GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $21.30 TO $2434.00
SILVER PRICE UP $1.28 TO $32.30
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2424.15
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31,54
We have them on the run. even though the seller of naked calls on gold is the FRBNY, all of the other central banks are taking them to task as they take delivery on a T + 2 basis. First time in 40 years i can safely say the comex is in trouble. expect extreme volatility as the fed fights back with toothless paper
Bitcoin morning price:$67,231 UP 1115 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $69,583 UP 3467 dollars
Platinum price closing DOWN $28.00 TO $1056.30
Palladium price; UP $26.60 AT $1031.25
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 15 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 20 May 2024 02:58:21 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3303,66 UP 17.48 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,303.66 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1908.75 UP 7.61 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2233.35 UP 12.55 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,412.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/17/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 05/21/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 199
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 187
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 13
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 210 210
MONTH TO DATE: 2,169
JPMorgan stopped 0/210
FOR MAY2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 210 NOTICES FOR 21000 OZ or 0.6531 TONNE
total notices so far: 2169 contracts for 216900 Oz (6.7465 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 159 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 795,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5918 for 29.590 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $21.30
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.18 TONNES INTO THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.54TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.54 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND
SILVER UP $1.28 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.005 M,ILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 418.435 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 418.435 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY MEGA MEGA+ HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,845 CONTRACTS TO 189,454 AND CONTINUING ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $1.37 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 1110 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1115 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.37 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD AN ULTRA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 13,215 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.37.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 2370 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 130,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 29.935 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1150 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 1457 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 DAYS, total 17,702 contracts: OR 88.510 MILLION OZ (1264 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 88.510 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 88.510 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 10,845 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2370 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF 29.345 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 29.935 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 13,215 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1190 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1190 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 159 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 795,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9943 OI CONTRACTS TO 538,700 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1235 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (9943 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $31.70 IN PRICE/FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 20,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS WE MUST ADD THAT DUBIOUS ISSUANCE OF 1084 OI EX FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUES ON FRIDAY WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES RISK OF 3.3716 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 6.790 TONNES PLUS THE DUBIOUS 3.3716 ECH FOR RISK!
NEW STANDING 10.1616 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $31.70 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 14,500 OI CONTRACTS (45.10 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 4557 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 540,025
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,500 CONTRACTS WITH 11,178 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A VERY STRONG SIZED 4557 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,500 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 2241 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4557 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI 11,178/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14,500 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 20,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK//PRIOR
//NEW STANDING /MAY 10.1616 TONNES.
/ 3) MASSIVE LONG-SHORT LIQUIDATION MOSTLY DUE TO SPREADERS WITH THE LARGE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2241 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 59,503 CONTRACTS OR 5,950,300 OZ OR 185.08 TONNES IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4250 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 185.08 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 185.08 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 185.08 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,845 CONTRACTS OI TO 189,145 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2370 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 2370 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2370 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 10,845 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2370 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN AN ULTRA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,215 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE HUGE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 60.03 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $1.37 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.12 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 82.61 PTS OR 0.92%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 282.30 OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.62%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2324 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2409/ Oil UP TO 79.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.84 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9943 CONTRACTS TO 538,790 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.70 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS WITH GOLD’S RAPID RISE!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4557 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4557 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:4557 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 14,500 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4557 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 9943 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.70// FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 2241 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (6.7900 TONNES+ 3.3716 EX FOR RISK/PRIOR) = 10.1616 TONNES ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 6.7900 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 10.1616
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $31.70 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 14,500 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS AND MOST LIKELY ON TODAY’S TRADING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 45.10 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 208 CONTRACTS OR 20,800 OZ ( .646 TONNES) PLUS 3.3716 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK
NEW STANDING: 6.700 TONNES PLUS 3.1716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR = 10.1616
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $31.70
WE HAVE REMOVED 1235 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,735 CONTRACTS OR 1,573,500 (48.94 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 256,384 contracts// fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
MAY 20 MAY GOLD
/ /// THE MAY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 675.171 21 kilobars hsbc . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 00 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 32,335.930 oz hsbc |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 210 notice(s) 21000 OZ 0.6.7495 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 contracts 1400 OZ 0.0435 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2169 notices 216,900 oz 6.7465 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
we have 1 customer deposit:
i)into HSBC 32,335.930 oz
total deposit 32,335.930 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Hsbc 675.171 oz ( 21 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 675.171 0z
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 234 contracts having GAINED 205 contracts.
We had 3 contracts served on FRIDAY, so we gained 208 contracts or 20,800 oz (0.646 Tonnes).
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 611 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 238,493 CONTRACTS.
JULY GAINED 66 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 342
We had 210 contracts filed for today representing 21000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 210 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2169) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY ( 234 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (210 x 100 oz per contract( equals 218,300 OZ OR 6.7000 TONNES. PLUS THE 3.3716 OF EX FOR RISK = 10.1616
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2169x 100 oz + (234 OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (210 x 100 oz which equals 218,300 oz (6.7900 TONNES) PLUS 3.3716 EX FOR RISK = 10.1616 TONNES.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY: 10.1616 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX84XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,566,324.496 48.71 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,496,289.317 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,328,073,702 ( 227.93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,163,215.615 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,761,749 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 177.28 tonnes
179.36 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 20
INITIAL
//2024// THE MAY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 758,451,040 oz cnt jpmorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 545,002.539 OZ manfra |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 598,644.88 OZ loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 159 CONTRACT(S) (795,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 69 contracts (0.345 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5918 Contracts (29.590 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 1 dealer deposit
i)into manfra 545,002.539 oz
total dealer deposit : 545,002/539 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
(i) into loomis 598,664.88 oz
total customer deposit 598,664.88 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129,002million oz/298.325 million or 43.24%
adjustment: 2
dealer to customer brinks 865,042.600
b) customer to dealer//manfra 1024.500
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) out of cnt 177,132.140 oz
ii) out of JPMorgan 581,318.907 oz
total withdrawal 758,451.04 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 64.870MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 298.325 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 228 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 26 CONTRACT(S).
.
We had 0 notices served on FRIDAY so we GAINED 26 contracts or 130,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 57 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 1503
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 8529 CONTRACTS UP TO 152,725
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 159 for 795,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 144,447 mammoth plus
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5918 x 5,000 oz = 29.590 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (228 and the number of notices served upon today 159x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2024 contract month: 5918 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (xxx number of notices served upon today minus (159x 5000 oz of silver standing for the may contract month equates to 29.935 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 29.935 million oz.
There are 65.149 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $21.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.10 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 838.54 TONNES
MAY 17 WITH GOLD UP $31.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
GLD INVENTORY: 838.54 TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $1.28 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.005 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 419.440 MILLION OZ
MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.37 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 868,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 419.440 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;
INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 418.435 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
Schiff Vs. Hanke: Who’s To Blame For Inflation?
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Last week, Peter debated Steve Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, on inflation, the debt crisis, and the future of the dollar. David Lin hosted the debate on The David Lin Report and provided moderation for the event. While Peter and Hanke have their disagreements, both ultimately agree that the United States is in rough fiscal and monetary shape, and terrible monetary policy played a key role in getting it there.
The debate gets off to a fiery start when Peter and Hanke clash on inflation. First, Peter explains the crux of the problem:
“The Federal Reserve that ends up monetizing all that government debt— that is what’s driving the problem. And I think ultimately, as our budget deficits are exploding, it’s going to cause a big loss of confidence in the dollar, in U.S. treasuries. And so as the dollar starts to fall, that puts even more upward pressure on consumer prices because the dollar now has less value internationally.”
The two argue about how to define inflation:
“But that [an increasing money supply] doesn’t just cause inflation. That is inflation. What is being inflated is the money supply. You go back and get an old dictionary. Even in the 70s, you get a dictionary, Webster’s Dictionary, look up inflation and it says ‘an expansion of the money supply.’ And it’s also money and credit. Rising prices are a result, a consequence of inflation. They are not inflation, and they do not cause inflation. They are a byproduct of inflation.”
Peter claims the only way out of the current crisis is for the Fed to lean in even more to taxation via inflation:
“Nobody wants to see government spending cut dramatically. Nobody wants the US to have to honestly default on its debt. … I mean, if they raise taxes on the rich who are already paying a tremendous amount of taxes, I don’t know how much additional revenue they’re likely to get. In fact, they may even lose revenue, depending on how they do it. What we need is consumption-based taxes, like a national sales tax or a higher payroll tax. But no one’s going to vote for that!”
Hanke stresses that inflation comes solely from monetary policy, while Peter emphasizes that fiscal and monetary policy are intertwined:
“The Fed enabled the deficit spending. The Fed should have been more independent. They should have had much higher interest rates. They never should have done quantitative easing. They should be putting pressure on Congress to cut the deficit spending, just like Volcker used to do. They’re not doing it. … It takes two to tango.”
Hanke skewers the political class for deflecting the blame for inflation:
“I’m in a clarifying mood here, and that is that the idea and the propaganda that was put out by the Fed and the White House and the Congress that non-monetary factors caused the inflation problem that we’ve gotten ourselves into. That Putin oil, supply side shocks, all this rubbish— and it’s pure rubbish. What caused it is the explosion in the money supply that went up at the peak, 27% year over year, in early 2021. We’ve never seen it that high before. And as night follows day, when the money supply explodes like that with a long and variable lag, you’ll get inflation.”
Peter thinks it’s too late to stave off a recession, and Americans can feel it:
“I believe we’re in a recession. I just don’t believe a lot of the numbers that we get from the government. I know that the Great Recession of 2008 — it began in December of `07, but they didn’t officially acknowledge it until December of `08. And they went back, and they revised an entire year’s worth of data to show that we had been in a recession for the entire year. And even up until mid-2008, most economists and Wall Street strategists didn’t see a recession coming, even though we were in the middle of the Great Recession. So I think something similar could be going on. And I also think that the weakness in the economy— this stealth recession— is the reason that Biden and Harris are so unpopular.”
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
CHRIS POWELL…
China has its people put a floor under gold price, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-05-18 03:16 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:16a GMT Saturday, May 18, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s “Live from the Vault” program from Kinesis Money that repeated attempts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to knock down the price of gold via sale of futures contracts in New York just continue to feed Chinese demand for real metal as the contracts are converted to deliverable instruments in London.
Maguire asserts that the Fed is now the only central bank that is short gold and that the Chinese government has put a rising floor under the gold price by encouraging its people to acquire the metal as well.
He says the plan for a Russian-advocated “BRICS” gold-based trading currency is being actively tested and has discovered more interest than originally expected.
He adds that there just are not enough commodity trading houses still willing to undertake and stick with short positions on gold to help suppress the price..
The program is 45 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Hot commodity silver outpaces gold as buying gains momentum
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-05-17 16:44 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Sybilla Gross
Bloomberg News
Friday, May 17, 2024
Gold’s record-setting rally may have captured the headlines this year, but it’s silver that’s running harder and faster as the less glamorous metal benefits from robust financial and industrial demand.
Silver has soared by more than a quarter this year, outpacing gold and making it one of the year’s best-performing major commodities. Yet in relative terms, silver is still cheap. It currently takes about 80 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold, compared with the 20-year average of 68. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Incrementum publishes its ‘In Gold We Trust’ report for 2024
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-05-17 05:34 Section: Daily Dispatches
5:32p ICT Friday, May 17, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Incrementum’s “In Gold We Trust” report for 2024 by Ronald P. Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek has been published, capturing the exciting lastd year gold has had and the exciting year it is expected to have. An abridged version is posted in PDF format here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS /
Every country should do this
(monetary metals)
Signed Into Law: Alabama Abolishes Income Taxes On Gold and Silver
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 11:40 AM
(Birmingham, Alabama – May 14, 2024) – Alabama Governor Kay Ivey last week signed a bill that removes all income taxes on capital gains from the sale of gold and silver, enabling the state to take an important step forward in reinforcing sound money principles.
With this move, Alabama joins a growing number of states prioritizing the protection of citizens against the deleterious effects of inflation, currency debasement, and mounting federal debt.
Enactment of Senate Bill 297 makes Alabama the 13th state in the nation that does not impose capital gains taxes on sales of gold and silver.
Under the new law’s provisions, any profits or losses arising from the sale of precious metals, as reported on federal tax returns, will be excluded from the calculation of an Alabama taxpayer’s adjusted gross income (AGI). This measure effectively shields individuals from punitive taxation on transactions involving constitutional forms of currency.
Championed by Senator Tim Melson and Representative Jamie Kiel and backed by the Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange, SB 297 received bipartisan backing in the Alabama Legislature, reflecting widespread recognition of the importance of sound money principles at a time of blistering inflation.
Presenting before the Senate Finance and Taxation Education Committee, Sen. Melson emphasized the historical significance of gold and silver as constitutionally recognized forms of currency.
Melson stated, “Gold and silver have served as pillars of economic stability throughout history and are even mentioned by name in the U.S. Constitution. By eliminating taxes on transactions involving these precious metals, we affirm our commitment to upholding the principles of sound money and protecting the savings of our constituents.”
It is widely known that “gains” realized from sales of precious metals don’t reflect genuine value appreciation, but rather reflect the continual depreciation of the U.S. Dollar. Despite this reality, the Internal Revenue Service takes the position that federal income taxes should be paid on such transactions. And most states find themselves taking this position by default.
Jp Cortez, executive director of the Sound Money Defense League, stressed the importance of Alabama’s proactive stance in the face of inflationary pressures. He remarked, “Inflation erodes the purchasing power of individuals’ savings and undermines economic and social stability. Alabama’s decision to opt-out of this taxation scheme makes it the 13th state in the country to end this tax, with increasingly more states to follow.”
Nebraska passed their own version of this bill earlier this year. Arizona, Arkansas, and Utah approved similar measures in recent years. And Iowa, Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas also considered income tax exemptions in 2024, with several approving the bill across multiple committees and chambers.
Alabama joins Utah, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kentucky as states to have enacted pro-sound money legislation into law so far in 2024.
Additionally, U.S. Congressman Alex Mooney (R-WV) re-introduced the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act last week to eliminate the federal capital gains tax on all gold and silver coins and bullion.
Alabama’s current ranking of 28th in the 2024 Sound Money Index is expected to rise, having passed other sound money bills in the last several years.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT//COPPER AND GOLD
Copper Roars, Gold Soars To Record Highs As Metals Hit “History-Making Mode”
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 06:20 AM
While oil remains oddly muted amid yet another middle-eastern shock, the same can not be said for various precious metals and commodities which are soaring to start the week, and which according to Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith, will make for a lively session in Europe and the US, with flow-through gains on the cards for mining-industry stocks that have already been put on edge as BHP Group bids to swallow (most of) Anglo American.
