MARCH 19/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $4.10 TO $2156.65//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 11 CENTS TO $24.96/PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $21.50 TO $920.55 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $39.45 TO $995.80//GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM PETER SCHIFF AND DR. DANIEL LACALLE//JAPAN FINALLY ENDS NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES BY RAISING RATES AND YET THE YEN FALLS INSTEAD OF RISING///ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES/COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//BRAZIL’S BOLSONARO ARRESTED FOR FAKING HIS VACCINE CARD AS HE REFUSED TO TAKE THE KILLAR COVID SHOT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $64,793 DOWN 5081 dollars
Platinum price closing DOWN $20.05 AT $920.55
Palladium price; DOWN 47.40 AT $1035.25
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 45 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD………
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 12 730 C PTG DIVISION SG 10 737 C ADVANTAGE 1
TOTAL: 13 13 MONTH TO DATE: 5,263
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 12/13 CONTRACTS
FOR MARCH/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2024. CONTRACT: 13 NOTICES FOR 6500 OZ or 0.0464 TONNES
total notices so far: 5263 contracts for 526,300 Oz (16.370 tonnes)
FOR MARCH:
SILVER NOTICES: 195 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 975,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5317 for 26,585,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
WOW!! HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.32 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.32 TONNES
SLV// WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON>?????
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.782 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.: AND THE REGULATORS ARE LOOKING THE OTHER WAY/// INVENTORY “RISES” AT 427.280 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 427.280 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 892 CONTRACTS TO 151,389 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.11 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN MAJOR SHORT COVERING DESPITE THE PRICE LOSS. WE HAD A FAIR 383 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 383 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.11),BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1042 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF 11 CENTS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED 150 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.270 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY,S 10,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW TOTALS DECREASES TO : 26.990 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 26.990 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 383 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE XX CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MARCH
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 20,501 contracts: OR 102.505 MILLION OZ (1577 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 102.505 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 102.505 MILLION OZ//WILL BE MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH//MAYBE CLOSE TO A RECORD ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 892 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSSIN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 150 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH. OF 23.385 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 0.01 MILLION OZ E.F.P./ JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 26.9900 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1456 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL SIZED 383 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (383) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 195 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 995,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4146 CONTRACTS TO 539,420 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 496 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (4146 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $2,75 GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH. AT 10.270 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’’S QUEUE JUMP OF 600 OZ.
NEW TOTAL Of INITIAL GOLD STANDING RISES TO: 18.656 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $2.75 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6162 OI CONTRACTS (19.166) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4355CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 539,420
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6162 CONTRACTS WITH 4146 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2016 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6162 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): STRONG SIZED 4335 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2016 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4146) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6162 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 7.502 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.01867 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 18.656 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4335CONTRACTS//SOME SHORT COVERING AGAIN
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MARCH
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 63,955 CONTRACTS OR 6,395,500OZ OR 198.93 TONNES IN 13TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5161 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 198..93 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 198.93/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.50% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 198.93 TONNES//THIS IS GOING TO BE ONE HUMDINGER OF AN E,F,P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 892 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,803 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 150 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 892 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1042CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 5.210 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.17 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207.64 PTS OR 1.24% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 263.16 PTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1992 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2108 /Oil UP TO 82.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86,83/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 4146 CONTRACTS TO 539,420 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING. MOST LIKELY IT WAS THE BANKERS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER WITH OUR SHORT PLAYERS EXITING AS FAST AS THEIR FEET COULD CARRY THEM. THE SHORTS HAVE BEEN KILLED LATELY, AS THEY HAVE BEEN LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR BANKER-HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2016 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2016 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2016CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6162 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2016 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4146 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $2.75 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A MUCH LARGER SIZED 4335 CONTRACTS,
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR RECORD T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MARCH (18.656 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.656 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $2.75 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF6162 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRICE.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. THE HIGH T.A.S. ISSUANCE IS MEANT TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD (AS WELL AS INITIATE A RAID).
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 19.166 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MARCH. (10.3576 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 18.656 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.75
WE HAD -REMOVED 496 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6162 CONTRACTS OR 616,200 OZ OR 19.166 TONNES. estimated volume today 203,790 fair
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5263 notices 526,300 oz 16.370 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 39,352.824 oz
total customer withdrawal: 39,352.824 oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into Brinks: 128.604 oz
total deposit 128.604 oz
Adjustments: 1
i) Brinks customer to dealer: 192.906 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 276 contracts having LOST 70 contracts. We had 78 contracts filed upon on Monday, so we gained 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz of gold(0.01867 tonnes) will stand at the comex in this non active delivery month of March.
APRIL LOST 13.914 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 222,136.
MAY EARNED 50 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 835
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 17,357 CONTRACTS UP TO 256,659 CONTRACTS.
We had 13 contracts filed for today representing 6500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 13 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 12 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5263 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (748 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 13 x 100 oz per contract equals 599,800 OZ OR 18.656 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH. contract month: No of notices filed so far (5263) x 100 oz + (748) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (13) x 100 oz which equals 599,800 oz (18.6560 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH: 18.656 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,779,096.47 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,736,801.037 (240.64 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,081,712.559 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,403,443 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 199.17 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MARCH 19
INITIAL
//2024// THE MARCH 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1136,766.769 oz ASAHI Delaware CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,815,967.272 oz CNT
HSBC Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)
195 CONTRACT(S) (995,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
81 contracts (0.405 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5317 Contracts (26.585 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/285.110 million or 45.26%
adjustment: 1/customer to dealer: 25,766.855 oz
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of ASAHI 1129,786.930 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 974.80 oz
iii) Out of CNT: 6005.039 oz
total withdrawal: 1136,766.769 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 48.888MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 285,110million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MARCH /2023 OI: 276 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 10 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEXAS THEY WERE E.F.P.’D TO LONDON
APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 803
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 406 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,162.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 195 for 995,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 50,751 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 52,300 fair.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5317 x 5,000 oz = 26,585,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MARCH. (276) and the number of notices served upon today 195 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MARCH/2024 contract month: 5317 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MARCH. (276) – number of notices served upon today (195 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MARCH contract month equates to 26.990 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 26.990 million oz.
There are 48.239 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MARCH 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 833.32 TONNES
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
MARCH 6 WITH GOLD UP $17.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 5 WITH GOLD UP $16.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.47 TONNES
MARCH 4 WITH GOLD UP $30.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.77 TONNES
MARCH 1 WITH GOLD UP $40.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB29/WITH GOLD UP $12.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES INVENTORY RESTS AT 822.91 TONNES
FEB28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB27/WITH GOLD UP $4.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.94 TONNES
FEB26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB23/WITH GOLD UP $17 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.81 TONNES
FEB22/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.82 TONNES
FEB21/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.59 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 29.82 TONNES
FEB20/WITH GOLD UP $16.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.89 TONNES
FEB16/WITH GOLD UP $8,60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.31 TONNES
FEB15/WITH GOLD UP $11.70 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB13/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.15 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.92 TONNES
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
GLD INVENTORY: 833.32 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
Consumers aren’t the only ones defaulting on their debts: Corporate bond defaults were up massively in 2023, especially for high-risk junk debt, and the trend is continuing this year at a pace not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unsurprisingly, companies selling low-rated junk debt are being hit the worst.
Last year, according to S&P Global Ratings, corporate bond defaults increased by a disconcerting 80%. High interest rates coupled with high inflation have made it a struggle for companies to make good on their commitments even as waves of new bond buyers continue to arrive, eager to lock in higher yields before rates go down. Demand remains strong for junk bonds and hybrid debt, but for companies with poor liquidity, poor to negative cash flow, and/or an outsized existing debt burden, the result is a compelling setup for even more defaults in 2024.
For now, with rate cuts on the horizon, interest remains strong in junk bond debt even as effective yields have fallen from their 2023 highs, and yield spreads remain relatively low:
Junk Bond Effective Yields vs Ch.11 Bankruptcy Filings, Summer 2022 to Now
Meanwhile, debts that were financed in a low-interest rate environment are due to mature in the next few years, to the tune of over $1.8 trillion by 2028 according to the Fed. When those payments come due, more companies will fall to the default wave. And if the junk bond market goes off of a cliff, it could pop the broader $13.7 trillion corporate bond bubble and take the rest of the economy with it.
Even Bank of America is calling the overheated bond market “bubbly.” With no sign of a short-term slowdown in bond sales, the pressure on premiums is expected to keep increasing for high-risk debt as borrowers rush to fill the demand for high-yield offerings before the Fed cuts rates.
However, as quoted in Bloomberg, Band of America strategists said:
“The unusually supportive technicals currently are unlikely to be sustainable in the longer term.”
Last month, Moody’s changed their rating methodology to align with Fitch and S&P’s rules, making hybrid debt more attractive to overstretched companies in sectors like media, tech, and others. The rule change lets companies take on more hybrid debt to raise money without taking as much of a potential hit to their creditworthiness. As far as the next wave of defaults goes, Moody’s itself reported earlier this year that about 16% of speculative-grade companies are at high risk of defaulting on their obligations, including healthcare companies and airlines:
“Names added to the list last quarter include radio platform iHeart Communications and Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N), whose proposed merger with peer JetBlue (JBLU.O), was blocked on Tuesday…At the same time, as defaults have risen, the ratio of Moody’s downgrades to upgrades among speculative-grade companies grew to 1.8x in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 1.3x in the previous quarter.”
The Fed hopes that its interest rate cuts will decrease the burden on indebted companies, but it will come at the cost of adding fuel to inflationary pressures that the higher-interest rate environment has failed to contain. Besides, a decrease in interest rates won’t be enough for many low-rated companies to successfully refinance their obligations or take on additional debt. If investors keep flocking to them in search of higher yield compared to Treasurys, that only makes a frothy market even frothier.
Either way, when the entire economy is addicted to an artificially low interest rate environment, the Fed constantly backs itself into a corner and turns to its only real policy tool: printing money. Feverish bond-buying inspired, in part, by artificially-induced interest rate changes is just one of the endless ways that the Fed’s meddling creates a zombie economy. This banker-run fantasyland acts not upon the laws of nature or the principles of sound economics, but the hubris-fueled whims of central bankers who eagerly play the roles of both pseudo-wizard and pseudo-scientist at the dire expense of the governed.
end
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/ SIMON WHITE..//
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA
Wisconsin is near to ending taxes on gold and silver bullion
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-03-18 19:41 Section: Daily Dispatches
By JP Cortez Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho Friday, March 15, 2024
The Wisconsin Senate has voted in favor of Assembly Bill 29 to end the state sales tax on purchases of gold and silver.
Joining the state Assembly, which overwhelmingly voted to approve this law last week, senators voted 23-9 in favor of this pro-sound money legislation. The bill will now be transmitted to Gov. Tony Evers for his signature.
Assembly Bill 29, primarily sponsored by Rep. Shae Sortwell, also passed out of the state Assembly by a bipartisan vote of 86-12. This popular bill is co-sponsored by almost two dozen other legislators and enjoys wide support — and would align Wisconsin with the policies of 43 other U.S. states.
AB 29 would exempt “precious metals bullion,” defined as coins, bars, rounds, and sheets that contain at least 35% gold, silver, copper, platinum, or palladium.
Imposing taxes on the exchange of Federal Reserve notes for monetary metals (i.e., gold and silver) has become an unusual and outmoded practice in the United States. Only seven states still engage in it. …
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-03-18 18:46 Section: Daily Dispatches
Sugar-Coated Gold Nanoparticles Can Quickly Eliminate Bacterial Infections, No Antibiotics Required
From the National Institutes of Health Bethesda, Maryland via Phys.org, Douglas, Isle of Man, United Kingdom Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, Stanford University, and the New Jersey Institute of Technology have developed sugar-coated gold nanoparticles that they used both to image and destroy biofilms, the slimy scaffolding that bacteria can develop on our teeth or wounded skin if left unattended.
In a study published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, the authors demonstrated the diagnostic and therapeutic potential of the nanoparticles on the teeth and wounded skin of rats and mice, eliminating the biofilms in as little as one minute and outperforming common antimicrobials.
“With this platform, you can bust biofilms without surgically debriding infections, which can be necessary when using antibiotics,” Luisa Russell, a program director in the Division of Discovery Science & Technology at the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, said in a media statement. “Plus, this method could treat patients if they are allergic to antibiotics or are infected by strains that are resistant to medication. The fact that this method is antibiotic-free is a huge strength.” …
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-03-18 16:20 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Brien Lundin Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities, Metairie, Louisiana Monday, March 18, 2024
The big story in gold is silver.
Every secular bull market in gold has seen silver outperform its glittering cousin. That means two things:
1) Silver’s outperformance is a confirmation that a gold bull market has truly begun, and. …
2) It’s a great way to play gold during such a bull market.
So if you believe that the macroeconomic environment is bullish for gold, then you need to own silver as well to boost the performance of your precious metals portfolio.
As I’ve always put it, if you like gold, you should love silver.
Of course, this begs the question of what silver is telling us now…
If you’ve been perusing gold-oriented commentators on social media and in newsletters, you’ve noticed a general consensus view that silver hasn’t been doing its job during the remarkable gold rally this month.
But if you look at the data, nothing could be further from the truth. …
The manufacturing and consumer confidence weaknesses of the United States are deeply concerning, particularly considering that all those allegedly infallible Keynesian policies are being applied intensely.
