GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $34.90 TO $2388.90
SILVER PRICE UP $1.01 TO $29.51
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2387.00
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.67
Bitcoin morning price:$62512 up 829 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $65,880 UP 4197 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $26.50 TO $1062.10
Palladium price; UP $28.47 AT $1010.10
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 45 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 15 May 2024 09:30:12 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3247.43 UP 30.82 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,301.52 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1881.62 UP 9.82 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2192.64 UP 14.20 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCGE: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,353.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/14/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 05/16/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
TOTAL: 2 2
MONTH TO DATE: 1,936
MONTH TO DATE: 1,922
JPMorgan stopped 0/2
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 2 NOTICES FOR 200 OZ or 0.00622 TONNES
total notices so far: 1936 contracts for 193600 Oz (6.031 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 11 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 55,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5741 for 28.705 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $34.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.93TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.93 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER $1.01 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
// INVENTORY REMAIN CONSTANT AT 420.308 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 420.308 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY HUMONGOUS SIZED 3001 CONTRACTS TO 171,371 AND CONTINUING TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0,25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED 580 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 580 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.25 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4416 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1415 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 310,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 29.655 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 580 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 530 214 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 7619 contracts: OR 38.095 MILLION OZ (572 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 38.095 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 38.095 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE RATHER SMALL THIS MONTH/PROBABLY MATCHING FEB 2024)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3001 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1415 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 29.345 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 310,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 29.655 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4416 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 580 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (580 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 11 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 55,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 621 OI CONTRACTS TO 522,952 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 447 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (621 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN $17.10 IN PRICE/TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE. THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER (T.A.S) LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 6.043 TONNES
NEW STANDING 6.043 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $17.10 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4501 OI CONTRACTS (14.0 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3880 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 522,952
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4501 CONTRACTS WITH 1068 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3880 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4501 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 4965 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3880 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI 1068/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4948 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 200 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /MAY 6.043 TONNES.
/ 3) MASSIVE LONG-SHORT LIQUIDATION MOSTLY DUE TO SPREADERS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4965 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL FRUITLESS RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,143 CONTRACTS OR 4,614,300 OZ OR 143.52 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4194 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 143.52 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 143.52 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 143..52 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3001 CONTRACTS OI TO 171,371 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1415 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 1415 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1415 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3531 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1415 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4416 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 22.08 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GOOD $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 41.35PTS OR 0.22%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 176,60 OR 0.46%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2341 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2372/ Oil DOWN TO 78,87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82.97 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 621 CONTRACTS TO 522,952 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3880 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 3880 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:3880 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4501 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3880 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 621 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.10 TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 4965 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (6.043 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 6.043 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $17.10 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4501 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS AND MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY TRADING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 14.0 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ ( .00622 TONNES)
NEW STANDING: 6.043 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.10
WE HAVE REMOVED 447 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4501 CONTRACTS OR 450100 (14.00 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 218,648 contracts// poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
MAY 15 MAY GOLD
/ /// THE MAY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 00 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 1704.01 brinks 55 kilobars |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2 notice(s) 200 OZ 0.00622 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 27 contracts 2700 OZ 0.0839 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1916 notices 191600 oz 6.031 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
we have 0 customer deposits:
total deposit nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL 0z
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 29 contracts having lost 8 contracts.
We had 12 contracts served on TUESDAY, so we gained 2 contracts or 200 oz (0.00622 Tonnes).
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 6703 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 251,547 CONTRACTS.
JULY LOST 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 217
We had 2 contracts filed for today representing 200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1936) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY ( 29 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract( equals 194,300 OZ OR 6.031TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1936x 100 oz + (29 OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz which equals 194,300 oz (6.043 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 6.043 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX84XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,566,324.496 48.71 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,459,628.558 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,328,073,702 ( 227.93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,131,554.628.178 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,761,749 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 177.28 tonnes
179.36 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 15
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 11,697.190 oz delaware HSBC . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | NIL |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 11 CONTRACT(S) (55,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 190 contracts (0.950 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5741 Contracts (28.705 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposit NIL oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,598million oz/297.858 million or 43.62%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) out of delaware 4999.15 oz
ii out of HSBC 6678.04 oz
total withdrawal 11,677.190 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 65.149MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.838 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 201 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 58 CONTRACT(S).
.
We had 120 notices served on TUESDAY so we GAINED 62 contracts or 310,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 176 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 1414
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 2761 CONTRACTS UP TO 138,766
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11 for 55,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 77,416 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5741 x 5,000 oz = 28.705 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (201 and the number of notices served upon today 11x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 5741 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (201 number of notices served upon today minus (11x 5000 oz of silver standing for the may contract month equates to 29.655 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 29.655 million oz.
There are 65.149 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
GLD INVENTORY: 831.93TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 420.308 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
Peter Schiff: Biden Lies Again On Inflation
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 04:20 PM
This week on the Peter Schiff Show, Peter covers a week of dismal economic reports. Both jobless claims and consumer sentiment came in worse than expected last week, with both figures missing predictions by a wide margin. Peter also discusses public statements made by both Joe Biden and Donald Trump on the nature and origin of inflation.
The Fed faces a difficult choice. Does it prioritize fighting inflation or keep rates low for consumers?
“If Powell looks at these numbers and decides we need to raise rates because consumers are worried and they’re pessimistic about inflation, that’s going to make the high-interest rate problem worse. Consumers are upset about both high inflation and high interest rates. So how is the Fed going to do something about that? Because if it raises interest rates, it’s going to make that problem worse. And if it doesn’t raise interest rates, or cuts interest rates, it’s going to make the inflation problem worse.”
In a recent interview, President Biden took to blaming private companies for inflation. Peter explains how absurd this explanation is:
“He immediately changed the subject to shrinkflation and then started blaming greedy corporations. And he said, ‘We have a problem of corporate greed. That’s why everything is so expensive now.’ As if corporations weren’t greedy until Joe Biden became president. All of a sudden, Biden’s president and these corporations decide, ‘You know, let’s stick it to the consumer. We can make some extra money if we really jack up the price of food.’ Where were all these greedy corporate officers a few years back?”
Peter rebuts Biden further. If anything, corporations initially took losses in the hopes that inflation was temporary:
“Inflation is driving up the cost of doing business, and so to stay in business, companies have no choice but to raise prices. And they’re all raising prices because they’re all facing rising costs. So it’s not greed. It’s got nothing to do with greed! In fact, and I’ve pointed this out from the beginning, corporations were reluctant to raise prices originally because they were hoping it was transitory. They were being told it was transitory. … That’s why a lot of those consumer type companies were originally taking some earnings hits— because their costs were going up and they weren’t raising prices.”
He also gives his thoughts on a recently viral clip of Jared Bernstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, bumbling through an explanation of government debt. Such a council is completely unnecessary and arguably harmful to the economy:
“If I was ever to be president of the United States, I would fire all of the economic advisors. I wouldn’t even want any. I would just save the taxpayers the money and get rid of them all. We didn’t even have the Presidential Council of Economic Advisors until 1946. … You may want to ask yourself, well, how did America make it for over 150 years? That we had 32 presidents who didn’t have any economic advisors. Yet we did fine! We got to 1946. We went through the Second World War. I would argue that the economy did much better before presidents had any economic advice.”
Biden and Bernstein are clueless when it comes to monetary policy, but Trump isn’t perfect either:
“He’s blaming [inflation] all on Biden. It’s not all Biden. A lot of the inflation that we’re dealing with has its origins in Trump because huge deficit spending happened. All of the COVID stimulus money, the whole idea that people should stop working but spend more—that started with Trump, it just was expanded with Biden. And all of this operates with a lag. So there was a huge inflation tax when Trump was president. You know, he was bragging during this speech about his huge tax cuts that were bigger than Ronald Reagan’s. But the problem with these huge tax cuts is that they didn’t come with huge spending cuts. They came with spending increases. … So Donald Trump imposed an inflation tax.”
There aren’t any major politicians who take inflation and government debt seriously enough:
“You can’t talk about inflation and be critical of inflation unless you’re going to propose real solutions. Now, I guess Donald Trump is a better politician than to want to propose real solutions because that’s going to piss somebody off. No, he’d rather say, ‘Social Security is not going to get touched. Medicare is not going to get touched. And I’m going to cut your taxes.’ Well, that just means we’re going to have a lot more inflation. And that’s what I’ve been saying. Doesn’t matter!”
For more of Peter’s commentary, check out a recent debate he had with Steve Hanke on inflation and de-dollarization.
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/Alasdair Macleod
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
Robert Lambourne: You might be surprised by how many know of the war against gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-05-15 10:44 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne
May 15, 2024
During a recent video presentation, a book titled “The War On Gold” by Antony Sutton, published in 1977, was spotted on a shelf behind a mainstream economist who provides research for leading institutional investors.
This writer acquired this book some 20 years ago and seeing it again triggered an effort to reread it. It is still quite topical, as indicated by the contents listed on its back cover:
A memorable comment of his about gold was: “Governments know the value of gold but try to dissuade private ownership. That tells you something.”
More information on Sutton can be found here:
The book includes a number of points that seem of great relevance today, including coverage of the efforts undertaken 47 years ago to demonetize gold. Perhaps the book’s major message is to highlight just how long the United States has been trying to prevent gold from usurping the role of the dollar.
The book’s section on the London Gold Pool is well worth reading even if the remainder of the book is ignored.
This writer has tended to subscribe to the view that the more extensive efforts to suppress gold prices happened during the Clinton administration following publication of the research paper written by Professors Robert B. Barsky and Lawrence H. Summers on Gibson’s Paradox. The review of the Barsky and Summers paper by Reg Howe is perhaps the best critique of it:
http://goldensextant.com/gibsonsparadox/
“The War On Gold” is a reminder that U.S. efforts to de-emphasize gold have been going on over a much longer time span.
Recent remarks by many commentators on international relations, including financial specialists, are pointing toward a developing Cold War between the U.S. and China. A general recent book on this topic is “The New Cold War: How The Contest Between The U.S. And China Will Shape Our Century” by Robin Niblett, the former head of Chatham House, a study organization in London specializing in international relations.
This book is worth reading to understand how this Cold War might develop, as with the possible fracture of the present system whereby China makes and sells manufactured goods to the West. This is topical when the current U.S. administration seems unwilling to allow China to dominate the sale of electric vehicles in the U.S., given the introduction of tariffs to protect the U.S. EV industry and discourage other Chinese imports.
Niblett is quite critical of some of what China has achieved so far, noting: “Rather than being a sign of strength, however, enlarging the BRICS signals China’s main weakness in the New Cold War. Xi Jinping must convert China into the leader of the Global South because, if it does not lead the south, it leads no one.
But despite the lengthy list of policy topics they addressed in Johannesburg, the members of the enlarged BRICS lack a common vision other than opposition to U.S. economic hegemony and bring instead some deep divisions, above all the strategic rivalry between China and India and, after its enlargement, between Saudi Arabia and Iran.”
If one accepts Niblett’s view that the BRICS are perhaps unlikely to be the source of a co-ordinated effort to unravel U.S. dominance of the financial system, then a recent article published by the Financial Times about a possible seismic deterioration of the system caused by a Chinese debt devaluation offers an alternative reason for China striving to unseat the dollar and reassert gold as a dominant global monetary asset:
The author is Professor Russell Napier, who is an expert on Asian finance and writes research reports for many major institutional investors. He is also the leading economist who had a copy of “The War on Gold” on the shelf behind him in the video interview mentioned above. The video is here:
In his FT essay, Napier writes: “The world’s second largest economy is about to move to full monetary independence and in so doing will destroy the current international financial system.”
Napier considers that China needs to stop its policy of exchange-rate targeting and carry out a significant debt devaluation. Although it is not said in his article, it is clear that Napier is expecting China’s devaluing its debt to force the United States to follow, and, as has already happened since his essay was published in the FT, to introduce tariffs to slash Chinese imports.
If the top two economies are going to be forced to devalue, it seems inevitable that gold will be revalued, possibly significantly.
Napier’s essay is silent about this step, but it seems plausible that anyone who has read or is prepared to read Sutton’s book is well versed on how a gold price reset by China would achieve the devaluation of its debt dominated in yuan and force the U.S. to follow.
Years of acquiring gold has seemingly enabled China to decide when a reset happens, although for domestic policy reasons it seems unlikely to be delayed much longer.
