demands from Qatar – report
Positive developments have been made regarding the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israeli media reported on Thursday evening.
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip on March 14, 2024(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The cabinet will convene Friday at noon and discuss the response of Hamas, which this evening officially submitted its response to the mediating countries, according to Israeli media.
According to the announcement published by Hamas, the deal was intended to allow the return of the residents of Gaza to their homes and the withdrawal of the IDF from the Strip.
Qatar sent Israel an official letter via Hamas detailing the Gaza terror group‘s demands as part of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, KAN News reported on Thursday night.
Hamas said on Thursday it presented to mediators a comprehensive vision of a truce deal that is based on stopping the Israeli “aggression” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, providing relief and aid, the return of displaced Gazans to their houses, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Palestinian fighters from the armed wing of Hamas take part in a military parade to mark the anniversary of the 2014 war with Israel, near the border in the central Gaza Strip, July 19, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
The vision also included the group’s stance on the prisoners-hostages exchange deal, Hamas added in a statement, but did not elaborate.
Israeli media indicates progress
Positive developments have been made regarding the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israeli media reported on Thursday evening, citing senior Israeli sources.
Channel 13 reported that Hamas had shown “slight flexibility” in its position regarding the release of its terrorists jailed in Israeli prison.
KAN News, citing more Israeli sources, reported that Israel maintains “cautious optimism” over a deal being agreed to.
This is a developing story.
END
A good read
(Wyner/DailySceptic.org)
The Statistical Proof That Gaza Casualty Numbers Are Fake
The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the centre of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’s figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since October 7th, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000”. The Pentagon quickly clarified that the Secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry”. President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children”. The White House also explained that the President “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties”.
Here’s the problem with these data: the numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.
If Hamas’s numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: from October 26th until November 10th 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.
The first place to look is the reported ‘total’ number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.
The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.
This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behaviour of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data are not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.
Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than zero, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from zero.
The daily number of children reported to have been killed is totally unrelated to the number of women reported. The R2 is .017 and the relationship is statistically and substantively insignificant.
This lack of correlation is the second circumstantial piece of evidence suggesting the numbers are not real.
But there is more.
The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.
The correlation between the daily men and daily women death count is absurdly strong and negative (p-value < .0001).
Consider some further anomalies in the data: first, the death count reported on October 29th contradicts the numbers reported on the 28th, insofar as they imply that 26 men came back to life. This can happen because of misattribution or just reporting error. There are a few other days where the numbers of men are reported to be near zero. If these were just reporting errors, then on those days where the death count for men appears to be in error, the women’s count should be typical, at least on average. But it turns out that on the three days when the men’s count is near zero, suggesting an error, the women’s count is high. In fact, the three highest daily women casualty count occurs on those three days.
There are three days where the male casualty count is close to zero. These three days correspond to the three highest daily women’s casualty count.
Taken together, what does this all imply?
While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers.
Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily.
We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day.
Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total.
This explains all the data observed.
There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked.
Finally, on February 15th, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported. Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.
Are there better numbers?
Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’s numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’s own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. The researchers argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’s numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the October 7th massacre itself.
The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1.
By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded in and below civilian population centres, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.
The data used in the article can be found here, with thanks to Salo Aizenberg who helped check and correct these numbers.
Abraham Wyner is Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Faculty Co-Director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.
ISRAEL/HAMAS/AID
Gazans killed by Palestinian gunmen lining up for aid
(Jerusalem Post)
Gazans killed, injured by Palestinian gunmen while waiting for aid
As the trucks carrying the aid entered, the gunmen continued firing while they looted the trucks. In addition to the shooting, civilians were also found to be run over by the trucks.
A truck carrying humanitarian aid bound for the Gaza Strip drives at the inspection area at the Kerem Shalom crossing, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in southern Israel, March 14, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Dozens of Palestinians were killed and injured while waiting for humanitarian aid at Gaza’s Kuwaiti roundabout on Thursday.
Although the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry claimed that Israeli forces targeted the group of people waiting for humanitarian aid in a statement on Thursday, the IDF has denied the accusations and proceeded to investigate the incident further.
According to the IDF, the passage of humanitarian aid was allowed into the area, and about an hour before the aid arrived, Palestinian gunmen were spotted shooting in the vicinity.
Palestinian gunmen fire at those waiting for aid
As the trucks carrying the aid entered, the gunmen continued firing while they looted the trucks. In addition to the shooting, civilians were also found to be run over by the trucks.
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on an aid warehouse, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Al-Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip March 14, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AHMED ZAKOT)
“The reports that the IDF attacked dozens of Gazans on Thursday evening at a humanitarian aid distribution point are not true,” IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichai Adraee said.
Further examination was done on the IDF operational systems, showing that IDF tank fire, air fire, and ground forces firing at the Gazan crowd in the area of Gaza’s Kuwaiti roundabout can be ruled out.
The IDF is investigating the incident further, claiming that Hamas terrorists are harming civilians in Gaza and spreading lies that blame Israel for their actions.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS/GAZA/RAFAH
Netanyahu rejects ‘still absurd’ Hamas demands, approves IDF plan for Rafah operation
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes a meeting of the security cabinet in Tel Aviv on March 15, 2024 (Kobi Gideon/GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the latest proposal put forward by Hamas for a release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a truce, saying their demands “are still absurd.”
He also approves an IDF plan of operation to enter the southern Gaza city of Rafah, his office says in a statement after a meeting of the war cabinet.
“The IDF is prepared for the operation and to evacuate the [civilian] population.”
The decision comes despite widespread warnings from the international community, including from the US and Egypt, not to enter Rafah where some 1.5 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering.
The statement also says that Israel will send a delegation to Qatar to continue talks on a truce deal “once the security cabinet discusses the Israeli position
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/THE REJECTED DEAL
Hamas offers exchange of women, children, elderly hostages for up to 1,000 prisoners
Proposal, which Netanyahu rejects as ‘ridiculous,’ would include release of female soldiers in first stage, leading up to permanent deal to end war, see IDF withdraw from Gaza
People walk by photographs of Israelis still held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at “Hostage Square” in Tel Aviv. March 14, 2024. (Miriam Alster/Flash 90)
Hamas has presented a Gaza ceasefire proposal to mediators and the US that includes the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for freedom for Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are serving life sentences, according to a proposal seen by Reuters.
Hamas said the initial release of Israelis would include women, children, the elderly, and ill hostages, in exchange for the release of 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the proposal. The release of Israeli “female recruits” is included.
According to the latest proposal, Hamas said it would agree on a date for a permanent ceasefire after the initial exchange of hostages and prisoners, and that a deadline for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would be agreed upon after the first stage.
The group said all detainees from both sides would be released in the second stage of the plan.
Ahead of a of the war cabinet on Friday to deliberate on the possibility of finalizing a hostage deal following Hamas’s offer, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday night accused the terror group of continuing to dig its heels in with “ridiculous demands.”
His office said an update on the status of the indirect negotiations would be presented to both the war cabinet and the larger security cabinet on Friday.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum appealed to the war cabinet to agree to a deal.
“For the first time, we can envision embracing them again, please grant us this right,” the families of the hostages said in a statement.
They called on the prime minister and war cabinet not to postpone the deal and to save all 134 “daughters and sons who were cruelly taken, solely for being Israelis,” said the families. “For the first time, we can envision embracing them again. Please grant us this right.”
A Palestinian man with his belongings sits on a donkey cart amid the rubble of houses destroyed by Israeli bombardment in Hamad Town, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on March 14, 2024. (AFP)
Egypt and Qatar have been trying to narrow the differences between Israel and Hamas over what a ceasefire should look like as a deepening humanitarian crisis has one-quarter of the population in the battered Gaza Strip facing famine.
Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi stressed his aim to seek such a deal Friday and warned against the danger of an Israeli incursion into the city of Rafah, where an estimated 1.5 million people have sought shelter next to Gaza’s border with his country.
“We are talking about reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, meaning a truce, providing the largest quantity of aid,” he said in a message recorded during a visit to the police academy.
This would include “curbing the impact of this famine on people, and also allowing for the people in the center and the south to move towards the north, with a very strong warning against incursion into Rafah,” he said. “We warned of what is happening, that aid not entering would lead to famine.”
In February, Hamas received a draft proposal from Gaza truce talks in Paris that included a 40-day pause in all military operations and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages at a ratio of 10 to one — a similar ratio to the new ceasefire proposal.