Considering the insanity of deficit spending driven by entitlement programs, the decline in the headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in March—from 76.9 to 76.5—is even worse than expected. Let us remember that this index was at 101 in 2019 and has not recovered the brief bounce shown by the reopening effect in March 2021. Consumer confidence is still incredibly low, and a decline in the expectations index fully explains the most recent decline. Persistent inflation, high gas prices, and declining real wages may explain the poor expectations of the average citizen. Furthermore, this poor consumer confidence reading comes after poor control group retail sales last month.
No, this is not a strong economy. The consumer confidence index, labor participation, and unemployment-to-population ratios, as well as real wage growth, remain significantly below the pre-pandemic level, and this after $6.3 trillion in new public debt that will likely reach $8 trillion by the end of 2024.
The manufacturing weakness of the United States is also a problem because this should be a period of high growth, considering the opportunities generated all over the world. Industrial output bounced 0.8 percent in February, but the January figure was revised to a larger 1.1 percent slump. If we factor in the decline in the Empire State survey, to -20.9 in March, it looks like the manufacturing decline will persist.
The shape of the U.S. economy also reflects the impossibility of the soft-landing narrative. Inflation remains well above target, and bond yields are reflecting the reality of persistent inflation. Furthermore, money supply growth stopped declining months ago.
If the money supply rises and government spending continues to rise, the Federal Reserve will be unable to cut interest rates, and the impoverishment of citizens by a loss of purchasing power will continue.
This is the result of an insane fiscal policy that increases spending and taxes. Weak growth, manufacturing decline, and worsening consumer confidence.
Demand-side policies and Keynesian experiments are leaving a once-strong economy on the same path as the eurozone: stagflation. A warning sign should be the fact that the increase in public debt completely justifies the gross domestic product recovery.
This is the problem of extraordinary monetary and fiscal experiments. Governments embrace massive spending and debt monetization under the premise that they will implement control policies if the warning signs appear, but when they do, they never stop spending. Economists close to the government said that the administration would reconsider and adjust its budget if inflation rose, and alarm bells rang. Now we have heard all the alarm bells, and the administration continues as if nothing happened. The Inflation Reduction Act became the Inflation Perpetuation Act; the rise in government borrowing is now evident in the 10- and 30-year curve; and the private sector is in an obvious contraction.
Trusting governments to moderate spending after an expenditure binge is simply an extremely dangerous bet that always ends with worse conditions for citizens. Once they start, they cannot stop, and the inevitable end is higher taxes, weaker growth, lower real wages, and a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. All the figures in the U.S. economy scream “buy gold” because the government will always prefer to destroy the currency than to moderate the budget deficit and government size in the economy.
end
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES
.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1992
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2108
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.17 PPTS OR 0.72%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 207.64 PTS OR 1.24%
2. Nikkei closed UP 263.16 PTS OR 0.66%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.56 EURO FALLS TO 1.0848 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.720 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.42/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4535***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.694* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.247…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.301
3j Gold at $2155.75 silver at: 24.93 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 60 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.51//
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.42// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.720% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8876 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9623 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.332 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.453 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.717 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.34…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 3 BASIS PTS AT 4.098
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
US Futures Slide As Nvidia Keynote Disappoints And FOMC Decision Looms
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 08:28 AM
One day after we asked if Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the NVDA GTC presentation would be a “sell the news”event, the answer is yes, because this morning US stock futures have slumped, after the AI chip giant’s CEO disappointed markets by not revealing anything that the market wasn’t already expecting. As a result, as of 7:50am, S&P futures were trading at session lows, down 0.5%, with Nasdaq futures sliding 0.6% and bitcoin dumping after an overnight fat-finger sent the crypto briefly to $8,900. And now that the BOJ has finally exited negative rates after a decade of with all eyes on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for clues on the rates outlook. Bizarrelly, the BOJ’s historic rate hike has sent the yen sliding and thus, the dollar higher with 10Y yields unchanged around 4.32%. Commodities are flat with metals outperforming and Brent crude trading near a five month high of $87. Today’s macro data focus will be on housing data with an update on TIC flows.
In premarket trading, NVDA stock was down and Mag7 names were mixed with semis lower, despite a price target increase by Goldman which now expects NVDA to trade at $1000 in 12 months, up from $875 (full note available to pro subs).
Elsewhere, cryptocurrency-linked stocks dropped as Bitcoin extended a retreat following a record daily outflow from the doomed GBTC ETN which may have precipitated yesterday’s crypto rout, offset however by another BTFD burst in the Blackrock IBIT ETF. Among the bigger movers, Coinbase Global -5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) -5%, Marathon Digital (MARA) -7%,
Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Beyond Meat falls 5% after the plant-based protein company filed a $250 million mixed securities shelf registration.
Caleres slips about 2% after the retailer reported a decline in Famous Footwear comparable sales and issued weaker-than-expected first-quarter guidance.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals rises 14% after saying its once-daily oral paltusotine achieved the primary and all secondary endpoints in the Phase 3 PATHFNDR-2 study in acromegaly patients.
Fusion Pharma (FUSN) soars 100% after AstraZeneca agreed to buy the biotech company for as much as $2.4 billion.
National CineMedia (NCMI) jumps 24% after the company announced a $100 million share buyback and reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
Nvidia (NVDA) slips 1% as analysts noted that its much-anticipated AI event had no major surprise announcements.
StoneCo (STNE) drops 9% after the digital payments firm announced its co-founder André Street would leave his position as chairman. The company also reported fourth-quarter payment volume that came below consensus expectations.
Finally, one month after we asked when Supermicro would sell stock to take advantage of its ridiculous stock price…
… we got the answer this morning when Super Micro Computer announced an offering to sell 2 million shares of common stock, sending the stock tumbling 8%.
Turning to the main overnight event, the yen paradoxically tumbled after the Bank of Japan brought an end to the world’s last negative interest-rate policy and emphasized that financial conditions will remain easy. The BOJ’s first hike in 17 years had been widely expected and Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a neutral tone at a news conference, saying there’s still a chance its inflation goal will not be hit. While the central bank scrapped its yield curve control program, it also pledged to keep buying long-term government debt.
“It’s a very, very dovish hike, as dovish hike as they come,” said Frederic Neumann, HSBC’s chief Asia economist, said on Bloomberg Television. Japanese bonds gained and the Topix closed at the highest since 1990 because the yen dropped 0.9% versus the dollar to 150.43, usually the opposite of what happens after a rate hike, and effectively dooms the BOJ to panic hiking as the plunging yen means Japan’s inflation troubles will only get worse.
In a busy week for central bank decisions, attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, where investors will be focused on the US central bank’s projections — the dot plot — to gauge how many rate cuts policymakers are expecting to deliver this year.
“We are now thinking perhaps we get slightly higher dots — could we see fewer cuts being priced in?” said Andrea DiCenso, co-portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We are seeing less than potentially three cuts priced into the market.”
European stocks are little changed following three straight days of declines. Energy and auto shares are outperforming and countering losses in utilities and consumer products. Investor confidence in Germany’s economic outlook jumped to the highest in more than two years, driven by expectations that the European Central Bank is ready to cut interest rates in the coming months. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak Wednesday. Here are the most notable European movers:
Unilever gains as much as 6% in London on news it plans to separate its ice cream business, including brands such as Ben & Jerry’s, as the UK consumer-goods conglomerate streamlines its business.
Hannover Rueck rises as much as 4.2% as RBC boosts its price target on the German insurer to a Street-high on scope for continued “best-in-class” return of equity.
Hemnet gains as much as 6.8% after Jefferies double-upgraded the property platform in a note that analysed the impact of Costar’s entry into the European market.
Close Brothers jumps as much as 17%, the most since 2009, after the British merchant banking group presented 1H results which beat estimates. Shares are still down about 52% year to date.
HelloFresh falls as much as 5.4% as Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight, citing a lack of stabilization in new customer additions in the company’s meal-kit business.
Richemont and Swatch fell as data showed Swiss watch exports fell in February due to underlying deceleration in the US, China and Hong Kong.
Atos shares drop as much as 25%, hitting a record low, after the debt-laden French IT firm said talks to sell its BDS unit to Airbus have ended.
Moncler falls as much as 3.4% after an offering of up to 3.23 million shares by Carlo Rivetti’s Grinta priced at €67 apiece, representing a 3.2% discount to the last close.
Fraport falls as much as 6.9% after the airport operator’s guidance for 2024 Ebitda and free cash flow left analysts wanting more, with Morgan Stanley saying guidance is “light.”
Lottomatica falls as much as 6% after Gamma Intermediate completed a placing of 20 million shares in the gambling operator at €10.90 apiece, representing a 7.5% discount to the last close.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed as markets digested the first of this week’s central bank announcements.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by weakness in tech stocks as the EU mulls joining the US in reviewing risks of Chinese legacy chips and is flagging potential risks to national security and supply chains.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned after a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying which a Nikkei source report had flagged, while the central bank also announced its monthly bond purchase intentions and said it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB buying or conduct fixed-rate operations in the event of a rapid rise in yields.
ASX 200 finished with mild gains after a lack of hawkish surprises at the RBA policy announcement in which it kept rates unchanged and reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination, while there was also a slight tweak in its language as guidance around further tightening was softened.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% with Wednesday’s Fed decision now firmly in focus as the yen tumbles despite the BOJ’s first rate hike in nearly two decades. USD/JPY rises as high as 150.60 after BOJ’s decision. AUD/USD falls under mid 0.65-0.66 as traders price in greater probability of a RBA rate cut this year following its policy decision. NZD/USD falls to hold under 0.61. The New Zealand dollar is sold by leveraged funds after comments from the NZ Treasury saying the economy is in a “severe economic slowdown,” according to Asia-based FX traders, who say the Aussie is also weighed by the news. EUR/USD remains under 1.09 while GBP/USD drifts down toward 1.27. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls for the fourth day
In rates, treasuries climb, with US 10-year yields falling 1bps to 4.31%. US rates had little reaction to Bank of Japan’s first interest-rate hike since 2007, which was anticipated, remaining near year-to-date highs ahead of 20-year bond auction at 1pm New York time. Front-end yields are lower by ~2bp, steepening curve spreads by around 1bp vs Monday’s closing levels; 10-year at around 4.31% is ~1bp richer on the day with gilts outperforming by 4bp in the sector. Bunds and gilts are also in the green with UK yields down 3bp-4bp. Treasury auctions resume with $13b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm; WI yield at around 4.562% is above auction stops since November and ~3bp cheaper than February’s result.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.3% to trade near $82.50. Spot gold falls 0.3%.
Bitcoin drops ~6% to near $63,000.
Looking at today’s economic data calendar we get February housing starts/building permits (8:30am) and January TIC flows (4pm). There are no Fed speakers scheduled before March 20 policy decision
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 5,189
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 503.87
MXAP down 0.5% to 175.29
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 529.89
Nikkei up 0.7% to 40,003.60
Topix up 1.1% to 2,750.97
Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 16,529.48
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,062.76
Sensex down 1.0% to 72,004.06
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,703.23
Kospi down 1.1% to 2,656.17
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0846
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $86.68/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,150.05
US Dollar Index up 0.35% to 103.94
Top Overnight News
Japan’s BOJ hiked rates (as was widely expected) from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, although the accompanying language had a dovish tone, with the central bank ensuring that accommodative policy would be maintained for the time being. The YCC (yield curve control) policy was formally ended, although the BOJ said it would still purchase about the same amount of government bonds each month. The BOJ will discontinue buying equity ETFs and REITs. FT
Chinese factories are flooding global markets with cars, appliances, computer chips and electronics, setting the stage for a fresh round of trade tensions with the United States and Europe, economists said. WaPo
The ECB will be in position to discuss an interest rate cut in June, Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday, joining a long list of policymakers putting the June 6 meeting on the table for a potential start of policy easing. RTRS
European luxury stocks see some pressure following soft Swiss watch export numbers (Swiss watch exports fell 3.8% Y/Y in Feb vs. +3.2% in Jan). BBG
Indian oil refiners are on track to take the most American crude in almost a year after tighter enforcement of US sanctions crimped trade with Russia and forced processors to look elsewhere for supply. BBG
The EU is preparing to levy tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to placate farmers and some member states, the first restriction on food products since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. FT
Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that the global drive to phase out oil and gas is a dangerous fantasy that’s bound to fail as there aren’t any credible alternatives to fossil fuels. CNBC
MSFT schedules an AI event for Mon May 20 (right before the Build conf. May 21-23) at which it will discuss the firm’s AI vision across hardware and software. The Verge
NVDA unveiled its (much-anticipated) new Blackwell platform, the successor product to Hopper. Blackwell contains 6 new technologies and will enable AI training and real-time LLM inference for models scaling up to 10 trillion parameters. Among the many organizations expected to adopt Blackwell are Amazon Web Services, Dell Technologies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tesla xAI. RTRS
BOJ
BoJ changed its monetary policy framework in which it ended negative interest rate policy and abandoned YCC, while it will guide the overnight call rate in the range of 0%-0.1% and apply 0.1% interest to all excess reserves parked at the central bank. BoJ also announced to end ETF and J-REIT purchases, as well as gradually reduce the amount of purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds whereby it will discontinue purchases of CP and corporate bonds in about one year. However, it stated that it will continue roughly the current amount of JGB buying and it expects to maintain an accommodative monetary environment for the time being. Furthermore, the BoJ announced its planned bond purchases and stated that in case of a rapid rise in long-term rates, it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB purchases or conduct fixed-rate purchase operations of JGBs, while it will provide loans under Fund Provisioning Measure to stimulate bank lending with an interest rate of 0.1% and a 1-year duration.
BoJ PRESS CONFERENCE: Governor Ueda says BoJ has confirmed the virtuous cycle of wages and prices; Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being. Click here for full commentary.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says the government’s view of the economy is the same as that of the BoJ; closely monitoring the economy and financial markets, including FX after the BoJ decision.