Hence, if Napier is correct in his assessment of the likely actions of China, a gold price reset in dollar terms seems likely before too long. Of possible relevance to the timing is whether Xi prefers to face a Biden or a Trump administration for the next four years. An imminent gold price revaluation forced on the United States seems unlikely to help President Biden in November.
The recent announcement that long-term Chinese government bonds will soon be issued might point to Chinese willingness to wait until after the U.S. presidential election to improve the chances of dealing with Biden rather than Donald Trump.
But the recent announcement of U.S. tariffs against China are hardly helpful to the effort to strengthen Chinese economic activity.
So it is perhaps hard to deduce which is Xi’s preferred “Manchurian candidate.”
——
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the Bank for International Settlements and a few other things.
end
im Rickards: Why gold at $27,000 isn’t such a crazy prospect
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-05-14 10:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
By James G. Rickards
Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
I’ve said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today I’m updating that forecast.
My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.
I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.
Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…
This analysis begins with a simple question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard? …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS /LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT//COPPER
Goldman Warns Copper “Is Having A Cocoa Moment”
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 01:45 PM
In a Goldman Materials note this morning covering China and copper, analyst James McGeoch pointed out that the base metal is “having a Cocoa moment.”
Comex copper futures for July delivery jumped nearly 5% to $5.12 a pound, exceeding an earlier record for the most active contract set in March 2022. According to Bloomberg, the short squeeze “prompted a scramble to divert metal in other regions to US shores.”
Comex copper futures are breaking out.
Comex copper futures are in one of the biggest-ever backwardation periods – a clear indication of severely tight supply.
“Short spread and futures holders are being squeezed,” Michael Cuoco, head of hedge fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group, told Bloomberg.
Here’s more commentary on the copper squeeze in the US via McGeoch:
Copper got funky on LME close, the …Copper we see arb positions driving (short CMX/long LME basis producer hedges and other factors) and have seen big unwinds on this, the spread got to +$900 (o’night it got to 1200t….saw people shorting it at $600 and getting stopped out literally hours later). There is also a seemingly large Chinese/Asian position (the arb CMX/SHFE getting bought again over night). The financial flows are typically more CMX heavy (options and outrights) and the change in liquidity. mkt structure is compromised as there is not that much Copper available on CMX to be delivered. For the next two weeks its likely to stay unhinged, as the positions are all against July expiry and we are unsure how it solves ahead of that, ie the delivery mechanism to solve.
Short-squeeze in commodities markets occurs when traders are forced to exit positions due to increasing margin calls or the threat of having to deliver physical material.
Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Dongwu Jiuying Investment Management, explained that the surge in the July contract was partly driven by a squeeze on traders involved in reverse arbitrage, where they short Comex and go long on Shanghai copper.
This coincides with dwindling copper mining supplies and a surge in AI data center investments across the US. Additionally, the US and UK have banned Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel.
ZH’s The Market Ear penned a note earlier indicating the parabolic price action in copper is getting overextended.
with the copper shortage this merger will be good for anglo
zero hedge
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 41.35PTS OR 0.22%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 176,60 OR 0.46%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2341 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2372/ Oil DOWN TO 78,87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82.97 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2341
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2372
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 41.35 PTS OR 0.22%
2. Nikkei closed UP 176,60 PTS OR 0.46 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.03 EURO RISES TO 1.0797 UP 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.941 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.61 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5345/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.891 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.325%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.346
3j Gold at $2347.00//Silver at: 28.46 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 23 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.23
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.61/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.941% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9081 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9808well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.495 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.643 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.861 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.27…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2124 UP 1 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar As Rate-Cut Hopes Rise On Small CPI Miss
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 09:11 AM
A 0.1% MoM miss in Headline CPI and continued slowing in Core CPI was all the algos needed to ‘buy all the things’.
The initial reaction to this morning’s data was a surge in rate-cut expectations – two cuts fully priced back in for 2024 and more than three more cuts priced in for 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
That sent stocks soaring…
…and TSY yields tumbling with 10Y erasing all of its increase since the last CPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold is rising – from its pre April CPI level…
Source: Bloomberg
As the dollar dived back towards pre-April CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin rose on the cool CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, it’s still early in the day…
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
ROBERT H;
Look to Japan as the epicenter of a major storm … very soon
Years ago, i wrote and cautioned that non existent interest rates in Japan would be the eye of the storm that broadsides the world economy.
People do not know that much of the money going back to the time when the Soviet Union was taken down under Regan; there has been globs of money floating in Asian markets. As to why and how is too long to explain without several chapters. And too few remain to understand how the Ruble was taken down. Except that the clean up from then was never done. This error will now shortly come home to roost. There is no avoiding it.
Thus with rates now rising in Japan expect that a major STORM is coming as rates rise that will affect all global markets as stagflation comes to shore. Why? Because the Yen/USD trades will be forced to unwind; It is that simple. No need to understand currency cross trades and borrowing to swap to borrow.
I cannot emphasize enough that contrary to belief rates are going to rise. This will cause major moves in gold and trade finance costs.
This will also be a near death experience for some parties. Expect unexpected consequences in places like Brazil which has the largest Japanese population outside of Japan. Thus countries like Brazil will be hit unexpectedly as will a number of Asian countries and currencies. Expect Australia to suffer badly.
Cheers
Robert
end
3 CHINA
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
SLOVAKIA
Slovakia’s Populist Prime Minister Robert Fico Has Been Shot
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 09:21 AM
Slovakia’s populist prime minister Robert Fico has been shot, according to breaking news reports, after which he was rushed to the hospital and appears to be alive according to early reports. But some reports have listed his condition as “very serious” and that he had to be airlifted.
According to emerging details in The Associated Press, Fico “was injured in a shooting and taken to hospital. The incident took place in the town of Handlova, some 150 kilometers northeast of the capital, according to the news television station TA3.”
Local authorities say that a suspect is in custody. The shooting happened in front of the House of Culture where a government meeting was taking place.
One eyewitness “saw the prime minister being lifted from the ground by security guards and loaded into a car and driven away.”
Several people were greeting Fico and the moment the shots rang out, after which the prime minister fell to the ground. The would-be assassin was then taken by police. No details have been released as to the extent of his injuries.
Unconfirmed video of the immediate aftermath:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/slovakias-populist-prime-minister-robert-fico-has-been-shot
Details on the assassination attempt on Slovakian PM Robert Fico: The shooter was hiding in the crowd that had gathered at the building where the Prime Minister was speaking. He fired from within the crowd, presumably 3-4 times. He then tried to escape but was apprehended by bystanders and security. A helicopter quickly arrived at the scene and transported Fico, who was injured, to a hospital in Bratislava. Social media reports that the politician was wounded in the abdominal area.
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He has been outspoken against deepening Western involvement in the Ukraine war, for which he’s made many enemies and critics among Western allies, and of course within Ukraine itself.
For example, here’s how CNN last October described his ascendancy to prime minister and leader of the small NATO member state… “A party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia, official results show, in what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine.”
However, at this early point a motive is unknown.
A national outlet in Slovakia has reported the following unconfirmed details of his condition (machine translation):
According to the available information, which immediately began to spread, Prime Minister Robert Fico was hit by 2-3 wounds, allegedly in the limb, chest and abdomen. It is said that up to 4-5 shots should have been fired. According to information from the PLUS 7 DAYS weekly , someone from the crowd called out “Robo, come here” and the shooting started.
“It’s a gunshot wound to the abdomen and arm. He’s currently out of danger. They’re going to operate on him,” our well-informed source told us at 3:30 p.m.
developing…
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL/HAMAS///GAZA
IDF kills dozens of Hamas terrorists in largest Gaza battle in two months
Multiple defense sources have assured the Jerusalem Post that Tuesday’s fights are an indication of a more significant volume of Hamas terrorists reconstituting themselves in Jabalya.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBMAY 14, 2024 12:53Updated: MAY 14, 2024 12:54
IDF Division 98 on Tuesday killed dozens of Hamas terrorists in Jabalya in northern Gaza in the largest Gaza battle since mid-March and the largest battle in Jabalya itself since January.
Although the IDF started its reinvasion of Jabalya over Saturday-Sunday, only on Tuesday did the military finally find and confront larger quantities of Hamas’s reconstituted forces in that northern Gaza area.
Until Tuesday, fights in Jabalya since January had only involved IDF altercations with smaller terror cells, often of only a handful of Hamas fighters at a time.
The last large fight anywhere in the Strip was during a reinvasion of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City in mid-March. That reinvasion lasted between one to two weeks, depending on how one categorizes different stages of the fighting.
Questions raised over evacuation of northern Gaza
Until now, it has been unclear why the IDF evacuated 100,000-150,000, between one-third to one-half of the remaining northern Gaza civilian population, for a new large operation in Jabalya, given that the last few days have involved relatively minor altercations.
But multiple defense sources have assured the Jerusalem Post that Tuesday’s fights are more of an indication of a more significant volume of Hamas terrorists reconstituting themselves in Jabalya.
In addition, IDF Division 162 continued smaller battles in Rafah, and IDF Division 99 continued smaller battles in Zeitoun, killing lower numbers of Hamas fighters.
The IDF still has not broadened its operations in Rafah beyond portions of the eastern area, though the Post has been told by Israeli defense sources that such a broadening operation could come soon and US sources have told CNN that the massing of additional IDF forces appears ready to broaden the Rafah operation.
In the face of US threats to halt the transfer of large American bombs, one move Israel may make is to invade Rafah without using as much airpower.
This could expose IDF ground forces to greater dangers, but those forces would still be able to use tanks and artillery to overpower Hamas’s four Rafah battalions.
Israel’s air force has not powered down completely, with the IDF saying on Tuesday that it carried out over 100 airstrikes throughout the Strip over Monday-Tuesday.
END
Four troops seriously wounded as IDF looks to expand northern Gaza, Rafah offensives
Army spokesperson says over 300 gunmen killed in Rafah, Gaza City suburbs, IDF releases footage showing alleged Hamas gunmen at UN facilities in southern Gaza city
By EMANUEL FABIAN, FOLLOW
AGENCIES and TOI STAFFToday, 3:08 am
IDF troops are seen operating in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, May 14, 2024 (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
Four Israeli soldiers were seriously wounded in separate battles with gunmen across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, Israeli authorities said, as the military expanded a renewed offensive in the north of the Strip centered around the Gaza City suburb of Jabaliya.
Three soldiers from the Paratroopers Brigade suffered serious injuries during a gunbattle in northern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces said, while a fourth troop from the Givati Brigade was seriously hurt as a result of an explosive device that detonated in Rafah in the far south of Gaza City.
Five other troops were moderately injured in the same battle in northern Gaza, while the Rafah blast left another five soldiers moderately and lightly wounded.
Israeli forces have recently returned to Jabaliya after the IDF identified terror operatives regrouping there. The city, just north of Gaza City, was one of the first targets of an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza which launched in late October as Jerusalem seeks to uproot the Hamas terror group and return hostages held in the Strip.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Tuesday that troops are now operating in areas of Jabaliya that the IDF previously did not reach in the initial ground offensive in northern Gaza. More than 80 gunmen have been killed in the operation that started on Sunday.
Also Tuesday, Israel expanded an evacuation order for Palestinian civilians in the city. IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee instructed civilians in the al-Atatra and Salatin areas to move to shelters west of Gaza City.
More than 150 gunmen have been killed in the nearby Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City since Israeli troops relaunched an offensive there, Hagari said.
Some 80 sites used by terror groups were destroyed as well, he said.
The IDF has had to return to previously conquered places such as Jabaliya and Zeitoun due to indications that the Hamas terror group has reemerged since the main thrust of Israel’s offensive shifted to the south of the Strip.
Some critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war strategy have blamed his administration’s inability to determine what will replace Hamas as the civilian authority in Gaza for the army having to double back into northern Gaza.
“There is no doubt that a governmental alternative to Hamas will create pressure on Hamas, but that is a question for the political echelon,” Hagari said Tuesday in response to a question.
An Israeli airstrike hits a building in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, May 14, 2024 (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
Most attention in Gaza in recent weeks has been focused on the south, where Israel recently launched what it has described as a “precise” operation to uproot Hamas from what is considered its last remaining major stronghold.
Hagari said more than 100 gunmen had been killed there and 10 tunnel systems located since Israel pushed into Rafah last week, Hagari said.
