MAY 24 BLOG//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.25 TO $2333.75//SILVER WAS UP 10 CENTS TO $30.33//PLATINUM WAS UP $7,15 TO $1030,95 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $1.70 TO $969.90//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//CHINA BEGINS ITS DE DOLLARIZATION AS WELL AS ISSUES TARIFF ORDERS ON EV CARS FROM THE UK AND US//ECONOMIC WARS BETWEEN CHINA ET AL INTENSIFIES/ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/ DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS.EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA DATA REPORTS:DURABLE GOODS SUFFER A BIG DOWNTURN//U. MICHIGAN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS SUFFERS ANOTHER DOWNTURN//JEFFRY TUCKER COMMENTARY ON INFLATION//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2334.30

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.34

Bitcoin morning price:$67,477 DOWN 28 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $69,040 UP 1563 dollars

Platinum price closing  UP 7.15 TO $1030.95

Palladium price; DOWN $1.70 AT $969.90

END

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

Last Updated 24 May 2024 09:10:39 AM CT.

Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.

MONTHCHARTLASTCHANGEPRIOR
SETTLE
OPENHIGHLOWVOLUMEUPDATED
MAY 2024
SGUK4
2350.7008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
JUN 2024
SGUM4
2365.8+1.0 (+0.04%)2364.82350.42366.52350.137608:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
JUL 2024
SGUN4
2378.9008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
AUG 2024
SGUQ4
2379.1908:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
OCT 2024
SGUV4
2403.4008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
DEC 2024
SGUZ4
2404.0008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
FEB 2025
SGUG5
2404.6008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024
APR 2025
SGUJ5
2405.2008:50:01 CT
24 May 2024

About this Report

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

DONATE

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END

EXCH: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,335.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/23/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 05/28/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


737 C ADVANTAGE 4
880 H CITIGROUP 4


TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 2,371

ACCESS MARKET

TOTAL: 162 162

JPMorgan stopped 0/4

FOR MAY2024 


FOR  MAY:

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.25

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.36TONNES

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.10 AT  THE SLV//

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .822 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV

// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 421.313 MILLION OZ/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI SHOCKINGLY FELL BY SMALL SIZED 180 CONTRACTS TO 184,732 AND CONTINUING ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $1.00 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE.  WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 741 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID LIKE TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 741 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND TODAY;S RAID.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $1.00) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 859 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.00.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD:

A HUGE SIZED 1039 CONTRACT  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.130MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 340,000 OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY IS THUS 30.680 MILLION OZ 

WE HAD:

/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 741 CONTRACTS)/

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 DAYS, total 23,156 contracts:   OR 115.780 MILLION OZ  (1286 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  115.780 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 115.780 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 180 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1039 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY OF  29.345 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 340,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING AT 30.680 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 859  OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 741 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF SHORTS. 

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (741) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .

WE HAD 87 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 435,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9004 OI CONTRACTS  TO 505,445 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (9004 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $53.00  IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER, INITIATING THURSDAY’S RAID. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 3700 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS WE MUST ADD THAT DUBIOUS ISSUANCE OF 1084 OI EX FOR RISK CONTRACTS ISSUES ON LAST FRIDAY WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES RISK OF 3.3716 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO  8.5598 TONNES PLUS THE DUBIOUS 3.3716 ECH FOR RISK!

NEW STANDING 11.8961 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $53,00 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A VERY FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1381 OI CONTRACTS (4.245 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,385 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 505,445

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1381 CONTRACTS  WITH 9004 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,385 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1381 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2999 CONTRACTS,,

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (10,385 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI 9004/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1381 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 4.684 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 3700 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK//PRIOR

 / 3) CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS MOSTLY DUE TO SPREADERS ALONG WITH SOME MINOR LONG SPECS BEING WIPED OUT WITH THE LARGE LOSS IN PRICE.

//  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2999 CONTRACTS//

MAY

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 78,921 CONTRACTS OR 7,892,100 OZ OR 245.48 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4031 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  245.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  245.48 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED  180 CONTRACTS OI  TO 184,732 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1039 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 1858  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1039 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 180 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1039 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 859 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 4.295 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $1.00 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.52 PTS OR 0.88% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 259.77 PTS OR 1.39%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 457.11 OR 1.17%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2438 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2587/ Oil DOWN TO 76.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.82 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9004 CONTRACTS  TO 505,445 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $53.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY AS WELL AS LONGS BEING CLIPPED.

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 10,385 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 10,385 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:10,385 CONTRACTS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1381 CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,385 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9004 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS SURPISING GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $53.00// THURSDAY COMEX.  AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 2999 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. TODAY IS OF EXTREMELY IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S RAID

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5398 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.8961

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A MASSIVE $53.00 //// BUT WERE QUITE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY FAIR GAIN OF 2333 CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 4.245 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.684 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 37 CONTRACTS OR 3700 OZ ( .1150 TONNES) PLUS 3.3716 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK/PRIOR

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS  IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $53.00

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1381 CONTRACTS OR 138100 (4.245 TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 349,121 contracts// strong

//speculators have left the gold arena

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz



nil OZ





























































 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
00 oz













 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
8680.770 OZ
BRINKS
270 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today 381 notice(s)
38100 OZ
1.185 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  25 contracts 
  2500 OZ
0.0777 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2371 notices
237100 oz
7.374 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  0 oz

we have 0 customer deposit:

total deposit nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 0

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS nil 0z

Adjustments: 1 brinks dealer to customer….289.359 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY

For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 385 contracts having GAINED 198 contracts.

We had 162 contracts served on THURSDAY, so we gained A STRONG 36 contracts or 3600 oz (0.1150 Tonnes). BANKERS USED THE RAID YSTERDAY TO OBTAIN THIS BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL

JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 24,188 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 152,197 CONTRACTS.

JULY GAINED 102 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 671

We had 4 contracts filed for today representing 400  oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX84XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,548,842.069  48.17 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,563,550.534 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,314,146.996 ( 227.50 tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,249,403.530 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,765,304 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 179.33 tonnes //dropping like a stone

END

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory


303,844.550 oz
brinks
delaware
















































































































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ

















 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory







nil



























 












































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)87 CONTRACT(S)  
 (435,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)33 contracts 
(0.165 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)6103 Contracts
 (30.515 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 deposits customer account:

total customer deposit nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.997million oz/298.514 million  or 43.28%

adjustment: 0

Comex withdrawals: 2

i)brinks 297,788.150 oz

ii delaware 6056.400 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 61.566MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 298.514 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY/2024 OI: 120 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 61 CONTRACT(S). 

.

We had 7 notices served on THURSDAY so we GAINED A HUGE 68 contracts or 340,000 oz underwent a STRONG QUEUE JUMP AS THEY WERE SET TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 189 CONTRACTS RISING TO 1720

JULY SAW A LOSS OF 543 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 146,685

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 87 for 435,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 118,603 mammoth

There are 61.566 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

MAY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.36 TONNES

MAY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES

MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES

MAY 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $12,00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES

MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $21.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.10 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 838.54 TONNES

MAY 17 WITH GOLD UP $31.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES

MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES

MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES

MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

///INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES

MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES

MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES

MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES

MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES

 MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES

MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES

MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES

APRIL 29WITH GOLD UP $10,55TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES

APRIL 26WITH GOLD UP $5.40TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES

APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES

APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES

APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES

APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES

APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES

APRIL 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $. 80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 824.84 TONNES

APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY  24 WITH SILVER UP $0.10  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF .822 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 421.313 MILLION OZ

MAY  23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.736 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVINVENTORY INCREASES TO 420.491 MILLION OZ

MAY  22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.66  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ

MAY  21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.41  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 3.792 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ

MAY  20 WITH SILVER UP $1.28  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.005 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 418.435 MILLION OZ

MAY  17 WITH SILVER UP $1.37  TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 868,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 419.440 MILLION OZ

MAY  16 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ

MAY  15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ

MAY  14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;

INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ

MAY  13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;NVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ

MAY  10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ

MAY  9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ

MAY  8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ

MAY  7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ

 MAY  6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ

MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ

MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ

MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ

 APRIL 29WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ

 APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.717 MILLION OZ

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ

APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.88 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Schiff: Silver has New Support At $30

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 01:00 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

In this episode, Peter recounts silver’s notable rise above $30/oz and addresses the latest FOMC minutes that were released this week, in which the Fed signaled that rate cuts could be delayed even further. Peter also calls out the SchiffGold Silver Breakout Sale to celebrate the metal’s long-awaited breakout. 

Silver’s rise to $32.50 on Monday has established a new support level at $30/oz:

“Silver is back down at $30.73. That’s a pretty substantial pullback—about $1.80 or so— from the $32.50 that it traded for on Monday. …That doesn’t mean Silver can’t go below $30, but I think $30 is to silver what $2,000 was to gold. Once we broke up $2,000, $2,000 became support, and yes, every once in a while we dip below $2,000, but we never stayed below it for long, and it quickly came back.”

While the Fed is uncertain about when rate cuts are likely, it’s still signaling a loosening of monetary policy later this year. The market mistakenly sold off gold and silver in response:

“The traders who are selling gold and silver still don’t understand why the prices are rising in the first place. It doesn’t matter when the Fed cuts rates. It doesn’t even matter if they do cut rates. They never have to cut rates. The Fed could leave rates right where they are, and gold and silver prices should skyrocket. Why is that? Because they’re too low. The Fed aborted the hiking campaign too soon, and so it doesn’t matter if they cut rates.”

The Fed pays lip service to raising rates if needed but fails to see that rate hikes are long overdue:

They said that they were prepared to raise rates if the economic data supported that. But that’s not true either, because the economic data already supports that. They’re saying, ‘If the data changes, if something happens and we get new data that shows that higher rates would be appropriate, well, then we’ll raise rates.’ … The data that they’re looking at right now shows that interest rates need to go up. The fact that they’re ignoring that data— and they’re not only not hiking rates, but they’re still talking about when they’re going to cut rates— that proves that they’re never going to hike rates, because if they were going to hike rates, they would be hiking it right now.

Fed officials think economic growth contributes to inflation, but this betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how growth works:

The faster an economy grows, the more prices go down. That’s what economic growth does. That’s why it’s a good thing. It lowers prices. Real economic growth means the economy is producing more stuff, right? That’s the economic growth: we get more goods and more services out of the economy because that’s what a growing economy is supposed to deliver— a higher standard of living. … How can economic growth make prices go up? How can a big increase in the supply of goods and services make those goods and services more expensive? It’s not. It’s going to make them less expensive!”

Peter closes by recounting the history of the U.S. government taking silver out of coins. In the 1960s, Uncle Sam went to a great deal of effort to hide the fact that he was ripping off American citizens:

“Why not just make dimes and quarters with these smooth edges just like pennies and nickels? Because they were counterfeiting the coins! You see, early on, they didn’t tell anybody that they took the silver out. They wanted people to think that the dimes and quarters that they were getting were still made out of silver. That’s why they put the nickel on the copper. That’s why they put mill marks on these copper-clad coins— because they wanted them to look like the coins they used to work with. That’s counterfeit. That is fraud! That is what went on in this country. The government defrauded American citizens out of their lawful silver money.”

In other news, the price of copper has exploded recently. Check out Peter’s Blog for an analysis of copper’s all-time high price.

end

Mike Maharrey

May 24, 2024

The Reserve Bank of India has followed the lead of China and other Eastern central banks and ramped up its accumulation of gold.

According to the latest data released by the RBI, the Indian central bank increased its gold reserves by 24 tons through the first four months of the year. The RBI added 16 tons of gold to its holdings through the entirety of 2023.

The Reserve Bank of India currently holds just over 827 tons of gold in its reserves. India ranks ninth in the world in total gold holdings.

According to a report by FirstPost.com, India is increasing its gold holdings “as a hedge against volatility amid geopolitical tensions and in challenging times,” and gold is “a component of strategic reserve diversification.”

Diversification has become a common theme in the world of central banking. As the U.S. has increasingly used the dollar’s status as the reserve currency as a foreign policy weapon, many countries have elected to minimize their exposure to dollars.

This has driven a broader trend of gold moving from the West to the East and into emerging markets.

The RBI noted this trend in a recent bulletin.

“The heightened global uncertainty is sending emerging market central banks on a spree of buying gold, adding 290 tonnes in the first quarter of 2024 and accounting for a quarter of overall global gold demand. Amid geopolitical developments and a slowing global economy, these central banks are signaling that living in challenging times calls for strategic diversification”

India went on a big gold-buying spree in 2022, adding about 200 tons of gold to its reserves before slowing purchases later in mid-2023. Since resuming purchases late last year, the RBI’s gold holdings have increased from 7.8 percent of its total reserves to 8.7 percent. On top of physical gold purchases, India’s gold holdings are increasing in both dollar and rupee terms thanks to the rising price of gold.

Central banks globally have been gobbling up gold. Last year, central bank gold buying fell just 45 tons short of 2022’s multi-decade record.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks net gold purchases totaled 1,037 tons in 2023. It was the second straight year central banks added more than 1,000 tons to their total reserves.

Central bank gold buying in 2023 built on the prior record year. Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

end

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY

Bullion prices pause…

This pullback in prices might provide the best opportunity buy gold and silver before China’s continuing demand drives them far higher.

MACLEODFINANCEMAY 24∙PAID
 
READ IN APP
 

Gold and silver corrected sharply this week, with gold down $85 from last Friday’s close at $2342 in European trade this morning. And silver was off $1.30 at $30.56 over the same time period. While nominally these appear to be large numbers, in percentage terms and given their recent rises these corrections should be regarded as to be expected.

It is now widely accepted that both metals are being drained out of western vaults to satisfy demand in China. In particular, silver’s volatility indicates that there is an alarming lack of liquidity in western vaults, especially when one bears in mind that the large majority of vaulted gold and silver is custodial and therefore not available to market makers and bullion banks to cover their positions.

Many goldbugs suspect that earmarked reserves of both metals are being tapped into by bullion banks as part of their suppression schemes. Whether that is conspiracy or fact should not concern us. The problem for the paper establishment used to controlling forwards and futures values is that pricing is being taken away from them. For example, at one point this week, silver was trading in Shanghai at the equivalent of $36, a premium of $4 or 11% over spot. Clearly, Chinese and other banks are strongly incentivised to arbitrage these differentials by sourcing silver in London and Comex for delivery in Shanghai.

It is no exaggeration to claim that prices are no longer being set in the West’s paper markets. This is something that goldbugs have been praying for, but perhaps do not yet appreciate. So where does this leave the bullion bank establishment?

Comex Swaps’ short positions in silver have become alarming, as the next chart shows:

At net short 37,522 contracts, this represents 187,610,000 ounces, equivalent to over 20% of global mine output. It is also the largest net short position since April 2017 when silver was only $17.40 so the financial commitment (damage) at current prices is far greater. Furthermore, this year a further 78,975,000 silver ounces have stood for delivery, which didn’t happen in 2017.

As an illiquid market, the establishment’s silver position is worrying to say the least. Either of two events might tip it over the edge: if gold continues to rise in value, silver is bound to go with it at twice the rate; and if public demand for ETFs, coin, and bars begin to reflect bullishness the squeeze on the establishment will intensify.

Both these appear to be likely. The chart for gold in USD looks very bullish, and in this context the current correction is perfectly normal taking the price back to possibly test the 55-day moving average, currently at $2290:

The point about paper markets losing control over pricing is made clear by assessing the potential demand and behaviour of China’s household savers. Their annual savings run at about 46 trillion yuan ($6.3 trillion) which is the equivalent of 85,000 tonnes of gold. With property and the stock market out of fashion, most of this is going into bank deposits. Undoubtedly, it won’t take much for a gold-loving Chinese population to start bidding prices higher. In fact, it has already started.