Japan’s Business Lobby Keidanren Chief says the appropriate decision was taken at the appropriate time, when asked on the BoJ announcement; does not think USD/JPY at 150 reflects Japan’s economic fundamentals; Yen should be firmer considering fundamentals.
Japan PM Kishida believes it is appropriate that accommodative monetary environment is maintained; did not discuss current issues with BoJ’s Ueda
A more detailed analysis of markets from Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed as markets digested the first of this week’s central bank announcements. ASX 200 finished with mild gains after a lack of hawkish surprises at the RBA policy announcement in which it kept rates unchanged and reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination, while there was also a slight tweak in its language as guidance around further tightening was softened. Nikkei 225 was underpinned after a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying which a Nikkei source report had flagged, while the central bank also announced its monthly bond purchase intentions and said it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB buying or conduct fixed-rate operations in the event of a rapid rise in yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by weakness in tech stocks as the EU mulls joining the US in reviewing risks of Chinese legacy chips and is flagging potential risks to national security and supply chains.
Top Asian News
RBA kept its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and inflation continues to moderate but remains high. RBA stated the board is not ruling anything in or out on interest rates (prev. a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out) and data is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs. Furthermore, it noted that higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy and the board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
RBA Governor Bullock said they are making progress in the fight against inflation but reiterated inflation remains high and noted recent data suggests they are on the right track and they are keeping a keen eye on employment numbers. Bullock stated that risks to the outlook are finely balanced and war isn’t won yet on inflation, while she noted the change of statement language is in response to data.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a visit to New Zealand that China is ready to work with New Zealand to implement an upgraded version of the China-New Zealand FTA and the two sides should launch negotiations on a negative list of service trade as soon as possible to push bilateral cooperation to a new level. Furthermore, he stated that China-New Zealand relations maintain a leading position among China’s relations with developed countries, while it was also reported that New Zealand PM Luxon intends to visit China in the coming months following this week’s meetings with China’s Foreign Minister.
China State Council issues action plan to make greater efforts to attract and utilise foreign investments; plan is to expand market access and raise the level of liberalisation of foreign investment
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.12 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 0.97bln (exp. 0.93bln).
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.1%) began the session on a mixed footing though have caught a slight bid in recent trade, and reside near session highs; the AEX (+0.4%) outperforms, lifted by gains in Unilever (+4.5%). European sectors are mixed; Energy takes the top spot, with Crude just off recent highs whilst Consumer Products and Services is hampered by broader weakness in Luxury names, after weak Chinese price action overnight. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.3%) are modestly lower, with mild underperformance in the RTY as it continues the prior day’s weakness.
Top European News
ECB’s Centeno said cutting rates may help prevent a recession.
ECB’s de Guindos says “looking at recent inflation developments, we can see a very clear disinflationary process. This is reflected in both headline and core inflation readings; will have more information in June”.
ECB’s De Cos says in June we could start cutting rates but it is conditional on data
SNB: Identifies a need for action with capital regulations. Regarding AT1 instruments, the aim should be to strengthen their contribution through a timely suspension of buybacks/interest payments alongside a conversion into CET1 capital earlier
FX
DXY is boosted by the post-BoJ softness in the JPY. DXY has reached a high of 104.06, bringing into play the March peak of 104.29 into view.
EUR is swept up by the broadly firmer USD as the pair pulls back from a 1.0906 peak yesterday. If the descent continues, support comes via the 200DMA at 1.0838. EUR downside came to a halt on firm German ZEW metrics.
GBP is softer vs. the USD. Cable is resting on its 50DMA at 1.2683 with UK-specifics lacking ahead of CPI metrics tomorrow and the BoE on Thursday.
JPY is the laggard across the majors despite the BoJ ending NIRP. The move was widely expected and despite Ueda opening the door to further hikes, markets expect any hiking campaign by the Bank to be a shallow one. USD/JPY up to 150.69 at best.
Antipodeans are both faring poorly vs. the USD. AUD eyeing a test of 0.65 to the downside where a large option expiry lies and bids are expected; the RBA kept its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0985 vs exp. 7.2056 (prev. 7.0943).
Fixed Income
Bunds are firmer after being incrementally softer on Monday. Newsflow has been dominated by the BoJ but read-across to EGBs is ultimately limited; EGBs saw modest upside following the better-than-expected German ZEW figures, with Bunds printing highs at 131.89.
USTs are following EGBs and holds around the 110-00 mark. 20yr supply takes attention ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with EGBs; Gilts caught a bid following the UK auction and in tandem with a lift in EGBs post-ZEW, currently at 98.90.
The BoJ’s exit from NIRP & YCC saw an initial dip in JGBs and sent the accompanying 10yr yield back to its earlier session high of 0.77%. Thereafter, JGB price action was volatile before settling around 145.60. A pullback which occurred as some of the dovish elements were digested.
EU opens books to sell EUR-denominated Feb 2050 green NGEU bonds; guidance +82bps to mid-swap; to sell EUR 6bln.
Order for the new Italian 10yr I/L BTP are in excess of EUR 35bln, according to leads; spread a +23bps over the maturing May 2023 BTP.
UK sells GBP 2bln 4.75% 2043 Gilt: b/c 3.41x (prev. 3.62x), average yield 4.467% (prev. 4.391%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps)
Commodities
Subdued trade across the crude complex this morning, with prices taking a breather after yesterday’s rise; Brent meanders around USD 86.75/bbl after printing a high above USD 87/bbl yesterday.
Mild downward bias across precious metals amid a firmer Dollar with little reaction to the BoJ overnight as traders gear up for the FOMC and then the BoE; XAU hovers just above USD 2,150/oz.
Base metals are softer across the board amid the stronger Dollar and following weak Chinese trade overnight.
UBS sees Brent likely trading between USD 80-90/bbl range this year, with end-June forecast of USD 86/bbl; extension of voluntary OPEC+ cuts for another three months will likely keep oil market underpinned in Q2 2024.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he spoke with Biden about achieving goals in the Gaza war while providing needed humanitarian aid, while it was also reported that President Biden reiterated ‘deep concerns’ about Israel conducting ground operations in Rafah during the call with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
Israeli officials said PM Netanyahu narrowed the mandate of the negotiating delegation and set red lines for what they can accept, according to Axios.
US military said it destroyed seven anti-ship missiles and three unmanned aerial vehicles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, while Houthi media reported six US-British raids near Hodeidah, Yemen, according to Al Arabiya.
Syrian army ground defences confronted targets in the sky of Damascus and state media reported that Israeli airstrikes were targeting the countryside of Syria’s Damascus.
“Israeli official to the broadcaster: The talks in Doha were positive and we expect difficult, complex and long negotiations”, according to Sky News Arabia.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Feb. Building Permits MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -1.5%, revised -0.3%
08:30: Feb. Housing Starts MoM, est. 8.2%, prior -14.8%
08:30: Feb. Building Permits, est. 1.5m, prior 1.47m, revised 1.49m
08:30: Feb. Housing Starts, est. 1.44m, prior 1.33m
16:00: Jan. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $139.8b
16:00: Jan. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $160.2b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’ve been back from Asia for three days now but I continue to fall asleep in front of the telly every night, get prodded by my wife on the sofa, and then wake up bright awake 90 minutes before my alarm in the morning. Today was one of those days that it was useful as I got to see the first BoJ hike in 17 years live this morning. So far their policy moves are pretty much as leaked over the last few days so there are no real surprises. They lifted rates from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%. They also scrapped YCC and ended ETF and REIT purchases but these programs had been pretty dormant of late. They are continuing JGB purchases at the same rate for now but, according to our Japanese economist Kentaro Koyama, the fund supplied through the Loan Support Program (similar to the TLTRO, with a current balance of JPY81 trillion yen) will decrease going forward given the conditions for the program have become stricter. As a result, the monetary base and the BoJ’s balance sheet will decline going forward.
Forward guidance is a bit dovish, according to Kentaro. In the statement, the bank says that it anticipates that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being given the current outlook for economic activity and prices. In our view, this does not exclude policy rate hikes in the near future and could change depending on the economic and inflation outlook. So all paths are open. We will see what the press conference brings.
Against this well flagged move, the Japanese yen (-0.78%) is weakening, trading above 150 again for the first time in two weeks while 10yr JGB yields (-2.6bps) have moved lower to 0.74%. So for now, it’s buy the rumour and sell the fact. The house view is that the market is underestimating where terminal rates might end up in Japan but that it will be a steady process discovering that.
Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the benchmark rate at 4.35%, a 12-year high for the third meeting in a row, aligning with broad market expectations. In its post-meeting statement, the RBA indicated that it can’t rule out the possibility that interest rates will need to be raised further while acknowledging that inflation is moderating, consistent with its latest forecasts but remains too high and that the “economic outlook remains uncertain”. In response, the Aussie dollar (-0.50%) is losing ground, trading at a two-week low of 0.6527 versus the dollar with the policy-sensitive 3yr government bond yield dropping -5.3bps to 3.69% as I check my screens.
In terms of wider Asia moves, the Nikkei (+0.36%) is reversing initial losses as the Yen falls, with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.36%) also edging higher while the KOSPI (-1.15%), the Hang Seng (-1.06%), the CSI (-0.31%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.17%) are lower. S&P 500 (-0.13%) and Nasdaq (-0.27%) futures are lower with 10yr UST yields ticking down -1bps to 4.31%.
Ahead of the BoJ decision, US markets put in a strong performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.63%) bouncing back from two small weekly declines. That was driven by the Magnificent 7 (+2.00%), particularly after the news came through that Apple (+0.64%) was in talks to use Google’s Gemini for new iPhone features, meaning that Alphabet (+4.60%) saw its best daily performance in over three months. But even outside of big tech, risk appetite remained mostly firm among investors, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.28%) also rose, whilst US HY spreads closed at their tightest level in over two years. The small cap Russell 2000 was a notable underperformer, down -0.72%.
The main point of caution came on the inflation side, with investors becoming increasingly concerned about how persistent it’s been proving. For instance, 1yr US inflation swaps (+1.5bps) closed at their highest level since October, at 2.64%. And there were fresh signs of price pressures elsewhere, as Brent crude oil prices (+1.82%) rose to $86.89/bbl, which is their highest level since the end of October and up +12.8% YTD.
With this backdrop, markets’expectations for near-term rate cuts continued to inch lower, with pricing of a rate cut by June down to 60% for the Fed and to 80% for the ECB, in both cases the lowest since last October. Markets had priced a 90% likelihood of an ECB June cut as recently as Thursday, so that’s a notable move considering how much ECB commentary has coalesced around June as the most likely timing for a first cut. On a related topic, overnight Peter Sidorov published a report diving into the state of the credit cycles across the US and Europe, and discussing what implications these have for the economic outlook and prospects for rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic.
The pro-inflationary risk-on tone meant that US Treasuries continued to sell off across the curve, and both the 2yr yield (+0.4bps) and the 10yr yield (+1.8bps) closed at their highest level since November, leaving the 10yr yield at 4.325%. Both 2yr and 10yr yields have risen for the past six sessions, the longest such run since May 2023. These sovereign bond losses were echoed in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds up +1.8bps, whilst the 2yr German yield (+0.3bps) hit its highest level since November, at 2.95%. That said, it wasn’t all bad news for European sovereigns, as there was a narrowing in spreads in line with the broader risk-on move. For example, the spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds tightened by -3.6bps to 1.22%, the lowest since November 2021.
For equities, there was a rather different pattern in Europe, as the STOXX 600 ended the day -0.17% lower. That marked a 3rd consecutive daily decline for the index, and there were larger losses for Swedish equities, with the OMX Stockholm 30 down -1.14%. Elsewhere, there wasn’t a massive amount of movement, however, with the FTSE 100 (-0.06%), the CAC 40 (-0.20%) and the DAX (-0.02%) all seeing little change.
Lastly, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although we did get the NAHB’s housing market index from the US for March. That rose to 51 (vs. 48 expected), which marks a 4th consecutive monthly gain for the index.
To the day ahead, and data releases include Canada’s CPI for February, US housing starts and building permits for February, and in Germany there’s the ZEW survey for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s de Cos.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities mixed, Dollar bid & JPY lower post-BoJ hike; US 20yr supply due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 06:42 AM
European bourses are mixed; US equity futures are lower, RTY underperforms
BoJ carried out a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying; RBA U/C, dovish tweak to guidance
Dollar is firmer and trades around 104.00, JPY underperforms post-BoJ, AUD pressured post-RBA
Bonds incrementally firmer as attention turns to US 20yr supply
Crude and XAU are modesty softer, weighed on by the stronger Dollar
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.1%) began the session on a mixed footing though have caught a slight bid in recent trade, and reside near session highs; the AEX (+0.4%) outperforms, lifted by gains in Unilever (+4.5%).
European sectors are mixed; Energy takes the top spot, with Crude just off recent highs whilst Consumer Products and Services is hampered by broader weakness in Luxury names, after weak Chinese price action overnight.
US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.3%) are modestly lower, with mild underperformance in the RTY as it continues the prior day’s weakness.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
DXY is boosted by the post-BoJ softness in the JPY. DXY has reached a high of 104.06, bringing into play the March peak of 104.29 into view.
EUR is swept up by the broadly firmer USD as the pair pulls back from a 1.0906 peak yesterday. If the descent continues, support comes via the 200DMA at 1.0838. EUR downside came to a halt on firm German ZEW metrics.
