MAY 9 BLOG//GOLD CLOSED UP $18.25 TO $2333.35/SILVER CLOSED UP $0.78 TO $28.14/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $6.10 TO $984.60//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $2.55 $ TO $970.25//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM PETER SCHIFF////ALSO AN EXCELLENT SILVER COMMENTARY ON A LOST SILVER HOARD///BIDEN VS ISRAEL ERUPTS AS USA WITHHOLDS MUNITIONS TO ISRAEL//LINDSAY GRAHAM QUESTIONS LLOYD AUSTIN IN A MUST VIEW AS BIDEN’S TEAM IMPLODES//OTHER ISRAEL VS HAMAS COMMENTARIES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY//SLAY NEWS//REAL ESTATE TYCOON CLAIMS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO BANK FAILURES PER WEEK//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 4
TOTAL: 4 4 MONTH TO DATE: 1,806
JPMorgan stopped 0/4
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 4 NOTICES FOR 400 OZ or 0.01244 TONNES
total notices so far: 1806 contracts for 180600 Oz (5.617 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 174 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 870,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5260 for 26.300 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $18.25
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.47TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.47 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER UP 78 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// INVENTORY DECREASES T0 424.055MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 424.055 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 302 CONTRACTS TO 162,170 AND ASCENDING TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0,11 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED 1102 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1102 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.11 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 467 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.11
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED 165 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 480,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 26.695 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1102 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A STRONG 740CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAYS, total 3675 contracts: OR 18.375 MILLION OZ (525 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 17.550 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 18.375 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 302 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 165 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 28.130 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 480,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 26.695 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 467 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1102 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1102 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 174 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 870,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2947 OI CONTRACTS TO 526,888 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 1023 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (2947 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.90 LOSS IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHACK GOLD’S PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 5.7045 TONNES
NEW STANDING 5.7045 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $0.90 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2947 OI CONTRACTS (3.391 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4034 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 526,888
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1087 CONTRACTS WITH3970 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 4034 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1087 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 32,526 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4034 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE LOSS IN COMEX OI 2974/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1087 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /MAY 5.7045 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
// 4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 32,526 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 30,123 CONTRACTS OR 3,012,300 OZ OR 93.69 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4304 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 93.69 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 93.69DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 93.69 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 302 CONTRACTS OI TO 162,170 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 165 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 165 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 165 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 302 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 165 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 467 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.335 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.11 LOSS IN PRICE …..
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR 0.83% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 223.95PTS OR 1.22%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 128.39 OR 0.34%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.02%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2265 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2331/ Oil UP TO 79.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 84.11 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 2947 CONTRACTS TO 526,888 DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.90 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4034 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE4034 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:4034 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1087 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4034 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 2947 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS TINY GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.90 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 32,526 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (5.7045 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 5.7045 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A SMALL $0.90 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF1087 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE 0F $0.90
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,( AND IT WAS ANOTHER DOOZY) WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 3.381 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4 CONTRACTS OR 400 OZ ( .0199 TONNES)
NEW STANDING: 5.7045 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.90
WE HAVE ADDED 1023 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1087 CONTRACTS OR 108,700(3.381 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 287,902 contracts//fair/ to good
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1806notices 180,600 oz 5.617 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
we have 0 customer deposits:
total deposit nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Brinks 32/151 oz 1 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 32.151 0z
Adjustments: 1
brinks: dealer to customer: 675.171 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 32 contracts having LOST 14 contracts.
We had 18 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 4 contracts or 400 oz (,0199onnes).
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 25,216 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 325,959 CONTRACTS.
JULY LOST 26 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 166
We had 4 contracts filed for today representing 400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1806) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY ( 32 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract( equals 183,000 OZ OR 5.8095TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1806x 100 oz + (32 OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz which equals 183,400 oz (5.7045 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 5.7045 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,617,070.745 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,343,795.541( 228.42 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,273,275.204 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,766,572 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 179.36 tonnes
179.36 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 9
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
407,840.721 oz Delaware Brinks
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
00OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,214,855.640 oz
ASAHI Loomid
No of oz served today (contracts)
174 CONTRACT(S) (870,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
79 contracts (0.395 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5260 Contracts (26.300 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into ASAHI: 612,411.900 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 602,444.240 oz
total customer deposits 1,214,855.640 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,598million oz/297.785 million or 43.64%
adjustment: 1/customer to dealer
a)Manfra 161,571.300 ox
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) out of Delaware 11,737.741 oz ii) out of Brinks 396,102.980 oz
total withdrawal 407,840.721 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 65.131MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.785 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 253 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 354 CONTRACT(S).
.
We had 450 notices served on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 96 contracts or 480,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 138 CONTRACTS RISING TO 1906
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 462 CONTRACTS UP TO 132,305
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 174 for 870,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 57,419 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5260 x 5,000 oz = 26.300MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (253 and the number of notices served upon today 174x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 5260 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (253 number of notices served upon today minus (174x 5000 oz of silver standing for the may contract month equates to 26.695 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 26.695 million oz.
There are 62.355 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
GLD INVENTORY: 830.47TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
Peter notes that April’s losses in the stock market were in part created by doubt about the Fed’s future rate cuts:
“The reason for that was heightened talk not just about the Fed not cutting rates, but for the first time, I heard people discussing the possibility that the Fed might have to raise rates, that the next move may in fact be a hike and not a cut. Now that‘s the first time that I’ve heard any mainstream discussion of that possibility. … I’ve been saying that that is the correct policy. If the Fed really is data-dependent, and if the Fed really wants to fight inflation, based on the data, they should resume their hikes.”
Despite this possibility, markets are unduly optimistic. The Fed’s historical record is not very successful, even decades ago when America’s fiscal health was much better:
“The markets believe that the Fed is going to succeed. This is pure nonsense! I look back at the inflation statistics for the 40 years before the 2008 financial crisis— so 2008, 2007, going back to 1968, those 40 years— there were only 3 years where inflation was 2% or lower. The average inflation rate over those 40 years was 4.8%. … If the Fed wasn’t able to come close to 2% during those 40 years, why does anybody think it’s going to come anywhere near it over the next 30 years?”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell still refuses to criticize federal fiscal policy, despite the apparent need for rate hikes:
“Not only is he allowed to do it, he’s really required to do it! That’s the whole point of an independent central bank…
…so you can criticize the government when it makes a mistake, not hide behind your independence and fail to criticize the government. Paul Volker was Congress’s biggest critic!”
After stock prices plummeted last week for large companies like Starbucks, Peter sees the declines as a sign of future stagflation:
“I think that this is the beginning of a trend. I think Starbucks is going to have a hard time with sales in the stagflation environment that Jerome Powell doesn’t want to acknowledge. And Starbucks wasn’t the only company! I remember Clorox came out and warned it had a big drop. Remember Peloton! Peloton missed as well.”
Peter also mentions some highlights from his Bitcoin debate on Friday. He argues again that “Know Your Customer” (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations are primarily used to prevent tax evasion, not violent terrorism:
“If they can catch a few terrorists, ok fine, that’s the icing on the cake. The cake is tax evasion. That’s what all these governments are trying to prevent when they require all these AML KYC rules at banks. How many terrorists do you think there are in the world? Out of a hundred people, how many of them are going to be a terrorist? Very few. … I don’t think there was ever a point where a terrorist tried to deposit money at my bank.”
U.S. tax policy has strayed quite far from that of the country’s Founding era:
“The country was founded by tax protesters. The country was founded by people who didn’t want to pay a tiny tax to the British crown! There’s no way King George would’ve ever imposed an income tax on the colonists. He would never do something that draconian. No! He’s talking about excise taxes. Taxes on tea, taxes on stamps, little things! We had a whole revolutionary war because of those tiny little taxes. … No government has the right to take half of what somebody earns.”
While Peter agrees on a lot with his debate opponent Erik Voorhees, they still disagree on Bitcoin’s importance to the free market movement:
“I just don’t think that Bitcoin is part of the solution. Ultimately, it’s going to be part of the problem. Part of the solution to reigning in government is a return to sound money, a return to real money, and unfortunately, Bitcoin doesn’t fit that bill. But gold does.”
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/Alasdair Macleod
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
Gold bars sell fast in South Korea’s convenience stores and vending machines
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-05-08 12:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lee Ying Shan CNBC, New York Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Aside from ramen and sausages, South Korea’s convenience stores have a new popular item on the menu — gold bars.
The country’s largest convenience store chain, CU, has been collaborating with the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corp. to offer customers mini gold bars — and they’re selling like hotcakes.
A variety of fingernail sized gold bars weighing between 0.1 gram and 1.87 gram have been up for sale at CU outlets since April. A 1.87 gram bar sells for 225,000 won ($165.76) and a 0.5 gram bar sells for 77,000 won.
Priced at 113,000 won each, 1-gram bars were sold out within two days, according to local news reports. The bars come with congratulatory messages, birthday wishes, and even designs for personality types. …
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-05-08 21:36 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Brien Lundin Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities Metairie, Louisiana Wednesday, May 8, 2024
The question I got more than any other at the recent Deutsche Goldmesse conference in Frankfurt was: Why haven’t gold stocks responded to gold’s big run higher?
I had two answers for them:
1) The rally in gold had been so quick and dramatic that it took everyone by surprise. Investors felt they’d been left behind, and were waiting for a pull-back to get into the mining equities.
2) No one really understood why gold was rallying so hard. We’d been expecting a Fed pivot to be the big catalyst, but that was being postponed ever further ahead.
If we didn’t understand what’s driving gold, we couldn’t get a feel for how long the move might last. No one wanted to jump in headfirst just before a big slam back downward.
The good news, I told these investors, was that these factors were already starting to change. …
*end
Remember gold and silver are money; everything else is credit
(Stefan Gleason)
U.S. Rep. Mooney introduces bill to end federal taxation on gold and silver
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-05-08 21:47 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Money Metals News Service Eagle, Idaho Wednesday, May 8, 2024
U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, has re-introduced sound-money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.
The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 8279), backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and free-market activists, would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins is not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation. Gold and silver would be treated as a non-entity for tax purposes, putting it on par with the U.S. dollar.
Reps. Scott Perry, R-Pennsylvania, and Randy Weber, R-Texas, joined as original cosponsors.
“My view, which is backed up by language in the U.S. Constitution, is that gold and silver coins are money and are legal tender,” Rep. Mooney said.
“If they’re indeed U.S. money, it seems there should be no taxes on them at all. So why are we taxing these coins as collectibles?” …
Hedge Fund Boss Loses Legal Fight Over 2,364 Silver Bars Found In WWII Shipwreck
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 – 11:35 PM
An undersea exploration company backed by a top hedge fund boss in the United Kingdom lost a major legal fight over the salvage of $40 million worth of silver bars from the wreck of a ship lost to a Japanese submarine in World War II.
On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the UK’s Supreme Court ruled that the South African government could declare state immunity in a suit by hedge fund chief Paul Marshall’s Argentum Exploration Ltd.
Argentum Exploration argued in court that it was owed a ‘substantial salvage fee’ and wanted a court to ‘fix an award.’ However, the judges were informed that the two sides had agreed to a settlement.
Here’s more from Bloomberg:
The South African government had argued that that it not only still owns the silver, but insisted that it shouldn’t have to submit to the lawsuit at all.
The Supreme Court judges agreed, saying that the silver was a non-commercial cargo and the government was entitled to immunity.
The ruling overturned two prior court decisions, with a judge previously saying that the government had probably “forgotten” about the bullion. UK Companies House filings record that Marshall controls Argentum.
In 1942, the SS Tilawa was sailing from Mumbai on its way to Durban, South Africa, when two torpedoes from an Imperial Japanese Navy submarine sunk the passenger-cargo ship. On board were 2,364 bars of silver destined for the South African Mint. For seven decades, the ship resided more than two and a half kilometers below the surface of the Indian Ocean until Marshall’s exploration company discovered it.
In markets, the Bloomberg Precious Metal Subindex shows a multi-decade ‘cup and handle’ bullish formation.
We wonder if the settlement involved physical silver bars… Some analysts expect a “powerful silver bull market” ahead.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR 0.83% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 223.95PTS OR 1.22%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 128.39 OR 0.34%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.02%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2265 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2331/ Oil UP TO 79.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 84.11 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2265
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2331
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR 0.83 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR 0.83%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 128.39 PTS OR 0.34 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.57 EURO FALLS TO 1.0727 DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.913 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.86 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4865/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.831 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.276%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.512
3j Gold at $2316.70//Silver at: 27.70 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 0 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.95/
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.86/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.913% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9096 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9758 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.510 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.668 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.843 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.22…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1870 UP 5 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Treasury Yields Extend Gains
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 08:19 AM
US equity futures are weaker as yields resume their rise and the USD strengthens after the BOE signaled it was ready to cut rates. As of 7:45am, S&P futures were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.3% as all Mag7 names and most semis were red in the premarket. Most European markets are lower, tracking US futures and Asian stocks in what appears to be de-risking in a catalyst-light week. 10Y treasuries ticked lower for a second day, pushing the yield about 2bps higher to 4.51% after a $42 billion sale of 10-year notes received tepid demand. Commodities are stronger with Ags/Energy outperforming Metals. Jobless data is not expected to be market moving but keep an eye on the 30Y bond auction.
In premarket trading, US-listed shares of Arm Holdings plunged 8.5% after the chip-design company gave a full-year forecast that is seen as mixed relative to consensus, especially given the market’s high expectations. Airbnb shares also tumbled 8.7% after the home-rental company’s Q2 revenue forecast trailed the average analyst estimate, ahead of the peak summer season. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
AppLovin shares are up 15% after the software maker’s quarterly sales and earnings came in comfortably above forecasts.
Bumble shares jump 12% after the online dating company affirmed its full-year forecast, which Citi said offset a weak second-quarter guide.
Cardlytics shares drop 27% after the application software company reported revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Cheesecake Factory shares rise 1.6% after the restaurant chain operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Raymond James raised the recommendation on the stock to outperform from market perform.
Compass stock climbs 13% after the real estate technology firm delivered a revenue forecast range for the second-quarter that beat the average analyst estimate at the midpoint.
Duolingo shares fall 12% after the education software provider’s daily active user growth cooled. Analysts note that it was about time for the company’s growth to normalize after years of upside.
Magnite shares rise 11% after the advertising technology firm posted 1Q profit and revenue that beat estimates.
Robinhood shares gain 5.0% after the fintech’s results beat expectations thanks to strength in crypto trading.
SolarEdge shares plunge 9.1% after the solar power company reported a wider-than-expected 1Q loss and provided guidance for 2Q that came in below even the most pessimistic forecasts, according to analysts.
Trade Desk shares are up 1.1% after the advertising technology company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
Warner Bros. shares rise 3.3% after Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav ordered his lieutenants to find additional opportunities for cost-cutting in order to hit financial targets for the next couple years.
Zai Lab ADRs soar 19% after the Chinese biopharmaceutical company reported estimate-beating sales.
The recent stock bounce is fading as the earnings season winds down, leaving investors to wait for new data – especially next week’s CPI report – for clues to gauge how fast policymakers will be able to begin cutting rates. The pound fell against all of its Group of 10 peers after the Bank of England edged closer to cutting interest rates from a 16-year high, with two of the nine committee members voting for lower borrowing costs. US initial jobless claims data later Thursday will be another focal point for investors seeking more evidence that the labor market is finally softening, allowing the Federal Reserve to begin lowering rates by the end of the year. Prospects for a Fed rate cut improved after softer-than-expected US payrolls last week.