END

CHRIS POWELL…

India’s central bank buys 1.5 times more gold in January-April than in all of 2023

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-05-22 22:47 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Gayatri Nayak
The Times of India, Mumbai
Thursday, May 23, 2024

The Reserve Bank of India added 24 tonnes of gold to its stock of reserves in four months from January to April this year as a hedge against volatility amid geopolitical tensions. This is reckoned to be a part of strategic diversification of reserves in challenging times.

This is almost 1 1/2 times the volume it did during the whole of 2023 when it added 16 tonnes to its reserves, an analysis of the Reserve Bank data indicates.

The Reserve Bank held 827.69 tonnes worth of gold as a part of its foreign exchange reserves as of April 26,2024, up from 803.6 tonnes as of end December according to the latest Reserve Bank of India data

Though India has been one of the largest consumers of gold as far as the Indian household is concerned, the country’s central bank was rarely active in piling up its gold reserves. 

The bank came in for heavy criticism when it had pledged a part of its gold reserves in 1991 when it faced a foreign-exchange crisis. Though all the gold is back in the central bank’s coffers, it started adding to its stocks from market purchases only from December 2017. 

Though it was seen actively buying from the markets in 2022, it was laying low in 2023 only to come back aggressively since January this year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/rbi-buys-1-5-times-more-gold-in-january-april-than-whole-of-2023/articleshow/110340250.cms

* * *


5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT//COFFEE BEANS//

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.52 PTS OR 0.88% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 259.77 PTS OR 1.39%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 457.11 OR 1.17%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2438 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2587/ Oil DOWN TO 76.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.82 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2438

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2587

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.52 PTS OR 0.88 %

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 259.77 PTS OR 1.39%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 457.11 PTS OR 1.17 %

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  104.77 EURO RISES TO 1.0841 UP 30 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.01 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.95 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.590/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.844 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.343%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.590

3j Gold at $2340.45//Silver at: 30.56  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 40/ 100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.61

3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and  80 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.95/  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.010% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9147 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9918 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.477 UP 0 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.581 UP 0 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.929 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.24…(TURKEY)

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2906 UP 4 PTS

Futures Rebound After Thursday Rout As Rate Cut Expectations Fade

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 07:56 AM

After Thursday’s rout, which saw the overbought  S&P first hit an all time high before traders suddenly dumped everything (following hotter than expected PMI and Initial claims reports has further delayed expectations for the Fed’s first rate hike ostensibly to December) to buy Nvidia, whose market cap soared by over $200 billion to a record $2.55 trillion, on Friday US equity futures and treasuries have staged a modest rebound. As of 7:30am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, led by premarket gains at Micron, Microchip Technology and Advanced Micro Devices all of which continue to benefit from bullish sentiment around artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.4%, playing catch-up with Wednesday’s Wall Street drop, which was the biggest this month. 10Y yields dropped 1bp to 4.47% after surging the previous session by as much as 8bps ahead of a half-day trading session for the US bond market; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was headed for its first drop in five days, but still on track to post its best weekly gain since April 12. Oil continued its decline despite the signal from macro data that the economy is actually growing quite strong, in what appears to be accelerating CTA liquidations. Today’s macro events includes the April prelim Durable Goods report, the Kansas City Fed and the May final UMich report.

In premarket trading, Apple shares ticked 0.7% higher after the technology firm’s price target is raised to a Street-high view of $275 from $250 at Wedbush, a move that reflects “iPhone demand turning the corner into an AI driven iPhone 16 supercycle.” Tesla was flat after a report that Elon Musk’s SpaceX has initiated discussions about selling existing shares at a price that could value the company at roughly $200 billion. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Bilibili (BILI US) shares fluctuate between gains and losses as analysts debate the outlook for the Chinese online entertainment firm’s goal toward reaching breakeven, with Barclays upgrading the stock to equal weight from underweight.
  • Domo (DOMO US) shares slide 11% after the enterprise software firm’s second-quarter revenue forecast came in below estimates.
  • DuPont (DD US) shares climb 1.8% after an upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo.
  • Exact Sciences (EXAS US) slip 2.0% after rival Guardant Health’s Shield blood test to screen for colorectal cancer received the support of an FDA advisory panel Thursday.
  • Intuit (INTU US) shares are down 6.2% after the tax-preparation software company gave a forecast for adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that is weaker than expected. However, it raised its full-year revenue forecast. The company also said the CEO of its Credit Karma business will retire by the end of the year.
  • Summit Theraputics (SMMT US) shares tumble 20% after trial data on Hong Kong-listed biopharmaceutical company Akeso’s lung cancer drug was seen as disappointing. Summit acquired exclusive rights for development and commercialization of the drug in the US, Canada, EU and Japan from Akeso for $500 million in late 2022.
  • Workday (WDAY US) shares fall 12% after the software company cut its full-year subscription revenue forecast. The company also reported 1Q results, which analysts said were mixed. Peer Salesforce (CRM US) also decline 1.4%

The market mood turned more sombre after stronger-than-expected US business activity data forced traders to push back rate-cut expectations by a month. The change put Bloomberg’s dollar index on track for its biggest weekly gain since early April, while rate-sensitive Treasury two-year yields traded just off the three-week highs above 4.95% hit on Thursday. Separately, the latest FOMC minutes showed policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, with some even seeing a need for more restrictive policy.

To that point, this morning Goldman pushed back its forecast of the Fed’s first rate cut back one meeting, from July to September: “Earlier this week, we noted that comments from Fed officials suggested that a July cut would likely require not just better inflation numbers but also meaningful signs of softness in the activity or labor market data. After the stronger May PMIs and lower jobless claims, this does not look like the most likely outcome” wrote Goldman economist Jan Hatzius.

“What we have is this repricing of rate cuts,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale. “Two-year yields are again within touching distance of 5%, so the debate on whether US yields have peaked is still alive.”  For now, profits at larger US companies appear resilient to the higher-for-longer rates backdrop, offering encouragement to equity bulls. For broader positive momentum to reverse, “we’ll need to see if there’s a repricing of Fed cuts to hikes but the bar for that is still very high,” Broux said.

The Fed minutes and robust data have put MSCI’s global benchmark on track for its first weekly decline in five, and some strategists, including  BofA’s Michael Hartnett are warning the rally is at risk of overheating. Barclays strategists said stock gains are starting to “look tired.”

European stocks followed their US and Asian counterparts lower after traders pushed back expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% with almost all subindexes in the red, with only retail and auto stocks rising. The tech sector leads declines, breaking a two-day advance fueled by sentiment around Nvidia. In company news, drugmakers GSK and Boehringer win the first US Zantac cancer case to go to trial. Here are some of the biggest European movers Friday:

  • GSK rises after winning the first US Zantac cancer case to go to trial. It’s another positive step, according to Jefferies analysts
  • Drugmakers GSK and Boehringer Ingelheim persuaded a Chicago jury to reject a woman’s claim that the blockbuster heartburn drug Zantac caused her cancer
  • Pepco Group surges as much as 13%, after reporting gross margin improvement in 1H ended March 31 and guided for 20% increase of underlying Ebidta in FY
  • DNB Bank rises as much as 2.4% after a Barclays double-upgrade as analysts grow more constructive on Norway versus other Nordic countries in a rate-cut environment
  • Gerresheimer rises as much as 0.4% after being upgraded to buy by analysts at Hauck & Aufhaeuser following its deal to buy the holding company of Bormioli Pharma
  • Renault gains as much as 3.2% as UBS upgrades to hold from sell, saying cash return expectations are now building due to factors including the cancellation of Ampere’s IPO
  • Julius Baer gains as much as 3.4% after higher-than-expected assets under management outweighed concerns over weak net new money
  • Acciona Energia falls as much as 8.5% after cutting its Ebitda guidance for 2024. Analysts say it’s “perplexing” the company failed to fully quantify its new outlook
  • Zealand Pharma drops as much as 7.1% after reporting topline results from a trial investigating dapiglutide as an obesity treatment, which analysts called underwhelming
  • Celon Pharma drops as much as 7.4% after announcing a venture with US life science fund Tang Capital for the development of depression drugs
  • Hargreaves Lansdown falls as much as 5%, with Liberum analysts highlighting the opportunity to take profits after the investment platform rebuffed a £4.7 billion offer

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was headed for its first drop in five days, but still on track to post its best weekly gain since April 12. The Norwegian krone topped the G-10 FX leaderboard while cable was steady at 1.2696 after falling earlier as UK retail sales missed forecasts; GBPUSD is poised for its best monthly gain since November on view the Bank of England will take longer to cut interest rates. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 157.01, up a third day; Japan’s inflation cooled for a second month while staying above the Bank of Japan’s price target as the yen’s recent depreciation fuels concerns that cost-push inflationary pressures may be here to stay

“Fed cuts are likely at least four months away barring a sudden growth shock, while other central banks are starting to cut, albeit only gradually,” Wells Fargo strategists led by Michael Schumacher wrote in a research note. “And if there is a further repricing in global rate expectations, that would likely only serve to weigh on global growth expectations, tilting the balance in favor of US dollar strength”

In rates, Treasuries edge higher, with US 10-year yields falling 1bp to 4.47%. Gilts gain, led by the short end after UK retail sales fell at the fastest pace this year. UK two-year yields fall 4bps. SIFMA recommend early close for cash bond market Friday at 2pm New York, ahead of Memorial Day weekend. US yields richer by up to 1bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s spread wider by almost 1bp as long-end yields remain close to Thursday’s closing levels. In UK 2-year gilts richer by around 2bp, outperforming across front-end of the curve

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.9% to trade near $76.20. Spot gold rises 0.5%.

In crypto, Bitcoin is modestly softer and holds just above $67k, while Ethereum trades around $3.7k after the SEC approved plans from NYSE, CBOE and Nasdaq for the listing of spot Ethereum ETFs.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data includes April durable goods orders (8:30am), May University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Waller at 9:20am, giving a keynote address at a Central Bank of Iceland event in Reykjavík on R*.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,295.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 519.01
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 179.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 561.72
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 38,646.11
  • Topix down 0.4% to 2,742.54
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 18,608.94
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,088.87
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 75,526.60
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 7,727.59
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,687.60
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.58%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0820
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $81.13/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,338.61
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 105.02

Top Overnight News

  • European stocks followed New York and Asia lower after traders pushed back expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to later in 2024 following strong US economic data.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping urged deeper reforms for some of the country’s key sectors as investors look for hints on major policy shifts to be revealed at the upcoming party conclave.
  • UK retail sales fell at the fastest pace this year as consumers delayed spending due to rainy weather, underlying the hurdles facing the Conservative government’s bid for reelection.
  • Overseas issuers sold yen bonds at the fastest pace in five years this month, chasing cheap funds before an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan pushes up borrowing costs.
  • Tesla (TSLA) to cut Model Y output at Shanghai plant by at least 20% during March-June 2024, via Reuters citing sources
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said many Americans are still struggling with inflation, while she expressed concern over ‘substantial’ increases in living costs, according to FT.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the selling on Wall St where the initial NVIDIA-related euphoria was soured after strong US PMI data lifted the dollar and yields. ASX 200 declined with underperformance seen in the consumer and rate-sensitive sectors. Nikkei 225 gapped down at the open beneath the 39,000 level amid the headwinds from the US, while participants digested mixed inflation data which slowed in pace from the prior month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with the former weighed on by losses in the property sector and with tech stocks pressured by mixed earnings, while the downside was limited in the mainland amid a lack of catalysts.

Top Asian News

  • RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby said while near-term inflation risks are to the upside, he is confident medium-term inflation is returning to the target. Hawkesby said no single data point will cause a rate hike and he is watching domestic inflation pressures and expectations, while he added that cutting interest rates is not part of the near-term discussion and there is a lot of uncertainty about tradable inflation going forward.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said RBNZ is concerned about near-term inflation risks and adjusts its models after underestimating domestic inflation.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.5%), are entirely in the red, though off worst levels, with Europe playing catch-up to the risk-off sentiment which reverberated from the Wall Street afternoon session. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Banks and Tech reside as the laggards whilst Retail, Autos & Parts, and Media are among the better performers, albeit still mostly in the red. US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ Unch, YM +0.2%, RTY +0.3%) are marginally firmer attempting to pare back some of yesterday’s hefty losses.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Schnabel says some elements of inflation are proving persistent; would caution against moving too fast on rates
  • UK Ofgem Energy Price Cap (GBP): 1,568 (exp. 1,574; prev. 1,690), -7% (exp. -7%) for dual-fuel households.
  • Barclays expects the BoE to begin lowering rates in August with rate cuts to follow in November and December.

FX

  • DXY is marginally softer vs. some peers but ultimately still around yesterday’s PMI-inspired best levels which saw DXY tick above the 105 mark; trough thus far at 104.92.
  • EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD after finding support above the 1.08 mark. Price action this week has largely been at the whim of the USD with yesterday’s EZ PMI data overshadowed by the equivalent US release. overshadowed by the equivalent US release.
  • GBP is steady vs. the USD after yesterday’s PMI-induced downside, and brushes off initial pressure following the softer-than-expected Retail Sales figures. Cable currently trades on either side of 1.27.
  • JPY is marginally softer vs. the USD following mixed Japanese inflation metrics overnight which warrant a cautious stance from the BoJ and an unchanged rate at the June meeting. For now, the pair is contained within yesterday’s 156.50-157.19 range.
  • Antipodeans are both contained vs. the USD in quiet trade. AUD/USD has been unable to launch much of a recovery from recent losses. NZD/USD is steady vs. the USD having performed much better than its antipodean counterpart this week on account of a hawkish RBNZ.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1102 vs exp. 7.2539 (prev. 7.1098).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are marginally firmer with prices unable to launch much in the way of a meaningful recovery after yesterday’s PMI-induced losses and awaiting impetus from US Durable Goods. Today’s range is well contained within yesterday’s 108.17+ to 109.06 parameters.
  • Bunds are attempting to claw back some of the lost ground seen yesterday in the wake of encouraging EZ PMI metrics, which were then followed up by an uptick in EZ wages and a particularly hot US PMI release.
  • Gilts are attempting to atone for yesterday’s downside which followed the broader dynamics within global fixed income markets. Gains are smaller than their German counterpart despite disappointing UK retail sales metrics which saw a M/M contraction of -2.3% vs. exp. -0.4%.