Israel invaded Gaza following the October 7 massacre, during which thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed into southern Israel communities, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 252 hostage in Gaza. Israel has vowed to eliminate Hamas to ensure it no longer poses a threat, but is also involved in indirect talks with the group aimed at an extended truce and exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Visiting troops in eastern Rafah on Tuesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi was told by commanders there that “there are also hostages in the Rafah area. We are determined to do whatever it takes to create the conditions for them to return to us soon,” Hagari said.
Fighting has also persisted in central Gaza, where the IDF said that it struck a Hamas command room based out of a UNRWA school in Nuseirat, resulting in the deaths of more than 15 terror operatives, including 10 Hamas members. Among those killed were terrorists of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force who participated in the October 7 onslaught, Israel said.
Over 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, including 82 on Monday and Tuesday, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants. The numbers cannot be verified, nor can Israeli claims that some 15,000 combatants have been killed.
The army says 272 soldiers have been killed during the ground offensive against Hamas and amid operations along the Gaza border.
The IDF said the strike on the school was carried out following “accurate intelligence” provided by the Shin Bet security agency and Military Intelligence Directorate.
“The strike was carefully planned and carried out using precise munitions while avoiding harming civilians as much as possible,” the military said in a statement.
IDF troops are seen operating in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, May 14, 2024 (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
According to the IDF and Shin Bet, the command room was used by Hamas to plan attacks against troops operating in central Gaza in recent weeks.
In drone footage captured over the weekend and released by the IDF on Tuesday, Palestinian gunmen were also seen at a UNRWA logistics center in Rafah, and near United Nations vehicles.
According to the IDF, the gunmen were spotted by troops of the Givati Brigade on Saturday at the UNRWA logistics center in eastern Rafah.
The video showed the gunmen next to UN vehicles and in the logistics compound itself, which the IDF said is used by the UN body to deliver humanitarian aid. One clip was also said by the military to show a gunman opening fire inside the complex.
Following the “unusual event,” the military said representatives of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) “conveyed the findings to senior officials in the international community and called on the UN to investigate the matter urgently.”
COGAT officials also “warned the UN against the presence of terrorists in the area, and the seriousness of the danger that exists in the presence of the terrorists in the logistics center compound with regard to the continued protection of the organization’s facilities.”
Israel has previously accused UNRWA of enabling Hamas to use its facilities in Gaza for terror. It has also provided evidence that several agency employees are members of terror groups and were involved in the October 7 attack.
Following the release of the drone footage, Katz wrote on X that UNRWA “is an arm of the terrorist organization Hamas,” and called on the organization’s chief, Philippe Lazzarini, to resign.
The footage was sent out a day after a member of the UN’s security staff was killed and another was wounded in a strike on a UN vehicle en route to the European hospital in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah. On Tuesday, the world body blamed Israel for the death, saying the car had been clearly marked before it was struck by shots fired from a tank.
The IDF previously said the incident would be probed, but claimed that the car had been in an active combat zone and had not updated an Israeli deconfliction line about its route.
50 trucks ‘not nearly enough’
Nearly 450,000 of the roughly one million Palestinians who had been sheltering in Rafah have evacuated in recent days as the IDF has escalated its operations in Gaza’s southernmost city.
The IDF says four of Hamas’s remaining six battalions are located in Rafah, along with the terror group’s leadership and many of the hostages. But it has faced pressure from the US and much of the rest of the international community to not carry out a full-scale offensive in the city.
IDF troops are seen operating in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, May 14, 2024 (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is scheduled to visit Israel later this week and will discuss the situation in Rafah with Netanyahu.
Despite concerns that the IDF will escalate its offensive in the Hamas stronghold, a US official confirmed on Tuesday evening that Jerusalem has given assurances that it will not do so before Sullivan arrives.
The US has ramped up its criticism of Israel’s handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza in the days since the IDF seized the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip on May 7.
On Tuesday, US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said that just 50 aid trucks had entered Gaza on Sunday, describing the convoy as “not nearly enough.”
Patel reiterated that while Washington backed military pressure on Hamas, it was not the only way to “fully defeat” the terror organization.
Without a political plan for Gaza’s future, the terror group will “keep coming back, and Israel will continue to remain under threat,” Patel said, leading to “this continued cycle of violence.”
Rejecting the notion that Israel is solely responsible for managing the humanitarian crisis unleashed in Gaza by its war with Hamas, Foreign Minister Israel Katz called for Egypt to resume sending humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing, which Cairo refuses to do in protest of the IDF takeover.
In a statement, Katz said he discussed the matter yesterday with his British and German counterparts and was also scheduled to talk about it later today with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
IDF troops are seen operating in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, May 14, 2024 (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
“The world is placing the responsibility of Israel for the humanitarian issue, but the key to preventing a humanitarian crisis is now in the hands of our Egyptian friends,” he said.
His comments prompted an angry response from Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry who said in a statement that Israel’s seizure of the Rafah crossing and its military operations in the area were the main obstacles to aid entering Gaza.
Yesterday, I spoke with UK Foreign Secretary
and German Foreign Minister
about the need to persuade Egypt to reopen the Rafah crossing to allow the continued delivery of international humanitarian aid to Gaza. Today, I will discuss the matter with Italian Foreign Minister
. The world places the responsibility for the humanitarian situation on Israel, but the key to preventing a humanitarian crisis in Gaza is now in the hands of our Egyptian friends. Hamas will not control the Rafah crossing – this is a security necessity on which we will not compromise.
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Meanwhile, the US military is expected to connect one end of a hulking metal dock — the length of five US football fields — to a beach in northern Gaza to allow for more aid to be brought into the enclave.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said that humanitarian groups are ready for the first shipments through the US maritime route. “In the coming days, you can expect to see this effort underway. And we are confident that that we will be able to, working with our NGO partners, ensure that aid can be delivered,” he said.
ISRAEL/GAZA/ARAB STATES//OPINION
The American administration is guilty of wishful thinking – opinion
The American effort to stop the war hasn’t helped shore up the fragile trust that the moderate Arab countries – who wish to see an Israeli victory – have in the United States.
By EFRAIM INBARMAY 15, 2024 06:07
The present American administration sees the war in Gaza as an opportunity to build a regional defense architecture against Iran to increase stability in the region and prevent escalation to a regional war. In its view, Saudi Arabia, after signing a defense treaty with the United States, will develop the military capability to stand up to Iran and will join the Abraham Accords. This, it hopes, will open the way for additional Muslim countries to normalize their relations with Israel.
This is the “sweetener” on offer to Jerusalem, which will have to commit to a path to a Palestinian state, while the Palestinians will have to undertake major political reforms. Approval of a defense treaty needs support of two-thirds of the Senate, which means that President Joe Biden needs Israel to help him to convince Republican senators to approve the American-Saudi deal. This, in the Biden administration’s view, is the way to prevent Iran from taking over the Middle East.
Unfortunately, some of the assumptions behind this American plan are misplaced and most of Washington’s measures do not serve its goal.
Coalition against Iran
Every defense alliance is based on the deterrent capability and willingness of the lead member of the alliance to employ military force. As we have seen throughout the war in Gaza, the US, despite its strength, has failed to deter Iran from operating its proxies against American forces in Syria and Iraq.
Hezbollah, too, has launched a war of attrition against an American ally, Israel. The Houthis, an additional Iranian proxy, opened fire on ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important international waterway, and were not deterred by limited American strikes.
Moreover, despite a warning from the US president, Iran launched a direct missile and drone attack on Israel. Without American willingness to confront Iran militarily – a necessary component of deterrence – the defense alliance that the Biden administration wishes to construct will be built on shaky foundations. It appears that the Arab states are not convinced that the United States will come to their defense in the event of an Iranian aggression.
EVEN THOUGH Biden initially saw the war against Hamas as a struggle of Western culture against evil, he later changed his tune. Election considerations and ideological impulses coming from the progressive wing of the Democratic party led to a policy aimed at holding Israel back and preventing it from defeating Hamas, an Islamist group hostile to the US and Western culture.
The American effort to stop the war hasn’t helped shore up the fragile trust that the moderate Arab countries – who wish to see an Israeli victory – have in the United States. In the political culture of the Middle East, where the use of force is part of the toolbox at the disposal of the region’s states, America’s fear of escalation and the possible need to confront Iran militarily damages the image of the US as a desirable ally. Moreover, American pressure on Israel during wartime seems puzzling and does not convey strong support for its allies.
Neither does the American obsession with a Palestinian state serve its alliance building. All the more so if Hamas is left to remain part of the Palestinian political establishment. Hamas, an Iranian ally, has a good chance of taking over the state that the Americans are eager to establish within the framework of an anti-Iranian alliance. This state would be a Trojan horse.
Moreover, the chances of a fundamental change in Palestinian politics leading to the establishment of a political entity with a monopoly on the use of force, and that has no armed groups fighting for leadership, are minimal.
Would such a Palestinian state be much different from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen – countries that are engaged in civil wars? Would a Palestinian state be able to free itself in our generation from its hatred for Jews and Israel? The US is suffering from dangerous delusions when it comes to these questions.
Washington will need Israel’s blessing to ensure a Senate majority for the defense pact and other sweeteners that Riyadh wants. The assumption that the Saudis, who until now have bought their influence with their riches, will now become fierce fighters, is problematic. The Saudis are insisting that they be able to enrich uranium on their soil, just like Iran. If this happens, it will spark a nuclear arms race with Turkey and Egypt, which are also seeking to get in on the act.
This is contrary to long-term American interests and policy that seeks to prevent nuclear proliferation. Israel should certainly not give its support to measures that could lead to a multi-polar nuclear Middle East. This would be a strategic nightmare, even if the upside is the Saudi flag flying over an embassy in Tel Aviv.
Unfortunately, the current foreign policy of the leader of the free world is confused and full of contradictions.
The writer is the president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and chairman of the Department of Strategy, Diplomacy, and Security at Shalem College.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah commander said killed in alleged Israeli strike on car in Tyre
Hezbollah names slain operative after Israel said to hit car in Tyre
Hezbollah says one of its operatives was killed in fighting with Israel, hours after Lebanese security sources told Reuters one of the terror group’s field commanders had been targeted in an alleged Israeli airstrike on a car in southern Lebanon’s Tyre.
The operative is named as Hussein Ibrahim Makki from the southern Lebanese town of Beit Yahoun. He was in his mid-50s.
المقــ ـاومـ ـة الإسـ ـلامـ ـية تزف الشــ ـهيد حسين ابراهيم مكّي “السيد مكّي” من بلدة بيت ياحون في جنوب لبنان #ملحقTranslated from Arabic by
The Islamic Resistance mourns the martyr Hussein Ibrahim Makki, “Mr. Makki,” from the town of Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon. #ملحق
Was this translation accurate? Give us feedback so we can improve:
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Emergency responders said two others were wounded in the strike.
The Hezbollah statement does not list a rank or role for Makki.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/RAFAH
Netanyahu Says Rafah Op To Take ‘Weeks, Not Months’ As EU Warns Of Damaged Ties
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 11:45 AM
On Wednesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the controversial Rafah offensive, which has been criticized by a number of Western allies including Washington, is expected to “last weeks” and not not months or years.
The Israeli leader appears to be trying to calm the storm of condemnation coming from the West, especially in Europe at a moment at least 500,000 Palestinians have been forced to flee Rafah. On the same day the European Union issued a call for Israel to stop the Rafah operation “immediately”.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that if PM Netanyahu doesn’t reverse course, it will put a heavy strain on ties. “Should Israel continue its military operation in Rafah, it would inevitably put a heavy strain on the EU’s relationship with Israel,” he said a statement issued in the bloc’s name.
“The European Union urges Israel to end its military operation in Rafah immediately,” the EU official statement said. It warned that Israel’s military actions are “further disrupting the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza and is leading to more internal displacement, exposure to famine and human suffering.”
Israel’s army has meanwhile officially disclosed its first death from the Rafah ground operation, which has thus far involved some tank units penetrating Rafah’s eastern section:
An Israeli soldier was killed during fighting in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the military announced Wednesday morning, marking the first fatality in the Israel Defense Forces’ push into Rafah.
The slain soldier was named as Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, 19, from Petah Tikva. He served in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion.
Gispan’s death brought the toll of slain troops in the Israel Defense Forces ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in operations on the border to 273.
The Netanyahu government has thus far sought to deflect criticism by calling the operation “limited” in scope, and so far focusing only on specific sections of the city, after dropping tens of thousands of leaflets warning civilians they must leave.