Copper and gold – the leading lights of the base and precious metals arenas – are in what Lloyd-Smith puts as “history making mode”, as both powered to record highs in early Monday trading. Here’s a handful of things to watch in what could be a compelling week.
- Copper: Everybody’s favorite base metal is benefiting from the fallout from a dramatic short squeeze on the Comex that plays straight into long-standing hype about global deficits to come given the energy transition. Still, some physical indicators remain weak, so watch to see if copper’s prompt spread — which has been mired in an ugly, bearish contango — narrows more this week
- Gold: The Godfather of metals is up +18% YTD and is positioned to challenge $2,500/oz. Its latest leg higher appears to stem from a return to usual drivers: real 10-year Treasury yields are coming off a three-week drop, the longest run in a year. A decent batch of Fedspeak, as well as FOMC minutes will help to set the tone
- Silver: is flexing its muscles with gold, up 12% last week and roaring higher again on Monday. Watch to see if the ratio to gold realigns with the long-standing average. That gauge is now back to ~75 , closer to the ~68 since the start of this millennium
- And finally for good measure, here is nickel too, which while not at an all time high yet, may get there soon.
END
PLATINUM
Platinum Autocat Demand ‘Higher for Longer’ on EV Slowdown
Adrian Ash – Monday, 5/20/2024 11:50
Hydrogen fuel-cell demand in focus, but auto industry ‘sceptical’… A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN in sales of battery-electric vehicles means auto- industry demand for platinum and palladium is holding firm, experts agreed at this May’s Platinum Week in London, but opinion remains split over the potential for hydrogen fuel- cell technology.Besides investment, jewellery and industrial use of platinum, the metal currently finds 2/5ths of its end-user demand each year from autocatalysts to reduce harmful emissions from internal combustion engines. That demand has held firm despite the ‘diesel scandal’ of 2015 hitting sales of diesel-fuel passenger vehicles, due to tighter emissions standards – needing higher loadings of metal on each autocat – plus substitution for platinum of sister-metal palladium in gasoline systems thanks to the dramatic surge in palladium prices which followed the diesel scandal, accelerating on No.1 producer nation Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Looking ahead – and with governments worldwide setting deadlines between 2040 and 2050 for the end of new internal combustion engine (ICE) sales – “Future PGM demand growth will be galvanised by environmental and hydrogen applications,” says the new 2024 supply-and-demand report from refining and tech specialists Johnson Matthey (LON:JMAT).Stronger demand for platinum group metals (PGM) relies on the supply- side of the industry finding and developing new technology uses – a problem not faced by producers of base metals such as copper, nor in gold or silver – agrees Richard Andrew Stewart, chief regional officer Southern Africa for US- listed miner Sibanye Stillwater (JSE:SSW).But for now, the No.1 question among attendees at Platinum Week 2024 in London was about the growth in battery-electric penetration of the vehicles market, he said.”We will have failed if it’s the still the No.1 question in 2025.” As it is, battery-electric sales have slowed “near zero growth” compared to the past decade’s relentless expansion in each of the world’s 3 major auto markets, said Al Bedwell, director of global powertrain analysis at industrial trends consultancy GlobalData (LON:DATA), also speaking Tuesday afternoon to members of the London Platinum & Palladium Market at the trade association’s annual seminar.
China’s EV sales are heading for only 11% growth in 2024 on GlobalData’s outlook, Bedwell said, while the USA continues to suffer from “patchy” charging infrastructure, and Europe is being hit by Germany’s “abrupt removal” of government subsidies for new purchases.”Is the move to electric cars running out of power?” asks UK broadcaster the BBC, pointing to a drop in sales by US- listed manufacturer Tesla (Nasdaq:TLSA) and a slowdown in EV sales at Chinese giant BYD.”We need to buy a lot more EVs to hit climate targets,” the BBC goes on, citing the International Energy Agency’s call for the number of electric vehicles on the world’s roads to rise 10-fold over the next decade.The global slowdown in EV sales growth means “automotive demand [for platinum] is underpinned by a higher-for-longer [internal combustion engine] theme,” says the latest quarterly report from the mining industry’s World Platinum Investment Council, “with 2024 projected to be the strongest year for automotive demand for platinum” – needed for autocatalysts to reduce harmful emissions from diesel engines, and increasingly finding substitution to replace palladium in gasoline engine autocats – “since 2017.”On top of that, WPIC’s latest quarterly report this week followed the move by analysts SFA Oxford – reporting for German refining group Heraeus – to strip out hydrogen-energy demand as a separate line from the wider ‘Other Industrial’ category in its data tables and forecasts.Total industrial demand is forecast to drop 15% by weight in 2024 on WPIC’s forecasts – which use data from specialist analysts Metals Focus – setting the lowest annual total since the Covid crash of 2020, thanks to last year’s capacity expansions in the chemical and glass industries not being repeated in 2024.Against those 33% and 25% drops respectively, the projected 128% jump in demand from the hydrogen industry (excluding fuel-cell vehicles) is dramatic. But even on top of 2023’s 114% rise, this year’s total demand from the hydrogen-energy sector is forecast to offset less than 1/5th of the 2024 drop among all other industrial sectors. Bedwell at GlobalData remains “sceptical” about the future for fuel cell passenger vehicles, telling LPPM seminar attendees on Tuesday that the very low volume of production will likely see just 12,000 FCEVs made worldwide in 2024. PGM refining and tech specialists Johnson Matthey (LON:JMAT) forecast a 50% rise to 15,000 of light-duty hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles for 2024, remaining “minimal” due to the “lack of subsidy support and a persistent shortage of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure [which] appears to have choked production and sales.”SFA Oxford see this year’s total platinum demand from the hydrogen sector “stuttering” and rising by only 1/8th from 2023 – when the sector’s demand more than doubled on SFA’s data – to reach less than 2.8 tonnes in total.Metals Focus’ own forecasts in its PGM Focus put total 2024 hydrogen demand around 3.7 tonnes. That compares with total mine supply of 170 tonnes and a further 51 tonnes coming from recycling.”Total supply is continuing a multi-year downward trend,” says WPIC of the Metals Focus numbers, “with 2024 expected to be the weakest year in our time series from 2013.”Metals Focus forecasts another “deep” deficit of physical platinum supply against demand in 2024, albeit smaller than 2023’s series record deficit. But with large stockpiles helping “offset the impact of this shortfall” they predict the platinum price will remain flat year-on- year.Half of platinum-group metals mining outside of Russia is now making a loss at current prices, Sibanye’s Stewart said. But lower output alone won’t boost prices he believes, because the PGM market is driven instead by technology use, related legislation, and the economic cycle.With gold prices hitting new all-time highs today as silver reaches 2012 levels in US Dollar terms, platinum is currently trading at half its 2008 peak, albeit reaching 12- month highs above $1000 per Troy ounce during Platinum Week. Palladium has meantime fallen by 2/3rds from its New Year 2022 records
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//MONDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.12 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 82.61 PTS OR 0.92%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 282.30 OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.62%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2324 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2409/ Oil UP TO 79.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.84 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2324
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2409
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.12 PTS OR 0.54 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 82.61 PTS OR 0.92%
2. Nikkei closed UP 282.30 PTS OR 0.73 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.37 EURO RISES TO 1.0873 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.969 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.70 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5251/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.807 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.264%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.504
3j Gold at $2431.10//Silver at: 31.45 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 45 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.53
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.70/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.969% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9088 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9881well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.420 UP 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.564 UP 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.820 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.20…(TURKEY)
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1820 UP 5 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise, Commodities Soar After Iran’s President Dies In Helicopter Crash
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 07:53 AM
Futures are higher across the board as investors shift their focus from macro to micro, following a rollercoaster week that saw stocks slide then reverse higher after a soggy CPI and retail sales print, to close at an all time high and the Dow above 40,000. AI is in focus this week with NVDA earnings on deck, plus we will see a relaunch of sell-side industry conferences. As of 7:30am, S&P futures are up 0.1% and poised to open near record highs on Monday, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% as investors looked past the inflation implications of a commodity rally and wagered interest-rate cuts will remain on the cards this year.
Bond yields are down 1-3bps and USD starts the week flat. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday, renewing the debate over who will succeed 85-year old supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Oil fluctuated as the market watched for any fallout from political ructions in one of the world’s major crude producers. Elsewhere in commodities, ags are higher and metals are soaring, while energy – despite the death of Iran’s president – is weaker ex-natgas as the Biden oil trading desk sits on the sell button; precious metals, sugar, and wheat are the standout performers all up at least 1.2%. Copper and Nickel also sharply higher after while gold and copper surged to record highs.
With Bloomberg’s commodity index up almost 5% this month, there are fears of a fresh inflation uptick that could take the shine off equities and bonds. Many investors remain confident, however, that price pressures will continue to ease, allowing the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and others to cut rates in the coming months. The macro data focus this relatively quiet week will be on the FOMC Minutes (Weds), Flash PMIs (Thurs), and Durable Goods/Consumer Sentiment (Fri). We also have 16 Fed speakers this week.
In premarket trading, semis are outperforming with SMH +0.6% led by NVDA +1.4%. The Mag 7 are all higher ex-AAPL. NVDA is higher after at least three brokerages, Stifel, Barclays and Baird, raised their price target on the stock (to $1,085, $1,100 and $1,200 from $910, $850, and $1,050 respectively). Johnson Controls International shares jumped 4.4% after Bloomberg reported that Elliott Investment Management had built up a large position in the company, citing people familiar with the matter. Jaguar Health shares plummet 34% after the natural products pharmaceutical company announced a 1-for-60 reverse stock split on Friday.
With much of the macro data in the rearview mirror, traders are now awaiting earnings on Wednesday from AI bellwether Nvidia which has driven a major chunk of this year’s Wall Street gains and comprises 5% of the S&P’s market value.
“Fundamentally, investors are not concerned about the health of the economy,” said Gene Salerno, chief investment officer at SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank Ltd. “I am not too worried about the commodity rally as it’s only one component of inflation and we are seeing other aspects of inflation, such as the froth in the jobs markets, starting to come off.”
The timing of the Fed’s likely pivot to rate cuts has shaped trading across financial markets in recent days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday, while the S&P 500 has hit a series of record highs. That’s prompted Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson — a prominent Wall Street bear — to turn positive on the stock market and predict further gains, potentially sealing the fate of the rally.
However, a number of policymakers have urged caution over cutting rates, with the ECB’s Martins Kazaks the latest to warn against hasty cuts after the first move in June. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin all said last week it may take a while for inflation to ease to the 2% target.
In Europe, equities got a boost from record-high prices for copper and gold. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index hovered near a record high, led by mining stocks including Glencore Plc and and KGHM SA. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Monday:
- Metsa Board shares rise as much as 7.3% after DNB Markets upgraded the Finnish packaging maker to buy from hold on the prospect of an earnings recovery
- Hilton Food Group shares rise as much as 1.7% after the food maker said year-to-date sales were ahead of last year. Analysts welcomed higher volumes
- Ryanair slips as much as 1.6% as analysts highlight “cautiously optimistic” commentary from management on summer pricing, seen flat to modestly higher in the peak season
- Keywords Studios shares gain as much as 70% after it says EQT Group is in advanced talks to buy it for £25.50 per share
- Ubisoft shares rise as much as 4.1% after Cantor Fitzgerald says it’s “now or never” to buy as the company gears up for its strongest game pipeline in recent years
- Trainline shares rise as much as 2.5% after analysts at Deutsche Bank started coverage of the online coach and train ticket supplier with a buy rating
Asian stocks rose, headed for a seventh-straight day of gains, as China’s latest property-rescue measures and expectations for global interest-rate cuts buoyed sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7%, led by mining stocks on a strong rally in metal prices. Key indexes in Japan led advances around the region, with notable increases also in South Korea and Australia. Chinese shares gained after Beijing unveiled a policy package to bolster the slumping housing market, even as concerns linger that the measures may be too small.
In FX, the dollar is little changed as traders paid close attention to a string of Federal Reserve speakers this week to gauge the US central bank’s policy outlook. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady after last week’s 0.7% drop. Fed officials including Chairman Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Loretta Mester, Tom Barkin, John Williams and Austan Goolsbee are due to speak this week.
“Following the soft US CPI data last week, investors have re-factored in about 50 basis points worth of rate cuts by the Fed by year end,” said David Forrester, senior FX strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Singapore. So Fed officials’ remarks this week will be important, and the risk of mispring is supporting the dollar, he added.
In rates, treasuries traded in a narrow overnight range with yields within a basis point of Friday’s close across the curve into the early US session. US 10-year yields around 4.42%, little changed on the day, with bunds and gilts lagging by 0.5bp and 1.5bp in the sector. Slight lag in long-end Treasuries steepens 5s30s spread by almost 1bp on the day. US sales this week include $16b 20-year bonds Wednesday and $16b 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday.
In commodities, copper surged to its highest-ever level, lifting futures on the London Metal Exchange above $11,000 for the first time. Spot gold surges to an all-time high, climbing as much as 1.4% to hit $2,450.07/oz as the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter raised concerns of fresh tensions in the Middle East, offering the haven metal a boost. Oddly enough, crude prices actually dropped despite the latest chaos in the middle east, having risen 10% so far this year, as Biden does everything to prevent an oil and gasoline price spike ahead of the elections.
Bitcoin rises again, trading just above $67k, whilst Ethereum posts mild gains and holds just above $3.1k.