Commodities

  • Crude is modestly softer in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far; Brent sits in a USD 81.05-81.55/bbl.
  • Spot gold and silver attempt to recover from yesterday’s steep losses in the absence of fresh catalysts this morning; XAU sits in a USD 2,325.47-2,340.69/oz intraday range.
  • Mixed/contained trade across base metals as prices consolidate from this week’s choppiness which saw 3M LME copper print record highs on Monday before tumbling over USD 700/t throughout the week.
  • OPEC+ to meet virtually on June 2nd, according to statement (prev. June 1st)

Geopolitics

  • China on Friday sent multiple bombers to conduct mock missile strikes in the Taiwanese drills, with dozens of missiles used in the drills, according to Chinese state media.
  • Israel’s PM and ministers decided to expand the mandate of the negotiating team during the war cabinet meeting on Wednesday night, according to Axios’ Ravid citing an Israeli senior official, although the official noted that it is not certain that it will be possible to achieve a breakthrough in the talks on abductees.
  • American and British aircraft launched two raids on Hodeidah Airport in Yemen. It was later reported that a Yemeni official said about ten Houthi leaders and experts were killed and wounded in the marches and missiles as the coalition targeted an operations room in Hodeidah, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Russian President Putin is reportedly ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire which recognises current battlefield lines, according to Reuters sources; but is prepared to fight on if Ukraine and the West do not respond
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky is set to attend the G7 leaders meeting in a fresh push for aid, according to Bloomberg. It was separately reported that House Speaker Johnson said they would soon host Israeli PM Netanyahu for a joint session of Congress.
  • Japan imposed sanctions against Russian-related entities and an individual. It was separately reported that South Korea imposed sanctions on seven North Korean individuals and two Russian vessels.
  • China’s Defence Ministry said military drill exercises around Taiwan continued and they will test the ability to jointly seize power, strike jointly, and occupy and control key areas.
  • US, Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, Czech Republic, Lithuania and German offices in Taipei issued a joint statement supporting Taiwan’s participation at the WHO meeting.
  • Azerbaijan takes control of four villages on the border with Armenia, according to Tass

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: April Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.8%, prior 2.6%, revised 0.9%
    • April Durables Less Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%, revised 0%
    • April Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%, revised -0.2%
    • April Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0%, revised -0.1%
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 67.7, prior 67.4
    • May U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 68.8, prior 68.8
    • May U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 67.0, prior 66.5
    • May U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.4%, prior 3.5%
    • May U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
  • 11:00: May Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 9

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:20: Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote Address on R*

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was a fascinating day yesterday as a barnstorming reaction to Nvidia’s results (+9.32%) clattered headfirst into stronger data and rising yields (UST 10yr +5.5bps), with the negative impact of the latter winning out with the S&P 500 (-0.74%) and the NASDAQ (-0.39%) seeing their worst day of May so far.

After Nvidia’s results the night before it felt like nothing could derail the market and at the open the S&P had initially hit an all-time intraday high (+0.66% on the day at the peak) and the VIX index of volatility hit its lowest intraday level since the pandemic, falling as low as 11.52pts.

The momentum had started to shift as US weekly initial jobless claims fell back to 215k (vs. 220k expected). That’s a second weekly decline, and suggests that the spike to 232k a couple of weeks ago was just a blip. And shortly afterwards, that theme was cemented by the flash composite US PMI for May, which rose to its strongest in over two years, at 54.4 (vs. 51.2 expected). That was led by a strong rebound in services activity (from 51.3 to 54.8), while manufacturing also ticked up (from 50.0 to 50.9). So the data yesterday suggests there’s little urgency for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon, and the odds of a cut by the September meeting were slashed to 56% by the close, down from 72% the previous day.

With investors pricing out rate cuts, that led to a sovereign bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic. For US Treasuries, this pushed the 10yr yield up +5.5bps to 4.48%, whilst the 2yr yield was up +6.6bps to 4.94%. In addition that move left the 2s10s yield curve at -46.3bps by the close, which is the most inverted it’s been so far this year. So as it stands, there’s little sign that the longest 2s10s inversion on record is coming to an end. This morning in Asia, yields on 2 and 10yr Treasuries are back down -1.5bps and -1bps respectively.

Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+6.1bps), OATs (+5.8bps) and BTPs (+6.3bps) all moved higher yesterday, which was cemented by their own PMI numbers earlier in the day. Indeed, the Euro Area composite PMI was up from 51.7 to 52.3 on the flash reading, which is its strongest level in a year.

Staying on Europe, there was also some interesting wage data from the ECB yesterday, which showed that negotiated pay accelerated from +4.5% to +4.7% year-on-year in Q1. Together with the PMI data, that supported a decent move lower in rate cut expectations, with the amount of rate cuts priced by the December meeting down -4.7bps to just 59bps, which is the fewest so far this year. However, the general consensus remains that they’re still likely to cut rates in June (which is 91% priced), and the ECB’s Villeroy said that they “should not over-interpret”, and that “we are very probably, barring a surprise, going to have a first rate cut in our next Governing Council meeting”. A little earlier in the year, the ECB had been telling us how crucial this wage data is, and then when it was released they downplayed it citing the role of one-off payments. Read their blog here. Our European economists note that realised wage data has been sticky of late, providing potential ammunition for the hawks, though the forward looking indicators of wages are pointing to a clear slowing.

But of course, it wasn’t all bad news yesterday, as Nvidia’s results from the previous day did lead to fresh gains for tech stocks. In fact, Nvidia saw their own share price rise by another +9.32% to $1037.99, having been up by +12% intra-day. So just a cool $218bn of additional market cap on the day – a similar size to the entire market cap of Shell (2nd largest in FTSE). Bear in mind that exactly a year earlier Nvidia closed at $306.88, so its share price has more than tripled in that time. We did a late CoTD yesterday updating our analysis comparing the Mag-7 profits to that of the entire listed universe of G20 countries. Nvidia is actually catching up fast making around a quarter of the profit of the entire listed UK or French markets. If the Mag-7 were a country index it would now be the third most profitable in the world behind US and China with just 7 stocks compared to the hundreds or thousands of stocks in other country indices. See our report here.

Nvidia’s rally helped push the Magnificent 7 (+0.40%) up to another all-time high, even as the other 6 stocks were down on the day. Indeed, outside of the positivity around Nvidia, it was a pretty weak day for equities, with a negative turn later in the session leading the S&P 500 (-0.74%) to the largest fall since the end of April. A remarkable 89% of the companies in the S&P 500 were down on the day, with semiconductors being the only one of the 24 industry groups to post a gain. And the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.60%) lost ground for a third consecutive day. Over in Europe, equities were also supported by the strength among tech stocks, with the STOXX Technology index up +1.51% and the STOXX 600 up +0.07%, but closing before the more negative sentiment fully took over.

In Asia, the Hang Seng (-1.19%) is the biggest underperformer driven by a decline in technology stocks while the Nikkei (-1.16%) is also notably lower as Japan’s consumer inflation softened (more on this below). Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-1.04%) is also trading in negative territory dragged down by index heavyweight Samsung Electronics while mainland Chinese stocks are also falling with the CSI (-0.43%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.16%) both edging lower. In overnight trading, S&P 500 (+0.13%) and Nasdaq futures (+0.07%) are back up a touch.

Coming back to Japan, core inflation slowed for a second straight month in April after it rose +2.2% y/y as expected and after increasing +2.6% in March, indicating that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be patient in raising interest rates. At the same time, “core-core” inflation rate — which strips out both fresh food and energy prices witnessed the sharpest fall to 2.4% y/y in April from 2.9% the month before, albeit in line with expectations. Meanwhile, headline inflation also slowed to +2.5% y/y in April (v/s +2.4% expected), down from March’s +2.7% figure.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for April, and in the US there’s the preliminary April reading for durable goods orders, along with the final May reading for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Schnabel, Vasle, Muller, Nagel, De Cos and Centeno, along with the Fed’s Waller.

US equity futures modestly firmer, Dollar softer in quiet trade and Bonds gain modestly – Newsquawk US Market Open

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FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 05:28 AM

  • European bourses are entirely in the red, though have recently has clambered off lows; US equities are modestly firmer.
  • Dollar is slightly softer, GBP shrugs off initial Retail Sales weakness, overall trade contained.
  • Bonds are very modestly firmer, attempting to claw back some of the US PMI-induced pressure.
  • Crude is softer and near session lows without a clear catalyst, XAU gains whilst base metals consolidate.
  • Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, Canadian Retail Sales, Comments from ECB’s de Cos, Centeno and Fed’s Waller.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.5%), are entirely in the red, though off worst levels, with Europe playing catch-up to the risk-off sentiment which reverberated from the Wall Street afternoon session.
  • European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Banks and Tech reside as the laggards whilst Retail, Autos & Parts, and Media are among the better performers, albeit still mostly in the red.
  • US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ Unch, YM +0.2%, RTY +0.3%) are marginally firmer attempting to pare back some of yesterday’s hefty losses.
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
  • Click here for more details.

FX

  • DXY is marginally softer vs. some peers but ultimately still around yesterday’s PMI-inspired best levels which saw DXY tick above the 105 mark; trough thus far at 104.92.
  • EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD after finding support above the 1.08 mark. Price action this week has largely been at the whim of the USD with yesterday’s EZ PMI data overshadowed by the equivalent US release. overshadowed by the equivalent US release.
  • GBP is steady vs. the USD after yesterday’s PMI-induced downside, and brushes off initial pressure following the softer-than-expected Retail Sales figures. Cable currently trades on either side of 1.27.
  • JPY is marginally softer vs. the USD following mixed Japanese inflation metrics overnight which warrant a cautious stance from the BoJ and an unchanged rate at the June meeting. For now, the pair is contained within yesterday’s 156.50-157.19 range.
  • Antipodeans are both contained vs. the USD in quiet trade. AUD/USD has been unable to launch much of a recovery from recent losses. NZD/USD is steady vs. the USD having performed much better than its antipodean counterpart this week on account of a hawkish RBNZ.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1102 vs exp. 7.2539 (prev. 7.1098).
  • Click here for more details.

FIXED INCOME

  • USTs are marginally firmer with prices unable to launch much in the way of a meaningful recovery after yesterday’s PMI-induced losses and awaiting impetus from US Durable Goods. Today’s range is well contained within yesterday’s 108.17+ to 109.06 parameters.
  • Bunds are attempting to claw back some of the lost ground seen yesterday in the wake of encouraging EZ PMI metrics, which were then followed up by an uptick in EZ wages and a particularly hot US PMI release.
  • Gilts are attempting to atone for yesterday’s downside which followed the broader dynamics within global fixed income markets. Gains are smaller than their German counterpart despite disappointing UK retail sales metrics which saw a M/M contraction of -2.3% vs. exp. -0.4%.
  • Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude is modestly softer in what has been a catalyst-thin session thus far; Brent sits in a USD 81.05-81.55/bbl.
  • Spot gold and silver attempt to recover from yesterday’s steep losses in the absence of fresh catalysts this morning; XAU sits in a USD 2,325.47-2,340.69/oz intraday range.
  • Mixed/contained trade across base metals as prices consolidate from this week’s choppiness which saw 3M LME copper print record highs on Monday before tumbling over USD 700/t throughout the week.
  • OPEC+ to meet virtually on June 2nd, according to statement (prev. June 1st)
  • Click here for more details.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is modestly softer and holds just above USD 67k, whilst Ethereum slips below USD 3.7k.
  • US SEC approved plans from NYSE, CBOE and Nasdaq for the listing of spot Ethereum ETFs.

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (May) -17.0 vs. Exp. -18.0 (Prev. -19.0)
  • UK Retail Sales YY (Apr) -2.7% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.4%); MM (Apr) -2.3% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. -0.2%); Ex-Fuel YY (Apr) -3.0% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.0%); Ex-Fuel MM (Apr) -2.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.6%)
  • German GDP Detailed YY NSA (Q1) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -0.9%); GDP Detailed QQ SA (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Schnabel says some elements of inflation are proving persistent; would caution against moving too fast on rates
  • UK Ofgem Energy Price Cap (GBP): 1,568 (exp. 1,574; prev. 1,690), -7% (exp. -7%) for dual-fuel households.
  • Barclays expects the BoE to begin lowering rates in August with rate cuts to follow in November and December.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Tesla (TSLA) to cut Model Y output at Shanghai plant by at least 20% during March-June 2024, via Reuters citing sources
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said many Americans are still struggling with inflation, while she expressed concern over ‘substantial’ increases in living costs, according to FT.

GEOPOLITICS

CHINA/TAIWAN

  • China on Friday sent multiple bombers to conduct mock missile strikes in the Taiwanese drills, with dozens of missiles used in the drills, according to Chinese state media.

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israel’s PM and ministers decided to expand the mandate of the negotiating team during the war cabinet meeting on Wednesday night, according to Axios’ Ravid citing an Israeli senior official, although the official noted that it is not certain that it will be possible to achieve a breakthrough in the talks on abductees.
  • American and British aircraft launched two raids on Hodeidah Airport in Yemen. It was later reported that a Yemeni official said about ten Houthi leaders and experts were killed and wounded in the marches and missiles as the coalition targeted an operations room in Hodeidah, according to Sky News Arabia.

OTHER

  • Russian President Putin is reportedly ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire which recognises current battlefield lines, according to Reuters sources; but is prepared to fight on if Ukraine and the West do not respond
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky is set to attend the G7 leaders meeting in a fresh push for aid, according to Bloomberg. It was separately reported that House Speaker Johnson said they would soon host Israeli PM Netanyahu for a joint session of Congress.
  • Japan imposed sanctions against Russian-related entities and an individual. It was separately reported that South Korea imposed sanctions on seven North Korean individuals and two Russian vessels.
  • China’s Defence Ministry said military drill exercises around Taiwan continued and they will test the ability to jointly seize power, strike jointly, and occupy and control key areas.
  • US, Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, Czech Republic, Lithuania and German offices in Taipei issued a joint statement supporting Taiwan’s participation at the WHO meeting.
  • Azerbaijan takes control of four villages on the border with Armenia, according to Tass

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks followed suit to the selling on Wall St where the initial NVIDIA-related euphoria was soured after strong US PMI data lifted the dollar and yields.
  • ASX 200 declined with underperformance seen in the consumer and rate-sensitive sectors.
  • Nikkei 225 gapped down at the open beneath the 39,000 level amid the headwinds from the US, while participants digested mixed inflation data which slowed in pace from the prior month.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with the former weighed on by losses in the property sector and with tech stocks pressured by mixed earnings, while the downside was limited in the mainland amid a lack of catalysts.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby said while near-term inflation risks are to the upside, he is confident medium-term inflation is returning to the target. Hawkesby said no single data point will cause a rate hike and he is watching domestic inflation pressures and expectations, while he added that cutting interest rates is not part of the near-term discussion and there is a lot of uncertainty about tradable inflation going forward.
  • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said RBNZ is concerned about near-term inflation risks and adjusts its models after underestimating domestic inflation.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese National CPI YY (Apr) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.7%); National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Apr) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.6%); National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Apr) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.9%)

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

China retaliates with a 25% car tariff against the EU and the USA. This for sure threatens trade ties between them

(zerohedge)

China Threatens 25% Car Tariff Against US, EU Moves – Trade Ties To Worsen In Coming Weeks

THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024 – 07:20 PM

Beijing is still mulling its expected retaliation in the wake of last week’s Biden administration rollout of steep tariff increases on a series of Chinese tech imports, importantly including computer chips, EV batteries and medical technology products.

Wednesday saw shares of European luxury automakers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tata Motors (Jaguar Land Rover), and Volkswagen Group (Audi) all finish lower, in the aftermath of a threatening and ominous Chinese state-run Global Times article which argued China should “consider raising the temporary tariff rate on imported cars with large-displacement engines, in order to reduce imports as part of the country’s broader efforts to cut emissions and promote the green development of the auto industry.”

China has signaled it is ready to unleash tariffs as high as 25% – which would be a significant increase up from the current duty rate of 15%. Citing a Chinse industry insider, the GT piece blasted the ‘protectionist moves’ coming out of Washington and the West.

Separately this week, in post on X, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) issued its own warning in an obviously coordinated messaging campaign, saying it was “informed by insiders that China may consider increasing temporary tariff rates on imported cars equipped with large-displacement engines.”

“This potential action carries implications for European and US carmakers, particularly in light of recent developments such as Washington’s announcement of tariff hikes on Chinese electric vehicles and Brussels’ preparations for preliminary measures in a high-profile anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs,” the chamber statement said.

