MAY 16/BLOG//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $7.90 TO $2381.00/SILVER CLOSED UP 14 CENTS TO $23.65//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $0.70/WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $18.85 TO $991.25//
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 19 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 11 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 8 726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 1
TOTAL: 20 20 MONTH TO DATE: 1,956
JPMorgan stopped 0/20
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 20 NOTICES FOR 2000 OZ or 0.0622 TONNES
total notices so far: 1956 contracts for 195600 Oz (6.0835 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 18 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 90,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5759 for 28.795 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.36TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.36 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER UP $0.14 AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY REMAIN CONSTANT AT 420.308 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 420.308 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 4038 CONTRACTS TO 175,409 AND CONTINUING TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.01 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED 1115 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1115 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.01 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD AN ULTRA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 9393 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.01. THIS IS THE HIGHEST GAIN IN OUR 2 CONTRACTS IN MANY YEARS
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 5365 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 135,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 29.750 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1115 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 1327 214CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAYS, total 12,974 contracts: OR 64.870 MILLION OZ (1081 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 64.870 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 64.870 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4038 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 5355 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 29.345 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 29.750 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 9393 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1115 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1115 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 18 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 90,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9323 OI CONTRACTS TO 532,275 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 2058 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (9323 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN $34.90 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE. THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER (T.A.S) LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 1800 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 6.112 TONNES
NEW STANDING 6.112 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $34.90 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9972 OI CONTRACTS (31.04 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 649 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 532,275
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9972 CONTRACTS WITH 9323 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 649 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9972 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 7911 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (649 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI 9323/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9972 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 1800 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /MAY 6.112 TONNES.
/ 3) MASSIVE LONG-SHORT LIQUIDATION MOSTLY DUE TO SPREADERS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 7199 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL FRUITLESS RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 46,792 CONTRACTS OR 4,679,200 OZ OR 145.54 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3899 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 145.54 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 145.54 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.08% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 145.54 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4038 CONTRACTS OI TO 175,409 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 5355 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 5355 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5355 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5365 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 5355 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN AN ULTRA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9972 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 46.97 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.50 PTS OR 0.08% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 302.82 PTS OR 1.09%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 534.53 OR 1.39%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.51%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2170 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2179/ Oil DOWN TO 78,32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82.60 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9323 CONTRACTS TO 532,275 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $34.90 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 649 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE649 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:649 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9972 CONTRACTS IN THAT 649 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9323 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $34.90 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE SIZED 7199 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (6.112 TONNES) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 6.112 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $34.90 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7914 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS AND MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY TRADING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 31.02 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 18 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ ( .0599 TONNES)
NEW STANDING: 6.112 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $34.90
WE HAVE ADDED 2058 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9972 CONTRACTS OR 997,200 (31.02 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 284,298 contracts// fair to good
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1956 notices 195600 oz 6.0835 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
we have 0 customer deposits:
total deposit nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL 0z
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 45 contracts having GAINED 16 contracts.
We had 2 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 18 contracts or 1800 oz (0.0559 Tonnes).
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 2523 CONTRACTS UP TO 254,070 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 51 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 268
We had 20 contracts filed for today representing 2000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1956) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY ( 45 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz per contract( equals 196,500 OZ OR 6.112TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1956x 100 oz + (45 OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (20 x 100 oz which equals 196500 oz (6.112 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 6.112 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,459,628.558 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,328,073,702 ( 227.93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,131,554.628.178 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,761,749 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 177.28 tonnes
179.36 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 16
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
588,508.700 oz
JPMORGAN
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
567,140.920 OZ JPMORGAN
No of oz served today (contracts)
18 CONTRACT(S) (90,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
191 contracts (0.955 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5759 Contracts (28.795 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
(i) into jpmorgan 567,140.920 oz
total customer deposit 567,140.920 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,598million oz/297.817 million or 43.48%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) out of jpmorgan 588,508.750 oz
total withdrawal 588,508.750 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 65.149MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.817 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 209 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 8 CONTRACT(S).
.
We had 11 notices served on WEDSDAY so we GAINED 19 contracts or 95,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 11 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 1403
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 3773 CONTRACTS UP TO 142,579
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 18 for 90,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 125,473 mammoth
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5759 x 5,000 oz = 28.795 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (209 and the number of notices served upon today 18x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 5759 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (209 number of notices served upon today minus (18x 5000 oz of silver standing for the may contract month equates to 29.750 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 29.750 million oz.
There are 65.149 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
GLD INVENTORY: 833.36 TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 16 WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 420.308 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/Alasdair Macleod//JAMES RICKARDS
I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast.
My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.
I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.
Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…
This analysis begins with a simple question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard?
No central banker in the world wants a gold standard. Why would they? Right now, they control the machinery of global currencies (also called fiat money).
They have no interest in a form of money they can’t control. It took about 60 years from 1914–1974 to drive gold out of the monetary system. No central banker wants to let it back in.
Still, what if they have no choice? What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, competition from Bitcoin, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster?
In that case, central bankers may return to gold not because they want to, but because they must in order to restore order to the global monetary system.
What’s the Proper Gold Price?
That scenario begs the question: What is the new dollar price of gold in a system in which dollars are freely exchangeable for gold at a fixed price?
If the dollar price is too high, investors will sell gold for dollars and spend freely. Central banks will have to increase the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That’s an inflationary result.
If the dollar price is too low, investors will line up to redeem dollars for gold and then hoard the gold. Central banks will have to reduce the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That reduces velocity and is deflationary.
Something like the latter case happened in the U.K. in 1925 when it returned to a gold standard at an unrealistically low price. The result was that the U.K. entered the Great Depression several years ahead of other developed economies.
Something like the former case happened in the U.S. in 1933, when FDR devalued the dollar against gold. Citizens weren’t allowed to own gold, so there was no mass redemption of gold. But other commodity prices rose sharply.
That was the point of the devaluation. Resulting inflation helped lift the U.S. out of deflation and gave the economy a boost from 1933–1936 in the midst of the Great Depression. (The Fed caused another severe recession in 1937–1938 with their customary incompetence.)
The policy goal obviously is to get the price “just right” by maintaining the proper equilibrium between gold and dollars. The U.S. is in an ideal position to do this by selling gold from U.S. Treasury reserves, about 8,100 metric tonnes (261.5 million troy ounces), or buying gold in the open market using freshly printed Fed money.
The goal would be to maintain the dollar price of gold in a narrow range around the fixed price.
What price is just right? This question is easy to answer, subject to a few assumptions.
$27,533 Gold
U.S. M1 money supply is $17.9 trillion. (I use M1, which is a good proxy for everyday money).
What is M1? This is the supply that is the most liquid and money that is the easiest to turn into cash.
It contains actual cash (bills and coins), bank reserves (what’s actually kept in the vaults) and demand deposits (money in your checking account that can be turned into cash easily).
One needs to make an assumption about the percentage of gold backing for the money supply needed to maintain confidence. I assume 40% coverage with gold. (This was the legal requirement for the Fed from 1913–1946. Later it was 25%, then zero today).
Applying the 40% ratio to the $17.9 trillion money supply means that $7.2 trillion of gold is required.
Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce.
That’s the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold in a new global gold standard. Of course, money supplies fluctuate; lately they’ve been going up sharply, especially in the U.S.
There’s room for debate about whether a 40% backing ratio is too high or too low. Still, my assumptions are moderate based on monetary economics and history. A dollar price of gold of over $25,000 per ounce in a new gold standard is not a stretch.
Obviously, you get around $12,500 per ounce if you assume 20% coverage. There are many variables in play.
The Fundamental Model
This model is also straightforward. It relies on factors we learned about in our first week of Intro to Economics — supply and demand.
The most significant development on the supply side is the decrease of new mining output. As the chart shows below, mine production of gold in the U.S. has been decreasing steadily since 2017.
These figures reveal a 28% decrease over seven years, at the same time gold prices were rising and miners were motivated to expand output.
That’s not to argue that the world has reached “peak gold,” (output could expand in future for a variety of reasons). Still, my contacts in the mining community consistently report that gold is becoming more difficult to source and the quality of newly discovered ore is low-to-medium at best.
Flat output, all things equal, tends to put a floor under prices and to support higher prices based on other factors.
The Demand Side
The demand side is driven largely by central banks, ETFs, hedge funds and individual purchases. Traditional institutional investors are not large investors in gold. Much of the demand from hedge funds is conducted in derivatives such as gold futures.
Derivatives generally don’t involve physical delivery of gold. They involve “paper gold” that far exceeds the actual, physical gold supply. It’s this paper gold market that accounts for volatility in the gold market, not gold itself.
Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has surged from less than 100 metric tonnes in 2010 to 1,100 metric tonnes in 2022, a 1,000% increase in 12 years. Central bank gold demand remained strong in 2023 with 800 metric tonnes acquired through Sept. 30.
That puts central bank gold demand on track for a new record. There’s no sign of that demand slowing in 2024.
Overall, the picture is one of flat supply and increasing demand, mostly in the form of official purchases by central banks.
A Math Lesson
Finally, a bit of elementary math is helpful in understanding how the dollar price of gold can move past $25,000 per ounce in the next two years. For this purpose, we’ll assume a baseline price of $2,000 per ounce (although gold has been in the $2,300 range lately with no signs of falling back to the $2,000 level).
But for our purposes, we’ll keep it simple.
A move from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. That’s a 50% increase and could easily take a year or more. Beyond that, a further increase from $3,000 to $4,000 is a 33% increase: another large rally. A further gain from $4,000 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a further gain of 25%.
But notice the pattern. Each gain is $1,000 per ounce, but the percentage increase drops from 50% to 33% to 25%. That’s because the starting point is higher while the $1,000 gain is constant. Each $1,000 jump represents a smaller (and easier) percentage gain than the one before.
This pattern continues. Moving from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. Moving from $14,000 per ounce to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% gain. Gold can move 1% in a single trading day, sometimes 2% or more.
As an extreme example, a move from $99,000 per ounce to $100,000 per ounce is about a 1% move. Those $1,000 pops get even easier as we approach my calculated gold price of $27,533.
The lesson for you as an investor is to buy gold now.
As prices continue to rally, you’ll get more gold for your money at the outset and high-percentage returns as gold rallies from a lower base. Toward the end of the long march past $25,000 per ounce, you’ll have bigger dollar gains because you started with more gold.
Others will jump on the bandwagon, but you’ll already have a comfortable seat.
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS /LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT//COPPER
Goldbugs Waited Years For A Massive Comex Short Squeeze, And Finally Got It… Just In The Wrong Metal
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 02:45 PM
For much of the past decade, gold bugs religiously tracked the physical gold inventory located in the various gold vaults that make up the Comex system, eagerly awaiting the day when there would be more deliverables (via paper shorting of gold) than physical in storage, sparking a historic short squeeze. Well, the day of a historic Comex short squeeze finally arrived… only it wasn’t in gold but in the far less precious metal that is copper.
It all started one month ago, when we reported that in an attempt to enforce sanctions against Russia that actually worked (as opposed to the joke that is the western “oil embargo” now openly breached by absolutely everyone), the “US, UK Banned Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges.” There, in our conclusion, we wrote that “history has taught us that the market will price in some “full-sanction” risk premium which when combined with the current macro bid (reflation narrative, electrification, “copper is the first AI commodity” etc.) means we expect a complex wide rally.” Little did we know how truly historic said rally would be just one month later.
As anyone who has been following the recent moves in the price of copper – which is hitting daily record highs – knows by now, a massive dislocation between the prices for copper traded in New York and other commodity exchanges has rocked the global market for the metal and prompted a frantic dash for supplies to ship to the US.
The source of the disruption, as Bloomberg reports, is a record short squeeze that has driven up copper prices on the Comex exchange to the point where the premium for New York copper futures above the London Metal Exchange price has rocketed to an unprecedented level of over $1,200 per ton, compared with a typical differential of just a few dollars.
The blowout in that price spread has wrong-footed major players from Chinese traders to quant hedge funds, all of whom are now scrambling for metal that they can deliver against expiring futures contracts!
Adding fuel to the fire, the surge in the price is not just driven by technicals but also reflects the surge of interest from speculators after forecasts that long-term copper mine production will struggle to keep pace with demand. We have discussed the fundamental case for copper in “The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here“, and most notably in “the Next AI Trade” where we said that copper is starting to show signs of what Goldman has called “AI exposure” considering it is an essential material to produce power, and added that Goldman recently has gone full-bore pushing for copper (see the following note from Goldman S&T “Turning Copper into Gold” available to professional subs).
While less important than the LME, Comex, which is part of the CME Group, is a key playground for investors, some of whom have used the exchange to build up large bullish bets on copper in recent months
“The broader story is that there are new investment funds that are boosting their exposure to copper for a multitude of reasons, and while that’s a global trend, a huge amount of that investment has been heading to Comex,” said Matthew Heap, a portfolio manager at Orion Resource Partners, the largest metals-focused fund manager.
As shown in the charts above, while copper prices had been rising for months, this week’s spike was specific to the Comex and the most-active futures contract for July delivery. By Wednesday, the July price had soared as much as 10%, touching a record high for that contract, even as the global benchmark contract on the LME traded broadly flat. The move, Bloomberg reports citing numerous traders and brokers, was a classic short squeeze as market participants who had placed bets on the Comex contract moving back into line with prices on the LME and in Shanghai, the other global copper benchmark, were forced to buy those positions back as prices rose, creating a vicious cycle and sending the price to a record.
Indeed, as Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said the spread of more than $1,000 a ton between Comex and London was “something never seen previously,” adding that “there has been a squeeze on short positions into contract expiry, exacerbating the move.”
