APRIL 30/FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY CONTRACT//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $53.75 TO $2292.40/SILVER WAS DOWN 99 CENTS TO $26.45//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $19.45 TO $936.40 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $957.70 TO $XXX//GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM PETER SCHIFF AND EGON VON GREYERZ//CHINA CONTINUES TO PURCHASE MOUNTAINS OF GOLD//GERMAN PROTESTERS DEMAND AN ISLAMIC STATE IN GERMANY//ISRAEL AWAITS HAMAS DECISION RE HOSTAGE RELEASE//HOUTHIS FIRE ON 4 SHIPS IN RED SEA //COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURIES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS// USA DATA: CHICAGO PMI SERVICE DATA SCREAMS OF STAGFLATION//VICTOR DAVIS HANSON//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 318 190 H BMO CAPITAL 105 323 C HSBC 640 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 52 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 198 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14
DLV615-T CME CLEARING BUSINESS DATE: 04/29/2024 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/29/2024 PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:46:04 661 C JP MORGAN 410 230 690 C ABN AMRO 16 737 C ADVANTAGE 90 880 C CITIGROUP 796 905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 1,435 1,435
JPMorgan stopped 0/1439
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 1439 NOTICES FOR 143,900 OZ or 4,4758 TONNES
total notices so far: 1439 contracts for 143,900 Oz (4,4758 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 2514NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 12,570,000OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2514 for 12.570 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $53.75
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 832.19 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 832.19 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER DOWN $.99 AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OT ,457 MILLION OZ
// INVENTORY INCREASES T0 429.174MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 429,174MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 645 CONTRACTS TO 169,739 AND STILL RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, DESPITE THE RAID AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0,13 N SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL PRICE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 374 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 374 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUNUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.13, AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2012 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.13
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1367 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE)
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 28.130 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 374 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A STRONG 177CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 22DAYS, total 32,354 contracts: OR 161.770 MILLION OZ (1470CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 194.124 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 645 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1367 IISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 28.130 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE F
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 28.130 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2012 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 374 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (733 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 2514 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 12.570 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3535 OI CONTRACTS TO 524,852 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 764 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (4299 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $10.55 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHACK GOLD’S PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
NEW STANDING 4.684TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $10.55 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7971 OI CONTRACTS (24.793 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 4436 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 524,852
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7971 CONTRACTS WITH 3535 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4436 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7971 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2729 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4436 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI 3535 TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7971 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684TONNES
//NEW STANDING /MAY 4.684TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2729CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 85,857CONTRACTS OR 8,585,700OZ OR 267.05 TONNES IN 22TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3902 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 22TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 229.60 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 267.05 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 645 CONTRACTS OI TO 169,739 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1367 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 1367 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1600 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 645 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1367 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2012 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.06MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
REPORT THIS AD
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.22 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 16.12 PTS OR 0.09% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 420.90 PT OR 1.24% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2410//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2493 Oil DOWN TO 83.13dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 87.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3535 CONTRACTS TO 524,852 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE 4436 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE4936& ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:4036 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7971 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4436 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3535 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $10.55 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 2087 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON MONDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (4.684TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
REPORT THIS AD
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2023 4.684 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $10.55 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF7971 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE 0F $10.55
WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 24.793 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
NEW STANDING: 50.650ONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $10.55
WE HAD REMOVED 301 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7971 CONTRACTS OR 797,100(24.793 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1439notices 143,900 0oz 4.4758 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposits:
i) Into ASAHI: 32,212.140 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,212.140oz
we have 2 customer deposits:
i)Into ASAHI 297,801
II) Into Brinks 1806.43 oz
total deposit 2104.23 oz
total customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of HSBC 3182,949 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 346.567 oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 1506contracts having LOST 171 contracts.
Thus be definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this non active delivery month of May is as follows:
1596 notices x 100 oz per notice = 150,600oz or 4.684tonnes.
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 63 CONTRACTS UP TO 405,354CONTRACTS.
We had 1439 contracts filed for today representing 143,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1439 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1439 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1506CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1439x 100 oz per contract( equals 150,600 OZ OR 4.684 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1439 x 100 oz + (1506 )OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (1439 x 100 oz which equals 150,600 oz (4.684TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 4.684 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,653,319.791OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,531,878.894 (234.273 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,214,440.900OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,949,358 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)
185.05 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 30
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
12,130.320oz
CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
611,575.900 OZ ASAHI
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
741,644.121 oz
Brinks Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
2514CONTRACT(S) (12.570 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3112 contracts (15,.560 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2514 Contracts (12,570,000oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into ASAHI: 611,575.900 oz
total dealer deposit :611,575.900 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 601,257.681 oz
ii) Into Delaware 140,386,440 oz
total customer deposits 741,644.121oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,598million oz/294.609million or 44.06%
adjustment: 4 all customer to dealer
ASAHI 2,049.700
Brinks 4,117,662.460 oz
CNT 1,612,505.780 0z
HSBC: 4959,974,280 oz
total 10.692 million oz
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) CNT 12,130.320
total withdrawal 12,130.320 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.660 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 294.609million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 35626 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 5075 CONTRACT(S).
.
Thus by definition the initial amount of silver standing for delivery in this active delivery month of May is as follows:
5626 notices x 5,000 oz per notice = 28.130 million oz
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 492 CONTRACTS RISING TO 1541
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 5058 CONTRACTS UP TO 137,364
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2514for 12.570 million oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 77,929 very strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2514 5,000 oz = 12,570,000oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (5626and the number of notices served upon today 2514x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 2514notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(5626number of notices served upon today (2514x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 28.130 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 28.130 million oz.
There are 62.660million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNE
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
REPORT
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
REPORT THIS AD
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 832.19TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 30WITH SILVER DOWN $0.99 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
In this week’s episode, Peter covers the dismal figures released Thursday and Friday, horrible tax policies, and the appalling lack of transparency in our government.
Peter has been predicting stagflation for a while, and now that it’s here, he sees mining stocks as an opportunity:
“That’s one of the reasons I’m so over-weighted in mining stocks, apart from the valuation, is if there is stagflation, you don’t have a better economic environment. Because you have inflation that the Fed can’t fight, because you have a weak economy. So the Fed is reluctant to raise rates, because it’ll weaken the economy further. … Plus, the weak economy widens the budget deficits. And that means a weaker dollar, more money printing, more inflation. So the best possible economic scenario for gold stocks is stagflation, which of course is the worst economic scenario for the economy.”
High consumer spending is especially alarming, considering these figures are probably conservative and underestimate the true extent of inflation in the economy:
“Why are people spending more? Well, because things cost more. That’s why they’re spending more. They’re not buying more. And even though these numbers are supposed to be adjusted for inflation, they’re not because you know the government numbers don’t accurately capture how much inflation there actually is.”
The savings rate also dipped from last month, dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%. Saving is a great economic indicator, as Peter explains:
“This is the lowest savings rate I think in a couple of years. So this is not good news— that Americans are having to deplete their savings. This is bad news. When the economy is good, you save more. That’s when you add to your rainy day fund. You have to tap into it when times are tough and you’re struggling. And that’s exactly what Americans are doing. They’re struggling, and they’re tapping into their savings in order to do it.”
Instead of addressing the Fed’s disastrous monetary policy, the Biden administration is trying to raise taxes on wealthy Americans, which means raising taxes on everyone eventually:
“They’re promising just to tax the rich, right? The millionaires and billionaires. Of course, that’s what they always say. That’s what they said in 1916 when they got the income tax or 16th amendment. It was just to tax Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt. They were going to lower taxes on the middle class, right? If we just allow this 4% tiny little tax, that was the maximum bracket. … Next thing you knew that 4% rate was like 70, 80%. And then by the Second World War, they had the withholding tax and pretty much everybody was paying the income tax.”
“It would be very destructive to the economy, to wealth creation, to production, to employment. So it would be a complete economic disaster as well as being unconstitutional. So I mean, the good news is these are just talking points for the election. So it’s not going to actually happen. Now, it might happen if Biden won the election and the Democrats got the House and the Senate. Then it actually might happen. But as of now, it just shows you where they stand, and they’re throwing red meat to their base, which is basically socialist.”
At the end of this episode, Peter updates us on his FOIA request for the closing of his bank in Puerto Rico. After the government essentially refused to disclose all relevant information for his case, Peter explains how corrupt and shady this whole affair is:
“I have a right to see this information, but they don’t want me to see it. I think because it reveals the commission of a crime. And so, you know, the IRS can commit a crime and then they can cover it up. Because they’re the government, right? They prosecute the citizens for committing crimes, but then they get away with murder. They commit crimes all they want because they’re the cops, right? And they make the rules.”
Be sure to check out Peter’s recent interview with Anthony Crudele, in which they discuss the traditional value of gold, Bitcoin’s role in the economy, and the perpetual inflation that defines today’s economy.
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
Von Greyerz: The Real Move In Gold & Silver Is Yet To Start
Gold Depositories, Gold Funds and Gold ETFs have lost just under 1,400 tonnes of their gold holdings in the last 2 years since May 2022.
But not only gold funds are seeing weak buying but also mints such as the Perth Mint and the US Mint with its coin sales down 96% year on year.
Clearly gold knows something that the market hasn’t discovered yet.
RATES MUCH HIGHER
For the last few years I have been clear that there will be no lasting interest rate cuts.
As the chart shows below, the 40 year down trend in US rates bottomed in 2020 and since then rates are in a secular uptrend.
I have discussed this in many articles as well as in for example this interview from 2022 when I stated that rates will exceed 10% and potentially much higher in the coming inflationary environment, fuelled by escalating deficits and debt explosion.
“But the Fed will keep rates down” I hear all the experts call out!
Finally the “experts” are changing their mind and believe that cuts will no longer happen.
No central bank can control interest rates when its government recklessly issues unlimited debt and the only buyer is the central bank itself.
PONZI SCHEME WORTHY OF A BANANA REPUBLIC
This is a Ponzi scheme only worthy of a Banana Republic. And this is where the US is heading.
So strongly rising long rates will pull short rates up.
And that’s when the fun panic starts.
As Niall Ferguson stated in a recent article:
“Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defence will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire”.
So based on the CBO (Congressional Budget Office), the US will spend more on interest than defence already at the end of 2024 as this chart shows:
But as often is the case, the CBO prefers not to tell uncomfortable truths.
The CBO forecasts interest costs to reach $1.6 trillion by 2034. But if we extrapolate the trends of the deficit and apply current interest rate, the annualised interest cost will reach $1.6 trillion at the end of 2024 rather than in 2034.
Just look at the steepness of the interest cost curve above. It is clearly EXPONENTIAL.
Total Federal debt was below $1 trillion in 1980. Now, interest on the debt is $1.6 trillion.
Debt today $35 trillion rising to $100 trillion by 2034.
The same with the US Federal Debt. Extrapolating the trend since 1980, the debt will be $100 trillion by 2036 and that is probably conservative.
With the interest trend up as explained above, a 10% rate in 2036 or before is not unrealistic. Remember rates back in the 1970s and early 1980s were well above 10% with a much lower debt and deficit.
US BONDS – BUY THEM AT YOUR PERIL
Let us analyse the current and future of a US treasury debt (and most sovereign debt):
Issuance will accelerate exponentially
It will never be repaid. At best only deferred or more probably defaulted on
The value of the currency will fall precipitously
HYPERINFLATION COMING
So where are we heading?
Most probably we are facing an inflationary period leading to probable hyperinflation
With global debt already up over 4x this century from $80 trillion to $350 trillion. Add to that a Derivative mountain of over $2 quadrillion plus unfunded liabilities and the total will exceed $3 quadrillion.
As central banks frenetically try to save the financial system, most of the 3 quadrillion will become debt as counterparties fail and banks will need to be saved with unlimited money printing.
But neither a bank nor a sovereign state can be saved by issuing worthless pieces of paper or digital money.
In March 2023, four US banks collapsed within a matter of days. And soon thereafter Credit Suisse was in trouble and had to be rescued.
The problems in the banking system have just started. Falling bond prices and collapsing values of property loans are just the beginning.
This week Republic First Bancorp had to be saved.
Just look at US banks’ unrealised losses on their bond portfolios in the graph below.
Unrealised losses on bonds held to maturity are $400 billion.
And losses on bonds available for sale are $250 billion. So the US banking system is sitting on identified losses of $650 billion just on their bond portfolios. As interest rates go up, these losses will increase.
Add to that, losses on loans against collapsing commercial property values and much more.
EXPONENTIAL MOVES
So we will see debt grow exponentially as it has already started to do. Exponential moves start gradually and then suddenly whether we talk about debt, inflation or population growth.
The stadium analogy below shows how it all develops:
It takes 50 minutes to fill a stadium with water, starting with one drop and doubling every minute – 1, 2, 4, 8 drops etc. After 45 minutes the stadium is only 7% full and the last 5 minutes it goes form 7% to 100%.
THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM
So the world is most probably now in the last 5 minutes of our current financial system.
The coming final phase is likely to go very fast as all exponential moves do, just like in the Weimar Republic in 1923. In January 1923 one ounce of gold cost 372,000 marks and at the end of November in 1923 the price was 87 trillion marks!
The consequences of a collapse of the financial system and the global economy, especially in the West can take many decades to recover from. It will involve a debt and asset implosion plus a massive contraction of the economy and trade.
The East and South and especially the countries with major commodity reserves will recover much faster. Russia for example has $85 trillion in commodity reserves, the biggest in the world.
As US issuance of treasuries accelerate, the potential buyers will decline until there is only one bidder which is the Fed.
Even today no sane sovereign state would buy US treasuries. Actually no sane investor would buy US treasuries.
Here we have an already insolvent debtor that has no means of repaying his debt except for issuing more of the same rubbish which in future would only be good for toilet paper. But electronic paper is not even good for that.
This is a sign in a Zimbabwe toilet:
Let us analyse the current and future of a US treasury debt (and most sovereign debt):
Issuance will accelerate exponentially
It will never be repaid. At best only deferred or more probably defaulted on
The value of the currency will fall precipitously
That’s all there is to it. Thus anyone who buys US treasuries or other sovereign bonds has a 99.9% guarantee of not getting his money back.
So Bonds are no longer an asset of value but just a liability for the borrower that will or can not be repaid.
What about stocks or corporate bonds. Many companies won’t survive or experience a major decline in the stock price together with major cash flow pressures.
As I have discussed in many articles, we are entering the era of commodities and especially precious metals.
The coming era is not for speculation but for trying to keep as much of what you have as possible. For the investor who doesn’t protect himself, there will be a wealth destruction of an unprecedented magnitude.
There will no longer be a question what return you can get on your investment.
Instead it is a matter of losing as little as possible.
Holding stocks, bonds or property – all the bubble assets – are likely to lead to massive wealth erosion as we go into the “Everything Collapse”.
THE NEW ERA OF GOLD AND SILVER
For soon 25 years I have been urging investors to hold gold to preserve their wealth. Since the beginning of this century gold has outperformed most asset classes.
Between 2000 and today, the S&P, including reinvested dividends, has returned 7.7% per annum whilst gold has returned 9.2% per year or 8X.
In the next few years, all the factors discussed in this article will lead to major gains in the precious metals and falls in most conventional assets.
There are many other positive factors for gold.
As the chart below shows, the West has reduced its gold reserves since the late 1960s, whilst the East is growing its gold reserves strongly. And we have just seen the beginning of this trend.
The US and EU sanctioning of Russia and the freezing/confiscation of the Russian assets in foreign banks are very beneficial for gold.
No sovereign states will hold their reserves in US dollars any more. Instead we will see central bank reserves move to gold. That shift has already started and is one of the reasons for gold’s rise.
In addition, gradually the BRICS countries are moving away from the dollar to trading in their local currencies. For commodity rich countries, gold will be an important part of their trading.
Thus there are major forces behind the gold move which has just started and will reach further both in price and time than anyone can imagine.
HOW TO OWN GOLD
But remember for investors, holding gold is for financial survival and protection of assets.
Therefore gold must be held in physical form outside the banking system with direct access for the investor.
Also gold must be held in safe jurisdictions with a long history of rule of law and stable government.
The cost of storing gold should not be the primary consideration for choosing a custodian. When you buy life insurance you mustn’t buy the cheapest but the best.
First consideration must be the owners and management. What is their reputation, background and previous history.
Thereafter secure servers, security, liquidity, location and insurance are very important.
Also, high level of personal service is paramount. Many vaults fail in this area.
Preferably gold should not be held in the country where you are resident, especially not in the US with its fragile financial system.
Neither gold nor silver has started the real move yet. Any major correction is likely to come from much higher levels.
Gold and silver are in a hurry so it is not too late to jump on the gold wagon.
Since the October 2023 gold low of just over $1,600 gold is up but is anyone buying?
Well no, certainly none of the normal playe
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
Chinese public is buying more than twice as much gold as the nation mines
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-04-29 13:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
China’s consumers seek security in gold, ‘the only safe asset’
By Mia Nulimalmaiti South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Monday, April 29, 2024
Chinese consumers are increasing their appetite for gold, seeking to protect their assets amid a volatile stock market, a depreciating yuan, and property doldrums, which analysts said would continue to boost international gold prices coupled with geopolitical uncertainties.
Consumers in China bought 308.9 tonnes (10.9 million ounces) of gold in the first quarter, representing a 5.9 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2023, according to data released by the China Gold Association on Friday
Purchases of gold bars and coins, which largely reflect investment and hedging demand, surged by 26.8% year on year to 106.3 tonnes, while gold jewellery sales declined by 3% from a year earlier to 183.9 tonnes.