Looking at today’s calendar, there is no US economic data this session; this week includes FOMC meeting minutes, manufacturing and services PMIs, new home sales, durable goods orders and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Bostic (7:30am, 8:45am, 7pm), Barr, Waller (9am), Jefferson (10:30am), and Mester (2pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little up 0.1% at 5,336.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 523.59
- MXAP up 0.4% to 182.58
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 572.14
- Nikkei up 0.7% to 39,069.68
- Topix up 0.8% to 2,768.04
- Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 19,636.22
- Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,171.15
- Sensex up 0.1% to 74,005.94
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,863.66
- Kospi up 0.6% to 2,742.14
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.53%
- Euro little changed at $1.0873
- Brent Futures up 0.1% to $84.09/bbl
- Gold spot up 1.0% to $2,439.46
- US Dollar Index little changed at 104.48
Top Overnight News
- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday, depriving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of a longtime ally as Tehran angles for regional dominance through armed militias that are fighting the U.S. and Israel. Raisi’s death was announced early Monday, after state television reported Sunday afternoon that a helicopter carrying him and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had made a landing” in northwestern Iran. WSJ
- China has signaled it will retaliate against trade barriers introduced by the US and the EU as it launched an anti-dumping probe into chemical imports. The Ministry of Commerce announced on Sunday that it is probing imports of polyoxymethylene copolymer, a thermoplastic widely used in the consumer electronics and automotive industries, from the EU, the US, Japan and Taiwan. FT
- Japanese companies agree to wage increases of 5.58% at the annual talks that concluded in March, the biggest jump in decades. Speculation rises that the BOJ could be forced to hike sooner than anticipated due to persistent JPY weakness. Nikkei
- A St Petersburg court has seized over €700mn of assets belonging to three western banks — UniCredit, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank — according to court documents. The seizure is one of the biggest moves against western lenders since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine prompted most international lenders to withdraw or wind down their businesses in Russia. It comes after the European Central Bank told Eurozone lenders with operations in the country to speed up their exit plans. FT
- ECB’s Martins Kazaks warns markets against assuming a rapid succession of cuts after the June meeting. BBG
- The US and Saudi Arabia are “very, very close” on a landmark security agreement and could go ahead with a bilateral deal given the intractable issue of Gaza and a Palestinian state. NYT
- G7 countries warming to a plan that would extend tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine via a loan that will be paid back by profits earned from seized Russian assets (the money would be disbursed prior to the US election in Nov). FT
- Bank capital rule proposals from the Fed are set to be eased significantly – the original B3 endgame plan would have mandated a 20% capital increase, but now the number will likely to be half as much. WSJ
- Apple is preparing to unveil a partnership w/OpenAI at WWDC next month that will bring ChatGPT to the next version of iOS, and OpenAI is now “racing to ensure it has the capacity” to accommodate the massive influx of new users. BBG
- Revisions to consensus 2024 EPS estimates have been better than usual due to upward guidance from the largest firms. Bottom-up consensus since 1985 has cut annual EPS by a median of 4% each year. Analysts YTD have lowered 2024 EPS estimates for the S&P 493 by 2% but lifted estimates for the Magnificent 7 by 8%, so the aggregate 2024 S&P 500 EPS forecast has been flat: Goldman
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week on the front foot despite last Friday’s indecisive performance on Wall St where the major indices traded sideways but remained near record levels, while there was also a lack of fresh macro developments over the weekend. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in miners after gold and copper prices climbed to fresh record levels. Nikkei 225 surged above the 39,000 level with the index unfazed by the mild uptick in yields and absence of fresh drivers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood but with gains capped in the mainland amid lingering frictions after China
Top Asian News
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (May) 3.45% vs. Exp. 3.45% (Prev. 3.45%)
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) 3.95% vs. Exp. 3.95% (Prev. 3.95%)
- China MOFCOM announced symbolic sanctions against Boeing Defense, Space & Security, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. and General Dynamics Land Systems Inc. which were added to China’s “unreliable entity” list for providing weapons to Taiwan.
- China’s Mofcom launched an anti-dumping probe into polyoxymethylene copolymers (used in electronics and cars) from the EU, US, Taiwan and Japan, according to FT.
- Taiwan’s President Lai was sworn in and called on China to stop threatening Taiwan politically and militarily, while he called on Taiwan and China to take on the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the region. President Lai said they seek peace but cannot have illusions and must work together with democratic countries to form deterrence and avoid war, as well as noted that Taiwan will maintain the status quo and cannot make any concessions on democracy and freedom.
- South Korea plans to partially lift the short-selling ban in June, according to Yonhap.
- BoJ survey finds many firms say they can no longer hire enough workers if they curb wages and more firms are starting to pass on rising labour costs to sales prices.
- Chinese financial market regulators will meet Europe funds this week to attract investments, according to Bloomberg. Vice head of CSRC will meet investors from Wednesday, along with PBoC senior officials, according to Bloomberg
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) are modestly firmer, though with price action contained in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far. European sectors are mostly firmer; Basic Resources and Energy reside as the standout outperformers amid price action in underlying commodities. Except for those two, the breadth of the market is narrow with no overarching theme or bias. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.5%) are trading sideways and around the flat mark ahead of a slew of Fed speakers.
Top European News
- ECB’s Kazaks said the rate-cutting process must be cautious and gradual; will look at the data again after June’s meeting; June meeting is quite likely to be the start of ECB rate cuts.
- BoE’s Broadbent said direct effect on inflation of the pandemic and the war have now faded; now left with the more persistent, second-round effects of that earlier surge on domestic inflation; possible Bank Rate could be cut some time over the summer.
- Rightmove said asking prices for UK homes hit a record high in the four weeks to mid-May although the pace of increase was the slowest YTD.
FX
- USD is flat vs. peers in what has been a quiet weekend/session of newsflow thus far. DXY is currently towards the bottom end of Friday’s 104.39-79 range.
- EUR/USD is unable to launch a test of 1.09 after advancing as high as 1.0894 last week. 1.09 hasn’t been breached since 21st March, where 1.0942 was the high that day.
- Flat trade for the GBP vs. the USD and EUR. Cable kissed Friday’s monthly peak at 1.2711 earlier in the session but was unable to break above it in quiet trade.
- For once, USD/JPY is hugging the unchanged mark which is testament to how quiet trading conditions have been today. As it stands, the pair is contained within Friday’s 155.24-97 parameters.
- Antipodeans are both broadly steady vs. the USD in quiet newsflow. AUD/USD is holding just below the 0.67 mark with an overnight peak of 0.6709, which is just shy of last Thursday’s peak at 0.6714.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1042 vs exp. 7.2162 (prev. 7.1045)
Fixed Income
- Horizontal trade for USTs amid quiet newsflow and a sparse calendar. The back-end of last week saw profit-taking on the CPI/retail sales induced gains earlier in the week.
- Bunds are softer on the session, in a continuation of the downside seen since last Thursday. Traders are mindful of a potential improvement in upcoming PMI metrics. Currently at 130.63, and a far cry from last week’s 132.11 peak.
- Gilts: Similar price action to its German counterpart with the Jun’24 Gilt contract extending on the downside seen since last week. Currently holding around 97.83, and well off last week’s 98.76.
Commodities
- Crude was choppy for much of the European morning, before succumbing to selling pressure, taking the complex into the red with a lack of clear geopolitical catalyst. Although with little follow through, much of today’s focus has been on the death of the Iranian President and Foreign Minister, due to a weather-related helicopter crash. Brent near session lows at around USD 83.85/bbl.
- Precious metals are mostly firmer with focus on spot silver and spot gold, with the latter notching a fresh record high overnight as it zeroes in on the USD 2,050/oz mark; XAU hit a peak at USD 2,450/oz (vs low USD 2,414.72/oz) overnight before stabilising around USD 2,435/oz.
- Base metals are firmer across the board with APAC focus on industrial metals, namely copper and iron following China’s recent property support efforts. Iron ore prices hit their highest level in three months while 3M LME copper hit record highs.
- Iraqi PM said there is no progress in talks with oil companies to resume exports from Kurdistan to Turkey, according to Reuters.
- Libya began operating the new pipeline from its North Hamada oilfield with the initial transfer capacity expected at 2k bpd, according to the National Oil Corporation cited by Reuters.
- Ukrainian intelligence sources said the SBU and military drones struck an oil refinery and airfield in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region in an overnight attack, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- A helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian crashed due to adverse weather conditions, according to state TV. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei reassured Iranians the country’s management would not be affected by the incident and that no disruption would occur in Iran’s state affairs, while it was later confirmed that all passengers including President Raisi were killed in the crash.
- Israel said it is not involved the death of Iranian president Raisi, according to an Israeli official cited by Reuters.
- Israel’s Gallant tells US advisor Sullivan that “we are committed to broadening the Rafah ground operation”
- Israel’s Gantz demanded that the war cabinet agree to a six-point plan for the Gaza conflict by June 8th which should lay out a post-war vision for Gaza governance and equitable Israeli military conscription. Furthermore, Gantz warned his party would quit the emergency coalition government if Israeli PM Netanyahu does not meet expectations, according to Reuters.
- White House National Security Adviser Sullivan discussed with Israelis methods to ensure the defeat of Hamas while minimising harm to civilians, while Sullivan reiterated US President Biden’s longstanding position on Rafah and proposed a series of concrete measures to ensure more aid flows into Gaza. Furthermore, Sullivan held constructive meetings in Saudi Arabia and briefed Israeli PM Netanyahu on the Saudi meetings and the potential that may now be available for Israel and the Palestinians, according to Reuters citing the White House.
- US Central Command said Houthis launched an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Red Sea and struck M/T Wind which is a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker which caused flooding and resulted in a loss of propulsion and steering. However, the crew was able to restore propulsion and steering, and there were no casualties reported, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Other
- Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Black Sea fleet minesweeper, according to the Ukrainian navy.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Starytsia in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, according to TASS. In relevant news, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russia shot down US ATACMS missiles and drones Ukraine used to attack Russian regions overnight, according to Reuters.
- North Korea said it would reconsider measures necessary for improving the overall nuclear deterrence posture after the recent US subcritical nuclear test, while it added that the US subcritical nuclear test fuels an international nuclear arms race, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing scheduled
Central Bank speakers
- 07:30: Fed’s Bostic on Bloomberg TV
- 08:45: Fed’s Bostic Gives Welcome Remarks
- 09:00: Fed’s Barr Gives Keynote Remarks, Q&A
- 09:00: Fed’s Waller Gives Welcoming Remarks
- 10:30: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Economic Outlook, Housing
- 14:00: Fed’s Mester on Bloomberg TV
- 19:00: Fed’s Bostic Moderates Keynote Remarks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’m off to the West Coast this morning. San Fran that is, not Cornwall. It was a very emotional weekend. My twins had their first-ever cricket match at 6 and Jürgen Klopp managed his last game for Liverpool. I’m not one for tears but the latter was an emotional watch. My wife said the only time she’s ever seen me cry is due to sport. Tough to argue with that.
It will be a quieter week ahead for global macro with perhaps the most interesting event of the week being Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. The company always reports a couple of weeks after the main stretch of US earnings season is over so it will act as a potent “digestif” to Q1 reporting. Remember this time last year the mainstream AI frenzy began around the time of Nvidia’s results where the company climbed over 20% on results day and has now tripled in value over 12 months.
Staying in the US, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday are likely to be the main economic event. However, it’s tough to see how it will contain much new material especially as since the meeting we have seen CPI and PPI. Perhaps the busy week for Fedspeak will prove more interesting. Vice Chair Jefferson today and Governor Waller tomorrow are early week highlights with the rest in our day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual. Lagarde and the BoE Bailey speak tomorrow.
In terms of US data, notable releases include durable goods orders (DB forecast +0.5% in April vs +2.6% in March) and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s survey on Friday, as well as housing market data throughout the week. For the UoM survey, inflation expectations will be a highlight as the preliminary reading showed short- and longer-term expectations edging up. The survey is currently transitioning from 100% phone to 100% web-based responses over a 4-month period. So strange or inconsistent readings are possible.
The global flash PMIs on Thursday will be a highlight alongside UK inflation on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence on Friday. Our UK economist previews the inflation data here and expects the headline to drop to around 2.2% YoY, 18 months after peaking at 11.1%. He sees core CPI at 3.6% and services at 5.4%, both also down. He sees risks to the headline projection as skewed to the downside. Canada’s CPI is also out tomorrow.
In Germany, PPI tomorrow and the breakdown of Q1 GDP on Friday, are likely the main events in mainland Europe. In Asia, the national CPI in Japan on Friday is the main release. Our Chief Japan economist expects core inflation ex. fresh food to be up 2.2% YoY (2.6% in March) and core-core ex. fresh food and energy up 2.5% (+2.9%), both rising +0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted MoM basis.
Asian equity markets are advancing this morning tracking Friday’s gain on Wall Street and maintaining some momentum after Beijing’s measures to stimulate the nation’s beleaguered property sector at the end of last week. Across the region, the Nikkei (+1.11%) is leading gains with the KOSPI (+0.59%), the Hang Seng (+0.26%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%) and the CSI (+0.20%) all also edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are also ticking higher.
Coming back to China, the PBoC held its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.45% as expected while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was also kept intact at 3.95%. Elsewhere, yields on the 10yr JGBs touched a high of 0.975% for the first time since 2013 before settling at 0.972% (+3bps) as I type amid expectations that the BOJ will trim its bond buyin at its regular operations to support the struggling yen.
Meanwhile, investors will again keep an eye on the Middle East after a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed amid heavy fog in northern Iran . Official reports have now said that the President and Foreign Minister are amongst those dead.
Recapping last week now and it was another strong one for equities. The S&P 500 was up +1.54% in a fourth consecutive weekly increase (+0.12% Friday), its longest winning streak since February. The most notable milestone of the week came very late in Friday’s session as the Dow Jones index closed above the 40,000 level for the first time (+0.34% on Friday).
Renewed tech optimism supported outperformance for the NASDAQ (+2.11% over the week, despite -0.07% on Friday) but the equity gains were broad-based with the small cap Russell 2000 up +1.74% over the week. Global equities saw mixed gains, as Europe’s STOXX 600 clocked a +0.42% rise (-0.13% on Friday) while the MSCI EM index was up +2.63% (+0.11% on Friday).
Briefly on meme stocks, GameStop finished the week up +27.2%. That is despite substantial losses on Friday (-19.7%) following an announcement of plans for the firm to sell up to 45 million shares. They started the week at a price of just under $17.5, before more than tripling to just over $60 at their peak early Tuesday and then slumping back at $22.2 at the end of week. The meme-stock rally also petered out elsewhere. For example, AMC Entertainment fell -5.17% on Friday, although was still up +51.2% from last Monday’s open.
The broader strength in US equities was initially helped by investors increasing the amount of rate cuts they were expecting this year following the slight downside surprise in the headline April US CPI print on Wednesday. That said, this trade saw some retracement in the latter half of the week, with the amount of Fed cuts expected by year-end rising from 41bps at the start of the week to 52bps on Wednesday, before falling back to 44bps by Friday’s close. That retracement was greater for the ECB, with investors trimming the number of cuts expected by December by -5.3bps on Friday to 67bps from a peak of 75bps on Wednesday (and 69bps a week earlier).
This pattern also resulted in somewhat different sovereign bond moves on either side of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr and 2yr Treasuries fell -7.5bps and -4.1bps respectively over the week, despite a sell-off on Friday (+4.6bps and +3.0bps respectively). Over in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds traded flat on the week (-0.1bps) with a sell off on Friday (+5.6bps) reversing earlier gains.
