MAY 13/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $31.10 TO $2336.40/SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.04 TO $28.25/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $3.65 TO $1003.65/WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $13,70 TO $966.05//
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 112 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 93 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 12
TOTAL: 115 115 MONTH TO DATE: 1,922
JPMorgan stopped 0/115
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 115 NOTICES FOR 11500 OZ or 0.3571 TONNES
total notices so far: 1922 contracts for 192200 Oz (5.978 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 166 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 330,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5610 for 28.050 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN 31.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPSIT OF 86 TONNES
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.33TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.33 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY REMAIN CONSTANT AT 422.227MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 422.227 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY SMALL SIZED 233 CONTRACTS TO 167,555 AND STALLING TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0,15 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED 1125 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1125 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.15 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 492 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.15
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR SIZED 255 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 65,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 28.475 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1125 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A HUGE 727CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 4595 contracts: OR 22.975 MILLION OZ (510 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 22.975 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 22.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE RATHER SMALL THIS MONTH/PROBABLY MATCHING FEB 2024)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 233 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 255 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 28.130 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 656,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 28.475 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 492 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1125 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1125 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 66 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 330,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
FINAL DATA
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,189 OI CONTRACTS TO 529,367 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1102 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (10,189 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN $34.65 IN PRICE/FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE. THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER (T.A.S) LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 5.7045 TONNES
NEW STANDING 5.7045 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $34.65 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7189 OI CONTRACTS (22.345 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1903 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 529,367
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7184 CONTRACTS WITH10,189 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1903 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7184 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): ANOTHER MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 41,505 CONTRACTS,, THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FROM INCEPTION OF THIS INSIDIOUS SPREADER CONTRACT
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1903 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI 10,189/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8286 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 11,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /MAY 6.062 TONNES.
/ 3) MASSIVE LONG-SHORT LIQUIDATION ALL DUE TO SPREADERS DESPITE THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: MEGA-MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 41,505 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL FRUITLESS RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 38,413 CONTRACTS OR 3,841,300 OZ OR 119.480 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4268 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 119.48 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 119.48DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 119.48 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 259 CONTRACTS OI TO 167,555 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 255 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 255 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 255 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 233 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 255 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 492 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.478 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6,53 PTS OR 0.21% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 131.38PTS OR 0.80%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 49.63 OR 0.13%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2325 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2398/ Oil DOWN TO 78,94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 83.33 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,189 CONTRACTS TO 529,367 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $34.65 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING. WE HAD ANOTHER MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1903 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE1903 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:1903 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8286 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1903 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,189 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $34.65 FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 41,505 CONTRACTS.(4 NIGHTS IN A ROW OF HUGE ISSUANCE AND THE FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUANCE WAS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED WITH RESPECT TO COMEX HISTORY) WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (6.062 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 6.062 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $34.65 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS ALL THE LIQUIDATION CAME FROM SPREADERS (TAS)
WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT,( AND IT WAS ANOTHER DOOZY) WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS AND MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY TRADING.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 22.345 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 115 CONTRACTS OR 11500 OZ ( .3576 TONNES)
NEW STANDING: 5.7045 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $34.65
WE HAVE REMOVED 1102 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8286 CONTRACTS OR 828600 (25.77 TONNES)
156,059.690 OZ jpmorgan jpmorgan enhanced’ manfra loomis
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
00 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
1704.01 brinks 55 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today
115 notice(s) 11500 OZ 0.3576 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
27 contracts 2700 OZ 0.0839 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1922notices 192,200 oz 5.978 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
we have 0 customer deposits:
total deposit nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS nil 0z
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 142 contracts having GAINED 114 contracts.
We had 1 contracts served on FRIDAY, so we gained 115 contracts or 11,500 oz (0.3576 Tonnes).
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 30,9238 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 286,052 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 38 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 204
We had 115 contracts filed for today representing 11500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 115 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1922) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY ( 142 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (115 x 100 oz per contract( equals 194,900 OZ OR 6.062TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1922x 100 oz + (142 OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (115 x 100 oz which equals 194900 oz (6.062 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 6.062 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,462.715.063 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,328,073,702( 227.93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,134,641.381 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,761,749 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 177.28 tonnes
179.36 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 13
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
621,626/420 oz brinks cnt
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
972.33 oz
DELAWARE
No of oz served today (contracts)
66 CONTRACT(S) (330,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
86 contracts (0.425 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5610 Contracts (28.050 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into delaware; 972.33 oz
total customer deposit 972.33 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,598million oz/297.7248 million or 43.62%
adjustment:0
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) out of Brinks 611,597.320 oz
ii out of cnt 10,029.100
total withdrawal 621,626.420 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 65.377MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.869 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 151 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 219 CONTRACT(S).
.
We had 284 notices served on FRIDAY so we GAINED 65 contracts or 325,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 225 CONTRACTS RISING TO 1508
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 120 CONTRACTS UP TO 136,051
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 66 for 330,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON friDAY 83,619 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5610 x 5,000 oz = 28.050MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (151 and the number of notices served upon today 66x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 5610 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (151 number of notices served upon today minus (66x 5000 oz of silver standing for the may contract month equates to 28.475 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 28.4575 million oz.
There are 65.377 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
GLD INVENTORY: 830.47TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 422.227 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/Alasdair Macleod
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS /LIVE FROM THE VAULT
JAN NIEUWENHUIJS (KOOS jANSEN)
Why We Are At The Start Of A Multi-Year Gold Bull Market
Recently the dollar gold price aggressively broke a multiyear resistance level on the back of escalating wars, worrying asset bubbles, and sticky inflation. Long term indicators show gold is undervalued under these circumstances and can easily double in price over the coming years.
The past decades have been characterized by an elevated trust in credit instruments that blew the global financial system to colossal proportions. Now tensions between East and West, debt saturation and inflation are chipping away this trust, the balance between financial instruments with counterparty risk (credit) and without counterparty risk (gold) will go through a process of adjustment in favor of the gold price.
The Theory of Money and Exter’s Inverse Pyramid
“Money is gold, and nothing else.”
J.P. Morgan testimony before Congress 1912 (page 5)
Philosophically speaking all moneys are backed by trust. Because money is a social agreement it can be whatever we think it is—tobacco, salt, paper slips, silver, book entries, and so forth. Money functions as long as it is accepted by market participants.
But not all moneys are equal. Some moneys—for example tobacco and salt—are inconvenient in the modern age. Other moneys are issued by banks and therefor carry counterparty risk. Since the late 19th century gold is “officially” the only form of money that is universally accepted, has no counterparty risk, and therefore underpins the global financial system.
Below is a visualization of Exter’s inverse pyramid, whereby gold sits at the bottom, ultimately “backing” all forms of credit resting on top of it and providing indispensable trust to the financial system.
In moderation, credit is beneficial to a capitalist economy—too much credit (debt) results in lower growth, too little means foregone opportunities. But in general, and especially during a crisis, people have more trust in gold than credit.
Because everything above gold can be created out of thin air, the top of the pyramid can be easily widened. Throughout the business cycle balance sheets are extended—credit is created, the crown of the pyramid is enlarged—causing an economic boom. During a recession balance sheets shrink, the gold price increases, and the shape of the pyramid is remodeled. The overall size of the pyramid grows over time, while the pyramid’s form changes simultaneous with debt cycles.
Ratios between gold and credit assets can tell us where we are in a debt cycle. At the time of writing, we are in a boom as:
Gold as a share of global financial assets is low.
The US broad money supply relative to the gold “backing” it is overstretched.
Gold’s share of central banks’ international reserves is low.
Equity market valuations are high.
All the while trust in credit is waning, suggesting the gold price will rise (policy makers will avert outright defaults inducing a deflationary collapse).
New Multi-Year Gold Bull Market Has Begun
Let us first define what has recently happened to the gold price. From a technical perspective, as you can see in the chart below, the price of gold has broken out from a multi-year consolidation phase. If we may use history as our guide, we are now entering a multi-year bull market.
Next, we will examine the long-term fundamental indicators that display gold is undervalued under the conditions of declining trust in credit.
Unfortunately, it’s impossible to find global data on all financial assets going back 150 years to compare the value of all credit to that of gold. Though I did find estimates by Bridgewater Associates on the ratio between gold and “financial assets” (in this case gold, debt, and equity) from 1924 until 2020. I was able to roughly mimic Bridgewater’s methodology for the last two decades and could thus extend their data series.
As we can see, during periods when trust in credit is poor, in the Second World War and at the end of the 1970s, gold’s value relative to financial assets was in between 7 and 10%. Currently gold is worth 3%, which goes to show there is ample upside for gold this bull run.
Let’s also have a look at the value of the monetary gold supporting the US dollar broad money supply. What currency is more appropriate for assessing this ratio than the world reserve currency?
The value of the US monetary gold ultimately underpinning the dollars in circulation is rising from a near historic low. The two previous lows were in 1971 and 2000, after which multi-year gold bull markets followed. So, most likely a new bull market is upon us.
Making matters worse is that the dollar’s reserve currency status is slowly declining at the moment. My next measurement, therefor, is the relationship between gold and credit in the form of foreign exchange.
On the classical gold standard in the 19th century, it was mainly gold that underpinned confidence in central banks. Most of their reserves consisted of gold that literally backed the monetary base as currency could be redeemed for physical metal at a fixed parity. In the Interbellum it was agreed that foreign exchange (sterling and dollars) could substitute gold on central banks’ balance sheets to allow monetary expansion beyond the growth of the above ground stock of gold. This came to be known as the gold exchange standard. After the Second World War the US pushed the world to save in dollars and gold’s share of global international reserves declined sharply. Especially in the 1980s trust in dollars boomed.
For our final data series, we will look at the size of the US equity market versus the size of the economy (GDP) going back 120 years. Equity can be seen as a form of debt with no maturity. What the data reveals is that over time there have been cycles of easy money (credit) blowing equity bubbles, followed by the debasement of currency, reflected in a higher gold price.
The cycles can be best explained as follows: once a bubble pops, central banks ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy, but they often overshoot and plant the seeds for the next bubble—national currency (fiat) is the air that bubbles are commonly made of. This leads to a vicious cycle of bubbles and ever-easier money in which the value of currency incrementally declines, and the gold price appreciates. Cycles reminiscent of Exter’s pyramid widening (credit expands) and reshaping (gold price goes up). Time and again.
Currently the equity market (relative to GDP) is probably close to its peak, suggesting the gold price will see a significant rise in the coming years.
Conclusion
The West not only froze dollar assets owned by the Russian central bank early 2022 at the start of the war, but Congress just approved a bill to confiscate such assets and give them to Ukraine. What could speed up “de-dollarization” by BRICS members and other countries faster than this? Tensions between East and West will not be resolved quickly, telling us the gold price will continue to march higher and gold’s share of global international reserves will rise to the detriment of the dollar.
It should be noted that the Chinese central bank was a buyer of gold in the 1960s and 1990s before gold made substantial moves to the upside (see chart 1). Timothy Green writes in The World of Gold Today (1973):
In 1965 …., China bought 100 tonnes of gold … in the London market; the following year she came back for another 30 tonnes. Two years later China topped up with another 60 tonnes. The main reason behind these forays into the gold market appears to have been to divest itself of sterling [the second world reserve currency at the time]. Although no official figures of China’s reserve are available, it is likely that she substituted a good part of her holdings of sterling for gold before [the sterling] devaluation in 1967.
Dutch Newspaper NRC Handelsblad reported in 1993 that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was one of the buyers of a massive sale by the central bank of the Netherlands. As other European central banks sold heavily during the 1990s as well, we may assume the PBoC bought some more of that and reaped the benefits when the dollar gold price began its ascent around 2000.
The gold price can be used as an inflation expectations indicator. In the chart below one can see that a turnaround in the price of gold is often followed by surging inflation within two years. To me it would only make sense if this time around it’s no different.
As global debt levels are near record highs and have become unsustainable, the most expedient, least well-understood, and common way of restructuring debt (credit) is inflation, according to former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio. Indeed, global debt stands at $313 trillion dollars (330% of GDP) and there are few other options to lower the debt burden. Inflation and a higher gold price would deleverage the system and restore the pyramid.
“The Thai [$35 bn] Government Pension Fund is reducing investments in assets that may be affected by war, and increasing investments in gold and oil to mitigate risk.” Notice a trend? Via
In 2023 I speculated the gold price could reach $8,000 dollars an ounce in the decade ahead. Based on all the data I came across in writing this article I still think that is a reasonable number that would stabilize the financial system by adding more trust to it.
end
BIL HOLTER
The most interesting week in MANY YEARS!
The precious metals complex had a pretty good run since early March. Gold, silver, and the miners got quite overbought and deserved to relax and digest those gains, which is what we’ve seen the past 2-3 weeks. For many years now, metals bulls have repeatedly asked “when”? It looks to me like “when” is NOW! I believe this coming week may be the most interesting week we have seen in many many years. I have pasted 3 charts, gold, silver and the HUI mining index. Before you tell me that because the metals complex is so rigged that charts are meaningless, please be patient. Something has definitely changed. That change is what we believed all along, that the physical markets would overwhelm the paper markets. This is, and has, been happening with China a huge buyer of physical gold and India the same with silver. There are now premiums on the SGE over and above COMEX and LBMA which has led to arbitrage moving physical metal from West to East and definitely tightening available supply for the paper traders to use to satisfy deliveries.
This first chart is gold which moved to all time highs. You will see a roughly 33% move up since last October, and close to a 20% move since late February. The move since February saw some serious overbought readings which you would expect to see with a move of this magnitude. If you look at the bottom of the chart, you will see the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence). This indicator can be quite useful leading up to a breakout or a breakdown. In this case, it looks to me like another push higher to further new highs is imminent. You will see a “hook” turning up, it has not crossed over yet but very close indeed!