But this hasn’t satisfied the EU. The new statement continues, “While the EU recognizes Israel’s right to defend itself, Israel must do so in line with International Humanitarian Law and provide safety to civilians.”
The EU further calls on Israel “to refrain from further exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and reopen the crossing point of Rafah.”
According to some of the latest Wednesday developments via Al Jazeera:
- Many casualties are feared after reports of an Israeli attack on an internet access point in central Gaza City.
- Fierce gun battles rage in northern Gaza’s Jabalia and southern Rafah as Israeli military incursions intensify against Palestinian armed groups. Hamas and Israel’s army both claim significant enemy casualties.
- At least 82 Palestinians have been killed in the past 24 hours, the highest death toll in a single day in many weeks, during relentless Israeli air attacks.
- More than 450,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah city with another 100,000 evacuating the north as Israel’s military launches new attacks.
- At least 35,233 people killed and 79,141 wounded in Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7. The revised death toll in Israel from Hamas’s October 7 attacks stands at 1,139, with dozens of people still held captive.
Hamas publish footage of them fighting in northern Gaza
·https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1790407437742137453
225.9K Views
EU and US statements have had little impact in what has only amounted to a verbal tit-for-tat of criticisms. Biden has threatened to withhold offensive weapons, but at the same time has unveiled $1 billion in new defense aid for Israel this week. Clearly this won’t ‘deter’ Israel’s path forward in the counter-Hamas Rafah offensive. Israel’s defense chief has also announced Wednesday that relations with the US are still “strong and stable”.
end
Biden Readies $1BN In Bombs For Israel Despite Progressive & Swing State Voter Revolt
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 03:05 PM
The Biden administration continues to speak out of both sides of its mouth when it comes to Israel and Gaza policy as Progressive Democratic voters continue peeling off in droves, declaring that they can’t in good conscience vote for Biden in November.
On Tuesday, the contradictions continued and abounded, as the White House informed Congress it is planning a new $1 billion arms transfer to Israel. And ironically this will mark the first new package since Biden earlier this month announced it paused a weapon shipment to Israel on human rights concerns.
A State Department report has since found that US weapons have likely been used in a way contrary to international humanitarian law, but stopped short of condemning Israel for war crimes.
The Wall Street Journal first broke the news of the new package, writing “The Biden administration notified Congress on Tuesday that it was moving forward with more than $1 billion in new weapons deals for Israel, U.S. and congressional officials said, a massive arms package less than a week after the White House paused a shipment of bombs over a planned Israeli assault on Rafah.”
Here’s what the newly proposed package includes:
- $700 million in tank ammunition
- $500 million in tactical vehicles
- $60 million in mortar rounds
This follows on the heels of Congress passing and Biden sighing into effect the $95 billion package of foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Biden’s threats to pause shipments of offensive weapons to Israel has come under criticism by Democrat pro-Israel hawks in the last several days. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has responded this week by saying: “We strongly, strongly oppose attempts to constrain the President’s ability to deploy US security assistance consistent with US foreign policy and national security objectives.”
Meanwhile, Democrats continue to be angry over the Gaza crisis:
Approximately 13% of poll respondents in six swing states who voted for U.S. President Joe Biden in 2020 but would not vote for him again said that his foreign policy or Israel’s war on Gaza were the most important issues determining their vote.
The figure comes as part of a new set of polls released Monday from The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer that show former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Biden in 5 out of 6 crucial battleground states.
“We have warned that this would happen for months, and the Democratic Party didn’t give a damn,” author and organizer Daniel Denvir wrote on social media in response to the news.
We have warned that this would happen for months and the Democratic Party didn’t give a damn.
The policy debate continues raging within Israel itself, with Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant on Wednesday calling on Netanyahu to affirm that Israel won’t govern Gaza after Hamas is defeated.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
“The Russians Just Walked In”: Ukraine Border Defense Funds Diverted To Fake Companies In Massive “Betrayal”
TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2024 – 10:20 PM
Authored by Thomas Stevenson via Human Events (emphasis ours),
Head of the Mezha Anti-Corruption Center, Martyna Bohuslavets, has written a report in Pravda asking “Where are the fortifications?” She reports that millions of dollars that were intended for the construction of fortifications in Ukraine were instead “transferred to Kharkiv OVA to front companies of avatars.”
Bohuslavets said the Ukrainian Kharkiv Regional Military Administration (Kharkiv OVA) paid out funds to fictitious companies during the construction and fortification of the Kharkiv region. The report comes as Russian forces have broken into the northern region of Ukraine and the US continues funding the war.
According to Ukranian Pravda reports, the Russian military has begun to advance in the northern region of Ukraine where funding that was set for fortification was transferred to fake companies. The offensive from the Russian military launched on Monday with attacks on towns and villages, the Kyiv Post reports. A total of 7 billion hryvnias was spent there by Ukraine, according to the report.
This comes as the BBC reports that a regional Ukrainian commander in Kharkiv has said that the first line of defense was missing in a massive “betrayal” in the northern region of the country. Denys Yaroslavskyi, a commander in the region in charge of the Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, told the outlet, “There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields.”
He told the BBC that government officials claimed to have built up the mines as the first line of defense at a huge cost. He told reporters, “Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal.” He then added, “When we were fighting back for this territory in 2022, we lost thousands of people. We risked our lives.”
“And now because someone didn’t build fortifications, we’re losing people again,” he stated.
In March, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported on the lack of oversight on the funds going to Ukraine during the war. GAO found in its report from March that the Defense Department is lacking in its ability to provide oversight on the resources being sent to Ukraine in the war.
The GAO reported, “DOD does not have quality data to track delivery of defense articles to Ukraine. DOD guidance on PDA does not clearly define at what point in the delivery process defense articles should be recorded as delivered or provide clear instructions for how DOD service branches are to confirm delivery.”
It added that full documentation of the funding being sent to the military effort has been lacking.
Ukraine has entered the “where is the money, Lebowski” phase
Quote
Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
·
May 13
Holy shlit
Russia was able to re-invade Northern Ukraine bc local officials pocketed the money sent for defense
·
458.8K Views
END
RUSSIA UKRAINE
Russia Is About To Overrun Ukraine’s Defenses – Why Are There No Peace Negotiations?
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
There are two classic propaganda narratives used by governments when it comes to keeping the public invested in any war campaign that does nothing to advance their national interests:
- First, there’s the “commitment” lie, which says that once you step in to support a war effort you then must stay exponentially committed, even if that war effort is exposed as pointless. Anytime the public pulls back from that war in a bid to reconsider what purpose it serves they are ridiculed for potentially “risking lives” and setting the stage for defeat. In other words, you must support the effort blindly. You’re not allowed to examine the conflict rationally, because who wants to be blamed for losing a war?
- Second, there’s the “domino effect” lie, which says that if you allow a particular “enemy” to win in one conflict, they will automatically be emboldened to invade other countries until they own the entire planet. It’s the same claim used to trick the American populace into supporting the war in Vietnam and it rarely turns out to be true. In fact, nations that engage in regional wars tend to be so weakened by the fighting that they don’t have the means to move on to another country even if they wanted to.
In the US we heard both of these narratives heading into the recent congressional vote for billions more in monetary and logistical aid to Ukraine. Neocons and Democrats worked together to force the bill through with a percentage of true conservatives fighting to stop it. Those conservatives were attacked relentlessly by the media for “helping the Russians”, but the reality that no one in the mainstream wants to talk about is that Ukraine has already lost the war.
No amount of additional funding or arms shipments are going to help them, and it has nothing to do with conservatives questioning the validity of war spending. Anyone who has a basic understanding of military strategy knows that the key to winning is ALWAYS manpower first, logistics second. Not superior technology or armaments, not superior cash and certainly not popular support from foreign interests.
This is especially true in a war of attrition, and attrition is in fact the method being used by Russia to systematically whittle down Ukraine’s forces. However, the western media refuses to discuss what’s really happening and has been acting as a hype machine for Ukraine instead.
In September of 2022 I noted that the Russian pullback to the Donbas was not the “retreat” the western media made it out to be. Many establishment talking heads claimed that this was the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin and that Ukrainian forces would be taking Crimea in the near future.
I argued that Russia was likely trying to consolidate its position as western artillery and tanks flooded into Ukraine. I also suggested that Russia wanted to avoid urban combat in major cities while tens-of-thousands of seasoned mercenaries were rushing to the front from the US and Europe. I predicted that the Russian pullback was in preparation for surgical strikes on western Ukraine’s resources and grid infrastructure.
With Ukraine’s grid heavily damaged, a large portion of the population would leave the cities and head for Europe until the war played out. Putin has specifically avoided major fighting within larger urban centers for a reason. Driving civilians out of metropolitan areas would make it easier for Russia to strike Ukraine in a secondary offensive without risking extensive collateral damage in the form of civilian casualties. This is exactly what has happened.
Almost 7 million Ukrainians left the country outright in the past 2 years, with another 6 million displaced (mostly from larger cities). Currently, Russia is moving to push civilians out of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second biggest city, and they will probably be successful given their momentum and the destruction of water and power resources. With civilians out of the way a more aggressive attack can then be initiated.
Russia has been using an “artillery bubble” as a tool to protect ground forces as they push an advance. Meaning, troops will only attack as far as the artillery can reach. Artillery is vital to a large scale offensive. Coincidentally, Russia doubled its importation of explosive materials commonly used for artillery in the past several months. They are now reportedly producing triple the amount of artillery that NATO is providing to Ukraine.
Mainstream analysts claim the push towards Kharkiv move might be a feint, allowing Russia to increase the size of its buffer zone. They continue to assert that Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary for a major offensive. I would say it depends on how weak Ukraine’s defensive lines actually are. Russia has been consistently using large scale Pincer movements to envelop defensive positions and destroy them.
In the past two weeks alone Russia has gained considerable ground. Russian troops recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove (Luhansk Oblast), near Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast), in Robotyne (Zaporizhzhya Oblast), and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War reported on May 6th. The reason for this is relatively simple – Ukraine lacks the manpower to effectively establish defense in-depth. All the reports coming from the front support this theory.
That is to say, Ukraine’s defensive lines are a facade with no secondary positions or trenches to stall Russian breakthroughs. Once the Russians cut the main line there’s nothing much stopping them from gaining large stretches of ground. Some analysts have blamed this development on a lack of Ukrainian foresight or strategic preparedness, but I would argue that they just don’t have enough people to defend more than a single forward line.
My position is backed by numerous reports of the government’s desperate struggles with conscription. For the past six months the average age of Ukraine recruits is 43 years old. Meaning, youth recruitment is waning, either because younger people don’t want to fight and are avoiding the draft by leaving the country, or too many have died.
The conscription problem has been hidden by the western media for many months now, but even corporate news platforms are starting to admit that there is a severe lack of new recruits. Front line fighters have been complaining for months that they need to be cycled away from the trenches and given rest.
Another bad sign is the fact that Ukraine has been using Special Forces soldiers for trench duty. These units are trained specifically for asymmetric hit-and-run warfare, not sitting in mud holes waiting for artillery strikes to rain down on their fixed and exposed positions. It seems like pure stupidity, but it makes sense if Ukraine is actually running out of people to hold their only defensive line.
The cover-up of massive casualties is something I mentioned in past articles on the war and I think it bears repeating: Western warhawks continue to claim that it will be “cheaper” to use Ukrainian soldiers to fight Russia than to fight a larger war down the road with American and European lives.
The sociopathy behind this rationale is disturbing. The lack of manpower in Ukraine cannot be solved. It is a product of endless death paid for with our tax dollars. NATO has prolonged the fighting with funding and arms, but not to win, only to sacrifice more people in a bloody conflict Ukraine is destined to lose.
Their argument also assumes that Americans and Europeans are going to jump blindly into military service in a war against Russia. I don’t know about Europeans, but I do know for a fact that most Americans are not going to buy in and will refuse a draft. The majority of the US public doesn’t even want to send further aid to Ukraine; they certainly aren’t going to go die for Ukraine. The arrogance of the warhawks is mind boggling.
The bottom line is this: Ukraine is about to be overrun. They didn’t have the manpower to effectively launch a counteroffensive. They don’t have the manpower to establish defense in-depth. And, they are using their most seasoned soldiers as cannon fodder in the trenches.