“We still see potential rate cuts to be some months out and with no probable actions occurring prior to September,” Louise Dudley, portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes, said in a note to clients. “US economy figures have generally been hot.”
The CPI figures due next week will offer fresh insights about the US economy after recent employment data showed the labor market is cooling. Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins signaled Wednesday that interest rates will likely need to be held at a two-decade high for longer than previously thought to damp demand and reduce price pressures.
European stocks fell 0.2%, hovering near record highs after rising in the prior four sessions. The energy sector outperformed, while autos were the worst laggards. Markets in Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland are closed for a holiday. Banco de Sabadell SA rose after Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA commenced a $12 billion hostile bid for the lender. Here are the most notable movers:
BAE Systems shares rise as much as 0.9% in a fourth day of gains after the defense and aerospace systems manufacturer delivered results in line with expectations.
Prysmian shares gain as much as 1.3%, pushing the stock to a record high, after narrowing its guidance to the upper end of the range and producing first-quarter results which analysts view as solid.
Banco de Sabadell shares rise as much as 7.1% after BBVA made an €11.5 billion hostile bid for its smaller Spanish banking rival, days after having an initial approach rejected. BBVA drops.
BE Semiconductor shares jump as much as 8% after the Dutch chip equipment maker said it receives an order for 26 hybrid bonding systems from a “leading semiconductor logic manufacturer.”
Nexi shares rise as much as 7.7% after the payments firm reported estimate-beating results, helped by a stronger card issuing business and cost controls.
IMI shares rise as much as 1.4%, on track to close at a fresh record high, after the engineering group delivered a solid trading update and reiterated its full-year guidance.
ITV shares rise as much as 3% after the UK broadcaster issued stronger-than-expected advertising guidance for 2Q, leading brokers to raise their price targets on the stock.
Harbour Energy shares rise as much as 6.2%, the most in four months, after the oil and gas company’s update showed it remains on track to meet expectations this year.
Balfour Beatty shares rise as much as 1.7% after the group released a short trading update confirming trading has been in line with expectations since the start of 2024.
3i shares fall as much as 3.6% after total return for the full year missed the average analyst estimate, with RBC analysts noting misses in operating cash profit and net debt at year-end coming in a little above forecasts.
Argenx shares fall as much as 10%, the steepest drop this year, after first-quarter results from the biotech firm failed to provide much in the way of fresh catalysts.
BPER Banca shares decline as much as 6.1% in Milan as the bank’s key trends look weaker, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
Wood shares fall as much as 3.5%, paring Wednesday’s rally after the Scottish engineering firm rejected a preliminary 205p/share acquisition proposal from Sidara.
Asian stocks resumed gains on Thursday, lifted by optimism around key offshore Chinese tech companies as they report earnings next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.4% after its four-day winning streak was halted in the previous session. Hong Kong-listed shares were among the best performers in the region, with Tencent giving the biggest boost to the index ahead of earnings next week. Meituan shares jumped nearly 5% after Citi raised its price target on expectation that earnings will show growth in the food delivery business. Japan’s Topix gained nearly 0.9% after BOJ Minutes revealed a desire from at least one member to sell all ETFs and an acknowledgement that a weaker JPY may lead to more inflation; the Australian benchmark fell after rising for five consecutive sessions. Stocks in Korea traded lower. Earnings of top Chinese technology companies will be key for the bounce-back in the nation’s stocks from their multi-year lows to continue. Tencent and Alibaba both publish results next Tuesday, followed by JD.com and Baidu two days later.
Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were underpinned amid resilience in the tech sector and after China’s eastern city of Hangzhou lifted all home purchase restrictions, although there were headwinds from default concerns as Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) failed to make coupon payments on a yuan-denominated bond due today but still has a grace period.
Nikkei 225 recovered from an early dip with trade contained as participants digested BoJ rhetoric and soft wages.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and financials with the latter pressured after Australia’s largest lender CBA reported a decline in profits.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% as the greenback gained against all Group-of-10 peers; Treasury yields rose 1-3bps across the curve.
USD/JPY rose as much as 0.3% as the Japanese yen led losses against the dollar, earlier in the Asian session the currency pair fell 0.2%; a BOJ April meeting summary indicated the weak yen is being closely watched and could result in a faster pace of rate hikes
GBP/USD steadied around 1.2480 after falling as much as 0.4% to 1.2450 after the BOE kept rates unchanged but signaled that the time for cuts is approaching
Treasuries are lower on the day, but have pared declines as gilts jump on Bank of England’s 7-2 vote to keep rates on hold, with Ramsden joining Dhingra in supporting a cut. UK curve steepens with 2-year yields dropping around 3bp on the day. US long-end yields remain cheaper by about 3bp with front-end outperforming slightly. 10-year around 4.51%, also cheaper by 3bp on the day; gilt yields reached day’s lows and GBP/USD fell as much as 0.4% to 1.245% after BOE policy announcement. US session includes weekly jobless claims and $25b 30-year bond sale, last of week’s three auctions.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.6% to trade near $79.40. Spot gold is little changed.
Bitcoin softer on the session and holds just shy of USD 61k, whilst Ethereum unable to climb back above USD 3k.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision and Governor Bailey’s press conference. Other speakers will include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE chief economist Pill. Otherwise in the US, we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims, and there’s a 30yr Treasury auction taking place.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 5,201.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 515.19
MXAP down 0.2% to 176.15
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 549.14
Nikkei down 0.3% to 38,073.98
Topix up 0.3% to 2,713.46
Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 18,537.81
Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,154.32
Sensex down 1.1% to 72,646.43
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 7,721.64
Kospi down 1.2% to 2,712.14
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $84.11/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,311.61
US Dollar Index up 0.16% to 105.71
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.50%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0728
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $84.12/bbl
Top Overnight News
China’s efforts to revive homebuyer demand gathered steam on Thursday when two major cities scrapped all their remaining curbs on residential property purchases, a move that more local governments are expected to follow. Developer stocks surged after Hangzhou, the capital of eastern Zhejiang province, said it will remove eight-year-old restrictions on residential property purchases and no longer review the qualifications of homebuyers. Xi’an, the capital of Shaanxi province, announced similar steps hours later. BBG
China’s central bank seems very likely to make a bond purchase in the secondary market for the first time in two decades. SCMP
The BOJ’s board is becoming more concerned about the inflation outlook as a sharply weaker yen threatens to drive up import prices, a summary of its latest meeting showed. WSJ
EU countries have agreed to use an estimated €3bn in profits arising from Russia’s frozen state assets to jointly buy weapons for Ukraine. The deal struck by the bloc’s 27 ambassadors on Wednesday only targets profits made by Belgium’s central securities depository Euroclear, where about €190bn of Russian central bank assets are held. Western nations immobilized Russia’s state assets abroad in 2022, in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. FT
President Biden trails former President Trump by roughly 1pp in national polling and by around 2pp in the swing state that would currently provide the winning electoral vote. Prediction markets imply around a 52% chance of a Democratic win. Biden’s lead over Trump in some prediction markets has retraced somewhat this month and Biden’s approval rating has ticked down to 38%, not far off the 37% low and below Trump’s average approval in the six months before he lost the 2020 election. GIR
Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday easily batted down an attempt by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia to oust him from his post, after Democrats linked arms with most Republicans to fend off a second attempt by G.O.P. hard-liners to strip the gavel from their party leader. NYT
Roughly one in 37 US homes is now considered seriously underwater, real estate data firm ATTOM said. That share is much higher — and growing at a faster pace — across a swath of southern states. But nationally, it’s still lower than before the pandemic. BBG
Tim Cook will likely stay AAPL’s CEO for at least another three years and his most likely successor at that time would be John Ternus, the current head of hardware engineering. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks were mixed as the region took its cue from the indecisive performance stateside owing to mixed earnings and as markets await the next major catalysts, while the somewhat mixed but improved Chinese trade data had little impact. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and financials with the latter pressured after Australia’s largest lender CBA reported a decline in profits. Nikkei 225 recovered from an early dip with trade contained as participants digested BoJ rhetoric and soft wages. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were underpinned amid resilience in the tech sector and after China’s eastern city of Hangzhou lifted all home purchase restrictions, although there were headwinds from default concerns as Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) failed to make coupon payments on a yuan-denominated bond due today but still has a grace period.
Top Asian News
PBoC said it could either buy or sell treasury bonds in the secondary market depending on market conditions, as such trades can be used to manage liquidity, according to Reuters.
China’s eastern city of Hangzhou lifted all home purchase restrictions, according to its housing authority.
Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) said it cannot make payments on a yuan-denominated bond, while it aims to pay onshore coupons due today and additional interests by May 13th. Furthermore, it stated that if it fails to make payments within the grace period, China Bond Insurance Co. will undertake credit enhancement obligations and it is still raising funds due to sales recovery lagging expectations.
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the US could ban Chinese-connected vehicles or impose guardrails, while it was separately reported that US Senator Brown is seeking a US ban on all Chinese internet-connected vehicles, according to Bloomberg.
Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia are exploring an ETF to track Hong Kong stock indices, while Hong Kong is working with several financial institutions to develop the ETF and the government is considering establishing an economic and trade office in Riyadh.
BoJ Summary of Opinions from the April meeting noted that a member stated if trend inflation accelerates, the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing but an accommodative financial environment is likely to continue for the time being and a member said if forecasts under quarterly report are met, interest rates might rise to levels higher than markets currently price in. It was also stated that one option would be to hike rates moderately in accordance with economic, price and financial developments to avoid a shock from an abrupt policy shift. Furthermore, a member said they must hike rates at an appropriate time as the likelihood of achieving forecasts heightens and a member said the BoJ must deepen the debate on the timing and pace of a future rate hike.
BoJ Governor Ueda said a low real rate supports the economy and inflation, while he added that they need to monitor FX and oil for real wages. Ueda also stated the BoJ could adjust the degree of monetary accommodation via rate hikes if trend inflation accelerates gradually, as well as noted that a sharp, one-sided yen fall is undesirable and bad for the economy. Furthermore, he reiterated if FX volatility affects or risks affecting trend inflation, the BoJ must respond with monetary policy and will scrutinise the recent weak yen in guiding monetary policy.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while they are closely watching FX moves and will take thorough response in forex. Suzuki also stated they will take all necessary measures and continue to analyse the FX impact on the economy and livelihoods and take appropriate action.
Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on intervention and if necessary, they will take appropriate action and are ready for currency intervention at any time, while he added that comments about Japan’s limitations are wrong when asked about FX intervention reserves.
Nissan (7201 JT) FY23/24 (JPY): Net Profits 426.65bln (+92.3% Y/Y), Operating Profit 568.72bln (+50.8%), Recurring Profits 702.16bln (+36.2%); Sees FY24 global retail sales at 3.7mln and North America sales of 1.43mln.
China is said to be considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend taxes on Hong Kong stocks bought via Stock Connect, Bloomberg sources say
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.2%) are mixed and unable to find direction, taking lead from an indecisive session in APAC trade with newsflow somewhat light thus far on account of Ascension Day. European sectors are mixed and with the breadth of the market fairly narrow, though with the exception of Autos, which has been weighed on by Mercedes-Benz (-5.5%). Energy is found at the top of the pile, propped up by broader strength in crude prices. US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.5%) are in the red, with slight underperformance in the RTY continuing the weakness seen in the prior session. In terms of stock specifics, Arm (-9%) is lower in the pre-market, despite beating on top/bottom line, though its guidance failed to impress investors & Tesla (-1.5%) on reports around China job reductions. Goldman Sachs raises 12-month FTSE 100 cash target to 8,800 from 8,200 (last close 8,354)
Top European News
FX
USD is firmer vs. all peers in quiet newsflow with the DXY eclipsing yesterday’s 105.64 best. Interim resistance ahead of the 106 mark comes via the 2nd May high at 105.89.
EUR is once again on the backfoot vs. the USD in a third consecutive session of losses. Currently trading within a 1.0751-27 range.
Pound is softer vs. the broadly stronger USD but flat vs. the EUR. BoE looming large for the pair with markets on the lookout for any hints of a move in June. If this materialises, yesterday’s low sits at 1.2468 with the MTD low just below at 1.2466. To the upside, 1.25 would be the immediate target with the 200DMA at 1.2542.
JPY unaffected by ongoing jawboning from Japanese officials and is the marginal laggard across the majors. 155.84 the session high thus far for USD/JPY.
Antipodeans are both relatively contained vs. the USD with macro drivers on the light side. AUD/USD is consolidating around its 100DMA after two sessions of losses and respecting yesterday’s 0.6557-99 range. NZD/USD a touch softer.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2238 (prev. 7.1016).
Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.50%, as expected, whereby 5 members voted in favour of a 25bps cut and 4 members voted for a 50bps reduction. The committee unanimously judged that the uncertain global scenario and the domestic scenario, marked by resilient economic activity and de-anchored expectations, require greater caution. It also stated that monetary policy should continue being contractionary until the consolidation of both the disinflation process and the anchoring of expectations around the targets.
Fixed Income
USTs are softer, in a continuation of the general bearish tone that was in place yesterday and one that appears to be driven by a pause-for-breath from the post-NFP move, lack of geopolitical escalation, relatively average 10yr before today’s 30yr and an increase in corporate issuance activity.
Gilts are pressured ahead of the BoE policy announcement. Gilts are toward the 97.50 trough and are underperforming EGBs somewhat, underperformance that appears to be a function of the UK catching up to the relatively average US 10yr auction late on Tuesday.
Bunds are softer, with action and drivers perhaps a touch thinner thus far on account of Ascension Day. Bunds down to a 130.90 base which marks a new low for the week and has taken the 10yr yield back to the 2.50% mark
Commodities
Firmer trade across energy contracts after futures settled with modest gains on Wednesday amid tailwinds from crude stocks drawing more than anticipated. Brent Jul’24 sits at the upper end of a USD 83.71-84.25/bbl range.
Mixed trade across precious metals with spot silver the outperformer, spot palladium the laggard, and spot gold flat. XAU is contained to a current USD 2,307.59-2,319.85/oz intraday range, within yesterday’s USD 2,303.75-2,321.53/oz range.
Base metals have turned lower since European traders entered the fray amid the cautious risk tone coupled with a rising Dollar.
Iraq sets the June 2024 Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia at USD +1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, via SOMO; to North and South America at -0.65/bbl vs ASCO; to Europe at -3.35/bbl vs dated Brent
Geopolitics: Middle East
Yemeni Houthis targeted two ships with rockets in the Gulf of Aden yesterday, according to the spokesperson.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation quoting a military source: Israel must reconsider its military plans in Rafah after Biden’s statements”, according to Sky News Arabia
US President Biden said if Israel goes into Rafah, he won’t supply them with weapons and artillery shells, while he added that Israel will not get their support if they go into those population centres and that bombs the US had supplied to Israel and now paused have been used to kill civilians. Biden also commented that Israel has not gone over the red line yet, while he is working with Arab states that are prepared to build Gaza and prepared to help transition to a two-state solution.
Hamas senior official said the movement sticks to its approval of the truce proposal.
Egyptian media said Israel deleted the phrase ‘permanent ceasefire’ and kept it ‘sustainable’, while Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Popular Front are participating in negotiations and are open to maturing and succeeding the Egyptian effort to reach a deal. Furthermore, work is underway to overcome the controversial points during the negotiations, which will be completed on Thursday, according to Asharq News.
Israeli senior officials warned their US counterparts that the Biden administration’s decision to pause a weapons shipment to Israel could jeopardise hostage negotiations, according to two sources briefed on the issue told Axios’ Ravid.