But China’s domestic gold production rose by 21.2% to only 139.184 tonnes in the first three months of the year, with 53.2 tonnes produced with imported ores or materials, indicating an overreliance on overseas suppliers. …
This year we will adjust investment proportions by reducing assets that could be affected by war and increasing investments in alternative assets such as gold and oil, which help to mitigate risk,” he said.
Gold and oil account for about 5% of the fund’s portfolio. …
Trump allies draw plans to reduce Fed’s independence
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-04-27 13:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary The Wall Street Journal Friday, April 26, 2024
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve’s independence if the former president wins a second term, in the midst of a deepening divide among his advisers over how aggressively to challenge the central bank’s authority.
Former Trump administration officials and other supporters of the presumptive Republican nominee have in recent months discussed a range of proposals, from incremental policy changes to a long-shot assertion that the president himself should play a role in setting interest rates
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2410
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2493
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.22 PTS OR 0.28%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 16.12PTS OR 0.09%
2. Nikkei closed UP 420.90 PTS OR 1.24%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.84 EURO RISES TO 1.0723 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.869 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.99JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UPTO +2.5495/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.832 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.315
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWNTO 3.420
3j Gold at $2310.30 //Silver at: 26.45 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 32/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.32/
3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.99/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.869% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9126 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9786 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.618 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.736 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.970 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.38…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.3490 UP 6 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Dip On Last Day Of April, First Down Month Of 2024
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 08:15 AM
US equity futures dropped, and European markets were mixed on the last day of the month amid concerns the Fed may stick to its hawkish messaging at its meeting on Wednesday. As of 7:40am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were down 0.1% while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.4%, while Asian stocks gained on Japan’s return from holiday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed and 10-year Treasury yields were steady at 4.62%. The yen resumed its decline even as a Bloomberg analysis found that Japan almost certainly conducted its first currency intervention since 2022 to prop up the yen on Monday. Commodities were mixed with metals down and oil rebounding from its biggest drop in almost two weeks amid discussions on a possible cease-fire in the Middle East. Macro data today includes Q1 employment cost index, Case Shiller home prices, April MNI Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and Dallas Fed services activity. Bitcoin tumbled after activity on Hong Kong’s new crypto ETFs came in far below expectations.
In premarket trading, HSBC Holdings climbed more than 3% after solid earnings and the surprise departure of CEO Noel Quinn, which some analysts said could pave the way for the next stage in the bank’s growth plans. Chegg shares fell 13% after the online educational platform company forecast total net revenue for the second quarter that missed the average estimate. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Blend Labs shares jump 20% after it reported a $150 million investment by Haveli Investments in the form of convertible preferred stock with a zero percent coupon.
Coursera’s shares drop 14%, putting them on track for a one-year low, after the online educational firm cut full-year revenue and adjusted-Ebitda forecasts, prompting analysts to lower their price targets on the stock.
NXP Semiconductors shares rose 3.6% after the chipmaker reported better-than-expected 1Q adjusted earnings per share and forecast 2Q adjusted EPS and revenue largely above average analyst expectations.
Paramount Global analysts note that investors are more focused on the Skydance deal rather than results this quarter. The media company replaced CEO Bob Bakish as the board negotiates a possible change in control of the company. Shares in the company fell about 0.4% in premarket trading.
US stocks are on the edge of closing out the first monthly retreat of 2024, with the S&P 500 down 2.6% in April. Amazon.com, McDonald’s and Coca-Cola are due to report later today, but all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell who will likely bolster expectations interest rates will stay higher for longer after Wednesday’s rates announcement.
“Sentiment is positive but reserved,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of investment products at Swissquote. “There has been plenty of hype around rates, earnings and the macro environment — now markets want to see the results.”
Meanwhile, as we reported first last night, Goldman’s desk calculated that momentum traders are modeled to buy equities over the next week, regardless of market direction. Commodity trading advisers — funds that use systematic strategies to trade futures contracts — are exposed to about $106 billion in long positions after the drawdown in April, Cullen Morgan, an equity derivatives and flows specialist at the bank, wrote in a note. That’s set to support a bounce in global equities after a rough month.
European stocks also fall, led by declines in autos as Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz shares fall post-earnings which offset better-than-expected European economic data. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Logitech shares soar as much as 10%, the most in six months, after the Swiss maker of computer accessories reported better-than-expected FY25 sales guidance
Cargotec jumps as much as 17% to a fresh high after the Finnish crane and cargo-handling equipment firm reports “record” first-quarter earnings boosted by its Marine division
HSBC shares advanced as much as 3.6% after the lender announced a larger buyback than expected and reported earnings that analysts saw as solid
OMV shares jump as much as 5.3%, largest intraday rise since November, after Austrian refiner reported 1Q clean CCS operating profit beat
Clariant shares gain as much as 4.8%, to the highest level in more than six months after the Swiss specialty chemicals firm’s margins beat consensus despite some challenges
Rotork shares rise 3.9% after the valve manufacturer reported a solid start to the year. Sales and orders both grew, while its book-to-bill ratio also improved
European automakers shares fall as 1Q numbers from Stellantis, Volkswagen and Mercedes disappointed the market, making the SXAP auto index the worst performing subsector
Straumann shares drop as much as 10%, the most since Oct. 26, after a soft performance in North America overshadowed the Swiss dental equipment company’s 1Q revenue beat
SES depositary receipts drop as much as 12% after the satellite firm agreed to buy Intelsat for $3.1 billion, in a deal to be funded by cash on hand and new debt
Air France-KLM falls as much as 4.7% after carrier reports a wider operating loss than expected in the first quarter. Bernstein says one-off costs weighed on profitability
Santander shares drop as much as 2.9% after forecast-beating net interest income and fees in the first quarter were offset by a cost surge at the Spanish lender
Adidas shares fell as much as 1.6% as 1Q results broadly confirmed a recent pre-release, and the sportswear maker’s guidance was seen by some as conservative
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day, led by a rally in Japanese shares as the yen stabilized following wild swings in the previous session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, led by industrial shares such as Hitachi and Toyota Motor. Japan’s Topix Index jumped more than 2% as the market reopened from a holiday. Traders remain on alert for sharp yen moves after the currency’s rebound from a 34-year low sparked speculation of intervention.
“While we remain constructive on the Japan equity market over the medium term, we also believe that near-term FX movement is likely to see some profit taking from investors in the broad Japanese equity market,” said Ricky Tang, head of client portfolio management at Value Partners Group.
In FX, the dollar gained against all its major peers on expectation of a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The euro outperformed and the region’s government bonds fell after data showed the largest economies of the bloc were stronger than expected in the first quarter. The yen weakens towards 157 against the dollar. The Aussie underperforms, falling 0.5% after retail sales missed estimates.
In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, paring a portion of Monday’s gains, amid steeper declines for bunds after first estimate of 1Q euro-zone growth rate topped estimates. US yields cheaper by 0.5bp to 1.5bp across the curve with losses led by intermediates, steepening 2s10s spread by 1bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.63% with bunds underperforming by 1.5bp in the sector. Also during London morning, an array of regional inflation readings lifted intermediate German yields by ~3bp. Bunds are in the red, with German 10-year yields rising 2bps to 2.55%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%.
In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.2% to trade near $82.80. Spot gold falls 0.8%.
Looking at today’s calendar, we have the 1Q employment cost index (8:30am), February FHFA house price index, S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, 3 minutes earlier for subscribers), consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed members are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of May 1 policy announcement.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 5,139.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 507.25
MXAP up 0.7% to 174.73
MXAPJ little changed at 540.41
Nikkei up 1.2% to 38,405.66
Topix up 2.1% to 2,743.17
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,763.03
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,104.82
Sensex up 0.5% to 75,063.11
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,664.08
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,692.06
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.54%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0700
Brent Futures little changed at $88.47/bbl
Gold spot down 0.9% to $2,314.21
US Dollar Index up 0.31% to 105.90
Top Overnight News
China’s NBS PMIs for April are mixed, with manufacturing about inline at 50.4 (vs. the Street 50.3 and down from 50.8 in Mar) while non-manufacturing fell short at 51.2 (vs. the Street 52.3 and down from 53 in Mar). China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4, slightly ahead of the Street’s 51 forecast. WSJ
China’s ruling Communist Party vowed to explore new measures to tackle a protracted housing crisis, which remains the biggest drag on the nation’s economy, and hinted at possible rate cuts ahead. BBG
HSBC’s chief executive Noel Quinn is to retire unexpectedly after five years, setting off a hunt for a successor at the UK-based bank. Quinn, 62, has overhauled the lender since taking charge in 2019, selling off parts of its global operations to increase its focus on Asia, where it makes the lion’s share of its profits. FT
BOJ accounts suggest Japan probably intervened in the FX market yesterday, buying around 5.5 trillion yen. Officials have declined to say whether they stepped in. BBG
The chief executive of Ericsson said a focus on regulation was “driving Europe to irrelevance” as he warned that the region’s competitiveness was being undermined and called for changes to antitrust policy. FT
EU’s Apr CPI was inline with the Street on a headline basis at +2.4% (unchanged vs. Mar) and a bit firmer on core (+2.7% vs. the Street +2.6% and vs. +2.9% in Mar). BBG
ECB’s Knot says it is “realistic” to anticipate a cut in June and expresses confidence in inflation coming back to 2%, although he doesn’t envision rates returning to their pandemic/pre-pandemic lows. Nikkei
Tensions grow between Trump and Lake in Arizona race for Senate. The former president fears that GOP candidate Kari Lake might not win and will drag down his own prospects in the battleground state. WaPo
Apple has poached dozens of artificial intelligence experts from Google and has created a secretive European laboratory in Zurich, as the tech giant builds a team to battle rivals in developing new AI models and products. FT
Caterpillar Caterpillar announced a voluntary delisting from Euronext Paris and the Six Swiss Exchange; cites low trading volumes and high administrative costs. CAT will solely trade on NYSE thereafter. (Newswires)
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk is reportedly planning more layoffs as two senior executives depart, while roughly 500 people will be laid off in supercharger group, according to The Information. (The Information)
WSJ’s Timiraos article “Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer” & “Firmer price pressures could lead longer-term rates to rise as investors continue paring back expectations of cuts”
Earnings
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Shares climb 3.4% pre-market on top- and bottom-line beats, and guidance. Q1 adj. EPS 3.24 (exp. 3.16), Q1 revenue USD 3.13bln (exp. 3.13bln). Q1 gross margin 58.2% (exp. 58%), Q1 operating margin 34.5% (exp. 34%). Auto revenue -1% Y/Y, Industrial/IoT +14%, Mobile +34%, Communications Infrastructure -25% Y/Y. Exec said early views into H2 underpin a cautious optimism. Sees Q2 revenue of 3.125bln (exp. 3.11bln), Q2 EPS of 3.20 (exp. 3.12).
Paramount Global (PARA) Q1 Adj. EPS 0.62 (exp. 0.36), Q1 revenue USD 7.69bln (exp. 7.73bln); Q1 Paramount+ net additions +3.7mln (exp. +2.2mln); Q1 EBITDA USD 0.987bln (exp. 0.756bln), Q1 FCF USD 209mln (exp. -62mln). President and CEO Bob Bakish stepped down, as many press reports suggested he would do over the weekend. Establishes a management committee; George Cheeks, Chris McCarthy, and Brian Robbins will work with CFO Naveen Chopra to accelerate growth, streamline operations, and optimise streaming strategy; Chair Shari Redstone (of National Amusements) has expressed confidence in their leadership.
Adidas (ADS GY) Q1 (EUR): Revenue 5.45bln (exp. 5.46bln, prev. 5.27bln Y/Y). Currency-neutral sales +8% driven by growth in all regions except in North America, where revenue fell by 4% to 1.12bln. Europe: +14%.
Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) Q1 (EUR): Revenue 41.7bln (exp. 43.92bln), -12% Y/Y due to “volume, mix and foreign exchange headwinds, partly offset by firm net pricing”.
HSBC (5 HK/ HSBA LN) Q1 (USD): Revenue 20.75bln (exp. 21.03bln). Pretax profit 12.65bln (exp. 12.61bln). CET1 ratio 15.2% (exp. 15.4%). CEO Quinn is unexpectedly retiring.
A more detailed look at markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher but with gains capped heading into month-end amid a slew of data and earnings. ASX 200 was led by strength in the mining sector but with upside limited after a surprise contraction in Retail Sales. Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from the long weekend and as participants digested a slew of earnings releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied in which the former made another brief foray into bull market territory, while the mainland lagged ahead of the Labour Day holidays and as participants reflected on mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official NBS Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs topped forecasts but Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed despite remaining in expansion territory.
Top Asian News
PBoC injected CNY 440bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80%.
PBoC reportedly wants to halt the bond-buying spree and not join in on it, with the central bank concerned about bond market bubbles and economic gloom, according to Bloomberg.
Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on FX intervention and noted that a weak yen has positive and negative impacts, while he added the currency has a bigger impact on import prices now and that excessive FX moves could impact daily lives. Kanda said they need to take appropriate actions on FX and reiterated they are ready to take action 24 hours a day and will continue taking appropriate actions when needed.
BoJ keep monthly bond purchases plan for May unchanged from April
China’s Communist Party Central Committee is to hold a 3rd plenum during July, via State Media; Politburo undertook a meeting on Tuesday.
Former Japanese top FX diplomat Furusawa says it is highly likely the Japanese government intervened on Monday to prop up the JPY
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) are mixed, with a slight negative bias. Indices initially opened around flat, though tilted lower as the morning progressed, with little driving the shift in sentiment. European sectors hold little bias, with the breadth of the market fairly narrow, with the exception of Autos, dragged down by poor results from Mercedes (-3.4%), Stellantis (-2.4%) and Volkswagen (-2.1%). Real Estate tops the pile, propped up by post-earning gains in Vonovia (+5.5%). US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are modestly softer, in fitting with the broader price action seen in European trade. Earnings include: McDonald’s, AMD, Amazon and Starbucks.
Top European News
ECB’s Knot said he is increasingly confident inflation is falling towards the 2% target but the ECB must be cautious beyond a June rate cut.
FX
USD is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s JPY-induced losses which sent the index down to a low of 105.46. For now, the DXY has topped out at 105.96 and unable to reclaim 106 status, 106.18 was the high from yesterday. Recent EUR strength in the wake of the EZ data has led the index back down to the unchanged mark.
EUR is slightly firmer vs. the broadly flat USD in the wake of a slew of EZ data with EUR being propped up by firmer than expected growth metrics. Inflation data was in-line on a headline basis and mixed from a core perspective.
JPY is softer vs. the USD after yesterday’s wild (touted intervention led) session which saw USD/JPY swing from a 160.20 peak to a 154.51 low; currently trades towards the top end of a 156.08-99 range.
Antipodeans are giving back yesterday’s gains and then some as the USD regains some poise. AUD/USD had advanced to a peak of 0.6586 yesterday (highest since April 12th) before pulling back as low as 0.6514 with soft retail sales also acting as a drag.
Fixed Income
Bunds began on the backfoot after hotter than expected French inflation and a sticky Services metric, with additional pressure coming from better-than-forecast GDP prints by France & Germany ahead of the EZ figures. EZ HICP headline Y/Y was in-line with the core metrics mixed against expected, which led to a hawkish reaction; Bunds currently sit at session lows around 130.40 given the strong GDP numbers and potentially mixed core.
USTs are moving in tandem with EGBs which leaves the benchmark a touch softer but some way from Monday’s 107-18+ base. Specifics light thus far into Wednesday’s FOMC and Quarterly Refunding.
Gilts are once again following EGB/UST impetus. A narrative that is unlikely to change significantly in the near-term given a sparse UK docket before next week’s BoE; though, we are attentive to anything from the EZ/US, particularly around the Fed, which provides insight into the Central Bank divergence narrative.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.21x, average yield 4.251%, tail 0.8bps.
Commodities
Crude futures are choppy and now in modest positive territory after earlier subdued trade. Prices are on standby ahead of key macro risk events including the FOMC and US jobs data on Friday; Brent July similarly found an intraday base at USD 86.64/bbl.
Softer trade across precious metals amid yesterday’s geopolitical unwind coupled with a rebound in the Dollar today. Spot silver sits as the laggard after yesterday’s outperformance; XAU fell under yesterday’s low (USD 2,319.84/oz) to a current base at USD 2,310.96/oz.
Losses seen across base metals amid the aforementioned Dollar rebound coupled with a pullback in sentiment. 3M LME copper topped USD 10,200/t earlier to reach a USD 10,217.00/t intraday peak.
Geopolitics
“IDF finalizes Rafah plans, invasion possible if no deal in 72 hours”, according to Times of Israel.
“Israeli delegation will not head to Cairo until Hamas gives its response, according to Israeli official”, according to Walla’s Elster.
Hamas is expected to respond to the exchange deal proposal “tomorrow evening”, Al Arabiya reports
Hamas delegation left Cairo and will return with a written response to the ceasefire proposal, according to Egypt’s Al Qahera News.
An Israeli delegation plans to travel to Cairo to resume ceasefire talks if Hamas agrees to attend, according to NYT.
Israeli PM Netanyahu asked US President Biden to help prevent the ICC from issuing arrest warrants against Israeli officials, according to Axios.
Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted the ‘Cyclades’ vessel and two US destroyers in the Red Sea, while it also targeted ‘Israeli ship MSC Orion’ in the Indian Ocean, according to Reuters. US CENTCOM later confirmed that Iranian-backed Houthis fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles and three UAVs from Yemen into the Red Sea towards MV Cyclades but added there were no injuries or damages reported by US, coalition or merchant vessels.