Lastly, in commodities, gold recorded a second consecutive week of gains, with a +2.32% increase (+1.39% on Friday) leaving it at another all-time high of $2,415/oz. In oil, prices recovered from two-month lows helped along by falling US inventories. Brent crude rose +1.44% to $83.98/bbl (+0.85% on Friday), and WTI rose +2.30% to $80.06/bbl (+1.05% on Friday).
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Equities modestly firmer, DXY flat in catalyst thin trade, XAU & Copper hit ATHs; Fed speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 05:48 AM
- European equities hold a mild positive bias, whilst US futures lack firm direction and holds around the unchanged mark.
- Dollar is flat alongside G10 peers, Kiwi marginally underperforms, USTs are flat in quiet newsflow, whilst Bunds are slightly softer.
- A helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian crashed due to adverse weather conditions with no survivors reported; Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei signalled continuity.
- Spot gold printed a record high of around USD 2,450/oz while copper futures extended on gains and benchmark LME prices hit a fresh all-time peak above USD 11,100/t.
- Looking ahead, speak from Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson and Mester. Holidays: Whit Monday (Switzerland, Norway, Denmark are closed).
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) are modestly firmer, though with price action contained in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far.
- European sectors are mostly firmer; Basic Resources and Energy reside as the standout outperformers amid price action in underlying commodities. Except for those two, the breadth of the market is narrow with no overarching theme or bias.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.5%) are trading sideways and around the flat mark ahead of a slew of Fed speakers.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- USD is flat vs. peers in what has been a quiet weekend/session of newsflow thus far. DXY is currently towards the bottom end of Friday’s 104.39-79 range.
- EUR/USD is unable to launch a test of 1.09 after advancing as high as 1.0894 last week. 1.09 hasn’t been breached since 21st March, where 1.0942 was the high that day.
- Flat trade for the GBP vs. the USD and EUR. Cable kissed Friday’s monthly peak at 1.2711 earlier in the session but was unable to break above it in quiet trade.
- For once, USD/JPY is hugging the unchanged mark which is testament to how quiet trading conditions have been today. As it stands, the pair is contained within Friday’s 155.24-97 parameters.
- Antipodeans are both broadly steady vs. the USD in quiet newsflow. AUD/USD is holding just below the 0.67 mark with an overnight peak of 0.6709, which is just shy of last Thursday’s peak at 0.6714.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1042 vs exp. 7.2162 (prev. 7.1045)
- Click here for more details.
FIXED INCOME
- Horizontal trade for USTs amid quiet newsflow and a sparse calendar. The back-end of last week saw profit-taking on the CPI/retail sales induced gains earlier in the week.
- Bunds are softer on the session, in a continuation of the downside seen since last Thursday. Traders are mindful of a potential improvement in upcoming PMI metrics. Currently at 130.63, and a far cry from last week’s 132.11 peak.
- Gilts: Similar price action to its German counterpart with the Jun’24 Gilt contract extending on the downside seen since last week. Currently holding around 97.83, and well off last week’s 98.76.
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Crude was choppy for much of the European morning, before succumbing to selling pressure, taking the complex into the red with a lack of clear geopolitical catalyst. Although with little follow through, much of today’s focus has been on the death of the Iranian President and Foreign Minister, due to a weather-related helicopter crash. Brent near session lows at around USD 83.85/bbl.
- Precious metals are mostly firmer with focus on spot silver and spot gold, with the latter notching a fresh record high overnight as it zeroes in on the USD 2,050/oz mark; XAU hit a peak at USD 2,450/oz (vs low USD 2,414.72/oz) overnight before stabilising around USD 2,435/oz.
- Base metals are firmer across the board with APAC focus on industrial metals, namely copper and iron following China’s recent property support efforts. Iron ore prices hit their highest level in three months while 3M LME copper hit record highs.
- Iraqi PM said there is no progress in talks with oil companies to resume exports from Kurdistan to Turkey, according to Reuters.
- Libya began operating the new pipeline from its North Hamada oilfield with the initial transfer capacity expected at 2k bpd, according to the National Oil Corporation cited by Reuters.
- Ukrainian intelligence sources said the SBU and military drones struck an oil refinery and airfield in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region in an overnight attack, according to Reuters.
- Click here for more details.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is flat and holds just beneath USD 67k, whilst Ethereum posts mild gains and holds just above USD 3.1k.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell did not comment on monetary policy or the economy in remarks prepared for delivery to Georgetown Law School’s commencement ceremony.
DATA RECAP
- UK Rightmove House Price Index MM 0.8% (Prev. 1.1%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Kazaks said the rate-cutting process must be cautious and gradual; will look at the data again after June’s meeting; June meeting is quite likely to be the start of ECB rate cuts.
- BoE’s Broadbent said direct effect on inflation of the pandemic and the war have now faded; now left with the more persistent, second-round effects of that earlier surge on domestic inflation; possible Bank Rate could be cut some time over the summer.
- Rightmove said asking prices for UK homes hit a record high in the four weeks to mid-May although the pace of increase was the slowest YTD.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- A helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian crashed due to adverse weather conditions, according to state TV. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei reassured Iranians the country’s management would not be affected by the incident and that no disruption would occur in Iran’s state affairs, while it was later confirmed that all passengers including President Raisi were killed in the crash.
- Israel said it is not involved the death of Iranian president Raisi, according to an Israeli official cited by Reuters.
- Israel’s Gallant tells US advisor Sullivan that “we are committed to broadening the Rafah ground operation”
- Israel’s Gantz demanded that the war cabinet agree to a six-point plan for the Gaza conflict by June 8th which should lay out a post-war vision for Gaza governance and equitable Israeli military conscription. Furthermore, Gantz warned his party would quit the emergency coalition government if Israeli PM Netanyahu does not meet expectations, according to Reuters.
- White House National Security Adviser Sullivan discussed with Israelis methods to ensure the defeat of Hamas while minimising harm to civilians, while Sullivan reiterated US President Biden’s longstanding position on Rafah and proposed a series of concrete measures to ensure more aid flows into Gaza. Furthermore, Sullivan held constructive meetings in Saudi Arabia and briefed Israeli PM Netanyahu on the Saudi meetings and the potential that may now be available for Israel and the Palestinians, according to Reuters citing the White House.
- US Central Command said Houthis launched an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Red Sea and struck M/T Wind which is a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker which caused flooding and resulted in a loss of propulsion and steering. However, the crew was able to restore propulsion and steering, and there were no casualties reported, according to Reuters.
OTHER
- Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Black Sea fleet minesweeper, according to the Ukrainian navy.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Starytsia in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, according to TASS. In relevant news, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russia shot down US ATACMS missiles and drones Ukraine used to attack Russian regions overnight, according to Reuters.
- North Korea said it would reconsider measures necessary for improving the overall nuclear deterrence posture after the recent US subcritical nuclear test, while it added that the US subcritical nuclear test fuels an international nuclear arms race, according to KCNA.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the week on the front foot despite last Friday’s indecisive performance on Wall St where the major indices traded sideways but remained near record levels, while there was also a lack of fresh macro developments over the weekend.
- ASX 200 was led by outperformance in miners after gold and copper prices climbed to fresh record levels.
- Nikkei 225 surged above the 39,000 level with the index unfazed by the mild uptick in yields and absence of fresh drivers.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood but with gains capped in the mainland amid lingering frictions after China
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (May) 3.45% vs. Exp. 3.45% (Prev. 3.45%)
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) 3.95% vs. Exp. 3.95% (Prev. 3.95%)
- China MOFCOM announced symbolic sanctions against Boeing Defense, Space & Security, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. and General Dynamics Land Systems Inc. which were added to China’s “unreliable entity” list for providing weapons to Taiwan.
- China’s Mofcom launched an anti-dumping probe into polyoxymethylene copolymers (used in electronics and cars) from the EU, US, Taiwan and Japan, according to FT.
- Taiwan’s President Lai was sworn in and called on China to stop threatening Taiwan politically and militarily, while he called on Taiwan and China to take on the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the region. President Lai said they seek peace but cannot have illusions and must work together with democratic countries to form deterrence and avoid war, as well as noted that Taiwan will maintain the status quo and cannot make any concessions on democracy and freedom.
- South Korea plans to partially lift the short-selling ban in June, according to Yonhap.
- BoJ survey finds many firms say they can no longer hire enough workers if they curb wages and more firms are starting to pass on rising labour costs to sales prices.
- Chinese financial market regulators will meet Europe funds this week to attract investments, according to Bloomberg. Vice head of CSRC will meet investors from Wednesday, along with PBoC senior officials, according to Bloomberg.
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
END
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL/HAMAS///
Israel’s Wartime Government Fracturing As Top Minister Threatens To Quit
SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2024 – 02:00 PM
Tensions within the Israeli government are exploding, after Defense Minister Yovav Gallant earlier this week called out Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and gave him an ultimatum, demanding that a day-after plan be offered and approved by the government.
“I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza strip will be raised immediately,” Gallant said recently.
What’s more is that Washington is backing Gallant’s pressure campaign against Netanyahu. “We share the Defense Minister’s concern that Israel has not developed any plans for holding and governing territory the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] clears, thereby allowing Hamas to regenerate in those areas. This is a concern because our objective is to see Hamas defeated,” a senior Biden administration official told The Hill.
Gallant first issued his indictment days ago, but over the weekend Axios reported that a timetable has been issued. It was War Minister Benny Gantz’s turn to ratchet up the pressure, backing Gallant’s stance:
Minister Benny Gantz, a notable member of Israel’s war cabinet, gave an ultimatum to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday and said his party will leave the government if the cabinet doesn’t approve a strategy for the war in Gaza by June 8.
Gantz complained in the Saturday speech that the hardliners in Netanyahu’s coalition are “taking Israel into a wall” – a reference to ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Betzalel Smotruch. Gantz threatened to withdraw from the fragile coalition government which could collapse it.
It didn’t take long over the weekend of the prime minister to issue a statement defying both his own top ministers and Washington.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office rejected Gantz threat in a fresh statement. “The conditions set by Benny Gantz are washed-up words whose meaning is clear: the end of the war and a defeat for Israel, the abandonment of most of the hostages, leaving Hamas intact and the establishment of a Palestinian state,” it said.
Netanyahu further questioned Gantz and his political allies’ resolve to see the mission through. “Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks that the emergency government is important for achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all our hostages, and expects Gantz to clarify his positions to the public on these issues,” the statement continued.
Gantz then hit back again in response to Netanyahu’s office, saying the prime minister should not “drag his feet for fear of the extremists in his government.”
Anti-Netanyahu protests have meanwhile only grown larger and stronger…
#TelAviv tonight: Tens of thousands are back on the streets calling for Netanyahu’s ouster.
For the 1st time, Opposition Leader Lapid speaks at Tel Aviv rally.
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663.2K Views
Critics of Netanyahu have accused the Israeli leader ultimately placing his own political survival above the true security interests of Israel. They’ve charged that his incentive is to prolong the conflict, and that this does further harm to the cause of bringing the hostages home.
END
IDF: Senior Hamas operative in terror group’s supply unit killed in Gaza airstrike
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOWToday, 2:43 pm
A senior Hamas operative in the terror group’s supply unit was killed in an airstrike in the Gaza Strip yesterday, the military says.
According to the IDF, Azmi Abu Daqqa was involved in smuggling weapons and funds for Hamas in Gaza.
The airstrike was carried out following intelligence provided by the Military Intelligence Directorate, the IDF says.
It releases footage of the strike.
כלי-טיס של חיל-האוויר תקפו וחיסלו אתמול את המחבל עזמי אבו-דקה, פעיל בארגון הטרור חמאס אשר שימש כגורם מוביל במחלקת האספקה של ארגון הטרור חמאס וקידם העברת אמצעי לחימה וכספים שמיועדים לטרור ברצועה. בנוסף, במהלך היממה האחרונה, חיל-האוויר תקף עשרות מטרות טרור. באחת התקיפות כלי-טיס של חיל-האוויר חיסל שני מפקדים בדרג הטקטי של ארגון הטרור חמאס אשר נערכו לפגוע בכוחותינו במרחב רפיח.Translate post
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5,968 Views
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1792156168611078639
כלי-טיס של חיל-האוויר תקפו וחיסלו אתמול את המחבל עזמי אבו-דקה, פעיל בארגון הטרור חמאס אשר שימש כגורם מוביל במחלקת האספקה של ארגון הטרור חמאס וקידם העברת אמצעי לחימה וכספים שמיועדים לטרור ברצועה.
בנוסף, במהלך היממה האחרונה, חיל-האוויר תקף עשרות מטרות טרור.
באחת התקיפות כלי-טיס… pic.twitter.com/dFujyLNCqe— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) May 19, 2024
Dozens more Hamas targets were hit across Gaza over the past day, including two “tactical-level” commanders, who were preparing to attack Israeli forces in the Rafah area, the military adds.
END
END
HOUTHIS
Oil Tanker Struck By Missile Off Yemen Coast
SATURDAY, MAY 18, 2024 – 11:05 AM
As Ukrainian drones relentlessly target Russia’s energy complex, tensions in the Middle East are once again rising. Early Saturday, Agence France-Presse reported that a crude oil tanker was hit by a missile off the coast of Yemen. These mounting geopolitical risks underscore the possible need for a higher risk premium on Brent crude prices.
Maritime security firm Ambrey told AFP News that the oil tanker was near the Bab el-Mandeb strait and about ten nautical miles southwest of the city of Mokha at the time of the incident.
Ambrey indicated the Panama-flagged oil tanker was hit by a missile and that there was a fire in the steering gear flat.
Since November, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking commercial vessels linked to Western nations passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea, mostly in response to their support for Israel in the war against Hamas in Gaza.
In recent weeks, Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the terror group, warned in a televised speech that rebels intend to target Israel-linked ships in the eastern Mediterranean.
With President Biden’s Operation Prosperity Guardian failing to defend maritime traffic in the region, Iran and their proxy groups have successfully severed a major shipping route for some Western companies, forcing them to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
We have outlined one major example of Biden’s failures in the Red Sea:
- “Dramatic Picture For History Books”: LNG Tankers Still Absent From Red Sea
- Biden’s Red Sea Failure Exhibited In One Map
In April, the international shipping industry pleaded with the United Nations for help, urging increased military patrols along key shipping routes in the Middle East. We have pointed out several maritime chokepoints, including the Suez Canal, Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of all global trade flows, are experiencing increased conflict.
In a recent note, MUFG provided a global snapshot of the world’s maritime chokepoints.
In markets, Brent crude prices have traded between $80/bbl and $90/bbl this year on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Last month, there was fear that the Israel-Iran conflict would send Brent prices into triple-digit territory. However, prices have since declined to the $83 handle.