GBP is softer vs. the USD. Cable is resting on its 50DMA at 1.2683 with UK-specifics lacking ahead of CPI metrics tomorrow and the BoE on Thursday.
JPY is the laggard across the majors despite the BoJ ending NIRP. The move was widely expected and despite Ueda opening the door to further hikes, markets expect any hiking campaign by the Bank to be a shallow one. USD/JPY up to 150.69 at best.
Antipodeans are both faring poorly vs. the USD. AUD eyeing a test of 0.65 to the downside where a large option expiry lies and bids are expected; the RBA kept its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0985 vs exp. 7.2056 (prev. 7.0943).
Bunds are firmer after being incrementally softer on Monday. Newsflow has been dominated by the BoJ but read-across to EGBs is ultimately limited; EGBs saw modest upside following the better-than-expected German ZEW figures, with Bunds printing highs at 131.89.
USTs are following EGBs and holds around the 110-00 mark. 20yr supply takes attention ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with EGBs; Gilts caught a bid following the UK auction and in tandem with a lift in EGBs post-ZEW, currently at 98.90.
The BoJ’s exit from NIRP & YCC saw an initial dip in JGBs and sent the accompanying 10yr yield back to its earlier session high of 0.77%. Thereafter, JGB price action was volatile before settling around 145.60. A pullback which occurred as some of the dovish elements were digested.
EU opens books to sell EUR-denominated Feb 2050 green NGEU bonds; guidance +82bps to mid-swap; to sell EUR 6bln.
Order for the new Italian 10yr I/L BTP are in excess of EUR 35bln, according to leads; spread a +23bps over the maturing May 2023 BTP.
UK sells GBP 2bln 4.75% 2043 Gilt: b/c 3.41x (prev. 3.62x), average yield 4.467% (prev. 4.391%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps)
Subdued trade across the crude complex this morning, with prices taking a breather after yesterday’s rise; Brent meanders around USD 86.75/bbl after printing a high above USD 87/bbl yesterday.
Mild downward bias across precious metals amid a firmer Dollar with little reaction to the BoJ overnight as traders gear up for the FOMC and then the BoE; XAU hovers just above USD 2,150/oz.
Base metals are softer across the board amid the stronger Dollar and following weak Chinese trade overnight.
UBS sees Brent likely trading between USD 80-90/bbl range this year, with end-June forecast of USD 86/bbl; extension of voluntary OPEC+ cuts for another three months will likely keep oil market underpinned in Q2 2024.
ECB’s Centeno said cutting rates may help prevent a recession.
ECB’s de Guindos says “looking at recent inflation developments, we can see a very clear disinflationary process. This is reflected in both headline and core inflation readings; will have more information in June”.
ECB’s De Cos says in June we could start cutting rates but it is conditional on data
SNB: Identifies a need for action with capital regulations. Regarding AT1 instruments, the aim should be to strengthen their contribution through a timely suspension of buybacks/interest payments alongside a conversion into CET1 capital earlier
DATA RECAP
German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar) -80.5 vs. Exp. -82.0 (Prev. -81.7); ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 31.7 vs. Exp. 20.5 (Prev. 19.9); Economic expectations for Germany are significantly improving; at the same time more than 80% of those surveyed anticipate that the ECB will cut interest rates in the next 6 months.
EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Mar) 33.5 (Prev. 25)
EU Wages In Euro Zone (Q4) 3.1% (Prev. 5.3%, Rev. 5.2%); Labour Costs YY (Q4) 3.4% (Prev. 5.3%, Rev. 5.2%)
WSJ’s Timiraos “Fed officials have a bias to cut rates but need a credible justification to get started”; “Officials won’t put recession risk front and center this week. Yet that risk is likely to drive its thinking over the remainder of the year”.
US Congressional leaders and the White House reached an agreement to avert a partial shutdown and fund the government through September 30th, according to people familiar with the negotiations cited by Bloomberg.
US Senators will host a classified briefing on Wednesday with Biden admin national security officials regarding the threats posed by TikTok, according to Reuters citing a congressional aide.
BofA Fund Manager Survey (March): global growth expectations are at a two year high, recession risks dissipating. Long Magnificent 7 remains the most crowded trade, ahead of short China equities.
AstraZeneca (AZN LN) to acquire Fusion (FUSN) for USD 21/shr (prev. close 10.64/shr) in cash closing plus a non-transferable CVR of USD 3/shr in USD 2.4bln deal.
NVIDIA (NVDA) announces Omniverse Cloud APIs to power wave of industrial digital twin software tools and announces Drive Thor. Launches generative AI microservices for developers to create and deploy generative AI copilots across NVIDIA CUDA GPU installed base and it introduces software to help developers sell their AI models. Healthcare launches generative AI microservices to advance drug discovery, medtech and digital health. Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA announce major integrations to accelerate generative AI for Enterprises Everywhere, while Microsoft Azure is to adopt NVIDIA Grace Blackwell super chip to accelerate customer and first-party AI offerings. Announces Earth Climate digital twin with Taiwan’s Weather Administration among the first to adopt new Earth-2 cloud APIs. Blackwell platform arrives to power a new era of computing; Introduces Blackwell B200 AI chip. -0.5% in pre-market trade
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he spoke with Biden about achieving goals in the Gaza war while providing needed humanitarian aid, while it was also reported that President Biden reiterated ‘deep concerns’ about Israel conducting ground operations in Rafah during the call with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
Israeli officials said PM Netanyahu narrowed the mandate of the negotiating delegation and set red lines for what they can accept, according to Axios.
US military said it destroyed seven anti-ship missiles and three unmanned aerial vehicles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, while Houthi media reported six US-British raids near Hodeidah, Yemen, according to Al Arabiya.
Syrian army ground defences confronted targets in the sky of Damascus and state media reported that Israeli airstrikes were targeting the countryside of Syria’s Damascus.
“Israeli official to the broadcaster: The talks in Doha were positive and we expect difficult, complex and long negotiations”, according to Sky News Arabia.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (-5.1%) continues to sink lower and now back below USD 64k, with Ethereum (-7.1%) extending losses to a higher degree.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed as markets digested the first of this week’s central bank announcements.
ASX 200 finished with mild gains after a lack of hawkish surprises at the RBA policy announcement in which it kept rates unchanged and reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination, while there was also a slight tweak in its language as guidance around further tightening was softened.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned after a widely telegraphed and dovish exit from NIRP, YCC and ETF/J-REIT buying which a Nikkei source report had flagged, while the central bank also announced its monthly bond purchase intentions and said it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB buying or conduct fixed-rate operations in the event of a rapid rise in yields.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by weakness in tech stocks as the EU mulls joining the US in reviewing risks of Chinese legacy chips and is flagging potential risks to national security and supply chains.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
RBA kept its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and inflation continues to moderate but remains high. RBA stated the board is not ruling anything in or out on interest rates (prev. a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out) and data is consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs. Furthermore, it noted that higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy and the board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
RBA Governor Bullock said they are making progress in the fight against inflation but reiterated inflation remains high and noted recent data suggests they are on the right track and they are keeping a keen eye on employment numbers. Bullock stated that risks to the outlook are finely balanced and war isn’t won yet on inflation, while she noted the change of statement language is in response to data.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a visit to New Zealand that China is ready to work with New Zealand to implement an upgraded version of the China-New Zealand FTA and the two sides should launch negotiations on a negative list of service trade as soon as possible to push bilateral cooperation to a new level. Furthermore, he stated that China-New Zealand relations maintain a leading position among China’s relations with developed countries, while it was also reported that New Zealand PM Luxon intends to visit China in the coming months following this week’s meetings with China’s Foreign Minister.
China State Council issues action plan to make greater efforts to attract and utilise foreign investments; plan is to expand market access and raise the level of liberalisation of foreign investment
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 0.12 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 0.97bln (exp. 0.93bln).
BoJ changed its monetary policy framework in which it ended negative interest rate policy and abandoned YCC, while it will guide the overnight call rate in the range of 0%-0.1% and apply 0.1% interest to all excess reserves parked at the central bank. BoJ also announced to end ETF and J-REIT purchases, as well as gradually reduce the amount of purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds whereby it will discontinue purchases of CP and corporate bonds in about one year. However, it stated that it will continue roughly the current amount of JGB buying and it expects to maintain an accommodative monetary environment for the time being. Furthermore, the BoJ announced its planned bond purchases and stated that in case of a rapid rise in long-term rates, it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB purchases or conduct fixed-rate purchase operations of JGBs, while it will provide loans under Fund Provisioning Measure to stimulate bank lending with an interest rate of 0.1% and a 1-year duration.
BoJ PRESS CONFERENCE: Governor Ueda says BoJ has confirmed the virtuous cycle of wages and prices; Accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being. Click here for full commentary.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says the government’s view of the economy is the same as that of the BoJ; closely monitoring the economy and financial markets, including FX after the BoJ decision.
Japan’s Business Lobby Keidanren Chief says the appropriate decision was taken at the appropriate time, when asked on the BoJ announcement; does not think USD/JPY at 150 reflects Japan’s economic fundamentals; Yen should be firmer considering fundamentals.
Japan PM Kishida believes it is appropriate that accommodative monetary environment is maintained; did not discuss current issues with BoJ’s Ueda
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.17 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207.64 PTS OR 1.24% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 263.16 PTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1992 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2108 /Oil UP TO 82.82 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86,83/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
Finally the Bank of Japan kills the world’s last negative interest rate. Instead of the yen strengthening it weakens
(zerohedge)
Bank Of Japan (Finally) Kills The World’s Last Negative Interest Rate, Yen Weakens
MONDAY, MAR 18, 2024 – 11:45 PM
As has been thoroughly warned, straw-manned, leaked, and hinted at over the past few weeks (here, here, and here for example), The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates tonight for the first time since 2007. This move ends the world’s last negative interest rate policy.
The vote, at 7-2 to scrap the negative interest rate (setting the policy rate in range between 0% to 0.1%), was closer than many expected with policy board members Nakamura and Noguchi dissented.
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, the bank has abandoned its yield curve control policy.
The BOJ will continue to purchase JGBs with “broadly the same amount as before,” but buying of ETFs and J-REITs has apparently been scrapped (while laying out a plan to scrap corporate debt and commercial paper buying).
In terms of forward guidance, Bloomberg notes that the bank isn’t offering much. It says it will continue to pay attention to developments in financial and FX markets, and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
This was all in line with what had leaked out in domestic media reports over the past week but USDJPY still rose on the news (yen weakness)…
The BOJ actually downgraded its assessment of consumer spending and production, so there’s still a sense of caution.
The BoJ’s move comes as inflation has gradually returned to the nation with the most immediate catalyst being last week, when Japan’s largest union announced its biggest annual wage hike in three decades.
Despite the runway having been heavily foamed ahead of tonight’s decision, Veteran market commentator John Authers warns of significant implications for the rest of the world:
“Waiting over the years for Japan to beat deflation and raise rates has been rather like hoping for Lucy to let Charlie Brown kick the football, but if the BOJ is briefing the press like this, it must be a very real possibility,” he writes.
“There are implications for carry traders, and for Japan’s giant neighbor, China.”
Finally, even with the decision to pull the trigger, we note that the debate over whether the BOJ has met the supposedly main condition for raising rates – stable 2% inflation – is hardly over.
As Bloomberg reports, inflation may slow as the impact of imports-driven price gains wears off, meaning that if officials go ahead and change policy, they could end up facing criticism in the future that they’ve passed a premature judgement on prices, former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi recently wrote. “And that in turn could become an obstacle to smooth policy normalization,” he said.
END
Yen: wrong way Corrigan!
Yen Tumbles After The First BOJ Rate Hike In 17 Years; It Won’t Last
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 10:40 AM
It was one small step for the Bank of Japan, but a giant leap for the yen — albeit in the wrong direction, at least against the dollar. What gives?
There are several explanations for why the yen moved sharply… in the wrong direction after a historic BOJ move meant to signal tightening in order to bring prices lower, contain runaway inflation and, generally, boost the yen.
Let’s start with the fundamental one: according to Bloomberg’s Ven Ram, the real currency reaction will have to wait for Wednesday.
As the Bloomberg commentator notes, in line with news reports overnight, Governor Kazuo Ueda exited negative rates in a historic decision, but also scrapped yield curve control and ended its purchases of exchange-traded funds. The domestic markets, though, seem unenthused: nominal Japanese government bond yields fell alongside the currency, and even stocks couldn’t muster the excuse of a weaker currency to climb higher.
What gives?
The yen’s broad exchange rate is actually higher this month, though no one is getting excited. As trading interest goes in the currency markets, USD/JPY towers head and shoulders above other crosses, and there the headlines have been somber. The surge in front-end Treasury yields over the past week may not be as historic as the BOJ’s decision, but matters a whole lot more and then some for the dollar, which has made a meal of it.
The market’s deepest fear is that the Federal Reserve’s dot plot on Wednesday will take back one of the three interest rate cuts envisioned earlier. Even if the Fed were to do that, we know from Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements that the central bank doesn’t want to keep rates as restrictive for a minute longer than it needs to, which means that the sell-off in Treasuries can’t continue for too long — fading some of the recent strength in the dollar.
Should the Fed’s dot plot indicate only two cuts this year, the yen will continue to be under a cloud. If the dot plot is intact and Powell strikes a dovish tone similar to his Congressional testimony, the yen will make a comeback. An immediate stop for USD/JPY will be around 144, levels that would be more aligned with its fundamentals.