Chinese Coast Guard expelled a Philippines Coast Guard ship and vessels from waters adjacent to the Scarborough Shoal.
Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration said military activities will be carried out in a part of the East China Sea from 07:00 AM on May 1st to 09:00 AM on May 9th local time and vessels unrelated to the activity are prohibited from entering the area.
US Event Calendar
08:30: 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 1.0%, prior 0.9%
09:00: Feb. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
09:00: Feb. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 6.70%, prior 6.59%
Feb. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.10%, prior 0.14%
Feb. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, est. 6.38%, prior 6.03%
09:45: April MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.0, prior 41.4
10:00: April Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 104.0, prior 104.7
April Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 151.0
April Conf. Board Expectations, prior 73.8
10:30: April Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -5.5
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets got the week off to a decent start yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) building on last week’s advance as we await the Fed’s decision tomorrow and an array of earnings releases. Several factors helped to boost sentiment, including a remarkable advance for Tesla (+15.31%) as outlets including Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese government officials had given the firm in-principle approval for its driver-assistance system. In addition, investors were reassured after there was nothing alarming in the flash CPI releases from several European countries, which cemented expectations that the ECB would deliver a rate cut in June. And alongside that, concern about a geopolitical escalation continued to ebb, with Brent crude oil prices down -1.23% to $88.40/bbl. So there were several positive catalysts helping to boost sentiment. The Yen’s range of around 160.25 – 154.5 was a constant side show all day, with heavy speculation that the government had intervened in very thin holiday trading. As we type this morning the Yen is trading down slightly at 156.75 from 156.35 as the US closed last night, which continues to leave it as the worst performing G10 currency year-to-date, down -10% against the US dollar. The intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed but top currency official Kanda has commented that the authorities are watching the Yen 24 hours a day and suggested they were looking more for the size of moves rather than specific levels.
Staying in Asia, China’s factory activity remained in expansion territory for the second consecutive month in April but the pace of expansion slowed slightly as the official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 (v/s 50.3 expected) as against a reading of 50.8 in March. Meanwhile, the decline in non-manufacturing activity was more pronounced as the official PMI moderated to 51.2 (v/s 52.3 expected) down from a reading of 53.0. At the same time, the Caixin manufacturing PMI advanced to 51.4 in April (v/s 51.0 expected), marking the fastest pace since February 2023 and compared to an expansion of 51.1 seen in March. Our Chinese economist reviews the details within today’s PMIs in a note just out here.
Going into more detail now on the main events of the last 24 hours. Those European inflation numbers were important from the market open, as they helped to allay fears about a European inflation rebound of the sort happening in the US. We’ll have to wait for the Euro Area-wide number today, but ahead of that, Spanish inflation came in at +3.4% on the EU-harmonised measure, in line with expectations. Then in Germany, harmonised inflation ticked up to +2.4% in April (vs. +2.3% expected), whilst in Ireland it fell a tenth to +1.6%, the lowest since June 2021. So given recent ECB commentary about a potential June cut, those numbers keep that on track, and market pricing raised the chance to a 91% probability by the close, up from 88% on Friday. Estonia’s Muller also backed up that sentiment, as he said that in June “we’ll probably have reached the point where it’s already possible to start lowering central-bank interest rates”.
The lack of any bad news on inflation supported government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic, with some added support from the fall in energy prices. For instance in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.3bps), OATs (-6.2bps) and BTPs (-6.6bps) all saw decent declines. And over in the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries were also down -5.0bps to 4.61% and are a further -1bps lower overnight at 4.60% as we go to print.
US Treasuries had sold off by a couple of basis points later in the US session following the latest borrowing estimates from the US Treasury. These saw the expected Q2 issuance rise from $202bn to $243bn, “largely due to lower cash receipts”. This was slightly puzzling given what have been fairly strong tax receipts in the recent April tax period. Still, while the Q2 estimate was revised slightly higher, the Q3 number (excluding TGA movement) was in line with expectations, so our rates strategists don’t see meaningful alteration to the fiscal outlook. Indeed, the negative reaction in Treasuries did not persist with yields closing not far above their intra-day lows.
For equities, it was also a solid day, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) up to its highest level in a couple of weeks, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.07%) inching up to a 3-week high. The advance was a broad-based one, with the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.70%) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.70%) posting larger gains. But there was some weakness in continental Europe, where the CAC 40 (-0.29%), the DAX (-0.24%) and the IBEX 35 (-0.48%) all lost ground.
Asian equity markets are mostly higher again this morning with the Nikkei leading gains (+1.38%) after returning from a public holiday with the KOSPI (+0.70%) also notably higher after index heavyweight Samsung Electronics topped earnings estimates for the Jan-March quarter after its semiconductor division returned to profitability. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.25%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.24%) are also moving higher. Elsewhere, mainland Chinese stocks are trading slightly lower with both the CSI (-0.18%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.12%) seeing minor losses following the batch of mixed PMI readings for April. S&P 500 (-0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.0%) futures are quiet.
Retail sales in Australia unexpectedly slumped -0.4% m/m in March (v/s +0.2% expected) as against a revised +0.2% increase the previous month thus dampening expectations that the next move in interest rates might be up. This was a very low number relative to the last several decades of data so it does put into doubt the RBA’s view that the consumer is holding up.
In the political sphere, Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez confirmed that he would remain as PM, which follows his decision to cancel engagements last week following allegations against his wife. Separately in the UK though, the Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf announced his resignation. That comes after last week’s collapse of an agreement between his Scottish National Party and the Greens, meaning that the SNP no longer had a majority in the Scottish Parliament. We’ve got lots more UK political events this week, as local elections are taking place on Thursday, which are the final electoral test for the political parties before the next general election, which has to be held by January at the latest.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI release for April, along with Q1 GDP. In the US, we’ll also get the Employment Cost Index for Q1, the FHFA house price index for February, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for April, and the MNI Chicago PMI for April. Meanwhile in the UK, there are mortgage approvals for March. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Amazon, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Starbucks.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities modestly lower, Bunds hampered by EZ data & DXY is flat; US ECI & AMZN due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 06:05 AM
European bourses are mixed, though have tilted lower as the session progressed; US equity futures modestly softer
DXY is flat, EUR benefits from strong EZ GDP metrics, USD/JPY firmer and just shy of 157.00
Bonds are lower, dragged down by French/German and finally EZ figures
Crude is incrementally firmer as Gaza peace talks continue, XAU at session lows and base metals in the red
Looking ahead, US Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, RBNZ FSR. Earnings from Amazon, McDonald’s, Advanced Micro Devices, Eli Lilly, Mondelez, Air Products and Chemicals, Coca-Cola, 3M, PayPal, Marathon & Starbucks.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) are mixed, with a slight negative bias. Indices initially opened around flat, though tilted lower as the morning progressed, with little driving the shift in sentiment.
European sectors hold little bias, with the breadth of the market fairly narrow, with the exception of Autos, dragged down by poor results from Mercedes (-3.4%), Stellantis (-2.4%) and Volkswagen (-2.1%). Real Estate tops the pile, propped up by post-earning gains in Vonovia (+5.5%).
US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are modestly softer, in fitting with the broader price action seen in European trade. Earnings include: McDonald’s, AMD, Amazon and Starbucks.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including notable earnings/updates from: Mercedes, Stellantis, Volkswagen, HSBC and more.
USD is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s JPY-induced losses which sent the index down to a low of 105.46. For now, the DXY has topped out at 105.96 and unable to reclaim 106 status, 106.18 was the high from yesterday. Recent EUR strength in the wake of the EZ data has led the index back down to the unchanged mark.
EUR is slightly firmer vs. the broadly flat USD in the wake of a slew of EZ data with EUR being propped up by firmer than expected growth metrics. Inflation data was in-line on a headline basis and mixed from a core perspective.
JPY is softer vs. the USD after yesterday’s wild (touted intervention led) session which saw USD/JPY swing from a 160.20 peak to a 154.51 low; currently trades towards the top end of a 156.08-99 range.
Antipodeans are giving back yesterday’s gains and then some as the USD regains some poise. AUD/USD had advanced to a peak of 0.6586 yesterday (highest since April 12th) before pulling back as low as 0.6514 with soft retail sales also acting as a drag.
Bunds began on the backfoot after hotter than expected French inflation and a sticky Services metric, with additional pressure coming from better-than-forecast GDP prints by France & Germany ahead of the EZ figures. EZ HICP headline Y/Y was in-line with the core metrics mixed against expected, which led to a hawkish reaction; Bunds currently sit at session lows around 130.40 given the strong GDP numbers and potentially mixed core.
USTs are moving in tandem with EGBs which leaves the benchmark a touch softer but some way from Monday’s 107-18+ base. Specifics light thus far into Wednesday’s FOMC and Quarterly Refunding.
Gilts are once again following EGB/UST impetus. A narrative that is unlikely to change significantly in the near-term given a sparse UK docket before next week’s BoE; though, we are attentive to anything from the EZ/US, particularly around the Fed, which provides insight into the Central Bank divergence narrative.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.21x, average yield 4.251%, tail 0.8bps.
Crude futures are choppy and now in modest positive territory after earlier subdued trade. Prices are on standby ahead of key macro risk events including the FOMC and US jobs data on Friday; Brent July similarly found an intraday base at USD 86.64/bbl.
Softer trade across precious metals amid yesterday’s geopolitical unwind coupled with a rebound in the Dollar today. Spot silver sits as the laggard after yesterday’s outperformance; XAU fell under yesterday’s low (USD 2,319.84/oz) to a current base at USD 2,310.96/oz.
Losses seen across base metals amid the aforementioned Dollar rebound coupled with a pullback in sentiment. 3M LME copper topped USD 10,200/t earlier to reach a USD 10,217.00/t intraday peak.
ECB’s Knot said he is increasingly confident inflation is falling towards the 2% target but the ECB must be cautious beyond a June rate cut.
DATA RECAP
EU HICP-X F&E Flash YY (Apr) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.1%); HICP Flash YY (Apr) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%); HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM (Apr) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.80% (Prev. 1.10%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY (Apr) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.9%)
EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q1) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2%; GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q1) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
German Retail Sales MM Real (Mar) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. -1.9%); YY Real (Mar) 0.3% (Prev. -2.7%); Import Prices YY (Mar) -3.6% vs. Exp. -3.8% (Prev. -4.9%); MM (Mar) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); GDP Flash YY NSA (Q1) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -0.4%); GDP Flash QQ SA (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%)
German Unemployment Chg SA (Apr) 10.0k vs. Exp. 9.0k (Prev. 4.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Apr) 5.9% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.9%); Unemployment Total SA (Apr) 2.732M (Prev. 2.719M); Unemployment Total NSA (Apr) 2.75M (Prev. 2.769M)
French GDP Preliminary QQ (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); CPI Prelim MM NSA (Apr) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.2%); CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Apr) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%); Producer Prices MM (Mar) -0.2% (Prev. -1.7%); CPI Prelim YY NSA (Apr) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.3%)
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Apr) 0.8% (Prev. 1.3%)
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Shares climb 3.4% pre-market on top- and bottom-line beats, and guidance. Q1 adj. EPS 3.24 (exp. 3.16), Q1 revenue USD 3.13bln (exp. 3.13bln). Q1 gross margin 58.2% (exp. 58%), Q1 operating margin 34.5% (exp. 34%). Auto revenue -1% Y/Y, Industrial/IoT +14%, Mobile +34%, Communications Infrastructure -25% Y/Y. Exec said early views into H2 underpin a cautious optimism. Sees Q2 revenue of 3.125bln (exp. 3.11bln), Q2 EPS of 3.20 (exp. 3.12).
Paramount Global (PARA) Q1 Adj. EPS 0.62 (exp. 0.36), Q1 revenue USD 7.69bln (exp. 7.73bln); Q1 Paramount+ net additions +3.7mln (exp. +2.2mln); Q1 EBITDA USD 0.987bln (exp. 0.756bln), Q1 FCF USD 209mln (exp. -62mln). President and CEO Bob Bakish stepped down, as many press reports suggested he would do over the weekend. Establishes a management committee; George Cheeks, Chris McCarthy, and Brian Robbins will work with CFO Naveen Chopra to accelerate growth, streamline operations, and optimise streaming strategy; Chair Shari Redstone (of National Amusements) has expressed confidence in their leadership.
Adidas (ADS GY) Q1 (EUR): Revenue 5.45bln (exp. 5.46bln, prev. 5.27bln Y/Y). Currency-neutral sales +8% driven by growth in all regions except in North America, where revenue fell by 4% to 1.12bln. Europe: +14%.
Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) Q1 (EUR): Revenue 41.7bln (exp. 43.92bln), -12% Y/Y due to “volume, mix and foreign exchange headwinds, partly offset by firm net pricing”. Click here for more detail.
Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) Q1 (EUR): Operating Profit 4.59bln (exp. 4.51bln). Revenue 75.5bln (exp. 74.193bln). Operating Margin 6.1% (prev. 7.5% Y/Y); outlook confirmed. Click here for more details.
Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GY) Q1 (EUR): Adj. EBIT 3.60bln (exp. 3.71bln). Sales 35.87bln (exp. 35.58bln). Cars Adj. EBIT 2.32bln (2.57bln); Outlook maintained. Click here for more details.
HSBC (5 HK/ HSBA LN) Q1 (USD): Revenue 20.75bln (exp. 21.03bln). Pretax profit 12.65bln (exp. 12.61bln). CET1 ratio 15.2% (exp. 15.4%). CEO Quinn is unexpectedly retiring. Click here for more details.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Caterpillar (CAT) Caterpillar announced a voluntary delisting from Euronext Paris and the Six Swiss Exchange; cites low trading volumes and high administrative costs. CAT will solely trade on NYSE thereafter. (Newswires)
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk is reportedly planning more layoffs as two senior executives depart, while roughly 500 people will be laid off in supercharger group, according to The Information. (The Information)
WSJ’s Timiraos article “Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer” & “Firmer price pressures could lead longer-term rates to rise as investors continue paring back expectations of cuts”
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“IDF finalizes Rafah plans, invasion possible if no deal in 72 hours”, according to Times of Israel.
“Israeli delegation will not head to Cairo until Hamas gives its response, according to Israeli official”, according to Walla’s Elster.
Hamas is expected to respond to the exchange deal proposal “tomorrow evening”, Al Arabiya reports
Hamas delegation left Cairo and will return with a written response to the ceasefire proposal, according to Egypt’s Al Qahera News.
An Israeli delegation plans to travel to Cairo to resume ceasefire talks if Hamas agrees to attend, according to NYT.
Israeli PM Netanyahu asked US President Biden to help prevent the ICC from issuing arrest warrants against Israeli officials, according to Axios.
Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted the ‘Cyclades’ vessel and two US destroyers in the Red Sea, while it also targeted ‘Israeli ship MSC Orion’ in the Indian Ocean, according to Reuters. US CENTCOM later confirmed that Iranian-backed Houthis fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles and three UAVs from Yemen into the Red Sea towards MV Cyclades but added there were no injuries or damages reported by US, coalition or merchant vessels.
OTHER
Chinese Coast Guard expelled a Philippines Coast Guard ship and vessels from waters adjacent to the Scarborough Shoal.
Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration said military activities will be carried out in a part of the East China Sea from 07:00 AM on May 1st to 09:00 AM on May 9th local time and vessels unrelated to the activity are prohibited from entering the area.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin sinks under USD 62k, with Ethereum also under hefty selling pressure now down below USD 3.1k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly higher but with gains capped heading into month-end amid a slew of data and earnings.
ASX 200 was led by strength in the mining sector but with upside limited after a surprise contraction in Retail Sales.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from the long weekend and as participants digested a slew of earnings releases.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied in which the former made another brief foray into bull market territory, while the mainland lagged ahead of the Labour Day holidays and as participants reflected on mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official NBS Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs topped forecasts but Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed despite remaining in expansion territory.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 440bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80%.
PBoC reportedly wants to halt the bond-buying spree and not join in on it, with the central bank concerned about bond market bubbles and economic gloom, according to Bloomberg.
Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on FX intervention and noted that a weak yen has positive and negative impacts, while he added the currency has a bigger impact on import prices now and that excessive FX moves could impact daily lives. Kanda said they need to take appropriate actions on FX and reiterated they are ready to take action 24 hours a day and will continue taking appropriate actions when needed.
BoJ keep monthly bond purchases plan for May unchanged from April
China’s Communist Party Central Committee is to hold a 3rd plenum during July, via State Media; Politburo undertook a meeting on Tuesday. Click here for full details.
Former Japanese top FX diplomat Furusawa says it is highly likely the Japanese government intervened on Monday to prop up the JPY
APAC DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.8); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 51.2 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 53.0)
Chinese Composite PMI (Apr) 51.7 (Prev. 52.7)
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.1)
Japanese Industrial Production MM (Mar P) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. -0.6%)
Japanese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 1.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 4.6%, Rev. 4.7%)
Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Mar) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.22 PTS OR 0.28% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 16.12 PTS OR 0.09% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 420.90 PT OR 1.24% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2410//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2493 Oil DOWN TO 83.13dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 87.66 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/GOLD
“The Only Safe Asset” – Chinese Consumers Overtake India In Gold-Buying Frenzy
MONDAY, APR 29, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Who could have seen this coming?