Talks appeared to break down late last week as Hamas demanded that Israel end the war and withdraw all troops in Gaza, rather than the six-week pause and partial withdrawal Jerusalem had already agreed to. Israel agreed to hold talks based on the Paris proposal but has stressed that any break in the fighting would be temporary, committing to its long-held goal of not ending the war until it destroys Hamas.
Hopes had risen in recent days, though, with a senior Arab diplomat telling the Times of Israel earlier this week that talks were advancing after Qatar put heavy pressure on Hamas to soften its demands, warning that its leaders residing in Doha could be deported if they didn’t adapt their approach in the negotiations.
Late on Thursday, Hamas said it presented to mediators a comprehensive vision of a truce based on stopping what it called Israeli aggression against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, providing relief and aid, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes, and withdrawing Israeli forces.
A senior Israeli official told the Walla news site that Hamas’s demands were still too high, but “there is something to work with.”
Representatives of about 20 families were invited for a personal meeting with Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, on Thursday night, after not meeting with the prime minister for more than six weeks. The families told the prime minister that the meetings with him and members of the war cabinet were “vital” and asked that they take place regularly and frequently, after weeks of asking for meetings and noting their far more frequent meetings with US administration officials.
Illustrative: Members of the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad terror groups release Israeli hostages to the Red Cross, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, November 28, 2023. (Flash90)
The families emphasized that it is the prime minister’s “responsibility and commitment to secure the release of all the hostages, both the living and the murdered,” they said in a statement and told him their sense of feeling invisible in the process of a hostage deal.
Domestic pressure for a deal has ramped up in recent weeks from both the supporters of hostages’ families and anti-government activists. On Thursday, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in separate rallies for a hostage deal and against Netanyahu’s government in Tel Aviv, with some protesters briefly blocking a main highway.
War erupted on October 7 when Hamas sent thousands of terrorists from Gaza into southern Israel, where they carried out an unprecedented rampage, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 253 others.
It is believed that around 100 hostages remain in Gaza, along with the bodies of 32 people, after 105 of the hostages were freed during a week-long truce in November.
International mediators are desperate to broker a pause in the fighting after some six months of war that have left the Strip in ruins, with over 1 million Gazans displaced, hunger rampant, and vital humanitarian relief slow to reach civilians for a variety of reasons. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says over 31,000 people have been killed, though it does not differentiate between civilians and fighters, and the numbers cannot be independently verified.
The UN has warned that at least 576,000 people in Gaza are on the brink of famine and global pressure has been growing on Israel to allow more access for aid.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/RAFAH
The Israeli’s shun Biden: they greenlight entering Rafah
(zerohedge)
Netanyahu Greenlights Rafah Offensive, Rejects ‘Still Absurd’ Hamas Ceasefire Plan
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 12:50 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued formal approval for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to go into Rafah while announcing the rejection of the “still absurd” Hamas demands which were presented this week in ceasefire talks.
“The IDF is prepared for the operation and to evacuate the [civilian] population,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement. “He also approves an IDF plan of operation to enter the southern Gaza city of Rafah,” the PM’s office affirmed to the Times of Israel.
Axios’ Barak Ravid has reported that Hamas presented its plan Thursday, which lays out a first phase of a six week ceasefire that includes the release of about 40 Israeli hostages, but Israel would have to free some 400 Palestinian prisoners, among these many who have killed Israelis.
Crucially, the Hamas proposal has also included the “return of displaced Palestinians to their homes and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the enclave.”
Israel has repeatedly said that the demand to withdraw all Israeli forces from the Strip remains a non-starter, given also Netanyahu has vowed to not halt the military operation until Hamas is eradicated.
Netanyahu had initially stated Thursday: “Hamas continues with its preposterous demands. The war cabinet will be updated tomorrow.”
Given the IDF ground offensive on Rafah looks to imminently proceed (though Israeli officials last month had initially offered a start date of March 10, which has come and gone), Israel still has a problem concerning the increasing condemnations coming out of Washington.
On Thursday Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, who was prior to this week seen as someone staunchly in Netanyahu’s corner, in a blistering speech called the Israeli PM a “pariah” and said he has “lost his way”.
As we detailed earlier, the surprise rebuke followed on the heels of an annual “threat assessment” compiled by US intelligence agencies, which was released Monday and questioned Netanyahu’s hold on power. Below is what it said:
“Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy.”
It continues, “Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility.”
According to Axios, Israel has been making some limited strides to try and calm US concerns over the humanitarian situation and the soaring death toll.
“Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant signed on Thursday a letter to the Biden administration assuring Israel will use U.S. weapons according to international law and allow U.S.-supported humanitarian aid into Gaza, two Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios,” the report indicated.
end
ISRAEL/.LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
end
WESTBANK//ISRAEL
Dozens of Palestinian Authority security personnel involved in terror, report finds
“PA forces supposedly fighting terror are the ones carrying out acts of terror themselves, and the PA, instead of decrying it – encourages it,” says Naomi Kahn of Regavim.
By OHAD MERLINMARCH 15, 2024 14:28Updated: MARCH 15, 2024 14:30
PALESTINIAN POLICE keep guard ahead of a visit by Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas to Jenin, in July. The streets of PA cities are policed by the Palestinian security forces, the writer points out.(photo credit: RANEEN SAWAFTA/REUTERS)
A report released by Regavim earlier this week identified dozens of examples of armed personnel from the Palestinian Authority involved in terror.
The report, titled “Officers by Day, Terrorists by Night,” sheds light on the involvement of Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF) in both perpetrated and attempted acts of terrorism, as well as planning, providing help, and inciting them, all in addition to their glorification by the Palestine Authority itself.
According to the report, 46 PASF members were killed while perpetrating terrorist acts targeting or attempting to target the lives of dozens of innocent Israelis, in addition to 25 who were arrested and at least who were seven wounded, indicating systemic wrongdoing within the PA’s ranks.
The Palestinian Authority, the report shows, not only fails to condemn terrorism perpetrated by its security forces but also actively glorifies such acts, financially supporting terrorists and their families. The report also criticizes the Israeli political and security establishments for allegedly concealing the extent of PASF members’ involvement in terrorism, thus implicating a significant intelligence and policy failure.
Palestinian police officers stand guard during a protest over the death of Nizar Banat, a critic of the Palestinian Authority, in Ramallah in the West Bank, June 26, 2021 (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMAD TOROKMAN)
Examples of such involvement in terrorism include Lieutenant Colonel Saud Al-Titi, a PASF officer who took part in a drive-by shooting attack in April 2023; Captain Ziad Al-Zar’ini, officer at the PA’s Customs Police who gave shelter to a Hamas terrorist who murdered Israeli brothers Yigal and Hillel Yaniv in February 2023; Captain Hamdi Abu Dayah, an officer at the PA’s Civil Police, who shot at an Israeli civilian bus in January 2023; Captain Ahmad Ya’aqub Taha, member of the PA’s National Security Apparatus, who attempted to perpetrate a car ramming and stabbing attack against Israeli civilians in April 2023, and many, many more.
According to Regavim, the evidence presented in their report challenges the viability of the PA as a peace partner, calling for an honest re-evaluation of its governance potential and highlighting the urgency of addressing this security threat and the need for Israel to confront the reality of PA-sponsored terrorism directly, moving beyond past failures to a more transparent and realistic policy approach. Acknowledging the PA’s active involvement in terrorism, the report claims is crucial for developing effective strategies to ensure Israel’s security and the region’s stability.
The report also claims that the involvement of PA security forces in terrorism is not a potential future threat but a current and escalating reality, presenting a grave security threat to Israel, reminiscent of the failures that led to the October 7 massacre, also warning from a misguided optimism regarding the potential for PASF personnel to turn against Israeli civilians and soldiers.
‘Listen to their own words and believe that they mean them’
Regavim describes itself as a non-profit public policy research and think tank. Though Regavim’s areas of specialty usually revolve around land use policy as an expression of Israeli sovereignty, this report slightly differs from their approach, focusing on evidence showing that PA personnel actively participates – and is actively encouraged to participate – in terrorism.
Naomi Kahn, International Director at Regavim, explains that Regavim’s approach relies on letting first-hand sources tell the story, stressing that they “don’t say what we want them to believe, but rather actually listen to their own words and believe that they mean them.” In this case, stresses Kahn, there is a combination of statements made by PA security forces themselves and PA officials taking credit for acts of terror or glorifying terrorists, echoing the phenomenon of the PA’s well-known “pay for slay” policies, which encourage and endorse acts of terrorism.