This chaos is a sign of weakness from the West as the world fractures into a multipolar state. More turmoil and disruptions in global supply chains are yet more evidence oil prices will stay elevated unless central banks plunge the world into a global depression.
Rapidan Energy Group commented on this incident: “The latest attack is yet another reminder of an underpriced geopolitical risk premium in oil as multiple armed actors remain undeterred by US-led diplomacy and maritime coalitions.”
END
IRAN/MONDAY
Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Confirmed Dead In Helicopter Crash
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 01:17 AM
Update(0117ET): Iranian media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier Sunday.
Reuters also confirmed Raisi’s death.
“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” a senior official told the outlet on condition of anonymity.
* * *
Iranian President’s Helicopter Located, Military Deployed To Tehran’s Streets: State Media
SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2024 – 02:20 PM
Update(1420ET): We are getting closer to learning the fate of Iran’s President Raisi and his foreign minister and other officials aboard the helicopter which went down hours ago:
- Iran’s president Raisi’s crashed helicopter has been found by search teams – State TV — Reuters
- Iranian official tells State TV: Contacts have been made with one of the passengers and one of the crew members of the president’s helicopter on several occasions — Reuters
The Red Crescent organization is denying that the crash site has been found, amid contradictory and early reporting. So far Iranian officials are signaling that the president is alive, but the situation remains uncertain and fluid, following widespread speculation that he could be deceased.
Iranian officials are seeking to assure the nation and the world that continuity of decision-making and government is stable and assured, amid reports of a heavy military presence on the streets of the capital Tehran.
“The Iranian president’s helicopter has been found” and contact has been made with the crew and “one of the passengers on board”. At this point it is night time, amid bad weather…
* * *
Update(1315ET): Several hours into a massive search and rescue operation and things are not looking good as Iranian officials have been issuing ‘thoughts and prayers’ statements amid reports that severe fog and bad weather have prevented a proper aerial search for the downed helicopter of President Raisi and those with him. Deep uncertainty looms as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was reported as holding an emergency meeting with the National Security Council in Tehran (follow-up reports from state sources have downplayed or contracted this, however). The Iranian population is on edge as speculation grows that the president is feared dead:
“Nobody knows what exactly has happened and how the president and other local officials, because the situation is quite complicated,” he told Al Jazeera.
“As time goes on, hopes are decreasing because the conditions are getting much worse and it’s getting darker,” Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, noted.
“What is being felt here in Tehran [Iran’s capital] is mostly that feeling of uncertainty.”
At this moment, the president and his foreign minister, along with other officials are officially missing in a mountainous, forested area near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Iran has mobilized the armed forces, including the IRGC, amid unconfirmed reports that even some of the search and rescue units are also possibly missing…
Iran’s Khamenei reassures Iranians that country’s management will not be affected by the incident – IRNA — Reuters
Initial footage from the far northern border region with Azerbaijan shows fog so thick that it’s hard to see just dozens of meters ahead.
One independent regional monitor has said: “This is hardly a surprise. First responders and rescue crews are being dispatched en-masse without proper briefing/delegation of command.”
More footage showing a difficult terrain and weather situation. Visibility at a distance is near zero…
Speculation that Raisi could be dead has begun to hit foreign media, including in Israel:
Iran official: Lives of president, FM ‘at risk’ after crash landing in wooded area
There has also been speculation of possible foreign interference as the search and rescue extends into hours, involving a massive military and security response, with drones and other deployed assets over the region…
STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN:
“Today, after a friendly meeting with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, the news of the emergency landing of the helicopter carrying the Iranian high delegation caused great concern. Our prayers to Almighty God are with President Ebrahim Raisi and his accompanying delegation. As a neighbor, friend and brother country, the Republic of Azerbaijan is ready to provide all kinds of support.”
The official Instagram of the Iranian president is calling on all citizens to pray for his safety.
State media also appears to be fearing the worst, airing images like the following showing Raisi on a prior religious pilgrimage:
President Biden has been briefed, the White House said in a statement:
US President Joe Biden was briefed on the helicopter crash involving Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, according to the White House.
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, accompanying Biden aboard Air Force One on Sunday, offered no other details.
* * *
There are breaking reports that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a helicopter crash in a remote northern area of the country and that rescuers are trying to reach him and his crew.
State media is currently calling it a “hard landing” – suggesting that the president is alive and well, however no other details on the precise nature of the helicopter incident have been revealed. According to the NYT, 16 rescue teams have been dispatched to locate the helicopter, however inclement weather are hampering the effort, according to the reports. The teams have failed to locate the crash after nearly five hours. According to the latest via Al Jazeera citing state media:
- Adverse weather conditions, including heavy fog, are hampering rescue efforts and the helicopter is still missing.
- Iran’s Fars News Agency calls on Iranians to pray for President Raisi.
What is known is that Raisi’s helicopter went down while in the country’s East Azerbaijan province and that it happened near the border city of Jolfa, and up to three helicopters total made up the air convoy at the time.
“Given the complexities of the region, connection has been difficult, and we are hoping that the rescue teams reach the helicopter and can give us more information,” said Iran’s interior minister, Ahmad Vahidi on state television.
State-run IRNA news agency indicated that among the officials aboard the aircraft included Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.
The Associated Press has quoted at least one Iranian official to say it was a “crash” and that there’s an urgent rescue mission currently underway in a forested area:
One local government official used the word “crash” to describe the incident, but he acknowledged to an Iranian newspaper that he had yet to reach the site himself.
Rescuers were attempting to reach the site, state TV said, but had been hampered by poor weather conditions. There had been heavy rain and fog reported with some wind. IRNA called the area a “forest.”
It appears Raisi was traveling in connection with a trip to Azerbaijan earlier in the day, where he had overseen the inauguration of a dam with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev this morning. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency has stated on X Sunday:
“Some of the president’s companions on this helicopter were able to communicate with Central Headquarters, raising hopes that the incident could have ended without casualties.”
Thus far initial reports indicate that Raisi has survived the incident, but again the ‘hard landing’ appears to be significant – and possibly far worse – than what state media is letting on.
The fact that a rescue team has yet to even reach the location of the downed helicopter means this could be a potential casualty situation involving top officials.
Almost immediately, a number of online commenters raised the question of potential foreign involvement… “Israel?” some asked. However, it’s also well understood that helicopters become more prone to incidents in foggy or inclement weather, and over mountainous difficult terrain. Iran’s aviation industry has also long languished under Washington-led sanctions.
end
IRAN
Iran Announces Interim President After Raisi’s Helicopter “Hit A Mountain & Disintegrated”
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Following Tehran’s early Monday confirmation of the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other officials after their helicopter went down over mountainous terrain near the border with Azerbaijan, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named a new acting president of the Islamic Republic.
Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has assume interim duties in the wake of Raisi’s death. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri, has been named acting foreign minister. This follows a Sunday statement by Khamenei assuring the public that there would be continuity and stability in the nation’s leadership. Iranians have taken to the streets in what’s expected to be several days of a national mourning period.
Bodies of the deceased were hiked out of the remote region of the crash. They had to be physically carried on stretchers by rescuers who spent hours reaching the site amid difficult Sunday and overnight weather conditions.
State media has since indicated that aboard the presidential helicopter were nine people in total, including body guards and clerics. Their aging Bell helicopter had reportedly “hit a mountain and disintegrated” amid high fog, low visibility conditions. This was not at all the “hard landing” the world was initially informed about Sunday via state officials and media.
Iran’s Red Crescent chief Pirhossein Koolivand has told international media that his team is “transferring the bodies of the martyrs to Tabriz” and that “the search operations have come to an end.”
Very quickly, theories emerged over the question of foreign involvement or a covert plot to assassinate the Iranian head of state. Israel has been quick to deny speculation of its involvement:
On Monday, an Israeli official denied involvement in the crash, telling the Reuters news agency: “It wasn’t us.”
Raisi, 63, was widely regarded as a hardliner in the country and was nicknamed the ‘butcher of Tehran’ over his role in sentencing thousands of Iranian prisoners to their deaths in 1988.
The Taliban and Hezbollah are among those issuing their condolences, with the latter referencing “great brother” Raisi. Russia is offering any assistance needed, and statements of mourning are pouring in from world leaders, including the following:
- Several world leaders, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have offered their condolences
- Syria and Lebanon have declared three days of mourning following the fatal helicopter crash
- Hezbollah has issued a statement offering its “deepest condolences” to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and the Iranian people.
- European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has offered his condolences over Raisi’s death.
Already President Putin has spoken directly by phone to Iran’s interim President Mokhber. The Kremlin said in the call the Russian leader emphasized “mutual intention to further strengthen Russian-Iranian interaction.”
Below is some summary background information on the newly appointed Iranian leader Mokhber:
Despite his low-key public profile, Mokhber has held prominent positions with in the country’s power structure, particularly in its bonyads, or charitable foundations. Those groups were fueled by donations or assets seized after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, particularly those previously associated with Iran’s shah or those in his government.
Mokhber oversaw a bonyad known in English as the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order, or EIKO, referring to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
…Mokhber previously worked in banking and telecommunications. He also worked at the Mostazafan Foundation, another bonyad that’s a major conglomerate that manages the country’s mega-projects and businesses. While there, he found himself entangled in a bitter legal dispute between mobile phone service providers Turkcell and South Africa’s MTN over potentially entering the Iranian market.
And below is a brief backgrounder on new foreign minister Ali Bagher:
- Born in 1967 in the village of Kan in northwestern Tehran, Bagheri grew up in a family deeply involved in Iranian politics.
- His father, a renowned Shia leader, was a member of the Assembly of Experts tasked with selecting the supreme leader.
- Bagheri worked in the Foreign Ministry in the 1990s and grew close to conservative figure Saeed Jalili.
- When Jalili was appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and became Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Bagheri served as his number two.
- After Bagheri concluded his own mission at the Council, he joined the judiciary when it was headed by Raisi.
- He served as secretary of the Human Rights Council and then as assistant for international affairs.
- Weeks after Raisi took office in 2021, Bagheri was appointed deputy foreign minister for political affairs and chief nuclear negotiator. Since then, those talks have come to a standstill over seemingly insurmountable differences, particularly with the US.
Below is a summary of the last 24 hours via Peter Tchir of Academy Securities:
- Yesterday, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi crashed while he was visiting a region in northern Iran.
- After a 12-hour search, it was confirmed by Iranian state media earlier this morning that nine people including President Raisi and Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, were killed in the crash.
- Reportedly, at least 40 rescue teams (including drones, search dogs, and two helicopters from Russia) were utilized in the search effort, but bad weather, heavy fog, and darkness made it difficult for them to reach the site and confirm the deaths of the passengers.
- Initial indications are that the crash was weather related, but due to sanctions on Iran, many aircraft face a shortage of parts, so officials are not ruling out a maintenance issue as a reason for the crash.
- Raisi was a hardliner who was re-elected in 2021 and was viewed as a protégé of Khamenei, and a likely successor.
- Under Raisi’s leadership, Iran continued to enrich uranium to near-weapons grade levels, supplied weapons to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine, launched a (largely unsuccessful) missile and drone attack on Israel in April, and continued to support proxy forces in the Middle East including the Houthis and Hezbollah.
- Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, is next in line for the presidency and Khamenei announced this morning that he would serve as the country’s acting president until elections are held, which are required to happen in the next 50 days.
- Mokhber was reportedly part of the group that traveled to Moscow in 2022 to finalize the deal to send Shahed drones and surface-to-surface missiles to Russia.
For now it appears ‘moderates’ have temporarily replaced the ‘moderate’ Raisi and also deceased FM Amir-Abdollahian. The coming days will be interesting given everything happening in the Middle East, especially surrounding the Gaza war and the fact that Israel and Iran very nearly entered a full-blown war in recent months.
developing…
US Sending Nuclear-Powered Carrier For ‘Higher Stakes’ Red Sea Mission
SATURDAY, MAY 18, 2024 – 07:35 AM
Since the start of the Gaza war at least 20 ships have been damaged in the Red Sea amid the ongoing Houthi campaign to punish Israel and its international backers. The US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian is something which has retreated from headlines as it has by and large proved ineffective.
US warships patrolling waters off Yemen have shot down dozens, or possibly even hundreds of drones and missiles at this point – while also at times carrying out offensive operations – but the Iran supported Houthis have remained undeterred.
The Pentagon is now readying the next step, sending the USS Harry S. Truman nuclear-powered aircraft carrier into the Red Sea. US military magazine Stripes writes of recent planning: “The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and its 6,000-some sailors have spent recent months training in the western Atlantic Ocean for that mission — a rare, pre-planned deployment expected to take the ship into a hostile environment.”
“In recent weeks, its sailors have been undergoing flight deck testing, its pilots knowing that later this year they will be tasked with shooting down drones and munitions launched by the Iran-backed Houthis,” the publication details further.
European allies, and groups like the Atlantic Council have been bitterly complaining about the ongoing ‘failures’ of the Pentagon-led mission thus far:
Six months after the Joe Biden administration launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the biggest issue facing the White House is not the Houthi threat but the US failure to rally partners and allies behind its leadership.
Several costly MQ-9 Reaper drones have already been lost in the region, with some shot down by the Houthis, as the US continues to expend billions related to Gaza conflict spillover.
While the Truman carrier will certainly be a huge show of force, it could be more simply that the 1,000-foot-long, 104,000-ton vessel will just make for a bigger Houthi target.
Head of the US Navy Fleet Forces Command Adm. Daryl Caudle has described of sailors preparing for the mission, “They know that they’re most likely going to be entering a weapon engagement zone.”
“For this group, this [deployment] is not with the mindset that they’re just going to go drill holes in the water somewhere — this is, ‘We’re going to be employed for combat.’”
Back in November, there was this stunning and contradictory admission from the Commander-in-Chief:
This is peak American foreign policy… When asked if the strikes on Yemen are working Biden replies: “When you say working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.” Literally saying “bombing these folks is useless, but we’ll keep doing it”.
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As has been the sad pattern after more that 20 years of the so-called Global War on Terror (GWOT), this naval commander is openly talking about deploying for “combat” in a new volatile and high-stakes theater, and yet there’s never been formal Congressional authorization to go to war with Yemen or the Houthis. Of course, there have been many such cases.
end
Hamas wishes to blow up the pier, that which will provide aid to Gazans..how sick are these peopel
(zerohedge)
Fierce Fighting Gets Closer To US-Built Gaza Pier Just As Initial Aid Rolls Off
SATURDAY, MAY 18, 2024 – 08:25 PM
While global coverage of the Gaza crisis has focused on the Israeli offensive in the southern city of Raffah of late, fierce battles have erupted in the north of the Strip over the last several days, especially in Jabalia, where the IDF military is in a fierce anti-insurgent style battle set amid narrow alleyways.