ICYMI from Nov 2023, when gold was still 1900 Behind The Mysterious Explosion In Gold Prices: China’s “Massive Accumulation Of Gold”
·In November 2023, with gold trading around $1900/oz, we highlighted the beginning of a precious metal buying-binge from China, noting that the prcie for physical gold had never been more expensive at the time (while western gold prices were still below their prior record highs
Additionally we noted the total lack of demand for so-called ‘paper gold’ via ETFs as holdigs underlying these vehicles was declining, as investors rotated from paper to physical:
“The rising interest in gold bars and coins was primarily driven by investors’ safe-haven demand, supported by global geopolitical instability and weak performance of investment products denominated in Chinese yuan.”
Source: Bloomberg
Now, a few months later, we get confirmation as The South China Morning Post reports that consumers in China bought 308.9 tonnes (10.9 million ounces) of gold in the first quarter, representing a 5.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
Sure enough, as SCMP points out, Chinese consumers are increasing their appetite for gold, seeking to protect their assets amid a volatile stock market, a depreciating yuan and property doldrums, which analysts said would continue to boost international gold prices coupled with geopolitical uncertainties.
Purchases of gold bars and coins, which largely reflect investment and hedging demand, surged by 26.8 per cent year on year to 106.3 tonnes, while gold jewellery sales declined by 3 per cent from a year earlier to 183.9 tonnes.
“Gold represents the only safe asset for [Chinese consumers] to protect their wealth against domestic inflation, asset price declines as well as against geopolitical risks,” said Chen Zhiwu, the chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
“I expect Chinese household demand for gold to rise more in the future. And the Chinese central bank will also continue to purchase more gold to prepare for more geopolitical turmoil ahead.”
China’s central bank bought 160,000 ounces of gold bullion in March, marking its 17th consecutive monthly purchase and bringing its total reserves to 2,262 tonnes (72.74 million ounces), as it aims to diversify holdings away from US bonds amid strained bilateral relations.
“The escalation in gold holdings by global central banks, coupled with heightened gold demand in the Chinese market, has emerged as significant drivers propelling recent gold prices beyond market expectations,” the Bank of China said on Friday.
“In the future, gold prices are expected to sustain their robust upwards trajectory, driven by ongoing global central bank efforts to de-dollarise, escalating geopolitical uncertainty, and shifts in the [US] Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,” the report said.
China eclipsed India as the largest purchaser of gold jewellery in 2023, with consumption totalling 630 tonnes last year, representing an annual increase of 10 per cent.
“The China story is one of the reasons supporting gold prices, but the global risk-off sentiment is also fuelling the demand,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, who expected China’s demand for gold to remain resilient in 2024.
“Beyond China, whether the US can take inflation is another determinant for future gold prices, which is probably the biggest uncertainty.”
However, as TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali points out another potential source of gold strength.
With little trace in exchange data, buying activity must be OTC. However, price action in basis, forwards, and BoE gold suggest the buying program is price insensitive, has a sense of urgency, and deep pockets. This mysterious bid may point to curiously aggressive OTC buying activity, which appears to be highly correlated with acute currency depreciation pressures.
Ongoing currency pressures could explain the sense of urgency behind this bid, with a high correlation with the CNY’s deviation from its fix inching towards its fixed band.
Historically, this has been associated with a significant outperformance as the exceptional buying activity underpins a squeeze from those using the traditional playbook.
Finally, US election dynamics are a positive for gold, according to TD Securities’ Bart Malek.
A Republican administration is likely to push lower taxes, with spending largely unchanged. The resulting higher deficit projections, from the already very high numbers, should help gold, as it suggests higher inflation, lower real rates and continued central bank buying. A likely even more adversarial stance toward China and Iran taken by a Republican administration would also contribute to gold’s good fortune and should see oil well supported.
Simply put, gold remains a good sanction-proof private- and central-bank-diversifier.
END
CHINA VS USA
China threatens to retaliate against the USA over Taiwan aid and TikTok ban
(zerohedge)
China Threatens To Retaliate Against US Over Taiwan Aid And TikTok Ban
On Monday, the Chinese government threatened to retaliate against the United States after a $95 billion foreign aid package was signed into law, which included aid for Taiwan and a provision to ban the Chinese social media app TikTok.
As reported by Fox News, the bill signed into law by Biden on Wednesday included $2 billion to restock American weapons provided to Taiwan and other allies in the Indo-Pacific, in a direct attempt to deter Chinese aggression in the region. Additionally, the law demands that TikTok’s parent company ByteDance sell the popular app to another company within nine months, or else the app will be banned from use in the United States.
“China firmly rejects the U.S. passing and signing into law the military aid package containing negative content on China,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian in a briefing.
“We have lodged serious representations to the U.S.”
“This package gravely infringes upon China’s sovereignty. It includes large military aid to Taiwan, which seriously violates the one-China principle, and sends a seriously wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces,” Lin continued.
“The legislation undermines the principles of market economy and fair competition by wantonly going after other countries’ companies in the name of ‘national security,’ which once again reveals the U.S.’s hegemonic and bullying nature.”
The issue of Taiwan has remained a contentious point in U.S.-China relations, with some considering Taiwan to be a free and independent nation, while others believe it to be part of China. The federal government has never taken a clear stance on the question, thus highlighting the significance of the decision to provide direct aid to Taiwan.
TikTok has faced widespread scrutiny from both sides of the political aisle, with Republicans pointing out its threat to national security by virtue of it being a Chinese company preying on American users, while Democrats have raised concerns about users’ private information being easily accessed and sold by the company.
TikTok is most popular among younger Americans such as Generation Z, or “Zoomers,” and the ban being signed into law has sparked outrage against Biden among younger voters.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
Just what Germany needs!
(EpochTimes)
Over 1,000 Protestors Demand Establishment Of Islamic State In Germany
Over 1,000 peaceful protesters gathered in Hamburg, Germany, over the weekend, with the leader of the group demanding the establishment of am Islamic caliphate in the European country.
A caliphate is a political-religious form of government under the leadership of an Islamic steward with the title of the caliph or “successor of the prophet of God,” who is considered a high-ranking leader in the Muslim world.
According to local German media reports and German authorities, the protest was organized by a young man who leads a populist extremist group, Muslim Interaktiv. In several videos of the protest posted online, a speaker addressing a crowd can be heard describing the caliphate as a “system that provides security” that has been “demonized” by politicians and media in Germany. The crowd responded with cheer, and some with chants of “Allahu Akbar (God is the greatest).”
A social media account connected to the group shared multiple photos and posts of the protest, which it says was aimed at standing against the “demonization of all Islamic life in Germany.”
The organizers claim the rally was to protest against alleged Islamophobic policies of the German government and alleged media disinformation campaigns against Muslims in Germany while reporting on the unfolding Israel-Hamas war.
“We will raise our voices together, inshallah (if God wills it),” a post on X said. “Together against Islamophobic reporting, both in recent weeks and in recent months.”
Muslim Interaktiv Linked to Designated Terrorist Group
Germany’s Federal Criminal Intelligence Service, or BKA, and Hamburg’s security services claim Muslim Interaktiv is part of Hizb ut-Tahrir (‘Party of Liberation’), a global Salafi Islamist movement with the goal of uniting the world under an Islamic caliphate and implementing Sharia law.
Hizb ut-Tahrir, which was founded in Jerusalem in 1953, has been banned from operating in Germany since 2003. It is also banned in many Muslim-majority countries and faces resistance from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, where it advocates for the re-establishment of a caliphate through non-military means, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The United Kingdom banned the group in January under its counterterrorism laws despite the group’s insistence it is a non-violent political party. Extremism analyst Ghaffar Hussain disagreed with the designation. But he warned a forum in January that, while he does not believe Hizb ut-Tahrir is a terrorist group as its ideology does not directly rally members to commit acts of violence, the ideology does spread violent and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and justifies and encourages violence and terrorism from other Islamist groups.
In his designation, UK Home Affairs Secretary James Cleverly cited risks of inciting violence and antisemitism during ceasefire protests for Gaza. The order designating them a terrorist organization makes belonging to Hizb ut-Tahrir or inviting support for the group a criminal offense. Offenders can be hit with potential prison sentence time or a fine.
At the moment, there has been no suggestion that the Muslim Interaktiv’s demonstration in Germany broke the law, despite the Muslim Interaktiv group being classified by the intelligence services as extremist. In October 2023, shortly after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel and killed 1,200 people, Muslim Interaktiv held a similar protest that ended in clashes with police.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser of the left-wing Social Democratic Party said during an interview with local German media that police need to act if crimes are committed during political demonstrations.
“Seeing an Islamist demonstration of this kind on our streets is difficult to bear. It’s a good thing that the Hamburg police counteracted crime with a large presence,” she said.
“The red line at which Germany’s protection of the right of assembly and freedom of speech ended had to be clear. No terrorism propaganda for Hamas, no hate speech directed at Jews. If crimes like this occur, there has to be immediate and forceful intervention at demonstrations.”
Muslim Interaktiv followers are classed as “pop-Islamists,” and the increasing reach and influence among young people have been labeled as a concern by German authorities. According to Ms. Faeser, the group is being watched.
“Other groups that raise emotions, radicalize and recruit new Islamists are also being watched by our security authorities. This included the group at the Hamburg demonstration,” she said.
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Blinken Urges Hamas To Take ‘Extraordinarily Generous’ Ceasefire Deal
MONDAY, APR 29, 2024 – 06:00 PM
Israeli officials have reportedly given Hamas an ultimatum, saying the group has “one last chance” to reach a deal, according to Axios. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday, “If there is a deal, we will suspend the operation” – in reference to the planned Rafah ground offensive.
He added that “The release of the hostages is a deep priority for us.” Following Oct.7 and the first hostage/prisoner swap which took place on November 22, the number of Israeli hostages (and dual nationals) which remain in Hamas captivity stand at 129. However, Israeli leaders have long acknowledged the likelihood that many of these are already deceased.
Hamas is still pressing for a full and permanent cessation of all hostilities, along with full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, while Tel Aviv is just pushing for a temporary pause in fighting.
According to Al Jazeera, this is ultimately unlikely to sway Hamas negotiators:
Israel wants to “have its cake and eat it too. They want to get their captives back out of Gaza and into Israel. But then they want to be able to continue the war on Gaza after a brief pause,” Mohamad Elmasry, media studies professor and political analyst at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Saudi Arabia on Monday, his first stop in a broader Middle East tour focused primarily in Gaza, but he’s pushing Saudi-Israel normalization.
Blinken has called on Hamas to accept Israel’s latest and “extraordinarily generous” proposal for a Gaza truce. “Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” the US top diplomat said.
“The only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas. They have to decide and they have to decide quickly,” Blinken said from Riyadh. “I’m hopeful that they will make the right decision.”
A source briefed on the talks said Israel’s proposal entailed a deal to accept the release of fewer than 40 of the roughly 130 hostages believed to be still held in exchange for freeing Palestinians jailed in Israel, and a second phase of a truce consisting of a “period of sustained calm” – Israel’s compromise response to a Hamas demand for permanent ceasefire.
Among these 40 would be any remaining children, women, sick and elderly hostages. Both sides have been this close before, but never with Washington applying this much pressure to see a deal through to the finish line.
Blinken has sought to assure Arab states and Palestinian leaders that the US cannot support an attack against Rafah “in the absence of an (Israeli) plan to ensure that civilians will not be harmed.”
Blinken and the Biden administration are still hoping to secure a broader deal involving Saudi Arabia, which he says is “potentially very close to completion.” It hinges on Saudi-Israeli diplomatic recognition, and in return the basis for recognition of a Palestinian state by Israel.
“To move forward with normalization, two things will be required: calm in Gaza and a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,” Blinken said in fresh remarks.
However, Hamas is believed to have several intact battalions inside Rafah, and the Netanyahu government has vowed to see through its operation until it has accomplished the total eradication of Hamas. To do this, Israel believes it must got into Rafah with full ground and air might, but it will result in humanitarian catastrophe for the over one million civilians currently taking refuge there.
end
ISRAEL/JERUSALEM
Police officer wounded in stabbing in Jerusalem’s Old City, terrorist neutralized
The terrorist who carried out the attack was identified as a 34-year-old Turkish citizen.
By KESHET NEEVAPRIL 30, 2024 12:40Updated: APRIL 30, 2024 15:43
A man was wounded in a stabbing attack near Herod’s Gate in Jerusalem.(photo credit: UNITED HATZALAH)
A police officer was in light-to-moderate condition after being stabbed in an attack near Herod’s Gate, located in the Old City in Jerusalem, on Tuesday afternoon.
The police officer, in his 30’s, was attacked from behind, according to police. A Border Police officer at the scene spotted the attack and shot the terrorist. The terrorist later died.
The terrorist who carried out the attack was a 34-year-old Turkish citizen named Hasan Skalanan, who entered Israel yesterday from Jordan through the Allenby Bridge, according to Israeli media reports. Police confirmed that the terrorist was a Turkish citizen.
The central unit of the Jerusalem District of Israel Police, as well as the Shin Bet, are investigating the attack.
District commander praises officers for professional conduct
The commander of the Jerusalem District, Doron Turgeman, held a situation assessment at the scene of the attack with commanders from the district, praising the professional response of the officers. Turgeman also visited the injured officer in the hospital on Tuesday afternoon.
END
ISRAEL//HAMAS
Rafah Invasion Will Happen With Or Without Hostage Deal: Netanyahu
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 09:45 AM
Despite immense pressure coming from the Biden administration for Israel to secure the hostage deal that’s on the table with Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged that an invasion of Rafah will go on with or without a deal.
He issued the words Tuesday while speaking to an audience sympathetic to his hardline coalition. “The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all its aims is not an option,” Netanyahu said. “We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there — whether or not there is a deal — in order to achieve total victory.”
In reference to the hawkish Gvura and Tikva forums a statement from by the Prime Minister’s Office indicated that “the groups urged Netanyahu and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi to continue the war and to resist international pressure.”
According to an AP description, “Netanyahu on Tuesday was addressing the Tikva Forum, a small group of families of hostages that’s distinct from the main group representing the families of captive Israelis that has indicated it prefers to see Hamas crushed over the freedom of their loved ones.”
The timing of the strong statement is interesting given it came as he met with ultra hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has vowed to quit the government if Israel doesn’t proceed with the Rafah ground offensive. Netanyahu said the words also hours ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arriving in the country.
The AFP on Tuesday has reported that Israel to wait until Wednesday night for a Hamas response to the Gaza truce proposal, according to unnamed Israeli officials.
The Biden administration is desperate to see a deal through, also given it would ease the ratcheting pressure on Biden related to the ongoing revolt of Progressive Democrats ahead of the election over the plight of Palestinians.
This certainly isn’t the first time that Netanyahu government officials have issued such declarations. For example in March,Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was quoted in Bloomberg as saying the military is going to invade Rafah and defeat Hamas “even if the entire world turns on Israel, including the United States.”
And at the start of this week, in statements to NBC, US officials expressed confidence that they do not believe Israel is ready to launch a full-scale invasion of Rafah.
Blinken has called Israel’s current ceasefire deal on the table “extraordinarily generous” and that Hamas must take it. A Hamas official was quoted as saying, “The new proposal is a positive development, but it is too early to be optimistic.”
From the Israeli side, there have been contradictory statements issued, which is sometimes typical as a negotiating tactic. Over the weekend Israeli officials reportedly gave Hamas an ultimatum, saying the group has “one last chance” to reach a deal, according to Axios. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday, “If there is a deal, we will suspend the operation” – in reference to the planned Rafah ground offensive.
But Netanyahu appears to have just thrown cold water on that, in his fresh statements perhaps meant by design to collapse the fragile talks just before they reach the finish line.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
Houthis attack four ships in Indian Ocean, Red Sea
In March, the group’s leader said the group was expanding its attack area to prevent Israel-linked ships from passing through the Indian Ocean toward the Cape of Good Hope.
By REUTERS
An aerial view of the Barbados-flagged ship True Confidence ablaze following a Houthi missile attack at sea, March 6, 2024, in this handout photo.(photo credit: DVIDS/Handout via REUTERS )
Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted the MSC Orion container ship in a drone attack in the Indian Ocean as part of their ongoing campaign against international shipping against Israel.
Portugal-flagged MSC Orion was sailing between the ports in Sines, Portugal and Salalah, Oman and its registered owner is Zodiac Maritime, according to LSEG data.
Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iran-aligned Houthi terrorists have launched repeated drone and missile strikes in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden since November, forcing shippers to re-route cargo to longer and more expensive journeys around Southern Africa and stoking fears that the Israel-Hamas war could spread and destabilise the Middle East.
Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, carry a Palestinian flag during a rally to show solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen March 8, 2024. (credit: KHALED ABDULLAH/REUTERS)
Expanding attack range
In March, the group’s leader said the group was expanding its attack area to prevent Israel-linked ships from passing through the Indian Ocean toward the Cape of Good Hope.
The Iran-affiliated group also targeted the Cyclades commercial vessel as well as two U.S. destroyers in the Red Sea, its spokesman said in a televised address early on Tuesday.
British maritime security firm Ambrey reported earlier that a Malta-flagged container ship on Monday said it was targeted by three missiles while en route from Djibouti to the Saudi city of Jeddah. The Houthis said the Cyclades was on that route when they attacked the vessel.
Ambrey assessed that the ship was targeted due to its listed operator’s ongoing trade with Israel, it said in an advisory note.
The United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets in retaliation for their attacks on vessels.
ISRAEL//GAZA
the cost of the pier has doubled to 320 million dollars
(Zerohedge)
Senator Tells Taxpayers On Gaza Pier: “Cost Has Not Just Risen, It Has Exploded”
MONDAY, APR 29, 2024 – 10:40 PM
An initial US Navy ship has reached Eastern Mediterranean waters off the coast of the Gaza Strip where its crew has begun constructing a floating platform for the ambitious Gaza humanitarian pier project ordered by President Biden, new satellite images published by Planet Labs show.