As a reminder, this the text of the European Commission’s opening an investigation back in October… it formally launched “an anti-subsidy investigation into the imports of battery electric vehicles (BEV) from China. The investigation will first determine whether BEV value chains in China benefit from illegal subsidisation and whether this subsidisation causes or threatens to cause economic injury to EU BEV producers.”

The investigation under EC President Ursula von der Leyen aims to determine whether this violates the WTO anti-dumping agreement. The deadlines set out to potentially impose duties is July 4.

China is hitting back at both Europe and the US, as South China Morning Post observed:

Beijing has indicated that it won’t take either gambit lying down. On Sunday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imports of polyoxymethylene copolymer – a chemical commonly used in automotive engineering – from the US, EU, Japan and Taiwan.

It has already started probing alleged dumping in the European brandy sector, seen to target France’s cognac exports. Paris has been a strong supporter of a tougher EU trade policy towards China.

Amid predictions that trade conditions between China and the West are expected to worsen in the coming weeks, von der Leyen on Tuesday sought to downplay a trade war in remarks from Brussels.

“I don’t think that we are in a trade war. I have the motto: ‘de-risk not decouple’, and I think here it’s very clear we are in the category of de-risking from China. We have decoupled from Russia,” she said.

China is set to be a central foreign policy talking point among both presidential campaigns going into November…

In a big “cognitive dissonance” moment, Rand Paul correctly points out there’s “not a lot of difference” between Biden and Trump on China, especially since Biden “jumped on the Trump Train” with respect to Tariffs. Both are obsessed with scolding and sanctioning China, Paul notes

1:34

·

209.2K Views

And here’s what the Biden administration said during the last Tuesday unveiling of the new US tariff hike: “Today, I am following through on my commitment to stand up to the People’s Republic of China’s unfair trade practices by issuing a formal proposal to modify the tariff actions.” US Trade Representative Katherine Tai further vowed, “The President and I will continue to fight for American workers, and for our economic future and national security.”

END

the use of the Chinese yuan increases

(zerohedge)

The Start Of De-Dollarization: China’s Move Away From The USD

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 05:45 AM

Since 2010, the majority of China’s cross-border payments, like those of many countries, had been settled in U.S. dollars (USD). As of the first quarter of 2023, that’s no longer the case.

As Visual Capitalist’s Julian Wendling shows in the grrahic below, from the Hinrich Foundation, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is growing in popularity in payments both domestically and globally.  

The De-Dollarization of China’s Cross-Border Transactions

This analysis uses Bloomberg data on the share of China’s payments and receipts in RMB, USD, and other currencies from 2010 to 2024. 

In the first few months of 2010, settlements in local currency accounted for less than 1.0% of China’s cross-border payments, compared to approximately 83.0% in USD. 

China has since closed that gap. In March 2023, the share of the RMB in China’s settlements surpassed the USD for the first time.

Since then, the de-dollarization in Chinese international settlements has continued.  

As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB. 

Most Popular Currencies in Foreign Exchange (FX) Transactions

Globally, analysis from the Bank for International Settlements reveals that, in 2022, the USD remained the most-used currency for FX settlements. The euro and the Japanese yen came in second and third, respectively.

The Chinese renminbi, though accounting for a relatively small share of FX transactions, gained the most ground over the last decade. Meanwhile, the euro and the yen saw decreases in use. 

The Future of De-Dollarization

If the RMB’s global rise continues, the stranglehold of the USD on international trade could diminish over time.  

The impacts of declining dollar dominance are complex and uncertain, but they could range from the underperformance of U.S. financial assets to diminished power of Western sanctions.

However, though the prevalence of RMB in international payments could rise, a complete de-dollarization of the world economy in the near- or medium-term is unlikely. China’s strict capital controls that limit the availability of RMB outside the country, and the nation’s sputtering economic growth, are key reasons contributing to this.

END

cyber threats initiated by China increases

(epoch times)

US-UK Intelligence Warning: China Cyberthreats Pose ‘Epoch-Defining’ Challenge

THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024 – 11:40 PM

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

The cybersecurity wars between communist China and the West are raging, yet few people realize what’s really going on. That’s now changing.

The Chinese regime’s ability to launch successful cyberattacks against American and British defenses is higher than it has ever been. New attack tactics, techniques, and protocols (TTPs) developed by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) cyber division are threatening the integrity and functionality of Western nations’ military communications, operations, and other critical systems.

(L to R) MP Tim Loughton, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and MP Stewart McDonald during a press conference at the Centre for Social Justice in central London on March 25, 2024. The Chinese regime is believed to have targeted a group of senior MPs and peers with a fresh series of cyberattacks aimed at undermining UK democracy. (Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire)

That may be why the United States and the UK are now publicly speaking about these critical threats, warning the Chinese and other national threat actors with which they coordinate to cease these provocative attacks. To that point, American, British, and European officials have warned that the Chinese regime’s cyberattacks are both coercive and destabilizing. As an indication of just how serious those threats are, the UK summoned the Chinese ambassador as a formal response to the regime’s increasing cyber threats to the UK.

UK: Defending Against China’s Cyberattacks Is ‘Top Priority’

To underscore their concern, Anne Keast-Butler, director of the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), the UK’s top-tier surveillance agency, said at a security conference in England’s city of Birmingham that responding to China’s cyber activities was “a top priority” for GCHQ. This isn’t the first time the UK government has had to confront Beijing about its illegal and threatening activities in cyberspace, but of late, it’s become a much bigger problem.

In fact, last month, British Prime Minister Rushi Sunak said Chinese hackers working for the CCP were running “malicious cyber campaigns” against UK lawmakers and UK media and were also responsible for a hack on the British Armed Forces’ payments system. The prime minister spoke further about the cyber threats, saying his country faced an “axis of authoritarian states like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.”

What’s more, British authorities have charged three men with spying for Hong Kong’s foreign intelligence service in the UK. The men are accused of being Chinese state-sponsored hackers and stealing election data from the UK’s elections offices, as well as performing surveillance operations in the UK. Beijing stated that the case was “a fabrication.” When pressed about these and other cyber activities and the threats they pose to international norms and the security of the United States, the UK, and European countries, Beijing denied the existence of such threats, dismissing them as “absurd.”

These events put additional strains on UK relations with China.

The Volt Typhoon Threat and Beyond

These official accusations follow in the wake of the confrontation that Washington had with Beijing several weeks ago regarding its advanced “Volt Typhoon” attack. That attack involved the discovery of the long and undetected presence of Chinese infiltration into vital U.S. operational systems across a variety of verticals. It was determined that Chinese attackers had breached the networks of dozens of American critical infrastructure organizations that control electrical power, water, and both civilian and military communication systems via a widespread network of compromised servers and computers.

FBI Director Christopher Wray contends that Volt Typhoon would be used to disrupt, if not eliminate, control of the critical infrastructure systems mentioned above, as well as other strategic assets, prior to launching a military campaign against the United States or Taiwan. Again, Beijing has denied any official connection to the Volt Typhoon attack.

Hackers Penetrating US Defense Systems

However, at the Birmingham security conference, National Cyber Director Harry Coker asserted that Chinese hackers were violating U.S. defense sites in cyberspace and targeting U.S. interests at an “unprecedented scale.” Mr. Coker highlighted the severity of this threat, noting that “in a crisis or conflict scenario, China could use their pre-positioned cyber capabilities to wreak havoc in civilian infrastructure and deter U.S. military action.”

The British prime minister and the GCHQ chief emphasized their rising concerns about China’s cyberattacks and their impact on the global order. Mr. Sunak said the next few years would be “dangerous and transformational,” while Ms. Keast-Butler said that “Russia and Iran pose immediate threats, but China is the ‘epoch-defining’ challenge.”

As China’s Power Rises, So Do Attacks

However, the United States, the UK, and Europe aren’t the only targets of Chinese hackers. The Philippines has seen a fourfold rise in Chinese cyberattacks year over year as friction between the two has increased. The parallel between the Chinese regime’s growing military power and influence in the world and its rising level of cyberattacks against its adversaries can’t be overlooked. Nor can the fact that the United States and the UK feel the need to publicly point the finger at China.

Cyberattacks have occurred for decades, but this is a clear change from how they were handled in the past, when they were managed at the government level. However, with China’s apparent ability to penetrate even the most highly guarded systems, the next few years may well be, as the British observed, “destabilizing,” “transformative,” and “epoch-defining.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

end

and they should be punished

Blinken Working With Congress To Punish Hague-Based ICC

THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday said he wanted to work with Congress on legislation to punish the International Criminal Court (ICC) for seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Blinken was asked by Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing if he would support legislation to counter “the ICC sticking its nose in the business of countries that have an independent, legitimate democratic judicial system.”

Blinken replied, “Given the events of yesterday, I think we have to look at the appropriate steps to take to deal with again, what is a profoundly wrongheaded decision.”

The ICC was previously sanctioned by the US under the Trump administration for its plans to investigate alleged US war crimes in Afghanistan. The Biden administration reversed the sanctions, but the US pressure worked to get the court to announce the focus of its Afghanistan investigation would be on the Taliban and ISIS-K.

The ICC’s chief prosecutor announced warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on Monday for their role in the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, which implicates Blinken and other top US officials for supporting the onslaught. The ICC is also seeking warrants for Hamas leaders for the October 7 attack on southern Israel and the taking of hostages.

The State Department has said it would rather Israel kill Hamas leaders than have them face trial in The Hague.

“We absolutely believe that Hamas should be held accountable. That could either be through the prosecution of the war effort by Israel. It could be by being killed. It could be by being brought to justice in an Israeli court,” said State Department spokesman Matt Miller.

The Biden administration is opposing the ICC efforts against Israeli and Hamas leaders despite backing its warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

UN membership, the State of Palestine is a signatory to the Rome Statute, making it a member of the ICC.

USA builds the pier and Hamas attacks them trying to give food aid to Gazans. The world says nothing

Watch: US Deploys Anti-Air Defense System On Gaza Aid Pier

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 06:55 AM

Israeli media has reported that two American soldiers were injured Thursday in an accident which occurred while working on the Gaza humanitarian pier. 

“Two U.S. soldiers sustained light injuries on Thursday during a work accident near the temporary floating pier in Gaza,” i24 News said.

“The soldiers were promptly evacuated through Ashdod Port to an Israeli hospital for treatment,” the report indicated. Israeli Army Radio described that the US soldiers were “injured in the floating dock area off Gaza.”

The pier has seen the first aid trucks roll off in the last several days, but the whole operation has been off to a chaotic start. As of Tuesday there had not been any deliveries confirmed even though several trucks had departed with aid.

“Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Tuesday that the issues have arisen once the aid was loaded onto nongovernmental organization trucks, departed the marshaling area and headed toward distribution warehouses in Gaza,” Navy Times reported.

Some of the trucks had reportedly been taken over by desperate Palestinians before making it to their destination.

“Only five of the 16 aid trucks that left the secured area on Saturday arrived at the intended warehouse with their cargo intact, U.N. World Food Program spokesperson Steve Taravella told The Associated Press,” Navy Times continued. “He said the other 11 trucks were waylaid by what became a crowd of people and arrived without their cargo.”

Site security has remained a serious concern, despite Israel’s military (IDF) being in charge of protecting the land portion of the pier, with US warships off the coast.

Widely circulating social media images appear to confirm that the US military has deployed a C-RAM system (Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar) to safeguard the pier from aerial attacks such as drones or rockets.

Videos suggest it has already seen some action, possibly having taken out a drone flying nearby. Or else, it may have been a planned live-fire test to ensure its positioning and capabilities once installed. The C-RAM is relied upon to protect US forward operating bases elsewhere in the Middle East, as well as places like the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone.

Below: Watch the newly installed C-RAM in action on Gaza’s coast…

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-precision-us-anti-air-system-active-gaza-aid-pier

The Pentagon previously made it clear that if US troops come under fire, they are authorized to defend themselves and fire back. However, the IDF has also said it is providing security on land, and there are at least two Israeli bases established nearby.

END

US Service Member Critically Injured In Gaza Pier Op To Bypass Israeli Blockade

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 01:20 PM

A cost of US government support of Israel’s war in Gaza gained a grim new dimension Thursday, as three American service members suffered “non-combat injuries” in the humanitarian relief operation off the Gaza coast, with one in critical condition. The military branch of the injured had not yet been disclosed as this story was written. 

While the circumstances are still unclear, the most seriously-injured service member was working on the offshore platform that trucks use to travel between aid-laden ships and the Gaza beach, reports USNI News. The MV Roy P. Benavidez, a “roll-on, roll-off” cargo ship, was attached to the platform when the incident happened.  The pier-construction project has been a joint Army-Navy undertaking, with the pier construction being handled by the Army’s 7th Transportation Brigade, which is based at Fort Eustis, VA. 

The critically injured American was airlifted to an Israeli hospital. Those who are well-practiced in using circular logic to justify the close US-Israel relationship will no doubt express gratitude that the United States could tap its ally Israel for medical assistance — after an American was critically injured because the United States has Israel for an ally. 

“Three injuries, two were very minor injuries and those individuals returned to duty. One individual is undergoing care at a local Israeli hospital,” US Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper told reporters. These are the first US “casualties” of any degree in the pier operation so far, which has involved some 1,000 service members. There’s no indication that actions by outside forces led to the injuries. 

Components of the the mobile causeway on the deck of the Benavidez in mid-March (USNI News)

The US government has given Israel billions of dollars that it’s used to devastate Gaza and impose a blockade that’s caused a major humanitarian crisis. Now, to mitigate that devastation, the US government has spent $320 million to build a pier to bypass its own beneficiary’s land-route blockade. 

At best, the pier will only put a dent in the daunting humanitarian challenge. “I just want to be clear that this humanitarian maritime corridor alone is not enough to meet the staggering needs in Gaza, but it is an important addition,” said USAID Levant response management team director Daniel Dieckhaus. “It is meant to augment, not replace or substitute for land crossings into Gaza.” 

The pier operation got off to a rough start — and was paused for two days — after desperate Palestinians mobbed and ransacked the first trucks before they could reach a distribution warehouse managed by the World Food Programme.   

ROBERT H TO US

Crazy
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/member-of-british-parliament-we-are-already-at-war-with-russia-they-wont-tell-the-people-until-july-or-august

Russia closes in on Kharkiv as Ukrainians issue desperate conscription laws.

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Enforces Desperate Conscription Laws As Russian Troops Close In On Kharkiv

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 04:15 AM

Ukraine is now enforcing a new mobilization law which is being called ‘divisive’ among many Ukrainian citizens and some political leaders.  The law requires men ages 18-60 to carry their military paperwork at all times to be presented to authorities on demand.  It lowers the minimum draft age from 27 to 25 (Ukraine has a demographic shortage of men ages 18-25).  And, all military age Ukrainian men abroad must come back to Ukraine to renew their passports, including refugees driven from their homes in the early days of the war.  

Conscripts must update their address, contact information, and military records within 60 days through government institutions or a mobile application.  This is in preparation for a national draft database containing information on every fighting age male in the country.  The conscription measures are expected to greatly reduce Ukraine’s labor pool, forcing many businesses to shut down.  Essential workers are not exempt from the draft.

Vladimir Zelensky signed two other bills into effect, one allowing prisoners to be deployed to the front lines (the western media criticized Russia last year for implementing a similar measure), the other bill quintuples fines for people caught trying to evade the draft.    

Early versions of the law allowed for concessions on pay and better rotation for soldiers, including a policy which would relieve soldiers serving for 36 months or more.  All demobilization concessions were removed from the final version; Ukraine’s military leadership argued that they needed the most experienced soldiers to remain at the front.