Syria shot down Israeli missiles fired from Golan Heights towards Damascus’s surroundings.
Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said Tehran will have to change its nuclear doctrine if its existence is threatened and has the capability to build a nuclear weapon, according to SNN.
Geopolitics: Other
Ukraine drone attack sparked a fire and damaged oil tanks at a refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar, according to regional officials.
Russian President Putin says tactical nuclear weapon drills are planned, according to Interfax.
Russia’s Gazprom says its Salavat plant was attacked by a drone but the plant is working normally, according to Ria
US Event Calendar
08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.78m, prior 1.77m
08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212,000, prior 208,000
Central Bank Speakers
14:00: Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from an early morning taxi to Heathrow en route to Madrid. After a remarkable Champions League semi-final last night I’m expecting a party in half the city at least today!
A little like Bayern last night, markets finally ran out of steam yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.00%) narrowly ending its run of four consecutive gains. If you’re looking for the dullest stat ever then the -0.03 points move was the smallest in either direction since the -0.02 points decline in September 2018.
The pause for breath was partly due to some disappointing earnings releases, but it also comes on the back of its strongest 4-day rally since November, so it was always going to be hard to maintain that pace. It was much the same story for sovereign bonds too, as the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.7bps) moved higher after a run of five consecutive declines. However, it wasn’t all bad news, as Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.34%), the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.49%) and Germany’s DAX (+0.37%) all hit fresh record highs.
Amidst all this, there were fresh signs that rate cuts were moving back into fashion yesterday, as the Swedish Riksbank became the second central bank with a G10 currency to cut rates in this cycle. The move was expected, but it was the first rate cut they’d delivered since 2016, so it was a big milestone, which took the policy rate down by 25bps to 3.75%. In addition, their statement signalled that more cuts were likely ahead, saying that if the inflation outlook held up, then they expected two more cuts in the second half of this year. It’s also worth noting that they’re in a better position than some other central banks, as their preferred measure of inflation (CPIF) was at 2.2% in March, so just above their 2% target.
The Riksbank’s decision follows the Swiss National Bank’s cut back in March, and it comes with mounting anticipation that the larger central banks are soon about to follow. In particular, the focus is turning to the ECB, who are increasingly expected to cut rates in four weeks’ time, marking the first cut since before the pandemic. Likewise, investors are now pricing in a 68% chance the Bank of Canada will cut at their next meeting in June. So it’s plausible that within a couple of months, we could have several central banks easing policy, with the global monetary policy cycle in easing mode with the considerable exception of the US. Yesterday’s CoTD (here) stretching back nearly 7 decades shows how rare it is for Europe to be easing before the US so we’ll have to see the implications in the months ahead. The obvious one is for dollar strength to continue.
Central banks will remain in focus today, as we’ve got the Bank of England’s latest policy decision at 12:00 London time. In terms of what to expect, it’s widely anticipated they’ll leave rates unchanged at 5.25%, where they’ve been since August. So the focus will instead be on the vote split, their new forecasts, and what their forward guidance signals about potential cuts in the future. DB’s UK economist thinks the vote will be 7-2 to remain on hold, with 2 voting to cut, and he also expects a further dovish tilt in the forward guidance, which would set the stage for a June rate cut. See his full preview here
But even as central banks are pivoting towards rate cuts, yesterday saw sovereign bonds lose ground on both sides of the Atlantic, ending a run of gains since the Fed’s decision last week. For instance, the 10yr US Treasury yield was back up +3.7bps to 4.495% and is trading at 4.515% as I type in Asia hours. Marginally adding to the bond sell-off was the latest 10yr Treasury auction, that saw $42bn of bonds issued at 4.48%, 1bp above the pre-sale yield. And over in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+4.3bps), OATs (+4.1bps) and BTPs (+3.6bps) all moved higher, whilst Swedish 10yr yields (+3.5bps) saw a similar move despite the rate cut.
For equities, there was a more divergent performance on either side of the Atlantic, with those in Europe holding up and seeing the fresh records mentioned above and those in the US losing a touch of momentum. The S&P 500 was essentially flat on the day (-0.00%). Moderate losses from the Magnificent 7 (-0.29%) were counterbalanced by advances among sectors including utilities (+1.05%) and banks (+1.22%). But the overall tone was titled to the negative side with 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day and the small cap Russell 2000 underperforming (-0.46%).
Elsewhere, it was a volatile day for oil prices, which reversed their earlier losses to leave Brent crude up +0.51% at $83.58/bbl ($83.95 overnight). At first they had seen a sharp decline, hitting an intraday low of $81.71/bbl, which is the lowest they’ve been in almost a couple of months. But then we had the latest weekly data from the EIA showing that US crude oil inventories were down by 1.36m barrels, leading to a recovery in prices.
Asian equity markets are notably higher this morning even if US futures are edging slightly lower. Chinese stocks are outperforming with the Hang Seng (+1.23%) leading gains followed by the CSI (+1.03%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.91%) after Chinese property stocks surged after Hangzhou removed home buying restrictions, in a move that created speculation that other cities might follow. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.33%) is reversing its previous session losses while the KOSPI (-1.05%) is retreating, bucking the regional trend. S&P 500 (-0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.16%) futures are trading slightly lower.
Coming back to China, export growth surpassed market expectations in April with exports rebounding +1.5% y/y (v/s +1.3% expected) after falling -7.5% in March, its first contraction since November. Imports increased +8.4% (v/s +4.7% expected), reversing the prior month’s -1.9% decline. April trade surplus stood at US$72.4 billion, compared with US$58.6 billion in March.
Moving to Japan, the latest salary data showed that real wages fell -2.5% y/y in March (v/s -1.4% expected), notching the sharpest drop in four months and extending the streak of declines to exactly 24 months. It followed the previous month’s -1.8% drop, as the rising cost of living outpaced nominal wages. Nominal wages rose +0.6% y/y in March, slowing from a downwardly revised +1.4% increase seen in February.
Elsewhere, government bonds are seeing losses in Asia with yields notably higher in Australia, New Zealand and Japan. As I type, 10yr government bond yields are over +7bps higher in Australia and New Zealand with 10yr JGB yields is +2.9bps higher at +0.90%, not far from the multi-year highs seen briefly in January.
There wasn’t much data yesterday, although German industrial production fell by -0.4% in March (vs. -0.7% expected), whilst Italian retail sales were unchanged (vs. +0.1% expected). Separately in the US, weekly data from the MBA showed that the contract rate on a 30yr mortgage was down -11bps to 7.18% over the week ending May 3, ending a run of four consecutive weekly increases.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision and Governor Bailey’s press conference. Other speakers will include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE chief economist Pill. Otherwise in the US, we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims, and there’s a 30yr Treasury auction taking place.
2B European Opening Report
US equity futures lower, Gilts pressured ahead of the BoE and USD/JPY nears 156 – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 05:57 AM
European equities are mixed, Stateside futures lower with slight underperformance in the RTY
Dollar is firmer, G10s in the red and USD/JPY now just shy of 156.00
Bonds pressured in a continuation of recent action; Gilts underperform slightly ahead of the BoE
Crude is firmer, XAU flat and base metals mostly lower
Looking ahead, US IJC, NZ Manufacturing PMI, BoE Policy Announcement, BoE DMP, Banxico Policy Announcement, Comments from Fed’s Daly, BoE’s Bailey & Pill, ECB’s Cipollone & de Guindos
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.2%) are mixed and unable to find direction, taking lead from an indecisive session in APAC trade with newsflow somewhat light thus far on account of Ascension Day.
European sectors are mixed and with the breadth of the market fairly narrow, though with the exception of Autos, which has been weighed on by Mercedes-Benz (-5.5%). Energy is found at the top of the pile, propped up by broader strength in crude prices.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.5%) are in the red, with slight underperformance in the RTY continuing the weakness seen in the prior session. In terms of stock specifics, Arm (-9%) is lower in the pre-market, despite beating on top/bottom line, though its guidance failed to impress investors & Tesla (-1.5%) on reports around China job reductions.
Goldman Sachs raises 12-month FTSE 100 cash target to 8,800 from 8,200 (last close 8,354)
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
USD is firmer vs. all peers in quiet newsflow with the DXY eclipsing yesterday’s 105.64 best. Interim resistance ahead of the 106 mark comes via the 2nd May high at 105.89.
EUR is once again on the backfoot vs. the USD in a third consecutive session of losses. Currently trading within a 1.0751-27 range.
Pound is softer vs. the broadly stronger USD but flat vs. the EUR. BoE looming large for the pair with markets on the lookout for any hints of a move in June. If this materialises, yesterday’s low sits at 1.2468 with the MTD low just below at 1.2466. To the upside, 1.25 would be the immediate target with the 200DMA at 1.2542.
JPY unaffected by ongoing jawboning from Japanese officials and is the marginal laggard across the majors. 155.84 the session high thus far for USD/JPY.
Antipodeans are both relatively contained vs. the USD with macro drivers on the light side. AUD/USD is consolidating around its 100DMA after two sessions of losses and respecting yesterday’s 0.6557-99 range. NZD/USD a touch softer.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2238 (prev. 7.1016).
Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.50%, as expected, whereby 5 members voted in favour of a 25bps cut and 4 members voted for a 50bps reduction. The committee unanimously judged that the uncertain global scenario and the domestic scenario, marked by resilient economic activity and de-anchored expectations, require greater caution. It also stated that monetary policy should continue being contractionary until the consolidation of both the disinflation process and the anchoring of expectations around the targets.
USTs are softer, in a continuation of the general bearish tone that was in place yesterday and one that appears to be driven by a pause-for-breath from the post-NFP move, lack of geopolitical escalation, relatively average 10yr before today’s 30yr and an increase in corporate issuance activity.
Gilts are pressured ahead of the BoE policy announcement. Gilts are toward the 97.50 trough and are underperforming EGBs somewhat, underperformance that appears to be a function of the UK catching up to the relatively average US 10yr auction late on Tuesday.
Bunds are softer, with action and drivers perhaps a touch thinner thus far on account of Ascension Day. Bunds down to a 130.90 base which marks a new low for the week and has taken the 10yr yield back to the 2.50% mark
Firmer trade across energy contracts after futures settled with modest gains on Wednesday amid tailwinds from crude stocks drawing more than anticipated. Brent Jul’24 sits at the upper end of a USD 83.71-84.25/bbl range.
Mixed trade across precious metals with spot silver the outperformer, spot palladium the laggard, and spot gold flat. XAU is contained to a current USD 2,307.59-2,319.85/oz intraday range, within yesterday’s USD 2,303.75-2,321.53/oz range.
Base metals have turned lower since European traders entered the fray amid the cautious risk tone coupled with a rising Dollar.
Iraq sets the June 2024 Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia at USD +1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, via SOMO; to North and South America at -0.65/bbl vs ASCO; to Europe at -3.35/bbl vs dated Brent
US GOP Rep. Greene pushed for a vote to remove House Speaker Johnson which prompted House Majority Leader Scalise to introduce a motion to shelve the effort to oust Speaker Johnson, while the House then voted 359 to 43 to prevent Johnson’s removal.
Tesla (TSLA) escalates China job cuts with more layoffs this week, via Bloomberg. Shares -1.5% pre-market
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
Yemeni Houthis targeted two ships with rockets in the Gulf of Aden yesterday, according to the spokesperson.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation quoting a military source: Israel must reconsider its military plans in Rafah after Biden’s statements”, according to Sky News Arabia
MIDDLE EAST
US President Biden said if Israel goes into Rafah, he won’t supply them with weapons and artillery shells, while he added that Israel will not get their support if they go into those population centres and that bombs the US had supplied to Israel and now paused have been used to kill civilians. Biden also commented that Israel has not gone over the red line yet, while he is working with Arab states that are prepared to build Gaza and prepared to help transition to a two-state solution.
Hamas senior official said the movement sticks to its approval of the truce proposal.
Egyptian media said Israel deleted the phrase ‘permanent ceasefire’ and kept it ‘sustainable’, while Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Popular Front are participating in negotiations and are open to maturing and succeeding the Egyptian effort to reach a deal. Furthermore, work is underway to overcome the controversial points during the negotiations, which will be completed on Thursday, according to Asharq News.
Israeli senior officials warned their US counterparts that the Biden administration’s decision to pause a weapons shipment to Israel could jeopardise hostage negotiations, according to two sources briefed on the issue told Axios’ Ravid.
Syria shot down Israeli missiles fired from Golan Heights towards Damascus’s surroundings.
Adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said Tehran will have to change its nuclear doctrine if its existence is threatened and has the capability to build a nuclear weapon, according to SNN.
OTHER
Ukraine drone attack sparked a fire and damaged oil tanks at a refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar, according to regional officials.
Russian President Putin says tactical nuclear weapon drills are planned, according to Interfax.
Russia’s Gazprom says its Salavat plant was attacked by a drone but the plant is working normally, according to Ria
CRYPTO
Bitcoin softer on the session and holds just shy of USD 61k, whilst Ethereum unable to climb back above USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed as the region took its cue from the indecisive performance stateside owing to mixed earnings and as markets await the next major catalysts, while the somewhat mixed but improved Chinese trade data had little impact.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and financials with the latter pressured after Australia’s largest lender CBA reported a decline in profits.
Nikkei 225 recovered from an early dip with trade contained as participants digested BoJ rhetoric and soft wages.
Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were underpinned amid resilience in the tech sector and after China’s eastern city of Hangzhou lifted all home purchase restrictions, although there were headwinds from default concerns as Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) failed to make coupon payments on a yuan-denominated bond due today but still has a grace period.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC said it could either buy or sell treasury bonds in the secondary market depending on market conditions, as such trades can be used to manage liquidity, according to Reuters.
China’s eastern city of Hangzhou lifted all home purchase restrictions, according to its housing authority.
Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) said it cannot make payments on a yuan-denominated bond, while it aims to pay onshore coupons due today and additional interests by May 13th. Furthermore, it stated that if it fails to make payments within the grace period, China Bond Insurance Co. will undertake credit enhancement obligations and it is still raising funds due to sales recovery lagging expectations.
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the US could ban Chinese-connected vehicles or impose guardrails, while it was separately reported that US Senator Brown is seeking a US ban on all Chinese internet-connected vehicles, according to Bloomberg.
Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia are exploring an ETF to track Hong Kong stock indices, while Hong Kong is working with several financial institutions to develop the ETF and the government is considering establishing an economic and trade office in Riyadh.
BoJ Summary of Opinions from the April meeting noted that a member stated if trend inflation accelerates, the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing but an accommodative financial environment is likely to continue for the time being and a member said if forecasts under quarterly report are met, interest rates might rise to levels higher than markets currently price in. It was also stated that one option would be to hike rates moderately in accordance with economic, price and financial developments to avoid a shock from an abrupt policy shift. Furthermore, a member said they must hike rates at an appropriate time as the likelihood of achieving forecasts heightens and a member said the BoJ must deepen the debate on the timing and pace of a future rate hike.
BoJ Governor Ueda said a low real rate supports the economy and inflation, while he added that they need to monitor FX and oil for real wages. Ueda also stated the BoJ could adjust the degree of monetary accommodation via rate hikes if trend inflation accelerates gradually, as well as noted that a sharp, one-sided yen fall is undesirable and bad for the economy. Furthermore, he reiterated if FX volatility affects or risks affecting trend inflation, the BoJ must respond with monetary policy and will scrutinise the recent weak yen in guiding monetary policy.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while they are closely watching FX moves and will take thorough response in forex. Suzuki also stated they will take all necessary measures and continue to analyse the FX impact on the economy and livelihoods and take appropriate action.
Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on intervention and if necessary, they will take appropriate action and are ready for currency intervention at any time, while he added that comments about Japan’s limitations are wrong when asked about FX intervention reserves.
Nissan (7201 JT) FY23/24 (JPY): Net Profits 426.65bln (+92.3% Y/Y), Operating Profit 568.72bln (+50.8%), Recurring Profits 702.16bln (+36.2%); Sees FY24 global retail sales at 3.7mln and North America sales of 1.43mln.
China is said to be considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend taxes on Hong Kong stocks bought via Stock Connect, Bloomberg sources say
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Apr) 72.35B vs. Exp. 77.5B (Prev. 58.55B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD) (Apr) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -7.5%); Imports 8.4% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. -1.9%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY) (Apr) 513.5B (Prev. 415.9B)
Japanese Overall Labour Cash Earnings YY (Mar) 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.8%)
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
Bank of England keeps rates unchanged but indicates that it must lower them eventually as their economy craters
(zerohedge)
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged But Edges Closer To Cutting As Deputy Governor Calls For Easing
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 07:28 AM
With both the Swiss SNB and Swedish Riksbank recently starting rate cuts, many were wondering if the BOE would be next to join the easing cycle. And while it did not, instead keeping rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth straight meeting, in line with what investors and economists had been expecting, the central bank did indicate it is on course to cut rates from a 16 year high over the coming months alongside its European peers as two of the nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee, including the deputy governor, voted to lower the key rate to 5%.
Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined external member Swati Dhingra in calling for an immediate cut in the base rate from its current level of 5.25%. The other seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee preferred no change, saying they needed more evidence that inflation will be subdued.
It was the sixth meeting running that the UK central bank left its benchmark lending rate firmly in territory it describes as restrictive, aiming to bear down on wage and price pressures that reached a four-decade high in late 2022. Forecasts released with the decision suggested the BOE will have to reduce rates in the coming months, probably before a general election widely expected in the autumn.
The BOE will next meet in June, and then again in August. A cut at either meeting would likely see the BOE move before the Federal Reserve, which is now facing the prospect of keeping rates higher for longer. Cutting before the Fed would risk weakening the pound sterling against the U.S. dollar and pushing prices of imported goods and services higher. But waiting too long could delay an economic recovery and lead to job losses.
“We’ve had encouraging news on inflation, and we think it will fall close to our 2% target in the next couple of months,” Bailey said in a statement Thursday. “We need to see more evidence that inflation will stay low before we can cut interest rates. I’m optimistic that thing are moving in the right direction.”
Inflation in the U.K. has fallen steadily over recent months, and the BOE said it likely hit its 2% target in April, though official figures won’t be released until May 22. By contrast, inflation readings from the U.S. have been hotter than expected for a number of months, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach to future policy decisions.
The BOE expects inflation to pick up again toward the end of this year, and fall again in the second half of 2025. The bank”s policymakers forecast that inflation will be just below their 2% target in mid-2026 even if they cut interest rates at the pace expected by investors. That indicates that the central bank is comfortable with the trajectory for its key rate expected by investors, who see August as the most likely month for a first move, with two further cuts by mid-2025 and additional moves to 3.75% by the second quarter of 2027.
In the context of developed central banks, both Switzerland and Sweden have already lowered their key interest rates for the first time since the inflation surge began in 2021, while the European Central Bank has strongly indicated that it will cut in early June.
The likely divergence in policy settings reflects differing economic fortunes. While the U.S. economy has grown rapidly over the last 18 months, the U.K. and much of the rest of Europe stalled following the surge in energy and food prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Still, there are signs that the U.K. is starting to recover from that shock. Economic output fell in the final six months of last year, but the BOE estimates it rose again in the first three months of 2024 and will do so again in the current quarter. The central bank raised its forecast for growth this year to 0.5% from 0.25%, and its forecast for next year to 1% from 0.75%. It attributed the stronger outlook to higher-than-expected population growth.
Policymakers are increasingly confident that growth can pick up without pushing inflation above their target. They have worried that wages would continue to rise rapidly in a tight jobs market, preventing a cooling in the pace of price rises for labor-intensive services.
Gilts rose and the pound fell after the decision. Traders briefly priced a 50% possibility for the first 25 basis-point cut to come next month, and continued to fully priced in a cut by August. Markets now imply a total of 57 basis points of cuts through 2024, compared to 54 basis points before. Still, considering the thrust of the BoE’s communication, UBS writes that it is “surprising” market pricing hasn’t shifted further towards a June cut – especially since Governor Bailey has indicated it’s up for consideration, commenting that the BoE is likely to cut rates in the quarters ahead, possibly by more than the markets are currently expecting. June prices around 14bp against 13bp heading into the MPC.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL/HAMAS///RAFAH/USA
Pay attention to the Lindsay Graham vs Austin testimony
(zerohedge)
Biden Says He’ll Halt Offensive Weapons To Israel If It Invades Gaza
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 – 08:25 PM
Update(2025ET): President Biden spoke to CNN’s Erin Burnett on Wednesday, and in the interview he issued some of the most significant warnings to America’s closest Middle East ally to date, telling Israel that he’s ready to halt offensive weapons transfers if its military launches a full invasion of Rafah.
“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden said. “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah — they haven’t gone in Rafah yet — if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities — that deal with that problem.”
This is being widely interpreted to include all offensive weapons like bombs and artillery shells. He spelled it out in the following:
“We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks that came out of the Middle East recently,” Biden told CNN. “But it’s, it’s just wrong. We’re not going to — we’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”
As The Hill underscores these comments constitute “the first time he has explicitly threatened to cut off the shipment of offensive weapons to the U.S. ally.”
Biden says for the first time that U.S. bombs provided to Israel have been used to kill civilians in Gaza. “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs,” he tells
Earlier in the day the State Department had previewed the new ‘warning’ to Israel over Rafah, saying that it is a decision the White House is still mulling (namely, whether to expand the pause on arms shipments beyond the initial one already paused).
So far, Israel has spoken about the Rafah op as ‘limited’ in scope, likely as a way to assuage Washington’s fears about scenes of a humanitarian nightmare and catastrophe unfolding. Pressure is growing on Biden ahead of the November election given Progressives and some of his base are peeling off in droves, and the persistent campus protests.
Meanwhile there appears to have already been at least a partial invasion of the eastern part of Rafah city:
US defense secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed while testifying before a congressional subcommittee on Wednesday that the Biden administration has paused an arms shipment to Israel, which reportedly includes large bombs and other ammunition being put on hold for transfer.
“We’ve been very clear … from the very beginning that Israel shouldn’t launch a major attack into Rafah without accounting for and protecting the civilians that are in that battlespace,” Austin told US lawmakers. “We’ve not made a final determination on how to proceed with that shipment [of weapons],” the Pentagon chief said.
He added the caveat that the paused transfer in question remains separate from the supplemental aid package for Israel that was passed last month.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan has called the move “very disappointing”. President Biden “can’t say he is our partner in the goal to destroy Hamas, while on the other hand delay the means meant to destroy Hamas,” Erdan said the same day as Austin’s testimony.
Austin did still emphasize, “My final comment is that we are absolutely committed to continuing to support Israel in its right to defend itself.”
Separately on Wednesday the State Department hinted that following the initial paused shipment, the US could extend the temporary ban to include more arms and ammo shipments.
Spokesman Matthew Miller says cited concerns over how Israel conducts itself in the Rafah operation. The White House has said it does not back an Israel ground offensive into the refugee-packed southern city.
“When you see the results of the campaign to date, you see too many Palestinians die. We have been clear for some time the results are unacceptable,” Miller told a press briefing. “We’ve paused one shipment.… We are reviewing other potential weapons systems. I’m not going to get into the underlying details here.”
Watching CQ Brown trying desperately not to get tricked into saying into a mic that he is pro the bombing of Hiroshima was not something I expected to see this morning
Quote
CSPAN
@cspan
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11h
“If we stop weapons necessary to destroy the enemies of state of Israel at a time of great peril, we will pay a price. This is obscene. It is absurd. Give Israel what they need to fight the war they can’t afford to lose. This is Hiroshima & Nagasaki on steroids” @LindseyGrahamSC
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1,783 Views
Meanwhile, the outspoken Iran hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham had this bizarre and highly theoretical exchange with Defense Secretary Austin as well as Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Charles Q. Brown Jr.:
GRAHAM: Would you have supported dropping the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki? General Brown, to end World War II?
BROWN JR: Well Senator, I think it is based on the situation —
GRAHAM: Well, we know I mean, it happened, we know. I’m not asking, they did it. Do you think that was disproportionate?
BROWN JR: It was —
GRAHAM: Do you, in hindsight, do you think that was the right decision for America to drop two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities in question?
BROWN JR: Well, I’ll tell you, it stopped the world war.
GRAHAM: Okay. Well, so. Do you agree, General Austin? If you’d been around, would you say drop them?
AUSTIN: I agree with the chairman here.
GRAHAM: I mean, if you were if we go back in time says, hey, we got two atomic bombs, should we drop them? What would you say?
AUSTIN: Well, you know, I think the leadership was interested in curtailing —
GRAHAM: What’s Israel interested in? Do you believe Iran really wants to kill all the Jews if they could? The Iranian regime. Do you believe Hamas is serious when they say we’ll keep doing it over and over again? Do you agree that they will if they can?
AUSTIN: I do.
GRAHAM: Okay. Alright. Do you believe that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization also bent on the destruction of the Jewish state?
AUSTIN: Hezbollah is a terrorist organization.
GRAHAM: Okay, so Israel’s been hit in the last few weeks by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas dedicated to their destruction. And you’re telling me you’re going to tell them how to fight the war? And what they can and can’t use when everybody around them wants to kill all the Jews. And you’re telling me that if we withhold weapons in this fight — the existential fight for the life of the Jewish state — it won’t send the wrong signal? Do you still think it was a good idea, General Austin, to get out of Afghanistan?
AUSTIN: I support the president’s decision.
GRAHAM: Yeah, I think you do. I think it was a disastrous decision. If we stop weapons necessary to destroy the enemies of the State of Israel at a time of great peril, we will pay a price. This is obscene. It is absurd. Give Israel what they need to fight the war. They can’t afford to lose. This is Hiroshima and Nagasaki on steroids.
Is the Senator from South Carolina actually suggesting Israel might need to nuke the Gaza Strip?
END
Biden, the idiot confirms he is halting USA weapons for political purposes
(Jerusalem Post)
Biden confirms he’s halting US weapons shipments to Israel in CNN interview
Biden told CNN that civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of US bombs and other ways Israel goes after population centers.
US President Joe Biden departs the White House for Wilmington, Delaware, in Washington, US, May 3, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/EVELYN HOCKSTEIN)
US President Joe Biden warned Israel – for the first time — that he’d halt US weapons shipments earmarked for Gaza if the IDF embarks on a major military operation against Hamas in Rafah.
“I’ve made it clear that if they [Israel] go into Rafah… I’m not supplying the weapons that have historically been used to deal with Rafah,” Biden told CNN while campaigning in Wisconsin for re-election in November.
“We’ve held up one shipment,” Biden explained to CNN.
“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they [Israel] go after population centers” in Gaza, Biden stressed to CNN.
US President Joe Biden (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) (credit: FLASH90)
Securing Israeli security while denying munitions
He underscored the US commitment to Israel’s security pointing to the unprecedented maneuver last month, in which the armies of America, Jordan, Great Britain, France, and Israel worked together to defend the Jewish state from an Iranian drone and missile attack.
“We going to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks like [the one that] came out in the Middle East recently.”
“We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’ve walked away from its ability to wake war in those areas [Rafah],” he stated.
Biden said that what Israel has done so far in Rafah does not constitute a major military operation in that southern part of the enclave.
What the IDF has done in Rafah, he said, has created problems with neighboring Egypt, he explained.
The US has argued, already since November, that Israel has done enough to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza. For months, officials across Biden’s administration at the State Department and Pentagon have held meetings and phone calls pleading with their Israeli counterparts to take a more targeted approach in Gaza.
It has been particularly opposed to a Rafah operation, which the US fears would create a humanitarian catastrophe because over 1.3 million Palestinians are located in that area, many of whom fled there in the early stages of the war to escape bombing in the north.
Biden told CNN that he opposed the violent nature of the protests on US campuses against the Gaza war, particularly the manner in which it targets Jewish students.
“There’s a legitimate right to free speech and protest,” Biden said, adding that the students, “have a right to do that.” He stressed, however, that “there’s not a legitimate right to use hate speech” or to “threaten Jewish students” or block their access to class.
“That’s against the law. It’s against the law” he said.
He described those actions as antisemitic and deplored its occurrence seven decades after the Holocaust.
Everyone has forgotten October 7, Biden said, as he referred to the Hamas attack against Israel in which over 1,200 people were killed and another 252 kidnapped.
He recalled one horrific story from that day in which Palestinian terrorists had roped a mother and daughter together and set them on fire.
Biden said that in response he had visited Israel in October and even then had warned it not to make the same mistakes the US had made in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Al Qaeda attack on the Twin Towers in New York.
“We want to get [Osama] bin Laden and we’ll help you [Hamas leader Yahya[ Sinwar. It made sense to go get Bin Laden, but it made no sense to try to unify Afghanistan,” he stressed.
Biden spoke of the importance of focusing on the day after the Gaza war when Hamas would no longer control the enclave but offered no suggestion as to how to oust Hamas from the enclave.
“We got to think through what is happening after Gaza after this is over.. I’ve been working with Arab states I won’t mention them because I don’t want to get them in trouble.
“But five leaders are prepared to help rebuild Gaza prepared to help transition it to a two-state solution.. to maintain the security and peace while they’re working [the establishment of a] Palestinian Authority is real and not corrupt.”
END
this ought to be fun;
(ZERO HEDGE)
Republicans Ready Sanctions On World Court If It Issues Arrest Warrants For Israelis
Republican members of the US House of Representatives are preparing a sanctions package targeting International Criminal Court (ICC) officials as a “precaution” against potential arrest warrants of Israeli officials for war crimes committed in Gaza, according to Axios.
“We want to emphasize to [ICC prosecutor Karim Khan] that going down this road of arrest warrants is a really bad idea, and it’s going to blow up the relationship,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul told the US news outlet.
“We’re not sure if the arrest warrants are imminent, but it’s sort of a precaution to let them know that, if they do, we have this legislation ready to go. It won’t be put on the floor unless we have to,” he added.
McCaul emphasized the new package would come as a “companion” to legislation introduced last February in the Senate that seeks to sanction ICC officials “involved in probes of US allies who are not ICC members, such as Israel.”
The report by Axios comes on the heels of a harshly worded letter sent by a group of Republican senators to Khan, warning him against prosecuting Israeli officials for alleged genocide in Gaza.
“Target Israel and we will target you,” the senators tell Khan, adding that they will “sanction your employees and associates, and bar you and your families from the United States.”
The letter, a copy of which was obtained by the Zeteo website, concludes: “You have been warned.” It contains the signatures of 12 Republican senators, including Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz.
Neither Washington nor Tel Aviv are among the 124 states that remain signatories of the ICC Rome Statute of 1998. Nevertheless, the occupied Palestinian territories were admitted to the court with the status of a member state in April 2015.