In yet another example of hedge funds and other traders being too smart for their own good (i.e. a replay of the original GameStop short squeeze), they had taken the other side of the bullish trades on Comex, betting on narrowing differentials between the contracts in New York, London and Shanghai, or between New York contracts for different delivery dates, often with massive leverage. With prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange relatively depressed, some Chinese physical market participants had also sold on the LME and Comex, with plans to export.
Putting this all together, and on Wednesday morning, the July Comex copper contract soared to a record $5.128 a pound ($11,305 a ton), also trading at a record premium above the September Comex contract — a monster backwardation that is hallmark of a short squeeze.
While the spike was driven by short covering rather than any overall physical shortage, traders and brokers say, but it has shined a light on relatively tight supplies in the US copper market, just as we warned a month ago in “The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here. Case in point, inventories tracked by the Comex currently total 21,066 short tons, while LME inventories in the US are just 9,250 tons. For comparison, annual US copper demand is almost 2 million tons. Traders say solid demand, and shipping issues at the Panama and Suez canals, have left the market tight. Indeed, US copper imports year-to-date are down 15%, according to consultancy CRU Group.
“We continuously monitor our markets, which are operating as designed as market participants manage copper risk and uncertainty,” the CME said in a statement.
Of course, as our readers know too well, short squeezes are nothing new in commodity markets, and they often prompt a mad scramble to find supplies of raw materials that underpin paper contracts. The most recent and vivid example is the Nickel short squeeze of March 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a huge shortage in the market, and a staggering surge in the price which nearly bankrupted one of China’s biggest commodity traders and the LME itself.
A similar squeeze took place in 2020, when Covid locked down much of the world, and gold traders raced to ship metal to address a similar dislocation between New York and London bullion prices. And in 1988, a short squeeze in aluminum led some traders to load the metal into jumbo jets — a highly unusual and costly mode of transport for industrial raw materials — in order to get it on to the LME as soon as possible.
The current Comex copper squeeze has triggered a similar dash to send copper to the US: Chinese traders have spent the past 24 hours calling around shipping companies to try to secure transit to the US, according to people familiar with the matter.
Traders and miners in South America have also raced to boost their US shipments. According to Bloomberg, Chilean copper-mining giant Codelco is directing all of its available volumes to the market and also negotiating with customers to postpone some sales so that it can maximize deliveries.
That said, there are tentative signs that the squeeze is easing: the July copper contract edged lower on Thursday morning after coming off its highs from Wednesday, while the premium over cash copper on the LME narrowed to $573 a ton — although still a historically elevated level.
There may be further relief ahead, as investors with bullish positions via commodity indexes are set to start rolling their copper positions in early June, providing an opportunity for traders with short positions to defer delivery, potentially easing the backwardation. Still, it remains unclear if that will be enough to resolve the squeeze ahead of the expiry of the July contract, which goes into delivery at the start of that month. And any attempts to provide further metal to the US to ease the squeeze may face challenges: Chinese traders seeking to transport metal to the US have found that shipping schedules are fully booked, with the earliest available shipping slots from Shanghai to New Orleans at the beginning of July, said Gong Ming, analyst with Jinrui Futures Co.
Adding to the plight of those caught out by the squeeze is the fact that much of the copper inventories outside the US is from brands that aren’t deliverable against Comex futures. For example, more than 80% of the 94,700 tons of copper on the LME at the end of April was produced in Russia, China, Bulgaria or India — countries whose copper isn’t deliverable on Comex as we reported a month ago, in a development that has eventually cascaded into today’s historic squeeze.
And while substantial inventories have built up in China in recent months, traders estimate that only about 15,000 to 20,000 tons of that could be delivered against Comex futures.
“We do not think the physical arbitrage activity will be sufficient by the July expiry to close the arb on the near month. There is not enough material and not enough time,” said Anant Jatia, chief investment officer at Greenland Investment Management, a hedge fund specializing in commodity arbitrage trading.
“However, physical traders are currently heavily incentivized to move copper into the US and over time the arb market will stabilize.”
As for gold bugs, watching with sheer shock – and outright jealousy – the epic squeeze roiling the less precious metal, all they can hope for is that one day the massive paper shorts on the comex will lead to a similar meltup in gold. All that may be needed is a pair of enterprising Hunt Brothers for the new millennium to pull it off.
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.50 PTS OR 0.08% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 302.82 PTS OR 1.09%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 534.53 OR 1.39%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.51%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2170 CHINESE YUAN OFF SHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2179/ Oil DOWN TO 78,32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 82.60 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2170
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2179
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.50 PTS OR 0.08 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 302.82 PTS OR 1.59%
2. Nikkei closed UP 534.53 PTS OR 1.38 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.18 EURO FALLS TO 1.0872 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.918 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.47 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4295/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.725 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.186%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.431
3j Gold at $2376.00//Silver at: 29.49 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 33 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.95
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.97/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.918% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9024 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9812well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.336 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.489 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.745 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.22…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.110 DOWN 3 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat At All Time High As Markets Mull Next Move
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 07:47 AM
US index futures are flat after notching new record highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, spurred on by a miss in the US CPI print and retail sales data on Wednesday, which also boosted bets the Federal Reserve will ease policy. That inflation data, which the market was feverishly anticipating, was inadvertently published 30 minutes early the BLS reported, raising fresh questions about how some of the world’s most sensitive economic information is released. As of 7:30am, S&P and Nasdaq futs are up 0.1% with small caps underperforming, potentially on growth fears, so it will be interesting if this morning’s stronger than expected WMT earnings can ease those fears. With the main data point of the week now past, investors will turn to Fed speakers and jobless claims data for new clues on the path of interest rates. Bond yields are moving +/-1 bp as the curve twists flatter. The US dollar looks to rally for the first time this week. Commodities are higher led by base metals with copper soaring for another day because of a short squeeze on the Comex exchange. The macro data focus is on Housing Starts/Building Permits, Import/Export Prices, and Industrial Production. NVDA reports next week so may see investors begin positioning for that.
In pre-market trading, Mag7 and Semis are higher while the meme-stock craze continued to fizzle out, with GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. plunging more than 10% in the pre-market. Chubb shares jumped after Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a $6.7 billion stake in the insurer. Cisco Systems Inc. gained on a higher revenue forecast. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
AST Spacemobile shares soar 36%, putting them on track for the biggest jump since March 2022, after AT&T said had it moved from a memorandum of understanding to signing a “definitive commercial agreement” with the company for a space-based broadband network.
Chubb shares jump 9.5%, putting the stock on track for its sharpest gain since November 2008, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a $6.7 billion stake in the insurer.
Cisco Systems shares rise 4.5% after the communications equipment company raised its full-year revenue forecast, indicating that businesses are starting to spend on their computer networks again.
Coupang shares gain 3.2% after UBS raised its recommendation on the stock to buy.
GameStop and AMC shares fall, putting the stocks on track for a second consecutive session of losses, as the latest meme-stock rally fizzles. GameStop -16%, AMC Entertainment (AMC US) -12%
Grab Holdings shares gain 3.3% after the ride-hailing and food delivery company reported first-quarter revenue came ahead of estimates. Additionally, the company boosted its Ebitda guidance for the year.
ZTO Express ADRs jump 11% after the Chinese delivery company reported estimate-beating earnings. The firm said it’s shoring up profitability by keeping loss-making parcels outside of its network, as price competition heats up.
On the data front, stock-market bulls will be hoping for jobless claims to give an indication of slack in the labor market that would give the Fed room to ease monetary policy. A raft of central bank officials are due to speak today as well. Investors currently expect about two rate cuts this year, according to futures markets.
“Slowdowns are not bearish equities, recessions are. I think on the body of evidence we are still miles from that. Although another rise in claims /confirmatory data from Philly Fed like we saw in Empire would keep inching us toward GDP downgrades” wrote Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky. “Now we’ll trade slowdown and the SPX is taking out the highs. The mix of leadership will change and I think the NDX (secular growth proxy) which has actually lagged most things ytd has a good chance to run particularly into the end of the month”
In Europe, the Estoxx 50 trades lower by 0.2%, threatening to end a streak of ten straight day of gains as insurance and real estate stocks outperform while energy and energy and autos lag behind. Local bourses were dragged down by energy names while German industrials continue to grapple with weak demand from China. Siemens AG dropped on lowered guidance for its key digital industries unit. Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforms peers while CAC 40 lags after reaching a fresh record. Traders were also watching direction from European Central Bank speakers on whether interest rates might start falling next month. So far, swap contracts have almost fully priced in the likelihood of three cuts in 2024. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
WOSG jumps as much as 19% after the watch retailer’s sales grew faster than expected in the final quarter of its financial year and guidance for the year ahead impressed, according to analysts. The stock is on course for its biggest gain in more than six months.
BT shares surge as much as 11% after the telecom operator unexpectedly boosted its dividend, citing an improved outlook for cash flow.
NIBE gains as much as 7.7% with the Swedish heat-pump maker guiding for improving demand in the second half, largely offsetting a weaker-than-expected 1Q report, which was weighted down by the firm’s key Climate Solutions division.
Roche shares rise as much as 4.8%, the most since Aug. 23, after the Swiss pharma company reported positive early-stage results for its experimental drug to treat obesity and type-2 diabetes.
Snam shares rise as much as 3.1%, the most in six months, after the Italian natural gas distributor delivered a strong set of results and lifted its annual earnings guidance, which analysts at Citi say will push up consensus estimates.
Sage shares slumped as much as 20%, their biggest drop since 1993, after the accounting software provider’s earnings undershot expectations.
Ubisoft shares fall as much as 15% after the French video-game maker’s guidance suggests operating profits will likely grow slower than bookings in FY25.
EasyJet shares fall as much as 7.8%, the biggest drop in seven months. Analyst say management views on revenue per seat in the fourth quarter seem softer than previous comments.
Siemens shares drop as much as 4.4% after the German industrial giant reported mixed earnings, with its key digital industries division missing already-low expectations.
Deutsche Telekom shares fall as much as 1.4% as the German company’s results fail to answer questions around union wage negotiations and the potential government stake sale in Germany.
ConvaTec shares fall as much as 4.5% after the medical device company lowered its guidance for its Advanced Wound Care division due to uncertainty stemming from proposals outlined last month concerning coverage of skin substitute grafts and cellular and tissue-based products.
Earlier in the session, in Asia stocks also pushed toward a new peak. Shares of Chinese developers soared on optimism that Beijing will provide policy support for the purchase of unsold homes from distressed builders.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with developers front-running the advances in Hong Kong on return from holiday as they reacted to the recent property support proposal, while the upside was capped in the mainland amid little fresh pertinent catalysts aside from Russian President Putin arrival in China where he seeks to deepen the strategic partnership with Chinese President Xi.
ASX 200 was led by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and tech amid a drop in yields.
Nikkei 225 gained but was off today’s best levels as participants digested a firmer currency, steeper-than-expected contraction in Japanese GDP and mega bank earnings.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded after slipping as much as 0.3% to a five-week low; USD/JPY fell 0.1% at 154.90, after sliding as low as 153.60. The yen rose for a second day, shrugging off GDP data that showed a contraction in Japan’s economy as investors chose to focus on long dollar liquidation. JPY and CHF are the strongest performers and only gainers in G-10 FX. AUD and NOK fall the most.
In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve flatter on the day, pivoting around a near-unchanged 10-year sector as post-CPI price action consolidates around Wednesday’s session highs. US yields are cheaper by around 2bp across front-end of the curve and richer by 1bp across long-end, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2.2bp and 2bp on the day. 10-year yields are little changed on the day trading around 4.335% with the two-year yield rose 1bps to 4.73%, bouncing off 4.70% hit in earlier trading. Bunds and gilts both lagging by 1bp in the sector. Swaps imply an 86% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, compared with 73% earlier in the week; around 49bps of cuts are priced in total through the end of the year, up from around 43bps before the CPI print on Wednesday. US session focus includes data releases at 8:30am New York along with five scheduled Fed speakers.
In commodities, crude futures and spot gold are steady. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.5%, outperforming peers.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims, April housing starts/building permits, May New York services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, April import/export price index (8:30am) and April industrial production (9:15am). Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Barr, Barkin (10am), Harker (10:30am), Mester (12pm) and Bostic (3:50pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,336.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 523.95
MXAP up 1.1% to 181.64
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 568.91
Nikkei up 1.4% to 38,920.26
Topix up 0.2% to 2,737.54
Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 19,376.53
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,122.40
Sensex down 0.3% to 72,748.60
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.6% to 7,881.29
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,753.00
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.42%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0872
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $83.07/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $83.05/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,386.10
US Dollar Index little changed at 104.38
Top Overnight News
Chinese property developers spike as expectations grow that local governments around the country will continue buying up excess housing units to bolster the property market. WSJ
China renews call for political end to Ukraine war as Xi Jinping rolls out red carpet for Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Any settlement must respect security and sovereignty of all parties, Chinese president says after talks Sino-Russian relationship has withstood international ‘storms and changes’ and sets a model for mutual respect and cooperation, he says. SCMP
Chinese goods are still getting into the US despite rising trade tensions between the two nations, although increasingly they are being funneled in via Vietnam. RTRS
MSFT asks hundreds of employees in China working on cloud computing and AI to transfer outside the country as tensions rise between Beijing and Washington. WSJ
Japan’s Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected at -2% (vs. the Street’s -1.5% forecast) and revisions were negative, scrambling BOJ plans to proceed with further tightening steps. RTRS
The ECB published its Financial Stability Review for May and provided a slightly improved outlook on the macro landscape – “Euro area financial stability conditions have improved as recession risks decline, but markets remain exposed to possible adverse macro-financial and geopolitical surprises”. ECB
Biden’s political team feels the president’s poll numbers are sagging because the country isn’t yet focused on the election and the prospect of a second Trump term, which is why they pushed for an early debate (Biden and Trump will face off against each other on June 27). NYT
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant criticized Netanyahu’s indecision on figuring out a post-war governance structure for Gaza (Gallant warned that the present course will result in one of two undesirable scenarios: continued Hamas rule or IDF control over Gaza’s civilian population). Jerusalem Post
Ray Dalio has warned that the US government’s rising debt levels could hit Treasury bonds, arguing that investors should move some of their money to foreign markets. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the major indices rallied to fresh record highs after softer CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets. ASX 200 was led by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and tech amid a drop in yields. Nikkei 225 gained but was off today’s best levels as participants digested a firmer currency, steeper-than-expected contraction in Japanese GDP and mega bank earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with developers front-running the advances in Hong Kong on return from holiday as they reacted to the recent property support proposal, while the upside was capped in the mainland amid little fresh pertinent catalysts aside from Russian President Putin arrival in China where he seeks to deepen the strategic partnership with Chinese President Xi.