Kyiv has offered cash bonuses to troops towards purchases of housing and cars as an incentive to join the war effort, however, critics argue that the Ukrainian treasury does not actually have the funds to fulfill the promises Zelinsky is making. 

To counter charges of undermining soldier morale, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry says it is working on a separate demobilization bill, but massive manpower shortages make any demobilization action highly unlikely.  Front line soldiers have repeatedly complained about the lack of rotation, with some rarely getting a chance to leave the trenches in the past two years.

These desperate conscription laws arrive just as Russian forces close in on Kharkiv, the second largest city in the nation.  Bombardment of the city’s defenses and infrastructure is already underway in preparation for a possible offensive.  Some analysts argue that Russia does not have enough troops to to take Kharkiv and that this is a distraction.  Russia may open a new front near Sumy which is 100 miles away, or they may plan to full envelope Kharkiv because they know Ukraine’s troop strength is at a minimum. 

The western media has been an avid mouthpiece for the Ukrainian government over the past couple years with many pundits shaming Ukrainian citizens who have tried to leave to avoid being involuntarily mobilized.  Seeing the complete lack of organization and the habitual embezzlement of funds among Ukraine’s leadership it’s not surprising that many citizens do not want to fight for them.  If only the media was as energetic about promoting peace negotiations as it has been about promoting war.

end

More Russian generals fired

(zerohedge)

Putin’s Purge? Another Top Russian General Arrested On Bribery Charges

THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024 – 11:20 PM

Is this the continuation of what appers an ongoing purge by President Vladimir Putin of his top defense ranks

The Kremlin escalated its crackdown on Russia’s top military ranks, with a new corruption arrest this week.

Russian authorities detained Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin, deputy to General Valery Gerasimov, head of the army’s general staff, on suspicion of large-scale bribe-taking, Russian state media reported Thursday. 

It is the fourth arrest in the past month of a high-ranking military official, marking the biggest Russian army scandal in years. The detentions come as President Vladimir Putin carries out a sweeping reshuffle of top jobs, including a change at the head of the Ministry of Defense.

The arrest comes closely on the heels of the biggest reshuffling in military leadership since the Ukraine invasion’s start: the May 12th removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (or rather, he was shifted to head of the national security council) and installation of Andrei Belousov.

“On May 22, the court chose a preventive measure for Shamarin in the form of detention for a period of two months,” a court official was cited in AFP as confirming. Additionally a senior defense ministry procurement official identified as Vladimir Verteletsky was also reportedly detained.

The court has alleged Shamarin accepted bribes “at an especially large scale” while overseeing the doling out of state contracts:

Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, announced later on Thursday that the general is accused of accepting 36 million rubles ($397,000) from the executives of a phone manufacturing plant for “general patronage” and ensuring higher product supplies through Defense Ministry contracts.

He is currently in pretrial detention. As for recent removals which are specifically criminal cases, below is a review of the series of arrests:

  • Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was detained in late April
  • Lieutenant-General Yuri Kuznetsov, head of personnel at the defense ministry
  • Major-General Ivan Popov, a former top commander for Russia’s offensive in Ukraine

Despite all appearances, the Kremlin is still denying that a “purge” is in progress – but instead a mere serious campaign to root out corruption.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RIA in the wake of the detention of Gerasimov’s deputy, “The fight against corruption is a continuous effort. This is not a campaign. It is an integral part, in fact, of the activities of our law enforcement agencies.”

So this string of arrests is being presented as an open and shut simple enforcement of the law, but this is hardly convincing many Russia observers in the West. For example, the BBC’s Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg has observed: “When one top defense official in Russia is arrested, that’s interesting. When four senior defense figures are arrested in less than a month, that’s more than a patternbegins to look like a purge.”

As for head of the army, Gen. Gerasimov… while this certainly puts him under a greater spotlight (as his #2 just went down), he is not accused of any wrongdoing, but still has come under increased criticism among Kremlin officials of late for how the ‘special military operation’ is being executed in Ukraine.

end

they are trying to hid the origins of the virus!

(zerohedge)

‘I Did Delete All Of Peter’s Emails Relating To Origin’: COVID Cabal Conspired To Destroy Evidence To Evade FOIA Requests

THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024 – 04:40 PM

A new trove of emails released by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic reveal that top researchers involved in manipulating bat coronaviruses to better-infect humans then conspired to delete email evidence of their communications surrounding the Covid-19 outbreak.

The communications focus on top NIH adviser Dr. David Morens, who solicited help from the NIH’s Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) office to dodge records requests. Morens is currently on administrative leave.

“Evidence in possession of the Select Subcommittee suggests that Dr. Morens, while employed by NIAID and NIH acted as an agent on behalf of a federal grantee, EcoHealth,” the Subcommittee notes. “Morens began assisting Dr. Daszak in how to respond to NIH compliance efforts,” the release continues – referring to EcoHealth Alliance boss Peter Daszak, whose organization was suspended this month from receiving federal funds for three years.

i learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after I am foia’d but before the search starts,” Morens wrote in a Feb. 24, 2021 email to an unknown recipient, adding “Plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail.

In another email, Morens claims that “With the help of our IT folks, I went over the whole computer and phone situation… Basically, my gmail is safe from FOIA.”

“Please pass this on to Peter and I ask you both that NOTHING gets sent to me except to my gmail.

Morens also emailed Daszak, advising him: “We are all smart enough to know never to have smoking guns, and if we did we wouldn’t put them in emails and if we found them we’d delete them.”

And in another email to Peter Hotez, Morens writes: “The email somehow fell into the hands of the Congressman, probably via FOIA of someone who didn’t delete it, as I did (delete all of Peter’s emails and others relating to origin) when the shit started hitting the fan.”

Meanwhile, Morens joked about getting a kickback from EcoHealth, to which Daszak replied jokingly: “of course there’s a kickback. It starts with 5 more years of FoIA requests … I just hope it doesn’t culminate in 5 years in Federal jail, or even Chinese ‘re-education camp’…

According to Diane Cutler, an ex-investigator for the US Department of Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General, “He has violated the ethical standards of conduct for executive branch employees and has potentially violated criminal law,” she said, referring to Morens, the NY Post reports.

Both Republicans and Democrats on the panel were united in their denunciations of Morens.

The information contained in these 30,000 pages of emails are deeply concerning, and in my opinion reflects poorly upon Dr. Morens and the Office of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease under Dr. Fauci’s leadership and the NIH under Dr. Francis Collins,” Subcommittee chairman Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) said in his opening remarks.

“Dr. Fauci’s NIAID was unfortunately less pristine than so many, including the media, would have had us all believe,” he added.

Ranking member Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) echoed Wenstrup’s remarks in calling Morens’ behavior was “deeply troubling” — but cautioned the emails were “not a breakthrough moment in actually understanding the actual origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.” -NY Post

There are now two instances of documented emails from Peter Hotez and Anthony Fauci on how to delete official emails over the course of the pandemic and concerning origins of the virus. NY Times put 3 people on a story about a pine tree flag from last year.

·

142K View

NOW WHAT?

WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY


END

Overreporting COVID-19 As An Underlying Cause Of Death Inflated Mortality Numbers During Pandemic: Analysis

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Megan Redshaw, J.D. via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new analysis suggests COVID-19 was reported more frequently than it should have been as an underlying cause of death, inflating COVID-19 mortality numbers and attributing deaths from other causes to the virus.

In a preprint paper published in Research Gate, researchers aimed to identify who truly died “from” COVID-19 versus who died “with” COVID-19 but were included in U.S. COVID-19 mortality numbers.

To determine if COVID-19 was overreported as an underlying cause of death, researchers calculated the overreporting adjustment factor and compared the ratio of reporting COVID-19 as a multiple—or contributing—cause of death versus an underlying cause of death on death certificates from 2020 to 2022. They also examined how “pneumonia and influenza” were reported on death certificates from 2010 to 2022.

An overreporting adjustment factor for mortality is a statistical correction applied to mortality data to account for the propensity of certain death counts reported more frequently or inaccurately than others. It typically involves comparing reported death counts to a more accurate independent benchmark, which helps ensure data reflect the true incidence of deaths in a population. Here, the researchers chose pneumonia and influenza because the conditions are similar in nature to COVID-19, and they could compare patterns using mortality data before and after the pandemic began in 2020.

According to the preprint, data show COVID-19 was systematically overreported as an underlying cause of death during the pandemic by an average of about three times for all ages compared to influenza and pneumonia during the same period—and was highest in those aged 15 to 54. Additionally, only about one-third of influenza and pneumonia-related deaths were reported as underlying causes, whereas almost all COVID-19-related deaths were reported as “deaths from COVID-19.”

When comparing underlying cause death rates for different age groups for COVID-19 with death rates from influenza and pneumonia, researchers observed that underlying cause COVID-19 death rates were higher than those for influenza and pneumonia in the 15 to 24 and older age groups. After adjusting to obtain the overreporting factor, they found COVID-19 death rates were still higher than they were for influenza and pneumonia for ages 25 to 34 and older and equal for those aged 15 to 24.

About 30 percent of influenza and pneumonia-related deaths were registered as an underlying cause of death on death certificates, whereas 90 percent of COVID-19 deaths were recorded as the underlying cause of death in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, 76 percent of COVID-19 deaths were registered as the underlying cause.

“There was a systematic overreporting of deaths from COVID when we analyze versus the flu and pneumonia, as almost all COVID deaths were reported as the underlying cause,” Edward Dowd, founder of Phinance Technologies, told The Epoch Times. “Basically, when one wants to understand the pandemic, only about 30 percent of the reported COVID-19 deaths were ‘from COVID-19’ as the underlying cause,” Mr. Dowd said.

How the US Counts COVID-19 Deaths

Each country has its own criteria for determining what constitutes a COVID-19-related death. The United States uses the World Health Organization’s (WHO) classification system to categorize and code mortality data from death certificates.

The WHO defines the underlying cause of death as “the disease or injury which initiated the chain of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury.” The underlying cause of death is chosen from the conditions listed by the physician on the death certificate. When the physician records multiple causes or conditions, the underlying cause is determined by the sequence of conditions that led to the death on the certificate, ICD provisions, and selection rules.

The WHO methodology for identifying COVID-19-related deaths cast a wide net for potential classification of COVID-19 as either the underlying cause of death or a contributory cause of death, which could lead to over-reporting relative to other diseases. This led to criticisms of suspected over-counting of COVID-19-related deaths during the pandemic. As an example, a CDC mortality report indicated that COVID-19 was the sole cause of only about 5% of listed COVID-19 deaths,” the authors of the analysis wrote.

Each death certificate contains a single underlying cause of death and up to 20 additional multiple or contributing causes. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), properly classifying the death on a death certificate is important for mortality trends that inform public health risks and policy decisions.

Causes of Overreporting COVID-19 Deaths

According to the analysis, incentives for recording positive COVID-19 tests may have contributed to an overreporting bias in deaths attributed to COVID-19 compared to other diseases. Since the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 deaths have included those who died with COVID-19 and from COVID-19, and more recently, those who died of conditions attributed to long COVID, even if they had not tested positive for the virus in recent months or years.

The White House acknowledged early on that health officials were taking a very liberal approach to mortality regarding COVID-19.

“There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem, some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death,” former White House coronavirus response coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters during an April 2020 press briefing.

“Right now, we’re still recording it, and the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as ‘COVID-19 infection’ the intent is right now that if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Dr. Birx said.

State health departments use the CDC’s standardized surveillance case definition and uniform criteria to define a disease for public health surveillance. They also report COVID-19 cases through the agency’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. At the beginning of the pandemic, the CDC’s definition of COVID-19 was “very simplistic,” and health departments recorded anyone with a positive COVID-19 diagnosis at the time of death a COVID-19 death, even if a clear alternative cause of death existed.

Likewise, medical examiners and coroners follow CDC guidelines when completing death certificates, and the agency’s National Center for Health Statistics provides standardized forms and procedures for certifying deaths, including how to determine underlying causes of death and report related causes.

CDC guidance states that in cases where a “definite diagnosis of COVID-19 cannot be made, but is suspected or likely,” it is “acceptable” to report COVID-19 on the death certificate as “probable” or “presumed” and certifiers can use their best clinical judgment in determining whether an individual likely had COVID-19. It’s this same discretion that allows long COVID to be counted as a COVID-19 death long after an individual tested positive for infection.

The CDC broadly defines long COVID as “signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue to develop after acute COVID-19 infection” that can last for “weeks, months, or years.” The term is also used to refer to post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), long-haul COVID, and post-acute COVID-19.

The CDC guidance gives a physician or medical examiner discretion to classify long COVID as a COVID-19 fatality, and the CDC death certificate guidance allows for PASC to be listed as an underlying cause of death, which may affect COVID-19 mortality numbers.

A December 2022 Vital Statistics Rapid Release Report published by the CDC identified 3,544 deaths in the National Vital Statistics System that mentioned long COVID key terms and were coded as COVID-19 deaths in the United States from Jan. 1, 2020, through June 30, 2022.

.

CRISPIN MILLER

Teaser more to come but here is my question: is the fraud easily manipulated ‘over-cycled’ RT-PCR ‘process’ being WEAPONZIED again as we speak, to bring a NEW fake H5N1 non-pandemic?

that will drive escalating ‘infections’, then ‘cases’ and thus impetus for lockdowns, school closures, masks, vaccine? MODERNA & Pfizer brining mRNA for H5N1 & many already pushing CURE…what to do?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 23
 
READ IN APP
 

More and more lies to come, more fraud, COVID worked yet did not do the job so they coming again especially as an election nears…they want to and need to steal votes, mail-ins and any way they can steal it for 45 is GOING to win…

Is this going to be another PCR-manufactured NON-pandemic also based on the lie of ASYMPTOMATIC transmission? I say YES! Be warned! Can they cook up something man-made to harm and kill us? Likely Yes…could they be trying? Yes too…have they succeeded so far? No. Will they succeed? No…why? they will need to bring something perfectly adapted to human airways etc. human cells and when Darwin spoke of ‘time’ in evolutionary biology terms, he did not mean a day or week or month, he meant one million years, tens of thousands of years…nothing can come from birds or cows or swine etc. that can adapt in days or weeks and stably spread unless they manipulate it in lab…so there may be a chance this is or has happened but so far whatever they did to H5N1 in lab (if GoF has been done) has failed for it is not transmitting to humans readily and from human to human…so failed!

and even COVID (or whatever it was they brought) showed us that this had to be multiple release for the ‘time’ needed was never there…you can play with something in lab and juice it up, but there must still be time for it to adapt cellularly…to spread efficiently.

IMO, as of today, all we do is NOTHING…turn off the fear porn…no masks, no vaccine, no lockdowns, nothing…yes, we make commonsense decisions, take reasonable precautions and we make decisions for ourselves…we use nasal oral rinses, vitamin D etc. (keep a supply of antibiotics on hand for there will be a run) and trust our natural immunity especially our natural INNATE immunity (innate antibodies and natural killer cells (NK cells) to do the first line of defense job…all we see now is a drive to MANUFACTURE a fake H5N1 non-pandemic out of nothing…is this the DISEASE X? Was H5N1 always in their back pocket playbook as DISEASE X? for more mRNA vaccine? A vaccine by Malone Bourla Bancel Weissman Sahin et al. that failed, was non-sterilizing, non-neutralizing and did not protect the airways and drove to negative efficacy and effectiveness and was deadly with massive natural selective pressure on the antigen (infectiousness of the COVID, if we believe it) and immune dysregulation and subversion?