Here we have silver. Silver has been JP Morgan’s beaten up and battered red headed stepchild. The silver market is maybe only 1/10th the size of gold, so obviously it is much easier to “manage” or manipulate. Since late February it’s had a nearly 40% move. Just as gold, it is no longer overbought but a little further advanced on the MACD “hook”. In fact, it closed Friday minutely crossing over to positive. The setup tells me that the coming week (maybe two) will be extremely telling of the future direction and do so in a huge way. “They” (the cabal) must either slam the metals complex here and now to abort the chart patterns, or suffer the consequence of a full on (and more importantly GLOBAL) “bank run” out of dollars/US Treasuries and into gold/silver/miners. $30+ silver looks like it could be only a day or a few days away. This will green light a very quick move to the $50 level where another battle will be fought …unless of course if a failure to deliver occurs, then all bets are off and the sky (floor for fiats) is the limit. I have been on the record for years that the entire fiat experiment would end in a failure to deliver physical metal. We may see this in very short order!
Lastly we have the beaten up HUI index. Same as silver, no longer overbought and the MACD infinitesimally crossed over higher on Friday. A picture perfect set up if you ask me, not severely overbought and within spitting distance of a breakout!
In conclusion, it looks like this week could be super exciting for those who have held “real money” for so many arduous years. Please remember, gold and silver do not “go up or down”, they are merely a mirror image of fiat. The real way to say the above is, this may be the week where the collapse of fiat is seen in its full nakedness! Though there are some who buy gold and silver because they believe they will “go up”, the REALLY BIG money buys metal to get out of fiat and the system as a whole. A bank run away from the system if you will? Whether or not they can find and kill Bin Laden for a 9th time remains to be seen, but they had better pull some sort of rabbit out of the hat immediately. Otherwise, we will see gold, silver, and the miners breaking out to new ground and the train fully pulled out of the station within a week or two.
There is no bull market like a gold bull market the saying goes. This is because “fear is a far greater emotion than greed”. A stampede into the metals will ultimately create a failure to deliver. When you tell a human that something is not available at any price, they only want it that much more! You are watching the canary in the coal mine, how much life is left in the empire? Stay tuned!
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6,53 PTS OR 0.21% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 131.38PTS OR 0.80%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 49.63 OR 0.13%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2325 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2398/ Oil DOWN TO 78,94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 83.33 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSMONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2326
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2398
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.53 PTS OR 0.21 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 131.31 PTS OR 0.80%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 49.65 PTS OR 0.12 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.13 EURO FALLS TO 1.0789 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.941 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.22 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.512/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.819 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.297%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.321
3j Gold at $2355.00//Silver at: 28.20 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 90 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.35
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.22/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.941% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9080 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9798 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.473 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.613 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.851 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.20…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2090 UP 6 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Gain With All Time Highs In Sight As Key CPI Report Looms
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024 – 08:03 AM
US equity futures extended last week’s solid gains when they traded just about 1% below all time highs, as investors awaited key CPI later this week that will shape the Fed’s actions in coming months. As of 7:30am, contracts on the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% (but still below Friday’s highs), after the index posted a third straight week of gains; meanwhile contracts on the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.3% even though Alphabet dropped 2% in premarket trading after Bloomberg reported that Apple is closing in on an agreement to use OpenAI’s technology on the iPhone. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar was steady. In addition to the week’s inflation data(both PPI and CPI) a handful of Fed speeches will also be in focus this week, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson, who speak later in the day.
In premarket trading, Alphabet shares fall 2% as Apple is said to be closing in on an agreement to use OpenAI’s technology on the iPhone. Amusingly, GameStop shares soared and on track for the best month since March 2021 after the first (rather cryptic) tweet by Roaring Kitty after 3 years of silence on the platform, has sparked yet another massive short squeeze in the otherwise worthless company, and is allowing Keith Gil to dump stock at a huge gain.
Here are some other notable premarket movers:
AC Immune shares jump 53% after Takeda signs a worldwide option and license agreement for the biotech’s active immunotherapies targeting amyloid beta, including ACI-24.060 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.
Cisco Systems shares tick 0.5% higher after losing its only negative analyst rating as BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform, with limited downside now seen to consensus estimates for the networking equipment maker.
Incyte climbs 5.5% after announcing that its board approved a share repurchase authorization of $2 billion.
Intel rises 1.2% after the Wall Street Journal reports that the chipmaker is in advanced talks for a deal in which Apollo Global Management would provide more than $11 billion to help the company build a plant in Ireland, citing people familiar with the matter.
Penn Entertainment (PENN) drops 2.9% after BofA downgrades the casino and gaming company to neutral following what it describes as disappointing results.
Squarespace (SQSP) rises 13% after entering into a definitive agreement to go private with Permira in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $6.9 billion.
Tencent Music Entertainment’s US-listed shares are up 3.5% after the online music platform reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
Ahead of Wednesday’s all-important CPI report, all eyes will be on US producer prices due Tuesday. Data last week pointed to an economy that is slowing amid stubborn inflation, posing a challenge to the outlook for Fed policy.
“We need a catalyst to break the range on rates or change our view on risky assets,” said Mohit Kumar, Jefferies Europe chief economist. “US CPI data this week could be a potential catalyst. Even though US data has started to show some signs of moderating, inflation remains sticky, creating fears of stagflation.”
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was little changed after posting its best weekly return since January (as we previewed just days prior) amid optimism the ECB is poised to ease policy as soon as next month. The autos and health care sectors led gains, while construction and utilities stocks were the biggest laggards. Among individual European movers, AP Moller-Maersk A/S jumped as much as 10% in Copenhagen after analysts at Citigroup Global Markets lifted their earnings estimates on the stock to reflect a recent rise in freight rates. Shell Plc rose to a record in London. Here are the most notable movers:
Maersk shares jump as much as 10% to touch a three-month high, as the shipping stock catches up after Danish markets were closed for holidays on Thursday and Friday last week. Analysts at Citi lifted their earnings estimates on the stock to reflect the recent rise in freight rates.
OX2 shares gain as much as 44% as private equity firm EQT is offering 16.4 billion kronor ($1.5 billion) for the wind park developer.
Gulf Keystone shares jump as much as 15% after the oil and gas producer operating in the Kurdistan region of Iraq demonstrated it can be profitable and generate cash from selling its output locally, according to analysts, with a key export pipeline still closed. This is reflected by the $10m share buyback announced this morning.
Diploma shares rise as much as 11% to touch a record high, the biggest gainer on the FTSE 100 index on Monday. The construction components firm reported solid results and upped its revenue and margin forecasts for the full year, while analysts noted a strong tailwind from M&A.
Nobia gains as much as 9%, the most in a month, after Nordea reinstated its coverage of the Swedish kitchen-interiors firm with a buy rating, expecting a recovery in construction market and consumer confidence to be a boon for the company.
NKT gains as much as 9% after Nordea “firmly” reiterated its buy rating for the Copenhagen-listed power-cable manufacturer, predicting that the continued electrification of society will be a huge boon for the firm in the coming years.
Almirall rises as much as 8.7% as the skin-health focused pharmaceuticals company delivers sales ahead of expectations. The beat was led by the performance of its Ilumetri psoriasis product. Meanwhile, guidance for the full year has been maintained.
Ceconomy rises as much as 6.2% after the German retailer of consumer electronics gave a better-than-expected profit forecast for the year. Baader Bank and Oddo point to Western/Southern Europe segment as a main driver.
Victrex shares drop as much as 5.6% after the polymer maker reported a 92% drop in pretax profit for the first half of the year due to high inventory levels and destocking among medical device customers. The firm has “a lot of work” to do in the second half of the year, according to Jefferies, which expects double-digit downgrades to 2024 consensus estimates.
BAE Systems shares in London fall as much as 2.9% after closing at a record high on Friday. The UK defense company was downgraded to neutral by analysts at BofA Securities, who see limited upside following the stock’s recent re-rating. That comes amid broader pressure on the European defense sector this morning.
The euro-area economy will expand more quickly than previously thought this year as the bloc’s biggest member, Germany, exits more than a year of near-stagnation, a Bloomberg poll of analysts showed. The results capture the improving mood in the region, with first-quarter GDP readings surprising to the upside and inflation is receding toward 2%.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed with Chinese technology companies gaining ahead of earnings and the release of eco data this week. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark climbed to the highest since August, and mainland China equities also rose. But shares in South Korea, Japan and Australia fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.3%, reversing earlier losses of as much as 0.2%, after reports that China is planning to issue ultra-long bonds to support its economy. TSMC, Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings were the biggest contributors to the gauge’s gains. Mainland Chinese shares pared declines after initially falling amid concerns over an escalation of US tariffs and weak local credit data. Benchmarks in Hong Kong gained, with a gauge of technology stocks listed in the financial hub headed for its highest close since November. Taiwan shares also rose, while indexes in Japan fell.
News of the China’s plan to sell ultra-long special bonds boosted sentiment after weak data from the country published over the weekend had led to initial Asian stock losses. The specter of further US-China trade tensions also weighed on equities with a report on how much President Biden is set to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
“You are looking at a slightly muddied growth outlook” for China, Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Regardless of who gets elected in the US presidential election in November, we are going to see an escalation of US-China trade tensions, he said.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower. “After the dovish FOMC meeting and the soft April NFP sucked the momentum from the dollar’s upside, the question is whether price data can actively contribute to the dollar’s downside,” FX strategists at ING write in a note, adding that a softer PPI reading could point to a lower core PCE deflator figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading, due on May 31. This week’s data follows a US labour report earlier in the month which showed a slowdown in jobs growth and raised speculation that the Fed may start cutting the rate in the coming months
Traders are betting on a 73% possibility that the Fed will start cutting rates in September, little changed from late last week; roughly 40 basis points of cuts are priced in through the end of the year
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, following similar gains for bunds and gilts during European morning. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 10-year around 4.48%, about 1.5bp lower than Friday’s close, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. Curve spreads are steeper by less than 1bp. Wednesday’s April CPI report is poised to provide the biggest test yet of the bond rally that started this month, when Jerome Powell swatted away worries that the Fed may raise interest rates; PPI data on Tuesday will also be in focus. Trading ranges narrow ahead of critical PPI and CPI reports Tuesday and Wednesday. A busy corporate new-issue slate is expected, with a weekly total of about $30 billion anticipated. The next scheduled Treasury auction is 20-year bond sale on May 22
In commodities, oil gained on optimism China’s bond plan may boost growth, and traders assessed the willingness of OPEC+ to agree to extend supply curbs at its upcoming policy meeting. Iron ore and copper extended gains
It has been a strong session for Bitcoin, climbing back up over 63k, while Ethereum is looking to reclaim USD 3k.
Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am; retail sales and industrial production are also ahead this week. Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Mester and Jefferson at 9am; Cook, Powell, Kashkari, Bowman, Barr, Harker, Bostic, Waller, Daly and Kugler appear later in the week
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,251.00
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 520.98
MXAP up 0.3% to 178.02
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 556.98
Nikkei down 0.1% to 38,179.46
Topix down 0.2% to 2,724.08
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 19,115.06
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,148.02
Sensex little changed at 72,722.04
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,750.03
Kospi little changed at 2,727.21
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
Euro little changed at $1.0777
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.04/bbl
Gold spot down 0.7% to $2,343.69
US Dollar Index little changed at 105.30
Top Overnight News
China’s CPI rose for a third straight month in April, increasing at a pace of 0.3% compared with a year earlier, according to official data released Saturday, edging up from March’s 0.1% reading and surpassing the 0.2% growth expected by economists. Meanwhile, the PPI fell 2.5% in April from a year earlier for a 19th consecutive month of declines. WSJ
China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak demand. Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, decreased by almost 200 billion yuan ($27.7 billion) in April from the previous month, according to Bloomberg calculations of data released by the PBOC. That’s the first time the measure has declined since comparable data began in 2017, reflecting a contraction in financing activity. BBG
Chinese authorities have kicked off plans to sell Rmb1tn ($140bn) of long-dated bonds, as Beijing raises spending to stimulate the economy. FT
In the past three days, Russian troops, backed by fighter jets, artillery and lethal drones, have poured across Ukraine’s northeastern border and seized at least nine villages and settlements, ¬and more square miles per day than at almost any other point in the war, save the very beginning. In some places, Ukrainian troops are retreating, and Ukrainian commanders are blaming each other for the defeats. NYT
Iraq’s oil minister on Sat said the country won’t agree to any additional voluntary oil production cuts, although he expressed support for the overall OPEC+ alliance in more conciliatory comments on Sunday. RTRS
Stubbornly sticky rent is preventing the Fed from winning the “last mile” portion of its war on inflation and commencing policy easing. WSJ
Biden’s campaign considers Haley voters as a core part of its coalition in Nov, and has been heartened by the fact she continues to perform so well in GOP primaries despite being out of the race for weeks (Trump meanwhile has made little effort to court Haley or her supporters). Politico
McDonald’s is looking to launch a $5 meal plan in the US, a sign the company is becoming more aggressive on price to recapture market/mindshare as consumers dial back spending. BBG
Apple has closed in on an agreement with OpenAI to use the startup’s technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring artificial intelligence features to its devices, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly cautious after mixed inflation and soft financing data from China over the weekend, although Chinese markets found some solace from China’s plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector and amid a tepid NAB Business survey. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with price action choppy amid a slew of earnings releases. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after mixed inflation data and disappointing financing data which showed a rare contraction in Aggregate Financing, while expectations of increased US tariffs on Chinese EVs also provided early headwinds. However, the Hong Kong benchmark then recovered and climbed above the 19,000 level amid tech strength, while the mainland pared the majority of its losses as the attention turned to China’s plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th.
Top Asian News
Chinese authorities kicked off plans to sell USD 140bln of long-dated bonds, according to the FT. It was later reported that China’s Finance Ministry is to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th in which it plans to issue 20yr, 30-year and 50-year treasuries worth CNY 300bln, CNY 600bln and CNY 100bln, respectively, while it plans to complete the issuance of long-term treasury bonds by end-November.
Country Garden (2007 HK) said it repaid onshore coupons within the grace period, according to Reuters.