Top Asian News
Japanese Economy Minister Shindo said regarding GDP that the economy is expected to continue moderate recovery, while he added that they need to pay close attention to risks related to forex fluctuations that would push up domestic prices.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) are mostly lower, unable to continue the US CPI-induced gains from the prior session. Bourses initially opened marginally in the red, and continued to edge lower as the morning progressed. European sectors are mixed; Insurance is the clear outperformer, propped up by post-earning gains in Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in crude prices over the past few days. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with some of the post-CPI optimism seemingly fizzling out. Stock specifics today include Cisco (+4.5% pre-market), which beat on its top/bottom lines.
Top European News
ECB’s de Guindos says price falls in CRE market to continue but at a slower pace than last year; rise in NPLs and rise in funding costs to weigh on bank profits this year
Statistics Swiss says domestic GDP likely 0.2% in Q1.
Bank of Spain says to start process to establish bank’s countercyclical buffer in Q4; plans to establish countercyclical buffer at 0.5%.
Norges Bank Expectations Survey Q2’24. The economists expect goods and services inflation 12 months ahead to be 3.6%, down 0.1pp from the previous quarter. The economists expect the average rise in real wages will be 1.2% in 2024, up 0.3pp from the previous quarter.
FX
DXY is attempting to recoup lost ground after the fallout from yesterday’s CPI and retail sales saw the index make a low at 104.07; next up, US IJC & Philly Fed data.
EUR/USD is marginally softer vs. the USD after EUR/USD ran out of steam ahead of 1.09. IJC could see the pair retest 1.09 given the reaction to last week’s jump in claims.
GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD in quiet trade but holding onto a bulk of yesterday’s notable gains. Cable went as high as 1.27 before running into resistance. If Cable manages to resume its ascent higher and breach 1.27, the April high sits just above at 1.2709.
JPY remains one of the main beneficiaries from yesterday’s post-data dollar selling as US-Japanese rate differentials turn in Japan’s favour. USD/JPY down as low as 153.61 before scaling back losses to around 154.75 currently.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD following yesterday’s session of chunky gains. AUD/USD saw mixed jobs data overnight and has currently scaled back from a 0.6714 peak (highest since Jan) and retreated back onto a 0.66 handle.
Fixed Income
USTs are steady thus far with benchmarks slightly shy of this morning’s peak but still in the green. A relative pullback which is being led by the short-end with the 2yr basically unchanged and lagging a touch, with an unusually sizeable for the time block trade perhaps impacting; USTs in slim 109-24 to 109-31+ bounds.
Gilt price action is similar to that seen in USTs, with Gilts just shy of today’s WTD 98.76 peak with nothing of note until 99.00 and then 99.10 from mid-April.
Bund have also drifted back towards the unchanged mark with Bunds going as low as 131.63; overall unreactive to Spanish/French auctions.
France sells EUR 11.998bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12bln 2.50% 2027, 2.75% 2029, 2.75% 2030, 2.50% 2030 Bond
Commodities
Crude benchmarks were in the green, though now off best levels (now flat) as the Dollar attempts to pare back some of its recent CPI-induced losses; Brent July hovers around USD 83/bbl, whilst WTI trades around USD 79/bbl.
Precious metals are mixed; spot gold is flat whilst spot silver sees mild losses. XAU topped out at USD 2397/oz after failing to breach USD 2400/oz.
Base metals hold little bias as the post-CPI move pauses for breath into more US data and Fed speak. In addition to pressure emanating from modest USD strength.
Azerbaijan Oil production at 476k in April (prev. 481k M/M)
LME says daily stock data has been delayed; investigating the situation
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected US calls for a post-war plan in Gaza, while Arab governments have rejected the idea of establishing an Arab-led civilian administration in Gaza, according to WSJ.
Hamas’s chief said the fate of truce talks is uncertain as Israel insists on occupying Rafah crossing, according to AFP News Agency.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah launched drones at a military base west of Israel’s Tiberias in the deepest strike into Israeli territory thus far.
Massive Israeli airstrikes were reported in Baalbek, Lebanon, according to Kann’s Amichai Stein.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it launched a drone attack on a “vital” target in Eilat, southern Israel, according to Iran International.
Geopolitics: Other
Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with Russian President Putin that China will always be a good neighbour, friend, and partner of mutual trust with Russia, while he added China is ready to work together with Russia to achieve development and rejuvenation of our respective countries and uphold world equity and justice. Furthermore, Russian President Putin said Moscow and Beijing have acquired solid baggage of practical cooperation and Russia-China cooperation stands as a stabilising factor for the world.
Ukrainian military said “intensive” enemy fire prompted the move of some troops to new positions in the Kupiansk direction, east of Kharkiv.
US Event Calendar
08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 231,000
May Continuing Claims, est. 1.78m, prior 1.79m
08:30: April Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
April Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
April Export Price Index YoY, est. -1.1%, prior -1.4%
April Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
08:30: May New York Fed Services Business, prior -0.6
08:30: April Housing Starts MoM, est. 7.6%, prior -14.7%
April Housing Starts, est. 1.42m, prior 1.32m
April Building Permits MoM, est. 0.9%, prior -4.3%, revised -3.7%
April Building Permits, est. 1.48m, prior 1.46m, revised 1.47m
08:30: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 8.0, prior 15.5
09:15: April Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
April Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
April Capacity Utilization, est. 78.4%, prior 78.4%
Central Bank Speakers
10:00: Fed’s Barr Testifies to Senate Banking
10:00: Fed’s Barkin on CNBC
10:30: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Higher Education, Healthcare
12:00: Fed’s Mester Gives Remarks on Economic Outlook
15:50: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Moderated Chat on Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
There was the slightest hint of stagflation in what was a big day in global macro yesterday but markets were in no mood to countenance such a view as a small miss in headline CPI helped ignite a rates rally, helping the S&P 500 (+1.17%) and STOXX 600 (+0.59%) to both hit fresh all time highs. Today the highlight might be to see if last week’s surprising spike in US initial jobless claims, after months of calm, was a one-off or not. Our economists think it may have been due to changes in the NY school holiday dates. We will see.
In terms of the details of the April CPI report, the headline came in at a monthly +0.3% (vs +0.4% expected). The year-on-year rate fell from +3.5% to +3.4% as expected, so it was a pretty marginal miss. Core CPI came in at +0.29% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the year-on-year rate falling to +3.6% from +3.8% (as expected). This marks the lowest annual core inflation print in two years but still at uncomfortable levels for the Fed. Digging deeper, monthly core services inflation slowed from +0.5% to +0.4%, and core goods inflation remained negative at -0.1%. A welcome development was the deceleration in shelter rents, which fell from +0.5% to +0.4%. But as markets celebrated the miss on headline CPI, core services excluding shelter, otherwise known as supercore, increased from +4.8% year-on-year in March, to +4.9% year-on-year. This measure has been rising consistently since last October in year-on-year terms, so one to watch for in the months ahead, even as the month-on-month rate slowed from +0.6% to +0.4%. Overall, our US economists see the CPI print as a step in the right direction after the hot Q1 prints, but with further progress needed over the coming months to give the Fed enough confidence to cut rates on declining inflation alone. See their full reaction here
At the same time, we also had the US retail sales data for April, which saw the headline print stagnate (0.0% vs +0.4% expected). This came alongside a slight downward revision to the March reading (from +0.7% to +0.6%). The retail control group, which feeds into GDP, fell by -0.3% (vs +0.1% expected), with the March number also revised lower. So, retail sales pointing to a slow start to Q2, with signs that US consumer spending has lost some of its momentum. Adding to this picture, the NAHB housing market index also fell below expectations, dropping from 51 to 45 (vs 50 expected). This could be a lagged response to higher mortgage rates or poor weather in the Spring. Or a combination of the two.
The ever so slightly weaker CPI print for April, coupled with the downside surprise to retail sales, saw markets raise their expectations of Fed rate cuts for 2024, with the odds of a rate cut by the September meeting rising from 50% to 61%. And markets moved back to pricing two full cuts in 2024 (+9.0bps to 52bps) for the first time since the last CPI print five weeks ago.
Given these developments, US Treasuries recorded a solid rally across the curve. 10yr yields fell -9.9bps to 4.34%, their lowest levels since early April, while at the front end 2yr yields were down -9.1bps to 4.725%. This move was led by real yields, as the 10yr real yield slipped -7.5bps, its largest decline since January. Amid the rates repricing, the broad dollar index saw its weakest session of the year so far (-0.64%). This morning in Asia, 10yr US yields are another 2bps lower.
The rates rally echoed across the globe, as investors moved to bring forward the probability of rate cuts from other central banks. Pricing of a June ECB cut rose from 92% to 98%, with 75bps of cuts now priced by year-end (+7.0bps on the day). Prospects of a June cut were also reaffirmed by the latest ECB commentary, with France’s Villeroy stating it was “very likely [the ECB will] start cutting rates in June”, and Estonia’s Muller commenting that a “rate cut in June is very probable”. Similarly, for the Bank of England, the chance of a 25bps cut in June rose from 55% to 60%, and for the Bank of Canada it rose from 39% to 48%. European sovereign bond yields had already been trading several basis points lower on the day prior to the US data and extended their decline thereafter. Yields on 10yr bunds (-12.5bps) posted their largest decline since August, with OATs (-13.2bps), BTPs (-15.3bps) and gilts (-10.8bps) all also outperforming US fixed income.
With the respite in the streak of upside surprises to headline inflation at least, US equities advanced as the S&P 500 gained +1.17% to a new all-time high of 5,308. All but one of the S&P 500 sectors were in the green, with information technology leading the charge after rising +2.29%. The NASDAQ (+1.40%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.16%) both also posted new record highs. But the gains were also enjoyed more broadly, as the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose +1.14% to its highest level since late March. The positive sentiment saw the VIX volatility index decline -1.0 points to 12.45, its lowest level since early January. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 increased +0.59%, which marks its 9th consecutive advance, and another all-time high.
In our new regular meme-stock corner, GameStop (-18.87%) slumped after an astonishing start to the week. There were also declines for other meme-stock names that had seen sizeable gains over the previous two days, including AMC Entertainment (-20.00%) and Hertz (-8.67%).
Overnight in Asia the risk rally continues with the Hang Seng (+1.59%) leading gains after returning from a holiday with the Nikkei (+0.80%) also trading notably higher. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.70%) is also catching up after a holiday with the CSI (+0.53%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.43%) also advancing but have lagged their global peers this week. S&P 500 (+0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.20%) futures continue to edge higher.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, shrinking at an annual rate of -2.0% (v/s -1.2% expected) as consumption and exports declined. This will complicate the debate for the BoJ although with the Dollar fall, the Yen is rallying. This time yesterday we were at 156.5 and we’re now at around 153.8.
Elsewhere, Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly advanced to +4.1% in April (v/s +3.9% expected) as against an upwardly revised +3.9% for March, thus reducing the possibility of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The economy added a net 38,500 positions in April with full-time roles down 6,100 while part-time positions rose 44,600. The participation rate ticked higher to 66.7% in April from 66.6% in March. Following the data release, yields on the 10yr government bonds fell sharply (-12.8bps on the day) to trade at 4.19% while the policy-sensitive 2yr bond yields has moved -11.1bps lower to 3.91% as I type.
Now to the day ahead, and data releases include the US April industrial production, import and export indices, housing starts, capacity utilization, building permits, the May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, the New York Fed Services business activity, and initial jobless claims. Outside the US, we have the Italy March trade balance. From central banks, we will hear from the Fed’s Harker, Bostic and Mester, the ECB’s Panetta, De Cos, Nagel and Villeroy, as well as the ECB’s financial stability review. We will also hear from the BoE’s Greene. Earnings results include Walmart, Applied Materials, Deere, and Take-Two
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
US equity futures modestly firmer, Dollar attempts to recoup recent losses & AUD lags post jobs data; US IJC due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 05:51 AM
European equities are mostly lower whilst US futures gain modestly
Dollar is firmer paring back some of the CPI-induced losses, AUD lags after mixed employment data
Bonds are steady, though with a very mild negative bias
Crude benchmarks are flat, XAU is rangebound and base metals are mixed
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.3%) are mostly lower, unable to continue the US CPI-induced gains from the prior session. Bourses initially opened marginally in the red, and continued to edge lower as the morning progressed.
European sectors are mixed; Insurance is the clear outperformer, propped up by post-earning gains in Swiss Re and Zurich Insurance. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in crude prices over the past few days.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with some of the post-CPI optimism seemingly fizzling out. Stock specifics today include Cisco (+4.5% pre-market), which beat on its top/bottom lines.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
DXY is attempting to recoup lost ground after the fallout from yesterday’s CPI and retail sales saw the index make a low at 104.07; next up, US IJC & Philly Fed data.
EUR/USD is marginally softer vs. the USD after EUR/USD ran out of steam ahead of 1.09. IJC could see the pair retest 1.09 given the reaction to last week’s jump in claims.
GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD in quiet trade but holding onto a bulk of yesterday’s notable gains. Cable went as high as 1.27 before running into resistance. If Cable manages to resume its ascent higher and breach 1.27, the April high sits just above at 1.2709.
JPY remains one of the main beneficiaries from yesterday’s post-data dollar selling as US-Japanese rate differentials turn in Japan’s favour. USD/JPY down as low as 153.61 before scaling back losses to around 154.75 currently.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD following yesterday’s session of chunky gains. AUD/USD saw mixed jobs data overnight and has currently scaled back from a 0.6714 peak (highest since Jan) and retreated back onto a 0.66 handle.
Click here for the FX Option Expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
USTs are steady thus far with benchmarks slightly shy of this morning’s peak but still in the green. A relative pullback which is being led by the short-end with the 2yr basically unchanged and lagging a touch, with an unusually sizeable for the time block trade perhaps impacting; USTs in slim 109-24 to 109-31+ bounds.
Gilt price action is similar to that seen in USTs, with Gilts just shy of today’s WTD 98.76 peak with nothing of note until 99.00 and then 99.10 from mid-April.
Bund have also drifted back towards the unchanged mark with Bunds going as low as 131.63; overall unreactive to Spanish/French auctions.
Crude benchmarks were in the green, though now off best levels (now flat) as the Dollar attempts to pare back some of its recent CPI-induced losses; Brent July hovers around USD 83/bbl, whilst WTI trades around USD 79/bbl.
Precious metals are mixed; spot gold is flat whilst spot silver sees mild losses. XAU topped out at USD 2397/oz after failing to breach USD 2400/oz.
Base metals hold little bias as the post-CPI move pauses for breath into more US data and Fed speak. In addition to pressure emanating from modest USD strength.
Azerbaijan Oil production at 476k in April (prev. 481k M/M)
LME says daily stock data has been delayed; investigating the situation
Norwegian GDP Month Mainland (Mar) -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.3%); Q1 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
Italian Consumer Prices Final MM (Apr) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Consumer Prices Final YY (Apr) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s de Guindos says price falls in CRE market to continue but at a slower pace than last year; rise in NPLs and rise in funding costs to weigh on bank profits this year
Statistics Swiss says domestic GDP likely 0.2% in Q1.
Bank of Spain says to start process to establish bank’s countercyclical buffer in Q4; plans to establish countercyclical buffer at 0.5%.
Norges Bank Expectations Survey Q2’24. The economists expect goods and services inflation 12 months ahead to be 3.6%, down 0.1pp from the previous quarter. The economists expect the average rise in real wages will be 1.2% in 2024, up 0.3pp from the previous quarter.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Goolsbee (non-voter) said it’s great if the decrease in housing inflation seen in April CPI data continues, while he added that he is still optimistic and his read of the evidence is that house price inflation comes down substantially, according to a Marketplace interview. It was also reported that Goolsbee said he is optimistic inflation will continue on a downward trajectory, according to a CNN interview.
Kansas City Fed said the annual Economic Policy Symposium will be on August 22nd-24th in Jackson Hole where the topic will be “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy”.
Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected US calls for a post-war plan in Gaza, while Arab governments have rejected the idea of establishing an Arab-led civilian administration in Gaza, according to WSJ.
Hamas’s chief said the fate of truce talks is uncertain as Israel insists on occupying Rafah crossing, according to AFP News Agency.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah launched drones at a military base west of Israel’s Tiberias in the deepest strike into Israeli territory thus far.
Massive Israeli airstrikes were reported in Baalbek, Lebanon, according to Kann’s Amichai Stein.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it launched a drone attack on a “vital” target in Eilat, southern Israel, according to Iran International.
OTHER
Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with Russian President Putin that China will always be a good neighbour, friend, and partner of mutual trust with Russia, while he added China is ready to work together with Russia to achieve development and rejuvenation of our respective countries and uphold world equity and justice. Furthermore, Russian President Putin said Moscow and Beijing have acquired solid baggage of practical cooperation and Russia-China cooperation stands as a stabilising factor for the world.
Ukrainian military said “intensive” enemy fire prompted the move of some troops to new positions in the Kupiansk direction, east of Kharkiv.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and now holds firmly above USD 66k, with Ethereum also sitting above USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the major indices rallied to fresh record highs after softer CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets.
ASX 200 was led by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and tech amid a drop in yields.
Nikkei 225 gained but was off today’s best levels as participants digested a firmer currency, steeper-than-expected contraction in Japanese GDP and mega bank earnings.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with developers front-running the advances in Hong Kong on return from holiday as they reacted to the recent property support proposal, while the upside was capped in the mainland amid little fresh pertinent catalysts aside from Russian President Putin arrival in China where he seeks to deepen the strategic partnership with Chinese President Xi.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Economy Minister Shindo said regarding GDP that the economy is expected to continue moderate recovery, while he added that they need to pay close attention to risks related to forex fluctuations that would push up domestic prices.
Japanese GDP QQ (Q1) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.0%); Annualised (Q1) -2.0% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.0%)
Australian Employment (Apr) 38.5k vs. Exp. 23.7k (Prev. -6.6k); Full-Time Employment (Apr) -6.1k (Prev. 27.9k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.8%)
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
SLOVAKIA
Slovak PM Robert Fico Expected To Survive; UK Media Appears To Justify Assassination Attempt
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 06:40 PM
Update(1840ET): Prime Minister Fico is said to be improving, following reports that he was in surgery due to several gunshot wounds from the Wednesday assassination attempt. Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba has told the BBC he “is not in a life-threatening situation at this moment.”
“Fortunately, as far as I know, the operation went well –and I guess in the end he will survive,” the statement indicated.
Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinak has told reporters in a briefing that “there is no doubt” that the attack was a politically motivated assassination attempt. “The inability to accept the will of some part of the public, which some group does not like, is the result that they have worked towards today,” he said in reference to Fico’s political opponents. A video is widely circulated of the detained suspect’s interrogation wherein the man, identified as Juraj Cintula, confesses to saying he “disagreed” with his government’s policies.
Western media coverage of the attempted killing has been interesting to say the least. Fico was alongside Viktor Orban a dissenter when it comes to the NATO line on Ukraine.
Journalist Glenn Greenwald has commented, for example, “Listen to this Sky News report on the shooting of Robert Fico. Not only do they come close to justifying it because he opposes aid to Ukraine, but they also casually imply that he’s being paid by the Kremlin. This casual accusation is so prevalent in the West, and toxic.” The Sky segment in question which calls Fico “very pro-Russian” and that it’s “not surprising” that the attack took place is below:
Unsurprisingly, Sky News has literally justified the assassination attempt on Slovakian PM Robert Fico. Despicable ghouls.
Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, killed in the southern Gaza Strip, May 14, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
An Israeli soldier was killed during fighting in the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the military announced Wednesday morning, marking the first fatality in the Israel Defense Forces’ push into Rafah.
The slain soldier was named as Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, 19, from Petah Tikva. He served in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion.
Gispan’s death brought the toll of slain troops in the Israel Defense Forces ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in operations on the border to 273.
The IDF began sending troops into the southern Gaza border city of Rafah last week in what it has described as a “precise” operation, with soldiers currently holding a relatively small area southeast of the city.
On Wednesday, the IDF said that during operations in eastern Rafah, troops of the Givati Brigade raided a Hamas training camp.
The soldiers killed several gunmen at the base, captured weapons, and located mock IDF vehicles used by the terror group for training, the military said.
A mock IDF tank is seen at a Hamas training base in eastern Rafah, in a handout photo published May 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Nearly 450,000 of the roughly one million Palestinians who had been sheltering in Rafah have evacuated in recent days as the IDF has escalated its operations in Gaza’s southernmost city.
Israeli officials have said four of Hamas’s remaining six battalions are located in Rafah, along with the terror group’s leadership and possibly many of the hostages. But it has faced pressure from the US and much of the rest of the international community to not carry out a full-scale offensive in the city.
Meanwhile, the military said its 98th Division pushed into the Jabaliya camp in the northern Gaza Strip overnight, killing many gunmen amid the fighting.
The IDF said the division’s 7th and 460th armored brigades battled “dozens of armed squads and eliminated a large number of terrorists” over the past day.
In the same area, a drone strike killed a terror cell responsible for rocket fire on the southern city of Sderot on Tuesday, the military said.
Israeli troops operate in eastern Rafah in the Gaza Strip, in a handout photo published May 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israeli forces recently returned to Jabaliya after the IDF identified terror operatives regrouping there. The city, just north of Gaza City, was one of the first targets of the Israeli ground offensive into Gaza, which launched in late October as Jerusalem sought to uproot Hamas and return the hostages held in the Strip.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Tuesday that troops are now operating in areas of Jabaliya that the IDF previously did not reach in the initial ground offensive in northern Gaza. More than 80 gunmen have been killed in the operation that started on Sunday.
On Wednesday morning, several rockets were fired from Jabaliya at Sderot. Some of the rockets were downed by the Iron Dome air defense system, while at least one struck an unoccupied building, authorities said. There were no injuries.
A building in Sderot damaged by a rocket fired from Gaza on May 15, 2024. (Sderot Municipality)
The rate of rocket fire on southern towns has steadily increased in recent days as the IDF was carrying out new operations against Hamas.
Also in the past day, some 80 sites used by terror groups, including buildings, weapon depots, rocket launchers, observation posts, and other infrastructure, were struck by the Air Force, the military said.
The IDF also confirmed Wednesday morning that troops of the Nahal Brigade withdrew from Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood after six days, to prepare for “additional offensive operations.”
The IDF reentered Zeitoun last Thursday for the third time in the ongoing war after identifying Hamas regrouping there.
Reservists of the Carmeli Brigade continued to operate in Zeitoun, the IDF added, contradicting media reports claiming that the six-day operation there had ended.
On Tuesday night, Hagari said troops had killed more than 150 gunmen and destroyed some 80 sites used by terror groups in the ongoing Zeitoun operation.
Backdropped by smoke rising to the sky after an explosion in the Gaza Strip, an Israeli tank stands near the Israel-Gaza border as seen from southern Israel, Monday, May 13, 2024. (AP/Leo Correa)
Some critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war strategy have blamed the army’s need to double back into northern Gaza on his administration’s inability to determine what will replace Hamas as the civilian authority in Gaza.
“There is no doubt that a governmental alternative to Hamas will create pressure on Hamas, but that is a question for the political echelon,” Hagari said Tuesday in response to a question.
Israel invaded Gaza following the October 7 massacre, during which thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed into southern Israel communities, killing some 1,200 people and taking 252 hostage to Gaza. Israel has vowed to eliminate Hamas to ensure it no longer poses a threat, but is also involved in indirect talks with the group aimed at an extended truce and exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 35,000 people in the Strip have been killed in the fighting so far, a figure that cannot be independently verified and includes some 15,000 terror operatives Israel says it has killed in battle. Israel also says it killed some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/
As Gaza Aid Pier Completed, Pentagon Vows To Protect US Troops Overseeing It
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 12:05 PM
The Pentagon announced Thursday that its floating pier built for Gaza aid has finally been completed and installed. Badly needed humanitarian aid, especially food, will begin being delivered by ships imminently.
The completion comes more than two months after President Biden first unveiled the plan, and has been fraught with challenges including inclement weather as well as threats on Hamas against any potential foreign troop presence.
On this latter point, Navy Vice Adm. Brad Cooper of Central Command, said that “protection of U.S. forces participating is a top priority. And as such, in the last several weeks, the United States and Israel have developed an integrated security plan to protect all the personnel.”
He added, “We are confident in the ability of this security arrangement to protect those involved.” Israel’s military will provide security on the shore while the USS Arleigh Burke and the USS Paul Ignatius patrol waters just off the coast.
US CENTCOM has further confirmed, “Trucks carrying humanitarian assistance are expected to begin moving ashore in the coming days.” The military statement added, “The United Nations will receive the aid and coordinate its distribution into Gaza.”
Overseeing and handling the inbound humanitarian aid itself will be the UN’s World Food Program.
Israel’s military commented that “We have been working for months on full cooperation with (the U.S. military) on this project, facilitating it, supporting it in any way possible.”
Some humanitarian aid organizations and leaders have still criticized the costly pier project, questioning why Israel doesn’t just let overland convoys into the Gaza Strip:
Because land crossings could bring in all the needed aid if Israeli officials allowed, the U.S.-built pier-and-sea route “is a solution for a problem that doesn’t exist,” said Scott Paul, an associate director of the Oxfam humanitarian organization.
One recent issue to arise is the increased number of attacks by Israeli settlers on aid trucks and convoys. Israeli media has confirmed these attacks, including the below:
Israeli settlers block an aid truck for Gaza and beat up the driver unconscious
0:07
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Several examples of such filmed attacks on aid convoys have been widely circulating over the last days…
This driver thought he could bring rice to Gaza. Everything here is on the floor” In a video posted on social media, an Israeli settler expresses joy while recording footage of destroyed aid intended for Gaza. Israeli settlers attacked the truck and destroyed the aid they were carrying at the Tarqumiyah checkpoint in the Hebron Hills.
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21.5K Views
The US military has further described of what comes next as follows: “Trucks carrying humanitarian assistance are expected to begin moving ashore in the coming days.” The statement added: “The United Nations will receive the aid and coordinate its distribution into Gaza.”
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
IDF strikes deep in Lebanon after Hezbollah drone attack
Hezbollah said on Wednesday that its drone attack was in response to “assassinations” carried out by Israel but did not specify that it was in retaliation for Mekki’s killing.