What about the path beyond the short term? Here, Ram’s view differs slightly from that of Simon White, who earlier today made the following observation:
FX hedging will push the yen stronger, eliciting yet more hedging. It is this dynamic that drove USDJPY to rapidly drop 20% through the first half of 2016 (which can be seen in the rise in the hedge ratio around that time in the above chart). The 500-1 odds offered on USDJPY touching 130 by the end of Q2 – a level it was at little more than a year ago – sound very generous.
If inflation becomes ingrained, then eventually the yen will succumb to it, but in the shorter term, hedging flows as well as capital repatriation are likely to be the currency’s bigger driver. That also means an added fillip to unhedged foreign holders of Japanese assets.
Instead, Ram writes that with the “BOJ likely to move on rates at a pace that may be as exciting as watching paint dry, much of the impulse for the yen will come from dollar weakness. That moment will come when it becomes abundantly clear that Fed rate cuts, which have so far proved elusive, are imminent.”
In either case, both agree: a much stronger yen is coming… and here a third Bloomberg commentator is in agreement, and this time from a purely tactical perspective: according to FX expert Vassilis Karamanis, for disappointed yen bulls, there’s “at least once again a clear tactical trade in sight”, and explains:
Given that the end of negative interest rates in Japan had been priced in by the FX market, the focus today is on forward guidance from the central bank. And by indicating that financial conditions will remain accommodative, policymakers are signaling that tightening in Japan will be nothing like the cycles adopted by other major central banks since 2022. The risk of a one-and-done hike is very much alive.
The yen had been under pressure against the dollar in the run-up to the policy decision, more than halving its gains since the market started positioning in late February for a rate increase. USD/JPY rose above 150 this morning, after hitting a 146.49 cycle low earlier this month. Now the year’s double-top at 150.85-89 is at risk.
This provides the opportunity to anyone looking to jump back on the yen-long bus to have a predefined, definitive stop loss. Those with a longer-term outlook, or deeper pockets, may look to sell rallies all the way up to the November high at 151.91, with the 2022 cycle high standing at 151.95. Chart watchers may be patient until the risk level of a daily DeMark Sell Countdown at 152.51 comes into play.
The problem for yen bulls is that price action into and after the BOJ decision suggests risk-reward isn’t what it used to be. If the greenback falls all the way to its recent lows, that would mean a 2:1 payout ratio for those short the pair; decent enough for spot traders. But options pricing signals caution.
It’s not that investors are rushing to own yen-downside exposure through options. One-week risk reversals are trading at 113 basis points in favor of the Japanese currency — a sharp contrast to a reading of 243 basis points a week ago, but one that matches the past year’s average. It’s not about directionality, but expectations of wider ranges ahead. That means USD/JPY could find mean-reversion support sooner than shorts are looking for, with the 55-DMA now standing at 148.24 and exhibiting an upward bias.
One-month implied volatility is close to 7% and heading for a sixth daily decline. If it drops another 40 basis points, hedging costs on the tenor will hit their lowest level in two years. At the same time, demand for low-delta options over the next three months is near the lowest level since 2021.
It’s not just about the BOJ’s patient stance. The latest move north in USD/JPY is also due to money-market bets on the Federal Reserve, with traders now looking for a total of 70 basis points of easing for the year, compared with 92 basis points on March 8. A rate cut by the Fed isn’t fully priced in until September, so there seems to be no imminent trigger for a big yen move in either direction.
Whether Fed communication this week prompts changes in rate expectations will be crucial for volatility, especially in a world where betting against wide ranges has become a profit-minting machine. But even if the market turns still less dovish on the Fed, the risk of intervention by Japanese officials in the spot market could cap expectations for a big, or abrupt, dollar rally.
All in all, Karamanis concludes that this historic but well-communicated BOJ decision won’t be what causes yen volatility to explode and “yen-funded carry trades still make sense” although the more the yen drops, the higher the imported inflation, the more the BOJ will have to hike to contain it, and so on. For now, Japanese investors may refrain from repatriating capital until the central bank becomes more hawkish, or the Fed gets closer to cutting rates. So while USDJPY may be all about trading familiar ranges for the foreseeable future, in the longer run it is going much lower.
Soldier killed during operation; military says it had ‘concrete intelligence’ terror operatives regrouped in Strip’s largest medical center; 200 suspects captured
Hamas gunmen open fire at troops from Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, early March 18, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The Israel Defense Forces early Monday morning launched a raid on Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, amid intelligence that senior Hamas officials were in the area and using the hospital to plan and carry out terror activity, the military said.
During the operation troops killed a senior Hamas commander, according to the IDF. One Israeli soldier was also killed amid a gun battle with terror operatives in the area of the hospital before dawn.
The raid was launched at around 2:30 a.m., with troops of the IDF’s 401st Armored Brigade and other units, including special forces and the Shin Bet security agency, encircling the hospital, the largest medical center in the Gaza Strip.
As troops arrived at the medical center, Hamas gunmen opened fire “from within the hospital compound,” the IDF and the Shin Bet said.
The troops returned fire, killing and wounding several gunmen, according to the IDF.
Staff Sgt. Matan Vinogradov, who was killed during an IDF raid against Hamas operatives at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, early March 18, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
By Monday evening, some 20 Hamas gunmen were killed inside the hospital premises and another 20 were killed in the surrounding area, the IDF said.
In one incident inside the hospital, the IDF said troops of the Navy’s Shayetet 13 commando unit killed a senior Hamas commander, Faiq Mabhouh.
Mabhouh, who served as the head of operations in Hamas’s internal security, was armed and hiding inside the Shifa complex, “from which he was working to advance terror activity,” the IDF said.
Mabhouh was killed amid an exchange of fire during an attempt to arrest him, the IDF said. In a nearby room, the IDF said troops recovered a cache of weapons.
Mabhouh, according to the IDF and Shin Bet, was responsible for the “synchronization” of various Hamas units in the Gaza Strip, including during the war.
The slain operative was the brother of senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mabhouh, who was allegedly assassinated by the Mossad in Dubai in 2010, Israeli defense sources confirmed to The Times of Israel. Mahmoud Mabhouh was chief of logistics and weapons procurement for the military wing of Hamas.
The IDF released footage (above) showing what it said were Hamas gunmen shooting at troops from the hospital premises and the nearby area as the raid began. The footage also showed a roadside bomb being detonated against an Israeli armored vehicle, which the IDF said was activated by operatives at Shifa.
Also at Shifa, the IDF said troops also found weapons and money provided by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to its operatives at the hospital
Israel’s intelligence indicated that Hamas operatives and commanders from the northern Gaza Strip recently arrived at the hospital premises to use the buildings as a command center to manage the fighting against IDF troops and carry out attacks against Israel.
The IDF said in a statement that it had “concrete intelligence” Hamas operatives had regrouped at the hospital and were planning terror activity.
There was no information on hostages being held in the area, according to the IDF.
Several hours into the raid, the IDF said it had established control over the area, with troops surrounding several buildings at the Shifa complex while calling on Hamas members inside to come out and surrender.
Suspects were being questioned at the hospital by field interrogators of the Shin Bet and the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504. The IDF said that as of Monday evening, some 200 suspects had been detained by troops. The military claimed that some of those captured were confirmed terror operatives.
In a statement overnight, the military said troops at the hospital were “briefed in advance regarding the importance of preventing harm to civilians, patients, medical teams, and medical equipment” and that Arabic speakers were with the security forces to facilitate communication with patients and staff.
IDF doctors were also on hand “to assist those in need.” Once the operation at the hospital is over, “the IDF will continue the humanitarian effort and provide food, water, and additional supplies to the patients and civilians in the complex,” the military said.
Patients and the medical staff at Shifa were not ordered to evacuate the hospital but the military created pathways for civilians to leave the area, the IDF said.
During the raid, the IDF called on those living near hospital and residents of the nearby Gaza City neighborhood of Rimal to evacuate to the al-Mawasi “humanitarian zone” on the coast of southern Gaza.
Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, published a map of the zones that need to be evacuated alongside the announcement. He said the civilians must evacuate south via the Strip’s coastal road.
At the beginning of Israel’s ground offensive against Hamas, in late October, the IDF called on all Palestinian civilians in northern Gaza to evacuate south, but some 300,000 have remained since regardless.
In an overnight video statement, IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the IDF was conducting a “high-precision operation in limited areas of Shifa Hospital, following concrete intelligence that demanded immediate action.”
“We know that senior Hamas terrorists have regrouped inside the hospital,” he said, “and are using it to command attacks against Israel.”
He said forces have undergone “specified training to prepare them for the sensitive environment and the complex scenarios they may encounter” at the hospital.
“We seek no harm to the civilians Hamas is hiding behind,” he said, adding that the IDF would conduct its operation “with caution and care while ensuring that the hospital continues its important functions.”
“We call upon all Hamas terrorists hiding in [the] hospital: Surrender immediately. Medical facilities should never be exploited for terror. Hamas must be held accountable,” he said.
The IDF has repeatedly accused Hamas of deliberately operating from civilian areas, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and shelters.
Last year, the IDF presented evidence to back up longstanding allegations that Hamas used Shifa Hospital as a major operational hub and command center and that the hospital sat atop tunnels housing headquarters for Hamas fighters who were using patients as shields. The US has corroborated the evidence presented by Israel.
These images released by the IDF on November 21, 2023, show the inside of a Hamas tunnel found under Gaza’s Shifa Hospital. (Israel Defense Forces)
The IDF completed destroying the tunnels under Shifa in December. Hamas’s latest alleged activity at the hospital took place in its buildings and not tunnels, according to the IDF.
Last month, the New York Times reported that a tunnel underneath Shifa was used extensively by Hamas for military operations and is nearly twice as long as the IDF had previously revealed.
Israeli troops first entered the hospital on November 5, making the medical center a major focus of the operation against Hamas in Gaza. The was was triggered on October 7 when some 3,000 terrorists stormed the border with Israel and unleashed an unprecedented attack on the country’s southern communities, killing some 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and taking 253 as hostages to Gaza, where more than half remain.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 31,000 people in the Strip have been killed in the fighting so far, a figure that cannot be independently verified, and includes those killed by the terror groups’ failed rocket launches and some 13,000 Hamas terrorists Israel says it has killed in battle. Israel also says it killed some 1,000 gunmen inside Israel on October 7.
end
ISRAEL/GAZA/SHIFA HOSPITAL
NOW 50 TERRORISTS DEAD!
Also 180 detained with 20 released
IDF: Troops killed over 50 Hamas gunmen so far in ongoing raid at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital
The IDF says troops have so far killed more than 50 Hamas gunmen during its ongoing raid at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital.
The operation, which began early Monday morning, is being carried out by the Navy’s Shayetet 13 commando unit, the 401st Armored Brigade, and the Shin Bet security agency.
The IDF says that some 180 suspects have been captured so far in the raid. Yesterday, the IDF reported 200 suspects had been detained, indicating some had been released.
Meanwhile in central Gaza, the IDF says the Nahal Brigade killed several Hamas operatives over the past day. In one incident, the Nahal troops spotted a gunman opening fire at them, and directed a tank to shell the operative, killing him.
In the Khan Younis suburb al-Qarara, in southern Gaza, the IDF says the 7th Armored Brigade and Air Force carried out strikes on several Hamas sites over the past day, including an anti-tank launching position used in a recent attack which did not cause any injuries.
The IDF also releases footage showing several recent strikes in the Gaza Strip.
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Airstrikes into Syria. Also uSA destroys Houthi weaponry
(jerusalem post)
Airstrikes reported in Syria, US destroys Houthi weaponry
Syria claims Israeli airstrikes hit Damascus • US military destroys Houthis’s anti-ship missiles, drones and weapons storage containers.
Syria’s defense ministry claims an Israeli airstrike hit Damascus’s countryside on Tuesday morning.
By REUTERSMARCH 19, 2024 01:35Updated:
MARCH 19, 2024 03:22
Smoke rises from Syria’s Kurdish-controlled northeast city of Qamishli, Syria October 5, 2023.(photo credit: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)
Israel early on Tuesday launched missiles at several military targets outside the Syrian capital Damascus resulting in some “material damage,” Syria’s defense ministry said.
Syrian air defenses intercepted Israeli “missiles and shot down some of them,” the ministry added in a statement.
Iran has been a major backer of President Bashar al-Assad during Syria’s nearly 12-year-old conflict. Its support for Damascus and the Lebanese group Hezbollah has drawn regular Israeli air strikes meant to curb Tehran’s extraterritorial military power.
View of the tripoint border between Israel, Syria, and Jordan, northern Israel, on February 15, 2024 (credit: MICHAEL GILADI/FLASH90)
Those strikes have ramped up in line with flaring regional tensions since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, with more than half a dozen Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers killed in suspected Israeli strikes on Syria since December.
As a result, the Guards have scaled back deployment of their senior officers in Syria and have planned to rely more on allied Shi’ite militia to preserve their sway there, Reuters reported in February.
END
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/RAFAH
Biden is a fool
(Times of Israel)
Biden rules out support for major Rafah op, in first call with PM in over a month
After long indicating US could back offensive if IDF ensures civilians’ safety, president says he wants a more targeted approach; White House says PM agreed to send team to discuss
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, second right, confers with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, right, during their meeting with US President Joe Biden, left, to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023. (Miriam Alster/Pool Photo via AP)
US President Joe Biden effectively ruled out any potential support for a major Israeli ground offensive in Rafah during a call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan revealed, changing course after the administration had indicated for months it could support an operation there under certain conditions.
“A major ground operation there would be a mistake. It would lead to more innocent civilian deaths, worsen the already dire humanitarian crisis, deepen the anarchy in Gaza and further isolate Israel internationally,” Sullivan said, offering a readout on the 45-minute call in his opening remarks at a White House press briefing.