BoJ offered to buy JPY 375bln in 1-3yr JGBs, JPY 425bln in 5-10yr JGBs and JPY 150bln in 10-25yr JGBs (reduced 5yr-10yr purchases from a previous JPY 475bln).
Australia’s government cut its 2024/2025 real GDP growth forecast to 2% from 2.25% and cut its 2025/2026 growth forecast to 2.25% from 2.50%, while it said inflation could slow to the RBA’s 2%-3% target range by year-end which is sooner than previously expected, according to Reuters.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 0.94bln (exp. .91bln).
European bourses, Stoxx600 (U/C) are mixed and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, in what has been a very quiet European morning. European sectors are mixed; Autos tops the pile, with optimism potentially deriving from Chinese CPI as well as new long-dated bond sales, which will help to provide liquidity for the Chinese markets. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.3%) are very modestly in the green, following the tentative price action also seen in Europe.
Top European News
UK PM Sunak is set to declare the UK stands ‘at a crossroads’ as he readies the Tories ahead of an election, according to FT.
Socialists were ahead in the Catalan regional election with 41 seats out of the 135-seat chamber and separatists Junts were second with 36 seats after 91% of votes were counted, according to Reuters.
S&P affirmed Poland at A-; Outlook Stable.
FX
Dollar is modestly softer, having spent much of the European morning flat, with recent EUR strength pushing the index lower, albeit marginally so. Currently, the DXY is towards the bottom end of today’s 105.36-20 range.
EUR is incrementally firmer vs the USD, catching a slight bid in recent trade though with specifics light. Currently holding around its 50DMA at 1.0786.
GBP is flat vs USD, with very modest early morning weakness petering out. Focus this week will be March’s job data, as well as potential commentary from BoE Chief Economist Pill.
USD/JPY is incrementally firmer, having wobbled very briefly after the BoJ said it reduced its purchases of 5yr-10yr JGBs. The announcement led USD/JPY to as low as 155.57, before quickly paring the move. As it stands, the pair holds above its 20DMA, with the high for today at 155.95.
Mixed trade for the Antipodeans, initially softened by the cautious risk tone in APAC trade and after the PBoC set a weaker reference rate setting. Weakness in the Kiwi, after inflation expectations, has led NZD/USD as low as 0.60.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.2284 (prev. 7.1011).
Fixed Income
USTs are a touch firmer but near unchanged overall as the benchmark takes a slight breather from Friday’s marked bearish action but remain within a couple of ticks of the 108-21+ trough from Friday with last week’s 108-19+ base below.
Bund price action has been very contained and largely directionless. Drivers thus far have been exceptionally limited and the European docket ahead is very light.
Gilts in-fitting with the UK docket thin today with the narrative much the same as for EGBs above. Gilts themselves in a thin 20 tick range after a very contained open. Currently around the 97.75 mark above the 97.66 low.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are on the front-foot, however action is modest and we remain within around a USD 1/bbl of Friday’s base. Focus today has been on commentary from the Iraqi Oil Minister and awaiting updates out of Rafah. Brent July current holding at USD 83/bbl.
Precious metals are slipping a touch but with the action more of a gentle decline than a pronounced fall thus far. Specifics light and impetus from broader assets limited as overall market action is fairly contained; XAU near session lows around USD 2,240.
Base metals largely followed the fortunes of China overnight with initial action bearish on the overall soft tone and weak financing data from the region.
Iraqi Oil Minister said on Saturday that Iraq has made enough voluntary production cuts and will not agree to any future reduction taken by OPEC. However, it was reported on Sunday that the Oil Minister said the voluntary oil output cut is subject to agreement between OPEC countries and any negotiable proposals may be presented at the time, while he added they are part of OPEC and it is necessary to comply with any decisions made by the organisation. The state news agency also reported the Oil Minister said Iraq is committed to voluntary output cuts made by OPEC members and is keen on cooperating with members to achieve more stability in global oil markets.
Iraqi Oil Ministry launched 29 oil and gas projects within the fifth and sixth licensing rounds.
Qatar set June marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.75/bbl and land crude OSP was set at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.85/bbl, according to a pricing document.
QatarEnergy is to acquire two new exploration blocks offshore Egypt in which it signed a farm-in agreement with ExxonMobil (XOM) to acquire a 40% participating interest in the exploration blocks.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia will be able to increase fuel output in the future, according to TASS.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israel’s IDF said it ordered residents of additional east Rafah areas to evacuate and head to the humanitarian zone in Al-Mawasi, according to Reuters.
Israeli military spokesperson said Hamas has been trying to re-establish military capabilities in Gaza’s Jabalia and Israel is trying to prevent that, while it announced that Israeli forces in Gaza’s Zeitun killed 30 Palestinian militants. It was separately reported that Israel’s military opened a new crossing into the Gaza Strip in coordination with the US government for humanitarian aid, according to Reuters.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken stressed to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant the urgent need to protect civilians and aid workers in Gaza and urged to ensure humanitarian access to Gaza, while Blinken reaffirmed to Gallant US opposition to a major ground military operation in Rafah, according to Al Jazeera and Sky News Arabia.
Geopolitics: Other
Ukrainian President Zelensky said battles are ongoing at seven border villages in Kharkiv and the Donetsk situation is particularly tense, while Ukraine’s military chief said fighting is ongoing and warned of a difficult situation in the Kharkiv region, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian shelling killed at least 9 people and injured more than a dozen in an apartment block collapse in Russia’s Belgorod, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin conducted a surprise reshuffle of top security officials whereby he removed Patrushev as head of the Security Council who will be moved to a new job and proposed that Defence Minister Shoigu become the new head of the Security Council, while he proposed economic adviser Belousov to become the new Defence Minister, according to FT.
Russian Defence Ministry said its forces have taken five settlements in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian drone attack has damaged an oil depot/power substation in Belgorod and Lipestk regions of Russia, via Reuters citing Ukrainian intelligence.
US Event Calendar
11:00: April NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation exp; prior 3.00%
Central Bank Speakers
09:00: Fed’s Mester, Jefferson Discuss Central Bank Communications
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After perusing my social media accounts, I think I’m the only person on the planet who couldn’t find the aurora borealis this weekend. All I have to show for my efforts are a few black sky pictures on my iPhone. I had more success in finding a decent song at Eurovision which is saying something.
The main thing that will light up the skies for markets this week will be US inflation data with April’s PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) the highlights. We’ll see if the higher-than-expected US inflation seen in Q1 extends into Q2 or not. Markets will also hear from Powell (tomorrow) and Vice Chair Jefferson (today) as the highlights of a busy Fedspeak calendar that are included in the day-by-day list at the end. The next most important US data release is Retail Sales on Wednesday.
Elsewhere China’s monthly activity numbers (Friday) are important, and staying in Asia, we also have Japanese PPI (tomorrow) and Q1 GDP (Thursday). In Europe tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and UK labour market stats are highlights. Swedish CPI (Wednesday) may get a little extra attention after last week’s Riksbank cut, only the second G10 currency to ease this cycle after Switzerland earlier in the year. Earnings season quietens with only 7 S&P 500 companies and 69 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.
Previewing the main events now and let’s start chronologically with regards to US inflation. For PPI tomorrow, the headline (+0.4% DB forecast, +0.3% consensus, vs. +0.2% previously) and core (+0.3% DB, +0.2% consensus vs. +0.2% last month) are always less important than the key components that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, portfolio management and domestic airfares. As our economists point out, whilst the March health care services print was relatively soft (+0.1%), the six-month annualised growth rate of 3.5% was still higher than at any point in the decade prior to the pandemic. They also highlight that with respect to portfolio management, the strength in asset market performance leading up to March should result in a strong print for April, given the typical lags.
With regards to CPI, our economists previewed it in full here (see “April CPI preview & webinar registration”), and think that given the 3% rise in seasonally adjusted gas prices, headline CPI (+0.37% forecast vs. +0.38% previously) should grow faster than core (+0.29% vs. +0.36%). This would lead to core YoY CPI falling two-tenths to 3.6%, and headline falling a tenth to 3.4%, both in-line with consensus. The three-month annualised rate under this scenario would fall by four-tenths to 4.1%, but the six-month annualised rate would tick up a tenth to 4.0%. As ever all eyes will be on whether rents finally respond more in keeping to the numerous models that have suggested they should already be well below where they currently are.
For Wednesday’s US Retail Sales, DB’s headline (+0.5% vs. +0.7% previously), ex-autos (+0.4% vs. +1.1%) and retail control (+0.3% vs. +1.1%) forecasts suggest some payback from a strong March release. There will be a few extra eyes on initial jobless claims this week given the spike to +231k last week after months of relative stability around the +210k level. Our economists think the spike could have been mostly due to NY school holiday dates having been shifted and would therefore expect much of the spike to reverse. We also have US housing starts and permits on Thursday which include a 2019-2024 seasonal revision which could be of note.
Various regional factory surveys are out which will help fine tune PMI forecasts. Over the weekend Chinese consumer inflation edged higher but producer prices stayed very weak. CPI came in at +0.3% YoY in April from +0.1% YoY in March and a tenth above expectations. PPI however fell -2.5% (-2.3% expected and -2.8% in March). So, deflation still remains intense in manufacturing sectors. Mainland Chinese stocks are lower with the CSI (-0.11%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.09%) both trading slightly lower on prospects of more US trade tariffs on China across various industries with electric vehicles expected to be a particular target according to Bloomberg.
Elsewhere the KOSPI (-0.28%) and Nikkei (-0.20%) are also edging lower in early trade. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.38%) is bucking the regional negative trend. S&P 500 (+0.04%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.07%) futures are trading just above flat with USTs fairly stable as I type.
Coming back to China, the government plans to sell the first batch of its 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) of ultra-long dated bonds on Friday, ramping up its spending to stimulate the economy. The total issuance will include 300 billion yuan 20-year bonds, 600 billion yuan 30-year notes and 100 billion yuan in 50-year tenor and the bonds will be sold from May through November.
Recapping last week now. On Friday we had a weak reading for the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. The headline sentiment index dropped well below expectations, falling from 77.2 to 67.4 (vs 76.2 expected), the lowest level since November. Respondents’ view of current conditions also deteriorated in May, falling from 79.0 to 68.8 (vs 79.0 expected).
Notably, the year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% last month to 3.5% (vs 3.2% expected), erasing all the index’s decline earlier this year. The 5-10yr expectation also rose from 3.0% to 3.1% (vs 3.0% expected).
The University of Michigan release helped pare back some of the week’s upbeat tone. The upside in inflation expectations saw the number of Fed rate cuts expected by December decline by -5.1bps on Friday (-4.9bps over the week), erasing mid week optimism that monetary policy was heading to a less restrictive stance. Over in Europe it was a similar story, with the amount of ECB cuts priced by December coming down -3.2bps on Friday (and -5.0bps over the week) to 69bps.
Off the back of this, US Treasuries sold off. The 2yr yield rose +5.1bps on Friday, and +4.9bps on the week. Similarly, 10yr yields rose +4.3bps on Friday, although this failed to fully wipe out the decline in yields earlier in the week, as yields ended the week down -1.3bps at 4.50%. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds were up +2.2bps (+2.2bps on Friday).
In the equity space, the S&P 500 had traded nearly +0.5% higher early on Friday before the University of Michigan survey but then gave up those gains, finally closing the day +0.16% higher. It finished the week up +1.85% in its third consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak for the index since February. The NASDAQ followed suit, rising +1.14% last week (-0.03% on Friday).
Moreover, global equities were also on the stronger side, as the STOXX 600 gained +3.01% (and +0.77% on Friday). The UK FTSE 100 hit another record high last week, supported by a strong beat to the UK GDP data for Q1 which rose +0.6% quarter-on-quarter (vs +0.4% expected). This saw the FTSE 100 gain +2.68% (and +0.63% on Friday).
Finally, in commodities, oil prices lost ground on Friday, with Brent crude down -1.30% (-0.20% on the week) to $82.79/bbl, its lowest level in nearly two months. By contrast, gold was up +1.32% on Friday (+2.55% over the week) to $2,361/oz, its highest level in three weeks.
2B European Opening Report
Tentative trade across markets with DXY flat & modest gains in US equity futures; NY Fed SCE due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024 – 06:07 AM
European bourses are mixed and trade around the unchanged mark; US futures are modestly firmer
Dollar is slightly softer weighed on by recent EUR strength, NZD lags
Bonds are incrementally firmer, though within contained ranges
Crude benchmarks are on the front foot, XAU is softer and base metals are mixed
Overnight focus on mixed Chinese data and then upcoming ultra-long issuance, latter development providing support
Looking ahead, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations Survey, Comments from Fed’s Mester & Jefferson, SNB’s Jordan
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (U/C) are mixed and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, in what has been a very quiet European morning.
European sectors are mixed; Autos tops the pile, with optimism potentially deriving from Chinese CPI as well as new long-dated bond sales, which will help to provide liquidity for the Chinese markets.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.3%) are very modestly in the green, following the tentative price action also seen in Europe.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
Dollar is modestly softer, having spent much of the European morning flat, with recent EUR strength pushing the index lower, albeit marginally so. Currently, the DXY is towards the bottom end of today’s 105.36-20 range.
EUR is incrementally firmer vs the USD, catching a slight bid in recent trade though with specifics light. Currently holding around its 50DMA at 1.0786.
GBP is flat vs USD, with very modest early morning weakness petering out. Focus this week will be March’s job data, as well as potential commentary from BoE Chief Economist Pill.
USD/JPY is incrementally firmer, having wobbled very briefly after the BoJ said it reduced its purchases of 5yr-10yr JGBs. The announcement led USD/JPY to as low as 155.57, before quickly paring the move. As it stands, the pair holds above its 20DMA, with the high for today at 155.95.
Mixed trade for the Antipodeans, initially softened by the cautious risk tone in APAC trade and after the PBoC set a weaker reference rate setting. Weakness in the Kiwi, after inflation expectations, has led NZD/USD as low as 0.60.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.2284 (prev. 7.1011).