This H5N1 is a ruse, a fraud…fear porn…today we have no information, no evidence, nothing to say it has spilled over to humans, no indications it has stably adapted to humans (respiratory airways etc.) and no indication there is efficient human-to-human spread. None.

Should we just walk away? No, we are dealing with malfeasants with depopulation agendas and death on the minds…evil…money, profits…so we anticipate, live calmy, but we have a healthy respect for malfeasance…I will write shortly on how I think we should manage in light of the fraud H5N1 (mostly do nothing) or if they did do some evil and how we should prudently prepare, respond.

END

“Nothing is over, nothing, you just don’t turn it off”! H5N1 avian bird flu fraud (maybe using GoF fake pandemic), they are trying hard to bring it, they say it ain’t over, they won’t let it be! We

will not let you free! We are not done, we have an election to steal November 2024, power to accumulate, freedoms & liberties to squash, populations to kill, a world to rule ‘AS WE SEE IT & DECIDE!’

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 23
 
READ IN APP
 

COVID failed, did not achieve ALL they sought!

Yes, they will AGAIN use the over-cycled largely ‘false-positive’ RT-PCR ‘process’ (that is ONLY to be used to amplify DNA for research etc.) to MANUFACTURE a fake fraud non-H5N1 pandemic & will tell you about asymptomatic transmission AGAIN and will then tell you that MODERNA & Pfizer, using the Malone, Kariko, Weissman et al. mRNA technology, have brought a mRNA gene-based vaccine that will code for the surface antigens of the H5N1 virus and will move to mandate. Yes, they will move again to steal an election and blow away election process and legality. They are in our faces, devising and creating a BIRD FLU pandemic, that is and will not be a pandemic. I fear too they can even try to confer lethality on H5N1 in lab (yet I discussed prior its near impossible for even lab made to come adapted to readily spread efficiently among human airways) so that it can kill to signal to us that they were right all along. Highly probable too. We are dealing with real monsters now. Problem for them is if they confer lethality on it, it will quickly arrive at an evolutionary ‘dead-end’ like SARS 1 in 2003 (8000 or so infections global, near 800 deaths, 10% mortality, in, out)…is H5N1 then devised to ‘scare’ us for something MORE? Their DISEASE X…is H5N1 not DISEASE X? Yet.

END

Based on Yahoo reporting & American blacks, in the NFL you can be a rapist, a murderer, AWOL father, wife & woman beater, pedophile, you could be a criminal, be arrested etc., but CHRISTIANITY is out!

can’t be in the NFL is a truth-teller of Christianity, this we learnt from the Kansas City Chiefs! When Super Bowl champion Harrison Butker spoke about his Christian faith and importance, NFL pounces

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERMAY 24
 
READ IN APP
 
The latest reports from Slay News
Turbo Cancer Deaths Surge in Vaxxed Teens & Young AdultsA dramatic surge of turbo cancer deaths is being recorded around the world among teenagers and young adults who have been vaccinated with Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE
Moderna CEO Told Fauci to ‘Mock Up an Outbreak’ Just before Covid Emerged, Leaked Video ShowsJust one month before the Covid pandemic was unleashed in 2019, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told Dr. Anthony Fauci to “mock up an outbreak” of a deadly virus, a leaked video has revealed.READ MORE
Top Democrat’s Support for Non-Citizen Voting Emerges Ahead of House VoteA top Democrat congressman’s long-help support for non-citizen voting has been revealed as the House prepares to vote on the issue.READ MORE
19 State AGs File Federal Lawsuit against Democrats’ ‘Radical’ Climate PoliciesThe attorneys general of 19 states have joined forces in a federal lawsuit against the Democrats’ “radical” green agenda policies which purport to “fight climate change.”READ MORE
Hunter Biden Arranged Business Meeting with Dad, Uncle, and Chinese Oligarch, New Text Messages ShowA newly emerged batch of text messages has revealed that Hunter Biden arranged a business meeting with a Chinese oligarch for key members of his family, including his father.READ MORE
FBI Raids Offices and Business Owned by Soros-Funded ProsecutorThe FBI has raided a business and offices owned by George Soros-funded Mississippi prosecutor Jody Owens.READ MORE
Leftists Outraged as Model Amber Rose Endorses Trump for 2024Model Amber Rose has provoked outrage among the Left after she publicly declared her endorsement for President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.READ MORE
Closing Arguments for Trump’s ‘Hush Money’ Trial Scheduled for Next WeekIt’s been a long and winding road of injustice in New York for President Donald Trump and his supporters.READ MORE
Biden Admin Orders Ban on Presidential Election Betting MarketsDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration is moving to ban betting markets from taking bets and publishing odds on the outcome of the presidential election.READ MORE
James Comey Warns Trump Will Gut FBI & DOJ If Re-Elected: ‘That’s a Danger for All Americans’Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey has appeared on leftist propaganda outlet MSNBC and warned viewers that President Donald Trump is planning to overhaul the corrupt, weaponized federal justice system.READ MORE
Biden’s Handlers Issue 9 Corrections to NAACP Speech in White House TranscriptJoe Biden’s faceless, unelected handlers made a staggering nine corrections to the White House transcript of the Democrat president’s gaffe-filled speech before the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP).READ MORE
Ohio Still Has No Plan to Include Biden’s Name on Ballot in NovemberDemocrat President Joe Biden’s name is currently not slated to be on Ohio’s presidential election ballot and the state has no plan to fix the issue before November.READ MORE
Vivek Ramaswamy Buys Major Stake in Leftist BuzzFeed, Vows ‘Shift in the Company’s Strategy’Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has bought up a large stake in the leftist media company Buzzfeed, according to financial filings.READ MORE

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

END

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

VENEZUELA

END   

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0841 UP .0030

USA/ YEN 156.95 DOWN 0.014 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2721 UP .0028

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3715 DOWN .0016 (CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 27.52 PTS OR 0.88%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 259.77 PTS OR 1.39%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.04 %

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 259.77 OR 1.39%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.52 PTS OR 0.88%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.04%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 457.11 PTS OR 1.17%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2340.75

silver:$30.59

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 104.77 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.204% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.998% DOWN 0 AND  3/ 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.346 DOWN 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.894 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.593 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

END

Euro/USA 1.0847 UP  0.0036 OR 36 basis points

USA/Japan: 156.98 DOWN .0.010 OR YEN IS UP 1 BASIS PTS

Great Britain/USA 4.2990 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0059 OR 59 BASIS pts  to 1.3674

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2428 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2620)

TURKISH LIRA:  32.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.998…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at  4.477% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.571 DOWN 1 in basis points  /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9400 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2337.40

SILVER AT 11;30: 30.45

London: CLOSED DOWN 21.64 PTS OR 0.26%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 2.05 PTS OR 0.01%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 7.26 PTS OR .09 %

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 65.10 OR 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 23.04 PTS OR 0.42 PTS

WTI Oil price  77.46 12EST/

Brent Oil:  81.92 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  89.42 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  59/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.593 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2990 DOWN 1/2 BASIS POINTS

Euro vs USA 1.0849 UP 0.0037    OR 37 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2738 UP 0.0045 OR 45 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.2990 UP 0 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.995%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.95 DOWN 0.041/ YEN UP 4 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3662 DOWN .0070 //CDN dollar UP 70 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 77.94

Brent OIL:  82.49

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.462

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.573%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT  4.9484

USA dollar index: 104.64 DOWN 40 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  89.52 UP 0  AND  49//100 roubles

GOLD  2,332.70 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.30 3;30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 3.94 PTS OR 0.01 %

NASDAQ UP 184.96 PTS OR 0.94 %

VOLATILITY INDEX: 11.97 DOWN 0.79 PTS OR 6.59%

GLD: $215.92 UP .20 OR 0.93%

SLV/ $27.74 UP .19 0.67 OR 0.69%

end

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 04:00 PM

After six straight weeks of ‘weakness’, US Macro Surprise data surged higher this week (Good News) – it’s biggest positive weekly shift since January.

Source: Bloomberg

And that ‘good news’ sent rate-cut expectations tumbling (hawkishly) lower

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq dramatically outperformed on the week while the S&P managed to rally today to get green for the week (both up for five straight weeks). Small Caps and The Dow were both down notably on the week. Hawkish Fed Minutes spooked stocks mid-week but NVDA’s earnings saved the tech-heavy indices…

After four straight weeks of gains, The Dow suffered its worst week since March 2023.

The Russell 2000 also saw its first weekly loss in the last five.

This was Nasdaq’s best week relative to Russell 2000 since Nov 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

…which pulled the Nasdaq/Russell pair up to critical resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensives have been leading in May so far and while both fell this week, Cyclicals underperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

The basket of ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks rallied for the fifth straight week to a new record high (obviously helped generously by NVDA).

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA refuses to dance to CSCO’s historical pattern and is headed to the moon…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, ‘most shorted’ stocks suffered their worst week since Nov 2023

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the week, but it was the short-end that notably lagged (2Y +12bps, 30Y +1bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield rallied up toward the 5.00% danger-zone (its biggest weekly yield increase in six weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) flattened bigly this week (-12bps – the biggest weekly flattening since February)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued to flip-flop, rallying this week after last week’s decline

Source: Bloomberg

Gold’s worst week in 8 months (since Sept 2023)

Source: Bloomberg

Silver was down on the week but outperformed gold, holding above $30

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied for the second week in a row, rebounding today to $69,000

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum dramatically outperformed bitcoin with its best week since July 2021

Source: Bloomberg

It was ETH’s best week relative to BTC since May 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a rebound today, oil prices ended lower on the week with WTI clinging to $78

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US equity market capitalization remains drastically decoupled from bank reserves at The Fed – a relationship that had held and reverted for much of the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

Have a great long weekend.

END

MORNING TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING/FOMC MINUTES

II USA DATA

Durable Goods Orders Suffer Yet Another Downward Revision

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 08:42 AM

Following yesterday’s ‘good’ news from PMIs, this morning we get ‘hard’ data confirming that ‘good’ news with preliminary April Durable Goods orders surging 0.7% MoM (vs -0.8% MoM expected). However, as is the way with Bidenomics, March’s +2.6% MoM surge in orders was revised down to a +0.8% MoM rise. This is the third month in a row of MoM gains for durable goods new orders and lifts the nominal YoY move to +1.3%…

Source: Bloomberg

Over the last 14 months, durable goods orders have been revised lower 9 times (and the downward revisions are considerably larger than the upward revisions)…

Source: Bloomberg

On a NSA basis, durable goods orders tumbled in April and on the freshly revised SA basis, it limped higher from 12 month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The Commerce Department’s report showed bookings for commercial aircraft, which are volatile from month to month, fell 8% after posting solid gains in the prior two months.

Boeing Co. reported only seven orders in April, down from 113 in March. The company’s executives have cautioned that output will be stop-and-start in the first half of 2024 as the company works to strengthen inspections for defects, perform more work in sequence and faces supplier shortages.

Once again it was war spending that saved the data – with defense +15.2% MoM vs non-defense -1.5% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

It was not just the headline data that was revised lower (prompting a ‘first glance’ beat for April) with Durable Ex Transports’ 0.2% MoM rise revised to unchanged in March and Orders non-defense ex-aircraft also revised from +0.1% MoM to -0.1% MoM.

Furthermore, Capital Goods shipments non-defense, ex-aircraft was revised from unchanged to -0.3% MoM – a big drop for a key signal of business spending and GDP.

How many times can a data series be downwardly revised before conspiracies about manipulated data flip from theory to actual ‘standard operating procedure’?

END

UMich Sentiment & Inflation Expectations Worsen In May (But Bounce From Flash Prints)

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 10:35 AM

Today’s final UMich sentiment survey data was expected to confirm the ugly preliminary data, but it seems that – thanks, we suspect, to lower gas prices – sentiment improved intra-month as inflation expectations fell.

Inflation expectations did actually rise MoM (from 2.9% to 3.2% for the next 12 months), but that was well down from the preliminary 3.5% print.

Source: Bloomberg

A similar picture was seen in the headline sentiment signals which dropped MoM but are considerably better than the plunge sentiment suffered in the preliminary print.

“While consumers recognize that realized inflation has eased substantially since 2022, a considerable share of consumers still express the burden that high prices exert on their lives,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

While the university’s final May consumer sentiment index improved from the preliminary reading, it still registered a notable 8.1-point decrease from April and stands at a six-month low of 69.1.

The current conditions gauge decreased to 69.6 in May from 79 in the prior months. A measure of expectations fell to 68.8 from 76.

Source: Bloomberg

In addition to high prices and borrowing costs that are raising concerns about the cost of living, respondents in the survey grew anxious about the labor market. They expect the jobless rate to rise and income growth to slow.

That represents a challenge for President Joe Biden in his bid for re-election.

Consumers also see less of a chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the coming year. Only 1 in 4 sees a rate cut now, compared with 37% in January.

Buying conditions for durable goods decreased to a one-year low, while consumers’ perception of their current financial situation was the worst in five months.

About four in 10 respondents blamed high prices for eroding living standards.These deteriorating expectations suggest that multiple factors pose downside risk for consumer spending.

TUCKER CARLSON…

END

a must read

(Mish Shedlock)

Competing Forces On Rent, Where Do We Put 8 Million Illegal Immigrants?

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 08:50 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MIshTalk.com,

Millions of immigrants keep pouring in. New residential construction has stalled and multi-family construction is in decline. Completions are rising, but is that enough housing?

More Than 8M Migrants Will Soon Be Living in the US

Axios reports Migrant Backlog to Hit 8 Million Under Biden by October

More than 8 million asylum seekers and other migrants will be living inside the U.S in legal limbo by the end of September — a roughly 167% increase in five years, according to internal government projections obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: That’s up from about 3 million in 2019 — a sign of how the underfunded and outdated U.S. immigration system can’t keep up with the rapidly growing migrant population driven by new border surges.

The backlog has left millions of people living in uncertainty about whether they’ll be allowed to stay in the U.S. — or facing deportation — often for years.

An estimated 2 million of the migrants in the backlog likely will be high-priority cases — mostly those who have orders to be deported to their home countries, and some with criminal records or pending criminal charges, according to the documents.

The New York Post reports More Than 8M Migrants Will Soon Be Living in the US, a 167% Increase in 5 Years

The Biden Administration anticipates that number will swell to 8 million by Oct. 1, according to Department of Homeland Security documents sent to Congress and obtained by Axios.

A quarter of the migrants caught in the backlog limbo — an estimated 2 million people — are those who have already been slated for deportation by a judge, as well as suspects facing criminal charges.

Because of the way the immigration system works, even after a judge has issued a ruling a migrant must be deported, they are able to appeal and challenge the deportation order. While that takes place, the deportation is put on hold, according to the legal help website nolo.com.

Where are they living and who is paying for the shelter?

Housing Starts

Housing Starts from Census Department, chart by Mish

Since late 2022 multi-family construction has fallen by about 50 percent. Single-family construction is up by about 25 percent. Total construction is flat.

Price of Rent

Rent rose another 0.4 percent in April. Food and beverages were flat with food at home declining but food away from home rising.

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

On May 15, I noted CPI Up 0.3 Percent With Rent Still Rising Steeply

Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March.  Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 consecutive months! 

The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, much more important, keep rising.

Only 8 to 9 percent of renters move each year. It’s been a huge mistake thinking new leases and finished construction would drive rent prices.

Rent Year-Over-Year

For well over two years, economists, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been expecting bigger drops in the year-over-year price of rent.

How much is illegal immigration fueling the price of shelter? I don’t have an answer and I have not seen anyone discuss this.