The call between Netanyahu and Biden was their 20th since the outbreak of war following Hamas’s October 7 attack, but their first since February 15. It came four days after an unprecedented speech from longtime pro-Israel stalwart and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer calling for early elections in Israel to replace Netanyahu, who the most senior Jewish lawmaker in Congress said has “lost his way” and branded as an obstacle to peace along with Hamas, the Israeli far-right and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Biden on Friday hailed the speech and said many Americans feel as Schumer does, though the White House clarified that elections were a matter for the Israeli people to decide. Schumer’s remarks infuriated Netanyahu, who has accused the US of trying to interfere in Israel’s domestic politics.
Sullivan hit back on Monday, charging Israel interferes in American politics more than the other way around.
But the purpose of his press conference was to present the new, hardened US stance regarding a widescale Israeli operation in Rafah.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaks at a press briefing at the White House in Washington, March 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
For months, the US indicated that it could potentially support an offensive if — and only if — Israel presented a credible plan beforehand for how to protect the over one million civilians sheltering in the southern Gaza city.
Netanyahu has said the IDF will evacuate the civilians to areas north of Rafah before beginning the operation and declared Friday that he had approved the military’s plans for the offensive. US officials speaking on condition of anonymity to The Times of Israel in recent weeks increasingly expressed their skepticism that such a large-scale evacuation would be possible, but the administration refrained until Monday from publicly coming out against the planned Israeli operation altogether.
“The key goals Israel wants to achieve in Rafah can be done by other means,” Sullivan asserted, revealing that Biden asked Netanyahu during the call to send an interagency team to Washington “to lay out an alternative approach that would target key Hamas elements in Rafah and secure the Egypt-Gaza border without a major ground invasion.” Sullivan said Netanyahu agreed to the president’s request to send a delegation.
“Obviously, [Netanyahu] has his own point of view on a Rafah operation, but he agreed that he would send a team to Washington to have this discussion, and we look forward to those discussions,” the US national security adviser added.
Sullivan clarified that Biden again rejected during the call “the straw-man (argument) that raising questions about Rafah is the same as raising questions about defeating Hamas. That’s just nonsense. Our position is that Hamas should not be allowed a safe haven in Rafah or anywhere else.”
Several hours after Sullivan spoke, Biden issued a statement on X about the phone call with Netanyahu.
“I continued to affirm that Israel has a right to go after Hamas, a group of terrorists responsible for the worst massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust,” Biden said. “And I reiterated the need for an immediate ceasefire as part of a deal to free hostages, lasting several weeks, so we can get hostages home and surge aid to civilians in Gaza.”
Biden also confirmed he asked Netanyahu “to send a team to Washington to discuss ways to target Hamas without a major ground operation in Rafah.”
A potential Israeli operation in Rafah has been a point of contention in ties with the US for months. The southern Gaza city is just about the last part of the Strip where Israeli ground forces have not entered en masse, after starting in northern Gaza and making their way down the enclave. Jerusalem says an offensive in Rafah is necessary to dismantle Hamas’s four battalions there, but it is also looking to gain control of the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza to prevent the smuggling of weapons into the Strip after the war.
Palestinians line up for a meal in Rafah, Gaza Strip, on Tuesday, March 12, 2024. (AP/Fatima Shbair)
The administration began hardening its approach in recent weeks, with Biden saying earlier this month that an Israeli offensive in Rafah would be a “red line,” adding that “there cannot [be] 30,000 more Palestinians dead as a consequence of going after” Hamas. But he then appeared to backtrack, insisting that “there’s no red line (in which) I’m going to cut off all weapons so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them.”
Sullivan reacted somewhat angrily on Monday in response to another question about whether Biden told Netanyahu that a Rafah operation is a “red line” for the US. He called the query an “obsession” of the media that “is not stated as a declaration of our policy, and we’ve made that clear.”
Regardless, no operation is seen to be imminent, given that Israel has withdrawn most of its reservists from Gaza, and thousands would likely need to be called up again before any major offensive in Rafah could begin. Netanyahu reportedly told security cabinet ministers on Friday that he never said the operation would take place during Ramadan, which ends on April 9.
Talk by Israeli leaders of a coming operation in Rafah appears to be part of an effort to put pressure on Hamas to agree to the hostage deal currently being negotiated or risk having its last stronghold dismantled by the IDF.
Why Biden is ‘deeply concerned’
Sullivan laid out the three reasons why Biden is “deeply concerned” about a massive Israeli offensive in Rafah akin to the ones carried out thus far in other major Gaza cities.
He noted that over one million people are sheltering in Rafah after fleeing repeatedly from elsewhere in Gaza.
A girl carries a canvas bag filled with food aid bearing the logo of non-profit non-governmental organisation World Central Kitchen, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on March 17, 2024. (MOHAMMED ABED / AFP)
“They have nowhere else to go. Gaza’s other major cities have largely been destroyed, and Israel has not presented us or the world with a plan for how or where they would safely move those civilians, let alone feed and house them and ensure access to basic things like sanitation,” Sullivan said.
Rafah is also the primary entry point for humanitarian assistance to Gaza from Egypt and Israel, Sullivan noted, lamenting that it would be shut down or severely hampered “at the moment when it is most sorely needed” if an IDF offensive moved forward.
“Third, Rafah is on the border with Egypt, which has voiced its deep alarm over a major military operation there and has even raised questions about its future relationship with Israel as a result of any impending military operation,” the US national security adviser said.
‘How to ensure a sustainable campaign’
Sullivan went on to argue that Israel’s latest military operation against Hamas in Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital highlights Washington’s concern that Jerusalem lacks a sustainable strategy in targeting the terror group.
“Israel cleared Shifa once. Hamas came back into Shifa, which raises questions about how to ensure a sustainable campaign against Hamas so that it cannot regenerate, cannot retake territory,” Sullivan said.
Weapons found at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, March 18, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Washington has long accused Israel of failing to advance a viable alternative to Hamas rule, by rejecting efforts to promote local Palestinians linked to the Palestinian Authority with support from Arab allies to fill the vacuum created by the terror group’s initial dismantlement by Israel.
Instead, Netanyahu has sought to empower local clan leaders with no ties to the PA or Hamas to facilitate the distribution of aid and eventually govern the Strip, though, there are no indications this strategy has worked.
Various spots in northern Gaza have seen a resurgence of Hamas activity in recent weeks, with the IDF reportedly pleading with the political leadership to make more clear-cut, realistic decisions regarding the post-war management of Gaza or risk wasting the military’s gains.
“From our perspective, it is connecting Israel’s objective to a sustainable strategy. That is the final thing we need to focus on right now, rather than have Israel go smash into Rafah. That is what the president talked to the prime minister about today,” Sullivan said.
Still, he defended the aim of the latest Israeli operation in Shifa, noting the IDF is pursuing senior Hamas commanders and that “it is clear that Hamas fired back at Israel from that hospital.”
Sullivan also reiterated that Hamas continues to use civilian infrastructure “to store weapons, for command and control and to house fighters.”
“That places an added burden on Israel that very few militaries have to deal with.”
File: Israeli soldiers stand outside Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, November 22, 2023. (Victor R. Caivano/AP)
Sullivan became the first official from any government to publicly confirm reports that Israel killed Hamas’s number three military official, Marwan Issa, in a strike last week.
“The rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network, and justice will come for them too. We are helping to ensure that,” Sullivan said.
“Israel has made significant progress against Hamas. They’ve broken a significant number of Hamas battalions and killed thousands of Hamas fighters including senior commanders,” he noted.
He also clarified Biden did not threaten Netanyahu with repercussions if Israel moves forward with a major ground invasion in Rafah.
“What the president said today was, ‘I want you to understand, Mr. Prime Minister, exactly where I am on this. I am for the defeat of Hamas. I believe that they are an evil terrorist group with not just Israeli, but American blood on their hands,” Sullivan explained.
“‘At the same time. I believe that to get to that (defeat), you need a strategy that works, and that strategy should not involve a major military operation that puts thousands and thousands of civilian, innocent lives at risk in Rafah. There is a better way. Send your team to Washington, and let’s talk about it. We’ll lay out for you what we believe is a better way,’” Sullivan said.
The national security adviser added the US has “every expectation” that Israel will not proceed with a Rafah offensive before the sides discuss the matter in Washington.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress, Washington DC, March 3, 2015. (Amos Ben Gershom/GPO/File)
What interference?
Sullivan was asked during the press briefing whether the US could do more to speak directly to the Israeli people regarding its concerns over an offensive in Rafah. He argued that it was ironic that the press was asking this question given Netanyahu’s recent appearances in American media, in which he has blasted Washington for interfering in Israeli politics.
“In fact, we don’t do nearly as much as they speak into ours,” Sullivan said without elaborating.
Netanyahu has long been criticized by Democrats over what they saw was his support for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, but more notably the 2015 speech that the Israeli premier organized in Congress behind then-president Barack Obama’s back to lobby lawmakers against the Iran nuclear deal.
Sullivan seemed to try and soften his criticism, saying it was not “a constructive answer to your question, just an observation.”
He revealed that Netanyahu on the call raised his concern regarding “a variety of things that have come out in the American press,” but avoided detailing them further.
“From President Biden’s perspective, this is not a question of politics, it’s not a question of public statements, it’s a question of policy and strategy. That’s what he’s focused on, that’s what he was focused on in the call,” Sullivan said.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) departs from the Senate Chambers in the US Capitol Building on March 14, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/AFP)
Hamas added further conditions to hostage deal
Biden was vocally supportive of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 terror onslaught, becoming the first US president to visit Israel during wartime and funneling daily weapons and ammunitions shipments to Israel in addition to dispatching a pair of military aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean in an effort to deter adversaries from joining in the war against the Jewish state. But the rhetorical backing has waned as the fighting has dragged on and as the humanitarian situation in Gaza has turned into a full-blown crisis.
Washington has avoided turning the rhetoric against Jerusalem regarding its prosecution of the war into action, though, and has refrained from conditioning military aid, cutting it off entirely or demanding an immediate ceasefire.
In the meantime, it is working to secure a temporary ceasefire of at least six weeks through a hostage deal, which it hopes to use to negotiate a more enduring truce and advance a regional initiative that would see Arab allies participating in the reconstruction of Gaza, a reformed PA returning to govern the Strip, Saudi Arabi normalizing ties with Israel and Jerusalem agreeing to create a pathway to an eventual Palestinian state.
While the US in recent weeks insisted that Israel was cooperating with the hostage deal and has said it is Hamas that is dragging its feet, Netanyahu has all but rejected the idea of such an agreement to secure a broader regional alignment, as he and the vast majority of his coalition are against a two-state solution.
Israel sent a team of negotiators led by Mossad chief David Barnea to Doha earlier Monday to continue indirect talks on a temporary truce.
Sullivan acknowledged that the effort to secure an extended truce between Israel and Hamas through a hostage deal “has been more elusive than we would have hoped,” but insisted that the Biden administration “will keep pressing because we regard this as an urgent priority.”
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaks at a press briefing at the White House in Washington, March 18, 2024. (AP Photo/ Andrew Harnik)
“Far too little of the energy and the pressure to end this conflict has been applied to Hamas. We will keep pointing that out,” he added.
Hamas in its response last week to the latest hostage deal framework added new conditions that Israel says it cannot accept, Sullivan said, offering the most detailed response from a US official regarding the terror group’s reply last week.
“Hamas has put a proposal on the table — this is after Israel, working with Qatar, Egypt and the United States, had indicated a willingness to move forward on a six-week ceasefire in return for the release of a number of hostages, leading to further phases from there, and Hamas had given us nothing for quite some time,” Sullivan said, reiterating that there could be a deal immediately if Hamas would just agree to release roughly 40 Israeli female, elderly, and wounded hostages.
Instead, Hamas “put a proposal on the table where they’ve added a series of other conditions… The Israeli government has responded by saying they can’t just accept that. They regard some of those conditions as going too far, but that’s what a negotiation is about,” the US national security adviser continued, noting that negotiating teams are currently in Qatar trying to secure a deal.
“We believe that those discussions are very alive, that a deal is possible,” Sullivan said.
Families of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip and activists protest calling for the for their release outside the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, March 17, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/ Flash90)
Actions speak louder than words on aid
Sullivan said Netanyahu indicated during his call with Biden that he would push his government to ensure that more aid enters Gaza, before clarifying that Washington is more interested in seeing results than pledges. It took over two months for Israel to transfer a US shipment of flour into Gaza after agreeing to do so in January.
The national security adviser acknowledged that Israel has taken several steps in recent days to facilitate the entry of more aid into Gaza, including opening a new gate to allow trucks to directly enter northern Gaza from Israel, allowing additional convoys to reach northern Gaza from the southern Strip and expanding the number of trucks entering the enclave from the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings.
However, he noted that the amount of aid has dipped in the past, after initial bursts of improvement, partially due to the breakdown of law and order along with Israeli restrictions that prevent the proper distribution of assistance throughout the Strip once it enters Gaza.
Sullivan said the US will keep working to “flood” the Strip with aid by land, air and sea, adding that Israel is primarily responsible for facilitating the assistance followed by the international community.
He branded as “alarming” a UN-backed report warning that Gaza faces impending famine if steps are not taken to address the crisis.
While Netanyahu’s office did not issue its own readout on the call, the premier did publish a video saying that the two leaders discussed “Israel’s commitment to achieving all the goals of the war: the elimination of Hamas, the release of all our hostages and the promise that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
Aid boat carrying supplies from World Central Kitchen approaches Gaza on March 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Netanyahu stressed that Israel will provide to Gazans “the necessary humanitarian aid that helps achieve these goals.”