USNS Roy P. Benavidez is now some 5 miles from the shoreline location which serves as the base of operations, overseen by the Israeli military. The Associated Press writes that “A satellite image from Sunday by Planet Labs PBC showed pieces of the floating pier in the Mediterranean Sea alongside the vessel.”
Both US and Israeli officials have voiced that they hope to have a mobile pier in place and humanitarian deliveries being offloaded via maritime routes by sometime in the first part of May.
The causeway is expected to be at a length of 550-meters (1,800 feet) and will have Israeli military protection. US Army and Navy engineers are expected to remain at sea, especially after days ago the pier site came under mortar shelling by Palestinian militants who have warned against foreign forces stepping foot inside Gaza.
A new Reuters report meanwhile indicates the pier will cost US taxpayers at least $320 million to finish. This is double the early estimates which were floated earlier this year.
“The figure, which has not been previously reported, illustrates the massive scale of a construction effort that the Pentagon has said involves about 1,000 US service members, mostly from the Army and Navy,” writes Reuters.
“The cost has not just risen. It has exploded,” Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Democratic-led Senate Armed Services Committee, has complained.
“This dangerous effort with marginal benefit will now cost the American taxpayers at least $320 million [US dollars] to operate the pier for only 90 days,” he continued.
Earlier this month, USAID director Samantha Power said that famine already exists in some parts of the Gaza Strip. WSJ has underscored this as well in its reporting last week: “Some U.S. officials have said the pier, which will float several miles off Gaza’s shore, will help get more aid into northern Gaza, where some residents are already living in famine-like conditions, according to estimates released last month by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international initiative tasked with assessing the risk of famine around the world.”
Many government officials especially from Global South countries have highlighted Washington’s contradictory approach to Gaza – on the one hand the US has been funding the Israeli military machine, sending controversial weaponry like 2,000-pound bombs, while on the other Biden has condemned the soaring civilian death toll and humanitarian catastrophe. Ironically, to some degree the United States is funding both sides of the conflict.
US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks to the press after the House passed a major aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and also voted to ban TikTok at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on April 20, 2024. (Drew Angerer/AFP)
US Congress members from both parties have warned the International Criminal Court that Washington will retaliate against the court if it issues arrest warrants against top Israeli officials, Axios reports.
The report says legislation on the matter is already being worked on, citing House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, as expecting a bill to sanction ICC officials but adding: “We hope it doesn’t come to that.”
Meanwhile, US House Speaker Mike Johnson slams the reported intention to issue arrest warrants over the Gaza war.
“It is disgraceful that the International Criminal Court is reportedly planning to issue baseless and illegitimate arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials,” Johnson says in a statement.
“Such a lawless action by the ICC would directly undermine US national security interests. If unchallenged by the Biden administration, the ICC could create and assume unprecedented power to issue arrest warrants against American political leaders, American diplomats, and American military personnel, thereby endangering our country’s sovereign authority,” Johnson adds.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IRAN/
IRAN/ISRAEL
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THIS MORNING
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
Big Pharma Finally Admits COVID-19 Vaccines Can Cause Blood Clots – What You Can Do About It!
Cambridge-based AstraZeneca… acknowledged in a legal document submitted to the High Court in February that its vaccine ‘can, in very rare cases, cause TTS’.
TTS is short for thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome – a medical condition where a person suffers blood clots along with a low platelet count. Platelets typically help the blood to clot.
The admission by AstraZeneca is the first of its kind.
The question now is – if you got the vaccine, what can you do about it?
Post-acute sequelae after SARS-CoV-2 infection (long COVID) and after COVID-19 vaccination are characterized by micro blood clotting . The work of Scheim et alsuggests the majority of syndromes in both cases are due to Spike protein mediated hemagglutination and then the development of small clots that serve the major organs in the body. Xi et al demonstrated increased risk for microclots visualized in retinal arteries and veins in the COVID-19 vaccinated.
Nattokinase, from the Japanese fermented food natto, is a protease with fibrinolytic activity that can thus degrade conventional blood clots. In some cases, however, including in Long COVID, fibrinogen can polymerise into an anomalous amyloid form to create clots that are resistant to normal fibrinolysis and that we refer to as fibrinaloid microclots. These can be detected with the fluorogenic stain thioflavin T. We describe an automated microscopic technique for the quantification of fibrinaloid microdot formation, which also allows the kinetics of their formation and aggregation to be recorded. We also here show that recombinant nattokinase is effective at degrading the fibrinaloid microclots in vitro. This adds to the otherwise largely anecdotal evidence, that we review, that nattokinase might be anticipated to have value as part of therapeutic treatments for individuals with Long COVID and related disorders that involve fibrinaloid microclots.
Dr. McCullough treats hundreds of patients in his clinic with a wide range post-vaccine and long COVID symptoms.
Says Dr. McCullough:
“Far and away the most common question I get from those who took one of the COVID-19 vaccines is: ‘how do I get this out of my body?’… At three and one half years into the pandemic and two and a half years into the COVID-19 vaccine debacle, myself and my clinic partners formulated a baseline regimen upon which additional drugs or agents can be added.
“We searched the literature for all available sources of evidence for products that can aid the human body in breaking down and catabolizing the Spike protein. We found nattokinase, which additionally has fibrinolytic properties which are advantageous in the prothrombotic milieu induced by the persistent Spike protein…
Out of all the available therapies I have used in my practice and among all the proposed detoxification agents, I believe nattokinase and related peptides hold the greatest promise for patients at this time.”
Feeling so much better! I decided to try Spike Support after talking with a friend that recommended this product. I had 2 Covid shots because my husband has degenerative heart condition and our doctor said to get the shots. He had no side effects but I ended up with an erratic racing heart beat and had problem with ringing ears, tasting and smelling, even though I never had Covid. I have taken this product for 2 months now and noticed a difference in lots of things. No more racing heart beat, I’m smelling and tasting things better and my anxiety has subsided. – Audrey H.
Worked for me: I have taken three of the mRNA vaxxes – I’ll never take another one again. The skin on my hands peeled after the 3rd vax, especially around my nails, to the point where I had deep, bleeding, incredibly painful fissures and cracks… I am sure the vax is what caused my skin problems as well – I’d never had this before being vaxxed. Bought the Spike Support as a desperate measure. Noticed about three weeks after I started taking Spike Support, the peeling, cracks and fissures around my fingertips, and under and around my nails have not only stopped but healed up. My hands are 95% better now. I am sure the Spike Support is what stopped it. – Barbara B.
Spike protein recovery: This product has tremendously help me on recovering my heath and I highly recommend this product anyone that has long Covid or in the vaccine. – Estela M.
Charles Schwab, HSBC, MUFG, PayPal, Santander, Standard Chartered, Western Union. House Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Federal Government led by top Republican Jim Jordan, R-Ohio investigates
‘A new report reveals that there are now at least 13 banking institutions that were recruited by the Biden administration to spy on customers, without warrants, in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
And some of them did the bidding and turned over private customer information to the feds.
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
It is the Daily Mail that said in addition to the alleged involvement of Bank of America, Chase, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Citi Bank and Truist in the illicit spying, seven others now have been implicated.
They are Charles Schwab, HSBC, MUFG, PayPal, Santander, Standard Chartered and Western Union.
Those all are being investigated by the U.S. House “for colluding with the federal government to spy on Americans” after the protest that turned into a riot, the report said.
It is the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, led by Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, that is investigating the alleged collusion.
The report explained the situation was that the Biden bureaucrats conspired with banks to look for indicators of “extremism,” “like the purchase of a religious text, like a Bible, or searches including the terms ‘MAGA’ and ‘TRUMP,'” the report confirmed.
The banking corporations apparently all were contacted by the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) or FBI about spying on Americans’ private banking actions – without any charges or warrant involved.
Those institutions now have been contacted by Congress in letters that state, “The Committee and Select Subcommittee remain concerned about how and to what extent federal law enforcement and financial institutions continue to spy on Americans by weaponizing backdoor information sharing and casting sprawling classes of transactions, purchase behavior, and protected political or religious expression as potentially ‘suspicious’ or indicative of ‘extremism.'”
Jordan also told Biden’s Treasury pick, Janet Yellen, “This kind of warrantless financial surveillance raises serious concerns about the federal government’s respect for Americans’ privacy and fundamental civil liberties,” the publication reported.
Records uncovered by investigators already show that FinCEN and the FBI got data on hundreds of individuals as a result of work with just one of the banks.
Yellen was warned, in the letter, “Given this coordination, the Committee and Select Subcommittee are concerned that the federal government, through the FBI and FinCEN, sent similar or identical thresholds to other financial institutions that manipulated the SAR filing process to elicit the information and transaction history of individuals without any allegation of federal criminal conduct.”
The FBI ended up dispatching agents to investigate some of those identified.
House investigators also have charged the Biden administration “urged” crowdfunding platforms to search their own customers’ records, the report said.’
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Cardiologists investigating the sudden heart attack of a “healthy” 29-year-old have concluded that the Covid mRNA vaccine she was forced to take for her job is the cause of her cardiac failure.
Bombshell new evidence has emerged that reveals President Donald Trump appears to have been set up in the classified documents case led by Special Prosecutor Jack Smith.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s “hush money” case against President Donald Trump is “meritless” and based on “dubious claims,” a top legal expert has warned.
Legal experts have weighed in on the “truly insane” “evidence” produced by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in the Democrat prosecutor’s so-called “hush money” case against President Donald Trump.
Washington State’s Supreme Court has upheld a ban on high-capacity magazines after it was previously determined to be unconstitutional, according to reports.
Supreme Court justices have spelled doom for Jack Smith as the special counsel’s 2020 election case against President Donald Trump appears to be crumbling.
Alert: Trump Exposes Biden’s 2024 Election PlantIn a sequence of three social media updates on Friday evening, President Donald Trump initiated what was described by a news outlet as “his most significant assault to date” on independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0723 UP .0008
USA/ YEN 156.99 UP 1.73 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2534 UP .0015
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3683 UP .0016 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 16BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.22PTS OR 0.28%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 16.12 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.32%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 16.12 PTS OR 0.09%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN8.22 PTS OR 0.28%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.32%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 420.90 PTS OR 1.24%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2312.00
silver:$26.45
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.84 UP 19 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The final day of April was really ugly: ECI way hotter than expected (spooked markets), Case-Shiller home prices soared far more than expected (spooked markets more), Chicago PMI puked (while prices paid increased), Consumer Confidence crashed, and Dallas Fed Services slumped… all of which left stocks, bonds, gold, crude oil, and bitcoin all languishing into month-end while the dollar rallied.
Stocks puked into the month-end close today ahead of AMZN earnings…
April was a disaster from a macro perspective…
Source: Bloomberg
…with soft survey data collapsing while ‘hard’ data limped modestly higher…
Source: Bloomberg
…and worse still growth surprises slumped as inflation surprises soared – screaming stagflation so loud no one could ignore it…
Source: Bloomberg
Against the backdrop of US 10Y yields up ~45 bps in the month of April…
Source: Bloomberg
… and the market taking another rate-cut off the board…
Source: Bloomberg
…price action in April is perhaps not overly surprising with Equities broadly lower, albeit, with NDX / Quality / Mag7 continuing to outperform.
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s Peter Callahan notes that since 2006, the S&P 500 has fallen by an avg of 4% when real yields rose by more than 2 stdev in a month.
April was the first down-month for stocks since The Fed Pivot (Oct 2023). This was the worst month for The Dow since Sept 2022. Nasdaq suffered its worst month since Sept 2023.
Interestingly, while US majors and sectors were red (broadly speaking) in April, Chinese Internet stocks soared back to life (+9.5% vs US MegaCap -2%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Sectors were very mixed in April with Energy and Utilities outperforming (the latter on AI energy use, since its typical relationship to rates decoupled) and Real Estate lagged (along with Tech)…
Source: Bloomberg
The basket of Magnificent 7 stocks saw red in April for its first monthly loss since October and worst monthly loss since September. The last week has been tempestuous to say the least as TSLA (win), META (lose), MSFT and GOOGL (win) all hit…
Source: Bloomberg
Still, stocks have a long way to catch down to the new reality priced into the short-end of the bond market…
Source: Bloomberg
As we noted above, the TSY curve was up relatively uniformly on the month, but perhaps most notably was the 2Y yield which tested 5.00% numerous times and broke out today…
Source: Bloomberg
One more notable event in April was the tightening of financial conditions (admittedly only marginally), but definitely more what The Fed wants relative to the extreme ‘easiness’ that had been priced in after Powell’s pivot…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the fourth month in a row with the big gains coming mid-month….
Source: Bloomberg
Despite taking a battering today, Gold managed solid gains on the month, topping $2400 at its record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended the month marginally lower, thanks to today’s selloff…
Source: Bloomberg
Copper was the outstanding commodity in April, soaring around 14% to two year highs with practically no drawdown as the reflation trade came back to life (on the back of AI demand)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin had an ugly month, down 15% after seven straight months of gains…
Source: Bloomberg
As BTC ETF flows started to ebb – Net Flows (including GBTC): April -$183mm, March +$4.62bn, February +$6.03bn, January +1.47bn…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the ultimate analog remains in play…
Source: Bloomberg
…with NVDA bouncing back, just like CSCO did.
And bear in mind, as Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer points out, US equity market valuation is currently at an extreme level relative to history…
…also a condition that typically means higher rates weigh more heavily on stocks.
And while April showers are over…
The S&P 500’s vol term structure suggests the storm is not over yet.
END
MORNING TRADING/
Stocks & Bonds Slammed After Unionized & Govt Workers Send Employment Costs Soaring In Q1
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 08:43 AM
Highlighting just how sensitive the market is to any ‘inflation/deflation’ narrative questions, the Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) – a data point that is typically of secondary import – printed hotter than expected this morning and sent markets reeling.
The ECI rose from +0.9% QoQ in Q4 to +1.2% QoQ in Q1 (well above the +1.0% QoQ expected). That is the biggest QoQ jump in a year…
That was higher than the highest forecast…
Which leaves the civilian worker ECI up 4.2% YoY, stalling the disinflationary path it had been on…
And guess who is to blame for the rise in employment costs! The Government, where compensation is up 4.8% YoY (re-accelerating back near its fastest in history)…
And unionized service workers are seeing their wages soar at a record pace while non-unionized manufacturing workers are seeing wage growth slowing…
In other words, persistent wage pressures are keeping inflation elevated.
This sent stocks tumbling lower…
…and Treasury yields higher…
Just add this data point to the ‘the disinflation narrative is dead’ side of the ledger.
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
the important Chicago PMI manufacturing sector screams high inflation with no growth
(zerohedge)
Fastest Drop Since ‘Lehman’: Chicago PMI Puke Screams Stagflation
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 09:59 AM
After miraculously surging to two years highs in Nov 2023, Chicago PMI has plunged for five straight months, with the last four months seeing the MoM declines accelerating. Against expectations of a rise to 45.0 (from March’s 41.4), April’s PMI data printed 37.9
Source: Bloomberg
That is the worst five-month collapse since Lehman…
Source: Bloomberg
More problematically – the underlying data screams stagflation:
Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
All of which leaves ‘hope’ languishing at ‘Bidenomics’-cycle lows…
Source: Bloomberg
END
Home prices rising hugely mainly due to inflation. How will Powell cut rates with home prices so high
(zerohedge)
‘Affordability Crisis’ Worsens As US Home Prices Soar Near Record High In Feb
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 09:13 AM
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 13th straight month in February (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up a massive 0.61% MoM (massively more than the 0.1% exp).
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed the YoY price up a stunning 7.29% (far otter than the 6.70% exp). That is the fastest price rise since Oct 2022.
“Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty,” according to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“Our National Composite rose by 6.4% in February, the fastest annual rate since November 2022.”
San Diego is back at the top, with home prices rising double-digits…
Source: Bloomberg
Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it’s hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates, but with rates remaining above 7%, it seems hard to believe prices can continue their advance…
Source: Bloomberg
…but home prices are still tightly correlated with Fed Reserves…
Source: Bloomberg
…and median new home prices remain notably decoupled, with Case-Shiller’s data back near record highs…
How is Powell going to cut rates when home prices are rising at over y% per year?
end
New Biden Energy Rules Will Raise The Cost Of A New Home By $31,000
The Department of Housing and Urban Development is mandating costly new energy standards for new homes insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which will become de facto nationwide building codes.
HUD last Thursday announced that it will require new homes financed or insured by its subsidy programs to follow the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code standard.
Many governments have declined to adopt the 2021 standards because of their higher costs. The National Association of Home Builders says the energy rules can add as much as $31,000 to the price of a new home. It can take up to 90 years for a buyer to realize a payback on the higher up-front costs through lower energy bills.
Not to worry, HUD says taxpayers will help cover the cost. It “is anticipated that many builders will take advantage” of numerous tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act “as well as rebates that will become available in 2025 or earlier for electric heat pumps and other building electrification measures,” the rule says.
These incentives include a $5,000 per unit tax credit for “zero energy” multifamily construction that meets prevailing-wage requirements that also raise building costs. HUD adds that builders may also “take advantage of certain EPA Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund programs, especially the Solar for All initiative” and an investment tax credit that can offset 50% of a solar project’s cost.
Even with the subsidies, HUD estimates the price of a new home will go up by $7,229.
You get a $5,000 credit but only if the builder pays union wages for everything. How much will that cost?
My general rule of thumb is to take government estimates and triple them. That’s for short projects like building a home. But 10x would not be surprising. And this is with subsidies.