The city which lies 2.5 miles north of Gaza City saw a ‘return’ of Hamas fighters after the IDF months ago conquered it. It has long been deemed among the Strip’s permanent refugee camps. There are reports that Israeli armor has smashed deep into the heart of the camp and city.
Hamas also appears to have stepped-up its attacks on Israeli forces in various locations, and Al Jazeera reports at least 40 Palestinian deaths over the course of the last day.
“Tanks and planes are wiping out residential districts and markets, shops, restaurants, everything. It is all happening before the one-eyed world,” a resident of Jabalia identified as Ayman Rajab told a regional outlet.
The same outlet observed that this intensifying fighting is occurring in the same northern region as the US Army-built humanitarian aid pier:
“People are terrified and they’re trying to get away,” Jens Laerke, UN humanitarian office spokesperson, said in Geneva, adding that most were following orders to move north toward the coast but that there were no safe routes or destinations.
As the fighting raged, the US military said trucks started moving aid ashore from a temporary pier, the first to reach the besieged enclave by sea in weeks.
The situation is heating up even as famine is said to be present in this northern area. “To stave off the horrors of famine, we must use the fastest and most obvious route to reach the people of Gaza – and for that, we need access by land now,” deputy UN spokesperson Farhan Haq announced in a statement, even as initial US aid deliveries via the pier get underway from nearby Cyprus.
This of course creates the potential that expanded fighting could occur close to the vicinity where American troops are overseeing pier operations just off the coast.
The Pentagon previously made it clear that if US troops come under fire, they are authorized to defend themselves and fire back. However, the IDF has also said it is providing security on land, and there are at least two Israeli bases established nearby.
Israel has said of the intense Jabalia fight:
The Israel Defense Forces said troops killed more than 60 militants in Jabalia in recent days and located a weapons warehouse in a “divisional-level offensive.”
A divisional operation would typically involve several brigades of thousands of troops each, making it one of the biggest of the war. “The 7th Brigade’s fire control center directed dozens of airstrikes, eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure,” the IDF said.
Again, this is all potential recipe for a looming disaster which could suck the Pentagon directly into the chaos of northern Gaza fighting. Some Congressional leaders have recently sought to address this possibility in hearings:
After the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden is putting troops in harm’s way with a half baked plan to construct a pier in Gaza. Watch me question Biden admin officials,
Commander, and
Commander during today’s
hearing
As for Hamas, its armed wing is openly advertising that it is pouring its members into the fight. Via its Telegram channel the group said that its fighters:
- shot an Israeli soldier with sniper fire east of Jabalia
- attacked a group of 15 soldiers with anti-personnel devices and then used light weapons and hand grenades while they were inside a house in al-Tanour neighbourhood, east of Rafah
- targeted a Merkava tank with a Yassin-105 rocket in the same neighbourhood
- shelled Rafah crossing
- targeted an “Apache” Israeli military helicopter with an anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile (SAM-7)
- blew up an Israeli military bulldozer east of Rafah
There further remains the possibility that Palestinian militants could send drones against the pier, which is something both the Pentagon and IDF appear to have prepared for.
Several Coyote Block 2 Anti-UAS/UAV deployed on US-built floating pier( also known as JLOTS costs $326 million) Threat Perception/Kamikaze UAV- UAS
Geolocation: 31.497, 34.408
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How will this all end? Things look to continue to get worse, and there’s still no sign of positive momentum toward a ceasefire on the horizon.
end
US Blasts ‘Outrageous’ ICC Pending Arrest Warrants Targeting Israel Leaders
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 01:07 PM
Update(1307ET): The same Western officials who cheered on the Hague-based ICC when it issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin are now aghast that it would do the same for US ally Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Biden administration has condemned the pending formal arrest warrant applications, which also targets Israel’s defense minister, as “outrageous”.
Perhaps for the sake of a show of ‘balance’ – the ICC prosecutor is also seeking arrest warrants for Hamas top political and military leadership. However, that Israel is being targeted is a history-setting development.
* * *
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has pulled the trigger on issuing its controversial arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after months of speculation it may not go through with it amid a Washington pressure campaign. Its chief prosecutor Karim Khan revealed Monday that the world court is seeking arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel who are executing the war in Gaza, also including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Monday’s action marks the first time ever that the Hague-based court has targeted a national leader of a close US ally. Netanyahu is now set to be on the court’s ‘wanted’ list alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The prosecutor said that there were “reasonable grounds to believe Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bears criminal responsibility for war crimes, crimes against humanity” and that an application is being filed Monday. The ICC judges are set to review the applications submitted by Khan for the arrest warrants for they formally go into effect.
Kahn further announced that the charges stem from the crimes of “causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.”
The ICC is also seeking the arrest warrant of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and Mohammed Deif, leader of the Al-Qassem Brigades, and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas.
As for the three Hamas leaders, they are being sought over the Oct.7 terror attacking, and war crimes including murder, the kidnapping of hostages, as sexual abuse.
“Today we have applied for warrants to the pretrial chamber of the international criminal court in relation to three individuals who are Hamas members,” Kahn announced of the listing Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh.
Monday’s announcement from the Hague constitutes a huge reputational shock and black eye for Israel on the world stage as it struggles to bat down growing international criticism over the soaring civilian casualties in Gaza. It has increasingly witnessed Global South countries especially turn against it, as the anti-Israel boycott movement also grows internationally.
This also will mean Netanyahu could have trouble traveling to certain countries which are signatories of the Rome Statute, or at least he will have to ‘watch out’ when it comes to visits abroad, even when he eventually exits government office. Last year President Putin avoided traveling to South Africa for an important BRICS conference for precisely this, and to ease the pressure on the government of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Below is the introductory section of Khan’s arrest warrant application for the Israeli leaders:
On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin NETANYAHU, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav GALLANT, the Minister of Defence of Israel, bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 8 October 2023:
- Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;
- Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Wilful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);
- Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;
- Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);
- Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).
- end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine Launched Its Largest-Ever Drone Attack On Russia While Putin Was In China
SATURDAY, MAY 18, 2024 – 03:45 PM
In what appears an intentionally-timed message, Ukraine’s military launched its largest-ever drone attack on Russian territory while President Putin was visiting China where he held two days of meetings with Xi Jinping.
“Fifty-one UAVs were destroyed and intercepted over Crimea, 44 over the Krasnodar region, six over the Belgorod region and one over Kursk region,” Russia’s defense ministry announced of the Friday attack.
This means well over 100 kamikaze drones were sent across several regions, particularly around Belgorod and the Black Sea. Given the Kremlin is claiming its forces intercepted that amount, the total number of UAVs deployed across the border was likely far and above that figure, perhaps even double, as clearly some made it through anti-air defenses.
“Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a mother and child were killed while traveling in a car, and authorities managed to extinguish the fire at the Tuapse refinery,” as cited in Fox News. “The child was in critical condition. Doctors did everything possible to save him,” Gladkov said.
Sevastopol was forced to cancel all schools and classes, and to close public buildings, and there was confirmation of damage there.
Ukraine is apparently seeking to retaliate for Russia’s ongoing major Kharkiv offensive, while Putin has linked the new Russian operation to push deeper into the northeast sector of Ukraine with pro-Kiev forces’ constant cross-border drone attacks and shelling.
Dozens of Russians have been killed and wounded in Belgorod over the last several months. When asked about the worsening situation, Putin told a press briefing in Harbin, China on Friday that “what is happening on the Kharkiv front is their own fault.”
Referencing places like Belgorod city, Putin says “Civilians are dying there” – explaining that “It’s obvious… they are shooting directly at the city center, at residential areas. And I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a buffer zone. That is what we are doing.”
Russian media has reported that the aim is to establish this buffer zone at least 10km within Ukrainian territory, making it more difficult for Ukraine forces to shell Russian villages and cities. According to more of Moscow’s intentions in the region via Russian state media:
Russia has no intention of capturing the Ukrainian city of Kharkov, which is close to the Russian border, President Vladimir Putin has said. Moscow’s forces have been making notable gains in the area in recent days.
Speaking to reporters at the Harbin Institute of Technology during his two-day visit to China, Putin commented on Russia’s operations in Kharkov Region, asserting that Moscow is achieving success on the battlefield by acting “strictly according to plan.”
Also on Friday Ukraine’s President Zelensky warned the public that Russia’s summer assault “could consist of several waves. There was the first wave” in the Kharkiv region, and that the country should brace for more.
Zelensky is meanwhile still claiming his goal is still the “liberation of Crimea”…
“Zelensky said that after deoccupation, Crimea will become one of the best places to live in Europe: “It will definitely be – when the power of our resilience, our weapons, our diplomacy and the power of justice for Ukraine will ensure the liberation of Crimea from occupation. The peninsula, which is destined to become one of the best places to live in Europe, will be exactly that – certainly without Russia.” https://pravda.com.ua/news/2024/05/18/7456440/…
·https://x.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1791865527943442768
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There has lately been widespread media acknowledgement that Ukrainian lines are being pushed back rapidly, and Ukraine officials including Zelensky have lashed out at Western allies for a significant delay in weapons and ammo.
RUSSIA UKRAINE
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
COVID-19 And Vax Contributed To Increase In Rare Autoimmune Disease In 2021: Study
SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Cases of a rare autoimmune disease surged between 2020 and 2022 in Yorkshire, England, peaking in 2021. COVID-19 infection and its vaccines possibly contributed to the rise, a recent study in The Lancet’s eBioMedicine found.
The disease—melanoma differentiation-associated protein-5 (anti-MDA5) positive dermatomyositis, or anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis—is an inflammatory disease characterized by muscle weakness, skin rashes, and rapidly progressive lung disease.
Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis is very rare.
In 2019, Yorkshire, which has a population of 3.6 million, reported two people testing positive for the disease. In 2020, there were nine. Cases peaked in 2021 with 35 new cases. The number then dropped to 16 new cases in 2022.
The new autoimmune cases may have arisen from the COVID-19 virus and vaccine RNA interactions, the study’s senior author, Dr. Dennis McGonagle, clinical professor of medicine at the University of Leeds, told The Epoch Times.
Besides the Lancet study, several case studies have documented new anti-MDA5 cases following COVID-19 infection or vaccination.
What Is Anti-MDA5 Dermatomyositis
Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis is an autoimmune condition in which the body attacks itself. It can often appear without a clear cause.
Dermatomyositis tends to affect the skin, muscles, and lungs. Anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis involves rapidly progressive lung disease, which lends the condition a poor prognosis.
MDA5 is a protein present outside of muscles and tissues, especially prominent in the lungs. Therefore, when the body forms anti-MDA5 antibodies to attack MDA5, it can deteriorate related organs and tissues.
MDA5 can detect and bind to foreign RNA, including COVID-19 RNA. Upon detection, it signals other immune cells to fight the foreign invader or vaccination.
“We think that … [this happens] because MDA5 is the receptor or docking site for viral RNA, and that this in some way triggers the antibody against it,” Dr. McGonagle said.
In a COVID-19 infection, MDA5’s binding to RNA can result in too much MDA5 activity as a response, Dr. Pradipta Ghosh, director of the Institute for Network Medicine at the University of California–San Diego and another corresponding author of the study, told The Epoch Times.
COVID-19 patients were shown to have high MDA5 gene activity in their lung fluids, further suggesting that the virus might have triggered new MDA5 cases.
Apart from anti-MDA5, 15 other autoantibodies can contribute to similar dermatomyositis diseases. The role of MDA5 in COVID-19 infection and vaccination may explain why, during the pandemic, only anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis cases increased while other autoantibodies involved in dermatomyositis did not.
Between 2020 and 2022, all 60 new anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis patients in Yorkshire were evaluated. All developed symptoms.
Over 40 percent developed interstitial lung disease and had a worse prognosis. Half died by the time the study was published.
The authors noted that anti-MDA5 cases during the pandemic presented slightly differently than pre-pandemic cases.
Compared to pre-pandemic, anti-MDA5 cases reported during the pandemic had a lower rate of lung disease and a lower death rate, said Dr. Ghosh. The disease also affected white people as opposed to Asians, who were the more predominant demographic previously.
Pandemic-era patients tend to report skin-related conditions such as rashes, decreased blood flow to fingers, muscle aches, and so on.
Coincidental Rise
The peak of anti-MDA5 cases between April and July 2021 coincided closely with Yorkshire’s uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and occurred during a time of “higher community SARS-CoV-2 positivity during 2021,” the authors reported. Vaccinations started in Yorkshire in January 2021 and dropped off in October.
Around 90 percent of the Yorkshire population was vaccinated, and 49 of the 60 cases had documented COVID-19 vaccination.
Contrastingly, only 15 out of 60 had had a confirmed COVID-19 infection.
While many people tested positive for COVID-19 at the time, the authors noted that anti-MDA5 cases did not rise immediately after a rise in COVID-19 cases.
Other Reports
In addition to the reports in Yorkshire, other studies have shown a link between anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis and COVID-19 and its vaccine.
An Italian case study published in Frontiers in Immunology reported the case of an older, unvaccinated woman who developed anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis a month after her COVID-19 infection. She had joint pain and developed rashes and lesions on her chest, face, and hands.
The authors argued that MDA5, which is involved in the activation of various cytokines, may precipitate inflammatory reactions when exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
Another paper published in SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine reported an anti-MDA5 dermatomyositis case that occurred a week after COVID-19 vaccination. The researchers hypothesized that antibodies to spike proteins on the SARS-CoV-2 virus may cross-react with human proteins like MDA5.
However, Dr. Ghosh said that while spike protein has been implicated in other autoimmune diseases, anti-MDA5 disease is caused by antibodies against MDA5, not spike.
“I believe that we have a lot of work to do before we can begin to understand why or how our body responds to this virus, its particles, its RNA/protein—even the RNA encoding its key components we use as vaccine in the plethora of ways that it does,” she explained.
Ex-CDC Director Says It’s High Time to Admit ‘Significant Side Effects’ of COVID-19 Vaccines
‘We kind of got cancelled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that there was a problem from the vaccines,’ Dr. Robert Redfield said.
146
Save
Then director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr. Robert Redfield, holds up a document while testifying in Washington, DC, on Sept. 16, 2020 in (Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)
By Tom Ozimek
5/17/2024
Updated:
5/17/2024PrintX 1
0:00
Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said Thursday that many officials who tried to warn the public about potential problems with COVID-19 vaccines were pressured into silence and that it’s high time to admit that there were “significant” side effects that made people sick.