“Personnel on the payroll of the PA, part of the forces supposedly ‘fighting terror’ – are the ones carrying out acts of terror themselves, and the PA, instead of decrying it – encourages it!” adds Kahn angrily, also reminding that the PA names buildings after terrorists glorify them and turn them into heroes and role models for next generations. “It’s completely antithetical to the entire concept of the PA police forces, trained, funded, and armed by the US and Europeans, and it must force us to question our ways,” she adds.
When asked about the meaning of the report within the current context of talks about a revitalized Palestinian Authority taking over control of the Gaza Strip, Kahn answers: “It only makes it clear that it’s a dead letter. There is nothing to talk about if you have another leadership who supports the same goals of Hamas – armed combat against Israel and Jews, eradication of Israel, and replacement of Israel with an Islamic state. I can’t fathom putting them in charge of a Palestinian state; this idea is ludicrous.”
What are the most significant findings of the report in your view?
“The report starts off by pointing out the data; the numbers are absolutely shocking but provide for a tiny portion of actual reality since it only points to proven and published acts of terrorism by people clearly identified as being PA security forces on the payroll. There are many more who have not been apprehended or have not carried out their plans, as well as others who couldn’t be identified in terms of their official position,” says Kahn, adding: “This is but a sample of a much larger reality.
“The next step is glorification within society. How can we exchange a ‘reformed’ PA when they do not desire to carry out their duties? This shocking report should be keeping every sane person who doesn’t want to see more bloodshed awake at night. The US should reevaluate whether their money is well spent,” Kahn adds.
Kahn also says that Regavim is planning to take the report “everywhere we can” – to the UN, the EU, embassies in Israel, and even the US administration and Capitol Hill, urging elected officials in the West to take “a long hard look at where their money is being spent. Hopefully, others will read and internalize this, too.
“People need to begin to take the PA at its word and demand not only transparency but also adherence to international law and to the same objectives for which it was founded,” concludes Kahn.
The US military’s Central Command says it destroyed nine anti-ship missiles and two drones in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
The army says Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen toward the Gulf of Aden and two missiles toward the Red Sea, but there were no injuries or damage reported to US or coalition ships
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization says it has received a report that missiles passed near a ship 50 nautical miles (93 kilometers) southwest of Hudaydah, Yemen.
“The Master reported two missiles flying over the vessel and heard two loud blasts in the distance,” the UKMTO says in an advisory note, referring to the person in command of the ship.
It adds that the vessel reported no damage and that the crew are reported safe.
“The vessel is proceeding to its next port of call. Authorities are investigating,” the advisory says.
END
Another Ship Hit By Missile In Red Sea; Former NATO Commander Warns ‘Maritime Risk’ Highest Ever
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked more than 40 merchant vessels amid the ongoing war in Gaza and severed several undersea communication cables. The Biden administration’s Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led naval coalition to shield commercial ships from drone and missile attacks, continues to fail as another ship was hit by a missile Friday.
“A merchant vessel has reported that they have been struck by a missile and the vessel has sustained some damage. The crew are reported safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call,” UK Maritime Trade Operations, a part of the navy that provides maritime, wrote on X.
The attack on the vessel occurred around 0400 local time on Friday and 76 nautical miles west of the port city of Al Hudaydah. No details about the vessel’s name or type of ship were released.
Hours before, UKMTO reported another ‘incident’ 50 nautical miles southeast of Aden, Yemen.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden reapproved a $10 billion sanctions waiver for Iran despite the ‘rogue regime’ funding proxy wars across Iraq and Syria and the Red Sea against the US and allies.
A recent interview with Adm. James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, and Goldman’s Allison Nathan reveals that the world is on fire.
“In my career, I’ve never seen a higher level of maritime risk than I do today. That owes first and foremost to the return of great power competition, which we thought was basically over when the Soviet Union collapsed.”
Three decades after the Cold War ended, conflicts rage across Ukraine, Gaza, the Red Sea, Myanmar, the Sahel, Sudan, and potentially Taiwan and Iran. The rules-based system of international relations modeled on America’s liberal-democratic values is crumbling as the world stumbles into a nascent multipolar era.
This is not good; however do not worry, Biden the Magnificent is on this;
The Houthis on Thursday claimed to have successfully tested a hypersonic missile for the first time while touting that it could eventually be used against Israel, and would easily be able to reach the Jewish state. Missiles are dubbed hypersonic that can travel at a speed of Mach 5 or higher.
The Yemeni rebel group backed by Iran says the missile it tested can travel at eight times the speed of sound. “Missile forces of the movement have successfully tested a missile that can reach speeds of up to Mach 8 [6,200 miles per hour] and is powered by solid fuel,” a Houthis spokesman told Sputnik. Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news agency also initially reported the claim.
“Yemen plans to begin manufacturing it for use in attacks in the Red and Arabian Seas and the Gulf of Aden, as well as against targets in Israel,” the statement threatened. At those speeds, inbound missiles become much harder for conventional anti-air systems to defend against.
The Associated Press has speculated that the Houthis adding hypersonic missiles to their arsenal is the ‘surprise’ which was previewed by a spokesman last month:
In Yemen, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the Houthi rebels’ secretive supreme leader, boasted about the rebels’ weapons efforts at the end of February, saying: “We have surprises that the enemies do not expect at all.”
A week ago, he similarly warned: “What is coming is greater.”
“The enemy … will see the level of achievements of strategic importance that place our country in its capabilities among the limited and numbered countries in this world,” al-Houthi said, without elaborating.
Already many dozens of vessels have come under attack, including attempted drone and missile attacks against US warships. The Western coalition’s sporadic offensive counterattacks have so far done nothing to blunt Houthi resolve.
As for whether the Houthis actually possess a hypersonic missile or not – it true then there’s a high likelihood they received it from Iran. Just last year, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – widely believed to be on the ground in Yemen currently – unveiled its hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile called the Fattah II. However, later in the afternoon Thursday the Pentagon rejected the claims:
PENTAGON SAYS REPORTS THAT THE HOUTHIS HAVE HYPERSONIC MISSILES ARE INACCURATE
Meanwhile, the US government is seeking to apprehend the “IRGC’s Man In Sanaa”…
Abdul Reza Shahla’i, the IRGC’s Man in Sana’a, is wanted for Justice The U.S. Department of State is offering a reward of up to $15 million for information leading to Shahla’i or to the disruption of the IRGC’s financial mechanisms in Yemen and in the region.
Clearly the Houthi arsenal is expanding, and Washington has long accused Tehran of being behind it, a charge which stretches back years. Their drone arsenal is also growing more sophisticated.
END
(zerohedge)
Biden Should be Threatening Qatar and the Terrorists, Not Israel
US President Joe Biden’s reported threat to halt or suspend US military supplies to Israel if the IDF enters Rafah is what encourages Hamas to continue fighting and reject every proposal to release the hostages. Pictured: Biden delivers the State of the Union address in the US Capitol on March 7, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
US President Joe Biden will consider conditioning military supplies to Israel if the Israeli army moves forward with a large-scale invasion of the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to four US officials.
Biden has also told MSNBC that a Rafah operation would cross a “red line,” although he balanced that statement with a commitment to support Israel’s right to self-defense.
Israeli security sources have revealed that the Iran-backed Hamas terror group has at least four battalions in Rafah. Many of the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas terrorists and other Palestinians on October 7, 2023, are also believed to be held in Rafah.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have succeeded in destroying most of Hamas’s battalions in other areas of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli forces have dismantled 17 of Hamas’s 24 combat battalions in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on February 4.
“The increasing defeat of Hamas in Gaza is an important achievement for the IDF,” said Middle East expert Seth Frantzman.
“Hamas terrorists have lost control of significant areas in Gaza, enabling the dismantling of the terrorist infrastructure the group built up over previous decades. It is essential the IDF be supported in its efforts to prevent further threats by Hamas and other terrorist groups to Israel and the region.”
Biden’s reported threat to halt or suspend US military supplies to Israel if the IDF enters Rafah is what encourages Hamas to continue fighting and reject every proposal to release the hostages. When Hamas leaders hear that Biden is threatening Israel to prevent the IDF from entering Rafah, they must say to themselves: “Why should we make any concessions to Israel? America doesn’t want the Israelis to destroy the four remaining battalions. The US administration is opposed to Israel’s plan to eliminate Hamas, so let’s wait!”
Asking Israel not to invade Rafah and destroy the Hamas terrorists holed up in the city is akin to requesting that someone running in a marathon stop before reaching the finish line. There is no alternative to a total defeat of Hamas, especially in the aftermath of its October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis. A total defeat means the elimination of all of Hamas’s battalions. An Israeli victory will never be complete as long as one, or even half, a Hamas battalion remains intact.