The premier has long acknowledged that a humanitarian crisis would force Israel to halt its fighting in Gaza, and pressure on Jerusalem has indeed intensified significantly after dozens of Palestinians were killed swarming an aid convoy as it arrived in the largely cut-off northern Gaza Strip. Israel insists there is no limit to the amount of aid deliveries it is prepared to facilitate, but aid groups blame Israeli restrictions for the slowdown, particularly in northern Gaza where Hamas’s civilian infrastructure has been replaced by a vacuum of lawlessness, which critics say could have been avoided had Netanyahu’s government been advancing a viable alternative to Hamas rule.
Waiting for written assurance
Sullivan said Israel has yet to provide the US with a written assurance that it will use American military aid in line with international law, with only five more days to do so.
“What they have to do by Sunday is just provide credible and reliable assurances that they will abide by their international obligations — not obligations we have imposed upon them, but obligations they have freely accepted with respect to international humanitarian law, which includes not arbitrarily impeding the flow of humanitarian assistance where they can control that,” Sullivan said.
In this December 12, 2016, file photo, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaches to one of the first two next-generation F-35 fighter jets after it landed during an unveiling ceremony upon arrival in Nevatim Air Force Base near Beersheba, Southern Israel. (AP/Ariel Schalit, File)
The written assurance is a new condition that the US placed on all aid recipients, laid out in a memo signed by Biden on February 8. The directive does not single out Israel, but came at a time of increasing calls from progressive lawmakers for conditions on US aid to the Jewish state, amid concerns that Jerusalem was not doing enough to protect civilians in Gaza.
US security aid recipients were already required to use it in line with international law, though the request for written assurances was new.
“I cannot tell you today that they have provided that… They have several more days before they have to do so, and we anticipate that they will,” Sullivan clarified.
The Walla news site reported last Thursday that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had signed off on the written assurance, though Israel has yet to publicly confirm as much.
end
WEST BANK
Israel must secure the Gush Etzion junction. To many are being killed or wounded from Palestinian attacks
(Jerusalem Post)
Two Israelis wounded in shooting attack near Gush Etzion Junction
The terrorist who carried out the attack has been apprehended.
By TZVI JOFFREMARCH 19, 2024 16:46Updated: MARCH 19, 2024 18:17
Two Shin Bet officers were wounded in a shooting attack near the Gush Etzion Junction on Tuesday afternoon, according to the Shin Bet.
One of the victims was in serious, but stable condition, while the other was lightly wounded, according to Shaare Zedek Medical Center.
The terrorist who carried out the attack was shot on the spot and was identified as Ziad Khomeran, a 30-year-old resident of Jenin, according to the Shin Bet. The two Shin Bet officers were operating in the area when they were attacked by Khomeran.
The head of the Gush Etzion Regional Council, Yaron Rosenthal, wished a speedy recovery to the wounded, saying, “The campaign we are in is a campaign of the Zionist movement against the Arab enemy that is being waged in all parts of the country. We have been in Gush Etzion, a front-line post of the State of Israel, for nearly a century. Our grip on this good mountain will continue to deepen. This is our true answer to murderous terrorism.”
General view of the Gush Etzion Junction in the West Bank, July 9, 2020 (credit: GERSHON ELINSON/FLASH90)
IDF arrests nine suspects throughout the West Bank overnight
The IDF, Shin Bet, and Border Police operated throughout the West Bank on Monday night, arresting nine wanted individuals in Nablus, Hebron, Azzun, Al-Masara, and the Binyamin region.
In the Balata Refugee Camp in Nablus, Israeli forces located and destroyed explosive devices that were placed on a road in the area and were intended to harm Israeli forces.
Since the beginning of the war, about 3,500 suspects have been arrested throughout the West Bank, including over 1,500 who were associated with Hamas.
END
HOUTHIS/USA
US military says it destroys Houthi missiles and drones
By REUTERS
MARCH 19, 2024 02:42
The US military said on Monday it destroyed seven anti-ship missiles, three drones and three weapons storage containers in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
“It was determined these weapons presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region,” the US military’s Central Command said in a statement on the social media site X.
END
/RUSSIA/UKRAINE/CRIMEA/UK
Idiots! UK tells Ukraine to focus on targeting Crimea
British military officials advised that Ukraine should focus on defense in its ground fight against Russia in the east while focusing on targeted strikes against Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, The Sunday Timesreported.
The advice was given when British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and UK Army Chief Antony Radakin visited Ukraine last week. The British officials said rather than attacking, Ukrainian forces should hold the line and pull back to more favorable ground if necessary.
“This will allow the Ukrainians to focus their efforts on the Black Sea and Crimea, where their forces, with the help of Western long-range missiles, have landed significant blows over the past six months,” the report said.
A recording of a conversation between German military officers that was recently published by Russian media revealed that the UK has soldiers “on the ground” in Ukraine helping Ukrainian forces use Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of 155 miles, making them capable of hitting targets throughout Crimea.
Attacks on Crimea have always been considered a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the risk of escalation hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s Western backers from assisting with such strikes, as Storm Shadows have been reported to be used in multiple Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.
The UK has also helped Ukraine strike Russian ships in the Black Sea. Another recent report from the Times credited Radakin with helping “the Ukrainians with the strategy to destroy Russian ships and open up the Black Sea.”
Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and territory inside the Russian mainland have increased since it’s become clear Ukraine has no chance of winning on the battlefield.
Poland’s foreign minister earlier this month: NATO troops are already in Ukraine.
Since Russia captured the strategic Donetsk city of Avdiivka last month, Russian forces have been making steady gains in the east, and Ukraine is suffering from serious manpower and weapons shortages.
‘Update 2024: This information is clearly hitting the target. There have been several accounts online (both named and anonymous) running a smear campaign on me and Katherine Watt. Clearly, our information is hitting the target and the perpetrators are upset, but they are not sending the best and the brightest 🙂 Variety of smears included attacks on my character, my family, allegations of being paid by pharma, working with Robert Malone, being paid by Foster Coulson, and much other nonsense. These are quite pathetic smear tactics and the only appropriate responses to them are disregard or ridicule.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRAZIL
the world is going insane all at once:
Bolsonaro Indicted By Brazilian Police For Falsifying Covid-19 Vaccine Records
B
EN
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 11:00 AM
Federal police in Brazil have indicted former President Jair Bolsonaro for falsifying his Covid-19 vaccine card in order to travel to the United States and elsewhere during the pandemic.
Federal prosecutors will review the indictment and decide whether to pursue the case – which would be the first time the former president has faced criminal charges.
According to the indictment, Bolsonaro ordered a top deputy to obtain falsified Covid-19 vaccine records of himself and his 13-year-old daughter in late 2022, right before he flew to Florida for a three-month stay following his election loss.
Brazilian police are also waiting to hear back from the US DOJ on whether Bolsonaro used said cards to enter the United States, which would open him up to further criminal charges, the NY Times reports.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed not to have received the Covid-19 vaccine, but denies any involvement in a plan to falsify his vaccination records. A previous investigation by Brazil’s comptroller general concluded that Bolsonaro’s vaccination records were false.
The records show that Bolsonaro, a COVID-19 skeptic who publicly opposed the vaccine, received a dose of the immunizer in a public healthcare center in Sao Paulo in July 2021. [ZH: hilarious, Reuters calling the vaccine an ‘immunizer.’]
The investigation concluded, however, that the former president had left the city the previous day and didn’t leave Brasilia until three days later, according to a statement.
The nurse listed in the records as having applied the vaccine on Bolsonaro denied doing so and was no longer working at the center. The listed vaccine lot was also not available on that date, the comptroller general’s office said. -Reuters
“It’s a selective investigation. I’m calm, I don’t owe anything,” Bolsonaro told Reuters. “The world knows that I didn’t take the vaccine.”
During the pandemic, Bolsonaro panned the vaccine – and instead insisted on alternative treatments such as Ivermectin, which has antiviral properties against Covid-19. For this, he was investigated by Brazil’s congress, which recommended that the former president be charged with “crimes against humanity,” among other things, for his actions during the pandemic.
In May, Brazilian police raided Bolsonaro’s home, confiscating his cell phone and arresting one of his closest aides and two of his security cards in connection to the vaccine record investigation.
Brazil’s electoral court ruled that Bolsonaro can’t run for public office until 2030 after he suggested that the country’s voting system was rigged. For that, he has to sit out the 2026 election.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0848 UP .0023
USA/ YEN 150.42 UP 1.27 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2692 DOWN .0035
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3567 UP .0032 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 32 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.17 PTS OR 0.72%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207.64 POINTS OR 1.24%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .41% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 207.64 PTS OR 1.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.17 PTS OR 0.72%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .41%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 263.16 PTS OR 0.66%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2155.25
silver:$24.96
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.56 UP 33 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1993
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2126)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.725…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.311% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.450 DOWN 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.708 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2152.90
SILVER AT 11;30: 2.496
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 13.45 PTS OR 0.17%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 24.39 PTS OR 0.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 40.02 PTS OR 0.49%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 93.30 PTS OR 0.88%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 244.33 PTS OR 0.72%
WTI Oil price 83.34 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 87.50 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.53 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 61/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4400 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.083 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0864 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2722 DOWN .0004 or 4 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0880 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.725%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.91 UP 1.753//YEN DOWN 175 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3565 UP .0030 CDN dollar DOWN 30 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.06
Brent OIL: 87.34
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.298%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.444%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 4.692%
USA dollar index: 103.48 UP 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.34 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.65 DOWN 0 AND 73/100 roubles
GOLD 2157.30 3:30 PM
SILVER: 24.91 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 320.33 PTS OR 0.83%
NASDAQ UP 47.20 PTS OR 0.26%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.92 UP 0.41 PTS OR 2.86%
GLD: $199.80 DOWN .23 OR 0.11%
SLV/ $22.78 DOWN 0,12 OR 0.55%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
NVDA Fails To Impress, Bitcoin Battered, But Bonds & Black Gold Bid Ahead Of Fed
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM
NVDA showed off a new chip and a robot… BoJ did their hawkish thing (but promised to save the world if things went to shit)… US housing data surprised to the upside… and the screens were green… but it wasn’t the love-fest so many hoped as anxiety remains ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting…
NVDA ended the day higher barely…
Stocks overall ended higher into tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, led by The Dow and Small Caps (and a late-day buying spree made things even shinier for Fed Day)…
Black Gold was the day’s big winner again, with WTI surging up near $84, its highest since
Bonds were bid today ahead of The Fed with the short-end outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was clubbed like a baby seal after some shenanigans on the BitMEX overnight, but did find support…
Source: Bloomberg
…which followed the largest net outflow day for BTC ETFs as someone liquidated a boat-load of GBTC…
Source: Bloomberg
The yen weakened notably post-BOJ (USDJPY rallied), roundtripping all of March’s gains, and back at its weakest
Source: Bloomberg
Which was mirrored in the Dollar Index, which fully erased the post-payrolls weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as the world and his pet rabbit anxiously await the words and dots of the The Fed tomorrow, there is a growing trade in “no cuts at all in 2024” bets…
Source: Bloomberg
How will stocks react to any hint of that?
Source: Bloomberg
Well that would get The Fed into action pretty quick… especially in an election year!
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
Housing starts and permits surged in February even though no rate cut odds
(zerohedge)
Housing Starts And Permits Surged In February (Despite Plunging Rate-Cut Odds)
TUESDAY, MAR 19, 2024 – 08:44 AM
Housing Starts and Permits rebounded firmly in February from an ugly January.
Starts soared 10.7% MoM (+8.2% exp) recovering some of the 12.3% MoM decline in January and Permits jumped 1.9% (+0.5% exp) from the upwardly revised -0.3% MoM decline in January…
Source: Bloomberg
That was the biggest monthly jump in Starts since May and biggest permits rise since August.
With weather being blamed for January’s decline, February seems like a return to post-COVID lower norms…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, rental unit housing permits outpaced single-family units
Single-Family: up 1.0% to 1.031MM from 1.021MM
Rentals: up 2.4% to 429K from a four year low of 419K
On the Housing Starts side, single-family units rose more (but both saw signifiant rises):
Single-Family: up 11.6% to 1.129MM, highest since April 2022, from 1.012MM
Rentals: up 8.6% to 377K from 347K
All good news for the meager supply out there. The question is – with rate-cut odds plummeting, has homebuilder confidence, which recently spiked back above 50, got too far over their skis on expectations of The Fed saving the day.
If they build it, will homebuyers come?
TUCKER CARLSON…
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Oh my goodness; they did access the Dominion Voting systems from abroad in Serbia
The election in 2020 must be thrown out
(Silva/Headline USA))
Evidence Of Foreign Nationals Accessing Dominion Voting Machines Leaked To Public
A defamation lawsuit between Dominion Voting Systems and former Overstock.com CEO and Donald Trump supporter Patrick Byrne has descended into chaos after one of Byrne’s attorneys leaked evidence that foreign nationals remotely accessed voting machines used in Michigan in the 2020 elections.
The leaked evidence has been floating around social media for about the last week. The evidence includes emails between Dominion workers about voting machines being accessed remotely from people in Kosovo and elsewhere.
ELECTION INTEGRITY. “Nevena, we are seeing logins from your account in Kosovo, can you confirm this is expected?” Dominion Voting Systems officials in U.S. showed concerns about potential hacking of Serbian staffer account prior to 2020 election. Whoa.