This dynamic demands that diplomatic solutions be entertained, but no one seems to be talking about that. Why?
As I theorized in my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’, the underlying plan may very well be to try to force Americans and Europeans to accept an expanding war with Russia. The western public has been bombarded with lies about Ukraine’s ability to win; when they lose people will be shocked and incensed by the outcome.
Maybe the elites hope that the populace will be so angry about the loss that they will rally around a larger war effort by NATO? The French government has already asserted that they are willing to send troops to Ukraine in direct confrontation with Russia, while Lithuania and Poland have said they will not rule out the possibility.
Now is the time for peace negotiations, BEFORE Ukraine is overrun. Will this happen? Probably not. But when diplomacy is removed from the table completely the only conclusion we can come to is that a greater war is desired. And when greater war is desired, we also have to conclude that our leadership has something substantial to gain by putting the world at risk.
You might be on the side of Ukraine, you might be on the side of Russia, you might not care about either side, but there’s no denying that this war is being escalated by special interests and we need to ask why?
* * *
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COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
Over $13 Million Paid Out In Vaccine Injury Claims In Australia
TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2024 – 11:00 PM
Authored by Monica O’Shea via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Australian government has paid out $20.5 million (US$13.2 million) in COVID-19 vaccine injury claims to people who experienced harm from the jab.
Services Australia data provided to The Epoch Times reveals 6.82 percent of claims have been compensated so far, that is 286 out of 4,191.
“As at 31 March 2024, the COVID-19 Vaccine Claims Scheme has received 4,191 claims and paid 286 claims to the value of around $20.5 million,” a spokesperson said.
“Services Australia expects to receive new claims until the COVID-19 Vaccine Claims Scheme’s end date of 30 September 2024.”
The updated figures up to the end of March, follow a submission to the government’s COVID-19 Inquiry, revealing it had paid $16.9 million worth of claims up to the end of November 2023.
The federal government is due to deliver a budget for 2024/2025 covering all government agencies in the evening on May 14.
How Does the Vaccine Claims Scheme Work?
Australia’s COVID-19 vaccine claims scheme allows individuals to claim losses above $1,000 in relation to “moderate to severe adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines.”
It covers vaccines approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) including the AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax jabs.
Services Australia administers the scheme on behalf of the Department of Health and Aged Care (DHAC). In April, the Department updated the policy to include more claimable conditions, based on advice from the TGA.
In order to make a compensation claim, individuals must meet the definition of harm, be admitted to hospital as an inpatient, or have a waiver if seen in outpatient care.
Further, those who suffered harm need to have experienced losses or expenses of more than $1,000 due to the vaccine.
The conditions included range from anaphylactic reaction to erythema multiforme (major), myocarditis, pericarditis and thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome.
Also included, are shoulder injuries from the vaccine, or other moderate to significant physical injuries that caused permanent impairment or need an extended period of medical treatment.
“In both cases, the injuries must have been sustained during the physical act of being given the vaccine. You must also have been admitted to hospital as an in-patient,” Services Australia explains.
“Presenting to an emergency department is not recognised as being admitted to hospital.”
Lockdown Lead to Surge in Demand for Government Services
Services Australia revealed it had processed 1.3 million JobSeeker claims in 55 days in 2020, an amount that equates to the claim volume normally processed within two and a half years.
“At the peak, more than 53,000 claims were completed in a single day. Within the same 55 day period, the Agency also received and monitored approximately 3.7 million phone calls, 1.9 million service centre walk-ins, and 250,000 social media interactions,” the department said (pdf).
During Victoria’s lockdown in 2021, demand for COVID-related claims also surged.
“In less than 4 months, between 1 July and 26 October 2021, Services Australia processed over 5.1 million COVID-related claims alone—more than the full-year total of 3.5 million claims across all social security and welfare payments in the year prior to COVID (2018-19).”
Not Enough Focus on Mental Health, Psychologists
Meanwhile, the Australian Association of Psychologists Incorporated (AAPi) has raised concerns that there was not enough focus on mental health support during the pandemic.
“Particularly during times of crisis, such as snap lockdowns, crisis support lines should have been prominently displayed along with the urging of people to reach out for support and the continuation of psychological treatment,” they said.
The Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education (FARE) also raised concerns that alcohol companies and retailers taking advantage of the situation.
“Alcohol companies invested significantly in digital marketing and in expanding their capacity to deliver alcohol, outpacing privacy and marketing regulation,” FARE said.
END
END
CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, May 6-May 13, 2024
Athletes in US (5), Canada, Peru, Brazil, UK (3), France, Germany (5), Spain (4), Congo, Iran, Australia; “vaxxidents” in US (5), Mexico (5), Brazil (3), Germany (5); Italy (2), Russia (7); & more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERMAY 15 |
Note: Click on the countries links for this week’s compilations of those who “died suddenly” (the individual Substacks are too long to email).
United States
United States:
Canada
Mexico, Barbados, Jamaica, Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Chile
Mexico:
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
United Kingdom and Ireland
France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Poland, Czechia, Moldova and Spain
Italy
Congo, Kenya, Uganda, S. Africa, Iran, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, India, S. Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand
Turkey:
Russia:
India:
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
LATEST EVOL NEWS:
NEWS ADDICT
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESPfizer Whistleblower: Elites Received ‘Safe’ Covid Jabs ‘Separate’ to ‘Death Shots’ for PublicA brave whistleblower has leaked internal documents from Pfizer that revealed the company provided “safe” Covid vaccinations for elites which were promised to be “separate” from the batches of “death shots” that were given to the general public.READ THE FULL REPORTTrump’s Defense Lawyer DESTROYS Michael CohenThe defense attorney for President Donald Trump promptly interrogated Michael Cohen regarding his TikTok account during Tuesday’s “hush money” trial proceedings.READ THE FULL REPORTSmugglers Caught Using CHILLING New TechnologyItalian authorities announced on Tuesday that they have successfully seized a remote-controlled submarine that was allegedly being used by drug smugglers.READ THE FULL REPORTBiden Admin RELEASES Dangerous MurdererFederal immigration officials have admitted that a convicted murderer who is an illegal immigrant was erroneously let go into the country due to the ongoing border crisis.READ THE FULL REPORTSuper Bowl Champion SLAMS ‘Delusional’ BidenHarrison Butker, the Super Bowl champion from the Kansas City Chiefs, garnered support from pro-life advocates as he delivered a commencement speech at Benedictine College in Kansas.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA/GUYANA
they want Guyana’s oil
(zerohedge)
Venezuela Moves “Substantial Quantities” Of Troops To Guyana Border
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 12:45 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Venezuela has moved “substantial quantities of [military] personnel and equipment to the border with Guyana amid its territorial dispute over the Essequibo region.
The update comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., which this week released a report on the latest developments in the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.
The think tank talks about an expansion of a military base on Anacoco Island in the area, with new roads and a bridge getting built in the past few months. A local airport is also being expanded, CSIS also said, citing satellite imagery and social media posts.
According to the report’s authors, the activity could be preparation for a “manufactured crisis” before or after Venezuela’s next elections, set to take place in late July.
The Essequibo region encompasses about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is where most of its oil resources lie, and the site of massive discoveries and new production by Exxon and partners.
The International Court of Justice previously ruled that Essequibo is part of Guyana, although this is still not recognized by Venezuela. A written agreement was penned in December between the two that denounced the use of force, instead calling for a commission to address the disputes.
However, after a December referendum, in which Venezuelans overwhelmingly voted that Essequibo is part of their country, the government pushed with its annexation attempt. The buildup of troops began in February this year and prompted expectations of an imminent military conflict.
At the time, Caracas said it had the right to shore up its borders in response to U.S. military exercises in Guyana toward the end of the year and the presence of a UK anti-narcotics vessel that is in Guyanese waters. The Venezuelan government has also criticized Exxon for depending on the U.S. military for its security and for its exploitation of Guyana’s oil resources.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0797 UP .0007
USA/ YEN 156.61 UP 0.365 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2588 DOWN .0006
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3676 UP .0001 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR .07%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 41.35 PTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.30 %
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 41.35 OR 0.22%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 2.25 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.30%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 176.60 PTS OR 0.46%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2345.30
silver:$28.37
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.03 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.046% DOWN 17 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.937% DOWN 1 AND 2/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.196 DOWN 14 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.730 DOWN 17 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4265 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS1`
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0856 UP 0.0042 OR 42 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.29 DOWN 1.231 OR YEN IS UP 123 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 4.110 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0024 OR 24 BASIS pts to 1.3630
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2235 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2211)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.21 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.937…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.371% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.5333 DOWN 6 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.753 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2373.60
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.11
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 13.48 PTS OR 0.29%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 152.92 PTS OR 0.82%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 14.19 PTS OR .17 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 123.50 OR 1.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 214.78 PTS OR 0.61 PTS
WTI Oil price 77.47 12EST/
Brent Oil: 81.95 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.92 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 37/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4265 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1100 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0880 UP 0.0066 OR 66 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2680 UP 0.0096 UP 96 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.094 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .937%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.89 down 1.623/ YEN up 162 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3602 DOWN 0051 //CDN dollar UP 51 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.86
Brent OIL: 82.87
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS pts to 4.356
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.519%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 4.732
USA dollar index: 104.19 DOWN 70 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 22 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.08 UP 0 AND 21//100 roubles
GOLD 2,386.55 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.68 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 349.89 PTS OR 0.88 %
NASDAQ UP 274.68 PTS OR 1.50 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.43 DOWN .99PTS OR 7.33%
GLD: $220.89 UP 2.80 OR 1.28%
SLV/ $27.11 UP .99 OR 3.79%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Soft CPI & Sloppy Sales Spark Run To Record Highs For Stocks; Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Bid
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Nothing good – all bad… and new record highs for stocks.
SuperCore CPI hotter than expected (but headline and core CPI in-line/small miss), Retail sales way uglier than expected (but gas station spending surged), homebuilder sentiment slumped, and Empire Fed Manufacturing ugly…
Source: Bloomberg
Both ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ data is now falling…
Source: Bloomberg
…and the stagflationary threat continues to grow…
Source: Bloomberg
…but the market doesn’t care about growth – it spiked rate-cut expectations on the ‘cool’ CPI (two cuts fully priced in for 2024 and three more cuts – at least – in 2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
And that lifted stonks across the board with Nasdaq leading the way to new record highs (Dow & S&P first new record close since March)
Market volumes were dramatically elevated today, according to Goldman’s trading desk (+45% vs the trailing 20 days), as hedge funds (on an illustrative basis) recovered half the losses from the last two nasty days…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman trader John Flood highlighted the fact that it feels like sentiment during the last “meme” craze was one of confusion and bewilderment where some funds were willing to hold on and trying to wait out the retail crowd. This time around, HFs collectively are just not nearly as exposed to high SI/float stocks as they used to be, so the risk is a lot more manageable, and funds tend to react much more quickly given past lessons.
Source: Goldman Sachs
‘Most Shorted’ stocks dumped back yesterday’s gains today as the meme-stock mania stalled…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX plunged back to a 12 handle today…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were bid today with yields down 8-10bps across the curve (with the belly slightly outperforming the wings)…
Source: Bloomberg
With the swing lower in 10Y yields erasing all the increase in yields since April’s CPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar followed a similar pattern to yields, erasing all of the post-April CPI gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back near record closing highs ($2392). Interestingly, gold was trading at exactly the same level it was before April’s CPI ahead of today’s CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin soared back above $66,000 – this was Bitcoin’s best day since March 2023!…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices rebounded strongly today after early weakness (following inventory draws). The 100DMA once again acted as support with WTI closing back above it…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we noted at the start how ugly the US Macro data was, but there is a potential silver lining…
Source: Bloomberg
The Citi US Macro Surprise Index has a very regular seasonal pattern and 2024 is following it closely… with the positive surprises set to come from here as fiscal year-end looms. Is the ‘no landing’ narrative about to be realized?
END
MORNING TRADING//CPI
Consumer Prices Have Risen Every Month Since ‘Bidenomics’ Began, Up 19.5% To Record High
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 08:41 AM
After a fourth straight month of hotter than expected PPI, analysts’ expectations for CPI were tightly ranged around 0.3-0.4% MoM and printed +0.3% MoM (slightly below the 0.4% expected). The YoY headline CPI fell to +3.4% as expected from +3.5% prior
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Services slowed modestly MoM…
On a 3m and 6m annualized basis, Energy costs are reaccelerating most…
Source: Bloomberg
Used car and truck prices along with Gas Utility prices plunged on a MoM basis…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) with YoY slowing to +3.6%, also as expected…
Source: Bloomberg
Core goods deflation continues while Core Services continue to rise…
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI YoY was 3.6% in April, the lowest it’s been in 3 years. The 1-month annualized fell to the same 3.6% as the YoY, which is why the YoY has been more reliable as a trend measure recently.