USTs are a touch firmer but near unchanged overall as the benchmark takes a slight breather from Friday’s marked bearish action but remain within a couple of ticks of the 108-21+ trough from Friday with last week’s 108-19+ base below.
Bund price action has been very contained and largely directionless. Drivers thus far have been exceptionally limited and the European docket ahead is very light.
Gilts in-fitting with the UK docket thin today with the narrative much the same as for EGBs above. Gilts themselves in a thin 20 tick range after a very contained open. Currently around the 97.75 mark above the 97.66 low.
Crude benchmarks are on the front-foot, however action is modest and we remain within around a USD 1/bbl of Friday’s base. Focus today has been on commentary from the Iraqi Oil Minister and awaiting updates out of Rafah. Brent July current holding at USD 83/bbl.
Precious metals are slipping a touch but with the action more of a gentle decline than a pronounced fall thus far. Specifics light and impetus from broader assets limited as overall market action is fairly contained; XAU near session lows around USD 2,240.
Base metals largely followed the fortunes of China overnight with initial action bearish on the overall soft tone and weak financing data from the region.
Iraqi Oil Minister said on Saturday that Iraq has made enough voluntary production cuts and will not agree to any future reduction taken by OPEC. However, it was reported on Sunday that the Oil Minister said the voluntary oil output cut is subject to agreement between OPEC countries and any negotiable proposals may be presented at the time, while he added they are part of OPEC and it is necessary to comply with any decisions made by the organisation. The state news agency also reported the Oil Minister said Iraq is committed to voluntary output cuts made by OPEC members and is keen on cooperating with members to achieve more stability in global oil markets.
Iraqi Oil Ministry launched 29 oil and gas projects within the fifth and sixth licensing rounds.
Qatar set June marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.75/bbl and land crude OSP was set at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.85/bbl, according to a pricing document.
QatarEnergy is to acquire two new exploration blocks offshore Egypt in which it signed a farm-in agreement with ExxonMobil (XOM) to acquire a 40% participating interest in the exploration blocks.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia will be able to increase fuel output in the future, according to TASS.
Czech CPI YY (Apr) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.0%); CPI MM (Apr) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%) Sparked immediate strength in the CZK
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Sunak is set to declare the UK stands ‘at a crossroads’ as he readies the Tories ahead of an election, according to FT.
Socialists were ahead in the Catalan regional election with 41 seats out of the 135-seat chamber and separatists Junts were second with 36 seats after 91% of votes were counted, according to Reuters.
S&P affirmed Poland at A-; Outlook Stable.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Apple (AAPL) reportedly closes in on a deal with OpenAI to put ChatGPT on the iPhone, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that an Apple store in New Jersey voted against unionising, while an Apple store in Maryland voted to hold a strike with the date to be determined.
Nvidia (NVDA) says ‘Grace Hopper’ will ignite a new era of supercomputing. Nvidia announced it will accelerate quantum computing efforts at national supercomputing centres around the world with the open-source Nvidia CUDA-Q platform. Sites in Germany, Japan and Poland will use the platform to power the quantum processing units inside Nvidia-accelerated computing systems. Nvidia also announced that nine new supercomputers worldwide are using its Grace Hopper Superchips.
Microsoft (MSFT) reportedly to face EU competition charges regarding Teams software, via FT.
European Commission designates Booking (BNKG) as gatekeeper under digital markets act; now has 6 months to comply with relevant obligations under DMA
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel’s IDF said it ordered residents of additional east Rafah areas to evacuate and head to the humanitarian zone in Al-Mawasi, according to Reuters.
Israeli military spokesperson said Hamas has been trying to re-establish military capabilities in Gaza’s Jabalia and Israel is trying to prevent that, while it announced that Israeli forces in Gaza’s Zeitun killed 30 Palestinian militants. It was separately reported that Israel’s military opened a new crossing into the Gaza Strip in coordination with the US government for humanitarian aid, according to Reuters.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken stressed to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant the urgent need to protect civilians and aid workers in Gaza and urged to ensure humanitarian access to Gaza, while Blinken reaffirmed to Gallant US opposition to a major ground military operation in Rafah, according to Al Jazeera and Sky News Arabia.
OTHER
Ukrainian President Zelensky said battles are ongoing at seven border villages in Kharkiv and the Donetsk situation is particularly tense, while Ukraine’s military chief said fighting is ongoing and warned of a difficult situation in the Kharkiv region, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian shelling killed at least 9 people and injured more than a dozen in an apartment block collapse in Russia’s Belgorod, according to Reuters.
Russian President Putin conducted a surprise reshuffle of top security officials whereby he removed Patrushev as head of the Security Council who will be moved to a new job and proposed that Defence Minister Shoigu become the new head of the Security Council, while he proposed economic adviser Belousov to become the new Defence Minister, according to FT.
Russian Defence Ministry said its forces have taken five settlements in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian drone attack has damaged an oil depot/power substation in Belgorod and Lipestk regions of Russia, via Reuters citing Ukrainian intelligence.
CRYPTO
Strong session for Bitcoin, climbing past USD 63k, whilst Ethereum looks to reclaim USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly cautious after mixed inflation and soft financing data from China over the weekend, although Chinese markets found some solace from China’s plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds.
ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector and amid a tepid NAB Business survey.
Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with price action choppy amid a slew of earnings releases.
Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after mixed inflation data and disappointing financing data which showed a rare contraction in Aggregate Financing, while expectations of increased US tariffs on Chinese EVs also provided early headwinds. However, the Hong Kong benchmark then recovered and climbed above the 19,000 level amid tech strength, while the mainland pared the majority of its losses as the attention turned to China’s plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese authorities kicked off plans to sell USD 140bln of long-dated bonds, according to the FT. It was later reported that China’s Finance Ministry is to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th in which it plans to issue 20yr, 30-year and 50-year treasuries worth CNY 300bln, CNY 600bln and CNY 100bln, respectively, while it plans to complete the issuance of long-term treasury bonds by end-November.
Country Garden (2007 HK) said it repaid onshore coupons within the grace period, according to Reuters.
BoJ offered to buy JPY 375bln in 1-3yr JGBs, JPY 425bln in 5-10yr JGBs and JPY 150bln in 10-25yr JGBs (reduced 5yr-10yr purchases from a previous JPY 475bln).
Australia’s government cut its 2024/2025 real GDP growth forecast to 2% from 2.25% and cut its 2025/2026 growth forecast to 2.25% from 2.50%, while it said inflation could slow to the RBA’s 2%-3% target range by year-end which is sooner than previously expected, according to Reuters.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 0.94bln (exp. .91bln).
DATA RECAP
Chinese CPI MM (Apr) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -1.0%); YY 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
Chinese PPI YY (Apr) -2.5% vs. Exp. -2.3% (Prev. -2.8%)
Chinese New Yuan Loans (CNY)(Apr) 730B vs Exp. 800B (Prev. 3090B)
Chinese Aggregate Financing (CNY)(Apr) -200B vs Exp. 1000B (Prev. 4870B)
Chinese Money Supply M2 YY (Apr) 7.2% vs Exp. 8.3% (Prev. 8.3%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Apr) 1.0 (Prev. 1.0); Conditions (Apr) 7.0 (Prev. 9.0)
Netanyahu Vows To ‘Stand Alone’ & ‘Fight With Fingernails’ After Biden’s Arms Supply Warning
FRIDAY, MAY 10, 2024 – 07:35 PM
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest reaction to President Biden earlier in the week threatening that the US could withhold offensive weapons from Israel if its military escalates a ground offensive against Rafah has been to vow that his country is ready to “stand alone” and “fight with fingernails” in Gaza.
“If we must, we shall fight with our fingernails. But we have much more than our fingernails, and with that strength of spirit, with God’s help, together we shall be victorious,” he said. Netanyahu is vowing to move forward with the ground offensive against the southern Gaza city where some 1.3 Palestinian refugees are located. Washington has long warned that there are not adequate enough civilian evacuation plans in place. The Rafah offensive is now official, per Axios:
Amid growing U.S. concerns about the humanitarian situation in Rafah, the Israeli security cabinet approved last night the “expansion of the area of operation” of the Israel Defense Forces in the southern Gaza city, according to three sources with knowledge of the details.
The prime minister in his latest remarks described that the country largely stood alone in the 1948 war that established Israel when it was “victorious” despite that it was fought by a “few against the many…and did not have weapon.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant echoed something similar: “We will stand strong, we will achieve our goals,” he said. He asserted that “enemies as well as … best of friends” must know that Israel “cannot be subdued”.
Already the US has paused a shipment of 2,000- and 500-pound bombs to Israel, but officials say there is still ample defense aid still in the pipeline. Perhaps Biden’s ‘threats’ are just political posturing in order to keep more Democratic voters from jumping ship over his Gaza policy ahead of November?
A fresh Times of Israel headline issued Friday reads: Despite Biden’s pause, billions of dollars in US arms for Israel still in pipeline…
Billions of dollars worth of US weaponry remains in the pipeline for Israel, despite the delay of one shipment of bombs and a review of others by US President Joe Biden’s administration, which says it’s concerned the Israel Defense Forces could use them in densely populated Rafah, as is has in other parts of Gaza.
So the current paused shipment is likely merely symbolic, or a show of ‘doing something’ without actually doing it in any meaningful way, and in the end Israel’s military will have whatever it needs to continue its offensive on Rafah.
“A wide range of other military equipment is due to go to Israel, including joint direct attack munitions (JDAMS), which convert dumb bombs into precision weapons; and tank rounds, mortars and armored tactical vehicles, Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters,” Times of Israel continues.
“Risch said those munitions were not moving through the approval process as quickly as they should be, noting some had been in the works since December, while assistance for Israel more typically sails through the review process within weeks.”
Again, it’s more likely that this talk of halting defense aid is a ruse to get the political pressure turned down on the Biden White House, amid ongoing pro-Palestinian protests across US college campuses and Progressive outrage.
Senator Bernie Sanders in a recent CNN interview aptly stated that “This may be Biden’s Vietnam” which both could cost him the election and be a black stain on his legacy.
“I understand that a lot of people in this country are less than enthusiastic about Biden for a number of reasons and I get that. And I strongly disagree with him, especially on what’s going on in Gaza,” he commented on the president’s waning popularity even among Dems.
Meanwhile Israel’s Security Cabinet has just approved a strategy of the IDF’s “measured expansion” of the Rafah operation. This seems to simply mean that Israel will push the offensive up to the extent where Washington can still comfortably stomach it on a public and international level.
ISRAEL/GAZA/
Long-Awaited State Dept Review ‘Absolves’ Israel Of War Crimes
A US State Department report on Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip will be submitted to Congress on Friday and stop short of concluding Tel Aviv has “violated terms for the use of US weapons,” according to US officials who spoke with Axios.
The report, based on a months-long probe that assessed whether or not Israel has violated international law or stifled Gaza aid efforts, has triggered “contentious internal debate in the State Department.”
President Joe Biden agreed in February to issue a national security memorandum to examine the use of US weaponry by Israel in Gaza. The report set out to examine the use of weapons by Israel and six other states, according to Axios.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has been pressured by the US ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, and the outgoing US humanitarian envoy to Gaza, David Satterfield, to conclude that Israel is not hindering aid efforts, despite recommendations to do so by USAID and the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor.
The two told Blinken in a memo that while Israel restricted aid in the past, it has since changed its policy after pressure from Biden. “Blinken’s report is going to list a series of incidents that took place during the war in Gaza and note that they raised serious concerns about violations of international law by Israel,” three US officials told Axios.
They added that the report will be “very critical” and state that the State Department is still investigating specific incidents; however, “at the same time, Blinken will stop short of concluding that Israel has violated international law in the context of the national security memorandum.”
“Blinken’s report also adopted the conclusions of Lew and Satterfield and certifies that Israel isn’t currently violating the national security memorandum when it comes to facilitating the delivery of US-supported humanitarian aid,” another official confirmed.
Some Republican lawmakers have criticized the national security memorandum and the upcoming report. Last week, 88 Democratic lawmakers wrote to Biden saying there is “sufficient evidence” of Israeli restriction of aid into Gaza.
Politico reported earlier this week that the release of the State Department report was delayed by several days at the last minute. Friday’s report comes a day after Biden warned that his government would not support or provide weapons for an expanded Israeli assault on Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah.
Back in November, there was a scathing 5-page ‘dissent memo’ circulated in the State Dept:
Israel seized control of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday morning and has been relentlessly bombarding the east of the city, killing dozens of civilians, including children.
A US arms shipment to Israel has already been delayed over concerns about Rafah. Had the report corroborated the overwhelming evidence of Israeli war crimes and hampering humanitarian aid efforts, US military aid for Tel Aviv was at risk of drying up. As a result, supporters of Israel in Washington have pressured the State Department against such a conclusion.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
At Least 360,000 Flee Rafah As Israel Touts ‘Precision Operation’ Against Biden Criticism
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024 – 01:45 PM
An estimated 360,000 Gazans have fled the southern city of Rafah as the Israel Defense Forces concentrate a ground operation on the eastern half of the city, the main UN aid agency UNRWA says. This figure is likely to grow higher by the day as IDF tanks and ground units press forward.
The official Palestinian death toll, issued by the Hamas-run Health Ministry, has surpassed 35,000 – tallied at 35,091 Gazans killed and other 78,827 wounded since Oct.7. The last 24 hours of fighting has seen 57 killed and 82 injured, according to the figures.
Gaza’s health system is “hours away” from collapse, the health ministry has told international aid groups and news outlets, due primarily to fuel shipments being not getting into the Strip amid fighting. Hospitals and clinics rely on generators to operate.
“We are just hours away from the collapse of the health system in the Gaza Strip due to the lack of the necessary fuel to operate generators in hospitals, ambulances, and (for vehicles to) transport staff,” the Gaza health ministry said.
Israel has said that over the weekend it had transferred a large quantity of fuel into the Strip in order to ease the humanitarian crisis.