According to Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi, Chairman and Founder of Israel Defense and Security Forum:
“The Americans should understand the consequences of [Biden’s] red line: a guarantee that another October 7 will happen again, that hostages will never come home, that an emboldened Iran will intensify on all fronts and that Hamas-oppressed civilians will suffer indefinitely.
“One of the reasons for this could be President Biden’s willingness to avoid dissent at the Democratic National Convention in August, and he is worried about losing the state of Michigan in the coming election as young people and Arab-Americans defect over his Israel policy. Israel has a right to defend itself, he seems to now be saying, but it should stop the war now. President Biden expressed this dichotomous position in his State of the Union address last week and reiterated this point in the MSNBC interview.”
On November 25, 2023, Biden was quoted as saying that Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas was a legitimate but difficult mission. “I don’t know how long it will take,” Biden told reporters.
“My expectation and hope is that as we move forward, the rest of the Arab world and the region is also putting pressure on all sides to slow this down, to bring this to an end as quickly as we can.”
Four months later, Biden appears to have changed his mind about obliterating Hamas. His warning to Israel not to enter Rafah implies that the Biden administration actually wants Israel to lose the war against Hamas. This would mean that Hamas will continue to rule the Gaza Strip and plan more October 7-style massacres against Israelis. Hamas official Ghazi Hamad has clearly said that the terror group will repeat the October 7 attack, time and again, until Israel is annihilated.
The most dangerous part of Biden’s statements is the threat to suspend or halt US shipments of weapons and ammunition aid to Israel should it proceed with its plans to launch a ground offensive in Rafah, destroy Hamas and release the hostages.
Biden is actually sending a message to Hamas and Iran’s other terror proxies, including Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis, that America is about to throw Israel under the bus. Cutting off US weapons supplies to Israel is the ultimate fantasy of the terrorists.
It is no wonder, then, that in their statements, several Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders have been calling for an immediate halt to US weapons shipments to Israel.
The Palestinian terrorists want the Americans to stop supplying Israel with weapons and ammunition because that would facilitate their mission of killing Jews and destroying Israel. The terrorists are angry because they want Israel to be weak and defenseless. Hamas leaders have just one problem with carrying out more October 7-like massacres against Israelis: the US and other Western countries’ providing armaments to Israel complicates the terrorists’ dream of slaughtering Jews.
“The Al-Aqsa Flood [Hamas’s name for its Oct 7 invasion of Israel] is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth. Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. We are called a nation of martyrs, and we are proud to sacrifice martyrs.”
The Biden administration would see more success if it stopped underestimating such threats from a brutal terror group that has shown itself perfectly capable of the mass murder, rape, beheadings, and burning alive of Israeli civilians. The administration could show impressive leadership and in fact “bring this to an end as quickly as we can” — not just for Israel but for all in the region who are seeking peace — by encouraging Israel to take out the terrorists in Rafah without delay.
The administration would also do well to stop the talk about punishing Israel by cutting off military supplies. Instead of pressuring Israel, Biden should be pressuring his friends in Qatar to force their Hamas puppets to hand over the Israeli hostages and surrender. Instead of threatening to cut off weapons supplies to Israel, he should be threatening the leaders of Qatar with the withdrawal of US forces from the country’s Al Udeid Air Base and to officially designate Qatar as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (for its funding of Hamas, Hizballah, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Taliban, Al Shabab, Al Nusra Front, among others).
This is the way – the only way – to end the war quickly, as well as to send a signal to America’s adversaries looking on, that the US is prepared to uphold the values of civilization, not the values of terror.
Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia Claims It Has Killed 6,000 Foreign Fighters In Ukraine, Including 491 Americans
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Russia’s Defense Ministry issued a report Thursday which said its forces have killed nearly 6,000 foreign mercenaries and volunteers fighting on behalf of Ukraine since the war began over two years ago.
The report claimed that in total 13,387 “foreign mercenaries” from multiple dozens of countries have fought in Ukraine, and offered a remarkably specific breakdown of nationalities. International press outlets underscored that it was impossible to independently verify the claims.
Russian Defense Ministry releases stats on foreign mercenaries in Ukraine The MoD says that since February 24, 2022, 13,387 mercenaries arrived in Ukraine. 5,962 of them have been confirmed killed in action. Poland remains the largest source of mercenary power for Kiev, with 2,960. Over half have died. https://t.me/rtnews/58727
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15.4K Views
Notably Russia claimed an astounding number of American mercenary deaths, putting the number killed from the United States at 491. The number of fighters killed who hailed from Britain was listed at 360, and Canada – 422, another surprisingly high figure according to the claims. But the Russian MoD’s tally of Polish foreign fighters was by far the largest group – at 1,497 out of 2,690 fighters said to have been killed.
Within the first year of the Russian invasion, it was especially then UK Prime Minister Liz Truss who openly encouraged British and Western fighters to go volunteer to fight for Ukraine.
The US too at the time openly allowed recruitment efforts by Ukraine’s international/foreign legion through online advertising including social media and large platforms like Facebook.
However, as the war tragically turned into a ‘meat grinder’ and stalled front lines, Western officials seemed to back off their active encouragement for individuals to travel to Ukraine to fight.
Since then, periodically Russia has claimed to have killed or taken prisoner American or UK citizens. Overall, the whole initiative didn’t go well as stories like the below demonstrate…
The Gregg family is laying direct blame on then Prime Minister Truss:
A young British man who took his own life after fighting in Ukraine went to the country after Liz Truss, the former prime minister, claimed anyone who did so would be joining a “battle for democracy”, his family said.
Harry Gregg was 23 and had no formal military training other than a spell in the Army Cadets when he decided to fly to the country after it was invaded by Russia in 2022.
He ended up fighting in the trenches, where he witnessed the deaths of fellow soldiers and reported seeing the aftermath of Russian atrocities against civilians.
He was found hanged after returning to his home in Thetford, Norfolk, the day after his 25th birthday.
Speaking after his inquest at Norfolk Coroner’s Court last week, his family said his decision to go to Ukraine came after the former prime minister, who was his local MP and foreign secretary at the time, said she “absolutely” supported any Britons who wanted to travel to fight the Russians, arguing they would be joining a battle “for democracy”.
An example of a CBS headline during the early months of the war…
More recently, the Kremlin has claimed large numbers of French mercenaries are active in Ukraine, especially near Russia’s border in Kharkiv. Paris has rejected the claims. At the same time, Russia too has been known to deploy foreign fighter in its ranks, but numbers are unknown.
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
Far More Complex Than Fat: What Is Causing Heart Disease?
For over half a century, Americans have been taught a simple explanation for the nation’s No. 1 killer: that saturated fat clogs our arteries, leading to heart failure.
This diet-heart hypothesis, first put forth in the 1960s by physiologist Ancel Keys, remains firmly lodged in popular consciousness. But unbeknownst to most, modern medical research now understands heart disease to be far more complex than a matter of meat and butter consumption alone.
Inflammatory Link Between Immune System and Heart Disease
Inflammation is a leading theory for explaining the root of heart disease, according to Dr. Barbara Roberts, director of the Women’s Cardiac Center at The Miriam Hospital in Providence, Rhode Island.
In a 2023 report published in BMC Cardiovascular Disorders, researchers made a scientific case for why inflammation may underlie heart disease, especially atherosclerotic heart disease—hardening of the arteries due to plaque buildup—which accounts for most cardiovascular events.
Just as the body mounts an immune response to infection or injury, a similar inflammatory reaction occurs in heart disease. The adaptive immune system has been shown to have an association with heart disease risk due to sustained chronic inflammation, according to the study.
“Although immune cells are integral key players of cardiac healing, an unbalanced or unresolved immune reaction after [myocardial infarction] aggravates tissue damage that triggers maladaptive remodeling and heart failure,” according to a 2021 European Heart Journal review.
In a 2022 Journal of Molecular Science report, researchers noted that atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease in which balancing inflammatory immune system agents determines disease progression or resolution.
LDL Quality–Not Just Quantity–Matters
Low-density lipoproteins (LDL) act as cholesterol transporters in the body, carrying it where needed to synthesize hormones. LDL also plays a supporting immune role, defending against pathogens and oxidative stress, according to research. However, poor lifestyle factors like diet, smoking, and inactivity can overwhelm the immune system, resulting in LDL oxidation.
Emerging evidence indicates oxidized LDL—not total LDL—is key in heart disease.When oxidized, LDL carriers break down into smaller particles unable to attach to liver receptors. These particles then float freely in the blood, damaging arterial walls.