- Housing (rent and OER) contributed 17.5 bps to monthly core CPI inflation in April. While still hot (2018-19 average was 11 bps), it’s the lowest monthly contribution since Dec 2021. And as we show in the chart, YoY housing in CPI is cooling.
- Virtually all of the excess core CPI inflation YoY–the part of inflation above and beyond Fed target – resulted from housing & auto insurance. Core non-housing services have heated up on a higher frequency basis but haven’t weighing much (yet) on the annual print.
- Also, while not in core, but extremely important for anyone who eats food: grocery prices actually fell -0.2% MoM in April and are running 1.1% YoY according to the Biden BLS. We doubt anyone will believe this number, which was goalseeked so that wage growth would strongly outpace grocery inflation. Relative to wages, grocery prices are back down below their 2019 levels. This, too, won’t be believed by anyone.
And one step deeper – the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index – rose 0.5% MoM up to 5.05% YoY – the hottest since April 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of SuperCore CPI, Education costs rose (to pay for cleaning up all those protests?) and Transportation Services dominated on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
And while Shelter costs rose on a MoM basis, they continues to slow on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Goods prices are deflating at the fastest pace since April 2004, while Services prices are stuck around +5.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term). And prices have never been more expensive…
Source: Bloomberg
That is an average of 5.5% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).
Finally, and most notably it was a miss… but not for the reason expected…
It was a miss but not for the reason expected: OER catch down STILL to kick in; next few CPI print will be a dovish meltdown
Quote
zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
May 9
One Bank Reveals Why Next Week’s CPI Number Will Be A Jarring Miss https://zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-reveals-why-next-weeks-cpi-number-will-be-big-miss…
·
79.9K View
Which means the next few months CPI will be even bigger misses…
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
not a good sign for the economy. remember retail sales is nominal
Despite Surging Gasoline Spending, US Retail Sales Missed Big In April
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 09:39 AM
For once, BofA’s analysts ‘missed’ as their expectations for a small beat in retail sales was eviscerated by a huge miss across the board.
Headline Retail sales were unchanged MoM (versus +0.4% exp) and last month’s +0.7% MoM move was revised slightly lower to +0.6% MoM.
Source: Bloomberg
Nonstore retailers and Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers saw the biggest MoM declines while spending at Gasoline Stations rose the most (biggest MoM rise since Aug 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
Both headline and core retail sales slowed on a YoY basis (ex-Autos and Gas Stations actually declined 0.1% MoM)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the crucial core-control group – used in GDP calculation – plunged by 0.3% MoM (vs +0.1% MoM exp) – its third big miss in the last four months…
Source: Bloomberg
Not a good start for Q2 GDP.
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Record Household Debt, Jump In Delinquencies Signal “Worsening Financial Distress”, Fed Warns
TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2024 – 06:00 PM
While the market remains focused on tomorrow’s CPI print, and to a lesser extent the April retail sales reports due at the same time, which will both be released at 8:30am on May 15. we should to flag another important report that doesn’t typically get a lot of attention: the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report for 1Q 2024 which was just published, and where the latest data on credit card debt and delinquencies has recently been the most important part of the report.
While we already know that in the latest monthly consumer credit report published by the Fed last week and covering the month of March, total consumer debt hit a record high (despite a sharp slowdown in credit card growth) even as the personal savings rate plunged to an all-time low, hardly a ringing endorsement for the strength of the US consumer…
… today’s report provided more granular details which however did not change the conclusion: the US consumer is getting weaker, and while not in a crisis just yet, will get there soon enough.
As the chart from the NY Fed shows, at the end of the first quarter, US household debt reached a record and more borrowers are struggling to keep up: overall US household debt rose to $17.69 trillion, the NYFed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit revealed (link here). That’s an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%, from the fourth quarter.
Consumers have added $3.4 trillion in debt since the pandemic, and that increased debt bears much higher interest rates.
And with both credit card rates and total credit at all time highs, the data corroborate the mounting financial pressures on American families in an age of elevated inflation. The persistent rise in the prices of essentials such as food and rent have strained household budgets, pushing people to borrow against their credit cards to pay for necessities.
Total credit card debt stood at $1.12 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the report (the number diverges from the monthly print reported last week by the NY Fed and which was much higher), but an increasing number of borrowers are behind on credit card payments. While down slightly sequentially according to this data set (if not the NY Fed’s other data set), the number in line with seasonal patterns of consumers paying debt incurred over the holidays. But as Bloomberg notes, credit card balances are up almost 25% from the first quarter of 2020.
“Credit card balances usually rise in the second and third quarters and then they really tend to spike around the holidays in Q4,” Ted Rossman, a senior analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note to clients. “With inflation and interest rates likely to remain elevated, there’s a very good chance credit card balances will surge to new highs later in 2024.”
Meanwhile, in a blog post by NY Fed economists, they cautioned that “consumers facing a financial squeeze may be maxing out their credit cards and falling behind on payments” and added that “one observable factor that is strongly correlated with future delinquencies is a high credit card utilization rate.”
“In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, Regional Economic Principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”
As of March, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. That remains still 1.5% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019, but delinquency transition rates increased for all product types, according to the Fed. And also interest rates before covid were about 5% lower.
In a separate post, economists at the St. Louis Fed pointed out that credit card delinquency rates are returning to historically more normal levels after pandemic-related government assistance programs pushed them to unusually low numbers. They added, however, that “present levels of credit card delinquency are greater than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that a trend which began prior to the pandemic has accelerated.”
About 121,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports last quarter, and approximately 4.8% of consumers held some debt in third-party collections. What is remarkable is that those consumers currently in collection have the highest number on record in collection amounts. Which means that once the delinquency train finally leaves the station, and creditors start collecting in earnings, the amount of debt in 3rd party collections will be literally off the chart!
And the clearest hint that we are getting there, is that borrowers using more than 60% of their credit are falling into delinquency at a faster pace than before the pandemic, making up most of the increase in credit card delinquency rates. About a third of balances associated with borrowers using more than 90% of their credit became delinquent in the past year, compared to about 25% before the pandemic.
What is most remarkable here is that despite a so-called end to the student loan repayment moratorium, it appears that not only is nobody repaying their student loans, but that debt issuers aren’t even bothering to make the delinquent debt as such (then again, it is difficult to determine how much of that debt is delinquent as missed federal student loan payments will not be reported to credit bureaus until the fourth quarter).
The data also show a wide range in credit card utilization rates. About one in six credit card users are using at least 90% of their available credit. And an additional 11% are using between 60% and 90% of their available credit.
The Fed researchers found younger borrowers and those with lower incomes are more apt to be financially stressed than older borrowers and those with higher incomes, who may have more credit available. “Millennials were the only group whose delinquencies exceeded their pre-pandemic rate,” New York Fed researchers wrote in a blog post.
The Fed’s report showed 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned to serious delinquency last quarter, up from 4.6% a year ago. And for credit card holders aged 18–29, 9.9% of balances were in serious delinquency.
Auto loan delinquencies are also higher as the average monthly car payment jumped to $738 in 2023. Close to 2.8% of auto loans are now 90 or more days delinquent — that equates to more than 3 million cars. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category following mortgage debt, with $1.62 trillion outstanding.
The biggest household debt holding is for housing. It accounts for more that 70% of the total. That debt is performing well, but homeowners are increasingly tapping their accumulated home equity in the form of a home equity loans, meanwhile new mortgage originations have tumbled near record low levels as a result of the soaring rates…
… which also means that foreclosures are starting to tick up.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the table, some $16 billion in additional home equity loans was originated — the biggest increase since 2008 — and $37 billion was added over the past year. Homeowners have about $580 billion in outstanding home equity credit available, the most in about 15 years.
So what to make of this information, especially when even the Fed is warning that the US consumer is in increasingly weak shape.
Well, credit card debt has increased sharply in recent quarters. When it surpassed $1.0tn for the first time in history in 2Q 2023, alarm bells went off in some circles, although according to Bank of America’s (especially sanguine) economists, the surge in credit card debt is partly just a normalization, after consumers used their fiscal stimulus windfalls to pay down their balances in 2020-21. Moreover, they note that even setting aside the structural drift away from cash, credit card debt should scale up with the nominal economy. As a share of disposable income, total credit card debt in 4Q 2023 was still below its pre-pandemic level.
Instead of the total credit number, BofA urges clients to pay more attention to credit card delinquencies: the total amount of delinquent credit card debt stood at $110bn as of 4Q 2023, up 42%; that number grew even higher in Q1 2024.
To put these numbers in context, BofA offers two approaches: first, why you shouldn’t worry too much
- How much will surging delinquencies weigh on consumer spending? The good news is that credit cards make up only 6.5% of total consumer debt. Despite the recent increase, delinquent credit card debt accounts for only 0.5% of total disposable income.
- Meanwhile, mortgages make up 70% of consumer debt and are by far the biggest swing factor for total delinquencies. A large share of households is locked into low fixed-rate 30-year mortgages. This has kept mortgage delinquencies, and total delinquent debt, very low by historical standards, and made consumer spending more resilient to Fed hikes than in the past. Even when student loan delinquencies finally do normalize, that would not move the needle a great deal assuming mortgage debt remains stable.
And then, here is why you should worry:
- So far so good, but the picture gets a little more concerning at the lower end of the income distribution. Lower-income households are less likely to be homeowners, so they are benefiting less from low fixed mortgage rates. Meanwhile, they are more likely to also be delinquent on their credit cards. From this fact, one can conclude that credit card delinquencies appear to be higher among younger consumers (who would, on average, have lower income.
- Further, delinquencies might understate the issues consumers are facing due to credit card debt. There is likely a large group of consumers who are paying their minimum balances, and so are not delinquent, but are unable to pay the full balance, and so are paying high APRs (annual percentage rates) on the overdue amounts. APRs have risen significantly due to Fed hikes, increasing the strain on such consumers.
More in the full BofA note available to pro subscribers.
end
they are sounding the alarm bell
(epoch times
“We Need To Deal With The Debt” – Goldman CEO Warns Interest Costs On America’s Ballooning Borrowings Means “Issues Down The Road”
TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2024 – 08:20 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Goldman Sachs CEO David M. Solomon is the latest business leader to sound the alarm on the Biden administration’s deficit spending, which comes as the cost of making interest payments on America’s ballooning government debt has exceeded spending in both the critical sectors of defense and Medicare.
“I think the level of debt in the United States [and] the level of spending is something that we need a sharper focus on and more dialogue around than what we’ve seen,” the investment banking chief told Bloomberg Television on Monday, adding that if something isn’t done to rein it the spending, it could create problems.
His remarks come as the cost of servicing America’s ballooning government debt reached $514 billion for the first seven months of the current fiscal year, becoming the second largest line item in the budget, and surpassing both the bills for national defense and Medicare spending.
The latest monthly statement from the U.S. Treasury—released on May 8—shows that the $514 billion spent on net interest so far this fiscal year has surpassed spending on both national defense ($498 billion) and Medicare ($465 billion).
Interest spending—now the fastest growing part of the budget—is currently greater than all the money spent on education ($128 billion), transportation ($70 billion), and veterans ($183 billion) combined.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predicts that, by 2051, spending on interest will be the largest line item in the budget. Currently, only Social Security spending ($837 billion) is greater than what’s being forked over to service the nation’s growing debt.
“Rising debt will continue to put upward pressure on interest rates. Without reforms to reduce the debt and interest, interest costs will keep rising, crowd out spending on other priorities, and burden future generations,” CRFB said in a statement.
It comes as a number of economists, business leaders, and lawmakers have issued warnings about out-of-control deficit spending that adds to the debt load.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in October—the first month of the 2024 fiscal year—that it was already well past time to establish a bipartisan commission to tackle the federal government’s $34.6 trillion debt.
“The consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable,” he said at the time. Despite his calls for such a commission, the project remains stuck in limbo.