By TZVI JOFFRE, REUTERSMAY 15, 2024 21:48Updated: MAY 16, 2024 00:53
Fires rage in the North of Israel due to Hezbollah rocket fire, May 10, 2024.(photo credit: screenshot)
The IDF struck several sites in the Baalbek area in eastern Lebanon on Wednesday night, just hours after Hezbollah launched a drone toward a site west of Tiberias in northern Israel, according to Lebanese reports.
The airstrikes targeted sites near the towns of Nabi Chit and Brital in the Bekaa Valley, according to Lebanese reports.
On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah said it launched Kamikaze drones toward an IDF base west of Tiberias in northern Israel, the deepest strike the terrorist group has claimed in Israel since the start of the war in October. According to Israeli media, a kamikaze drone exploded near the Golani Junction, causing damage. No casualties were reported in the incident.
The attack came a day after an Israeli strike killed a Hezbollah field commander, Hussein Mekki, in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said Mekki was responsible for attacks against Israeli civilians and territory since the start of the Gaza war in October.
Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral of Wissam Tawil, a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces who according to Lebanese security sources was killed during an Israeli strike on south Lebanon, in Khirbet Silem, Lebanon, January 9, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)
Attack came “in retaliation”
Hezbollah said on Wednesday that its drone attack was in response to “assassinations” carried out by Israel but did not specify that it was in retaliation for Mekki’s killing.
Earlier on Wednesday, about 60 rockets were fired in a barrage toward the Kiryat Shmona and Meron areas in northern Israel.
Over 260 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon over the last seven months.
In April, Hezbollah said it had struck Israeli military bases north of the city of Acre with drones, which was at the time the deepest its attacks had reached.
END
ISRAEL/TURKEY
Turkey’s sudden ban on trade with Israel is already affecting Jews in both countries
The shutdown, which Turkey’s Islamist-leaning president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on May 3, is putting pressure on prices in Israel and cutting off a major trade route for kosher food.
By DAVID I. KLEIN/JTAMAY 15, 2024 08:41
Recep Tayyip Erdogan(photo credit: REUTERS)
Despite months of deteriorating relations and increasingly hostile rhetoric, the complete shutdown of trade between Turkey and Israel earlier this month came as a shock to many.
The shutdown, which Turkey’s Islamist-leaning president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on May 3, is putting pressure on prices in Israel, cutting off a major trade route for kosher food and affecting people on both corners of the eastern Mediterranean.
“For the last two weeks, everything stopped. We can’t do normal business,” Rami Simon, a Turkish Jew who trades aluminum and construction materials to Israel, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
The shutdown is one of the most sweeping steps taken by any country to oppose Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Erdogan said trade would resume only when there is a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the terror group that Erdogan has said he supports.
It also marks a significant breach for countries that have long had close physical and economic ties and, until recently, resilient diplomatic relations despite periods of tension.
A Turkish flag flutters atop the Turkish embassy as an Israeli flag is seen nearby, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 26, 2016 (credit: REUTERS/BAZ RATNER)
Turkey’s previous trade partnership with Israel
In 2023, Turkey was Israel’s fourth-largest trading partner, responsible for billions of dollars of exports to Israel. (Israel has sent a much smaller volume of goods, mainly oil and industrial supplies, to Turkey.)
As the world’s seventh-largest food producer, Turkey has been the main source of some staples consumed in Israel, including pasta and chocolate. And the countries’ close proximity — it’s about 400 miles by sea between Mersin, southern Turkey’s largest port, and Tel Aviv — made Turkey a go-to source for food and construction materials.
“Given the geographical proximity of Turkey, you could order something, and within a couple of days, you have it,” explains Hay Eitan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkish-born Jew and scholar of Turkey-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University. “So that was a huge plus for the Israeli businessman, who preferred to do business with Turkey rather than other more distant destinations.”
To serve the Israeli market, more than 300 kosher-certified factories operate across Turkey. Before the embargo, at any given moment around 20 Israeli mashgichim — kosher certifiers — would be visiting to check on factories across the country, from the Iranian border to the Aegean coast.
That’s all ground to a halt, a source familiar with the Turkish kashrut industry told JTA, and Turkish factory owners and Israeli certification agencies are reconsidering their contracts. The source requested anonymity because of the delicate political situation.
Some kosher foods require oversight only once or twice a year, meaning that current production runs could be salvaged if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the coming months. But others, according to Orthodox Jewish law, require more frequent supervision, if not constant. That includes Pas or Cholov Yisroel goods, which require Jewish supervisors to be present during the entire production runs of bread and dairy products.
Such kosher standards are common in haredi Orthodox communities, and even US kosher supermarkets frequently stock goods produced in Turkey that are exported to the United States from Israel by Israel-based kosher brands. The ban also affects these products.
“Prices are going to rise,” Yanarocak said, noting that in Israel, he’s seeing particular concern about the price of tomatoes. Although Israel is famous for its cultivation of tomatoes, it has also imported huge quantities from Turkey — nearly $40 million worth a year in recent years.
Yanarocak said he foresaw more lasting effects, too. “I assume that the [Israeli] government will draw some conclusions from this, that we have to do everything in order to minimize our dependency on other nations, not only Turkey. Therefore, I’m expecting to see an increase in national production,” Yanarocak said.
But crops always wax and wane, and a shortage of tomatoes is a relatively manageable problem for Israel, he said. Other products can’t withstand an interruption in supply, making it likely that Israel will look for more stable suppliers faster.
“It will be very hard for Turkey to come back with such strategic goods as steel, cement, aluminum, and other construction materials,” Yanarocak said. “Because these products are considered crucial for the country, in the long run, I assume that Turkey will not be able to come back to the Israeli market in the same way, even if we witness a U-turn.”
If an about-face in Erdogan’s stance comes — and some say the signs of one are already showing — it would mark a return to the norm in the history of the two countries’ relations.
Turkey and Israel have long had close economic relations. They also maintained largely positive diplomatic ones for decades while Turkey was under the rule of secularist parties in the 20th century.
Relations have been rockier since Erdogan’s ascendance in the early 2000s, but even at their lowest points — such as after the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010, in which Israel raided a Turkish ship that was attempting to breach Israel’s blockade of Gaza — trade remained high.
On October 6, the day before Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, diplomatic relations were at their highest point in years. Ambassadors had once again been exchanged between the two countries after the rocky period following the Mavi Marmara incident. Erdogan had spoken positively about his calls with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and was even planning a trip to Israel.
Yet soon after the October 7 attack, Erdogan pivoted towards Hamas, calling the group not terrorists but “liberators” and “Mujahideen,” an Islamic term for a holy warrior. Some analysts interpreted his stance as an effort to appeal to conservative voters who have gravitated towards the Islamist New Welfare party, which has loudly accused Erdogan of being too soft in its support of Gaza and the Palestinians.
In March, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known locally as AKP, suffered its largest loss in two decades, bleeding voters on the right. It was soon after that Erdogan ramped up his pressure on Israel and announced the trade embargo.
After Israeli officials suggested last week that Turkey may already be softening its stance, Turkey denied that it was easing the embargo but did clarify that there would be a three-month period during which pre-existing contracts could be satisfied.
But Erdogan further strained ties this weekend when, during a meeting with the Greek prime minister, he doubled down on his stance that Hamas was not a terror group and declared that over 1,000 Hamas fighters were being treated in Turkish hospitals. He did not explain when or how they arrived in Turkey from Gaza.
Still, there are glimmers of hope that the trade ban could be short-lived. Though formal ambassadors have not been reinstated, low-level Israeli diplomats returned to Ankara this week. It’s the first Israeli diplomatic presence in the Turkish capital since October.
Yanarocak noted that he also sees hope in their counterparts at the Turkish Cultural Center in Tel Aviv, who, despite rhetoric from the top, have continued their work.
Turkey’s Jewish population has been in decline for decades, with spurts of emigration in step with periods of political and economic instability. But between 10,000 and 15,000 Jews live in the country today, most in Istanbul with a smaller community in the Aegean port city of Izmir. Many of those who remain are involved in exports with Israel.
Simon said he and others he knows are looking into other countries to ship their products to, but it’s an industry based on connections, and new markets are hard to break into. He also noted that he supplied buyers in Gaza and Palestinian areas of the West Bank as well and now cannot ship his products to them because Israeli ports are closed to Turks.
Simon also said he’s pinning his hopes on a ceasefire, even though Hamas and Israel have so far failed to reach one. Hamas has not accepted any of the ceasefire deals offered to it, insisting that only a permanent ceasefire would be tolerable. Israel rejects the idea of any ceasefire that leaves Hamas in power in Gaza.
“Hopefully we won’t still be thinking about this in a few months when there will be a ceasefire in Gaza. We are waiting for this,” Simon said about the trade embargo.
“If it’s going to take five or six months, we’re going to have a big, big issue and problem,” he added. “After that, if we can still not do business, to export to Israel, I think many people are going to try to look for a different solution for their lives, and maybe ultimately leave Turkey.”
END
Hezbollah Leader Threatens To “Open The Sea” To Flood Europe With Migrants
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah urged Lebanese authorities to ‘open the sea’ in order to flood Europe with a new wave of migrants.
Nasrallah made the remarks during a televised address at a rally marking the eighth anniversary of the assassination of late Hezbollah Resistance military commander Mustafa Badreddine.
The militant leader called for “a national decision that says: we have opened the sea… whoever wants to leave for Europe, for Cyprus, the sea is in front of you. Take a boat and board it.”
The comments are part of an effort to put pressure on the European Union, which announced earlier this month $1 billion in aid to Lebanon to pay for the country to keep Syrian migrants within its borders.
However, there is rising anti-Syrian sentiment within Lebanon, which is currently home to 2 million Syrians, the world’s highest number of refugees per capita. Natives angry at their presence have staged riots.
Lebanon’s economy collapsed in 2019, prompting many of the migrants living there to attempt to head to Europe illegally on small boats.
Nasrallah pointed out that under Lebanon’s agreement with the EU, migrants “are prohibited (from leaving), and so they turn to smuggling and to rubber boats, and there are drownings in the sea, because the Lebanese army is implementing a political decision to stop them from migrating.”
Many Lebanese are angry that the EU money amounts to a bribe to keep displaced Syrians from heading to Europe.
Nasrallah’s comments once again emphasize how migrants are routinely used as a political weapon against western countries.
The wave is mostly comprised of young men who the media falsely labels “refugees,” when in fact most are economic migrants and cause huge problems wherever they go.
Last month, we highlighted how establishment news outlets ludicrously blamed Vladimir Putin for weaponizing migrants to destabilize the west.
In reality, western European countries made the decision to not impose stricter border controls while incentivizing boat migrants to make the journey by offering them free accommodation, healthcare and other benefits at taxpayer expense.
* * *
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RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
‘Guns & Butter’: Putin Explains Reason Behind Major Cabinet Shake-Up
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 06:00 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has for the first time explained the rationale behind this week’s major cabinet reshuffling, which for the first time of the Ukraine operation saw Sergey Shoigu removed as defense minister (and ‘promoted’ to head of the national security council), and former minister for economic development Andrey Belousov moved into the defense chief spot. He described the decision as due to the dramatic rise in the defense budget and military spending.
Putin said of Belousov: “He understands perfectly well what needs to be done in order for the economy of the entire security complex – and the Ministry of Defense as its key component – to fit into the overall economy of the country,” according to state media translation.
The Russian president was addressing a gathering of top military officers. “This is extremely important and relates to the innovative development of industry and taking into account the capabilities of the economy and the budget,” he said, explaining further:
“This relationship between ‘guns’ and ‘butter’, so to speak, must be organically integrated into the overall development strategy of the Russian state,” Putin said. “I hope that Andrey Removich [Belousov] will handle this task in the best possible way.”
Putin noted that Russia’s military spending has grown to approximately 8.7% of GDP in 2024. While not quite the 13% that the Soviet Union was spending in the 1980s at the height of the Cold War, “these are significant resources, and we have to use them very efficiently and effectively,” the president explained.
The appointment had raised eyebrows inside and outside Russia given Belousov has no military experience, nor has he been involved in strategic decision-making regarding the war in Ukraine. Instead, Belousovhas always been a ‘numbers guy’ and Russian central bank planner.
The United States was among those countries claiming that the big shake-up points to a destabilizing trend in the Kremlin due to significant losses suffered by Russia in the context of Ukraine, as well as the sometimes devastating cross-border attacks on Russian soil.
The Biden administration on Monday said it shows signs of“desperation” for Moscow sustaining the high costs of the Ukraine invasion, also amid unprecedented Washington sanctions aimed at Moscow (but which have by and large backfired).
Putin has just spelled out clearly what many observers had already posited – Andrei Belousov’s appointment as defence minister is “linked not least to the fact that spending on the military is growing”
“Our point of view is that this is further indication of Putin’s desperation to sustain his war of aggression against Ukraine, despite it being a major drain on the Russian economy and the heavy losses of Russian troops, with some estimates as high as 315,000 casualties,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said to a press briefing.
RUSSIA UKRAINE
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
about time
(Epoch times)
US Suspends EcoHealth Funding Over Wuhan Lab Compliance
U.S. officials have cut off funding to a nonprofit that funneled government money to a laboratory in China located in the same city where the first COVID-19 cases appeared.
EcoHealth Alliance (EHA), the nonprofit, “did not adequately monitor” compliance from the Wuhan lab with the terms and conditions of a grant from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), Henrietta Brisbon, a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the NIH’s parent agency, said in a May 15 letter to EcoHealth President Peter Daszak. Officials also found that the subaward to Wuhan lacked requirements that would make the grant in compliance with federal law and regulations.
“Given the issues regarding the management of EHA’s grant awards and subawards, I have determined that the immediate suspension of EHA is necessary to protect the public interest,” Ms. Brisbon added later.
EcoHealth, which is based in the United States, passed more than $1 million to the Wuhan lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, over the years to study bat coronaviruses.