Ongoing pressure to minimize civilian death from the Biden administration has resulted in the Israeli side claiming it is engaged in a ‘limited’ ground offensive. So far the IDF appears to have cut Rafah in half and is focused on actions in the east. Specific sectors of the cities have been ordered to be evacuated, with tens of thousands of flyers having been dropped from aircraft.
In a Sunday night phone call Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sought to defend the operation, telling US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel is undertaking a ‘precise operation’.
The readout says Gallant conveyed to the US top diplomat “developments in Gaza, including IDF operations across the Strip in the face of terror hotspots, and the precise operation in the Rafah area against remaining Hamas battalions, while securing the crossing.”
“The minister expressed his appreciation to Secretary Blinken for the ongoing support provided by the US administration for Israel’s security,” the readout added.
Blinken reportedly again conveyed the US stance which stands against a major operation in Rafah. The White House has warned it could withhold future offensive weapons from Israel, but so far it seems a mere one shipment has been confirmed as on pause.
Meanwhile major IDF operations have restarted in the north too, with Reuters describing: Israeli forces pushed deep into the ruins of Gaza’s northern edge to recapture an area where they had claimed to have defeated Hamas months ago, while at the opposite end of the enclave tanks and troops pushed across a highway into Rafah. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have again taken flight.
* * *
Israel settlers have continued to attack humanitarian aid shipments entering the Strip from Israel…
END
ISRAEL/USA
Rep. Mills Files Articles Of Impeachment Against Biden For Withholding Israel Aid
Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) formally filed articles of impeachment against President Biden on Friday due to his recent comments about withholding deliveries of heavy bombs to Israel if it launches a major attack on “population centers” in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city.
Mills compared his move with the 2019 impeachment of then-President Donald Trump for briefly delaying weapons shipments to Ukraine and claimed Biden abused his power by trying to leverage military aid to get Israel to change its military tactics.
“In violation of his oath to faithfully execute the office of President and to uphold the Constitution, President Biden abused the powers of his office by soliciting a ‘quid pro quo’ with Israel while leveraging vital military aid for policy changes,” Mills said in a statement, according to Fox News Digital.
“This egregious action not only compromised the credibility of the United States but also undermined the interests of our longstanding ally, Israel,” Mills said.
“Therefore, President Biden’s conduct warrants impeachment, trial, removal from office, and disqualification from holding any future office under the United States,” the statement added.
Over the past seven months, President Biden has staunchly supported the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza by approving hundreds of arms deals and shipping tens of thousands of heavy bombs.
He has also provided political cover by vetoing UN Security Council resolutions for Israel and rejecting the International Court of Justice’s ruling that it’s “plausible” Israel is committing genocide.
While Biden warned he could withhold specific types of weapons from Israel, he still vowed the US would provide long-term military support for Israel. Members of his administration have also promised Israel will get all of the $17 billion in additional military aid that was recently authorized by Congress. But Republicans are still fuming over Biden’s comments.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
Go Nuts About Nuts to Help Keep Cancer at Bay
Regularly eating nuts offers various health benefits, including potentially preventing certain types of cancer.
In their many variations, nuts are a superfood praised as rich sources of minerals, vitamins, amino acids, proteins, and other bioactive compounds.
Chestnuts are champions for vitamin C, for instance. Pistachios contain the most vitamin A and potassium. Both are high in folic acid. Cashews enrich us with magnesium. The level of vitamin B3 (niacin) is the highest in peanuts, and vitamin E (tocopherol) is found in almonds.
Walnuts are especially high in alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), a neuroprotective omega-3 fatty acid important for normal growth and development. It also has been shown to induce apoptosis (programmed death of cells) in breast cancer cells.
Our bodies cannot produce ALA, hence, nutritional intake is a must, as it is with many other key nutrients.
Research Supports the Benefits of Nuts
A 2023 review published in the journal Foods, found mounting evidence that a nut-rich diet can potentially prevent numerous chronic illnesses.
According to the report, “The ingestion of phytochemicals from nuts and their positive influence on several diseases (cancer, heart disease, stroke, hypertension, birth defects, cataracts, diabetes, diverticulosis, and obesity) are established.”
In addition to the improvement of cardiovascular disease, depression, and cognitive function, nut consumption is correlated with lower cancer incidence and cancer mortality, and decreased all-cause mortality, states a 2021 review.
The Nut/Cancer Health Connection
The World Health Organization predicts a considerable increase in cancer, with a potential of 32.6 million cases worldwide by 2045.
Effective strategies, such as increasing dietary fiber, eating more fruits and vegetables, and physical activity, could potentially reduce cancer risk factors by approximately 42 percent.
The journal Chronic Diseases and Translational Medicine published a 2023 review about the interrelation of nut consumption and different types of cancer, including women-related and gastrointestinal cancers.
Data suggests that eating nuts not only reduces “cancer-related risk and mortality,” but possibly prevents the occurrence of certain types of cancer and its advancement. Nuts contain active anticarcinogenic compounds such as “folate, phytosterols, saponins, phytic acid, isoflavones, ellagic acid, α-tocopherol, quercetin, and resveratrol,” according to the review.
The research points to certain phytochemicals and their mechanisms as preventatives for cancer.
Accordingly, walnuts, pecans, almonds, and pine nuts contain polyphenols, which inhibit carcinogenesis that is chemically induced. Likewise, hazelnuts and brazil nuts hold helpful properties, called isoflavonoids, to balance hormonal mechanisms.
Most nuts are strong antioxidants that counteract oxidative stress and guard our DNA—the health benefits list of nuts is long.
Nuts at a Glance
Walnuts
A review published in the journal Nutrition outlines the cancer-preventative properties of walnuts, as researched in animal studies with mice. It summarizes the following points:
A diet enriched with walnuts prevented the increase of “human breast cancers implanted in nude mice by [approximately] 80%.”
Mammary gland tumors were reduced by approximately 60 percent through a diet containing walnuts in a mouse model.
“Walnuts slowed the growth of prostate, colon, and renal cancers by antiproliferative and antiangiogenic mechanisms.”
Another interesting fact was shared in the review. Comparing the intake of whole walnuts to a diet equally rich in n-3 fatty acids, the reduction of tumors in the mammary gland was greater when ingesting whole nuts. This reinforces the idea that active components in walnuts act synergistically to suppress cancer.
Walnuts also proved their antitumorigenic qualities in an animal study in vivo in mice. Compared to the corn-oil-based control group, the walnut group featured two major improvements—the tumor growth rate was slowed by 27 percent, and the tumor weight was reduced by 33 percent.
Reducing inflammation in the body benefits many health conditions, amongst others cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, and cancer. Walnuts have proven valuable in all.
A randomized controlled trial tested a daily intake of 56 grams of walnuts (366 calories) in 46 overweight adults. Another trial analyzed the same amount on diabetic patients. Both results showed that the increased nut intake improved endothelial function significantly, which is key for healthy blood and lymph vessels. In turn, endothelial cells are needed to protect from vascular malfunctions—the hallmarks of several types of malignant disorders.
Almonds
Contrary to common belief, regular almond intake does not lead to weight gain, although the nuts contain almost 50 percent fat. Instead, almonds “appear to promote weight loss,” affirms a research paper published in the Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, which benefits obesity-related illnesses, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer.
However, almonds also contain the highly controversial and much-researched bioactive compound glycoside amygdalin. Highly controversial because its pharmaceutical development as an anti-cancer treatment continues to be a topic of discussion in the pharmaceutical world.
As a commercial drug, amygdalin is distributed under the name Laetrile but has since been shown to have serious side effects, such as damage to nerves and the liver, a lack of oxygen in the blood, and confusion. Furthermore, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has not approved Laetrile and has said that the compound shows only little anticancer effect.
In contrast, a review in the Journal of Cancer Research and Therapeutics praises amygdalin’s few side effects, its low cost, and especially its excellent results in the battle against multidrug resistance. Furthermore, the compound can be easily naturally sourced as it occurs in the kernels of many fruits and is a compound in nuts.
A 2023 comprehensive review published in the International Journal of Molecular Science relates the same hopeful message: “Amygdalin seems to be a promising naturally occurring agent against cancer disease development and progression.”
While Amygdalin has proven its anti-tumor qualities, it is still not recommended as an extensive remedy, as some challenges need to be overcome.
Its correct dosage heavily depends on the type of bacteria present in a person’s gut. Therefore, researchers have not been able to find an across-the-board therapy. “Unfortunately, there is currently no foolproof method for determining the microbial consortium and providing a safe oral dosage for every patient,” researchers state in a 2022 review.
Scientists place their hope in modern nano-technologies as they further explore the qualities of amygdalin in cancer treatment. “There are several pieces of evidence to support the idea that amygdalin can exert anticancer effects against lung, breast, prostate, colorectal, cervical, and gastrointestinal cancers.” The compound “has been reported to induce apoptosis of cancer cells, inhibiting cancer cells’ proliferation and slowing down tumor metastatic spread,” according to the above-mentioned 2023 review.
A 2019 article published in Cancer Medicine that dials in on amygdalin, primarily found in bitter almonds, not only highlights its “antioxidative, antibacterial, anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory activities,” but investigates the clinical value of the anticancer agent.
The compound introduces cytotoxicity and apoptosis in the body and balances the immune function, which affects especially “solid tumors” such as lung or bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma.
Despite limiting factors, such as the “primary stage” of both clinical and experimental research and the lack of high-quality publications on the topic, researchers still believe these studies to be promising regarding cancer treatments.
Many may not be surprised that walnuts and almonds provide us with these health benefits. However, the following nut, which botanically speaking, is a legume, often gets a “bad rap” as a common allergen. Nevertheless, research shows its valuable qualities in cancer therapy.
Peanuts
A human study published in the journal Gynecologic and Obstetric Investigation showed that “High consumption of peanuts, walnuts, and almonds appears to be a protective factor for the development of breast cancer.”
The study group included 97 female patients suffering from breast cancer, and a control group of 104 healthy women. Researchers analyzed their seed consumption via the Mantel-Haenszel test method and found a correlation between dietary nut intake and the development of breast cancer.
Peanuts once again portrayed their qualities as functional food in a study that investigated phytosterols (PS), a natural compound that lowers cholesterol levels and prevents cardiovascular diseases. This research suggests that their sterol beta-sitosterol, in particular, holds protective anticancer effects against “colon, prostate, and breast cancer.”
With 207 milligrams PS per 100 grams, unrefined peanut oil has the highest concentration of valuable beta-sitosterol—even higher than olive oil. Peanut butter “contains 144-157 mg PS/100 g.” Further refinement of the product results in lower rates of the active compound.
Another healthy property of peanuts is the polyphenol phytochemical resveratrol—the target of a review focused on anticancer agents. In addition to peanuts, sources of resveratrol include grapes, red wine, and other berries.
Researchers point out that people benefit from the consumption of this powerful antioxidant, as it displays “strong anti-tumor activities through inhibiting tumor cell proliferation, inducing cell apoptosis, promoting tumor cell differentiation, preventing tumor invasion and metastasis, and further moderating the host immune system to kill tumor cells.”
In fact, the nickname “French Paradox” was given to resveratrol’s impact on the health of the French people, as it seems that the compound counteracts the French diet, which is often high in fats, and protects consumers from cardiovascular disease and more.
Pistachios
Another inconspicuous nut with plenty of healthy properties comes from the cashew family.
In comparison to other nuts, the health profile of pistachios is even more advantageous. They are low-fat, a good source of vegetable protein, contain a remarkable amount of minerals (potassium) and vitamins (C and E), and are high in dietary fiber.
Both, in vitro and in vivo models have indicated significant regulatory properties in pistachios on oxidative stress, according to a 2022 review. Consequently, eating pistachios also positively affected the risk of chronic diseases, including cancer.
Another 2022 review highlighted resveratrol in pistachios and its favorable role in breast cancer treatment.
Unfortunately, the high cost of this nut often keeps people from regular intake, which would be beneficial to their health.
Diet, Inflammation, and Cancer
It has long been known that lifestyle and diets greatly impact our health.
A 2010 review describes the multistage process of cancer as “initiation, promotion, and progression,” and explains that oxidative stress plays a role in all three phases of tumorigenesis (the formation of cancer), as does chronic inflammation in the body—conditions fought by nuts.
A diet rich in omega-3 fatty acids is beneficial to cancer survival, according to a review published in the Journal of Nutrition that examined several animal studies. In addition, it can lessen side effects that come with chemotherapy and increase the treatment’s efficacy. The review goes as far as stating that the “consumption of omega-3 fatty acids might slow or stop the growth of metastatic cancer cells,” after appropriate cancer treatment.
Walnuts contain the highest amount of omega-3 fatty acids.
Attention to Quality
As phenolic compounds in nuts are highly unstable, they may be impacted by various processing techniques.
Unfortunately, studies are rare, as certain types of nuts also react differently. Research that does exist indicates that thermal treatment negatively impacts nuts, such as hazelnuts, where most of the polyphenol content is found in the skin.
Roasting also alters the profile of nutrients in nuts, which can lead to increased allergenicity and changed protein levels, for instance in peanuts. This processing technique seems to affect almonds and pistachios less—they stay stable or might even slightly benefit from the process. In contrast, the antioxidant profile of hazelnuts and walnuts suffers.
A 2023 overview published in the journal Foods mentions that peanuts blanched in 100 degree Celsius water for 20 minutes were less allergenic. On the other hand, “boiling almonds for 10 min[utes], or cashews and pistachios for 60 min[utes] did not affect their properties.”
Authors of the overview suggest that consumers best educate themselves about the variation of bioactive compounds in nuts and the impact of food processing methods, as well as finding a quality source.
Recommended Daily Intake
A 2020 narrative review highlights the extremely low consumption of nuts and seeds worldwide.
Although nuts are continuously praised as a superfood, and the per-capita consumption in the United States increased to 5.6 pounds per person in 2022, recommended consumption is rarely met.