US officials have been scrambling to protect Israeli authorities from war crimes prosecution ever since reports revealed the ICC was looking into the atrocities committed in Gaza.
Last week, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers threatened the ICC with “retaliation” following a virtual meeting in which they expressed their “concerns” to court officials. In response, Khan condemned the “threats of retaliation” from the US.
“That independence and impartiality are undermined, however, when individuals threaten to retaliate… should the office, in fulfillment of its mandate, make decisions about investigations or cases falling within its jurisdiction,” he added. Khan, a British citizen, demanded that “all attempts to impede, intimidate or improperly influence its officials cease immediately.”
ICC prosecutors recently interviewed the staff of Gaza’s two largest hospitals, Al-Shifa Hospital in the north and Al-Nasser Hospital in the south – both of which were decimated by the Israeli army, reportedly leaving behind hundreds of corpses buried in mass graves.
In 2002, two years after Washington withdrew from the Rome Statute, then-president George W Bush signed into law the “American Servicemembers Protection Act of 2002,” which authorizes the use of military force in the Netherlands to “liberate” any US citizen or citizen of a US-allied country held by the ICC.
“The office seeks to engage constructively with all stakeholders whenever such dialogue is consistent with its mandate under the Rome Statute to act independently and impartially,” the ICC prosecutor said in a statement.
END
ISRAEL/RAFAH//
There is no way that Israel will agree to a regional peace deal
(Substack)
Biden’s Partial Arms Embargo On Israel Is Aimed At Pressuring It Into A Regional Peace Deal
Many observers from the Mainstream Media and the Alt-Media Community alike were shocked when Defense Secretary Austin confirmed on Wednesday during a congressional testimony that the US had withheld “one shipment of high payload munitions” on the pretext that they could be used in Rafah. Biden then expanded on this newfound policy later in the day when declaring that “We’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells” if the IDF goes into Rafah’s population centers.
Nobody should have been surprised, however, since this piece here from mid-March about why Biden endorsed Schumer’s call for regime change in Israel explained the double game that his administration is playing. In brief, domestic electoral considerations influenced his team into ramping up last spring’s pressure campaign against Bibi, which was initially meant to punish him for ideological reasons but is now also aimed at pressuring Israel into the regional peace deal that it’s reportedly trying to broker.
Interested readers can learn more about it here, with the pertinence being that the US envisages Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel in exchange for Israel agreeing to Palestinian statehood. In furtherance of that grand strategic goal, which would reshape West Asian geopolitics, the US is dangling privileged nuclear energy and military partnerships in front of Saudi Arabia while gradually increasing its pressure on Israel. It also reportedly told Qatar to expel Hamas’ political wing if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire.
There’ll be those activist-minded members of the Mainstream Media and the Alt-Media Community who’ll pick and choose which element of this policy to focus on in advance of their ideological agenda but the fact of the matter is that the entire whole represents a comprehensive diplomatic push. The US sees an opportunity to restore some of its lost regional influence through these means, which its policymakers believe will decelerate the recent expansion of Sino-Russo influence in West Asia.
Withholding a single arms shipment from Israel is a purely symbolic gesture that comes way too late to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe that unfolded in Gaza over the past eight months of total war, but it still signals that more forthcoming shipments might be withheld if Israel continues its Rafah operation. In that event, bilateral relations would worsen if Bibi doesn’t accept a compromise solution, which he’d be reluctant to do since that would discredit him after he promised to completely destroy Hamas.
Therein lies the problem, however, since that objective can only be achieved through military means that would perpetuate the Palestinians’ suffering and thus delay the deal that the US hopes to broker with the Saudis. The Kingdom won’t recognize Israel so long as the conflict continues, and a greater civilian death toll than the already presently high one could make it even more difficult to do so once the war finally ends. That deal is integral to Israel’s interests, but so too is Hamas’ destruction, ergo the dilemma.
Nevertheless, provided that Israel has adequate stockpiles to continue its campaign, then Bibi might gamble that he can destroy Hamas’ military wing at least and then play on the Saudis’ equal interest in the previously mentioned deal to eventually make it happen sometime after the war ends. That can’t be taken for granted though since the US wouldn’t have symbolically withheld is recent shipment nor would Biden have threatened to withhold all offensive arms if it thought this was truly the case.
It therefore remains to be seen what’ll happen, but the US expects that Bibi will indeed be pressured by this newfound policy into compromising on Gaza, which could discredit his leadership among the ultra-nationalist members of his coalition on whom his government depends. Basically, the US wants to kill three birds with one stone by bringing an end to this war for domestic electoral reasons, facilitating Bibi’s departure from office, and brokering an Israeli-Saudi peace deal for restoring its lost regional influence.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Biden Accused Of Helping Hamas As Israelis Fume Over Threat To Halt Weapons
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 11:00 AM
Israeli leaders are furious after the evening prior CNN published an interview with President Biden wherein he laid out that the US will withhold all offensive weapons from Israel if it moves forward with a full-scale invasion of Rafah.
In a message to both Israel’s “enemies and best friends” – clearly a reference to Washington – Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday vowed that Israel “will achieve [its] goals in the north and south.”
“I say from here to Israel’s enemies and its best friends: The State of Israel cannot be subdued — not the IDF, not the Defense Ministry, not the defense establishment, not the State of Israel. We will stand, we will achieve our goals, we will hit Hamas, we will destroy Hezbollah, and we will bring security,” Gallant said.
“Whatever the cost, we will ensure the existence of the State of Israel and remember well the directive we signed just a week ago during the Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony, the words ‘Never Again.’ For me, it’s not just a directive, it’s a work plan. This is how the defense establishment will work and this is how the IDF will work,” he added.
“We have no choice, we have no other country. We will do whatever is necessary, and I repeat – whatever is necessary, in order to defend the citizens of Israel, to remove the evil threats against us, and to stand up to those who attempt to destroy us.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also responded, but just as with Gallant he has not named Biden or the United States directly…
ISRAEL/GAZA STRIP
Israel strikes in Zeitoun area of the Gaza strip
IDF operates in Zeitoun, strikes numerous terror targets
Guided by intelligence information, Israel Air Force jets struck some 25 terror targets, among which were observation posts, military buildings, tunnels, and sniper posts.
IDF troops and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) forces led by the 99th Division operated in the Zeitoun area in the center of the Gaza Strip to destroy terror infrastructure and eliminate terrorists, the military said on Thursday.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia is continuing to hit power structures and this will probably lead to a nationwide power outage
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Warns Nationwide Power Outages Coming Amid ‘Massive’ Russian Strikes
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Large-scale Russian aerial strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has become an almost daily event, but Wednesday saw a “massive” wave of Russian missiles launched on vital power grid sites, according to Ukraine authorities.
Ukraine is now warning of nationwide power cuts. “Russians have launched a new massive attack on thermal and hydroelectric power plants,” the state-owned Ukrenergo energy operator announced. “There may be power cuts for household and industrial consumers across Ukraine… due to new damage to the equipment of Ukrainian power plants caused by Russian strikes.”
Energy facilities across six regions were targeted, with Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko saying, “The enemy has not abandoned plans to deprive Ukrainians of light” following “another massive attack on our energy industry.”
This latest attack saw at least three thermal plants belonging to the country’s largest private energy operator DTEK badly damaged.
Russia has sustained these strikes ostensibly in response to Ukraine forces’ ongoing cross-border attacks which have also targeted Russian energy. Moscow upped its air attacks on Ukraine following repeat Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.
Russian authorities further said Wednesday that the death toll from a cross-border drone attack on the Belgorod region which happened Monday has risen to eight killed.
A drone strike on the Russian village of Berezovka, which lies less than 10km from the Ukrainian border, killed a group of workers for the agricultural company Agro-Belogorye and wounded 32 others.
“Another civilian has died from the drone attack in the Borisovsky district on May 6,” the region’s governor said Wednesday on Telegram.
The Zelensky government has meanwhile continued to complain that weapons from the West are not being transferred to Ukraine fast enough. Kiev is still waiting for a stalled F-16 program to assist with defending the skies.
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Officials have also been demanding Patriot missiles. While Spain and Germany have been the latest to transfer a few Patriot batteries, Zelensky has still warned that it’s not enough to defend Ukrainian cities and vital infrastructure from Russian attacks.
On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmygal unveiled a new government task force to “coordinate work on overcoming the consequences of Russian energy terror.”
Athletes in US (7), UK (2), Mexico, Cuba, Brazil (2), Argentina, Germany (2), Norway, Malta, S. Africa, Turkey (2), & Russia; coaches in US & Germany; & and more
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscribe
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
This says a mouthful!!!
AstraZeneca Begins Worldwide Withdrawal of COVID-19 Vaccine
AstraZeneca recently admitted in a UK court document that its shot ‘can, in very rare cases, cause’ blood clots and low platelets.
Clinical pharmacist Ellie Morton prepares to administer the Oxford AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine at the community vaccination centre at Kingston University’s Penrhyn Road campus in London, England, on March 12, 2021. (Chris Jackson/Getty Images)
AstraZeneca has commenced a global withdrawal of its COVID-19 vaccine on Tuesday, citing a “surplus” of updated jabs for new variants, months after acknowledging its rare risk of serious side effects.
The pharmaceutical giant’s jab, Vaxzevria, is no longer authorized in the European Union as of May 7, after AstraZeneca requested the withdrawal of its “marketing authorization” on March 5.
The removal of its authorization comes just weeks after the company admitted in a UK court document that its shot “can, in very rare cases, cause” blood clots and low platelets, a rare but serious condition known as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TSS). The company had originally denied a causal link.
However, AstraZeneca did not cite the admission as contributing to its decision. Instead, it stated that there was now an “oversupply of updated vaccines” that target new variants of the virus that causes COVID-19.
In a statement to The Epoch Times, AstraZeneca said they “are incredibly proud of the role Vaxzevria played in ending the global pandemic. According to independent estimates, over 6.5 million lives were saved in the first year of use alone and over three billion doses were supplied globally.
“As multiple, variant COVID-19 vaccines have since been developed there is a surplus of available updated vaccines. This has led to a decline in demand for Vaxzervria, which is no longer being manufactured or supplied. AstraZeneca has therefore taken the decision to initiate withdrawal of the Marketing Authorisations for Vaxzevria within Europe.”
This time it will be done quick, fast, and bullet proofed…WHO will reform and fix its corruption and revamp FIRST, its the ONLY way Trump will even look at them; MONEY will be pulled fast!
I have been told (on anonymity) that Trump will withdraw all funding from WHO as soon as elected and this time will codify it. Discussions already on deck.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Biden’s Handling Of Israel War Has “Tremendously Increased The Risk Of A Fresh Eruption”
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 12:40 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Yesterday saw the Riksbank in Sweden cut rates by 25bp to 3.75% for the first time since 2016 (as Brazil cut 25bp to 10.50% as expected, yet the BoJ opened the door to another tiny June hike). Rate cuts, and a month before the ECB is expected to do the same! As Bloomberg put it, “their choice signals that the domestic situation, with subsiding inflation and a sputtering economy, takes precedence over any concern that moving ahead of bigger peers will lead to another bout of korona weakening that in turn would fuel import prices.” Or that cutting rates doesn’t see speculation and inflation return locally; and/or that the global backdrop doesn’t suddenly do anything (additionally) nasty that would complicate the inflation environment for everyone.
On that latter note, the headlines speak to a dynamic that risks exactly that kind of development, if not immediately then over time.
First, ‘Biden warns Israel he will halt US weapon supplies if it invades Rafah’. The US president doesn’t mean just the $260m of munitions already on hold despite Congressional approval, but most offensive weapons, even if defensive systems such as iron dome interceptors will still flow.
There are few topics less well understood and more passionately championed on both sides that the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, but these points hopefully underline why this US action has a key geopolitical, and potential market, impact.
The US is trying to dictate Israel’s policy, but far too belatedly to please the anti-Israel crowd.
It removes the only pressure-point left to force Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages which it holds (including dual US citizens), displeasing the pro-Israel crowd.
This as a huge political win for Hamas. It leaves Israel with only the recent Hamas-penned deal that would see it hold hostages for longer, retake control of Gaza, and gain the release of high-profile Palestinian prisoners into the West Bank. That latter action would crush the popular standing of the Palestinian Authority, leading to a Hamasification that would undermine both US/Western hopes for Arab states helping rebuild Gaza under a reformed Palestinian Authority and a two-state solution.
This US “offense things bad, defensive things good” strategy is a mirror image of what they have tried and failed with vs. Russia (re: Ukraine) and Iran (re: Israel), among others, so far.
Saudi Arabia will be wondering if a defense alliance with the US is worth it when their future actions might be proscribed by a White House National Security Advisor who a week before 7 October proudly claimed that the Middle East was “the quietest it has been in years.” Other allies in other regions, from Europe to Asia, may also start to wonder how reliable the US is when push really comes to shove.
Israel, seeing this as existential, could ignore the US, creating a rupture between key allies. Or it could pivot to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would be a far more destructive, destabilising conflict: and any US refusal to supply ammunition for that would be a true geopolitical earthquake that would embolden all forces pushing back on the US and its allies further.
In market terms, this doesn’t mean anything for energy prices immediately: indeed, some may wrongly take it as a “de-escalation” signal. However, the underlying pressure on the geopolitical tectonic plates has increased enormously, and the risks of a fresh eruption of some kind –with an inflationary impact of various potential forms (i.e., look at the Houthis)– has increased in tandem.
Second, the IMF’s Gopinath this week stated: “Consider a world divided into three blocs: a U.S. leaning bloc, a China leaning bloc, and a bloc of nonaligned countries.” Which is of course exactly what we did years ago, when almost nobody else in markets was talking about it seriously. While she stresses that “connector countries” like Mexico and Vietnam are key ‘middlemen’ between the US and China, she notes we are seeing signs of real embryonic geopolitical and geoeconomic rupture.
The currency composition of cross-border payments for US-leaning countries is unchanged, but for those China-leaning the CNY share has more than doubled, from around 4% to 8% – and this is not only Russia, but a broader upstream trade commodity finance shift I have flagged before. She notes China’s shift from SWIFT to its own CIPS; central banks’ increased gold purchases for FX reserves; and flags the potential risks of trade fragmentation like Brexit on steroids, financial fragmentation that will see capital flows shift, and even that “the global payment system could become fragmented along geopolitical lines with the emergence of new payment platforms with limited or no interoperability.” Which is what happened in the 1930s, as well as in the Cold War, and which I have flagged as a risk repeatedly for years – and I have stressed that the dollar still wins even in a fractured world order where we all lose.
In a mild scenario, the IMF thinks this could reduce world GDP by 0.2%; in an extreme scenario, losses could be 7%; and low-income countries could experience 4 times the GDP loss of other countries in the event of fragmentation of commodity markets into two blocs. Most of the losses would be due to trade restrictions of agricultural commodities, raising concerns about food security in poorer countries: you think cocoa is volatile now? Again, we did this geopolitical work on agri commodity flows years ago.
Fragmentation of trade in minerals for the green transition would also make the already vastly expensive energy transition even more costly, as these minerals are geographically concentrated and not easily substituted. Again, this is a point made here before.
Understandably, the IMF asks, “So, what can we do to prevent this?” Yet the answer is: “The ideal solution would be to preserve and strengthen the multilateral rules-based global trading system and the international monetary system… and making more progress on dealing with subsidies and national security trade restrictions and developing international rules and norms on… industrial polices… But given where we are today, the ideal may be difficult to achieve.”