In 2019, the experiments yielded a more virulent version of a bat virus in mice, according to an annual report for 2019 that was not conveyed to the U.S. government by EcoHealth until 2021.
U.S. officials then asked for laboratory notebooks and other files regarding the testing. EcoHealth officials said they did not have the files, but had forwarded the request to the Wuhan lab. Wuhan officials never provided the files, according to U.S. and EcoHealth officials.
EcoHealth facilitated gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China without proper oversight, willingly violated multiple requirements of its multimillion-dollar National Institutes of Health grant, and apparently made false statements to the NIH,” Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in a statement. “These actions are wholly abhorrent, indefensible, and must be addressed with swift action. EcoHealth’s immediate funding suspension and future debarment is not only a victory for the U.S. taxpayer, but also for American national security and the safety of citizens worldwide.”
‘s recent report, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services commenced formal debarment proceedings against EcoHealth Alliance. EcoHealth will now face an immediate, government-wide suspension of taxpayer funds — including a hold on all active grants.
·
870.4K Views
Dr. Wenstrup, chairman of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, released a report on May 1 recommending federal prosecutors investigate Mr. Daszak over violations of the grant terms.
Dr. Wenstrup, for instance, noted that EcoHealth blamed the delay in providing the annual report on being “locked out” of the NIH’s system, but that a forensic audit by the government uncovered no evidence supporting that claim.
Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.), the ranking member of the subcommittee, said in a statement that he welcomed the suspension of funding to EcoHealth.
“Every recipient of federal taxpayer funding has an obligation to meet the utmost standards of transparency and accountability to the American public,” he said. “EcoHealth Alliance’s failure to do so is a departure from the longstanding legacy of good faith partnerships between NIH and federal grantees to advance science and the public interest, which remains essential for the continued work of preventing and preparing for future threats to our nation’s public health.”
Mr. Daszak, who holds a doctorate in parasitic infectious diseases, told the subcommmittee in a recent hearing that “in all of our federally funded projects, we have maintained an open, transparent communication with agency staff” and “rapidly provided information critical to public health and agriculture.”
EcoHealth currently has three grants being funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, including a grant to experiment on bats with antibodies against the Nipah virus could be re-infected in lab experiments.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is suspending all funding to EcoHealth and proposing the nonprofit be debarred, or unable to receive funding for a period of time that could last years or even decades.
“The length of debarment, if ultimately imposed, will be based on the seriousness of the cause for debarment,” Ms. Brisbon said.
“Susan G. Komen executive director diagnosed with breast cancer again”; rapper YBN Nahmir “brought back from the dead following a scary medical emergency”; Jeane Manson still in hospital; more
Chris Cuomo, who pushed covid jabs on CNN, admits Moderna vaccine destroyed his health
May 4, 2024
Former CNN host Chris Cuomo was an advocate for the Covid mRNA vaccinations during the pandemic, encouraging his audience to get jabbed. Cuomo received two Moderna shots and felt so strongly about the vaccine rollout that he dedicated personal time to arguing with the unvaccinated on Twitter, accusing those who rejected the jabs of being “ignorant” and “scared.” Life comes at you fast. Fast forward three years and Cuomo has admitted he was injured by the Moderna mRNA vaccine and he is still suffering with the health consequences. While interviewing Nurse Practitioner Sean Barcavage who was featured in a New York Times article today about vaccine injuries, Cuomo called for a 9/11 style commission to answer questions about the vaccine rollout and why millions of people are suffering health consequences after mRNA injections. “We know vaccines can have side-effects,” said Cuomo. “But nobody is really talking about it because they are afraid of blame. They just want it to go away. People like Sean, and me, and millions of others who still have weird stuff with their blood work and their lives and their feelings – you know, physically – are not going away.”
Peter Daszak & ends with agency officials who funded & defended his reckless virus research.”; this piece shares some interesting emails & adds to the fraud of all of COVID; what is true vs what’s not
Start Thacker here, all work here belongs to Thacker:
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Today’s guest essay comes from David Robertson who looks at science officials’ pattern of misleading the public and passing the buck, including possible attempts to create a fall guy to blame for reckless, NIH-funded virus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
When the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic held a recent hearing, viewers beheld an amazing spectacle. For the first time in the Subcommittee’s history, Democrats showed interest in getting to the bottom of the pandemic’s origin and began aggressively interrogating the lone witness: EcoHealth Alliance president, Peter Daszak.
Daszak is a prime candidate for blame in a possible laboratory accident in Wuhan, for an obvious reason: his NIH-funded nonprofit was performing reckless research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) with inadequate safety, right before the Wuhan outbreak. This fact has long been known.
Before working to cover all this up, Anthony Fauci and other virologists stated as much in private emails back in February 2020. Daszak, however, has evaded questions about this for years.
Daszak’s responses to the Subcommittee’s questions did not exactly fill Democrats with confidence. “I remain seriously concerned that you, Dr Daszak, appear to be eluding questions from this Committee in an attempt to avoid consequences,” Democratic Ranking Member, Raul Ruiz, said in his closing statement. “It is important that you and your organization be held accountable.”
In one telling example Daszak claimed that, in a 2020 letter he orchestrated in The Lancet to dismiss claims of a possible Wuhan lab accident as “conspiracy theories”, he was exclusively referring to hairbrained ideas that SARS-CoV-2 had been engineered from snake DNA or had HIV virus inserts. Yet, Daszak made no reference to either of these specifics in The Lancet.
“We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin,” the letter in The Lancet simply states.
Daszak also hid his ties to the WIV in that letter, an act of deceit that compelled The Lancet to revise his conflict of interest statement, and forced Lancet editor Richard Horton to explain this lapse in journal ethics to the British Parliament. To this day, that statement excludes reference to his ties with the WIV.
Dismissing Daszak’s latest attempts to explain away what he had written in a leading medical journal, a Democratic congressional staffer quipped, “It’s possible, perhaps, that you are framing issues in a way that is most favorable to you and less so in a way that is confronting the science at any given moment.”
Finally, it seems, politicians on both sides of the aisle are curious enough to ask difficult questions. Questions that virologists and NIH officials have been able to ignore and deflect, to mislead the global public since the pandemic’s beginning over four years ago.
There is a risk, however, that investigators will be content with laying blame exclusively at the feet of Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance. Making Peter Daszak the fall guy would fail to hold accountable the scientists and institutional funders who enabled his reckless research in Wuhan.
Whatever responsibility Daszak and researchers in Wuhan may bear for the pandemic, some of the most prominent officials and science institutions in biomedical research funded and promoted these experiments. Some of those very same officials then consistentlymisled the public about the possibility that research funded by US agencies may have contributed to the creation of SARS-CoV-2.
A day before Daszak testified, Vanity Fair reported on a previously unseen congressional deposition of University of North Carolina virologist, Ralph Baric. Baric is widely touted as the world’s leading coronavirus virologist and is known for having created techniques for synthesizing novel viruses, including coronaviruses.
Baric is also known for his scientific collaborations with WIV which was also engineering chimeric viruses. In fact, emails show that he helped ghostwrite an essay, widely circulated in the first months of the pandemic, that accused people of promoting a “conspiracy theory” that the pandemic could have started from a Wuhan lab accident.
“Don’t want to be cited in as having commented prior to submission,” Baric emailed the essay’s authors. After requesting that his help be hidden, Baric then submitted text in track changes. “I think the community needs to write these editorials and I thank you for your efforts.”
In 2018, the year before SARS-CoV-2 first infected humans, Baric, Daszak and WIV researchers collaborated on a research proposal for a Department of Defense project known as DEFUSE. The DEFUSE project proposed creating a chimeric virus with features remarkably similar to those of SARS-CoV-2. The Pentagon turned down the project, but speculation remains that the research could still have been done.
Recent documents released through a freedom of information request make clear that Daszak intended some of the DEFUSE work creating chimeric viruses to happen at the WIV. This would have cut time and costs, but increased the danger of a lab accident as those studies would have been carried out in substandard BSL2 biosafety conditions.
Baric responded to this suggestion, noting that in the United States “these recombinant SARS CoV are studied under BSL3, not BSL2”. Researchers in the US, Baric warned, would “likely freak out” if they knew scientists at the WIV were playing around with such viruses under inadequate BSL2 conditions.
These discussions took place roughly eighteen months before a novel coronavirus outbreak was detected but a few miles from the WIV. But the emails were hidden from the public until just a few months ago.
Another uncovered email from Baric to Daszak reveals that Baric continued to worry about substandard biosafety standards at the WIV long after the pandemic began. “You believe this was appropriate containment if you want but don’t expect me to believe it,” Baric wrote to Daszak, in May 2021. “Moreover, don’t insult my intelligence by trying to feed me this load of BS.”
In a private deposition earlier this year to the Subcommittee, Baric reiterated his concerns about substandard biosafety standards at the WIV, testifying that a Wuhan lab leak cannot be ruled out “because they work at BSL-2.”
Baric’s testimony contained another critical insight.
Asked whether EcoHealth Alliance engaged in gain-of-function virus work at the WIV prior to the pandemic, he vacillated over interpretations of the term “gain-of-function.” The Obama White House ended this type of dangerous research in 2014, much to Baric’s chagrin, although there were certain loopholes, and the moratorium was lifted in 2017.
Why has Baric, the world’s foremost expert on coronaviruses, been privately outraged, yet publicly silent about dangerous biosafety standards at the WIV and his scientific view that a lab accident might have caused the pandemic? Why has he not explained his personal knowledge and involvement in the DEFUSE proposal? This curious silence, alongside his testimony contradicting Fauci’s sworn congressional testimony, leave many questions unanswered.
Why did fifteen US government agencies know about the DEFUSE proposal to engineer a dangerous virus much like SARS-CoV-2, but fail to alert the public, forcing someone inside the Defense Department to leak it to the media?
Why has the Office of National Intelligence continued to defy President Biden’s order to release specific intelligence data, including evidence that three WIV employees fell ill with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019?
Why have US intelligence services still not explained allegations that the CIA bribed its own analysts to alter their assessment of the origins of the virus?
These – and many, many more – are all unresolved questions that Peter Daszak cannot answer, meaning responsibility begins, but does not end with him.
Does the Democrats’ harsh questioning of Daszak mean that we have reached a turning point in the investigation of COVID’s origins? Over the last four years, influential scientists colluded to mislead the public and labeled anyone digging up facts and emails as a “conspiracy theorist”—even targeting academic critics by filing grievances with their universities. They were aided in this by a mainstream media that provided distorted reporting ignoring inconvenient facts to buttress those experts’ preferred narratives.
This cannot continue. The jig is up.
Most of the global public have long thought that a lab accident is the most parsimonious explanation for the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Along with a few prominent experts, people outside of academia were never convinced by the incessant deluge of misleading media narratives. Nor should they have been.
The notion that anyone and everyone was a “conspiracy theorist” for asking obvious questions about the outbreak of a novel coronavirus a few miles from a laboratory studying coronaviruses will likely be remembered as one of the original sins of the COVID era. It is made all the more glaring by the fact that, in 2018, US Embassy staff in China twice warned Washington officials that the WIV’s “work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.”
Anthony Fauci will soon appear again before Congress, presenting another opportunity for him to dodge questions about COVID’s origin as he has in the past. But once Fauci is sworn in, both Republicans and Democrats will have the opportunity to give the public what they deserve: a ruthless, transparent inquiry into how this pandemic began.
Anything less than full transparency will embolden researchers and their overseers to continue reckless research funded by institutions which continue to shirk accountability and circle the wagons to protect themselves, rather than us.
Alternatively, Congress can lob softball questions at Fauci, allow Daszak to be the fall guy, and declare fake victory in another public charade that will convince no one.
David Robertson recently obtained a PhD in the History of Science Program at Princeton University. He has previously written about COVID-19 for The Washington Post, The BMJ, The Boston Globe, STAT, and The American Journal of Public Health.’
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0872 DOWN .0016
USA/ YEN 154,67 UP 0.372NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2669 DOWN .0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3629 UP .0031 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 31 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.50 PTS OR .08%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 302.82 PTS OR 1.09%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.61 %
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 302.82 OR 1.09%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.50 PTS OR 0.08%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.51%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 534.53 PTS OR 1.39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2384.95
silver:$29.70
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.18 UP 6 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2191 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2254)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.19 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.918…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 0 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.350% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.4496 DOWN 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.770 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2374.96
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.50
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 13.48 PTS OR 0.29%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 152.92 PTS OR 0.82%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 14.19 PTS OR .17 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 123.50 OR 1.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 214.78 PTS OR 0.61 PTS
WTI Oil price 79.22 12EST/
Brent Oil: 83.15 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.00 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 8/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4335 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.093 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0869 DOWN 0.0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2672 DOWN 0.0016 DOWN 16 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.107 UP 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .919%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.33 UP 1.033/ YEN DOWN 103 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3612 UP 0014 //CDN dollar DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.36
Brent OIL: 83.37
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.376
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS PTS to 4.518%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 4.793
USA dollar index: 104.37 UP 16 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 24 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.96 UP 0 AND 11//100 roubles
GOLD 2,381.55 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.68 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 38.62 PTS OR 0..097 %
NASDAQ DOWN 38.23 PTS OR 0.21 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.40 DOWN .05PTS OR 0.048%
GLD: $220.03 DOWN .86 OR 0.039%
SLV/ $27.06 DOWN ,06 OR 0.22%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Pause After Dow Briefly Touches Historic 40,000
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 04:01 PM
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above the historic 40,000 mark in late morning and early afternoon trading. Euphoria was high as bulls celebrated Dow 40,000. This week’s gains across broad equity indexes were primarily driven by a cooler April CPI print and dismal retail data on Wednesday, along with cooling Philly Fed data, surprisingly weak home-building activity, and a flat industrial production report on Thursday. The macro-intensive week puts the economy potentially on a soft-landing approach, with the Federal Reserve likely to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. However, around 1300 ET, broad selling pressure hit US equity indexes, pushing them flat to red for the session. The Dow has since lost the 40,000 mark.