The competing forces I mentioned are completion of housing units, a lag in way the BLS calculates rents, and rising inventory of new homes for sale.

Homebuilders Have the Most Inventory Since May 2008, Big Discounts Coming

On the positive side, Homebuilders Have the Most Inventory Since May 2008, Big Discounts Coming

However, not many illegal immigrants can afford a house. And housing starts are tumbling, especially multi-family.

Inflationary Forces

Biden’s energy policy is inflationary; student loan cancellations are inflationary; the push for union wages are inflationary; the inflation reduction act is inflationary; tariffs (both Trump and Biden are guilty) are inflationary; deficit spending is inflationary; and the need to shelter millions of migrants is inflationary.

Meanwhile, there are signs the economy is slowing. For discussion, please see Discretionary Spending Tumbles at Target, Shares Drop 10 Percent

This is not a pretty mix.

end

JEFFRY TUCKER

(epoch times|)

Rage Against The Inflation Denialists

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 09:30 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Such strange times.

We are living through the most destructive bout of inflation in 45 years, one that threatens to become worse and perhaps just as ruinous in the long run as the last one.

And yet daily and for years, we’ve been told it’s not so bad and that it’s nearly over anyway.

How can we reconcile these two realities? They cannot both be true.

An image of verified accuracy has been circulating all over social media lately: A list showing the price increases from the end of 2019 to now at major fast-food outlets. It fits with your own experience. It indicates that in four years, your fast-food prices have doubled, so that your dollar is now worth 50 cents or even 25 cents. That’s an astounding level of inflation by any standard.

The validity of this is easily verified, and it certainly fits with our experience. And not only with fast food. It’s true of all food out—and food at home, too. In my own estimation, trying my best to recall prices from late 2019, I, too, have a sense of inflation of 50 percent to 100 percent or more.

But there is a major problem.

The government says otherwise. Looking at official inflation data, what we see is something very different. It shows food-away-from-home prices going up by about 26 percent and prices in general up by 21 percent. Setting the index at 100 for January 2020, we end up with indexes of 126 and 121, respectively, today.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

What does one do when official data depart so dramatically from lived experience? As Chico Marx said, who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes? It seems to me that your own eyes are a better guide.

So what in the world is wrong with government statistics on inflation? It’s a huge combination of factors. In the most rudimentary form, the inflation calculation used by the government no longer consists of a basket of goods and services carried over from one period to the next. Starting in 1996 and following, economists started pushing “hedonic” adjustments to the index. What does this word mean? It is from the Greeks meaning pleasure.

The idea is that consumers are getting more pleasure from purchases, so the price needs adjustment based on that. In the most obvious case, your television today is vastly more functional than it was 30 years ago, so it makes no sense to only compare the prices between them. The new prices need to be weighted and adjusted for such quality changes.

In the end, however, this concession unleashed the statisticians to manipulate figures in ways that are beyond all plausibility. The term hedonic ended up meaning that inflation data should be adjusted at the pleasure of government statisticians. As a result, hardly anyone can keep up with all the razzmatazz that the Bureau of Labor Statistics pumps out. All we can really know is that it is all a big fakeroo.

But it really does matter for a range of issues. For example, economists like to look at real versus nominal statistics because real numbers make little sense in inflationary times. For example, if you are looking at retail sales, you need to know the inflation number. One hundred dollars spent on hamburgers four years ago means $200 today, but you cannot then say the retail sales numbers have doubled. In fact, the dollar is merely worth half, so retail sales are flat.

An accurate number is also important for adjusting tax tables and cost-of-living adjustments. Failing to capture inflation accurately amounts to a modernized version of coin clipping that benefits the government at the expense of the people.

The website ShadowStats.com offers alternatives. It calculates inflation in the way it was done in the 1980s. It comes up with astounding results that produce inflation numbers that are generally twice the official data. This strikes me as far more accurate. You can see an explanation of this on its website.

And yet even that doesn’t exhaust all the problems.

The consumer price index (CPI) does not include interest rate costs, thus excluding all servicing of debt, including mortgages and credit cards.

The CPI does not accurately render housing or rent thanks to a crazy complicated formula called owners’ equivalent rent. It is utterly bonkers on issues of health insurance premiums. It uses the trick of adjusting downward all that you spend based on how much you consume, which means that the CPI will register a deflation even if, with your own eyes, you can see your premiums rising and rising.

The CPI also cannot accurately track shrinkflation. The bureaucrats might pretend to do so, but there is no evidence that they do so or even have the capability of doing so on every product even if they wanted to. It also does not track the millions of hidden fees that people pay today on nearly every service or product you can imagine. It’s not possible to buy tickets anymore without paying some delivery or service fee. And airlines have become infamous for crazy charges imposed at the last instant before you are ready to go through security, and the prices seem arbitrary. Suddenly you are paying $75 merely for having a small overhead bag.

This is just the beginning of the problems with official inflation data. This is also why it is a far more reliable method just to look at the same product today and five years ago and compare. And yet not even that fully works either. The hamburgers at your favorite fast-food place are actually smaller and with less meat. You have surely noticed that your restaurant is short-changing you on the pricier ingredients and piling up on the cheaper stuff.

The result of all this creates an internal sense of bitterness. Here we are living through a disastrous period in which the American standard of living is plummeting dramatically. Everyone senses it. And yet at this exact time, we are surrounded by experts who confidently assure us that all is well and that the worst is over. They have been saying this for four years.

And Wall Street is nothing if not overjoyed by this. My goodness, traders are even expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the coming months and are buying more stocks at high prices in anticipation. This is addictive behavior, bumping from one fix of easy money to another. If this happens, it risks kicking off another big wave of inflation in the coming few years.

It’s one thing to observe that the experts are lying. We know that. What is frustrating is knowing that and yet being denied the truth at the same time.

END

HUGE STORY

holders of AAA CRE backed debt hit with losses!!

(zero hedge)

First Time Since GFC: Holders Of AAA ‘CRE-Backed’ Debt Hit With Losses

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 03:20 PM

Investors holding a tranche of top-rated debt backed by commercial real estate have suffered losses for the first time since the housing meltdown collapsed the economy 16 years ago. This alarming development signals a worsening multi-year downturn in the CRE space, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle and plummeting office tower values nationwide.

Bloomberg first reported that CMBS strategists at Barclays pointed out that buyers of the AAA portion of a $308 million note backed by the mortgage on the 1740 Broadway building in midtown Manhattan received less than three-quarters of their initial investment in recent weeks after the loan was dumped at a sizeable discount. All low-tier creditors were wiped out. 

“Now that we’ve seen the first commercial mortgage-backed securities get hit, other AAA bonds are bound to see losses,” Lea Overby, a CMBS strategist at Barclays, wrote in a note, adding, “These losses may be a sign that the commercial real estate market is starting to hit rock bottom.”

“With about $700 billion of non-agency CMBS outstanding and another $3 trillion of commercial mortgages on bank balance sheets, even a modest uptick in losses could weigh on the financial system for years,” Bloomberg journos said. They were quick to note, “To be clear, no one is predicting a repeat of 2008, when bad mortgages, mostly residential, nearly brought down the financial system.” 

On Wednesday, the latest FOMC minutes showed a “deterioration in conditions in domestic CRE markets or a sharp tightening in financial conditions.” 

Recent data from Moody’s Ratings showed the share of delinquent office packaged into CMBS topped 6.4% in April, the highest level since June 2018. 

What’s troubling is that $52 billion, or 31%, of all office loans in CMBS, were in dire straits in March. That’s up 16% from a year ago, according to KBRA Analytics. The firm said some cities are facing more stress than others, including Chicago and Detroit. 

Here is the latest data from real estate firm Trepp: Owners are quickly falling behind on office loan payments. 

Across the entire CRE space, a $1 trillion debt maturity wall is due later this year. 

Mortgage Bankers Association notes that $929 billion—20% of the $4.7 trillion total—in commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors are coming due this year. The figure is up 28% from 2023 and inflated by amendments and extensions from prior years. Nevertheless, borrowers are now having to bite the bullet and pay up or default.

It’s extremely rare for AAA-rated tranches to take a hit, making the situation on the 1740 Broadway building an eye-opener for more CMBS debt with a high concentration of single-office loans to experience losses. The CRE storm is far from over. 

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

END

House Panel Approves Measure To Rehire Troops Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The House Armed Services Committee adopted an amendment in the annual defense policy bill on May 22 that, if cleared through Congress, would force the Pentagon to rehire U.S. troops who were fired for refusing a COVID-19 vaccine.

The measure was adopted late on May 22 by lawmakers on the panel, who marked up and advanced their version of the annual appropriations bill, authorizing a defense budget of $849.8 billion.

The 2025 bill, titled the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act, will serve as the base text for forthcoming debate as it makes its way through Congress.

On May 22, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who offered the amendment on rehiring veterans separated under the vaccine mandate policy, confirmed its adoption.

During the debate, she said the measure would direct the Pentagon to develop a strategy to recruit from among the thousands of servicemembers who “were made veterans overnight” under the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

“This amendment seeks to address the loss of skilled, experienced personnel who were willing and able to serve their country and overcome the resistance of the Department in recruiting from this population,” Ms. Mace said ahead of a panel vote.

The Department has so far failed to recruit a significant number of servicemembers separated under the COVID mandate. This is unacceptable.

‘Vaccines Save Lives’

Offering a counter perspective after Ms. Mace spoke, Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) said servicemembers are required to get a broad range of vaccines, including region-specific vaccines, when deployed to certain areas.

“Vaccines save lives,” Mr. Carbajal told lawmakers on the panel.

“I must say, it’s bewildering how the COVID-19 vaccine has become the boogeyman issue, but in reality, it is a readiness issue. We currently vaccinate our forces to protect them and to protect their fellow troops.”

Congress ended the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate in 2022 and last year directed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to create a path back to service for those who were separated for refusing the vaccine.

On April 30, Mr. Austin told the panel that he didn’t know of any efforts to recruit servicemembers who had been previously let go under the mandates. Ms. Mace said on May 22 that this was “disappointing.”

The measure faces an uncertain future later this year when the committee meets with the Democrat-led Senate Armed Services Committee to reconcile differences in the National Defense Authorization Act before full passage in Congress.

According to the Pentagon, during fiscal year 2023, the military services collectively missed recruiting goals by about 41,000 recruits. This was attributed to a “smaller eligible population.”

Other reasons stated included the attractiveness of jobs in the private sector, younger generations having “low trust” in the military and following other career paths, and younger people having fewer families who served, decreasing their wish to follow suit.

Committee Advances Draft Defense Spending Bill

House Armed Services Committee Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said the 2025 defense spending bill considers the quality of life for servicemembers, boosting compensation money, improving housing, expanding health care and child care access, and other issues that directly affect troops and their families.

This is in addition to strengthening the military to face challenges posed by China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, according to Mr. Rogers.

“Strengthening our military and investing in our defense is how we send our adversaries a message that we will not be intimidated,” he added.

The lawmakers authorized a defense budget of $849.8 billion in line with the debt ceiling agreement made earlier this year.

“For the first time in decades, the bill before us today carries a different short title. It is the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act. We did that to underscore the tremendous gains this bill makes toward improving the quality of life for all of our service members and their families,” Mr. Rogers said in a statement.

“No service members should have to live in squalid conditions. No military family should have to rely on food stamps to feed their children. And no one serving this country should have to wait weeks to see a doctor or mental health specialist. This bill goes a long way toward fixing those problems.”

He welcomed the bill’s passage through the committee.

The bill was introduced on April 18 by Mr. Rogers and ranking Democratic member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) to serve as the base text for the 2025 defense spending bill.

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

Loose Talk About The End Of Everything: VDH

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

After a recent summit between new partners China and Russia, General Secretary Xi Jinping and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin issued an odd one-sentence communique: “There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought.”

No one would disagree, even though several officials of both hypocritical governments have previously threatened their neighbors with nuclear attacks.

But still, why did the two feel the need to issue such a terse statement—and why now?

Rarely has the global rhetoric of mass annihilation reached such a crescendo as the present, as existential wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza.

In particular, Putin at least believes that he is finally winning the Ukraine conflict. Xi seems to assume that conventional ascendant Chinese military power in the South China Sea has finally made the absorption of Taiwan practicable.

They both believe that the only impediment to their victories would be an intervention from the U.S. and the NATO alliance, a conflict that could descend into mutual threats to resort to nuclear weapons.

Thus the recent warnings of Xi and Putin.

Almost monthly, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un continues his weary threats to use his nuclear arsenal to destroy South Korea or Japan.

A similarly monotonous, pro-Hamas Turkish president, Recep Erdogan, regularly threatens Armenians with crazy talk of repeating the “mission of our grandfathers.” And he occasionally warns Israelis and Greeks that they may one day wake up to Turkish missiles raining down upon their cities.

More concretely, for the first time in history, Iran attacked the homeland of Israel. It launched the largest wartime array of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones in modern history—over 320 projectiles.

Iran’s theocrats simultaneously claim they are about ready to produce nuclear weapons. And, of course, since 1979, Iran has periodically promised to wipe Israel off the map and half the world’s Jews with it.

Most ignore these crazy threats and write them off as the braggadocio of dictators. But as we saw on October 7, the barbarity of human nature has not changed much from the premodern world, whether defined by savage beheading, mutilations, murdering, mass rape, torture, and hostage taking of Israeli elderly, women, and children.

But what has radically transformed are the delivery systems of mass death—nuclear weapons, chemical gases, biological agents, and artificial-intelligence-driven delivery systems.

Oddly, the global reaction to the promise of Armageddon remains one of nonchalance. Most feel that such strongmen rant wildly but would never unleash weapons of civilizational destruction.

Consider that there are as many autocratic nuclear nations (e.g., Russia, China, Pakistan, North Korea, and perhaps Iran) as democratic ones (U.S., Britain, France, Israel, and India). Only Israel has an effective anti-ballistic missile dome. And the more the conventional power of the West declines, the more in extremis it will have to rely on a nuclear deterrent—at a time when it has no effective missile defense of its homelands.

In a just-released book, The End of Everything, I wrote about four examples of annihilation—the classical city-state of Thebes, ancient Carthage, Byzantine Constantinople and Aztec Tenochtitlán—in which the unimaginable became all too real.

In all these erasures, the targeted, naïve states believed that their illustrious pasts, rather than a realistic appraisal of their present inadequate defenses, would ensure their survival.

All hoped that their allies—the Spartans, the anti-Roman Macedonians, the Christian nations of Western Europe, and the subject cities of the Aztecs—would appear at the eleventh hour to stave off their defeat.

Additionally, these targeted states had little understanding of the agendas and capabilities of the brilliantly methodic killers outside their walls—the ruthless wannabe philosopher Alexander the Great, the literary patron Scipio Aemilianus, the self-described intellectual Mehmet II, and the widely read Hernán Cortés—who all sought to destroy utterly rather than merely defeat their enemies.

These doomed cities and nations were reduced to rubble or absorbed by the conquerors. Their populations were wiped out or enslaved, and their once-hallowed cultures, customs, and traditions lost to history. The last words of the conquered were usually variations of, “It can’t happen here.”

If the past is any guide to the present, we should take heed that what almost never happens in war can certainly still occur.

When killers issue wild, even lunatic, threats, we should nonetheless take them seriously.

We should not count on friends or neutrals to save our civilization. Instead, Americans should build defense systems over the skies of our homeland, secure our borders, ensure our military operates on meritocracy, cease wild deficit spending and borrowing, and rebuild both our conventional and nuclear forces.