Contrary to logic, smaller oxidized particles present a higher risk than larger LDL. “Even if you have low LDL cholesterol with high LDL particle count, you can have a greater chance of heart disease than someone with cholesterol that is through the roof but has a low LDL particle count,” Jonny Bowden, who holds a doctorate in holistic nutrition and is a board-certified nutritionist and author, told The Epoch Times.
A 2020 study spanning eight years published in the Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis showed that individuals with the highest levels of small-dense LDL particles had over a five times greater risk of developing heart disease than those with the lowest levels.
High LDL particle count doubled the risk of peripheral arterial disease—where narrowed blood vessels reduce blood flow to the limbs—while LDL level had no association, according to a 2018 study of almost 28,000 women 45 years old or older published in Circulation.
“A higher amount of omega-6 in the LDL makes it more susceptible to oxidation,” James DiNicolantonio, a cardiovascular research scientist and doctor of pharmacy at Saint Luke’s Mid America Heart Institute in Kansas City, Missouri, told The Epoch Times. On the other hand, when LDL lacks antioxidants such as Coenzyme Q10 and carotenoids, and there is more inflammation in the body, LDL can also undergo oxidation, he added.
Insulin Resistance Emerges as Key Driver
Insulin facilitates glucose transportation and storage. Insulin resistance occurs when cells don’t respond to insulin and cannot easily store circulating glucose. While known as a Type 2 diabetes precursor, insulin resistance may also contribute to heart disease progression, indicates research.
A 2022 study of 110,000 adults published in Diabetes Care linked insulin resistance and heart disease risk. In prediabetic adults, only those with insulin resistance and obesity had higher cardiovascular risk versus those with normal glucose tolerance. In diabetic adults, cardiovascular risk persisted regardless of obesity.
A 2023 study in the Journal of International Medical Research explained that while the mechanisms connecting insulin resistance and heart disease remain unclear, the link has been established. Altered insulin responses result in cardiometabolic disorders like obesity, low-grade inflammation, and hypertension—all atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease precursors. Lifestyle changes like proper dieting and avoiding sedentary behavior are essential to manage insulin resistance and minimize cardiovascular risk, the authors noted.
A 2019 review in Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews also argued that insulin resistance is potentially the single most important cause of coronary artery disease.
Nutrient Deficiency
The introduction of processed foods such as refined sugar and seed oils is closely linked to worsened heart health. A lack of nutrients is also to blame for increased cardiovascular disease, according to Mr. DiNicolantonio. “A lack of any essential nutrient will speed/lead to the production of atherosclerosis,” he told The Epoch Times.
Key deficiencies closely tied to heart disease include magnesium and copper. Vitamin D deficiency is also associated with cardiovascular disease and hypertension. Antioxidant vitamins A, C, E, B6, and folate also support heart health.
Despite his certainty that nutrient deficiency contributes to heart disease, Mr. DiNicolantonio said no single cause explains heart disease. “There are too many mechanisms to try and guess what is the primary cause of heart disease,” he noted.
It starts with violations of his mantra, “Eat Well, Live Well, Think Well,” according to Dr. Jack Wolfson, a board-certified cardiologist. These violations prompt immune activation, inflammation, oxidative stress, nervous system dysfunction, and cell energy issues. “Ultimately, disease is the final outcome,” he added.
Triglycerides as an Independent Risk Factor
Triglycerides, the most abundant blood fat, have a well-documented role in heart disease. Elevated triglyceride levels from poor diet and inactivity disrupt lipid metabolism, increasing the risk of heart disease. High levels of circulating free fatty acids independently contribute to atherosclerosis.
A 2021 Journal of Lipid and Atherosclerosis study of over 1.8 million Korean adults reconfirmed triglycerides as an independent heart disease risk factor, reaffirming findings from studies beginning in the late 1980s showing triglycerides and associated lifestyle factors significantly contribute to heart disease development.
end
GLOBAL ISSUES
Our changing world
This is a fascinating picture because as trust in media falls so does trust in government. Why? Simply because the hysteric pandering over Covid which weekly is being exposed as a fraud since it was simply a flu. And was made to be something it was not, enriching countless people in addition to big pharma while forcing vaccines and shutdowns that have done much more damage than good. Coupled with countless government lies where media is complicit every day in not reporting or holding politicians responsible and accountable for actions leads to distrust.
As it accelerates going into the future this distrust will be more deeply rooted leading to change. Changes that will alter our existing realities making yesterday the “good old days” that will never return.
Whether we embrace these changes or not it will not matter for we will be carried by the winds of change over the next decade.
Wen waxes on the Florida measles outbreak yet the nutjob will not comment on the rising cases in Chicago due to the illegals with NO vaccines pouring in; no she is woke & can’t upset the left, INSANE
This is classic case of pure tone deaf, this ding dong Wen has no idea how people laugh at her when she speaks and it has to do with being FLAT wrong on all aspects of COVID 4 years now…this moron, this academically sloppy, intellectually lazy incompetent idiot got not one thing right in all she has said re COVID. She had to have attended Harvard, only that can explain her academic technical idiocy.
SLAY NEWS
The latest reports from Slay News
Top Expert: Covid Vaccine Trials Were RiggedA leading expert has spoken out to warn the public about Covid mRNA shots after discovering that the medical trials for the vaccines were rigged to make the injections appear “safe and effective.”READ MORE
Bill Gates Demands Farmers Replaced with ‘Smart Farming’ AIBillionaire Bill Gates is pushing to escalate the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) war on food by demanding that governments begin replacing human farmers with machines powered by so-called “smart farming” artificial intelligence (AI) technology.READ THE FULL REPORT
Hunter Biden Could Face Trial for Federal Gun Charges Before 2024 ElectionHunter Biden may stand trial in Delaware on federal gun charges as early as June, during his father’s reelection campaign. U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika set the preliminary date during a brief teleconference session Wednesday, but she is still considering various defense arguments to dismiss the case against the president’s son, which may delay any future trial, the AP reported. …READ THE FULL REPORT
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
Looks like Toronto is following the USA lead on auto thefts
(Watson)
Toronto Police Gives Advice On Auto-Theft: Just ‘Leave Your Keys Out’
Toronto Police have given advice to residents worried about the city’s spiraling auto theft problem – just let thieves steal your car by leaving them the keys.
Canadian police are encouraging people to leave their car keys in the front to avoid conflict with thieves This is what an unarmed society looks like
Authorities are literally telling people that to stop criminals attacking them inside their home, they should just leave the key fob for the car at the front door.
’s Canada. Where guns are illegal. Except criminals have them, and you don’t. And the police are imploring you to leave your keys at the front door so armed criminals can steal your cars, and hopefully spare your life. It’s been a while since I’ve said it, but FUCK YOU Justin Trudeau!
Toronto Police Service Constable Marco Ricciardi said, “To prevent the possibility of being attacked in your home, leave your [key] fobs at your front door because they’re breaking into your home to steal your car. They don’t want anything else.”
And believe it or not, some people are actually taking the advice.
“Spoken or not, though, some Torontonians have evidently taken the advice to heart,” reports the Drive.
“Like one person who—after having their vehicle broken into three times—opted to leave their car unlocked (along with a big, handwritten note indicating this) so that would-be thieves don’t break the window again.”
Respondents on X expressed their anger at the idiocy.
“This is what an unarmed society looks like,” remarked one.
“Where guns are illegal. Except criminals have them, and you don’t,” commented lawyer Viva Frei.
“And the police are imploring you to leave your keys at the front door so armed criminals can steal your cars, and hopefully spare your life. It’s been a while since I’ve said it, but FUCK YOU Justin Trudeau!”
One car is stolen in Canada every six seconds.
Toronto has experienced such a massive epidemic of car thefts that people are having to go to extraordinary lengths to try to combat it given the police seem completely disinterested.