The S&P 500 flirted with the 5,300 level for most of the session. Walmart surged to a record as earnings guided higher as wealthy consumers traded down to the big box retailer, driving sales higher.
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co told Bloomberg that the stock market experienced a breakout to all-time highs this week, though it might be time for a short-term “breather” before further gains are seen.
The GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings short squeezes by Roaring Kitty faded into the end of the week.
Long-short hedge funds were hit hard on Monday and Tuesday as the most shorted stocks, including meme stocks like GME and AMC, surged higher. However, as the rally in these heavily shorted stocks reversed, hedge funds have managed to recover most of their recent losses.
“Our HF VIP vs. Most short (GSPRHVMS Index) is +215bps today, now down only -2.5% in the last five days. As of Tuesday, this was down as much as -12%. This feels much more orderly (Unwinds of macro hedges),” Goldman’s Chloe Garber wrote in a midday note.
Here are some of Garber’s key observations in markets today via the bank’s trading desk:
All micro today: WMT +6% on EBIT upside and sales at the high end of the range; DE -3% on a Q2 beat but full year cut; UAA (+66bps) went from -15% to green on the day… shorted name/ one of the worst guides of the EPS season so far. Goldman thinks the stock went green because ppl aware of the consumer pressures at this point.
45% of the total market volume so far today is in <$1 stocks (CRKN, GWAV, FFIE, SINT stick out specifically. This compares to YTD average of ~12% for <$1 stocks. Clearly a knock-on effect associated w/ meme stock activity.
Volumes elevated today +30% vs the rest of the week, with S&P top of book tracking higher as well. The floor is skewed +8% better to buy today led largely by LO buying.
LOs most active in tech and macro products on the buy side, vs selling cons discretionary. HFs also much better buyers with demand concentrated in macro products, HC, Industrials, and Tech. HFs are selling Fins, staples, and Energy.
The macro-intensive week has sent the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to its lowest level since September 2022, as economic data increasingly prints to the downside as the economy slows.
After all this data, yields on 10-year US Treasuries are marginally higher on the session, trading around 4.37%.
Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance said, “Breaking the 40,000 barrier is a big psychological boost for the bulls as round numbers hold special significance in people’s hearts and minds.”
Goldman’s Chris Hussey writes in a midday note, “As for markets, the equity market continues to like what it’s seeing in the data — data that is pointing to a decidedly ‘soft’ landing and not the ‘strong’ landing that many had started to worry about through March.”
Interest-rate swaps showed traders have priced in just two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year…
The gap between 2-10 year yields inverted further, approaching the 200-day moving average of around 41bps.
“The re-establishment of a disinflation trend in the coming months should allow the Fed to start easing policy in September,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note.
Taking a look at GS’ latest earning results as 88% of total S&P 500 market cap has reported:
60% beat earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 48%) and 10% of companies missed earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 13%). Consensus expected EPS to grow by 3% at the start of 1Q reporting season. With reporting season almost complete, EPS growth year/year is tracking at +6%.
Chart of the day via GS are energy companies saw the largest increase in AI mentions on earnings call vs the prior quarter.
Let’s not forget while this is happening…
Dow hits 40,000 on the day the Citi economic surprise index dumps to the lowest level since Sept 2022
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44.8K Views
The Vix has tumbled to its lowest intraday level since December.
Bloomberg outlines one of the most notable Vix option trades today:
A VIX trader seemingly bought a 22/47.50 call spread expiring Aug. 21 in a 1×2 ratio 20,000 times
Paid $0.36 per position
VIX approached 12 midday
Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that persistent inflation will surprise markets, which is an ominous sign for corporate bond markets.
Ending with S&P500’s daily RSI approach ‘overbought’ levels…
It’s all or nothing for Dow 40,000. Will the level be sustained, or is this a ‘kiss of death’?
END
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
Industrial Production Disappoints, Manufacturing Contracts As Downward Revisions Continue
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 09:26 AM
US industrial production was unchanged MoM in April (weaker than the modest 0.1% increase expected) and following a downward revision in March from +0.4% to +0.1% MoM. The downward revision and weak print left IP down 0.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
11 of the last 13 months have seen negative downward revisions to Industrial Production…
Source: Bloomberg
Capacity Utilization fell further to 78.4%…
Source: Bloomberg
Manufacturing was even worse with a 0.3% decline MoM (worse than expected) dragging production down 0.5% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly the 4.0% GDP-inspiring data many had hoped for.
END
US Housing Starts/Permits Ugly In April After Huge Revisions
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 08:52 AM
Despite a plunge in sentiment and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected Starts and Permits to increase in April.
They were half right, but both missed bigly – as Starts rose 5.7% MoM (below the +7.6% exp), up from a downwardly revised 16.8% plunge in March; Permits dropped 3.0% MoM (well below the +0.9% exp), but better than the downwardly revised 5.0% drop in March.
Source: Bloomberg
The downward revision for March meant it saw the largest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns.
Single- and Multi-Family Permits both dropped in April (-0.8% and -9.1% respectively) while Rental Unit Starts surged 31.4% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
The Multifamily start jump was off COVID lockdown lows…
Single family permits down to 976K SAAR from 984K and the lowest since August
Multifamily permits down to 408K SAAR from 449K and the lowest since Oct 2020
Finally, just what will homebuilders do now that expectations for 2024 rate-cuts have collapsed?
Source: Bloomberg
The number of completed single-family homes climbed to a 1.09 million annualized rate, the most since November 2022. That may explain the softer advance in new groundbreaking activity… but construction employment is at record highs?
Source: Bloomberg
One thing is for sure, a surge in mortgage rates back above 7% chilled homebuilder sentiment dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
Is Powell trying to engineer a slow motion crash in housing to lower OER and this CPI?
END
Jobless Claims Decline After Last Week’s Big Surge Amid New York Chaos
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 08:38 AM
After the prior week’s big surprise jump in jobless claims, analysts expect a decline this week back into the lowest-in-forty-years range once again… and they were right as 222,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week (down from a revised 232k the prior week)…
Source: Bloomberg
This week saw claims plunge in New York…
…reversing the prior week’s massive surge in New York…
How does anyone believe these numbers?
Continuing claims remained glued around the 1.8mm range (1.794mm – slightly above 1.78mm exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
The BLS data remains completely decoupled from reality still…
Source: Bloomberg
Will this all change in November (depending who wins?)
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
why beef prices are so high….low herds and high grain prices
(zero hedge)
Tyson Foods CEO Unsure When Nation’s Collapsing Beef Herd Will Reverse
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15, 2024 – 06:40 PM
Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King spoke at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in Toronto on Wednesday, expressing much uncertainty about when US ranchers will rebuild tight cattle herds meaningfully.
Reuters was the first to report King’s comments at BMO’s farm conference. He stated ranchers had been pressured in recent years to offload cattle due to high grain costs and drought, which, in return, sent the nation’s beef cattle herd plunging to the lowest in more than half a century.
King provided some encouraging news, citing slightly lower grain costs and improved grazing conditions in the Midwest as factors in increasing the US herd. However, he noted that a high-interest rate environment is a significant headwind.
All in all, King’s comments did not provide confidence that the nation’s beef cattle herd would reverse from seven-decade lows as ranches continue offloading cows to slaughterhouses. The latest figures from the US Department of Agriculture show that the nation’s cattle herd is 87.2 million head (as of Jan. 1), the lowest level since 1951. Data from USDA in the chart below only goes back to 1974.
Shrinking herds means fewer cows, as the latest slaughter price per 100 pounds is around $186, the highest ever and in breakout territory.
We have explained that ranches have been culling more cows for several years because of droughts, surging feed costs, and high interest rates.
This perfect storm has sent beef prices at the supermarket to record highs.
Lane Broadbent, president of KIS Futures Inc. in Oklahoma City, told Bloomberg earlier this year that herds aren’t expected to rebound before at least 2026.
We suspect retail prices will go higher until demand destruction is achieved. Seasonally, outdoor cookouts ignite an upswing in beef demand in the coming weeks.
Can the Fed just print more beef? Oh wait, no, but you know who can: Bill Gates.
end
WHAT A MESS FOR FLORIDA
owners are dumping condos due to huge assessments
MISH SHEDLOCK
Florida Condo Owners Dump Units Over Six-Figure Special Assessments
Condo inventory for sale in South Florida has more than doubled since the first quarter of last year, to more than 18,000 units. While the sharp rise in Florida home insurance costs is driving some to sell, most of the units on the market are in buildings 30 years or older. Under the new law, buildings must pass milestone structural inspections no later than 30 years after they are built.
In Miami, about 38% of the housing stock is condos, the highest of any major metropolitan area in the U.S., according to Zillow. Of those buildings, nearly three-quarters are at least 30 years old. For those that have large repairs looming, many owners are scrambling to sell before Jan. 1 when building reserves must be fully funded to be in compliance with the law.
“I think this is just the beginning,” said Greg Main-Baillie, an executive managing director at real-estate firm Colliers, who oversees 40 condo renovation projects across the state.
Owners are struggling to find all-cash buyers because mortgage lenders are increasingly unwilling to take on the risk associated with these units. “It’s not the buyers that aren’t qualifying,” said Craig Studnicky, chief executive at ISG World. “It’s the buildings that aren’t qualifying.”
State law previously allowed condos to waive reserve funding year after year, leading many buildings, including the nearly 50-year-old Cricket Club, to keep next to nothing in their coffers. Now, about 40 units in the building of 220 are listed for sale but are seeing little interest.
“These units are practically being given away,” said Sari Papir, a retired real-estate agent who has lived in the Cricket Club with her partner Shaul Szlaifer since 2018. “Even if we found a buyer, what could we buy with the pennies we’d receive for our unit?”
Some are worried developers may already be purchasing condos in the building for a potential takeover, where a developer tries to gain control of a building to knock it down and build a newer, more luxurious one. These condo terminations are happening up and down the state’s coastline. While the rules can vary by building, if enough people vote to sell their units, the others have to follow along.
No Way to Escape the Assessment
Those who cannot sell and don’t have the special assessment, will be evicted and their units seized for whatever the Associations can get for them.
South Florida listings have doubled in the past year to over 18,000. Few of those units will sell, and those that do sell will be at a huge haircut.
The Journal noted the plight of Ivan Rodriguez who liquidated his 401K to buy a condo for $190,000. He then faced a $134,000 special assessment. Eventually he sold the unit for $110,000.
Got the Insurance Blues?
Auto insurance is up more than 20 percent from a year ago. In many places, private home insurance isn’t available at all. Consumers are steaming.
Car insurance is on an amazing run. For 13 straight months, insurance is up at least 1.0 percent. For 20 straight months car insurance is up at least 0.7 percent.
Home insurance, if you can get it at all from any private insurer, is also rising at a fast clip.
If you live in a flood zone, hurricane zone, or fire zone, insurance may be very difficult to get.
Proposition 103 Backfires, State Farm to Cancel 72,000 California Policies
Citing wildfire risk, State Farm will not renew policies on 30,000 homes and 42,000 business in California. Blame the state, not insurers.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP NEWS
Joe Biden Invokes Executive Privilege Over Special Counsel Recordings
THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024 – 10:05 AM
After the DOJ stonewalled over surrendering an audio recording of Special Counsel Robert Hur’s interview with President Joe Biden over his handling of classified documents, the White House has invoked executive privilege to block House Republicans from obtaining it.
On Wednesday, Attorney General Merrick Garland requested that Biden assert executive privilege over the recordings following a subpoena from the House Judiciary and Oversight committees.
“Because of the President’s longstanding commitment to protecting the integrity, effectiveness, and independence of the Department of Justice and its law enforcement investigations, he has decided to assert executive privilege over the recordings,” said White House counsel Ed Siskel in a letter obtained by The Hill.
The Feb. 27 subpoena requested copies of notes, audio files, video and transcripts related to Hur’s probe, and had a deadline of March 7.
“Americans expect equal justice under the law and DOJ is allowing the Bidens to operate above it,” House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said in an April statement. “Special Counsel Hur’s report outlined that classified documents Joe Biden stashed for years relate to countries where his family cashed in on the Biden brand.”
In response to a request for audio of what author Mark Zwonitzer recorded while interviewing Biden, whose two memoirs he wrote, Assistant AG Carlos Felipe Uriarte said there is no need for the department to hand it over because the committees also have transcripts of the interviews.
“To go further by producing the audio files would compound the likelihood that future prosecutors will be unable to secure this level of cooperation,” Uriarte wrote.
“They might have a harder time obtaining consent to an interview at all. It is clearly not in the public interest to render such cooperation with prosecutors and investigators less likely in the future.”
Uriarte then reiterated that the DOJ has provided ample evidence to the committees.
Hur’s 345-page report concluded that no charges should be brought against Biden due to cognitive decline.
“We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,”Hur wrote.
Hur cited 2017 conversations between Biden and Zwontizer, which Hur described as “painfully slow, with Mr. Biden struggling to remember events and straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries.
END
Hunter Biden Loses Bid To Halt Tax Evasion Court Proceedings As 9th Circuit Dismisses Appeal
Hunter Biden lost his bid to halt his tax evasion district court proceedings in California on Wednesday after the Ninth Circuit declined to hear his appeal.
District Judge Mark Scarsi denied Mr. Biden’s motion for a stay of proceedings in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California pending the outcome of his appeal. The stay had been requested on May 10 after Mr. Biden filed his interlocutory appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.