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It wasn’t clear whether the emails were authentic at first, but Dominion apparently confirmed the evidence when it notified the presiding judge about the leak in a filing on Friday. The attorney who leaked the evidence, Stephanie Lambert, has also now been arrested over the matter.
According to Dominion, Byrne gave a trove of confidential discovery material to his attorney, Lambert, who then leaked it to law enforcement and others.
“But Lambert’s misconduct does not end there,” Dominion added. “Not only did Lambert follow her client’s instruction to share Dominion’s documents with an unknown number of individuals, she also filed dozens of them publicly in an unrelated proceeding (to which Dominion is not a party), and they have now been viewed by tens of thousands of users on social media.”
According to Dominion, the evidence leaked doesn’t show any criminality. Dominion blasted “Lambert’s xenophobic conclusion is that any email from non-US-based Dominion personnel is conclusive evidence of criminal activity.”
Far from running from Dominion’s allegations, Byrne and Lambert have both admitted to leaking the discovery materials. They said the materials contain evidence of criminality, meaning that they’re not protected by any protective order.
In a response to Dominion filed Monday, Lambert defended her actions.
“Mr. Byrne came into possession of email communications produced by Dominion during discovery (some written in Serbian and foreign languages) with and from top level Dominion employees directing and tasking foreign nationals to remotely access voting machines utilized in the United States during the November 3, 2020 election,” Lambert said.
“The remote access by these foreign nationals occurred while the states were still counting votes, determining a final tally, and prior to certification of the results. The email communications further established that background checks of the Serbian Dominion employees did not place; the United States had no knowledge or oversight of these Serbian individuals including whether or not they had prior Serbian military experience,” she said.
But despite Lambert’s explanation, she was arrested Monday following a hearing over possible sanctions against her for disseminating confidential emails from Dominion.
The U.S. Marshals office said Lambert was arrested on “local charges.” A Michigan judge earlier this month issued a bench warrant for Lambert after she missed a hearing in her case, in which she’s charged with four felonies for accessing voting machines in a search for evidence of a conspiracy theory against Trump. Lambert had earlier, unsuccessfully, sued to overturn Trump’s loss in Michigan.
Meanwhile, the evidence leaked by Lambert continues to spread.
Sheriff Dar Leaf of Barry County, Michigan, wrote to Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, about the matter on Sunday, offering to provide him with Lambert’s evidence. Leaf is investigating Dominion, and Lambert gave him records from the Dominion/Byrne lawsuit.
“We have two different systems flagging logins from Kosovo, just need to ensure these are really Nevena. If not, I will disable the account.” — Jeremy Holck, VP IT & Security, Denver, Colorado.
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“I am presenting you with this letter and an initial tranche of evidence so that you will review it, and be compelled to investigate this matter and call those responsible for this breach of our Constitution to give testimony concerning these criminal acts and breach of our national security,” Leaf told Jordan, who has yet to publicly comment on the matter.
Headline USA will continue to cover this story as it develops.
Nvidia CEO Overshadows Powell as AI Blots Out SunIt’s the chipmaker, not the Fed, grabbing attention this week, eToro’s Laidler saysJensen Huang, Nvidia Corp.’s co-founder and CEO, will take center stage today (16:00 ET) when he speaks at the company’s much-anticipated developers conference. Think of this week as a split screen of two key events: Nvidia Corp.’s developer conference in California, which kicks off with a speech today from CEO Jensen Huang, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, which concludes with Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Stocks may end up paying much more attention to Nvidia than the Fed. “You’ve got to say it’s Nvidia — no disrespect to Jay Powell,” said Ben Laidler at eToro. “This rally since October has been all about big tech. It’s been a one-legged stool. Nvidia’s led the charge. I don’t think we can afford a slipup by Nvidia here.”https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-18/nvidia-ceo-overshadows-fed-powell-as-ai-story-captivates-wall-street @WSJ: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected to unveil his company’s latest chips on Monday in a sports arena at an event one analyst dubbed the “AI Woodstock”https://t.co/UtaCW8LX1w The usual suspects poured into Nvidia, related trading sardines, and ESHs early on Monday in the latest episode of AI madness. ESHs commenced a rally near 20:00 ET that persisted until Asian trading ended. After a minor retreat ESHs jumped higher at 4:44 ET. The rally ended at 5:05 ET. ESHs flatlined until they soared after the 7 ET US repo market opening. Traders were getting long for: 1) The Monday Rally; 2) The Fed Week Rally; and 3) The above-noted Nvidia event. ESHs eventually hit a peak of 5240.25 at 10:27 ET. ESHs then methodically stair-stepped lower until traders puked them at 15:47 ET. ESHs hit 5210.25 at 15:58 ET. Nvidia hit a peak of 903.88 at 9:47 ET. Wise guys were locked & loaded for the lemmings/dump money. NVDA sank to 871.38 at 13:02 ET. That was a lot of ‘dumping.’ Plus, all those 0DTE call buyers realized that their options would expire at the same time the Nvidia event was scheduled to begin. Their only hope was if rumors or a leak appeared. It didn’t. Nvidia rallied modestly in the early afternoon and then flatlined from 14:35 ET until the NYSE close. California revises 2023 job growth down from 325k to just 50k jobs as deficit to riseThe downward revision resulted in decreased counts for all industries except for health and government; Gov. Newsom proposes $8.5 billion in cuts with expected deficit of $73 billion… Health gained 11,000 and government gained 24,000 in the revised count… https://t.co/JMTNmvEbn2United CEO desperately tries to reassure fliers that airline is safe despite string of ‘unrelated’ incidents all involving Boeing jetshttps://t.co/MhUWtPOcowPositive aspects of previous sessionMost major equity indices rallied while Mag 7 and related trading sardines soared on more AI madnessTesla surged 6.3% Negative aspects of previous sessionGasoline and oil rallied sharply, againThe DJTA declined 81.05 pointsBonds decline moderately Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionIs AI/Nvidida madness the sole dynamic for the bullish case? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up;Last Hour: DownPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5156.83Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5175.60; 5145.47Google helped boost Obama, Clinton presidential runs while censoring Republicans: reportThe Media Research Center published a report alleging 41 instances of “election interference” by the search engine since 2008. The MRC published a report accusing Google of having “utilized its power to help push to electoral victory the most liberal candidates…while targeting their opponents for censorship.”… (Google denies the allegations.) In 2020, Google “targeted” Tulsi Gabbard, the Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii who was running for the party’s nomination for president, by “disabling Gabbard’s Ads account just as she became the most searched candidate following the first Democratic Party primary debate,” the MRC alleged… https://nypost.com/2024/03/18/tech/google-interfered-in-us-elections-41-times-since-2008-report/ @elonmusk: This article understates the magnitude of the problem – Google interferes to help Democrats thousands of times every election season! This is to be expected when their censorship (aka “Trust & Safety”) teams have far left political views.How Did American Capitalism Mutate into American Corporatism?Every major company that once stayed far away from Washington now owns a similar giant palace in or around D.C., and they collect tens of billions in government revenue. Government has now become a major customer, if not the main customer, of the services provided by the large social media and tech companies. They are advertisers but also massive purchasers of the main product too… Today government is a main purchaser of tech services and is a top driver of the AI boom too. It’s one of the best-kept secrets in American public life, hardly talked about at all by mainstream media. Most people still think of tech companies as free-enterprise rebels. It’s not true… There is no real distinction between the interests of the FDA/CDC and large pharmaceutical companies. They are one and the same…No longer primarily interested in serving the general public, enterprise turns its attention to serving its powerful masters in the halls of the state, gradually weaving close relationships and forming a ruling class that becomes a conspiracy against the public… Corporatism is a specific thing, not capitalism and not socialism but a system of private property ownership with cartelized industry that primarily serves the state…https://brownstone.org/articles/how-did-american-capitalism-mutate-into-american-corporatism/Nvidia: TSMC, Synopsys to Use Nvidia Computational Lithography – BBG 16:21 ETNvidia: Introduced New Generative AI Algorithms that Enhance cuLitho, a Library for GPU-Accelerated Computational Lithography – DJ 16:23 ETNvidia CEO Introduces ‘Very Big’ GPU Called Blackwell – BBG 16:28 ETNvidia Announces New Switches Optimized for Trillion-Parameter GPU Computing and AI Structure – DJ 16:31 ET. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/nvidia-announces-gb200-blackwell-ai-chip-launching-later-this-year.html After the Nvidia announcements, NVDA (884.55 close) rallied to 894.50; fell to 873.70 and then vacillated in a tight range until it broke down at18:35 ET. @zerohedge: All those who spent tens of billions on A100 and H100s capex are now looking at tens of billions in obsolete inventory. Welcome to the AI cadence cycle.Today – Traders realize that the carefree bullish window is wide open today; but it could slam shut tomorrow if the FOMC and/or Powell “do the right thing.” So, the usual suspects will buy stuff and try to manipulate their holdings higher. However, Nvidia’s post-NYSE trading decline, after its CEO made the major announcements, suggests beaucoup traders are trapped on the long side. Finally, the market expects the BoJ to announce the end of ZIRP and possibly Yield Curve Control. ESUs are -7.75; NQHs are -52.00 on NVDA disappointment; and USHs are +4/32 at 20:305ET. Expected Economic Data: Feb Building Permits 11.5m, Housing Starts 1.43m S&P Index 50-day MA: 4972; 100-day MA: 4752; 150-day MA: 4628; 200-day MA: 4581DJIA 50-day MA: 38,419; 100-day MA: 36,986; 150-day MA: 36,036, 200-day MA: 35,652(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5149.42) – Trender BBG trading model and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4455.17 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 4901.55 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender ispositive; MACD is negative – a close below 5069.80 triggers a sell signalHourly: Trender andMACD arepositive – a close below 5108.17 triggers a sell signal @seanmdav: This weekend was a bloodbath for corrupt corporate media’s reputation. @elonmusk: The mainstream view of the Dem party will be antisemitic within 5 to 10 years. It is an inevitable outcome of the weak-makes-right moral foundation. For most of history (and still most of the world) it was might-makes-right. This has overcorrected to weak-makes-right. Morality should be considered in the absolute, as both the strong and the weak are capable of right and wrong. “For the average person, all problems date to World War II; for the more informed, to World War I; for the genuine historian, to the French Revolution.” — Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddih GOP Gov. @GregAbbott_TX: SCOTUS temporarily halted enforcement of SB 4 but Texas is still using its authority to arrest illegal immigrants for criminal trespass and other violations of law. We continue building the wall, use NG to erect razor wire barriers to repel migrants & buoys remain in river. @greg_price11: Andrew Jackson once reacted to a Supreme Court loss by saying “they’ve made their decision. Now let them come enforce it.” That’s what Texas should say to the feds. @bennyjohnson: Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is concerned that the First Amendment is “hamstringing the Government” when it comes to censoring speech on social media…https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1769781660919160922 Biden on Monday said Ketanji Brown Jackson is the smartest Supreme Court Justice, even though she doesn’t know or understand that the primary purpose of the 1st Amendment, and the reason that it was written, is to “hamstring Government” when it wants to censor Americans!@TonyClimate: Over the last 700,000 years earth saw regular large swings in temperature, with CO2 varying by a relatively small amount. It should be obvious to anyone who can think rationally that something other than CO2 is driving the temperature. https://t.co/EK5dV0mI0tHarvard Tramples the Truth – Martin KulldorffI am no longer a professor of medicine at Harvard. The Harvard motto is Veritas, Latin for truth. But, as I discovered, truth can get you fired. This is my story—a story of a Harvard biostatistician and infectious-disease epidemiologist, clinging to the truth as the world lost its way during the Covid pandemic… I supported the Swedish approach in op-eds published in my native Sweden, but despite being a Harvard professor, I was unable to publish my thoughts in American media. My attempts to disseminate the Swedish school report on Twitter (now X) put me on the platform’s Trends Blacklist… Together with Gupta and Jay Bhattacharya at Stanford, I wrote the Great Barrington Declaration, arguing for age-based focused protection instead of universal lockdowns, with specific suggestions for how better to protect the elderly, while letting children and young adults live close to normal lives…Two Harvard colleagues tried to arrange a debate between me and opposing Harvard faculty, but just as with Stanford, there were no takers… Every honest person knows that new drugs and vaccines come with potential risks that are unknown when approved. This was a risk worth taking for older people at high risk of Covid mortality—but not for children, who have a minuscule risk for Covid mortality, nor for those who already had infection-acquired immunity… At the behest of the U.S. government, Twitter censored my tweet for contravening CDC policy. Having also been censored by LinkedIn, Facebook, and YouTube, I could not freely communicate as a scientist…The beauty of our immune system is that those who recover from an infection are protected if and when they are re-exposed. This has been known since the Athenian Plague of 430 BC—but it is no longer known at Harvard. Three prominent Harvard faculty coauthored the now infamous “consensus” memorandum in The Lancet, questioning the existence of Covid-acquired immunity. By continuing to mandate the vaccine for students with a prior Covid infection, Harvard is de facto denying 2,500 years of science… Science cannot survive in a society that does not value truth and strive to discover it…https://www.city-journal.org/article/harvard-tramples-the-truth?s=02 @TheBabylonBee: Unhinged Trump Threatens More Violence By Promising To Trigger A ‘Landslide’ On Election Day https://buff.ly/3vg2JOuBarack Obama visits Downing Street for surprise meeting in No 10“President Obama’s team made contact and obviously the prime minister was very happy to to meet with him and discuss the work of the Obama Foundation.” Mr. Obama left No 10 after around an hour following a meeting with Mr Sunak.https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/barack-obama-rishi-sunak-downing-street-b2514470.html
harveyorganblog.com 