Many Democrats and left-leaning groups oppose the commission because they fear it would recommend cuts to Social Security, while some Republicans have expressed reluctance out of concern it would be a backdoor way to raise taxes.
No Longer a Pandemic
In his remarks to Bloomberg Television on Monday, Mr. Solomon said that some of the U.S. government’s massive debt-fueled spending in recent years may have been justified to prevent the economy from crashing during the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he decried the fact that even though the pandemic is no longer a factor, the spending spree continues.
“The spending levels … are continuing at a pace that I think is raising our debt level and creating issues for us down the road,” he warned.
President Joe Biden in March unveiled a sweeping $7.3 trillion budget blueprint, which includes raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent, and forcing those with wealth of $100 million to pay at least 25 percent of their income in taxes.
The blueprint was panned by Mr. Johnson, who said it reflected an “insatiable appetite for reckless spending.”
Deficit spending in the United States hit $1.7 trillion in 2023, or 6.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The agency estimated that deficit spending would grow to 8.5 percent of GDP by 2054.
At the same time, CBO projected that America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which in the 1980s was around 35 percent of GDP, will grow to 166 percent by 2054, while warning that this would pose “significant risks” to America’s fiscal and economic outlook.
Mr. Solomon said that America’s deficit spending is an issue that “deserves a lot of attention.”
“Hopefully, there will be a lot more discussion as we move through the election and into the next administration,” he said, adding that, “we need to deal with the debt and the deficits.”
‘Dollar Will Be Worth Nothing’
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently sounded the alarm on massive government spending, warning that unless steps are taken to slow down the growth of the U.S. national debt, the dollar will become worthless.
“We need to do something about our national debt or the dollar will be worth nothing,” Mr. Musk said in a post on X.
The billionaire tech mogul was reacting to a post about Gen. H.R. McMaster’s warning that the world is on the cusp of World War III while calling for a doubling in defense spending to prepare for potential threats.
Mr. Musk has repeatedly advocated for a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine to put a halt to the loss of life.
Like Mr. Musk, billionaire investor Warren Buffett has also warned about the “important” consequences of deficit spending. However, the Berkshire Hathaway founder predicted that, when push comes to shove, the government would opt to raise taxes rather than reduce spending.
“I think higher taxes are likely,” Mr. Buffett said on May 4 at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha.
“They may decide that some day, they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large because that has some important consequences. So they may not want to decrease spending and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we own, and we’ll pay it,” he said.
Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania estimate that when the debt-to-GDP ratio hits around 200 percent, it will hit the point of no return—when no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could prevent the government from defaulting on its debt.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has predicted that America’s debt-to-GDP ratio would “hockey stick” upward at some point, meaning rise sharply and become unsustainable after a period of relatively gradual increase.
“It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It’s about 10 years out. We’re going 60 miles an hour,” Mr. Dimon said, speaking on a panel at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington at the end of January 2024.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s fiscal stance, warning that its massive deficit spending and ballooning public debt threaten to stoke inflation and—potentially—even spark financial chaos.
END
Record Household Debt, Jump In Delinquencies Signal “Worsening Financial Distress”, Fed Warns
TUESDAY, MAY 14, 2024 – 06:00 PM
While the market remains focused on tomorrow’s CPI print, and to a lesser extent the April retail sales reports due at the same time, which will both be released at 8:30am on May 15. we should to flag another important report that doesn’t typically get a lot of attention: the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report for 1Q 2024 which was just published, and where the latest data on credit card debt and delinquencies has recently been the most important part of the report.
While we already know that in the latest monthly consumer credit report published by the Fed last week and covering the month of March, total consumer debt hit a record high (despite a sharp slowdown in credit card growth) even as the personal savings rate plunged to an all-time low, hardly a ringing endorsement for the strength of the US consumer…
… today’s report provided more granular details which however did not change the conclusion: the US consumer is getting weaker, and while not in a crisis just yet, will get there soon enough.
As the chart from the NY Fed shows, at the end of the first quarter, US household debt reached a record and more borrowers are struggling to keep up: overall US household debt rose to $17.69 trillion, the NYFed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit revealed (link here). That’s an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%, from the fourth quarter.
Consumers have added $3.4 trillion in debt since the pandemic, and that increased debt bears much higher interest rates.
And with both credit card rates and total credit at all time highs, the data corroborate the mounting financial pressures on American families in an age of elevated inflation. The persistent rise in the prices of essentials such as food and rent have strained household budgets, pushing people to borrow against their credit cards to pay for necessities.
Total credit card debt stood at $1.12 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the report (the number diverges from the monthly print reported last week by the NY Fed and which was much higher), but an increasing number of borrowers are behind on credit card payments. While down slightly sequentially according to this data set (if not the NY Fed’s other data set), the number in line with seasonal patterns of consumers paying debt incurred over the holidays. But as Bloomberg notes, credit card balances are up almost 25% from the first quarter of 2020.
“Credit card balances usually rise in the second and third quarters and then they really tend to spike around the holidays in Q4,” Ted Rossman, a senior analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note to clients. “With inflation and interest rates likely to remain elevated, there’s a very good chance credit card balances will surge to new highs later in 2024.”
Meanwhile, in a blog post by NY Fed economists, they cautioned that “consumers facing a financial squeeze may be maxing out their credit cards and falling behind on payments” and added that “one observable factor that is strongly correlated with future delinquencies is a high credit card utilization rate.”
“In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, Regional Economic Principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”
As of March, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. That remains still 1.5% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019, but delinquency transition rates increased for all product types, according to the Fed. And also interest rates before covid were about 5% lower.
In a separate post, economists at the St. Louis Fed pointed out that credit card delinquency rates are returning to historically more normal levels after pandemic-related government assistance programs pushed them to unusually low numbers. They added, however, that “present levels of credit card delinquency are greater than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that a trend which began prior to the pandemic has accelerated.”
About 121,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports last quarter, and approximately 4.8% of consumers held some debt in third-party collections. What is remarkable is that those consumers currently in collection have the highest number on record in collection amounts. Which means that once the delinquency train finally leaves the station, and creditors start collecting in earnings, the amount of debt in 3rd party collections will be literally off the chart!
And the clearest hint that we are getting there, is that borrowers using more than 60% of their credit are falling into delinquency at a faster pace than before the pandemic, making up most of the increase in credit card delinquency rates. About a third of balances associated with borrowers using more than 90% of their credit became delinquent in the past year, compared to about 25% before the pandemic.
What is most remarkable here is that despite a so-called end to the student loan repayment moratorium, it appears that not only is nobody repaying their student loans, but that debt issuers aren’t even bothering to make the delinquent debt as such (then again, it is difficult to determine how much of that debt is delinquent as missed federal student loan payments will not be reported to credit bureaus until the fourth quarter).
The data also show a wide range in credit card utilization rates. About one in six credit card users are using at least 90% of their available credit. And an additional 11% are using between 60% and 90% of their available credit.
The Fed researchers found younger borrowers and those with lower incomes are more apt to be financially stressed than older borrowers and those with higher incomes, who may have more credit available. “Millennials were the only group whose delinquencies exceeded their pre-pandemic rate,” New York Fed researchers wrote in a blog post.
The Fed’s report showed 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned to serious delinquency last quarter, up from 4.6% a year ago. And for credit card holders aged 18–29, 9.9% of balances were in serious delinquency.
Auto loan delinquencies are also higher as the average monthly car payment jumped to $738 in 2023. Close to 2.8% of auto loans are now 90 or more days delinquent — that equates to more than 3 million cars. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category following mortgage debt, with $1.62 trillion outstanding.
The biggest household debt holding is for housing. It accounts for more that 70% of the total. That debt is performing well, but homeowners are increasingly tapping their accumulated home equity in the form of a home equity loans, meanwhile new mortgage originations have tumbled near record low levels as a result of the soaring rates…
… which also means that foreclosures are starting to tick up.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the table, some $16 billion in additional home equity loans was originated — the biggest increase since 2008 — and $37 billion was added over the past year. Homeowners have about $580 billion in outstanding home equity credit available, the most in about 15 years.
So what to make of this information, especially when even the Fed is warning that the US consumer is in increasingly weak shape.
Well, credit card debt has increased sharply in recent quarters. When it surpassed $1.0tn for the first time in history in 2Q 2023, alarm bells went off in some circles, although according to Bank of America’s (especially sanguine) economists, the surge in credit card debt is partly just a normalization, after consumers used their fiscal stimulus windfalls to pay down their balances in 2020-21. Moreover, they note that even setting aside the structural drift away from cash, credit card debt should scale up with the nominal economy. As a share of disposable income, total credit card debt in 4Q 2023 was still below its pre-pandemic level.
Instead of the total credit number, BofA urges clients to pay more attention to credit card delinquencies: the total amount of delinquent credit card debt stood at $110bn as of 4Q 2023, up 42%; that number grew even higher in Q1 2024.
To put these numbers in context, BofA offers two approaches: first, why you shouldn’t worry too much
- How much will surging delinquencies weigh on consumer spending? The good news is that credit cards make up only 6.5% of total consumer debt. Despite the recent increase, delinquent credit card debt accounts for only 0.5% of total disposable income.
- Meanwhile, mortgages make up 70% of consumer debt and are by far the biggest swing factor for total delinquencies. A large share of households is locked into low fixed-rate 30-year mortgages. This has kept mortgage delinquencies, and total delinquent debt, very low by historical standards, and made consumer spending more resilient to Fed hikes than in the past. Even when student loan delinquencies finally do normalize, that would not move the needle a great deal assuming mortgage debt remains stable.
And then, here is why you should worry:
- So far so good, but the picture gets a little more concerning at the lower end of the income distribution. Lower-income households are less likely to be homeowners, so they are benefiting less from low fixed mortgage rates. Meanwhile, they are more likely to also be delinquent on their credit cards. From this fact, one can conclude that credit card delinquencies appear to be higher among younger consumers (who would, on average, have lower income.
- Further, delinquencies might understate the issues consumers are facing due to credit card debt. There is likely a large group of consumers who are paying their minimum balances, and so are not delinquent, but are unable to pay the full balance, and so are paying high APRs (annual percentage rates) on the overdue amounts. APRs have risen significantly due to Fed hikes, increasing the strain on such consumers.
More in the full BofA note available to pro subscribers.
end
AMC close to visiting the morgue
(zerohedge)
First ATM, Now Debt-For-Equity Swap, AMC Drains Equity In Bid To Stay Alive
Volatility in “meme stocks” continued in premarket trading on Wednesday as AMC Entertainment Holdings announced a debt-for-equity exchange for $163.9 million in bonds maturing in 2026. This strategy mirrors management’s approach that helped the struggling movie theater chain capitalize on retail day traders to boost liquidity in 2021.
A regulatory filing released Wednesday morning detailed how AMC reached a deal to swap about $164 million of its 10% notes due 2026 for 23.3 million shares of newly issued stock. The new stock is valued at $7.33 per share.
“AMC, much of whose debt trades at distressed prices, has been chipping away at its maturities through other swaps and buybacks. It exchanged around $200 million of the debt for shares last year,” Bloomberg pointed out.
Today’s news sparked a rally in AMC’s high-yield bonds. The company has over $2.5 billion in outstanding bonds, most of which will mature in 2026.
News of the added supply sent shares down nearly 9% in premarket trading to the low $6 handle.
Shares were as high as $11.48 early Tuesday in the multi-day meme stock mania, triggered by a post on X from Roaring Kitty, also known as Keith Gill, on Sunday night.
Also, on Tuesday, AMC completed a previously disclosed ATM. The deal was completed through Citigroup Global Markets, Barclays Capital, B. Riley Securities, and Goldman Sachs & Co., raising about $250 million in new capital for the struggling company.
The old saying goes, “Strike while the iron is hot.” That’s precisely what AMC’s management is doing: taking advantage of retail day traders by completing ATM and debt-for-equity exchanges. Somehow, this company, which should’ve been dead a long time ago, continues to stay alive with help from Roaring Kitty, squeezing bearish hedge funds by igniting upside momentum through retail day traders.
We asked this question yesterday: Who’s Next For The ‘Roaring Kitty’ Treatment?