On Wednesday, the Ninth Circuit panel ruled in favor of the special counsel and dismissed Mr. Biden’s appeal.
This rendered moot a motion filed by Mr. Biden’s lawyers on Tuesday asking the judge for an expedited hearing on his motion to halt proceedings or, alternatively, for the judge to consider his written motion without hearing oral arguments.
“Because the panel’s order moots Mr. Biden’s motion, the Court grants the application to rule on shortened time and denies the motion,” Judge Scarsi wrote in his order on Wednesday.
Judge Scarsi’s order stated that his prior orders and the trial schedule would remain in place, and that the court would hear any further requests to modify the pre-trial schedule at a conference on May 29.
Mr. Biden, who had argued that the district court’s jurisdiction had been divested once he filed his interlocutory appeal, filed his motion for a stay after the judge wrote in a May 9 order that failing to do so would be “at his own peril.”
Hunter Biden’s Problems ‘Are Entirely of His Own Making’
Special Counsel David Weiss, who is prosecuting the case on behalf of the government, opposed Mr. Biden’s bid to halt proceedings while waiting to hear the outcome from the Ninth Circuit. He argued that any “problems” with scheduling conflicts in both Mr. Biden’s California tax evasion case and his Delaware gun charges case “are entirely of his own making.”
In his brief asking for an expedited hearing filed on Tuesday, Mr. Biden’s lawyers told Judge Scarsi that he wasn’t aware that failing to file a motion to stay pending appeal would be “at his own peril,” and that he promptly filed his motion to stay the next day after the judge’s order came down.
In requesting an expedited hearing, Angela Machala and Abbe Lowell, the lawyers representing Mr. Biden, had sought to address scheduling conflicts in pretrial proceedings that threatened to emerge due to potential appeals court proceedings and an upcoming trial on June 3 in his Delaware case.
The lawyers argued that Mr. Biden was not to blame for the overlap in the separate court proceedings.
Specifically, Mr. Biden’s lawyers asked that a hearing on his motion to stay take place before a pretrial conference scheduled for May 29 to comply with court rules on when hearings can be set.
This potential conflict was rendered moot by the Ninth Circuit’s ruling on Wednesday. Similarly, the Third Circuit, where Mr. Biden had taken his Delaware appeal, also dismissed his motions.
Mr. Biden had previously argued that the district court had been divested of its jurisdiction when he filed an appeal with the Ninth Circuit. This claim was disputed by the special counsel.
On May 9, Judge Mark Scarsi stated that the court “has not vacated the pretrial schedule, and absent a request for [a stay], Mr. Biden ignores the Court’s orders at his own peril.”
In response, Mr. Biden filed his motion for stay pending appeal the next day. In that filing, he maintained his position that the court had been divested of jurisdiction by the act of filing his interlocutory appeal.
Mr. Biden’s lawyers argued that he was not at fault for “creating the crisis” that led to their requesting the stay, nor did the scheduling conflict come about “as a result of excusable neglect.”
In contrast, the special counsel sought to counter these arguments on Tuesday, arguing that “the defendant’s ‘hardship’ is one he has created for himself.”
The Epoch Times contacted Mr. Biden’s attorneys for comment.
END
KING REPORT
The King Report May 16, 2024 Issue 7244
Independent View of the News
As widely expected, and forecasted, April CPI was a tad better than expected: 0.3% m/m & 3.4% y/y, 0.4% m/m & 3.6% y/y initially forecasted. April Core CPI was the expected 0.3% m/m & 3.6% y/y.
Yes, Virginia, the above statement is contradictory and nonsensical; but that is Wall Street. It’s just like the EPS scam where companies via their Street conduits issue EPS that they usually can easily beat.
Street economists and pundits issued April CPI forecasts and then later forecasted that April CPI would beat their initial forecasts. So, stocks and bonds rally on the nonsensical ‘beat’ and the Street is happy.
Food at Home somehow declined 0.2% on a 0.3% decline in Bakery Products, a 0.7% drop in Meats, Poultry, Fish and Eggs; and a 0.8% decline in Fruits & Veggies. Very few consumers will believe this!
Remember all the hoopla about the BLS fooling with ‘coffee’ prices? Somehow the BLS got ‘Coffee’ to DECLINE 0.6% m/m (Table 2) – despite the surge in coffee prices in April! July Coffee, the front month, ended March at 188.05; it hit a peak of 245.50 (+30.056% from 3/28) on April 18; and closed at 216.00 on April 30. Despite the huge increase in Coffee in April; the BLS has it -0.6% m/m! It’s fortuitous that the BLS showed declines in Food at Home because Gasoline increased 2.8% m/m and Motor Vehicle Insurance rose 1.8%. Full CPI report at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Bloomberg’s Anan Wong (Economist): April CPI Is Soft, But Details Aren’t Reassuring There are still signs of sticky inflation…
US Core CPI Cools for the First Time in Six Months in Relief for Fed – BBG 8:45 ET (And Street experts proclaimed that this means a July cut is on the table! One month of ‘good’ Core CPI data trumps six months of ‘bad’ Core CPI data on The Street and perhaps in Jerry World.)
@RealEJAntoni: Just to reiterate: Inflation is not trending to 2.0%, it was never trending to 2.0%, and it won’t begin trending to 2.0% until the Fed stops financing the Treasury’s multi-trillion-dollar deficits; everyone who told you we were moving towards the 2.0% target knowingly lied: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1790744011226972269
NYC and San Francisco Inflation Jump to Year High as US Cools – BBG Prices highest in a year or more in four US metropolitan areas Housing and energy costs drove inflation in NYC, Philadelphia The annual rate reached 4.1% in Philadelphia, 4% in St. Louis and 3.8% in both New York and San Francisco — all above the US average — according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wed…
Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Index hit all-time intraday highs on this nonsense. Of course, Powell has already signaled that he is dying to cut rates to keep Trump at bay. So, the usual suspects will rejoice and buy stuff on anything, no matter how nonsensical or insignificant, that might induce Powell to cut rates – even though Core CPI is running at a 3.6% annual clip!
Bonds rallied sharply because April Retail Sales were flat m/m when +0.4% was forecasted by Street experts and economists. March was revised to 0.6% from 0.7%. Ex-Autos Sales were the expected 0.2%; but March was revised to 0.9% from 1.1%. Sales Ex-Autos & Gas were -0.1% m/m with +0.2% expected. March was revised to 0.7% from 1.0%.
@zerohedge: Biden: Calling on Grocery Chains to Lower Prices for Consumers (typical socialist!) Consumers call on Joe Biden to stop issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days
Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashari said the Fed should pay more attention to ACTUAL INFLATION!
Kashkari also said: Consumption is a lot higher than I expected; the housing market is more resilient than I expected; I see a lot of pent-up housing demand; and the Fed needs to wait ‘a while longer’ to see where inflation is headed.
Kashkari said the big question is: How restrictive is Fed policy? C’mon man! With stocks at all-time highs and gold plus cryptos soaring, you know the answer! You just cannot admit the Fed is too loose!
Could Trump Take Over the Fed? It’s a Scary Thought: Bill Dudley (ex-GS econ, ex-NY Fed Pres) It wouldn’t be easy. That said, it’s a truly frightening prospect… (As opposed to Wall St controlling it?)
Oil rallied moderately and gasoline rallied sharply on lower EIA inventories than expected. Crude -2.508m bbl, -600k bbl exp.; Gasoline -235k, +1.0m exp. Production was unchanged.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (-0.5318059 as of 5/10/24) is at its easiest level since -0.5412242 on January 21, 2022. Yet Powell et al believe financial conditions are restrictive!
Fed rate hikes began in March 2022. Stocks and gold tell us that despite the Fed rate hikes, the Fed remains too loose! As we keep harping, the Fed is ignoring the lesson of the ‘70s. Interest rate hikes alone do NOT halt inflation. You must reduce reserve growth. This is what Volcker proved.
ESMs traded mostly positive but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they went vertical two minutes before the official 8:30 ET release of the April CPI Report. ESMs then traded in a 26-handle range until they commenced another explosive rally at 10:30 ET.
ESMs hit 5330.25 one minute before the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. After a retreat to 5322.75 at 14:33 ET, ESMs plodded higher until they popped up at 15:52 ET. ESMs hit a daily high of 5337.25 at 15:56 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds (USMs +1 10/32 at NYSE close) rallied robustly on a ‘good’ April CPI Report. Fangs and trading sardines led the rally, of course.
Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied only 16.30 points. Gold, industrial metals, and gasoline soared; Oil rallied moderately; the dollar got hammered. Stocks are bubbling up again. There will be hell to pay in the not-too-distant future for the excesses that are occurring now.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will stocks bubble up until they are exhausted or will something prick the latest bubble?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5294.39 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5311.76; 5263.26
@amuse: DEBATE: Biden’s debate challenge to Trump came with fine print:
• No live audience • RFK Jr. is banned • Trump’s mic is muted when Biden speaks • Only hosted by NPR, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, or CBS • Moderated by Democrat-aligned reporter
@TrumpDailyPosts: Crooked Joe Biden is the WORST debater I have ever faced – He can’t put two sentences together! Crooked is also the WORST President in the history of the United States, by far. It’s time for a debate so that he can explain to the American People his highly destructive Open Border Policy, new and ridiculous EV Mandates, the allowance of Crushing Inflation, High Taxes, and his really WEAK Foreign Policy, which is allowing the World to “Catch on Fire.” I am Ready and Willing to Debate Crooked Joe at the two proposed times in June and September. I would strongly recommend more than two debates and, for excitement purposes, a very large venue, although Biden is supposedly afraid of crowds – That’s only because he doesn’t get them. Just tell me when, I’ll be there. “Let’s get ready to Rumble!! – Donald Trump Truth Social 08:43 AM 05/15/24
@Geiger_Capital: Do people understand what Biden just did? He is ditching the debates held by the bipartisan debate commission and creating his own so that he can remove RFK Jr, who qualifies under the traditional bipartisan rules. This is literally the opposite of Democracy. Biden is bailing on the normal presidential debates run by the bipartisan commission so that he can set the rules, remove the crowd and most importantly… remove RFK Jr. If Trump did this, they’d call him a dictator. @TheFirstonTV: WATCH – Joe Biden nearly face-plants (again) outside the US Capitol. https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1790784305586676153
Commodities Hit Highest in a Year to Pose New Inflation Threat – BBG 16:25 ET Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index… inched up Wednesday to the highest reading since April 2023…
US BLS Says CPI Data Inadvertently Posted 30 Min. Early Today – BBG 19:56 ET
Today – Stocks are bubbling up; so, there is no telling where and when the bubble will go. However, stocks are egregiously overbought; a spirited retreat can occur at any instance. Just be careful out there!
Historical patterns suggest that after some type of retrenchment, stocks will zoom higher in the summer on light volume. If this action transpires, and summer economic data shows weakness, the odds are extremely high of a severe tumble in the autumn.
NQMs are +29.25; ESMs are +5.00; USMs are +12/32; and Gold is +3.10 at 20:35 ET.
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.78m; Apr Housing Starts 1.42m; Permits 1.48m; May Phil Fed Business Outlook 8; Apr Import Pirce Index 0.3% m/m & 0.4% y/y, ex-Petro 0.1%; Export Price Index 0.1% m/m & -1.1% y/y; Apr Industrial Production 0.1% m/m, Mfg. Production 0.1%, Capacity Utilization 78.4%; Gov Waller 10:15 ET, SF Fed Pres Daly 11:15 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5150; 100-day MA: 5026; 150-day MA: 4835; 200-day MA: 4730 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,793; 100-day MA: 38,492; 150-day MA: 37,274, 200-day MA: 36,566 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5308.15) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4619.92 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5263.90 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5155.40 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5273.07 triggers a sell signal
@townhallcom: Biden gets confused while telling a story and decides to abandon ship: “I remember in Atlanta, Half Moon Bay and Monterey Park this guy said… get over it …Anyways, I’ll be good…”https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1790536149129121842
Trump trial’s OJ glove moment: Cohen tape undercuts prosecutors’ main story to jurors This follows a pattern of weaknesses in Bragg’s case, which has been consistently undercut by other witnesses. But if the tapes don’t fit: they must acquit… When their star witness Michael Cohen played a tape he secretly made of his ex-boss and client, the recording appeared to show that Trump was unaware of key details, seemingly aloof to a plan that Cohen himself admitted he had concocted to make the so-called “hush money” payments… one part of the recording appears to show Michael Cohen, not Trump, was orchestrating the method of payment. According to the audio, Trump appears unaware of his fixer’s methods of financing the payments… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/trump-trials-oj-moment-cohen-tape-undercuts-prosecutors-main-story-jurors
@sentdefender: The Shooter who attempted to Assassinate the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico earlier today has been Identified by Slovakian Media as a 71-Year-Old Poet and Member of the Pro-Western Progressive Party, Juraj Cintula from the Town of Levice. Cintula had previously been Openly Critical on social media of PM Fico and his Government.
@Law360: The White House is standing by Adeel Mangi’s nomination for the Third Circuit despite the path to confirmation being unclear and the vast opposition he’s been facing.
@ChuckRossDC: The White House… made such a big deal about Mangi being Muslim that now they can’t pull his nomination even though he’s toast for fear of upsetting swing state Muslims.
Flood of Fake Science Forces Multiple Journal Closures In the past two years, Wiley has retracted more than 11,300 papers that appeared compromised, according to a spokesperson, and closed four journals. It isn’t alone: At least two other publishers have retracted hundreds of suspect papers each. Several others have pulled smaller clusters of bad papers… it threatens the legitimacy of the nearly $30 billion academic publishing industry and the credibility of science as a whole… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/flood-of-fake-science-forces-multiple-journal-closures/ar-BB1mmDKS
harveyorganblog.com 