Otherwise, we will naively—and fatally—believe that we are magically exempt when the inconceivable becomes all too real.

*  *  *

Victor Davis Hanson’s The End of Everything. How Wars Descend into Annihilation was just released by Basic Books.

END

Will The Trump Jury Exercise Blind Justice Or Willful Blindness?

FRIDAY, MAY 24, 2024 – 02:20 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column on Fox.com on the closure of the government and defense cases in the Trump trial. It is clear that the government is going to achieve its objective in avoiding a direct verdict and giving this matter to the jury, which it hopes that the paucity of direct evidence of a crime will be overcome with an abundance of hostility to Donald Trump.

As I previously have written, I am still hopeful that these jurors will vindicate the New York legal system with at least a hung jury. In the end, we will see if a Manhattan jury will exercise blind justice or willful blindness.

Here is the column:

With closing arguments scheduled for Tuesday, May 28, the prosecution of former President Donald Trump will finally head to a jury. Judge Juan Merchan has refused every opportunity to bring an end to this politically manufactured prosecution. Now it will be up to 12 New Yorkers to do what neither the court nor the prosecutors were willing to do: adhere to the rule of law regardless of the identity of the defendant.

Merchan has allowed the government to bring back into life a dead misdemeanor and convert it into 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. To accomplish this legal regeneration, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has vaguely referenced a variety of crimes that Trump allegedly was trying to conceal through the business record violations.

The problem is that he has left the secondary crime mired in uncertainty to the point that experts on various networks are still debating what the underlying theory is in the case.

Indeed, Bragg is expected to finally state with clarity what he is alleging  …  at the closing arguments of the case.

In the meantime, the prosecution is pushing to make it easier for the jury to convict. First, they have vaguely referenced a variety of possible offenses from tax to election violations. Bragg initially laid out four possible predicate crimes. It is down to three – a tax crime and violations of state or federal election law.

Merchan has ruled that the jury does not have to agree on what crimes were being covered up so the jury could literally have three different views of what happened in the case and still convict Trump.

Prosecutors are also seeking to effectively shorten the playing field by allowing the jurors to convict on a lower standard of proof for the key term in using “unlawful means.” The defense wants the jury instructed that it must find that such use of “unlawful means” was done with willful intent.

The prosecutors do not want to use that higher standard. For the defense, it is effectively reducing the field to the end zone to make it easier for the prosecution to score.

In the last few days, the Bragg strategy has come into sharper focus in one respect. Bragg is not counting on the evidence or the law. He is counting on the jury.  Call it the Lawrence O’Donnell factor.

After Michael Cohen imploded on the stand in the trial, even experts and hosts on MSNBC and CNN stated that his admissions and contradictions were devastating. Cohen is not only accused of committing perjury in his testimony, but he matter-of-factly detailed how he stole tens of thousands of dollars from the Trump organization.

After being disbarred and convicted as a serial perjurer, Cohen waited for the statute of limitations to run on larceny to admit that he stole as much as $50,000 by pocketing money intended for a contractor.

Liberal commentators acknowledged the fact that Cohen had committed a far more serious offense than the converted misdemeanor against Trump (but was never charged). Yet, one figure stepped forward to assure the public that all was well.

MSNBC host O’Donnell said that he watched the testimony and that Cohen did wonderfully. Keep in mind that Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche asked Cohen point blank: “So you stole from the Trump organization, right?” Cohen answered unequivocably: “Yes, sir.”

O’Donnell, however, rushed outside to declare that Cohen was merely acquiring a bonus that he thought that he deserved as a type of “self-help”:

“Cohen [was trying] to rebalance the bonus he thought he deserved. And it still came out as less than the bonus he thought he deserved and the bonus he had gotten the year before.”

In other words, he first determined that his employer should pay him more and then elected to lie to his employer and steal the money. It is akin to New Jersey Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez claiming, in his nearby trial, that the gold bars and cash found in his home were just his effort to secure a well-deserved bonus for his public service.

O’Donnell was widely mocked for his galactic spin. However, he reflects the greatest danger for the Trump team.

O’Donnell was showing a type of willful blindness; a refusal to acknowledge even the most shocking disclosures in the trial.

Some of the jurors admitted that MSNBC is one on their news sources and they exhibit the same all-consuming O’Donnell obsession with Trump.

If so, they could listen to contradiction to contradiction and simply not recognize them like the MSNBC host.

For some, Cohen could burst into flames on the stand but their eyes will not move from the person behind the defense table.

Many viewers have been raised in an echo chamber of news coverage where they avoid opposing facts on both the left and the right. They actively tailor their news to fulfill a narrative or viewpoint.

A jury of O’Donnell’s peers would convict Trump even if the Angel Gabriel appeared at trial as a defense character witness.

It is the ultimate jury instruction not from the court but from the community. With jurors “back in the world” for six days and going to holiday cookouts and events, they will likely hear much of that social judgment and the need to “rebalance” the political ledger through this case.

The King Report May 24, 2024 Issue 7250Independent View of the News
May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50.9, 49.9 expected, prior 50; Services 54.9, 51.2 expected, 51.3 prior; Composite PMI 54.4 (highest in two years), 51.2 expected, 51.3 prior.
 
US Yields Spike as Data Fuel Bets Fed on Hold – BBG 10:44 ET
 
Treasury Yields Plow Higher as Traders See First Fed Cut Later – BBG 10:44 ET
Overnight index swaps contracts… now fully price in a full quarter-point cut in December versus November a day earlier
 
An Overnight Index Swap is a type of interest rate swap where the floating leg payments are linked to an overnight interest rate index.  It is typically a fixed-for-floating swap, where one party pays a fixed rate and receives the floating rate, while the other party does the opposite
https://www.traditiondata.com/market-education/overnight-index-swaps/
 
CMBS Buyers Suffer First Loss on AAA Debt Since Financial Crisis – BBG
    Top bonds backed by loan for 1740 Broadway in NYC repaid 74%
    Industry analysts warn of more pain to come in safest CMBS
Buyers of the AAA portion of a $308 million note backed by the mortgage on the 1740 Broadway building in midtown Manhattan got less than three-quarters of their original investment back earlier this month after the loan was sold at a steep discount. It’s the first such loss of the post-crisis era, according to Barclays Plc. All five groups of lower ranking creditors were wiped out.
     Market watchers say the fact the pain is reaching all the way up to top-ranked holders… is a testament to how deeply distressed pockets of the US commercial real estate market have become…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisis
 
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index -0.23; +0.13 expected; prior revised to -0.04 from +0.15 (Bidenomics!)
 
US Initial Jobless Claims 215k, 220k expected; Continuing Claims 1.794m, 1.7932m expected
 
US April New Homes Sales 634k (-4.7% m/m), 678k expected, prior revised to 665k from 693k (Bidenomics!) Median price $433,500; -1.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
 
Thursday’s King Report: After the equity market adjusts to the most important financial news in history, Nvidia results, saner angels will adjust their holdings to the new reality about the Fed’s disposition on rate hikes.
 
ESMs had a protracted A-B-C rally (on Nvidia) that stretched from the Nikkei opening until they hit a daily high of 368.25 at 8:32 ET.  ESMs then plunged to a daily low of 5316.75 at 10:56 ET.  The manipulation for the European close took ESMs to 5341.50 at 11:51 ET.  After trading sideways for about 50 minutes, ESMs broke down near 12:42 ET; ESMs tumbled and eventually hit a daily low of 5273.50 at 15:12 ET.  The late manipulation took ESMs to 5289.00 at 15:50 ET.  ESMs eased into the close.
 
USMs traded mostly positive but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they tumbled after the S&P Global US PMIs were released at 9:45 ET.  USMs hit a daily high of 117 21/32 at 8:29 ET, and then tumbled to a daily low of 116 15/32 at 10:20 ET.
 
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie: Credit spreads have only been as tight as they are today twice before – in 2000 and 2007. Bottom decile of all time. High-Yield priced for no defaults even though business bankruptcies have surged +35% in the past year to the highest level since 2020Q3.
https://x.com/EconguyRosie/status/1793653630240788578
 
@charliebilello: The Yield on US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds is now only 0.88% higher than the Yield on Treasury Bonds, the narrowest spread since September 2021.  https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ
    “The investment grade credit spread, which is almost the lowest it’s ever been, will be dead wrong. It’s just a matter of time.” – Jamie Dimon
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Nvidia rallied as much as 12.0%; and is worth more than the entire German stock market (MarketWatch)
NVDA carried Nasdaq to a 0.9% gain and the S&P 500 Index to a modest gain near noon ET.
Precious metals and industrial commodities declined sharply.
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJIA and DJTA declined sharply; Bonds declined sharply.
The market sees no rate cut until December.
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How divided is the Fed on interest rate policy?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5288.88
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low5323.18; 5256.93
 
The father and son Hamas rapists – Terrorists describe going house to house carrying out sex attacks and murder: ‘One screamed and cried… father raped her then I did then my cousin did then father killed her’  https://t.co/JPVVfZn19K
 
GOP Sen. @SenTomCotton: The Gaza pier is a disaster and a waste of money.  Joe Biden is putting our troops in serious danger to please the pro-Hamas wing of his party.
 
Fed Balance Sheet: – $4.806B; Reserves at the Fed: +$21.047B
 
Today – The usual suspects want to play for the Friday Rally.  However, the adjustment to a new Fed interest rate policy commenced yesterday.  It is inconceivable that the adjustment occurred in 1 session.  Trading could be very light due to high absenteeism for the 3-day Memorial Day Weekend.
 
The short-term equity top that was a high probability after Nvidia’s results might now become more than a short-term trading top.
 
NQMs are +25.25; ESMs are +7.00; USMs are +3/32; and Gold is -6.80 at 20:45 ET.  
 
Expected economic data: Apr Durable Goods -0.8% m/m, Ex-Trans +0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air +0.1%, Shipments 0.1%; May UM Sentiment 67.7, Current Conditions 68.8, Expectations 67.0, 1-year Inflation 3.4%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.1% Fed Gov. Waller 9:35 ET
 
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5170; 100-day MA: 5058; 150-day MA: 4873; 200-day MA: 4754
DJIA 50-day MA: 38,899; 100-day MA: 38,621; 150-day MA: 37,511; 200-day MA: 36,698
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index (5267.84 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4619.92 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5018.14 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5232.86 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5326.93 triggers a buy signal
 
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: A Turkish man who crossed into Jacumba, CA illegally w/ a group of other Turkish men told me he paid $10k to a cartel & expressed shock at how easy it was to cross the U.S. border with no resistance, telling me Americans should be “worried” about security & who is crossing.
https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1793635135021355264
 
Daily Mail: Biden’s daughter Ashley has finally admitted her diary about ‘showers with dad’ as well as fears she was ‘molested’ is real. So, MAUREEN CALLAHAN demands: What IS the truth, Joe?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13448411/joe-biden-daughter-ashley-showers-dad-molested-truth.html
 
Can you imagine the US regime media response if Ivanka Trump made such accusations in a diary?
 
@America1stLegal: EXPLOSIVE LITIGATION DOCS: We sued DOD and uncovered a secret Obama memo on presidential records which shows that Jack Smith is the one subverting the law.   The directive, which legally binds DOJ, vests POTUS with sole authority to determine which records are his.
https://x.com/America1stLegal/status/1793720339299754120
     This secretive memo established by the Obama Administration — and used through the Trump and Biden Administrations — confirms the government may have already had originals of the alleged classified documents involved in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s sham prosecution against President Trump through the Presidential Information Technology Community (PITC).
    In October 2014, Russian hackers breached the Executive Office of the President (EOP)’s network.  In response, President Obama created, via executive action, PITC.
https://x.com/America1stLegal/status/1793720347260543212
    PITC includes representatives of the DOD and Homeland Security, among others.   PITC effectively establishes that the President controls all the information he receives through the PITC network…
    This memo reveals that the White House secretly created and apparently maintains an information technology community that enforced Obama’s executive order to ensure that presidents could store their records on DOD servers without losing control.
    What it means is that the federal government has preserved and retained all EOP records on its servers, and therefore, consistent with Obama’s order, it likely possesses a substantial amount, if not all, of President Trump’s classified documents…
    This revelation cuts a knife through the entire indictment as it proves that many, if not all, of the documents President Trump is accused of unlawfully retaining were and are currently still retained by the Executive Branch and stored on DOD servers.
    Further, because of the PITC memo’s aggressive posture that all records the President receives are subject to his control, President Trump had a clear basis for believing he had the authority to possess copies of records stored at the DOD. It would, therefore, be impossible for Trump to have retained records “without authorization” and “willfully” and “knowingly,” as the Jack Smith indictment suggests.
    Lastly, the secret document uncovered by AFL raises the question of why armed agents ever raided President Trump’s personal residence. The Special Counsel should have first determined what relevant records existed on the DOD systems. The failure to do so, as the Biden administration clearly knew and enforced PITC, smacks of politicization and dangerous government overreach.   
    Moreover, PITC explains how the President controls all the records: “This memorandum is intended to maintain the President’s exclusive control of the information resources and information systems provided to the President, Vice President, and EOP.”  https://x.com/America1stLegal/status/1793732002132488694
 

 

GREG HUNTER 

Kill Trump, Inflation Up, China Sells & CV19 Vax Wake-Up

By Greg Hunter On May 24, 2024 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups1 Comment

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 635 5.24.24)

The Biden Administration had a plan to kill Trump.  This seems like a huge conspiracy theory, but it is not.  New documents recently released, show the FBI and DOJ gave themselves the right to use “deadly force” on President Trump, his family and his Secret Service detail.  This was a “raid,” and you can use deadly force in a “raid.”  Experts say it was all to spark a gunfight and kill Trump.  There was no reason for a “raid,” as Trump and his attorneys were cooperating.  There was zero chance of anyone getting hurt or resisting the FBI and DOJ.  AG Merrick Garland says this was just “part of standard operations.”  Experts like former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino calls BS on the entire Mar-a-Lago operation.  Bongino thinks the intent was to try to kill Trump.  Trump thinks the same thing as he said this week, “The Biden DOJ was authorized to shoot me.”  It was, and that is a fact.

China sold a record $53 billion in US Treasury debt in the first quarter of 2024.  It is also buying record amounts of commodities, and that includes gold and silver.  Maybe China can see the inflation coming, and it does not want to be paid back in dollars that are losing buying power at an alarming rate.  “Losing buying power” also means inflation, and Americans are getting hit with lots of it in every aspect of their lives.  This is why the Fed is NOT cutting interest rates.

The CV19 bioweapon vax wake-up call is picking up speed, and there is no stopping it.  Perfectly healthy young people are dropping like flies.  22-year-old Brody Cameron dropped dead unexpectedly in New Zealand recently.  Cameron was a rising rugby star, and his family is devastated.  Nobody will mention that this was, yet another, CV19 vax murder.  14 billion injections of the CV19 vax were given worldwide, and the day is coming when everyone will know the crimes done against them.  The injections did not help a single person.  Japan’s most senior cancer doctor recently called the CV19 shots “essentially, murder.”  There is no stopping the CV19 bioweapon wake-up call. 

There is much more in the 53-minute newscast.

There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm.

You can get more information at Sat123.com or BeReady123.com.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 5.24.24.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

sawatchdog.com/kill-trump-inflation-up-china-sells-cv19-vax-wake-up/

After the Wrap-Up: 

Precious metals and financial expert Bill Holter will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  This is the first time Holter has issued a warning about the extreme rise in both gold and silver that is coming and cannot be stopped.  Holter will lay out his case for a metals price explosion coming soon.

END

SEE YOU TOMORROW

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