Dr. Redfield made the remarks in a May 16 interview with Chris Cuomo on NewsNation, during which he lamented the loss of public confidence in public health agencies because of a lack of transparency around the vaccines, which he said “saved a lot of lives” but also made some people “quite ill.”
“Those of us that tried to suggest there may be significant side effects from vaccines … we kind of got canceled because no one wanted to talk about the potential that there was a problem from the vaccines, because they were afraid that that would cause people not to want to get vaccinated,” Dr. Redfield said.
In his role as head of the CDC, Dr. Redfield was part of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, a project to surge COVID-19 vaccine development at a time during the pandemic when little was known about the virus and rapid vaccine rollout was widely seen as key to getting the outbreak under control and lockdowns lifted.
In September 2020, a few months before the first COVID-19 vaccines were given in the United States, Dr. Redfield testified before the Senate that COVID-19 represented the “most significant public health challenge to face our nation in more than a century,” and that the prevailing view among scientists at the time was that the overall case fatality rate of the disease was somewhere between 0.4 and 0.6 percent in the United States.
“If you were to look right now, individuals under the age of 18, it’s about 0.01 percent, 19 to say 69, it’s more like 0.3 percent. And if you’re over the age of 70, it’s about 5 percent now,” he testified at the time.
While there’s lingering controversy about the severity of COVID-19, a recent study estimates that the global case fatality rate was 8.5 percent in February 2020 but had plunged to 0.27 percent in August 2022, meaning that the estimated relative risk reduction over that time was a whopping 96.8 percent.
In his interview on NewsNation, Dr. Redfield said that the vaccines that were developed as part of Operation Warp Speed were “important” and saved “a lot of lives.” However, despite their benefits, the drawbacks of the vaccines must be a matter of open discussion, he said.
“They’re important for the most vulnerable people, those over 60, 65 years of age. They really aren’t that critical for those that are under 50 or younger. But those vaccines saved a lot of lives, but they also—we have to be honest, some people got significant side effects from the vaccine,” he said.
“I have a number of people that are quite ill and they never had COVID, but they are ill from the vaccine,” he continued. “And we just have to acknowledge that.”
Vaccine Controversy
The severity of COVID-19 remains a matter of debate because it’s unclear whether deaths were overcounted or undercounted due to various factors, such as lack of clarity around the role of underlying medical conditions in fatalities in cases where COVID-19 was listed as the primary cause, or underreporting of asymptomatic infections. Aside from the issue of whether people died “from” COVID-19 or “with” a positive test for SARS-CoV-2, there have also been questions about the role of secondary pneumonia caused by mechanical ventilation.
Either way, a study from January 2023 indicates that the global case fatality rate from COVID-19 has dropped dramatically over the course of the pandemic. Global case fatalities ranged from 1.7 to 39.0 percent in February to March of 2020, according to the study—but fell to below 0.3 percent in July to August 2022.
The researchers estimate that the risk of death from COVID-19 has dropped by 96.8 percent over the course of the pandemic.
Along with a decline in COVID-19 fatalities, there have been growing concerns about vaccine side effects, given that a significant number of vaccinated people have reported various adverse reactions.
The most common COVID-19 vaccine adverse events are those that affect the body generally, with fever, fatigue, and overall discomfort being the top three, according to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). But there are others.
For instance, heart muscle inflammation (myocarditis) and inflammation of the lining outside the heart (pericarditis) have both officially been acknowledged by the CDC as a known side effect of Moderna’s and Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.
Nervous system disorders have also been reported, with such disorders being the third most common in the Pfizer trials, coming after general and muscle-related adverse events.
There have also been papers linking spike-protein-based COVID-19 vaccines to skin problems, a dull ringing in the ears known as tinnitus, visual impairments, blood clotting, and even death. Recent reporting from EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders“ program indicates that the likelihood of death associated with COVID-19 vaccines (in close proximity to the shot rather than proven as caused by it) was over 100 times greater than for flu vaccines.
There are also concerns about a post-vaccination jump in excess deaths and disability.
The CDC still recommends that people of all ages receive a COVID-19 vaccine, saying that the potential side effects do not outweigh the potential harms of getting sick with COVID-19.
In a notice published in late April, the agency again called for adults aged 65 and older to get the latest version of the vaccines.
END
CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Paging Dr. Malone, paging Albert Bourla? are you home? Bancel? Weissman? any of you miscreants? Can you explain this case to us please? “Fatal Post COVID mRNA-Vaccine Associated Cerebral Ischemia”
This is your technology & vaccine; so can you help? a 30-year-old female who died after your shot…help, IF YOU CAN, note to you, she DIED, so don’t fuss re law-suit, her death & LIABILITY PREP ACT
MAY 17, 2024
Yes, LIABILITY PREP ACT protects you and the sad reality she has died…maybe her family will punish you beasts in some manner legally! I don’t know.
Fatal Post COVID mRNA-Vaccine Associated Cerebral Ischemia – PubMed (nih.gov)
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Subscribe
‘Case summary: 24 hrs after receiving her first dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, a 30-year-old female developed severe headache. Three weeks later she was admitted with subacute headache and confusion. Imaging initially showed scattered cortical thrombosis with an elevated opening pressure on lumbar puncture. An external ventricular drain was placed, but she continued to have elevated intracranial pressure. Ultimately, she required a hemicraniectomy, but intractable cerebral edema resulted in her death. Pathology was consistent with thrombosis and associated inflammatory response.
Conclusion: Though correlational, her medical team surmised that the mRNA vaccine may have contributed to this presentation. The side effects of COVID-19 infection and vaccination are still incompletely understood. Though complications are rare, clinicians should be aware of presentations like this one.’
This is one case and a case report, associational. Yet temporal relationship, biological plausibility, specificity and other aspects of Bradford Hill’s criteria for establishing causation can be met.
end
Amoxicillin-Clavulanate (Augmentin), Doxycycline, Azithromycin etc.; critical powerful antibiotics & fraud fake COVID non-pandemic near prohibited access even from pharmacists, so put in your medicine
chest, The Wellness Company (TWC) makes these available by prescription in this EMERGENCY PREP kit (NOT a pandemic kit as we have no pandemics) & you should consider for your own supply
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 18 |
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1)Medical Emergency Preparation Kit:
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CDC Admits Covid Shots Killed 500,000 Children & Young Adults
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A United Nations scientist has called for billions of human beings around the world to be “culled” in order to “save the planet” from “global warming.”
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House Oversight Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, has once again issued a subpoena to Alejandro Mayorkas, the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. This latest subpoena requests records from Immigration and Customs Enforcement. It is worth noting that this is the third subpoena that Jordan has sent to the DHS chief in recent months. In December, …
READ THE FULL REPORT
NEWS ADDICT
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Rate Hawk Down
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 12:20 PM
By Benjamin Picton, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
Bonds sold off on Friday and the NASDAQ closed a smidgen lower. Both the S&P500 and the Dow Jones managed minor gains, with the Dow’s outperformance again suggesting that equities continue to trade on sensitivity to discount rates. Two-year yields rose 3bps on Friday while 10-year yields managed a gain of 4.7bps, bear-steepening the curve.
Brent crude is trading just a touch above Friday’s close of $83.98/bbl, despite news over the weekend that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is missing after a helicopter carrying both he and Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian crashed in mountainous terrain in the country’s north-west. Latest reports suggest that the wreckage has been spotted by search teams, but that no signs of life have yet been detected.
While there is no suggestion of foul play, it is certainly not ideal for senior Iranian political figures to be involved in helicopter accidents while tensions between Israel and Iran remain in a heightened state. The Economist has suggested that if Raisi has been killed it could set off a power struggle in Iran as he was a leading candidate to become the eventual successor for Supreme Leader Khameini. Nevertheless, the reaction in the energy complex suggests that traders remain untroubled by the news.
Shifting to interest rate world, the post-CPI jubilation had clearly begun to wane at the end of last week as a number of Fed speakers took turns watering down the proverbial punch bowl. Mester, Williams and Barkin all talked down the prospects for rate cuts, suggesting that possibly, maybe, it might be appropriate to cut rates before the end of the year. Or it might not.
Mester – one of the FOMC’s more hawkish members – will be stepping down at the end of June. She scores +1 on Bloomberg Economics’ hawk/dove spectrometer. Under the FOMC’s current composition, the Spectrometer sums to zero (neither hawkish nor dovish), which means that the incoming President of the Cleveland Fed – who will remain a voting member in 2024 and 2025 –has the potential to tip the Fed’s overall bias in either direction.
Meanwhile, Bowman (perhaps the FOMCs most hawkish member) said that progress on labour market re-balancing has slowed, the Fed is monitoring to see if policy is sufficiently restrictive, and she is willing to hike again if inflation rises.
We could forgive Fed speakers for couching tentative predictions of future rate cuts in caveats around the potential for inflation to rise again. Last week’s CPI – while welcome – was the first release in three months that didn’t surprise to the upside. After the Powell pivot late last year sparked frenzied speculation of the timing and quantum of rate cuts, it only seems wise to be a little more circumspect this time around when the data falls the Fed’s way.
Indeed, the Bloomberg commodities index is warning not to write inflation’s obituary just yet. It has been rallying since February and is now at its highest reading since October last year. Cocoa has pulled back substantially since its April highs, as have cotton, sugar and coffee, but these have been more than offset by recent runups in aluminium, nickel, copper, silver, iron ore, steel, orange juice concentrate, soybeans, wheat, beef, gold, natural gas and diesel, while the recent ban on enriched uranium imports from Russia could also add to price pressures in the nuclear fuels supply chain. Higher commodity prices are obviously unhelpful while core services inflation remains a problem.
Overall, it seems that we’re back to “waiting for more data” for the time being, but the May FOMC meeting minutes due out later this week will still be a key point of interest for markets.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be another point of interest as it meets to set the official cash rate. No changes are expected from the prevailing 5.50%, but the scheduled release of the Monetary Policy Statement – which includes updated forecasts – will be important for the local market.
The RBNZ has established a reputation as something of a bellwether for global interest rate cycles. With the economy in recession and the labour market showing recent signs of rapid softening, it will be worth keeping an eye on whether the RBNZ flags the possibility of an earlier cut to the policy rate than their current mid-2025 guidance.
The minutes of the RBA’s May policy meeting are also due to be released this week and may provide a point of contrast. While the RBNZ has the luxury of a singular focus on inflation, the RBA must reconcile its price stability objective with a full-employment mandate. That probably goes some way toward explaining the absence of any hawkish tilt from the RBA in May, even as Q1 inflation and labour market data prior to the meeting had been surprising on the strong side.
As Leonard Nimoy once said “if you chase two rabbits, you will lose them both”.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0873 UP .0006
USA/ YEN 155.70 UP 0.111 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2704 UP .0004
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3616 UP .0005 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.12 PTS OR 0.54%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 82.61 PTS OR 0.9192%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED U[ 0.62 %
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 82.81 OR 0.92%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.12 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.83%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 132.88 PTS OR 0.62%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2435.45
silver:$31..84
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 104.37 UP 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.146% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.971% UP 2 AND 8/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.283 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.815 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5375 UP 3 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0861 DOWN 0.0006 OR 6 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.11 UP .525 OR YEN IS DOWN 53 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 4.2085 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts to 1.3610
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2347 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2456)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.21 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.972…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.4480% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.596 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.841 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2423.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 31.90
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 3.94 PTS OR 0.05%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 64.52 PTS OR 0.35%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 28.47 PTS OR .35 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 11.80 OR 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED down 573.81 PTS OR 1.62 PTS
WTI Oil price 80.84 12EST/
Brent Oil: 83.90 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.76 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 18/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5375 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2085 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0862 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2707 UP 0.0007 OR 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.210 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .967%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.25 UP 0.666/ YEN DOWN 67 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3622 UP 0011 //CDN dollar DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.71
Brent OIL: 83.71
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.446
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 4.581%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.846
USA dollar index: 104.48 UP 15 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 20 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.75 UP 0 AND 20//100 roubles
GOLD 2,429.15 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.90 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 195.90 PTS OR 0.49 %
NASDAQ UP 127.96 PTS OR 0.69 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.17 UP .18PTS OR 1.50%
GLD: $224.56 UP 0.90 OR 0.40%
SLV/ $28.98 UP .19 OR 0.66%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Cryptos Soar On Ether ETF Hope As Downbeat Dimon Sends Gold To Record-er Highs
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, MAY 20, 2024 – 04:00 PM
A quite macro and micro day saw stocks start off strongly but fade after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon offered his now ubiquitous downbeat view of the foreseeable future.
“I’m cautiously pessimistic. We have the most complicated geopolitical situation that most of us have seen since World War II, if you study history. We don’t really know the full effect of QT. I find it mysterious that, somehow, it had this beneficial effect, but it’s not going to have a negative effect when it goes away. I personally think inflation is a little bigger than people think and that rates may surprise people.”
Stocks were mixed as Nasdaq outperformed (with a big opening bump from Mag7 stocks) but The Dow was the big laggard. S&P fell back to unch and Small Caps ended with a small gain…
After its last second sprint to close above 40,000 on Friday, The Dow just could not hold on…
Mag7 stocks were panic-bid (safe haven?) at the open but faded…
Source: Bloomberg
The story of the day was in ‘alternatives’ though as gold and crypto soared.
The barbarous relic hit a new record high ($2450 Spot)…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver surged back above $32.00 for the first time since 2013…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar limped modestly higher (with a JPY driven spike intraday)…
Source: Bloomberg
And then early gains in crypto accelerated after Bloomberg’s ETF guru Eric Balchunas upgraded his view of Spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (vote expected this week).
That sent Ethereum soaring back above $3400…
Source: Bloomberg
…and lifted Bitcoin even further, back with pennies of $70,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the day higher (but only marginally +1-2bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
As rate-cut expectations drifted hawkishly lower, erasing all the dovish CPI jump…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended lower on a choppy day…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, is this the week?
Source: Bloomberg
The vol market is ready for some anxiety…
Source: Bloomberg
But, Goldman is a little worried…Positioning at the US index level is stretched. The Sentiment Indicator (SI) is a measure of aggregate positioning and risk sentiment in the US equity market.
The Sentiment Indicator tracks investor positioning across the more than 80% of the US equity market that is owned by institutional, retail and foreign investors. To calculate the Sentiment Indicator we run a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on six weekly and three monthly indicators that span these three investor types. Readings of +1.0 or higher have historically signaled stretched equity positioning.
And options markets are pricing the lowest correlation expectation in history….
That’s the real ‘fear’ index and its showing absolutely none right now. Investors are fearless.