“One Toronto resident, Dennis Wilson, told the Times that he has to set aside an extra 15 minutes in his commutes to account for his many security measures, which include two car alarms, a tracking device, four Apple AirTags, motion-sensitive floodlights and a key fob kept in a hack-proof Faraday bag,” reports blogTo.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0891 UP .0009
USA/ YEN 148.70 UP 0.387 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2792 UP .0008
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3532 DOWN .0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.40 PTS OR 0.54%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 240.77 POINTS OR 1.42%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .63% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 240.77 PTS OR 1.42%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.40 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .63%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 111.41 PTS OR 0.29%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2165.00
silver:$25.18
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 102.97 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1960
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2061)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.18 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.772…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.307% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.432 UP 0 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.723 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2158.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 25.24
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 15.73 PTS OR 0.20%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 5.39 PTS OR 0.03%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.04%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 107.40 PTS OR 1.02%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 157.85 PTS OR 0.46%
WTI Oil price 80.99 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 85.25 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.91; ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 18/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4345 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.180 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0890 UP .0075 OR 75 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2738 DOWN .0007 or 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1800 UP 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.772%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 1489.02 UP 0.723//YEN DOWN 72 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3537 DOWN .0004 CDN dollar UP 4 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.99
Brent OIL: 85.25
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.307%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 4.434%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.723%
USA dollar index: 103.05 UP 6 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.17 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.91 DOWN 1 AND 18/100 roubles
GOLD 2158.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 25.24 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 190.89 PTS OR 0.49%
NASDAQ DOWN 206.56 PTS OR 1.15%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.65 UP 0.25 PTS OR 1.74%
GLD: $199.71 DOWN 0.64 OR 0.32%
SLV/ $23.03 DOWN 0,30 OR 1.32%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
‘Bad News’ Battered Bonds, Big-Tech, & Banks On The Week; Copper & Crude Rip
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 04:00 PM
An ugly week on the macro side – hotter than expected inflation, slower than expected growth, weaker than expected labor market data…
Source: Bloomberg
…but the inflation issues sent rate-cut expectations reeling (now less than 3 cuts priced in for 2024)…
Source: Bloomberg
And as rate-cut expectations fell, Treasury yields rose… non-stop… all week with the belly of the curve underperforming (5Y yields up 28bps on the week)…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields all ended back up near their year-to-date highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Higher yields were initially shrugged off by stocks but as they kept rising, there was no arguing…
Source: Bloomberg
Small-Caps and Big-Tech were the week’s biggest losers…
Banks were not pretty this week as The Fed’s BTFP facility expired…
…and liquidity was sucked hard out of the RRP. $108BN drawn down in the last two days to fresh cycle lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Anti-Obesity drug stocks dared to end red…
Source: Bloomberg
AI stocks also pumped and dumped on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar surged this week – as BoJ chatter picked up – with its best week since mid-Jan (rebounding some from last week’s dollar-plungefest)….
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar’s gains were gold’s losses as the precious metal ended the week down 1%…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite big net inflows this week…
Source: Bloomberg
…bitcoin ended the week only marginally higher (up around 3%), with choppy moves (day-session dips bought overnight), but ened back above $70,000…
Source: Bloomberg
…and ethereum was a little worse, down around 3%, on the week (thanks to Democrats’ letter overnight pressuring the SEC on ETH ETFs)…
Source: Bloomberg
NatGas erased most of last week’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Still there were some bright spots…
Crude surged on the week, breaking out of its range to its highest since early November…
Source: Bloomberg
And as goes crude, so goes wholesale gasoline… and then goes pump prices…
Source: Bloomberg
..but it was copper that really regained its legs, surging up to its highest since Feb 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, was this week’s ‘stalling’ in NVDA ‘the top’?
Source: Bloomberg
How ironic would it be if we saw peak AI just as Jensen unveils his latest and greatest at GTC on Monday?
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA/
Despite All The ‘Benefits Of Illegal Immigrants’ NY Manufacturing Sector Is A Stagflationary Shitshow
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 08:46 AM
New York state factory activity contracted in March by more than forecast as gauges of orders, shipments and employment all decreased, and worse still for the average (tax-paying Joe) manufacturers were confident in their ability to pass on costs to the end-user.
NYFRB’s general business conditions index plunged 18.5pts in March to -20.9. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the measure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Source: Bloomberg
“Manufacturing activity fell significantly in New York State in March, with a decline in new orders pointing to softening demand. Labor market conditions remained weak as both employment and hours worked decreased.”
~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed
The end client is feeling Manufacturers’ pain as Prices Received surged to one year highs (and expectations are for prices to keep rising)…
Source: Bloomberg
The index of new orders slid to minus 17.2, while the measure of shipments dropped to minus 6.9. The index of current employment retreated to minus 7.1
US Industrial Production Sees More Downward Revisions (You Can’t Make This Up)
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 09:31 AM
Another day, another downward-ly revised dataset…
In today’s episode of ‘shit you believed in the past is not real at all’, US Industrial Production in January was revised from a 0.1% decline to 0.5% decline. That is the 10th monthly revision lower in the last 11 months (and 14th of the last 17)…
Source: Bloomberg
Industrial Production rose 0.1% MoM in February (from that revised lower print), leaving the YoY change in IP at -0.23%…
Source: Bloomberg
Capacity Utilization was flat at 78.25% in February…
Source: Bloomberg
On the pure manufacturing side, production rose 0.8% MoM, but that – again – was from a big downardly revised January (from -0.5% MoM to -1.1% MoM)…
Source: Bloomberg
Just another endless stream of downward revisions…
Source: Bloomberg
How long before the ‘soft’ survey data catches up to the hard reality of the downwardly revised production data…
Source: Bloomberg
All the downward revisions must be weighing on GDP forecasts.
TUCKER CARLSON…
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
“Urgent Action Needed” As Manhattan Rents Inch Towards Record Highs
THURSDAY, MAR 14, 2024 – 10:40 PM
Housing affordability is at a crisis level in crime-ridden New York City. Mayor Eric Adams and progressives have no real immediate solution as rent prices near record highs ahead of spring.
A new Bloomberg report, citing appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate data, shows the median rent in Manhattan on new leases reached $4,320, up 3.3% from the same month last year. This figure is about $170 off the record high reached last summer.
Rents in Brooklyn rose 2.9% to $3,499, and in northwest Queens, the median was up by $1 to $3,239. Manhattan is the hotspot that could see new highs in the coming months.
According to Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, rents typically subside in the winter months, yet this year, prices declined less than expected. A combination of a strong job market and low unemployment, coupled with high mortgage rates and low housing stock are some of the drivers in the rental market.
“The economy has been too strong, for the time being at least,” Miller said.
In February, about 4,350 leases were signed in Manhattan, up 7.7% from the same month last year. Leases in Brooklyn soared 62% to 2,498, while in northwest Queens, it jumped to a record of 591.
The report did not cover if the more than 175,000 illegals that have flooded the metro area are pressuring rent prices higher.
New York State Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar recently warned, “Housing affordability is at a crisis level in New York City. More than half of renters are rent-burdened. New housing construction is not keeping pace with population growth.”
“Urgent action is further needed to build more affordable housing in my district and across New York City,” New York State Assemblymember Yudelka Tapia said.
According to a Goldman report, one major problem deterring new affordable housing in metro areas is that office tower prices are still too high for conversions.
Finding a home in NYC has become a nightmare. The mayor has yet to provide an immediate solution, as rents in Manhattan are expected to reach new record highs this summer.
END
BALTIMORE
South American Gangs Target Mansions In Baltimore As Biden’s Border Crisis Spreads Chaos
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 11:30 AM
The Biden administration’s disastrous open southern border policies have sparked a catastrophic wave of violent crime committed by illegal immigrants. This comes amid the ten million migrants that have invaded the nation, alongside recent calls from radical progressive lawmakers across crime-ridden metro areas to defund the police and limit criminal prosecution. As a result, many law-abiding Americans express growing concern about insecurity amid a new era of explosive crime and chaos.
Let’s begin with a series of news headlines that show Chilean crime gangs have been on a nationwide burglary spree, targeting wealthy neighborhoods from coast to coast:
NBC7 San Diego: “Chilean break-in crew is back, and burglaries are on the rise in La Jolla”
Fox 2 Detroit: “High-end Michigan burglaries tied to Chilean crime ring, prompts police task force”
NBC 10 Philadelphia: “Another Chilean man arrested as Montco targeted by ‘South American Theft Groups'”
ABC 7 Los Angeles: “OC judge throws out plea deal in case involving alleged Chilean burglary ring”
NBC 12 Scottsdale: “‘These are professionals’: Latest arrests in East Valley burglary cases tied to Chilean crime ring”
Oklahoma News 4: “Million-dollar OKC homes burglarized, possibly connected to Chilean crime ring”
ZeroHedge: “South American Gangs Target Dozens Of Mansions In Detroit”
AP News: “3 Chilean nationals accused of burglarizing high-end Michigan homes”
Vanity Fair: “Thieves in the Night: A Vast Burglary Ring From Chile Has Been Targeting Wealthy U.S. Households”
The latest crime spree these Chilean gangs went on was in wealthy neighborhoods in upper Baltimore County, Maryland.