So, all the IMF can offer is “to keep open the lines of communication and stay engaged,” and “work together on areas of common interest,” which means little, and “limit harmful unilateral policy actions, including industrial policies” – which are about to expand massively, even in Europe.
Third, US presidential candidate RFK, Junior says that he has a dead worm in his brain and, “I have cognitive problems, clearly. I have short-term memory loss, and I have longer-term memory loss that affects me.” But not to worry, because you have the alternative choice of Joe Biden. Or of Donald Trump.
That all says, “disinflation and rate cuts”, right? So, surely, it’s time to risk doing just that?
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0727 DOWN .0019
USA/ YEN 155.86 UP 0.480 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2459 DOWN .0033
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3725 DOWN .0003(CDN DOLLAR UP 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR .83%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 223 PTS OR 1.22%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.02 %
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: AL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 223.95 OR 1.22%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 25.84 PTS OR 0.83%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.02%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 128.39 PTS OR 0.34%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2316.15
silver:$27.73
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.57 UP 15 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2212 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2237)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.901…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.490% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.656 UP 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.822 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2331.95
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.08
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 27.30 PTS OR 0.33
German Dax : CLOSED UP 188.22 PTS OR 1.02%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 56.24PTS OR .69 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 102.90 OR 0.55%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 187.91 PTS OR 0.27 PTS
WTI Oil price 79.32 12EST/
Brent Oil: 83.87 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.95 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4935 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1790 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0781 UP 0.0034 OR 34 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2529 UP 0.0032 UP 32 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1760 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .907%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.46 UP 0.086/ YEN DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3677 DOWN.0051 //CDN dollar UP 51 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.45
Brent OIL: 84.07
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.4555
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.608%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 4.815
USA dollar index: 105.11 DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 24 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.95 DOWN 0 AND 80//100 roubles
GOLD 2,310.40 3:30 PM
SILVER: 27.33 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 331.37 PTS OR 0.87 %
NASDAQ UP 29.69 PTS OR 0.169 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.78 DOWN 0.22PTS OR 3.37%
GLD: $216.95 UP 3.37 OR 1.58%
SLV/ $25.86 UP .91 OR 3.65%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Gold, Bonds, & Stocks Rip After ‘Bad’ Data On ‘Quietest Day Of The Year’
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 04:00 PM
An ugly jobless claims print was the day’s early catalyst sending yields significantly lower, stocks, gold, oil, and crypto higher and the dollar down with rate-cut expectations re-ignited…
Source: Bloomberg
A dovish shift supported stocks – which had a “squeezey feel” amid very low liquidity…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading desk noted that while yesterday was the lightest notional session all year in the US, today is looking to be even slower (tracking down -2% vs. yesterday), which probably helped the liftathon…
The Dow and Small Caps led the way – up almost 1%, and Nasdaq lagged on the day – barely holding on to green…
This was The Dow’s seventh straight daily gain – the longest win streak since July 2023.
HFs are -7% for sale and lean better for sale in every sector ex- Cons Disc & Macro Products. Supply is most pronounced in Info Tech & Utes which when combined, make up 2/3 of overall HF net supply.
LOs are -11% for sale with notable supply in Fins & REITs while HCare, Mats, Indust & Info Tech are also net for sale. Demand is modest across Cons Disc, Utes & Macro Products
Treasuries were bid across the curve today with very early steepening erased by the close thanks to a strong 30Y auction)…
Source: Bloomberg
A small net inflow into ETFs yesterday supported bitcoin and as the dollar sank, crypto was bid today too…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back above $2340…
Source: Bloomberg
As the dollar dived…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended marginally higher, after chopping around much of the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while fear is gone through Monday, it returns for CPI and vol is pricing in some anxiety next week…
Source: Bloomberg
That ‘7’-handle vol for Monday looks very cheap.
END
MORNING TRADING/
Gold, Stocks, & Bonds Jump As ‘Bad’ Jobs News Reignites Rate-Cut Hopes
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 09:07 AM
The sudden surge in initial jobless claims this morning was met with a significant across-the-market reaction (amid low levels of liquidity – Goldman noted yesterday was the quietest market day this year).
Rate-cut hopes jumped…
Which sent bond yields lower…
…and stocks higher…
The dollar dropped…
…sending gold higher…
This level of ‘data dependence’ in an illiquid market will not end well.
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
The following is quite plausible: the missing 700 billion in phantom debt i.e. buy now and pay later debt
(zerohedge)
The Missing Piece Of The Puzzle: Behind The Inexplicable “Strength” Of US Consumers Is $700 Billion In “Phantom Debt”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 – 10:15 PM
Yesterday we discussed the latest consumer credit data, which revealed that the amount of credit card debt across the US has hit a new record high of $1.337 trillion (even though it appears to have finally hit a brick wall, barely rising in April by the smallest amount since the covid crash), even as the savings rate has tumbled to an all time low.
To be sure, credit card debt is just a small portion (~6%) of the total household debt stack: as the next chart from the latest NY Fed consumer credit report shows, the bulk, or 70%, of US household debt is in the form of mortgages, followed by student loans, auto loans, credit card debt, home equity credit and various other forms. Altogether, the total is a massive $17.5 trillion in total household debt.
But staggering as the mountain of household debt may be, at least we know how huge the problem is; after all the data is public. What is far more dangerous – because we have no clue about its size – is what Bloomberg calls “Phantom Debt“, and we have repeatedly called Buy Now, Pay Later debt. How much of that kind of debt is out there is largely a guess.
Let’s back up: the topic of Buy Now, Pay Later, or installment debt, is hardly new: we have covered it extensively in the past year, as this selection of articles reveals:
But while it is easy to ensnare young, incomeless Americans into the net of installment debt where they will rot as the next generation of debt slaves for the rest of their lives, there is an even more sinister side to this extremely popular form of debt which allows consumers to split purchases into smaller installments: as Bloomberg reports in a lengthy expose on installment debt, the major companies that provide these so called “pay in four” products, such as Affirm Holdings, Klarna Bank and Block’s Afterpay, don’t report those loans to credit agencies. That’s why Buy Now/Pay Later credit has earned a far more ominous nickname:
It’s hard enough for central bankers and Wall Street traders to make sense of the post-pandemic economy with the data available to them. At Wells Fargo & Co., senior economist Tim Quinlan is particularly spooked by the “phantom debt” that he can’t see.
Which is not to say that we have no idea how much “phantom debt” is out there: according to the report, it is projected to reach almost $700 billion globally by 2028, and yet, time and again, the companies that issue it have resisted calls for greater disclosure, even as the market has grown each year since at least 2020. That, as Bloomberg accurately warns, is masking a complete picture of the financial health of American households, which is crucial for everyone from global central banks to US regional lenders and multinational businesses.
In fact, the recent explosion in installment debt may explain why the US consumer remains so resilient even when most conventional economic metrics suggest consumers should be struggling: “Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts.”
Still, cracks are starting to form. First it was Americans falling behind on auto loans. Then credit-card delinquency rates reached the highest since at least 2012, with the share of debts 30, 60 and 90 days late all on the upswing.
And now, there are also signs that consumers are struggling to afford their BNPL debt, too. A recent survey conducted for Bloomberg News by Harris Poll found that 43% of those who owe money to BNPL services said they were behind on payments, while 28% said they were delinquent on other debt because of spending on the platforms.
For Quinlan, a major concern is that economic experts are being “lulled into complacency about where consumers are.”
“People need to be more awake to the risk of BNPL,” he said in an interview.
Well, those who care, are awake – we have written dozens of articles on the danger it poses; the problem is that those who are enabled by this latest mountain of debt – such as the Biden administration which can claim a victory for Bidenomics because the economy is so “strong”, phantom debt be damned – are actively motivated to ignore it.
So why is this latest debt bubble called a “phantom”?
Well, BNPL is a black box largely because of a longstanding blame game among BNPL providers and the three major credit bureaus: TransUnion, Experian and Equifax. The BNPL companies don’t provide data on their installment loans that are split into four payments, which were used by online shoppers to spend an estimated $19.2 billion in the first quarter, according to Adobe Analytics, up 12.3% compared with the same period last year.
The BNPL giants say credit agencies can’t handle their information — and that releasing it could harm customers’ credit scores, which are key to securing mortgages and other loans. The big three bureaus say they’re ready, while two of the major credit scoring firms, VantageScore Solutions and Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO), say they’re equipped to test how the products will affect their figures. Meanwhile, regulation is looming over the industry, but this stalemate has left the status quo mostly in place.
In other words, not only do we not know just how big the BNPL problem is, it is actively masked by credit agencies which can’t accurately calculate the FICO score of tens of millions of Americans, and as a result their credit capacity is artificially boosted with far more debt than they can handle… and that’s why the US consumer has been so “strong” in recent years, defying all conventional credit metrics.
The good news is that despite the tacit pushback of the administration, there has been some signs of progress. Apple earlier this year became the first major BNPL provider to furnish transaction and payment data to Experian. As of now, it provides a snapshot of consumers’ overall debt load from Apple Pay Later transactions, but the information won’t be used for consumer credit scores. In separate statements to Bloomberg, Klarna, Affirm and Block said they want assurance that consumers’ credit scores and their data would be protected before reporting customer information. Representatives for TransUnion, Experian and Equifax said they’ve updated their structures and the data would be secure.
Still, the lack of transparency has researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which publishes a comprehensive quarterly report on the $17.5 trillion in US household debt, convinced they’re missing some of what’s happening in the economy.
“They’ve reached a certain scale that they could impact economists’ assumptions about their economic outlooks,” said Simon Khalaf, Chief Executive Officer of Marqeta Inc., a firm that helps BNPL providers process their payments.
Meanwhile, the pernicious effects of BNPL credit are piling up: the Harris Poll survey conducted last month, provides some crucial clues about how Americans use BNPL. For one, splitting payments into smaller chunks encourages more spending, obviously.
More than half of respondents who use BNPL said it allowed them to purchase more than they could afford, while nearly a quarter agreed with the statement that their BNPL spending was “out of control.” Harris also found that 23% of users said they couldn’t afford the majority of what they bought without splitting payments, while more than a third turned to the services after maxing out credit cards.
The findings also show that the spending, which for more than a third of users has exceeded $1,000, isn’t entirely on big-ticket items. Almost half of those using BNPL say they’ve started, or have considered, using it to pay bills or buy essential items, including groceries.
Translation: Americans are no longer even charging everyday purchases they traditionally used cash and savings to pay for; now they are using installment plans to pay for bread!
It’s not just the lower classes that are abusing BNPL credit: while whatever small pockets of consumer distress have emerged so far in the US, have been chalked up to a bifurcated economy where working class Americans struggle to make ends meet, the survey found that middle-class households are relying on BNPL, too. The shocking punchline: about 42% of those with household income of more than $100,000 report being behind or delinquent on BNPL payments!
“BNPL essentially lets people dig a deeper and deeper hole of credit, which will be harder and harder to climb out of,” said Ed deHaan, a professor of accounting at Stanford Graduate School of Business, adding that it happens “more easily when there’s no transparency.”
Of course, installment debt is nothing new: the option to pay in installments using short-term loans has been around for a ong time, but it exploded in popularity during the pandemic, especially with younger, digitally savvy consumers who gravitated to the services as an alternative to credit cards. The pioneering BNPL companies, including Afterpay, Klarna and Affirm, launched with trendy retailers, partnered with social media influencers and became a common option on apps and online checkouts.
BNPL offers quick credit approvals and lets consumers pay in installments. The first is usually due right away, and the others are often collected once every two weeks for the popular “pay in four” loans. There’s typically no interest or fees, as long as payments are made on time. Like credit card companies, BNPL firms make money on fees from merchants — and some have steep penalties for missed payments.
While normally larger banks would avoid this kind of “new and much more dangerous subprime”, this time is different: the rapid adoption of the products has enticed major financial institutions to offer the option to split payments, even as regulators warn them of the risks. That includes PayPal, U.S. Bancorp and Citizens Financial. Even big banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan have similar capabilities on their credit cards.
The industry has branded itself a financial equalizer. They argue that “soft-credit checks” — when a lender runs a consumer’s credit history without affecting their score — expand credit access to those underserved by traditional lenders, while zero-interest provides a better deal than many cards.
Affirm said its customers have an average outstanding balance of $641, while Afterpay and Klarna put the figure at $250 and $150, respectively. Unfortunately, there is no way to check these numbers. And while the average credit card balance was $6,501 in the third quarter of 2023, according to Experian data, the BNPL balances mean that most Americans can’t even afford a weekly outing to their grocery store without putting it on an installment plan, a truly terrifying scenario.
Critics naturally argue that BNPL is particularly attractive to the financially vulnerable. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has flagged risks to consumers, including surprise late fees and “hidden interest” — or when BNPL purchases are made with credit cards charging high interest rates. The CFPB has also expressed concern about “loan stacking,” when individuals take out several BNPL loans at once with different providers, which is most of them.
Some BNPL services, including Afterpay and Klarna, require borrowers to agree to “mandatory autopayment,” meaning the companies can automatically charge the credit card or bank account on file when a payment is due. Those who link the latter are potentially vulnerable to overdraft fees.
Meanwhile, as rates remains sky high, even Wall Street’s perpetually cheerful analysts are wondering where is all the consumption coming from?
Robust consumer spending and low unemployment rates have many economists convinced the US consumer remains strong, making Wall Street bullish on the economy. But lately, stubbornly persistent inflation has dialed back expectations for imminent interest-rate relief.
That’s set to ramp up pressure on households that are already stretched thin by higher prices for everything from gas and food to rent and apparel. As of the end of December, almost 3.5% of credit-card balances were at least 30 days past due, according to the Philadelphia Fed, the most since the data began in 2012. Nominal card balances also set a new high.
For those who are falling behind, BNPL offers what appears to be a no-brainer decision: space out payments… at least until this last credit buffer fills up and bankruptcy is the only possible outcome.
That was the thinking of Hayden Waschak, a 23-year-old in Pittsburgh. Even though he said it felt “dystopian” to use BNPL to pay for food, he began using Klarna in February to spread out payments on a grocery delivery app. It helped his finances — at first. After he lost his job as a documents processing specialist at University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in March, he relied more heavily on the service. And without any income, he became delinquent on payments and started racking up late charges. He eventually paid off the nearly $200 balance, but he said his credit score dropped.
“Unexpected life events caused me to lose income,” Waschak said. “I ended up paying more than if I had paid for it all at once.”
Meanwhile, the fact that BNPL balances do not count against your credit rating, means users get little upside when it comes to their credit — paying on time won’t help them build up their score. On the other hand, the downside is still there for falling behind: not only can they get charged late fees, but delinquent BNPL loans can be turned over to debt collectors.
The latter is what Fabrizio Lopez said happened to him. He used Affirm to split up a $500 online payment for used-car parts in 2019. The Long Island-based mechanic, who doesn’t have a traditional credit card, said that while he received the items a week later, he never got a bill. That is, until debt collection letters started pouring in from across the US.
Lopez said he primarily relied on cash before that purchase, so the unpaid loan stands out on his credit profile. Now 30, he worries that a the BNPL purchase has created “invisible barriers” to the financial system.
“They hook you with the idea of no interest rates,” he said. “I thought that I would be able to build my credit if I paid it back — I was so wrong.”