Generational Homeownership Rates
Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower than the home ownership rate of millennials.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
Case-Shiller, OER and CPI data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high. Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.50 percent
Young voters propelled Biden over the top in 2020. Things look very different today. Many voters who do not like either Trump or Biden will sit this election out
The Department of Housing and Urban Development is mandating costly new energy standards for new homes insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which will become de facto nationwide building codes.
HUD last Thursday announced that it will require new homes financed or insured by its subsidy programs to follow the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code standard.
Many governments have declined to adopt the 2021 standards because of their higher costs. The National Association of Home Builders says the energy rules can add as much as $31,000 to the price of a new home. It can take up to 90 years for a buyer to realize a payback on the higher up-front costs through lower energy bills.
Not to worry, HUD says taxpayers will help cover the cost. It “is anticipated that many builders will take advantage” of numerous tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act “as well as rebates that will become available in 2025 or earlier for electric heat pumps and other building electrification measures,” the rule says.
These incentives include a $5,000 per unit tax credit for “zero energy” multifamily construction that meets prevailing-wage requirements that also raise building costs. HUD adds that builders may also “take advantage of certain EPA Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund programs, especially the Solar for All initiative” and an investment tax credit that can offset 50% of a solar project’s cost.
Even with the subsidies, HUD estimates the price of a new home will go up by $7,229.
You get a $5,000 credit but only if the builder pays union wages for everything. How much will that cost?
My general rule of thumb is to take government estimates and triple them. That’s for short projects like building a home. But 10x would not be surprising. And this is with subsidies.
Generational Homeownership Rates
Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower than the home ownership rate of millennials.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
Case-Shiller, OER and CPI data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high. Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.50 percent
Young voters propelled Biden over the top in 2020. Things look very different today. Many voters who do not like either Trump or Biden will sit this election ou
Consumer confidence crumbles!!
(zerohedge)
‘Expectations’ Plunge To 11-Year-Lows As Conference Board Confidence Craters
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 10:20 AM
For the third straight month, The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in April, tumbling to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 103.1 (dramatically below the 104.0 median expectation and in fact below the lowest of all 56 analysts’ estimates). Both current conditions and expectations plunged, with the latter at its weakest since
Present situation confidence fell to 142.9 vs. 146.8 last month
Consumer confidence expectations fell to 66.4 vs. 74.0 last month
Expectations are back to Summer 2022 lows, which are equal to April 2013 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Most notably, this is the sixth straight month of downward revisions…
Source: Bloomberg
That is 14.6pts of confidence erased in six months… to which we ask – in all honesty – WTF is a ‘revised’ sentiment measure? How do you feel now about how you felt a month ago?
The Board’s labor market indicator trended notably weaker…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, fewer of those surveyed believe stock prices will be higher and interests lower…
Source: Bloomberg
All things considered, that survey was a shitshow for Bidenomics… but remember, you’ve never had it so good…
WATCH: Nancy Pelosi nearly has a seizure on-air when Katy Tur gently reminds her of the reality that Biden’s “record” job gains are just because of massive Cov*d job losses in blue states
WATCH: Nancy Pelosi nearly has a seizure on-air when Katy Tur gently reminds her of the reality that Biden's "record" job gains are just because of massive Cov*d job losses in blue states 👀pic.twitter.com/oI0b6NcjII
Panic strikes as Dallas Fed services PMI suffers its longest slump since 2008
(zerohedge)
“On The Verge Of Panic” – Dallas Fed Services Survey Suffers Longest Slump Since ‘Lehman’
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 11:21 AM
It has been a terrible day for ‘soft’ survey data…
Source: Bloomberg
And it was just capped off by a big drop in Dallas Fed’s Services survey (which compliments yesterday’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing meltdown). The headline print dropped from -5.5 to -10.6. That is the 23rd straight month of contraction in the survey (one more month equals the span of contraction around Lehman’s collapse)…
Looking ahead, the picture was an ugly stagflationary one with revenue expected to grow slower and prices expected to rise faster…
With General Business Activity expected to decline (the first time since Nov 2023)…
But, just like the Manufacturing survey, it is the respondents answers that tell us the most about what is really occurring in America…
Inflationary pain…
We repair long-haul trucks. The volume just keeps going down, which means everyone is holding back on repairs, so we have no work. Inflation keeps driving our costs up. It’s not looking pretty for trucking.
Persistent inflation and the Fed potentially delaying rate cuts are causing uncertainty for the second half of 2024.
Continued high interest rates, inflation and general economic malaise has caused employers to be very reluctant to hire professional level talent. They may replace talent if they have attrition, but in general, they are very slow to make any new hire decisions.
Political and geopolitical Uncertainty is weighing on many firms:
The impact of the higher rate environment seems to be catching up, with general purchase intent among customers flattening out. At the same time, budget cuts and political uncertainty have impacted our public sector business as well, creating additional uncertainty across our business.
The stress of an election year adds to the concern citizens have about the direction of our economy.
We are still worried about the election causing uncertainty in our clients and prompting a slowdown later this year. Some clients are still worried about inflation and are stalling projects because of the volatility in the supply market. Overall, it is tough to make any forecast right now. Our backlog is strong for the next couple of months, but not as far in the future as we would like.
The intensity of international conflict and increasing long-term rates certainly raise concerns.
Geopolitical tensions are creating an uncertain environment. Also, upcoming elections and how this may affect the Fed’s monetary policy is a concern.
Too much regulation…
Burdensome federal regulations are increasing the cost to do business, such as the so-called “Corporate Transparency Act” and minimum wage increases that just continue to drive inflation.
Overregulation takes away a lot of time and money.
Rates are too damn high…
We recently renegotiated our $600 million debt facility. Our cost of funds went from 9 percent to 14 percent—that’s a pretty big hit to our bottom line and resulted in us increasing prices to our customers. Our business focus has been on forecasted easing; however, the reality of rates staying higher longer is creating uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve signaling it will hold the rate at the current level for longer has affected our outlook negatively.
Recent movement in long-term rates, combined with the Fed holding rates longer, have delayed the expected value of investment recovery until 2025 or later.
The increase in treasury yields since last fall has negatively impacted deal-making activity in the income property industry
Cost of capital is weighing on our customers and decreasing volume.
High interest rates have drastically hindered our ability to grow our business, and it looks like a rate cut is not likely happening in 2024.
And finally, there’s panic in the air…
We are a construction machinery and material handling dealership. Our business in the first quarter of 2024 was down 2 percent, and the industry was down 12.3 percent. Our manufacturing clients seem almost on the verge of panic, and there is stuff in inventory. We need a guest-worker program to meet our skilled-labor needs long term.
We have not been this slow since the Great Recession. This includes Covid. We cannot understate how terrible the prospective real estate market is. People are not filing zoning cases, meaning in two years there will not be construction. Volumes have gone down in the automotive industry. It seems they are beginning to turn around, so we’re hoping.
But, but, but… “Bidenomics!”
END
Want To Know What Is Really Going On In Biden’s Economy, Read This
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 02:25 PM
One can listen to, and believe, the government’s lies about the miraculous growth of the economy and the stellar job that Bidenomics is doing… or one can listen to the truth straight from the countless small companies that make up the economy. We prefer the latter, which is why we love the monthly responses to the Dallas Fed survey, where unlike the other regional Feds, the respondents actually get a fair forum.
We repair long-haul trucks. The volume just keeps going down, which means everyone is holding back on repairs, so we have no work. Inflation keeps driving our costs up. It’s not looking pretty for trucking.
Support activities for transportation
We are seeing an uptick in rates and activity. The excess capacity slowly bleeding out of the market is causing this.
Publishing industries (except internet)
Momentum is still based on intuitive smarter software revisions. Commercial interest is also finally increasing with better relationship contacts to speed credible traction and interest for adoption going forward. We are more focused now on marketing and sales.
The impact of the higher rate environment seems to be catching up, with general purchase intent among customers flattening out. At the same time, budget cuts and political uncertainty have impacted our public sector business as well, creating additional uncertainty across our business.
Credit intermediation and related activities
The stress of an election year adds to the concern citizens have about the direction of our economy.
We recently renegotiated our $600 million debt facility. Our cost of funds went from 9 percent to 14 percent—that’s a pretty big hit to our bottom line and resulted in us increasing prices to our customers. Our business focus has been on forecasted easing; however, the reality of rates staying higher longer is creating uncertainty.
Commercial real estate transactions are down by 70-80 percent according to the brokers we talk to, and our loan origination volume reflects that as well. Borrowers are concerned about future business prospects. We recently had a client decide not to take a loan to refinance a warehouse used in their business because they were concerned about their future business prospects. At the same time, the cost of everything we buy, from paper to electricity, is rising.
The Federal Reserve signaling it will hold the rate at the current level for longer has affected our outlook negatively. One of our biggest issues with inflation is the cost of housing. These high rates do not help that, and prices of everything else are not declining or remaining stable.
Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities
Recent movement in long-term rates, combined with the Fed holding rates longer, have delayed the expected value of investment recovery until 2025 or later.
Insurance carriers and related activities
We are recruiting experienced insurance professionals, and there is a small pool to draw from, unfortunately. We will keep looking.
Property insurance and affordability are slowing our growth opportunities.
Real estate
The increase in treasury yields since last fall has negatively impacted deal-making activity in the income property industry
We are a real estate broker company and we have about 350 agents. They are independent agents not salaried employees. Our business slows during election years, and high interest rates have hurt first-time buyers.
Cost of capital is weighing on our customers and decreasing volume.
Rental and leasing services
We are a construction machinery and material handling dealership. Our business in the first quarter of 2024 was down 2 percent, and the industry was down 12.3 percent. Our manufacturing clients seem almost on the verge of panic, and there is stuff in inventory. We need a guest-worker program to meet our skilled-labor needs long term.
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Persistent inflation and the Fed potentially delaying rate cuts are causing uncertainty for the second half of 2024.
We are still worried about the election causing uncertainty in our clients and prompting a slowdown later this year. Some clients are still worried about inflation and are stalling projects because of the volatility in the supply market. Overall, it is tough to make any forecast right now. Our backlog is strong for the next couple of months, but not as far in the future as we would like.
The market was slower in the first quarter, but it is now in recovery.
We are increasingly seeing small professional firms shrinking or simply closing up shop. The labor shortage is a major reason for giving up the fight. There’s plenty of demand for professional services, but there is not enough trained staff. Retaining staff is a major headache. Owners nearing retirement are giving it up sooner rather than later.
Burdensome federal regulations are increasing the cost to do business, such as the so-called “Corporate Transparency Act” and minimum wage increases that just continue to drive inflation.
General outlook has improved primarily due to our increased investment in marketing and an increase in general business activity.
We see a slight uptick in transactional matters.
Trying to factor in how remote-work scheduling impacts the need for space and resources is challenging.
Competitive labor market remains; it’s harder to recruit great talent; health insurance is increasing.
We have not been this slow since the Great Recession. This includes Covid. We cannot understate how terrible the prospective real estate market is. People are not filing zoning cases, meaning in two years there will not be construction. Volumes have gone down in the automotive industry. It seems they are beginning to turn around, so we’re hoping.
This real estate market is hard to figure out. With the 10-year rate still moving in the wrong direction, and the likelihood of a rate cut not coming this year due to inflation and the strength of the economy, we just can’t see the market improving until next year.
The Fed is now unlikely to cut interest rates; concerns over recession continue.
Management of companies and enterprises
Overregulation takes away a lot of time and money.
Administrative and support services
Continued high interest rates, inflation and general economic malaise has caused employers to be very reluctant to hire professional level talent. They may replace talent if they have attrition, but in general, they are very slow to make any new hire decisions.
There has been a marked decline in requests for quotes for the month. This decline does not fit in our normal seasonal changes.
The intensity of international conflict and increasing long-term rates certainly raise concerns.
Geopolitical tensions are creating an uncertain environment. Also, upcoming elections and how this may affect the Fed’s monetary policy is a concern.
High interest rates have drastically hindered our ability to grow our business, and it looks like a rate cut is not likely happening in 2024.
Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Accommodation
Between increasing inflation, high interest rates and instability in the Middle East, we are growing more concerned that the upcoming summer travel season will be depressed compared to prior years.
March 2024 is viewed as a contradiction in that we had several areas perform at or close to expectations and others that were far below. That seems to be the same in April. Difficult to understand what is happening.
Food services and drinking places
The stalled return to office and the decline of weekday business travel to downtown remain drags on revenue. We see a softening in other meal periods, and we believe it is due to the increase in menu prices. Hiring experienced staff with knowledge remains very difficult. Where did seasoned workers go? Cost of goods sold continues to increase.
We are still hanging on by a thread after closing one business last month.
The energy sector continues to be strong, which positively affects my business. Midland continues to attract a younger population.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
The margin on new vehicles sold per unit declined 50 percent year over year in March 2024, which was a direct benefit to the consumer.
We are continuing to see labor shortages in the workforce and a lack of effort to pursue the positions available from those applicants responding to open positions.
Electronics and appliance stores
Building activity is down still and looks to be getting worse.
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Major Dollar Tree Warehouse Demolished By Tornado, May Spark Supply Chain Chaos
MONDAY, APR 29, 2024 – 10:00 PM
A tornado outbreak on Saturday night across southern Oklahoma decimated a major distribution center for budget retailer Dollar Tree. The facility supplies stores across the Oklahoma-Texas area, plus other surrounding states, which may spark supply chain issues.
Professional storm chaser Aaron Rigsby posted several aerial images of the Dollar Tree distribution center in the Marietta area on X. The photos show the damage left behind after a tornado ripped through the center of the massive warehouse.
Images from Marietta, OK Tornado. Would appear as if cars and semis were tossed off the interstate last night next to the Dollar Tree DC that was impressively shredded to bits. #OKwx
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Another storm chaser, Brandon Clement, posted an up-close drone video of the wreckage, showing millions of products that won’t arrive on store shelves anytime soon.
A tornado hit Matietta, OK. Destroying the Family Dollar Distribution center. It also hit a Dollar store, hospital and flipped cars and semis on I-35. #Tornado#Damage#OKWX#Oklahoma#WXTwitter
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Marietta is located in Love County. The country’s sheriff’s office posted on Facebook that “power lines everywhere and buildings have been destroyed.”
“Significant damage to dollar tree warehouse, homeland, dollar general, nursing home, and part of the hospital,” the sheriff’s office said.
With the Marietta distribution center offline, this may spark significant disruptions in the supply of goods to stores located in Texas, Oklahoma, and surrounding states.
Dollar Tree operates 25 distribution centers nationwide, serving over 15,500 stores.
There is no official statement from the company specifying supply chain impacts.
With the state facing a record-high budget deficit, tax collections are failing to meet California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s budget proposal projections, which could put further pressure on the state’s finances.
As of April 25, the state’s franchise tax board is showing personal income tax collections on track to approximately match estimates for the month.
However, corporate tax revenues of $4.16 billion equate to more than $500 million below forecasts for the month and are off by $1.4 billion for the fiscal year.
Some economists point to disruptions in the technology industry—with thousands of California jobs slashed across several companies in recent months—as a contributing factor in declining corporate and personal income taxes.
“The loss of tech jobs has also hurt California’s public finances, which have grown heavily dependent on Silicon Valley,” Joseph Politano, independent writer for online data and economy newsletter Apricitas Economics, posted April 14 on Substack. “It will mean less future potential revenue—forcing the state to raise tax rates or pare back spending on investment, social services, and more.”
Sales and use taxes are also driving the shortfall, missing estimates by $1 billion since November.
In March, such receipts came in $653 million below forecast, which the finance department said, “reflect ongoing weakness in taxable sales.”
Data analysts blamed inflation and high-interest rates, in part, for the lackluster sales tax collections, as cash-strapped consumers are managing their finances by reducing spending on some items.
“This decline reflects consumer challenges balancing higher prices and financing costs with essential household needs,” Andy Nickerson, president and CEO of HdL Companies—a data and consulting services provider for local governments—said in an April 16 tax report summary. “As the Federal Reserve considers a delay in softening rates, [we anticipate] consumer spending may continue to stagnate, delaying a return to normal historical growth trends in 2024.”
Cumulative March tax receipts came in $243 million below estimates and contributed to a $5.8 billion shortfall since November—representing a 4 percent miss—according to a recently released report from the state’s Department of Finance.
While personal income tax receipts exceeded expectations in March, estimated payments since November were down $4.7 billion, suggesting weakness in tax collections for the 2023 tax year, the finance department reported.
With the income tax due date of April 15, more details will be available in the first week of May once calculations are complete. Preliminary information from the state’s controller’s office suggests the governor’s estimate could be $6 billion or more higher than actual revenues collected.
While Mr. Newsom’s January proposal was based on forecasts, a revision due in May will be able to incorporate receipts received, which should provide more clarity.
“All of these results suggest that April revenues, in the aggregate, may come in several hundred million dollars below monthly estimates,” Jason Sisney, budget director for Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, said in a Substack post April 25. “It is virtually certain that the May Revision will downgrade revenue projections from those the Governor released in January.”
Mr. Newsom is expected to provide the revision on or before the May 14 deadline.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office predicted earlier this year after weak tax collections in January that revenues would miss the governor’s estimates by about $16 billion for the 2023–2024 fiscal year and another $9 billion for 2024–2025.
But following personal income tax revenues in February and March that were closer to estimate, Mr. Sisney believes the shortfall will not be as large as the analyst’s office suggested.
“Based on revenue trends to date … it is difficult for me to see revenues dropping quite that much,” he said.
Disparities in estimates between the governor and the analyst’s office have existed since January regarding the severity of the budget deficit.