Local media outlet The Baltimore Bannersays a Chilean crime gang burglarized a number of mansions, including one on Tufton Springs Lane in Reisterstown.
On Feb. 3, Baltimore County Police arrested five suspects whom Border Patrol identified as members of a criminal organization known as the South American Theft Group. They all had Chile identification cards.
The group “targets large homes in wealthy areas of often Asian business owners. Detectives know the group to be a traveling, unsettled group who do not reside in the area where they commit their crimes. The group travels around the country committing thefts/burglaries then leave the area before they are identified or apprehended,” police wrote in charging documents.
According to charging documents, one gang member had a phone with an internet search of where to find “millionaire neighborhoods in various cities.”
Investigators also said the gang was responsible for burglaries across North Carolina, Alabama, and Oklahoma.
The unprecedented flood of illegals threatens the safety of communities across this nation. Americans overwhelmingly agree with Trump-era border policies that kept the country safe.
“Once again, honest, law-abiding citizens are being victimized by criminals who should not be in our country. It was great work by the Baltimore County Police Department to apprehend them. Our country is overrun by groups like the South American Theft Group, and it is largely a failure of our border security. We must do all we can to keep people like this out of our country. And I am pleased that ICE has placed detainers on these 5,” Del. Nino Mangione, R-Baltimore County, said in a statement.
At the same time, Democrats are waging war on the Second Amendment by actively trying to ban guns, which will only leave law-abiding people defenseless.
Americans are demanding law and order – something Democrats and the radical progressives in the White House could not care less.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
a slap on the “Fani”
Slap On The Fani: Fulton DA Told To Break Up With Nathan Wade Or Trump Case Stalls Out
FRIDAY, MAR 15, 2024 – 09:16 AM
An Atlanta judge, who donated to Fani Willis when she was running for office, ruled on Friday that the highly conflicted Fulton County DA simply has to break up with her lover, Nathan Wade, who she hired to the tune of $600,000 to work on the Trump election interference case.
If Willis dumps Wade, the case can continue, according to Judge Scott McAfee of Fulton Superior Court, who also had the option of removing Willis over the giant conflict of interest which included lavish vacations with Wade that were effectively at the taxpayer’s expense.
According to McAfee, no “disqualification of a constitutional officer necessary when a less drastic and sufficiently remedial option is available,” adding “that the prosecution of this case cannot proceed until the State selects one of two options.”
Either “the District Attorney may choose to step aside, along with the whole of her office,” or “Wade can withdraw.”
While the decision is a blow to Trump and his 14 co-defendants, this leaves Willis tainted by weeks of embarrassing hearings and national headlines that could influence the views of a jury.
Trump and his co-defendants could also appeal McAfee’s ruling, as could Willis, which would further delay the case into the election – leaving the matter unresolved (and of course, leaving the question of Trump’s guilt an open question that the media would push daily during his 2nd term, should he win in November).
McAfee’s decision comes two days after he quashed six charges in the case, three of which directly applied to Trump.
KING REPORT
The King Report March 15, 2024 Issue 7201
Independent View of the News
US Producer Prices Jump, Adding to Signs of Persisting Inflation Core and broader measures exceed estimates for modest rises Prices paid to US producers rose in February by the most in six months, driven by higher fuel and food costs that add to evidence inflation remains elevated. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.6% from January… The gauge rose 1.6% from a year earlier, the largest annual advance since September… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-14/us-producer-prices-jump-adding-to-signs-of-persisting-inflation
Gasoline, food boost US producer prices in February A 1.2% jump in the prices of goods accounted for nearly two-thirds of the increase in the PPI. Goods prices were driven by energy products, which surged 4.4% after declining 1.1% in January. Goods prices had edged down 0.1% in January. In the 12 months through February, the PPI shot up 1.6% after advancing 1.0% in January… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-food-boost-us-producer-133102936.html
@ces921: 1yr inflation breakeven yields back to levels last seen in 3q when the Fed will still talking about raising rates another time in 2023. The pivot in December removed that cut and we’ve been seeing higher inflation readings and higher inflation expectations ever since. https://t.co/WD8bi4MJVO
Retail Sales Are Soft, But the Fed Has This New Inflation Issue Overall retail sales rose 0.6% in February, while January’s initially reported 0.8% decline was revised to -1.1%. Economists expected a 0.7% rise… Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.3% vs. 0.4% expectations, even as January’s stumble was revised to -0.8% from -0.6%. Factoring out… autos and gas, sales rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% forecasts, while January’s data was revised to -0.8% from -0.5%. Sales at food service and drinking places rose 0.4% in February, but January sales were revised to -1% from +0.7%… (Bidenomics: more downward revisions) https://www.investors.com/news/economy/retail-sales-fed-rate-cut-hopes-sp-500/
Fed officials for the past several years asserted that they are ‘data sensitive.’ Well, the data is telling the Fed that it should hike rates and drain reserves. But it will not do that, because the Fed is very political.
Jobless Claims Data Goes from the Sublime to the Ridiculous!! As a reminder, in the real world labor market, 2024 has been a schiff show of layoffs… But, according to the government-supplied data… The number of American filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to 209k (vs 218k exp) with the NSA number tumbling to 200k… New York accounted for 99.75% of the weekly change in initial claims across the entire US as shown below… Continuing Claims… with a massive 112k person downward revision for last week from 1.906 million to 1.794mm. That is the 5th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims… As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin’s data, here’s what the most recent FOMC Minutes said: “While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.” Even they aren’t buying it, and neither should you! https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/jobless-claims-data-goes-sublime-ridiculous
@RealEJAntoni: So, this seems like a big deal: BLS said jobs grew 640k in Q3 ’23, but PHL Fed now estimates it was only 187k, or less than a third of the BLS estimate; this comes on the heels on the quarterly survey estimate for Q2 ’23 coming in half the size of BLS’s monthly jobs numbers: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768379841680724114
Bonds reacted more negatively than stocks, ex the DJTA. There are far more yahoos that trade stocks than bonds. Gold declined sharply on fear that ‘baked in’ Fed rate cuts are gone with the wind.
ESHs traded modestly higher but sideways during Asian trading. They commenced a rally after the European opening that boosted ESHs by 12 handles in about 80 minutes. ESHs then flatlined until they began a decline after the US PPI report that took ESHs to a daily low of 5203.00 at 10:00 ET.
But bullishness has been indoctrinated into traders, so, the usual suspects bought the early NYSE decline. ESHs rallied to 5226.00 at 10:32 ET. They then did a slow rollover that turned into a stair-step decline that took ESHs to a new daily low of 5196.75 at 13:31 ET.
The afternoon rally took ESHs to 5221.75 at 14:12 ET. ESHs then retreated 10-handles by 14:40 ET. It was time for traders to get long for the ingrained late manipulation and the expected ‘Market on Opening’ buying to replace March equity futures that expire on today’s NYSE opening.
Alas, sellers reappeared; ESHs sank to a new daily low of 5188.00 at 15:35 ET. Blatant and supposedly illegal manipulation forced ESHs to 5220.50 at 15:59 ET.
@ABC: Sen. Chuck Schumer says a two-state solution is the “only realistic and sustainable solution” with Israel and Palestine, adding that “four major obstacles,” including Hamas and Israeli PM Netanyahu, are “in the way” of a two-state solution. https://t.co/8QRM5l183i
@NBCNews: Senate Majority Leader Schumer says Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government “no longer fits the needs of Israel after Oct. 7.” (Who the hell is Chuckles to say this?) http://nbcnews.app.link/KENn3bGFXHb
@AndrewDesiderio: Schumer will call for new elections in Israel & say Netanyahu is an “obstacle to peace.” Speaking on floor now. “The Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel… the Israeli people are being stifled right now by a governing vision that is stuck in the past.” SCHUMER says Netanyahu is pursuing “dangerous & inflammatory policies that test existing U.S. standards for assistance” If Netanyahu stays in power post-war, the U.S. should “play a more active role in shaping Israeli policyby using our leverage to change the present course.” Schumer: “Contrary to the unfounded, absurd, and offensive claims by some that the Jewish people are “colonizers” in their ancestral homeland, Jewish people have lived in the Holy Land continuously for more than three millennia.” (Chuckie with the Obamaite equivocation: anti-Bibi, pro-Israel)
Chuckles Schumer, along with The Big Guy and Obamaites, are interfering in Israel’s politics, elections, and war efforts – demanding regime change – while Israel is in an existential fight!!! Chuckie openly calls for the US to “play a more active role in shaping Israeli policy!” Schumer’s utterances prove that the Democrat Party has been captured by the extreme left.