He is not the only one who is “so wrong”: just as wrong are all those Panglossian economists at the Fed and Wall Street who believe that the US economy is growing at what the Atlanta Fed today laughably “calculated” was a 4.2% GDP, even as the DOE found that the most accurate indicator of overall economic strength, diesel demand, was the lowest since covid, an glaring paradox… yet glaring to all except those who refuse to see just how rotten the core of the US economy has become, and will be “absolutely shocked” when the next credit crisis destroys tens of millions of Americans drowning in what is now best known as “phantom debt.”
END
Office tower CRE troubles in New York as we approach a one trillion maturity wall
(zerohedge)
Office Tower Turmoil In NYC Worsens Ahead Of Trillion Dollar Maturity Wall
WEDNESDAY, MAY 08, 2024 – 06:55 PM
A combination of factors, including remote work, an exodus of progressive cities, higher interest rates for longer, and diminished credit availability, continues to pressure the office tower market nationwide. The latest example of challenges facing the $20 trillion commercial real estate market comes from New York City.
Bloomberg reports that the $400 million loan backing 1440 Broadway, a 25-story tower at the corner of Broadway and 40th Street in Midtown Manhattan, has fallen into delinquent status.
The loan was bundled into commercial mortgage-backed security called JPMCC 2021-1440.
“One of the loans responsible for this meaningful month-over-month increase was the $399 million 1440 Broadway loan securitized in JPMCC 2021-1440,” JPMorgan analysts led by Chong Sin, Terrell Bobb and John Sim wrote in a note to clients.
The analysts said the deal sponsors “failed to pay the loan’s balloon payment last month, and now the loan is considered non-performing matured.”
According to JPM data, the serious delinquency rate for office loans hit 7% in April, the highest level since the first half of 2017.
1440 Broadway has been plagued with a drop in office space demand. One of its largest tenants, WeWork, downsized after declaring bankruptcy in late 2023. Another top tenant, Macy’s, has struggled with sliding foot traffic because of fewer office workers in the city. On top of this, the high-interest rate environment has pushed up the cost of financing.
Here’s additional color of the property from JPM:
“… The property’s two largest tenants at securitization, WeWork and Macy’s, have presented significant challenges to the continued performance of this loan. At securitization, these two tenants accounted for 70% of the property’s rental income. However, Macy’s vacated the property at the end of its lease term in January 2024. WeWork declared bankruptcy earlier this year but has worked with the property’s sponsors to amend the terms of its lease. WeWork negotiated a 40% decrease in rent as it is now expected to pay just $44 psf for its space in the building as opposed to the $73.26 it was originally paying. WeWork will gradually pay more for its space as the amended lease terms do include steps up in rent. Additionally, WeWork was able to shorten the length of its lease. WeWork’s lease was originally intended to end in 2035 but is now expected to end in 2028. We estimate that the property’s occupancy rate is now at 58% and a 52% decline in gross rental income from the prior year.”
Looking at citywide office occupancy trends, card-swipe data from Katle Systems shows below 50%, an ominous sign office workers aren’t returning in droves.
The CRE mess is far from over. In fact, it is a rolling disaster, with the real fireworks coming later this year if interest rates remain elevated.
In a recent note, we cited Mortgage Bankers Association data showing that $929 billion—20% of the $4.7 trillion total—in commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors are due later this year. The figure is up 28% from 2023 and inflated by amendments and extensions from prior years. Nevertheless, borrowers must now bite the bullet and pay up or default.
Watch: Billionaire Real Estate Investor Expects ‘One Or Two’ Bank Failures A Week, UK Economist Says “Entering A New Dark Age”
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 11:40 AM
Billionaire Barry Sternlicht, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group has issued an ominous warning about America’s regional banks, which he says will fail at a rate of ‘one or two’ per week.
Speaking with CNBC on Tuesday, Sternlicht says he thinks that primary real estate lenders – community and regional banks – are about to get whacked.
“You’re going to see a regional bank fail every day, or not — every week, maybe two a week,” he said, adding that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s ongoing rate hikes will continue to have consequences for the real estate sector.
“He’s got a hard task with a blunt tool, and the consequence is the real estate markets are taking it on the chin because rates rose so fast. We could have handled this, but we couldn’t handle it this fast,” he said. “The 1.9 trillion of real estate loans, that’s a fragile animal right now.”
As Schiff Gold notes, the fed must cut to avoid a banking crisis.
Most at-risk firms are smaller banks representing assets under $10 billion, with a handful of larger regional ones. Some might be able to avoid closing by halting expansion plans or offering fewer services. Others might save themselves by merging with larger banks. But with inflation too high for the Fed to cut now, “higher for longer” interest rate policy is looking increasingly likely, and banks with high exposure to troubled commercial real estate are at particular risk of starting a domino effect of small collapses that lead to bigger ones and bleed into becoming a real estate crisis.
…
In all its hubris, the Fed is stuck between preventing a banking crisis and preventing inflation from getting even more out of control. It needs higher rates to reduce inflation, but crucial sectors of the economy that are heavily dependent on lending can’t survive in a higher-rate environment, even if they don’t appear insolvent at first glance.
There are more than 4,000 regional and community banks throughout the United States, however just one – Republic First Bank – has shuttered since the start of 2024, after the FDIC seized $4 billion in deposits and $6 billion in assets last month.
Meanwhile, UK fund manager, former MEP, and previously Nigel Farage’s economic spokesman Godfrey Bloom has issued a similar warning to Stenlicht, telling former UK parliamentary candidate Jim Ferguson on his podcast that the banks are insolvent.
“We are entering a new dark age,” says Bloom, who recommends that people “take your money out of the banks.”
Exclusive Alert Breaking: “British Banks are all on the brink of collapse” Godfrey Bloom. Banks in America are collapsing at the rate of one a month. “we are entering a new dark age” Godfrey Bloom ,Author, Fund manager, Former MEP and former British Army Major with the 4th Armoured Brigade gives a startling expose of how close to financial meltdown we are. How reliable are our Banks? They are all insolvent.! “Take your money out of the banks” If you want proof just go along and try to take it out! They wont let you. The World Economic Forum led by Klaus Schwab are working to implement digital ID leading on to CBDC’s which will allow them to abolish fiat currency and cash and then they will have full control over businesses and individual citizens. Net Zero, Reducing Carbon-We are the carbon they want to reduce!! Bill Gates is buying up farmland in huge amounts as their globalist chums seek to bankrupt farmers in Holland and across Europe and the world in order to corner the food market. If they control the food they control the populations. 80% of the people in our respective countries don’t understand whats coming and will be blindsided in the coming storm. You don’t want to be one of them! Its time to get prepared for whats happening. You need to know what happens next. Join our international freedom movement http://freedomtraininternational.org to stay informed and connected to like minded people all around the world. Its time to resist Join us.
During a brutal CNN interview aired Wednesday, Joe Biden looked shocked when host Erin Burnett reeled off a list of stats detailing how bad the economy is. Instead of suggesting how he is going to improve the situation, Biden denied any of it was real and claimed every poll showing Americans favouring Trump on the economy is wrong.
“Voters, by a wide margin, trust Trump more on the economy,” Burnett noted, before listing possible reasons for that including the cost of buying a home having doubled, real income accounting for inflation being down, economic growth being way short of expectations and consumer confidence being near a two year low.
“Are you worried that you’re running out of time to turn [the economy] around?” Burnett asked Biden.
“We’ve already turned it around,” Biden bizarrely claimed, before adding that “the polling data has been wrong all along.”
Biden looks shocked as CNN host Erin Burnett reels off a list of stats detailing how bad the economy is. Biden claims he's already "turned it around" and that every poll showing Americans favouring Trump on the economy is wrong. Full report here: https://t.co/smaN0DjOVDpic.twitter.com/K2wTAwdrse
After Biden took office, inflation surged to rates unseen since the early 1980s, peaking at an annual rate of 9.1 percent in June 2022, a full 17 months after he took office.
Yet, he is claiming it was ALREADY at 9 percent.
Since Biden took office, the average prices of goods and services have increased 19 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
By comparison, during Trump’s four years in office, prices increased by 8 percent, or roughly 2 percent per year, which is the normal annual rate of inflation.
If you are like most Americans, the cost of living has been going up much faster than your income has been. Right now, millions of Americans that were once prospering are now deeply struggling. When I was growing up, most of the population could afford to live “the American Dream”, but now that is no longer true. At this point, the basics of a middle class lifestyle are out of reach for most Americans. Poverty and homelessness are steadily rising, and the economy has become the number one issue during this election cycle. Most of us just want things to go back to the way that they once were, but thanks to the very foolish decisions of our leaders that simply is not possible.
According to a brand new report that was just released, it now takes over $100,000 a year for the typical family to live “the American Dream” in all 50 states, and in 29 of those states it actually takes over $150,000 a year…
A household would have to spend more than $150,000 a year to live the dream in 29 of the 50 states, according to an analysis published in April by the personal finance site GOBankingRates.
According to the report, the optimal American lifestyle would cost $137,842 a year in Ohio, $147,535 in Texas, $159,932 in Florida, $194,067 in New York and $245,723 in California.
I had no idea that the cost of living “the American Dream” had gotten that high.
Illinois was ranked 26th on that list, and so it provides a pretty good snapshot of what the average U.S. household is facing right now…
Median home price: $255,278
Annual childcare costs: $24,174
Annual mortgage costs: $21,401
Car costs: $8,709
Grocery costs: $8,143
Healthcare costs: $7,021
Utilities costs: $5,278
Education costs: $2,475
Pet costs: $1,170
Total annual costs: $78,369
Full cost of the American Dream: $156,739
Did your household bring in at least $150,000 last year?
If not, living “the American Dream” would not be possible for you in most states.
Needless to say, the vast majority of U.S. households are not bringing in that kind of income.
Last December, Investopedia issued a report that concluded that it now takes 3.4 million dollars to live “the American Dream” for an entire lifetime…
Another report, released in December by the financial media site Investopedia, estimates what the American Dream costs across an entire lifetime: $3.4 million.
That is a staggering sum, Investopedia observes, considering what the average American earns in a lifetime: about $2.3 million.
Housing costs are the number one reason why “the American Dream” is now out of reach for most of the U.S. population.
The median sale price for an existing home rose more than 40% between early 2020 and mid-2022, topping out at a seasonal peak just over $400,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates have risen to very painful levels.
The average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage was sitting at just over 3 percent at the beginning of 2022.
Mortgage rates climbed again this week, exacerbating the home affordability crisis that is stifling the housing market.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 7.22% this week from 7.17% last week. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.39% a year ago.
The monthly payment on a 30 year fixed mortgage at 7.2 percent for a $400,000 home would be $2,715 a month.
Who can afford that?
Some people can.
But most of the population cannot.
That helps to explain why the percentage of renters that believe that they will someday be able to afford to purchase a home has dropped to an all-time low…
The dream of home ownership has gotten even further away for renters, with higher housing costs and elevated interest rates standing in the way of the American housing dream, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of “residential mobility,” or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank’s annual housing survey for 2024.
That’s down from 15% in 2023 and well off the 20.8% series high back in 2014.
If they work hard and do the right things, most Americans just want to be able to provide a nice life for themselves and their families.
But during the Biden years that has become increasingly difficult to do.
As a result, the amount of confidence that the American people have in Joe Biden has plummeted…
In a Gallup poll published on Monday, only 38% of Americans said they still had confidence in Biden to lead the country and do the right thing for America’s economy. This figure is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since George W. Bush took office in 2001, Gallup reported.
“With Americans less optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy than they have been in recent months and concern about inflation persisting, their confidence in President Joe Biden to recommend or do the right thing for the economy is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since 2001,” Gallup reported.
The current low for Biden continues a substantial fall from when he first took office. As recently as 2022, the same poll found Biden’s confidence ratings were at 57%. It swiftly fell to 40% and has remained below that mark since.
I believe that this is going to be a very tumultuous election season.
And I am convinced that we will see even more chaos after the election than we will before it.
The American people desperately want change.
But instead, things just continue to get even worse month after month.
Decades of very foolish decisions have brought us to this point, and trying to turn this ship around is not going to be easy.
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
“Deep Freeze”: Jack Smith Has Few Options In Trump Case, Say Former Prosecutors
A federal judge’s ruling this week that postponed former President Donald Trump’s classified documents case represents a significant legal win for the former president, legal analysts say.
A former federal prosecutor, Renato Mariotti, wrote that there is virtually “nothing” special counsel Jack Smith can do to speed the process up.
“Realistically there is nothing Jack Smith can do to move the Mar-a-Lago case forward to trial before the election. Judges have extremely broad discretion over their trial calendar, which is what gives Judge Cannon the ability to avoid setting a trial date at this time,” Mr. Mariotti wrote on social media.
Another former federal prosecutor, Brandon Van Grack, wrote that Mr. Smith’s team will have “a bumpy ride” ahead of them because of Judge Cannon’s “numerous other scheduled hearings on pretrial motions” from President Trump and two co-defendants, which he indicates that Judge Cannon believes “have merit.”
Harry P. Litman, a law professor and a former U.S. attorney, echoed those claims, saying that the case is now in a “deep freeze” after the latest order.
Meanwhile, multiple television legal analysts claimed that with her latest order, Judge Cannon is intentionally trying to delay the case. The Epoch Times contacted the court for comment.
“This is news but it’s hardly unexpected. Judge Cannon seems desperate to avoid trying this case. This isn’t justice. defendants aren’t the only ones with speedy trial act rights, we the people have them too,” wrote former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance, who currently works for MSNBC, on Tuesday afternoon.
But Tim Fitton, the head of the Judicial Watch legal group, wrote that complaints about Judge Cannon’s decisions are unwarranted, arguing that such a timeline “is normal and not surprising.”
“But the Left’s election riggers and civil rights abusers believe that Trump has no rights and will attack Judge Cannon for proceeding normally in this case and for not violating Trump’s constitutional rights,” he wrote on X, formerly known Twitter.
In that post, he pointed out that Mr. Smith’s team last week submitted court papers to Judge Cannon essentially saying that his team misled the court because the contents of a box of documents were re-arranged. Prosecutors did not disclose the exact reason why the materials may have been shifted.
“There are some boxes where the order of items within that box is not the same as in the associated scans,” Mr. Smith’s team wrote, adding that the update contrasts with what they told the judge several weeks ago during a hearing.
The boxes in question have “items smaller than standard paper such as index cards, books, and stationary, which shift easily when the boxes are carried, especially because many of the boxes are not full,” they added.
After the disclosure, President Trump wrote his Truth Social platform that he believes Mr. Smith should be arrested before calling for the case to be immediately dropped.
Other Activity
Judge Cannon has denied two bids by President Trump to dismiss the charges. She has signaled that President Trump’s arguments that the documents were personal records may be relevant to how she instructs the jury at a future trial, a decision that could lead to an appeal by prosecutors and more delays.
In the meantime, there has been speculation that the classified documents case will not go to trial before the 2024 election. If it does, it would likely be in the weeks immediately before Nov. 5, an outcome sure to draw accusations of election interference from President Trump’s legal team.
“Any judge would take pause with the idea of trying a presidential candidate a month before the presidential election,” said attorney Kel McClanahan, who specializes in national security issues and has represented members of the intelligence community.
A Trump win in November could mean that neither case ever reaches a jury. As president, President Trump could direct the Department of Justice to drop the federal charges or seek to pardon himself.
The charges in the Florida case include violations of the Espionage Act, which criminalizes the unauthorized possession of national defense information, as well as conspiracy to obstruct justice and making false statements to investigators.
President Trump has pleaded not guilty to 40 charges connected to allegations that he illegally retained classified documents at his home after leaving in January 2021 and obstructed officials’ attempts to retrieve them. Two of his aides, Walt Nauta and Carlos de Oliveira, have also been charged in the case.