Mr. Newsom estimates a $38 billion shortfall, while analysts forecast a $73 billion gap in funding. Some of the differences lie in the governor’s calculation of solutions proposed, which the analyst’s office says accounts for about $20 billion of the discrepancy.
With the numbers in flux, lawmakers and policy experts are awaiting final totals so that budget proposals can be debated in earnest.
Mr. Newsom recently approved a “budget bill junior” crafted by Democratic lawmakers as an early action plan to address a portion of the deficit.
Approximately $17 billion to chip away at the deficit—including deferrals, delays, borrowing, and some $3.6 billion cuts—primarily to one-time funding—were enacted by his signing of Assembly Bill 106 on April 15.
end
STUPID!
Have Fun Staying Poor: Washington Announces $45 Million Subsidy For Low Income Families To Buy EVs
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, APR 29, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Just when you thought you’ve already witnessed a lifetime’s worth of examples of the government being excellent capital allocators with your tax money, one more shining example comes along.
Last week it was reported that Washington Governor Jay Inslee has announced $45 million worth of subsidies that is going to allow “low income” families to purchase an electric vehicle.
The initiative offers families the opportunity to receive financial assistance for either leasing or purchasing electric vehicles, with up to $9,000 allocated for leasing and $5,000 for purchasing, according to Must Read Alaska.
he program is open to individuals earning 300% or less of the federal poverty level and extends to both new and used EVs. Approximately 9,000 people can benefit from the grant, with the potential for either 9,000 individuals to opt for the $5,000 deal or 5,000 individuals for the $9,000 option.
“Washingtonians really get it when it comes to electric vehicles,” Inslee said at a press conference last week.
Governor Inslee characterized the initiative as a means to “democratize EVs,” emphasizing a broader goal of advancing the electrification of transportation. He expressed optimism about widespread adoption, anticipating significant participation and benefit from the program.
However, the program has faced criticism, notably from Washington Policy Center Environmental Director Todd Myers. Myers contends that the subsidies fail to effectively curb carbon emissions and represent a misallocation of taxpayer funds that could be better utilized for other environmental priorities like (we swear we are not making this up) salmon recovery.
Hey Todd, two wrongs don’t make a right! But we digress. Despite the controversy, the grant funds are slated to become available to eligible low-income residents in August.
Myers wrote in a blog post: “This is one more example of how wasteful and ineffective Washington’s climate policy is.”
He continued: “It also reveals the disingenuousness of claiming that climate change is an ‘existential crisis’ while wasting tens of millions of dollars on projects that do nothing to address that crisis.”
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
Columbia starts suspending students who defied deadline to leave anti-Israel encampment
Columbia University faculty and staff gather on the campus in solidarity with student protesters who are demonstrating against the university’s investments in Israel, April 29, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah)
Student demonstrators at Columbia University, the epicenter of pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel protests that have erupted at US colleges, have begun to be suspended after defying an ultimatum to disperse.
Authorities at the prestigious university in New York demanded that the protest encampment be cleared by 2:00 p.m. local time, or students would face disciplinary action.
“These repulsive scare tactics mean nothing compared to the deaths of over 34,000 Palestinians,” said a statement, read out by a student — who would not give his name — at a press conference after the deadline, quoting an unverified Hamas-issued toll. “We will not move until Columbia meets our demands or… are moved by force.”
few hours later, Columbia vice president of communications Ben Chang says the university has “begun suspending students as part of this next phase of our efforts to ensure safety on our campus.”
He says the students have been warned they will be “placed on suspension, ineligible to complete the semester or graduate, and will be restricted from all academic, residential and recreational spaces.”
END
Columbia Student Protesters Break Into, Barricade Themselves Into Building After Deadline To Disperse Passes
Dozens of Columbia University students broke into Hamilton Hall on the New York campus early Tuesday and barricaded themselves inside, hours after the school began suspending students who violated a deadline to disperse from a pro-Palestinian encampment.
“The safety of every single member of this community is paramount,” said Ben Chang, vice president for communications at Columbia University, in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, adding “In light of the protest activity, we have asked members of the University community who can avoid coming to the Morningside campus to do so; essential personnel should report to work according to university policy.”
As the Epoch Times‘ Katabella Roberts notes further; According to The New York Times, the students began occupying the hall at around 12:35 a.m.
The protesters linked arms and blocked off the main entrance to the building at the Ivy League institution after previously marching around campus to chants of “free Palestine,” according to the publication.
A statement shared on the social media platform Instagram by student groups said the protesters had “taken matters into their own hands,” and would remain in the building until the university “divests from death.” Protesters have been urging the university to pause its investments in companies that, they claim, are profiting from Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
The statement included video footage that appeared to show the students carrying metal barricades into Hamilton Hall as other students cheered them on.
“This escalation is in line with the historical student movements of 1968, 1985, and 1996 which Columbia repressed then and celebrates now,” the statement read. “This action will force the university to confront the blood on its hands.”
In the statement, the student group further accused the university of having been “complicit” in “Israel’s ongoing genocidal assault on the Gaza strip” for the past seven months.“The students are on the right side of history,” the statement continued. “We know that the university will remember them as anti-apartheid, anti-genocide activists with moral clarity.”
Protesters Make Demands
According to Politico, protesters hung a sign reading “intifada,” which is Arabic for uprising, from the front of the building.
A spokesperson for the New York Police Department told Politico that law enforcement officers were outside the university campus as of Tuesday; however, they declined to elaborate further on exactly how many officers were on site or whether they had authorization to enter the school grounds.
The Epoch Times has contacted a spokesperson at Columbia University and the New York Police Department for further comment.
The takeover of Hamilton Hall occurred just hours after the university confirmed that it had begun suspending some students. The pro-Palestinian students failed to disband before Monday’s 2 p.m. deadline.
Students have occupied the lawn in the middle of campus—in which graduation ceremonies are scheduled to take place for roughly 15,000 students on May 15—for nearly two weeks while calling on the university to disclose and divest from any of its financial ties to Israel.
They are also calling for an end to alleged “land grabs” in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City and Palestine, no more policing on the university campus, and no academic ties with Israeli universities.
However, negotiations between university officials and student protest leaders broke down earlier in the day when the university rejected their demands, prompting officials to issue the 2 p.m. deadline.In a statement, Minouche Shafik, Columbia’s president, said that ultimately, the university will not divest from Israel, adding that the school is committed to maintaining its core principles and shared values, which include ensuring no students suffer from harassment and discrimination and no anti-Semitic language is used.
“Both sides in these discussions put forward robust and thoughtful offers and worked in good faith to reach common ground,” Ms. Shafik said. “We thank them all for their diligent work, long hours, and careful effort and wish they had reached a different outcome.”
While the University will not divest from Israel, it has offered to “develop an expedited timeline for review of new proposals from the students by the Advisory Committee for Socially Responsible Investing, the body that considers divestment matters,” Ms. Shafik noted.
“The University also offered to publish a process for students to access a list of Columbia’s direct investment holdings, and to increase the frequency of updates to that list of holdings,” she added.
Ben Chang, vice president for communications at Columbia University, confirmed the suspensions had begun in a press conference late Monday, USA Today reports.
He added that students had been notified in advance that they would face disciplinary action, including suspension if they did not vacate the encampment by 2 p.m. ET and sign a form committing to abide by student politics until either June 30, 2025, or until their graduation, whichever came first.
The site of the protests has created an unwelcoming environment for many Jewish students and faculty members, he said. It has also been a source of loud noise.
“We’ve been suspending students as part of this next phase of our efforts to ensure safety on campus,” Mr. Chang said.
Mr. Chang did not provide further details regarding how many students from Columbia and its affiliate Barnard College have been disciplined. However, he confirmed that those suspended would not be able to finish the semester or graduate, Axios reports.
They will also be banned from entering any campus housing or academic buildings, he added.
Juliette Fairley contributed to this report.
Just what the USA needs; more migrants from the middle east
(zerohedge)
$3.5 Billion Slipped Into Ukraine-Israel Aid Bill To ‘Supercharge Mass Migration From The Middle East’
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Tucked away in the $95 billion military aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is a $3.5 billion slush fund to open new processing centers for Muslim migrants, in what Sen. Eric Schmitt described as a bid to “supercharge mass migration from the Middle East.“
The $3.5 billion was granted to the Department of State, which works with many international groups that feed and transport migrants on their way to the United States.
Biden’s deputies are now using the refugee programs as an adjunct to their diversity-expanding “equity” migration policy. For example, Biden’s deputies used the program in March to import 3,009 migrants from the safe and democratic countries of El Salvador and Guatemala.
They are also using the refugee funds to expand migration routes from many African and Muslim countries. In March, they pulled in 12,018 people from the Congo, plus 16,732 migrants from the Muslim countries of Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq, and Eritrea, according to a report by Stacker.com. -Breitbart
Not only did the “Foreign Aid” package do nothing to secure our own border it included $3.5 Billion to supercharge mass migration from the Middle East.
Quote
Ian Miles Cheong
@stillgray
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Apr 24
Open borders? No problem. The Biden administration is setting up two new international field offices in Qatar and Turkey to facilitate the mass migration of refugees and economic migrants from the Middle East and the near-Middle East to resettle them throughout American cities.…
Tucked into the folds of the new foreign aid package is $3.5 billion for mass immigration NGOs. America Last Republicans voted to supercharge mass immigration while approving ZERO $$ for the U.S. border.
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According to an April 23 release from the Biden DHS visa-granting agency, “The Biden-Harris administration set the refugee admissions ceiling for fiscal year 2024 at 125,000 refugees,” adding “With the opening of the Doha Field Office on May 7, 2024, and the Ankara Field Office on May 9, 2024, USCIS will have 11 international field offices. Other international field offices include Beijing; Guangzhou, China; Guatemala City; Havana; Mexico City; Nairobi, Kenya; New Delhi; San Salvador, El Salvador; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras.”
So – we have the US government encouraging migration, both legal and illegal – which hurts low-income Americans the most, while neglecting to the borders. Seems we’ve learned nothing from Europe.
Do not believe the White House/mainstream media-concocted narrative that the four criminal court cases – prosecuted by Alvin Bragg, Letitia James, Jack Smith, and Fani Willis – were not in part coordinated, synchronized, and timed to reach their courtroom psychodramatic finales right during the 2024 campaign season.
These local, state, and federal Lilliputian agendas were designed to tie down, gag, confine, bankrupt, and destroy Trump psychologically and physically. They are the final lawfare denouement to years of extra-legal efforts to emasculate him.
Indeed, the nation is by now worn out by these serial assaults on constitutional norms: the Hillary-funded Steele dossier subterfuge; the pre-election Russian laptop disinformation campaign; the two impeachments without special counsel reports; the impeachment Senate trial of a private citizen; the effort to remove Trump’s name from state ballots; the ongoing attempt to emasculate the Electoral College; or the radical opportune changes in state election laws to ensure massive mail-in balloting.
Recently, Andrew McCarthy has reviewed in depth this coordination between White House personnel and prosecutors, long known and long denied by the left.
Biden, for example, had complained to aides about Attorney General Merrick Garland’s tardiness in getting special federal prosecutor Smith appointed – and thus apparently ensuring Trump was convicted before the election.
Nathan Wade, Fani Willis’s now-fired paramour prosecutor, visited and consulted with the White House counsel’s office when he was acting supposedly as a purely local county prosecutor. The January 6th left-wing-dominated congressional committee consulted with the Biden administration in sending forth its criminal referrals about Trump’s purported role in the protests. And to handle his pseudo-indictment against Trump, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg hired Biden Justice Department official Vincent Colangeio.
Two, the prosecutors’ delayed criminal indictments and E. Jean Carroll’s civil suit were predicated only on Donald Trump running for reelection. After his 2020 defeat, the loss of the two Republican senate seats in Georgia, and the January 6 demonstrations/riot, Trump was written off by pundits as politically toxic.
Then his historic comeback in the subsequent year terrified the left. The reboot prompted the subsequent indictments and suits years after the purported crimes. It was left unsaid that had Trump not been a conservative Republican and leading presidential candidate, he would have never been indicted.
Three, most of the indictments either had no prior precedent in criminal law or will likely never be used again, at least against anyone left-wing. Moreover, many of the writs relied on manipulation of statutes of limitations.
Neither Bragg nor any other local prosecutor had previously transformed a supposedly local affidavit misdemeanor into a supposed federal campaign finance violation, a gambit so preposterous that it had been passed on by federal attorneys.
Letitia James was the first New York Attorney General to indict a state resident for the supposed crime of overvaluing real estate to obtain a loan, which was paid back timely and in full, to the profit of lending institutions. No bank, after auditing Trump’s assets and viability to pay back loans, was unhappy to loan to him. But all were quite happy to profit from the hefty interest—and would likely be happy to loan to him again.
James sought to make Trump a criminal without ever finding a crime, much less a victim. Nor, until the checkered and unethical career of Fani Willis, had any local prosecutor ever indicted an ex-president for a supposedly improper phone call questioning whether all the state’s votes had been fully counted.
Alvin Bragg’s case was nonexistent given the statute of limitations on supposed misdemeanors committed over six years prior—until Bragg transmogrified the accusations of minor crimes into felonies and, with them, extensions granted supposedly due to the COVID lockdowns.
In Carroll’s case, her unsubstantiated accusations of a sexual assault were also well past the statute of limitations until a left-wing New York legislator and unapologetic Trump hater passed a special law—a veritable bill of attainder aimed at Trump—waiving the statute of limitations for a year in cases of accusations of long-past sexual assault in the state of New York.
Four, all the indictments and suits took place in either blue cities, counties, or states. And most of the jury pools in or near New York, Atlanta, or Miami were or will be heavily Democrat. So far, the New York judges who have overseen Trump’s civil and criminal trials—Justices Engoron, Kaplan, and Merchan—were all liberals, appointed by Democrat or liberal politicians, and some have donated to Democrat causes. They were not shy about expressing disdain for defendant Trump. No changes in venues were ever allowed.
Five, all the prosecutors, Bragg, James, Smith, and Willis, are likewise either Democrats or associated with liberal causes. In the case of Bragg, James, and Willis, all three ran for office and raised money on promises and boasts of getting Donald Trump. And all three have now set the precedent that local and state prosecutors can warp the law and use it to go after an ex-president and leading presidential candidate of the opposite party for naked political purposes.
Six, all these cases were equally applicable to high-profile Democrat politicos. E. Jean Carroll’s defamation suit was the most laughable of all the court dramas, but its outline and protocols just as easily could have applied to Tara Reade. She came forward to accuse candidate Biden of having sexually assaulted her years earlier—roughly about the same period’s as Carroll’s fluid timelines. Her story is about as believable or unbelievable as Carroll’s. But the difference was that whereas the media canonized the delusional and self-contradictory Carroll as a useful anti-Trump tool, it demonized Reade as a crazy loon and liar—and a potential impediment to Biden’s 2019-20 primary campaign.
Bragg had to torture the law to fabricate a federal campaign finance indictment against Trump. But Hillary Clinton clearly violated federal campaign statutes—and was variously fined—when she tried to hide her “opposition research” payments to Christopher Steele as “legal expenses.” In truth, Steele was hired and paid to concoct a fake anti-Trump dossier and likely should have been barred from working for a presidential campaign given he was not a U.S. citizen.
In the case of Smith, simultaneously with his case against Trump, his twin special prosecutor, Robert Hur, found that Joe Biden had unlawfully removed classified files for much longer than Trump (30 years plus), in a much less secure location (his rickety garage), and without a president’s authority to declassify his documents. Moreover, he had disclosed their contents to his ghostwriter, who destroyed evidence under subpoena by Hur. Yet unlike Trump, Biden was not charged, given that Hur claimed that Biden, in his opinion, was so old and amnesiac that he might win sympathy rather than a conviction from a jury.
Willis indicted Trump for supposedly trying to pressure officials to “find” missing Trump ballots, thus supposedly violating “racketeering” statutes, as he oversaw an attempt to find troves of ballots he thought had been cast for him. Of course, in the same state, Stacy Abrams, after losing the gubernatorial race of 2018, claimed she had actually won, despite losing by over 50,000 votes. She sued to overturn the election and then made a celebrity-political career touring the nation, falsely claiming she was the real governor and her victorious opponent was an illegitimate governor.
For that matter, in 2016, left-wing organizations, celebrities, and thousands of political operatives sought to overturn the Trump victory by appealing to the electors to renounce their states’ popular vote tallies and thus become “faithless electors.” In sum, there was a true conspiracy, or, better, a “racketeering” scheme, to use Willis’s parlance, to coordinate various groups to overturn the constitutional duties of electors to throw the election to Hillary Clinton. Clinton, along with the likes of ex-president Jimmy Carter and soon-to-be House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries, would continue to deny that Trump was the legitimately elected president.
In sum, the number of suits against and indictments against Trump grew in correlation to his political fortunes. They were designed in the election year 2024 to do what Democrat voters likely cannot. They are ridiculous and sui generis, and will never be used against anyone other than Trump. They have done more damage to democracy, the rule of law, and equal justice to the law than all of the antics that Trump is accused of.
Moreover, they will set in motion a dangerous tit-for-tat cycle of weaponization that threatens the very constitutional order of the United States.
If Trump is elected to restore the rule of equal justice, will a Republican special counsel revisit Robert Hur’s work and find ex-President Biden quite capable of standing trial for the crimes Hur has already investigated and confirmed?
Will then a new Republican-appointed FBI director order a SWAT-like raid, with Fox News forewarned and Newsmax reporters on the scene, to descend into the Biden beach house?