As a rule of thumb, a 2021 study comes to the conclusions that eating a “handful of nuts” is a practical way of “achieving recommended nut intakes.” Researchers explained that combining various types of nuts in a medium-size handful averages at about 36.3 g, which “resulted in a high proportion of individuals taking at least 80% of the recommended intake of nuts.”
Feel free to mix and match, bake with nuts and seeds, or add them to your salads, lunch, and dinner. Mostly though, just have fun going “nuts about nuts” and assisting your health at the same time.
Top Doctor: Covid Shots Have ‘Highest Kill Rate in History’Leading OBGYN physician Dr. James Thorp has issued a statement to warn about the alarming statistics that governments, health officials, pharmaceutical companies, doctors, and the corporate media are all trying to keep hidden from the public.READ MORE
Georgia Election Board Admits Hand Recount and Machine Audit Violated State Law in 2020 ElectionThe Georgia State Election Board acknowledged in a recent letter to elections specialist Joseph Rossi that they discovered the hand recount and machine count audit conducted during the 2020 election violated state law. The State Election Board admitted to this in a recent letter to investigator Joseph Rossi. “The matter is in the violation found category,” The Georgia Election Board …READ THE FULL REPORT
Georgia Appeals Court Agrees to Take Up Fani Willis Disqualification CaseThe Georgia Court of Appeals agreed to reconsider an order declining to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from the case against former President Donald Trump and his co-defendants. Despite finding “a significant appearance of impropriety” in her actions, Judge Scott McAfee ruled in March that Willis could remain on the case if special prosecutor Nathan Wade, who she was in …READ THE FULL REPORT
Left-Wing Comedian Kathy Griffin: ‘Porn Star Stormy Daniels Does Not and Will Not Lie, Believe Her’On Tuesday, liberal comedian Kathy Griffin asserted that porn actress Stormy Daniels “does not and will not lie,” and urged the public to “believe her.” “Stormy does not and will not lie. Believe her,” Griffin responded to a post by attorney and Los Angeles Times columnist Harry Litman, who suggested that Daniels might say there was an “element of assault” …READ THE FULL REPORT
Former Biden DOJ Official Prosecuting Trump Received Thousands Of Dollars From DNCThe lead prosecutor for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case against former President Donald Trump received thousands of dollars from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2018, Federal Election Commission (FEC) records show. Matthew Colangelo, who was President Joe Biden’s acting associate attorney general and spent two years in the current president’s Department of Justice (DOJ), joined the Manhattan District Attorney’s office …READ THE FULL REPORT
Speaker Johnson BETRAYS Donald TrumpHouse Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) delivered positive news to special counsel Jack Smith in an interview published on Thursday. Johnson made it clear to Politico that he would not yield to the demands of some of the party’s more conservative members who wanted to defund Smith’s office. Despite pressure from House Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, a staunch Trump supporter, Johnson …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“The Jobs Market Is Weakening, Inflation Has Picked Up And Growth Unexpectedly Slowed”
FRIDAY, MAY 10, 2024 – 06:05 PM
By Rabobank
The Bank of England left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, but the clear signal from the record of votes, and Governor Bailey, is that cuts aren’t far away. This time around the vote split 7-2 in favour of holding (previously 8-1), with arch-dove Dhingra being joined by former hawk Ramsden in plumping for a cut.
The BOE’s Monetary Policy Report lowered inflation forecasts, but the policy Summary warned on uncertainties around the persistence of high services inflation and the spotty ONS labour market data. Governor Bailey commented that a cut in June is “neither ruled out nor a fait accompli”, while our own BOE watcher Stefan Koopman favors an August cut, owing to sticky services inflation and uncertainties around the impact of the recent 9.8% minimum wage decision.
So, the Bank of England is now in a similar place to the ECB, and a similar place to where the Fed was earlier in the year: cuts are coming, we just need to see some more data to be assured on the timing. In spending so much time talking about cutting rates before actually cutting them, central bankers are doing their best Abe Lincoln impersonation: “give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”
A dovish Bank of England follows Sweden’s Rijksbank delivering a 25bps cut earlier in the week (the first in 16 years) and a 25bps cut from the Brazilian central bank yesterday (though four Board members wanted to cut by 50). The RBA doved-it-up on Tuesday by keeping the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% and maintaining their neutral bias – despite a big upside surprise in inflation in Q1 and half-percentage point upward revisions to their inflation forecasts for the remainder of this year. We think the RBA’s ‘hold and hope’ strategy will ultimately get waylaid by economic reality and that they will end up hiking twice more this year, albeit reluctantly.
Banxico might have been the closest thing to a hawkish central bank this week. They opted to pause the cutting cycle that was initiated in March, while revising inflation forecasts substantially higher and warning of persistence in inflationary shocks. USDMXN dropped below 16.80 following the meeting despite small gains in the DXY index. Nevertheless, Rabobank’s Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz are expecting Banxico’s policy rate to continue falling later in the year, ultimately hitting 10% by Christmas.
Over in the United States we saw a continuation of the theme established by a soft non-farm payrolls report last Friday that the US jobs market may be beginning to crack. Initial jobless claims this week printed at 231,000, well up on the expected 212,000 and last week’s upwardly-revised 209,000. This follows a recent run of soft data, including the lacklustre payrolls report, below expectations JOLTS job openings, and ISM reports showing employment contracting for both the manufacturing and services sectors.
While the labor market is starting to look creaky, the prices paid components of those ISM reports pumped higher. This chimes nicely with a strong run of PCE and CPI data, which we might see continued next week when we get the April PPI and CPI reports for the United States. Could another upside surprise be on the cards there? [ZH: a downside surprise is far more likely]
So, the jobs market looks to be weakening, inflation has picked up and growth unexpectedly slowed to just 1.6% annualized in Q1 figures reported the week before last. Nevertheless, Jay Powell isn’t bothered. He recently told reporters that he couldn’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘flation’ in the economy at the moment.
The BOE and the ECB might be channelling one former President in softening us up for rate cuts, but in light of the recent run of data it stretches credulity to suggest that Powell is channelling another: “Father, I cannot tell a lie…”
While the economic picture appears to be softening in North America, in Europe things seemed to turn for the better this week. PMIs indicated a faster rate of expansion for Spain, France and Germany, and Italian industry also remains in expansion (albeit at a slightly reduced rate). German factory orders remained dreadful, but both imports and exports showed unexpected strength. French wage growth accelerated and German industrial production was less bad than feared. All of this follows on from stronger than expected Q1 growth figures for the Eurozone last week.
Europe might be looking better, but it isn’t time to break out the bunting just yet. Growth is still weak, and it would be a brave call to suggest that inflation has been routed – even if it may be in retreat at the moment. There’s also plenty of potential for further shocks. Just this morning we saw news that Joe Biden plans to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs and other strategic sectors as early as next week. Such moves raise the risk of China dumping those products into other markets (like Europe), which might prompt action from the Europeans to protect already fragile German industry.
There’s also the issue of the Israel-Hamas (/Hezbollah/Iran) war bubbling away in the background. Brent crude has stabilised around $83-84/bbl after the recent tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran momentarily petered-out, but tensions remain high and the war is moving into a new phase that introduces new potential catalysts for regional potshots.
Israel this week cut off the crossing from Rafah into Egypt as a precursor to a ground offensive. Hamas tried to accept a ceasefire deal that Israel hadn’t offered. Joe Biden wound-back long running bipartisan support of Israel by threatening to halt shipments of offensive weapons if Israel pushes into Rafah. That latter development was almost certainly electorally-driven, with the campus youth vote, and the large Muslim population in Michigan of crucial importance to Biden’s chances of re-election. Netanyahu remains undeterred, declaring that “if we must, we shall fight with our fingernails.”
So, all in all, it was another week where there were plenty of problems that we can point to, but both stocks and bonds went higher (at least as of time of writing). Perhaps there is some truth to an observation a trader once made to me: “bears sound smart, but bulls make money
END
Even If Powell “Can’t See The Stag And Can’t See The Flation”, Consumers Can
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024 – 11:30 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Bumps and Potholes
UK Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at the end of last week to print at +0.6%, rather than the more modest 0.4% that market economists had been expecting. That means that Britain is officially out of recession. Perhaps even more importantly for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, GDP per capita grew for the first time in two years and the Governor of the Bank of England has been talking about rate cuts. The FT reports that corporate takeover activity for UK companies has hit the highest level since 2018 as international capital managers realise that UK stocks are comparatively cheap. Suddenly, everything is coming up Rishi, but that’s unlikely to save him from an electoral drubbing later in the year.
Of course, faster economic growth can in some ways be a double-edged sword. If the economy is turning over more quickly, it raises questions about inflationary pressures – which might delay those rate cuts that Governor Bailey was hinting at. In the case of the UK this might not be an issue because the stronger GDP result was driven by fixed capital formation – suggesting that businesses are investing to raise the speed limit of the economy – while households seem to have taken Huw Pill’s advice to accept that they are poorer and kept a lid on their own spending.
Over in Canada it might be a different story. Labour market figures for April showed employment growth of 90,000 in the month. That’s a mighty bounce back from the loss of 2,200 jobs in March, and well above the consensus estimate of +20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate duly fell (despite a 1-tick climb in the participation rate) to a still high 6.1%, and hourly wages growth also came in firmer than expected at 4.8% y-o-y (albeit down on March’s 5% figure).
Consequently, the 65% probability of a June rate cut that the OIS futures were suggesting last Thursday has suddenly fallen to a 45% probability. The market is still fully-priced for a cut by July, but only just.
There were further bumps in the road for the global crusade against inflation last Friday when the latest iteration of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report was released. Consumer confidence dropped like a rock, all the way from 77.2 in April to 67.4 in May. Both ‘current conditions’ and ‘future expectations’ looked grim, which perhaps suggests a “plague on both your houses” attitude to the two leading contenders for the Presidency. Crucially, 1-year inflation expectations leapt from 3.2% to 3.5%, and 5-10 year expectations (generally a low volatility number) edged higher from 3% to 3.1%. Even if Jerome Powell “can’t see the stag and can’t see the flation”, it appears that consumers can.
Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow, but the timing presents a few potential landmines for the Fed Chief. Powell’s remarks will come after the release of April PPI figures, but ahead of the CPI report. CPI is likely to be the key point of interest for financial markets this week, but there’s also the not-insignificant issue of big new tariffs on Chinese EVs (amongst other things) expected to be announced tomorrow. The CPI numbers are expected to print at +0.4% m-o-m, as they did in March. Unfortunately, 0.4% m-o-m is incompatible with 2% annual inflation, so Powell might still be a little cagey on there whereabouts of the stag and the ‘flation.
Japan, China and Australia have lately thrown up some potholes in the road back to at-target inflation. Japanese March labour cash earning figures reported last week showed year-on-year growth of less than half the expected number. China PPI slipped further into deflation at -2.5% in April (although CPI nudged up slightly to 0.3%) and aggregate financing actually fell for the first time since 2005.
China’s housing woes are clearly ongoing, and it appears that this has started to worry Xi Jinping, who is reportedly looking at ways to protect state-owned developers that may also help to staunch the balance sheet recession being experienced by Chinese households. The long-awaited stimulus bazooka might be on the way (of sorts), but almost certainly not for private sector developers who might be too close to decadent Western-style capitalists for Xi’s liking.
The fortunes of Chinese real estate developers are of particular interest to Australia, since bulk commodities used in the production of steel and concrete (iron ore, coking coal) sit atop the list of Australia’s major exports.
The Australian Government will deliver a budget tomorrow night – Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third, and likely his second successive surplus. The now traditional pre-budget leaks to the media suggest a more growth-oriented fiscal impulse which would ordinarily be a concern for the RBA – who inexplicably maintained their neutral outlook on interest rates last week, despite big upward revisions in their inflation forecasts and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.
One suspects that the RBA dead-batted the strong Q1 inflation print of a week earlier with the benefit of advance warning from Treasury that budget initiatives would substantially reduce measured CPI. Treasury is reportedly expecting CPI to be back below 3% by the end of the year as new subsidies for electricity bills, rent assistance and childcare shift the burden of payment from households to government. Those increased subsidies will mechanically reduce measured CPI, but they won’t reduce underlying cost pressures, which will instead be paid through the tax system. Happily, the budget will also include income tax cuts.
So, there have been a few bumps to inflation here, and a few unanticipated drops there. Ultimately the US CPI report will be the main game of the week as markets look for continued signs of an upward trend in price pressures.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0790 DOWN .0024
USA/ YEN 156.22 UP 0.537 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2581 UP .0038
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3673 UP .0007 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.63 PTS OR .21%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 151.38 PTS OR 0.80%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.37 %
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 151.38 OR 0.80%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.53 PTS OR 0.21%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.04%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 49.65 PTS OR 0.13%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2335.20
silver:$28.21`
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 105.13 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2328 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2398)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.20 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.941…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.473% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.615 DOWN 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.859 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2335.40
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.20
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.96 PTS OR 0.21
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 30.63 PTS OR 0.16%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 9.86 PTS OR .12 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 46,50 OR 0.42%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 158,56 PTS OR 0.46 PTS
WTI Oil price 78.92 12EST/
Brent Oil: 83.33 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.35 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 90/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5120 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2090 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0783 UP 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2558 UP 0.0039 UP 39 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2050 UP 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .932%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.24 UP 0.592/ YEN DOWN 59 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3667 DOWN 0001 //CDN dollar UP 1 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.22
Brent OIL: 83.43
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.492
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.646%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 4.868
USA dollar index: 105.15 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 25 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.26 DOWN 0 AND 3//100 roubles
GOLD 2,364.30 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.22 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 81.33 PTS OR 0.21 %
NASDAQ UP 37,43 PTS OR 0.21 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.60 UP 1.09PTS OR 9.05%
GLD: $216.20 DOWN 2.49
SLV/ $25.80 UP .03 OR 0.12%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Hedge Funds Hammered As ‘Roaring Kitty’ Returns; Bitcoin & Black Gold Bid
…and prompted squeezes/panic-covering across the ‘most shorted’ names and ‘retail favorites (memes)’ soared…
Source: Bloomberg
As John Flood noted from Goldman’s trading desk: “GS Most Short Rolling basket in focus having a top 5 move over the past 5 Years (3.3std).”