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
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KING REPORT
| The King Report May 14, 2024 Issue 7242 | Independent View of the News |
| BOJ Cuts Bond Buying in Regular Operation as Yen Stays Weak The Bank of Japan offered to purchase a smaller amount of government bonds in a regular operation on Monday than it did on April 24 as it seeks to reduce its presence in the country’s debt market… The central bank said it would buy ¥425 billion ($2.7 billion) of 5-to-10 year debt, compared with the ¥475.5 billion it bought in the operation last month… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-trims-bond-buying-regular-012908217.html @economics: Fed… Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said communication from officials with diverging views can lead to confusion about the course of policy among the public (A Fed leftist tells hawks to STFU!) GameStop Shares Soar 53% (+135.97% at peak) for Biggest Gain since Mache 2021 – BBG 9:32 ET GameStop soars after flag bearer ‘Roaring Kitty’ resurfaces Shares of videogame retailer GameStop jumped 50% on Monday after “Roaring Kitty”, a former marketer at an insurance firm credited with sparking the 2021 meme stock rally, returned to X.com after a three-year hiatus from social media… https://www.reuters.com/technology/gamestop-jumps-after-roaring-kitty-returns-following-three-year-hiatus-2024-05-13/ @Convertbond: Jay Powell, you are being played again… Yes, Virginia, the US stock market is that stupid! But in all fairness to meme traders, what’s the difference between some big broker with a tepid record touting a stock or the Kitty? PS – Thank you, Jerome Powell, for unleashing this egregious moral hazard! Yo, Jerome, you still want to make the risible case that financial conditions are tight? NY Fed: Consumers Expect Higher Short-Term Inflation and Home Price Growth (3.3% from 3%) Median inflation expectations increased to 3.3% from 3.0% at the one-year horizon… Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in April, increasing by 0.3 percentage point for gas to 4.8%, 0.2 percent point for food to 5.3%, 0.6 percent point for the cost of medical care to 8.7%, 2.5 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.0% and 0.4 percentage point for rent to 9.1%… https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240513 Cleveland Fed: CEO Inflation Expectations increased in 2024 Q2 9:50 ET CEOs and other top executives reported in April (2024:Q2) that they expect inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to be 3.8 percent over the next 12 months, up from 3.4 percent in January (2024:Q1)… https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/press-releases/pr-20240513-cleveland-fed-survey Jerome, how can you and yours keep gaslighting about “inflation expectations remain well anchored?” Also Jerome, these days most everyone knows that CPI greatly understates inflation! @Convertbond: Just 9-Months Ago — Remember the inflation gaslighters, lecturing us on how rents were going to take CPI inflation down in Q1 / Q2 2024??? https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1789905159214031021 @elerianm: From the @WSJ on US inflation. The challenge remains the decisive lowering of services and #housing inflation while maintaining well-behaved goods price behavior. The complication is that services inflation has traditionally been less sensitive to interest rate measures and, unusually this time around, housing inflation as well. https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1789910266362175711 ESMs traded moderately lower in early Nikkei trading but plodded higher until an upward surge appeared at 23:15 ET. ESMs got into positive territory at the time and then traded sideways for 90 minutes. After the 2 ET Nikkei close, ESMs moseyed higher until 2:38 ET. After a 4-handle easing, ESMs hit bottom near 5 ET. Then, the craziness commenced; ESMs eventually hit a daily high of 5264.00 (+18.75) at 9:13 ET. Then, the Cleveland Fed CEO Inflation Survey appeared. ESMs commenced a decline, punctuated with two modest rallies and one moderate rally, that took ESMs to a daily low of 5233.25 at 13:08 ET. The NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations appeared near 11:00 ET. The usual suspects then bought aggressively for the afternoon rebound. ESMs hit a peak of 5247.50 at 15:18 ET and then rolled over and traded sideways into the close. @Stocktwits: Top Gainers: 1. AMC +84.53% 2. CCLD +84.13% 3. GME +72.39% 4. VFS +53.65% 5. NVAX +47.15% 6. ACIU +41.13% 7. TUP +38.37% 8. CHRO +34.97% 9. MGNX +33.23% 10. KOSS +33.22% Positive aspects of previous session Though stocks rallied early, there is nothing positive about some blocker driving stocks higher on nothing Bonds rallied modestly, were +8/32 at NYSE close Negative aspects of previous session Another instance of abject equity stupidity appeared Despite Powell’s incessant gaslightling, financial conditions are too loose and there is too much liquidity Ambiguous aspects of previous session Gold tumbled on the Cleveland and NY Feds’ inflation surveys – but will they impact the Fed? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5223.28 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5237.26; 5211.16 UN revises Gaza death toll, almost 50% less women and children killed than previously reported President Biden echoed Hamas’ health ministry death toll data in his State of the Union speech https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-revises-gaza-death-toll-50-less-women-children-killed-previously-reported Red Lobster abruptly closes dozens of locations across US – The Red Lobster closures come as bankruptcy rumors circled the seafood restaurant chain in recent weeks. https://www.10tv.com/article/news/nation-world/red-lobster-closures-full-list-amid-bankruptcy-rumors/507-7ae7cc63-92c5-489d-9fac-5ea766ece4a3 Janet Yellen’s New Too-Big-To-Fail Firms – WSJ Treasury says non-bank mortgage servicers are systemically important. Biden Administration regulators on Friday teed up mortgage companies for designation as systemically important institutions like giant banks…. According to FSOC, non-banks originate two-thirds of mortgages and service 54% of balances, up from 39% and 4% respectively in 2008. After the financial panic, the report says “banks pulled back from mortgage origination and servicing in part due to heightened regulation and sensitivity to the cost and uncertainty associated with delinquent mortgages.”… https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellens-new-too-big-to-fail-firms-mortgage-housing-market-43c47f35 Today – US equity indices closed mixed on Monday, despite the meme stock stupidity and the penchant for stocks to rally on Monday. This implies that stocks are very tired and need to retrench. With the April CPI looming tomorrow, saner traders will try to be as flat as possible into the CPI release. @TradingThomas3: SPY 35.8M shares traded today, lowest non holiday trading day since November 11,2021. Unless volume increases significantly, stocks will stumble in coming sessions. NQMs are -2.00; ESMs are -17.50; USMs are -5/32; and Gold is -1.30 at 20:52 ET. The 20-year JGB hit 1.755%, the highest yield since 2013. Expected economic data: Apr PPI 0.3% m/m & 2.2% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 2.3% y/y Fed Speakers: Gov. Cook 9:10 ET, Powell and ECB Gov. Knot at 10:00 ET in The Netherlands S&P Index 50-day MA: 5143; 100-day MA: 5015; 150-day MA: 4823; 200-day MA: 4723 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,756; 100-day MA: 38,444; 150-day MA: 37,193, 200-day MA: 36,524 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5221.42) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4619.92 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5263.90 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5117.89 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5204.90 triggers a sell signal Illegal migrants are being ‘encouraged’ to vote, top Republican warns after shocking documents reveals ‘training’ for noncitizens to cast ballots in Washington D.C. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13413623/elections-illegal-migrants-washington-dc-chip-roy.html Actor @RealJamesWoods: The astonishing crowds supporting President Trump could never be matched by the current occupant in the Oval Office. Yet that fraud, Joseph Biden, is once again not bothering to campaign. He’s even promised to raise taxes on the middle class, without the slightest worry. Feeling confident behind the millions of illegals he’s imported, plus the proven grift of mail-in ballot harvesting, Joseph Biden knows this upcoming “election” is a slam dunk. He has even promised to import Palestinian “refugees,” if nothing more than just as a gleeful slap in the face to American citizens and our most trusted ally in the Middle East, Israel. His puppet masters will once again cheat, and lie, and engage in crooked lawfare without the slightest regard to the constitution, the laws of the land, or the will of the people. It worked in 2020, and they are going to keep on doing it. Until we don’t tolerate it any more. @JonathanTurley… Now, the mob has come for liberal professors and writers who remained silent for years as conservatives and others were targeted on campus. Suddenly, there is alarm from the Times editors, who blamed cancel culture for the recent demonstrations and disruptions on campus. The New York Times Denounces Cancel Culture . . . After Fueling Cancel Culture for Years Until good liberals were targeted on campus, cancel culture was treated as free speech. It did not matter that preventing others from speaking or being heard is the very antithesis of free speech… the New York Times published a column by an academic who had previously declared that there is nothing wrong with murdering conservatives and Republicans. Later, former editors came forward to denounce the cancel culture at the Times and the censorship of opposing views… At the same time, the Times has embraced “advocacy journalism.”… Now, however, liberal professors and writers are being targeted. After years of turning a blind eye to conservative and libertarian figures being purged from faculties or canceled in events, the Times is alarmed… What is most striking is how the editors chastise administrators for lacking the courage that they have not shown for years in standing up to their cultural warriors:… https://jonathanturley.org/2024/05/12/the-new-york-times-denounces-cancel-culture-after-fueling-cancel-culture-for-years/ Axios: Psaki’s new book falsely recounts Biden’s watch check in troop ceremony Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki claims in her new book that President Biden never looked at his watch during the ceremony for soldiers killed during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 — contradicting news photos and firsthand accounts of Gold Star families… Psaki’s book is the latest instance of current and former Biden administration officials downplaying or misrepresenting controversial episodes from the Afghanistan withdrawal ahead of the 2024 election. The Associated Press photographer on the tarmac snapped two photos of Biden looking at his watch twice and 10 minutes apart, as fact-checkers at USA Today and Snopes noted soon afterward… https://www.axios.com/2024/05/13/psaki-book-biden-watch-check-afghanistan Gold Star Families Blast Jen Psaki’s Lies: ‘Her Useless A** Wasn’t Even There’ https://townhall.com/tipsheet/matthew-foldi/2024/05/13/gold-star-families-blast-jen-psakis-lies-in-her-book-her-useless-a-wasnt-even-there-n2639005 Is the End Near? Victor Davis Hanson Ponders Threat of Annihilation I tried to look at a pattern—if there was a pattern. In all these cases, these societies did not realize they were in decline… I’ve counted about 16 statements in the press that Russian generals, Russian media, or Russian government officials have said if the war were to continue, they would use nuclear weapons. In the case of China, they have threatened to wipe out Taiwan and destroy the bastard idea of a Taiwanese civilization; they say it doesn’t exist. And they’ve threatened to nuke, as well, Japan if it aids Taiwan… I don’t think the average American understands that the Chinese are producing four ships per year to our one ship. Or that if you took any of our $15 billion carriers and you put them in the straits between Taiwan and China, they wouldn’t last more than an hour given the Chinese have developed missile batteries where they could launch 5,000 or 6,000 small missiles that would go about 6 inches above the water and hit the waterline at night. And you couldn’t stop that. They are building nuclear weapons at a phenomenal rate. They’re working on anti-missile defense. They’re back up to probably 250,000 students in the United States; if 1 percent are engaged in espionage—and the FBI says it’s more than that—you’ve got thousands of people who are appropriating technology. I don’t think anybody understands that it’s going to take us six years to replenish Javelin stocks and maybe we can’t. North Korea is producing more 155-mm shells than we are. At least they sent 2 million of them to the Russians… We’re 40,000 recruits short now in the military—never happened before… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/end-near-victor-davis-hanson-ponders-threat-annihilation?s=02 @VDHanson: Has America Finally Had It with Joe Biden? Joe Biden’s personal approval rating is at historic lows; almost all his policies do not poll fifty percent. He is behind Trump in almost all the swing states. And now he lies serially even to sympathetic interviewers. In short, finally Biden has been exposed for what he always was and represented. Senator and Vice President Joe Biden was always sort of a buffoon. He is by nature a grandstander who handsomely profited from his office while posing as good ole Joe from Scranton… He is a fabulist who believes that the more animated he misleads and slurs (“semi-fascists” “fat”, “lying dog-faced pony soldier”, “chumps”, “dregs of society”, etc), the more likely he is to get away with it. He is a confessed plagiarist… And he is a racist with a repertory of racial taunts and smears unrivaled among modern politicians… Biden has always put the agendas of his own and his family above the national interest… Any other major politician who habitually invaded the private space of women and preteens to blow on their hair, gobble their necks, squeeze and hug far too long, and be accused of sexual assault would have long since been cancelled by the left… at the heart of this Biden catastrophe is the Faustian bargain of 2020 when unelectable leftist candidates dropped out in unison to use a fumbling Biden as their more presentable veneer… his duties were ceremonial—as the hard-left channeled through him the most radical agenda in U.S. history, and found his debility and dementia advantageous—the country be damned… https://twitter.com/VDHanson/status/1790156802296090684 | |
GREG HUNTER
harveyorganblog.com 