Will county and state prosecutors in Utah, Montana, and Oklahoma feel that to stop this cycle of illegality, they must charge the Biden family members by bootstrapping local indictments onto federal crimes?
Will conservative women in the future come forward in Arkansas, Idaho, and Alabama to claim that in their past, they now suddenly remember that decades ago a prominent Democrat candidate harassed them? Will their right-wing lawyers cherry-pick the proper red-state judge?
Will conservative district attorneys find ways to indict Joe Biden on the various imaginative bookkeeping and “loan repayments” used to disguise the fact his corrupt family received well over $20 million from illiberal foreign interests, much if not all of it camouflaged to avoid income taxes?
Will some South Carolina legislator get a bill of attainder passed in the legislature, ending the statute of limitations for a year for all those in 2016 who sought to undermine the electors and flip them to Hillary Clinton?
In August or September, will a right-wing state prosecutor and a conservative judge find that Joe Biden’s creative bookkeeping warrants a $450 million fine, payable before appeal?
And will Republican officials and judges in purple states move to get Biden’s name off the ballot?
Such scenarios are endless and, given the current precedents, could all be justified as desperate deterrent measures to shock the left into ceasing their efforts to sabotage our constitutional system and rule of law.
A final note.
There is a divine order of balance in the world, one known variously by particular civilizations as kismet, nemesis, karma, or what goes around, comes around payback. We’ve already seen such forces at work: Sen. Schumer at the head of a mob at the doors of the Supreme Court, calling out threats to justices by name, only now finding pro-Hamas thugs circling his own home. Or Democrats during the Trump years straining to find ways to invoke the 25th Amendment, now humiliated into claiming a non-compos-mentis Joe Biden is “sharp as a knife.”
Tragically for the country, to stop this left-wing madness, the Trump travesties may not be the end, but the beginning of precisely what the Founders feared.
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
Judge Holds Trump Contempt With Fine, Jail Threat For Violating Gag Order In ‘Hush Money’ Trial
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 10:31 AM
Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan has held Donald Trump in contempt of court for ‘repeatedly violating’ a gag order in his so-called hush money trial in New York.
According to Merchan, Trump violated the gag order nine times in online posts which targeted jurors or likely witnesses in the trial. The former president was fined the maximum of $1,000 per violation, or $9,000 – and was ordered to remove all of the offending posts by 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
What’s more, Merchan threatened to toss Trump in jail if he willfully violates court orders again.
“Defendant is hereby warned that the Court will not tolerate continued willful violations of its lawful orders and that if necessary and appropriate under the circumstances, it will impose an incarceratory punishment,” wrote Merchan in his ruling, CNBC reports.
Merchan read the order aloud before the trial resumed with more testimony from a banker who worked with the former president’s lawyer on a $130,000 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.
That payment is at the heart of Manhattan prosecutors’ case accusing Trump of falsifying business records as part of a scheme to influence the 2016 presidential election.
Gary Farro, a former senior managing director at First Republic bank, took the stand Friday and continued testifying Tuesday.
On his way into the courtroom, Trump repeated his call for Merchan to both recuse himself from the case and dismiss it entirely. -CNBC
“The judge should terminate the case because they have no case,” said Trump in response, adding that he’s been unable to campaign for president because he’s stuck in court.
That said, Merchan is allowing Trump to attend his son Barron’s high school graduation on May 17.
The historic trial began last week, which has included testimony from former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker, as well as Trump’s longtime personal secretary, Rhona Graff.
Pecker testified to his efforts to “catch and kill” stories that could be damaging to Trump – including one instance in which his company American Media paying $30,000 for the rights to a former Trump Tower doorman’s story about Trump having a secret love child – though Pecker believes the story is untrue.
The company also inked a $150,000 deal with former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who claimed to have had an extramarital affair with Trump, according to Pecker.
Pecker said he did not pay to silence Daniels, who claims she had sex with Trump.
As the Epoch Times notes further, Court was resuming Tuesday with Gary Farro, a banker who helped President Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen open accounts, including one that Mr. Cohen used to send a payment to adult film performer Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford. She alleged a 2006 affair with President Trump, which he denies.
…
Outside the courtroom Tuesday, President Trump criticized prosecutors again. “This is a case that should have never been brought,” he said.
“Our country’s going to hell and we sit here day after day after day, which is their plan, because they think they might be able to eke out an election,” he declared last week in the courthouse hallway.
end
“Jack Smith Is Trying To Interfere With 2024 Election”: Stefanik Files Ethics Complaint Against Special Counsel
TUESDAY, APR 30, 2024 – 11:05 AM
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) filed an ethics complaint against special counsel Jack Smith on Tuesday, in which she accuses the prosecutor overseeing federal investigations into Donald Trump of trying to “interfere with the 2024 election and stop the American people from electing” the former president.
“At every turn, he has sought to accelerate his illegal prosecution of President Trump for the clear (if unstated) purpose of trying him before the November election,” Stefanik wrote in a Tuesday morning tweet. “Smith’s conduct has brought disrepute to the Department of Justice and the entire federal government, and the DOJ’s Office of Professional Responsibility should impose the discipline that such conduct warrants.”
I just filed an official ethics complaint against Jack Smith with the Department of Justice’s Office of Professional Responsibility for his illegal election interference. It’s obvious to any reasonable observer that Jack Smith is trying to interfere with the 2024 election and stop the American people from electing Donald Trump. At every turn, he has sought to accelerate his illegal prosecution of President Trump for the clear (if unstated) purpose of trying him before the November election. The Justice Department’s own policies clearly prohibit Smith from doing so, and as a DOJ employee he is bound by those policies. Moreover, when the district court imposed a stay on the proceedings, Smith and his office ignored it and continued to file discovery documents. Smith’s conduct has brought disrepute to the Department of Justice and the entire federal government, and the DOJ’s Office of Professional Responsibility should impose the discipline that such conduct warrants.
Of course, if Elise wanted to do more than audition for Trump’s VP, she’d “start investigating the underlying organizers of all this,” writes journalist Jeff Carlson on X. “People like Norman Eisen, Ben Wittes & Mary McCord.”
If you really want to make a difference, start investigating the underlying organizers of all this. People like Norman Eisen, Ben Wittes & Mary McCord. And their financial backers: Brookings, CREW, Open Society. Jack Smith is just a useful tool.
Read the complaint below:
KING REPORT
he King Report April 30, 2024 Issue 7232
Independent View of the News
Yen Sparks Intervention Suspicious After U-Turn from 1990 Lows – BBG 7:44 ET Japan Intervenes After Yen Slides Against the Dollar – WSJ 9:03 ET The yen/$ sank to 106 for the first time since 1990. After hitting 106.17 at 21:32 ET, the yen/$ then soared on apparent intervention to 155.06 at 1:05 ET. After falling to 157.13 at 2:45 ET, the yen/$, on another apparent intervention rallied to 154.54 at 3:35 ET. History shows that official forex intervention is doomed to failure unless there are fundamental changes. History also shows that profound currency moves, like the yen did on Monday, often leave financial duress in their wake. In the coming days, we will see who got destroyed in the moves. Tesla shares spike 12% as Elon Musk wins approval for full self-driving rollout in Chinahttps://nypost.com/2024/04/29/business/tesla-spikes-12-as-elon-musk-wins-ok-for-self-driving-rollout-in-china/US Eases Some Sanctions on Russian Banks for Energy Deals (to re-elect Biden) – BBG 14:34 ET US authorizes energy-related transactions with Russian banks until November 1 (Blatant election-year politics) https://tass.com/economy/1782161Wall Street Has Spent Billions Buying Homes. A Crackdown Is Looming – WSJ 5:30 ETDemocrats in the U.S. Senate and House have sponsored legislation that would force large owners of single-family homes to sell house to family buyers. A Republican’s bill in the Ohio state legislature aims to drive out institutional owners through heavy taxation… Investors that have scooped up hundreds of thousands of houses to rent out are contributing to the dearth of homes for sale and driving up home prices… investor buying has made it harder for first-time buyers to compete with Wall Street-backed investment firms and their all-cash offers… The bills in the House and Senate would cap rental-home ownership at no more than 50 homes… A bill in Minnesota… would limit ownership to 20 homes…https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/wall-street-has-spent-billions-buying-homes-a-crackdown-is-looming-f85ae5f6 How could the ‘Best & Brightest’, the ‘Masters of the Universe’ from Wall Street NOT know that driving home prices higher via massive institutional buying would result in punishing legislation? Decades of bribing Congress to ignore their financial schemes would not inoculate them from impairing the ‘American Dream’ to own a home. Affluent Americans are driving US economy and likely delaying need for Fed rate cutsBenefiting from outsize gains in the stock and housing markets over the past several years, they are accounting for a larger share of consumer spending — the principal driver of economic growth — than ever before… (Bidenomics is dependent on asset inflation!)https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affluent-americans-driving-us-economy-154757920.htmlFeds warn employers can be punished for failing to use preferred transgender pronouns, restrooms –EEOC’s landmark new regulatory guidance elevates gender identity as a protected class under discrimination laws like race, sex and religion. https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/feds-warn-employers-can-be-punished-failing-use-preferred-transgenderHong Kong stocks rise, end on the cusp of bull market after longest winning streak since October on earnings optimism – Insurer AIA Group said new business value, an underlying gauge of future profitability, rose 27 per cent in the first quarter and boosted its buy-back plan by US$2 billion Chengdu became the latest city seeking to resurrect its property market, removing homebuyers’ qualification for purchases and supporting developers’ funding needshttps://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3260736/hong-kong-stocks-rise-sixth-straight-day-longest-winning-streak-october-earnings-optimism ESMs traded higher when the Nikkei opened and progressively rallied on Monday Rally, Fed Week, and April performance gaming until 2:00 ET. After a retreat from 5147.00 to 5134.50 at 5:57 ET, ESMs rallied until they hit a daily high of 5154.25 at 9:32 ET. An early dump took ESMs down to 5136.75 at 9:41 ET, ESMs vacillated in a wide range until they broke near 14:30 ET. After an 11-handle rally, ESMs tumbled on this: US Boosts April-June Borrowing Est. to $243B from $202B – BBG 15:00 ET. PS – The breakdown near 14:30 ET might have been the illicit activity of those that got inside info about the 20% increase in Treasury debt issuance this quarter. ESMs sank to a daily low of 5118.75 at 15:07 ET. Bulls and April performance gamers then got busy. ESMs were manipulated to 5151.50 at 16:00 ET. Once again, it has been proven that trading schemes regularly trump fundamentals – especially when performance gaming is operative! Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter – BBG A third of all S&P 500 trades now occur just before the close European research points to price distortion, liquidity issues (none dare say ‘manipulation)https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-trade-390-minutes-day-114558081.html USMs declined moderately on the announcement of the 20% hike in US debt issuance for Q2. The usual suspects are toting a sizable inventory of US debt from last week’s $180B issuance and they, along with April performance gamers, are trying to keep a dike from bursting. Positive aspects of previous sessionStocks rallied on Monday Rally, Fed Week, and April performance gaming buyingBonds rallied on April performance gaming – The Street is loaded with US debt Negative aspects of previous sessionStocks sank in the late afternoonThe yen is in or close to a crisisUS debt issuance for this quarter will be over 20% higher than projected (Buying votes for Biden!) Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionWhat happens to stocks after Apple reports results on May 2?First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up;Last Hour: UpPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5109.44Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5123.49; 5088.65Biden admin accuses Israeli military of human rights violations in stunning condemnation(Sucking up to Iran and US Arab voters in Michigan)https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-accuses-israeli-military-human-rights-violations-stunning-condemnationU.S. pushes for Gaza cease-fire, seeing narrow window for a deal before Israel launches Rafah assault – Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to accept what he said was an “extraordinarily generous” proposal for a truce and hostage release agreement…(Team Obama is palpably desperate to save Hamas & Iran!)https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-cease-fire-hostage-deal-antony-blinken-saudi-rcna149747Medill Prof. Steven Thrasher speaks at ‘Northwestern Liberation Zone’ on Deering Meadow“To the Medill students and journalists within earshot, I say to you: Our work is not about objectivity,” he said. “Our work is about you putting your brilliant minds to work and opening your compassionate hearts.”… (Prof at NU’s highly-acclaimed J-School admits their brand of journalism is not objective!)https://dailynorthwestern.com/2024/04/27/campus/medill-prof-steven-thrasher-speaks-at-encampment/Columbia President Minouche Shafik admitted that the negotiations with the student protestors have failed: AP (What is there to negotiate?) @stillgray: Columbia University faculty form a human line against police to prevent the removal of the protest encampments.https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1785013220866134224House Democrats demand Columbia University trustees disband ‘tent camp’ or resignhttps://nypost.com/2024/04/29/us-news/house-dems-demand-columbia-u-trustees-disband-encampment-or-resign/ Some Dems understand the pro-Palestine protests harm Democrats because Americans see disorder and the reluctance to prosecute criminals. Also, a significant number of people view the protests as being more anti-US than pro-Palestine. Prof says college students aren’t having enough sex — so they’re turning to anti-Israel protests (If you scrutinize the pictures of the protesters, you will understand why.) https://t.co/6iXwlP4iZzFour out of five Americans favor Israel over Hamas, most back Rafah operation: pollhttps://nypost.com/2024/04/29/us-news/four-out-of-five-americans-favor-israel-over-hamas-most-back-rafah-operation-poll/US Pacific commander says China is pursuing ‘boiling frog’ strategy… the ultimate danger was under-appreciated until it was too late… Retiring Admiral John Aquilino accuses Beijing of gradually raising pressure in South China Seahttps://www.ft.com/content/f926f540-d5c2-43f2-bd8f-c83c0d52bcdaToday is month end, the start of a 2-day FOMC Meeting, and Amazon earnings (after the close). It is also the end of the grand intermediate-term upward seasonal bias that shows stocks tend to rally from November 1 to April 30, especially trading sardines. Today’s action, especially the late going, could be a contest between April performance gamers and pattern traders that intend to exploit the manipulators by unloading stuff before the end of a grand pattern.ESMs are -3.00; NQMs (Naz 100) are +4.75; USMs are +1/32; and Gold is -13.30 at 19:30 ET. Expected Earnings: MCD 2.72, MMM 2.03, MPC 2.57, KO .70, LLY 2.44, PCAR 2.19, PRU 3.12, CLX 1.36, PSA 4.10, AMZN .83, SBUX .80, MDLZ .89 Expected economic data: Q1 Employment Cost Index 1.0%; Feb FHFA House Price Index 0.1% m/m; Feb. S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices 0.1% m/m & 6.7% y/y; April Chicago PMI 45; April Conference Board Consumer Confidence 104 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5126; 100-day MA: 4965; 150-day MA: 4765; 200-day MA: 4693DJIA 50-day MA: 38,782; 100-day MA: 38,231; 150-day MA: 36,838, 200-day MA: 36,341(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5116.17 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5271.99 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5126.43 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5070.99 triggers a sell signal OnlyFans Creator Says Biden Admin Paid For “Full on Political Propaganda”OnlyFans creator and TikTok star Farha Khalidi says that the Biden administration paid her to push “full on political propaganda,” and asked her not to disclose that she was advertising for them. Speaking with commentator Richard Hanania, Khalidi said she’d been asked to boast about Ketanji Brown Jackson after Jackson was nominated to the Supreme Court by President Biden…https://www.zerohedge.com/political/do-not-disclose-ad-onlyfans-creator-says-biden-admin-paid-full-political-propaganda @TheFirstonTV: The lights are on, but no one’s home. (Joe goes catatonic) https://t.co/vvneAsHvuLJoe Biden is far from ‘decent’ despite what the media and celebrities may claimJoe Biden is the least popular president of the past 70 years, according to a new Gallup poll. But you wouldn’t know it if you were at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington on Saturday night. The glittering event is supposed to be a roast of the president. Instead, it was a flattering suck-up to Biden amid jabs at Donald Trump…Biden then called on the journalists in the room to report “truth over lies. … In an age of disinformation, credible information people can trust is more important than ever.” Honestly, there’s nothing decent about a president who lies and gaslights the American people day after day.There’s nothing decent about throwing your political opponent in jail, as Biden and his cronies are trying to do to Trump… There’s nothing decent about: (Long list of Joe’s venality)…https://nypost.com/2024/04/28/opinion/joe-biden-is-far-from-decent-despite-what-the-media-and-celebrities-may-claim/Fund manager indicates Jim Biden was in business with Qatari officials – The alleged arrangements wouldbe some of the closest known links between a Biden relative and a foreign government.The sworn testimony by fund manager Michael Lewitt, a former business partner of Jim Biden’s, attests that two companies that facilitated the efforts were part-owned by “members of the Qatari government.”…https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/28/jim-biden-qatar-testimony-00154704Biden’s secret weapon for November: using federal agencies to ‘get out the vote’ FOR HIMhttps://nypost.com/2024/04/28/opinion/bidens-secret-weapon-for-november-using-federal-agencies-to-get-out-the-vote-for-hi/3 US Marshals task force members killed, 5 officers shot in CharlotteThe U.S. Marshals Task Force was serving a warrant… The suspect, who has not yet been identified, was also killed in the standoff…https://abcnews.go.com/US/US/numerous-law-enforcement-officers-struck-gunfire-charlotte-police/ WGN: Mayor Johnson will not attend funeral of CPD Officer Huesca after family says he’s ‘unwelcome’… “and other politicians that do not adequately support the police.” https://t.co/paQ2IHqhkKJerry Seinfeld says ‘extreme left’ politically correct mob has killed comedyhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13362661/Jerry-Seinfeld-extreme-left-politically-correct-mob-killed-comedy.html
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