Source: Bloomberg
Volume/activity has been abysmal recently and today was no better with overall activity levels -7% vs the trailing two weeks average.
HF buy skew sticks out @ +16.6% unsurprisingly, that’s 97th %-ile & the highest level in 6wks. Covering most acute in Info Tech with a buy skew @ +20% and short ratio of only 34%. HCare, Consumer, REITs & Comms Svcs all net to buy; Macro Products & Energy (likely PR hedges) net for sale
LOs are 15% better for sale with just Cons Disc and Fins as small to buy. The most concentrated selling is in Macro Products & Info Tech, with modest supply across HCare, Indust, Comms Svcs & Energy
Most notably, the weakest sleeves of the market are surging higher – Most Short Basket up +3 sigmas // YOLO basket up +3 sigmas // China Internet basket up +2 sigmas
GameStop “stonks” surged up to 119% after a cryptic post on X from Keith Gill, aka ‘Roaring Kitty’, his first since June 2021. Some investors interpreted it to mean that Gill is coming back into action (BBG).
S&P is unchanged but NOT all is calm underneath the surface. HF community under pressure on this Manic Monday. We are seeing a considerable amount of covering by the fast money community in both single stocks and macro products during the first 3 hours of trading.
Keep an eye on the following thematics as it feels like this could get worse before it gets better…
‘HF VIP Longs vs Most Short’ was down 7% – the biggest drop since June 2021 (today’s move is a 4SD over last 1 year of trading)
Source: Bloomberg
Mega Cap Tech vs Non Profitable Tech down 4% (today’s move is a 3SD over last year of trading)
Long Momentum down 4% (today’s move is a 4 SD over last year of trading)
In context, today saw half of all indicative hedge fund gains year-to-date have been cut in half…
Source: Bloomberg
The jump in inflation expectations (and household debt stress) from The New York Fed’s survey did provide some selling pressure on the day however – as well as Chevron’s decline (driven by reports that influential proxy giant ISS recommended Hess investors abstain from voting on the proposed $53 billion acquisition).
By the close, the S&P was unchanged, The Dow was the laggard (down around 0.2%), while Small Caps outperformed and Nasdaq held on to some gains (both well off the day’s highs)…
Treasuries were bid today (but traded in a narrow range), ending the day down only 1bp…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day flat, recovering overnight losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ripped back up to $63,000 today, erasing Friday’s plunge losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold gave back more than half of last week’s gains today, back below $2340…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil bounced back off $78 (WTI) – around its 100DMA – recovering most of Friday’s losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, this trend is not Powell’s (or Biden’s) friend…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Growth’ data continues to surprise to the downside, and ‘inflation’ data surprise to the upside. What do we call that Jay? Clue: it rhymes with blag-station.
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Bidenomics At Work: Ford Slashing Battery Orders As Losses Per EV Approach $100,000
FRIDAY, MAY 10, 2024 – 08:35 PM
Ford is cutting battery orders in yet another sign that the EV market, despite a constant tailwind from the U.S. taxpayer, is starting to slow.
The company is cutting the orders to curb electric-vehicle losses as it scales back its EV strategy in a slowing plug-in market, according to insiders who spoke to Bloomberg.
Ford CEO Jim Farley has said the company’s EV unit “is the main drag on the whole company right now” and CAT said its “cooperation with Ford is moving forward as normal”.
The company responded by saying it wouldn’t comment on relationships with suppliers.
Bloomberg notes that with plummeting EV prices and weakening demand, Ford’s losses per electric vehicle exceeded $100,000 in the first quarter, doubling last year’s deficit.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Ford’s projected EV unit losses this year will nearly offset profits from its Ford Blue division, which produces traditional internal combustion engine vehicles like the Bronco SUV and gas-electric hybrids such as the Maverick truck.
BI analysts said of the results: “That raises questions about the prudence of investing heavily in EVs.”
Ford’s order reductions highlight industry challenges as U.S. automakers face weaker-than-expected EV demand and battery makers in South Korea, China, and beyond struggle with unsold inventory.
NEWS: Ford has begun cutting orders from battery suppliers.
This has affected prices for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, leading to multiyear lows and stalling new projects. Ford has reduced EV production costs but had to cut prices to stay competitive with Tesla.
Ford CFO John Lawler said in April: “We’ve seen prices coming down quite dramatically and that’s why we haven’t been able to keep up from a cost reduction standpoint.”
He continued: “But we’re targeting to take out as much cost this year as we can on Model e and all in the spirit of driving toward that contribution margin positive.”
He concluded: “Model e has to stand on its own. It needs to be profitable and it has to provide a return on the capital we’re investing.”
Thus, its no surprise to us (or to our readers, we’re sure) why, exactly Ford is cutting back on its EV investments.
Recall we noted from the Epoch Times just days ago that on April 24, Ford reported it lost $132,000 for each of its 10,000 electric vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2024, according to CNN. The sales were down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2023 and would “drag down earnings for the company overall.”
The losses include “hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.” Ford is the only major carmaker breaking out EV numbers by themselves. But other marques likely suffer similar losses.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
“An Absolute Disaster”: Media Freaks As Trump Dominates Battleground States
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024 – 03:00 PM
A new set of polls reveals that Donald Trump is leading President Biden in five out of six critical battleground states, as young and nonwhite voters grow increasingly dissatisfied with the current president.
The surveys, from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump is smoking Biden in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Biden is barely clinging to Wisconsin. The top grievances among disaffected voters are cost of living, immigration, and the war in Gaza, in what the NY Times characterizes as “widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life.”
Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
…
The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains. –NY Times
In particular, Biden’s impotence has “helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency.”
Young hispanics, for example, gave Biden more than 60% of their vote in 2020. Now, Trump and Biden are virtually tied among that demographic. Trump has also garnered over 20% of black votes according to the poll, the highest level for any Republican candidate wince the Civil Rights Act was enacted in 1964.
Because of this, Trump’s strength among young and nonwhite voters has “upended the electoral map.”
“It is concerning to me when I keep seeing press come out of the White House where they keep saying the economy is good,” according to 32-year-old Jacob Sprague of Reno, Nevada, who voted for Biden in 2020 but won’t be doing so again. “That’s really weird because I’m paying more on taxes and more on groceries and more on housing and more on fuel. So that doesn’t feel good.”
Even more hilarious is that nearly 20% of voters blame Biden more than Trump for the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (what?).
Trump is polling particularly well with voters who believe that political and economic systems need to be torn down – around 15% of registered voters, with whom Trump is leading by 32 points.
Things are so bad some are convinced Biden will be replaced at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.
KING REPORT
The King Report May 13, 2024 Issue 7241
Independent View of the News
University of Michigan May Sentiment 67.4, 76.2 exp., 77.2 prior (Disaster!)Current Conditions 68.8, 79 expected and prior (11.2 drop, biggest since 4/20 Covid panic!)Expectations 66.5; 75 expected, 76 prior1-year Inflation 3.5%, 3.2% and prior (Yo, Jerome; are you paying attention?)5-10-year Inflation 3.1%, 3.0% expected and prior UM 5-10-Year Inflation Mean and Median used to correlate – until Biden happened. @ces921: UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next 5-10 Year: Mean UP 5.3% @federalreserve: Please stop gaslighting us and saying inflation expectations are well anchored. https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1788934233781567936
Yes, Virginia, the hyped UM inflation expectations metrics are MEDIAN readings. There is a MEAN reading for 5-10-year inflation; but it is not publicized because it sports worse readings.
UM 5-10-Year Inflation Mean and Median used to correlate – until Biden happened.
Consumer Sentiment Shock Sends Warning for Stocks – BBG 10:14 ET The University of Michigan survey revealed a distinct turn for the worse, with the sentiment and current conditions indicators coming in below expectations while the one-year inflation expectation climbed to 3.5% from 3.2%… This is the lowest sentiment reading of the year and the steepest decline since 2022, which should weigh on stocks and support bonds…
“I don’t see the stag – or flation.” — Jay Powell on May 1, 2024, despite beaucoup evidence of stagflation.
@elerianm: Per the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll: “Joe Biden’s re-election prospects are being dogged by persistent fears over inflation, with 80 per cent of voters saying high prices are one of their biggest financial challenges.” “Aside from anxiety about inflation, the poll also found 49 per cent of voters are concerned about income levels, up from 45 per cent, and just under a third — 32 per cent — are worried about housing costs, compared to 27 per cent in April.” (What say you, Jerome?)
The huge problem for the Fed is that inflation expectations, despite officials’ braying that “inflation expectations remain well anchored,” are generating negative consumer sentiment and reduced demand. This is far different that an inventory glut slowdown or reduced demand from satiation or debt contraction. The universal Fed fix, cutting rates, doesn’t help; in fact, it exacerbates the problem.
@DonMiami3: It’s great we’re going to be gaslit the entire summer by Wall St & the politicon artists who will tell us keep swiping our little 29% APR cards, look at your stocks, and be happy. How about you get bent. Roughly half the country doesn’t even own stocks.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it’s still too early to consider lowering interest rates.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed should proceed “carefully and deliberately” on policy.
Fed’s Bowman Says She Doesn’t See Rate Cuts Warranted This Year – BBG 12:01 ET Bowman: Want to See ‘Number of Meetings’ Before I’m Ready to Cut – BBG 12:01 ET
Five consecutive Fed officials have contradicted Powell’s espoused dovish rate policy and views.
Brainard Vows Corporate Tax Hike as Trump Cut Expiration Looms – BBG 11:26 ET Biden has proposed raising the federal corporate tax rate to 28%, up from 21% in Trump’s tax law but lower than the previous level of 35%… Individual tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2025…
ESMs traded vacillated between modest and moderate gains from the start of Nikkei trading until they rallied near the European opening. The rally ended two minutes later. After a seven-handle retreat for over an hour, ESMs jumped 15 handles by 5:19 ET. ESMs then commenced a plodding 11-handle decline that ended near 9:00 ET. ESMs then soared on the buying for the NYSE opening pump & dump.
After hitting a daily high of 5264.00 at 9:48 ET, ESMs began a decline that was exacerbated by the UM survey released at 10:00 ET. After hitting a daily low of 5232.75 at 11:44 ET, ESMs rallied to 5244.00 at 12:50 ET. ESMs then retreated when Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was NOT as dovish as expected.
Goolsbee: Long-run, not short-run inflation expectations are what matter – BBG 13:11 ET Goolsbee: Not much evidence that inflation is stalling out at 3% – BBG 13:12 ET Goolsbee: We’ve hit this inflation bump; now we wait – BBG 13:13 ET Goolsbee: Monetary policy is relatively restrictive – BBG 13: 16 ET Goolsbee: Doesn’t make sense to tie our hands ahead of more data – BBG 13:17 ET
ESMs stair-stepped high in the afternoon on conditioned buying for the Friday afternoon rally until ESMs hit 5250.75 at 15:59 ET. They then fell to 5243.00 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session ‘In Jerome we trust’ boosted stocks despite the stagflationary UM survey and hawkish Fed officials
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply; Gold soared The NY Fang+ Index and Nasdaq declined modestly More Fed officials contradicted Powell
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Fed officials are openly contradicting Powell’s rate dovishness. What happens next?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5224.01 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5239.66; 5209.68
@IsraelRadar_com on Fri, May 10, 2024: Israeli tanks encircle eastern Rafah, Givati Brigade forces are now at the gates of the city; dozens of terrorists killed in battles, weapons seized; IDF troops uncover Hamas tunnel system used to launch an October 7 raid into Israel. via @WallaNews & @GLZRadio
KAN News (Fri.): Israel War Cabinet Approves Expanding the Rafan Operation
@EzraACohen: Why was this intelligence previously withheld? Did the Biden Administration intentionally withhold intel that could have led to the rescue of American hostages? The Sr. Director for Intelligence Programs at the NSC is largely responsible for making this policy determination.
@JewishSpaceLazr: Perhaps because the Senior Director for intelligence programs at the NSC is Maher Bitar, former President of Students for Justice in Palestine, former UNWRA employee, who wrote his Oxford thesis on The Nakba and supports BDS.
Biden Makes Common Cause with Hamas The key figures in this administration (Obamaites) believe we are on the wrong side of history and they have made common cause with revolutionary Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah… the Biden administration did not inform Congress of its decision to start holding up supplies to the IDF until press leaks forced it to do so… Republican Senators are understandably outraged by Joe’s decision to leave our Israeli allies hanging in the middle of a fight to the death… CIA Director Burns went behind the back of the Israeli government to negotiate modifications to a recent ceasefire-prisoner swap deal offered by Egypt and Qatar to Hamas. According to Israeli sources, Burns negotiated the changes, Hamas then “accepted” a ceasefire, but the Israelis only saw the final version of the agreement Burns had negotiated after Hamas announced their acceptance. This left the Israelis in the position of appearing to back out of the deal at the last minute, when in fact they had never agreed to the terms Burns inserted… What the Israelis were asked to agree to was not a temporary ceasefire for humanitarian purposes as had been proposed. They were asked to agree to a permanent end to the fighting leaving Hamas in power… CIA Director Burns attempted to pressure the Israelis into accepting that they would continue to live next to a Gaza controlled by the same terrorist organization that just invaded its territory and slaughtered its citizens. The Biden administration pursued a course of action designed to guarantee that brutal Islamic terrorists would remain in power. https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/biden-makes-common-cause-with-hamas?s=02
Joe Biden is trying to save Hamas: in a long line of foreign policy screw-ups, is this his worst? Setting aside the obvious hypocrisy — Joe Biden said in 2019 that cutting off military aid to Israel would be preposterous and “beyond [his] comprehension” — what are we missing here?… Americans were targeted on October 7 by Hamas. Based on available data, at least 32 Americans were killed, while six Americans remain hostage in Gaza (if they are even still alive). Joe Biden ran on his promise to be president for all Americans. So why don’t these Americans count?… https://notthebee.com/article/in-a-long-line-of-foreign-policy-screw-ups-was-this-joe-bidens-worst
@MarinaMedvin: Biden stopped arms shipment to Israel while increasing the armament of the Muslim countries that host the terrorists attacking Israel. Qatar hosts Ham@s and Lebanon hosts Hezboll@h. All the while Hamas is holding on to 134 hostages, including 5 Americans. Only Israel is working on getting them back. Think about that. Biden’s 2024 campaign is to destroy Israel. And he doesn’t GAF about the hostages because they’re Jews.