@RubinReport: Doesn’t matter what you think about Netanyahu, who the f— does Schumer think he is announcing plans to topple an elected foreign government?Hey @SenSchumer are beheadings an obstacle to peace? Are American hostages an obstacle to peace? Sniveling coward.
@joelpollak: Schumer belongs in the street with the other haters demanding Israel’s destruction, because that’s what it means when you attack the democratically elected leader of an ally facing war against genocidal enemies on at least two fronts. So much for fighting antisemitism. Pathetic.
@MicaSoellnerDC: Speaker Johnson calls Schumer’s remarks calling for new elections in Israel “highly inappropriate” and “just plain wrong.” Johnson: “The most important election, in our view, is not what may happen in Israel but the one that is needed right here in the United States that will happen in November. It cannot get here soon enough.”
House #3 GOP @EliseStefanik: Chuck Schumer does not stand with Israel. House Republicans do. @AriFleischer: This is one of the most disgusting speeches ever given in the Senate. 1) Senators don’t get to pick who foreign democracies elect. This is election interference. 2) Schumer doesn’t understand how Israel is united to destroy Hamas. It’s bigger than Bibi.
@MicaSoellnerDC: (GOP House Whip) EMMER: “If Schumer wants to focus on elections overseas, maybe he should have called for an election in Gaza instead. I’ll remind you that there hasn’t been an election in Gaza since Hamas took over in 2006.”
GOP Sen. Joni Ernst: “Chuck Schumer should be ashamed for turning his back on our greatest ally in the Middle East. While he gives lip service to Israel, his statements today show he will follow in lockstep with terrorist sympathizers while American lives are on the line. Words have consequences. Schumer is playing right into the hands of Iran-backed Hamas. He is turning his back on the Jewish community and abandoning Americans. While the Biden administration gives millions more to Iran and its terrorist proxies and Democrats continue caving to the far left of their party, I will always stand with Israel as they defend themselves from brutal terrorist attacks.”
@naftalibennett Fmr Prime Minister Naftali Bennett: Regardless of our political opinion, we strongly oppose external political intervention in Israel’s internal affairs. We are an independent nation, not a banana republic. With the threat of terrorism on its way to the West, it would be best if the international community would assist Israel in its just war, thereby also protecting their countries.
@WallStreetSilv: Schumer is nervous about Muslim voters in Minnesota and Michigan. Trump is polling competitive in both states. The Jewish vote is predominantly in New York and Florida, those states are not up for grabs. The Muslim vote is in swing states. (Undermine an at-war Israel for US votes!)
The reaction to Schumer’s egregious push for regime change in Israel was so virulently condemned that the WH tried to distance itself from Schumer. Undoubtedly, this is a betrayal of Chuckie because he NEVER would have stuck out his neck like this without WH prodding/approval.
@rich_goldberg: What a 24 hours. Biden gives Iran $10 billion.White House offers to meet with CAIR in Chicago.Schumer calls for regime change in Israel.Biden imposes sanctions on more Israelis.All-out political warfare on our ally, rewards for terrorists, their sponsors and allies@BryanDeanWright: A poll last fall showed ~60% of American Muslims believe Hamas was justified in their slaughter of the Israeli people on October 7th. Biden & Democrats need that base of pro-Hamas voters to win.
Before leaving office, Obama claimed Netanyahu ‘subscribes to Putinism’ Obama, Netanyahu and their respective staff quarreled regularly during their overlapping eight years in office, as Obama sought to advance diplomatic agreements between Israel and the Palestinians and between Iran and world powers — both of which were largely opposed by the then-premier… https://www.timesofisrael.com/before-leaving-office-obama-claimed-netanyahu-subscribes-to-putinism/
Ex-Treasury Secretary Mnuchin wants to buy TikTok: ‘I’m going to put together a group’https://t.co/BXQnMHzFr8
@zerohedge: Since 2000, JPMorgan has paid over $39 billion in fines, settlements, and other penalties in at least 275 violations. (Shouldn’t someone be in jail for this?) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1768302473662325142
Positive aspects of previous session Blatant and supposedly illegal manipulation forced ESHs 32 handles higher during the last 25 mintues
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline and oil rallied again while other commodities declined Stocks sank; USHs declined as much as 1 18/32; the dollar rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Does the Fed have the integrity to arrest inflation in an election year?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5160.21 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5176.85; 5123.30
@zerohedge: NY is back. Oh wait… NYC Has Lost 546,000 Residents since 2020
Today – March equity futures expire on the NYSE opening. Often, institutional holders of expiring equity futures contracts replace the expose on the NYSE opening. Traders tend to buy stuff on Thursday afternoon in the expectation of selling into MOO (Market on Opening) buyers on expiration day.
If there are fewer buyers at the opening than expected, traders must liquidate later. This puts pressure on early rallies. The usual suspects will play for the Friday Rally and the possibility that someone of size will manipulate ESHs higher to squeeze SPY March calls that expire at the close.
Expected economic data: Mar Empire Mfg. -7.0; Feb Import Price Index 0.3% m/m & -0.8% y/y, Export Price Index 0.4% m/m & 2.4% y/y; Feb Industrial Production 0.0%, Mfg. Production 0.3%, Capacity Utilization 78.5%; March UM Sentiment 77.2, Current Conditions 79.7, Expectation 75.1, 1-yr Inflation 3.1%, 5-10-year Inflation 2.9%
ESUs are -1.50; NQHs are -18.50; USHs are +3/32 at 20:35 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4955; 100-day MA: 4733; 150-day MA: 4619; 200-day MA: 4571 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,366; 100-day MA: 36,872; 150-day MA: 35,988, 200-day MA: 35,595 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (51650.48) – Trender BBG trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4455.17 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4901.55 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5069.80 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5179.37 triggers a buy signal
Trump pledges to ‘never do anything’ that could damage Social Security or Medicarehttps://t.co/YyorZNbAMk
West Point military academy drops ‘Duty, Honor, Country’ motto from its mission statement – as furious veterans’ slam ‘progressive ideology’ for eroding traditionhttps://t.co/tmjLbf1PDH
Destroy recruitment and you destroy the military, which is all part of the plan to diminish the US.
Toronto Police: Just Let the Thieves Steal Your Car (Clearly, civilization is in collapse) “To prevent the possibility of being attacked in your home, leave your [key] fobs at your front door because they’re breaking into your home to steal your car,” said one constable… https://www.thedrive.com/news/toronto-police-just-let-the-thieves-steal-your-car
The news you are about to read you can find nowhere else than USAWatchdog.com. You have heard me talk about the “real” approval rating of Joe Biden. It’s been stuck at 9% for months. I have two very good sources for this number: One is Martin Armstrong with his “Socratees” program. The other is a confidential source I know personally that I have to protect; otherwise, he could get fired from a very big tech company. The new news is from my confidential source, and he says that Biden’s real approval number is about 8%. It’s gets worse. My confidential source says on a deep data dive on Biden, he cannot win a single demographic. Let that sink in. JOE BIDEN CANNOT WIN A SINGLE DEMOGRAPHIC. This has never happened in presidential polls. When I asked what this means, my deep data mining source summed it up by saying “Biden is unelectable.”
The so-called lawfare (like warfare) cases against Donald Trump are falling apart. The Jack Smith “documents” case is going to get dismissed. The Trump RICO case in Georgia is also going down in flames, and prosecutor Fani Willis is going to get dismissed. The Alvin Bragg/Stormy Daniels case is going to get postponed, and it, too, will likely be dismissed. This is a disaster on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling 9-0 that Trump cannot be kept off any state ballot by desperate Democrats. Are they going to give up or are they going to do something even more desperate and create a global war? We will see.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now saying the inflation she called “transitory” in 2021 is anything but transitory. Looks like the Fed is going to be fighting inflation, and you do not do that by cutting interest rates. So, the Fed is NOT going to cut interest rates as you have been told by the Lying Legacy Media over and over again. Credit card delinquencies are on the rise, and this, no doubt, is also a sign goods are getting more expensive for “We the People.” You can put off your credit card payment, but you cannot put off eating—for long.
Biotech analyst Karen Kingston will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Kingston says experimental vaccines are killing mass numbers of people and need to be stopped. CV19 bioweapon “vaccines” are being stopped in some states. Kingston will give you the latest news on the bioweapon they are trying to pass off as a vaccine.
The U.S. Department of State is offering a reward of up to $15 million for information leading to Shahla’i or to the disruption of the IRGC’s financial mechanisms in Yemen and in the region.
harveyorganblog.com 