END
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Out Of Control Inflation: It Now Takes At Least $177,798 For A Family Of 4 To Live Comfortably In The US
FRIDAY, MAY 17, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
I never imagined that we would ever see a time when it takes $177,798 for a family of four to live comfortably in the United States. Unfortunately, that day has arrived. Our leaders have been pursuing highly inflationary policies for many years, and now we have reached a point where inflation is wildly out of control. In fact, the latest wholesale inflation figure that was released on Tuesday came in much higher than expected. Sadly, this is just the beginning and we are in far more trouble than most people realize.
According to an incredibly shocking new study, most Americans do not make enough money to “live comfortably” in the highly inflationary environment that we find ourselves in today…
A recent study has revealed the incomes needed for families to live comfortably across the United States – and the stark contrast in the cost of living between states is startling.
The study revealed that in the most expensive states, families need nearly $300,000 to simply live ‘comfortably.’
The least expensive state requires about half that salary – still over $100,000.
Meanwhile, the average annual salary in the US is $59,428, or $28.34 per hour, as of May 2024.
The study determined that Massachusetts is the most expensive state.
It takes a whopping $301,184 a year for a family of four to “live comfortably” there.
The least expensive state is Mississippi.
In the Magnolia State, it only takes $177,798 a year for a family of four “to cover their expenses and maintain a satisfactory quality of life”.
This is our country now.
I feel like I have been banging my head into a wall. For more than a decade I have warned that this would happen, and now it is here.
And even more inflation is on the way…
Americans already contending with persistent and stubbornly high inflation just got more unwelcome news on Tuesday: There are more price hikes likely coming down the pike.
Wholesale inflation picked up in April to its highest rate in a year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.
In April, inflation at the wholesale level jumped 0.5 percent in just one month…
Inflation at the wholesale level rose much more than expected in April, the latest sign that price pressures within the economy remain elevated and difficult to tame.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, rose 0.5% in April from the previous month.
If you multiply that figure by 12 months, you get 6 percent.
And of course you need to approximately double any number that the Biden administration gives us in order to come up with a figure that is anywhere close to accurate.
By now, just about everyone realizes that the rate of inflation in this country is massively understated.
For example, Joe Biden insists that the rate of inflation has been “low” for quite some time, but home prices have risen by more than 47 percent since the start of this decade…
Home prices have surged 47.1% since the start of 2020, easily outstripping the gains seen in recent decades.
That’s according to a recent analysis by ResiClub of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which showed that house prices in the 1990s and 2010s grew a respective 30.1% and 44.7%.
Let’s all be honest with one another.
The truth is that we are in the midst of a raging cost of living crisis that has no end in sight.
And this should not surprise any of us. Our politicians continue to borrow and spend trillions upon trillions of dollars, and all of this borrowing and spending is extremely inflationary…
An economic specter haunts America. It’s also one that many American politicians – Republican and Democrat – say a great deal about but are reluctant to address.
The name of that shadow is the United States National Debt: what the US Treasury Department defines as “the amount of money the Federal Government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time.”
If you go to the Treasury’s website, you can see just how big that debt is. In mid-May, it was 34.5 trillion dollars. The pace of the growth in that debt is equally stunning. Approximately 1 trillion dollars is being added to America’s National Debt every 100 days.
Borrowing and spending another trillion dollars every 100 days is a completely and utterly insane thing to do.
We really are in the endgame.
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that interest rates may have to stay high for an extended period of time in order to fight inflation…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that “it may take longer than expected” for high interest rates to lower inflation and gave no hint that a recently slowing labor market could mean earlier rate cuts.
“We’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work,” Powell said during a session at a Foreign Bankers Association meeting in Amsterdam. “It may be that (high interest rates) take longer than expected to do its work and bring inflation down.”
So far, higher rates have not solved our cost of living crisis, and that is because our politicians continue to spend money like drunken sailors.
But higher rates are crushing the overall economy.
Yesterday, I wrote about the “restaurant apocalypse” that is starting to sweep across America.
This week, it got even worse.
We just learned that at least 99 Red Lobster locations have been shut down and will be auctioned off…
At least 99 locations of Red Lobster are being auctioned off amid questions about the stalwart seafood chain’s long-term future.
In a post Monday on LinkedIn, Neal Sherman, founder and CEO of TAGeX Brands, a liquidation firm, announced he was leading the closure of more than 50 Red Lobster locations, with the restaurants’ equipment to be auctioned off.
A web page dedicated to the liquidations showed closure locations across the U.S. including in Denver; Indianapolis; Rochester, New York; Sacramento, California; San Antonio; and San Diego.
On Tuesday, Restaurant Business Magazine reported 99 locations were closing.
For the Red Lobster workers that just lost their jobs, the end came very suddenly…
A third Red Lobster employee took the news in stride, posting: ‘red lobster just laid all of us off without notice and closed for good LMAOO.’
The employee added in replied that Red Lobster didn’t tell managers until 8am yesterday.
Of course it isn’t just restaurant chains that are closing locations.
In fact, even Walmart is closing stores and auctioning off inventory…
After announcing that it would be shutting its doors for good, one Ohio Walmart auctioned off its remaining inventory, including flat-screen televisions, laptops and furniture, for a bargain.
The Walmart at 3579 S. High St. in Columbus opted not to renew its lease in a once-bustling strip plaza. Representatives announced the closure in February, claiming the store had failed to ‘meet financial expectations’.
Last week, the store offloaded its merchandise through a liquidation auction. Bidding closed the morning of May 10, with some items like laptops going for under $20.
If interest rates stay high, we are going to see a lot more of this sort of thing.
But the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to cut rates at this point because of the cost of living crisis.
Officials at the Fed really are caught in a “deer in the headlights” moment right now.
But no matter which way they ultimately choose to go, in the short-term more “stagflation” is ahead.
And in the long-term, the exceedingly foolish policies that our leaders have been pursuing are going to result in a systemic collapse of absolutely epic proportions.
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Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
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SWAMP NEWS
Judge in Trump New York Trial Appears to Be Accepting BRIBES from Democrats through Daughter’s Company
HAL TURNER NATION MAY 17, 2024 HITS: 12572
The New York felony Trial of former President Donald Trump continues. However, it appears from federal election records, the Judge in the case may be accepting Bribes from Democrats through his daughter’s political consulting company.
Investigative Journalist Laura Loomer reports that she “. . .was searching through Democrat Congressman Dan Goldman’s FEC disclosure forms for his campaign disbursements.” Loomer goes on to report “YOU WON’T BELIEVE WHAT I FOUND! THIS COULD CHANGE THE ENTIRE TRUMP TRIAL!”
After reviewing the records of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) Loomer reports “According to FEC records, the address that NY Democrat Congressman sends his checks to when he pays “Authentic Campaign” is a Richmond, Virginia address that happens to be the personal home residence of Loren Merchan; Judge Merchan’s daughter.
Loren Merchan is the President of Authentic Campaign and her father is overseeing Trump’s trial in NYC.”
Loomer then reveals that Democrat Congressman Dan Goldman (D-NY) “Deceptively” documented payments he has been making to Judge Merchan’s daughter in Goldman’s campaign reports to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Loomer writes: “Additionally, the record in the @FEC [Federal Election Commission] was documented by Democrat New York Congressman Dan Goldman deceptively as “Authentic Campaign” instead of “Authentic Campaigns”, deliberately leaving the S off the end as a way to cover up the fact that Congressman Dan Goldman, who admitted on MSNBC last week to prepping ManhattanDA Alvin Bragg’s Star witness Michael Cohen before his testimony in the Trump trial, has been sending his payments to THE PERSONAL HOME ADDRESS OF JUDGE MERCHAN’S DAUGHTER.
Then Loomer releases the actual Documents:
Federal Election Commission Reports from Democrat Congressman Dan Goldman:
Loomer goes on to report: “I have blurred out the address so I don’t get accused of Doxxing, but the address on the Schedule B FEC form for Congressman Dan Goldman as it relates to independent expenditures to “Authentic Campaign” is the same address listed in the Richmond, Virginia Department of Real Estate Assessor database, which lists the address as the personal residence for Loren Merchan and her husband Taylor Murray Harper.
The home Loren Merchan lives in where the Democrat Congressman (who advised Michael Cohen before his testimony in Trump’s trial which her father is overseeing) is sending her payments is a 2 story home with a value of $639,000.
Records show NY Democrat Congressman Dan Goldman has sent Loren Merchan over $162,091.92, with the last payment being made on March 26, 2024, right before the #TrumpTrial began on April 15th, 2024.
Loomer concludes “Worth noting that the office HQs for Authentic Campaigns is based out of Chicago and DC, which means there’s no reason why payments should be going to Loren Merchan’s personal home residence. This is beyond improper!!!! Judge Merchan should be DISBARRED!“
Hal Turner Editorial Opinion
So a New York State Supreme Court Judge, allows a case to go forward against a former President of the United States, under a legal theory that an uncharged, unprosecuted, and unproven FEDERAL “Crime,” allows the State of New York to bring Felony charges for “Altering/Forging Business Records” by paying “hush money” to a woman for her to keep quiet about extra-marital sex. Paying money to a person for them engaging in a non-disclosure agreement is lawful and is done many times a year!
The Judge assigned to the case, has a daughter who, politically, is a big Trump Hater, and who runs her own political consulting firm.
Congressman Dan Goldman, a Democrat, and another rabid Trump Hater, then starts dispersing his campaign funds to this daughter of the Judge, to the tune of about $162,000.
The Judge, from allowing the bogus legal theory to move forward, handles the entire case in a biased manner aggressively against the former President, including issuing a Gag Order preventing the former President from responding to public challenges or from criticizing “. . . the judges family . . . ” and the whole world is supposed to believe that the $162,000 paid by the Democrat to the Judge’s daughter, didn’t get the Judge to behave this way?
Sorry, I don’t buy it. The fact that Judge Merchan issued a Gag Order to silence Trump about the Judge’s FAMILY, seems to me to have been a deliberate act to prevent Trump from revealing these payments to the Judge’s Daughter. The Gag Order is why I think these payments to the Judge’s daughter are BRIBES.
Based on the diligent efforts of Laura Loomer, it appears to me the Judge got bribed by a Democrat Congressman through the Judge’s daughter.
HOWEVER . . . even if the payments by the Democrat Congressman were completely innocent – and I don’t think they were – the fact that this Judge’s daughter is a big political operative blazingly against the former President, and is getting paid all this cash from Democrats who are also blazingly against the former President, seems to me to have the absolute APPEARANCE of impropriety.
Moreover, if these payments by Congressman Goldman are **not** bribes to the judge, then perhaps it’s reverse? Could it be a sort of soft Extortion? Could the Democrats say to Judge Merchan “We’re giving your daughter a lot of money and if you want your precious little girl to keep getting that money, you’d better do what WE want . . . . .”?
All this is a bit too much to allow. It seems to me that, at best, this situation reeks of the APPEARANCE of impropriety. At mid-range, it LOOKS like Bribery. At worst, it may ACTUALLY BE Bribery.
Judge Merchan should either recuse himself, or be Administratively, lawfully, and peacefully removed from the case, by the proper authority within the New York Court System.NEXT ARTICLE: UPDATED (AGAIN) 10:44 PM EDT — URGENT – RUSSIA CONDUCTING MISSILE LAUNCHES OFF CALIFORNIA COASTLINENEXT
KING REPORT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING
Demonic Globalist Elite Starting World War III – Steve Quayle
By Greg Hunter On May 19, 2024
Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle has amassed a deep network of sources, especially in the military. Quayle is hearing that America is closer to nuclear war than it has ever been. Quayle says, “This is a detonation broadcast because of everything that is ready to explode: in the economy, in the world of WWIII, the events taking place in Ukraine and the events taking place off of the West Coast of the United States. Never in the history of the United States and Russia have we had multiple submarines, strategic missile submarines doing tests in international waters warning the US government, especially the FAA and the Pentagon, that they are going to be using dummy warheads. . . . Here is the striking thing about this. The United States, Western Europe and the NATO confederation have declared in the next 10 days they are going to be moving up to 90,000 men onto the border in Ukraine. We have declared that F-16’s (that can carry nuclear missiles) are going into Ukraine. . . . or around Ukraine. Russia has said that when they touch down, they will hit them on the ground. What is more astonishing is the time period for this test missile launch is also 10 days. It syncs up totally with NATO’s time frame to deploy troops and F-16’s. . . .Russia is the leading nuclear power in the world, and they have advanced technology, such as hypersonic missiles we, the United States, do not possess. . . . We are talking about somebody making the wrong decision, and at that point, it’s WWIII from then on. This is not a military exercise.”Quayle says there are no peace talks to cool things down and deescalate tensions. Quayle points out, “Everybody wants war, and it’s the West triggering the war. You get into the Deagel Report and there is going to be 250 million less Americans by 2025. This means the population of the United States is going down to around 90 million to 100 million people. The Deagel Report was funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, and how did they know this? It’s simple, we are watching the globalists and the elite initiate World War III. . . . The Russians have told us their time of patience is over. We need to talk about how dangerous this is. One wrong move and everything you have known in the United States, our freedoms are over. . . . I am fighting for the undoing of World War III. We have some, and I won’t call them insane, I would call them ‘demonic infectons.’ . . . . They are running the country. . . . A demon is a disembodied evil spirit. This is not a human being.”Quayle says another huge warning sign that something is very wrong on multiple levels is the Friday closing price of gold and silver. Gold is now well over $2,400 an ounce after a nearly $40 per ounce run-up before the weekend. Silver is more than $31 per ounce after nearly an 8% jump on Friday. Quayle says, “Nobody wants to be short metals over the weekend. This is a sign people are worried.”Quayle also says, “Russia is saying we are 300 miles off your coast, and by the way, we are going to be launching some missiles. The Russians are demonstrating they have the capability, and in my opinion, this is the last step. They are pissed off at NATO. They are pissed off at Great Britian, and they are totally pissed off at the United States.”In closing, Quayle says, “People ask me what shall I do? And I say there is an answer, and his name is Jesus. There is a Bible, and God says call me on the day of your trouble, and I will hear you. I am telling people to get right with the Lord. . . . The United States declared war on the Living God, and the Democrats and the Zombie Cons went along with it. . . . If you are looking for a political solution for a spiritual problem, you are already dead.”There is much more in the 1-hour and 11-minute in-depth interview.There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm.You can get more information at Sat123.com or BeReady123.com.Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Steve Quayle as he warns of nuclear war that could cripple America and change it forever 5.18.24.https://rumble.com/embed/v4tea29/?pub=4-END-
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SEE YOU TOMORROW
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