@DrEliDavid: Hamas shooting and beating Palestinians in Gaza who try to access humanitarian aid. Any condemnations in Europe?… Nobody cares about Palestinians. Those who claim they do, only care about their antisemitism. No Jews, no news.https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1789240769531838838
@sfrantzman: Hamas is trying to stop aid entering Gaza in order to create suffering. This is because Hamas is hosted by western allies and the western allies then use this to try to pressure the US to pressure Israel. It’s all part of a plan. None of this is just spontaneous “terrorism”…this is a well-crafted plan going back to Oct. 7. The hostage talks for instance could have been resolved months ago but Hamas also had its “friends in high places” who made sure Hamas never turned out a list of living hostages and prolonged the talks…because the Hamas handlers/hosts believed if they prolonged the talks long enough then pressure would build on Israel to stop the war and Hamas would get the ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal without turning over any hostages… https://twitter.com/sfrantzman/status/1789617753109721226
@jakejakeny: Not once has Biden called out Hamas for this regular occurrence. Anyone who thinks Biden cares about Palestinian civilians Israel, or anything connected to this war is a fool.
@NEWSMAX: Supporters of Israel gathered outside the Manhattan office of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on Friday, chanting “traitor” and calling on the nation’s highest-ranking Jewish politician to resign for “backstabbing” Israel. MORE: https://bit.ly/4bdzjQW
At a Sat. fundraiser, Biden said if Hamas releases the hostages, there could be a ceasefire within 24 hours.
Hamas “condemns Biden’s position and consider it a retreat from the recent results of the negotiations.”
@CBSEveningNews: A new State Department report found that the Israel Defense Forces may have used U.S.-made weapons in ways that violate international law. At least one Republican lawmaker argues the report is designed to provide political cover to the president, while a Democratic colleague says it ducks the critical question and any actual findings.https://cbsn.ws/4afrsRt
Review of Israel strategy in Gaza: Israel is NOT trying to eliminate Hamas. The IDF is trying to destroy Hamas military/terrorist capabilities (tunnels, weapons, etc.) so there can never be another October 7. https://twitter.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/1789362758024069399
@TM1Politics: According to a new report, Russia took 5 more cities in Ukraine yesterday during their offensive. Taking these villages is a significant move according to DC and will keep Ukrainian fighters out of other battles where Russia is gaining ground. At this point, it’s becoming apparent that the only thing our tax money is doing is prolonging the inevitable. Why are we still funding this proxy war? (To launder and skim almost $200B of US taxpayer money?)
@Osinttechnical: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been fired. Shoigu, a close partner to Putin, led the Russian MOD for over 11 years… Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister, and a longtime economist, replaces him… (To boost military weapons production)
@KoyfinCharts: Seth Klarman’s paper on stock market efficiency. An “elegant hypothesis that bears quite limited resemblance to the real world”.https://t.co/v5o64UvUqD
@KobeissiLetter: This is unusual: The US BLS has announced that coffee prices will no longer be factored into CPI inflation data. In fact, the April 2024 CPI inflation report this week will be the first to NOT include coffee price inflation. Well, the obvious next step is to see what happened to coffee prices over the last few months. Since September 2023, coffee prices are up a MASSIVE 78%. From January 1st of this year through the high in April when this change was announced, coffee prices gained 35%. All as Starbucks, $SBUX, just reported a 6% decline in traffic as higher prices deter consumers. What is happening here? https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1789714235527967007
April CPI is due on Wednesday. It’s a great bet that the BLS will craft an artificially low CPI.
From Friday’s missive: Stocks are extremely overbought; the DJIA has rallied for 7 straight sessions. But it’s Friday and Powell has given license to traders to bubble up stocks. “To the moon, Alice!”
Today – The DJIA has rallied for 8 consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 for 7 straight. Obviously, stocks are egregiously overbought. However, the usual suspects, emboldened by Jerome, will eagerly play for the Monday Rally. The nature of today’s action will yield an excellent clue about stocks.
If stocks close down or close significantly lower than the session’s high, a retrenchment is nigh. Bulls believe the rally window is open until April CPI is released on Thursday.
What should alarm bulls: SPY volume was putrid last week despite the robust rally.
NQMs are -3.75; ESMs are -10.25; USMs are +5/32; and Gold is -6.56 at 20:30 ET.
Fed Speakers: Cleveland Pres Mester and VCEO Jefferson on Fed Communications 9 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5142; 100-day MA: 5010; 150-day MA: 4816; 200-day MA: 4720 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,749; 100-day MA: 38,422; 150-day MA: 37,153, 200-day MA: 36,503 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5222.68) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4619.92 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5263.90 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5106.46 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5199.24 triggers a sell signal
The DNC Is Preparing for the Worst in Chicago — Without the Help of the City’s Mayor Some in Biden’s orbit are aggressively pushing to make the 2024 conclave a hybrid production. That would mean in-person speeches from the president, party luminaries and rising stars to draw television attention alongside a mix of pre-recorded testimonials and videos from other parts of the country… This would mean moving party business, such as rules and platform votes, off the floor and denying would-be demonstrators a chance to seize on contentious debates… a video montage also means one less opportunity for hot mic spontaneity, and therefore disruption, from 50 states and territories worth of delegates. “If there is one peep in that hall, the networks will be all over it,” a convention planner lamented… “The mayor owns the street but the party owns the inside,” Daley told me. “What happens inside the hall is reflective of our party.”… There’s already a joke going around Democratic strategist circles that the main difference between 2024 and 1968 is that the Chicago mayor this year will be on the side of the protesters, not the cops… https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/10/rookie-mayor-chicago-dnc-00157208
Biden ripped over resurfaced anti-Trump tweet critics say ‘endorses his own impeachment’ “President Trump withheld Congressionally appropriated aid to Ukraine unless they granted him a political favor,” Biden tweeted as a candidate in 2019 about the impeachment push against Trump over a phone call with Ukraine that Democrats claimed was a “quid pro quo.” “It’s the definition of quid pro quo. This is no joke—Trump continues to put his own personal, political interests ahead of the national interest. He must be impeached.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-ripped-over-newly-relevant-resurfaced-anti-trump-tweet-critics-say-endorses-his-own-impeachment
@greg_price11: One of Alvin Bragg’s paralegals admitted on the stand today in the Trump trial that his office deleted three pages worth of phone calls between Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Keith Davidson and Michael Cohen. Not only that but they submitted the call records into evidence but didn’t mention to Trump’s team that some of the files were deleted. This trial becomes more insane by the day.
Bill Maher drops Stormy Daniels bombshell as he airs 2018 interview with porn star that undermines her Trump trial testimony – ‘It is not a ‘me-too’ case,’ she told Maher at the time, ‘I wasn’t assaulted, I wasn’t attacked or raped or coerced or blackmailed.’ But she told his New York trial this week that her hands were shaking and she ‘blacked out’ during the encounter, adding: ‘There was an imbalance of power, for sure. He was bigger and blocking the way.’ ‘You really think she blacked out?’ Maher demanded. ‘A porn star is used to having sex with people she does not know. That’s the job. She’s not a good witness.’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13409187/Bill-Maher-Stormy-Daniels-Trump-interview-HBO.html
GOP AG launches new probe into communications from DOJ and Trump prosecutors Missouri AG Andrew Bailey says court cases against Trump ‘appear to have been conducted in coordination’ with the DOJ – “During that campaign, Bragg promised ‘if elected, [he] would go after Trump.’ Once he won election, he pledged ‘to personally focus on the high-profile probe into former President Donald Trump’s business practices,’” Bailey states… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-ag-launches-new-probe-communications-doj-trump-prosecutors
South Carolina Agency: The Feds Force Us to Give Voter Registration to Foreign Nationals The state Medicaid office spokesman says the department is mandated to provide voter registration under the federal Voter Registration Act…https://t.co/LZqBwkcgAS
Morehouse students protest Biden’s upcoming graduation speech: ‘Being used’ to ‘get more Black votes’https://t.co/CcolBmV1Rb
@RNCResearch: Biden says Hispanic immigration to the U.S. is “a little bit like back in the 1840s and the great exodus of Ireland”: “It’s even a bigger influx now in terms of Hispanic voters! Err, Hispanic citizens.”https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1787945925089927584
@WallStreetApes: I honestly don’t even have words to describe this> United States Senator Mitch McConnell is asked “What are your thoughts on running for reelection in 2026?” You have to see this to believe it. These people are everything wrong with America. (Mitch goes blank.) https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1789299962636886216
The George Kennan Who Wasn’t – A startling string of policy failures shows the hollowness of the U.S. foreign policy establishment and its servile wunderkind, Jake Sullivan Sullivan’s path to power… Yale graduate, Rhodes scholar, Supreme Court clerk, aide to the presidents of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution, chief counsel to the senior senator from Minnesota, adviser to the presidential campaigns of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, deputy chief of staff to the secretary of state, director of policy planning, national security advisor to the vice president, and finally, United States national security advisor—all before his 45th birthday… His record includes a rapidly escalating stampede of failures: the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, the failure of deterrence in Ukraine, the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, the economic war with China, America’s disastrous border policy, and now, decisively, U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran—which enjoyed the financial and diplomatic backing of Biden and Sullivan as it enabled the rape, murder, and kidnapping of thousands of Israeli Jews by a fascist death cult. The failure of the administration’s Iran policy, which Sullivan has shaped and promoted for a decade, has in turn forced Israel into a war of regime change in Gaza, sinking hopes for a peace deal with Saudi Arabia while promising to fill Vladimir Putin’s coffers with spiking oil prices. It is arguably the most rapid-fire set of American foreign policy failures on record, and their handmaiden, if not their author, in each and every case, was Sullivan… https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/george-kennan-who-wasnt-jake-sullivan
Jake Sullivan proves that education, pedigree, and experience don’t always produce judgment & wisdom.
@TheBabylonBee: With Biden Stalling, Israel Announces They Will Just Get American Weapons from Talibanhttps://buff.ly/3R422jd
@PeterDClack: The actual crisis for life on earth has nothing to do with climate. It’s the disastrous collapse of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Carbon powered the rise of all cell-based life. But atmospheric CO2 levels have been falling for 400 million years. At 155ppm, all life will end.https://t.co/JwfbnyCcL2
@robinmonotti: THE REAL REASON FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: The warming from the Sun is cyclical, it’s NOT constant. The distance of where you are from the Sun is constantly changing because both the Earth’s orbit around the Sun is irregular and the Sun itself wobbles due to the combined gravitational pull of all the planets together. Look at the Schwabe solar cycle of 11 years, the Jose solar cycle of solar Inertial Motion of 179 years, Eddy Solar Cycle of 1000 years, the Bray-Halstatt Cycles of 2300-2500 years, then look into the three Milankovitch Cycles… https://twitter.com/robinmonotti/status/1789320693751873550
GREG HUNTER
“There’s A Lag In The Real Economy… And It’s Hitting Now” – Ed Dowd Warns Of “Huge Credit Crisis Coming”
Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst. Even though he has a wildly popular book on CV19 vax deaths and injuries called “Cause Unknown,” he is now turning his attention back to the economy.
Dowd warns the economy can fall out of bed at any time. Dowd explains, “What’s coming up next is a credit cycle…”
“We are going to see commercial real estate go into problem mode. There are a lot of loans that need to be rolled over in 2024 and 25. A lot of these properties are down 80%…
There is huge credit risk coming. The prediction of bank failures is accurate. We are going to see, over the next 12 to 24 months, banks go belly-up. Then, they will have to get merged with bigger banks.”
What happens to the Biden economy? Dowd says,
“The economy is going to take a nosedive sometime in the next 12 months. The real economy is not doing well…
The only thing that has been holding up the GDP growth is government spending.
We are spending $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s adding $1 trillion to the deficit.
The only job creation is government jobs, and they don’t actually add to the economy…
Reports are coming out now that the low-income consumer is getting absolutely hammered. McDonald’s talked about it in their most recent earnings call…
So, low-income and the middle-class are getting squeezed while the rich continue to plug along.”
Dowd told me off camera that the economy could get into trouble without warning. Dowd explains,
“You’ve got to look at history. In 2008 and 2009, everyone talks about the crisis, but bank failures started showing up in 2007…
I suspect as we roll through time in the real economy and the money supply issues start to hit the economy, we will see more bank failures and more businesses shut down.
46% of small businesses are having problems paying their rent. There is going to come a time in the next 6 to 12 months this huge shock that we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2000 bubble where massive layoffs start to happen–it’s inevitable.
This is what happens when you crank up interest rates from 0% to 5.5%. There is a lag in the real economy, and it’s hitting right now. It’s only going to intensify as time goes on.
Dowd likes gold as a core asset. He also thinks the dollar has a way to go before it tanks, but it will tank someday.
Dowd also thinks that the CV19 bioweapon shot pushers are trying to change the narrative to admit “some deaths” happened, but the amount is small. Dowd calls BS on that, and he thinks the death and injuries are at least 33 million in the USA alone.
According to Dowd’s research, the CV19 vax was a criminal enterprise that murdered and seriously harmed millions. Dowd thinks the deaths and injuries from the CV19 vax are going to get worse. Dowd thinks Johns Hopkins and the rest of the medical community are trying to change the narrative, so they don’t get blamed for pushing a massive death and disability CV19 vax program.
(Pavel Kalenik/Unsplash)
harveyorganblog.com 