He also faces charges in New York, where a trial is currently ongoing in which he is accused of falsifying business records during the 2016 election. Election interference charges were also filed in Fulton County, Georgia, and Washington.
He’s pleaded not guilty to those charges, too, arguing they’re part of an orchestrated plot to imperil his 2024 reelection chances.
Reuters contributed to this report.
end
Go figure!! Problem is that the migrants are not asking more much more
(zerohedge)
Denver Illegals Make Demands, Include ‘Culturally Appropriate’ Food, Lawyers, Unlimited Showers And Warnings Before Evictions
THURSDAY, MAY 09, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Illegal immigrants at a Denver, Colorado encampment that is set to be removed are refusing to leave until the city meets a list of 13 demands, which include access to “fresh, culturally appropriate ingredients” for food, unlimited showers, “the same housing support that has been offered to others,” legal services, and fair warning before kicking them out.
The group, which had been staying at an encampment under busy Central Park Boulevard in northeast Denver, before relocating under a bridge near the Denver Airport, sent their demands to Mayor Mike Johnson (D) on Wednesday, according to the nonprofit Housekeys Action Network Denver, which posted them to Facebook and said the demands were “incredibly reasonable and doable” and would ensure “long-term stability and opportunities for all.”
The nonprofit also criticized the city for “poor conditions and lack of accountability that resulted in many of these same individuals finding themselves on the streets after having gone thru [sic] the system.”
The full list of demands is as follows;
Migrants will cook their own food with fresh, culturally appropriate ingredients provided by the City instead of premade meals – rice, chicken, flour, oil, butter, tomatoes, onions, etc… Also people will not be punished for bringing in & eating outside food.
Shower access will be available without time limits & can be accessed whenever – we are not in the military, we’re civilians.
Medical professional visits will happen regularly & referrals/connections for specialty care will be made as needed.
All will receive the same housing support that has been offered to others. They cannot kick people out in 30 days without something stable established.
There needs to be a clear, just process before exiting someone for any reason – including verbal, written, & final warnings.
All shelter residents will receive connection to employment support, including work permit applications for those who qualify.
Consultations for each person/family with a free immigration lawyer must be arranged to discuss/progress their cases, & then the City will provide on-going legal support in the form of immigration document clinics, & including transportation to relevant court dates.
The City will provide privacy for families/individuals within the shelter.
No more verbal or physical or mental abuse will be permitted from the staff, including no sheriff sleeping inside & monitoring 24/7 – we are not criminals & won’t be treated as such.
Transportation for all children to & from their schools will be provided until they finish in 3 weeks.
No separating families, regardless of if family members have children or not. The camp will stay together.
The City must schedule a meeting with the Mayor & those directly involved in running the Newcomer program ASAP to discuss further improvements & ways to support migrants.
The City must provide all residents with a document signed by a City official in English & Spanish with all of these demands that includes a number to call to report mistreatment of if they aren’t
In response, Johnson’s office offered the migrants the ability to stay in a city shelter for seven days instead of the initial three.
“We’ve been offering time and shelter, basically just trying to get families to leave that camp and come inside,” Denver Human Services spokesperson Jon Ewing told 9News.
As the Epoch Times notes further, the migrant crisis is costing Denver bigly, as the group’s refusal to leave the encampment comes as Denver is battling with a $180 million budget gap as the illegal immigrant crisis continues to weigh heavily on the city.
In February, Mr. Johnston told reporters the city needs to slash roughly $18 million per month from public services throughout 2024 in order to fund the costs of providing services to illegal immigrants arriving in the city.
At the time, the Democrat called the cuts a “plan for shared sacrifice” that would help both “newcomers” illegally crossing the border and taxpayers who expected certain services in the city.
“This is what good people do in hard situations as you try to manage your way to serve all of your values. Our values are: we want to continue to be a city that does not have women and children out on the street in intense and 20-degree weather,” he said.
In its post on Facebook, Housekeys Action Network Denver said it was not up to Mr. Johnston to “accept and support the very migrants he says he appreciates and defends in his speeches.”
“Now is the time to support these individuals with sustainable, stable plans that also provide them with the autonomy and self-determination they want!!!” the organization said.
The Epoch Times reached out to Denver Human Services for further comment but did not receive a response by press time.
END
Trump Announces ‘Major Motion’ Filed In New York Appeals Court Over Gag-Happy Judge
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday confirmed that his lawyers asked a New York state appellate court to issue a ruling on a judge’s gag order that prohibits him from speaking about certain individuals connected to his ongoing trial.
His team filed a motion on Wednesday, which has been sealed and is inaccessible, according to the court docket. The Manhattan district attorney’s office filed a response to the motion, but it was also sealed.
While speaking with reporters outside the courthouse on Thursday morning, President Trump confirmed the move. Anonymously sourced reports published Wednesday said that it was a motion to expedite the ruling.
“I just want to let you know that we’ve just filed a major motion in the appellate division concerning the absolutely unconstitutional gag order, where I’m essentially not allowed to talk to you about anything meaningful that’s going on in the case. And many good things are going on with the case. It shouldn’t have been filed,” he said.
During his comments to reporters, he did not go into specifics about the motion.
The former president is under a gag order that prohibits him from making public statements about potential witnesses, court staff, prosecutors’ staff, or family members. Judge Juan Merchan, who issued the order and later expanded it, ruled that President Trump violated his directive 10 times before threatening to jail the former president if he makes future comments that he believes violate that
Previously, the New York Court of Appeals rejected the former president’s bid to pause the trial while he battles the gag order. They also rejected an attempt to pause the enforcement of the order, which was issued in March after prosecutors requested it.
His lawyers have argued that the gag order violates the former president’s First Amendment right to free speech, noting that he is currently the leading Republican presidential candidate.
But earlier this week, Judge Merchan fined the former president for a 10th time for an April remark that he made to a media outlet about the Manhattan jury pool, which he said was “95 percent” Democratic. The judge then said that a $1,000 fine isn’t enough and that he might have to jail the former president, although he did not go into specifics about how that would look like.
“Your continued willful violations of this court’s orders threaten to interfere with the … administration of justice,” Judge Merchan said before issuing a warning about possible jail time.
The former president, in response, criticized the judge and wrote on Truth Social that he is now not allowed to respond publicly to “lies and false statements” made about him during the New York trial. It came after witness Stormy Daniels made salacious allegations about President Trump during her first trial appearance, which President Trump has denied.
According to emails reviewed by The Epoch Times, the Trump campaign also used the judge’s threat as a means to fundraise for his presidential campaign. “The liberal judge in New York just threatened to THROW ME IN JAIL,” read one of the emails, adding that they want him “in HANDCUFFS.”
During his remarks to reporters on Thursday, the former president also quoted multiple legal analysts’ commentary on the case to say that it should never have been brought against him. Those analysts, which President Trump read aloud from a piece of paper, stated prosecutors revived the case after more than seven years in a politicized attempt to harm his 2024 reelection campaign.
“‘I’ve been doing this for 60 years, and I don’t understand what crime he’s been charged with. Nobody understands this. I just don’t get the crime. There’s no evidence of any crime whatsoever. This is a sham,’” President Trump said, quoting retired Harvard professor Alan Dershowitz.
The trial is expected to last another two weeks. On Thursday, Ms. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, again took the witness stand and was grilled by defense attorneys about whether she was using her allegations against President Trump to make money for herself and bolster her name recognition.
President Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s $130,000 payment to Ms. Daniels for her silence ahead of the 2016 election about the alleged encounter. President Trump has pleaded not guilty and denies Ms. Daniels’ claims.
The case is seen by some as the least consequential of the four criminal prosecutions President Trump faces. But the chances of the other three, going to trial before the election are growing more distant. He has pleaded not guilty in all the cases.
The former president’s cases in Georgia and Washington were paused by the respective judges overseeing them. Meanwhile, in a major legal win, a Florida federal judge suspended his classified documents case indefinitely after prosecutors revealed that the contents of an evidence box were inexplicably rearranged.
Reuters contributed to this report.
KING REPORT
The King Report May 9, 2024 Issue 7239
Independent View of the News
Bank of Japan issues stronger warning over yen’s impact on policy The Bank of Japan may take monetary policy action if yen falls affect prices significantly, governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, offering the strongest hint to date the currency’s relentless declines could trigger another interest rate hike… “We need to be mindful of the risk that the impact of currency volatility on inflationis becoming bigger than in the past,” as firms are already becoming more keen to raise prices and wages, Ueda told parliament on Wednesday… https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-ready-respond-excessive-fx-volatility-says-finance-minister-2024-05-08/
US, Japan Reportedly Agree on FX Intervention
Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on May 8, up from 3.3 percent on May 2… (And Jerome wants to cut rates? Jerome and his ilk are in self-preservation mode. The ‘dual mandate’ talk is subterfuge.) https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Boston Fed President Collins spoke at MIT on Wednesday – Highlights per BloombergReaching 2% inflation goal might take longer than thoughtShould keep interest rates steady until more confident about inflationElevated uncertainty reinforces need for patienceHaven’t seen further disinflationary forces in 2024Slower growth needed to stay on path to 2% inflationPolicy is moderately restrictive, appropriate for risksPossible haven’t seen full impact of restrictive policyHolding rates steady for longer will slow economyMarket likely already priced in Fed balance sheet unwindToo soon to tell how restrictive policy is Collins, like Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari on Tuesday, contradicted Powell on rate policy.
The US 3-year note auction ($58.0B) on Tuesday went well: 4.605% vs 4.608% WI. The 10-year auction ($42.0B) yesterday was worse: 4.483% vs 4.473% WI.
ESMs traded lower when the Nikkei opened but moved modestly into positive territory at 19:00 ET. ESMs then traded sideways until they broke lower near 22:00 ET. ESMs again went into range trading until they rallied for the European opening. After 3 ET, ESMs hit their daily high of 5218.00 (+4.25) at 3:20 ET. ESMs then stair-stepped lower until they broke down at the 7 ET US repo market opening.
ESMs then tumbled to a daily low of 5188.75 at 8:38 ET. It was time for rabidly bullish equity traders to get long. ESMs surged to 5216.25 at 10:21 ET. ESMs then stair-stepped lower until the afternoon rally began near 13:00 ET. ESMs hit 5214.25 at 14:33 ET and rolled over. After falling 9 handles by 15:00 ET, ESMs steadily rallied to 5217.00 at 15:52 ET and then fell to 5210.50 at 16:00 ET.
Oil rallied 0.83; but other commodities declined; gold was -6.60 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied sharply Gasoline declined ESMs rallied sharply during US trading after getting hammered during early European trading
Negative aspects of previous session The US 10-year auction was soft; USMs were -14/32 at the NYSE close Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 declined, a sign of Mag 7 and trading sardine fatigue Due to Powell being in self-preservation mode, stocks are bubbling up again
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will more Fed officials openly contradict Powell’s rate dovishness?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5181.83 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5191.95; 5165.86
@JMichaelWaller: So, when did the @FBI issue a warning about organized militant networks for a designated international terrorist group to plague American campuses, shut down key transport hubs, threaten acts of murder, and overwhelm local law enforcement?
GOP House Majority Leader @SteveScalise: Biden is holding up aid for Israel to appease his radical anti-Semitic base. Let’s be clear: He can’t keep claiming he stands with Israel while he’s doing that at the same time. He wants it both ways. But you can’t play both sides when one side is Hamas.
@BarakRavid: President Biden tells @ErinBurnett that if Israel invades the city of Rafah, the U.S. will stop supplying it with artillery shells, bombs for fighter jets and other offensive weapons. https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1788329397520388451 (Maybe Mossad should leak Biden kompromat!)
Today – Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 declined on Wednesday, a sign of Mag 7 and trading sardine fatigue. There was no serious attempt to push the S&P 500 Index above 5200. If stocks are soft during early US trading, be alert for a robust afternoon rally to test 5200 on the S&P 500.
NQMs are -25.75; ESMs are -3.50; USMs are 7/32; and Gold is -7.10 at 20:17 ET.
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 213k, Continuing Claims 1.782m; SF Pres Daly 14:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5136; 100-day MA: 5000; 150-day MA: 4804; 200-day MA: 4713 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,730; 100-day MA: 38,379; 150-day MA: 37,069, 200-day MA: 36,463 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5187.67) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4619.92 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5263.90 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5073.29 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5166.24 triggers a sell signal
@mrddmia: Trump’s legal team publicly filed its May 4 letter, accusing Jack Smith and Jay Bratt of very serious constitutional and ethical violations. This may explain why Judge Cannon indefinitely delayed the trial date. These DOJ attorneys could face severe consequences. https://t.co/vfnbtlOmTF
@RyanAFournier: It should concern every American that the FBI STAGED photographs at the Mar-A-Lago. They put ‘Top Secret’ covers on documents that were not even top secret. The conspiracy is out there. They framed a former U.S. President for a crime he did not commit. ARREST THEM ALL.
@charliekirk11: Alan Dershowitz breaks down why Stormy Daniel’s disastrous testimony yesterday could have just doomed the NYC prosecutors’ entire case: “There was clear reversible error today committed by the judge and by the prosecution.” “I can’t imagine how the Court of Appeals in New York that reversed the Harvey Weinstein conviction, which was as harder case to reverse, wouldn’t reverse this conviction if it got up there.” https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1788246110089441496
Stormy Testimony Shows: Trump’s Humiliation Is the Point of Bragg’s Prosecution Normal people will find the accounts of this spectacle nauseating… The big concession Bragg made, with the endorsement of his cat’s paw, Judge Juan Merchan, is that prosecutors would not ask Daniels to describe Trump’s genitalia. I kid you not… Just to remind you, the allegation in the indictment is that Trump fraudulently caused his business records to be falsified eleven years after this encounter. The encounter makes no difference to the proof of the charges… It’s a worse day for the legal system in New York. To see it used so unabashedly for partisan political purposes is stunning. It won’t recover so easily. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/stormy-testimony-shows-trumps-humiliation-is-the-point-of-braggs-prosecution/
@LeadingReport: New York State Sen. Kevin Parker, who worked to pass the “Adult Survivors Act,” which allowed E. Jean Carroll to go after Trump with accusations from 30 years ago, now says the law is unconstitutional after a r*pe lawsuit was filed against him.
Georgia appeals court agrees to hear Trump’s appeal in Fani Willis case The appeals process is likely to cause further delays in the Georgia case against the former president. Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee, who is presiding over Willis’ case that Trump and the co-defendants tired to change the result of the 2020 election, ruled earlier this year that Willis did not have to step down, despite having had an romantic and financial relationship with her principal deputy on the case, Nathan Wade, which raised concerns of impropriety and unethical conduct… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/georgia-appeals-court-agrees-hear-trumps-appeal-fani-willis-case
Georgia reprimands Fulton County for scanning ballots twice in 2020 recounthttps://t.co/QEPh4wJfGZ
Fulton County officials admit that over 300,000 ballot images from the 2020 Election are missing.
Biden lost another battle with his Teleprompter on Wednesday while in Racine, Wisconsin. “My theology professor at the Catholic school I went to was a guy named Riley last nameand he had been drafted by the Green Bay Packers…” https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1788278912721572335
What’s even worse is that The Big Guy didn’t realize he goofed by saying ‘last name!’
Biden falsely claims in Wisconsin that teacher was drafted by Green Bay Packershttps://trib.al/35OoHAd
US President Joe Biden (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) (credit: FLASH90)
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